USAGOLD Discussion - January 2003

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Black Blade
(01/01/2003; 00:01:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93093)
Happy New Year!

May this New Year be "Golden". Cheers!

- Black Blade
mikal
(01/01/2003; 00:33:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93094)
@RPowell
I have gathered some of the sites containing documents, editorials, opinions and even testimonials from Chris Powell and Bill Murphy regarding a key player which should directly or indirectly be helpful. I haven't read most of these yet as they came into my possession about five days ago. But what I have seen so far is not only logical, but compelling. I have also been fortunate to have become very familiar with several of the key individuals authoring some of these documents through nationwide radio interviews and worldwide shortwave radio, as well as several publications prior to the birth of this forum. I have eight URL's here now and I believe a web search using some keywords may produce more, including possibly archived radio broadcasts or transcripts. But suffice it to say that there is a LARGE body of evidence, just in these links. Anyone who wants more info., I hope the site proprietor can provide my email. If not, I will post more instructions. Thank you. Happy New Year and Peace to All
elevator guy
(01/01/2003; 01:28:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93095)
@Sir Black Blade, post 93088
Sir Black Blade, if the US trounces Iraq, and cheap oil fuels our economy, might the Dow and Nasduck stage a mild comeback that would render safe havens such as gold less attractive than they are now, at the start of the war?

I remember hoping Y2K would send gold soaring, and it did not. Also, the Washington Agreement only caused a temporary interest in gold, as it subsided back to its manipulated depression after a bit.

Back during those days the USD was stronger, Dow + Nasduck were way up, so admittedly its a different ball game now. But still, if cheap oil can prop up our house of cards for a while, the cabal will stay in control for a while longer, no?
Goldrush
(01/01/2003; 02:20:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93096)
Business is Booming
Rehnquist: More Bankruptcy Judges Needed

Wed January 01, 2003 12:07 AM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Congress needs to name more bankruptcy judges in the wake of the sharp increase in the number of bankruptcy filings, Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist said on Wednesday.

In his 2002 Year-End Report on the Federal Judiciary, Rehnquist said no new bankruptcy judgeships had been created since 1992 although the number of cases filed has increased by more than 570,000 since then.

He said each bankruptcy judge now handles an average of 4,777 cases, compared to an average of 2,998 in 1992.

Federal courts experienced record levels of activity in 2001, and U.S. bankruptcy courts were significantly affected.

Rehnquist said the number of filings in bankruptcy courts grew 8 percent in the year to an all-time high of 1,547,669 cases filed. He said bankruptcy filings have risen 72.5 percent since 1993.

Rehnquist, who traditionally uses his year-end report to call on Congress to keep adequate staffing levels in the courts, once again urged lawmakers to take action.

"I urge the 108th Congress to act on all of the pending requests for new judgeships during its next session," he said, noting that the Judicial Conference had requested Congress establish 24 new bankruptcy judgeships along with more appeals judgeships and district court judgeships.
Goldrush
(01/01/2003; 02:28:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93097)
Consumer less confident
Washington, Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in December for the sixth time in seven months as unemployment threatens to undermine spending and U.S. economic growth.

The Conference Board's index of sentiment decreased this month to 80.3, down from 84.9 in November and just above the nine- year low of 79.6 in October. Economists had expected a reading of 86, according to the median of 41 forecasts. The present conditions index fell to the lowest since January 1994.
Goldrush
(01/01/2003; 02:33:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93098)
Lula sworn in today
BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) - Cuban leader Fidel Castro arrived Tuesday in Brazil to attend the inauguration of Luiz Inacio da Silva, the country's first leftist president in 40 years.

Castro, dressed in trademark green uniform, was driven in a motorcade to a Brasilia hotel amid tight security.

``I am happy to be in Brazil, and happy to say that Jan. 1 is no longer a Cuban monopoly,'' Castro told reporters. Jan. 1 is the anniversary of the Cuban revolution that brought Castro to power.

A serious leg infection kept Castro out of sight in Cuba for nearly two weeks in December, but he showed no difficulty walking as he entered the hotel.

Silva takes over Wednesday for outgoing president Fernando Henrique Cardoso in an inaugural ceremony expected to attract presidents from at least six other Latin American countries and 100,000 or more Brazilians.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was also expected to attend. But the four-week-old strike in Venezuela aimed at ousting him was expected to delay him.

Earlier this month, Chavez said until the last minute that he would attend an economic summit in Brasilia, but never showed up.

Silva, a 57-year-old former union leader, will govern Latin America's largest country and counts Castro and Chavez among his friends.
Black Blade
(01/01/2003; 03:05:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93099)
Re: elevator guy

"Cheap oil" is only part of the equation. It is more a matter of "cheap energy". The fuel of choice is NatGas for electricity generation as nuclear and coal fired power plants are no longer being built and there is no more room for additional hydroelectric power generation. The new generation of power plants are not dual fuel facilities, that is they need NatGas for fuel. Higher NatGas and electricity rates pushed the US economy over the edge and that more than higher priced oil nudged the economy toward recession. Another problem is the decaying energy infrastructure in the US. Transmission lines and pipelines are several decades old and energy companies are having a difficult time attracting financing for upgrades and exploration for hydrocarbon sources. Many planned power plants will not be built in the near term due to recent credit rating problems resulting from the Enron fraud and continuing litigation between the state of California and energy marketers. Then there is the lack of access to federal lands that offer the best opportunity to search out hydrocarbon targets and environmental restrictions. The lack of sufficient drilling for NatGas in the US ensures that we will experience electricity shortages for several years unless we continue to be fortunate enough to have a deepening recession (hopefully a full blown depression) and warmer than normal winter temperatures and cooler than normal summer temperatures providing another fleeting chance at rebuilding reserves and inventories.

Once Iraq is conquered and the oil fields are secured Iraq would require a lot of investment and time to rebuild oil infrastructure after many years of neglect and even then it is likely that only about 2 million bbl/day of extra oil could be squeezed out under the best of circumstances. Many of the world's oil fields have already passed peak production (such as North Sea two years ago and Russia in 1989) and exploration results in the Caspian Sea region have so far been disappointing. Reserves are being replaced by tapping smaller and more costly fields. Simply put there are no more "super giants" being discovered � at least not in the last 30+ years. The ME "super giants" are being squeezed to their maximum potential. Then there is the possibility that OPEC could impose enough marginal quota restrictions to negate any additions of Iraqi oil. As it is there is widespread quota cheating and still supply is insufficient to lower oil prices. Saudi is about the only producer with any excess capacity (about 1.5 million bbl/day). Recently China has been negotiating deals with Russia and Iran for oil supply as that economy grows and becomes more industrialized. Ditto for India, another large growing economy. There will be a lot of competition for Iraqi oil on the world market when it enters the market in a few years. The fact that sources of "cheap oil" are few only drives home the point why the US and its allies must go to war and seize Iraqi oil (and anywhere else there is oil for the taking). It should come as no surprise that the US has been very anxious over the situation in Venezuela and had initially gave support to the coup last year. And it should not go unnoticed that a top priority of the Bush administration is to push through the "energy plan" that includes drilling in ANWR.

Then there is the weakening US dollar and the possibility of inflation should the Treasury fire up the printing presses as proposed by Alan Greenspan and Fed Governor Ben Bernanke. As it is I don't see an Iraqi defeat being of much help overall. Initially I would expect a sharp drop in prices, but it would not likely last once the euphoria wears off.

- Black Blade
Hipplebeck
(01/01/2003; 03:08:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93100)
One of the reasons I no longer pay income tax
http://www.givemeliberty.org/Congressman Ron Paul reminded the Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on International Relations that the Constitution required a congressional Declaration of War before the armed forces of the United States could be applied in hostilities overseas, not H.J.R 114, a congressional Resolution authorizing the President to decide if and when to apply that force.


However, Chairman Henry Hyde is quoted, for the record, "There are things in the Constitution that have been overtaken by events, by time. Declaration of war is one of them� There are things no longer relevant to a modern society�Why declare war if you don't have to?�We are saying to the President, use your judgment�So, to demand that we declare war is to strengthen something to death. You have got a hammerlock on this situation, and it is not called for. Inappropriate, anachronistic, it isn't done anymore�."
Hipplebeck
(01/01/2003; 03:51:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93101)
One of the reasons I no longer pay income tax
http://www.archives.gov/exhibit_hall/charters_of_freedom/constitution/constitution_transcription.html
from section 10

No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation;
grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal;
coin Money;
emit Bills of Credit;
MAKE ANY THING BUT GOLD AND SILVER COIN A TENDER IN PAYMENT OF DEBTS
pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of
Nobility.
Topaz
(01/01/2003; 04:06:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93102)
World Gold.
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=ZAR&t=USD&a=1&c=1The tearaway success on the Currency front last year was the Sth African Rand - approx 50% appreciation vis the US$...and by default the ZAR/PoG turned in a disappointing 8% loss.
Those Gold outfits with hedge strategies denominated in Rand are no doubt pleased with themselves wot?

Conversely, the AUD/PoG @ $617 must have similarly disposed Aussie miners in deep doo-doo and gives credence to sectors conclusion that short Miners positions are being papered over....keeping the supply side "on the rails".
Topaz
(01/01/2003; 04:21:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93103)
...further, (speculation)
...might it not be plausable that ALL hedge arrangements are now negotiated in ZAR?
After the Cambior/Ashanti mess it's quite possible the Rand became the Currency du jour for Global hedge agreements.
Hipplebeck
(01/01/2003; 04:38:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93104)
elevator guy
The battle of Baghdad will probably be only the beginning of the war.
At the Arab summit, all Arab nations pledged that a war against one Arab nation is a war against them all.
The Iraq war is a trap in my opinion.
I believe that the US will not get a UN mandate for war and will have to choose to go it alone.
The Arab nations will refuse the right to use their countries as a staging ground without this UN mandate.
We (the US) will be at war with too many enemies.
When Saddam said that the gulf war was the mother of all battles, everyone scoffed and was amused because they did not get the meaning. It was the mother of all battles in that it gave birth to the many battles that were coming.
Hipplebeck
(01/01/2003; 04:44:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93105)
The reason reflation is not going to work this time
In order for reflation to work, people must be able to buy more, to go into debt more.
The only way to do that is for wages to rise, but wages are being cut, not rising.
Two reasons. Machines are making products instead of people, and Chinese are making products much cheaper than the supplier of the world reserve currency. As long as China has their money pegged to the dollar they will bury us.
Belgian
(01/01/2003; 05:07:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93106)
@ elevator guy : CRUDE OIL for EURO !!!! # 93027
Yes indeed Sir, Not only Iraq suggested the oil for euro, but France did and it was even discussed briefly on an Euro-reunion in Portugal.
Isn't it "amazing" that nobody never, ever, questions *WHY* cheap Arabian oil is still exchanged for that same old dollar-currency, that keeps on losing purchasing power !
Isn't USAGOLD's chart on the dollar's permanent declining, worth, speaking for itself, to each and every holder of this proliferating confetti-mountain ?

The deafening silence on this inevitable *oil for euro* is accentuating its deepiest importance. Nobody questions why Norway as a major oil-producer isn't part of EMU (yet) !
Same for UK Northsea oil-production at her Majesty's service.
It will be big brother, Saudi Arabia (swing-producer and BIS-member) that will ship the first cargo of oil for euro. The rest will jump on this ASAP.

This oil for euro is totally in line with the euro's architecture, concepted for "stability" and "growth".
A stable purchasing power (intrinsic worth) automaticallly leading to long term reasonable-growth, through an abondened free/stable flow of *cheap* oil...Arabian oil that is !

Yes, it is all part of the euro-master-plan. A shocking thought for all those, decade's long, dollar-adepts and oil-barrons.

This "underwater" fight between the euro and dollar, going for Arabian oil, is fiercly raging ! It is exactly the opposite of the world's competetive depreciations in search for trade. Dollar and euro bid their value UP as to gain the cheap Arabian oil. The dollar made himself strong in Gold through a paper-gold-pool play. The euro is in the process of breaking up this outdated concept and has chosen (just in time) for Another concept. It was Gold-loving, Arabian oil that inspired the euro-builders, who were looking for optimisation of their enormous Gold-exchange-reserves.

Consumed oil-wealth for eternal Gold-wealth ! AS SIMPLE AS THAT ! Bringing enduring Stability and Growth...peace and prosperity. But first the dollar-warrior must bite the dust. The old financial dollar-system must shake on its grounds. And shaking it is !

All commentators are looking at the euro from a pure "economical" standpoint and stubbornly refuse to consider its Golden concept ! Great !
Some very specific (euro) Central bankers are monetary talibans in ivory towers and have a very specific set of priorities, at reasonable distance from economical implications.

Gold-paper-bugs should ask themselves "why" the paper-gold (mines) didn't move (at all) with the recent POG-rise of 8% (325$ > 350$) !!! Is here something written on a wall ???

Why is the Rumsfeld-Saddam connection in the eighties, suddenly popping up (Iraq-Iran-war) ?
Is UN-inspector Mr. Blix, suddenly going to "negociate" with Iraq ? Follow these news-events very closely and listen to the dates that are set.

Who can stop terror at once : an invading military dollar, permanently depreciating... or an honest, non agressive, new, euro/gold-currency, with intrinsic worth, offered for Arabian oil ?
This is the "displacement" process of the old dollar-reserve-currency with the ultimate target of a sounder global economy. Debts will no longer be assets for gain !
Oil doesn't accept debts (=dollar) any longer ! Time out !

Cheap and abunded flow of oil is an imperative for a new global economical relance in the un-saturated parts of the developping world. Confidence and Stability are desperately needed, now more than ever. The US-policies, outlined at present, are extremely counter-productive to produce this change. The escalating war on terror is a *disaster* ! But not the only one. Dollar-hyper-dominance is threathening the globe's monetary *health*.
A globalizing world needs a high level of stability and internal growth in China > Russia > Middle East > India !
A lot of cheap oil is needed in order to give internal growth a chance, overthere. Working and working harder for less purchasing power has definitely its limits.

Yes Sir elevator guy...I think this ME (and other)-turmoil has a lot to do with the above described underlyings.
The old recepies for global (dollar) dominance are losing their (utility) grips. And as an Eurolander with an history of two WWs...I think that history is repeating itself at present...unfortunately !

Will oil for euro, prevent (nuclear) drama or will oil for euro come after the dust has settled ?

Gold the universal valuator...soon !





Hipplebeck
(01/01/2003; 06:36:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93107)
Belgian--Well said sir!!!!
My hat is off to the new trail boss
Another another
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(01/01/2003; 07:14:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93108)
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silvercollector
(01/01/2003; 08:27:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93109)
Headline News
I was checking for posts/links on this one.

"Iraq attack will cripple US economy", Bush.

I don't get this one. If Bush says (knows) this why attack? I thought the premise was to improve the economy. With Annan's statement yesterday (Iraq co-operating) do I sense the easing of ME tension?
mikal
(01/01/2003; 08:37:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93110)
@silvercollector
Re: Bushes statement. In the context of all the words he spoke yesterday, he meant that a terrorist incident "attack" would "cripple the economy". So as to justify disarming the Iraqi WMD capability to damage the U.S. economy, he will not allow it to weaken our "strong economy".
Belgian
(01/01/2003; 08:52:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93111)
Shroder (Germany) NOT Bush...in Shangai !
While President Bush expresses some hot and cold, confusing, hints about the US-ME policies (newyear-interview)...
the old Euroland continent dreams (again) about the ancient Orient Express (a magnetic one this time) as the new China/Euroland, *mutual* tradeline. Next is the re-opening of the Eurasian silk-route (Germany/France print the new afghani-currency).
Euroland even offered to attach the afghani to the euro.

These euro-dynamics are unmistakably in progress and say much more about the *future* euro-currency than about the present dollar, from an economical standpoint.
The US will never be excluded from world-trade but will slowly lose its preferential status for the only reason of the mis-management of its currency, totally damaged and irreparable.

Originally the euro was builded on a 5% Gold backing only. At that time the euro was not "that" ambitious and desired to buy oil for euro "only" for Euroland. Later on the BIS wanted 80% of the world's oil to be bought with euro and therefore needed a gold-backing with 15% > 30% (France/Germany/Italy). (Another #60253)
Is the above responsible for the US's seemingly hesitation on ME-war as I do percept it, today, and suspected it months ago ??? This,co-incidentally, together with Gold (POG) shining a bit brighter with the breakthrough of 334$ and reaching the 354$/360$ BIS ceiling.
Remember that Another's timing of the Big POG Gap was around 2000/2001. He also "cautiously" mentioned the unknown outcome of geo-political events. In other words..."money" decides on peace and war !

Don't buy the Gold-Strength argument on the media's boring explanations about war and oil-prices. That is past blablabla and only for page/screen-filling ! THE GOLD MARKET HAS CHANGED !!!

Another aspect about the ME's monetary initiative, never gets the "WHY" question by western, complacent, well paid, observers : The Gold-dinar. Why does the ME suddenly wants a Gold-dinar when the euro is definitely and irreversably into real existance ? They (ME) must surely be well-informed about and highly-inspired by, the euro/gold/oil-concept. They want to copy the model.

Another #60253 : The selling of old dollar-reserves (quite a stash), "alone", will reprise Gold in terms of US$ at least " 6000$/oz ". It's present *** INTERBANK *** Reseve-Value !!! The euro will reach 100% gold-backing at these prices. The US will have to take euro (not zeuro) as exchange-reserve !

Can the *euro-concept* avoid ME-war ? Have central bankers ever started or stopped wars ? Does there really exist a threath to "Weimarise" the dollar-currency ? Hahaaaaa !
Can the euro's present fortunes been halted and reversed ?
Woeeeeeejjjjiiii !

Will see...

Pizz
(01/01/2003; 08:55:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93112)
R Powell
Rich,

The after hours move I was referring to was in domestic silver stocks - three or four large blocks on a .10 uptick.

This was prior to the dime or so increase in spot Friday.

With regards to Sinclair, IMHO his technical analysis is second to none, and his opinion of the Elliot people (short term) is put your money where your mouth is. He's offered 100K of his own money in 1000 dollar lots to any Elliot follower that Gold will trade at 401 next year before their continually bearish stance that gold is heading back to 200.

Any Elliot follower has to e-mail the acceptance and he'll sent them a binding contract - no BS.

As far as his fundamentals and track record, it's about the best I've seen. I just went back and listened to his July interview on Financial Sense, and this guy is dead on in his analysis. I also agree with his outlook of going back to a quasi gold standard. . .the paper pushers will not have too much choice. . . ., but I think his 500 dollar figure may be a bit conservative and his July prediction of 1250 gold at the top of this bull - years out- may be a bit low also.

Thanks for the response - I'm off to Reno for a few days R & R. Need a different casino to rest the mind a bit. . .

Pizz

Belgian
(01/01/2003; 09:12:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93113)
@ Mikal and Silvercollector : President Bush....
Yes gentlemen, Mister President was highly confused ! Something decisive must have happened that might (!) be reason for a 180� turn (repeat : might) ?
The pope did not mentioned "Iraq" but with the ME , he ment clearly : Iraq !
When Bush said : dammage our "economy"...did he ment : the "US$" ?
North Korea seems to increase its nuke-pressure in proportion to the US>Iraq war-threath ? Funny isn't it ?
Who's next in line of the axis of evil ? Iran ? Also a would be nuclear power ? Action = Reaction !
elevator guy
(01/01/2003; 10:32:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93114)
@Black Blade
I understand your meaning as this: That the Iraq war will not be able to save our economy alone.

I'm gonna take a little more time to mull it over, but I just wanted to thank you now for your response.

-Vic
elevator guy
(01/01/2003; 10:35:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93115)
@Hipplebeck, 93104
"The Mother of All Wars"?

That has a dismal, forebodeing ring to it.

Thank you for your reply.
erayboy
(01/01/2003; 10:42:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93116)
Chart of GOLD COTs - Commercials Shorted Entire BULL MOVE - Link
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/COTAU.htmSeems the Commercials have been shorting the entire BULL MOVE in POG.

The graph appears to be rolling over.

The RISK control programs have them buying actuals -- critical mass -- as the NOTIONAL values become real pricing influences.

A push to $400 and they are TOAST.
elevator guy
(01/01/2003; 10:44:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93117)
Belgian, 93106
Sir Belgian, thank you kindly for your reply.

"Will oil for euro, prevent (nuclear) drama or will oil for euro come after the dust has settled?"

Or is there still another possibility that the oil-for-dollars system can be propped up for a while longer with "small" conventional wars? Or political medling? (like what's going on in Venezuela?)

elevator guy
(01/01/2003; 10:51:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93118)
@erayboy, post# 93116
Thanks for that chart!

Looking at the chart for the small traders, it is like a mirror image of the commercials, where the commercials are short, the small traders are long.

Seems like the little folk hope expectantly, almost romantically, for gold to go up, where the big players are willing to gouge out the eyes of those who take the long side of the bet, counting on the bull move to peak out soon?
elevator guy
(01/01/2003; 10:53:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93119)
checking out for a while, catch ya later
.
Paper Avalanche
(01/01/2003; 11:06:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93120)
First CHINA goes for the gold, now dumping ties with dollar
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhMS2BX4Q2hpbmEgMy new years resolution is to provide snips with my link, so here goes:

"
Beijing, Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- China, whose economy has outgrown its biggest rivals' for the past seven years, may no longer need a weak currency to keep its edge. Executives and analysts say a stronger yuan would lift company earnings and economic growth.

Since China pegged the yuan at 8.3 to the dollar in 1995, cheap exports have fueled a $199 billion trade surplus and low manufacturing costs have drawn $308 billion in foreign investment. China's growing clout as the world's largest consumer market may help it sustain last year's 8 percent economic growth rate, even with a stronger yuan making exports costlier.

Some of China's biggest companies say they'd gain from a stronger currency as they import more and expand overseas. China Eastern Airlines Corp.'s fuel bill and foreign debt burden would shrink. China Unicom Ltd. could buy imported phone equipment more cheaply. Oilfields from Indonesia to Algeria would cost less for Sinopec, the nation's largest listed company.

``Overseas assets would be cheaper for us if the yuan gained in value,'' said Shao Jingyang, a deputy director at China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec. A 5 percent gain in the yuan would also cut the cost of Sinopec's planned 2003 oil imports by more than $100 million, based on current prices.

Motorola Inc. and other foreign investors say a stronger yuan wouldn't make them leave. While costs would rise and their exports would become more expensive in the U.S. and elsewhere, China's market of 1.3 billion consumers is reason enough to stay.

Boeing, Wal-Mart

A stronger yuan would make Boeing Co. planes and General Electric Co. turbine engines cheaper in China, boosting their exports and helping to narrow the U.S.'s largest trade deficit with any country. Companies such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which buys $10 billion in goods from China each year, may suffer as China-made clothes, computer parts and other goods became pricier.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates that the yuan is undervalued by 15 percent. China is growing more open to calls from Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa and other foreign officials to let the currency appreciate, analysts say.

Chinese Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng said in November calls for a stronger yuan have increased.

``I personally feel some pressure, and this is something the U.S. is pondering,'' Xiang said. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to $83.1 billion in the first 10 months of 2002 from $70.4 billion a year earlier."

THIS IS HUGE.

China has set the course for the rest of the world to follow in its renunciation of the US peso. How long until this causes a mass sell off of us treasuries? Things are accelerating IMO.

Happy new year!

Paper AVALANCHE
ax
(01/01/2003; 11:12:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93121)
HAPPY NEW YEAR 2003

Happy New Year to the Gold Forum and to its many
knowledgeable participants. I appreciate the opportunity
that the Forum offers me to learn.


May 2003 bring an improvement in the United States and

world economy with gold playing the pivotal role for which

it was designed.


ax
Genoo
(01/01/2003; 11:27:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93122)
LULA appears doomed...a case of desperation and excessive expectations...
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhMiaRQoQnJhemlsSince Lula's election, the real strengthened 5 percent and Brazil's benchmark 8 percent bond due in 2014 climbed 16 percent, cutting the year's decline to about 14 percent.

With the economy choked by benchmark domestic interest rates of 25 percent and annual inflation accelerating at its fastest annual pace in more than six years, it may be difficult for Lula to raise the $61 billion he needs to pay debt in his first six months in office, MFS Investment's Dow said.

Joao Carlos Goncalves, secretary-general of Brazil's 16 million-member Forca Sindical labor federation, said Lula may lose allies if he doesn't deliver quickly on promises for higher wages.

``We will be there to hold him to his promises,'' said Antonio Bento de Oliveira, 38, a government worker in Bahia, said as he waited to get a glimpse of Lula outside congress.



Comment: As Lula falters it will be the beginning of the further spread of the South American econoomic illness.... hmmm, I wonder to what degree this disease might be contagious.....for Citibank amoung others it must a helpless feeling having just one option... endlessly looking at the weathervane and wondering just when the strong northerlies will begin to blow.
Boilermaker
(01/01/2003; 11:58:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93123)
Natural Gas Supply/Demand
http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=121snip:
"As a result of this rapidly-growing imbalance, supplies of natural gas available to the U.S. market are virtually certain to fall at least 1.5 TCf below EIA's most recent (12/9/02) �03 consumption forecast of 23.11 TCf, forcing sharp price increases to drive out-of-the market at least 5-7% of expected �03 demand.

This imbalance in turn is the direct of result of a head-on collision of two "tectonic plates" set in motion long ago:

1.The rapid decline, after more than three decades of development, of almost every major conventional source of natural gas supply in the U.S. and the Albertan fields in Canada.

2.The rapid shift, as a result of the long-delayed impact of Clean Air Act requirements enacted in the early 1990's, to natural gas-fired generating units as the marginal source of supply to serve virtually all of the incremental electricity needs of the U.S. economy (by far the most electricity-intensive economy in the world) for many years to come."

comment: This author has the same message that BB has been preaching. I do believe, however, that we may dodge a serious NG shortage this winter due to the recent warm spell that has brought some relief to storage draws.

With respect to NG the US is approaching the same supply/demand situation that it was approching in 1970 with the oil market. We had gone (with oil) from a net exporter to a significant importer and became vulnerable to a supply and price shock that put our economy in the dumper.

If you read the linked article above be sure to read the "readers comments" some of which are also very worthwhile.

Cheers and Happy New Year to all
Boilermaker
Belgian
(01/01/2003; 12:16:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93124)
@ Pizz
Mister Gold(miner)-Sinclair's POG=1,250$ is the simpliest of Fibonacci-math (1.618 factor) on the POG-30 yrs chart.
Sinclair's POG projections miss the following :

The euro wants to *displace* the US$ : Is in progress and probably irreversable when having passed parity. Next target for �/$ = 1.07 to 1.10.

The euro wants to become the new reserve-currency and in order to achieve this the euro must become an *oil-currency*. This will happen with the backing of Saudi Arabia (and Iran). Guess why nobody touches Saudi Arabia (and Osama bin Laden) !!! Yes Saudi Arabia is left alone ! Iraq (and Yemen) is the scapegoat.
Saudi Arabia will make or break the euro as an oil-currency on the condition that the euro makes "the" Free Physical Gold Market, IN EURO, happen and is aligned to it ! Fair deal isn't it ?

POG will never see the EW-Prechter sub 200$ because the euro made it already to its first phase (dollar-displacement).

Have a nice trip to Reno, Pizz !
ax
(01/01/2003; 12:22:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93125)
THE ECONOMY AS 2003 BEGINS
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030101/economy_newyear_2.html

Story:

Reuters
Economy Begins 2003 on Fretful Note
Wednesday January 1, 10:56 am ET
By Glenn Somerville

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - As it did a year ago, the U.S. economy is
entering 2003 in a fretful state.

Concern about the consequences of potential war with Iraq cast a pall
over 2003 prospects much as the aftershock of the Sept. 11, 2001, terror
attacks did on 2002 -- a year many Americans may wish to forget.

ADVERTISEMENT
U.S. stock prices closed out 2002 with their first three-year losing
streak since 1939 to 1941, the year-end holiday shopping season held
little cheer, companies still were shedding jobs by the thousands and
data showed consumer moods were souring.

War with Iraq -- whether and when it happens and how long it lasts -- is
the key to changing the economy's fortunes in the New Year, economists
say.

The Conference Board, a private business research group, said on Tuesday
its Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 80.3 in December from a revised
84.9 in November, a far steeper fall than economists had expected.

Consumers, whose spending drives two-thirds of U.S. economic growth,
were worried about rising unemployment, up to 6 percent in November from
5.7 percent in October. But analysts said the underlying cause of
sagging confidence was war fear.

"The war risks are just enormous and it's causing people and businesses
to just sit and wait," said economist Douglas Lee of the forecasting
firm Economics from Washington. "It's the uncertainty of the situation
that is the problem and if that was resolved then business could begin
to move forward."

The Bush administration has steadily ratcheted up pressure on Iraq,
declaring it in breach of a U.N. Security Council resolution on
disarmament and positioning forces for a strike while leaving vague when
one might occur, if at all.

DURATION OF WAR MATTERS

Economist Sung Won Sohn of Wells Fargo Bank in Minneapolis said the
potential impact on the U.S. economy varied widely, depending on whether
a war ends with swift success -- as did the 1991 Gulf War -- or becomes
protracted and nasty.

"A quick and decisive war against Iraq would boost confidence and slash
oil prices," Sohn said.

"On the other hand, a messy and costly war with terrorist attacks on oil
facilities here and abroad could send oil prices to $80 a barrel,
equivalent to the price of oil during the Iranian revolution of the
1970s," he added.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday for a second straight day to about $31.20 a
barrel for crude futures, down about $2.50 from two-year highs set on
Monday, but still finished out the year 56 percent above average prices
at the start of 2002.

Speaking to reporters at his Texas ranch on Tuesday, President Bush
again emphasized his dissatisfaction with Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein's level of compliance with disarmament resolutions and warned
Iraq was a threat to U.S. economic well-being.

"An attack from Saddam Hussein or a surrogate of Saddam Hussein would
cripple our economy," said Bush, who is expected to propose tax cuts and
other measures later this month in a bid to reinvigorate the economy.

Aside from Iraq, there has been growing strain with North Korea over its
renewed pursuit of a nuclear arsenal, although Bush insisted on Tuesday
this amounted to a "diplomatic showdown" rather than a military one.

NOT ALL GLOOMY

If some of the cloud cover lifts on the international front, analysts
say several factors augur well for a pickup.

Economist John Silvia of First Union Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina,
says corporate profits are relatively steady and personal income growth
is solid even though consumers clearly are saving more.

Sohn agreed, noting, "As we enter 2003, the key is to have the consumer
hang in there, not necessarily go on a spending binge, but most of all
we want business confidence to pick up and that is being held back by
geopolitical concerns."

Interest rates are already the lowest in four decades, and Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said earlier this month the economy was
still working through a "soft patch" that should become easier to
navigate if global tensions ease.

Like private analysts, Greenspan said it was vital that business
spending improve, saying "any significant fall in the current
geopolitical and other risks should noticeably improve capital outlays,
the indispensable spur to a path of increased economic growth."

That brings the scenario back to Iraq, as was the case more than a
decade ago when Bush's father was president and James Baker was
secretary of state. Then, as now, Americans were suffering a crisis of
confidence as they worried about the consequences of war with Iraq,
which had invaded Kuwait.

At a news conference, Baker explained the economic impact of Iraq's
actions on the United States as "jobs, jobs, jobs."

That Gulf War, from Jan. 17, 1991, until Iraq surrendered 42 days later,
was short and tidy. Oil prices, up on war fears, tumbled soon after the
first bombs fell. Stock markets rose.

The brief conflict lifted a fog of uncertainty over the U.S. economy and
helped usher in the longest peacetime economic expansion in American
history.

--------------------

ax: The United States and world economy will not begin

any significant recovery based on the outcome

of any Middle Eastern or North Korean issue.

Nor will the the price of gold be permanently

affected by such outcomes. The economy and gold

will be affected in a significant way only by the
reincorporation of gold into the U.S. and world

financial systems. This has already been hinted

at by Alan Greenspan, talked about by some of us

on this forum, and predicted by some essay writers

on other forums. The year 2003 shall see a major

change in the relationship of gold to economic

life.





Belgian
(01/01/2003; 12:54:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93126)
@ elevator guy
The oil for euro transition is not the kind of hiphop-1-2-3 enterprise. It is an event with HUUUUUGE implications and a dramatic change. That's why I'm hyper-focused on Saudi Arabia. Making the euro the "new" oil-currency can only happen with The Biggest oil-swing brother who has tremendous oil-taps and huge, available, cheap reserves.
All other oil producers simply watch if this euro/oil/gold-cat can come down safely from its three. For the time being there is no other alternative than to sell oil for dollars under whatever conditions.

It is only because the Saudi Kingdom is (and will remain) attached to the yellow wealth that this concept can get airborne and is, at the same time, offering an ideal solution to the coming financial/monetary-collapse.
We couldn't get much further anyway (economically) with the suffocating dollar-debt. Or is it because salvage is in the air that so much debt and confetti is produced (printing presses) ? Think it is both of the arguments.

I must admit that I'm still searching for the deepioest of clues on the Venezuela events. Maybe the US wants to capture/control more oil than necessary for its consumption at home as to sell the excess for its future needed euro-reserves, next to the remaining Gold-reserves (exchange reserves that is). Who knows ?
The same will probably apply for all underground Gold (anywhere) that might be sold to the BIS in exchange for euro-reserves.

The 75% of Global dollar-reserves exchanged for still to be mined Gold at enormous prices. This under full "regulation" of course. As oil in the ground is of "national/international" importance. See China and Russia (Japan-Jipangu) stepping up their Gold-explorations.
The whole situation in South Africa might change (for the good) dramatically and start acting as the developping engine for the development of the black continent...at last !? All this on the basis of underground Gold that now will (can be) me mined, under strict control, as pure wealth instead of an ordinarry commodity. That's how South Africa's prosperity started anyway with dear old Cecil Rhodes. Remember that the rand once equaled the dollar in exchange-value. It decimated since then (10 rand to the dollar).

Goldrush
(01/01/2003; 13:05:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93127)
This is bad news for Afghanistan deployment
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A60833-2002Dec31.htmlU.S. Reports Clash With Pakistani Border Unit
American Wounded; Bomb Ends Skirmish

By Marc Kaufman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, January 1, 2003; Page A01


BAGRAM AIR BASE, Afghanistan, Dec. 31 -- U.S. military authorities announced today that a brief shootout erupted between U.S. and Pakistani troops along the Afghan border Sunday, prompting the U.S. forces to call in an F-16 warplane that dropped a 500-pound bomb on the Pakistanis to end the clash.

One U.S. soldier was shot and wounded as the encounter began, the U.S. military said in a statement at Bagram, just north of Kabul, the capital. The soldier, whose identity was withheld, was flown to Germany for medical treatment and was listed in stable condition at a military facility there, the statement said.

Reports from Pakistani officials in South Waziristan, the tribal administrative zone on the Pakistani side of the border, said at least two members of the Pakistani Border Scouts were killed in the bombing, which they said hit a Muslim religious school on the Pakistani side of the border in which some of the Border Scouts had taken refuge.

U.S. and Pakistani military authorities sought to play down the clash and stressed that both sides remain determined to cooperate in hunting down remnants of Taliban and al Qaeda forces who have redoubts in the isolated border hills and move back and forth across a tense and loosely policed frontier. But the shooting raised again the question of whether some Pakistani soldiers and tribal leaders still sympathize with their Taliban neighbors, whom they long supported until the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
___________________
Pakistan is not really an ally. PM just needs our financial
help, billions are going to Pak, but the people support bin Laden.
Not to mention the fact Pak has been dealing with NK.
Pak gave NK nuclear tech in exchange for Missile tech.
Bagram air base is a trap just like it was for the Soviets.
Morale of troops is low, its a quagmire situation and the
military types know it.
Goldrush
(01/01/2003; 13:25:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93128)
More info on Pak incident
BAGRAM AIR BASE, Afghanistan (CNN) -- A U.S. soldier -- grazed on his head by a bullet near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border -- was shot by a Pakistani border guard, U.S. military officials said Tuesday.

The officials said the border guard is in Pakistani custody.

Brig. Saulat Raza, a Pakistani armed forces spokesman, said "We are investigating the incident."

Previously, Sunday's incident was described as an exchange of enemy gunfire. He was hit by an AK-47 automatic rifle.

The soldier was transferred to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany for further examination and neurological testing, a statement said. His condition is listed as stable.

The incident occurred near Shkin in eastern Afghanistan, a report by American Forces Press Service said. U.S. soldiers were observing Pakistani border guards destroy inert missiles found in the area.

The border in the region is in dispute, but U.S. officials said the American soldiers were within Afghanistan.

According to officials, one of the border guards approached the U.S. patrol and was asked by the American soldiers to return to his side of the boundary.

As he began to walk back, the border guard turned, dropped to one knee and fired on the Americans, wounding the U.S. soldier.

After the border guard ran into a nearby abandoned religious school, U.S. soldiers said they took more fire from the building and called in close-air support.

An AV-8B Harrier jet dropped a 500-pound precision-guided bomb on the building, according to the report.

American officials said U.S. and Pakistani troops continue to work closely together to patrol the border area between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

ax
(01/01/2003; 13:57:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93129)
The New World Financial System with Gold at its Center

The New World Financial System with Gold at its Center


Trends can be reversed. There is no reason why the USD must
relinquish

its role as the world's reference and reserve currency.
This role will

not be relinquished if the U.S. Treasury recognizes the
supreme value

of gold in world finance.



1. The United States must double its Treasury tonnage of Gold
Reserves from 8k ton to 16 k ton


2. Step 1 accomplishes mainly the purchase of TIME.


3. The TIME to (while giving the USD stability and

credibility by

being backed by instead of approximately 90 billion
USDs
of gold at current prices, 180 billion of same) :

a. maintain very low interest rates and increased
money supply

b. use the increased money supply with low lending
rates to

fund increased research and venture capitalism

within the United States

that will:

a. gradually reestablish a manufacturing
economy of not
only high tech goods and system,
but also low tech
goods to use

a. domestically

b. for export


Basically, this is what China is doing.

What applies to the United States also applies to Europe.

Europe is ahead of the U.S. in this regard in
that its gold

reserves ( in proportion to the size of its economy and
overall debt)

is higher. Also Europe is diversified and more self
sufficient in terms

of production of high and low tech goods, both for domestic
use and

for export.

Oil and natural gas , their temporary shortgages and price
swings,

just as the threat of war in the middle east and North
Korea, play a role

in how gold relates in price to the USD. But this is not
the long range

relationship. All the various factors that affect the price
of these energy

commodities as well as the world political situation must be
analyzed

carefully, but they should not obscure this future stronger
relationship that gold will have as it is used within a new
world economic system.


AX





Black Blade
(01/01/2003; 15:30:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93130)
Energy Business Watch Report

Black Blade: The "Coming Natural Gas Crisis" report posted by Boilermaker has some serious implications for US energy needs. This is a short synopsis of the report's conclusions:


Even for an industry long accustomed to high price volatility, the last two years have been awild ride:

� In 2000, spot-market prices quadrupled in less than nine months peaking at $8.72/MMBtu in January 2001 - at a time when no one in the industry was predicting steep increases

� Less than three months later prices began to plummet � dropping below $2.00/MMBtu
even before the September 11 th terrorist attacks

� In March of 2002, prices again unexpectedly sky-rocketed for the second time in 18 months � doubling at a time when consumption was at a seasonal low and the amount of natural gas in storage was at record levels

What is driving this volatility? Are we at a critical turning point, in which the forward delivery price curve is again likely to shift? If so, when? How sharply? And in what direction? Over the past six months, EBW has sponsored a path-breaking analysis to get to the bottom, once and for all, of the fundamental drivers of both supply and demand in the North American market and predict more accurately likely near and mid-term price levels.

The results of this analysis are stunning. In particular, EBW's report�which will be released publicly in November�concludes that:

� While it is possible that spot market prices could take one last short-term dive this fall, when unused storage capacity may be reduced to zero, by no later than December or early
January, the forward delivery price curve will shift sharply upward

� Further, this upward shift will not be a short-lived event; instead it will mark the beginning of a period of at least 36-48 months in which prices are likely to be consistently well-above current levels

� This upward price pressure stems in part from a huge shortfall in supplies available to the U.S. market, which are likely to be at least 1.0 Tcf short of next year's needs even if there is zero increase in demand.

� Further, at the same time that available supplies are dropping to the lowest in more than a decade, demand is virtually certain to exceed current forecasts�due in part to the impact of the 200,000 MW of natural gas-fired generating capacity that has been added since 1999 and tightened NOx restrictions that go into effect in 2003 and 2004. These sustained much higher-than-expected prices in turn could have far-reaching implications for every sector of the industry, including the future direction of merchant generation, the value of existing coal and nuclear capacity, the future role of power marketers, and the ability to refinance.


Aristotle
(01/01/2003; 15:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93131)
ax, I'm sorry to be such a pain in your side about this
I still think your proposed Gold-buying scheme for the Treasury is a muddle. Do you *really* think there are another 8,000 tonnes out there in the marketplace so easily had in exchange for the Treasury's dollars??? While facing that puzzle, through what mechanics do you then envision that the Treasury may come up with the vast amount of dollars as necessary to compete for (purchase) this 8,000 tonnes of Gold in the present marketplace?

To make a long story short, I can see how your scheme would rocket the price of Gold, but I can't see how it could do anything beneficial for the fate of the dollar. It's one thing to just *say* such and such and end result may be done or built, but it's quite another thing to appreciate the mechanics involved, recognizing that the blueprint can't possible be drawn and implemented.

Can you offer up anything more to address the nuts and bolts of this Treasury Department scheme of yours?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Black Blade
(01/01/2003; 15:40:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93132)
Gold price rises as miners stop hedging
http://afr.com/companies/2003/01/02/FFXXWLT3EAD.html
Snippit:

A key factor helping push gold prices to five-year highs is that miners have stopped betting the price will fall, according to Deutsche Bank. While fears of a Middle East war have been blamed for gold's run to almost $US350 an ounce, the change of thinking by miners is just as important but not as obvious. Gold is now 30 per cent higher than the prices below $US260 seen early in 2001. "Historically, at these prices, the producers would have been very active in the hedge market," Deutsche said. "The belief that we are in a bull market has led to negative sentiment towards the hedged producers. Very little new hedging is being put in place." Central bank selling was also a key reason for slumping gold prices in the late 1990s, but buying by China, the Philippines and Venezuela helped offset selling by European central bankers. Deutsche said another major factor in the gold price rise in 2002 was the decline in the US dollar.

Black Blade: I would expect to see much higher Gold prices in the New Year.

Old Yeller
(01/01/2003; 15:41:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93133)
Deconstructing Bernanke
http://csf.colorado.edu/mail/longwaves/2002/msg02856.html
Who better than Jim Grant?

Happy New Year,USAGOLD and all the fine purveyors of
gold tinged news and opinions who post here.

The year of gold's revenge;sounds delightful.

Let's get physical.
Black Blade
(01/01/2003; 15:52:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93134)
Gold glows as tension grows
http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,5787164%255E462,00.html
Snippit:

A PALL of gloom hanging over global financial markets has given gold a New Year's Day rally, cementing the precious metal's safe-haven status. In 2002, gold was a favoured alternative investment in financial markets dogged by economic weakness and corporate disappointments. Market watchers said gold would remain an investor sanctuary for some time, with stocks set to start 2003 in the same fashion they ended 2002 � with sluggish, uninspired trade amid dull global sentiment. Overnight Tuesday, Wall Street ended its third yearly loss in a row � its longest losing streak since World War II. "It's been a tragic three years for most stock investors, and we're all looking forward to 2003," American analyst Kevin Carey of Indiana's 1st Source Bank said.

Black Blade: I have no sympathy for those who lost it all in the stock markets. If they did not take prudent steps to protect themselves from the economic downturn, then too bad. Precious metals are a form of portfolio insurance. Who but the most irresponsible would rive without auto insurance? Or buy a home without homeowners insurance? Or not have medical insurance? The same goes for portfolio insurance. I have no sympathy for irresponsible investors. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months� expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

Leigh
(01/01/2003; 16:43:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93135)
Old Yeller re Grant Article
Old Yeller, if that's the kind of talk that goes on during Fed Christmas parties, it's no tragedy that a plane crashed into the Florida building last month during exactly such an event!
ski
(01/01/2003; 16:43:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93136)
Silver thoughts .......


Have greatly enjoyed the recent silver discussion. "You haven't seen anything yet" seems to be the appropriate title for the POS at the start of this new year.

Some of you may have been following my posts on silver. (example: 5-20-02 #76064). I started a personal project to document a list of approaching forces that are going to impact the POS. Over the years I have learned to trust the FACTS and ignore the OPINIONS. To qualify for my list, the APPROACHING FORCE had to meet two requirements. First, it hasn't yet happened. Second, it has to be fairly large in scope.

The result of this work radically CHANGED even my own bullishness on silver and I had been following the this commodity for nearly 20 years. This came as a surprise. I could not believe the great length of the list to date. (Over time, I have posted the original list and updates on this forum.) Before I began this work I had thought that I had already done all of my silver buying. I was already well overweighted in AU by any measure. But as the list grew and grew, my personal CONCLUSION from the assembled FACTS told me to resume aggressive buying.

Another operational principle that I penned and use says, "It makes no sense to purchase good economic advice (or spend valuable time on the web etc.) and not make purchases, adjustments, or otherwise heed the advice by putting at least some of it into practice." Again, I followed my own advice.

How credible is the APPROACHING FORCES work? As of December first, the list had grown to 65 forces. (3 more will be listed below for a new total of 68) Bob Chapman, from the International Forecaster, saw the list and asked for permission to reprint it in his newsletter. This was done on one of his December issues. Credibility? You be the judge.

I sure that someone will say that they don't agree with 10 of the forces listed. Fine. Take any 10 from the list of 68 and you are still faced 58 forces that are almost certain to move silver higher.

It seems like someone is always bringing up some kind of phantom or incomplete information about silver to shoot holes in the bullish arguments. (ex. digital photography). THIS DOUBT IS AN EVER-PRESENT FORCE IN ALL BULL MARKETS. It is said that markets climb a WALL OF WORRY and fall down a SLOPE OF HOPE. Both statements imply ever-present DOUBT.

In investing, I find it useful to reduce complex problems into simple questions. Is there a loch ness monster? Does bigfoot live or not? Are UFO's and aliens for real? Is silver going to appreciate more than gold on a percentage basis? These simple questions are answered with a simple YES or NO period!! There is a great body of information to support both sides of the above issues. I think of them as two huge mountains. Two mountrains of scientific reports, eye witnesses, expert commentary, video clips, zodiac charts, rumors, public opinion polls etc. There are YES and NO mountains. BUT ULTIMATELY, ONLY ONE OF THE MOUNTAINS IS VALID. The other is wrong and should be trashed. In practice, I am always opened to some outside force entering the equation and use stop loss strategies. (Whenever anyone in life has shown me that my thinking has been wrong about anything, I wholeheartedly thank them and immediately latch on to the new-improved information.) But, I also force myself to ACT on my yes or no questions instead of just debating them forever.

My personal conclusion: Silver is still in the very early stages of a giant bull market and will outperform gold before it's over; even surpassing gold in price for a time.

..................

Especially for R Powell

65. As the worldwide bear market in equities grinds onward, advisory services, brokerage houses, pension fund managers, mutal fund managers, certified financial planners and investment advisors will increasingly come under the gun for non-performance. More and more, if these PAID PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVISORS want to keep their accounts, jobs, commissions and bonuses they WILL BE COMPELLED TO BUY THE POSITIVE PERFORMANCE OF THE PM SECTOR (whether they like it or not). For them, the new mantra will be, "Buy or Die".

66. With rare exceptions, all of the PM's (gold, silver and platinum), appear to be "joined at the hip" and have historically moved together in price. The market outlook for platinum is presently neutral (1-03). However, gold appears to be in the early stages of a strong bull market that is supported by excellent fundamentals. DUE TO THE INTERRELATIONSHIP OF THE PM FAMILY, A MAJOR MOVE INTO GOLD WILL AUTOMATICALLY FUEL A CORRESPONDING BUYING INTEREST N SISTER SILVER.

67. A precious metals INVESTOR is an individual who buys precious metals with the expectation of selling in the future for a profit. There are genearally three classes of precious metal investors that will emerge: the un-informed-wealthy, the smart-wealthy, and *joe-sixpack-amateur-investor. When the inevitable wave of PM investment buyuing begins, the un-informed-wealthy will buy gold because it is going up and that's what they always buy. The smart-wealthy will buy a higher percentage of silver over gold-platinum because SILVER WILL OFFER A HIGHER PERCENTAGE RETURN. When JOE-SIXPACK-amateur-investor starts is investment buying, he will choose silver over gold-platinum because he GETS MORE FOR HIS MONEY. Conclusion: By all accounts, SILVER WILL WIN THE PM INVESTMENT POPULARITY CONTEST. Evidence of this scenario playing out wil be observed in a narrowing of the gold-silver ratio.

*Footnote to Joe-Sixpack: In 15 years of talking the stock market with novice investors, one particular phenomenon has happened virtually 100% of the time. Given the same industry, tell Joe about company X selling for $1 per share and company Y selling for $30 a share. He will want to buy the one dollar stock EVERY SINGLE TIME even though the higher priced stock may, for any number of concrete reasons, holds exceptional promise for a greater PERCENTAGE return. (I have never been a stockbroker ... but I talk the market)

..................

Constructive criticisms welcomed. Happy New Year to us!
Goldrush
(01/01/2003; 16:47:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93137)
Oil shocker
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhNzOxO6Q3J1ZGUgSydney, Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures may rise when trading opens later today, after the American Petroleum Institute reported the biggest decline in U.S. inventories in 13 weeks.

Supplies last week dropped 9.1 million barrels, or 3.2 percent, to 277.5 million barrels, the report showed. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected a decline of between 2.1 million and 2.6 million barrels, after a strike in Venezuela disrupted shipments from the fourth-biggest source of U.S. oil imports.

The decline left inventories close to a 26-year low reached in October.

``This move is entirely attributable to the strike in Venezuela,'' said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy risk management at Fimat USA Inc. in New York. ``Inventories had held up well until now. Finally, we're seeing evidence of the missing oil in the inventory reports.''
______
Goes along with BB forecast
ski
(01/01/2003; 17:30:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93138)
What will we ultimately call the depression??


Black Blade ... always enjoy your posts .... but I have an issue .... I'm such a pain.

CATCH PHRASES appear all over history: "The War to End All Wars", "I Have a Dream", "Hippies", "Stock Market Bubble", "Bubblevision", "New Ager's", "Generation X", "Read My Lips", "Follow the Money", "The Great Depression" etc.

In most cases, the CATCH PHRASE that stays in usage is the one that "say's it best".

Black Blade, you see the hard times and have called it the "New Great Depression". However, you may not be aware of it, but, around 15 years ago, Doug Casey also saw the coming problems and gave it the name, "The Greater Depression". His catch phrase imples depression and that it will be more intense than the last.


Which "say's it best"???

1. New Great Depression
2. The Greater Depression

I like you ....... but I also like #2 better!! "Would You Rather Fight or Switch?" (catch phrase from an old cigarette commercial)


Black Blade
(01/01/2003; 17:34:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93139)
Silver shoots up on reduced arrival
http://www.outlookindia.com/pti_news.asp?id=108747
Snippit:

Silver prices shot up on the bullion market today on fresh buying by local parties amidst restricted arrival which created tight stocks position and closed with significant gains. Gold, on the other hand, after showing losses in the last two trading sessions on stockists selling, emerged with moderate gains on local buying. Marketmen said silver gained strength on fresh buying amidst tight stocks postiions as most of the overseas market remained closed for winter break and new year celebrations and blocked the supply. They said gold was better on reports of hightened tension between US allies and Iraq and triggered buying by stockists considering it to be a safe haven during such type of crisis.

Black Blade: This one's for the Silver Bugs. Demand continues to be strong in India and will strengthen for all PMs as we enter the Asian Wedding Season.

Black Blade
(01/01/2003; 17:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93140)
Re: ski

Having never smoked Tarringtons I see no reason to switch, however, I use the phrase "New Great Depression" for lack of any mainstream phrase to identify the deepening recession and economic shocks that are sure to rip through the economy going forward. Some may be saying much the same when they refer the the "Secular Bear Market" as stated by David Tice among others when referring to the declining stock markets. But it may be true that we are closing in on a "The Greater Depression". Actually I like it! - The phrase that is.

Cheers!

- Black Blade
Goldrush
(01/01/2003; 17:55:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93141)
R Powell
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2619997.stmI also watch for news on silver and have come across a story
on silver boards that has been making the rounds.

It says a threatened mining industry strike in Poland has
juiced silver prices recently. I have had trouble tracking this
down as I never realized Poland was a big silver producer.

Here is what I found> apparently Poland produces about
35 million oz of silver. Perhaps others could clarify this
number. In any case here are some sites to view.

http://www.kghm.pl/en/firma05.php

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2619997.stm

I own gold and silver. I have heard also the saying that
platinum goes first, then gold, and lastly silver.
As gold gets more expensive "poor mans" gold becomes
a more affordable substitute.

Black Blade
(01/01/2003; 18:01:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93142)
Gold Starts Year Off Negative
http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=1&sBackUrl=&dbrushwidth=&charttype=&gd1=&gd2=&benchmark=∈fos=∈dtype1=∈dtype2=&volumen=
Gold took a quick spike lower in OZ tonight (see link) as most players are out of the market until next week. The Tocom will open on Monday. Should be fun to watch the few players not nursing hangovers puch the POG around.

- Black Blade
Goldrush
(01/01/2003; 18:01:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93143)
Company claims to be 2nd largest producer of silver
http://www.kghm.pl/en/oferta02-5.phpKGHM Polska Miedz S.A.

http://www.kghm.pl/en/oferta02-5.php

Link above takes you to the web page
that makes the claim.
Arcticfox
(01/01/2003; 18:02:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93144)
Prepare for the Meltup - Gold
http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/market/news/CliveMaund/1041453016.phpSnip..

By: Clive Maund, Diploma Technical Analysis

Gold's impressive breakout in December provided the final confirmation, if any were needed, that it is in a bull market.
Christian
(01/01/2003; 18:31:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93145)
Massive deflation is invitable
The creation of $ trillions, created $ trillions of debt, and now the interest and principal on those debts is killing the economy. In 1997 interest cost took 23% of profits and in 2002 it took 100%. We have a national declining income and a rising debt service. We have a rising GDP measure which can not measure nor make a distiction between what is good for a society and what is bad. Turning this country into an economic concentration camp on tax payers expense will increase the GDP. Bush Senior is right when he said the American people are fodder units. You know what happens to fodder. Debt sure can reduce a persons net worth when collateral is falling in price. Greenspan is now forced to monetize gold in an attempt to save the real economy that is not even in the GDP measure. Monetizing homes will turn into a disaster just like monetizing other countries was. Monetizing Iraq will turn into a disaster. Gettin rid of the Iraqi dictator would be a good thing if only we didn't need the their oil to add to our GDP.
Mr. Bill
(01/01/2003; 18:39:24 MDT - Msg ID: 93146)
@ski msg#: 93136 � Silver mountains
Now I can understand your many points about how silver just has to go to the moon. But I do have one minor problem. It seems like the total amount of silver produced since day one is in the neighborhood of 40 billion ounces. After WWII there was somewhere around 6 to 10 billion ounces around. And I will give you the point that it was all consumed, although I still believe things like silver eagles are not consumed.

Now silver was always money, just like gold. And I believe everyone accepts the fact that most of the gold mined is still around somewhere. After all, you do not throw precious metals in the garbage. So where is the 25 to 30 billion ounces of silver that were money prior to WWII.
Black Blade
(01/01/2003; 18:44:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93147)
Petroleum Runs Higher, Gold Lower
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/mktcom.asp
The USD is lower as is Gold, but Oil and NatGas surge as the New Year starts. Should be interesting when a real market opens.

- Black Blade
donnemuir
(01/01/2003; 18:48:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93148)
Contest
WOW!!! what a lucky guess...and great way to start the New Year...Thanks to MK our host and to Sir Gandalf for his play-by-play.

And Thanks to all the regular posters; they have made this the premier forum on the net.

Have prosperous New Year...get a load of gold (& silver).

donnemuir
Carl H
(01/01/2003; 18:51:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93149)
Ski: Reasons #61-64
Ski, Could you post reasons 61-64. Thanks!
R Powell
(01/01/2003; 18:51:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93150)
Ski // Black Blade // Goldrush
Thanks guys for the heads up on silver news.

Ski, I have your impressive list printed out and will add the latest additions. I agree with the "wall of worry" theory and have found myself trading more cautiously of late. Maybe I still can't really believe it's REALLY starting. Tuesday's trading saw a 20 cent range in silver. I need to steel myself for wider swings and the inevitable pullbacks that we'll see.

Black Blade, supply shortages, real or perceived, will probably be the strongest of all factors in the up/down equation, at least until an all out mania ensues. If so, that will be something to behold!

Goldrush, your info sent me to my trusty Silver Survey where I found (page 149) Poland listed as having produced over 37 million ounces in 2001 and over 30 million every year from 1995 on. The company you mentioned is listed (page 152) as the second largest supplier (second to Industrias Penoles). I remember (from somewhere?) that this Polish company is primarily a copper producer so this silver is by-product. This is not unusual.
Thanks again to all
Rich
mikal
(01/01/2003; 19:07:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93151)
@Mr. Bill
Good points. And "where went the 25 - 30 billion ounces of Ag that were money prior to WWII?" I have a couple of those ;) Great keepsakes when they're not melted and a piece of history.
But what business does the U.S. government have in depleting the strategic silver stockpile down to nothing? In a nation #1 in munitions production, high-tech and security consciousness? You and I know.
slingshot
(01/01/2003; 19:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93152)
Happy New Year
Happy New Year to all at the forum.

Congratulations to the Winners of the Contest.

Slingshot-----------------<>
sector
(01/01/2003; 19:32:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93153)
Mr. Bill: "Where did the silver go?"
A good portion of it was permanently consumed......by the largest single application useful for silver. The photosensitization of imaging film. Silver halide in double-sided X-Ray film and consumer photography applications constitute the largest group of marginally recoverable silver.

Due to archival regulations stipulating long medical file holding periods [Most five years, many lifetime] medical silver recovery is not a significant pool of scrap metal that affects the market as central bank holdings do for gold.

Why did the US sell its once mammoth stockpile? Ask former President Clinton. Wager that he traded some or all of it for gold at 50 to 1 ratios...gold that he then sold below market prices.

The LBMA silver trading volume intersects zero late in the first Quarter of 2003.

There is only one metric that can raise this LBMA trading volume�a rising price.
silvercollector
(01/01/2003; 19:46:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93154)
Black Blade
Dear Sir,

May I ask if you hold shares of any Canadian natural gas companies?
Mr. Bill
(01/01/2003; 19:48:30 MDT - Msg ID: 93155)
@sector msg#: 93153
Not likely. Prior to WWII the world was not overly industrialized. So, much consumption of silver could not have occurred. In fact, it took almost 60 years of massive industrialization just to get rid of 6 to 10 billion ounces. Prior to WWII virtually no silver was consumed in the industrial sense. It is still out there.
mikal
(01/01/2003; 20:04:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93156)
(No Subject)
Re: Ag strategic stockpile You: "wager that he traded some or all of it for gold..." I do not wager with my investments if I can help it. But I cannot imagine that Clinton would have the authority or motive to do that.
And even a coalition of U.S. officials is powerless against the wishes of the puppetmasters, who yield a full compliment of "tools of persuasion".
More likely it dissappeared directly to the stockpiles of those most knowledgable of it's strategic value, most able to ration it and further accumulate and "manage" it.
Black Blade
(01/01/2003; 20:10:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93157)
Re: silvercollector

Actually I hold shares of only a few NatGas companies such as Devon Energy (DVN), and Questar (STR) as well as the Fidelity Natural Gas Select Fund (FSNGX), and NatGas trusts such as Dominion Resources (DOM) and San Juan Basin Trust (SJT). I have shares in other energy sectors as well such as USEC (USU), Amerigas Partners (APU), Ferrell Gas Partners (FGP), Northern Border Partners (NBP), as well as a few Utes, and recently El Paso (EP) and Williams Co. (WMB). However, I don't have any shares of companies that are specific to Canada. Most of what I do have pay out good dividends and funds from operations (FFOs) for current income � though I probably should actively look for work one of these days, but that would cut into my gym time and my hunting and fishing.

Cheers!

- Black Blade
sector
(01/01/2003; 20:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93158)
@mikel "Clinton Didn't have the authority to sell silver?"
Who had the authority to sell it? Perhaps......you imagine it was sold by the Tooth Fairy? It's gone...or perhaps you are going to disput that fact?

Check the USGS site for the years and tonnage of US silver export. The Defense Silver Stockpile was sold by order of the resident just as the coming purchase of silver has been approved by order of the President. Post your e-mail and I will send you a nice chart of the relevant periods of silver loss.

As for Presidential precious metals sales and/or loans or swaps see the goldensextant.com for the full history of gold swaps complete with FOMC tracnscript testimony from three Federal Reserve officials, Angell, Mattingly and others. The Fed reports it has 8,000 tonnes but they have swapped a portion of it. No one knows how much has been swapped and with whom.

[Mr. Bill] the greatest single user of silver is the medical and consumer photography sector. If you need a clue as to the amout involved, visit your nearest mid-sized hospital and peek at their film library...there's your silver. In case you haven't noticed the world population is a bit larger than it was in 1960.

I'm sorry Mr. Bill if that fact disturbs you. I didn't mention the pre-WWII era as a user of silver...I didn't need to.

There isn't any mountain of silver just waiting to crush a silver rally...anywhere. I'm also sorry if that fact disturbs you.

There may be deals with Mexican producers but no huge stash in Vienna or Genova or even Budapest.
mikal
(01/01/2003; 20:44:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93159)
@sector
You have short memory and put words in my mouth. It was "traded silver for gold" that was being discussed, not whether he sold any. Don't count on tooth fairies.
ski
(01/01/2003; 21:02:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93160)
Approaching Silver Forces #61-64


Carl H #93148

When I add a new "Approaching Force For Higher Silver Prices", I sometimes "plug them in" to my own list where they "read logically" rather then just adding them the end. With this in mind, I THINK, (but am not positive), that this is what you want.

...................

61. For eons, top brokerage houses, astute financial advisors and professional money managers have RECOMMENDED a baseline 5-20% PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION into precious metals. Partly due to the lengthy, worldwide bull market in equities and the extended bear market in precious metals, this sage advice has been largely ignored in recent years. A return to this prudent guideline will equate to an increase in PM demand.

62. The prophecy that "China is a sleeping giant" is certainly proving to be true. As a group, CHINESE PEOPLE are not only extremely hard-working but they also RANK AT THE TOP AS SAVERS. Furthermore, they have more experience with the pitfalls of paper currency than any other nation. The combination of the above factors clearly suggest a future, high level of precious metal demand.

63. A great speculator looks for "REVERSE BUBBLES." (the exact opposite of BUBBLES or MANIAS), where everything that can possibly go wrong over an extended period of time (at least several years) HAS and the bear has fed upon itself to a point of hyper pessimism. The still viable investment will be on sale for 90% off or more. All competing market forces are ultimaely reflected in one single measurment; the price. The primary evidence of a reverse bubble in silver is that it has been priced below its worldwide cost of production on a multi-year basis. Therefore, SILVER EASILY QUALIFIES AS A REVERSE BUBBLE.

64. By all CONTRARIAN AND PSYCHOLOGICAL MEASURES, the outlook for silver just doesn't get any better. This essential ingredient of all modern societies is thoroughy un-loved, un-wanted, un-appreciated and un-heard of by the mainstream. (Who can name a single silver mining company?) Its stellar investment merits are un-popular and completely un-recognized in the investment community at large to the point that nobody cares and nobody wants to know. Profound, unwarranted pessimism is at the heart of all historically important bull markets.

...............


miscellaneous info:

At the recent PM conference in San Francisco, a consensus of the experts said that the only people in the PM markets so far are the professionals.

I recently read that only 1% of portfolios contain a position in PM's. This should be confirmed by other sources before it is believed.

I recall way back when that when the Chinese gold market was going to open. It was mentioned that platinum and silver would also trade. Does anyone have any info on this possibility?

It was reported that banning certain wood preservatives is being DISCUSSED (and is not yet law). A silver based preservative with a projected annual usage of 100 million ounces was given. I don't think this has happened yet but worth watching.

Where has every ounce of the historically, mined silver gone? No human being could ever answer a question like this. The next best approach is to look for worldwide, stored silver inventories. Ted Butler has proposed this question for years and no large, previously unknown inventories have ever turned up. Only the KNOWN inventories are showing depleation.

The only two sources of a large supply of silver that I could DREAM UP are: 1. Russia ..... How much did they stockpile during the Cold War era? How much has not been smuggled out of the country and sold on the open market. 2. Will someone ever figure out how to get silver out of seawater?

When history books are written about the coming PM price boom, what bull market started first ... gold or silver? We have forgotten that silver bottomed at $3.50 some years back and has slowly been working its way up since then. Strict textbook, technical analysis says that silver led gold higher.

I've said enough .....




erayboy
(01/01/2003; 21:27:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93161)
SKI - Silver Facts / Rules - Approaching Silver Forces #61-64
Ski:

Is there any online repository of this collected wisdom?

I'm adding silver since I, also, believe it will surpass GOLD percentage-wise, and perhaps even price-wise as it may become a rather scarce but essential industrial metal for its antibiotic and super-conductive properties -- and it is consumed not stored as is GOLD.

Thx.

ER
R Powell
(01/01/2003; 21:43:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93162)
Missing silver
There is still an unknown and unknowable amount of silver in this world in coins, silverware, jewelry, works of art, old electronic equipment, old photographic records, etc. Who can say or even guess how much has been mined during the last 5000 years or longer? I don't think anyone was even interested enough to venture a guess at this question until relatively recently. The CPM group first published a Silver Survey in 1971. I'm sceptical of their numbers but after asking silver analysts to back up the numbers they have been using, they all cited this source.

Silver, as Mr. Bill says, certainly exists but in what forms? At what price do coins get melted down? Perhaps Physicalman can help here as he mentioned he was involved with coin melt years ago.
How much higher does POS go before grandma's tea set goes for melt? How many coins got melted during the 1979-1980 price spike? How many remaining are held for nummismatic value (much higher than melt value)? At what price do fine antique silver art pieces go?
And, assuming POS reaches the "collect and melt" value, how long will this take in a market starved for immediate supply?

From the Survey (sorry to keep refering here but it's about the only source)...
"At the end of 2001, bullion banks are estimated to have totaled 311.2-496.2 million ounces, while investor holdings of silver coins totaled 467.5 million ounces."

And again (page 13)..
"Extensive efforts over many years to identify errors in these estimates and to improve on them has led to the conclusion that, while relatively small corrections may be made, there are no massive, untold, secret inventories of silver anywhere in the world that have not been taken into account in these statistics."

Also, the U.S. government held silver now gone, although an impressive number, does not include normal production, recovery or the coins melted already.
When analysing existing supply, Buffett's 1997-1998 purchase of 129.7 million ounces is always counted but did he get the whole load or, after taking delivery of 89 million ounces (which initiated a lawsuit), did he take paper leases for the remainder? Does he still hold this stash?
So many questions, so little knownledge!
Thoughts?
Rich



R Powell
(01/01/2003; 22:06:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93163)
Ski (93160)
In regard to #64, I've come to exactly the same conclusion, namely, that we are, in reality, a small group. Even those that do trade are mostly totally unaware of even a small number from your list. They simply try to read the charts, waves, the heavens or chicken entrails (Rhode Island Reds work best) or just follow the trend.
It's been my attempt to analysis the analysts that caused me to ask the forum for help in searching for any worthwhile fundamental news. It would not surprise me to see POS double before the market wakes up to the laws of supply and demand.
I don't mean to sound cocky and arrogant in this belief but I still have not found any plausible explanation to change my opinion that silver is and has been in a deficit situation. Its use is inelastic and supply is tight enough that some analysts are guessing at the time when existing supplies will be completely exhausted! Gold is finally getting some attention in the mainstream press as it should but silver....? What are we overlooking? Are we wrong because we're missing something?
Thanks, Rich
Goldrush
(01/01/2003; 22:13:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93164)
Can you believe this???? OUTRAGEOUS!
washingtonpost.com

U.S. Drops Report On Mass Layoffs
Data Helped States Track Patterns of Industrial Demise

By Kirstin Downey
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, January 2, 2003; Page D11


Citing a shortage of money, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will stop publishing information about factory closings across the country, a decision that some state officials and labor leaders are protesting.

The monthly Labor Department analysis, known as the Mass Layoffs Statistics report, detailed where workplaces with more than 50 employees closed and what kinds of workers were affected.

"We have finite resources," said Mason M. Bishop, deputy assistant secretary for the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration, which has been paying about $6.6 million a year for the BLS report.

The department made the announcement on Christmas Eve, as a note on its November -- and final -- report.

The report said U.S. employers initiated 2,150 mass layoffs in November, with workers in manufacturing most affected. About 240,000 workers lost their jobs, it said.

Bishop said that the Labor Department had only $30 million for its dislocated-worker demonstration project, and that it could no longer afford the report. "We believe we need to be funding programs that get people back to work," he said.

Some state officials, who help compile data for the report, criticized the decision. They said the monthly reports helped them steer unemployed people to jobs in new industries.

"In the current recession, MLS data have increased in value and are being followed and evaluated more closely," Catherine B. Leapheart, president of the National Association of State Work Force Agencies, wrote in a letter to Labor Secretary Elaine L. Chao. "The states have come to rely on this information as an economic indicator and a tool for operational decisions on service delivery and funding allocations for dislocated-worker programs."

State officials around the country said they were surprised and unhappy to hear the report was canceled.

"In these times when the economy is in transition, knowing what's going on and who it's going on to, is critical," said Harry E. Payne Jr., chairman of the North Carolina Employment Security Commission. "It's an axiom of human nature that you focus on what you can measure. Now they are taking away a measure."

Payne said North Carolina has been hard hit by plant closings, including those by textile and fiber-optics companies that have moved jobs overseas. He said the program was the only national, standardized source of data tracking plant closings, allowing states to compare their manufacturing layoffs with those of other states.

"To give it up is just awful," said Beverly Gumola of the Illinois Department of Employment Security. State officials use the data to determine "which occupations are going kaput," she said.

Christine L. Owens, director of public policy for the AFL-CIO, whose member unions have been hard hit by the loss of manufacturing jobs, said eliminating the report is an example of a "let-them-eat-cake approach" by the Bush administration.
___________
Hide the bone pile!!!
Welcome to 1984 all over agin.
Geeez
physicalman
(01/01/2003; 22:51:49 MDT - Msg ID: 93165)
everybody--silver
I wanted to give some more figures on silver to complement what i have already posted earlier.
Even though everyone agrees that widespread 3rd level( or modern) industrialization came about after WWII there was heavy use of silver for industrial, photographic and electrical uses from just after the Civil War up until WWII. Thanks to technology a roll of 24exp. film has about 1/100 oz. of ag. compared to earlier films with 1/5 to 1/16 oz. at earlier times for comparable films. Up until the mid-seventies most industrial silver was not recycled so all that film, ind. switches, wires, contacts, plus all the war equipment that was shot down, sank, blown up and abandoned in all the conflicts of the 20th century. As i stated earlier in the 1880's to the start of WWII America electrified, first in the cities, then industrial plants and don't forget all the telephones and telegraph and teletype machines and switching devices. So there was a lot of industrial use of silver before 1945 and most of it is long buried in the dump, at sea etc. etc.
As for the 6 billion oz. that US had at the end of WWII 90% of that was used to mint coinage and redeem silver cert. in the early sixties. When the modern commerative coin program was started in 1982 there was only143 million oz. left and in 1986 when the eagles started to be minted there was only 126 million oz. that is almost gone.
When i was buying silver in 1979 all the bags that i filled up were sold to a refiner (they paid more because ind. users were calling up and guaranteeing to buy anything the refiners were contracting for ( I weighed the bags and deducted 10% for alloy, called them up, they quoted a price, i delivered in 3 days and they had it sold before they had even smelted it) a lot of the bags only figured out to 620 to 665 oz. of silver because of wear.
Another thing to look at is that recycling is much more efficient in the last 20 years and with that we still have a 10 million an oz. shortage per month. Even with a slowing economy the deficit will still be there because base metal mining accounts for the large majority of new mine production. Large worldwide copper producers shut down 30% of world copper mine production to stem surplus and price declines in late 2000 and 2001.
As for what is left available in the world you can go by known large stockpiles or estimated holdings of all types.
India by far has the largest silver stockpile (est. 3 billion oz.) but it is in the hands of 100's of millions and is not feasonably available at current prices. Say there are 1 billion oz. in the US in small private hands in the form of older 90% coinage, Obsolete coll. coins from early 20th and 19th centuries and in coll. bars, rounds, large bars and modern comm. coinage. We will give China credit for 1 billion oz. (they have valued silver historically) Say 300 million for Buffet, the Comex and another large unknown holder. 200 million oz. in South America and a 1/2 billion in Europe, Russia, Central Asia, Africa and Austrialia. Plus we will throw in another 1/2 billion for good measure.
Thats 6.5 billion oz. about an oz. for everyone on the planet. Plus another variable to consider is there has been a 10-12 million oz. per month deficit for the last 12 years and there were mining deficits to new demand since 1965. Alot of production of silver then was remelting of existing coinage because it was worth more than face.
These are rough est. of mine but i have been in silver for 35 years (don't claim to know everything but i have learned a few things) What happens when fiat paper starts to burn and gold and silver starts to be seen as money to more and more people all over the world. If all the silver and gold ever mined in the history of modern man was still available do you think it would be enough to satisfy modern monetary demands
Silver-41 billion oz. 6.7oz. per person
Gold-4.3 billion oz. 2/3 oz. per person

Remember that strategically formed lead may be just as important in the future for those of us that understand history and have some vision.
IMVHO
physicalman
(01/01/2003; 23:11:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93166)
more silver
In 79 i went through approx. 350 bags of silver plus bars, gold and jewelry, 95% was sold by me to be melted. I stopped dealing after being robbed in Ken. for over 6 figures. It got to dangerous to advertise. Some of the larger dealers i know went through 100 bags a day and lots of that got melted. I would say that 75% of the bags that are left were bought at the top and are only sold by those who have got to old,died (heirs sold it) or those who have given up. In the late 70's lots of mid-size dealers would have dozens of bags in stock, very few of today's dealers do, mostly the market-makers.
Carl H
(01/01/2003; 23:29:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93167)
R Powell: Devil's Advocate Against Silver
You ask a very good question: What are we overlooking? Are we wrong because we're missing something?

For the sake of discussion here, I will play the opposite side as Ski and speak out against silver. For the record, 50% of our net worth is in silver bullion or silver mining stocks.

So what could we be missing....

First, consider that The Powers That Be are probably better informed than we are as to what the situtation is in silver.

Second, consider that because of the psycological connection to gold and the existance of the gold derivatives bomb, they do not want the price of silver to rise.

Third, please grant me the assumption that The Powers That Be are very very clever, and very ruthless.

Ok, now let me step into their shoes for a moment and see what I would do in their shoes to keep silver under control. I would view the problem as having three components, supply, demand and stockpiles.

1. Supply is very difficult to increase. About 80% comes as a byproduct of mining base metals. Under modest price fluctuations this supply is price insensitive. I can think of two ways to increase production. First, some of the primary silver miners could be subsidized (covertly or overtly) to reduce their cost of production. Second, the management of the primary silver miners could be pressured/bribed into making decisions to increase production that might not be in the long term interests of the shareholders.

2. Much of the demand is price inelastic because the silver is needed for one or more of it's remarkable properties. The only significant application that I see where this is not the case is jewlry/tableware. Hence, I would encourage the sale of fake silver jewlry. (I believe that this has already been detected. -- Anyone know the status?)

Longer term, I would be actively pushing digital photography. Technologies tend to be adopted in what is called an S-curve formation. That is to say that the first few people adopt slowly and then there is a rush and the last few adopt slowly. I think that in the US digital photography is definitely in the rush stage. For TPTB this is goodness.

Also longer term, I would make sure that the legislation for silver impreginated lumber tests dies a horrible death. Preferrably with it's sponsors.

3. Stockpiles -- Well, I recall reading that Mr. Buffett was coerced out of his first corner on the silver market due to his involvement with Solomon Bros. and that mess. Were I TPTB, I would be again putting pressure on him. I would also be identifying any other stockpiles and figuring out how to put pressure on the appropriate people to bring them to market. (The Vatican comes to mind as a likely holder of silver.)

I would also keep tabs on anyone accumulating a large stockpile and -- discourage it. (A millionaire that had 46tons of Silver recently wound of dead...)

Finally, I would, above all, try to maintain the perception of everything being OK and trying to keep investors disinterested. PHYSICAL Investment demand could blow this whole thing up in no time.

OK, fire away, no rotten eggs please...
steady
(01/01/2003; 23:45:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93168)
piling on
got gold, give it a silver lining!
silver and gold honest money for honest people!
ski
(01/01/2003; 23:58:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93169)
More on Silver



erayboy #93161 "Is there any online repository of this collected wisdom?"

Not yet that I can share that I am aware of.

.................

R. Powell #93163 "We (silver bulls) are in reality, a small group."

A little story to confirm this observation. While I was at the San Francisco Gold Conference a month ago, I sat down to compare silver notes with the primary public relations rep from one of two silver miners there. Just in passing, I mentioned to him that in recent "Daily Market Report" at Finaancial Sense.Com, Jim Puplava had done a piece on a huge short position that had developed in all of the silver mining stocks. I noted that at some point these shorts were going to have to cover and that would help all of the silver stocks. The rep then told me that HE HAD BEEN THE ONE THAT HAD ORIGINALLY DISCUSSED THIS WITH JIM PUPLAVA. As the story went, the rep had been polking around and had done a routine check on the "short interest" in his companies stock. He discovered the unusually large number and had mentioned this to Puplava. Evidently Puplava ran the numbers for the other silver miners that were posted in his "Daily Market Report."

Upon taking part in the above, my first thought was that the universe of knowledgeable, silver market experts is much smaller than I had previously believed! Certainly, this one story doesn't entirely PROVE-OUT our suspicions, but it does shed some interesting light on the subject.

............

It has been noted in the past that several of the world's wisest/wealthiest investors have taken large positions in silver. But what hasn't been noted is that it appears as though several of the WISEST FINANCIAL NEWSLETTER WRITERS have also chosen silver over gold. There are probably a couple hundred financial newsletter writers out there. In my book, there is only a handful that are at the top of their industry and should be listened too. I greatly value the conclusions and recommendations of the following writers (in no particular order): Jim Dines, Doug Casey, Bob Chapman and Jim Puplava. (I also like Bob Prechter but only on the stock market.) These leading professionals all appear to have chosen silver over gold yet few seem to have noticed. Incidently, think of the above as an editorial.



24carat
(01/02/2003; 00:46:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93170)
thought on silver
I purchased 500 silver bullion rounds from an extemely reputable and large volume dealer over a month ago. They were advertized for immediate delivery and I thought that meant the goods were on hand. They have yet to be delivered and the dealer explained that the private mint was behind in their deliveries. Any number of interpetations can be drawn from the above, but I am certain of the integrity of the dealer as I have been a client for several years. My conclusion is that the just in time inventory methods in place will eventually experience a tightness that drives the price much higher. But, I'm a silver bull and as they say in Mexico "Ole".
Ag Mountain
(01/02/2003; 01:02:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93171)
Great heaps of discussion on silver
What's the latest word on pork bellies?

You know what they say in the pits... "Silver is the gold man's pork belly." When you've got security, does everyone become a dice man? It sure looks like it, or else have the gamblers just crowded the gold genius guys out of town?
ski
(01/02/2003; 01:15:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93172)
Silver insider actions?


Carl H #93167 "How the insiders will hold the silver price down....??"

I have aready given some thought to what the silver insiders might do. It was the first entry on my list ...... "Approaching Forces for Higher Silver Prices #1 The same PROFESSIONAL DEALERS and INSIDERS that have done so much structural damage on the downside will surely be positioned to capitalize on the upside. At the very least, their personal accounts will somehow be properly positioned. These peole are just too big, powerful, smart and well connected to let this stellar opportunity pass them up. Their activities are not simply analogous to holding a lifejacket underwater but rather holding a helium filled balloon underwater. It (the silver price), not only wants to break the surface but also wants to fly to the moon."

Carl, I don't have any idea who these people are and I don't want to meet them if they are for real. I don't automatically label them as evil. I have just ASSUMED that there are a few people at the epicenter of the silver market. I also assume that there are insiders at the epicenter of VIRTUALLY EVERY MARKET. After all, what is the primary responsibility of ANY CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER OF ANY PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANY?? If he doesn't know the true financial condition of his firm, what are they paying him for?

Haven't you seen the recent Barron's commercial. "The market goes up ..... you make money. The market goes down ..... you make money." Logic suggests that an insider would only want to know the FUTURE DIRECTION of the market. Whether is goes up or down is unimportant.

Let me reduce this to its simplest terms. Tell me ONLY ONE THING. Tell me the DIRECTION that Disney stock will trade on the first trading day of every year .... and I will be on easy street for the rest of my life. In the case of rising silver prices, why bother take a chance of standing in front of the runaway, silver freight train? It just doesn't make good sense. Instead, why not just make sure that I climb aboard while many will be left at the station??

.............

Speaking of commercials ..... I like the T.D. Waterhouse ones that say, "You should LEARN before you invest." Why didn't they say that in 1982? And, isn't LEARNING one of the reasons that we hang out here??

I've had fun today!!

The Invisible Hand
(01/02/2003; 01:31:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93173)
Drudge highlights Another's thesis with picture
http://www.drudgereport.com/
Euro match: dollar set for [A]nother tough year on the markets

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1039524085845&p=1012571727088
SNIP
The dollar has been falling even though most economic forecasters have predicted that growth in the eurozone this year and for the foreseeable future will be weaker than in the US.
Black Blade
(01/02/2003; 01:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93174)
Poll says many would forgo tax cuts
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B6FDF8C84%2D39D3%2D4006%2DAAD3%2DEDADF808EB72%7D
AP survey finds reluctance to put U.S. in deeper debt

Snippit:

LOS ANGELES (CBS.MW) -- A survey shows that most Americans believe the government should hold off on tax cuts to prevent the country from going deeper into debt. Some 64 percent of those polled said forgoing tax cuts is a good idea, while 28 percent said they favored additional stimulus to give the economy a boost, according to a poll of 1,008 people conducted for the AP by ICR/International Communications Research of Media, Penn.

Black Blade: Unbelievable! Maybe the Government should raise taxes much higher � they should really love that.

Topaz
(01/02/2003; 01:44:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93175)
Hipplebeck, Christian.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=FVXY%2CTYXY%2CGCG3%2CGCM3.=W&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=8&go.y=12Great to see some deflationary posts Guys, (or, lets call it disinflationary....for the time being)
This PoG runup defies the odds and I'm thinking it's contrived to flag a non-existant inflation.
Bond yields are indicating a move to Cash is underway and the Feb/June spreads, despite all the noise, are virtually flat.
DEflation will be flagged when "Backwardisation" becomes the catch-cry on CNBC....shortly!
Goldrush
(01/02/2003; 02:38:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93176)
Bloomberg: Gold best performing funds 2002
Boston, Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. mutual funds devoted to gold were the fund industry's best performers for a second year in 2002. Some of their managers expect the winning streak to be extended this year.

While gold rallied above $350 an ounce in December and reached a 5 1/2-year high, these managers said the metal and shares of gold producers were so badly beaten during the 1990s that they still have room to move higher.

``There hasn't been any big move into gold -- we're not attracting the hot money,'' said Greg Orrell, manager of the Monterey OCM Gold Fund. ``We still sense quite a bit of skepticism. It's still early in this run.''

Orrell's fund rose 92 percent this year and ranked second among all funds. First Eagle SoGen Gold Fund surged 105 percent to set the pace. Funds investing in gold stocks rose 64 percent on average, according to Bloomberg data.

Gold funds have never topped the charts for three straight years since Lipper Inc. began keeping track in 1960. Their last two-year streak occurred in 1986 and 1987, when the U.S. stock market crashed.

Investors added $612 million to the funds this year after withdrawing $9 million last year, according to Financial Research Corp., a Boston-based research firm. Gold funds had net assets of $3.2 billion at the end of November, or about 0.1 percent of the $2.8 trillion in all stock funds.

Benefits of Weakness

The American Stock Exchange's Gold Bugs Index of 11 producers has more than doubled this year after rising 59 percent last year. The index plummeted 75 percent from the end of 1996 to the end of 2000, a period when the price of gold dropped as much as 35 percent.

Gold has benefited from weakness in the U.S. economy, stock market and the dollar as well as a ``flight to quality'' after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, according to Joseph Foster, manager of the Van Eck International Investors Gold Fund, which has gained 86 percent this year.

``There aren't too many investments that do well when others are doing poorly, and gold is one of them,'' Foster told Bloomberg Television in an interview.

The economy grew at an annual rate of less than 2 percent in the first three quarters of 2002. For the full year, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 23 percent, its biggest loss since 1974. The dollar fell 15 percent against the euro and sank 10 percent against the yen.

`Shrinkage of Supply'

Funds also may benefit from reduced gold production, some investors said. Output will fall 2 percent annually in the next five years, according to Gold Fields Mineral Service. Production rose 2 percent a year from 1991 to 2001 after climbing 6 percent a year from 1980 to 1990, the London-based consulting firm said.

Gold miners cut spending on exploration every year from 1997 through 2000, according to Frank Holmes, manager of the US Global Investors Gold Shares Fund.

``Imagine if Microsoft or Pfizer had a huge drop-off in spending on research and development -- that's what it's like,'' Holmes said. ``We're going to have a shrinkage of supply.''

Increasing gold purchases by Chinese investors could bolster the metal in 2003 as well, Orrell said. China began sales of gold bullion to individuals this month for the first time since 1949, when Communists took charge.

Not everyone agrees that gold funds are headed for a third straight year of outperformance. Vanguard Group has barred new investment in its fund, the second largest, since the end of June. The prohibition applies to existing shareholders and retirement accounts, usually exempted from fund closures.

`Chasing Performance'

During the first five months of this year, investors added $124 million to Vanguard's fund, which grew to $480 million of assets. Last year, the fund received $400,000 in new deposits.

``We were very afraid that investors were chasing performance,'' said Rebecca Cohen, a Vanguard spokeswoman.

Cohen pointed to the performance of gold funds during the mid- 1990s as a justification for Vanguard's policy. The average fund rose 9.5 percent in 1995 and 1996, only to drop 48 percent in the next two years, she said. The Valley Forge, Pennsylvania-based firm has no plans to reopen the fund, she said.

Fidelity Investments runs the largest gold fund, and its assets climbed to $504 million at the end of November from $305 million at the end of 2001. The fund gained 61 percent this year.

On the other hand, US Global Investors is gaining only about $250,000 a day in new deposits for its $150 million fund. In the mid-1990s, the fund collected $5 million a day and ballooned to $600 million, said Holmes, the fund's manager.

``At the top of the market, we've always had huge inflows,'' Holmes said. ``We're still not there.''
Black Blade
(01/02/2003; 02:49:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93177)
Market Indicators
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/mktcom.asp
The USD is in strong rally mode tonight rising sharply on a wing and a prayer. Gold is getting hit for a loss over $3 an ounce on bank selling. However, oil and NatGas are sharply higher on oil inventories touching 26 year lows and an ice storm hitting the northeast US and a cold front coming down on the Pac northwest. The US economy looks to take some healthy hits on lowered corporate earnings in coming days and pathetic performances by retailers over the holiday season (the worst in over 24 years). A CNNfn poll reveals that the US consumer is not in very good financial shape:

The question - are you:

Better off than last year? 16%

Worse off than last year? 71%

The same as last year? 13%

- Black Blade
Gold Standard
(01/02/2003; 03:32:49 MDT - Msg ID: 93178)
The "Greater Fool" Theory
Having a bit of spare time on my hands during the Xmas/NY drink-a-thon, beach, barbeques, pool parties and other worthwhile activities, I've been analysing the reasons why gold and silver are, by all accounts, a stellar investment.

Note the use of the word "investment".

Unfortunately, 99% of those who are generally referred to as the "sheeple", do not have any investments. Indeed, they do not have any savings, and each week's income (be it wage, salary or unemployment or other benefits) is used 100% to sustain the standard of living that each currently enjoys.

There is nothing left over at the end of the week. If there is, it is a cautious sheeple who is putting away something to cover a periodical bill.

Unless a sheeple has a savings ethic, not one of them will have a cent left over to "invest" in precious metals.

A particularly circumspect sheeple, who recognises the systemic imbalances in the economy, and who has observed what has happened in Argentina, what is now happening in Brazil and Venezuela, and what may happen throughout South America and the rest of the world, may adjust his/her standard of living (downwards), so as to purchase gold or silver as a hedge against currency degradation.

Most goldbugs, I believe, are investors. That is, they are fortunate enough to have spare economic resources (savings) that may be allocated towards an investment.

It is "investment", and not a desire for protection of one's capital. I seriously doubt whether anyone here has sold their house at the top of the popularly publicised housing market bubble we are currently seeing, and cashed in 100% to purchase gold or silver physical.

It should be noted that if we were all in this to protect our capital, that's exactly what we should be doing, right now! However, in reality, we are "investing" our surplus cash, or alternatively re-deploying our investments, in a belief that gold/silver is going to reward that investment.

Let's pause here, and take a look at that investment.

From a purely investment perspective, gold (and silver) can only work if it "goes to da moon!".

There is no interest, no income, until the underlying asset is sold. That is, unless you are a Central Bank, in which case you are able to lease it out.

We have all seen the lemming-like mantra trotted out by the Wall Street shills with respect to the equity markets, and in the face of Ursa Major, they continue to do so!

+ Buy and hold for the long term

+ Buy in the dips

+ This time it is different!

+ There is always someone who will pay you more in the future! (The Greater Fool Theory)

EACH of these mantra are equally applicable today to gold/silver investment, and are repeated with regularity in all of the forums (forae?). We as goldbugs sneer at the "herd mentality" of the late '90s equity bubble, but blindly follow exactly the same rhetoric in our own investment strategies.

Cloaking our greed as a "capital preservation" mechanism will not wash. It is an investment, pure and simple. After all, we are not "sheeple", are we?

How does gold stack up as an investment? I would say it is a fantastic investment, on one proviso - that ultimately there is a Greater Fool who will take it off your hands.

There is no income, no dividends, and nothing but an hoped-for capital appreciation. What we as investors need to do is to buy low, and sell high. (Rule #1 of investment).

How do we know when to sell? USD $3,000/oz? $33,000/oz?The answer is easy � when the sheeple start selling their houses, and moving 100% into gold/silver, THAT�S when we exit!

After all, we are not the sheeple, we are the goldbugs.

Happy New Year to all � invest wisely!
Black Blade
(01/02/2003; 03:44:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93179)
Ugly!!!
http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=1&sBackUrl=&dbrushwidth=&charttype=&gd1=&gd2=&benchmark=∈fos=∈dtype1=∈dtype2=&volumen=
Looks like another round of light trading taking a toll on Gold this morning. The selling pressure is coming mostly from banks but some speculators are sure to follow. That will help to shake loose of the dead wood.

- Black Blade
Topaz
(01/02/2003; 04:44:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93180)
Gold Standard.
Hello GS,
Obviously a fellow Southern Hemispherite, Summer Xmases and all.
This matter of investment needs a little work. You said:
It is "investment", and not a desire for protection of one's capital. I seriously doubt whether anyone here has sold their house at the top of the popularly publicised housing market bubble we are currently seeing, and cashed in 100% to purchase gold or silver physical.
Do you think it may have a lot to do with an individuals timeline whether their Physical Gold Holdings are viewed as "investments" or "wealth" ?
As a wealth asset an individuals PGH's cease to attach to the currency realm and will be disposed of "as req'd" in the future...(hopefully s l o w l y)
Imo there's potential folly in the expectation of handsome Dollar rewards from PGH's...why just look below to the Goldrush post re: Gold Mutuals....100% gains...that's where to "invest" ...NOT Physical, Gold suck's as an investment!
...and if the wheels fall off in a deflationary collapse you may not even be able to "cash it in"....then what?
I think it's great you're into physical PM's GS and best of luck with them but "profiting" in Dollars/Euros etc is NOT the universal motivation.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/02/2003; 05:00:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93181)
"Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

The dollar has been continuously devalued without stop for the past 57 years. It has
not appreciated against goods and services once -- not even once -- in that entire time period.
There are periods when this policy has not been fully reflected in the price of gold.

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

Marie Ballard Ext 106

We look forward to your inquiry.

 

Renny
(01/02/2003; 05:30:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93182)
Topaz, Gold Standard and all
As far as this world of finance and gold goes I am just a novice. I try to read here when I can but mostly not. I have read A & FOA and have learned a lot. You mention some reasons why folks may want gold, for investment, for wealth asset, etc.

Please let me know if my way of thinking is a good one or not but I think of gold & silver (PM) as an insurance policy. It isn't there for me to wait till the price goes up so I can 'cash in'. It's there for me so that if that world crashes, monetary systems burn and everything goes crazy I'll have something which can be used to get by on, used slowly. I have both gold and silver for this reason. Being one of the little folk I am not a large holder of PM's (less than 100 oz of gold bullion and less than 1000 oz silver bullion) but hopefully enough to do the job if needed.

If these times of chaos and ruin don't arrive then I haven't lost anything, the PM are still there and can be passed on to whomever I choose, completely anonymously. What other 'insurance' can you say that about? But I'd still have had the comfort that if needed I'd had them. And not only that but the buying of them has not taken away from anything else. They (PM's) were bought with completely disposable fiat.

Is my thinking erroneous or am I going about this the correct way? Thanks.
Goldrush
(01/02/2003; 05:44:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93183)
Topaz you should own some physical
Topaz if you buy stock in a cereal company and you don't buy the
cereal, where are the earnings going to come from? If you
believe in the cereal you should buy it, eat it, recommend it to your friends because of its quality, and then buy stock in
the company.

If nobody buys the cereal but many people buy the stock, the
stock is going nowhere. You should buy some physical AND buy some stock. Your stock will go up because there is a demand for the
underlying product. Thankfully asians are buying the physical
and countries like China will provide the physical demand
for the product that miners produce.

Gold Standard- the key bit in the bloomberg article is this:

"Gold funds had net assets of $3.2 billion at the end of November, or about 0.1 percent of the $2.8 trillion in all stock funds."

Can you imagine the impact if that percentage went from .1%
to say 10% of $2.8 Trillion? You are correct, the time to sell is
when everybody starts stampeding into gold and silver.
Thats a ways off yet.

Good Luck to All!
Rock
(01/02/2003; 05:46:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93184)
Quick Question
Both Blackblade and 24 Karat mentioned they had purchased some "rounds" what is a round? Thanks much.

Boilermaker
(01/02/2003; 06:12:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93185)
Rock, Rounds
Silver rounds are used to kill werewolves.

Seriously, they are usually 1oz .999 silver medallions made by miners or private mints that are struck with some sort of design such as commemorative coins. I own some Engelhard "silver prospectors" that have a picture of a prospector panning for gold. I'm not sure why they put a gold prospector on a silver round but it's a nice looking piece.

Cheers,
Boilermaker
Goldrush
(01/02/2003; 06:43:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93186)
Weak labor market
Washington, Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for state unemployment benefits rose more than expected during the Christmas holiday week, reflecting a slowdown in the economic recovery.

States received 403,000 initial jobless claims last week, up from a revised 390,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said. Economists had forecast that claims would rise to 380,000.

Companies have cut jobs as businesses control spending, consumer confidence hangs near a nine-year low, and factories become more efficient. The four-week moving average, which smoothes weekly volatility, rose to 418,750, the highest in three months, from 407,500. It was the third straight reading above the 400,000 mark that economists consider a weak labor market.
Boilermaker
(01/02/2003; 06:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93187)
Spot and Spike
http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=1&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=38&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iISpot & Spike got their butts kicked last night but now they're mad and just got loose again.

Boilermaker
Goldrush
(01/02/2003; 07:40:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93188)
JPM halted trading-news pending
I wonder what this is about? hmmmmm
Buongiorno!
(01/02/2003; 07:55:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93189)
Boilermaker's "Prospector" rounds
Concur this is a great piece--have several myself. In case Sir MK locates a cache, would add to my holdings. Our prospector deserves a place at this table because he represents many things that I admire in others here--courage, tenacity, search for true wealth, and the willingness to endure and persevere. My kind of guy!

Buongiorno!
Boilermaker
(01/02/2003; 08:02:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93190)
Black Blade- Oil report from 1995
http://www.ncseonline.org/NLE/CRSreports/energy/eng-3.cfm?&CFID=6277197&CFTOKEN=26060672snip: "Deficient productive capacity has not yet caused an oil crisis, but that does not mean it never will. Significant increases in future world oil demand will have to be met primarily from Persian Gulf supplies. This is an area with a history of wars, illegal occupations, coups, revolutions, sabotage, terrorism, and oil embargoes. To these possibilities may be added growing Islamist movements with various grievances against the West (and particularly the United States). In Saudi Arabia, the extended royal family may effectively control the movement, or a civil conflict between the two sides could endanger oil production and oil exports. Economically, the demand for and supply of a commodity are balanced by its price. If oil demand rises to levels that are beyond the current sustainable production capacity, or if oil production is constrained, oil prices will rise, somewhat dampening demand. However, since oil is so essential to drive modern society, there will be severe competition for the oil that is produced. Therefore, the price rise will be abrupt as will the adverse world economic repercussions. If the IEA and EIA are correct on the demand side, deficient world oil production capacity may cause an oil crisis in less than 15 years. Political disruptions in Saudi Arabia that constrain oil exports could cause an oil crisis at any time.

In lieu of a technological fix, the encouragement of domestic oil production would help address the economic and security problems associated with increasing foreign oil imports and may provide some limited insurance against a potential future oil crisis. To this end, Congress may wish to consider such measures as restoring the full depletion allowance for new oil wells, eliminating the tax on intangible drilling costs, maintaining or increasing the strategic petroleum reserve, encouraging alternative fuels technology, funding continued Federal and joint Federal-industry research on improved oil exploration and production technologies, pursuing energy efficiency gains, and/or removing existing moratoria on oil development in the most prospective domestic offshore regions and Alaska. While most or all of these actions would create great controversy between and among economic and wilderness values, oil operations have long lead times so Federal decisions would be required rather quickly if they are to significantly affect end of the century domestic oil output. However, given the mature condition of the Nation's oil provinces, even if all of these actions are taken, their contribution to energy security would be limited, as some imported oil still would be needed."


comment:
This excellent 1995 report to Congress suggests among other things that some of Opec's oil reserves may be inflated because production share allocations to each country are partly based on reserve size. If this is the case we can expect some surprises in coming years.
The report contains a good history of oil production and major events along with a discussion of the likely future supply. The summary has recommendations for the US to avoid the situation we now face. Obviously, nothing was done, but then the report did not consider confiscation of oil held by evil producers.

This is a good review of the 1995 oil scene and is still mostly valid today.

Boilermaker
White Rose
(01/02/2003; 08:15:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93191)
Bond prices just fell like a rock, anybody know why?
Gold just dropped and bonds went up. Something is strange!
Tacitus
(01/02/2003; 08:22:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93192)
Responding to Renny
Dear Renny,

I think you have got the idea. Personally, I would own 5-10% of my liquid assets in physical gold. A lot of other people on this site would own more. The problem is that small guys like me can't afford to let our money sit without growing. That is why I have the rest in stocks and bonds, for better or worse. I think for better.

Historically, Gold has matched inflation. In other words, it will buy 20 years from now what it can buy today. Historically then, it gives you zero growth (and zero loss). Stocks on the other hand give you historically 7% real growth and bonds 3.5% real growth. That is if you participated in the total market. So the best way to go is to own an index fund of stocks and one for bonds.

Since diversification is a good idea, keep the gold too. Past returns are no guarantee of future returns. If stocks and bonds tank, you have something. All the same, I'm betting on the U.S. economy, for the long run. Others would differ.

Good luck to you.

Salve,
Tacitus
Truthcaster
(01/02/2003; 08:23:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93193)
Manufacturing Index
I think what's going on today has to with
the manufacturing index it went up from 49.2 to a huge
54.7 That caused gold to drop about 5 bucks and still
falling with the dow now up 170 points. This should be
a fun day.
Goldrush
(01/02/2003; 08:29:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93194)
Truthcaster-yep
Hard to believe, what manuf? JPM settled insurance case
splitting settlement- got 60% from insurers. Even after
E-mails!

Lets see what happens with Brazil loans.
CoBra(too)
(01/02/2003; 08:31:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93195)
Timeless Value
Seems like some want to turn back the clock!

JPm was halted, though declined to comment - apparently it was in front of a judge ruling on the Enron 'insured' deals.

Gold is a bit weaker - Silver holding its own. Compared to what is the pertinent question? To the US $, a jo-jo with descending bias?

After all, we're finally in 2003; Probably the 4th. consecutive year of SM-Losses. Uheard of in any histo(e)-rical sense - believe it, as valuations are still way up in bull market territory.

PM's are just struggling to shake the cobwebs of more than 22 years of bear market blues. The bugs are still terrorized by the CB spiders, fearing yet another web of illusional lies and ambushes.

... Oh, No; The gold is gone from the vaults, or heavily obligated and there are no means left to prolong the delusion and charade of "CB's and counterparties standing ready to dump any (more) Gold into the markets, should it be necessary"!

2003 - As time can't be turned back, will be the year of PM's - as Gold is a timeless value - cb2
Hipplebeck
(01/02/2003; 09:01:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93196)
rising insurance costs in the shearing of the sheep
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhRbSRSoSi5QLiBNJPM gets to lay 60% of the cost of their shinanigans off onto their insurance buddies. Will their insurance premiums go up?
And who pays in the end? stockholders

Once again, the people responsible walk away from their crimes with big money and stockholders pay.

And the stock goes up. Go figure

Rock
(01/02/2003; 09:06:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93197)
Boilermaker
Thanks alot for the info, see you learn something new everyday for those that seek shall find. Cheers...
CoBra(too)
(01/02/2003; 09:08:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93198)
JPM Settles with Insurers - bare one -
At about 60% of claims.

Well that's only about 400 Mill. US Dollars short of original claims. Pretty neat - a few Million here another few Billion there and JPM is still a viable concern.

Maybe concern is the correct word. Concern to whom? May this, after all be the correct, though political in-correct, question?

Maybe the Gold Derivative position, assumed to be the world's largest by far, does not directly affect JPM - as it just may be ... it's some-one else's liability?

Wow, who may that only be? ... Not a CB?

Cheers - cb2
cyberbat
(01/02/2003; 09:28:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93199)
Help anyone
Please give me an unbiased scenerio concerning the endless supply of paper money driving down the price of gold although the physical is in short supply and getting shorter. I'm beginning to wonder if this can go on forever.
Thanks,
Cyberbat
Carl H
(01/02/2003; 09:36:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93200)
Re Ski: Silver
Ok, as last night I'm still playing the devil's advocate against silver.

Ski #93172: "I have aready given some thought to what the silver insiders might do."

While the "insiders" have helped to hold the silver price down, I do not believe that they are the prime factor. If DLA stockpile had not been sold off, they would have been unable to hold the price down with paper.

Ski #93172: "Carl, I don't have any idea who these people are and I don't want to meet them if they are for real."

Perhaps I should define what I mean by the term "The Powers That Be". I would include in this category, the Executive Branch, the Fed, Treasury (including the ESF), CIA, State Department. So, yes, they definitely exist. As far as how clever and ruthless they can be -- they toppeled the Soviet Union by guile and ruthlessness. I believe that the strong dollar policy is a direct outgrowth of that action. I highly recommened the book "Victory" by Peter Schewitzer on this point. It describes how TPTB manipulated the price of oil. If they can do oil (the most important commodity, IMO) they can probably manipulate anything.

Ski #93172: "Let me reduce this to its simplest terms. Tell me ONLY ONE THING. Tell me the DIRECTION"

The price will be held around the cost of production for the high cost primary silver mines since they need to be kept in business. This should mean about where the price is today give or take a bit.

Again, please no rotten eggs, I am simply trying to make the discussion balanced and challenge our collective minds.

CoBra(too)
(01/02/2003; 09:49:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93201)
Manufacturing Index Expands!
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhRivxW.VHJlYXN1Well, as far as I recall - manufacturing is just shy of 17% of overall US GDP - down from 36% only 10 years ago. That's probably why, the consumer is playing a major part in growth projections of a predominantly service oriented economy.

Ha, in the case of do it all and manufacture it all GE - buy your fridge and nuclear power plant with it - the production base is barely 6%, as I'm made to understand, today - the rest being financial and some other services - no-one has asked for. And what's more no-one will be asking for it in the future. Jack Welch, really built the future of GE according to a myopic outlook. An outlook, which has seemingly befallen most of the western world's top level management.

OK, if the SM rallies on manufacturing - we'd best re-install some of that basically true, though totally neglected sector back home - and quit exporting it to the Chinese and other industrious peoples.

... Neat to beat the drums on innocent - better ir-relevant numbers ... buy gold on the dips! - as the next stage in this bull market is in the making ... cb2


sector
(01/02/2003; 09:56:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93202)
Yen down, $USD up
Looks like the BOJ is propping up the dollar......and lowering the yen.

It won't last.
++++++++++++++++++++

More on silver.

The central banks have sold 16,000 tonnes of gold in order to suppress its price in the last 8 years.

Any guesses how many tonnes it took to simultaneously keep silver down? What ever that tonnage was it must be added to the normal silver consumption figures to get the total drainage from Western sources whose desire it is to keep silver down. Hint: It's a big number.
Goldrush
(01/02/2003; 09:56:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93203)
"somewhat difficult to explain"!
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries plunged on Thursday, sending yields sharply higher on news that a widely watched manufacturing index rose unexpectedly in December.

The Institute for Supply Management said the magnitude of the improvement in its manufacturing index -- at 54.7 for December, up from 49.2 in November -- was "somewhat difficult to explain at this point." But a huge jump in the survey's new orders sub-index, to 63.3 in December from 49.9 in November, made the report look all the more upbeat.
___________________
I bet. Lets see how the numbers come out in Jan. LOL
Cavan Man
(01/02/2003; 09:56:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93204)
@CB(too)
Speaking for a $2billion US mfg.....we're busier but, alas, terrible margins and profit outlook worse! Don't be fooled. I in those trenches.
Cytek
(01/02/2003; 10:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93205)
Gold and War
http://trending123.com/stocks/stocks/gulf_war_1991.htm Check out the link for charts of Gold,Dollar, S$P and DOW. Just befor the war the markets sold off while Gold went up. Once the war started Gold dropped $25 an ounce.

The traders seem to think this will happen again. However, our environment is totally different today. I do not believe that Gold we get sold if and when WAR starts. This time is very different and there are alot of uncertainties. Not to mention that Gold is at a historically low valuation. Adjusted for "money-creation" inflation of the U.S. dollar, gold is very cheap. If the U.S. gold reserve still exists, it would only provide about an ounce of gold to back every $32,567 dollars that have been printed or exist as electronic demand deposits in bank accounts, (M3). 8.5 Trillion dollars in M3 / 261 million oz. = $32,567/oz. Didn't ANOTHER mention gold at 32,000 and ounce one day?

So what does everybody think Gold will do when WAR breaks out?

Cytek
slingshot
(01/02/2003; 10:11:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93206)
DOW
DJIA 212.00 Volume 530,382,000 shares.At this time of day is this volume weak to support rally? Should the volume be closer to 1,000,000,000 shares traded?
Slingshot-----------<>
ax
(01/02/2003; 10:55:24 MDT - Msg ID: 93207)
@Aristotle: How the U.S. Treasury can Acquire Gold?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/phillips010103.html
@Aristotle: How the U.S. Treasury can Acquire Gold?

Ref: ax (01/01/03; 12:22:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 93125)

ax (01/01/03; 13:57:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 93129)

Aristotle (01/01/03; 15:34:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 93131)



Artistotle - Thank you for your comments and question. I appreciate
any dialogue on the subject.

I also refer you to the essay of Julian Phillips on the subject

of gold and the central banks which I read last night. It has a

very important analysis of how Alan Greenspan may now be viewing

gold in the financial system, and many other valid points as well

as crucial statistics on central bank reserves. I recommend this

reading very highly.

Yours is a legitimate question - how the U.S. Treasury can Acquire

Gold

First of all, 8k tons is the desired figure - as a start, the amount can

be substantially less. It can be acquired in increments as small as

one ton. There are many sources for such supplies:


1. the Domestic Mines - those mines which are physically located

within the United States, which employ labor within the United

States

2. The supplies of Central Banks that have indicated their willingness

to sell. Certainly this includes Switzerland which is selling now.

This might include Germany, depending how you interpret the

remarks of their officials. When I first started recommending

purchases of gold by the U.S. Treasury in early 1999, it would have

definitely included England.


3. The physical and future gold market - London, New York, Asia

4. Gold bullion dealers within the United States - large and small,

who now offer gold bullion to the general public. They can just

as easily, and gladly so I imagine, sell to the U.S. Treasury, just

as Lockheed -Martin sells fighter jets to the U.S. Dept of Defense




For the reasons discussed in the Jan 1 2003 posts and earlier posts

the U.S. Treasury needs more gold backing for its currency. This

can be done incrementally - in one ton segments. Naturally the price

might adjust upwards; however, it will be a bargain in that so much

more issued currency and debt can now have a much more solid

backing - the solid backing of physical gold. This will allow the USD

to maintain its role as the world's reference and reserve currency -

stable and secure.

Sincerely,

AX

(the entire contents of the above three referenced message is
reproduced below)


ax (01/01/03; 13:57:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 93129)

The New World Financial System with Gold at its Center

The New World Financial System with Gold at its Center

Trends can be reversed. There is no reason why the USD must

relinquish

its role as the world's reference and reserve currency.

This role will

not be relinquished if the U.S. Treasury recognizes the

supreme value

of gold in world finance.

1. The United States must double its Treasury tonnage of Gold

Reserves from 8k ton to 16 k ton

2. Step 1 accomplishes mainly the purchase of TIME.

3. The TIME to (while giving the USD stability and

credibility by

being backed by instead of approximately 90 billion

USDs

of gold at current prices, 180 billion of same) :

a. maintain very low interest rates and increased

money supply

b. use the increased money supply with low lending

rates to

fund increased research and venture capitalism

within the United States

that will:

a. gradually reestablish a manufacturing

economy of not

only high tech goods and system,

but also low tech

goods to use

a. domestically

b. for export

Basically, this is what China is doing.

What applies to the United States also applies to Europe.

Europe is ahead of the U.S. in this regard in

that its gold

reserves ( in proportion to the size of its economy and

overall debt)

is higher. Also Europe is diversified and more self

sufficient in terms

of production of high and low tech goods, both for domestic

use and

for export.

Oil and natural gas , their temporary shortgages and price

swings,

just as the threat of war in the middle east and North


Korea, play a role

in how gold relates in price to the USD. But this is not

the long range

relationship. All the various factors that affect the price

of these energy

commodities as well as the world political situation must be

analyzed

carefully, but they should not obscure this future stronger
relationship that gold will have as it is used within a new

world economic system.

AX

ax (01/01/03; 12:22:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 93125)

THE ECONOMY AS 2003 BEGINS

( quotes from a reuters story and my comments below)

ax: The United States and world economy will not begin

any significant recovery based on the outcome

of any Middle Eastern or North Korean issue.

Nor will the the price of gold be permanently

affected by such outcomes. The economy and gold

will be affected in a significant way only by the

reincorporation of gold into the U.S. and world

financial systems. This has already been hinted

at by Alan Greenspan, talked about by some of us

on this forum, and predicted by some essay writers

on other forums. The year 2003 shall see a major

change in the relationship of gold to economic

life.

Aristotle (01/01/03; 15:34:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 93131)

ax, I'm sorry to be such a pain in your side about this

I still think your proposed Gold-buying scheme for the Treasury is a

muddle. Do you *really* think there are another 8,000 tonnes out there

in the marketplace so easily had in exchange for the Treasury's

dollars??? While facing that puzzle, through what mechanics do you

then

envision that the Treasury may come up with the vast amount of dollars

as necessary to compete for (purchase) this 8,000 tonnes of Gold in

the

present marketplace?

To make a long story short, I can see how your scheme would rocket

the

price of Gold, but I can't see how it could do anything beneficial for

the fate of the dollar. It's one thing to just *say* such and such and

end result may be done or built, but it's quite another thing to

appreciate the mechanics involved, recognizing that the blueprint can't

possible be drawn and implemented.

Can you offer up anything more to address the nuts and bolts of this

Treasury Department scheme of yours?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle


Cometose
(01/02/2003; 11:13:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93208)
gold /silver @ Cyberbat , Karl H, Cobra2;- manufacturing , Cytek

Dollars up , who's buying ? why? I repeat the REFRAIN of Paul Simon 'SLIP SLIDIN' AWAY' !!!
Japan against the world is not getting much resistance....today...

Cyberbat:

I can't give an unbiased opinion ....I'm too influenced by the information that I have recieved mostly around this forum and in the data that seems to be reconfirming that
supply and demand for gold is being affected by the scales falling on extra weight on the demand side....
GOld is not rising be cause things are good in the global economy....It has very little to do with our little closed off world over here in the western hemisphere...It has to do with culture and perception in the rest of the world...specifically in the far east , middle east and in the banking mentality of Conservatives in EUROPE>....THEY are all saying "SHOW ME YOUR GOLD TO BACK YOUR CURRENCY THAT YOUR PRINTING TO BEAT HELL....." You may want to paraphrase this as SHOW ME THE MONEY.... not to be confused with your currency.....$$$'s

There may be a war premium .....but that has little to do with the dollar slide in our future and it's impact on gold prices.

Karl H: I think that it may be that in the not to distant future SIVER IS MONEY again will be proven globally I heard that Warren Buffett leased forward some of his silver . Perhaps he refused to re new those leases.
And George Soros has also interest in 20% of Apex . Maybe he also failed to renew his forward leases...Oh and there is a rumor that the CHinese have also some Silver interests.
Maybe they are buying now....
A little birdie said this morning that SILVER IS going to SCREAM in the next couple of weeks. See Mahendra / Kitco.

Cobra : Manufacturing went up and what did they manufacture and who is going to buy it ....JETS, Rocket SHips, guns and ammo , Tanks , Destroyer's ,U S GOv't ?
War won't fix what is ailing us ......

Cytek: Bush was echoing the German Chancelor's words earlier in the week about how another Terrorist Strike would cripple the US Economy....The German Cbancellor said that war with Iraq would hurt our economy...George said a retaliatory strike by terrorist is going to break our economy.....THEY KNOW the terrorists are already set up for a RETALIATORY STRIKE. What would you do ? THere's likely going to be no war ...based on what I am hearing now.
It may be that President Bush in his statements is making sure that the American Public knows that war is likely to bring Retaliation and that that is going to cripple the economy ......Now we'll get a pole and see how the American people respond....or we may get a war and an Executive order that assigns GEORGE another term in office during these times that will become marked by a National Emergency , and ensuing extreme measures.

NONE of that has much to do with what is going on with the price of GOLD....Arab world wants to trade Euros for oil,
the times they are a changin.....megatrends are in the making. Got your parachute? and compass?? Stay tuned!!!

THe paper game may go on ....KEEP YOUR EYE ON SPOT.. SPOT Rises or falls in relation to SUPPLY AND DEMAND ...if the futures markets fail to keep up with SPOT or we get into backwardation on prices in the futures markets more often with large spreads......you'll know that the problem is getting worse and to consider investing some more of your gains in physical..

Mr Gresham
(01/02/2003; 11:34:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93209)
test
getting my password saved in on a new system -- what a week == whew! (tellyabouditsomeday)
Mr Gresham
(01/02/2003; 11:38:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93210)
Whitewater ahead
Oh, and Happy New Year to all!

Looks like current is picking up on the river; don't know if I need to stop paddling my canoe, and just focus on steering and looking out for rocks and waterfalls.

(Hey, at least I'm going WITH the current, instead of those others still trying to paddle upstream.)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/02/2003; 11:57:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93211)
Looking beyond one day's trade: Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors
PRIMARY TRENDS

Just as the primary trend in gold is up as shown by our nearby
graph, the primary trend in stocks is down. If you diversify your
portfolio with gold, you not only gain by being in gold, you gain what
you would have lost in the stock market. Richard Russell, the
well-regarded long-time investment analyst who has correctly and
consistently forecasted the direction of both markets, says the stock
market and gold will cross in the 2000 to 3000 area
. Think about that
for a moment. What will that mean to your portfolio if not properly
diversified with gold? What will it mean if it is?

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

Old Yeller
(01/02/2003; 12:00:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93212)
sector'silver

I'm a gold guy'so silver is more or less a hood ornament
to me,but,I follow ABX's dastardly deeds with great
interest.ABX appears to be overly concerned with protecting
their silver margins(nyuk,nyuk),considering what a small %
of revenues they represent.

What do feel motivates them to sell silver forward in
such great quantities?

Especially at such seemingly inopportune times,for
instance,early last year.
Renny
(01/02/2003; 12:08:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93213)
reply to Tacitus
Tacitus,

Thanks for the comeback. I think, going by today's prices, PM's are about 58% as much as my liquid assets. This may be high for some but as I said it's all free and clear to do with as I will. It's nice to know I've been on the right track. The folks here have been a wealth of information. Truly the best forum around for helping and educating we everyday people out here.
luckypierre
(01/02/2003; 12:26:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93214)
@BB (#93174) - Tax cuts and polls
It's really not so surprising, when you consider that the lower 50% of American income earners carry less than 20% of the income tax burden, and the share hardly goes up for the next 20 or so percent. It's in their self interest to keep the present tax structure intact, since a great many of them get transfer payments through the earned income credit, and a cut in gov't services would affect them the most. If you weighted the poll towards those who actually contribute to governement coffers, I'll bet the sentiment would swing greatly towards cuts.
TownCrier
(01/02/2003; 12:46:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93215)
HEADLINE: Bush to announce economic stimulus package
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/1722401CRAWFORD -- President Bush said today he will unveil an economic stimulus package next week...

"I'm concerned about all people," Bush told reporters during a tour of his Texas ranch. "I understand the politics of economic stimulus -- some people want to turn it into class warfare."

The president gave no hint of what the new economic stimulus plan will contain, and aides have said in recent days that the president had not yet approved any plan.

-------(see url for article)------

Government stimulus...

"Deflation" will be fought to the last tree: "We shall have the hyperinflation."

R.
Cavan Man
(01/02/2003; 12:54:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93216)
Towne Crier
Within the last year (as in not too long ago), the administration was cautioned by the FED with regards to fiscal stimulus side of the equation.

Yes, it is all playing out according to script.
Black Blade
(01/02/2003; 13:01:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93217)
Car chiefs do not see recovery until 2005
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1039524086600&p=1012571727108
Snippit:

The global automotive industry is not expected to return to the record levels of profitability seen three years ago until at least 2005, according to a survey to be released on Thursday by KPMG, the auditing and consulting group. It identifies recession and consumer hunger for financing incentives as the main factors eroding carmakers' ability to generate substantial earnings. Many of the world's top 100 automotive executives, questioned for the survey, now see a recovery coming two years later than hoped. In 2001, most thought it would come this year.

Black Blade: Just a sign of the times. As the global economy worsens sales are sure to sink � "like a rock".

Cavan Man
(01/02/2003; 13:08:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93218)
To Forum
All this talk about fiscal and monetary stimulus reminds me of the gold trail and has its' consequences. What should be noted is the fact that we are in the process of adding new meaning to the terms "fiscal and monetary stimulus".

I'll never forget meeting a member of the forum in SLC; he is a very smart, successful and nice man. His admonition about two years ago was to "raise your antennae" as the monetary stimulus would likely provide opportunities in the equities markets and beyond. "Stay positive" said he. Well, I've never been less positive (since then or ever) while hopefully seeing the world as it is; maintaining a contrary outlook (not disposition). "At the end of the day",....my absolute gains are as much needed as fantastic; achieving same in jrs. and physical (there's leverage in numbers).

See the world through "legal tender" at this stage. Your foresight will be rewarded.
Black Blade
(01/02/2003; 13:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93219)
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose to 403,000 Last Week
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhREJBPtVS5TLiBJ
Snippit:

Washington, Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for state unemployment benefits rose more than expected during the Christmas holiday week, reflecting a slowdown in the economic recovery. States received 403,000 initial jobless claims last week, up from a revised 390,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said. Economists had forecast that claims would rise to 380,000. Companies have cut jobs as businesses control spending, consumer confidence hangs near a nine-year low, and factories become more efficient. The four-week moving average, which smoothes weekly volatility, rose to 418,750, the highest in three months, from 407,500. It was the third straight reading above the 400,000 mark that economists consider a weak labor market. ``You have very little new job creation, which means about the same number of people are finding jobs as losing jobs,'' said Henry Willmore, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. Today's report showed the number of people continuing to collect state jobless benefits fell to 3.418 million in the week ended Dec. 21. It was the second straight drop and compares with a 19-year high of 3.83 million in the week that ended May 3. Part of the drop may have come as some recipients exhausted their 26 weeks of benefits without finding new work. The share of U.S. consumers rating jobs as hard to get jumped in December to 29.8 percent, the highest since May 1994, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The percentage calling jobs plentiful fell to 12.4 percent, the lowest since February 1994.

Black Blade: Considering that unemployment offices were closed for Christmas this is very surprising. Also, a huge number of workers exhausted their extended benefits and many have yet to find work and those that did were more likely to have found lower paying jobs. It looks grim out there people. This is far from being a healthy economy.

ski
(01/02/2003; 13:12:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93220)
Carl H ... silver scenario


Carl H #93200 ..... In so many words, "But if TPTB did this and this and this and then they did this on top of that, they could hold the price of silver down at will"

Unfortunately, these kinds of discussions do not lend themselves to the web. I live in the middle of nowhere and have wished to find someone nearby to challange my thinking.

On to your basic question. I work in an industry where I need to understand BASIC HUMAN NATURE. In theory, given sufficient effort and resources, anything can be accomplished. We put a man on the moon to pick up a few rock souvenirs. However, the scenario that you have spun to control the price of silver has far, far too many moving parts to succeed and is illogical to the max. Would you buy the stock of any company that announced such an undertaking? It's worse than a dot com. Then suppose that somehow you got this company up and running (controling the price of silver) and ONE BIG PLAYER comes out of some corner of the Mid East and just wants to own a billion dollars worth of silver because he likes the color. Boom! Your done! The whole giant organization that you have created comes apart in one day.

Let's discuss REAL POSSIBILITIES, not WHAT IF scenario's..

................

Renny ..... The late Jim McKeever suggested that in a bull market for PM's, you disignate TWO SEPERATE PILES. One is investment PM's that you expect to sell at a profit. The other pile is insurance PM's that you hold forever. Never mix the piles. This makes the most sense to me!


sector
(01/02/2003; 13:23:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93221)
@ Old Yeller JPM and Selling Silver
I, too am a Gold Guy with silver mostly in the lining......of clouds.

Silver is tough to gauge.

This, because the craven, slinking slugs from JPM have more places to hide in their silver scam. Their derivatives can't be split from Platinum and palladium for example...they are listed as "Other precious metals" by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Why is JPM selling silver? It's part of the overall game to keep all competitors of the dollar from rising as the dollar sinks [Today being an exception as the Japanese buy the dollar and sell the yen]. All it has taken to keep the silver game under control is to sell the Defense Silver Stockpile. A no-brainer for President Clinton.

There is a very large inflation plan playing out in currencies [Including the Euro] and their relationship to the precious metals. The G-10 is trying to get away from selling any more of their precious metals as a hidden policy...they have run out of metal to sell so we await the next phase of Greenspan's Great Adventure.

In all your thinking, think about the G-10 forever losing 16,000 tonnes of their gold. They are bleeding gold and absolutely must bring it under control...with a tourniquet as the best solution.

The "New" currency bills will play a part in the US and Japanese inflation game.

A defacto devaluation is in the wind. The "Shorts" will never really have to cover because a "Fix" at the COMEX is most likely "In". Those that bought precious metals ahead of the deval will win big becaue the precious metals are a world market.
+++++++++++++++++++

BTW don't you just love it when the greasy New York bullion bank shorts start sending a posse of new "names" to the various forum boards to speak about the massive mountain of silver just waiting to be sold at $3 buck an ounce. It's a good sign that the shorts are in a wee bit of trouble these days.
Black Blade
(01/02/2003; 13:59:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93222)
Arctic blast to hit U.S. in second week of January
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030102/energy_weather_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Jan 2 (Reuters) - A big blast of Arctic air is likely to hit the United States in the second week of January, meteorologists at Salomon Smith Barney forecast on Thursday. The Arctic cold's arrival will follow normal temperature levels during the next five or six days, said meteorologists Jon Davis and Mark Russo. "The temperature trends during the second week of January are going to change dramatically as major league Arctic air plunges into the country," they wrote in their forecast. It will be the most significant intrusion of Arctic air into the lower 48 states so far this winter, and would be much stronger than anything that moved into the U.S. all of last winter, they added. The only area that will not be significantly affected by the Arctic blast will be the West Coast, the meterologists said.

Black Blade: If this is true we shall see some serious draws on the oil and NatGas inventories. Get some extra blankets just in case. Hmmm�

Black Blade
(01/02/2003; 14:14:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93223)
U.S. gas stocks seen down 120-125 bcf in weekly EIAs
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030102/energy_natgas_eia_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Jan 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas storage levels are expected to fall by 120 to 125 billion cubic feet (bcf) when weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) data are released early Friday, industry sources said this week. A Reuters survey of 17 industry players showed withdrawal estimates ranged from 68 bcf to 150 bcf for the week ended Dec. 27. On average over the last five years, stocks have fallen 156 bcf in this report. This week's EIA storage report will be delayed one day until Friday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time due to the New Year's holiday. Over the last 9 years, the average low point for U.S. gas stocks at the end of the heating season was 1.09 tcf. Weekly declines of 110 bcf are needed in the remaining 14 weeks of the withdrawal season for inventories to drop to about 1.0 tcf by March 28. The five-year average weekly draw for that 14-week period is 106 bcf.

Black Blade: It looks like "touch and go" right now, but if we get that Artic Blast next week all bets are off. Also, production is falling off sharply and no new plans for ramping up drilling programs in the works. Meanwhile we await tomorrow's data. Should get "Interesting".

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/02/2003; 14:19:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93224)
The Fruit of Your Labor: another day, another dollar?
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html"

Swiss gold francs
Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

makcumka
(01/02/2003; 14:26:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93225)
@ sector
You and some other posters mentioned "New" currency bills. What are they and how real is the possibility of yet another exchange of the US paper money? And wouldn't it be a prime opportunity to deflate the outstanding mass of paper dollars in the world? The exchange could be set up to take place only during a certain time frame an by "certified" banks, who just may not have enough on-hand cash to perform such an excange? Any thoughts or info on the subject will be appreciated

Aristotle
(01/02/2003; 14:47:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93226)
ax, OK, so you're unphased by the "Gold availability" side of the equation.
I'll leave that part alone, since we'd just be going in circles. Let's move to the other equally important part of my question, which you've yet to address.

How will the Treasury get its money to facilitate the Gold purchase while not backfiring?

There's a little phrase that still haunts the world that I think you may have forgotten about.

"Deficits without tears."

There is no way the international community will tolerate Gold purchases by the U.S. government -- not at least through additional deficit spending. If indeed the government seeks to add more to its Gold reserves, the only way it will get it is through a violation of every freedom-loving principle that originally made this nation great. But then, it's been done before. Is this what you advocate?

What else would you have the Government do in your stead?

Gold. Get **YOU** some. Leave the Govt out of it. --- Ari
CoBra(too)
(01/02/2003; 14:59:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93227)
Stimulation - The Name of the Game!
Why didn't I think about that before? I could have ended up as a runner up to the Nobel Prize. Demand - or Supply Side doesn't really make much of a difference. What-ever side - stimulate the economy and you'll be the hero...

Wow. the econ news sound just great. Manu up - signs of strenght; JPM recoups a major part of Enron losses - shareholders don't. Dow, Duck and SnP took off like the fire works of New Year's Eve.

Only Tsy's took a beating. Bush to cut taxes and plans to stimulate economy by creating jobs. Sounds great, though every other citizen is asked to participate in Homeland Security anyway - need a job - turn to your friendly government and become a master spy - on your neighbor.

All these new measures to kickstart the economy, which stubbornly remained in the doldrums for the 3rd. year will need new financing. The new colored $-Bills, expected to be introduced sometime this year may just do the trick.
The old Greenback seems to have done its dues. What-ever else could you expect. After all it shed some 95% of its vigor over the past century. Time to replace it by something more hip - and maybe we could simultaneously scrap and forgive all accounts past - only some 34 Trillion Dollars of debt, not counting any derivatives, of course as they have been bets only. Bets on notional value...and who the hell knows what that means, anyway!

Colored pieces of paper - probably all shades of red, since it'd be fitting for new IOU's - will bring about some kind of new deal. And everybody will be happy again. The real producers of this world will go on exporting the products of their labor for a re-created monopoly game. May the playing field, or is it game board, still be the old one the chips are different; Colored!

The difference will be enormous. The deficits will be colored from here on. Add some color to any lady and she may improve her looks - will a rose colored trade deficit approaching half a Trillion, even in colored Dollars improve its effects?

Well, who knows? ... And probably I won't really care, as I won't wait for the advent of colored Dollars, as I already exchanged most into shining sun-colored ounces of gold and intend to keep doing just that as more come available at the still Whole-SALE prices for GOLD! - Do You? cb2

PS: My old Austrian conscience had me confronted with an annoying thought ... or was it in a dream? Anyway, Dr. Kurt Richeb�cher just materialized in my daydream, spoiling it with the reality that my economic intelligence is really as unfounded as most of todays Keynesian dreamers ... pop goes the weasel!
Aristotle
(01/02/2003; 15:04:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93228)
makcumka -- new currency
The plans are already well underway to roll out pretty and newly colorful currency notes.

Before you get too worked up or concerned over the (potentially sinister?) details of currency exchange, pause long enough to first consider the nature of the vast majority of our nation's money -- by and large a digital entry on an account. That is, there's nothing to it. Nothing to exchange. Compared to this cyber ocean of money, the stuff in your wallet is just a frothy foam upon the waves.

In other words, to worry about the mechanics of the representational paper switchover is perhaps a little too narrow -- and too late -- if push comes to shove and fell monetary deeds are afoot.

Does this change your view?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
R Powell
(01/02/2003; 15:26:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93229)
Carl H // Devil's Advocate
There can certainly be nothing learned without questioning both new information and reassessing that which we believe. As time passes, events occur which can verify or prove previous assumptions. The game is ever afoot! I welcome your devil's advocate stance and have often ended my posts with the words "Any thoughts?" I've played the same against the likes of Butler and Morgan.

Concerning the powers-that-be, my own opinion is that they do exist to the extent that broad economic policy goals are set and actions are taken to achieve these. The strong dollar policy was probably one such goal with the detrimental side effect of surpressing the POG. Once the connection was asserted, POG was probably closely monitored. I don't think actions or policies were ever drawn up to specifically contain the POS. It may have happened as a side effect in so much as there is some monetary connection between gold and silver. As for the PTB being better informed than we are, I'll say again that either there is something wrong with our fundamental analysis or we constitute a small number- too small to influence a purely technically trading market that is disregarding the ongoing deficit. I'm uncertain about excess (extraordinary) manipulation in silver. Ahab was only interested in the great white whale, not small fish.

You mentioned the monetary connection between gold and silver as a possible reason to surpress the POS so as to avoid setting off the gold derivatives bomb. Unfortunately, I do not fully subscribe to this theory. I've questioned both the idea that derivatives will cause default or even any great disturbance in the market. I believe $354 was the magic number given for the total derivatives meltdown. Poppycock! I also find the idea of notational value (and the huge dollar numbers involved) given in this arguement very questionable as no one can explain how they are derived.
As an example, I recently BOUGHT the December 2003 silver contract but was afraid a modest downturn in price would trigger a margin call so I also SOLD the March silver to cover any losses. I hold a March 450 silver call (right to buy at 450). The dangerous futures are offsetting (very little risk) and the call can be used to offset the short position if/when POS goes higher. With the short position covered by the call, I hope to fully profit on the Dec. long. The long is covered until I offset (buy back) the March short. Now, my question is, involving two futures and one option here, what is the notational value of this position? How much have I contributed to the potential meltdown? For every long position there is a short, how are these notational value (that supposedly will cause the derivative meltdown) derived?
Given, as you say, "that The Powers That Be are very, very clever, and very ruthless" do you really think they (or any major financial institution) would hold massive derivative positions in gold or anywhere that are not somehow hedged? Hey, if they believe the gold/silver monetary connection still exists, then short gold positions could even be hedged with long silver. There are no limits to the hedging strategies. Also in this regard, I do not agree with Ted Butler's complaint against the Comex for allowing more future positions to exist than there is silver to cover them. I admire Butler's extensive research on silver but he should know that about 98% of all metals positions are settled in cash (account statements). However, the Comex has covered itself with a callable, monthly limit on physical delivery, if needed. In this event, it will be fiat settlement for the rest.
However, his (Butler's) warnings of increased margin requirements should always be keep in mind. As any market becomes more active or otherwise more risky, margins are subject to increases! The casino has the option to change the stakes required to play. As always, this is a 98% fiat paper game only loosely connected to the world of real hold-in-your-hand metal.

Indeed, as you mentioned, silver use is inelastic. If/when silver becomes too pricy for jewelry/tableware, it will be substituted with something else. This is a very tiny portion of silver use and imho, would be much more than compensated by any one of the new developing uses for silver such as the wood presservative use you mentioned. I believe Home Depot has stopped selling (arsenic) treated lumber (as of 1/1/03) and the proposed government ban (if enacted) is scheduled for 2004.

The threat of less silver use from digital photography has not been verified over the years. Photographic silver use was down only 4% from 2000 to 2001, not unusual considering the economy and the travel industry. How many of the worlds' people can afford a small film camera? How many a digital camera and the computer to go with it?

Your words...
"PHYSICAL investment demand could blow this whole thing up in no time."

Yes indeedy, and if it does not, PHYSICAL use will, simply because the world uses more than is produced and recovered. It's been one heck of an ongoing deficit and thus I believe there was one heck of a reserve to work through but the fact remains, the deficit continues and the supply grows precariously low.
Any thoughts?
Rich
Aristotle
(01/02/2003; 15:28:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93230)
The best justification behind colored currency -- ease of use
When hyperinflation takes over (and it will) and the government is, in phases, adding and then subtracting zeros to the growing flow of notes, it's easier to deal with the various classes of currency and their relative value by a color scheme. (The shifting numbers on otherwise all similarly greenish notes would boggle most brains.)

For example...

Series One:
1's; 5's; 20's and 100's would be Green, Blue, Orange and Red, respectively.

Series One -- additional functional issue:
1,000's; 5,000's; 20,000's; 100,000's would be Green, Blue, Orange and Red, respectively.

Series Two -- "New Dollar" issue:
1's; 5's; 20's and 100's would be Green, Blue, Orange and Red, respectively.

Bye bye to the traditionally "Western" thoughts on meaningful monetary savings. Say hello to the rising standard of global common sense -- a personal standard of physical Gold savings! Get a head start.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Aristotle
(01/02/2003; 15:30:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93231)
TC: "Deflation will be fought to the last tree"
Precious reality!

G. G y s. --- Ari
Hipplebeck
(01/02/2003; 15:35:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93232)
That new currency
I suspect we could be watching the blending of paper and electronics.
There is probably a strip that has an individual identity number on it imbedded in every new bill.
This combined with high speed reading machines at the banks and there can be a record of where every bill has been.
Theoretically, in electronic land, the database can record the movement of every dollar.
People trade in old dollars by a certain time to get new ones, and presto, chango, all dollars are electronic just like a debit or credit card.
makcumka
(01/02/2003; 15:37:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93233)
@ Ari
Thank you for the explanation.

The paper money in my wallet is indeed only a trace of the total electronic amount of dollars that is out there in existence. But my concern was of a different nature. A lot of those paper dollars are held by foreign citizens, mostly in underdeveloped countries, in paper form, as a savings instrument (primarily). As more and more greenbacks are printed and released into circulation, the visual effect alone (not taking into consideration the published figure of the paper money in circulation, which has been increasing at a pretty steady rate recently) may alarm these people who are relying on USD for stability. The paper assets can be manupulated, written off, hidden, etc. The cash that is printed out and stashed away can be brought out in a relatively short period of time, if a panic starts and everywhere around the globe the people rush the banks to exchange the dollars. The psycological event will be catastrophic and, I venture to guess, will destroy the US economy way fasted than JPM, Enron and WorldCom combined. So, if the outstanding US cash is manipulated to disappear under strict exchange policies (I mean, we all know that anyone holding more than $5000 USD in cash is a drug dealer or a counterfeiter anyway, right?), the paper dollar exposure could very well be taken care of. So the USD emerges in a new, colorful way, the small people of other countries have lost their savings, but since the savings were illegal in the first place, it is ok, everything in paper assets can be controlled without too much attention, and the US consumer has a stronger USD (since they don't have a cash stash, they don't get hurt) and can get some more credit because the dollar is again strong. Everything is peachy again.

Do you think this is possible, Ari?
Aristotle
(01/02/2003; 15:48:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93234)
Hipplebeck, call me skeptical
You suggested, "Theoretically, in electronic land, the database can record the movement of every dollar."

Think about this for a minute, please. You're talking about tracking every unit in an environment where some of our finest economic minds, Greenspan included, readily admit that it is no easy thing to define our money and money supply!! How you gonna track each unit item (comprising the cyber sea and its foam) of something as nebulous as that???

Easy out.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
makcumka
(01/02/2003; 15:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93235)
@ Ari
The best justification behind colored currency -- ease of useFrom the days of old USSR:

Not only the paper notes varied in color, they also varied in size, the bigger the bill, the bigger the piece of paper. Anyone can distinguish that, thus providing the "user-friendly" version of paper money. FWIW.
Hipplebeck
(01/02/2003; 15:57:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93236)
Ari
I did say theoretically.
Anyway, my point is that at this early stage, everytime a bill passes through any bank, there will be a record of it. In time, there might be a scan that takes place at the cash register of a store that records what that dollar bought.
There will always be cash traded back and forth between people, but there will be a better electronic trail that could be followed.
If things keep up the way they are going we are probably all going to end up barcoded.
Tevye
(01/02/2003; 16:16:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93237)
Fidelity and Vanguard Gold Funds
Last I looked, (a couple months back), Fidelity's Gold fund showed a large increase in cash on hand and cash was a significant percentage of the fund (~33% but I don't remember the actual numbers). So recent purchasers may have thought they bought gold stocks with Fidelity, but they really 'diluted' the fund. I expect Fidelity didn't buy stock because there was not enough available at an 'acceptable' price. If they do buy, it should push the market.
Vanguard, on the other hand closed their fund.

Anyone have more recent info?

Gold. It's (undiluted) Tradition
Tevye
sector
(01/02/2003; 16:23:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93238)
@ makcumka Here is a prelude to the "New" Currencies --Weaker yen may be cure to lead nation to fiscal health
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030103wo12.htmYomiuri Shinbum
Hiroshi Ota

Economists and politicians have been calling for measures to weaken the yen against the U.S. dollar to enhance the competitiveness of exports. Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa has repeatedly indicated that, in light of the purchasing power disparity between Japan and the United States, he would like to see the dollar, now about 120 yen, rising to about 150 yen.

With the administration of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi having been unable to stem the ever-worsening deflation, which may lead to a full-fledged financial crisis, the economy is enveloped in a sense of stalemate.

It is against this background that arguments have emerged in favor of weakening the yen by such means as the purchase of large quantities of foreign bonds by the Bank of Japan.

There are a number of examples in which countries have successfully bailed themselves out of dire economic straits by devaluating their currencies. A good example is the 1985 Plaza Accord, under which Japan, Germany and other countries cooperated to have the dollar quoted sharply lower to help the United States extricate itself from an economic crisis.
++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ahhhh! It's the Japanese devaluating thingy! And all this time we thought they were waging a "War on Deflation". Get ready for the "New" , "Improved" Japanese currency bills. Guaranteed to buy less than ever.

The goal of the "New" currencies [Already announced by Japan and the US] is to require redemptions that the authorities know won't get done for Billions because the old-to-new redemption requires cross-border actions, presentation of illicit booty [Without to requisite income forms and just plain forgetfulness. It is an opportunity to reduce the money stock and make a little headway when the new currency is devalued against gold.

The Fed once offered a new currency that had a timer in each bill. If one didn't "Move their money" after a set interval it "Expired".

The first Quarter of 2003 will see the implementation of the new currencies and the long-suspected devaluation. All under the cover of a shooting war in Iraq.

It is reasonable to imagine that the New currencies will be simultaneously implemented along side the New Fed gold policy...a policy that will guarantee the price of gold will rise AND the Fed will get to benefit from that gold price rise. The Maestro will wave his wand once again...seeming to make currency Lemonade out of fiat paper Lemons.

What a country.
Aristotle
(01/02/2003; 16:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93239)
makc-man
I sorta see where you're coming from, bu let me stress again that the volume of the cyber sea greatly ouweighs the foam. Domestically AND internationally. The amount of overseas forex dealings is HUGE, and its nearly all digital. This is what washes away coastlines, not the foam. Aaaahhhh.... but the butterfly's wings upon the foam may germinate the storm, yes?

I can't say yea or nay to that bit, but let me toss out this other for perspective to stand behind my earlier comment to you regarding the focus on the paper aspect being perhaps too little, too late during crunch time. One year ago in Argentina many well-to-do citizens held some foam, yes, but they had a great deal more of the cyber sea of U.S. dollars held in Argentine bank accounts -- as a supplement to their peso accounts. With no change, none at all, to our U.S. notes to "complicate" matters, these Argentine citizens none the less found themselves on the outside looking in. The Argentine govt effectively seized all the Dollar brand portions of the cyber sea that fell within its jurisdiction.

Granted, this was not a result of our U.S. Government pulling a fast on on everbody else through implementation of foreign exchange controls, but it does show you perhaps from where the force is likely always to be most compelling, erosive, and damaging -- the sea, not the foam or (the color of) the butterflies' wings upon it.

That's about all I can say. Sorry if it falls short of your mark.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Cavan Man
(01/02/2003; 16:54:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93240)
sector and all......
There's a red herring in your catch; it's called the EURO. As gold rises the EURO balance sheet (BALANCE SHEET--comprendez-vous) gets STRONGER. Conversely, the dollar weakens (absent the "dark arts"). How do you account for the EURO monetary "pair of dimes"? Boning up on Ben Hogan in the "stovepipe league".....CM
Cavan Man
(01/02/2003; 17:01:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93241)
They are saying....
"stocks jump on manufacturing surge"I am here to tell all of you as I am in the most BASIC of mfg. industries.....BUSINESS IS LOUSY. WE MAY BE A LITTLE BUSY BUT WE ARE MAKING VERY LITTLE MONEY. Profits are terrible! "Fixed cost review" is the order of the day. BTW, the company I work for was the most profitable in its' industry peer group.
davefinger
(01/02/2003; 17:03:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93242)
Teyve Re: Fidelity
I'm fairly sure I read somewhere that Fidelity isn't taking new business in their gold fund. This was about three months ago IIRC. My company just switched to Fidelity for our 401k, and the rep mentioned that they have some really obscene amount of 401k money that they manage, on the order of hundreds of billions. Of course the gold fund isn't on our 'list'. Makes sense though. Even a small percentage of the mass of money under their control moving into gold would seriously jeopardize the game.

silvercollector
(01/02/2003; 17:12:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93243)
Nice, nice finish
Goldcorp, Agnico and Meridian (proxies for physical) finished ultra-strong in the last 15/20 minutes.

A couple juniors finished well, some not so well.

We approach the time where we "separate the men from the rabbitts"!!

silvercollector
(01/02/2003; 17:23:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93244)
Cavan Man
Your post is bang on.

There was one of those monster mall complexes built down the road from me 3 years ago. I tell the kids it would be a 'great place to test a very small warhead'. Given today's enviroment that's not funny but I hope you catch my drift.

I watch it carefully for traffic and call it "the proxy for 'consumer spending'...". During the Christmas rush the traffic was luke warm, no where near the '98/'99/'00 freak show. Traffic has been linearly down since mid-2001. Anyways, the swarm tonight and since Boxing day has been unbelievable. Obvious to me that Christmas was postponed and this spells trouble for profits for the retailers.

Watch for Q402 revenues to be "okay" and Q103 profits to be "ugly".

Hope that re-inforces your post.

May your 2003 be golden.
Cavan Man
(01/02/2003; 17:28:22 MDT - Msg ID: 93245)
The Islamic Dinar
Malaysia was a trial balloon.....along comes the WAT to the Tigris and Euphrates neighborhood. Next up we have an Islamic Dinar movement gathering steam. IMHO, the ID will be the monetary no man's land where the currency war for POO will be fought. How many Dinars can the Euro buy? We shall soon see. (God Bless America)
R Powell
(01/02/2003; 17:29:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93246)
Sinclair VS Elliot Wavers
Jim Sinclair has challenged the prediction of the Elliot Wave followers. He has stated that he is confident the POG will rise above $400 before it sinks to the $200 level that the wave believers (typlified by Prechter) are still predicting. How confident?

He has invited anyone who wants to bet ($1,000) on which price is reached first. He says he's willing to take up to 1,000 bets or up to $100,000 total.
Perhaps this posturing or gambling isn't important news but I found it both amusing and entertaining.

So, if someone says... "Hey, Jim, put your money where your mouth is.." he can reply, "I already did!"

He also stated that he believes silver needs to rise above $4.85 and he has positioned buy orders there. Does anyone know how large an audience he commands? I wonder how much a man of his position buys when he decides to do so and how many of his subscription readers will follow? It's unusual for an analyst to get this specific in the general press. Usually, only paid subscribers get this information. This may be interesting.
Rich
R Powell
(01/02/2003; 17:33:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93247)
Math
Regarding Sinclair's offer and 1,000 bets of $1,000 totaling $100,000, I obviously have something wrong here. How about 100 bets of $1,000. Anyway, if you care to bet he says to contact him and he will forward to you the contract for the wager.
silvercollector
(01/02/2003; 17:41:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93248)
Jobless claims
Saw a post today where jobless claims were up after 2 weeks of turning down.

I anticipate jobless claims to turn up, how many managers who didn't have the heart to lay someone off just before Christmas now face the fact that they have to now.
Christian
(01/02/2003; 17:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93249)
New Currency Goal
The goal is to bring the underground economy into the above ground economy. Much of our economy from farm laborers, household help, factories, farmers, drug dealers, prostitution are forced into a barter transactions that exchanges goods for goods and off the books. Corn grower exchanging his corn for live beef, mexican farm laborers being paid with food, beer, housing, and a little cash, household help getting paid with room and board, factories paying labor with goods. Drug dealers will take just about anything that has value and a lot of prostitution is done for a roof over the head. Barter Exchanges are listed in every major city if you know where to look. The whole idea of a currency exchange is to get rid of the sitting cash that is not doing nothing and to bring the cash only deals out of the underground woodworks. A lot of households on food stamps, or medical aid of some kind are always looking for none reportable income. Many farmers milking 40 cows have no way of obtaining health insurance and no way to feed their families. They qualify for food stamps and medical aid as long as they can proof that the milk check does not cover the cost of producing that milk. Many dairy farmers will trade 2 or 3 cull cows for a springing heifer off the books, or trade a few cull cows for field work because the farmer can't afford to fix his tractor. The problem with real estate inflation is that the operator who has it paid has a windfall and the operator who has to borrow the money does so knowing he will be a slave for the rest of his life. If gold was a currency, real estate inflation can not happen like it can with fiat credit money. Over 40% of WalMart workers qualify for food stamps or medical aid. To increase your chance to stay employed at WalMart is not to accept any of their medical plans, be a part time worker, and never, never clock in over time.
mikal
(01/02/2003; 17:44:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93250)
Re: J. Sinclair
@R Powell- His information is provided as a public service, not to paid subscribers. The financialsense.com site also has other authors essays and of course Jim Puplava's excellent work, some of which IS subscription only.
Re: $4.85 -About a week ago he posted an essay where he changed that Ag resistance to $4.89. Dig around and you'll find it. I'm not posting everything he's ever written.
CoBra(too)
(01/02/2003; 17:45:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93251)
@ CM - Business is Lousy - and always was - someway!
Not only that ...But Shrub has promised to stimulate the economy and also plans to create new jobs.

Sounds like Mannah from heaven - though after being consumers of the last global resort and spending twice as much as all their NATO Allies in "Defense", roughly 400 Billion Dollars - where does it all come from?

... Well, of course, it must be Mannah from heaven.

Otherwise, I'm probably not wise enough to figure that one out. OK, you can loan some dough from medicare and even retirement funds - after all you haven't put in a dime anyway - oh don't tell me in funds, mutual or in another way ... and there may be no-one destitute enough to cry out loud and state foul - for now ... ?

... Well, the answer seems to be - as Bernanke and his co-conspirators see the future - print or the modern equivalent - create new Dollars at an ever accelerating rate. Pauperizing or socializing the fraud seems the way to go. A way all so called Western (ex-) industrialized have a way to go.

Is it fraud, or a way of life, we've been streamlined to accept? Fraud to the folks, who have bled for their meager retirement security and fraud to the generation paying for it - as the administration has already digested it. No, it's only delusion - and if you wanna accept it - it's your own fault! Or is it ... think again...

A real and true cure for the malaise the US Dollar has maneuvred itself into for the last century - or 300 million people vs. the rest of us 6 Billion peasants accepting forfeited paper forever ...

Do I know? - personally yes, as I go Gold! cb2

Goldrush
(01/02/2003; 17:46:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93252)
At a loss to explain numbers
Thursday January 2 6:53 PM EST

The latest forecastU.S. Factory Report Upbeat, Analysts Not Sure
By Victoria Thieberger


NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing stepped out of the doldrums in December, expanding by a lot more than expected, but the improvement was at odds with other soft economic news recently, and didn't change expectations for a gradual recovery in 2003.


The group conducting the influential factory survey, the Institute for Supply Management, was at a loss to describe why the December report was so strong, noting that elements required to produce strong growth did not seem to be in place.


That said, the ISM index came in at 54.7 -- well above the 50.3 analysts expected and above last month's 49.2 -- and showed expansion for the first time in four months. In the survey, 50 marks the threshold between growth and contraction.


Other data were less upbeat. In keeping with the sluggish labor market, unemployment claims rose in the latest week, suggesting any improvement is still months away.


Economists, like ISM officials, were viewing the factory report with a healthy dose of skepticism.


"The striking thing is that strength in the (manufacturing) survey is against the background of an overall pretty disappointing economic environment," said Anthony Karydakis, senior financial economist at Banc One in Chicago.


"So is it really that manufacturing is leading the way in this recovery while we saw consumer spending and just about everything else falter in December? I'm not so sure," he said.


Though the report contributed in part to dramatic gains in stock prices and a sharp sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, Thursday was the first trading day of the year and dealers attributed the moves mainly to New Year portfolio shifts.


Economists say it's too soon to be sure the economy has emerged from the weak patch it's been mired in since late summer.


Consumer confidence remains relatively weak, and concerns surrounding a probable U.S. war with Iraq hardly point to a robust recovery. Confidence has fallen for six months out of seven, holiday retail sales were weak, and orders for long-lasting durable goods have yet to improve.


Figures on Thursday showed unemployment insurance claims rose by a surprisingly sharp 13,000 in the week ended Dec. 28 to 403,000, the latest figures to point to a stagnant job market. The jobless rate for December, due out next week, is expected to remain at an eight-year high of 6.0 percent.


In a concession to the struggling economy, President George W. Bush will unveil a stimulus package on Tuesday, which is expected to total up to $300 billion in tax breaks for businesses and individuals.


STILL STRUGGLING


Manufacturing activity accounts for about a fifth of the economy, but it has outsized importance because a large part of business investment in capital goods is related to factories. Economists have said a recovery in business spending is needed to put the economic expansion on firmer ground.


While manufacturing is expected to recover in the first half of 2003 from a slump late last year, economists believe it will be slow and won't be a big driver of the economy.


"Inventories are extraordinarily lean, so there is the potential for manufacturing to snap back a little bit," said James O'Sullivan, economist at UBS Warburg.


Markets reacted strongly to the upbeat data. After two weeks of gains, U.S. Treasuries prices were savaged and the 10-year bond yield suffered its biggest one-day increase in four years, while stocks rallied. The broad S&P 500 average jumped 3.3 percent to 909.03, helped by optimism about the new year.


And Eurodollar futures, a measure of interest rate expectations, fell sharply, implying the Federal Reserve may start raising interest rates in the second half of this year.


The ISM new orders index, a measure of future production, surged to 63.3 from 49.9 in November -- the largest one-month increase since August 1980.


"I think it's pretty clear the threat of a double-dip (recession) has faded considerably," O'Sullivan said.


Still the ISM cautioned that the fundamentals did not change dramatically in December.


"I don't think it's time to pronounce that manufacturing is ready to make a strong recovery. I don't think the drivers are there to be able to do that," Norbert Ore, director of the ISM survey, told reporters in a conference call.


The improvement in U.S. manufacturing stood in contrast to another disappointing report from factories in the euro zone, released earlier on Thursday. For the past year, the U.S. recovery has outpaced that of Europe, which is being weighed down by weakness in Germany, the region's biggest economy.


Manufacturing in the euro zone shrank for the fourth straight month in December, according to the Reuters Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index, which fell to 48.4 from 49.5.


A more resilient American consumer sustained last year's tentative recovery, with low interest rates fuelling purchases of cars and houses, the bright spots of the economy.


Homeowners, encouraged by historic low rates, made a year-end push to refinance their home loans and gain some financial relief. The Mortgage Bankers Association said refinancings rose by 10.9 percent in the week to Dec. 27.

Sierra Madre
(01/02/2003; 17:57:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93253)
Hmmmm.....hmmm, again......and more hmmmmm....

So the Japanese want to devalue the Yen. That's amusing. How do you devalue something that has no value? This is not just an idle question. It refers to a very real situation.

The present day world currencies are the bastard heirs of banknotes that in a more orderly and honest age, were promises to deliver a certain amount of gold (or silver, in the silver currency countries)

At that time, a currency could be devalued by changing the amount of gold or silver to be delivered upon the notes' redemption.

There was a common standard, a NUMERAIRE, in existence. All paper was representative of a certain amount of gold or silver.

No more. Only the form remains, the substance is absent.

"What a country" says Sector. I say, "What a world!" It is taking on the character of a real-life nightmare. Those smart bankers - greedy, avaricious moral cripples - thought that "Gold is dead. Gold is finished. The Central Banks actually don't WANT any gold." Their economist statists and planners, all intellectual prostitutes, gave them all the reasons. All the reaons were fallacious!

The Japanese are desperately trying to devalue their Yen, so that their industries can churn out more goods, which they will sell to the US consumers, in exchange for more papers, which are instrinsically worthless, and thus pile up more dollar balances of "I owe you nothings" as John Exter used to say. Madness, the world has gone mad.

The disconnect between paper money and gold, which finally came about in August 1971, has taken us into a world where there are no more limits, which is another way of saying, a world disconnected from reality. I think it would be correct to go further and say, "Since we are disconnected from reality, our world is essentially DEAD."

The "economists" and their media and journalist friends are groping in an irrational blackness, for answers, for solutions. There are none!

What we are going to witness in the next ten years, is something that Greek philosophers would appreciate in its awesome splendor: the collapse of a civilization.

Let's all look at this period objectively, rather like astronomers observing the collision of a monster asteroid into Mars. Of course, the problem is, the asteroid is coming our way, not towards Mars.

"See all, nor be afraid!
The best is yet to be,
The last of life, for which
The first was made."

We are able to observe the spectacle of Human Folly on a scale never before seen. Surely a privilege! Enjoy!

Sierra

Cavan Man
(01/02/2003; 18:00:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93254)
@CB(too)
Right church but wrong pew....you mean, "pennies, pennies from heaven."
makcumka
(01/02/2003; 18:01:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93255)
@ sector
Your words about an "expiring" currency reminded me of an old Russian joke:

To prevent anyone from getting rich, the government will issue new currency with a undisclosed percentage of uranium contained in the currency. As soon as one gathers enough money to reach the critical mass, he seizes to exist.

Cavan Man
(01/02/2003; 18:19:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93256)
My friends,
let us be attentive.....December should witness a rise in manufacturing. EVERYBODY SELLING ANYTHING RETAIL OR ENGAGED IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN THEREOF IS BUSY DURING THIS MONTH.
Goldrush
(01/02/2003; 18:22:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93257)
JPM will post a loss not gain 4th qtr
JP Morgan to Take $1.3 Billion in Charges
Thu January 02, 2003 03:10 PM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM.N said on Thursday it would take about $1.3 billion pretax in charges for litigation related to Enron Corp. ENRNQ.PK and the global research settlement announced late last month.

The No. 2 U.S. bank said it would establish a $900 million reserve for costs of various private litigation and regulatory inquiries involving Enron, including $80 million for the research settlement with state and federal authorities.

It said it would also take a pretax charge of $400 million in the fourth quarter as part of its settlement on Thursday of an Enron-related surety bond dispute with insurers.

The charges equate to 43 cents a share and mean the bank will post a loss in the fourth quarter, the bank's chief financial officer, Dina Dublon, told a conference call. J.P. Morgan had been expected to earn about 36 cents in the fourth quarter, according to market data firm Thomson First Call.
Goldrush
(01/02/2003; 18:23:24 MDT - Msg ID: 93258)
Home Depot falls 8% after hours
Home Depot Lowers Earnings Outlook
Thu January 02, 2003 07:49 PM ET
ATLANTA (Reuters) - Home Depot Inc. HD.N , the world's largest home-improvement retailer, on Thursday cut its earnings outlook for fiscal 2002, citing lower-than-expected holiday sales of power tools and hardware, and said it faced a "challenging environment" well into fiscal 2003.

The rare earnings warning from Home Depot, the world's second-largest retailer behind Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT.N , represented another black mark for the retail sector, which is coming off one of its bleakest holiday sales seasons.

Shares of Home Depot fell almost 8 percent in after-hours trade.

makcumka
(01/02/2003; 18:23:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93259)
@ Ari
Thanks again for providing your point of view on the "new" currency. It did not fall short of my mark.
Solomon Weaver
(01/02/2003; 18:44:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93260)
Note the gold related claims at the bottom of this article....brought for the purpose of educating the members of this forum at to the rumors aimed from the gold bug corner at JPM.
Morgan adds up Enron, other costs
Insurers to fork over $600 million in settlement

By Luisa Beltran & Greg Morcroft, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:41 PM ET Jan. 2, 2003







NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- J.P. Morgan made its financial New Year's resolution Thursday, setting aside more than $1 billion to cover its settlement with insurers in an Enron-related suit and beefing up its kitty for future litigation and regulatory expenses.



CBS MARKETWATCH TOP NEWS
Factory data sparks major rally in Dow, Nasdaq
Bush to detail economic plans next week
Rates fall again to lowest level since early '60s
J.P. Morgan Chase settles with insurers, to take charge




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The move will likely lead to a fourth-quarter loss at the nation's second-largest bank, but it is expected to help calm jittery investors and further strengthen the company's ability to maintain its oft-criticized dividend policy and attract more investors.

J.P. Morgan Chase looks likely to post a loss in the fourth quarter after taking a charge to settle Enron litigation and establishing a $900 million reserve to cover future litigation and regulatory expenses, the company said Thursday.

The current Thomson First Call estimate for the quarter is a profit of 36 cents per share, excluding special items.

Charges to eat Q4 earnings

"You shouldn't expect to have positive earnings for the quarter," Chief Financial Officer Dina Dublon told analysts on an afternoon conference call.

Analyst Richard Bove of Hoefer & Arnett said he now expects the bank to report a profit of 30 cents per share before charges for the fourth quarter but a loss of 13 cents after charges.

The powerhouse financial institution said it will take a pretax charge of about $400 million and also revealed plans for the $900 million pretax reserve. On an after-tax basis, these items equal $860 million.

"Excluding these items, fourth-quarter results are seen in the range of consensus," Dublon said.

Bove said operating earnings for the first quarter of 2003 are expected to jump back to 50 cents per share and to hit 65 cents by the fourth quarter of next year.

"People don't care what happened in [2002's] fourth quarter," Bove said. "They care where the company is going in coming months. The expectation is that EPS will be substantially higher."

"This means that J.P. Morgan's dividend is well-protected," he added. Based on Tuesday's closing price, the stock's dividend works out to a yield of 5.75 percent.

Shares of J.P. Morgan Chase, a Dow industrials component, surged 6 percent to close at $25.44 Thursday.

"Technically speaking, JPM has spent the past two years in a steady downtrend defined by lower highs and lower lows. The equity may potentially be on its way to achieving a lower high," options tracker Bernie Schaeffer said in his daily options commentary.

"Options players are quite optimistic on JPM shares despite its hazy technical picture," Schaeffer added.

Further boosting the firm's prospects, Moody's Investors Service reiterated its rating "A1" on J.P. Morgan's credit following the settlement news.

Moody's said the risks related to bonds were already incorporated in its ratings and added that J.P. Morgan continues to generate a "substantial and diversified stream of income" with which to absorb such costs.

Closing a chapter



News of the charge and the reserve came hours after the bank disclosed that it had reached a settlement with a group of 11 insurers in its bid to recover $1 billion from the companies regarding Enron surety bonds.

Terms of the agreement call for the insurers to pay about 60 percent of the amount of surety bonds the insurers wrote.

"The settlement represents us being on the right side of the deal, and represents the risk of going the whole way on the litigation," J.P. Morgan Chase Chief Executive William Harrison said on the conference call.

Travelers Property Casualty (TAPA: news, chart, profile) (TAPB: news, chart, profile) confirmed that it would pay about $139 million under the pact.

Liberty Mutual has signed on to the settlement. The insurer has agreed to pay less than $12 million to resolve litigation with J.P. Morgan, the insurer said in a statement.

In December, J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: news, chart, profile) began battling 11 insurers, including Chubb (CB: news, chart, profile) and St. Paul Cos.' (SPC: news, chart, profile) St. Paul Fire & Marine Insurance Co., in court to recover about $1 billion. The insurers had issued surety bonds that guaranteed commodity deals between Enron and a J.P. Morgan-related entity, Mahonia Ltd. See story.

But once Enron went bankrupt in December 2001, the insurers refused to pay the bonds, claiming the deals were really loans between J.P. Morgan Chase and Enron, not commodity transactions.

Bank executives added that the $900 million reserve included likely costs for lawsuits involving non-Enron-related liabilities, like litigation involving WorldCom and other firms with which the company did business.

"These various cases will be resolved little by little over about four years," J.P. Morgan Chase general counsel William McDavid said on the conference call.

In November, Dublon told CBS.MarketWatch.com that she expected a resolution of the Enron case by late December or early January. If J.P. Morgan Chase lost the case, the bank would likely take a charge to income and not boost reserves, Dublon had said.

More outlook for the fourth quarter

Dublon and the others on Thursday's conference call said that despite the charge and reserve, the company's fourth-quarter performance showed some positive signs, particularly a strengthening in revenues as trading business picked up.

"Revenues are probably quite a bit higher than estimates, but expenses are higher than expected due to severance costs," Dublon told listeners.

She said overall charges will be higher than the $300 million that J.P. Morgan Chase predicted earlier for its investment-banking operations.

Vice Chairman Marc Shapiro told investors and analysts that the firm's credit quality had not changed much since the end of the third quarter.

"Telecom is playing out as anticipated," Shapiro said, referring to another area of troubled loans for the financial industry.

"Merchant energy is the sector most likely to be hurt by any drop in credit quality," he said.

Shapiro also said the company would maintain its 34-cent-per-share quarterly dividend payment -- a policy that's been criticized in the past even as it has been staunchly defended by the bank's management.

In a footnote, the executives said that, despite persistent rumors to the contrary, it has no exposure to the recent run-up in gold prices.

"We don't have any real exposure to gold. I don't know where that rumor keeps coming from, but it's not true," CEO Harrison said.

"We have seen this rumor pop up again and again," added chief counsel McDavid, "and we have asked the SEC to look into it."

Luisa Beltran is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in New York.
Greg Morcroft is New York news editor of CBS.MarketWatch.com.



Cavan Man
(01/02/2003; 18:58:22 MDT - Msg ID: 93261)
POS
THE CEO SAYS JPM HAS NO EXPOSURE TO GOLD???????????

Either there are some really significant problems in the pipeline or, some of our brethren are way off base.

However, I do think it is a documented fact that JPM/Chase is the single largest player in gold derivatives. Perhaps Mr. Harrison was referring to the (metal) gold and not the (paper) gold. Reminds me of the definition of sex in the 90's.
Goldrush
(01/02/2003; 18:59:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93262)
UK Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-2290035,00.htmlDuring his breakfast with Silva, Chavez also brought up the idea of increasing cooperation among Latin American state-owned oil industries and set up a company called Petro-America.

``It would become a sort of Latin American OPEC,'' Chavez said. ``It would start with Venezuela's PDVSA and Brazil's Petrobras,'' and could come to include Ecopetrol from Colombia, PetroEcuador from Ecuador, and PetroTrinidad from Trinidad and Tobago.''
__________
JPM recommends buying gold on dips. Other than that its a
sleazy company. It guided Enron on making phoney accounts.
Cavan Man
(01/02/2003; 19:15:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93263)
JPM
Pretty incredible or not?"We don't have any real exposure to gold. I don't know where that rumor keeps coming from, but it's not true," CEO Harrison said.

mikal
(01/02/2003; 19:16:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93264)
Cavan Man, Solomon Weaver Re:Derivatives "mirage"
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/cook010303.htmlDIRT POOR by James Cook -Excerpts-
.....Barrick would take advantage of a bear market in gold to acquire other properties at distress prices. Nice friendly Banksters were able to offer considerable assistance. Through the alchemy of derivatives, hedging, and forward sales the Banksters were able to offer Barrick quite a deal: no downside risk in the event that gold were to rise.
What's this. No risk? No such beast. Someone was taking the risk. With Big Daddy Bush on the Board, the operations and policies of the Exchange Stabilization Fund could be telegraphed to Barrick. Essentially, Barrick and the Banksters could front run the Treasury. After all, bond traders do it all the time. An honored tradition. Over the years Barrick grew to be the world's premier gold miner, with a hedge fund bolted to the side. A hedge fund with an edge.
As the years went by, a second administration found a use for this edge. Any one remember Clinton's temper tantrums over not being able to control long rates? Well, Larry Summers to the rescue. His understanding of Gibson's paradox set the stage for a manipulation of biblical proportions: By suppressing the price of gold, you can suppress long term interest rates.....
Thus began a new period in economic history. A period where the Exchange Stabilization Fund facilitated the long peg on a bewildering array of gold swaps, gold leases, forward sales and unfathomable derivatives schemes. Spreading beyond Barrick, the entire industry has become caught up is a web of structured finance that could only be created during a financial mania, and can only be unwound during a deflation. The Treasury has recharacterized its gold reserves more than once. Only the naive believe that the type of fraud demonstrated by our corporate elites has not infiltrated the federal monetary system. The insanity began when the historic relationship between stock and bond prices was violated in 1996. Sobriety will return when historic reality returns to this primal relationship.
One by one, the party go-ers are sobering up. Austrian concepts are being considered. Mr. Market has been discounting hedged mining companies. Sir Alan has been emphatic about netting legislation before Congress. The Federal Reserve discussed buying gold mines after 9/11. The Russians have circulated the gold Ruble, the Chinese have liberalized the gold market, and the Islamic Dinar is about to launch. Lawsuits have been filed, first by altruists, now by commercial interests. Dollar devaluation was the consensus at Jackson Hole this year. Keynesian ideas are being dissed by Fed governors. Monetization of debt has become policy. Gold and its shares are breaking out.
And Greenspan, the closet gold bug, appears to be coming out.
Clearly, the Fed has been laying the groundwork to deal with a systemic monetary or currency crises for at least a year. While many do not give them credit, they clearly understand the problem at hand. After all, they have been party to the problem.
So, the Fed has panicked, and adopted essentially the monetarist economic philosophy of Milton Friedman by accepting blame for the last depression. The Keynesians are all a tether, having lost their perceived exclusivity over policy formulation.
The tiny minority of Austrian economists just sit back and smile. Those who follow their advice are currently counting their coin.
.....So what's a simple debt slave to do? My conclusion is that you must become your own central banker, and front run our monetary authorities. Sound complicated? Not really.
Unwind your structured finance position. Buy nothing on margin. Pay off your credit cards and debt.....
So build your gold reserves. Central banks are becoming net buyers of physical gold.....
A pull back in the gold price appears imminent and may offer immediate opportunity. The commercial short position is obscene. I thought that yesterdays spike down in gold price might be the beginning of an aggressive push to get the price down to levels where this position can be covered with less pain. But it is possible that the commercials are trapped. That the short position can't be covered, and that it will ultimately be "netted out" in a mysterious closed door process that leaves the major commercial producers owned by the central bankers, and the treasury's coffers of "deep storage gold" filled to the brim: The confiscation this time will most likely be of the hedged producers and na�ve explorers.....End snippits
January 3, 2003
sector
(01/02/2003; 19:21:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93265)
@CavenMan The Euro is backed by a little gold but...
...how much of that gold has already been sold and/or swapped?The central banks are light ...to the tune of 16,000 tonnes of gold so the Euro's gilded edge is also a tad light. The G-10 would like everybody to think there's a competition between the dollar and the Euro but there really isn't. There is a skillful devaluation vs. gold in the works that involves all the major currencies. Except maybe the Yuan. The Chinese don't seem to be playing by Marquis of Queensbury Rules. No surprise there...then there's their pals the "We ain't got no stinkin Nukes!" North Koreans. The Chinese will do only what is in their best interest. The G-10 will learn a hard 24 carat lesson from that.

All the talk of deflation wars, the new currencies and the Fed's mouthpieces themselves are the clue. It's like the buildup to December 7th 1941. Just about everybody behind the scenes knows it's coming.

Housing and its satellite boutique businesses are OK, but only for now. The day after the deval--housing dies because key interest rates will be automatically adjusted higher. Greenspan will try to mandate a result, like a tethered gas-powered model airplane, he will pull the Fed policy strings to make the little plane go up. What he fails to see is that the strings are slack and all the pulling in the world won't work. He will be forced to watch as a spectator while gold takes command.

Bill Murphy's has been rightly pounding the table that this gold bullish market remains a tightly coiled spring...one just can't predict the hour of it's release therefore one must be all in for the long haul.

Sinclair can trade nimbly because he's the best trader on Earth but the normal mortal would likely get crushed by volatility.
++++++++++++++++++

BTW Hogan's cupped wrist tip is right up there. It's hard to do because it feels so weird but the harder you swing the straighter it goes. Butch Harmon uses it. Love the back right foot too.
mikal
(01/02/2003; 19:28:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93266)
Correction to author name
DIRT POOR is by Rodney Cook, not James Cook.
sector
(01/02/2003; 19:35:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93267)
@CavebMan JPM and their "Non-Exposure" to Gold
Nothing is confirmed until it is officially denied......AND they have contacted the Securities and Exchange Commission about all the [Damaging ] rumors.

My My! Imagine THAT. Chairman Harrison in a hissey fit over the WILD RUMORS of trouble in their $45 Billion gold derivatives short book now that gold is rising. Part of a $23 Trillion derivative book that was built by getting special pricing of 10X lower than their competitors...according to their Annual Report.

Mr H is going to the SEC and give Mr. Donaldson [Formerly Donaldson Lufkin, Jenrette] a piece of his mind! THAT will get RESULTS! "We have never lose a dime in gold".

If one never has to buy out of a short one never loses. Since the Treasury has backed the gold shorts that is probably true but they can't prove it without blowing the whole scam.

Kind of like The "Godfather's" Corleones not being able to "Go to the cops" when competitors horn in on their prostitution racket.

"Buy JPM...SOON to have less than $29 Billion in Enron litigation expenses".
silvercollector
(01/02/2003; 19:38:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93268)
Just received this email
To my investment friends:

Check out this .PPT to understand why stock markets hit highs in 2000 and understand why markets have lost money for 3 years.

Follow the link:

http://prudentbear.com/

and click on "Why the bear market is not over"



Gold Standard
(01/02/2003; 19:42:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93269)
Sector - your #93265

In your recent post, you said:-

"There is a skillful devaluation vs. gold in the works that involves all the major currencies. Except maybe the Yuan. The Chinese don't seem to be playing by Marquis of Queensbury Rules."

As far as I know, the Yuan is pegged to the USD on an 8:1 ratio. This is competitive devaluation at its finest, because no matter how low the USD goes, the price of imports from the PRC doesn't change.

Regards, GS
silvercollector
(01/02/2003; 19:45:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93270)
From the world of bizarre (Banker JPM) to the real world (Edward Scherrer is president of Peoples State Bank, Augusta, WI.)
http://prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=19039-snip-


Edward Scherrer is president of Peoples State Bank, Augusta, WI.

I'm a small town banker and perhaps don't understand all the nuances of the national credit markets. But from where I sit, this economic recovery is extremely fragile, driven by excessive growth in consumer debt and likely to fail.
cyberbat
(01/02/2003; 19:47:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93271)
@Black Blade
Do you think that the PPT can throw an endless supply of dollars to keep gold (a dwindeling commodity) down forever ?
If not , why not. The Euro and gold were down today which is a complete reversal. Treasuries were going crazy. I can't figure out what's going on anymore.
Cyberbat
Goldrush
(01/02/2003; 19:52:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93272)
Dollar still under pressure
Hong Kong, Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar snapped a rally from yesterday and may fall on concern a U.S.-led war with Iraq would make international investors keep their money at home.

The U.S. currency started the day with a gain, after a report yesterday showing a surge in manufacturing sent it to its biggest rally versus the euro since August. It slid back as non-U.S. investors said a possible war is still reason to shun the dollar.

The dollar traded at 119.86 yen at 10:06 a.m. in Hong Kong from 120.08 late yesterday in New York. It hovered at $1.0378 against the euro from $1.0362. The U.S. currency had its biggest gain yesterday versus the euro since Aug. 22. Trading may be less than usual because Japanese financial markets are closed for a holiday.

``The bearish trend for the dollar hasn't changed,'' said Noriyoshi Tsunoda, assistant general manager of the treasury department at Mizuho Corporate Bank in Taipei. ``The geopolitical risk is still there, while the economic outlook hasn't changed much.'' The dollar may fall toward 118 in coming days, he said.
silvercollector
(01/02/2003; 19:54:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93273)
Last post is a ABSOLUTE MUST read...
...if the president has called it quits, well, make your own conclusions.

Gold. Get yourself lots.
silvercollector
(01/02/2003; 19:56:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93274)
This one!!!!
http://prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=19039
ax
(01/02/2003; 20:07:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93275)
COOK UNABRIDGED: THE PART ON FED BUILDING GOLD RESERVES
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/cook010303.htmlCOOK UNABRIDGED: THE PART ON FED BUILDING GOLD RESERVES

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/cook010303.html


It is important to read the part omitted from Rodney Cook's

essay by msg#: 93264:
----------------
...The tiny minority of Austrian economists just sit back and smile. Those
who follow their advice are currently counting their coin.


WHAT IS THE FED TO DO? AT THIS POINT, THEY SHOULD BUILD

THEIR GOLD RESERVES. IF THEY ARE HYPOTHECATED WITH SOME

MYSTERIOUS INSTRUMENT OF STRUCTERED FINANCE, THE POSITIONS

SHOULD BE UNWOUND. IF THE GOLD IS GONE, LAY PLANS FOR

CONFISCATION.

ALL APPEAR TO BE IN THE WORKS.

PERSONAL CENTRAL BANKING


So what's a simple debt slave to do? ...............

---------------------


Comment: Confiscation would not be necessary. The Fed
can buy gold from the following sources.

Also see the Julian Phillips Essay:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/cook010303.html

From ax msg# 93207 ( see excerpts below)

ax (1/2/03; 10:55:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 93207)

How the U.S. Treasury can Acquire Gold?

..I also refer you to the essay of Julian Phillips on the subject

of gold and the central banks which I read last night. It has a

very important analysis of how Alan Greenspan may now be viewing

gold in the financial system, and many other valid points as well

as crucial statistics on central bank reserves. I recommend this

reading very highly.

Yours is a legitimate question - how the U.S. Treasury can Acquire

Gold

First of all, 8k tons is the desired figure - as a start, the amount can

be substantially less. It can be acquired in increments as small as

one ton. There are many sources for such supplies:


1. the Domestic Mines - those mines which are physically located


within the United States, which employ labor within the United

States


2. The supplies of Central Banks that have indicated their willingness

to sell. Certainly this includes Switzerland which is selling now.

This might include Germany, depending how you interpret the

remarks of their officials. When I first started recommending

purchases of gold by the U.S. Treasury in early 1999, it would have

definitely included England.


3. The physical and future gold market - London, New York, Asia


4. Gold bullion dealers within the United States - large and small,

who now offer gold bullion to the general public. They can just

as easily, and gladly so I imagine, sell to the U.S. Treasury, just

as Lockheed -Martin sells fighter jets to the U.S. Dept of Defense

For the reasons discussed in the Jan 1 2003 posts and earlier posts

the U.S. Treasury needs more gold backing for its currency. This

can be done incrementally - in one ton segments. Naturally the price

might adjust upwards; however, it will be a bargain in that so much

more issued currency and debt can now have a much more solid

backing - the solid backing of physical gold. This will allow the USD

to maintain its role as the world's reference and reserve currency -

stable and secure.
Goldrush
(01/02/2003; 20:10:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93276)
JPM not out of the woods yet
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?guid=%7B23864C47-C988-40EC-9611-99A5B16F2B98%7D&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahooProbe sought on Enron-like deals
Senate panel questions structured finance pacts
By Matt Andrejczak, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 6:09 PM ET Jan. 2, 2003

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- A congressional panel on Thursday urged financial regulators to conduct a sweeping review of all U.S. banks and Wall Street firms for complex financial transactions similar to those allegedly used to help Enron pad profits.

The Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations claims J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: news, chart, profile), Citigroup (C: news, chart, profile) and Merrill Lynch (MER: news, chart, profile) designed and profited from structured finance transactions with Enron that used deceptive accounting and tax strategies.

"It is not acceptable for our banks or securities firms to help any public company mislead investors or analysts through deceptive transactions," said Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., outgoing chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.

The subcommittee highlighted the multi-million dollar deals at separate congressional hearings last year. The firms denied the allegations that they knowingly aided Enron's deception.

On Thursday, the panel released its second report describing the role of U.S. financial institutions in Enron's collapse. Read report.

Meantime, J.P. Morgan settled with 11 insurers over an entity it created to do business with Enron. See full story.

The report called on the Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to launch a joint review of banks and securities firms using structured finance deals with U.S. public companies and tighten rules on what is legal.

Rich Spillenkothen, director of the Fed's division of Banking Supervision and Regulation, told the subcommittee in mid-December that the agency is expected to complete its own review of structured finance transactions in a few months.

According to the subcommittee, there is a gap in regulatory oversight because the SEC does not regulate banks and the Fed does not oversee accounting practices policed by the SEC.
__________
We might yet find out more about JPM dealings.
Silvercollector_great article
Goldrush
(01/02/2003; 20:24:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93277)
A CHART OF THE S&P 500 P/E RATIOS OVER 75 YEARS
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/jmiller092402pv.htmlMarket still looks very overvalued by historical standards.
knotakare
(01/02/2003; 20:25:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93278)
Bravo Sierra!
Your comments today and the "Dirt Poor" article on another favorite gold website are surely classics. The comments today that JPM has no position in the paper gold markets (derivatives), is proof positive that we are indeed dealing with a suspension of rational knowing. Of course they did not use these words, but that is what they directly implied.

We now see the entire western world's economic and political systems operating on the greator fool theory, as so we must watch the destroyers perform their craft.

happy new year to all!



sector
(01/02/2003; 20:45:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93279)
@Gold Standard You are Quite Correct Sir...
...regarding the Yuan/Dollar Link......my comments concern the not-so-behind-the-scenes efforts to get the Chinese to break this link and upwardly revalue the Yuan.

We need that to occur in order to raise the price of Chinese goods and the Chinese have so far told the Fed to "Pack Sand".

Thus, the non-cooperation between the Chinese and the US isn't helping matters much for the Fed.

It gets worse. IF the Chinese revalue upwards they can buy even more gold.

IF the Japanese devalue the yen back towards 133 the elders there can crush the gold cartel all by them selves with only 10% of their ready cash. The elders have $620 Billion in fungible deposits [Not real estate] and cash. They can suck every last ounce of gold away from the G-10 in a heart-beat.

So we sit and watch while the big pod of Killer Whale speculators tear out huge chunks of flesh from the giant Blue Whale that is the hapless G-10.



The CoinGuy
(01/02/2003; 21:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93280)
Kuwaitis Withdraw Capital From US Markets
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/01/01/wirq301.xml/
Snippit:

Kuwaitis, faced with the threat of war against Iraq, are withdrawing hundreds of millions of dollars from America to invest at home.

Comment: Another lifeboat sails into the night from the USS DOLLAR...

The CoinGuy
Black Blade
(01/02/2003; 21:47:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93281)
Re: cyberbat, tevye, and davefinger

Cyberbat � I'm not exactly sure what you mean as far as the PPT throwing endless dollars against gold. If you mean does the "President's Working Group on Financial Markets" (also know as the Plunge Protection Team) "manage" the Gold market then I would say that I doubt they do. The PPT is a coordinated effort by members of the government economic specialists (and presumably includes members of the Federal Reserve and Treasury) and those tied to Wall Street investment banks to "manage" the financial markets. I take this to mean the equities and possibly the bond markets. We know this group exists as outlined by executive order and are allowed to do intervene in these markets as it is a matter of public record. The Gold market in my opinion is more likely "managed" (for lack of a better term) by individual Central Banks, Investment Banks and Funds (and possibly mega-hedged producers) as a matter of survival or promoting the illusion of "no inflation". I am not completely convinced that there is a coordinated "cabal" working to cap the price of Gold, but rather there are many institutions that have backed themselves into a corner with the "Gold Carry Trade" and are now desperate to stop or at least slow the advance of a rising gold price having leased out several thousand tons of Gold. With so many people involved it would stand to reason that if this were a coordinated "conspiracy" among literally dozens of institutions involving hundreds and possibly thousands of people, some one would have blown the whistle (or have written a book after having been laid off/fired). That said, there are many deep pockets on Wall and Broad streets (and around the world) and a Federal Reserve ready and willing to bail out any institution that finds itself with their "tit caught in the wringer". Remember Long Term Capital Management? Recent comments by Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke among others about having the power of the printing press to save the day should also provide fuel for such concerns in the Gold Market (and commodities in general). As it is these institutions are losing their grip on the Gold market as opposing interests (speculators, Funds, some other Banks, the public, etc.) are likely to overwhelm any institution(s) attempting to "manage" the market as economic conditions deteriorate. The more the Fed prints dollars the more likely the threat of inflation that will drive ever more interests toward Gold. So throwing endless dollar to keep Gold down is a self defeating game plan. Anyway that's my take on it.


Tevye and davefinger � If you are referring to the Fidelity Select Gold Fund (FSAGX), the answer may lie in the fact that the Fund manager (I don't recall his name off hand) sold off hedged miners and went nearly all out for non-hedgers. You won't find Barrick, Placer Dome, AngloGold, etc. in the portfolio anymore. The Select Funds routinely rotate young managers as a course of gaining experience (though they are supervised by a team of in house managers). On occasion former or experienced managers are brought in to give a helping hand. There were two funds with a focus on the precious metals and they were combined a couple of years ago into what is now the Select Gold Fund. I still have old IRA investments in this and the Pilgrim Gold Fund (formerly the Lexington Gold Fund combined with the Lexington Strategic Silver Fund).

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(01/02/2003; 21:58:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93282)
Suspects in missionaries' killings are members of cell planning more attacks
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2003-01-02-yemen-suspects_x.htm
Snippit:

SAN'A, Yemen (AP) � Two Islamic militants accused in the slaying of three American Christian missionaries and a leftist Yemeni politician had also planned attacks on journalists, other foreigners and prominent Yemeni politicians, security officials said Thursday. Investigators have compiled a list of eight targets after interrogating the two men, Ali al-Jarallah and Abed Abdul Razak Kamel, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Investigators believe the two are part of a larger cell planning attacks. The officials did not give the full list of alleged targets nor name anyone believed included in the hit list. But they said the targets included a guest house used by Ismaili Muslims in San'a. Some Sunni Muslim extremists consider Ismailism � a form of the Shiite branch of Islam � heretical.

Black Blade: There are likely to many more terrorist attacks around the world against western targets and those not part of the Wahabbi Islamic sect by Islamists as preparations for war picks up and more troops land on the Arabian Peninsula.

Privateer
(01/02/2003; 22:10:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93283)
Libor Gold Lease Rates
http://www.lbma.org.uk/statistics_current.htmI am somewhat surprised that no-one seems to have noticed the CRASH DIVE taken in Libor one year Gold lease rates on the first trading day of 2003, January 2

On Tuesday, December 31, the one year lease rate closed at 0.732%. On the next trading day, Thursday, January 2, it closed at 0.508%. This is a fall of 0.224% in one trading day. Much more to the point, the Libor one year Gold lease rate fell almost one-third (30.6%) of the way to ZERO on January 2.
DummyANI
(01/02/2003; 22:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93284)
��Privateer (01/02/03; 22:10:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 93283)
Your�@Mistake�I
One year Gold lease rates on the first trading day of 2003, January 2 is 0.950%.
Libor rate on the first trading day of 2003, January 2 is 1.458%.
Libor minus One year Gold lease rates equals 0.508%.
Lease rate is up 0.218%, very few physical Gold.

D-ANI
Carl H
(01/02/2003; 23:11:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93285)
R Powell: Silver
Your post deserves a better response than I am capabable of writing at this hour. I will try tomorrow.
Chris Powell
(01/02/2003; 23:16:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93286)
Morgan wants to know where the gold 'rumor' is coming from
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1363Morgan Chase denies "any real exposure" to gold.
Maybe they're telling the truth -- as in half-truth.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1363

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Topaz
(01/02/2003; 23:28:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93287)
Renny, Goldrush.
Renny,
I'm in a similar situation to you...and learning every day. You know, we are blessed in that our Physical holdings are such that their "bulk" does not require "outside involvement" in the form of "vested interest" participation in management...depositories and the like. They qualify as possessions....good ain't it?
ski's point was a good one. "Don't mix your Piles"
Goldrush,
Full bowl of Cereal here Gr...someone else can worry about the Box!
Cheers.
melda laure
(01/02/2003; 23:30:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93288)
JPM no exposure to gold
depends on what the definition of NO is.They have "no" exposure like they had no exposure to Enron... that is until one of their "counterparties" decided that they would um er "default".... as in "WE'RE the victims of insurance FRAUD".

Today they have no exposure.

But who are the counterparties?

Have their deals been fully marked to market? That is to say, have their sugar daddies seen the bill to come? That's the real hard question. Visions of mbia's CDO portfolio come to mind.

"Put all the rats in one trap, said Gandalf".. a little quarantine operation.
Topaz
(01/02/2003; 23:52:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93289)
Cavan Man re: Islamic Dinar/Dirham
The whole point of their approach CM is the establishment of a trading medium untethered.
You or I can produce Dinar/Dirham....and as our reputation for quality "as specified" grows, our coins will increase in circulation.
They don't envisage a convertability with Fiat...other than Au/Ag content.

How this will work in practice is beyond my feeble mind.
Usul
(01/03/2003; 01:17:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93290)
Few car bargains in New Year
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/business/2621743.stm"Tighter margins and falling manufacturer bonuses for dealers, following record sales last year..."

Will this also be seen in the US?
Usul
(01/03/2003; 01:37:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93291)
http://channels.netscape.com/ns/news/story.jsp?floc=FF-PLS-PLS&id=01022308000258529&dt=20030102230800&w=RTR&coview=
CNBC catches 'flu from Wall Street44% drop? Just the beginning. Bubble-Vision is a phenomenon of a bubble market.
Usul
(01/03/2003; 01:41:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93292)
Spike in price of oil
http://www.iht.com/articles/82106.htmlThey spin it as a "spike", as though it MUST come down again, and without much delay. Yet the outcome of potential massive international conflict with side issues such as Venezuela is far from certain.
Goldrush
(01/03/2003; 01:52:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93293)
Oil marches higher
Oil Tops $32 As U.S. Supplies Fall, Winter Sets In
By Tanya Pang


SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices marched higher on Friday over concerns the Venezuelan strike will erode U.S. fuel stockpiles for the next few weeks, as weather forecasters predicted a bitter Arctic blast will soon chill U.S. shores.


The ongoing war of words between Iraq and Washington, as President George W. Bush considers a military strike on Baghdad, also kept oil prices on the boil because any halt to Iraq's two million barrels of daily exports could tighten supplies further.


U.S. light crude traded up 25 cents to $32.10 a barrel at 0500 GMT, extending Thursday's 65-cent jump.


Oil's strong performance at the start of the year came as data showed U.S. crude inventories slipping close to 26-year lows due to the opposition-led strike in Venezuela that has cut petroleum exports to little more than a trickle.


"There's several reasons why you would want to be long in this market at the moment, not least Venezuela and Iraq," said a broker in London.


"We can safely say that even if the strike ends soon, there's no extra oil (that is) going to get to the U.S. in the short term, so stocks are going to fall next week and probably for two weeks after that," he said.


Venezuela usually supplies about 13 percent of U.S. oil imports, but its international sales virtually ground to a halt in December due to the strike aimed at ousting President Hugo Chavez.


Industry data this week showed U.S. crude inventories tumbling by more than nine million barrels, as the world's biggest energy consumer heads into winter's coldest months.


Meteorologists at Salomon Smith Barney predicted on Thursday a big wave of Arctic air would blanket large parts of the United States in the second week of January, which could bring the lowest temperatures so far this winter.


Brokers said a strong price for March U.S. crude futures, which covers barrels for delivery in February, was also an indication the market was expecting tight U.S. supplies.


March crude at $31.38 a barrel is more than $2.80 over the equivalent Brent contract on London's International Petroleum Exchange, which should entice traders to ship crude from Europe to the United States.


The OPEC producers' cartel has pledged to plug any supply gaps created by the Venezuela strike, but Middle East crude takes up to six weeks to reach the United States compared with five days from Venezuela.


"There is a big lag in shipping times and therefore the prospect of OPEC barrels is more emotional rather than practical at this stage," said independent oil analyst Simon Games-Thomas in a daily report.
________
Rally today was on light volume. CRB going up.
With rising energy prices, what is wall street thinkin?
Black Blade
(01/03/2003; 02:16:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93294)
Hey, I'm "Scathing"
http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256CA200789697?OpenDocument
Snippit:

�Black Blade� was scathing: "Given his attitude toward Gold and those who invest in Gold, why does he waste his time hanging around?"

Black Blade: This was in response to a recent article about gold perma-bear Andy Smith. Personally I think this quite humorous as the remark was in regard to how Andy Smith derides gold and gold investors (sorta like Tim Wood). I merely pointed out that if Andy was so unhappy with the subject of Gold and those who invest in the metal, then why does he not seek employment in a field that would give him greater fulfillment and feelings of self worth. That is unless he gets his jollies ridiculing PM investors who after all create a market that provide him with employment. Personally I think that Andy and Tim just try to provoke PM investors to "get a rise" out of people. If I want to be "scathing" I certainly could, but I thought that I was on "good behavior" � ya know, my usual warm fuzzy cuddly self. Hmmm�

Nahhhh! ;-)


Goldrush
(01/03/2003; 02:26:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93295)
You are scathing!
When you get on those-> pimps and trolls of wall street-LOL
Belgian
(01/03/2003; 02:48:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93296)
Connecting some dots....(Goldrush # 93262)
South American leftists, realizing that "their" oil is prized (not valued) by someone else : the dollar ! Yes, a growing oil-value-consciousness, around the entire globe !
No other forum, but this one-through our mentors, is stressing on the (historical) relationship between the US$ and oil.

When Tarek Aziz (Iraq), received a Spanish delegation of peace-activists, he stressed again, in unmistakable terms, that the dollar is after Iraq's (total ME) oil.

How many regimes must be replaced as to keep the dollar an oil-currency ? For how long can the globe be forced to see everything through dollar-glases and live and die as a dollar-derivative ?

Let us not forget that China is already a big importer of oil and that its internal growth is only possible wit an abundant flow of cheap, payable oil ! Is the North Korean pressure used (builded) as to lift a warning finger to those who seek to control oil as the sole instrument for future growth ? Note that South Korean mediators go to China for talks and not to the US !

If South America (AND RUSSIA) should be able to jump on the ME-oil-war...
the dollar is in much more *deep* trouble than originally calculated from the euro-challenge alone.

To minimalize attention to "oil", the word *WMD* MUST be expressed a thousand times a day. The oil-problem will NOT go away before oil manages to receive Another currency or wealth ! A very long war indeed.

Get yourselve the equivalent of oil-wealth, without any further delay.
TownCrier
(01/03/2003; 02:55:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93297)
Notable quote
As reported by Business Day--

Jason Goodwin, author of Greenback, a recently published book on the link between the dollar and US history, describes the relationship between gold and currencies thus:

"Gold, the argument runs, doesn't stoop to flattery. Gold, being tight-lipped, offers no hostages to fortune. It remembers nothing, venerates no one. It trumpets no ideals, protests no loyalties, offers no jam today or tomorrow, doesn't much care if a war rumbles on for years or finishes in a triumphant blitzkrieg. Cold, old and remote, it doesn't even pay interest. The dimmer the days, the more irrational the conflict, the brighter it gleams."

"Gold will always be a part of the mystery of money. Just as it's good for our souls, once in a while, to keep warm around a log fire, or settle down with a good old-fashioned book, so gold can never disappear, because its an eternal, disinterested witness to the tragicomedy of human history."
---

Sensibility dictates a course of action. Call USAGOLD-Centennial today for assistance with your well-advised acquisition.

R.
Black Blade
(01/03/2003; 02:59:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93298)
Gold, the warm log fire in a cold, harsh world
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1256079-6079-0,00.html
Snippit:

Jason Goodwin, author of Greenback, a recently published book on the link between the dollar and US history, describes the relationship between gold and currencies thus: "Gold, the argument runs, doesn't stoop to flattery. Gold, being tight-lipped, offers no hostages to fortune. It remembers nothing, venerates no one. It trumpets no ideals, protests no loyalties, offers no jam today or tomorrow, doesn't much care if a war rumbles on for years or finishes in a triumphant blitzkrieg. Cold, old and remote, it doesn't even pay interest. The dimmer the days, the more irrational the conflict, the brighter it gleams." According to World Gold Council analyst Jill Leyland, gold is often seen as a form of insurance. "You buy it before the event, not afterwards." Since "the event" has not transpired, this additional support for gold has lasted longer than anticipated. "If gold is a magnet for our wartime fears, it is only a brief outburst of irrationality in an irrational world, an atavistic sentiment, fleetingly indulged," writes Goodwin. "Gold will always be a part of the mystery of money. Just as it's good for our souls, once in a while, to keep warm around a log fire, or settle down with a good old-fashioned book, so gold can never disappear, because its an eternal, disinterested witness to the tragicomedy of human history."


Black Blade: Well put.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/03/2003; 03:01:49 MDT - Msg ID: 93299)
Hard assets... Easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Golden Goal


"For as long as cannons have thundered,
they have echoed
with the sound of men yearning for gold."

-- R. Strauss

Black Blade
(01/03/2003; 03:02:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93300)
Looks Like Townie Found The Same Quote!

It definitely caught my attention too. I might have to check out the reviews on Goodwin's book.

- Black Blade
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/03/2003; 05:11:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93301)
"Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

The dollar has been continuously devalued without stop for the past 57 years. It has
not appreciated against goods and services once -- not even once -- in that entire time period.
There are periods when this policy has not been fully reflected in the price of gold.

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

Marie Ballard Ext 106

We look forward to your inquiry.

 

TownCrier
(01/03/2003; 06:02:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93302)
HEADLINE: Gold funds again No. 1 in '02
http://www2.ocregister.com/ocrweb/ocr/article.do?id=18895§ion=BUSINESS&year=2003&month=1&day=3Some managers say the metal could be even more precious to skittish investors as output falls in the next five years.

BOSTON � Mutual funds devoted to gold were the fund industry's best performers in 2002, for a second year. Some of their managers expect the winning streak to be extended this year.

While gold rallied above $350 an ounce in December and reached a 51/2-year high, these managers said the metal and shares of gold producers were so badly beaten during the 1990s that they still have room to move higher.

"There hasn't been any big move into gold - we're not attracting the hot money," said Greg Orrell, manager of the Monterey OCM Gold Fund. "We still sense quite a bit of skepticism. It's still early in this run."

...Funds may benefit from reduced gold production, some investors said. Output will fall 2 percent annually in the next five years, according to Gold Fields Mineral Service.

Gold miners cut spending on exploration every year from 1997 through 2000, according to Frank Holmes, manager of the US Global Investors Gold Shares Fund.

"Imagine if Microsoft or Pfizer had a huge drop-off in spending on research and development," Holmes said. "We're going to have a shrinkage of supply."

Increasing gold purchases by Chinese investors could bolster the metal in 2003 as well, Orrell said. China began sales of gold bullion to individuals last month for the first time since 1949, when communists took charge.

--------(article at url)--------

Not surprisingly, the commentary indicates that gold has ample upside even in light of past years' gains. The money supply game and confidence game being what it is, it isn't hard to imagine gold sailing as papery products of all sorts fall under suspicion, including shares in gold funds themselves. Even a portfolio of gold stocks and funds should be diversified with metal.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper. How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD -Centennial has bullion, bars, coins, and certified coins to help you secure your position.

R.
TownCrier
(01/03/2003; 06:05:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93303)
Diversification alternatives
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/rationale.htmlCall MK, Jon, or George today to discuss a strategy that's right for you.
Belgian
(01/03/2003; 06:17:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93304)
@ Ax : The US buying Gold ???
*WHO* is going to sell *WICH* Gold to the US-treasury...for more US$ ???
3,000 tonnes of underground gold have already been sold forward. Paper-gold-claims exeeding 15,000 tonnes are standing out. Euroland's Gold-reserves are NOT for sale against dollars to be added to the already obsolete, massive, dollar-exchange-reserves. China, Russia are mining the Gold for themselves and South Africa, Canada, Australia can only sell Gold, profitable, as long as their currencies keep on declining against the dollar.

Any "Gold-buy" by the US would make its dollar *WEAKER* in Gold (POG-rise=more dollars per ounce). And you certainly know what will happen (is happening) when the dollar goes down !

THE GOLD BALL IS NOT IN THE DOLLAR CAMP...anymore !

The US has been losing the bulk of its Goldreserves up to 1971 (28,000 tonnes > 8,160 tonnes). The dollar went for the oil and is doing the same thing today in a last gigantic effort to have its reserve-currency backed with a portion of real wealth (confiscated ME-SA-oil).

A new rumor is launched that the ME wishes Saddam to step down if the US should start the attack on Iraq !? The sacrificial lamb theory (speculation). POO is on its eleventh day out of the 22$-28$ range. Saudi taps should open after 9 days ? Yes, the *supply* of oil will never be a problem...only the worthless $-currency that is paid for it ! The great broken promiss. Let's price Gold correctly and open the oil-taps for abundant cheap flow. Non Arabian oil-producers (South American) will re-think the dollar's intrinsic worth, again and again up until they understand and make Another choice.
Rock
(01/03/2003; 07:00:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93305)
Three Words For Yesterdays Rally
DEAD CAT BOUNCE!
Rock
(01/03/2003; 07:18:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93306)
Want A Good Laugh?
Watch the Mummy tonight at 8:30 pm EST, guest speaker Abby Joseph Cohen.
R Powell
(01/03/2003; 07:54:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93307)
Quick Quiz
Just a quick one question quiz to see if everyone has been paying attention...

Black Blade is best described as
A. Warm
B. Fuzzy
C. Cuddly
D. Scathing
Rock
(01/03/2003; 08:15:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93308)
Answer to Blackblade Quiz:
He's warm to us and scathing to the street. lol
miner49er
(01/03/2003; 08:25:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93309)
Belgian --- a breath of fresh air...
Just wanted to say it's been most enjoyable seeing you back, and reading your thoughts of late... A little holiday break does wonders, no?

Dollars paperized to the heavens, and people will suddenly realize just how really SCARCE the precious yellow METAL actually is...

Great stuff!

Paper Avalanche -- saw your mention of me in your list the other day... thx... I'm in and out with so many other obligations right now, that I just have no time to post, or even really keep up with the forum of late.

All -- Best wishes for a safe and prosperous new year...

miner
White Rose
(01/03/2003; 09:03:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93310)
Silver getting closer to $4.89
Sinclair said that $4.89 might be the launch point for silver. Any comments right now?
Genoo
(01/03/2003; 09:06:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93311)
spot gold and spot silver
In late December 2002 Spot gold broke through and held above the $340 level. So far each time it is pushed down it is pushed less close to the $340 level. In the past two days it continues to demonstrate great volatility eg. today, to this time, it has moved sharply back and forth and all in a negative direction until a few minutes ago when it turned green and is currently up $.80 as I type. It appears to be behaving in a restless manner and wants to break higher but seems to be waiting for something to spur it on.

Spot silver is now plus $.04 at $4.83 [and Turk recently recommened a contract be bought at the first close above $4.76].

Perhaps silver is telling us that it is going to run and 'take' gold with it...wouldn't that be a great way to end the first week of the 2003 gold bull market.
Truthcaster
(01/03/2003; 09:25:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93312)
Gold and Sliver
I Agree with Genoo-
Yesterday while spot gold was down, and at one point
down over 4 bucks silver was a little higher, and
I thought gosh silver should be down 10 to 15 cents
like normal. So today same thing silver clearly
is leading gold higher. Wild. But too last week
before silver had it's little run silver mining co's
were out and running in like (CDE) And Apex silver mines
posting big gains while the gold sector was lagging
somewhat. Should be fun to watch....
cyberbat
(01/03/2003; 09:30:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93313)
Skyward!
Ladies and gentleman, we have a vertical lift off by the good ship "Spot" to 348.50 and climbing.All I can say is "Go with throttles Up"!!
sector
(01/03/2003; 09:49:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93314)
Federal Reserve Bank of New York: No Open market Action Today...
...the aggregate Repo "Float" has fallen......from $40.75 Billion on Dec 26th to $24 Billion today as a result of expirations.

This since Novemebr 18th when I began tracking the numbers [Plus or minus a cell entry error or two].

Looks like the Fed sent a tiny message today. Maybe the party is over. Time to start the war.
+++++++++++++
cyberbat
(01/03/2003; 10:00:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93315)
Still Climbing
$350.90 and steady.
sector
(01/03/2003; 10:07:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93316)
Can You Say...
...backwardationAny close above $348 will mark an important day of backwardation. That will stress the cabal even further. Note also the silver moves and the departure of the new "There-must-be-a-mountain-of-silver-just-waiting-to-be-sold" guys from the forum board.

Maybe they made one last effort before running from the explosion they knew was coming.
Gandalf the White
(01/03/2003; 10:13:30 MDT - Msg ID: 93317)
Way ta GO, SPOT !!!
Sic "em SPOT !!
Jump !!
<;-)
Cavan Man
(01/03/2003; 10:18:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93318)
sector 93314
Can you interpret for this poor, dumb mick.
a nation of one
(01/03/2003; 10:30:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93319)
...

If anyone ever wanted to jump in, now is the time.

mikal
(01/03/2003; 10:31:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93320)
@sector
I apologize to those who come to the forum seeking open discussion and friendly advice for the goings on here. Sector, you are the only one who repeatedly mischaracterizes the silver discussion held on two nights. If you can't agree with the idea that silver will be volatile, and possibly become overbought at lofty levels, fine. But you refuse to play on a level playing field, respect or even acknowledge the ideas and people. Your attempt yesterday to portray us as greasy agents of JPM for example. Or set aprice around $3.00 that we NEVER came close to saying. You cannot even admit you twisted my words and insulted me in one post. I for one have encouraged and even complimented you in the past, not for your ego.
R Powell
(01/03/2003; 10:34:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93321)
Gold and silver Up // Kitco down
Gold up 6.00 to 351.80
Silver up 0.08 to 4.87
And Kitco is, of course, down. A reminder for her fans, Abbey Joe will be the guest analyst on the Ruyksters show tonight.
Note for Sector, Seattle Sun reports that the FIG index you follow will not be given today. I guess the math was too hard to compute. It gets tough with big numbers.
Rich
cyberbat
(01/03/2003; 10:39:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93322)
Viewership down
The Drudge report has an article about CNBC. Their audience is down 44%!! Maybe the sheepal are beginning to catch on. I know CNBC will.
a nation of one
(01/03/2003; 10:52:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93323)
world markets

Some day the right people are going to realize that everyone needs to be able to trade in every market every hour of every day. When this becomes possible, market manipulation will dramatically decrease, market prices will more accurately be in agreement with general realities, and many more people will become very, very rich.
knotakare
(01/03/2003; 11:02:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93324)
Sector: scource of Repo numbers
Where do you access the FED repo numbers? Very interesting your observation. Thank you,

knotakare
a nation of one
(01/03/2003; 11:35:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93325)
means more than one thing

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I'm not mistaken a steel blade becomes black when it's cut into a lot meat and has been covered with blood a lot of times.

Gandalf the White
(01/03/2003; 11:39:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93326)
Sir Nation of "1"
a nation of one (1/3/03; 11:35:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 93325)
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I'm not mistaken a steel blade becomes black when it's cut into a lot meat and has been covered with blood a lot of times.
===
ONLY if it is OLD and "porous" !
The Hobbits LOVE ya Black Blade !!
<;-)
a nation of one
(01/03/2003; 11:45:49 MDT - Msg ID: 93327)
obsidian would be too

I see nothing wrong with it. A man needs to be able to take care of himself. As for age, I am old myself. I still learn much on account of the superior quality of Black Blade's work. And when it's not here, I feel its absence.


Maverick1
(01/03/2003; 12:02:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93328)
@R Powell
I guess it is time to reach up the back of "Gabby Abby" and pull the string that will keep her spewing her stock predictions for another year! What a moron she is!
Gandalf the White
(01/03/2003; 12:06:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93329)
TAKE a Weekend REST both of you, SPOT and SPIKE !
Well that US$350. BARRIER was not so HIGH afterall !
Way ta GO, SPOT
The range today on the COMEX Feb Contract was $9.9 between a High of $353.5 and a LOW of $343.6.
Settlement looks to be somewhere around $351.4 ---BUT is it too early to tell as my Crystal Ball has a LEGALLY required DELAY on that number !
NEXT week looks to be even MORE interesting !
<;-)
a nation of one
(01/03/2003; 12:09:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93330)
@ mikal (1/3/03; 10:31:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 93320)

You said to Sector: "I for one have encouraged and even complimented you in the past,...."

--That was your mistake. Young males don't need compliments. What they appreciate is instruction. If you have to compliment someone, compliment me, I'm old enough to enjoy it even when I know it isn't true. What is that old saying? "The old -who forgive themselves everything- are forgiven nothing; whereas the young, although they forgive themselves nothing, are forgiven everything." Most young mens' egos, though, don't need any help.
Gandalf the White
(01/03/2003; 12:19:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93331)
GC3G Settlement today was OFFICALLY = $351.6 ........+ $5.1
WHAT a difference a couple of days makes !
Have a GREAT weekend all, as I have a GOLDEN BIRTHDAY Party to host this weekend for all the Hobbits!!
See you next week.
"Poor" OLD Gandy
<;-)
a nation of one
(01/03/2003; 12:24:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93332)
gabby abby

Re: Maverick1 (1/3/03; 12:02:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 93328)

You say: "I guess it is time to reach up the back of "Gabby Abby" and pull the string that will keep her spewing her stock predictions for another year! What a moron she is!"

--Abby is not a moron. She is as smart as they come. She merely understands that she can't make any money selling bear market stocks to a bunch of customers who lack the wherewithal to figure out how to sell anything short. Why do you think the stock market recovers every time it falls five or six inches? It's because the crashmongers make more money that way. And not every person believes it is important to speak only truth. Some are willing to do anything that may be necessary to get themselves an extra buck or two. A lot of people -I'm not one of them- would say that the problem is not that she has sold out and that you and I have not, but that you and I have not sold out, period.

(Of course this does not mean that I approve of her methods. Just that I know what they are.)
sector
(01/03/2003; 12:54:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93333)
@knotacare The FRBNY issues the repo amounts through...
http://app.ny.frb.org/dmm/mkt.cfm...its website listed above. It takes a while to load.

@mikal I reacted to Mr. Bill's shots and his curious ignorance, didn't intend to smite you. Indeed your diligent and informative posts enhance us all at this board.

My first silver post merely posited some ideas supporting caution in silver due to the hidden issues shrouded therein.

I do, however, differ with the concepts of "Overbought" and "Oversold" to describe what has been and clearly is, a manipulated precious metals market...especially silver.

There can be no Elliott wave, fibbonacci number, bull-flag, teacup or pattern-based technical [price driven] analysis in such a market because the primary influencer is the third party intervention of the federal government into the otherwise free precious metals market. The basis for technical analysis is quite valid in all other two-party market transactions but fails in a three-party regime as we see today. Sinclair's bet with the Elliot wavers is as safe as snow on Mt. Denali.

Incidentally the inability to predict the future positions in a three-body, gravitationally bound astronomical system is referred to as the "Three-Body" problem. I has been known for centuries as the prime example of how non-linear, chaotic problems defy solution. It for this exact reason that a manipulated financial market cannot be "Predicted" with any success because the future actions of one of the players [The government] cannot be known from the price data. Only from external market sources can one glean future possibilities.

One tactic of manipulators is to employ an army of confusers who point to sources of potential commodity that would cause a price fall. Some of these voices don't know they are being used, some do...and get paid. You are not in this group, "Mr. Bill" is [Whether he knows it or not].
+++++++++

@CavenMan The backwardation that we now find ourselves in simply means that spot is higher than the nearest month futures contract. This condition effects gold lease rates across the boards in such a way so as to further volatility which is bad for those hoping to keep gold down.




Black Blade
(01/03/2003; 12:56:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93334)
A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/charts/cdcharttcl?symm=GLD.FX1&hist=1&dbrushwidth=1&charttype=1&gd1=na&gd2=na&benchmark=∈fos=3∈dtype1=0∈dtype2=0&volumen=2
A very nice chart - (see link)

- Black Blade (a warm fuzzy cuddly guy who is also "scathing")
Black Blade
(01/03/2003; 13:09:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93335)
The EIA NatGas Weekly Storage Report

Storage Highlights:

Working gas in storage was 2,417 Bcf as of Friday, December 27, 2002, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 123 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 572 Bcf less than last year at this time and 95 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,512 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 128 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 68 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 13 Bcf below the 5-year average of 677 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 29 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 46 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 26 Bcf. At 2,417 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

Black Blade: This is the upper end of withdrawal predicted and if predictions for an Artic blast hold true along with declining production we could see some rocketing NG and electricity rates on top of already rising costs. And the last couple of weeks were warmer than the average temperature. This is coincident with rising oil prices, record low oil inventories, threat of war in Iraq, and Venezuelan reductions in production and exports. Not a pretty picture for the US economy. "Interesting Times"
SilverHoard
(01/03/2003; 13:35:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93336)
Black Blade #93334
BB, Do not want to put you on the spot (bad pun), please tell us your opinion as to the reason for this spike. If this level should hold, what is the forecast for even higher short term levels?
PS: Have used this link for Silver too. Seems to be up more than other site.
Maverick1
(01/03/2003; 13:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93337)
@a nation of one
Touche'....I judged the book by its cover....I still don't like it.
Black Blade
(01/03/2003; 13:56:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93338)
Re: SilverHoard
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
You will find that answer in today's Daily Market Report (at the link). I just put it up. We are in a secular bull market and the stock market is in a secular bear market. However, today the concern is on geopolitical and US corporate profit concerns. Also, the USD and equities are weaker and threaten to weaken further as next week we enter "confession season" as companies spin their tall tales and "analysts" (and I use the term very loosely) remark that these companies "met or beat" vastly lowered earnings estimates. That said, the war talk has really intensified and energy costs are rapidly rising on fast decling inventories. Heck, even some politicos are calling for a raid on the "Strategic Petroleum Reserve". This reflects a desperate situation as oil hits record US inventory lows and fast decling inventories (and production) of domestic NatGas. The implications for corporations and consumers is obvious. This is very much like what preceded the era of "Stagflation" in the 1970's and early 1980's. It should get rather "interesting".

Cheers!

- Black Blade (the warm fuzzy cuddly scathing one)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/03/2003; 13:57:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93339)
Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors
PRIMARY TRENDS

Just as the primary trend in gold is up as shown by our nearby
graph, the primary trend in stocks is down. If you diversify your
portfolio with gold, you not only gain by being in gold, you gain what
you would have lost in the stock market. Richard Russell, the
well-regarded long-time investment analyst who has correctly and
consistently forecasted the direction of both markets, says the stock
market and gold will cross in the 2000 to 3000 area
. Think about that
for a moment. What will that mean to your portfolio if not properly
diversified with gold? What will it mean if it is?

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

Black Blade
(01/03/2003; 14:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93340)
Crude Oil Rises on Signs Venezuela Strike Is Draining Supply
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhWxKxW0Q3J1ZGUg
Snippit:

New York, Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a second day on concern the monthlong strike in Venezuela that has crippled output from the fifth-largest oil exporter is draining U.S. inventories. Analysts said they doubt Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez can make good on a pledge to restore full output in six weeks. Industry and government reports this week showed U.S. supplies were 10 percent lower than a year ago because of the strike. ``We finally got the data that proves we have a supply problem,'' said Bill O'Grady, director of fundamental futures research at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``The fields in Venezuela are missing needed maintenance. When the strike is over they are going to have a mess on their hands and it will take a long time for production to recover.''

Black Blade: The Venezuelan situation is no closer to a resolution and the threat of civil war looms as well. There are reports of soldiers and police lining up on both sides.

Black Blade
(01/03/2003; 14:43:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93341)
Japanese reluctantly turn to bankruptcy to survive
http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/3565832.html
Snippit:

OSAKA, JAPAN -- At the cramped offices of the Icho-no-kai credit counseling center in Osaka, about a dozen workers, housewives and other hard-luck cases are engaged in what has become an increasingly common ritual: They are declaring bankruptcy. Once almost inconceivable in a nation that places such a high value on savings, Japanese are resorting to personal bankruptcy in record numbers in response to a punishing squeeze caused by five consecutive years of falling wages and rising unemployment. As their financial woes have worsened, many have turned first to legal lenders but then often to loan sharks who charge rapidly compounding interest rates. To escape this trap, about 220,000 people are expected to seek protection from creditors this year, up more than a third from 2001. Declaring bankruptcy in Japan still is relatively uncommon, and Americans are four times as likely as Japanese to seek bankruptcy protection. But as long as the stagnation of the Japanese economy continues, personal bankruptcies seem likely to continue growing sharply. According to some estimates, as many as 2 million Japanese are effectively bankrupt but haven't filed the paperwork, or can't. Even that does not convey the full extent of the financial stress in Japan. Despite encouragement from a government that is committed to making it cheaper and easier to file for bankruptcy, every year thousands of people in distress commit suicide, police statistics show, rather than face their debt collectors, friends and families in shame. "People get desperate," said Yoshiaki Tanaka, the secretary-general of Icho-no-kai, which has experienced a sixfold increase in visitors in the past two years. "A drowning man will grasp at straws."

Black Blade: The situation is getting much worse. For those who understand the Japanese culture where winning is everything, failure is more than an embarrassment. Many seek to escape by suicide (no not necessarily the traditional Hari Kiri ritual). At one point distressed business people would throw themselves into the path of speeding bullet trains leading many engineers to psychological counseling. It is no wonder then that Japanese housewives and young Japanese are seeking safety in Gold. Gold purchases are on the surge in Japan once again as the realization the government is unable or unwilling to take the necessary steps to clean up the economy and force the failed banking sector into much needed reforms. Truly a "grim" and sad situation.

Goldrush
(01/03/2003; 14:47:22 MDT - Msg ID: 93342)
More violence in Venezuela
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex&box=ad_box_all&tag=worldnews∣dle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APhX9IhaVVmVuZXp1Caracas, Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan soldiers fired tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse thousands of demonstrators near an army base, and President Hugo Chavez said he considered declaring a state of emergency to end a national strike.

One person was injured by a gun shot and five others by rocks in clashes between anti-Chavez and pro-government protesters, Globovision television reported. Police said seven officers had also been injured.

``We're trying to disperse everyone before someone gets killed,'' Henry Vivas, who heads the capital's metropolitan police, told reporters. Scattered skirmishes between Chavez supporters and opponents continued near the Fuerte Tiuna base, where a dissident national guard general is being held.
____________
Oil field maintenance has been neglected, fields are a mess.
It will take months to get fields up and producing at pre-conflict
levels even if conflict ended today.
Pippin
(01/03/2003; 15:00:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93343)
Elliott Waves ...again.
I would be thankful if one of the experts here could give me his opinion on Prechter's reiterated view that POG is reaching a top and will decline sharply within the next weeks -although he's quite bullish on gold long term-.
He seems to have a good tracking record and quite a number of success stories to tell, but I must say I'm a bit confused. Among all people agreeing that the economic situation is between bad and dramatic, he's the only one claiming that POG will drop. And when I say , I think of a bottom like ...$200.
Last but not least, he forecasted a top at $350.-- a few months ago. So he's not surprised by the present level.
Any opinion ?
TownCrier
(01/03/2003; 15:13:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93344)
Cavan Man's question on the Fed's repo position (msg#: 93318)
Very basically, the decline in the amount of outstanding volume of repo-facilitated reserves seen at this time is a consequence of the Christmas/New Year's holiday season being now behind us.

There is always (on top of the larger trend) a seasonal bubble of cash withdrawals that the Fed compensates for with repos. These additional reserves are allowed to run off as the money in wallets and purses finds its way back into bank deposits as the holiday's wind down.

Did that do the trick for you?

Randy
Paper Avalanche
(01/03/2003; 15:25:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93345)
Is anyone watching CNBC this afternoon?
I just watched the commodities scroll across the bottom of the screen at 5:25 pm EST on CNBC and they had POG at 344 and POS at 4.80.

Did someone change the paper prices AFTER the close or is this likely a glitch in CNBC's system? Did anyone else see this? I am going to watch it again to see if this changes.

Thanks!
Paper Avalanche
Paper Avalanche
(01/03/2003; 15:36:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93346)
Saw it again on CNBC
The question that I cannot avoid asking:

Glitch or intentional?

Going to the gym.

PA
Black Blade
(01/03/2003; 15:41:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93347)
Re: Paper Avalanche

Gold finished above $350 an ounce with no subsequent trade. The scrawl is stuck since this morning even as the POG surged higher. Of course it can't be that certain interests would like to dishearten Gold investors could it? Hmmm...

Nahhh!

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!
Gold Standard
(01/03/2003; 16:04:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93348)
Now its going to hit the fan.....
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/030103/markets_gold_jpmorgan_1.html
Full text from above link:

Reuters
JP Morgan asks SEC to check into gold trade rumors
Friday January 3, 3:45 pm ET


NEW YORK, Jan 3 (Reuters) - JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM - News), a major bullion dealing bank, said Friday it has asked the Securities and Exchange Commission to look into rumors about gold trading losses that dogged the bank throughout 2002.

"We brought the nature and subject of the rumors to the SEC and asked them to look at it," a spokesman for the bank said.

The rumors about Morgan's gold and gold derivatives operations have been propagated over the Web site of the Gold Anti Trust Action Committee (GATA), a group that alleges bullion banks have colluded with central banks to prevent the price of bullion from rising.

The price of gold is at its highest in almost six years.

JP Morgan, which ran into trouble over its commodity and derivatives dealings with bankrupt energy giant Enron Corp., said in November that market talk that it lost between $17 billion and $70 billion during the gold rally was "false and irresponsible."

The rumors surfaced several times last year, hurting the bank's stock price.

Two weeks ago GATA said it will assist an anti-trust lawsuit filed by U.S. coin and bullion dealer Blanchard and Co. against JP Morgan and Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold (Toronto:ABX.TO - News) accusing each of manipulating the gold market to keep prices weak.

Barrick dismissed the allegations of the lawsuit as ludicrous and without merit. JP Morgan declined to comment.
___________________________________________________________

I wonder whether this will receive wide mainstream publicity? Is this the first time that GATA has been mentioned in the media without the tags "conspiracy theorists" or "nutters"?

If BB wasn't at the gym, he'd say "Interesting".

Cheers
Mr. Bill
(01/03/2003; 16:07:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93349)
@sector
I am curious. Do you get paid by the week or by the post for each bit of nonsense about silver that you provide. If I was going to set up a sting in silver, I sure could use someone like you on my payroll. Lemmings tend to like big lies.
Topaz
(01/03/2003; 16:21:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93350)
Bonds
http://www.smartmoney.com/onebond/index.cfm?story=yieldcurve....play the Movie, note the trend....and the steepening of late.
Mr Greenspan may well come to GWB's "economic stimulus" party on Tuesday with a 1/4% cut.
The behemoth US Banking system on a saline drip.
@Pippin,
Elliot wave AND Mr Gold both miss the point imo...Gold 320, Euro parity and rate cut dead ahead, assuming those pesky Gold mutuals don't spoil the fun.

sector
(01/03/2003; 16:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93351)
@Pippin Elliot's @200 per ounce gold Forecast...
...has a zero probability of happening. Elliott isIndeed, seeing $300 again has a very near zero probability due to the logical condition that the central banks have sold forward 16,000 tonnes of their 32,000 tonne stash so far in order to cap gold these last 7 years.

In order to get gold back down to $200 the sales of all their assets in gold would therefore be required and even THAT is in question since the rising demand is so powerful these days.

The only force acting to keep gold and silver down where it is today is the continued sales of metal from official central bank sources.
CBWS
(01/03/2003; 16:47:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93352)
Bush Spins Economic woes to Terrorism
Step 1. A terrorist act in the US. Step 2. Bush war is justified and blame for the economy is spun further. Step 3. American people are not fooled and PM's go higher. Step 4.....?
R Powell
(01/03/2003; 16:51:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93353)
Pippin
Elliott wave theory is not my strong suit but I'll compound your question by corrolating it with the inflation/deflation question. The only way I can envision a POG at $200 is if severe deflation dries up the flow of money to the point that no one wants to part with whatever cash they still hold. That is, under our present green fiat money system. However, if POG were at $2000/ounce and the government announced that as of next Tuesday all green money had to be redeemed for blue colored bucks at a rate of 10 green ones for each new blue one, what then would be the POG?
I have noticed while trying to understand technical analysis that if there is more than one technical analyst involved in prediction, there will usually be more than one forecast. This is true even if the group is strickly Elliot wavers (as opposed to any number of other technical systems). I don't suppose this answers your question at all but it gives me an excuse to post so I can say...
Happy Weekend !!
Rich
Christian
(01/03/2003; 17:37:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93354)
(No Subject)
Mortgage refinancings and home equity lending have been at the epicenter of the credit explosion. Our financial system is a house of cards built on financial leverage, credit excesses, speculation and derivatives. All made possible because the banksters own the gold. The problem with the present monetary system is that there is not enough real physical money in circulation to pay back the loans and interest. The real money supply is collapsing while credit money supply is expanding. In 1997 interest cost to profits were 23% and in 2002 interest cost to profits were 100% of profits. By 2010 interest cost will exceed 200% of profits. People, states, corporations, are doing what the federal government is doing --- BORROW to make the payment due. How did we ent up with $78 Trillion off balance sheet Federal debt and the $49 Trillion off balance sheet State debt. The housing bubble is made possible with credit not cash. Watch how credit equity disappears in the comming years and at the same time property taxes increase
The Invisible Hand
(01/03/2003; 17:54:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93355)
Another denial: UK housing bubble is not bursting
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-531612,00.htmlSNIP
WARNINGS that the house price boom is on the brink of a painful crash were rejected yesterday by the Governor of the Bank of England as he tried to calm mounting fears over the economy.

===
Bush says he's going to liberate Iraq. Liberate from what? Who's asking to be liberated?
Bush says Iraq must disarm. How can Iraq possibly disarm if it has no WMD, but only invisible arms?
Is the war also a pretext to let the US housing bubble burst?
Chris Powell
(01/03/2003; 18:04:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93356)
Morgan Chase stomps around some more in pursuit of that nasty 'rumor'
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1366How could anyone possibly think that Morgan
Chase is in the gold business?

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1366

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
sector
(01/03/2003; 19:33:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93357)
@ The Invisible Hand About Iraq and the pretext for war
It's the housing bubble and a lot more..."Is the war a pretext to let the housing bubble burst?"

Well... it seems that it is a pretext for many things, not the least of which is a play for Middle East oil. There is simply no way to ever balance the trade deficit, the US budget deficit and execute a US economic recovery without the theft of Iraq's oil through some propped-up US puppet. The abyss of the US trade deficit is too deep. A whole bunch of other macro economic things will happen in the fog of this war too.

The US build-up of 80,000 Iraq troupes look to be achieved towards the end of this month.

Of that number [IF it is the real final number] only a fraction will be fighting...say...40%. The rest as support and battle reserves. The Iraqis have 300,000 guys with guns. This 80,000 US figure runs counter to the floated Pentagon party-line supporting General Tommy Franks request for 250,000 troupes. Even a novice military wonk can see that trying to do this Iraq War thingy with too few people is a recipe for disaster, no matter how superior our war toys are. It is a very long way [400 kms] from Basra to Baghdad�a supply line that must be defended in a very hostile enviornment.

It will be a street fight, house-to-house in both places and Saddam will use VX to kill his own folks and successfully blame Bush. Al Jazzera will be there at the WMD ground zero with help from CNN's recalled-from-retirement correspondent Peter Arnett. They will show round-the-clock tape of the civilian carnage. All that will be needed to make this scenario a perfect, apocalyptic "Ten" is for a junior US field commander to launch a few "Theater nukes".

Any moderate Arabs left will be radicalized in a white flash. The UN will go ballistic. China will not stay silent as the President's advisors [Rove, et al] suggest even as the North Koreans put the finishing touches on their own latest shipment [To the Mid East] of freshly minted Kilo-tonners. The US anti-war folks will be galvanized into action. The center of Washington will be invaded and overrun in a few days time as the White House marvels at how they misread the American anti-war sentiment. Al Gore may even lumber out of retirement�but only if he can grow his beard back quickly enough.

The Russian Defense Minister Sergi Ivanov said of Iraq a few weeks ago, if they believe they have been wrongly invaded, "The Iraqis will fight". What if the Iraqi civilians fight too? There are over 2 million people in Baghdad. Could they actually get weapons? Hey�it's the Middle East, weapons grow on fig trees.

All the while the opportunistic Russians will circle overhead of the mess to swoop down at just the right time to come out way ahead as a cool-headed and rational "Peacemakers".

What a country.
Dollar Bill
(01/03/2003; 19:36:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93358)
Bill Murphy still confused.
Bill Murphy still doesnt know what he is doing.
He has no plan for bridgeing from this system to another.
He has no answer when asked about the consequences if he is successful, he has no plan for the billions of people who rely on the best efforts (even if flawed) of the worlds
central bankers to provide a way for us all to live and eat.

He proudly hopes to undermine the present system of fiat without any plan whatsoever to lead us to any alternate.

Speak up murphy, but you wont, you have nothing to reply.
R Powell
(01/03/2003; 19:37:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93359)
Rukeyser // Abbey Joe
As is his custom, he opened with a summary of the week's stock market action noting the upturn of the Dow index as a possible good omen for the year ahead. Yes, he did mention gold stating that gold stock funds were the leaders, not only last year but for the last two years. He also noted that the POG was off its 1999 lows and now above $350.

Of his panelists, only Frank Capiello mentioned gold by saying that he would now take some profits (sell) from mining stocks. Funny, I don't ever remember him recommending buying them.

Abbey Joe has not lost an iota of her slick charm. Her past horrendous predictions were excused on the bases that no one could have predicted the attack on America, the extent of corporate fraud or the present uncertain geo-political atmosphere. This, of course, assumes that these are the causes of the present conditions. Nothing else was mentioned such as the fact that the markets were tanking long before Sept. 11, 2001.
Abbey is still optimistic, believes the S+P is undervalued, GDP will be about 3%, sees no double dip recession and predicts a year end DOW near 10,800. Wow! She did concede that the dollar is and has been overvalued for years but did not elaborate on this condition. Corporate bookkeeping is now the "cleanest" that she can remember. I found myself wondering that if she can state this now, the statement implies the ability to evaluate and differentiate between honest and fraudulent company reports. This begs the question of where were the warnings of possible fraud before the fact. She is still a cool, confident and camera friendly presence with the ability to smoothly answer questions with well structured responses. I don't agree with her analysis but could not help but admire her showmanship. Imho, she will dazzle many investors again and the Bear will not suffer for lack of investment funds to rampage.
Rich
Sierra Madre
(01/03/2003; 19:52:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93360)
Sector: Again, "What a country!"

Yes, indeed, what a country!

Iraq will be a lead-pipe-cinch. No problema. Two weeks.

All it takes, will be the use of micro-, mini- and mega-(if necessary) nukes. Bim! Bam! Boom! Iraqis erradicated. Baghdad is no more. And what will the "International Community" say? They can say what they please. But, they better watch their words, cause Uncle Sam on the rampage - he might not care for criticism.

It seems to me we keep thinking of US intervening in Iraq, according to what we have seen before.

Desperate situations call for desperate measures, and the US (who wouda thunk!) may go in for nukes right and left, until mission accomplished.

Sierra
R Powell
(01/03/2003; 19:58:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93361)
Dollar Bill
I don't think Bill Murphy ever aspired to fix the world or any part of it including the monetary system. As I understand the situation, he believes the free market process has been subverted and intensionally manipulated. He is crusading to uncover and bring the facts of the matter to public attention. There are laws against those actions which he claims are routinely performed. He and GATA are trying to prove that anti-trust laws have been violated, laws with many believe are essential to insure freedom, free markets and liberty. The beast Murphy fears is an unfettered, totalitarian central government. Whether he is right or wrong in his assessment of this or to what extent he is correct is not the issue, the issue is that he is willing to stand up and investigate. Hopefully time will disclose the truth of the matter, whatever that truth is. He has never stated that he wishes to change the system or made any claims whatsoever that he could. He's simply trying to force the existing legal system to function as it should by uncovering what he believes is unlawful, unethical and a threat to free enterprise.
Rich
Goldrush
(01/03/2003; 20:04:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93362)
More tragedy
CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Two people were shot dead and two dozen were wounded on Friday when foes and supporters of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez clashed in Caracas as the opposition stepped up street protests in its drive to force the leftist leader to resign.

Demonstrators and police ran for cover after dozens of gunshots rang out near the capital's military headquarters, breaking the uneasy Christmas calm that had settled over the streets during an ongoing 33-day-old opposition strike.

"There was a volley of shots. We all threw ourselves to the ground. There was chaos and total panic. The shooting didn't stop," said a Reuters photographer at the scene.

National Guard troops and police fired tear gas and shotgun pellets to stop a few hundred Chavez supporters from attacking thousands of opposition marchers, who were also forced back by troops. Confused running battles broke out as groups from both sides hurled rocks.

City health officials said two of six people hit by gunfire had died. Another person was injured by police shotgun pellets and at least 20 people were wounded by stones and objects thrown by protesters.

It was unclear who had opened fire, but witnesses saw several people on both sides produce handguns after the shooting began.

Columns of smoke wafted high above apartment blocks in the southwest part of Caracas as pro-Chavez demonstrators set up burning barricades near Fuerte Tiuna military base to block the opposition marchers demanding the government free a dissident general detained this week.
__________________________

R Powell- Thats a good one, I don't remember Frank recommending
gold stocks either. Biggs was on a couple weeks ago and Louis
asked him would he put 10% into gold, and Biggs paused for
a long... pregnant ...moment... and finally snapped no. There was
a collective sigh of relief and grins all round.
I've never heard silver stocks discussed on bubblevision....ever.
Albatros
(01/03/2003; 20:28:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93363)
Musical ships & other things down under...
According to local press reports, the aircraft carrier USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN and its battle group is planning to return to the port of Fremantle in Western Australia next Monday for an undetermined period of time only nine days after departing from a week's R&R over Christmas. The ships had been sheduled to return to the US but are now reportedly being prepared for possible action off Iraq.

Australian consultants reportedly estimating Australian Superannuation funds lost an average of 7.2% in 2002, being the worst outcome in 28 years. In real terms 9 million Australians who had AUD 500 billion in retirement savings at the beginning of 2002, are now AUD 38 billion lighter in retirement savings. Australian markets were down 8.5% for the year.

Australia is currently suffering one of the worst droughts on record and most farmers will be scratching to find the cash to sow new crops this year. Livestock being depleted.

So much for one of the world's best performing economies & little wonder Spot is jumping...
Sierra Madre
(01/03/2003; 20:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93364)
This is a Precious Metals Forum, especially, a Gold Forum

And we don't care too much for Dollar Bills in these parts.

Sierra
Sierra Madre
(01/03/2003; 20:52:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93365)
I've been wanting to mention this, last couple of days....

Something tells me - of course, I may be quite mistaken - that GWB is having second thoughts about War on Iraq.

I sure hope he does, and calls the whole operation off; it would be the humane thing to do. Probably, a sensible thing, too.

But, think of his personal situation: here he has cranked up the US population since 911, about WAR. First that sitting duck, Afghanistan. Now, the massive buildup of troops, ships, planes, nukes, the works just outside Iraq. And then, he says, "OK men, the war if OFF, everybody goes home."

All this hoopla, and then - no war. How could GWB stand this? Even if it were the right thing to do?

And yet, I have this feeling that GWB is getting cold feet.

For humanity's sake, I hope he does.

******

Apparently, some guys with deep pockets didn't want to miss the gold train over the weekend, so they bought just in case.

Gold: the uninvited guest at the investment table. "Guess who's coming to dinner?" "Oh no! How very gauche! What bad taste! That barbarous relic again! This is REALLY too much!"

Good weekend to all. Interesting week ahead.

Sierra

Cavan Man
(01/03/2003; 21:04:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93366)
Dollar Bill
Your bridge has been built. She is named the EURO; a monetary model for a transitional period dead ahead by my reckoning. Granted, the EURO is imperfect; all fiat currencies are. However, the model allows for a free gold price (of course until changed by government decree). This is an old story but truer today then three years ago because, the NEED, NOW, is real.

Euro leads and dollar follows. Both will survive and gold will shine. 2 cents plain....CM
Chris Powell
(01/03/2003; 21:42:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93367)
Let's make a list for Bill Murphy's agenda
Good grief, Dollar Bill, you want Bill Murphy to devise a replacement for the world financial system? It's not enough that he should expose the fraud on which that system has been built? (As if that job has been completed already.) Well, I'll let him know, if he survives his current assignment. Maybe when he has accomplished both things he can find a cure for cancer.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Black Blade
(01/03/2003; 21:54:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93368)
US drilling activity hits new year slump
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=DriPr&ARTICLE_ID=164968
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Jan. 3 -- US drilling activity slumped into the new year, down 25 rotary rigs to 837 working this week, officials at Baker Hughes Inc. reported Friday. That was down from 883 during the same period a year ago, which was the peak number of active rigs for all of 2002. The biggest loss was in land drilling, down 26 rigs with 702 working this week. Offshore drilling was down 1 unit to 107 in the Gulf of Mexico and 110 for the US as a whole. Drilling in inland waters increased by 2 rigs to 25.


Black Blade: Should these low rig counts continue and NatGas withdrawal from storage continue at the current pace or even accelerate we should see long term tightness in supply. When rig counts were at high levels 2001-2002 we saw only a 2% increase in injection rates. Fortunately we has a crippling recession and warmer than normal weather to save the day. We are constantly told that the US economy is recovering. If that is the case then we should see severe shortages surpassing that of the recent power crisis as the economy fires up. If this winter should be normal or colder than normal we should see the shortage amplified several fold. Ramping up drilling programs will be insufficient to meet rising demand under these conditions. Pray for a deepening of the economic recession and warmer weather this winter or else be ready for much higher NatGas/electricity prices. Scratch one "economic recovery". It should get quite "interesting".
sector
(01/03/2003; 22:07:59 MDT - Msg ID: 93369)
Go for your gun....Mr. "Dollar" Bill
Let's see your best shot big guy...come on show us those big knobby, four-wheel tires!...so far all we've seen is a wimpy little trader's rant about Bill Murphy and GATA.

Let's play three guesses who the mystery "Dollar Bill" man really is:


#1 Wild "Bill" Harrison [JPM] in drag. Screaming mad and taking it to the SEC because GATA is correct about their ball-and-chain-like gold derivatives.

#2 Gumby's side-kick. Also a flat small guy and made of clay to boot!

#3 "Billy" Bob Rubin rejoicing at today's "Acquittal" by the Senate Select Committee for Transparent Leniency for Former Treasury Secretaries.
Black Blade
(01/03/2003; 22:16:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93370)
U.S. spot resids extend gains on cold front, crude
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030103/markets_energy_resids_1.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Spot U.S. residual fuels posted fresh gains Friday, riding a bullish wave kicked up by forecasts of a deep freeze next week on the East Coast and deepening concern over the Venezuelan oil workers strike. "The whole energy complex is moving higher and resid is getting swept up in it, especially down in the Gulf where they are starting to face some real supply concerns because of the Venezuelan situation," said one trader. "We heard 3.0 percent (sulphur) offered at $29.00 at the Gulf, which puts it on a par with 1.0 percent. That indicates to me they've reevaluated their supply situation and are starting to get a little desperate," said one trader. Traders said a big blue zone over the East Coast -- denoting below-normal temperatures in the region -- on the National Weather Service's Jan. 9-13 forecast was also broadcasting a strongly bullish signal to the New York Harbor market. Meteorologists predicted Friday that the cold front sweeping next week from Texas to Maine would likely produce the coldest weather seen so far this winter, giving a major boost to heating demand and power generation.

Black Blade: I have been pointing out that we would likely revisit the energy crisis before the last one nailed California. The coming crisis will make the last one a not so distant fond memory by comparison. Energy companies have no plans for significant increases in domestic production this year. The effect will be to shatter the US economy to dust. And as the US goes, so goes the world.

Black Blade
(01/03/2003; 22:22:59 MDT - Msg ID: 93371)
Utilities Ask to Bill for Security Fees
http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=NR20030103140.6_cc740003f09ceb06
Snippit:

PHILADELPHIA (AP) A growing number of utility companies are asking states for permission to add security fees to customers' bills to recover the cost of protecting themselves against possible terrorist attack. A survey conducted last year by the National Regulatory Research Institute and released in November said at least 13 states had been approached by a utility for a rate adjustment related to security costs. Natural gas supplier PG Energy is considering a similar move, spokeswoman Donna M. Gillis said. "We are evaluating all our options to recover costs related to increased expenses we incur due to tightened security," she said. The government, fearing that terrorists might try to sabotage power stations or poison water supplies, has urged utilities to beef up security at significant cost.

Black Blade: Yet another energy cost.

steady
(01/03/2003; 22:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93372)
re lets make a list for murphy usagold.com msg#:93367
Chris Powell where do i sign up to help. go gata!
knotakare
(01/03/2003; 22:58:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93373)
Mr. Bill and Dollar Bill
It must not be any fun being a Bill these days. Perhaps you could be recycled into something more usefull, like possibly gold-coin packaging.

knotakare
Black Blade
(01/03/2003; 23:44:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93374)
United cuts 1,700 jobs, closes U.S. ticketing offices
http://www.boston.com/dailynews/003/economy/United_cuts_1_700_jobs_closes_:.shtml
Snippit:

CHICAGO (AP) United Airlines announced Friday that it is laying off nearly 1,700 white-collar and ticketing employees, or about 2 percent of its work force, and shutting down its U.S. ticket offices as part of cost-cutting in bankruptcy.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" is in growth mode and now that the holidays are over it should pick up steam. No sign of "economic recovery" in sight.

Christian
(01/03/2003; 23:58:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93375)
Real Gold- Paper Gold- Credit Creation Gold
Real Gold= Physical Gold in metal form deliverable. Paper Gold= Legalized counterfeiting by issuing fake warehouse receipts on gold that does not excist as used in fractional reserve banking. Credit Creation Gold= Banking enterprise creates a fictious subsiduary in order to use that subsidiary to loan itself digital money, based on paper gold holdings of the subsidiary created to hold the paper gold. These are called loans, and in our fractional reserve system are used as assets for another loan. That loan again becomes an asset for another loan and this goes on and on and on. This is credit money where the physical money needed to pay back the loan is never created. There is no reason why individuals can not do the same thing and create your own credit and make it payable to yourself. The $350 commodity gold is presently worth $1050 in credit creation to the fractional reserve system. As commodity gold increases in value so will the credit creation value of that commodity gold used as credit creation gold. Before this new year is out Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates as fast if not faster as he lowered them because a rising gold price makes possible more credit creation on top of an already overextented credit system. Greenspan is a gold bug in his heart but his job requires him to defend the dollar. To defend the dollar he will be forced to raise rates. Right now he is making the biggest mistake in his life. The credit machine is in overdrive and the physical paper and coin supply of money is dropping against the needed supply needed to pay the principal and interest cost to make the loan payments. We are headed for a depression of far worse then the 1930's. Before spring is here banks will be forced by the FED to confiscate your savings and turn them into long term government obligations which you will be alloed to borrow against. You can borrow against your own deposits instead of taking them out.
Chris Powell
(01/04/2003; 00:02:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93376)
Steady, you can join GATA by sending an email here:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Black Blade
(01/04/2003; 00:14:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93377)
Bring Back The Draft?

Democrat congressman Charlie Rangel (D-NY) is stumping to bring back the military draft. He claims he will introduce a bill to congress next week. When asked if the volunteer army was not sufficient, Charlie said "but they're not patriots". I damn near fell off my chair. As I have said repeatedly in the past, politicians may be bipedal hominids but they are only about as intelligent as primates.

- Black Blade
The Invisible Hand
(01/04/2003; 00:17:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93378)
GWB, Saddam, JP Morgan/Chase and John Galt

Not long ago, GWB was saying: "Saddam must prove that he has no WMD, otherwise we'll attack his people"
Apparently realizing that the proof of a negative fact is a legal impossibility, GWB is now saying: "Saddam must prove he has destroyed the WMD he had once upon a time" (At the time of the 1991 Gulf War? No, then he had only Kuwait, like he (GWB) now has the land of the Indian forefathers.)

JP Morgan/Chase is now saying: "The rumors that we have problems in the gold derivatives market are untrue."
Kind of reminds me of Ayn Rand saying something Atlas Shrugged about information by denial: "It is not true that people (industrialists) have vanished (to Galt's Gulch)" Don't worry, as Ayn Rand has demonstrated, the people using such arguments are not the ones to survive for long. I wonder what they'll say tomorrow or next week when the GATA reply concerning the origin of the JP Morgan/Chase "rumors" will be all over the press.
physicalman
(01/04/2003; 01:15:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93379)
black blade
Just wanted to thank you personally for all the news and links that you provide. I don't care if your warm, fuzzy or scathing, i beleive your honest. Sometimes that can run the gauntlet of definition. I wanted to ask you about a decent NG stock (one with low debt and good upside potential for higher prices) Any links or research would be apprec.
Black Blade
(01/04/2003; 01:19:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93380)
Britain to Send 20,000 Troops to Gulf
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=MMQHQFSYCKCJKCRBAEZSFFA?type=worldNews&storyID=1989899
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain is to send more than 20,000 troops to the Gulf and mobilize 7,000 reservists next week in preparation for war against Iraq, The Daily Telegraph said Saturday. It said defense chiefs will brief Prime Minister Tony Blair on his return from holiday about plans for a mass deployment led by the aircraft carrier Ark Royal. Blair is then expected to announce the deployment in a statement to parliament.

Black Blade: Edging closer to war.

Goldrush
(01/04/2003; 01:29:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93381)
Corp lawyers may be required to report securities fraud
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhXdshUIU0VDJ3MgWashington, Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- A federal proposal to make corporate lawyers report suspicions of securities fraud may discourage companies from seeking legal advice and violate client confidentiality, according to comment letters from hundreds of critics of the plan.

The Securities and Exchange Commission's rule proposal drew opposition from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Charles Schwab Corp., Fidelity Investments and the European Union as well as law firms, state judges and corporate executives.

The SEC plan ``could trigger profound changes in the relationship between companies and their legal counsel,'' Pfizer Inc. Chairman Henry McKinnell wrote in a letter from the Business Roundtable, a group of 145 chief executive officers at the largest public companies in the U.S. ``The proposal could deter officers, directors and employees from seeking advice from counsel on sensitive matters.''

The core of the SEC proposal, issued for public comment in November, was mandated by a new law responding to scandals at Enron Corp., Tyco International Ltd. and other companies where lawyers were accused of contributing to accounting irregularities.
Topaz
(01/04/2003; 01:45:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93382)
Rand....a Gold backed currency?
With time on my hands over the w-end I thought I might look further into my supposition that Hedge instruments may ALL be Rand denominated...
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=XAU&t=ZAR&a=1&c=2
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=USD&t=ZAR&a=1&c=2
Around Xmas '01 the Rand staged a stunning reversal vis US$ and continues unabated...the only thing of substance Gold-wise these past 12 Mth's was the Minerals Bill transferring Mineral Rights to the State.
Those who follow Gold will recall Mbeki's Au related visit to Europe a couple of Yr's ago...he went angry...and came home smiling. At the time it signalled to me that something was afoot in SA and I'm now convinced it is related to this reversal.

Megahedger Anglogolds stellar performance of late (against a rising US$ PoG) and the cavalier attitude displayed by most Miners to this recent uptick is further evidence that the game has changed.
If any SA posters/lurkers can identify any other explanation for the reversal in ZAR I'd appreciate the input.
TIA.
Goldrush
(01/04/2003; 01:53:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93383)
Real objective of war not Iraq but Saudi Arabia?
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EA04Ak02.htmlRiyadh: Linchpin to a new religious order

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - With a constant increase in the deployment of US forces in the Persian Gulf , the war against Iraq looks set for February. However, the paradigms of the military build-up so far suggest that the goal of the West in the Gulf region is by no means limited to the borders of Iraq. Indeed, the concentration of forces is also well suited to undermining the resurgent fundamentalist branches of Islam and their bases in the Muslim world.

The fact is, whether or not the US overthrows Saddam Hussein, its armed forces will remain face to face with the country at the ideological center of fundamentalist Islam. That country is not Iraq; it is Saudi Arabia. And it is this divide - between Western-style democracy and Saudi-style Wahhabi Islam - that remains at the heart of the coming conflict. The majority of Saudi citizens are Sunni Muslims predominantly adhering to the strict interpretation of Islam taught by the Salafi or Wahhabi school that is the official state religion.

At present, US troops and bases are spread across the Middle East from Oman to Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the continuous deployment of US forces in the Persian Gulf has virtually established de facto US hegemony over the region. With this force, the US has not only ensured a successful strike in case of a war in Iraq, but it has also severely damaged the prospects and attractions of those Islamist ideologies that have emerged as its natural rival.

"There is a deep realization among the US policy makers that in fact there are two concepts of Islam that prevail in the Muslim world. One emerged from Najad [Saudi Arabia], and the other very recently when the Turks ruled an Ottoman empire stretching from Turkey to Morocco," a US diplomat said recently. "The Islam that emerged from the deserts of Najad, called the Salafi branch of Islam, purely finds its sources in the holy book [Koran] and the teachings of Prophet [Sunnah]. The concept of Islam that evolved during the days of Turkish rule are also based on Koran and Sunnah, but instead of taking direct instructions from the book and the teachings, this concept relies on the interpretations of different scholars and Islamic jurists. The Islamic concepts which emerged from the deserts of Najad have always been extremist, whereas the concepts that evolved during Turkish empire are very moderate."



There is no geographical divide between the two concepts, both exist in all Muslim societies. Islamist organizations such as al-Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab world, the Jamaat-i-Islami in Pakistan, Bangladesh and India, the Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan, the Jamaat-i-Islami Afghanistan, the Islamic political parties of Indonesia, Malaysia and Algeria, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front in the Philippines, Hamas in Palestine, Chechen fighters etc - all belong to the Salafi branch and all are, or have been, the recipients of Saudi aid in one form or another. It is a fact that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been the vanguard of this Salafi branch of Islam.

"Interestingly, in societies where these groups exist, there are other Islamic groups which do not follow Salafism, but instead believe in Sufism, an interpretation of Islamic scholarship in light of the Koran and Sunnah which teaches not quarrel but love. This concept evolved during Turkish rule," the diplomat says.
_____________
Good read. Maybe Iraq has to be taken first. The ultimate objective
is to change Saudi Arabia->the world wide sponsor of fundamentalist Islam. Got Gold?
Topaz
(01/04/2003; 02:04:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93384)
...further,
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=XAU&t=USD&a=1&c=2...curiously, that old US$290 Maginot Line was broken shortly thereafter (Jan '02) and hasn't looked back since.
Maybe nothing in it as the Rand has long been seen as the Gold proxy but it sure seems odd.
If this supposition proves to be the case, the upside threat to PoG is reduced markedly.
Black Blade
(01/04/2003; 03:02:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93385)
Re: physicalman
http://www.bullsector.com/oil.html
Sorry but I don't give recommendations on stocks. But the link above may give you a good starting point for researching petroleum sector companies (oil, gas, utes, pipelines, services, etc.). You will have to do your own due dilligence though. It will link you to charts, profiles, earnings statements, news, etc. You have to be careful as with all stock investing there are both good and mot so good companies. Good luck!

- Black Blade
Belgian
(01/04/2003; 03:38:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93386)
The 6 $ per ounce Gold-Movers.....?
For quite some years now, there is the recurrent *surprise* move in POG with the same 6 dollars per ounce !? Kind of a specific foothprint. I strongly suspect this is a Physical Gold Accumulator ...a power-house !
I am not in the capacity to analyse this fenomenon, technically, into further detail. Maybe a suggestion for a smartie out there ? How many of these super-mini 6$ gaps did we have since 1996 ? And under what circumstances were they produced ? FWIW !

Will oil move for the euro-currency, once 360$/oz breaks ???
I have that funny feeling that the present circumstances are favorable ?
Belgian
(01/04/2003; 04:15:24 MDT - Msg ID: 93387)
@ Topaz # 93382
My 2 cents on South Afrika (SA) : SA is wanted under the Euroland umbrella ! Gold for euro ! The Golden euro for oil ! The rand has been managed to let S-African goldmining remain profitable and not disrupt, abruptly, new production-minima. Rand-strengthening is an indication that POG will most probably keep on rising. Euroland's underground Gold is stored in the South African Golden Arch holding another 100 years of Gold.
The euro wants to establish a Free Physical Gold Market.
Bringing SA under the euro-umbrella for more trade than already existing...needs a currency with euro-allures !

Study some of the 300 years of SA history and some light will shine as to where things might possibly lead.

Nice weekend to you downunder.
Pippin
(01/04/2003; 04:24:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93388)
R Powell - Elliott Waves - deflation
<>

That's the point. As deflation/inflation are related to money supply, a credit crunch would provoke a strong decrease of the money aggregates - hence provoking deflation. This could be the scenario.
Question now seems to be : are we facing such a scenario?

@RPowell, Topaz and Sector: thanks for not letting a newbie alone :-)
Topaz
(01/04/2003; 04:41:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93389)
Hey Belgian...
...always good to see your handle.
Look at that Rand smoke! A 50% gain in 12 Mth's eeeha! Your points are taken Sir.
You've got to feel for poor old GWB of late, one minute he's whacking Saddam, next he's got NK to contend with, then the economic stimulus package....you feel like screaming "give the guy a break...it's Christmas". Hope he doesn't crack under the pressure.

A pleasant weekend to you too.
Black Blade
(01/04/2003; 05:06:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93390)
Venezuela: Interventions 'r' US
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/123102_ven_r_us.htmlVenezuela: Interventions 'r' US

by Dale Allen Pfeiffer, FTW Contributing Editor for Energy

[Ed. Note: Remember the cardinal rule: Since the Second World War oil prices spikes have invariably led to recession. Recessions are a way of curbing demand for oil. Unemployed people buy less gasoline. And recessions never hurt the rich; only the middle classes and the poor. - MCR]

[� Copyright, 2002, From The Wilderness Publications, www.fromthewilderness.com. All rights reserved.
May be copied, distributed or posted on the Internet for non-profit purposes only.]

Dec. 30, 2002, 15:00 PST (FTW) -- Who is the United States' number one opponent in its quest for imperialism? Forget about Osama Bin Laden, George Dubya certainly has. And don't fret about Saddam Hussein, he is simply an excuse for intervention. Never mind looking down the road to see when Russia or China will step into the fray. Our no. 1 opposition is a business cartel with the power to strangle the U.S. economically. As global oil production begins to decline, OPEC could become the most powerful organization on the planet, providing that George Dubya Bush does not smash it first.

Taking over Iraq and placing the Saudi oil fields under U.S. protection would break OPEC and establish the U.S. as the premier energy broker in the declining days of oil. And the Bush Administration has been very eager to do just this, though it is attempting to keep the international community appeased while making this power play. Now, however, the Iraq invasion is likely to be delayed until we have reined in another OPEC member much closer to home.

The oil industry in Venezuela has been idled by its upper management, as part of a supposed general strike intended to topple the Chavez government. This is a strike of the rich, and the vast majority of Venezuelans are not supporting it. (1) The strike is a failure in every other respect but for the critical shutting down of oil exports. In this crucial industry, which provides most of Venezuela's wealth, the lockout has cut oil exports to a trickle.

Venezuela is the fifth biggest oil producer in the world, and is the third largest supplier to the U.S., exporting oil to this country at the rate of 1.5 million bpd. (2) Venezuela's oil production has dropped from just under 3 million bpd to barely more than 825,000 bpd. Little more than one month ago Venezuela was supplying one out of every ten barrels of oil that the U.S. consumed. (3) Now the country is having troubles just meeting its own oil demands. In fact, Venezuela has resorted to the short term importation of refined gasoline to keep its economy moving.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has called for the military to intervene in the oil lock out, echoing President Reagan's actions in the air traffic controllers' strike. And the military has acted to take control of a few of the idled tankers. But production and shipping are still down to a trickle of what they once were. The Supreme Court issued a temporary ruling ordering the striking employees back to work, but production remains stifled as oil executives continue their defiance. (4)

President Chavez will have to end this strike soon and bring production back to normal levels, and do so without giving the U.S. cause to intervene. The longer this strike goes on, the longer it will take to get production back in order once the strike has ended.

The U.S.

The Venezuelan strike has already sent up oil prices. In the U.S., oil has already gone to over $32 per barrel, with prices rising at the pump as a result. (5) If the strike continues, oil prices will continue to climb.

Look for the price climb to be led by Citgo Petroleum Corporation, which is owned by a subsidiary of Venezuelan PDVSA. Citgo is buying crude on the open market, but their refineries are geared for the heavy Venezuelan crude, and their production is being affected by the strike. Many other Gulf Coast refiners are also feeling the loss. (6)

Already faced with possible natural gas price spikes if this is a cold winter, we are also going to see the price of gasoline rise. Either one could be fatal for our ailing economy.

While Dubya doesn't seem too concerned about the U.S. economy, the oil strike in Venezuela could upset his plans for Iraq. Former Venezuelan energy minister Calderon Berti said that if both the Venezuelan and Iraqi oil supplies were cut off, oil prices would soar to over $40 per barrel. (7) Before Dubya can attack Iraq, he needs to secure the Venezuelan oil supply.

COUP

For this reason, the U.S. may sponsor a coup in Venezuela within the next month or so. And this is what the strikers want. Their goal is to disrupt Venezuela's economy until the military has to intervene against President Chavez. This strike was choreographed by experienced coup plotters in the U.S. The unions behind the strike, and the corporate media who have lied about it are financially tied to the National Endowment for Democracy, which is a cover for CIA financing. (8)

Otto Reich of the State Department and Elliott Abrams of the National Security Council are overseeing the efforts to install a more compliant regime in Caracas. Both men are veterans of the contra war against Nicaragua. It is their plan to destabilize the country and then aid a military coup. They had hoped to pull off this coup months ago, but had not reckoned on Chavez's popularity with the vast majority of the population. Since then, they have been trying to erode that popularity while attempting to turn the military against Chavez.

Now that their plans have come to impede the invasion of Iraq and threaten the U.S. economy, Abrams and Reich will be urged to either bring their plans to fruition or allow somebody else to broker a settlement with Chavez. And there are other urgent deadlines in imposing a diplomatic junta on Venezuela. Jan. 1, Brazil will inaugurate Lula da Silva as president, and ten days later Ecuador will inaugurate Colonel Lucio Guti�rrez. These men will provide a left-leaning block that could act in opposition to Washington's plans for the region. And perhaps most importantly, the Hydrogen Law will take effect on Jan. 1, giving Chavez the tools he needs to reform the state-owned oil industry. (9) The Hydrogen Law is a piece of Venezuelan legislation which will socialize more of the profits of the oil business and keep them in Venezuela for the benefit of the Venezuelan people. This is perhaps the single most important issue for Chavez's opponents both at home and abroad.

For all of these reasons, for the U.S. economy, and for the invasion of Iraq, Washington is going to seek a quick resolution to the Venezuelan situation.

OPEC

OPEC may actually step in to help lower oil prices, should the current situation go on for too long. To extract the maximum profit without putting too much stress upon the world economy, OPEC has a target range for oil prices of between $22 and $28 a barrel. Below that price, OPEC members lose their profits, and above that price, the market begins to dry up. Within OPEC there is an agreement to step up production if the price of oil stays above $28 per barrel for 20 consecutive days. (10) Let us not forget, however, that while it only takes five days for a shipment of Venezuelan crude to reach the U.S., it takes five weeks for a shipment of Middle East crude to reach the U.S. Any relief from the Middle East will be delayed by over a month.

And there are those who wonder if OPEC has the spare capacity to cover Venezuela's 3 million bpd. Virtually all OPEC countries are currently pumping in excess of their quotas. However, the current oil production is barely enough to stabilize the market. (11) This question of spare capacity will become increasingly important in the years ahead. The amount of oil in the ground does not matter if you are pumping as much as you possibly can through all of the wells in operation.

Beyond the question of production capacity, is it in OPEC's best interest to aid the U.S. in the military domination of OPEC member states? It must be obvious to members of the cartel that the U.S. seeks to undermine their power and take over control of the planets remaining hydrocarbon deposits.

How can OPEC stand aside and do nothing while the U.S. stages coups in Venezuela, prepares to invade Iraq, and vilifies Saudi Arabia while eyeing that country's oil deposits? Certainly, the economic weapon which OPEC wields is a two-edged sword, but if you are fighting a war, then you must expect to make sacrifices. However, before OPEC will become a fighting machine, it needs a leader who can bring all of the member nations to see that they are in fact at war with the United States. And that will be a tough chore.

Perhaps OPEC will wake up in time. But it is just possible that the U.S. could be in control of a major portion of the world's remaining oil supplies when OPEC finally does wake up.

OUTLOOK

If the U.S. can back a successful coup in Venezuela and take Iraq quickly, Washington will be in a very powerful position and will rule a global empire for some time to come. And this prospect seems quite imminent to those who are calling the shots in Washington.

On the other hand, if operations become bogged down in either Venezuela or Iraq, the result could very well be the ruination of U.S. dreams of global imperialism. In Venezuela, if Chavez retains the backing of a major segment of the population and the military, then we could see a bloody civil war, which could disrupt oil supplies for some time to come. The situation could become quite ugly if U.S. intervention led to collaboration between Pro-Chavez forces and Colombian rebels. We could easily find ourselves in a regional conflict that could make Vietnam look like a Sunday picnic.

Likewise, if Saddam Hussein prepares his nation for urban guerrilla fighting, then we could find ourselves fighting a war of attrition in the Middle East. In this case, the extended warfare in oil producing regions could precipitate a global economic meltdown, for which the U.S. would be entirely responsible.

For the moment, keep your eye on Venezuela. The situation there must be resolved before Bush invades Iraq. President Chavez is an amazing man, and with the full support of the people, he has thwarted several attempts to unseat him, just in this past year alone. He has also won six elections in the last four years. Hugo Chavez may retain his presidency long enough to see George W. Bush lose his.

ENDNOTES:

1. Chronology of the Strike that Wasn't, Al Giordano. Dec. 22, 2002; Issue #26, Narconews, http://www.narconews.com/Issue26/article571.html

2. PDVSA Strike to Endanger Chavez, Raise U.S. Gas Prices. Dec. 6, 2002; Stratfor.com. Stratfor http://www.stratfor.biz/Story.neo?storyId=207976

3. DJ. ENERGY MATTERS: OPEC Rides High As Chavez Sits Tight, David Byrd. Dec. 18, 2002; Dow Jones Newswires Column. http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2002121800352r0992&SA=Latest%20News

4. Venezuela Oil Strike Continues Despite Ruling. Dec. 20, 2002; Reuters. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A16998-2002Dec20.html

5. Venezuelan Strike Lifts Oil Prices. Dec. 16, 2002; BBC. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2581667.stm

6. Impact of Venezuelan Oil Strikes beginning to Flow into Houston, Monica Perin. Dec. 13, 2002; Houston Business Journal. http://houston.bizjournals.com/houston/stories/2002/12/16/story7.html

7. Washington Maneuvers Toward Venezuelan Coup, Bill Vann. Dec. 19, 2002. http://www.wsws.org/articles/2002/dec2002/vene-d19.shtml

8. Venezuela: Is the CIA preparing another coup?, Bill Vann. Dec. 11, 2002. http://www.wsws.org/articles/2002/dec2002/vene-d11.shtml

9. White House Venezuela Error Backfires, Al Giordano. Dec. 16, 2002; Narconews. http://www.narconews.com/Issue26/article565.html

10. OPEC foreshadows action to lower oil prices. Dec. 23, 2002. http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/12/22/1040510962248.html

11. U.S. seems ready to undermine world economy and political system. Nov. 13, 2002; Vol. 7, Issue 22. http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/ntn24669.htm


Black Blade: I don't entirely agree, but it is an interesting article nonetheless. Without "cheap energy" the economy comes to a screeching halt. So war with Iraq and possible intervention in Venezuela are likely.
Topaz
(01/04/2003; 05:11:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93391)
Pippin
Jump right in Sir/M'am the waters are fine.
While the bulk of opinion is calling for an inflationary uptrend, there are a few who gather here who see a deflationary collapse as the likely outcome.
The point has been debated ad infinitum by wiser minds than mine but FWIW I'm in the latter camp.
A DIS-inflationary trend (as we've been in for 10 odd years)will not be reversed easily...witness Japan. A DE-flationary "event" ie: Dash for Cash, double digit T'Bond yields, Gold Bullion, BULLION rocketing upward, Gold PAPER @ $200, will be the result if they can't...or won't succeed.
Usul
(01/04/2003; 06:49:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93392)
Gold soars past US$350 an ounce
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?id={A9736EA8-A40C-4633-8CF0-62BAF0941C96}"Market observers said the weak U.S. dollar, combined with military tensions in the Middle East and Asia, have made investors seek out the safe haven investment..."
Usul
(01/04/2003; 06:58:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93393)
Four men rob car laden with gold and jewellery
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2003/1/4/nation/jbgold&sec=nationSuch a lot of fuss over a barbaric relic!
Usul
(01/04/2003; 06:59:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93394)
US dollar faces year of living dangerously
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,630-531381,00.html"What are the chances of a dollar crash, and how much damage would one cause?"
Usul
(01/04/2003; 07:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93395)
Blodget gets Wells Notice
http://www.nypost.com/business/52493.htm"Regulators are preparing to drop the ax on former Merrill Lynch analyst Henry Blodget for helping inflate the Internet bubble with his misleading plugs..."
Cytek
(01/04/2003; 07:40:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93396)
Schaeffer Research 2003 Predictions
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/sentiment/observations.asp?ID=6851Conclusion

I do not rule out an extension of the rally that began on the first trading day of the year through the end of January. If this rally occurs, it is likely to be a major fake-out that will result in an avalanche of money flowing into equities at just the wrong time.

I expect the bulk of the damage to have occurred by mid-year or shortly thereafter, with a potential Dow low in the 5800-6000 area.

I look for a rally beginning in the second half of the year that could take the Dow back above 8000, but only if the Dow first takes out the October 2002 lows and trades down to at least 6500.

I see Nasdaq and the techs as being the least vulnerable to a first-half slide and the Nasdaq potentially posting a gain of up to 50 percent for 2003. I am most bullish on the small- and mid-cap techs � the "single-digit midgets."

I see the biggest cap names in the Dow and the S&P as being most vulnerable to major declines. Many of these stocks have attracted "safe haven" money due to their large capitalizations and liquidity and the illusion of safety. But I see these names as being "first out" of institutional portfolios on the next market leg down. These include Pfizer (PFE), 3M (MMM), Procter & Gamble (PG), Citigroup (C) and General Electric (GE).

Overall, 2003 is likely to be a very tough year for heretofore "safe" or "quality" assets � mega-cap stocks, the dollar, and bonds. I suggest "thinking speculatively" � not with all your capital but with a portion of your funds � by investing in low-priced tech stocks and gold stocks.

I continue to believe that all investors should have at least 10 percent of their portfolios in precious metals stocks. Gold has broken out to the upside technically and will be the beneficiary of the Fed's "reflation" push and potential dollar weakness. And investor enthusiasm on gold remains muted, with gold funds accounting for a smaller than average percentage of sector fund assets.
silvercollector
(01/04/2003; 07:51:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93397)
Dollar Bill
Your 93358 is a terrible post, why are you attacking Mr. Murphy? He's on our side remember.

You've got yourself into a toilet bowl big time.

Check my handle, it has changed in the last year. In 1999 I collected gold going into Y2K and then I switched to silver in 2000 & 2001. I bought into the "silver is consumed" line of thinking, there's less "above ground" silver than gold.

I was the big time 'Silvercollector'. About a year and a half ago I switched back to gold, sure I still have my stash of physical silver but I add no more.

Both silver and gold SHOULD be going up but if you've noticed silver is still 'held' below $5. Are you on a rant because you held silver during the recent gold breakout?

Rule #1 is to absolve yourself of emotion.

I collect gold in case of worldly worries.
I collect silver in case I am wrong on gold.
I collect guns in case I am wrong on both.

I WILL win in any scenario. Position yourself so you may win as well. Look at BB; gold, silver, energy, guns, food, self-sufficient, forward-looking. How can he lose?
Christian
(01/04/2003; 08:16:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93398)
(No Subject)
The FED can not monetize America's bad debts. The FED can buy the bad debt and just own it. This reminds me of a program for farm debt reduction a number of years ago. Farmers were allowed to write down 15% of their debt obligations to the bank. To qualify you had to be in debt over your head and still be in operation. Banks used the program to shift their bad farm loans to then the Farmers Home Administration. Most of those farmers never recovered and the then Farmers Home Administration ended up selling those farms at less then half of outstanding debt. I will always remember the Nelson Farm with $300,000 debt sold for $58,000. Many credit created $250,000 homes with credit created debt of $200,000 are worth $50,000 cash. As long as banks can continually "loan themselves digital money, based on a finiti quantity of paper gold (legalized gold counterfeiting by issuing fake warehouse receipts on gold that does not exist) and use that money to create fractionalized loans, which then itself becomes becomes an another asset for another loan, you create debt without increasing the money supply to pay the principal or interest. In 1997 it took 23% of profits to pay interest on loans and in 2002 it took 100%. And this is at a time when interest rates were going down. The real paper, coin, checkbook money supply is droping like a rock and credit debt creation is goin up like a rocket. Paying down old debt with new debt is not debt reduction. A home owner can exchange his equity in the home for worthless dollars but he can not take worthless dollars and turn it into home equity. The same applies with gold. You can sell your gold for worthless dollars, but it will take a lot more worthless dollars to buy the same gold back.
Hipplebeck
(01/04/2003; 08:41:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93399)
two things
One, of course the dow will go up to 36,000.
When that happens a loaf of bread will cost about $40
Two, I have heard many times that the stock market has historicslly outperformed other investments. Now, when a particular corporation goes down to where it is booted off the exchange, and another corporation whose stock is climbing replaces it, is that taken into consideration when these claims are made? It is my contention that of course the index outperforms, but if you include all the companies that have been booted off the index, you show a whole different picture.
steady
(01/04/2003; 08:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93400)
the gold bull.
http://www.sharelynx.net/goldbull.gifsome say there is a gold bull some say there is a gold bear i know there is a baby gold bull thats going to mature nicely. have a look see for yourself. when he gets older and fills out ill take another picture of him and post it.
sector
(01/04/2003; 09:14:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93401)
Company heads bleak on future, survey shows
Yomiuri Shimbun
The majority of senior executives of 30 major companies polled feel cautious about whether the economy will improve in fiscal 2003 and believe the deflationary spiral will continue, according to findings of a Yomiuri Shimbun survey.

According to the annual survey on the economy at the beginning of the year, nine executives believed that as a result of the acceleration of bad-loan disposal and uncertainties over the U.S. economy, economic recovery will be slow.

Another nine managers forecast that the economy will continue to stall, and six predicted that the economy will recede gradually. Only five managers were optimistic, saying the economy will rebound gradually. Most officials forecast that the economy will only pick up only at a mild pace, or worsen.

Most managers projected that economic growth in real terms will be about 0.5 percent, confirming the bleak outlook.

Only a handful of managers forecast that economic growth in real terms will be higher than the 0.6 percent projected by the government.

All executives predicted the consumer price index growth rate will fall below the zero percent mark, indicating they share a common view that deflationary pressure will continue.

Eight managers, the largest single number of the group, said the economy will extricate itself from the deflationary phase in fiscal 2005, followed by six who said fiscal 2004 and four who predicted fiscal 2006.

To fight deflation, most called on the government to carry out sound policies, such as structural reforms combined with the easing of the monetary policy.

Reflecting the bleak economic outlook, most managers forecast the unemployment rate will stay at 5.5 percent, which was last year's average jobless rate.

However, they also said that the unemployment rate in a single month will reach 6 percent.
+++++++++++++++++++++++

Japanese experts agree--2003 won't be a party.

Perhaps they should FAX CNBC's crack "Financial" reporters with the news?
Pippin
(01/04/2003; 09:30:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93402)
Topaz
<>

Thanks. A bit tricky here. If I clearly understand, the interest rates would jump because people would prefer to stay cash. Correct ? If correct, this would be a case where deflation (provoked by the credit crunch mentionned before) would go along with high rates, which is something I never heard of as a total newbie :-)
Another interesting point is that you see the gold bullion rocketing upward and Gold @ 200: does this mean that we would see a "two gears" gold, two categories of gold assets ? How can "gold papers" not be linked to gold in a 1:1 relationship ?
Sorry if I mix everything up.
Hipplebeck
(01/04/2003; 09:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93403)
Belgian
The Euro is only a better currency than the dollar because the dollar is at the end of it's timeline, and the Euro is just beginning on it's timeline. They are both trash paper.
Neither one is backed by gold.
Gold is money.
Not the dollar, and not the Euro.
It is exciting to watch a paper currency in it's initial phase of destruction, but replacing it with a "new and improved" model is just delaying the true day of reckoning.
Without real gold backing, any paper, including the Euro will meet it's fate.
mikal
(01/04/2003; 10:00:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93404)
@Belgium
Thank you for your thought provoking and sincere insights. It is true that much of what everyone takes for granted as fact these days has been previewed by yourself. And I know that the euro is at least as significant as you have modestly demonstrated in your many explorations and anecdotes of money, both for everyday people and for investors, corporations and governments. Your diligent updates on new developments are relevent to everyone, at times invaluable.
CoBra(too)
(01/04/2003; 10:02:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93405)
Bleak Outlook for the Economy ...
Bursting Bubbles are hardly cured by more of the same policies - Sir Allan has but a few arrows left in his fraudulent quiver.

Re. Sector's gloomy CEO Poll ...

The gloomy outlook of this poll cites some interesting points. Ranging from ongoing deflation, acceleration of bad loan disposal - would repudiation be in order? - and economic growth of 0.5% in real terms.

Real terms usually means what's left after inflation - what does it mean in a deflationary environment? More so, what does it mean in a rapid depreciation of the US Dollar Reserve Currency. Which again begats the question - against what? The �, a basket of fiat currencies or against the only real barometer of value - GOLD?

Seems to me, that the enormous debt the $ has built up in- and externally will have to be repudiated at an yet historically unprecedented rate. Competitive devaluations will spiral the "purchasing power" of all FIAT PAPER to Nirvana.

The only safe haven will once again be GOLD and other hard unencumbered assets.

cb2

PS: MK - Great show today by your Ski-Team. Bode Miller - in his in-imitable style- won his secong giant slalom and Eric Shlopy wasn't that far behind. Bode's also leading in the seasons world cup - no wonder, he's now residing in Tyrol most of the time, not to mention training with our boyz!
Nice to see the US team doing so well at my favorite sport. And, BTW I've also skied the slopes of Aspen and Snowmass (Anderl Molterer), Vail (Pepi Stiegler) and Telluride (an Austrian RE tycoon, buying up the sunny side some 30 y's back ... I remember buying some lots with a chalet at 50 Grand and selling at 350 G. some y's later).

physicalman
(01/04/2003; 10:27:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93406)
black blade
Thanks!
Rock
(01/04/2003; 10:29:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93407)
Hipplebeck
I liked your analogy how the USD is at the end of its run while the new currency Euro is on the beginning of its run but that both will eventually fail because they are paper currencies. I don't know where I got the idea that the Euro was backed by gold but I guess I was wrong. And if what you say is true regarding the Euro, I concur.

Rock
sourdough
(01/04/2003; 10:41:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93408)
R Powell (01/03/03; 19:37:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 93359)
You are right about Capiello and his "take profits".
He has never mentioned gold and any time it has been mentioned he has literally "snickered" at the word.
It is frustrating to see the way these guys choose their phrasing when they miss the moves and are 100% wrong on their calls. " I would take some profits here".
Make it appear he was positioned, but in reality means nothing. NO CREDIBILITY.
I saw the same thing from one of LOU`S other regulars on another program..
When asked why these top money managers did not call for gold the best investment of the year, he replied:
Yes we should have seen it, that is why one should have the 5 % rule in place.
Oh there a sleazy bunch, trying to make it look like they/he had been following that rule all along.
p.s. I also noticed Lou was talking about gold stocks and the funds that held them being best performers. He did not mention that owning physical was an option that has not done badly. Another tricky comment, since he knows the sheeple fear any kind of stocks right now.
If the program had investors capital and returns as their objective they would have examined the risk/reward of physical gold against holding other investment. potential percentage gains and potential downside.
That program is not geared to investors making money or retaining what they have. Looks more like a promo for the guests to make a market to sell there mistakes into. The greater fool scenario continue to be safe at Lou`s
Lot of "if`s on there last night.
Abbey was a "ifnn" away pretty hard. Nobody asked her what happens to gold ifnn her ifnn is wrong like last year, regardless of the fff ~n cause!


Cavan Man
(01/04/2003; 11:17:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93409)
INCOMING (Fiscal Stimuli)
Treasuries for sale.....treasuries for sale.......Bush Economic Stimulus Could Reach $600B

Saturday January 4, 2003 3:30 PM


WACO, Texas (AP) - President Bush has signed onto key provisions of an economic stimulus package whose price tag could reach $600 billion over a decade, administration officials say.

Aides had previously put the likely 10-year cost at about $300 billion.

Bush's economic growth package probably will include a blend of tax cuts, billions of dollars in aid to financially strapped states and extended unemployment benefits, administration officials said late Friday, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The president signed off on portions of the plan Friday at his ranch in nearby Crawford after returning from a visit with troops at Fort Hood in central Texas.

CoBra(too)
(01/04/2003; 11:22:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93410)
Debt Ceilings? ...
Quote from the "Privateer":

... are mere Potempkin delusions, if at all. The almost unbelievable atrocity to pump up the money aggregates in the US are more than ridiculing the intelligence of its supporters.

***On Tuesday, December 31, the US Treasury posted its "debt to the penny at $US 6,405.7 Billion. It just so happens that the US debt ceiling, signed into law by President Bush exactly six months previously, is $US 6,400 Billion.***

... And what now - a minimum of 300 Billion for economic stimulus, WAT, or against Iraq not counted, Homeland Security and all the other expenditures running amuck - may be just be a drop on the overall and dismal picture ... of a tiger on the tail.

Do you, too believe in the tooth fairy? I do, too ... cb2

Christian
(01/04/2003; 11:22:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93411)
Euro can be backed with 15% gold whenever they want
The Euro can not be backed by gold until the dollar is destroyed. It makes no sense to buy dollar assets with Euro's backed by gold. The Euro is doing what the dollar is doing- paying for imports with a piece of paper that only has worth if it buys something back or invests in country of origination. The Euro framers (owners) are buying gold just like the dollar framers (owners) are. The Euro will win the middle east war because we will win it for them. Take a very good look at who owns the major oil companies. Now take a look at ITERA and what they have purchased lately. ITERA now owns controlling interest in over 37 U.S. oil or gas companies. ITERA is a privatly held company with over 200 companies under its control. Just last month ITERA added a large Iraqi oil field to its holdings. By the way the Enron loot was moved via FED wire to ITERA's Florida office. ITERA holds its large cash reserves in Euro's
Gandalf the White
(01/04/2003; 13:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93412)
Sir Christian
ITERA
Please give me complete identification!!
I really would like to be able to follow your thought!!
With ONLY ITERA, I get five International companies, NONE of the statue of which you speak!!
<;-)
Christian
(01/04/2003; 13:58:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93413)
ITERA
ITERA is a privately owned subsiduary of Gazprom, registered in Jacksonville, Florida and financed by the Carlyle Group and the Osama Bin Laden Family. The Northern Alliance was financed by ITERA. They are in manufacturing, real estate development, consulting, oil and gas production and the main operator of the Central Asian Oil Pipeline Consortium. Like Enron did they do a lot of commodity trading in western countries and a lot of barter trading in their home countries that once was the USSR. ITERA home office in the USSR is Gazprom and in the U.S. is in Jacksonville, Florida. ITERA is not a public company and each of its divisions has its own web site if it has one at all. Most don't. Very secretive corporation but information on the company of many companies can be gotten off the Cyprus web site if you know how to get it. I never could but I did get a lot of information from B.I.S., in Switzerland. It's like getting information from the U.S. Treasury. I could not get in to what I wanted but I asked them to e-mail it to me and they did. I even went to the local town office to use their high powered computer and they could not get in either. ITERA controls at least 200 enterprises in the former USSR. Much of Gazprom operations is connected to ITERA. Luke oil lost a lot of their Iraqi holdings to ITERA. IRAQ will be split up and divided into parts and these parts will then be divided into surrounding countries like Jordan, Kuwait, Turkey etc. Turkey is already moving troops to occupy their part and to keep the Kurds out. The problem is the Kurds--nobody wants them. If the Iraqi leader wants to keep his head and if I was him, I would kiss up to the Kurds. If he had a heart he would resign.
Rock
(01/04/2003; 14:01:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93414)
Christian
Thanks for clearing that up for me.
Sovereign
(01/04/2003; 14:43:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93415)
Who owns the British, French and German Central Banks?
Good day.

According to an official? site, The European Central Bank is "contracted into" (owned?) by the aforementioned central banks. Is it possible to find out who, in turn, owns and really cotrols those central banks?

Thanks in advance for responding.
Christian
(01/04/2003; 14:45:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93416)
ITERA
You may find some outdated information on ITERA by looking up ITERA International Energy Corp. Also some outdated material can be obtained from the ITERA Group NV., ITERA Holding AG that operate in the cities of Aaran, Baden, Zug and Zurich, Switzerland. Mark Reich (Rich) a Bush crony operates (should say oversees) these trading operations. J.P. Morgan/Chase has many of its off balance sheet phony companies in Cyprus. There was an article many years ago where the Swiss government wanted to move these trading companies out of the country. They know the trades have everything to do with control. Cyprus has overtaken Switzerland as a place to park money. But Switzerland has better access to information. Example the English gold auction auctioned off what was once Russia's gold. They never did sell an ounce of their own. But like the Americans the British were coned out of the gold that belonged to the public that now belongs to the owners of the central banksters. Bush is a party to that. Bush and Hitler have a lot in common. Both got to power with deceit, if you are not with them, you are an enemy, and above all might makes right. Hitler got to power with Bush Family money and so the young Bush. Attorney General Ashcroft real name is ____water and his ancestors worked for the ____'s. ____water is spelled a little different in German.
Maverick1
(01/04/2003; 14:52:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93417)
FBI most wanted
I wonder if those "mid-eastern" immigrants that slipped past authorities are here to wreek havoc during the Superbowl? What city is the Superbowl going to be in? Is it an open stadium?
cyberbat
(01/04/2003; 15:33:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93418)
Do it Now!!
As a fellow member of this round table, we all want to ascentuate the positive about gold and silver. However, there may be some in our midst that want to buy more gold and silver but have been stung many times before doing so. If you fall into that category I want you to go to
http:www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/smithf010603.html
and read this column. It represents IMHO all the positive facts why gold and silver will skyrocket!!In my mind it is all about fundamentals that are presented in great detail.Just remember, our brothers and sisters will be suffering this year and we must all lend a helping hand to the sheeple where much pain and suffering will be taking place.
After you have read this piece, I want you to get on the phone and BEG Centennial Precious Metals to sell you all the bullion bars or coins that you can get hold of. Beg, borrow, or whatever to get yourself in position for what Mr. Sinclair describes as "The Storm Watch". Don't wait on a correction; call them now, while you still can get some.
Later on, if the U.S. government goes thru a confiscation phase, we need to be planning lines of communication with others out of this country. I will give them not one ounce of my gold when it happens, but we all will need liquidation methods if we too are to survive, IMHO. I'm not taking any chances with the U.S. or their banking system. Why should I. They have proved that they are not worthy of our respect ot trust. Friends will not know what I'm talking about. You do!!
Now, go act. Get your gold while you still can!!
By the way. I am in no way connected with Centennial Precious Metals but I hold a high regard of trust with them.
Again, don't wait, just do it.
Cyberbat-American by birth, Southern by the grace of God.
Sierra Madre
(01/04/2003; 15:49:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93419)
Maverick1...those five ME types that "slipped through..."

Sir, I question everything I hear or read about through the Media and Press.

Have you heard about "memes"? These are suggestions that are deliberately planted in the collective memory, where they remain until "reactivated".

Thus, there is now a "meme" planted in the US, about some ME types who are in the US with suspicious motives.

If then, TPTB decide on a self-inflicted act of terrorism, with a view to igniting the wished-for war, the public reaction will be instantaneous and decisive: it was "those five ME types who slipped through our borders!"

Presto, there you have the detonator for the next war - no amount of reasoning or investigation will prevent it.

Sierra
Skydog
(01/04/2003; 15:52:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93420)
@Cyberbat
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/headsup/2003/0103.htmAgree with you totally. Follow the link to see what Jim Sinclair is saying about the next move and where he thinks we should be by Monday latest.

As for me, I have a Dodge Ram 3500 one ton backed up and loaded to the axles with physical, miners and June gold futures all three. Don't plan on missing this one!!!

Good luck to all,
Skydog
White Hills
(01/04/2003; 15:53:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93421)
Testing
Testing,,,,,,White Hills
Topaz
(01/04/2003; 15:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93422)
Pippin.
Get's a bit tricky doesn't it?
Monetary/Fiscal policy (contrary to popular belief) are REACTIVE persuit's to contain/control human action.
A deflationary event as aforementioned is best described thus: "why buy today when tomorrow it WILL be cheaper".
If you apply this thought across the full spectrum you'll get the picture.
What will trigger such an event?
Another/FoA (see archives) foresaw a Bullion/Central Bank crisis resulting from a disproportinate Metal/Paper ratio in the system....others identify a decreasing Bond Yield, to the point where the Risk/Reward ratio becomes meaningless, vvvwammo! Cash is King.
The paper/Bullion split will result from (during/after the "event") those holding Paper substitutes realising that that's exactly what they're holding-PAPER- and enmasse will exit the Markets....to convert whatever they can to Cash/Bullion.
Hope this helps.
Old Yeller
(01/04/2003; 15:59:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93423)
Dollar vs Euro,both fiats with the same destiny?

One major difference is trade balance,the Euro trading
area maintains,at present,a slight surplus.If they were
to assume world currency status,they could easily move
into a trade deficit scenario.The USD,if managed correctly,
could have run trade deficits of 150 billion into perpetuity,but they got selfish and greedy.Now they will
pay the price,hopefully before innocent people are
bombed back to the stone age.

It seems the ECB recognizes the dangers of self-motivated
greed and economic arrogance.The euro may be on a time
line too,but a much longer one,IMO.

I often find myself re-reading Dim Wim's speech of
Sept,2000,posted here at USAGOLD(thank you very much),
as well as MK's and FOA's interpretations of it's deeper meanings.Sure,it's ANOTHER fiat,but it's one that will
value it's gold holdings at current prices(in Euros,no less)
and appears to be deeply concerned with stability of the
monetary unit,the implications of corrupt inflations,false
credit expansions and the potential for flagrant abuse of
the privilege as we have seen in the USD example.

We're stuck with fiats now,the euro is simply better,the
premium the "zero" now commands,reflects that reality.




The Invisible Hand
(01/04/2003; 16:05:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93424)
Gold on the bike
http://www.wielerrevue.nl/actueel/meer_nieuws_sep02.htm#sep
Christian mentioned Itera NV. I therefore did a google search looking only in Dutch language webpages. The appended "article" says that Itera, the Russian gaz company, will be in 2003 the sponsor of a Russian/Belgian professional cycling team with a budget of 1.5 million euro. The "article" concludes by saying that the team starts as Trade Team 2 and want to become Trade Team 1 next year. Will they have Itera and/or Trade Team 2 on their shirts, I don't know, but what about their secrecy?. But can you imagine the gold team runner winning the Ronde van Vlaanderen (in April) or the Tour de France (in july)? What more publicity does gold need?
===
Andrei Tchmil komt volgend jaar zo goed als zeker het peloton binnen als manager van een nieuwe Russisch/Belgische profploeg. De onderhandelingen met het Russische gasbedrijf Itera zijn bijna rond. Jef Braekevelt, niet welkom bij Lotto-Domo, en Pjotr Ugrumov worden ploegleiders. Pavel Tonkov, nu nog bij Lampre in dienst, moet de kopman van de Itera-ploeg worden. Dimitri Konychev (Fassa)en het jonge talent Evgeny Petrov (Mapei-TT3) hebben ook al toegezegd bij de ploeg te komen rijden. Met Sergej Gontsjar wordt nog gepraat. De ploeg begint als Trade Team 2 met een budget van ruim anderhalf miljoen euro. De seizoenen daarop wil men graag als Trade Team 1 verder.
Terug ||Top
Topaz
(01/04/2003; 16:18:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93425)
...further (Pippin)
...just to round out this scenario, after the "event" for an interminable period, (given the state of the collective conciouness) Cash will rule, accounts in Banks will be "controlled", Printing Presses will run in overdrive, the worthlessness of Fiat currency will dawn on people and a Hyperinflationary trend will develop.
Not a pretty picture.
Usually it takes a War to distract the Masses in such times (sadly).
Sierra Madre
(01/04/2003; 16:22:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93426)
Beautiful Dreamer, list unto me-e-e...

Here in Sunny Acapulco, the water is 87 F. and the grandsons caught a large sailfish and a good sized mahi-mahi this morning.

A fella who has started a high-class residential area a few miles to the east, with very nice, lovely clean waterfront, is selling 2.4 acre waterfront lots for a modest $1 million dollars.

Let's see: $1 million dollars will buy you 195 pounds of solid .999 gold (2,857 troy ounces). I think this guy is dreaming a big dream and he has to wake up pretty soon.

I tend to convert all prices into ounces. Monomania, if you will. Everything seems so terribly expensive. I don't know if this will work for an economy in general, but for me, I know that when gold is at $20,000/oz. I MAY think of buying this and that. But not if the prospect is $40,000/oz shortly thereafter.

I think this brings us to an important point: to get the world started again - if it ever happens - will require a convincing (I stress convincing) monetary policy in place somewhere, plus a stable political condition. (Let's say, a Jacques Rueff type running the ECB plus a De Gaulle type in Germany, for starters.)

The country or currency bloc that gets these elements in place first, is going to have a head start on the rest of the world.

Sierra



Sovereign
(01/04/2003; 16:23:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93427)
Christian
Good fellow,

Do you know who owns and controls the British, French and German central banks? Since I understand that they are "independent", (read: privately owned and/or controlled) it cannot be "We the [British, French and German] People," etc. Please respond. Thank you.
Belgian
(01/04/2003; 17:13:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93428)
@ Sir Hipplebeck.....about the euro.
Yes Sir, the euro and what it stands for is indeed a very difficult concept to understand, believe and accept, that it is existing. Simply because we "all" (many Eurolanders included) have been dollarized to our very bones for such a long time. We all still wear those "dollar-glases" and ridicule European history, included monetary history . Every day I do receive trainloads of euro-incomprehension and mild scepticism (unbelief). Euro-plans are so fantastic that all unbelievers demand explicite evidence with the utmost im-patience. But as a modest man of the world...I do encounter more and more reliable evidence. Last night I was briefed on China and its evolving stance on the euro, by an objective source.
Very encouraging and "again" in line with what I'm communicating here.

The euro doesn't want to be seen as being "backed" (!!!) by its Euroland Gold exchange reserves. Gold-backing is an outdated notion from the goldstandard era. The euro wants to be the currency that is *** aligned *** with a Free Physical Gold Market !The association of euro with Physical Gold instead of the dollar associated with paper-contract-gold ! Yes, very difficult to grasp. Because it is a completely new concept incompatible with the dollar and very possible with the euro. It is because of the very existance of the euro that Gold is still trading as a paper-contract market with nothing but paper claims. If the euro had been aborted...POG would already have exploded into the thousands of dollars. But Gold is patiently waiting for its new future currency, the euro.

All this circles around the Arabian oil situation, already more than 10 years of age. Recapitulate history of the past 30 years with increasing tensions about oil : 1970-ties oil-crisis. 1980-ties hyperinflation. 1990-ties Gulf war and today's global oil-tensions. Do you really think that there is a military solution to this global growing oil-problem ?
When you think oil...one must think about a currency that is worthy of this oil-wealth. Do oil-producers prefer a debt-dollar currency or a gold-euro currency ? The massive Arabian oil-reserves still prefer everything that is closely Gold-related. The dollar isn't positively Gold-related . The euro is ! Joining the euro-concept, means bringing in Gold as exchange reserve (ECB). Not confiscated Gold but Gold to be traded Physically Free in concert with the currency. Many official statements and actions support evidence that this future Free Physical Gold Market is in preparation.

The US$ is doing exactly the same with its oil-conquest.
This struggle is marching to its climax. A struggle between two competing currencies ($/�) around two wealth-bones (oil/gold). The daily changes in $/� exchange rate is giving the scores.

When The Physical Free Gold Market is understood in relation to the organizing euro-currency...you will change your vieuw on that notion of "Gold-backed". Forget about the dollar-view of "goldstandard". This thing never worked but nevertheless existed for decades ! It will take decades before we might conclude that the euro/gold/oil concept has its flaws or is rightout unworkable. But at present we have no other choice than to do something drastic about the global monetary monstrosity.

I don't believe in the theory that the dollar can take full control of oil and therefore manage enough confidence in the $-reserve-confetti for further global trade. We are watching this all together very consciously, happening/evolving, today. 30 Years of ME (oil) control / dominance is running at its end for many different reasons.
This globe needs increasingly more oil to keep expanding...cheap oil becomes relatively scarce...other oil producers (South America-Russia) are gaining oil-consciousness. The era of the easy ruling oil-oligarchs is getting impossible by the day. The remaining Oil-reserves are going to stand up. The euro has a very close relationship with oil through the 75% of taxes collected on it. The dollar's relation with oil is much different.
Another reason why the euro has the ambition to become the new oil-currency, through Gold.

A rising POG is weakening the dollar and strengthening the euro. That's why oil doesn't want the dollar anymore and the euro will/shall become the oil-currency, attached to Gold (not backed by).

Yes the euro might be defeated for God knows what reason. But as things are evolving now...I can only see euro-succes. The remaining oil reserves will tolerate less and less domination and will without any doubt, finally land nearby Gold in one (currency) way or (physical) another.

Sorry for the lousy-unpleasant English. Goodnight.





Christian
(01/04/2003; 17:29:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93429)
ITERA
ITERA Group is presently Russia's largest privat gas and oil trader. ITERA Group like the Carlyle Group have a lot in common. Both have access to the highest government offices in countries they operate in. Both have offices right next to government offices. Of the 535 members in Congress only 3 have no connection (investments) in Carlyle. Only 5 members that make up the Russian Duma (sp) or whatever it is called have no investments in ITERA. Some indirect ways to find more on ITERA is search - Caspian oil + gas - November, 2001. Pipeline.htm - News Review from ITERA- January 2002. The Bush Family, British Royalty, and the Bin Laden Family together own about 35% of ITERA. The Northern Alliance is now in the drug growing business supplying the U.S. military with lots of dope to haul back to the Chicago Board of Trade to sell as Soybeans. Guess who financially benefits from that operation. Look no further then the very men in the whitehouse. ---____water as some spell it here is Bow-water translatted into German is ____wasser and add man after wasser. Now check out Hitlers cabinet and you find guess who? Ashcroft's real name is Bow-water is a decentant of? Ashcroft is here to protect the dead Constitution, Thanks to the patriot act and the homeland security bill. - Rothchild or whatever his name is one of many who own the Euro Central Banks. Putin family name goes back to?? Bush is 13th in line to the _______ crown. On October 1983 the United States Supreme Court dismissed an appeal for want of a substantial Federal question? "No State shall....make any Things but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts. And what does Congress do?? Elected officials so gutless, and no principal sell gold short.
Leigh
(01/04/2003; 17:42:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93430)
Monetary Policy Needs "Anchor" - Gramlich
Washington (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Gov. Edward Gramlich said on Saturday monetary policy needed an "anchor" or long-term strategy, but he stopped short of joining some of his colleagues who have advocated formal inflation targets at the U.S. central bank.
_____
An "anchor?" Like...gold??
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/04/2003; 17:52:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93431)
$14.95 retail, get yours directly from the author for $5.95
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Mr. Bill
(01/04/2003; 17:53:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93432)
@Belgian msg#: 93428 - Euro
One can always say no. Why do we have to piss away time on the Euro? Just another bogus buck. Why not cut to the chase and go with gold. Of course the boys following the plan might be a little upset. After all they get their jollies in fiat. Not to mention how easy it is to make money when everyone buys into the illusion that there is really something of value being held.

I say, drive a stake through their heart. These vampires deserve no less. Always wanting something for nothing. And giving even less in return. It is time for their time to end.
Black Blade
(01/04/2003; 17:53:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93433)
Gasoline, Heating Oil Output May Be Cut
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=1988401
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. refiners will be forced to significantly reduce their production of gasoline, heating oil and other petroleum products if Venezuela's oil workers strike drops American crude inventories another 8 million barrels, a U.S. government energy agency warned. U.S. oil inventories fell 9.1 million barrels last week to 278.3 million barrels, close to a 26-year low, as striking workers in Venezuela slashed oil shipments to the U.S. market and cut into crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration, which is the Energy Department's independent analytical agency, said U.S. oil inventories are close to what is considers "the lower operational" level of 270 million barrels for refineries. "Without more oil into the system, crude oil inventories are likely to be drawn down even further, until refinery throughputs will have to be significantly curtailed," EIA said in its weekly oil report released on Thursday. "There is little room to draw upon product inventories for any significant amount of time. This would fuel a continued rise in product prices," the agency said.

Black Blade: More critical for the US economy will soon be rising electricity and NatGas costs. With the US gearing up for war it is unlikely we will see the SPR tapped anytime soon. Meanwhile the Venezuelan strike continues and several producing fields have effectively been shutdown and will take several months to recondition these wells for a resumption of production. Some marginal wells will probably never be recovered. It could get very "interesting".

Black Blade
(01/04/2003; 17:55:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93434)
Venezuela Strike Leads to Hoarding as Shortages Mount
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&box=ad_box_all2&tag=energy∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APhWr6BaWVmVuZXp1
Snippit:

Caracas, Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- After waiting in line eight hours to fill his truck's tank at a Caracas gas station, Jose Torrealba put some of the gasoline he bought into plastic jugs and offered to sell it for 10 times what he paid. ``I'll sell half and use the other half myself,'' Torrealba, a tow-truck driver, said before an armed soldier ordered him to move his vehicle. As Venezuela's monthlong national strike has led to shortages of food, drinks and gasoline, Torrealba and others are hawking scarce goods for as much as 20 times their normal price. President Hugo Chavez has refused to allow the hardships to force him to yield to demands by opposition union, business and political leaders to quit or call early elections, and yesterday appealed for international support to help break the strike. ``Chavez is completely underestimating the economic affects of the strike,'' said Vitali Meschoulam, an analyst with political risk consultancy Eurasia Group in New York. ``The economic situation will deteriorate in the next few days and weeks, and that will soften his position.''


Corn flour used to make many traditional Venezuelan dishes is also scarce, prompting many shoppers to stockpile when they can find it. Some stores have begun rationing the staple to conserve their supplies. ``I make my orders as usual, but I don't know if they'll actually arrive,'' said Nelson Marcos, a manager at the Los Campitos supermarket in El Rosal, a Caracas neighborhood. ``There are lots of things I can't keep in stock.'' Soft drinks, beer, flour, meat, and dairy products are among goods that are becoming increasingly difficult to find, said Marcos. That has made shopping a logistical nightmare for shoppers. Carlos Dominguez visited several Caracas supermarkets in two days to stock up on food. ``I'm doing my regular shopping and building a food reserve,'' Dominguez said, as he took four liters of long-life milk from a shelf. ``I'm very worried that if the strike drags on things will get worse.'' Efraen Suzzarini, who runs a small bar in the El Valle neighborhood, says he saw the beer-shortage coming and stockpiled enough beer to last his clientele for a few days. He also scoured nearby towns until he found a wholesaler almost two hours outside of Caracas who would sell him more beer at normal cost. To compensate for the cost of renting a truck to do his own shipments, he's raised beer prices by more than double to 1,400 bolivars a bottle for take-out purchases.


Black Blade: The worst part is a "shortage of beer!!!" As always get out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.


Black Blade
(01/04/2003; 18:06:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93435)
Turkey Backs U.S. Military Deployment
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=540&ncid=736&e=3&u=/ap/20030103/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_us_iraq
Snippit:

ANKARA, Turkey - President Bush is right to send ground forces to the Persian Gulf to pressure Iraq into disarming, but Turkey is wary about hosting a large number of U.S. troops, the foreign minister said Friday. "The United States is our ally but there might be issues on which the interests of allies do not meet," Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis told NTV television. "It would not suit us. Then, Turkey would become a country opening a front against its neighbor." About 50 U.S. warplanes fly regular patrols over northern Iraq from Incirlik air base in southern Turkey, where 1,500 U.S. soldiers are based. Support from Turkey is considered key to any U.S. operation against Iraq. Using Turkish bases for a ground attack would give the United States the ability to attack from both the north and the south, surrounding central Iraq, Saddam Hussein heartland of support. The government earlier said that it would make a decision on a troop deployment after U.N. inspectors checking Iraq for weapons of mass destruction release their report in late January. Still, Yakis said he supported U.S. troop deployment in the Middle East. Washington has already deployed thousands of troops to the region. "You can't tell Iraq 'disarm or else' from a distance," Yakis said. The United States "is doing the right thing by narrowing the circle around it ... and showing that there is no place to escape." State Minister Kursad Tuzmen is expected to visit Baghdad next week on a similar mission.

Black Blade: Looks like a two front war against Iraq. If the US does not attack then there are more than a few nervous countries who have given support who will fear future retaliation by force sympathetic to Saddam.

The Invisible Hand
(01/04/2003; 18:10:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93436)
Independence and ownership of the national euro CB's

According to the paper "progress Towards Convergence 1996" of the European Monetary Institute quoted by Darren Williams and Richard Reid in; "A central bank for Europe" in: Paul Temperton (ed.), "The euro", London , John Wiley, 1998, 2nd ed., 123, p.134,

INSTITUTIONAL independence means that the rights of third parties to:
- give instructions to NCBs (national central banks) or their decision-making bodies
- approve, suspend or defer decisions of the NCBs
- participate in the decision-making bodies of an NCB with a right to vote; or
- be consulted (ex-ante) on NCBs decisions
are incompatible with the Maastricht Treaty

PERSONAL independence means that the statutes of the NCBs should ensure that
- governors of NCBs have a minimum term of five years
- a governor of a NCB may not be dismissed for reasons other than that he/she no longer fulfils the conditions required for the performance of his/her duties or if he/she is guilty of gross misconduct
- other members of the decisions-making process of NCBs have the same security of tenure as governors

FUNCTIONAL independence requires the statutory objectives of the NCBs to be in line with the ESCB (European System of Central Banks)'s objective, i.e. price stability.

No third parties can thus give injunctions to the NCBs which must try to achieve the ESCB's objective of price-stability. Who owns them? Either they own themselves or the ESCB owns them.

Who owns the ESCB and the ECB? The ECB has been modeled on the German Bundesbank and has thus control over euro-area monetary policy. The French wanted however a check on the ECB. To that effect Euro-X has been instituted as a counterweight to the ECB. This is the group of finance ministers of the euro-area countries. Theoretically Euro-X could have control over fiscal policy. In practice national governments retain control over their own country's fiscal policy. Furthermore, Euro-X's room for manoeuvre is limited by the operation of the Stability and Growth Pact; the general need to reduce budget deficits further; and the views and actions of the ECB ((Paul Temperton, "Euro-X", in: Paul Temperton (ed.), op. cit., 145, pp. 145-146)

TENTATIVE CONCLUSION:
The monetary policies NCB's cannot be controlled by the national governments who cannot even control their own fiscal policies because they have to follow the views and actions of the ECB. Ownership is about being the boss and being able to tell what to do. This prerogative seems to belong to Dim Wim. Criticism most welcome.
Black Blade
(01/04/2003; 18:24:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93437)
Government bonds, gold oddly in sync
http://www.jsonline.com/bym/invest/jan03/107937.asp
Snippit:

Investors longing for a return to normalcy need only look at the oddly synchronous performance of gold and bonds to know that something out of the ordinary is still going on across global financial markets. Under most circumstances, what's good for the yellow metal is anathema to long-term debt, since gold traditionally rallies during periods of rising inflation. Conversely, high inflation seriously undermines the value of fixed-income securities, typically sending bond prices lower. During the last bull market in gold, Treasury bonds actually lost money on a total return basis over the five years through 1981, despite yields averaging more than 10%. In 2002, however, long-term Treasurys returned almost 17% while the average gold mutual fund soared 62%. In other words, gold and high-quality bonds moved decisively in the same direction. Elsewhere, stocks declined for the third year in a row for the first time since the 1930s and money market mutual funds barely eked out positive returns after expenses.

Two factors account for the simultaneous bull markets in government bonds and gold. First, the bursting of a speculative asset bubble in equities three years ago unleashed deflationary pressures that still are working to the advantage of higher-quality bonds. But even as Treasury securities booked double-digit gains, portions of the corporate sector languished. In fact, the average junk bond mutual fund actually lost about 2% last year. The reason for the strange divergence within the fixed-income group also explains why gold finally broke out of its 20-year bear market.

Recently, however, investors found themselves in a much different situation. After a powerful five-year bull market, the dollar began trending lower, thus removing what had been a dependable port in the storm. Meanwhile, the prolonged economic slump in the U.S. made Wall Street a decidedly inhospitable place. Finally, extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve sent cash yields tumbling to around 1%. Investors have to put their money somewhere, and with the dollar, stocks, lower-grade corporate bonds and cash looking unattractive, debt and gold became the investments of choice. The question now is whether the bull markets in those sectors have further to go, or if buying at current levels would be a classic example of getting in near the top. Although gold prices are up 25% from a year ago, the metal has broken out of its long-term downtrend. Supply and demand characteristics also look favorable. Gold prices would be especially strong if the looming conflict with Iraq spun badly out of control. Even when geopolitical tensions ease, the world will remain a more dangerous place than it seemed in the 1990s. That factor alone could compel investors to permanently raise their allocation to gold.


Black Blade: Add into the mix fast and furious energy price increases with little of no relief (possibly for several years), an equities market hurtling into oblivion, record levels of all debt (and rising exponentially), rising unemployment, lost consumer confidence, a real estate bubble precariously balanced on the point of a sharp needle, and a world where terrorism is a daily fact of life. Yeah, I can see why people would prefer to have some precious metal as a backup.

Black Blade
(01/04/2003; 18:36:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93438)
Police Break Up Food Protest in Zimbabwe
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20030104_563.html
Snippit:

HARARE, Zimbabwe Jan. 4 � Police fired tear gas and charged crowds with batons to quell rioting in a food line in western Zimbabwe, witnesses and the state-run media said Saturday. The clash involving hundreds of people waiting in the line was the most serious violence since severe food shortages hit the troubled country in recent months. Zimbabwe is experiencing s food crisis that threatens some 6.7 million people more than half the population with starvation. The situation in a nation once known as the breadbasket of southern Africa is blamed on drought and a collapse of agriculture after the government's confiscation of white-owned farms as part of its land-reform program. As a result of the agricultural crisis and the general collapse of the economy, long lines at stores have become commonplace with people lining up by the hundreds to buy scarce corn meal, sugar, milk, cooking oil and meat. Many leave empty handed when supplies run out. Hard currency and fuel also have become scarce in recent weeks as Zimbabwe suffers its worst economic crisis since independence in 1980. Inflation and unemployment have soared. Essential imports have been sharply curtailed, causing black market trading in fuel, food and other goods at up to ten times the government-fixed price.

Black Blade: In Zimbabwe too. Nothing is mentioned about any "beer shortages" though.

Mr. Bill
(01/04/2003; 18:41:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93439)
@Black Blade - Euro
Tell me. What is your take on the euro. Are you for or against. And why?
Paper Avalanche
(01/04/2003; 18:46:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93440)
The bigger the lie, the more people who believe it...
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhcoThVJR3JhbWxpThe quote in my subject line was taken from Hitler, yet is just a true today.

Snip:

"The Fed has said it ``regards the price index for core personal consumption expenditures as the most realistic indicator of actual inflation,'' Gramlich said. That indicator shows that inflation has averaged 1.7 percent per year over the past seven years; subtracting the measurement bias implies ``a true inflation rate close to zero,'' Gramlich said. Fed officials have said that price indexes can overstate inflation by as much as 2 percentage points."

I would ask anyone who has the data to support my request to provide me with any of the following consumer items that have averaged an annual increase of 1.7% for the last seven years:

Education
Health Care
Movie tickets
Food
Gasoline
Home energy
Insurance
Housing

When you realize that you are being lied to you can then embrace the truth. The truth is that the gubmint (owned by its creditors, the Fed, since it has been in bankruptcy since 1934) lies to the sheeple and does so activley so as to have such things as the COLA (cost of living adjustment) to such "benefits" as social security only increase by the "offically reported inflation amount" while true inflation in a definite multiple of this reported amount.

My new years resolution is to post to this forum from outside the soon-to-be-US-concentration-camp in a few months.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche

Simply Me
(01/04/2003; 18:52:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93441)
@ Paper Avalanche
What do the items on this list have in common?

Education
Health Care
Movie tickets
Food
Gasoline
Home energy
Insurance
Housing

Answer: None of them is made in China

Hmmmm....
Simply
Black Blade
(01/04/2003; 18:59:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93442)
Many face cold winter without heating aid
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/004/oped/Many_face_cold_winter_without_heating_aid+.shtml
Snippit:

FOR THE MILLIONS of poor, elderly, and handicapped Americans who rely on the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program as a lifeline in times of extreme weather, this is going to be a difficult winter. The program was established in 1981 to ensure that families living at or below the poverty level would not be without heat during the winter's coldest months and could avoid facing life-threatening decisions about rent, food, medicine, and warmth. Last winter was mild, and home heating costs were lower than normal. Yet many states had record numbers of energy assistance program applicants due to the lagging economy. This year has not seen a reduction in the number of applicants, and forecasters say that this winter will be harsher than last. The first band of winter storms has already marched across the country. According to the latest Energy Information Administration predictions, households may face heating expenditure increases of 31 percent for natural gas, 17 percent for propane, 13 percent for electricity, and 41 percent for heating oil. The expected rise in heating oil costs is particularly alarming for the Northeast because we consume 75 percent of the nation's heating oil. This means that if prices rise significantly due to cold weather or reduced supply, or conflict in the Middle East, families already in economic distress will be forced to tighten their belts even further.

Black Blade: This is just the tip of the iceberg so to speak. The economy is in a shambles and energy costs are forcing many to choose between energy and food. Elitist environmentalists are ecstatic of course. Gives credence to the old bumper sticker "Let The Bastards Freeze In The Dark". Just a sign of the times. As always, be prepared for the "New Great Depression". Hmmm�

Black Blade
(01/04/2003; 19:11:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93443)
Re: Dollar Bill - The Euro

I am neither for or against the Euro. Personally I am surprised that it has apparently worked (so far). I am interested to see how long the Euro will function as a currency given that there are now 12 nations with different political systems, cultures, justice systems, fiscal policies, economic needs, etc. At some point I think that these differences will either have to be resolved with a single European government having all political control over all the participating nations thereby giving up national sovereignty or the rules will have to be in constant flux weakening the alliance. But so far I have to admit it appears to have successfully held together. The real test now is what happens as the region's economy suffers and nations pick sides over possible war and threats of terrorism. For the sake of the people and all involved I hope that they are successful though I have my doubts.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(01/04/2003; 19:13:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93444)
OOPS!!! I Mean't Mr. Bill

Sorry about that. I mean't to direct that last post to Mr. Bill. Ah, a Bill here and a Bill there and soon you have a lotta Bills. Just kidding.

- Black Blade
Aristotle
(01/04/2003; 19:33:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93445)
Dollar Bill #93358
I've read every word of your brief post. Four times, just for certainty.

Sometimes it's helpful to simply hear someone say, "I understand what you mean."

Buddy, I *completely* understand what you mean.

If it's any consolation to appease your frustration with this sorta thing, consider this refreshing thought about the folks who DID design the bridge, and who are letting some traffic flow during this final phase of construction: They most assuredly engaged in a design phase rich with contingency forethought that provided for a robust construction phase which could withstand the wind that troubles you so.

Let it blow, and toss your hat in the air, feeling all the better for your own clear perspective!

Now, in good turn, do you understand me?

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
The Invisible Hand
(01/04/2003; 19:39:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93446)
Still no evidence of WMD in Iraq, so let's bomb them
and threaten to bomb Korea
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2627593.stm

In a further escalation of tension aircraft taking part in US-British patrols attacked military communication sites in the south of Iraq.
The US military said Saturday's strike, on targets south-east of Baghdad, was "in response to Iraqi hostile acts".
But an Iraqi military spokesman insisted the planes had hit civilian targets.


http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia_china/story.jsp?story=366462

According to a South Korean newspaper, Munhwa Ilbo, Seoul is presenting a "three-stage" mediation proposal � a US guarantee of the North's security and fuel oil supplies in return for an end to the nuclear weapons programme; international economic assistance; and a multinational security guarantee for the North, including from China and Russia.
But the Bush administration has repeated that it will not negotiate another deal with North Korea, which it says cheated on a 1994 pact. "We have no intention to sit down and bargain again, to pay for this horse again," said the State Department spokesman, Richard Boucher. "We are not entering into negotiations ... to get them to commit to something that they've already committed to."
North Korea blames the US for the dispute, which it said yesterday was serious and unpredictable. Its ambassador to China repeated demands that Washington agree to a non-aggression treaty.
==
wouldn't like to be short on gold on Monday.
Aristotle
(01/04/2003; 20:05:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93447)
Belgian #93428
Trying as hard as I might, I can't see any way to improve upon the parts and the whole of your beautiful commentary.

For "lousy english" you sure know how to capture the subtle importances which are all too often lost on others. For example:

= = = =
The euro doesn't want to be seen as being "backed" (!!!) by its Euroland Gold exchange reserves. Gold-backing is an outdated notion from the goldstandard era. The euro wants to be the currency that is *** aligned *** with a Free Physical Gold Market !The association of euro with Physical Gold instead of the dollar associated with paper-contract-gold !

......When The Physical Free Gold Market is understood in relation to the organizing euro-currency...you will change your vieuw on that notion of "Gold-backed". Forget about the dollar-view of "goldstandard". This thing never worked but nevertheless existed for decades ! It will take decades before we might conclude that the euro/gold/oil concept has its flaws or is rightout unworkable. But at present we have no other choice than to do something drastic about the global monetary monstrosity.
= = = =

I can think of a short list of posters who are surely singing your praises right about now for that good delivery. I'm one of them, and jolly glad to have you around to help chew the fat.

Gold. Get you some for best *alignment*! --- Ari
Cavan Man
(01/04/2003; 20:08:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93448)
USAG93445
Now, that's the Aristotle I've come to know at this board and respect so very much 'lo these (almost) four years. Yes, it has been that long. "Who loves 'ya baby?"
Cavan Man
(01/04/2003; 20:12:22 MDT - Msg ID: 93449)
Belgian 93428
C'est bon! Holding a few Xcellent Jrs with my hand on the trigger but, "seriously folks"....."let's get physical, physical". Thank goodness disco is kaput.
Cavan Man
(01/04/2003; 20:17:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93450)
Hello first time visitors!
For any of you reading here and living in or hailing from the midwest or midsouth/south, this might be (I am speaking about the gold market) your last and best chance to, "cut a big hog" before the deluge. Don't look this gift horse in the mouth.
Aristotle
(01/04/2003; 20:30:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93451)
Cavan Man
Heh heh heh... I'm sure there are more times than not when you'd sooner BOX my ears than tolerate my spectral contributions. Through it all -- good cop/bad cop -- I'm glad you ultimately know where my heart is aligned. Thanks for hearing me through the long years!

Gold. etc., etc. --- Ari
Cavan Man
(01/04/2003; 20:39:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93452)
Cavan Man 93450
Pardon moi for clumsily mixing metaphors.

Black Blade
(01/04/2003; 21:35:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93453)
US dollar faces year of living dangerously
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,630-531381,00.html
Snippit:

IN A very uncertain financial world, there is one thing about which most people agree: the US dollar is overvalued, and on a downward slope. The drumbeats have been getting louder in the past few weeks. The price of gold has risen sharply as investors have looked for safer places to park their funds; the new year forecasts from the world's currency analysts were almost universally pessimistic about the dollar; the gloom-and-doom merchants have been dusting off their sackcloth. The only real debate seems to be about whether the currency is set for a gentle slide, or for something more dramatic. There are three main reasons for this weakness. The most important is to do with economics. America's export performance has been deteriorating rapidly for the past four years, with the result that it is now running an enormous deficit on its current account. That's no problem so long as foreign investors are happy to finance the deficit by buying more dollar assets. But if they decide for whatever reason that they have had enough, the deficit will have to shrink � by a fall in domestic demand, taking the pressure off imports; by a fall in the dollar, or most likely by a combination of the two.

Black Blade: Interesting article. The US dollar is grossly overbalued now and must devalue even as foreign currencies work furiously to devalue their own currencies. That leaves gold.

silvercollector
(01/04/2003; 23:36:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93454)
Black Blade, all
I read that article this morning and there is the other side of the coin.

What if, Germany and Japan go into a further tailspin and what if the US mops up Iraq in a 'couple weeks' and oil goes back down to the low-mid 20's/bbl?

The race (currency) to the bottom as we jest about does not necessarily imply that the dollar is the first to hit the skids.

Here's a wild, wild guess to what I feel might happen over the next 3 months. The drumbeat gets louder and louder as Jan .27 approaches (first UN report). Who knows, Hussein may blow it before that date. Unless Hussein suddenly hands over all his WMD and waves a white flag, war is on by mid-Feb at the latest. Oil and gold is very volatile until that date, oil peaking in the upper 30's, who knows, low 40's and gold breaking the 354 resistance and catching the next breaking point somewhere between 380 and 400.

Okay, let's pick a date for argument sake, Feb 8, the 'allied' forces begin bombing the daylights out of Iraq.

Now we have 2 scenarios to choose from, war goes well, war doesn't go well, depending on which side of the fence you stand.

Now here's what I read in an article this afternoon; Hussein lets loose everything he has on Israel, he whats to go in history as the man who wiped it out. All the terror that has been pent up since 911 is released in the US and its allied countries; suicide bombers, antrax, the missing 'suitcase nukes', dams, bridges, the dozens and dozens of unknown terrorist acts that are unstoppable.
The US counters with nukes on Iraq and it is vaporized in half-an-hour. Who knows where this goes, one does not really want to believe it even remotely possible.

The other outcome is a quick decisive victory by the US without complications.

The implications to gold and oil in either case is rather obvious and quite opposite. So given that you and I and a host of others are into physical (as we should) and holding interests in gold and energy companies how does one play this out?

I frankly am getting a little nervous. I am getting 'butterflies' in being 'long' in any one direction.
I am interested in how you (and others) plan to 'play' the game.

Maybe half the planet will be crystallized and it won't matter, pray to TPTB (not those ones) that this is not the final outcome.

Yours truely,

'Nervous Nellie'
Carl H
(01/05/2003; 00:35:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93455)
R Powell: Re: 93229 Devil's Advocate

Rich,

First, I really like the way you phrased it: "The game is ever afoot!" That sentence says a lot. It is indeed a game � the ultimate game. The prize is the resources and labor of the world. The only rules are those that someone can't find a way to break. We are fortunate to know that there is a game and have at least half a clue what is going on! (Thank you Bill, Chris, Reg, Mike, etc.) It keeps life interesting!

First, I will, respectfully, disagree regarding whether the POS is "actively managed". I believe it is because:
1. The Strong Dollar Policy exists and appears to mean strong against all currencies and all commodities.
2. The US government coerced Warren Buffett out of his first corner on the silver market.
3. The ~1BOz in the DLA stockpile was sold off.
4. Ted Butler has been relentless in contacting the authorities about the short position in the silver market. Yet all he gets back is static.
5. There is precedence that TPTB manipulate other commodities:
A. Short Term Treasuries (via the Fed)
B. Oil (via the SPR)
C. Many agricultural products (by forcing over-supply via subsidies)
D. Gold


Second, I believe that the analysis of Butler and Morgan are correct given the information we have. This begs the question: "Do we have all the important information?" The fake silver jewelry issue comes to mine. I think there is a big question mark there.

Third, I half agree, half disagree with you on the derivatives point. I agree that the notional value is a fairly useless number. However, I believe that significant derivative positions exist in gold. I have seen them in annual reports of several mining companies. I believe it is likely that bullion banks that were "in the know" about the suppression may also have written calls. Some of these calls will become more and more painful as the POG rises. There is the potential for a melt up if, for example, someone cracks under a margin call. However � I believe that we will never see this because the TPTB can probably handle such a situation behind the scenes. Hence, I think that POG rise will be relatively controlled.

If I read your specific situation right you are:
1. Long Dec Silver
2. Short March Silver
3. Hold a March 450 Call

Suppose silver goes to $50/Oz. What happens if the counter parties of your long and call default? I suspect that you would want out of your short position really bad.

Ok, now consider a bullion bank that has supposedly offsetting positions. One of those positions is a long where a mining company is the counter party. What happens to the bullion bank position if the mining company defaults on the position. It leaves the bullion bank in a bad position � one they might be anxious to cover.

Regarding the threat of digital photography � I think that one has to be very careful interpreting the data. The data set I have is from the World Silver Survey 2000 p55. I would like to point out several things:
1. The consumption numbers do not tell you what percentage of silver halide photography has been replaced by digital. All it tells you is if the total silver halide use is rising or falling. My personal observation has been that a majority of our friends are now using digital cameras. (Probably a somewhat skewed sample.)
2. The large majority of the silver for photographic use is used in US, Japan, Belgium, UK & Ireland, and France. They probably account for 80% of the usage. In these countries, many people already have computers, so affording a computer is not a problem.
3. The price of both cameras and printers have fallen a lot in the last year. The cameras are so cheap ($39) we got one for my 4 year old to play with.
4. Acceptance of a technology usually follows an "S-Curve". I believe we are approaching the "tipping point" for digital cameras. (I suggest the book titled "The Tipping Point" � it is quite good.)
5. Cameras are now being integrated into cel phones. (Hot item in the far east.)
6. There are now digital X-Ray machines. (I saw my dentist using one and I got to discuss the technology with him � it is actually quite simple and quite clever how they did it. Speaking as a solid state device engineer, a direct solid state X-Ray imaging device would probably be impossible to build. What they have done is use an indirect imaging technique that is very clever and cost effective. I suspect this is a technology that is early in it's S-Curve.


Thoughts anyone? (Anyone want to sell me their silver after reading this? :-)
Christian
(01/05/2003; 00:51:59 MDT - Msg ID: 93456)
(No Subject)
2003 average commodity gold price will be $467 which prices credit creation gold at $14,000. At $14,000 the credit creation gold can keep the mortgage refinancings and home equity lending going. Mortgage refinancings and home equity lending is built on financial leverage made possible by derivatives. Note that the $14,000 credit creation price of gold is made possible by the workings of the fractional reserve banking. Instead of using depositors money banks of all sizes now "loan" themselves digital money, based on "paper gold" which is legalized counterfeiting of warehouse receipts on gold that does not exist, deposit it on their account, and then loan it out. That loan becomes an asset which then becomes an asset for another loan, which becomes another asset for another loan and on and on it goes. J.P.Morgan entire loan portfolio is built on paper gold they loaned to themselves from mostly offshore accounts they created. J.P.Morgan created the BRE-X scam in order to profit from the demise of the gold stocks. They profited enormously from shorting gold stocks. I do agree that J.P.Morgan has no exposure on their gold short position because it is backstopped by the Treasury. The Treasury does not wish to start a gold short position themselves just to cover or settle its account of the trade deficit with BIS. The U.S.Treasury owes a lot of deep storage gold to the Bank of International Settlements to cover the trade deficit. The J.P.Morgan paper gold short position is just that a paper gold short position used to make loans to themselves. ALL BANKS DO IT.....GOLD IS A Credit Creation Vehicle. So is silver. The only difference is gold has an above ground supply and silver does not. I can proof that then J.P.Morgan - used legalized counterfeiting - issuing fake warehouse receipts on gold that does not exist. They do it because they have insufficient real deposits to make loans with. This is a nation wide problem that is getting worse because they pay less and less interest to depositors. Greenspan has long lost control of credit creation. Even WalMart uses paper gold to fund its credit card. When the user of that card signs the slip (receipt) he or she acknowledges the the credit creation process. The problem is the money needed to pay off that charge is never brought into existence. Nobody is printing dollar bills be it in paper form or coins or placing dollars into your checkbook to pay that bill off. The real money supply to pay debts with is falling while credit debt creation is going up. WalMart is not using their credit card to loan you money. They are exchanging their product sold to you in exchange for a future payment. To me this is still honest. But J.P.Morgan loans out money they created by issuing fake warehouse receipts on gold that does not exist. Enron did it with oil and gas trade receipts. With banking you can sell anything to make a deposit, even a fake warehouse receipt on gold or silver that does not exist. If I had a brain I would do it myself. But I am so stupid that I find slaving for the counterfeit U.S.$ in my interest. "Those who create and issue money and credit direct the policies of government and hold in the hollow of their hands the destiny of the people."
Pippin
(01/05/2003; 03:09:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93457)
Topaz
Many thanks.
Belgian
(01/05/2003; 03:55:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93458)
Sivercollector,Ari,CM,BB,Bill,Leigh....ALL
It is *Impossible* to take the "euro" out of the Gold-equation, anymore. Whatever setback it (the euro) may encounter. I'll repeat only one seemingly innocent recent anecdote : Our ex-central banker, F.Verplaetse, was lured on tele (once) in an innocent show, together with his prime minister. Verplaetse, immediately and without any suggestion towards the subject, talked about our national GOLD ! He eagerly wanted to anticipate any possible Gold-questions wich weren't on the agenda anyhow. I have some other very good arguments...simple and straithforward...but a bit compromising.

This to communicate that Euroland AND the euro in particular is Gold-Anchored (Leigh). Ari describes the present "bridging"-situation at its best. Yes Ari...I surely think I understood you very well.

May I recommend all to reread Randy's compilations/archives on CB's statements and policy outlines. There is one euro-constant : A will to obtain "STABILITY" !!!
This obstinent will is challenged, today, even within Euroland (BB) for shortsighted economic reasons, wich is ridicule. This weekend a Belgian CB-candidate did it again (liberal politician-P. De Grauwe). But this self proclaiming academic is an intellectual dwarf and therefore excellent for the political circus.

Henry C K Liu (atimes.com-Global economy) : Part 3d: The lessons of the US experience. A treasure on insights.
Very helpfull in understanding *why* we (the world) need another-anchored-reserve-currency...NOW !

The present core group of Euroland central bankers are getting the blame for the contracting economy. Politicians are shooting at the messengers and refuse to tackle "structural reforms". Liu, illustrates very well in his Banking Bunkum series of articles, where we stand now.
But Liu is afraid/reluctant of facing the possible *total* solution of the euro-concept.
The policies of the ECB and the FED are diverging more and more out of their former sync. Evidence that the new euro-concept, differs from the old dollar-concept (centered around oil/gold).

Impatient goldbugs are theory-averse and demand the long expected price-explosion of their different Gold-Holdings. Gold-Advocates watch patiently the bridge building with Physical Wealth in Possession.

Today I pay my bills in euro (notes) from the Indian Ocean over China/Australia to Hong Kong. For me as an Eurolander...the US$ is history.

In 2004, the euro will serve an additional amount of 200 million Eurolanders. A gigantic leap forward. This very risky jump would be "impossible" if the euro wasn't build on a "waterproof" concept !!! Do you understand now, why the euro is confusing friend and foo ? The ECB/BIS ivory (sorry, golden) towers "know" what they are doing !

Yes the euro is another fiat-currency, but soon sleeping with an emancipated, FREE, Golden woman. The dollar remains in bed with the inflatable doll.

Gold, the exchange-reserve, is wildly reschuffling around, from CB to CB as it did in the past 70 years. Gold is replacing former paper-dollar exchange reserves. This renewed action is taking place because of the very existance of the euro. Gold is taken *in* because dollars will go *out*. The rising Gold-Tide will lift the euro-ship and sink the dollar-vessel.

Central Banks prepare for a full blown "digital"-currency world. The dollar and euro differ totally in that preparation. That is exactly what is so confusing to all of us. Evidence for all this is difficult to detect and when it is presented...difficult to consider as such because of its pluri-interpretable aspects. I simply refer to the wide range of interpretations of the Washington Agreement amongst many other aspects !

The coming war(s) and their aftermath(s) might affect POG, relatively little. External events simply move the paper-price of Gold up and down. It is the underlying purpose for and with Gold that is of constant importance ! Gold the commodity will somehow play a little for some little time to come. But Gold the ultimate exchange reserve is building under the skin as a growing reserve. Remember A/FOA story about the chap having sticked his diamont under his skin.

It was A/FOA who unveiled the euro-Gold association. His interpretations of historical events are correctly projected into a *very possible* future outcome for Gold...Oil and currencies. And that's what it is all about...GOLD, OIL AND CURRENCIES desperately needed for structural reforms to be made possible with new monetary policies, worldwide! The *drama* has a globalized, International dimension, NOW ! Evidence abunded for this !?

davefinger
(01/05/2003; 04:14:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93459)
Short but mildly interesting interview
http://www.newsday.com/business/printedition/ny-bzwall3074307jan05,0,9408.story?coll=ny-business-printAt least the word is getting out, even if it's a little tepid. Highlights:

"...managing director of CPM Group, a New York City-based research and consulting firm specializing in precious metals and commodities. The firm is a 1986 spin-off of the commodities research arm of Goldman, Sachs & Co., in which he served as vice president from 1981 to 1986."

"Gold has probably made the bulk of its upward move, unless we see further catastrophic developments in the world. This year, gold is likely to trade in a range of between $305 and $360 an ounce, with an average price of $330."

"I like silver more than gold. Oil has had its run. But silver is interesting because its price is still undervalued, and there are indications that inventories are getting low. Silver is probably close to the point in which its continued use in photography, electronics and other applications will push its price higher. Silver's price today is $4.50 per ounce. Over the next two years, I could see silver reaching $6 per ounce."

"I don't like precious metals mutual funds. ... They're not good long-term investments because the precious metals markets typically rise for about two years and fall for six. The better ways for private investors to get involved are to buy the shares of publicly traded companies in that field or to buy bullion."

----

Seems like his views are predicated on a lack of any serious USD value/status volatility or other fundamental economic shifts. Still, he recommends bullion so he can't be all bad! :)
davefinger
(01/05/2003; 04:30:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93460)
I like this guys outlook much better
Best part, to me anyway:

Among the metal's fans are Mr. Ing of Maison Placements, who argues that gold's most important recent move was to climb above $330 last month.

"Was $350 a breakout? The answer is no," he said. "Really, the $330 was the breakout. We have a near-term target of $375, but that's not the high; I think the high this year will be $510, so we've only just begun this bull market in gold."
Hipplebeck
(01/05/2003; 05:11:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93461)
Belgian
What seems to you a complicated euro, is quite simply the exact same thing as the dollar.
When you speak of the new euro concept and how it will revolutionize gold blah blah blah, is nothing more than the world begins to price gold and oil in euros instead of dollars. There already is a free gold. I can buy gold coins with dollars now. The price fluctuates, it is not controlled by anything more than futures, options, and the perception of supply and demand. The big change you speak of is when I buy gold priced in euros. The derivative players will tie up gold in contracts in euros instead of dollars. Big deal.
The Euro is basing it's whole strength on the PROMISE of stability. Well, when it comes to human nature, need I say more?
The Europeans are jealous and naturally so, they want the world to price everything in their currency so they can have all the advantages that the US has had all this time. And they are going to get their wish because the dollar has ponzied out, and it's time for a new ponzi to begin, but it is still a currency based on a PROMISE of stability and not tied to anything stable. The Euro banksters are of course saying "Just give me the power and I will be much more responsible than those Americans", but human nature is human nature, and they will in time take advantage of that power.
gold is money.
not the dollar and not the euro
Hipplebeck
(01/05/2003; 05:30:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93462)
Greenspan and "netting out"
Greenspan has pushed in congressional testimony for a law that requires netting out of derivatives in any kind of crises.
Why?
I'll tell you why. It's because when the big crunch comes, he wants a law that allows bankers to get away with crimes.
In a crises, a player who has leased gold (meaning he owes it back), to cover the selling of gold options (meaning he owes it if called) is in the position of owing twice the amount of gold he has under his control. When the crunch comes, the people who bought those calls are going to want real gold, not paper confetti which can be printed at no cost. They are going to want physical. They have been sold someones promise to deliver and they are going to want it delivered. Now derivatize it a little further, and you have another party in who sells insurance backing the other party. Now there are three parties demanding someone deliver what they promised.
Greenspan sees what's coming, and wants a law that allows the criminals to slide out from under their contracts.
Greenspan (and his fellow bankster criminals) is afraid of somone having a legal claim to his gold.
Hipplebeck
(01/05/2003; 06:20:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93463)
Aristotle
Do you really think derivative players are going to quit writing contracts on gold just because they have to change the dollar symbol into a euro symbol?
Don't make me laugh. The euro isn't going to free up anything. Gold is already free. I can trade dollars for gold coins right now. The price fluctuates because of the perception of supply and demand. Euro symbol is going to change none of that.
The euro is a con job dressed up to look like something new and revolutionary. It is no different than the dollar.
We'll see just how your precious euro does when someone brings a gold backed currency into existence.
Someone will eventually, and it will become the new world standard. The gold standard.
Don't delude yourself into thinking the gold standard is outdated. It is outdated like honesty and truth are outdated.
Natural growth of above ground gold and silver (about 2%) is what builds a house that lasts for generations. Accelerated growth is what builds a condo that maybe lasts 30 years.
Men want to accelerate natural growth and remove natural cycles because of greed. Fiat money is just a way for one person to steal from another person.
gold is money
get you some and use it
Christian
(01/05/2003; 07:00:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93464)
Gold is money - get you some and USE IT
Easier said then done. I can't pay my property taxes with gold, nor go to a food store and buy food. As long as banks create credit by purchasing an asset like gold from a non bank, and pay it with a claim on itself, by issuing a loan agreement to a new buyer they have the power to turn $350 commodity gold into $10,500 credit creation gold with the fractional reserve system. USA can back the $ with $35,000 priced credit creation gold made possible with $1,167 commodity gold price. The problem is how to enforce it. There will always be people who find a way to cheat. What is a home mortgage?????? Read the fine print. BANKS CREATE CREDIT by PURCHASING AN ASSET (your home) from a non bank (YOU) and PAY IT WITH a CLAIM on ITSELF (your house they own) by ISSUING a LOAN AGREEMENT to the BUYER (you). In this process no money is created at all. Just debt. And that debt has to paid from a money supply that is only a fraction of total outstanding debt. Suppose you have $50.00 and $500,000 due NOW. You have no other assets that have equity meaning everything you own is not worth the claims against it. What are you going to do??? I am using a real situation of a store owner in that situation as of this day. The only way out I can see for him is if he can increase the price of the items he has for sale and be able to sell it. He can't sell it even though it is discounted. He can't even sell it at a loss. What to do????
Hipplebeck
(01/05/2003; 07:12:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93465)
Christian
You're right.
We have to start very small.
The beast is very great, but it has clay feet.
We break the feet down here on the individual level.
What does the store owner do?
Walk away.
Unless a man give up his life he cannot gain it.
Cavan Man
(01/05/2003; 07:59:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93466)
Hipplebeck
I completely agree with your assessment(s). Gold and silver were given to us to be used as real money. The unnatural velocity of fiat based economies fueled in large measure by greed will be our undoing. However, the next monetary paradigm will work or not work at least in the short to medium term like the Euro project. Perhaps a pure and honest gold standard will reign someday. In the interim, prepare for the Euro and others like it to dominate the monetary landscape. "That dog will hunt".
knotakare
(01/05/2003; 08:19:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93467)
Hipplebeck; I agree
That the Euro is an umproven currency and subject to the same inflation as the dollar. I don't see what is revolutionary about it at all. I think the currency for smart money at this time in history is a mix of gold and silver bullion and coins.

I think the Europeans and Japan/Taiwan are in a very vulnerable position. They are surrounded by preditors; a new US War Empire, Islamic extremists and a rising Soviet military machine. They rely on the US War Empire for protection. Relying on promises that can easily be broken. The Swiss and British have been selling off their gold, not exactly the right steps to insure stability.

And probably their number one problem is that their largest trading partner (US) has now embarked on the slippery slope of totally destroying their own currency and economy. There goes their largest customer.

The DAX in Germany is almost wiped out. These people are building castles in the sky.

This is just my opinion. I appreciate Belgian's analysis and enthusiasm, and I wish that he were right, that the world would have a new currency based on stablity and reason. But I'm not convinced at all. The only thing I am convinced of is that the dollar is going down, and probably sooner than latter.

knotakare
Black Blade
(01/05/2003; 09:01:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93468)
The Dollar: Soggy and Still Sliding
http://www.businessweek.com:/print/bwdaily/dnflash/jan2003/nf2003013_6876.htm?glThe Dollar: Soggy and Still Sliding

Snippit:

The greenback is weighed down by the trade deficit, low interest rates, and terror jitters America, accustomed to being the world's economic powerhouse, isn't laughing about a feeble euro anymore. The European currency, which fell to 87 cents in March, is back above a buck. At yearend, it hit nearly $1.05 -- a 17% loss of value for the dollar. Since late November alone, the greenback has slipped 6% against its European rival and now is at a three-year low. "America certainly doesn't have the attraction [for investors] it did in the second half of the 1990s," says Volker Dosch, head of U.S. equities at DWS Investment, a unit of Deutsche Bank and Germany's largest fund manager. A one-time jolt due to global jitters over the fallout from a war with Iraq? Hardly. An array of other pressures ranging from the huge trade deficit and low U.S. interest rates to the narrowing advantage in economic growth are also weighing on the greenback. Many currency traders figure the slide against Europe's common currency could be just the start of a broad decline. "The dollar needs to correct lower," says Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at MG Financial Group in New York. Many believe that the euro could rise to $1.07 in coming months. Moreover, the dollar, which has lost 5% against the yen since early December, could sink below 115 Japanese yen from its current 118. A modest further drop in the dollar probably would be good for the faltering U.S. economy on the whole. It clearly would benefit domestic manufacturers who export or who compete with imports. The combination of a high dollar and tough competition from countries with low-cost production has cost the manufacturing sector 2 million jobs since 2000. By lowering the prices of their goods in terms of euros, yen, and other foreign currencies, a lower dollar would let producers regain market share and maybe even raise prices a bit. "We are gratified to see that the dollar has been easing down. We think it has further to go before it reaches what we think is a fair level," says Hank Cox, assistant vice-president of the National Association of Manufacturers.

Black Blade: I agree that the US dollar is going to sink and that war fears over Iraq has little to do with it. The US economy is in a shambles and in spite of all the drivel from Wall Street hacks, the fact is the dollar is grossly over valued and the crushing debt in the US is taking a toll. Foreign investors are beginning to pull in their horns along with US investors and Wall Street is going to have a very rough time pumping and dumping with fewer Lemmings in the mix. The coming "energy crisis" will rip the US economy a new one if you get my drift. Equities markets have made fools of Wall Street strategists for three years running and will likely do so again. There will be few winners but precious metals will be near the top as investors far and wide panic and search for safe havens. These will prove to be very "Interesting Times".

Off to slay some fish before the weather rolls in!

Black Blade
(01/05/2003; 09:16:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93469)
Plane over Frankfurt threatens to crash into ECB

FRANKFURT, Jan 5 (Reuters) - An armed man hijacked a light plane and circled Germany's financial capital Frankfurt on Sunday while threatening to crash into the tower of the European Central Bank, the fire brigade said. A spokesman for air traffic control said they saw no terrorist link to the hijacking of the aircraft, while Germany's NTV television said the man had told them he did not want to kill anybody but himself. A spokesman for air traffic control said the armed man forced a pilot to take off from Frankfurt's Babenhausen airfield at 2:55 p.m. (1355 GMT) and had taken up contact with the Frankfurt airport tower, demanding to speak to CNN television. CNN said it was a single-engine Cessna plane.

Black Blade: Just stumbled across this. This guy hijacks a plane with a pilot. Makes a loony demand and says that he only wants to kill himself. Uh huh, the world is full of budding rocket scientists. At least he is "a man with a plan". The ECB eh? Hmmm�

Gotta set some hooks!
Genoo
(01/05/2003; 09:52:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93471)
Turk accepts the invitation and tips JPM into the tank
In the early days of January 2003, JPM management stated that "...we don't have any real exposure to gold..." The sec was then asked to investigate this "rumor"

IMHO this was seen as tres bullish for gold and suicidal behaviour on the part of JPM.

In letter #317 of this morning, in what may well prove to be the most important piece he has ever written, Turk reveals that he too has written the SEC requesting " ....whether these rumors have any basis in fact...{and if so}... to also ask for your determination whether the statements... {of JPM management}...are false or misleading."

Comment: No matter what JPM might do now..they have been hung out to twist in the wind..and largely by their own hand. Spot 380 plus here we come.

Chris Powell
(01/05/2003; 10:03:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93472)
Was Morgan Chase financing Enron with borrowed gold?
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1371Was Morgan Chase financing Enron with borrowed
gold? GATA consultant James Turk lays out the
evidence and asks the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission to investigate:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1371

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Christian
(01/05/2003; 10:07:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93473)
(No Subject)
What is a debt slave to do?? As long as banks can continually "loan" themselves digital money, based on a quantity of paper gold (nothing) and turn the loans into assets for making fractional reserve loans which itself become assets for more loans, commodity gold holding for long term capital gain is a poor investment. So what can a debt slave do? As I see it, he or she can 1- Buy nothing on margin or on debt. 2- Pay off your mortgage one way or the other, (a) pay it with funds available, (b) sell it, then pay it off, (c) Refinance to take out new equity, then sell it to bank for money owed, after you took the new equity out and purchased gold with it. 3- Become your own banker. Write your own loan by using your made up paper gold (nothing) and make it payable to yourself. It is easy. Stock traders borrow money against a counterfeit stock certificate every day and banks borrow against paper gold (nothing every day. That is how J.P.Morgan does it, and they are a high society bank. But we can't fractional reserve commodity gold into credit creation gold like the banks can. In the years to come home owners with home mortgages will find that they are no more than renters or indentured servants to the banks. Why not find a best way to use the very tricks they use on us. J.P.Morgan since its inception has used legalized counterfeiting by issuing fake warehouse receipts on gold that does not exist. Sure they have a gold short position backstopped by the Treasury. But the Treasury is using them as a way to create a gold short position IOU to the BIS to settle trade deficit account because there is no other recourse left. Paper gold is a way to legalize counterfeiting by issuing a fake warehouse receipt on paper gold that does not excist in paper form.
Mr Gresham
(01/05/2003; 10:07:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93474)
BB: "Man with a plan" (or plane)
NEWS FLASH!!!!

Hijacker threatening to crash plane into ECB HQ revealed to be ..........

BEN BERNANKE!
Max Rabbitz
(01/05/2003; 10:23:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93475)
Fed Governor Gramlich Says Inflation Overstated by 2 Percent!
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhcoThVJR3JhbWxpFrom the above Bloomberg article:

The U.S. Federal Reserve is one of the few central banks in a large economy that does not announce an explicit goal for inflation. Gramlich said that it is fairly easy to deduce that the Fed's inflation target is around zero, subtracting for a measurement bias in the inflation index it watches most.

The Fed has said it ``regards the price index for core personal consumption expenditures as the most realistic indicator of actual inflation,'' Gramlich said. That indicator shows that inflation has averaged 1.7 percent per year over the past seven years; subtracting the measurement bias implies ``a true inflation rate close to zero,'' Gramlich said. Fed officials have said that price indexes can overstate inflation by as much as 2 percentage points.

Max: A measurement bias of 2%!? I don't understand. What prices haven't they hedonically adjusted to reflect their idea of added value or available alternatives?

The core inflation rate that the FED targets excludes food and energy costs. With the exception of housing costs (rents kept low by housing bubble) much of the rest is imported, even some services (billing, records, sales) come from India and elsewhere via the internet. The inflation in medical, education, and insurance these last years has been out of control. The days of cheap imports with an ever stronger dollar are over. What will they do? Perhaps a depression with hedonically adjusted unemployment numbers (i.e., a higher quality of unemployment) or more changes in the inflation equations. There must be lots of Anderson/Enron people looking for work and willing to help out. Where's Jeff Skilling?

Mr Gresham
(01/05/2003; 10:35:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93476)
Belgian: Euro vs. "inflatable doll"
You ARE percolatin' lately, mon! That vacation sure did you some good.

We would not be discussing Euro if it were not for A/FOA, and I don't think they ever said it was a great investment in itself. Always said gold was it, and Euro was the trigger for the "re-pricing".

Euro is just something you'll write your checks in, not save your retirement in.

Why the trigger? Dollar now has competition. That's all it takes to shake a badly-run monopoly. Doesn't have to be perfectly run itself, or have booming economies behind it. Just has to be something OTHER than the Dollar, and able to penetrate world economy as its transaction currency.

I don't know how much that franchise is worth, or how much it's worth (in seignorage, effectively) to be the Reserve currency, either. Looks like another set of banks will get a chance to run with that.

And, sure, if it goes down in 30 years or so -- so what? Philosophically we all know the way things ought to be, and if people were wisely educated, they would insist on it. And we can keep promoting that education. But FOA was just telling us what was ahead just over the next hill.

And even at that, his timing was a few years early. I grant him that lapse because I was equally alarmed by LTCM/Asia/Russia in 1998, and believed things were this bad back then. The story of how they kept it all together will be a thriller. But it also stacks up more dominoes for POG's eventual launch. If they keep doubling down their losing bets, and the casino stays open, then they'll just have to pay off more in the end.

They've already bet the ranch, long ago. We're just having to wait a little bit longer to move in...

Thanks Belgian. Christian, you've been hot, too, lately.

Cleaning up "real world" problems now. POG is giving me a break, so I'm giving it a rest. Pardners for life...
Belgian
(01/05/2003; 10:50:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93477)
Hipplebeck and knotakare....en garde gentlemens !
knotakare: you > The only thing I am convinced of is that the dollar is going down...
Down against "what" Sir ? Answer : Against oil + gold + euro (and a few other currencies)! The dollar is already going down for the past 70 YEARS now ! No wonder you are convinced it is "still" going down. How can you be evenly convinced about the euro-currency's future, when it only circulates since 2 little years ?

You > They (euro-block) are surrounded by predators...
Who is threathening Euroland and with what ?

You > Swiss/Britons have been selling off their Gold...
How much of their Gold-exchange reserve is left and do you know where the sold Gold went to (BIS...euro-allies) ?

You > Their largest trading partner (US)...
Euroland is expanding from 300 million to 500 million Eurolanders. Internal expansion/growth.

You > DAX is almost wiped out...
NASDAQ 5,000 to....?

You are right indeed that the euro is an unproven currency...but on what basis do you conclude it is an ordinary copy of the dollar ? Is the US$ marking its Gold-exchange-reserves to market, every quarter ? The euro does ! Seems quite revolutionary to me, Sir.

Hipplebeck : Yes Gold is FREE for you , me and all other lilliputans ! And do you know how small in numbers and real buying power we are ? We are financial droplets in the oceans. PHYSICAL Gold is UNFREE for all Giants of any kind who wish to conclude their wealth !!! Yep, it took me quite some time to understand it myself. Want an example of such Giants ? Saudi Arabia (10 million souls) sells how many barrils of oil per day at what kind of profits...
Any idea about Chinese Giants moving from Hong Kong to Los Angeles ? They represent the third biggest GDP on this blue planet, Sir ! They have quite some excess confetti that desires to conclude their wealth also without putting them any drier for business/investment purposes.

What do you mean by : We'll see how your precious euro (thanks) does when someone brings a gold backed currency into existence ? Do you mean the good old greenback(ed) by (standard)gold ?

Present and a lot of past condos have been build with..."debt" upon debt! Who wants to pay for a condo with a lifetime of 30 years with Gold-Wealth for ever ?

In 2004, 25 countries (500 million people) will have thrown away their old currency for one single euro-fiat. Is this similar to the past dollar hegemony ? No Sir, the dollar destroyed all other currencies without replacement or compensation.

The euro promises nothing...the euro expands on an equal basis with those who wish to join !

But it is not the euro that is important overhere, but Gold.
Understanding where the euro is heading can only help in making one's own Gold-price-projections in time. So don't let your sleep for this other currency on the other side of the Atlantic, heading east anyway.
Thanks for responding and cheers to both of you.
MK
(01/05/2003; 11:01:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93478)
Knotacare, Hipplebeck. . .Eurothought
It doesn't really matter whether or not the euro is "successful" in any ultimate sense, in that currencies are rarely successful beyond their marginal utility domestically as units of account, savings and commerce -- and then (in the modern era post 1971) always in terms of their strength against goods and services. The dollar and pound have been rare exceptions to simple domesticity and there are those in both countries of origin who would argue the distinction of reserve currency should be seen more a nuisance than a blessing. So the dreams of the EU could very well fall into the "be careful what you wish for" category. What you gain on one side of the ledger -- economic hegemony, you lose on the other -- the cost of maintaining that hegemony. If one were to quantify the price of empire going back to the Athenian owl and working forward, dreams of currency domination would be found to ultimately figure large in that empire's demise. For the amateur historian and investor both sides of the ledger need be entertained in order to understand the significance of this sort of thing to the portfolio.

On the international front, as opposed to domestic utility, I can only get this far in my thinking: The euro's effectiveness -- in terms of what it means to you and I as individual investors -- is only important with respect to the inroads it makes against its primary competitor, the dollar on the international front. Discussions about whether or not the euro is a better currency than the dollar, or vice versa to me equate discussing whether one should use tylenol or aspirin for a fever. They both work, so for me its six of one, half-dozen of the other. To the tylenol or aspirin manufacturer however there's a world of difference in my choice. And the more tylenol I use, the worse it is for the aspirin people.

I don't think that Another/FOA, Belgian or Aristotle would disagree with me that with respect to the euro's effect on the price of gold, the real debate is not whether or not the euro stretches beyond being another fiat currency, but to what degree it's viable enough to drain investment capital away from the dollar -- at whatever level of the financial world you would like to consider, i.e., individuals, commercial banks and investment houses, central banks........whatever. Then it becomes important -- practically speaking. Over this first week of January, we have been treated to dozens of analysts and pundits telling us that gold's fate is directly and inversely tied to that of the dollar. So if the euro makes the inroads, just for the sake of discussion, the dollar is thusly diminished. And gold rises in dollar terms proportionately.

The real world less than subtly imposes itself. . . .and that unless I'm missing something is the heart of the euro argument with respect to gold.
Belgian
(01/05/2003; 11:14:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93479)
Dearest Wise Gresham....
Boy, am I glad you added that final euro-touch in such elegant wording. Thanks mate.
BB could you give us a sign of your smile with the flying "Bernanke" kamikaze-humour of Gressy ? I surely had LOL.
BB : Do you really think the ECB/BIS = FED/IMF ? TIA and your opinion is much appreciated.
Mr. Bill
(01/05/2003; 11:33:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93480)
Belgian msg#: 93477 � revolutionary?
SNIP
You are right indeed that the euro is an unproven currency...but on what basis do you conclude it is an ordinary copy of the dollar ? Is the US$ marking its Gold-exchange-reserves to market, every quarter ? The euro does ! Seems quite revolutionary to me, Sir.
ENDSNIP

Nothing more than another con game. But a game that was designed many years ago. At that point in time, when it was known the US dollar would die, the euro was envisioned as a replacement. But it was also known that conditions would not permit a pure fiat currency to survive. A gimmick was needed to pull it off.

And that gimmick was the mark to market of gold reserves. Now, by allowing the gold price to double, twice as many euros can be printed. And still the reserve ratio looks good. But someone just got stuck with those extra euros. And they still get to keep the gold. This is what will drive the gold price. It is just a question of how many euros they will need.

This is just more of the same old, same old. Only presented in a different flavor. But I guess that they do not need new tricks. After all, people never learn.
GratefulForGold
(01/05/2003; 11:49:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93481)
Hipplebeck (and others) re Euro/US$

I agree with you that fiat is fiat, period.

In my simplistic understanding, I have favored the Euro only because it is offering the world a choice of fiat to use in its transactions. To me, this is transitionary...it is the beginning of the break of the US$'s strangleghold (a devalued US$) � which allows for or enhances the rising POG (or, for gold to start to attain its true value by the world's standard).

Of course, the banks who trade in Euro fiat will benefit the same as the banks who have dealt in US$ fiat, and will attempt to continue same. It seems to me that the ME situation may throw a wrench in the European bankers� long range global plans, if the Islamic peoples exert a coordinated stand and challenge the Western/European powers. If the ME (and Asia ) hold a major portion of the world's oil AND gold (via quiet accumulation), who now makes the rules?

Am I being overly simplistic?

Hipplebeck
(01/05/2003; 12:14:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93482)
gold backed currency =
a reciept for a certain amount of gold, exchangable at any time.
Just like the dollar was until 30 years ago and why it became the world reserve currency before the greatest theft in history.
First they ripped off US citizens, then the rest of the world. Who? Banksters and politicians. The club of thieves
The theft goes on. That is why the euro exists, to try to keep the US faction from stealing it all. Yes, even criminal banksters and politicians have factions that battle in gang warfare. Never forget, banking and government is organized crime. The supreme accomplishment of ideal dreams of honest money and government laid down in the US constitution has been usurped by thieves and criminals.
When the gold dinar or whatever comes into existence we will once again have an honest economic system with which to trade in. credit is not money. Gold is money
Cavan Man
(01/05/2003; 12:29:49 MDT - Msg ID: 93483)
On topic....
"The 19th century gold standard was the highest monetary
achievement of the civilized world. The gold standard was
neither conceived at a monetary conference, nor was
it the brainchild of some genius. It was the result of
centuries of experience."

Ferdinand Lips
at the Humanitarianism at the Crossroads Congress


Trapper
(01/05/2003; 12:43:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93484)
Sir Hippleback
Hip I must agree with you ( for the most part ) on your views on the euro. I see a scam operation that is supposed to be the greatest new fiat since sliced bread. I saw the the photo for an ad for the euro, here is a fellow standing in front of an opened vault door and behind him is stacks of gold bars. This would lead one to belive that the euro is backed by gold and a euro holder could get gold in exchange. Big lie. Most people belive that US money is directly backed by gold too. They have gold we have gold so what. It really won't make a difference if the euro is marked to maket every minute of the day unless the holder can CONVERT. We can't they can't. If Euroland grows from 300 million to 500 million someone is going to have to BUY a bunch of gold, do you really think that is going to happen.
The US is the world super power for one reason FREEDOM for its people. We are as a people the most productive, inventive. and Determined people on this planet. Only because we are the mosy free, but as our freedom is being eroded we will lose that place in direct proportion. Our distinct culture is being eroded by the multiculturialist. If we will keep our ideals and idenity by maintaining our freedoms then surley no weapon formed against us will prosper. That weapon can be bombs, missiles, guns, or even a new fiat. I do buy gold and use all the time in my commerce, you can get one of my muzzleloaders for paper money or at a good discount for using gold or silver to pay me with. Live small.
Christian
(01/05/2003; 12:44:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93485)
production of a gold coin worth 100 Euros
The Euro framers have a plan to produce a gold coin worth 100 Euros when it enters circulation to float along the side of the Dinar. The idea then is to let this gold coin float and let the coin value be determined by the people who use it. No amount will be stamped on it. Date for circulation as of now is the later part of 2004. The coin will be usable for payment of debt at whatever the market price gold trades at. By that I mean a person can go to WalMart in a Euro country, buy a 10 Euro item with the coin and get change back in Euros for whatever the gold is worth on that day. The framers feel it will mostly be in circulation in the Middle East and be convertible to Euro's for those people who want Euros. They also feel that Russian citizen's will also use it. I feel good about it, but seeing is believing. Why can't we do the same thing and not print a value on it for less then it is worth in metal? I would like to see a gold dollar coin worth $100 for the little people to use. Why have it written in the Constitution that gold and silver is money and then not even provide a coin usable for paying of trade? Don't stamp a number on it. Here in God we Trust would make sense.
Old Yeller
(01/05/2003; 12:57:59 MDT - Msg ID: 93486)
Trapper

The real reason the US is the economic superpower is that
they own the printing press(at present)and they employ
their $360 billion plus military machine to enforce their
monetary hegemony.

All the rest is just noise.
Hipplebeck
(01/05/2003; 13:02:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93487)
dollar is an adjective
not a noun
Cavan Man
(01/05/2003; 13:04:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93488)
Christian
Because.....we are trapped by history and precedent. I view the Euro monetary model (which I beleive the US will adopt out of necessity) as a bridge to a pure standard. You cannot turn an aircraft carrier on a dime.

IMHO, it would be wholly impractical make the quantum leap from pure fiat to pur gold and/or silver.
Belgian
(01/05/2003; 13:24:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93489)
Sir Kosares # 93478
Two different currency blocks + two different CBs (FED-IMF/ECB-BIS) + two different amounts of Official Gold exchange reserves (8,000 - 15,000 tonnes - $/�) + millions of different private Physical Gold holdings in proportion to confetti. Quite a variable Gold-palet.

I wish to know what will happen to my Goldcoins within 10...20...30 years from now. The past 20 years, Physical Gold has not showed (given evidence) of being a (practical) conclusion of wealth, permitting us in mobilizing this wealth, at any given time, for other purposes than idle storage of that wealth, falsely priced when needed. In other words, GOLD was/is UNFREE ! Unfree in providing you the right amount of confetti when needed (emergency sale). CBs kept Gold unfree and aborted/paralysed Gold's purchasing power for the $-confetti's sake. I want to know if this will end and I want to know "how" it will end. We are all free (since 1975) to buy Physical Gold but with no guarantee that the storage of that Physical wealth will serve us, pricewise, as it is supposed to serve when desired by the private holder. CBs certainly have NOT this problem with their INTERBANK Gold-dealings. This is UNFREE Gold for the people !

I am not bringing the euro up for discussion in its capacity of another currency, but in its possibility that it has a plan with Gold...the Goldmarket.
I don't expect anything from the dollar side. See how the dollar devaluated since 1945 and check Gold's purchasing power, today, in proportion. Gold is definitely at a loss.

If the euro can only succeed in bringing the dollar further down from here and Gold is only compensating this continued dollar-decline...we can't talk about a "perfect" conclusion of wealth in the sense that it is un-practical since one has to wait for the unknown revaluation-time/moment for Physical Gold to be exchanged for workable confetti.

It is to *change* the past Gold-Suppression (unfreeness) that a Free Market of Physical Gold is needed. One's conclusion of wealth must be freely exchangable for confetti and vice versa. Not only the privilege of central bankers but for all individuals, great and small, as well.

And here we land by the euro. How ambitious is the euro now and how ambitious will the euro become later ? Will the euro mark its territory with pure economical backing or has it a monetary Golden card ?

Is it the dollar that will keep on "pricing" Gold or is it the euro that will "value" Gold with setting it free ?
A very, very big difference to me ! POG exchangable for 600$ at a possible unfortunate moment (opportunity loss) or FREE GOLD evolving in a Free Physical only Market, constantly mirroring monetary management/confidence in one (new) currency in particular. Be it a new dollar or the evolving euro !? I don't care.

Is it an euro free physical Gold market or another variant of the dollar goldstandard ? It is those CBs that decide on this as long as their present/future Gold exchange reserves remain forcefull enough against concerted action of Gold Giants, getting unpatient.

Has any currency ($/�) and its CB a plan with a certain Gold Giant or not ? And if it is the euro that might trigger a free goldmarket...than the euro must be a succesful currency at its start in order to be able to become more succesful with Gold or making an alliance possible with a dollar-averse Gold Giant.

Thanks Sir Kosares for letting some euro-steam going free.
Belgian
(01/05/2003; 13:51:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93490)
Mr Bill # 93480
You > ...allowing the goldprice to double, twice as many euro can be printed...
Precisely Sir !
How much would POG be today if the same "gimmick" were used for all those printed Bernanke-dollars OF THE PAST 30 YEARS ALONE ? Thanks for having confirmed the beginning of the free goldmarket. Cheers brother.
Waverider
(01/05/2003; 13:52:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93491)
Happy Birthday Sir Gandalf
A little hobbit told me so...yes? A very Happy Birthday to you this weekend as you celebrate another year and grow even wiser...is that possible? Your Health and Prosperity were toasted last night at La Tropicana in Havana - hopefully you received the good tiding personally via mental-telepathy, pray without the sudden onset of a migraine!

Spot 'n Spike got a little rambunctious on Friday - nicely done! I just have opportunity at the moment to skim and catch the DMR - a Godsend. And yes BB, trails are both happy and extremely interesting thus far, but oh tears Leagh, oportunity for a visit doesn't present at the moment. Take care All, Cheers,

Waverider
Sierra Madre
(01/05/2003; 14:55:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93492)
Your are quite right, Christian

The secret of the beginning of a transition from paper, to real money, lies in precious metal coins with NO NOMINAL VALUE.

I can tell you from experience that people who should know better, have a very difficult time coming to grips with the idea of a coin with no nominal value. (It has to do with the cyclic decline of humanity towards the Reign of Quantity (q.v.)) Even supposedly knowledgeable individuals find it hard to visualize a coin in use, which DOES NOT HAVE A NUMBER STAMPED ON IT. - We, humanity, are no longer interested in the the Quality of a Coin, but in the Number it bears. Doubtful that this trend can be reversed, but the attempt must be made!

One way that this proposed ECB gold coin can be helped along into common use, either for payments as a last resort, or preferably as an item to be saved, is for the coin to be given a widely quoted exchange value by say, the ECB. This value, to fluctuate day to day, according to circumstances. This helps teach people the value of the coin, until they get used to it.

Sierra
Sierra Madre
(01/05/2003; 15:16:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93493)
GratefulForGold: your post 93481
"Who now makes the rules?"

That is precisely what we are about to find out, with this coming war in the Middle East.

The US says, "We've got the destructive power, we make the rules."

Islam replies: "God is Great. You want a hundred years of war? You'll get them."

Fragments of Kipling's "Recessional" come to mind...

"If drunk with sight of power we loose
Wild tongues that have not Thee in awe;
Such boasting as the Gentiles use
Or lesser breeds without the Law

Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget, lest we forget"

R Powell
(01/05/2003; 16:06:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93494)
Carl H
Thanks for the thoughts (93455).
I learned the hard way that you are indeed correct in thinking that external happenings can and do affect commodities prices. The strong dollar policy which helped support the stock market mania of the late 1990s was probably as big if not a bigger factor in the price of most commodites (and gold) than was the supply and demand part of the equation, other than extreme variations of the equation. Whether this effect should be called a consequence of monetary policy or called intentional control and manipulation of the POS is questionable.
This same strong dollar forced world demand to buy cotton anywhere except the USA and caused the majority of many commodity suppluses to end up in that country which tried to sell at the highest price (due to currency exchange rates)- again the USA. But, to date, I haven't heard any cotton farmers complain of a conspiracy to lower cotton prices. They fell from over $0.70 to $0.30 per pound with about $0.50 being the cost of production. This occured in years where production often fell and carryover did not increase.
The POG was probably targeted because it is a highly regarded indicator of inflation. I don't believe silver is seen as such but more of an industrial metal (although a monetary link with gold remains. However much tomfoolery with managing prices there was will probably come to light (thanks GATA) and will eventually fail, hopefully freeing the POG. Market forces are stronger than any manipulation over a long enough period of time (and it's been long enough!).The Fed.'s fear of deflation and the fate of the dollar changes everything.

All my derivatives games are through Comex. I do not worry about the possibility of default that you mentioned as the futures market requires margin and maintenance to assure payment. This "downpayment" is constantly on the plus side, checked daily and positions are offset immediately if funds needed are not wired (same day!). The funds are not held by either party or any broker but by independent clearinghouses. All transactions are cleared every day. Comex is an Exchange but they too do not hold the money. The game, for me, is settled in fiat. OTC deals are a horse of another color and I have no knowledge whatsoever on which to judge their safety. I gave the example of one simple position to explain why the notional value of derivatives does not bother me. It involved two futures and one long option all of which boils down to the one-time cost of the option. Notional value? It cost me about $700 plus the margin which is low for a spread position. I'm not trying to promote commodity trading which is maybe the riskiest of games. Aristotle need not get his blood pressure up; I'll be the first to recommend physical holding over stocks, certificates of gold or any trading schemes. However, I will speak out to clear misunderstandings of how these markets work.
As for Ted Butler's complaint of more short positions than there is supply, should the next buyer of silver be told she can not buy because there are too many shorts already? She can not buy unless someone sells. And if too many longs called for delivery? Of course there is not enough physical, it would cause the grandaddy of squeezes (wouldn't we love to see that!) and result in fiat settlement. If you want physical, call M.K., not your broker but don't berate the markets for functioning as they do. They work fine.
I've been wondering about the production of silver eagles which, up until this year, have been produced with government silver valued (am I correct here?) at $1.29/ounce. The cheap silver is gone, what will the eagles made from $4.00-$5.00 (or higher) silver cost?
Buy Cheap, Buy Now, Buy Often
Thoughts?
Rich
R Powell
(01/05/2003; 16:11:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93495)
Gandalf
Birthday! And you weren't going to tell us, were you?

Thanks Waverider....Happy birthday to you, happy birthday to you, happy birthday to Gandalf...
Did the Hobbits get you anything shiney and preciousss?
silvercollector
(01/05/2003; 16:15:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93496)
Bomb blasts in Tel Aviv and freak flying plane in Frankfurt....
...might lift gold at the open.

But then again we have been watching the terror business on that side of the planet for a long time.

Now put the terror on this side of the planet and we will see a different 'gold' story.
Christian
(01/05/2003; 16:16:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93497)
Caspian Sea + Central Asian Oil Reserves
Chevron, Texaco, Exon Mobile, British Petroleum, Conoco and a number of others want out of their Caspian Sea and Central Asian holdings if they could find a buyer. The estimated 200 billion barrel reserves are now estimated at 20 billion barrels of which half is of poor quality (high sulfer content). The Afghanistan pipeline construction has been junked and replaced for a pipeline through Turkey, Iran and the Kurdish part of IRAQ. This route is favorable because the route taken would hook up a number of oil fields along the way. The present Iraq wants in on the new pipeline to move some of their oil. Looks like to me Jordan, Kuwait, Kurds, Iran and Turkey are all about to get more land to occupy while U.S. troops will guard the major oil fields from being destroyed. The idea is to cut Saddam of from oil. Looks like to me the Iraqi people can choose the place to flee to.
Trapper
(01/05/2003; 16:33:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93498)
Sir Old Yeller
Your idea that the US is only at the leaders position because we some how took it by cheating the rest of the planet. Well who really should have been in the leadership position? I have the globe out and as I look at each nation I ask Oh hows about this one...no, Oh how about this one...no not them. You might have an arguement if you fore go history as when our forefathers carved this nation out it was Britian who ruled the waves and the sun never set upon her empire. But that was about to change with a letter signed by some pretty scared men sent to the King in 1776. Will we say at this place perhaps, perhaps not, that remains to be seen. But to say we are at this place only because we the US dollar has been the reserve currency since 1971 is to negate history itself.
Black Blade has actually explained things very well in his reporting on the oil men of Venezulea. There are teaching the world a very important lesson on "Who is John Gault". Much like the copper mining baron in Rand's book D'Acona I think was the name, who wrecked his entire empire rather that let the socialist squander it on the non producing people. Can the US keep the place it now holds, with the scoialist grabbing at us at ever turn one would wonder. Live small my friends.
R Powell
(01/05/2003; 16:36:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93499)
And the winner is
Last Feb. Keith Barron interviewed some well-known names about the gold market. He ended by asking each for a year end prediction of the POG...The article is titled "The Gold Rush is Here!!"

"Gentlemen, your predictions for the price of gold for December 31, 2002:

Bob Chapman: $300 per ounce by the end of the month. If it breaks $340 it will go to $525.

Robert McEwen: $350 US

Ian Gordon: $500 US

David Tice: $400 US

Bob Bishop: $360 US
Shapur
(01/05/2003; 16:41:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93500)
silver
I once heard an interesting musing:

"If one knew into the future and could forsee that on Friday at precisely 3:00pm New York time that the stockmarket would fall a 1000 points and told this to a wall street trader he would buy stock until 2:59 pm!"

When the last ounce of silver is sold and the barrel is empty, then and only then will silver make its move. Silver is not a problem until silver is a problem.
Arcticfox
(01/05/2003; 16:53:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93501)
Savoie on Silver..
http://www.silver-investor.com/yearend.htmSnip..
The long anticipated rise in silver prices, like planting an acorn and waiting for the resulting tree to become tall and big enough to build a tree house in, appears very close to happening. CFTC Commissioner Thomas Erickson resigned effective December 1; Harvey Pitt of the Securities Exchange Commission left office under fire, and on December 6, Treasury Secretary Paul O� Neill announced his resignation. Perhaps these departures have to do with desire on their part to distance themselves from the nearing firestorm in financial and commodities markets.




Cytek
(01/05/2003; 16:57:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93502)
Unemployment - As BlackBlade would say "Looking pretty Grim"
Just spent the afternoon with my niece, her husband has been unemployed for 9 weeks now. He applied for unemployment and calls an automated voice system every two weeks but hasn't gotten a penny from the State of Michigan. After talking to several unemployed people at an M.E.S.C. office he found people that haven't seen their first check, some for 19 weeks. He has now called the Senator in Michigan and has meet with him personally two weeks ago and still nothing. The Senator claims they are closing offices due to budget cuts and are trying to automate the system. My question is these people have paid into the system for years, in my nieces husbands case 13years without a layoff and can't collect a thing. Looks like something is definately up with the State. Wonder if were going to start hearing more stories in other States?

Cytek
Carl H
(01/05/2003; 17:31:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93503)
Spot
GO SPOT GO!!!

Sundeck
(01/05/2003; 17:32:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93504)
Spot
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlSpot leaping and howling...$354 looks likely
cyberbat
(01/05/2003; 17:49:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93505)
Spotacus
At 353.30 and getting frisky again. We're all going to be rich beyond our wildest dreams!! Heh, heh; just kidding.
Cavan Man
(01/05/2003; 18:03:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93506)
For my friend Sierra (he of the Madre)
Recessional
God of our fathers, known of old--
Lord of our far-flung battle line
Beneath whose awful hand we hold
Dominion over palm and pine--
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget - lest we forget!

The tumult and the shouting dies;
The captains and the kings depart:
Still stands Thine ancient sacrifice,
An humble and a contrite heart.
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget - lest we forget!

Far-called, our navies melt away;
On dune and headland sinks the fire:
Lo, all our pomp of yesterday
Is one with Nineveh and Tyre!
Judge of the Nations, spare us yet,
Lest we forget - lest we forget!

If, drunk with sight of power, we loose
Wild tongues that have not Thee in awe--
Such boasting as the Gentiles use
Or lesser breeds without the law--
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget - lest we forget!

For heathen heart that puts her trust
In reeking tube and iron shard--
All valiant dust that builds on dust,
And guarding, calls not Thee to guard--
For frantic boast and foolish word,
Thy mercy on Thy people, Lord!

Rudyard Kipling

goldquest
(01/05/2003; 18:14:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93507)
@cyberbat message #93505
No Kidding Allowed! I feel it is our turn for a change. Many of us have played and suffered the PMs game for a long time. In my case, since about 1986! Talk about getting in early! Seriously, I wish the very best and riches for all of us that believe in the GOLDEN dream! Besides, I would like to buy my Beech Baron this spring! Best wishes, goldquest
Carl H
(01/05/2003; 18:25:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93508)
R Powell: Cotton
I wanted to respond to your comment on cotton. About 2 years ago I started wondering if there was more to the strong dollar policy than just gold shenanigans. Hence, I asked myself the question, how would I implement a strong dollar policy if I were TPTB. The suppression of commodity prices and currency exchange rates were what I concluded would be needed. So I started examining a number of commodities. My examination consisted first of thinking about the nature of the commodity, particularly supply/demand curves, availability of new production, and stockpiles. For crops my conclusion was that a dose of subsidies that is modest compared to the worth of the crop produced can cause an over supply which keeps the commodity priced around the cost of production rather than what it is worth to the consumer. Incidentally, in the late Clinton years there was a large increase in farm subsidies (~2X, if memory serves me).

As far as why no cotton farmers are complaining � it is a case of each one of them feeling good for getting their little subsidy check from the government. What they don't realize is that they collectively would make more if they were weaned off the subsidies.

Incidentally, generally, I am a proponent of free markets � however, in the case of food crops, I believe that forcing an oversupply might be a good thing since undersupply is a really bad thing and cannot be very quickly corrected. (Takes time for the stuff to grow.)

Finally, you commented: "Market forces are stronger than any manipulation over a long enough period of time " Unfortunately this is not necessarily true. Market forces are neutral -- they neither inherently support or inherently resist manipulation. In fact, the most successful way to manipulate a market is to work with the market forces. Subsidies do exactly that. Gold is another matter. In the case of gold they are working against the market forces. I believe they will fail, but keep in mind that they have kept it up for probably about 20 years. As you say, long enough.


Gimli_
(01/05/2003; 18:25:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93509)
Precious Metals used in Integrated Circuits
http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/Article2.asp?datePublish=2002/12/27&pages=06&seq=25Ferro claims breakthrough in MLCC material costs
Hans Wu, Taipei; Jane Wang, DigiTimes.com

Ferro, the world's largest MLCC (multi-layer ceramic capacitor) powder materials supplier, said in 2003 it will be able to provide a pure silver powder that can replace palladium and reduce two-thirds of costs for NPO products.

To make 100 kilograms of NPO MLCC products requires 90 kilograms of ceramic dielectric powder, nine kilograms of silver powder and one kilogram of palladium. The palladium would cost US$9,000, by far outweighing the costs of the other materials, at US$2,250 for the ceramic dielectric powder and US$1,350 for the silver powder. The US-based powder materials supplier claimed its pure silver powder would eliminate the US$9,000 for palladium and only nudge up the cost of silver powder to US$1,500, saving total costs for 100 kilograms of NPO MLCC products by two-thirds.
cyberbat
(01/05/2003; 18:26:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93510)
@Godquest
I agree. I've been snookered and false alarmed now myself since 1986. I do have my mind on a 53' corvette reproduction. Seriously though, I am worried about my friends, neighbors, and relatives that just don't want to listen to me anymore about the subject of gold. They accuse me of "crying wolf" to many years and now I can't seem to make any penetration into their uncommon sense. I guess I don't blame them, but I still intend to try and help them when the "Sinclair Storms" arrive. I really worry about them, but what can one do. I'm so paranoid now that I'm almost afraid to leave my money in the banks now.
I'm positioned now with physicals and mutual gold funds (Fidelity and Vanguard) and want more. If I hadn't been stung so many times I would buy 50'000.00 of physicals right now. Guess I'll have to be satisfied with what I have. Just hope it goes far enough for me and the others I care about!
silvercollector
(01/05/2003; 19:01:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93511)
Second crack at 354 tonight....
For anyone keeping count of the cracks at 330 here's a look from historical graphs of spot (Kitco)

May 29,2002 327.30 8:05am (eastern)

May 31,2002 329.20 7:50am

June 4, 2002 329.90 2:00am, 5:00am

These few days saw multiple assaults at 325/328/330. Exciting days.

June 24, 2002 327.20 4:00am

July 21, 2002 326.60 8:00pm

Sept. 9, 2002 324.80 9:30am

Sept. 24, 2002 327.80 9:30am

Nov. 13, 2002 324.50 8:30am

Gold began its last assault on 325/328/330 on Dec. 5

Dec. 6, 2002 328.60 9:30am

Dec. 12, liftoff from 326.60 10:15 to 333 @ high noon.

Dec. 13 saw intra-day high of 335.50

Dec. 16 saw 339.10

Dec. 17 saw 341.50

Dec. 18 first crack at 354/355.

Jan. 5 second crack at 354/355


I am posting this to illustrate the several attempts to break resistance of the 325/328/330 level. It took 6 months.

This in no ways means that 354/355 will behave the same.

Good luck!!
Farfel
(01/05/2003; 19:02:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93512)
Thank you.......
Although I have not been feeling well lately, I wish to thank the many posters on USA Gold plus other gold forums for the good wishes they sent my way.

It is difficult to keep "a gold dog" down, so I am adding another weapon today to the growing arsenal necessary to liberate gold investments from the artificial suppression of its conspiratorial antagonists.

Thank you again.

Cytek
(01/05/2003; 19:08:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93513)
JPM to cover their Short Position
A friend of mine heard from a Broker in NY that the Fed is loaning JPM federal gold to cover their short position. However, it is just a rumor, nothing confirmed yet. The question is, is it enough to cover their entire position.As they say, JPM is too big to fail. Still, it would mean the banks would be covering and not trying to short gold down anymore if they have to get bailed out.

If the rumor is true then it is a partial bailout, enough to contend with the crisis at hand. The question is, how high with the covering push the POG up. Barrick's hedgebook has got to be underwater about now. I believe some crisis news about hedgebooks will be coming out soon at $354 gold. Next week should be interesting, there could be the start of some panic buying of both bullion and Mining stocks. Mergers are going to happen, their "back door" covering strategy. Tuesday will also be interesting with Pres Bush's tax plan, this could rally the markets short term and then i think re-test September lows. How about March Gold at $400 and Silver at $8.

Cytek
MK
(01/05/2003; 19:09:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93514)
Farfel. . .
May I be among the many who have publicly thanked you for the courageous effort you have made in behalf of gold, its advocates and owners. Many times you have been an inspiration to me and countless others. You are a good man, Farfel, and you never shrunk from the din of battle. I salute you, my friend. May God bless and keep you, and as the Irish say, "May the good Lord hold you in the palm of his hand."
Farfel
(01/05/2003; 19:12:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93515)
Attention Enron Investors: Let Brothers in Arms Unite!
Exclusive for USA Gold.......................


With his usual brilliant analysis, James Turk recently challenged the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate the gold loan exposure of JP Morgan Chase. However, unfortunately, I am not particularly optimistic that Turk's efforts will inspire the SEC to conduct a proper due diligence examination of JP Morgan and its apparently labyrinthine gold derivatives structure.

First, the SEC has a miserable track record of proactive strategies to preclude malfeasance in the markets. Where was Arthur Levitt's SEC during the height of internet mania? Why did the agency sit upon its hands whilst the most egregious financial scams in American history were perpetrated upon the American investing public? One can only surmise that there were some very powerful vested interests on The Street who have influence over the SEC....and they were far too busy promoting hot air financial vehicles and accumulating windfall profits to allow the SEC to spoil the party. For example, do you think Goldman Sachs wanted the party to end any time soon when it could provide EBAY honcho, Meg Whitman, stock in some 100 high tech IPO's in exchange for her company's business? Even to this day, the SEC has failed to take appropriate sanctions against Ms. Whitman. Yet, utilizing her corporate position for her own personal financial gain without any revelation of her profiteering nor distribution of her profits, she effectively "robbed" her own shareholders ...and her corporate malfeasance makes Martha Stewart's one time incident of insider trading appear to be no more than a schoolgirl prank, by comparison. Of course, as a now former director of Goldman Sachs, Meg Whitman is keenly aware of what gold investors have known for some time: it sure helps to have friends at Goldman when it comes to operating outside the boundaries of proper acceptable conduct in the marketplace.

Secondly, since the revelation of the Enron fraud, what has the SEC done with respect to Enron's major executive culprits, Mr. Skilling and Mr. Lay? Why is the entire Enron investigation relegated to the back pages of the financial newspapers, if it is even mentioned at all anymore? Why hasn't the SEC intervened to examine the settlement reached privately by JP Morgan and the insurers of its offshore "disguised loans" in order to determine whether such a settlement is really in the best interests of Enron's shareholders?

Thirdly, with the appointment of long time Wall Street veteran, William Donaldson, to head the "new" SEC, are we really to believe that the agency will mount a voluntary and vigorous investigation into Street goliath, JP Morgan Chase? How can a man with personal and business relationships formed all over The Street be the right person to conduct a truly unrelenting, hard core examination of the investment bank, JP Morgan...especially given that JP Morgan's many counterparties consist of a Who's Who of Wall Street firms and given that JP Morgan happens to be a principal of the US Federal Reserve? Excuse me if I do not believe Mr. Donaldson is sufficiently independent of Street influences to scrutinze properly the gold derivatives book of JP Morgan.

Fourthly, since JP Morgan utilized offshore vehicles in its various scam trades with Enron, then just how effective can the SEC be in terms of examining the investment firm's activities outside the jurisdiction of the United States? When JP Morgan states that it has no real exposure to gold loans, is that simply another "Clintonian" word game, where "it all depends upon what the definition of "has" is? Is it conceivable that JP Morgan has hidden most of its gold loan activity through offshore shell corporations in much the same manner that it hid its oil and gas trades with Enron? Is it not reasonable to assume that if a corporation utilized a particular strategy (offshore trading) for a lengthy period of time with some success then it would continue to utilize that same strategy with respect to ALL its various business activities? If the SEC is to probe the JP Morgan gold book, it MUST demand to see a schematic of all related offshore entities. Then, the SEC must pour over the books of each and every offshore vehicle in order to determine JP Morgan's "real" exposure to the gold market.

I applaud Mr. Turk and GATA for launching a counterattack against JP Morgan and its allegations of
unfounded negative rumors concerning its exposure to gold derivatives. However, I humbly suggest that the methodology is wrong and that a grass roots approach would be much more effective.

The people who most likely desire a full revelation of the JP Morgan gold book are those who have been hurt by it the most. Those constituent members fall into two camps: gold investors and ENRON investors. Both groups share one thing in common...they are both victims of covert, nefarious actions by Establishment cronies who conspired to self-enrich at the expense of
small investors who remained outside the loop. In effect, although most ENRON investors would likely describe themselves as stock market and US dollar bulls, the reality is that ENRON investors and gold investors are "brothers in arms," linked by their victimization at the hands of the powerful Street interests who defrauded them. In the case of gold investors, the covert gold carry trade was the primary vehicle utilized to steal their monies over the past several years...while ENRON investors were robbed of their monies by offshore specious trading aided and abetted by two of the major bullion banks responsible for that very same gold carry trade.

It seems the most effective (albeit costly) approach needed to impel an investigation into JP Morgan's gold book is a direct appeal to ENRON investors and the politicians who represent them (virtually every politician in America, since ENRON common stock ownership was very broad-based). If at all possible, I would suggest the implementation of full page ads in major newspapers, financial and dailies, across the United States, with copy that paraphrases Mr. Turk's letter to the SEC, plus prefatory comments addressed to ENRON shareholders. In those comments, it should be noted that exploitation of gold investors by Wall Street firms led directly to the exploitation of ENRON investors by those very same investment firms. The ads should request ENRON investors demand an independent, non-SEC investigation into JP Morgan's gold book (possibly by an Elliot Spitzer-type, not as the co-opted Establishment man he is today but as the regulatory maverick he once used to be). The ads should demand an independent, non-SEC investigation into the settlement reached by JP Morgan and the insurance companies in order to determine whether coercion was applied to those insurance companies by Wall Street goliath JP Morgan in order to prevent the ENRON investigation from developing into a more thorough examination of JP Morgan's derivatives exposure. Ideally, the ads should be financed by the gold industry itself (although I would not hold my breath).

In other words, there is no more effective way to liberate the gold market from the conspiratorial shackles of its long time price riggers than by creating a common purpose with the multitude of harmed bull market shareholders (best exemplified by ENRON shareholders) who ultimately were wiped out by the very same gang of Wall Street thieves. It is one thing for "lunatic" goldbugs to demand inquiries into Wall Street; it is a much more compelling thing when 401K investors, bull market funds, and mainstream institutions demand the very same inquiry.

As ironic as it seems, who would have ever thought that there would come a day when a gold investor's best friend might turn out to be a shareholder in one of America's once largest corporations? Whether they know it or not, ENRON shareholders share more in common with goldbugs than they could ever imagine.

They should learn this little bit of news as soon as possible.



Farfel
R Powell
(01/05/2003; 19:20:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93516)
Farfel
M. K. said it beautifully. Ditto from me and the Mouser.
Cavan Man
(01/05/2003; 19:29:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93517)
An Irish Blessing for all USAGOLDERS
May those who love us love us.
And those that don't love us,
May God turn their hearts.
And if He doesn't turn their hearts,
May he turn their ankles,
So we'll know them by their limping.



Cavan Man
(01/05/2003; 19:35:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93518)
and, for Farfel
May you always have work for your hands to do.
May your pockets hold always a coin or two.
May the sun shine bright on your windowpane.
May the rainbow be certain to follow each rain.
May the hand of a friend always be near you.
And may God fill your heart with gladness to cheer you

(a reputed "Irish Blessing")Cheers...CM
cyberbat
(01/05/2003; 19:49:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93519)
@Farfel
Farfel,
When I see and hear about gold warriors like yourself, a favorite poem of mine comes to mind about you. It will forever remain in my mind but only spoken to a favorite few.

" He that is thy friend indeed, he will help thee in thy need. If thou sorrow, he will weep;If thou wake he cannot sleep. Thus of EVERY GRIEF in heart, he will share with thee a part.
These are certain signs to show, faithful friends from faulting foe." Richard Barnfield
We all know at this oaken table where you are coming from and are with you every step of the way. May God bless you always.
Your friend,
Cyberbat
balzac
(01/05/2003; 21:31:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93520)
MALFEASANCE AND GREED
@ FarfellowFarfel you are my hero!!

How about an email campaign to the various regulatory bodies,

including the White House and Congress.

We had well over 100 bugs in the last contest , they should be gratefull enough to send a few emails each.

Besides most of us old birds dont have much to do anyway.


Balzac
Hipplebeck
(01/05/2003; 21:33:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93521)
I just watched a tv show about Enron
It was well done.
I liked the part where Brian Dennehey (sp?) says "there are thousands of Enrons out there."
The truth of the matter is The United States of America is one big Enron, and they are trying to make the whole world into one big Enron.
The sooner it all comes crumbling down the better.
I just hope we don't destroy the world in the process.
I am hammering at the feet of clay every day.
Sierra Madre
(01/05/2003; 21:58:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93522)
Been in gold "a long time"?

How long is "long"?

How about since 1941? That's when I got my first little gold coins.

Can anyone at this Forum beat that?

Sierra
VanRip
(01/05/2003; 22:07:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93523)
Saddam to Speak Shortly-CNN
http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/01/05/sproject.irq.inspections/index.htmlLooks as if Saddam will be speaking just before the London markets open. Interesting.

(snip)

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein will deliver a televised speech on Army Day Monday, the Iraqi News Agency (INA) reported.

"The President will deliver a pan-Arab and historic speech tomorrow at 11:00 local time (0800 GMT) to the people of Iraq and members of our brave armed forces on the 82nd anniversary of the Iraqi Army," the agency said on Sunday.

Al-Iraq newspaper said the civilian militia of Saddam's Baath Party carried out the war game Saturday in Babil province. Militiamen practiced deceiving an attacking enemy and fighting in urban and rural areas, the paper said.
Sierra Madre
(01/05/2003; 22:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93524)
CyteK - I don't want to alarm you (too much) but

Your niece's husband might well consider a crash course in making tamales and peddling them house to house.

He better get busy with something! The longer he waits the more dire his plight will be.

A great many people are in the same boat now, and the sooner they realize that things are not going to go on as usual, the better for them.

Sorry to be so drastically pesimistic, but it does no good to ignore the facts.

Sierra
techbull....
(01/05/2003; 22:20:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93525)
Media
I had a look through my local newspaper today, and in it was a full page story on why not to buy gold. The clown they were quoting from CIBC Wood Gundy actually had the nerve to say that gold was a bad investment, because it doesn't pay a dividend like mutual funds or stocks can. It is almost unbelievable that these same idiots who during the tech boom wouldn't have recommended a dividend stock if there lives depended on it, now seem to think a dividend is a necessity. Obviously a lot more people are beginning to inquire about gold, or these investment guys wouldn't be in such a panic to defame it.
physicalman
(01/05/2003; 22:26:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93526)
gold longevity contest
Ya got me beat bud!! I'm 44 and got my 2 1/2 dollar indian when i was nine. When you got yours i wasn't even a twinkle in my daddy's eye.
LimitUp
(01/05/2003; 22:49:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93527)
Old Gold Bug
Sierra Madre, I can't beat 1941 but when I was an 8 year old in 1950 I would get hung up passing the coin display counter at Bambergers Dept. Store in Newark,NJ. The coins were beautiful and only $50. Then my mom would come back and drag me away. Got Gold?
Sierra Madre
(01/05/2003; 22:50:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93528)
Thinking of the swift decline of the USA
Historians and philosophers will deal with the subject of "The United States of America and The American People" for centuries to come.

The democracy of Athens lasted only a few short decades.

Shakespeare's "Midsummer Night's Dream" Act 1, Sc 1, comes to mind:

"Swift as a shadow, short as any dream;
Brief as the lightning in the collied night,
That in a spleen unfolds both heaven and earth,
And ere a man hath power to say, "Behold!"
The jaws of darkness do devour it up:
So quick bright things come to confusion."

The USA, as framed by its Founders, was indeed a "bright thing"!

But, the granite truths upon which they built, thanks to their excellent classical education, have been forgotten and long ago discarded. And the bright thing has come to confusion, indeed.

Centuries of debate will follow.

****

Thanks Cavan Man, for posting "Recessional" in its splendid entirety. And more thanks still, for referring to me as your friend. I reciprocate the feeling heartily!

Sierra
Zhisheng
(01/06/2003; 00:31:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93529)
Sierra Madre (#: 93528)
That was a wonderfully appropriate quotation from A Midsummer's Night Dream!

Thinking about it recalls to me a speech I heard LBJ give sometime in the mid-sixties, in the darkness of the Vietnam debacle, which was promoting his "Great Society." His speech-writer had him end the speech with a quote from Mathew Arnold's "On Dover Beach": he said

"Ah, Love, let us be true"
To one another! for the world, which seems
To lie before us like a land of dreams,
So various, so beautiful, so new,"

I had read it not too long before in an English Lit class, and it sounded off-key. I looked it up in my textbook, and it sure-enough was: the stanza is the concluding one of the poem and it continues and ends with

"Hath neither joy, nor love, nor light,
Nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain;
And we are here as on a darkling plain
Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight,
Where ignorant armies clash by night."

Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 01:29:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93530)
Natural gas prices rising as reserves drop with cold weather, less drilling
http://www.canada.com/halifax/story.asp?id=ABD9BB90-5A81-45E7-A6D1-68375D5091EA
Snippit:

CALGARY (CP) - The cost of natural gas, though not in the global spotlight like the price of crude oil, has been steadily climbing lately due to cold weather and dwindling reserves. Forecasters predicted another round of winter storms to pound the northeastern U.S. and boost demand for fuel. On Friday, the U.S. Energy Department reported that gas storage levels had dropped 123 billion cubic feet in the last full week of 2002, with total storage down 15 per cent from last year. All this will be a boon to the major natural gas-producing provinces like Alberta, British Columbia and Nova Scotia, which should enjoy greater royalty revenues as prices rise. But it will also saddle many Canadians with higher electricity and furnace heating bills. Gord Currie, an energy analyst with Canaccord Capital in Calgary, said the jump in natural gas prices is explained by three major factors - starting with the weather. "If you didn't have any cold weather on Wall Street - lower Manhattan - by about the middle of December, it's pretty much too late," he said. "But, of course, they had the one big snow storm and then a second one, so that's good for gas consumption." In the long term, natural gas prices will depend on a U.S. economic recovery, "and I think the jury is still out on that," said Currie. If there is a rebound as predicted, that will boost demand for natural gas, which is being used increasingly throughout North America as the fuel of choice for new power plants because it burns cleaner than coal. The third big issue affecting gas prices is a general decrease in drilling throughout North America, so new deposits are not being found to balance out the decline of existing reserves. Gwyn Morgan, chief executive of Canada's largest oil and gas company, EnCana Corp., said recently that massive consolidation in the oilpatch and the emergence of royalty trusts has had a harsh impact on exploration. "If you look at the combined exploration programs of the industry today, given that the trusts aren't exploring and the independents have consolidated, you've seen a huge pullback in grassroots exploration. "And this is, I think, over time going to take its toll on supply in North America."

Black Blade: Canadian fields are declining fast and storage levels are falling fast too. Since the US gets about 15% NG supply from Canada, it's a cinch that they will have less to export to the US. The US is going through its own rapid decline in production and storage levels. This is on top of little exploration and no reserve replacement. As I have been saying since before the last "energy crisis" (2000-2001), we headed headlong into an energy crunch of epic proportions. Forget about any economic recovery because without sufficient energy and higher energy prices there simply cannot be any recovery � cased closed! Game Over! And Check Mate!

Liberty Head
(01/06/2003; 01:33:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93531)
My first encounter with gold
As a young boy in the late fifties/early sixties, I went with my father to visit one of his friends named Bill. In the summer months, Bill was a prospector who lived on a large, remote parcel of land near Mt. Whitney outside of Lonepine California.
A nearby stream fed a water tank that he used to wash banks of soil into a soil sifter. Gold was $35/oz. He was getting about 3 oz of gold a month for a family of four.
He lived in a very small wood shack without electricity. Because he used dynamite close by, the windows were screens dipped in resin. They had a vegetable garden, a chicken coop with a still behind it.
They drank lots of beer, but because they didn't have a refrigerator, the beer was kept at cellar temperature,(90C, in the summer). He also had about 20 rusted junk cars from the 30's and 40's.
Range cattle had free roam of his land, so he would protect his garden from night raids with rock salt shotgun ammo. There were several mineshafts, I would explore with my brother. We would find tarantulas, boxes of dynamite and dead cattle.
Although, I didn't envy Bill's lifestyle, I sure admired his independent spirit. Seeing where gold comes from, makes it more special for me to own.
Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 01:39:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93532)
Oil Key in U.S. Strategy on Iraq
http://cgi.wn.com/?action=display&article=17737363&template=gas/indexsearch.txt∈dex=recent
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) � If the United States invades Iraq, there could be oil shortages and gas lines � or an oil glut and falling prices. Much depends on whether American troops can secure Iraqi oil fields and whether other producers continue the flow of oil uninterrupted. In the growing drumbeat over war with Iraq, the Bush administration rarely mentions oil, even though Iraq has one-tenth of the world's oil reserves. But a military campaign almost certainly will have a major impact on world markets. In the event of a war, Secretary of State Colin Powell said recently, ``We would want to protect those fields and make sure that they're ... not destroyed or damaged by a failing regime on the way out the door.'' The growing prospect of war, combined with the monthlong political strife in Venezuela that is hamstringing that country's oil production, already has caused unease among energy traders. World oil stocks have been tight and fell sharply last week, the Energy Department says. ``The loss of Venezuelan oil is beginning to hurt,'' says Robert Ebel of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. ``What people are beginning to worry about is suppose the loss of Venezuelan oil continues when we intervene in Iraq.'' Together, Iraq and Venezuela produce about 5 million barrels a day. Ebel and other energy experts wonder whether increased production from other countries will be able to make up such a shortfall. With global production at about 76 million barrels daily, a loss of several million barrels could cause prices to soar, economists say.

Scenarios:

�President Saddam Hussein's government falls quickly, the Iraqi oil fields remain intact and the country's already dwindling oil exports � about 2 million barrels a day � disappear for a few months. Venezuela's exports resume and other countries, led by Saudi Arabia, boost production to make up any losses. Prices briefly spike, as they did in the onset of the Gulf war in 1991, to more than $40 a barrel, but within three months recede to normal levels or even lower with supplies plentiful.

�An invasion meets stiff resistance, Iraqi oil fields are set aflame, production is disrupted elsewhere in the Persian Gulf, global supplies fall by 6 million barrels a day. Emergency stocks cannot close the gap. In such a case, oil prices could climb to $80 a barrel and stay above $40 well into 2004, halting the U.S. economic recovery and triggering a global recession, according to Ebel, whose group has mapped out a range of scenarios. There is gas rationing and lines at service stations.

Black Blade: As I said before, we must go to war for the sake of "cheap oil". The economy depends on it and we will get it one way or another.

ElGordo
(01/06/2003; 02:16:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93533)
China needs your Gold-please sell
HONG KONG, Jan 6 (Reuters) - The Shanghai Gold Exchange is currently preparing the groundwork that would allow overseas bullion dealers and individual investors to trade on the exchange for the first time, a spokesman said on Monday.

The exchange, which opened on October 30 last year, is preparing the regulatory framework for the launch of new gold contracts, Yin Po, an exchange executive told Reuters by telephone from Shanghai.

The exchange has a total membership of 108 domestic institutions, but since China's gold demand is greater than its domestic mines can supply, foreign suppliers should be invited to join the exchange, Yin said.

"They could sell their gold directly on the exchange rather than go through a middleman," Yin said.

The People's Bank of China, the central bank, previously controlled all aspects of the gold industry in China and it had three consignment contracts with UBS Warburg, HSBC Holdings and Investec to supply a fixed amount of gold each year.

The amount of gold supplied under those agreements was never published.

But those contracts were terminated on October 28 last year, Yin said.

The exchange currently allows trading only in physical gold and requires both parties to a transaction to provide 100 percent guarantees of settlement.

Currently, the buyer must show proof of payment ability and the seller must deposit his physical gold with the exchange before engaging in trading.

FOUNDATION WORK

The exchange is now preparing the regulations and procedures to facilitate deferred settlement and thereby the foundation for introducing other contracts, such as forwards or short selling.

"I can't give you a timetable for any of these measures, but we are actively working on them," Yin said.

Under the new regulations, the exchange would allow for the payment of a specified portion of the transaction, with full settlement within a set period of time.

The exchange has already laid out the initial regulations that will facilitate the trading of gold by individuals.

Technically speaking, this will consist of trading in physical gold and gold certificates, Yin said.

The market has shown some concern about the pricing of physical gold and gold certificates held by individuals, an industry source said.

The initial regulations will require the dealer to use the exchange's currently indicated price at the time of the transactions as a benchmark; pricing should be made within a set range above or below that benchmark price.

The range will be set and adjusted by the exchange in line with the market conditions.

The exchange is also permitted to trade in physical silver and platinum, but has yet to launch trading in those metals.

Shanghai's 99.95 percent spot gold contract closed at 92.64 yuan a granne, up 0.03 yuan over Friday.
----------------------------------------------------------
"Currently, the buyer must show proof of payment ability and the seller must deposit his physical gold with the exchange before engaging in trading."

Silver starts trading this year!
To the moon Alice
Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 02:41:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93534)
When the outlook is golden, start worrying
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0%2C%2C482-533878%2C00.html
Snippit:

On Saturday morning I opened the Business section and found an article by Richard Lambert headlined "US dollar faces year of living dangerously". He makes many of the points I was planning to make, and makes them very well � the overvalued and declining dollar, the "enormous" US deficit on current account, "the sorry state of the world's second and third biggest economies, Japan and Germany", the Asian central banks propping up the dollar, the sharp rise in the price of gold.

For the past 30 years I have been following the price of gold. In some circles I am regarded as a "gold nut". I have no objection to the term and may, on occasion, have earned it. But it is not an altogether accurate description of my interest in gold. I regard gold as the alternative to the central banks� currencies, and as a counter-indicator of the realities of the world's currency markets.

Gold is very different from paper money. It has had very long-term price stability, whereas currencies normally lose 90-100 per cent of their value in each century. Its price does not determine the export costs of the nation of issue. It cannot be created except by an expensive mining process and in small quantities; it cannot, therefore, be over-issued for political reasons, to win an election or pay for a war. It is an asset which is not represented by somebody else's debt or liability. It is the only form of asset that is both liquid, like a currency, and real, like property. For these reasons, it is the canary in the mine; major changes in the world exchange system usually show up early in the gold market.

In the past three years the world gold market has certainly been singing. Last week, it closed with gold above $350 an ounce; only a few weeks ago we were wondering whether it could break through $320. Not long before that the question was whether it could go above $300. The last time I wrote about gold, I commented that gold had been a better investment than equities and that I expected it to continue to outperform them. It has, and on a worldwide scale. For the past three years gold has been a much better investment than equities, in Japan, Germany, Britain and France, let alone the United States. Gordon Brown insisted on selling a large part of the Bank of England's gold reserve near the bottom of the market. Chancellors make rotten speculators.

After all, the United States is by far the leading world economy, Japan is second and Germany is third. The US has a serious problem with the deficit and the overvalued dollar; Japan and Germany have equally serious problems of low growth, financial deficits in the banking and insurance sectors, and non-competitive prices caused by their overvalued currencies. The big three all have sick economies. Their economic diseases may be different, but in each case the cure, if there is a cure, will be painful. Both the dollar and gold are telling us that a perilous adjustment in currencies and in real economies lies ahead.


Black Blade: Interesting article and it nails down the case for Gold. As I have said, politicians are intellectual pygmies - Gordie Brown is just another proof that makes my point. The outlook for Gold remains "Strongly Bullish" - using the rating system of a now defunct website gold analyst.

Aristotle
(01/06/2003; 02:44:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93535)
Hipplebeck, don't be a Simplebeck
I don't want to come across as belittling, but really! After reading your series of commentary I would be curious to know how guys like you thrive (or maybe just barely survive???) in the real world. It seems to me that the concept of barter is about the most that you can effectively get your mind around, and beyond that the full concept of money is alien to you.

Amost anyone willing to give serious study to these matters of money will eventually in time -- according to individual aptitude -- find their way out of the box you're still in. I recognize your handle at this forum from way back, so how else is it possible that you've failed so utterly to come up to speed in the presence of so much patient attention and masterful elaboration on these issues -- unless your elevator only goes up to the barter floor?

I see you talking about netting as though you understand that concept. Good! Let's build from there. Consider man's penchant for conducting his ongoing business deals while netting assets against obligations a rolling basis; now consider all of his counterparties doing the same thing. *BINGO!* you've got yourself a small glimpse of the great worldly phenomenon we call money.

The fact that it's always rolling... "netting-on-the-fly"... reveals that "conclusion of wealth" (to use Belgian's good phrase) doesn't happen (**and is meaningless!!**) WITHIN the realm of money. Money resides in the intangible world of netting streams of income and obligation. Only when you cash out some of your netted surplus to buy real service or property (such as Gold) do you exit the mental monetary world to expand your wealth position in the physical living world. To baldly say, "Gold is money," as you do is to openly declare yourself a babe in the woods in dire need of mothering. And yet you've long refused all here who would help you reach full stature. What gives?

Let me try one last novel approach that might reach you to cast light in shadowy regions were all other attempts have failed.

Way, way back in the good ol' days, say, when barter still walked the earth in its full glory, every national language had fewer words than they have today, but each certainly had its own well-known word for the special yellow metallic substance that we English speakers call Gold. In fact, we still call it Gold, even in today's fast paced times.

"Gold." It's such a simple and effective word. Why then -- if "Gold is money" as you say it is -- do you suppose every nation went and mucked things up over the course of time by introducing a secondary word (i.e., e.g., "money") to stand in as a rank upstart beside the time-tested and well-admired word "Gold"???????

Could it possibly be that through development and use of this elaborate scheme of "netting-on-the-fly" it transpired that "Gold," the effective word for a tangible yellow metal, was not an effective word for an altogether different thing -- an intangible system of account that nets billing and payments, thus leaving it up to the rich alone (with net surplus money) to "conclude their wealth" in the purchase of Gold?

I think some people don't understand the easy concept of Gold because they live hand-to-mouth from paycheck to paycheck. The concept of "clear title" is beyond their reach. These are the people who clamor loudest for use of Gold in currency because it's only then in their net/break-even world would they at least enjoy the ILLUSION of Gold ownership as it passes unownable through their hands. We've been down that (deadend) road before!!

There's no need for confusion here. To own it is to know what it is. Property! Wealth of Kings for those of us living in the plus column (net savings!!!!)

Gold. Get you some if you've earned it. --- Aristotle
Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 03:17:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93536)
The Kiss of Death � Gold Hedging
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BC4C9F464%2D3415%2D410A%2DAA63%2D88776992DC74%7D
Snippit:

Money managers Jean-Marie Eveillard and Charles de Vaulx vaulted to the top by staying one step ahead of their rivals, even when it meant having to create a new security to do so. They constantly looked ahead, getting out of investments that other gold funds went into, and stuck relentlessly to their value investment style. Early on, the fund made a conscious effort to invest in gold mining companies that don't hedge, said de Vaulx. Non-hedgers are more exposed to the movement of gold since they don't sell forward. They also looked to the hedgers they first avoided, such as Barrick Gold and Placer Dome.
As hedgers, these stocks hadn't done well since investors didn't think they could participate in the climbing price of gold. Finally, the fund bet on bullion itself. In September, the fund's board authorized the purchase of gold bullion. Within two months, the fund put 10 percent of its assets then into gold, buying 40,000 ounces at an average cost of $326.50 an ounce. Gold's now trading at $350. Looking ahead, de Vaulx sees gold reaching as high as $400 to $450 an ounce or more in the next year or two if investment demand for the yellow metal gains ground. Typically, the jewelry sector makes up the bulk of the demand for gold. "Today, there's very little investment demand for gold. But we think conditions are ripe for investment demand for gold to appear," de Vaulx said. "Investment demand is the key going forward."

Black Blade: Hedging is the "Kiss of Death" for miners now. Anyone with shares of a hedger would do well to sell and get out (go for the Gold instead). Even Gold Funds are buying into bullion ahead of hedged miners. Actually mega-hedgers shares have performed badly in the face of a stronger Gold price.

The Invisible Hand
(01/06/2003; 03:53:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93537)
Wake up!
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html$ 356 has been broken to the upside
silvercollector
(01/06/2003; 04:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93538)
Wow...354 breached!!
NY is going to have fun with this. So what will we have , the big smack or the big cover, exactly 2 hours we find out!!
Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 04:43:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93539)
Market Indicators
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures slipped into the negative, Gold and Silver soar, the USD is falling hard (currently below 102), oil and NG are falling off too on profit taking but likley to rebound sharply. The markets are getting the jitters over the Bush "Stimulu Plan" because of the total abolishing of dividend taxes. This will lead companies with actual earnings (not phoney baloney pro forma or operating earnings but the real deal) to do well and others to pay out earnings to the owners (share holders). The truly unprofitable companies that have been lying to shareholders about profits will be exposed (and there are thousands) and that could crush the indices further while select shares of companies that pay out healthy dividends will soar. It's hard to deny positive earnings reports when actual cash is paid out. We shall find out the gory details tomorrow when the prez sez what he is proposing.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 04:51:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93540)
Euro Markets Tank and USD Crashing
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Eurpean investors are getting ripped a new one this morning as equities are taking a beating. It should get "interesting" and "entertaining" as sheep get shorn and brokers and banksters aggressively work the phones in their respective boiler rooms. We shall watch the PM markets too as shorts will either cover or institutions will come to the rescue painting themselves ever tighter into a corner. Should get "entertaining". We just might soon see "swan diving brokers" over Wall and Broad in NY. Meanwhile the USD weakens.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 04:59:30 MDT - Msg ID: 93541)
Dollar Hit by Selling Wave as War Jitters Rise
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030106/markets_forex_3.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar hit a three-year low against sterling and brushed last week's multi-year lows against the euro and Swiss franc on Monday as signs of U.S. military build-up in the Gulf put the U.S. currency back on the skids. War jitters were heightened after USA Today reported the U.S. military had put more than 10,000 soldiers on alert for deployment overseas. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein raised the temperature further, saying Iraq was prepared for a possible U.S. attack and accusing U.N. weapons inspectors of carrying out "pure intelligence work."

Black Blade: Ya can almost hear that "sucking sound" as cash leaves US shore for home.

Hipplebeck
(01/06/2003; 05:16:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93542)
Aristotle
How very sad that you have come out in defense of the dollar.
I have plenty of gold and I attempt to share it and it's meaning.
You are confusing yourself. You believe you must accumulate paper so that you can accumulate wealth.
If we traded in the wealth of kings, you would accumulate wealth simply by setting aside a little.
You think you have great concepts that a poor little man like me can't grasp? Some one is living inside a small box, but it isn't me.
I strive for spiritual truth and attempt to uncomplicate the machinations so that honest men earn honest wages.
I understand derivatives, credit, capitalism et al completely. I see the forest because I am not fascinated by the trees. When you drop your desire for wealth at the expense of others, you too will see more clearly.
Sundeck
(01/06/2003; 05:56:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93543)
Post-Saddam Iraq: Linchpin of a new oil order
http://www.fpif.org/papers/oil.htmlSnips:


Post-Saddam Iraq:
Linchpin of a New Oil Order
By Michael Renner, Worldwatch Institute
Michael Renner is a Senior Researcher at Worldwatch Institute and a policy analyst for Foreign Policy In Focus (online at www.fpif.org).

....

"An unnamed US diplomat confided to Scotland's Sunday Herald that "a rehabilitated Iraq is the only sound long-term strategic alternative to Saudi Arabia. It's not just a case of swapping horses in mid-stream, the impending US regime change in Baghdad is a strategic necessity."


...

"Regime change" in Baghdad would reshuffle the cards and give U.S. (and British) companies a good shot at direct access to Iraqi oil for the first time in 30 years�a windfall worth hundreds of billions of dollars. U.S. companies relish the prospect: Chevron's chief executive, for example, said in 1998 that he'd "love Chevron to have access to" Iraq's oil reserves."

...

"Bush administration officials have, however, categorically denied oil is one of the reasons why they are pushing for regime change in Iraq. "Nonsense," Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told 60 Minutes� Steve Kroft in mid-December 2002. "It has nothing to do with oil, literally nothing to do with oil."

But oil industry officials interviewed by 60 Minutes on December 15 painted a different picture. Asked if oil is part of the equation, Phillip Ellis, head of global oil and gas operations for Boston Consulting replied, "Of course it is. No doubt.""


Sundeck:

Michael Renner provides some useful background (including many references) to the forthcoming highly-billed main event in the "biggest show in town" - control of world oil reserves and the price of oil. Given the complexity of ownership issues, the number and disposition of stakeholders and the value of the prize on offer it is hard to see this thing going smoothly... :-(


Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 05:59:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93544)
Investment tips to protect against future inflation
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=35656993&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:

All that glitters this holiday season . . . is GOLD! Long overlooked, and derided by many, the price of gold has soared to new five-year highs, trading at more than $340 an ounce this week. But why are gold prices suddenly rising? It's not just talk of war that has sent gold prices higher. More likely gold is up because the holders of trillions of dollars that Americans have sent overseas to buy foreign products are suddenly worried about the future value of the dollar. And with good cause. In recent weeks, at least one Federal Reserve governor, Ben Bernanke, promised that the Fed will do everything in its power to keep the economy from falling into deflation--even if that means running the printing presses to make unlimited supplies of money available to keep the economy moving. Those foreign dollar-holders are getting queasy as they contemplate that prospect--and they're moving their money out of dollars into gold and the euro.

Black Blade: Old Chicago Sun Times article. My outlook for gold remains "Strongly Bullish". The Euro continues to stomp the dollar this morning even though Gold comes off the overnight highs.

Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 06:18:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93545)
AT&T to cut 3,500 jobs and take $240 mln charge
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/030106/telecom_at_t_jobs_1.html
Snippit:

BEDMINSTER, N.J, Jan 6 (Reuters) - AT&T Corp., the largest U.S. long-distance telephone company, said on Monday it will take a $240 million restructuring charge as it cuts about 3,500 jobs.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows again as more "Phone Bones" are added. AT&T does its part to contribute. "Bone Pile" growth should pick up now that the holidays are over. It is expected that unemployment benefits will eventually be extended but too late for over 2 million who have already exhausted extended benefits and more at a clip of about 95,000/week.

Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 07:58:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93546)
GATA Urges SEC to Investigate Morgan's Denial of Any Involvement in Gold Market
http://library.northernlight.com/FC20030106200001113.html?cb=229&dx=1006≻=0#doc
Snippit:

DALLAS, Jan 6, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee has urged the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s denial of any exposure to changes in the price of gold. GATA's appeal to the SEC was made today in a letter written by the committee's consultant, James Turk, editor of the Freemarket Gold and Money Report. Turk's letter provided evidence suggesting that gold loans may have financed Morgan Chase's support for bankrupt Enron Corp. Further, Turk noted, even while Morgan Chase is denying any involvement in the gold market, the firm has registered more than $40 billion in gold derivatives exposure in its filings with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Last week Morgan Chase CEO William Harrison and General Counsel William McDavid complained of a persistent "rumor" that the firm was involved with gold, denied such involvement, and said the firm had asked the SEC to investigate the rumor's origin.

Black Blade: Food Fight! Actually the SEC won't do a thing. They can't even bust the top dogs at Enron and WorldCon. It makes good copy though and shines a little more light on the cockroaches.

MAHENDRA
(01/06/2003; 07:58:24 MDT - Msg ID: 93547)
World & Financial prediction for January 2003, WATCH GOLD SHARES
JANUARY 2003 PREDICTIONS


I do wish everybody a happy and prosperous new year, it is my hope and
prayer that the year will pass on peacefully. Once again I would like to
remind everybody that my prophecies and predictions have no personal
feelings, likes and dislikes with any country religion or person, I just
predict what I see in my astrological charts.


WAR


When we pronounce this word 'War', it vibrates negatively to us and fills
the surrounding environment with a horrific fear. Nobody likes to enter into
war. Politicians they are very important people for community, society,
region, county and whole world. Peace and war is in their hand, so they
should give-up negative thoughts of power and ego because this can create
havoc in the world. Planet forces us to make decisions but if we come to
know well in advance then we can divert destiny (avoid bad things).


Mars is the owner of war. From 7th January 2003 it is entering in the blood
sign, which is a sign of war, so I would say that any time from 7th January
I clearly see in my vision as well as in my astrological calculations that
USA will attack Iraq. This war will last for 29 days and George W. Bush
might succeed in removing Saddam Hussein from power. Currently Saddam
Hussein is in a bad period cycle which will end on 21st April 2003, so, if
George W. Bush does not succeed in removing Saddam from power, then he will
rule Iraq for many years and I see him rising for many years.


As I last predicted, many innocent people will die in this war, and many
countries will go against USA. I pray that Israel should not involved and
take active part in this war otherwise in the future coming time, Israel
will be in problems with attacks from the Islamic countries and USA will
have less time to protect them.


There will be some good news in the months of May or June, 2003 for Israel
and Palestine peace agreement. I will be watching carefully. I pray for
peace and no innocent killings by suicide attacks and killing in the name of
JIHAD.


MIDDLE EAST


January 2003, will be the worst month for the Middle East. There will be no
peace and there will be a lot of suicide attacks from Palestine. In
Palestine there will be arrests on key people and many important or key
people will be killed. In the month of January 2003, Israel tanks and
military will surround Palestine air force will destroy many buildings,
house and refugees camps. People will be trapped in horrible scenes. I
cannot write more because the scenes I visualize are horrible. Why don't
the world political and religious leaders come together for peace?


STOCK MARKET


After the first week of January 2003, all round the world the stock market
will stabilize. Technology, Telecom stocks will be on rising side. The Asian
(Japan, Hong Kong, India, Korea), European, South American and NASDAQ stock
markets will be on the rise. I do not recommend the blue chips and
pharmaceutical stocks for investment in the year 2003.


It will be celebration time for all the metal stocks in the month of January
because of the rise in prices of metals and big investments, which will come
in the mining sector. I clear see all metal stocks reaching on a new high
and their journey will start head toward to north. In metals I recommend
gold, silver, Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium and copper also diamond-mining
stocks should be on investors buying list.


GOLD


Many people complain that I give lot of attention and predictions on gold
since the last one and a half years. Here I want to clarify that I do not
favour gold but I just predict what I see for gold. In my vision I see gold
as a very unique metal that is why I am highly attracted to it (gold and I
are like followers of Guru and God) because there is no negativity with it,
just a feel of peace and happiness.


The main point is investors are always interested in the gold pricing, so I
am predicting that gold will continue to move up and in the month of
January. Gold will rise more then 12 to 15%. My next target for is $388 and
$412. Gold stocks will give maximum gains to investors in the month of
January. Many were asking me, why gold stocks are not moving up way gold is
doing? I am predicting just watch gold stocks in the month of January 2003.
Don't wait, everybody must have gold stocks in their portfolio (Jupiter is
saying). War will also push prices of gold up but I don't see that much
effect on gold because it will be rising on it's own.


SILVER


White metal and like I have already said a week back "give way to a white
bullish which is entering in silver, I clearly see the white bull now. In
the month of January 2003, I am predicting that silver will rise by more
than 14% and may up to $6.00. Now my predictions for silver are on the right
path.


PLATINUM


This metal is in my watch list. In the month of January, Platinum will go
crazily upwards by a rise of more that 10%. First target $700 and second
one $1200 The same will be for Rhodium and Palladium, they will rise more
then 100 to 500% in year 2003.


OIL


In December 2002, I predicted that oil prices will touch $28 a barrel, this
prices went above my predictions. In January I see a sudden rise in oil
prices which will go a two, three or four years high although I do see a
sudden drop in prices by 9% in any one week of January otherwise, the
overall the month of January will be a rising month for oil. Oil will remain
very Volatile because of USA-Iraq and Middle-East war.


COFFEE


Coffee prices will have a sudden rise from 16th January 2003. This sudden
rise will give relief to coffee traders who have been stuck in the coffee
trade for a long period.


COPPER


I am recommending investment in copper just for the next 45 days. The
prices can rise by more that 20 to 25% but then after the prices will
collapse.


CURRENCIES


From 7th January 2003, South African Rand will start moving down. In the
Month of January the dollar will gain against the Japanese Yen, Swiss frank,
Canadian dollar. And against major currencies (Euro, Pound) will remain
stable. My advise is: Do not make any speculations or decisions on
currencies trading because all technical calculations on currencies will go
wrong and it will be very confusing so this area should remain untouched.


EVENTS


In the month of January there will be a lot of small accidents and terrorist
attacks. Weather will play a negative role in the Northern part of the
world and many will die in cold and will be forced to change zones. People
living in this part of the world should be cautious because the cold will
bring havoc.

Detail weekly predictions you can find in my new book.

Thanks & God Bless

Mahendra Sharma

Christian
(01/06/2003; 07:59:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93548)
Question
With crop tree managment I can increase the value at harvest from $500 an acre to $25,000 an acre by improving the growing conditions for the trees to be harvested in the future and by improving stand characteristics which will significantly increase the value of the stand at harvest. The defective trees cut down have a fertilizer value of $60.00 per ton if I leave them there or $3.00 per ton as chip wood. Taking the chip wood out would damage a lot of good trees. I takes my about 5 days to do an acre because I end up cutting down at least 5000 trees to save 1000 of the best trees and on those best trees I spend a lot of time pruning. To me the cost of pre-commercial (sanitation) thinning is very justified and I have 250 acres of the 967 acres done. But I do have a problem. I can afford to work for free, been doing that for the most part of my life, but I can not afford the expenses of fuel, saws, vehicle expenses with out income. In no way will I place a loan on this property, and in no way will I try to try to sell my timber forward. I am doing the same thing on a 5000 acre piece in Russia but I have 4 families working on that piece for $120.00 a month. They get all of the defective wood cut down and what they do is bundle the branches of the needle trees and trade the wood with a bakery for baked good items which they sell at their retail (shack) outlet. The best income they have is the collection of tree seeds and export it to tree nurseries. On the 967 acre piece I did get some Federal Thinning money, but that has come to an end. It is very important to me to continue because I am at my most productive years and as I get older I may end up having to slow down. When I get old I feel I can manage to look at the improvements I made but I can not do the work. Also I do not wish to cheat nature and sell what nature created for nothing for less then what it costs me to produce. After all the property taxes on this place is $2,300 a year and going up. Anyone have any ideas on how to do it. Most trees on this 967 acre lot are 4" in diameter. On the 5000 acre lot they are 14" and really have no value because that economy is deader then dead.
a nation of one
(01/06/2003; 08:32:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93549)
the color yellow

An important contributing factor to a collapsing stock market is loss of public confidence. The increasing realization that persons previously respected are liars and thieves does not bring this about but only adds to it. Following the sheer joy of reassuring but paper gains, when stock averages fall 30 percent, feelings turn more sober. In this dark landscape make possible the general discovery that a weak fiat-currency policy has been newly though tacitly established, and a strong physical asset of inherent value is destined to lift off.
Genoo
(01/06/2003; 09:01:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93550)
Farfel and Blackblade are behind the curve...IMHO
http://library.northernlight.com/FC20030106200001113.html?cb=229&dx=1006≻=0#docBill Murphy and his story of GATA has been worming it's way into the media for some time now..but never before has GATA been reported on by the likes of Reuter's or the Business Wire. It is now a story that is out there and one that cannot be ignored in this era of the revelation of corruption. Enron is offered in comparison but I say that that was perceived more as one corporation doing in smaller corporations whereas Gata clearly refers to the very survival of the common man.

I would say look out for the likes of Gretchen Morgenson of the NYTimes interviewing the fiery Murphy...and then watch the sparks fly...I say that a major paper will find the story compelling. Then the SEC will not be able to ignore/avoid no matter how badly it might want to. Why you say...because it reveals the plight of the little guy, let us say, being taken advantage of by Mr. Big and obnoxious...the story being simply superior copy...and that is what sells newspapers is it not...
motown_gold
(01/06/2003; 10:23:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93551)
thoughts??
borrowed from another site, is this the real another , or just an imposter?


ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#200346:

Where are those who say $200 gold? What happened
to $300 ?MAJOR? resistance? Then they said $330
was wall. Again noone will believe $600 is time to
buy. ENOUGH of this foolishness!

Soon there will be ?announcements? of large buyers
of gold but will this be ?spin? to say many
sellers? Now is time to watch what gold does and
not hide head in sand. Your eyes don?t lie. This
is the beginning of the greatest transfer of
wealth in the history of all ages. What is wealth
and do you have it? The wealth of many millenniums
and of your great fathers before you will protect
your family now. As for me and my house gold is
wealth!
Gandalf the White
(01/06/2003; 10:31:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93552)
Sir Motown_gold's QUESTION !!!
IMPOSTER !!!
IF ANOTHER were to post on ANY Webpage, IT would be the USAGOLD Forum. We Goldhearts await his and FOA's return.
PS: the only item in the same word pattern was the use of "noone" !
<;-)
RS
(01/06/2003; 10:37:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93553)
motown's question re: ANOTHER
Clearly an imposter.
Gandalf the White
(01/06/2003; 10:40:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93554)
Thanks for the "Happy BIRTHDAY's" !!!
The Hobbits were not to let that secret out ! BUT, Thanks Lady Waverider and SIR RICH !! GREAT reading of this weekend postings. (And Sierra M. --- I've got ya beaten by just a few of these GOLDEN years, but I did not know it at the time, as my father gave me a Gold US$1 at birth.)
Guess what I have given each of my children and GRANDCHILDREN for a BIRTHday present ?
<;-)
balzac
(01/06/2003; 10:49:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93555)
DERIVATIVE EXPLOSION
PAST POSTSHere we are at $354 so what happened to the much touted
derivative explosion that was so often debated at this forum.

Was I being misled by some of our leading informants or was this just goldbug spin.

Balzac
Belgian
(01/06/2003; 11:10:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93556)
@ Sundeck :# 93543 > Worldwatch Institute
Most of these worldwatchers have a rather narrow sight from a frog-perspective : Yes, there are many different aspects on the Iraq regime change. And for us, Gold-Advocates, it are the repercussions on Saudi Arabia (BIS-member) that are of utmost importance. It is no coincidence that Turkey is on some heavy shuttle-diplomacy into the region. Turkey that is jockying between the US (financial aid) and Euroland (EMU membership) as a bridge between Euroland and the ME (Saudi Arabia in particular).

The final outcome in the ME will have to result in a partition of spheres of influence between the US ($) and Euroland (�) dansing around the oil-reserves.
That's why, one will encounter many different feelings about the regime-change in Iraq, depending on who's looking at it.

The regime in Saudi Arabia is generally percepted as weakening and boiling. If something dramatic should happen in SA (revolution-POO explosion), the US is going to be blamed for it and not in the least by American citizens themselves.

We, Goldphiles, must look at the events overthere against the background of the OIL > GOLD > US$ - BOND !
Is it a coincidence that the euro, together with Gold is strengthening in the runup to the Iraqi invasion ???
Is the BIS (through euro) now in control of Gold AND Oil, rather than the Rothshields ? Why isn't the dollar profiting from the perspective of US-dominance/full control in the ME and its oil-reserves ??? Things have changed !

Can CBs stop leasing Gold exchange reserves without rising lease-rates ? Has the forward sale of 3,000 tonnes underground Gold, reached its maximum ? Is the maintainance of the paper-gold-market (LBMA) at its end with POG shooting through 360$/oz ? We must not forget that these 3,000 tonnes still have to be mined and delivered ! Any decline in goldmining could have catastrophic consequences for the POO ! If the rand (AUS$) appreciates too much...miningprofits (and output) might even decline and contracts cannot perform.

What if China/Japan drive POG too high too fast with physical uptake ? With a clear rising POG now, less private goldholders will be willing to put their physical in possession at risk for speculative purposes. Increasing scarcity !

According to Another #60253, Saudi Arabia has been taking 600 tonnes per year since 1990 ! India with no oil-revenue is taking 800 tonnes a year. This high POO and relative low POG gives room for higher yearly uptake (wealth-conclusion).

When the bulk of available physical Gold is tightly stored in those wealthy fists...something else of value must serve the flow of oil...the euro...perhaps ?

Aristotle
(01/06/2003; 11:35:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93557)
Hipplebeck on money: Two questions
#1) Would you single-handedly deny all of your fellow mankind access to credit and shut down their ability to borrow if creditworthy? (i.e., no home loans, no business loans, no car loans, no student loans, etc.)

#2) Bullion banking. Thumbs up or thumbs down? (Do you approve or disapprove of these operations, including Gold loans?)

Related bonus question: Would you knowingly deface your neighbor's private property?

Thanks in advance for giving these your full attention.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
steady
(01/06/2003; 11:52:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93558)
guess @ birthday present
u gave the grandkids a copy of lord of the rings!
Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 11:54:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93559)
Natural Gas Industry Update
http://170.12.99.3/researchpdf/iEne010303b_1050.pdf
EIA Reports 123 Bcf Withdrawal

The EIA reported a 123 Bcf withdrawal, which was smaller than the Street's expectations of a 129-135 Bcf withdrawal and our estimate of a 140-150 Bcf withdrawal.

♦On a normalized, weather-adjusted basis, this week's withdrawal implies that the market is about even relative to last year, however, do not forget the impact of the holidays on consumption last week relative to last year on a weather-adjusted basis.

♦The near-month (February) contract is trading up $0.03 intraday on the EIA's report at $5.28/MMBtu.

♦NOAA has forecasted 163 degree days for the week ending January 3, 2002. If the forecast is accurate, we expect next week's EIA report to show a withdrawal in the 70-90 Bcf range, taking into account the holiday week.

♦We continue to believe the natural gas markets are poised for a major supply shock this winter, the beginnings of which are only just beginning to be reflected in prices. As such, we remain extremely bullish on natural gas prices.

Black Blade: Note the table showing vastly lower storage levels (US and Canadian), and more winter temperatures have been lower than last year with forecasts of lower temperatures later this next week. It looks like another energy crisis is in the works.
CoBra(too)
(01/06/2003; 12:05:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93560)
A recent Essay by my favorite Gold Advocate -
Ferdie Lips, of Gold Wars fame, has dissected the stupidity of the SNB's Gold sales - "Freedom is lost in small Steps".

For my own good I will only quote what I believe is a crucial and lastly detrimental step to force Switzerland off their 40% gold coverage for the Swiss Frank.

partly quoted ...
"Following Switzerlands entry into the IMF in 1992, which forbids members to link their currency to gold ... half of the SNB's Gold (1.300) tons were to be sold (more than 600 tons already are sold).
The damages to the Swiss are not yet clearly visible, but like an economic B 52 bomber. the IMF has cut a strip of davastation into other countries' ecomomies. ..."

The IMF and possibly, the World bank as hatchet men for the Dollarization and suppression of nation's own currency and economic policies made the hegemony of the US Dollar as the "only" meaningful global reserve currency possible for so long. - The rather recent sirene calls - or is it cat calls - towards the BIS, with AG et al joining the board and the idea's of becoming supranational - another scam to prolong the scheme.

Well, it seems the ploy is over and the globalization - on Dollar terms - has been uncovered.

Time to take cover - with Gold - the only value proven throughout history ...

Had to cut short - got a call for dinner ... see u cb2
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/06/2003; 12:08:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93561)
Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutmore.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors
PRIMARY TRENDS

Just as the primary trend in gold is up as shown by our nearby
graph, the primary trend in stocks is down. If you diversify your
portfolio with gold, you not only gain by being in gold, you gain what
you would have lost in the stock market. Richard Russell, the
well-regarded long-time investment analyst who has correctly and
consistently forecasted the direction of both markets, says the stock
market and gold will cross in the 2000 to 3000 area
. Think about that
for a moment. What will that mean to your portfolio if not properly
diversified with gold? What will it mean if it is?

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/06/2003; 12:11:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93562)
International clients: Please take note of our NEW toll free Int'l phone numbers
http://www.usagold.com/phone.html
Implemented to help us serve you better! Give them a spin and let us help you with your next gold order.
Christian
(01/06/2003; 12:21:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93563)
At Stake- At Risk
Politicians and people around the world had better ponder the economic reality (calamity) sure to occur in most parts of the world, if and when foreign producers shut off their oil supply because of lack of a payment vehicle that has value. It wouldn't take much to turn many countries upside down. The possibility of no oil is enough. In 1973 Middle east war lasted 18 days and the OPEC oil crisis lasted 6 years and in the end the oil price doubled. Same happened again in 1980. The caspian sea 235 Billion barrel oil bonanza is now a possible 20 Billion barrel high cost poor quality oil that will be capped for a future date. The 259 Billion barrel Saudi Arabia find is now down to 70 Billion barrels of oil that is deeper and more costlier to get out. The Iraqi 112 Billion barrel oil find is now half gone. Iran still has 90 Billion barrels and they want to hold on to it. Iran has 812 Trillion cubic feet of natural gas and it wants to hold on to that. Then comes Turkmenistan that holds who knows how many Barrels of oil or cubic feet of natural gas. The Afganistan war had all to do with the pipline and that according to ITERA sources and Unicol (sp) is junked. The new pipeline route is now through Turkmenistan, Iran with a side pipeline into Iraq and then to the Persian Gulf. For some reason Saddam Hussein is not scared by George Jr... any more than he was scared by Bush's father. Outright, he praises acts of terrorism on Americans. In Saudi Arabia, the royal family is falling apart. Anti-U.S. fundamentals are ready to bring the royal family apart. The irony here is the Bin Laden Family is itself split apart. More and more these people want to keep the oil for themselves instead of selling it for money of no value. One of the biggest jokes I have heard is that the dollar is too strong. If you want a weak dollar be prepared to pay more dollars for what you buy, be it fuel, gold, housing, food or anything else for that matter. You want your paycheck in weak or worthless dollars. Out of curiosity how do you pay a debt be it weak or strong dollars when the amount of dollars in circulation is only a small percentage of what the total debt is. What is lacking is honest money, honest trade. Are we in the west entitled to waste fuel driving around for no purpose while others who produce that fuel can't afford a mule.
J-Bullion
(01/06/2003; 12:27:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93564)
Christian
HOw are you sure the Caspian Sea oil is junk, and there is only 20 billion barrels worth? My sources say just the opposite. Any where is there information that the Afghan pipeline has been scrapped. Again, I have heard the opposite, or why do we have an army in Afghanistan now (to protect the pipeline, and not any UN peacekeeping mission). Just curious if you have any facts to back up those claims.
GoldnSilver2002
(01/06/2003; 12:34:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93565)
354 may indeed be the magic number still
Yes we have heard much of the daunted 354 p.o.g,but i believe it was a close above 354.So far every time gold leaps over 354 in asia or europe it has been frantically hit down.As one writer pointed out,these magic numbers often take several(6 or 7) attempts to climb over.So far this looks like another attempt to send the gold holders selling into the awaiting hands of those far wiser.From my perspective gold is accumulating again.Rather than losing favour,here in canada it is gaining favourable media attention.What does the media here say?No resistance until 370 to 375 and possibly heading to 400 again.Just as the cabal tries to talk gold down,they now have a new tactic,let gold fly overnight,allow the herd to rush into gold stocks and then smash the price down.Just another demoralizing tactic.Until gold closes over 354,nothing has been proven or disproven in my books.
Aristotle
(01/06/2003; 13:06:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93566)
An appeal to others
Since he's failing to get it from me, would anybody ELSE care to explain to Hipplebeck how it is that I'm actually defending Gold at the *expense* of the dollar?

Somehow, he thinks I'm *defending* the dollar. Preposterous!!

Clarity. Get you some -- with a little help from your friends. --- Aristotle
Boilermaker
(01/06/2003; 13:08:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93567)
Christian msg#: 93548 Timber Stand Improvement
http://www.fnr.purdue.edu/inwood/timber%20stand%20improvement.htmChristian- I have about 200 acres of timber and have found good advice from our State (Ohio) Service Foresters. In general they recommend cutting, girdling or frilling of unwanted trees. In your case frilling might be the fastest and it can be done with a sharp hatchet and some herbicide. A 4" tree would be a 2 or 3 "whack" tree. You would have to check the quantity and cost of herbicide to get a comparison with what you're doing now. Also the trees are left standing until they die and fall down. You might lose some of the fertilizer value but you can't have everything. The link above (from my alma mater) has a description of the methods along with other info on TSI.

Good luck with the project, sounds like a lifetime deal.
Cheers,
Boilermaker

Christian
(01/06/2003; 13:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93568)
@ J-Bullion
I do not remember saying Caspian oil is junk. It has a high sulpher content, is of poor quality and cost more to get it out of the ground. The so called big discoveries have turned up to be small pockets of not enough oil to make it worthwile at todays cost. Most of these fields are for sale at a cost it cost to drill the holes. The original oil pipeline was to go through Afghanistan is cancelled because of the not enough oil to make it worth while. Also the oil companies Exon/Mobile, Texaco/Chevron, BP along with Gazprom (ITERA) decided that Iran was less risk than Afghanistan. Afghanistan has returned to fighting among themselves and no one is in control. Northern Alliance has gone back to its production of opium for the Bush Administration. The new pipline calls for a constant military presence to guard the pipeline. Thi new pipeline is shorter, goes through less mountains and more dessert, and most important has access to larger fields with better oil. American troops will be replaced with U.N. troops to guard the pipeline. Iran is for it- which to me is a switch. Since Iraq will be divided up and Iran gets a piece of it I guess Iran has less to fear of Iraq. Saddam knows how to make enemies and this time it will go against him even if Allah is on his side. The Europeans are pushing for this plan and the major oil companies are for it. The only one against it is Bush and Unicol (sp). Saddam will simply be allowed to rule a much smaller kingdom until his troops starve. He may end up holding some of his people hostage. Allah is great..?
Cometose
(01/06/2003; 13:36:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93569)
Balzac/354
In the alcove to the theatre that you are seated in , there is a fire breaking out ........you my witness the evidence of this fire because you may smell the smoke....of VOLATILITY.......and that Volatility may be seen by looking at the price of coffee futures in the past few months.....it is rumored that there is an inverse relationship between coffee and the dollar.....the CRB index is also exibiting this volatility as are the grain markets now , oil and metals....The theatre owners would like you to stay in the theatre watching their Feature Presentation as long as they can keep you in there....If they say nothing about the fire and they are able to extinquish it ..... you may not be bothered anymore by the smoke....Their methods are very crude in fighting this fire as they are trying to smother the fire with paper...lots of paper...They are also facing extremely bad odds as it seems gasoline is being added by forces beyond our view....There are different retardants that may be used for different kinds of fire......In this fire ....i am afraid that the firefighters brought the wrong retardant....Soon someone may come from the office into the theatre and warn you that You may stay at your own Peril ......or they may not send anyone to warn those in the theatre....If you wish to stay and take your chances.....in the Theatre of the Feaure Presentation....you might want to dawn a GOLD FIRE RETARDENT SUIT ....that is protection which is available to you today......from the fire that is growing larger in the ALCOVE..
Belgian
(01/06/2003; 13:42:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93570)
@ COBRA the second > Ferdie Lips
Aggghhhh those CB-goldsales...!?
Sir Lips is surely a nice chap and a fellow Gold-Advocate, most probably sharing our emotions. But....is he as obstinate as we are about Gold's future ? Here I have small doubts.
Ferdie was/is a Rothshield affiliate (banker) and a board-member of several (SA- AngloSaxon) goldmines !? Howhowwwww.

Why is this gentlemen so silent and superficial about "GOLD" at present ? A man of such a reputation and inside privileges must be able to bring much more Gold_Secrecy on the surface. This isn't happening. He isn't telling or even suggesting where those couple of thousand tonnes, CB-Gold (Swiss and other), have been sailing to.

Not one single ounce of CB-Gold has been sold for jewelry !
Monetary Gold (exchange reserves) is for monetary business (currency defense) only and NOT for distribution as an ordinary commodity for any industry.
It is here that Lips is dissapointing. Not in his general theories about Gold but about the real world of CB-Gold, today.

CB-Gold remains UNTRANSPARANT for the time being ! A certain faction within the goldmining industry remains very happy with this secrecy and misleading public little peep-hole. Lips is a former insider respecting the omerta wich is absolutely normal when one is involved in the business of ultimate WEALTH !

It is the understanding of the above that is pure evidence for *Gold_Wealth* still being sohhhhh very precious, AND important, indeed ! A call to look at Gold as Wealth and NOT as a commodity. A very good reason for NOT ecluding that a new Gold-Era might be very well on the horizon or much closer !

Wealth owners only hand over their wealth ...to other wealth owners. CBs are no different in their view towards the intrinsic might of their Gold exchange reserves.

Switzerland knows very well what it is doing with its Gold.
One day we will surely be able to connect the dots and see/understand "why" they did "what". For Gold...a vault is a vault !
Belgian
(01/06/2003; 13:58:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93571)
No subject
Cometose : Brilliant...simply brilliant explicative answer to Balzac. Bravo Sir ! Enjoyed it tremendously. Thanks.

Christian : Keep on posting Sir ! Please do. There's something in the air above you. And this time I'm understanding the bulk of what you are saying. Thanks.

Ari : Hipplebeck confused me also. But I can always hide behind the fact that I'm missing (mis-interpreting) his nuances because of my poor understanding of English.
Hipplebeck : I never heard Ari defending the dollar-currency. Please explain what went wrong. Thanks.
ElGordo
(01/06/2003; 14:01:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93572)
SPR not filling up
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&box=ad_box_all2&tag=energy∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APhnleBXMVS5TLiBEWashington, Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Department of Energy has deferred delivery of all 3.1 million barrels of crude oil due to be repaid into the nation's strategic stockpile in February to compensate for supplies lost as a result of a general strike in Venezuela, a spokesman said.

The deferral may include oil due to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve from the department's Royalty-in-Kind Program, in which oil companies pay the government with crude for the rights to drill in certain areas, Malcomb said. The deferred crude must be returned to the reserve by the end of September.

It's the second time in two months the government has allowed companies that borrowed oil from the SPR in 2000 to delay repayment. Last month, the department let five companies postpone paying back 7.8 million barrels of oil due in December or January.
Cavan Man
(01/06/2003; 14:08:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93573)
Aristotle, I'll run that gauntlet....
Dear Hipplebeck:

"Render unto Caesar what is Caesar's"

(I do)...CM
PS: What's left is the important stuff.
sector
(01/06/2003; 14:35:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93574)
@ELGordo The "Deferral" of SPR Crude Oil Deliveries...
...Seems Suspiciously Similar to the Barrick "Spot Deferred" Gold Contracts...that we all have come to marvel at since the government sure doesn't treat average citizens [Or speculators] with such largess.

If the government hadn't deferred those crude contract deliveries the parties would have had to buy the crude on the open market and we all know what THAT would have done to the spot price of crude oil.

So...the government has effectively announced that they intervene in the crude oil free market in order to suppress the price of a given commodity.

The situation is "Fluid" though since the Venz oil flow may be a bit more tardy and who knows what will happen once the Iraq war gets rumbling along.

The scam string keeps getting pulled tighter and tighter.
Solomon Weaver
(01/06/2003; 14:36:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93575)
Large Cap Gold Play Newmont beginning to get notice on internet chat boards......
www.schaeffersresearch.com/addinfoNewmont and Home Depot are both getting attention....POS

Schaeffer's 'Herd' on the Street Features PLMD, HD, and NEM
January 03, 2003 2:28:00 PM ET

CINCINNATI, Jan. 3 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's Schaeffer's 'Herd' on the Street features PolyMedica PLMD, Home Depot HD, and Newmont Mining NEM. A new daily feature available on SchaeffersResearch.com is 'Herd' on the Street. Every day, we'll focus on three stocks that are generating a lot of attention on Internet message boards. We hope this will effectively offer information on equities that are popular in the investing world and will be a beneficial resource for our readers. For additional information about this report or to have it delivered to you free via email every day click on the following link: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/addinfo .

(Photo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20020725/SCHAEFFERLOGO )

Schaeffer's 'Herd' on the Street:

SNIP

Newmont Mining:

Newmont Mining NEM and a number of other gold stocks are drawing attention after gold futures spiked higher around 11:45 a.m. eastern time today. NEM was able to move past resistance at the 30 level with the jump in gold. The stock has not closed above 30 since June 6. Volume for NEM is almost as high today as it was for the entire day yesterday. NEM's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio spiked higher after December expiration -- moving from 0.39 to 0.55. The current reading of 0.56 ranks higher than 86 percent of all those taken during the past year.

UNSNIP

Poor Old Solomon
CoBra(too)
(01/06/2003; 14:42:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93576)
@ Belgian Re- Ferdi Lips
But first I would like to take the venom from my CoBra(too) handle. It's short for two smaller miners (though with exceptional properties)I've been associated with for years, while too, of course means 'also' as the cobra handle was taken on another, while louder mouthed gold website.
To be fair, I wanted to make that distinction - anyway, you know now where I come from, though I can honestly state to have been a "gold bug" since the early 70's and may have learned a thing or two since then. So much to clarify my somewhwat obnoxious handle ...

Ferdi Lips, as you have correctly surmised was the founding general manager of the first Rotschild Bank in the early 70's in Zurich, when I've had privilege to meet him. He then went on to found the Lips Bank, a gold bank vs. a bullion bank, which he eventually sold due to accumulation of both gold and years, I presume.

And yes, Gold Wars is an exceptional and historical book on all facets of gold as money. Ferdi has also not stopped to educate on gold and has among others written numerous essays since - the latest was just published on Metropole Cafe - and is a much sought after speaker on the topic. His views are probably as accepted by 'insiders', as the findings of Venoroso et al are accepted.

Oh, of course, these kind of views were discouraged for so long and even supressed in the main stream media as being politically in-correct. Never-the-less, Ferdi and a few others haven't been silent, ever.

If you, Sir, find it disappointing I can only say you may have not been around for too long in the realm of gold and its true supporters.

Anyway - thanks for commenting and cheers to your overall insights - Servus from Austria to Belgium - cb2


J-Bullion
(01/06/2003; 14:53:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93577)
Christian
Your take on the oil situation in the Middle East is interesting. Are there sites that you visit to get this information, or are they private sources (friends in the oil industry?). Anyway, If the information is publicly available I would like to know what websites/sources you visit. Thanks.
Sierra Madre
(01/06/2003; 14:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93578)
REGIME CHANGE? yes!!!

In the U.S.

Sooner the better.

Sierra
Sierra Madre
(01/06/2003; 15:04:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93579)
Sir Belgian: I cannot let your remarks regarding F. Lips go unanswered!

It would be disloyalty to a friend, to allow disparaging remarks to be made, without standing up for him.

You need not worry about F. Lips, Sir Belgian. I know Mr. Lips personally and can vouch for his sincerity.

He is not holding anything back, in his book "Gold Wars" he states as much as he knows.

On many things, he is as confused as we all are!

He is 100% pro-gold, and no "ifs", "ands" or "buts".

F. Lips put up a prize for the best essay on Monetary Reform; the prize was awarded twice: Once to Reginald Howe, and the second time for Prof. Antal E. Fekete. CH 40,000 from his own pocket, CH 20,000 to each.

Kind regards,

Sierra
silvercollector
(01/06/2003; 15:05:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93580)
What a great day..........
....a poke at 356, 355 and then 354.

Looks like the PTB won the day closing NY at 351 and change.

I'll call this the second crack at 354/355.
Cometose
(01/06/2003; 15:06:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93581)
regime change
AMEN
ElGordo
(01/06/2003; 16:00:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93582)
Fake Euros in circulation
AP World Politics
'Sophisticated' fake euros discovered by Greek bank
1 hour, 43 minutes ago



THESSALONIKI, Greece - A businessman was arrested after depositing 125 counterfeit 200-euro bills at a bank in northern Greece, police said Monday.


It was first case in Greece involving the high-value bank notes, normally avoided by forgers because their advanced security features.


Police said the 47-year-old man � who was not named � was arrested, and two of his business associates had been questioned. All three men denied any knowledge of the money being fake.


Authorities who examined the money described its production as sophisticated.


The euro is potentially attractive to forgers because it is used in 12 European Union (news - web sites) countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.


Most previous cases of forgery in Greece have involved 50-euro bills.


Security features on the high-value notes include foil strips, holograms and color-shifting ink.
_____________
Sector that was a good analysis of whats happening with SPR.

I hear the Canadian Guv sold gold a couple weeks ago to buy Euros.
Whatever gets sold is bought in Asia.
Don't take any wooden Euros ! lol
ElGordo
(01/06/2003; 16:10:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93583)
China issues Olympic coins
The People's Bank of China (PBC), the central bank, announced in Beijing Friday that a set of gold and silver coins will be issued on December 28 to mark China's success in its bid for the 2010 Shanghai World Expo.

The coins, which include a gold coin and a silver coin, are legal Chinese currency, said the PBC.

The front designs of the gold and silver coins are the same, featuring the logo of China's bid for the 2010 Shanghai World Expo with Yulan flowers dotted around it. The designs also include the full name of China and the time of issue.

The gold coin has the design of a golden key and a flying pigeon on its back, while the back side of the silver coin features the image of Shanghai's Oriental Pearl TV tower and fireworks. Both the gold and silver coins have the coins' denomination on their back sides.

The gold coin is round-shaped and contains half an ounce of pure gold, with a face value of 200 yuan (about US$24.2). A total of 5,000 gold coins will be issued.

The silver coin is also round-shaped and contains one ounce of pure silver, with a face value of 10 yuan (about US$1.2). A total of 50,000 silver coins will be issued.

(Xinhua News Agency December 28, 2002)
____________
Not many coins but good publicity.
Belgian
(01/06/2003; 16:11:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93584)
Sierra Madre and Cobra II
It wasn't my intention to cast any doubt on the absolute sincerety of Sir Lips. But as a critical Gold-student, I want to question, analyse and yes, even be politely provocative. Ambitious students have the audacity to take a critical but respectful stance against "authorities" such as Sir Lips (and others). May I remind you about Another and FOA, overhere, who have been offering us through M. Kosares an *** enormous *** amount of deep insights that remain "totally" unspoken for by much (if not all) other Gold-authorities. That reality, remains extremely confusing to me and I'm still searching for the main reasons why this is so. I was expecting from you both (or other Gold War-readers) some Lips arguments that would neutralize my constructive criticism about Lips's reservations.

For many, many years, South African Gold has transited through Switzerland. Isn't it normal that I suppose Sir Lips knows more about the who's and why's of these Gold transits and consequently giving some leads of major importance. The more that Bazel is the Swiss city where the BIS-people come and go and a Rotshild banker (FL), in love with Gold, might have found a way to introduce himself into the mighty monetary temple. Lips must surely have been close to the Oppenheimer family and therefore close to Gold secrets (Swiss goldsales and other). These suggestions of mine contain no negative undertone or whatsoever.

Yes, I have studied Antal Fekete's lectures as well. But the honorable professor never took one second of his time to pay some attention to any of A/FOA's insights. Maybe I'm biased and galvanized by the mentors here present ? I'll think about it...again.

Hope you understand my posting about Lips a bit better now.

See you tomorrow and thanks for responding, gentlemen.
Cavan Man
(01/06/2003; 16:28:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93585)
Black Balde or anyone....
RE:POOLast time POO was above $30bbl there were massive protests in Europe and here, prices went up near $2 in major US cities. Where I live, I have not seen the price at the pump move AT ALL for about 2-3 weeks, maybe more. Wherever I travel, prices for regular unleaded are modest relative to the crude bbl price. How can this be explained? TIA
contrarian
(01/06/2003; 17:10:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93586)
Using Gold as Collateral
Does anyone know...after you've bought your gold here, is it possible to "put it to work"?

In other words, use it as collateral to get a loan from, say, a Swiss or South African bank, in order to buy South African gold shares.

This is a strategy that Mr. Sinclair says he used to great success in the 70's.

If you had, say, $50,000 in gold, is this doable?

Thanks!
contrarian
(01/06/2003; 17:12:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93587)
addendum to Using Gold as Collateral
In addition, the other advantage to this is that you take advantage of the appreciation of the South African currency against the dollar.
neer-do-well
(01/06/2003; 17:13:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93588)
Christian
I contracted precommercial thinning jobs for many years with state, federal, and private parties. I doubt thier computer model "forest" will bring in the most bucks in the future, who knows what the market will be 60 to 80 years down the road. Trees growing closer together might not grow so fast but the growth rings will be tighter and the wood more dense. Specialty wood brings a high price and under most natural conditions ( with exceptions) trees can ghet really large right next to each other. Let it be.
Arcticfox
(01/06/2003; 17:15:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93589)
I imagine a few out there will find this interesting..
http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=biz.yahoo.com/rf/030106/economy_canada_reserves_1.htmlReuters
Canada sells gold, keeps shift into euro reserves
Monday January 6, 12:56 pm ET
By Randall Palmer


OTTAWA, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Canada took advantage of the sizzling price of gold last month with the sale of one-eighth of its remaining gold reserves, part of a long-standing drive to get a bigger bang for its foreign reserve bucks.
ADVERTISEMENT


A finance ministry official said the decision to sell was not explicitly tied to a specific gold price, but added: "When the price of gold is enjoying some lift, we may conduct more sales at that time."

Canada has been selling gold from foreign reserves since 1980, investing the proceeds in bonds and foreign-currency securities that yield a return which "far exceeds the return that the government gets on gold," the official said.

Finance ministry figures released on Monday showed that the government sold 83,399 ounces of gold in December, leaving its holdings at about 599,000 ounces. That is down from some 21 million ounces in 1980 before the gold sales started.

Gold prices climbed in December as investors, worried about the possibility of war in Iraq, looked for safe investments. The climb continued this month and gold traded at around $352 an ounce on Monday, close to its highest level in six years.

The finance ministry said it also maintained its practice of boosting its holdings of euro-denominated securities, bringing these to the equivalent of US$13.77 billion, or 42 percent of the total US$32.69 billion in foreign deposits and securities held by the government.

Just two years earlier, euros accounted for US$6.62 billion, only 23 percent of the total. The U.S. dollar share has gone down during that time to 55 percent from 75 percent. Small holdings in yen constitute most of the rest.

The government generally runs a "matched book" for its foreign exchange reserves -- issuing a global bond in U.S. dollars, for example, and investing the proceeds in U.S. bonds -- and consequently it does not incur foreign exchange risk.

The official said Canada's decision on which currency to use for foreign exchange reserves was driven by the difference between the cost of borrowing in that currency and the parallel return on investing it.

"We certainly feel that obviously the euro is one of the major reserve currencies of the world, along with U.S. dollars and yen, and that's why it's one of the three eligible currencies for us," the official said.

"But we don't change the proportion, say, of euro relative to U.S. dollar because we've changed our view on how the euro's going to perform relative to the U.S. dollar or on how we view the currency necessarily."

Ten Bears
(01/06/2003; 18:02:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93590)
Christian #93548
My tribe has a small investment in Southern pine forests. Our consultant said the most we could expect in current dollars would be about $4K per acre for mature trees (20 to 30 years). I understand that you are in the far Northeast; Maine?...I am curious about the $25k per acre...what type of trees? We might want to diversify to that area, or change consultants. Enjoy your posts. Thanks... Tenbears.
sector
(01/06/2003; 18:05:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93591)
@CavenMan Price at the Pump
$1.42 down hereabouts but the mover is......those oil shorts who don't have to deliver back to the SPR until September 2003. Even then, the government may just keep deferring the shorter's deliveries out to infinitely as the government seems to have done with Barrick's gold deliveries.

The reason POO fell a bit today seems to me was those same shorts taking on even more short positions. They are in reality agents of the government, selling the SPR. Their take is the transaction fee both ways.

Black Blade is the expert on down streaming stuff [And everything else energy wise] so he is the man for the pump price dynamics.



Arcticfox
(01/06/2003; 18:12:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93592)
Just about sums it up for me..
"In addition to the government's borrowing needs, which are running close to $500 billion every seven months, the US is also borrowing $500 billion annually from overseas investors to finance its longstanding trade deficits. If that isn't enough to scare you, the money supply as represented by M3 grew by over $500 billion last year. We are now expanding the money supply by over half a trillion a year, the government is borrowing over half a trillion a year, and we are borrowing half a trillion a year to finance our trade and current account deficits. Something is wrong here and it is surprising that Washington and Wall Street see nothing wrong with these facts."

Jim Puplava
Jan. 6, 03
Chris Powell
(01/06/2003; 18:27:24 MDT - Msg ID: 93593)
National Public Radio's nightly business program leads with GATA
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1374GATA's Murphy and Turk interviewed on National
Public Radio's nightly business program:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1374

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
erayboy
(01/06/2003; 18:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93594)
IRAQ Ground War Has Begun
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/01/05/1041566310159.htmlGround unit incursions - "duplicitous".
R Powell
(01/06/2003; 18:43:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93595)
Christian // cordwood and coins// waves and chickens
It sounds to me as if your clearing is basically the way I used to cut cordwood, leaving the best to grow for sawmill lumber. Sell the firewood, removing it over frozen winter ground to limit damage. Yes, you'll need to cut in some roads, you can not make an omlet without breaking some eggshells. This will more than pay the bills. Perhaps you could list firewood prices in greenbacks, in gold coin and in silver coin with a slight discount for coins. This unusual discount would spread the word of your business faster than advertising and save the cost of the ads.

The Elliot Wave followers claim that we "hit" their target number today and now POG retracts downward. I certainly hope there aren't too many of these wavers that now sell causing a self-fulfilling prophecy. Perhaps we should start a cult of Rhode Island Red Chicken Entrail Readers (RIRCER) always predicting sideways chart movement in POG EXCEPT when the Wavers shout "down movement". Then we'll scream "gold to da moon" to flood the market with RIRCER buyers thus counteracting the Wave sellers.
BTW, the RIRCER prediction can not always be up because we'll need the flood of buyers awaiting the change from "sideways" to "moonshot" to fight off the wave. Anyway, the Wavers say down from here. We watch together.
Rich
Christian
(01/06/2003; 18:54:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93596)
@ J-Bullion + @ neer-do-well
1st- I keep my sources private, there is so little news you can trust. Example most people think Russia is a country just like the USA. In reality the USA is a corporation owned by the FED, and so is Russia, and by the same FED. People say we have the right to private ownership. Bull- All assets are owned DTC, 55 water street, new york city, New York. Same is true in Russia. Here I can buy land in person and in Russia the trick is to make yourself an entity and a co-op to the state. The truth is in both countries my ownership rights are really lease rights. The dollar in my pocket is not mine. The one in your pocket is not yours. ITERA like Carlyle is an entity with many entities within that entity. And like Carlyle they will bring an entity within that entity public, run the stock to the moon and then into the ground and make money both ways. There is more then 30 companies now listed on the pink sheets that used to be on Nasdaq that were privately owned by Carlyle and 4 of those went over $70.00 a share to pennies in less then 3 years. I call them story stocks. When the dot.com stock were hot some beat down gold companies renamed themselves as dot.com companies with some success with a dot.com story. ITERA has over 200 companies under its umbrella and it will sell information for money (consulting they call it) and many (most) of these companies have no money, no credit, no recognition, etc but they do have a web site and many will e-mail their going ons every day. Some Canadian dead gold companies are doing the same thing in an effort to get some kind of recognition. 2- @neer- do- well I agree that trees can get large growing right next to each other. To me precommercial thinning does not work. What I do is Sanitation Thinning. I simply cut the junk I do not want. I want oak, sugar maple, white ash, white or austrian pine, spruce, will accept a balsam fir as a christmas tree, but don't want poplar, the dead or die-ing (sp) beech and any tree that does not have good form. I have at least 1200 trees left standing when I'm done. Still to crowded but growth rates triple- both height and in diameter. Have been able to grow seedlings to sell from seed on the thinned acerage. Also have a large area where bluberries are growing. Sold some wild blueberry plants and will expand on that and the same with tree seedlings. Pulled 5000 tree seedlings this fall.----Sure wish I had a place to store my operating money. Presently at IngDirect earning 2.25%
knotakare
(01/06/2003; 19:35:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93597)
F. Lipps and his book Gold Wars
This book is an act of amazing courage, as Mr. Lipps has written a book about money, philosophy, hope and fair dealing. It is a book for those who would embrace a stable money system, and peace and freedom.

The reason this book is such an act of courage is because the west's bankers, economists, internationalist socialists, transnational corporations and the Bush/Blair/ War Empire see these ideas as a heresy, to their power and plans.

I am not going to write a book review, you will just have to read it for yourself. It is a very persuasive and powerful message. My Lipps makes the repeated connection in his book between gold ownership (by individuals and nations) and freedom.

He also addresses the contiversial issue, of how much of the Swiss people's gold reserves were extorted from them by the ruthless authorities throughout the US, Isreal and England.

Mr. Lipps book has the tone of the patriot, and the revolutionary. His ideas are powerfull and true, but they do fit into the schemes of the internationalists and the Bush Crime/War/New World Order system. These ideas will have to be discovered by some future generation.
physicalman
(01/06/2003; 19:43:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93598)
Ten Bears-Christian-then others
I work in the southern forestry industry and the prices that are being quoted seem to be from a few years ago. The only way to mature a southern loblolly stand in 20-30 years is with an extensive herbicide application program and most of that timber is unsuitable for structural saw timber. Most stands are now netting 850 to 1400 dollars an acre. There are ways to increase income on timberlands in the south (note: southern yellow pine is now being planted in Kentucky, Virginia, Maryland, West Virginia and Ohio)
1: on a fresh clear cut plant 900 seedlings per acre instead of 485 to 685
2: thin for plup at 12 to 13 years-half of stand this helps pay for spraying programs in the first year and gives income twice as quick even though it is only a few hundred an acre
3:thin again for plup at 22 years-2/3's of remaining stems this leaves about 110-140 trees per acre, depends on the mortality rate over the years. This allows the canopy to open up and lets you naturally reseed the stand, but not so much that you ruin the saw timber values by allowing branches to form on the lower parts of the remaining trees. The savings from replanting: 20-35 per acre hand planting and 35-47 an acre for hybrid seedlings plus 75 an acre for aerial site prep spraying and 45-50 an acre for herbaceuos spraying the next spring.
4: Lease the lands hunting rights. This brings 5 to 8 dollars an acre per year and pays most, if not all of the RE taxes.
5: Final harvest-29 to 34 years. This is near the peak time to get top dollar for saw logs. By thinning twice and eliminating competition for water, nutrients and sunlight in a controlled manner at 1/3 and then 2/3 life span the growth rings are tighter in the inner 2/3rds of the tree and double its strength. If you wait till 37 years of age (45 years in the northern planting areas) half of the trees could be sold for poles, thats where the big money is.
As for the northern spruce and firs of upstate NY and Maine by not thinning too much artificially and allowing for a tighter growth ring those trees are very desirable for poles and logs for home construction. In fact, thick stands of northern spruce do bring 17 to 30 thousand an acre for log home building.( but if we have a long economic downturn it will become a buyers market)
As for the Russian timber a lot of trees are being harvested there right now dirt cheap.The siberian timber is going to China, Korea, Japan and SE Asia. Western Russian timber is going to domestic uses and Europe. This has been having an adverse impact on our domestic mills and our chip exports since 1998. With 1 billion hectares of mature timber in Siberia and average wages in the region of 40-80 dollars a month, most domestic timber producers are limited to growth in the domestic markets. With home construction leveling off and what i think is a depression in our future, timber prices will probably be much lower in the next 20 years than recent historical norms.
On the subject of the Caspian area oil i believe that Black Blade posted an article in the last couple of days about the estimated reserves in this area being much less than previosly thought.
**********************************************
Something to think about: With the vast exploitation of the planets carbon reserves in the last 125 years, did we only get one shot at industrialization?
physicalman
(01/06/2003; 19:55:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93599)
christian
Didn't see your lastest post. Yes oak and ash are much more per acre than northern spruce and fir. Also the white pine is a much higher price yield per acre. Here in Va. in the highlands just the triming of the lower branches on white pine for Christmas wreaths brings 400-700 an acre. Red oak, Black oak and White oak are bringing 1100-1300 a thousand board feet at the sawmill and that is with the furniture industry being in recession right now.
silvercollector
(01/06/2003; 19:59:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93600)
I wish someone would take a crack at my 93454 and put their money where their mouth is....
silvercollector
(01/06/2003; 20:01:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93601)
We have a full-blown potential for a full-blown war and we skate around the edges....
sector
(01/06/2003; 20:03:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93602)
Japan official says BOJ must act on 'emergency'
Yoshiko Matsushita Bloomberg NewsMonday, January 6, 2003

FUKUOKA, Japan Japan's next central bank chief must act aggressively to stem the four-year slide in consumer prices, a senior official of the governing party said over the weekend.
.
"What we're facing now is an emergency situation," the official, Taku Yamasaki, secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, told Bloomberg News on Saturday. "We need someone with a strong personality even if it's a little overbearing."
.
Yamasaki has been outspoken on the need for action from the Bank of Japan to arrest deflationary pressures. His comments suggest that the government plans to pick a more compliant central bank governor to replace Masaru Hayami, whose five-year term ends on March 19. Toshihiko Fukui, a front-runner and former central bank deputy chief, may have been too concerned about defending the independence won by the central bank in 1998, Yamasaki said.
.
"We don't need to have an agreement with the Bank of Japan to set the target if we can communicate well," Yamazaki said Sunday on the NHK television program "Sunday Debate." "I want someone who can harmonize with us as a new Bank of Japan governor."
.
Yamasaki denied a Dec. 19 Yomiuri newspaper report that said he had recommended a former central bank board member, Nobuyuki Nakahara, an advocate of inflation targeting.
.
"I haven't recommended anyone for the post," he said.
.
Financial Services Minister Heizo Takenaka and other top government officials have put pressure on the central bank to adopt an inflation target. Under such a system, the central bank would set a goal for prices to rise and pump money into the banking system until that target is met.
.
Falling prices have squeezed profits and made it harder for companies to pay debt. Japanese consumer prices, excluding fresh food, have not risen annually since April 1998. In December, Tokyo core prices fell 0.7 percent from a year ago.
.
"To overcome a possible crisis, monetary policy is the last resort, as the government has done pretty much all it can do now, especially on fiscal and tax-related policies." Yamasaki said Saturday in a speech in his electoral district in Fukuoka, in southern Japan.
.
Fukui, who worked at the central bank for 40 years and now heads the Fujitsu Research Institute, also opposes government interference. The central bank should not be forced to adopt an inflation target, Fukui said last month in an interview with Bloomberg News.
.
Central bank officials have argued that monetary policy has reached the limits of effectiveness, with interest rates near zero, and that the government must take effective action to clear the financial sector's massive overhang of bad loans.
.
"Tackling deflation is one goal," said Yukari Sato, a senior economist at J.P. Morgan Securities Asia. "But, ideally, the next BOJ governor will be someone who can cooperate on government efforts to accelerate bad loan disposal."
.
Yamasaki also told Bloomberg News that the current level of the Japanese currency "isn't desirable" because a stronger yen makes the country's exports less competitive. Exports represent a 10th of Japan's economy.
.
The yen rose almost 10 percent against the dollar last year, eroding the value of overseas profits for exporters. On Friday, the dollar traded at around �120.
.
"From a point of view of whether it's an appropriate level or not, I'd say the yen should be much weaker than now," Yamasaki said. "The current level isn't desirable."
.
This month, the government is preparing to nominate the central bank governor, who requires approval by both houses of Parliament. In practice, the decision will be made by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, whose party leads the coalition government.
.
The nomination will probably come before Jan. 20, the beginning of the next session of Parliament.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The War on Deflation begins.

Let the kilobars roll!
Cavan Man
(01/06/2003; 20:22:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93603)
sector
They've got to do something because, according to Bill Bonner, they can't possibly pour anymore concrete.
Genoo
(01/06/2003; 20:42:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93604)
the bottom line
With 3 mins to go today spot was down one dollar...it closed up $.90 at $351.80...how about that


Tonight gold is down $2.50 down under..so what... it's only NY that counts and really only the action of the last few mins. when you get down to it


I know that no nobody can predict what gold will do...but hey..spot is on a breakout big time.

Barbgold
(01/06/2003; 20:46:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93605)
Tongue partially in cheek
I am usually a lurker, but given the recent gold action, I believe that it is time to take a stand.

Being a female, I am partial to wearing Estee Lauder's "Dazzling Gold" perfume. I now believe that it is a necessity-alternated with "Dazzling Silver" perhaps.

It is time to rally the troops. Female goldbugs- listen up! Male goldbugs-rally to the cause any female who does not spit at your feet.

Enough said. I expect results.

Barbgold

R Powell
(01/06/2003; 20:52:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93606)
silvercollector (93454)
I grew up during the days when little grade school children were taught how to hide under a heavy wooden desk that was bolted to the floor when an alarm rang. These were called air-raid drills but I can not, now, for the life of me figure out how cowering under a desk could have saved anyone from falling nukes.
I now live about one half mile from a major Northeast Air Force base (Otis) and, while not forgetting Black Blades words for preparedness, I refuse to live in fear. I honestly believed while growing up that my generation would see the nuclear Armageddon. We may yet and it will grieve me that my children were robbed of their time. If it makes you feel better, add potasium-iodide pills, some weapons and more gold and silver coins to your supplies.
Perhaps the world will survive this time period during which mankind is the dominent lifeform. Maybe we'll even "evolve" through this period and remain on the top of the foodchain for a while longer. Honest money to restrain the fallible nature of governance would certainly help. I'd suggest something non-perishable and non-printable to base it on but with a floating numerical basis to allow the associated currency to expand, contract, and change "value" according to free market forces.
As for the nukes, progress away from such solutions begin with improving all social interactions, from common courtesy to international diplomacy. Again, as commerce (material wealth) is so innate in man's affairs, honest currency would help, if not so much to alleviate problems, but to prevent many of them from being created at all.
This may not be what you were asking with your question but perhaps it may help. As always, just one poor man's opinion.
Rich


The Invisible Hand
(01/06/2003; 21:17:59 MDT - Msg ID: 93607)
What happened to the free-marketeers?
Re: GATA Urges SEC to Investigate Morgan's Denial of Any Involvement in Gold Market
Gata has demonstrated that it did not start a rumor, but that JP Morgan/Chase has registered more than $40 billion in gold
derivatives exposure in its filings with the U.S. Office of
the Comptroller of the Currency.

Why investigate the denial of involvement? Who will benefit from this? Does GATA not believe in my namesake's action to solve this problem? Why bother with an investigation?

The filings with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency demonstrate that JPM/C is lying. What more does GATA want?
Chris Powell
(01/06/2003; 21:37:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93608)
The free-market guys are still here, working harder than ever
Invisible Hand, you may know that Morgan Chase is lying about its involvement with gold, and GATA may know, and the esteemed posters at this wonderful forum may know, but unfortunately that still leaves a few hundred million Americans, plus many influential participants in the financial markets here in the United States and worldwide. Being confident in one's own knowledge has little effect on markets; to have an impact, that knowledge must be shared. The free-market guys are working harder than ever and have landed a few tremendous blows against the bad guys since last Friday, but there is still so much more to do. JPM is still in the gold business in a nefarious way and still lying about it.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 21:57:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93609)
Much Ado about Nothing -- Whither the Caspian Riches?
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/120502_caspian.html
Over the Last 24 Months Hoped For Caspian Oil Bonanza Has Vanished With Each New Well Drilled -- Global Implications Are Frightening by Dale Allen Pfeiffer, FTW Contributing Editor for Energy

[� Copyright, 2002, From The Wilderness Publications, www.fromthewilderness.com. All rights reserved. May be copied, distributed or posted on the Internet for non-profit purposes only.]

[Ed. Note: The unfolding drama since 9-11-01 has been closely paralleled by another, perhaps more threatening one. Evolving more quietly, unmentioned and ignored by the major media, is a coming hydrocarbon energy crisis of civilization-threatening significance. Peak oil production is a reality, and it is happening now. What was once heralded as an oil bonanza in Central Asia -- and given life by ludicrous economic and political assertions insisting that demand always creates supply -- has proven itself to be an enormous bust. As Caspian reserve estimates have been continually revised lower -- from 200 billion barrels, to 100 billion barrels, to around 20 billion barrels -- the world has witnessed a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy toward belligerent and unilateral doctrines aimed at Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In the meantime, both politicians and economists perpetuate a dangerous fallacy which says that if you lock scientists up in a bank vault and give them enough money and enough demand, they can produce a hot dog with mustard and relish.

And conversion to hydrogen energy, as promoted by the Department of Energy, is an impractical myth; a palliative meant to calm fears rather than solve problems. Not until technolgies are made available which manufacture hydrogen at the point of use will hydrogen technolgies present even a viable partial solution for the critical challenges posed by peak oil.

As FTW has said for more than a year, the "war which will not end in our lifetimes" is proving itself to be a sequential war to control the last remaining oil reserves on the planet, especially those which have not yet peaked. - MCR]

Dec. 5, 2002, 16:00 PST (FTW) -- What ever happened to all the talk of a new oil utopia in the Caspian Sea and Central Asia? Word was that Caspian-Central Asian oil reserves would dwarf the Middle East.

Yet, in the year since the Afghan War began, it seems that all the rumors of Caspian riches have died out and the center of oil interest has returned once again to Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In his exclusive FTW interview
(http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/102302_campbell.html), noted petroleum geologist Colin Campbell states that exploration in the Caspian region has been very disappointing, with the discoveries being much smaller than predicted and much of the oil discovered being of poor quality.

But the Energy Information Agency (EIA) predicted that the Caspian region would contain in excess of 200 billion barrels of oil. So what is being said elsewhere about the results of Caspian oil exploration?

At a recent event hosted by the Associated Press and the Harriman Institute, Steven Mann, the director of the State Department's Caspian Basin Energy Policy Office stated that the Caspian Sea contains only 50 billion barrels of proven reserves, a far cry from the EIA's projections. "Caspian Oil represents 4 percent of the world's reserves. It will never dominate the world's markets..."1

Likewise, a study published in PetroStrategies last July stated that the Caspian Sea contains only 39.4 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. The study, conducted by consultants from Wood MacKenzie, criticized IEA figures for the region as being severely inflated and unrealistic.2

The study states that oil production from the Caspian region should peak at 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2015, but be considerably less if the region remains politically unstable. Future discoveries might result in a production plateau extending beyond 2020.3

Only four fields are expected to make up 57 percent of production by 2010. Of these four fields, three are located in Kazakhstan: Tengiz, Karachaganak and Kashagan. The fourth field is the Azeri-Chirac-Guneshli complex in Azerbaijan.

Total Azerbaijan reserves are estimated at 6.6 billion barrels. However, drilling activity in the area has been disappointing, indicating that oil reserves are likely dispersed in small pockets.4

The Tengiz field is estimated to contain between 6 and 9 billion barrels of recoverable reserves. In 1993, Chevron paid $20 billion to Kazakhstan for the right to develop this field, resulting in the TengizChevrOil joint venture. Chevron expects production at Tengiz to peak at 750,000 bpd by 2010. Azeri-Chirac-Guneshli proven reserves are estimated at between 3 and 5 billion barrels.

They are being developed by the Azerbaijan International Operating Company, and are expected to peak at 800,000 bpd by the end of the decade.5 With reserves estimated at 10 billion barrels, the Kashagan field accounts for 25 percent of the regional total.6 This area is being developed by the Agip Kazakhstan North Caspian Operating Company (Agip KCO, formerly OKIOC), lead by the Italian oil major Agip.

Though Agip has been disappointed by exploration, in June of 2002 they stated there might be as much as 38 billion in probable reserves yet to be found in the Kashagan region.7

This author has been unable to locate data on the proven Karachaganak reserves, but the literature would seem to indicate that they are probably a little smaller than the Tengiz reserves.

Even the EIA has revised its report on the Caspian region, stating that although it is not another Middle East, it is... "comparable to the North Sea in its hydrocarbon potential."8

Additional discoveries have been reported in recent months, most notably by ExxonMobil9 and Nelson Resources.10 However, none of these discoveries are of sufficient size to alter the picture presented here.

In contrast, ExxonMobil does seem to be growing more cautious about the region. ExxonMobil announced in June that it was closing one of its Caspian offshore projects, the Oguz oil field, due to the poor results of exploratory drilling.11

Abandon Ship

As this article went to press, there are several new reports about oil investments in the Caspian region. ChevronTexaco is withdrawing from the Tengizchevroil venture. Corporate representitives and Kazakh government officials have offered contradicting explanations for the failure of this enterprise.

The nominal reasons for the move involve financial disagreements between ChevronTexaco and the Kazakh government. Disputes seem to center around distribution and reinvestment of profits and taxation.

Obviously, there are some hard feelings between Chevron and the Kazakh government. But the contradictory explanations offered by both sides may indicate that -- beneath all the disputes -- the venture simply isn't profitable enough.12

The Tengiz field has proven very expensive to pump and deliver to market. Aside from the engineering problems of extraction and transport, Tengiz oil has a high sulfur content (as much as 16 percent). Disposal of the waste sulfur has proven to be a major headache.13

Furthermore, following on the announcement that Chevron was shelving any further development of Tengiz, Kerr McGee has announced its intention to sell off all of its interest in various Caspian region projects, including mineral rights in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea shelf and its interest in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (1.56 percent). The company explained that it is seeking to rid itself of inactive profiles and leave projects where it only holds a minority investment.14

Finally, Agip KCO is also reported to be considering a delay in developing the Kashagan oil field.15 BP-Statoil has already withdrawn from the project, leaving Italian Agip to soldier on in the lead role. The Kashagan oil deposits also have a high sulfur content, and the geology of the deposits indicates that the oil may very well be contained in many small deposits as opposed to one large platform.16

When all of this is added to ExxonMobil's withdrawal from Azerbaijan and Russian Lukoil's recent announcement that it intends to sell its interest in the Azeri-Chirac-Guneshli complex, one has to wonder why all the major oil companies are leaving the Caspian region.

What About the Pipelines?

There has been very little talk lately about the trans-Afghanistan pipeline. This project seems to be floundering due to continuing instability in Afghanistan, and diminishing interest in the region's oil prospects. It has also been reported that the Caspian Pipeline from the Tengiz fields to the Russian port of Novorossiisk has been hit by a number of high costs, including port charges, taxes, and tariffs.17

The one pipeline which has remained in the news is the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. Estimated to cost about $2.9 billion, this 1,090-mile pipeline network will link an existing pipeline from Azerbaijan to the Turkish Mediterranean Port of Ceyhan. To reach its destination, this pipeline will have to cross high mountain ranges and traverse territory occupied by disaffected Kurds, who may prove hostile to the project.

Critics have questioned whether there are sufficient oil reserves in the Caspian Sea to support the pipeline. It is also possible that heavy tariffs will render the oil transported along this pipeline uneconomical. ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco and Russia's Lukoil have all declined offers to join the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) construction consortium.18

The project did receive a boost when BP announced that the Azeri fields held more oil than previously believed and would be sufficient to fill the link. Following this announcement, ConocoPhillip's and French TotalFinaElf both bought into the project.19 However, even with the increased reserves in the Azari, the BTC pipeline would have to rely on exports from Kazakhstan in order to be viable over the long-term.

Kazakhstan has vacillated in its support for the pipeline. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev has stated that he believes the best way to transfer Kazakh oil and gas to market is via Turkmenistan and Iran.20 President Nazarbayev has at various times indicated that Kazakhstan would pledge oil to the BTC pipeline, but has backpedaled afterwards.

During a speech at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University in Houston in late-December 2001, the Kazakh president stated that the efficiency of the BTC pipeline was not proven and that oil companies would choose the export route for Kashagan oil. This speech reflects the opinions of the Agip KCO consortium, which believes that the Iran route is the most cost-efficient way to transport Kashagan oil to market.21

The Kazakh President finds himself in a very difficult position due to U.S. opposition to a pipeline route through Iran. Kazakh statements in favor of the BTC pipeline would properly be viewed as attempts to placate the U.S.

Critics believe that political factors are blinding the U.S. to financial risks in the pipeline deal. Not only would the pipeline deny Iran a lucrative role as energy exporter, it would also reduce dependence of Central Asian states on Russian pipelines. Furthermore, the pipeline would bolster regional economies in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. The pipeline would help alleviate Turkey's current financial depression.

A U.S. government source has stated, "The BTC has been politically motivated, more than any other oil project in the world."22

In light of recent reports of industry majors pulling out of the region mentioned above, it is possible that Kazakhstan will push for the Iranian route. Presently, Agip is the only major left in the country, and they certainly prefer the Iranian route.

Troubles with the Tengiz and Kashagan consortiums could leave the BTC pipeline without enough oil to even make the project worth completing. If plans are announced to transport Kazakh oil through Iran, it will be very interesting to see how the U.S. responds. There are already influential voices urging Bush to go on to Iran as soon as he is finished with Iraq.

Whether or not the project will prove viable, construction of the BTC pipeline began on Sept. 8.23 On hand for the start of construction was U.S. Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham, who touted the project as "one of the most important energy undertakings."24

One has to wonder whether part of the reason for U.S. interest in the pipeline is an effort to destabilize OPEC. The Lebanese Daily Star recently ran an editorial by Middle East Analyst Patrick Seale which stated that Arab oil is currently worried about the triple threat of U.S. imperialism, Russian and Caspian imports, and hydrogen fuel cells.25 It is to be wondered if Arab oil knows that the only portion of this triple threat which really has teeth to it is U.S. imperialism.

Spencer Abraham's Hydrogen Dream

The media was all aglow recently with Spencer Abraham's announcement that the U.S. now has a roadmap for making the transition to a hydrogen economy. Secretary of Energy Abraham announced the plan at the Global Forum on Personal Transportation held in Dearborn, Mich. In his presentation, he touted the line that hydrogen produced from renewable resources can provide unlimited energy with no impact on the environment. Secretary Abraham noted that the transition to hydrogen would be a long-term process, which will require the participation of both industry and government.

As a first step, in January 2002 Secretary Abraham, along with officials from the automotive industry and Congress, unveiled a FreedomCAR partnership to develop hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.26

The National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap is available on the internet in pdf form (http://www.eren.doe.gov/hydrogen/pdfs/national_h2_roadmap.pdf). This roadmap glows with positive energy. In all areas of production, delivery, storage, conversion and applications, the document beams about what we can achieve if we put our minds to it, but inevitably winds up by saying that we have a long way to go in order to make it a reality.

The document does mention the various challenges to each area of fuel cell development, but makes little of the obstacles and instead comes off sounding like a pep talk. Buried in the text, they admit "The transition to a hydrogen economy... could take several decades to achieve."27

The document speaks of wind, solar and geothermal production, biomass, nuclear-thermo-chemical water splitting, photoelectrochemical electrolysis, and bioengineering. But they admit that all of these processes will require a great deal more research.

The intention is to bootstrap the move by first developing small "reformers" that will run on natural gas, propane, methanol or diesel. But the authors admit that even this technology requires further refinement for improved reliability, longer catalyst life, and integration with storage systems and fuel cells.

The document also includes a short list of people who are in charge of various areas of development and transition. The list includes: Frank Balog of Ford Motor Company, Gene Nemanich of ChevronTexaco Technology Ventures, Mike Davis of Avista Labs Energy, Art Katsaros of Air Products and Chemicals Incorporated, Alan Niedzwiecki of Quantum Technologies, Joan Ogden of Princeton University Systems, and Jeff Serfass of The National Hydrogen Association.28 This team will ensure that the new technology remains firmly in the hands of the top corporations.

The document is at least 80 percent public relations. While admitting that in all areas there are serious problems to be overcome before we will be able to make a transition to hydrogen fuel cells, nowhere does this document take a serious look at the obstacles. Instead, this paper paints a pretty picture of our hydrogen future and leaves the details to future research and investment. So let us look at a few of the difficulties of developing a hydrogen fuel cell economy.

First off, because hydrogen is the simplest element, it will leak from any container, no mater how strong and no matter how well insulated. For this reason, hydrogen in storage tanks will always evaporate, at a rate of at least 1.7 percent per day.29 Hydrogen is very reactive. When hydrogen gas comes into contact with metal surfaces it decomposes into hydrogen atoms, which are so very small that they can penetrate metal. This causes structural changes that make the metal brittle.30

Perhaps the largest problem for hydrogen fuel cell transportation is the size of the fuel tanks. In gaseous form, a volume of 238,000 litres of hydrogen gas is necessary to replace the energy capacity of 20 gallons of gasoline.31

So far, demonstrations of hydrogen-powered cars have depended upon compressed hydrogen. Because of its low density, compressed hydrogen will not give a car as useful a range as gasoline.32 Moreover, a compressed hydrogen fuel tank would be at risk of developing pressure leaks either through accidents or through normal wear, and such leaks could result in explosions.

If the hydrogen is liquefied, this will give it a density of 0.07 grams per cubic centimeter. At this density, it will require four times the volume of gasoline for a given amount of energy. Thus, a 15-gallon gas tank would equate to a 60-gallon tank of liquefied hydrogen. Beyond this, there are the difficulties of storing liquid hydrogen. Liquid hydrogen is cold enough to freeze air. In test vehicles, accidents have occurred from pressure build-ups resulting from plugged valves.33

Beyond this, there are the energy costs of liquefying the hydrogen and refrigerating it so that it remains in a liquid state. No studies have been done on the energy costs here, but they are sure to further decrease the Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) of hydrogen fuel.

A third option is the use of powdered metals to store the hydrogen in the form of metal hydrides. In this case, the storage volume would be little more than the volume of the metals themselves.34 Moreover, stored in this form, hydrogen would be far less reactive. However, as you can imagine, the weight of the metals will make the storage tank very heavy.

Now we come to the production of hydrogen. Hydrogen does not freely occur in nature in useful quantities, therefore hydrogen must be split from molecules, either molecules of methane derived from fossil fuels or from water.

Currently, most hydrogen is produced by the treatment of methane with steam, following the formula: CH4 (g) + H2O + e > 3H2(g) + CO(g). The CO(g) in this equation is carbon monoxide gas, which is a byproduct of the reaction.35

Not entered into this formula is the energy required to produce the steam, which usually comes from the burning of fossil fuels.

For this reason, we do not escape the production of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. We simply transfer the generation of this pollution to the hydrogen production plants. This procedure of hydrogen production also results in a severe energy loss. First we have the production of the feedstock methanol from natural gas or coal at a 32 percent to 44 percent net energy loss. Then the steam treatment process to procure the hydrogen will result in a further 35 percent energy loss.36

It has often been pointed out that we have an inexhaustible supply of water from which to derive hydrogen. However, this reaction, 2H2O + e = 2H2(g) + O2(g), requires a substantial energy investment per unit of water (286kJ per mole).37 This energy investment is required by elementary principles of chemistry and can never be reduced.

Several processes are being explored to derive hydrogen from water, most notably electrolysis of water and thermal decomposition of water. But the basic chemistry mentioned above requires major energy investments from all of these processes, rendering them unprofitable in terms of EROEI.

Much thought has been given to harnessing sunlight through photovoltaic cells and using the resulting energy to split water in order to derive hydrogen. The energy required to produce 1 billion kWh (kilowatt hours) of hydrogen is 1.3 billion kWh of electricity.38 Even with recent advances in photovoltaic technology, the solar cell arrays would be enormous, and would have to be placed in areas with adequate sunlight.

Likewise, the amount of water required to generate this hydrogen would be equivalent to 5 percent of the flow of the Mississippi River.39 As an example of a solar-to-hydrogen set up, were Europe to consider such a transition, their best hope would lie in erecting massive solar collectors in the Saharan desert of nearby Africa. Using present technology, only 5 percent of the energy collected at the Sahara solar plants would be delivered to Europe. Such a solar plant would probably cost 50 times as much as a coal fired plant, and would deliver an equal amount of energy.40 On top of this, the production of photovoltaic cells has a very poor EROEI.

The basic problem of hydrogen fuel cells is that the second law of thermodynamics dictates that we will always have to expend more energy deriving the hydrogen than we will receive from the usage of that hydrogen. The common misconception is that hydrogen fuel cells are an alternative energy source when they are not.

In reality, hydrogen fuel cells are a storage battery for energy derived from other sources. In a fuel cell, hydrogen and oxygen are fed to the anode and cathode, respectively, of each cell. Electrons stripped from the hydrogen produce direct current electricity which can be used in a DC electric motor or converted to alternating current.41

Because of the second law of thermodynamics, hydrogen fuel cells will always have a bad EROEI. If fossil fuels are used to generate the hydrogen, either through the Methane-Steam method or through Electrolysis of Water, there will be no advantage over using the fossil fuels directly. The use of hydrogen as an intermediate form of energy storage is justified only when there is some reason for not using the primary source directly.42 For this reason, a hydrogen-based economy must depend on large-scale development of nuclear power or solar electricity.

Therefore, the development of a hydrogen economy will require major investments in fuel cell technology research and nuclear or solar power plant construction. On top of this, there is the cost of converting all of our existing technology and machinery to hydrogen fuel cells. And all of this will have to be accomplished under the economic and energy conditions of post-peak fossil fuel production.

Based on all of this, I submit that Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham does indeed have ulterior motives for his Hydrogen Energy Roadmap. First, I suggest that this distant goal will help to pacify the public once they begin to suffer from the effects of fossil fuel withdrawal. Secondly, this project will allow the elite to transfer more money from the general public to the pockets of the rich. Third, in the words of Karl Davies, this proposal will deflect a stock market collapse once news of declining oil production be
Cytek
(01/06/2003; 22:03:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93610)
Mr. Russell's Latest

Swap the Purple Cardboard for the Gold Stocks

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
7 January, 2003

Extracted from the 6 January, 2003 issue of Richard Russell's Dow Theory Remarks

Question -- Just for the sake of argument, let's say that 2003 turns out to be a mini-bull market year. If we do go into a mini-bull market, should we play it?

Answer -- Personally, I wouldn't. The situation is too "iffy." You'd be putting your hard-earned money into a bear market rally, which is always dangerous.

I'd rather put my money in an area where the primary trend is bullish. Which is where gold and silver come in. I've been advising positions in gold and silver for the past few years. I continue to advise positions in the precious metals.

Buy the coins, buy the gold stocks, buy the gold funds, but if you haven't already done so, it's not to late to take a position in precious metals. I think it's going to be a long and ultimately speculative bull market in the precious metals.

Gold has recently emerged from a 20-year bear market. After 20 year of going sideways to down, gold is despised, ignored, mocked -- and thoroughly sold-out. The majority of analysts and certainly the public don't understand gold. They've been brain-washed by central bankers who would rather produce and control their own fiat paper money. The central bankers produce paper currency, and they tell us "this is money." And for many decades a brain-washed public has accepted paper as money. But for how much longer?

Hey, I can take a piece of purple cardboard and tell you that "this is money." And if all the central bankers in the world agree with me, and the government tells us that purple cardboard is "legal tender" for all debts, then damn it, purple cardboard will be treated as money.

Until one day people start asking why gold is rising -- and why in hell purple cardboard is sinking against other nations' paper money -- then the trouble begins.

So say hello to today's fiat currency -- some people are beginning, just beginning, to ask why this junk paper should be called money.

Thought -- you can still trade your junk paper in for real money -- gold. And you can still swap your junk legal tender for stock in companies that produce real intrinsic money. They're called gold mines. Sounds like an interesting swap, don't you think? Junk paper for real intrinsic money that doesn't become worthless over time.

But why is this the time to make the swap? It's time because the word is out -- the Fed is manufacturing far too much junk paper. People are beginning to ask questions. And if people continue to ask questions, eventually the truth will out. And the truth will spoil the whole rotten central banks' scam.

The truth is that the dollar is not real money. You don't believe it? Then here's the test -- give me the definition of a dollar. The reason you can't is that there is no definition of a dollar. The dollar can only be described in terms of its relationship to other fiat money.

Oh yes, there used to be a definition of a dollar. A dollar used to be defined in terms of a specific quantity of silver or gold. But today, poor bastards that we are, we've got all our assets denominated in paper for which there is no definition.

The awful truth -- the Federal Reserve is pulling off the biggest scam in United States history.


Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
� Copyright 2003 Dow Theory Letters, Inc

Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 22:12:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93611)
Much Ado about Nothing -- Whither the Caspian Riches?

That last post got cut off, but it goes into hydrogen economy. In the process I lost the response portion I had written. Simply put Caspian Sea oil reserves are estimated at only about 100 billion bbl after having been revised downward over the last several years. Chevron has drilled several dry holes as have others and they have withdrawn a lot of investment. Lifting costs are roughly $8/bbl as opposed to Saudi's $2/bbl and the oil is of lower quality to boot. Caspian Sea oil is no longer considered to be the saving element for the growing need for "cheap oil". Many others have come to the same conclusions including Colin Campbell (PetroConsultants), Matt Simmons (Simmons & Co. Intl.), Daniel Yergin (Cambridge Energy Research Associates), and Kenneth Deffeyes (Professor Emeritus at Princeton, author of Hubbert� Peak, and former associate of the late M. King Hubbert at Shell). If you need to follow up on the eventual demise of "cheap oil" I would suggest that you reread my essay "The Rise and Fall of Hydrocarbon Man". We are running out of "cheap oil" for all practical purposes. However, I believe that the shortage of "cheap energy" is more critical than that of oil in the near term (electricity and NatGas). However, it is obvious that we must go to war to secure "cheap oil" for the global economy as without "cheap oil" the economy comes to a screeching halt. In the end this is what the war with Iraq is really about.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 22:23:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93612)
Re: R. Powell

Oh yes, I do remember "Duck and Cover" too. I always thought it was rather stupid even though I was just a kid at the time. I remember thinking of the pictures of shadows of vaporized people embedded into concrete in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and thinking "what good will this desk do?". I also remember the Civil Defense stashes of old soggy biscuits in dusty old corners in public buildings that the rats, mice and cockroaches wouldn't even touch. Those were strange times for sure. I also remember the Cuban Missle Crisis and panicked masses stripping bare local supermarkets and thinking why were these idiots not prepared for this eventuality before hand. Today it is less worrisome though there are other reasons to be prepared (unemployment, prolonged illness, shortages due transportation problems, natural disasters, etc.). People today are idiots and are not likely to survive relatively minor disturbances. That is why I continue to beat the drum about being prepared (though I was a Boy Scout many years ago).

Quite the memory - "Duck and Cover", hmmm...

Cheers!

- Black Blade
goldquest
(01/06/2003; 22:29:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93613)
Why The Gulf War Was Not In The National Interest
http://www.theatlantic.com/unbound/flashbks/saudiara/layne.htmAn article from July 1991. Doesn't appear that anything has changed much.
Gold Hill
(01/06/2003; 22:30:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93614)
physicalman re post93599
I burn white and black oak for cord-wood. Trees that are 2 to 3 foot in diameter at the stump. There is no market for them in the pacific north-west. Pine, fir and cedar are the only thing that I can market. I have a small woodlot-48 acres. I'm somewhat of a radical because I do believe in clear-cutting before replanting. Your number on seedlings per acre is right on. Then you've got to keep the deer and elk from destroying them. Yes Black Blade I did get my elk. As for putting in roads, property is of no value if you can't access it. When you do harvest, take the slash and create water barriers to stop erosion. After 20 years of trial and some errors it's worked for me. My new stands of timber I won't be around to see harvested but the satisfaction of planting, culling and caring gives me and my black lab Blitz pleasure every day.
Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 22:33:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93615)
Market Wrap Up � Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm
Spending Our Way to Deeper Debt

Snippit:

This policy of treating debt more favorably than savings is one reason why there is so much debt in this country. There is an abundance of corporate, government and consumer debt that is now reaching epic, even biblical proportions. As a country, the US is borrowing and printing over $2.5 trillion a year. Debt and printed money have been growing at double-digit rates since the mid-90s. This figure is growing faster and even larger and threatens the entire financial system. The financial system will eventually collapse from the weight of this debt or the US will turn into another banana republic as its currency becomes worthless. The problem goes back to the Great Depression where this country changed its economic course. We went from a society that saved, invested and had a strong manufacturing base to a society that borrows, spends, and consumes. It is one reason that economic growth rates have slowed down in this country during the later half of the last century. It is also the reason why the US has become the largest creditor nation in the world, absorbing nearly 80 percent of all of the world's savings to support our voracious appetite for consumption. We don't save, we don't invest, and we don't make many things anymore. Instead of saving we borrow money. Instead of investing in new plant and equipment, we buy other companies or merge with them. Instead of manufacturing things, we consume them. It is this kind of thinking that is making the recovery so fragile, the financial markets so volatile and the financial system so perilous.

Black Blade: A very good article tonight worth reading. Sure lays out why one should have precious metals as an insurance component in every investment portfolio.

Genoo
(01/06/2003; 22:38:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93616)
Re: Chris Powell's response... #93608 to Invisible Hand... #93607
Precisely bang on the money. We apparently need big-time media to promote/spread the truth.

Interesting isn't it..the task is how to successfully manipulate the media to pick up the story so that the general populace can realize/benefit from/the truth.

Which will be one of the few good things media has ever done..life is wierd eh......

On the other hand I suppose there is the ever so remote possibility that enuf light has been shed on the subject that we fly..anytime now...

THX-1138
(01/06/2003; 22:42:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93617)
Christian
Have you thought about getting extra money by leasing portions of your land out to hunters during deer season?

Plant some acorn trees in strategic locations around your property. Deer are attracted to acorns and you will have a good chance of getting a deer during hunting season.
Black Blade
(01/06/2003; 22:46:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93618)
Re: Gold Hill

Bagged an elk - you lucky dog! I probably could have taken a cow but I got greedy for a bull and before I knew it the season was over. I did get my deer and antelope though and bought some buffalo (steaks, roast, burger, and sausage) along with a couple of friends a couple of weeks ago. I still have a lot of partridge and a couple of ducks and a goose as well as a lot of fish in the freezer. I agree it is good to clear out a patch of trees for the critters to browse. It can work well for hunting season not to mention allowing young tree growth to get started disease free. The problem here on Government land is that old growth is no longer cleared out (logging or allowed to burn naturally) and now fire fuel build-up has led to many huge 100 year fires, bark beetle disease, etc. It's quite a shame that these city dwelling arm chair environmentalists are killing our western forests. But then they have the votes and influence in Washington DC. Cheers!

- Black Blade
slingshot
(01/06/2003; 23:09:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93619)
Silvercollector
Msg# 93454We skate around the edge for the future is unknown and may be terrible. My take on the war is even if we win in IRAQ and even capture OBL, his followers around the world will still commit acts of terror. How much of the world is drawn into this conflict will depend if calmer heads prevail. Those who just think that Iraq is the only objective in the war on terrorism are mistakenly wrong. Did you not hear we are seeking out the terrorist? How many reports in the news are of military buildup? Gold and silver are insurance. Hope you are at the right place and the right time when these acts occur. Playing the game is one of survival. I am sure for those who have been here for awhile, have made some preparations. Yes, the doomsters are out in force.
One thing to point out. If you could not get them to guard against financial disaster, how would you expect them to prepare against a terrorist attack? Am I nervous? You bet!
Am I afraid? No. I have done all I can and you can not cover all the bases. Do the best you can. I have no stock.
Out of debt. Silver and gold (physical),cash and listened to Blake Blade.

When I was a small child I did not want to eat supper. Instead I wanted to go out and play. My Mother made a fuss, but my Father said to me, Go out and play,but remember one day you will wish you had this to eat.

Has haunted me ever since.

Slingshot-----------------<>
Sundeck
(01/06/2003; 23:23:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93620)
Silvercollector 93454, 93600 and 93601
The possibilities that you pose in #93454 have an infinite number of branching outcomes. The possible branches change at every instant in time as new circumstances emerge and people with influence choose one course or another in response - or just get swept along by events. The future is not laid out in some grand tapestry where every stitch is predictable and purposeful, but is like a very complex game of snakes and ladders where people and nations roll the dice, venture forth, and take their chances...

So much for the general, what about the specific?...just a couple of your points for the sake of brevity.

1. Silvercollector 93454: "What if, Germany and Japan go into a further tailspin and what if the US mops up Iraq in a 'couple weeks' and oil goes back down to the low-mid 20's/bbl?"


Sundeck: The Japanese and German economies and financial systems are troubled. Few people back in 1990 would have predicted the ten year slide in Japan, and any who did would probably have done so for the wrong reasons. One conclusion we can draw from this is that, in spite of a somewhat smug perception that modern economic and financial gurus and governments understand economic systems, and can direct them to desired ends, in fact they cannot. The same undoubtedly applies to the US. The US administration and its central bankers have various leavers to push and pull, but they do not fully understand (nor can they) the couplings between the leavers and the course of the economy. Even if they did, they may not be able to "direct the vehicle" because of political pressures from interests vested in the broad status quo (industry, elected representatives and their constituents, foreign policy stakeholders, etc). Exemplary proof of this is presented by (a) the world record bubble that developed in the US stock markets during the late '90s and the Japanese stock markets in the late '80s, (b) the uncontrollable extended period of deflation in Japan in the '90s, still unresolved, and (c) the rediculous present strength of the US dollar and magnitude of the US current account deficit. If TBTB really are able to "direct their vehicles" reliably, why then have the Japanese and US (and German) vehicles found their way into such rough and forbidding territory? It gives me no solace to know that some of the same drivers are still in charge of these vehicles or, where they have changed, the new ones attended the same driving school.

Japan appears strongly dependent upon exports to the US, so they want their Yen to depreciate relative to the dollar. However, they cannot have their Yen depreciate too much against other trading nations' currencies, because they will then be caught in a squeeze between what they pay for their imported raw materials and what they get for their exported manufactures. This is a complex juggling act by itself, but there are many other balls in the air: China overtaking Japan in exports to the US and thereby exporting deflation, for one. I have the sneaking feeling that the Japanese economy has painted itself into a corner where many of its export-oriented industries may no longer be competitive and where both capex and fiscal spending has been on white elephants of one form or another. The banks hold major interests in such elephants. The Japanese consumer probably will be the saviour BUT for them to spend more, industry has to restructure to better meet domestic needs. A lot of pain is still to come in this process, IMO.

And then there is another ball in the air; "the war" and the POO. All developed countries are strongly affected by POO. No-one can predict what will happen here. If one was to try to characterise the options one might consider two extreme scenarios:

The Benign.
- Diplomatic solution in which Iraq and Saddam "capitulate", Iraq enters into new stable period of government with benevolent outcomes for its peoples, world powers agree to live and develop harmoniously (ha, bl..dy ha) and share the Earth's fossil fuels under equitable arrangement (ho, ho). POO declines to low $20 per barrel for a few years, but inexorably rises as more and more pressure is placed upon dwindling reserves.

The Malignant:
- "Solution" by major conflict in which the US (assisted by UK and a few others) attempts to grab a resistant Iraq and in which conflagration occurs on many fronts - potentially including catastrophic "terrorist" retaliation in downtown US and UK. POO rises to what the market and/or the cartel can bear. ME is maintained by an occupying force against persistent geurilla attack and growing tensions between the world's powers over control of oil. Certainly not "Pax Americana"!

2. As R Powell #93603 points out, there was a time only a few decades ago when discussion of possible nuclear conflagration was open and acceptable, although with great dread by many. In that time, patterns of response in the (US) population were defined and practised, and this was considered sensible and necessary. Today I sense that the general population (of the US) is reluctant to mention "the bomb". The current administration, if it fears nuclear guerilla ("terrorist") retaliation and has evidence that it may occur, appears reluctant to warn the people at large. Yet to many, including Sir Silvercollector for example, the possibility is loud and clear. Why the reluctance to broach the subject? Perhaps TPTB do not want to spook the hen house - and there may be sense in that. After all, Evolution crafted the "head in the sand" response for the ostrich, and I know people who close their eyes when confronted by imminent danger...

To my mind, Dubya and his mignions cum minders is playing a high-stakes game in the Iraqi Saloon. The players (including the US) do not all have their hands above the table. People standing around also have bets on the outcomes. They are all "low slung" and they may not take losses lightly. Dubya needs to understand that "people respond in kind".

3. Finally, what are the consequences for the POO and POG? My feeling is that the POO is more sensitive to the particular outcome than is the POG. Given a speedy and benign solution, the POO may recede to "normal levels" of about $20-25 per barrel. Given a malignant solution, the POO could go sky high. On the other hand, while there may be a "war premium" built into the POG, I think the POG is more fundamentally connected to supply and demand forces largely separate from the present war prospects. I suspect it is in the early phase of a long-term bull market, war or no war.



Of course, FWIW and IMHO only...
slingshot
(01/06/2003; 23:30:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93621)
Black Blade
Canned goods from the SixtiesI have two cans from the Cuban Crisis. One is crackers and the other biscuits.

Got Peanut Butter? :0)
Slingshot------------<>
physicalman
(01/06/2003; 23:31:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93622)
Goldhill
I'm suprised there isn't demand for those woods out there. I know of a lot of flooring and millwork factories here that ship a lot of product out west. Have the enviros shut down all the mills out there too? From where i live in Va. down into NC is where a huge amount of furniture is manufactured. The industry has been laying off like crazy for the last 12 years. Furniture never recovered from the 1990 recs. We don't have a problem with the deer eating seedlings (yellow pine) They prefer grass, acorns in the fall and browse a lot of briars in the winter. There are deer everywhere, not many kids hunt anymore and the older guys aren't able, must be 2 million whitetails and increasing by 200 thousand a year. One midsize VA. city started a bow season last year. The 3 years before that there were over a 1000 car accidents a year by deer collisions. About 3 a day for a city of 45 square miles.
We have a few elk migrating over from Kentucky but i don't think enough of them will survive in the depressed coalfields to make it over to the Shenendoah Valley. Too much poaching. The deer population there is very low compared to the rest of the state. The shenendoah valley had 100's of thousands of buffalo and elk at the beginning of the 1700's. Was the winter hunting ground for native americans from new york to georgia.
Your right about clear cutting. Was out west fighting fires (Oregon) with a helicopter this summer and the amount of forest fuel was incredible.
Gold Hill
(01/06/2003; 23:36:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93623)
Black Blade
Southern Oregon was devasted this summer with forest fires. Talked to a logger friend of mine earlier this evening who told me the Tiller fire will not even be logged, too many enviro issues. That wood will be left to rot. My property has no old growth timber so I'm removed from a lot of the rules and regs, although I do have to apply for permits to log if the logs are going to a mill.
I back up against BLM land. (Our land) My buddy and I also filled our buck tags, although both were small, dressed out less than 90 pounds each. Ducks, I don't know how to cook. Being single, if I can"t throw it on the grill I'm lost. But I love shotting those clay ones with my 12 gauge. Blade, I'm in your camp. I heat my house with wood, my water is gravity flow from a spring, and I've got more dinty moore and canned pears than ticks on a lab!!
physicalman
(01/06/2003; 23:50:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93624)
Sundeck-Silvercollector
Your right, the outcomes are pretty infinite and preparation is the only course. I have my physicals-hence the name, rural land to go to, basic nessecities (this is a broad range if you set down and think it over)equipment, stockpiled fuel, heritage seeds, production of electricity from hydro, fuel production from vegetation, spare parts, base metal stockpile, etc. etc. and hope i don't have to use a bit of it except for my own playing around. Prepare for the worst but pray for the best!
Gold Hill
(01/07/2003; 00:11:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93625)
physicalman
The big mills have been shut down because of the Canadian competion. Locally there are a few small outfits that mill, dry, and finish oak and madrone (hardwood native to the pacific north-west). Outside of that it's pretty much dried up.
There are more deer killed on I-5 than I could ever shoot!!
Were you on the fire that got close to Agness? That fire was about the size of the state of Delaware.
Black Blade
(01/07/2003; 00:14:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93626)
Wild swings predicted for natural gas
http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/GAM/20030106/RGASS
Snippit:

CALGARY -- As winter weather pushes natural gas prices higher, experts say the cost of the industrial and energy-producing fuel will swing wildly for years to come. Natural gas, which closed up 9 cents (U.S.) on Friday at $5.34, ended 2002 in the $5 range, twice its low for the year. The dramatic climb has raised questions over whether the commodity is heading for another roller-coaster ride reminiscent of the record winter of 2000-01, when prices tripled to $10 per million British thermal units (mmBTU) in the space of a single quarter. Forecasters predict that natural gas won't reach such heights this cycle. But they also warn that a tightrope of supply and demand means volatility has become a permanent feature of the commodity -- at least until major new sources of supply are found or the structure of the market changes dramatically. "There's no question that for natural gas, the supply-demand balance is quite tight," said Tom Ebbern, managing director of research with Tristone Capital Partners Inc. in Calgary. "We're in for a fairly long series of highly volatile prices." Natural gas used to be cheap and abundant. But the days of surplus are over. As a result, temporary natural gas shortages can drive the commodity to astronomical heights.

There are two main factors for that. The largest is the maturing of the traditional North American supply basins, including the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. As conventional gas pools begin to dry up, production growth has become one of the biggest challenges in the industry. Companies have to explore more, and spend more, just to keep production flat. Sucking gas up out of shrinking pools takes greater effort and resources. Brian Prokop, an analyst with Peters & Co., said gas exports to the United States are poised to shrink for the first time in history. "For 16 years, we've had increasing exports and increasing gas production," he said. "This is the first year-over-year time we'll have a decrease in both." The upshot is that increasing gas supply is no longer a matter of turning on taps to get the gas flowing into the market. Now, producers trying to pump out more gas have to explore for it before they can develop it, creating a time lag of years. Either that, or they can choose to suck gas out of existing reservoirs faster. But that only exacerbates the problem of eventually replacing reserves. Even gas storage has been coming under pressure. "There's been very little new storage coming on," Tristone's Mr. Ebbern said. "And the less storage you have, the more volatile the market becomes." In the end, analysts said, a "perfect storm" of factors will leave the natural gas market vulnerable. "The volatility is here to stay," Mr. Ebbern said.

Black Blade: I agree for the most part. NatGas supply shortages will be permanent going forward. The problem is increased demand for clean burning NatGas over the so-called "dirty" fuels. The energy crisis of 2001-2002 was demand drive and now it is supply driven. Target areas for exploration are increasingly off limits and infrastructure is antiquated and decaying. There are bottlenecks throughout the system. Higher energy costs are going to sap the economy more as it struggles to extricate itself from a deepening recession. We can hope for warmer weather and a severe depression to crush the economy so there's enough energy to go around. Even so, it won't be enough. We had our chance to build up supply but we blew it. Now Wall Street is incapable of providing financing for continuing and new projects due to lowered credit ratings and mistrust a la Enron. The only other winners are precious metals of course, maybe defense industry, and eventually food production.

Black Blade
(01/07/2003; 00:29:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93627)
Re: Gold Hill and physicalman

I have killed more deer (muleys and white-tails) with my truck than my rifle the last few years. They are thick as fleas here, but fortunately I have a heavy duty grill guard I had specially built at a local shop. Now I hook em and they fly off to the side of the road. Too bad I can't salvage any meat because it's illegal, so only the crows and maggots benefit. I would normally drive about 150 miles each way when I am doing consulting work and I would count maybe a dozen fresh carcasses (and road smeared "star bursts") each day during summer and fall.

I noticed a lot of lumber mills shutdown in recent years too. I did some consulting work in Troy and Libby, MT a few years ago and the towns were quite depressed as the mills and mines were shutdown. A lot of families were devastated and the only businesses doing much business were the few remaining bars. Bruce Babbit and company pushed a lot of people into deep poverty. As I said before, always be prepared and have an escape plan ready with a stash of cash and several ounces of protection if ya know what I mean.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(01/07/2003; 00:42:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93628)
Gasoline Prices Likely To Keep Rising
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A19425-2003Jan6?language=printer
Snippit:

The average price of regular unleaded gas in the region had stabilized since April at $1.40 a gallon, give or take a few pennies. But since Venezuelan oil workers struck Dec. 2, the price of crude has risen to well above $30 a barrel and, since the price of crude accounts for 41 percent of the price at the gas pump, motorists are feeling the pinch, too.Several oil analysts said yesterday that even higher gas prices are possible, depending on several factors, but chiefly on whether the Venezuelan oil workers seeking to oust President Hugo Chavez continue their strike and whether the United States goes to war with Iraq soon. Larry Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation in New York, said there has been a 20-cent-per-gallon jump in the wholesale price of gasoline since November, so "less than half of the wholesale price has been passed through." "The strike in Venezuela doesn't look like it's going away any time soon," said Adam E. Sieminski, oil analyst at Deutsche Bank in London. "The oil markets can stand having one thing go wrong, but not two. That's what happening with Venezuela and Iraq." That prospect does not bode well for consumers, who already are beginning to notice the recent price jump at the pump. Even with promises from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries other than Venezuela to increase production, that oil "is 40 days away from the U.S. market. Venezuela was five days away.

Black Blade: I see that in the Midwest prices are really soaring now. The problem for the Midwest is that Venezuelan oil is the primary oil source. I recently paid $1.24 for unleaded but that was in Casper where local oil is refined. The next lowest price was $1.34 in Buffalo, Wyoming. Since last week prices have risen again. Higher gasoline prices of course mean less cash in consumers pockets and reduces their ability to spend like drunken sailors. It is said that consumer spending is two thirds of the economy.

physicalman
(01/07/2003; 00:47:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93629)
Goldhill
Yea, that and three others. Had a Bell-205 out there. Spotted firefighters and dropped water when they didn't need us for transports or pick-ups. Could lift 385 gallons of water at 8500 feet and could make 15 to 20 drops an hourwhen the forest service would let us go. A big fire back here is anything over 500 acres and they are just usually the dead leaves burning on the ground. The fires out west when they crown in dense growth are unbelievable.
Got eleven whitetails and have a kill permit from the farmer next door for 20 more if i want them, can't eat that much. Might shoot a few and give them away.
physicalman
(01/07/2003; 01:00:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93630)
Black Blade
Gas here is 1.29 (low taxes in Va.) The offices for the national forest service are here and in Ashville, NC, The only cutting program they had for the whole George Washington Nat. Forest ( 1 million acres) was 300 acres and the enviro's filed suit in Atlanta and stopped that. The new Clean Water Act makes timber cutting on 10 acres or more subject to lots of new regulations on private landowners so i see a lot more smaller cutting operations going on in the last two years. If not you could not even afford to cut your own timber.
Black Blade
(01/07/2003; 01:00:22 MDT - Msg ID: 93631)
Market Indicators
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Currently US market index futures are lower, Gold is off a buck, the USD is recovering slightly, oil is lower and NatGas is slightly higher. The equities markets gained strongly yesterday on weak volume. In other words the average Joe is sitting this one out just as before the holidays. Most of the trading once again appears to be primarily institutional trading. The hopes and prayers of Wall Street is that the prez will give an inspiring speech in Chicago today that Wall Street can play off of. The big story will be the abolishment of taxes on dividends. If this proposal flies we could see a rush into strong companies that give back some earnings to the shareholder. Other companies shares will crumbles into a heap, dry up, and blow off into the dust bin of unloved stocks. A lot of phoney earnings (pro forma and operating) will be exposed for the fraud that they truly are. It will be very difficult for the financial media to spin a positive story after the emperors are revealed to be wearing no clothes. It should be rather "entertaining".

- Black Blade
ski
(01/07/2003; 02:14:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93632)
What does this tell you???



Sir Goldrush 1/2/03 #93176 .... was thoughtful enough to post this PM related info from Bloomberg:

"Investors added $612 million to the (PM) funds this year ...... Gold funds had net assets of $3.2 billion at the end of November, or about 0.1% of the $2.8 trillion in all stock funds.... The average gold fund went up 64% in 2002."

What!! A lousy $612 million moved prices up 64%!!!

IMHO if the above information doesn't stop you in your tracks, one of us has it way, way wrong! This data gives us a very accurate picture as to how unbelievabily tiny the whole PM sector is and SCREAMS of an approaching price explosion in our favored sector. Imagine, a little more than half a billion dollars moved prices up 62%!!! The PM funds now only represent one tenth of one percent of ALL STOCK FUNDS!! To move this statistic up to 1%, you have to multiply by ten!! Can you imagine what happens if gold and silver stocks attract a mere 5% of all stock market funds?? In this day and age, $10 billion is only chump-change!!

Could this quote from Harry Browne be appropriate to this situation?? "A large firm may have extensive research facilities. But profitable ideas seldom come from amassing huge amounts of information. They usually come from independent thinking about the information that's available to everyone."

How tiny is the $612 million that resulted in the 64% increase? Congress is presently debating the idea of extending jobless benefits to help about 800,000 people. The pricetag is estimated at $5 to $10 billion.

Maybe I'm in left field but it clearly looks like I can take everything I already know about PM's, add in this new info from Goldrush, and take the next year off from monitoring this forum! Why? Because I can't hardly imagine any scenario where PM fund investments won't attract even more money over the long run! In practice, I had really thought that I was all done with my PM buying .... That is, until this information came out .... I just had to picked up a lot more....

When opportunity knocks ..... don't accuse me of not answering the door! Thoughts?

Once again .... Happy New Year to Us!


Black Blade
(01/07/2003; 02:24:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93633)
Asia's big nightmare: Falling US$
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/views/story/0,2276,68840,00.html?
Snippit:

ASIA'S worst economic nightmare may be afoot - not worsening tensions with North Korea but a falling US dollar. Concerns about the US economy, possible war against Iraq and escalating tensions between North Korea and the US are chipping away at the dollar. While it's been vulnerable for years, a perfect financial and political storm of sorts is forming to weaken the world's reserve currency. The dollar lost almost 11 per cent versus the yen in 2002, and may fall much further. For Asia, the trend is a major blow. Sure, a lower dollar could help Asian stock and bond markets attract capital, lowering interest rates and boosting wealth. And firmer currencies may help at a time when oil prices are rising. But East Asia's prospects remain too tied to selling goods overseas for capital flows to matter much. The region's economies have made some progress weaning themselves off exports since the 1997-1998 Asia financial crisis, but not nearly enough. In such an environment, weaker currencies against the US dollar are the key to success. That explains why officials in Tokyo, Seoul and elsewhere are talking more and more about taking steps to halt the dollar's slide. As Washington and Pyongyang continue their war of words, Asian governments are girding for their own battle in currency markets. It may not do any good. Central banks can intervene all they want, but the efforts may not work in the face of mounting pessimism over the world's most widely used currency. 'The news is all bad for the US dollar,' says Clifford Bennett, chief strategist at FxMax, a currency-forecasting house. He thinks talk of the dollar dropping to 110 yen may prove too conservative.

Black Blade: I agree. The US dollar is grossly overvalued and it is likely to fall hard and fast. The Japanese and Europeans are likely to step in to prop up the dollar on their own, but don't expect the US to give a helping hand. The "Currency War" continues even though it is an exercise in futility. US debt is crushing and getting worse. All That the Japanese are going is committing financial Hari Kiri. Meanwhile Japanese sold off gold in overnight trading on the Tocom even though physical purchases by individual Japanese is reported to be strong.

BTW, I am going to a hold strategy on my remaining PM stocks but am inclined to go strictly physical Gold and Silver myself at the present time adding to the insurance portion as I await the results of the "Stimulus Proposal". I suspect that the proposal will be a useless scrap of paper after the politicos get through with it making it too difficult for anyone to benefit. A lot of noise but in the end no substance as usually is the case. Yet I am cautiously optimistic. Overall the case for physical precious metals is more compelling right now. The Japanese and Chinese citizenry are taking a lot of the metal off the market while the speculators and banksters play games with the price. This offers a bit more opportunity to accumulate hard assets on temporary price dips even as the fundamentals remain very strong.

ElGordo
(01/07/2003; 02:43:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93634)
Japan and now China end lifetime jobs
China Gov't to End Lifetime Jobs Promise


The Associated Press
Tuesday, January 7, 2003; 12:41 AM

BEIJING �� China is taking another step away from communist tradition by ending its promise of jobs for life to some 30 million government employees, state media reported Tuesday.

The government plans to institute work contracts that will require employees to pass tests on job skills, the China Daily newspaper and the Xinhua News Agency said, citing Vice Minister of Personnel Shu Huiguo.

The reports said Shu announced the change following a weekend meeting of personnel officials from around the country.

"This means the end of the lifelong tenure system," the China Daily said. It said the change is "a vital part of the country's modernization program."

Two decades of market-oriented reform have eliminated the need for many officials who once ran the economy, while drastically changing the skills required for other government jobs.

Chinese leaders also are trying to cut the cost of a system that used to guarantee civil servants jobs for life and benefits such as housing and health care.

Since the late 1990s, individual government agencies have cut thousands of jobs and adopted hiring policies aimed at improving professional skills among civil servants.

The new system will affect some 1.3 million institutions and lead to more layoffs, the China Daily and Xinhua said. They did not specify which entities might be affected or how many jobs lost.
_______________
Maybe the chinese would want a little gold in the nest egg with
no lifetime security. What kind of communism is this? ;-)

Ski if just a small percentage of investors moved to gold it
would make a big difference. Total capitalization of gold companies is tiny part of 2.8 Trillion in equities.
Christian
(01/07/2003; 02:43:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93635)
Ben Bernanke's remarks and the FED buying stocks.
Ben Bernanke's on the printing press machine has to be looked at from a different perspective. The FED has been bailing out a number of big mutual funds of their losses. The truth is that 46% of the dollar volume on the NYSE comes from the FED. Most of the volume on the NYSE is institutional. For some time now the little guy has been selling and taking losses. The IRS claims that stock loss carry forwards are increasing. That does not happen if trades were profitable. Truth is people are leaving the stock market and Greespan is forced to leave them something on the way out in order for the sellers to have something left of their so called investment to start again. The Middle East investors are also leaving and most of them have huge loss carry forwards. The FED is buying a lot of state debt. That means payments will now go to the FED. The FED is buying Treasuries which means payment will go to the FED. People should read the fine print on their DTC obligations in their contracts. People actually believe that if you buy 100 shares of IBM or any other stock listed that you own 100 shares. That is all crap- you own a statment that says you own 100 shares and nothing more. Is the FED buying for the stock to go up or are they buying to short it. People say here and on many chat forums that the money supply is increasing. Bull- only debt obligations are increasing when credit creation is the currency. How do you think debt is now many many times the size of dollars in circulation. Explain to me why commodity gold is trading near $350 and credit creation gold between central banks trades at $10,500. The Euro with its present gold supply is backed 15% with credit creation gold based on their banking reserve requirements. Should USA gold supply exist as reported by the Treasury gold will move to $467 and credit creation gold to $14,010 and our dollar currency will be 15% backed with credit creation gold based on our (FED's) banking reserve requirements. THE TRUTH IS our physical money supply is collapsing and debt outstanding is growing at its fastest pace ever. Just like it was in Russia. Hard cash in coin form will increase in value as banks close and turn your check book balance and your savings into long term goverment IOU's. It is only a matter of time before many credit creation $250,000 homes can be purchased for $25,000 cash. Look at the property tax statments in Japan. 20,000,000 yen homes of 10 years ago For Sale and not selling for 2,000,000 yen. That is allmost an Enron type investment. Reflate the economy, reflate the economy, with what????? As a buyer I prefer to buy low, like $125.00 an acre for good woodland here and a $1.00 an acre in Russia instead of some outlandish price.
Saxulum^
(01/07/2003; 02:45:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93636)
THE CENTRAL BANKER AS THE QUARTERMASTER-GENERAL OF DEFLATION
http://www.goldisfreedom.com/Greenspan-andCo.htmAntal E. Fekete, January 1, 2003, as good as always...

[...] "Do you know what the banks took out of the economy last year? Nearly $400 billion. The Wall Street firms who get transaction fees for moving the newly created money around took another roughly $250 billion. Between them they took out nearly three times the amount of money that the auto industry took out. But from the auto industry we got 20 million cars. What did we get from these guys? We got cancelled checks and bank statements. This is monstrous, don't you think?"[...]

[...]Free coinage, a right of the people enshrined in the U.S. Constitution, would remove the greatest threat this Republic has faced in its entire history up to now, greater even than that of foreign terrorists. This is the threat to destroy the capital of the producing sector, through the machinations of the financial sector, aided and abetted by the Federal Reserve.[...]


Recommended reading!Enjoy

cheers
ElGordo
(01/07/2003; 03:09:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93637)
Municipal Bonds more risky
New York, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- New York City's cost to borrow $650 million this week may be the highest compared with benchmark interest rates in more than six years, a sign that its bond rating will be downgraded over budget deficits.

``People have finally resigned themselves to the fact that the city's got a lot of problems,'' said Scott Albrecht, who manages about $1.5 billion of municipal bond funds at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh and has been avoiding New York City debt.

The extra return, or yield spread, on New York City's five- year bonds compared with bonds carrying the highest, or triple-A, credit rating grew to 0.98 percentage point, the widest since May 1996, according to Bloomberg data. On 10-year bonds, the spread increased to 0.89 percentage point, the widest since April 1997.

This week's bond sale is the first by New York City since Mayor Michael Bloomberg raised the property tax to help address a $1.1 billion current-year shortfall and a $6.4 billion gap in the next fiscal year, which starts in July. Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP.

Investors typically demand a higher yield to buy a bond as its perceived default risk rises. Investors in this case, though, are anticipating a rating cut, not a missed interest payment. Fewer than 1 in 1,500 municipal bonds default, according to Moody's Investors Service.

``The likelihood is they will get downgraded,'' said Ken Salinger, who manages the $550 million American Century Tax-Free Bond Fund in Mountain View, California. ``Even if the economy turns around, there's a lagged effect; the underlying economy is going to improve before the tax base reflects that.''

Rating companies in recent weeks have taken note of New York City's worsening financial situation without lowering their grades on the city's debt. Standard & Poor's placed a ``negative outlook'' on the city's A rating on Nov. 26, and Fitch Ratings followed suit Dec. 23, attaching a ``negative outlook'' to its A+ rating on the city's $27.2 billion of general obligation bonds.
ElGordo
(01/07/2003; 03:14:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93638)
German economy sinks deeper
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhqhzxYmR2VybWFuFrankfurt, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- German retail sales fell the most in more than three years and French consumer confidence remained near a four-year low as Europe's economy barely grew.

Purchases in Germany, the region's largest economy, fell 3.2 percent in November from the previous month, the government said. An index based on a French government survey of 2,000 households was unchanged at minus 17 in December, close to April's four-year low of minus 18.

Consumers spending, which accounts for more than half of the economy of the dozen nations sharing the euro, is faltering as unemployment rises. PSA Peugeot Citroen, Europe's second-largest carmaker, forecast the car market will decline 2 percent this year and Renault SA predicted it may drop as much as 6 percent.
Spartacus
(01/07/2003; 03:26:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93639)
Canada sells gold, keeps shift into euro reserves
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030106/economy_canada_reserves_1.html
OTTAWA, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Canada took advantage of the sizzling price of gold last month with the sale of one-eighth of its remaining gold reserves, part of a long-standing drive to get a bigger bang for its foreign reserve bucks.
------------
The finance ministry said it also maintained its practice of boosting its holdings of euro-denominated securities, bringing these to the equivalent of US$13.77 billion, or 42 percent of the total US$32.69 billion in foreign deposits and securities held by the government.

Just two years earlier, euros accounted for US$6.62 billion, only 23 percent of the total. The U.S. dollar share has gone down during that time to 55 percent from 75 percent. Small holdings in yen constitute most of the rest.

ElGordo
(01/07/2003; 03:43:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93640)
Tax Revolt
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=2001054CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuela's opposition, stepping up an economic war against President Hugo Chavez's government, planned to kick off a national tax revolt on Tuesday by holding a protest march to two revenue collection offices in Caracas.

More than five weeks into an opposition strike that is still throttling oil output and shipments in the world's No. 5 petroleum exporter, foes of the leftist president have added a refusal to pay taxes to their grueling protest campaign.

Opposition leaders are fighting to maintain the momentum of the 37-day-old shutdown that is strangling the South American nation's oil lifeline and costing the government millions of dollars a day in lost hard-currency export revenues.
Black Blade
(01/07/2003; 04:24:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93641)
Breaking News!!! French Pres. Chirac Orders Deployment!

Just coming over the wires - Pres. Chirac orders French troops tp prepare for deployment. Presumably the French are going to join the party. It is rumored that Chirac was not amused by Saddam's speech yesterday. This is going to get "interesting" as a more extensive coalition appears to be forming.

- Black Blade
Hipplebeck
(01/07/2003; 04:24:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93642)
ski-you have the cart before the horse
inflows into stock funds is not what raised the price of gold.
It is the other way around.
The rise in price and the percieved possibility of a further rise is what attracts money into the gold funds.
Gold stocks have no direct effect on the price of gold.
Unlimited amounts of stocks can be printed.
Black Blade
(01/07/2003; 04:35:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93643)
Chirac tells troops be ready, alludes to Iraq
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030107/iraq_chirac_1.html
Snippit:

PARIS, Jan 7 (Reuters) - French President Jacques Chirac told French troops on Tuesday to stand ready for "anything that may happen" in the year ahead, and highlighted the need for vigilance over Iraq's respect for disarmament resolutions."It's a soldier's duty to be prepared for anything that may happen. We must be especially attentive to the way in which Iraq adheres to U.N. Security Council Resolution 1441," he told the French armed forces at a ceremony celebrating the New Year. "We face numerous challenges in the year ahead," he said. It is safe to assume we will face continuing demands in theatres of (military) operation where our forces are already deployed," he said. The French army has sent a 2,500-strong force to try to keep peace in its former colony of Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer. "And there may be new ones (theatres) unfortunately," Chirac added in what appeared to be a clear reference to the risk of military action against Iraq.


Black Blade: The Brits are also calling up more reserves today as the carrier Ark Royal prepares to join the Persian Gulf fleet. This is really picking up steam now.

silvercollector
(01/07/2003; 05:52:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93644)
R.Powell, physicalman, slingshot, Sundeck
Thanks for your response.

I believe I am nervous but not afraid, if that's possible. Sundeck: Your 'Benign/Malignant' analogy I think parallels, at least to some degree, my concern that the outcome is more black & white than alot of people tend to believe.

The statement of the 'war' going well or not well of course has latitude but judging from your notes I sense we all have the same 'nervousness'.

Thanks again.
Belgian
(01/07/2003; 05:57:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93645)
Oil > Gold > dollar > euro
Saudi Arabia AND Russia are acting in concert to supply more oil . Whilst serving their own interests, they both (!!!) provide the world with the much needed (indispensable) oil-wealth to keep everything else at some intrinsic value. No oil = nothing of value anymore. It is as dramatic as it sounds !

BB's postings illustrate the ever gaining importance of oil, at present and well into the next decades. Again I ask your attention for the very possible evolution of ideas on "VALUE", that the present oil-reserve-owners might have in petto. One doesn't keep saving the world (with oil-supply) for nothing (confetti).

The GWB confetti and tax helicopter is flying again.

Canada sold 2,6 tonnes (dec.'02) and has as little as 18,6 tonnes left. Aboveground vault-Gold that is. Taiwan imported 4,26 tonnes (dec.'02) and imported a total of 40,29 tonnes (!!!) for the whole year of '02. Dubai Gold-center activities, down a bit due to rapid rising POG.
I like this kind of information from WGC.

I would like to add some suggestive thinking : Is Canada selling Gold-exchange reserves through BIS for euro ? And is Taiwan trying to catch some Gold-crumbles to imitate BIS policy ? Official CB Gold-sales from Gold producing states (Canada/Australia/South Africa) must be traced as to know where the Gold is landing. In private/official vaults or jewelry ! These kind of statistics would be of very important relevance.
Gold-consumption against oil-consumption. Available Gold-reserves against oil-reserves. Fundamentals versus hollow speculations. Enough oil against a shortage of Gold, obscenely low priced.

Yes if Caspian oil is a flop and fuel-cells are futuristic...we automatically land at Arabian oil-reserves again and the ME situation as an enormous turning point.
How can one possibly make guesses about a POG of 372$ > 400$ on TA/TI, without knowing what kind of other (gigantic) forces are building ?

The confetti-tax helicopter that caused some temporary dollar-strength, today, will NOT be able to fly into eternity ! The helicopter will run out of...OIL !

Hipplebeck
(01/07/2003; 06:12:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93646)
Aristotle
Aristotle (01/06/03; 11:35:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 93557)
Hipplebeck on money: Two questions
#1) Would you single-handedly deny all of your fellow mankind access to credit and shut down their ability to borrow if creditworthy?
(i.e., no home loans, no business loans, no car loans, no student loans, etc.)

#2) Bullion banking. Thumbs up or thumbs down? (Do you approve or disapprove of these operations, including Gold loans?)

Related bonus question: Would you knowingly deface your neighbor's private property?

Thanks in advance for giving these your full attention.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

---------------------------------
No I would not knowingly deface my neighbors property, and I would not limit any one on what they want to do.
Any kind of banking that people want to engage in is fine with me. I believe in free choice as long as it doesn't hurt any one else.

But,
Ask yourself why the governments and the IMF outlaw gold as money. Why do they take away the choice?

Ari, I say you defend the dollar because you say gold is not money.

I am going to make my case as simply as possible.

In the most basic, men trade.

They began by trading this for that.

Gold naturally took it's place as money because of it's properties and desirability.

Men always look for ways to facilitate trade, and since gold is heavy, someone issued a piece of paper that was a receipt for gold.

So far so good, right?

The problem arose when a bankster figured out that he could issue more receipts than he had gold, and as long as no one noticed it worked.

This is called fraud.

It is a crime.

It has become organized crime.

Do you get it?
Hipplebeck
(01/07/2003; 06:17:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93647)
Chirac
My guess is that he is alluding to Algeria.
Christian
(01/07/2003; 06:50:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93648)
Access to Fed Credit leads to ?
? Bush's Executive Order for Concentration Camps and Property Confiscation. If you don't believe me read it for yourself. ---Legalized counterfeiting= issuing fake warehouse receipts on gold are claimed as assets for making loans that are again claimed as an asset for more loans = credit creation gold priced many times commodity gold.
Calidor
(01/07/2003; 06:57:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93649)
Christian and others
http://dtcservices.dtcc.com/A Golden New Years greeting to all who sit at the Mighty Oaken Table.

Yesterday in a post, Christian mentioned the DTC so here's the link. As they take a percentage of EVERY SM transaction and have a hand in all, that gives them right much clout and fiat (which they can exchange for physical).
Cometose
(01/07/2003; 07:27:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93650)
Christian 93648
Christian:

Which executive order are you referring to .....If you have webaddress to lead me to that reading thanks in a advance
Boilermaker
(01/07/2003; 07:29:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93651)
DID THE FED MONETIZE GOLD?
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&board=1600640700&tid=hgmcy&sid=1600640700∾tion=m∣=19824Here's a post from the Yahoo HMY message board that I first saw at the Le Metropole Cafe. I wonder if someone here such as sector would know if there are any statistical FED or Treasury data that might support or refute this theory.
To me it sounds like a creative way for the FED to provide a gold exit strategy, albeit a messy one. All comments welcome

-------------------------------

DID THE FED MONETIZE GOLD?
by: mpennington14 01/05/03 05:56 pm
Msg: 19824 of 19906

An interesting speculation:

"If the FED needed to cap POG back in 1995 to support Rubin's "strong dollar" scam, what about asking JPM to borrow gold from Central Banks (arranged by the FED) including England, Germany, Russia, Switzerland etc., etc. As long as POG went down, JPM could keep carry trade profit margin boosting their earnings. To protect the Bank, what if the FED told JPM that they had to sell the gold to them (the FED). Remember no one knows who bought all the auctioned gold. The FED may have prearranged that if POG goes up and the CB's want their gold back, the FED will return the same gold they originally bought from JPM. In effect, they monetized gold for the purpose of holding the POG down artificially for years. The taxpayer then pays interest on the money created by the FED used to buy gold to keep it from increasing in price. Perhaps this is why JPM now says they have no gold exposure and why they were able to withstand the recent rapid increase in the POG. Afterall, the FED is now willing to let POG increase to devalue the US$. It doesn't seem logical that they would want this if the JPM gold derivative exposure was still present. Perhaps I'm wrong, but it's interesting to speculate what magic the FED used to pull this off. Regardless, the losers sacrificed by the FED in all this are the hedged miners. Many of them (hopefully ABX) will go broke as a result of this scam."

Boilermaker
sourdough
(01/07/2003; 08:19:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93652)
Canada sells gold, keeps shift into euro reserves
Re Canada selling gold and investing in other CURRENCY.
I inquired once as to what happens to the money raised from gold sales. The answer I received was that it goes "into general account". Wish I had kept the e-mail reply as I thought it was just used for government expenditures and or paying down the debt.
Therefore, sale of gold by Canada could be used by the finance ministry to assist in making the books show as surplus. Something Chretien is very proud of.

One question that would be of interest is:
Is the CANADA PENSION PLAN INVESTING IN GOLD OR GOLD RELATED STOCKS ,ETC.? Does the CPP follow the 5% rule?
Is the CPP increasing that percentage or initiating a percentage of investments in gold bullion?
If not, should they be? If not, why not?
I would be pleased to find out that official sales of gold by Canada are being bought by the CPP.
sector
(01/07/2003; 08:30:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93653)
@BoilerMaker The Treasury DID loan gold to JPM but...
...it is very unlikely the Fed bought it back in "Open outcry" COMEX or LBMA sessionswhich these markets utilize in the floor bidding process. The whole idea was to get the floor price down.

The Bank of England auctions, on the other hand, were perhaps rigged to DELIVER gold that was pre-sold to select clients [Other central banks]. This is my opinion based only upon a guess.

The amount of gold loaned and hence sold into the open market was 16,000 tonnes at June 2001. This fact is not subject to interpretation since it has been reported in the Bank of International Settlements Triennial Report. "Journalists" and "Gold Market Analysts" who keep denying this fact should be seen for what they are...paid shills for the bullion banks. It's as rediculous as denying the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency reports of $41 Billion in gold derivatives for JPM. The reports are public information.

For the uninitiated the idea that elaborate government shams [Gold swaps and loans, BOE auctions etc] exist to obfuscate the truth in commodity operations is difficult to accept in the US but it is nevertheless true. You will hear more outlandish stories from "Official" sources trying to convince the public that a vast mountain of metal is just waiting to be dropped on the markets.

A war is about to be launched in the Middle East because Western authorities just can't tolerate an essential commodity in the hands of adversaries.

Did the Fed monetize gold? In a word...nope. It's loaned and hence sold. In other words, it has taken 16,000 tonnes of market sales of central bank gold to cap its price for the last 7 years.

The bullion banks and especially their Australian hedger friends are slipping under the waves of financial history...into the abyss.
a nation of one
(01/07/2003; 08:47:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93654)
further reflections on greed and turmoil

The program of our present George to eliminate taxes on dividends might cause the DOW to go up and stay up, especially if the companies in the DOW are ones that give dividends. This would make it appear that the economy is recovering and could reduce the upward movement in gold somewhat, since many believe that gold only moves contrary to the DOW. Of course we know better, but many do not. Notice for instance, that the public announcement came at a time when these effects would be needed to keep gold from going through the roof. Consistent with this, though in a small way, yesterday on the local news there was a positive segment concerning gold's recent gains. As the bull market in gold gains strength similar news segments will cause the upward movement to increase. It seems to me that what is going on is that the public's fervor, in respect to its desire to benefit from gold's upward movement, is being managed, so as to discourage potential gold buyers now, generally, but so that more of them can be more actively encouraged later, to join en masse. This will cause a bubble, during which the POG will go very high, in a short period. It is not hard to imagine who may benefit from this. But the peak will not last long. Then it will come down again, but this time to where the real economic determinants for it at that time be, in other words, significantly higher than it is now. It looks to me like the present events indicate a slow climb for two or three years, perhaps four or five years (depending on the potential extent of the rise), with positive media stories on gold increasing in number and intensity during that time, then an increasing rush, perhaps in five or six years, toward a truly lofty figure, probably so high that nobody in his right mind today would say out loud what he thinks it will be. One way to gauge the future top dollar gold will be worth in this bubble, and the amount of time it will take to get there, in my not so humble opinion, is by observing the amount and intensity of factoids doled out to the public in the form of news and opinion, and also, who is buying and when. When milkmaids and car parkers boast loudly of having sold all their possessions and of having invested the proceeds in by-then-inflated gold stocks, that may be an early indication that the time has come to watch out.
Old Yeller
(01/07/2003; 08:58:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93655)
Canada sells "vault gold"

Of course,it retains it's vast reserves of deep storage gold.

That fact,however,does little to underpin the drooping
currency.

Only in America,all animals are equal...

The Crooked E,where did these tawdry individuals find their
inspiration and nefarious methods to deceive through opaque accounting?

"The foundation rots from the bottom up,never from the top
down,except in matters of moral character."

mannfm11
goldenboy
(01/07/2003; 09:01:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93656)
@Christian: Wealth in Trees and Land Versus Gold
I strongly believe in both land and gold as a form of wealth preservation. Income,however, is generated from land/income real estate.
Were I you, I would be worried about political/management risk with the Russian property, especially when you are paying someone to work on it. With 14" trees, is it not possible to earn an income?
At home, you have only 4" trees; so I hope you are around 30 years old. I would think it would be very difficult to make a living without outside employment.
If I could, I would subdivide the property, even if it meant only dividing it into 3. (one severance) You sell the middle third after cleaning up the area at the front and enter into a mangement/labour contract with the purchaser. Perhaps eventually, even build a home for him with your or his logs. With the money, you buy a more mature, smaller woodlot, perhaps with tappable maples, but in any event with more immediate potential to earn current revenue and maximize the value of your knowledge and skill.
This may be anaethma to you as it is difficult to sell land that you get attached to; but what if you could find a better stand and have more fun and earn more gold?
goldfool
(01/07/2003; 09:41:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93657)
Another Proven California Revenue Source?
http://www.insidevc.com/vcs/opinion/article/0,1375,VCS_125_1206787,00.htmlHAHAHAHAHAHaHaHaHaHaHahahahahaha......hah....mmmmmmm????
Belgian
(01/07/2003; 10:17:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93658)
T. Blair's speech to the UK ambassadors - London
My 2 cents interpretation from between the lines : The world is in an economic (read-monetary) mess due to oil-pressure that risks to become another oil-shock !
All should act opportunistically to avert the coming avalanche and unite for the crusade. Point !
sourdough
(01/07/2003; 10:31:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93659)
Canada sells "vault gold"
My understanding is the Bank of Canada`s job is to TARGET INFLATION WITHIN A CERTAIN RANGE. They also manage foreign currency reserves and gold reserves.
While this is there primary job description, no doubt they manage the Canadian dollar also.
Increasing or decreasing the value of the dollar is in my opinion every bit as important as interest rate. CDN dollar down= exports increase, employment increases, consumer spending increases, government revenues (GST) increases, inflation from higher cost imports increases government revenues (GST).
Government maintains budget surplus, lowers unemployment, everybodys happy, government gets re elected.
Bank of Canada may sell gold in obtaining there objective for any number of reasons.

CANADA PENSION PLAN HAS A DIFFERENT OBJECTIVE.
As I understand it, CANADIAN Dollars flow into CCP on a monthly basis.
There objective is to pay out what is required and to invest the rest with the objective of achieving the maximum return with the minimum risk.
They have done done well in the last year. Not only did they not preserve capital but actually lost on their investments.
If they had purchased gold from Bank of Canada sales they would be looking good right now.(at least on that investment)
They state there investments are based on "long term" perspective.
A percentage investment in gold, equal to Bank of Canada sales would/could achieve the objectives of both organizations.
On a long term basis can the CPP expect a return on gold bullion equal or exceeding the domestic or foreign 30 year bond? I think so.
It is inevitable that U.S. AND CANADIAN CURRENCY MUST ADJUST.
The CPP should be increasing their percentage of bullion investment.
A 5% return on investment equates to an increase in the gold price of $17.50 U.S. Based on the CPP investing U.S. dollars in gold.
I think it is rational to expect an increase of $17.50 U.S. sometime within the next 12 months. (from 350)
Investing by the CPP of Canadian dollars into gold is more difficult as we need to know the value of a Canadian dollar versus a U.S dollar in 12 months.
Will the Bank of Canada allow or be forced to let the Canadian dollar increase in value against the U.S.
In what proportion to increasing gold price?
The CPP should hold gold in their portfolio and increase gold/canadian dollar investments by selling U.S. dollar investments.
Sometimes I wonder if bumps in the dollar ratios are caused by CPP portfolio balancing.
ANYONE KNOW HOW MUCH GOLD THE CANADA PENSION PLAN HAS IN THEIR PORTFOLIO OF INVESTMENTS? PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL AND DOLLAR AMOUNT?
sourdough
(01/07/2003; 10:37:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93660)
central bank gold sales
I forgot to mention.
In my opinion all Central banks would be wise to secretly move/sell their bullion reserves into their government pension plans. If they decide to sell why not sell low to their own pension plans and let them reap the capital gains in order to fund the glut of retirees coming down the pipe.
?????????????????
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/07/2003; 11:01:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93661)
"Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

The dollar has been continuously devalued without stop for the past 57 years. It has
not appreciated against goods and services once -- not even once -- in that entire time period.
There are periods when this policy has not been fully reflected in the price of gold.

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

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George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

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We look forward to your inquiry.

 

Rock
(01/07/2003; 11:07:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93662)
Question on Unemployment Extension
Hi all, sure love reading all the knowledge this forum provides. I'm battling a cold that started on Sunday, just sipping on some green tea and trying to rest and beat this sucker. I understand that Bush is going to extend unemployment benefits. My question is this, I collected unemployment benefits last year and I received a three month extension, (total 9 months of unemployment) those benefits ran out in November of 2002. I still haven't found work yet, I guess no one needs a good personal trainer. Will I qualify for another extension with Bush's new stimulus? Tbanks for all the help, somehow I'll make it up to the castle.

Cheers,

Rock
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/07/2003; 11:09:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93663)
Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/rationale.html

Swiss Gold Francs

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

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Call USAGOLD - Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/07/2003; 11:11:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93664)
International clients: Please take note of our NEW toll free Int'l phone numbers
http://www.usagold.com/phone.htmlImplemented to help us serve you better.

Give them a spin and let us help you with your next gold order.
Aristotle
(01/07/2003; 11:51:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93665)
Hipplebeck's dilemma
You said, "No I would not knowingly deface my neighbors property, and I would not limit any one on what they want to do. Any kind of banking that people want to engage in is fine with me."

Sorry, buddy, but this is one case where you can't have it both ways. Do you **NOT** realize that this free banking tolerance of yours -- coupled with a desire for Gold's use as currency -- is effectively a frontal assault on this property value of EVERY other honest owner of Gold???

You'd better continue your education, young man, because your blind desires are in direct conflict with your mantra, "I believe in free choice as long as it doesn't hurt any one else." If you would set aside your preconceived ideas to make way for a fresh unbiased assessment, you'd quickly discover the way of lesser evil.

Wisdom and Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Hipplebeck
(01/07/2003; 12:04:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93666)
For those who have ears to hear
Beware of banksters in sages clothing
Yer hopeless
Aristotle
(01/07/2003; 12:14:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93667)
What can men do...
...against such reckless ignorance?

Gold. Get you some. THAT'S the answer! --- Ari
CoBra(too)
(01/07/2003; 12:14:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93668)
Bush's Plans for the Economy -
Would require the same kind of naivity from the rest of the globe as this administration seems to think the Americans will happily adopt.

What an unbelievable heap of crap, breathlessly lauded by Kudloff and Cramer.

Sorry friends, I'm kind'a nauseated as I can't come to grips with this kind of lamentable, or better laughable
policies. Please do tell me - they can't possibly believe their own script?

Breathlessly, in expectation of new histerical highs in the SM's ... and of course in valuations.

POG at least turned up in the late session - the ultimate sanity at work - cb2


Hipplebeck
(01/07/2003; 12:57:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93669)
Aristotle
Isn't it amazing that we see things so differently yet we come to the same conclusion to Own Gold? Life is wonderful!
With great respect
Your friend
Hipplebeck
MK
(01/07/2003; 13:18:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93670)
CB2. . .
With all the talk of fiscal stimulus and The Great Bernanke Printing Press Invention and Magic Show . . . .Shades of Nixon 1971 from whence came his famous utterance:

"We are all Keynsians now."
ElGordo
(01/07/2003; 13:26:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93671)
Forget todays hoopla, this is real news
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhrwMBHgVS5TLiBO 01/07 10:20
U.S. Nov. Factory Orders Fall 0.8%; Ex-Trans. 0.7% (Update1)
By Liz Enochs


Washington, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Orders to U.S. factories fell in November for a third month in four as companies held down inventories in the face of modest consumer demand.

Factory orders decreased 0.8 percent to $319.3 billion after rising a revised 1.4 percent in October, the Commerce Department said. Bookings for commercial aircraft, machinery, electrical equipment and computers declined. Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell 0.7 percent.

``There is no pickup in investment spending, and it doesn't look like it's going to pick up any time soon,'' said Elisabeth Stoegmueller, economist and investment strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in New York.
ElGordo
(01/07/2003; 13:29:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93672)
Foreclosures up
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home loans in foreclosure edged up to a record level in the third quarter of 2002 as the weak economy forced a larger portion of mortgage holders out of their homes, a mortgage trade group said on Tuesday.

But the group, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, said a slowdown in late loan payments suggests foreclosures will decline as employment picks up in a recovering economy.

Loans in the process of foreclosure moved to 1.15 percent of mortgages, up from a revised level of 1.13 percent in the second quarter of last year, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America said. The previous high was 1.14 percent in 1999.
___________
Also-Inflation in Argentina now 41% ! WOW
I hope Argentine people had some gold/silver stashed
ElGordo
(01/07/2003; 13:38:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93673)
Tax hoopla takes coverage off earnings
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Earnings%20News&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_all&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bb2=ad_bottom2_all&bt=ad_position1_all&ss1=ad_top1_all&bt2=blk&ss2=ad_top2_all&box=ad_box_all2&tag=bbn/earnings∣dle=ad_frame2_all&s=APhsnaxUsQ2lyY3VpRichmond, Virginia, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Circuit City Stores Inc., the No. 2 U.S. electronics retailer, said December sales fell 5 percent as shoppers crimped spending on mobile telephones, computers and satellite-television systems.

Sales dropped to about $1.74 billion from $1.82 billion in the year-earlier month, Circuit City said. Sales at stores open at least a year fell 6 percent in December as the company reduced prices to attract shoppers, spokeswoman Celeste Gunter said.
____________
All these tax manipulations will just increase the deficit faster.
Its earnings that drive the market, so lets see the earnings.
Circuit City sold less this 4th qtr than last 4th qtr.
Sales were WORSE than last year.

SHOW ME THE EARNINGS WALL STREET
Gandalf the White
(01/07/2003; 14:20:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93674)
Sir Rock's QUESTION !!!
Rock (1/7/03; 11:07:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 93662)
Question on Unemployment Extension
===
Seeing how that no one can figure out what the PTB are implementing -- I suggest you ask your UNEMPLOYMENT OFFICE that same question and let them try and figure it out !
You may be lucky !
<;-(
ElGordo
(01/07/2003; 14:27:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93675)
Blame it on Rio
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhszNBNYQnJhemls 01/07 15:06
Brazil's Lula Fails to Force State to Pay Debts (Update7)
By Michael Smith


Rio de Janeiro, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed in his first attempt to force a state to honor its debts, raising investors' concerns that the federal government will be unable to meet its own obligations.

Brazil's Federal Supreme Court ordered the federal government to release 86 million reais ($25.6 million) of tax receipts it seized last week from the state of Rio de Janeiro to cover missed debt payments. The ruling, stemming from a suit filed by Rio de Janeiro Governor Rosinha Matheus, will allow the state to pay civil servants year-end bonuses required by law. The government plans to appeal as early as today, the attorney general's office said.

The decision is ``a very bad sign,'' said Sergio Lima, who helps manage about $2.5 billion in Brazilian stocks and bonds for Mellon Global Investments in Sao Paulo. ``So now, all the other governors will ask the court the same thing by saying they need money to pay their civil servants.''

The showdown is the first between Lula and Brazil's 26 states over 268 billion reais of debt owed to the federal government that the governors say they don't have enough funds to cover. Economists estimate states' debt payments account for about 4 percent of annual federal government revenue, and Lula has said he won't give states a break until next year to ensure South America's biggest economy is able to keep up payments on about $300 billion of debt.
__________
Denial is not a river in Egypt- Default is looming-$300 Billion
goldquest
(01/07/2003; 14:31:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93676)
Oh Well, By Friday, It will All Be OLD NEWS!
Gold will resume its throttle up! Looking for $360+! Rest up Spot and Spike. You're gonna be busy!
Black Blade
(01/07/2003; 15:00:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93677)
Re: Rock - Unemployment

That's a good question. I have two geologist friend who were asking the same thing. They both have exhausted their benefits and their extensions (in November no less). One has a family with five kids and wife got laid off too. Now they are living off savings and credit cards. I somehow think that there will be no extension of te extension. But then again who knows. There ar a lot of people in the same fix. There are now over 8 million "officially" unemployed and about that many more "unofficially" unemployed. I suspect that there will be a rush on the unemployment offices for the "work search grants". It looks grim for the unemployed who can't find work and that doesn't even take into account the "under employed". Good luck and lets us know what you find out.

- Black Blade
TownCrier
(01/07/2003; 15:16:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93678)
MILLION DOLLAR HEADLINE: Bush urges Congress to push economy forward with tax-slashing plan; Democrats object
http://www.newsok.com/cgi-bin/show_article?ID=970194πc=none&TP=getbusinessWith a headline that good, you almost don't need to waste time reading the article. It's the same old, same old.

(AP) CHICAGO - President Bush asked Congress on Tuesday to "push the economy forward" with a $674 billion plan to abolish federal taxes on stock dividends, speed up promised income tax cuts and send rebate checks to 34 million low- and middle-income parents.

Democrats said the lion's share of the package favors the rich, a claim the White House did not dispute.

"This growth and jobs package is essential in the short run," Bush said in an address to the Economic Club of Chicago. "It's an immediate boost to the economy. And these proposals will help stimulate investment and put more people back to work."

"He has put forward an irresponsible, ineffective, ideologically driven wish list," said Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., who is likely to seek the Democratic presidential nomination.

The president and his allies counter that the package will spur consumer and business spending, expanding the economy and helping the government's budget figures.

"The president does not believe in punishing people because they are successful," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said aboard Air Force One en route to the address. "The president does not believe in getting into class warfare."

That's just what Democrats accused him of doing.

--------(see article at url for full text)------

When you're up against populous forces bigger than you are, sometimes you just have to step a pace back and breathe the free air and try to enjoy that part of the environment over which you still may exercise a degree of control. When something has got to give in these political struggles, the national currency always comes up the loser whether your side wins completely or not. Fortunately, you have an avenue to protect your purchasing power -- with prudent diversification into gold. Call Centennial today for a breath of fresh air.

R.
misetich
(01/07/2003; 15:32:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93679)
Challenger Offers Bleak View Of Near-Term US Job Market- corporate job cutting will remain heavy well into 2003
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=1&ts=1041953100000Snip:

NEW YORK (MktNews) - Workplace authority John A. Challenger does
not see a recovery in U.S. hiring for at least six months and believes
corporate job cutting will remain heavy well into 2003.
"Planned job-cut announcements give us a fairly good idea of the
hiring landscape six months out and, right now, job cutting is still
relatively heavy. As a result, we see no evidence of a significant
increase in job creation in 2003," Challenger said in a press release
Tuesday.
Challenger cited a survey by the Business Roundtable of 150 chief
executives of the country's largest employers, in which 80 percent said
they would hold the line or reduce capital spending in 2003.
..............
The technology sector remains at the top of the list of troubled
industries which are likely to see more job cutting from consolidation
as well as business failures, Challenger said. He also sees trouble in
automotive, transportation and segments of the financial services
industry.
*************
Misetich

Greetings and Salutions To All and Best Wishes For A Golden 2003, 2004, 2005....2020...

Unemployment in the US is being underreported - as can be attested by the fall in tax revenues at both the federal and state level

and it looks to be headed higher in 2003.

Got gold?


makcumka
(01/07/2003; 15:43:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93680)
Business in "recovering" economy
What industries were historically the most stable ones during the recession / depression periods of the US history? Military-related, even if there is no war, because the government pumps money into manufacturing to kick-start the economy? Construction, because it can employ a lot of people, the technological advances are non-existant in last 100 yeras in comparison to other industries, and the government pumps money into construction to create jobs? Any thoughts would be appreciated.
misetich
(01/07/2003; 15:55:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93681)
Home Foreclosures at Record High--Bankers
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030107/economy_foreclosures_6.htmlSnip:

By Mark Felsenthal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home loans in foreclosure edged up to a record level in the third quarter of 2002 as the weak economy forced a larger portion of mortgage holders out of their homes, a mortgage trade group said on Tuesday.
**********

Misetich

Notwithdstanding the spin in the rest of the article - "We believe going forward there will be fewer households facing the harsh economic reality.."

it will get much much worse as credit has been extended to marginal credit worthy individuals thanks to the GSE's etc.

Whereto US $?

Got gold?
Rock
(01/07/2003; 16:00:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93682)
Thanks Gandalf & Blackblade
Thanks guys, I think I heard while flipping through stations the tail end of the answer to my question and I don't think I'm entitled to any more extensions of benefits. Oh well, it was a nice thought anyway. Meanwhile maybe I'll get that extra $1000 this year when they abort the marriage penalty tax. Can you imagine trying to make marriage out to be something wrong by adding a penalty tax? I'll keep you posted on my job quest results, I may have to go back to the boiler room (sales) from whence I came before becoming a personal trainer. Its nice to be diversified.

Cheers,

Rock
CoBra(too)
(01/07/2003; 16:12:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93683)
Baron K. of Tilton, a.k.a. John Maynard Keynes
@ MK, as you know started out quite soundly. He was leading the British Delegation at the Treaty of Versailles in 1918 and later found the war reparations economically crippling and unjustified and urged an "Revision to the treaty". Some historians still believe, that it would have spared us from WWII.

As counsel to the Treasurer in WWII, with "Lend-Lease and how to pay for war" his social(istic) tendencies became clear. Based on his major theories in "The general theory of employment, interest and money (1936)" only much later became the foundation and legitimacy of latter western politicians for the massive re-socialisation and re-distribution of wealth.

The Austrian economists may have built their economic models on many of K's. early assumptions and had the privilege to see and calculate, where he went off base.

... and yes we're all Keynesians now... in the sense that for the last 30 plus years his dogmas were used to the opportunistic views of the time.

In that sense I view GWB's economic stimuli today and are sadly reminded of one Austrian chancellor, Bruno Kreisky, who's "Keynesian" inheritance is still around to haunt this and the next generations.

Does history repeat? Or do we all just go in circles? Others say it's cycles ... and I tend to agree, as the cycle I forsee is a beginning cycle for real assets - versus financial assts - ... in particular Gold and Silver!
Financial assets are still way overvalued in any comparison and have a long way to find an equilibrium.
Scrapping double taxation on dividends of a meagre dividend yield of 1.5% on the S&P is at best described as ridiculous since the historical average div/yield was better than 3.5% - and the S&P co's are already scratching the bottom of the barrel to pay even these...

The real question, of course will be were to find the funds as the internal and external debt of the US has long surpassed any historical parallel.

Print it? OK, it'll really be like pushing on the proverbial string and the US Dollar will undoubtedly tank, totally and competitive devaluations may prove to be the beginning of the endgame for the IMF/SDR monetary system of semantic greenmail.

In this scenario Gold will not only be the last resort to preserve wealth, but also liberty! cb2






misetich
(01/07/2003; 16:36:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93684)
$$$ Out of Control
http://www.the-privateer.comSnip:

January 6, 2003
William (Bill) Buckler
Captain of The Privateer

Extracted from the Early January 2003 issue of Bill Buckler's "The Privateer"

$US 1 TRILLION FROM THE TREASURY
$US 1 TRILLION FROM THE FED
$US 500 BILLION FROM THE WORLD

That total is what the Bush Administration wants/requires - for the next 12 months - to have their war in the Middle East, to keep their external empire running, and to keep the US economy "growing.'

The US debt ceiling was raised by $US 450 Billion (from $US 5.5 to 5.95 TRILLION) in August 1997. That lasted until June 30, 2002, when the ceiling was raised by another $US 450 Billion to its present $US 6.4 TRILLION. The first raise lasted 61 months. The second raise, of the same amount, is now estimated (by the Treasury) to last for 8 months. Throw in a Middle East war, and the US Treasury is running on a profile which might see them add $US 1 TRILLION to their debt in ONE year.

..........
and from the same site - not same issue-

Quote

We are in the VERY early stages of a MAJOR Gold bull market - of a magnitude unseen since the 1970s. 2003 will be the first full year of this bull market. Enjoy the New Year celebrations and stay tuned for 2003. It could well be an historic year.

End of quote

Misetich

Got gold?
Christian
(01/07/2003; 16:47:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93685)
Respond to a few questions and more
Excecutive orders= E.O. 10998, 11000, 12919. Congress has 30 days to stop an excecutive order before it becomes law. The president is the KING or DICTATOR depending on your opinion of him.---- Swiss gold has been placed into the AHV., Swiss Social Security.-- Canada like the USA are using gold as a means to pay for some of the oil imports. Note: Canada is going for the Euro. Canada is doing what Switzerland is doing= dual currency. Presently in Canada you can use the U.S.$ or the Euro to buy food or gas. Many Canadian corporations have established Euro banking conections.---Cheney wants U.S.sanctions lifted against Iran and have the pipeline go through IRAN. Everything is soothed by oil. Note how oil and gold move together, be it up or down. --- Afghanistan is now an opium producer for the Bush Administration. --- Bundesbank holds 111 million troy ownces in its own account, not the EURO account.--- Oil wants Gold, we want cheap oil, to get cheap oil-oil wants cheap gold, gold investors want to profit on their investment, commodity producers want a commodity money, nobody is happy, so now what????
silvergolong
(01/07/2003; 16:51:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93686)
--> Aristotle, your debate with Hippleback...
...has got me thinking.

Lately I have been wondering how banks could be completely eliminated from the economy. Now I'm not suggesting this is practical or even desirable, but it is worth thinking about considering how banks and financial services companies have come to dominate the world economy (along with oil and oil refining). Just make a quick analysis of the Fortune 500 and Global 1000 and you'll see that the lion's share of corporate profits are earned by just these two sectors of the economy. It seems to me that the world is much better off thanks to oil, but banks? Assuming that the world has a LOT of problems (a good assumption) and that oil is a very good thing, that leaves us with an interesting conclusion: banks are awful. (Yes that's a ridiculously simplistic analysis, but bear with me anyhow).

Take that conclusion, and compound onto it the biblical sanctions against lending and interest, and you've got a good reason to at least THINK about a world without banks.

What would that do to the capital markets? Well, instead of lending you could have a system of owner financing. Essentially, this means that instead of renting money, you'd be renting-to-own a physical asset. Instead of balance sheets cluttered up with financial assets paying fixed income streams, you'd have balance sheets with real physical assets paying fixed income streams.

Let's think about an example. Let's say you were a real estate developer. You need lots of capital to develop a property. In a debt-free world, you'd have to sell shares to raise this money. Then you'd build your housing. Now how would you monetize these assets? Well you'd rent-to-own this housing. The physical assets would stay on your balance sheet. This would have one immediate benefit to the housing market: if the developer built crappy houses, the renters would move out after a few years, and the builder would be stuck with useless inventory. (Aside: it's no surprise then that in a world of debt, we have a world full of crappy condos.)

The rental payments could be structured to incent people to gradually assume ownership--just like a mortgage payment, the early payments would represent mostly rent, and the later payments would represent mostly equity. If the occupant decides to leave, they would sell their portion of the equity to a new occupant, who would then pick up the payments.

Now as the developer you might say: "wait a second: in the absence of banks, who is going to qualify the 'credit-worthiness' of the renter/owners?" Well, first, you wouldn't really have to. Since you plan to own these buildings for the long haul, you can structure the deal to kick people out if they don't pay on time. But even if you were concerned about this, you could easily imagine that a service similar to modern credit reporting agencies could quickly arise to vet the "quality" of potential customers.

Well this is just one little "thought experiment". Maybe others can shoot holes in this idea, or develop it further. But it is interesting to at least think about the consequences of eliminating banks entirely.
Paper Avalanche
(01/07/2003; 16:53:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93687)
Thoughts on the USAGOLD graphic in post #93661
I was scrolling through today's posts when I noticed the graph that USAGOLD has been recently posting showing the purchasing power of the US$. I then noticed the date of the starting point of the graph. The date is 1945. The US$ became the world's reserve currency in that year (Bretton Woods). If the US$ has lost that much purchasing power as the world's reserve currency in that time frame, how much more will it lose in relative value to today's purchasing power (and more importantly, at what rate of acceleration) when it is no longer the world's reserve currency?

For those who have walked the trail this is a rhetorical question. For newbies, food for thought.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche
silvergolong
(01/07/2003; 17:04:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93688)
---> Rock
Just because the president has proposed this crazy idea of employment incentive grants, doesn't mean they'll get passed into law. Upon reading about this nutty scheme, I was dumbfounded: we're going to create a whole new unemployment bureaucracy for THIS??? And the underlying presumption--that americans have grown "dependent" on unemployment benefits--is absurd. Yeah, like someone could actually LIVE on a few hundred dollars a week? I think americans have plenty of incentives to find work, without a stupid new set of bureaucratic rules to allocate piddly little amounts of money--to further "incent" them. Just goes to show how completely out of touch with reality our nation's leadership really is.

Anyhow the democrats have proposed extending conventional benefits for 26 weeks. I'm betting that the republicans use their cockamamie new plan as a bargaining chip, as what they really want is the dividend tax repealed. Probably sometime in March they'll compromise on a 13-week extension of normal unemployment benefits, after 2 months of grinding, unproductive political fights and a hue-and-cry from the unemployed.
TownCrier
(01/07/2003; 17:21:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93689)
The dollar and the stimulus package
http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4550400∾tion=articleNEW YORK (AFX) - The dollar climbed against major currencies in late trade after President George Bush announced a fiscal stimulus package aimed at boosting the US economy...

Larry Brickman, currency strategist at Bank of America, said he was not surprised at all that the dollar moved higher on the Bush package. "There was definitely room for the dollar to strengthen. But we should not be reading anything to it. The dollar's rise should be temporary," he said.

The Bank of America analyst also said that the general optimism following the Bush package could die down especially if investors realize that with the proposed tax cuts that go with the plan, it would be more difficult to bridge the US current account deficit.

Nick Parsons, global head of currency strategy at Commerzbank, thinks that the positive impact of the stimulus plan is likely to be offset by a decline in state budget revenues which may force the US government to slash spending or raise taxes in order to balance its budget.

-------(article at url)-----

Ask yourself, what is the government's tolerance for generalized economic pain under the banner of puritanical austerity? They can't sell it to the voters.

Unfortunately, elephants just do not get along well in card houses. To a point it's like trying to lite a match "just a little bit". POOF! There she goes.

"We shall have the hyperinflation." (After, that is, only as much "deflation"/recession as we can bear. Are we there yet?)

R.
TownCrier
(01/07/2003; 17:28:49 MDT - Msg ID: 93690)
U.K. Must Adopt Euro Should Tests Be Met, Blair Says
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Economy%20UK&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=uk_economy&s=APhsg_RRjVS5LLiBN&ao=19327472London, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair sought to dispel doubts that adopting the euro has fallen down his priority list, saying Britain ``must'' join the dozen nations sharing the currency should the economics be right.

In a speech to the nation's ambassadors gathered in London, Blair said it would be ``madness'' for Britain to separate itself from the rest of the 15-nation European Union.

``That must include, provided the economic conditions are right, membership of the single currency,'' Blair said, calling for an end to ``hesitation'' over the U.K.'s relationship with Europe that ``has never profited us.''

[However...] The U.K. economy may be further out of step with euro nations in 2003 than it was last year, PriceWaterhouseCoopers said earlier today.

------(article at url)------

Further euro inroads chip away at the dollar's reserve-status hegemony -- it's last feeble pillar of support with the international trade position being what it is.

R.
MK
(01/07/2003; 17:30:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93691)
CB2. . .
Amen, brother. . .

The whole system is based upon a promise to pay. . .buy pay what? Implosion is a likely scenario. A gigantic financial black hole that sucks everything associated with it into some kind of financial vortex. I don't see a way out, let alone an easy way out. I have said many times to many people that the best chance for any of us is to prepare ourselves (with gold ownership as a crucial part of the mix), and that doesn't mean just Americans, that means all of us -- European, Asians and Americans. Prepare individually and as families because no one will go unaffected if the post-World War II system breaks apart. . . And unfortunately I do not think we are talking about anything less. The United States will survive and even the dollar will survive, but it will not be the same United States and will not be the same dollar. And as a result everything else spinning around the U.S. financial system and currency will change as well. When will it happen and how will those two entities be defined??

Don't know, but that's why we have this forum. Stay tuned. It could be little more than a stagflationary stasis between the forces of inflation and deflation; but that could easily degenerate into hyperinflationary or deflationary chaos. Worldwide!!

Whatever happens what do you want to bet that you, me and that guy who just sat down to his computer to tune into this place will be the ones ready for it? At least as ready as one can be?

Sorry for the bummer scenario. . . . and its still early evening on this side of the globe.

As Aristotle keeps saying and as you said so well in your earlier post. . .better get it while you can.



MK
(01/07/2003; 17:32:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93692)
Paper Avalanche. . . .
The graph. . . .

It's a paper avalanche.
Christian
(01/07/2003; 17:40:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93693)
@silverlong
I have owned a number of propertise in my lifetime and when I lease (sell) them I usually owner finance the deal with so much down. Usually I will split a property into smaller pieces in order to get enough down payment from each to cash me out on the cost of purchase. I have never had a property come back or had to forclose on one. It has never bothered me to get a payment late, and I do not add on late charges. A few have changed ownership hands and so far nobody has lost their principal payments made. Divorce situations can get messy and I have found that the best remedy is simply offer to buy the place back for payments made minus lease (interest cost) and sell it back to one of the now single people that used to be couple.
Mr. Bill
(01/07/2003; 17:50:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93694)
@Christian msg#: 93685
I am sure that the US dollar can be used in any whorehouse in Canada, but where exactly can you spend a euro? Those Afghanistan poppies belong to the Queen. The US military is only there to guard them.
erayboy
(01/07/2003; 17:55:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93695)
President's Plan = Higher Interest Rates - Article
U.S. tax cuts to deepen deficits, may push up rates
Tuesday January 7, 3:08 pm ET
By Ross Finley and Jonathan Nicholson

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Should President George W. Bush's latest hefty tax cut plan be approved by Congress, it will likely spawn the largest annual U.S. budget deficit in history and threatens to boost interest rates as government borrowing needs rise.

Many Wall Street economists already expect this fiscal year's deficit to hit $300 billion or more, eclipsing the current record of $290 billion in 1992.

If the United States goes to war with Iraq and if that conflict drags on longer than the matter of weeks many are assuming, that number could easily rocket even higher.

Bush's new 10-year $674 billion tax cut package -- unveiled on Tuesday less than two years after a $1.35 trillion tax cut -- will certainly ramp up the size and frequency of Treasury debt sales. It could also bring back old borrowing tools the government disposed of back when it was in the black and expected budget surpluses "as far as the eye can see," such as the three-year note.

Central to the market's reaction to the new tax cuts will be whether it believes the U.S. government is headed down a path of runaway borrowing similar to the 1980s.

"It could leave Bush in a little bit of a predicament," said J.P. Marra, head of government bond trading at Lehman Brothers in New York. "He's trying to fuel growth by creating deficits (but) with more (debt) supply he's going to change the rate structure, and that will have repercussions obviously on everything from lending to confidence."

"He's got to be careful," said Marra.

The impact of such a huge increase in the supply of debt securities on the market has yet to be felt as most traders are awaiting details on how the Treasury will manage its borrowing in coming months. But if Congress passes anything close to the total the President is seeking, the increases will come.

The package also would fatten the government's $6.3 trillion national debtload. Before Christmas, Treasury asked Congress to boost the government's borrowing limit, which is again looming even after a $450 billion increase last summer.

BORROWING NOT A BAD THING

The Bush team argues that the stimulation from the tax cuts will boost the revenue coming into government coffers. Indeed, greater government borrowing in tough times is accepted as sound policy by fiscal hawks and free spenders alike.

But the Bush package's size -- double its original estimate -- threw many analysts off guard.

"I don't think the economy is bad enough to need a package this large," said Lou Crandall, Treasury financing watcher at Wrightson ICAP. While he was sanguine about the plan's immediate effect on Treasury borrowing, he did acknowledge it raised the risk that the government will be soon forced into running large, chronic, late-1980s-style deficits.

Should Wall Street's estimates for this year's shortfall come to pass, the government will be borrowing roughly 3 percent of the size of the $10 trillion U.S. economy.

While that's a far cry from the 6 percent of gross domestic product the Ronald Reagan administration borrowed in fiscal 1983 -- the highest proportion ever -- the swing from budget surpluses into deficits is almost that large. The shift from 2000's $236 billion surplus to a $300 billion shortfall in 2003 would amount to more than $500 billion.

"We clearly have a very substantial deficit problem without adding another round of tax cuts," said Bob Bixby, executive director of the Concord Coalition, a budget deficit watchdog founded in the 1990s.

"It just looks like the deficit will balloon."

MORE, BIGGER SALES

Already faced with red ink, the Treasury is limited on how it can tap the bond market for new cash. Fund managers are also getting wise to the winds of change after several banner years in government bonds and are now shifting their money into other assets like stocks and corporate debt.

That means Wall Street dealers will have a harder time underwriting huge bond sales and will be forced to offer higher yields in order to entice reluctant customers.

Many of those customers are foreigners -- the Japanese are easily the single largest holders of Treasuries -- so an increase in borrowing suggests the U.S. will be sucking up yet more of the world's available capital.

It also suggests the Bush administration will not be able to soften its strong dollar stance since the threat of currency losses could scare offshore investors away from U.S. debt.

American exporters have long complained they are hampered by what they claim is an overvalued dollar.

With Treasury selling a whopping $27 billion every month in two-year notes and about $30 billion every week in Treasury bills, bond trading desks are abuzz the government may revive three-year note sales, which were discontinued back in 1998.

Meanwhile, five-year notes have borne the brunt of selling over the past few sessions as most traders and analysts expect the government to jack up sales of these maturities and perhaps move them to monthly instead of quarterly sales.

"There's clearly some jitters in the market around the stimulus and what that means for Treasury supply," said Marra.

Pizz
(01/07/2003; 18:06:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93696)
Makumba
Re: Stable Industries in recession

Food, booze, tobacco, prescription drugs, and anything else you can think of that are personal necessities or addictive.

Pizz
misetich
(01/07/2003; 18:36:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93697)
Soros - The financial status of some of the largest banks could even be brought into question.
http://www.euromoney.comSnip:

Many are also wondering if the Gramm-Leach-Bailey Act, which banks lobbied so hard to get passed to reverse Glass-Steagall, is not a curse in disguise. George Soros says he believes the Senate hearings on banks� structured finance assistance to Enron may lead to a flood of class-action suits. The financial status of some of the largest banks could even be brought into question.
He adds that if the Fed has to intervene to support these banks it will probably mean a much greater revision of the regulatory system than we have so far seen. He thinks we could see a regulatory separating of financial functions. "Perhaps we need a modern version of the Glass-Steagall Act," he says. "But things will have to get worse before that happens."
............
Regulation or bust
Much of the financial boom of the late 1990s was a result of this deregulation. Banks can thank senator Philip Gramm (and indeed have) for a great deal of deregulatory legislation that opened up their activities and allowed them to operate, on occasion, with minimal surveillance.
..........� �
Gramm is in many ways the archetypal politician of deregulation, and his faith in the market's ability to regulate itself and suspicion of clumsy New Deal-style regulation led to the freeing of energy derivatives from almost all regulation, and the abolition of Glass-Steagall.
These moves in turn helped the boom in energy and telecom derivatives, the feverish wave of financial mergers and acquisitions in the late 1990s and the creation of banking monsters such as Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase.
************

Misetich

JP Morgan - a banking monster - a derivative monster - an accident waiting to happen -

When?

Soros must be careful - JP Morgan might report him to the SEC for starting "rumors"

Got gold?
elevator guy
(01/07/2003; 18:43:30 MDT - Msg ID: 93698)
Euro gold backing?
Ok, everybody don't jump on me at once, but I have to ask, what is the difference between the so-called gold backing of the US Dollar, and that of the Euro? Percentage wise, or other subtleties.

Is there any real difference in the way they are "backed"?

I don't see a "search" feature for this forum, otherwise I wouldn't clutter the netscape with my question. Maybe if I buy some gold from Michael? :)

Thanks!!!
Arcticfox
(01/07/2003; 19:14:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93699)
No more "bone pile" data...
Bush Administration quashes Layoff Statistics
by David Lazarus - SF Chronicle � Sunday January 05, 2003 at 11:56 AM


The Bush administration, under fire for its handling of the economy, has quietly killed off a Labor Department program that tracked mass layoffs by U.S. companies.

Shooting the messenger: Report on layoffs killed

The Bush administration, under fire for its handling of the economy, has quietly killed off a Labor Department program that tracked mass layoffs by U.S. companies.

The statistic, which had been issued monthly and was closely watched by hard-hit Silicon Valley, served as a pulse reading of corporate America's financial health.

There's still plenty of economic data available charting employment trends nationwide. But the mass-layoffs stat comprised an easy-to-understand overview of which industries are in the greatest distress and which workers are bearing the brunt of the turmoil.

"It was a visible number," said Gary Schlossberg, senior economist at Wells Capital Management in San Francisco. "In times like these, it was a good window on how businesses were cutting back."

No longer. But then, businesses cutting back didn't exactly jibe with the White House's recent declarations that prosperity is right around the corner.

You had to look pretty hard just to learn that the mass-layoffs stat had been scotched. No announcement was made by the Labor Department, and no prominent mention of the change was posted at the department's Web site.

In fact, news of the program's termination came only in the form of a single paragraph buried deep within a press release issued on Christmas Eve about November's mass layoffs.

It simply said that funding for the program had dried up and that the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to find an alternative source of funding.

No doubt as intended, the announcement slipped by virtually unnoticed. Even state officials were surprised to learn of the demise of what they called an important, if downbeat, barometer of the nation's economy.

Sharon Brown oversaw compilation of the mass-layoffs number at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington. She was pleased to blow her agency's horn.

HIGH-QUALITY PROGRAM

"This was a high-quality program, producing timely information on important developments in the labor market," Brown said.

According to the bureau's final monthly report, U.S. employers initiated 2, 150 mass layoffs in November, affecting 240,028 workers. A mass layoff is defined as any firing involving at least 50 people.

California by far had the most employees given the boot -- 62,764, primarily in administrative services. Wisconsin was a distant second with 15, 544, followed by Texas with 14,624.

Between January and November, 17,799 mass layoffs were recorded and nearly 2 million workers were handed their hats by businesses.

Brown said that because of a bureaucratic quirk, the $6.6 million in annual funding for the mass-layoffs program -- money primarily doled out to state officials to gather relevant data -- was channeled through the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration.

FUNDING ELIMINATED

When that agency decided it needed more cash to handle its own affairs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was told to look elsewhere for its budget needs.

Apparently no extra money was to be found anywhere within the Labor Department, which had a total budget of $44.4 billion last year, up from $39.2 billion in 2001.

"With very finite discretionary resources, we have to make difficult decisions," said Mason Bishop, the Labor Department's deputy assistant secretary for employment training. "We didn't see how this program was helping workers re-enter the workforce."

Coincidentally, the same conclusion was reached in 1992 when the first President Bush canceled the Mass-Layoffs Statistics program amid election-year charges that he had bungled handling of the economy.

REVIVED BY CLINTON

The program was resuscitated two years later by the Clinton administration.

Now Bush the younger is following in his father's footsteps, once again deciding that the American people have no real need to know how many mass layoffs are made each month.

"It's questionable what value this program has for workers," insisted Bishop.

On the other hand, the Labor Department this week released a sweeping study of volunteer work over the past year, reporting that 59 million Americans donated their time and know-how to helping others.

President Bush has spoken repeatedly about the virtues of volunteerism since taking office in 2001.

VOLUNTEERISM MEASURED

During his own stint in the White House, the elder Bush was a proud advocate of community service. That was also the last time the Labor Department was told to devote its finite discretionary resources to a study of volunteer work by U.S. citizens.

Then, as now, it's difficult to see how feel-good surveys of volunteer activities contribute to an understanding of the economy's vitality or the re- employment of displaced workers.

There does seem to be merit, though, in easily seeing how many people have received pink slips as companies tighten their belts, and which states and industries are in facing the greatest challenges.

"The United States economy is growing again," Bush declared in a holiday radio address from his Texas ranch. "This economy is strong and it can be stronger."

And if not, best to just sweep the whole mess under the rug.

E-mail David Lazarus at dlazarus@sfchronicle.com.


add your comments


Mr
by Lee Wilburn � Tuesday January 07, 2003 at 02:28 PM
leewilburn@worker.com


The report does nothing to create jobs (actually niether report) and should have been left shut down. What Bush should be taken to task for is not shutting this down by why has he not shut down more useless crap of the same kind.

The writer seems bent on beating up Bush, and that's great. I am just offering this as a substitute stick to beat up on the GOP and actually do some good at the same time. Shutting down useless crap whether it is postive or negative in terms of the GOP has got to be a good thing.



add your comments


Mr.
by Michael � Tuesday January 07, 2003 at 03:25 PM


Yes, by all means, eliminate any information that might:

help define if we have a healthy or unhealthy economy, and
determine the scope of our current problems.
The current administration seems anxious to have "report cards" on education (standardized tests are used to assess teachers, principals, and school districts) but let's not look at information that might be used to understand how the Federal government's decisions are impacting the economy.
Yes, thankfully there are lots of other sources of information on how the economy is doing. But that does not excuse eliminating this one.

As for the cost justification, give me a break. We probably spend more on toilet seats for one navy ship than this report costs.


add your comments





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Trojan
(01/07/2003; 19:18:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93700)
Act Now Against War
In the 2000 Presidential if more Democratic voters went out to VOTE, Al Gore would be President and there would NOT be a War about to start.

Now British Citizens might have a chance to STOP the WAR.

If they don't and a War starts against Iraq the consequences might be Very Bad for the USA.

This might just be a defining moment in our lifetime.

There is a lot of anger around the world against the USA and Bush's policies and war spewings. Not against the USA itself and it's citizens.

If thousands upon thousands of Innocent Iraq citizens including women and children start showing up on the TV screens of the World being Killed, there will be Hell to pay.

If we thought Terrorism was bad before I fear for the future.

If the World starts fighting back financially against the USA by withdrawing their funds and they just MIGHT if things get bad enough, All the fighting forces of the USA won't be able to defend the US Dollar. Gold will see those funds going there and in the other currencies including the Euro.

Is this really about Saddam or about Bush and Cheney Oil ?

Here is an article that was just posted on The Guardian (Edited)

Act now against war
Editited Article: Full Link here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,869807,00.html

Act now against war

Those against an attack on Iraq must do more than shake their heads at the television

George Monbiot
Tuesday January 7, 2003
The Guardian

The rest of Europe must be wondering whether Britain has gone into hibernation. At the end of this month our prime minister is likely to announce the decision he made months ago, that Britain will follow the US into Iraq. If so, then two or three weeks later, the war will begin. Unless the UN inspectors find something before January 27, this will be a war without even the flimsiest of pretexts: an unprovoked attack whose purpose is to enhance the wealth and power of an American kleptocracy.

Far from promoting peace, it could be the first in a series of imperial wars. The gravest global crisis since the end of the cold war is three weeks away, and most of us seem to be asking why someone else doesn't do something about it.

It is not often that the people of these islands have an opportunity to change the course of world events.

Bush knows that the Americans' approval of his war depends, in part, upon its credibility overseas: opinion polls have shown that many of those who would support an international attack would withdraw that support if they perceived that the US was acting alone.

An international attack, in this case, means an attack supported by Britain. If Blair pulled out, Bush could be forced to think again. Blair will pull out only if he perceives that the political cost of sticking with Bush is greater than the cost of deserting him.

Bush's war, in other words, depends upon our indifference. As Gramsci remarked: "What comes to pass does so not so much because a few people want it to happen, as because the mass of citizens abdicate their responsibility and let things be."

On January 18, demonstrators will seek to blockade the armed forces' joint headquarters at Northwood, in north London.
Three days later, there'll be a mass lobby of parliament; at 6pm on the day the war is announced, protesters will gather in almost every town centre in Britain.

On February 15, there'll be a massive rally in London. These actions are critically important, as they'll demonstrate the level of public opposition. But they're unlikely, by themselves, to provoke one of Blair's famous sweats. We must raise the temperature.


We must oblige people to recognise that something unprecedented in recent times is taking place, that Bush, assisted by Blair's moral slipstreaming, is seeking to summon a war from a largely peaceful world.

We will fail unless we stage a political drama commensurate with the scale of the threat.

All this will, of course, be costly. But there comes a point at which political commitment is meaningless unless you are prepared to act on it. According to the latest opinion poll, some 42% of British people - as against the 38% who support it - want to stop this war. But if our action is confined to shaking our heads at the television set, Blair might as well have a universal mandate. Are you out there? Or are you waiting for someone else to act on your behalf?

Details of the actions already planned can be found at www.stopwar.org.uk

Guardian Unlimited � Guardian Newspapers Limited 2003
mikal
(01/07/2003; 19:19:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93701)
@elevator guy
I have read and heard information about this for years and still do not fully understand it. But the more people here and elsewhere discuss it, the clearer it becomes. There are some people, including a significant number posting here, who understand it very thoroughly. Also, some aspects of the current gold cover situation worldwide, lend themselves much easier to agreement, like where is gold heading and who benefits. Finally, "gold backing" is misleading. The US Treasury gold is backing it's international payments, bonds and other liabilities as collateral. As you say, it is different with the Euro. Belgium won't say "backing", but uses words like "associated", "companion", "linked", or "coupled".
mikal
(01/07/2003; 19:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93702)
@elevator guy
When I said "...as you say the euro is different.", I didn't mean to imply that the reserve gold of the ECB or seperate countries making up their zone does not support THEIR international payments, bond and other liabilities. Just that it is somehow different from the current U.S. laws. Also the euro is ITSELF supported by each mark-to-market adjustment of the total ECB reserves (and monetary aggregates?) to the market price of gold. This gives greater backing to the currency in % gold of the total reserves= greater strength and stability in world markets. Unless the currency float is expanded (such as for adding countries to the zone, and for an increase in euro payment for oil and gold vs old dollar payments).
mikal
(01/07/2003; 19:46:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93703)
@elevator guy
The current 15% gold cover being used by the Europeans is going to need a much higher POG. As I've been told, the ratio will be maintained even as countries come into the zone. Imagine how much paper will be needed combined with digits! And then add that demanded by the Arabs and Asians and many others who are coming on line by increasing reserves and planning to shift to euro's for payment of oil, gas, gold and other assets. This means that the POG will need to fluctuate, to adapt, adjust, to be "free". Certainly freer than a market peg by a government on an artificial "standard"!!!
Cytek
(01/07/2003; 19:54:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93704)
Bob Chapmans latest
On January second the US government Plunge Protection Team showed us what market manipulation is all about. First we were told by the Institution of Supply Management that their factory index rose to 54.7 in December from 49.2 in November, which is almost an impossibility considering other contributing figures. That was accompanied by a dollar that was rising versus the yen, euro and pound. Then came the JP Morgan Chase announcement that they would only have to take a $400 million loss. A deal was supposedly cut with the insurance companies for them to take a $600 million loss. The arrangement has US Government fingerprints all over it. Our guess is the insurance companies were told to take a $600 million loss in spite of having an airtight case. The government probably set up a method of covering their losses. That, of course, overshadowed Morgan's $1.3 billion pre-tax loss. Then in a still-thin market the Dow advanced 266 points, S&P 29 and NASDAQ 49 points. We called it classical manipulation. As an afterthought Morgan CEO Harrison said, JPM does not have any "real" exposure to gold. "I don't know where that rumor keeps coming from." We do, from our spies inside Morgan. Now they are having the junkyard dogs at the SEC come after us for uncovering the truth. We can promise you one thing: neither we, nor GATA will shut up. Morgan, the SEC and the whole cabal are terrified that the public will find out that the US Treasury is covering up their losses and guaranteeing their exposure. Don't forget Barrick is part of this also. If we can drag all these criminals into the legal sunlight, not only will the gold producer go under but also their management since 1987 will lose everything they have in court. The criminality is overwhelming. The professionals on Wall Street are not inept when it comes to gold. They are terrorized into silence. Remember, markets climb a wall of worry and that is exactly what is happening to gold. The cartel tried everything to knock the price down $5 to $6 but had to settle for minus $1.70 while silver rose a penny. We surely have them on the run.
makcumka
(01/07/2003; 19:58:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93705)
@ Pizz
Thank you
ElGordo
(01/07/2003; 20:06:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93706)
Hedge funds buying
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,630-536055,00.htmlFigures released yesterday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in New York showed that hedge funds last month bought contracts for 10.4 million ounces of gold, up from 6.8 million the month before. Alan Williamson, head of commodities research at HSBC, said: "That is the largest net long position since August 1993."
______________
Some good positive information on investors interest in gold-
however article ends urging not to get in -the boom is over.
Funny, I never remember them urging us to get in to gold,
now its to late to get in -lol
ElGordo
(01/07/2003; 20:11:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93707)
If this is accurate, not much extra capacity
A Reuters survey of industry officials and analysts found on
Tuesday that the world's total spare capacity was 2.77 million
barrels per day, all of it in OPEC.

Spare capacity is defined in the oil industry as wells which can
be opened up within a month, and where output can be sustained
for 3 months. In Saudi Arabia, with the world's largest oil
reserves, capacity stands at 9.5 million, some 1.45 million
above current output.

OPEC OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY

capacity output spare capacity

Saudi Arabia 9.50 8.05 1.45
UAE 2.45 2.05 0.40
Nigeria 2.50 2.10 0.40
Iran 3.77 3.60 0.17
Kuwait 2.10 1.97 0.13
Libya 1.42 1.35 0.07
Algeria 1.05 1.00 0.05
Indonesia 1.10 1.05 0.05
Qatar 0.75 0.70 0.05

TOTAL 30.39 25.32 2.77
-----------------------------------------
2.77 million barrels per day world spare capacity
Does this sound about right?
Cytek
(01/07/2003; 20:26:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93708)
"BlackBlade" Quoted by Bob Chapman in his latest report
COMMODITIES
The latest figures for US Crude Oil inventories have dropped to the lowest level since 1975. OPEC's crude oil output fell to 25 MBD from 27 million barrels per day in November. The very cold snowy winter has also helped increase heating oil consumption. Venezuelan exports are off 90% and it will take 45 days for them to be normalized after the strike is over. Last week US inventories fell 9.1 million barrels, or 3.2% to 277.5 million barrels or 10% lower than the same week a year earlier.
*****
Working gas in storage was 2,417 Bcf as of Friday, December 27, 2002, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 123 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 572 Bcf less than last year at this time and 95 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,512 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 128 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 68 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 13 Bcf below the 5-year average of 677 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 29 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 46 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 26 Bcf. At 2,417 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.
Black Blade: This is the upper end of withdrawal predicted and if predictions for an Artic blast hold true along with declining production we could see some rocketing NG and electricity rates on top of already rising costs. And the last couple of weeks were warmer than the average temperature. This is coincident with rising oil prices, record low oil inventories, threat of war in Iraq, and Venezuelan reductions in production and exports. Not a pretty picture for the US economy. "Interesting Times."
The Invisible Hand
(01/07/2003; 20:31:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93709)
Other dangers for Soros
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2594273.stm
Misetich said in msg#: 93697
JP Morgan - a banking monster - a derivative monster �
an accident waiting to happen -
When?
Soros must be careful - JP Morgan might report him
to the SEC for starting "rumors"

In the link is what happened to Soros just before Christmas.
Soros must also be careful now not to trade in banks shares,
as otherwise he may be condemned again for insider trading.
Financial legislation (including antitrust and SEC rules) makes
it almost mpossible for anybody to act on information.
That's why goldgate has not yet exploded. Too many specific
(i.e. financial) rules, no Hayekian general rules of conduct.
Note that one of the now dead co-defendants of Soros in the
Paris judgment is Edmond Safra. Monaco, remember?
Soros's courage must be applauded


Friday, 20 December, 2002, 20:01 GMT
SNIP:
Billionaire financier and philanthropist George Soros has
been fined 2.2m euros (�1.4m; $2.3m) for insider trading.
A Paris court found Mr Soros guilty of profiting from inside
knowledge of a 1988 takeover bid for Societe Generale, a
French bank.
Mr Soros, who was not in court, denied the allegations.
In a statement he said he was "astounded and dismayed" by
the ruling, and would "appeal the decision to the highest level
necessary".
"Let me repeat now what I have maintained from the start: at
no point was I in possession of inside information regarding
Societe Generale," he said.
"The charges against me are unfounded and without merit."

Mr Soros and three other defendants, the court found, bought
Societe Generale stock when it was cheap, and cashed in their
investment when the price rose after the bid became public.
Two other businessmen implicated in the scandal - Edmond
Safra and Robert Maxwell - have since died.

Cometose
(01/07/2003; 20:36:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93710)
TENDING our own backyard
www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/analysis.htmMore intersting information to file away in your "geopolitical tensions" file.....regarding the "AXIS OF GOOD" .
Seem to me more fires springing up everyday.....
the battle lines are being drawn......
We're going to have to have minor in selfdefense ( martial arts)
to protect ourselves ......thanks to BIG BROTHER BIG MOUTH....... they can't get at him , we of his clan will be close enough .....GUILT by ASSOCIATION..



Isn't this how WARS GET STARTED....Everyone seems to be playing with their cards close to their chests and the ramifications of what's going on out there isn't being covered in the (FREE) press.

Have to learn a new language and act like a native in a foreign country so the "PERSECUTORS" won't know who I am.
Become invisible , I can live with that....go practice my French . wear a Beret , and sing........ what a plan...
Maybe I should start with a closer destination ,,,perhaps a place that my sons and I can live and learn SPANISH and avoid the draft... that will surely come with WWIII....

THIS IS WHAT I CALL BEGINNING THE 21ST CENTURY WITH A BANG...... or are we .....GOING OUT WITH A BANG.....

Plan and be flexible ....get another passport....(Canada)..
GO to EUROPE ....they have the EURO...they are going to get preferential treatment...

Cometose
(01/07/2003; 20:56:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93711)
TENDING our own backyard
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/analysis.htmtest
ElGordo
(01/07/2003; 21:07:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93712)
Falling margins
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B756AC942%2D682C%2D4BFE%2DB5B0%2DFF224AECBA90%7D&siteid=mktwPOWAY, Calif. (CBS.MW) -- Gateway shares fell in after-hours trading Tuesday after the personal computer maker lowered its fourth-quarter revenue forecast and increased its loss estimate to between 18 cents and 19 cents a share.

Gateway (GTW: news, chart, profile) officials said they expect revenue to come in at $1.06 billion, down from earlier forecasts of $1.2 billion. The company previously estimated it would lose 13 cents a share for the period ended Dec. 31.

Reaction was swift, and in after-hours trading Gateway shares fell 22 cents to $2.95 after giving up 13 cents in the regular session.

More bad news for Gateway could be on the way. Gateway also said it is evaluating a dispute with a major partner that might result in an additional net loss of up to 3 cents a share.

Chief executive Ted Waitt said that even though Gateway sold about 720,000 PCs during the quarter, the company experienced pressures on its margins following a series of promotions meant to spur PC demand.
Black Blade
(01/07/2003; 21:20:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93713)
Re: Rock - Unemployment and The Prez's Proposal

You may find this interesting - On my way to the gym and the post office this afternoon I stopped by the local unemployment office as it is on the way. I went in to look over the job postings. It was quite pathetic to watch all the people looking at the few listings (mostly service industry jobs like fast food and dish washers, a few laborers and a few medical personnel as a VA hospital is located here). I talked to one of the reps as I reregistered as unemployed in case there a worthwhile earth science position became available. He said that he believes that there will be an extension to the extension. So there's hope for the desperate masses still searching for employment and who have exhausted their benefits (including extensions). I can't verify that this will actually happen of course but that was his impression. At least there is probably a $3,000 work search grant in the Prez's proposal that can be applied toward search expenses. I can almost see the private employment agencies drooling over that.

As far as the "marriage penalty" is concerned, I think a case can be made that married couples (especially those with children) actually should pay more in taxes as they use more public services than singles. However, singles don't tend to vote or be vocal which is their downfall. I can see where the Dems will use the "class warfare" issue for political ammo. However, there are a lot of elderly who use dividends to supplement their meager retirement benefits, especially from the higher yielding "widows and orphan" stocks. So this could backfire. I think that the Republicrats will likely screw this all up no matter how it goes. Actually it will help me slightly as I have a lot of dividend bearing shares that I use to get by on for now, but I don't think this new proposal will help with my energy trusts and REITs as these are non-taxed pass through payments. I am sure there are a lot of CPA's and Tax Preparers out there scratching their heads right about now.

- Black Blade
ElGordo
(01/07/2003; 21:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93714)
More job cuts
Philadelphia, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Cigna Corp. will eliminate 3,900 jobs, or 9.2 percent of its workforce, after the third-largest U.S. health insurer wasn't able to charge customers enough to make up for higher expenses.

Costs related to the reductions pared fourth-quarter earnings by $98 million, Cigna said in a statement. Cigna, which already cut 700 jobs in November, expects to eliminate another 2,150 in the first quarter and the rest by the end of the year.
Black Blade
(01/07/2003; 21:36:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93715)
Market Wrap Up � Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm
Snippit:

Will The Rally Hold?

Finally, looking at the news in the markets mid-month on corporate earnings, the economy and geopolitical tensions that seem to mount each day, I would be surprised if the New Year rally lasts beyond the end of next week. Corporate earnings confessions should begin by the end of next month. Investors may not know what the real picture is since most of the reporting will emphasize whether companies beat, met or missed lower revolving estimates. I expect that earnings estimates will start to come down even more so that they can beat estimates as we get closer to the actual reporting period.

Despite the growing mountains of debt in this country at all levels of society, analysts and money managers remain decidedly upbeat, even more so than they were at the peak of the bubble. The chief argument for buying and investing in stocks is that they have fallen for three straight years and will unlikely fall for the fourth straight year. That only happened once during the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression that followed. However, monetary and fiscal policy is following the same path. Today's situation is very much reminiscent of the 1920's and the early 1930's. The only difference between today and then is things are much worse today than they were during the start of the Great Depression. Debt is higher at all levels�consumer, corporate, and government. We are now a debtor nation instead of a creditor nation. Stock valuations are higher today than they were before the 1929 crash, and corporate balance sheets are in terrible shape. As I see it, the dollar is much more vulnerable, and so are consumers and the financial industry due to the explosion in credit. The fact that nobody seems to talk about this is very disturbing. In the US, Washington and Wall Street believe all problems can be solved by borrowing and printing more money. The fall in the value of the dollar and the rise in the value of gold and other commodities are telling us the financial markets see this as problematic. The fate of this nation rests on the dollar and the bond market.


Black Blade: Puplava really does give a good rundown on the deteriorating state of affairs in the country. It is a bit too comprehensive to outline here. But it is an interesting read. He discusses the "Proposal" and the crumbling budgets on the nation's cities and states. Much the same as I have discussed here before but he puts it in good perspective.

Black Blade
(01/07/2003; 21:44:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93716)
Congress tackles unemployment
http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDCD94AA6%2D82E8%2D4C1C%2DB01F%2D262CBC3FCFB5%7D&siteid=mktw Senate clears bill extending benefits; House next

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- In its first piece of legislative business, the new Senate on Tuesday passed a $7.2 billion measure to extend federal unemployment benefits for 13 weeks. The House is set to take up the measure on Wednesday. The extension would apply to workers who have used up all 26 weeks of state aid but had not exhausted their 13 weeks of emergency federal aid when the program expired Dec. 28. It also covers workers expected to exhaust their state benefits between now and June 1.

Black Blade: This suggests that perhaps there won't be an extension to the extension. That could affect about 2 million of the unemployed who exhausted their extension benefits (if I recall that number being correct). Perhaps they will qualify for the work search grant though. If anything this proposal is a blatant admission that the economy is in dire straights even as the primates on Wall Street chatter on about "economic recovery". Looks grim!


Black Blade
(01/07/2003; 21:57:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93717)
Strangest state tax laws
http://money.cnn.com/2003/01/06/pf/taxes/q_oddtaxes/index.htm
You'll pay taxes on illegal drugs in 'Bama and on Pepsi in Chicago. But wait, there's more.

Snippit:


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) � Like it or not, taxes are a fact of life. From paycheck deductions to the added cost of eating out, it's the price we pay for social programs, highway maintenance and public schools. Not all taxes, however, are rooted in common sense. Some, in fact, are downright bizarre. In certain parts of the country, you'll pay the government special taxes for takeout food, for buying a deck of cards, or even for possessing illegal drugs. And with state budgets becoming increasingly pinched, experts say miscellaneous taxes are on the rise -- from a new "jock tax" in Cincinnati to a 200 percent increase in sales tax on liquor in Alaska. "Many of these taxes are desperate measures states [undertook] to raise funds," said John Barry, chief economist at the Tax Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit.

Black Blade: There are some "interesting" taxes listed. I still remember California's loony "snack tax" for example. The "Jock Tax" is quite funny. The moral of that story is: "shame on you for beating our Lakers". I guess this is just a sign of the moral decay of the US. Primate politicians rob at the point of a pen. If they didn't take up politics as a career I would wager that they would be street criminals or in prison. Oops! Did I say wager? Yep, There's a "wagering tax" too. Hmmm�

Black Blade
(01/07/2003; 22:24:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93718)
Gold Companies See Opportunities
http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/newsArticles.asp?guid=%7B17B20B21%2D97B4%2D47AE%2D97B7%2DDC5208A48A64%7D&doctype=2005&siteid=mktw&selCount=50&value=gold∝erty=word&
Snippit:

Companies like Goldcorp Inc (CA:G) , a mid-tier Canadian producer which has accumulated over 180,000 ounces in gold bars, said the price was not high enough to warrant selling its bullion stocks. "We don't think it's high enough to consider selling the gold because we think we're still a long way from the top," said Chris Bradbrook, Goldcorp's vice president for corporate development.

Bruce Hansen, senior vice-president and chief financial officer for Newmont Mining Corp (NEM) , the world's biggest gold producer, said a higher gold price meant bigger profits and a chance to pay down debt and reduce hedgebooks further. "We're not going to turn on the spigots in terms of production increases here, but there are incremental components of various of our mines that we will re-evaluate...that were marginal at lower prices," Hansen told Reuters. "We will still as an industry see less production in 2003 than we saw in 2002 and it'll be a slow turn assuming that these prices hold," he said. "I don't think production will regenerate at a rapid rate here so we think there's more upside than downside."

Jay Taylor, chief executive of Placer Dome Inc (CA:PDG) , North America's third-largest gold producer, said the company could relook at projects that were shelved because of low prices, but were now sustainable at the current price. Taylor said acquisitions were more challenging in a higher gold price environment. Taylor said the industry had shifted its stance on gold forward sales because investors were looking for more exposure to the rising gold price.


Black Blade: The industry appears to believe that there is yet a lot more upside to the Gold price. Companies continue to aggressively reduce hedge books as investors demand it. New exploration and production at current prices is unlikely and production continues to decline. Much the same as I have outlined as part of the fundamental case for Gold (and Silver as well) in the Daily Market Reports. The temporary slump in the Gold price is just a reaction to the "Proposal" and reports of OPEC increasing oil supply (which is really a crock). Once the euphoria dissipates and an objective look at the numbers as well as the flood of earnings warnings from Wall Street investors will turn their heads toward Gold again. As I mentioned last night, I would hold off on any new positions in Gold shares for now and be more inclined to accumulate the "real deal" physical on these temporary pullbacks. The Chinese and Japanese will continue to lead the way as purchases are reported to be very strong once again.

Trojan
(01/07/2003; 23:19:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93719)
Why Do Americans Allow This To Go On ?
I had posted something on the Gold Eagle "Gold Forum" earlier tonight about a rumor I had read about recently, about JFK being killed because of his wish to abolish the Federal Reserve.

Since I had stated it there I wanted to back it up so I did some research Via Google and found the following article that I thought merited wider disclosure and discussion.

So in the interest of Open Discussion on a VERY IMPORTANT Subject here is the Message that I posted on Gold Forum earlier tonight.

Here is the Exerpt from this article Re:
Kennedy:

On June 4, 1963 John F. Kennedy issued Executive Order 11110. This order called for the issuance of a new currency, the "United States Note". $4,292,893 of this new currency was actually placed into circulation.

The new currency was to be distributed through the U.S. Treasury and not the Federal Reserve.

President Kennedy dismissed the Federal Reserve System and ordered the U.S. government to restore its Constitutional mandate of controlling the money.

Three weeks later, President Kennedy was assassinated. Lyndon Johnson's first act upon taking over the office of President was to rescind executive order 11110, and all the new currency was taken out of circulation.�

End Of Exerpt

Whole Article to Follow:

From the Federal Reserve Banking System to President Bush's secret police, the United States is quickly changing from the "land of the free" to one more military state, little different from those the world has seen throughout history, most recently in Nazi Germany and the USSR.

The Federal Reserve Banking System
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes her laws."
Meyer Rothschild

For the last 98 years a private corporation has run the United States of America. Article I, Section 8, Clause 5, of the United States Constitution provides that Congress shall have the power to coin money and regulate the value thereof and of any foreign coins.

But that is not the case. For nearly a century the United States government has had no power to issue money, control the flow of money, or to even distribute it.
That belongs to a private corporation registered in the State of Delaware, the Federal Reserve Bank.�

In 1836 President Andrew Jackson abolished the "Bank of the United States", America's central bank and then eliminated the national debt without having to impose an income tax.

In 1913 under pressure of blackmail, President Woodrow Wilson established the Federal Reserve System under the premise of "supplanting the dictatorship of the private banking institutions and to stabilize the inflexibility of national banknote supplies".

Representative Charles A. Lindberg, Sr., the father of the famous aviator, was a member of the Banking and Currency Committee. He opposed the Federal Reserve Act and gave a speech on January 20, 1915.

"The system is private, conducted for the sole purpose of obtaining the greatest possible profits from the use of other people's money, and in the interest of the stockholders and those allied with them." Unfortunately he was not listened to.

With the creation of the Federal Reserve a new currency was issued, the Federal Reserve Note. Take out a one-dollar bill and read what is printed across the top.� The Federal Reserve was to unite and supervise the entire banking system, control the expansion or contraction of currency, and regulate the flow of money to the commercial banks through the establishment of 12 Federal Reserve Banks.

The Federal Reserve is controlled by private banking interest and by Presidential appointment - but it is still a private organization and not a government entity.

In 1913, President Wilson's creation of the Federal Reserve System established a three-tier monetary system in the United States - the holders of money (public, government, business and institutions; the commercial banks that borrow from the public and issue loans; and the central bank or Federal Reserve that has a monopoly on the issuing of money. The

Federal Reserve and not the government now controlled the monetary policy of the United States. This is in direct violation of the United States Constitution.

On April 27, 1936 the United States Congress tried vainly to rest control of the monetary system back with bill HR92163. The preamble of this bill stated "The committee had under consideration the bill (HR 92163 to restore to Congress its constitutional power to issue money and regulate the value thereof; to provide monetary income to the people of the United States at a fixed and equitable purchasing power of the dollar, ample at all times to enable the people to buy wanted goods and services at full capacity of the industries and commercial facilities of the United States; to abolish the practice of creating bank deposits by private groups upon fractional reserves, and for other purposes.". Under pressure from the banking industry, the bill never became law.

On June 4, 1963 John F. Kennedy issued Executive Order 11110. This order called for the issuance of a new currency, the "United States Note". $4,292,893 of this new currency was actually placed into circulation. The new currency was to be distributed through the U.S. Treasury and not the Federal Reserve. President Kennedy dismissed the Federal Reserve System and ordered the U.S. government to restore its Constitutional mandate of controlling the money.

Three weeks later, President Kennedy was assassinated. Lyndon Johnson's first act upon taking over the office of President was to rescind executive order 11110, and all the new currency was taken out of circulation.�

In 1957 Senator George Malone of Nevada, while speaking of the Federal Reserve, said, "I believe that if the people of this nation fully understood what Congress has done to them of the past 49 years, they would move on Washington (revolt), they would not wait for an election� It adds up to a preconceived plan to destroy the economic and social independence of the United States." That was 45 years ago.�

With the creation of the Federal Reserve Corporation, came income taxes. With income taxes came the Internal Revenue Service, which is also a private organization and has no organizational or legal ties to the U.S. Treasury or any other government organization. It is a private industry built for the collection of taxes to be paid to the Federal Reserve Corporation, NOT the federal government. This is to pay interest on money loaned to the government by the Federal Reserve.�

More that half the shareholdings in the Federal Reserve Bank are controlled by large New York City banks, including National City Bank, National Bank of Commerce, First National Bank, Chase National Bank, and Marine National Bank. When Rockefeller's National City Bank merged with J.P. Morgan's First National Bank in 1955, the Rockefeller group owned 22 percent of the shares of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which in turn holds the majority of shares in the Federal Reserve System - 53 percent.
But who really owns what? Here arc the top controllers of the Federal Reserve Bank�

1. Rothchild banks of London and Berlin.
2. Lazard Brothers Banks of Paris.
3. Israel Moses Seif Banks of Italy.
4. Warburg Bank of Hamburg and Amsterdam.
5. Lehman Brothers Bank of New York.
6. Kuhn, Loeb bank of New York.
7. Chase Manhattan Bank of New York, which controls all of the other 11 Federal Reserve Banks.
8. Goldman, Sachs Bank of New York.�

The Federal Reserve Bank has challenged this ownership combination, but a study of Standards and Poor will verify the ownerships. This means that the controlling interest of our national monetary system is foreign.

In 1797, John Adams wrote to Thomas Jefferson, "All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise, not from defects of the Constitution or Confederation; not from any want of honor or virtue, as much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation."

In simple terms, the United States Government borrows money from the Federal Reserve Bank with interest.

Let's say that the Government wants $1 billion. The Federal Reserve prints $1 billion - based upon no hard asset and lends it to the Government at a high interest rate. The bank did not have the original money; it created it and made a bookkeeping entry. Like you writing yourself a check without funds and cashing it.

The Federal Reserve controls the flow of money, making it tight and creating unemployment or printing more than actually exists and creates inflation.

It is, in essence, a paper corporation, which controls the entire economic well being of the nation. The National Debt is based upon this money, borrowed from the Federal Reserve, which controlling interests are foreign investors.

If the Federal Reserve disappeared today and the Federal Government issued it own money, these loans would go away along with their interest payments. When this happens the National Debt ceases to exist along with the need for income taxes.�

In 1929 the dollar was based on gold, meaning for every dollar in circulation there was an equal amount in gold. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York exported over $111 million in gold to France and England. The other banks of the Federal Reserve followed suit. Once nearly all the gold was removed from US banks, it was decided to remove the US dollar from the gold standard and prohibit the ownership of gold in this country.

As of 1993, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had $128 billion of gold in its vaults, based on a price of $35 per ounce that the Federal Reserve has basically sold to itself through foreign interests under its control.�

As long as the American public continues to use the Federal Reserve Note for buying and selling, instead of gold or silver coin, or currency backed by gold or silver; they are under the control of the Federal Reserve Corporation and it's shareholders.

No Congress or President has been strong enough to stand up to the foreign-controlled Federal Reserve Bank.
Yet there is a catch, one that President Kennedy recognized before he was slain.

The original deal in 1913 creating the Federal Reserve Bank had a simple back out clause. The investors loaned the United States Government $1 billion. And the back out clause allows the United States to buy out the system for that $1 billion. If the Federal Reserve Bank were bought out and dismantled; and the Congress of the United States took control of the currency, as required in the Constitution, the National Debt would virtually end overnight, and the need for more taxes and even the income tax, itself.

Thomas Jefferson was concise in his early warning to the American nation,

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

Rep Jack Metcalf's speech to Congress - Sep 1999

End Of Article

I have to say in the interests of full disclosure that I am a Canadian citizen.

I Love America and it's people. They are good and kind and decent and hard working.

When I was 20 years old I was working as a junior in an accounting firm and about 1:00 PM on the 22ND of November while adding up some numbers I heard on the radio where I was working the News of the JFK shooting.

I went home immediately. I could NOT work anymore that day. I watched my TV for 3 days including seeing Oswald get shot.

Why am I NOT Surprised that Kennedy was your ONE modern day President who wanted to abolish the Federal Reserve.

A Great Man and a True American Hero and President.

God Bless America.

Maybe when the whole system falls apart and Gold is at $3000 and the US $ at .01 then The Federal Reserve will be abolished like Kennedy wanted for All FREE Americans.



Christian
(01/07/2003; 23:23:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93720)
The difference between credit creation gold and commodity gold.
Recerve Requirements is a tool for monitory policy, computed as % of deposits that banks must hold in cash form. Presently on big banks they are 10% on transaction accounts (checkbook money) and 3% on small banks. There is NO (no) recerve requirements on time deposits and therefore can expand without limit. There is no regulation or law to stop a bank from using an off balance sheet gold loan and deposit it on its own account as a time deposit. I have yet to see a bank that does not use it. There is no need anymore for savings deposit. Matter of fact many banks are giving the depositers the middle finger. Why pay a savings depositor more on interest than the gold lease rate. Why indeed? Banks can and do protect the risk of gold price going up with options or futures contract. So in other words an off balance sheet debt becomes a time deposit that has reserve requirements and therefore can expand without regard to reserve levels. With this process a $1000 off balance sheet gold loan can be turned into credit creation loan of unlimited supply. A 20% reserve requirements a $1,000 can be turned into $5,000, a 10% a $1,000 can be turned into $10,000 at 5%=$20,000, at 2.5%=$40,000, at 1.25%=$80,000 and on and on it expands. 0% requirement it can expand without regard to reserve levels. Commodity gold is for commodity use and priced for commodity use. Credit creation gold is only traded between central banksters and the price is determined by credit creation opportunity use of that gold. Presently that is in the area of $10,500 a troy oz. According to the FED gold will be allowed to move to $467 which will bring credit creation (monitery gold) to be priced at $14,000 and that will be sufficient to give the $ a 15% gold backing like the Euro has.---- I would like to see people with brains far better then this uneducated farm boy to improve the accuracy of this post. I do not need to be ripped apart. I and the rest of the people in this world need to understand what credit is, and what it can do or not do for you. But most important we need to find a better way, and a way out of credit slavery. We need to understand how credit can be forced on you, be it on the federal or state or even local level. The Constitution gives us our freedom, but this credit creation is enslaving us and future children into slavery. There was nodebt on this country of ours before the white man came. Now everything is indepted and belongs to a trust (DTC) owned by the FED.
Trojan
(01/07/2003; 23:47:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93721)
Christian READ THIS
Abolish the Federal Reserve
� 1996 by David W. Neuendorf

I am often impressed to see the power that some Americans have to influence the lives of the rest of us. Look at the recent strike at the GM plant in Dayton.

Here was a single facility making only one of hundreds of different parts for GM cars. The union workers at that facility went on strike, and the whole nation's industry began to slow down for lack of those parts. Now that's leverage.

There is one little understood institution in America whose power over our economy dwarfs that of the autoworkers in Dayton:

The Federal Reserve System.

Whenever the czars at the Fed have a meeting, Presidents, industrial giants, investors, home buyers, everyone with an interest in our economy awaits their verdict with bated breath.

If they decide to raise interest rates, politicians and industries could fall, homes will not be purchased, jobs will be lost. If they decide to lower the rates, officeholders, industries and consumers may prosper, but the inflation rate may increase.

That's a lot of power and responsibility for a handful of people whose names would not be recognized by one in 10,000 Americans.

Too much by far.

The Federal Reserve System was conceived in 1910 by a group of notorious robber barons at a then-secret meeting at J. P. Morgan's estate on Jekyl Island, Georgia. After three years of political machinations, Congress passed the Federal Reserve Act in 1913. The bill was promoted publicly as a plan to reform the nation's monetary system and stabilize the currency by taking control of it out of the hands of big bankers.

In reality, of course, the Act was written by the bankers for the purpose of solidifying their control over our currency.

The people of the United States granted to Congress the power "to coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures" in Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution.

Wisely, we never gave them the constitutional power to delegate this money-creating and regulating responsibility to any private group.

Yet this is exactly what the Federal Reserve Act did.
It created a cartel of private banks, managed by a Board appointed for long terms of office by the president. This group of banks became the sole issuer of U.S. money, with full control over its quantity and thus its value.

How has the Federal Reserve performed in its stated purpose of stabilizing our currency? Soon after its formation, the management of the Fed created the conditions that led to the depression of the 1930s.
It has presided over the loss of the gold backing of our money, and the consequent loss of about 90% of the value of the dollar.

Booms and busts have been worse after the advent of the Fed than before.

If the system hasn't accomplished its stated goals, what then has it been able to do?

It has been the tool used by the major bankers to gain control over the smaller banks. It has been able to bail out many international banks when their reckless overseas lending policies brought them to the brink of bankruptcy.

It has been the financing agency for Congress' unprecedented deficit spending on the welfare state and war. Many people believe that it has intentionally manipulated the economy in order to influence the results of our presidential elections.

Our government doesn't need the help of any private banking cartel to manage money. We need to repeal the Federal Reserve Act and return control of our currency to Congress. Then we need a serious national discussion about how real currency reform can be achieved, giving consideration to restoring the gold backing to our money.

As long as the Federal Reserve has control over our nation's money, Congress' control of the purse-strings will not have the benefits the Founders intended.

Return to Dave Neuendorf's Home Page

Please feel free to respond to my columns via email to me or letters to the editor of the Aurora Journal-Press at Register Publications, 126 W. High St., Lawrenceburg, IN 47025.
ski
(01/08/2003; 00:33:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93722)
Jobs during the Great Depression??



MAKCUMKA 15:43 #93680 .... "What industries were historically the most stable ones during the recession/depression periods in US history?"

Anticipating that we were headed for trouble, I did a study of the Great Depression about 10 years ago. I read from several sources and found some interesting surprises surrounding the depression. The following is what happened during the depression of the 30's.

First of all, almost every single sector of business declined by huge percentages. A few sectors generally maintained the same amount of business and only a few sectors benefited from the depression. If I don't address it below, it most likely declined.

BENEFITED:

1. Anything having to do with BANKRUPTCY.

2. PAWN SHOPS, SECOND HAND SHOPS and the like. (People could not afford "new".)

3. Most FIX & REPAIR ANYTHING SHOPS. (You could not buy "new.")

4. USED PARTS STORES & SOURCES like junk yards and the like.

5. CHEAP SPICY FOOD (You always have to eat and people evidently associated SPICY with expensive and thought they were getting a deal.)

6. LAW ENFORCEMENT due to an increase in crime.

7. CHEAP ENTERTAINMENT because everything was so depressing you wanted to relieve the pain with fantasy or comedy. Enter THE THREE STOOGES. (I don't expect this to be as big this time due to the TV set.)

8. CHEAP TRANSPORTATION because people will still want to go from point A to point B.

9. In certain parts of the country with placer gold and a favorable climate, many went to GOLD PANNING in an attempt to generate some income from the land.

STAYED ABOUT THE SAME:

1. All manner of HEALTH CARE. Why? People get sick at about the same rate.

2. All manner of EDUCATION. Why? The popular thinking of the day was, "If your out of work at least you can do something productive for yourself by increasing your level of education."

End of list .......... !!!!

From time to time, I have talked to various individuals that are getting ready to enter the work force. Some tips:

a. The era of finding a job in an occupation that you LOVE may be a thing of the past. Think in terms of settling for any job in an sector and learning how to be happy with any job.
b. Consider any of the above listed occupations except for cheap entertainment.
c. Consider joining the military but make sure you take up a trade that is transferable to civilian life.
d. No matter how confident you are about your present job, start looking now for one or two back up jobs.
e. Start saving money and pay down your bills now before trouble sets in.
f. Work at becoming one of the most valuable employees at your present place of employment. When layoffs come, employers will attempt to keep the best. Learn how to do the jobs of other employees.
g. Think in terms of BARRIERS TO ENTRY so that someone else will have a difficult time taking your job from you. Examples include: Required college or trade school degrees, union membership, special certification, proficiency on a specialized piece of equipment, seniority.
h. Think in terms of an occupation that cannot be done by someone else in another country. Instead of making lawnmowers you want to mow lawns.
i. The necessities of life: food, clothing, shelter and transportation. (The cheapest answer to the above.)
j. Ask yourself what do the very poorest people in your area spend their hard earned money on? Many of us may find ourselves in their shoes and will have to act the same under those circumstances.

Perhaps this will help someone .....
GoldnSilver2002
(01/08/2003; 00:42:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93723)
The last war america can afford?
After todays address by President Bush to america,i felt truly sorry for the world and for americans.Much like Rome,for better or for worse,The u.s is slowly opening up fronts all over the world.At a time,it seems,it can afford it the least.The u.s has taken on the role of the world's policeman,but how much longer in a war covered globe can america afford to police it?From south america,to the middle east to asia,violence and war are upsurging.America must be careful now,that its enemies dont push all at once.

Yesterdays pre speech push by the p.p.t combined with a smack down on gold,did nothing to change the picture here.The markets are sick,one more unexpected announcement away from collapse.America,uk etc prepare for war and that historically only means one thing for gold!I dont care for charts predicting world events and human behaviour,as if anyone can.All we have is history and human's nature.We are weeks or perhaps months away from seeing what humans do when they panic,they run to the gold.As soon as the bombs drop,the cabal will feel something hit its hull.The captain will awake,"to the golden lifeboats!!"This is a major gold bull and no one can talk away reality forever.Gold will crack 370 as america goes into iraq!
ElGordo
(01/08/2003; 01:14:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93724)
More wars to fight? This could get expensive-
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/030108/1/36ba7.htmlWednesday January 8, 3:25 PM

Libya, Syria, possibly Sudan also seek WMD, CIA warns

As the United States is consumed with proliferation crises in Iraq and North Korea, other counties such as Libya, Syria and possibly Sudan are quietly trying to acquire or expand secret arsenals of weapons of mass destruction, the CIA has warned.

The US Central Intelligence Agency has also concluded that suspected terror mastermind Osama bin Laden, blamed for the September 11 attacks on the United States, "has a more sophisticated biological weapons research program than previously discovered."

"Nuclear, chemical, biological, and ballistic missile-applicable technology and expertise continues to gradually disperse worldwide," the agency said in a report submitted to Congress last month and made public Tuesday.

The document, which contains a broad overview of the most pressing proliferation concerns in the second half of 2001, also points out that nuclear technologies have spread so much "that from a technical standpoint, additional proliferators may be able to produce sufficient fissile material for a weapon and to develop the capability to weaponize it."

The assessment comes as the administration of President George W. Bush is threatening war on Iraq if it refuses to give up its suspected chemical and biological weapons, as well as its alleged clandestine nuclear arms program.

Washington is also demanding that North Korea, already suspected of having one or two nuclear warheads, abandon its drive to expand its arsenal.

But while detailing these dangerous pursuits by the "axis of evil," the CIA indicated that other nations from the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism were also involved in similar activities.

One of them is Libya, which, according the report, continues to develop its nuclear infrastructure.

"In 2001, Libya and other countries reportedly used their secret services to try to obtain technical information on the development of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons," the CIA said.

According to the report, Tripoli tried to negotiate with Russia a deal to purchase a nuclear reactor and secure Moscow's assistance in developing the Tajura Nuclear Research Center.

"Such civil-sector work could present Libya with opportunities to pursue technologies that also would be suitable for military purposes," the spy agency concluded.

Following the suspension of UN sanctions against it, Libya quickly moved to establish contacts with chemical companies and research institutions, primarily in Western Europe, in order to secure technologies and raw materials for its suspected chemical weapons (CW) program.

"Tripoli still appears to be working toward an offensive CW capability and eventually indigenous production," the report stated. "Evidence suggests that Libya also is seeking to acquire the capability to develop and produce BW (biological weapons) agents."

Syria is suspected of trying to acquire precursor materials and know-how for a chemical weapons program.

"Damascus already holds a stockpile of the nerve agent sarin but apparently is trying to develop more toxic and persistent nerve agents," the CIA said.

The agency believes it is "highly probable" that Syria is also developing biological weapons.

As for Sudan, the CIA said the East African nation "has been developing the capability to produce chemical weapons for many years," and "may be interested in a BW program as well."

The report also warned that anti-American terrorist groups like bin Laden's al-Qaeda have "ready access" to information about weapons of mass destruction.

A trial in New York of men linked to the 1998 US Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania has revealed that in the early 1990s, al-Qaeda tried to arrange from Sudan a purchase of enriched uranium, possibly to be used for building a so-called "dirty bomb."

"We asses terrorist use of radiological dispersal devices to be a highly credible threat," the CIA said.
______________
Hey, Libya has oil !
Caradoc
(01/08/2003; 01:18:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93725)
Hello to Christain!
You may call yourself a "farmboy," but your post below shows you didn't just fall off the back of a turnip truck.

Trees: Since you have access to cheap labor for your Russian endeavor, you might consider planting three hardwood seedlings (maybe black walnut or maple) in each hole and spending 10 or 15 minutes per year on each triple tree keeping side branches pruned off for the first 20 feet and braiding the three trunks (one braid every year or so) so that they grow into one tree. Because of internal pressures as the tree grows, the resulting logs (20 feet of solid burl woodgrain!!) would bring premium price from plywood producers in Finland, Estonia, or Norway. Could be you'd do better to contract for producing plywood with your pretty veneer on top and sell directly to the German furniture manufacturers.

Gold: In addition to distinguishing between "credit creation gold" and "commodity gold," you might consider the difference between the commodity as normally quoted and the reality of coins which can be held, admired, bitten, and -- if need be -- hidden. True, the commodity is doing an interesting dance between 347 and 356 USD, but my hunch is that if you showed up at an airport in China and set up a folding table on the sidewalk, you could sell a few rolls of one-ounce coins at any price you chose between $375 and $475. Whether my hunch is right or not in January of 2003, it's a given that in a crisis situation the guy who holds the gold will be the one who sets the price.

Meanwhile (and falling short of any popularly perceived crisis), any move toward reserve currency other than the dollar and any move to price oil other than as so many dollars per barrel will be good for gold.











Usul
(01/08/2003; 01:23:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93726)
Britain's biggest electronics retailer Dixons has compounded fears of a slowdown in consumer spending
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/business/2637755.stm"The company dealt a double blow by issuing a profit warning along with its figures"
ElGordo
(01/08/2003; 01:23:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93727)
Smoke billows from El Palito
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?g=events/wl/031102venezuela&tmpl=sl&e=1Smoke billows behind an oil refinery in El Palito, appoximately 150 miles West of Caracas, January 7, 2003. Workers trying to restart Venezuela's 130,000 barrel per day El Palito refinery, shut by a 37-day strike by foes of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, have damaged a seal in one of the vacum units. 'The products have to be drained from the vacum unit of the plant and they have to be burned', Pedro Jimenez, the plant's logistics manager said. REUTERS/Str
__________
Link takes you to picture of smoke at El Palito
ski
(01/08/2003; 01:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93728)
A Yet Darker Thought ....



Trojan 23:19 #93719 "Lengthy criticism of the Federal Reserve System".... or words to the effect.

You posted some well researched criticisms of the Federal Reserve System .... which also are generally true for all fiat currencies and Central Banks. However, at the top of my list of criticisms is the fiat money systems' impact on making war.

Under the gold standard, you simply had to pay the bill for war with gold and silver. When you ran out of money, the war had to wind down.

The other day I was reading about WW1. This dark fact jumped off the page. Fiat currencies and the creation of the Fed generally took place during the time of WW1. This enabled the slaughter to go on an on and on. Well past the time that the normal forces of gold and silver payment would have ended the war.

My dark thoughts then moved through the remainder of the 20th century and ended with the anticapated war with Iraq. WW2, Korea, Viet Nam, Gulf War 1, Gulf War 2 .... What if we had been on the gold standard all of that time?? How many would still be alive? WHAT HAVE THESE MONEY CHANGERS DONE? HOW MANY MILLONS OF WORLD DEATHS ARE A DIRECT RESULT OF THEIR MONEY CREATION ACTIVITIES? When I asked myself these questions I felt like I was leaking blood. The blood of mankind ....such a dark, dark thought. I can only hope I'm not standing anywhere near them on judgement day.

..................


Just for the record, I spent a year on riverboats in Viet Nam which may give me some standing on this subject. Today, I am neither Hawk nor Dove but am generally anti-war. I am realistic enough to believe that war could become necessary under some very, very limited circumstances. In California, their is a mansion that was built about 1906 that is named FILOLI gardens. Take the name two letters at a time. FIght, LOve, LIve. The builder of the mansion believed that all three are necessary from time to time and so do I.

Sorry, this is not my typical post ....






ElGordo
(01/08/2003; 01:43:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93729)
Artic air mass next week
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/maps_index.asp?partner=&type=flow≥tArea=US_&day=9&btnregst=Get+MapThis will add to the NG draw about the middle of next week.
Lets see if it gets that cold.
ElGordo
(01/08/2003; 01:48:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93730)
British consumer not spending
London, Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Dixons Group Plc, Britain's largest consumer-electronics retailer, said full-year earnings will be as much as 10 percent below analysts' expectations as reduced spending by U.K. consumers causes sales to slow.

Sales in British stores open at least a year were unchanged over the peak Christmas selling season, hurt by faltering demand for video-games consoles, hi-fis and warranties, Chief Executive Officer John Clare said in an interview. Analysts had forecast a 5 percent gain for the owner of Currys, PC World and The Link.

``The consumer has given us a clear signal in December that the consumer economy is starting to slow,'' Clare said on a conference call. ``There's no bright spots on the horizon for the consumer this year and we anticipate a difficult trading period.''

U.K. consumer confidence fell in December to the lowest level in 14 months amid concern that annual house price inflation of about 25 percent is unsustainable. Dixons and rivals such as Game Group Plc cut prices of some products as demand slowed.

Shares of Dixons fell 23 pence, or 16 percent, to 124p at 8:19 a.m. in London. They declined 38 percent last year.

Trojan
(01/08/2003; 02:23:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93731)
For ski "Sorry To Say But You Are So Right"
You make an excellent point. No checks and balances.
PRINT $ War On....

I"ve always admired JFK. I think my admiration for him has increased 10 fold now that I am more knowledgeable about the Evil Federal Reserve System and the Fact that JFK "John FItzgerald Kennedy was the ONLY US President after 1913 who actually wanted to Break Up the Fed.

I always believed that Oswald NEVER acted alone.

Who more powerful than the Mafia of that age then The Money Barons of the World.

It would really make sense for a group about to LOSE the GOLDEN TREASURE to act accordingly.

A Sad Sad World that allows such People to control their Lives.

When the US $ Crashes to .25 THERE Will be Changes.

Be it 1 Year, 5 Years or whenever.

There is Justice in the end.

God help us ALL...
Black Blade
(01/08/2003; 02:59:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93732)
European Markets Look Ugly
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Euro markets are tanking this morning and the Nikkei does not look too healthy either. "Confession Season" is upon us as companies spill their guts about how bad it really is. No wonder the US prez is frantic. It should get "entertaining" as the Lemmings run to and fro as the Keystone Kops of Wall Street flail their arms giving confusing directions.

- Black Blade
Trojan
(01/08/2003; 03:01:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93733)
The New World Order
From a Book by Griffin:

Founders' Fears Realized

Readers may be surprised to learn that the Federal Reserve is the fourth central bank the United States has had, the previous three having crashed in inevitable raging inflation and widespread economic disaster.

So clearly did our Founders understand and fear worthless paper money forced on the public by legal tender laws (precisely what we now have) that they filled the proceedings of the Constitutional Convention with statements of their horror of it. We Americans today, deprived of hearing such truth, need to listen to their words:

George Mason of Virginia: "I have a mortal hatred of paper money."

John Langdon of New Hampshire:"I would rather reject the whole [Constitution] than grant the new government the right to issue fiat money."

George Reed of Delaware: "The right to issue fiat money would be as alarming as the mark of the beast in Revelation."

Thomas Paine: "The punishment of a member of Congress who should move for such a law ought to be death."

Griffin does not stop with presenting the known picture, but projects today's reality into the future. His first projection is a doomsday scenario; his second is a realistic plan for saving our country and ourselves. These chapters might, after all, be the most important ones in the book.

Griffin sees doomsday as an engineered financial debacle the severity of which will cause panicked Americans to welcome a World Bank "rescue" with a world currency.

The IMF/World Bank is already functioning -- in conjunction with the Federal Reserve -- as a world central bank. A world currency is already designed. awaiting a crisis to justify its introduction. From this point on, writes Griffin, there will be no escape from the new world order.

At present the U.S. is being deliberately weakened by seemingly insane spending both at home and abroad: As just one more dismaying example, during President Clinton's recent trip to Europe he blithely promised more billions of dollars to Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic countries. The name of the game is to spend -- on anything, anywhere. The object is to bring down the system.

End Of Exerpt

Well Folks it starts to make sense to me at least.

Bush Sr, Bush Jr, Cheney, Rumsfield and the other WarHawks of the US Government.

They ALL belong to the same Club that the Banks are part of.

So how do you Destroy the US $ and create a World Crisis to get a New World Order ?

You have Greenspan and Bernake Start Bragging about their favorite Toy... "The Printing Press"

You have Bush and his friends create Fear so you can have perpetual wars. You Inflate the Dollar until it must Collapse under it's own weight LIKE History has shown it always does.

Have your cover of War to Blame it on.

I am NOT a conspiracy Nut and I discount most talks concerning same BUT it really starts to make sense if you see Greenspan's move as Deliberate. He is just too knowledgeable to be doing this by chance.

Am I crazy to think this ?

I don't think so But if someone has a better explanation why the FED is behaving the way it is and why Bush is as well. Let's hear your thoughts.

Thank You

Black Blade
(01/08/2003; 03:14:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93734)
Emergency OPEC Meeting Called
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=XCKWGZCTGK2S0CRBAEOCFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=2008108
OPEC Confirms Meeting to Raise Oil Output

Snippit:

DUBAI (Reuters) - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will hold an emergency meeting on January 12 in Vienna to decide on the size of a supply increase to cool world oil prices, an OPEC official confirmed on Wednesday. "The President's office has confirmed the extraordinary meeting for Sunday," said the official, referring to OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah. "There are two proposals. One million barrels per day and 1.5 million barrels a day," the minister told reporters. Asked if any minister was proposing a two million bpd increase, as indicated by an OPEC delegate on Tuesday he said: "No."

Black Blade: It really doesn't matter as OPEC is already cheating on quotas to the tune of 1.4 million bbl/day. There simply is not that much excess capacity outside of Saudi. With another million bbl/production the world oil production will be running nearly flat out. And this during a deep recession when demand is somewhat lowered. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade
(01/08/2003; 03:33:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93735)
Market Indicators
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures are lower, precious metals lower, the USD flat, oil is lower on increased output plans, and NatGas is higher on cold temperature forecasts. Just another day.

- Black Blade
Spartacus
(01/08/2003; 03:39:22 MDT - Msg ID: 93736)
Rising Euro, Oil Prices May Provoke German Crisis
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20Europe&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=euro_currency&s=APhvcgRZmUmlzaW5n
London, Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- For investors who believe in their ability to call market turns Germany is an interesting play right now. At some point, the country will touch the bottom of its decade-long industrial and economic decline. That point could be getting close. --

Trojan
(01/08/2003; 03:40:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93737)
US Dollar On Hold
FOREX-Dollar subdued, fate hinges on Iraq, US jobs data

Wed January 8, 2003 03:59 AM ET
By Christina Fincher

LONDON, Jan 8 (Reuters) - The dollar paused a cent above last week's three-year low against the euro on Wednesday as dealers awaited U.S. jobs data and news regarding Iraq before deciding whether to extend the greenback's recent slide.

The dollar, which tumbled sharply at the end of 2002, rebounded earlier this week on hopes that massive tax cuts announced by President George W. Bush would kickstart the U.S. economy.

But initial enthusiasm petered out as doubts emerged over the effectiveness of the $670 billion package and its longer-term impact on the U.S. current account and budget deficits.

"The longer-term picture is still bearish for the dollar but a good deal of risk aversion is already in the price," said Shahab Jalinoos, currency strategist at UBS Warburg.

"Investors are unwilling to continue selling dollars aggressively when the market is already very short."
The dollar hugged a tight range around $1.04 per euro in early European trade, having hit a three-year low beyond $1.05 on the final day of 2002.

It stood at 120.25 yen , little changed from the New York close.

"The market is lacking a clear direction," said Junya Tanase, global markets officer at JP Morgan Chase in Tokyo. "The market is awaiting further developments on Iraq and in the near term, Friday's (U.S.) unemployment data."

JAPAN INTERVENTION THREATS
The threat of Japanese intervention to stem the yen's unwanted appreciation against the dollar was also helping to stabilise the greenback.
Japan's top financial diplomat, Haruhiko Kuroda, reiterated on Wednesday that Tokyo's foreign exchange policy had not changed, suggesting the country remained ready to step in to stem rapid currency moves.

Kuroda's predecessor, Eisuke Sakakibara, said that Japanese authorities could step into the currency market if the dollar falls below 120 yen.

"Solo intervention by Japan is possible if the dollar falls below 120 yen," Sakakibara, once known as "Mr Yen" for his influence over currency markets and still regarded as influential in financial circles, told Reuters in an interview.

"In that case, the United States won't be against it," he said.

The comments followed remarks from Japan's Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa on Tuesday that the dollar at 125 yen would be a stable rate.

With little on the economic agenda on Wednesday, most dealers were looking ahead to Friday's U.S. jobs report for December.

The report is expected to show U.S. unemployment held steady at six percent. Jobs figures are closely watched by the markets as they are considered a good leading indicator of consumer demand.
Hipplebeck
(01/08/2003; 04:56:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93738)
Trojan
http://www.utm.edu/research/iep/s/sophists.htmI don't think you are crazy at all.
I believe there are great spiritual forces at work.
Satan works through these men. They believe they are doing the right thing, but because of ego they have cast their lot with the dark force. It is the desire for power over others that blinds them.
Jesus told his followers that he was "not of this world".
There is this world, the worldy system of things and there is the kingdom of heaven in which Jesus lived his life.
We are here for a very short time. Much, much more is at stake than just how much money can I make, or how famous can I get. The ego has a great need to control everything around it because it is so afraid of it's own demise. That's why powerful people are so obsessed with controlling everything around them. Unless a man lose his own life he cannot gain it. It is too simple for sophists to get.
Black Blade
(01/08/2003; 05:05:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93739)
A Cold Blast in Winter
http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=145
Snippit:

Over the past week, a much clearer picture has begun to emerge regarding the most likely weather pattern between now and the end of the winter heating season in March.
This developing pattern is likely to bring extremely cold Arctic or even potentially Siberian cold air masses into the eastern U.S. for prolonged stretches during the next 8-10 weeks. If the emerging pattern unfolds as the meteorologists with whom we have been working most closely believe is likely to occur, it will have far-reaching implications for the natural gas and electricity markets in the U.S. Beginning in mid January, natural gas could be withdrawn from storage at record rates. Before the end of the month, natural gas prices could well be pushed well above $8/MMBTU.

Further, if repeated Arctic incursions occur over the next several weeks, by mid-February many LDC's may find it increasingly difficult to obtain sufficient supplies to meet their current storage targets for the remainder of the winter heating season. As a result, it may be necessary for LDC's to bid prices up aggressively in order to drive out of the market a significant fraction of the remaining industrial load and replenish rapidly dwindling reserves. This in turn could put further upward pressure on the spot market price for natural gas in an increasingly tight market. Prices above $10/MMBTU cannot by any means be ruled out. Higher-than-expected withdrawals from storage this winter also are likely to have a significant impact on natural gas prices during the summer months � increasing the market clearing-price for electricity this coming summer and setting the stage for continued higher-than-expected natural gas prices in the winter of next year. Over the course of 2003, therefore, steep price increases are inevitable.

Notably, however, even though weather for the winter season to date has been very close to historical norms (and, in fact, slightly milder than climatologically normal weather), the draw down from storage has been huge � i.e., a total of 755 BCf, since storage peaked in late October. This is more than 50% greater than the 5-year average of 496 BCf for the same period � a clear and unmistakable sign of the severity of the current imbalance between supply and demand in the U.S. market. The weather scientists with whom we have been working have been predicting since mid-November, however, that by sometime in early January, a new weather pattern might develop, with the potential to bring Arctic or even Siberian air masses into the Midwest and the Northeast for prolonged periods in January, February and potentially even early March. The first such cold air mass now appears nearly certain to be drawn deeply into the U.S. by the end of this coming week (i.e, January 10th) and to remain ensconced in the U.S. for a period of up to 10 to 14 days. The weather scientists with whom we have been working believe this air mass is likely to bring with it the coldest Arctic outbreak in several years and to usher in a prolonged period of well below average temperatures.

As a result, even though temperatures already will be starting to plummet when the report is issued, the withdrawal reported on the 9th is likely to be among the lowest of the winter season � i.e., almost certainly less than 100 BCf and quite possibly below the 91 BCf withdrawal that occurred in late November. Further, even the Weekly Storage Report issued on January 16th will not yet reflect the impact of the extremely cold air likely to be lingering in the eastern U.S. when the report is issued. The report issued on January 23rd, however, could show a truly stunning withdrawal � i.e., in all likelihood more than 200 BCf in a single week. As the weather patterns continue to evolve over the course of the winter, therefore, the upward pressure on natural gas prices could become intense.


Black Blade: I have been discussing this possibility for some time now. If we do get this Artic, or God forbid a Siberian Blast there is no possible way to have enough injection into storage to offset a devastating energy crisis of epic proportions. What this would do to the economy is obvious "economic stimulus proposals" notwithstanding. Check and Mate!!!

Gatekeeper
(01/08/2003; 05:21:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93740)
Christian READ THIS
I don't want to be pedantic but the article states that Kennedy's Executive Order was issued on June 4th 1963 and "three weeks later Kennedy was assassinated".

My recollection is that Kennedy was assassinated in November of 1963.
Maverick1
(01/08/2003; 05:32:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93741)
Black Blade
Have you receive any info that Delco-Remy was closing their Anderson , Indiana plant?
Black Blade
(01/08/2003; 05:48:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93742)
Re: Maverick1 � Delco

Delco Remy to close Anderson plants, lay off 400

ANDERSON, Indiana - Auto parts maker Delco Remy International Inc. said it will close its starter- and alternator-manufacturing plants in Anderson and lay off 400 workers. Citing pressures from overseas competitors, the company said Tuesday that production of Delco Remy America starters and alternators would be shifted to other Delco Remy plants worldwide. The cuts are expected to be completed by the end of March.

Black Blade: Delco does their part to contribute to the growing "Bone Pile". The announcement says that it's "not viable". Just like the guy in the movie "Falling Down" who is protesting in front of the bank screaming that they turned him down for a loan because he is "not viable". We will see a lot more of this I am afraid.
Black Blade
(01/08/2003; 06:03:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93743)
Do you need to hold more gold?
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?id={CA13FA61-AFB5-4A33-8680-CC2A6223ADD1}
Insurance policy: How to add gold exposure to your personal portfolio

Snippit:

In 2002, gold was no longer an asset class to be scoffed at. Over the year, the price of gold bullion rose almost 25% to US$347.60 an ounce. Anyone with the traditional 5% or 10% "insurance" hedge in bullion or precious metals mutual funds would have nicely offset the stock market's doldrums. Gold bugs such as Dow Theory Letter's Richard Russell are convinced the moves of the last month are just the beginning. "My choice for the sector to be in during 2003 is gold," he writes in the current issue. "I believe that gold is in the early stages of a major or primary bull market." Buying gold or silver bullion or coins directly through dealers or the Bank of Nova Scotia in downtown Toronto. Those who feel uncomfortable with mere "paper claims" on mining stocks may prefer the feeling of owning "real money" directly. Those living in less stable economies, such as Asia or parts of Latin America, may well be glad they took out such insurance in 2002. Coins or bullion can be held in a safety deposit box or hidden somewhere.

Black Blade: I don't agree with all the author's conclusions, however, he is right about Gold as a form of insurance. The more Gold the better.

Maverick1
(01/08/2003; 06:20:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93744)
Thanks Black Blade
My brother works there. For the past 2 years he has rolled his eyes at my "doom and gloom" economic predictions. What more can I say. I didn't think he would tell me.
Christian
(01/08/2003; 06:51:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93745)
The difference between credit creation gold + commodity gold

Reserve Requirements is a tool for monetary policy, computed as % of deposits that banks must hold in cash form. Presently on big banks they are 10% on transaction accounts (checkbook money) and 3% on small banks. There is NO (no) recerve requirements on time deposits and therefore can expand without limit. There is no regulation or law to stop a bank from using an off balance sheet gold loan and deposit it on its own account as a time deposit. I have yet to see a bank that does not use it. There is no need anymore for savings deposit. Matter of fact many banks are giving the depositers the middle finger with ever reduced rates on time deposits. Why pay a savings depositor more on interest than the gold lease rate. Why indeed? Banks can and do protect the risk of gold price going up with options or futures contract. So in other words an off balance sheet debt becomes a time deposit that has reserve requirements and therefore can expand without regard to reserve levels. With this process a $1000 off balance sheet gold loan can be turned into credit creation loan of unlimited supply. A 20% reserve requirements a $1,000 can be turned into $5,000, a 10% a $1,000 can be turned into $10,000 at 5%=$20,000, at 2.5%=$40,000, at 1.25%=$80,000 and on and on it expands. 0% requirement it can expand without regard to reserve levels. Commodity gold is for commodity use and priced for commodity use. Credit creation gold is only traded between central banksters and the price is determined by credit creation opportunity use of that gold. Presently that is in the area of $10,500 a troy oz. According to the FED gold will be allowed to move to $467 which will bring credit creation (monetary) gold to be priced at $14,000 and that will be sufficient to give the $ a 15% gold backing like the Euro has.---- I would like to see people with brains far better then this uneducated farm boy to improve the accuracy of this post. The people in this world need to understand what credit control is, and what it can do or not do for you. But most important we need to find a better way, and a way out of credit slavery. We need to understand how credit can be forced on you, be it on the federal or state or even local level. The Constitution gives us our freedom, but this credit creation is enslaving us and future children into slavery. There was no debt on this country of ours before the white man came. Now everything is indebted and belongs to a trust (DTC) owned by the FED.
a nation of one
(01/08/2003; 07:01:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93746)
controversial

One difference between a policeman in your neighborhood, and a nation that acts like a policeman toward other nations, is that a real policeman is paid a salary to which all of the taxpaying neighbors contribute. A police-nation, though, only gets money from its own citizens, not from other nations. It is like a man wanting to be a policeman, but who pays all of the expenses for it out of his own pocket. And though there are some exceptions, your neighbors generally agree that neighborhood policing is needed, whereas sovereign nations typically prefer to solve their own problems themselves. To me it looks like a recipe for disaster: Just go on over to your neighbor's place, and tell him that if he doesn't get rid of his guns, you'll burn his house down. Somehow it does not seem excessively smart.
Mr Gresham
(01/08/2003; 07:19:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93747)
Ski: Dammit!
I just wanted to click in and breeze through the early posts before going out to run, and you put in that great one about jobs during the depression. Which I got to after skimming over so many others with the thought "Great stuff" "Later" "Back to you". Yours stopped me cold. (But I'm still getting out on the road -- "any minute now".)

So much good reading -- time? What time!?!

Sometimes I think of Steve H's heading "Defending Gold", but in my case the thought comes through as "how can I keep up an income in any adverse time?" so that I wouldn't have to sell off PMs earlier than I wanted to. Posts like yours make the Forum really useful for me in the directions things are likely to go. You always have to have a business plan and business strategy. Thank you!
a nation of one
(01/08/2003; 07:31:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93748)
@ Trojan (1/8/03; 03:01:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 93733)

No you are not crazy. You are simply awake to the world we live in.
a nation of one
(01/08/2003; 07:42:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93749)
@ Hipplebeck (1/8/03; 04:56:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 93738)

You say: "The ego has a great need to control everything around it because it is so afraid of it's own demise. That's why powerful people are so obsessed with controlling everything around them."

--This is not a quality of the human ego, because, if it were, all men would have it. It is the result of a conscious decision made by some individuals. Any grown male is liable to have had the opportunity to have made a similar decision numerous times. I have had many. But it is wiser to decide only to be an authority over oneself, and many individual men in addition to myself also reach this same conclusion. These do not seek to control others. Yet they still have egos.
Belgian
(01/08/2003; 07:48:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93750)
@ Mikal & elevator guy : The euro and Gold.
The euro is NOT backed by Gold. The euro has Gold-exchange-reserves behind it. The ECB plus the 12-member national banks of the EMU, individualy, have Gold in their vaults
as to manage the intrinsic value of the euro-currency.
There are many purposes for this CB-Gold reserves. Because a currency must serve many purposes as well. The creation of more euro-currency needs a proportionate valuation of it's Gold reserves, in price or goldvolume. That's why all EMU-joiners must bring in some Gold to the ECB in exchange for having their old national currency be transformed in euro. This also counts for non EMU members who wish to change their dollar-reserves for euro-reserves. Gold must come in the ECB/BIS vaults for more euro in reserve.

It speaks for itself that all those outstanding CB dollar-reserves cannot chase Gold at the same time when euro are desired for reserves instead of dollars. That's why on LBMA there are more outstanding paper-gold-claims than there is aboveground Gold on our planet !!! Much More claims waiting to be served than there is Gold available to perform these contracts.

Not enough Gold available means that its price must rise !

This situation (concept) is in sharp cntrast with the dollar. >>> Since A.G. took over as the chairman, the FED has added 5 TRILLION $ to the world's (huge) supply of dollars, and may add another 1 TRILLION $ this year.
During that same period, Gold about 800 million ounces (24,000 tonnes) of Gold were added to world supplies...OR ONE OUNCE FOR EVERY 6,250 $ !!! (daily reckoning)

The euro wants to become an oil-specialized currency, thanks to its concept linked to oil and Gold-exchange-reserves together. BIS-member Saudi Arabia is brother in arms and not all oil-producers share this intention. That's why the Gold-dinar risks to grow big. Oil is so large that abrupt maneuvering would distort the Goldmarket completely.
The euro is buffering for the time being through the paper-contract-goldmarket on the now public LBMA since 1997.

Put this Saudi Arabia center-function into the ME-turmoil at present and we might have an explanation for many paradoxes in this arena. For instance, what is the stance of the Saddam-regime towards this ? Did Iraq and Saudi Arabia renewed economic links, recently ? etc...etc...

As long as Saudi Arabia (swing-producer) is controlling sufficiant supply and the POO...the euro-oil-Gold concept is in progress. When this fails it means total chaos induced by oil. When Arabian oil-producers can keep the POO cheap in a specialized (euro) oil-currency, linked to Gold...they automatically avoid the search for alternatives under whatever form and have herewith assured quasi 100% offtake for the immense existing ME-oilreserves !
ME-oil costing 2$ and Caspian/Northsea/other oils costing fourfold. You can be sure that the evolving China-Giant, future oil-consumer, is much in favor of these dynamics.

To make the above happen in a durable fashion...a FREE PHYSICAL Goldmarket in an oil-specialized currency (euro)*must* come to live. So that these two most political resources can trade as purest *wealth*.

Once such a free physical goldmarket is established, much of the currency's problems might find a solution and the global economy can expand further in a more balanced way.
The dollar will certainly join this concept. It is only a matter of getting the dollar-dominance out of the way for the good of "all" of us. A painfull operation or maybe not ?
Zhisheng
(01/08/2003; 08:06:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93751)
Belgian (93750)
I have read that any nation joining the European Monetary Union has the right to secede if it later decides to do so.

You write that when a nation joins, it most contribute some gold as its currency is transformed into Euros.

Question: should a nation elect to secede, can it recover the gold it previously contributed?
The Hoople
(01/08/2003; 08:12:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93752)
Oops, we're over the debt limit aagain
A quick check of the Treasury gross public debt in Barron's today shows a whopping 78 billion $ increase in the first week of the new year. This brings the total to 6,405.7 b. ,exceeding the 6,400.0 b. limit by 5 billion. Has anyone seen a single mention of this in any media? We are in violation of our government law, even before 600 b. stimulus packages and wars are implemented. Gold should be ripping off $100 gains instead of the $2 collar zone. It will one day.
Calidor
(01/08/2003; 08:15:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93753)
Alcoa to layoff 8,000
Snippit -

Alcoa misses, sets plan to lay off 8,000 (AA) By Steve Gelsi
Alcoa (AA) reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $223 million, or 27 cents per share, compared to a loss of $142 million, or 17 cents per share in the year-ago period. Income from continuing operations was $133 million, or 16 cents per share, including a $40 million or 5 cents per share in non-recurring after tax charges. Not including the charge, continuing income would have been 21 cents per share. A survey of analysts by Multex forecasted earnings of 25 cents per share. Revenue was $5.06 billion, short of the Multex forecast of $5.29 billion. The aluminum giant also set plans to lay off 8,000. It started 2003 with 127,000 employees. Shares of Alcoa were unchanged at $24.38 on Tuesday.

Calidor - As of market open, AA share price dropped about 1.80. This doesn't make for a "Happy New Year" for those being pointed towards the door.

rsjacksr
(01/08/2003; 08:16:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93754)
Alcoa to Slash 8,000 Jobs; Loss Widens to $223 Million as Sales Decline
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhw6MxUQQWxjb2EgSNIP: The company is also divesting some packaging, chemicals, construction and automotive businesses. About 2,100 employees work at the units to be divested, spokesman Kevin Lowery said. Alcoa, which cut about 10,000 jobs last year, has 127,000 employees
rsjacksr
(01/08/2003; 08:19:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93755)
Sorry. Calidor beat me to the punch
I'll have to learn to be faster. At least you have the link
CoBra(too)
(01/08/2003; 08:26:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93756)
@ Zischeng - It's Not so much About the � -
Though any Nation joining the EU has the right to secede, should the country so wish. In terms of the common currency, since only 12 out of 15 states adopted the � it should be same. At this stage, with so many new nations queing for membership it is a rather unlikely probability - even if Germans remonstrate against the EU and ECB spanking.

Let's see what the EU Convent will bring forward. A first draft will be available for discussions in late January and the final version, including a constitution by end of June.

Regards cb2
White Rose
(01/08/2003; 08:26:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93757)
Christian: what do you mean about credit creation gold
Dear Christian:

For a long time, I have heard you speak about this unusual property of "credit creation gold". As I understand it, bankers have some magic process by which gold can be used to create wealth out of thin air.

Gold has many unusual properites: it is portable, it is rare, it has intrinsic value (it is not a promise to repay), it has an and distinctive unusual color, it is quite mallable, it does not tarnish, so that it retains its beauty for year, it is divisiable, making it easy to perform commercial transactions. No wonder gold has had a monetary role for five thousand years.

When you speak of "credit creation gold", you describe a process by which many loans are created with a small amount of collateral or you describe the basic process of banking (by which a minor desposit can yield a much larger asset to be loaned out; this process of money creation is supposed to be limited by the bank's reserve ratio).

I maintain that there are many assets that can be used in the same way -- large loans can be created from real estate. In fact, the Savings and Loan scandal of past years was based on the creation of large loans on the back on minor league collateral. We do not speak of "commodity real estate" and "credit creation real estate" yet the same processes are at work.

I will admit that the intrinsic worth of gold -- I can buy it and then resell it quickly for virtually the same amount -- can make it easier to abuse than gold.

I would argue that the creation of a leveraged financial instrument is interesting. We focus on the nature of the instrument -- how stable it can be and for how long. We do not say that it is an automatic creation of the collateral.

Please Mr. Christian: provide me with some evidence that gold is bought or sold for the value of the leveraged finance that can be created from the collateral value of the gold. If you cannot show evidence of these transactions, then please stop speaking of "credit creation gold".
Hipplebeck
(01/08/2003; 08:38:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93758)
gold and the dollar
Coup De Gras

How will it happen?
A monumental battle between the long and short positions.
An unexpected number of contracts will declare for delivery.
Lock-up.
Limit-up.
Shut down.

just my opinion
Rock
(01/08/2003; 08:39:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93759)
Blackblade, Silvergolong, Ski
Thanks for the feedback regarding the unemployment saga. Like Silvergolong said, whats a $150.00 a week going to do anyway, who can live of that, however its still something. Meanwhile, so much for the stock market rally, I'll can the expression from my pontificating friend Sir Blackblade, "dead cat bounce." Looks like the Brits were on the ball yesterday when they busted those terrorist with that poison. That was some nasty stuff and no cure! That poison will take about five years to find a cure for.

Meanwhile with all this bad news I don't know how the economies around the world can recover. Its going to take a lot more than a few hundred bucks of credit relief to repair the US economy. I told the wife today that each family needs about $10,000 of relief to boost the economy, then you'll get consumer spending. With all this debt what little relief we do get will go straight into paying down that personal debt as opposed to going out and buying more junk. Bushes speech sounded good at first glance and you can't blame him for trying but quite frankly its short lived after all look at the SM today. My prediction is the market will shortly give back all the gains of last week.

One thing that does make me feel somewhat better is when I cashed out my 401K after resigning from the medical company I worked for in 1999 I took $28,000 and bought 25,000 worth of gold bullion and 3,000 worth of silver. I told the wife at least we have something for that rainy day although today we have very little savings and basically were living off the wife's check from week to week. Wouldn't it be nice if they eliminated the capital gain taxes? Well, off to the sofa, I'm one sick puppy.

Cheers,

Rock
a nation of one
(01/08/2003; 08:42:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93760)
@ The Hoople (1/8/03; 08:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 93752)

"Oops, we're over the debt limit aagain...." and, "We are in violation of our government law,...," [meaning that Congress is breaking its own laws].

--To justify breaking a rule once is hard. The second time is easier. After awhile, they don't even need to justify it. That's the point we're at now. Soon, Congress will not have to follow any laws at all.

CoBra(too)
(01/08/2003; 08:56:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93761)
Nice Article on Bill Bonner's Daily Reckoning on Gold -
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index.cfm-And there might be a series. Just the final paragraph says it all:

"And if he reaches in his pocket, he finds no gold. Instead, he sees green pieces of paper. He's been told they are worth something. Everyone seems to agree...for he can exchange them for the things he wants. Today, he can buy an ounce of gold for less than $350. The crowd judges it a fair trade today. Will it tomorrow?

More to come...."

You got'ta luv those guys - cb2




MK
(01/08/2003; 09:32:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93762)
Hoople. . .
This is a bad time to go back to Congress and ask for an upping of the debt limit. The Democrats are likely to make a political football of it given the developing wrangle over tax cuts. They are already grousing about the deficit reinforcing my belief that politics in Washington has little do with the right policy for the country but what serves the political interests of the players on both sides. Do any of us really believe that the Democrats would so sactimonious about the deficit if they were in power? The Republicans have a majority so it may not be as bad this time around as it was several years back when they actually closed down the government for a few days. They'll ram it through and the Democrats will just stand around fuming.

This is the most accelerated build-up in the national debt I have seen in all the years I've monitored that figure. My guess is that it's unprecedented though I haven't done the comparative mathematics. No matter what happens in the Beltway, this addition to the debt and the monetization sure to coat-tail it will have a negative effect on the dollar. Money supply numbers are beginning to chart like a rocket tragectory.

On the subject of oil (in which I know you have an interest), there was a report last night in the International Herald Tribune that just with Venezuela we are losing about 3 million barrels a day. Pre- Vienna OPEC meeting number crunching has the step-up pegged at 1.5 million barrels at best. The Qatar rep came out and said 1 million was realistic. Woefully short, as one analyst put it. There are danger signs popping up all over the place and that's why gold bottomed and broke the other way overnight. Looks like the oil market is trading more on technicals than it is fundamentals at the moment. Alot of people in this market pushed one way or another by "trend" playing rather than an understanding of the deeper undercurrents.

Gold is also reacting to rumors in Japan that they are going the way of an "inflationist" in keeping with the world reflation trend. Who knows. I never trust the Japanese government when it comes to the yen. They have ways of trashing it we've never thought of. In the end though world investors will be looking to see what their own currency gains or loses in real purchasing power. If you remember the old charts from back in the 1970s gold, the yen and d-mark travelled together -- as apparently Japan must have given-in to U.S. pressure.

By the way, one more point for general consumption: The Japanese do not have a treaty with the United States that they cannot buy gold. Remember Hashimoto. . .His threat to sell U.S. Treasuries and buy gold was not taken by the markets as a hollow threat from someone mandated by treaty to ignore yellow metal. I believe they may be buying gold quietly, as the people running that country are not fools. They see what's coming down the road and they are also looking over their shoulder at China (on the record as a gold accumulator).

On Switzerland and gold: Could it be that the cat papa throws out the front door is let in by Mama at the back door? The Swiss aren't fools either, and what they do for public consumption and to assuage the EU may not be the real policy behind closed doors. One thing I've understood very well after all these years in the gold market, there are two tiers of interest -- one for political consumption and one stemming from national interest. That's a source of a great deal of confusion, but it also stimulates great interest and speculation as to what is going on. When it comes to gold, don't believe that any nation state abhors it. Believe that some states have interests which preclude a publicly stated interest in the metal. Quite often you don't know what's going on, until it's all over. Fundamentally though, I doubt that much has changed among the major players with respect to the yellow metal. Only the press believes the barbarous relic rhetoric.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/08/2003; 09:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93763)
Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)
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Zhisheng
(01/08/2003; 10:13:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93764)
$350 Gold
Pawing at the door again!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/08/2003; 10:17:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93765)
**NEW** TOLL FREE phone numbers for our INTERNATIONAL clients.
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Living Across the Water, or Downunder? No worries, Mate.
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We are pleased to pass along what our European clientele have been telling us -- that our pricing is superior to most of their banks and brokerage firms. We share your view that actions speak louder than words, therefore we support and encourage delivery of the gold while our competitors primarily promote certificate programs. Go figure. That equation solves itself. With USAGOLD - Centennial you'll get a good price AND get what you pay for!

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Christian
(01/08/2003; 10:29:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93766)
(No Subject)
Lending out commodity gold for credit creation is and has been feasible and profitable for hundreds of years. The leverage potential with all of the new financial means (derivatives) makes it more so. ---- AG said 20 some years ago= "Central Banks use a credit creation mechanism (reserve banking) used for converting commodity gold to credit creation monetary gold to increase to a greater degree of leverage and liquidity in banking than commodity gold alone would itself support. This leverage and risk taking can greatly increase the possibility of profits or losses, bank failures or buy outs depending who is profiting or going into bankruptcy. Any use of sovereign credit creates moral hazard, a distortion of incentives that occurs when the party that determines the level of risk receives the gains from, but does not bear the full costs of, the risks taken.
The Hoople
(01/08/2003; 10:36:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93767)
MK, I think they just heard us.
Judging by the quick POG pop. I too have never witnessed the parabolic growth of debt (all levels, not just government) as we are now seeing. Anybody thinking entitlements of any kind are secure should look at those debt graphs and understand the only way out is to thoroughly debase them. I remember 25 years ago my father received about $600 a month in Social Security and his rent was $240. Now he receives $1200 a month and his rent is $850. Rent used to be 40% of Social Security and now it is 70%. This will dramatically accelerate IMO and people will be overwhelmed with even more debt. Funny, yet not, that a little shop in Denver called Centennial Precious Metals provides the only real measure of protection from that nauseating future. I can't imagine the consequences of ignoring the sign posts that are so boldly flashing danger.
GratefulForGold
(01/08/2003; 10:45:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93768)
SPOT's gettin' frisky
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Currently at $353.19 after being higher. US$ getting ill ($102.04). DOW and DUCK slip sliding away. Interesting action today.
Gandalf the White
(01/08/2003; 10:48:30 MDT - Msg ID: 93769)
NO Barriers for SPOT and SPIKE !!! <;-)
JUMP SPOT, JUMP !!!
Way ta GO, SPIKE !!!
The PAPER Gold is getting RIPPED !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(01/08/2003; 11:06:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93770)
<;-)
NICE JUMP, SPIKE !!
SPOT at #355+ now !!!
<;-)
Zhisheng
(01/08/2003; 11:06:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93771)
Again!
Spot $355 breached.
sector
(01/08/2003; 11:17:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93772)
yen and euro shoot up...dollar falls vertically and gold...
...jumps to $354Pretty clear there's a relationship between these four metrics.

What is interesting is the rapidity of the dollar move today...a vertical shot down about 80 cents worth.

Sure looks like the "Overseas" US Treasuries are being "mailed home" by the Europeans and Japanese.

This also says something about all the "Weak yen" jawboning in Tokyo...perhaps it is just polite cocktail talk by the Japanese leadership and the BOJ. After all, how many yen would it take to absorb significant European, non-government Japanese repatriation of their considerable US Treasury hoard and still force the yen down by the BOJ purchasing dollars with "New" yen?

An apt analogy seems to be a leaking canoe with holes that keep getting bigger and bailing buckets that keep getting smaller.

Then there's the $600 billion in elderly Japanese savings, 10% of which would totally drain the central bank's vaults of any remaining un-loaned or un-swapped gold [16,000 tonnes].

And now a word from SECTREAS John "Mr. Balanced Budget" Snow regarding the President's newly minted 3/4 Trillion, ten-year, "Stimulus package" and how it all fits in to a neat cohesive package.

If the President's military planning is anything like his economic blueprint then Saddam has nothing to worry about.

What a country.
TownCrier
(01/08/2003; 11:20:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93773)
My own friends have asked me how they can buy gold. A good question!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.htmlIt couldn't be easier, really.

Visit the page above for an overview of the many gold bullion items and gold coins available.

Locate the toll free number for the United States or for overseas, depending on your locale.

Call the friendly staff at USAGOLD - Centennial.

If you are not sure who you should talk to, Marie (ext.106) [or Jill] can direct your call.

Jonathan ext.110
MK ext.101
George ext.102

Jon, Mike, or George will be happy to discuss current market prices and diversification strategies with you.

Done, and done!

Easy, wasn't it?

Ultimately, you must do this for yourself, because no one else will do it for you. (Centennial is standing by to help.)

Now go out there and make me proud.

Randy
Gandalf the White
(01/08/2003; 11:43:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93774)
GREAT JOB, Spike and SPOT !!!
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1LOOK at this BEAUTIFUL chart of the day !! (see LINK)
DID you see the GC3G (Feb COMEX) PAPER Gold get thrown at $356. ????
WOWSERS, did it FLY !!!
You dogs REST for the night and LET us watch you tomorrow.
It is up the the Roos and Pandas to "HOLD the LINE" !!
<;-)
White Rose
(01/08/2003; 11:43:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93775)
Mr Christian: The Reality of "Credit Creation Gold"
Here is my point. Lets say there are two banks, A and B. Bank A takes a ton of gold and uses advanced financial mechanisms to create additional money. I suspect that the mechanism that created the additional money encumbers the ton of gold in some way. Of course, like all bank-created money, it it not money in the hands of the banks, it is money in the form of additional loans owed the bank. When the loans are paid back, that destroys the additional money supply. So there is no way for tha banker to "capture" this additional money supply directly into his pocket for buying and selling. Instead, the entire economy enjoys the additional money while the loans are on the books. Naturally, the banker profits marginally by the additional business. But the full value of the newly created money does not fall into this hands.

Lets say bank B wanted to do the same thing, but bank B did not have any gold. I presume that if they wanted the gold of bank A, then bank A would have to reverse their financial arrangements and would have to send much if not all the newly created money (new loans) to money heaven.

Thus bank B would go into the general marketplace to purchase gold at the "commodity price". What I am trying to show is that you are confusing the cost to the bank of buying and selling gold (at the "commodity price") with the full amount of increase in the money supply which is not in the hands of the banker.

While gold is used by banks to "create credit". I do not see any transaction whereby gold is ever bought or sold at a higher "credit creation price". Please demonstrate to me that this "credit creation price" exists as a means of completing some sort of financial exchange.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/08/2003; 11:52:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93776)
The Fruit of Your Labor: another day, another dollar?

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Mr Gresham
(01/08/2003; 11:54:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93777)
EEEE-YIKES!
Somebody's buyin' those dips! They sure don't last as long as they used to.

MK: Any backup plans for when we become too popular a site for our own good? You've always had to ride the delicate balance between this site as your business resource and as a forum for the expression of "Golden Thoughts".

You know we attract some great talent (for amateurs,-- ;) -- anyway) and we were all newbies once, too. Maybe a two-tier forum, with passwords awarded to the "A" team after a track record on the "B"?

OK, OK, I'm putzin' to avoid work; I'll leave the juicy stuff like this up to you. It's probably at least a year off, anyway (wink, wink?)
PH in LA
(01/08/2003; 11:59:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93778)
Money Creation
MK:

I remember clearly that Another predicted that the Greenspan Fed would be forced to increase the money supply exponentially as the only viable way of fighting a rearguard defense as their only option to complete collapse.

It has become very clear that the POG is still "under control" and that someone has decided to "control" it to a higher price; very good and valuable news for physicl accumulators.

Thanks, Belgian for all your good thoughts!
G$
(01/08/2003; 12:05:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93779)
Gold share / bullion trading
The way I see it is this: either the gold price is way ahead of itself and is due to correct $20 for a while or it is going to keep going and the shares will snap up like a rubber band to play catch up once they realize that this move is for real.
In the SHORT TERM few traders I know believe that this is for real and therefore they won't remaing long the stocks. I think they are in for a rude awakening and the stocks are going to be playing catch up here in the next few days!!!
Which camp is right? Stay tuned...it will be dramatic either way.

G$
Gandalf the White
(01/08/2003; 12:16:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93780)
YES Sir G$ !!! BUT things appear to be DIFFERENT this time !
Note the large spread on the Bid Ask of the Feb COMEX contract at today's close! $1.5 !!!
The GC3G Settlement today was $354.3 while the Bid was $353.5 and the ASK = $355.0 !!!
The RANGE on the day was from a Low of $345.3 and a HIGH = $356.0 !!!
Like a little girl said to her dog -- Toto, THINGS don't look the same here anymore !
<;-)
Sierra Madre
(01/08/2003; 12:19:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93781)
Ski: jobs and economic activities that should flourish...

That was a useful post of yours, the first of today's posts.

Looking to the future, it seems to me that there is one activity that will flourish in the coming years, and that will be BUS TRANSPORTATION.

Greyhound has seen better days, but I think a renewed Greyhound-type company - several of them, perhaps - will have a firm place in the U.S. economy from here on.

Too many people have figured that air travel is the only way to go. And worse, too many people are now relying on their cars to move about.

Depression-type problems will favor bus transportation, which has been very much forgotten, since the 40's.

Local bus service companies, to transport people from suburbs to city centers and back, will probably have plenty of customers who cannot