USAGOLD Discussion - January 2003

(01/01/2003; 12:22:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93125)

THE ECONOMY AS 2003 BEGINS

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030101/economy_newyear_2.html

Story:

Reuters
Economy Begins 2003 on Fretful Note
Wednesday January 1, 10:56 am ET
By Glenn Somerville

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - As it did a year ago, the U.S. economy is
entering 2003 in a fretful state.

Concern about the consequences of potential war with Iraq cast a pall
over 2003 prospects much as the aftershock of the Sept. 11, 2001, terror
attacks did on 2002 -- a year many Americans may wish to forget.

ADVERTISEMENT
U.S. stock prices closed out 2002 with their first three-year losing
streak since 1939 to 1941, the year-end holiday shopping season held
little cheer, companies still were shedding jobs by the thousands and
data showed consumer moods were souring.

War with Iraq -- whether and when it happens and how long it lasts -- is
the key to changing the economy's fortunes in the New Year, economists
say.

The Conference Board, a private business research group, said on Tuesday
its Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 80.3 in December from a revised
84.9 in November, a far steeper fall than economists had expected.

Consumers, whose spending drives two-thirds of U.S. economic growth,
were worried about rising unemployment, up to 6 percent in November from
5.7 percent in October. But analysts said the underlying cause of
sagging confidence was war fear.

"The war risks are just enormous and it's causing people and businesses
to just sit and wait," said economist Douglas Lee of the forecasting
firm Economics from Washington. "It's the uncertainty of the situation
that is the problem and if that was resolved then business could begin
to move forward."

The Bush administration has steadily ratcheted up pressure on Iraq,
declaring it in breach of a U.N. Security Council resolution on
disarmament and positioning forces for a strike while leaving vague when
one might occur, if at all.

DURATION OF WAR MATTERS

Economist Sung Won Sohn of Wells Fargo Bank in Minneapolis said the
potential impact on the U.S. economy varied widely, depending on whether
a war ends with swift success -- as did the 1991 Gulf War -- or becomes
protracted and nasty.

"A quick and decisive war against Iraq would boost confidence and slash
oil prices," Sohn said.

"On the other hand, a messy and costly war with terrorist attacks on oil
facilities here and abroad could send oil prices to $80 a barrel,
equivalent to the price of oil during the Iranian revolution of the
1970s," he added.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday for a second straight day to about $31.20 a
barrel for crude futures, down about $2.50 from two-year highs set on
Monday, but still finished out the year 56 percent above average prices
at the start of 2002.

Speaking to reporters at his Texas ranch on Tuesday, President Bush
again emphasized his dissatisfaction with Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein's level of compliance with disarmament resolutions and warned
Iraq was a threat to U.S. economic well-being.

"An attack from Saddam Hussein or a surrogate of Saddam Hussein would
cripple our economy," said Bush, who is expected to propose tax cuts and
other measures later this month in a bid to reinvigorate the economy.

Aside from Iraq, there has been growing strain with North Korea over its
renewed pursuit of a nuclear arsenal, although Bush insisted on Tuesday
this amounted to a "diplomatic showdown" rather than a military one.

NOT ALL GLOOMY

If some of the cloud cover lifts on the international front, analysts
say several factors augur well for a pickup.

Economist John Silvia of First Union Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina,
says corporate profits are relatively steady and personal income growth
is solid even though consumers clearly are saving more.

Sohn agreed, noting, "As we enter 2003, the key is to have the consumer
hang in there, not necessarily go on a spending binge, but most of all
we want business confidence to pick up and that is being held back by
geopolitical concerns."

Interest rates are already the lowest in four decades, and Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said earlier this month the economy was
still working through a "soft patch" that should become easier to
navigate if global tensions ease.

Like private analysts, Greenspan said it was vital that business
spending improve, saying "any significant fall in the current
geopolitical and other risks should noticeably improve capital outlays,
the indispensable spur to a path of increased economic growth."

That brings the scenario back to Iraq, as was the case more than a
decade ago when Bush's father was president and James Baker was
secretary of state. Then, as now, Americans were suffering a crisis of
confidence as they worried about the consequences of war with Iraq,
which had invaded Kuwait.

At a news conference, Baker explained the economic impact of Iraq's
actions on the United States as "jobs, jobs, jobs."

That Gulf War, from Jan. 17, 1991, until Iraq surrendered 42 days later,
was short and tidy. Oil prices, up on war fears, tumbled soon after the
first bombs fell. Stock markets rose.

The brief conflict lifted a fog of uncertainty over the U.S. economy and
helped usher in the longest peacetime economic expansion in American
history.

--------------------

ax: The United States and world economy will not begin

any significant recovery based on the outcome

of any Middle Eastern or North Korean issue.

Nor will the the price of gold be permanently

affected by such outcomes. The economy and gold

will be affected in a significant way only by the
reincorporation of gold into the U.S. and world

financial systems. This has already been hinted

at by Alan Greenspan, talked about by some of us

on this forum, and predicted by some essay writers

on other forums. The year 2003 shall see a major

change in the relationship of gold to economic

life.

Belgian

(01/01/2003; 12:54:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93126)

@ elevator guy

The oil for euro transition is not the kind of hiphop-1-2-3 enterprise. It is an event with HUUUUUGE implications and a dramatic change. That's why I'm hyper-focused on Saudi Arabia. Making the euro the "new" oil-currency can only happen with The Biggest oil-swing brother who has tremendous oil-taps and huge, available, cheap reserves.
All other oil producers simply watch if this euro/oil/gold-cat can come down safely from its three. For the time being there is no other alternative than to sell oil for dollars under whatever conditions.

It is only because the Saudi Kingdom is (and will remain) attached to the yellow wealth that this concept can get airborne and is, at the same time, offering an ideal solution to the coming financial/monetary-collapse.
We couldn't get much further anyway (economically) with the suffocating dollar-debt. Or is it because salvage is in the air that so much debt and confetti is produced (printing presses) ? Think it is both of the arguments.

I must admit that I'm still searching for the deepioest of clues on the Venezuela events. Maybe the US wants to capture/control more oil than necessary for its consumption at home as to sell the excess for its future needed euro-reserves, next to the remaining Gold-reserves (exchange reserves that is). Who knows ?
The same will probably apply for all underground Gold (anywhere) that might be sold to the BIS in exchange for euro-reserves.

The 75% of Global dollar-reserves exchanged for still to be mined Gold at enormous prices. This under full "regulation" of course. As oil in the ground is of "national/international" importance. See China and Russia (Japan-Jipangu) stepping up their Gold-explorations.
The whole situation in South Africa might change (for the good) dramatically and start acting as the developping engine for the development of the black continent...at last !? All this on the basis of underground Gold that now will (can be) me mined, under strict control, as pure wealth instead of an ordinarry commodity. That's how South Africa's prosperity started anyway with dear old Cecil Rhodes. Remember that the rand once equaled the dollar in exchange-value. It decimated since then (10 rand to the dollar).

Goldrush

(01/01/2003; 13:05:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93127)

This is bad news for Afghanistan deployment

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A60833-2002Dec31.htmlU.S. Reports Clash With Pakistani Border Unit
American Wounded; Bomb Ends Skirmish

By Marc Kaufman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, January 1, 2003; Page A01

BAGRAM AIR BASE, Afghanistan, Dec. 31 -- U.S. military authorities announced today that a brief shootout erupted between U.S. and Pakistani troops along the Afghan border Sunday, prompting the U.S. forces to call in an F-16 warplane that dropped a 500-pound bomb on the Pakistanis to end the clash.

One U.S. soldier was shot and wounded as the encounter began, the U.S. military said in a statement at Bagram, just north of Kabul, the capital. The soldier, whose identity was withheld, was flown to Germany for medical treatment and was listed in stable condition at a military facility there, the statement said.

Reports from Pakistani officials in South Waziristan, the tribal administrative zone on the Pakistani side of the border, said at least two members of the Pakistani Border Scouts were killed in the bombing, which they said hit a Muslim religious school on the Pakistani side of the border in which some of the Border Scouts had taken refuge.

U.S. and Pakistani military authorities sought to play down the clash and stressed that both sides remain determined to cooperate in hunting down remnants of Taliban and al Qaeda forces who have redoubts in the isolated border hills and move back and forth across a tense and loosely policed frontier. But the shooting raised again the question of whether some Pakistani soldiers and tribal leaders still sympathize with their Taliban neighbors, whom they long supported until the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
___________________
Pakistan is not really an ally. PM just needs our financial
help, billions are going to Pak, but the people support bin Laden.
Not to mention the fact Pak has been dealing with NK.
Pak gave NK nuclear tech in exchange for Missile tech.
Bagram air base is a trap just like it was for the Soviets.
Morale of troops is low, its a quagmire situation and the
military types know it.

Goldrush

(01/01/2003; 13:25:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93128)

More info on Pak incident

BAGRAM AIR BASE, Afghanistan (CNN) -- A U.S. soldier -- grazed on his head by a bullet near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border -- was shot by a Pakistani border guard, U.S. military officials said Tuesday.

The officials said the border guard is in Pakistani custody.

Brig. Saulat Raza, a Pakistani armed forces spokesman, said "We are investigating the incident."

Previously, Sunday's incident was described as an exchange of enemy gunfire. He was hit by an AK-47 automatic rifle.

The soldier was transferred to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany for further examination and neurological testing, a statement said. His condition is listed as stable.

The incident occurred near Shkin in eastern Afghanistan, a report by American Forces Press Service said. U.S. soldiers were observing Pakistani border guards destroy inert missiles found in the area.

The border in the region is in dispute, but U.S. officials said the American soldiers were within Afghanistan.

According to officials, one of the border guards approached the U.S. patrol and was asked by the American soldiers to return to his side of the boundary.

As he began to walk back, the border guard turned, dropped to one knee and fired on the Americans, wounding the U.S. soldier.

After the border guard ran into a nearby abandoned religious school, U.S. soldiers said they took more fire from the building and called in close-air support.

An AV-8B Harrier jet dropped a 500-pound precision-guided bomb on the building, according to the report.

American officials said U.S. and Pakistani troops continue to work closely together to patrol the border area between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

(01/01/2003; 13:57:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93129)

The New World Financial System with Gold at its Center

The New World Financial System with Gold at its Center

Trends can be reversed. There is no reason why the USD must
relinquish

its role as the world's reference and reserve currency.
This role will

not be relinquished if the U.S. Treasury recognizes the
supreme value

of gold in world finance.

1. The United States must double its Treasury tonnage of Gold
Reserves from 8k ton to 16 k ton

2. Step 1 accomplishes mainly the purchase of TIME.

3. The TIME to (while giving the USD stability and

credibility by

being backed by instead of approximately 90 billion
USDs
of gold at current prices, 180 billion of same) :

a. maintain very low interest rates and increased
money supply

b. use the increased money supply with low lending
rates to

fund increased research and venture capitalism

within the United States

that will:

a. gradually reestablish a manufacturing
economy of not
only high tech goods and system,
but also low tech
goods to use

a. domestically

b. for export

Basically, this is what China is doing.

What applies to the United States also applies to Europe.

Europe is ahead of the U.S. in this regard in
that its gold

reserves ( in proportion to the size of its economy and
overall debt)

is higher. Also Europe is diversified and more self
sufficient in terms

of production of high and low tech goods, both for domestic
use and

for export.

Oil and natural gas , their temporary shortgages and price
swings,

just as the threat of war in the middle east and North
Korea, play a role

in how gold relates in price to the USD. But this is not
the long range

relationship. All the various factors that affect the price
of these energy

commodities as well as the world political situation must be
analyzed

carefully, but they should not obscure this future stronger
relationship that gold will have as it is used within a new
world economic system.

AX

Black Blade

(01/01/2003; 15:30:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93130)

Energy Business Watch Report

Black Blade: The "Coming Natural Gas Crisis" report posted by Boilermaker has some serious implications for US energy needs. This is a short synopsis of the report's conclusions:

Even for an industry long accustomed to high price volatility, the last two years have been awild ride:

� In 2000, spot-market prices quadrupled in less than nine months peaking at $8.72/MMBtu in January 2001 - at a time when no one in the industry was predicting steep increases

� Less than three months later prices began to plummet � dropping below $2.00/MMBtu
even before the September 11 th terrorist attacks

� In March of 2002, prices again unexpectedly sky-rocketed for the second time in 18 months � doubling at a time when consumption was at a seasonal low and the amount of natural gas in storage was at record levels

What is driving this volatility? Are we at a critical turning point, in which the forward delivery price curve is again likely to shift? If so, when? How sharply? And in what direction? Over the past six months, EBW has sponsored a path-breaking analysis to get to the bottom, once and for all, of the fundamental drivers of both supply and demand in the North American market and predict more accurately likely near and mid-term price levels.

The results of this analysis are stunning. In particular, EBW's report�which will be released publicly in November�concludes that:

� While it is possible that spot market prices could take one last short-term dive this fall, when unused storage capacity may be reduced to zero, by no later than December or early
January, the forward delivery price curve will shift sharply upward

� Further, this upward shift will not be a short-lived event; instead it will mark the beginning of a period of at least 36-48 months in which prices are likely to be consistently well-above current levels

� This upward price pressure stems in part from a huge shortfall in supplies available to the U.S. market, which are likely to be at least 1.0 Tcf short of next year's needs even if there is zero increase in demand.

� Further, at the same time that available supplies are dropping to the lowest in more than a decade, demand is virtually certain to exceed current forecasts�due in part to the impact of the 200,000 MW of natural gas-fired generating capacity that has been added since 1999 and tightened NOx restrictions that go into effect in 2003 and 2004. These sustained much higher-than-expected prices in turn could have far-reaching implications for every sector of the industry, including the future direction of merchant generation, the value of existing coal and nuclear capacity, the future role of power marketers, and the ability to refinance.

Aristotle

(01/01/2003; 15:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93131)

ax, I'm sorry to be such a pain in your side about this

I still think your proposed Gold-buying scheme for the Treasury is a muddle. Do you *really* think there are another 8,000 tonnes out there in the marketplace so easily had in exchange for the Treasury's dollars??? While facing that puzzle, through what mechanics do you then envision that the Treasury may come up with the vast amount of dollars as necessary to compete for (purchase) this 8,000 tonnes of Gold in the present marketplace?

To make a long story short, I can see how your scheme would rocket the price of Gold, but I can't see how it could do anything beneficial for the fate of the dollar. It's one thing to just *say* such and such and end result may be done or built, but it's quite another thing to appreciate the mechanics involved, recognizing that the blueprint can't possible be drawn and implemented.

Can you offer up anything more to address the nuts and bolts of this Treasury Department scheme of yours?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Black Blade

(01/01/2003; 15:40:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93132)

Gold price rises as miners stop hedging

http://afr.com/companies/2003/01/02/FFXXWLT3EAD.html
Snippit:

A key factor helping push gold prices to five-year highs is that miners have stopped betting the price will fall, according to Deutsche Bank. While fears of a Middle East war have been blamed for gold's run to almost $US350 an ounce, the change of thinking by miners is just as important but not as obvious. Gold is now 30 per cent higher than the prices below $US260 seen early in 2001. "Historically, at these prices, the producers would have been very active in the hedge market," Deutsche said. "The belief that we are in a bull market has led to negative sentiment towards the hedged producers. Very little new hedging is being put in place." Central bank selling was also a key reason for slumping gold prices in the late 1990s, but buying by China, the Philippines and Venezuela helped offset selling by European central bankers. Deutsche said another major factor in the gold price rise in 2002 was the decline in the US dollar.

Black Blade: I would expect to see much higher Gold prices in the New Year.

Old Yeller

(01/01/2003; 15:41:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93133)

Deconstructing Bernanke

http://csf.colorado.edu/mail/longwaves/2002/msg02856.html
Who better than Jim Grant?

Happy New Year,USAGOLD and all the fine purveyors of
gold tinged news and opinions who post here.

The year of gold's revenge;sounds delightful.

Let's get physical.

Black Blade

(01/01/2003; 15:52:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93134)

Gold glows as tension grows

http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,5787164%255E462,00.html
Snippit:

A PALL of gloom hanging over global financial markets has given gold a New Year's Day rally, cementing the precious metal's safe-haven status. In 2002, gold was a favoured alternative investment in financial markets dogged by economic weakness and corporate disappointments. Market watchers said gold would remain an investor sanctuary for some time, with stocks set to start 2003 in the same fashion they ended 2002 � with sluggish, uninspired trade amid dull global sentiment. Overnight Tuesday, Wall Street ended its third yearly loss in a row � its longest losing streak since World War II. "It's been a tragic three years for most stock investors, and we're all looking forward to 2003," American analyst Kevin Carey of Indiana's 1st Source Bank said.

Black Blade: I have no sympathy for those who lost it all in the stock markets. If they did not take prudent steps to protect themselves from the economic downturn, then too bad. Precious metals are a form of portfolio insurance. Who but the most irresponsible would rive without auto insurance? Or buy a home without homeowners insurance? Or not have medical insurance? The same goes for portfolio insurance. I have no sympathy for irresponsible investors. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months� expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

Leigh

(01/01/2003; 16:43:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93135)

Old Yeller re Grant Article

Old Yeller, if that's the kind of talk that goes on during Fed Christmas parties, it's no tragedy that a plane crashed into the Florida building last month during exactly such an event!

ski

(01/01/2003; 16:43:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93136)

Silver thoughts .......

Have greatly enjoyed the recent silver discussion. "You haven't seen anything yet" seems to be the appropriate title for the POS at the start of this new year.

Some of you may have been following my posts on silver. (example: 5-20-02 #76064). I started a personal project to document a list of approaching forces that are going to impact the POS. Over the years I have learned to trust the FACTS and ignore the OPINIONS. To qualify for my list, the APPROACHING FORCE had to meet two requirements. First, it hasn't yet happened. Second, it has to be fairly large in scope.

The result of this work radically CHANGED even my own bullishness on silver and I had been following the this commodity for nearly 20 years. This came as a surprise. I could not believe the great length of the list to date. (Over time, I have posted the original list and updates on this forum.) Before I began this work I had thought that I had already done all of my silver buying. I was already well overweighted in AU by any measure. But as the list grew and grew, my personal CONCLUSION from the assembled FACTS told me to resume aggressive buying.

Another operational principle that I penned and use says, "It makes no sense to purchase good economic advice (or spend valuable time on the web etc.) and not make purchases, adjustments, or otherwise heed the advice by putting at least some of it into practice." Again, I followed my own advice.

How credible is the APPROACHING FORCES work? As of December first, the list had grown to 65 forces. (3 more will be listed below for a new total of 68) Bob Chapman, from the International Forecaster, saw the list and asked for permission to reprint it in his newsletter. This was done on one of his December issues. Credibility? You be the judge.

I sure that someone will say that they don't agree with 10 of the forces listed. Fine. Take any 10 from the list of 68 and you are still faced 58 forces that are almost certain to move silver higher.

It seems like someone is always bringing up some kind of phantom or incomplete information about silver to shoot holes in the bullish arguments. (ex. digital photography). THIS DOUBT IS AN EVER-PRESENT FORCE IN ALL BULL MARKETS. It is said that markets climb a WALL OF WORRY and fall down a SLOPE OF HOPE. Both statements imply ever-present DOUBT.

In investing, I find it useful to reduce complex problems into simple questions. Is there a loch ness monster? Does bigfoot live or not? Are UFO's and aliens for real? Is silver going to appreciate more than gold on a percentage basis? These simple questions are answered with a simple YES or NO period!! There is a great body of information to support both sides of the above issues. I think of them as two huge mountains. Two mountrains of scientific reports, eye witnesses, expert commentary, video clips, zodiac charts, rumors, public opinion polls etc. There are YES and NO mountains. BUT ULTIMATELY, ONLY ONE OF THE MOUNTAINS IS VALID. The other is wrong and should be trashed. In practice, I am always opened to some outside force entering the equation and use stop loss strategies. (Whenever anyone in life has shown me that my thinking has been wrong about anything, I wholeheartedly thank them and immediately latch on to the new-improved information.) But, I also force myself to ACT on my yes or no questions instead of just debating them forever.

My personal conclusion: Silver is still in the very early stages of a giant bull market and will outperform gold before it's over; even surpassing gold in price for a time.

..................

Especially for R Powell

65. As the worldwide bear market in equities grinds onward, advisory services, brokerage houses, pension fund managers, mutal fund managers, certified financial planners and investment advisors will increasingly come under the gun for non-performance. More and more, if these PAID PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVISORS want to keep their accounts, jobs, commissions and bonuses they WILL BE COMPELLED TO BUY THE POSITIVE PERFORMANCE OF THE PM SECTOR (whether they like it or not). For them, the new mantra will be, "Buy or Die".

66. With rare exceptions, all of the PM's (gold, silver and platinum), appear to be "joined at the hip" and have historically moved together in price. The market outlook for platinum is presently neutral (1-03). However, gold appears to be in the early stages of a strong bull market that is supported by excellent fundamentals. DUE TO THE INTERRELATIONSHIP OF THE PM FAMILY, A MAJOR MOVE INTO GOLD WILL AUTOMATICALLY FUEL A CORRESPONDING BUYING INTEREST N SISTER SILVER.

67. A precious metals INVESTOR is an individual who buys precious metals with the expectation of selling in the future for a profit. There are genearally three classes of precious metal investors that will emerge: the un-informed-wealthy, the smart-wealthy, and *joe-sixpack-amateur-investor. When the inevitable wave of PM investment buyuing begins, the un-informed-wealthy will buy gold because it is going up and that's what they always buy. The smart-wealthy will buy a higher percentage of silver over gold-platinum because SILVER WILL OFFER A HIGHER PERCENTAGE RETURN. When JOE-SIXPACK-amateur-investor starts is investment buying, he will choose silver over gold-platinum because he GETS MORE FOR HIS MONEY. Conclusion: By all accounts, SILVER WILL WIN THE PM INVESTMENT POPULARITY CONTEST. Evidence of this scenario playing out wil be observed in a narrowing of the gold-silver ratio.

*Footnote to Joe-Sixpack: In 15 years of talking the stock market with novice investors, one particular phenomenon has happened virtually 100% of the time. Given the same industry, tell Joe about company X selling for $1 per share and company Y selling for $30 a share. He will want to buy the one dollar stock EVERY SINGLE TIME even though the higher priced stock may, for any number of concrete reasons, holds exceptional promise for a greater PERCENTAGE return. (I have never been a stockbroker ... but I talk the market)

..................

Constructive criticisms welcomed. Happy New Year to us!

Goldrush

(01/01/2003; 16:47:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93137)

Oil shocker

ski

(01/01/2003; 17:30:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93138)

What will we ultimately call the depression??

Black Blade ... always enjoy your posts .... but I have an issue .... I'm such a pain.

CATCH PHRASES appear all over history: "The War to End All Wars", "I Have a Dream", "Hippies", "Stock Market Bubble", "Bubblevision", "New Ager's", "Generation X", "Read My Lips", "Follow the Money", "The Great Depression" etc.

In most cases, the CATCH PHRASE that stays in usage is the one that "say's it best".

Black Blade, you see the hard times and have called it the "New Great Depression". However, you may not be aware of it, but, around 15 years ago, Doug Casey also saw the coming problems and gave it the name, "The Greater Depression". His catch phrase imples depression and that it will be more intense than the last.

Which "say's it best"???

1. New Great Depression
2. The Greater Depression

I like you ....... but I also like #2 better!! "Would You Rather Fight or Switch?" (catch phrase from an old cigarette commercial)

Black Blade

(01/01/2003; 17:34:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93139)

Silver shoots up on reduced arrival

http://www.outlookindia.com/pti_news.asp?id=108747
Snippit:

Silver prices shot up on the bullion market today on fresh buying by local parties amidst restricted arrival which created tight stocks position and closed with significant gains. Gold, on the other hand, after showing losses in the last two trading sessions on stockists selling, emerged with moderate gains on local buying. Marketmen said silver gained strength on fresh buying amidst tight stocks postiions as most of the overseas market remained closed for winter break and new year celebrations and blocked the supply. They said gold was better on reports of hightened tension between US allies and Iraq and triggered buying by stockists considering it to be a safe haven during such type of crisis.

Black Blade: This one's for the Silver Bugs. Demand continues to be strong in India and will strengthen for all PMs as we enter the Asian Wedding Season.

Black Blade

(01/01/2003; 17:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93140)

Re: ski

Having never smoked Tarringtons I see no reason to switch, however, I use the phrase "New Great Depression" for lack of any mainstream phrase to identify the deepening recession and economic shocks that are sure to rip through the economy going forward. Some may be saying much the same when they refer the the "Secular Bear Market" as stated by David Tice among others when referring to the declining stock markets. But it may be true that we are closing in on a "The Greater Depression". Actually I like it! - The phrase that is.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Goldrush

(01/01/2003; 17:55:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93141)

R Powell

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2619997.stmI also watch for news on silver and have come across a story
on silver boards that has been making the rounds.

It says a threatened mining industry strike in Poland has
juiced silver prices recently. I have had trouble tracking this
down as I never realized Poland was a big silver producer.

Here is what I found> apparently Poland produces about
35 million oz of silver. Perhaps others could clarify this
number. In any case here are some sites to view.

http://www.kghm.pl/en/firma05.php

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2619997.stm

I own gold and silver. I have heard also the saying that
platinum goes first, then gold, and lastly silver.
As gold gets more expensive "poor mans" gold becomes
a more affordable substitute.

Black Blade

(01/01/2003; 18:01:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93142)

Gold Starts Year Off Negative

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=1&sBackUrl=&dbrushwidth=&charttype=&gd1=&gd2=&benchmark=∈fos=∈dtype1=∈dtype2=&volumen=
Gold took a quick spike lower in OZ tonight (see link) as most players are out of the market until next week. The Tocom will open on Monday. Should be fun to watch the few players not nursing hangovers puch the POG around.

- Black Blade

Goldrush

(01/01/2003; 18:01:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93143)

Company claims to be 2nd largest producer of silver

http://www.kghm.pl/en/oferta02-5.phpKGHM Polska Miedz S.A.

http://www.kghm.pl/en/oferta02-5.php

Link above takes you to the web page
that makes the claim.

Arcticfox

(01/01/2003; 18:02:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93144)

Prepare for the Meltup - Gold

http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/market/news/CliveMaund/1041453016.phpSnip..

By: Clive Maund, Diploma Technical Analysis

Gold's impressive breakout in December provided the final confirmation, if any were needed, that it is in a bull market.

Christian

(01/01/2003; 18:31:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93145)

Massive deflation is invitable

The creation of $ trillions, created $ trillions of debt, and now the interest and principal on those debts is killing the economy. In 1997 interest cost took 23% of profits and in 2002 it took 100%. We have a national declining income and a rising debt service. We have a rising GDP measure which can not measure nor make a distiction between what is good for a society and what is bad. Turning this country into an economic concentration camp on tax payers expense will increase the GDP. Bush Senior is right when he said the American people are fodder units. You know what happens to fodder. Debt sure can reduce a persons net worth when collateral is falling in price. Greenspan is now forced to monetize gold in an attempt to save the real economy that is not even in the GDP measure. Monetizing homes will turn into a disaster just like monetizing other countries was. Monetizing Iraq will turn into a disaster. Gettin rid of the Iraqi dictator would be a good thing if only we didn't need the their oil to add to our GDP.

Mr. Bill

(01/01/2003; 18:39:24 MDT - Msg ID: 93146)

@ski msg#: 93136 � Silver mountains

Now I can understand your many points about how silver just has to go to the moon. But I do have one minor problem. It seems like the total amount of silver produced since day one is in the neighborhood of 40 billion ounces. After WWII there was somewhere around 6 to 10 billion ounces around. And I will give you the point that it was all consumed, although I still believe things like silver eagles are not consumed.

Now silver was always money, just like gold. And I believe everyone accepts the fact that most of the gold mined is still around somewhere. After all, you do not throw precious metals in the garbage. So where is the 25 to 30 billion ounces of silver that were money prior to WWII.

Black Blade

(01/01/2003; 18:44:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93147)

Petroleum Runs Higher, Gold Lower

http://www.crbtrader.com/data/mktcom.asp
The USD is lower as is Gold, but Oil and NatGas surge as the New Year starts. Should be interesting when a real market opens.

- Black Blade

donnemuir

(01/01/2003; 18:48:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93148)

Contest

WOW!!! what a lucky guess...and great way to start the New Year...Thanks to MK our host and to Sir Gandalf for his play-by-play.

And Thanks to all the regular posters; they have made this the premier forum on the net.

Have prosperous New Year...get a load of gold (& silver).

donnemuir

Carl H

(01/01/2003; 18:51:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93149)

Ski: Reasons #61-64

Ski, Could you post reasons 61-64. Thanks!

R Powell

(01/01/2003; 18:51:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93150)

Ski // Black Blade // Goldrush

Thanks guys for the heads up on silver news.

Ski, I have your impressive list printed out and will add the latest additions. I agree with the "wall of worry" theory and have found myself trading more cautiously of late. Maybe I still can't really believe it's REALLY starting. Tuesday's trading saw a 20 cent range in silver. I need to steel myself for wider swings and the inevitable pullbacks that we'll see.

Black Blade, supply shortages, real or perceived, will probably be the strongest of all factors in the up/down equation, at least until an all out mania ensues. If so, that will be something to behold!

Goldrush, your info sent me to my trusty Silver Survey where I found (page 149) Poland listed as having produced over 37 million ounces in 2001 and over 30 million every year from 1995 on. The company you mentioned is listed (page 152) as the second largest supplier (second to Industrias Penoles). I remember (from somewhere?) that this Polish company is primarily a copper producer so this silver is by-product. This is not unusual.
Thanks again to all
Rich

mikal

(01/01/2003; 19:07:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93151)

@Mr. Bill

Good points. And "where went the 25 - 30 billion ounces of Ag that were money prior to WWII?" I have a couple of those ;) Great keepsakes when they're not melted and a piece of history.
But what business does the U.S. government have in depleting the strategic silver stockpile down to nothing? In a nation #1 in munitions production, high-tech and security consciousness? You and I know.

slingshot

(01/01/2003; 19:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93152)

Happy New Year

Happy New Year to all at the forum.

Congratulations to the Winners of the Contest.

Slingshot-----------------<>

sector

(01/01/2003; 19:32:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93153)

Mr. Bill: "Where did the silver go?"

A good portion of it was permanently consumed......by the largest single application useful for silver. The photosensitization of imaging film. Silver halide in double-sided X-Ray film and consumer photography applications constitute the largest group of marginally recoverable silver.

Due to archival regulations stipulating long medical file holding periods [Most five years, many lifetime] medical silver recovery is not a significant pool of scrap metal that affects the market as central bank holdings do for gold.

Why did the US sell its once mammoth stockpile? Ask former President Clinton. Wager that he traded some or all of it for gold at 50 to 1 ratios...gold that he then sold below market prices.

The LBMA silver trading volume intersects zero late in the first Quarter of 2003.

There is only one metric that can raise this LBMA trading volume�a rising price.

silvercollector

(01/01/2003; 19:46:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93154)

Black Blade

Dear Sir,

May I ask if you hold shares of any Canadian natural gas companies?

Mr. Bill

(01/01/2003; 19:48:30 MDT - Msg ID: 93155)

@sector msg#: 93153

Not likely. Prior to WWII the world was not overly industrialized. So, much consumption of silver could not have occurred. In fact, it took almost 60 years of massive industrialization just to get rid of 6 to 10 billion ounces. Prior to WWII virtually no silver was consumed in the industrial sense. It is still out there.

mikal

(01/01/2003; 20:04:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93156)

(No Subject)

Re: Ag strategic stockpile You: "wager that he traded some or all of it for gold..." I do not wager with my investments if I can help it. But I cannot imagine that Clinton would have the authority or motive to do that.
And even a coalition of U.S. officials is powerless against the wishes of the puppetmasters, who yield a full compliment of "tools of persuasion".
More likely it dissappeared directly to the stockpiles of those most knowledgable of it's strategic value, most able to ration it and further accumulate and "manage" it.

Black Blade

(01/01/2003; 20:10:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93157)

Re: silvercollector

Actually I hold shares of only a few NatGas companies such as Devon Energy (DVN), and Questar (STR) as well as the Fidelity Natural Gas Select Fund (FSNGX), and NatGas trusts such as Dominion Resources (DOM) and San Juan Basin Trust (SJT). I have shares in other energy sectors as well such as USEC (USU), Amerigas Partners (APU), Ferrell Gas Partners (FGP), Northern Border Partners (NBP), as well as a few Utes, and recently El Paso (EP) and Williams Co. (WMB). However, I don't have any shares of companies that are specific to Canada. Most of what I do have pay out good dividends and funds from operations (FFOs) for current income � though I probably should actively look for work one of these days, but that would cut into my gym time and my hunting and fishing.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

sector

(01/01/2003; 20:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93158)

@mikel "Clinton Didn't have the authority to sell silver?"

Who had the authority to sell it? Perhaps......you imagine it was sold by the Tooth Fairy? It's gone...or perhaps you are going to disput that fact?

Check the USGS site for the years and tonnage of US silver export. The Defense Silver Stockpile was sold by order of the resident just as the coming purchase of silver has been approved by order of the President. Post your e-mail and I will send you a nice chart of the relevant periods of silver loss.

As for Presidential precious metals sales and/or loans or swaps see the goldensextant.com for the full history of gold swaps complete with FOMC tracnscript testimony from three Federal Reserve officials, Angell, Mattingly and others. The Fed reports it has 8,000 tonnes but they have swapped a portion of it. No one knows how much has been swapped and with whom.

[Mr. Bill] the greatest single user of silver is the medical and consumer photography sector. If you need a clue as to the amout involved, visit your nearest mid-sized hospital and peek at their film library...there's your silver. In case you haven't noticed the world population is a bit larger than it was in 1960.

I'm sorry Mr. Bill if that fact disturbs you. I didn't mention the pre-WWII era as a user of silver...I didn't need to.

There isn't any mountain of silver just waiting to crush a silver rally...anywhere. I'm also sorry if that fact disturbs you.

There may be deals with Mexican producers but no huge stash in Vienna or Genova or even Budapest.

mikal

(01/01/2003; 20:44:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93159)

@sector

You have short memory and put words in my mouth. It was "traded silver for gold" that was being discussed, not whether he sold any. Don't count on tooth fairies.

ski

(01/01/2003; 21:02:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93160)

Approaching Silver Forces #61-64

Carl H #93148

When I add a new "Approaching Force For Higher Silver Prices", I sometimes "plug them in" to my own list where they "read logically" rather then just adding them the end. With this in mind, I THINK, (but am not positive), that this is what you want.

...................

61. For eons, top brokerage houses, astute financial advisors and professional money managers have RECOMMENDED a baseline 5-20% PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION into precious metals. Partly due to the lengthy, worldwide bull market in equities and the extended bear market in precious metals, this sage advice has been largely ignored in recent years. A return to this prudent guideline will equate to an increase in PM demand.

62. The prophecy that "China is a sleeping giant" is certainly proving to be true. As a group, CHINESE PEOPLE are not only extremely hard-working but they also RANK AT THE TOP AS SAVERS. Furthermore, they have more experience with the pitfalls of paper currency than any other nation. The combination of the above factors clearly suggest a future, high level of precious metal demand.

63. A great speculator looks for "REVERSE BUBBLES." (the exact opposite of BUBBLES or MANIAS), where everything that can possibly go wrong over an extended period of time (at least several years) HAS and the bear has fed upon itself to a point of hyper pessimism. The still viable investment will be on sale for 90% off or more. All competing market forces are ultimaely reflected in one single measurment; the price. The primary evidence of a reverse bubble in silver is that it has been priced below its worldwide cost of production on a multi-year basis. Therefore, SILVER EASILY QUALIFIES AS A REVERSE BUBBLE.

64. By all CONTRARIAN AND PSYCHOLOGICAL MEASURES, the outlook for silver just doesn't get any better. This essential ingredient of all modern societies is thoroughy un-loved, un-wanted, un-appreciated and un-heard of by the mainstream. (Who can name a single silver mining company?) Its stellar investment merits are un-popular and completely un-recognized in the investment community at large to the point that nobody cares and nobody wants to know. Profound, unwarranted pessimism is at the heart of all historically important bull markets.

...............

miscellaneous info:

At the recent PM conference in San Francisco, a consensus of the experts said that the only people in the PM markets so far are the professionals.

I recently read that only 1% of portfolios contain a position in PM's. This should be confirmed by other sources before it is believed.

I recall way back when that when the Chinese gold market was going to open. It was mentioned that platinum and silver would also trade. Does anyone have any info on this possibility?

It was reported that banning certain wood preservatives is being DISCUSSED (and is not yet law). A silver based preservative with a projected annual usage of 100 million ounces was given. I don't think this has happened yet but worth watching.

Where has every ounce of the historically, mined silver gone? No human being could ever answer a question like this. The next best approach is to look for worldwide, stored silver inventories. Ted Butler has proposed this question for years and no large, previously unknown inventories have ever turned up. Only the KNOWN inventories are showing depleation.

The only two sources of a large supply of silver that I could DREAM UP are: 1. Russia ..... How much did they stockpile during the Cold War era? How much has not been smuggled out of the country and sold on the open market. 2. Will someone ever figure out how to get silver out of seawater?

When history books are written about the coming PM price boom, what bull market started first ... gold or silver? We have forgotten that silver bottomed at $3.50 some years back and has slowly been working its way up since then. Strict textbook, technical analysis says that silver led gold higher.

I've said enough .....

erayboy

(01/01/2003; 21:27:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93161)

SKI - Silver Facts / Rules - Approaching Silver Forces #61-64

Ski:

Is there any online repository of this collected wisdom?

I'm adding silver since I, also, believe it will surpass GOLD percentage-wise, and perhaps even price-wise as it may become a rather scarce but essential industrial metal for its antibiotic and super-conductive properties -- and it is consumed not stored as is GOLD.

Thx.

ER

R Powell

(01/01/2003; 21:43:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93162)

Missing silver

There is still an unknown and unknowable amount of silver in this world in coins, silverware, jewelry, works of art, old electronic equipment, old photographic records, etc. Who can say or even guess how much has been mined during the last 5000 years or longer? I don't think anyone was even interested enough to venture a guess at this question until relatively recently. The CPM group first published a Silver Survey in 1971. I'm sceptical of their numbers but after asking silver analysts to back up the numbers they have been using, they all cited this source.

Silver, as Mr. Bill says, certainly exists but in what forms? At what price do coins get melted down? Perhaps Physicalman can help here as he mentioned he was involved with coin melt years ago.
How much higher does POS go before grandma's tea set goes for melt? How many coins got melted during the 1979-1980 price spike? How many remaining are held for nummismatic value (much higher than melt value)? At what price do fine antique silver art pieces go?
And, assuming POS reaches the "collect and melt" value, how long will this take in a market starved for immediate supply?

From the Survey (sorry to keep refering here but it's about the only source)...
"At the end of 2001, bullion banks are estimated to have totaled 311.2-496.2 million ounces, while investor holdings of silver coins totaled 467.5 million ounces."

And again (page 13)..
"Extensive efforts over many years to identify errors in these estimates and to improve on them has led to the conclusion that, while relatively small corrections may be made, there are no massive, untold, secret inventories of silver anywhere in the world that have not been taken into account in these statistics."

Also, the U.S. government held silver now gone, although an impressive number, does not include normal production, recovery or the coins melted already.
When analysing existing supply, Buffett's 1997-1998 purchase of 129.7 million ounces is always counted but did he get the whole load or, after taking delivery of 89 million ounces (which initiated a lawsuit), did he take paper leases for the remainder? Does he still hold this stash?
So many questions, so little knownledge!
Thoughts?
Rich

R Powell

(01/01/2003; 22:06:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93163)

Ski (93160)

In regard to #64, I've come to exactly the same conclusion, namely, that we are, in reality, a small group. Even those that do trade are mostly totally unaware of even a small number from your list. They simply try to read the charts, waves, the heavens or chicken entrails (Rhode Island Reds work best) or just follow the trend.
It's been my attempt to analysis the analysts that caused me to ask the forum for help in searching for any worthwhile fundamental news. It would not surprise me to see POS double before the market wakes up to the laws of supply and demand.
I don't mean to sound cocky and arrogant in this belief but I still have not found any plausible explanation to change my opinion that silver is and has been in a deficit situation. Its use is inelastic and supply is tight enough that some analysts are guessing at the time when existing supplies will be completely exhausted! Gold is finally getting some attention in the mainstream press as it should but silver....? What are we overlooking? Are we wrong because we're missing something?
Thanks, Rich

Goldrush

(01/01/2003; 22:13:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93164)

Can you believe this???? OUTRAGEOUS!

washingtonpost.com

U.S. Drops Report On Mass Layoffs
Data Helped States Track Patterns of Industrial Demise

By Kirstin Downey
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, January 2, 2003; Page D11

Citing a shortage of money, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will stop publishing information about factory closings across the country, a decision that some state officials and labor leaders are protesting.

The monthly Labor Department analysis, known as the Mass Layoffs Statistics report, detailed where workplaces with more than 50 employees closed and what kinds of workers were affected.

"We have finite resources," said Mason M. Bishop, deputy assistant secretary for the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration, which has been paying about $6.6 million a year for the BLS report.

The department made the announcement on Christmas Eve, as a note on its November -- and final -- report.

The report said U.S. employers initiated 2,150 mass layoffs in November, with workers in manufacturing most affected. About 240,000 workers lost their jobs, it said.

Bishop said that the Labor Department had only $30 million for its dislocated-worker demonstration project, and that it could no longer afford the report. "We believe we need to be funding programs that get people back to work," he said.

Some state officials, who help compile data for the report, criticized the decision. They said the monthly reports helped them steer unemployed people to jobs in new industries.

"In the current recession, MLS data have increased in value and are being followed and evaluated more closely," Catherine B. Leapheart, president of the National Association of State Work Force Agencies, wrote in a letter to Labor Secretary Elaine L. Chao. "The states have come to rely on this information as an economic indicator and a tool for operational decisions on service delivery and funding allocations for dislocated-worker programs."

State officials around the country said they were surprised and unhappy to hear the report was canceled.

"In these times when the economy is in transition, knowing what's going on and who it's going on to, is critical," said Harry E. Payne Jr., chairman of the North Carolina Employment Security Commission. "It's an axiom of human nature that you focus on what you can measure. Now they are taking away a measure."

Payne said North Carolina has been hard hit by plant closings, including those by textile and fiber-optics companies that have moved jobs overseas. He said the program was the only national, standardized source of data tracking plant closings, allowing states to compare their manufacturing layoffs with those of other states.

"To give it up is just awful," said Beverly Gumola of the Illinois Department of Employment Security. State officials use the data to determine "which occupations are going kaput," she said.

Christine L. Owens, director of public policy for the AFL-CIO, whose member unions have been hard hit by the loss of manufacturing jobs, said eliminating the report is an example of a "let-them-eat-cake approach" by the Bush administration.
___________
Hide the bone pile!!!
Welcome to 1984 all over agin.
Geeez

physicalman

(01/01/2003; 22:51:49 MDT - Msg ID: 93165)

everybody--silver

I wanted to give some more figures on silver to complement what i have already posted earlier.
Even though everyone agrees that widespread 3rd level( or modern) industrialization came about after WWII there was heavy use of silver for industrial, photographic and electrical uses from just after the Civil War up until WWII. Thanks to technology a roll of 24exp. film has about 1/100 oz. of ag. compared to earlier films with 1/5 to 1/16 oz. at earlier times for comparable films. Up until the mid-seventies most industrial silver was not recycled so all that film, ind. switches, wires, contacts, plus all the war equipment that was shot down, sank, blown up and abandoned in all the conflicts of the 20th century. As i stated earlier in the 1880's to the start of WWII America electrified, first in the cities, then industrial plants and don't forget all the telephones and telegraph and teletype machines and switching devices. So there was a lot of industrial use of silver before 1945 and most of it is long buried in the dump, at sea etc. etc.
As for the 6 billion oz. that US had at the end of WWII 90% of that was used to mint coinage and redeem silver cert. in the early sixties. When the modern commerative coin program was started in 1982 there was only143 million oz. left and in 1986 when the eagles started to be minted there was only 126 million oz. that is almost gone.
When i was buying silver in 1979 all the bags that i filled up were sold to a refiner (they paid more because ind. users were calling up and guaranteeing to buy anything the refiners were contracting for ( I weighed the bags and deducted 10% for alloy, called them up, they quoted a price, i delivered in 3 days and they had it sold before they had even smelted it) a lot of the bags only figured out to 620 to 665 oz. of silver because of wear.
Another thing to look at is that recycling is much more efficient in the last 20 years and with that we still have a 10 million an oz. shortage per month. Even with a slowing economy the deficit will still be there because base metal mining accounts for the large majority of new mine production. Large worldwide copper producers shut down 30% of world copper mine production to stem surplus and price declines in late 2000 and 2001.
As for what is left available in the world you can go by known large stockpiles or estimated holdings of all types.
India by far has the largest silver stockpile (est. 3 billion oz.) but it is in the hands of 100's of millions and is not feasonably available at current prices. Say there are 1 billion oz. in the US in small private hands in the form of older 90% coinage, Obsolete coll. coins from early 20th and 19th centuries and in coll. bars, rounds, large bars and modern comm. coinage. We will give China credit for 1 billion oz. (they have valued silver historically) Say 300 million for Buffet, the Comex and another large unknown holder. 200 million oz. in South America and a 1/2 billion in Europe, Russia, Central Asia, Africa and Austrialia. Plus we will throw in another 1/2 billion for good measure.
Thats 6.5 billion oz. about an oz. for everyone on the planet. Plus another variable to consider is there has been a 10-12 million oz. per month deficit for the last 12 years and there were mining deficits to new demand since 1965. Alot of production of silver then was remelting of existing coinage because it was worth more than face.
These are rough est. of mine but i have been in silver for 35 years (don't claim to know everything but i have learned a few things) What happens when fiat paper starts to burn and gold and silver starts to be seen as money to more and more people all over the world. If all the silver and gold ever mined in the history of modern man was still available do you think it would be enough to satisfy modern monetary demands
Silver-41 billion oz. 6.7oz. per person
Gold-4.3 billion oz. 2/3 oz. per person

Remember that strategically formed lead may be just as important in the future for those of us that understand history and have some vision.
IMVHO

physicalman

(01/01/2003; 23:11:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93166)

more silver

In 79 i went through approx. 350 bags of silver plus bars, gold and jewelry, 95% was sold by me to be melted. I stopped dealing after being robbed in Ken. for over 6 figures. It got to dangerous to advertise. Some of the larger dealers i know went through 100 bags a day and lots of that got melted. I would say that 75% of the bags that are left were bought at the top and are only sold by those who have got to old,died (heirs sold it) or those who have given up. In the late 70's lots of mid-size dealers would have dozens of bags in stock, very few of today's dealers do, mostly the market-makers.

Carl H

(01/01/2003; 23:29:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93167)

R Powell: Devil's Advocate Against Silver

You ask a very good question: What are we overlooking? Are we wrong because we're missing something?

For the sake of discussion here, I will play the opposite side as Ski and speak out against silver. For the record, 50% of our net worth is in silver bullion or silver mining stocks.

So what could we be missing....

First, consider that The Powers That Be are probably better informed than we are as to what the situtation is in silver.

Second, consider that because of the psycological connection to gold and the existance of the gold derivatives bomb, they do not want the price of silver to rise.

Third, please grant me the assumption that The Powers That Be are very very clever, and very ruthless.

Ok, now let me step into their shoes for a moment and see what I would do in their shoes to keep silver under control. I would view the problem as having three components, supply, demand and stockpiles.

1. Supply is very difficult to increase. About 80% comes as a byproduct of mining base metals. Under modest price fluctuations this supply is price insensitive. I can think of two ways to increase production. First, some of the primary silver miners could be subsidized (covertly or overtly) to reduce their cost of production. Second, the management of the primary silver miners could be pressured/bribed into making decisions to increase production that might not be in the long term interests of the shareholders.

2. Much of the demand is price inelastic because the silver is needed for one or more of it's remarkable properties. The only significant application that I see where this is not the case is jewlry/tableware. Hence, I would encourage the sale of fake silver jewlry. (I believe that this has already been detected. -- Anyone know the status?)

Longer term, I would be actively pushing digital photography. Technologies tend to be adopted in what is called an S-curve formation. That is to say that the first few people adopt slowly and then there is a rush and the last few adopt slowly. I think that in the US digital photography is definitely in the rush stage. For TPTB this is goodness.

Also longer term, I would make sure that the legislation for silver impreginated lumber tests dies a horrible death. Preferrably with it's sponsors.

3. Stockpiles -- Well, I recall reading that Mr. Buffett was coerced out of his first corner on the silver market due to his involvement with Solomon Bros. and that mess. Were I TPTB, I would be again putting pressure on him. I would also be identifying any other stockpiles and figuring out how to put pressure on the appropriate people to bring them to market. (The Vatican comes to mind as a likely holder of silver.)

I would also keep tabs on anyone accumulating a large stockpile and -- discourage it. (A millionaire that had 46tons of Silver recently wound of dead...)

Finally, I would, above all, try to maintain the perception of everything being OK and trying to keep investors disinterested. PHYSICAL Investment demand could blow this whole thing up in no time.

OK, fire away, no rotten eggs please...

steady

(01/01/2003; 23:45:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93168)

piling on

got gold, give it a silver lining!
silver and gold honest money for honest people!

ski

(01/01/2003; 23:58:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93169)

More on Silver

erayboy #93161 "Is there any online repository of this collected wisdom?"

Not yet that I can share that I am aware of.

.................

R. Powell #93163 "We (silver bulls) are in reality, a small group."

A little story to confirm this observation. While I was at the San Francisco Gold Conference a month ago, I sat down to compare silver notes with the primary public relations rep from one of two silver miners there. Just in passing, I mentioned to him that in recent "Daily Market Report" at Finaancial Sense.Com, Jim Puplava had done a piece on a huge short position that had developed in all of the silver mining stocks. I noted that at some point these shorts were going to have to cover and that would help all of the silver stocks. The rep then told me that HE HAD BEEN THE ONE THAT HAD ORIGINALLY DISCUSSED THIS WITH JIM PUPLAVA. As the story went, the rep had been polking around and had done a routine check on the "short interest" in his companies stock. He discovered the unusually large number and had mentioned this to Puplava. Evidently Puplava ran the numbers for the other silver miners that were posted in his "Daily Market Report."

Upon taking part in the above, my first thought was that the universe of knowledgeable, silver market experts is much smaller than I had previously believed! Certainly, this one story doesn't entirely PROVE-OUT our suspicions, but it does shed some interesting light on the subject.

............

It has been noted in the past that several of the world's wisest/wealthiest investors have taken large positions in silver. But what hasn't been noted is that it appears as though several of the WISEST FINANCIAL NEWSLETTER WRITERS have also chosen silver over gold. There are probably a couple hundred financial newsletter writers out there. In my book, there is only a handful that are at the top of their industry and should be listened too. I greatly value the conclusions and recommendations of the following writers (in no particular order): Jim Dines, Doug Casey, Bob Chapman and Jim Puplava. (I also like Bob Prechter but only on the stock market.) These leading professionals all appear to have chosen silver over gold yet few seem to have noticed. Incidently, think of the above as an editorial.

24carat

(01/02/2003; 00:46:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93170)

thought on silver

I purchased 500 silver bullion rounds from an extemely reputable and large volume dealer over a month ago. They were advertized for immediate delivery and I thought that meant the goods were on hand. They have yet to be delivered and the dealer explained that the private mint was behind in their deliveries. Any number of interpetations can be drawn from the above, but I am certain of the integrity of the dealer as I have been a client for several years. My conclusion is that the just in time inventory methods in place will eventually experience a tightness that drives the price much higher. But, I'm a silver bull and as they say in Mexico "Ole".

Ag Mountain

(01/02/2003; 01:02:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93171)

Great heaps of discussion on silver

What's the latest word on pork bellies?

You know what they say in the pits... "Silver is the gold man's pork belly." When you've got security, does everyone become a dice man? It sure looks like it, or else have the gamblers just crowded the gold genius guys out of town?

ski

(01/02/2003; 01:15:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93172)

Silver insider actions?

Carl H #93167 "How the insiders will hold the silver price down....??"

I have aready given some thought to what the silver insiders might do. It was the first entry on my list ...... "Approaching Forces for Higher Silver Prices #1 The same PROFESSIONAL DEALERS and INSIDERS that have done so much structural damage on the downside will surely be positioned to capitalize on the upside. At the very least, their personal accounts will somehow be properly positioned. These peole are just too big, powerful, smart and well connected to let this stellar opportunity pass them up. Their activities are not simply analogous to holding a lifejacket underwater but rather holding a helium filled balloon underwater. It (the silver price), not only wants to break the surface but also wants to fly to the moon."

Carl, I don't have any idea who these people are and I don't want to meet them if they are for real. I don't automatically label them as evil. I have just ASSUMED that there are a few people at the epicenter of the silver market. I also assume that there are insiders at the epicenter of VIRTUALLY EVERY MARKET. After all, what is the primary responsibility of ANY CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER OF ANY PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANY?? If he doesn't know the true financial condition of his firm, what are they paying him for?

Haven't you seen the recent Barron's commercial. "The market goes up ..... you make money. The market goes down ..... you make money." Logic suggests that an insider would only want to know the FUTURE DIRECTION of the market. Whether is goes up or down is unimportant.

Let me reduce this to its simplest terms. Tell me ONLY ONE THING. Tell me the DIRECTION that Disney stock will trade on the first trading day of every year .... and I will be on easy street for the rest of my life. In the case of rising silver prices, why bother take a chance of standing in front of the runaway, silver freight train? It just doesn't make good sense. Instead, why not just make sure that I climb aboard while many will be left at the station??

.............

Speaking of commercials ..... I like the T.D. Waterhouse ones that say, "You should LEARN before you invest." Why didn't they say that in 1982? And, isn't LEARNING one of the reasons that we hang out here??

I've had fun today!!

The Invisible Hand

(01/02/2003; 01:31:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93173)

Drudge highlights Another's thesis with picture

http://www.drudgereport.com/
Euro match: dollar set for [A]nother tough year on the markets

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1039524085845&p=1012571727088
SNIP
The dollar has been falling even though most economic forecasters have predicted that growth in the eurozone this year and for the foreseeable future will be weaker than in the US.

Black Blade

(01/02/2003; 01:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93174)

Poll says many would forgo tax cuts

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B6FDF8C84%2D39D3%2D4006%2DAAD3%2DEDADF808EB72%7D
AP survey finds reluctance to put U.S. in deeper debt

Snippit:

LOS ANGELES (CBS.MW) -- A survey shows that most Americans believe the government should hold off on tax cuts to prevent the country from going deeper into debt. Some 64 percent of those polled said forgoing tax cuts is a good idea, while 28 percent said they favored additional stimulus to give the economy a boost, according to a poll of 1,008 people conducted for the AP by ICR/International Communications Research of Media, Penn.

Black Blade: Unbelievable! Maybe the Government should raise taxes much higher � they should really love that.

Topaz

(01/02/2003; 01:44:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93175)

Hipplebeck, Christian.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=FVXY%2CTYXY%2CGCG3%2CGCM3.=W&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=8&go.y=12Great to see some deflationary posts Guys, (or, lets call it disinflationary....for the time being)
This PoG runup defies the odds and I'm thinking it's contrived to flag a non-existant inflation.
Bond yields are indicating a move to Cash is underway and the Feb/June spreads, despite all the noise, are virtually flat.
DEflation will be flagged when "Backwardisation" becomes the catch-cry on CNBC....shortly!

Goldrush

(01/02/2003; 02:38:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93176)

Bloomberg: Gold best performing funds 2002

Boston, Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. mutual funds devoted to gold were the fund industry's best performers for a second year in 2002. Some of their managers expect the winning streak to be extended this year.

While gold rallied above $350 an ounce in December and reached a 5 1/2-year high, these managers said the metal and shares of gold producers were so badly beaten during the 1990s that they still have room to move higher.

``There hasn't been any big move into gold -- we're not attracting the hot money,'' said Greg Orrell, manager of the Monterey OCM Gold Fund. ``We still sense quite a bit of skepticism. It's still early in this run.''

Orrell's fund rose 92 percent this year and ranked second among all funds. First Eagle SoGen Gold Fund surged 105 percent to set the pace. Funds investing in gold stocks rose 64 percent on average, according to Bloomberg data.

Gold funds have never topped the charts for three straight years since Lipper Inc. began keeping track in 1960. Their last two-year streak occurred in 1986 and 1987, when the U.S. stock market crashed.

Investors added $612 million to the funds this year after withdrawing $9 million last year, according to Financial Research Corp., a Boston-based research firm. Gold funds had net assets of $3.2 billion at the end of November, or about 0.1 percent of the $2.8 trillion in all stock funds.

Benefits of Weakness

The American Stock Exchange's Gold Bugs Index of 11 producers has more than doubled this year after rising 59 percent last year. The index plummeted 75 percent from the end of 1996 to the end of 2000, a period when the price of gold dropped as much as 35 percent.

Gold has benefited from weakness in the U.S. economy, stock market and the dollar as well as a ``flight to quality'' after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, according to Joseph Foster, manager of the Van Eck International Investors Gold Fund, which has gained 86 percent this year.

``There aren't too many investments that do well when others are doing poorly, and gold is one of them,'' Foster told Bloomberg Television in an interview.

The economy grew at an annual rate of less than 2 percent in the first three quarters of 2002. For the full year, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 23 percent, its biggest loss since 1974. The dollar fell 15 percent against the euro and sank 10 percent against the yen.

`Shrinkage of Supply'

Funds also may benefit from reduced gold production, some investors said. Output will fall 2 percent annually in the next five years, according to Gold Fields Mineral Service. Production rose 2 percent a year from 1991 to 2001 after climbing 6 percent a year from 1980 to 1990, the London-based consulting firm said.

Gold miners cut spending on exploration every year from 1997 through 2000, according to Frank Holmes, manager of the US Global Investors Gold Shares Fund.

``Imagine if Microsoft or Pfizer had a huge drop-off in spending on research and development -- that's what it's like,'' Holmes said. ``We're going to have a shrinkage of supply.''

Increasing gold purchases by Chinese investors could bolster the metal in 2003 as well, Orrell said. China began sales of gold bullion to individuals this month for the first time since 1949, when Communists took charge.

Not everyone agrees that gold funds are headed for a third straight year of outperformance. Vanguard Group has barred new investment in its fund, the second largest, since the end of June. The prohibition applies to existing shareholders and retirement accounts, usually exempted from fund closures.

`Chasing Performance'

During the first five months of this year, investors added $124 million to Vanguard's fund, which grew to $480 million of assets. Last year, the fund received $400,000 in new deposits.

``We were very afraid that investors were chasing performance,'' said Rebecca Cohen, a Vanguard spokeswoman.

Cohen pointed to the performance of gold funds during the mid- 1990s as a justification for Vanguard's policy. The average fund rose 9.5 percent in 1995 and 1996, only to drop 48 percent in the next two years, she said. The Valley Forge, Pennsylvania-based firm has no plans to reopen the fund, she said.

Fidelity Investments runs the largest gold fund, and its assets climbed to $504 million at the end of November from $305 million at the end of 2001. The fund gained 61 percent this year.

On the other hand, US Global Investors is gaining only about $250,000 a day in new deposits for its $150 million fund. In the mid-1990s, the fund collected $5 million a day and ballooned to $600 million, said Holmes, the fund's manager.

``At the top of the market, we've always had huge inflows,'' Holmes said. ``We're still not there.''

Black Blade

(01/02/2003; 02:49:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93177)

Market Indicators

http://www.crbtrader.com/data/mktcom.asp
The USD is in strong rally mode tonight rising sharply on a wing and a prayer. Gold is getting hit for a loss over $3 an ounce on bank selling. However, oil and NatGas are sharply higher on oil inventories touching 26 year lows and an ice storm hitting the northeast US and a cold front coming down on the Pac northwest. The US economy looks to take some healthy hits on lowered corporate earnings in coming days and pathetic performances by retailers over the holiday season (the worst in over 24 years). A CNNfn poll reveals that the US consumer is not in very good financial shape:

The question - are you:

Better off than last year? 16%

Worse off than last year? 71%

The same as last year? 13%

- Black Blade

Gold Standard

(01/02/2003; 03:32:49 MDT - Msg ID: 93178)

The "Greater Fool" Theory

Having a bit of spare time on my hands during the Xmas/NY drink-a-thon, beach, barbeques, pool parties and other worthwhile activities, I've been analysing the reasons why gold and silver are, by all accounts, a stellar investment.

Note the use of the word "investment".

Unfortunately, 99% of those who are generally referred to as the "sheeple", do not have any investments. Indeed, they do not have any savings, and each week's income (be it wage, salary or unemployment or other benefits) is used 100% to sustain the standard of living that each currently enjoys.

There is nothing left over at the end of the week. If there is, it is a cautious sheeple who is putting away something to cover a periodical bill.

Unless a sheeple has a savings ethic, not one of them will have a cent left over to "invest" in precious metals.

A particularly circumspect sheeple, who recognises the systemic imbalances in the economy, and who has observed what has happened in Argentina, what is now happening in Brazil and Venezuela, and what may happen throughout South America and the rest of the world, may adjust his/her standard of living (downwards), so as to purchase gold or silver as a hedge against currency degradation.

Most goldbugs, I believe, are investors. That is, they are fortunate enough to have spare economic resources (savings) that may be allocated towards an investment.

It is "investment", and not a desire for protection of one's capital. I seriously doubt whether anyone here has sold their house at the top of the popularly publicised housing market bubble we are currently seeing, and cashed in 100% to purchase gold or silver physical.

It should be noted that if we were all in this to protect our capital, that's exactly what we should be doing, right now! However, in reality, we are "investing" our surplus cash, or alternatively re-deploying our investments, in a belief that gold/silver is going to reward that investment.

Let's pause here, and take a look at that investment.

From a purely investment perspective, gold (and silver) can only work if it "goes to da moon!".

There is no interest, no income, until the underlying asset is sold. That is, unless you are a Central Bank, in which case you are able to lease it out.

We have all seen the lemming-like mantra trotted out by the Wall Street shills with respect to the equity markets, and in the face of Ursa Major, they continue to do so!

+ Buy and hold for the long term

+ Buy in the dips

+ This time it is different!

+ There is always someone who will pay you more in the future! (The Greater Fool Theory)

EACH of these mantra are equally applicable today to gold/silver investment, and are repeated with regularity in all of the forums (forae?). We as goldbugs sneer at the "herd mentality" of the late '90s equity bubble, but blindly follow exactly the same rhetoric in our own investment strategies.

Cloaking our greed as a "capital preservation" mechanism will not wash. It is an investment, pure and simple. After all, we are not "sheeple", are we?

How does gold stack up as an investment? I would say it is a fantastic investment, on one proviso - that ultimately there is a Greater Fool who will take it off your hands.

There is no income, no dividends, and nothing but an hoped-for capital appreciation. What we as investors need to do is to buy low, and sell high. (Rule #1 of investment).

How do we know when to sell? USD $3,000/oz? $33,000/oz?The answer is easy � when the sheeple start selling their houses, and moving 100% into gold/silver, THAT�S when we exit!

After all, we are not the sheeple, we are the goldbugs.

Happy New Year to all � invest wisely!

Black Blade

(01/02/2003; 03:44:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93179)

Ugly!!!

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=1&sBackUrl=&dbrushwidth=&charttype=&gd1=&gd2=&benchmark=∈fos=∈dtype1=∈dtype2=&volumen=
Looks like another round of light trading taking a toll on Gold this morning. The selling pressure is coming mostly from banks but some speculators are sure to follow. That will help to shake loose of the dead wood.

- Black Blade

Topaz

(01/02/2003; 04:44:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93180)

Gold Standard.

Hello GS,
Obviously a fellow Southern Hemispherite, Summer Xmases and all.
This matter of investment needs a little work. You said:
It is "investment", and not a desire for protection of one's capital. I seriously doubt whether anyone here has sold their house at the top of the popularly publicised housing market bubble we are currently seeing, and cashed in 100% to purchase gold or silver physical.
Do you think it may have a lot to do with an individuals timeline whether their Physical Gold Holdings are viewed as "investments" or "wealth" ?
As a wealth asset an individuals PGH's cease to attach to the currency realm and will be disposed of "as req'd" in the future...(hopefully s l o w l y)
Imo there's potential folly in the expectation of handsome Dollar rewards from PGH's...why just look below to the Goldrush post re: Gold Mutuals....100% gains...that's where to "invest" ...NOT Physical, Gold suck's as an investment!
...and if the wheels fall off in a deflationary collapse you may not even be able to "cash it in"....then what?
I think it's great you're into physical PM's GS and best of luck with them but "profiting" in Dollars/Euros etc is NOT the universal motivation.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/02/2003; 05:00:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93181)

"Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

The dollar has been continuously devalued without stop for the past 57 years. It has
not appreciated against goods and services once -- not even once -- in that entire time period.
There are periods when this policy has not been fully reflected in the price of gold.

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

Marie Ballard Ext 106

We look forward to your inquiry.

Renny

(01/02/2003; 05:30:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93182)

Topaz, Gold Standard and all

As far as this world of finance and gold goes I am just a novice. I try to read here when I can but mostly not. I have read A & FOA and have learned a lot. You mention some reasons why folks may want gold, for investment, for wealth asset, etc.

Please let me know if my way of thinking is a good one or not but I think of gold & silver (PM) as an insurance policy. It isn't there for me to wait till the price goes up so I can 'cash in'. It's there for me so that if that world crashes, monetary systems burn and everything goes crazy I'll have something which can be used to get by on, used slowly. I have both gold and silver for this reason. Being one of the little folk I am not a large holder of PM's (less than 100 oz of gold bullion and less than 1000 oz silver bullion) but hopefully enough to do the job if needed.

If these times of chaos and ruin don't arrive then I haven't lost anything, the PM are still there and can be passed on to whomever I choose, completely anonymously. What other 'insurance' can you say that about? But I'd still have had the comfort that if needed I'd had them. And not only that but the buying of them has not taken away from anything else. They (PM's) were bought with completely disposable fiat.

Is my thinking erroneous or am I going about this the correct way? Thanks.

Goldrush

(01/02/2003; 05:44:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93183)

Topaz you should own some physical

Topaz if you buy stock in a cereal company and you don't buy the
cereal, where are the earnings going to come from? If you
believe in the cereal you should buy it, eat it, recommend it to your friends because of its quality, and then buy stock in
the company.

If nobody buys the cereal but many people buy the stock, the
stock is going nowhere. You should buy some physical AND buy some stock. Your stock will go up because there is a demand for the
underlying product. Thankfully asians are buying the physical
and countries like China will provide the physical demand
for the product that miners produce.

Gold Standard- the key bit in the bloomberg article is this:

"Gold funds had net assets of $3.2 billion at the end of November, or about 0.1 percent of the $2.8 trillion in all stock funds."

Can you imagine the impact if that percentage went from .1%
to say 10% of $2.8 Trillion? You are correct, the time to sell is
when everybody starts stampeding into gold and silver.
Thats a ways off yet.

Good Luck to All!

Rock

(01/02/2003; 05:46:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93184)

Quick Question

Both Blackblade and 24 Karat mentioned they had purchased some "rounds" what is a round? Thanks much.

Boilermaker

(01/02/2003; 06:12:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93185)

Rock, Rounds

Silver rounds are used to kill werewolves.

Seriously, they are usually 1oz .999 silver medallions made by miners or private mints that are struck with some sort of design such as commemorative coins. I own some Engelhard "silver prospectors" that have a picture of a prospector panning for gold. I'm not sure why they put a gold prospector on a silver round but it's a nice looking piece.

Cheers,
Boilermaker

Goldrush

(01/02/2003; 06:43:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93186)

Weak labor market

Washington, Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for state unemployment benefits rose more than expected during the Christmas holiday week, reflecting a slowdown in the economic recovery.

States received 403,000 initial jobless claims last week, up from a revised 390,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said. Economists had forecast that claims would rise to 380,000.

Companies have cut jobs as businesses control spending, consumer confidence hangs near a nine-year low, and factories become more efficient. The four-week moving average, which smoothes weekly volatility, rose to 418,750, the highest in three months, from 407,500. It was the third straight reading above the 400,000 mark that economists consider a weak labor market.

Boilermaker

(01/02/2003; 06:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93187)

Spot and Spike

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=1&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=38&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iISpot & Spike got their butts kicked last night but now they're mad and just got loose again.

Boilermaker

Goldrush

(01/02/2003; 07:40:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93188)

JPM halted trading-news pending

I wonder what this is about? hmmmmm

Buongiorno!

(01/02/2003; 07:55:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93189)

Boilermaker's "Prospector" rounds

Concur this is a great piece--have several myself. In case Sir MK locates a cache, would add to my holdings. Our prospector deserves a place at this table because he represents many things that I admire in others here--courage, tenacity, search for true wealth, and the willingness to endure and persevere. My kind of guy!

Buongiorno!

Boilermaker

(01/02/2003; 08:02:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93190)

Black Blade- Oil report from 1995

http://www.ncseonline.org/NLE/CRSreports/energy/eng-3.cfm?&CFID=6277197&CFTOKEN=26060672snip: "Deficient productive capacity has not yet caused an oil crisis, but that does not mean it never will. Significant increases in future world oil demand will have to be met primarily from Persian Gulf supplies. This is an area with a history of wars, illegal occupations, coups, revolutions, sabotage, terrorism, and oil embargoes. To these possibilities may be added growing Islamist movements with various grievances against the West (and particularly the United States). In Saudi Arabia, the extended royal family may effectively control the movement, or a civil conflict between the two sides could endanger oil production and oil exports. Economically, the demand for and supply of a commodity are balanced by its price. If oil demand rises to levels that are beyond the current sustainable production capacity, or if oil production is constrained, oil prices will rise, somewhat dampening demand. However, since oil is so essential to drive modern society, there will be severe competition for the oil that is produced. Therefore, the price rise will be abrupt as will the adverse world economic repercussions. If the IEA and EIA are correct on the demand side, deficient world oil production capacity may cause an oil crisis in less than 15 years. Political disruptions in Saudi Arabia that constrain oil exports could cause an oil crisis at any time.

In lieu of a technological fix, the encouragement of domestic oil production would help address the economic and security problems associated with increasing foreign oil imports and may provide some limited insurance against a potential future oil crisis. To this end, Congress may wish to consider such measures as restoring the full depletion allowance for new oil wells, eliminating the tax on intangible drilling costs, maintaining or increasing the strategic petroleum reserve, encouraging alternative fuels technology, funding continued Federal and joint Federal-industry research on improved oil exploration and production technologies, pursuing energy efficiency gains, and/or removing existing moratoria on oil development in the most prospective domestic offshore regions and Alaska. While most or all of these actions would create great controversy between and among economic and wilderness values, oil operations have long lead times so Federal decisions would be required rather quickly if they are to significantly affect end of the century domestic oil output. However, given the mature condition of the Nation's oil provinces, even if all of these actions are taken, their contribution to energy security would be limited, as some imported oil still would be needed."

comment:
This excellent 1995 report to Congress suggests among other things that some of Opec's oil reserves may be inflated because production share allocations to each country are partly based on reserve size. If this is the case we can expect some surprises in coming years.
The report contains a good history of oil production and major events along with a discussion of the likely future supply. The summary has recommendations for the US to avoid the situation we now face. Obviously, nothing was done, but then the report did not consider confiscation of oil held by evil producers.

This is a good review of the 1995 oil scene and is still mostly valid today.

Boilermaker

White Rose

(01/02/2003; 08:15:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93191)

Bond prices just fell like a rock, anybody know why?

Gold just dropped and bonds went up. Something is strange!

Tacitus

(01/02/2003; 08:22:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93192)

Responding to Renny

Dear Renny,

I think you have got the idea. Personally, I would own 5-10% of my liquid assets in physical gold. A lot of other people on this site would own more. The problem is that small guys like me can't afford to let our money sit without growing. That is why I have the rest in stocks and bonds, for better or worse. I think for better.

Historically, Gold has matched inflation. In other words, it will buy 20 years from now what it can buy today. Historically then, it gives you zero growth (and zero loss). Stocks on the other hand give you historically 7% real growth and bonds 3.5% real growth. That is if you participated in the total market. So the best way to go is to own an index fund of stocks and one for bonds.

Since diversification is a good idea, keep the gold too. Past returns are no guarantee of future returns. If stocks and bonds tank, you have something. All the same, I'm betting on the U.S. economy, for the long run. Others would differ.

Good luck to you.

Salve,
Tacitus

Truthcaster

(01/02/2003; 08:23:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93193)

Manufacturing Index

I think what's going on today has to with
the manufacturing index it went up from 49.2 to a huge
54.7 That caused gold to drop about 5 bucks and still
falling with the dow now up 170 points. This should be
a fun day.

Goldrush

(01/02/2003; 08:29:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93194)

Truthcaster-yep

Hard to believe, what manuf? JPM settled insurance case
splitting settlement- got 60% from insurers. Even after
E-mails!

Lets see what happens with Brazil loans.

CoBra(too)

(01/02/2003; 08:31:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93195)

Timeless Value

Seems like some want to turn back the clock!

JPm was halted, though declined to comment - apparently it was in front of a judge ruling on the Enron 'insured' deals.

Gold is a bit weaker - Silver holding its own. Compared to what is the pertinent question? To the US $, a jo-jo with descending bias?

After all, we're finally in 2003; Probably the 4th. consecutive year of SM-Losses. Uheard of in any histo(e)-rical sense - believe it, as valuations are still way up in bull market territory.

PM's are just struggling to shake the cobwebs of more than 22 years of bear market blues. The bugs are still terrorized by the CB spiders, fearing yet another web of illusional lies and ambushes.

... Oh, No; The gold is gone from the vaults, or heavily obligated and there are no means left to prolong the delusion and charade of "CB's and counterparties standing ready to dump any (more) Gold into the markets, should it be necessary"!

2003 - As time can't be turned back, will be the year of PM's - as Gold is a timeless value - cb2

Hipplebeck

(01/02/2003; 09:01:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93196)

rising insurance costs in the shearing of the sheep

Rock

(01/02/2003; 09:06:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93197)

Boilermaker

Thanks alot for the info, see you learn something new everyday for those that seek shall find. Cheers...

CoBra(too)

(01/02/2003; 09:08:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93198)

JPM Settles with Insurers - bare one -

At about 60% of claims.

Well that's only about 400 Mill. US Dollars short of original claims. Pretty neat - a few Million here another few Billion there and JPM is still a viable concern.

Maybe concern is the correct word. Concern to whom? May this, after all be the correct, though political in-correct, question?

Maybe the Gold Derivative position, assumed to be the world's largest by far, does not directly affect JPM - as it just may be ... it's some-one else's liability?

Wow, who may that only be? ... Not a CB?

Cheers - cb2

cyberbat

(01/02/2003; 09:28:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93199)

Help anyone

Please give me an unbiased scenerio concerning the endless supply of paper money driving down the price of gold although the physical is in short supply and getting shorter. I'm beginning to wonder if this can go on forever.
Thanks,
Cyberbat

Carl H

(01/02/2003; 09:36:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93200)

Re Ski: Silver

Ok, as last night I'm still playing the devil's advocate against silver.

Ski #93172: "I have aready given some thought to what the silver insiders might do."

While the "insiders" have helped to hold the silver price down, I do not believe that they are the prime factor. If DLA stockpile had not been sold off, they would have been unable to hold the price down with paper.

Ski #93172: "Carl, I don't have any idea who these people are and I don't want to meet them if they are for real."

Perhaps I should define what I mean by the term "The Powers That Be". I would include in this category, the Executive Branch, the Fed, Treasury (including the ESF), CIA, State Department. So, yes, they definitely exist. As far as how clever and ruthless they can be -- they toppeled the Soviet Union by guile and ruthlessness. I believe that the strong dollar policy is a direct outgrowth of that action. I highly recommened the book "Victory" by Peter Schewitzer on this point. It describes how TPTB manipulated the price of oil. If they can do oil (the most important commodity, IMO) they can probably manipulate anything.

Ski #93172: "Let me reduce this to its simplest terms. Tell me ONLY ONE THING. Tell me the DIRECTION"

The price will be held around the cost of production for the high cost primary silver mines since they need to be kept in business. This should mean about where the price is today give or take a bit.

Again, please no rotten eggs, I am simply trying to make the discussion balanced and challenge our collective minds.

CoBra(too)

(01/02/2003; 09:49:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93201)

Manufacturing Index Expands!

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhRivxW.VHJlYXN1Well, as far as I recall - manufacturing is just shy of 17% of overall US GDP - down from 36% only 10 years ago. That's probably why, the consumer is playing a major part in growth projections of a predominantly service oriented economy.

Ha, in the case of do it all and manufacture it all GE - buy your fridge and nuclear power plant with it - the production base is barely 6%, as I'm made to understand, today - the rest being financial and some other services - no-one has asked for. And what's more no-one will be asking for it in the future. Jack Welch, really built the future of GE according to a myopic outlook. An outlook, which has seemingly befallen most of the western world's top level management.

OK, if the SM rallies on manufacturing - we'd best re-install some of that basically true, though totally neglected sector back home - and quit exporting it to the Chinese and other industrious peoples.

... Neat to beat the drums on innocent - better ir-relevant numbers ... buy gold on the dips! - as the next stage in this bull market is in the making ... cb2

sector

(01/02/2003; 09:56:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93202)

Yen down, $USD up

Looks like the BOJ is propping up the dollar......and lowering the yen.

It won't last.
++++++++++++++++++++

More on silver.

The central banks have sold 16,000 tonnes of gold in order to suppress its price in the last 8 years.

Any guesses how many tonnes it took to simultaneously keep silver down? What ever that tonnage was it must be added to the normal silver consumption figures to get the total drainage from Western sources whose desire it is to keep silver down. Hint: It's a big number.

Goldrush

(01/02/2003; 09:56:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93203)

"somewhat difficult to explain"!

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries plunged on Thursday, sending yields sharply higher on news that a widely watched manufacturing index rose unexpectedly in December.

The Institute for Supply Management said the magnitude of the improvement in its manufacturing index -- at 54.7 for December, up from 49.2 in November -- was "somewhat difficult to explain at this point." But a huge jump in the survey's new orders sub-index, to 63.3 in December from 49.9 in November, made the report look all the more upbeat.
___________________
I bet. Lets see how the numbers come out in Jan. LOL

Cavan Man

(01/02/2003; 09:56:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93204)

@CB(too)

Speaking for a $2billion US mfg.....we're busier but, alas, terrible margins and profit outlook worse! Don't be fooled. I in those trenches.

Cytek

(01/02/2003; 10:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93205)

Gold and War

http://trending123.com/stocks/stocks/gulf_war_1991.htm Check out the link for charts of Gold,Dollar, S$P and DOW. Just befor the war the markets sold off while Gold went up. Once the war started Gold dropped $25 an ounce.

The traders seem to think this will happen again. However, our environment is totally different today. I do not believe that Gold we get sold if and when WAR starts. This time is very different and there are alot of uncertainties. Not to mention that Gold is at a historically low valuation. Adjusted for "money-creation" inflation of the U.S. dollar, gold is very cheap. If the U.S. gold reserve still exists, it would only provide about an ounce of gold to back every $32,567 dollars that have been printed or exist as electronic demand deposits in bank accounts, (M3). 8.5 Trillion dollars in M3 / 261 million oz. = $32,567/oz. Didn't ANOTHER mention gold at 32,000 and ounce one day?

So what does everybody think Gold will do when WAR breaks out?

Cytek

slingshot

(01/02/2003; 10:11:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93206)

DOW

DJIA 212.00 Volume 530,382,000 shares.At this time of day is this volume weak to support rally? Should the volume be closer to 1,000,000,000 shares traded?
Slingshot-----------<>

(01/02/2003; 10:55:24 MDT - Msg ID: 93207)

@Aristotle: How the U.S. Treasury can Acquire Gold?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/phillips010103.html
@Aristotle: How the U.S. Treasury can Acquire Gold?

Ref: ax (01/01/03; 12:22:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 93125)

ax (01/01/03; 13:57:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 93129)

Aristotle (01/01/03; 15:34:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 93131)

Artistotle - Thank you for your comments and question. I appreciate
any dialogue on the subject.

I also refer you to the essay of Julian Phillips on the subject

of gold and the central banks which I read last night. It has a

very important analysis of how Alan Greenspan may now be viewing

gold in the financial system, and many other valid points as well

as crucial statistics on central bank reserves. I recommend this

reading very highly.

Yours is a legitimate question - how the U.S. Treasury can Acquire

Gold

First of all, 8k tons is the desired figure - as a start, the amount can

be substantially less. It can be acquired in increments as small as

one ton. There are many sources for such supplies:

1. the Domestic Mines - those mines which are physically located

within the United States, which employ labor within the United

States

2. The supplies of Central Banks that have indicated their willingness

to sell. Certainly this includes Switzerland which is selling now.

This might include Germany, depending how you interpret the

remarks of their officials. When I first started recommending

purchases of gold by the U.S. Treasury in early 1999, it would have

definitely included England.

3. The physical and future gold market - London, New York, Asia

4. Gold bullion dealers within the United States - large and small,

who now offer gold bullion to the general public. They can just

as easily, and gladly so I imagine, sell to the U.S. Treasury, just

as Lockheed -Martin sells fighter jets to the U.S. Dept of Defense

For the reasons discussed in the Jan 1 2003 posts and earlier posts

the U.S. Treasury needs more gold backing for its currency. This

can be done incrementally - in one ton segments. Naturally the price

might adjust upwards; however, it will be a bargain in that so much

more issued currency and debt can now have a much more solid

backing - the solid backing of physical gold. This will allow the USD

to maintain its role as the world's reference and reserve currency -

stable and secure.

Sincerely,

AX

(the entire contents of the above three referenced message is
reproduced below)

ax (01/01/03; 13:57:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 93129)

The New World Financial System with Gold at its Center

The New World Financial System with Gold at its Center

Trends can be reversed. There is no reason why the USD must

relinquish

its role as the world's reference and reserve currency.

This role will

not be relinquished if the U.S. Treasury recognizes the

supreme value

of gold in world finance.

1. The United States must double its Treasury tonnage of Gold

Reserves from 8k ton to 16 k ton

2. Step 1 accomplishes mainly the purchase of TIME.

3. The TIME to (while giving the USD stability and

credibility by

being backed by instead of approximately 90 billion

USDs

of gold at current prices, 180 billion of same) :

a. maintain very low interest rates and increased

money supply

b. use the increased money supply with low lending

rates to

fund increased research and venture capitalism

within the United States

that will:

a. gradually reestablish a manufacturing

economy of not

only high tech goods and system,

but also low tech

goods to use

a. domestically

b. for export

Basically, this is what China is doing.

What applies to the United States also applies to Europe.

Europe is ahead of the U.S. in this regard in

that its gold

reserves ( in proportion to the size of its economy and

overall debt)

is higher. Also Europe is diversified and more self

sufficient in terms

of production of high and low tech goods, both for domestic

use and

for export.

Oil and natural gas , their temporary shortgages and price

swings,

just as the threat of war in the middle east and North

Korea, play a role

in how gold relates in price to the USD. But this is not

the long range

relationship. All the various factors that affect the price

of these energy

commodities as well as the world political situation must be

analyzed

carefully, but they should not obscure this future stronger
relationship that gold will have as it is used within a new

world economic system.

AX

ax (01/01/03; 12:22:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 93125)

THE ECONOMY AS 2003 BEGINS

( quotes from a reuters story and my comments below)

ax: The United States and world economy will not begin

any significant recovery based on the outcome

of any Middle Eastern or North Korean issue.

Nor will the the price of gold be permanently

affected by such outcomes. The economy and gold

will be affected in a significant way only by the

reincorporation of gold into the U.S. and world

financial systems. This has already been hinted

at by Alan Greenspan, talked about by some of us

on this forum, and predicted by some essay writers

on other forums. The year 2003 shall see a major

change in the relationship of gold to economic

life.

Aristotle (01/01/03; 15:34:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 93131)

ax, I'm sorry to be such a pain in your side about this

I still think your proposed Gold-buying scheme for the Treasury is a

muddle. Do you *really* think there are another 8,000 tonnes out there

in the marketplace so easily had in exchange for the Treasury's

dollars??? While facing that puzzle, through what mechanics do you

then

envision that the Treasury may come up with the vast amount of dollars

as necessary to compete for (purchase) this 8,000 tonnes of Gold in

the

present marketplace?

To make a long story short, I can see how your scheme would rocket

the

price of Gold, but I can't see how it could do anything beneficial for

the fate of the dollar. It's one thing to just *say* such and such and

end result may be done or built, but it's quite another thing to

appreciate the mechanics involved, recognizing that the blueprint can't

possible be drawn and implemented.

Can you offer up anything more to address the nuts and bolts of this

Treasury Department scheme of yours?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Cometose

(01/02/2003; 11:13:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93208)

gold /silver @ Cyberbat , Karl H, Cobra2;- manufacturing , Cytek

Dollars up , who's buying ? why? I repeat the REFRAIN of Paul Simon 'SLIP SLIDIN' AWAY' !!!
Japan against the world is not getting much resistance....today...

Cyberbat:

I can't give an unbiased opinion ....I'm too influenced by the information that I have recieved mostly around this forum and in the data that seems to be reconfirming that
supply and demand for gold is being affected by the scales falling on extra weight on the demand side....
GOld is not rising be cause things are good in the global economy....It has very little to do with our little closed off world over here in the western hemisphere...It has to do with culture and perception in the rest of the world...specifically in the far east , middle east and in the banking mentality of Conservatives in EUROPE>....THEY are all saying "SHOW ME YOUR GOLD TO BACK YOUR CURRENCY THAT YOUR PRINTING TO BEAT HELL....." You may want to paraphrase this as SHOW ME THE MONEY.... not to be confused with your currency.....$$$'s

There may be a war premium .....but that has little to do with the dollar slide in our future and it's impact on gold prices.

Karl H: I think that it may be that in the not to distant future SIVER IS MONEY again will be proven globally I heard that Warren Buffett leased forward some of his silver . Perhaps he refused to re new those leases.
And George Soros has also interest in 20% of Apex . Maybe he also failed to renew his forward leases...Oh and there is a rumor that the CHinese have also some Silver interests.
Maybe they are buying now....
A little birdie said this morning that SILVER IS going to SCREAM in the next couple of weeks. See Mahendra / Kitco.

Cobra : Manufacturing went up and what did they manufacture and who is going to buy it ....JETS, Rocket SHips, guns and ammo , Tanks , Destroyer's ,U S GOv't ?
War won't fix what is ailing us ......

Cytek: Bush was echoing the German Chancelor's words earlier in the week about how another Terrorist Strike would cripple the US Economy....The German Cbancellor said that war with Iraq would hurt our economy...George said a retaliatory strike by terrorist is going to break our economy.....THEY KNOW the terrorists are already set up for a RETALIATORY STRIKE. What would you do ? THere's likely going to be no war ...based on what I am hearing now.
It may be that President Bush in his statements is making sure that the American Public knows that war is likely to bring Retaliation and that that is going to cripple the economy ......Now we'll get a pole and see how the American people respond....or we may get a war and an Executive order that assigns GEORGE another term in office during these times that will become marked by a National Emergency , and ensuing extreme measures.

NONE of that has much to do with what is going on with the price of GOLD....Arab world wants to trade Euros for oil,
the times they are a changin.....megatrends are in the making. Got your parachute? and compass?? Stay tuned!!!

THe paper game may go on ....KEEP YOUR EYE ON SPOT.. SPOT Rises or falls in relation to SUPPLY AND DEMAND ...if the futures markets fail to keep up with SPOT or we get into backwardation on prices in the futures markets more often with large spreads......you'll know that the problem is getting worse and to consider investing some more of your gains in physical..

Mr Gresham

(01/02/2003; 11:34:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93209)

test

getting my password saved in on a new system -- what a week == whew! (tellyabouditsomeday)

Mr Gresham

(01/02/2003; 11:38:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93210)

Whitewater ahead

Oh, and Happy New Year to all!

Looks like current is picking up on the river; don't know if I need to stop paddling my canoe, and just focus on steering and looking out for rocks and waterfalls.

(Hey, at least I'm going WITH the current, instead of those others still trying to paddle upstream.)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/02/2003; 11:57:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93211)

Looking beyond one day's trade: Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors

Just as the primary trend in gold is up as shown by our nearby
graph, the primary trend in stocks is down. If you diversify your
portfolio with gold, you not only gain by being in gold, you gain what
you would have lost in the stock market. Richard Russell, the
well-regarded long-time investment analyst who has correctly and
consistently forecasted the direction of both markets, says the stock
market and gold will cross in the 2000 to 3000 area. Think about that
for a moment. What will that mean to your portfolio if not properly
diversified with gold? What will it mean if it is?

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

Old Yeller

(01/02/2003; 12:00:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93212)

sector'silver

I'm a gold guy'so silver is more or less a hood ornament
to me,but,I follow ABX's dastardly deeds with great
interest.ABX appears to be overly concerned with protecting
their silver margins(nyuk,nyuk),considering what a small %
of revenues they represent.

What do feel motivates them to sell silver forward in
such great quantities?

Especially at such seemingly inopportune times,for
instance,early last year.

Renny

(01/02/2003; 12:08:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93213)

reply to Tacitus

Tacitus,

Thanks for the comeback. I think, going by today's prices, PM's are about 58% as much as my liquid assets. This may be high for some but as I said it's all free and clear to do with as I will. It's nice to know I've been on the right track. The folks here have been a wealth of information. Truly the best forum around for helping and educating we everyday people out here.

luckypierre

(01/02/2003; 12:26:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93214)

@BB (#93174) - Tax cuts and polls

It's really not so surprising, when you consider that the lower 50% of American income earners carry less than 20% of the income tax burden, and the share hardly goes up for the next 20 or so percent. It's in their self interest to keep the present tax structure intact, since a great many of them get transfer payments through the earned income credit, and a cut in gov't services would affect them the most. If you weighted the poll towards those who actually contribute to governement coffers, I'll bet the sentiment would swing greatly towards cuts.

TownCrier

(01/02/2003; 12:46:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93215)

HEADLINE: Bush to announce economic stimulus package

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/1722401CRAWFORD -- President Bush said today he will unveil an economic stimulus package next week...

"I'm concerned about all people," Bush told reporters during a tour of his Texas ranch. "I understand the politics of economic stimulus -- some people want to turn it into class warfare."

The president gave no hint of what the new economic stimulus plan will contain, and aides have said in recent days that the president had not yet approved any plan.

-------(see url for article)------

Government stimulus...

"Deflation" will be fought to the last tree: "We shall have the hyperinflation."

R.

Cavan Man

(01/02/2003; 12:54:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93216)

Towne Crier

Within the last year (as in not too long ago), the administration was cautioned by the FED with regards to fiscal stimulus side of the equation.

Yes, it is all playing out according to script.

Black Blade

(01/02/2003; 13:01:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93217)

Car chiefs do not see recovery until 2005

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1039524086600&p=1012571727108
Snippit:

The global automotive industry is not expected to return to the record levels of profitability seen three years ago until at least 2005, according to a survey to be released on Thursday by KPMG, the auditing and consulting group. It identifies recession and consumer hunger for financing incentives as the main factors eroding carmakers' ability to generate substantial earnings. Many of the world's top 100 automotive executives, questioned for the survey, now see a recovery coming two years later than hoped. In 2001, most thought it would come this year.

Black Blade: Just a sign of the times. As the global economy worsens sales are sure to sink � "like a rock".

Cavan Man

(01/02/2003; 13:08:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93218)

To Forum

All this talk about fiscal and monetary stimulus reminds me of the gold trail and has its' consequences. What should be noted is the fact that we are in the process of adding new meaning to the terms "fiscal and monetary stimulus".

I'll never forget meeting a member of the forum in SLC; he is a very smart, successful and nice man. His admonition about two years ago was to "raise your antennae" as the monetary stimulus would likely provide opportunities in the equities markets and beyond. "Stay positive" said he. Well, I've never been less positive (since then or ever) while hopefully seeing the world as it is; maintaining a contrary outlook (not disposition). "At the end of the day",....my absolute gains are as much needed as fantastic; achieving same in jrs. and physical (there's leverage in numbers).

See the world through "legal tender" at this stage. Your foresight will be rewarded.

Black Blade

(01/02/2003; 13:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93219)

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose to 403,000 Last Week

ski

(01/02/2003; 13:12:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93220)

Carl H ... silver scenario

Carl H #93200 ..... In so many words, "But if TPTB did this and this and this and then they did this on top of that, they could hold the price of silver down at will"

Unfortunately, these kinds of discussions do not lend themselves to the web. I live in the middle of nowhere and have wished to find someone nearby to challange my thinking.

On to your basic question. I work in an industry where I need to understand BASIC HUMAN NATURE. In theory, given sufficient effort and resources, anything can be accomplished. We put a man on the moon to pick up a few rock souvenirs. However, the scenario that you have spun to control the price of silver has far, far too many moving parts to succeed and is illogical to the max. Would you buy the stock of any company that announced such an undertaking? It's worse than a dot com. Then suppose that somehow you got this company up and running (controling the price of silver) and ONE BIG PLAYER comes out of some corner of the Mid East and just wants to own a billion dollars worth of silver because he likes the color. Boom! Your done! The whole giant organization that you have created comes apart in one day.

Let's discuss REAL POSSIBILITIES, not WHAT IF scenario's..

................

Renny ..... The late Jim McKeever suggested that in a bull market for PM's, you disignate TWO SEPERATE PILES. One is investment PM's that you expect to sell at a profit. The other pile is insurance PM's that you hold forever. Never mix the piles. This makes the most sense to me!

sector

(01/02/2003; 13:23:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93221)

@ Old Yeller JPM and Selling Silver

I, too am a Gold Guy with silver mostly in the lining......of clouds.

Silver is tough to gauge.

This, because the craven, slinking slugs from JPM have more places to hide in their silver scam. Their derivatives can't be split from Platinum and palladium for example...they are listed as "Other precious metals" by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Why is JPM selling silver? It's part of the overall game to keep all competitors of the dollar from rising as the dollar sinks [Today being an exception as the Japanese buy the dollar and sell the yen]. All it has taken to keep the silver game under control is to sell the Defense Silver Stockpile. A no-brainer for President Clinton.

There is a very large inflation plan playing out in currencies [Including the Euro] and their relationship to the precious metals. The G-10 is trying to get away from selling any more of their precious metals as a hidden policy...they have run out of metal to sell so we await the next phase of Greenspan's Great Adventure.

In all your thinking, think about the G-10 forever losing 16,000 tonnes of their gold. They are bleeding gold and absolutely must bring it under control...with a tourniquet as the best solution.

The "New" currency bills will play a part in the US and Japanese inflation game.

A defacto devaluation is in the wind. The "Shorts" will never really have to cover because a "Fix" at the COMEX is most likely "In". Those that bought precious metals ahead of the deval will win big becaue the precious metals are a world market.
+++++++++++++++++++

BTW don't you just love it when the greasy New York bullion bank shorts start sending a posse of new "names" to the various forum boards to speak about the massive mountain of silver just waiting to be sold at $3 buck an ounce. It's a good sign that the shorts are in a wee bit of trouble these days.

Black Blade

(01/02/2003; 13:59:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93222)

Arctic blast to hit U.S. in second week of January

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030102/energy_weather_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Jan 2 (Reuters) - A big blast of Arctic air is likely to hit the United States in the second week of January, meteorologists at Salomon Smith Barney forecast on Thursday. The Arctic cold's arrival will follow normal temperature levels during the next five or six days, said meteorologists Jon Davis and Mark Russo. "The temperature trends during the second week of January are going to change dramatically as major league Arctic air plunges into the country," they wrote in their forecast. It will be the most significant intrusion of Arctic air into the lower 48 states so far this winter, and would be much stronger than anything that moved into the U.S. all of last winter, they added. The only area that will not be significantly affected by the Arctic blast will be the West Coast, the meterologists said.

Black Blade: If this is true we shall see some serious draws on the oil and NatGas inventories. Get some extra blankets just in case. Hmmm�

Black Blade

(01/02/2003; 14:14:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93223)

U.S. gas stocks seen down 120-125 bcf in weekly EIAs

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030102/energy_natgas_eia_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Jan 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas storage levels are expected to fall by 120 to 125 billion cubic feet (bcf) when weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) data are released early Friday, industry sources said this week. A Reuters survey of 17 industry players showed withdrawal estimates ranged from 68 bcf to 150 bcf for the week ended Dec. 27. On average over the last five years, stocks have fallen 156 bcf in this report. This week's EIA storage report will be delayed one day until Friday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time due to the New Year's holiday. Over the last 9 years, the average low point for U.S. gas stocks at the end of the heating season was 1.09 tcf. Weekly declines of 110 bcf are needed in the remaining 14 weeks of the withdrawal season for inventories to drop to about 1.0 tcf by March 28. The five-year average weekly draw for that 14-week period is 106 bcf.

Black Blade: It looks like "touch and go" right now, but if we get that Artic Blast next week all bets are off. Also, production is falling off sharply and no new plans for ramping up drilling programs in the works. Meanwhile we await tomorrow's data. Should get "Interesting".

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/02/2003; 14:19:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93224)

The Fruit of Your Labor: another day, another dollar?

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html"

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

makcumka

(01/02/2003; 14:26:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93225)

@ sector

You and some other posters mentioned "New" currency bills. What are they and how real is the possibility of yet another exchange of the US paper money? And wouldn't it be a prime opportunity to deflate the outstanding mass of paper dollars in the world? The exchange could be set up to take place only during a certain time frame an by "certified" banks, who just may not have enough on-hand cash to perform such an excange? Any thoughts or info on the subject will be appreciated

Aristotle

(01/02/2003; 14:47:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93226)

ax, OK, so you're unphased by the "Gold availability" side of the equation.

I'll leave that part alone, since we'd just be going in circles. Let's move to the other equally important part of my question, which you've yet to address.

How will the Treasury get its money to facilitate the Gold purchase while not backfiring?

There's a little phrase that still haunts the world that I think you may have forgotten about.

"Deficits without tears."

There is no way the international community will tolerate Gold purchases by the U.S. government -- not at least through additional deficit spending. If indeed the government seeks to add more to its Gold reserves, the only way it will get it is through a violation of every freedom-loving principle that originally made this nation great. But then, it's been done before. Is this what you advocate?

What else would you have the Government do in your stead?

Gold. Get **YOU** some. Leave the Govt out of it. --- Ari

CoBra(too)

(01/02/2003; 14:59:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93227)

Stimulation - The Name of the Game!

Why didn't I think about that before? I could have ended up as a runner up to the Nobel Prize. Demand - or Supply Side doesn't really make much of a difference. What-ever side - stimulate the economy and you'll be the hero...

Wow. the econ news sound just great. Manu up - signs of strenght; JPM recoups a major part of Enron losses - shareholders don't. Dow, Duck and SnP took off like the fire works of New Year's Eve.

Only Tsy's took a beating. Bush to cut taxes and plans to stimulate economy by creating jobs. Sounds great, though every other citizen is asked to participate in Homeland Security anyway - need a job - turn to your friendly government and become a master spy - on your neighbor.

All these new measures to kickstart the economy, which stubbornly remained in the doldrums for the 3rd. year will need new financing. The new colored $-Bills, expected to be introduced sometime this year may just do the trick.
The old Greenback seems to have done its dues. What-ever else could you expect. After all it shed some 95% of its vigor over the past century. Time to replace it by something more hip - and maybe we could simultaneously scrap and forgive all accounts past - only some 34 Trillion Dollars of debt, not counting any derivatives, of course as they have been bets only. Bets on notional value...and who the hell knows what that means, anyway!

Colored pieces of paper - probably all shades of red, since it'd be fitting for new IOU's - will bring about some kind of new deal. And everybody will be happy again. The real producers of this world will go on exporting the products of their labor for a re-created monopoly game. May the playing field, or is it game board, still be the old one the chips are different; Colored!

The difference will be enormous. The deficits will be colored from here on. Add some color to any lady and she may improve her looks - will a rose colored trade deficit approaching half a Trillion, even in colored Dollars improve its effects?

Well, who knows? ... And probably I won't really care, as I won't wait for the advent of colored Dollars, as I already exchanged most into shining sun-colored ounces of gold and intend to keep doing just that as more come available at the still Whole-SALE prices for GOLD! - Do You? cb2

PS: My old Austrian conscience had me confronted with an annoying thought ... or was it in a dream? Anyway, Dr. Kurt Richeb�cher just materialized in my daydream, spoiling it with the reality that my economic intelligence is really as unfounded as most of todays Keynesian dreamers ... pop goes the weasel!

Aristotle

(01/02/2003; 15:04:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93228)

makcumka -- new currency

The plans are already well underway to roll out pretty and newly colorful currency notes.

Before you get too worked up or concerned over the (potentially sinister?) details of currency exchange, pause long enough to first consider the nature of the vast majority of our nation's money -- by and large a digital entry on an account. That is, there's nothing to it. Nothing to exchange. Compared to this cyber ocean of money, the stuff in your wallet is just a frothy foam upon the waves.

In other words, to worry about the mechanics of the representational paper switchover is perhaps a little too narrow -- and too late -- if push comes to shove and fell monetary deeds are afoot.

Does this change your view?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

R Powell

(01/02/2003; 15:26:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93229)

Carl H // Devil's Advocate

There can certainly be nothing learned without questioning both new information and reassessing that which we believe. As time passes, events occur which can verify or prove previous assumptions. The game is ever afoot! I welcome your devil's advocate stance and have often ended my posts with the words "Any thoughts?" I've played the same against the likes of Butler and Morgan.

Concerning the powers-that-be, my own opinion is that they do exist to the extent that broad economic policy goals are set and actions are taken to achieve these. The strong dollar policy was probably one such goal with the detrimental side effect of surpressing the POG. Once the connection was asserted, POG was probably closely monitored. I don't think actions or policies were ever drawn up to specifically contain the POS. It may have happened as a side effect in so much as there is some monetary connection between gold and silver. As for the PTB being better informed than we are, I'll say again that either there is something wrong with our fundamental analysis or we constitute a small number- too small to influence a purely technically trading market that is disregarding the ongoing deficit. I'm uncertain about excess (extraordinary) manipulation in silver. Ahab was only interested in the great white whale, not small fish.

You mentioned the monetary connection between gold and silver as a possible reason to surpress the POS so as to avoid setting off the gold derivatives bomb. Unfortunately, I do not fully subscribe to this theory. I've questioned both the idea that derivatives will cause default or even any great disturbance in the market. I believe $354 was the magic number given for the total derivatives meltdown. Poppycock! I also find the idea of notational value (and the huge dollar numbers involved) given in this arguement very questionable as no one can explain how they are derived.
As an example, I recently BOUGHT the December 2003 silver contract but was afraid a modest downturn in price would trigger a margin call so I also SOLD the March silver to cover any losses. I hold a March 450 silver call (right to buy at 450). The dangerous futures are offsetting (very little risk) and the call can be used to offset the short position if/when POS goes higher. With the short position covered by the call, I hope to fully profit on the Dec. long. The long is covered until I offset (buy back) the March short. Now, my question is, involving two futures and one option here, what is the notational value of this position? How much have I contributed to the potential meltdown? For every long position there is a short, how are these notational value (that supposedly will cause the derivative meltdown) derived?
Given, as you say, "that The Powers That Be are very, very clever, and very ruthless" do you really think they (or any major financial institution) would hold massive derivative positions in gold or anywhere that are not somehow hedged? Hey, if they believe the gold/silver monetary connection still exists, then short gold positions could even be hedged with long silver. There are no limits to the hedging strategies. Also in this regard, I do not agree with Ted Butler's complaint against the Comex for allowing more future positions to exist than there is silver to cover them. I admire Butler's extensive research on silver but he should know that about 98% of all metals positions are settled in cash (account statements). However, the Comex has covered itself with a callable, monthly limit on physical delivery, if needed. In this event, it will be fiat settlement for the rest.
However, his (Butler's) warnings of increased margin requirements should always be keep in mind. As any market becomes more active or otherwise more risky, margins are subject to increases! The casino has the option to change the stakes required to play. As always, this is a 98% fiat paper game only loosely connected to the world of real hold-in-your-hand metal.

Indeed, as you mentioned, silver use is inelastic. If/when silver becomes too pricy for jewelry/tableware, it will be substituted with something else. This is a very tiny portion of silver use and imho, would be much more than compensated by any one of the new developing uses for silver such as the wood presservative use you mentioned. I believe Home Depot has stopped selling (arsenic) treated lumber (as of 1/1/03) and the proposed government ban (if enacted) is scheduled for 2004.

The threat of less silver use from digital photography has not been verified over the years. Photographic silver use was down only 4% from 2000 to 2001, not unusual considering the economy and the travel industry. How many of the worlds' people can afford a small film camera? How many a digital camera and the computer to go with it?

Your words...
"PHYSICAL investment demand could blow this whole thing up in no time."

Yes indeedy, and if it does not, PHYSICAL use will, simply because the world uses more than is produced and recovered. It's been one heck of an ongoing deficit and thus I believe there was one heck of a reserve to work through but the fact remains, the deficit continues and the supply grows precariously low.
Any thoughts?
Rich

Aristotle

(01/02/2003; 15:28:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93230)

The best justification behind colored currency -- ease of use

When hyperinflation takes over (and it will) and the government is, in phases, adding and then subtracting zeros to the growing flow of notes, it's easier to deal with the various classes of currency and their relative value by a color scheme. (The shifting numbers on otherwise all similarly greenish notes would boggle most brains.)

For example...

Series One:
1's; 5's; 20's and 100's would be Green, Blue, Orange and Red, respectively.

Series One -- additional functional issue:
1,000's; 5,000's; 20,000's; 100,000's would be Green, Blue, Orange and Red, respectively.

Series Two -- "New Dollar" issue:
1's; 5's; 20's and 100's would be Green, Blue, Orange and Red, respectively.

Bye bye to the traditionally "Western" thoughts on meaningful monetary savings. Say hello to the rising standard of global common sense -- a personal standard of physical Gold savings! Get a head start.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Aristotle

(01/02/2003; 15:30:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93231)

TC: "Deflation will be fought to the last tree"

Precious reality!

G. G y s. --- Ari

Hipplebeck

(01/02/2003; 15:35:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93232)

That new currency

I suspect we could be watching the blending of paper and electronics.
There is probably a strip that has an individual identity number on it imbedded in every new bill.
This combined with high speed reading machines at the banks and there can be a record of where every bill has been.
Theoretically, in electronic land, the database can record the movement of every dollar.
People trade in old dollars by a certain time to get new ones, and presto, chango, all dollars are electronic just like a debit or credit card.

makcumka

(01/02/2003; 15:37:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93233)

@ Ari

Thank you for the explanation.

The paper money in my wallet is indeed only a trace of the total electronic amount of dollars that is out there in existence. But my concern was of a different nature. A lot of those paper dollars are held by foreign citizens, mostly in underdeveloped countries, in paper form, as a savings instrument (primarily). As more and more greenbacks are printed and released into circulation, the visual effect alone (not taking into consideration the published figure of the paper money in circulation, which has been increasing at a pretty steady rate recently) may alarm these people who are relying on USD for stability. The paper assets can be manupulated, written off, hidden, etc. The cash that is printed out and stashed away can be brought out in a relatively short period of time, if a panic starts and everywhere around the globe the people rush the banks to exchange the dollars. The psycological event will be catastrophic and, I venture to guess, will destroy the US economy way fasted than JPM, Enron and WorldCom combined. So, if the outstanding US cash is manipulated to disappear under strict exchange policies (I mean, we all know that anyone holding more than $5000 USD in cash is a drug dealer or a counterfeiter anyway, right?), the paper dollar exposure could very well be taken care of. So the USD emerges in a new, colorful way, the small people of other countries have lost their savings, but since the savings were illegal in the first place, it is ok, everything in paper assets can be controlled without too much attention, and the US consumer has a stronger USD (since they don't have a cash stash, they don't get hurt) and can get some more credit because the dollar is again strong. Everything is peachy again.

Do you think this is possible, Ari?

Aristotle

(01/02/2003; 15:48:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93234)

Hipplebeck, call me skeptical

You suggested, "Theoretically, in electronic land, the database can record the movement of every dollar."

Think about this for a minute, please. You're talking about tracking every unit in an environment where some of our finest economic minds, Greenspan included, readily admit that it is no easy thing to define our money and money supply!! How you gonna track each unit item (comprising the cyber sea and its foam) of something as nebulous as that???

Easy out.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

makcumka

(01/02/2003; 15:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93235)

@ Ari

The best justification behind colored currency -- ease of useFrom the days of old USSR:

Not only the paper notes varied in color, they also varied in size, the bigger the bill, the bigger the piece of paper. Anyone can distinguish that, thus providing the "user-friendly" version of paper money. FWIW.

Hipplebeck

(01/02/2003; 15:57:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93236)

Ari

I did say theoretically.
Anyway, my point is that at this early stage, everytime a bill passes through any bank, there will be a record of it. In time, there might be a scan that takes place at the cash register of a store that records what that dollar bought.
There will always be cash traded back and forth between people, but there will be a better electronic trail that could be followed.
If things keep up the way they are going we are probably all going to end up barcoded.

Tevye

(01/02/2003; 16:16:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93237)

Fidelity and Vanguard Gold Funds

Last I looked, (a couple months back), Fidelity's Gold fund showed a large increase in cash on hand and cash was a significant percentage of the fund (~33% but I don't remember the actual numbers). So recent purchasers may have thought they bought gold stocks with Fidelity, but they really 'diluted' the fund. I expect Fidelity didn't buy stock because there was not enough available at an 'acceptable' price. If they do buy, it should push the market.
Vanguard, on the other hand closed their fund.

Anyone have more recent info?

Gold. It's (undiluted) Tradition
Tevye

sector

(01/02/2003; 16:23:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93238)

@ makcumka Here is a prelude to the "New" Currencies --Weaker yen may be cure to lead nation to fiscal health

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030103wo12.htmYomiuri Shinbum
Hiroshi Ota

Economists and politicians have been calling for measures to weaken the yen against the U.S. dollar to enhance the competitiveness of exports. Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa has repeatedly indicated that, in light of the purchasing power disparity between Japan and the United States, he would like to see the dollar, now about 120 yen, rising to about 150 yen.

With the administration of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi having been unable to stem the ever-worsening deflation, which may lead to a full-fledged financial crisis, the economy is enveloped in a sense of stalemate.

It is against this background that arguments have emerged in favor of weakening the yen by such means as the purchase of large quantities of foreign bonds by the Bank of Japan.

There are a number of examples in which countries have successfully bailed themselves out of dire economic straits by devaluating their currencies. A good example is the 1985 Plaza Accord, under which Japan, Germany and other countries cooperated to have the dollar quoted sharply lower to help the United States extricate itself from an economic crisis.
++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ahhhh! It's the Japanese devaluating thingy! And all this time we thought they were waging a "War on Deflation". Get ready for the "New" , "Improved" Japanese currency bills. Guaranteed to buy less than ever.

The goal of the "New" currencies [Already announced by Japan and the US] is to require redemptions that the authorities know won't get done for Billions because the old-to-new redemption requires cross-border actions, presentation of illicit booty [Without to requisite income forms and just plain forgetfulness. It is an opportunity to reduce the money stock and make a little headway when the new currency is devalued against gold.

The Fed once offered a new currency that had a timer in each bill. If one didn't "Move their money" after a set interval it "Expired".

The first Quarter of 2003 will see the implementation of the new currencies and the long-suspected devaluation. All under the cover of a shooting war in Iraq.

It is reasonable to imagine that the New currencies will be simultaneously implemented along side the New Fed gold policy...a policy that will guarantee the price of gold will rise AND the Fed will get to benefit from that gold price rise. The Maestro will wave his wand once again...seeming to make currency Lemonade out of fiat paper Lemons.

What a country.

Aristotle

(01/02/2003; 16:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93239)

makc-man

I sorta see where you're coming from, bu let me stress again that the volume of the cyber sea greatly ouweighs the foam. Domestically AND internationally. The amount of overseas forex dealings is HUGE, and its nearly all digital. This is what washes away coastlines, not the foam. Aaaahhhh.... but the butterfly's wings upon the foam may germinate the storm, yes?

I can't say yea or nay to that bit, but let me toss out this other for perspective to stand behind my earlier comment to you regarding the focus on the paper aspect being perhaps too little, too late during crunch time. One year ago in Argentina many well-to-do citizens held some foam, yes, but they had a great deal more of the cyber sea of U.S. dollars held in Argentine bank accounts -- as a supplement to their peso accounts. With no change, none at all, to our U.S. notes to "complicate" matters, these Argentine citizens none the less found themselves on the outside looking in. The Argentine govt effectively seized all the Dollar brand portions of the cyber sea that fell within its jurisdiction.

Granted, this was not a result of our U.S. Government pulling a fast on on everbody else through implementation of foreign exchange controls, but it does show you perhaps from where the force is likely always to be most compelling, erosive, and damaging -- the sea, not the foam or (the color of) the butterflies' wings upon it.

That's about all I can say. Sorry if it falls short of your mark.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Cavan Man

(01/02/2003; 16:54:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93240)

sector and all......

There's a red herring in your catch; it's called the EURO. As gold rises the EURO balance sheet (BALANCE SHEET--comprendez-vous) gets STRONGER. Conversely, the dollar weakens (absent the "dark arts"). How do you account for the EURO monetary "pair of dimes"? Boning up on Ben Hogan in the "stovepipe league".....CM

Cavan Man

(01/02/2003; 17:01:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93241)

They are saying....

"stocks jump on manufacturing surge"I am here to tell all of you as I am in the most BASIC of mfg. industries.....BUSINESS IS LOUSY. WE MAY BE A LITTLE BUSY BUT WE ARE MAKING VERY LITTLE MONEY. Profits are terrible! "Fixed cost review" is the order of the day. BTW, the company I work for was the most profitable in its' industry peer group.

davefinger

(01/02/2003; 17:03:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93242)

Teyve Re: Fidelity

I'm fairly sure I read somewhere that Fidelity isn't taking new business in their gold fund. This was about three months ago IIRC. My company just switched to Fidelity for our 401k, and the rep mentioned that they have some really obscene amount of 401k money that they manage, on the order of hundreds of billions. Of course the gold fund isn't on our 'list'. Makes sense though. Even a small percentage of the mass of money under their control moving into gold would seriously jeopardize the game.

silvercollector

(01/02/2003; 17:12:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93243)

Nice, nice finish

Goldcorp, Agnico and Meridian (proxies for physical) finished ultra-strong in the last 15/20 minutes.

A couple juniors finished well, some not so well.

We approach the time where we "separate the men from the rabbitts"!!

silvercollector

(01/02/2003; 17:23:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93244)

Cavan Man

Your post is bang on.

There was one of those monster mall complexes built down the road from me 3 years ago. I tell the kids it would be a 'great place to test a very small warhead'. Given today's enviroment that's not funny but I hope you catch my drift.

I watch it carefully for traffic and call it "the proxy for 'consumer spending'...". During the Christmas rush the traffic was luke warm, no where near the '98/'99/'00 freak show. Traffic has been linearly down since mid-2001. Anyways, the swarm tonight and since Boxing day has been unbelievable. Obvious to me that Christmas was postponed and this spells trouble for profits for the retailers.

Watch for Q402 revenues to be "okay" and Q103 profits to be "ugly".

Hope that re-inforces your post.

May your 2003 be golden.

Cavan Man

(01/02/2003; 17:28:22 MDT - Msg ID: 93245)

The Islamic Dinar

Malaysia was a trial balloon.....along comes the WAT to the Tigris and Euphrates neighborhood. Next up we have an Islamic Dinar movement gathering steam. IMHO, the ID will be the monetary no man's land where the currency war for POO will be fought. How many Dinars can the Euro buy? We shall soon see. (God Bless America)

R Powell

(01/02/2003; 17:29:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93246)

Sinclair VS Elliot Wavers

Jim Sinclair has challenged the prediction of the Elliot Wave followers. He has stated that he is confident the POG will rise above $400 before it sinks to the $200 level that the wave believers (typlified by Prechter) are still predicting. How confident?

He has invited anyone who wants to bet ($1,000) on which price is reached first. He says he's willing to take up to 1,000 bets or up to $100,000 total.
Perhaps this posturing or gambling isn't important news but I found it both amusing and entertaining.

So, if someone says... "Hey, Jim, put your money where your mouth is.." he can reply, "I already did!"

He also stated that he believes silver needs to rise above $4.85 and he has positioned buy orders there. Does anyone know how large an audience he commands? I wonder how much a man of his position buys when he decides to do so and how many of his subscription readers will follow? It's unusual for an analyst to get this specific in the general press. Usually, only paid subscribers get this information. This may be interesting.
Rich

R Powell

(01/02/2003; 17:33:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93247)

Math

Regarding Sinclair's offer and 1,000 bets of $1,000 totaling $100,000, I obviously have something wrong here. How about 100 bets of $1,000. Anyway, if you care to bet he says to contact him and he will forward to you the contract for the wager.

silvercollector

(01/02/2003; 17:41:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93248)

Jobless claims

Saw a post today where jobless claims were up after 2 weeks of turning down.

I anticipate jobless claims to turn up, how many managers who didn't have the heart to lay someone off just before Christmas now face the fact that they have to now.

Christian

(01/02/2003; 17:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93249)

New Currency Goal

The goal is to bring the underground economy into the above ground economy. Much of our economy from farm laborers, household help, factories, farmers, drug dealers, prostitution are forced into a barter transactions that exchanges goods for goods and off the books. Corn grower exchanging his corn for live beef, mexican farm laborers being paid with food, beer, housing, and a little cash, household help getting paid with room and board, factories paying labor with goods. Drug dealers will take just about anything that has value and a lot of prostitution is done for a roof over the head. Barter Exchanges are listed in every major city if you know where to look. The whole idea of a currency exchange is to get rid of the sitting cash that is not doing nothing and to bring the cash only deals out of the underground woodworks. A lot of households on food stamps, or medical aid of some kind are always looking for none reportable income. Many farmers milking 40 cows have no way of obtaining health insurance and no way to feed their families. They qualify for food stamps and medical aid as long as they can proof that the milk check does not cover the cost of producing that milk. Many dairy farmers will trade 2 or 3 cull cows for a springing heifer off the books, or trade a few cull cows for field work because the farmer can't afford to fix his tractor. The problem with real estate inflation is that the operator who has it paid has a windfall and the operator who has to borrow the money does so knowing he will be a slave for the rest of his life. If gold was a currency, real estate inflation can not happen like it can with fiat credit money. Over 40% of WalMart workers qualify for food stamps or medical aid. To increase your chance to stay employed at WalMart is not to accept any of their medical plans, be a part time worker, and never, never clock in over time.

mikal

(01/02/2003; 17:44:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93250)

Re: J. Sinclair

@R Powell- His information is provided as a public service, not to paid subscribers. The financialsense.com site also has other authors essays and of course Jim Puplava's excellent work, some of which IS subscription only.
Re: $4.85 -About a week ago he posted an essay where he changed that Ag resistance to $4.89. Dig around and you'll find it. I'm not posting everything he's ever written.

CoBra(too)

(01/02/2003; 17:45:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93251)

@ CM - Business is Lousy - and always was - someway!

Not only that ...But Shrub has promised to stimulate the economy and also plans to create new jobs.

Sounds like Mannah from heaven - though after being consumers of the last global resort and spending twice as much as all their NATO Allies in "Defense", roughly 400 Billion Dollars - where does it all come from?

... Well, of course, it must be Mannah from heaven.

Otherwise, I'm probably not wise enough to figure that one out. OK, you can loan some dough from medicare and even retirement funds - after all you haven't put in a dime anyway - oh don't tell me in funds, mutual or in another way ... and there may be no-one destitute enough to cry out loud and state foul - for now ... ?

... Well, the answer seems to be - as Bernanke and his co-conspirators see the future - print or the modern equivalent - create new Dollars at an ever accelerating rate. Pauperizing or socializing the fraud seems the way to go. A way all so called Western (ex-) industrialized have a way to go.

Is it fraud, or a way of life, we've been streamlined to accept? Fraud to the folks, who have bled for their meager retirement security and fraud to the generation paying for it - as the administration has already digested it. No, it's only delusion - and if you wanna accept it - it's your own fault! Or is it ... think again...

A real and true cure for the malaise the US Dollar has maneuvred itself into for the last century - or 300 million people vs. the rest of us 6 Billion peasants accepting forfeited paper forever ...

Do I know? - personally yes, as I go Gold! cb2

Goldrush

(01/02/2003; 17:46:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93252)

At a loss to explain numbers

Thursday January 2 6:53 PM EST

The latest forecastU.S. Factory Report Upbeat, Analysts Not Sure
By Victoria Thieberger

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing stepped out of the doldrums in December, expanding by a lot more than expected, but the improvement was at odds with other soft economic news recently, and didn't change expectations for a gradual recovery in 2003.

The group conducting the influential factory survey, the Institute for Supply Management, was at a loss to describe why the December report was so strong, noting that elements required to produce strong growth did not seem to be in place.

That said, the ISM index came in at 54.7 -- well above the 50.3 analysts expected and above last month's 49.2 -- and showed expansion for the first time in four months. In the survey, 50 marks the threshold between growth and contraction.

Other data were less upbeat. In keeping with the sluggish labor market, unemployment claims rose in the latest week, suggesting any improvement is still months away.

Economists, like ISM officials, were viewing the factory report with a healthy dose of skepticism.

"The striking thing is that strength in the (manufacturing) survey is against the background of an overall pretty disappointing economic environment," said Anthony Karydakis, senior financial economist at Banc One in Chicago.

"So is it really that manufacturing is leading the way in this recovery while we saw consumer spending and just about everything else falter in December? I'm not so sure," he said.

Though the report contributed in part to dramatic gains in stock prices and a sharp sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, Thursday was the first trading day of the year and dealers attributed the moves mainly to New Year portfolio shifts.

Economists say it's too soon to be sure the economy has emerged from the weak patch it's been mired in since late summer.

Consumer confidence remains relatively weak, and concerns surrounding a probable U.S. war with Iraq hardly point to a robust recovery. Confidence has fallen for six months out of seven, holiday retail sales were weak, and orders for long-lasting durable goods have yet to improve.

Figures on Thursday showed unemployment insurance claims rose by a surprisingly sharp 13,000 in the week ended Dec. 28 to 403,000, the latest figures to point to a stagnant job market. The jobless rate for December, due out next week, is expected to remain at an eight-year high of 6.0 percent.

In a concession to the struggling economy, President George W. Bush will unveil a stimulus package on Tuesday, which is expected to total up to $300 billion in tax breaks for businesses and individuals.

STILL STRUGGLING

Manufacturing activity accounts for about a fifth of the economy, but it has outsized importance because a large part of business investment in capital goods is related to factories. Economists have said a recovery in business spending is needed to put the economic expansion on firmer ground.

While manufacturing is expected to recover in the first half of 2003 from a slump late last year, economists believe it will be slow and won't be a big driver of the economy.

"Inventories are extraordinarily lean, so there is the potential for manufacturing to snap back a little bit," said James O'Sullivan, economist at UBS Warburg.

Markets reacted strongly to the upbeat data. After two weeks of gains, U.S. Treasuries prices were savaged and the 10-year bond yield suffered its biggest one-day increase in four years, while stocks rallied. The broad S&P 500 average jumped 3.3 percent to 909.03, helped by optimism about the new year.

And Eurodollar futures, a measure of interest rate expectations, fell sharply, implying the Federal Reserve may start raising interest rates in the second half of this year.

The ISM new orders index, a measure of future production, surged to 63.3 from 49.9 in November -- the largest one-month increase since August 1980.

"I think it's pretty clear the threat of a double-dip (recession) has faded considerably," O'Sullivan said.

Still the ISM cautioned that the fundamentals did not change dramatically in December.

"I don't think it's time to pronounce that manufacturing is ready to make a strong recovery. I don't think the drivers are there to be able to do that," Norbert Ore, director of the ISM survey, told reporters in a conference call.

The improvement in U.S. manufacturing stood in contrast to another disappointing report from factories in the euro zone, released earlier on Thursday. For the past year, the U.S. recovery has outpaced that of Europe, which is being weighed down by weakness in Germany, the region's biggest economy.

Manufacturing in the euro zone shrank for the fourth straight month in December, according to the Reuters Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index, which fell to 48.4 from 49.5.

A more resilient American consumer sustained last year's tentative recovery, with low interest rates fuelling purchases of cars and houses, the bright spots of the economy.

Homeowners, encouraged by historic low rates, made a year-end push to refinance their home loans and gain some financial relief. The Mortgage Bankers Association said refinancings rose by 10.9 percent in the week to Dec. 27.

Sierra Madre

(01/02/2003; 17:57:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93253)

Hmmmm.....hmmm, again......and more hmmmmm....

So the Japanese want to devalue the Yen. That's amusing. How do you devalue something that has no value? This is not just an idle question. It refers to a very real situation.

The present day world currencies are the bastard heirs of banknotes that in a more orderly and honest age, were promises to deliver a certain amount of gold (or silver, in the silver currency countries)

At that time, a currency could be devalued by changing the amount of gold or silver to be delivered upon the notes' redemption.

There was a common standard, a NUMERAIRE, in existence. All paper was representative of a certain amount of gold or silver.

No more. Only the form remains, the substance is absent.

"What a country" says Sector. I say, "What a world!" It is taking on the character of a real-life nightmare. Those smart bankers - greedy, avaricious moral cripples - thought that "Gold is dead. Gold is finished. The Central Banks actually don't WANT any gold." Their economist statists and planners, all intellectual prostitutes, gave them all the reasons. All the reaons were fallacious!

The Japanese are desperately trying to devalue their Yen, so that their industries can churn out more goods, which they will sell to the US consumers, in exchange for more papers, which are instrinsically worthless, and thus pile up more dollar balances of "I owe you nothings" as John Exter used to say. Madness, the world has gone mad.

The disconnect between paper money and gold, which finally came about in August 1971, has taken us into a world where there are no more limits, which is another way of saying, a world disconnected from reality. I think it would be correct to go further and say, "Since we are disconnected from reality, our world is essentially DEAD."

The "economists" and their media and journalist friends are groping in an irrational blackness, for answers, for solutions. There are none!

What we are going to witness in the next ten years, is something that Greek philosophers would appreciate in its awesome splendor: the collapse of a civilization.

Let's all look at this period objectively, rather like astronomers observing the collision of a monster asteroid into Mars. Of course, the problem is, the asteroid is coming our way, not towards Mars.

"See all, nor be afraid!
The best is yet to be,
The last of life, for which
The first was made."

We are able to observe the spectacle of Human Folly on a scale never before seen. Surely a privilege! Enjoy!

Sierra

Cavan Man

(01/02/2003; 18:00:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93254)

@CB(too)

Right church but wrong pew....you mean, "pennies, pennies from heaven."

makcumka

(01/02/2003; 18:01:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93255)

@ sector

Your words about an "expiring" currency reminded me of an old Russian joke:

To prevent anyone from getting rich, the government will issue new currency with a undisclosed percentage of uranium contained in the currency. As soon as one gathers enough money to reach the critical mass, he seizes to exist.

Cavan Man

(01/02/2003; 18:19:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93256)

My friends,

let us be attentive.....December should witness a rise in manufacturing. EVERYBODY SELLING ANYTHING RETAIL OR ENGAGED IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN THEREOF IS BUSY DURING THIS MONTH.

Goldrush

(01/02/2003; 18:22:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93257)

JPM will post a loss not gain 4th qtr

JP Morgan to Take $1.3 Billion in Charges
Thu January 02, 2003 03:10 PM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM.N said on Thursday it would take about $1.3 billion pretax in charges for litigation related to Enron Corp. ENRNQ.PK and the global research settlement announced late last month.

The No. 2 U.S. bank said it would establish a $900 million reserve for costs of various private litigation and regulatory inquiries involving Enron, including $80 million for the research settlement with state and federal authorities.

It said it would also take a pretax charge of $400 million in the fourth quarter as part of its settlement on Thursday of an Enron-related surety bond dispute with insurers.

The charges equate to 43 cents a share and mean the bank will post a loss in the fourth quarter, the bank's chief financial officer, Dina Dublon, told a conference call. J.P. Morgan had been expected to earn about 36 cents in the fourth quarter, according to market data firm Thomson First Call.

Goldrush

(01/02/2003; 18:23:24 MDT - Msg ID: 93258)

Home Depot falls 8% after hours

Home Depot Lowers Earnings Outlook
Thu January 02, 2003 07:49 PM ET
ATLANTA (Reuters) - Home Depot Inc. HD.N , the world's largest home-improvement retailer, on Thursday cut its earnings outlook for fiscal 2002, citing lower-than-expected holiday sales of power tools and hardware, and said it faced a "challenging environment" well into fiscal 2003.

The rare earnings warning from Home Depot, the world's second-largest retailer behind Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT.N , represented another black mark for the retail sector, which is coming off one of its bleakest holiday sales seasons.

Shares of Home Depot fell almost 8 percent in after-hours trade.

makcumka

(01/02/2003; 18:23:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93259)

@ Ari

Thanks again for providing your point of view on the "new" currency. It did not fall short of my mark.

Solomon Weaver

(01/02/2003; 18:44:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93260)

Note the gold related claims at the bottom of this article....brought for the purpose of educating the members of this forum at to the rumors aimed from the gold bug corner at JPM.

Morgan adds up Enron, other costs
Insurers to fork over $600 million in settlement

By Luisa Beltran & Greg Morcroft, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:41 PM ET Jan. 2, 2003

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- J.P. Morgan made its financial New Year's resolution Thursday, setting aside more than $1 billion to cover its settlement with insurers in an Enron-related suit and beefing up its kitty for future litigation and regulatory expenses.

CBS MARKETWATCH TOP NEWS
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Bush to detail economic plans next week
Rates fall again to lowest level since early '60s
J.P. Morgan Chase settles with insurers, to take charge

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The move will likely lead to a fourth-quarter loss at the nation's second-largest bank, but it is expected to help calm jittery investors and further strengthen the company's ability to maintain its oft-criticized dividend policy and attract more investors.

J.P. Morgan Chase looks likely to post a loss in the fourth quarter after taking a charge to settle Enron litigation and establishing a $900 million reserve to cover future litigation and regulatory expenses, the company said Thursday.

The current Thomson First Call estimate for the quarter is a profit of 36 cents per share, excluding special items.

Charges to eat Q4 earnings

"You shouldn't expect to have positive earnings for the quarter," Chief Financial Officer Dina Dublon told analysts on an afternoon conference call.

Analyst Richard Bove of Hoefer & Arnett said he now expects the bank to report a profit of 30 cents per share before charges for the fourth quarter but a loss of 13 cents after charges.

The powerhouse financial institution said it will take a pretax charge of about $400 million and also revealed plans for the $900 million pretax reserve. On an after-tax basis, these items equal $860 million.

"Excluding these items, fourth-quarter results are seen in the range of consensus," Dublon said.

Bove said operating earnings for the first quarter of 2003 are expected to jump back to 50 cents per share and to hit 65 cents by the fourth quarter of next year.

"People don't care what happened in [2002's] fourth quarter," Bove said. "They care where the company is going in coming months. The expectation is that EPS will be substantially higher."

"This means that J.P. Morgan's dividend is well-protected," he added. Based on Tuesday's closing price, the stock's dividend works out to a yield of 5.75 percent.

Shares of J.P. Morgan Chase, a Dow industrials component, surged 6 percent to close at $25.44 Thursday.

"Technically speaking, JPM has spent the past two years in a steady downtrend defined by lower highs and lower lows. The equity may potentially be on its way to achieving a lower high," options tracker Bernie Schaeffer said in his daily options commentary.

"Options players are quite optimistic on JPM shares despite its hazy technical picture," Schaeffer added.

Further boosting the firm's prospects, Moody's Investors Service reiterated its rating "A1" on J.P. Morgan's credit following the settlement news.

Moody's said the risks related to bonds were already incorporated in its ratings and added that J.P. Morgan continues to generate a "substantial and diversified stream of income" with which to absorb such costs.

Closing a chapter

News of the charge and the reserve came hours after the bank disclosed that it had reached a settlement with a group of 11 insurers in its bid to recover $1 billion from the companies regarding Enron surety bonds.

Terms of the agreement call for the insurers to pay about 60 percent of the amount of surety bonds the insurers wrote.

"The settlement represents us being on the right side of the deal, and represents the risk of going the whole way on the litigation," J.P. Morgan Chase Chief Executive William Harrison said on the conference call.

Travelers Property Casualty (TAPA: news, chart, profile) (TAPB: news, chart, profile) confirmed that it would pay about $139 million under the pact.

Liberty Mutual has signed on to the settlement. The insurer has agreed to pay less than $12 million to resolve litigation with J.P. Morgan, the insurer said in a statement.

In December, J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: news, chart, profile) began battling 11 insurers, including Chubb (CB: news, chart, profile) and St. Paul Cos.' (SPC: news, chart, profile) St. Paul Fire & Marine Insurance Co., in court to recover about $1 billion. The insurers had issued surety bonds that guaranteed commodity deals between Enron and a J.P. Morgan-related entity, Mahonia Ltd. See story.

But once Enron went bankrupt in December 2001, the insurers refused to pay the bonds, claiming the deals were really loans between J.P. Morgan Chase and Enron, not commodity transactions.

Bank executives added that the $900 million reserve included likely costs for lawsuits involving non-Enron-related liabilities, like litigation involving WorldCom and other firms with which the company did business.

"These various cases will be resolved little by little over about four years," J.P. Morgan Chase general counsel William McDavid said on the conference call.

In November, Dublon told CBS.MarketWatch.com that she expected a resolution of the Enron case by late December or early January. If J.P. Morgan Chase lost the case, the bank would likely take a charge to income and not boost reserves, Dublon had said.

More outlook for the fourth quarter

Dublon and the others on Thursday's conference call said that despite the charge and reserve, the company's fourth-quarter performance showed some positive signs, particularly a strengthening in revenues as trading business picked up.

"Revenues are probably quite a bit higher than estimates, but expenses are higher than expected due to severance costs," Dublon told listeners.

She said overall charges will be higher than the $300 million that J.P. Morgan Chase predicted earlier for its investment-banking operations.

Vice Chairman Marc Shapiro told investors and analysts that the firm's credit quality had not changed much since the end of the third quarter.

"Telecom is playing out as anticipated," Shapiro said, referring to another area of troubled loans for the financial industry.

"Merchant energy is the sector most likely to be hurt by any drop in credit quality," he said.

Shapiro also said the company would maintain its 34-cent-per-share quarterly dividend payment -- a policy that's been criticized in the past even as it has been staunchly defended by the bank's management.

In a footnote, the executives said that, despite persistent rumors to the contrary, it has no exposure to the recent run-up in gold prices.

"We don't have any real exposure to gold. I don't know where that rumor keeps coming from, but it's not true," CEO Harrison said.

"We have seen this rumor pop up again and again," added chief counsel McDavid, "and we have asked the SEC to look into it."

Luisa Beltran is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in New York.
Greg Morcroft is New York news editor of CBS.MarketWatch.com.

Cavan Man

(01/02/2003; 18:58:22 MDT - Msg ID: 93261)

POS

THE CEO SAYS JPM HAS NO EXPOSURE TO GOLD???????????

Either there are some really significant problems in the pipeline or, some of our brethren are way off base.

However, I do think it is a documented fact that JPM/Chase is the single largest player in gold derivatives. Perhaps Mr. Harrison was referring to the (metal) gold and not the (paper) gold. Reminds me of the definition of sex in the 90's.

Goldrush

(01/02/2003; 18:59:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93262)

UK Guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-2290035,00.htmlDuring his breakfast with Silva, Chavez also brought up the idea of increasing cooperation among Latin American state-owned oil industries and set up a company called Petro-America.

``It would become a sort of Latin American OPEC,'' Chavez said. ``It would start with Venezuela's PDVSA and Brazil's Petrobras,'' and could come to include Ecopetrol from Colombia, PetroEcuador from Ecuador, and PetroTrinidad from Trinidad and Tobago.''
__________
JPM recommends buying gold on dips. Other than that its a
sleazy company. It guided Enron on making phoney accounts.

Cavan Man

(01/02/2003; 19:15:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93263)

JPM

Pretty incredible or not?"We don't have any real exposure to gold. I don't know where that rumor keeps coming from, but it's not true," CEO Harrison said.

mikal

(01/02/2003; 19:16:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93264)

Cavan Man, Solomon Weaver Re:Derivatives "mirage"

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/cook010303.htmlDIRT POOR by James Cook -Excerpts-
.....Barrick would take advantage of a bear market in gold to acquire other properties at distress prices. Nice friendly Banksters were able to offer considerable assistance. Through the alchemy of derivatives, hedging, and forward sales the Banksters were able to offer Barrick quite a deal: no downside risk in the event that gold were to rise.
What's this. No risk? No such beast. Someone was taking the risk. With Big Daddy Bush on the Board, the operations and policies of the Exchange Stabilization Fund could be telegraphed to Barrick. Essentially, Barrick and the Banksters could front run the Treasury. After all, bond traders do it all the time. An honored tradition. Over the years Barrick grew to be the world's premier gold miner, with a hedge fund bolted to the side. A hedge fund with an edge.
As the years went by, a second administration found a use for this edge. Any one remember Clinton's temper tantrums over not being able to control long rates? Well, Larry Summers to the rescue. His understanding of Gibson's paradox set the stage for a manipulation of biblical proportions: By suppressing the price of gold, you can suppress long term interest rates.....
Thus began a new period in economic history. A period where the Exchange Stabilization Fund facilitated the long peg on a bewildering array of gold swaps, gold leases, forward sales and unfathomable derivatives schemes. Spreading beyond Barrick, the entire industry has become caught up is a web of structured finance that could only be created during a financial mania, and can only be unwound during a deflation. The Treasury has recharacterized its gold reserves more than once. Only the naive believe that the type of fraud demonstrated by our corporate elites has not infiltrated the federal monetary system. The insanity began when the historic relationship between stock and bond prices was violated in 1996. Sobriety will return when historic reality returns to this primal relationship.
One by one, the party go-ers are sobering up. Austrian concepts are being considered. Mr. Market has been discounting hedged mining companies. Sir Alan has been emphatic about netting legislation before Congress. The Federal Reserve discussed buying gold mines after 9/11. The Russians have circulated the gold Ruble, the Chinese have liberalized the gold market, and the Islamic Dinar is about to launch. Lawsuits have been filed, first by altruists, now by commercial interests. Dollar devaluation was the consensus at Jackson Hole this year. Keynesian ideas are being dissed by Fed governors. Monetization of debt has become policy. Gold and its shares are breaking out.
And Greenspan, the closet gold bug, appears to be coming out.
Clearly, the Fed has been laying the groundwork to deal with a systemic monetary or currency crises for at least a year. While many do not give them credit, they clearly understand the problem at hand. After all, they have been party to the problem.
So, the Fed has panicked, and adopted essentially the monetarist economic philosophy of Milton Friedman by accepting blame for the last depression. The Keynesians are all a tether, having lost their perceived exclusivity over policy formulation.
The tiny minority of Austrian economists just sit back and smile. Those who follow their advice are currently counting their coin.
.....So what's a simple debt slave to do? My conclusion is that you must become your own central banker, and front run our monetary authorities. Sound complicated? Not really.
Unwind your structured finance position. Buy nothing on margin. Pay off your credit cards and debt.....
So build your gold reserves. Central banks are becoming net buyers of physical gold.....
A pull back in the gold price appears imminent and may offer immediate opportunity. The commercial short position is obscene. I thought that yesterdays spike down in gold price might be the beginning of an aggressive push to get the price down to levels where this position can be covered with less pain. But it is possible that the commercials are trapped. That the short position can't be covered, and that it will ultimately be "netted out" in a mysterious closed door process that leaves the major commercial producers owned by the central bankers, and the treasury's coffers of "deep storage gold" filled to the brim: The confiscation this time will most likely be of the hedged producers and na�ve explorers.....End snippits
January 3, 2003

sector

(01/02/2003; 19:21:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93265)

@CavenMan The Euro is backed by a little gold but...

...how much of that gold has already been sold and/or swapped?The central banks are light ...to the tune of 16,000 tonnes of gold so the Euro's gilded edge is also a tad light. The G-10 would like everybody to think there's a competition between the dollar and the Euro but there really isn't. There is a skillful devaluation vs. gold in the works that involves all the major currencies. Except maybe the Yuan. The Chinese don't seem to be playing by Marquis of Queensbury Rules. No surprise there...then there's their pals the "We ain't got no stinkin Nukes!" North Koreans. The Chinese will do only what is in their best interest. The G-10 will learn a hard 24 carat lesson from that.

All the talk of deflation wars, the new currencies and the Fed's mouthpieces themselves are the clue. It's like the buildup to December 7th 1941. Just about everybody behind the scenes knows it's coming.

Housing and its satellite boutique businesses are OK, but only for now. The day after the deval--housing dies because key interest rates will be automatically adjusted higher. Greenspan will try to mandate a result, like a tethered gas-powered model airplane, he will pull the Fed policy strings to make the little plane go up. What he fails to see is that the strings are slack and all the pulling in the world won't work. He will be forced to watch as a spectator while gold takes command.

Bill Murphy's has been rightly pounding the table that this gold bullish market remains a tightly coiled spring...one just can't predict the hour of it's release therefore one must be all in for the long haul.

Sinclair can trade nimbly because he's the best trader on Earth but the normal mortal would likely get crushed by volatility.
++++++++++++++++++

BTW Hogan's cupped wrist tip is right up there. It's hard to do because it feels so weird but the harder you swing the straighter it goes. Butch Harmon uses it. Love the back right foot too.

mikal

(01/02/2003; 19:28:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93266)

Correction to author name

DIRT POOR is by Rodney Cook, not James Cook.

sector

(01/02/2003; 19:35:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93267)

@CavebMan JPM and their "Non-Exposure" to Gold

Nothing is confirmed until it is officially denied......AND they have contacted the Securities and Exchange Commission about all the [Damaging ] rumors.

My My! Imagine THAT. Chairman Harrison in a hissey fit over the WILD RUMORS of trouble in their $45 Billion gold derivatives short book now that gold is rising. Part of a $23 Trillion derivative book that was built by getting special pricing of 10X lower than their competitors...according to their Annual Report.

Mr H is going to the SEC and give Mr. Donaldson [Formerly Donaldson Lufkin, Jenrette] a piece of his mind! THAT will get RESULTS! "We have never lose a dime in gold".

If one never has to buy out of a short one never loses. Since the Treasury has backed the gold shorts that is probably true but they can't prove it without blowing the whole scam.

Kind of like The "Godfather's" Corleones not being able to "Go to the cops" when competitors horn in on their prostitution racket.

"Buy JPM...SOON to have less than $29 Billion in Enron litigation expenses".

silvercollector

(01/02/2003; 19:38:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93268)

Just received this email

To my investment friends:

Check out this .PPT to understand why stock markets hit highs in 2000 and understand why markets have lost money for 3 years.

Follow the link:

http://prudentbear.com/

and click on "Why the bear market is not over"

Gold Standard

(01/02/2003; 19:42:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93269)

Sector - your #93265

In your recent post, you said:-

"There is a skillful devaluation vs. gold in the works that involves all the major currencies. Except maybe the Yuan. The Chinese don't seem to be playing by Marquis of Queensbury Rules."

As far as I know, the Yuan is pegged to the USD on an 8:1 ratio. This is competitive devaluation at its finest, because no matter how low the USD goes, the price of imports from the PRC doesn't change.

Regards, GS

silvercollector

(01/02/2003; 19:45:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93270)

From the world of bizarre (Banker JPM) to the real world (Edward Scherrer is president of Peoples State Bank, Augusta, WI.)

http://prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=19039-snip-

Edward Scherrer is president of Peoples State Bank, Augusta, WI.

I'm a small town banker and perhaps don't understand all the nuances of the national credit markets. But from where I sit, this economic recovery is extremely fragile, driven by excessive growth in consumer debt and likely to fail.

cyberbat

(01/02/2003; 19:47:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93271)

@Black Blade

Do you think that the PPT can throw an endless supply of dollars to keep gold (a dwindeling commodity) down forever ?
If not , why not. The Euro and gold were down today which is a complete reversal. Treasuries were going crazy. I can't figure out what's going on anymore.
Cyberbat

Goldrush

(01/02/2003; 19:52:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93272)

Dollar still under pressure

Hong Kong, Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar snapped a rally from yesterday and may fall on concern a U.S.-led war with Iraq would make international investors keep their money at home.

The U.S. currency started the day with a gain, after a report yesterday showing a surge in manufacturing sent it to its biggest rally versus the euro since August. It slid back as non-U.S. investors said a possible war is still reason to shun the dollar.

The dollar traded at 119.86 yen at 10:06 a.m. in Hong Kong from 120.08 late yesterday in New York. It hovered at $1.0378 against the euro from $1.0362. The U.S. currency had its biggest gain yesterday versus the euro since Aug. 22. Trading may be less than usual because Japanese financial markets are closed for a holiday.

``The bearish trend for the dollar hasn't changed,'' said Noriyoshi Tsunoda, assistant general manager of the treasury department at Mizuho Corporate Bank in Taipei. ``The geopolitical risk is still there, while the economic outlook hasn't changed much.'' The dollar may fall toward 118 in coming days, he said.

silvercollector

(01/02/2003; 19:54:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93273)

Last post is a ABSOLUTE MUST read...

...if the president has called it quits, well, make your own conclusions.

Gold. Get yourself lots.

silvercollector

(01/02/2003; 19:56:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93274)

This one!!!!

http://prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=19039

(01/02/2003; 20:07:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93275)

COOK UNABRIDGED: THE PART ON FED BUILDING GOLD RESERVES

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/cook010303.htmlCOOK UNABRIDGED: THE PART ON FED BUILDING GOLD RESERVES

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/cook010303.html

It is important to read the part omitted from Rodney Cook's

essay by msg#: 93264:
----------------
...The tiny minority of Austrian economists just sit back and smile. Those
who follow their advice are currently counting their coin.

WHAT IS THE FED TO DO? AT THIS POINT, THEY SHOULD BUILD

THEIR GOLD RESERVES. IF THEY ARE HYPOTHECATED WITH SOME

MYSTERIOUS INSTRUMENT OF STRUCTERED FINANCE, THE POSITIONS

SHOULD BE UNWOUND. IF THE GOLD IS GONE, LAY PLANS FOR

CONFISCATION.

ALL APPEAR TO BE IN THE WORKS.

PERSONAL CENTRAL BANKING

So what's a simple debt slave to do? ...............

---------------------

Comment: Confiscation would not be necessary. The Fed
can buy gold from the following sources.

Also see the Julian Phillips Essay:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/cook010303.html

From ax msg# 93207 ( see excerpts below)

ax (1/2/03; 10:55:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 93207)

How the U.S. Treasury can Acquire Gold?

..I also refer you to the essay of Julian Phillips on the subject

of gold and the central banks which I read last night. It has a

very important analysis of how Alan Greenspan may now be viewing

gold in the financial system, and many other valid points as well

as crucial statistics on central bank reserves. I recommend this

reading very highly.

Yours is a legitimate question - how the U.S. Treasury can Acquire

Gold

First of all, 8k tons is the desired figure - as a start, the amount can

be substantially less. It can be acquired in increments as small as

one ton. There are many sources for such supplies:

1. the Domestic Mines - those mines which are physically located

within the United States, which employ labor within the United

States

2. The supplies of Central Banks that have indicated their willingness

to sell. Certainly this includes Switzerland which is selling now.

This might include Germany, depending how you interpret the

remarks of their officials. When I first started recommending

purchases of gold by the U.S. Treasury in early 1999, it would have

definitely included England.

3. The physical and future gold market - London, New York, Asia

4. Gold bullion dealers within the United States - large and small,

who now offer gold bullion to the general public. They can just

as easily, and gladly so I imagine, sell to the U.S. Treasury, just

as Lockheed -Martin sells fighter jets to the U.S. Dept of Defense

For the reasons discussed in the Jan 1 2003 posts and earlier posts

the U.S. Treasury needs more gold backing for its currency. This

can be done incrementally - in one ton segments. Naturally the price

might adjust upwards; however, it will be a bargain in that so much

more issued currency and debt can now have a much more solid

backing - the solid backing of physical gold. This will allow the USD

to maintain its role as the world's reference and reserve currency -

stable and secure.

Goldrush

(01/02/2003; 20:10:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93276)

JPM not out of the woods yet

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?guid=%7B23864C47-C988-40EC-9611-99A5B16F2B98%7D&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahooProbe sought on Enron-like deals
Senate panel questions structured finance pacts
By Matt Andrejczak, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 6:09 PM ET Jan. 2, 2003

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- A congressional panel on Thursday urged financial regulators to conduct a sweeping review of all U.S. banks and Wall Street firms for complex financial transactions similar to those allegedly used to help Enron pad profits.

The Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations claims J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: news, chart, profile), Citigroup (C: news, chart, profile) and Merrill Lynch (MER: news, chart, profile) designed and profited from structured finance transactions with Enron that used deceptive accounting and tax strategies.

"It is not acceptable for our banks or securities firms to help any public company mislead investors or analysts through deceptive transactions," said Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., outgoing chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.

The subcommittee highlighted the multi-million dollar deals at separate congressional hearings last year. The firms denied the allegations that they knowingly aided Enron's deception.

On Thursday, the panel released its second report describing the role of U.S. financial institutions in Enron's collapse. Read report.

Meantime, J.P. Morgan settled with 11 insurers over an entity it created to do business with Enron. See full story.

The report called on the Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to launch a joint review of banks and securities firms using structured finance deals with U.S. public companies and tighten rules on what is legal.

Rich Spillenkothen, director of the Fed's division of Banking Supervision and Regulation, told the subcommittee in mid-December that the agency is expected to complete its own review of structured finance transactions in a few months.

According to the subcommittee, there is a gap in regulatory oversight because the SEC does not regulate banks and the Fed does not oversee accounting practices policed by the SEC.
__________
We might yet find out more about JPM dealings.
Silvercollector_great article

Goldrush

(01/02/2003; 20:24:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93277)

A CHART OF THE S&P 500 P/E RATIOS OVER 75 YEARS

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/jmiller092402pv.htmlMarket still looks very overvalued by historical standards.

knotakare

(01/02/2003; 20:25:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93278)

Bravo Sierra!

Your comments today and the "Dirt Poor" article on another favorite gold website are surely classics. The comments today that JPM has no position in the paper gold markets (derivatives), is proof positive that we are indeed dealing with a suspension of rational knowing. Of course they did not use these words, but that is what they directly implied.

We now see the entire western world's economic and political systems operating on the greator fool theory, as so we must watch the destroyers perform their craft.

happy new year to all!

sector

(01/02/2003; 20:45:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93279)

@Gold Standard You are Quite Correct Sir...

...regarding the Yuan/Dollar Link......my comments concern the not-so-behind-the-scenes efforts to get the Chinese to break this link and upwardly revalue the Yuan.

We need that to occur in order to raise the price of Chinese goods and the Chinese have so far told the Fed to "Pack Sand".

Thus, the non-cooperation between the Chinese and the US isn't helping matters much for the Fed.

It gets worse. IF the Chinese revalue upwards they can buy even more gold.

IF the Japanese devalue the yen back towards 133 the elders there can crush the gold cartel all by them selves with only 10% of their ready cash. The elders have $620 Billion in fungible deposits [Not real estate] and cash. They can suck every last ounce of gold away from the G-10 in a heart-beat.

So we sit and watch while the big pod of Killer Whale speculators tear out huge chunks of flesh from the giant Blue Whale that is the hapless G-10.

The CoinGuy

(01/02/2003; 21:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93280)

Kuwaitis Withdraw Capital From US Markets

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/01/01/wirq301.xml/
Snippit:

Kuwaitis, faced with the threat of war against Iraq, are withdrawing hundreds of millions of dollars from America to invest at home.

Comment: Another lifeboat sails into the night from the USS DOLLAR...

The CoinGuy

Black Blade

(01/02/2003; 21:47:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93281)

Re: cyberbat, tevye, and davefinger

Cyberbat � I'm not exactly sure what you mean as far as the PPT throwing endless dollars against gold. If you mean does the "President's Working Group on Financial Markets" (also know as the Plunge Protection Team) "manage" the Gold market then I would say that I doubt they do. The PPT is a coordinated effort by members of the government economic specialists (and presumably includes members of the Federal Reserve and Treasury) and those tied to Wall Street investment banks to "manage" the financial markets. I take this to mean the equities and possibly the bond markets. We know this group exists as outlined by executive order and are allowed to do intervene in these markets as it is a matter of public record. The Gold market in my opinion is more likely "managed" (for lack of a better term) by individual Central Banks, Investment Banks and Funds (and possibly mega-hedged producers) as a matter of survival or promoting the illusion of "no inflation". I am not completely convinced that there is a coordinated "cabal" working to cap the price of Gold, but rather there are many institutions that have backed themselves into a corner with the "Gold Carry Trade" and are now desperate to stop or at least slow the advance of a rising gold price having leased out several thousand tons of Gold. With so many people involved it would stand to reason that if this were a coordinated "conspiracy" among literally dozens of institutions involving hundreds and possibly thousands of people, some one would have blown the whistle (or have written a book after having been laid off/fired). That said, there are many deep pockets on Wall and Broad streets (and around the world) and a Federal Reserve ready and willing to bail out any institution that finds itself with their "tit caught in the wringer". Remember Long Term Capital Management? Recent comments by Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke among others about having the power of the printing press to save the day should also provide fuel for such concerns in the Gold Market (and commodities in general). As it is these institutions are losing their grip on the Gold market as opposing interests (speculators, Funds, some other Banks, the public, etc.) are likely to overwhelm any institution(s) attempting to "manage" the market as economic conditions deteriorate. The more the Fed prints dollars the more likely the threat of inflation that will drive ever more interests toward Gold. So throwing endless dollar to keep Gold down is a self defeating game plan. Anyway that's my take on it.

Tevye and davefinger � If you are referring to the Fidelity Select Gold Fund (FSAGX), the answer may lie in the fact that the Fund manager (I don't recall his name off hand) sold off hedged miners and went nearly all out for non-hedgers. You won't find Barrick, Placer Dome, AngloGold, etc. in the portfolio anymore. The Select Funds routinely rotate young managers as a course of gaining experience (though they are supervised by a team of in house managers). On occasion former or experienced managers are brought in to give a helping hand. There were two funds with a focus on the precious metals and they were combined a couple of years ago into what is now the Select Gold Fund. I still have old IRA investments in this and the Pilgrim Gold Fund (formerly the Lexington Gold Fund combined with the Lexington Strategic Silver Fund).

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/02/2003; 21:58:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93282)

Suspects in missionaries' killings are members of cell planning more attacks

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2003-01-02-yemen-suspects_x.htm
Snippit:

SAN'A, Yemen (AP) � Two Islamic militants accused in the slaying of three American Christian missionaries and a leftist Yemeni politician had also planned attacks on journalists, other foreigners and prominent Yemeni politicians, security officials said Thursday. Investigators have compiled a list of eight targets after interrogating the two men, Ali al-Jarallah and Abed Abdul Razak Kamel, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Investigators believe the two are part of a larger cell planning attacks. The officials did not give the full list of alleged targets nor name anyone believed included in the hit list. But they said the targets included a guest house used by Ismaili Muslims in San'a. Some Sunni Muslim extremists consider Ismailism � a form of the Shiite branch of Islam � heretical.

Black Blade: There are likely to many more terrorist attacks around the world against western targets and those not part of the Wahabbi Islamic sect by Islamists as preparations for war picks up and more troops land on the Arabian Peninsula.

Privateer

(01/02/2003; 22:10:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93283)

Libor Gold Lease Rates

http://www.lbma.org.uk/statistics_current.htmI am somewhat surprised that no-one seems to have noticed the CRASH DIVE taken in Libor one year Gold lease rates on the first trading day of 2003, January 2

On Tuesday, December 31, the one year lease rate closed at 0.732%. On the next trading day, Thursday, January 2, it closed at 0.508%. This is a fall of 0.224% in one trading day. Much more to the point, the Libor one year Gold lease rate fell almost one-third (30.6%) of the way to ZERO on January 2.

DummyANI

(01/02/2003; 22:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93284)

��Privateer (01/02/03; 22:10:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 93283)

Your�@Mistake�I
One year Gold lease rates on the first trading day of 2003, January 2 is 0.950%.
Libor rate on the first trading day of 2003, January 2 is 1.458%.
Libor minus One year Gold lease rates equals 0.508%.
Lease rate is up 0.218%, very few physical Gold.

D-ANI

Carl H

(01/02/2003; 23:11:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93285)

R Powell: Silver

Your post deserves a better response than I am capabable of writing at this hour. I will try tomorrow.

Chris Powell

(01/02/2003; 23:16:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93286)

Morgan wants to know where the gold 'rumor' is coming from

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1363Morgan Chase denies "any real exposure" to gold.
Maybe they're telling the truth -- as in half-truth.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1363

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Topaz

(01/02/2003; 23:28:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93287)

Renny, Goldrush.

Renny,
I'm in a similar situation to you...and learning every day. You know, we are blessed in that our Physical holdings are such that their "bulk" does not require "outside involvement" in the form of "vested interest" participation in management...depositories and the like. They qualify as possessions....good ain't it?
ski's point was a good one. "Don't mix your Piles"
Goldrush,
Full bowl of Cereal here Gr...someone else can worry about the Box!
Cheers.

melda laure

(01/02/2003; 23:30:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93288)

JPM no exposure to gold

depends on what the definition of NO is.They have "no" exposure like they had no exposure to Enron... that is until one of their "counterparties" decided that they would um er "default".... as in "WE'RE the victims of insurance FRAUD".

Today they have no exposure.

But who are the counterparties?

Have their deals been fully marked to market? That is to say, have their sugar daddies seen the bill to come? That's the real hard question. Visions of mbia's CDO portfolio come to mind.

"Put all the rats in one trap, said Gandalf".. a little quarantine operation.

Topaz

(01/02/2003; 23:52:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93289)

Cavan Man re: Islamic Dinar/Dirham

The whole point of their approach CM is the establishment of a trading medium untethered.
You or I can produce Dinar/Dirham....and as our reputation for quality "as specified" grows, our coins will increase in circulation.
They don't envisage a convertability with Fiat...other than Au/Ag content.

How this will work in practice is beyond my feeble mind.

Usul

(01/03/2003; 01:17:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93290)

Few car bargains in New Year

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/business/2621743.stm"Tighter margins and falling manufacturer bonuses for dealers, following record sales last year..."

Will this also be seen in the US?

Usul

(01/03/2003; 01:37:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93291)

http://channels.netscape.com/ns/news/story.jsp?floc=FF-PLS-PLS&id=01022308000258529&dt=20030102230800&w=RTR&coview=

CNBC catches 'flu from Wall Street44% drop? Just the beginning. Bubble-Vision is a phenomenon of a bubble market.

Usul

(01/03/2003; 01:41:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93292)

Spike in price of oil

http://www.iht.com/articles/82106.htmlThey spin it as a "spike", as though it MUST come down again, and without much delay. Yet the outcome of potential massive international conflict with side issues such as Venezuela is far from certain.

Goldrush

(01/03/2003; 01:52:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93293)

Oil marches higher

Oil Tops $32 As U.S. Supplies Fall, Winter Sets In
By Tanya Pang

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices marched higher on Friday over concerns the Venezuelan strike will erode U.S. fuel stockpiles for the next few weeks, as weather forecasters predicted a bitter Arctic blast will soon chill U.S. shores.

The ongoing war of words between Iraq and Washington, as President George W. Bush considers a military strike on Baghdad, also kept oil prices on the boil because any halt to Iraq's two million barrels of daily exports could tighten supplies further.

U.S. light crude traded up 25 cents to $32.10 a barrel at 0500 GMT, extending Thursday's 65-cent jump.

Oil's strong performance at the start of the year came as data showed U.S. crude inventories slipping close to 26-year lows due to the opposition-led strike in Venezuela that has cut petroleum exports to little more than a trickle.

"There's several reasons why you would want to be long in this market at the moment, not least Venezuela and Iraq," said a broker in London.

"We can safely say that even if the strike ends soon, there's no extra oil (that is) going to get to the U.S. in the short term, so stocks are going to fall next week and probably for two weeks after that," he said.

Venezuela usually supplies about 13 percent of U.S. oil imports, but its international sales virtually ground to a halt in December due to the strike aimed at ousting President Hugo Chavez.

Industry data this week showed U.S. crude inventories tumbling by more than nine million barrels, as the world's biggest energy consumer heads into winter's coldest months.

Meteorologists at Salomon Smith Barney predicted on Thursday a big wave of Arctic air would blanket large parts of the United States in the second week of January, which could bring the lowest temperatures so far this winter.

Brokers said a strong price for March U.S. crude futures, which covers barrels for delivery in February, was also an indication the market was expecting tight U.S. supplies.

March crude at $31.38 a barrel is more than $2.80 over the equivalent Brent contract on London's International Petroleum Exchange, which should entice traders to ship crude from Europe to the United States.

The OPEC producers' cartel has pledged to plug any supply gaps created by the Venezuela strike, but Middle East crude takes up to six weeks to reach the United States compared with five days from Venezuela.

"There is a big lag in shipping times and therefore the prospect of OPEC barrels is more emotional rather than practical at this stage," said independent oil analyst Simon Games-Thomas in a daily report.
________
Rally today was on light volume. CRB going up.
With rising energy prices, what is wall street thinkin?

Black Blade

(01/03/2003; 02:16:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93294)

Hey, I'm "Scathing"

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256CA200789697?OpenDocument
Snippit:

�Black Blade� was scathing: "Given his attitude toward Gold and those who invest in Gold, why does he waste his time hanging around?"

Black Blade: This was in response to a recent article about gold perma-bear Andy Smith. Personally I think this quite humorous as the remark was in regard to how Andy Smith derides gold and gold investors (sorta like Tim Wood). I merely pointed out that if Andy was so unhappy with the subject of Gold and those who invest in the metal, then why does he not seek employment in a field that would give him greater fulfillment and feelings of self worth. That is unless he gets his jollies ridiculing PM investors who after all create a market that provide him with employment. Personally I think that Andy and Tim just try to provoke PM investors to "get a rise" out of people. If I want to be "scathing" I certainly could, but I thought that I was on "good behavior" � ya know, my usual warm fuzzy cuddly self. Hmmm�

Nahhhh! ;-)

Goldrush

(01/03/2003; 02:26:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93295)

You are scathing!

When you get on those-> pimps and trolls of wall street-LOL

Belgian

(01/03/2003; 02:48:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93296)

Connecting some dots....(Goldrush # 93262)

South American leftists, realizing that "their" oil is prized (not valued) by someone else : the dollar ! Yes, a growing oil-value-consciousness, around the entire globe !
No other forum, but this one-through our mentors, is stressing on the (historical) relationship between the US$ and oil.

When Tarek Aziz (Iraq), received a Spanish delegation of peace-activists, he stressed again, in unmistakable terms, that the dollar is after Iraq's (total ME) oil.

How many regimes must be replaced as to keep the dollar an oil-currency ? For how long can the globe be forced to see everything through dollar-glases and live and die as a dollar-derivative ?

Let us not forget that China is already a big importer of oil and that its internal growth is only possible wit an abundant flow of cheap, payable oil ! Is the North Korean pressure used (builded) as to lift a warning finger to those who seek to control oil as the sole instrument for future growth ? Note that South Korean mediators go to China for talks and not to the US !

If South America (AND RUSSIA) should be able to jump on the ME-oil-war...
the dollar is in much more *deep* trouble than originally calculated from the euro-challenge alone.

To minimalize attention to "oil", the word *WMD* MUST be expressed a thousand times a day. The oil-problem will NOT go away before oil manages to receive Another currency or wealth ! A very long war indeed.

Get yourselve the equivalent of oil-wealth, without any further delay.

TownCrier

(01/03/2003; 02:55:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93297)

Notable quote

As reported by Business Day--

Jason Goodwin, author of Greenback, a recently published book on the link between the dollar and US history, describes the relationship between gold and currencies thus:

"Gold, the argument runs, doesn't stoop to flattery. Gold, being tight-lipped, offers no hostages to fortune. It remembers nothing, venerates no one. It trumpets no ideals, protests no loyalties, offers no jam today or tomorrow, doesn't much care if a war rumbles on for years or finishes in a triumphant blitzkrieg. Cold, old and remote, it doesn't even pay interest. The dimmer the days, the more irrational the conflict, the brighter it gleams."

"Gold will always be a part of the mystery of money. Just as it's good for our souls, once in a while, to keep warm around a log fire, or settle down with a good old-fashioned book, so gold can never disappear, because its an eternal, disinterested witness to the tragicomedy of human history."
---

Sensibility dictates a course of action. Call USAGOLD-Centennial today for assistance with your well-advised acquisition.

R.

Black Blade

(01/03/2003; 02:59:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93298)

Gold, the warm log fire in a cold, harsh world

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1256079-6079-0,00.html
Snippit:

Jason Goodwin, author of Greenback, a recently published book on the link between the dollar and US history, describes the relationship between gold and currencies thus: "Gold, the argument runs, doesn't stoop to flattery. Gold, being tight-lipped, offers no hostages to fortune. It remembers nothing, venerates no one. It trumpets no ideals, protests no loyalties, offers no jam today or tomorrow, doesn't much care if a war rumbles on for years or finishes in a triumphant blitzkrieg. Cold, old and remote, it doesn't even pay interest. The dimmer the days, the more irrational the conflict, the brighter it gleams." According to World Gold Council analyst Jill Leyland, gold is often seen as a form of insurance. "You buy it before the event, not afterwards." Since "the event" has not transpired, this additional support for gold has lasted longer than anticipated. "If gold is a magnet for our wartime fears, it is only a brief outburst of irrationality in an irrational world, an atavistic sentiment, fleetingly indulged," writes Goodwin. "Gold will always be a part of the mystery of money. Just as it's good for our souls, once in a while, to keep warm around a log fire, or settle down with a good old-fashioned book, so gold can never disappear, because its an eternal, disinterested witness to the tragicomedy of human history."

Black Blade: Well put.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/03/2003; 03:01:49 MDT - Msg ID: 93299)

Hard assets... Easy access!

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

"For as long as cannons have thundered,
they have echoed
with the sound of men yearning for gold."

-- R. Strauss

Black Blade

(01/03/2003; 03:02:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93300)

Looks Like Townie Found The Same Quote!

It definitely caught my attention too. I might have to check out the reviews on Goodwin's book.

- Black Blade

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/03/2003; 05:11:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93301)

"Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

Marie Ballard Ext 106

We look forward to your inquiry.

TownCrier

(01/03/2003; 06:02:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93302)

HEADLINE: Gold funds again No. 1 in '02

http://www2.ocregister.com/ocrweb/ocr/article.do?id=18895§ion=BUSINESS&year=2003&month=1&day=3Some managers say the metal could be even more precious to skittish investors as output falls in the next five years.

BOSTON � Mutual funds devoted to gold were the fund industry's best performers in 2002, for a second year. Some of their managers expect the winning streak to be extended this year.

While gold rallied above $350 an ounce in December and reached a 51/2-year high, these managers said the metal and shares of gold producers were so badly beaten during the 1990s that they still have room to move higher.

"There hasn't been any big move into gold - we're not attracting the hot money," said Greg Orrell, manager of the Monterey OCM Gold Fund. "We still sense quite a bit of skepticism. It's still early in this run."

...Funds may benefit from reduced gold production, some investors said. Output will fall 2 percent annually in the next five years, according to Gold Fields Mineral Service.

Gold miners cut spending on exploration every year from 1997 through 2000, according to Frank Holmes, manager of the US Global Investors Gold Shares Fund.

"Imagine if Microsoft or Pfizer had a huge drop-off in spending on research and development," Holmes said. "We're going to have a shrinkage of supply."

Increasing gold purchases by Chinese investors could bolster the metal in 2003 as well, Orrell said. China began sales of gold bullion to individuals last month for the first time since 1949, when communists took charge.

--------(article at url)--------

Not surprisingly, the commentary indicates that gold has ample upside even in light of past years' gains. The money supply game and confidence game being what it is, it isn't hard to imagine gold sailing as papery products of all sorts fall under suspicion, including shares in gold funds themselves. Even a portfolio of gold stocks and funds should be diversified with metal.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper. How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD -Centennial has bullion, bars, coins, and certified coins to help you secure your position.

R.

TownCrier

(01/03/2003; 06:05:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93303)

Diversification alternatives

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/rationale.htmlCall MK, Jon, or George today to discuss a strategy that's right for you.

Belgian

(01/03/2003; 06:17:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93304)

@ Ax : The US buying Gold ???

*WHO* is going to sell *WICH* Gold to the US-treasury...for more US$ ???
3,000 tonnes of underground gold have already been sold forward. Paper-gold-claims exeeding 15,000 tonnes are standing out. Euroland's Gold-reserves are NOT for sale against dollars to be added to the already obsolete, massive, dollar-exchange-reserves. China, Russia are mining the Gold for themselves and South Africa, Canada, Australia can only sell Gold, profitable, as long as their currencies keep on declining against the dollar.

Any "Gold-buy" by the US would make its dollar *WEAKER* in Gold (POG-rise=more dollars per ounce). And you certainly know what will happen (is happening) when the dollar goes down !

THE GOLD BALL IS NOT IN THE DOLLAR CAMP...anymore !

The US has been losing the bulk of its Goldreserves up to 1971 (28,000 tonnes > 8,160 tonnes). The dollar went for the oil and is doing the same thing today in a last gigantic effort to have its reserve-currency backed with a portion of real wealth (confiscated ME-SA-oil).

A new rumor is launched that the ME wishes Saddam to step down if the US should start the attack on Iraq !? The sacrificial lamb theory (speculation). POO is on its eleventh day out of the 22$-28$ range. Saudi taps should open after 9 days ? Yes, the *supply* of oil will never be a problem...only the worthless $-currency that is paid for it ! The great broken promiss. Let's price Gold correctly and open the oil-taps for abundant cheap flow. Non Arabian oil-producers (South American) will re-think the dollar's intrinsic worth, again and again up until they understand and make Another choice.

Rock

(01/03/2003; 07:00:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93305)

Three Words For Yesterdays Rally

DEAD CAT BOUNCE!

Rock

(01/03/2003; 07:18:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93306)

Want A Good Laugh?

Watch the Mummy tonight at 8:30 pm EST, guest speaker Abby Joseph Cohen.

R Powell

(01/03/2003; 07:54:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93307)

Quick Quiz

Just a quick one question quiz to see if everyone has been paying attention...

Black Blade is best described as
A. Warm
B. Fuzzy
C. Cuddly
D. Scathing

Rock

(01/03/2003; 08:15:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93308)

Answer to Blackblade Quiz:

He's warm to us and scathing to the street. lol

miner49er

(01/03/2003; 08:25:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93309)

Belgian --- a breath of fresh air...

Just wanted to say it's been most enjoyable seeing you back, and reading your thoughts of late... A little holiday break does wonders, no?

Dollars paperized to the heavens, and people will suddenly realize just how really SCARCE the precious yellow METAL actually is...

Great stuff!

Paper Avalanche -- saw your mention of me in your list the other day... thx... I'm in and out with so many other obligations right now, that I just have no time to post, or even really keep up with the forum of late.

All -- Best wishes for a safe and prosperous new year...

miner

White Rose

(01/03/2003; 09:03:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93310)

Silver getting closer to $4.89

Sinclair said that $4.89 might be the launch point for silver. Any comments right now?

Genoo

(01/03/2003; 09:06:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93311)

spot gold and spot silver

In late December 2002 Spot gold broke through and held above the $340 level. So far each time it is pushed down it is pushed less close to the $340 level. In the past two days it continues to demonstrate great volatility eg. today, to this time, it has moved sharply back and forth and all in a negative direction until a few minutes ago when it turned green and is currently up $.80 as I type. It appears to be behaving in a restless manner and wants to break higher but seems to be waiting for something to spur it on.

Spot silver is now plus $.04 at $4.83 [and Turk recently recommened a contract be bought at the first close above $4.76].

Perhaps silver is telling us that it is going to run and 'take' gold with it...wouldn't that be a great way to end the first week of the 2003 gold bull market.

Truthcaster

(01/03/2003; 09:25:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93312)

Gold and Sliver

I Agree with Genoo-
Yesterday while spot gold was down, and at one point
down over 4 bucks silver was a little higher, and
I thought gosh silver should be down 10 to 15 cents
like normal. So today same thing silver clearly
is leading gold higher. Wild. But too last week
before silver had it's little run silver mining co's
were out and running in like (CDE) And Apex silver mines
posting big gains while the gold sector was lagging
somewhat. Should be fun to watch....

cyberbat

(01/03/2003; 09:30:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93313)

Skyward!

Ladies and gentleman, we have a vertical lift off by the good ship "Spot" to 348.50 and climbing.All I can say is "Go with throttles Up"!!

sector

(01/03/2003; 09:49:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93314)

Federal Reserve Bank of New York: No Open market Action Today...

...the aggregate Repo "Float" has fallen......from $40.75 Billion on Dec 26th to $24 Billion today as a result of expirations.

This since Novemebr 18th when I began tracking the numbers [Plus or minus a cell entry error or two].

Looks like the Fed sent a tiny message today. Maybe the party is over. Time to start the war.
+++++++++++++

cyberbat

(01/03/2003; 10:00:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93315)

Still Climbing

$350.90 and steady.

sector

(01/03/2003; 10:07:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93316)

Can You Say...

...backwardationAny close above $348 will mark an important day of backwardation. That will stress the cabal even further. Note also the silver moves and the departure of the new "There-must-be-a-mountain-of-silver-just-waiting-to-be-sold" guys from the forum board.

Maybe they made one last effort before running from the explosion they knew was coming.

Gandalf the White

(01/03/2003; 10:13:30 MDT - Msg ID: 93317)

Way ta GO, SPOT !!!

Sic "em SPOT !!
Jump !!
<;-)

Cavan Man

(01/03/2003; 10:18:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93318)

sector 93314

Can you interpret for this poor, dumb mick.

a nation of one

(01/03/2003; 10:30:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93319)

...

If anyone ever wanted to jump in, now is the time.

mikal

(01/03/2003; 10:31:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93320)

@sector

I apologize to those who come to the forum seeking open discussion and friendly advice for the goings on here. Sector, you are the only one who repeatedly mischaracterizes the silver discussion held on two nights. If you can't agree with the idea that silver will be volatile, and possibly become overbought at lofty levels, fine. But you refuse to play on a level playing field, respect or even acknowledge the ideas and people. Your attempt yesterday to portray us as greasy agents of JPM for example. Or set aprice around $3.00 that we NEVER came close to saying. You cannot even admit you twisted my words and insulted me in one post. I for one have encouraged and even complimented you in the past, not for your ego.

R Powell

(01/03/2003; 10:34:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93321)

Gold and silver Up // Kitco down

Gold up 6.00 to 351.80
Silver up 0.08 to 4.87
And Kitco is, of course, down. A reminder for her fans, Abbey Joe will be the guest analyst on the Ruyksters show tonight.
Note for Sector, Seattle Sun reports that the FIG index you follow will not be given today. I guess the math was too hard to compute. It gets tough with big numbers.
Rich

cyberbat

(01/03/2003; 10:39:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93322)

Viewership down

The Drudge report has an article about CNBC. Their audience is down 44%!! Maybe the sheepal are beginning to catch on. I know CNBC will.

a nation of one

(01/03/2003; 10:52:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93323)

world markets

Some day the right people are going to realize that everyone needs to be able to trade in every market every hour of every day. When this becomes possible, market manipulation will dramatically decrease, market prices will more accurately be in agreement with general realities, and many more people will become very, very rich.

knotakare

(01/03/2003; 11:02:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93324)

Sector: scource of Repo numbers

Where do you access the FED repo numbers? Very interesting your observation. Thank you,

knotakare

a nation of one

(01/03/2003; 11:35:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93325)

means more than one thing

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I'm not mistaken a steel blade becomes black when it's cut into a lot meat and has been covered with blood a lot of times.

Gandalf the White

(01/03/2003; 11:39:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93326)

Sir Nation of "1"

a nation of one (1/3/03; 11:35:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 93325)
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I'm not mistaken a steel blade becomes black when it's cut into a lot meat and has been covered with blood a lot of times.
===
ONLY if it is OLD and "porous" !
The Hobbits LOVE ya Black Blade !!
<;-)

a nation of one

(01/03/2003; 11:45:49 MDT - Msg ID: 93327)

obsidian would be too

I see nothing wrong with it. A man needs to be able to take care of himself. As for age, I am old myself. I still learn much on account of the superior quality of Black Blade's work. And when it's not here, I feel its absence.

Maverick1

(01/03/2003; 12:02:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93328)

@R Powell

I guess it is time to reach up the back of "Gabby Abby" and pull the string that will keep her spewing her stock predictions for another year! What a moron she is!

Gandalf the White

(01/03/2003; 12:06:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93329)

TAKE a Weekend REST both of you, SPOT and SPIKE !

Well that US$350. BARRIER was not so HIGH afterall !
Way ta GO, SPOT
The range today on the COMEX Feb Contract was $9.9 between a High of $353.5 and a LOW of $343.6.
Settlement looks to be somewhere around $351.4 ---BUT is it too early to tell as my Crystal Ball has a LEGALLY required DELAY on that number !
NEXT week looks to be even MORE interesting !
<;-)

a nation of one

(01/03/2003; 12:09:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93330)

@ mikal (1/3/03; 10:31:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 93320)

You said to Sector: "I for one have encouraged and even complimented you in the past,...."

--That was your mistake. Young males don't need compliments. What they appreciate is instruction. If you have to compliment someone, compliment me, I'm old enough to enjoy it even when I know it isn't true. What is that old saying? "The old -who forgive themselves everything- are forgiven nothing; whereas the young, although they forgive themselves nothing, are forgiven everything." Most young mens' egos, though, don't need any help.

Gandalf the White

(01/03/2003; 12:19:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93331)

GC3G Settlement today was OFFICALLY = $351.6 ........+ $5.1

WHAT a difference a couple of days makes !
Have a GREAT weekend all, as I have a GOLDEN BIRTHDAY Party to host this weekend for all the Hobbits!!
See you next week.
"Poor" OLD Gandy
<;-)

a nation of one

(01/03/2003; 12:24:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93332)

gabby abby

Re: Maverick1 (1/3/03; 12:02:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 93328)

You say: "I guess it is time to reach up the back of "Gabby Abby" and pull the string that will keep her spewing her stock predictions for another year! What a moron she is!"

--Abby is not a moron. She is as smart as they come. She merely understands that she can't make any money selling bear market stocks to a bunch of customers who lack the wherewithal to figure out how to sell anything short. Why do you think the stock market recovers every time it falls five or six inches? It's because the crashmongers make more money that way. And not every person believes it is important to speak only truth. Some are willing to do anything that may be necessary to get themselves an extra buck or two. A lot of people -I'm not one of them- would say that the problem is not that she has sold out and that you and I have not, but that you and I have not sold out, period.

(Of course this does not mean that I approve of her methods. Just that I know what they are.)

sector

(01/03/2003; 12:54:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93333)

@knotacare The FRBNY issues the repo amounts through...

http://app.ny.frb.org/dmm/mkt.cfm...its website listed above. It takes a while to load.

@mikal I reacted to Mr. Bill's shots and his curious ignorance, didn't intend to smite you. Indeed your diligent and informative posts enhance us all at this board.

My first silver post merely posited some ideas supporting caution in silver due to the hidden issues shrouded therein.

I do, however, differ with the concepts of "Overbought" and "Oversold" to describe what has been and clearly is, a manipulated precious metals market...especially silver.

There can be no Elliott wave, fibbonacci number, bull-flag, teacup or pattern-based technical [price driven] analysis in such a market because the primary influencer is the third party intervention of the federal government into the otherwise free precious metals market. The basis for technical analysis is quite valid in all other two-party market transactions but fails in a three-party regime as we see today. Sinclair's bet with the Elliot wavers is as safe as snow on Mt. Denali.

Incidentally the inability to predict the future positions in a three-body, gravitationally bound astronomical system is referred to as the "Three-Body" problem. I has been known for centuries as the prime example of how non-linear, chaotic problems defy solution. It for this exact reason that a manipulated financial market cannot be "Predicted" with any success because the future actions of one of the players [The government] cannot be known from the price data. Only from external market sources can one glean future possibilities.

One tactic of manipulators is to employ an army of confusers who point to sources of potential commodity that would cause a price fall. Some of these voices don't know they are being used, some do...and get paid. You are not in this group, "Mr. Bill" is [Whether he knows it or not].
+++++++++

@CavenMan The backwardation that we now find ourselves in simply means that spot is higher than the nearest month futures contract. This condition effects gold lease rates across the boards in such a way so as to further volatility which is bad for those hoping to keep gold down.

Black Blade

(01/03/2003; 12:56:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93334)

A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/charts/cdcharttcl?symm=GLD.FX1&hist=1&dbrushwidth=1&charttype=1&gd1=na&gd2=na&benchmark=∈fos=3∈dtype1=0∈dtype2=0&volumen=2
A very nice chart - (see link)

- Black Blade (a warm fuzzy cuddly guy who is also "scathing")

Black Blade

(01/03/2003; 13:09:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93335)

The EIA NatGas Weekly Storage Report

Storage Highlights:

Working gas in storage was 2,417 Bcf as of Friday, December 27, 2002, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 123 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 572 Bcf less than last year at this time and 95 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,512 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 128 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 68 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 13 Bcf below the 5-year average of 677 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 29 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 46 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 26 Bcf. At 2,417 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

Black Blade: This is the upper end of withdrawal predicted and if predictions for an Artic blast hold true along with declining production we could see some rocketing NG and electricity rates on top of already rising costs. And the last couple of weeks were warmer than the average temperature. This is coincident with rising oil prices, record low oil inventories, threat of war in Iraq, and Venezuelan reductions in production and exports. Not a pretty picture for the US economy. "Interesting Times"

SilverHoard

(01/03/2003; 13:35:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93336)

Black Blade #93334

BB, Do not want to put you on the spot (bad pun), please tell us your opinion as to the reason for this spike. If this level should hold, what is the forecast for even higher short term levels?
PS: Have used this link for Silver too. Seems to be up more than other site.

Maverick1

(01/03/2003; 13:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93337)

@a nation of one

Touche'....I judged the book by its cover....I still don't like it.

Black Blade

(01/03/2003; 13:56:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93338)

Re: SilverHoard

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
You will find that answer in today's Daily Market Report (at the link). I just put it up. We are in a secular bull market and the stock market is in a secular bear market. However, today the concern is on geopolitical and US corporate profit concerns. Also, the USD and equities are weaker and threaten to weaken further as next week we enter "confession season" as companies spin their tall tales and "analysts" (and I use the term very loosely) remark that these companies "met or beat" vastly lowered earnings estimates. That said, the war talk has really intensified and energy costs are rapidly rising on fast decling inventories. Heck, even some politicos are calling for a raid on the "Strategic Petroleum Reserve". This reflects a desperate situation as oil hits record US inventory lows and fast decling inventories (and production) of domestic NatGas. The implications for corporations and consumers is obvious. This is very much like what preceded the era of "Stagflation" in the 1970's and early 1980's. It should get rather "interesting".

Cheers!

- Black Blade (the warm fuzzy cuddly scathing one)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/03/2003; 13:57:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93339)

Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

Black Blade

(01/03/2003; 14:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93340)

Crude Oil Rises on Signs Venezuela Strike Is Draining Supply

Black Blade

(01/03/2003; 14:43:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93341)

Japanese reluctantly turn to bankruptcy to survive

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/3565832.html
Snippit:

OSAKA, JAPAN -- At the cramped offices of the Icho-no-kai credit counseling center in Osaka, about a dozen workers, housewives and other hard-luck cases are engaged in what has become an increasingly common ritual: They are declaring bankruptcy. Once almost inconceivable in a nation that places such a high value on savings, Japanese are resorting to personal bankruptcy in record numbers in response to a punishing squeeze caused by five consecutive years of falling wages and rising unemployment. As their financial woes have worsened, many have turned first to legal lenders but then often to loan sharks who charge rapidly compounding interest rates. To escape this trap, about 220,000 people are expected to seek protection from creditors this year, up more than a third from 2001. Declaring bankruptcy in Japan still is relatively uncommon, and Americans are four times as likely as Japanese to seek bankruptcy protection. But as long as the stagnation of the Japanese economy continues, personal bankruptcies seem likely to continue growing sharply. According to some estimates, as many as 2 million Japanese are effectively bankrupt but haven't filed the paperwork, or can't. Even that does not convey the full extent of the financial stress in Japan. Despite encouragement from a government that is committed to making it cheaper and easier to file for bankruptcy, every year thousands of people in distress commit suicide, police statistics show, rather than face their debt collectors, friends and families in shame. "People get desperate," said Yoshiaki Tanaka, the secretary-general of Icho-no-kai, which has experienced a sixfold increase in visitors in the past two years. "A drowning man will grasp at straws."

Black Blade: The situation is getting much worse. For those who understand the Japanese culture where winning is everything, failure is more than an embarrassment. Many seek to escape by suicide (no not necessarily the traditional Hari Kiri ritual). At one point distressed business people would throw themselves into the path of speeding bullet trains leading many engineers to psychological counseling. It is no wonder then that Japanese housewives and young Japanese are seeking safety in Gold. Gold purchases are on the surge in Japan once again as the realization the government is unable or unwilling to take the necessary steps to clean up the economy and force the failed banking sector into much needed reforms. Truly a "grim" and sad situation.

Goldrush

(01/03/2003; 14:47:22 MDT - Msg ID: 93342)

More violence in Venezuela

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex&box=ad_box_all&tag=worldnews∣dle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APhX9IhaVVmVuZXp1Caracas, Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan soldiers fired tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse thousands of demonstrators near an army base, and President Hugo Chavez said he considered declaring a state of emergency to end a national strike.

One person was injured by a gun shot and five others by rocks in clashes between anti-Chavez and pro-government protesters, Globovision television reported. Police said seven officers had also been injured.

``We're trying to disperse everyone before someone gets killed,'' Henry Vivas, who heads the capital's metropolitan police, told reporters. Scattered skirmishes between Chavez supporters and opponents continued near the Fuerte Tiuna base, where a dissident national guard general is being held.
____________
Oil field maintenance has been neglected, fields are a mess.
It will take months to get fields up and producing at pre-conflict
levels even if conflict ended today.

Pippin

(01/03/2003; 15:00:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93343)

Elliott Waves ...again.

I would be thankful if one of the experts here could give me his opinion on Prechter's reiterated view that POG is reaching a top and will decline sharply within the next weeks -although he's quite bullish on gold long term-.
He seems to have a good tracking record and quite a number of success stories to tell, but I must say I'm a bit confused. Among all people agreeing that the economic situation is between bad and dramatic, he's the only one claiming that POG will drop. And when I say , I think of a bottom like ...$200.
Last but not least, he forecasted a top at $350.-- a few months ago. So he's not surprised by the present level.
Any opinion ?

TownCrier

(01/03/2003; 15:13:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93344)

Cavan Man's question on the Fed's repo position (msg#: 93318)

Very basically, the decline in the amount of outstanding volume of repo-facilitated reserves seen at this time is a consequence of the Christmas/New Year's holiday season being now behind us.

There is always (on top of the larger trend) a seasonal bubble of cash withdrawals that the Fed compensates for with repos. These additional reserves are allowed to run off as the money in wallets and purses finds its way back into bank deposits as the holiday's wind down.

Did that do the trick for you?

Randy

Paper Avalanche

(01/03/2003; 15:25:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93345)

Is anyone watching CNBC this afternoon?

I just watched the commodities scroll across the bottom of the screen at 5:25 pm EST on CNBC and they had POG at 344 and POS at 4.80.

Did someone change the paper prices AFTER the close or is this likely a glitch in CNBC's system? Did anyone else see this? I am going to watch it again to see if this changes.

Thanks!
Paper Avalanche

Paper Avalanche

(01/03/2003; 15:36:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93346)

Saw it again on CNBC

The question that I cannot avoid asking:

Glitch or intentional?

Going to the gym.

PA

Black Blade

(01/03/2003; 15:41:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93347)

Re: Paper Avalanche

Gold finished above $350 an ounce with no subsequent trade. The scrawl is stuck since this morning even as the POG surged higher. Of course it can't be that certain interests would like to dishearten Gold investors could it? Hmmm...

Nahhh!

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!

Gold Standard

(01/03/2003; 16:04:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93348)

Now its going to hit the fan.....

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/030103/markets_gold_jpmorgan_1.html
Full text from above link:

Reuters
JP Morgan asks SEC to check into gold trade rumors
Friday January 3, 3:45 pm ET

NEW YORK, Jan 3 (Reuters) - JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM - News), a major bullion dealing bank, said Friday it has asked the Securities and Exchange Commission to look into rumors about gold trading losses that dogged the bank throughout 2002.

"We brought the nature and subject of the rumors to the SEC and asked them to look at it," a spokesman for the bank said.

The rumors about Morgan's gold and gold derivatives operations have been propagated over the Web site of the Gold Anti Trust Action Committee (GATA), a group that alleges bullion banks have colluded with central banks to prevent the price of bullion from rising.

The price of gold is at its highest in almost six years.

JP Morgan, which ran into trouble over its commodity and derivatives dealings with bankrupt energy giant Enron Corp., said in November that market talk that it lost between $17 billion and $70 billion during the gold rally was "false and irresponsible."

The rumors surfaced several times last year, hurting the bank's stock price.

Two weeks ago GATA said it will assist an anti-trust lawsuit filed by U.S. coin and bullion dealer Blanchard and Co. against JP Morgan and Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold (Toronto:ABX.TO - News) accusing each of manipulating the gold market to keep prices weak.

Barrick dismissed the allegations of the lawsuit as ludicrous and without merit. JP Morgan declined to comment.
___________________________________________________________

I wonder whether this will receive wide mainstream publicity? Is this the first time that GATA has been mentioned in the media without the tags "conspiracy theorists" or "nutters"?

If BB wasn't at the gym, he'd say "Interesting".

Cheers

Mr. Bill

(01/03/2003; 16:07:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93349)

@sector

I am curious. Do you get paid by the week or by the post for each bit of nonsense about silver that you provide. If I was going to set up a sting in silver, I sure could use someone like you on my payroll. Lemmings tend to like big lies.

Topaz

(01/03/2003; 16:21:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93350)

Bonds

http://www.smartmoney.com/onebond/index.cfm?story=yieldcurve....play the Movie, note the trend....and the steepening of late.
Mr Greenspan may well come to GWB's "economic stimulus" party on Tuesday with a 1/4% cut.
The behemoth US Banking system on a saline drip.
@Pippin,
Elliot wave AND Mr Gold both miss the point imo...Gold 320, Euro parity and rate cut dead ahead, assuming those pesky Gold mutuals don't spoil the fun.

sector

(01/03/2003; 16:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93351)

@Pippin Elliot's @200 per ounce gold Forecast...

...has a zero probability of happening. Elliott isIndeed, seeing $300 again has a very near zero probability due to the logical condition that the central banks have sold forward 16,000 tonnes of their 32,000 tonne stash so far in order to cap gold these last 7 years.

In order to get gold back down to $200 the sales of all their assets in gold would therefore be required and even THAT is in question since the rising demand is so powerful these days.

The only force acting to keep gold and silver down where it is today is the continued sales of metal from official central bank sources.

CBWS

(01/03/2003; 16:47:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93352)

Bush Spins Economic woes to Terrorism

Step 1. A terrorist act in the US. Step 2. Bush war is justified and blame for the economy is spun further. Step 3. American people are not fooled and PM's go higher. Step 4.....?

R Powell

(01/03/2003; 16:51:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93353)

Pippin

Elliott wave theory is not my strong suit but I'll compound your question by corrolating it with the inflation/deflation question. The only way I can envision a POG at $200 is if severe deflation dries up the flow of money to the point that no one wants to part with whatever cash they still hold. That is, under our present green fiat money system. However, if POG were at $2000/ounce and the government announced that as of next Tuesday all green money had to be redeemed for blue colored bucks at a rate of 10 green ones for each new blue one, what then would be the POG?
I have noticed while trying to understand technical analysis that if there is more than one technical analyst involved in prediction, there will usually be more than one forecast. This is true even if the group is strickly Elliot wavers (as opposed to any number of other technical systems). I don't suppose this answers your question at all but it gives me an excuse to post so I can say...
Happy Weekend !!
Rich

Christian

(01/03/2003; 17:37:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93354)

(No Subject)

Mortgage refinancings and home equity lending have been at the epicenter of the credit explosion. Our financial system is a house of cards built on financial leverage, credit excesses, speculation and derivatives. All made possible because the banksters own the gold. The problem with the present monetary system is that there is not enough real physical money in circulation to pay back the loans and interest. The real money supply is collapsing while credit money supply is expanding. In 1997 interest cost to profits were 23% and in 2002 interest cost to profits were 100% of profits. By 2010 interest cost will exceed 200% of profits. People, states, corporations, are doing what the federal government is doing --- BORROW to make the payment due. How did we ent up with $78 Trillion off balance sheet Federal debt and the $49 Trillion off balance sheet State debt. The housing bubble is made possible with credit not cash. Watch how credit equity disappears in the comming years and at the same time property taxes increase

The Invisible Hand

(01/03/2003; 17:54:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93355)

Another denial: UK housing bubble is not bursting

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-531612,00.htmlSNIP
WARNINGS that the house price boom is on the brink of a painful crash were rejected yesterday by the Governor of the Bank of England as he tried to calm mounting fears over the economy.

===
Bush says he's going to liberate Iraq. Liberate from what? Who's asking to be liberated?
Bush says Iraq must disarm. How can Iraq possibly disarm if it has no WMD, but only invisible arms?
Is the war also a pretext to let the US housing bubble burst?

Chris Powell

(01/03/2003; 18:04:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93356)

Morgan Chase stomps around some more in pursuit of that nasty 'rumor'

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1366How could anyone possibly think that Morgan
Chase is in the gold business?

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1366

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

sector

(01/03/2003; 19:33:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93357)

@ The Invisible Hand About Iraq and the pretext for war

It's the housing bubble and a lot more..."Is the war a pretext to let the housing bubble burst?"

Well... it seems that it is a pretext for many things, not the least of which is a play for Middle East oil. There is simply no way to ever balance the trade deficit, the US budget deficit and execute a US economic recovery without the theft of Iraq's oil through some propped-up US puppet. The abyss of the US trade deficit is too deep. A whole bunch of other macro economic things will happen in the fog of this war too.

The US build-up of 80,000 Iraq troupes look to be achieved towards the end of this month.

Of that number [IF it is the real final number] only a fraction will be fighting...say...40%. The rest as support and battle reserves. The Iraqis have 300,000 guys with guns. This 80,000 US figure runs counter to the floated Pentagon party-line supporting General Tommy Franks request for 250,000 troupes. Even a novice military wonk can see that trying to do this Iraq War thingy with too few people is a recipe for disaster, no matter how superior our war toys are. It is a very long way [400 kms] from Basra to Baghdad�a supply line that must be defended in a very hostile enviornment.

It will be a street fight, house-to-house in both places and Saddam will use VX to kill his own folks and successfully blame Bush. Al Jazzera will be there at the WMD ground zero with help from CNN's recalled-from-retirement correspondent Peter Arnett. They will show round-the-clock tape of the civilian carnage. All that will be needed to make this scenario a perfect, apocalyptic "Ten" is for a junior US field commander to launch a few "Theater nukes".

Any moderate Arabs left will be radicalized in a white flash. The UN will go ballistic. China will not stay silent as the President's advisors [Rove, et al] suggest even as the North Koreans put the finishing touches on their own latest shipment [To the Mid East] of freshly minted Kilo-tonners. The US anti-war folks will be galvanized into action. The center of Washington will be invaded and overrun in a few days time as the White House marvels at how they misread the American anti-war sentiment. Al Gore may even lumber out of retirement�but only if he can grow his beard back quickly enough.

The Russian Defense Minister Sergi Ivanov said of Iraq a few weeks ago, if they believe they have been wrongly invaded, "The Iraqis will fight". What if the Iraqi civilians fight too? There are over 2 million people in Baghdad. Could they actually get weapons? Hey�it's the Middle East, weapons grow on fig trees.

All the while the opportunistic Russians will circle overhead of the mess to swoop down at just the right time to come out way ahead as a cool-headed and rational "Peacemakers".

What a country.

Dollar Bill

(01/03/2003; 19:36:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93358)

Bill Murphy still confused.

Bill Murphy still doesnt know what he is doing.
He has no plan for bridgeing from this system to another.
He has no answer when asked about the consequences if he is successful, he has no plan for the billions of people who rely on the best efforts (even if flawed) of the worlds
central bankers to provide a way for us all to live and eat.

He proudly hopes to undermine the present system of fiat without any plan whatsoever to lead us to any alternate.

Speak up murphy, but you wont, you have nothing to reply.

R Powell

(01/03/2003; 19:37:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93359)

Rukeyser // Abbey Joe

As is his custom, he opened with a summary of the week's stock market action noting the upturn of the Dow index as a possible good omen for the year ahead. Yes, he did mention gold stating that gold stock funds were the leaders, not only last year but for the last two years. He also noted that the POG was off its 1999 lows and now above $350.

Of his panelists, only Frank Capiello mentioned gold by saying that he would now take some profits (sell) from mining stocks. Funny, I don't ever remember him recommending buying them.

Abbey Joe has not lost an iota of her slick charm. Her past horrendous predictions were excused on the bases that no one could have predicted the attack on America, the extent of corporate fraud or the present uncertain geo-political atmosphere. This, of course, assumes that these are the causes of the present conditions. Nothing else was mentioned such as the fact that the markets were tanking long before Sept. 11, 2001.
Abbey is still optimistic, believes the S+P is undervalued, GDP will be about 3%, sees no double dip recession and predicts a year end DOW near 10,800. Wow! She did concede that the dollar is and has been overvalued for years but did not elaborate on this condition. Corporate bookkeeping is now the "cleanest" that she can remember. I found myself wondering that if she can state this now, the statement implies the ability to evaluate and differentiate between honest and fraudulent company reports. This begs the question of where were the warnings of possible fraud before the fact. She is still a cool, confident and camera friendly presence with the ability to smoothly answer questions with well structured responses. I don't agree with her analysis but could not help but admire her showmanship. Imho, she will dazzle many investors again and the Bear will not suffer for lack of investment funds to rampage.
Rich

Sierra Madre

(01/03/2003; 19:52:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93360)

Sector: Again, "What a country!"

Yes, indeed, what a country!

Iraq will be a lead-pipe-cinch. No problema. Two weeks.

All it takes, will be the use of micro-, mini- and mega-(if necessary) nukes. Bim! Bam! Boom! Iraqis erradicated. Baghdad is no more. And what will the "International Community" say? They can say what they please. But, they better watch their words, cause Uncle Sam on the rampage - he might not care for criticism.

It seems to me we keep thinking of US intervening in Iraq, according to what we have seen before.

Desperate situations call for desperate measures, and the US (who wouda thunk!) may go in for nukes right and left, until mission accomplished.

Sierra

R Powell

(01/03/2003; 19:58:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93361)

Dollar Bill

I don't think Bill Murphy ever aspired to fix the world or any part of it including the monetary system. As I understand the situation, he believes the free market process has been subverted and intensionally manipulated. He is crusading to uncover and bring the facts of the matter to public attention. There are laws against those actions which he claims are routinely performed. He and GATA are trying to prove that anti-trust laws have been violated, laws with many believe are essential to insure freedom, free markets and liberty. The beast Murphy fears is an unfettered, totalitarian central government. Whether he is right or wrong in his assessment of this or to what extent he is correct is not the issue, the issue is that he is willing to stand up and investigate. Hopefully time will disclose the truth of the matter, whatever that truth is. He has never stated that he wishes to change the system or made any claims whatsoever that he could. He's simply trying to force the existing legal system to function as it should by uncovering what he believes is unlawful, unethical and a threat to free enterprise.
Rich

Goldrush

(01/03/2003; 20:04:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93362)

More tragedy

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Two people were shot dead and two dozen were wounded on Friday when foes and supporters of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez clashed in Caracas as the opposition stepped up street protests in its drive to force the leftist leader to resign.

Demonstrators and police ran for cover after dozens of gunshots rang out near the capital's military headquarters, breaking the uneasy Christmas calm that had settled over the streets during an ongoing 33-day-old opposition strike.

"There was a volley of shots. We all threw ourselves to the ground. There was chaos and total panic. The shooting didn't stop," said a Reuters photographer at the scene.

National Guard troops and police fired tear gas and shotgun pellets to stop a few hundred Chavez supporters from attacking thousands of opposition marchers, who were also forced back by troops. Confused running battles broke out as groups from both sides hurled rocks.

City health officials said two of six people hit by gunfire had died. Another person was injured by police shotgun pellets and at least 20 people were wounded by stones and objects thrown by protesters.

It was unclear who had opened fire, but witnesses saw several people on both sides produce handguns after the shooting began.

Columns of smoke wafted high above apartment blocks in the southwest part of Caracas as pro-Chavez demonstrators set up burning barricades near Fuerte Tiuna military base to block the opposition marchers demanding the government free a dissident general detained this week.
__________________________

R Powell- Thats a good one, I don't remember Frank recommending
gold stocks either. Biggs was on a couple weeks ago and Louis
asked him would he put 10% into gold, and Biggs paused for
a long... pregnant ...moment... and finally snapped no. There was
a collective sigh of relief and grins all round.
I've never heard silver stocks discussed on bubblevision....ever.

Albatros

(01/03/2003; 20:28:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93363)

Musical ships & other things down under...

According to local press reports, the aircraft carrier USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN and its battle group is planning to return to the port of Fremantle in Western Australia next Monday for an undetermined period of time only nine days after departing from a week's R&R over Christmas. The ships had been sheduled to return to the US but are now reportedly being prepared for possible action off Iraq.

Australian consultants reportedly estimating Australian Superannuation funds lost an average of 7.2% in 2002, being the worst outcome in 28 years. In real terms 9 million Australians who had AUD 500 billion in retirement savings at the beginning of 2002, are now AUD 38 billion lighter in retirement savings. Australian markets were down 8.5% for the year.

Australia is currently suffering one of the worst droughts on record and most farmers will be scratching to find the cash to sow new crops this year. Livestock being depleted.

So much for one of the world's best performing economies & little wonder Spot is jumping...

Sierra Madre

(01/03/2003; 20:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93364)

This is a Precious Metals Forum, especially, a Gold Forum

And we don't care too much for Dollar Bills in these parts.

Sierra

Sierra Madre

(01/03/2003; 20:52:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93365)

I've been wanting to mention this, last couple of days....

Something tells me - of course, I may be quite mistaken - that GWB is having second thoughts about War on Iraq.

I sure hope he does, and calls the whole operation off; it would be the humane thing to do. Probably, a sensible thing, too.

But, think of his personal situation: here he has cranked up the US population since 911, about WAR. First that sitting duck, Afghanistan. Now, the massive buildup of troops, ships, planes, nukes, the works just outside Iraq. And then, he says, "OK men, the war if OFF, everybody goes home."

All this hoopla, and then - no war. How could GWB stand this? Even if it were the right thing to do?

And yet, I have this feeling that GWB is getting cold feet.

For humanity's sake, I hope he does.

******

Apparently, some guys with deep pockets didn't want to miss the gold train over the weekend, so they bought just in case.

Gold: the uninvited guest at the investment table. "Guess who's coming to dinner?" "Oh no! How very gauche! What bad taste! That barbarous relic again! This is REALLY too much!"

Good weekend to all. Interesting week ahead.

Sierra

Cavan Man

(01/03/2003; 21:04:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93366)

Dollar Bill

Your bridge has been built. She is named the EURO; a monetary model for a transitional period dead ahead by my reckoning. Granted, the EURO is imperfect; all fiat currencies are. However, the model allows for a free gold price (of course until changed by government decree). This is an old story but truer today then three years ago because, the NEED, NOW, is real.

Euro leads and dollar follows. Both will survive and gold will shine. 2 cents plain....CM

Chris Powell

(01/03/2003; 21:42:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93367)

Let's make a list for Bill Murphy's agenda

Good grief, Dollar Bill, you want Bill Murphy to devise a replacement for the world financial system? It's not enough that he should expose the fraud on which that system has been built? (As if that job has been completed already.) Well, I'll let him know, if he survives his current assignment. Maybe when he has accomplished both things he can find a cure for cancer.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Black Blade

(01/03/2003; 21:54:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93368)

US drilling activity hits new year slump

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=DriPr&ARTICLE_ID=164968
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Jan. 3 -- US drilling activity slumped into the new year, down 25 rotary rigs to 837 working this week, officials at Baker Hughes Inc. reported Friday. That was down from 883 during the same period a year ago, which was the peak number of active rigs for all of 2002. The biggest loss was in land drilling, down 26 rigs with 702 working this week. Offshore drilling was down 1 unit to 107 in the Gulf of Mexico and 110 for the US as a whole. Drilling in inland waters increased by 2 rigs to 25.

Black Blade: Should these low rig counts continue and NatGas withdrawal from storage continue at the current pace or even accelerate we should see long term tightness in supply. When rig counts were at high levels 2001-2002 we saw only a 2% increase in injection rates. Fortunately we has a crippling recession and warmer than normal weather to save the day. We are constantly told that the US economy is recovering. If that is the case then we should see severe shortages surpassing that of the recent power crisis as the economy fires up. If this winter should be normal or colder than normal we should see the shortage amplified several fold. Ramping up drilling programs will be insufficient to meet rising demand under these conditions. Pray for a deepening of the economic recession and warmer weather this winter or else be ready for much higher NatGas/electricity prices. Scratch one "economic recovery". It should get quite "interesting".

sector

(01/03/2003; 22:07:59 MDT - Msg ID: 93369)

Go for your gun....Mr. "Dollar" Bill

Let's see your best shot big guy...come on show us those big knobby, four-wheel tires!...so far all we've seen is a wimpy little trader's rant about Bill Murphy and GATA.

Let's play three guesses who the mystery "Dollar Bill" man really is:

#1 Wild "Bill" Harrison [JPM] in drag. Screaming mad and taking it to the SEC because GATA is correct about their ball-and-chain-like gold derivatives.

#2 Gumby's side-kick. Also a flat small guy and made of clay to boot!

#3 "Billy" Bob Rubin rejoicing at today's "Acquittal" by the Senate Select Committee for Transparent Leniency for Former Treasury Secretaries.

Black Blade

(01/03/2003; 22:16:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93370)

U.S. spot resids extend gains on cold front, crude

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030103/markets_energy_resids_1.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Spot U.S. residual fuels posted fresh gains Friday, riding a bullish wave kicked up by forecasts of a deep freeze next week on the East Coast and deepening concern over the Venezuelan oil workers strike. "The whole energy complex is moving higher and resid is getting swept up in it, especially down in the Gulf where they are starting to face some real supply concerns because of the Venezuelan situation," said one trader. "We heard 3.0 percent (sulphur) offered at $29.00 at the Gulf, which puts it on a par with 1.0 percent. That indicates to me they've reevaluated their supply situation and are starting to get a little desperate," said one trader. Traders said a big blue zone over the East Coast -- denoting below-normal temperatures in the region -- on the National Weather Service's Jan. 9-13 forecast was also broadcasting a strongly bullish signal to the New York Harbor market. Meteorologists predicted Friday that the cold front sweeping next week from Texas to Maine would likely produce the coldest weather seen so far this winter, giving a major boost to heating demand and power generation.

Black Blade: I have been pointing out that we would likely revisit the energy crisis before the last one nailed California. The coming crisis will make the last one a not so distant fond memory by comparison. Energy companies have no plans for significant increases in domestic production this year. The effect will be to shatter the US economy to dust. And as the US goes, so goes the world.

Black Blade

(01/03/2003; 22:22:59 MDT - Msg ID: 93371)

Utilities Ask to Bill for Security Fees

http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=NR20030103140.6_cc740003f09ceb06
Snippit:

PHILADELPHIA (AP) A growing number of utility companies are asking states for permission to add security fees to customers' bills to recover the cost of protecting themselves against possible terrorist attack. A survey conducted last year by the National Regulatory Research Institute and released in November said at least 13 states had been approached by a utility for a rate adjustment related to security costs. Natural gas supplier PG Energy is considering a similar move, spokeswoman Donna M. Gillis said. "We are evaluating all our options to recover costs related to increased expenses we incur due to tightened security," she said. The government, fearing that terrorists might try to sabotage power stations or poison water supplies, has urged utilities to beef up security at significant cost.

Black Blade: Yet another energy cost.

steady

(01/03/2003; 22:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93372)

re lets make a list for murphy usagold.com msg#:93367

Chris Powell where do i sign up to help. go gata!

knotakare

(01/03/2003; 22:58:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93373)

Mr. Bill and Dollar Bill

It must not be any fun being a Bill these days. Perhaps you could be recycled into something more usefull, like possibly gold-coin packaging.

knotakare

Black Blade

(01/03/2003; 23:44:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93374)

United cuts 1,700 jobs, closes U.S. ticketing offices

http://www.boston.com/dailynews/003/economy/United_cuts_1_700_jobs_closes_:.shtml
Snippit:

CHICAGO (AP) United Airlines announced Friday that it is laying off nearly 1,700 white-collar and ticketing employees, or about 2 percent of its work force, and shutting down its U.S. ticket offices as part of cost-cutting in bankruptcy.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" is in growth mode and now that the holidays are over it should pick up steam. No sign of "economic recovery" in sight.

Christian

(01/03/2003; 23:58:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93375)

Real Gold- Paper Gold- Credit Creation Gold

Real Gold= Physical Gold in metal form deliverable. Paper Gold= Legalized counterfeiting by issuing fake warehouse receipts on gold that does not excist as used in fractional reserve banking. Credit Creation Gold= Banking enterprise creates a fictious subsiduary in order to use that subsidiary to loan itself digital money, based on paper gold holdings of the subsidiary created to hold the paper gold. These are called loans, and in our fractional reserve system are used as assets for another loan. That loan again becomes an asset for another loan and this goes on and on and on. This is credit money where the physical money needed to pay back the loan is never created. There is no reason why individuals can not do the same thing and create your own credit and make it payable to yourself. The $350 commodity gold is presently worth $1050 in credit creation to the fractional reserve system. As commodity gold increases in value so will the credit creation value of that commodity gold used as credit creation gold. Before this new year is out Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates as fast if not faster as he lowered them because a rising gold price makes possible more credit creation on top of an already overextented credit system. Greenspan is a gold bug in his heart but his job requires him to defend the dollar. To defend the dollar he will be forced to raise rates. Right now he is making the biggest mistake in his life. The credit machine is in overdrive and the physical paper and coin supply of money is dropping against the needed supply needed to pay the principal and interest cost to make the loan payments. We are headed for a depression of far worse then the 1930's. Before spring is here banks will be forced by the FED to confiscate your savings and turn them into long term government obligations which you will be alloed to borrow against. You can borrow against your own deposits instead of taking them out.

Chris Powell

(01/04/2003; 00:02:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93376)

Steady, you can join GATA by sending an email here:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Black Blade

(01/04/2003; 00:14:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93377)

Bring Back The Draft?

Democrat congressman Charlie Rangel (D-NY) is stumping to bring back the military draft. He claims he will introduce a bill to congress next week. When asked if the volunteer army was not sufficient, Charlie said "but they're not patriots". I damn near fell off my chair. As I have said repeatedly in the past, politicians may be bipedal hominids but they are only about as intelligent as primates.

- Black Blade

The Invisible Hand

(01/04/2003; 00:17:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93378)

GWB, Saddam, JP Morgan/Chase and John Galt

Not long ago, GWB was saying: "Saddam must prove that he has no WMD, otherwise we'll attack his people"
Apparently realizing that the proof of a negative fact is a legal impossibility, GWB is now saying: "Saddam must prove he has destroyed the WMD he had once upon a time" (At the time of the 1991 Gulf War? No, then he had only Kuwait, like he (GWB) now has the land of the Indian forefathers.)

JP Morgan/Chase is now saying: "The rumors that we have problems in the gold derivatives market are untrue."
Kind of reminds me of Ayn Rand saying something Atlas Shrugged about information by denial: "It is not true that people (industrialists) have vanished (to Galt's Gulch)" Don't worry, as Ayn Rand has demonstrated, the people using such arguments are not the ones to survive for long. I wonder what they'll say tomorrow or next week when the GATA reply concerning the origin of the JP Morgan/Chase "rumors" will be all over the press.

physicalman

(01/04/2003; 01:15:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93379)

black blade

Just wanted to thank you personally for all the news and links that you provide. I don't care if your warm, fuzzy or scathing, i beleive your honest. Sometimes that can run the gauntlet of definition. I wanted to ask you about a decent NG stock (one with low debt and good upside potential for higher prices) Any links or research would be apprec.

Black Blade

(01/04/2003; 01:19:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93380)

Britain to Send 20,000 Troops to Gulf

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=MMQHQFSYCKCJKCRBAEZSFFA?type=worldNews&storyID=1989899
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain is to send more than 20,000 troops to the Gulf and mobilize 7,000 reservists next week in preparation for war against Iraq, The Daily Telegraph said Saturday. It said defense chiefs will brief Prime Minister Tony Blair on his return from holiday about plans for a mass deployment led by the aircraft carrier Ark Royal. Blair is then expected to announce the deployment in a statement to parliament.

Black Blade: Edging closer to war.

Goldrush

(01/04/2003; 01:29:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93381)

Corp lawyers may be required to report securities fraud

Topaz

(01/04/2003; 01:45:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93382)

Rand....a Gold backed currency?

With time on my hands over the w-end I thought I might look further into my supposition that Hedge instruments may ALL be Rand denominated...
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=XAU&t=ZAR&a=1&c=2
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=USD&t=ZAR&a=1&c=2
Around Xmas '01 the Rand staged a stunning reversal vis US$ and continues unabated...the only thing of substance Gold-wise these past 12 Mth's was the Minerals Bill transferring Mineral Rights to the State.
Those who follow Gold will recall Mbeki's Au related visit to Europe a couple of Yr's ago...he went angry...and came home smiling. At the time it signalled to me that something was afoot in SA and I'm now convinced it is related to this reversal.

Megahedger Anglogolds stellar performance of late (against a rising US$ PoG) and the cavalier attitude displayed by most Miners to this recent uptick is further evidence that the game has changed.
If any SA posters/lurkers can identify any other explanation for the reversal in ZAR I'd appreciate the input.
TIA.

Goldrush

(01/04/2003; 01:53:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93383)

Real objective of war not Iraq but Saudi Arabia?

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EA04Ak02.htmlRiyadh: Linchpin to a new religious order

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - With a constant increase in the deployment of US forces in the Persian Gulf , the war against Iraq looks set for February. However, the paradigms of the military build-up so far suggest that the goal of the West in the Gulf region is by no means limited to the borders of Iraq. Indeed, the concentration of forces is also well suited to undermining the resurgent fundamentalist branches of Islam and their bases in the Muslim world.

The fact is, whether or not the US overthrows Saddam Hussein, its armed forces will remain face to face with the country at the ideological center of fundamentalist Islam. That country is not Iraq; it is Saudi Arabia. And it is this divide - between Western-style democracy and Saudi-style Wahhabi Islam - that remains at the heart of the coming conflict. The majority of Saudi citizens are Sunni Muslims predominantly adhering to the strict interpretation of Islam taught by the Salafi or Wahhabi school that is the official state religion.

At present, US troops and bases are spread across the Middle East from Oman to Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the continuous deployment of US forces in the Persian Gulf has virtually established de facto US hegemony over the region. With this force, the US has not only ensured a successful strike in case of a war in Iraq, but it has also severely damaged the prospects and attractions of those Islamist ideologies that have emerged as its natural rival.

"There is a deep realization among the US policy makers that in fact there are two concepts of Islam that prevail in the Muslim world. One emerged from Najad [Saudi Arabia], and the other very recently when the Turks ruled an Ottoman empire stretching from Turkey to Morocco," a US diplomat said recently. "The Islam that emerged from the deserts of Najad, called the Salafi branch of Islam, purely finds its sources in the holy book [Koran] and the teachings of Prophet [Sunnah]. The concept of Islam that evolved during the days of Turkish rule are also based on Koran and Sunnah, but instead of taking direct instructions from the book and the teachings, this concept relies on the interpretations of different scholars and Islamic jurists. The Islamic concepts which emerged from the deserts of Najad have always been extremist, whereas the concepts that evolved during Turkish empire are very moderate."

There is no geographical divide between the two concepts, both exist in all Muslim societies. Islamist organizations such as al-Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab world, the Jamaat-i-Islami in Pakistan, Bangladesh and India, the Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan, the Jamaat-i-Islami Afghanistan, the Islamic political parties of Indonesia, Malaysia and Algeria, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front in the Philippines, Hamas in Palestine, Chechen fighters etc - all belong to the Salafi branch and all are, or have been, the recipients of Saudi aid in one form or another. It is a fact that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been the vanguard of this Salafi branch of Islam.

"Interestingly, in societies where these groups exist, there are other Islamic groups which do not follow Salafism, but instead believe in Sufism, an interpretation of Islamic scholarship in light of the Koran and Sunnah which teaches not quarrel but love. This concept evolved during Turkish rule," the diplomat says.
_____________
Good read. Maybe Iraq has to be taken first. The ultimate objective
is to change Saudi Arabia->the world wide sponsor of fundamentalist Islam. Got Gold?

Topaz

(01/04/2003; 02:04:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93384)

...further,

http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=XAU&t=USD&a=1&c=2...curiously, that old US$290 Maginot Line was broken shortly thereafter (Jan '02) and hasn't looked back since.
Maybe nothing in it as the Rand has long been seen as the Gold proxy but it sure seems odd.
If this supposition proves to be the case, the upside threat to PoG is reduced markedly.

Black Blade

(01/04/2003; 03:02:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93385)

Re: physicalman

http://www.bullsector.com/oil.html
Sorry but I don't give recommendations on stocks. But the link above may give you a good starting point for researching petroleum sector companies (oil, gas, utes, pipelines, services, etc.). You will have to do your own due dilligence though. It will link you to charts, profiles, earnings statements, news, etc. You have to be careful as with all stock investing there are both good and mot so good companies. Good luck!

- Black Blade

Belgian

(01/04/2003; 03:38:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93386)

The 6 $ per ounce Gold-Movers.....?

For quite some years now, there is the recurrent *surprise* move in POG with the same 6 dollars per ounce !? Kind of a specific foothprint. I strongly suspect this is a Physical Gold Accumulator ...a power-house !
I am not in the capacity to analyse this fenomenon, technically, into further detail. Maybe a suggestion for a smartie out there ? How many of these super-mini 6$ gaps did we have since 1996 ? And under what circumstances were they produced ? FWIW !

Will oil move for the euro-currency, once 360$/oz breaks ???
I have that funny feeling that the present circumstances are favorable ?

Belgian

(01/04/2003; 04:15:24 MDT - Msg ID: 93387)

@ Topaz # 93382

My 2 cents on South Afrika (SA) : SA is wanted under the Euroland umbrella ! Gold for euro ! The Golden euro for oil ! The rand has been managed to let S-African goldmining remain profitable and not disrupt, abruptly, new production-minima. Rand-strengthening is an indication that POG will most probably keep on rising. Euroland's underground Gold is stored in the South African Golden Arch holding another 100 years of Gold.
The euro wants to establish a Free Physical Gold Market.
Bringing SA under the euro-umbrella for more trade than already existing...needs a currency with euro-allures !

Study some of the 300 years of SA history and some light will shine as to where things might possibly lead.

Nice weekend to you downunder.

Pippin

(01/04/2003; 04:24:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93388)

R Powell - Elliott Waves - deflation

<>

That's the point. As deflation/inflation are related to money supply, a credit crunch would provoke a strong decrease of the money aggregates - hence provoking deflation. This could be the scenario.
Question now seems to be : are we facing such a scenario?

@RPowell, Topaz and Sector: thanks for not letting a newbie alone :-)

Topaz

(01/04/2003; 04:41:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93389)

Hey Belgian...

...always good to see your handle.
Look at that Rand smoke! A 50% gain in 12 Mth's eeeha! Your points are taken Sir.
You've got to feel for poor old GWB of late, one minute he's whacking Saddam, next he's got NK to contend with, then the economic stimulus package....you feel like screaming "give the guy a break...it's Christmas". Hope he doesn't crack under the pressure.

A pleasant weekend to you too.

Black Blade

(01/04/2003; 05:06:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93390)

Venezuela: Interventions 'r' US

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/123102_ven_r_us.htmlVenezuela: Interventions 'r' US

by Dale Allen Pfeiffer, FTW Contributing Editor for Energy

[Ed. Note: Remember the cardinal rule: Since the Second World War oil prices spikes have invariably led to recession. Recessions are a way of curbing demand for oil. Unemployed people buy less gasoline. And recessions never hurt the rich; only the middle classes and the poor. - MCR]

[� Copyright, 2002, From The Wilderness Publications, www.fromthewilderness.com. All rights reserved.
May be copied, distributed or posted on the Internet for non-profit purposes only.]

Dec. 30, 2002, 15:00 PST (FTW) -- Who is the United States' number one opponent in its quest for imperialism? Forget about Osama Bin Laden, George Dubya certainly has. And don't fret about Saddam Hussein, he is simply an excuse for intervention. Never mind looking down the road to see when Russia or China will step into the fray. Our no. 1 opposition is a business cartel with the power to strangle the U.S. economically. As global oil production begins to decline, OPEC could become the most powerful organization on the planet, providing that George Dubya Bush does not smash it first.

Taking over Iraq and placing the Saudi oil fields under U.S. protection would break OPEC and establish the U.S. as the premier energy broker in the declining days of oil. And the Bush Administration has been very eager to do just this, though it is attempting to keep the international community appeased while making this power play. Now, however, the Iraq invasion is likely to be delayed until we have reined in another OPEC member much closer to home.

The oil industry in Venezuela has been idled by its upper management, as part of a supposed general strike intended to topple the Chavez government. This is a strike of the rich, and the vast majority of Venezuelans are not supporting it. (1) The strike is a failure in every other respect but for the critical shutting down of oil exports. In this crucial industry, which provides most of Venezuela's wealth, the lockout has cut oil exports to a trickle.

Venezuela is the fifth biggest oil producer in the world, and is the third largest supplier to the U.S., exporting oil to this country at the rate of 1.5 million bpd. (2) Venezuela's oil production has dropped from just under 3 million bpd to barely more than 825,000 bpd. Little more than one month ago Venezuela was supplying one out of every ten barrels of oil that the U.S. consumed. (3) Now the country is having troubles just meeting its own oil demands. In fact, Venezuela has resorted to the short term importation of refined gasoline to keep its economy moving.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has called for the military to intervene in the oil lock out, echoing President Reagan's actions in the air traffic controllers' strike. And the military has acted to take control of a few of the idled tankers. But production and shipping are still down to a trickle of what they once were. The Supreme Court issued a temporary ruling ordering the striking employees back to work, but production remains stifled as oil executives continue their defiance. (4)

President Chavez will have to end this strike soon and bring production back to normal levels, and do so without giving the U.S. cause to intervene. The longer this strike goes on, the longer it will take to get production back in order once the strike has ended.

The U.S.

The Venezuelan strike has already sent up oil prices. In the U.S., oil has already gone to over $32 per barrel, with prices rising at the pump as a result. (5) If the strike continues, oil prices will continue to climb.

Look for the price climb to be led by Citgo Petroleum Corporation, which is owned by a subsidiary of Venezuelan PDVSA. Citgo is buying crude on the open market, but their refineries are geared for the heavy Venezuelan crude, and their production is being affected by the strike. Many other Gulf Coast refiners are also feeling the loss. (6)

Already faced with possible natural gas price spikes if this is a cold winter, we are also going to see the price of gasoline rise. Either one could be fatal for our ailing economy.

While Dubya doesn't seem too concerned about the U.S. economy, the oil strike in Venezuela could upset his plans for Iraq. Former Venezuelan energy minister Calderon Berti said that if both the Venezuelan and Iraqi oil supplies were cut off, oil prices would soar to over $40 per barrel. (7) Before Dubya can attack Iraq, he needs to secure the Venezuelan oil supply.

COUP

For this reason, the U.S. may sponsor a coup in Venezuela within the next month or so. And this is what the strikers want. Their goal is to disrupt Venezuela's economy until the military has to intervene against President Chavez. This strike was choreographed by experienced coup plotters in the U.S. The unions behind the strike, and the corporate media who have lied about it are financially tied to the National Endowment for Democracy, which is a cover for CIA financing. (8)

Otto Reich of the State Department and Elliott Abrams of the National Security Council are overseeing the efforts to install a more compliant regime in Caracas. Both men are veterans of the contra war against Nicaragua. It is their plan to destabilize the country and then aid a military coup. They had hoped to pull off this coup months ago, but had not reckoned on Chavez's popularity with the vast majority of the population. Since then, they have been trying to erode that popularity while attempting to turn the military against Chavez.

Now that their plans have come to impede the invasion of Iraq and threaten the U.S. economy, Abrams and Reich will be urged to either bring their plans to fruition or allow somebody else to broker a settlement with Chavez. And there are other urgent deadlines in imposing a diplomatic junta on Venezuela. Jan. 1, Brazil will inaugurate Lula da Silva as president, and ten days later Ecuador will inaugurate Colonel Lucio Guti�rrez. These men will provide a left-leaning block that could act in opposition to Washington's plans for the region. And perhaps most importantly, the Hydrogen Law will take effect on Jan. 1, giving Chavez the tools he needs to reform the state-owned oil industry. (9) The Hydrogen Law is a piece of Venezuelan legislation which will socialize more of the profits of the oil business and keep them in Venezuela for the benefit of the Venezuelan people. This is perhaps the single most important issue for Chavez's opponents both at home and abroad.

For all of these reasons, for the U.S. economy, and for the invasion of Iraq, Washington is going to seek a quick resolution to the Venezuelan situation.

OPEC

OPEC may actually step in to help lower oil prices, should the current situation go on for too long. To extract the maximum profit without putting too much stress upon the world economy, OPEC has a target range for oil prices of between $22 and $28 a barrel. Below that price, OPEC members lose their profits, and above that price, the market begins to dry up. Within OPEC there is an agreement to step up production if the price of oil stays above $28 per barrel for 20 consecutive days. (10) Let us not forget, however, that while it only takes five days for a shipment of Venezuelan crude to reach the U.S., it takes five weeks for a shipment of Middle East crude to reach the U.S. Any relief from the Middle East will be delayed by over a month.

And there are those who wonder if OPEC has the spare capacity to cover Venezuela's 3 million bpd. Virtually all OPEC countries are currently pumping in excess of their quotas. However, the current oil production is barely enough to stabilize the market. (11) This question of spare capacity will become increasingly important in the years ahead. The amount of oil in the ground does not matter if you are pumping as much as you possibly can through all of the wells in operation.

Beyond the question of production capacity, is it in OPEC's best interest to aid the U.S. in the military domination of OPEC member states? It must be obvious to members of the cartel that the U.S. seeks to undermine their power and take over control of the planets remaining hydrocarbon deposits.

How can OPEC stand aside and do nothing while the U.S. stages coups in Venezuela, prepares to invade Iraq, and vilifies Saudi Arabia while eyeing that country's oil deposits? Certainly, the economic weapon which OPEC wields is a two-edged sword, but if you are fighting a war, then you must expect to make sacrifices. However, before OPEC will become a fighting machine, it needs a leader who can bring all of the member nations to see that they are in fact at war with the United States. And that will be a tough chore.

Perhaps OPEC will wake up in time. But it is just possible that the U.S. could be in control of a major portion of the world's remaining oil supplies when OPEC finally does wake up.

OUTLOOK

If the U.S. can back a successful coup in Venezuela and take Iraq quickly, Washington will be in a very powerful position and will rule a global empire for some time to come. And this prospect seems quite imminent to those who are calling the shots in Washington.

On the other hand, if operations become bogged down in either Venezuela or Iraq, the result could very well be the ruination of U.S. dreams of global imperialism. In Venezuela, if Chavez retains the backing of a major segment of the population and the military, then we could see a bloody civil war, which could disrupt oil supplies for some time to come. The situation could become quite ugly if U.S. intervention led to collaboration between Pro-Chavez forces and Colombian rebels. We could easily find ourselves in a regional conflict that could make Vietnam look like a Sunday picnic.

Likewise, if Saddam Hussein prepares his nation for urban guerrilla fighting, then we could find ourselves fighting a war of attrition in the Middle East. In this case, the extended warfare in oil producing regions could precipitate a global economic meltdown, for which the U.S. would be entirely responsible.

For the moment, keep your eye on Venezuela. The situation there must be resolved before Bush invades Iraq. President Chavez is an amazing man, and with the full support of the people, he has thwarted several attempts to unseat him, just in this past year alone. He has also won six elections in the last four years. Hugo Chavez may retain his presidency long enough to see George W. Bush lose his.

ENDNOTES:

1. Chronology of the Strike that Wasn't, Al Giordano. Dec. 22, 2002; Issue #26, Narconews, http://www.narconews.com/Issue26/article571.html

2. PDVSA Strike to Endanger Chavez, Raise U.S. Gas Prices. Dec. 6, 2002; Stratfor.com. Stratfor http://www.stratfor.biz/Story.neo?storyId=207976

3. DJ. ENERGY MATTERS: OPEC Rides High As Chavez Sits Tight, David Byrd. Dec. 18, 2002; Dow Jones Newswires Column. http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2002121800352r0992&SA=Latest%20News

4. Venezuela Oil Strike Continues Despite Ruling. Dec. 20, 2002; Reuters. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A16998-2002Dec20.html

5. Venezuelan Strike Lifts Oil Prices. Dec. 16, 2002; BBC. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2581667.stm

6. Impact of Venezuelan Oil Strikes beginning to Flow into Houston, Monica Perin. Dec. 13, 2002; Houston Business Journal. http://houston.bizjournals.com/houston/stories/2002/12/16/story7.html

7. Washington Maneuvers Toward Venezuelan Coup, Bill Vann. Dec. 19, 2002. http://www.wsws.org/articles/2002/dec2002/vene-d19.shtml

8. Venezuela: Is the CIA preparing another coup?, Bill Vann. Dec. 11, 2002. http://www.wsws.org/articles/2002/dec2002/vene-d11.shtml

9. White House Venezuela Error Backfires, Al Giordano. Dec. 16, 2002; Narconews. http://www.narconews.com/Issue26/article565.html

10. OPEC foreshadows action to lower oil prices. Dec. 23, 2002. http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/12/22/1040510962248.html

11. U.S. seems ready to undermine world economy and political system. Nov. 13, 2002; Vol. 7, Issue 22. http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/ntn24669.htm

Black Blade: I don't entirely agree, but it is an interesting article nonetheless. Without "cheap energy" the economy comes to a screeching halt. So war with Iraq and possible intervention in Venezuela are likely.

Topaz

(01/04/2003; 05:11:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93391)

Pippin

Jump right in Sir/M'am the waters are fine.
While the bulk of opinion is calling for an inflationary uptrend, there are a few who gather here who see a deflationary collapse as the likely outcome.
The point has been debated ad infinitum by wiser minds than mine but FWIW I'm in the latter camp.
A DIS-inflationary trend (as we've been in for 10 odd years)will not be reversed easily...witness Japan. A DE-flationary "event" ie: Dash for Cash, double digit T'Bond yields, Gold Bullion, BULLION rocketing upward, Gold PAPER @ $200, will be the result if they can't...or won't succeed.

Usul

(01/04/2003; 06:49:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93392)

Gold soars past US$350 an ounce

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?id={A9736EA8-A40C-4633-8CF0-62BAF0941C96}"Market observers said the weak U.S. dollar, combined with military tensions in the Middle East and Asia, have made investors seek out the safe haven investment..."

Usul

(01/04/2003; 06:58:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93393)

Four men rob car laden with gold and jewellery

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2003/1/4/nation/jbgold&sec=nationSuch a lot of fuss over a barbaric relic!

Usul

(01/04/2003; 06:59:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93394)

US dollar faces year of living dangerously

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,630-531381,00.html"What are the chances of a dollar crash, and how much damage would one cause?"

Usul

(01/04/2003; 07:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93395)

Blodget gets Wells Notice

http://www.nypost.com/business/52493.htm"Regulators are preparing to drop the ax on former Merrill Lynch analyst Henry Blodget for helping inflate the Internet bubble with his misleading plugs..."

Cytek

(01/04/2003; 07:40:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93396)

Schaeffer Research 2003 Predictions

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/sentiment/observations.asp?ID=6851Conclusion

I do not rule out an extension of the rally that began on the first trading day of the year through the end of January. If this rally occurs, it is likely to be a major fake-out that will result in an avalanche of money flowing into equities at just the wrong time.

I expect the bulk of the damage to have occurred by mid-year or shortly thereafter, with a potential Dow low in the 5800-6000 area.

I look for a rally beginning in the second half of the year that could take the Dow back above 8000, but only if the Dow first takes out the October 2002 lows and trades down to at least 6500.

I see Nasdaq and the techs as being the least vulnerable to a first-half slide and the Nasdaq potentially posting a gain of up to 50 percent for 2003. I am most bullish on the small- and mid-cap techs � the "single-digit midgets."

I see the biggest cap names in the Dow and the S&P as being most vulnerable to major declines. Many of these stocks have attracted "safe haven" money due to their large capitalizations and liquidity and the illusion of safety. But I see these names as being "first out" of institutional portfolios on the next market leg down. These include Pfizer (PFE), 3M (MMM), Procter & Gamble (PG), Citigroup (C) and General Electric (GE).

Overall, 2003 is likely to be a very tough year for heretofore "safe" or "quality" assets � mega-cap stocks, the dollar, and bonds. I suggest "thinking speculatively" � not with all your capital but with a portion of your funds � by investing in low-priced tech stocks and gold stocks.

I continue to believe that all investors should have at least 10 percent of their portfolios in precious metals stocks. Gold has broken out to the upside technically and will be the beneficiary of the Fed's "reflation" push and potential dollar weakness. And investor enthusiasm on gold remains muted, with gold funds accounting for a smaller than average percentage of sector fund assets.

silvercollector

(01/04/2003; 07:51:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93397)

Dollar Bill

Your 93358 is a terrible post, why are you attacking Mr. Murphy? He's on our side remember.

You've got yourself into a toilet bowl big time.

Check my handle, it has changed in the last year. In 1999 I collected gold going into Y2K and then I switched to silver in 2000 & 2001. I bought into the "silver is consumed" line of thinking, there's less "above ground" silver than gold.

I was the big time 'Silvercollector'. About a year and a half ago I switched back to gold, sure I still have my stash of physical silver but I add no more.

Both silver and gold SHOULD be going up but if you've noticed silver is still 'held' below $5. Are you on a rant because you held silver during the recent gold breakout?

Rule #1 is to absolve yourself of emotion.

I collect gold in case of worldly worries.
I collect silver in case I am wrong on gold.
I collect guns in case I am wrong on both.

I WILL win in any scenario. Position yourself so you may win as well. Look at BB; gold, silver, energy, guns, food, self-sufficient, forward-looking. How can he lose?

Christian

(01/04/2003; 08:16:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93398)

(No Subject)

The FED can not monetize America's bad debts. The FED can buy the bad debt and just own it. This reminds me of a program for farm debt reduction a number of years ago. Farmers were allowed to write down 15% of their debt obligations to the bank. To qualify you had to be in debt over your head and still be in operation. Banks used the program to shift their bad farm loans to then the Farmers Home Administration. Most of those farmers never recovered and the then Farmers Home Administration ended up selling those farms at less then half of outstanding debt. I will always remember the Nelson Farm with $300,000 debt sold for $58,000. Many credit created $250,000 homes with credit created debt of $200,000 are worth $50,000 cash. As long as banks can continually "loan themselves digital money, based on a finiti quantity of paper gold (legalized gold counterfeiting by issuing fake warehouse receipts on gold that does not exist) and use that money to create fractionalized loans, which then itself becomes becomes an another asset for another loan, you create debt without increasing the money supply to pay the principal or interest. In 1997 it took 23% of profits to pay interest on loans and in 2002 it took 100%. And this is at a time when interest rates were going down. The real paper, coin, checkbook money supply is droping like a rock and credit debt creation is goin up like a rocket. Paying down old debt with new debt is not debt reduction. A home owner can exchange his equity in the home for worthless dollars but he can not take worthless dollars and turn it into home equity. The same applies with gold. You can sell your gold for worthless dollars, but it will take a lot more worthless dollars to buy the same gold back.

Hipplebeck

(01/04/2003; 08:41:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93399)

two things

One, of course the dow will go up to 36,000.
When that happens a loaf of bread will cost about $40
Two, I have heard many times that the stock market has historicslly outperformed other investments. Now, when a particular corporation goes down to where it is booted off the exchange, and another corporation whose stock is climbing replaces it, is that taken into consideration when these claims are made? It is my contention that of course the index outperforms, but if you include all the companies that have been booted off the index, you show a whole different picture.

steady

(01/04/2003; 08:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93400)

the gold bull.

http://www.sharelynx.net/goldbull.gifsome say there is a gold bull some say there is a gold bear i know there is a baby gold bull thats going to mature nicely. have a look see for yourself. when he gets older and fills out ill take another picture of him and post it.

sector

(01/04/2003; 09:14:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93401)

Company heads bleak on future, survey shows

Yomiuri Shimbun
The majority of senior executives of 30 major companies polled feel cautious about whether the economy will improve in fiscal 2003 and believe the deflationary spiral will continue, according to findings of a Yomiuri Shimbun survey.

According to the annual survey on the economy at the beginning of the year, nine executives believed that as a result of the acceleration of bad-loan disposal and uncertainties over the U.S. economy, economic recovery will be slow.

Another nine managers forecast that the economy will continue to stall, and six predicted that the economy will recede gradually. Only five managers were optimistic, saying the economy will rebound gradually. Most officials forecast that the economy will only pick up only at a mild pace, or worsen.

Most managers projected that economic growth in real terms will be about 0.5 percent, confirming the bleak outlook.

Only a handful of managers forecast that economic growth in real terms will be higher than the 0.6 percent projected by the government.

All executives predicted the consumer price index growth rate will fall below the zero percent mark, indicating they share a common view that deflationary pressure will continue.

Eight managers, the largest single number of the group, said the economy will extricate itself from the deflationary phase in fiscal 2005, followed by six who said fiscal 2004 and four who predicted fiscal 2006.

To fight deflation, most called on the government to carry out sound policies, such as structural reforms combined with the easing of the monetary policy.

Reflecting the bleak economic outlook, most managers forecast the unemployment rate will stay at 5.5 percent, which was last year's average jobless rate.

However, they also said that the unemployment rate in a single month will reach 6 percent.
+++++++++++++++++++++++

Japanese experts agree--2003 won't be a party.

Perhaps they should FAX CNBC's crack "Financial" reporters with the news?

Pippin

(01/04/2003; 09:30:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93402)

Topaz

<>

Thanks. A bit tricky here. If I clearly understand, the interest rates would jump because people would prefer to stay cash. Correct ? If correct, this would be a case where deflation (provoked by the credit crunch mentionned before) would go along with high rates, which is something I never heard of as a total newbie :-)
Another interesting point is that you see the gold bullion rocketing upward and Gold @ 200: does this mean that we would see a "two gears" gold, two categories of gold assets ? How can "gold papers" not be linked to gold in a 1:1 relationship ?
Sorry if I mix everything up.

Hipplebeck

(01/04/2003; 09:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93403)

Belgian

The Euro is only a better currency than the dollar because the dollar is at the end of it's timeline, and the Euro is just beginning on it's timeline. They are both trash paper.
Neither one is backed by gold.
Gold is money.
Not the dollar, and not the Euro.
It is exciting to watch a paper currency in it's initial phase of destruction, but replacing it with a "new and improved" model is just delaying the true day of reckoning.
Without real gold backing, any paper, including the Euro will meet it's fate.

mikal

(01/04/2003; 10:00:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93404)

@Belgium

Thank you for your thought provoking and sincere insights. It is true that much of what everyone takes for granted as fact these days has been previewed by yourself. And I know that the euro is at least as significant as you have modestly demonstrated in your many explorations and anecdotes of money, both for everyday people and for investors, corporations and governments. Your diligent updates on new developments are relevent to everyone, at times invaluable.

CoBra(too)

(01/04/2003; 10:02:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93405)

Bleak Outlook for the Economy ...

Bursting Bubbles are hardly cured by more of the same policies - Sir Allan has but a few arrows left in his fraudulent quiver.

Re. Sector's gloomy CEO Poll ...

The gloomy outlook of this poll cites some interesting points. Ranging from ongoing deflation, acceleration of bad loan disposal - would repudiation be in order? - and economic growth of 0.5% in real terms.

Real terms usually means what's left after inflation - what does it mean in a deflationary environment? More so, what does it mean in a rapid depreciation of the US Dollar Reserve Currency. Which again begats the question - against what? The �, a basket of fiat currencies or against the only real barometer of value - GOLD?

Seems to me, that the enormous debt the $ has built up in- and externally will have to be repudiated at an yet historically unprecedented rate. Competitive devaluations will spiral the "purchasing power" of all FIAT PAPER to Nirvana.

The only safe haven will once again be GOLD and other hard unencumbered assets.

cb2

PS: MK - Great show today by your Ski-Team. Bode Miller - in his in-imitable style- won his secong giant slalom and Eric Shlopy wasn't that far behind. Bode's also leading in the seasons world cup - no wonder, he's now residing in Tyrol most of the time, not to mention training with our boyz!
Nice to see the US team doing so well at my favorite sport. And, BTW I've also skied the slopes of Aspen and Snowmass (Anderl Molterer), Vail (Pepi Stiegler) and Telluride (an Austrian RE tycoon, buying up the sunny side some 30 y's back ... I remember buying some lots with a chalet at 50 Grand and selling at 350 G. some y's later).

physicalman

(01/04/2003; 10:27:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93406)

black blade

Thanks!

Rock

(01/04/2003; 10:29:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93407)

Hipplebeck

I liked your analogy how the USD is at the end of its run while the new currency Euro is on the beginning of its run but that both will eventually fail because they are paper currencies. I don't know where I got the idea that the Euro was backed by gold but I guess I was wrong. And if what you say is true regarding the Euro, I concur.

Rock

sourdough

(01/04/2003; 10:41:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93408)

R Powell (01/03/03; 19:37:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 93359)

You are right about Capiello and his "take profits".
He has never mentioned gold and any time it has been mentioned he has literally "snickered" at the word.
It is frustrating to see the way these guys choose their phrasing when they miss the moves and are 100% wrong on their calls. " I would take some profits here".
Make it appear he was positioned, but in reality means nothing. NO CREDIBILITY.
I saw the same thing from one of LOU`S other regulars on another program..
When asked why these top money managers did not call for gold the best investment of the year, he replied:
Yes we should have seen it, that is why one should have the 5 % rule in place.
Oh there a sleazy bunch, trying to make it look like they/he had been following that rule all along.
p.s. I also noticed Lou was talking about gold stocks and the funds that held them being best performers. He did not mention that owning physical was an option that has not done badly. Another tricky comment, since he knows the sheeple fear any kind of stocks right now.
If the program had investors capital and returns as their objective they would have examined the risk/reward of physical gold against holding other investment. potential percentage gains and potential downside.
That program is not geared to investors making money or retaining what they have. Looks more like a promo for the guests to make a market to sell there mistakes into. The greater fool scenario continue to be safe at Lou`s
Lot of "if`s on there last night.
Abbey was a "ifnn" away pretty hard. Nobody asked her what happens to gold ifnn her ifnn is wrong like last year, regardless of the fff ~n cause!

Cavan Man

(01/04/2003; 11:17:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93409)

INCOMING (Fiscal Stimuli)

Treasuries for sale.....treasuries for sale.......Bush Economic Stimulus Could Reach $600B

Saturday January 4, 2003 3:30 PM

WACO, Texas (AP) - President Bush has signed onto key provisions of an economic stimulus package whose price tag could reach $600 billion over a decade, administration officials say.

Aides had previously put the likely 10-year cost at about $300 billion.

Bush's economic growth package probably will include a blend of tax cuts, billions of dollars in aid to financially strapped states and extended unemployment benefits, administration officials said late Friday, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The president signed off on portions of the plan Friday at his ranch in nearby Crawford after returning from a visit with troops at Fort Hood in central Texas.

CoBra(too)

(01/04/2003; 11:22:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93410)

Debt Ceilings? ...

Quote from the "Privateer":

... are mere Potempkin delusions, if at all. The almost unbelievable atrocity to pump up the money aggregates in the US are more than ridiculing the intelligence of its supporters.

***On Tuesday, December 31, the US Treasury posted its "debt to the penny at $US 6,405.7 Billion. It just so happens that the US debt ceiling, signed into law by President Bush exactly six months previously, is $US 6,400 Billion.***

... And what now - a minimum of 300 Billion for economic stimulus, WAT, or against Iraq not counted, Homeland Security and all the other expenditures running amuck - may be just be a drop on the overall and dismal picture ... of a tiger on the tail.

Do you, too believe in the tooth fairy? I do, too ... cb2

Christian

(01/04/2003; 11:22:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93411)

Euro can be backed with 15% gold whenever they want

The Euro can not be backed by gold until the dollar is destroyed. It makes no sense to buy dollar assets with Euro's backed by gold. The Euro is doing what the dollar is doing- paying for imports with a piece of paper that only has worth if it buys something back or invests in country of origination. The Euro framers (owners) are buying gold just like the dollar framers (owners) are. The Euro will win the middle east war because we will win it for them. Take a very good look at who owns the major oil companies. Now take a look at ITERA and what they have purchased lately. ITERA now owns controlling interest in over 37 U.S. oil or gas companies. ITERA is a privatly held company with over 200 companies under its control. Just last month ITERA added a large Iraqi oil field to its holdings. By the way the Enron loot was moved via FED wire to ITERA's Florida office. ITERA holds its large cash reserves in Euro's

Gandalf the White

(01/04/2003; 13:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93412)

Sir Christian

ITERA
Please give me complete identification!!
I really would like to be able to follow your thought!!
With ONLY ITERA, I get five International companies, NONE of the statue of which you speak!!
<;-)

Christian

(01/04/2003; 13:58:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93413)

ITERA

ITERA is a privately owned subsiduary of Gazprom, registered in Jacksonville, Florida and financed by the Carlyle Group and the Osama Bin Laden Family. The Northern Alliance was financed by ITERA. They are in manufacturing, real estate development, consulting, oil and gas production and the main operator of the Central Asian Oil Pipeline Consortium. Like Enron did they do a lot of commodity trading in western countries and a lot of barter trading in their home countries that once was the USSR. ITERA home office in the USSR is Gazprom and in the U.S. is in Jacksonville, Florida. ITERA is not a public company and each of its divisions has its own web site if it has one at all. Most don't. Very secretive corporation but information on the company of many companies can be gotten off the Cyprus web site if you know how to get it. I never could but I did get a lot of information from B.I.S., in Switzerland. It's like getting information from the U.S. Treasury. I could not get in to what I wanted but I asked them to e-mail it to me and they did. I even went to the local town office to use their high powered computer and they could not get in either. ITERA controls at least 200 enterprises in the former USSR. Much of Gazprom operations is connected to ITERA. Luke oil lost a lot of their Iraqi holdings to ITERA. IRAQ will be split up and divided into parts and these parts will then be divided into surrounding countries like Jordan, Kuwait, Turkey etc. Turkey is already moving troops to occupy their part and to keep the Kurds out. The problem is the Kurds--nobody wants them. If the Iraqi leader wants to keep his head and if I was him, I would kiss up to the Kurds. If he had a heart he would resign.

Rock

(01/04/2003; 14:01:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93414)

Christian

Thanks for clearing that up for me.

Sovereign

(01/04/2003; 14:43:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93415)

Who owns the British, French and German Central Banks?

Good day.

According to an official? site, The European Central Bank is "contracted into" (owned?) by the aforementioned central banks. Is it possible to find out who, in turn, owns and really cotrols those central banks?

Thanks in advance for responding.

Christian

(01/04/2003; 14:45:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93416)

ITERA

You may find some outdated information on ITERA by looking up ITERA International Energy Corp. Also some outdated material can be obtained from the ITERA Group NV., ITERA Holding AG that operate in the cities of Aaran, Baden, Zug and Zurich, Switzerland. Mark Reich (Rich) a Bush crony operates (should say oversees) these trading operations. J.P. Morgan/Chase has many of its off balance sheet phony companies in Cyprus. There was an article many years ago where the Swiss government wanted to move these trading companies out of the country. They know the trades have everything to do with control. Cyprus has overtaken Switzerland as a place to park money. But Switzerland has better access to information. Example the English gold auction auctioned off what was once Russia's gold. They never did sell an ounce of their own. But like the Americans the British were coned out of the gold that belonged to the public that now belongs to the owners of the central banksters. Bush is a party to that. Bush and Hitler have a lot in common. Both got to power with deceit, if you are not with them, you are an enemy, and above all might makes right. Hitler got to power with Bush Family money and so the young Bush. Attorney General Ashcroft real name is ____water and his ancestors worked for the ____'s. ____water is spelled a little different in German.

Maverick1

(01/04/2003; 14:52:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93417)

FBI most wanted

I wonder if those "mid-eastern" immigrants that slipped past authorities are here to wreek havoc during the Superbowl? What city is the Superbowl going to be in? Is it an open stadium?

cyberbat

(01/04/2003; 15:33:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93418)

Do it Now!!

As a fellow member of this round table, we all want to ascentuate the positive about gold and silver. However, there may be some in our midst that want to buy more gold and silver but have been stung many times before doing so. If you fall into that category I want you to go to
http:www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/smithf010603.html
and read this column. It represents IMHO all the positive facts why gold and silver will skyrocket!!In my mind it is all about fundamentals that are presented in great detail.Just remember, our brothers and sisters will be suffering this year and we must all lend a helping hand to the sheeple where much pain and suffering will be taking place.
After you have read this piece, I want you to get on the phone and BEG Centennial Precious Metals to sell you all the bullion bars or coins that you can get hold of. Beg, borrow, or whatever to get yourself in position for what Mr. Sinclair describes as "The Storm Watch". Don't wait on a correction; call them now, while you still can get some.
Later on, if the U.S. government goes thru a confiscation phase, we need to be planning lines of communication with others out of this country. I will give them not one ounce of my gold when it happens, but we all will need liquidation methods if we too are to survive, IMHO. I'm not taking any chances with the U.S. or their banking system. Why should I. They have proved that they are not worthy of our respect ot trust. Friends will not know what I'm talking about. You do!!
Now, go act. Get your gold while you still can!!
By the way. I am in no way connected with Centennial Precious Metals but I hold a high regard of trust with them.
Again, don't wait, just do it.
Cyberbat-American by birth, Southern by the grace of God.

Sierra Madre

(01/04/2003; 15:49:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93419)

Maverick1...those five ME types that "slipped through..."

Sir, I question everything I hear or read about through the Media and Press.

Have you heard about "memes"? These are suggestions that are deliberately planted in the collective memory, where they remain until "reactivated".

Thus, there is now a "meme" planted in the US, about some ME types who are in the US with suspicious motives.

If then, TPTB decide on a self-inflicted act of terrorism, with a view to igniting the wished-for war, the public reaction will be instantaneous and decisive: it was "those five ME types who slipped through our borders!"

Presto, there you have the detonator for the next war - no amount of reasoning or investigation will prevent it.

Sierra

Skydog

(01/04/2003; 15:52:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93420)

@Cyberbat

http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/headsup/2003/0103.htmAgree with you totally. Follow the link to see what Jim Sinclair is saying about the next move and where he thinks we should be by Monday latest.

As for me, I have a Dodge Ram 3500 one ton backed up and loaded to the axles with physical, miners and June gold futures all three. Don't plan on missing this one!!!

Good luck to all,
Skydog

White Hills

(01/04/2003; 15:53:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93421)

Testing

Testing,,,,,,White Hills

Topaz

(01/04/2003; 15:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93422)

Pippin.

Get's a bit tricky doesn't it?
Monetary/Fiscal policy (contrary to popular belief) are REACTIVE persuit's to contain/control human action.
A deflationary event as aforementioned is best described thus: "why buy today when tomorrow it WILL be cheaper".
If you apply this thought across the full spectrum you'll get the picture.
What will trigger such an event?
Another/FoA (see archives) foresaw a Bullion/Central Bank crisis resulting from a disproportinate Metal/Paper ratio in the system....others identify a decreasing Bond Yield, to the point where the Risk/Reward ratio becomes meaningless, vvvwammo! Cash is King.
The paper/Bullion split will result from (during/after the "event") those holding Paper substitutes realising that that's exactly what they're holding-PAPER- and enmasse will exit the Markets....to convert whatever they can to Cash/Bullion.
Hope this helps.

Old Yeller

(01/04/2003; 15:59:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93423)

Dollar vs Euro,both fiats with the same destiny?

One major difference is trade balance,the Euro trading
area maintains,at present,a slight surplus.If they were
to assume world currency status,they could easily move
into a trade deficit scenario.The USD,if managed correctly,
could have run trade deficits of 150 billion into perpetuity,but they got selfish and greedy.Now they will
pay the price,hopefully before innocent people are
bombed back to the stone age.

It seems the ECB recognizes the dangers of self-motivated
greed and economic arrogance.The euro may be on a time
line too,but a much longer one,IMO.

I often find myself re-reading Dim Wim's speech of
Sept,2000,posted here at USAGOLD(thank you very much),
as well as MK's and FOA's interpretations of it's deeper meanings.Sure,it's ANOTHER fiat,but it's one that will
value it's gold holdings at current prices(in Euros,no less)
and appears to be deeply concerned with stability of the
monetary unit,the implications of corrupt inflations,false
credit expansions and the potential for flagrant abuse of
the privilege as we have seen in the USD example.

We're stuck with fiats now,the euro is simply better,the
premium the "zero" now commands,reflects that reality.

The Invisible Hand

(01/04/2003; 16:05:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93424)

Gold on the bike

http://www.wielerrevue.nl/actueel/meer_nieuws_sep02.htm#sep
Christian mentioned Itera NV. I therefore did a google search looking only in Dutch language webpages. The appended "article" says that Itera, the Russian gaz company, will be in 2003 the sponsor of a Russian/Belgian professional cycling team with a budget of 1.5 million euro. The "article" concludes by saying that the team starts as Trade Team 2 and want to become Trade Team 1 next year. Will they have Itera and/or Trade Team 2 on their shirts, I don't know, but what about their secrecy?. But can you imagine the gold team runner winning the Ronde van Vlaanderen (in April) or the Tour de France (in july)? What more publicity does gold need?
===
Andrei Tchmil komt volgend jaar zo goed als zeker het peloton binnen als manager van een nieuwe Russisch/Belgische profploeg. De onderhandelingen met het Russische gasbedrijf Itera zijn bijna rond. Jef Braekevelt, niet welkom bij Lotto-Domo, en Pjotr Ugrumov worden ploegleiders. Pavel Tonkov, nu nog bij Lampre in dienst, moet de kopman van de Itera-ploeg worden. Dimitri Konychev (Fassa)en het jonge talent Evgeny Petrov (Mapei-TT3) hebben ook al toegezegd bij de ploeg te komen rijden. Met Sergej Gontsjar wordt nog gepraat. De ploeg begint als Trade Team 2 met een budget van ruim anderhalf miljoen euro. De seizoenen daarop wil men graag als Trade Team 1 verder.
Terug ||Top

Topaz

(01/04/2003; 16:18:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93425)

...further (Pippin)

...just to round out this scenario, after the "event" for an interminable period, (given the state of the collective conciouness) Cash will rule, accounts in Banks will be "controlled", Printing Presses will run in overdrive, the worthlessness of Fiat currency will dawn on people and a Hyperinflationary trend will develop.
Not a pretty picture.
Usually it takes a War to distract the Masses in such times (sadly).

Sierra Madre

(01/04/2003; 16:22:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93426)

Beautiful Dreamer, list unto me-e-e...

Here in Sunny Acapulco, the water is 87 F. and the grandsons caught a large sailfish and a good sized mahi-mahi this morning.

A fella who has started a high-class residential area a few miles to the east, with very nice, lovely clean waterfront, is selling 2.4 acre waterfront lots for a modest $1 million dollars.

Let's see: $1 million dollars will buy you 195 pounds of solid .999 gold (2,857 troy ounces). I think this guy is dreaming a big dream and he has to wake up pretty soon.

I tend to convert all prices into ounces. Monomania, if you will. Everything seems so terribly expensive. I don't know if this will work for an economy in general, but for me, I know that when gold is at $20,000/oz. I MAY think of buying this and that. But not if the prospect is $40,000/oz shortly thereafter.

I think this brings us to an important point: to get the world started again - if it ever happens - will require a convincing (I stress convincing) monetary policy in place somewhere, plus a stable political condition. (Let's say, a Jacques Rueff type running the ECB plus a De Gaulle type in Germany, for starters.)

The country or currency bloc that gets these elements in place first, is going to have a head start on the rest of the world.

Sierra

Sovereign

(01/04/2003; 16:23:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93427)

Christian

Good fellow,

Do you know who owns and controls the British, French and German central banks? Since I understand that they are "independent", (read: privately owned and/or controlled) it cannot be "We the [British, French and German] People," etc. Please respond. Thank you.

Belgian

(01/04/2003; 17:13:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93428)

@ Sir Hipplebeck.....about the euro.

Yes Sir, the euro and what it stands for is indeed a very difficult concept to understand, believe and accept, that it is existing. Simply because we "all" (many Eurolanders included) have been dollarized to our very bones for such a long time. We all still wear those "dollar-glases" and ridicule European history, included monetary history . Every day I do receive trainloads of euro-incomprehension and mild scepticism (unbelief). Euro-plans are so fantastic that all unbelievers demand explicite evidence with the utmost im-patience. But as a modest man of the world...I do encounter more and more reliable evidence. Last night I was briefed on China and its evolving stance on the euro, by an objective source.
Very encouraging and "again" in line with what I'm communicating here.

The euro doesn't want to be seen as being "backed" (!!!) by its Euroland Gold exchange reserves. Gold-backing is an outdated notion from the goldstandard era. The euro wants to be the currency that is *** aligned *** with a Free Physical Gold Market !The association of euro with Physical Gold instead of the dollar associated with paper-contract-gold ! Yes, very difficult to grasp. Because it is a completely new concept incompatible with the dollar and very possible with the euro. It is because of the very existance of the euro that Gold is still trading as a paper-contract market with nothing but paper claims. If the euro had been aborted...POG would already have exploded into the thousands of dollars. But Gold is patiently waiting for its new future currency, the euro.

All this circles around the Arabian oil situation, already more than 10 years of age. Recapitulate history of the past 30 years with increasing tensions about oil : 1970-ties oil-crisis. 1980-ties hyperinflation. 1990-ties Gulf war and today's global oil-tensions. Do you really think that there is a military solution to this global growing oil-problem ?
When you think oil...one must think about a currency that is worthy of this oil-wealth. Do oil-producers prefer a debt-dollar currency or a gold-euro currency ? The massive Arabian oil-reserves still prefer everything that is closely Gold-related. The dollar isn't positively Gold-related . The euro is ! Joining the euro-concept, means bringing in Gold as exchange reserve (ECB). Not confiscated Gold but Gold to be traded Physically Free in concert with the currency. Many official statements and actions support evidence that this future Free Physical Gold Market is in preparation.

The US$ is doing exactly the same with its oil-conquest.
This struggle is marching to its climax. A struggle between two competing currencies ($/�) around two wealth-bones (oil/gold). The daily changes in $/� exchange rate is giving the scores.

When The Physical Free Gold Market is understood in relation to the organizing euro-currency...you will change your vieuw on that notion of "Gold-backed". Forget about the dollar-view of "goldstandard". This thing never worked but nevertheless existed for decades ! It will take decades before we might conclude that the euro/gold/oil concept has its flaws or is rightout unworkable. But at present we have no other choice than to do something drastic about the global monetary monstrosity.

I don't believe in the theory that the dollar can take full control of oil and therefore manage enough confidence in the $-reserve-confetti for further global trade. We are watching this all together very consciously, happening/evolving, today. 30 Years of ME (oil) control / dominance is running at its end for many different reasons.
This globe needs increasingly more oil to keep expanding...cheap oil becomes relatively scarce...other oil producers (South America-Russia) are gaining oil-consciousness. The era of the easy ruling oil-oligarchs is getting impossible by the day. The remaining Oil-reserves are going to stand up. The euro has a very close relationship with oil through the 75% of taxes collected on it. The dollar's relation with oil is much different.
Another reason why the euro has the ambition to become the new oil-currency, through Gold.

A rising POG is weakening the dollar and strengthening the euro. That's why oil doesn't want the dollar anymore and the euro will/shall become the oil-currency, attached to Gold (not backed by).

Yes the euro might be defeated for God knows what reason. But as things are evolving now...I can only see euro-succes. The remaining oil reserves will tolerate less and less domination and will without any doubt, finally land nearby Gold in one (currency) way or (physical) another.

Sorry for the lousy-unpleasant English. Goodnight.

Christian

(01/04/2003; 17:29:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93429)

ITERA

ITERA Group is presently Russia's largest privat gas and oil trader. ITERA Group like the Carlyle Group have a lot in common. Both have access to the highest government offices in countries they operate in. Both have offices right next to government offices. Of the 535 members in Congress only 3 have no connection (investments) in Carlyle. Only 5 members that make up the Russian Duma (sp) or whatever it is called have no investments in ITERA. Some indirect ways to find more on ITERA is search - Caspian oil + gas - November, 2001. Pipeline.htm - News Review from ITERA- January 2002. The Bush Family, British Royalty, and the Bin Laden Family together own about 35% of ITERA. The Northern Alliance is now in the drug growing business supplying the U.S. military with lots of dope to haul back to the Chicago Board of Trade to sell as Soybeans. Guess who financially benefits from that operation. Look no further then the very men in the whitehouse. ---____water as some spell it here is Bow-water translatted into German is ____wasser and add man after wasser. Now check out Hitlers cabinet and you find guess who? Ashcroft's real name is Bow-water is a decentant of? Ashcroft is here to protect the dead Constitution, Thanks to the patriot act and the homeland security bill. - Rothchild or whatever his name is one of many who own the Euro Central Banks. Putin family name goes back to?? Bush is 13th in line to the _______ crown. On October 1983 the United States Supreme Court dismissed an appeal for want of a substantial Federal question? "No State shall....make any Things but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts. And what does Congress do?? Elected officials so gutless, and no principal sell gold short.

Leigh

(01/04/2003; 17:42:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93430)

Monetary Policy Needs "Anchor" - Gramlich

Washington (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Gov. Edward Gramlich said on Saturday monetary policy needed an "anchor" or long-term strategy, but he stopped short of joining some of his colleagues who have advocated formal inflation targets at the U.S. central bank.
_____
An "anchor?" Like...gold??

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/04/2003; 17:52:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93431)

$14.95 retail, get yours directly from the author for $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Mr. Bill

(01/04/2003; 17:53:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93432)

@Belgian msg#: 93428 - Euro

One can always say no. Why do we have to piss away time on the Euro? Just another bogus buck. Why not cut to the chase and go with gold. Of course the boys following the plan might be a little upset. After all they get their jollies in fiat. Not to mention how easy it is to make money when everyone buys into the illusion that there is really something of value being held.

I say, drive a stake through their heart. These vampires deserve no less. Always wanting something for nothing. And giving even less in return. It is time for their time to end.

Black Blade

(01/04/2003; 17:53:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93433)

Gasoline, Heating Oil Output May Be Cut

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=1988401
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. refiners will be forced to significantly reduce their production of gasoline, heating oil and other petroleum products if Venezuela's oil workers strike drops American crude inventories another 8 million barrels, a U.S. government energy agency warned. U.S. oil inventories fell 9.1 million barrels last week to 278.3 million barrels, close to a 26-year low, as striking workers in Venezuela slashed oil shipments to the U.S. market and cut into crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration, which is the Energy Department's independent analytical agency, said U.S. oil inventories are close to what is considers "the lower operational" level of 270 million barrels for refineries. "Without more oil into the system, crude oil inventories are likely to be drawn down even further, until refinery throughputs will have to be significantly curtailed," EIA said in its weekly oil report released on Thursday. "There is little room to draw upon product inventories for any significant amount of time. This would fuel a continued rise in product prices," the agency said.

Black Blade: More critical for the US economy will soon be rising electricity and NatGas costs. With the US gearing up for war it is unlikely we will see the SPR tapped anytime soon. Meanwhile the Venezuelan strike continues and several producing fields have effectively been shutdown and will take several months to recondition these wells for a resumption of production. Some marginal wells will probably never be recovered. It could get very "interesting".

Black Blade

(01/04/2003; 17:55:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93434)

Venezuela Strike Leads to Hoarding as Shortages Mount

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&box=ad_box_all2&tag=energy∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APhWr6BaWVmVuZXp1
Snippit:

Caracas, Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- After waiting in line eight hours to fill his truck's tank at a Caracas gas station, Jose Torrealba put some of the gasoline he bought into plastic jugs and offered to sell it for 10 times what he paid. ``I'll sell half and use the other half myself,'' Torrealba, a tow-truck driver, said before an armed soldier ordered him to move his vehicle. As Venezuela's monthlong national strike has led to shortages of food, drinks and gasoline, Torrealba and others are hawking scarce goods for as much as 20 times their normal price. President Hugo Chavez has refused to allow the hardships to force him to yield to demands by opposition union, business and political leaders to quit or call early elections, and yesterday appealed for international support to help break the strike. ``Chavez is completely underestimating the economic affects of the strike,'' said Vitali Meschoulam, an analyst with political risk consultancy Eurasia Group in New York. ``The economic situation will deteriorate in the next few days and weeks, and that will soften his position.''

Corn flour used to make many traditional Venezuelan dishes is also scarce, prompting many shoppers to stockpile when they can find it. Some stores have begun rationing the staple to conserve their supplies. ``I make my orders as usual, but I don't know if they'll actually arrive,'' said Nelson Marcos, a manager at the Los Campitos supermarket in El Rosal, a Caracas neighborhood. ``There are lots of things I can't keep in stock.'' Soft drinks, beer, flour, meat, and dairy products are among goods that are becoming increasingly difficult to find, said Marcos. That has made shopping a logistical nightmare for shoppers. Carlos Dominguez visited several Caracas supermarkets in two days to stock up on food. ``I'm doing my regular shopping and building a food reserve,'' Dominguez said, as he took four liters of long-life milk from a shelf. ``I'm very worried that if the strike drags on things will get worse.'' Efraen Suzzarini, who runs a small bar in the El Valle neighborhood, says he saw the beer-shortage coming and stockpiled enough beer to last his clientele for a few days. He also scoured nearby towns until he found a wholesaler almost two hours outside of Caracas who would sell him more beer at normal cost. To compensate for the cost of renting a truck to do his own shipments, he's raised beer prices by more than double to 1,400 bolivars a bottle for take-out purchases.

Black Blade: The worst part is a "shortage of beer!!!" As always get out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

Black Blade

(01/04/2003; 18:06:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93435)

Turkey Backs U.S. Military Deployment

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=540&ncid=736&e=3&u=/ap/20030103/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_us_iraq
Snippit:

ANKARA, Turkey - President Bush is right to send ground forces to the Persian Gulf to pressure Iraq into disarming, but Turkey is wary about hosting a large number of U.S. troops, the foreign minister said Friday. "The United States is our ally but there might be issues on which the interests of allies do not meet," Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis told NTV television. "It would not suit us. Then, Turkey would become a country opening a front against its neighbor." About 50 U.S. warplanes fly regular patrols over northern Iraq from Incirlik air base in southern Turkey, where 1,500 U.S. soldiers are based. Support from Turkey is considered key to any U.S. operation against Iraq. Using Turkish bases for a ground attack would give the United States the ability to attack from both the north and the south, surrounding central Iraq, Saddam Hussein heartland of support. The government earlier said that it would make a decision on a troop deployment after U.N. inspectors checking Iraq for weapons of mass destruction release their report in late January. Still, Yakis said he supported U.S. troop deployment in the Middle East. Washington has already deployed thousands of troops to the region. "You can't tell Iraq 'disarm or else' from a distance," Yakis said. The United States "is doing the right thing by narrowing the circle around it ... and showing that there is no place to escape." State Minister Kursad Tuzmen is expected to visit Baghdad next week on a similar mission.

Black Blade: Looks like a two front war against Iraq. If the US does not attack then there are more than a few nervous countries who have given support who will fear future retaliation by force sympathetic to Saddam.

The Invisible Hand

(01/04/2003; 18:10:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93436)

Independence and ownership of the national euro CB's

According to the paper "progress Towards Convergence 1996" of the European Monetary Institute quoted by Darren Williams and Richard Reid in; "A central bank for Europe" in: Paul Temperton (ed.), "The euro", London , John Wiley, 1998, 2nd ed., 123, p.134,

INSTITUTIONAL independence means that the rights of third parties to:
- give instructions to NCBs (national central banks) or their decision-making bodies
- approve, suspend or defer decisions of the NCBs
- participate in the decision-making bodies of an NCB with a right to vote; or
- be consulted (ex-ante) on NCBs decisions
are incompatible with the Maastricht Treaty

PERSONAL independence means that the statutes of the NCBs should ensure that
- governors of NCBs have a minimum term of five years
- a governor of a NCB may not be dismissed for reasons other than that he/she no longer fulfils the conditions required for the performance of his/her duties or if he/she is guilty of gross misconduct
- other members of the decisions-making process of NCBs have the same security of tenure as governors

FUNCTIONAL independence requires the statutory objectives of the NCBs to be in line with the ESCB (European System of Central Banks)'s objective, i.e. price stability.

No third parties can thus give injunctions to the NCBs which must try to achieve the ESCB's objective of price-stability. Who owns them? Either they own themselves or the ESCB owns them.

Who owns the ESCB and the ECB? The ECB has been modeled on the German Bundesbank and has thus control over euro-area monetary policy. The French wanted however a check on the ECB. To that effect Euro-X has been instituted as a counterweight to the ECB. This is the group of finance ministers of the euro-area countries. Theoretically Euro-X could have control over fiscal policy. In practice national governments retain control over their own country's fiscal policy. Furthermore, Euro-X's room for manoeuvre is limited by the operation of the Stability and Growth Pact; the general need to reduce budget deficits further; and the views and actions of the ECB ((Paul Temperton, "Euro-X", in: Paul Temperton (ed.), op. cit., 145, pp. 145-146)

TENTATIVE CONCLUSION:
The monetary policies NCB's cannot be controlled by the national governments who cannot even control their own fiscal policies because they have to follow the views and actions of the ECB. Ownership is about being the boss and being able to tell what to do. This prerogative seems to belong to Dim Wim. Criticism most welcome.

Black Blade

(01/04/2003; 18:24:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93437)

Government bonds, gold oddly in sync

http://www.jsonline.com/bym/invest/jan03/107937.asp
Snippit:

Investors longing for a return to normalcy need only look at the oddly synchronous performance of gold and bonds to know that something out of the ordinary is still going on across global financial markets. Under most circumstances, what's good for the yellow metal is anathema to long-term debt, since gold traditionally rallies during periods of rising inflation. Conversely, high inflation seriously undermines the value of fixed-income securities, typically sending bond prices lower. During the last bull market in gold, Treasury bonds actually lost money on a total return basis over the five years through 1981, despite yields averaging more than 10%. In 2002, however, long-term Treasurys returned almost 17% while the average gold mutual fund soared 62%. In other words, gold and high-quality bonds moved decisively in the same direction. Elsewhere, stocks declined for the third year in a row for the first time since the 1930s and money market mutual funds barely eked out positive returns after expenses.

Two factors account for the simultaneous bull markets in government bonds and gold. First, the bursting of a speculative asset bubble in equities three years ago unleashed deflationary pressures that still are working to the advantage of higher-quality bonds. But even as Treasury securities booked double-digit gains, portions of the corporate sector languished. In fact, the average junk bond mutual fund actually lost about 2% last year. The reason for the strange divergence within the fixed-income group also explains why gold finally broke out of its 20-year bear market.

Recently, however, investors found themselves in a much different situation. After a powerful five-year bull market, the dollar began trending lower, thus removing what had been a dependable port in the storm. Meanwhile, the prolonged economic slump in the U.S. made Wall Street a decidedly inhospitable place. Finally, extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve sent cash yields tumbling to around 1%. Investors have to put their money somewhere, and with the dollar, stocks, lower-grade corporate bonds and cash looking unattractive, debt and gold became the investments of choice. The question now is whether the bull markets in those sectors have further to go, or if buying at current levels would be a classic example of getting in near the top. Although gold prices are up 25% from a year ago, the metal has broken out of its long-term downtrend. Supply and demand characteristics also look favorable. Gold prices would be especially strong if the looming conflict with Iraq spun badly out of control. Even when geopolitical tensions ease, the world will remain a more dangerous place than it seemed in the 1990s. That factor alone could compel investors to permanently raise their allocation to gold.

Black Blade: Add into the mix fast and furious energy price increases with little of no relief (possibly for several years), an equities market hurtling into oblivion, record levels of all debt (and rising exponentially), rising unemployment, lost consumer confidence, a real estate bubble precariously balanced on the point of a sharp needle, and a world where terrorism is a daily fact of life. Yeah, I can see why people would prefer to have some precious metal as a backup.

Black Blade

(01/04/2003; 18:36:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93438)

Police Break Up Food Protest in Zimbabwe

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20030104_563.html
Snippit:

HARARE, Zimbabwe Jan. 4 � Police fired tear gas and charged crowds with batons to quell rioting in a food line in western Zimbabwe, witnesses and the state-run media said Saturday. The clash involving hundreds of people waiting in the line was the most serious violence since severe food shortages hit the troubled country in recent months. Zimbabwe is experiencing s food crisis that threatens some 6.7 million people more than half the population with starvation. The situation in a nation once known as the breadbasket of southern Africa is blamed on drought and a collapse of agriculture after the government's confiscation of white-owned farms as part of its land-reform program. As a result of the agricultural crisis and the general collapse of the economy, long lines at stores have become commonplace with people lining up by the hundreds to buy scarce corn meal, sugar, milk, cooking oil and meat. Many leave empty handed when supplies run out. Hard currency and fuel also have become scarce in recent weeks as Zimbabwe suffers its worst economic crisis since independence in 1980. Inflation and unemployment have soared. Essential imports have been sharply curtailed, causing black market trading in fuel, food and other goods at up to ten times the government-fixed price.

Black Blade: In Zimbabwe too. Nothing is mentioned about any "beer shortages" though.

Mr. Bill

(01/04/2003; 18:41:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93439)

@Black Blade - Euro

Tell me. What is your take on the euro. Are you for or against. And why?

Paper Avalanche

(01/04/2003; 18:46:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93440)

The bigger the lie, the more people who believe it...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhcoThVJR3JhbWxpThe quote in my subject line was taken from Hitler, yet is just a true today.

Snip:

"The Fed has said it ``regards the price index for core personal consumption expenditures as the most realistic indicator of actual inflation,'' Gramlich said. That indicator shows that inflation has averaged 1.7 percent per year over the past seven years; subtracting the measurement bias implies ``a true inflation rate close to zero,'' Gramlich said. Fed officials have said that price indexes can overstate inflation by as much as 2 percentage points."

I would ask anyone who has the data to support my request to provide me with any of the following consumer items that have averaged an annual increase of 1.7% for the last seven years:

Education
Health Care
Movie tickets
Food
Gasoline
Home energy
Insurance
Housing

When you realize that you are being lied to you can then embrace the truth. The truth is that the gubmint (owned by its creditors, the Fed, since it has been in bankruptcy since 1934) lies to the sheeple and does so activley so as to have such things as the COLA (cost of living adjustment) to such "benefits" as social security only increase by the "offically reported inflation amount" while true inflation in a definite multiple of this reported amount.

My new years resolution is to post to this forum from outside the soon-to-be-US-concentration-camp in a few months.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche

Simply Me

(01/04/2003; 18:52:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93441)

@ Paper Avalanche

What do the items on this list have in common?

Education
Health Care
Movie tickets
Food
Gasoline
Home energy
Insurance
Housing

Answer: None of them is made in China

Hmmmm....
Simply

Black Blade

(01/04/2003; 18:59:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93442)

Many face cold winter without heating aid

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/004/oped/Many_face_cold_winter_without_heating_aid+.shtml
Snippit:

FOR THE MILLIONS of poor, elderly, and handicapped Americans who rely on the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program as a lifeline in times of extreme weather, this is going to be a difficult winter. The program was established in 1981 to ensure that families living at or below the poverty level would not be without heat during the winter's coldest months and could avoid facing life-threatening decisions about rent, food, medicine, and warmth. Last winter was mild, and home heating costs were lower than normal. Yet many states had record numbers of energy assistance program applicants due to the lagging economy. This year has not seen a reduction in the number of applicants, and forecasters say that this winter will be harsher than last. The first band of winter storms has already marched across the country. According to the latest Energy Information Administration predictions, households may face heating expenditure increases of 31 percent for natural gas, 17 percent for propane, 13 percent for electricity, and 41 percent for heating oil. The expected rise in heating oil costs is particularly alarming for the Northeast because we consume 75 percent of the nation's heating oil. This means that if prices rise significantly due to cold weather or reduced supply, or conflict in the Middle East, families already in economic distress will be forced to tighten their belts even further.

Black Blade: This is just the tip of the iceberg so to speak. The economy is in a shambles and energy costs are forcing many to choose between energy and food. Elitist environmentalists are ecstatic of course. Gives credence to the old bumper sticker "Let The Bastards Freeze In The Dark". Just a sign of the times. As always, be prepared for the "New Great Depression". Hmmm�

Black Blade

(01/04/2003; 19:11:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93443)

Re: Dollar Bill - The Euro

I am neither for or against the Euro. Personally I am surprised that it has apparently worked (so far). I am interested to see how long the Euro will function as a currency given that there are now 12 nations with different political systems, cultures, justice systems, fiscal policies, economic needs, etc. At some point I think that these differences will either have to be resolved with a single European government having all political control over all the participating nations thereby giving up national sovereignty or the rules will have to be in constant flux weakening the alliance. But so far I have to admit it appears to have successfully held together. The real test now is what happens as the region's economy suffers and nations pick sides over possible war and threats of terrorism. For the sake of the people and all involved I hope that they are successful though I have my doubts.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/04/2003; 19:13:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93444)

OOPS!!! I Mean't Mr. Bill

Sorry about that. I mean't to direct that last post to Mr. Bill. Ah, a Bill here and a Bill there and soon you have a lotta Bills. Just kidding.

- Black Blade

Aristotle

(01/04/2003; 19:33:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93445)

Dollar Bill #93358

I've read every word of your brief post. Four times, just for certainty.

Sometimes it's helpful to simply hear someone say, "I understand what you mean."

Buddy, I *completely* understand what you mean.

If it's any consolation to appease your frustration with this sorta thing, consider this refreshing thought about the folks who DID design the bridge, and who are letting some traffic flow during this final phase of construction: They most assuredly engaged in a design phase rich with contingency forethought that provided for a robust construction phase which could withstand the wind that troubles you so.

Let it blow, and toss your hat in the air, feeling all the better for your own clear perspective!

Now, in good turn, do you understand me?

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

The Invisible Hand

(01/04/2003; 19:39:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93446)

Still no evidence of WMD in Iraq, so let's bomb them

and threaten to bomb Korea
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2627593.stm

In a further escalation of tension aircraft taking part in US-British patrols attacked military communication sites in the south of Iraq.
The US military said Saturday's strike, on targets south-east of Baghdad, was "in response to Iraqi hostile acts".
But an Iraqi military spokesman insisted the planes had hit civilian targets.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia_china/story.jsp?story=366462

According to a South Korean newspaper, Munhwa Ilbo, Seoul is presenting a "three-stage" mediation proposal � a US guarantee of the North's security and fuel oil supplies in return for an end to the nuclear weapons programme; international economic assistance; and a multinational security guarantee for the North, including from China and Russia.
But the Bush administration has repeated that it will not negotiate another deal with North Korea, which it says cheated on a 1994 pact. "We have no intention to sit down and bargain again, to pay for this horse again," said the State Department spokesman, Richard Boucher. "We are not entering into negotiations ... to get them to commit to something that they've already committed to."
North Korea blames the US for the dispute, which it said yesterday was serious and unpredictable. Its ambassador to China repeated demands that Washington agree to a non-aggression treaty.
==
wouldn't like to be short on gold on Monday.

Aristotle

(01/04/2003; 20:05:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93447)

Belgian #93428

Trying as hard as I might, I can't see any way to improve upon the parts and the whole of your beautiful commentary.

For "lousy english" you sure know how to capture the subtle importances which are all too often lost on others. For example:

= = = =
The euro doesn't want to be seen as being "backed" (!!!) by its Euroland Gold exchange reserves. Gold-backing is an outdated notion from the goldstandard era. The euro wants to be the currency that is *** aligned *** with a Free Physical Gold Market !The association of euro with Physical Gold instead of the dollar associated with paper-contract-gold !

......When The Physical Free Gold Market is understood in relation to the organizing euro-currency...you will change your vieuw on that notion of "Gold-backed". Forget about the dollar-view of "goldstandard". This thing never worked but nevertheless existed for decades ! It will take decades before we might conclude that the euro/gold/oil concept has its flaws or is rightout unworkable. But at present we have no other choice than to do something drastic about the global monetary monstrosity.
= = = =

I can think of a short list of posters who are surely singing your praises right about now for that good delivery. I'm one of them, and jolly glad to have you around to help chew the fat.

Gold. Get you some for best *alignment*! --- Ari

Cavan Man

(01/04/2003; 20:08:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93448)

USAG93445

Now, that's the Aristotle I've come to know at this board and respect so very much 'lo these (almost) four years. Yes, it has been that long. "Who loves 'ya baby?"

Cavan Man

(01/04/2003; 20:12:22 MDT - Msg ID: 93449)

Belgian 93428

C'est bon! Holding a few Xcellent Jrs with my hand on the trigger but, "seriously folks"....."let's get physical, physical". Thank goodness disco is kaput.

Cavan Man

(01/04/2003; 20:17:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93450)

Hello first time visitors!

For any of you reading here and living in or hailing from the midwest or midsouth/south, this might be (I am speaking about the gold market) your last and best chance to, "cut a big hog" before the deluge. Don't look this gift horse in the mouth.

Aristotle

(01/04/2003; 20:30:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93451)

Cavan Man

Heh heh heh... I'm sure there are more times than not when you'd sooner BOX my ears than tolerate my spectral contributions. Through it all -- good cop/bad cop -- I'm glad you ultimately know where my heart is aligned. Thanks for hearing me through the long years!

Gold. etc., etc. --- Ari

Cavan Man

(01/04/2003; 20:39:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93452)

Cavan Man 93450

Pardon moi for clumsily mixing metaphors.

Black Blade

(01/04/2003; 21:35:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93453)

US dollar faces year of living dangerously

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,630-531381,00.html
Snippit:

IN A very uncertain financial world, there is one thing about which most people agree: the US dollar is overvalued, and on a downward slope. The drumbeats have been getting louder in the past few weeks. The price of gold has risen sharply as investors have looked for safer places to park their funds; the new year forecasts from the world's currency analysts were almost universally pessimistic about the dollar; the gloom-and-doom merchants have been dusting off their sackcloth. The only real debate seems to be about whether the currency is set for a gentle slide, or for something more dramatic. There are three main reasons for this weakness. The most important is to do with economics. America's export performance has been deteriorating rapidly for the past four years, with the result that it is now running an enormous deficit on its current account. That's no problem so long as foreign investors are happy to finance the deficit by buying more dollar assets. But if they decide for whatever reason that they have had enough, the deficit will have to shrink � by a fall in domestic demand, taking the pressure off imports; by a fall in the dollar, or most likely by a combination of the two.

Black Blade: Interesting article. The US dollar is grossly overbalued now and must devalue even as foreign currencies work furiously to devalue their own currencies. That leaves gold.

silvercollector

(01/04/2003; 23:36:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93454)

Black Blade, all

I read that article this morning and there is the other side of the coin.

What if, Germany and Japan go into a further tailspin and what if the US mops up Iraq in a 'couple weeks' and oil goes back down to the low-mid 20's/bbl?

The race (currency) to the bottom as we jest about does not necessarily imply that the dollar is the first to hit the skids.

Here's a wild, wild guess to what I feel might happen over the next 3 months. The drumbeat gets louder and louder as Jan .27 approaches (first UN report). Who knows, Hussein may blow it before that date. Unless Hussein suddenly hands over all his WMD and waves a white flag, war is on by mid-Feb at the latest. Oil and gold is very volatile until that date, oil peaking in the upper 30's, who knows, low 40's and gold breaking the 354 resistance and catching the next breaking point somewhere between 380 and 400.

Okay, let's pick a date for argument sake, Feb 8, the 'allied' forces begin bombing the daylights out of Iraq.

Now we have 2 scenarios to choose from, war goes well, war doesn't go well, depending on which side of the fence you stand.

Now here's what I read in an article this afternoon; Hussein lets loose everything he has on Israel, he whats to go in history as the man who wiped it out. All the terror that has been pent up since 911 is released in the US and its allied countries; suicide bombers, antrax, the missing 'suitcase nukes', dams, bridges, the dozens and dozens of unknown terrorist acts that are unstoppable.
The US counters with nukes on Iraq and it is vaporized in half-an-hour. Who knows where this goes, one does not really want to believe it even remotely possible.

The other outcome is a quick decisive victory by the US without complications.

The implications to gold and oil in either case is rather obvious and quite opposite. So given that you and I and a host of others are into physical (as we should) and holding interests in gold and energy companies how does one play this out?

I frankly am getting a little nervous. I am getting 'butterflies' in being 'long' in any one direction.
I am interested in how you (and others) plan to 'play' the game.

Maybe half the planet will be crystallized and it won't matter, pray to TPTB (not those ones) that this is not the final outcome.

Yours truely,

'Nervous Nellie'

Carl H

(01/05/2003; 00:35:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93455)

R Powell: Re: 93229 Devil's Advocate

Rich,

First, I really like the way you phrased it: "The game is ever afoot!" That sentence says a lot. It is indeed a game � the ultimate game. The prize is the resources and labor of the world. The only rules are those that someone can't find a way to break. We are fortunate to know that there is a game and have at least half a clue what is going on! (Thank you Bill, Chris, Reg, Mike, etc.) It keeps life interesting!

First, I will, respectfully, disagree regarding whether the POS is "actively managed". I believe it is because:
1. The Strong Dollar Policy exists and appears to mean strong against all currencies and all commodities.
2. The US government coerced Warren Buffett out of his first corner on the silver market.
3. The ~1BOz in the DLA stockpile was sold off.
4. Ted Butler has been relentless in contacting the authorities about the short position in the silver market. Yet all he gets back is static.
5. There is precedence that TPTB manipulate other commodities:
A. Short Term Treasuries (via the Fed)
B. Oil (via the SPR)
C. Many agricultural products (by forcing over-supply via subsidies)
D. Gold

Second, I believe that the analysis of Butler and Morgan are correct given the information we have. This begs the question: "Do we have all the important information?" The fake silver jewelry issue comes to mine. I think there is a big question mark there.

Third, I half agree, half disagree with you on the derivatives point. I agree that the notional value is a fairly useless number. However, I believe that significant derivative positions exist in gold. I have seen them in annual reports of several mining companies. I believe it is likely that bullion banks that were "in the know" about the suppression may also have written calls. Some of these calls will become more and more painful as the POG rises. There is the potential for a melt up if, for example, someone cracks under a margin call. However � I believe that we will never see this because the TPTB can probably handle such a situation behind the scenes. Hence, I think that POG rise will be relatively controlled.

If I read your specific situation right you are:
1. Long Dec Silver
2. Short March Silver
3. Hold a March 450 Call

Suppose silver goes to $50/Oz. What happens if the counter parties of your long and call default? I suspect that you would want out of your short position really bad.

Ok, now consider a bullion bank that has supposedly offsetting positions. One of those positions is a long where a mining company is the counter party. What happens to the bullion bank position if the mining company defaults on the position. It leaves the bullion bank in a bad position � one they might be anxious to cover.

Regarding the threat of digital photography � I think that one has to be very careful interpreting the data. The data set I have is from the World Silver Survey 2000 p55. I would like to point out several things:
1. The consumption numbers do not tell you what percentage of silver halide photography has been replaced by digital. All it tells you is if the total silver halide use is rising or falling. My personal observation has been that a majority of our friends are now using digital cameras. (Probably a somewhat skewed sample.)
2. The large majority of the silver for photographic use is used in US, Japan, Belgium, UK & Ireland, and France. They probably account for 80% of the usage. In these countries, many people already have computers, so affording a computer is not a problem.
3. The price of both cameras and printers have fallen a lot in the last year. The cameras are so cheap ($39) we got one for my 4 year old to play with.
4. Acceptance of a technology usually follows an "S-Curve". I believe we are approaching the "tipping point" for digital cameras. (I suggest the book titled "The Tipping Point" � it is quite good.)
5. Cameras are now being integrated into cel phones. (Hot item in the far east.)
6. There are now digital X-Ray machines. (I saw my dentist using one and I got to discuss the technology with him � it is actually quite simple and quite clever how they did it. Speaking as a solid state device engineer, a direct solid state X-Ray imaging device would probably be impossible to build. What they have done is use an indirect imaging technique that is very clever and cost effective. I suspect this is a technology that is early in it's S-Curve.

Thoughts anyone? (Anyone want to sell me their silver after reading this? :-)

Christian

(01/05/2003; 00:51:59 MDT - Msg ID: 93456)

(No Subject)

2003 average commodity gold price will be $467 which prices credit creation gold at $14,000. At $14,000 the credit creation gold can keep the mortgage refinancings and home equity lending going. Mortgage refinancings and home equity lending is built on financial leverage made possible by derivatives. Note that the $14,000 credit creation price of gold is made possible by the workings of the fractional reserve banking. Instead of using depositors money banks of all sizes now "loan" themselves digital money, based on "paper gold" which is legalized counterfeiting of warehouse receipts on gold that does not exist, deposit it on their account, and then loan it out. That loan becomes an asset which then becomes an asset for another loan, which becomes another asset for another loan and on and on it goes. J.P.Morgan entire loan portfolio is built on paper gold they loaned to themselves from mostly offshore accounts they created. J.P.Morgan created the BRE-X scam in order to profit from the demise of the gold stocks. They profited enormously from shorting gold stocks. I do agree that J.P.Morgan has no exposure on their gold short position because it is backstopped by the Treasury. The Treasury does not wish to start a gold short position themselves just to cover or settle its account of the trade deficit with BIS. The U.S.Treasury owes a lot of deep storage gold to the Bank of International Settlements to cover the trade deficit. The J.P.Morgan paper gold short position is just that a paper gold short position used to make loans to themselves. ALL BANKS DO IT.....GOLD IS A Credit Creation Vehicle. So is silver. The only difference is gold has an above ground supply and silver does not. I can proof that then J.P.Morgan - used legalized counterfeiting - issuing fake warehouse receipts on gold that does not exist. They do it because they have insufficient real deposits to make loans with. This is a nation wide problem that is getting worse because they pay less and less interest to depositors. Greenspan has long lost control of credit creation. Even WalMart uses paper gold to fund its credit card. When the user of that card signs the slip (receipt) he or she acknowledges the the credit creation process. The problem is the money needed to pay off that charge is never brought into existence. Nobody is printing dollar bills be it in paper form or coins or placing dollars into your checkbook to pay that bill off. The real money supply to pay debts with is falling while credit debt creation is going up. WalMart is not using their credit card to loan you money. They are exchanging their product sold to you in exchange for a future payment. To me this is still honest. But J.P.Morgan loans out money they created by issuing fake warehouse receipts on gold that does not exist. Enron did it with oil and gas trade receipts. With banking you can sell anything to make a deposit, even a fake warehouse receipt on gold or silver that does not exist. If I had a brain I would do it myself. But I am so stupid that I find slaving for the counterfeit U.S.$ in my interest. "Those who create and issue money and credit direct the policies of government and hold in the hollow of their hands the destiny of the people."

Pippin

(01/05/2003; 03:09:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93457)

Topaz

Many thanks.

Belgian

(01/05/2003; 03:55:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93458)

Sivercollector,Ari,CM,BB,Bill,Leigh....ALL

It is *Impossible* to take the "euro" out of the Gold-equation, anymore. Whatever setback it (the euro) may encounter. I'll repeat only one seemingly innocent recent anecdote : Our ex-central banker, F.Verplaetse, was lured on tele (once) in an innocent show, together with his prime minister. Verplaetse, immediately and without any suggestion towards the subject, talked about our national GOLD ! He eagerly wanted to anticipate any possible Gold-questions wich weren't on the agenda anyhow. I have some other very good arguments...simple and straithforward...but a bit compromising.

This to communicate that Euroland AND the euro in particular is Gold-Anchored (Leigh). Ari describes the present "bridging"-situation at its best. Yes Ari...I surely think I understood you very well.

May I recommend all to reread Randy's compilations/archives on CB's statements and policy outlines. There is one euro-constant : A will to obtain "STABILITY" !!!
This obstinent will is challenged, today, even within Euroland (BB) for shortsighted economic reasons, wich is ridicule. This weekend a Belgian CB-candidate did it again (liberal politician-P. De Grauwe). But this self proclaiming academic is an intellectual dwarf and therefore excellent for the political circus.

Henry C K Liu (atimes.com-Global economy) : Part 3d: The lessons of the US experience. A treasure on insights.
Very helpfull in understanding *why* we (the world) need another-anchored-reserve-currency...NOW !

The present core group of Euroland central bankers are getting the blame for the contracting economy. Politicians are shooting at the messengers and refuse to tackle "structural reforms". Liu, illustrates very well in his Banking Bunkum series of articles, where we stand now.
But Liu is afraid/reluctant of facing the possible *total* solution of the euro-concept.
The policies of the ECB and the FED are diverging more and more out of their former sync. Evidence that the new euro-concept, differs from the old dollar-concept (centered around oil/gold).

Impatient goldbugs are theory-averse and demand the long expected price-explosion of their different Gold-Holdings. Gold-Advocates watch patiently the bridge building with Physical Wealth in Possession.

Today I pay my bills in euro (notes) from the Indian Ocean over China/Australia to Hong Kong. For me as an Eurolander...the US$ is history.

In 2004, the euro will serve an additional amount of 200 million Eurolanders. A gigantic leap forward. This very risky jump would be "impossible" if the euro wasn't build on a "waterproof" concept !!! Do you understand now, why the euro is confusing friend and foo ? The ECB/BIS ivory (sorry, golden) towers "know" what they are doing !

Yes the euro is another fiat-currency, but soon sleeping with an emancipated, FREE, Golden woman. The dollar remains in bed with the inflatable doll.

Gold, the exchange-reserve, is wildly reschuffling around, from CB to CB as it did in the past 70 years. Gold is replacing former paper-dollar exchange reserves. This renewed action is taking place because of the very existance of the euro. Gold is taken *in* because dollars will go *out*. The rising Gold-Tide will lift the euro-ship and sink the dollar-vessel.

Central Banks prepare for a full blown "digital"-currency world. The dollar and euro differ totally in that preparation. That is exactly what is so confusing to all of us. Evidence for all this is difficult to detect and when it is presented...difficult to consider as such because of its pluri-interpretable aspects. I simply refer to the wide range of interpretations of the Washington Agreement amongst many other aspects !

The coming war(s) and their aftermath(s) might affect POG, relatively little. External events simply move the paper-price of Gold up and down. It is the underlying purpose for and with Gold that is of constant importance ! Gold the commodity will somehow play a little for some little time to come. But Gold the ultimate exchange reserve is building under the skin as a growing reserve. Remember A/FOA story about the chap having sticked his diamont under his skin.

It was A/FOA who unveiled the euro-Gold association. His interpretations of historical events are correctly projected into a *very possible* future outcome for Gold...Oil and currencies. And that's what it is all about...GOLD, OIL AND CURRENCIES desperately needed for structural reforms to be made possible with new monetary policies, worldwide! The *drama* has a globalized, International dimension, NOW ! Evidence abunded for this !?

davefinger

(01/05/2003; 04:14:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93459)

Short but mildly interesting interview

http://www.newsday.com/business/printedition/ny-bzwall3074307jan05,0,9408.story?coll=ny-business-printAt least the word is getting out, even if it's a little tepid. Highlights:

"...managing director of CPM Group, a New York City-based research and consulting firm specializing in precious metals and commodities. The firm is a 1986 spin-off of the commodities research arm of Goldman, Sachs & Co., in which he served as vice president from 1981 to 1986."

"Gold has probably made the bulk of its upward move, unless we see further catastrophic developments in the world. This year, gold is likely to trade in a range of between $305 and $360 an ounce, with an average price of $330."

"I like silver more than gold. Oil has had its run. But silver is interesting because its price is still undervalued, and there are indications that inventories are getting low. Silver is probably close to the point in which its continued use in photography, electronics and other applications will push its price higher. Silver's price today is $4.50 per ounce. Over the next two years, I could see silver reaching $6 per ounce."

"I don't like precious metals mutual funds. ... They're not good long-term investments because the precious metals markets typically rise for about two years and fall for six. The better ways for private investors to get involved are to buy the shares of publicly traded companies in that field or to buy bullion."

----

Seems like his views are predicated on a lack of any serious USD value/status volatility or other fundamental economic shifts. Still, he recommends bullion so he can't be all bad! :)

davefinger

(01/05/2003; 04:30:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93460)

I like this guys outlook much better

Best part, to me anyway:

Among the metal's fans are Mr. Ing of Maison Placements, who argues that gold's most important recent move was to climb above $330 last month.

"Was $350 a breakout? The answer is no," he said. "Really, the $330 was the breakout. We have a near-term target of $375, but that's not the high; I think the high this year will be $510, so we've only just begun this bull market in gold."

Hipplebeck

(01/05/2003; 05:11:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93461)

Belgian

What seems to you a complicated euro, is quite simply the exact same thing as the dollar.
When you speak of the new euro concept and how it will revolutionize gold blah blah blah, is nothing more than the world begins to price gold and oil in euros instead of dollars. There already is a free gold. I can buy gold coins with dollars now. The price fluctuates, it is not controlled by anything more than futures, options, and the perception of supply and demand. The big change you speak of is when I buy gold priced in euros. The derivative players will tie up gold in contracts in euros instead of dollars. Big deal.
The Euro is basing it's whole strength on the PROMISE of stability. Well, when it comes to human nature, need I say more?
The Europeans are jealous and naturally so, they want the world to price everything in their currency so they can have all the advantages that the US has had all this time. And they are going to get their wish because the dollar has ponzied out, and it's time for a new ponzi to begin, but it is still a currency based on a PROMISE of stability and not tied to anything stable. The Euro banksters are of course saying "Just give me the power and I will be much more responsible than those Americans", but human nature is human nature, and they will in time take advantage of that power.
gold is money.
not the dollar and not the euro

Hipplebeck

(01/05/2003; 05:30:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93462)

Greenspan and "netting out"

Greenspan has pushed in congressional testimony for a law that requires netting out of derivatives in any kind of crises.
Why?
I'll tell you why. It's because when the big crunch comes, he wants a law that allows bankers to get away with crimes.
In a crises, a player who has leased gold (meaning he owes it back), to cover the selling of gold options (meaning he owes it if called) is in the position of owing twice the amount of gold he has under his control. When the crunch comes, the people who bought those calls are going to want real gold, not paper confetti which can be printed at no cost. They are going to want physical. They have been sold someones promise to deliver and they are going to want it delivered. Now derivatize it a little further, and you have another party in who sells insurance backing the other party. Now there are three parties demanding someone deliver what they promised.
Greenspan sees what's coming, and wants a law that allows the criminals to slide out from under their contracts.
Greenspan (and his fellow bankster criminals) is afraid of somone having a legal claim to his gold.

Hipplebeck

(01/05/2003; 06:20:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93463)

Aristotle

Do you really think derivative players are going to quit writing contracts on gold just because they have to change the dollar symbol into a euro symbol?
Don't make me laugh. The euro isn't going to free up anything. Gold is already free. I can trade dollars for gold coins right now. The price fluctuates because of the perception of supply and demand. Euro symbol is going to change none of that.
The euro is a con job dressed up to look like something new and revolutionary. It is no different than the dollar.
We'll see just how your precious euro does when someone brings a gold backed currency into existence.
Someone will eventually, and it will become the new world standard. The gold standard.
Don't delude yourself into thinking the gold standard is outdated. It is outdated like honesty and truth are outdated.
Natural growth of above ground gold and silver (about 2%) is what builds a house that lasts for generations. Accelerated growth is what builds a condo that maybe lasts 30 years.
Men want to accelerate natural growth and remove natural cycles because of greed. Fiat money is just a way for one person to steal from another person.
gold is money
get you some and use it

Christian

(01/05/2003; 07:00:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93464)

Gold is money - get you some and USE IT

Easier said then done. I can't pay my property taxes with gold, nor go to a food store and buy food. As long as banks create credit by purchasing an asset like gold from a non bank, and pay it with a claim on itself, by issuing a loan agreement to a new buyer they have the power to turn $350 commodity gold into $10,500 credit creation gold with the fractional reserve system. USA can back the $ with $35,000 priced credit creation gold made possible with $1,167 commodity gold price. The problem is how to enforce it. There will always be people who find a way to cheat. What is a home mortgage?????? Read the fine print. BANKS CREATE CREDIT by PURCHASING AN ASSET (your home) from a non bank (YOU) and PAY IT WITH a CLAIM on ITSELF (your house they own) by ISSUING a LOAN AGREEMENT to the BUYER (you). In this process no money is created at all. Just debt. And that debt has to paid from a money supply that is only a fraction of total outstanding debt. Suppose you have $50.00 and $500,000 due NOW. You have no other assets that have equity meaning everything you own is not worth the claims against it. What are you going to do??? I am using a real situation of a store owner in that situation as of this day. The only way out I can see for him is if he can increase the price of the items he has for sale and be able to sell it. He can't sell it even though it is discounted. He can't even sell it at a loss. What to do????

Hipplebeck

(01/05/2003; 07:12:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93465)

Christian

You're right.
We have to start very small.
The beast is very great, but it has clay feet.
We break the feet down here on the individual level.
What does the store owner do?
Walk away.
Unless a man give up his life he cannot gain it.

Cavan Man

(01/05/2003; 07:59:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93466)

Hipplebeck

I completely agree with your assessment(s). Gold and silver were given to us to be used as real money. The unnatural velocity of fiat based economies fueled in large measure by greed will be our undoing. However, the next monetary paradigm will work or not work at least in the short to medium term like the Euro project. Perhaps a pure and honest gold standard will reign someday. In the interim, prepare for the Euro and others like it to dominate the monetary landscape. "That dog will hunt".

knotakare

(01/05/2003; 08:19:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93467)

Hipplebeck; I agree

That the Euro is an umproven currency and subject to the same inflation as the dollar. I don't see what is revolutionary about it at all. I think the currency for smart money at this time in history is a mix of gold and silver bullion and coins.

I think the Europeans and Japan/Taiwan are in a very vulnerable position. They are surrounded by preditors; a new US War Empire, Islamic extremists and a rising Soviet military machine. They rely on the US War Empire for protection. Relying on promises that can easily be broken. The Swiss and British have been selling off their gold, not exactly the right steps to insure stability.

And probably their number one problem is that their largest trading partner (US) has now embarked on the slippery slope of totally destroying their own currency and economy. There goes their largest customer.

The DAX in Germany is almost wiped out. These people are building castles in the sky.

This is just my opinion. I appreciate Belgian's analysis and enthusiasm, and I wish that he were right, that the world would have a new currency based on stablity and reason. But I'm not convinced at all. The only thing I am convinced of is that the dollar is going down, and probably sooner than latter.

knotakare

Black Blade

(01/05/2003; 09:01:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93468)

The Dollar: Soggy and Still Sliding

http://www.businessweek.com:/print/bwdaily/dnflash/jan2003/nf2003013_6876.htm?glThe Dollar: Soggy and Still Sliding

Snippit:

The greenback is weighed down by the trade deficit, low interest rates, and terror jitters America, accustomed to being the world's economic powerhouse, isn't laughing about a feeble euro anymore. The European currency, which fell to 87 cents in March, is back above a buck. At yearend, it hit nearly $1.05 -- a 17% loss of value for the dollar. Since late November alone, the greenback has slipped 6% against its European rival and now is at a three-year low. "America certainly doesn't have the attraction [for investors] it did in the second half of the 1990s," says Volker Dosch, head of U.S. equities at DWS Investment, a unit of Deutsche Bank and Germany's largest fund manager. A one-time jolt due to global jitters over the fallout from a war with Iraq? Hardly. An array of other pressures ranging from the huge trade deficit and low U.S. interest rates to the narrowing advantage in economic growth are also weighing on the greenback. Many currency traders figure the slide against Europe's common currency could be just the start of a broad decline. "The dollar needs to correct lower," says Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at MG Financial Group in New York. Many believe that the euro could rise to $1.07 in coming months. Moreover, the dollar, which has lost 5% against the yen since early December, could sink below 115 Japanese yen from its current 118. A modest further drop in the dollar probably would be good for the faltering U.S. economy on the whole. It clearly would benefit domestic manufacturers who export or who compete with imports. The combination of a high dollar and tough competition from countries with low-cost production has cost the manufacturing sector 2 million jobs since 2000. By lowering the prices of their goods in terms of euros, yen, and other foreign currencies, a lower dollar would let producers regain market share and maybe even raise prices a bit. "We are gratified to see that the dollar has been easing down. We think it has further to go before it reaches what we think is a fair level," says Hank Cox, assistant vice-president of the National Association of Manufacturers.

Black Blade: I agree that the US dollar is going to sink and that war fears over Iraq has little to do with it. The US economy is in a shambles and in spite of all the drivel from Wall Street hacks, the fact is the dollar is grossly over valued and the crushing debt in the US is taking a toll. Foreign investors are beginning to pull in their horns along with US investors and Wall Street is going to have a very rough time pumping and dumping with fewer Lemmings in the mix. The coming "energy crisis" will rip the US economy a new one if you get my drift. Equities markets have made fools of Wall Street strategists for three years running and will likely do so again. There will be few winners but precious metals will be near the top as investors far and wide panic and search for safe havens. These will prove to be very "Interesting Times".

Off to slay some fish before the weather rolls in!

Black Blade

(01/05/2003; 09:16:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93469)

Plane over Frankfurt threatens to crash into ECB

FRANKFURT, Jan 5 (Reuters) - An armed man hijacked a light plane and circled Germany's financial capital Frankfurt on Sunday while threatening to crash into the tower of the European Central Bank, the fire brigade said. A spokesman for air traffic control said they saw no terrorist link to the hijacking of the aircraft, while Germany's NTV television said the man had told them he did not want to kill anybody but himself. A spokesman for air traffic control said the armed man forced a pilot to take off from Frankfurt's Babenhausen airfield at 2:55 p.m. (1355 GMT) and had taken up contact with the Frankfurt airport tower, demanding to speak to CNN television. CNN said it was a single-engine Cessna plane.

Black Blade: Just stumbled across this. This guy hijacks a plane with a pilot. Makes a loony demand and says that he only wants to kill himself. Uh huh, the world is full of budding rocket scientists. At least he is "a man with a plan". The ECB eh? Hmmm�

Gotta set some hooks!

Genoo

(01/05/2003; 09:52:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93471)

Turk accepts the invitation and tips JPM into the tank

In the early days of January 2003, JPM management stated that "...we don't have any real exposure to gold..." The sec was then asked to investigate this "rumor"

IMHO this was seen as tres bullish for gold and suicidal behaviour on the part of JPM.

In letter #317 of this morning, in what may well prove to be the most important piece he has ever written, Turk reveals that he too has written the SEC requesting " ....whether these rumors have any basis in fact...{and if so}... to also ask for your determination whether the statements... {of JPM management}...are false or misleading."

Comment: No matter what JPM might do now..they have been hung out to twist in the wind..and largely by their own hand. Spot 380 plus here we come.

Chris Powell

(01/05/2003; 10:03:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93472)

Was Morgan Chase financing Enron with borrowed gold?

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1371Was Morgan Chase financing Enron with borrowed
gold? GATA consultant James Turk lays out the
evidence and asks the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission to investigate:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1371

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Christian

(01/05/2003; 10:07:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93473)

(No Subject)

What is a debt slave to do?? As long as banks can continually "loan" themselves digital money, based on a quantity of paper gold (nothing) and turn the loans into assets for making fractional reserve loans which itself become assets for more loans, commodity gold holding for long term capital gain is a poor investment. So what can a debt slave do? As I see it, he or she can 1- Buy nothing on margin or on debt. 2- Pay off your mortgage one way or the other, (a) pay it with funds available, (b) sell it, then pay it off, (c) Refinance to take out new equity, then sell it to bank for money owed, after you took the new equity out and purchased gold with it. 3- Become your own banker. Write your own loan by using your made up paper gold (nothing) and make it payable to yourself. It is easy. Stock traders borrow money against a counterfeit stock certificate every day and banks borrow against paper gold (nothing every day. That is how J.P.Morgan does it, and they are a high society bank. But we can't fractional reserve commodity gold into credit creation gold like the banks can. In the years to come home owners with home mortgages will find that they are no more than renters or indentured servants to the banks. Why not find a best way to use the very tricks they use on us. J.P.Morgan since its inception has used legalized counterfeiting by issuing fake warehouse receipts on gold that does not exist. Sure they have a gold short position backstopped by the Treasury. But the Treasury is using them as a way to create a gold short position IOU to the BIS to settle trade deficit account because there is no other recourse left. Paper gold is a way to legalize counterfeiting by issuing a fake warehouse receipt on paper gold that does not excist in paper form.

Mr Gresham

(01/05/2003; 10:07:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93474)

BB: "Man with a plan" (or plane)

NEWS FLASH!!!!

Hijacker threatening to crash plane into ECB HQ revealed to be ..........

BEN BERNANKE!

Max Rabbitz

(01/05/2003; 10:23:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93475)

Fed Governor Gramlich Says Inflation Overstated by 2 Percent!

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhcoThVJR3JhbWxpFrom the above Bloomberg article:

The U.S. Federal Reserve is one of the few central banks in a large economy that does not announce an explicit goal for inflation. Gramlich said that it is fairly easy to deduce that the Fed's inflation target is around zero, subtracting for a measurement bias in the inflation index it watches most.

The Fed has said it ``regards the price index for core personal consumption expenditures as the most realistic indicator of actual inflation,'' Gramlich said. That indicator shows that inflation has averaged 1.7 percent per year over the past seven years; subtracting the measurement bias implies ``a true inflation rate close to zero,'' Gramlich said. Fed officials have said that price indexes can overstate inflation by as much as 2 percentage points.

Max: A measurement bias of 2%!? I don't understand. What prices haven't they hedonically adjusted to reflect their idea of added value or available alternatives?

The core inflation rate that the FED targets excludes food and energy costs. With the exception of housing costs (rents kept low by housing bubble) much of the rest is imported, even some services (billing, records, sales) come from India and elsewhere via the internet. The inflation in medical, education, and insurance these last years has been out of control. The days of cheap imports with an ever stronger dollar are over. What will they do? Perhaps a depression with hedonically adjusted unemployment numbers (i.e., a higher quality of unemployment) or more changes in the inflation equations. There must be lots of Anderson/Enron people looking for work and willing to help out. Where's Jeff Skilling?

Mr Gresham

(01/05/2003; 10:35:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93476)

Belgian: Euro vs. "inflatable doll"

You ARE percolatin' lately, mon! That vacation sure did you some good.

We would not be discussing Euro if it were not for A/FOA, and I don't think they ever said it was a great investment in itself. Always said gold was it, and Euro was the trigger for the "re-pricing".

Euro is just something you'll write your checks in, not save your retirement in.

Why the trigger? Dollar now has competition. That's all it takes to shake a badly-run monopoly. Doesn't have to be perfectly run itself, or have booming economies behind it. Just has to be something OTHER than the Dollar, and able to penetrate world economy as its transaction currency.

I don't know how much that franchise is worth, or how much it's worth (in seignorage, effectively) to be the Reserve currency, either. Looks like another set of banks will get a chance to run with that.

And, sure, if it goes down in 30 years or so -- so what? Philosophically we all know the way things ought to be, and if people were wisely educated, they would insist on it. And we can keep promoting that education. But FOA was just telling us what was ahead just over the next hill.

And even at that, his timing was a few years early. I grant him that lapse because I was equally alarmed by LTCM/Asia/Russia in 1998, and believed things were this bad back then. The story of how they kept it all together will be a thriller. But it also stacks up more dominoes for POG's eventual launch. If they keep doubling down their losing bets, and the casino stays open, then they'll just have to pay off more in the end.

They've already bet the ranch, long ago. We're just having to wait a little bit longer to move in...

Thanks Belgian. Christian, you've been hot, too, lately.

Cleaning up "real world" problems now. POG is giving me a break, so I'm giving it a rest. Pardners for life...

Belgian

(01/05/2003; 10:50:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93477)

Hipplebeck and knotakare....en garde gentlemens !

knotakare: you > The only thing I am convinced of is that the dollar is going down...
Down against "what" Sir ? Answer : Against oil + gold + euro (and a few other currencies)! The dollar is already going down for the past 70 YEARS now ! No wonder you are convinced it is "still" going down. How can you be evenly convinced about the euro-currency's future, when it only circulates since 2 little years ?

You > They (euro-block) are surrounded by predators...
Who is threathening Euroland and with what ?

You > Swiss/Britons have been selling off their Gold...
How much of their Gold-exchange reserve is left and do you know where the sold Gold went to (BIS...euro-allies) ?

You > Their largest trading partner (US)...
Euroland is expanding from 300 million to 500 million Eurolanders. Internal expansion/growth.

You > DAX is almost wiped out...
NASDAQ 5,000 to....?

You are right indeed that the euro is an unproven currency...but on what basis do you conclude it is an ordinary copy of the dollar ? Is the US$ marking its Gold-exchange-reserves to market, every quarter ? The euro does ! Seems quite revolutionary to me, Sir.

Hipplebeck : Yes Gold is FREE for you , me and all other lilliputans ! And do you know how small in numbers and real buying power we are ? We are financial droplets in the oceans. PHYSICAL Gold is UNFREE for all Giants of any kind who wish to conclude their wealth !!! Yep, it took me quite some time to understand it myself. Want an example of such Giants ? Saudi Arabia (10 million souls) sells how many barrils of oil per day at what kind of profits...
Any idea about Chinese Giants moving from Hong Kong to Los Angeles ? They represent the third biggest GDP on this blue planet, Sir ! They have quite some excess confetti that desires to conclude their wealth also without putting them any drier for business/investment purposes.

What do you mean by : We'll see how your precious euro (thanks) does when someone brings a gold backed currency into existence ? Do you mean the good old greenback(ed) by (standard)gold ?

Present and a lot of past condos have been build with..."debt" upon debt! Who wants to pay for a condo with a lifetime of 30 years with Gold-Wealth for ever ?

In 2004, 25 countries (500 million people) will have thrown away their old currency for one single euro-fiat. Is this similar to the past dollar hegemony ? No Sir, the dollar destroyed all other currencies without replacement or compensation.

The euro promises nothing...the euro expands on an equal basis with those who wish to join !

But it is not the euro that is important overhere, but Gold.
Understanding where the euro is heading can only help in making one's own Gold-price-projections in time. So don't let your sleep for this other currency on the other side of the Atlantic, heading east anyway.
Thanks for responding and cheers to both of you.

(01/05/2003; 11:01:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93478)

Knotacare, Hipplebeck. . .Eurothought

It doesn't really matter whether or not the euro is "successful" in any ultimate sense, in that currencies are rarely successful beyond their marginal utility domestically as units of account, savings and commerce -- and then (in the modern era post 1971) always in terms of their strength against goods and services. The dollar and pound have been rare exceptions to simple domesticity and there are those in both countries of origin who would argue the distinction of reserve currency should be seen more a nuisance than a blessing. So the dreams of the EU could very well fall into the "be careful what you wish for" category. What you gain on one side of the ledger -- economic hegemony, you lose on the other -- the cost of maintaining that hegemony. If one were to quantify the price of empire going back to the Athenian owl and working forward, dreams of currency domination would be found to ultimately figure large in that empire's demise. For the amateur historian and investor both sides of the ledger need be entertained in order to understand the significance of this sort of thing to the portfolio.

On the international front, as opposed to domestic utility, I can only get this far in my thinking: The euro's effectiveness -- in terms of what it means to you and I as individual investors -- is only important with respect to the inroads it makes against its primary competitor, the dollar on the international front. Discussions about whether or not the euro is a better currency than the dollar, or vice versa to me equate discussing whether one should use tylenol or aspirin for a fever. They both work, so for me its six of one, half-dozen of the other. To the tylenol or aspirin manufacturer however there's a world of difference in my choice. And the more tylenol I use, the worse it is for the aspirin people.

I don't think that Another/FOA, Belgian or Aristotle would disagree with me that with respect to the euro's effect on the price of gold, the real debate is not whether or not the euro stretches beyond being another fiat currency, but to what degree it's viable enough to drain investment capital away from the dollar -- at whatever level of the financial world you would like to consider, i.e., individuals, commercial banks and investment houses, central banks........whatever. Then it becomes important -- practically speaking. Over this first week of January, we have been treated to dozens of analysts and pundits telling us that gold's fate is directly and inversely tied to that of the dollar. So if the euro makes the inroads, just for the sake of discussion, the dollar is thusly diminished. And gold rises in dollar terms proportionately.

The real world less than subtly imposes itself. . . .and that unless I'm missing something is the heart of the euro argument with respect to gold.

Belgian

(01/05/2003; 11:14:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93479)

Dearest Wise Gresham....

Boy, am I glad you added that final euro-touch in such elegant wording. Thanks mate.
BB could you give us a sign of your smile with the flying "Bernanke" kamikaze-humour of Gressy ? I surely had LOL.
BB : Do you really think the ECB/BIS = FED/IMF ? TIA and your opinion is much appreciated.

Mr. Bill

(01/05/2003; 11:33:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93480)

Belgian msg#: 93477 � revolutionary?

SNIP
You are right indeed that the euro is an unproven currency...but on what basis do you conclude it is an ordinary copy of the dollar ? Is the US$ marking its Gold-exchange-reserves to market, every quarter ? The euro does ! Seems quite revolutionary to me, Sir.
ENDSNIP

Nothing more than another con game. But a game that was designed many years ago. At that point in time, when it was known the US dollar would die, the euro was envisioned as a replacement. But it was also known that conditions would not permit a pure fiat currency to survive. A gimmick was needed to pull it off.

And that gimmick was the mark to market of gold reserves. Now, by allowing the gold price to double, twice as many euros can be printed. And still the reserve ratio looks good. But someone just got stuck with those extra euros. And they still get to keep the gold. This is what will drive the gold price. It is just a question of how many euros they will need.

This is just more of the same old, same old. Only presented in a different flavor. But I guess that they do not need new tricks. After all, people never learn.

GratefulForGold

(01/05/2003; 11:49:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93481)

Hipplebeck (and others) re Euro/US$

I agree with you that fiat is fiat, period.

In my simplistic understanding, I have favored the Euro only because it is offering the world a choice of fiat to use in its transactions. To me, this is transitionary...it is the beginning of the break of the US$'s strangleghold (a devalued US$) � which allows for or enhances the rising POG (or, for gold to start to attain its true value by the world's standard).

Of course, the banks who trade in Euro fiat will benefit the same as the banks who have dealt in US$ fiat, and will attempt to continue same. It seems to me that the ME situation may throw a wrench in the European bankers� long range global plans, if the Islamic peoples exert a coordinated stand and challenge the Western/European powers. If the ME (and Asia ) hold a major portion of the world's oil AND gold (via quiet accumulation), who now makes the rules?

Am I being overly simplistic?

Hipplebeck

(01/05/2003; 12:14:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93482)

gold backed currency =

a reciept for a certain amount of gold, exchangable at any time.
Just like the dollar was until 30 years ago and why it became the world reserve currency before the greatest theft in history.
First they ripped off US citizens, then the rest of the world. Who? Banksters and politicians. The club of thieves
The theft goes on. That is why the euro exists, to try to keep the US faction from stealing it all. Yes, even criminal banksters and politicians have factions that battle in gang warfare. Never forget, banking and government is organized crime. The supreme accomplishment of ideal dreams of honest money and government laid down in the US constitution has been usurped by thieves and criminals.
When the gold dinar or whatever comes into existence we will once again have an honest economic system with which to trade in. credit is not money. Gold is money

Cavan Man

(01/05/2003; 12:29:49 MDT - Msg ID: 93483)

On topic....

"The 19th century gold standard was the highest monetary
achievement of the civilized world. The gold standard was
neither conceived at a monetary conference, nor was
it the brainchild of some genius. It was the result of
centuries of experience."

Ferdinand Lips
at the Humanitarianism at the Crossroads Congress

Trapper

(01/05/2003; 12:43:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93484)

Sir Hippleback

Hip I must agree with you ( for the most part ) on your views on the euro. I see a scam operation that is supposed to be the greatest new fiat since sliced bread. I saw the the photo for an ad for the euro, here is a fellow standing in front of an opened vault door and behind him is stacks of gold bars. This would lead one to belive that the euro is backed by gold and a euro holder could get gold in exchange. Big lie. Most people belive that US money is directly backed by gold too. They have gold we have gold so what. It really won't make a difference if the euro is marked to maket every minute of the day unless the holder can CONVERT. We can't they can't. If Euroland grows from 300 million to 500 million someone is going to have to BUY a bunch of gold, do you really think that is going to happen.
The US is the world super power for one reason FREEDOM for its people. We are as a people the most productive, inventive. and Determined people on this planet. Only because we are the mosy free, but as our freedom is being eroded we will lose that place in direct proportion. Our distinct culture is being eroded by the multiculturialist. If we will keep our ideals and idenity by maintaining our freedoms then surley no weapon formed against us will prosper. That weapon can be bombs, missiles, guns, or even a new fiat. I do buy gold and use all the time in my commerce, you can get one of my muzzleloaders for paper money or at a good discount for using gold or silver to pay me with. Live small.

Christian

(01/05/2003; 12:44:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93485)

production of a gold coin worth 100 Euros

The Euro framers have a plan to produce a gold coin worth 100 Euros when it enters circulation to float along the side of the Dinar. The idea then is to let this gold coin float and let the coin value be determined by the people who use it. No amount will be stamped on it. Date for circulation as of now is the later part of 2004. The coin will be usable for payment of debt at whatever the market price gold trades at. By that I mean a person can go to WalMart in a Euro country, buy a 10 Euro item with the coin and get change back in Euros for whatever the gold is worth on that day. The framers feel it will mostly be in circulation in the Middle East and be convertible to Euro's for those people who want Euros. They also feel that Russian citizen's will also use it. I feel good about it, but seeing is believing. Why can't we do the same thing and not print a value on it for less then it is worth in metal? I would like to see a gold dollar coin worth $100 for the little people to use. Why have it written in the Constitution that gold and silver is money and then not even provide a coin usable for paying of trade? Don't stamp a number on it. Here in God we Trust would make sense.

Old Yeller

(01/05/2003; 12:57:59 MDT - Msg ID: 93486)

Trapper

The real reason the US is the economic superpower is that
they own the printing press(at present)and they employ
their $360 billion plus military machine to enforce their
monetary hegemony.

All the rest is just noise.

Hipplebeck

(01/05/2003; 13:02:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93487)

dollar is an adjective

not a noun

Cavan Man

(01/05/2003; 13:04:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93488)

Christian

Because.....we are trapped by history and precedent. I view the Euro monetary model (which I beleive the US will adopt out of necessity) as a bridge to a pure standard. You cannot turn an aircraft carrier on a dime.

IMHO, it would be wholly impractical make the quantum leap from pure fiat to pur gold and/or silver.

Belgian

(01/05/2003; 13:24:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93489)

Sir Kosares # 93478

Two different currency blocks + two different CBs (FED-IMF/ECB-BIS) + two different amounts of Official Gold exchange reserves (8,000 - 15,000 tonnes - $/�) + millions of different private Physical Gold holdings in proportion to confetti. Quite a variable Gold-palet.

I wish to know what will happen to my Goldcoins within 10...20...30 years from now. The past 20 years, Physical Gold has not showed (given evidence) of being a (practical) conclusion of wealth, permitting us in mobilizing this wealth, at any given time, for other purposes than idle storage of that wealth, falsely priced when needed. In other words, GOLD was/is UNFREE ! Unfree in providing you the right amount of confetti when needed (emergency sale). CBs kept Gold unfree and aborted/paralysed Gold's purchasing power for the $-confetti's sake. I want to know if this will end and I want to know "how" it will end. We are all free (since 1975) to buy Physical Gold but with no guarantee that the storage of that Physical wealth will serve us, pricewise, as it is supposed to serve when desired by the private holder. CBs certainly have NOT this problem with their INTERBANK Gold-dealings. This is UNFREE Gold for the people !

I am not bringing the euro up for discussion in its capacity of another currency, but in its possibility that it has a plan with Gold...the Goldmarket.
I don't expect anything from the dollar side. See how the dollar devaluated since 1945 and check Gold's purchasing power, today, in proportion. Gold is definitely at a loss.

If the euro can only succeed in bringing the dollar further down from here and Gold is only compensating this continued dollar-decline...we can't talk about a "perfect" conclusion of wealth in the sense that it is un-practical since one has to wait for the unknown revaluation-time/moment for Physical Gold to be exchanged for workable confetti.

It is to *change* the past Gold-Suppression (unfreeness) that a Free Market of Physical Gold is needed. One's conclusion of wealth must be freely exchangable for confetti and vice versa. Not only the privilege of central bankers but for all individuals, great and small, as well.

And here we land by the euro. How ambitious is the euro now and how ambitious will the euro become later ? Will the euro mark its territory with pure economical backing or has it a monetary Golden card ?

Is it the dollar that will keep on "pricing" Gold or is it the euro that will "value" Gold with setting it free ?
A very, very big difference to me ! POG exchangable for 600$ at a possible unfortunate moment (opportunity loss) or FREE GOLD evolving in a Free Physical only Market, constantly mirroring monetary management/confidence in one (new) currency in particular. Be it a new dollar or the evolving euro !? I don't care.

Is it an euro free physical Gold market or another variant of the dollar goldstandard ? It is those CBs that decide on this as long as their present/future Gold exchange reserves remain forcefull enough against concerted action of Gold Giants, getting unpatient.

Has any currency ($/�) and its CB a plan with a certain Gold Giant or not ? And if it is the euro that might trigger a free goldmarket...than the euro must be a succesful currency at its start in order to be able to become more succesful with Gold or making an alliance possible with a dollar-averse Gold Giant.

Thanks Sir Kosares for letting some euro-steam going free.

Belgian

(01/05/2003; 13:51:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93490)

Mr Bill # 93480

You > ...allowing the goldprice to double, twice as many euro can be printed...
Precisely Sir !
How much would POG be today if the same "gimmick" were used for all those printed Bernanke-dollars OF THE PAST 30 YEARS ALONE ? Thanks for having confirmed the beginning of the free goldmarket. Cheers brother.

Waverider

(01/05/2003; 13:52:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93491)

Happy Birthday Sir Gandalf

A little hobbit told me so...yes? A very Happy Birthday to you this weekend as you celebrate another year and grow even wiser...is that possible? Your Health and Prosperity were toasted last night at La Tropicana in Havana - hopefully you received the good tiding personally via mental-telepathy, pray without the sudden onset of a migraine!

Spot 'n Spike got a little rambunctious on Friday - nicely done! I just have opportunity at the moment to skim and catch the DMR - a Godsend. And yes BB, trails are both happy and extremely interesting thus far, but oh tears Leagh, oportunity for a visit doesn't present at the moment. Take care All, Cheers,

Waverider

Sierra Madre

(01/05/2003; 14:55:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93492)

Your are quite right, Christian

The secret of the beginning of a transition from paper, to real money, lies in precious metal coins with NO NOMINAL VALUE.

I can tell you from experience that people who should know better, have a very difficult time coming to grips with the idea of a coin with no nominal value. (It has to do with the cyclic decline of humanity towards the Reign of Quantity (q.v.)) Even supposedly knowledgeable individuals find it hard to visualize a coin in use, which DOES NOT HAVE A NUMBER STAMPED ON IT. - We, humanity, are no longer interested in the the Quality of a Coin, but in the Number it bears. Doubtful that this trend can be reversed, but the attempt must be made!

One way that this proposed ECB gold coin can be helped along into common use, either for payments as a last resort, or preferably as an item to be saved, is for the coin to be given a widely quoted exchange value by say, the ECB. This value, to fluctuate day to day, according to circumstances. This helps teach people the value of the coin, until they get used to it.

Sierra

Sierra Madre

(01/05/2003; 15:16:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93493)

GratefulForGold: your post 93481

"Who now makes the rules?"

That is precisely what we are about to find out, with this coming war in the Middle East.

The US says, "We've got the destructive power, we make the rules."

Islam replies: "God is Great. You want a hundred years of war? You'll get them."

Fragments of Kipling's "Recessional" come to mind...

"If drunk with sight of power we loose
Wild tongues that have not Thee in awe;
Such boasting as the Gentiles use
Or lesser breeds without the Law

Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget, lest we forget"

R Powell

(01/05/2003; 16:06:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93494)

Carl H

Thanks for the thoughts (93455).
I learned the hard way that you are indeed correct in thinking that external happenings can and do affect commodities prices. The strong dollar policy which helped support the stock market mania of the late 1990s was probably as big if not a bigger factor in the price of most commodites (and gold) than was the supply and demand part of the equation, other than extreme variations of the equation. Whether this effect should be called a consequence of monetary policy or called intentional control and manipulation of the POS is questionable.
This same strong dollar forced world demand to buy cotton anywhere except the USA and caused the majority of many commodity suppluses to end up in that country which tried to sell at the highest price (due to currency exchange rates)- again the USA. But, to date, I haven't heard any cotton farmers complain of a conspiracy to lower cotton prices. They fell from over $0.70 to $0.30 per pound with about $0.50 being the cost of production. This occured in years where production often fell and carryover did not increase.
The POG was probably targeted because it is a highly regarded indicator of inflation. I don't believe silver is seen as such but more of an industrial metal (although a monetary link with gold remains. However much tomfoolery with managing prices there was will probably come to light (thanks GATA) and will eventually fail, hopefully freeing the POG. Market forces are stronger than any manipulation over a long enough period of time (and it's been long enough!).The Fed.'s fear of deflation and the fate of the dollar changes everything.

All my derivatives games are through Comex. I do not worry about the possibility of default that you mentioned as the futures market requires margin and maintenance to assure payment. This "downpayment" is constantly on the plus side, checked daily and positions are offset immediately if funds needed are not wired (same day!). The funds are not held by either party or any broker but by independent clearinghouses. All transactions are cleared every day. Comex is an Exchange but they too do not hold the money. The game, for me, is settled in fiat. OTC deals are a horse of another color and I have no knowledge whatsoever on which to judge their safety. I gave the example of one simple position to explain why the notional value of derivatives does not bother me. It involved two futures and one long option all of which boils down to the one-time cost of the option. Notional value? It cost me about $700 plus the margin which is low for a spread position. I'm not trying to promote commodity trading which is maybe the riskiest of games. Aristotle need not get his blood pressure up; I'll be the first to recommend physical holding over stocks, certificates of gold or any trading schemes. However, I will speak out to clear misunderstandings of how these markets work.
As for Ted Butler's complaint of more short positions than there is supply, should the next buyer of silver be told she can not buy because there are too many shorts already? She can not buy unless someone sells. And if too many longs called for delivery? Of course there is not enough physical, it would cause the grandaddy of squeezes (wouldn't we love to see that!) and result in fiat settlement. If you want physical, call M.K., not your broker but don't berate the markets for functioning as they do. They work fine.
I've been wondering about the production of silver eagles which, up until this year, have been produced with government silver valued (am I correct here?) at $1.29/ounce. The cheap silver is gone, what will the eagles made from $4.00-$5.00 (or higher) silver cost?
Buy Cheap, Buy Now, Buy Often
Thoughts?
Rich

R Powell

(01/05/2003; 16:11:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93495)

Gandalf

Birthday! And you weren't going to tell us, were you?

Thanks Waverider....Happy birthday to you, happy birthday to you, happy birthday to Gandalf...
Did the Hobbits get you anything shiney and preciousss?

silvercollector

(01/05/2003; 16:15:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93496)

Bomb blasts in Tel Aviv and freak flying plane in Frankfurt....

...might lift gold at the open.

But then again we have been watching the terror business on that side of the planet for a long time.

Now put the terror on this side of the planet and we will see a different 'gold' story.

Christian

(01/05/2003; 16:16:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93497)

Caspian Sea + Central Asian Oil Reserves

Chevron, Texaco, Exon Mobile, British Petroleum, Conoco and a number of others want out of their Caspian Sea and Central Asian holdings if they could find a buyer. The estimated 200 billion barrel reserves are now estimated at 20 billion barrels of which half is of poor quality (high sulfer content). The Afghanistan pipeline construction has been junked and replaced for a pipeline through Turkey, Iran and the Kurdish part of IRAQ. This route is favorable because the route taken would hook up a number of oil fields along the way. The present Iraq wants in on the new pipeline to move some of their oil. Looks like to me Jordan, Kuwait, Kurds, Iran and Turkey are all about to get more land to occupy while U.S. troops will guard the major oil fields from being destroyed. The idea is to cut Saddam of from oil. Looks like to me the Iraqi people can choose the place to flee to.

Trapper

(01/05/2003; 16:33:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93498)

Sir Old Yeller

Your idea that the US is only at the leaders position because we some how took it by cheating the rest of the planet. Well who really should have been in the leadership position? I have the globe out and as I look at each nation I ask Oh hows about this one...no, Oh how about this one...no not them. You might have an arguement if you fore go history as when our forefathers carved this nation out it was Britian who ruled the waves and the sun never set upon her empire. But that was about to change with a letter signed by some pretty scared men sent to the King in 1776. Will we say at this place perhaps, perhaps not, that remains to be seen. But to say we are at this place only because we the US dollar has been the reserve currency since 1971 is to negate history itself.
Black Blade has actually explained things very well in his reporting on the oil men of Venezulea. There are teaching the world a very important lesson on "Who is John Gault". Much like the copper mining baron in Rand's book D'Acona I think was the name, who wrecked his entire empire rather that let the socialist squander it on the non producing people. Can the US keep the place it now holds, with the scoialist grabbing at us at ever turn one would wonder. Live small my friends.

R Powell

(01/05/2003; 16:36:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93499)

And the winner is

Last Feb. Keith Barron interviewed some well-known names about the gold market. He ended by asking each for a year end prediction of the POG...The article is titled "The Gold Rush is Here!!"

"Gentlemen, your predictions for the price of gold for December 31, 2002:

Bob Chapman: $300 per ounce by the end of the month. If it breaks $340 it will go to $525.

Robert McEwen: $350 US

Ian Gordon: $500 US

David Tice: $400 US

Bob Bishop: $360 US

Shapur

(01/05/2003; 16:41:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93500)

silver

I once heard an interesting musing:

"If one knew into the future and could forsee that on Friday at precisely 3:00pm New York time that the stockmarket would fall a 1000 points and told this to a wall street trader he would buy stock until 2:59 pm!"

When the last ounce of silver is sold and the barrel is empty, then and only then will silver make its move. Silver is not a problem until silver is a problem.

Arcticfox

(01/05/2003; 16:53:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93501)

Savoie on Silver..

http://www.silver-investor.com/yearend.htmSnip..
The long anticipated rise in silver prices, like planting an acorn and waiting for the resulting tree to become tall and big enough to build a tree house in, appears very close to happening. CFTC Commissioner Thomas Erickson resigned effective December 1; Harvey Pitt of the Securities Exchange Commission left office under fire, and on December 6, Treasury Secretary Paul O� Neill announced his resignation. Perhaps these departures have to do with desire on their part to distance themselves from the nearing firestorm in financial and commodities markets.

Cytek

(01/05/2003; 16:57:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93502)

Unemployment - As BlackBlade would say "Looking pretty Grim"

Just spent the afternoon with my niece, her husband has been unemployed for 9 weeks now. He applied for unemployment and calls an automated voice system every two weeks but hasn't gotten a penny from the State of Michigan. After talking to several unemployed people at an M.E.S.C. office he found people that haven't seen their first check, some for 19 weeks. He has now called the Senator in Michigan and has meet with him personally two weeks ago and still nothing. The Senator claims they are closing offices due to budget cuts and are trying to automate the system. My question is these people have paid into the system for years, in my nieces husbands case 13years without a layoff and can't collect a thing. Looks like something is definately up with the State. Wonder if were going to start hearing more stories in other States?

Cytek

Carl H

(01/05/2003; 17:31:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93503)

Spot

GO SPOT GO!!!

Sundeck

(01/05/2003; 17:32:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93504)

Spot

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlSpot leaping and howling...$354 looks likely

cyberbat

(01/05/2003; 17:49:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93505)

Spotacus

At 353.30 and getting frisky again. We're all going to be rich beyond our wildest dreams!! Heh, heh; just kidding.

Cavan Man

(01/05/2003; 18:03:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93506)

For my friend Sierra (he of the Madre)

Recessional
God of our fathers, known of old--
Lord of our far-flung battle line
Beneath whose awful hand we hold
Dominion over palm and pine--
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget - lest we forget!

The tumult and the shouting dies;
The captains and the kings depart:
Still stands Thine ancient sacrifice,
An humble and a contrite heart.
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget - lest we forget!

Far-called, our navies melt away;
On dune and headland sinks the fire:
Lo, all our pomp of yesterday
Is one with Nineveh and Tyre!
Judge of the Nations, spare us yet,
Lest we forget - lest we forget!

If, drunk with sight of power, we loose
Wild tongues that have not Thee in awe--
Such boasting as the Gentiles use
Or lesser breeds without the law--
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget - lest we forget!

For heathen heart that puts her trust
In reeking tube and iron shard--
All valiant dust that builds on dust,
And guarding, calls not Thee to guard--
For frantic boast and foolish word,
Thy mercy on Thy people, Lord!

Rudyard Kipling

goldquest

(01/05/2003; 18:14:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93507)

@cyberbat message #93505

No Kidding Allowed! I feel it is our turn for a change. Many of us have played and suffered the PMs game for a long time. In my case, since about 1986! Talk about getting in early! Seriously, I wish the very best and riches for all of us that believe in the GOLDEN dream! Besides, I would like to buy my Beech Baron this spring! Best wishes, goldquest

Carl H

(01/05/2003; 18:25:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93508)

R Powell: Cotton

I wanted to respond to your comment on cotton. About 2 years ago I started wondering if there was more to the strong dollar policy than just gold shenanigans. Hence, I asked myself the question, how would I implement a strong dollar policy if I were TPTB. The suppression of commodity prices and currency exchange rates were what I concluded would be needed. So I started examining a number of commodities. My examination consisted first of thinking about the nature of the commodity, particularly supply/demand curves, availability of new production, and stockpiles. For crops my conclusion was that a dose of subsidies that is modest compared to the worth of the crop produced can cause an over supply which keeps the commodity priced around the cost of production rather than what it is worth to the consumer. Incidentally, in the late Clinton years there was a large increase in farm subsidies (~2X, if memory serves me).

As far as why no cotton farmers are complaining � it is a case of each one of them feeling good for getting their little subsidy check from the government. What they don't realize is that they collectively would make more if they were weaned off the subsidies.

Incidentally, generally, I am a proponent of free markets � however, in the case of food crops, I believe that forcing an oversupply might be a good thing since undersupply is a really bad thing and cannot be very quickly corrected. (Takes time for the stuff to grow.)

Finally, you commented: "Market forces are stronger than any manipulation over a long enough period of time " Unfortunately this is not necessarily true. Market forces are neutral -- they neither inherently support or inherently resist manipulation. In fact, the most successful way to manipulate a market is to work with the market forces. Subsidies do exactly that. Gold is another matter. In the case of gold they are working against the market forces. I believe they will fail, but keep in mind that they have kept it up for probably about 20 years. As you say, long enough.

Gimli_

(01/05/2003; 18:25:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93509)

Precious Metals used in Integrated Circuits

http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/Article2.asp?datePublish=2002/12/27&pages=06&seq=25Ferro claims breakthrough in MLCC material costs
Hans Wu, Taipei; Jane Wang, DigiTimes.com

Ferro, the world's largest MLCC (multi-layer ceramic capacitor) powder materials supplier, said in 2003 it will be able to provide a pure silver powder that can replace palladium and reduce two-thirds of costs for NPO products.

To make 100 kilograms of NPO MLCC products requires 90 kilograms of ceramic dielectric powder, nine kilograms of silver powder and one kilogram of palladium. The palladium would cost US$9,000, by far outweighing the costs of the other materials, at US$2,250 for the ceramic dielectric powder and US$1,350 for the silver powder. The US-based powder materials supplier claimed its pure silver powder would eliminate the US$9,000 for palladium and only nudge up the cost of silver powder to US$1,500, saving total costs for 100 kilograms of NPO MLCC products by two-thirds.

cyberbat

(01/05/2003; 18:26:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93510)

@Godquest

I agree. I've been snookered and false alarmed now myself since 1986. I do have my mind on a 53' corvette reproduction. Seriously though, I am worried about my friends, neighbors, and relatives that just don't want to listen to me anymore about the subject of gold. They accuse me of "crying wolf" to many years and now I can't seem to make any penetration into their uncommon sense. I guess I don't blame them, but I still intend to try and help them when the "Sinclair Storms" arrive. I really worry about them, but what can one do. I'm so paranoid now that I'm almost afraid to leave my money in the banks now.
I'm positioned now with physicals and mutual gold funds (Fidelity and Vanguard) and want more. If I hadn't been stung so many times I would buy 50'000.00 of physicals right now. Guess I'll have to be satisfied with what I have. Just hope it goes far enough for me and the others I care about!

silvercollector

(01/05/2003; 19:01:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93511)

Second crack at 354 tonight....

For anyone keeping count of the cracks at 330 here's a look from historical graphs of spot (Kitco)

May 29,2002 327.30 8:05am (eastern)

May 31,2002 329.20 7:50am

June 4, 2002 329.90 2:00am, 5:00am

These few days saw multiple assaults at 325/328/330. Exciting days.

June 24, 2002 327.20 4:00am

July 21, 2002 326.60 8:00pm

Sept. 9, 2002 324.80 9:30am

Sept. 24, 2002 327.80 9:30am

Nov. 13, 2002 324.50 8:30am

Gold began its last assault on 325/328/330 on Dec. 5

Dec. 6, 2002 328.60 9:30am

Dec. 12, liftoff from 326.60 10:15 to 333 @ high noon.

Dec. 13 saw intra-day high of 335.50

Dec. 16 saw 339.10

Dec. 17 saw 341.50

Dec. 18 first crack at 354/355.

Jan. 5 second crack at 354/355

I am posting this to illustrate the several attempts to break resistance of the 325/328/330 level. It took 6 months.

This in no ways means that 354/355 will behave the same.

Good luck!!

Farfel

(01/05/2003; 19:02:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93512)

Thank you.......

Although I have not been feeling well lately, I wish to thank the many posters on USA Gold plus other gold forums for the good wishes they sent my way.

It is difficult to keep "a gold dog" down, so I am adding another weapon today to the growing arsenal necessary to liberate gold investments from the artificial suppression of its conspiratorial antagonists.

Thank you again.

Cytek

(01/05/2003; 19:08:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93513)

JPM to cover their Short Position

A friend of mine heard from a Broker in NY that the Fed is loaning JPM federal gold to cover their short position. However, it is just a rumor, nothing confirmed yet. The question is, is it enough to cover their entire position.As they say, JPM is too big to fail. Still, it would mean the banks would be covering and not trying to short gold down anymore if they have to get bailed out.

If the rumor is true then it is a partial bailout, enough to contend with the crisis at hand. The question is, how high with the covering push the POG up. Barrick's hedgebook has got to be underwater about now. I believe some crisis news about hedgebooks will be coming out soon at $354 gold. Next week should be interesting, there could be the start of some panic buying of both bullion and Mining stocks. Mergers are going to happen, their "back door" covering strategy. Tuesday will also be interesting with Pres Bush's tax plan, this could rally the markets short term and then i think re-test September lows. How about March Gold at $400 and Silver at $8.

Cytek

(01/05/2003; 19:09:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93514)

Farfel. . .

May I be among the many who have publicly thanked you for the courageous effort you have made in behalf of gold, its advocates and owners. Many times you have been an inspiration to me and countless others. You are a good man, Farfel, and you never shrunk from the din of battle. I salute you, my friend. May God bless and keep you, and as the Irish say, "May the good Lord hold you in the palm of his hand."

Farfel

(01/05/2003; 19:12:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93515)

Attention Enron Investors: Let Brothers in Arms Unite!

Exclusive for USA Gold.......................

With his usual brilliant analysis, James Turk recently challenged the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate the gold loan exposure of JP Morgan Chase. However, unfortunately, I am not particularly optimistic that Turk's efforts will inspire the SEC to conduct a proper due diligence examination of JP Morgan and its apparently labyrinthine gold derivatives structure.

First, the SEC has a miserable track record of proactive strategies to preclude malfeasance in the markets. Where was Arthur Levitt's SEC during the height of internet mania? Why did the agency sit upon its hands whilst the most egregious financial scams in American history were perpetrated upon the American investing public? One can only surmise that there were some very powerful vested interests on The Street who have influence over the SEC....and they were far too busy promoting hot air financial vehicles and accumulating windfall profits to allow the SEC to spoil the party. For example, do you think Goldman Sachs wanted the party to end any time soon when it could provide EBAY honcho, Meg Whitman, stock in some 100 high tech IPO's in exchange for her company's business? Even to this day, the SEC has failed to take appropriate sanctions against Ms. Whitman. Yet, utilizing her corporate position for her own personal financial gain without any revelation of her profiteering nor distribution of her profits, she effectively "robbed" her own shareholders ...and her corporate malfeasance makes Martha Stewart's one time incident of insider trading appear to be no more than a schoolgirl prank, by comparison. Of course, as a now former director of Goldman Sachs, Meg Whitman is keenly aware of what gold investors have known for some time: it sure helps to have friends at Goldman when it comes to operating outside the boundaries of proper acceptable conduct in the marketplace.

Secondly, since the revelation of the Enron fraud, what has the SEC done with respect to Enron's major executive culprits, Mr. Skilling and Mr. Lay? Why is the entire Enron investigation relegated to the back pages of the financial newspapers, if it is even mentioned at all anymore? Why hasn't the SEC intervened to examine the settlement reached privately by JP Morgan and the insurers of its offshore "disguised loans" in order to determine whether such a settlement is really in the best interests of Enron's shareholders?

Thirdly, with the appointment of long time Wall Street veteran, William Donaldson, to head the "new" SEC, are we really to believe that the agency will mount a voluntary and vigorous investigation into Street goliath, JP Morgan Chase? How can a man with personal and business relationships formed all over The Street be the right person to conduct a truly unrelenting, hard core examination of the investment bank, JP Morgan...especially given that JP Morgan's many counterparties consist of a Who's Who of Wall Street firms and given that JP Morgan happens to be a principal of the US Federal Reserve? Excuse me if I do not believe Mr. Donaldson is sufficiently independent of Street influences to scrutinze properly the gold derivatives book of JP Morgan.

Fourthly, since JP Morgan utilized offshore vehicles in its various scam trades with Enron, then just how effective can the SEC be in terms of examining the investment firm's activities outside the jurisdiction of the United States? When JP Morgan states that it has no real exposure to gold loans, is that simply another "Clintonian" word game, where "it all depends upon what the definition of "has" is? Is it conceivable that JP Morgan has hidden most of its gold loan activity through offshore shell corporations in much the same manner that it hid its oil and gas trades with Enron? Is it not reasonable to assume that if a corporation utilized a particular strategy (offshore trading) for a lengthy period of time with some success then it would continue to utilize that same strategy with respect to ALL its various business activities? If the SEC is to probe the JP Morgan gold book, it MUST demand to see a schematic of all related offshore entities. Then, the SEC must pour over the books of each and every offshore vehicle in order to determine JP Morgan's "real" exposure to the gold market.

I applaud Mr. Turk and GATA for launching a counterattack against JP Morgan and its allegations of
unfounded negative rumors concerning its exposure to gold derivatives. However, I humbly suggest that the methodology is wrong and that a grass roots approach would be much more effective.

The people who most likely desire a full revelation of the JP Morgan gold book are those who have been hurt by it the most. Those constituent members fall into two camps: gold investors and ENRON investors. Both groups share one thing in common...they are both victims of covert, nefarious actions by Establishment cronies who conspired to self-enrich at the expense of
small investors who remained outside the loop. In effect, although most ENRON investors would likely describe themselves as stock market and US dollar bulls, the reality is that ENRON investors and gold investors are "brothers in arms," linked by their victimization at the hands of the powerful Street interests who defrauded them. In the case of gold investors, the covert gold carry trade was the primary vehicle utilized to steal their monies over the past several years...while ENRON investors were robbed of their monies by offshore specious trading aided and abetted by two of the major bullion banks responsible for that very same gold carry trade.

It seems the most effective (albeit costly) approach needed to impel an investigation into JP Morgan's gold book is a direct appeal to ENRON investors and the politicians who represent them (virtually every politician in America, since ENRON common stock ownership was very broad-based). If at all possible, I would suggest the implementation of full page ads in major newspapers, financial and dailies, across the United States, with copy that paraphrases Mr. Turk's letter to the SEC, plus prefatory comments addressed to ENRON shareholders. In those comments, it should be noted that exploitation of gold investors by Wall Street firms led directly to the exploitation of ENRON investors by those very same investment firms. The ads should request ENRON investors demand an independent, non-SEC investigation into JP Morgan's gold book (possibly by an Elliot Spitzer-type, not as the co-opted Establishment man he is today but as the regulatory maverick he once used to be). The ads should demand an independent, non-SEC investigation into the settlement reached by JP Morgan and the insurance companies in order to determine whether coercion was applied to those insurance companies by Wall Street goliath JP Morgan in order to prevent the ENRON investigation from developing into a more thorough examination of JP Morgan's derivatives exposure. Ideally, the ads should be financed by the gold industry itself (although I would not hold my breath).

In other words, there is no more effective way to liberate the gold market from the conspiratorial shackles of its long time price riggers than by creating a common purpose with the multitude of harmed bull market shareholders (best exemplified by ENRON shareholders) who ultimately were wiped out by the very same gang of Wall Street thieves. It is one thing for "lunatic" goldbugs to demand inquiries into Wall Street; it is a much more compelling thing when 401K investors, bull market funds, and mainstream institutions demand the very same inquiry.

As ironic as it seems, who would have ever thought that there would come a day when a gold investor's best friend might turn out to be a shareholder in one of America's once largest corporations? Whether they know it or not, ENRON shareholders share more in common with goldbugs than they could ever imagine.

They should learn this little bit of news as soon as possible.

Farfel

R Powell

(01/05/2003; 19:20:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93516)

Farfel

M. K. said it beautifully. Ditto from me and the Mouser.

Cavan Man

(01/05/2003; 19:29:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93517)

An Irish Blessing for all USAGOLDERS

May those who love us love us.
And those that don't love us,
May God turn their hearts.
And if He doesn't turn their hearts,
May he turn their ankles,
So we'll know them by their limping.

Cavan Man

(01/05/2003; 19:35:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93518)

and, for Farfel

May you always have work for your hands to do.
May your pockets hold always a coin or two.
May the sun shine bright on your windowpane.
May the rainbow be certain to follow each rain.
May the hand of a friend always be near you.
And may God fill your heart with gladness to cheer you

(a reputed "Irish Blessing")Cheers...CM

cyberbat

(01/05/2003; 19:49:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93519)

@Farfel

Farfel,
When I see and hear about gold warriors like yourself, a favorite poem of mine comes to mind about you. It will forever remain in my mind but only spoken to a favorite few.

" He that is thy friend indeed, he will help thee in thy need. If thou sorrow, he will weep;If thou wake he cannot sleep. Thus of EVERY GRIEF in heart, he will share with thee a part.
These are certain signs to show, faithful friends from faulting foe." Richard Barnfield
We all know at this oaken table where you are coming from and are with you every step of the way. May God bless you always.
Your friend,
Cyberbat

balzac

(01/05/2003; 21:31:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93520)

MALFEASANCE AND GREED

@ FarfellowFarfel you are my hero!!

How about an email campaign to the various regulatory bodies,

including the White House and Congress.

We had well over 100 bugs in the last contest , they should be gratefull enough to send a few emails each.

Besides most of us old birds dont have much to do anyway.

Balzac

Hipplebeck

(01/05/2003; 21:33:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93521)

I just watched a tv show about Enron

It was well done.
I liked the part where Brian Dennehey (sp?) says "there are thousands of Enrons out there."
The truth of the matter is The United States of America is one big Enron, and they are trying to make the whole world into one big Enron.
The sooner it all comes crumbling down the better.
I just hope we don't destroy the world in the process.
I am hammering at the feet of clay every day.

Sierra Madre

(01/05/2003; 21:58:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93522)

Been in gold "a long time"?

How long is "long"?

How about since 1941? That's when I got my first little gold coins.

Can anyone at this Forum beat that?

Sierra

VanRip

(01/05/2003; 22:07:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93523)

Saddam to Speak Shortly-CNN

http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/01/05/sproject.irq.inspections/index.htmlLooks as if Saddam will be speaking just before the London markets open. Interesting.

(snip)

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein will deliver a televised speech on Army Day Monday, the Iraqi News Agency (INA) reported.

"The President will deliver a pan-Arab and historic speech tomorrow at 11:00 local time (0800 GMT) to the people of Iraq and members of our brave armed forces on the 82nd anniversary of the Iraqi Army," the agency said on Sunday.

Al-Iraq newspaper said the civilian militia of Saddam's Baath Party carried out the war game Saturday in Babil province. Militiamen practiced deceiving an attacking enemy and fighting in urban and rural areas, the paper said.

Sierra Madre

(01/05/2003; 22:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93524)

CyteK - I don't want to alarm you (too much) but

Your niece's husband might well consider a crash course in making tamales and peddling them house to house.

He better get busy with something! The longer he waits the more dire his plight will be.

A great many people are in the same boat now, and the sooner they realize that things are not going to go on as usual, the better for them.

Sorry to be so drastically pesimistic, but it does no good to ignore the facts.

Sierra

techbull....

(01/05/2003; 22:20:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93525)

Media

I had a look through my local newspaper today, and in it was a full page story on why not to buy gold. The clown they were quoting from CIBC Wood Gundy actually had the nerve to say that gold was a bad investment, because it doesn't pay a dividend like mutual funds or stocks can. It is almost unbelievable that these same idiots who during the tech boom wouldn't have recommended a dividend stock if there lives depended on it, now seem to think a dividend is a necessity. Obviously a lot more people are beginning to inquire about gold, or these investment guys wouldn't be in such a panic to defame it.

physicalman

(01/05/2003; 22:26:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93526)

gold longevity contest

Ya got me beat bud!! I'm 44 and got my 2 1/2 dollar indian when i was nine. When you got yours i wasn't even a twinkle in my daddy's eye.

LimitUp

(01/05/2003; 22:49:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93527)

Old Gold Bug

Sierra Madre, I can't beat 1941 but when I was an 8 year old in 1950 I would get hung up passing the coin display counter at Bambergers Dept. Store in Newark,NJ. The coins were beautiful and only $50. Then my mom would come back and drag me away. Got Gold?

Sierra Madre

(01/05/2003; 22:50:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93528)

Thinking of the swift decline of the USA

Historians and philosophers will deal with the subject of "The United States of America and The American People" for centuries to come.

The democracy of Athens lasted only a few short decades.

Shakespeare's "Midsummer Night's Dream" Act 1, Sc 1, comes to mind:

"Swift as a shadow, short as any dream;
Brief as the lightning in the collied night,
That in a spleen unfolds both heaven and earth,
And ere a man hath power to say, "Behold!"
The jaws of darkness do devour it up:
So quick bright things come to confusion."

The USA, as framed by its Founders, was indeed a "bright thing"!

But, the granite truths upon which they built, thanks to their excellent classical education, have been forgotten and long ago discarded. And the bright thing has come to confusion, indeed.

Centuries of debate will follow.

****

Thanks Cavan Man, for posting "Recessional" in its splendid entirety. And more thanks still, for referring to me as your friend. I reciprocate the feeling heartily!

Sierra

Zhisheng

(01/06/2003; 00:31:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93529)

Sierra Madre (#: 93528)

That was a wonderfully appropriate quotation from A Midsummer's Night Dream!

Thinking about it recalls to me a speech I heard LBJ give sometime in the mid-sixties, in the darkness of the Vietnam debacle, which was promoting his "Great Society." His speech-writer had him end the speech with a quote from Mathew Arnold's "On Dover Beach": he said

"Ah, Love, let us be true"
To one another! for the world, which seems
To lie before us like a land of dreams,
So various, so beautiful, so new,"

I had read it not too long before in an English Lit class, and it sounded off-key. I looked it up in my textbook, and it sure-enough was: the stanza is the concluding one of the poem and it continues and ends with

"Hath neither joy, nor love, nor light,
Nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain;
And we are here as on a darkling plain
Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight,
Where ignorant armies clash by night."

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 01:29:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93530)

Natural gas prices rising as reserves drop with cold weather, less drilling

http://www.canada.com/halifax/story.asp?id=ABD9BB90-5A81-45E7-A6D1-68375D5091EA
Snippit:

CALGARY (CP) - The cost of natural gas, though not in the global spotlight like the price of crude oil, has been steadily climbing lately due to cold weather and dwindling reserves. Forecasters predicted another round of winter storms to pound the northeastern U.S. and boost demand for fuel. On Friday, the U.S. Energy Department reported that gas storage levels had dropped 123 billion cubic feet in the last full week of 2002, with total storage down 15 per cent from last year. All this will be a boon to the major natural gas-producing provinces like Alberta, British Columbia and Nova Scotia, which should enjoy greater royalty revenues as prices rise. But it will also saddle many Canadians with higher electricity and furnace heating bills. Gord Currie, an energy analyst with Canaccord Capital in Calgary, said the jump in natural gas prices is explained by three major factors - starting with the weather. "If you didn't have any cold weather on Wall Street - lower Manhattan - by about the middle of December, it's pretty much too late," he said. "But, of course, they had the one big snow storm and then a second one, so that's good for gas consumption." In the long term, natural gas prices will depend on a U.S. economic recovery, "and I think the jury is still out on that," said Currie. If there is a rebound as predicted, that will boost demand for natural gas, which is being used increasingly throughout North America as the fuel of choice for new power plants because it burns cleaner than coal. The third big issue affecting gas prices is a general decrease in drilling throughout North America, so new deposits are not being found to balance out the decline of existing reserves. Gwyn Morgan, chief executive of Canada's largest oil and gas company, EnCana Corp., said recently that massive consolidation in the oilpatch and the emergence of royalty trusts has had a harsh impact on exploration. "If you look at the combined exploration programs of the industry today, given that the trusts aren't exploring and the independents have consolidated, you've seen a huge pullback in grassroots exploration. "And this is, I think, over time going to take its toll on supply in North America."

Black Blade: Canadian fields are declining fast and storage levels are falling fast too. Since the US gets about 15% NG supply from Canada, it's a cinch that they will have less to export to the US. The US is going through its own rapid decline in production and storage levels. This is on top of little exploration and no reserve replacement. As I have been saying since before the last "energy crisis" (2000-2001), we headed headlong into an energy crunch of epic proportions. Forget about any economic recovery because without sufficient energy and higher energy prices there simply cannot be any recovery � cased closed! Game Over! And Check Mate!

Liberty Head

(01/06/2003; 01:33:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93531)

My first encounter with gold

As a young boy in the late fifties/early sixties, I went with my father to visit one of his friends named Bill. In the summer months, Bill was a prospector who lived on a large, remote parcel of land near Mt. Whitney outside of Lonepine California.
A nearby stream fed a water tank that he used to wash banks of soil into a soil sifter. Gold was $35/oz. He was getting about 3 oz of gold a month for a family of four.
He lived in a very small wood shack without electricity. Because he used dynamite close by, the windows were screens dipped in resin. They had a vegetable garden, a chicken coop with a still behind it.
They drank lots of beer, but because they didn't have a refrigerator, the beer was kept at cellar temperature,(90C, in the summer). He also had about 20 rusted junk cars from the 30's and 40's.
Range cattle had free roam of his land, so he would protect his garden from night raids with rock salt shotgun ammo. There were several mineshafts, I would explore with my brother. We would find tarantulas, boxes of dynamite and dead cattle.
Although, I didn't envy Bill's lifestyle, I sure admired his independent spirit. Seeing where gold comes from, makes it more special for me to own.

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 01:39:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93532)

Oil Key in U.S. Strategy on Iraq

http://cgi.wn.com/?action=display&article=17737363&template=gas/indexsearch.txt∈dex=recent
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) � If the United States invades Iraq, there could be oil shortages and gas lines � or an oil glut and falling prices. Much depends on whether American troops can secure Iraqi oil fields and whether other producers continue the flow of oil uninterrupted. In the growing drumbeat over war with Iraq, the Bush administration rarely mentions oil, even though Iraq has one-tenth of the world's oil reserves. But a military campaign almost certainly will have a major impact on world markets. In the event of a war, Secretary of State Colin Powell said recently, ``We would want to protect those fields and make sure that they're ... not destroyed or damaged by a failing regime on the way out the door.'' The growing prospect of war, combined with the monthlong political strife in Venezuela that is hamstringing that country's oil production, already has caused unease among energy traders. World oil stocks have been tight and fell sharply last week, the Energy Department says. ``The loss of Venezuelan oil is beginning to hurt,'' says Robert Ebel of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. ``What people are beginning to worry about is suppose the loss of Venezuelan oil continues when we intervene in Iraq.'' Together, Iraq and Venezuela produce about 5 million barrels a day. Ebel and other energy experts wonder whether increased production from other countries will be able to make up such a shortfall. With global production at about 76 million barrels daily, a loss of several million barrels could cause prices to soar, economists say.

Scenarios:

�President Saddam Hussein's government falls quickly, the Iraqi oil fields remain intact and the country's already dwindling oil exports � about 2 million barrels a day � disappear for a few months. Venezuela's exports resume and other countries, led by Saudi Arabia, boost production to make up any losses. Prices briefly spike, as they did in the onset of the Gulf war in 1991, to more than $40 a barrel, but within three months recede to normal levels or even lower with supplies plentiful.

�An invasion meets stiff resistance, Iraqi oil fields are set aflame, production is disrupted elsewhere in the Persian Gulf, global supplies fall by 6 million barrels a day. Emergency stocks cannot close the gap. In such a case, oil prices could climb to $80 a barrel and stay above $40 well into 2004, halting the U.S. economic recovery and triggering a global recession, according to Ebel, whose group has mapped out a range of scenarios. There is gas rationing and lines at service stations.

Black Blade: As I said before, we must go to war for the sake of "cheap oil". The economy depends on it and we will get it one way or another.

ElGordo

(01/06/2003; 02:16:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93533)

China needs your Gold-please sell

HONG KONG, Jan 6 (Reuters) - The Shanghai Gold Exchange is currently preparing the groundwork that would allow overseas bullion dealers and individual investors to trade on the exchange for the first time, a spokesman said on Monday.

The exchange, which opened on October 30 last year, is preparing the regulatory framework for the launch of new gold contracts, Yin Po, an exchange executive told Reuters by telephone from Shanghai.

The exchange has a total membership of 108 domestic institutions, but since China's gold demand is greater than its domestic mines can supply, foreign suppliers should be invited to join the exchange, Yin said.

"They could sell their gold directly on the exchange rather than go through a middleman," Yin said.

The People's Bank of China, the central bank, previously controlled all aspects of the gold industry in China and it had three consignment contracts with UBS Warburg, HSBC Holdings and Investec to supply a fixed amount of gold each year.

The amount of gold supplied under those agreements was never published.

But those contracts were terminated on October 28 last year, Yin said.

The exchange currently allows trading only in physical gold and requires both parties to a transaction to provide 100 percent guarantees of settlement.

Currently, the buyer must show proof of payment ability and the seller must deposit his physical gold with the exchange before engaging in trading.

FOUNDATION WORK

The exchange is now preparing the regulations and procedures to facilitate deferred settlement and thereby the foundation for introducing other contracts, such as forwards or short selling.

"I can't give you a timetable for any of these measures, but we are actively working on them," Yin said.

Under the new regulations, the exchange would allow for the payment of a specified portion of the transaction, with full settlement within a set period of time.

The exchange has already laid out the initial regulations that will facilitate the trading of gold by individuals.

Technically speaking, this will consist of trading in physical gold and gold certificates, Yin said.

The market has shown some concern about the pricing of physical gold and gold certificates held by individuals, an industry source said.

The initial regulations will require the dealer to use the exchange's currently indicated price at the time of the transactions as a benchmark; pricing should be made within a set range above or below that benchmark price.

The range will be set and adjusted by the exchange in line with the market conditions.

The exchange is also permitted to trade in physical silver and platinum, but has yet to launch trading in those metals.

Shanghai's 99.95 percent spot gold contract closed at 92.64 yuan a granne, up 0.03 yuan over Friday.
----------------------------------------------------------
"Currently, the buyer must show proof of payment ability and the seller must deposit his physical gold with the exchange before engaging in trading."

Silver starts trading this year!
To the moon Alice

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 02:41:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93534)

When the outlook is golden, start worrying

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0%2C%2C482-533878%2C00.html
Snippit:

On Saturday morning I opened the Business section and found an article by Richard Lambert headlined "US dollar faces year of living dangerously". He makes many of the points I was planning to make, and makes them very well � the overvalued and declining dollar, the "enormous" US deficit on current account, "the sorry state of the world's second and third biggest economies, Japan and Germany", the Asian central banks propping up the dollar, the sharp rise in the price of gold.

For the past 30 years I have been following the price of gold. In some circles I am regarded as a "gold nut". I have no objection to the term and may, on occasion, have earned it. But it is not an altogether accurate description of my interest in gold. I regard gold as the alternative to the central banks� currencies, and as a counter-indicator of the realities of the world's currency markets.

Gold is very different from paper money. It has had very long-term price stability, whereas currencies normally lose 90-100 per cent of their value in each century. Its price does not determine the export costs of the nation of issue. It cannot be created except by an expensive mining process and in small quantities; it cannot, therefore, be over-issued for political reasons, to win an election or pay for a war. It is an asset which is not represented by somebody else's debt or liability. It is the only form of asset that is both liquid, like a currency, and real, like property. For these reasons, it is the canary in the mine; major changes in the world exchange system usually show up early in the gold market.

In the past three years the world gold market has certainly been singing. Last week, it closed with gold above $350 an ounce; only a few weeks ago we were wondering whether it could break through $320. Not long before that the question was whether it could go above $300. The last time I wrote about gold, I commented that gold had been a better investment than equities and that I expected it to continue to outperform them. It has, and on a worldwide scale. For the past three years gold has been a much better investment than equities, in Japan, Germany, Britain and France, let alone the United States. Gordon Brown insisted on selling a large part of the Bank of England's gold reserve near the bottom of the market. Chancellors make rotten speculators.

After all, the United States is by far the leading world economy, Japan is second and Germany is third. The US has a serious problem with the deficit and the overvalued dollar; Japan and Germany have equally serious problems of low growth, financial deficits in the banking and insurance sectors, and non-competitive prices caused by their overvalued currencies. The big three all have sick economies. Their economic diseases may be different, but in each case the cure, if there is a cure, will be painful. Both the dollar and gold are telling us that a perilous adjustment in currencies and in real economies lies ahead.

Black Blade: Interesting article and it nails down the case for Gold. As I have said, politicians are intellectual pygmies - Gordie Brown is just another proof that makes my point. The outlook for Gold remains "Strongly Bullish" - using the rating system of a now defunct website gold analyst.

Aristotle

(01/06/2003; 02:44:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93535)

Hipplebeck, don't be a Simplebeck

I don't want to come across as belittling, but really! After reading your series of commentary I would be curious to know how guys like you thrive (or maybe just barely survive???) in the real world. It seems to me that the concept of barter is about the most that you can effectively get your mind around, and beyond that the full concept of money is alien to you.

Amost anyone willing to give serious study to these matters of money will eventually in time -- according to individual aptitude -- find their way out of the box you're still in. I recognize your handle at this forum from way back, so how else is it possible that you've failed so utterly to come up to speed in the presence of so much patient attention and masterful elaboration on these issues -- unless your elevator only goes up to the barter floor?

I see you talking about netting as though you understand that concept. Good! Let's build from there. Consider man's penchant for conducting his ongoing business deals while netting assets against obligations a rolling basis; now consider all of his counterparties doing the same thing. *BINGO!* you've got yourself a small glimpse of the great worldly phenomenon we call money.

The fact that it's always rolling... "netting-on-the-fly"... reveals that "conclusion of wealth" (to use Belgian's good phrase) doesn't happen (**and is meaningless!!**) WITHIN the realm of money. Money resides in the intangible world of netting streams of income and obligation. Only when you cash out some of your netted surplus to buy real service or property (such as Gold) do you exit the mental monetary world to expand your wealth position in the physical living world. To baldly say, "Gold is money," as you do is to openly declare yourself a babe in the woods in dire need of mothering. And yet you've long refused all here who would help you reach full stature. What gives?

Let me try one last novel approach that might reach you to cast light in shadowy regions were all other attempts have failed.

Way, way back in the good ol' days, say, when barter still walked the earth in its full glory, every national language had fewer words than they have today, but each certainly had its own well-known word for the special yellow metallic substance that we English speakers call Gold. In fact, we still call it Gold, even in today's fast paced times.

"Gold." It's such a simple and effective word. Why then -- if "Gold is money" as you say it is -- do you suppose every nation went and mucked things up over the course of time by introducing a secondary word (i.e., e.g., "money") to stand in as a rank upstart beside the time-tested and well-admired word "Gold"???????

Could it possibly be that through development and use of this elaborate scheme of "netting-on-the-fly" it transpired that "Gold," the effective word for a tangible yellow metal, was not an effective word for an altogether different thing -- an intangible system of account that nets billing and payments, thus leaving it up to the rich alone (with net surplus money) to "conclude their wealth" in the purchase of Gold?

I think some people don't understand the easy concept of Gold because they live hand-to-mouth from paycheck to paycheck. The concept of "clear title" is beyond their reach. These are the people who clamor loudest for use of Gold in currency because it's only then in their net/break-even world would they at least enjoy the ILLUSION of Gold ownership as it passes unownable through their hands. We've been down that (deadend) road before!!

There's no need for confusion here. To own it is to know what it is. Property! Wealth of Kings for those of us living in the plus column (net savings!!!!)

Gold. Get you some if you've earned it. --- Aristotle

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 03:17:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93536)

The Kiss of Death � Gold Hedging

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BC4C9F464%2D3415%2D410A%2DAA63%2D88776992DC74%7D
Snippit:

Money managers Jean-Marie Eveillard and Charles de Vaulx vaulted to the top by staying one step ahead of their rivals, even when it meant having to create a new security to do so. They constantly looked ahead, getting out of investments that other gold funds went into, and stuck relentlessly to their value investment style. Early on, the fund made a conscious effort to invest in gold mining companies that don't hedge, said de Vaulx. Non-hedgers are more exposed to the movement of gold since they don't sell forward. They also looked to the hedgers they first avoided, such as Barrick Gold and Placer Dome.
As hedgers, these stocks hadn't done well since investors didn't think they could participate in the climbing price of gold. Finally, the fund bet on bullion itself. In September, the fund's board authorized the purchase of gold bullion. Within two months, the fund put 10 percent of its assets then into gold, buying 40,000 ounces at an average cost of $326.50 an ounce. Gold's now trading at $350. Looking ahead, de Vaulx sees gold reaching as high as $400 to $450 an ounce or more in the next year or two if investment demand for the yellow metal gains ground. Typically, the jewelry sector makes up the bulk of the demand for gold. "Today, there's very little investment demand for gold. But we think conditions are ripe for investment demand for gold to appear," de Vaulx said. "Investment demand is the key going forward."

Black Blade: Hedging is the "Kiss of Death" for miners now. Anyone with shares of a hedger would do well to sell and get out (go for the Gold instead). Even Gold Funds are buying into bullion ahead of hedged miners. Actually mega-hedgers shares have performed badly in the face of a stronger Gold price.

The Invisible Hand

(01/06/2003; 03:53:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93537)

Wake up!

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html$ 356 has been broken to the upside

silvercollector

(01/06/2003; 04:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93538)

Wow...354 breached!!

NY is going to have fun with this. So what will we have , the big smack or the big cover, exactly 2 hours we find out!!

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 04:43:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93539)

Market Indicators

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures slipped into the negative, Gold and Silver soar, the USD is falling hard (currently below 102), oil and NG are falling off too on profit taking but likley to rebound sharply. The markets are getting the jitters over the Bush "Stimulu Plan" because of the total abolishing of dividend taxes. This will lead companies with actual earnings (not phoney baloney pro forma or operating earnings but the real deal) to do well and others to pay out earnings to the owners (share holders). The truly unprofitable companies that have been lying to shareholders about profits will be exposed (and there are thousands) and that could crush the indices further while select shares of companies that pay out healthy dividends will soar. It's hard to deny positive earnings reports when actual cash is paid out. We shall find out the gory details tomorrow when the prez sez what he is proposing.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 04:51:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93540)

Euro Markets Tank and USD Crashing

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Eurpean investors are getting ripped a new one this morning as equities are taking a beating. It should get "interesting" and "entertaining" as sheep get shorn and brokers and banksters aggressively work the phones in their respective boiler rooms. We shall watch the PM markets too as shorts will either cover or institutions will come to the rescue painting themselves ever tighter into a corner. Should get "entertaining". We just might soon see "swan diving brokers" over Wall and Broad in NY. Meanwhile the USD weakens.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 04:59:30 MDT - Msg ID: 93541)

Dollar Hit by Selling Wave as War Jitters Rise

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030106/markets_forex_3.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar hit a three-year low against sterling and brushed last week's multi-year lows against the euro and Swiss franc on Monday as signs of U.S. military build-up in the Gulf put the U.S. currency back on the skids. War jitters were heightened after USA Today reported the U.S. military had put more than 10,000 soldiers on alert for deployment overseas. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein raised the temperature further, saying Iraq was prepared for a possible U.S. attack and accusing U.N. weapons inspectors of carrying out "pure intelligence work."

Black Blade: Ya can almost hear that "sucking sound" as cash leaves US shore for home.

Hipplebeck

(01/06/2003; 05:16:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93542)

Aristotle

How very sad that you have come out in defense of the dollar.
I have plenty of gold and I attempt to share it and it's meaning.
You are confusing yourself. You believe you must accumulate paper so that you can accumulate wealth.
If we traded in the wealth of kings, you would accumulate wealth simply by setting aside a little.
You think you have great concepts that a poor little man like me can't grasp? Some one is living inside a small box, but it isn't me.
I strive for spiritual truth and attempt to uncomplicate the machinations so that honest men earn honest wages.
I understand derivatives, credit, capitalism et al completely. I see the forest because I am not fascinated by the trees. When you drop your desire for wealth at the expense of others, you too will see more clearly.

Sundeck

(01/06/2003; 05:56:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93543)

Post-Saddam Iraq: Linchpin of a new oil order

http://www.fpif.org/papers/oil.htmlSnips:

Post-Saddam Iraq:
Linchpin of a New Oil Order
By Michael Renner, Worldwatch Institute
Michael Renner is a Senior Researcher at Worldwatch Institute and a policy analyst for Foreign Policy In Focus (online at www.fpif.org).

....

"An unnamed US diplomat confided to Scotland's Sunday Herald that "a rehabilitated Iraq is the only sound long-term strategic alternative to Saudi Arabia. It's not just a case of swapping horses in mid-stream, the impending US regime change in Baghdad is a strategic necessity."

...

"Regime change" in Baghdad would reshuffle the cards and give U.S. (and British) companies a good shot at direct access to Iraqi oil for the first time in 30 years�a windfall worth hundreds of billions of dollars. U.S. companies relish the prospect: Chevron's chief executive, for example, said in 1998 that he'd "love Chevron to have access to" Iraq's oil reserves."

...

"Bush administration officials have, however, categorically denied oil is one of the reasons why they are pushing for regime change in Iraq. "Nonsense," Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told 60 Minutes� Steve Kroft in mid-December 2002. "It has nothing to do with oil, literally nothing to do with oil."

But oil industry officials interviewed by 60 Minutes on December 15 painted a different picture. Asked if oil is part of the equation, Phillip Ellis, head of global oil and gas operations for Boston Consulting replied, "Of course it is. No doubt.""

Sundeck:

Michael Renner provides some useful background (including many references) to the forthcoming highly-billed main event in the "biggest show in town" - control of world oil reserves and the price of oil. Given the complexity of ownership issues, the number and disposition of stakeholders and the value of the prize on offer it is hard to see this thing going smoothly... :-(

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 05:59:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93544)

Investment tips to protect against future inflation

http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=35656993&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:

All that glitters this holiday season . . . is GOLD! Long overlooked, and derided by many, the price of gold has soared to new five-year highs, trading at more than $340 an ounce this week. But why are gold prices suddenly rising? It's not just talk of war that has sent gold prices higher. More likely gold is up because the holders of trillions of dollars that Americans have sent overseas to buy foreign products are suddenly worried about the future value of the dollar. And with good cause. In recent weeks, at least one Federal Reserve governor, Ben Bernanke, promised that the Fed will do everything in its power to keep the economy from falling into deflation--even if that means running the printing presses to make unlimited supplies of money available to keep the economy moving. Those foreign dollar-holders are getting queasy as they contemplate that prospect--and they're moving their money out of dollars into gold and the euro.

Black Blade: Old Chicago Sun Times article. My outlook for gold remains "Strongly Bullish". The Euro continues to stomp the dollar this morning even though Gold comes off the overnight highs.

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 06:18:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93545)

AT&T to cut 3,500 jobs and take $240 mln charge

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/030106/telecom_at_t_jobs_1.html
Snippit:

BEDMINSTER, N.J, Jan 6 (Reuters) - AT&T Corp., the largest U.S. long-distance telephone company, said on Monday it will take a $240 million restructuring charge as it cuts about 3,500 jobs.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows again as more "Phone Bones" are added. AT&T does its part to contribute. "Bone Pile" growth should pick up now that the holidays are over. It is expected that unemployment benefits will eventually be extended but too late for over 2 million who have already exhausted extended benefits and more at a clip of about 95,000/week.

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 07:58:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93546)

GATA Urges SEC to Investigate Morgan's Denial of Any Involvement in Gold Market

http://library.northernlight.com/FC20030106200001113.html?cb=229&dx=1006≻=0#doc
Snippit:

DALLAS, Jan 6, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee has urged the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s denial of any exposure to changes in the price of gold. GATA's appeal to the SEC was made today in a letter written by the committee's consultant, James Turk, editor of the Freemarket Gold and Money Report. Turk's letter provided evidence suggesting that gold loans may have financed Morgan Chase's support for bankrupt Enron Corp. Further, Turk noted, even while Morgan Chase is denying any involvement in the gold market, the firm has registered more than $40 billion in gold derivatives exposure in its filings with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Last week Morgan Chase CEO William Harrison and General Counsel William McDavid complained of a persistent "rumor" that the firm was involved with gold, denied such involvement, and said the firm had asked the SEC to investigate the rumor's origin.

Black Blade: Food Fight! Actually the SEC won't do a thing. They can't even bust the top dogs at Enron and WorldCon. It makes good copy though and shines a little more light on the cockroaches.

MAHENDRA

(01/06/2003; 07:58:24 MDT - Msg ID: 93547)

World & Financial prediction for January 2003, WATCH GOLD SHARES

JANUARY 2003 PREDICTIONS

I do wish everybody a happy and prosperous new year, it is my hope and
prayer that the year will pass on peacefully. Once again I would like to
remind everybody that my prophecies and predictions have no personal
feelings, likes and dislikes with any country religion or person, I just
predict what I see in my astrological charts.

WAR

When we pronounce this word 'War', it vibrates negatively to us and fills
the surrounding environment with a horrific fear. Nobody likes to enter into
war. Politicians they are very important people for community, society,
region, county and whole world. Peace and war is in their hand, so they
should give-up negative thoughts of power and ego because this can create
havoc in the world. Planet forces us to make decisions but if we come to
know well in advance then we can divert destiny (avoid bad things).

Mars is the owner of war. From 7th January 2003 it is entering in the blood
sign, which is a sign of war, so I would say that any time from 7th January
I clearly see in my vision as well as in my astrological calculations that
USA will attack Iraq. This war will last for 29 days and George W. Bush
might succeed in removing Saddam Hussein from power. Currently Saddam
Hussein is in a bad period cycle which will end on 21st April 2003, so, if
George W. Bush does not succeed in removing Saddam from power, then he will
rule Iraq for many years and I see him rising for many years.

As I last predicted, many innocent people will die in this war, and many
countries will go against USA. I pray that Israel should not involved and
take active part in this war otherwise in the future coming time, Israel
will be in problems with attacks from the Islamic countries and USA will
have less time to protect them.

There will be some good news in the months of May or June, 2003 for Israel
and Palestine peace agreement. I will be watching carefully. I pray for
peace and no innocent killings by suicide attacks and killing in the name of
JIHAD.

MIDDLE EAST

January 2003, will be the worst month for the Middle East. There will be no
peace and there will be a lot of suicide attacks from Palestine. In
Palestine there will be arrests on key people and many important or key
people will be killed. In the month of January 2003, Israel tanks and
military will surround Palestine air force will destroy many buildings,
house and refugees camps. People will be trapped in horrible scenes. I
cannot write more because the scenes I visualize are horrible. Why don't
the world political and religious leaders come together for peace?

STOCK MARKET

After the first week of January 2003, all round the world the stock market
will stabilize. Technology, Telecom stocks will be on rising side. The Asian
(Japan, Hong Kong, India, Korea), European, South American and NASDAQ stock
markets will be on the rise. I do not recommend the blue chips and
pharmaceutical stocks for investment in the year 2003.

It will be celebration time for all the metal stocks in the month of January
because of the rise in prices of metals and big investments, which will come
in the mining sector. I clear see all metal stocks reaching on a new high
and their journey will start head toward to north. In metals I recommend
gold, silver, Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium and copper also diamond-mining
stocks should be on investors buying list.

GOLD

Many people complain that I give lot of attention and predictions on gold
since the last one and a half years. Here I want to clarify that I do not
favour gold but I just predict what I see for gold. In my vision I see gold
as a very unique metal that is why I am highly attracted to it (gold and I
are like followers of Guru and God) because there is no negativity with it,
just a feel of peace and happiness.

The main point is investors are always interested in the gold pricing, so I
am predicting that gold will continue to move up and in the month of
January. Gold will rise more then 12 to 15%. My next target for is $388 and
$412. Gold stocks will give maximum gains to investors in the month of
January. Many were asking me, why gold stocks are not moving up way gold is
doing? I am predicting just watch gold stocks in the month of January 2003.
Don't wait, everybody must have gold stocks in their portfolio (Jupiter is
saying). War will also push prices of gold up but I don't see that much
effect on gold because it will be rising on it's own.

SILVER

White metal and like I have already said a week back "give way to a white
bullish which is entering in silver, I clearly see the white bull now. In
the month of January 2003, I am predicting that silver will rise by more
than 14% and may up to $6.00. Now my predictions for silver are on the right
path.

PLATINUM

This metal is in my watch list. In the month of January, Platinum will go
crazily upwards by a rise of more that 10%. First target $700 and second
one $1200 The same will be for Rhodium and Palladium, they will rise more
then 100 to 500% in year 2003.

OIL

In December 2002, I predicted that oil prices will touch $28 a barrel, this
prices went above my predictions. In January I see a sudden rise in oil
prices which will go a two, three or four years high although I do see a
sudden drop in prices by 9% in any one week of January otherwise, the
overall the month of January will be a rising month for oil. Oil will remain
very Volatile because of USA-Iraq and Middle-East war.

COFFEE

Coffee prices will have a sudden rise from 16th January 2003. This sudden
rise will give relief to coffee traders who have been stuck in the coffee
trade for a long period.

COPPER

I am recommending investment in copper just for the next 45 days. The
prices can rise by more that 20 to 25% but then after the prices will
collapse.

CURRENCIES

From 7th January 2003, South African Rand will start moving down. In the
Month of January the dollar will gain against the Japanese Yen, Swiss frank,
Canadian dollar. And against major currencies (Euro, Pound) will remain
stable. My advise is: Do not make any speculations or decisions on
currencies trading because all technical calculations on currencies will go
wrong and it will be very confusing so this area should remain untouched.

EVENTS

In the month of January there will be a lot of small accidents and terrorist
attacks. Weather will play a negative role in the Northern part of the
world and many will die in cold and will be forced to change zones. People
living in this part of the world should be cautious because the cold will
bring havoc.

Detail weekly predictions you can find in my new book.

Thanks & God Bless

Mahendra Sharma

Christian

(01/06/2003; 07:59:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93548)

Question

With crop tree managment I can increase the value at harvest from $500 an acre to $25,000 an acre by improving the growing conditions for the trees to be harvested in the future and by improving stand characteristics which will significantly increase the value of the stand at harvest. The defective trees cut down have a fertilizer value of $60.00 per ton if I leave them there or $3.00 per ton as chip wood. Taking the chip wood out would damage a lot of good trees. I takes my about 5 days to do an acre because I end up cutting down at least 5000 trees to save 1000 of the best trees and on those best trees I spend a lot of time pruning. To me the cost of pre-commercial (sanitation) thinning is very justified and I have 250 acres of the 967 acres done. But I do have a problem. I can afford to work for free, been doing that for the most part of my life, but I can not afford the expenses of fuel, saws, vehicle expenses with out income. In no way will I place a loan on this property, and in no way will I try to try to sell my timber forward. I am doing the same thing on a 5000 acre piece in Russia but I have 4 families working on that piece for $120.00 a month. They get all of the defective wood cut down and what they do is bundle the branches of the needle trees and trade the wood with a bakery for baked good items which they sell at their retail (shack) outlet. The best income they have is the collection of tree seeds and export it to tree nurseries. On the 967 acre piece I did get some Federal Thinning money, but that has come to an end. It is very important to me to continue because I am at my most productive years and as I get older I may end up having to slow down. When I get old I feel I can manage to look at the improvements I made but I can not do the work. Also I do not wish to cheat nature and sell what nature created for nothing for less then what it costs me to produce. After all the property taxes on this place is $2,300 a year and going up. Anyone have any ideas on how to do it. Most trees on this 967 acre lot are 4" in diameter. On the 5000 acre lot they are 14" and really have no value because that economy is deader then dead.

a nation of one

(01/06/2003; 08:32:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93549)

the color yellow

An important contributing factor to a collapsing stock market is loss of public confidence. The increasing realization that persons previously respected are liars and thieves does not bring this about but only adds to it. Following the sheer joy of reassuring but paper gains, when stock averages fall 30 percent, feelings turn more sober. In this dark landscape make possible the general discovery that a weak fiat-currency policy has been newly though tacitly established, and a strong physical asset of inherent value is destined to lift off.

Genoo

(01/06/2003; 09:01:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93550)

Farfel and Blackblade are behind the curve...IMHO

http://library.northernlight.com/FC20030106200001113.html?cb=229&dx=1006≻=0#docBill Murphy and his story of GATA has been worming it's way into the media for some time now..but never before has GATA been reported on by the likes of Reuter's or the Business Wire. It is now a story that is out there and one that cannot be ignored in this era of the revelation of corruption. Enron is offered in comparison but I say that that was perceived more as one corporation doing in smaller corporations whereas Gata clearly refers to the very survival of the common man.

I would say look out for the likes of Gretchen Morgenson of the NYTimes interviewing the fiery Murphy...and then watch the sparks fly...I say that a major paper will find the story compelling. Then the SEC will not be able to ignore/avoid no matter how badly it might want to. Why you say...because it reveals the plight of the little guy, let us say, being taken advantage of by Mr. Big and obnoxious...the story being simply superior copy...and that is what sells newspapers is it not...

motown_gold

(01/06/2003; 10:23:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93551)

thoughts??

borrowed from another site, is this the real another , or just an imposter?

ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#200346:

Where are those who say $200 gold? What happened
to $300 ?MAJOR? resistance? Then they said $330
was wall. Again noone will believe $600 is time to
buy. ENOUGH of this foolishness!

Soon there will be ?announcements? of large buyers
of gold but will this be ?spin? to say many
sellers? Now is time to watch what gold does and
not hide head in sand. Your eyes don?t lie. This
is the beginning of the greatest transfer of
wealth in the history of all ages. What is wealth
and do you have it? The wealth of many millenniums
and of your great fathers before you will protect
your family now. As for me and my house gold is
wealth!

Gandalf the White

(01/06/2003; 10:31:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93552)

Sir Motown_gold's QUESTION !!!

IMPOSTER !!!
IF ANOTHER were to post on ANY Webpage, IT would be the USAGOLD Forum. We Goldhearts await his and FOA's return.
PS: the only item in the same word pattern was the use of "noone" !
<;-)

(01/06/2003; 10:37:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93553)

motown's question re: ANOTHER

Clearly an imposter.

Gandalf the White

(01/06/2003; 10:40:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93554)

Thanks for the "Happy BIRTHDAY's" !!!

The Hobbits were not to let that secret out ! BUT, Thanks Lady Waverider and SIR RICH !! GREAT reading of this weekend postings. (And Sierra M. --- I've got ya beaten by just a few of these GOLDEN years, but I did not know it at the time, as my father gave me a Gold US$1 at birth.)
Guess what I have given each of my children and GRANDCHILDREN for a BIRTHday present ?
<;-)

balzac

(01/06/2003; 10:49:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93555)

DERIVATIVE EXPLOSION

PAST POSTSHere we are at $354 so what happened to the much touted
derivative explosion that was so often debated at this forum.

Was I being misled by some of our leading informants or was this just goldbug spin.

Balzac

Belgian

(01/06/2003; 11:10:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93556)

@ Sundeck :# 93543 > Worldwatch Institute

Most of these worldwatchers have a rather narrow sight from a frog-perspective : Yes, there are many different aspects on the Iraq regime change. And for us, Gold-Advocates, it are the repercussions on Saudi Arabia (BIS-member) that are of utmost importance. It is no coincidence that Turkey is on some heavy shuttle-diplomacy into the region. Turkey that is jockying between the US (financial aid) and Euroland (EMU membership) as a bridge between Euroland and the ME (Saudi Arabia in particular).

The final outcome in the ME will have to result in a partition of spheres of influence between the US ($) and Euroland (�) dansing around the oil-reserves.
That's why, one will encounter many different feelings about the regime-change in Iraq, depending on who's looking at it.

The regime in Saudi Arabia is generally percepted as weakening and boiling. If something dramatic should happen in SA (revolution-POO explosion), the US is going to be blamed for it and not in the least by American citizens themselves.

We, Goldphiles, must look at the events overthere against the background of the OIL > GOLD > US$ - BOND !
Is it a coincidence that the euro, together with Gold is strengthening in the runup to the Iraqi invasion ???
Is the BIS (through euro) now in control of Gold AND Oil, rather than the Rothshields ? Why isn't the dollar profiting from the perspective of US-dominance/full control in the ME and its oil-reserves ??? Things have changed !

Can CBs stop leasing Gold exchange reserves without rising lease-rates ? Has the forward sale of 3,000 tonnes underground Gold, reached its maximum ? Is the maintainance of the paper-gold-market (LBMA) at its end with POG shooting through 360$/oz ? We must not forget that these 3,000 tonnes still have to be mined and delivered ! Any decline in goldmining could have catastrophic consequences for the POO ! If the rand (AUS$) appreciates too much...miningprofits (and output) might even decline and contracts cannot perform.

What if China/Japan drive POG too high too fast with physical uptake ? With a clear rising POG now, less private goldholders will be willing to put their physical in possession at risk for speculative purposes. Increasing scarcity !

According to Another #60253, Saudi Arabia has been taking 600 tonnes per year since 1990 ! India with no oil-revenue is taking 800 tonnes a year. This high POO and relative low POG gives room for higher yearly uptake (wealth-conclusion).

When the bulk of available physical Gold is tightly stored in those wealthy fists...something else of value must serve the flow of oil...the euro...perhaps ?

Aristotle

(01/06/2003; 11:35:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93557)

Hipplebeck on money: Two questions

#1) Would you single-handedly deny all of your fellow mankind access to credit and shut down their ability to borrow if creditworthy? (i.e., no home loans, no business loans, no car loans, no student loans, etc.)

#2) Bullion banking. Thumbs up or thumbs down? (Do you approve or disapprove of these operations, including Gold loans?)

Related bonus question: Would you knowingly deface your neighbor's private property?

Thanks in advance for giving these your full attention.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

steady

(01/06/2003; 11:52:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93558)

guess @ birthday present

u gave the grandkids a copy of lord of the rings!

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 11:54:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93559)

Natural Gas Industry Update

http://170.12.99.3/researchpdf/iEne010303b_1050.pdf
EIA Reports 123 Bcf Withdrawal

The EIA reported a 123 Bcf withdrawal, which was smaller than the Street's expectations of a 129-135 Bcf withdrawal and our estimate of a 140-150 Bcf withdrawal.

♦On a normalized, weather-adjusted basis, this week's withdrawal implies that the market is about even relative to last year, however, do not forget the impact of the holidays on consumption last week relative to last year on a weather-adjusted basis.

♦The near-month (February) contract is trading up $0.03 intraday on the EIA's report at $5.28/MMBtu.

♦NOAA has forecasted 163 degree days for the week ending January 3, 2002. If the forecast is accurate, we expect next week's EIA report to show a withdrawal in the 70-90 Bcf range, taking into account the holiday week.

♦We continue to believe the natural gas markets are poised for a major supply shock this winter, the beginnings of which are only just beginning to be reflected in prices. As such, we remain extremely bullish on natural gas prices.

Black Blade: Note the table showing vastly lower storage levels (US and Canadian), and more winter temperatures have been lower than last year with forecasts of lower temperatures later this next week. It looks like another energy crisis is in the works.

CoBra(too)

(01/06/2003; 12:05:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93560)

A recent Essay by my favorite Gold Advocate -

Ferdie Lips, of Gold Wars fame, has dissected the stupidity of the SNB's Gold sales - "Freedom is lost in small Steps".

For my own good I will only quote what I believe is a crucial and lastly detrimental step to force Switzerland off their 40% gold coverage for the Swiss Frank.

partly quoted ...
"Following Switzerlands entry into the IMF in 1992, which forbids members to link their currency to gold ... half of the SNB's Gold (1.300) tons were to be sold (more than 600 tons already are sold).
The damages to the Swiss are not yet clearly visible, but like an economic B 52 bomber. the IMF has cut a strip of davastation into other countries' ecomomies. ..."

The IMF and possibly, the World bank as hatchet men for the Dollarization and suppression of nation's own currency and economic policies made the hegemony of the US Dollar as the "only" meaningful global reserve currency possible for so long. - The rather recent sirene calls - or is it cat calls - towards the BIS, with AG et al joining the board and the idea's of becoming supranational - another scam to prolong the scheme.

Well, it seems the ploy is over and the globalization - on Dollar terms - has been uncovered.

Time to take cover - with Gold - the only value proven throughout history ...

Had to cut short - got a call for dinner ... see u cb2

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/06/2003; 12:08:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93561)

Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutmore.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/06/2003; 12:11:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93562)

International clients: Please take note of our NEW toll free Int'l phone numbers

http://www.usagold.com/phone.html
Implemented to help us serve you better! Give them a spin and let us help you with your next gold order.

Christian

(01/06/2003; 12:21:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93563)

At Stake- At Risk

Politicians and people around the world had better ponder the economic reality (calamity) sure to occur in most parts of the world, if and when foreign producers shut off their oil supply because of lack of a payment vehicle that has value. It wouldn't take much to turn many countries upside down. The possibility of no oil is enough. In 1973 Middle east war lasted 18 days and the OPEC oil crisis lasted 6 years and in the end the oil price doubled. Same happened again in 1980. The caspian sea 235 Billion barrel oil bonanza is now a possible 20 Billion barrel high cost poor quality oil that will be capped for a future date. The 259 Billion barrel Saudi Arabia find is now down to 70 Billion barrels of oil that is deeper and more costlier to get out. The Iraqi 112 Billion barrel oil find is now half gone. Iran still has 90 Billion barrels and they want to hold on to it. Iran has 812 Trillion cubic feet of natural gas and it wants to hold on to that. Then comes Turkmenistan that holds who knows how many Barrels of oil or cubic feet of natural gas. The Afganistan war had all to do with the pipline and that according to ITERA sources and Unicol (sp) is junked. The new pipeline route is now through Turkmenistan, Iran with a side pipeline into Iraq and then to the Persian Gulf. For some reason Saddam Hussein is not scared by George Jr... any more than he was scared by Bush's father. Outright, he praises acts of terrorism on Americans. In Saudi Arabia, the royal family is falling apart. Anti-U.S. fundamentals are ready to bring the royal family apart. The irony here is the Bin Laden Family is itself split apart. More and more these people want to keep the oil for themselves instead of selling it for money of no value. One of the biggest jokes I have heard is that the dollar is too strong. If you want a weak dollar be prepared to pay more dollars for what you buy, be it fuel, gold, housing, food or anything else for that matter. You want your paycheck in weak or worthless dollars. Out of curiosity how do you pay a debt be it weak or strong dollars when the amount of dollars in circulation is only a small percentage of what the total debt is. What is lacking is honest money, honest trade. Are we in the west entitled to waste fuel driving around for no purpose while others who produce that fuel can't afford a mule.

J-Bullion

(01/06/2003; 12:27:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93564)

Christian

HOw are you sure the Caspian Sea oil is junk, and there is only 20 billion barrels worth? My sources say just the opposite. Any where is there information that the Afghan pipeline has been scrapped. Again, I have heard the opposite, or why do we have an army in Afghanistan now (to protect the pipeline, and not any UN peacekeeping mission). Just curious if you have any facts to back up those claims.

GoldnSilver2002

(01/06/2003; 12:34:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93565)

354 may indeed be the magic number still

Yes we have heard much of the daunted 354 p.o.g,but i believe it was a close above 354.So far every time gold leaps over 354 in asia or europe it has been frantically hit down.As one writer pointed out,these magic numbers often take several(6 or 7) attempts to climb over.So far this looks like another attempt to send the gold holders selling into the awaiting hands of those far wiser.From my perspective gold is accumulating again.Rather than losing favour,here in canada it is gaining favourable media attention.What does the media here say?No resistance until 370 to 375 and possibly heading to 400 again.Just as the cabal tries to talk gold down,they now have a new tactic,let gold fly overnight,allow the herd to rush into gold stocks and then smash the price down.Just another demoralizing tactic.Until gold closes over 354,nothing has been proven or disproven in my books.

Aristotle

(01/06/2003; 13:06:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93566)

An appeal to others

Since he's failing to get it from me, would anybody ELSE care to explain to Hipplebeck how it is that I'm actually defending Gold at the *expense* of the dollar?

Somehow, he thinks I'm *defending* the dollar. Preposterous!!

Clarity. Get you some -- with a little help from your friends. --- Aristotle

Boilermaker

(01/06/2003; 13:08:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93567)

Christian msg#: 93548 Timber Stand Improvement

http://www.fnr.purdue.edu/inwood/timber%20stand%20improvement.htmChristian- I have about 200 acres of timber and have found good advice from our State (Ohio) Service Foresters. In general they recommend cutting, girdling or frilling of unwanted trees. In your case frilling might be the fastest and it can be done with a sharp hatchet and some herbicide. A 4" tree would be a 2 or 3 "whack" tree. You would have to check the quantity and cost of herbicide to get a comparison with what you're doing now. Also the trees are left standing until they die and fall down. You might lose some of the fertilizer value but you can't have everything. The link above (from my alma mater) has a description of the methods along with other info on TSI.

Good luck with the project, sounds like a lifetime deal.
Cheers,
Boilermaker

Christian

(01/06/2003; 13:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93568)

@ J-Bullion

I do not remember saying Caspian oil is junk. It has a high sulpher content, is of poor quality and cost more to get it out of the ground. The so called big discoveries have turned up to be small pockets of not enough oil to make it worthwile at todays cost. Most of these fields are for sale at a cost it cost to drill the holes. The original oil pipeline was to go through Afghanistan is cancelled because of the not enough oil to make it worth while. Also the oil companies Exon/Mobile, Texaco/Chevron, BP along with Gazprom (ITERA) decided that Iran was less risk than Afghanistan. Afghanistan has returned to fighting among themselves and no one is in control. Northern Alliance has gone back to its production of opium for the Bush Administration. The new pipline calls for a constant military presence to guard the pipeline. Thi new pipeline is shorter, goes through less mountains and more dessert, and most important has access to larger fields with better oil. American troops will be replaced with U.N. troops to guard the pipeline. Iran is for it- which to me is a switch. Since Iraq will be divided up and Iran gets a piece of it I guess Iran has less to fear of Iraq. Saddam knows how to make enemies and this time it will go against him even if Allah is on his side. The Europeans are pushing for this plan and the major oil companies are for it. The only one against it is Bush and Unicol (sp). Saddam will simply be allowed to rule a much smaller kingdom until his troops starve. He may end up holding some of his people hostage. Allah is great..?

Cometose

(01/06/2003; 13:36:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93569)

Balzac/354

In the alcove to the theatre that you are seated in , there is a fire breaking out ........you my witness the evidence of this fire because you may smell the smoke....of VOLATILITY.......and that Volatility may be seen by looking at the price of coffee futures in the past few months.....it is rumored that there is an inverse relationship between coffee and the dollar.....the CRB index is also exibiting this volatility as are the grain markets now , oil and metals....The theatre owners would like you to stay in the theatre watching their Feature Presentation as long as they can keep you in there....If they say nothing about the fire and they are able to extinquish it ..... you may not be bothered anymore by the smoke....Their methods are very crude in fighting this fire as they are trying to smother the fire with paper...lots of paper...They are also facing extremely bad odds as it seems gasoline is being added by forces beyond our view....There are different retardants that may be used for different kinds of fire......In this fire ....i am afraid that the firefighters brought the wrong retardant....Soon someone may come from the office into the theatre and warn you that You may stay at your own Peril ......or they may not send anyone to warn those in the theatre....If you wish to stay and take your chances.....in the Theatre of the Feaure Presentation....you might want to dawn a GOLD FIRE RETARDENT SUIT ....that is protection which is available to you today......from the fire that is growing larger in the ALCOVE..

Belgian

(01/06/2003; 13:42:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93570)

@ COBRA the second > Ferdie Lips

Aggghhhh those CB-goldsales...!?
Sir Lips is surely a nice chap and a fellow Gold-Advocate, most probably sharing our emotions. But....is he as obstinate as we are about Gold's future ? Here I have small doubts.
Ferdie was/is a Rothshield affiliate (banker) and a board-member of several (SA- AngloSaxon) goldmines !? Howhowwwww.

Why is this gentlemen so silent and superficial about "GOLD" at present ? A man of such a reputation and inside privileges must be able to bring much more Gold_Secrecy on the surface. This isn't happening. He isn't telling or even suggesting where those couple of thousand tonnes, CB-Gold (Swiss and other), have been sailing to.

Not one single ounce of CB-Gold has been sold for jewelry !
Monetary Gold (exchange reserves) is for monetary business (currency defense) only and NOT for distribution as an ordinary commodity for any industry.
It is here that Lips is dissapointing. Not in his general theories about Gold but about the real world of CB-Gold, today.

CB-Gold remains UNTRANSPARANT for the time being ! A certain faction within the goldmining industry remains very happy with this secrecy and misleading public little peep-hole. Lips is a former insider respecting the omerta wich is absolutely normal when one is involved in the business of ultimate WEALTH !

It is the understanding of the above that is pure evidence for *Gold_Wealth* still being sohhhhh very precious, AND important, indeed ! A call to look at Gold as Wealth and NOT as a commodity. A very good reason for NOT ecluding that a new Gold-Era might be very well on the horizon or much closer !

Wealth owners only hand over their wealth ...to other wealth owners. CBs are no different in their view towards the intrinsic might of their Gold exchange reserves.

Switzerland knows very well what it is doing with its Gold.
One day we will surely be able to connect the dots and see/understand "why" they did "what". For Gold...a vault is a vault !

Belgian

(01/06/2003; 13:58:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93571)

No subject

Cometose : Brilliant...simply brilliant explicative answer to Balzac. Bravo Sir ! Enjoyed it tremendously. Thanks.

Christian : Keep on posting Sir ! Please do. There's something in the air above you. And this time I'm understanding the bulk of what you are saying. Thanks.

Ari : Hipplebeck confused me also. But I can always hide behind the fact that I'm missing (mis-interpreting) his nuances because of my poor understanding of English.
Hipplebeck : I never heard Ari defending the dollar-currency. Please explain what went wrong. Thanks.

ElGordo

(01/06/2003; 14:01:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93572)

SPR not filling up

Cavan Man

(01/06/2003; 14:08:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93573)

Aristotle, I'll run that gauntlet....

Dear Hipplebeck:

"Render unto Caesar what is Caesar's"

(I do)...CM
PS: What's left is the important stuff.

sector

(01/06/2003; 14:35:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93574)

@ELGordo The "Deferral" of SPR Crude Oil Deliveries...

...Seems Suspiciously Similar to the Barrick "Spot Deferred" Gold Contracts...that we all have come to marvel at since the government sure doesn't treat average citizens [Or speculators] with such largess.

If the government hadn't deferred those crude contract deliveries the parties would have had to buy the crude on the open market and we all know what THAT would have done to the spot price of crude oil.

So...the government has effectively announced that they intervene in the crude oil free market in order to suppress the price of a given commodity.

The situation is "Fluid" though since the Venz oil flow may be a bit more tardy and who knows what will happen once the Iraq war gets rumbling along.

The scam string keeps getting pulled tighter and tighter.

Solomon Weaver

(01/06/2003; 14:36:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93575)

Large Cap Gold Play Newmont beginning to get notice on internet chat boards......

www.schaeffersresearch.com/addinfoNewmont and Home Depot are both getting attention....POS

Schaeffer's 'Herd' on the Street Features PLMD, HD, and NEM
January 03, 2003 2:28:00 PM ET

CINCINNATI, Jan. 3 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's Schaeffer's 'Herd' on the Street features PolyMedica PLMD, Home Depot HD, and Newmont Mining NEM. A new daily feature available on SchaeffersResearch.com is 'Herd' on the Street. Every day, we'll focus on three stocks that are generating a lot of attention on Internet message boards. We hope this will effectively offer information on equities that are popular in the investing world and will be a beneficial resource for our readers. For additional information about this report or to have it delivered to you free via email every day click on the following link: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/addinfo .

(Photo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20020725/SCHAEFFERLOGO )

Schaeffer's 'Herd' on the Street:

SNIP

Newmont Mining:

Newmont Mining NEM and a number of other gold stocks are drawing attention after gold futures spiked higher around 11:45 a.m. eastern time today. NEM was able to move past resistance at the 30 level with the jump in gold. The stock has not closed above 30 since June 6. Volume for NEM is almost as high today as it was for the entire day yesterday. NEM's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio spiked higher after December expiration -- moving from 0.39 to 0.55. The current reading of 0.56 ranks higher than 86 percent of all those taken during the past year.

UNSNIP

Poor Old Solomon

CoBra(too)

(01/06/2003; 14:42:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93576)

@ Belgian Re- Ferdi Lips

But first I would like to take the venom from my CoBra(too) handle. It's short for two smaller miners (though with exceptional properties)I've been associated with for years, while too, of course means 'also' as the cobra handle was taken on another, while louder mouthed gold website.
To be fair, I wanted to make that distinction - anyway, you know now where I come from, though I can honestly state to have been a "gold bug" since the early 70's and may have learned a thing or two since then. So much to clarify my somewhwat obnoxious handle ...

Ferdi Lips, as you have correctly surmised was the founding general manager of the first Rotschild Bank in the early 70's in Zurich, when I've had privilege to meet him. He then went on to found the Lips Bank, a gold bank vs. a bullion bank, which he eventually sold due to accumulation of both gold and years, I presume.

And yes, Gold Wars is an exceptional and historical book on all facets of gold as money. Ferdi has also not stopped to educate on gold and has among others written numerous essays since - the latest was just published on Metropole Cafe - and is a much sought after speaker on the topic. His views are probably as accepted by 'insiders', as the findings of Venoroso et al are accepted.

Oh, of course, these kind of views were discouraged for so long and even supressed in the main stream media as being politically in-correct. Never-the-less, Ferdi and a few others haven't been silent, ever.

If you, Sir, find it disappointing I can only say you may have not been around for too long in the realm of gold and its true supporters.

Anyway - thanks for commenting and cheers to your overall insights - Servus from Austria to Belgium - cb2

J-Bullion

(01/06/2003; 14:53:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93577)

Christian

Your take on the oil situation in the Middle East is interesting. Are there sites that you visit to get this information, or are they private sources (friends in the oil industry?). Anyway, If the information is publicly available I would like to know what websites/sources you visit. Thanks.

Sierra Madre

(01/06/2003; 14:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93578)

REGIME CHANGE? yes!!!

In the U.S.

Sooner the better.

Sierra

Sierra Madre

(01/06/2003; 15:04:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93579)

Sir Belgian: I cannot let your remarks regarding F. Lips go unanswered!

It would be disloyalty to a friend, to allow disparaging remarks to be made, without standing up for him.

You need not worry about F. Lips, Sir Belgian. I know Mr. Lips personally and can vouch for his sincerity.

He is not holding anything back, in his book "Gold Wars" he states as much as he knows.

On many things, he is as confused as we all are!

He is 100% pro-gold, and no "ifs", "ands" or "buts".

F. Lips put up a prize for the best essay on Monetary Reform; the prize was awarded twice: Once to Reginald Howe, and the second time for Prof. Antal E. Fekete. CH 40,000 from his own pocket, CH 20,000 to each.

Kind regards,

Sierra

silvercollector

(01/06/2003; 15:05:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93580)

What a great day..........

....a poke at 356, 355 and then 354.

Looks like the PTB won the day closing NY at 351 and change.

I'll call this the second crack at 354/355.

Cometose

(01/06/2003; 15:06:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93581)

regime change

AMEN

ElGordo

(01/06/2003; 16:00:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93582)

Fake Euros in circulation

AP World Politics
'Sophisticated' fake euros discovered by Greek bank
1 hour, 43 minutes ago

THESSALONIKI, Greece - A businessman was arrested after depositing 125 counterfeit 200-euro bills at a bank in northern Greece, police said Monday.

It was first case in Greece involving the high-value bank notes, normally avoided by forgers because their advanced security features.

Police said the 47-year-old man � who was not named � was arrested, and two of his business associates had been questioned. All three men denied any knowledge of the money being fake.

Authorities who examined the money described its production as sophisticated.

The euro is potentially attractive to forgers because it is used in 12 European Union (news - web sites) countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.

Most previous cases of forgery in Greece have involved 50-euro bills.

Security features on the high-value notes include foil strips, holograms and color-shifting ink.
_____________
Sector that was a good analysis of whats happening with SPR.

I hear the Canadian Guv sold gold a couple weeks ago to buy Euros.
Whatever gets sold is bought in Asia.
Don't take any wooden Euros ! lol

ElGordo

(01/06/2003; 16:10:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93583)

China issues Olympic coins

The People's Bank of China (PBC), the central bank, announced in Beijing Friday that a set of gold and silver coins will be issued on December 28 to mark China's success in its bid for the 2010 Shanghai World Expo.

The coins, which include a gold coin and a silver coin, are legal Chinese currency, said the PBC.

The front designs of the gold and silver coins are the same, featuring the logo of China's bid for the 2010 Shanghai World Expo with Yulan flowers dotted around it. The designs also include the full name of China and the time of issue.

The gold coin has the design of a golden key and a flying pigeon on its back, while the back side of the silver coin features the image of Shanghai's Oriental Pearl TV tower and fireworks. Both the gold and silver coins have the coins' denomination on their back sides.

The gold coin is round-shaped and contains half an ounce of pure gold, with a face value of 200 yuan (about US$24.2). A total of 5,000 gold coins will be issued.

The silver coin is also round-shaped and contains one ounce of pure silver, with a face value of 10 yuan (about US$1.2). A total of 50,000 silver coins will be issued.

(Xinhua News Agency December 28, 2002)
____________
Not many coins but good publicity.

Belgian

(01/06/2003; 16:11:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93584)

Sierra Madre and Cobra II

It wasn't my intention to cast any doubt on the absolute sincerety of Sir Lips. But as a critical Gold-student, I want to question, analyse and yes, even be politely provocative. Ambitious students have the audacity to take a critical but respectful stance against "authorities" such as Sir Lips (and others). May I remind you about Another and FOA, overhere, who have been offering us through M. Kosares an *** enormous *** amount of deep insights that remain "totally" unspoken for by much (if not all) other Gold-authorities. That reality, remains extremely confusing to me and I'm still searching for the main reasons why this is so. I was expecting from you both (or other Gold War-readers) some Lips arguments that would neutralize my constructive criticism about Lips's reservations.

For many, many years, South African Gold has transited through Switzerland. Isn't it normal that I suppose Sir Lips knows more about the who's and why's of these Gold transits and consequently giving some leads of major importance. The more that Bazel is the Swiss city where the BIS-people come and go and a Rotshild banker (FL), in love with Gold, might have found a way to introduce himself into the mighty monetary temple. Lips must surely have been close to the Oppenheimer family and therefore close to Gold secrets (Swiss goldsales and other). These suggestions of mine contain no negative undertone or whatsoever.

Yes, I have studied Antal Fekete's lectures as well. But the honorable professor never took one second of his time to pay some attention to any of A/FOA's insights. Maybe I'm biased and galvanized by the mentors here present ? I'll think about it...again.

Hope you understand my posting about Lips a bit better now.

See you tomorrow and thanks for responding, gentlemen.

Cavan Man

(01/06/2003; 16:28:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93585)

Black Balde or anyone....

RE:POOLast time POO was above $30bbl there were massive protests in Europe and here, prices went up near $2 in major US cities. Where I live, I have not seen the price at the pump move AT ALL for about 2-3 weeks, maybe more. Wherever I travel, prices for regular unleaded are modest relative to the crude bbl price. How can this be explained? TIA

contrarian

(01/06/2003; 17:10:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93586)

Using Gold as Collateral

Does anyone know...after you've bought your gold here, is it possible to "put it to work"?

In other words, use it as collateral to get a loan from, say, a Swiss or South African bank, in order to buy South African gold shares.

This is a strategy that Mr. Sinclair says he used to great success in the 70's.

If you had, say, $50,000 in gold, is this doable?

Thanks!

contrarian

(01/06/2003; 17:12:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93587)

addendum to Using Gold as Collateral

In addition, the other advantage to this is that you take advantage of the appreciation of the South African currency against the dollar.

neer-do-well

(01/06/2003; 17:13:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93588)

Christian

I contracted precommercial thinning jobs for many years with state, federal, and private parties. I doubt thier computer model "forest" will bring in the most bucks in the future, who knows what the market will be 60 to 80 years down the road. Trees growing closer together might not grow so fast but the growth rings will be tighter and the wood more dense. Specialty wood brings a high price and under most natural conditions ( with exceptions) trees can ghet really large right next to each other. Let it be.

Arcticfox

(01/06/2003; 17:15:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93589)

I imagine a few out there will find this interesting..

http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=biz.yahoo.com/rf/030106/economy_canada_reserves_1.htmlReuters
Canada sells gold, keeps shift into euro reserves
Monday January 6, 12:56 pm ET
By Randall Palmer

OTTAWA, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Canada took advantage of the sizzling price of gold last month with the sale of one-eighth of its remaining gold reserves, part of a long-standing drive to get a bigger bang for its foreign reserve bucks.
ADVERTISEMENT

A finance ministry official said the decision to sell was not explicitly tied to a specific gold price, but added: "When the price of gold is enjoying some lift, we may conduct more sales at that time."

Canada has been selling gold from foreign reserves since 1980, investing the proceeds in bonds and foreign-currency securities that yield a return which "far exceeds the return that the government gets on gold," the official said.

Finance ministry figures released on Monday showed that the government sold 83,399 ounces of gold in December, leaving its holdings at about 599,000 ounces. That is down from some 21 million ounces in 1980 before the gold sales started.

Gold prices climbed in December as investors, worried about the possibility of war in Iraq, looked for safe investments. The climb continued this month and gold traded at around $352 an ounce on Monday, close to its highest level in six years.

The finance ministry said it also maintained its practice of boosting its holdings of euro-denominated securities, bringing these to the equivalent of US$13.77 billion, or 42 percent of the total US$32.69 billion in foreign deposits and securities held by the government.

Just two years earlier, euros accounted for US$6.62 billion, only 23 percent of the total. The U.S. dollar share has gone down during that time to 55 percent from 75 percent. Small holdings in yen constitute most of the rest.

The government generally runs a "matched book" for its foreign exchange reserves -- issuing a global bond in U.S. dollars, for example, and investing the proceeds in U.S. bonds -- and consequently it does not incur foreign exchange risk.

The official said Canada's decision on which currency to use for foreign exchange reserves was driven by the difference between the cost of borrowing in that currency and the parallel return on investing it.

"We certainly feel that obviously the euro is one of the major reserve currencies of the world, along with U.S. dollars and yen, and that's why it's one of the three eligible currencies for us," the official said.

"But we don't change the proportion, say, of euro relative to U.S. dollar because we've changed our view on how the euro's going to perform relative to the U.S. dollar or on how we view the currency necessarily."

Ten Bears

(01/06/2003; 18:02:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93590)

Christian #93548

My tribe has a small investment in Southern pine forests. Our consultant said the most we could expect in current dollars would be about $4K per acre for mature trees (20 to 30 years). I understand that you are in the far Northeast; Maine?...I am curious about the $25k per acre...what type of trees? We might want to diversify to that area, or change consultants. Enjoy your posts. Thanks... Tenbears.

sector

(01/06/2003; 18:05:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93591)

@CavenMan Price at the Pump

$1.42 down hereabouts but the mover is......those oil shorts who don't have to deliver back to the SPR until September 2003. Even then, the government may just keep deferring the shorter's deliveries out to infinitely as the government seems to have done with Barrick's gold deliveries.

The reason POO fell a bit today seems to me was those same shorts taking on even more short positions. They are in reality agents of the government, selling the SPR. Their take is the transaction fee both ways.

Black Blade is the expert on down streaming stuff [And everything else energy wise] so he is the man for the pump price dynamics.

Arcticfox

(01/06/2003; 18:12:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93592)

Just about sums it up for me..

"In addition to the government's borrowing needs, which are running close to $500 billion every seven months, the US is also borrowing $500 billion annually from overseas investors to finance its longstanding trade deficits. If that isn't enough to scare you, the money supply as represented by M3 grew by over $500 billion last year. We are now expanding the money supply by over half a trillion a year, the government is borrowing over half a trillion a year, and we are borrowing half a trillion a year to finance our trade and current account deficits. Something is wrong here and it is surprising that Washington and Wall Street see nothing wrong with these facts."

Jim Puplava
Jan. 6, 03

Chris Powell

(01/06/2003; 18:27:24 MDT - Msg ID: 93593)

National Public Radio's nightly business program leads with GATA

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1374GATA's Murphy and Turk interviewed on National
Public Radio's nightly business program:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1374

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

erayboy

(01/06/2003; 18:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93594)

IRAQ Ground War Has Begun

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/01/05/1041566310159.htmlGround unit incursions - "duplicitous".

R Powell

(01/06/2003; 18:43:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93595)

Christian // cordwood and coins// waves and chickens

It sounds to me as if your clearing is basically the way I used to cut cordwood, leaving the best to grow for sawmill lumber. Sell the firewood, removing it over frozen winter ground to limit damage. Yes, you'll need to cut in some roads, you can not make an omlet without breaking some eggshells. This will more than pay the bills. Perhaps you could list firewood prices in greenbacks, in gold coin and in silver coin with a slight discount for coins. This unusual discount would spread the word of your business faster than advertising and save the cost of the ads.

The Elliot Wave followers claim that we "hit" their target number today and now POG retracts downward. I certainly hope there aren't too many of these wavers that now sell causing a self-fulfilling prophecy. Perhaps we should start a cult of Rhode Island Red Chicken Entrail Readers (RIRCER) always predicting sideways chart movement in POG EXCEPT when the Wavers shout "down movement". Then we'll scream "gold to da moon" to flood the market with RIRCER buyers thus counteracting the Wave sellers.
BTW, the RIRCER prediction can not always be up because we'll need the flood of buyers awaiting the change from "sideways" to "moonshot" to fight off the wave. Anyway, the Wavers say down from here. We watch together.
Rich

Christian

(01/06/2003; 18:54:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93596)

@ J-Bullion + @ neer-do-well

1st- I keep my sources private, there is so little news you can trust. Example most people think Russia is a country just like the USA. In reality the USA is a corporation owned by the FED, and so is Russia, and by the same FED. People say we have the right to private ownership. Bull- All assets are owned DTC, 55 water street, new york city, New York. Same is true in Russia. Here I can buy land in person and in Russia the trick is to make yourself an entity and a co-op to the state. The truth is in both countries my ownership rights are really lease rights. The dollar in my pocket is not mine. The one in your pocket is not yours. ITERA like Carlyle is an entity with many entities within that entity. And like Carlyle they will bring an entity within that entity public, run the stock to the moon and then into the ground and make money both ways. There is more then 30 companies now listed on the pink sheets that used to be on Nasdaq that were privately owned by Carlyle and 4 of those went over $70.00 a share to pennies in less then 3 years. I call them story stocks. When the dot.com stock were hot some beat down gold companies renamed themselves as dot.com companies with some success with a dot.com story. ITERA has over 200 companies under its umbrella and it will sell information for money (consulting they call it) and many (most) of these companies have no money, no credit, no recognition, etc but they do have a web site and many will e-mail their going ons every day. Some Canadian dead gold companies are doing the same thing in an effort to get some kind of recognition. 2- @neer- do- well I agree that trees can get large growing right next to each other. To me precommercial thinning does not work. What I do is Sanitation Thinning. I simply cut the junk I do not want. I want oak, sugar maple, white ash, white or austrian pine, spruce, will accept a balsam fir as a christmas tree, but don't want poplar, the dead or die-ing (sp) beech and any tree that does not have good form. I have at least 1200 trees left standing when I'm done. Still to crowded but growth rates triple- both height and in diameter. Have been able to grow seedlings to sell from seed on the thinned acerage. Also have a large area where bluberries are growing. Sold some wild blueberry plants and will expand on that and the same with tree seedlings. Pulled 5000 tree seedlings this fall.----Sure wish I had a place to store my operating money. Presently at IngDirect earning 2.25%

knotakare

(01/06/2003; 19:35:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93597)

F. Lipps and his book Gold Wars

This book is an act of amazing courage, as Mr. Lipps has written a book about money, philosophy, hope and fair dealing. It is a book for those who would embrace a stable money system, and peace and freedom.

The reason this book is such an act of courage is because the west's bankers, economists, internationalist socialists, transnational corporations and the Bush/Blair/ War Empire see these ideas as a heresy, to their power and plans.

I am not going to write a book review, you will just have to read it for yourself. It is a very persuasive and powerful message. My Lipps makes the repeated connection in his book between gold ownership (by individuals and nations) and freedom.

He also addresses the contiversial issue, of how much of the Swiss people's gold reserves were extorted from them by the ruthless authorities throughout the US, Isreal and England.

Mr. Lipps book has the tone of the patriot, and the revolutionary. His ideas are powerfull and true, but they do fit into the schemes of the internationalists and the Bush Crime/War/New World Order system. These ideas will have to be discovered by some future generation.

physicalman

(01/06/2003; 19:43:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93598)

Ten Bears-Christian-then others

I work in the southern forestry industry and the prices that are being quoted seem to be from a few years ago. The only way to mature a southern loblolly stand in 20-30 years is with an extensive herbicide application program and most of that timber is unsuitable for structural saw timber. Most stands are now netting 850 to 1400 dollars an acre. There are ways to increase income on timberlands in the south (note: southern yellow pine is now being planted in Kentucky, Virginia, Maryland, West Virginia and Ohio)
1: on a fresh clear cut plant 900 seedlings per acre instead of 485 to 685
2: thin for plup at 12 to 13 years-half of stand this helps pay for spraying programs in the first year and gives income twice as quick even though it is only a few hundred an acre
3:thin again for plup at 22 years-2/3's of remaining stems this leaves about 110-140 trees per acre, depends on the mortality rate over the years. This allows the canopy to open up and lets you naturally reseed the stand, but not so much that you ruin the saw timber values by allowing branches to form on the lower parts of the remaining trees. The savings from replanting: 20-35 per acre hand planting and 35-47 an acre for hybrid seedlings plus 75 an acre for aerial site prep spraying and 45-50 an acre for herbaceuos spraying the next spring.
4: Lease the lands hunting rights. This brings 5 to 8 dollars an acre per year and pays most, if not all of the RE taxes.
5: Final harvest-29 to 34 years. This is near the peak time to get top dollar for saw logs. By thinning twice and eliminating competition for water, nutrients and sunlight in a controlled manner at 1/3 and then 2/3 life span the growth rings are tighter in the inner 2/3rds of the tree and double its strength. If you wait till 37 years of age (45 years in the northern planting areas) half of the trees could be sold for poles, thats where the big money is.
As for the northern spruce and firs of upstate NY and Maine by not thinning too much artificially and allowing for a tighter growth ring those trees are very desirable for poles and logs for home construction. In fact, thick stands of northern spruce do bring 17 to 30 thousand an acre for log home building.( but if we have a long economic downturn it will become a buyers market)
As for the Russian timber a lot of trees are being harvested there right now dirt cheap.The siberian timber is going to China, Korea, Japan and SE Asia. Western Russian timber is going to domestic uses and Europe. This has been having an adverse impact on our domestic mills and our chip exports since 1998. With 1 billion hectares of mature timber in Siberia and average wages in the region of 40-80 dollars a month, most domestic timber producers are limited to growth in the domestic markets. With home construction leveling off and what i think is a depression in our future, timber prices will probably be much lower in the next 20 years than recent historical norms.
On the subject of the Caspian area oil i believe that Black Blade posted an article in the last couple of days about the estimated reserves in this area being much less than previosly thought.
**********************************************
Something to think about: With the vast exploitation of the planets carbon reserves in the last 125 years, did we only get one shot at industrialization?

physicalman

(01/06/2003; 19:55:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93599)

christian

Didn't see your lastest post. Yes oak and ash are much more per acre than northern spruce and fir. Also the white pine is a much higher price yield per acre. Here in Va. in the highlands just the triming of the lower branches on white pine for Christmas wreaths brings 400-700 an acre. Red oak, Black oak and White oak are bringing 1100-1300 a thousand board feet at the sawmill and that is with the furniture industry being in recession right now.

silvercollector

(01/06/2003; 19:59:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93600)

I wish someone would take a crack at my 93454 and put their money where their mouth is....

silvercollector

(01/06/2003; 20:01:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93601)

We have a full-blown potential for a full-blown war and we skate around the edges....

sector

(01/06/2003; 20:03:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93602)

Japan official says BOJ must act on 'emergency'

Yoshiko Matsushita Bloomberg NewsMonday, January 6, 2003

FUKUOKA, Japan Japan's next central bank chief must act aggressively to stem the four-year slide in consumer prices, a senior official of the governing party said over the weekend.
.
"What we're facing now is an emergency situation," the official, Taku Yamasaki, secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, told Bloomberg News on Saturday. "We need someone with a strong personality even if it's a little overbearing."
.
Yamasaki has been outspoken on the need for action from the Bank of Japan to arrest deflationary pressures. His comments suggest that the government plans to pick a more compliant central bank governor to replace Masaru Hayami, whose five-year term ends on March 19. Toshihiko Fukui, a front-runner and former central bank deputy chief, may have been too concerned about defending the independence won by the central bank in 1998, Yamasaki said.
.
"We don't need to have an agreement with the Bank of Japan to set the target if we can communicate well," Yamazaki said Sunday on the NHK television program "Sunday Debate." "I want someone who can harmonize with us as a new Bank of Japan governor."
.
Yamasaki denied a Dec. 19 Yomiuri newspaper report that said he had recommended a former central bank board member, Nobuyuki Nakahara, an advocate of inflation targeting.
.
"I haven't recommended anyone for the post," he said.
.
Financial Services Minister Heizo Takenaka and other top government officials have put pressure on the central bank to adopt an inflation target. Under such a system, the central bank would set a goal for prices to rise and pump money into the banking system until that target is met.
.
Falling prices have squeezed profits and made it harder for companies to pay debt. Japanese consumer prices, excluding fresh food, have not risen annually since April 1998. In December, Tokyo core prices fell 0.7 percent from a year ago.
.
"To overcome a possible crisis, monetary policy is the last resort, as the government has done pretty much all it can do now, especially on fiscal and tax-related policies." Yamasaki said Saturday in a speech in his electoral district in Fukuoka, in southern Japan.
.
Fukui, who worked at the central bank for 40 years and now heads the Fujitsu Research Institute, also opposes government interference. The central bank should not be forced to adopt an inflation target, Fukui said last month in an interview with Bloomberg News.
.
Central bank officials have argued that monetary policy has reached the limits of effectiveness, with interest rates near zero, and that the government must take effective action to clear the financial sector's massive overhang of bad loans.
.
"Tackling deflation is one goal," said Yukari Sato, a senior economist at J.P. Morgan Securities Asia. "But, ideally, the next BOJ governor will be someone who can cooperate on government efforts to accelerate bad loan disposal."
.
Yamasaki also told Bloomberg News that the current level of the Japanese currency "isn't desirable" because a stronger yen makes the country's exports less competitive. Exports represent a 10th of Japan's economy.
.
The yen rose almost 10 percent against the dollar last year, eroding the value of overseas profits for exporters. On Friday, the dollar traded at around �120.
.
"From a point of view of whether it's an appropriate level or not, I'd say the yen should be much weaker than now," Yamasaki said. "The current level isn't desirable."
.
This month, the government is preparing to nominate the central bank governor, who requires approval by both houses of Parliament. In practice, the decision will be made by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, whose party leads the coalition government.
.
The nomination will probably come before Jan. 20, the beginning of the next session of Parliament.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The War on Deflation begins.

Let the kilobars roll!

Cavan Man

(01/06/2003; 20:22:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93603)

sector

They've got to do something because, according to Bill Bonner, they can't possibly pour anymore concrete.

Genoo

(01/06/2003; 20:42:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93604)

the bottom line

With 3 mins to go today spot was down one dollar...it closed up $.90 at $351.80...how about that

Tonight gold is down $2.50 down under..so what... it's only NY that counts and really only the action of the last few mins. when you get down to it

I know that no nobody can predict what gold will do...but hey..spot is on a breakout big time.

Barbgold

(01/06/2003; 20:46:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93605)

Tongue partially in cheek

I am usually a lurker, but given the recent gold action, I believe that it is time to take a stand.

Being a female, I am partial to wearing Estee Lauder's "Dazzling Gold" perfume. I now believe that it is a necessity-alternated with "Dazzling Silver" perhaps.

It is time to rally the troops. Female goldbugs- listen up! Male goldbugs-rally to the cause any female who does not spit at your feet.

Enough said. I expect results.

Barbgold

R Powell

(01/06/2003; 20:52:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93606)

silvercollector (93454)

I grew up during the days when little grade school children were taught how to hide under a heavy wooden desk that was bolted to the floor when an alarm rang. These were called air-raid drills but I can not, now, for the life of me figure out how cowering under a desk could have saved anyone from falling nukes.
I now live about one half mile from a major Northeast Air Force base (Otis) and, while not forgetting Black Blades words for preparedness, I refuse to live in fear. I honestly believed while growing up that my generation would see the nuclear Armageddon. We may yet and it will grieve me that my children were robbed of their time. If it makes you feel better, add potasium-iodide pills, some weapons and more gold and silver coins to your supplies.
Perhaps the world will survive this time period during which mankind is the dominent lifeform. Maybe we'll even "evolve" through this period and remain on the top of the foodchain for a while longer. Honest money to restrain the fallible nature of governance would certainly help. I'd suggest something non-perishable and non-printable to base it on but with a floating numerical basis to allow the associated currency to expand, contract, and change "value" according to free market forces.
As for the nukes, progress away from such solutions begin with improving all social interactions, from common courtesy to international diplomacy. Again, as commerce (material wealth) is so innate in man's affairs, honest currency would help, if not so much to alleviate problems, but to prevent many of them from being created at all.
This may not be what you were asking with your question but perhaps it may help. As always, just one poor man's opinion.
Rich

The Invisible Hand

(01/06/2003; 21:17:59 MDT - Msg ID: 93607)

What happened to the free-marketeers?

Re: GATA Urges SEC to Investigate Morgan's Denial of Any Involvement in Gold Market
Gata has demonstrated that it did not start a rumor, but that JP Morgan/Chase has registered more than $40 billion in gold
derivatives exposure in its filings with the U.S. Office of
the Comptroller of the Currency.

Why investigate the denial of involvement? Who will benefit from this? Does GATA not believe in my namesake's action to solve this problem? Why bother with an investigation?

The filings with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency demonstrate that JPM/C is lying. What more does GATA want?

Chris Powell

(01/06/2003; 21:37:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93608)

The free-market guys are still here, working harder than ever

Invisible Hand, you may know that Morgan Chase is lying about its involvement with gold, and GATA may know, and the esteemed posters at this wonderful forum may know, but unfortunately that still leaves a few hundred million Americans, plus many influential participants in the financial markets here in the United States and worldwide. Being confident in one's own knowledge has little effect on markets; to have an impact, that knowledge must be shared. The free-market guys are working harder than ever and have landed a few tremendous blows against the bad guys since last Friday, but there is still so much more to do. JPM is still in the gold business in a nefarious way and still lying about it.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 21:57:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93609)

Much Ado about Nothing -- Whither the Caspian Riches?

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/120502_caspian.html
Over the Last 24 Months Hoped For Caspian Oil Bonanza Has Vanished With Each New Well Drilled -- Global Implications Are Frightening by Dale Allen Pfeiffer, FTW Contributing Editor for Energy

[� Copyright, 2002, From The Wilderness Publications, www.fromthewilderness.com. All rights reserved. May be copied, distributed or posted on the Internet for non-profit purposes only.]

[Ed. Note: The unfolding drama since 9-11-01 has been closely paralleled by another, perhaps more threatening one. Evolving more quietly, unmentioned and ignored by the major media, is a coming hydrocarbon energy crisis of civilization-threatening significance. Peak oil production is a reality, and it is happening now. What was once heralded as an oil bonanza in Central Asia -- and given life by ludicrous economic and political assertions insisting that demand always creates supply -- has proven itself to be an enormous bust. As Caspian reserve estimates have been continually revised lower -- from 200 billion barrels, to 100 billion barrels, to around 20 billion barrels -- the world has witnessed a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy toward belligerent and unilateral doctrines aimed at Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In the meantime, both politicians and economists perpetuate a dangerous fallacy which says that if you lock scientists up in a bank vault and give them enough money and enough demand, they can produce a hot dog with mustard and relish.

And conversion to hydrogen energy, as promoted by the Department of Energy, is an impractical myth; a palliative meant to calm fears rather than solve problems. Not until technolgies are made available which manufacture hydrogen at the point of use will hydrogen technolgies present even a viable partial solution for the critical challenges posed by peak oil.

As FTW has said for more than a year, the "war which will not end in our lifetimes" is proving itself to be a sequential war to control the last remaining oil reserves on the planet, especially those which have not yet peaked. - MCR]

Dec. 5, 2002, 16:00 PST (FTW) -- What ever happened to all the talk of a new oil utopia in the Caspian Sea and Central Asia? Word was that Caspian-Central Asian oil reserves would dwarf the Middle East.

Yet, in the year since the Afghan War began, it seems that all the rumors of Caspian riches have died out and the center of oil interest has returned once again to Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In his exclusive FTW interview
(http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/102302_campbell.html), noted petroleum geologist Colin Campbell states that exploration in the Caspian region has been very disappointing, with the discoveries being much smaller than predicted and much of the oil discovered being of poor quality.

But the Energy Information Agency (EIA) predicted that the Caspian region would contain in excess of 200 billion barrels of oil. So what is being said elsewhere about the results of Caspian oil exploration?

At a recent event hosted by the Associated Press and the Harriman Institute, Steven Mann, the director of the State Department's Caspian Basin Energy Policy Office stated that the Caspian Sea contains only 50 billion barrels of proven reserves, a far cry from the EIA's projections. "Caspian Oil represents 4 percent of the world's reserves. It will never dominate the world's markets..."1

Likewise, a study published in PetroStrategies last July stated that the Caspian Sea contains only 39.4 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. The study, conducted by consultants from Wood MacKenzie, criticized IEA figures for the region as being severely inflated and unrealistic.2

The study states that oil production from the Caspian region should peak at 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2015, but be considerably less if the region remains politically unstable. Future discoveries might result in a production plateau extending beyond 2020.3

Only four fields are expected to make up 57 percent of production by 2010. Of these four fields, three are located in Kazakhstan: Tengiz, Karachaganak and Kashagan. The fourth field is the Azeri-Chirac-Guneshli complex in Azerbaijan.

Total Azerbaijan reserves are estimated at 6.6 billion barrels. However, drilling activity in the area has been disappointing, indicating that oil reserves are likely dispersed in small pockets.4

The Tengiz field is estimated to contain between 6 and 9 billion barrels of recoverable reserves. In 1993, Chevron paid $20 billion to Kazakhstan for the right to develop this field, resulting in the TengizChevrOil joint venture. Chevron expects production at Tengiz to peak at 750,000 bpd by 2010. Azeri-Chirac-Guneshli proven reserves are estimated at between 3 and 5 billion barrels.

They are being developed by the Azerbaijan International Operating Company, and are expected to peak at 800,000 bpd by the end of the decade.5 With reserves estimated at 10 billion barrels, the Kashagan field accounts for 25 percent of the regional total.6 This area is being developed by the Agip Kazakhstan North Caspian Operating Company (Agip KCO, formerly OKIOC), lead by the Italian oil major Agip.

Though Agip has been disappointed by exploration, in June of 2002 they stated there might be as much as 38 billion in probable reserves yet to be found in the Kashagan region.7

This author has been unable to locate data on the proven Karachaganak reserves, but the literature would seem to indicate that they are probably a little smaller than the Tengiz reserves.

Even the EIA has revised its report on the Caspian region, stating that although it is not another Middle East, it is... "comparable to the North Sea in its hydrocarbon potential."8

Additional discoveries have been reported in recent months, most notably by ExxonMobil9 and Nelson Resources.10 However, none of these discoveries are of sufficient size to alter the picture presented here.

In contrast, ExxonMobil does seem to be growing more cautious about the region. ExxonMobil announced in June that it was closing one of its Caspian offshore projects, the Oguz oil field, due to the poor results of exploratory drilling.11

Abandon Ship

As this article went to press, there are several new reports about oil investments in the Caspian region. ChevronTexaco is withdrawing from the Tengizchevroil venture. Corporate representitives and Kazakh government officials have offered contradicting explanations for the failure of this enterprise.

The nominal reasons for the move involve financial disagreements between ChevronTexaco and the Kazakh government. Disputes seem to center around distribution and reinvestment of profits and taxation.

Obviously, there are some hard feelings between Chevron and the Kazakh government. But the contradictory explanations offered by both sides may indicate that -- beneath all the disputes -- the venture simply isn't profitable enough.12

The Tengiz field has proven very expensive to pump and deliver to market. Aside from the engineering problems of extraction and transport, Tengiz oil has a high sulfur content (as much as 16 percent). Disposal of the waste sulfur has proven to be a major headache.13

Furthermore, following on the announcement that Chevron was shelving any further development of Tengiz, Kerr McGee has announced its intention to sell off all of its interest in various Caspian region projects, including mineral rights in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea shelf and its interest in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (1.56 percent). The company explained that it is seeking to rid itself of inactive profiles and leave projects where it only holds a minority investment.14

Finally, Agip KCO is also reported to be considering a delay in developing the Kashagan oil field.15 BP-Statoil has already withdrawn from the project, leaving Italian Agip to soldier on in the lead role. The Kashagan oil deposits also have a high sulfur content, and the geology of the deposits indicates that the oil may very well be contained in many small deposits as opposed to one large platform.16

When all of this is added to ExxonMobil's withdrawal from Azerbaijan and Russian Lukoil's recent announcement that it intends to sell its interest in the Azeri-Chirac-Guneshli complex, one has to wonder why all the major oil companies are leaving the Caspian region.

What About the Pipelines?

There has been very little talk lately about the trans-Afghanistan pipeline. This project seems to be floundering due to continuing instability in Afghanistan, and diminishing interest in the region's oil prospects. It has also been reported that the Caspian Pipeline from the Tengiz fields to the Russian port of Novorossiisk has been hit by a number of high costs, including port charges, taxes, and tariffs.17

The one pipeline which has remained in the news is the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. Estimated to cost about $2.9 billion, this 1,090-mile pipeline network will link an existing pipeline from Azerbaijan to the Turkish Mediterranean Port of Ceyhan. To reach its destination, this pipeline will have to cross high mountain ranges and traverse territory occupied by disaffected Kurds, who may prove hostile to the project.

Critics have questioned whether there are sufficient oil reserves in the Caspian Sea to support the pipeline. It is also possible that heavy tariffs will render the oil transported along this pipeline uneconomical. ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco and Russia's Lukoil have all declined offers to join the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) construction consortium.18

The project did receive a boost when BP announced that the Azeri fields held more oil than previously believed and would be sufficient to fill the link. Following this announcement, ConocoPhillip's and French TotalFinaElf both bought into the project.19 However, even with the increased reserves in the Azari, the BTC pipeline would have to rely on exports from Kazakhstan in order to be viable over the long-term.

Kazakhstan has vacillated in its support for the pipeline. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev has stated that he believes the best way to transfer Kazakh oil and gas to market is via Turkmenistan and Iran.20 President Nazarbayev has at various times indicated that Kazakhstan would pledge oil to the BTC pipeline, but has backpedaled afterwards.

During a speech at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University in Houston in late-December 2001, the Kazakh president stated that the efficiency of the BTC pipeline was not proven and that oil companies would choose the export route for Kashagan oil. This speech reflects the opinions of the Agip KCO consortium, which believes that the Iran route is the most cost-efficient way to transport Kashagan oil to market.21

The Kazakh President finds himself in a very difficult position due to U.S. opposition to a pipeline route through Iran. Kazakh statements in favor of the BTC pipeline would properly be viewed as attempts to placate the U.S.

Critics believe that political factors are blinding the U.S. to financial risks in the pipeline deal. Not only would the pipeline deny Iran a lucrative role as energy exporter, it would also reduce dependence of Central Asian states on Russian pipelines. Furthermore, the pipeline would bolster regional economies in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. The pipeline would help alleviate Turkey's current financial depression.

A U.S. government source has stated, "The BTC has been politically motivated, more than any other oil project in the world."22

In light of recent reports of industry majors pulling out of the region mentioned above, it is possible that Kazakhstan will push for the Iranian route. Presently, Agip is the only major left in the country, and they certainly prefer the Iranian route.

Troubles with the Tengiz and Kashagan consortiums could leave the BTC pipeline without enough oil to even make the project worth completing. If plans are announced to transport Kazakh oil through Iran, it will be very interesting to see how the U.S. responds. There are already influential voices urging Bush to go on to Iran as soon as he is finished with Iraq.

Whether or not the project will prove viable, construction of the BTC pipeline began on Sept. 8.23 On hand for the start of construction was U.S. Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham, who touted the project as "one of the most important energy undertakings."24

One has to wonder whether part of the reason for U.S. interest in the pipeline is an effort to destabilize OPEC. The Lebanese Daily Star recently ran an editorial by Middle East Analyst Patrick Seale which stated that Arab oil is currently worried about the triple threat of U.S. imperialism, Russian and Caspian imports, and hydrogen fuel cells.25 It is to be wondered if Arab oil knows that the only portion of this triple threat which really has teeth to it is U.S. imperialism.

Spencer Abraham's Hydrogen Dream

The media was all aglow recently with Spencer Abraham's announcement that the U.S. now has a roadmap for making the transition to a hydrogen economy. Secretary of Energy Abraham announced the plan at the Global Forum on Personal Transportation held in Dearborn, Mich. In his presentation, he touted the line that hydrogen produced from renewable resources can provide unlimited energy with no impact on the environment. Secretary Abraham noted that the transition to hydrogen would be a long-term process, which will require the participation of both industry and government.

As a first step, in January 2002 Secretary Abraham, along with officials from the automotive industry and Congress, unveiled a FreedomCAR partnership to develop hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.26

The National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap is available on the internet in pdf form (http://www.eren.doe.gov/hydrogen/pdfs/national_h2_roadmap.pdf). This roadmap glows with positive energy. In all areas of production, delivery, storage, conversion and applications, the document beams about what we can achieve if we put our minds to it, but inevitably winds up by saying that we have a long way to go in order to make it a reality.

The document does mention the various challenges to each area of fuel cell development, but makes little of the obstacles and instead comes off sounding like a pep talk. Buried in the text, they admit "The transition to a hydrogen economy... could take several decades to achieve."27

The document speaks of wind, solar and geothermal production, biomass, nuclear-thermo-chemical water splitting, photoelectrochemical electrolysis, and bioengineering. But they admit that all of these processes will require a great deal more research.

The intention is to bootstrap the move by first developing small "reformers" that will run on natural gas, propane, methanol or diesel. But the authors admit that even this technology requires further refinement for improved reliability, longer catalyst life, and integration with storage systems and fuel cells.

The document also includes a short list of people who are in charge of various areas of development and transition. The list includes: Frank Balog of Ford Motor Company, Gene Nemanich of ChevronTexaco Technology Ventures, Mike Davis of Avista Labs Energy, Art Katsaros of Air Products and Chemicals Incorporated, Alan Niedzwiecki of Quantum Technologies, Joan Ogden of Princeton University Systems, and Jeff Serfass of The National Hydrogen Association.28 This team will ensure that the new technology remains firmly in the hands of the top corporations.

The document is at least 80 percent public relations. While admitting that in all areas there are serious problems to be overcome before we will be able to make a transition to hydrogen fuel cells, nowhere does this document take a serious look at the obstacles. Instead, this paper paints a pretty picture of our hydrogen future and leaves the details to future research and investment. So let us look at a few of the difficulties of developing a hydrogen fuel cell economy.

First off, because hydrogen is the simplest element, it will leak from any container, no mater how strong and no matter how well insulated. For this reason, hydrogen in storage tanks will always evaporate, at a rate of at least 1.7 percent per day.29 Hydrogen is very reactive. When hydrogen gas comes into contact with metal surfaces it decomposes into hydrogen atoms, which are so very small that they can penetrate metal. This causes structural changes that make the metal brittle.30

Perhaps the largest problem for hydrogen fuel cell transportation is the size of the fuel tanks. In gaseous form, a volume of 238,000 litres of hydrogen gas is necessary to replace the energy capacity of 20 gallons of gasoline.31

So far, demonstrations of hydrogen-powered cars have depended upon compressed hydrogen. Because of its low density, compressed hydrogen will not give a car as useful a range as gasoline.32 Moreover, a compressed hydrogen fuel tank would be at risk of developing pressure leaks either through accidents or through normal wear, and such leaks could result in explosions.

If the hydrogen is liquefied, this will give it a density of 0.07 grams per cubic centimeter. At this density, it will require four times the volume of gasoline for a given amount of energy. Thus, a 15-gallon gas tank would equate to a 60-gallon tank of liquefied hydrogen. Beyond this, there are the difficulties of storing liquid hydrogen. Liquid hydrogen is cold enough to freeze air. In test vehicles, accidents have occurred from pressure build-ups resulting from plugged valves.33

Beyond this, there are the energy costs of liquefying the hydrogen and refrigerating it so that it remains in a liquid state. No studies have been done on the energy costs here, but they are sure to further decrease the Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) of hydrogen fuel.

A third option is the use of powdered metals to store the hydrogen in the form of metal hydrides. In this case, the storage volume would be little more than the volume of the metals themselves.34 Moreover, stored in this form, hydrogen would be far less reactive. However, as you can imagine, the weight of the metals will make the storage tank very heavy.

Now we come to the production of hydrogen. Hydrogen does not freely occur in nature in useful quantities, therefore hydrogen must be split from molecules, either molecules of methane derived from fossil fuels or from water.

Currently, most hydrogen is produced by the treatment of methane with steam, following the formula: CH4 (g) + H2O + e > 3H2(g) + CO(g). The CO(g) in this equation is carbon monoxide gas, which is a byproduct of the reaction.35

Not entered into this formula is the energy required to produce the steam, which usually comes from the burning of fossil fuels.

For this reason, we do not escape the production of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. We simply transfer the generation of this pollution to the hydrogen production plants. This procedure of hydrogen production also results in a severe energy loss. First we have the production of the feedstock methanol from natural gas or coal at a 32 percent to 44 percent net energy loss. Then the steam treatment process to procure the hydrogen will result in a further 35 percent energy loss.36

It has often been pointed out that we have an inexhaustible supply of water from which to derive hydrogen. However, this reaction, 2H2O + e = 2H2(g) + O2(g), requires a substantial energy investment per unit of water (286kJ per mole).37 This energy investment is required by elementary principles of chemistry and can never be reduced.

Several processes are being explored to derive hydrogen from water, most notably electrolysis of water and thermal decomposition of water. But the basic chemistry mentioned above requires major energy investments from all of these processes, rendering them unprofitable in terms of EROEI.

Much thought has been given to harnessing sunlight through photovoltaic cells and using the resulting energy to split water in order to derive hydrogen. The energy required to produce 1 billion kWh (kilowatt hours) of hydrogen is 1.3 billion kWh of electricity.38 Even with recent advances in photovoltaic technology, the solar cell arrays would be enormous, and would have to be placed in areas with adequate sunlight.

Likewise, the amount of water required to generate this hydrogen would be equivalent to 5 percent of the flow of the Mississippi River.39 As an example of a solar-to-hydrogen set up, were Europe to consider such a transition, their best hope would lie in erecting massive solar collectors in the Saharan desert of nearby Africa. Using present technology, only 5 percent of the energy collected at the Sahara solar plants would be delivered to Europe. Such a solar plant would probably cost 50 times as much as a coal fired plant, and would deliver an equal amount of energy.40 On top of this, the production of photovoltaic cells has a very poor EROEI.

The basic problem of hydrogen fuel cells is that the second law of thermodynamics dictates that we will always have to expend more energy deriving the hydrogen than we will receive from the usage of that hydrogen. The common misconception is that hydrogen fuel cells are an alternative energy source when they are not.

In reality, hydrogen fuel cells are a storage battery for energy derived from other sources. In a fuel cell, hydrogen and oxygen are fed to the anode and cathode, respectively, of each cell. Electrons stripped from the hydrogen produce direct current electricity which can be used in a DC electric motor or converted to alternating current.41

Because of the second law of thermodynamics, hydrogen fuel cells will always have a bad EROEI. If fossil fuels are used to generate the hydrogen, either through the Methane-Steam method or through Electrolysis of Water, there will be no advantage over using the fossil fuels directly. The use of hydrogen as an intermediate form of energy storage is justified only when there is some reason for not using the primary source directly.42 For this reason, a hydrogen-based economy must depend on large-scale development of nuclear power or solar electricity.

Therefore, the development of a hydrogen economy will require major investments in fuel cell technology research and nuclear or solar power plant construction. On top of this, there is the cost of converting all of our existing technology and machinery to hydrogen fuel cells. And all of this will have to be accomplished under the economic and energy conditions of post-peak fossil fuel production.

Based on all of this, I submit that Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham does indeed have ulterior motives for his Hydrogen Energy Roadmap. First, I suggest that this distant goal will help to pacify the public once they begin to suffer from the effects of fossil fuel withdrawal. Secondly, this project will allow the elite to transfer more money from the general public to the pockets of the rich. Third, in the words of Karl Davies, this proposal will deflect a stock market collapse once news of declining oil production be

Cytek

(01/06/2003; 22:03:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93610)

Mr. Russell's Latest

Swap the Purple Cardboard for the Gold Stocks

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
7 January, 2003

Extracted from the 6 January, 2003 issue of Richard Russell's Dow Theory Remarks

Question -- Just for the sake of argument, let's say that 2003 turns out to be a mini-bull market year. If we do go into a mini-bull market, should we play it?

Answer -- Personally, I wouldn't. The situation is too "iffy." You'd be putting your hard-earned money into a bear market rally, which is always dangerous.

I'd rather put my money in an area where the primary trend is bullish. Which is where gold and silver come in. I've been advising positions in gold and silver for the past few years. I continue to advise positions in the precious metals.

Buy the coins, buy the gold stocks, buy the gold funds, but if you haven't already done so, it's not to late to take a position in precious metals. I think it's going to be a long and ultimately speculative bull market in the precious metals.

Gold has recently emerged from a 20-year bear market. After 20 year of going sideways to down, gold is despised, ignored, mocked -- and thoroughly sold-out. The majority of analysts and certainly the public don't understand gold. They've been brain-washed by central bankers who would rather produce and control their own fiat paper money. The central bankers produce paper currency, and they tell us "this is money." And for many decades a brain-washed public has accepted paper as money. But for how much longer?

Hey, I can take a piece of purple cardboard and tell you that "this is money." And if all the central bankers in the world agree with me, and the government tells us that purple cardboard is "legal tender" for all debts, then damn it, purple cardboard will be treated as money.

Until one day people start asking why gold is rising -- and why in hell purple cardboard is sinking against other nations' paper money -- then the trouble begins.

So say hello to today's fiat currency -- some people are beginning, just beginning, to ask why this junk paper should be called money.

Thought -- you can still trade your junk paper in for real money -- gold. And you can still swap your junk legal tender for stock in companies that produce real intrinsic money. They're called gold mines. Sounds like an interesting swap, don't you think? Junk paper for real intrinsic money that doesn't become worthless over time.

But why is this the time to make the swap? It's time because the word is out -- the Fed is manufacturing far too much junk paper. People are beginning to ask questions. And if people continue to ask questions, eventually the truth will out. And the truth will spoil the whole rotten central banks' scam.

The truth is that the dollar is not real money. You don't believe it? Then here's the test -- give me the definition of a dollar. The reason you can't is that there is no definition of a dollar. The dollar can only be described in terms of its relationship to other fiat money.

Oh yes, there used to be a definition of a dollar. A dollar used to be defined in terms of a specific quantity of silver or gold. But today, poor bastards that we are, we've got all our assets denominated in paper for which there is no definition.

The awful truth -- the Federal Reserve is pulling off the biggest scam in United States history.

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
� Copyright 2003 Dow Theory Letters, Inc

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 22:12:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93611)

Much Ado about Nothing -- Whither the Caspian Riches?

That last post got cut off, but it goes into hydrogen economy. In the process I lost the response portion I had written. Simply put Caspian Sea oil reserves are estimated at only about 100 billion bbl after having been revised downward over the last several years. Chevron has drilled several dry holes as have others and they have withdrawn a lot of investment. Lifting costs are roughly $8/bbl as opposed to Saudi's $2/bbl and the oil is of lower quality to boot. Caspian Sea oil is no longer considered to be the saving element for the growing need for "cheap oil". Many others have come to the same conclusions including Colin Campbell (PetroConsultants), Matt Simmons (Simmons & Co. Intl.), Daniel Yergin (Cambridge Energy Research Associates), and Kenneth Deffeyes (Professor Emeritus at Princeton, author of Hubbert� Peak, and former associate of the late M. King Hubbert at Shell). If you need to follow up on the eventual demise of "cheap oil" I would suggest that you reread my essay "The Rise and Fall of Hydrocarbon Man". We are running out of "cheap oil" for all practical purposes. However, I believe that the shortage of "cheap energy" is more critical than that of oil in the near term (electricity and NatGas). However, it is obvious that we must go to war to secure "cheap oil" for the global economy as without "cheap oil" the economy comes to a screeching halt. In the end this is what the war with Iraq is really about.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 22:23:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93612)

Re: R. Powell

Oh yes, I do remember "Duck and Cover" too. I always thought it was rather stupid even though I was just a kid at the time. I remember thinking of the pictures of shadows of vaporized people embedded into concrete in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and thinking "what good will this desk do?". I also remember the Civil Defense stashes of old soggy biscuits in dusty old corners in public buildings that the rats, mice and cockroaches wouldn't even touch. Those were strange times for sure. I also remember the Cuban Missle Crisis and panicked masses stripping bare local supermarkets and thinking why were these idiots not prepared for this eventuality before hand. Today it is less worrisome though there are other reasons to be prepared (unemployment, prolonged illness, shortages due transportation problems, natural disasters, etc.). People today are idiots and are not likely to survive relatively minor disturbances. That is why I continue to beat the drum about being prepared (though I was a Boy Scout many years ago).

Quite the memory - "Duck and Cover", hmmm...

Cheers!

- Black Blade

goldquest

(01/06/2003; 22:29:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93613)

Why The Gulf War Was Not In The National Interest

http://www.theatlantic.com/unbound/flashbks/saudiara/layne.htmAn article from July 1991. Doesn't appear that anything has changed much.

Gold Hill

(01/06/2003; 22:30:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93614)

physicalman re post93599

I burn white and black oak for cord-wood. Trees that are 2 to 3 foot in diameter at the stump. There is no market for them in the pacific north-west. Pine, fir and cedar are the only thing that I can market. I have a small woodlot-48 acres. I'm somewhat of a radical because I do believe in clear-cutting before replanting. Your number on seedlings per acre is right on. Then you've got to keep the deer and elk from destroying them. Yes Black Blade I did get my elk. As for putting in roads, property is of no value if you can't access it. When you do harvest, take the slash and create water barriers to stop erosion. After 20 years of trial and some errors it's worked for me. My new stands of timber I won't be around to see harvested but the satisfaction of planting, culling and caring gives me and my black lab Blitz pleasure every day.

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 22:33:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93615)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm
Spending Our Way to Deeper Debt

Snippit:

This policy of treating debt more favorably than savings is one reason why there is so much debt in this country. There is an abundance of corporate, government and consumer debt that is now reaching epic, even biblical proportions. As a country, the US is borrowing and printing over $2.5 trillion a year. Debt and printed money have been growing at double-digit rates since the mid-90s. This figure is growing faster and even larger and threatens the entire financial system. The financial system will eventually collapse from the weight of this debt or the US will turn into another banana republic as its currency becomes worthless. The problem goes back to the Great Depression where this country changed its economic course. We went from a society that saved, invested and had a strong manufacturing base to a society that borrows, spends, and consumes. It is one reason that economic growth rates have slowed down in this country during the later half of the last century. It is also the reason why the US has become the largest creditor nation in the world, absorbing nearly 80 percent of all of the world's savings to support our voracious appetite for consumption. We don't save, we don't invest, and we don't make many things anymore. Instead of saving we borrow money. Instead of investing in new plant and equipment, we buy other companies or merge with them. Instead of manufacturing things, we consume them. It is this kind of thinking that is making the recovery so fragile, the financial markets so volatile and the financial system so perilous.

Black Blade: A very good article tonight worth reading. Sure lays out why one should have precious metals as an insurance component in every investment portfolio.

Genoo

(01/06/2003; 22:38:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93616)

Re: Chris Powell's response... #93608 to Invisible Hand... #93607

Precisely bang on the money. We apparently need big-time media to promote/spread the truth.

Interesting isn't it..the task is how to successfully manipulate the media to pick up the story so that the general populace can realize/benefit from/the truth.

Which will be one of the few good things media has ever done..life is wierd eh......

On the other hand I suppose there is the ever so remote possibility that enuf light has been shed on the subject that we fly..anytime now...

THX-1138

(01/06/2003; 22:42:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93617)

Christian

Have you thought about getting extra money by leasing portions of your land out to hunters during deer season?

Plant some acorn trees in strategic locations around your property. Deer are attracted to acorns and you will have a good chance of getting a deer during hunting season.

Black Blade

(01/06/2003; 22:46:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93618)

Re: Gold Hill

Bagged an elk - you lucky dog! I probably could have taken a cow but I got greedy for a bull and before I knew it the season was over. I did get my deer and antelope though and bought some buffalo (steaks, roast, burger, and sausage) along with a couple of friends a couple of weeks ago. I still have a lot of partridge and a couple of ducks and a goose as well as a lot of fish in the freezer. I agree it is good to clear out a patch of trees for the critters to browse. It can work well for hunting season not to mention allowing young tree growth to get started disease free. The problem here on Government land is that old growth is no longer cleared out (logging or allowed to burn naturally) and now fire fuel build-up has led to many huge 100 year fires, bark beetle disease, etc. It's quite a shame that these city dwelling arm chair environmentalists are killing our western forests. But then they have the votes and influence in Washington DC. Cheers!

- Black Blade

slingshot

(01/06/2003; 23:09:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93619)

Silvercollector

Msg# 93454We skate around the edge for the future is unknown and may be terrible. My take on the war is even if we win in IRAQ and even capture OBL, his followers around the world will still commit acts of terror. How much of the world is drawn into this conflict will depend if calmer heads prevail. Those who just think that Iraq is the only objective in the war on terrorism are mistakenly wrong. Did you not hear we are seeking out the terrorist? How many reports in the news are of military buildup? Gold and silver are insurance. Hope you are at the right place and the right time when these acts occur. Playing the game is one of survival. I am sure for those who have been here for awhile, have made some preparations. Yes, the doomsters are out in force.
One thing to point out. If you could not get them to guard against financial disaster, how would you expect them to prepare against a terrorist attack? Am I nervous? You bet!
Am I afraid? No. I have done all I can and you can not cover all the bases. Do the best you can. I have no stock.
Out of debt. Silver and gold (physical),cash and listened to Blake Blade.

When I was a small child I did not want to eat supper. Instead I wanted to go out and play. My Mother made a fuss, but my Father said to me, Go out and play,but remember one day you will wish you had this to eat.

Has haunted me ever since.

Slingshot-----------------<>

Sundeck

(01/06/2003; 23:23:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93620)

Silvercollector 93454, 93600 and 93601

The possibilities that you pose in #93454 have an infinite number of branching outcomes. The possible branches change at every instant in time as new circumstances emerge and people with influence choose one course or another in response - or just get swept along by events. The future is not laid out in some grand tapestry where every stitch is predictable and purposeful, but is like a very complex game of snakes and ladders where people and nations roll the dice, venture forth, and take their chances...

So much for the general, what about the specific?...just a couple of your points for the sake of brevity.

1. Silvercollector 93454: "What if, Germany and Japan go into a further tailspin and what if the US mops up Iraq in a 'couple weeks' and oil goes back down to the low-mid 20's/bbl?"

Sundeck: The Japanese and German economies and financial systems are troubled. Few people back in 1990 would have predicted the ten year slide in Japan, and any who did would probably have done so for the wrong reasons. One conclusion we can draw from this is that, in spite of a somewhat smug perception that modern economic and financial gurus and governments understand economic systems, and can direct them to desired ends, in fact they cannot. The same undoubtedly applies to the US. The US administration and its central bankers have various leavers to push and pull, but they do not fully understand (nor can they) the couplings between the leavers and the course of the economy. Even if they did, they may not be able to "direct the vehicle" because of political pressures from interests vested in the broad status quo (industry, elected representatives and their constituents, foreign policy stakeholders, etc). Exemplary proof of this is presented by (a) the world record bubble that developed in the US stock markets during the late '90s and the Japanese stock markets in the late '80s, (b) the uncontrollable extended period of deflation in Japan in the '90s, still unresolved, and (c) the rediculous present strength of the US dollar and magnitude of the US current account deficit. If TBTB really are able to "direct their vehicles" reliably, why then have the Japanese and US (and German) vehicles found their way into such rough and forbidding territory? It gives me no solace to know that some of the same drivers are still in charge of these vehicles or, where they have changed, the new ones attended the same driving school.

Japan appears strongly dependent upon exports to the US, so they want their Yen to depreciate relative to the dollar. However, they cannot have their Yen depreciate too much against other trading nations' currencies, because they will then be caught in a squeeze between what they pay for their imported raw materials and what they get for their exported manufactures. This is a complex juggling act by itself, but there are many other balls in the air: China overtaking Japan in exports to the US and thereby exporting deflation, for one. I have the sneaking feeling that the Japanese economy has painted itself into a corner where many of its export-oriented industries may no longer be competitive and where both capex and fiscal spending has been on white elephants of one form or another. The banks hold major interests in such elephants. The Japanese consumer probably will be the saviour BUT for them to spend more, industry has to restructure to better meet domestic needs. A lot of pain is still to come in this process, IMO.

And then there is another ball in the air; "the war" and the POO. All developed countries are strongly affected by POO. No-one can predict what will happen here. If one was to try to characterise the options one might consider two extreme scenarios:

The Benign.
- Diplomatic solution in which Iraq and Saddam "capitulate", Iraq enters into new stable period of government with benevolent outcomes for its peoples, world powers agree to live and develop harmoniously (ha, bl..dy ha) and share the Earth's fossil fuels under equitable arrangement (ho, ho). POO declines to low $20 per barrel for a few years, but inexorably rises as more and more pressure is placed upon dwindling reserves.

The Malignant:
- "Solution" by major conflict in which the US (assisted by UK and a few others) attempts to grab a resistant Iraq and in which conflagration occurs on many fronts - potentially including catastrophic "terrorist" retaliation in downtown US and UK. POO rises to what the market and/or the cartel can bear. ME is maintained by an occupying force against persistent geurilla attack and growing tensions between the world's powers over control of oil. Certainly not "Pax Americana"!

2. As R Powell #93603 points out, there was a time only a few decades ago when discussion of possible nuclear conflagration was open and acceptable, although with great dread by many. In that time, patterns of response in the (US) population were defined and practised, and this was considered sensible and necessary. Today I sense that the general population (of the US) is reluctant to mention "the bomb". The current administration, if it fears nuclear guerilla ("terrorist") retaliation and has evidence that it may occur, appears reluctant to warn the people at large. Yet to many, including Sir Silvercollector for example, the possibility is loud and clear. Why the reluctance to broach the subject? Perhaps TPTB do not want to spook the hen house - and there may be sense in that. After all, Evolution crafted the "head in the sand" response for the ostrich, and I know people who close their eyes when confronted by imminent danger...

To my mind, Dubya and his mignions cum minders is playing a high-stakes game in the Iraqi Saloon. The players (including the US) do not all have their hands above the table. People standing around also have bets on the outcomes. They are all "low slung" and they may not take losses lightly. Dubya needs to understand that "people respond in kind".

3. Finally, what are the consequences for the POO and POG? My feeling is that the POO is more sensitive to the particular outcome than is the POG. Given a speedy and benign solution, the POO may recede to "normal levels" of about $20-25 per barrel. Given a malignant solution, the POO could go sky high. On the other hand, while there may be a "war premium" built into the POG, I think the POG is more fundamentally connected to supply and demand forces largely separate from the present war prospects. I suspect it is in the early phase of a long-term bull market, war or no war.

Of course, FWIW and IMHO only...

slingshot

(01/06/2003; 23:30:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93621)

Black Blade

Canned goods from the SixtiesI have two cans from the Cuban Crisis. One is crackers and the other biscuits.

Got Peanut Butter? :0)
Slingshot------------<>

physicalman

(01/06/2003; 23:31:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93622)

Goldhill

I'm suprised there isn't demand for those woods out there. I know of a lot of flooring and millwork factories here that ship a lot of product out west. Have the enviros shut down all the mills out there too? From where i live in Va. down into NC is where a huge amount of furniture is manufactured. The industry has been laying off like crazy for the last 12 years. Furniture never recovered from the 1990 recs. We don't have a problem with the deer eating seedlings (yellow pine) They prefer grass, acorns in the fall and browse a lot of briars in the winter. There are deer everywhere, not many kids hunt anymore and the older guys aren't able, must be 2 million whitetails and increasing by 200 thousand a year. One midsize VA. city started a bow season last year. The 3 years before that there were over a 1000 car accidents a year by deer collisions. About 3 a day for a city of 45 square miles.
We have a few elk migrating over from Kentucky but i don't think enough of them will survive in the depressed coalfields to make it over to the Shenendoah Valley. Too much poaching. The deer population there is very low compared to the rest of the state. The shenendoah valley had 100's of thousands of buffalo and elk at the beginning of the 1700's. Was the winter hunting ground for native americans from new york to georgia.
Your right about clear cutting. Was out west fighting fires (Oregon) with a helicopter this summer and the amount of forest fuel was incredible.

Gold Hill

(01/06/2003; 23:36:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93623)

Black Blade

Southern Oregon was devasted this summer with forest fires. Talked to a logger friend of mine earlier this evening who told me the Tiller fire will not even be logged, too many enviro issues. That wood will be left to rot. My property has no old growth timber so I'm removed from a lot of the rules and regs, although I do have to apply for permits to log if the logs are going to a mill.
I back up against BLM land. (Our land) My buddy and I also filled our buck tags, although both were small, dressed out less than 90 pounds each. Ducks, I don't know how to cook. Being single, if I can"t throw it on the grill I'm lost. But I love shotting those clay ones with my 12 gauge. Blade, I'm in your camp. I heat my house with wood, my water is gravity flow from a spring, and I've got more dinty moore and canned pears than ticks on a lab!!

physicalman

(01/06/2003; 23:50:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93624)

Sundeck-Silvercollector

Your right, the outcomes are pretty infinite and preparation is the only course. I have my physicals-hence the name, rural land to go to, basic nessecities (this is a broad range if you set down and think it over)equipment, stockpiled fuel, heritage seeds, production of electricity from hydro, fuel production from vegetation, spare parts, base metal stockpile, etc. etc. and hope i don't have to use a bit of it except for my own playing around. Prepare for the worst but pray for the best!

Gold Hill

(01/07/2003; 00:11:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93625)

physicalman

The big mills have been shut down because of the Canadian competion. Locally there are a few small outfits that mill, dry, and finish oak and madrone (hardwood native to the pacific north-west). Outside of that it's pretty much dried up.
There are more deer killed on I-5 than I could ever shoot!!
Were you on the fire that got close to Agness? That fire was about the size of the state of Delaware.

Black Blade

(01/07/2003; 00:14:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93626)

Wild swings predicted for natural gas

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/GAM/20030106/RGASS
Snippit:

CALGARY -- As winter weather pushes natural gas prices higher, experts say the cost of the industrial and energy-producing fuel will swing wildly for years to come. Natural gas, which closed up 9 cents (U.S.) on Friday at $5.34, ended 2002 in the $5 range, twice its low for the year. The dramatic climb has raised questions over whether the commodity is heading for another roller-coaster ride reminiscent of the record winter of 2000-01, when prices tripled to $10 per million British thermal units (mmBTU) in the space of a single quarter. Forecasters predict that natural gas won't reach such heights this cycle. But they also warn that a tightrope of supply and demand means volatility has become a permanent feature of the commodity -- at least until major new sources of supply are found or the structure of the market changes dramatically. "There's no question that for natural gas, the supply-demand balance is quite tight," said Tom Ebbern, managing director of research with Tristone Capital Partners Inc. in Calgary. "We're in for a fairly long series of highly volatile prices." Natural gas used to be cheap and abundant. But the days of surplus are over. As a result, temporary natural gas shortages can drive the commodity to astronomical heights.

There are two main factors for that. The largest is the maturing of the traditional North American supply basins, including the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. As conventional gas pools begin to dry up, production growth has become one of the biggest challenges in the industry. Companies have to explore more, and spend more, just to keep production flat. Sucking gas up out of shrinking pools takes greater effort and resources. Brian Prokop, an analyst with Peters & Co., said gas exports to the United States are poised to shrink for the first time in history. "For 16 years, we've had increasing exports and increasing gas production," he said. "This is the first year-over-year time we'll have a decrease in both." The upshot is that increasing gas supply is no longer a matter of turning on taps to get the gas flowing into the market. Now, producers trying to pump out more gas have to explore for it before they can develop it, creating a time lag of years. Either that, or they can choose to suck gas out of existing reservoirs faster. But that only exacerbates the problem of eventually replacing reserves. Even gas storage has been coming under pressure. "There's been very little new storage coming on," Tristone's Mr. Ebbern said. "And the less storage you have, the more volatile the market becomes." In the end, analysts said, a "perfect storm" of factors will leave the natural gas market vulnerable. "The volatility is here to stay," Mr. Ebbern said.

Black Blade: I agree for the most part. NatGas supply shortages will be permanent going forward. The problem is increased demand for clean burning NatGas over the so-called "dirty" fuels. The energy crisis of 2001-2002 was demand drive and now it is supply driven. Target areas for exploration are increasingly off limits and infrastructure is antiquated and decaying. There are bottlenecks throughout the system. Higher energy costs are going to sap the economy more as it struggles to extricate itself from a deepening recession. We can hope for warmer weather and a severe depression to crush the economy so there's enough energy to go around. Even so, it won't be enough. We had our chance to build up supply but we blew it. Now Wall Street is incapable of providing financing for continuing and new projects due to lowered credit ratings and mistrust a la Enron. The only other winners are precious metals of course, maybe defense industry, and eventually food production.

Black Blade

(01/07/2003; 00:29:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93627)

Re: Gold Hill and physicalman

I have killed more deer (muleys and white-tails) with my truck than my rifle the last few years. They are thick as fleas here, but fortunately I have a heavy duty grill guard I had specially built at a local shop. Now I hook em and they fly off to the side of the road. Too bad I can't salvage any meat because it's illegal, so only the crows and maggots benefit. I would normally drive about 150 miles each way when I am doing consulting work and I would count maybe a dozen fresh carcasses (and road smeared "star bursts") each day during summer and fall.

I noticed a lot of lumber mills shutdown in recent years too. I did some consulting work in Troy and Libby, MT a few years ago and the towns were quite depressed as the mills and mines were shutdown. A lot of families were devastated and the only businesses doing much business were the few remaining bars. Bruce Babbit and company pushed a lot of people into deep poverty. As I said before, always be prepared and have an escape plan ready with a stash of cash and several ounces of protection if ya know what I mean.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/07/2003; 00:42:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93628)

Gasoline Prices Likely To Keep Rising

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A19425-2003Jan6?language=printer
Snippit:

The average price of regular unleaded gas in the region had stabilized since April at $1.40 a gallon, give or take a few pennies. But since Venezuelan oil workers struck Dec. 2, the price of crude has risen to well above $30 a barrel and, since the price of crude accounts for 41 percent of the price at the gas pump, motorists are feeling the pinch, too.Several oil analysts said yesterday that even higher gas prices are possible, depending on several factors, but chiefly on whether the Venezuelan oil workers seeking to oust President Hugo Chavez continue their strike and whether the United States goes to war with Iraq soon. Larry Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation in New York, said there has been a 20-cent-per-gallon jump in the wholesale price of gasoline since November, so "less than half of the wholesale price has been passed through." "The strike in Venezuela doesn't look like it's going away any time soon," said Adam E. Sieminski, oil analyst at Deutsche Bank in London. "The oil markets can stand having one thing go wrong, but not two. That's what happening with Venezuela and Iraq." That prospect does not bode well for consumers, who already are beginning to notice the recent price jump at the pump. Even with promises from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries other than Venezuela to increase production, that oil "is 40 days away from the U.S. market. Venezuela was five days away.

Black Blade: I see that in the Midwest prices are really soaring now. The problem for the Midwest is that Venezuelan oil is the primary oil source. I recently paid $1.24 for unleaded but that was in Casper where local oil is refined. The next lowest price was $1.34 in Buffalo, Wyoming. Since last week prices have risen again. Higher gasoline prices of course mean less cash in consumers pockets and reduces their ability to spend like drunken sailors. It is said that consumer spending is two thirds of the economy.

physicalman

(01/07/2003; 00:47:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93629)

Goldhill

Yea, that and three others. Had a Bell-205 out there. Spotted firefighters and dropped water when they didn't need us for transports or pick-ups. Could lift 385 gallons of water at 8500 feet and could make 15 to 20 drops an hourwhen the forest service would let us go. A big fire back here is anything over 500 acres and they are just usually the dead leaves burning on the ground. The fires out west when they crown in dense growth are unbelievable.
Got eleven whitetails and have a kill permit from the farmer next door for 20 more if i want them, can't eat that much. Might shoot a few and give them away.

physicalman

(01/07/2003; 01:00:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93630)

Black Blade

Gas here is 1.29 (low taxes in Va.) The offices for the national forest service are here and in Ashville, NC, The only cutting program they had for the whole George Washington Nat. Forest ( 1 million acres) was 300 acres and the enviro's filed suit in Atlanta and stopped that. The new Clean Water Act makes timber cutting on 10 acres or more subject to lots of new regulations on private landowners so i see a lot more smaller cutting operations going on in the last two years. If not you could not even afford to cut your own timber.

Black Blade

(01/07/2003; 01:00:22 MDT - Msg ID: 93631)

Market Indicators

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Currently US market index futures are lower, Gold is off a buck, the USD is recovering slightly, oil is lower and NatGas is slightly higher. The equities markets gained strongly yesterday on weak volume. In other words the average Joe is sitting this one out just as before the holidays. Most of the trading once again appears to be primarily institutional trading. The hopes and prayers of Wall Street is that the prez will give an inspiring speech in Chicago today that Wall Street can play off of. The big story will be the abolishment of taxes on dividends. If this proposal flies we could see a rush into strong companies that give back some earnings to the shareholder. Other companies shares will crumbles into a heap, dry up, and blow off into the dust bin of unloved stocks. A lot of phoney earnings (pro forma and operating) will be exposed for the fraud that they truly are. It will be very difficult for the financial media to spin a positive story after the emperors are revealed to be wearing no clothes. It should be rather "entertaining".

- Black Blade

ski

(01/07/2003; 02:14:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93632)

What does this tell you???

Sir Goldrush 1/2/03 #93176 .... was thoughtful enough to post this PM related info from Bloomberg:

"Investors added $612 million to the (PM) funds this year ...... Gold funds had net assets of $3.2 billion at the end of November, or about 0.1% of the $2.8 trillion in all stock funds.... The average gold fund went up 64% in 2002."

What!! A lousy $612 million moved prices up 64%!!!

IMHO if the above information doesn't stop you in your tracks, one of us has it way, way wrong! This data gives us a very accurate picture as to how unbelievabily tiny the whole PM sector is and SCREAMS of an approaching price explosion in our favored sector. Imagine, a little more than half a billion dollars moved prices up 62%!!! The PM funds now only represent one tenth of one percent of ALL STOCK FUNDS!! To move this statistic up to 1%, you have to multiply by ten!! Can you imagine what happens if gold and silver stocks attract a mere 5% of all stock market funds?? In this day and age, $10 billion is only chump-change!!

Could this quote from Harry Browne be appropriate to this situation?? "A large firm may have extensive research facilities. But profitable ideas seldom come from amassing huge amounts of information. They usually come from independent thinking about the information that's available to everyone."

How tiny is the $612 million that resulted in the 64% increase? Congress is presently debating the idea of extending jobless benefits to help about 800,000 people. The pricetag is estimated at $5 to $10 billion.

Maybe I'm in left field but it clearly looks like I can take everything I already know about PM's, add in this new info from Goldrush, and take the next year off from monitoring this forum! Why? Because I can't hardly imagine any scenario where PM fund investments won't attract even more money over the long run! In practice, I had really thought that I was all done with my PM buying .... That is, until this information came out .... I just had to picked up a lot more....

When opportunity knocks ..... don't accuse me of not answering the door! Thoughts?

Once again .... Happy New Year to Us!

Black Blade

(01/07/2003; 02:24:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93633)

Asia's big nightmare: Falling US$

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/views/story/0,2276,68840,00.html?
Snippit:

ASIA'S worst economic nightmare may be afoot - not worsening tensions with North Korea but a falling US dollar. Concerns about the US economy, possible war against Iraq and escalating tensions between North Korea and the US are chipping away at the dollar. While it's been vulnerable for years, a perfect financial and political storm of sorts is forming to weaken the world's reserve currency. The dollar lost almost 11 per cent versus the yen in 2002, and may fall much further. For Asia, the trend is a major blow. Sure, a lower dollar could help Asian stock and bond markets attract capital, lowering interest rates and boosting wealth. And firmer currencies may help at a time when oil prices are rising. But East Asia's prospects remain too tied to selling goods overseas for capital flows to matter much. The region's economies have made some progress weaning themselves off exports since the 1997-1998 Asia financial crisis, but not nearly enough. In such an environment, weaker currencies against the US dollar are the key to success. That explains why officials in Tokyo, Seoul and elsewhere are talking more and more about taking steps to halt the dollar's slide. As Washington and Pyongyang continue their war of words, Asian governments are girding for their own battle in currency markets. It may not do any good. Central banks can intervene all they want, but the efforts may not work in the face of mounting pessimism over the world's most widely used currency. 'The news is all bad for the US dollar,' says Clifford Bennett, chief strategist at FxMax, a currency-forecasting house. He thinks talk of the dollar dropping to 110 yen may prove too conservative.

Black Blade: I agree. The US dollar is grossly overvalued and it is likely to fall hard and fast. The Japanese and Europeans are likely to step in to prop up the dollar on their own, but don't expect the US to give a helping hand. The "Currency War" continues even though it is an exercise in futility. US debt is crushing and getting worse. All That the Japanese are going is committing financial Hari Kiri. Meanwhile Japanese sold off gold in overnight trading on the Tocom even though physical purchases by individual Japanese is reported to be strong.

BTW, I am going to a hold strategy on my remaining PM stocks but am inclined to go strictly physical Gold and Silver myself at the present time adding to the insurance portion as I await the results of the "Stimulus Proposal". I suspect that the proposal will be a useless scrap of paper after the politicos get through with it making it too difficult for anyone to benefit. A lot of noise but in the end no substance as usually is the case. Yet I am cautiously optimistic. Overall the case for physical precious metals is more compelling right now. The Japanese and Chinese citizenry are taking a lot of the metal off the market while the speculators and banksters play games with the price. This offers a bit more opportunity to accumulate hard assets on temporary price dips even as the fundamentals remain very strong.

ElGordo

(01/07/2003; 02:43:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93634)

Japan and now China end lifetime jobs

China Gov't to End Lifetime Jobs Promise

The Associated Press
Tuesday, January 7, 2003; 12:41 AM

BEIJING �� China is taking another step away from communist tradition by ending its promise of jobs for life to some 30 million government employees, state media reported Tuesday.

The government plans to institute work contracts that will require employees to pass tests on job skills, the China Daily newspaper and the Xinhua News Agency said, citing Vice Minister of Personnel Shu Huiguo.

The reports said Shu announced the change following a weekend meeting of personnel officials from around the country.

"This means the end of the lifelong tenure system," the China Daily said. It said the change is "a vital part of the country's modernization program."

Two decades of market-oriented reform have eliminated the need for many officials who once ran the economy, while drastically changing the skills required for other government jobs.

Chinese leaders also are trying to cut the cost of a system that used to guarantee civil servants jobs for life and benefits such as housing and health care.

Since the late 1990s, individual government agencies have cut thousands of jobs and adopted hiring policies aimed at improving professional skills among civil servants.

The new system will affect some 1.3 million institutions and lead to more layoffs, the China Daily and Xinhua said. They did not specify which entities might be affected or how many jobs lost.
_______________
Maybe the chinese would want a little gold in the nest egg with
no lifetime security. What kind of communism is this? ;-)

Ski if just a small percentage of investors moved to gold it
would make a big difference. Total capitalization of gold companies is tiny part of 2.8 Trillion in equities.

Christian

(01/07/2003; 02:43:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93635)

Ben Bernanke's remarks and the FED buying stocks.

Ben Bernanke's on the printing press machine has to be looked at from a different perspective. The FED has been bailing out a number of big mutual funds of their losses. The truth is that 46% of the dollar volume on the NYSE comes from the FED. Most of the volume on the NYSE is institutional. For some time now the little guy has been selling and taking losses. The IRS claims that stock loss carry forwards are increasing. That does not happen if trades were profitable. Truth is people are leaving the stock market and Greespan is forced to leave them something on the way out in order for the sellers to have something left of their so called investment to start again. The Middle East investors are also leaving and most of them have huge loss carry forwards. The FED is buying a lot of state debt. That means payments will now go to the FED. The FED is buying Treasuries which means payment will go to the FED. People should read the fine print on their DTC obligations in their contracts. People actually believe that if you buy 100 shares of IBM or any other stock listed that you own 100 shares. That is all crap- you own a statment that says you own 100 shares and nothing more. Is the FED buying for the stock to go up or are they buying to short it. People say here and on many chat forums that the money supply is increasing. Bull- only debt obligations are increasing when credit creation is the currency. How do you think debt is now many many times the size of dollars in circulation. Explain to me why commodity gold is trading near $350 and credit creation gold between central banks trades at $10,500. The Euro with its present gold supply is backed 15% with credit creation gold based on their banking reserve requirements. Should USA gold supply exist as reported by the Treasury gold will move to $467 and credit creation gold to $14,010 and our dollar currency will be 15% backed with credit creation gold based on our (FED's) banking reserve requirements. THE TRUTH IS our physical money supply is collapsing and debt outstanding is growing at its fastest pace ever. Just like it was in Russia. Hard cash in coin form will increase in value as banks close and turn your check book balance and your savings into long term goverment IOU's. It is only a matter of time before many credit creation $250,000 homes can be purchased for $25,000 cash. Look at the property tax statments in Japan. 20,000,000 yen homes of 10 years ago For Sale and not selling for 2,000,000 yen. That is allmost an Enron type investment. Reflate the economy, reflate the economy, with what????? As a buyer I prefer to buy low, like $125.00 an acre for good woodland here and a $1.00 an acre in Russia instead of some outlandish price.

Saxulum^

(01/07/2003; 02:45:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93636)

THE CENTRAL BANKER AS THE QUARTERMASTER-GENERAL OF DEFLATION

http://www.goldisfreedom.com/Greenspan-andCo.htmAntal E. Fekete, January 1, 2003, as good as always...

[...] "Do you know what the banks took out of the economy last year? Nearly $400 billion. The Wall Street firms who get transaction fees for moving the newly created money around took another roughly $250 billion. Between them they took out nearly three times the amount of money that the auto industry took out. But from the auto industry we got 20 million cars. What did we get from these guys? We got cancelled checks and bank statements. This is monstrous, don't you think?"[...]

[...]Free coinage, a right of the people enshrined in the U.S. Constitution, would remove the greatest threat this Republic has faced in its entire history up to now, greater even than that of foreign terrorists. This is the threat to destroy the capital of the producing sector, through the machinations of the financial sector, aided and abetted by the Federal Reserve.[...]

Recommended reading!Enjoy

cheers

ElGordo

(01/07/2003; 03:09:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93637)

Municipal Bonds more risky

New York, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- New York City's cost to borrow $650 million this week may be the highest compared with benchmark interest rates in more than six years, a sign that its bond rating will be downgraded over budget deficits.

``People have finally resigned themselves to the fact that the city's got a lot of problems,'' said Scott Albrecht, who manages about $1.5 billion of municipal bond funds at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh and has been avoiding New York City debt.

The extra return, or yield spread, on New York City's five- year bonds compared with bonds carrying the highest, or triple-A, credit rating grew to 0.98 percentage point, the widest since May 1996, according to Bloomberg data. On 10-year bonds, the spread increased to 0.89 percentage point, the widest since April 1997.

This week's bond sale is the first by New York City since Mayor Michael Bloomberg raised the property tax to help address a $1.1 billion current-year shortfall and a $6.4 billion gap in the next fiscal year, which starts in July. Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP.

Investors typically demand a higher yield to buy a bond as its perceived default risk rises. Investors in this case, though, are anticipating a rating cut, not a missed interest payment. Fewer than 1 in 1,500 municipal bonds default, according to Moody's Investors Service.

``The likelihood is they will get downgraded,'' said Ken Salinger, who manages the $550 million American Century Tax-Free Bond Fund in Mountain View, California. ``Even if the economy turns around, there's a lagged effect; the underlying economy is going to improve before the tax base reflects that.''

Rating companies in recent weeks have taken note of New York City's worsening financial situation without lowering their grades on the city's debt. Standard & Poor's placed a ``negative outlook'' on the city's A rating on Nov. 26, and Fitch Ratings followed suit Dec. 23, attaching a ``negative outlook'' to its A+ rating on the city's $27.2 billion of general obligation bonds.

ElGordo

(01/07/2003; 03:14:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93638)

German economy sinks deeper

Spartacus

(01/07/2003; 03:26:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93639)

Canada sells gold, keeps shift into euro reserves

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030106/economy_canada_reserves_1.html
OTTAWA, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Canada took advantage of the sizzling price of gold last month with the sale of one-eighth of its remaining gold reserves, part of a long-standing drive to get a bigger bang for its foreign reserve bucks.
------------
The finance ministry said it also maintained its practice of boosting its holdings of euro-denominated securities, bringing these to the equivalent of US$13.77 billion, or 42 percent of the total US$32.69 billion in foreign deposits and securities held by the government.

Just two years earlier, euros accounted for US$6.62 billion, only 23 percent of the total. The U.S. dollar share has gone down during that time to 55 percent from 75 percent. Small holdings in yen constitute most of the rest.

ElGordo

(01/07/2003; 03:43:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93640)

Tax Revolt

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=2001054CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuela's opposition, stepping up an economic war against President Hugo Chavez's government, planned to kick off a national tax revolt on Tuesday by holding a protest march to two revenue collection offices in Caracas.

More than five weeks into an opposition strike that is still throttling oil output and shipments in the world's No. 5 petroleum exporter, foes of the leftist president have added a refusal to pay taxes to their grueling protest campaign.

Opposition leaders are fighting to maintain the momentum of the 37-day-old shutdown that is strangling the South American nation's oil lifeline and costing the government millions of dollars a day in lost hard-currency export revenues.

Black Blade

(01/07/2003; 04:24:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93641)

Breaking News!!! French Pres. Chirac Orders Deployment!

Just coming over the wires - Pres. Chirac orders French troops tp prepare for deployment. Presumably the French are going to join the party. It is rumored that Chirac was not amused by Saddam's speech yesterday. This is going to get "interesting" as a more extensive coalition appears to be forming.

- Black Blade

Hipplebeck

(01/07/2003; 04:24:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93642)

ski-you have the cart before the horse

inflows into stock funds is not what raised the price of gold.
It is the other way around.
The rise in price and the percieved possibility of a further rise is what attracts money into the gold funds.
Gold stocks have no direct effect on the price of gold.
Unlimited amounts of stocks can be printed.

Black Blade

(01/07/2003; 04:35:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93643)

Chirac tells troops be ready, alludes to Iraq

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030107/iraq_chirac_1.html
Snippit:

PARIS, Jan 7 (Reuters) - French President Jacques Chirac told French troops on Tuesday to stand ready for "anything that may happen" in the year ahead, and highlighted the need for vigilance over Iraq's respect for disarmament resolutions."It's a soldier's duty to be prepared for anything that may happen. We must be especially attentive to the way in which Iraq adheres to U.N. Security Council Resolution 1441," he told the French armed forces at a ceremony celebrating the New Year. "We face numerous challenges in the year ahead," he said. It is safe to assume we will face continuing demands in theatres of (military) operation where our forces are already deployed," he said. The French army has sent a 2,500-strong force to try to keep peace in its former colony of Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer. "And there may be new ones (theatres) unfortunately," Chirac added in what appeared to be a clear reference to the risk of military action against Iraq.

Black Blade: The Brits are also calling up more reserves today as the carrier Ark Royal prepares to join the Persian Gulf fleet. This is really picking up steam now.

silvercollector

(01/07/2003; 05:52:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93644)

R.Powell, physicalman, slingshot, Sundeck

Thanks for your response.

I believe I am nervous but not afraid, if that's possible. Sundeck: Your 'Benign/Malignant' analogy I think parallels, at least to some degree, my concern that the outcome is more black & white than alot of people tend to believe.

The statement of the 'war' going well or not well of course has latitude but judging from your notes I sense we all have the same 'nervousness'.

Thanks again.

Belgian

(01/07/2003; 05:57:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93645)

Oil > Gold > dollar > euro

Saudi Arabia AND Russia are acting in concert to supply more oil . Whilst serving their own interests, they both (!!!) provide the world with the much needed (indispensable) oil-wealth to keep everything else at some intrinsic value. No oil = nothing of value anymore. It is as dramatic as it sounds !

BB's postings illustrate the ever gaining importance of oil, at present and well into the next decades. Again I ask your attention for the very possible evolution of ideas on "VALUE", that the present oil-reserve-owners might have in petto. One doesn't keep saving the world (with oil-supply) for nothing (confetti).

The GWB confetti and tax helicopter is flying again.

Canada sold 2,6 tonnes (dec.'02) and has as little as 18,6 tonnes left. Aboveground vault-Gold that is. Taiwan imported 4,26 tonnes (dec.'02) and imported a total of 40,29 tonnes (!!!) for the whole year of '02. Dubai Gold-center activities, down a bit due to rapid rising POG.
I like this kind of information from WGC.

I would like to add some suggestive thinking : Is Canada selling Gold-exchange reserves through BIS for euro ? And is Taiwan trying to catch some Gold-crumbles to imitate BIS policy ? Official CB Gold-sales from Gold producing states (Canada/Australia/South Africa) must be traced as to know where the Gold is landing. In private/official vaults or jewelry ! These kind of statistics would be of very important relevance.
Gold-consumption against oil-consumption. Available Gold-reserves against oil-reserves. Fundamentals versus hollow speculations. Enough oil against a shortage of Gold, obscenely low priced.

Yes if Caspian oil is a flop and fuel-cells are futuristic...we automatically land at Arabian oil-reserves again and the ME situation as an enormous turning point.
How can one possibly make guesses about a POG of 372$ > 400$ on TA/TI, without knowing what kind of other (gigantic) forces are building ?

The confetti-tax helicopter that caused some temporary dollar-strength, today, will NOT be able to fly into eternity ! The helicopter will run out of...OIL !

Hipplebeck

(01/07/2003; 06:12:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93646)

Aristotle

Aristotle (01/06/03; 11:35:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 93557)
Hipplebeck on money: Two questions
#1) Would you single-handedly deny all of your fellow mankind access to credit and shut down their ability to borrow if creditworthy?
(i.e., no home loans, no business loans, no car loans, no student loans, etc.)

#2) Bullion banking. Thumbs up or thumbs down? (Do you approve or disapprove of these operations, including Gold loans?)

Related bonus question: Would you knowingly deface your neighbor's private property?

Thanks in advance for giving these your full attention.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

---------------------------------
No I would not knowingly deface my neighbors property, and I would not limit any one on what they want to do.
Any kind of banking that people want to engage in is fine with me. I believe in free choice as long as it doesn't hurt any one else.

But,
Ask yourself why the governments and the IMF outlaw gold as money. Why do they take away the choice?

Ari, I say you defend the dollar because you say gold is not money.

I am going to make my case as simply as possible.

In the most basic, men trade.

They began by trading this for that.

Gold naturally took it's place as money because of it's properties and desirability.

Men always look for ways to facilitate trade, and since gold is heavy, someone issued a piece of paper that was a receipt for gold.

So far so good, right?

The problem arose when a bankster figured out that he could issue more receipts than he had gold, and as long as no one noticed it worked.

This is called fraud.

It is a crime.

It has become organized crime.

Do you get it?

Hipplebeck

(01/07/2003; 06:17:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93647)

Chirac

My guess is that he is alluding to Algeria.

Christian

(01/07/2003; 06:50:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93648)

Access to Fed Credit leads to ?

? Bush's Executive Order for Concentration Camps and Property Confiscation. If you don't believe me read it for yourself. ---Legalized counterfeiting= issuing fake warehouse receipts on gold are claimed as assets for making loans that are again claimed as an asset for more loans = credit creation gold priced many times commodity gold.

Calidor

(01/07/2003; 06:57:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93649)

Christian and others

http://dtcservices.dtcc.com/A Golden New Years greeting to all who sit at the Mighty Oaken Table.

Yesterday in a post, Christian mentioned the DTC so here's the link. As they take a percentage of EVERY SM transaction and have a hand in all, that gives them right much clout and fiat (which they can exchange for physical).

Cometose

(01/07/2003; 07:27:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93650)

Christian 93648

Christian:

Which executive order are you referring to .....If you have webaddress to lead me to that reading thanks in a advance

Boilermaker

(01/07/2003; 07:29:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93651)

DID THE FED MONETIZE GOLD?

http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&board=1600640700&tid=hgmcy&sid=1600640700∾tion=m∣=19824Here's a post from the Yahoo HMY message board that I first saw at the Le Metropole Cafe. I wonder if someone here such as sector would know if there are any statistical FED or Treasury data that might support or refute this theory.
To me it sounds like a creative way for the FED to provide a gold exit strategy, albeit a messy one. All comments welcome

-------------------------------

DID THE FED MONETIZE GOLD?
by: mpennington14 01/05/03 05:56 pm
Msg: 19824 of 19906

An interesting speculation:

"If the FED needed to cap POG back in 1995 to support Rubin's "strong dollar" scam, what about asking JPM to borrow gold from Central Banks (arranged by the FED) including England, Germany, Russia, Switzerland etc., etc. As long as POG went down, JPM could keep carry trade profit margin boosting their earnings. To protect the Bank, what if the FED told JPM that they had to sell the gold to them (the FED). Remember no one knows who bought all the auctioned gold. The FED may have prearranged that if POG goes up and the CB's want their gold back, the FED will return the same gold they originally bought from JPM. In effect, they monetized gold for the purpose of holding the POG down artificially for years. The taxpayer then pays interest on the money created by the FED used to buy gold to keep it from increasing in price. Perhaps this is why JPM now says they have no gold exposure and why they were able to withstand the recent rapid increase in the POG. Afterall, the FED is now willing to let POG increase to devalue the US$. It doesn't seem logical that they would want this if the JPM gold derivative exposure was still present. Perhaps I'm wrong, but it's interesting to speculate what magic the FED used to pull this off. Regardless, the losers sacrificed by the FED in all this are the hedged miners. Many of them (hopefully ABX) will go broke as a result of this scam."

Boilermaker

sourdough

(01/07/2003; 08:19:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93652)

Canada sells gold, keeps shift into euro reserves

Re Canada selling gold and investing in other CURRENCY.
I inquired once as to what happens to the money raised from gold sales. The answer I received was that it goes "into general account". Wish I had kept the e-mail reply as I thought it was just used for government expenditures and or paying down the debt.
Therefore, sale of gold by Canada could be used by the finance ministry to assist in making the books show as surplus. Something Chretien is very proud of.

One question that would be of interest is:
Is the CANADA PENSION PLAN INVESTING IN GOLD OR GOLD RELATED STOCKS ,ETC.? Does the CPP follow the 5% rule?
Is the CPP increasing that percentage or initiating a percentage of investments in gold bullion?
If not, should they be? If not, why not?
I would be pleased to find out that official sales of gold by Canada are being bought by the CPP.

sector

(01/07/2003; 08:30:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93653)

@BoilerMaker The Treasury DID loan gold to JPM but...

...it is very unlikely the Fed bought it back in "Open outcry" COMEX or LBMA sessionswhich these markets utilize in the floor bidding process. The whole idea was to get the floor price down.

The Bank of England auctions, on the other hand, were perhaps rigged to DELIVER gold that was pre-sold to select clients [Other central banks]. This is my opinion based only upon a guess.

The amount of gold loaned and hence sold into the open market was 16,000 tonnes at June 2001. This fact is not subject to interpretation since it has been reported in the Bank of International Settlements Triennial Report. "Journalists" and "Gold Market Analysts" who keep denying this fact should be seen for what they are...paid shills for the bullion banks. It's as rediculous as denying the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency reports of $41 Billion in gold derivatives for JPM. The reports are public information.

For the uninitiated the idea that elaborate government shams [Gold swaps and loans, BOE auctions etc] exist to obfuscate the truth in commodity operations is difficult to accept in the US but it is nevertheless true. You will hear more outlandish stories from "Official" sources trying to convince the public that a vast mountain of metal is just waiting to be dropped on the markets.

A war is about to be launched in the Middle East because Western authorities just can't tolerate an essential commodity in the hands of adversaries.

Did the Fed monetize gold? In a word...nope. It's loaned and hence sold. In other words, it has taken 16,000 tonnes of market sales of central bank gold to cap its price for the last 7 years.

The bullion banks and especially their Australian hedger friends are slipping under the waves of financial history...into the abyss.

a nation of one

(01/07/2003; 08:47:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93654)

further reflections on greed and turmoil

The program of our present George to eliminate taxes on dividends might cause the DOW to go up and stay up, especially if the companies in the DOW are ones that give dividends. This would make it appear that the economy is recovering and could reduce the upward movement in gold somewhat, since many believe that gold only moves contrary to the DOW. Of course we know better, but many do not. Notice for instance, that the public announcement came at a time when these effects would be needed to keep gold from going through the roof. Consistent with this, though in a small way, yesterday on the local news there was a positive segment concerning gold's recent gains. As the bull market in gold gains strength similar news segments will cause the upward movement to increase. It seems to me that what is going on is that the public's fervor, in respect to its desire to benefit from gold's upward movement, is being managed, so as to discourage potential gold buyers now, generally, but so that more of them can be more actively encouraged later, to join en masse. This will cause a bubble, during which the POG will go very high, in a short period. It is not hard to imagine who may benefit from this. But the peak will not last long. Then it will come down again, but this time to where the real economic determinants for it at that time be, in other words, significantly higher than it is now. It looks to me like the present events indicate a slow climb for two or three years, perhaps four or five years (depending on the potential extent of the rise), with positive media stories on gold increasing in number and intensity during that time, then an increasing rush, perhaps in five or six years, toward a truly lofty figure, probably so high that nobody in his right mind today would say out loud what he thinks it will be. One way to gauge the future top dollar gold will be worth in this bubble, and the amount of time it will take to get there, in my not so humble opinion, is by observing the amount and intensity of factoids doled out to the public in the form of news and opinion, and also, who is buying and when. When milkmaids and car parkers boast loudly of having sold all their possessions and of having invested the proceeds in by-then-inflated gold stocks, that may be an early indication that the time has come to watch out.

Old Yeller

(01/07/2003; 08:58:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93655)

Canada sells "vault gold"

Of course,it retains it's vast reserves of deep storage gold.

That fact,however,does little to underpin the drooping
currency.

Only in America,all animals are equal...

The Crooked E,where did these tawdry individuals find their
inspiration and nefarious methods to deceive through opaque accounting?

"The foundation rots from the bottom up,never from the top
down,except in matters of moral character."

mannfm11

goldenboy

(01/07/2003; 09:01:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93656)

@Christian: Wealth in Trees and Land Versus Gold

I strongly believe in both land and gold as a form of wealth preservation. Income,however, is generated from land/income real estate.
Were I you, I would be worried about political/management risk with the Russian property, especially when you are paying someone to work on it. With 14" trees, is it not possible to earn an income?
At home, you have only 4" trees; so I hope you are around 30 years old. I would think it would be very difficult to make a living without outside employment.
If I could, I would subdivide the property, even if it meant only dividing it into 3. (one severance) You sell the middle third after cleaning up the area at the front and enter into a mangement/labour contract with the purchaser. Perhaps eventually, even build a home for him with your or his logs. With the money, you buy a more mature, smaller woodlot, perhaps with tappable maples, but in any event with more immediate potential to earn current revenue and maximize the value of your knowledge and skill.
This may be anaethma to you as it is difficult to sell land that you get attached to; but what if you could find a better stand and have more fun and earn more gold?

goldfool

(01/07/2003; 09:41:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93657)

Another Proven California Revenue Source?

http://www.insidevc.com/vcs/opinion/article/0,1375,VCS_125_1206787,00.htmlHAHAHAHAHAHaHaHaHaHaHahahahahaha......hah....mmmmmmm????

Belgian

(01/07/2003; 10:17:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93658)

T. Blair's speech to the UK ambassadors - London

My 2 cents interpretation from between the lines : The world is in an economic (read-monetary) mess due to oil-pressure that risks to become another oil-shock !
All should act opportunistically to avert the coming avalanche and unite for the crusade. Point !

sourdough

(01/07/2003; 10:31:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93659)

Canada sells "vault gold"

My understanding is the Bank of Canada`s job is to TARGET INFLATION WITHIN A CERTAIN RANGE. They also manage foreign currency reserves and gold reserves.
While this is there primary job description, no doubt they manage the Canadian dollar also.
Increasing or decreasing the value of the dollar is in my opinion every bit as important as interest rate. CDN dollar down= exports increase, employment increases, consumer spending increases, government revenues (GST) increases, inflation from higher cost imports increases government revenues (GST).
Government maintains budget surplus, lowers unemployment, everybodys happy, government gets re elected.
Bank of Canada may sell gold in obtaining there objective for any number of reasons.

CANADA PENSION PLAN HAS A DIFFERENT OBJECTIVE.
As I understand it, CANADIAN Dollars flow into CCP on a monthly basis.
There objective is to pay out what is required and to invest the rest with the objective of achieving the maximum return with the minimum risk.
They have done done well in the last year. Not only did they not preserve capital but actually lost on their investments.
If they had purchased gold from Bank of Canada sales they would be looking good right now.(at least on that investment)
They state there investments are based on "long term" perspective.
A percentage investment in gold, equal to Bank of Canada sales would/could achieve the objectives of both organizations.
On a long term basis can the CPP expect a return on gold bullion equal or exceeding the domestic or foreign 30 year bond? I think so.
It is inevitable that U.S. AND CANADIAN CURRENCY MUST ADJUST.
The CPP should be increasing their percentage of bullion investment.
A 5% return on investment equates to an increase in the gold price of $17.50 U.S. Based on the CPP investing U.S. dollars in gold.
I think it is rational to expect an increase of $17.50 U.S. sometime within the next 12 months. (from 350)
Investing by the CPP of Canadian dollars into gold is more difficult as we need to know the value of a Canadian dollar versus a U.S dollar in 12 months.
Will the Bank of Canada allow or be forced to let the Canadian dollar increase in value against the U.S.
In what proportion to increasing gold price?
The CPP should hold gold in their portfolio and increase gold/canadian dollar investments by selling U.S. dollar investments.
Sometimes I wonder if bumps in the dollar ratios are caused by CPP portfolio balancing.
ANYONE KNOW HOW MUCH GOLD THE CANADA PENSION PLAN HAS IN THEIR PORTFOLIO OF INVESTMENTS? PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL AND DOLLAR AMOUNT?

sourdough

(01/07/2003; 10:37:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93660)

central bank gold sales

I forgot to mention.
In my opinion all Central banks would be wise to secretly move/sell their bullion reserves into their government pension plans. If they decide to sell why not sell low to their own pension plans and let them reap the capital gains in order to fund the glut of retirees coming down the pipe.
?????????????????

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/07/2003; 11:01:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93661)

"Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

Marie Ballard Ext 106

We look forward to your inquiry.

Rock

(01/07/2003; 11:07:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93662)

Question on Unemployment Extension

Hi all, sure love reading all the knowledge this forum provides. I'm battling a cold that started on Sunday, just sipping on some green tea and trying to rest and beat this sucker. I understand that Bush is going to extend unemployment benefits. My question is this, I collected unemployment benefits last year and I received a three month extension, (total 9 months of unemployment) those benefits ran out in November of 2002. I still haven't found work yet, I guess no one needs a good personal trainer. Will I qualify for another extension with Bush's new stimulus? Tbanks for all the help, somehow I'll make it up to the castle.

Cheers,

Rock

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/07/2003; 11:09:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93663)

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Call USAGOLD - Centennial for Arrangements
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USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/07/2003; 11:11:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93664)

International clients: Please take note of our NEW toll free Int'l phone numbers

http://www.usagold.com/phone.htmlImplemented to help us serve you better.

Give them a spin and let us help you with your next gold order.

Aristotle

(01/07/2003; 11:51:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93665)

Hipplebeck's dilemma

You said, "No I would not knowingly deface my neighbors property, and I would not limit any one on what they want to do. Any kind of banking that people want to engage in is fine with me."

Sorry, buddy, but this is one case where you can't have it both ways. Do you **NOT** realize that this free banking tolerance of yours -- coupled with a desire for Gold's use as currency -- is effectively a frontal assault on this property value of EVERY other honest owner of Gold???

You'd better continue your education, young man, because your blind desires are in direct conflict with your mantra, "I believe in free choice as long as it doesn't hurt any one else." If you would set aside your preconceived ideas to make way for a fresh unbiased assessment, you'd quickly discover the way of lesser evil.

Wisdom and Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Hipplebeck

(01/07/2003; 12:04:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93666)

For those who have ears to hear

Beware of banksters in sages clothing
Yer hopeless

Aristotle

(01/07/2003; 12:14:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93667)

What can men do...

...against such reckless ignorance?

Gold. Get you some. THAT'S the answer! --- Ari

CoBra(too)

(01/07/2003; 12:14:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93668)

Bush's Plans for the Economy -

Would require the same kind of naivity from the rest of the globe as this administration seems to think the Americans will happily adopt.

What an unbelievable heap of crap, breathlessly lauded by Kudloff and Cramer.

Sorry friends, I'm kind'a nauseated as I can't come to grips with this kind of lamentable, or better laughable
policies. Please do tell me - they can't possibly believe their own script?

Breathlessly, in expectation of new histerical highs in the SM's ... and of course in valuations.

POG at least turned up in the late session - the ultimate sanity at work - cb2

Hipplebeck

(01/07/2003; 12:57:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93669)

Aristotle

Isn't it amazing that we see things so differently yet we come to the same conclusion to Own Gold? Life is wonderful!
With great respect
Your friend
Hipplebeck

(01/07/2003; 13:18:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93670)

CB2. . .

With all the talk of fiscal stimulus and The Great Bernanke Printing Press Invention and Magic Show . . . .Shades of Nixon 1971 from whence came his famous utterance:

"We are all Keynsians now."

ElGordo

(01/07/2003; 13:26:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93671)

Forget todays hoopla, this is real news

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhrwMBHgVS5TLiBO 01/07 10:20
U.S. Nov. Factory Orders Fall 0.8%; Ex-Trans. 0.7% (Update1)
By Liz Enochs

Washington, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Orders to U.S. factories fell in November for a third month in four as companies held down inventories in the face of modest consumer demand.

Factory orders decreased 0.8 percent to $319.3 billion after rising a revised 1.4 percent in October, the Commerce Department said. Bookings for commercial aircraft, machinery, electrical equipment and computers declined. Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell 0.7 percent.

``There is no pickup in investment spending, and it doesn't look like it's going to pick up any time soon,'' said Elisabeth Stoegmueller, economist and investment strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in New York.

ElGordo

(01/07/2003; 13:29:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93672)

Foreclosures up

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home loans in foreclosure edged up to a record level in the third quarter of 2002 as the weak economy forced a larger portion of mortgage holders out of their homes, a mortgage trade group said on Tuesday.

But the group, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, said a slowdown in late loan payments suggests foreclosures will decline as employment picks up in a recovering economy.

Loans in the process of foreclosure moved to 1.15 percent of mortgages, up from a revised level of 1.13 percent in the second quarter of last year, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America said. The previous high was 1.14 percent in 1999.
___________
Also-Inflation in Argentina now 41% ! WOW
I hope Argentine people had some gold/silver stashed

ElGordo

(01/07/2003; 13:38:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93673)

Tax hoopla takes coverage off earnings

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Earnings%20News&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_all&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bb2=ad_bottom2_all&bt=ad_position1_all&ss1=ad_top1_all&bt2=blk&ss2=ad_top2_all&box=ad_box_all2&tag=bbn/earnings∣dle=ad_frame2_all&s=APhsnaxUsQ2lyY3VpRichmond, Virginia, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Circuit City Stores Inc., the No. 2 U.S. electronics retailer, said December sales fell 5 percent as shoppers crimped spending on mobile telephones, computers and satellite-television systems.

Sales dropped to about $1.74 billion from $1.82 billion in the year-earlier month, Circuit City said. Sales at stores open at least a year fell 6 percent in December as the company reduced prices to attract shoppers, spokeswoman Celeste Gunter said.
____________
All these tax manipulations will just increase the deficit faster.
Its earnings that drive the market, so lets see the earnings.
Circuit City sold less this 4th qtr than last 4th qtr.
Sales were WORSE than last year.

SHOW ME THE EARNINGS WALL STREET

Gandalf the White

(01/07/2003; 14:20:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93674)

Sir Rock's QUESTION !!!

Rock (1/7/03; 11:07:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 93662)
Question on Unemployment Extension
===
Seeing how that no one can figure out what the PTB are implementing -- I suggest you ask your UNEMPLOYMENT OFFICE that same question and let them try and figure it out !
You may be lucky !
<;-(

ElGordo

(01/07/2003; 14:27:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93675)

Blame it on Rio

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhszNBNYQnJhemls 01/07 15:06
Brazil's Lula Fails to Force State to Pay Debts (Update7)
By Michael Smith

Rio de Janeiro, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed in his first attempt to force a state to honor its debts, raising investors' concerns that the federal government will be unable to meet its own obligations.

Brazil's Federal Supreme Court ordered the federal government to release 86 million reais ($25.6 million) of tax receipts it seized last week from the state of Rio de Janeiro to cover missed debt payments. The ruling, stemming from a suit filed by Rio de Janeiro Governor Rosinha Matheus, will allow the state to pay civil servants year-end bonuses required by law. The government plans to appeal as early as today, the attorney general's office said.

The decision is ``a very bad sign,'' said Sergio Lima, who helps manage about $2.5 billion in Brazilian stocks and bonds for Mellon Global Investments in Sao Paulo. ``So now, all the other governors will ask the court the same thing by saying they need money to pay their civil servants.''

The showdown is the first between Lula and Brazil's 26 states over 268 billion reais of debt owed to the federal government that the governors say they don't have enough funds to cover. Economists estimate states' debt payments account for about 4 percent of annual federal government revenue, and Lula has said he won't give states a break until next year to ensure South America's biggest economy is able to keep up payments on about $300 billion of debt.
__________
Denial is not a river in Egypt- Default is looming-$300 Billion

goldquest

(01/07/2003; 14:31:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93676)

Oh Well, By Friday, It will All Be OLD NEWS!

Gold will resume its throttle up! Looking for $360+! Rest up Spot and Spike. You're gonna be busy!

Black Blade

(01/07/2003; 15:00:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93677)

Re: Rock - Unemployment

That's a good question. I have two geologist friend who were asking the same thing. They both have exhausted their benefits and their extensions (in November no less). One has a family with five kids and wife got laid off too. Now they are living off savings and credit cards. I somehow think that there will be no extension of te extension. But then again who knows. There ar a lot of people in the same fix. There are now over 8 million "officially" unemployed and about that many more "unofficially" unemployed. I suspect that there will be a rush on the unemployment offices for the "work search grants". It looks grim for the unemployed who can't find work and that doesn't even take into account the "under employed". Good luck and lets us know what you find out.

- Black Blade

TownCrier

(01/07/2003; 15:16:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93678)

MILLION DOLLAR HEADLINE: Bush urges Congress to push economy forward with tax-slashing plan; Democrats object

http://www.newsok.com/cgi-bin/show_article?ID=970194πc=none&TP=getbusinessWith a headline that good, you almost don't need to waste time reading the article. It's the same old, same old.

(AP) CHICAGO - President Bush asked Congress on Tuesday to "push the economy forward" with a $674 billion plan to abolish federal taxes on stock dividends, speed up promised income tax cuts and send rebate checks to 34 million low- and middle-income parents.

Democrats said the lion's share of the package favors the rich, a claim the White House did not dispute.

"This growth and jobs package is essential in the short run," Bush said in an address to the Economic Club of Chicago. "It's an immediate boost to the economy. And these proposals will help stimulate investment and put more people back to work."

"He has put forward an irresponsible, ineffective, ideologically driven wish list," said Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., who is likely to seek the Democratic presidential nomination.

The president and his allies counter that the package will spur consumer and business spending, expanding the economy and helping the government's budget figures.

"The president does not believe in punishing people because they are successful," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said aboard Air Force One en route to the address. "The president does not believe in getting into class warfare."

That's just what Democrats accused him of doing.

--------(see article at url for full text)------

When you're up against populous forces bigger than you are, sometimes you just have to step a pace back and breathe the free air and try to enjoy that part of the environment over which you still may exercise a degree of control. When something has got to give in these political struggles, the national currency always comes up the loser whether your side wins completely or not. Fortunately, you have an avenue to protect your purchasing power -- with prudent diversification into gold. Call Centennial today for a breath of fresh air.

R.

misetich

(01/07/2003; 15:32:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93679)

Challenger Offers Bleak View Of Near-Term US Job Market- corporate job cutting will remain heavy well into 2003

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=1&ts=1041953100000Snip:

NEW YORK (MktNews) - Workplace authority John A. Challenger does
not see a recovery in U.S. hiring for at least six months and believes
corporate job cutting will remain heavy well into 2003.
"Planned job-cut announcements give us a fairly good idea of the
hiring landscape six months out and, right now, job cutting is still
relatively heavy. As a result, we see no evidence of a significant
increase in job creation in 2003," Challenger said in a press release
Tuesday.
Challenger cited a survey by the Business Roundtable of 150 chief
executives of the country's largest employers, in which 80 percent said
they would hold the line or reduce capital spending in 2003.
..............
The technology sector remains at the top of the list of troubled
industries which are likely to see more job cutting from consolidation
as well as business failures, Challenger said. He also sees trouble in
automotive, transportation and segments of the financial services
industry.
*************
Misetich

Greetings and Salutions To All and Best Wishes For A Golden 2003, 2004, 2005....2020...

Unemployment in the US is being underreported - as can be attested by the fall in tax revenues at both the federal and state level

and it looks to be headed higher in 2003.

Got gold?

makcumka

(01/07/2003; 15:43:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93680)

Business in "recovering" economy

What industries were historically the most stable ones during the recession / depression periods of the US history? Military-related, even if there is no war, because the government pumps money into manufacturing to kick-start the economy? Construction, because it can employ a lot of people, the technological advances are non-existant in last 100 yeras in comparison to other industries, and the government pumps money into construction to create jobs? Any thoughts would be appreciated.

misetich

(01/07/2003; 15:55:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93681)

Home Foreclosures at Record High--Bankers

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030107/economy_foreclosures_6.htmlSnip:

By Mark Felsenthal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home loans in foreclosure edged up to a record level in the third quarter of 2002 as the weak economy forced a larger portion of mortgage holders out of their homes, a mortgage trade group said on Tuesday.
**********

Misetich

Notwithdstanding the spin in the rest of the article - "We believe going forward there will be fewer households facing the harsh economic reality.."

it will get much much worse as credit has been extended to marginal credit worthy individuals thanks to the GSE's etc.

Whereto US $?

Got gold?

Rock

(01/07/2003; 16:00:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93682)

Thanks Gandalf & Blackblade

Thanks guys, I think I heard while flipping through stations the tail end of the answer to my question and I don't think I'm entitled to any more extensions of benefits. Oh well, it was a nice thought anyway. Meanwhile maybe I'll get that extra $1000 this year when they abort the marriage penalty tax. Can you imagine trying to make marriage out to be something wrong by adding a penalty tax? I'll keep you posted on my job quest results, I may have to go back to the boiler room (sales) from whence I came before becoming a personal trainer. Its nice to be diversified.

Cheers,

Rock

CoBra(too)

(01/07/2003; 16:12:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93683)

Baron K. of Tilton, a.k.a. John Maynard Keynes

@ MK, as you know started out quite soundly. He was leading the British Delegation at the Treaty of Versailles in 1918 and later found the war reparations economically crippling and unjustified and urged an "Revision to the treaty". Some historians still believe, that it would have spared us from WWII.

As counsel to the Treasurer in WWII, with "Lend-Lease and how to pay for war" his social(istic) tendencies became clear. Based on his major theories in "The general theory of employment, interest and money (1936)" only much later became the foundation and legitimacy of latter western politicians for the massive re-socialisation and re-distribution of wealth.

The Austrian economists may have built their economic models on many of K's. early assumptions and had the privilege to see and calculate, where he went off base.

... and yes we're all Keynesians now... in the sense that for the last 30 plus years his dogmas were used to the opportunistic views of the time.

In that sense I view GWB's economic stimuli today and are sadly reminded of one Austrian chancellor, Bruno Kreisky, who's "Keynesian" inheritance is still around to haunt this and the next generations.

Does history repeat? Or do we all just go in circles? Others say it's cycles ... and I tend to agree, as the cycle I forsee is a beginning cycle for real assets - versus financial assts - ... in particular Gold and Silver!
Financial assets are still way overvalued in any comparison and have a long way to find an equilibrium.
Scrapping double taxation on dividends of a meagre dividend yield of 1.5% on the S&P is at best described as ridiculous since the historical average div/yield was better than 3.5% - and the S&P co's are already scratching the bottom of the barrel to pay even these...

The real question, of course will be were to find the funds as the internal and external debt of the US has long surpassed any historical parallel.

Print it? OK, it'll really be like pushing on the proverbial string and the US Dollar will undoubtedly tank, totally and competitive devaluations may prove to be the beginning of the endgame for the IMF/SDR monetary system of semantic greenmail.

In this scenario Gold will not only be the last resort to preserve wealth, but also liberty! cb2

misetich

(01/07/2003; 16:36:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93684)

$$$ Out of Control

http://www.the-privateer.comSnip:

January 6, 2003
William (Bill) Buckler
Captain of The Privateer

Extracted from the Early January 2003 issue of Bill Buckler's "The Privateer"

$US 1 TRILLION FROM THE TREASURY
$US 1 TRILLION FROM THE FED
$US 500 BILLION FROM THE WORLD

That total is what the Bush Administration wants/requires - for the next 12 months - to have their war in the Middle East, to keep their external empire running, and to keep the US economy "growing.'

The US debt ceiling was raised by $US 450 Billion (from $US 5.5 to 5.95 TRILLION) in August 1997. That lasted until June 30, 2002, when the ceiling was raised by another $US 450 Billion to its present $US 6.4 TRILLION. The first raise lasted 61 months. The second raise, of the same amount, is now estimated (by the Treasury) to last for 8 months. Throw in a Middle East war, and the US Treasury is running on a profile which might see them add $US 1 TRILLION to their debt in ONE year.

..........
and from the same site - not same issue-

Quote

We are in the VERY early stages of a MAJOR Gold bull market - of a magnitude unseen since the 1970s. 2003 will be the first full year of this bull market. Enjoy the New Year celebrations and stay tuned for 2003. It could well be an historic year.

End of quote

Misetich

Got gold?

Christian

(01/07/2003; 16:47:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93685)

Respond to a few questions and more

Excecutive orders= E.O. 10998, 11000, 12919. Congress has 30 days to stop an excecutive order before it becomes law. The president is the KING or DICTATOR depending on your opinion of him.---- Swiss gold has been placed into the AHV., Swiss Social Security.-- Canada like the USA are using gold as a means to pay for some of the oil imports. Note: Canada is going for the Euro. Canada is doing what Switzerland is doing= dual currency. Presently in Canada you can use the U.S.$ or the Euro to buy food or gas. Many Canadian corporations have established Euro banking conections.---Cheney wants U.S.sanctions lifted against Iran and have the pipeline go through IRAN. Everything is soothed by oil. Note how oil and gold move together, be it up or down. --- Afghanistan is now an opium producer for the Bush Administration. --- Bundesbank holds 111 million troy ownces in its own account, not the EURO account.--- Oil wants Gold, we want cheap oil, to get cheap oil-oil wants cheap gold, gold investors want to profit on their investment, commodity producers want a commodity money, nobody is happy, so now what????

silvergolong

(01/07/2003; 16:51:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93686)

--> Aristotle, your debate with Hippleback...

...has got me thinking.

Lately I have been wondering how banks could be completely eliminated from the economy. Now I'm not suggesting this is practical or even desirable, but it is worth thinking about considering how banks and financial services companies have come to dominate the world economy (along with oil and oil refining). Just make a quick analysis of the Fortune 500 and Global 1000 and you'll see that the lion's share of corporate profits are earned by just these two sectors of the economy. It seems to me that the world is much better off thanks to oil, but banks? Assuming that the world has a LOT of problems (a good assumption) and that oil is a very good thing, that leaves us with an interesting conclusion: banks are awful. (Yes that's a ridiculously simplistic analysis, but bear with me anyhow).

Take that conclusion, and compound onto it the biblical sanctions against lending and interest, and you've got a good reason to at least THINK about a world without banks.

What would that do to the capital markets? Well, instead of lending you could have a system of owner financing. Essentially, this means that instead of renting money, you'd be renting-to-own a physical asset. Instead of balance sheets cluttered up with financial assets paying fixed income streams, you'd have balance sheets with real physical assets paying fixed income streams.

Let's think about an example. Let's say you were a real estate developer. You need lots of capital to develop a property. In a debt-free world, you'd have to sell shares to raise this money. Then you'd build your housing. Now how would you monetize these assets? Well you'd rent-to-own this housing. The physical assets would stay on your balance sheet. This would have one immediate benefit to the housing market: if the developer built crappy houses, the renters would move out after a few years, and the builder would be stuck with useless inventory. (Aside: it's no surprise then that in a world of debt, we have a world full of crappy condos.)

The rental payments could be structured to incent people to gradually assume ownership--just like a mortgage payment, the early payments would represent mostly rent, and the later payments would represent mostly equity. If the occupant decides to leave, they would sell their portion of the equity to a new occupant, who would then pick up the payments.

Now as the developer you might say: "wait a second: in the absence of banks, who is going to qualify the 'credit-worthiness' of the renter/owners?" Well, first, you wouldn't really have to. Since you plan to own these buildings for the long haul, you can structure the deal to kick people out if they don't pay on time. But even if you were concerned about this, you could easily imagine that a service similar to modern credit reporting agencies could quickly arise to vet the "quality" of potential customers.

Well this is just one little "thought experiment". Maybe others can shoot holes in this idea, or develop it further. But it is interesting to at least think about the consequences of eliminating banks entirely.

Paper Avalanche

(01/07/2003; 16:53:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93687)

Thoughts on the USAGOLD graphic in post #93661

I was scrolling through today's posts when I noticed the graph that USAGOLD has been recently posting showing the purchasing power of the US$. I then noticed the date of the starting point of the graph. The date is 1945. The US$ became the world's reserve currency in that year (Bretton Woods). If the US$ has lost that much purchasing power as the world's reserve currency in that time frame, how much more will it lose in relative value to today's purchasing power (and more importantly, at what rate of acceleration) when it is no longer the world's reserve currency?

For those who have walked the trail this is a rhetorical question. For newbies, food for thought.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche

silvergolong

(01/07/2003; 17:04:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93688)

---> Rock

Just because the president has proposed this crazy idea of employment incentive grants, doesn't mean they'll get passed into law. Upon reading about this nutty scheme, I was dumbfounded: we're going to create a whole new unemployment bureaucracy for THIS??? And the underlying presumption--that americans have grown "dependent" on unemployment benefits--is absurd. Yeah, like someone could actually LIVE on a few hundred dollars a week? I think americans have plenty of incentives to find work, without a stupid new set of bureaucratic rules to allocate piddly little amounts of money--to further "incent" them. Just goes to show how completely out of touch with reality our nation's leadership really is.

Anyhow the democrats have proposed extending conventional benefits for 26 weeks. I'm betting that the republicans use their cockamamie new plan as a bargaining chip, as what they really want is the dividend tax repealed. Probably sometime in March they'll compromise on a 13-week extension of normal unemployment benefits, after 2 months of grinding, unproductive political fights and a hue-and-cry from the unemployed.

TownCrier

(01/07/2003; 17:21:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93689)

The dollar and the stimulus package

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4550400∾tion=articleNEW YORK (AFX) - The dollar climbed against major currencies in late trade after President George Bush announced a fiscal stimulus package aimed at boosting the US economy...

Larry Brickman, currency strategist at Bank of America, said he was not surprised at all that the dollar moved higher on the Bush package. "There was definitely room for the dollar to strengthen. But we should not be reading anything to it. The dollar's rise should be temporary," he said.

The Bank of America analyst also said that the general optimism following the Bush package could die down especially if investors realize that with the proposed tax cuts that go with the plan, it would be more difficult to bridge the US current account deficit.

Nick Parsons, global head of currency strategy at Commerzbank, thinks that the positive impact of the stimulus plan is likely to be offset by a decline in state budget revenues which may force the US government to slash spending or raise taxes in order to balance its budget.

-------(article at url)-----

Ask yourself, what is the government's tolerance for generalized economic pain under the banner of puritanical austerity? They can't sell it to the voters.

Unfortunately, elephants just do not get along well in card houses. To a point it's like trying to lite a match "just a little bit". POOF! There she goes.

"We shall have the hyperinflation." (After, that is, only as much "deflation"/recession as we can bear. Are we there yet?)

R.

TownCrier

(01/07/2003; 17:28:49 MDT - Msg ID: 93690)

U.K. Must Adopt Euro Should Tests Be Met, Blair Says

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Economy%20UK&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=uk_economy&s=APhsg_RRjVS5LLiBN&ao=19327472London, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair sought to dispel doubts that adopting the euro has fallen down his priority list, saying Britain ``must'' join the dozen nations sharing the currency should the economics be right.

In a speech to the nation's ambassadors gathered in London, Blair said it would be ``madness'' for Britain to separate itself from the rest of the 15-nation European Union.

``That must include, provided the economic conditions are right, membership of the single currency,'' Blair said, calling for an end to ``hesitation'' over the U.K.'s relationship with Europe that ``has never profited us.''

[However...] The U.K. economy may be further out of step with euro nations in 2003 than it was last year, PriceWaterhouseCoopers said earlier today.

------(article at url)------

Further euro inroads chip away at the dollar's reserve-status hegemony -- it's last feeble pillar of support with the international trade position being what it is.

R.

(01/07/2003; 17:30:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93691)

CB2. . .

Amen, brother. . .

The whole system is based upon a promise to pay. . .buy pay what? Implosion is a likely scenario. A gigantic financial black hole that sucks everything associated with it into some kind of financial vortex. I don't see a way out, let alone an easy way out. I have said many times to many people that the best chance for any of us is to prepare ourselves (with gold ownership as a crucial part of the mix), and that doesn't mean just Americans, that means all of us -- European, Asians and Americans. Prepare individually and as families because no one will go unaffected if the post-World War II system breaks apart. . . And unfortunately I do not think we are talking about anything less. The United States will survive and even the dollar will survive, but it will not be the same United States and will not be the same dollar. And as a result everything else spinning around the U.S. financial system and currency will change as well. When will it happen and how will those two entities be defined??

Don't know, but that's why we have this forum. Stay tuned. It could be little more than a stagflationary stasis between the forces of inflation and deflation; but that could easily degenerate into hyperinflationary or deflationary chaos. Worldwide!!

Whatever happens what do you want to bet that you, me and that guy who just sat down to his computer to tune into this place will be the ones ready for it? At least as ready as one can be?

Sorry for the bummer scenario. . . . and its still early evening on this side of the globe.

As Aristotle keeps saying and as you said so well in your earlier post. . .better get it while you can.

(01/07/2003; 17:32:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93692)

Paper Avalanche. . . .

The graph. . . .

It's a paper avalanche.

Christian

(01/07/2003; 17:40:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93693)

@silverlong

I have owned a number of propertise in my lifetime and when I lease (sell) them I usually owner finance the deal with so much down. Usually I will split a property into smaller pieces in order to get enough down payment from each to cash me out on the cost of purchase. I have never had a property come back or had to forclose on one. It has never bothered me to get a payment late, and I do not add on late charges. A few have changed ownership hands and so far nobody has lost their principal payments made. Divorce situations can get messy and I have found that the best remedy is simply offer to buy the place back for payments made minus lease (interest cost) and sell it back to one of the now single people that used to be couple.

Mr. Bill

(01/07/2003; 17:50:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93694)

@Christian msg#: 93685

I am sure that the US dollar can be used in any whorehouse in Canada, but where exactly can you spend a euro? Those Afghanistan poppies belong to the Queen. The US military is only there to guard them.

erayboy

(01/07/2003; 17:55:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93695)

President's Plan = Higher Interest Rates - Article

U.S. tax cuts to deepen deficits, may push up rates
Tuesday January 7, 3:08 pm ET
By Ross Finley and Jonathan Nicholson

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Should President George W. Bush's latest hefty tax cut plan be approved by Congress, it will likely spawn the largest annual U.S. budget deficit in history and threatens to boost interest rates as government borrowing needs rise.

Many Wall Street economists already expect this fiscal year's deficit to hit $300 billion or more, eclipsing the current record of $290 billion in 1992.

If the United States goes to war with Iraq and if that conflict drags on longer than the matter of weeks many are assuming, that number could easily rocket even higher.

Bush's new 10-year $674 billion tax cut package -- unveiled on Tuesday less than two years after a $1.35 trillion tax cut -- will certainly ramp up the size and frequency of Treasury debt sales. It could also bring back old borrowing tools the government disposed of back when it was in the black and expected budget surpluses "as far as the eye can see," such as the three-year note.

Central to the market's reaction to the new tax cuts will be whether it believes the U.S. government is headed down a path of runaway borrowing similar to the 1980s.

"It could leave Bush in a little bit of a predicament," said J.P. Marra, head of government bond trading at Lehman Brothers in New York. "He's trying to fuel growth by creating deficits (but) with more (debt) supply he's going to change the rate structure, and that will have repercussions obviously on everything from lending to confidence."

"He's got to be careful," said Marra.

The impact of such a huge increase in the supply of debt securities on the market has yet to be felt as most traders are awaiting details on how the Treasury will manage its borrowing in coming months. But if Congress passes anything close to the total the President is seeking, the increases will come.

The package also would fatten the government's $6.3 trillion national debtload. Before Christmas, Treasury asked Congress to boost the government's borrowing limit, which is again looming even after a $450 billion increase last summer.

BORROWING NOT A BAD THING

The Bush team argues that the stimulation from the tax cuts will boost the revenue coming into government coffers. Indeed, greater government borrowing in tough times is accepted as sound policy by fiscal hawks and free spenders alike.

But the Bush package's size -- double its original estimate -- threw many analysts off guard.

"I don't think the economy is bad enough to need a package this large," said Lou Crandall, Treasury financing watcher at Wrightson ICAP. While he was sanguine about the plan's immediate effect on Treasury borrowing, he did acknowledge it raised the risk that the government will be soon forced into running large, chronic, late-1980s-style deficits.

Should Wall Street's estimates for this year's shortfall come to pass, the government will be borrowing roughly 3 percent of the size of the $10 trillion U.S. economy.

While that's a far cry from the 6 percent of gross domestic product the Ronald Reagan administration borrowed in fiscal 1983 -- the highest proportion ever -- the swing from budget surpluses into deficits is almost that large. The shift from 2000's $236 billion surplus to a $300 billion shortfall in 2003 would amount to more than $500 billion.

"We clearly have a very substantial deficit problem without adding another round of tax cuts," said Bob Bixby, executive director of the Concord Coalition, a budget deficit watchdog founded in the 1990s.

"It just looks like the deficit will balloon."

MORE, BIGGER SALES

Already faced with red ink, the Treasury is limited on how it can tap the bond market for new cash. Fund managers are also getting wise to the winds of change after several banner years in government bonds and are now shifting their money into other assets like stocks and corporate debt.

That means Wall Street dealers will have a harder time underwriting huge bond sales and will be forced to offer higher yields in order to entice reluctant customers.

Many of those customers are foreigners -- the Japanese are easily the single largest holders of Treasuries -- so an increase in borrowing suggests the U.S. will be sucking up yet more of the world's available capital.

It also suggests the Bush administration will not be able to soften its strong dollar stance since the threat of currency losses could scare offshore investors away from U.S. debt.

American exporters have long complained they are hampered by what they claim is an overvalued dollar.

With Treasury selling a whopping $27 billion every month in two-year notes and about $30 billion every week in Treasury bills, bond trading desks are abuzz the government may revive three-year note sales, which were discontinued back in 1998.

Meanwhile, five-year notes have borne the brunt of selling over the past few sessions as most traders and analysts expect the government to jack up sales of these maturities and perhaps move them to monthly instead of quarterly sales.

"There's clearly some jitters in the market around the stimulus and what that means for Treasury supply," said Marra.

Pizz

(01/07/2003; 18:06:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93696)

Makumba

Re: Stable Industries in recession

Food, booze, tobacco, prescription drugs, and anything else you can think of that are personal necessities or addictive.

Pizz

misetich

(01/07/2003; 18:36:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93697)

Soros - The financial status of some of the largest banks could even be brought into question.

http://www.euromoney.comSnip:

Many are also wondering if the Gramm-Leach-Bailey Act, which banks lobbied so hard to get passed to reverse Glass-Steagall, is not a curse in disguise. George Soros says he believes the Senate hearings on banks� structured finance assistance to Enron may lead to a flood of class-action suits. The financial status of some of the largest banks could even be brought into question.
He adds that if the Fed has to intervene to support these banks it will probably mean a much greater revision of the regulatory system than we have so far seen. He thinks we could see a regulatory separating of financial functions. "Perhaps we need a modern version of the Glass-Steagall Act," he says. "But things will have to get worse before that happens."
............
Regulation or bust
Much of the financial boom of the late 1990s was a result of this deregulation. Banks can thank senator Philip Gramm (and indeed have) for a great deal of deregulatory legislation that opened up their activities and allowed them to operate, on occasion, with minimal surveillance.
..........� �
Gramm is in many ways the archetypal politician of deregulation, and his faith in the market's ability to regulate itself and suspicion of clumsy New Deal-style regulation led to the freeing of energy derivatives from almost all regulation, and the abolition of Glass-Steagall.
These moves in turn helped the boom in energy and telecom derivatives, the feverish wave of financial mergers and acquisitions in the late 1990s and the creation of banking monsters such as Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase.
************

Misetich

JP Morgan - a banking monster - a derivative monster - an accident waiting to happen -

When?

Soros must be careful - JP Morgan might report him to the SEC for starting "rumors"

Got gold?

elevator guy

(01/07/2003; 18:43:30 MDT - Msg ID: 93698)

Euro gold backing?

Ok, everybody don't jump on me at once, but I have to ask, what is the difference between the so-called gold backing of the US Dollar, and that of the Euro? Percentage wise, or other subtleties.

Is there any real difference in the way they are "backed"?

I don't see a "search" feature for this forum, otherwise I wouldn't clutter the netscape with my question. Maybe if I buy some gold from Michael? :)

Thanks!!!

Arcticfox

(01/07/2003; 19:14:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93699)

No more "bone pile" data...

Bush Administration quashes Layoff Statistics
by David Lazarus - SF Chronicle � Sunday January 05, 2003 at 11:56 AM

The Bush administration, under fire for its handling of the economy, has quietly killed off a Labor Department program that tracked mass layoffs by U.S. companies.

Shooting the messenger: Report on layoffs killed

The Bush administration, under fire for its handling of the economy, has quietly killed off a Labor Department program that tracked mass layoffs by U.S. companies.

The statistic, which had been issued monthly and was closely watched by hard-hit Silicon Valley, served as a pulse reading of corporate America's financial health.

There's still plenty of economic data available charting employment trends nationwide. But the mass-layoffs stat comprised an easy-to-understand overview of which industries are in the greatest distress and which workers are bearing the brunt of the turmoil.

"It was a visible number," said Gary Schlossberg, senior economist at Wells Capital Management in San Francisco. "In times like these, it was a good window on how businesses were cutting back."

No longer. But then, businesses cutting back didn't exactly jibe with the White House's recent declarations that prosperity is right around the corner.

You had to look pretty hard just to learn that the mass-layoffs stat had been scotched. No announcement was made by the Labor Department, and no prominent mention of the change was posted at the department's Web site.

In fact, news of the program's termination came only in the form of a single paragraph buried deep within a press release issued on Christmas Eve about November's mass layoffs.

It simply said that funding for the program had dried up and that the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to find an alternative source of funding.

No doubt as intended, the announcement slipped by virtually unnoticed. Even state officials were surprised to learn of the demise of what they called an important, if downbeat, barometer of the nation's economy.

Sharon Brown oversaw compilation of the mass-layoffs number at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington. She was pleased to blow her agency's horn.

HIGH-QUALITY PROGRAM

"This was a high-quality program, producing timely information on important developments in the labor market," Brown said.

According to the bureau's final monthly report, U.S. employers initiated 2, 150 mass layoffs in November, affecting 240,028 workers. A mass layoff is defined as any firing involving at least 50 people.

California by far had the most employees given the boot -- 62,764, primarily in administrative services. Wisconsin was a distant second with 15, 544, followed by Texas with 14,624.

Between January and November, 17,799 mass layoffs were recorded and nearly 2 million workers were handed their hats by businesses.

Brown said that because of a bureaucratic quirk, the $6.6 million in annual funding for the mass-layoffs program -- money primarily doled out to state officials to gather relevant data -- was channeled through the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration.

FUNDING ELIMINATED

When that agency decided it needed more cash to handle its own affairs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was told to look elsewhere for its budget needs.

Apparently no extra money was to be found anywhere within the Labor Department, which had a total budget of $44.4 billion last year, up from $39.2 billion in 2001.

"With very finite discretionary resources, we have to make difficult decisions," said Mason Bishop, the Labor Department's deputy assistant secretary for employment training. "We didn't see how this program was helping workers re-enter the workforce."

Coincidentally, the same conclusion was reached in 1992 when the first President Bush canceled the Mass-Layoffs Statistics program amid election-year charges that he had bungled handling of the economy.

REVIVED BY CLINTON

The program was resuscitated two years later by the Clinton administration.

Now Bush the younger is following in his father's footsteps, once again deciding that the American people have no real need to know how many mass layoffs are made each month.

"It's questionable what value this program has for workers," insisted Bishop.

On the other hand, the Labor Department this week released a sweeping study of volunteer work over the past year, reporting that 59 million Americans donated their time and know-how to helping others.

President Bush has spoken repeatedly about the virtues of volunteerism since taking office in 2001.

VOLUNTEERISM MEASURED

During his own stint in the White House, the elder Bush was a proud advocate of community service. That was also the last time the Labor Department was told to devote its finite discretionary resources to a study of volunteer work by U.S. citizens.

Then, as now, it's difficult to see how feel-good surveys of volunteer activities contribute to an understanding of the economy's vitality or the re- employment of displaced workers.

There does seem to be merit, though, in easily seeing how many people have received pink slips as companies tighten their belts, and which states and industries are in facing the greatest challenges.

"The United States economy is growing again," Bush declared in a holiday radio address from his Texas ranch. "This economy is strong and it can be stronger."

And if not, best to just sweep the whole mess under the rug.

E-mail David Lazarus at dlazarus@sfchronicle.com.

add your comments

Mr
by Lee Wilburn � Tuesday January 07, 2003 at 02:28 PM
leewilburn@worker.com

The report does nothing to create jobs (actually niether report) and should have been left shut down. What Bush should be taken to task for is not shutting this down by why has he not shut down more useless crap of the same kind.

The writer seems bent on beating up Bush, and that's great. I am just offering this as a substitute stick to beat up on the GOP and actually do some good at the same time. Shutting down useless crap whether it is postive or negative in terms of the GOP has got to be a good thing.

add your comments

Mr.
by Michael � Tuesday January 07, 2003 at 03:25 PM

Yes, by all means, eliminate any information that might:

help define if we have a healthy or unhealthy economy, and
determine the scope of our current problems.
The current administration seems anxious to have "report cards" on education (standardized tests are used to assess teachers, principals, and school districts) but let's not look at information that might be used to understand how the Federal government's decisions are impacting the economy.
Yes, thankfully there are lots of other sources of information on how the economy is doing. But that does not excuse eliminating this one.

As for the cost justification, give me a break. We probably spend more on toilet seats for one navy ship than this report costs.

add your comments

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Trojan

(01/07/2003; 19:18:04 MDT - Msg ID: 93700)

Act Now Against War

In the 2000 Presidential if more Democratic voters went out to VOTE, Al Gore would be President and there would NOT be a War about to start.

Now British Citizens might have a chance to STOP the WAR.

If they don't and a War starts against Iraq the consequences might be Very Bad for the USA.

This might just be a defining moment in our lifetime.

There is a lot of anger around the world against the USA and Bush's policies and war spewings. Not against the USA itself and it's citizens.

If thousands upon thousands of Innocent Iraq citizens including women and children start showing up on the TV screens of the World being Killed, there will be Hell to pay.

If we thought Terrorism was bad before I fear for the future.

If the World starts fighting back financially against the USA by withdrawing their funds and they just MIGHT if things get bad enough, All the fighting forces of the USA won't be able to defend the US Dollar. Gold will see those funds going there and in the other currencies including the Euro.

Is this really about Saddam or about Bush and Cheney Oil ?

Here is an article that was just posted on The Guardian (Edited)

Act now against war
Editited Article: Full Link here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,869807,00.html

Act now against war

Those against an attack on Iraq must do more than shake their heads at the television

George Monbiot
Tuesday January 7, 2003
The Guardian

The rest of Europe must be wondering whether Britain has gone into hibernation. At the end of this month our prime minister is likely to announce the decision he made months ago, that Britain will follow the US into Iraq. If so, then two or three weeks later, the war will begin. Unless the UN inspectors find something before January 27, this will be a war without even the flimsiest of pretexts: an unprovoked attack whose purpose is to enhance the wealth and power of an American kleptocracy.

Far from promoting peace, it could be the first in a series of imperial wars. The gravest global crisis since the end of the cold war is three weeks away, and most of us seem to be asking why someone else doesn't do something about it.

It is not often that the people of these islands have an opportunity to change the course of world events.

Bush knows that the Americans' approval of his war depends, in part, upon its credibility overseas: opinion polls have shown that many of those who would support an international attack would withdraw that support if they perceived that the US was acting alone.

An international attack, in this case, means an attack supported by Britain. If Blair pulled out, Bush could be forced to think again. Blair will pull out only if he perceives that the political cost of sticking with Bush is greater than the cost of deserting him.

Bush's war, in other words, depends upon our indifference. As Gramsci remarked: "What comes to pass does so not so much because a few people want it to happen, as because the mass of citizens abdicate their responsibility and let things be."

On January 18, demonstrators will seek to blockade the armed forces' joint headquarters at Northwood, in north London.
Three days later, there'll be a mass lobby of parliament; at 6pm on the day the war is announced, protesters will gather in almost every town centre in Britain.

On February 15, there'll be a massive rally in London. These actions are critically important, as they'll demonstrate the level of public opposition. But they're unlikely, by themselves, to provoke one of Blair's famous sweats. We must raise the temperature.

We must oblige people to recognise that something unprecedented in recent times is taking place, that Bush, assisted by Blair's moral slipstreaming, is seeking to summon a war from a largely peaceful world.

We will fail unless we stage a political drama commensurate with the scale of the threat.

All this will, of course, be costly. But there comes a point at which political commitment is meaningless unless you are prepared to act on it. According to the latest opinion poll, some 42% of British people - as against the 38% who support it - want to stop this war. But if our action is confined to shaking our heads at the television set, Blair might as well have a universal mandate. Are you out there? Or are you waiting for someone else to act on your behalf?

Details of the actions already planned can be found at www.stopwar.org.uk

Guardian Unlimited � Guardian Newspapers Limited 2003

mikal

(01/07/2003; 19:19:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93701)

@elevator guy

I have read and heard information about this for years and still do not fully understand it. But the more people here and elsewhere discuss it, the clearer it becomes. There are some people, including a significant number posting here, who understand it very thoroughly. Also, some aspects of the current gold cover situation worldwide, lend themselves much easier to agreement, like where is gold heading and who benefits. Finally, "gold backing" is misleading. The US Treasury gold is backing it's international payments, bonds and other liabilities as collateral. As you say, it is different with the Euro. Belgium won't say "backing", but uses words like "associated", "companion", "linked", or "coupled".

mikal

(01/07/2003; 19:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93702)

@elevator guy

When I said "...as you say the euro is different.", I didn't mean to imply that the reserve gold of the ECB or seperate countries making up their zone does not support THEIR international payments, bond and other liabilities. Just that it is somehow different from the current U.S. laws. Also the euro is ITSELF supported by each mark-to-market adjustment of the total ECB reserves (and monetary aggregates?) to the market price of gold. This gives greater backing to the currency in % gold of the total reserves= greater strength and stability in world markets. Unless the currency float is expanded (such as for adding countries to the zone, and for an increase in euro payment for oil and gold vs old dollar payments).

mikal

(01/07/2003; 19:46:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93703)

@elevator guy

The current 15% gold cover being used by the Europeans is going to need a much higher POG. As I've been told, the ratio will be maintained even as countries come into the zone. Imagine how much paper will be needed combined with digits! And then add that demanded by the Arabs and Asians and many others who are coming on line by increasing reserves and planning to shift to euro's for payment of oil, gas, gold and other assets. This means that the POG will need to fluctuate, to adapt, adjust, to be "free". Certainly freer than a market peg by a government on an artificial "standard"!!!

Cytek

(01/07/2003; 19:54:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93704)

Bob Chapmans latest

On January second the US government Plunge Protection Team showed us what market manipulation is all about. First we were told by the Institution of Supply Management that their factory index rose to 54.7 in December from 49.2 in November, which is almost an impossibility considering other contributing figures. That was accompanied by a dollar that was rising versus the yen, euro and pound. Then came the JP Morgan Chase announcement that they would only have to take a $400 million loss. A deal was supposedly cut with the insurance companies for them to take a $600 million loss. The arrangement has US Government fingerprints all over it. Our guess is the insurance companies were told to take a $600 million loss in spite of having an airtight case. The government probably set up a method of covering their losses. That, of course, overshadowed Morgan's $1.3 billion pre-tax loss. Then in a still-thin market the Dow advanced 266 points, S&P 29 and NASDAQ 49 points. We called it classical manipulation. As an afterthought Morgan CEO Harrison said, JPM does not have any "real" exposure to gold. "I don't know where that rumor keeps coming from." We do, from our spies inside Morgan. Now they are having the junkyard dogs at the SEC come after us for uncovering the truth. We can promise you one thing: neither we, nor GATA will shut up. Morgan, the SEC and the whole cabal are terrified that the public will find out that the US Treasury is covering up their losses and guaranteeing their exposure. Don't forget Barrick is part of this also. If we can drag all these criminals into the legal sunlight, not only will the gold producer go under but also their management since 1987 will lose everything they have in court. The criminality is overwhelming. The professionals on Wall Street are not inept when it comes to gold. They are terrorized into silence. Remember, markets climb a wall of worry and that is exactly what is happening to gold. The cartel tried everything to knock the price down $5 to $6 but had to settle for minus $1.70 while silver rose a penny. We surely have them on the run.

makcumka

(01/07/2003; 19:58:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93705)

@ Pizz

Thank you

ElGordo

(01/07/2003; 20:06:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93706)

Hedge funds buying

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,630-536055,00.htmlFigures released yesterday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in New York showed that hedge funds last month bought contracts for 10.4 million ounces of gold, up from 6.8 million the month before. Alan Williamson, head of commodities research at HSBC, said: "That is the largest net long position since August 1993."
______________
Some good positive information on investors interest in gold-
however article ends urging not to get in -the boom is over.
Funny, I never remember them urging us to get in to gold,
now its to late to get in -lol

ElGordo

(01/07/2003; 20:11:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93707)

If this is accurate, not much extra capacity

A Reuters survey of industry officials and analysts found on
Tuesday that the world's total spare capacity was 2.77 million
barrels per day, all of it in OPEC.

Spare capacity is defined in the oil industry as wells which can
be opened up within a month, and where output can be sustained
for 3 months. In Saudi Arabia, with the world's largest oil
reserves, capacity stands at 9.5 million, some 1.45 million
above current output.

OPEC OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY

capacity output spare capacity

Saudi Arabia 9.50 8.05 1.45
UAE 2.45 2.05 0.40
Nigeria 2.50 2.10 0.40
Iran 3.77 3.60 0.17
Kuwait 2.10 1.97 0.13
Libya 1.42 1.35 0.07
Algeria 1.05 1.00 0.05
Indonesia 1.10 1.05 0.05
Qatar 0.75 0.70 0.05

TOTAL 30.39 25.32 2.77
-----------------------------------------
2.77 million barrels per day world spare capacity
Does this sound about right?

Cytek

(01/07/2003; 20:26:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93708)

"BlackBlade" Quoted by Bob Chapman in his latest report

COMMODITIES
The latest figures for US Crude Oil inventories have dropped to the lowest level since 1975. OPEC's crude oil output fell to 25 MBD from 27 million barrels per day in November. The very cold snowy winter has also helped increase heating oil consumption. Venezuelan exports are off 90% and it will take 45 days for them to be normalized after the strike is over. Last week US inventories fell 9.1 million barrels, or 3.2% to 277.5 million barrels or 10% lower than the same week a year earlier.
*****
Working gas in storage was 2,417 Bcf as of Friday, December 27, 2002, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 123 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 572 Bcf less than last year at this time and 95 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,512 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 128 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 68 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 13 Bcf below the 5-year average of 677 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 29 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 46 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 26 Bcf. At 2,417 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.
Black Blade: This is the upper end of withdrawal predicted and if predictions for an Artic blast hold true along with declining production we could see some rocketing NG and electricity rates on top of already rising costs. And the last couple of weeks were warmer than the average temperature. This is coincident with rising oil prices, record low oil inventories, threat of war in Iraq, and Venezuelan reductions in production and exports. Not a pretty picture for the US economy. "Interesting Times."

The Invisible Hand

(01/07/2003; 20:31:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93709)

Other dangers for Soros

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2594273.stm
Misetich said in msg#: 93697
JP Morgan - a banking monster - a derivative monster �
an accident waiting to happen -
When?
Soros must be careful - JP Morgan might report him
to the SEC for starting "rumors"

In the link is what happened to Soros just before Christmas.
Soros must also be careful now not to trade in banks shares,
as otherwise he may be condemned again for insider trading.
Financial legislation (including antitrust and SEC rules) makes
it almost mpossible for anybody to act on information.
That's why goldgate has not yet exploded. Too many specific
(i.e. financial) rules, no Hayekian general rules of conduct.
Note that one of the now dead co-defendants of Soros in the
Paris judgment is Edmond Safra. Monaco, remember?
Soros's courage must be applauded

Friday, 20 December, 2002, 20:01 GMT
SNIP:
Billionaire financier and philanthropist George Soros has
been fined 2.2m euros (�1.4m; $2.3m) for insider trading.
A Paris court found Mr Soros guilty of profiting from inside
knowledge of a 1988 takeover bid for Societe Generale, a
French bank.
Mr Soros, who was not in court, denied the allegations.
In a statement he said he was "astounded and dismayed" by
the ruling, and would "appeal the decision to the highest level
necessary".
"Let me repeat now what I have maintained from the start: at
no point was I in possession of inside information regarding
Societe Generale," he said.
"The charges against me are unfounded and without merit."
�
Mr Soros and three other defendants, the court found, bought
Societe Generale stock when it was cheap, and cashed in their
investment when the price rose after the bid became public.
Two other businessmen implicated in the scandal - Edmond
Safra and Robert Maxwell - have since died.

Cometose

(01/07/2003; 20:36:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93710)

TENDING our own backyard

www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/analysis.htmMore intersting information to file away in your "geopolitical tensions" file.....regarding the "AXIS OF GOOD" .
Seem to me more fires springing up everyday.....
the battle lines are being drawn......
We're going to have to have minor in selfdefense ( martial arts)
to protect ourselves ......thanks to BIG BROTHER BIG MOUTH....... they can't get at him , we of his clan will be close enough .....GUILT by ASSOCIATION..

Isn't this how WARS GET STARTED....Everyone seems to be playing with their cards close to their chests and the ramifications of what's going on out there isn't being covered in the (FREE) press.

Have to learn a new language and act like a native in a foreign country so the "PERSECUTORS" won't know who I am.
Become invisible , I can live with that....go practice my French . wear a Beret , and sing........ what a plan...
Maybe I should start with a closer destination ,,,perhaps a place that my sons and I can live and learn SPANISH and avoid the draft... that will surely come with WWIII....

THIS IS WHAT I CALL BEGINNING THE 21ST CENTURY WITH A BANG...... or are we .....GOING OUT WITH A BANG.....

Plan and be flexible ....get another passport....(Canada)..
GO to EUROPE ....they have the EURO...they are going to get preferential treatment...

Cometose

(01/07/2003; 20:56:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93711)

TENDING our own backyard

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/analysis.htmtest

ElGordo

(01/07/2003; 21:07:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93712)

Falling margins

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B756AC942%2D682C%2D4BFE%2DB5B0%2DFF224AECBA90%7D&siteid=mktwPOWAY, Calif. (CBS.MW) -- Gateway shares fell in after-hours trading Tuesday after the personal computer maker lowered its fourth-quarter revenue forecast and increased its loss estimate to between 18 cents and 19 cents a share.

Gateway (GTW: news, chart, profile) officials said they expect revenue to come in at $1.06 billion, down from earlier forecasts of $1.2 billion. The company previously estimated it would lose 13 cents a share for the period ended Dec. 31.

Reaction was swift, and in after-hours trading Gateway shares fell 22 cents to $2.95 after giving up 13 cents in the regular session.

More bad news for Gateway could be on the way. Gateway also said it is evaluating a dispute with a major partner that might result in an additional net loss of up to 3 cents a share.

Chief executive Ted Waitt said that even though Gateway sold about 720,000 PCs during the quarter, the company experienced pressures on its margins following a series of promotions meant to spur PC demand.

Black Blade

(01/07/2003; 21:20:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93713)

Re: Rock - Unemployment and The Prez's Proposal

You may find this interesting - On my way to the gym and the post office this afternoon I stopped by the local unemployment office as it is on the way. I went in to look over the job postings. It was quite pathetic to watch all the people looking at the few listings (mostly service industry jobs like fast food and dish washers, a few laborers and a few medical personnel as a VA hospital is located here). I talked to one of the reps as I reregistered as unemployed in case there a worthwhile earth science position became available. He said that he believes that there will be an extension to the extension. So there's hope for the desperate masses still searching for employment and who have exhausted their benefits (including extensions). I can't verify that this will actually happen of course but that was his impression. At least there is probably a $3,000 work search grant in the Prez's proposal that can be applied toward search expenses. I can almost see the private employment agencies drooling over that.

As far as the "marriage penalty" is concerned, I think a case can be made that married couples (especially those with children) actually should pay more in taxes as they use more public services than singles. However, singles don't tend to vote or be vocal which is their downfall. I can see where the Dems will use the "class warfare" issue for political ammo. However, there are a lot of elderly who use dividends to supplement their meager retirement benefits, especially from the higher yielding "widows and orphan" stocks. So this could backfire. I think that the Republicrats will likely screw this all up no matter how it goes. Actually it will help me slightly as I have a lot of dividend bearing shares that I use to get by on for now, but I don't think this new proposal will help with my energy trusts and REITs as these are non-taxed pass through payments. I am sure there are a lot of CPA's and Tax Preparers out there scratching their heads right about now.

- Black Blade

ElGordo

(01/07/2003; 21:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93714)

More job cuts

Philadelphia, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Cigna Corp. will eliminate 3,900 jobs, or 9.2 percent of its workforce, after the third-largest U.S. health insurer wasn't able to charge customers enough to make up for higher expenses.

Costs related to the reductions pared fourth-quarter earnings by $98 million, Cigna said in a statement. Cigna, which already cut 700 jobs in November, expects to eliminate another 2,150 in the first quarter and the rest by the end of the year.

Black Blade

(01/07/2003; 21:36:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93715)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm
Snippit:

Will The Rally Hold?

Finally, looking at the news in the markets mid-month on corporate earnings, the economy and geopolitical tensions that seem to mount each day, I would be surprised if the New Year rally lasts beyond the end of next week. Corporate earnings confessions should begin by the end of next month. Investors may not know what the real picture is since most of the reporting will emphasize whether companies beat, met or missed lower revolving estimates. I expect that earnings estimates will start to come down even more so that they can beat estimates as we get closer to the actual reporting period.

Despite the growing mountains of debt in this country at all levels of society, analysts and money managers remain decidedly upbeat, even more so than they were at the peak of the bubble. The chief argument for buying and investing in stocks is that they have fallen for three straight years and will unlikely fall for the fourth straight year. That only happened once during the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression that followed. However, monetary and fiscal policy is following the same path. Today's situation is very much reminiscent of the 1920's and the early 1930's. The only difference between today and then is things are much worse today than they were during the start of the Great Depression. Debt is higher at all levels�consumer, corporate, and government. We are now a debtor nation instead of a creditor nation. Stock valuations are higher today than they were before the 1929 crash, and corporate balance sheets are in terrible shape. As I see it, the dollar is much more vulnerable, and so are consumers and the financial industry due to the explosion in credit. The fact that nobody seems to talk about this is very disturbing. In the US, Washington and Wall Street believe all problems can be solved by borrowing and printing more money. The fall in the value of the dollar and the rise in the value of gold and other commodities are telling us the financial markets see this as problematic. The fate of this nation rests on the dollar and the bond market.

Black Blade: Puplava really does give a good rundown on the deteriorating state of affairs in the country. It is a bit too comprehensive to outline here. But it is an interesting read. He discusses the "Proposal" and the crumbling budgets on the nation's cities and states. Much the same as I have discussed here before but he puts it in good perspective.

Black Blade

(01/07/2003; 21:44:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93716)

Congress tackles unemployment

http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDCD94AA6%2D82E8%2D4C1C%2DB01F%2D262CBC3FCFB5%7D&siteid=mktw Senate clears bill extending benefits; House next

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- In its first piece of legislative business, the new Senate on Tuesday passed a $7.2 billion measure to extend federal unemployment benefits for 13 weeks. The House is set to take up the measure on Wednesday. The extension would apply to workers who have used up all 26 weeks of state aid but had not exhausted their 13 weeks of emergency federal aid when the program expired Dec. 28. It also covers workers expected to exhaust their state benefits between now and June 1.

Black Blade: This suggests that perhaps there won't be an extension to the extension. That could affect about 2 million of the unemployed who exhausted their extension benefits (if I recall that number being correct). Perhaps they will qualify for the work search grant though. If anything this proposal is a blatant admission that the economy is in dire straights even as the primates on Wall Street chatter on about "economic recovery". Looks grim!

Black Blade

(01/07/2003; 21:57:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93717)

Strangest state tax laws

http://money.cnn.com/2003/01/06/pf/taxes/q_oddtaxes/index.htm
You'll pay taxes on illegal drugs in 'Bama and on Pepsi in Chicago. But wait, there's more.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) � Like it or not, taxes are a fact of life. From paycheck deductions to the added cost of eating out, it's the price we pay for social programs, highway maintenance and public schools. Not all taxes, however, are rooted in common sense. Some, in fact, are downright bizarre. In certain parts of the country, you'll pay the government special taxes for takeout food, for buying a deck of cards, or even for possessing illegal drugs. And with state budgets becoming increasingly pinched, experts say miscellaneous taxes are on the rise -- from a new "jock tax" in Cincinnati to a 200 percent increase in sales tax on liquor in Alaska. "Many of these taxes are desperate measures states [undertook] to raise funds," said John Barry, chief economist at the Tax Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit.

Black Blade: There are some "interesting" taxes listed. I still remember California's loony "snack tax" for example. The "Jock Tax" is quite funny. The moral of that story is: "shame on you for beating our Lakers". I guess this is just a sign of the moral decay of the US. Primate politicians rob at the point of a pen. If they didn't take up politics as a career I would wager that they would be street criminals or in prison. Oops! Did I say wager? Yep, There's a "wagering tax" too. Hmmm�

Black Blade

(01/07/2003; 22:24:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93718)

Gold Companies See Opportunities

http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/newsArticles.asp?guid=%7B17B20B21%2D97B4%2D47AE%2D97B7%2DDC5208A48A64%7D&doctype=2005&siteid=mktw&selCount=50&value=gold∝erty=word&
Snippit:

Companies like Goldcorp Inc (CA:G) , a mid-tier Canadian producer which has accumulated over 180,000 ounces in gold bars, said the price was not high enough to warrant selling its bullion stocks. "We don't think it's high enough to consider selling the gold because we think we're still a long way from the top," said Chris Bradbrook, Goldcorp's vice president for corporate development.

Bruce Hansen, senior vice-president and chief financial officer for Newmont Mining Corp (NEM) , the world's biggest gold producer, said a higher gold price meant bigger profits and a chance to pay down debt and reduce hedgebooks further. "We're not going to turn on the spigots in terms of production increases here, but there are incremental components of various of our mines that we will re-evaluate...that were marginal at lower prices," Hansen told Reuters. "We will still as an industry see less production in 2003 than we saw in 2002 and it'll be a slow turn assuming that these prices hold," he said. "I don't think production will regenerate at a rapid rate here so we think there's more upside than downside."

Jay Taylor, chief executive of Placer Dome Inc (CA:PDG) , North America's third-largest gold producer, said the company could relook at projects that were shelved because of low prices, but were now sustainable at the current price. Taylor said acquisitions were more challenging in a higher gold price environment. Taylor said the industry had shifted its stance on gold forward sales because investors were looking for more exposure to the rising gold price.

Black Blade: The industry appears to believe that there is yet a lot more upside to the Gold price. Companies continue to aggressively reduce hedge books as investors demand it. New exploration and production at current prices is unlikely and production continues to decline. Much the same as I have outlined as part of the fundamental case for Gold (and Silver as well) in the Daily Market Reports. The temporary slump in the Gold price is just a reaction to the "Proposal" and reports of OPEC increasing oil supply (which is really a crock). Once the euphoria dissipates and an objective look at the numbers as well as the flood of earnings warnings from Wall Street investors will turn their heads toward Gold again. As I mentioned last night, I would hold off on any new positions in Gold shares for now and be more inclined to accumulate the "real deal" physical on these temporary pullbacks. The Chinese and Japanese will continue to lead the way as purchases are reported to be very strong once again.

Trojan

(01/07/2003; 23:19:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93719)

Why Do Americans Allow This To Go On ?

I had posted something on the Gold Eagle "Gold Forum" earlier tonight about a rumor I had read about recently, about JFK being killed because of his wish to abolish the Federal Reserve.

Since I had stated it there I wanted to back it up so I did some research Via Google and found the following article that I thought merited wider disclosure and discussion.

So in the interest of Open Discussion on a VERY IMPORTANT Subject here is the Message that I posted on Gold Forum earlier tonight.

Here is the Exerpt from this article Re:
Kennedy:

On June 4, 1963 John F. Kennedy issued Executive Order 11110. This order called for the issuance of a new currency, the "United States Note". $4,292,893 of this new currency was actually placed into circulation.

The new currency was to be distributed through the U.S. Treasury and not the Federal Reserve.

President Kennedy dismissed the Federal Reserve System and ordered the U.S. government to restore its Constitutional mandate of controlling the money.

Three weeks later, President Kennedy was assassinated. Lyndon Johnson's first act upon taking over the office of President was to rescind executive order 11110, and all the new currency was taken out of circulation.�

End Of Exerpt

Whole Article to Follow:

From the Federal Reserve Banking System to President Bush's secret police, the United States is quickly changing from the "land of the free" to one more military state, little different from those the world has seen throughout history, most recently in Nazi Germany and the USSR.

The Federal Reserve Banking System
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes her laws."
Meyer Rothschild

For the last 98 years a private corporation has run the United States of America. Article I, Section 8, Clause 5, of the United States Constitution provides that Congress shall have the power to coin money and regulate the value thereof and of any foreign coins.

But that is not the case. For nearly a century the United States government has had no power to issue money, control the flow of money, or to even distribute it.
That belongs to a private corporation registered in the State of Delaware, the Federal Reserve Bank.�

In 1836 President Andrew Jackson abolished the "Bank of the United States", America's central bank and then eliminated the national debt without having to impose an income tax.

In 1913 under pressure of blackmail, President Woodrow Wilson established the Federal Reserve System under the premise of "supplanting the dictatorship of the private banking institutions and to stabilize the inflexibility of national banknote supplies".

Representative Charles A. Lindberg, Sr., the father of the famous aviator, was a member of the Banking and Currency Committee. He opposed the Federal Reserve Act and gave a speech on January 20, 1915.

"The system is private, conducted for the sole purpose of obtaining the greatest possible profits from the use of other people's money, and in the interest of the stockholders and those allied with them." Unfortunately he was not listened to.

With the creation of the Federal Reserve a new currency was issued, the Federal Reserve Note. Take out a one-dollar bill and read what is printed across the top.� The Federal Reserve was to unite and supervise the entire banking system, control the expansion or contraction of currency, and regulate the flow of money to the commercial banks through the establishment of 12 Federal Reserve Banks.

The Federal Reserve is controlled by private banking interest and by Presidential appointment - but it is still a private organization and not a government entity.

In 1913, President Wilson's creation of the Federal Reserve System established a three-tier monetary system in the United States - the holders of money (public, government, business and institutions; the commercial banks that borrow from the public and issue loans; and the central bank or Federal Reserve that has a monopoly on the issuing of money. The

Federal Reserve and not the government now controlled the monetary policy of the United States. This is in direct violation of the United States Constitution.

On April 27, 1936 the United States Congress tried vainly to rest control of the monetary system back with bill HR92163. The preamble of this bill stated "The committee had under consideration the bill (HR 92163 to restore to Congress its constitutional power to issue money and regulate the value thereof; to provide monetary income to the people of the United States at a fixed and equitable purchasing power of the dollar, ample at all times to enable the people to buy wanted goods and services at full capacity of the industries and commercial facilities of the United States; to abolish the practice of creating bank deposits by private groups upon fractional reserves, and for other purposes.". Under pressure from the banking industry, the bill never became law.

On June 4, 1963 John F. Kennedy issued Executive Order 11110. This order called for the issuance of a new currency, the "United States Note". $4,292,893 of this new currency was actually placed into circulation. The new currency was to be distributed through the U.S. Treasury and not the Federal Reserve. President Kennedy dismissed the Federal Reserve System and ordered the U.S. government to restore its Constitutional mandate of controlling the money.

Three weeks later, President Kennedy was assassinated. Lyndon Johnson's first act upon taking over the office of President was to rescind executive order 11110, and all the new currency was taken out of circulation.�

In 1957 Senator George Malone of Nevada, while speaking of the Federal Reserve, said, "I believe that if the people of this nation fully understood what Congress has done to them of the past 49 years, they would move on Washington (revolt), they would not wait for an election� It adds up to a preconceived plan to destroy the economic and social independence of the United States." That was 45 years ago.�

With the creation of the Federal Reserve Corporation, came income taxes. With income taxes came the Internal Revenue Service, which is also a private organization and has no organizational or legal ties to the U.S. Treasury or any other government organization. It is a private industry built for the collection of taxes to be paid to the Federal Reserve Corporation, NOT the federal government. This is to pay interest on money loaned to the government by the Federal Reserve.�

More that half the shareholdings in the Federal Reserve Bank are controlled by large New York City banks, including National City Bank, National Bank of Commerce, First National Bank, Chase National Bank, and Marine National Bank. When Rockefeller's National City Bank merged with J.P. Morgan's First National Bank in 1955, the Rockefeller group owned 22 percent of the shares of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which in turn holds the majority of shares in the Federal Reserve System - 53 percent.
But who really owns what? Here arc the top controllers of the Federal Reserve Bank�

1. Rothchild banks of London and Berlin.
2. Lazard Brothers Banks of Paris.
3. Israel Moses Seif Banks of Italy.
4. Warburg Bank of Hamburg and Amsterdam.
5. Lehman Brothers Bank of New York.
6. Kuhn, Loeb bank of New York.
7. Chase Manhattan Bank of New York, which controls all of the other 11 Federal Reserve Banks.
8. Goldman, Sachs Bank of New York.�

The Federal Reserve Bank has challenged this ownership combination, but a study of Standards and Poor will verify the ownerships. This means that the controlling interest of our national monetary system is foreign.

In 1797, John Adams wrote to Thomas Jefferson, "All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise, not from defects of the Constitution or Confederation; not from any want of honor or virtue, as much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation."

In simple terms, the United States Government borrows money from the Federal Reserve Bank with interest.

Let's say that the Government wants $1 billion. The Federal Reserve prints $1 billion - based upon no hard asset and lends it to the Government at a high interest rate. The bank did not have the original money; it created it and made a bookkeeping entry. Like you writing yourself a check without funds and cashing it.

The Federal Reserve controls the flow of money, making it tight and creating unemployment or printing more than actually exists and creates inflation.

It is, in essence, a paper corporation, which controls the entire economic well being of the nation. The National Debt is based upon this money, borrowed from the Federal Reserve, which controlling interests are foreign investors.

If the Federal Reserve disappeared today and the Federal Government issued it own money, these loans would go away along with their interest payments. When this happens the National Debt ceases to exist along with the need for income taxes.�

In 1929 the dollar was based on gold, meaning for every dollar in circulation there was an equal amount in gold. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York exported over $111 million in gold to France and England. The other banks of the Federal Reserve followed suit. Once nearly all the gold was removed from US banks, it was decided to remove the US dollar from the gold standard and prohibit the ownership of gold in this country.

As of 1993, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had $128 billion of gold in its vaults, based on a price of $35 per ounce that the Federal Reserve has basically sold to itself through foreign interests under its control.�

As long as the American public continues to use the Federal Reserve Note for buying and selling, instead of gold or silver coin, or currency backed by gold or silver; they are under the control of the Federal Reserve Corporation and it's shareholders.

No Congress or President has been strong enough to stand up to the foreign-controlled Federal Reserve Bank.
Yet there is a catch, one that President Kennedy recognized before he was slain.

The original deal in 1913 creating the Federal Reserve Bank had a simple back out clause. The investors loaned the United States Government $1 billion. And the back out clause allows the United States to buy out the system for that $1 billion. If the Federal Reserve Bank were bought out and dismantled; and the Congress of the United States took control of the currency, as required in the Constitution, the National Debt would virtually end overnight, and the need for more taxes and even the income tax, itself.

Thomas Jefferson was concise in his early warning to the American nation,

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

Rep Jack Metcalf's speech to Congress - Sep 1999

End Of Article

I have to say in the interests of full disclosure that I am a Canadian citizen.

I Love America and it's people. They are good and kind and decent and hard working.

When I was 20 years old I was working as a junior in an accounting firm and about 1:00 PM on the 22ND of November while adding up some numbers I heard on the radio where I was working the News of the JFK shooting.

I went home immediately. I could NOT work anymore that day. I watched my TV for 3 days including seeing Oswald get shot.

Why am I NOT Surprised that Kennedy was your ONE modern day President who wanted to abolish the Federal Reserve.

A Great Man and a True American Hero and President.

God Bless America.

Maybe when the whole system falls apart and Gold is at $3000 and the US $ at .01 then The Federal Reserve will be abolished like Kennedy wanted for All FREE Americans.

Christian

(01/07/2003; 23:23:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93720)

The difference between credit creation gold and commodity gold.

Recerve Requirements is a tool for monitory policy, computed as % of deposits that banks must hold in cash form. Presently on big banks they are 10% on transaction accounts (checkbook money) and 3% on small banks. There is NO (no) recerve requirements on time deposits and therefore can expand without limit. There is no regulation or law to stop a bank from using an off balance sheet gold loan and deposit it on its own account as a time deposit. I have yet to see a bank that does not use it. There is no need anymore for savings deposit. Matter of fact many banks are giving the depositers the middle finger. Why pay a savings depositor more on interest than the gold lease rate. Why indeed? Banks can and do protect the risk of gold price going up with options or futures contract. So in other words an off balance sheet debt becomes a time deposit that has reserve requirements and therefore can expand without regard to reserve levels. With this process a $1000 off balance sheet gold loan can be turned into credit creation loan of unlimited supply. A 20% reserve requirements a $1,000 can be turned into $5,000, a 10% a $1,000 can be turned into $10,000 at 5%=$20,000, at 2.5%=$40,000, at 1.25%=$80,000 and on and on it expands. 0% requirement it can expand without regard to reserve levels. Commodity gold is for commodity use and priced for commodity use. Credit creation gold is only traded between central banksters and the price is determined by credit creation opportunity use of that gold. Presently that is in the area of $10,500 a troy oz. According to the FED gold will be allowed to move to $467 which will bring credit creation (monitery gold) to be priced at $14,000 and that will be sufficient to give the $ a 15% gold backing like the Euro has.---- I would like to see people with brains far better then this uneducated farm boy to improve the accuracy of this post. I do not need to be ripped apart. I and the rest of the people in this world need to understand what credit is, and what it can do or not do for you. But most important we need to find a better way, and a way out of credit slavery. We need to understand how credit can be forced on you, be it on the federal or state or even local level. The Constitution gives us our freedom, but this credit creation is enslaving us and future children into slavery. There was nodebt on this country of ours before the white man came. Now everything is indepted and belongs to a trust (DTC) owned by the FED.

Trojan

(01/07/2003; 23:47:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93721)

Christian READ THIS

Abolish the Federal Reserve
� 1996 by David W. Neuendorf
�
I am often impressed to see the power that some Americans have to influence the lives of the rest of us. Look at the recent strike at the GM plant in Dayton.

Here was a single facility making only one of hundreds of different parts for GM cars. The union workers at that facility went on strike, and the whole nation's industry began to slow down for lack of those parts. Now that's leverage.

There is one little understood institution in America whose power over our economy dwarfs that of the autoworkers in Dayton:

The Federal Reserve System.

Whenever the czars at the Fed have a meeting, Presidents, industrial giants, investors, home buyers, everyone with an interest in our economy awaits their verdict with bated breath.

If they decide to raise interest rates, politicians and industries could fall, homes will not be purchased, jobs will be lost. If they decide to lower the rates, officeholders, industries and consumers may prosper, but the inflation rate may increase.

That's a lot of power and responsibility for a handful of people whose names would not be recognized by one in 10,000 Americans.

Too much by far.

The Federal Reserve System was conceived in 1910 by a group of notorious robber barons at a then-secret meeting at J. P. Morgan's estate on Jekyl Island, Georgia. After three years of political machinations, Congress passed the Federal Reserve Act in 1913. The bill was promoted publicly as a plan to reform the nation's monetary system and stabilize the currency by taking control of it out of the hands of big bankers.

In reality, of course, the Act was written by the bankers for the purpose of solidifying their control over our currency.

The people of the United States granted to Congress the power "to coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures" in Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution.

Wisely, we never gave them the constitutional power to delegate this money-creating and regulating responsibility to any private group.

Yet this is exactly what the Federal Reserve Act did.
It created a cartel of private banks, managed by a Board appointed for long terms of office by the president. This group of banks became the sole issuer of U.S. money, with full control over its quantity and thus its value.

How has the Federal Reserve performed in its stated purpose of stabilizing our currency? Soon after its formation, the management of the Fed created the conditions that led to the depression of the 1930s.
It has presided over the loss of the gold backing of our money, and the consequent loss of about 90% of the value of the dollar.

Booms and busts have been worse after the advent of the Fed than before.

If the system hasn't accomplished its stated goals, what then has it been able to do?

It has been the tool used by the major bankers to gain control over the smaller banks. It has been able to bail out many international banks when their reckless overseas lending policies brought them to the brink of bankruptcy.

It has been the financing agency for Congress' unprecedented deficit spending on the welfare state and war. Many people believe that it has intentionally manipulated the economy in order to influence the results of our presidential elections.

Our government doesn't need the help of any private banking cartel to manage money. We need to repeal the Federal Reserve Act and return control of our currency to Congress. Then we need a serious national discussion about how real currency reform can be achieved, giving consideration to restoring the gold backing to our money.

As long as the Federal Reserve has control over our nation's money, Congress' control of the purse-strings will not have the benefits the Founders intended.

Return to Dave Neuendorf's Home Page

Please feel free to respond to my columns via email to me or letters to the editor of the Aurora Journal-Press at Register Publications, 126 W. High St., Lawrenceburg, IN 47025.

ski

(01/08/2003; 00:33:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93722)

Jobs during the Great Depression??

MAKCUMKA 15:43 #93680 .... "What industries were historically the most stable ones during the recession/depression periods in US history?"

Anticipating that we were headed for trouble, I did a study of the Great Depression about 10 years ago. I read from several sources and found some interesting surprises surrounding the depression. The following is what happened during the depression of the 30's.

First of all, almost every single sector of business declined by huge percentages. A few sectors generally maintained the same amount of business and only a few sectors benefited from the depression. If I don't address it below, it most likely declined.

BENEFITED:

1. Anything having to do with BANKRUPTCY.

2. PAWN SHOPS, SECOND HAND SHOPS and the like. (People could not afford "new".)

3. Most FIX & REPAIR ANYTHING SHOPS. (You could not buy "new.")

4. USED PARTS STORES & SOURCES like junk yards and the like.

5. CHEAP SPICY FOOD (You always have to eat and people evidently associated SPICY with expensive and thought they were getting a deal.)

6. LAW ENFORCEMENT due to an increase in crime.

7. CHEAP ENTERTAINMENT because everything was so depressing you wanted to relieve the pain with fantasy or comedy. Enter THE THREE STOOGES. (I don't expect this to be as big this time due to the TV set.)

8. CHEAP TRANSPORTATION because people will still want to go from point A to point B.

9. In certain parts of the country with placer gold and a favorable climate, many went to GOLD PANNING in an attempt to generate some income from the land.

STAYED ABOUT THE SAME:

1. All manner of HEALTH CARE. Why? People get sick at about the same rate.

2. All manner of EDUCATION. Why? The popular thinking of the day was, "If your out of work at least you can do something productive for yourself by increasing your level of education."

End of list .......... !!!!

From time to time, I have talked to various individuals that are getting ready to enter the work force. Some tips:

a. The era of finding a job in an occupation that you LOVE may be a thing of the past. Think in terms of settling for any job in an sector and learning how to be happy with any job.
b. Consider any of the above listed occupations except for cheap entertainment.
c. Consider joining the military but make sure you take up a trade that is transferable to civilian life.
d. No matter how confident you are about your present job, start looking now for one or two back up jobs.
e. Start saving money and pay down your bills now before trouble sets in.
f. Work at becoming one of the most valuable employees at your present place of employment. When layoffs come, employers will attempt to keep the best. Learn how to do the jobs of other employees.
g. Think in terms of BARRIERS TO ENTRY so that someone else will have a difficult time taking your job from you. Examples include: Required college or trade school degrees, union membership, special certification, proficiency on a specialized piece of equipment, seniority.
h. Think in terms of an occupation that cannot be done by someone else in another country. Instead of making lawnmowers you want to mow lawns.
i. The necessities of life: food, clothing, shelter and transportation. (The cheapest answer to the above.)
j. Ask yourself what do the very poorest people in your area spend their hard earned money on? Many of us may find ourselves in their shoes and will have to act the same under those circumstances.

Perhaps this will help someone .....

GoldnSilver2002

(01/08/2003; 00:42:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93723)

The last war america can afford?

After todays address by President Bush to america,i felt truly sorry for the world and for americans.Much like Rome,for better or for worse,The u.s is slowly opening up fronts all over the world.At a time,it seems,it can afford it the least.The u.s has taken on the role of the world's policeman,but how much longer in a war covered globe can america afford to police it?From south america,to the middle east to asia,violence and war are upsurging.America must be careful now,that its enemies dont push all at once.

Yesterdays pre speech push by the p.p.t combined with a smack down on gold,did nothing to change the picture here.The markets are sick,one more unexpected announcement away from collapse.America,uk etc prepare for war and that historically only means one thing for gold!I dont care for charts predicting world events and human behaviour,as if anyone can.All we have is history and human's nature.We are weeks or perhaps months away from seeing what humans do when they panic,they run to the gold.As soon as the bombs drop,the cabal will feel something hit its hull.The captain will awake,"to the golden lifeboats!!"This is a major gold bull and no one can talk away reality forever.Gold will crack 370 as america goes into iraq!

ElGordo

(01/08/2003; 01:14:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93724)

More wars to fight? This could get expensive-

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/030108/1/36ba7.htmlWednesday January 8, 3:25 PM

Libya, Syria, possibly Sudan also seek WMD, CIA warns

As the United States is consumed with proliferation crises in Iraq and North Korea, other counties such as Libya, Syria and possibly Sudan are quietly trying to acquire or expand secret arsenals of weapons of mass destruction, the CIA has warned.

The US Central Intelligence Agency has also concluded that suspected terror mastermind Osama bin Laden, blamed for the September 11 attacks on the United States, "has a more sophisticated biological weapons research program than previously discovered."

"Nuclear, chemical, biological, and ballistic missile-applicable technology and expertise continues to gradually disperse worldwide," the agency said in a report submitted to Congress last month and made public Tuesday.

The document, which contains a broad overview of the most pressing proliferation concerns in the second half of 2001, also points out that nuclear technologies have spread so much "that from a technical standpoint, additional proliferators may be able to produce sufficient fissile material for a weapon and to develop the capability to weaponize it."

The assessment comes as the administration of President George W. Bush is threatening war on Iraq if it refuses to give up its suspected chemical and biological weapons, as well as its alleged clandestine nuclear arms program.

Washington is also demanding that North Korea, already suspected of having one or two nuclear warheads, abandon its drive to expand its arsenal.

But while detailing these dangerous pursuits by the "axis of evil," the CIA indicated that other nations from the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism were also involved in similar activities.

One of them is Libya, which, according the report, continues to develop its nuclear infrastructure.

"In 2001, Libya and other countries reportedly used their secret services to try to obtain technical information on the development of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons," the CIA said.

According to the report, Tripoli tried to negotiate with Russia a deal to purchase a nuclear reactor and secure Moscow's assistance in developing the Tajura Nuclear Research Center.

"Such civil-sector work could present Libya with opportunities to pursue technologies that also would be suitable for military purposes," the spy agency concluded.

Following the suspension of UN sanctions against it, Libya quickly moved to establish contacts with chemical companies and research institutions, primarily in Western Europe, in order to secure technologies and raw materials for its suspected chemical weapons (CW) program.

"Tripoli still appears to be working toward an offensive CW capability and eventually indigenous production," the report stated. "Evidence suggests that Libya also is seeking to acquire the capability to develop and produce BW (biological weapons) agents."

Syria is suspected of trying to acquire precursor materials and know-how for a chemical weapons program.

"Damascus already holds a stockpile of the nerve agent sarin but apparently is trying to develop more toxic and persistent nerve agents," the CIA said.

The agency believes it is "highly probable" that Syria is also developing biological weapons.

As for Sudan, the CIA said the East African nation "has been developing the capability to produce chemical weapons for many years," and "may be interested in a BW program as well."

The report also warned that anti-American terrorist groups like bin Laden's al-Qaeda have "ready access" to information about weapons of mass destruction.

A trial in New York of men linked to the 1998 US Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania has revealed that in the early 1990s, al-Qaeda tried to arrange from Sudan a purchase of enriched uranium, possibly to be used for building a so-called "dirty bomb."

"We asses terrorist use of radiological dispersal devices to be a highly credible threat," the CIA said.
______________
Hey, Libya has oil !

Caradoc

(01/08/2003; 01:18:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93725)

Hello to Christain!

You may call yourself a "farmboy," but your post below shows you didn't just fall off the back of a turnip truck.

Trees: Since you have access to cheap labor for your Russian endeavor, you might consider planting three hardwood seedlings (maybe black walnut or maple) in each hole and spending 10 or 15 minutes per year on each triple tree keeping side branches pruned off for the first 20 feet and braiding the three trunks (one braid every year or so) so that they grow into one tree. Because of internal pressures as the tree grows, the resulting logs (20 feet of solid burl woodgrain!!) would bring premium price from plywood producers in Finland, Estonia, or Norway. Could be you'd do better to contract for producing plywood with your pretty veneer on top and sell directly to the German furniture manufacturers.

Gold: In addition to distinguishing between "credit creation gold" and "commodity gold," you might consider the difference between the commodity as normally quoted and the reality of coins which can be held, admired, bitten, and -- if need be -- hidden. True, the commodity is doing an interesting dance between 347 and 356 USD, but my hunch is that if you showed up at an airport in China and set up a folding table on the sidewalk, you could sell a few rolls of one-ounce coins at any price you chose between $375 and $475. Whether my hunch is right or not in January of 2003, it's a given that in a crisis situation the guy who holds the gold will be the one who sets the price.

Meanwhile (and falling short of any popularly perceived crisis), any move toward reserve currency other than the dollar and any move to price oil other than as so many dollars per barrel will be good for gold.

Usul

(01/08/2003; 01:23:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93726)

Britain's biggest electronics retailer Dixons has compounded fears of a slowdown in consumer spending

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/business/2637755.stm"The company dealt a double blow by issuing a profit warning along with its figures"

ElGordo

(01/08/2003; 01:23:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93727)

Smoke billows from El Palito

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?g=events/wl/031102venezuela&tmpl=sl&e=1Smoke billows behind an oil refinery in El Palito, appoximately 150 miles West of Caracas, January 7, 2003. Workers trying to restart Venezuela's 130,000 barrel per day El Palito refinery, shut by a 37-day strike by foes of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, have damaged a seal in one of the vacum units. 'The products have to be drained from the vacum unit of the plant and they have to be burned', Pedro Jimenez, the plant's logistics manager said. REUTERS/Str
__________
Link takes you to picture of smoke at El Palito

ski

(01/08/2003; 01:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93728)

A Yet Darker Thought ....

Trojan 23:19 #93719 "Lengthy criticism of the Federal Reserve System".... or words to the effect.

You posted some well researched criticisms of the Federal Reserve System .... which also are generally true for all fiat currencies and Central Banks. However, at the top of my list of criticisms is the fiat money systems' impact on making war.

Under the gold standard, you simply had to pay the bill for war with gold and silver. When you ran out of money, the war had to wind down.

The other day I was reading about WW1. This dark fact jumped off the page. Fiat currencies and the creation of the Fed generally took place during the time of WW1. This enabled the slaughter to go on an on and on. Well past the time that the normal forces of gold and silver payment would have ended the war.

My dark thoughts then moved through the remainder of the 20th century and ended with the anticapated war with Iraq. WW2, Korea, Viet Nam, Gulf War 1, Gulf War 2 .... What if we had been on the gold standard all of that time?? How many would still be alive? WHAT HAVE THESE MONEY CHANGERS DONE? HOW MANY MILLONS OF WORLD DEATHS ARE A DIRECT RESULT OF THEIR MONEY CREATION ACTIVITIES? When I asked myself these questions I felt like I was leaking blood. The blood of mankind ....such a dark, dark thought. I can only hope I'm not standing anywhere near them on judgement day.

..................

Just for the record, I spent a year on riverboats in Viet Nam which may give me some standing on this subject. Today, I am neither Hawk nor Dove but am generally anti-war. I am realistic enough to believe that war could become necessary under some very, very limited circumstances. In California, their is a mansion that was built about 1906 that is named FILOLI gardens. Take the name two letters at a time. FIght, LOve, LIve. The builder of the mansion believed that all three are necessary from time to time and so do I.

Sorry, this is not my typical post ....

ElGordo

(01/08/2003; 01:43:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93729)

Artic air mass next week

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/maps_index.asp?partner=&type=flow≥tArea=US_&day=9&btnregst=Get+MapThis will add to the NG draw about the middle of next week.
Lets see if it gets that cold.

ElGordo

(01/08/2003; 01:48:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93730)

British consumer not spending

London, Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Dixons Group Plc, Britain's largest consumer-electronics retailer, said full-year earnings will be as much as 10 percent below analysts' expectations as reduced spending by U.K. consumers causes sales to slow.

Sales in British stores open at least a year were unchanged over the peak Christmas selling season, hurt by faltering demand for video-games consoles, hi-fis and warranties, Chief Executive Officer John Clare said in an interview. Analysts had forecast a 5 percent gain for the owner of Currys, PC World and The Link.

``The consumer has given us a clear signal in December that the consumer economy is starting to slow,'' Clare said on a conference call. ``There's no bright spots on the horizon for the consumer this year and we anticipate a difficult trading period.''

U.K. consumer confidence fell in December to the lowest level in 14 months amid concern that annual house price inflation of about 25 percent is unsustainable. Dixons and rivals such as Game Group Plc cut prices of some products as demand slowed.

Shares of Dixons fell 23 pence, or 16 percent, to 124p at 8:19 a.m. in London. They declined 38 percent last year.

Trojan

(01/08/2003; 02:23:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93731)

For ski "Sorry To Say But You Are So Right"

You make an excellent point. No checks and balances.
PRINT $ War On....

I"ve always admired JFK. I think my admiration for him has increased 10 fold now that I am more knowledgeable about the Evil Federal Reserve System and the Fact that JFK "John FItzgerald Kennedy was the ONLY US President after 1913 who actually wanted to Break Up the Fed.

I always believed that Oswald NEVER acted alone.

Who more powerful than the Mafia of that age then The Money Barons of the World.

It would really make sense for a group about to LOSE the GOLDEN TREASURE to act accordingly.

A Sad Sad World that allows such People to control their Lives.

When the US $ Crashes to .25 THERE Will be Changes.

Be it 1 Year, 5 Years or whenever.

There is Justice in the end.

God help us ALL...

Black Blade

(01/08/2003; 02:59:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93732)

European Markets Look Ugly

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Euro markets are tanking this morning and the Nikkei does not look too healthy either. "Confession Season" is upon us as companies spill their guts about how bad it really is. No wonder the US prez is frantic. It should get "entertaining" as the Lemmings run to and fro as the Keystone Kops of Wall Street flail their arms giving confusing directions.

- Black Blade

Trojan

(01/08/2003; 03:01:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93733)

The New World Order

From a Book by Griffin:

Founders' Fears Realized

Readers may be surprised to learn that the Federal Reserve is the fourth central bank the United States has had, the previous three having crashed in inevitable raging inflation and widespread economic disaster.

So clearly did our Founders understand and fear worthless paper money forced on the public by legal tender laws (precisely what we now have) that they filled the proceedings of the Constitutional Convention with statements of their horror of it. We Americans today, deprived of hearing such truth, need to listen to their words:

George Mason of Virginia: "I have a mortal hatred of paper money."

John Langdon of New Hampshire:"I would rather reject the whole [Constitution] than grant the new government the right to issue fiat money."

George Reed of Delaware: "The right to issue fiat money would be as alarming as the mark of the beast in Revelation."

Thomas Paine: "The punishment of a member of Congress who should move for such a law ought to be death."

Griffin does not stop with presenting the known picture, but projects today's reality into the future. His first projection is a doomsday scenario; his second is a realistic plan for saving our country and ourselves. These chapters might, after all, be the most important ones in the book.

Griffin sees doomsday as an engineered financial debacle the severity of which will cause panicked Americans to welcome a World Bank "rescue" with a world currency.

The IMF/World Bank is already functioning -- in conjunction with the Federal Reserve -- as a world central bank. A world currency is already designed. awaiting a crisis to justify its introduction. From this point on, writes Griffin, there will be no escape from the new world order.

At present the U.S. is being deliberately weakened by seemingly insane spending both at home and abroad: As just one more dismaying example, during President Clinton's recent trip to Europe he blithely promised more billions of dollars to Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic countries. The name of the game is to spend -- on anything, anywhere. The object is to bring down the system.

End Of Exerpt

Well Folks it starts to make sense to me at least.

Bush Sr, Bush Jr, Cheney, Rumsfield and the other WarHawks of the US Government.

They ALL belong to the same Club that the Banks are part of.

So how do you Destroy the US $ and create a World Crisis to get a New World Order ?

You have Greenspan and Bernake Start Bragging about their favorite Toy... "The Printing Press"

You have Bush and his friends create Fear so you can have perpetual wars. You Inflate the Dollar until it must Collapse under it's own weight LIKE History has shown it always does.

Have your cover of War to Blame it on.

I am NOT a conspiracy Nut and I discount most talks concerning same BUT it really starts to make sense if you see Greenspan's move as Deliberate. He is just too knowledgeable to be doing this by chance.

Am I crazy to think this ?

I don't think so But if someone has a better explanation why the FED is behaving the way it is and why Bush is as well. Let's hear your thoughts.

Thank You

Black Blade

(01/08/2003; 03:14:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93734)

Emergency OPEC Meeting Called

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=XCKWGZCTGK2S0CRBAEOCFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=2008108
OPEC Confirms Meeting to Raise Oil Output

Snippit:

DUBAI (Reuters) - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will hold an emergency meeting on January 12 in Vienna to decide on the size of a supply increase to cool world oil prices, an OPEC official confirmed on Wednesday. "The President's office has confirmed the extraordinary meeting for Sunday," said the official, referring to OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah. "There are two proposals. One million barrels per day and 1.5 million barrels a day," the minister told reporters. Asked if any minister was proposing a two million bpd increase, as indicated by an OPEC delegate on Tuesday he said: "No."

Black Blade: It really doesn't matter as OPEC is already cheating on quotas to the tune of 1.4 million bbl/day. There simply is not that much excess capacity outside of Saudi. With another million bbl/production the world oil production will be running nearly flat out. And this during a deep recession when demand is somewhat lowered. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade

(01/08/2003; 03:33:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93735)

Market Indicators

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures are lower, precious metals lower, the USD flat, oil is lower on increased output plans, and NatGas is higher on cold temperature forecasts. Just another day.

- Black Blade

Spartacus

(01/08/2003; 03:39:22 MDT - Msg ID: 93736)

Rising Euro, Oil Prices May Provoke German Crisis

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20Europe&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=euro_currency&s=APhvcgRZmUmlzaW5n
London, Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- For investors who believe in their ability to call market turns Germany is an interesting play right now. At some point, the country will touch the bottom of its decade-long industrial and economic decline. That point could be getting close. --

Trojan

(01/08/2003; 03:40:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93737)

US Dollar On Hold

FOREX-Dollar subdued, fate hinges on Iraq, US jobs data

Wed January 8, 2003 03:59 AM ET
By Christina Fincher

LONDON, Jan 8 (Reuters) - The dollar paused a cent above last week's three-year low against the euro on Wednesday as dealers awaited U.S. jobs data and news regarding Iraq before deciding whether to extend the greenback's recent slide.

The dollar, which tumbled sharply at the end of 2002, rebounded earlier this week on hopes that massive tax cuts announced by President George W. Bush would kickstart the U.S. economy.

But initial enthusiasm petered out as doubts emerged over the effectiveness of the $670 billion package and its longer-term impact on the U.S. current account and budget deficits.

"The longer-term picture is still bearish for the dollar but a good deal of risk aversion is already in the price," said Shahab Jalinoos, currency strategist at UBS Warburg.

"Investors are unwilling to continue selling dollars aggressively when the market is already very short."
The dollar hugged a tight range around $1.04 per euro in early European trade, having hit a three-year low beyond $1.05 on the final day of 2002.

It stood at 120.25 yen , little changed from the New York close.

"The market is lacking a clear direction," said Junya Tanase, global markets officer at JP Morgan Chase in Tokyo. "The market is awaiting further developments on Iraq and in the near term, Friday's (U.S.) unemployment data."

JAPAN INTERVENTION THREATS
The threat of Japanese intervention to stem the yen's unwanted appreciation against the dollar was also helping to stabilise the greenback.
Japan's top financial diplomat, Haruhiko Kuroda, reiterated on Wednesday that Tokyo's foreign exchange policy had not changed, suggesting the country remained ready to step in to stem rapid currency moves.

Kuroda's predecessor, Eisuke Sakakibara, said that Japanese authorities could step into the currency market if the dollar falls below 120 yen.

"Solo intervention by Japan is possible if the dollar falls below 120 yen," Sakakibara, once known as "Mr Yen" for his influence over currency markets and still regarded as influential in financial circles, told Reuters in an interview.

"In that case, the United States won't be against it," he said.

The comments followed remarks from Japan's Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa on Tuesday that the dollar at 125 yen would be a stable rate.

With little on the economic agenda on Wednesday, most dealers were looking ahead to Friday's U.S. jobs report for December.

The report is expected to show U.S. unemployment held steady at six percent. Jobs figures are closely watched by the markets as they are considered a good leading indicator of consumer demand.

Hipplebeck

(01/08/2003; 04:56:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93738)

Trojan

http://www.utm.edu/research/iep/s/sophists.htmI don't think you are crazy at all.
I believe there are great spiritual forces at work.
Satan works through these men. They believe they are doing the right thing, but because of ego they have cast their lot with the dark force. It is the desire for power over others that blinds them.
Jesus told his followers that he was "not of this world".
There is this world, the worldy system of things and there is the kingdom of heaven in which Jesus lived his life.
We are here for a very short time. Much, much more is at stake than just how much money can I make, or how famous can I get. The ego has a great need to control everything around it because it is so afraid of it's own demise. That's why powerful people are so obsessed with controlling everything around them. Unless a man lose his own life he cannot gain it. It is too simple for sophists to get.

Black Blade

(01/08/2003; 05:05:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93739)

A Cold Blast in Winter

http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=145
Snippit:

Over the past week, a much clearer picture has begun to emerge regarding the most likely weather pattern between now and the end of the winter heating season in March.
This developing pattern is likely to bring extremely cold Arctic or even potentially Siberian cold air masses into the eastern U.S. for prolonged stretches during the next 8-10 weeks. If the emerging pattern unfolds as the meteorologists with whom we have been working most closely believe is likely to occur, it will have far-reaching implications for the natural gas and electricity markets in the U.S. Beginning in mid January, natural gas could be withdrawn from storage at record rates. Before the end of the month, natural gas prices could well be pushed well above $8/MMBTU.

Further, if repeated Arctic incursions occur over the next several weeks, by mid-February many LDC's may find it increasingly difficult to obtain sufficient supplies to meet their current storage targets for the remainder of the winter heating season. As a result, it may be necessary for LDC's to bid prices up aggressively in order to drive out of the market a significant fraction of the remaining industrial load and replenish rapidly dwindling reserves. This in turn could put further upward pressure on the spot market price for natural gas in an increasingly tight market. Prices above $10/MMBTU cannot by any means be ruled out. Higher-than-expected withdrawals from storage this winter also are likely to have a significant impact on natural gas prices during the summer months � increasing the market clearing-price for electricity this coming summer and setting the stage for continued higher-than-expected natural gas prices in the winter of next year. Over the course of 2003, therefore, steep price increases are inevitable.

Notably, however, even though weather for the winter season to date has been very close to historical norms (and, in fact, slightly milder than climatologically normal weather), the draw down from storage has been huge � i.e., a total of 755 BCf, since storage peaked in late October. This is more than 50% greater than the 5-year average of 496 BCf for the same period � a clear and unmistakable sign of the severity of the current imbalance between supply and demand in the U.S. market. The weather scientists with whom we have been working have been predicting since mid-November, however, that by sometime in early January, a new weather pattern might develop, with the potential to bring Arctic or even Siberian air masses into the Midwest and the Northeast for prolonged periods in January, February and potentially even early March. The first such cold air mass now appears nearly certain to be drawn deeply into the U.S. by the end of this coming week (i.e, January 10th) and to remain ensconced in the U.S. for a period of up to 10 to 14 days. The weather scientists with whom we have been working believe this air mass is likely to bring with it the coldest Arctic outbreak in several years and to usher in a prolonged period of well below average temperatures.

As a result, even though temperatures already will be starting to plummet when the report is issued, the withdrawal reported on the 9th is likely to be among the lowest of the winter season � i.e., almost certainly less than 100 BCf and quite possibly below the 91 BCf withdrawal that occurred in late November. Further, even the Weekly Storage Report issued on January 16th will not yet reflect the impact of the extremely cold air likely to be lingering in the eastern U.S. when the report is issued. The report issued on January 23rd, however, could show a truly stunning withdrawal � i.e., in all likelihood more than 200 BCf in a single week. As the weather patterns continue to evolve over the course of the winter, therefore, the upward pressure on natural gas prices could become intense.

Black Blade: I have been discussing this possibility for some time now. If we do get this Artic, or God forbid a Siberian Blast there is no possible way to have enough injection into storage to offset a devastating energy crisis of epic proportions. What this would do to the economy is obvious "economic stimulus proposals" notwithstanding. Check and Mate!!!

Gatekeeper

(01/08/2003; 05:21:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93740)

Christian READ THIS

I don't want to be pedantic but the article states that Kennedy's Executive Order was issued on June 4th 1963 and "three weeks later Kennedy was assassinated".

My recollection is that Kennedy was assassinated in November of 1963.

Maverick1

(01/08/2003; 05:32:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93741)

Black Blade

Have you receive any info that Delco-Remy was closing their Anderson , Indiana plant?

Black Blade

(01/08/2003; 05:48:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93742)

Re: Maverick1 � Delco

Delco Remy to close Anderson plants, lay off 400

ANDERSON, Indiana - Auto parts maker Delco Remy International Inc. said it will close its starter- and alternator-manufacturing plants in Anderson and lay off 400 workers. Citing pressures from overseas competitors, the company said Tuesday that production of Delco Remy America starters and alternators would be shifted to other Delco Remy plants worldwide. The cuts are expected to be completed by the end of March.

Black Blade: Delco does their part to contribute to the growing "Bone Pile". The announcement says that it's "not viable". Just like the guy in the movie "Falling Down" who is protesting in front of the bank screaming that they turned him down for a loan because he is "not viable". We will see a lot more of this I am afraid.

Black Blade

(01/08/2003; 06:03:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93743)

Do you need to hold more gold?

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?id={CA13FA61-AFB5-4A33-8680-CC2A6223ADD1}
Insurance policy: How to add gold exposure to your personal portfolio

Snippit:

In 2002, gold was no longer an asset class to be scoffed at. Over the year, the price of gold bullion rose almost 25% to US$347.60 an ounce. Anyone with the traditional 5% or 10% "insurance" hedge in bullion or precious metals mutual funds would have nicely offset the stock market's doldrums. Gold bugs such as Dow Theory Letter's Richard Russell are convinced the moves of the last month are just the beginning. "My choice for the sector to be in during 2003 is gold," he writes in the current issue. "I believe that gold is in the early stages of a major or primary bull market." Buying gold or silver bullion or coins directly through dealers or the Bank of Nova Scotia in downtown Toronto. Those who feel uncomfortable with mere "paper claims" on mining stocks may prefer the feeling of owning "real money" directly. Those living in less stable economies, such as Asia or parts of Latin America, may well be glad they took out such insurance in 2002. Coins or bullion can be held in a safety deposit box or hidden somewhere.

Black Blade: I don't agree with all the author's conclusions, however, he is right about Gold as a form of insurance. The more Gold the better.

Maverick1

(01/08/2003; 06:20:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93744)

Thanks Black Blade

My brother works there. For the past 2 years he has rolled his eyes at my "doom and gloom" economic predictions. What more can I say. I didn't think he would tell me.

Christian

(01/08/2003; 06:51:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93745)

The difference between credit creation gold + commodity gold

Reserve Requirements is a tool for monetary policy, computed as % of deposits that banks must hold in cash form. Presently on big banks they are 10% on transaction accounts (checkbook money) and 3% on small banks. There is NO (no) recerve requirements on time deposits and therefore can expand without limit. There is no regulation or law to stop a bank from using an off balance sheet gold loan and deposit it on its own account as a time deposit. I have yet to see a bank that does not use it. There is no need anymore for savings deposit. Matter of fact many banks are giving the depositers the middle finger with ever reduced rates on time deposits. Why pay a savings depositor more on interest than the gold lease rate. Why indeed? Banks can and do protect the risk of gold price going up with options or futures contract. So in other words an off balance sheet debt becomes a time deposit that has reserve requirements and therefore can expand without regard to reserve levels. With this process a $1000 off balance sheet gold loan can be turned into credit creation loan of unlimited supply. A 20% reserve requirements a $1,000 can be turned into $5,000, a 10% a $1,000 can be turned into $10,000 at 5%=$20,000, at 2.5%=$40,000, at 1.25%=$80,000 and on and on it expands. 0% requirement it can expand without regard to reserve levels. Commodity gold is for commodity use and priced for commodity use. Credit creation gold is only traded between central banksters and the price is determined by credit creation opportunity use of that gold. Presently that is in the area of $10,500 a troy oz. According to the FED gold will be allowed to move to $467 which will bring credit creation (monetary) gold to be priced at $14,000 and that will be sufficient to give the $ a 15% gold backing like the Euro has.---- I would like to see people with brains far better then this uneducated farm boy to improve the accuracy of this post. The people in this world need to understand what credit control is, and what it can do or not do for you. But most important we need to find a better way, and a way out of credit slavery. We need to understand how credit can be forced on you, be it on the federal or state or even local level. The Constitution gives us our freedom, but this credit creation is enslaving us and future children into slavery. There was no debt on this country of ours before the white man came. Now everything is indebted and belongs to a trust (DTC) owned by the FED.

a nation of one

(01/08/2003; 07:01:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93746)

controversial

One difference between a policeman in your neighborhood, and a nation that acts like a policeman toward other nations, is that a real policeman is paid a salary to which all of the taxpaying neighbors contribute. A police-nation, though, only gets money from its own citizens, not from other nations. It is like a man wanting to be a policeman, but who pays all of the expenses for it out of his own pocket. And though there are some exceptions, your neighbors generally agree that neighborhood policing is needed, whereas sovereign nations typically prefer to solve their own problems themselves. To me it looks like a recipe for disaster: Just go on over to your neighbor's place, and tell him that if he doesn't get rid of his guns, you'll burn his house down. Somehow it does not seem excessively smart.

Mr Gresham

(01/08/2003; 07:19:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93747)

Ski: Dammit!

I just wanted to click in and breeze through the early posts before going out to run, and you put in that great one about jobs during the depression. Which I got to after skimming over so many others with the thought "Great stuff" "Later" "Back to you". Yours stopped me cold. (But I'm still getting out on the road -- "any minute now".)

So much good reading -- time? What time!?!

Sometimes I think of Steve H's heading "Defending Gold", but in my case the thought comes through as "how can I keep up an income in any adverse time?" so that I wouldn't have to sell off PMs earlier than I wanted to. Posts like yours make the Forum really useful for me in the directions things are likely to go. You always have to have a business plan and business strategy. Thank you!

a nation of one

(01/08/2003; 07:31:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93748)

@ Trojan (1/8/03; 03:01:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 93733)

No you are not crazy. You are simply awake to the world we live in.

a nation of one

(01/08/2003; 07:42:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93749)

@ Hipplebeck (1/8/03; 04:56:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 93738)

You say: "The ego has a great need to control everything around it because it is so afraid of it's own demise. That's why powerful people are so obsessed with controlling everything around them."

--This is not a quality of the human ego, because, if it were, all men would have it. It is the result of a conscious decision made by some individuals. Any grown male is liable to have had the opportunity to have made a similar decision numerous times. I have had many. But it is wiser to decide only to be an authority over oneself, and many individual men in addition to myself also reach this same conclusion. These do not seek to control others. Yet they still have egos.

Belgian

(01/08/2003; 07:48:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93750)

@ Mikal & elevator guy : The euro and Gold.

The euro is NOT backed by Gold. The euro has Gold-exchange-reserves behind it. The ECB plus the 12-member national banks of the EMU, individualy, have Gold in their vaults
as to manage the intrinsic value of the euro-currency.
There are many purposes for this CB-Gold reserves. Because a currency must serve many purposes as well. The creation of more euro-currency needs a proportionate valuation of it's Gold reserves, in price or goldvolume. That's why all EMU-joiners must bring in some Gold to the ECB in exchange for having their old national currency be transformed in euro. This also counts for non EMU members who wish to change their dollar-reserves for euro-reserves. Gold must come in the ECB/BIS vaults for more euro in reserve.

It speaks for itself that all those outstanding CB dollar-reserves cannot chase Gold at the same time when euro are desired for reserves instead of dollars. That's why on LBMA there are more outstanding paper-gold-claims than there is aboveground Gold on our planet !!! Much More claims waiting to be served than there is Gold available to perform these contracts.

Not enough Gold available means that its price must rise !

This situation (concept) is in sharp cntrast with the dollar. >>> Since A.G. took over as the chairman, the FED has added 5 TRILLION $ to the world's (huge) supply of dollars, and may add another 1 TRILLION $ this year.
During that same period, Gold about 800 million ounces (24,000 tonnes) of Gold were added to world supplies...OR ONE OUNCE FOR EVERY 6,250 $ !!! (daily reckoning)

The euro wants to become an oil-specialized currency, thanks to its concept linked to oil and Gold-exchange-reserves together. BIS-member Saudi Arabia is brother in arms and not all oil-producers share this intention. That's why the Gold-dinar risks to grow big. Oil is so large that abrupt maneuvering would distort the Goldmarket completely.
The euro is buffering for the time being through the paper-contract-goldmarket on the now public LBMA since 1997.

Put this Saudi Arabia center-function into the ME-turmoil at present and we might have an explanation for many paradoxes in this arena. For instance, what is the stance of the Saddam-regime towards this ? Did Iraq and Saudi Arabia renewed economic links, recently ? etc...etc...

As long as Saudi Arabia (swing-producer) is controlling sufficiant supply and the POO...the euro-oil-Gold concept is in progress. When this fails it means total chaos induced by oil. When Arabian oil-producers can keep the POO cheap in a specialized (euro) oil-currency, linked to Gold...they automatically avoid the search for alternatives under whatever form and have herewith assured quasi 100% offtake for the immense existing ME-oilreserves !
ME-oil costing 2$ and Caspian/Northsea/other oils costing fourfold. You can be sure that the evolving China-Giant, future oil-consumer, is much in favor of these dynamics.

To make the above happen in a durable fashion...a FREE PHYSICAL Goldmarket in an oil-specialized currency (euro)*must* come to live. So that these two most political resources can trade as purest *wealth*.

Once such a free physical goldmarket is established, much of the currency's problems might find a solution and the global economy can expand further in a more balanced way.
The dollar will certainly join this concept. It is only a matter of getting the dollar-dominance out of the way for the good of "all" of us. A painfull operation or maybe not ?

Zhisheng

(01/08/2003; 08:06:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93751)

Belgian (93750)

I have read that any nation joining the European Monetary Union has the right to secede if it later decides to do so.

You write that when a nation joins, it most contribute some gold as its currency is transformed into Euros.

Question: should a nation elect to secede, can it recover the gold it previously contributed?

The Hoople

(01/08/2003; 08:12:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93752)

Oops, we're over the debt limit aagain

A quick check of the Treasury gross public debt in Barron's today shows a whopping 78 billion $ increase in the first week of the new year. This brings the total to 6,405.7 b. ,exceeding the 6,400.0 b. limit by 5 billion. Has anyone seen a single mention of this in any media? We are in violation of our government law, even before 600 b. stimulus packages and wars are implemented. Gold should be ripping off $100 gains instead of the $2 collar zone. It will one day.

Calidor

(01/08/2003; 08:15:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93753)

Alcoa to layoff 8,000

Snippit -

Alcoa misses, sets plan to lay off 8,000 (AA) By Steve Gelsi
Alcoa (AA) reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $223 million, or 27 cents per share, compared to a loss of $142 million, or 17 cents per share in the year-ago period. Income from continuing operations was $133 million, or 16 cents per share, including a $40 million or 5 cents per share in non-recurring after tax charges. Not including the charge, continuing income would have been 21 cents per share. A survey of analysts by Multex forecasted earnings of 25 cents per share. Revenue was $5.06 billion, short of the Multex forecast of $5.29 billion. The aluminum giant also set plans to lay off 8,000. It started 2003 with 127,000 employees. Shares of Alcoa were unchanged at $24.38 on Tuesday.

Calidor - As of market open, AA share price dropped about 1.80. This doesn't make for a "Happy New Year" for those being pointed towards the door.

rsjacksr

(01/08/2003; 08:16:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93754)

Alcoa to Slash 8,000 Jobs; Loss Widens to $223 Million as Sales Decline

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhw6MxUQQWxjb2EgSNIP: The company is also divesting some packaging, chemicals, construction and automotive businesses. About 2,100 employees work at the units to be divested, spokesman Kevin Lowery said. Alcoa, which cut about 10,000 jobs last year, has 127,000 employees

rsjacksr

(01/08/2003; 08:19:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93755)

Sorry. Calidor beat me to the punch

I'll have to learn to be faster. At least you have the link

CoBra(too)

(01/08/2003; 08:26:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93756)

@ Zischeng - It's Not so much About the � -

Though any Nation joining the EU has the right to secede, should the country so wish. In terms of the common currency, since only 12 out of 15 states adopted the � it should be same. At this stage, with so many new nations queing for membership it is a rather unlikely probability - even if Germans remonstrate against the EU and ECB spanking.

Let's see what the EU Convent will bring forward. A first draft will be available for discussions in late January and the final version, including a constitution by end of June.

Regards cb2

White Rose

(01/08/2003; 08:26:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93757)

Christian: what do you mean about credit creation gold

Dear Christian:

For a long time, I have heard you speak about this unusual property of "credit creation gold". As I understand it, bankers have some magic process by which gold can be used to create wealth out of thin air.

Gold has many unusual properites: it is portable, it is rare, it has intrinsic value (it is not a promise to repay), it has an and distinctive unusual color, it is quite mallable, it does not tarnish, so that it retains its beauty for year, it is divisiable, making it easy to perform commercial transactions. No wonder gold has had a monetary role for five thousand years.

When you speak of "credit creation gold", you describe a process by which many loans are created with a small amount of collateral or you describe the basic process of banking (by which a minor desposit can yield a much larger asset to be loaned out; this process of money creation is supposed to be limited by the bank's reserve ratio).

I maintain that there are many assets that can be used in the same way -- large loans can be created from real estate. In fact, the Savings and Loan scandal of past years was based on the creation of large loans on the back on minor league collateral. We do not speak of "commodity real estate" and "credit creation real estate" yet the same processes are at work.

I will admit that the intrinsic worth of gold -- I can buy it and then resell it quickly for virtually the same amount -- can make it easier to abuse than gold.

I would argue that the creation of a leveraged financial instrument is interesting. We focus on the nature of the instrument -- how stable it can be and for how long. We do not say that it is an automatic creation of the collateral.

Please Mr. Christian: provide me with some evidence that gold is bought or sold for the value of the leveraged finance that can be created from the collateral value of the gold. If you cannot show evidence of these transactions, then please stop speaking of "credit creation gold".

Hipplebeck

(01/08/2003; 08:38:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93758)

gold and the dollar

Coup De Gras

How will it happen?
A monumental battle between the long and short positions.
An unexpected number of contracts will declare for delivery.
Lock-up.
Limit-up.
Shut down.

just my opinion

Rock

(01/08/2003; 08:39:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93759)

Blackblade, Silvergolong, Ski

Thanks for the feedback regarding the unemployment saga. Like Silvergolong said, whats a $150.00 a week going to do anyway, who can live of that, however its still something. Meanwhile, so much for the stock market rally, I'll can the expression from my pontificating friend Sir Blackblade, "dead cat bounce." Looks like the Brits were on the ball yesterday when they busted those terrorist with that poison. That was some nasty stuff and no cure! That poison will take about five years to find a cure for.

Meanwhile with all this bad news I don't know how the economies around the world can recover. Its going to take a lot more than a few hundred bucks of credit relief to repair the US economy. I told the wife today that each family needs about $10,000 of relief to boost the economy, then you'll get consumer spending. With all this debt what little relief we do get will go straight into paying down that personal debt as opposed to going out and buying more junk. Bushes speech sounded good at first glance and you can't blame him for trying but quite frankly its short lived after all look at the SM today. My prediction is the market will shortly give back all the gains of last week.

One thing that does make me feel somewhat better is when I cashed out my 401K after resigning from the medical company I worked for in 1999 I took $28,000 and bought 25,000 worth of gold bullion and 3,000 worth of silver. I told the wife at least we have something for that rainy day although today we have very little savings and basically were living off the wife's check from week to week. Wouldn't it be nice if they eliminated the capital gain taxes? Well, off to the sofa, I'm one sick puppy.

Cheers,

Rock

a nation of one

(01/08/2003; 08:42:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93760)

@ The Hoople (1/8/03; 08:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 93752)

"Oops, we're over the debt limit aagain...." and, "We are in violation of our government law,...," [meaning that Congress is breaking its own laws].

--To justify breaking a rule once is hard. The second time is easier. After awhile, they don't even need to justify it. That's the point we're at now. Soon, Congress will not have to follow any laws at all.

CoBra(too)

(01/08/2003; 08:56:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93761)

Nice Article on Bill Bonner's Daily Reckoning on Gold -

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index.cfm-And there might be a series. Just the final paragraph says it all:

"And if he reaches in his pocket, he finds no gold. Instead, he sees green pieces of paper. He's been told they are worth something. Everyone seems to agree...for he can exchange them for the things he wants. Today, he can buy an ounce of gold for less than $350. The crowd judges it a fair trade today. Will it tomorrow?

More to come...."

You got'ta luv those guys - cb2

(01/08/2003; 09:32:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93762)

Hoople. . .

This is a bad time to go back to Congress and ask for an upping of the debt limit. The Democrats are likely to make a political football of it given the developing wrangle over tax cuts. They are already grousing about the deficit reinforcing my belief that politics in Washington has little do with the right policy for the country but what serves the political interests of the players on both sides. Do any of us really believe that the Democrats would so sactimonious about the deficit if they were in power? The Republicans have a majority so it may not be as bad this time around as it was several years back when they actually closed down the government for a few days. They'll ram it through and the Democrats will just stand around fuming.

This is the most accelerated build-up in the national debt I have seen in all the years I've monitored that figure. My guess is that it's unprecedented though I haven't done the comparative mathematics. No matter what happens in the Beltway, this addition to the debt and the monetization sure to coat-tail it will have a negative effect on the dollar. Money supply numbers are beginning to chart like a rocket tragectory.

On the subject of oil (in which I know you have an interest), there was a report last night in the International Herald Tribune that just with Venezuela we are losing about 3 million barrels a day. Pre- Vienna OPEC meeting number crunching has the step-up pegged at 1.5 million barrels at best. The Qatar rep came out and said 1 million was realistic. Woefully short, as one analyst put it. There are danger signs popping up all over the place and that's why gold bottomed and broke the other way overnight. Looks like the oil market is trading more on technicals than it is fundamentals at the moment. Alot of people in this market pushed one way or another by "trend" playing rather than an understanding of the deeper undercurrents.

Gold is also reacting to rumors in Japan that they are going the way of an "inflationist" in keeping with the world reflation trend. Who knows. I never trust the Japanese government when it comes to the yen. They have ways of trashing it we've never thought of. In the end though world investors will be looking to see what their own currency gains or loses in real purchasing power. If you remember the old charts from back in the 1970s gold, the yen and d-mark travelled together -- as apparently Japan must have given-in to U.S. pressure.

By the way, one more point for general consumption: The Japanese do not have a treaty with the United States that they cannot buy gold. Remember Hashimoto. . .His threat to sell U.S. Treasuries and buy gold was not taken by the markets as a hollow threat from someone mandated by treaty to ignore yellow metal. I believe they may be buying gold quietly, as the people running that country are not fools. They see what's coming down the road and they are also looking over their shoulder at China (on the record as a gold accumulator).

On Switzerland and gold: Could it be that the cat papa throws out the front door is let in by Mama at the back door? The Swiss aren't fools either, and what they do for public consumption and to assuage the EU may not be the real policy behind closed doors. One thing I've understood very well after all these years in the gold market, there are two tiers of interest -- one for political consumption and one stemming from national interest. That's a source of a great deal of confusion, but it also stimulates great interest and speculation as to what is going on. When it comes to gold, don't believe that any nation state abhors it. Believe that some states have interests which preclude a publicly stated interest in the metal. Quite often you don't know what's going on, until it's all over. Fundamentally though, I doubt that much has changed among the major players with respect to the yellow metal. Only the press believes the barbarous relic rhetoric.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/08/2003; 09:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93763)

Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutmore.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

Zhisheng

(01/08/2003; 10:13:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93764)

$350 Gold

Pawing at the door again!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/08/2003; 10:17:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93765)

**NEW** TOLL FREE phone numbers for our INTERNATIONAL clients.

http://www.usagold.com/phone.html

Living Across the Water, or Downunder? No worries, Mate.
Your access to gold is an easy phone call away.

This international information page is for our clients and friends just like you.

We are pleased to pass along what our European clientele have been telling us -- that our pricing is superior to most of their banks and brokerage firms. We share your view that actions speak louder than words, therefore we support and encourage delivery of the gold while our competitors primarily promote certificate programs. Go figure. That equation solves itself. With USAGOLD - Centennial you'll get a good price AND get what you pay for!

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals has recently fulfilled gold orders for clients in

European Delivery New Zealand
Monaco
Germany
the Netherlands
Austria
Ireland
Finland
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Canada
and,
of course,
the United States.

Christian

(01/08/2003; 10:29:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93766)

(No Subject)

Lending out commodity gold for credit creation is and has been feasible and profitable for hundreds of years. The leverage potential with all of the new financial means (derivatives) makes it more so. ---- AG said 20 some years ago= "Central Banks use a credit creation mechanism (reserve banking) used for converting commodity gold to credit creation monetary gold to increase to a greater degree of leverage and liquidity in banking than commodity gold alone would itself support. This leverage and risk taking can greatly increase the possibility of profits or losses, bank failures or buy outs depending who is profiting or going into bankruptcy. Any use of sovereign credit creates moral hazard, a distortion of incentives that occurs when the party that determines the level of risk receives the gains from, but does not bear the full costs of, the risks taken.

The Hoople

(01/08/2003; 10:36:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93767)

MK, I think they just heard us.

Judging by the quick POG pop. I too have never witnessed the parabolic growth of debt (all levels, not just government) as we are now seeing. Anybody thinking entitlements of any kind are secure should look at those debt graphs and understand the only way out is to thoroughly debase them. I remember 25 years ago my father received about $600 a month in Social Security and his rent was $240. Now he receives $1200 a month and his rent is $850. Rent used to be 40% of Social Security and now it is 70%. This will dramatically accelerate IMO and people will be overwhelmed with even more debt. Funny, yet not, that a little shop in Denver called Centennial Precious Metals provides the only real measure of protection from that nauseating future. I can't imagine the consequences of ignoring the sign posts that are so boldly flashing danger.

GratefulForGold

(01/08/2003; 10:45:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93768)

SPOT's gettin' frisky

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Currently at $353.19 after being higher. US$ getting ill ($102.04). DOW and DUCK slip sliding away. Interesting action today.

Gandalf the White

(01/08/2003; 10:48:30 MDT - Msg ID: 93769)

NO Barriers for SPOT and SPIKE !!! <;-)

JUMP SPOT, JUMP !!!
Way ta GO, SPIKE !!!
The PAPER Gold is getting RIPPED !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/08/2003; 11:06:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93770)

<;-)

NICE JUMP, SPIKE !!
SPOT at #355+ now !!!
<;-)

Zhisheng

(01/08/2003; 11:06:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93771)

Again!

Spot $355 breached.

sector

(01/08/2003; 11:17:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93772)

yen and euro shoot up...dollar falls vertically and gold...

...jumps to $354Pretty clear there's a relationship between these four metrics.

What is interesting is the rapidity of the dollar move today...a vertical shot down about 80 cents worth.

Sure looks like the "Overseas" US Treasuries are being "mailed home" by the Europeans and Japanese.

This also says something about all the "Weak yen" jawboning in Tokyo...perhaps it is just polite cocktail talk by the Japanese leadership and the BOJ. After all, how many yen would it take to absorb significant European, non-government Japanese repatriation of their considerable US Treasury hoard and still force the yen down by the BOJ purchasing dollars with "New" yen?

An apt analogy seems to be a leaking canoe with holes that keep getting bigger and bailing buckets that keep getting smaller.

Then there's the $600 billion in elderly Japanese savings, 10% of which would totally drain the central bank's vaults of any remaining un-loaned or un-swapped gold [16,000 tonnes].

And now a word from SECTREAS John "Mr. Balanced Budget" Snow regarding the President's newly minted 3/4 Trillion, ten-year, "Stimulus package" and how it all fits in to a neat cohesive package.

If the President's military planning is anything like his economic blueprint then Saddam has nothing to worry about.

What a country.

TownCrier

(01/08/2003; 11:20:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93773)

My own friends have asked me how they can buy gold. A good question!

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.htmlIt couldn't be easier, really.

Visit the page above for an overview of the many gold bullion items and gold coins available.

Locate the toll free number for the United States or for overseas, depending on your locale.

Call the friendly staff at USAGOLD - Centennial.

If you are not sure who you should talk to, Marie (ext.106) [or Jill] can direct your call.

Jonathan ext.110
MK ext.101
George ext.102

Jon, Mike, or George will be happy to discuss current market prices and diversification strategies with you.

Done, and done!

Easy, wasn't it?

Ultimately, you must do this for yourself, because no one else will do it for you. (Centennial is standing by to help.)

Now go out there and make me proud.

Randy

Gandalf the White

(01/08/2003; 11:43:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93774)

GREAT JOB, Spike and SPOT !!!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1LOOK at this BEAUTIFUL chart of the day !! (see LINK)
DID you see the GC3G (Feb COMEX) PAPER Gold get thrown at $356. ????
WOWSERS, did it FLY !!!
You dogs REST for the night and LET us watch you tomorrow.
It is up the the Roos and Pandas to "HOLD the LINE" !!
<;-)

White Rose

(01/08/2003; 11:43:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93775)

Mr Christian: The Reality of "Credit Creation Gold"

Here is my point. Lets say there are two banks, A and B. Bank A takes a ton of gold and uses advanced financial mechanisms to create additional money. I suspect that the mechanism that created the additional money encumbers the ton of gold in some way. Of course, like all bank-created money, it it not money in the hands of the banks, it is money in the form of additional loans owed the bank. When the loans are paid back, that destroys the additional money supply. So there is no way for tha banker to "capture" this additional money supply directly into his pocket for buying and selling. Instead, the entire economy enjoys the additional money while the loans are on the books. Naturally, the banker profits marginally by the additional business. But the full value of the newly created money does not fall into this hands.

Lets say bank B wanted to do the same thing, but bank B did not have any gold. I presume that if they wanted the gold of bank A, then bank A would have to reverse their financial arrangements and would have to send much if not all the newly created money (new loans) to money heaven.

Thus bank B would go into the general marketplace to purchase gold at the "commodity price". What I am trying to show is that you are confusing the cost to the bank of buying and selling gold (at the "commodity price") with the full amount of increase in the money supply which is not in the hands of the banker.

While gold is used by banks to "create credit". I do not see any transaction whereby gold is ever bought or sold at a higher "credit creation price". Please demonstrate to me that this "credit creation price" exists as a means of completing some sort of financial exchange.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/08/2003; 11:52:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93776)

The Fruit of Your Labor: another day, another dollar?

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

Mr Gresham

(01/08/2003; 11:54:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93777)

EEEE-YIKES!

Somebody's buyin' those dips! They sure don't last as long as they used to.

MK: Any backup plans for when we become too popular a site for our own good? You've always had to ride the delicate balance between this site as your business resource and as a forum for the expression of "Golden Thoughts".

You know we attract some great talent (for amateurs,-- ;) -- anyway) and we were all newbies once, too. Maybe a two-tier forum, with passwords awarded to the "A" team after a track record on the "B"?

OK, OK, I'm putzin' to avoid work; I'll leave the juicy stuff like this up to you. It's probably at least a year off, anyway (wink, wink?)

PH in LA

(01/08/2003; 11:59:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93778)

Money Creation

MK:

I remember clearly that Another predicted that the Greenspan Fed would be forced to increase the money supply exponentially as the only viable way of fighting a rearguard defense as their only option to complete collapse.

It has become very clear that the POG is still "under control" and that someone has decided to "control" it to a higher price; very good and valuable news for physicl accumulators.

Thanks, Belgian for all your good thoughts!

(01/08/2003; 12:05:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93779)

Gold share / bullion trading

The way I see it is this: either the gold price is way ahead of itself and is due to correct $20 for a while or it is going to keep going and the shares will snap up like a rubber band to play catch up once they realize that this move is for real.
In the SHORT TERM few traders I know believe that this is for real and therefore they won't remaing long the stocks. I think they are in for a rude awakening and the stocks are going to be playing catch up here in the next few days!!!
Which camp is right? Stay tuned...it will be dramatic either way.

G$

Gandalf the White

(01/08/2003; 12:16:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93780)

YES Sir G$ !!! BUT things appear to be DIFFERENT this time !

Note the large spread on the Bid Ask of the Feb COMEX contract at today's close! $1.5 !!!
The GC3G Settlement today was $354.3 while the Bid was $353.5 and the ASK = $355.0 !!!
The RANGE on the day was from a Low of $345.3 and a HIGH = $356.0 !!!
Like a little girl said to her dog -- Toto, THINGS don't look the same here anymore !
<;-)

Sierra Madre

(01/08/2003; 12:19:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93781)

Ski: jobs and economic activities that should flourish...

That was a useful post of yours, the first of today's posts.

Looking to the future, it seems to me that there is one activity that will flourish in the coming years, and that will be BUS TRANSPORTATION.

Greyhound has seen better days, but I think a renewed Greyhound-type company - several of them, perhaps - will have a firm place in the U.S. economy from here on.

Too many people have figured that air travel is the only way to go. And worse, too many people are now relying on their cars to move about.

Depression-type problems will favor bus transportation, which has been very much forgotten, since the 40's.

Local bus service companies, to transport people from suburbs to city centers and back, will probably have plenty of customers who cannot afford to keep their cars or pay high gasoline prices, which are just down the road.

If there are going to be make-work programs by government (setting aside for the moment, whether they should or should not exist) then it would seem to me, that a logical scheme would be a vast undertaking to reconstruct the railway system of the USA, tying it into urban transportation via buses on scheduled runs. Better to build railways than jet fighters and tanks.

One of the purposes of owning gold, is to be able to rebuild the country a little later on, by protecting capital from paper money destruction.

Sierra

(01/08/2003; 12:24:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93782)

PH in LA. ..

Good to see your name come up on the board. Yes, Another was right on that as he was on many insights. Going back to 1998 he saw much of this coming. It's beginning to look like a controlled melt-down of the dollar as a matter of policy with the administration and the Fed in concert -- based on the public pronouncements of both Greenspan and surrogate reinforcement from Bernanke. And gold is being let go as well.

This has got to be blistering the hedged mining companies to see themselves being hung out to dry like this. You've got to wonder what they think of the co-ordinated change in fiscal and monetary policy because they are being dragged through the wringer on this. The financial world has gotten the message loud and clear. About a month ago reports started surfacing of very strong physical demand in the Mid-East with Jeffrey Christian at CPM uncustomarily voicing a muted enthusiasm. So you also have the "Footsteps" scenario in full bloom. . . . .

On Greenspan: Think for a moment what a leap it was for Greenspan to come out publicly for rolling the high-speed printing presses. When you recall his past statements going back to 19087 and moving forward, he preached consitently and patiently about the dangers of a loose, inflationary monetary policy, and with what's being said now, it's nearly unbelievable.

It's not difficult for me to think that any Fed chairman would use all the tools in the toolbox. It is surprising to see him do it and tell the world he's going to do it. Everything he didn't want to be as Fed chairman, he's become: Paul Volcker in the first two thirds of his chairmanship and Arthur Burns in last one third. An interesting study if we can ever get an honest biography written on the guy. I would almost pose him as a Shakespearean hero/anti-hero buffeted by Fate and the Times. Politics rules, PH. And the politics now is for a weaker dollar.

Maybe we should start republishing some of those Thoughts at this Forum again?? Or maybe someday soon we'll get some new ones. Didn't he say he's be back at $340 gold. Do any of our Forum historians remember the number quoted??

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 12:30:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93783)

Zhisheng

I consider this the 3rd attempt at 354/355, I wonder if we clear soon?

Leigh

(01/08/2003; 13:02:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93784)

Another's Promised Return

I believe he promised to return at $360, MK. I hope he's getting his post ready, because he might need it soon!!

The CoinGuy

(01/08/2003; 13:14:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93785)

On the Trail of Hedgers...

MK Quote: So you also have the "Footsteps" scenario in full bloom. . . . .

Michael, I've never doubted for a moment. As far as the hedgers go, straight from the mouth of John Embry, "Barrick could run into trouble with its book at $400 gold". We'll soon find out.

Great to see you posting,

The(physical)CoinGuy

Christian

(01/08/2003; 13:19:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93786)

@ Rose White

Gold that is bought and sold at the credit creation price are traded on the OTC as credit swaps. However most of it is done with private contract. Example GE (General Electric) has a large commodity gold short position that they use for credit creation purposes. Many a time GE has enabled a big buyer of its production to buy (pay) for that production with credit swaps to the buyer that enabled them to make that very purchase. Look very carefully at the deals J.P.Morgan has with SWC on their Russian mine (nickel?? I think it is) or did with Enron all made possible by credit swaps. Companies like Asarco (sp) owes J.P.Morgan 3 million ounces of silver in lease (interest payment) they can't pay. If the lease is that much how much is the principal. The Fed is forced to increase the physical supply of money by buying gold. The truth is based on Treasury report on the gold holdings, the Fed has to move the price of physical gold to $467 in order to get a $14,000 monetary credit creation price to back the money supply with 15% monetary gold.

Mountain Top

(01/08/2003; 13:29:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93787)

Zhisheng #93751

At one time, everyone thought that any state, since they entered voluntarily, could leave voluntarily. Such was not the case for the Confederate States of America and it should not come as a surprise to disover that it would not be the case in the European Union either. Money was the cause in the first instance despite claims to the contrary and will be the cause in the second case despite claims to the contrary.

ElGordo

(01/08/2003; 13:45:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93788)

Consumers are tapped out

Goldentrill

(01/08/2003; 13:46:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93789)

A recent Snippit from Jim Sinclair - he asks us to post it around please.

From Goldentrill:

James Sinclair
Guest

Re: Comex delivery of 100 oz gold anyone?
� --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Snippit: (about taking delivery) Taking delivery is a pain in the you know where. However and for the community let me share with you my experience when I was a broker for the Hunt Brother in the early years. It was not the hugh positions that effected the silver market. Many think that because the Hunts bought so many thousands of contract that silver went from slightly above $5 to the $57 high trade. The Hunt Brothers had those contracts on for a very long time. I know because they were my clients. They rolled forward (sold the near due contracts and purchased further out contracts) before first notice day ( noticed for delivery of a future). However, they systematically took small delivery for their children and other Hunt client accounts, all of whom made their own decisions and gave their own instructions. My take on what occurred both from the floor where I had a teram of brokers to my knowledge of the two Hunt Brothers is that they never manipulated anything. They in fact acted in a cooperative nature with the exchange by rolling forward even though they had a right to take delivery if they selected to contracurally. It was the act of small but constant delivery taking that effected the mechanics and cost therefore risk of the short side. It was short covering that took silver, IMO, from the $5 to $7 range into the $50s.
Therefore if the community in a constant, small and non disruptive way for those that can afford it and can handle the hassle took delivery, IMO, they would do more for gold than even they suspect.
I certainly understand this is not for everyone. The purchase of a few one ounce gold coins, newly minted for others would be quite an act of support to gold itself.
For those that cannot take delivery of the 100 oz Comex contract then would you consider posting this answer (maybe spell checked) around the net in as many countries as possible. We the people of gold need to fight back against those Giants that have so unmercifully stolen our Candy. The community can tag em and bag em if they will be of one mind, take action and stop fighting with each other. Sites that attack each other from this minute forward should be abandoned by gold community members because they are Trojan Horse in our midst.
Old Hickory, MMOY & GORDO, you have the power if you are willing to use it. It only takes one let alone three gold community members to get the ball rolling. I ma here for all you guys and gals because I care. But without your cooperation in getting the word around and punishing those Trojan Horses, I can't carry on the entire fight. Let's work together. Of course you should not take delivery because it is too much of a burden. But guys like myself have an absolute obligation to take deliver and take it in a big way. I certainly am in that processand those to whom gold has been good have a similar obligation, IMO. all those htat make their living writing about it and running web sites based on it should be taking delivery on a constant basis. Are they? Hardly, IMO. I am depending you you as acxtive community members to activate the others. We can flatten the bums so let work together.

Cometose

(01/08/2003; 14:06:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93790)

KNOCK , KNOCK ,KNOCKING ON HEAVEN"S DOOR

ALMOST HEAVEN.....

ElGordo

(01/08/2003; 14:08:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93791)

Who would want to short this market?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030108/minerals_asia_gold_1.htmlAsia Gold-Industry looks to China in '03 as reforms open mkt
Wednesday January 8, 3:49 am ET
By Kathleen Kearney

HONG KONG, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Bullion dealers are looking to China in 2003, hoping the big changes in the industry there signal the opening of a new market at a time when high gold prices are dampening offtake in major markets such as India.

ADVERTISEMENTGold buyers formed long queues outside jewellery shops in Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing and Guangzhou last month, when, for the first time in more than 50 years, gold bars were offered for sale to the public at market prices.

The rally in domestic and international gold prices to their highest level in nearly six years appears to have had little impact on demand, and some in Hong Kong are forecasting a doubling of offtake in China this year.

"It is a conservative guess to say China's real demand for gold should be twice the 200 tonnes (that is) the official figure," said Ronald Leung of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers Ltd in Hong Kong.

"If they really open up, I think that 400 tonnes a year is not a problem," Leung said.

The World Gold Council estimates that China's physical gold offtake in 2001 was 205.6 tonnes, down from an estimated 212.5 tonnes the previous year.

About 99 percent of 2001 demand was for jewellery, chiefly because the government previously did not permit individuals to invest in gold.

Using the simplistic equation that many businessmen before him have used, Leung speculates that if just half of China's population of 1.2 billion people bought one gramme of gold this year, offtake would total 600 tonnes.

"We can imagine that the more affluent, urban households will want to invest in as much as 100 to 200 grammes (over the next decade)," Leung said.

Black Blade

(01/08/2003; 14:12:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93792)

What A Beautiful Day!

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
I will go to the gym for my daily routine in a while. Some of the same people I know there have been moaning over their losses in the equities markets and poor performing IRA's and 401K's. A couple of them moan when I come in and say "what a beautiful day". I will say the same again today. Lately a couple of them have been asking me about the Gold and energy markets. The interest is stirring and if reports by the Gold Fields Mineral Services are correct, many more individuals are storming into bullion dealers to relieve them of that old heavy "barbarous relic". The dealer of course must lumber over to the old "dustbin of history" and reach down to grab a few ounces while kicking the corpse of withered old Keynes along the way.

The financial media is giving Gold more positive press these days as the price soars and the US dollar and equities markets tumble. Even CNBC's Ron Insana and Bob Pisani have been toning down their anti-gold rhetoric. In fact Insana has even been giving Gold glowing reviews � what a change of sentiment. Maybe this is Farfel's "Velvet Rope" hypothesis in action (grin). Tomorrow we should get the weekly unemployment report. I don't expect a lot of change as it will come off a holiday shortened week when government offices were closed. We should also see NatGas inventory data as well. Speaking of inventory data, I hear that US oil inventory was up a mere 400,000 bbl. There is what appears to be an Artic blast on the way and that should show up in the NG data in a couple of weeks (there's a week or so of lag time involved here). Meanwhile this is "Confession Season" when companies spin a tale about earnings. So far the news has been glum. Of course it will get worse as companies must boost pension funds and that comes out of profits. Remember people � this is a "Secular Bear Market" and it will last a long time. Some estimate it will last until 2018. I make no predictions on timing myself, but this is in line with historical cycles.

"What a Beautiful (Golden) Day!

- Black Blade

ElGordo

(01/08/2003; 14:16:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93793)

Buddy can you spare a Dinar?

http://www.islam-online.net/english/news/2003-01/08/article08.shtmlThe first Islamic gold dinar was issued in 1992

By Khaled Hanafi, IOL staff

CAIRO, January 8 (IslamOnline) � Malaysia will start using the Islamic gold dinar starting mid 2003 in its foreign trade section with some countries replacing the U.S. dollar in a first step move toward unifying the currency used in commercial dealings between Islamic countries.

The success of this idea, according to several western newspapers, may lead to minimizing the U.S. dollar hegemony as an intermediate tool in commercial dealings in the world.

The idea was adopted by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad who conducted bilateral talks during the year 2002 with several Islamic countries, including Bahrain, Libya, Morocco and Iran, to convince them of using the Islamic dinar as a way of payment in their commercial dealings with Malaysia.

This move is considered from one side a way to recall a currency related to the history of Muslims and their monetary heritage since the time of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him), and from the other side, the ability to find the Islamic alternative to the dollar at a time the calls to boycott all what is labeled as American starting from goods to currency, are intensified.
----

According to the e-dinar limited company based in the Malaysian island of Lapoine, the electronic transactions using the gold Islamic dinar currently reached what is equivalent to 4 tons of gold and that the users are increasing with 10% monthly.

The number of users through the electronic dinar website www.e-dinar.com, launched in 1999 after 7 years of issuing the Islamic gold dinar, reached 600,000 and that number is increasing, the company announced.

Several countries around the world are currently dealing directly with 100,000 Islamic gold dinars and 250,000 silver dirhams issued by the company, hoping that one day it will replace the U.S. dollar in the dealings of the 1.3 billion citizens of the Islamic countries.
_______________
Read the entire article.

balzac

(01/08/2003; 14:32:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93794)

PREPARATION FOR THE DEPRESSION

@SkiSKI , I very much appreciated your posts today

especially the-Prep for the Depression ideas.

I too have thought about this eventuality and perhaps you might add: Cheap souces of protein & other foods.

The purchase of a small farm to raise sheep ,goats ,pigs & chickens.

Feed your family and your neighbours.

Balzac

Boilermaker

(01/08/2003; 14:47:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93795)

Gas Pains

http://www.energypulse.net/sections/offers/popup.cfm?section=50Snip: If temperatures during the remainder of the winter heating season are closer to historical norms, however, given the current undersupply condition in the U.S. market, we would expect the current 195 BCf buffer relative to the �00/�01 comps to begin to diminish rapidly by no later than the Weekly Storage Reports scheduled to be issued in mid to late January.

If this occurs, the pressure on natural gas prices as January progresses could become quite intense � especially given that EIA estimates that industrial demand for natural gas already is more than 19% below the level of industrial demand two years ago (i.e., viz., 5.51 TCf/year currently vs. 6.87 TCf/year in �00). As a result, far less industrial load remains available to decrement this winter than was available to decrement just two years ago.

Even if we are able to make it through this winter without any further intense upward pressure on prices, however, we believe that it is only a matter of a few more months until the mismatch between supply and demand in the North American will become apparent to all concerned.

By next fall, therefore, we expect that the forward delivery price curve to be far higher than current levels even if the remainder of this winter is unusually mild.

Comment:
Here's another article by Andrew Wiessman that confirms all that's being brought here by BB and others. Anyone exposed to NG prices and availability should read it. Farmers in particular should contract for their nitrogen fertilizer now or risk a shortage caused by fertilizer producers that sell their NG supply contracts to the open market and make more money by shutting down their nitrogen fertilizer plants.
This forces a lot of farmers in my region to plant beans instead of corn. Other NG using industries such as plastics may also sell their contracted NG in the open market for more profit than they can realize by using it. This all forces more imports of products with high NG input and further exacerbates the BOP problem.

Boilermaker

Henri

(01/08/2003; 14:52:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93796)

Palladium on a screaming tear

From open to close in NY up from 232 to close at 257 up $25

10%!!!!! in one day

Belgian

(01/08/2003; 15:16:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93797)

@ Zhisheng

Excellent question of yours Sir, but I ignore the answer. I'll do my best to investigate this matter and let you know.
But what happened today might give a lead : Germany is forced to cut back on its budget deficit an raise taxes or risk a penalty ! This is in sharp contrast with (US) helicopter policies. Remember that Welteke suggested several times to sell some of Germany's national Gold-exchange reserves (not ECB's reserves). W'll see if this happens after sept. 2004 and if this Gold goes to the ECB or BIS for more euro ?

Maybe the reverse might be true : Surplusses might be exchanged for Gold flowing from the ECB to the national vaults (Free Goldmarket). Now any country that should wish to secede should turn in all its euro in return for the delivered Gold ??? But on what currency does this country falls back again, afterwards ? Think such a move is highly improbable.

I speculate on a come back of A/FOA after POG has gapped (substantial runaway-gap) and evidence that LBMA - papergold contract market is running into trouble(s).
A/FOA is certainly awaiting the "crisis" that will break the bond between Gold and Oil, wich is the start of a dramatic change. The break up of the world dollar-currency system (currency replacement). Then there will be a mass run of CBs into Gold AT ANY PRICE !

This morning, Hugh Hendry and TA/TI-expert Chris Locke remained positive on Gold (and euro plus rand), in tandem.
Wave v up, probably starting now, is usually the strongest (most explosive) one.
Let us not forget that a lot of currencies are locked together to the dollar. Reinforcing the flight into Gold.
The paper Gold Market today could completely destroy the Physical market by shutting down all possible trading as the currencies (dollar-derivatives) are devalued by Gold in a massive upheavel !!!

Watch the interest rates as history has shown that when paper-assets (bonds-stocks-currencies) start to be revalued downward by Gold (POG up)...the Physical supply of Gold dries up ! No wonder that IRs MUST be kept down. H.H. is still speculating on rising bonds = imvho a very dangerous bet he's making there.

On tele there was a very informative documentary of 30 years M.E. history. I made a very silent conclusion for myself that *Gold*, rather than weaponary, will one day soon, play a tremendous role in the ME - Western relationships.
Those 30 past years of history overthere are about OIL and nothing else but OIL ! The next 30 years will definitely be very different from the past. OIL or the BIS will bid for GOLD. Notice the recent WGC-chart of oil+gold !

ElGordo

(01/08/2003; 15:40:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93798)

Deficit soars

New York, Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's plan to cut taxes over the next decade and a possible war against Iraq will cause the budget deficit to balloon to a record $300 billion this year, Merrill Lynch & Co. economists said.

Merrill, the U.S. biggest securities firm by capital, raised its budget deficit estimate from $225 billion after Bush yesterday proposed a $670 billion plan to boost the economy by cutting personal taxes, giving businesses more incentive to invest, and eliminating taxes on stock dividends. The U.S. recorded a budget deficit of $290 billion in 1992.

``With the increased spending and with the economy growing below potential the deficit will soar,'' said Kathleen Bostjancic, senior economist at Merrill Lynch.

Bush announced his plan after the U.S. economy slowed during the fourth quarter. The U.S. expanded at an average 1.5 percent annualized rate in last three months of the year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Third quarter U.S. growth was 4 percent, the government reported.

The economy will probably expand at a 2.7 percent pace this year and at a 3.6 percent rate in 2004, when the budget deficit should fall to $250 billion, Bostjancic said.

The Congressional Budget Office, which uses actual spending approved by Congress, in August forecast a $145 billion deficit for the current year, which began Oct. 1. Last year, the U.S. posted a $159 billion deficit.

Moody's Investors Service previously forecast the deficit at about $300 billion, and Barclay's Capital Inc. yesterday said the shortfall may reach $350 billion.

Black Blade

(01/08/2003; 15:47:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93799)

The Bush "Stimulus" Plan

http://money.cnn.com/news/specials/bush_plan/
There are three reports on "The Proposal" at the link. Today the prez signed the unemployment bill just after the House went along with the Senate. Meanwhile this "Confession Season" looks downright Butt Ugly as warnings are flooding the airwaves. We should expect much of the same over the next couple of weeks plus a lot of spin from the primates on Wall Street and the usual media trolls. Looks like a lot of "entertainment" is on tap as the Lemmings run to and fro in a glorious state of confusion and angst. "What a Beautiful (Golden) Day"

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!

White Hills

(01/08/2003; 15:50:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93800)

Testing

White Hills

CoBra(too)

(01/08/2003; 16:13:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93801)

Sorry to have tried to answer a question ... for Belgian

@ Belgian and Zisheng - shouldn't have interfered at all.

As it becomes most clear that only Belgium has the correct answers on gold and any other topics - as it seems.
... Won't argue against my own beliefs ... only against autocracy ...

Austria has already suffered the consequences of trying out new policies with the fiends of democracy ... and survived somehow - the Belgians have not yet met their ultimate foe.

OK, Mr. Belgian ignores any answer - as his chancellor Michel has done - though he'll think about and will do his best to investigate and come up with one.

... As I feel this answer - or better no answer was directed at me - and the rest was a repetitive A/FOA, which I may subscribe to also, I'll better take "Another" sabbitcal ...

Keep well - and more so - in a nutshell - GO GOLD -cb2

White Hills

(01/08/2003; 16:23:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93802)

Antitrust Lawsuit by Blanchard & Co. against Barrick Gold, others

Just received notice form Blanchard that 0n December 18, 2002 they filed an antitrust lawsuit against Barrick Gold Corp., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and other, as yet not named, bullion banks, accusing them of unlawfully combining to manipulate the price of gold at the expense of Blanchards clients. Blanchard is paying the costs of the suit. According to Blanchard" Barrick has made over $2 Billion from its short sales of gold, inherently high-risk speculations that have been profitable in every one of the last 59 quarters. The same type of accounting maze that hid Enron's debts has made it possible for Barrick to manipulate the price of gold without the checks and balances that come from public scrutiny." A copy of the Complaint for Injunctive Relief/ filed in the United States District Court, Eastern District of Louisiana can be obvtained by contacting Blanchard. Is this the same company that some time ago sent me letters recommending that I sell my Gold? And, JPM has said that they have no exposure in the Gold Market. Even if they had a net zero position they still could have a tremendous liability because of the short position . Where would they find the Gold? Maybe they figure it will all settle in Dollars as predicted on this Forum. Bad news from Alcoa, a basic industry, showing the real weakness in this economy. As previously stated on this Forum, " Industry is always destroyed at the point
of MONEY CREATION" And I might add CREDIT AND PAPER GOLD CREDIT. IMO the USA has to do everything possible to save the dollar. What can they do? Probabily the most radical things you can think of to do. As to the cost of war. I suggest that having been attacked we are at war and should exact the cost of that war from Countries that we are forced to fight for our freedom. and safety. White Hills

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 16:48:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93803)

Gold volatility

Big 2, 3, 5 and more dollar swing in spot in the last week or so. Since the attack of 354?

Check today's 3-day spot shot at Kitco. I'm not TA Joe but big short covering and large selling spurts. So I wonder when does any sort of equlibrium begin to settle in? I suppose in theory when demand of gold, be it paper or physical or a facsimile of either, meets supply of gold.

So when does this occur?

Will and when does gold roll on by 354/355 and sail towards $400? I like mid-end Jan. as we approach UN 'Declare Day'.
There will be one more 'screw-up' by that date lifting gold another notch.

Thoughts?

ElGordo

(01/08/2003; 16:49:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93804)

German economy on the "precipice"

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1039524310288&p=1012571727088FT snippets:
_____________

Germany was on Wednesday given four months to agree measures to curb its "excessive budget deficit", as the European Commission launched a strong attack on the budget plans of the eurozone's three biggest economies.

Pedro Solbes, European Union monetary affairs commissioner, warned that Germany and France could breach the EU's stability and growth pact in 2003 and Italy could break the rules in 2004 by running up deficits of over 3 per cent of gross domestic product.

The Commission, the policeman of European Union rules on budget guidelines drawn up to protect the euro, was giving its assessment of the countries' medium-term budget plans.

Mr Solbes urged Germany, France and Italy to take urgent measures to tackle their deficits, and accused finance ministries of basing their plans on over-optimistic growth forecasts.

But the Commission's assessment of Germany's economic plight reflects Mr Solbes's growing fears that the country may be on an economic precipice.

----------------------------

Hong Kong's peg to the dollar faces speculative attack if the city does not bring its spiralling budget deficit under control, the territory's chief executive warned on Wednesday.

Describing Hong Kong's economic situation as the most "severe and unprecedented in decades", Tung Chee-hwa said it was essential to redress the imbalances in public finances.

"If the problem is not solved as soon as possible, Hong Kong risks being exposed to heightened speculation, which may trigger outflows of capital, rising interest rates, turmoil in the financial markets leading ultimately to possible attacks on our linked exchange rate system."

Mr Tung pledged to reduce his salary and that of top officials by 10 per cent and to cut the civil service by 10 per cent over the next four years.

Hong Kong's budget deficit grew to HK$70.8bn ($9bn), more than 5 per cent of gross domestic product, in the first eight months of the fiscal year to March 2003 - nearly 60 per cent higher than the government's forecast for the entire year.

--------------------------

Venezuela will be forced to default on payments due to state oil company bondholders or on its domestic debt with private banks in the next few weeks if the government is unable to restart crippled oil production, bankers and oil industry officials said on Wednesday.

A five-week-old strike by opposition-aligned workers at Petr--leos de Venezuela (PDVSA), who are pressuring President Hugo Ch�vez into resigning or calling early elections, has cut daily output from 3.1m barrels to about 300,000 barrels.

Sierra Madre

(01/08/2003; 16:49:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93805)

White Hills, you sound very confused

You wrote:
"As to the cost of war. I suggest that having been attacked we are at war and should exact the cost of that war from Countries that we are forced to fight for our freedom. and safety. White Hills"

It is not at all clear WHO attacked the U.S. - I suppose you refer to the 911 tragic incident. The whole handling of the incident stinks to high heaven with suppression of the facts and crass manipulation of public opinion.

First it was get Osama. Osama is not in the news anymore.

Now, it's Iraq because of WMD. You buy that as a reason to go to war against Iraq? If you do, then, as the saying goes, "I have a bridge to sell to you - cheap."

You are certainly welcome to post here; but be aware that you are posting for the most sophisticated bunch of thinkers on the Internet.

No one knows everything; ignorance is not a crime. Admitting ignorance is the first step to wisdom. You can learn a lot here by listening and asking questions.

Get a hold of your emotions and think before you shoot your mouth off about a justified war against Iraq, or any other nation that has not been fully proven to have committed an act of war against the U.S.

Otherwise, you are approving the murder of innocent people.

Sierra

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 16:54:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93806)

One other thing........

Was talking to a work colleague today who has lost a mitt-ful in the tech flame-out. Lost 90% from $300,000 to $30,000.

Guy looks like hell warmed over.

He doesn't have the gold fever by any shot but he had this to mumble today, "Maybe we need a monster war to back up this perverted planet a 100 years or so."

Thoughts?

Bulldog

(01/08/2003; 16:56:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93807)

Wow!

What a nice move in gold today. How about Platinum up about 10%. I had a bit extra money the other day and I said to my wife, I should buy a platinum contract. Instead I pre-paid some insurance and held a little back to cushion the increase that is coming in car insurance.

I was proselytizing gold today to a lawyer friend over lunch, an ongoing dialogue for the last 10 years. I guess over time, you eventually become a guru (Lotta money lost on gold stocks in the interim). He is a securities lawyer and still does not relate to physical, and never will.

Some of the good Knights are quite offensive recently and I wonder if that is a "rush" from the recent gold run-up?
Given the level of intelligence shared on this forum, surely we can state our responses to others with respect without trying to crush the other.

We have spent a long time since $800 gold to get back to this point where Sinclair says the shorts get wiped out. My opinion versus others here is not really worth much; however, even Pooh with very little brain knows that gold is going to the moon. I have been very patient for these many years to recoup what I once had on paper. The wonderful thing is that I have real wealth that no one knows I have. In this day of diminishing personal freedoms
in the name of homeland security, its nice to have your gold, guns and grub--get you some and a good day to you Ari

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 16:56:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93808)

Sierra Madre

Just saw you between my posts.

Quick question, any way of commenting further about your acquaintanceship w/ Mr. Lipps without blowing your cover?

HOOSIER GOLDBUG

(01/08/2003; 17:01:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93809)

Reason For Iraq War!

Mr. Sierra Madre,
Is eleven years of post Gulf War and UN violations by IRAQ a good enough reason to go to war????????
Get real! The war should have started ten years ago or better yet should have never stopped during the GULF WAR until we burned BAGDAD and gained control of the oil!
We will pick up Bin Laden as soon as we have defeated IRAQ and established our position in the MIDDLE EAST! With our level of technology and clandestine operations, there is no possible way of not knowing where he is presently.

Aristotle

(01/08/2003; 17:04:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93810)

A good day to you, too, Bulldog

Gold. You know the routine... --- Ari

Bulldog

(01/08/2003; 17:09:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93811)

Sierra

your post to WH broke me up because I had a similar message (a little softer maybe) advising him to go back in time on this forum and catch up.
I appreciate your comments from another who borders the "great" U.S.A.
Where are the statesmen of the world? Can no one stand up to the U.S.?
In Canada, our Senate recommended that we bring our peacekeeping troups home for at least two years so we can equip and train them properly. I would dearly love that to happen. Even though the British and the U.S. in the past have advised the world that they knew exactly where Iraq WMD were, after all this time looking, nothing has turned up. God bless N. Korea for sticking the nuclear issue up Dubya's nose. I doubt if the Americans want to fight wars on all fronts.

Aristotle

(01/08/2003; 17:13:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93812)

Hoosier Goldbug, Right on!!!

And after that, we're gonna go kick it up a notch and take over Mars! Ain't no laws (of physics) strong enough or interplanetary space wide enough gonna stand between us and our claim to whatever we want!!

Note to self: Do I dare post this at the risk of my point being lost due to the limited nature of this method of communication?

Punt.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 17:13:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93813)

Just figured out the time horizons!!

Catchy subject line I hope.

I hope to hear from gold advocates with their 'time horizon' theories as well.

I have taken a backward looking approach to the price of gold. In 50 years this planet will be in severe trouble; I really don't think that is debatable. Too many people with a shortage of water, maybe air, too much garbage, shortage of oil and gas and gold and minerals and everything PHYSICAL.

Oil and gas is expected to peak in 2006/2008. Lets stretch this to 10-15 years out. It's going to be interesting which commodity, looking forwards peaks out first, oil or water. Interesting question, yes?

So lets say that by 2010, visibility is clearer, looks really, REALLY bad. Long term fundamentals are clear, crystal clear to me at least.

So lets look at paper, the US debt and its deficit is looking bad, worse by the day. This will catch fire by spontaneous combustion sooner or later, guess date; 2005, 2008, 2010, who cares? It's going to happen. Do you want a 3 year head start, a 5 year head start or a 10 year head start???

Think hard. Hmmmmmm?

If I start to liquidate assets of paper worth today and begin to accumualte assets of PHYSICAL worth today I will avoid the IMMINENT liquation. Time horizon is X.

Is that statement not becoming more and more obvious by each ticking second.

Top down thinking, get you some.

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 17:21:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93814)

Ari

Please do not kid around the subject of Mars.

There are vast quantities of oil there. There is rumor of a futures exchange opening for this purpose.

goldenboy

(01/08/2003; 17:24:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93815)

@Hoosier Goldbug If it is OK to Take Their Oil

Then i Guess it is ok for them to take your(our) gold.
You either have principles or you do not. The founding fathers had them and wanted to avoid fiat, foreign wars, and statism.
The Kennedys wanted to stop the madness, King too, I guess they died for nothing.
Gold and principles; Lets all get more.

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 17:25:59 MDT - Msg ID: 93816)

Don't look now (7:25 eastern) but gold has popped to resistance level !!!!!!!

....354.40.

What's our record here on spot over night, around 355.60/355.80?

Let's see 358 shall we !!!!!

Where's that old hoser goldbug with the:

YEEEEEEEEHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!!!!!

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 17:31:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93817)

Had a nasty 'male ' thought for a moment...

....remember the opening of 'Cool Hand Luke' (I think I'm remembering the correct movie.

The chain gang is rolling past the young lady who is washing her car in the hot, hot summer sun. The lady is not overly dressed and she was scrubing the windshield with vigour.

The boys were yelling "POP..BABY..POP".

Boy 'oh Boy do I want to see "POP....BABY..POP" !!

(Hope this is not out of line, please inform)

HOOSIER GOLDBUG

(01/08/2003; 18:00:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93818)

PRINCIPLES????????????

If I let/promote/train terrorists in my country, you have every right to take my gold and my life!
If I kill innocent KURDS and commit other atrocities against any kind, group of mankind, you have every right to take my gold and my life!
If I violate UN sanctions and continue to shoot at pilots from whatever country in the no-fly zone, you have every right to take my gold and my life!
If I offer rewards for human suicide bombers, you have every life to take my gold and my life!
If I govern my country, leaving the majority in poverty, sickness, malnutrition, etc., you have every right to take my gold and my life!
DO I NEED TO CONTINUE!
THAT'S WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT!
If you think you have principles, I do not want any!
Principles????????????????????????????????
I will not be intimidated by any person at this forum! Maybe the newbies here at the forum will be intimidated, but not I.

Mr. Bill

(01/08/2003; 18:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93819)

@HOOSIER GOLDBUG msg#: 93809

"Is eleven years of post Gulf War and UN violations by IRAQ a good enough reason to go to war????????"

Have you even the tiniest clue as to what that war was about and why it was stopped? UN violations? We definitely have to nuke the Jews for this.

"With our level of technology and clandestine operations, there is no possible way of not knowing where he is presently."

Truer words were never spoken. But do you have a clue as to why?

HOOSIER, go back to your TV.

Golden Bear

(01/08/2003; 18:19:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93820)

HOOSIER GOLDBUG (msg#: 93818)

Just for you Sir, from the Rense website...
-----------------------------------------------
Brigadier General Says Israel
Is The Problem, Not Iraq
By James J. David Retired Brigadier General
From RePortersNoteBook.com
1-7-3

Note - James J. David is a retired Brigadier General and a
graduate of the U.S. Army's Command and General Staff College, and the National Security Course,
National Defense University, Washington, DC. He served as a Company Commander with the 101st
Airborne Division in the Republic of Vietnam in 1969 and 1970 and also served nearly 3 years of
Army active duty in and around the Middle East from 1967-1969.

Question: Which country alone in the Middle East has nuclear weapons? Answer: Israel.

Q: Which country in the Middle East refuses to sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and bars
international inspections? Answer: Israel.

Q: Which country in the Middle East seized the sovereign territory of other nations by military force
and continues to occupy it in defiance of United Nations Security Council resolutions? Answer: Israel.

Q: Which country in the Middle East routinely violates the international borders of another sovereign
state with warplanes and artillery and naval gunfire? Answer: Israel.

Q: What American ally in the Middle East has for years sent assassins into other countries to kill its
political enemies (a practice sometimes called exporting terrorism)? Answer: Israel.

Q: In which country in the Middle East have high-ranking military officers admitted publicly that
unarmed prisoners of war were executed? Answer: Israel.

Q: What country in the Middle East refuses to prosecute its soldiers who have acknowledged
executing prisoners of war? Answer: Israel.

Q: What country in the Middle East created 762,000 refugees and refuses to allow them to return to
their homes, farms and businesses? Answer: Israel.

Q: What country in the Middle East refuses to pay compensation to people whose land, bank
accounts and businesses it confiscated? Answer: Israel.

Q: In what country in the Middle East was a high-ranking United Nations diplomat assassinated?
Answer: Israel.

Q: In what country in the Middle East did the man who ordered the assassination of a high-ranking
U.N. diplomat become prime minister? Answer: Israel.

Q: What country in the Middle East blew up an American diplomatic facility in Egypt and attacked a
U.S. ship, the USS Liberty, in international waters, killing 34 and wounding 171 American sailors?
Answer: Israel.

Q: What country in the Middle East employed a spy, Jonathan Pollard, to steal classified documents
and then gave some of them to the Soviet Union? Answer: Israel.

Q: What country at first denied any official connection to Pollard, then voted to make him a citizen
and has continuously demanded that the American president grant Pollard a full pardon? Answer:
Israel.

Q. What Middle East country allows American Jewish murderers to flee to its country to escape
punishment in the United States and refuses to extradite them once in their custody? Answer: Israel

Q. What Middle East country preaches against hate yet builds a shrine and a memorial for a
murderer who killed 29 Palestinians while they prayed in their Mosque. Answer: Israel

Q: What country on Planet Earth has the second most powerful lobby in the United States, according
to a recent Fortune magazine survey of Washington insiders? Answer: Israel.

Q. Which country in the Middle East deliberately targeted a U.N. Refugee Camp in Qana, Lebanon
and killed 103 innocent men, women, and especially children? Answer: Israel

Q: Which country in the Middle East is in defiance of 69 United Nations Security Council resolutions
and has been protected from 29 more by U.S. vetoes? Answer: Israel.

Q. Which country in the Middle East receives more than one- third of all U.S. aid yet is the 16th
richest country in the world? Answer: Israel

Q. Which country in the Middle East receives U.S. weapons for free and then sells the technology to
the Republic of China even at the objections of the U.S.? Answer: Israel

Q. Which country in the Middle East routinely insults the American people by having its Prime
Minister address the United States Congress and lecturing them like children on why they have no
right to reduce foreign aid? Answer: Israel

Q. Which country in the Middle East had its Prime Minister announce to his staff not to worry about
what the United States says because "We control America?" Answer: Israel

Q. What country in the Middle East was cited by Amnesty International for demolishing more than
4000 innocent Palestinian homes as a means of ethnic cleansing. Answer: Israel

Q. Which country in the Middle East has just recently used a weapon of mass destruction, a one-ton
smart bomb, dropping it in the center of a highly populated area killing 15 civilians including 9
children? Answer: Israel

Q. Which country in the Middle East routinely kills young Palestinian children for no reason other
than throwing stones at armored vehicles, bulldozers, or tanks? Answer: Israel

Q. Which country in the Middle East signed the Oslo Accords promising to halt any new Jewish
Settlement construction, but instead, has built more than 270 new settlements since the signing?
Answer: Israel

Q. Which country in the Middle East has assassinated more than 100 political officials of its opponent
in the last 2 years while killing hundreds of civilians in the process, including dozens of children?
Answer: Israel

Q.. Which country in the Middle East regularly violates the Geneva Convention by imposing collective
punishment on entire towns, villages, and camps, for the acts of a few, and even goes as far as
demolishing entire villages while people are still in their homes? Answer: Israel

Q: What country in the Middle East is the United States threatening to attack because of fear that it
may be a threat to us and to our allies? Answer: Iraq

HOOSIER GOLDBUG

(01/08/2003; 18:22:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93821)

REALITY!

Everybody is broke! Consumer, busines, and government! The truth is none of you want to live very long in a world with $30.00 or $40.00 or $50.00, or $60.00 or $70.00 or $80.00 or $90.00 or $100.00 a barrel oil! Let's face reality! It is all about oil! The truth is as long as the conflict is not here, those terrorists can do what they want, when they want, to whomever they want! You all need Bush to gain control of that oil, because that will secure your continued safety here in this country and on this forum from terrorists or your next door neighbor! You want this economy to improve! In order to improve, we need cheap oil.
Gold---- I'm getting some, every week!
Principles- I'm not getting any here at this forum!
Back to my TV???????????????
What is a TV??????
I don't own a TV!!!!!!!

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 18:27:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93822)

Hossier Goldbug

I don't think you are far from the TRUTH.

knotakare

(01/08/2003; 18:30:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93823)

The "new" totalitarian american

it's the shop till ya drop mentality, that mother's milk of america called consumerism. This consumerism must be defended against all enemies, both foreign and domestic. If we must give up our liberties, and embrace promises of totalitarian politicians to "retain our culture", so be it. That is the thinking of many in our once great land.

I for one will try to stand up to US War Empire, because I value living in freedom much more than a trip to Ole Navy. I'll sell my SUV and walk, before I support wars of expropriation and crimes against humanity. This is what it is, and all of the fabricated excuses do not change the facts.

mikal

(01/08/2003; 18:32:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93824)

Re: Hosser

You don't own a tv? Reading your post is like WATCHING tv! If oil is so important, then I guess Israeli occupation and water/land grabs is not. Nor the military-industrial complex and the suppresion of alternative energy and scientists.

Mr. Bill

(01/08/2003; 18:42:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93825)

@HOOSIER GOLDBUG msg#: 93821

SNIP
Back to my TV???????????????
What is a TV??????
I don't own a TV!!!!!!!
ENDSNIP

It is worse than I thought. First step, buy a TV. Then spend 30 to 40 hours a week getting up to speed. Once we have established a control situation, then we can talk. At least we will know where you are at. Right now, it could be that you are where no man has gone before.

mikal

(01/08/2003; 18:44:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93826)

Re: Oil costs

What happens if a country ignores basic common sense by exploiting overseas producing countries and populations without adequate remedy, redress or payment? And ignores common sense maintenance of domestic oil and gas wells, refineries and pipelines. And prevents infrastructure improvements in transmssion lines, pipelines, ports, etc.?

Golden Bear

(01/08/2003; 18:45:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93827)

Sierra Madre (msg#: 93805)

"You are certainly welcome to post here; but be aware that you are posting for the most sophisticated bunch of thinkers on the Internet."

Well said as always Sir Sierra, your voice of reason a salve against the constant sound of beating war drums and dross pounding on our senses.

And what makes sophisticated thinkers, is their ability to listen, and sift through the dross to find nuggets of gold to add to their personal store of knowledge...

Regards,

GB.

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 18:46:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93828)

Interesting debate

At FACE VALUE there seems as much a problem with Israel as there is with the 'Arab' ME.

Perhaps there is no alternative at this juncture, given the most vigorous discussions, than to 'prove' who is correct?

As placid and as unemotional as it sounds, let gold win.

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 18:48:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93829)

Golden Bear

You are on a roll this evening; anything from the heart to add?

Golden Bear

(01/08/2003; 18:54:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93830)

silvercollector (msg#: 93829)

If that was an attempt at sarcasm, it was pretty poor sir, if not, please elaborate...

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 18:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93831)

mikal

Another Israeli concern. The forum echos the surveys recently published concerning anti-imperialism.

I am afraid war will define the next year and I am afraid the next 10 years will define the future of this fragile planet.

White Hills

(01/08/2003; 18:56:09 MDT - Msg ID: 93832)

Sierra Madre msg# 93805

I wrote: As to the cost of war. I suggest that having been attacked we are at war and should exact exact the cost of that war from Countries that we are forced to fight for our freedom and safety. Where have you found in that statement the name of Osama or the name of Iraq or for that matter anything about justified war against Iraq? You assume all of this meaning which certainly sounds like you are the one who is confused. So I will say it again a little more clearly so there would be any doubt about what I mean. ANY COUNTRY THAT WE ARE FORCED TO FIGHT FOR OUR FREEDOM AND SAFETY WE SHOULD EXACT THE COST OF THAT WAR FROM THOSE COUNTRIES. AS TO WHO THAT REFERS TO WILL BE A DECISION OF USA AND ITS PEOPLE. AS TO BEING WELCOME AT THIS FORUM I HAVE POSTED HERE LONG BEFORE YOU ARRIVED. WHY DO YOU HAVE SUCH A CHIP ON YOUR SHOULDER? APOLOGY TO THE FORUM FOR HAVING STIRRED UP POLITICS INTO THE FORUM I REALLY WAS MOSTLY INTERESTED IN ANY COMMENT ABOUT THE BARRICK GOLD PART OF THE POST . I AM WELL AWARE OF THE CALIBRE OF POSTERS ON THIS FORUM BUT I DON'T EVER RECALL THAT ANY OF THEM TOOTS HIS HORN QUITE AS LOUD AS YOU DO. White Hills

Golden Bear

(01/08/2003; 19:01:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93834)

HOOSIER GOLDBUG (msg#: 93833)

Then why waste so much time at this forum, instead of searching for greener pastures to stimulate you to your liking?

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 19:05:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93835)

Golden Bear

Major apologies if taken incorrectly.

Your post 93820 just got emailed to a couple dozen people questioning the one-sided imbalance of the war.

Your post leads credence to the theory that we (the world) is at a stand still. Is there ANYTHING that is not blown out of proportion, distorted, a myth or a lie anymore?

Sorrily the world is doomed. I hate that word, I promised my mother I was not a 'doomsayer'. I tell her that I am not, I tell her that I am a realist.

Is the world doomed?

sc

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 19:09:30 MDT - Msg ID: 93836)

Hossier !!

There is INSIDE information here, BELIEVE IT !!

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 19:16:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93837)

Hope this breaks the mood a bit....

I said to the wife, "...the forum is hot tonight..."

She said, "....the ladies are glued to the 'bachelorette' tonight.."

Oh well......

Golden Bear

(01/08/2003; 19:22:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93838)

silvercollector (msg#: 93835)

Sir sc,

from my relatively short 36 years on this planet, I have come to the conclusion that man in general does not wish to learn, until he suffers pain. In a collective sense, that means war and devastation on a grand scale and suffered by all, not isolated to faraway places that we cannot feel personally.

The US media in particular is biased and sold out to the zionist lobby and the military/oil/industrial complex, making it relatively simple to brainwash the American people with whatever it takes to sustain their unsustainable lifestyles. They feel that there is no cost to overindulgent lifestyles (I call it the cafe latte lifestyle). It is the same here in Oz. The current generation has not felt pain or hardship, but it is coming...

In summary, yes, there is a lot of pain coming, but hopefully, it will be what shakes humanity to its core, for it will be what makes man feel from the heart as you suggest - then he will not be so willing to send others' sons and daughters to be slaughtered...

Cheers.

a nation of one

(01/08/2003; 19:29:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93839)

Re: Golden Bear (01/08/03; 19:22:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 93838)

For a mere 36 that seems like a lot to have learned. I guess there is hope after all.

makcumka

(01/08/2003; 19:31:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93840)

@ Ski

Thanks for the historical info on the surviving economies in the time of depression.

Somewhere (I cannot recall the source) I learned that during the economic slump the government increased federal funding of construction projects in this and other countries. A lot of great things were built to prop up the economy by creating more jobs and pumping money into the economy. I can think of the Hoover Dam (1931-35), the interstate highway system (after WW2), massive construction efforts in Japan, culminating in the enormous bridge that took, i think, 10 years to build. In the last few years I saw a substantial increase in government spending on infrastructure and water treatment facilities, which are the most expensive and time consuming projects. Granted, the private money is leaving the market, which will ultimately lead to bankruptcy or diversification of the "building" contractors, and after Enron the power market has virtually shut down. There is, however, plenty of work on the books, from what I can see. Any thoughts or historical backup that you might provide?

makcumka

a nation of one

(01/08/2003; 19:31:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93841)

Is the world doomed?

Only from one moment to the next.

silvercollector

(01/08/2003; 19:34:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93842)

Golden Bear

Your 36 years have been productive.

There unfortunately comes a time when infatuation must be purged. We may debate the pros and cons, the 'Jew/Arab' situatation, the 'why' forever without resolve.

The hype, the hysteria, the confusion and the hatred has reached it's non-alternative cusp.

The sabre-rattling will cease, muskets will be drawn and war will be declared. It is unfortunately our destiny.

If not Jan. 27th, it is cast in stone.

Sorry for the brazen TRUTH.

sector

(01/08/2003; 19:35:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93843)

Britain urges US to delay war until autumn

By Anton La Guardia and George Jones(Filed: 09/01/2003)

Britain is pressing for war against Iraq to be delayed for several months, possibly until the autumn, to give weapons inspectors more time to provide clear evidence of new violations by Saddam Hussein.

British officials know that the real decision will be taken by Bush

Ministers and senior officials believe that there is no clear legal case for military action despite the build-up of American and British forces in the Gulf.

Senior diplomats have told the Government that there is a good chance of securing United Nations Security Council approval for military action later in the year if Saddam can be shown unambiguously to be defying the disarmament conditions set out in resolution 1441.

"The Prime Minister has made it clear that, unless there is a smoking gun, the inspectors have to be given time to keep searching," a senior Whitehall source said.

The uncertainty at the heart of the Government has resulted in ministers blowing hot and cold over the prospects for early military action.

The tensions were highlighted on Tuesday when Geoff Hoon, the Defence Secretary, publicly rebuked Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, for playing down the chances of war.

In the Commons yesterday Tony Blair denied that the Cabinet was split or that he was engaging in "dangerous brinkmanship" with Saddam over Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.

But he was left in no doubt of growing opposition among Labour MPs to joining an American-led attack without convincing proof that Saddam had defied UN demands to dismantle his nuclear, chemical and biological programmes.

The exchanges showed that the Prime Minister could face a major revolt if he went to war without UN backing.

As the tempo of military preparations accelerates, British diplomats say they can win UN support for war only if the inspectors can corner Saddam, either by finding banned weapons and components or by forcing him to deny access to sites or to officials.

"Nobody familiar with the inspections process expects them to come up with the goods in a matter of weeks," a senior British official said.

"There is an assumption that there will be a campaign before the summer because of the heat. The autumn would be just as sensible a time and in the meanwhile Saddam would be thoroughly constrained by the inspectors."

Although the Government has sent a powerful naval force to the region and called up reservists, there has been a significant softening of Whitehall's warlike rhetoric.

Mr Straw said he thought the prospects of war were roughly 60:40 against. No 10 backed Mr Straw in downgrading the importance of the inspectors' first full report to the Security Council on Jan 27.

Officials said the date was "not a deadline"; the inspectors should be given "time and space" to carry out their work. They also insisted that an indefinite game of "cat and mouse" was not acceptable.

Hans Blix, the chief weapons inspector, is expected to tell the Security Council that Iraq is co-operating in terms of procedure, but that he needs time to investigate the apparent omissions in the latest declaration of its weapons programmes.

Hard-liners in Washington see Iraq's claim that it has no banned weapons as enough justification for action.

British officials know that the real decision about the war will be taken by President George W Bush. Powerful voices in Washington argue that prevarication would risk allowing another crisis to divert the effort against Iraq and afford Saddam a symbolic victory.

British officials hope that London's reservations and Mr Blair's growing problems in the Labour Party will help to tip the balance in the Bush administration in favour of delay.

But they accept that Britain will go along with an American-led war in almost all circumstances, including a conflict in the spring if Washington is determined to launch an early campaign.

The first Prime Minister's Questions of the year, held at noon instead of 3pm under Commons reforms, was dominated by Iraq.

Iain Duncan Smith, the Tory leader, highlighting the spat between Mr Hoon and Mr Straw, warned Mr Blair that he could not win public backing for a war if he could not convince his Cabinet and if troops were only "half-prepared for war".
++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The salient missing fact here is the Turkey thingy. See...the Turks have a new leader who says in a poem "Our minaret's are bayonets...". Turkey has yet to allow 80,000 "Coalition" troupes to troop around on their land and launch a war against Muslims. Pretty gauche of them after all that IMF paper we dropped on them...or did we? Maybe next month.

Anyway the whole Iraq war issue has run up against a brick wall:

General Tommy Franks can't find enough Turkish donkeys for our Special Forces guys to ride. It's the old logistics bugbear. Afghanistan was ONE thing but THIS is Northern Iraq! You have to have a tonne of DONKEYS to fight Saddam. Our guys will get smashed up there without the ability to "Float like a butterfly [On the donkeys] and sting like a bee [With the latest model Bushmaster .223 rifle].

So Britain has seen the light and called for a delay in the invasion until Autumn--the donkey rutting season. They can be more easily handled with the Pentagon's new chemical female pheromones specially made for the little brutes. Our defense tax dollars hard at work.

Attack Saddam on Labor Day! Prepare to Mount UP dudes!

Malfleur

(01/08/2003; 19:36:30 MDT - Msg ID: 93844)

China Gold Market

Shanghai. Thursday morning. For the information of the board, the nation-wide weekly mainland Chinese newspaper, Global Times, devoted an entire page of yesterday's edition to two stories on gold, one dealing with USA investors interest in the metal and the other on buying trends in Japan. These were coupled with a shorter article on the recent price history of the metal, mentioning the 1980s peak of US850 per oz.

Keep in mind that all newspapers are government owned here and that the decision to publish positive articles on this subject have a political purpose.

Meanwhile, a shovel can be bought for US$0.70 and a counterfeit DVD for less than a buck. Other prices on request.

Prometheus

(01/08/2003; 19:51:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93845)

Christian

Thanks for your enlightening posts. The best compliment I can pay someone is to tell them that they made me think.
I'm sorry; but could I ask you what (who) is DTC?

Thanks a bunch.

P

Genoo

(01/08/2003; 19:53:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93846)

$355 spot breached and held at weeks end...psychologically and remember that everything begins as as idea and that ideas tend to be realized.

Let's face it..sometimes us neurotics tend to ruminate about specific numbers excessively when the writing is carved on the wall.

The man says, and he's hot eh, see #93311 and #93604.....that gold is out of the box.

spot is already out say I...

and what kind of fool would through himself in front of this speeding locomotive by shorting it you ask..only one who has his financial life to lose if it cannot be stopped..

and I'll offer a subtle clue as to one of them: he has a six letter name and the last fiveletters are arrick.

Prometheus

(01/08/2003; 20:04:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93847)

Earnings

All,

I've been watching the reported S&P GAAP earnings (in Barron's) rising lately. What gives? With factory orders declining (Thanks BB), the consumer retrenching (Ciruit City SALES down 6%), the auto companies' sales very soft, CAPEX down, and all the rest - how can earnings be increasing? Am I missing something, or is something else going on? Did the PPT pay S&P a visit ("Do you want your return audited?")? Or is this just a short pause before the plunge resumes?

I'm afraid I'm just a little nonplussed. Any thoughts from the forum would be greatly appreciated.

P

White Hills

(01/08/2003; 20:11:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93848)

FOA-Where are you?

I miss not being able to go to USA Gold and click on the latest post on the Gold Trail. His posts were organized and very clear even for a beginner likeme. I owe all my interest in gold and accumulation of same to his brillance. FOA if you are out there- To the moon Alice. I am very sorry to see such a anti-american slant to some of the posters here. After being attacked by one.. I went back in the previous posts and it seems that the same people inject their venom every chance they get. I suggest we all go back and read the Prohibitions of the forum particulerly the first one. White Hills

Golden Bear

(01/08/2003; 20:16:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93849)

silvercollector (msg#: 93842), a nation of one (msg#: 93839)

Sirs, thank you.

sc - never apologize for speaking truth, it will be gladly received by those who actively seek it, irrespective of how dire the contents of such...

Currently on vacation, I must leave to take the wife out for lunch and sight-seeing...

Regards to you both.

Malfleur

(01/08/2003; 20:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93850)

Golden Bear (Message 93820)

Well, at least we know why he's been retired.

Kagalaska

(01/08/2003; 20:25:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93851)

SKI 93722 Prep for Depression

Longtime lurker first time poster. I am sure that most posters here will be prepped for an economic downturn that gets ugly(food, fuel, shelter, ect.). There are however Presidential Executive Orders (some from the time of Kennedy)that allow for the confiscation of RAW materials(bullion?) during times of national need.http://www.sonic.net/sentinel/gvcon5.html What a moral dilema if gold is deemed a economicly strategic metal or silver is deemed an industrialy strategic metal, whats a good guy too do? If we are ready for the effects of financial/social meltdown and remain so during the event will we be labled unamerican, hoarders or worse will we end up here?http://www.apfn.org/apfn/camps.htm thoughts? ideas? My time in the Corps taught me to keep eyes and ears open mouth shut. This grasshopper has, over the last few weeks realized he is in the temple whilst here, and does not want to leave. RE: Mr. GRESHAMpost #932777 "A" list "B" list for posters- would you want to cut off new ideas from others or do you want this forum to get inbred?

Gold King

(01/08/2003; 20:28:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93852)

Coal Bed Methane (natural gas)

http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36%257E73%257E1094853,00.htmlIt's nice to see someone finally speak out and do something to try to rein in the gas energy producers. We all know that we need energy, but some of us realize we need to produce this energy in an environmentally friendly manner. The energy pimps keep blowing the crisis horn, when more money could be saved through conservation than could be extracted in the next ten years from the Powder River Basin coal bed methane fields. These energy producers are really the dirtiest pigs that you could ever imagine. When they first started drilling in the Basin they just pumped the water out on the ground creating huge erosion events that destroyed prime fish habitat. The water pumped out is fine for drinking but is toxic to plants and destroys fine textured soils. The waste water contains massive amounts of salt and when dumped in the river and used by irrigators down river, their farms will become unproductive and worthless. Water is a valuable resource in the area and should not be wasted. There are ways of producing CBM without destroying the environment. This will cost more money, but with the exorbitant profits these guys are making, it would seem like they should be held responsible for doing it right.

Gold King who sleeps with his Silver Queen

a nation of one

(01/08/2003; 20:31:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93853)

...

"Our minaret's are bayonets...".

--He means by this that his people's religion is one of their most effective weapons against us. Think of the religions that have had their origins in the Middle East as being biological strategies -one group of people against other groups of people- and it is like cleaning a dirty window.

Sierra Madre

(01/08/2003; 20:31:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93854)

Sir Silvercollector, and Mr. White Hills and Mr. Hoosier Goldbug

Sir Silvercollector: with regard to your question about how I came to know Mr. F. Lips, I can say that I was introduced to him by Antal E. Fekete, who is a friend I have known for many years, and whose thinking I admire greatly for its clarity and understanding of complicated issues in economics. It is my impression that Mr. Lips has, like all of us, a limited knowledge of what is really transpiring behind the scenes with gold, and like all of us, all he can do is make careful guesses. I am sorry to see that some would put his character in doubt. I feel that those of us who are pro-gold from principle, should not cast aspersions on each other.

Mr. White Hills and Mr. Hoosier Goldbug: I will not continue with any replies to you, out of respect for this Forum, which asks that we stick to the subject of gold.

Sierra

ElGordo

(01/08/2003; 20:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93855)

What a drop

Des Plaines, Illinois, Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- United Stationers Inc., the largest U.S. wholesaler of office supplies, said fourth-quarter earnings were 2 cents to 5 cents a share, down from 57 cents a year earlier, as sales declined.

Sales dropped 1.4 percent to $923 million from $936 million a year earlier based on a preliminary review, the company said in a statement distributed by PR Newswire. Actual results will be reported on Jan. 30.

United Stationers fell 25 cents to $26.75 at 4 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The news was announced after U.S. markets closed. The company's main phone number went unanswered after business hours.
_______________
Earnings were 57c per share last year, this 4th qtr is 5c!
Thats quite a drop. This company is the largest wholesaler
of office supplies. They must have gone back to making notes
on their arms and passing that funky pen. woohoo

Gandalf the White

(01/08/2003; 20:40:15 MDT - Msg ID: 93856)

WELCOME Sir Kagalaska !!! and thanks for the "NOTE" !

Kagalaska (01/08/03; 20:25:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 93851)
===
YES, Mr. G's thought of an "A" and "B" board was heart stopping for me too. Perhaps I could conjure up a "C" board just for Mr. G ? <;-) I am sure that the magic and skill of Sir Randy, can allow the flood of "newbies" to arrive and learn from the sage posters here, WITHOUT crashing the board like has been happening at other gold webpages.
---
Note to Mr. G !! HAVE you forgotten who is assisting SIR MK with this FORUM ? Shame on you, Mr. G !! (PS: please email me at the secret door.)
<.-)

cyberbat

(01/08/2003; 20:52:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93857)

Gold & Silver Potpourii

Required reading for all knights and ladies. Gold Eagle.
Gold and Silver poypourii Jan. 10th. Get your gold now before it's too late!! Don't even wait on a correction, just do it right here on this sight.
Do not store any gold in a bank deposit box. When the bank holidays are declared by the Fed, you can't get in to get it. Buy you a safe or bury it from the Banksters and the ATF in your neighbor's back yard at 3:00 in the morning.
Go now!!
Cyberbat

Gold King

(01/08/2003; 20:54:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93858)

good guy CBM pimps?

I am sure that there are good CBM producers out there. I guess that the bad ones make it tough for them. It's the bad producers that get the press I would imagine. The damage that the bad ones do can cloud ones view of the breed.

the Gold King who sleeps with the Silver Queen

Christian

(01/08/2003; 20:56:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93859)

911-Gold

911 was a plan which to cause a tragedy and out of that tragedy The Bush Clan implemented a militaristic agenda that has been in the works for more than a decade. War requires a pretext. War is a means by which government seeks to secure a political end they can not achieve through peaceful means. What happened to Germany with Hitler is now happening in the U.S., financed by the same clan. Massive and well documented insider trading in 11 countries show that CIA, A.B. "Buzzy" Krongard made $15 Billion for the Bush Clan on put options alone. This does not include the Enron stock manipulation and transfer of trading platforms to ITERA. Alan Greenspan involvment to transfere the Enron trading platform and loot to ITERA's Florida office for the Bush Clan shows who he is working for. For the record the twin towers pancacked because the center supports were bombed from the bottom. Guess what was stored there, a worthless relic of gold and silver. The rest was a side show to divert attention to what was really going on. A lot of good FBI and CIA people are now gone and a lot of bad people made a lot of money be it on trades or public support money. Bush will be the next president, elected or not, whether we like it or not. Ashcroft is not Ashcroft he is a Bowater translated in German to ____wasser-man who was Hitler's right hand man.... Most Democrats are party to this mess.

Bulldog

(01/08/2003; 21:02:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93860)

Cyberbat

I'm goiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnngggggggg

cyberbat

(01/08/2003; 21:05:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93861)

@Christain

I hope you are just kidding with your last post Christain. If you are not then you are dangerously close to total insanity and need help. Are you saying the 1st floor gerters were bombed out at the twin towers in the very same instant that the planes struck the buildings and NOBODY noticed the explosian on the fist floors or basement ? I've got some moon beams that are for sale and I would like to talk with you about buying them from me!!

Mr Gresham

(01/08/2003; 21:18:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93862)

Kagalaska/Gandalf

I know the "gating" process is pretty solid here -- just got REAL REAL tired at the end of Monday, and found too many good posts to skip over, knowing I wouldn't get to them the next day. I was stubbornly sitting at the computer, drooping over in my chair.

Then, a POG dip and resurgence told me that someday we'll be very, very full -- of , yes, great reading, more great reading. What will I do then? Skim faster?

I'm sorry; yes, I too reject anything hierarchical, now that I imagine it actually being upon us. I pick out who I want to read more carefully, but you know, usually I just keep going and READ EVERYTHING. (Then, there's no time left to comment on all the good stuff, so I've been quiet lately, which is probably a PLUS.)

I'll repeat the overarching thing that I really want to say about the quality of posters here (and those who are likely to join us later): If WE (amateurs) can figure it (this conjure-up money system) out, then there's hope for the brainwashed public at large to demand and move toward something healthier in our future. Yes, HOPE begins here, for me...

Prometheus

(01/08/2003; 21:33:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93863)

Sierra Madre

Hey, Sierra
You said you know Antal Fekete. I think I told you earlier how much I thought of his articles. I've learned so much from reading his series of posts last fall on his real bills doctrine, etc. But I thought he was planning to continue with another series of lectures this winter. Do you know where he's been? Has he just been pausing to reload, or did something more sinister happen? When someone as politically incorrect as he is goes quiet my imagination starts to run.

I don't get to post nearly as often as I would like. It seems like it's all I can do just to keep up with my life. But I do try to read the forum. I always look forward to reading your posts. You are so thoughtful and genteel. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

P.

Mr Gresham

(01/08/2003; 21:57:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93864)

Prometheus: Latest Antal

http://www.goldisfreedom.com/Greenspan-andCo.htmHaven't made it through it yet...

Christian

(01/08/2003; 22:14:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93865)

@cyberbat

1st floor (basement) center support were bombed out after the planes hit both buildings. Let's let facts speak for themselves. Sometimes things are not what they seem. The top came down because the bottom gave way. Let's go with facts.----- We are on the verge of a war on Iraq. Anyone who looks at what is going on behind the scene knows this is going to be a long term situation. The Fact is - we need their oil and we can not pay for it with real money. That does not leave us with many options. I have some hope that Cheney will work us out of this mess as far as the oil question is concerned, but I do not believe he can solve the Isreali/Palestenian problem. Isreal is draining us financially in a number of ways. There is a need to place troops between Isreal and the rest of the world. If the U.N. wants to be a peace keeping force instead of a World Government, they should at least make an effort to keep peace.

Black Blade

(01/08/2003; 22:17:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93866)

Re: Gold King � CBM

Sorry, I won't be easily baited by an editorial that even refuses to state the name of the author. It is so pathetically flawed and does not state any evidence for the stated assertions. The water that is withdrawn is the same water consumed by inhabitants of the region. I find it curious that the "author" assumes that we do not need protection from drinking this tainted "polluted" water. Maybe you should first get your facts straight and maybe even study the subject before you make unsubstantiated accusations (even though this is exactly what the "author" does). I will give you a little start here:

1. What are the chemical compositions of the "salts" in the water? (Hint: the NaCl content is within background norms, so what are these "salts"?)

2. How much of the Powder River Basin is actually "farm land" and where is this "farm land" located?

3. One small independent did exceed discharge limits on the Tongue River and they are no longer working due to unproductive/poorly producing wells. Other than that, where exactly is this destroyed "prime fish habitat" in the Powder River Basin you refer too (I have extremely good success wherever I go fishing here). Since the lowland regions are filled with carp where such stream do exist, where exactly is this destroyed "prime fish habitat" located? Also, given that these newly created stock ponds have become prime wildlife habitat for ducks, geese, various waterfowl and upland game birds, a source of water for antelope, deer, wild horses, and (gulp) even livestock, and some even (gulp) stocked with fish, not to mention the abundance of plant life that springs up around these ponds, where exactly is this environmental damage you refer too?

4. I also would for the record ask what your educational/professional background and qualifications are for making such "informed scientific statements" and "scientific conclusions" (if any)?

5. Finally I ask (since you are an informed expert on the subject), what are the "exorbitant profits" made (that is how much)? Who (name the company/individuals) are these people/companies and exactly how much profit are they making on CMB in the Powder River Basin (minus expenses, royalties, access fees, lease payments, etc.)?

As I have stated before, there are a few producers who do not take as much care as they should and do not use qualified geologists/geoscientists (they use "engineers" or worse) to oversee the placement of production casing for example (we have a name for them and most are no longer actively working in the Basin). I have already discussed this in the past with you, but apparently you have either not absorbed the information or do not care (or simply have an agenda that you do not wish to share with the rest of us). Therefore I will just leave you with these questions in the hope that you will actually take the time to do some research and study the subject before you make such wild unsubstantiated claims without supporting evidence to back your position. I (and others) really do look forward to hearing about the results of your research and study. I salivate with anticipation. Good luck!

- Black Blade

PH in LA

(01/08/2003; 22:27:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93867)

Lower Doller: Is That Really What Rising POG is About?

MK:

Yes, we are seeing a lower dollar as a possible cause for our lovely higher POG. Politics? OK... But we heard a lot of rhetoric about a change in policy around the moment when Dubya took office and there was no pronounced movement in POG then.

Maybe there's more in the mix now?

knotakare

(01/08/2003; 22:31:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93868)

gold ownership, bridge to the future

When I was a kid growing up in lower Michigan my family had some very special friends in our church. They were a German couple, who lived on a small farm, and had emigrated to the US after WW2. I will never forget, drinking plum juice from their orchard, and tasting Mrs Hoffman's rye bread.

My parents told me that they were very hard working, and very frugal. They were very kind people. They loved their gardens and their woods at the back of the farm. My dad had grown up on a farm, so they enjoyed discussing gardening and swapping plants.

One time Henry showed me a bullet belt that he had worn as a German soldier, which had been nicked by an allied bullet, when he had been in combat. I believe Henry was a janitor, and in 20 short years they had accomplished so much in America. Their farm was small but very beautiful, their gardens were amazing. They had lived through the devastation of World War 2, and survived with their small children, and they were able to dream of better days in a new land.

Is it possible that they were able to save a little gold before the great inflation in Germany of the 1920's? I will never know, but it may have been what got them started again 20 years latter in America.

I think that everyone in the world should be able to accumulate savings in something of value, like gold coins, that is portable and not subject to re-taxation. I plan to purchase more coins in the days ahead, as the times are very uncertain, and I seek a store of value, and antedote to Sir Allan's printing presses.

Zhisheng

(01/08/2003; 22:43:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93869)

CoBra(too) (93756)Mountain Top (93787)Belgian (93797)Gandalf (93770)silvercollector (93783)

Sorry to be so long in responding---have been outside working most of the day. This morning, actuated by one of Belgian's posts, I asked: if a nation has entered the European Monetary Union (perforce contributing some gold), might it recover such gold if it later elected to secede?

CoBra(too) suggested that secession would be an unlikely event at this stage. Apparently so� But the world is increasingly financially unstable: the rise in price of gold reflects this instability, and the rapid shift of manufacturing from the West to the East portends that relative stability will not soon return. As in the US, conditions within Europe may change radically in the not distant future.

Mountain Top cautions that in the event a nation did try to secede, it might find the door barred, as the Confederate States found when they tried it in the US a century and a half ago---for reasons of Money. I am just finishing the THE CREATURE FROM JEKYLL ISLAND, by G. Edward Griffin. I recommend this book to anyone who wishes to learn how Money, or rather the powerful owners of most of it, exercise their will. It contains a quite good explanation of why the Confederacy tried to secede, why the Union would not permit it, how the war was financed, and the influence of the European powers.

Thinking on the American parallel, it occurs to me that a nation might want to withdraw from the EMU only if it were contributing more than its fair share. And in that case, the EMU certainly would not wish to lose ITS attendent advantage. Its greater size and power would be an awful temptation to forcibly, if necessary, retain that advantage.

Belgian promised to look into the question. However he suggested that if there were free exchange of euros for gold back and forth between national vaults and the EMU vault, secession might involve returning all Euros in exchange for an "equivalent" amount of gold---and asked what currency would be used in the nation after secession. Again the implication is that it would not likely happen.

Presently the EMU is pressuring its three largest members, Germany, France, and Italy, to balance their budgets: either to raise taxes or to lower spending. It has yet to be shown how, in a democracy where politicians are elected by promising to increase Government largesse and diminish taxes, that a budget can be balanced for any considerable period of time. The EMU in attempting to do so is fighting an uphill battle, perhaps an unwinnable one. History says they will have to change their policy, and after they do, there either will be gradual or rapid hidden taxation of those who have savings, through loss of buying power. It is conceivable to me that some European nation at some point may decide to try a different route.

Belgian also predicts that gold will take a more important role in the future, and that there will be competition to see who can acquire more of it. If that be true, and it certainly seems plausible, the question of a big player (the EMU for instance) voluntarily relinquishing some of it to a smaller player (a seceding nation) becomes plobematic.

Thanks all of you for the stimulating responses.

Gandalf�. YOUR crystal ball showing the present was about 7 seconds ahead of mine today!

Silvercollector�. I wish I knew whether 354/355 would yield this time around! Jim Sinclair says it will yield soon, and he has been incredibly accurate of late.

Black Blade

(01/08/2003; 22:44:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93870)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm
Snippit:

The financial industry has become almost hostile to the new bull market in "things." If gold is the leading economic class two years in a row, it is considered a fluke, a mania, an anomaly, an aberration or any other thing but natural. Precious metals are disdained, disparaged or discarded by Wall Street and the mainstream financial media, in print or on cable TV. I actually heard one investment advisor here locally on talk radio warn investors to avoid gold. The rationale was that it had been the top performer last year so it was unlikely to perform this year. I don't ever recall Wall Street ever telling investors that because stocks had gone up one year as an asset class to avoid them the following year. When an asset class goes up two consecutive years it usually indicates that asset class is in a bull market. This is the predicament that Wall Street now faces--the markets are transitioning from "paper" to "things." Wall Street is not set up to handle "things." Wall Street is in the business of selling paper assets�stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and annuities or other packaged paper financial products. Most major Wall Street firms have disbanded or sold their commodity trading business. They have very few analysts that even cover the business. The new bull market in "things," whether it is precious metals, energy or food, is still vastly under-owned. The world's entire market value of gold and silver stocks is less than the value of Coca Cola, Cisco, or GE. That is not the way it will be as this bull market gathers steam for we are still in the early stages.

As far as precious metals, energy and food are concerned, we are still in the formative stages. The smart money has moved in, but the new trend has yet to catch on at the institutional level. Some funds own gold, but they mostly trade it. You will not find gold, silver, energy, or food making up large percentages of fund portfolios the same way that technology did in the last decade. However, when it comes to precious metals, the choices are few. There aren't that many high quality stocks, and the number of shares outstanding is small. The same goes for the actual price of the metals themselves. There simply is not enough gold and silver on the commodity exchanges to handle investment demand. Both gold and silver have been running supply deficits for over a decade just from industrial demand. What a sight to behold when institutions, and finally the general public catches on to this new trend. One can only speculate where the price of gold, silver and precious metal equities will be when they discover this new trend. Suffice to say the prices will be much, much higher due to the scarcity of the metals and the metals stocks. This is a razor thin market that is not ready to handle large investment demand, especially when the public wakes up to the fact that the emperor has no clothes.

Black Blade: Puplava sums it up pretty well. I have stated that the fundamental case for precious metals is "Very Bullish" (see today's DMR). I do laugh at the media trolls as they stumble over themselves as they downplay the precious metals. Some of their guests are pure clowns at best. I love the one recent guest on CNBC who was given accolades for beating the benchmark S&P even though his portfolio was in the red. Later when asked about Gold he gave the patent answer that it was in a 20 year bear market and that it hasn't performed during that time � yada, yada, yada,� - then said to avoid it (even though it is in the early stages of a confirmed Bull Market). Anyone who has been watching the early segment "Wake Up Call" or the Asian/European versions of CNBC get a different positive take than those of us in the U.S. Wall Street is in turmoil and the equities markets are in a "secular bear market". That makes it difficult to make a compelling sales pitch for stocks. So what do they do? They bash anything that is salvaging the portfolios of the truly "smart money". It is some of the best comedy going on television.

Gandalf the White

(01/08/2003; 22:46:34 MDT - Msg ID: 93871)

Attn: Mr. G !!!!!

Mr Gresham (01/08/03; 21:18:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 93862)
Kagalaska/Gandalf
===
I cast upon you a "SPEED READING SPELL" !
(and you should have a SCROLLING mouse too.)
<;-)

Rookie

(01/08/2003; 22:49:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93872)

I am learning little or nothing about investing in gold

I recently became aware of usagold and by means of the web site I learned of the gold discussion forum. I thought it would be useful for me as a new invester to read the posts.

After trolling through the messages for 3 days I have come to the conclusion that much of the rhetoric has little to do with investing in gold--except for the suggestion not to keep metal in a bank safe deposit box.

I will post no further messages and will probably find something more productive to do with my time.

One last comment: It is apparent that considerable anti-semetic and anti-American sentiment pervades the thoughts of too many participants.

Rookie

Gandalf the White

(01/08/2003; 22:55:24 MDT - Msg ID: 93873)

WELCOME Sir Rookie !! Please do stay around awhile and ....

Rookie (01/08/03; 22:49:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 93872)
===
MAY I suggest a visit to the "Hall of Fame" and the "Gold Trail" to see the eye opening information for which you were looking !!
Sorry, BUT the "Giants" can't be posting every day.
AFTER you have read in those honored ROOMS, come back and see if you have changed your mind.
THANKS
GW
<;-)

Galerider

(01/08/2003; 23:02:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93874)

ROOKIE

Hey Rookie,
Hope someone greeted and welcomed you on this net. hang in there and keep reading. There are lots of smart people on this site. Don't be discouraged by remarks made about the Arab-Israel question. I'm mostly a lurker and I visit this site every day. Usually, those remarks don't apprear very often. When they do, I tend to skim over them to get to the higher plane. To all, I appreciate all the information and insight I gather daily from this net. Mr. Gresham, I'd even go on the B list in order to stay here. Rookie, look into rare coins but stay away from the St. Gaudens. There is much to be said for gold stocks but I tend to stay in the physical. I do have a few commodity contracts right now (virgin player, might lose my shirt)but I think this site has more to say about survival of family and friends during a severe economic crisis rather than making a quick or tremendous profit from the precious metals.

Black Blade

(01/08/2003; 23:03:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93875)

Oil Inventories Rise - No, Fall - No, Rise - No, Fall....

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhxGKhSDQ3J1ZGUgCrude Oil Falls on Unexpected U.S. Inventory Rise

Snippit:

New York, Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil dropped after an Energy Department report showed an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories, easing concern that a five-week strike in Venezuela was limiting supplies. Oil stocks held by U.S. refiners rose 400,000 barrels to 278.7 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 3. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey expected a drop of between 4.4 million and 5.2 million barrels. Before the strike, Venezuela pumped about 9 percent of the oil used in the U.S. The South American country says production now is about a fifth of normal levels. ``Nobody expected crude-oil supplies to rise,'' said Marshall Steeves, an analyst with Refco Group Ltd. in New York. ``A lot of it must be coming from Europe, where prices are lower. There is probably extra Middle East oil arriving.''

Whoa!!! But wait a minute:

Snippit:

Prices rebounded from steeper losses after the American Petroleum Institute in a separate report said inventories fell 2 million barrels to 276 million barrels. The institute has moved its weekly report on U.S. supplies, imports and production to Wednesday mornings from late on Tuesday to coincide with the government report.

Black Blade: Up or down? The Energy Information Agency (EIA) says inventories rose 400,000 bbl, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) says that inventories fell 2 million bbl!!! These boyz need to get on the same page. Either way you slice it inventories are at 26 year lows.

Galerider

(01/08/2003; 23:05:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93876)

GANDALF GREETINGS

Thanks for greeting the Rookie, knew you would beat my post.

elevator guy

(01/08/2003; 23:07:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93877)

Mikal and Belgian

Warm thanks for your time and input.

The Euro/FRN/gold/oil jig zaw puzzle in my brain has a few more pieces put in place, thanks to your input!

Thanks again.

donnemuir

(01/08/2003; 23:08:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93878)

Rookie

Sorry, Rookie, this forum is not the Reader's Digest. This is PHD material. The fish are there, but you have to get familiar with the water...3 days trolling won't do it.

elevator guy

(01/08/2003; 23:09:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93879)

Golden Bear, re:msg 93820

Picky, picky, picky....

Sorry, couldn't resist the humor angle there! What a set up for a one-liner...

Gandalf the White

(01/08/2003; 23:18:53 MDT - Msg ID: 93880)

Thanks Sir Galerider for also giving a WELCOME to Sir Rookie !! ... AND

Sir Rookie, "Did you miss this post ?"
====
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (01/04/03; 17:52:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 93431)
$14.95 retail, get yours directly from the author for $5.95
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

===
AND perhaps this "BIBLE" will answer ALL your questions !!!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/08/2003; 23:22:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93881)

SORRY .... LADY Galerider !!

Senility has arrived !
<;-)

physicalman

(01/08/2003; 23:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 93882)

to Everyone

I have seen welling of emotions among by brothers and sisters here at the forum the last couple of days. I would not dare to take sides in all this except to remind you all that we are family, sharing our knowledge'some limited, some almost infinite between ourselves freely and unrestricted to all who enter. If this country operated like this forum does most of the time, the world (although never to be perfect) would be a vastly different place to live. Does Saddam need to go, yes he does. Did we help him covertly as a country in the 70's and 80's, yes we did. Does that excuse his actions, no it does not. Should he be made to pay for his actions, yes. Should this go to the banker, military/industrial complex, no it should not. Should it be made to the taxpayers of this country, partly and the other should go to his long suffering peoples without bleeding off by autocrats and technocrats, Yes. Has there been conspiracies played out against the Constitution for almost its entire exsistance, Probably. Were the people not warned by the founders to be viligent of those we chose to lead and govern, Yes. That is why we need to make sure to always stay civil to each other. The problems are not of our opinions and/or beliefs but what will be our duties to mankind in the future?
I for on like to see the passion of emotions expressed. It shows that we are all of the same thread in many ways. We reject dishonesty,conspiricies and debt enslavement. We live day to day with the green instrument of debt but we know that the future lies with the timeless instruments of value.
So now that most here feel that we are on the cusp of the restoration of au/ag. being rightfully restored to their historical posts the biggest problems that i think we face are we prepared to be able to contribute to helping society through the dark days that will be upon us soon. Although i feel very good about how much i have benefitted from this rise in precious metals, in the last few weeks i have felt the weight of enormous responsibility upon my shoulders.If society breaks down harshly, how many can i help? Who can i trust? Will i have the strength to turn away one more so as not to endanger 25 or 50 others even though it would condemn the 51st to perish? Whether we go to war or not the US economy/ dollar has been linked to so much of the worlds well-being that when the chips fall here, there will be many rockslides most everywhere else. I am not judging or jumping on anyone here. God knows our opinions are one of the few things we have left and i'm sure that some here temper those in case TPTB are watching closer than we think.
All welcome to respond
All welcomed to agree or disagree
And as always
IMVHO

Galerider

(01/08/2003; 23:29:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93883)

SIR OR LADYl

Gandalf,
Are you losing your edge? It's Sir, Sir. I guess you are having one of those Senior moments. Don't worry we all do. Tried to pull my wife's jeans on this morning as I got ready for work in the pre dawn hours.

physicalman

(01/08/2003; 23:47:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93884)

Black blade

Thanks for being a strong voice of truth, facts and reason on the energy industry in this country. There will be a time in our near future where america will need her energy and mineral resourses more than ever. Not to thrive but just to survive.

mikal

(01/08/2003; 23:47:35 MDT - Msg ID: 93885)

Re: Forum defamation, political correctness and con artists

We've heard it all here before. The posters get bounced and come back with a new handle. Complaining of discrimination without specific proof. Generalizing the overall quality of the forum to poor, from some unspecified dissatisfaction. Playing on emotions and exaggerating. Taking advantage of the forum's hospitality.

davefinger

(01/08/2003; 23:50:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93886)

Rookie

Signal is getting a little weak in all the noise lately, but you should definitely check out the Hall of Fame and archives. People here are mostly independently minded realists. The kind of people who will still subscribe to ideas and truths even in the face of public ridicule. As a result you will hear ideas on things all the way from gold and Austrian economics to forestry and general survivalism. Heck, you can even don your foil hat and you generally won't be laughed at. I've been lurking here for about nine months and have not discerned any desire in any post for America to fall in the 'is no more' sense. Just in the 'things are screwed, wish we could fix it' sense. I would call it 'ideal-American' thought, certainly not anti-American. In a similar vein, remember that it is possible for people to have a problem with how the state of Israel behaves and not have any problem with Jews per se.

Hang in there a little more!

Black Blade

(01/09/2003; 00:15:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93887)

State Department lobbying OPEC to crank it up

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/energy/1728036
Snippit:

WASHINGTON - The State Department is making private appeals to members of the world oil cartel to increase crude production to offset a dwindling output from Venezuela. OPEC members will gather this weekend for an emergency meeting to decide how much more crude to pump to prevent the Venezuela strike and a looming war from causing an oil price shock. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said several members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries had been approached. A boost in output "would be a positive development," he said. Boucher did not identify which members of the cartel had been solicited in advance of this weekend's emergency meeting. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced today it will meet on Jan. 12 in Vienna after a 25 percent rise in prices during November and December. "The world has tried everything to boost growth without much success and if oil prices stay high we're in for another year of very slow growth," said Mehdi Varzi of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. "They're trying to prevent panic on the oil markets. Most in OPEC are resigned to a war in the Gulf," said Varzi.

Black Blade: Suddenly we no longer hear Wall Street pundits and economists brushing off oil as not important because it's only a small percentage of the GDP. Instead it is the talk of the financial media.

Black Blade

(01/09/2003; 00:17:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93888)

Energy prices expected to remain high

http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2003010800008g6728&SA=Latest%20News
Snippit:

Chaos in Venezuela and strife in the Middle East are running up home heating bills and the cost of filling up at the pump for consumers nationwide. And there's no relief on the horizon, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. The federal agency expects energy prices will remain high for the rest of the year. Rising crude oil costs translate directly into higher gasoline prices. A recent survey by AAA Chicago found the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline in the Chicago area had reached $1.52 from $1.20 a year ago. "It's poised to go higher," said Mark Bruno, a spokesman for the auto club. "Higher gas prices at this time of year are very unusual." Consumers also will get a surprise when they open their utility bills. "You don't have to be a mathematician to figure that people's heating bills are significantly higher this month," said Rob Kelter, director of litigation for the Citizens Utility Board. "It creates economic hardship for the people who can afford it the least." Also, "There is no quick fix here," warned George Gaspar, managing director of petroleum research for Robert W. Baird & Co. and investment banking firm." We are looking at six or seven weeks of limited additional supply."

Rising natural gas prices are due less to international tension and more to recent changes in the economy. Dave Costello, an economist who prepares short-term energy forecasts for the Energy Information Administration, said higher gas prices stem in part from its increased use in generating electricity. Most new power generation is fueled by natural gas. "Another thing happening with natural gas is that some sectors switch from oil to natural gas when the price of oil goes up," Costello said. That increases demand and pushes up prices.

Black Blade: Higher energy costs drop directly to the bottom line on corporate balance sheets and higher costs hit consumers in the pocketbook. This is happening when corporate earnings are taking a big hit. Every postwar economic recession has been preceded by an energy crisis and this time is no different.

Black Blade

(01/09/2003; 00:32:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93889)

Venezuela's Currency Hits Record Low

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/sns-ap-venezuela-strike0108jan08,0,1692724.story?coll=ny%2Dnationworld%2Dheadlines
Snippit:

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Venezuela's currency reached a record low against the dollar Wednesday after banks said they will close for two days to support a 38-day-old strike seeking President Hugo Chavez's ouster. Demand for dollars soared on speculation that Chavez's government, facing a fiscal crisis because of dwindling oil and tax revenues, would devalue the bolivar to balance its budget. Nervous depositors wanted dollars before the banks closed, not knowing what the bolivar would be worth when banks reopen next week. Jose Torres, president of Fetrabanca, the umbrella group for bank workers unions, said banks will shut down Thursday and Friday, adding weight to a strike that has dried up oil income in the world's fifth largest oil exporter. Chavez has gone so far as to threaten nationalizing striking banks, which have opened just three hours a day since Dec. 9. Thousands line up each morning outside Caracas banks that are splattered with graffiti reading "I want my money!" and "Banker Thieves!"

Black Blade: "Interesting" as it sounds eerily familiar. These people should have stored some emergency cash and accumulated Gold and Silver for wealth preservation. It looks grim at best.

Black Blade

(01/09/2003; 00:48:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93890)

Cold Weather Spurs Natural Gas Prices

http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=NR200301081180.3_5ac9000be3a2dd65
Snippit:

Jan. 7--Less production and colder temperatures have led to higher natural gas prices, but the country could face price spikes and gas shortages if conditions decline further, experts said Monday. The country began the winter season near a capacity of 3.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in storage, but reserves have already been depleted to about 2.4 trillion cubic feet, said Tony Say, president of Oklahoma City-based gas marketing company Clearwater Enterprises Inc. Reserves are well below the January 2001 level of 2.9 trillion cubic feet, though last winter was considered the warmest winter in decades. While colder temperatures have led to increased demand for natural gas, the nation's reserves have also suffered from decreased production, said Bruce Bell, chairman of the Mid-Content Oil and Gas Association in Oklahoma City. About 730 rigs are drilling for gas nationwide. More than 1,000 are needed just to get back to last year's production levels, Bell said. With increased demand combining with decreased production, Say predicted reserves could dip as low as 750 billion cubic feet by the end of the season. Low reserve levels would ensure that gas prices remain strong throughout the summer as reserves are replaced. If more natural gas than expected is burned this winter, the country could face an energy shortage, which would not be good for anyone, Bell said.

Black Blade: An energy crisis is a done deal. This will slam the economy into a deeper recession from which it will not recover for several years. There simply is not enough reserve replacement at present and there are bottlenecks throughout the transmission and distribution system. The NatGas draws will likely accelerate as an Artic blast appears to be on the way for the midsection and east coast regions of the US. We can't store oil or NG very easily but we can accumulate and store precious metals to preserve wealth.

Topaz

(01/09/2003; 01:06:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93891)

@Belgian re Sth Africa.

Hi Sir B,
Spent the week away "in the wilderness" and was able to recall that Mbeki in fact visited London....not Europe as originally thought.
This put's a different perspective on the matter and I'm now convinced SA is firmly in the US$ camp.
So we have (on anecdotal evidence) a plausable connection:
1. JPM has been nett long (on their own acc) since before Dec01.
2. Treasury Gold now deep storage Gold in Sth Africa (via the SA Minerals Bill)
Watch and listen when GWB visits SA.
It also appears that "Nationalisation of Gold resources" is a given further down the track as they are being traded today in Paper form.

Aristotle

(01/09/2003; 01:08:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93892)

a nation of one

Your #93841 is perhaps the most profound soundbite I've heard all week! It lends itself perfectly to many levels of thought and interpretation.

= = = =
"Is the world doomed?" Only from one moment to the next.
= = = =

"Only." That's a bright outlook in my book -- everlasting hope for the fate of man! And, of course, Gold is needed for all those pesky "moments" that crop up in between all the good stuff in life.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Trojan

(01/09/2003; 01:09:11 MDT - Msg ID: 93893)

The Mother Of All Bubbles

http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2002/2924fannie_mae.html I was directed to the link earlier tonight through the daily Midas Commentary.

I strongly recommend everyone interested in finding out the Truth of what awaits when the Bubble bursts to take the time to carefully read this article.

I am no expert on this topic but it makes sense to me

Perhaps someone knowledgeable on this topic might want to add their comments.

It relates to all aspects of the USA economy and I found the article truly mind boggling.

Have a look and let's have some thoughts on this subject.

Talk about a Pyramid Scheme. It puts the South Sea Bubble Story to Shame.

Golden Bear

(01/09/2003; 01:19:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93894)

physicalman (msg#: 93882)

Excellent post physicalman,

may I add further that there are those that take offense to the socalled anti-semite, anti-american stance of some posters here at the forum.

I for one have been guilty of such since I joined the forum. However, I hold no regrets, for I do not criticize due to race or religion, I criticize due to ACTIONS!

Posts should be read carefully, and readers should be careful not to jump to conclusions that these criticisms are religious or race based, and they will get more out of these posts...

For example, there are wonderful Americans all around the world as well as in the US, and they are a pleasure to meet. However the ACTIONS of the US government to pressure the UN to exclude US citizens from being taken to the International Courts regarding criminal actions is an extreme case of double standards when the administration jumps up and down regarding what Saddam has done.

If individuals see this criticism as anti-American, then they need to examine whether they believe they themselves are above any form of criticism...

Black Blade

(01/09/2003; 01:36:25 MDT - Msg ID: 93896)

Tracking The Artic Cold Front

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=2
It's on the way. Should be hammering the midwest this morning. (See map at the link).

- Black Blade

darkhorse

(01/09/2003; 01:46:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93897)

Rookie (01/08/03; 22:49:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 93872)

Your observations are partly correct; the past few days have seen quite a bit of off topic bantering (with all due respect to MK/CPM and their hosting of this site...ain't America great?). But I believe you step WAY over the line when you say "It is apparent that considerable anti-semetic and anti-American sentiment pervades the thoughts of too many participants." You picked up all that in only three days time? I have to ask you a question...when you were in school, was there never a time that the lesson got disrupted for one reason or another? Last Friday's football game, maybe it was a couple days before a major holiday break, maybe the first real good day coming out of winter and everybody wants to be anywhere but in class. You were interested in the subject at hand, but for one reason or another, the lesson was disrupted. Did you get up, walk out of class and decide to drop the course? In regards to our sometimes rather spirited discussions around here, did you not notice the FORUM ARCHIVES, the HALL OF FAME, the GOLD TRAIL (best-seller on anybodys list) or even the DAILY MARKET REPORT (future Pulitzer material there, if you ask me)? I'd be willing to bet you're a rather young person, definately caught up in the "instant gratification" funk so many have fallen victim to. If you seriously want to learn what investing is about, it's gonna take one helluva lot more than three days, and a whole lot more than just one web site (tho a huge vault of information it is) to give you what you need. For starters, why don't you pick up the phone and call the numbers provided here and talk with the professionals, people that didn't make three-day snap decisions. This whole message isn't MEANT to sound harsh but your attitude, expectations and observations are most definately wrong if you expect to get anywhere meaningful in the years to come. Stick around a while...you'll be amazed at the things to be learned!

Black Blade

(01/09/2003; 01:49:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93898)

Libya, Syria, possibly Sudan also seek WMD, CIA warns

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/030108/1/36ba7.html
Snippit:

As the United States is consumed with proliferation crises in Iraq and North Korea, other counties such as Libya, Syria and possibly Sudan are quietly trying to acquire or expand secret arsenals of weapons of mass destruction, the CIA has warned. The US Central Intelligence Agency has also concluded that suspected terror mastermind Osama bin Laden, blamed for the September 11 attacks on the United States, "has a more sophisticated biological weapons research program than previously discovered." "Nuclear, chemical, biological, and ballistic missile-applicable technology and expertise continues to gradually disperse worldwide," the agency said in a report submitted to Congress last month and made public Tuesday.

Black Blade: "Interesting Times"

Trojan

(01/09/2003; 01:50:05 MDT - Msg ID: 93899)

Here Is The Bushism

George W. Bush

"There's an old saying in Tennessee"

I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee,
"that says, fool me once'shame on you."
Fool me, "you can't get fooled again."
Nashville, Tenn., Sept. 17, 2002

ElGordo

(01/09/2003; 02:27:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93901)

India test fires nuclear missile system

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/2641157.stmIndia has tested a nuclear-capable missile with a range of up to 800 kilometres.

The test of the Agni missile across the Bay of Bengal went ahead despite objections from Canada, which has sought to defuse tensions between India and Pakistan over the last few years.

Such tests reflect the thinking and mindset of India and the international community must take its notice

Pakistan Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed

Pakistan said the test was not unexpected but added that it demonstrated India's desire to "impose its hegemony" on the region.

"The test is one more step in enhancing India's overall weapons-of-mass-destruction capability," defence analyst Uday Bhaskar, told Reuters.

ElGordo

(01/09/2003; 02:36:22 MDT - Msg ID: 93902)

Germany sliding back into recession

Berlin, Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- German unemployment rose to a 4 1/2-year high in December, adding to evidence Europe's largest economy may have contracted last quarter.

The number of people out of work rose a seasonally adjusted 28,000 to 4.2 million, the Federal Labor Office said. The unemployment rate, adjusted for European Union standards, climbed to 8.5 percent from 8.4 percent.

``What, other than shedding jobs to cut costs, would you suggest we do in this environment?'' asked Herbert Schirmer, executive director of DruckMedia GmbH, a maker of printing plates located in Cologne. The company plans to pare its workforce of 120 by a fifth before the end of the year.

Germany may sink into its second recession in two years, as increases in taxes and social security payments prompt companies and consumers to lower spending, Morgan Stanley predicts. European consumers were more pessimistic than at any time in the past 5 1/2 years last month.

Siemens AG, Germany's No. 1 electronics and engineering company, plans to cut 970 jobs at the Munich headquarters of its fixed-line phone division, the company said this week. The cuts are part of 2,300 reductions already announced.

GoldnSilver2002

(01/09/2003; 02:59:12 MDT - Msg ID: 93903)

355 upon us,now it gets interesting!

Well,we have certainly now reached the much vaunted 354 number.Will the cabal,fix their problem secretly behind closed doors?The public to learn of what happened weeks,months or even years from now?It is hard to believe anyone could leave themselves in such a position.What is to stop them from buying an equal amount or more of long positions and letting her rip?Can anyone explain to me,what exactly happens at 354?Jpm must cover their position now?Or did something happen behind the scene,which may take time to surface?We have to face one fact,if there is no subsequent melt up in gold,the stories of the big bad cabal will ring somewhat hollow.Myself ,i believe in the manipulation of the p.o.g and other commodities, but it seems in america/wall st. they specialize at covering up their foul misdeeds and getting away with it.Did JPM just go broke?

I guess it's all the same,gold is ripping and a new GOLD bull has begun...all aboard!

Topaz

(01/09/2003; 03:43:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93904)

....musings

So we're sliding into the Abyss, Buck's gone for all money, Guns,Grub and Gold our ONLY salvation.......Baloney!!
We do stand at a defining moment in history though and - if we're smart - we, as citizens of the World, will do all in our power to prevent a repeat of mistakes made in Global monetary Architecture so all-pervasive "last century".
Globalisation is potentially such a positive aspect of future trade that we should welcome it with open arms. To design an acceptable Medium of Trade it must (a) Bridge the devide between Races, Colours and Creeds and (b) be SO simplistic as to be completely comprehensable to any Primary School leaver anywhere on the Planet.
The Bible, Koran, Torah and the US Constitution all favour non-ursurous Gold and Silver....the task is to transform these most noble of Metals into the 21st Century without fear or favour.
Can/will the Euro cut the Mustard?

Topaz

(01/09/2003; 04:33:30 MDT - Msg ID: 93905)

GS2002.

$354 was the figure bandied about as to when Barrick Golds hedge book goes from a "notional" loss to an "actual" equivalent.
JPM have been off the hook since pre-Dec'01 and I'm thinking Barrick are too.
Who saved their bacon 12 Mth's ago??
US Treasury Bullion now buried in Africa methinks. 'tis a wise Man who keeps his Gold in the Ground.

This slow-burn to the upside appears quite controlled and when you consider the US ONLY carries Gold in reserve, to effect a devaluation what else can she use but Gold....a coup-de-grace that will leave the opposition agog.

Gold King

(01/09/2003; 04:49:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93906)

@Black Blade CBM questions/water quality

Water quality
<1. What are the chemical compositions of the "salts" in the water? (Hint: the NaCl content is within background norms, so what are these "salts"?)>

Here you go Black Blade. This if from the paper listed below. Gold King

Water Quality Technical Report

Water Quality Impacts from Coal Bed Methane Development in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming and Montana

December 18, 2001
Abe Horpestad, Montana DEQ,
Don Skaar, Montana Fish Wildlife and Parks
Helen Dawson, EPA Region 8.

Water Quality Parameters for CBM produced waters
Tongue River
EC (electro conductivity)
Mean 2207, low 1473, high 3131
SAR (sodium Adsorbtion Ratio)
Mean 40, low 9, high 60
Fidelity Exploration

CBM water quality: EC of 2207 mS/cm (mean of CX ranch CBM produced water); SAR of 47 as stated in Draft EIS

Figure 8 shows that the discharge of untreated CBM produced water to streams will render all rivers, except the Bighorn and Little Bighorn Rivers, unusable for irrigation based on the EC-SAR relationship that represents no reduction in infiltration. The Bighorn and Little Bighorn Rivers also meet the additional limitation on SAR (<=12) proposed in the Draft EIS; the SAR values in these rivers after mixing with the RFD CBM discharge are less than 12. If the SAR criterion is 2 instead of 12, then only the Little Bighorn River would maintain acceptable water quality after mixing with the RFD CBM discharge (SAR < =2).

Threshold water quality values to protect aquatic species � Bicarbonate Toxicity to Aquatic Life4

Mount et al. (1997) described the acute toxicity of major ions to fathead minnows.5 The relative toxicity of the ions was: potassium (1.0), bicarbonate (0.45), magnesium (0.33), chloride (0.12), sulfate (0.08), sodium (0) and calcium (0). In CBM production water in the Powder River in Wyoming and at the CX Ranch in Montana, sodium bicarbonate is the most prevalent salt. There should be no toxicity associated with the presence of sodium, but the bicarbonate ion is quite lethal to fish.
The end point is lethality of post-hatch fish; only an acute effect threshold is calculated, and there is no accounting for chronic toxicity. In addition, it is not known if the post-hatch stage is the most sensitive. The egg stage has been shown to be quite sensitive to salts. The fathead minnow may not be the fish species most sensitive to the toxic effects of bicarbonate. If some untested, locally important species is very sensitive to bicarbonate, the fathead minnow assumption leads to an under-protective effect threshold. This is an especially important consideration given the State's fish species of special concern that occur in the river basins within the CBM development area

Figure 12 shows that, based on the EC-SAR relationship that represents no reduction in infiltration, the untreated discharge of RFD CBM produced water to streams will adversely impact all rivers except the Bighorn River. If the additional (low level) limitation proposed by MT DEQ for the Bighorn (EC <= 750) is considered, then it too will be adversely impacted. Under this restrictive case scenario, discharge of untreated CBM water needs to be severely restricted in almost all drainages (Table13, Figure 11). In order to meet thresholds for irrigation in Montana, essentially no untreated CBM produced water should be released to the Tongue, Rosebud and Bighorn rivers, less than 20% of the projected discharge can be released to the Little Powder and Powder in Wyoming, and less than 30% of the projected discharge can be released to the Mizpah and Little Bighorn Rivers. The only drainages that can accept all RFD CBM produced water are the Little Powder and Powder in Montana. These drainages have large assimilative capacities relative to the small number of wells projected as part of the RFD.

Comment: The fish in the region include Bass in the Tongue River Reservoir ( where thousands of fishermen go to fish)and a quite significant trout fishery below that reservoir. In the lower Tongue River there are Sauger, walleye, catfish, and occasional paddlefish and pallid sturgeon. Since there has been little study on these fish response to CBM water, it will probably have to wait until the fish come floating by belly up.
A friend with the Montana Fish Wildlife and Parks said that there has been no hatch of bass in the Tongue River Res for two years. It is uncretain why, but the 1600 gal per minute that Fidelity is dumping in the res as well as what the Decker coal mine is dumping (same CBM water)could have significance.

I will have to catch up on the other points latter. This should be a good discussion.
.
OH, Black Blade... catch em while you can.

Gold King who sleeps with the Silver Queen

Black Blade

(01/09/2003; 04:50:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93907)

Euro Markets Awash In Red

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Euro equities markets are not faring very well this morning.

- Black Blade

silvercollector

(01/09/2003; 04:51:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93908)

Zhisheng

Good morning.

Spirited chatter last night, I must admit I was involved in it. What the heck, you only die once!

Back to gold for the Rookie.

I see our friend 'Spot' took an early morning romp to within a couple dimes of 357, nice!

If you caught my little 325/328/330 review 2 or 3 days back I summarized the 6 month/8 month punching through of this resistance. It took several attempts.

So now we see another crack at 354/355 or is it now 356/358?

I believe this is attempt #4 (perhaps even #5) is a very short term; Dec. 18th if I recall.

I've got "all my ducks in a row" and am fully long. Why? Because we still have over 2 weeks until the 27th and I feel there will be one more 'gold-enticing incident'(aka a dollar 'screw-up') before UN declaration day.

This is speculation of course, not advice.

Black Blade

(01/09/2003; 05:41:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93909)

Re: Gold King

Let me get this straight. You are saying that the Tongue River on the eastern periphery is representative of the Powder River Basin? The Big Horn River is outside the Basin of course. The company that you mention (Fidelity Exploration/Redstone/Thunder Basin a division of Montana-Dakota Ute. � the local utility) has terminated drilling for the reasons I stated. Actually they acquired the offender. The Powder River is essentially a semi-dry gulch which makes it rather inhospitable to fish no matter how you slice it (no water flow for much of last year). The question is: does this "mineral rich" discharge (units were not stated?!) exceed background natural background levels and what effect that has on the fish? Considering that the snowmelt and perched water tables naturally leach the carbonate rock and caliche strata I would think this would be an important consideration. You may be interested in the ongoing study at Sheridan College with trout and CBM water. So far the results are quite encouraging (i.e. bigger fish). The study has evolved into considering the use of CBM water for "fish farming" due to nutrient enriching properties conducive for habitat of the fishes natural prey. Apparently the Decker Coal Mine is closing up according to those recently laid off who I have talked to and I am not aware of any discharge. However, there are numerous natural outcrops of coal seams all along the Tongue River and its confluences. As the point you try to make is in regard to a tiny sliver of the eastern most edge of the basin periphery and beyond to the northwest representing less than 1% of the PRB, I would suggest that you do a bit more research. Nice try, besides, I had already addressed this point so it is rather redundant. Besides, this discussion is taking a turn far outside the realm of topics appropriate for this forum unless otherwise granted by our host and moderator. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/09/2003; 06:20:06 MDT - Msg ID: 93910)

Breaking News - GM Takes A Whopping Loss

Blue Chip General Motors announced that their 2002 pension fund is underfunded to the tune of $19.3 Billion which will have to come out of earnings. Considering that they had about $10 Billion in Revenues this will obviously have a huge impact. They are reducing pension fund outlook and state that 2003 will be underfunded too. I guess Wall Street will reduce their reco to "Hold". Hmmm...

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/09/2003; 06:43:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93911)

Oil Up, UN Expected to Say Iraq Balky

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=I1RNMUZVJXLBCCRBAEZSFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=2015902
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices ended a three-day slump Thursday, supported by expectations that U.N. weapons inspectors could offer Washington fresh ammunition in its case for a war on Iraq. Gains were tempered by OPEC's decision to hold an emergency meeting this weekend to decide how much more to pump to compensate for export stoppages from a five-week-old strike in oil producer Venezuela. OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah said cartel members were still discussing how much oil is required to make up for the loss of 2.5 million barrels daily of exports from Venezuela due to the strike.

The Kicker:

OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah, who is also Qatar's oil minister, said major non-cartel producers would not be able to contribute to a rise in global supplies. "Unfortunately, we received a message from Russia, Mexico and Norway saying that they cannot increase their production," he told reporters in New Delhi at an industry conference.

Black Blade: Translation: No one has any spare capacity except Saudi, and that is still not enough to make up for the loss of Venezuela's 2.5 million bbl/day. In short � The emperor wears no clothes! Hmmm�

Pizz

(01/09/2003; 07:05:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93912)

Goldandsilver2002

The 354 mark is best explained by Jim Sinclair IMHO, and i quote him today:

"Gold

Take a look at the 9-minute bar chart on gold I offer you today. This time
9-minute period is my favorite for trading gold in the short-term. Look at
the "Battle at the Bridge" taking place at $354.50. We of course are the
Golden Knights of King Arthur (Gold Bullion). The black Knight protecting
the bridge for the collection of tolls on our pocketbooks is of course the
Gold Cartel and the Carry Trade. Let us not put any more pressure on the
gold producer hedgers as they have a large enough headache tonight. That
number you know is a mathematical deduction of the average point at which
all the gold spreads put on for derivative hedging in the last six years
all are under water. It is a number we developed here and published back in
2001. We should be complimented that the Exchange Stabilization Fund and
the Gold Cartel read and followed us. $354.50 is not a technical point as
such. It is extremely important to the gold derivative hedger community but
does not possess any technical capability to hold gold."

------------------

Some also say that 355 breaks a major downtrend line on the gold charts, but I felt that was done at 330.

Assuming Jim sinclair is right (and he appears to be more right than wrong lately by a longshot) we may get an acceleration of price once we break thru.

Do your own due diligence, and be prepared for a lot of volitility. The gold shorts are not going to just roll over, especially in the stocks, cause there has been little short covering (and that is why I think the stocks have been underperforming). They are making one last bet that something positive other than war will come out of the ME.

Very, very few, realize that there is not that much war premium in the gold price. If by some miracle we do not get war and do not get a major terror attack, we'll get a downdraft in PM's, but more than likely from a higher level that will be just a correction from a short term overbought situation.

The major problem, as we know, is the fiat debt mess, and I do not see any easy way out but more pain and higher PM prices.

The physical gold door is ratcheting shut, with not too much time to slide under before it closes with reasonable prices.

Pizz

Christian

(01/09/2003; 07:21:54 MDT - Msg ID: 93913)

Credit contraction deflation

We have accumulated to much debt, everybody wants someone ese to pay it. Some people have lost their job, some will soon, and many will work for less, all made possible by credit contraction deflation. The FED is buying 46% of the dollar value traded on the NYSE. Yet it is not enough to bail out GM's pension fund.GM, in their accounting they record a gain to earnings estimated earnings when in reality it is a loss. Their accounting method is a joke and so is their bottom line called shareholder equity. If they had some honesty they would include their off balance sheet gold loans as expenses. Most companies, most states and the federal government use the same accounting rules (tricks) in order to attempt to show a positive shareholder equity when in reality it is negative. Gold in deflation helps you to have something in hand when all paper values are worthless. It is funny how banks can't bank with gold, nor can they bank without it. Isn't it funny how a super power can't pay for oil with real money. What a joke. Instead we have to nationalize it. Used to be social security was a pay as you go program, now it is a gold short program. Got to raid the lock box to reduce the deficit. What a joke.

Belgian

(01/09/2003; 07:39:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93914)

@ Hoi Topaz # 93891

The reason why I think, South Arica will be pulled into the euro-camp is because of the changing currency balances knocking on our doors. S.A. needs a market for its agricultural products. If your rand is rising against the dollar because of your underground wealth...and a new Physical Goldmarket has emerged...Can South Africa sell its products to the dollar-block ? Will S.A. sell its nationalized Gold for weak dollars or strong euro ?
We are at the early stages of a fierce fight for currency-supremacy. Gold exchange reserves and the two ($/�) different currency concepts will decide on future trade-flows ! The strengthening of the euro must happen in function of shifting trade-flows that must underbuild that strengthening. The trade (China) that is lost on the declining dollar must find compensation in the euro-block trade.
Euroland starts with its 500 million people, internal expansion and slowly expands beyond these borders. For this reason I think S.A. will change course as the UK will.

*** If *** Euroland succeeds in setting up this Physical Gold Free Market...goldclaims and underground gold (deep storage) will seek euro instead of dollars.

Mbeki probably went to London about the Zimbabwe problems ?
UK compensations for expropriation of white's land.

Cometose

(01/09/2003; 07:42:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93915)

(No Subject)

spot's a little frisky this morning!

a nation of one

(01/09/2003; 07:56:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93916)

larouche

It is true that bubbles can be created -or cultivated- intentionally. There is no doubt that the Fed and its companion organizations have the wherewithal to become involved in this. It is also true that throughout the past five thousand years, the value of individual dwellings have typically declined with age, and that only in a few periods have they increased, and that therefore this era is not typical. Further, a good idea can come from anywhere, and Larouch can be as right as anyone. But his method is more inclined to incite fear than to inform, and this is possibly his intention. For he is politically motivated. He is on the make. He chooses words and phrases, and explanations, for the purpose of enhancing his personally desired effects, instead of others which would be clearer and more accurate. For this reason his work has some of the qualities of a highly individualized style of propaganda, even though much of what he says may be firmly based in reality. If he would say the same things, but choose the right words, you would still get much the same picture, but it would be a lot less exciting. And to be strictly correct, he would have to rewrite more than three quarters of everything he says. Since he has a political organization, he perceives an interest in motivating people emotionally so that some of them will get in line with his cause. One general guide that I find useful is, whenever I feel that my emotional buttons are being pushed, I remind myself that they are my buttons, and I ask myself what is that other person trying to accomplish for himself by pushing them?

Cometose

(01/09/2003; 08:01:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93917)

volume and open interest

Yesterday and the day before the Volume was about the same ; both days the volume was higher than it has been since thanksgiving...yesterday the Open Interest via the graph began closing /declining . Now the trading is brisk and Gold is trading in a 2 dollar range ....for the last hour....must be an eerie feeling in the trading pits.....kind of like the low rumble roar one hears and /or sees at Kennedy Space Center prior to launch......it appears as the floor on GOLD had been rising for the past week........RUN SPOT RUN....JUMP SPOT JUMP!!!!

Cometose

(01/09/2003; 08:15:32 MDT - Msg ID: 93918)

volume and open interest

figures related to April Contract

Cometose

(01/09/2003; 08:21:17 MDT - Msg ID: 93919)

late day rally

Looking at a 60 minute chart of what happened yesterday, one can see that the buying hit vertical in the last hour of the day .....Maybe they will do it again today ....could be a very golden finish.......

Mr Gresham

(01/09/2003; 08:31:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93920)

nation of one

What a great statement in your reminder to separate the information from the propaganda. I try to learn what I can from each person I encounter, but I am too often caught up in the excitement. As my years increase, and I fall for less and less, I must ask myself, "Is it wisdom (at last!), or is it just exhaustion?" Since there's only one of me, and no chance for a do-over, I'll just have to accept, and enjoy, the result, whatever it comes from. Can you see gold fitting in here somewhere? ("I'm here, still here, after you've burned through all your sillinesses...")

Zhisheng

(01/09/2003; 08:39:08 MDT - Msg ID: 93921)

Fanny and Freddie [Trojan (193893),a nation of one (93916)]

Good morning to you Silvercollector.

Just read the LaRouche article cited by Trojan about Fanny and Freddy. Agree with "a nation of one" that the author has an ax to grind.

But... The figures certainly make one take notice. Either the mortgages holders must be given some help when comes the inevitable collapse of the Real Estate Bubble, or Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac must be bailed out by the Fed---the alternative appears to be systemic financial collapse, which is unacceptable. Both possibilities involve increase of the money supply with attendent weakening of the dollar and increase of the gold price.

I have read that Fannie and Freddie, though private corporations, are still insured somehow by the US Government. Can anyone tell provide information on this?

Leigh

(01/09/2003; 09:08:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93922)

Larouche Article

My feeling, upon reading the Larouche article, is that Mr. Larouche is suffering from "provincialism." He is a resident of Northern Virginia, and he is making a target of the housing market in that area, which is not necessarily representative of the nation as a whole.

Sure, there are tons of McMansions in Northern Virginia, and many are ridiculously overpriced. But there are also new solidly-built homes, older homes, farmhouses, and lots of other types of homes available. If you live a little farther away from the city and are willing to drive, you can find bargains. You don't have to buy a McMansion.

The kind of people who purchase these homes are very often the same ones who buy into tech stocks and other bubble instruments. They are often lacking in discernment about true value. They're going to get hurt, as Mr. Larouche said. But here's my point: Nobody is forcing them to pay ridiculous prices and purchase poor quality homes, and this situation doesn't necessarily exist all over the country. The Washington, D.C. area is an extreme example.

ElGordo

(01/09/2003; 09:09:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93923)

UNREAL! CNBC now says rally started by "mistake"

Here we go again, CNBC reports that a broker accidently pushed
the wrong button and entered a huge trade at the open and now that has jumped market. Who are these guys?

Cavan Man

(01/09/2003; 09:26:20 MDT - Msg ID: 93924)

US Equities Markets

Churning like butter; poor sham!

Cometose

(01/09/2003; 10:00:52 MDT - Msg ID: 93925)

(No Subject)

I agree with Mr. Larouche's figures which indicate that too much money has been allowed into a system pricing goods....and with that increase the increase in money has caused the prices to rise .......I also agree that America has enslaved themselves in order to keep up and in the present context of a prolonged economic slump , the escalating spiral is going to end ; Japan may be a good "type" to look forward toward what may happen here... with the unraveling economy . There is also a demographic problem.....regarding baby boomers purchasing en masse primary and secondary homes .....for which there is no future market in the diminishing (smaller) future generations. In the area in which I live the prices of housing is outlandish ..... It was recommended to me that I sell my home several years ago.....and I did (in 98) and have been renting since....Not only are the housing prices coming down....somewhat......what is available to rent is becoming more affordable....Next month I will move into a place that has 40% more square footage for 15% more rent .
There is probably less of a market for these larger rentals....however 2 years ago ....this was not available.
I don't mow my yard ....I dont pay taxes ....I don't pay the maintenance , and I don't get the interest tax deduction......However I do write off a healthy portion of the rent on my business expence for a home office and running my business out of my home.....it has been romored that we are in for a bout of depression.....In times like these it is a wise course to dump the balast...because it is very likely that markets in overpriced home market ( above 500K ) is going to take a severe dive because of the excesses people have driven themselves too....
SOMEOME once told a parable about a wise man building his HOUSE ON A ROCK.......that holds true for building a strong spiritual foundation.( this is the fabric lasting relationships are made out of ) and a strong financial foundation ( work ethic and business acumen for investing).....He also talked about the consequences of building on sand....

If your home is an investment , selling HIGH should not be and emotional issue... this may be your last chance..
someone said we were going to have deflation......Is that why GOLD IS GOING UP....

Funny how IBM announces a 19 billion shortfall on Pension funding (Wall ST epidemic unfolds) I am sorry GM ....and Wall Street has a party.....while the rest of the world is running for cover.......maybe they put to much PROZAC in the WATER COOLER>>>>..

MR SANDMAN , BUILD ME A DREAM........sounds like ....smells like .....ALAN GREENSPAN..... ALAN SANDSPAN........from the SANDBOX COLLECTION.....a commemorative doll coming to a retailer near you for CHRISTMAS 2003

R Powell

(01/09/2003; 10:04:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93926)

ElGordo // market rally

CNBC also reported the rally may have been sparked by a huge volume of S+P index buying. There was also mention of this possibly being financed by the huge selling of ten year treasuries. I wonder who is doing this as the immediate notice (because of the huge volume) increases the possibility (imho) of a large player as opposed to many smaller ones. If correct, there are not many with enough financial clout to qualify as suspects. The Hobbits, as a group, have enough but this is not their style.
I'm still impressed with the strength of gold during these bear market rallies. Before the breech of 330, the downturns were deeper and lasted longer. The next attempt at a sustained close over the mid 350s level will be, I believe, the fourth such try in a very short period of time. Some of the technical guys opine that the fourth try is often sussessful. Now, wouldn't that be nice. Gold still looks stronger than silver and perhaps what's now resistence in gold will have to become support before sister silver can clear five bucks.
Gold is much more of an indictor of the future state of the economy than is silver. Perhaps this explains the difference for the current situation. It's all good for this old trader, I'm long on both.
Any thoughts?
Rich

Pizz

(01/09/2003; 10:14:43 MDT - Msg ID: 93927)

Bonds, Stocks, and silver

Webfn pit trader reported that there has been a very large drop in bond futures this am. Has traders concerned.

Stocks seem to be getting a bit of an upsurge - money coming out of bonds???? Reverse safe haven? More like thrashing around trying to find somewhere other than gold to park money.

And then there are reports on other boards that Comex raised margins on silver this am. I don't trade the futures so I haven't confirmed, but if so. . . . these guys are getting just a bit brazen, you'd think with all the manipulation and market pumping these guys all have get out of jail cards.

If anyone can confirm the silver margin increase I'd appreciate it, cause the only reason I can see would be a feeble attempt to discourage longs which would be just a bit strange at near record 20 year lows unless there isn't too much metal available (smile).

Pizz

R Powell

(01/09/2003; 10:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93928)

Pizz // Sinclair's $354.50 // questions

Concerning Sinclair's $354.50 price trigger, you quoted Sinclair.....

"That number you know is a mathematical deduction of the average point at which all the gold spreads put on for derivative hedging in the last six years all are under water."

Can you help me get a better grip on this concept?

My understanding of hedging is that it is a dynamic, ongoing, constantly changing process. As such, any mathematically deduced average point would be constantly changing either up or down as positions are added or offset, no? Wouldn't determining one's position be useful only as a very short-lived indicator? Sinclair says this pertains to positions accumulated over six years. If this number was given in 2001, how can it remain relevant at all?

Do you have any idea how this was determined? I can quess that it was, at the time of it's determination, the projected POG at which all positions offset most nearly at zero, that is, no gain and no loss. Does this make sense? Is POG above this the point where paper losses start building?

I'm also still searching for a reasonable definition of "notional" value and an explanation of how it is determined in the various claims that state a derivatives meltdown is unavoidable due to the excessive notional value of gold derivatives. Does notional value include past short sales? Does it net out offsetting positions?
Any thoughts? Anyone?
Thanks
Rich

Cometose

(01/09/2003; 10:39:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93929)

@PIZZ

Margin on silver is 1350 / as of this time it has not gone up today and there's not pending notice so far on that according to Lind Waldock.

Christian

(01/09/2003; 10:47:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93930)

market's

Large bond holders want to sell and establish a short position on the stock market. To short a stock the idea is to (think) of buying high and selling low.---People need to realize that M3 growth is not caused by the FED printing money- but rather increasing debt to increase money supply. Most of the time when new debt is taken on the borrower will take a small part of that and turn it into cash. Most people deposit their pay check into their checking account and take out some cash. Paper (print) and coin money supply and check book money used for paying bills is a small % of outstanding debt. To pay down old debt you need to borrow ever more new debt. It is like filling a 50 gallon water tank with 1 pint cup full of water.-- Fannie + Freddie are FED owned and controlled corporations. They are DTC chartered.

R Powell

(01/09/2003; 11:05:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93931)

Silver market margins

Pizz, I saw the same rumor at gold-eagle this morning and talked to a broker about it. He had neard nothing but also said that when margin requirements are changed, the existing positions are grandfathered. I would expect gold margins to increase before silver but any market that starts moving violently in either direction may (probably should) be subject to margin increases.

Right now a Comex gold contract requires $1300 margin and $1000 maintenance or $2300. Anything over a $10 move against the position requires more money unless other positions are positive to cover. It is based on a net of futures and options. Scary and dangerous and not always entirely above board on a short term basis.
Rich

Pizz

(01/09/2003; 11:13:48 MDT - Msg ID: 93932)

Rich

In a very broad concept, I'll try to explain the 354 figure as I have interpretted from Sinclair.

As gold was driven down from 400 to under 300, I believe Mr. Sinclair has estimated that the average short derivative price for the paper shorts and hedgers is about 354. This makes sense. Even though gold went quite aways below 300, shorting at the bottom would not have been as prevalent as say from 400 down to 350. So an average short price for these bums at about 30% of the range (400-265) from the top at 400 is logical.

Mr. Sinclair has also managed derivative and hedging risk programs, which basically state that when your hedge program starts to go against you, as in prices going up while you are short, you have to start covering your exposure with either hard metal (or paper equivalents that are supposed to be able to deliver).

It's basically the same as being short a stock for say 10,000 shares at 20 and the price has gone to 10. Most would cover, but the gold shorts didn't, for reasons we suspect. So lets say your're still stupid and are holding the short as the price starts to rise. The risk control programs would say that in order not to lose money on the position, you would need to cover 5% of the position for every point up, til you broke even if the price went to 30.

That example is straight line. A more probable risk control program for gold would be to start to cover 1% or so for every 5% increase (starting at say 265 on gold) with the cover percentage increasing more in line with an accelerating curve after a certain point.

To be a bit more realistic, if you're a hedger, and you expected the bottom for gold to be 180 or so, you'd probably set your risk control to cover only a small percentage of your short position for the typical bear market ralley's you have to expect. So when gold hit 265 and now has bounced back to 350 or so, you may only need to cover, say 15 to 20 % of your position.

But once gold breaks 350 and keeps going up, the programs have to start covering at a faster clip, cause the programs are saying you're initial assuption gets more incorrect the higher the price goes. This is also why you defend certain price levels, because a big spike blows the whole system.

Another question would be at what ceiling the risk control programs have on average. I think Mr. Sinclair figures that at 512 gold, these short positions will have been covered, and that is probably the average break even point for all the programs.

If my interpretation is correct, even at 400 gold, the shorts are still profitable, since their programs have had them covering part of their positions at a profit, but after 350, the covering has to accelerate.

Hope this helps, and please understand that I've not seen Mr. Sinclair get into this much detail, so they are my interpretaions based upon what I would expect to see in a risk control program if I was reviewing it from a financial control perspective. Also keep in mind that the programs are very complex, as well as the derivative structures, and averages and price levels discussed may not be accurate or even revelant, cause there is virtually no transparancy in the reporting of these things.

Pizz

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(01/09/2003; 11:16:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93933)

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Cometose

(01/09/2003; 11:17:02 MDT - Msg ID: 93934)

Bond Markets

Huge drops in the BOND Market are a BAD OMEN and precursor.....They were apparent in DECEMBER.....
and it has been recenly stated they were prevalent during the weeks prior to OCTOBER 1987.....

What is that sucking sound I hear........that's the sound of an international wire transfer and round corner trip into ............ .......???????? naw.....could it be........GOLD??????????? keep your eyes peeled for that GOLD MOON RISING!!!!

Cometose

(01/09/2003; 11:31:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93935)

Rhodium

is having a nice day .....up $60.00 to $500 .

Anyone , here at the forum know what it is used for...?

It's getting more smokey in here??

Sierra Madre

(01/09/2003; 11:33:27 MDT - Msg ID: 93936)

Topaz: your post re Deep Storage gold #93891

I think you may have something there - the Deep Storage refers to gold in S.A. mines. It's just an intuition, but it sounds plausible to me.

Ever since the whole show of Boycot of South Africa until and End to Apartheid, I felt very strongly that it was all a ploy to weaken and destroy the White leadership of an important country with "too much power and wealth".

Remember that years ago, the argument against allowing the price of gold to rise, was that "it would benefit S.A. and the Soviet Union." Soviet Union has been disposed of, ditto S.A.

Remeber also, S.A. had (maybe still has?) nuclear weapons. And the enormous wealth of the country, under white leadership, made it necessary to destroy it. In order to take over the wealth, under a necessarily weak and chaotic black mis-government. Standard procedure for empires.

Nobody in politics really cared for the Apartheid question, of course. What counted, was to bring S.A. to its knees, in order to take possession of its wealth. This has been done.

You have to accept that TPTB are extremely clever and far-sighted.

So, does the US Treasury have gold? Under this scenario, plenty of it! All that S.A. gold is - we need not know the precise mechanism (financial, treaties) - under U.S. control.

If the present rise in the price of gold bankrupts the S.A. mining companies who are heavily short, who will the mines belong to? The BANKS. Can you say, JPM?

All is speculation. We'll have to watch to find out in the coming years.

Sierra

Cometose

(01/09/2003; 11:34:13 MDT - Msg ID: 93937)

gold

jump spot , jump!!!!!!!!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/09/2003; 11:49:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93938)

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sector

(01/09/2003; 11:56:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93939)

@RPowell Sir PIZZ has it pretty good...

...but there's a catch on the "Short covering rally" thingyAll these shorts come in different flavors. There's the bullion banks, gold producers and just plain specs plus some other mutant species.

The big bullion bank shorts got that way through borrowing from the US Treasury [Treas. denies this but the FOMC transcripts say otherwise].

It's these gold loans that aren't notional values--they are real commitments to return the gold in physical form because the banks sold it all to create their gold derivative books. The OCC reports their totals and maturitie dates by year [<1 year, 1-5 years, >5 years. JPM has $41 billion in real metal to return to the guys at Treasury. If they borrowed the ounces and then sold it at $255 per ounce they have to go into the market and buy the borrowed ounces back at today's prices which would result in a tidy loss.

But here is the catch, what if the government says that JPM doesn't have to repay their gold loans? No repay...no exposure...no exposure...no short covering rally because the bullion baks doesn't really care. BTW the government said yesterday that the oil shorts didn't have to deliver back into the SPR what they had borrowed and gave them until September 2003. It's the same thing.

So the guys hoping for a skyrocket short-covering rally are going to be disappointed. But all isn't lost because the gold price still rises for the following reason.

The only force holding gold down is official selling. The central banks have sold 16,000 tonnes and just can't tolerate losing any more gold through the constant process of selling. Even the Swiss are balking at future gold sales thanks to the wonderful work there by Ferdi Lipps to wake up the Swiss people. The cbs must get to a point where they can stop selling their gold. They are retreating and trying desperatly to get to that point.

There is only one remedy to central bank required selling of their gold--it must be permitted to rise in price to its equilibrium level. It will do just that under the control of diminished central bank sales. There just won't be a violent short-covering rally by the bullion banks. The manipulators will see to it that ythere aren't any conspicuous spikes either because THAT would attract too many more speculator sharks.

There WILL be a constant buying out of forwards by all the other shorters who don't have a government safety net. Newcrest is one, Barrick is another. That buying pressure combined with the reduced central bank sales are the principal drivers we see in today's upward marching gold price. There are no mainstream gold "analysts" who have figured this out. If they HAVE they are keeping it to themselves and are buying the dips on the sly.

The non-bullion bank shorts are in serious trouble and can only escape by closing out their gold short hedges. So its only the bullion banks that will be rescued from their original loans from the Treasury.

Sinclair is a master trader and nimble in-and-outer. I'm just not that smart or quick. If he thinks $354 is a magic number that's probably good. I prefer to buy once [During a deep dip] and then work on my six-iron.

A massive $50 billion golden bailout of the bullion banks by the Treasury may never actually be revealed�they will just keep playing and running the cover-up with their Fed buddys.

Zhisheng

(01/09/2003; 12:41:49 MDT - Msg ID: 93940)

"Deep Storage" by Sierra Madre (#93891)

Sierra: if it were all planned ahead of time, your scenario is quite plausible---what a world we live in! See if I have it right:

1) Bullion banks borrow gold from central banks at low interest, selling it on the gold market driving the price of gold down, and loaning out what they receive for a much higher interest rate than that which they had to pay for the gold;

2) With the price of gold dropping, some mining companies hedge (further bringing down the price of gold), and others go to the banks for loans;

3) The banks loan (perhaps some of the money they received from selling their gold) to the mining companies, but only under condition that those mining companies hedge (go short) gold for a long period of time, ostensibly to provide loan collateral, but really to drive the price of gold down still further and put the mining companies in harms way should gold spike up;

4) When gold finally spikes up due to weakness in fiat currencies, the heavily hedged mines go belly up or surrender their financial sovereignty (including their gold reserves) to the banks, who now have the gold to return to the central banks;

5) Of course none of this could work without reasonably good timing, which would require connivance of the central banks. In the end the central banks, or perhaps the financial giants standing behind them, get their gold back and maybe a bit more besides;

6) Now the powers behind the cental banks and the bullion banks have the gold, currencies are weakening, and there is a public clamor to obtain gold or have currencies backed by gold.

Just a scenario of course, but fascinating!

Cavan Man

(01/09/2003; 12:44:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93941)

sector....put that #6 aside....

If no return of metal then, no gold cover (clause). That's not good news for the green paper.

Pizz

(01/09/2003; 12:45:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93942)

Sector

Thanks for the add on. I agree completely. The physical gold shorts and the paper gold shorts have the same basic problem, but they will be worked out in different ways.

I too, do not expect a gold short covering rally, though if Sinclair is right, the move from 400 to 500+ may be fairly rapid as things accelerate, and we will probably see a gold stock short cover that could be rather dramatic. At 500 gold you could see a 10 bagger in the pennies (most are dimes or quarters now), and a two to three bagger in the PM stocks trading now between 3 and 12 bucks, IMHO.

I tend to be like you, I only move in and out of paper at what I consider extreme moves. I prefer to have core positions and add to them on large corrections. Don't really want the tax liability either until I feel the bull is about 75% done, and we're a ways away from that.

thanks again,

Pizz

R Powell

(01/09/2003; 14:19:18 MDT - Msg ID: 93943)

Pizz and Sector

No meltdown but upward price pressure Thanks guys for the thoughts.

Sector, could it be then that the (or one) notional value is the actual price collected by the bullion banks when the leased gold was sold? There would be different prices as the POG changed over the time period during which the metal was sold. The dollar amount needed for payback would then change daily but would equal the current POG X amount of gold outstanding. We could call this the notional debt outstanding which would not equal the dollar amount collected when selling.

Now if the bank put an open purchase order in for the weight amounts of gold sold during different price periods, they could cover wherever they wanted.
As an example, if they shorted 10 tonnes at $360/ounce years ago, then an order to buy 10 tonnes at $355/ounce would cover the leased payback at a profit. Covering at break even or even at a slight loss wouldn't hurt them either assuming that the monies received for the original sale was invested wisely. This is not hard-to-do strategy. Simply sell for X dollars, wait for POG to drop a little and then place an equivalent buy order to cover. I'm quessing here but there are any number of hedging procedures that would limit risk.

Let me add to sector's comments that these lease-sales (gold carry trade) pushed the POG down and created an extremely profitable and hard to reverse downward trend. However, once reversed, the covering involved will now keep constant pressure to the upside. Perhaps no derivatives meltdown but an extra force to add to the list of reasons why POG should trend upward for some time.
May an extra Force be with you.
Rich

Pizz

(01/09/2003; 14:51:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93944)

Rich

On notional value, you've got the right idea. The bulk of the 41 billion in notional value has been invested somewhere in the case of borrowing gold and selling it, and all they are really out is what they lost on the spread between the stike price and the price at exercise.

If they are naked short, the bulk of the notional values wash out.

If gold spikes 1000, though, you'd have about two times the loss of the short notional value (say 1000 -350 = 700 bucks per contract.

And that is why you may not see any spikes, cause they will defend all the way up taking more smaller losses and trying to stem the tide. All Greenie has to do is keep dropping rates and buying bonds to force the bond market up, and the bullion banks can offset their gold deriviative losses with bond gains.

Now, do you see why we get so much negative press. A gold rush in this very thin market for gold and gold shares is a tipping point. It's also why they are afraid of spot.

Delicate tightroping act and there are a bunch of wire shakers out there - all of our own making.

I think they may be able to keep gold from spiking, but the sleeper is silver. Silver hasn't got the above ground supplies available to smash a spike. And if silver goes, gold will be right behind. May be wrong, but I think a silver rush right now would put as big a monkey wrench in the cabals plans as a major terror attack.

Time will tell. The shorts have got to be having major stomach problems over this and/or be drugged up to the eyeballs to survive. When this much money is on the line, right along with most of our ways of life, the stress has got to be horrendous.

Pizz

Pizz

TownCrier

(01/09/2003; 15:15:21 MDT - Msg ID: 93945)

Politically correct delivery, and political/popular reality

From President Duisenberg's press conference following today's meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB. (No change in key rates, by the way.)
R.
----------

PRESS QUESTION:
...what sort of marketing efforts are you making so that the share of the euro in the worldwide reserves of central banks increases to euro holdings of up to maybe 40%.

DUISENBERG:
The answer to that is that we are more or less indifferent; it is not our aim to have the world invest more in official reserves in euro. We will see what market forces achieve, but it is to be expected, to the extent that the international use of the euro increases � and it is a slow process � that trade between the euro area and the rest of the world will increasingly be quoted and paid in euro, and that the need for the rest of the world to hold more of its reserves in euro will increase. But that is indeed a very slow process that may take decades.

[That is one of the finest examples of tact you will see today. Of course Euroland would enjoy at this time a healthy boost to the international reserve position in euros; and of course there may be a sudden precipitation via downfall of the dollar... BUT... you will not see these realities so publically discussed by officials at this level of operation. Pres Duisenberg said fairly enough all he could say on the subject in the interest of fulfilling his primary obligation for ensuring Euroland price stability. On another note, this additional line of questioning is worth passing along.]

QUESTION:
Mr. Duisenberg, every month we hear you call on governments to intensify the need for structural reform and yet we see Germany and other governments still moving very slowly on this. I wonder, bearing in mind you do say this month after month � this is clearly a very important thing as far as growth of the economy in the euro zone goes � whether you feel frustrated at the pace of reform.

DUISENBERG:
Not frustrated, but disappointed.

QUESTION:
Any hope for improvement?

DUISENBERG:
Oh yes. Hope for improvement, because in the end the people will not accept that there is not a greater impulse or drive for reform to bring down this high level of unemployment which we know has persisted for I do not know how many years. And if governments do not follow up on their original broad intentions as, for example, made known in the Lisbon declaration, so those governments who do not live up to that commitment will be punished, not by me but by the people.

sector

(01/09/2003; 15:33:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93946)

@RPowell The Key in all this is to remember the bullion bank...

...borrowed a quantity at a then current market price......and they [Under non-fraudlent conditions] must deliver back that quantity.

The extra force is actually quite strong because there was so much forward selling by miners that is still hasn't been covered. Barrick's purported hedge closures are just options. They need copious amounts of cash to excercize those options do they have that cash?

The generally accepted amount of producer forwards is still plus or minus 3,000 tonnes...just hanging out there...like a giant lampery eel.

Now we have a clue as to the "Mysterious", abyssally challenged Barrick share price...just mouldering away.

Can't wait to see their latest Quarterly nums.

And�ril

(01/09/2003; 16:09:28 MDT - Msg ID: 93947)

The Ramallah travels of Mrs. Duisenberg, meeting Arafat

This fine woman shows her good head and heart. Sincerity is not in question. Timing also does not seem accidental with husband seen clearly now lending intellectual and moral support. With six months prior to passing the baton, a good play of political capital for Middle-east relations.

Euro scores a point.

On the dollar side, Mrs. Greenspan is seen wooing....... anyone????

ElGordo

(01/09/2003; 17:11:07 MDT - Msg ID: 93948)

R Powell

I could not believe my ears this morningMaria was on CNBC reporting that a trader had accidently
pushed a button putting an extra "0" on a futures trade.
That seemed to start a huge "short squeeze rally" with stops
being taken out. When you get those weird charts where the
market zooms up all day, like on rocket fuel, the stops the
shorts put on at each level get triggered. The boyz were trying
to shake out the shorts today.

Even retail stocks were up and the talking heads were even commenting on how that was odd, considering all the weak
earnings in retail. If the average investor knew how these
markets are manipulated, they would never play again.

Gold showed great strength in the face of all this rally nonsense.
I would hazard a guess, that profit taking might take place
Friday as who wants to take the risk over the weekend.
If we get a cold snap oil will help boost gold.

Sierra Madre

(01/09/2003; 17:33:44 MDT - Msg ID: 93949)

Zhisheng: you appreciate Poetry - here is something

Kipling's poetry, The Fifth River of Eden. Sometimes poetry can tell us things indirectly, by appealing to the higher faculties of man.
(The presentation may be somewhat garbled in posting)

WHEN first by Eden Tree,
The Four Great Rivers ran.
To each was appointed a Man
Her Prince and Ruler to be.

But after this was ordained,
(The ancient legends tell),
There came dark Israel,
For whom no River remained.

Then He Whom the Rivers obey
Said to him: fling on the ground
A handful of yellow clay,
And a Fifth Great River shall run,
Mightier than these Four,
In secret the Earth around;
And Her secret evermore,
Shall be shown to thee and thy Race.�

So it was said and done.
And, deep in the veins of Earth,
And, fed by a thousand springs
That comfort the market-place,
Or sap the power of Kings,
The Fifth Great River had birth,
Even as it was foretold�
The Secret River of Gold!

And Israel laid down
His sceptre and his crown
To brood on that River bank,
Where the waters flashed and sank,
And burrowed in earth and fell,
And bided a season below,
For reason that none might know,
Save only Israel.

He is Lord of the Last�
The Fifth, most wonderful, Flood.
He hears Her thunder past
And Her Song is in his blood.
He can foresay: �She will fall,�
For he knows which fountain dries;
Behind which desert-belt
A thousand leagues to the South.
He can foresay: �She will rise.�
He knows what far snows melt:
Along what mountain-wall
A thousand leagues to the North.
He snuffs the coming drouth
As he snuffs the coming rain,
He knows what each will bring forth,
And turns it to his gain.

A Ruler without a Throne,
A Prince without a Sword,
Israel follows his quest.
In every land a guest,
Of many lands a lord,
In no land King is he.
But the Fifth Great River keeps
The secret of Her deeps
For Israel alone,
As it was ordered to be.

erayboy

(01/09/2003; 17:38:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93950)

Reasons Why GOLD Will Go UP

Here they are:

1. FED promise of 24/7 dollar printing.
2. Never-ending ME war about to start.
3. FUNDS just started buying into the best performing segment for past two years.
4. China opened GOLD ownership to individuals.
5. DINAR coming online this year.
6. PUBLIC still unaware of precious metals.
7. STOCK earnings/warnings coming out.
8. Supply shortfall.
9. Most knowledgeable PROFESSIONALS (the MINERS) have cut back on hedged positions.
10. CRB hitting higher highs.
11. Record short position being squeezed hard.
12. Insufficient COMEX stock to meet anticipated FEB delivery.
13. FED-speak playing up GOLD's role in monetary affairs.
14. Increased demand from JAPAN.
15. PIMCO-speak has shined onto GOLD
16. Prechter-speak has dunned GOLD
17. UN Blix found IRAQ violated sanctions - importing missile engines
18. Open interest on FEB GOLD is 140,000 contracts(14,000,000 oz) and COMEX stockpile is 2,000,000 -- deliveries may cause COMEX sellers to BUY SPOT to cover
19. GOLD remains a shunned relic -- it is NOT overbought
20. GOLD is in an accumulation stage wherein the BIG/SMART money is buying on every dip -- not possible to fall even 10% - rising floor under GOLD
21. Oil keeps rising - world economy will slow even further and faster
22. Terrorism continues unchecked - Al Qaeda not stopped
23. OPEC wants GOLD and EUROs for oil, not dollars
24. Pak-India heating up

And, maybe the best reason:

Higher HIGHS ... Higher LOWS

Rock

(01/09/2003; 17:43:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93951)

erayboy

I like that! Good work.

Pizz

(01/09/2003; 18:17:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93952)

ElGordo

Regarding your reported glitch in the futures order this am.

May have been reported that way, but the ESF and/or their designated representative(s) (JPM/Goldman???) are having one heck of a time covering their interventions. Steady, consistant BUYERS of stock in volume are just not there, so when out of the blue they ramp up the futures (and they do it at consistant times) it becomes pretty obvious.

All the big money players know the technical aspects of the market, and it will take more than one or two bits of positive news for anyone with any common sense to try to bust these markets back up thru the neckline of the largest head and shoulders formations in the history of markets. Especially with PE ratio's just as high as the top of the bubbles.

On top of that, the VIX volitility indicator sit's at 26 and change. The sell off that started right before 911 started at a 21 or so VIX, and last summer the sell off started at 20 or so.

Looks like they're trying to suck as much money into the markets right now so as to have a positive January effect, which in the past was "as January goes, so goes the year".
Well, as they ramp up the markets as best they can with the liquidity the FED is providing, and a portion of the more massive amounts that are coming out of bonds and the dollar, they will probably have the VIX down around 20 or so again, which means we be heading down again and in a big way, taking out all the lows so far. All this should happen in the next week or so, right before the Iraq deadline.

Notice also how we start to get a bit of positive war news about everytime they try to push the markets back up. Now we have the British verbally softening their stance to give inspectors more time. Nothing like going to war on an advertised time schedule. Must make our soldiers real comfortable.

Enough rambling, keep buyin' the yellow and white stuff, casue business isn't going to get any better for the next few years.

Pizz

El Gringo

(01/09/2003; 18:26:03 MDT - Msg ID: 93953)

Down Spot Down.........

The gold chart has formed a classic pattern that says there will soon be a sizable fall in the price before the uptrend is resumed. Gung Ho rantings will not alter this occurence.
At this moment aircraft from the USS Abraham Lincoln are preparing to drop practice bombs on Australian soil starting January 16th before leaving for the Middle East. Why is the US withholding pertinent information from the UN Inspection team? This information could lead the Inspectors to a cache of WMD. Could it be that the Iraq oil is more important than the lives of the Iraq people.

ElGordo

(01/09/2003; 18:40:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93954)

Breaking news on alert net- EIA says OPEC can't fill deficit

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N09333302WASHINGTON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - An OPEC decision to increase oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) would make "a dent" in offsetting some of crude exports lost from Venezuela due to a workers strike, the head of the Energy Information Administration said Thursday.

OPEC is scheduled to meet this weekend in Vienna to vote on raising output between 1 million and 1.5 million bpd to make up the drop in crude shipments from Venezuela -- the world's fifth biggest oil exporter.

"Clearly we've lost roughly 2.5 million barrels a day to the world market from Venezuela, so any additional oil (from OPEC) would offset some of that," said EIA Administrator Guy Caruso.

Speaking to reporters at the U.S. Energy Department's headquarters, Caruso said, "It certainly would make a big dent" in the lost Venezuelan shipments if OPEC boosted output by 1.5 million barrels, but added there was a need for more crude.

"Obviously, if they (OPEC members) want to make a big impact, (pump) more than that," he said.

He pointed out that any new OPEC oil could take up to 45 days to reach U.S. shores.

However, Caruso said an OPEC production increase would free up gasoline and heating oil stored in Europe, which could quickly be shipped to the U.S. market.

He also said short-haul oil suppliers in Africa would be in a position to quickly ship their crude to the United States if OPEC raised output.

Amy Jaffe, associate director of the energy program at Rice University's James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy, said that an OPEC decision to increase production would not likely result in many new barrels, because the cartel was already pumping way above its quota.

"There is a little bit of a disconnect between the way the market is interpreting an OPEC production increase and the reality, which is that OPEC is already producing huge amounts of oil that wasn't completely reported in the market," Jaffe said Thursday at a Caspian oil conference sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

She said Saudi Arabia, which has the most unused production capacity within OPEC, doesn't have much surplus output capacity for the immediate term and maybe has room to pump an additional 500,000 barrels a day in the short-term.

"So we're not going to see a new 2 million barrels a day from Saudi Arabia," she said.

Some U.S. lawmakers have urged the Bush administration to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a way to relieve the crude supply crunch caused by the Venezuelan crisis.

However, the White House reiterated on Thursday that it has no plans to tap the 599-million-barrel emergency stockpile.

U.S. oil prices in New York gained $1.43 to settle at $31.99 a barrel because of the White House comments and traders' fears of a U.S. war with Iraq.
______________________
It seems a lot of countries have been pumping over the quota
already, not much capacity left. Saudi's are the only ones
with significant capacity left, but EIA says it can only make
a dent in deficit. The oil crunch could get worse. It takes 45
days for oil to get to the US from ME - the Europeans could
send some over sooner -BUT they seem to have a severe cold
snap right now. I don't know how much they can spare.
If we get a cold snap we could see energy prices spike in the
next couple weeks. So far no SPR oil being tapped.

ElGordo

(01/09/2003; 18:51:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93955)

@PIZZ

I agree with your analysis, I have had the same feelings myself
about an intentional juicing of the market to fulfill the concept
of as goes January so goes the year etc. Maybe they will throw
in the skirt length analysis soon.

Yes, the VIX is showing complacency in the market. Maybe some
profit taking tomorrow.

Peddler

(01/09/2003; 19:13:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93956)

Natural Gas

Gentleman, I understand that this is a GOLD site, however with Black Blade so faithfully filling us in on the "clear & present" danger of NG shortages, shouldn't we look at a few NG stocks? Doing our own research, or there some of you that have companies in NG that you care to name?
Respectfully,
The Peddler

Pizz

(01/09/2003; 19:17:24 MDT - Msg ID: 93957)

ElGordo

I can't remember for sure which way the skirt length is supposed to go, but I seem to remember they were about the length of wide belts in the early seventies and I don't recall that being a bull market.

If so, it would also confirm what I think will have to happen on CNBC to crank up ratings, and that would be another definition of TA.

I have noticed that Liz has lost a few pounds over the last year or so. Maria has a bit of work ahead of her. . . . maybe 70's style go-go outfits with 1 oz gold coins for belts, buckles, and other decorations. . . . .

Gold does seem to a bit over-bought, the stocks are correcdting a bit, but it should be mild, and more than likely next week, cause it's a bit tougher to knock it down on a Friday - better to hit it Monday after a non-eventful weekend. . but since the big boys are playing around thin markets with big bucks, it's worse than a crap shoot on a daily basis. . .

But thanks for the TA tip. . .always like to get others' opinions.

Pizz

TownCrier

(01/09/2003; 19:20:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93958)

Peddler, this excerpt from the top of the page sums things up nicely

"This gold forum is provided as a facility for customer outreach by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals through which to share insights, news and discussion on the benefits of gold coin and bullion ownership as part of a diversified portfolio." We invite your participation...

R.

mikal

(01/09/2003; 19:21:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93959)

New twist in Gulf weapons trajectory

http://www.msnbc.com/news/857322.aspIraqis may have GPS jammers Up to 200 blocking devices may have been sold, officials say- By Jim Miklaszewski
Jan. 9 � NBC News has learned from senior U.S. officials that the Iraqi government is believed to have bought a large number � perhaps 200 � of Russian-made global positioning system jammers, which can disrupt GPS signals. The devices, each about the size of a cigar box, may be able to fool the precision-guided bombs and missiles that would form the backbone of the U.S. military arsenal in a war with Iraq.
� � � �"THEY HAVE BEEN trying to buy them," said one U.S. official. "They have been in the market. They are not that difficult to obtain, so we have to believe that they have them. The question is their effectiveness."
� � � �The concern is so great that the U.S. Air Force is testing some weapons against the jammers. The United States anticipates that more than 80 percent of the munitions used in any war on Iraq would be precision-guided munitions using GPS.
� � � �One official said the jammers' "effectiveness is questionable," claiming that only a broad network of such equipment could throw U.S. bombs off target.
� � � �Some officials fear that the Iraqis would put the jammers on mosques and residential buildings, but Air Force officials do not believe that is possible.....End snippetts

sector

(01/09/2003; 19:24:47 MDT - Msg ID: 93960)

The Dollar Index Value of Gold [DIVG] Update from 12/26/2002

DIVG = LBMA PM Fix � Major Currency Dollar IndexDate_______DIVG

23-Dec-02__3.493
24-Dec-02__3.521
26-Dec-02__3.556
27-Dec-02__3.566
30-Dec-02__3.554*
31-Dec-02__3.566
2-Jan-03___3.500*
3-Jan-03___3.521
6-Jan-03___3.614
7-Jan-03___3.572*
8-Jan-03___3.587
9-Jan-03___3.620

* = Down day

The DIVG combines the major currency dollar index with the PM Fix.

From June 2002 until Dec 5th 2002 a level of DIVG = 3.25 had been defended. It has risen steadily since then with today being a new high for the move.

Since central bank gold is denominated in $USD the mark-to-market gold vault values track this metric.

Galerider

(01/09/2003; 19:43:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93961)

Cometose.....Rhodium uses

Rhodium.....used for furnace windings, thermocouples, electrodes for aircraft sparkplugs, laboratory crucibles, jewelry....automotive catalytic converters...just to remind Sir Gandalf....Sir Galerider

ElGordo

(01/09/2003; 19:50:55 MDT - Msg ID: 93962)

@PIZZ

I like the idea of Gold coins on the belts-sexy mama!

The TA crowd seem to see 1440 on the Naz as an important
resistance level. It went over 1440 intraday but closed under
1440 level. This could mean a short term top on this run up.

Tomorrow we get unemployment data, that will affect the
market rally big time- what the feds report is anybody's guess.
It could be a cooked number. If they want to juice this rally
again they can give the market what they want to hear.

Unemployment number is at 8:30 AM

TheJuniorMiner

(01/09/2003; 20:12:19 MDT - Msg ID: 93963)

international economics

Thought this article was very interesting.

The DAX in 2000 was 8100 now 3000
The FTSE in 2000 was 6800 now 3900
The CAX in 2000 was 7000 now 3150
The Nikkei in 2000 was 21000 now 8500

Overseas markets are trading diametrically opposed to what the U.S. futures market would indicate as just one of the 15 markets that we track is positive. The cumulative return on the group is a minus 0.882 percent with the Frankfurt DAX dragging down the average. The index continues to trade below the key 3,000 level, which was broken on a closing basis yesterday. Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank concluded their meetings this morning leaving their respective interest rate structures unchanged. The lack of any move was widely expected. Weak economic growth resulted in another increase in the German jobless rate for December. The country lost an additional 28,000 jobs over November (1,000 less than expected). The unadjusted unemployment rate moved to 10.1 percent from November's 9.7 percent rate.

mikal

(01/09/2003; 20:21:24 MDT - Msg ID: 93964)

@TheJuniorMiner

I like that article. How can I read the full text? TIA

Dollar Bill

(01/09/2003; 20:26:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93965)

a little reality about the mighty euro union

From Morgan Here is a piece on the situation in the EU.
Morgan Stanley analysts.

Euroland: Euroland = Germany = Japan? Nein!
Eric Chaney (from Paris)

As Germany tumbles, financial markets draw a scary parallel with Japan. Since Germany is and will likely remain for the foreseeable future the heavyweight of Europe, the parallel is supposed to hold for the euro zone as a whole. I believe that the main merit of this analogy is to raise provocative questions, but that it is misleading. My colleague Elga Bartsch has already largely documented Germany' structural problems, and her recent contribution to this forum, 'Getting the Job Done' (November 19), is a must read. Germany's problems are indeed very serious and must be addressed, but I am afraid that the parallel with Japan masks the real issues.

Do not get me wrong; I do see similarities in the Japanese and German macro landscapes. I will briefly stress three of them: construction, budgetary policy, and credit, before coming to what I think is the really hot issue.

Construction in Deflation

Everywhere in Europe, construction is doing well, too well indeed in some countries, in my view. Germany is the exception. The bubble inflated by the massive fiscal stimulus designed to rebuild the former DDR is still deflating. On the supply side, the construction sector is still shrinking, feeding a continuous stream of bankruptcies that impair banks' balance sheets. In Japan, the bubble was inflated by monetary expansion, in Germany by fiscal expansion, but the debt deflation that resulted is of the same nature, if not the same magnitude, in my view.

Pro Cyclical Budgetary Policy

Because of Maastricht rules, Germany was the first large EMU member that needed to tighten fiscal policy when the economy was in recession. Raising taxes such as social security contributions likely had and will likely have a depressing effect on domestic demand, just as the rise of the VAT rate in Japan had a few years ago. Also, the reaction of taxpayers when, despite some efforts, public deficits slipped further, was the same: a rise of the savings rate that typically depresses demand further.

A Creeping Credit Crunch

Facing significant losses on the asset side of their balance sheets, German banks are less willing to lend to companies, other things being equal. One might debate whether the flattening of bank loans is a supply- or demand-side thing, but unfortunately, there are no reliable indicators such as the Fed's senior loan officer survey to disentangle the two sides of the equation. Probably aware of this gap on its radar screen, the ECB has just decided to launch such a survey, but it will take years before becoming useful. Listening to companies and financial markets, my own impression is that credit restriction, not crunch, is a very serious issue, accelerating the pace of bankruptcies in the once glorious German Mittlestand German banks are not yet forced to cut credit lines because of their solvency ratios, but some of them seem not far from this very Japanese situation.

Extending these analogies, it is tempting to conclude that Germany will soon drop into deflation, all the more quickly now that it has lost its monetary independence. However, I think the extrapolation is overdone and misleading. The property market bubble in Germany is by no means comparable to that of Japan. Never was a building in Berlin worth the whole of Park Avenue, to my knowledge. Also, bankruptcies, even bank failures, are not associated with the kind of social shame that is typically still felt in Japan.

The Risk of 'Stag-Disinflation'

In my view, the risk for Germany and thus for Europe is elsewhere. When the property bubble burst in Japan, the variable part of wages, including for blue-collar workers, amounted to one fourth of total compensation. This is not the case in Germany or in the rest of Europe. Accordingly, the wage deflation that occurred in Japan is practically impossible here, in my view. And this is precisely where the shoe pinches. What Germany suffers from is not a banking crisis, but rather a massive wage inflation bubble, as my colleagues Elga Bartsch and Joachim Fels have argued at length. If, possibly because of an appreciation of the euro, prices went down in Germany, real wages would automatically rise, real profits would dive, and investment would not recover, in my view. Deflation would be short lived because of the downward rigidity of nominal wages, a point stressed by Franco Modigliani in his conversation with Stephen Roach not long ago. But long-term GDP growth, essentially a byproduct of corporate investment, would be depressed. Very low inflation and very low growth -- call this stag-disinflation -- would then likely become permanent, with consequences such as endemic unemployment and public deficits.

As Elga stresses correctly, Germany's excessive wages are now the linchpin of any hope of a sustainable recovery. I would extend her diagnosis to the whole euro zone economy, simply because Europe, impaired by many other flaws even where wage levels are consistent with decent economic performance, is unlikely to recover if Germany remains sick.

Wage Freeze and Zero Corporate Profit Tax?

At this point, the story goes beyond the strict German landscape. On top of microeconomic structural reforms, Germany needs two things, in my view. The first is to build a social and political consensus for a multi-year nominal wage freeze. This is definitely an internal issue. But I am afraid that this would not be sufficient and that the impact of declining real wages on domestic demand would be too costly. In order to accelerate the process, the only other way I see to absorb the excess of real wages is to boost productivity. Deregulating product markets typically increases potential output, but this takes time. I believe that the best way to boost productivity rapidly is to increase the stock of productive capital per worker. I understand that this was the ultimate goal of the ambitious tax reform implemented by Chancellor Schroeder over his last term. Backtracking would be a serious mistake, in my view, while going further would be wise. Why not cut corporate taxes to zero for a pre-announced period? By boosting the return on investment, this would allow for an improvement of both labour and capital productivity, in contrast to the current pure capital to labour substitution that typically kills employment and depresses return on investment.

Tax Harmonisation Would Likely Condemn Germany to Paralysis

The main obstacle on that road might not be in Germany, but rather in the willingness of a large number of European politicians to harmonise corporate tax rates. It is alleged that setting a floor to tax rates would prevent tax competition from turning into unfair tax dumping. That might hold in the long term, but for now, in my view, all EMU members should realise that letting and helping Germany to recover as quickly as possible is the top priority.

The current state of denial I perceive both in Germany and in neighbouring countries about the issues at stake might be the most relevant parallel that can be drawn with the Japan of 10 years ago. But this is about mind-sets, not macro.
Stanley

Trojan

(01/09/2003; 20:42:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93966)

IMPORTANT NEWS FLASH

Report: N. Korea Quits Nuclear Treaty

The Associated Press
Thursday, January 9, 2003; 10:24 PM
SEOUL, South Korea �� North Korea is pulling out of the global nuclear arms control treaty, North Korean news media said Friday.
North Korea's Central Radio Station broadcast a government statement saying that the communist state was pulling out the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The report was carried by South Korea's cable news network YTN.
� 2003 The Associated Press

End Of News Flash

Can someone explain what is going on ?

North Korea just ageed today to meet with Bill Richardson of the USA on the Nuclear Issue.

Now all of a sudden, this Announcement.

I how the US government will react to this ?

Another Chess move by North Korea ?

Max Rabbitz

(01/09/2003; 20:43:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93967)

And�ril msg#: 93947 You asked��

"On the dollar side, Mrs. Greenspan is seen wooing....... anyone????"

I saw her sweet talking that great helmsman of the Caribbean, friend of Chavez, and heart throb of a generation of central planners. Fidel Castro. Just softball questions but no hugging or kissing�..at least not on TV.

Hmmmm. Why the trip? Perhaps to sound out trade relations in return for asylum for Chavez? Not a chance. Castro still dreams of final victory over the Goliath to the North and Chavez will never leave power. It's an ego thing.

ElGordo

(01/09/2003; 20:51:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93968)

Also pulling out of AEAI safety inspections

TOKYO (CBS.MW) - Asian markets tumbled Friday on published reports that North Korea was pulling out of the global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, triggering fears of an escalation in the nuclear crisis between the U.S. and the Stalinist state.

In particular, South Korean stocks went from a 2 percent gain to a 1.6 percent loss after the Korean Central News Agency reported, monitored by Japan's NHK television, that North Korea was withdrawing from the NPT and would no longer allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to examine the country's nuclear facilities.

South Korea's benchmark Kospi was standing 620.43 points by late morning trade.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei Average lost 39.47 points or half a percent, to end the morning session at 8,458.46. The broader Topix index shed half a percent to 834.81. The news broke shortly after Tokyo's stock market entered its midday break.

The dollar firmed to 119.60 yen in Asia action, against 119.30 yen in New York and 118.84 yen in Tokyo late Thursday.
_________
Trojan - these guys are masters of the psycho warfare.

Black Blade

(01/09/2003; 21:36:14 MDT - Msg ID: 93969)

Holiday sales slump

http://money.cnn.com/2003/01/09/news/companies/retail_december/index.htm
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Sales results released Thursday by major retailers for the crucial December holiday period show that it was anything but a merry Christmas for most U.S. store chains. With the exception of a strong showing by J.C. Penney, other retail benchmarks such as Wal-Mart, Federated Stores and Sears Roebuck suffered lackluster holiday sales, despite heavy promotional discounting, as buyers tightened their spending habits amid a weak economy, a struggling job market, and uncertainty about a possible war with Iraq. "Retailers faced a dog-eat-dog sales environment that led to fierce competition for consumers," Ken Perkins, retail research analyst with First Call, wrote in a research note. "Many retailers were heavily on sale throughout December in an attempt to lure fickle shoppers. But comparable-store sales and margins both took a hit as a result," he said.

Black Blade: The consumer is tapped out and has to be lured by heavy discounting that squeezes profit margins. It is consumer spending that is two thirds of the economy and there are cracks in that support. This could be a sign of things to come.

Joepmbull

(01/09/2003; 21:37:10 MDT - Msg ID: 93970)

Peddler..Natural Gas

There are 2 natural gas stock mutual funds that I own. I dont think its appropriate for me to name them in this forum. Do some research and you can find them and own a barrel of natural gas stocks.
Of course, I also own 4 gold stock mutual funds and am as happy as I can be with them.

TheJuniorMiner

(01/09/2003; 21:40:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93971)

to Mikal regarding the article

got to msn, get quote for harmony gold (hmy) and it is in todays news posted at 9:44 am

Trojan

(01/09/2003; 21:54:51 MDT - Msg ID: 93972)

Spot Gold Price

Folks...

Which is the two best Web Sites to go to in order to get Spot Gold prices Up to date or Live ?

I use INO but it is 20 minutes delayed. Is Kitco a live Spot Gold price ?

Thanks for the help.

I want to follow it especially tonight as there may be Fireworks in Gold Re: North Korea announcement Re: Withdrawing from Nuclear Treaties.

Thank You

Black Blade

(01/09/2003; 21:58:29 MDT - Msg ID: 93973)

Gas prices to rise by summer, government says

http://www2.bostonherald.com/news/national/ap_gas01092003.htm
Snippit:

WASHINGTON - Gasoline prices are expected to climb steadily over the next three months because of high-priced oil and the unlikely prospect of significant supplies from Venezuela before summer, the Energy Department says. Still, the administration has given no indication it is ready to release oil from emergency reserves to counter tight supplies. The head of the department's statistical agency agreed Thursday it's ``too close a call right now'' to tap the government oil stocks.

Black Blade: Top off the tank while you can. Higher oil and gas prices will hit the bottom line raising costs for goods and transportation. This at a time when the consumer is stretched to the limit, no hope of relief from government stockpiles, and with the prospect of war in the Middle East. Looks to get very "interesting". Every postwar economic recession has been preceded by an energy crisis and we know how that led to conditions that propelled precious metals higher.

Zhisheng

(01/09/2003; 22:04:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93974)

Sierra Madre (93949): The Fifth River of Eden

Thank you Sierra for transcribing the poem. It prefaces the final tale of Puck of Pook's Hill which I have now just reread. Besides adding flesh to the bones of the poem, it is a good story--how the inspired sacrifice of hidden GOLD by a certain Kadmiel, in a critical juncture, caused four words to be changed in the fortieth article of the Magna Carta, which afterwards affected the lives of many people.

It is remarkable how many things Kipling wrote, which I read for pleasure and diversion as a youth, I have in later years reread for insight and understanding.

Black Blade

(01/09/2003; 22:14:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93975)

Artic Blast

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=2
The dreaded Artic Blast is on its way into the Midwest with a steep drop in temperature and wind chill. The Weather Service says it should hang around for about two weeks. Bundle up!

- Black Blade

physicalman

(01/09/2003; 22:24:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93976)

quotes

www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm Heres a optional link with real-time currencies, gold and silver

Kagalaska

(01/09/2003; 22:25:33 MDT - Msg ID: 93977)

time to be thankful for our blessings(profits to come: GOLD GET YOU SOME)

AS a former Marine Infantry Plattoon Sergeant,husband to a retired Naval Petty Office'son of a retired Korean/Vietnam War era Naval Aviator, son-in law to a Korean/Vietnam War Marine Infantry GRUNT War Vet, I appreciate,applaude,celebrate,and will defend your right to speak your mind,transmit your views electronicly,demonstrate,protest,and even resist things you think are not right with my last breath. I would ask each of you to look to the defence of Stalingrad by the Russians against the Nazis and prep youself for the same. I don't mean to say a street to street defence of your neighborhood, but a day by day help to your country,Govt,and nieghbors during the coming storm, the clouds are gathering. Ya, sure your niegbors won't listen to reason and buy anything to save their butt they are too busy servicing thier corporate debt. Most however, are familiar with the Y2K scare and will if reminded of the feeling of relief they felt when nothing happened, help where they can. I have food,water,propane,firewood,gold'silver,meds,clothes,ect,and I will be goddamm if any kids in my area will go hungry,cold,or neglected in my baliwik.GUNS, GOLD, SILVER, SILVER, SILVER, GET you Some and then SOME MORE. BE a GOOD HUMAN.Regardless of yourt political leaning think about helping your Fellow Man for he is part of the problem and part of the solution. Disclaimer I do not go to church, work for a money outfit, I am a construction guy. Ask yourself this question when the schmidt hits the fan, will you shoot a kid who walks up to your door hungry.Today most of us would help a hurt or hungry dog on the side of the road. Tommarrow that dog will have 2 legs.We all talk of our desire for wealth and good deals soon it may be a meal. peace sorry for the splelling or grammatical errors i was tot to spell by sounding it out. Semper-Fi Humbely submitted to the Lords and Ladies of this Court by a mere "b" list squire.

Trojan

(01/09/2003; 22:28:16 MDT - Msg ID: 93978)

North Korea nuclear drama escalates

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2644593.stmFriday, 10 January, 2003, 04:36 GMT
North Korea nuclear drama escalates

North Korea's true intentions remain a mystery
North Korea says it is withdrawing immediately from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which seeks to control the spread of nuclear technology internationally.

The official Korean Central News Agency said that, although Pyongyang was pulling out of the NPT, it had no intention of producing nuclear weapons.
"Our nuclear activities at this stage will be confined only to peaceful purposes such as the production of electricity," the statement said on Friday.

US governor Bill Richardson is meeting North Korean diplomats But the BBC's Charles Scanlon in Tokyo says the decision will be seen as a very serious escalation.

International concern over North Korea's intentions has been growing since it expelled two UN inspectors last month, and re-activated some of its nuclear facilities at Yongbyon.

The announcement came as talks got under way in the US state of New Mexico between two North Korean diplomats and a former US ambassador.

The meeting is not officially sponsored by the Bush administration but has its support.

North Korea also recently announced it was ready to hold talks with the South Korean Government.

Serious escalation
North Korea denounced what it called US aggression, saying: "We can no longer remain bound to the treaty, allowing the country's security and the dignity of our nation to be infringed upon."

North Korea last withdrew from the NPT in 1993, provoking a dangerous confrontation with the United States. It later suspended the decision and entered talks.

Experts do not take seriously the claim that Pyongyang's nuclear programme is designed to produce electricity - the Yongbyon reactor is too small and could only produce a negligible amount of power.
It is believed the North could produce enough plutonium for five or six nuclear bombs by May.

Our correspondent says fears are growing that North Korea has decided nuclear weapons are the best guarantee of security and, with the US preoccupied with Iraq, now is the best opportunity to get them.

-----------------------------------------------------
Norh Korea keeps raising the Stakes...

Trojan

(01/09/2003; 22:34:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93979)

@physicalman "Need Further Help" Thank You

Physicalman

When I clicked on the link you kindly supplied, I get this: The URL you requested does not exist, or is temporarily out of service.

Is it the correct one ?

Thanks again.

slingshot

(01/09/2003; 22:36:39 MDT - Msg ID: 93980)

The Word is Getting Out

Today was a good day for this Goldbug. Went to my coin dealer and witnessed the sale of $4000 plus in gold coin. Yes Sir, cleaned the display case right out! So what was I to do? Move over to the silver. Purchased a 100 oz. bar.
Thats not all. Two co-workers wanted to get information on gold. Put them on to CPM USAGOLD.

One dealer I called could not fill a 100 oz. silver order and his premium was above my window of purchase for gold.

The second dealer had 1 oz. silver for $6.25
A third dealer had 1 oz. silver for$6.00

Yeah I know. Should have gone for the gold. I just wanted to give it the One-Two Punch for PM's.

Things are Happening.

Slingshot--------------<>

physicalman

(01/09/2003; 22:55:26 MDT - Msg ID: 93981)

quotes

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm try that one

Gold King

(01/09/2003; 22:57:57 MDT - Msg ID: 93982)

@ Black Blade CBM msg#: 93909 and msg#: 93906

No, that is not what I was saying. I was just pointing out what the water quality is in that region. There will be about 24,800 wells in the State of Montana and it is a fact that the quality of the water is gets much worse the further north you go in the basin. The figures on water quality of the CBM water produced that I gave in my last post comes form Fidelity Exploration (now owned by Montana Dakota Utilities) and are what can be expected in Montana. As I write this, Fidelity is dumping 1600 gpm into the Tongue. There are estimated to be 31,200 wells that will be drilled in Wyoming of varying quality, but looking at the entire basin the water quality will make the rivers unsuitable for irrigation.

Unlike the Tongue River the Powder is in really bad shape. The devil is in the details however. The Power is famous for being a mile wide, and inch deep and running up hill. It is true that originally the Powder was somewhat salty as well as silty. The dirty fact is that during the 60's oil and gas boom, the developers dumped enormous quantities of salt water on the ground and that is the reason today that between 40 and 60% of the salt load is attributed to this ecologic nightmare. There are several farmers on the river who depend on clean flows caused by rain events ( big flows in the river) to irrigate their fields. The new CBM developers want to dump during this time to dilute their discharge (flow based). These farmers depend on these rare rain events and if they get dumped on, they will cease to be able to grow hay. This is dry country and if you don't have hay, you are out of business. How would you like to get dumped on and put out of business? The Powder empties into the Yellowstone and approximately 2 miles below this, is the intake for the Buffalo Rapids irrigation District. Last year the SAR at the intake was almost twice the SAR as samples taken above the Powder confluence.

Irrigation is a significant use of surface water in the Montana portion of the Powder River Basin. This is most evident in the Tongue River Valley. Most of these farms are over one hundred years in production. This is dry country with an annual rainfall of 14", which the grasses are well suited to thrive in. The rain falls mostly in the spring and by mid summer the grass has matured and turned brown. This is prime feed and the cowman and sheepman made a good living fattening their stock in the summer. The winter was a different story. Most folks have seen the painting of "the last of 5,000" by famous Montana painter Charles Russell of the starved steer surrounded by wolves. That winter thousands of cattle and sheep died in a vicious storm that coated the grass with ice and left them to starve. It is imperative in this country to make hay to provide for the stock to survive in these conditions. Most of the farmland irrigated from the rivers supply this hay base. These hay bases may be small in proportion to land area but are essential for sustainable animal production. 160 acre hay base will often supply needed feed for 40 to 60 or more sections (square miles) of native grass land.

There are an estimated 75,000 acres of irrigated lands that will be affected and somewhere around 500 irrigators that are growing alfalfa, corn. sugar beets, beans and a variety of garden vegetables.. Here is a nice quote from a recent Editorial in the Billings Gazette

" We shouldn't sacrifice good water for methane gas. And we don't have to.
Technology allows industry to mitigate water quality impacts. That's a
cost of doing business."

Gold King: Black Blade I see that you now want to end this discussion about the abuses in the CBM oil and gas industry now that someone has started to point a finger in your direction. I have scrolled through miles of your posts of news and your comments on oil, natural gas and CBM. I would hope that our host would be fair in allowing me to point out �the rest of the story" you paint. If I am allowed, I will work on answering your questions to your post (01/08/03:22:17:00MT msg#93866

Gold King, who now goes to snuggle next to his Silver Queen��.

slingshot

(01/09/2003; 23:07:36 MDT - Msg ID: 93983)

Kagalaska

Wanted to welcome you to the forum.

Slingshot------------<>

Black Blade

(01/09/2003; 23:13:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93984)

Re: Gold King

http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets
I understand exactly what it is you are trying to do, however, as it is not related to precious metals and economic or geopolitical issues that influence precious metals, I would refer you to the site listed above where we could carry on this discussion in a more appropriate forum. I will be perfectly willing to read your responses there (even though circular and redundant they may be). I have dealt with religious zealots before (environmental, secular or otherwise) and I am not easily provoked. It is quite obvious what you are doing so I once again respectfully request that we take this to the other more appropriate site for discussion out of consideration for our host. Thank you.

- Black Blade

Old Yeller

(01/09/2003; 23:37:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93985)

Cycle Pro update

http://www.geocities.com/~CyclePro/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htm
Interesting viewpoints on gold,COMEX,underwater commercials
and possible delivery demand induced short squeeze.

Kagalaska

(01/09/2003; 23:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 93986)

Slingshot msg#93983

I thank you for the welcome. Gold/Silver get you some maybe some more.

Trojan

(01/09/2003; 23:41:01 MDT - Msg ID: 93987)

Thank You Pysicalman and it looks like War is ON

The TOP ChickenHawk has spoken. It looks to me IMHO after reading the following that the WAR is ON...

US will attack Iraq 'without UN backing'
By Toby Harnden
(Filed: 10/01/2003)

America will not delay a war with Iraq until the autumn and is prepared to launch military action against Saddam Hussein without further United Nations authorisation, a senior Bush administration adviser said yesterday.

Richard Perle, chairman of the Pentagon's Defence Policy Board and a hawk whose views carry considerable weight, rejected suggestions from British ministers and senior Foreign Office officials that plans for an early war should be put on hold.
Mr Perle, who is close to Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, said he did not expect the UN Security Council to reach agreement on the use of force but had little doubt that George W Bush, the US president, would press ahead regardless and lead a coalition to victory.

"I'm assuming that we will not get a consensus on the Security Council but it may be possible to get it," he said. "It would be a great mistake to become dependent on it and take the view that we can't act separately.

"That would be an abrogation of the president's responsibility."

Mr Perle stressed that as an outside adviser he could not speak for the Bush administration. But with Mr Rumsfeld and his ally Vice-President Dick Cheney, now the driving force behind US foreign policy, his pronouncements have taken on increasing importance.
Mr Perle said inspectors would not find actual weapons in the face of Iraqi concealment. "If that's the test, we're never going to find a smoking gun," said Mr Perle.

He criticised Hans Blix, the chief UN weapons inspector, for his handling of the inspections. He said inspectors had mainly visited previously known sites.

"They are the last place you would expect Saddam to put something," Mr Perle said. "You would have to be a complete idiot to do that. The inspectors returning to known sites makes Blix look foolish."

The Swede "has a history from when he was head of the International Atomic Energy Agency and Saddam built a nuclear capability right under his nose", he added.
Mr Perle suggested that American patience with the UN inspections process was limited and closely linked to the military timetable that makes it very difficult to fight a war after March because of the searing heat.

He said: "If there's no change in Saddam's attitude I think there'll be a reluctance to continue this without a clear indication that our patience will be rewarded by a UN Security Council consensus.
"A consensus would be a useful thing and I think we'd be willing to wait a little longer to get it but not a long time."

Mr Perle said America had been right to go to the UN to seek Resolution 1441, passed unanimously in November, because it "produced a consensus in support of significant demands" but the UN had only a limited role in dealing with Saddam.

"The question now of course is whether the UN having done that [passed 1441] will insist that its demands be met or revert to its previous posture which was to pass resolutions but not take the actions necessary to ensure compliance with them."

He expressed doubt that Tony Blair had asked or would ask Mr Bush to delay war until the autumn and accused those who sought such a delay of being opposed to ousting Saddam in any event.

Although Mr Perle did not mention them, a number of US State Department diplomats are implacably opposed to war.

They were encouraged by the views of the ministers and the Foreign Office, reported in The Telegraph yesterday, as well as recent comments by Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, that the chances of war were "60:40 against".

Mr Perle said: "There are nations on the UN Security Council against taking military action so they will try to slow any movement towards military action."
America and its allies, he insisted, already had the legal and moral justification for war. "We might be acting without a resolution from the UN authorising it but I think the administration can make a strong case that Saddam's defiance of a variety of resolutions passed previously could be understood to justify military action."

Gandalf the White

(01/09/2003; 23:51:56 MDT - Msg ID: 93988)

Sir Trojan ..... IF you have not been told .... THIS one is GREAT !!!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Trojan (01/09/03; 21:54:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 93972)
Spot Gold Price
===
Quality German Product !
Does not CRASH like a K-Chart !
<;-)

Mr Gresham

(01/09/2003; 23:54:58 MDT - Msg ID: 93989)

Kagalaska

You're OK in my book -- Keep 'em comin'!

Gandalf the White

(01/09/2003; 23:57:45 MDT - Msg ID: 93990)

Sir Galerider ......

Galerider (01/09/03; 19:43:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 93961)
Cometose.....Rhodium uses
< snip >
...just to remind Sir Gandalf....Sir Galerider
====
THANKS, I needed that !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/10/2003; 00:10:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93991)

OK, here we GO !! I'm letting SPOT and SPIKE out NOW !! <;-)

JUMP SPOT, JUMP !!
<;-)

ElGordo

(01/10/2003; 00:11:40 MDT - Msg ID: 93992)

AOL plans big job cuts

By David A. Vise
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, January 10, 2003; Page E01

America Online will undergo "relentless" cost cutting this year by eliminating a portion of its $1 billion in marketing expenses, slashing its 18,000-person payroll and trimming computer-network costs, a senior corporate official said yesterday.

Wayne H. Pace, chief financial officer of AOL Time Warner Inc., said managers at the company's troubled online unit have been directed to engage in "zero-based budgeting," which he characterized as "defending" every dollar of ongoing expenditures. Speaking to analysts and investors at a major West Coast media conference, Pace said the online firm's inability to generate much growth in its vast subscriber base, coupled with a precipitous drop in advertising, dictate that hefty spending cuts are essential to a turnaround.

Pace described 2003 in rugged terms, saying it will be a "reset" year for Dulles-based America Online, which he said is the only major division of AOL Time Warner that is not performing well. "There is going to be a focus on costs from the bottom up," he said.

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 00:22:23 MDT - Msg ID: 93993)

Canadian Natural-Gas Exports to U.S. to Drop

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030109/2119000888_1.html
Snippit:

CALGARY -- Canadian natural gas exports to the U.S. this year will drop by as much as 700 million cubic feet, about 1% of total U.S. consumption, because of falling production and increased Canadian demand, analysts say. The supply crunch will see natural gas prices hit and sustain high levels for the next three years, sparking fevered drilling that insiders believe still won't suffice to maintain natural gas reserves. And as production in the aging Western Canadian sedimentary basin drops, more gas will be pulled from storage to bridge the supply gap, leaving consumers in a precarious position next winter. "Exports are going to be down more than the production declines because we in Canada are going to need that gas," said analyst Peter Linder, with DeltaOne Energy Fund in Calgary.

Canadian gas exports to the U.S. fell 0.5% in 2002 compared with the previous year, the first such decline since 1986. The shipments, representing about three-quarters of Canada's gas sales and 18% of U.S. consumption, are forecast to drop by 2% this year against a 3% rise in domestic consumption. Analysts are keeping a sharp eye on falling storage figures, both in Canada and the United States, to mark withdrawal trends that backup production and consumption figures. The most recent Canadian natural gas storage levels indicate inventories Dec. 27 were about 30% lower than the previous year, at 314 billion cubic feet, and 19% lower than the five-year average of 387 billion cubic feet. Pitted against rising Canadian demand are sharp decline rates for natural gas wells that are expected to reduce overall volumes in the Western Canadian basin this year by 500 million cubic feet from a total 17.5 billion cubic feet last year. "This year is a write-off as far as new supply is concerned," Mr. Linder said. The bullish analyst doesn't mean to paint a doomsday scenario around supply -- Mr. Linder says demand for natural gas in Canada and the U.S. will be met, but at much higher prices.

Black Blade: A bit over optimistic in my opinion. Higher prices are here to stay and the economy will feel the pinch. Just a couple of months ago analysts were sure that there would be no energy crisis and even now Wall Street does not appear to understand the severity of the situation. They will soon understand as rising energy costs squeeze already pressured corporate profit margins sending the economy into a tailspin. What the Canadian energy sector is telling us is: "Americans, you're on your own." Meanwhile all hopes are on a quick invasion of Iraq and the securing of Iraqi oil fields.

ElGordo

(01/10/2003; 00:29:50 MDT - Msg ID: 93994)

New report suggests Iraq holding US pilot

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20030110-48937660.htm
The Defense Department recently obtained additional intelligence stating that a missing Navy pilot is alive and being held by the Iraqi government, according to U.S. officials.

The intelligence officials believe that the reports refer to Navy Capt. Michael Scott Speicher, whose status was changed to "missing/captured" by the Navy in October.

The reports, received in November, state that Iraq is holding a U.S. pilot and has moved the pilot among 18 locations in the country, according to officials familiar with the documents. The reports said the pilot was being treated by a doctor.

The officials could not say how reliable the reports are or whether they represent "circular reporting" � new reports based on old intelligence information from the same source or similar sources.

A spokesman of the Defense Intelligence Agency said that it receives such dispatches several times a year.

"We investigate every single one," the spokesman said, without providing details.

Cindy Laquidara, a Florida lawyer who represents Capt. Speicher's family, said in an interview that she recently spoke to an Iraqi defector who reported seeing a captive U.S. pilot in Iraq.

The defector is one of at least three Iraqis who reported that Baghdad is holding an American pilot from the 1991 Persian Gulf war.

Mrs. Laquidara said she believes the recent reports are based on the defector's statements.

The intelligence officials said the latest information bolsters earlier reports indicating that Iraq has been holding an American pilot since the war.

��

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 00:34:31 MDT - Msg ID: 93995)

Venezuelan food industry warns of possible upcoming shortages

http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2003010900009u0486&SA=Latest%20News
Snippit:

Caracas, Jan 09, 2003 (EFE via COMTEX) -- An association representing the Venezuelan food industry warned Thursday that serious shortages could occur within the next several weeks due to the effects of the ongoing general strike, which has paralyzed portions of the country's economy. Rafael Alfonzo, president of the industry group, said the present fuel shortage as well as the difficulties the sector is having in obtaining raw materials could cause a shortage of a number of food items. Alfonzo said there was no way to ensure that trucks could deliver products or that plastic- or cardboard-packing suppliers would be able to fill their orders. It will also be difficult to obtain the raw materials necessary to produce basic products and the entire food industry's efforts will be directed toward ensuring the supply of staples such as pre-cooked cornmeal, milk, rice, cooking oil, salt, sugar and canned tuna fish, sardines and meat products.

Black Blade: Gee, where have we seen this before? Argentina, Uruguay, former Soviet Union, Indonesia, etc. Along with the petroleum workers strike there is also a bank workers strike. Now food shortages are developing. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver as portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

Trojan

(01/10/2003; 00:42:38 MDT - Msg ID: 93996)

For Sir Gandalf the White

Excellent Site ... Thank You

I guess that is Live Spot Gold. Great

Christian

(01/10/2003; 00:43:42 MDT - Msg ID: 93997)

Derivatives.

The premise of derivative transactions is to use as few dollars as possible to control as many credit creation dollars as possible. Notional value of bank credit creation swaps in 1990=$6Trillion, 1999=$$35Trillion, 2002=$80Trillion. Notional Value= the amount of principal of assets on which such contracts are based. Only a small % (less than 3%) of the notional value of derivatives contracts ever get settled. There is no way to get out of a OTC derivative contract that goes against you because there is no buyer for your side of the trade. Nobody wants a money losing position. All you can do is hedge with more derivatives. The more credit (debt) is created, the demand for derivatives increase to protect against default of that debt. Most derivatives held are based on interest rate swaps made possible using the principal of credit creation gold. Credit creation contracts make up 87% of all OTC trades and metal contracts to support those credit creation contracts make up less than 5% of all OTC trades. Exchange traded derivative contracts make up less then 10% of all OTC trades. GOFRA=gold forward rate agreement is a hedging instrument used by metal producers and bankers- restricts itself to gold principal and interest paid in gold (off balance sheet). Central bankers leasing gold to the market only have exposure to gold lease rate volatility because the Treasury backstops their positions with options or futures contracts. Central bankers have insufficient deposits to make loans with so deposits are created by leasing (sale) of Treasury gold to grease the economic wheel with credit. The FED being a private corporation has no intention of using a helicopter or other means to give away money. It has to enter in the form of credit (debt). I wish some of you who have much more brain power, use it to figure this thing out. I went to four large banks Yesterday and all agreed with me that there is a big difference between the price and use of commodity gold and credit creation gold used for monetary use. All agreed that the main use of derivatives is to control with a few dollars as possible a large amount of credit creation asset be it gold, silver or any other metal where forward contracts are traded. Actually this can be done with any kind of physical thing- even lumber contracts. I could actually sell my trees in advance- if I can find someone stupid enough to buy them in advance for a set price.

Trojan

(01/10/2003; 01:16:41 MDT - Msg ID: 93998)

This Is Too Funny :-)

Please excuse me for getting off the Main Topics about Gold, Etc but this is about Venezuela and the USA in a odd way. I couldn't stop laughing when I read it.

Hope it gets a few chuckles in this Crazy World of ours.

Article:

MIAMI CUBAN MAFIA SHOCK JOCKS: A couple of idiots, WXDJ-FM disc jockeys Joe Ferrero and Enrique Santos, pulled a prank call on Cuban President, Hugo Chavez.

"[O]n Monday, Ferrero said, he and a woman posed as telephone operators and told a Chavez secretary that they needed the president's personal phone number to connect him with Castro, who supposedly was in a hidden location and could not receive calls. A recording of Castro's voice was heard in the background.

The announcers said the secretary finally consented, and they called Chavez with their tape of Castro ready to roll.

"Hello Fidel?" Chavez answered, according to an audio tape of the call provided by the announcers.

"Yes. Did you receive my letter?" Castro asked.
After greeting Castro, Chavez said: "Yes, I received everything fine."

"I am ready to cooperate with you," the voice of Castro replied.

After an exchange about the day of the week, Santos broke in and said they were calling from Miami.

"Get out of Venezuela, (expletive) terrorist! ... Animal, assassin, (expletive)!" Santos said before hanging up."

Way to go, jackasses! As if the United States was subjected to enough embarrassment by having a trained monkey for its President. Now we have, what are apparently the mentally deficient second cousins of Elian Gonzalez', nutcase Florida relatives, causing an international incident in the midst of a major poltical and economic crisis in Venezuela.

If I ever travel in South America, I'm going to wear a paper bag over my head.

Hesiod // 1/7/2003 10:01:07 PM

El Gringo

(01/10/2003; 01:26:46 MDT - Msg ID: 93999)

Hostages. Down Spot.

It is of course sad that a US Airman is being held in Iraq (hostage?) but even worse is that the world is being held hostage by the warmongers in Washington.
Another question. Afghanistan produces much of the worlds Opium Poppy crop but despite the US Invasion I understand that the crop acreage is larger than ever. Who controls the Poppy now? Could it be the CIA?
To gold, the Commercials are not stupid and their short positions in gold are increasing. They know that gold is about to drop in price.

ElGordo

(01/10/2003; 02:01:55 MDT - Msg ID: 94000)

Interviews in Cyprus could provide trigger for war

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,872053,00.htmlIraqi scientists whose evidence could provide Washington with a trigger for war are to be whisked out of the country soon to a neutral venue, Cyprus.

The foreign minister of Cyprus, Ioannis Cassoulides, told the Guardian: "It seems they will be coming."

A tug-of-war between the US and Baghdad over the scientists is shaping up as the crunch issue. The dilemma for the Iraqi president, Saddam Hussein, is that if he allows a scientist out to blow the whistle on a banned weapons programme, it could lead to war, but if Iraq were to block their departure, that too could be the cause of all-out conflict.

Ominously, the Iraqi government, which claims it has destroyed all banned weapons, insisted yesterday it did not expect any scientist would volunteer to leave.

The UN chief weapons inspector, Hans Blix, who briefed the security council yesterday on the work of his inspectors in Iraq, appears to be bowing to US pressure to make use of his powers to take inspectors out of the country.

ElGordo

(01/10/2003; 02:08:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94001)

Trader sees demand for Gold strong even without War

Friday January 10, 1:57 PM

MARKET TALK/JP: Many See Gold At $400 Realistic

1457 [Dow Jones] Though analysts see risk of gold price pull-back if Iraq war fears fade, many think there's good chance of $400 being hit this year, and the most conservative expect floor at $300. Some even think gold could reach $400 if there's no war, given strong Chinese demand after China liberalized its gold market; H.K.-based trader with a market-maker says technicals indicate $400 quite possible - "the bull in gold has just awakened."(AXT)

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 04:23:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94002)

GOLD WAS THE STRONGEST MAJOR CURRENCY IN 2002

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/reports/wgc/2002BO.pdf
Snippit:

The performance of gold's price during 2002 largely reflects the fact that the professional investor has returned to the use of gold as a risk management tool. In the 1980s and for much of the 1990s, the economic, political and financial environments were, in the main, seen as benign and there was no assumed need in the "professional sector" for the use of gold as a hedge against risk. Investment in the latter part of 2002 and at the start of 2003 has been driven by geo-political concerns but the underlying background is more complex, and reflects currency concerns, along with the desire to hedge against risks in the equity and bond markets and, notably in the case of Argentina and Japan, risks in the banking sector. Corporate governance problems also played a strong part during the first part of 2002, as a deepening mistrust of corporate reports and accounts augmented some investors� desire to hedge against equity exposure. Gold thus reasserted itself as an alternative asset class, enabling the professional investor to diversify his risk. With concerns also swirling in the markets about the destiny of the dollar, the euro and the yen, gold and the Swiss franc came into play as reserve currencies. As a consequence, the professional investor is once again looking at gold as a hedge against risk - something that many individuals in developing nations have never ceased to do. These individual investors in the Middle East, Indian sub-continent and the Far East have remained loyal to gold as a safe haven, or an "ultimate investment" as a portable anonymous form of money and it is this sustained activity which has formed the foundation of the change in sentiment in the rest of the world. The "retail" investor in the so-called first world is also aware of gold's resurgence and there has been a noticeable rekindling of interest in coins and bars from this quarter as well interest in gold in other forms from other investment pools.

Black Blade: A good series of graphs showing gold price movements in relation to currencies/markets, and the last one is quite instructive.

Hipplebeck

(01/10/2003; 04:36:59 MDT - Msg ID: 94003)

El Gordo

---------------
To gold, the Commercials are not stupid and their short positions in gold are increasing. They know that gold is about to drop in price.
--------------
They might not be stupid, but they are not necessarily the smartest people in the game either.

Hipplebeck

(01/10/2003; 04:37:42 MDT - Msg ID: 94004)

El Gringo

sorry for calling you El Gordo

Hipplebeck

(01/10/2003; 05:06:27 MDT - Msg ID: 94005)

Trojan

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=na&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iInd0=na&sBench1=na&sBenchcount=1&sBench2=&sBench2count=1&showBenchmarkSearch=&iInd1=na&iInd2=na&iIndcount=1&sSettings=naI don't know how delayed this gold pricing site is, but it seems a lot less than 20 minutes.

Maverick1

(01/10/2003; 05:29:07 MDT - Msg ID: 94006)

Topaz

I have noticed that there are no longer any articles about the Catholic priests inside the NY Times. I stopped seeing them about the time gold started moving. I guess the Vatican said "No way" and Bush didn't want to continue his blackmail scheme any longer.

Peddler

(01/10/2003; 06:02:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94007)

Joepbull & Town Crier

Thank you for taking the time to reply. Forgive me for getting out of line. I do not want to alienate you or the host whom I have come to respect and value the collective insight. I too own one gold mutual fund and several un-hedged gold stocks. Some physical gold. I will continue to read and profit from your postings.
Humbly,
The Peddler

Belgian

(01/10/2003; 06:31:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94008)

@ CoBra(too)

A friend signaled my terrible language-mistake that was a justified reason for your outburst :
Stupid me :...I ignore the answer (j'ignore la r�ponse)...should have correctly been :... I don't know the answer... (on Zighens question). So I was NOT "ignoring" *your* correct answer at all.
Will you please forgive me this stupidity and accept my apology. TIA

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 06:35:55 MDT - Msg ID: 94009)

Breaking News - "Bone Pile" Grows By 101,000

December job losses totalled 101,000 "bones" as the "economic recovery" fails to materialize. Hourly earnings fell 0.3% as well. Economists expected a gain of 30,000 jobs. This is very "grim" news for investors as it shows that companies are interested in making gains by cutting costs due to razor thin margins. Adding to the growing "bone pile" is just one method. This should provide a bit of "entertainment" as the Lemmings scurry about on Wall Street in light of the bad news.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 06:42:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94010)

November "Bone Pile" Data Revised Higher!

Yikes!!! Oh boy! November added 88,000 "revised bones" to the growing "bone pile" up from 40,000! As I always said - watch for those upward revisions because the financial media will ignore it. An analysts this morning stated that there are fewer job listings than last month and even fewer than last year this time. He said that many have simply "given up". Dept. of Labor Sec. Elaine Chow will speak shortly and spin some tall tales I am sure. Something about "economic recovery" or some such drivel.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 06:46:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94011)

Gold Rocket Lifts Off!!!

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Gold above $355 and rising to a new 6 year high as investors discover that the emperor wears no clothes!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 06:50:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94012)

Houston We Have A Problem!

The Gold Rocket just shot down. Well it looked good for a few seconds. Maybe recovery will ensue. Stay tuned.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 07:13:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94013)

Something Bizarre Happening Here!

A whopping 169,000 job losses (below expectations and revisions) in two months, the USD drops very sharply into new lows, teh economy is flushed down the crapper, etc. and what happens as the Gold Rocket fires on all engines? Rumors of bank and fund selling as soon as the POG takes off. I will dig around but one rumor is that a couple of major US and Euro banks are selling on behalf of Funds as Gold spiked. "Bizarre"

- Black Blade

Clint H

(01/10/2003; 07:21:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94014)

Black Blade usagold.com msg#: 93984)

http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets
For those who may have missed it, BB has many more writings about energy at the above site.
Somehow Black Blade has found a way to get 36 hours out of each 24 hour day. Thanks Black Blade!

Christian

(01/10/2003; 07:22:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94015)

Gold banking.

Conservative banking money sell gold stock shares to buy commodity gold and use it's credit creation power to buy more shares. In other words buy $350.00 commodity gold and through reserve banking turn that $350.00 gold into $1,500 in credit creation to buy shares with. It's called leverage. ------- What greater accounting scandal and coverup there be than the monetary unit in which all acounting is carried on, is itself a fraud. A fraud that has robbed billions of people of their buying power from their saved savings or earnings from hard labor.------- (Gibson's Paradox by Summers)= " The U.S. can finance a boom on massive debt issuance only if any link between the dollar and gold is impossible." Alan Greenspan in a speech in Belgium said, "A record of proven profitability is no longer required when capital funds are created out of thin air and profit ceases to be a necessary source of capital." ------- In a free society one is prohibited from taking the property of others against their will, which includes taking it by dishonest means. Anything one receives from others must be by their voluntary choice.

Pizz

(01/10/2003; 07:26:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94016)

and then there are the S&P Futures

which according to my service have miraculously gone from a negative 1000 basis points to a -221.

Getting a bit obvious. . . .

Pizz

Christian

(01/10/2003; 07:26:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94017)

on my post below>

turn $350 commodity gold into $10,500 not $1500 >>>

Cometose

(01/10/2003; 07:36:09 MDT - Msg ID: 94018)

NEW LOWS

on the U S DOLLAR

Rock

(01/10/2003; 07:36:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94019)

Blade warned this would happen!

Sir Blackblade predicted it, as soon as the holiday season ends the bone pile would continue to grow. Although the streets forecasted 6% unemployment remained the same they also forecasted 20,000 new jobs but instead got over 100,000 more lost jobs. All I can say is enjoy the opening bell, its going to get interesting. Blackblade is another Another as far as I'm concerned. Thanks Blade! As for me I've just about cleared that flu I picked up last Sunday. My doctor told me yesterday the best thing you can do is take the cold meds over the counter, rest and drink fluids, the reason most people keep hanging on the flu for weeks on end is because they wont sit still long enough to let their bodies regain the needed strength. It will be nice to get back to the club tomorrow. So there you have it.

Cheers,

Rock

Cometose

(01/10/2003; 07:37:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94020)

(No Subject)

JUMP SPOT JUMP!!!!!

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 08:00:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94021)

Re: Rock � Thanks

The dismal holiday season meant that there was little need to expand the sales force. I remember walking through stores and malls just prior to and during the holidays and seeing little foot traffic. The trend was for cost cutting and heavy discounting. That meant job cuts were coming. Actually I thought that this month (January) would be the big one, however, the last two months were whoppers. Consumer are tapped out and they are pursuing bargains and spending a lot less.

I see Elaine Chao (Labor Secretary) is playing down the unemployment data but she's getting grilled by the CNBC crowd. They are "soft balling" the questions though. She said something about an extension to the extended benefits so now I don't know if that means those who exhausted their extended benefits get another extension or not.

I suppose that we may see a turn around on Wall Street as if to "blow off" the bad news and say "all's well". The institutional money has been the main driver of equities lately as the individual investor has been sitting this one out. Volumes have not been all that exciting either. Still, it could get somewhat "entertaining".

BTW, in Euroland it appears that UBS and Dresdner banks (and a smattering of smaller banks) are working the gold market and we can assume that Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are probably at work too. I don't know what side of the trade they are on, but UBS and Dresdner have been especially busy.

I missed out going to the gym yesterday as I overdid it the last few days. I pushed myself a bit beyond my limits with longer and heavier bi-angular lifts and my arms were extremely worked over. But I will go for it again. No pain no gain!

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Truthcaster

(01/10/2003; 08:14:42 MDT - Msg ID: 94022)

Jobless Report

Things are crazy this morning it seems to me.
Looking at the job numbers the dow had a right
to fall off the cliff this morning. But wait what's
that it's now up a hair hmm. I smell the PPT this time,
after all we can't have the markets down right when we want
to wage war now do we. It's clear to see the line in
the sand with gold which is now down .50
that line looks to me to be 354.50 maybe 355.00
All He__ breaks out on the charts near that level.
It's going to be fun to see what happens today
My take is since it's friday the PPT will hold it's
ground until gold close's and then let the dow fall.

Clink!

(01/10/2003; 08:18:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94023)

Internet Geography

Sir Gandalf, I protest ! You have pushed my nationalistic button - since when did a website with a .UK subscript become a German product ?!

Actually, once you have permanently uprooted from your mother country, there might still be remnants of national pride (even to the extent that I feel more proud of being Scottish than British), but you realise that there are dumb aspects of any culture (If I get asked one more time what I is worn under the kilt.....!) If you try to criticise someone from another country/culture, they will probably come back with a criticism of yours which had maybe never struck you before and you look doubly foolish.

As an example of this, I am somewhat taken aback by some of my Floridian workmates go-get-'em comments with respect to Iraq. While I agree that Saddam is probably not a nice guy (but heavens the US has supported worse in the past for political/economic expediency), 1/ Where the heck is the detailed documented proof from Washington before starting WW3 ? 2/ What about the poor Iraqis whose only crime is to have been born in the wrong part of the planet at the wrong time (or in other words, how many Iraqi innocents will be killed to prevent how many innocent Americans from being killed)and 3/ I realize that there is not much experience of terrorism in the USA, but why does no-one in power seem to realize how utterly vulnerable ANY country is to terrorist reprisal. Not wanting to give anyone any ideas, but how much would it cost Saddam (or anyone else who has a grudge against the US) to pay for a small number (say 100) of sympathizers to lay low until Iraq is attacked, and then they do what the pair did in Maryland last November (except in a 'professional' way). The police/army had enough trouble with a couple of halfwits - what chance have they in finding people who KNOW how to get away.

Oof ! Sorry, Gandalf, this post started off as a joke, but I found out while typing that I guess that I am a little more upset about the Iraq situation than I realised. Please understand that I am not getting at you ! I grew up in a country where, despite an imposed military regime in Northern Ireland, there were still at least a couple of bombs every week. I just don't want to see that happen in the USA.

Clink!

@Kagalaska - I like your catchphrase (I'm sure Ari will take the plagiarism as a compliment !)

Rock

(01/10/2003; 08:19:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94024)

No Pain No Gain True, But Recovery A Must!

Remember Blade, although your muscles get a good pump at the time of your workout, they actually grow larger during recovery time. I work my muscles to the point of exhaustion but one must also remember that over working said muscles can actually make the muscles smaller. I'm sure you're aware of all that stuff but thought I'd throw it in anyway.

About the Labor secretary, did you see how clammy her face was? I could see the shinny glare off her forehead. Looks to me like she's sweating bullets and scrambling for quick answers to soften the blow of reality. All I can say when I see these figures and the deception to cover over them is "slow death" and to me that's the worst kind.

Cheers!

Rock

Mr Gresham

(01/10/2003; 08:21:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94025)

Thought

Don't feel bad about the past, about being taken in, and certainly don't feel stupid.

It is the nature of Illusion to pretty well fool just about everyone, and you probably could not have lived this long without being a mostly trusting soul.

Also, be glad not to have been one of the masters of Illusion. I don't know which would be worse -- all the sleepless nights lying awake figuring out your next moves, or sleeping "like a baby" and not having any worries while doing it all.

Although the shock of finding out the games that have been played may seem overwhelming to you, it will probably work out all right for you in the long run. (if you are a step ahead of most of the crowd, that is -- my guess is that you already are.;)

Rock

(01/10/2003; 08:36:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94026)

Gold Rocket Shot Down!

Houston we got a problem.... ROFL that was a good one Sir BlackBlade! Hey Blade, I remember last week when you went to the club with a mantra "It's a beautiful day." I couldn't help but thinking of my own experience at the club a few weeks ago. I know a stock broker who was very heavy in the tech stocks in 2000. As we were both sweating it out on the stair master and talking about the economical landscape I mentioned to him how I favored gold and how gold would make a comeback.

At that time he laughed and shook his head back and forth as to indicate I'm one dumb fool if I expect him to believe that. At that time (2000) told me he just bought a $30,000 dollar automobile off of his earnings from EMC. Now however when he sees me he gleans with respect and he is more attentive to my opinions and I don't see that stupid smile on his face when I mention the G word. Hate to say I told you so, well actually I love saying it.

Cheers mate!

Rock

Zhisheng

(01/10/2003; 09:12:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94027)

Gold Today

As my grandfather from Arkansas used to say:

"Independent as a greased hog on ice!"

Cavan Man

(01/10/2003; 09:12:40 MDT - Msg ID: 94028)

Self-explanatory

By Jonathan Weisman
THE WASHINGTON POST

Jan. 10 � President Bush's 10-year, $674 billion economic growth package � coupled with a war with Iraq � would push the federal budget deficit well into record territory next year, and possibly as high as $350 billion, private-sector budget forecasters said yesterday.

sector

(01/10/2003; 09:19:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94029)

Plan: Tap Iraq's Oil

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/world/ny-usoil103081930jan10,0,13852.storyU.S. considers seizing revenues to pay for occupation, source says

By Knut Royce
SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT

January 10, 2003, 9:55 AM EST

Washington - Bush administration officials are seriously considering proposals that the United States tap Iraq's oil to help pay the cost of a military occupation, a move that likely would prove highly inflammatory in an Arab world already suspicious of U.S. motives in Iraq.

Officially, the White House agrees that oil revenue would play an important role during an occupation period, but only for the benefit of Iraqis, according to a National Security Council spokesman.

Yet there are strong advocates inside the administration, including in the White House, for appropriating the oil funds as "spoils of war," according to a source who has been briefed by participants in the dialogue.

"There are people in the White House who take the position that it's all the spoils of war," said the source, who asked not to be further identified. "We [the United States] take all the oil money until there is a new democratic government [in Iraq]."

The source said the Justice Department has urged caution. "The Justice Department has doubts," he said. He said department lawyers are unsure "whether any of it [Iraqi oil funds] can be used or has to all be held in trust for the people of Iraq."

Another source who has worked closely with the office of Vice President Dick Cheney said that a number of officials there too are urging that Iraq's oil funds be used to defray the cost of occupation.

Jennifer Millerwise, a Cheney spokeswoman, declined to talk about "internal policy discussions."

Using Iraqi oil to fund an occupation would reinforce a prevalent belief in the Mideast that the conflict is all about control of oil, not rooting out weapons of mass destruction, according to Halim Barakat, a recently retired professor of Arab studies at Georgetown University.

"It would mean that the real ... objective of the war is not the democratization of Iraq, not getting rid of Saddam, not to liberate the Iraqi people, but a return to colonialism," he said. "That is how they [Mideast nations] would perceive it."

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the cost of an occupation would range from $12 billion to $48 billion a year, and officials believe an occupation could last 1 1/2 years or more.

And Iraq has a lot of oil. Its proven oil reserves are second in the world only to Saudi Arabia's. But how much revenue could be generated is an open question. The budget office estimates Iraq now is producing nearly 2.8 million barrels a day, with 80 percent of the revenues going for the United Nations Oil for Food Program or domestic consumption. The remaining 20 percent, worth about $3 billion a year, is generated by oil smuggling and much of it goes to support Saddam Hussein's military. In theory that is the money that could be used for reconstruction or to help defer occupation costs.

Yet with fresh drilling and new equipment Iraq could produce much more. By some estimates, however, it would take 10 years to fully restore Iraq's oil industry. Conversely, if Hussein torches the fields, as he did in Kuwait in 1991, it would take a year or more to resume even a modest flow. And, of course, it is impossible to predict the price of oil.

Laurence Meyer, a former Federal Reserve Board governor who chaired a Center for Strategic and International Studies conference in November on the economic consequences of a war with Iraq, said that conference participants deliberately avoided the question of whether Iraq should help pay occupation or other costs. "It's a very politically sensitive issue," he said. "... We're in a situation where we're going to be very sensitive to how our actions are perceived in the Arab world."

Meyer said officials who believe Iraq's oil could defer some of the occupation costs may be "too optimistic about how much you could increase [oil production] and how long it would take to reinvest in the infrastructure and reinvest in additional oil."

An administration source said that most of the proposals for the conduct of the war and implementation of plans for a subsequent occupation are being drafted by the Pentagon. Last month a respected Washington think tank prepared a classified briefing commissioned by Andrew Marshall, the Pentagon's influential director of Net Assessment, on the future role of U.S. Special Forces in the global war against terrorism, among other issues. Part of the presentation recommended that oil funds be used to defray the costs of a military occupation in Iraq, according to a source who helped prepare the report.

He said that the study, undertaken by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, concluded that "the cost of the occupation, the cost for the military administration and providing for a provisional [civilian] administration, all of that would come out of Iraqi oil." He said the briefing was delivered to the office of Paul Wolfowitz, the deputy secretary of Defense and one of the administration's strongest advocates for an invasion of Iraq, on Dec. 13.

Steven Kosiak, the center's director of budget studies, said he could not remember whether such a recommendation was made, but if it was it would only have been "a passing reference to something we did."

Asked whether the Pentagon was now advocating the use of Iraqi oil to pay for the cost of a military occupation, Army Lt. Col. Gary Keck, a spokesman, said, "We don't have any official comment on that."

NSC spokesman Mike Anton said that in the event of war and a military occupation the oil revenues would be used "not so much to fund the operation and maintaining American forces but for humanitarian aid, refugees, possibly for infrastructure rebuilding, that kind of thing."

But the source who contributed to the Marshall report said that its conclusions reflect the opinion of many senior administration officials. "It [the oil] is going to fund the U.S. military presence there," he said. "... They're not just going to take the Iraqi oil and use it for Iraq's purpose. They will charge the Iraqis for the U.S. cost of operating in Iraq. I don't think they're planning as far as I know to use Iraqi oil to pay for the invasion, but they are going to use it to pay for the occupation."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

So it all out in the open now. The war is all about oil theft to bail out a sagging US economy.

The UN estimates 500,000 casualties. Rush Limbaugh crows... "Two week war"!. Let's see...

My calculator reveals that the US would kill or seriously wound 35,714 Iraqi's per day. That must be some kind of a record.

What a country.

Cavan Man

(01/10/2003; 09:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94030)

sector

Almost can't believe what I am reading but, then again, we have all those SUV's to fill up. Watch for our European and Asian allies to slip/slide away. BTW, I am likely more conservative than Limbaugh and I have to tell you he is a "big fat jerk".

sector

(01/10/2003; 09:54:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94031)

Open Letter to the Tampa Tribune's Editorial Page Editor

Finally the Trib has posted an honest article about the war. It has always been about oil.Hi Jim:

I was encouraged to finally see an honest report about the pending Iraq war in the Tampa Tribune. It's about oil and always has been. One look at the half-a-trillion-per-year US trade deficit is all you need. Oil is the only way out of that debt. So the Prez sets up a war scam.

The problem is the cost. 500,000 casualties according to the UN combined with Rush Limbaugh's [Clear Channel] "Two Week war" boasts, mean that the US will kill or wound 35,214 Iraqi men women and children per day.

That achievement should be some kind of record...even for a sophisticated and technologically advanced nation like the United States. Think of the profits if one made body bags.

Meanwhile the "Axis Nation" of North Korea feverishly builds their nuclear arsenal of compact bombs that will soon be available for export to the highest bidder(s).

Perhaps the Tribune could establish a lottery to pick the day when one of those bombs pops off in New York and/or Washington DC? Then the lottery could shift to picking the day when US tax revenue reached zero. The logical next lottery after that would be the formal Balkanization of the US itself.

Actually, Florida would come out pretty good under the above scenario. The FDLE [Florida Department of Law Inforcement] in combination with Eagle Scouts could build a barbed wire fence across the Okeefenokee Swamp from the Atlantic through to Pensacola on the Gulf and charge a hefty toll to all those Northern refugees in order to get into the State and to all our lovely beaches.

There's always a silver lining.

What a country.

Genoo

(01/10/2003; 10:06:27 MDT - Msg ID: 94032)

Predicting the price of spot seems impossible does it not

Take this morning, the employment figures come out, spot logically leaps from flat to $356 or so in a wink, and seems set to fly skyward. Minutes later it is once again flat..then quickly down...as if swatted by some massive illogical force...but it refuses to stay down to any degree or for any length of time. Of course we know that the longer it stays in the $350 area prior to trading higher, the stronger the eventual move will be...yet we are all tired of patiently waiting. Now it's negative $1.00 with approximately one and a half hours fof trading left.

Naturally anything is possible today..... one possibility is that for some unfathomable reason, spot is not yet ready to move .....another possibility is that the speculative longs are digging in for the battle of the final few minutes of trading for the day and the week. Should spot crack $355 or so today, wouldn't it be interesting to see if that is the signal telling the major gold stocks that it is now ok to run.

Nothing one can do exept to wait and be very curious as to how the battle of the day resolves.

Truthcaster

(01/10/2003; 10:34:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94033)

Spot frisky

Spot gold just now shot up 1.40 oz
as the dow turned south again, the dollar is
falling some now too. It's just plain
crazy today. Spot would like to take out
355.00 to end the week looking good.
time will tell.

Truthcaster

(01/10/2003; 10:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94034)

Gold is moving

Spot Gold Now Up 1.90 an oz @ 355.30
JUMP SPOT!! JUMP!!

a nation of one

(01/10/2003; 10:49:06 MDT - Msg ID: 94035)

fido

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=5&t=c&a=12
Gold is consolidating above 350. It has crossed back and forth over 354 and 355 a number of times. Sells increase around 354/355. But strong buys follow these declines. So, from here, an upward movement seems more likely than a downward movement. Also, for the past several days, the 12 hour moving average has been wavering, as the POG has been in these present areas, forming flat lines, then changing, then forming new flat lines. This is consistent with a trend being ongoing, rather than with a trend changing. The trend that has been ongoing has been upward. Therefore, an increased expectation that any significant movement in the near future will be upward is even more justified.

balzac

(01/10/2003; 10:50:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94036)

CRB Free fall

Can anyone explain the strange gap down on the CRB charts
on INO.

Balzac

Pizz

(01/10/2003; 10:54:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94037)

Hey Sector,

I'm going to throw out some second thoughts on our derivatives commentsfrom yesterday.

No change to the analysis and conclusions of slow steady upward pressure on POG, but that also is based upon a finacial analysis of how we feel the derivative situation is being resolved under current conditions. It's also based upon a continuation of the indecisiveness of the current geopolitical situation.

Personally, I have never made any decent money in the markets playing the "here's what should happen" senarios. The reason being, what should happen usually does, but three to six months out, with a short term monkey wrench thrown in to shake out all the players who have figured out what they think should happen. And when it does happen, it's from a level no one anticipated, so no decent profits.

Now, I'm going to rule out a sharp downdraft in PM's. Mainly for the following reasons. The Fed's comments that they can and will burn the buck if necessary, their comments on gold of late, the geopolitical situation, and the short positions in gold that the big specs have to see as a huge, ripe target.

So, now what could cause our analysis of a slow steady rise to fail and to get the short covering rocket launched?

The political cycle and the position Bush has got himself into.

If we back down in Iraq, the rogue nations and terrorists will have a huge political victory.

If we don't get a huge downdraft in the SM, there will be no meaningful rally into the 2004 presidential elections.

If we don't get a crash in the economy, the dollar, wipe out a huge chunk of the debt and the derivatives, and shake out the weak corporations, they will not be able to reinflate to keep the system going.

Are we set up for a major crash right now? The VIX nearing crash territory. PM's firm and holding right under one huge take-off point (354 gold, 4.85 silver). Oil, gas, and commodities in the same positions.

Thru the UN, we've given Saddam enough time and rope to put up a better battle than he could have a year ago, like torch the oil fields, and get his WMD dispursed, etc. The delays, IMO, have set up the crash senario very well.

The Bollinger bands around the geopolitical situation have narrowed and they should break. I'm leaning more towards the political cycle and the positions of all markets that say we are going to get the capitulation (and the excuses other than system failure) required for a recovery.

So, most have probably figured that I was heading for a conclusion that we would be the ones to get the downdraft in PM's and be the ones to be shaken out. No!

Right now I think the ones that were about 6 months early were all the market players who were listening to the 'capitulation' camp last summer and fall. I think they were right, just early. When was the last time you heard the term capitulation in the media. . .even the more honest ones?

Nice thing about having a long, physical position in the PM's. We cvan ride out darn near anything. . . .

Pizz

Gandalf the White

(01/10/2003; 11:06:37 MDT - Msg ID: 94038)

SPIKE just made $356.3 ..... BUT had to "fall back" to $355.3 !!!

Truthcaster (01/10/03; 10:46:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 94034)
Gold is moving
Spot Gold Now Up 1.90 an oz @ 355.30
JUMP SPOT!! JUMP!!
===
Maybe that is the NEW SUPPORT LEVEL ?
JUMP SPOT, JUMP !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/10/2003; 11:14:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94039)

HERE we are again ! $356.3 SPOT !!!

SPOT is WITH SPIKE at $356.3 NOW !
JUMP !!!
<;-)

mdgc

(01/10/2003; 11:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 94040)

TGIF

Thank God it's Friday. Ten more minutes of fun!

slingshot

(01/10/2003; 11:20:53 MDT - Msg ID: 94041)

(No Subject)

BITE'EM SPIKE!

Slingshot-------------<>

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/10/2003; 11:22:42 MDT - Msg ID: 94042)

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

Marie Ballard Ext 106

We look forward to your inquiry.

cyberbat

(01/10/2003; 11:24:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94043)

No Mercy

Tear their a-- up Spot!! Give no quarter. They didn't for us and laughed all the way to the bank.Now it's our turn. I want to hear wailing, crying, and knashing of teeth.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/10/2003; 11:26:15 MDT - Msg ID: 94044)

International clients: Please take note of our NEW toll free Int'l phone numbers

http://www.usagold.com/phone.html
Implemented to help us serve you better.

Give them a spin and let us help you with your next gold order.

CoBra(too)

(01/10/2003; 11:29:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94045)

@ Sir Belgian -

Sir, thank you very much for kind apology. It does credit to the integrity, I've always found in your powerful and enlightning posts. And please keep them coming, as I know that all here love your style and exceptional persuasive powers.

Let me state, that, yes I was a bit miffed, though I felt to take a little sabbatical anyway, as work is piling up again in our golden niche, after some 6 or 7 very daunting years.

I've never lost my convictions - Bon Chance mon ami - cb2

cyberbat

(01/10/2003; 11:29:28 MDT - Msg ID: 94046)

Zhisheng

Ladies and gentleman. I hear the fat lady (Zhisheng) in the back ground clearing the throat. Please come front and center and say that beautiful, wonderful, 4 word phrase!!
Cyberbat

sector

(01/10/2003; 11:30:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94047)

@pizz The Crystal Ball...

...is always cloudy when timing is important"Getting the short covering rocket launched" is more complicated than it looks.

Your views are very good. I see the gold price as on a controlled ramp to a very high level. A big jump will be allowed to happen under cover of the war's launch. But the traditional spikey, short-lived, short-covering rally isn't in the tea leaves. It will be replaced with an excruciating grind higher with a quickie "Gap" move coming soon.

My feeling is that the G-10 and their central bank friends MUST get to a point where they can (1) stop selling metal and (2) get a revenue stream [From other people's oil]. So the stage has been set for gold to rise with the war.

The really big surprise will come when it doesn't come back down.

The equilibrium, free-floating, inflation adjusted, non-hedonic price of gold is $558 per ounce. This is based upon a simple regression [.98 R^2 value] CPI analysis from 1968 through 1995 and then extended through the present.

The Fed knows this number [If they have half a brain]. POG below this figure means they sell their metal on balance. The war will let them get up there fast [The "Gap"] with a plausible excuse.

The real problem for the cartel is what to do after they get to $558 and their governmental inflationary juggernaut keeps gaining momentum as we all know it will.

$356 per ounce will seem like parking meter money in the future.

The Western central banks have never been in a position where they had no free gold to sell the price down in order to float their paper currencies. They now can see the date when that unbridled disaster will occur. this will be Sir Eddie George's "Abyss".

The Western central bank currencies as Banana Republic wallpaper.

Gandalf the White

(01/10/2003; 11:31:59 MDT - Msg ID: 94048)

WOWSERS ----- LOOK OUT SPOT AND SPIKE !!

PAPER AVALANCHE !!!
<;-(

slingshot

(01/10/2003; 11:33:11 MDT - Msg ID: 94049)

Cyberbat

" I Told You So!"

Beautiful. LOL :0)

Slingshot-------------<>

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/10/2003; 11:34:12 MDT - Msg ID: 94050)

Why should YOU buy gold? Because no one else will do it FOR you. We can help.

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance and credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial asset which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

Skydog

(01/10/2003; 11:48:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94051)

@ Sirs Belgian and CB2..

Your openness and honesty is exceeded only by your good manners...thank you!!

Skydog

Zhisheng

(01/10/2003; 11:49:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94052)

Cavan Man (94030)cyberbat (94046): Obesity.

Cavan Man: you may be wrong about Limbaugh---I hear he went on a diet.

Cyberbat: I KNOW you are wrong about the fat lady---she definitely is on a diet.

Not up into the close today, but close enough!

balzac

(01/10/2003; 12:04:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94053)

COINCIDENCE OR MANIPULATION

For the last three days at exactly 12:10EST gold has traded at $353. could the PTB control to this extent or was this just
a fluke.

Balzac

TownCrier

(01/10/2003; 12:08:35 MDT - Msg ID: 94054)

A good article -- gold, silver and diversification

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/iwon-com/news-story.asp?guid={4763F005-190D-47DF-BBBE-EFFE179DF34B}SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) --

[Speaking of silver...] The slightly precious metal's price can't seem to keep track with gold these days. Earlier this week, when the euro carved a three-year high out of the hide of the U.S. dollar, gold's spot price rose as much as $7 an ounce, or 2 percent. Its poor cousin, silver, rose a few pennies, or less than a half-percent.

Even Friday morning, as the dollar continued to topple from its currency perch and U.S. stocks tumbled, gold gained $2, or almost 1 percent. Silver was flat to down.

Over the course of a year, the picture is just as dismal. Silver's price is flat in the one-year span that began January 2002 -- at $4.85 or so an ounce. Gold's spot price is up 25 percent, to $354 an ounce.

Michael A. Berry sees the psychology of the crowd at work here. ... "When by various processes an idea has ended by penetrating into the minds of crowds, it possesses an irresistible power and brings about a series of effects, opposition to which is bootless." In real life 2003, this means most Americans, snow-stormed by a decades-long rush into stocks, have forgotten how to diversify.

In the case of silver (and to a lesser extent, gold), I call this the Don Quixote effect. No one, except a faithful peasant serf, wants to touch the Man of La Mancha with a 10-foot pole. But when the tide turns, it turns in a big way. In other words: Don Quixote as rock star. The popular mind, says Berry, will embrace investments other than stocks, and then the ensuing rush will sweep aside everything in its wake.

Berry has been a silver fan for years.

-------(see url for full article)-------

That final part about being a "fan" makes me wonder about his overall objectivity between the two metals in light of the facts and evidence of history where the edge goes to gold. However, each man must inevitably make up his own mind because the decision is the one you live with.

USAGOLD - Centennial can help you in either choice. Personally, I find the case for gold too compelling to look elsewhere for capital gains and for security.

R.

TownCrier

(01/10/2003; 12:19:22 MDT - Msg ID: 94055)

'The Economist' weighs in on the dollar. HEADLINE: How far can it fall?

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1533317--- After losing one-tenth of its value during 2002, the American dollar has fallen to its lowest point against the euro since 1999. Will it continue its retreat? ---

Jan 10th, The Economist -- IS THE party finally over? For years, currency experts have been confidently�and largely mistakenly�forecasting the decline of the dollar. They were able to marshal an impressive array of evidence in support of their arguments. It was, they said, overvalued on any historical measure....

Yet the dollar�or, more accurately, the people who buy and sell currencies�remained impervious to economic forecasts. The world's most important currency continued to be its most sought-after. The euro endured what to many Europeans was a humiliating decline in its international value almost from its inception. ... And then, in the closing months of last year, the dollar finally started to weaken. By the end of the year, the dollar had lost 10% of its value as measured against a trade-weighted basket of currencies. The first few days of 2003 have seen it slip further against the euro and the yen.

Will the slide continue�and if it does, what will it mean for the global economy?

As the most important reserve currency, the dollar is seen as a haven in times of global political uncertainty. ... More recently, gold has recovered some of its attractiveness as a haven, reaching its highest level in six years this month. But the yellow metal is still worth only a fraction of its long-term historical value.

...the tide now seems to be turning against the dollar. This suggests that, for the time being at least, factors other than risk-aversion are more powerful in determining currency flows. One of the most important is the recognition that American investment returns are likely to be significantly worse than in the recent past for at least the next year or two. It doesn't need investors to start shifting capital out of America to weaken the dollar�lower inflows would be enough.

Some of the dollar's weakness is also likely to be self-fulfilling. As investors become convinced that the American currency will depreciate, they will seek an alternative home for their funds. That will, in turn, put further downward pressure on the dollar.

--------(see url)------

Another excellent article by The Economist. Be sure to have a look, and then take a good long assessment of your vulnerability to lost purchasing power. Diversify and limit your risk through gold. Give USAGOLD-Cenennial a call.

R.

Gandalf the White

(01/10/2003; 12:23:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94056)

ANOTHER Beautiful Day, Black Blade !! <;-)

Feb COMEX Contract (GCG3) Friday action ---
HIGH = $356.5 LOW = $350.5 and SETTLEMENT = $354.9 +1.3 from Thurs settlement !
SPOT and SPIKE were above $356 until near the NY Close and were buried by a late PAPER Avalanche !!
Looks as if SPOT gold is about $354.5 !!!
GREAT Starting Point for NEXT WEEK !!!!
Rest you DOGS !
Until then, HAVE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND ALL.
<;-)

The Traveler

(01/10/2003; 12:28:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94057)

@sector (#94029)

Ever since US domestic production could no longer satisfy US demand (about 1970) and ever since Nixon closed the gold window to foreign Central Banks (1971), the driving consideration for US Foreign Policy (particularly as to the Middle East) has been and remains OIL - not communism, democracy, nuclear non-proliferation or other jingoistic rhetoric. The simple goal: to maintain through what ever means necessary access to supplies of CHEAP oil in order to fuel the world economies of which America is the biggest and most thirsty. Americans with their SUVs and $1.40 gasoline would squeal loudly at the ballot box if this sacred entitlement disappeared. Is it not curious that a gallon of bottled water cost more than a gallon of gasoline? Inflation adjusted, gasoline costs less now than it did in the 1920's. Though the US has diversified its supply sources to Canada, Venezuela, West Africa and Mexico (recall the unprecedented ESF bailout in 1996 secured by Mexican oil revenue?) and soon to Russia, the Middle East is still the linchpin to world oil supplies and prices.

The companion policy consideration is the US$ since oil and other commodities are priced worldwide in the US$ (the "exorbitant privilege" of the primary reserve currency). The calculus shows that higher volumes of oil consumption at a cheap price help produce worldwide economic growth. Thus foreign CB demand for US$ to pay each country's oil import bill will keep dollar demand strong.

On the other hand, if oil prices are high then consumption volume declines worldwide thus creating at the margin less economic growth and less demand for the US$. Given the trade deficit the US currently runs (5% of GDP) and the lack of good investment choices in the US (a $ that offers a negative real return before currency gains or LOSSES, a 40 year low bond market at a time when the FED says it will gun its printing presses in order to war against deflation trends and equity markets down up to 70% over the last three years and counting), it is in America's interest to provide the world with CHEAP oil in order to keep the US$ alive and functioning.

Do not doubt for one moment that Iraq's current predicament is the direct result of its policy of accepting Euros for its oil (less demand for US$). Doubt me? Consider the "axis of evil". North Korea has the bomb but no oil and Iran has oil and a nuclear plant under construction (thanks Russia). Poor Iraq has oil but no bomb (yet?) and it is already partitioned via the north and south "no fly zones" and it has UN weapon inspectors crawling all over it like ants. So which clear and present danger gets a visit from four carrier task forces? The one that openly challenges US$ hegemony. The coming war will be an object lesson for other oil producers who might seek to accept Euros for their oil.

Recall that in 1991, the US required Saudi Arabia to pay $30 billion or so for America's mercenary forces to save the royal family's reign. Also - What did Secretary of State James Baker say the 1991 Iraqi war was all about? Oil and the American way of life!

The EU who imports better than 70% of its oil from the Middle East (30% from the North Sea, Norway and Russia) and who desperately (but patiently) wants to acquire the "exorbitant privilege" of issuing colorful currency in exchange for vital commodities will continue to be middle of the road on the question of war with Iraq. Its simply in their own economic and national interest.

Are you giant-like yet?

TownCrier

(01/10/2003; 12:41:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94058)

Reserve Bank of India seeking outlet for its piles of dollars?

http://www.business-standard.com/today/story.asp?Menu=24&story=5720Mumbai, Published : January 11, 2003

Senior bankers and foreign exchange dealers do not expect any major changes in the forex flows immediately, even as finance minister Jaswant Singh announced a slew of measures taking the country one step forward towards full convertibility of the rupee.

Traders said the currency did not react to news that the government had relaxed overseas investment norms. ... The finance minister's announcement aims at triggering demand for dollars. "But sentiment towards the dollar does not get altered merely because regulations now permit you to freely invest in it," said a forex dealer.

The consensus among forex dealers is that with the RBI facing liquidity management problems due to its relentless mop up of dollars, it is but apt that norms pertaining to overseas investments are relaxed further.

------(article at url)------

Through days past, India's central bank has been glutted with dollars as locals convert export earnings for rupees. As has been typical of central banks the world over, the RBI had opted to sit on these funds as reserves rather than sell them back to the U.S. for anything other than Treasury paper.

A good model for the future for central banks everywhere is to channel these types of non-domestic funds toward bidding for gold on the open market -- to serve as a very public judge proclaiming the shifting value of these currencies and their excesses.

A plan that's good for them, good for you, too.

R.

DoubleEagle

(01/10/2003; 12:48:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94059)

Brewing is hardly a mismanaged telecom...

www.millerbrewing.com/pressRoom/newReleasesDetails.asp?ideanumber=67Heard on NPR this morning that Miller was closing a brewery in Washington state, with another 400 or so bones added to Black Blade's metaphorical pile. We're certainly no strangers to such annoucements, but I was struck that something so mundane as a brewery was closing. It's not an airline or an Enron, and people like to drink at just about anytime. I would have thought it was like toilet paper, with a steady demand outside of a crappy economy. Oh well, it was just 400 well-paying union jobs. Surely something in the "service" industry will open up soon.

-DoubleEagle (Happy to be classified as an "essential" city government employee in a town with a well diversified economy.)

DoubleEagle

(01/10/2003; 12:51:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94060)

Sorry guys...

Never posted a link before. Looks like I needed the http: at the beginning. The info is easily found on the Miller website, but be warned, if you're an underage goldbug, you'll have to lie to get in!

-DoubleEagle

TownCrier

(01/10/2003; 12:53:55 MDT - Msg ID: 94061)

"The dollar suffered a broad-based sell-off..."

http://www.sanluisobispo.com/mld/sanluisobispo/business/financial_markets/4913224.htmHEADLINE: Jobs report whips dollar

NEW YORK - The dollar suffered a broad-based sell-off on Friday, falling to a three-year low against the euro after the December U.S. jobs report was significantly weaker than expected.

...regarding North Korea's decision to pull out of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Cheney said the decision was not unexpected, but the announcement was a "serious concern" to the world.

"There is hawkish war talk coming out of Cheney and I think that is going to keep the dollar under pressure," said Russell LaScala, chief dealer at Citibank in New York.

"The euro up-trend is intact. We are closing higher on the week given we are above the key $1.0510 area, so I think the dollar is going to remain under pressure going into next week as well," LaScala added.

John McCarthy at ING said, "People are buying all the European currencies against the dollar and I see no reason for that not to continue."

"The North Korea developments were not entirely unexpected, but clearly any kind of added potential for disasters puts added pressure on the dollar, creating a flight to safety such as the Swiss franc or investors bringing their money closer to home," said Tod Van Name, senior vice president in the FX group at Mizuho Corporate Bank in New York.

-----(url for text)-------

Join other thoughtful investors and call USAGOLD-Centennial with your order to get your purchase price locked and in the pipeline ahead of the weekend.

R.

canamami

(01/10/2003; 13:14:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94062)

Who will win.....

...the battle of $355.00? The Kursk of the 2003 GOLD WAR.

TownCrier

(01/10/2003; 13:21:01 MDT - Msg ID: 94063)

HEADLINE: Gold futures' one week gain at $5

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/iwon-com/news-story.asp?guid={C5C499AD-F6C4-40F4-B388-B1D35B3FC847}NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- After a slow start, gold futures prices made a fresh attempt at a six-year high Friday, trading above $356 an ounce and logging a gain of $5 for the week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for February delivery traded at $356.20 an ounce, up $2.50 after an earlier low at $350.50. A week ago, the contract closed at $351.60. It started the year at $348.20. Friday's high of $356.50 is just short of the March 1997 high of $356.60, according to Haver Analytics.

Overall, the trend for gold is up, Erik Gebhard, an analyst at Altavest.com said. "It would take either an insane or reckless bear to step in front of this bullish freight train."

------(article at url)-----

With precious little physical connection to the Comex "marketplace", I would make the following amendment to the portion of the article (given above) that reads, "On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for February delivery traded at $356.20..."

Here is the amendment:

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, betting contracts for the placing of wagers on the pre-March "line" on these same contracts were quoted with a current line at $356.20...

Mechanically, that's about the size of it. If it is gold you want, you get it from a gold broker, not a futures broker.

USAGOLD -Centennial stands ready to assist you with arrangements for spot delivery.

R.

cyberbat

(01/10/2003; 13:42:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94064)

Silver

I know that silver is lagging to gold but please remember the trickle down effect. It will take a little while till the sheeple realize what is going on in gold. After it is too late (because of the price) they will ride herd on the poor man's precious metal. That would be silver. They will hit it like a duck on a June bug; then you will see it go for the stratosphere too. Bet on it. I don't believe gold can be stopped now. The smart money is moving there fast. Of course, they will have to look for a good seat to see this show. We all here beat them by a few years.

Belgian

(01/10/2003; 13:44:27 MDT - Msg ID: 94065)

Henry C. K. Liu >>> Asiatimes

Snippits : The US$ is facing a much-delayed exchange rate correction, but it is misleading to conclude that this is the beginning of a collapse of the dollar.

A correction of the US$ up to 20% in relations to select foreign currencies would have positive temporary effects on current account balances in trade, but it will NOT solve the structural problems in world trade.

Tokyo and Washington are jointly pushing for a Plaza Accord type move against China to push up the yuan on the theory that China is exporting deflation, a view that China rejects.

The exchange value of the dollar is not as important an issue as the dollar's dominant position as a reserve currency for world trade and finance, wich tilts trade as a vehicle to forcibly transfer global "wealth" to the issuer of the dollar, namely the US. End snippits.

The above analysis of Liu, contains all known elements of the present global-economical, catch 22 situation. But Liu appears to be a "status quo" believer on the condition that "structural problems" in trade are solved. Note that he refers to structural (systemic) problems of the dollar-reserve-currency (block) AND trade with all the China's of this globe.

It amazes me that Liu doesn't mention the euro. Yes Euroland also has structural problems, but these are not of monetary nature. Why can't the euro-currency be a candidate to solve the the global trade's structural problems, by taking over from the dollar's reserve function ? Liu doesn't say a word about it as if the euro doesn't exist for him. Strange !? But I've send him a little note about it. Will see.

Reread the Duisenberg Q & A that Randy posted yesterday and read between the lines of Duisenberg's disciplined answers about the euro gaining dept.

What might happen when the world finds out that the dollar-reserve is "linked" to Gold and the candidate reserve-euro is "supported" by Gold ? Is this growing China, accumulating US$ as De Gaulle's France did before 1971...WITH EURO_DOLLARS ? Le Generale exchanged those euro-dollars for US Gold exchange reserves...just in time before the Gold-window was closed.

May I repeat again that the open Gold value calculations (mark to market) by the ECB, proclaim the ECB's intention to allow Gold to rise as an EURO_ENHANCEMENT !!! (not replacement) . This with ONE purpose : GOLD MUST STOP TO ACT AS CREDIT MONEY (right Christian ?)

When I observed POG's behavior IN EURO this morning...my intuition said that it was the ECB (BIS) who was in charge of Gold's pricing and not the dollar linked to Gold.
In other words : Is Euroland moving POG to enhance the euro (since 1999) and the dollar-exchange rate simply following with adjustment or the other way around ? Can we find BIS > LBMA derivative Gold-traces to evidence the above ?
Is the euro taking the initiatives to sollicite for the new exchange currency and does the dollar let the euro do the job ? Is it coincidence that bb mentioned UBS/DRESDNER-eurobanks, being active in Gold, today ?

Yes POG moves in function of the euro/dollar exchange rate.
We only have to find evidence of who is initiating what moves. All commentators still stick to the old dynamics of a declining dollar equal to POG-rise. I think the euro is in charge of the exchange rate by means of POG !? Hardiest evidence for this so far is the rapid rise of the euro against the dollar to parity from its 30% arrears. This was very remarkable. The dollar-block wanted to drawn the euro as soon as the currency would come into circulation !

We must not forget that the runup to the euro was heavely countered by instrument of the UK (Thatcher period).

When will we hear from financial observers that the euro/dollar-struggle is been fought upon the stashes of Gold
exchange reserve - VALUATIONS ?

(Thanks CoBra for the understanding. Austria-1 / Belgium-0)

sector

(01/10/2003; 14:14:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94066)

@The Traveler

First Iraq, then Iran, then Saudi ArabiaLike the Sudetenland, Poland and the Netherlands. Circa. 1938.

Might makes right.

Until someone intervenes.

a nation of one

(01/10/2003; 14:22:58 MDT - Msg ID: 94067)

...

Gold will hit 360 in the next session.

admin

(01/10/2003; 14:50:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94069)

All. . .

No individual stock promos pls. We all post by the same rules in the best interest of all participants. Thank you for your co-operation.

Belgian

(01/10/2003; 15:04:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94070)

@ Traveler # 94057 Great posting.

Yes, Iraq said it loud and clear : Oil for euro !
You probably do agree that this, oil for euro, is much more than a simple wave of anti-dollar-americanism ? No Sir, this idea is a much more profound (euro) inspiration. Note that no further comments were made in any media when Iraq was talking loud up. If this oil for euro was only a trial balloon, the media would have made a laughing stock about it. No, there was absolute deafening silence as so often when something serious is being said. Iraq should have remain silent about the pending concept as to not compromise the work-out of it in collaboration with Saudi Arabia (Iran).

It is not oil for euro in the strictiest sence of the currency, but rather oil for a euro-currency, to be enhanced by a free physical euro Goldmarket ! Arabian oil doesn't care what currency it gets for its oil...as long as the "wealth"-part of the oil trade is finally concluded in Gold. Not paper gold or a gold-linked-dollar-paper but with a currency that is intensely gold-related-enhanced.

The pr� 1971 dollar had that gold-status, but lost it completely ! During the past 20 years, oil was served with Gold through the paper-contract market, evolving into the extremes we are witnessing today. High noon for the new gold-enhanced currency !

Now on the occupation of Iraq :

The dies haven't been cast yet imvho. France is making noise, not without any reason . France was also an Iraq (Saddam) intermediair in Gulf war I. It was France that suggested the oil for euro in Portugal. France plays the "intrigant" and w'll see what comes out of it.
Ask yourself "why" Iraq is so co-operative on the inspections ? They are already living 12 years under an oil-embargo. And the whole ME is already 30 years under dollar-dominance. The temptation, for the ME, to try the euro-concept, as a savior, becomes bigger/intenser by the day, and will not go away with an "eleventh hour" occupation of Iraq to re-establish/consolidate, ME total dominance.

Yes, we are balancing on a very old rope indeed. The idea / concept of oil for euro is on that same rope, NOW !

No one is speculating on this in the open for the simple reason that it is sooooooohhh delicate and soooooohhhh dramatic a change for both, dollar and euro.

It is the euro with an enhancing Gold-concept but without an army (yet)...against the dollar with a negative Gold-link but with an enormous army.

Another showed me those Giant footsteps....

Topaz

(01/10/2003; 15:12:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94071)

@Belgian.

The Mbeki visit to London was in response to the announcement of the BoE Gold auctions...he was really pissed off, but came home all smiles. If my assumptions are correct, this token resistance we're seeing ($pog) is short Miner related (the Banks are off the hook). As Sierra mentioned Miner carnage could well be just around the corner.
Should be interesting next week, Stock Market fall, Bonds rallying and Gold limit up..and UP!
We shouldn't discount a Bullion/paper split either.

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 15:31:45 MDT - Msg ID: 94072)

Why Did The Stock Market Perform Today? - Look Out Below

With the gruesome economic data today it certainly appeared that the equities markets were poised for a freefall into oblivion and yet the market indices finished in positive territory. OK, so the S&P finished unchanged but that was an amazing finish too. The reason appears to have absolutely nothing with the fundamentals.

Yesterday General Motors announced that their pension fund was under-funded to the tune of $19.3 Billion. It was announced a short time ago that under funded pension funds were getting a badly needed infusion of investment. Of course the funds for this purpose must come from profits. If the company has any profits then much of that will be set aside for investment purposes. The rumor is that a huge infusion of that cash flooded into the market today. This represents a transfer of wealth from the company owners (shareholders) to the company pension funds. This also means lower earnings on the balance sheet putting pressure on corporate earnings requiring yet another infusion of investment, etc. etc. etc.

At the end of 2000, the 348 S&P 500 companies offering traditional pension funds stashed more than $1 Trillion in investments to cover an estimated $982 Billion in future obligations. Guess what? Two years later that stash plummeted to $892 Billion while payments surged to $1.2 Trillion. That is a gap of $323 Billion that will come out of corporate earnings. Now with extremely high debt levels (and rising) and a stock market under severe pressure it does not take a rocket scientist to understand what will happen � yes "will happen". Shareholders will soon see the writing on the wall as corporate profits fall and debt levels rise. There is only one possible outcome � investors will "run like the blazes" selling out of the market triggering a steep fall in the equities markets. Not that the economy is looking very rosy now. We must now accept that this year will finish in negative territory � sharply negative � maybe even giving Wall Street that dreaded "Capitulation" they have been looking for.

Who are the top names ready to do their part of skimming the profits? I have compiled a "short list" of the big names:

Phillips Petroleum � under funded 39.8% - shortfall $2.585 Billion
ExxonMobil � under funded 34.1% - shortfall $$11.011 Billion
Delphi Automotive � under funded 28% - shortfall $$18.811 Billion
Conoco � under funded 27.9% - shortfall $1.26 Billion
Pharmacia � under funded 26.1 % - shortfall $2.32 Billion
*United Airlines � under funded 25% - shortfall $12.615 Billion
Freddie Mac � under funded 22.3% � shortfall $219 Million
Coca Cola � under funded 21.7% shortfall $2.32 Billion
Merck � under funded 20.7% - shortfall $4.359 Billion
United Technologies � under funded 18.9% - shortfall $14.683 Billion

*UAL is bankrupts so both employees and shareholders are screwed.

This of course is just the "short list" and only a small segment of the affected companies. Obviously the "New Depression" is almost here. President Bush's "economic stimulus package" notwithstanding, this is the endgame people. The situation is more dire than the primates of Wall Street are willing to admit. Maybe war will soften the blow � maybe not. Time is running short. If you are not set up with wealth preservation vehicles like Gold and Silver then just kiss your ass goodbye. Unless you live on a farm and are able to fend for yourselves the game is about over. Maybe the government will step in to change the rules of the game but even then I have my doubts.

As always get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

- Black Blade
Off to the gym!!!

Topaz

(01/10/2003; 15:34:09 MDT - Msg ID: 94073)

@Maverick1

A strange "quiet" on the Priest front here too Mav...maybe His Holiness ponied up some Bullion to quell the noise?
They (the Catholics) are so open to this type of "blackmail" given the celebacy issue...sadly.

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 15:42:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94074)

News Flash!!!

Two more Navy amphibious ships with 7,000 Marines are set to sail for the Persian Gulf and 35,000 will get deployment orders tonight! Secretary of State Colin Powell announced "the US reserves the right to engage Iraq militarily regardless of the UN". The move toward war just moved up a notch. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Topaz

(01/10/2003; 15:44:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94075)

...further Mav.

There's a "media blackout" on reporting youth suicide here...the average Joe is totally oblivious to the fact that our youth are dying in record numbers..and consequently NOTHING is being done. The problem is real and present tho.

Paper Avalanche

(01/10/2003; 16:16:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94076)

Couldn't happen to a nicer state - Commiefornia

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A39084-2003Jan10.htmlSnip:

California Gov. Calls for Tax Increases

By Alexa H. Bluth
Associated Press Writer
Friday, January 10, 2003; 3:48 PM

SACRAMENTO, Calif. �� Gov. Gray Davis proposed deep cuts in schools, health and welfare and called for $8.3 billion in tax increases on shoppers, smokers and the wealthy Friday to help close a nearly $35 billion budget deficit.

End snip

BTW, if you make more than $15,000/year in Commiefornia you are "wealthy."

People deserve the government they choose.

Paper Avalanche

Skydog

(01/10/2003; 17:00:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94077)

Black Blade, your #94072 is a classic example...

of the kind of commentary on this forum (and others) that was the wake-up call to my wife and I 21/2 years ago when we had practically all our retirement invested in high tech.

As I mentioned in a post late last year, we bailed out of our tech positions just as the Nas was crossing 4400 and heading into oblivion. We took that money and invested in bullion coins, foreign currencies (hedge against a $ that we believed was way over valued even then), and quality Canadian mining stocks.

Seldom do I ever give investment advice, but anyone still in the market needs to read and heed Black Blades post and GET THE HELL OUT immediately no matter how far down you are. This thing's going to go and when it does, it won't be back in my lifetime or yours either if you are over 30.

One other thing we take very seriously is the imminent threat of terrorism. We live 13 miles downwind of some of the largest petro/chemical complexes in the world near Houston. We have an excape route planned that includes bio-hazard suits, respirators and drinking water that is carried in the vehicle with us where ever we go.

Paranoid? Maybe...then again, maybe not!!

Best to all,
Skydog

The Traveler

(01/10/2003; 17:04:58 MDT - Msg ID: 94078)

@Belgian (#94070)

Thanks, Belgian, for your compliment and subsequent post. As a Friend of this forum over the years, your shared wisdom has deepened my gold education just as Another did to yours.

All politics, nationalism and religious differences aside, your point that Arabian oil simply wants to trade its excess tangible oil wealth for tangible gold wealth is a concept all must firmly grasp in order to begin their understanding of the geopolitical chess game that has been unfolding for four decades. I fear that many come too late to this understanding as the end game is at hand and they have precious little time to prepare for the adjustments to come.

I too prefer the wealth of ages for my excess labor and production (savings) rather than fancy colored paper that is a dubious claim on strangers who are often militant and xenophobic.

The choice between a young, gold enhanced Euro (supported by mark-to-market valuation of the Euro to the price of Free Gold) or an old paper gold-linked $ (supported by "managed" mark-to-market valuation of gold to the dollar via COMEX trading) seems easy to me. The challenge for all who understand is how to quietly and patiently transition from one reserve currency to the new reserve currency without incurring the wrath of Washington.

Iraq failed the challenge and unless the EU and ME saves them by buying sufficient time to allow the US economy to whither further, cheap oil purchased in US$ will continue.

Are you giant-like yet?

Dollar Bill

(01/10/2003; 17:13:59 MDT - Msg ID: 94079)

The sky is not falling skydog

The fed can inflate the assets underpinning the retirement accounts.
The stock market is not out there on a limb without very big forces watching and not willing to see it crumble.
If you are playing Monopoly with your kids, and someone gets in trouble, or you all get in trouble, you change the rules.
As long as the other central bankers are on board, and they are, although they might wish things were different, the game is to inflate assets, and the fiat currencies.
This they shall do.

Cavan Man

(01/10/2003; 17:38:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94080)

@Dollar Bill

Your assessment or the A/FOA scenario leads gold (much) higher still; both in absolute values and in percentage valuation. The jrs. is the place to look for leverage. Physical necessary and good for all seasons!

Dollar Bill

(01/10/2003; 17:51:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94081)

bond king tellls the tale

Pimco's Paul McCulley, who said "America needs to inflate the money stock, while devaluing it against gold, so as to keep private sector debt obligations from sinking into a deflationary abyss. And the world needs the same thing: a broad based, wholesale devaluation of all paper currencies versus a basket of globally-traded 'stuff.'"

There you have it.

Mr Gresham

(01/10/2003; 17:53:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94082)

Pension shortfalls

Black Blade & others: Curious about whether pension liabilities like we've been seeing can be a direct push toward bankruptcy, as with outside creditors, or are they in a different ("Oh, we're SO sorry...") category.

I guess this is what the Federal PBG-whatever-whatever Fund was supposed to cover against by insuring these, and take the heat off the corporations, but is there a class action or other backup remedy for the retirees to have the company liquidated if they're the only big creditor who might want to push for that?

Sierra Madre

(01/10/2003; 18:07:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94083)

Dollar Bill: about "inflating assets".

I think you have a thing or two to experience yet, in your life. "Inflating assets" means that, for instance, a pack of cigarettes can cost $1,000 (one thousand dollars). Sure, that's the way the pension plans can be fulfilled by the major corporations, but- what will the old people collecting the pensions be able to BUY with the pension money? Inflated bread, butter, cereal and milk? Or cat food?

Some people still have unquestioned faith in the power of the State to make all things right for them. They are all in for a great disappointment, to put it mildly.

Skydog: Great to hear how you managed to avoid disaster! Good for you and your wife! You have done the right things to prepare for the Perfect Storm. Now, if I may make a suggestion, make an effort to erradicate fear from your lives. Do not live in Fear!

Sierra

goldenboy

(01/10/2003; 18:31:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94084)

@Dollar Bill: Fed Inflation of Pension Assets

I am not so sure the fed can inflate the value of the pension fund assets of corporate America without causing a major hit to earnings.
First of all, most pension funds are stuck with a percentage holding of bonds that really cannot change much, according to formulae they need to preserve. As bonds mature, what % will their replacements return? Can a pension fund really take advantage of their bond capital gains? What bond will they replace it with at what yield?
Pension funds assume an 8.5 to 9% average yield. Is this realistic? Fund managers will say, some years are good, some bad. The basic problem is many take pension holidays during good times, but are reluctant to assume the worst case scenario when things turn bad. What kind of earnings hit does GM take if the realistic pension return for the next 10 years is 5%. (might be optimistic if todays interest rates are frozen to declining.
This is the real key, that interest rates cannot remain at current low levels without ironically causing their own kind of damage.
If interest rates stay low, they will pound the pension liabilities of corporations and earnings which will drive stocks, the other component of pension funds ever lower.
IMO low interest rates were perceived as cake, but there are a few pebbles that now have to be swallowed.
If you were preparing a business plan for someone, would you promise a 9% return for a portfolio that had to have 60% or better bonds in it, with the balance being stocks?

Cavan Man

(01/10/2003; 18:47:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94085)

Dollar Bill

And that is exactly what FOA said would happen! The Euro was built with this in mind out of necessity and yes, reserve currency envy. The difference: in the dollar world, gold is your enemy and the price of gold is "managed". Official reserves are still carried at what, about $44/OZ? In the Euro zone, AU will be used to offset dollar weakness as the price is free (at least for the forseeable future). In the Euro zone, AU is votre ami.

What say you Euro Bill?

Bulldog

(01/10/2003; 18:59:09 MDT - Msg ID: 94086)

BB post, if no gold or silver, kiss your ass goodbye

You are having quite a day! How much gold and silver do you figure is required?

knotakare

(01/10/2003; 19:48:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94087)

Western Civilization on the brink

Now that we see that the Briton's do not back Bush's imminent invasion of Iraq, and many in France call for the trading of oil in Euro's, I do not think that some of you have thought through the strategic implications of how this all will possibly play out.

1. I don't think the US War Empire is concerned about European and or Japenese security. With the rising tide of the Chinese and also the new "Soviet" military might, Europe is left to fend for itself. The same is true in Japan. If you think that Uncle Sam will stand behind its currency and debt at this stage, I think you are in for a big surprise. Soon this will be true of her security agreements.

2. The US and British Government's concern is for their member banks and transnational corporations. The western countries have a vast amount of governmental and pension related liabilities which they will never pay, and a retrenchment is the next step.

3. A golbal depression is already upon us, the key concern of all the world's people will be Security and Survival. Each country will have to pay for it's own security arrangements, because the promises of NATO and other treaties will not be reliable.

4. Prepare for massive and devasting war across the globe sometime in the next 20 years.

5. The Euro, just like the dollar, will not exist in 20 years.

I say this, not to alarm people, but because I see that we face enormous peril, and no-one can know for sure how it will all play out. The challenge for all of us, is to continue to live with dignity and to not live in fear.

Tacitus

(01/10/2003; 19:52:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94088)

The Philosophy of John Bogle

Dear Fellow Members of the Discussion Forum,

This past year I have studied the writings of Mr. John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Mutual Fund Company. I think he can be of help to all of us who still risk money in Stocks and Bonds.

Check out Vanguard.com. There is a section on that Website entitled, The Bogle Financial Markets Research Center. I would refer you especially to the following articles: "The Wisdom of Investment - The Folly of Speculation.", "The Dream of a Perfect Plan", "Investing with Simplicity", and "Don't Count on It! The Perils of Numeracy."

The more I read his materials, the more I appreciate his genius. His book, Common Sense in Mutual Funds, New Imperatives for the Investor, is the best. Hope you find him helpful or at least thought provoking.

Salve,
Tacitus

Tacitus

(01/10/2003; 19:59:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94089)

Hail to the Chief

Dear Knotakare,

Don't make the mistake so many keep making. Do not underestimate George W. Bush. When I see how this guy has offered the world leadership, and how he handles the politics of leadership, I am amazed. He has a great team and I say he knows what he is doing. He won't let us down.

Fear not,
Tacitus

Liberty Head

(01/10/2003; 20:36:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94090)

RE Tacitus-Hail to the Chief

May I suggest you consider the option of putting your faith in yourself and the values articulated in the U.S. Constitution. People can let you down, especially, politicians. Fire Bush the cheif of your domain, appoint yourself as his replacement, then say Hail to the Cheif.

Cheers

sector

(01/10/2003; 20:38:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94091)

@ Dollar Bill -- Government Inflating Pension Assets...

...The government can and is doing by......artificially levitated the DOW. They get into a bit of trouble when they have to run it back up through 10,000, as DOW earnings will stay where they are but hey...what else is a government for?

As for the pension bond returns...that too is a bit difficult but not impossible through skillful switching in funds from the bankrupt bonds to the newly created bonds. California's upcoming debt auction is an example. EVERYBODY is gonna want those .

Pimco's McCauley is indeed right on when he sees a horizon of dollar inflation and a devaluation against gold. Our "New" currency will play a role in that deval, so will Japan's. In all likelihood, they will be simultaneously released to the world at the exact moment of least vigilance. During the densest fog of war. Well Before Easter.

War will get the blame for high gold�yet another government propaganda trick to keep "Long-term" investors wary of gold. But it won't stop the rise to gold's equilibrium level. More importantly it won't stop the run of gold AFTER the historic mean vs. inflation prices are reached.

The big shocker will be to the gold market "experts" who "Wait" for gold to fall after it's necessary gap up.

Tacitus

(01/10/2003; 20:59:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94092)

Its Chief not Cheif

Liberty Head,

Come on, you're such a party pooper. We all need our heroes. I'm a great guy but W. has got it all over me. So why don't you join my George W. fan club?!

To do so all you have to do is say something nice about Dubya.

Salve,
Tacitus

Cavan Man

(01/10/2003; 21:07:09 MDT - Msg ID: 94093)

Tacitus

I refer you to an excellent read: "Fooled By Randomness"

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 21:15:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94094)

Re: Bulldog, all

Bulldog: "How much gold and silver do you figure is required?"

Actually that's a good question (and surprisingly one I am asked quite often). If the markets come apart how much will Gold and Silver be worth and how much purchasing power will they have? I don't know, however, we have several examples throughout history and even fairly recent history. We know that precious metals tend to rise proportionately with inflation so purchasing power is preserved. We can look at the extreme examples of the hyperinflationary Weimar Republic as an example or we can even look at more recent examples in Indonesia and Argentina. We know that the precious metals perform well in times of deflation. The examples here are less clear as during the time of the Great Depression gold ownership was illegal (except for collectable coin and jewelry), however, the value of the dollar fell as the US government debased the currency from $35 an ounce to about $42 an ounce. Of course purchasing power of the dollar remained stable or even improved somewhat. But if we were to look at how the stock market imploded and we used the shares of Homestake Mining as a gold proxy (remember Gold ownership was illegal), the shares performed exceptionally well and paid out a very healthy dividend. Homestake was literally digging money out of the ground and production costs continued to fall lower increasing the profit picture. Today we see Japan in a deflationary crisis. What is the government doing? They are debasing the currency (gee here we go again). What is the smart money doing? The people are buying Gold.

So how much Gold and Silver is required? Required for what? Survival or transporting wealth across a long term drawn out economic crisis? It depends on your comfort level. I just took a quick look at my portfolio (stock � includes trusts and partnerships, cash, and metals). I have about 32.9% in physical precious metals in various forms � but that's my comfort level (especially now). Some would feel that this is excessive and others � I guess "true Goldbugs" � would prefer much more. The old traditional recommendation of money managers and (gulp) even Wall Street used to be 5% to as high as 10% - times have certainly changed. I view physical precious metals as portfolio insurance more than as an investment per se, but I am comfortable with that much of a position. I also have about 26% in unhedged, debt free, profitable Gold shares, 31% energy investments, 6% cash, and the rest in pharmaceutical/biotech shares. As I said, it comes down to your comfort level, but at least take some insurance position. We insure our lives, health, home, autos, etc. It makes perfect sense to insure your portfolio too.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Tacitus

(01/10/2003; 21:30:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94095)

How Much Gold Is Needed?

To whom it concerns,

What percentage investment in Gold would offset the damage of a hyperinflation scenario? I came across a statement made by Michael J. Kosares. In his book, The ABCs of Gold Investment, page 12 he wrote, "A 25 percent to 30 percent portfolio diversification into gold would have recouped nearly everything that was lost in the peso and equites markets!" He wrote this in regard to the December 1994 collapse of the Mexican peso.

Whether such a percentage diversification would do the same for us in the USA if we were faced with a dollar collapse, I don't know. I think so. But I would like to see somebody explain the economics or the mechanics behind such an event.

Salve,
Tacitus

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 21:31:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94096)

Re: Mr. Gresham

It kind of makes you wonder doesn't it. Who knows, maybe the government will step in an give the companies a bye on this mess by changing the law. However, that will spook a lot of retirees and employees who are counting on these funds as a source of income in their later years. Those who saw what happened to Enron and WorldCon should take notice. In the meantime disaster looms as profits are used to fund pension plans and shareholders bail on diminishing returns creating even more under funding spooking more shareholders who will bail on ever decreasing returns and so on. And all this on top of crushing record debt levels (corporate, consumer, and government), rising energy prices, geopolitical concerns, etc.

As I have said, if you are unprepared then you can just stick your head between your knees and kiss your ass goodbye. I hope to Hell it doesn't come to that because we are nowhere near as able to care for ourselves as a society as our parents and grandparents were when we were more of a rural society then. I shudder to think what people in this day and age would do. It's a cinch that we would lose ever more freedoms as had happened then. Quite a lot to think about for sure.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Tacitus

(01/10/2003; 21:37:48 MDT - Msg ID: 94097)

Cavan Man, Say What?

Dear Cavan Man,

Fooled by Randomness? Help me unpack that kernal. Are you throwing away John Bogle, George W. or what? There is nothing random about Bogle, Bush or me. At worst our premises may be wrong.

But the question is which ones? Help us in our search for truth by pointing out our false premises, but our logic is like steel. Find a week link there and you are truly a genius.

boldly submitted,
Tacitus

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 21:54:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94098)

Market Wrap Up � Hartman

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm
Snippit:

Different Inflation Than The 1970's

After the monetary inflation of the sixties, the excess money creation caused the price of consumer goods to go through the roof. That is what most people think of as inflation. This time around it is different. The excess money creation of the nineties (enormous by all historical standards) resulted in higher prices for financial assets. While Alan Greenspan warned of "irrational exuberance" he provided the necessary fuel to send the stock market into the blow-off phase. After three years of stock market declines, we are still witnessing the bust in financial assets subsequent to the credit induced boom. Wealth can not be created by borrowing and printing money. What concerns me now is the fact that we are trying to fix our economic problems with the very same tools that created the problems in the first place. Here are a few graphs to ponder as we look to see the effects of a falling dollar. To the question above, "What is the best kind of money?" it sure looks like the euro has been a better money than the US dollar over the last year. How about gold? Is it money? While it is not used much to facilitate trade, it has done a much better job than the dollar as a storehouse of value.

Pimco's Paul McCulley Says...

Paul McCulley manages many, many billions of dollars for Pimco's bond funds and is highly respected on the Street. Mr. McCulley explains it this way, "Over thirty years ago, America was forced to bust up the Bretton Woods arrangements, because America didn't want to deflate sufficiently to keep gold from rising above $35 an ounce. Today, just the opposite problem exists: America needs to inflate the money stock, while devaluing it against gold, so as to keep private sector debt obligations from sinking into a deflationary abyss. And the world needs the same thing: a broad based, wholesale devaluation of all paper currencies versus a basket of globally-traded �stuff�." It seems strange to hear one of our country's biggest bond gurus calling for devaluation. Note that he is suggesting a broad based devaluation of all paper currencies. If all currencies are devalued proportionately, there is really no net difference.

Black Blade: Mike Hartman is filling in for Puplava for the Market Wrap Up. Today's Wrap Up fits well with tonight's discussion.

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 22:10:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94099)

America's Fiscal Pitfalls - Stephen Roach (New York)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030110-fri.html#anchor0
Snippit:

Washington is coming to the rescue of a deflation-prone US economy. Or at least it is attempting to do so. The Federal Reserve has led the way, and now the fiscal authorities are joining in. While Republicans and Democrats differ on tactics, they agree on the general dosage of fiscal stimulus over the next year -- about $100 billion, or 1% of gross domestic product. I applaud this rare bipartisan consensus.

Yet, if anything, a short-term stimulus of this magnitude might actually be too little. That's because the United States is close to the brink of outright deflation. For the economy as a whole, GDP-based inflation slowed to just +0.8% in 3Q02, the lowest rate in nearly half a century. Another year of subpar economic growth in the 2% vicinity -- pretty much my personal prognosis -- could well find inflation moving even lower, possibly flirting with the "zero" threshold of outright deflation. The authorities must do everything in their power to avoid such an outcome.

Black Blade: This one is good too � worth reading. Roach thinks that Deflation is the real threat. I think we are precariously close to the edge but events are so similar to those of the 1970's I lean toward Stagflation myself. The US must weaken the dollar and they will likely fire up the presses as stated by Greenspan and Bernanke flipping us into inflation with slow/no growth with an "energy crisis" to boot � just like the 1970's. Except it won't necessarily be oil, but NatGas/electricity that will be the driving force. And just as Nixon tried to impose price controls exacerbating the economic crisis, I suspect that politicians will make the same errors again. We never learn from history. However, if the Fed does not fire up the presses to weaken the dollar then Deflation could be a very real possibility. As it is we are engaged with the Japanese and others in a "Currency War". These are "Interesting Times"

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 22:20:11 MDT - Msg ID: 94100)

California Gov. Calls for Tax Increases

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A39084-2003Jan10?language=printer
Snippit:

SACRAMENTO, Calif. �� Gov. Gray Davis proposed deep cuts in schools, health and welfare and called for $8.3 billion in tax increases on shoppers, smokers and the wealthy Friday to help close a nearly $35 billion budget deficit.

Black Blade: "Red" Davis is a real piece of work. Taxing into prosperity? Hmmm�

physicalman

(01/10/2003; 22:20:16 MDT - Msg ID: 94101)

russian gold reserves

http://www.cbr.ru This is the Bank of Russia's web site. You can go to the top right corner for the english version. Their gold reserves are at 3.739 billion US with a set value of 300 USD per oz. They keep accumulating every month.
Did some figuring on their curreny and if it was backed by gold what would be the %. 12,463,333 oz. au times $300 times 31.83 rubles per USD=119.012 billion. Supply of cash rubles 922.1 billion divided = 12.9%.
Hmmm, at the rate they are accumulating gold reserves they will be at euro rate of 15% by May.
Any thoughts?

Tacitus

(01/10/2003; 22:22:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94102)

Black Blade's reflections

Dear Black Blade,

Interesting postings. I don't get too concerned about modest inflation or deflation, or a falling dollar or the rising dollar. I do but I don't. I wish our dollar would be stable like gold has been historically in its buying power. However, moderate inflation makes debt payment easier whereas deflation can make buying easier. They are both goods, depending whether you are a debtor or a creditor. Then as creditors buy, prices can inflate. It is an equalibrium. Same with the dollar. A weak dollar encourages foreign investment and spending in our country which then strengthens the dollar, while a strong dollar discourages it.

What I think is most important is the productivity of the average American. The more productive the av. Amer. the wealthier we all are, the less productive, the poorer we all are. That is the economic indicator I like to watch. If we become a little less productive each year for say 10 years in a role, then I would get nervous. Last I read, Americans, 4% of the world's population, produces 25% of the world's goods. I think that is pretty good. If that changes for the worse, then I would worry.

As far as the tools the government uses to fix things, I don't know what to make of the raising and lowering of the interest rates. I think it isn't that important. I wish the government would put into place better foundations for the future. For example, I would like to see more efficiency. That is, programs that get something done for the public. That way, with fewer taxes, more could be done. All resources need to be used more efficiently. That will be the secret to greater productivity and thus greater wealth all around.

A lot of this stuff I am sure you already know. There, however, are my two cents in very rough form.

Salve,
Tacitus

Galearis

(01/10/2003; 22:34:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94103)

@ cyberbat on silver

Well, I agree!. This is a belated comment to the thread the other day about margin requirements for silver. There was some discussion about how there was little INCREASE in the $1350 requirement for silver, but surprisingly little about why the margin should be $50 higher than that of gold for a $4.80 something per ounce real asset . Give me a break! If this is not a measure of terror, I do not know what should be!

Has anyone been looking at the other pms this past week, Pd, Pd, Rh, to see that they too are on the tear. But lo and behold poor old put (no pun) upon silver just (barely) holds the head up so tiredly and dejectedly. Fear not, that is the metaphorical Rocky on the ropes from his last opponent(s).
Do not fear, my friend, the relative non-performance is the sign that this one is truly the champion about to get his wind in the race. All the bad guys go after champions, don't you know!

I do not post often anymore on this forum, but the theme of anti-silver should occasionally be exorcised, er, exercised, er, explained, oh heck, balanced. The anti-silver argument is ridiculous. It may even possible for it to cross gold (albeit at the low levels of lows of the past market - or slightly better) when it runs out! And run out (dead market) it will surely be. Something this vital will NEVER EVER BE worth half a cuppa coffee, my friend.

Best regards, and probably for the last time,

(SMILE)

G.

Nibelung

(01/10/2003; 22:34:46 MDT - Msg ID: 94104)

@tacitus

Tacitus,

Regarding your recent post in which you observe that american citizens produce 25% of the world's goods, my reaction is that his is highly improbable.

It is possible that by some sort of creative yardstick or other, the US GNP, INCLUDING SERVICES (including financial), might be stretched somehow to account for 25% of global GDP. But it is highly improbable that US citizens produce 25% of the world's goods.

You may find it illuminating to further investigate this matter.

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 22:35:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94105)

Brrrrr��..

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=2
The Artic Blast � Siberian Express Is Here! (see link)

- Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 22:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94106)

Tacitus. . .Thank you for the kind mention of The ABCs of Gold Investing

The same 30% gold diversification would have accomplished the same effect during the Indonesian, Korean, Thai, Argentinian (most recent) as well as the Mexican monetary crises. (That was just an example.) It would have also accomplished the same effect in the United States during the 1970s (and did). What we called the Asian contagion is little more than the universal symptoms accompanying the breakdown of a fiat money economy, so we won't have the excuse after the Paper Rush that we didn't know which disease we were fighting. I have said many times that the first victim of the Asian contagion was the United States. . . .from 1971 thru 1980. The rest have followed the same transcript and in most cases more severely so. The United States could very well be the final victim of the Asian contagion as it comes full circle -- the final victim before the onset of a new monetary system agreed to by the world's great manufacturing, technological and trading nations, and one in which gold will play a significant role as Alan Greenspan hinted in his most recent, oft-quoted policy speech.

Fiat money economies all tend to break down in the same way -- a stasis between inflation and deflation called stagflation and disinflation in some circles -- economies characterized by rising prices, bankruptcies and unemployment accompanied by craterimg stock, bond and currency markets. Ravi Batra's analysis comes closest to the real world. He called it an inflationary depression. Same difference. I do not consider his work a prediction or an opinion. It is an observation.

Gold carries the day in such situations. Dr. Batra concurs. 10% will get you through. 20% will help you sleep soundly at night. 30% could make you wealthy. No gold almost insures severe asset losses and in some cases financial ruin. So if you have a friend who thinks you foolish for owning gold, consider who was the fool in Indonesia, Korea, Thailand and Argentina. It most certainly wasn't the individual who had the wisdom to store a little gold. It was not uncommon in most of these countries to see well-heeled individuals lose up to 90% of their assets before the dust settled. The only other workable strategy is trading so well, so fast and making all the right calls so consistently that only a few will make the grade. Otherwise a simple diversification into gold and retiring to the easy chair with remote in hand will get the job done better and with less complications and error. The gold insures the portfolio as Black Blade just explained so clearly. The easy chair and remote insure your comfort and access to events as the world turns. You will not have to spend all your time at the news and business networks.

Primary is not to ignore the opportunity our adversaries have given us (as a byproduct of their fear and arrogance) to accumlate the yellow metal cheaply. Gold is cheap up to $500 an ounce. It will still be a buy up to $750. There may come a time when you can't get it at all. Gold's portfolio role cannot be underplayed in times like these.

knotakare

(01/10/2003; 22:48:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94107)

Deflation

I have given the Deflation or Inflation questions much though over the past year and I just can't get my mind around it. Could it be that S. Roach is right about deflation; this sure seems to be the concern of the fed also.

I know one thing for sure, it will be very difficult to inflate if this economy keeps going down. Frank Smith/Attocha has addressed this issue in dramatic terms on another website. The huge bankruptcies on an ongoing basis are extiquishing a lot of purchasing power (collapse of debt and destruction of equity), and so people are feeling less secure and may at some point stop spending. If that happens the first market to implode would be the high yield/junk bonds. They have already taken a big hit, but it could get a lot worse. then factories and offices start shutting down, but first they will cut prices to move their products and/or services. You can see how this is very deflationary.

In economics we were taught about fractional reserve banking, it was explained as a "multiplier" effect. When you have debt defaults, you do have a reverse multiplier effect. You also have less savings which must be made-up (through less spending) or foregone.

The fed talks about buying back treasury debt, but could this not be considered just more mal-investment? It props up the bond market, but at some point the whole solvency of the Fed may come into question.

I have a hard time getting my mind around all these issues. One thing is for sure, there is a lot of fast money sloshing around on Wall Street, and unless you are an insider I think it is impossible for the small investor to cope with.

Grubstaker

(01/10/2003; 22:54:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94108)

if the shoe fits..

It's hard for me to believe that the most posted member on this forum only holds 32.9% in physical gold. If one is in a postion to offer so much advise he should take his own.
I upped my position to 60% physical gold in April 2001 at the ridiculously low price of $260 an ounce and my "portfolio" is in excess of six digits. By the way the 60% figure was at $300 an ounce...

physicalman

(01/10/2003; 22:58:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94109)

Tacitus

That 25% of the world's goods is a false no. Our GDP may be 1/4 of the world's total every year but that includes all the service business, bank interest (including that of the Fed) fees and taxes (Fed, state and local) It also includes the final retail price for all finished goods sold (durable and non durable) When someone fixes your car and the labor is charged on the ticket, bill that fee is not a good produced, only the parts installed are. When you strip away all the taxes (3 trillion year) Bank fees and interest charged(750 billion) and all the other labor charges and fees such as doctor bills, insurance etc, etc. the amount is much smaller. Then think of how many manufactured goods are imported and you will see after peeling away the layers that actual production of goods is much lower. Take a toyota put together in tenn. Say it retails for 20,000. All the parts for those cars are sent from Japan. Labor cost to assemb. are 1200, 200 shipping from west coast ports, another 200 to store and ship to the dealer. Car is sold to the dealer for 14,800 then dealer sells for list 20,000. Each transfer of this product between parties that report sales or the collection of taxes is compiled into the GDP. 20,000 dealer+400 shipping +14,800 toyota of america+600 sales tax paid on puchase (my home states rate)+300 in federal taxes on every 1200 labor+250 state and local taxes on every 1200 labor to build car ends up in a reporting by all businesses+ govts. of 36,350 in GDP + the personal property taxes charged every year until the car wears out.
One product made and then resold though all the channels until it is sold is reported by each hand along the way and makes GDP swell way beyond the actual productions of goods.
Also the govt. takes the increased power in every PC made or sold in the US and uses that increased computing power in the productivity numbers. Productivity has been negative for the last five years in real terms!

physicalman

(01/10/2003; 23:19:40 MDT - Msg ID: 94110)

Black Blade

http://www.sciencedaily.com Hey buddy, since your a geologist here is a site you might like.

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 23:27:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94111)

U.S. faces worst 2-week cold snap in 7 years-forecast

http://www.cnn.com/2003/WEATHER/01/10/weather.cold.reut/index.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Home heating demand and utility bills are expected to soar as a blast of Arctic air sweeping over the United States will create the coldest two-week period from the Rockies to the Atlantic coast since the winter of 1995-96, forecasters at AccuWeather Inc. said on Friday. The cold weather could compound low U.S. crude oil inventories caused by a workers strike in Venezuela, the fourth largest oil supplier to the United States, the forecasting company said. Joe Bastardi, who is AccuWeather's long-range forecast expert, said the January 10 to January 25 period will be the coldest two-week period in seven years for a large part of the United States and will probably last for the remainder of January. "For people who have been enjoying warmer-than-normal temperatures and lower energy costs, these cold winds will be a slap in the face when they step outside, and a kick in the wallet when they get their heating bills," he said.

Black Blade: A real hit in the wallet all right. We are about to see higher energy costs that will last for several years. Meanwhile the Artic Blast should draw down NatGas supply after last weeks small draw.

Black Blade

(01/10/2003; 23:37:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94112)

Re: physicalman

Oh my, yet another site to "fill" my time ;-)

Thanks,

- Black Blade

Christian

(01/11/2003; 00:08:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94113)

$ = a reverse mortgage on your equity.

The $'s value is (has) deflating because it's quantity in debt form is inflating. A $'s value is debt based, depending on the taxpayer's ability to pay their own and their local, state and federal debt. The $ now is a reverse mortgage on remaining equity be it their own, local, state or federal holdings. This reverse mortgage is paid out over time with $'s worth less. The definition of money will change as the credit component is destroyed, leaving only the tiny cash component. Holdings of precious metal is only one way to stop the credit component from destroying your savings. To the rescue will soon come colored money, the Euro component of the U.S.$. You will be able to exchange your cash be it notes or coin for Euros in digital form (which was the plan all along). The Euro will then become the world's fiat for paying debt just like the dollar is today. Euro's side partner commodity gold will become the currency to hold savings (stored labor) in. The Euro will then deflate until just like the U.S.$ did and a new gold backed currency will emerge to start the process all over.

steady

(01/11/2003; 01:35:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94114)

silver

http://ccdev.lets.net/materials/dinar.htmlrember that along with the gold dinar comes the silver dirham. they have minted both. the historical relationship is
According to Islamic Law...
The Islamic Dinar is a specific weight of gold equivalent to 4.3
grammes.
The Islamic Dirham is a specific weight of silver equivalent to
3.0 grammes.

Umar Ibn al-Khattab established the known standard relationship
between them based on their weights: "7 dinars must be
equivalent to 10 dirhams.

this finally helped me understand what was meant by not at these prices.
as is there enough silver available for this to happen?
NOT AT THESE PRICES THERE ISNT.

Kagalaska

(01/11/2003; 01:39:00 MDT - Msg ID: 94115)

Skating Away on the Thin Ice of a New Day - Jethro Tull 1974

I am amazed at the ambivalence accorded the approaching "Perfect Storm"(Puplava)which sends its clarion call louder each day to thoses who will listen. How are "we"( I hold no paper with in on it)to sell our stocks, cash in "our" futures, ect when all it take is one EMP(Electro Magnetic Pulse)bomb, or one more Worldcom(MCI, ATT ect)network shutdown to cripple or kill the net we rely on for info. When that happens all the electrocredits in the world will mean nothing,because we won'tbe able to get to them, and at some point they will vanish never too be seen again, sorry charlie. All those that crow about a holding in stocks of this or that(pick your favorite flavor)with the pride of a father for a newborn son, what is it worth,a tax write off, bar bragging, fire starters? The elephant is dying, when the ice breaks will you go with him, or do you have a pole long enough to catch solid ice on each side of the hole to save yourself and that which is important to you? What is your exit strategy?--Gather Gold unto thine Ass and maybe some more.( Hopfuly this has been altered enough to avoid even the merest whiff of plagiarism)-Sorry ARI for using your exit salutation in my previous posts.

I love the man that can smile in trouble, gather strength from distress, and grow brave reflection. 'Tis the busines of little minds to shrink, but he whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves his coduct,will pursue his principle unto death.-Thomas Paine, 1737-1809

Be a Good Human- Kagalaska, everyday

Golden Bear

(01/11/2003; 01:47:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94116)

Tacitus (msg#: 94095)

Hello Tacitus,

simple strategy for my modest portfolio is 50:50 physical in possession and cash. I own no shares or bonds. The little that I have in super (aussie version of 401k) is also currently in the cash option. I may dabble in some unhedged gold stocks soon, but I have not decided yet.

As for exact calculations ragarding protection from devaluing currencies, who knows. It has varied from event to event as Sir MK has pointed out.

The way I see it, this strategy is simple and efficient. As we move towards crisis point, the risks for hard earned capital already saved is too great to attempt to seek high returns in other paper based "assets".

Cheers.

Topaz

(01/11/2003; 01:50:15 MDT - Msg ID: 94117)

@knotakare.

The "flation" question is a most complex issue. Where the Admin/Fed look for a resolution is patently obvious via the "fiscal stimulus" package. Middle-upper America and Wall St are the intended beneficiaries...so, by definition, these groups are the "disflationists"...lets say 25% of the population.
The others, "inflationists" albeit a vast majority, and suffering the impact of price inflation, pale to insignificance compared to group A.
Why the attention to A?
If the SM isn't reflated, systemic risk via a T-Bond market collapse is a destinct probability.
Corporate America seems hell-bent on systemic destruction by providing, on an almost daily basis, reasons NOT to reflate.
A wholesale DEflation (futures discounted to Cash) is the hallmark of systemic failure imo.
Physical Gold in possession should find you with not-a-care as surely, under such circumstances "possession" will be 10/10th's of the Law.

Kagalaska

(01/11/2003; 02:11:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94118)

Blanchard quotes

http://www.mips1.net/mggold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043C1B285286CAA007A7563?OpenDocumentSnip: "to have a conspiricy,there must be a violation of laws that apply to the individuals or organizations that are acting in concert. the activity of the central banks in leasing or selling their gold; the activity of the producers in hedging their production; the activity of speculators in taking advantage of the declining market predpitated by those practices may very well serve to suspend the laws of supply and demand. however, it is not clear that any of them, separatly or thgether, constitute illegal activity"

"Many investors investors continue to buy or hold gold in the mistaken belief that gold's historical utility is unchanged"
and more drivel ad nauseam

Topaz

(01/11/2003; 02:16:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94119)

@steady

Hey steady,

The Dirham/Dinar relationship is only a "weight" connection. You'll not find a "value" association one to the other in ANY medium. Mr Market will perform the task.
Thats the mental challenge...to divorce your thinking from a Dollar value based marriage (mirage) to a Metal reality value.
Don't sweat it, I've been trying to for Years and still struggle with the concept.

Topaz

(01/11/2003; 04:32:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94120)

Townie, Gandalf etal.

I'm struggling here Guy's...
Spot Gold is traded in London (am-pm fix) then the overlap and NY trades in "standalone" mode for several Hr's. As the NY (comex) arena is a "futures" market, is Spot at that time derived from the futures ie: GCG03 minus GOFO or similar?

Hipplebeck

(01/11/2003; 06:05:46 MDT - Msg ID: 94121)

Questions

In the Weimer republic in Germany when they had the hyperinflation, was there a central bank? Who owned it?

The Invisible Hand

(01/11/2003; 06:19:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94122)

Fed has been modeled after German hyperinflation Reichsbank

http://www.johntaylorgatto.com/chapters/7g.htmSNIP:
Sixty years later, amid a well-coordinated attempt on the part of industrialists and financiers to transfer power over money and interest rates from elected representatives of the American people to a "Federal Reserve" of centralized private banking interests, George Reynolds, president of the American Bankers Association, rose before an audience on September 13, 1909, to declare himself flatly in favor of a central bank modeled after the German Reichsbank. As he spoke, the schools of the United States were being forcibly rebuilt on Prussian lines.
==
Hipplebeck, I hope this answers your questions. To tell you frankly, I am surprised by what I found as answer. The wonders of the web. I knew John Taylor Gatto for his book "Dumbing us down" on schooling, but I was unaware of his financial teachings.

Sierra Madre

(01/11/2003; 07:00:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94123)

Belgian, are you in MARKETING?

You may have good reasons for being so optimistic about the Euro, I am glad you are. I thought of your enthusiasm as I used the shampoo in the shower this morning. "New and Improved!"

Here's the marketing line:

"TRY EURO, the NEW and IMPROVED World Reserve Currency! 500 million users!

"Free, six-month fiat-back guarantee. Try the EURO for six months and if not fully satisfied, your fiat back!!!

"Try EURO with GOLD ENHANCEMENT and your Central Bank Reserves will be stronger, firmer, healthier!"

"Gold enhancement". Lovely, beautiful...and means nothing.

Great for sales!

Sierra

Belgian

(01/11/2003; 07:28:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94124)

WHAT IS YOUR WEALTH ?

Interview on BBC with high ranking Euroland negociator on bilateral trade, Pascal Lamy, on the subject of genetically manipulated (GM) agricultural products. P. Lamy emphasized the following : Euroland's views and opinions (policies) are getting more weight and implementation-power, when differing from the views and opinions (policies) of the US !
This was stated firmly and with a lot of affirmation and self-confidence. It was "this message" that Lamy wanted to communicate rather than discussing GM in all its aspects.

This growing euro-confidence must also be present in the euro-currency-concept on wich the new strenght has been builded. Evidence that the dollar "must" take into consideration that a viable euro-"competitor" is born and growing.

We all want to become dollar-rich and famous. But do we aspire to become euro-wealthy and wise ? How many amongst us strive to "conclude" perishable richness in eternal Gold- wealth ? The difference between rich and wealthy, being GOLD !

Is the euro-concept an answer, in or out of the box, to a dollar-inspired, "financial" economy, organised by a brotherhood ??? I'm afraid it looks like it is or might probably become very soon. Certainly when we recently hear new voices calling for a renewed dollar-gold-standard (A.G.- Sinclair) instead of the silent/discrete, euro-gold-concept in progress.

The derivatized monetary/financial system shivers about the possible idea of a renewance of the "Wealth Valuator", Gold.
Pascal Lamy's firmness pushed me a bit further again in my conviction that it is happening, now.
The silent euro-builders and architects are getting faces and voices.

The euro has the ambition to become a Gold enhanced "money" and not a dollar-fiat/confetti that lost Gold and is probably in the proces of losing oil-wealth.
One can be rich in underground gold terms but wealthy in physical Gold in possession. Quite a difference up to the extend that one needs first to become dollar-confetti-rich before this can be concluded in Physical Gold. This is changing.

But our paper-richeness is no more...! It has evolved in mounting debt not to be served anymore out of real *profits*. Soon fiat/digits and maybe, many tangibles, will represent nothing more than ever growing debt.

Wise and "very" rich giants, old and new-ones, know this and therefore are unmistakingbly embarking on more, scarcely available, Gold. I count the euro-architects under the wise and they have created the euro-concept as the renewed wealth-accumulation initiator. Not only to provide an instrument for pure wealth-trade and conservation but at the same time offering an alternative for the outdated dollar-system.

What struck me as an Eurolander in President's Bush latest speech was that he mentioned the "refinancing" aspect as an asset-builder in the American economy. Debt upon Debt !
Encouraging a 60% consumer-driven economy to take debt upon debt... upon eternal debt, thanks to concerted lowering interest rates, soon going negative. Helicopter money to keep things going ? Hallucinant !?

I am in the process of fully "understanding" A/FOA's title : In the footsteps of the Giant's Gold Trail ! Conclude your wealth in Gold as much as your understanding allows to.
What exactly is your wealth....richness...fame...wisdom...?
Good subject for weekend introspection whilst doing something pleasant.

Hipplebeck

(01/11/2003; 08:04:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94125)

crunch time

The problem;
They must get the party started again before they can raise interest rates.
The dollar will continue to fall until interest rates are raised.

Productivity;
Today, a Chinese guy makes a pair of tennis shoes for 2 dollars, and I sell the tennis shoes in USA for 20 dollars.
Tomorrow, a Chinese guy makes a pair of tennis shoes for 1 dollar, and I sell the tennis shoes in USA for 20 dollars, whose productivity really went up? According to the government, my productivity went up.

Greenspan has promised to expand the discount window if need be until he is willing to accept almost any collateral, including gold mines. Well I guess so. Duh! I'm sure that those banksters will be glad to accept everything you worked hard for and will be all too happy to give you a worthless piece of paper for it. They are not your government, they are not your friend, they are thieves, partnered with the politicians in organized crime. When debt is money, there is only one conclusion in the end, Bankruptsy or the banksters will own everything.

Gold is honest money for honest folks.

Hipplebeck

(01/11/2003; 08:24:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94126)

This read is for you engineers out there.

http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel/bankmath.htm
The last paragraph of the study:

I hope this analysis has helped clear up many of the formerly
misrepresented and misunderstood aspects of the usury banking system
as well as explain why usury has been condemned throughout history as
the greatest crime against humanity. It's the only thing standing
between mankind and abundant salvation.

Belgian

(01/11/2003; 08:35:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94127)

@ Sierra Madre

No Sir, I'm NOT marketing the euro-currency ! I am studying the "concept" behind it. Did the same with my shampoo. What's the formula of the soap in it ? And what are the characteristics of that chemical entity. I'm not going to stash that shampoo (euro) but the chemical (Gold) that is making that shampoo excellent to use. But when my hair needs a wash (trade) I'll take some shampoo (euro) and not the pure chemical (Gold).

I, personally, don't hold my Gold-Coins with the intention to sell them at any projected price (400$ > 600$ > 850$ or euro) in any currency, euro or dollar. That's not the purpose (sale for profit) when one stores/concludes, his/her, wealth.

I do believe that Gold's price today is completely "absurd" and that there must be a very good reason for this. This is what A/FOA explained with his brilliant insights. And I constantly keep on checking if the emergence/existance of the euro is a good reason why Gold-things will change !
When saying euro, think euro-concept.

That's why I first had to study the dollar-concept to know in what the euro differs from the old working stuff at present. We have been living with the dollar for so many years as Europeans. Now we are changing into eurolanders with the audacity of a new currency WITH a concept !

The euro-currency is the conclusion of old ideas ! Euroland wants to compete with the dollar. A competitor always has better intentions than the established, complacent original dollar-ruler ! Hey brother, I'm a capitalist you know !

The euro has embraced Gold as the best and most reliable sponsor there is. That's why I'm going after that sponsor, Gold... with euro. Not with dollars anymore as I was forced to do, before ! What if many others (Chinese/Russians/Indians/Arabs) get the same idea of going after Gold and Oil (wealths) with *Another* currency than the original dollar ?

How can real wealth be exchanged, FOR EVER, with a continuous debasing dollar-currency ? Quite a contradiction...or a once in a lifetime GOLDEN opportunity ?

Yes, I see panicking Venezualens, exchanging their currency for dollars ! The act impulsively as a reaction on the Argentina experience. No they did NOT run massively into Gold ! That's why Gold needs modern, wise architects, who have "Another" idea about Gold-Management ! This to break with the past 21 years of Gold immobilism and un-natural, artificial paper-containment due to lack of any workable alternative .

Yes, I do understand why it is much easier to remain complacent about the dollar. Viva the road of least resistance and all will come well !? I'm of a different opinion thanks to the intelligence of A/FOA/MK and many others here present.

How brutal it is to state that the dollar had its time and that those old Euroland continentals dare to challenge the dominator of times ! That's life Sir.

Not a POG of 600$/oz but thousands of euro is the new concept's goal / reality. It is NOT us who are going to achieve this. But maybe our obstinance might one day resort some effect on the masses, when the time for "wealth" is ripe. Gustave le Bon already knew that masses do react in stampede mode. The euro-architects do know this also. And the modern financial brotherhood is exploiting this art at its fulliest of power within the confetti-business of stockmarket/bonds/currencies and derivative explosives. And this mad business has been overdone at a destructive level.

Have a nice WE, Sierra.

Mr Gresham

(01/11/2003; 08:36:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94128)

Don't miss Doug Noland this week

http://prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.aspon the Fed's Ben Strong and how they "started the party" in the 1920's...

Mr Gresham

(01/11/2003; 08:52:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94129)

Belgian

"We have been living with the dollar for so many years as Europeans. Now we are changing into eurolanders with the audacity of a new currency WITH a concept !"

Wouldn't you agree that much of the entire shift could be put into one sentence: "WW2 is over!"

It's known that Roosevelt and the power circles around him studied and planned from the late 30's on how to expand US role throughout the world as Europe came to war. Opportunity knocking, no, SCREAMING! And they were ready to be the dominator. With a currency ready to do much of the colonizing.

(Notice how US used the war as an economy-booster, rather than economy-destroyer.)

So, all Europe is saying today is: OK, OK. 50 years is enough time in the penalty box! We won't do THAT again! Look, we've even gotten the currencies of FORMER ENEMIES joined together. When has that ever happened in history before? And meanwhile you've outrun the prerogatives we abandoned to you by going to war.

Every Empire has its time in the sun. But now it's time again for a shift. And the natural, daily productivities of 300+ million people will have their expression in a daily-used currency. But a currency that doesn't try to be Everything in the financial world. A currency that will even wisely defer to REAL things. It won't propagandize itself as being more than real things, more than just a currency. It won't get up on a pedestal from which it can fall. It will just go to work everyday, and do its job.

(Note: This is an attempt to state the theory we discuss here about the Euro being different than the Dollar. I have no direct knowledge whether or not there is a cartel of bankers behind that currency as there is behind the Fed's Dollar Franchise.)

And it's time for people worldwide to learn the difference between a currency and real things. A little economics lesson a-comin'...

Mr Gresham

(01/11/2003; 09:20:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94130)

And don't miss the Antal Fekete

http://www.goldisfreedom.com/Greenspan-andCo.htmHe always presents his unique accounting-based viewpoint of what's going on at the top of the financial pyramid.

"Financial Vampirism

"In the view presented here deflation is a huge wealth-transfer scheme from the producing sector to the financial sector, denuding the former of its capital, and enriching the latter with risk-free capital gains. Indeed, the beneficiaries of the falling interest-rate structure, making risk-free profits thanks to the zero-interest policy of the central bank, are the principals of the financial sector, chief among them those of the big money-center banks. Their obscene profits do not come out of thin air. Their wealth is not newly created wealth. It is existing wealth siphoned off the balance sheet of producing enterprise, forced into bankruptcy by the falling interest-rate structure. This is modern vampirism practiced by the financial sector, aided and abetted by the central bank, and its victim is the producing sector.

"The bear market in stocks is not the cause but the effect of deflation. The cause is the artificial bull market in bonds financed by the central bank. If you ask the bond speculator about his obscene profits while the rest of the economy crumbles around him, he will shrug: "I play by the rules. And I did not make those rules either."

Tacitus

(01/11/2003; 09:26:16 MDT - Msg ID: 94131)

#94116 & Diversification

Dear Golden Bear,

Thanks for the info. I currently sit at just over 10% Gold and the rest is in Stocks and Bond Mutual Funds. You are at 50% gold and %50 cash if memory serves. I have learned on this website that there are a lot of different stategies. I wonder if there is anybody out there at say %10-%20 physical and %80-90 other? Am I the only one on this forum who still has some hope for the future of stocks and bonds?

Salve,
Tacitus

Hipplebeck

(01/11/2003; 09:27:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94132)

World at war

Why is Bush brandishing the nuclear sword?
Why is the US in such a hurry to grab the oil?
It's because the world is already at war, economic war, and America is losing.

1. Rothchild banks of London and Berlin.
2. Lazard Brothers Banks of Paris.
3. Israel Moses Seif Banks of Italy.
4. Warburg Bank of Hamburg and Amsterdam.
5. Lehman Brothers Bank of New York.
6. Kuhn, Loeb bank of New York.
7. Chase Manhattan Bank of New York, which controls all of the other 11 Federal Reserve Banks.
8. Goldman, Sachs Bank of New York.

These are the men that are trying to con the world.
They are the owners of the federal reserve banks.
They are Jewish banksters.
Who ows the ECB?

A gold backed currency takes the power away from these men.
They are willing to start world war 3 to hold onto that power.

Gold is honest money for honest folks.

Hipplebeck

(01/11/2003; 09:29:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94133)

spelling correction

Who owns the ECB?

Sierra Madre

(01/11/2003; 09:29:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94134)

@ Belgian...the "concept" of the Euro...

Don't get me wrong, I am all in favor of the Euro. Better to have two gangsters to deal with, than only one. If two, they each limit the other's power to some extent.

But, Euro is fiat and only fiat. What, pray tell, is the "concept" of which you speak? Either a currency is redeemable in gold or silver at a fixed rate, or it is not.
If it is redeemable, it is to some extent trustworthy; to
some extent only, because the redeemability MAY come to an end, and usually does.

If the currency is not redeemable, it is fiat. Use at your peril.

So, there will be a free market in gold in Europe. That's wonderful. Please explain how this "ENHANCES" the Euro. I hear you mention this verb quite a bit, what exactly does it mean? It's a pretty word, it sounds good, but: either there is redeemability or there is not.

No redeemability, and we have FIAT MONEY. That's what the Euro is, let us make no mistake!

The European PTB simply want to muscle in on the "World Reserve Currency" racket - why should the U.S. have a monopoly on it?

The Middle East may choose to receive Euros in payment instead of Dollars for various reasons, which have little or nothing to do with gold:

1. Why take the fiat money of those who are aggressors?
2. The dollar appears less likely to maintain its value than the Euro, because the Americans are threatening to destroy its value with their economic policies.
3. Diversification of Reserves into two competing fiats is prudent.

I didn't plan on going into this following point, but I may as well:

The First Order of Business, upon (successful) conclusion of the Oil War on Iraq, will be the destruction of the European Union and the Euro. That is clear as day, to me.
The motivation behind WWII was NOT Nazism and the odious Hitler, but EUROPEAN UNION, which threatened Anglo American global financial power.

That is why Britain is waffling about joining the Euro. Why adopt the Euro, if it is going to be destroyed? Britain must wait and see how the Iraq war turns out. If the U.S. is successful in taking over Iraqi oil fields, the Euro will be "kaput"!

Get your physical, at any price!

Sierra

sector

(01/11/2003; 09:41:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94135)

Are Turkish 2nd and 3rd Divisions pouring into Iraq heading for oilfields?

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=237Turkey points its N. Iraq military deployment at� the Kurds

DEBKA-Net-Weekly 92 Exclusive updated by DEBKAfile
January 11, 2003, 4:19 PM (GMT+02:00)

Are Turkish 2nd and 3rd Divisions pouring into Iraq heading for oilfields?

The new Turkish government has performed a spectacular about-face with respect to US war plans for Iraq and its post-Saddam aftermath, a large monkey wrench that is bound to throw off Washington's timeline for launching its war offensive against Iraq. This partly explains the pressure building up from Britain and other western powers to postpone the assault.

Ankara's turnaround, as uncovered by DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military and intelligence sources in Washington, Ankara and Tehran, may be a tactical ploy for a better deal with Washington. But in the meantime, it derails almost two years of painstaking formulation work on complicated political and military arrangements for the conduct of the war in North Iraq's Kurdistan.

Before the war begins, and with Saddam looking on in Baghdad, America's two key partners on its northern front, Turkey and the Kurds, are vying for post-war spoils: control of the government in Baghdad and oil. Bringing them back in line is essential, if the vital northern flank of the American warfront is not to be disabled before and during the conflict. The US will need to keep a weather eye on how its two northern allies are behaving and keep important segments of its army in reserve. Instead of fighting Saddam Hussein, they may be called on to separate the two old enemies.

The US-Turkish deals thrown in disarray by Ankara are:

A. Turkey's war role, hinging on its commitment to open a second front in northern Iraq and leave the Americans free to focus on their drives from Kuwait in the south and Jordan in the west.

They are also backing away from making Turkish bases available to the US air force as jumping off points.

B. Turkey's post-war stake in the north Iraq's oilfields and the oil cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, as well as the share-out of oil revenues among the US, the new federal government in Baghdad, Turkey and the Kurds.

Already, the Turkish army has stepped out of its pre-defined war role. The Turkish 2nd and 3rd Corps, deployed along and across the Iraqi border to take on Iraqi troops, are laying Iraqi Kurdistan to virtual siege, interrupting the flow of imported foodstuffs from Turkey and Kurdish exports going the opposite direction. Travelers to Kurdistan must go round through Syria or Iran.

Turkish armored units have also seized positions along strategic northern highways connecting Zakho to Ammadiyah and those towns� road links to Dahuk and Aqrah, which lie north of Kirkuk and Mosul. They have thrown up roadblocks and are searching Kurdish vehicles. Any Turkish attempt to block these roads to Kurdish traffic would inevitably provoke outright clashes of arms.

The Kurdish leader Barzani, who arrived in Ankara for talks with Turkish leaders on Wednesday, January 7, was greeted according to our sources with "stony faces and blunt military threats", such as: "The Kurds had better beware of making enemies," and "Any wrong move will prompt Turkish military reprisal."

Turkey is pouring troop reinforcements into northern Iraq all the time. A heavy concentration has been posted on the Turkish-Syrian frontier, to keep Syrian forces from coming to the aid of the Kurds and fend off possible Kurdish terrorist operations in southern Turkey.

High-ranking American officers, who went to Ankara on troubleshooting missions, asked Turkish army chiefs how deep their divisions meant to advance into northern Iraq. The same question was put to Turkish field commanders. They replied that their orders were to keep moving forward - even as far as Baghdad.

British defense minister Geoffrey Hoon received the same answer when he arrived in Ankara Wednesday, January 8 to try and mediate the dispute.

A Turkish government team of experts is rummaging through old Ottoman Empire archives for the deeds and certificates affirming property ownership in the two cities, the oil fields and other parts of northern Iraq. They believe they will find documentation for proving Turkish ownership in the oilfields before World War One and intend pressing their claims.

Last week, Turkish prime minister Abdullah Gul, whose party Justice and Development was elected in a landslide last November, made the rounds of Arab capitals in search of support of Ankara's latest stance.

Western diplomats, probing for the immediate trigger of the Turkish volte face, reported to Washington on two reasons: The Turks were dismayed by the paramount leadership role the Americans assigned Kurdish representatives at the conference of Iraqi opposition leaders that took place in London last December. They also took note of the political and military preparations for self-rule advancing in Kurdistan. Ankara believes the Kurds are on course for independence, not just autonomy, a development Turkey will never countenance.

Before the crisis is over, Ankara will most probably backtrack on its most extreme demands after gaining some US concessions. But the process will be time-consuming.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Now we know the real reason behind the latest US invasion delay, Turkey has grabbed for Iraq's oil first and balked at US troupe staging missions.

The chubby bozos in the Pentagon have blown another one. Can't wait to see their "Back-up" plan.

a nation of one

(01/11/2003; 10:02:42 MDT - Msg ID: 94136)

@ Tacitus (01/11/03; 09:26:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 94131)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=INDEX_INDU&v=dmax&w=1&t=l&a=200
Your concern: "I wonder if there is anybody out there at say %10-%20 physical and %80-90 other? Am I the only one on this forum who still has some hope for the future of stocks and bonds?"

--I am at 30 percent physical and 70 percent long gold futures contracts (December 2003), and have been for almost a year. I got out of stocks in September of 2000. In answer to your second question, go to the link and look at the chart. Notice the blue line. Then answer this question the best you can: Do I think there is a real possibility the blue line will go up from here? (The answer should be something like, "No. Almost certainly not. At least not enough to bet anything substantial on.") Then notice the red line. It is the 200 day moving average. The last point on the red line represents the average price of gold over the past 200 days. Notice that the red line has been going down for a while now, and that it is still pointing downward, increasingly. This implies that the blue line will continue to trend downward. In addition to this, notice that the most recent part of the blue line has been below the red line for about six months, more or less, and that, as the most recent 200 days move forward into the coming days and weeks, it already has been established that the red line will probably go down further. Therefore, those who hold hope for an up market in stocks can only do so in ignorance. I don't mean to be rude. 'Ignorance' is merely the correct word. I will use this opportunity to point out also, that that is the nature of hope and faith. Where there is hope or faith, there is not knowledge; for, where there is knowledge, hope and faith are extraneous.

a nation of one

(01/11/2003; 10:06:22 MDT - Msg ID: 94137)

oh, a disclaimer

My opinion is just an opinion. You are still responsible for your all of your losses. But then too, you may keep all of your gains.

a nation of one

(01/11/2003; 10:28:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94138)

clarifications

A clarification is needed to one of my recent posts.

1. Stocks can go up from here. The blue line may even cross over the red line, as it has done previously. But if you think in terms of months, you will see that a substantially higher market in stocks appears profoundly unlikely.

GoldnSilver2002

(01/11/2003; 10:49:11 MDT - Msg ID: 94139)

Argentinians didnt run to gold because they couldnt get any

Here,in the first world,north america anyway,we can often lose touch on how the rest of the world lives.In the last 3 years i have travelled extensively throughout asia,europe,central america and even south america(columbia).We often speak about japan and china's buying because it is available to them.When i was in holland,i found it very difficult to obtain gold'some banks saying they would only sell it only to clients and some only offering paper gold.At the coin stores, gold had to be ordered and came in less than mint condition.In costa rica the banks looked at me like i was crazy."You want to buy gold?!",as if i was from another planet.When i asked where i could buy gold,they didnt even know!In many countries gold is not so readily available and even when it is,many simply dont know how to buy it or where.

Secondly,we say things like gold is cheap.Yet a mere one ounce coin costs 350 dollars us per oz.Nowadays not many people have enough money in the bank to buy even two coins without using their credit cards.Over the last 20 years the channels and means by which people buy gold have slowly been closed.

What is my point?The demand for gold would be far higher but many already cant afford it and the rest cant get it,even if they want to.Gold will be for the elite soon,but silver "poor man's gold" will be another story.

a nation of one

(01/11/2003; 10:49:49 MDT - Msg ID: 94140)

correction

My statement, "The last point on the red line represents the average price of gold over the past 200 days."

Should read, "The last point on the red line represents the average value of the DOW over the past 200 days."

Belgian

(01/11/2003; 11:16:19 MDT - Msg ID: 94141)

Gresham : Yes Sir, indeed it all started with the "stop the war" idea ! "IT" being EMU = European Monetary Union.
The "basis"...the "fundamental" ! And consequently, with a "concept" that has been EVOLVING and still is !!!
A monetary union that was born out of political will to avoid future wars, within Europe. A common currency before all other aspects of unification/uniformation. Therefore that particular currency ECU>>>EURO was disigned to be very strong indeed. A lot of diverging forces were going to come down (and still are) on its (euro) shoulders.

Yes the US$ was an economy booster (Marshall plan) rather than an economy destroyer ! But that was then and now it is now. The cost of the past prosperity is seen in the dollar's debasement. Voila, thank you very much Mister dollar, but you aren't of any use anymore. The dollar can't produce "genuine" prosperity anymore for the thousand reasons we are discussing here. The dollar did its "nice" trick in after war Europe and exported the same modus operandi all over the world. The dollar has become pure debt during its fast and deep creation of prosperity and relative peace. We "all" co-operated with this dollar-magic and abused it. That's why *the window* was already closing in 1971, shortly after the two WWs (1914-18 and 1940-45) and the spiking prosperity.

Sierra Madre : The ECB's Gold-reserves (wealth-asset) is an "exchange-reserve". That is a tool (the ultimate tool) to manage the specific euro-currency. That big word "monetary policy". More Gold or a higher price for the valuable Gold-reserves for the same amount of currency, makes this currency stronger vis a vis another currency.
It is the Gold-exchange-reserve that monitors the currency.

If a new currency (the euro) wants to be loved, used for trade and saved...it must have a strong and reliable appeal and build a track record of stability serving economic growth.

The euro-concept wants to deploy a system where Gold-pricing happens in function of real physical Gold trade IN EURO ! The euro currency must be closely associated with trade in Physical Gold. The fluctuating POG (in euro) is going to reflect "trust/confidence" in the euro or in Physical Gold itself. If the euro becomes a lousy currency due to mismanagement, the concept acts as an arbiter and initiates a move into Physical Gold, up to the point where the euro exchange rate has adjusted to reality again and is safe to exchange for Gold.

Quite different from the dollar-gold-standard where a certain amount of goldreserves remained at a fixed price (41$) whatever happens with the dollar.

Old Europe knows too well that politicians will always cheat on any currency. That's what happened with the dollar and with the old european currencies as well. Competitive devaluation and permanent devaluations. Now let us stop this idiocy and indicate Gold again as the *neutral* arbiter for our currency management.

The Gold-arbiter must be able to operate freely and with diplomatic immunity . That's why the original concept gained ground. The oil factor came somewhat later and gave more/broader meaning to the concept.

A free physical goldmarket is an a priori for being able to switch from euro-currency to Gold and vice versa. Gold-Wealth must be freely tradable as everybody accepts the neutral authority of any arbiter. You can call this redeemable or not. For Big fortunes being able to shift in an out of Gold...you need a free market in physical gold with free pricing !!! Exactly what is not possible today !!!

That's the clue Sierra ! Fortunes can NOT go into Gold "freely" because Gold's price is schacled by the paper-monster. The dollar wants to keep it that way for him to survive. The euro does not want this dollar-saving system and therefore wants to destroy the gold-paper-market and set Gold free to enhance the euro consequently and pushing the dollar on the sidelines in that same all-embracing move.

Yes, in order to *agree* on a free physical goldmarket...political will (acceptance) is needed. Same process to come to EMU. The euro and dollar must, at a given moment, see a win-win thing in his free physical goldmarket. The euro is in the process of pushing the dollar into such a position that the dollar becomes a bit more flexible towards the needed political will to establish the free goldmarket as a replacement of the old unworkable goldstandard. It is that euro-pushing that I'm trying to evidence. Arabian oil is watching us (euro and dollar). Push a bit further or hold back ?

Yes Sir, it might very well be that the euro-haters haven't given up on their sabotage (not destruction) actions. Yep, Anglo-American global financial power ! You got my point there, very well.

Yep...we all wait, watch and see and...take one Golden bird in hand instead of 1,000 euro-birds in the air.

CoBra(too)

(01/11/2003; 11:25:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94142)

The DEBKA Files posted by Sector -

are real scary. The Kurds, which are base in eastern Turkey, Iraq, Iran and other neighboring countries were a fact discriminated and oppressed too long. I could envision these people to undermine any more oppressions by getting ahead of the game played by out by the oppressors of any color.

Many years ago I travelled by car from Ankara to Teheran and on to Kabul. No paved roads then from Turkish Kaiseri onwards and since it was going on to winter and passes of 4.000 metres of elevation had to be passed - by slippery bridges, iced over, and re-inforced only by extra boards your car had to negotiate these kind of obstacles. I gave up at a hamlet, just about 20 miles before Erzerum - maybe 50 miles before the border Turkish/Iranian border of Bazorgan. Stayed overnight at a Chai-kanee (Tea-house) and was offered their marvellous hospitality. A hospitality, which I could reciprocate 3 months later upon my return - it ended up as 2 days festivity. Very warm memories of this occasion are still with me ... and yes, it was some 40 years ago...

Much more to the golden point is Mike Bolser's note to last night's Midas.

Great to have these kind of guys - ha! - posting here - Thank you and don't forget, you'll probably find you won't be able to get real value for any amount of fiat for much longer - C U - cb2

PS: MK - Bormio # 2 - The empire has fought back - after hours - what a race - as Daron looked as the winner already!

PPS: Skydog - Thanks for your kind comment ...

Belgian

(01/11/2003; 11:49:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94143)

@ Hipplebeck -ECB

http://www.ecb.intAt the above link you find everything you wish to know on the ECB. Happy reading, Sir. Dinner time.

Cometose

(01/11/2003; 12:01:55 MDT - Msg ID: 94144)

@A Nation of ONE

NO STOCKS.....not for a while (years) ,,,overvalued....games....fraud...accounting....pumping and dumping .....by the fed.... bubble mania.....when it all burns up , I want something that transfers as value..

Belgian

(01/11/2003; 12:44:11 MDT - Msg ID: 94145)

@GoldnSilver2002 # 94139

He/she who desires Gold, anywhere anytime, will certainly find it. All these countries have internet-caf�s and within a matter of minutes, they will find USAGOLD_CPM and the much desired Gold is only a phonecall away.

But the second part of your posting is very interesting to analyse it further. The ordinarry western individual lost his natural, evident, touch with Gold ! Reason : Gold being UNFREE ! Sounds ridicule but it isn't. Unfree Gold is Gold wich has been frozen in price (price-movements) and has been forced to fly under the radar screens of any observer.
We know "how" and "why" they did it !

As soon as anyone mentioned Gold within his/her social environment...the reactions were uniform : Gold is out and dead ! This is true for media-rich, western societies under the influence of the financial fraternities. And not so for the Eastern part of the globe.

During the good times of global economic expansion...ordinarry man/women saw no reason for paying any attention to physical Gold in possession. It doesn't matter if you count your wealth in grams, kilograms or tonnes of Gold. The principle remains the same.

But there are many places in the world where the public exposure of Gold as an expression of "wealth" is very common. Euroland has a long tradition of regular emissions of Gold-coins for many different occasions. As to keep the Gold-memory alive within the general public.

Now, what will happen when the possession of physical Gold, by the general public, is encouraged again by officials ?
What if at the same time POG is supporting these encouragements ? How easy it is to move the masses in one way or the other, isn't it.
Believe it that "Gold-fire" can be ignited, very very easy and extremely fast on a very broad scale.

And whoops, I found again *Another* reason to mention the euro-concept again and put it responsible for igniting this Gold-fire, again to support the "concept" and make free physical goldtrade as normal as it was in the past.
Don't expect this from the dollar-block. Because the dollar-concept cannot afford any Gold-fire ! The euro wants it as an enhancement. Euro-reserves are already marked to market as an indication that this currency has no fear of a rising Goldprice !!!
The ECB owned by its member states organizes the Gold euro-flows from ECB to member states, also holding gold exchange reserves in their national banks and where the profits (gold-trade) flow to their respective treasuries !!!!
See how ECB works at given link to Hipplebeck.

Euroland heavely relies on income of the 75% taxes of oil-energy. This is a gigantic state money (sorry confetti) spinner. Euroland's central banks and ECB wants to create such a second Golden moneyspinner with taxes on free physical goldtrade, indirectly and directly with a constant rising POG for their gold exchange reserves, enhancing the euro in intrinsic worth whilst expanding as a reserve currency. Too late for Argentina, Venezuela, Mexico...but not for us here well informed by our mentors.

Old Yeller

(01/11/2003; 13:56:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94146)

Tactitus,I see,is

http://www.atimes.com/global-econ/DD11Dj01.html
Still shaking the red,white and blue pom-poms and chanting
"USA,USA".

Perhaps,given a level playing field,your observations would
carry some weight.

As of now,they are pure propaganda.The facts and advantages
of US dollar hegemony are clear,the US frolics and and "prospers" in the rarified air of a sweetheart deal.

Now,as the world's largest debtor,they lecture and
threaten the rest of the world to subscribe to their
unique vision of freedom mixed with coercion,deception
and outright dishonesty.

Plus,the weaponry,paid for by borrowing from the less
"enlightened" world traders.

The ones that produce the real wealth.

Usul

(01/11/2003; 14:18:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94147)

Worst trade gap for three centuries

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=360520"Britain's exports to Continental Europe have collapsed...

The goods deficit ballooned to �3.6bn in October, the largest monthly figure since King William III started collecting data in 1696..."

If that sounds a tad bad, it's probably because it is. Much more is being taken than given. There must, in the fullness of time, be a correction to balance the books. Ulitimately it will mean that more goods must be produced, and less imported. The force that will produce this change will be a currency revaluation. There may be a rush to the euro as a "panic measure". The dollar and the pound are in a three-legged race, and the precious metal runners are running in the opposite direction.

(01/11/2003; 14:43:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94148)

GoldnSilver2002. . .That's all Changed!! And USAGOLD is in the Vanguard

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(01/11/2003; 15:24:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94149)

Retails in bookstores for $14.95. Get it directly from the author for $5.95

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CoBra(too)

(01/11/2003; 16:50:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94150)

Did They Find a Real Gusher?

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20030111&ID=2227481OPEC discussing opening the taps (in correct
British "faucets" - or tapped out taps) in order
to buffer any fallout from a potential Iraq War.
Also the price targets have been penetrated to
the upside - in terms of what measure, I'd be
interested to know?

After all, it couldn't be the US Dollar price
of the barrel - as I can't see the Sheiks being
irrational? Can you?

Gold for Oil? Another('s) Thought closer to
reality - cb2

Paper Avalanche

(01/11/2003; 16:59:34 MDT - Msg ID: 94151)

Sector - Turkey beating the US to Iraqi oil

Isn't Turkey joining the Euro in twelve months? If so, it appears that the lines for this upcoming war will be drawn based on what currency you support. If Turkey is going into Iraq to beat the US troops to the oil fields, and is doing so at the behest of the Euro faction for oil to be priced in Euro, then WW3 has just begun.

Take care all.

PAPER AVALANCHE

Sovereign

(01/11/2003; 17:04:22 MDT - Msg ID: 94152)

ECB Hippleback, Belgian...

Dear Belgian,

The official websites only suggest, to the best of my knowledge, that national central banks (French, German, Italian, Belgian etc.) are contracting parties to the ECB. The true ownership of the ECB, as in WHO OWNS THE CENTRAL BANKS THAT SUPPOSEDLY OWN THE ECB, is not revealed.

You are walking on air, Sir Belgian, yet you think you are treading on a golden pathway to wisdom and financial security. Sadly, I am most likely coming along for the ride. I guess that's what being a mortal human being means, after all.

Sovereign

CoBra(too)

(01/11/2003; 17:23:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94153)

Bill Bonner - again... on Moral Hazard

... Gold ought to have gone up ...

"The term 'moral hazard' has a special meaning as well as a
general one.

"The idea is simple," explains Jeffrey Tucker in an article
published by the Mises Institute in December of 1998, "If
you are continually willing to protect people from the
consequences of their own errors, your benevolence will be
factored into the future decisions of the persons rescued.
In the long run, they will make even more errors. The
principle exists at all levels. The teacher who changes
grades when students plead hardship isn't helping in the
long run. The teacher is rewarding and thereby encouraging
poor study habits. He is creating moral hazard."

The new, collectivized world of the late 20th century was
full of accommodating teachers and forgiving wives.
Investors paid too much for stocks. Businesses and
consumers borrowed too much. And the whole world seemed to
believe what couldn't be true - that the dollar was more
valuable than gold. For nearly 20 years, gold went down
while the dollar went up.

Gold ought to have gone up. Since the beginning of Alan
Greenspan's term, the Monetary Base has almost tripled. In
the most recent few years of Mr. Greenspan's term, short-
term interest rates have been driven down to barely a fifth
of what they were two years ago.

"[L]owering rates or providing ample liquidity when
problems materialize, but not raising them as imbalances
build up, can be rather insidious in the longer run,"
concedes a working paper from the Bank of International
Settlements. "They promote a form of moral hazard that can
sow the seeds of instability and of costly fluctuations in
the real economy."

By the beginning of 2003, there were an estimated $9
trillion of U.S. dollar assets in foreign hands...and three
times as many in circulation as there had been in 1987. The
hazards had never been greater...nor ever so hard to see...

More Monday... Bill Bonner" ...

You got to love the guy for stating the truth in a "real
nice way"! cb2

mikal

(01/11/2003; 18:01:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94154)

@Sovereign

You: "...yet you think you are treading a golden pathway to wisdom and financial security."
Trail Guide: " We walk the trail together, no?"
Today I opened fortune cookie reading: "You are in good hands." And another one was slipped under it: "It is during difficult times that true friends become apparent." And I thought that our "true friends become apparent" here as "hands" that dependably assist us in "difficult times". Not to provide ALL answers and wisdom. But to "walk" together on life's trail, yes?
"Wisdom outweighs any wealth."- Sophocles, 'Antigone'
"It is a characteristic of wisdom not to do desperate things."- Thoreau, 'Walden'
"Wisdom sends us back to our childhood."- Pascal, 'Pensees'
"The way of the sage is to act but not to compete."- Lao-Tzu, 'Tao Te Ching'
"Wonder is the beginning of wisdom"- Anonymous, 'Greek Proverb'
The highest wisdom has but one science-the science of the whole- the science explaining the whole creation and man's place in it.- Leo Tolstoy, 'War and Peace'
"The great good is wisdom."- St. Augustine, 'Soliloquies'
"The price of wisdom is above rubies."- Bible, Job 28:18

Sierra Madre

(01/11/2003; 18:21:34 MDT - Msg ID: 94155)

Belgian: Ah! the importance of communication!

Thank you for your patience, Sir Belgian, your clear exposition in post 94141 is quite explanatory.

Well, well; if we are going to see a price at which fortunes can move into and out of the Euro at will, then we are talking about Euros 30,000 oz., perhaps more!

Only that price - or perhaps even much higher - can possibly accomodate all the huge fiat numbers, both Euro and Dollar, that are common today.

It takes a lot of thinking to be able to grasp that, but - perhaps it is possible. I cannot say it is not possible.

Now it is clear what you have been driving at: a super-currency, a true numeraire, into which the public can run at the first whiff of fear, thus disciplining the Central Bank to tighten or face the consequences. The way it should be!

Let us hope that Europe can achieve the materialization of this vision, and regain for itself the center of the world, the position it deserves as the center of Western Culture.

Sierra

Sierra Madre

(01/11/2003; 18:36:52 MDT - Msg ID: 94156)

Clarification:

I should have written:

"...if we are going to see a price at which fortunes can move into and out of GOLD at will...then Euros 30,000/ per oz."

Alchemist

(01/11/2003; 18:41:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94157)

euro

I find todays posts very informative in understanding the concepts of the dollar and euro. Thanks to Belgium and Mr. Gresham for their discussions on the Dollar and the Euro. In having a fairly good understanding of the Fed in the US and who is behind it, is the Euro formulated by different masters as has been quiried by one post today. I think that is a key concept in trying to understand what is happening in the mid east today.
Can a series of posts be nominated to the hall of fame. I would like to nominate Belgium and Mr. Gresham discussions in posts 94124, 94127, 94129, and 94141 be put in the Hall of Fame.

Mr. Bill

(01/11/2003; 18:41:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94158)

@mikal msg#: 94154

There was one more quote that I am surprised that you missed.

"You don't know poo poo." - Endgame �The early years�

This of course has been toned down from the original quote for family channel consumption.

Caradoc

(01/11/2003; 19:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94159)

A sign of the times?

Depending on how old you are, you may remember what happened after Kennedy sent "advisers" into Viet Nam, or what happened after Nixon asked people to stop taking silver quarters out of circulation because they were only worth a quarter, or what happened after Carter said "I will do whatever is necessary to support the dollar." If you think this record of ineptness continues into the new century, you may find it chilling that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has decided that they no longer need their capability to deploy huge generator-equipped 4x4 trucks to provide electricity to disaster sites. Assuming that FEMA is wrong, plan to bring a flashlight to the next disaster. And be glad you bought gold before things got tough.

For anyone is interested: GSA is auctioning the trucks from each FEMA region separately. Four from the Pacific Northwest closed today. One in Georgia closes next Wednesday. Just go to gsaauctions.gov and look under "trucks."

Tacitus

(01/11/2003; 19:36:15 MDT - Msg ID: 94160)

MK, thanks for #94106

Dear MK,

I think I know who you are. I read your book, twice and then some. Thanks for answering my 94095 posting. Now the question for me is what percentage to put into gold. I believe %100 percent in diversification. Timing the market is a losers game as far as I am concerned, or would be for me at least. So a simple diversification, as you said, is the way to go. The thing is we all want to grow our wealth, and I am not in a position to be real conservative. I have to give it more thought.

Your mention of diversification instead of rapid trading, it made me think of John Bogle. I mentioned a number of his articles in posting 94088. At the risk of annoying you, I almost think you are kindred spirits. You seem to apply many of the same principles to investing, however to different financial assets. I would love to hear what you think about his approach to investing in stocks and bonds, via index funds and chosing the age appropriate percentages in stocks and bonds etc. I read his book too (Common Sense in Mutual Funds, New Imperatives for the Common Investor) and something tells me to try to combine the insights from both of you.

One other topics. You mentioned the recent policy speech of Alan Greenspan. I wish I could find that. I would be interested in reading the part where he was hinting at a greater role for gold in a new monetary system, if I understood rightly.

Salve,
Tacitus

silvercollector

(01/11/2003; 20:12:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94161)

Had a horrible thought today......

....if the Iraq thingy suddenly got out of control, would Hussein kidnap and hold hostage the UN inspectors?

sector

(01/11/2003; 20:26:59 MDT - Msg ID: 94162)

@paper Av 89% of Tony Blaiur's Labor Party Opposes the War

Many said they will resignThat could cause a no-confidence vote and if Blair loses such a vote his replacemnent may recall whatever british troupes have been sent to Iraq.

What we seem to be seeing is a debacle in slow motion. The "Coalition" that never existed has hamstrung the President.

The best laid plans of Karl Rove and Paul Wolfowicz crumbling to dust.

The Fed left hanging with no war fog to cover the launch of a necessarily higher gold price.

Paper Avalanche

(01/11/2003; 20:34:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94163)

@sector - Agreed

Thanks for the thoughts. I am curious to know if the movement of Turkish troops into Iraq is, in fact, a short circuit in the plans of the US to secure the sought after oil fields.

Not asking you specifically for info wrt this news report. Just thinking out loud.

Take care.

PAPER AVALANCHE

Christian

(01/11/2003; 21:48:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94164)

(No Subject)

The Euro is backed 15% with gold, but the gold is set aside and not available for trading. If it was'somebody would of have purchased or stole it by now. This gold is set aside as a reserve and is valued the same value as so called free market gold. The truth is there is no free market in commodity gold and credit creation gold is traded in derivative form on the OTC as credit swaps. The most sought after export from USA and Canada is GOLD. We alone are exporting 100 tonnes a year. Have been for many years. We are as stupid as the British are selling gold for the lowest possible price. Who's interests do we serve? The Euro can buy assets just like the dollar can by simply digitalizing digits of no cost. FED has warned all USA European stock funds to sell European stocks for some time now. And they have, but instead of taking most of the money home, they went into European Bonds. We are about to witness the emergence of the old Roman Empire with the Euro faction controlling the northern faction and the free trading gold faction getting a hold on the Middle East. If Bush had an ounce of honesty, he tell the American people on a televised speech that your clan run by your father financed and helped Saddam with his dirty deeds, and that now we must get rid of him and use the oil money to rebuild the country. Then do it-not ask the U.N. for permission. The way it looks now you (the president) may have to suck up to Saddam just to keep others out. We are getting most of Iraq's oil, so why destroy a good thing. Saddam is at his best when he is cornered. Saddam has a card up his sleve and he is going to use it. He is already setting up his retirement home. A deal has already been cut. His younger son is already in charge.

Black Blade

(01/11/2003; 22:09:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94165)

Richard Russell On Gold

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/russell011303.html
Snippit:

Gold is in a primary bull market. Gold, real money, is a very emotional item, in that the central banks are afraid of it, the Austrian economists love gold, people who believe in the US Constitution love gold, inflationists hate gold, certain nations sell gold, other nations lust for gold, men throughout history have lived and died for gold, armies have fought for gold. The reason, gold is the only money that has held its value over the course of history. Gold represents permanent wealth. This has occurred in the face of the fact that every paper currency in history has ultimately sunk to worthlessness. In other words, gold has its detractors and its admirers, millions of them on both sides. But gold is in a very peculiar position today. The central banks of the world are frightened of gold because if gold rises, if it takes an increasing amount of the central banks' paper junk money to buy an ounce of gold, then what the hell is wrong with their fiat paper money? It's a question and a situation that scares the devil out of the central banks. So we can expect a lot of erratic action from gold as the various factions use their propaganda and their arguments for or against gold.

So here's what I'm getting at. Now is the time to accumulate gold and gold stocks. The hard part will be to sit with our gold and gold stocks while the great battle rages. Declines in gold will represent opportunities to accumulate more gold and gold items. Time is on the side of those of us who accumulate gold because in a bull market a given item will appreciate through time. As the Fed generates an increasing amount of credit and paper in their battle to offset the forces of world deflation, the value of gold will increase. It's simple -- central banks are generating vastly more paper than the gold mines can produce in comparable gold values. As gold climbs, be prepared to listen to the propaganda of the gold haters and those who fear gold. "It's too high," "It's being manipulated higher," "It's being bulled by war scares," "It's just a short squeeze." Get used to it -- there's a huge contingent who have a vested interest in gold going nowhere. They possess loud voices, but they're losers. They're losers because they're on the wrong side of the truth.

Black Blade: This is the point that many of us have been discussing for some time. The anti-gold forces continue to bombard the world through the media that Gold is just a "barbarous relic". It is true that the price will bounce around as speculators push the price around, however, we see a secular Bull Market for Gold. The reasons are many such as rising records of debt, economic and geopolitical instability, crumbling world currencies, and tumbling stock markets, among others. We will likely hear a lot of anti-gold commentary in coming weeks and months (especially on any price dips). The visual and print media are sure to come out with more anti-gold propaganda and guest commentary from Wall Street investment banks and an assortment of analysts (at least those not currently under SEC investigation). Physical demand worldwide is rising fast and producers are unwinding their hedge books. Sure we will see some occasional pullbacks but that is normal in any Bull Market. So don't get too excited when the primates argue against Gold because we have heard all before � even while Gold moved up from $255 to $355 and their recommendations were pathetic losers.

sector

(01/11/2003; 22:19:58 MDT - Msg ID: 94166)

The Denial by Gul of US Troupe Staging in Turkey Means...

...No Iraq war.With Turkey an effective obstacle, others will bow out of the "Coalition" too. Perhaps even Britian.

Saddam is a ruthless thug but another Bush has been outsmarted once again.

First it was the Saudis talking Bush the 1rst out of an attack on the Iraq capital in '91, this time Turkey moves decisively to block the US. President Gul is in Saudi Arabia right now probably "Explaining" his Northern Iraq/ Anti-Kurd[The US puppets] rationale to the Royal Family long before he says anything to the US.

Ultimately the failure of the US to muster a real Army is at the core of our failed interventional military policy in Iraq and elsewhere. To imagine that Tommy Franks could invade a nation of 26 million hostiles and subjugate it with 60,000 on the ground combat troupes tells one a great deal about the disconnect from reality at the Pentagon and especially at the White House.

The supply lines are 400 kms long. Everything is mined. Forget the chems and bios. A ring defense of Iraq's cities with recruited and children firing away. Every soldier there knows this is about oil.

The Blair warning about "Legal problems" with the war was an acknowledgement that [As Drudge Reports] his party won't back the war without UN approval...which won't happen.

So Bush looks like a fool at the end of next week or he charges in like a madman precipitating unknowable chaos.

Machiavelli warned the King not to listen to exiles. Too bad the Bushies were drinking beer in History class.

mikal

(01/11/2003; 22:21:58 MDT - Msg ID: 94167)

@Christian

I always enjoy your posts and agree with most of your observations. In Iraq, I too see many obstacles to predictable outcomes, yet giving more room and opportunity for discussions & negotiations. For example, the recent reports of 200 GPS jammers in Iraq and the Turkish and British scene.
"We are about to witness the reemergence of the old Roman empire with the Euro faction controlling the northern..." This is VERY interesting. The free gold faction won't prevail in all of the original Euro Group of 12? If so, how? TIA!

mikal

(01/11/2003; 22:33:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94168)

@Sector

I agree. Except for two questions: 1) How effective are those U.S. mine "blankets" that deploy out like a net and discharge mine fields? 2) What would a 9-11 scale terror attack or series of attacks against western targets do to the Brit's resolve, American opinion, UN, etc.? Thanks.

Christian

(01/11/2003; 23:01:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94169)

The Euro and somewhat free market>

>will trade side by side. Where the Euro is legal tender gold will become a savings vehicle. And in the Middle East gold will be legal tender and the Euro will become the investment currency. The Euro is a free trading vehicle as far as its value goes. The Euro $ has no set value and neither does gold. Both can move up or down based on demand. The Euro is comming out with a gold coin with no value stamped on it in 2004. The U.S. $ and the Euro have the same problem. Assets such as stocks, bonds, homes are overpriced, cost of labor and benefits promised is to high. Both currencies will devalue and a new gold currency will emerge as a form of savings (stored labor). But the Euro has an advantage over the $. The more gold goes up the more backing the Euro has and with it they can expand. Germany still has 111 million troy oz., of gold and like Switzerland they are selling it to the social security pension fund. This is a very good idea because now the pension funds will have an asset that does not depend on someone els's liability. Unlike our social security funds that get robbed every year of its cash value which is replaced with debt instruments we the people have to pay to get our own money back. What good is a lock box if it is not used. Euro handlers will have to keep the Euro honest or the people have a way to move savings into Euro. We should be doing the same.

Christian

(01/11/2003; 23:06:00 MDT - Msg ID: 94170)

should read>

The Euro handlers will have to keep the Euro honest or the people will store their savings in gold.

The Invisible Hand

(01/11/2003; 23:20:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94171)

Two madmen?

sector:

You said in msg#: 94166 among other things:
The Blair warning about "Legal problems" with the war was an acknowledgement that [As Drudge Reports] his party won't back the war without UN approval...which won't happen.
So Bush looks like a fool at the end of next week or he charges in like a madman precipitating unknowable chaos.

If I look at the headlines of the British press today (Sunday), Blair is already acting like a madman. (Granted he has not yet started any military "action".)

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/
Blair acts to avert Suez-crisis
Tony Blair will make a personal appeal to sceptical Labour MPs this week, asking them to back his stance on Iraq

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/story.jsp?story=368619
Back away from war, Labour warns Blair
Exclusive survey of top party officials reveals huge opposition to bombing

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/01/12/nirq12.xml&sSheet=/portal/2003/01/12/ixportaltop.html&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=40397
You're losing the party over Iraq, Cabinet warns Blair
SNIP
Tony Blair has been warned by Cabinet ministers that he must take urgent steps to "sell" his military strategy on Iraq as he faces the threat of rebellion from Labour MPs and party members.
The Prime Minister is being urged to "hit the road" and undertake a nationwide tour explaining the need for military action to counter the growing threat of mass defections from party activists.

Black Blade

(01/12/2003; 00:10:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94172)

Gold is the currency that shines

http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=343&art_id=ct20030111192611269S524391&set_id=60
Snippit:

Johannesburg - Gold was the strongest major currency in 2002, outperforming the other majors by between 9 percent and 25 percent over the year, the World Gold Council said this week in its review of the metal's performance last year. And gold prices look set to rise again in 2003. Many analysts thought there was a good chance it could reach $400 an ounce, Dow Jones Newswires reported on Friday. It said that even if there was a pullback on fading war threats, gold demand could be driven by China thanks to that country's recently liberalised gold markets.

Black Blade: Gold demand in China remains strong and there is no sign of it letting up. One recent report suggests that the country may eventually have to import Gold to meet demand.

Black Blade

(01/12/2003; 00:11:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94173)

Gold outperforms major currencies, markets in '02

http://www.gulfnews.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=73719
Snippit:

The performance of gold's price during 2002 largely reflects the fact that the professional investor has returned to the use of gold as a risk management tool, a World Gold Council (WGC) report noted. Over the course of the year, gold outperformed the dollar by 25 per cent, the yen by 14 per cent, sterling by 13 per cent, the euro by 9 per cent and the Swiss franc, the other major recipient of 'safe haven' funds (notably from the Middle East), by 7 per cent. The search for alternative assets is reflected in the relative performance against the major equity markets. Over the year, gold outperformed the FTSE by 52 per cent, the Dow by 47 per cent,the Nikkei by 44 per cent and the European index by 36 per cent.

Early background: The price started to improve in 1999 and 2000 on the back of strong physical regional demand and speculative short-covering. The former stabilised the price in mid-1999 just above $250/ounce and then took it slowly higher; the latter developed because of stable gold prices and falling money market interest rates. The fact that this was happening in a period of relative political and financial calm, when there was no perceived need for substantial risk management, did bring gold to the attention of some money managers and other investors in the 'professional' arena.

Recent developments: Investment in the latter part of 2002 and at the start of 2003 has been driven by geo-political concerns but the underlying background is more complex, and reflects currency concerns, along with the desire to hedge against risks in the equity and bond markets and, notably in the case of Argentina and Japan, risks in the banking sector. Corporate governance problems also played a strong part during the first part of 2002, as a deepening mistrust of corporate reports and accounts augmented some investors' desire to hedge against equity exposure. Gold thus reasserted itself as an alternative asset class, enabling the professional investor to diversify his risk. With concerns also swirling in the markets about the destiny of the dollar, the euro and the yen, gold and the Swiss franc came into play as reserve currencies.

Black Blade: The fundamental case for Gold remains very strong. The same factors supporting Gold for the last two years remain in place, the US dollar continues to weaken, debt levels are rising, equities markets remain under pressure (especially with another "energy crisis" coming in view).

Black Blade

(01/12/2003; 00:24:37 MDT - Msg ID: 94174)

Bully for bullion

http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/2003/01/12/business/money/money01.asp
Gold continues to dominate investor sentiment - and some analysts predict that the bull run is far from over, writes Jeremy Thomas.

Snippit:

"We have employed three strategies in managing the fund," says Sacks. "First, with the run in the gold price we took the decision to give investors maximum leverage to it. We therefore switched out of goldmines hedging their production and shifted our focus to the more leveraged counters. "Second, the gold sector is going through consolidation as it is still a very fragmented industry. Identifying possible corporate targets, such as Aurion Gold, which was recently acquired by Placer Dome, benefited the fund over recent months. Michael Schroder, head of equity research at Old Mutual Asset Managers, says the gold price is still low by historical standards, and the fundamentals are positive. "Central banks are the key risk for the downside. Most of the key holders are presently colluding to limit their annual disposals and I would expect them to continue to do so," says Schroder. "History has also shown that central bankers are not really good at it, as they tend to sell when the price is low and change their mind when it is going up. At the moment they are facing a tricky situation, with an unprecedented general unattractiveness of the world's major currencies. The US dollar is overvalued, the yen is zero-yielding and the euro is in danger of failing. So, maybe we will see the Bank of England repurchase that gold soon - which they sold at the bottom - now that the price has gone up."

Black Blade: Sounds about right.

Aristotle

(01/12/2003; 00:42:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94175)

The stupidest thing I've ever seen in print -- nearly!

"...the euro is in danger of failing. So, maybe we will see the Bank of England repurchase that gold soon - which they sold at the bottom - now that the price has gone up." Thanks, BB, for bringing forth the chuckle of the day.

On another note, Sierra, I'm glad you've seemingly seen the light. Thanks Belgian, for your kind patience and masterful elocution on a difficult and wearying subject. You da man!

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Belgian

(01/12/2003; 01:24:19 MDT - Msg ID: 94176)

@Sovereign

The National Bank of Belgium is owned by the treasury and the public as publicly quoted on the Brussels stockmarket.
The EMU member states (present and future) bring in the capital for the ECB and are entitled to the profits that the ECB generates. The future EMU members will become co-owners of the ECB pro-rata of their input.
The ECB is therefore owned and managed by its member states.

Today the public shareholders of the National Bank of Belgium are claiming ( through Deminor) the profits from the Belgian goldsales that was done by the NB. But those profits go to the treasury. Who owns the treasury ?

Bottomline : EMU members and their ECB and their respective gold-exchange-reserves, ALL gain when the price of Gold goes up. All their "old" dollar-reserves will be replaced with pure Gold-reserves that will have compensated for the dollar-reserves. Euroland doesn't need those dollars anymore because we have our own currency. There is no other way than Gold-compensation, for getting rid of those masses of dollars (reserves) accumulated during the past 70 years !

Do you understand now why the dollar-block wants the euro to fail ?
The dollar already failed and will be removed from the globe's reserves, through Gold compensation. A rising POG is the terminator of the dollar. Full circle.

Belgian

(01/12/2003; 01:24:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94177)

@Sovereign

Belgian

(01/12/2003; 01:24:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94178)

@Sovereign

Belgian

(01/12/2003; 01:28:40 MDT - Msg ID: 94181)

Sorryyyyyy

Was typing when still on line and pressed the button 4 times.

Belgian

(01/12/2003; 01:49:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94182)

@ Aristotles

Isn't it instructive to ask oneself why this new euro-currency is hated and/or ridiculed, even after all those years of preparation, launch and progressive (succesful)expansion ?

If the euro and Euroland were simply another "experiment", doomed to fail...why all the fuss about it ? Not in the least by mouth of the most closely UK-dollar-ally. Thatcher stopped her anti-euro lectures, for quite some time now.

If the euro "is" a dwarf, have a good laugh and praize it into the abyss. No, the euro is a full-blood competitor to the US$ and experienced as such, today. I thought that "competition" was good and appreciated by the dollar-free-marketeers ?

Duisenberg calls the euro : *OUR* money !!! Frits Bolkenstein talked in his recent report about the "WEALTH" (!!!!!!) that the euro has brought to Euroland since its inception. Repeat WEALTH !

Sorry BB, but you will have to live with it. The euro want go away. Because it is a friend of GOLD as you, me and many others are here.

Black Blade

(01/12/2003; 02:55:14 MDT - Msg ID: 94183)

Re: Belgian and Ari � European Monetary Union

All currencies eventually fail. History has not been all that good for fiat. The current "Currency War" has resulted in devaluation of most currencies while Gold has never disappeared from the scene and now surges higher. However, maybe we should take a look at previous European monetary unions.

On January 1 2002, about 300 million people in 12 European countries moved over to the new European currency, the euro. However, it was not the first time that Europeans have tried to unite with the use of a common monetary unit in theory and in practice. In Europe, there have been attempts for the introduction of common currency that can be dated back to the roman times. In modern times, though, the first currency union was attempted in the early 19th century in the German lands.

The Zollverein was both a customs and a monetary union and became the first step towards the German political unity. It started in 1818 with the union of the North German States and more political units joined by 1866. As a variety of coins were minted and used in the area and only some were commonly recognized, a series of acts was introduced to standardize the systems of coinage among the 39 different states. The common currency was knows as the Vereinsmunze The Zollverein proved to be a great success and became one of the major tools for the political unification of Germany in 1871. In 1876 the Reichbank was established to control all coinage and paper currency and the Reichsmark was introduced as the common German currency.

In 1848, France, Belgium, and Switzerland entered into a currency union known as the Latin Monetary Union. Italy, Greece and Bulgaria were accepted in the union by 1867 as the founding countries invited other Europeans to join them. The gold and silver coins of each country were freely interchanged across the area. However, there was no single currency and countries kept minting and using their national coins and an exchange commission of 1.25% was charged to convert them. Although the union was initially successful, wars and the financial instability brought about by the First World War caused the union to come to an end in 1927.

In 1873 Sweden and Denmark established a similar monetary union. Norway joined in 1875 and Scandinavian Monetary Union was officially formed. All three countries accepted each others' gold coins as legal tender in their territories. The union was very successful until Norway declared her political independence in 1924 and forced Sweden to announce the dissolution of the union.

So the real question is will European nations freely give up sovereignty as independent nations with separate political systems and cultures or will they finally merge as Germany did in the first example in order for the Euro monetary union to succeed? Will Berlin be the capital of the United States of Europe? Even with gold as a unit of exchange the Latin and Scandinavian Unions failed because they did not truly merge into one country with a common political system and they even used precious metals as their units of exchange. When one nation violates the terms of the Maastrich Treaty's protocols will they be forced back in line as a matter of law? If so � which law? That is, will it be a unified "European" law or some individual nation's law and who or how is it enforced (if at all)? What if some nations adhere to the strict fiscal disciplines outlined in the Treaty and others do not? Are they expelled from the "Union"? So far Italy and Spain apparently have not pulled their national budget deficits into line and even Germany is at risk of huge deficits as well. The only way I see this "Union" and ultimate success of the "Euro" is by the abolition of national sovereignty and the absolute merging into a single nation.

Anyway, that's my take on the EU and the Euro.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/12/2003; 03:13:22 MDT - Msg ID: 94184)

Monetary Unions � Some Successes and Some Failures

http://euro.pearl-online.com/English/PressArticles/unions_mc_gb.html
Monetary unions which succeeded

Zollverein (German customs union): at the time of the Congress of Vienna (1815) the German Confederation consisted of 39 states each with their own currency and also a myriad of different weights and measures. The German customs union was established in 1834 and by 1857 monetary union was also achieved (a dual currency system based on the North German Thaler and the South German Gulden irrevocably fixed at a rate of 1:1.75). Thanks to the fact that the Prussian central bank was given responsibility for overall economic and monetary policy, the union lasted until after political union in 1871. The dual-currency system was replaced by the Reichsmark in 1875. In spite of two fundamental currency reforms (in 1923 and 1948), the currency union has survived until today in the form of the Deutsche Mark.

Switzerland: Until 1848, the year in which the Helvetic Confederation adopted a federal constitution, the Swiss Cantons used a variety of different currencies, which proved to be a major obstacle with regard to intra-cantonal trade. By creating the Swiss Franc, the new federation also created for the first time a single Swiss market.

CFA Franc: this currency union encompasses 12 former French African territories, 1 former Spanish colony and one territory in the Indian Ocean. In spite of a major devaluation in 1994, the union has lasted for about 40 years, thanks primarily to the fact that the union is managed effectively by France.

Belgium-Luxemburg : since 1921 these two countries have a highly successful currency union. Management of the union is effectively in the hands of the Belgian Central Bank.

Monetary unions which failed

Latin Monetary Union: following independence in 1830 Belgium decided to base its own Franc on the French Franc standard. The 2 currencies were later joined by Switzerland in 1848 (see above), Italy (1861), Greece and Bulgaria (1867). The union, based on a bimetallic standard (whereby gold and silver were fixed against each other at a rate of 15.5:1) was formalized in 1865. All participating currencies were at parity with each other; coins and notes of each participating currency were interchangeable against each other subject to a commission of 1.25%. Although it lasted in name until 1929, the union effectively broke down as a result of differing inflationary policies pursued during the 1914-1918 war. The union had several flaws: the bimetallic standard proved unmanageable due to the fluctuating market prices for gold and silver and a single gold standard was adopted in 1878; there was no common economic or monetary policy and no central monetary authority; the possibility to exchange also subsidiary coins up to an amount of 100 Francs per transaction also led to abuses; finally, there was no will to achieve political integration.

Scandinavian Monetary Union: this union, which lasted from 1870 until 1924, was set up on the model of the Latin Monetary Union. It also became a victim of the inflationary policies of the 1914 - 1918 war. Its basic inherent flaws were to all intents and purposes the same as in the Latin Monetary Union.

East African Currency Area: this union which included Kenya, Uganda as well as Tanganyika and Zanzibar (later Tanzania) initially had a common currency, the East African Shilling. On independence, the three countries issued their own notes and coins, which were nevertheless in free circulation throughout the union. The union collapsed in 1977 following the liquidation of the Sterling Area. Without the discipline of the Bank of England, each country started to pursue a different economic and monetary policy, rendering the continuation of the union impossible.

Black Blade: The underlying feature for a successful monetary union appears to be a successful "political integration". Will Europe be willing to take the plunge to "Political Unification"? I guess time will tell.

(01/12/2003; 03:38:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94185)

US Demands create confusion in Turkey

US has demanded unconditional usage of 4 airports, 2 Mediterranean ports, 2 Black Sea ports. US also demands permanent location of 90,000 (ninety thousand) troops in eastern Turkey.

What is the relevance of Black Sea ports to the Iraq war?

When, and under what conditions shall the 90,000 troops leave?

Who is the real target of this operation? Iraq or Turkey? Confusion�

Husky

(01/12/2003; 03:40:54 MDT - Msg ID: 94186)

Euro

The Euro is doing just fine. Americans do not understand the extent to which political integration had already been achieved at the lower layers, e.g. daily life, nor the reasons why the uppermost layers have nominally been left as-is (in part so as to not allow foreign powers a handle to grab onto to subvert the democratic process). It isn't supposed to look and smell like a United States of Europe. So you're not going to find much insight into what's going on with it by using that model as a yardstick.

Boxman

(01/12/2003; 06:39:06 MDT - Msg ID: 94187)

Puplava

Snip:
Given all of these uncertainties, where should one invest this year? I believe the "Next Big Thing" is going to be in "things" such as commodities. The big winners in this decade are going to be gold, silver, and energy. Other commodities from sugar, coffee, cocoa and grains, to other soft goods will also be winners. Commodity prices will rise because of two trends: a declining US dollar and rising populations and industrialization of developing economies.

The time for paper is over and the rise of "things" has just begun. Another trend that is taking place is what Marc Faber calls the reemergence of the emerging economies. Economic power is moving from the West to the East and this trend is irreversible.

Usul

(01/12/2003; 06:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94188)

Negative equity is coming back

http://www.thisismoney.com/20030112/nm57752.html"House prices are substantially over-valued"

Boxman

(01/12/2003; 06:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94189)

Puplavas' latest--Oracles, Soothsayers & Fortune Tellers

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htmSorry, itchy tripper finger. As usual, another thought provoking essay by Mr. Puplava, no punches are pulled.

Christian

(01/12/2003; 07:15:02 MDT - Msg ID: 94190)

The Merchants of debt and death.

New York is the imperial capital for the merchants of debt and death. By enslaving America with debts by means of loan peddling and usury practices, they own it all under the heading of the DTC. They use U.S. military interventions as retaliatory acts of terrorism. -- Putin being a KGB man has good financial instincts. To get his country moving his first act was to get rid of debt by default. Little did he know his actions brought about the LTCM fallout. Putin will never forgive Yeltson and U.S. Merchants of Debt for looting Mother Russia. Since he came to power he has used ITERA to suck western capital in for oil well drilling and mineral discovery. As soon as the money and know-how stopped to come in, he simply stripped that entity of its assets just like Carlyle group does. Backing the ruble with oil and precious metal has put some life back into the rubble. But most important placing a gold coin into circulation has made possible for people to have a means of storing savings. His backing for Turkey to move on the two oil fields is a streak of genius. Using ITERA to buy up US and Canadian oil companies is a way to get access to capital. Old Russia could not get the Taliban out of Afghanistan but Putin got the U.S. to do it for him. The Afghanistan pipeline fiasco will drain the Bush Clan of some of their ill gotten gain. Getting the Enron trading platform into ITERA and giving Iran and Turkey access to it will help him move (swap) oil. Russian oil will move into Turkey and Iran while their oil goes for export. Putin wants to increase oil, precious metal and lumber sales to Europe and the military hardware sale to the Middle East. He even made inroads into Saudi Arabia for military equipment sales.

Usul

(01/12/2003; 07:17:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94191)

Lies, damned lies and jobless figures

http://www.thisismoney.com/news.aspExcerpts from an article by Dan Atkinson in Financial Mail on Sunday, Jan 12, 2003:

"New jobless figures this week will highlight a surge in the number of unemployed people being kept off the books by re-labelling them sick or disabled.

While the so-called claimant count of umemployment has tumbled in recent years, there has been a steady increase in those not working because of long-term illness or disability. These now number 745,000, an increase of 11 per cent since Labour came to power.

David Willetts, Conservative spokesman on work and pensions, said: "Ironically, this is what Labour accused us of doing when we were in office. When you are running a Job-centre, trying to meet Government targets for reducing unemployment, it is tempting to count people as sick or disabled to get them off the claimant count."...

[snipped]

Geoffrey Dicks, chief economist with Royal Bank of Scotland, said "It's a mystery as to how the claimant count keeps falling when everyone has expected it to rise"..."

[snipped]

Note: It's on the same printed page as "French customers shun Egg" and "Cahoot pays �1m for rates error", but oddly enough I can not find it on the internet version.

PH in LA

(01/12/2003; 07:40:48 MDT - Msg ID: 94192)

Gold Terrorism, Physical-Only Markets, etc: Questions for Belgian to ponder

Greetings Belgian:

MK used to talk of a potential gold buyer trying to buy a large amount of gold by the ton who was told that the price for such an amount of physical gold would be some hundreds of dollars above spot. (This was way back when the POG was in the $250 range.)

The implication of this thought is that in theory, the end of the futures-based gold pricing mechanism of price discovery is only a heartbeat away. (Easily within reach of terrorists or a war-threatened middle-eastern dictator, North Korean madman, etc.) An annonamouse large buyer would only have to stand for delivery on 1000 contracts. The cost of such a move would only be �$35 million, for which the exchange would have to supply 100,000 ozs in the form of good delivery bars. We are led to believe that nobody with the necessary financial clout would think of doing such a thing as it would effectively destroy the paper market as it presently exists. You say today: " There is no other way than Gold-compensation, for getting rid of those masses of dollars (reserves) accumulated during the past 70 years !" as if this is a viable option, yet a few minutes of thought tell us that it is actually impossible with the present system in place.

FOA shocked us all when he spoke of Another's insight that the paper market pricing structure could eventually fail downwards. (This, if I recall correctly, was postulated at the nadir of the POG saga, $255/gold and lots of talk of $220 and lower.) At that same moment, FOA talked long and hard about the reasons for an eventual separation of the paper price from the physical price and eventually came up with his "physical only" market to be set up in Euroland. He postulated that the mechanism for such a market would rest on laws making the enforcement of paper/futures-based contracts illegal. ORO claimed that such a plan would be unthinkable... as it would be under the present system.

My questions for you: Are there actually plans for a physical-only market on the books at this time? Much of your thought is based on an eventual acceptance of this concept. Can you point us at anybody else talking about such a thing? We know that the Chinese are supposedly in the process of making gold ownership legal for their citizens and that they have set up some kind of market in Shanghai for this purpose. Have you (or anybody else) studied this market enough to know if it will complement the "physical only" market you talk about for Euroland? Is the market in Dubai related in any meaningful way to this concept? In other words, how far away is your "physical only" gold market? Are there plans afoot that are affecting the gold market now? Or is the $100-rise witnessed this past year (threatening to explode further at any moment) part of this picture, or just a blip on the paper/future-based system we all know and love?

miner49er

(01/12/2003; 07:43:37 MDT - Msg ID: 94193)

Husky @ 94186 -- Euro...

Bravo! Well said...

Cheers,
miner

ElGordo

(01/12/2003; 07:47:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94194)

Al-Qaeda have chemical weapons in N Iraq

http://news.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/01/12/wirq12.xml&sSheet=/news/2003/01/12/ixworld.html/news/2003/01/12/wirq12.xmlFollowing the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, scores of Arab al-Qaeda fighters have joined them after escaping through Iran.

Saddam is believed to have been secretly supporting the Ansar enclave with money and military assistance because they share an enemy in the PUK.

The Telegraph reported last year that members of his Republican Guard had been seen in two Ansar-run villages by Western intelligence officials on a reconnaissance mission.

Ansar's founder, Mullah Fatih Kraker, was arrested in Holland last September, but the group has continued to grow rapidly and now has 2,000 fighters, compared with fewer than 600 six months ago - many of them Arabs who fled from Afghanistan.

"If America invades Iraq, we will attack its troops," Hasan told the Turkish journalist Namik Durukan, who was smuggled into the Ansar "capital", Biyare, last week. "Our relations with others is based on their attitude to God. If they are against our God, we will attack them."

Durukan reported seeing hundreds of foreign fighters in the region. "Bearded warriors with arms on their backs walk in the streets with their children, followed by their wives wearing the chador," he said. "They say they have come for jihad and a government that rules with sharia."

A sprawling wooden mosque complex dominates the centre of the town from where the mullahs of the radical Islamic group are spreading a reign of terror across the eastern part of the Kurdish territory.

From Ansar's stronghold on the Sharazoor Plains, its fighters have moved across the Shineray mountains to capture dozens of villages, where they have imposed the strict rules of the Shariat.

The strategic passes into the mountains, which are pockmarked with caves and ravines, command access to the Iran-Iraq border.

Ansar territory is guarded by units equipped with mortars, heavy machine guns and rocket launchers. The area has been described as an Iraqi Tora Bora, the mountainous stronghold where al-Qaeda made its last stand in Afghanistan.

Much of Ansar's stock of chemicals was smuggled in by Abu Wa-il, a former agent of the Iraqi secret service, Mukhabarat; his present whereabouts are unknown. He provided the logistics for smuggling from Saddam-controlled areas, and the funding to acquire weapons and materials, almost certainly with Baghdad's approval.

Kurdish officials say that Ansar is experimenting with chemical weapons on animals and humans. Since the arrival of al-Zarqawi, Ansar has dispatched at least one team of would-be suicide bombers, wearing tailored waistcoats studded with TNT, in a failed attempt to assassinate a Kurdish leader.

The devastating effects of chemical weapons are well known in the area. At the foot of the mountains lies the city of Halabja which suffered an Iraqi chemical weapon attack in 1988. Residents are now afraid that a second batch of deadly poisons will descend from the mountains, this time from the radical Islamic group.

"Ansar has taken chemical weapons left over from the Iran-Iraq war," said Mohammad Aziz, a Kurdish official in Halabja. "We feel the pressure of waiting in fear that they will throw chemicals on us again and hell will return."

Usul

(01/12/2003; 07:47:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94195)

Sharp rise in US job losses adds to gloom

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1039524464925"US job losses increased sharply last month, adding to concerns about the weakening global economic recovery...

"Ian Morris, economist at HSBC, said the December figures were another example of the labour market disappointing even as other data suggested the economy might be picking up - "only this time the recent trend appears to be showing renewed deterioration"..."

misetich

(01/12/2003; 08:57:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94196)

Pimco's Bill Gross on the US $ - What Comes Up Must ...

http://www.pimco.com/ca/bonds_commentary_investment_outlook_0103.htmSnip:

To this mix of potential reflationary palliatives must be added one additional (and perhaps the one most dangerous) hole card for U.S. policymakers to play. I speak of the dollar and its potential depreciation, which - if done gradually and without causing investor flight - would correct a number of global imbalances that are holding down growth and inflation at the same time. That's a big "IF," however, and astute observers know it. Foreigners now hold over $7 trillion of U.S. assets and they will not take kindly to a devaluing of their investments. 13% of the U.S. stock market, 35% of the U.S. Treasury market, 23% of the U.S. corporate bond market, and 14% direct ownership in U.S. companies are now in the hands of foreign investors. It's a theater crowded with foreigners and if someone yells "Fire, Feuer, or Kaji" there could be a rather crushing stampede for the exits.
................

A "strong" dollar policy, however, has been part of the U.S. economic mantra ever since Robert Rubin first uttered the words in 1995 after succeeding Lloyd Bentsen as Treasury Secretary. His presumed (although never directly stated) belief was that a strong dollar would attract foreign investment and lift all market boats. Mr. Rubin succeeded beyond anyone's most bubblish dreams, but now with the trade deficit at 6% of GDP, and our need to attract nearly 80% of all the world's ongoing savings just to keep the dollar at current levels, an end to the party is clearly in sight. Future investment by foreigners in anything with a $ sign attached is at risk. In addition, Rubin's policy succeeded so famously that our bonds and our stocks now have lower yields and much higher P/Es than most other alternative markets. Rubin and his successors have painted us into a corner from which either a falling dollar, depreciating financial markets, or both are nearly inevitable.
................

What I think I do know however is that every weapon in the global arsenal will be fired at some future point to prevent declining prices and a concomitant economic collapse.
*************
Misetich

It is interesting that Gross has a chart on the 'strong US $ policy' that starts in 1995 - coincentally when gold prices in $ started their descend -

Got gold?

Paper Avalanche

(01/12/2003; 09:12:42 MDT - Msg ID: 94197)

@ misetich

I find the following from your posted article below to be absolutely mind-boggling:

"our need to attract nearly 80% of all the world's ongoing savings just to keep the dollar at current levels"

It is like having a dead beat uncle to whom you have loaned all of your life savings and who requires that you give him 80% of all your future savings or he will default and you lose everything. My strategy to correct such a delimma would be to gradually convert my Uncle's IOU's into something of value while others are still willing to exchange his worthless scrip for tangible assets.

Take care.

PAPER AVALANCHE

Sierra Madre

(01/12/2003; 10:05:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94198)

Thoughts for Sunday - maybe interesting, maybe not....

"Who owns the "X" Central Bank?" I have seen this question several times in recent days, and it got me thinking.

A Balance Sheet is a financial "photograph" of a person, company or institution at a given moment, showing what it owns (Assets) and who owns it (Liabilities)

There are diverse categories of liabilities and corresponding ownerships: you can own a company, to a certain extent, by being a supplier with a credit to collect for merchandise or services; you can own it by being a creditor, having supplied it with a loan - there are different categories of creditors with various rights.

Or you can own all or part of the company, by being a Stockholder. There are also various categories of stockholders, preferred, common, etc.

That is the usual way of thinking of "ownership" of a company or institution.

But, there is another and quite subtle way of being an owner of a company or institution: through the Assets, which are (supposedly) owned by the company itself.

If I am the only, or by far the most important issuer of debt (my Liability) which the company or institution HOLDS AS AN ASSET, I am really the actual owner of the company or institution. Why? Because I can freeze or delay payment of my debt; because I can declare bankruptcy or threaten to do so; because I can destroy the company if I wish to do so, by turning its principal Asset into garbage.

All the Central Banks of the world are owned by the FED! Why? Because their main asset is, in all cases by far, dollar assets in the form of US BONDS (US liabilities).

Here is where the ECB, with its revaluation of gold reserves, is wiggling out of "ownership" by the FED. The gold reserves are going to become, in due course, its main asset. Gold is an asset that is not the FED's or anyone else's liability. Through GOLD, the ECB will become, is in the process of becoming, independent of the FED and self-owned or nationally owned. (Who "represents the Nation" at the board meetings of the ECB and gold-owning Central Banks, is another question).

The Islamic Bloc will also seek the same path. China is accumulating gold. Russia is accumulating gold. US dollar imperialism has had its day. The "colonies" owned by the FED are seceding in fact.

The world will become multi-polar in due course. A much healthier situation, from a human point of view. Of course, the transition period will be painful, but a sounder situation will prevail later on in this century. "Nature abhors monopoly".

We, as individuals, can also attain a degree of independence, through direct ownership of gold. Hop on the train, before it leaves the station!

Call CPM, don't delay one minute!

Sierra

Gandalf the White

(01/12/2003; 10:17:06 MDT - Msg ID: 94199)

A "Thanks" to Sir Sierra Madre and a QUESTION to Sir Rookie !! <;-)

Sierra Madre (01/12/03; 10:05:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 94198)
Thoughts for Sunday - maybe interesting, maybe not....
===
THANKS Sir Sierra Madre !! GREAT THINKING "outside the box" !!!
---
Question to Sir Rookie --- DID you see that post ?
---
<;-)

Paper Avalanche

(01/12/2003; 10:23:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94200)

So the Pope won't sell any gold ehhh...

http://news.yahoo.com/fc?tmpl=fc&cid=34∈=us&cat=catholic_church_abuse_scandalWe'll show him!

PA

Christian

(01/12/2003; 10:36:02 MDT - Msg ID: 94201)

Our need to attract 80% of all world's savings is >

> because 95% of all money in USA is bank credit created, owing an average of 7% interest. The remaining 5% of physical money be it 5,10,20, etc paper bills and coins in circulation is insufficient to pay even the interest for 1 year. Consequently interest is continually compounted as debt. The whole economy is forced to slave away at the impossible task of trying to repay the ever increasing debt. This is a mathematical certainty. Bank loans are of bank created credit only. To whom is the money owed? To the very same banks that created the credit. How do banks create the credit? Lease commodity gold or any other real thing, sell it to themselves, from that create a deposit and use the reserve credit creation vehicle to make more deposits that become reserves for more loans over and over again and again. The borrower being ever more stupid does not realize that it is his or her signature that is used to create money. The borrower is exchanging his equity for units of whatever currency it is that cost the bank nothing to make up. The units are not in physical form and the ever stupid borrower will have to attempt to pay his debt with cash he somehow was able to make or borrow more credit units to pay down his old debt. In 1997 interest took 23% of profits and in 2002 it took 100%. The pricipal is now comming out as a reverse mortgage on equity. Those who create and issue money and credit direct the policies of government and hold in the hollow of their hands the destiny of the people.

Carl H

(01/12/2003; 10:39:58 MDT - Msg ID: 94202)

Paper Avalance: Re Vatican Gold

I absolutely agree with your assessment that the preist scandal is being used to put pressure on the Vatican to release their substantial gold holdings. I certainly don't condone what some priests have done, but I do think that the situation is being taken advantage of.

I also believe that it is a very dangerous game. Consider how it could provoke the IRA if they realized what is happening. I suspect that, if pushed, the IRA could make Al Queda look like a bunch of girl scouts.

Interesting to watch isn't it. It is truely amazing what lows the "Mayberry Machiavellis" in the White House will stoop to.

Henri

(01/12/2003; 10:45:48 MDT - Msg ID: 94203)

Sector Msg 94135 and Paper Avalanche msg 94151

Debka's files are probably the last to be updated with such undertow. The middle east will never countenance occupation by Western forces; however, they endured several centuries of occupation under the Ottoman regime. The idea that Turkey could function as the best choice for a occupational administrator since it has islamic roots as well as a staunchly secular government backed by a strong and legendarily fierce military, I first heard proposed circa 1997-1998.

Have the players been in motion in the backfield all this time??? Certainly a Turkish advance to the outskirts of Bagdad will encompass the oilfields recently diplomatically ceeded to the Russian interests...perhaps the sale of Russian oil to Turkey and Iran freeing up the rest for export was another "swap" arrangement. Would US interests countenance a Turkey locked in Euro trade to manage the affairs of these historically politically unstable geopolitical regions??? I have to ask myself. Self, when was the last time these regions had some measure of political stability. The answer comes back...not since the breakup of the Ottoman empire which stretched across the overland trade routes to the far east "Silk and spice" markets. Markets every bit as economically important in those days as the oil market is today. That the peoples of this region only respect governance based on strength is only accentuated by their embracement of SH. The Ottomans ruled this region with iron strength but never sapped it of its prime directive which was the facilitation of merchantile initiative.

How unlike a western approach which most certainly would tax and deprive those who would otherwise profit and thrive happily under a strong but beneficent occupation by folk who understand that trade is the lifeblood of an empire. The folks who populate this region have no interest in self-government. They only want to trade and profit. Much easier to let someone else keep the peace.

Does it suprise anyone that Turkey's strongest proponents of late have been the US and Israel. Brulent Ecevit's retirement may not have been the lynchpin for these developments ut merely a convenient turning point to be able to throw up our collective hands and say Oh look! those naughty Turk's have retaken Iraq (not unlike SH did to Kuwait)ahead of us and want to sell us their oil.

Oh darn the luck! And we don't need to support an occupation force in a land of hostiles...? Gad, It was brilliant then and still has merit.

The architect? Kudo's to JW of the Reagan era who also is credited with masterminding the engineered collapse of the USSR.

sector

(01/12/2003; 10:55:58 MDT - Msg ID: 94204)

@ Misetich Will the Deval be FAST or SLOW?

"...they will not take kindly to a devaluing of their investments."The above statement carries the answer. The world and its central bankers will not sit still as the pain of a slowly devaluing dollar grinds away at their paper and metallic wealth.

Much better to shear it off with one blinding Federal Reserve Policy whack.

One morning gold shoots skyward before anyone can react. 2X, 3X take your pick. Getting gold to do that is easy when the only force holding it down is central bank selling.

A big reason weighing against a slow dollar devaluation grind is that it consumes an increasing volume of already-dwindled-by-half central bank gold. Any corrective policy must preserve their gold or even add to it� so suggestions of plodding rescue policies are less credible from the standpoint of greedy bankers.

And the gold-selling central banks ARE desperate for a rescue. Herein lies an important gold market, code-breaking clue. The G-10 central banks can't afford to hammer gold down against a well-established primary market, physical trend. The master trader, Jim Sinclair, at the New Orleans conference went well out of his way in his numerous, voice-hoarsening round table discussions to emphasis that fact. "No government can succeed fighting a primary market trend". Many have tried, none have won.

Will they bump it down a few bucks? Sure, but only to dampen the conspicuous vertical spikes before they get out of hand.

The trading pattern shows huge commercial short positions. Should that be a concern? The big comms won't lose any money on those positions because the .gov suits will extend their Treasury gold loan delivery dates until infinity. There likely won't be a traditional short-covering rally because of that hidden bailout. Gold-bugs shouldn't be concerned with the com shorts. It's a bluff by central banks bleeding gold.

Sumitomo and Mitsubishi are always 100% short, 100% of the time on the TOCOM [Where Japanese transparency reports the actual positions]. Why would those trading houses always assume a 100% short position? An official entity [BOJ] has a deal with them. They go short--BOJ pays any losses with yen paper [During up-trends this sometimes means that the BOJ actually buys or uses their own gold to deliver against those shorts too!]. It's that pesky government intervention thingy at work again.

This gold desperation also helps to explain why the .gov straw men are so frantic to restart the stock markets so as to lure investors away from gold and back into paper assets.

The policy that gets the deval pain out of the way the fastest is the one that also conserves the most remaining central bank gold. As the world recognizes and jumps on the upward gold trend, there will come a day soon when some really big players will vacuum all the available cheap gold in an afternoon. The government does not want that to happen! A slow grinding devaluation just guarantees more gold bullion losses at the banks ending inevitably with a rush of panic buying, while a swift, policy-driven Fed and G-10 devaluation move will preserve their remaining gold. Remember that the Japanese elders with $600 Billion in fungible savings can denude the G-10 of all of its vault gold if only 10% of them make a move to kilo bars.

THAT represents a big gun to the central banks head�better to disarm them quickly by devaluing they yen and dollar all-at-once.

BTW the debt ceiling is now on the floor...another ominous event if you are not already in gold [This, from Don Linley].

Trojan

(01/12/2003; 10:58:09 MDT - Msg ID: 94205)

For Misetich

Misetich

You said :

It is interesting that Gross has a chart on the 'strong US $ policy' that starts in 1995 - coincentally when gold prices in $ started their descend -

Have you read Frank Smith's EXCELLENT Editorial called "The Gold Cap Disembowelment Of America" published August 7, 2002. ?

If NOT I suggest you read it. I found this editorial to be one of the most incredible Expose on the Real Story IMHO of the Great Destruction caused by the named parties in the article.

I challenge EVERYONE reading this Post to take the 15 minutes or so it will take to read the Editorial by Frank Smith in Full and then share your Opinions here on this Great Discussion Forum.

If there ever was a better saying then the "Truth Will Set You Free" then I don't know what it is.

Here is the Link to the Whole Article.
Enjoy reading it and let's Discuss It.

Thanks...

A Snippet:

GREENSPAN'S GOLD CAP CRIME WAVE BURNED AMERICA

If the private Federal Reserve Bank and the United States Treasury set out to deliberately and criminally, slowly destroy General Motors; they could not have found a more devious and effective method than the gold cap.

If the private Federal Reserve Bank and the United States Treasury set out to deliberately and criminally destroy corporate America and the economic system of the United States; they could not have found a more devious and effective method than the gold cap.

If the private Federal Reserve Bank and the United States Treasury set out to deliberately and criminally transfer the financial assets of the American people to the politically elite, they could not have found a more devious and effective method than the gold cap.

If the private Federal Reserve Bank and the United States Treasury set out to deliberately and criminally destroy the free markets and the Constitutional political system of the United States, they could not have found a more devious and effective method than the gold cap.

If the private Famine Reserve Bank and the United states Treasury set out to deliberately and criminally starve to death millions of human beings from Argentina to Zambia, and around the globe, they could not have found a more devious and effective method than the gold cap. We have defeated ourselves.

The Whole Link:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/smithf080702.html

sector

(01/12/2003; 11:10:40 MDT - Msg ID: 94206)

@ Henri On Turkey's move to "Protect" Iraqi Oil and therefore Muslim Stewardship

A very thoughtful post...but the US won't get to fuel their SUVs and 500 HP, four-wheel motorcycles...unless Tommy Franks takes the Southern oil fields [Including Basra].

Thus, Bagdhad might end up as a huge Gaza "Circle".

I don't think the Bushies are too cheery about Turkey's ambitions.

(01/12/2003; 11:21:55 MDT - Msg ID: 94207)

Tacitus & All: Schizophrenia at the Fed -- The Case for Gold Ownership

http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021219/default.htmOn 12/19/02 Alan Greenspan began a speech at the Economic Club of New York as follows:

"Although the gold standard could hardly be portrayed as having produced a period of price tranquility, it was the case that the price level in 1929 was not much different, on net, from what it had been in 1800. But, in the two decades following the abandonment of the gold standard in 1933, the consumer price index in the United States nearly doubled. And, in the four decades after that, prices quintupled. Monetary policy, unleashed from the constraint of domestic gold convertibility, had allowed a persistent overissuance of money. As recently as a decade ago, central bankers, having witnessed more than a half-century of chronic inflation, appeared to confirm that a fiat currency was inherently subject to excess. But the adverse consequences of excessive money growth for financial stability and economic performance provoked a backlash. Central banks were finally pressed to rein in overissuance of money even at the cost of considerable temporary economic disruption."

In mid-November, Greenspan stated:

"There's virtually no meaningful limit to what we could inject into the system were that necessary."

Not more than one week later, Fed Governor Ben Bernanke stateed:

"[T]he U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services." He went on to say that, "If we do fall into deflation,
however, we can take comfort that the logic of the printing press example must assert itself, and sufficient injections of money will ultimately always reverse a deflation".

I do not believe that the Bernanke statment was loose-cannon. I think he knew precisely what he was saying, and with Greenspan's approval.

Let's take a closer look at this:

1. Greenspan points to the gold standard years as a time of price stability. (In the past he has admitted to being afflicted with "the central banker's nostalgia for gold. . .")

2. He goes directly from there to tell us essentially that central bankers have learned their lesson and will never make the mistakes central bankers have made repeatedly in this century by indulging in excessive money creation.

3. This statment comes less than one month after he and a close associate conjure up images of the high-speed printing press. These watershed policy statements send bonds and equities into a tailspin and the gold market spiking northward.

4. The money supply graphs take on the appearance of a rocket launch.

Which is the real Greenspan, and which is the real policy? I don't think there's any doubt about which is the real policy: It is to print money. The proof is in the numbers: the proliferation of government debt, monetized debt, trade deficits, ballooning money supply, etc. It seems there are two Greenspans: Professor Greenspan who knows what's the right thing to do. (The nostalgic Greenspan) Fed Chairman Greenspan who does what he must to survive politically, or worse what the Keynesian system dictates. (The hard, pragmatist Greenspan). The war within is always won by "hard, pragmatist" because it's his job. At the same time the nostalgic Greenspan -- the romantic Randian hero -- sufaces occasionally because that is what he would like to be. And some think that passion cannot inhabit the septuagenarian mind. . . . . .Think again.

The schizophrenia at the Fed is something we will all subject to our own interpretation, but I think we can safely say that the Bernanke/Greenspan sentiment as expressed in November is the one to be taken into account by investors. In fact, since those watershed policy speeches, the markets have already passed judgement.

I cover this and great many other side-slips and eddies in the financial markets in this month's News & Views now on its way to the printer. We make this newsletter available to our clientele only (defined as those who have made purchases from USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals). We also send a copy one-time to prospective clients who ask for an information packet (go to the Info Packet link at the top of the page).

- - - - - - - -

I'm sorry, Tacitus, but I'm not familiar with John Bogle's work and I do not work on overall portfolio planning. Overall, I believe that the best strategy for the times is to keep it simple. Stocks by and large are way over-valued and just in the beginning stages of a primary bear market. Bonds are threatened by inflation, over-issue, the potential for rising rates and even default. Read Greenspan on the Bubble at the link above. Safety and asset preservation will be the watch words for some time to come. It's not how much you are going to make, but how much you can preserve. I'll let you take it from there using your own powers of deductive logic. There is no such thing as an overall portfolio theory that can be applied universally to all people at all times. Portfolio planning is an intensely personal experience and it must be done in concert with "your" goals and aspirations -- "your" philosophy -- not someone else's. . . . . .The problem is that very few have an actual portfolio plan but a list of stocks peddled to them by one of the brokerages. . . . Those who come to gold usually do so with a bit of humility -- having been buffetted by the wars. A clear understanding of gold portfolio role usually also spawns a better understanding of the markets in general, as many around this Table would probably testify. And from there comes a "real" personal investment plan independent of the modern brokerage houses . . . . .Good luck in your quest for the Holy Grail. . .

Tacitus

(01/12/2003; 11:38:01 MDT - Msg ID: 94208)

Diversification

Dear MK,

Thanks for your imput. You make some great points. How I am to integrate that with my present philosophy of investment is the question. Appreciate the response.

Salve,
Tacitus

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/12/2003; 12:01:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94209)

175 pages... in bookstores for $14.95. Buy directly for only $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

ABCs of Gold by MK "Without waxing philosophical, a few words are helpful concerning the mind-set with which you pursue your interest in gold ownership. Some enter the gold market to make a profit, others to hedge disaster, some to accomplish both. No matter into which category you fit, make sure you understand why you are going into the gold market. Convey that understanding to the individual with whom you are structuring your gold portfolio. The whys have quite a bit to do with what you end up owning.

"Frequently investors will say that any kind of gold will do because after all gold is gold, isn't it? This type of attitude has helped a great many coin shop owners unload unwanted inventory they hadn't been able to get rid of for years. This is probably a good deal for the coin dealer, but it could spell disaster for you. In the same vein, I have talked to hundreds, probably thousands, of investors in nearly a quarter century in the business. Quite often, potential investors have no more reason for buying gold than 'everybody else is doing it.'

"In Chapter 16 on portfolio planning, you will find some details on this important subject. For now, consider the inscription over the entrance to the temple of the ancient Delphic Oracle: 'Know Thyself.' Study. Read. Learn what's going on around you. Call a few gold firms and ask questions. There's nothing like conversation to stimulate thinking. Take time to lay a little groundwork. Then make your move. The political and economic situation being what it is, there is no better time to start than now. Know thyself -- your goals and needs -- and you will be a more confident, happier gold investor." (more)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

erayboy

(01/12/2003; 12:11:54 MDT - Msg ID: 94210)

Zoran's EW Update - Wave 3 DOWN - Maybe This Week

http://csf.colorado.edu/forums/longwaves/2003/pdf00001.pdfThe SP500 may complete the current action and head south ... forcefully ... perhaps as soon as a few days.

And, we have a Full Moon on Saturday. Buckle up ...

slingshot

(01/12/2003; 12:15:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94211)

Trojan

Msg#94205After reading the article.

What started as Calm Advise will soon turn to Frantic Warnings. If the truth is so bizarre who will believe you.
Bizarre as to, They would never do that.

When in Danger. When in Doubt. Run in Circles. Scream and Shout. (New World Order Advise)
Slingshot---------------<>

Christian

(01/12/2003; 12:18:16 MDT - Msg ID: 94212)

DAS KAPITAL- - - Bankers Manifesto

"Capital must protect itself inevery way through combination and through legislation. Debts must be collected and loans and mortgages foreclosed as soon as possible. When through a process of law the common people have lost their homes, they will be more tractable and more easily governed by the strong arm of the law, applied by the central power of wealth, under control of leading financiers. People without homes will not quarrel with their leaders. This is well known among our principle men now engaged in forming an imperialism of capital to govern the world. By dividing the people we can get them to expend their energies in fighting over questions ofno importance to us except as teachers of the common herd. Thus by discreet action we can secure for ourselves what has been generally planned and successfully accomplished." -- All made possible by credit creation gold using the banking reserve process. It was Roosevelt who gave the government of the United States over to the invisible government. Money is power, and by getting the money (gold conviscation) the invisible government got the poweer to creat credit out of credit creation gold using the reserve banking process. Gold conviscation will happen again because Capital (Kapital) must protect itself. There is a reason why COMEX trades are mostly paper gold nothings. GOFRA= gold forward rate agreement, used as a hedging instrument by metal producers and BANKSTERS makes possible the off balance sheet accounting by restricting payment of gold debt (principal and interest) be paid in gold only.

TownCrier

(01/12/2003; 12:52:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94213)

PH in LA, China's new physical market

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlThis should help you regarding your questions to Belgium, "Are there actually plans for a physical-only market on the books at this time? ... Can you point us at anybody else talking about such a thing?" and etc...

At the above link you will find these entries:

7 October, 2002 - 11 October, 2002
The tax issues that have delayed the opening of the Shanghai Gold Exchange are expected to be resolved this month, allowing formal trade to begin, marking a major step in the liberalisation of the Chinese precious metals market.

14 October, 2002 - 18 October, 2002
Official sources have confirmed that the Shanghai Gold Exchange will open for trading on 30th October, following clarification of the VAT rules on gold trading. The Exchange opened on Wednesday for an initial trial period and the first trade to be logged was a 3kg purchase by the Beijing Caishikou Department Store.

21 October, 2002 - 25 October, 2002
Physical gold trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is due to launch on Wednesday [Oct 30]. For the time being membership remains limited to 108 domestic entities of which 56% are end-users and 12% are banks and other financial institutions, according to a report from Reuters quoting exchange official Mr. Yin Po. The opening of the exchange will be the first big step on the road to ending more than 50 years of absolute control. Settlement will be in physical metal (the only other exchange to trade solely in physical is that in Istanbul).

Opening the Exchange means that the People's Bank of China will no longer be the sole fixer of the local price, nor the sole purchaser of domestic mine output. Price discovery will fall to the exchange and be likely therefore to run closely in line with international prices and local production will be sold on the exchange.

25 November, 2002 - 29 November, 2002
Friday completed the first month of trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The market turnover has averaged between 300kg and 400kg a day of bars of purity either 99.95% or 99.99%, in a ratio by volume of roughly 3:1, although the volumes in the four nines bars is increasing. This equates to between 66 and 88 tonnes per annum and compares with local mine production of 173t (2001; GFMS estimate). Not all the country's locally mined gold is yet traded through the exchange as it is not all refined in the accepted refineries. The market only trades spot, not forwards or futures.

9 December, 2002 - 13 December, 2002
An official at the Shanghai Gold Exchange has said that, subject to approval by the People's Bank of China, the Exchange may allow trading by individuals as early as next year.

Zhisheng

(01/12/2003; 13:00:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94214)

Sierra Madre's Sunday Reflections (94198)

The thesis is that Central Banks will move away from dollar denominated assets so that they may be less subject to actions of the US Federal Reserve, which System technically pretty much controls the path of the dollar.

This seems to rely on the hypothesis that Central Banks truly represent national interest, which may or may not be the case. Recent sales of gold reserves by Central Banks at low prices certainly do not seem to be in their respective national interests.

It may be that Central Banks are more subject to the will of financial powers whose interests are more international in scope than national. In that case, a turning away from the dollar would perhaps occur at the connivance of the Fed (or rather the powers to whose influence it is subject, in common with other Central Banks).

In either case however, if we can rely on recent remarks by Greenspan and Bernanke, the dollar looks now to become weaker, and gold stronger.

Trojan

(01/12/2003; 14:02:28 MDT - Msg ID: 94215)

Slingshot and other thoughts...

Slingshot: Thank you for reading the Article.

I agree that it seems "They Would Never Do That" logic BUT I really think that THIS TIME we have WORLD HISTORY in the making.

Christian: Have you read the Article ? It seems to go along with your thinking.

Now back to my WORLD HISTORY Point.

Many World Events are NOW all coming together.

Some Main Points:

(1) About 1913 I think, the Federal Reserve gets Control of the MONEY Supply. (It is created)

(2) The Wars START (WW1 WW2 Etc)

(3) The GREAT (IMHO) JFK figures it out. He actually had a Executive Order ready to disolve the FED.

(4) The Private FED is NOT Legal according to the USA Constitution.

(4) JFK is Murdered. (1963)

(5) Nixon Unties Gold Standard Re: $35 Price. (1971)

(6) Jimmy Carter Elected (1976) Iran Hostage Crisis, Interest Rates over 20 %

(7) Ronald Reagan Elected (1980 To 1988) The Cold War ends and NOW with Russia NO LONGER a Force to Counterbalance The USA, the FORCES OF REAL EVIL as compared to the Axis Of Evil start their END Game.

(8) This STARTS with the Election Of Bush SR in 1988.

(9) In comes the BOYS, Rumsfield, Cheney and the Others who are the Close Associates of Bush Sr.

(10) Bush Sr Attacks Iraq. (1991) (This starts the Terrorists going. (Bin Laden and others)

(11) Clinton is Elected (1992-2000) It was the ECONOMY Stupid.

(12) Greenspan is running the show now with No Controls on him. Greenspan has ALL the Tools he needs including The Monetary Control Act Of 1980 which allows the FED to buy Stocks.

(13) As Frank Smith's article points out The Plan Re: Gold suppression starts in 1995.

A pause here now in my Main Points, to summarize what I think is occuring. I'll tie up all my points in the end of this post but first I want to make a point about Clinton. Clinton bought into Greenspan's Gold Plan with Rubin and the Strong US Dollar Policy. Clinton was IMO not Evil but Sleazy. He wanted Fame, Fortune and Good Hummers :-) However whatever he wanted played into the Real Plan that was HATCHING.
Now ON TO 2000. A NEW MILLENEUM. A NEW HISTORY. A NEW WORLD ORDER. Here is how it STARTS to ALL Tie together.

(14) Bush JR is Elected (2000) We ALL know how that went. 5 Weeks to Decide who Won. Finally the Supremes decide. (That's NOT Diana Ross and the Supremes.)

(15) GUESS WHAT... They Are Back BUT NOW WITH INCREDIBLE WEALTH AND POWER. Who are They ? Think about it. Rumsfield, Cheney and the Others. (BUt NO Russia to Block them) (No Gold Rising To Block them)
(Don't forget Greenie)

(16) Here comes Bin Laden (2001) Remember my Point about Iraq, Bush Sr and Terrorism. ( Point 10)

(17) Wait Bin Who ? NAH forget him. It's Saddam, Stupid. Here we Go. Bush Wants War. Rumsfield Wants War. Cheney wants War. Some for different reasons.
Bush Jr "Saddam tried to Kil my Daddy you know"

(18) The USA Economy is a Disaster. Pension Funds Not Funded by Corporations. Fraud Accounting in Government and Corporate America. The USA Manufacturing Base Destroyed. USA Consummer Debt Astronomical. USA Government Debt Astronomical. Derivatives in the Trillions ready to Explode. The Stock Market Crash is NOT Over. The Real Estate Crash has NOT even Started. The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Game will BLOW UP. The USA is DEPEPENDENT on the WORLD to Fund Them. The WORLD has Changed. The WORLD Does NOT Love the USA Anymore.

OK, Time for my Summary. Most of what I have pointed out so far is Fact. Just the Facts, Maam, Just the Facts. (Joe Friday) :-)

Here is WHY I say WORLD HISTORY is *About to Change.
*About could take up to 5 Years or more to Play Out.

I believe in God. If there is NO GOD, What's the Point. Let's not get into Religion BUT I wanted to make that point RE: Justice in the Final Analysis.

We all Know what Happened to the Roman Empire and ALL the other Empires.

Since we are leaving God out of this let's instead call Gold our God. (For purposes of making my point)

In the End GOLD has Always Proven to be the ONLY true Store of Value. So it will this time.

When the War Starts and it Will. When the Real Actionable War Anger, Starts against the USA, The USA Stock Market WILL CRASH. THe USA Dollar Will Crash. The Economy will CRASH. The World according to the USA will change and so will WORLD HISTORY.

No NOT Through Armies and the BOMB.

Gold Will Win. The World is different now. The Internet STOPS Censorship. To the People who Need to Know. The Arabs Know. The Muslims Know. The Japanese Know. The Chinese Know. Any Real ENEMY of the USA knows.

What do they know ?

How to Win the WAR.

Through Gold. The Gold Dinar. The Oil Dinar. Gold Itself. No USA Dollar Controlling the World.

Then you Will have WORLD HISTORY.

I am a Canadian Citizen BUT do NOT Despair Great USA Brothers and Sisters.

The Fed will be DISMANTLED. The FRAUDS will End.
A New President will appear to lead the USA on the way back to the Great Nation it once was.

There will be WORLD HISTORY made. I don't know it's next Form but it will HAPPEN.

History itself SAYS it will.

That's the way I see it.

Agree or Disagree ?

ElGordo

(01/12/2003; 14:24:11 MDT - Msg ID: 94216)

Too little too late

OPEC members agreed Sunday to boost the cartel's oil production target by 6.5 percent to cover a shortfall in crude exports from Venezuela.

The increase of 1.5 million barrels a day would take effect on Feb. 1, OPEC President Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah told a news conference.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced the increase in the hope of calming fears of a supply crunch caused by an ongoing strike in Venezuela. The strike, launched Dec. 2 by political opponents seeking to oust President Hugo Chavez, has slashed the country's exports by about 2 million barrels a day. Venezuela, a major supplier to the United States, is normally the world's fifth-largest oil producer and the third largest in OPEC.
_______
Not enough if Venezuela stays out

ElGordo

(01/12/2003; 14:31:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94217)

USA Today article

Tough times good for gold
Most investments fell in 2002; tangible assets soared

By SANDRA BLOCK
USA Today
01/12/2003

When the going gets tough, gold gets going.

In 2002, a year when nearly every other type of investment tanked, gold funds rose an average 62.9 percent. The year's boisterous performance boosted average five-year returns to 52.2 percent, vs. a decline of 1 percent for the average stock fund.

Several events conspired to make 2002 a great year for gold. Among them:

� Fear. Gold does well during periods of uncertainty. Nervous investors lose faith in paper currency, which is only as good as the government behind it, and stash their money in tangible assets, such as gold. A potential war with Iraq, nuclear warnings from North Korea and continued threats of terrorism made gold a popular haven in 2002.

� A weakened dollar. The falling stock market, sluggish economy and rising oil prices depressed the value of the U.S. dollar in 2002. Gold typically rises when the U.S. dollar weakens, says Mark Johnson, manager of USAA Precious Metals and Minerals Fund.

� Low prices. Gold is trading for about $350 an ounce, up 25 percent from a year ago. But gold prices are still down from 1996, when gold traded for up to $400, says Caesar Bryan, manager of Gabelli Gold Fund. In the 1990s, gold went through a "dreadful bear market," Bryan says. "The last year and a half was really a bounce off a pretty depressed low."

Gold fund managers say the factors that made their funds shine in 2002 haven't changed. War with Iraq still looms. A larger federal budget deficit could further weaken the dollar.

"We've got a good chance of making more money in 2003, largely because of what's happening with the dollar," Johnson says.

Moreover, stocks of gold-mining companies, a staple of gold fund portfolios, are still relatively cheap compared with the price of gold, says Bryan.

Even gold fund managers say gold funds should account for just a small portion of your portfolio - typically no more than 5 percent. One reason: Gold tends to move in the opposite direction of the stock market.

That makes gold funds a good hedge against stock-market downturns. But if the market recovers, your gold fund could lose its luster in a hurry.

misetich

(01/12/2003; 14:34:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94218)

THE 'GOLD CAP' DISEMBOWELMENT OF AMERICA

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/smithf080702.htmlTrojan - thanks for the link

The US has enjoyed tremendous advantages through the strong US $ "policy" - by sucking up most of the world investments - however as Rubin stated a two years or so ago in an interview - "we are in uncharted territory" as the bubble burst -

The financial system is in the middle of the " Perfect Financial Storm " - those in the know - have/are positioning themselves to protect themselves - through the accumulation of GOLD

Who has/is accumulating this 16,000 tons of Central Banks leased -( which in turn has been sold by speculators, bullion banks and through hedging programs by miners )- gold

Lets FOLLOW THE MONEY! real money - GOLD

Here's an extract by Richard Russell's January 10, 2003 issue -Dow Theory- on gold

Quote

The reason, gold is the only money that has held its value over the course of history. Gold represents permanent wealth. This has occurred in the face of the fact that every paper currency in history has ultimately sunk to worthlessness.
.........

Get used to it -- there's a huge contingent who have a vested interest in gold going nowhere. They possess loud voices, but they're losers. They're losers because they're on the wrong side of the truth.

..........
End of quote

http://www.dowtheoryletters.com/dtlol.nsf

Got gold?

Kagalaska

(01/12/2003; 14:37:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94219)

The winds of change are blowing.

Trojan- Well put together post(#94215).I agree, but, with this thought I believe the time line(5 or more years) will
not be that long 2-3 at most.

If there must be trouble let it be in my day,that my child may have peace.- Thomas Paine 1737-1809

ElGordo

(01/12/2003; 14:45:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94220)

The icy wind of the coming storm

London, Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Nauman Barakat, head of the oil trading desk at Fimat International Banque SA in London, comments on a decision by OPEC to raise output quotas by 1.5 million barrels a day to replace shortages left by a strike in Venezuela.

``Assuming we lost about 2 million barrels a day from Venezuela as a result of the strike and assuming that OPEC produces an extra 1.5 million barrels, which is in itself a big stretch, it still means we have a shortfall of 500,000 barrels. The market will remain very tight.''

``The market is going to look at this tomorrow and its reaction will be that this agreement, as far as putting an extra 1.5 million barrels, is not really credible. It includes a pro rata increase for Venezuela, which clearly can't produce anything more than what they're producing now, and a lot of other countries'' are already producing at capacity.

``I would be surprised if the real barrels into the market would be anything more than 1 million barrels. That gives us 1 million barrels less than before the Venezuelan strike. Then if you add Iraq on top of it, assuming that the U.S. does attack Iraq and the Venezuelan strike is still on at that point, OPEC is in dire straits.''
________________
OPEC is in the drivers seat- WE- the world-are in dire straits.
If Venezuela stays in chaos, this could be the beginning of that
infamous storm.

Belgian

(01/12/2003; 15:14:14 MDT - Msg ID: 94221)

@ PH in LA # 94192 - Questions

Physical Only Gold Market in euro :I have been asking this question to many authorities (politicians and central bankers) : Absolute silence AND NOT ONE SINGLE REPLY of any kind ! Since I'm not an authority and have no inside knowledge...I can't give you any "concrete" answers.

This "absolute" silence is one of my major "indications" strengthening the growing pile of other indications.
Euroland, at present, is working hard (Dehaene and Giscard d'Estaing and an Italian) on more political convergence and a constitution.

Top national central bankers + ECB + BIS are locked into a complete isolated ivory tower. No way to have a look at the inside from outside the bunker (blockhouse).

Therefore, most of our indications are derived from intelligent thinking and close observation of political maneuvering.
It is A/FOA who have been studying this market thoroughly and its history as well. Their cryptic language is hiding much more than our comprehension goes.

As Eurolanders, we all had US$-bonds in portfolio. As individuals we acted as CBs and took the dollar-exchange-reserve as the mother of all derivatives in our financial planning. Euroland had to foresee an escape-route for getting rid of all those paper-dollar-assets for its citizens and CB-dollar-reserves.

It is impossible to arrange for a total (all at once) stampede out of those dollar-assets into euro and Gold.
This gives us an indication that the timing of the physical-only market is not a sinecure (easy job). How can one possibly answer how far away, this physical only market is ?

Even ordinarry euro-bankers do not understand why the ECB is is calculating the open Gold value, quarter by quarter.
Are you going to tell them that the ECB/BIS is planning to destroy the dollar-paper-goldcontract market (LBMA) ?
Listen very carefully to Duisenberg when he answers questions and guess the direction of his euro-"intentions".

The euro-builders want to postpone the "parabolic collapse" of the dollar as to make it happen at the most convenient moment. In the mean time, more destructive weight is added to the dollar-paper-gold-contract-market. The hangman's rope ! "OUR" euro and Euroland's "WEALTH"...brand new terminology towards the public.

Some financial media, still unaware of the euro-concept, are questioning Gold's recent moves with an air of suspicion. Please do not forget Sir that the process of "infantilization" of the general public is in its high days and increasing in Euroland as it is in the USA. And I am part of that public without any privileges and consequently without concrete answers for myself.

We all are restricted to indications alone and finetuning of their interpretations.

What will central banks do with their dollar-exhange-reserves, when BernankeSpan, command the dollar-printing presses ? All this globe's currencies are backed by CB-dollar-exchange-reserves. Al CBs have some Gold-Wealth left as a tangible exchange reserve next to the growing stashes of dollar-paper. But it is only the ECB that is quarterly valuing her Gold-reserves and at the same time the other Gold-exchange reserves that remained in the national banks of EMU-members! This is no secret. And every bank in Euroland sells Physical Gold for euro to its clients.
Those same banks stopped selling (completely) physical silver and platinum.

Another strong indication is that those same banks had a certain period (1990-1995) where they encouraged to take (buy) Gold-Certificates instead of the classic Physical insurance. In this same period the a VAT was imposed on physical sales and was immidiately withdrown ! In other words, CBs got directives from their CBs to encourage paper Gold-certificates to avoid the VAT on the physical and later on the Physical Gold trade was encouraged again with the withdrawel of the VAT on it !

Euroland already had a physical-only market in mind. Euroland wants to get rid or compensate for "all" dollar currency-paper. That was an early indication in a time when I was still green behind my ears about the eventual growing concept.

Those early paper Gold-certificates (1990) were an indication that the ECU ( euro-later ) wanted to "inflate" the paper-gold-contract market as when full force with the infamous Gold-sales and following WA (re-distributions).

The euro-gold-concept is already an old plan. I'm a bit late in having discovered it thanks to CPM / FOA, here. But have been digging in my memory to recapitulate and "understand" all memorized Gold history.

Maybe it is because other countries (China/Russia/ME) are a bit late in copying the euro-concept, that this physical-only market isn't yet operational. Who knows what other reasons there might be for eventual delays ?

Why do you think the US (FED) succeeded in pulling away some Gold-exchange-reserves from a particular set of countries ? Now these poor states are in the incapacity of playing the euro-gold-concept and have to stick to their dollar-exchange-reserves valued by the printer of those dollars, the US of A. Quite some formidable indication here.

Why were (!!!) the major anglo-saxon goldminers so eager to sell forward underground gold ! Forget about their economical explanations ! They knew WHY and only some very specific entities co-operated for not so obvious reasons.

Yes PH in LA, a gigantic jigsaw...far from being completed with a very visible picture. Patience dear fellow Goldmeister...it will surely come ! Think hard and deep and don't get fooled because we don't have black on white evidence.

Galerider

(01/12/2003; 15:53:54 MDT - Msg ID: 94222)

THE JAPANESE SOLUTION

Here we go again. March is coming around again when all the comapnies call in their profits from around the world and "balance the books". Will the Japanese financial gurus make the banks account for bad loans? Will 2003 likely be the year that the government gets Japan's financial house in order? Don't think so. Latest proposal by the Liberal Democratic party? Raise the consumption tax. Squeeze Joe and Jane Nippon some more with some more taxes. It will put trillions of yen into the government coffers they say. So they can spend some more money bailing out zombie comanies that are already dead financially and sponsor building of corporate highrises that won't rent space in an already tight real estate market, build roads that go to nowhere, and build toll roads that are so expensive you can travel for about twenty minutes on it before you see another car coming in the opposite direction. What a joke we are becoming. Things are getting bad. Added to my modest gold pile in anticipation of being tossed on the NIPPON bonepile!

Belgian

(01/12/2003; 15:56:52 MDT - Msg ID: 94223)

The US-dollar > The Globe's reserve - currency !

All currencies in the world are backed by the US$-exchange-reserves in their respective National Banks. Strong or weak currencies have much to do with the management of their dollar-reseves. Part of what is to be understood under monetary-policy. Quite normal in normal times. BUT...

It is the USA-dollar-printer that is now ruling on the value-exchange-rate of all those world CB-dollar-reserves.
The USA says what your dollar-reserves are worth and is consequently dictating the exchange rate of all those currencies. All currencies have become *dollar-derivatives*.
All currencies lost the major part of their autonomy !

Next to the globe's CB-dollar-reserves, there is some Gold-exchange-reserve in the vault of their National Banks.
This Gold is valued by the LBMA paper-contract monster.
Independant States lost valuation-autonomy on their Gold-exchange reserves. That's why many preferred to add dollar-confetti to their reserves, rather than Gold as a reserve.

But now we see that China, Russia, openly publicize that they are adding Gold to their reserves. No statistics about the ME-states for very obvious reasons of course ! India is as evident as can be on the whole Gold-matter and already have their physical-only market for ages !

Now there is that euro-currency that is ***suddenly*** marking its Gold-reserves to market ! No more Gold book-keeping at out of date "fixed" prices for Gold. This behind a terrible smoke-screen of "controlled" Gold-sales in complete UN-transparancy ! And suddenly the former secretive "LBMA" goes right into the public light !

Nobody is connecting all these dots, except our Mentors !
Everybody remains embedded in the "commodity" matrix of Gold and refuses to look at CB-Gold as a wealth-asset. With the exception of Gold-Giants (oil and other) who know the dollar through and through.

China, at present positioning itself as the fifth biggest power, just behind France, opens its market for physical Gold trade. Shangai and Dubai go the India-way. Euro architects travel discretely on euro-concept, counselling !

All those existing dollars (reserves and other) can't rush into Gold ALL AT ONCE ! It is the building and existance of the paper-Gold-market that is concepted for Gold-Substitution. But this Physical Gold-Breaker has a timeline as we all, unfortunately, have. The announcement that paper-gold has reached its end is evidenced by the sudden and inexplicable going public of the LBMA. The Rotshields lost their privilege of arbitting oil and gold trade ! The ECB/BIS, euro-builders, took over ! *Halt* to the almighty financial brotherhood. Don't call any Rotshield for confirmation on this (smile).

The "Haute Finance" doesn't talk to politicians !

Christian

(01/12/2003; 16:19:49 MDT - Msg ID: 94224)

Physical Free Gold Market Within The Euro>

> will never happen. It will never happen here either. Gold is not an acceptible form of payment. But it will be an acceptible way for savings (storehouse for labor). There are a few banks here, but many more in Europe, who accept gold as savings, and the interest and principal is paid in gold when withdrawn. (Read the GOFRA terms) Banks can and it is legal to use that gold that was deposited just like money is in a savings account to loan it out to themselves and use the deposit to make reserve banking loans. The whole idea is to get people to produce wealth in their economic endeavors, and trade that wealth for worthless paper. The credit creation reserve banking conspiracy is really a cons-PIRACY to get you wealth (work) exchanged for worthless non-redeemable notes.

goldenboy

(01/12/2003; 16:26:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94225)

Belgian: What exactly do you mean by the LBMA has gone

public?

trickyt

(01/12/2003; 16:52:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94226)

US Debt rises from $58 to $24'630 per person, gold $58 to $ 350

US Govt Debt per ounce of gold is 420 times the 1939 figure of $58 of debt for every ounce. Today the figure , $24'630 per ounce.

At the same time the price of gold has risen from $34.42 to $350.50 What would you rather have? The debt or the gold?

Some facts:
US Government Debt 2003: $6,382,650,489,675. (6 trillion)
US Government Gold Reserves 2003: 262 million ounces.
Debt per ounce of gold reserves: $24'630

US Government Debt 1948: $40,439,532,411. (40 billion)
US Government Gold Reserves 1948: 697 million ounces.
Debt per ounce of Gold: $361

In 1939, the year the US Governement made gold illegal for US citizens to buy gold, the debt per ouce of gold reserves was $58. (the debt was then $40 billion, but ballooned due to the war effort). After Gold became illegal US citizens were effectively forced to take debt.

So, in the last 63 years the debt per ounce of gold has risen from $58 to $24'630.

At the same time the price of gold has risen from $34.42 to $351.50. What would you rather have? The debt or the gold? I know which I will take.....

TownCrier

(01/12/2003; 16:53:53 MDT - Msg ID: 94227)

goldenboy -- the meaning of the LBMA going public

I'm just now tuning in again after a break and haven't yet read Belgian's comments to which you refer. However, given the nature of the thing, any mention of the LBMA "going public" can almost certainly refer to only one thing:

It was the decision that, beginning in January 1997, the LBMA first started releasing its clearing statistics for public consumption -- the shear volume of which boggled many minds in and out of the industry. (1,000 tonnes gold/day)

Randy

TownCrier

(01/12/2003; 17:20:40 MDT - Msg ID: 94228)

Maybe this version is structured more clearly

In January 1997 the LBMA first started releasing for public consumption its gold clearing statistics.

R.

(01/12/2003; 17:34:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94229)

HOW U.S. CAN INCREASE ITS GOLD RESERVES

HOW U.S. CAN INCREASE ITS GOLD RESERVES

Reference:

Belgian (1/3/03; 06:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 93304)

@ Ax : The US buying Gold ???

Belgian, you write:

*WHO* is going to sell *WICH* Gold to the US-treasury...for more US$
???
3,000 tonnes of underground gold have already been sold forward.
Paper-gold-claims exeeding 15,000 tonnes are standing out.
Euroland's
Gold-reserves are NOT for sale against dollars to be added to the
already obsolete, massive, dollar-exchange-reserves. China, Russia
are
mining the Gold for themselves and South Africa, Canada, Australia
can
only sell Gold, profitable, as long as their currencies keep on
declining against the dollar.

AX: I DON'T DISAGREE WITH MUCH OF WHAT YOU SAY BUT
WE KNOW FOR INSTANCE THAT SWITZERLAND,
LOCATED IN THE HEART OF EUROPE, IS SELLING A%OF
THEIR CENTRAL RESERVE BANK GOLD.

WHY COULDN'T THE U.S. TREASURY BUY THIS GOLD?

( NOT TO MENTION THE GOLD PRODUCED BY THE
MINES LOCATED WITHIN THE U.S. REGARDLESS OF
OWNERSHIP, GOLD FROM GOLD BULLION DEALERS
WITHIN THE U.S. AND FROM ANYONE OR ANY
ENTITY WHICH WISHED TO SELL - LIKE ALL THOSE
COMMERCIALS ON THE COMEX WHO ARE SUPPOSED
TO BE SHORT GOLD - WHY NOT BUY FROM THEM? )

I FRANKLY DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHAT ALL THIS
PROBLEM IS FOR THE U.S. TREASURY TO BUY GOLD
JUST LIKE CHINA IS DOING FOR HER CENTRAL BANK.

Belgian you write:

Any "Gold-buy" by the US would make its dollar *WEAKER* in Gold
(POG-rise=more dollars per ounce). And you certainly know what will
happen (is happening) when the dollar goes down !
THE GOLD BALL IS NOT IN THE DOLLAR CAMP...anymore !
The US has been losing the bulk of its Goldreserves up to 1971
(28,000 tonnes > 8,160 tonnes). The dollar went for the oil and is doing the
same thing today in a last gigantic effort to have its reserve-currency
backed with a portion of real wealth (confiscated ME-SA-oil).

AX: AGAIN, A LOT OF TRUTH HERE BUT : HOW DOES THAT
PRECLUDE THE U.S FROM REPLACING ITS TREASURY
GOLD RESERVES? THE FACT THAT THE U.S. GOLD
RESERVES DROPPED SO MUCH OVER THE YEARS
IS JUST THAT MUCH MORE REASON FOR THE U.S. TO
WANT TO REPLENISH IT.

ADDING GOLD TO THE U.S. TREASURY WOULD NOT
WEAKEN THE USD. THIS I STRONGLY DISAGREE WITH.

IT MAY ADD TO THE PERCEPTION OF WEAKNESS -
MAKE IT LOOK LIKE IT IS WEAK - BUT IN FACT IT WILL
BE ( THE USD WILL BE ) ON ITS WAY BACK TO GETTING
STRONGER.

WE ARE INTERESTED HERE IN TRUE STRENTH - NOT
THE APPEARANCE OF STRENGTH AS WAS THE
CONCEPT OF FORMER TREASURY SECRETARY
LARRY SUMMERS AS EXPOUNDED IN HIS 1995
HARVARD PAPER.

ESPECIALLY SINCE THE U.S. WOULD WISH TO MAINTAIN
ITS STATUS OF HAVING THE WORLD'S NUMBER ONE
RESERVE CURRENCY. PART OF THE STRENGTH OF THE
EURO IS THAT IT IS SO MUCH BACKED BY GOLD. SO-
WHY CAN'T THE U.S.MARK TO MARKET IS RESERVE
GOLD TONNAGE - ADD TO IT SUBSTANTIALLY - AND
HAVE A MUCH MORE STABLE CURRENCY?

Belgian you write:

A new rumor is launched that the ME wishes Saddam to step down if
the US
should start the attack on Iraq !? The sacrificial lamb theory
(speculation). POO is on its eleventh day out of the 22$-28$ range.
Saudi taps should open after 9 days ? Yes, the *supply* of oil will
never be a problem...only the worthless $-currency that is paid for it !
The great broken promiss. Let's price Gold correctly and open the oil-taps for abundant cheap flow. Non Arabian oil-producers (South American) will re-think the dollar's intrinsic worth, again and again up
until they understand and make Another choice.

AX: YES, MUCH TO AGREE WITH. BUT - YET AND STILL
IT DOES NOT NEGATE THE CONCEPT THAT THE U.S.
TREASURY SHOULD BACK ITS CURRENCY WITH MORE
GOLD.

AS FOR OIL, THERE ARE MANY WAYS FOR THE U.S.
TO ARRANGE FOR MORE IMPORTATION AND DOMESTIC
PRODUCTION OF OIL SHOULD CIRCUMSTANCES
WARRENT IT. REMEMBER, IT WAS JUST A FEW YEARS
AGO THAT THERE WAS A GLUT OF OIL IN THE WORLD,
AS THE PRICE OF OIL WAS TRENDING TOWARD $10/BAR
I REALIZE THAT THE PICTURE HAS CHANGED
SUBSTANTIALLY, BUT - AS THINGS DEVELOP - EVEN
AS YOU YOURSELF ASSIGN MOTIVES FOR A MOVE IN
THE MIDDLE EAST, YOU ARE IN FACT DRAWING A
PICTURE WHEREIN THE U.S. WILL HAVE AS MUCH
OIL AS IT WANTS.

BUT FOR STABILIZING THE ECONOMY AND THE DOLLAR
IT IS BEST TO UTILIZE GOLD AS THE UNIVERSAL AND
HISTORICAL COMMODITY OF CURRENCY REFERENCE.

IN SHORT - THE U.S. TREASURY NEEDS TO BOOST
IT 8K TON RESERVES OF GOLD CLOSER TO THE
VALUES OF 28 K TON TO WHICH YOU REFER FROM
PERIODS OF TIME EARLIER IN THE 20 TH CENTURY.

SINCERELY,

AX

canamami

(01/12/2003; 17:35:15 MDT - Msg ID: 94230)

Question re Lease Rates, Price and Supply

I understood that lease rates go up when supply is tight, usually in the context of a rising market. The 2003 lease rates appear to be low (libor - gofo), yet the price keeps rising. Am I missing something here? Why is the rising price not reflected in higher lease rates, and why does the price keep rising if the supply is plentiful (as reflected in the lease rates)?

Mr Gresham

(01/12/2003; 17:43:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94231)

Euro links

http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/euro.htmlLots of Euro links -- haven't had time to look into...

TownCrier

(01/12/2003; 17:56:35 MDT - Msg ID: 94232)

All's fair in love and banking

Canamami,

It is not my place to say yea or nay here, but don't discount the thought that "lease rates" for gold are not now an unconstrained product of forces in an open market.

R.

mikal

(01/12/2003; 17:57:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94233)

@canamami

Lease rates would go up if gold borrowing/leasing activity increased But if real returns are now negative, the gold carry trade is muted for good reason. Add in the risks- geopolitical, economic or otherwise, and it doesn't add up anymore.

TownCrier

(01/12/2003; 18:01:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94234)

For ax, I would like to know...

How would the U.S. Treasury pay for its gold?

And if the Treasury bought it from Switzerland, as you suggest, where would Switzerland's current gold receiver find fulfillment?

R.

ElGordo

(01/12/2003; 18:26:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94235)

Reality vs happy talk

Tokyo, Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks failed to deliver their traditional January rally in 2002. They may not have one in 2003 either.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average has lost 1.3 percent. Computer- related companies such as Fujitsu Ltd. have dropped amid concern that profit reports from U.S. rivals, including Intel Corp., will show that global spending is slumping. Intel, the world's largest chipmaker, is among U.S. companies releasing results this week.

``Earnings results from major U.S. technology companies aren't going to convince me to buy computer-related stocks,'' said Yasuo Kamaji, who helps manage 300 billion yen ($2.5 billion) in Japanese equities at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. ``A solid recovery won't come for a couple of years.''

Truthcaster

(01/12/2003; 18:36:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94236)

Spot Falling Tonight

Anyone know why gold is falling tonight?
It's down about 2.00$. Maybe it's following
Oil which is down too.

knotakare

(01/12/2003; 18:44:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94237)

Ax, re US Gold Reserves

Ax, I would like to politely say to you that what you propose to do is not possible. If the US tried to start acguiring gold in the quantities you mention, it would probably cause a collapse of the world's financial system.

The fed already has the reposibility to backstop the US dollar and also the US bond and stock markets (through the Economic Stabilization Fund). The FED already is juggling too many balls in the air, to keep liquidity in the US markets, and any sign that they were acquiring gold would cause liquidity to lock up and cause a crash in the world's currency and equity/bond markets.

The fed could also call in their gold loans, but again this would cause an economic calamity. What the Fed and Treasury must now due is look for ways to devalue the dollar, without causing a panic. I think that those that say the FED will allow the price of gold to devalue the dollar, make a lot of sence. But we are facing the so called "storm", and it is anyone's quess how this will all play out.

Due to the destructive "strong dollar policy" carried out by US officials during the past 40 years, I think American citizens should be warned that any financial assets that they own will likely be expropriated by the government through great cunning and trickery. This is how far we have gone down a slippery slope.

And you can forget about getting the dollar slide to stop. This is not going to happen with the current values and government we have in this country.

Get gold and silver coins now, we are in an extreme emergency, and once the nation finds out there will be chaos.

Cavan Man

(01/12/2003; 18:55:14 MDT - Msg ID: 94238)

Gold lease rates

If these rates no longer reflect the supply/demand dynamic in the market, perhaps they have ceased to be useful? Perhaps the futures' markets themselves are next? Can lease rates be meaningless and under what conditions? What are the ramifications then?

Cavan Man

(01/12/2003; 18:58:02 MDT - Msg ID: 94239)

N. Korea

I read where NK hasz suggested they will turn the US into a "sea of fire". I'd comment: poor choice of metaphor. Back to the drawing board.

(01/12/2003; 19:06:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94240)

@ Towncrier/ Knotacre regarding Increase in US Gold Reserves

@ Towncrier/ Knotacre regarding Increase in US Gold Reserves

References:

TownCrier (01/12/03; 18:01:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 94234)
For ax, I would like to know...
How would the U.S. Treasury pay for its gold?
And if the Treasury bought it from Switzerland, as you suggest, where
would Switzerland's current gold receiver find fulfillment?

knotakare (01/12/03; 18:44:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 94237)
Ax, re US Gold Reserves
..Ax, I would like to politely say to you that what you propose to do is
not possible. If the US tried to start acguiring gold in the quantities
you mention, it would probably cause a collapse of the world's financial
system....

AX: Thank you for your observations.

Towncrier, I don't understand " where
would Switzerland's current gold receiver find fulfillment? "

AX: What do you mean, how would the U.S. pay for it? I would think
the U.S. Treasury would just write a check as any other buyer of gold
at so many dollars an ounce would do. Whoever has been buying
the gold that Britain sold in past years, and the gold that Switzerland
is selling now must be just writing a check for it.

Knotacre, " If the US tried to start acguiring gold in the quantities
you mention, it would probably cause a collapse of the world's financial
system. "

AX: OK, I suppose I could modify the proposal so that it wouldn't seem
that I am advocating a purchase of 20 k tons. Just a start is all I
would like to see. One ton at a time --whereever it is available.

Why should it cause a panic? China is buying - nobody panics about
that. If the USD is acceptable with only 8k ton gold backing, it should
be more acceptable at 8.001 kiloton backing.

The U.S. should just be out there trying to augment its reserves without
a top limit - but only in reasonable increments. I stand corrected.
Start with a single ton.

AX

Kagalaska

(01/12/2003; 19:09:07 MDT - Msg ID: 94241)

Why is spot digging a hole (truthcaster msg#94236)

IMHO periodic corrections are good. They shake out the weak players and provide a buying opportunity for the rest of us. Also,its the NY close that matters. Besides, Spot is just digging for a bone hidden by Spike.

Cavan Man

(01/12/2003; 19:34:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94242)

kagalaska: Live long and prosper.

Russell is right. The battle is just beginning.Richard Russell On Gold

What's the best rule in investing? Here it is dear subscribers, it's FOLLOW THE MONEY.

I'll give you an example. I'm going to use gold.

Around January 2001 when gold was selling at 255 there was almost no interest in gold. Then, as gold began to rise, old-timers like Richard Russell noticed the rise, noticed the moving averages looking bullish, and we advised buying gold. We were simply following the money. But Wall Street's experts talked gold down and told us that the central banks was "selling the junk" so why in the world should anyone buy it? But as gold continued to rise, gold began to elicit interest from other more-intelligent experts, and today on CNBC World I heard a ten minute serious discussion on gold. Why the discussion on gold at this time? Only one reason. The reason is that gold has been rising in price, and despite all the stupid and uneducated comments, the rising price of gold is now starting to generate serious interest. It's simply a case of FOLLOWING THE MONEY. The world is beginning to follow the path of real money.

Here's another interesting example of 'follow the money.' Saudi Arabia is beefing up its forces. Newsweek reports that to strengthen its ties with the White House, the Saudis have retained the services of a high-powered law firm. Which law firm? Well, surprise, surprise, it's the law firm of former Texas GOP congressman Tom Loefler, whose firm will be paid $720,000 a year. Loefler is one of Bush's top moneymen. In fact, Loefler headed up fund-raising for Bush's first gubernatorial campaign. Loefler is also close to VP Cheney.

History shows that gold travels in the direction of the most powerful nations. For years the US attracted the world's gold. Then gold started to leave the US during the '60s, and in 1971 President Nixon shut the gold window. Foreigners were no longer allowed to call in US gold.

So who is accumulating the world's gold now? Where's the money going? The word I hear is that the money is going to China and Asia in general. Recently (coincidence?) China opened the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and it seems that China is now encouraging its 1.3 billion population to buy gold. Now why would the Chinese, who have been gold-savvy for thousands of years, do that?

Then we hear the Gold Dinar has been instituted by Malaysia and soon all Muslim nations may be doing their transactions in gold. Hey, why would the Muslims be so interested in a gold currency. Competition for the dollar? Gosh, there's a thought.

As I write this morning the dollar has fallen to a new low and gold is fluctuating around its high. But gold has a technical problem. Looking at the stochastics, I can see that gold is heavily overbought. It needs a rest. True, an item can stay overbought, particularly in a bull market. But the overbought status of gold may act as a brake on gold at the present time. Furthermore, as I have explained, the Commercials have taken a huge short position against gold.

In view of the above, I would say that if gold can simply hold above 345, and in doing so work off its overbought position, it will be doing very well.

I want to add a few more words about gold. I realize that most of my subscribers now hold some kind of gold, the stocks, the metal, options, futures, I can't know for certain. But here's what I want to say.

Gold is in a primary bull market. Gold, real money, is a very emotional item, in that the central banks are afraid of it, the Austrian economists love gold, people who believe in the US Constitution love gold, inflationists hate gold, certain nations sell gold, other nations lust for gold, men throughout history have lived and died for gold, armies have fought for gold.

The reason, gold is the only money that has held its value over the course of history. Gold represents permanent wealth. This has occurred in the face of the fact that every paper currency in history has ultimately sunk to worthlessness.

In other words, gold has its detractors and its admirers, millions of them on both sides.

But gold is in a very peculiar position today. The central banks of the world are frightened of gold because if gold rises, if it takes an increasing amount of the central banks' paper junk money to buy an ounce of gold, then what the hell is wrong with their fiat paper money? It's a question and a situation that scares the devil out of the central banks.

So we can expect a lot of erratic action from gold as the various factions use their propaganda and their arguments for or against gold.

But the Russell position is this -- Gold is real money -- while dollars and euros and yen and kronos are man-manufactured pseudo-money. If central banks can generate "money" without sweat, then we know that their money is a lie. If it takes the sweat of thousands of men and multi-millions in capital to dig gold out of the ground, we know that gold is something more than a fantasy "legal tender" item produced by the central banks.

So here's what I'm getting at. Now is the time to accumulate gold and gold stocks. The hard part will be to sit with our gold and gold stocks while the great battle rages. Declines in gold will represent opportunities to accumulate more gold and gold items. Time is on the side of those of us who accumulate gold because in a bull market a given item will appreciate through time.

As the Fed generates an increasing amount of credit and paper in their battle to offset the forces of world deflation, the value of gold will increase. It's simple -- central banks are generating vastly more paper than the gold mines can produce in comparable gold values.

As gold climbs, be prepared to listen to the propaganda of the gold haters and those who fear gold. "It's too high," "It's being manipulated higher," "It's being bulled by war scares," "It's just a short squeeze."

Get used to it -- there's a huge contingent who have a vested interest in gold going nowhere. They possess loud voices, but they're losers. They're losers because they're on the wrong side of the truth.

Black Blade

(01/12/2003; 20:00:28 MDT - Msg ID: 94243)

Why gold is gaining in a world awash with dollars

http://www.business.scotsman.com/economy.cfm?id=43182003
Snippit:

A terrible fear-provoking thought is gaining ground among the guardians of the US economy. It is that the man in the street, who for decades has enabled the economy to remain on a long, upward path by consuming more than he produces, may be reaching the limit of his capacity for excess consumption and its corollary debt.

Now, horror of horrors, the ever-rapacious US consumers may be about to abandon profligacy and restore their balance sheets by consuming less and, perish the thought, saving. In a pre-emptive campaign to prevent the US consumer from abandoning over-spending and embarking on a path of prudent parsimony, Alan Greenspan has already used up most of his conventional firepower and slashed the Federal Funds rate to 1.25 per cent.

The US consumer, like the proverbial horse, has been brought to water but is reluctant to drink more. There is not yet panic within the hallowed halls of the Fed but the spectre of deflation, last seen in the 1930s, is starting to loom larger and it is recognised that unconventional weapons may be needed to prevent it taking grip. Dubya has already announced an economic stimulus (anti-deflation) tax-cutting initiative. There is a serious misconception that central banks can increase or decrease the money supply at will. The media make much of central banks resorting to the "printing press" to get economies out of trouble (or to get them into trouble by over-cranking the press and causing inflation).

In truth, the monetary system only works when there are willing borrowers and willing lenders. In an attempt to boost money supply, the Fed may aggressively buy Treasury Bonds from the banks, thus forcing down long-term interest rates and leaving the banks with vast sums of cash to do with what they will.

Black Blade: The "strong dollar" policy is dead. As Greenspan and Bernanke point out, they will fire up the printing presses to fight deflation and attempt to stimulate the economy while at the same time foreign investors bail (selling out of depreciating dollar investments). Gold continues to gain strength against weak currencies. For the dollar it's "Game Over".

ElGordo

(01/12/2003; 20:29:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94244)

Too Little Too Late-Oil steady

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=580&u=/nm/20030113/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc≺inter=1SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices held steady on Monday, shrugging off OPEC (news - web sites)'s weekend pact to raise supplies as being too little, too late to lift wafer-thin U.S. fuel stocks anytime soon.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed at an emergency meeting in Vienna on Sunday to increase official production limits by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to compensate for six weeks of losses in strike-bound Venezuelan supplies.

U.S. light crude tumbled almost 50 cents in early trade to an intraday low at $31.20 a barrel, but quickly recovered to stand six cents down at $31.62 at 9:45 p.m. EST Sunday.

Analysts said prices were little changed as traders saw no short-term relief for U.S. crude inventories, which are hovering just above 26-year lows as the stoppage in Venezuelan exports eats into supplies to the world's biggest oil consumer.

Oil from Middle East suppliers takes four to six weeks to reach U.S. shores, while Venezuelan supplies, which account for 13 percent of U.S. imports, arrive in about five days.

"There are delays in getting oil from the Middle East to the United States, plus OPEC's agreement is for 1.5 million barrels per day, but prior to the strike Venezuela production was about 2.5 million," said David Thurtell, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney

"The global market is going to remain tight and with ongoing war fears, you've got to be pretty brave to sell oil at the moment," said Thurtell.

ALARM BELLS

The Middle East-dominated cartel fears an oil price shock if a U.S.-led war in Iraq should come before Venezuelan supplies are restored.

Venezuela, OPEC's third-biggest producer, is fifth in world exporter rankings, while Iraq sells up to two million bpd overseas, which could be disrupted if war breaks out.

The strike and the looming threat of war pushed U.S. crude to a two-year high at $33.65 at the end of December, setting off alarm bells that a run of high energy bills would damage the fragile global economy.

OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah said on Sunday OPEC would meet again if Venezuela restores full production. OPEC has scheduled an ordinary ministerial meeting for March 11.

OPEC's agreement brings the cartel's official production ceiling for its 10 members bound by quotas to 24.5 million bpd. Iraq sells oil under the United Nations (news - web sites)' oil-for-food program and is excluded from OPEC's quota system.

Analysts saw little chance of prices heading below $30 despite the additional OPEC crude. Actual new oil to hit the world's 76 million bpd market would be limited, they said.

OPEC's latest increase was divided pro-rata among members, meaning Venezuela was also granted its share of the higher output limit despite the strike, which entered its 43rd day on Monday and has slashed oil exports to roughly one-fifth, or 500,000 bpd.

Many others in OPEC have little, or no, spare capacity to bump up production.

"I certainly see oil staying above $30 until the Venezuelan situation is sorted out," said Paul Ashby, oil and gas analyst at ABN Amro in Sydney.

knotakare

(01/12/2003; 20:34:52 MDT - Msg ID: 94245)

Ax, re US reserves

You said: "The U.S. should just be out there trying to augment its reserves withouta top limit - but only in reasonable increments. "

We can only hope and pray that our monetary administrators would have the smarts and foresight to be doing just as you say, on the sly. This is what I would do. But it appears that our US gold reserves over the past 30 years have been headed out of the country in a westerly direction, as a result of our large trade deficits and the "strong dollar policy " of the past 30 years, and especially the gold leasing by the FED to the Bullion Banks.

Ax, if you get a chance read the Book "Gold Wars" by Ferdinand Lipps. it discusses many of these issues you are concerned with. Barnes & Noble could not get the book for me last year, but I did get it through Amazon.com

Ax, good fortune to you on your gold trail! I am in sympathy with o your desire to get the US back on a stable money system.

Dollar Bill

(01/12/2003; 21:06:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94246)

A find from Mr Greshams Link

This is an exerpt from the EURO website MR GRESHAM linked us to today. The writer is discussing euro vunerabilities.
As you finish, consider, (forgive me for suggesting this but....), Jewish Finance men have a long term grudge against
Germany and Other euro countries, and consider the dollar as thier own. It is the dollar that supports Isreal and the US dollar military that backs up thier country and France and Germany both have made caustic comments about Isreal with some frequency.
It is a currency war, and if push comes to shove, the writer, who is a big EURO backer, is on to something.

"I, and the community of foreign exchange speculators contribute ninety five per cent to the daily FX turnover of three trillion dollars. That's three thousand billion dollars every day. That compares to the latest EU central bank reserves of three hundred and eleven billion dollars.

So, my speculator is part of a supremely powerful gang. He loathes EMU, but he will follow its progress as closely as any politician, perhaps more closely. For him, and his tribe of stateless warriors, there are billions of dollars at stake. That is the flag to which they bow, not nationalism, not politics, not dogma. He shall be a hyena waiting for the corpses of the countries that do not make EMU. Can you imagine the lead up to currency lock? Politicians trying to knock their countries and currencies into shape. Let me tell you the dream scenario of my speculator, let's call him Mr FX.

One of the key countries to EMU is having trouble with convergence. Its politicians are determined it will meet the criteria, they're doing what politicians of course will be unable to do once a part of EMU, they are using their unindependent central bank to manipulate monetary policy to a short term goal. Amongst the political community, it is unthinkable that this currency will not join EMU. But I, and Mr FX make a living from thinking the unthinkable. He thinks this country will not join EMU. He could buy a supremely cheap out of the money put option on this currency, because most people, even the markets, think even if the country doesn't quite meet the criteria, it will be fudged into EMU.

The odds, if you like, on his bet, are fantastic. A rank outsider. And then the unthinkable happens, the country doesn't join EMU. Mr FX and his co-warriors punish it ruthlessly, short selling its currency, driving the exchange rate down with their trillion dollar war chest. Perhaps the countries of the EU try to support the beleaguered currency, going into the markets. Norman Lamont could tell us all about how successful that will be. Ten billion dollars later, Mr FX and his gang retire to count their profits. But don't worry, they'll be back. Luxembourg is apparently trying to devise a war plan to head off speculative attack by FX predators.
***My advice is; get ready! And if you think the speculators can't get at the countries within EMU, think again. It won't be long before our derivatives geniuses dream up a new synthetic currency. Where there is motive, there will always be opportunity."

Sierra Madre

(01/12/2003; 23:20:45 MDT - Msg ID: 94247)

Belgian: excellent observations, tying in clues dropped over the years

Sir Belgian, you should also be known as Hercule Poirot, Jr., incarnation of the world-famous Belgian detective, a personage created by Agatha Christie.

Indeed, all we have are clues, faint tracks and intuition to tell us where the leaders of EU are going. Of course, they are not going to tell us! Democracy is a subject which cannot be criticized in our day, however, those in power take the decisions and lead - if they have the will and the intellect to do so. It was always so, and always will be so.

Your deductions are most interesting and make sense.

What we have at this Forum, is the ability to gather information and points of view as a group, and thus solve the puzzle or attempt to do so. The vast majority of humans is not even aware that the puzzle exists.

Going forward, we shall gather more clues and our certainty will increase.

Let us stock up on gold, before the whole puzzle is solved and everyone knows!

Sierra

Sierra Madre

(01/12/2003; 23:44:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94248)

Why is gold down?

My take:

The defenders of the dollar (and enemies of a rising gold price) know that the whole world is watching gold this evening.

Too many people know that the crisis is building, that gold is ready to burst upward this week.

The dollar bloc must nip the expectation in the bud, they must discourage and disorient the pro-gold forces. They cannot wait until N.Y. opens, to sell down. That may be too late!

They must start early, NOW, to sell it down.

BUY THE DIPS! They taught the stock market that. Now, it's our turn. How sweet it is!

Sierra

GoldnSilver2002

(01/12/2003; 23:59:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94249)

If you watch closely you can see their silly plans

The new plan now is simple'send a bunch of elliot wavers in amongst the goldbugs and then spread the word,gold isnt bad anymore,its in a bubble lol.They simply hope to send a big enough dip to allow their buddies in the back door.Where else can the gold come from but the weak hands?These dips dont last and the floor on gold gets higher and higher.The gold shorts are getting ill'so what would you expect them to say?"Gold will fly and im going bankrupt?" Many who missed the last upswing are waiting with drooling lips for the weak hands to drop their position and let them in the game.Since the shanghai exchange(china) opened the gold bottom has gone up and up.The lower gold goes,the more will be bought.The more is bought,the quicker physical dries up.Go ahead mr fed knock it down,give the asians an excuse to buy more.

Black Blade

(01/13/2003; 00:42:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94250)

Plot Reported Against Plane Carrying Gulf Troops

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=2031343
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States, stepping up mobilization for possible war with Iraq, has evidence of a plot to blow up an aircraft carrying troops and cargo to the Gulf region, The New York Times reported Sunday. Citing military and intelligence officials, the report on the newspaper's Web site said the evidence identified a specific civilian airline, a specific airport in the United States and a specific date and time for the planned attack. Officials learned of the plot within the past three weeks, the Times said. A Pentagon spokesman declined direct comment on the report, saying: "We generally would not discuss any specific intelligence that we receive." The military alerted the private airline directly, avoiding the risk of delays that might have come from working through domestic law enforcement authorities or federal transport safety agencies, the report said. Security officials at the company took steps to guard against an attack, changing the date and time of the flight and the route it followed, the newspaper reported. It did not make clear if the date of the targeted flight had now passed.

Black Blade: "Interesting Times"

Belgian

(01/13/2003; 00:52:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94251)

@ Ax

My 2 cents with a difficult answer on your question :
* The Paradox* : POG is low / lower, because there is NOT enough Physical Gold available and there might be too much buyers of Physical Gold out there, waiting to get some, all at once !!!

Yeah, right...it took me one year to get this paradox at its fulliest meaning !

This paradox (virtual contradiction) is the one and only explanation for ALL the anomalies we and many others are dissecting.

Those who want to sell their physical Gold "for dollars" have already done so : Private Gold-owners and 3,000 tonnes of underground gold. Central banks DO NOT sell Gold for dollars : They (CBs) are already stuffed with dollar (reserves) and are still adding dollars to their reserves from "exportitis" (US trade-deficit).

Ax, are you going to sell your Gold in exchange for abundantly printed helicopter-money ...THE PRINTING PRESSES working over-hours chez Bernanke & Span ???

Why do we need to drawn in a dollar-flood when OPEC says that "SUPPLY" will be guaranteed and when there is ANOTHER currency ???

GET THAT POG DOWN AND UNDER THE RADAR BECAUSE WE RAN OUT OF IT !!!

Belgian

(01/13/2003; 03:22:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94252)

To all smart Mister FX (forex) with their daily TRILLIONS....

Yes, you can move almost any currency, anytime ! But there is ONE thing that completely incapacitates you ALL : The uptake of physical gold in possession !

Gold is a Central Bank matter ! During the past 20 years, the total (global) Gold-situation has been maneuvered into an exceptional, historical *position*. Confetti can be plundered easely on top of economical sub-ordonation. But you can't get ALL the citizen's Gold confiscated...again !

Don't challenge the euro-concept !

This morning, again on CNBC-Europ : Gold is in a one-way street UP, regardless of what happens on the other economical/monetary terrains ! The long term, "fundamental" changes in Euroland are slowly and faintly recognized, despite many big problems that still have to be overcome.

Get IT in your possession NOW ! NIA but only a strict personal view communicated with all disclaimers thinkable!!!

ElGordo

(01/13/2003; 03:24:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94253)

Machine tools down big

WASHINGTON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Demand for U.S. machine tools in the first 11 months of 2002 fell 25.8 percent from the same period in 2001, two industry groups said on Sunday in a joint report.
The American Machine Tool Distributors' Association and the Association for Manufacturing Technology said U.S. January-November machine tool demand stood at $1.857 billion compared with $2.501 billion in the same 2001 period.
_______________
I'm just amazed at all the positive happy talk in the media.
How can they ignore all this info? I just don't get it.
Consumer is tanking, the worst is yet to come.

Topaz

(01/13/2003; 03:28:46 MDT - Msg ID: 94254)

@ax.

I might be way off but I think the Treasury has taken your advice and now has dibs over SA Gold resources (as opposed to company reserves).
The need to weaken the $ is apparent given the T-Bond market Yield, exports dying on the vine (trade defecit) etc. unlike your competitors you ONLY hold Gold in reserve and it is through Gold you must effect a devaluation.
Don't write off 'ol Buckaroo just yet...can you imagine the awesome prospect of an America, in full export mode after (say) a 50% deval. vis all other currencies?
With every cent deval. vis E, Germany receives another "lash" in it's death of a thousand cuts.
Export your Deflation to the World Ax.

Christian

(01/13/2003; 04:05:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94255)

Creating deposits for loan creation.

Banks have insufficient deposits to make loans and therefore deposits are created by leasing gold, sell it at spot, giving them immediate cash to create that deposit to make loans based on the reserve credit creation process. Gold loans provided a large part (52%) of the capital for the housing boom of the 90's. I have yet to see a bank that does not have access to Reuter's Monitor Dealing Information Service (RDS) to check on the Gold Lease Forward Rate Agreement (GOLFRA) and the London Interbank Forward Rate (GOFO). I have yet to see a bank that does not use the Forwards + Options as off balance sheet agreements. I would like to see one bank or SP500 corporation make public their off balance sheet debt. All banks and corporations have two sets of books, one for shareholders to look at their shareholder profits that don't exist and one for the tax man to show the ever increasing tax loss carry forwards. Look very carefully at Enron's or Kmart's books- both show large nonexisting profits to shareholders and at the same time ever increasing tax loss carry forwards when the times were good. Enron like Kmart used GOFRA= gold forward agreements to protect themselves from a rising gold price on their off balance sheet gold debt. Look at General Electric's off balance sheet debt. It is many times it's equity base that should belong to the shareholders but don't. The state of Maine has an off balance sheet debt of $1.7 Trillion on 1.2 million people. The United States Federal Government has a $78 Trillion off balance sheet gold debt. This country has to loot other countries just to stay even.-- Cash in hand, that is what you are worth. All the rest of your equity will perform a disappearing act if you don't have it in cash in your hand. 95% of the debt carried on books can never be paid because on that debt due there is only 5 cents on the dollar of cash money available to pay it with. How does a person pay $1.00 worth of debt with 5 cents? I want to know. Presently debt is increasing at its fastest pace and coin in the realm (circulation) is falling when it should be the other way around. Credit creation is causing inflation and debt payment with more credit creation money is bringing on deflation. When it is all said and done what goes up (inflation) must come down (deflation). How does a nation pay its debt when its debt exceeds the money supply many many many times over. You tell me!!!!!! I would like to know.

Hipplebeck

(01/13/2003; 04:45:46 MDT - Msg ID: 94256)

CNN POLL

Should:

A- US go to war against Iraq?

B- George W. Bush and Saddam Hussein battle it out in hand to hand combat inside thunderdome?

vote today.

This is one we'll never see because both these fellers are cowards and would never dream of sacrificing themselves for their country, even though they would both be all to happy to sacrifice your life.

Belgian

(01/13/2003; 04:55:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94257)

The world's Astronomical growing Debt and GOLD....

Gold should not be set out against debt ! Debt is "nothing" and Gold is "wealth". Oranges are not peanuts.
All currencies are debt on theirselves. How can the Value of Gold be expressed in a currency (dollar) that represents nothing but debt ? Gold-Value should be compared with real tangible, positive, things. Monetary Gold against oil-reserves and the real GDP of the world. Not the GDP expressed in debt-dollars-reserve-currency, but Valued against the total amount of available, aboveground Gold.

Debt will never go away and will always weight more and more as a "negative" force (ballast) on any progress.
This astronomical debt must be replaced by something of positive Value, Gold-Wealth. Gold as a measuring rod for what this world is capable of producing, net/net.

Therefore Gold's value needs an appropiate pricing-unit (currency). Up until now, the dollar was on duty for this. Soon this dollar pricing-unit will be laid off and become unemployed as a Gold-measuring-standard.

Give this process all the time that is needed.

Hipplebeck

(01/13/2003; 05:17:15 MDT - Msg ID: 94258)

First and foremost, the dollar (as all fiat currencies) is a confidence game.
If the US began buying gold, it would be betraying a lack of confidence in their own currency.
Everyone would jump on this bandwagon in a second, and the cracks in confidence would widen until the inevitable earthquake would come.
If the US shows the least amount of lack of confidence the game is up.
Did you see last week that they brought out Cheney to make a speech about the economy and the resolve to go to war?
Behind that microthin veneer of confidence is the truth.
Once the truth gets out, the house of cards comes crumbling down.
Do you know the story of the Emporer with no clothes?
Well, in this case, let's just call him the IMPORTER with no clothes.

Rock

(01/13/2003; 05:29:07 MDT - Msg ID: 94259)

Re: Hipplebeck

The days of dueling are over and I dont'a agree that GWB is a coward. Its obvious you hate both Saddam and Bush, but as for me I am backing the US president and praying that he makes the right decision. As a veteran of the US Army in the 39th Infantry Division I would go in a heart beat to protect and defend. Saddam is a time bomb waiting to go off, I don't really feel like waiting until we have an out break of small pox before we say, oh I guess GWB was right after all.

Sounds like you believe Saddam as for me I think he's lying and I don't want to find out after the fact that he has WMD when its too late. I hate war like the next guy but I don't trust Iraq, we know they have WMD but its like finding a needle in a hay stack.

Sorry I got off the beaten trail oh noble host but the futures look good for the markets in these early morning hours, it should be an interesting day today.

Rock

Black Blade

(01/13/2003; 06:30:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94260)

From The Mailbag

Courtesy of Addison Wiggin (DailyReckoning):

"I'm old enough to have experienced the real estate crashes of the 70's, 80's and 90's," writes one reader. "I'm still waiting for the next one which I believe will dwarf the others.

"I work in an area that is being promoted as the Gold Coast or Newport Riviera of California. It's behind the Orange curtain, supposedly far enough away from Los Angeles to make a difference in lifestyles as well as insulate it economically from many of the pitfalls that L.A. has experienced. Won't work. A friend told me today that she has a Steinway baby grand piano from a previous marriage she's been thinking about selling and its worth about $70,000.

"She called one of the premier piano sales firms nearby and the manager said he's getting 6-10 calls a day to sell these pianos. People are hurting so bad that they're trying to stave off the lenders by selling their assets. Another friend told me that his son works for a mortgage firm and many customers who've been buying homes for one million to 1.5 million have debts of $700,000 to 1.2 million dollars! It's only a matter of time - and not much longer at that."

Unfortunately for some this is one 'predictable pattern' that seems to have really taken shape and could pose a problem.

Black Blade: Consumers are buried under crushing debt and it is only a matter of time. This last Christmas Season was by most indications very "grim" for retailers. Consumers are fast going from being spenders to being savers. They simply have no choice as they observe that the "Bone Pile" grows by leaps and bounds as revealed last week by the US Labor Department and foreclosures are rising at a furious pace. Companies are expected to slash the workforce further and new hires are at the bottom of the list for next year. It remains to be seen if the "President's Fiscal Stimulus Proposal" will even make it out of "committee" or be watered down so much as to be meaningless. Meanwhile the US and the UK gear up for war in the Middle East and the threat of renewed terrorist activity hangs heavy in the air. This morning the primates on Wall Street are buying into the Market Index Futures so as to "jumpstart" the market trading at the open. Lately trading volumes have been rather low and the vast majority of trading has been institutional money. A lot of cash may flow into the market as companies must dip into incoming revenues to prop up under funded pension plans. But that will become evident so the savvy investors who study the real earnings and not so evident to the Lemmings who are deceived by "pro forma" or "operating" earnings and line up to become "Lemming Stew". It should be quite "entertaining" today as the Lemmings run to and fro.

Christian

(01/13/2003; 06:44:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94261)

Hedging = Financial Engineering Credit Creation.

Hedging-techniques used using the futures and options markets. Forward Contract-a transaction in which 2 parties agree to the purchase and sale of gold at a future date. Mostly used on the OTC for credit creation gold swapes. OTC options, future contracts and credit creation gold swaps are not tradeable contracts, they constitute an agreement between two principals. Because OTC options and futures trades are not tradeable, they are much more flexible then exchange options. Anyone with money can trade exchange traded options and futures. There is no way to trade credit creation gold on the exchange but it is widely done on the OTC. 30,000 tonnes of credit creation gold are traded on the OTC every year on the OTC. The Futures markets make possible the new concept of gold as a trading vehicle on which to make money. Margin purchase for as little as 10%, or $100,000 can control $1,000,000 in gold is very possible on the exchange traded exchange. On the OTC anything is possible as long as two entities agree to it. Sound money is the first bastion of a society's defense. To destroy a nation the best way is to destroy its currency. What better way to indebt a nation with debt then the present system without the means of paying that debt. To devalue the dollar is to make people poorer then what they already are. Costs increase while the value of income decreases is not a way to get ahead.

Black Blade

(01/13/2003; 07:41:06 MDT - Msg ID: 94262)

Venezuela's Strike Worsens as Chavez Warns Schools

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/01/13/253.html
Snippit:

The Associated Press CARACAS, Venezuela -- President Hugo Chavez vowed he will not be driven from office by a six-week strike, and threatened to fire or jail teachers joining the work stoppage. Meanwhile, police used tear gas to prevent Chavez supporters and opponents from clashing in the city of Maracay, the military's nerve center 70 kilometers from Caracas. Chavez, who on Friday warned businesses hoarding food that he might send troops to seize basic foodstuffs, told thousands of supporters he would also not allow schools to stay closed. Accusing strike organizers of closing public and private schools, leaving millions of students without classes, Chavez warned that teachers and school directors joining the strike will be fired or even jailed. Carlos Fernandez, head of the country's leading business chamber, said many schools closed because of low attendance. He insisted most parents were not sending their children to school in support of the strike. The country's $100 billion economy shrank an estimated 8 percent in 2002, largely due to political instability. Inflation has surpassed 30 percent while unemployment reached 17 percent.

Black Blade: From bad to worse. Civil war looks like a possibility and the oil fields are shutdown which will require months before they can be brought back to normal production once the strike ends.

Rock

(01/13/2003; 07:52:28 MDT - Msg ID: 94263)

re: Tricky

Its a pleasure to meet you and may I say welcome to the castle where the unlearned (like me) become the learned (like you). Thanks for your imput. I have always maintained that math was a perfect law and you can't dispute the truth.

Also I wanted to say thank you to Mr. G & Belgium for helping clear up some this confusion about the Euro. Mr G that was a pretty good site you posted on the Euro also.

Black Blade

(01/13/2003; 07:52:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94264)

Russia sending missile-armed ships to protect Gulf interests

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/topstories/story/0,4386,165850,00.html?
Snippit:

MOSCOW - Russia is preparing three naval vessels for a long-term mission to the Persian Gulf within the next month to protect its 'national interests' in the event of an American invasion of Iraq. The move could heighten tension between Moscow and Washington - both having interests in Iraq's oilfields - and comes at a time when the United States is doubling the size of its troop deployments to the Gulf region.

Black Blade: Looks like it's getting a bit crowded in the Gulf. "Interesting Times"

sector

(01/13/2003; 08:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94265)

U.S. Economy: Fired Workers Exhaust Benefits at Record Rate

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_box.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_economies&box=ad_box_all&tag=economy∣dle=ad_frame2_economies&s=APiJcrhTBVS5TLiBF
01/13 01:29

By Carlos Torres

New York, Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- It's fortunate that Miguel Lopez has enjoyed being a stay-at-home dad. It's the only work he can find these days.

``There's been nothing,'' said the 38-year-old Staten Island man, who lost his job as a contract worker on the Merrill Lynch & Co. trading floor after the Sept. 11 attacks and ran out of unemployment benefits in July. ``It's like I've hit a brick wall.''

The percentage of unemployed workers who can't find a job before drawing their last benefit check is the highest in at least three decades, Labor Department figures show. The jump in this so- called exhaustion rate is fueled by the despair of job-seekers like Lopez and may further retard an economy that likely grew at a 1.4 percent annual rate last quarter, economists said.

It's part of the reason President George W. Bush last week unveiled a $670 billion tax-cut plan he said will spur the economy and help the unemployed find jobs faster.

``The job market really has become quite inhospitable,'' said Ram Bhagavatula, head of global research at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in New York. ``The creation of new jobs really has weakened.''

According to November data, the latest available, of the people who started collecting benefits six months earlier, 41.8 percent had used up their allotted payments without finding a job. That's the highest percentage since at least 1971, the earliest the Labor Department records are available.

The trend worries some economists. While unemployment usually continues to rise in the early stages of a recovery, persistent joblessness can prolong sluggish growth.

``Households in distress are in danger of skipping mortgage payments or credit card payments, and when that occurs it can ripple through other areas,'' said Steven Cochrane of Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
Times are changing. Denial is giving way to anger, then to acceptance.
The US economic cancer patient becomes a true invalid.

Belgian

(01/13/2003; 08:47:15 MDT - Msg ID: 94266)

My house...My castle !

All nation states do encourage their citizens to acquire land with a house on it as their private property. This is a very old basic, economic (and social) given. Make man have something to strive for and defend. Debts for the realization of man's home in possession was always considered as quite safe. Not only by the private bankers but also by the states that exercise controls on these banks. But....
Things ran out of hand and housing-debt is now totally unreliable for quite some time now. Refinancing, requires lower and lower interest rates and inflation-instrument, to rise the home's price-worth, is impossible. What now ?

This situation is to a certain extend comparable with Gold.
Substitute *house* for man's physical Gold in possession.
Gold has ceased to be man's property on wich he could rely as a wealth-tangible, over time. Man took Gold on debt and paperized Gold. Man bought houses on credit and isn't able to take ownership of it anymore.

The nation states did everything to make house-property succeed on a broad scale. The nation states did everything to denigrate Gold as to not encourage Gold-ownership.

I found this semi-analogy quite interesting and is perhaps an illustration as to "why" Eurolanders are all born with a house-brick in their stomach and Euroland is in the process to encourage Gold-ownership, again !?

Belgian

(01/13/2003; 08:57:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94267)

Help !

Question : Why do Chavez opponents use the vital Venezuelan oil as "the" weapon against him ? There is something here that I don't get. Any takers who can explain what is really going on (behind) there. One never shoots a mosquito (Chavez) with a canon (oil) ? TIA.

CoBra(too)

(01/13/2003; 09:14:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94268)

@ Belgian - My Home - My Castle

Maybe, the government encouragement to own a house can be derived from property taxes. Even if in USA today (pun fractionally intended) you can't really speak of broad ownership, except maybe by the mortgage lenders - GSE's and Banks.

Gold, on the other hand doesn't 'lend' itself as easily to taxation! Hmm, cb2

Hipplebeck

(01/13/2003; 09:19:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94269)

Belgian

They tried to treat Chavez like a mosquito.
The people came pouring out of the mountains and put a stop to the coup.
Now they are desperate.
The spotlight is shining on them.
He is a leader of a new movement sweeping all of Latin America. He's not a mosquito anymore.

Christian

(01/13/2003; 09:41:15 MDT - Msg ID: 94270)

Try-ing to figure this out.

When a reserve bank makes a gold loan it passes the physical stock of gold to a borrower in exchange for a secured commitment to repay the gold. The security (first mortgage??) of the gold loans are regarded as a near substitute for physical gold, because gold loans take first place on assets before other loans, bondholder debt or shareholder equity. Most gold loans made to borrowers are sold back in a prearranged arrangement to lender who then monetizes the loan claims. Does this mean that a chief excecutive officer can simply use an off balance sheet borrowing like Enron did, move the money into ITERA, like they did, and in the process wipe out bondholders and shareholders? The Bin Laden Family and the Bush Clan own 1/3 of ITERA. ITERA owns a considerable amount of in ground oil assets in Turkey, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Iran and a host of other countries that end with istan or tan. Why has ITERA bought into so many oil companies.

miner49er

(01/13/2003; 09:41:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94271)

Some thoughts (maybe valid) on the prospects of a Euro gold coin...

Among Belgian's excellent commentary yesterday is one item that brought to mind some musings about the occasionally discussed Euro gold coin. From Belgian's #94221:

"As Eurolanders, we all had US$-bonds in portfolio. As individuals we acted as CBs and took the dollar-exchange-reserve as the mother of all derivatives in our financial planning. Euroland had to foresee an escape-route for getting rid of all those paper-dollar-assets for its citizens and CB-dollar-reserves."

Thus in formulating an "escape-route" the question arises as to what kind of strategies the euro-planners have to wean the citizenry from these instruments without causing a rout with all its subsequent destabilization. To reiterate Husky's well stated comment about the whole euro-thing -- which certainly encompasses more than just the euro currency, but all the political and social considerations of a united Europe -- the lower level groundwork for integration has been in the works for a long time. This has occurred mostly without fanfare, or very explicit declarations of what was taking place. This is not devious, just smart. Why tip your hand to your opposition? Why try to explain outright a host of extremely complex diplomatic and political undertakings, that take years to develop, and compromise your efforts, and be entirely misunderstood, as well?

If we use this line of reasoning, and take as true an analysis that views past European support for the current "gold as commodity" framework, as part of a plan to buy time, and prepare for a day when the dollar could be displaced with a more suitable monetary paradigm, then it makes sense to think that any such "weaning" strategy would have certain characteristics. It would be a) indirect, so as not to "tip the hand;" b) seem perfectly appropriate for the current setup, while posturing well for the new thing; and therefore c) cause the desired result, without necessarily having anyone realize what was actually taking place. For if the public really understood, they would run to the new thing to get an advantage, and thereby disrupt the plan before it was ready for fruition, to everyone's detriment.

So, what of this we hear of the issuance of a euro-denominated gold coin? At first glance it causes us to take note of what may appear a contradiction. A contradiction, that is, between this concept of regularly revaluing the gold reserves of the ECB / Euro system, and the comprehensively discussed difficulties with gold usage as money. Curious, yes. Contradiction, no. Rather a clever extension of the above proffered strategy.

The public owns liability-derived assets almost entirely. Save for typically a home, if that, they have bank accounts, with their sundry deposit instruments (loans to the bank); bonds, equities, and a smattering of diverse derivative concoctions. Because of the current paradigm, these holdings are either directly tied to the dollar, or indirectly LARGELY influenced by what the US dollar (effectively, the US economy -- and by extension, the United States, generally) does.

The public in Europe is not really gold-conscious, yet. It can be argued that they are moreso than the US, but this part is trivial. Neither is fully awake to what is happening, and if awake, none of us has explicitly laid out details. If we did, it would only cause panic, as everyone tried to get on board early. It IS, however, in the best interests of those subscribing to the euro-concept to have the euro zone population (and its partners) possess gold. They do not pose a threat to the mighty by holding gold, as that amount that might be held -- while possibly a fortune to the individual citizen -- collectively would still pale in comparison to the holdings of these giants. But in the same way that majority holders of some equity issue benefit by myriad owners of some minor stake in said issue, so giant gold owners benefit by the general population having an interest in gold, too. These interested parties are what we call buyers. They are what create and support a market, and bid up the price.

In order to put gold into the hands of the citizenry -- a citizenry that is no longer accustomed to owning gold, or trading their money for a wealth asset, outright -- it might make sense to include the asset in the money, at least as a first step. This would take the form of an over-valued gold coin. In other words, say a 100 euro coin would contain maybe 50 euros worth of gold (actual dosages may vary...). Thus at their initial distribution, the tendency would be to use the coin for commerce, and not hoard it, as the coin would be worth more as euro currency, than the gold it contains.

Ahhh... but at what value does one fix the gold? And if we fix the price, doesn't that compromise the "free-gold" market-marking properties of the reserve base? Well, not at all actually... Issuing an under-valued gold coin is not going to constrain the ECB or Euro System Banks from revaluing their gold reserves. In the first place, should issued under-valued coins have their gold content appreciate to the point where hoarding them is more desirable than spending them, then the objective of getting gold into the hands of the citizenry would begin its realization. Although these coins would not consume a large amount of reserves, their presence would raise awareness and interest in gold. As these euro users start to recognize that gold was gaining in price, these circulating coins provide an easy, first means for the uninitiated to get at some gold, by pulling these coins out of circulation. This would help bring further momentum to the gold market -- the physical gold market. Thus without "official" proclamation, the gold-acquisition message can be most effectively conveyed to the Eurolander, in that he figures it out entirely for himself .

Since, the amount of gold in the coinage would not be a sizable portion of reserves, book losses due to significant gold appreciation would be small, while the benefits derived from the aforesaid new gold-awareness would greatly outweigh them. The exercise would simply be a cost of doing business. The problem that inheres to the traditional gold-standard -- that being the requirement to maintain the currency at par with the backing instrument, so as not to cause instability in the credit markets -- is not a threat here. This gold coin issuance is NOT a gold backing of the currency. It is simply using gold in a portion of it, specifically a few million higher denomination coins. As the gold content at the time of minting would be valued less than the coins' denomination, transactions using these coins -- including credit transactions -- would still treat the coin as a token representation of the coin's currency value, and not as a commodity itself. Thus collateralization that may include these coins, is actually made with simple euros, and not gold. There is no incentive to depress the price of the coins' gold content. Neither is there any interest regarding this collateral should gold appreciate, as any claims made upon the collateral are not required to be paid with these coins (or their gold content), but simply in legal tender euros -- coins, paper, or electrons.

In a traditional commodity-backed monetary standard, a perception of irresponsibility in the backed currency leads to a rush to exchange the currency for the backing instrument -- which necessarily is also then a currency, and of necessity a superior one. This exposes the inflated issuance brought about by fractional reserve lending. This leads to default as claims don't match assets, and thereby discredits the claims themselves, causing them to devalue.

In the euro setting, an appreciating gold price would only threaten the usage of the coins issued -- a relatively small proportion of the total euro monetary base. And if the coins are hoarded, they are only serving to improve the personal balance sheets (economic conditions) of the private sector "hoarders" -- mostly euro-zone residents, and those doing business with it.

So, while gold is in this contained range, any mintage of undervalued euro gold coins only helps spread the euro. Mostly they would move as simple currency. Some would be removed from circulation in the form of novelties. Think of this. What a great gift idea! Give your grandchildren, say, a birthday or graduation present of a shiny, new 100 euro gold coin. Kind of like the way Americans were (are) encouraged to give the kids savings bonds -- only better. (Although, it would be even BETTER to give them a nice all-gold coin, keep in mind these are baby steps to re-introduce the gold-concept to the populace.)

And when gold finally does go deep north, the booster stage of this present contract-gold, POG-on-a-leash paradigm will run out of fuel, and lose its utility. As it falls gracelessly to earth, the solid gold payload will break away, and accelerate to the heavens. Then each grandkid will have a nice but different souvenir. One, a pretty (but worthless) piece of paper, which might be framed for a wall hanging. The other, a piece of that scarce and precious metal -- the timeless wealth of ages, and the treasure of kings.

Cheers,
miner

Aura

(01/13/2003; 10:15:35 MDT - Msg ID: 94272)

Venezuela

www.zmag.org/ZNETTOPnoanimation.htmlHi Belgian, Itseems it not one mosquito that`s being attacked but a whole swarm of mosquitoes,the recenly re-empowered Venezuelan population!

Hipplebeck

(01/13/2003; 10:29:52 MDT - Msg ID: 94273)

gold as money

Wouldn't be easiest to just price everything in grams?
Why bother with all these currencies?
Dollar, peso, euro blah blah blah.
Goldgrams, equal in value all over the world.
I guess that is just too honest.

You know, if everyone had as much gold as I do
Oh....wait
that's impossible

canamami

(01/13/2003; 10:30:58 MDT - Msg ID: 94274)

PPT defending the $355.00 line

Will the line be breached? If so, when? Will a pro-gold battering-ram do the trick? If yes, who/what will that battering-ram be?

slingshot

(01/13/2003; 10:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94275)

Siege Engine

" Golds Ascension"The morning sun had shown its beauty and the sunlight warmed the council chamber on that cold winters day. The days have been dismal with the color of grey skies. Sir MK finished his story of the Looking Glass and the sun shown brighter than ever as to give hope to those who listened. The night was long and it was now mid day. Time to rest.
Stephen the Great entered the chamber and could see that the candles burned low in their holders. He was greeted by Sir Powell. Sir MK smiled and said, Good to see your face again Stephen. It has been a long day for your I see Sir MK. You and your Knights need sleep. The council chamber slowly emptied. When Sir MK left the room, Stephen the Great looked down on the Mighty Oaken Table to see Drawings of Flags and pictures of swords and armament. Lady Waverider was about to pass by Stephen and he stopped her. Lady Waverider would you do me a favor. She said, Of course My Lord. Would you send Bonfir to me. He stands by the outer door.Thank you Lady Waverider.

Gandalf the White and Magdelena watched Stephen as he touch the paper on the table and examined them intensely.

Bonfir was soon by Stephens side. Look at these. Bonfir
looked down upon the table. We have seen these before. What is your command Sire, asked Bonfir.

Return to the Valley of Clouds and bring those of these flags to the castle. Also bring provisions enough for one months march, said Stephen. As you wish'said Bonfir.

As Stephen the Great turned,Magdelena grasped the hand Of Gandalf sitting next to her. Worry not my friends'said Stephen.

Gandalf thinking to himself. Another,FOA do not be long in your quest.

There has been word that The King with No Name has been stopped at the mountains pass. He has with him his main army and is building defenses at the base of the mountain.
Many riders with different flags roam the countryside.

slingshot

(01/13/2003; 11:24:14 MDT - Msg ID: 94276)

Canamami Msg#94274

$355.00$355.00 will be breached in time as the time between each battle decreases and the time of battle lessens.Our battering ram is the slow accumulation and one ounce at a time.

Slingshot----------------<>

Zhisheng

(01/13/2003; 11:30:55 MDT - Msg ID: 94277)

Up Into the Close!

Like a horse headed back to the barn after a day under the saddle.

Sierra Madre

(01/13/2003; 11:32:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94278)

Belgian: your questions regarding Chavez and Venezuela...

As far as I am concerned, Chavez is a Nationalist who wants a renewal of a united Latin America in the ideals of what Latin Americans call "the Liberator" (from Spanish rule).

He is friendly with Castro, but Chavez is not a Socialist nor is his aim - I think - a socialistic Venezuela.

The big problem in Venezuela is no doubt, the American desire to exercise complete control over Venezuelan oil, and a Nationalist in power, does not please TPTB at all, at all!

This whole upheaval in Venezuela is doubtless a work of destabilization carried out by US secret services. You don't get these "demonstrations" without using massive amounts of MONEY to move people!

Chavez has removed 10 tonnes of gold from the Central Bank and has placed these reserves within the military compound where he works and sleeps. Tells you something of the importance of PHYSICAL.

I would advise Chavez to initiate FREE COINAGE OF SILVER at once. This would be his salvation. But - who will tell him?

Sierra

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/13/2003; 11:34:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94279)

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Gandalf the White

(01/13/2003; 11:35:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94280)

Sir Canamami and Sir Slingshot !! <;-)

canamami (1/13/03; 10:30:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 94274)
PPT defending the $355.00 line
Will the line be breached? If so, when? Will a pro-gold battering-ram do the trick? If yes, who/what will that battering-ram be?
===
slingshot (1/13/03; 11:24:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 94276)
Canamami Msg#94274
$355.00
$355.00 will be breached in time as the time between each battle decreases and the time of battle lessens.Our battering ram is the slow accumulation and one ounce at a time.
Slingshot----------------<>
===
WOWSERS -- You are sure fast on the draw today Sir Slingshot !! AND SO correct also ! The days of the CABAL control of the PAPER Pricing Mechanism are numbered ( but that number is becoming smaller as each day passes! ). The continual "one ounce at a time" is killing the CABAL and The Sheeple are starting to THINK about getting some themselves. The are finally figuring out that there may be a reason between everything of a higher value being called GOLD --- and the real PHYSICAL Gold being better than the little green paper notes with numbers and pictures of dead old famous people on them.
Thanks to both of you for the QUESTION -- AND like Henri says ....
CLINK !!!
<;-)

Christian

(01/13/2003; 11:36:54 MDT - Msg ID: 94281)

(No Subject)

There are many precious metals, be it platinum, rhodium, palladium and many more metal I do not know what they are but a lot end with ium. All can be used for credit creation. M3 broad debt money measure is increasing at an annualized rate of 21%. Behind this credit creation machine are household debts of $35Trillion, $8Trillion of vehicle debt, $8Trillion of credit card debt, $6Trillion federal debt and $78Trillion off balance sheet debt along with $49 Trillion off balance sheet state debt and who knows what corporate and corporate off balance sheet debt is, but it is in the $Trillions. Here, in all its naked and insane glory stands the economic "theory" that if you add to "demand" by creating new debt, the economy will climb out of debt.

Sierra Madre

(01/13/2003; 11:54:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94282)

Miner49er: regarding your post #94271....

Your post is extensive and I will not enter into discussion of all points you make, but I should like to point out a few things:

The 100 Euro gold coin, if minted with 50 Euro's worth of gold, presents the following problems:

Any coin with any content of precious metal, be it silver or gold, will be hoarded. It will not circulate. Because people recognize that a 100 Euro gold coin with only 50 Euros gold content is far better than a 100 Euro banknote. People will hang on to these coins, as long as additional currency is fed to the public, by the Central Bank and banking system(s)

If and when (an unlikely situation) there is no additional currency being created, then the 100 Euro coin would circulate, as people felt the need to use the hoarded coins. As long as more paper is created, the paper will displace the Euro.

Actually, the 100 Euro coin with 50 Euros gold content is OVERVALUING the gold (50 of gold "equals" 100 of Euro) Money that circulates is always OVERVALUED money. However, the 100 Euro bill is even MORE OVERVALUED, as here, .1 gram of paper "equals" 100 of Euro. So, the coin will be hoarded, the paper will circulate, because it is more overvalued.

When the gold content of the 100 Euro gold coin exceeds its nominal, engraved value, either because gold goes up or the Euro goes down, or both, then...the coins will be purchased for slightly more than their nominal "100 Euro" value, and MELTED. So the people are "back to square one", again without gold coinage.

The holders will have to suffer a heavy devaluation or miss a large rise in the price of gold, before this OVERVALUED gold coin begins to protect them from further deterioration in the Euro, or allows them to benefit from further rises in the price of gold. That 100 Euro gold coin, is A BAD DEAL.

The solution to the conundrum of perpetual gold coinage, lies in NO NOMINAL VALUE, and its usefulness can be enhanced, to use Belgian's term, by having its daily value quoted in Euros, by the ECB, and having all banks exchange gold coin for ordinary bills and ordinary coins, at the quoted rate, with no discount.

Sierra

Sierra Madre

(01/13/2003; 11:57:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94283)

Correction to post below:

I should have written:

"...as paper will displace the 100 Euro gold coin."

Sierra

(01/13/2003; 12:26:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94284)

Belgian msg#: 94267

It is possible that Washington has made a strategic decision to switch from oil to alternative energy sources. In that case, the internal elements that would resist to the switch (end users, owners of existing oil-based infrastructure) have to be persuaded. Moreover, rival countries should not be allowed to gain from cheap oil while US switches to alternative energy sources.

The idea may be to make oil unavailable and/or too expensive for a prolonged period of time and force the whole world to make the switch.

US moves around the Middle East are becoming too broad based, as if oil was not the prime target, but military control of vast geographical areas is. This observation reinforces the observations on Venezuela and Chavez.

Just an idea!

Aristotle

(01/13/2003; 12:28:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94285)

Hipplebeck asks, "Wouldn't be easiest to just price everything in grams?"

Names for the Gold measuring unit aside, it's been tried, and it has failed.

It can't work. Bear with me.

The effort fails when the meaning of "gram" (or whatever you wanna call it) becomes obscured through the monetary process of installment payments, derivatives, and bank deposits/lending.

If you have reasonable research or observation skills, the fate you can readily witness for the U.S. dollar is exactly the fate that your precious monetary gram would share.

Now why would you want to do something that dastardly to my physical property?

Gold. Treat it with the respect it deserves. And... get you some! --- Aristotle

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/13/2003; 12:34:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94286)

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Sierra Madre

(01/13/2003; 12:52:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94287)

My predictions of two years ago, here (Jan 24, 2001)

Perhaps my post of two years ago will interest some posters and lurkers. I found it accidentally, while reviewing some files.

************

Sierra Madre (01/24/01; 15:15:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 46328)
The U.S. "Budget Surplus"....some thoughts for your consideration.
Last few years we've been receiving our brainwashing about the great U.S. Budget Surplus and how the National Debt
was going to be paid down in a few years. Totally amazing prospect of unending prosperity!

First of all, with regard to that mythical surplus, we have to take into account that a considerable part of the tax-money
coming into the Treasury, was produced by Capital Gains taxes on rising values of stocks. As is now evident, taxes from
that source are going to be sharply down next April 15th. Stocks are not rising, nor do we - at this Forum especially -
expect them to rise substantially, if at all, for quite some time.

Incidentally, these Capital Gains were produced by: Inflation. There has been, and continues to be, a tremendous inflation,
caused by Credit Expansion. Not only an increase in money in circulation causes a general rise in prices. A general rise in
prices can be caused by a Credit Expansion, which the U.S. has had in spades. Read: prudentbear.com, about the Credit
Expansion. And Von Mises, about the effects of credit expansion not based on savings.

As good old Vern Myers used to point out in his excellent newsletter twenty years ago, Credit Expansion is like a forming
cloud, which grows and grows. Eventually, it cannot grow any further. Precipitation begins. Rain begins to fall. That rain
can be likened to either the default of debtors, in which case the creditors (buyers of bonds, etc) lose out and they pay the
debt with their loss; or else, the cloud comes down in the form of: hyperinflation caused by the desperate attempt to
liquefy debt with mass monetization, i.e., cash is manufactured and delivered for debt instruments in an attempt to stave off
default. But that cash is deadly, in that it immediately becomes demand for goods: runaway prices of things. In this case
too, the creditors lose out big, as their money shrinks drastically in purchasing power. The debt is paid by the creditors. In
both cases, the debtors cannot pay the debt, since they are bankrupt. To some extent, to the extent of their capital
investment, the debtors of course, also pay part of the debt, but they cannot, by any means, cover all of it to make their
creditors whole.

But to return to the theme of Budget Surplus.

So part of the Budget Surplus was the result of a monstrous Credit Expansion, which produced a rather painless tax
revenue from Capital Gains, paid willingly by people who thought it right to pay a tax on part of their very substantial
"profits" in the Stock Market. That is now gone, and its return is very, very doubtful.

Another part of the tax revenue has been coming from Social Security taxes. Instead of attributing the moneys coming in
for Social Security to a Social Security Fund, the U.S. Gov't has mixed this tax revenue with general tax revenue, and
simply creates bonds which are passed on to the S.S. Fund. (Did you see the movie "Dumb and Dumber"? "It's all there,
every last penny, yes Sir!")

This is why the Federal Debt continues to grow - these S.S. Fund bonds are issued, and form part of the
"Non-marketable U.S. Debt".

So these Funds, we might say filched from Social Security, are counted as Tax Revenue and contribute to reducing the
Deficit and producing that mythical "Surplus". But at the same time, the Federal Debt grows by that filched amount.

But there is still another source of Government Spending, very important, which is not, however, included under Federal
Spending. This hidden government spending is paid for by BORROWING MASSIVELY. Where you say? The Federal
Debt is not going up that much?

That Government Spending is being carried out without causing much concern, through the absolutely enormous increases
in Borrowing and Spending by: the Federally Guaranteed Government Sponsored Enterprises, the GSEs like Freddy
Mac, Ginnie Mae and other silly-sounding gigantic financial organization which have taken over a very substantial part of
the mortgage market in the U.S., due to their real (or perceived) Government Guarantee, which makes their debt a proxy
for Government Bonds. See: Prudentbear.com for the horrible facts.

The GSEs are monetizing their debt, by placing it in "Money Market Funds". These Funds accept the "paper" or debt of
the GSEs without question, as Federally guaranteed, and credit the GSEs for their I.O.U.s with credit balances at their
Money Market accounts. Thus enormous increases in Money Market funds which people suppose are Dollars. These
"Money Market Funds" are not really Dollars, from the banking system. They are confused with those Dollars, but really
another "money" which people accpet unquestioningly. Who wouldn't like to have a few million in a "Money Market
Account"? You buy a house for a couple of million, what's the seller going to do with a couple of million? He's going to
put it in his Money Market Account, just where you got the money to pay him.

Once you are dealing with big enough figures, when you spend a "Money Market Account" balance, it is most likely that
the amount you "spend" will simply find its way to another "Money Market Account". And so the game goes on. I leave it
to another, to describe what happens when Money Market Fund assets begin to go sour because debtors - issuers of
commercial paper - cannot make good. Or when the rise in interest rates destroys the capital of the GSEs, and the
insurers or investors in interest rate derivatives, meant to protect the GSE borrowings, go belly up, or the U.S.
Government has to BAIL OUT THE GSEs. That will be a show!

If you add up the Federal Debt, with the debt of the GSEs, and add up on the other side, Tax Income and the Income of
the combined GSEs, you will have a sum - which I have not calculated - which will surely knock your socks off. (PS.- To clarify: Total Federal Debt= Federal debt + GSE debt. Total Revenue Income= Federal Taxes+ GSE Net Income. The amount by which Total Federal Debt grows in a year, is the REAL BUDGET DEFICIT. Expenses greater than income, the difference (deficit) made up by borrowing - which appears on the GSEs Balance Sheets.)

THAT is the real fiscal situation: no Budget Surplus, rather, a totaly outlandish Budget Deficit, financed with massive
government borrowing via the GSEs, which are off-budget.

Now, these GSEs are into mortgages, long-term loans by definition. When you see the yield on the 30-year Treasury
Bond begin to grow, you will know that the present value of the mortgages is decreasing - according what is known as the
"Bond Equation": an increase in yield on a bond means a reduction in its present value.

The GSEs have been working with razor thin margins and lending to ever less credit-worthy mortgagees. When the GSE
assets shrink, they will destroy all their capital and we will have a situation incomparably worse, disastrously worse that
the situation with the S&Ls.

The Fed can contain, to a certain extent, short-term rates, but it can do absolutely nothing about long-term rates, the rates
that are going to kill the GSEs.

Sit back, relax, and enjoy the show! It is going to be historic.

"If this be error, and upon me proved,
I never wrote, nor is my name

Sierra Madre"

Nibelung

(01/13/2003; 13:25:54 MDT - Msg ID: 94288)

are there any unhedged and "clean" gold mining stocks out there?

Dear Ladies and Knights of the Oaken Table,

I am mainly a believer in physical, and never previously considered owning any shares in mining companies. But the thought occured to me recently that I might learn something if I tried to find a "clean" gold mining company and maybe contemplate buying just a very small number of shares of producers.

If anyone can provide any suggestions of a few unhedged, "clean" gold mining companies that I might start researching I would be much obliged. Even if I don't invest in any, I feel I might at least learn something through this exercize.

Thanks, and best Regards to all the Golden people of the Oaken table. 2003 will be a golden year.

-Nibelung

sector

(01/13/2003; 13:43:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94289)

Shares Lagging Metal...

...The Next Metallic "Gap"We all want the HUI shares to move up. They aren't because (1) the hot money hopers pining away for the DOW and NASDAQ (2) They don't believe in the durability of this gold rally [Since Dec 4th] and (3) they are generally confused about things economic.

Time fixes #2. Information osmosis fixes #3 and The Hot money may not come back at all because their [Brokerage] puppet masters won't allow them to buy gold shares and also draw from Fed repo funds.

Actually, the Dollar Index Value of Gold hasn't leveled off since Dec 4th. Today will be another high. This metric is a direct gauge of the per ounce value of bullion sales used to cap gold. The G-10 central banker's "Fuel" meter. They are running way low these days after having spilled over half their reserves during the halcyon days of 1997-9 when everybody bought their "Barbarous relic" and "Goldilocks Economy" fairy tales. Not any more!

If one is worried that the enlightened central bankers will sell the remaining hoard of gold from the Western vaults, forget it. That remaining gold bullion is all that stands between Western Civilization and a Banana Republic paper "Avalanche" [kudos to 'Paper Av' for choosing a most descriptive handle].

BTW unleashing the central bank gold is problematic due to the lack of gold refining capacity. PAMP is the biggest at 400 tonnes per YEAR so forget about rapid processing of "Good Delivery" .999 finess bars [Most if not all the "Deep Storage" central bank bars isn't "Good Delivery" quality. This is a big bottleneck and a barrier to high throughput gold flowing to quench the white-hot physical market. More delivery delays mean a higher demand.

The remaining central bank gold, 16,000 tonnes, is all there IS for the West. They will invoke some sort of shell-moving-currency-game in order to attempt to make the gold last as long as possible. The only issue at hand is when they move. Whatever the plan gold-bugs will see through it in a flash unless it represents a true value currency mechanism. The result of a disengenuous effort by the Fed will be more gold drainage.

Quietly, the debt ceiling is [ooops!] now on the floor and Congress doesn't seem to be in a cooperative mood these days so THAT metric is coming into play too.

When the shares wake up there will be some catching up in order for them to revert back to a metal leading position, so look for 180-200 on the HUI as the Easter 2003 range.

The big move up will take all shares up because there are so FEW of them.

Hipplebeck

(01/13/2003; 13:49:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94290)

Aristotle

Only banksterthink could possibly be able to obscure what a gram of gold means,
What world do you live in?
Are you so messed up in your thiniking that you cannot understand what a gram of gold is?

Hipplebeck

(01/13/2003; 13:56:12 MDT - Msg ID: 94291)

spelling correction

thinking

Belgian

(01/13/2003; 14:09:53 MDT - Msg ID: 94292)

Miner49er / CoBra(too) / Chavez

Yes, housing means taxes and permanent re-valuation against permanent currency devaluation. This could certainly be applicated in a physical-only free goldmarket where one is holding permanent re-valuing Gold against permanent depreciating currencies. Building houses, means business as does free trade in Gold, when freely priced against offer and demand. Compare physical Gold here with the holdings of zero-bonds .

A free physical only goldmarket is as natural as can be, but did not fit into the dollar-concept. That's why it was prevented to happen...to develop. With the expansion of the euro, replacing the dollar, this public, physical only, goldmarket will be as "evident" as pure mountain water. Do we need evidence for the existance of an *official blueprint* for this ?

More than 20 years of stockmarket "exhuberance" were an ideal environment where the general public had the audacity to ignore Gold, whilst it was denigrated. This past 2 decades will be regarded much later as a period where Gold was repositioning itself as we in French say : reculer pour mieux sauter (2 steps back to jump much further).

Thanks miner49er for having finetuned the whole thing !

Sorry guys, but need some more insights on the Venezualan Oil-story. Oil cuts must affect pro-Chavez supporters, very hard as well ! Vox populi must eat something otherwise this will evolve into a civil war.

Aristotle

(01/13/2003; 14:20:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94293)

Thinking for Hipplebeck

The issue, my fine fellow, is not one of understanding what *IS* a gram mass of Gold.

The issue is one of mentally assimilating its value relative to all other things in mankind's world of commerce. Observations of supply and demand in the marketplace help us identify and assign relative value (not absolute value) to all things, including that of our money used in the trade.

Do not be so shallow in your own thinking that you ignore the impact that monetization of grams would have on the apparent supply of Gold available in the marketplace. Resulting from the efficiencies of banking and such simple concepts as lending, the apparent supply of grams available to chase goods and services would greatly exceed the tangible grams that truly existed. How then, would you calculate and utilize their "honest" value?

You accomplish nothing favorable in your blind haste.

Gold. A concept too simple for many to grasp effectively. --- Aristotle

cyberbat

(01/13/2003; 14:26:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94294)

@Aristotle

If gold were to circulate worldwide as money, what would you call it yourself. Everyone is familiar with a gram which would probably be the smallest denomination. So what would be your description be of one gram of gold as money? Keep in mind now that we are talking world wide.
I eagerly await your answer.
Cyberbat

Aristotle

(01/13/2003; 14:50:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94295)

cyberbat, I like where this is going. Thanks for stepping in!

"If gold were to circulate worldwide as money, what would you call it?"

A miracle!!!

But seriously, already we've come to a communication impasse.

Here's the problem -- as I see it -- put into terms that will help you to see this question through my eyes.

Suppose I were to pose this question to you:

"If barrels of oil were to travel worldwide as electrical energy, what would you call it?"

Now, if my hunch is correct, you know how the wording of your question has baffled me. Would you be kind enough to try another approach? I'm quite eager to have follow this line of discussion because its of vital importance and very, very relevant in the current era of the world with its euro.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Belgian

(01/13/2003; 15:00:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94296)

Sierra / ge

Yes Sierra, I do fully agree with everything that has already been said here, about Venezuela. But paralyzing such a vital oil-supplier for that long is confusing me.
This plays right into the cards of the Arabian part of OPEC.

Whereby I land by Sir ge...

OPEC-president : "Oil supply will be guaranteed" !? Yep, that is the enormous force of Arabian - abundant reserves - cheap - ever profitable - flexible flowing - high quality crude oil. What alternative energy source can compete against this number of aces in Arabian hand ? POO-policies, by OPEC, always take care that as less as possible competition should be able to stand up as to make them lose pricing and production power/hegemony. This ME oil-story can go on for another 2 generations (50 years) before any real alternative emerges on a massive scale. There is not only oil but masses of natural gas, also.

Sierra : One more worth about eventual Euroland Gold coins in circulation . Next year, it will be forbidden to make cash-payments of more than 10,000 euro ! All payments above this figure should be done through banking. We have 500 euro notes now. Is this an indication that those Golden Eurolanders might carry a very high euro-worth for a very little content of Gold ??? (High POG) ???

Yes indeed, those first issues of Gold-coins will meet the hoarding reflex. But this will fastly fade if and when a free physical goldmarket is back in vogue.

No this free goldmarket will NOT emerge overnight in its definite form but will rather develop progressively, proportionate to the growing impotence of paper and the bringing back of "financial" activities to normal growth levels.

A free Goldmarket can only emerge on top of financial ruins.
And today I still percept, concerted efforts as to postpone the crashing process that leads to ruins. There is a time for everything.

Aristotle

(01/13/2003; 15:01:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94297)

Perhaps, cyberbat, this phrase is okay for you?

"If Gold were to circulate worldwide as Gold Coins, what would you call it?"

I would call it Gold. Specifically, I would call it coins of Gold.

Furthermore, I would use all of my excess money (i.e., "excess" defined as the remainder after quarterly bills are paid and investments are considered) to buy these Gold coins to add to my growing pile of material savings -- a part of my life's meaningful wealth and security!!

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

ElGordo

(01/13/2003; 15:06:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94298)

@sierra madre

Free coinage of silver will save Chavez? How will the free
coinage of silver get the oil fields up and running?

Chavez is not a socialist? He is an ego maniac nut case is what
he is. If he cared about his country he would step down.
85% of the population is against his administration. His ego is telling him he is more important the the entire country!

Its not about democracy or the last election, he can make the
decision to step down like Nixon did.

Why did Chavez visit Saddam? Does he sponsor terrorists?

Your hatred of the US is making you paranoid. Nobody is paying
people to demonstrate and risk their very lives to bullets.

Who cares what you posted 2 years ago? You must have a HUGE
ego yourself!

silvercollector

(01/13/2003; 15:16:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94299)

sector

I love your confidence.

Why do you think Easter is GAP UP time for the HUI?

TIA

eddiebhoy

(01/13/2003; 15:16:59 MDT - Msg ID: 94300)

BP sells $1.3bn in oil assets to Apache

regarding the above post it seems that bp is selling off its mature assests in the north sea
also i have heard on the grapvine that the miller field and a few others are to be sold as well

now why are bp selling its old core assets?
why do they need the money at this point in time?

could it be for the development of some new fields
it is about to aquire in the near future?

also interesting is the fact that new smaller fields
that have been getting developed in the last few years
2000 - 2002 which has created a mini boom in the north
sea has all of a sudden been totally stopped dead
and a lot of oil workers laid off in the last few months
cant quite figure out that oil is $30+ a barrel yet
north sea development of new small viable fields has ground
to a halt

it takes $14 a barrel to get oil out the ground from the north sea but only $2 from iraq

is there a tie up here ?

eddiebhoy

Mr Gresham

(01/13/2003; 15:21:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94301)

miner49er

Good to see you here today and enjoy reading your thoughts.

balzac

(01/13/2003; 15:22:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94302)

DEBT IN TRILLIONS

@ChristianChristian,
Where did you get your debt figures.

Balzac

sector

(01/13/2003; 15:38:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94303)

@ eddieboy Good BP/Iraq Post

BBP is also a defendant in a pretty big NatGas Case in CalgaryIt's the largest Nat Gas field in North America [Outside Alaska] and BP might lose as the big Multi stomping the tiny, three person Canadian company. The case is in the Appellate Court. Raising cash may give them a settlement purse as well as "Iraq Concession" money. Canadian Southern [CSPLF] trades at $USD3. They, own 30% of the field--might get more in the courts.

@ silvercollector Why Easter for the Gap Up?

Any time from tonight through Easter hits right in the sweet spot of a host of gold positive indicators. Not the least of which is the G-10 is bleeding gold from an increasingly open wound. If the war starts later this week [Turkey's incursions in Northern Iraq may force the US hand to move on Basra first] then we can expect a $30-$40 move over night as the first of many G-10 stair steps up to a level that relieves them of further gold selling.

Higher gold prices is the only possible method that can save the central banks remaining metal. After all the years of Rubin/Greenspan created gold manipulation, the final arbiter is a free market.

Technical card-counters can weave their voodoo fibbonacci number magic all they wish, but the government Black Jack "dealer" has an unknown number of decks--so card counting is useless when playing the manipulated precious metals game. It works just fine in a two party trade just not in a three-party trade [(1)Shorts, (2)Longs and (3) the .gov goons].

Hipplebeck

(01/13/2003; 15:41:09 MDT - Msg ID: 94304)

ElGordo

If 85% of the people are against Chavez, how did he get elected?
There was a coup a few months ago, if 85% of the people are against Chavez, who set him free from the coup plotters?

CoBra(too)

(01/13/2003; 15:42:12 MDT - Msg ID: 94305)

Call it Gold - Coins, Bars, Nuggets, or any other Denomination

of weights as you wish - is it metric or the silly, antique pounds, ounces or paperweights ... what in your terms differentiates any measure from real value? ... Sir Ari!

I'm probably too simple a mind to understand your last two postings in their intrinsic meaning.

Humbly, I would ask to clarify your thoughts - thank you, cb2

Hipplebeck

(01/13/2003; 15:57:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94306)

Aristotle

I don't know why you want to complicate things.
You say you would use your "excess" paper money to buy gold coins because they hold their value. With gold as money, you would not have to bother with all that. You would simply set a little aside out of your earnings instead of having to go use paper to buy gold.
If gold was not mined into circulation fast enough, then it's value would go up, just as it is now. What you cannot get your mind past is that you cannot stop thinking in terms of paper dollars. You say you hold gold for it's wealth, yet you still measure it by it's dollar value. When you can uncomplicate your mind enough, you will begin to shed the baggage you carry. You will begin to see things as they are and not measured in paper dollars.

miner49er

(01/13/2003; 16:00:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94307)

Sierra Madre @ 94282 - Gold Euro Coins

Hi Sierra --

A few points regarding your reply:

---------
You say: "Any coin with any content of precious metal, be it silver or gold, will be hoarded. It will not circulate. Because people recognize that a 100 Euro gold coin with only 50 Euros gold content is far better than a 100 Euro banknote. People will hang on to these coins, as long as additional currency is fed to the public, by the Central Bank and banking system(s)" -------

If they do "hang on" to these coins, GOOD!! If you read my post, that is a perfectly acceptable, and designed outcome. These coins represent a small portion of the overall monetary issue, and the gold reserve base as well. They would then serve their objective of re-introducing gold to a population that is not accustomed any longer to gold. That would be excellent.

However, I have to take issue with you about the coins circulating. If the hypothetical coin (100 euros with 50 euros worth of gold at issue) is released, only a fool would hold onto it. Its purchasing power as legal tender is twice its commodity value. Insanity to hold it! If you want gold, by all means buy it WITH your 100 euro gold coin and get twice the gold for the money!!!

Yes, I agree, that if you have discretionary euros sitting around, you will likely spend the non-gold ones first. And, the average person may get the first couple from the bank, and set them aside as a curio. (Again, WONDERFUL!!) But if the average person trying to barely make ends meet gets a few of these, he IS NOT going to keep them all. He will use them to buy what he needs to live. If the next guy who gets it in change saves it, then great!

If the coin were not overvalued, then what you say is more true, and we enter the dynamics of the traditional gold standard. I.e., why use the coin when the same denominated paper gets me the same stuff at the store? (Even then, not everyone can afford to save all the coins they come upon.) But if in our hypothetical scenario, the same denominated paper gets me the same as the coin, but twice as much as the gold I might extract out of the coin, then the coins circulate just like the paper.

And regarding utility, if the paper is held to be stable at a given time, then it, or electronic transactions will be preferred over the coin for simple utility's sake. Only when the paper issuer is deemed irresponsible will the traditional gold standard cause coins to be lopsidedly preferred when a fixed exchange rate exists.

--------
You say: "Actually, the 100 Euro coin with 50 Euros gold content is OVERVALUING the gold" ------

No, the coin is overvalued in terms of gold. The coin is simply 100 euros legal tender. It is minted into a token coin, that just happens to be a rather valuable token. It is not overvaluing the gold. It cannot, gold is valued in terms of the market. The coin is not attempting to say that gold is now worth 100 euros for the contents that on the market is selling for 50. It is just a plain old 100 euro coin with a kicker...

--------
You say: "(50 of gold "equals" 100 of Euro)" -------

50 ?what? of gold. This coin has gold content equal to 50 euros at the market rate at time of minting. Currently (real ballpark estimate), with gold at approx. 330 euros / oz., there would roughly be, say, 5 grams of gold in this coin. (Didn't use the calculator, so bear with some margin for error, thx). Until the price in euros for gold reaches some amount that the public begins to prefer holding the coin, the coin, being overvalued, will circulate since there is NO good reason to save them, except as novelties. They are not even investments, so as to realize a future appreciating gold price... Why hold this coin when the coin can trade for twice the gold it contains on the market???

-------
You say: "Money that circulates is always OVERVALUED money. However, the 100 Euro bill is even MORE OVERVALUED, as here, .1 gram of paper "equals" 100 of Euro. So, the coin will be hoarded, the paper will circulate, because it is more overvalued." ------

Answered already.

--------
You say: "When the gold content of the 100 Euro gold coin exceeds its nominal, engraved value, either because gold goes up or the Euro goes down, or both, then...the coins will be purchased for slightly more than their nominal "100 Euro" value, and MELTED. So the people are "back to square one", again without gold coinage." --------

When the gold content reaches a point that the public prefers to hold them rather than spend them, then they will either hold them, or melt them into bars. They will be purchased then for their gold content, slightly more or thousands more -- that depends on the price of gold. The people are not back to square one. How? They are either holding the gold coins, or newly minted bars, as design has it. Either way, they still have gold. THE OBJECTIVE IS NOT TO RE-INSTITUTE A GOLD-STANDARD. THE OBJECTIVE IS NOT TO USE GOLD AS MONEY. The objective is to re-familiarize the public with gold and use the monetary system as a vehicle to re-introduce it to them -- AND do this by making people think the ECB is still playing along with the current gold paradigm where gold is stabilized at some amount we are soon approaching (i.e., just enough dollar devaluation to let off some steam).

How many of the average cube-dwellers, or burger-flippers, are even aware of how to buy gold? Start them off easy by putting it into a coin, that they DO understand, and let them, by choosing to use it or save it, gain some basic gold sophistication without even disturbing the banking system.

-------
You say: "The holders will have to suffer a heavy devaluation or miss a large rise in the price of gold, before this OVERVALUED gold coin begins to protect them from further deterioration in the Euro, or allows them to benefit from further rises in the price of gold. That 100 Euro gold coin, is A BAD DEAL." ------

Please, Sierra, READ what I wrote. I am not promoting a gold-standard. If I have a hundred euro fiat value, legal tender coin, that happens to contain, say 5 grams of gold of whatever proper fineness, that at minting and issue happened to be my hypothetical 50 euros of gold, then the owner of the coin, when gold goes to 500,000 euros an ounce, has these 5 wonderful grams of very valuable gold with what is now an immaterial 100 euro stamp on it. The coin now sells and is held as 5 grams of gold.

If gold goes through the floor, or stays where it is, he still has a stronger fiat piece of legal tender. How does the holder lose???? I say it's frankly, A GREAT DEAL!

-------
You say: "The solution to the conundrum of perpetual gold coinage, lies in NO NOMINAL VALUE, and its usefulness can be enhanced, to use Belgian's term, by having its daily value quoted in Euros, by the ECB, and having all banks exchange gold coin for ordinary bills and ordinary coins, at the quoted rate, with no discount." ------

Addressed already.

-------

Anyway, thanks for reading, Sierra... I hope I was able to clarify your questions.

Best regards,
miner

(btw... spot on with your #94155 the other day!)

Aristotle

(01/13/2003; 16:06:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94308)

Don't toy with me, CoBra.

A man of your caliber is up to the task of digesting this, my first-choice entree. In good faith would you have me bring out second-best from the kitchen?

Gold. It is what it is. --- Aristotle

mikal

(01/13/2003; 16:13:22 MDT - Msg ID: 94309)

@cb2, Aristotle

With all due respect, this naming process is actually a two step process. One is very serious, official and financial. Like Aristotle's coins or digital units. Another is informal, flexible and localized, even down to the individual level. You must always have both names- the official birth name used in transactions, and the nickname, surrogate or pet name which identifies the owner's relationship to his/her wealth/savings/property.
The rock star Steve Miller was heard singing: "I want to fly like an Eagle until I'm free."
For the nostalgic or traveling sort, Doubloons or Sovereigns would fit. If I lived Downunder, Kangaroos, though they're called Nuggets officially. Soros, Gates, and Buffett might like Nuggets and Paperweights. Bars are ok too. But for the little people like Polly the parrot, Wafers are just fine.

Hipplebeck

(01/13/2003; 16:18:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94310)

Belgian

The people who have cut off the oil in Venezuela are the elite who are in control of the oil business. There is a small group, including the union bosses who have been bleeding off the oil earnings. They pay themselves huge salaries and skim off profits. Why shut down the cashcow? They are desperate and have done this in an attempt to force everyone into hardship, because their coup did not work. Why are they desperate? Because Chavez has vowed to take their power away from them and put the oil profits into the state coffers instead of the oil elites pockets. He has also vowed to take land that is not being utilized out of the hands of the rich and distribute it among the people.
There is a minority of European heritage light skinned people who control most of the wealth. The vast majority in Venezuela are poor indigenous indians or blacks/mixed left over from the slave days.

misetich

(01/13/2003; 16:20:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94311)

G10's George: 'Extremely Conscious' Of Global Economic Risks��Jan 13 / 8:41 EST

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1042465260000&sn=1&banner=mainwireSnip:

BASEL, Switzerland (MktNews) - G-10 central bankers are "extremely
conscious" of the downside risks to the world economy and will need to
remain highly vigilant and respond to developments if needed, Bank of
England Governor Eddie George said Monday as spokesman for the group
after their regular meeting at the Bank for International Settlements.
In particular, George told reporters, the G-10 are concerned about
the impact of a possible war in Iraq. A failure of the U.S. economy to
recover this year as expected poses the other major risk, he said.
In other comments, George said that he and his colleagues did not
discuss foreign exchange rate developments at length. Nor did they dwell
on global oil prices, he said, adding however that OPEC's decision at
the weekend to lift production to offset shortages caused by Venezuela's
general strike was a "positive" development.
According to George, the G-10 still expect "relatively slow" world
growth in 2003, with activity "likely to pick up as we move on in the
year." Despite hopes for "steady improvement" in the world economy in
the course of 2003, there are "downside risks and uncertainties," he
warned.
"We need to be extremely vigilant and be able to respond if risks
begin to crystallize," he said, admitting that, for now, policymakers
remain rather helpless with respect to the Iraq crisis.
"There is not a great deal one can do to anticipate that kind of
risk," George said, adding that the G-10 would react to the outbreak of
any war "as it happens." The uncertainties hanging over the global
economy and markets from the Iraq situation are "huge," he said, adding
that the consequences of active hostilities would depend very much on
how the war developed.
George acknowledged that the markets appear to be discounting the
possibility that a war will occur but that it will be short-lived. If
this were to occur, it would remove uncertainty rather quickly, which
would be positive for the global economy. But he warned of the
possibility that a U.S. attack could "degenerate" into a broad-scale
conflict that would usher in a "totally different scenario."
"But that's nothing one can sensibly speculate about," he added.
The other main risk facing the world economy is that the U.S. won't
see "moderate, relatively steady" growth, as now assumed, George said.
"What if the global economy does not move on as expected - if U.S.
doesn't grow as expected?" George asked rhetorically, noting that growth
in the euro area is expected to be more sluggish than in the U.S. -- but
reaching trend potential by the end of 2003 -- and is expected to be
even weaker in Japan.
In that context, he said, the G-10 discussed the general need for
structural reforms to boost economic growth - and not just in Europe.
"We discussed the importance of structural reforms for everyone,
not just for developing countries, but for developed countries too," he
said. "Everybody agreed that it is tremendously important. This is key
to the longer-term impact on confidence, particularly in relation to the
euro zone."
George held open the prospect that the ECB might have to cut
interest rates again, but not immediately, if the economy disappoints.
There is already an "ample" supply of liquidity in Europe, but if the
recovery turns out to be slower than expected, "then we need to ensure
that monetary policy remains accommodative," he said.
"I don't think there was any kind of immediate sense that [ECB]
monetary policy needed to become more accommodative," George continued.
"But if the expansion of the world economy was even more sluggish than
assumed in our central view, then we [would have to act] to ensure that
monetary policy remains accommodative."

***********

Misetich

The Fixers, Powerhungry monsters are sweating - Their egos are being squashed!

Got gold?

Posted in its entirity for educational and fair use only

mikal

(01/13/2003; 16:24:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94312)

Correction

"Kangaroos, though they're called Nuggetts officially." This is imprecise. There are BOTH official names, though the Nugget was made only from 1986- 1988, replaced by the Kangaroo the following year.

Bulldog

(01/13/2003; 16:33:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94313)

gold = ?value

This current discussion (Ari et al) leaves me a little baffled. I would hope that in the future gold is its own standard. How many $U.S. dollars do you want if the dollar is not as readily accepted as it is now?
This past summer I was looking at buying a boat. We negotiated using the means of payment my gold coins. In the end, I decided against parting with my gold.
IMHO, I do not think there will be any actual gold or silver available for purchase by the time J. Dines' mass psychology sets in.
I was buying some wine at the local liquor store and the owner who is a Sikh, has a gold ring (pure gold) and as we get into discussions of world events, I asked him if he bought gold and he said it is the wealth of his family that is passed on to each generation. In his eyes, gold is gold, it is his wealth as it is mine.
In my opinion, those who are always looking for a value of an ounze of gold are in it for the short run. Sell and buy back on pullbacks.
I prefer to simply acquire both gold and silver and I keep no records to see what my dollar cost average is. If I should ever have to dispose of my metal, it will be for a very good reason and hopefully it will be like that bellboy who supposedly bought the hotel in the Weimar Republic for one gold coin.
Gold will have a different value to each of us. By the way, how many grams are in a one oz. Eagle?

Aristotle

(01/13/2003; 16:34:59 MDT - Msg ID: 94314)

Hipplebeck -- the curse of oversimplification

Put Gold aside for the moment, and let's see things as they truly are.

Of these dollar thingies that we all use in the marketplace -- this stuff that barbarians like me call "money" -- what proportion of these dollar things undergoing monetary use have real tangible bodies (yes, even if they are just paper,) compared to the portion that "exists" as a digital/ledger entry?

My point: What makes you think that physical grams as money will eliminate the artificial ledger supply any more effectively than the physical paper bills have?

To monetize a unit is to open the door to artificial expansion of its supply through the efficiencies of banking and derivative usage. To ignore this is to stick your head in the sand, and the tide is coming in. Specifically, to monetize Gold is to dilute its value as wealth property. You do so to your detriment and to mine. Where shall we seek refuge from inflation if our Gold, having been monetized as you wish, is part of the tide that is washing away our sense of value? Whatever outlet you suggest, then I say, "Why not let's monetize THAT thing instead!"

Gold. Get you some reality. --- Aristotle

misetich

(01/13/2003; 16:37:49 MDT - Msg ID: 94315)

Reality Check - US Trade Deficit to Soar in coming months

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=62&banner=mainwire_featuresSnip:

Almost all agreed that January promises a veritable deluge of
imports, prompted by backed up Asian cargo and a desire to bring in
Valentine's Day, Easter and spring merchandise prior to the Chinese
(Lunar) New Year on Feb. 1, when many factories in Asia close down for a
week, they say.
The trade deficit should widen in November and December, in part
because exports were given extremely low priority as cargo ships rushed
to make up for lost time and declined to load low-value exports. By
January, exports were back on track and cargo ships began to raise fares
substantially, they add.
"We haven't yet tallied December figures yet because of the
holidays but vessels coming in to the Port of Los Angeles are still
profiled," said Al Fierstine, the port's director of business
development. "They're coming in almost fully loaded at 85% to 90%, which
is unusual. It should have slacked off by now."
********

Misetich

Retail sales slowed down significantly in December - January hasn't been getting any better - inventory are rising - commitments (order backlog) are just being received due to port disruption -
SM and reflanists have priced in a good US economic recover (they have been doing so for the last 3 years with abysmal results)as the big bad bear destroys their illusions of a comeback -
Unemployment is rising - government debt out of control - SOS new debt ceiling -

How long will foreigners keep on providing financing? How much will the overvalued US $ depreciate - 10 - 15 - 20 - 30 - 40% -

Take your pick and follow the trend!

Got gold?

Got gold?

Hipplebeck

(01/13/2003; 16:52:28 MDT - Msg ID: 94316)

Aristotle

Now you are getting to the heart of it!

"artificial expansion"
"efficiencies of banking and derivative usage"
You can't artificially expand gold!
These terms are a complicated way of saying fraud!

Isn't fraud a crime? Now do you understand why I say this is organized crime intended to relieve you of your hard earned wages?

What is fractional reserve banking but fraud?
Why do we have all these problems? Fraud!
It's fine to use digital gold or paper gold, but ONLY if that digit or paper is a reciept for the real thing.
To issue without backing is to defraud someone.

Arcticfox

(01/13/2003; 17:05:11 MDT - Msg ID: 94317)

Luv it...be nice if this would actually work..lol...

The letter to a bank below is an
actual letter sent to a bank in the United States. The bank manager
thought it amusing enough to have it published in the New York Times.
***********************************************
Dear Sir
I am writing to thank you for bouncing my check with which I endeavored
to pay my plumber last month. By my calculations some three nanoseconds
must have elapsed between his presenting the check and the arrival in
my
account of the funds needed to honor it. I refer, of course, to the
automatic monthly deposit of my entire salary, an arrangement, which, I
admit, has only been in place for eight years. You are to be commended
for seizing that brief window of opportunity, and also for debiting my
account by $50 by way of penalty for the inconvenience I caused to your
bank.
My thankfulness springs from the manner in which this incident has
caused me to rethink my errant financial ways. You have set me on the
path of fiscal righteousness.

No more will our relationship be blighted by these unpleasant
incidents,
for I am restructuring my affairs in 2002, taking as my model the
procedures, attitudes and conduct of your very bank. I can think of no
greater compliment and I know you will be excited and proud I have
noticed that whereas I personally attend to your telephone calls and
letters, when I try to contact you, I am confronted by the impersonal,
ever-changing, prerecorded, faceless entity which your bank has become.

From now on I, like you, choose only to deal with a flesh-and-blood
person. My mortgage and loan repayments will, therefore and hereafter,
no longer be automatic, but will arrive at your bank, by check,
addressed personally and confidentially to an employee at your branch
whom you must nominate. You will be aware that it is an offense under
the Postal Act for any other person to open such an envelope.

Please find attached an Application Contact Status which I require your
chosen employee to complete. I am sorry it runs to eight pages, but in
order that I know as much about him or her as your bank knows about me,
there is no alternative.

Please note that all copies of his or her medical history m ust be
countersigned by a Notary Public, and the mandatory details of his/her
financial situation (income, debts, assets and liabilities) must be
accompanied by documented proof.

In due course I will issue your employee with a PIN number which he/she
must quote in dealings with me.. I regret that it cannot be shorter
than
28 digits but, again, I have modeled it on the number of button presses
required to access my account balance on your phone bank service.

As they say, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Let me level
the playing field even further by introducing you to my new telephone
system, which you will notice, is very much like yours.

My Authorized Contact at your bank, the only person with whom I will
have any dealings, may call me at any time and will be answered by an
automated voice service: Press buttons as follows

1. To make an appointment to see me.
2. To query a missing payment.
3. To transfer the call to my living room in case I am there.
4. To transfer the call to my bedroom in case I am sleeping..
5. To transfer the call to my toilet in case I am attending to nature.
6. To transfer the call to my mobile phone if I am not at home.
7. To leave a message on my computer, a password to access my computer
is required. Password will be communicated at a later date to the
Authorized Contact.
8. To return to the main menu and to listen to options 1 through 7.
9. To make a general complaint or inquiry. The contact will then be put
on hold, pending the attention of my automated answering service. While
this may on occasion involve a lengthy wait, uplifting music will play
for the duration of the call. This month I've chosen a refrain from
"The
Best of Woodie Guthrie": "Oh, the banks are made of marble, with a
guard
at every door, and the vaults are filled with silver, that the miners
sweated for."

On a more serious note, we come to the matter of cost. As your bank
has often pointed out, the ongoing drive for greater efficiency comes
at
a cost which you have always been quick to pass on to me. Let me repay
your kindness by passing some costs back. First, there is a matter of
advertising material you send me. This I will read for a fee of $20 per
page. Inquiries from the Authorized Contact will be billed at $5 per
minute of my time spent in response. Any debits to my account, as, for
example, in the matter of the penalty for the dishonored check, will be
passed back to you. New phone service runs at 75 cents a minute. You
will be well advised to keep your inquiries brief and to the point.

Regrettably, but again following your example, I must also levy an
establishment fee to cover the setting up of this new arrangement.

May I wish you a happy, if ever-so-slightly less prosperous, New Year?

Your Humble Client,

(Name Withheld

Hipplebeck

(01/13/2003; 17:18:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94318)

Thanks Aristotle

I consider it an honor to exercise with you.
If the fencing is done properly, both swords are sharpened.
Thank you again MK for the forum that allows us to do it.

Christian

(01/13/2003; 17:32:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94319)

@ Nibelung - @ Balzac

Nibelung - We can't post possible stock reccomendations here. There is a + and - to this. To me it is a way to keep people ignorant, yet stock buying is gambling away your money. Find another forum and post that forum here. I would like to start a forum on picking good gold stocks. There is no such thing as a clean no hedging gold stock. Nobody knows what is in an off balance sheet transaction. -------- Balxac - Office of Comptroller of Currency and BIS can come up with some very good derivative value numbers on most states and the federal government. Derivative trades of credit creation swaps and debt swaps. BIS has helped me a lot about understanding the difference between commodity gold and credit creation gold. I had no idea that over 30,000 tonnes of credit creation gold trades yearly on the OTC as swaps. Keep in mind that credit creation gold swaps presently trade close to $10,500 per troy oz. Credit creation gold is monetary gold. Monetary gold = any precious metal that can be leased, sold on an exchange like the LBMA. Silver, because of its low price and to much bulk for the money is not considered a monetary metal. Rhodium is. Truth is the OTC is the biggest exchange as far as Dollar volume goes. Monetary metal backing of a currency does no good if the people can not use it as a way to store savings. Gold or any other precious metal in hand is the only true savings account.

Sovereign

(01/13/2003; 17:44:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94320)

Belgian--The ECB...

Belgian msg#94176

Dear Man,

You say that "the National Bank of Belgium is owned by the treasury and the public as publicly quoted at the Brussels stock market."

1) How can a bank (or any Company, for that matter) both be public AND private, as far as its policy-making agenda is concerned? The state of Belgium might own shares of this bank, but THE CONTROLLING INTEREST, as in who has most of the shares, is the de facto owner of the bank, no? Who has more than 50% stake in the NB, do you know?

2) How about the other banks (Germany, France)? WHAT DO YOU KNOW OF THE ALLEGATIONS THAT THE BANK OF FRANCE, THE BANK OF ENGLAND (JUST AS THE U.S. FED, FOR THAT MATTER), WERE CREATED AT THE BEHEST, AND FOR IMPLEMENTING THE ECONOMIC POLICIES OF, THE ROTHSCHILDS AND THEIR PARTNERS? Who the hell OWNS these SOVEREIGN ENTITIES? And, consequently, WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE THAT ARE ABOVE THE LAW (The actual owners of the banks in question)?

3) Now all these central banks are supposed to be independent, as in, INDEPENDENT OF THE POLITICAL WILL OF THE RESPECTIVE NATION THAT THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO BE THE CENTRAL BANK OF. This being the case, how can you even suggest that they belong to the people? Central Bank=Political and economic independence=Private AND Sovereign. No?

Regards

P.S. I am not anti-Euro. If I am going to hold cash, the Euro is better than the dollar. And the Swiss Frank is better than the Euro, for that matter ;.)

Sierra Madre

(01/13/2003; 17:46:45 MDT - Msg ID: 94321)

Right on, Bulldog!!

I share your philosophy 100%.

Grams in a troy ounce: 31.1082. One troy ounce is 480 grains and there are 15.43 grains in a gram.

Write it down.

Cheers

Sierra

Aristotle

(01/13/2003; 17:50:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94323)

Hipplebeck, then that's where it'll stand

But know ye that your cries of "Gold grams as money" will do nothing to redress your grievance from a uniquely personal viewpoint of banking as fraudulent. All it would do, in a sense, is to change the color of our quarters, dimes, nickels, and pennies.

Are you going to ask John Q. Public to give up his ability to contract for a home mortgage, a student loan, or a car loan? Banking as we know it is largely a mountainous feature on the landscape that is here to say, so you'd best get to dealing with it rather than trying to erode it away with your pissing and moaning.

Your arument that the mountain of modern banking is fraudulent really only has legs if something PHYSICAL like Gold is used as the denominating unit. Fortunately, our ability to comprehend relative value doesn't require a single fixed benchmark of ABSOLUTE value, so as things evolved our monetary currency unit isn't tangible, and therefore no fraud -- real or imagined -- need be addressed.

If you want real, honest value where it matters most, then buy Gold for your savings. That's what I do, but unfortunately guy's like you have spend the last century and a half hiding its real value behind your myopic views of money. Or should I say fortunately? After all, this legacy while it yet lasts is what has allowed me to amass quite a tidy mass of tangible wealth that wouldn't have been possible otherwise. Now it's just a matter of adding more as income allows and awaiting the time the physical market breaks free from the derivative illusions that obscure it's market value.

Understanding and acceptance. Get you some. --- Ari

Nibelung

(01/13/2003; 17:53:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94324)

@christian

Thanks for the insights regarding gold stocks. Thanks also for reminding me of the rule - it had slipped my mind.

Paper Avalanche

(01/13/2003; 17:59:58 MDT - Msg ID: 94325)

@ Ari

The most desirable combination of any two human traits is that of strength and humility. You have a Herculian intellect.

Humility - get you some.

Paper Avalanche

Aristotle

(01/13/2003; 18:08:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94326)

Hipplebeck #94318 I sure echo that, but I don't stop there.

I go it a step further than a verbal expression of thanks for the forum to MK by putting his people to work spinning my paper income into Gold. Offering thanks in a material way, doing decent business with decent folks. Know what I'm saying?

Thanks for the discussion, Hipster.

Gold. Don't just talk about it. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Pizz

(01/13/2003; 18:13:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94327)

Arcticfox

Thank you so much for the post of the bank letter. Believe me, I needed a good laugh today. My bank is right next door and they can't even pay themselves an automated withdrawal from my account when there is money there. . ..

When all the systems are so automated that even the simple things take forever to fix, if they ever do, I tend to wish we'd hurry up and get back to the barter system.

Too bad so much pain will be inflicted getting there.

Gold window still open for long odds on a short time frame, and a virtualy certainty for payment, whether prospering, surviving, or somewhere in between.

Pizz

Cavan Man

(01/13/2003; 18:28:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94328)

The poodle speaketh...

Politicians thrive on crises don't they (and we suffer)?Defiant Blair says UN has no veto on war
PM ignores party critics, telling Saddam to disarm or face force
By Andrew Grice Political Editor
14 January 2003

An uncompromising Tony Blair said yesterday he would refuse to allow the United Nations to veto military action to rid Iraq of its weapons of mass destruction.

The Prime Minister warned the public that Saddam Hussein's weapons posed a "direct threat" to Britain but angered his Labour critics by refusing to guarantee that any war in Iraq would have to win the approval of the UN.

Aristotle

(01/13/2003; 18:29:45 MDT - Msg ID: 94329)

Paper Avalanche . . .

Tall and clumsy.

Got it.

canamami

(01/13/2003; 18:36:40 MDT - Msg ID: 94330)

Thx for replies 94232-2, 94276, 94280

Re lease rates, I agree. If no one wants to borrow gold because the risk is too high, it stands to reason gold lease rates will be low.

Re breaching the $355.00 wall, I'm not sure. Widespread grassroots demand may very well do the trick. However, if the $355.00 wall is vital to the PPT, a vigourous defence will be made. Some big player may be needed to be the battering ram, in addition to the grassroots demand.

Paper Avalanche

(01/13/2003; 18:47:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94331)

Ari

Thank you for so quickly and effectively illustrating my point.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche

cyberbat

(01/13/2003; 19:13:52 MDT - Msg ID: 94332)

@ Aristotal

Think about this. When someone finally backs their paper with 100% gold , auditable by anyone, then all other paper money would disappear. Everyone would be buying the 100% gold backed money. Think about it. The Fed would disappear. No such thing as inflation or deflation. There would be no currency traders because everyone would have traded in their dollars, pounds, euros or whatever to get the 100% gold back standard; Everyone's money would hold the same value. Remember the old but true addage--good money chases out bad and that would happen. Be it in 100% gold backed paper or grams or ounces of gold; all would be accepted. Among this august body, if I came to you, Bulldog,Christain, Black Blade, etc. etc. and said may I trade my 1oz. U.S. gold coin for one of your 1oz. gold dinars or a 100% Gold backed unit marked 1 Oz. of redeemable gold, would you trade with me? The value would all be the same. There would be no profit on either side. One ounce for one ounce of gold, no matter in what form. The 100% gold backed paper could have the name of Bull frogs. I wouldn't care. Ah, tis so simple to eliminate global fraud by all banksters; that's why it will never come to pass until the sheeple wake up.

Peddler

(01/13/2003; 19:26:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94333)

Gold poised for a drop

Gentleman, I have read two different articles stating that with the quantity of "shorts" Gold is set for a big drop.
Your thoughts!!!
The Peddler

Cavan Man

(01/13/2003; 19:33:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94334)

Hi Peddler

Buy as much now as you can understand. I recommend a great big plate of physical but some jrs for spice and leverage are nice. Good luck.

miner49er

(01/13/2003; 19:34:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94335)

Correction - 94271

Mea culpa... In three (count 'em, THREE) of four references to over-valuation, I (it's the drugs...) used for some inexplicable, and stupid reason "under-valued."

My 1st reference was correct. Don't ask me why I used the other term after that. I don't know.

All 3 references to "under-valued" should read as "over-valued." So for anyone who has bothered to read, my apologies for the confusion.

Truthcaster

(01/13/2003; 19:40:34 MDT - Msg ID: 94336)

Re: Peddler. Golds Drop?

Is gold poised for a drop? My thoughts are that
gold still looks bullish, but it's having a hard
time getting over the 355 hump. Friday we was it get
pushed down and then came back to unchanged by the
ending bell, same goes for today we had gold down
well the most I saw it down today was about 4 bucks
and I thought Oh here we go but again by the bell it
had clawed it's way back up to near unchanged. It's just
my thought but I remember back then gold was trying to
climb over the 330 level that for weeks and weeks it
got turned back again and again. So I think that gold
needs to build more of a base here at 354 and will most
likely fall back 10 bucks or so before running up again
and we just might be right at that point. Now with North
Korean crisis looking like it might be calming down somewhat
and the overseas stocks rising tonight, gold might be going
to head south in the next day or two. I guess time will
tell. But with the dollar weaking like it is I think it
will be short lived.. My two cents...

silvercollector

(01/13/2003; 19:52:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94337)

Everyone must relax on this 354 business.....

...it took a couple weeks shy of 6 months to clear 330!!

We've seen 354 since Dec.18, not enough a month. We will clear this threshold in due time.

Aristotle

(01/13/2003; 20:12:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94338)

Cyberbat, your home is your castle, and I want it

Let's say I want to buy your castle, payment in Gold!!

Because the Fed has so conveniently disappeared as a result of action taken in your latest post to me, the terms of the purchase price and payment will be between just you and me -- no bankers involved whatsoever. Hurrah! God save the Queen! Long live the President!

Let's say I open the trunk of my car and start counting out Gold Sovereigns. At some point, we may both conclude that a fair swap of value will be taking place, and it's at that point that we conclude our deal and we part ways, each one of us fully satisfied with our transfer and transition of wealth.

Any onlooker could easily judge the value of the deal -- the house, the Gold -- by assessing the size of the pile I removed from my trunk. An incremental education for all of us on the relative value of Gold and your house.

But wait just a minute. That's barter.

To fully appreciate the impact of the "money-izing" of Gold, we've got to have a look at an alternative approach to this deal.

Fortunately, the Fed is still out of the picture, so without a bank to function as a payments intermediary, this example will bring things right out into the open as you must stand in for the traditional role played by the banker.

I roll up to your house on my environmentally friendly bicycle, and I whip a Gold Sovereign out of my back pocket as a show of good faith. "Hey, buddy, I'm interested in buying your house."

"But you see, I've only got this one to give you right now. However, lookie here, you see. I'm Mr. So-and-so, here's the income stream from the dividends and coupon payments from my stock and bond portfolio. I'm also the owner of the town hardware store. See, here's all the books for the past 20 years, showing a comfortable profit for each and every quarter. I also hold a patent, and here are my past and projected earnings for that, and these are the typical royalties I still get for my #1 Grammy-winning song."

Since my ability to pay over time isn't in question, and since you are eager to sell your house but haven't had anyone else roll up either credit-worthy or with a trunk full of Gold, you decide to draft up a binding contract with me -- a Gold payment plan for your house.

For thirty years.

To get you to move your family and furniture (yes, and Spot, the dog) out and hand over your keys to me, how much Gold would my monthly payment need to be, and how much would I monthly be willing or able to afford? Then, if we multiplied that amount of Gold by the 360 installment payments, would the resulting purchase price of your house ultimately be found to compare similarly, higher, or lower than the lump sum purchase price "discovered" in the first example?

Let me save us all some trouble. ALL historical experience shows that the in toto installment price is greater than the lump sum price.

So, what then does this second MOST COMMONLY PREVAILING example impress upon our onlooker (and ourselves) about the relative value of Gold and your house? The incremental education we all get is that Gold-as-money (for payments) is seen to be worth not as much as Gold-as-property (for barter.)

Multiply this experience and incremental education times all of the transactions in all of the world that involve installments, and it is there that you should begin to see and understand the way in which the value of Gold is obscured when used *AS* the monetary agent. Banks or no banks.

But we'll always have banks, thus the obscurity of Gold value is compounded more quickly and efficiently, even if not maliciously.

Gold is tangible, portable property. Let money compete for it just like it competes for houses and other things, and only then will we truly be able to judge Gold's incredible intrinsic value in the lives of all men, all of us would-be kings.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Cometose

(01/13/2003; 20:28:02 MDT - Msg ID: 94339)

IF GOLD FALLS

I suspect a lot of planning has gone into the ultimate rise in the price of gold ....and It appears that many of these events are being timed.....with as much precision as possible.......Let us see what silver does this week.

I'm really ignorant of much of the technical and fundamental issues related to this market......and am therefore so very thankful for the more informed and esteemed knights and ladies here here at the forum...and to our host ...

For part of my professional life I have spent much time assessing weather patterns.....and I can often assess accurately when we are going to have a storm and when there is not enough moisture.....in the clouds....wind , cool , etc.

I have been following markets for years: gold and stocks....
and done a lot of observation....following those markets...
and the data related thereto
at some time after observing enough data , we can become like baromerters and develop a feeling about the evidence...

I've never witnessed the amount of volatility that we have now.... there's something going on out there(priceactions etc ).....that all the information we have coming to us is confirming (fundamentals).........I've also never felt this calm in the face of these type of dynamics.

In light of the above , I will add , that we all may have been preparing for this occasion , the opportunity/ feast/
competition , race (call it what you will) all of our lives. Be patient and enjoy this ....every day ..

People that don't watch this stuff or pay attention...won't see it coming...because they are looking at something else...

but in the unlikely case that GOLD does go down ......
we should all take advantage of the lower prices and perhaps do what MR SINCLAIR suggested and BUY PHYSICAL

WE OWE IT TO OURSELVES...to get it cheap as often as our understaning indicates...

Aristotle

(01/13/2003; 20:37:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94340)

Miner49er, good show. Don't sweat it.

Having read the first "OVER-valuation" I could see your meaning and the validity of your thought. Then as I eagerly followed along with your commentary, my eyes must have sent a message near to "#####valuation" which my brain sure-footedly decoded according to your original intentions. Magical, huh?!

Rock solid thoughts. If you're not in the business, your talents are surely underutilized. Hell, who am I kidding. They'd still be underutilized WITHIN the business, if you follow me. Politics and all. You'd do better than most, though.

You'll be pleased to know something that Aragorn III had demonstrated out of the shadows for me: some few years ago the euro-hopeful Republic of Latvia effectively introduced a Gold coin modeled closely in spirit to the blueprint you laid out today. With a brief exception in May/June, only within the past month (December) has the market value of the Gold content finally and decisively risen to eclipse the coin's LAT100 face value.

Sends a message as clear as you'd like to see!!

Your thoughts are on rails and at speed. Keep at it!

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Liberty Head

(01/13/2003; 20:51:28 MDT - Msg ID: 94341)

The Great Gold Debate Rages On

18k Gold Light, tastes great.
Now, I know some may say it's less filling, but I say,
it tastes great.
Anyone want to argue with me? :-)

All in fun.
Cheers

ElGordo

(01/13/2003; 21:01:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94342)

@Hipplebeck

Why are you such a supporter of Chavez? He is destroying
Venezuela. The percentage I quoted was a recent estimate.
The poor are turning against Chavez. The economy is crashing,
no jobs, inflation, strikes. When you can't govern a country you
should step down for the good of all the people. It is not just
the oil industry on strike.

If you lived in a socialist paradise you would not be allowed to
own gold. In Cuba common people have to hock their family heirlooms to buy baby formula so their daughters don't have to prostitute themselves to tourists for money to buy food. Meanwhile the communist elites shop in exclusive stores where they can buy
all the capitalist toys like VCRs.

cyberbat

(01/13/2003; 21:10:22 MDT - Msg ID: 94343)

@Aristotal

All that you have proposed would make sense except for one small but important fact. A thousand years ago, they managed to do it that way, I might add without computers. I would presume that a good interesting study could be made concerning "When Gold was money" thousands of years ago.
Buy my house---30,000 Bullfrogs. Don't have the money. Pay me over time, but the cost will be more. How much more? Why the prevailing rate of buying property over time with gold.When the man walked up to you and saw all the gold you had counted out to me for my house; he could have just as well said you got a good deal! My house was just like his and I sold it last week for for 2 inches more gold than you paid!!
This could go on infinitum but one thing I'm sure we agree on--"Gold, get you some(fast)!!
Cyberbat

ElGordo

(01/13/2003; 21:16:40 MDT - Msg ID: 94344)

Why Gold is gaining in a World Awash in US Dollars

http://www.thescotsman.co.uk/business.cfm?id=43182003In truth, the monetary system only works when there are willing borrowers and willing lenders.

In an attempt to boost money supply, the Fed may aggressively buy Treasury Bonds from the banks, thus forcing down long-term interest rates and leaving the banks with vast sums of cash to do with what they will.

But, if banks customers do not wish to borrow then this "cranking of the printing presses" by the Fed may have no impact on economic activity. Remember, this is the first time since the 1930s that the US has slumped because the cost of capital during the "bubble" was so low as to trigger excess investment.

Thus, cutting the cost of capital (interest rates) is unlikely to bring about a recovery in investment. Only a sustained resurgence of demand will, and if the consumer has also "over-spent" in the bubble, and now needs to reduce indebtedness, low interest rates will have a minimal impact on demand.

The European Central Bank, obsessed with monetary stability, seems determined to plunge Euroland into depression. Nothing could be more inappropriate than the current proposals to raise taxes and cut public spending in Germany and France to reduce budget deficits and comply with the totally ridiculous fiscal Stability Pact.

The Fed, by contrast, is prepared to think outside the box. Ben Bernanke, a recent arrival at the Fed from the academic groves of Princeton, has declared that the Fed will do all within its not inconsiderable powers to "print" its way out of trouble before deflation becomes entrenched.

We should not underestimate the efforts that will be made to prevent deflation. With the US trade deficit nearing 6 per cent of GDP, the US is already pumping out so many billions of dollars that it needs to attract about 80 per cent of all the world's savings just to maintain the value of the dollar.

With US interest rates already lower than those in Europe, and US share valuations still close to historic bull market highs, attracting capital flows into the States is becoming mighty onerous, further pump priming will only add to the difficulty.

The dollar has been able to remain fundamentally and seriously overvalued for years because the rest of the world was gullible enough to believe that the US economy would always outperform and thus its bonds and shares deserved a premium rating. Some 75 per cent of central bank reserves, plus a great deal of non-US private wealth, is held in US dollar assets.

Now that the Fed has declared it will "print" as many dollars as it takes to combat deflation, holders of US dollar assets would have to be extraordinarily na�ve not to realise that an unlimited increase in the supply of US dollars means dollars will inevitably be worth less.

Thus, far from attracting the 80 per cent of world savings required to maintain the dollar's value, fear of the bomb bays being opened and the world being showered in paper dollars is likely to cause liquidation of dollar investments.

In a deflationary world every country thinks its currency overvalued and, although the demise of fixed exchange rates has removed "beggar-thy-neighbour" competitive devaluations, if countries resort to the printing press to try and avert deflation all of their currencies become debased.

There is one standard against which this debasement of currencies can be measured and one asset which investors can own to protect themselves: That standard and that asset is gold.

Cometose

(01/13/2003; 21:27:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94345)

@Peddler

The open interest is a measure that is associated with the amount of contracts open on a future month on a commodity...
Larry Williams has taught (and when he grew up in the commodity markets there was probably very slight manipulation of these markets) that Commercials who are the participants in commodity markets that actually utilize the commodity in the finished products they produce....(general mills /wheat...General motors/steel... Nestle/cocoa
Starbucks /coffee...Electronics-computer/silver...etc) usuallly move these markets and can anticipate what their demand is and establish demand when necessary and therefor move markets.....He has stated that when Commercials open up more short positions...it indicates that the price is going to fall.....and that when they close their short positions and therefor open interest falls the commodity will rise.......THe size of their moves moves these markets (commodity markets) THere is a big difference in this particular market....there is no Commercial sector here in the GOLD market that uses gold supply portion of a fabricated end product save jewlers perhaps.....So gold is the finished product and the commercials in this venture are bankers....I was keeping data on this before I knew how to get in on the internet and since . I don't know if you can access arechive information from the CFTC re: Commitment of TRADERS REPORT...However , I recogize that between 60 and 90 thousand contracts used to be the high end of the swing and that that has consistenly risen since the last 2 years and remained extremely higher than the norm for years past. From the last week in 98 to the first week in Sept 99 , the range in the Commercial longs in open interest was 101000 to 141000 contracts...In the same period the range of the Commercials short positions was
60000 to 90000 contracts ....from my own recordkeeping of the CFTC figures....If I remember correctly , these are the months just prior to the Washington agreement...

I think if one takes a closer look...the dollar topped out in March of 2002 and perhaps prior to that and since the Open interest has been extremely high on the SHORT Side relative to the COMMERCIALS... and GOLD has been moving up ever since.....but more recently in the face of the huge Commercial SHort Position....gold moved through 320 to the current level of 355..........

THere are many in the world financial chess game that are very aware of the feds manipulations and the meanings of these COmmercials open interest figures etc....
TWO CAN PLAY THE PAPER OVER THE PRICE GAME IN THE FUTURES MARKETS >........In the gospel according to Larry WILLIAMS ...it is the small time speculators that usually are always wrong and time the market in such a way as to lose to the COMMERCIALS who are believed to move these markets......

FOr every SHORT position that has been opened on the COmex in the gold market...there is an opposing long position...
WE don't Know who all the longs are who have sat down accross the table from the COMMERCIAL Shorts....Neither do the COMMERCIALS.......if they could see the faces of those who took the other side of these futures contracts....they might not have taken out such a large position.....in the short side of this market...The identity of these longs may also have something to do with the interesting price action/lowered ranges and higher floor...
there are people out there that have the type of dollars required to move these markets and turn this up turn into a self fulfilling prophecy stampede..... One quoted last week that 612 milllion dollars was required to move the gold market a 40% move last year...(may have just been refering to the Miners stock valuations...

People at times like this also make mention of the overbought status of markets .....sometimes reflected in Williams PER Cent R (data chart study- when it is on the high side represents overbought on low side represents oversold) In a bull market....in a commodity such as GOld , the commodity can stay in the overbought range on the chart for months)

These are interesting times we live in....THe specs buying against the SHort Commercials could be an army of CHINESE or ISLAMIC Faithful wantng delivery to finance who knows what....Larry says they are speculators who usually don't know what they are doing....in this scenario It could be they are other commercials (CHINEse/ Islamics/ Japanese)
;in speculators clothing.... Trojan HOrse might be a good illustration.

Cytek

(01/13/2003; 21:36:34 MDT - Msg ID: 94346)

Russia sending missile-armed ships to protect Gulf interests

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/topstories/story/0,4386,165850,00.htmlI was wondering when this would happen, Russia has been much to quiet. You know when an Official naval spokesmen refuses to comment, then somethings up. So Russia has now put the U.S. in Check. The chessgame continues, what's the next move,checkmate? Cytek.

MOSCOW - Russia is preparing three naval vessels for a long-term mission to the Persian Gulf within the next month to protect its 'national interests' in the event of an American invasion of Iraq.

The move could heighten tension between Moscow and Washington - both having interests in Iraq's oilfields - and comes at a time when the United States is doubling the size of its troop deployments to the Gulf region.

Sources in the eastern port of Vladivostok said yesterday that the anti-submarine ships Admiral Panteleyev and Marshal Shapo- shnikov - which are armed with missiles and reconnaissance equipment - were to leave for the area, escorted by a tanker, in the first few days of next month.

Their six-month mission, the longest by Pacific Fleet vessels in the past 10 years, would aim to 'observe the military situation in the region of a possible military conflict between Iraq and the United States', the sources said.

Russia, which has extensive economic interests in Iraq, is largely opposed to the use of military force in the stand-off between the US, which is supported by Britain, and Iraq over disarmament.

Lukoil, Russia's biggest oil firm, had its £13-billion contract (S$36 billion) with Baghdad to develop the West Qurna oilfield cancelled last month, reportedly after the Iraqi regime discovered that Moscow had been negotiating with Iraq's opposition.

According to The Observer newspaper, military analysts suggest that the defence of 'national interests' could also refer to the Russian military's desire to conduct surveillance on both sides during any conflict.

Official naval spokesmen refused to confirm the reports, although active preparations for a departure by both ships were visible from the quayside.

News of their likely deployment coincided with US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's order to about 62,000 more US troops to head for the Gulf region in coming days.

The movements make clear that the Pentagon intends to have sufficient force in place for an Iraqi war as early as the first weeks of next month, although the White House says President George W. Bush has not yet decided to attack.

Just hours after officials disclosed on Friday that Mr Rumsfeld ordered nearly 35,000 troops to ship out, he signed another order to deploy 27,000 more troops. Their actual departure will be spread out over this month.

Eventually, the size of the US force arrayed against Iraq could reach 250,000, but officials said any US attack could begin with 100,000 or fewer troops in place. --AP, AFP, Reuters

ElGordo

(01/13/2003; 21:38:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94347)

Since Greenspan: $6,250 new dollars for every new ounce of Gold!

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/home.cfmSince Alan Greenspan has been Fed chief, $6,250 new dollars have been created for every new ounce of gold. People were perfectly happy with this as long as the new money was going into the stock market. Nobody complains about inflation on Wall Street.

But now there's a problem. The boom on Wall Street is over. State governments are running huge deficits; New York says it will run short by $10 billion. California's deficit equals $1,000 for every man, woman, and child in the state. And the Federal government is beginning a large spending program - $600 billion over the next 10 years.

Meanwhile, Americans continue to buy more from foreigners than they sell to them - about $1.5 billion per day.

Getting the money was easy when the going was good. But now the going isn't so good...and the U.S. economy needs more money than ever. Government deficits have to be financed...as well as consumer spending.

Already, foreigners own 18% of all U.S. stocks and 42% of our treasury bonds. In total, they own as much as $9 trillion worth of U.S. dollar assets. Instead of adding to their U.S. dollar positions, a falling dollar suggests they're lightening up.

Trouble is, they might decide to lighten up a lot...and switch at least some of their money from the world's most recent currency of first resort - the dollar - to man's ancient currency of last resort - gold.

Black Blade

(01/13/2003; 21:58:06 MDT - Msg ID: 94348)

Iraq War May Cause Oil Price Surge, Harming Recovery

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APiKQBxUySXJhcSBX
Snippit:

Dallas, Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Gary Kelly, chief financial officer of Southwest Airlines Co., says he is trying to lock in prices for jet fuel deliveries because he fears they may surge on a sudden rise in the cost of crude oil. The combination of a U.S. attack on Iraq and a continuing halt in Venezuelan oil production could cause crude -- which closed at $32 a barrel Friday -- to soar, pushing the largest low- fare carrier's expenses up and damping demand for air travel, Kelly said. ``If crude goes to $50 a barrel, all bets are off,'' he said. ``If oil prices rose to between $40 a barrel and $50 a barrel, both the U.S. and the world economies would probably be in a heap of trouble,'' said Paul McCulley, who oversees $110 billion as managing director of Pacific Investment Management Company, the world's biggest bond fund. OPEC agreed yesterday at a meeting in Vienna to raise output quotas by 6.5 percent amid skepticism that member nations would be able to boost production by a targeted 1.5 million barrels a day to 24.5 million. Many analysts predicted the agreement would not cut prices by $2 per barrel as forecast by OPEC ministers. ``I would be surprised if the real barrels into the market would be anything more than 1 million barrels,'' said Nauman Barakat, head of the oil trading desk at Fimat International Banque SA in London. ``Every recession in the last three decades has been associated directly or indirectly with turmoil in the oil market, terrorism or war,'' said William Nordhaus, a White House economist during the Jimmy Carter administration who is now a Yale University economics professor. ``Concerns about oil markets in the context of war in the Middle East are not idle.'' In a worst-case scenario, in which Hussein would attack Israel with Scud missiles, set Iraqi oil wells on fire and sabotage other Middle Eastern oil facilities, the center predicts that prices may soar to $80 a barrel, then edge down to $60 and $50. In 2004 under these assumptions, prices may average $40 a barrel. Even $30-a-barrel prices would squeeze the major economies if they remained in effect very long, raising costs for businesses and consumers and leaving less for profits and disposable income.

Black Blade: The increase of 1.5 million "phantom" bbl of oil should be interesting as OPEC has already been cheating on quotas and the only spare capacity lies with Saudi and even that is probably below the increased quota. I have been listening to the financial media primates lately and it's really a hoot. They are of the opinion that the strike in Venezuela will end before the end of the month and that a quick victory over Iraq is assured. The Venezuelan oil fields have been idle and will require several weeks if not months to bring them back into production so there will be no quick flow of oil from the south once the strike ends (if it ends). The reasoning that Iraq will quickly supply oil once the invasion begins is equally flawed. The first war in Iraq was at a time when there were ample supplies in storage and plenty of production from OPEC and non-OPEC producers. However, today we have an oil shortage and OPEC is producing at near capacity not to mention the declining production in the North Sea (already past peak production). Another important point is that world oil consumption is roughly 20% greater today than a decade ago. We may have difficulty counting on Russian oil too it seems as recently China has bid on rights to Russian oil as they too are a net importer in need of greater quantity. Today Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Research and Pulitzer Prize winning author of "The Prize: The Epic Quest For Oil, Money & Power" said that even with the OPEC quota increase the margin of spare oil is very thin at best. The price of oil may decline when the invasion begins but when reality sets in it is more likely to remain near current levels or even rise. There will be no economic recovery � at least not this year.

Black Blade

(01/13/2003; 22:25:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94349)

The cash-out crunch

http://www.freep.com/realestate/renews/refie12_20030112.htm
Many refinancers are unwisely draining their home's equity

Snippit:

A growing number of experts worry that the record rush of mortgage refinancings, spurred by home owners seeking savings with lower interest rates, actually left many in worse shape financially. The culprit is cash-out refinancings -- when a borrower takes equity out of the home as part of the refinancing. In some cases, experts say, home owners are left owing more than the home is worth. Cash-outs exploded, fueled by rising home values and falling mortgage rates. Freddie Mac, the mortgage underwriter, estimates that during the past two years, more than half of refinancings have been cash-outs -- when the loan amount rises by more than 5 percent. "It's easy to see how lenders and borrowers could abuse this source of cash," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com. Studies show that the chances of a mortgage default triple when borrowers increase their balances 20 percent or more. But higher fees may not be enough to dissuade home owners lured by the equity in their homes, whether they want money to put a new surround-sound system in the family room, pay off other debts or put food on the table after a layoff. The cash raised in such refinancings nationwide nearly quadrupled in two years, from $44 billion in 2000 to an estimated $172 billion in 2002. Economists say that cash boosted consumer spending that's remained strong despite the economic downturn. "This helps explain the miracle of consumer spending growth amid declining income levels," said John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service in New York. "If real estate values fall, refinancings could make matters worse. You'll find yourself running the risk of having an outstanding mortgage that exceeds the market value of your home."

Black Blade: A very good article. When the real estate bubble pops it is going to get very ugly as consumers who were beaten up during the speculative bubble on Wall Street went headlong into an overvalued real estate market. Now as this bubble pops they will get beaten up once again. As consumers have nothing left to deplete in order to keep up the spending frenzy the US economy will get hit hard. There are already cracks in consumer spending as witnessed during the dismal holiday shopping season. The growing "Bone Pile" has led to record foreclosure levels as over extended consumers can no longer make payments on their homes and are forced to pull in their horns on free wheeling spending habits. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

ElGordo

(01/13/2003; 23:03:19 MDT - Msg ID: 94350)

Japan still sinking

Tokyo, Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese machinery orders, an early indicator of business investment, unexpectedly fell in November as companies such NTT DoCoMo Inc. limit spending in anticipation of a slowing economy.

Machinery orders, excluding shipping and utility companies, fell 0.2 percent from October, seasonally adjusted, to 828.1 billion yen ($6.97 billion), the Cabinet office said. Orders had been expected to rise 1.8 percent, according to the median forecast of 26 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Business investment, which accounts for 15 percent of the world's second-biggest economy, fell 0.5 percent in the third quarter, limiting growth. Tax cuts for research and development planned for the year starting April 1 may not be enough to prompt companies to spend more, economists said.

``Capital spending will fall as the economy slows,'' said Mikihiro Matsuoka, a senior economist at Deutsche Securities Ltd. ``Tax cuts to businesses aren't really going to spur spending, as there just aren't companies that have the luxury to do so under current economic conditions.''

The No. 245 bond, which carries a 0.9 percent coupon and matures in 2012, rose 0.092 to 100.410 as of 2:24 p.m. in Tokyo. Its yield fell one basis point to 0.855 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

NTT DoCoMo Inc., the world's second-largest mobile-phone operator, said it would cap spending on new equipment next fiscal year at current levels because expansion wouldn't bolster its high- speed wireless Internet service.

From a year earlier, machinery orders fell 7.2 percent.

Trojan

(01/13/2003; 23:44:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94351)

Puplava Interview with GATA's Bill Murphy

http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Murphy.htmI really enjoy Jim Puplava's way of thinking. He did a Interview with Bill Murphy of GATA on January 11.

The Transcript of the Interview is in the Link above.

For those who haven't read it as yet it makes for Great reading because of Jim's questions, the way he sets it up. The responses and the graphs added to the transcript. A great interview IMO.

Trojan

(01/14/2003; 00:29:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94352)

Talk About Mind Boggling - Marshall Auerback

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0301/S00033.htmI just got this Article written by Marshall Auerback.

I had trouble believing it when I read it.

He surely is not timid with this one.

I would be very very interested if anyone reading it thinks the Plan is possible or feasible.

Maybe that's why the Russians are sending a Ship there as mentioned in a earlier post on the Forum.

Interesting Times Indeed...

Trojan

(01/14/2003; 00:45:35 MDT - Msg ID: 94353)

More On Auerback and Cytek's Post # 94346

Cytek posted about the Russian ships. There are three ships going. Not one. Post # 94346.

Here is a Snippet from the Auerback article:

How to solve this problem? What are Bush's real intentions?

Simple: construct a military plan in Iraq which achieves the objective of "regime change" and disarmament whilst concomitantly becoming a self-financing proposition. Occupy the Iraqi oil fields.

Forget about attacking Baghdad and dealing with the political fall-out of American soldiers being transported home in body bags. Enact the 21st century equivalent of a mediaeval siege.

A glance backward is the easiest way to see why oil and the dollar inevitably loom so large in any resolution of the Iraq crisis. The current configuration of the Middle East originates in the network of treaties and understandings that defined the post-World War I settlement of the broken Ottoman Empire.

That settlement was premised on the Russian Revolution and the exclusion of Central Asia from the world market for oil. The UK was initially the dominant power in the Middle East, but its imperial ambitions and concomitant control of these oil fields was ultimately superseded by the Americans under FDR since Roosevelt met with Ibn Saud in 1945 and Truman recognized Ben-Gurion's Israel in 1948.

Until recently, this imperial guarantor role has taken the form of a tacit quid pro quo between the region's lead producer, Saudi Arabia and America in which the former takes on the role of stabilizing the world oil market as the swing producer in OPEC, concurrently using its revenues (in part) to purchase American weapons (Saudi Arabia is the largest purchaser of American weapons, having bought some $39 billion worth in the 1990s).

The US in turn has provided tacit guarantees to safeguard the Royal Family, whilst turning a blind eye to the country's role in disseminating a radical form of Islam. However, in the aftermath of 9/11, the underlying tensions in this relationship, notably the Kingdom's persistence in upholding the tenets of a radical Islam, has upset the status quo and perhaps catalyzed the move to a different strategic paradigm on the part of the Americans, one which may entail an occupation of the oil fields and a siege of Baghdad.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/14/2003; 01:02:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94354)

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

Marie Ballard Ext 106

We look forward to your inquiry.

Trojan

(01/14/2003; 01:24:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94355)

So That's Where They Got Their Money :-)

http://www.prudentbear.com/marketsummary.aspWhat's left to Finance ? Way to Go, Easy Al :-)

Belgian

(01/14/2003; 01:27:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94356)

@ Sovereign # 94320

Much of my lilliputan opinion about CBs is derived from "The creature from Jekyll Island". Plus the observations of the NBBelgium.

I never bothered to know "exactly", "who" is "what" kind of owner of any CB, for the following reasons :

*ANY* CB or other official entity of that kind is a "Political Creature" ! And it is exactly the word "political" that says it all, whatever the ownership should implicate.

All those CB-faces (Greenspan/Duisenberg and all) do represent the dominating, ruling political faction behind them. The haute finance, *plays* those different political factions in time and at their alternating convenience.

What is our knowledge of the exact ownership of CBs going to change in our views of what really happens, systematically ? Do the excercise for any other official organisation like the "UN" for instance.

There are so much stubborn myths about "independance" of official organs ! One can have the reputation of being more or less independant...up until stronger political forces decide that on this or that point you will have to cut down on your independance...or....be sanctioned severely.

I am not in a position to produce "facts" about who rules the ECB or BIS. I'm a lilliputan, remember.
But when daily "observation" of evolving politics is a pleasure (hobby)...one can come to some conclusions as from where the strongest winds are coming.

This globe is increasingly living in a "political" economy !
More and more, the individual is giving his autonomy out of hands, to be managed by the political collectivity !
"Ownership" in such an environment becomes a very "relative" notion. A mighty reason for myself to hold on to the precious yellow ! That's really mine...in full possession...in full ownership...and hopefully, FREE soon from its past "political" mis-management!

Hipplebeck : Thanks for shedding some more light on Venezuela.

ElGordo

(01/14/2003; 01:58:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94357)

Hung Fat is Back!

Beijing, Jan 14, 2003 (XFN via COMTEX) -- The Shanghai Gold Exchange will extend the afternoon trading session to 15:30 local time from January 15, half an hour longer than the previous market closing time, the International Finance News said.

The Shanghai-based newspaper said the session extension is aimed at meeting increasing trading demand.

It said from January 15, the afternoon trading session will be 13:30 to 15:30 and the morning session will remain unchanged at 10:00 to 11:30.

In December, the exchange, which began formal trading on October 30, 2002, extended its trading hours in the afternoon session to 13:30 to 15:00, from the previous 13:00 to 14:00, at the request of some member companies.
_____________
Demand increasing so much in China they are extending the hours
for trading Gold! Silver starts later this year :-)

Trojan

(01/14/2003; 01:58:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94358)

Now We Know Why O'Neill Got Canned :-)

O'Neill assails Bush tax cuts Bloomberg, AP Bloomberg, AP

Tuesday, January 14, 2003

Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said Monday that President George W. Bush's plan to eliminate taxes on corporate dividends would do little or nothing to improve the U.S. economy.

"I would not have done it," he said, speaking out for the first time since being forced from his post.
O'Neill said some of the money from the president's $674 billion tax-cut plan would be better spent to shore up Social Security, the U.S. public pension system. (AP)

-----------------------------------------------------
Hey Paul, That's a Good Team Player. :-)

Belgian

(01/14/2003; 02:23:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94360)

The euro >>> dollar

The euro exch. rate spiking 0,5% against the dollar (and pound). Gold-POG in $ and � not YET compensating for dollar-decline.
May I draw the attention again on the fact that US-troops building up, consistantly, is resulting in a dollar-flight !!!

Why does this planet has to be completely *US and dollar*- oriented, in "ALL" its projections ? That question came up with me after careful reading of G10_E.George_BIS comments, posted by misetich # 94311 . Thanks Sir.

Printing dollar-confetti is the reason why this planet must remain dollar-oriented. We can even go to a risky war without economic/financial risk on the sole condition that Bernanke & Span, keep on printing...productively !
Global "political" economy and finance ! Amen.

Belgian

(01/14/2003; 03:15:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94361)

This morning : dollar - euro - gold

FWIW :

FX-dealers pushed euro exchange rate strongly up (0,5%).
Gold-fixing was lower 352,8 $/oz.
Euro loses strength.
Stock futures gaining.

Since it was not Gold (POG) that decided on the currency-exchange rate...FX-dealers must watch out for the invisible hand of CB-intervention (targets)?

Are we seeing some wrestling between the financial pirates and central banks having disputes about currencies and stock markets ? I do think so ? Political economy !?

Let's see how this plays out later in N.Y.

Topaz

(01/14/2003; 04:08:02 MDT - Msg ID: 94362)

Bonds and Gold.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Cfvxy%2Ctnxy%2Cgcg03.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=15&go.y=14Somebody! hurts bad above $354. If not JPM maybe Barrick is still under the Gun.
ZAR and Au$ still whupping SPOT - and Bonds (once again) begin their grind upward.
The Voyeur in me finds this absolutely enthralling.

Belgian:- Your command of the written English has now reached a point where any casual reader might think "this Belgian, he surely is an imposter....he must be an American"
Cudos Sire.

Topaz

(01/14/2003; 04:22:22 MDT - Msg ID: 94363)

curious@Belgian

Did you notice when Chirac addressed the Troops after putting Frances finest on a War footing, he told them to prepare for ANY contingency....with the emphasis on the "any"?
Muddying the Waters still further eh?

Belgian

(01/14/2003; 05:38:19 MDT - Msg ID: 94364)

@ Topaz

Yes I keep on learning Sir. English and about Gold...2 flies in one clap.
Germany (Schroder) and France (Chirac) will meet soon on the Euroland constitution in progress. But both will have some other chats as well. More precisely about Tony the pony (sorry). Quo Vadis Euroland with or without the former British empire ? I suspect that you also smell that very complicated situation (side-chosing) on Iraq and aftermath.
Euroland (divided or not) will have to make up its mind on the Iraq and ME-issue...someday, not only in opinion but also in deeds. The UK and Turkey are weighing on these decisions. Is this present situation a possible reason that A/FOA stays on the sidelines up until major decisions are taken ?

Political choices, heavely impacting, dead-locked, economies. It is the sick, globalized, economy that is the main cause for very little maneuvering space, like it never happened before. The dollar exchange-rate made wild swings before... (1980 > 1985 > 1995) but the globe's economies were less intertwinned/entangled, then. And the euro-totality didn't exist either. Things are really different now. We may not yet see the final outcome of the coming dollar-collapse that surely might gain momentum if and when the ME is attacked. How will a fully devaluated dollar affect such a globalized "political" economy ? Make your bets ladies and gents...but by preference not without your most personal insurance-metal.

canamami

(01/14/2003; 06:29:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94365)

Central bank loses deputy Knight to BIS

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/PEstory/TGAM/20030114/RKNIG/Headlines/headdex/headdexBusiness_temp/1/1/48/OTTAWA -- Malcolm Knight, senior deputy governor at the Bank of Canada, is stepping down from his post to take the top post with a key international group.

Mr. Knight, who came within a hair's breadth of becoming governor of the Bank of Canada two years ago, was named yesterday as general manager of the Bank for International Settlements.

The top job at the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS, the umbrella regulator for the world's banks, is arguably the second most important job in international monetary policy after the head of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Knight begins his new role April 1.

Mr. Knight told The Globe and Mail yesterday that he intends to continue the recent thrust of his predecessor, Andrew Crockett, who led the BIS through an era of globalization and openness.

"Central banking has come a long way in the last 10 years."

..............

Is the BIS still a hot topic on the Forum?

Christian

(01/14/2003; 06:58:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94366)

(No Subject)

Using securitized gold short instruments, banksters have found ways to profit by manipulating highly leveraged debt instrument into collateralized mortgage obligations or mortgage backed securities. Profits for them and debts for the people. Nobody on this forum has answered my question on how to pay a $1.00 of debt with the 5 cents that are in circulation. The FED needs to print real money and give it to those who can put it to use in the most productive way. When is that going to happen?

goldquest

(01/14/2003; 07:29:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94367)

The Gold Charts

look like an 8.5 on the Richter Scale, this morning! I think Spot will leap to $360 today.

Belgian

(01/14/2003; 07:34:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94368)

@ Christian

Debts will be repaid the day pigs can fly. Debtbergs grow and are rolled over...and over...and over. Printing presses add more ice to the debtbergs. Pigs still learn to fly.
Read the "solution" suggested on the Mises essay (GE) : LET THE WORLD ***LIQUIDATE*** everything that is useless and obsolete. Stop ALL "interventions" NOW ! This will also happen when another bread of pigs, actually can fly as well. Let us stay with both feet on the ground and call CPM...for some more ! We all mostly agree on the gigantic problem(s). High noon for a solid solution in everyones hand. Ohh, sorry...forgot to say ...that it is GOLD that I've on my mind. Cheers Christian. Tell us more recent details about ITERA, please. TIA.

Cometose

(01/14/2003; 07:56:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94369)

U S Dollar

Crashing hard to the down side to new lows....I presume...
I would think GOLD or silver would throw a little more of a party than this......
Will go check Coffee....

Boxman

(01/14/2003; 08:21:46 MDT - Msg ID: 94370)

Kmart to fire thousands

http://www.freep.com/money/business/kmart14_20030114.htmSnip:
Kmart Corp. will announce today that it is closing about 330 stores and firing more than 25,000 workers in the biggest cost-cutting move since the Troy retailer declared bankruptcy a year ago.

Now this is a lot of bones being added to the bone pile.

Suggestion: Follow Black Blades advice, and you will sleep much better.

Pizz

(01/14/2003; 08:36:58 MDT - Msg ID: 94371)

When the Spin is this obvious

you know some or all of the rumors are true.

I have never seen the gold chart put up on the big screen at CNBC more often than this AM. They are going out of their way to show that gold is not rising as rumors about Iraq continue.

Hammer gold, gold stocks, pump the futures, spin the news, then advertise the fact. . . .

Sheesh.. . . . .

Pizz

Boxman

(01/14/2003; 08:42:00 MDT - Msg ID: 94372)

Venezuelan Central Bank Raises Discount Rate to 42%

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Economics&T=sa_content.ht&s=APiLKgBTxVmVuZXp1Snip:

"Venezuela's central bank is trying to stem rising demand for dollars as a nationwide strike, now in its 43rd day, has renewed concern among investors that the country may default on its debts. Higher interest rates help reduce the amount of cash in circulation, trim spending and cut the amount of money available to purchase foreign currency."

It will be interesting to hear how much exposure JPM, and others have to this situation. How many of these Latin American countries will eventually default? Probably all of them (answer to my own question).

As an aside: Black Blade, this was written on the Urban Survival site:

"I've also be talking with friends who have relatives in Venezuela and they tell me a much different tale that the filler on the major news networks. For one thing, I didn't appreciate the problems that President Chavez' thugs have caused to equipment. The word among the people demonstrating - and those just trying to get by in Venezuela, is that most of the troops who are trying to keep some semblance or order in the Western part of the country are mostly young people who have come down from the mountains, are not trained in anything but how to point a gun - and as a result, when they had orders to turn on the oil producing and transportation equipment, they did more damage than good. The best estimates that I've heard is that turning the oil back on will be longer than 1 year to achieve full production."

Should this prove to be valid, or even close to being valid, we have a world of hurt heading our way. I have heard of refineries in the Houston area (if memory serves) that are having to scale back production due to shortages of crude.

Seems like more and more dominoes are falling.

canamami

(01/14/2003; 08:50:42 MDT - Msg ID: 94373)

In December, for the first time in years...

..the POG had a powerful ally in China, and its massive acquisition of reserves. Will someone or something step up to the plate this time?

canamami

(01/14/2003; 09:00:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94374)

Deja vu all over again....

...the PPT is winning this skirmish. Damn their manipulations! The POG down when the dollar is weak? What games!!!

White Rose

(01/14/2003; 09:05:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94375)

Everybody wants a low gold price! (sort of)

The PPT brings down the gold price. I suspect that this is what the Asian buyers want, a lower price to actually buy gold. As we approach the close, the price will increase, thus putting more pressure on the PPT. This whole process forces the maximum amount of gold at a "reasonable price" out the door to Asian buyers. When the dragon is full, the price will soar.

Broken Tee

(01/14/2003; 09:09:37 MDT - Msg ID: 94376)

Japanese Deposit Insurance

Does anyone know if the Japanese banks are still going to do away with account insurance for depositors saving accounts on 4/1/03? If they are we could see higher demand for pm's in the next couple of months.

erayboy

(01/14/2003; 09:09:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94377)

China Bought 100 Tons in 12/02 for Reserves

http://www.pbc.gov.cn/data/2002S6.htmReposted from PruBear Forum.

GoldnSilver2002

(01/14/2003; 09:15:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94379)

If the u.s media is trashing gold that means they are scared!

I love it,now they are showing charts and screaming gold is going down.Oh ya 352 is way down there.Imagine if they started screaming the markets are crashing every time it went down 1 percent?This is proof to me they are running out of metal(gold).Phase two of the gold bull is about to begin and they know it.But they have been manipulating the markets for so long,they believe in their own b.s.I always believed the us citizenry would be the last to know.Let us not forget no one was warned on enron,worldcom,iamclone,adelphia and on and on.Gold will be back at the end of the day and we should be happy gold has a bottom of 350.Even if the bottom(temp) was 340 that is way up.My instincts tell me the break out is near,the more the media gives gold bad press the more i know we are right.Lets not forget gold was the best performing asset for 2 years running,without any help from the media.Remember if the u.s media says something ,do the opposite.

Here is what i mean,buy and hold down jones means this thing is crap and we need someone to buy this junk.Hold means,you should have sold this dog by now,but its too late so you might as well wait 25 years to break even.And gold is going down means a break out is imminent buy with both hands and dont let go.

I have finally found a use for the u.s media,ignore as much as you can and what you do hear,do the opposite.Over the last 3 to 4 years wall st and the media has lost people's fortunes and lied all the way,can a leopard change his stripes?Gold up on the close,if usa doesnt want it,china will buy all the gold.

Buongiorno!

(01/14/2003; 09:21:53 MDT - Msg ID: 94380)

Trojan--Auerback 94353

Interesting, troubling slant from Auerback. Great on history, good analysis, very critical of American motives, but very short on alternatives. (If not this, what would he have us do?)

If we really are an "imperial" power, why did we not just keep the Middle East after WWII? Or, why not "do Baghdad" during Desert Storm?

As for America "siezing the Iraqi oil fields", was I the only one who saw what Saddam did to the Kuwaiti fields? What is to keep him from doing that or worse to his own assets? (Worse being some sort of structural damage to the wells or fields themselves, rather than just torching them.) Blade, can you help here?

As for the Russian ships sent to the area, (two anti-sub and one frigate of some sort) looks like a "presence" but not a "threat". Besides, they are now again our friends... no?

As for the continued use of "imperial" to describe American actions--I just do not know. After several wars, we have no new territory, even gave up the Panama Canal. Perhaps there should be more "imperial" countries out there. Perhaps we should have another Marshall Plan, this time for the Middle East. Ask the bread-ladies in Afghanistan if they want to put their burkas back on and welcome the Taliban back. My guess is that "they ain't going back, mate!"

So, all you America-bashers out there, keep up the carping and bitching. It keeps us on our toes, besides, we might be getting used to it by now. (Wouldn't it be something if "Dubya" ran the table on Saddam with an enormous, credible bluff?) Just a thought...naahh.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch....gold does not seem to want to go under $350....I may be wrong on foreign policy and VERY correct on gold! Best wishes!
BUONGIORNO!

Christian

(01/14/2003; 09:35:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94381)

ITERA

ITERA= privatley owned subsiduary of Gazprom, a Jacksonville Florida registered company, owned by the BUSH CLAN, Bin Laden Family, Opus Dei, Carlyle Group and others. Itera consists of more than 200 enterprises in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and operates in 52 countries around the world. It has ownership interests in such companies as Unocal, Shell, Exon etc. ITERA controls the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. The so called Central Asian Oil Pipeline is now the Central Asian Opium Pipeline. ITERA controls it, thanks to Bush and Tony Blair. ITERA now has control of what used to be the Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline and has control of many oil holdings in the Middle East. ITERA controls the trading platform once Enron had is now in Switzerland under the control of Mark Rich (Reich) a Bush Family crony. Itera is much like Carlyle in a sense that Carlyle controls USA politicians and ITERA controls CIS politicians. Both use offshore banking in Cyprus, and both use gold as currency. Both create their own credit within their own establishments and will only borrow to screw the banks.

Christian

(01/14/2003; 09:42:09 MDT - Msg ID: 94382)

Baku Cehhan Pipeline >

> is a planned pipeline, (does not yet exist) and has been changed to go through Turkistan (Sp) and Iran with a side line going into Iraq.

miner49er

(01/14/2003; 09:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94383)

fwiw... February Comex Gold -- Pow!

Looks like about 2500 Feb contracts sold around 10 am EST... Can anyone confirm this? Anyone want to venture how this will play out? tia, miner

Pizz

(01/14/2003; 09:52:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94384)

The best laid plans. . . . . .

sometimes require a bit of adjustment.

As far as the pump and media, not too much choice this week. I feel that Turkey's obvious emphatuation with the oil fields has the whole senario ratcheded up just a tad. Too bad we can't get a readout on the speed of the ships moving into the ME, especially the Russians. I've heard reports that most of the carriers, if need be, can hit freeway speeds.

If you can't get Sadaam to leave on his own, and can't get him to commit anything severe enough to lauch war, then I guess they'll just have to gather enough circumstantial evidence to, say, occupy the oild fields, cut off his money, and starve his citizens into revolt. Much more humane than blowing the crap out of everthing, don't you think? Politically, though, much more acceptable.

I wonder if the ships and troops can get there faster than Sadaam can light a match and start torching things. I'm sure we cut a deal with the oil companies to geep gas and fuel prices stable while this whole thing plays out. If we get the oil fields intact, the spoils of $2.00 oil with current stable prices should be a nice carrot. And gee, if it goes bad, then $100.00 oil and prices thru the roof can be explained away too.

As far as the market support this week. Should last all week due to options expiration. Can't have a whole bunch of speculative CHEAP puts go in the money, but if the wrong people have the puts (just who bought all the airline puts prior to 911), there could be some fireworks towards the end of the week. If things keep going the way of the ESF, by Monday they'll have to roll them into FEB. The same amount of speculative money will only buy about 1/10 the problem next week. And according to some, next week is the top of some cyclical trends.

Now, do I think the radical Islamics are going to roll over and allow the west to get control of the second largest oil reserves in the world? Not likely. I've said for a long time that we've been in a finacial war for over a year, and the terrorists are more than likely coming to the conclusion that the FED can hold this thing up longer than they thought. . .the printing presses have an overdrive gear that's a bit more efficient than expected.

Osama Bin (who?????).

Weak hands are selling the PM shares. The strong ones are scooping them up. You'd think gold would be off $20.00, but it's not, and that is the key.

Haven't seen this much thrashing around since one of our sales managers threw 5000 cash into the air in the middle of a sales meeting. . . .

Pizz

knotakare

(01/14/2003; 09:56:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94385)

ITERA

"ITERA controls the trading platform once Enron had is now in Switzerland under the control of Mark Rich (Reich) a Bush Family crony"

To see the biggest tax cheat in American history operating freely in europe, tells me all I need to know about those who control the Euro, and the rumors of "so called" free gold. I'm just not buying it. Sorry

knotakare

(01/14/2003; 10:12:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94386)

Question for Christian

I have seen recent stories that a few souls in the Russian legislature are trying to get a large amount of gold that was shipped out of Russia during the "collapse". I'm sure this story is just for public consumption in Russia, but my guestion is, do you know if the Russian principals in ITERA control this gold? The article said this gold was shipped all over, including London, and South America.

Pizz

(01/14/2003; 10:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 94387)

Miner -

Probably not as expected, even Sinclair's e-mail last night reflected some short term indecisiveness, but with geo-political concerns enough to warrant holding positions.

I think most people's crystal balls are really those holiday type, fluid and artificial snow type gadgets. Every time they start to clear up, some sucker shakes them up and they get all cloudy again. . . .

When it all boils down to the bottom of the pot, trust in gold or trust in governments, banks, etc. I vote gold, cause nothing has changed the long term fundamentals. Everything else in noise, albeit it can get load at times.

Pizz

Black Blade

(01/14/2003; 10:14:59 MDT - Msg ID: 94388)

Interesting Discussions

Re: Buongiorno! � Iraqi Oil Fields

Saddam Hussein has already stated that he is ready to begin a "scorched earth policy" if the US invades. That includes the oil fields. Some including Roger Conrad, an energy specialist, believes that Saddam may be willing to use "dirty" bombs to render the fields useless for years if he feels that his existence is threatened. Some speculate that he has planned for this and possibly to do the same to the fields of his neighbors as well. I think that would be a tough job but not entirely impossible. If he were to pull off such a scorched earth policy we could easily see oil over $80/bbl minimum.

Re: miner49er � Gold Contracts

The word I get is that there is a bit of Fund and Bank selling ahead of expiry. How much I don't know. However, there has apparently a bit of "buying the dips" as well. So far it's been well supported above $350.

Re: erayboy � China Central Bank buying

I had addressed this in yesterday's Market Report. The Chinese CB bought an additional 100 tons gold in the last three months of 2002. Also, the Shanghai Gold Exchange will extend hours due to increased demand for gold trading. Demand is quite strong and physical gold buying is reported to be very strong. Retail sellers are having a tough time keeping bullion in stock and tend to sell out quickly. Apparently they now have waiting lists for buyers once more gold arrives to the dealers. Japanese buying is reported to be very strong as well as that country's banking sector is failed and insolvent. So far the plan to discontinue deposit insurance on April 1st (the April Fools Day Surprise � part II) is still in effect. The transfer of wealth from the west to the east continues.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

silvergolong

(01/14/2003; 10:16:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94389)

@ erayboy #: 94377

PRC central bank reservesYou posted a fascinating link pointing to the PRC's central bank.

I took a closer look at the statistics which had an interesting story to tell.

1) During the year 2000, the PRC's central bank's gold and foreign exchange reserves barely changed at all.

2) However, in the two-year period between 1/2001 and 12/2002, the bank's foreign exchange reserves grew by 69%

3) Their gold reserves increased by 50%, or almost 7 million ounces (241 tons) during the same time period.

4) The monthly breakdowns imply that they make additions to their gold reserves every December. Could that help explain the big jump up in the POG this last December?

Total reported reserves at the end of 12/2002 are:

$286 billion in US dollars
19,290,000 ounces of gold (~665 tons)

Mr Gresham

(01/14/2003; 10:31:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94390)

Civil War: Guns n Roses

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0301/S00033.htmFollowup to Topaz's Auerback link, and some inspired commentary from some otherwise-troubled products of our Empire:

Look at your young men fighting

Look at your women crying

Look at your young men dying

The way they've always done before

Look at the hate we're breeding

Look at the fear we're feeding

Look at the lives we're leading

The way we've always done before

My hands are tied

The billions shift from side to side

And the wars go on with brainwashed pride

For the love of God and our human rights

And all these things are swept aside

By bloody hands Time can't deny

And are washed away by your genocide

And history hides the lies of our civil war

I don't need your Civil War

It feeds the rich while it buries the poor

Look at the shoes you're filling

Look at the blood we're spilling

Look at the world we're killing

the way we've always done before

Look at the doubt we've wallowed

Look at the leaders we've followed

Look at the lies we've swallowed

And I don't want to hear no more

With no love of God and our human rights

'Cause all these dreams are swept aside

By bloody hands of the hypnotized

Who carry the cross of the homocide

And history bears the scars of our Civil War

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/14/2003; 10:37:37 MDT - Msg ID: 94391)

Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/14/2003; 10:41:19 MDT - Msg ID: 94392)

International clients: Please take note of our NEW toll free Int'l phone numbers

http://www.usagold.com/phone.html
Implemented to help us serve you better.

Give them a spin and let us help you with your next gold purchase.

sector

(01/14/2003; 10:42:19 MDT - Msg ID: 94393)

@ pizz Pushing down on gold

Marshall Auerbach 1/14/2003: "...the last gasp of a declining empire"Your note about the divergence between shares and metal is perceptive.

The media's frenetic arm-waving at "Gold's weak performance" is a wonderful contrary indicator. The strong hands world knows what is up in the gold pits and is buying the metal on ALL dips. The "Confused" share buying ,hot money is even more confused that the approaching US Iraqi invasion isn't running gold high enough for them.

The long-awaited gold market awakening will occur when the gold share sellers ultimately realize that the metal has made what cyclists refer to as a "breakaway". The investment "peloton" made of these latent gold share buyers is a potent collective force but like the cycling kind, takes time to appreciate the metal's breakaway and even more time to respond. THAT the gold share buyers will respond to the metallic breakaway is beyond serious doubt. The metal buyers are in control and they are also buying shares on the cheap.

A final full-court press down on gold is a very good sign that a short covering end-game is in process. The coordinated Mineweb, CNBC and select Wall Street marionette anti-gold propaganda reveals a clear tactic coming as it does just before an options expiration. The cost to the G-10 is enormous in terms of metal to do this kind of all-out-blitz.

And there sits the price of gold at $352.70 at 12:28PM.

The dollar is down a bit but the DIVG will set yet another high this evening. it is this metric that count in my view. This is their fuel gauge, how much ammunition costs to the G-10 treasuries.

it is wonderful entertainment to observe the futile gold-bashing attempts of the cabal. The peloton is only dozing. The breakaway is near.

And then Iraq. Turkey moves on Kirkuk, then to Baghdad. Will Iran move a division the few hundred kms to Basra and then Westward to the oil fields?

To continue to sell gold DURING the war is utter stupidity for the G-10. They must roll with the punches. It is the logical way to conserve their precious metal. Better to have one last cover BEFORE the shooting and who-knows-what happens. Let gold run up $30-40 dollars.

There's your breakaway.

The peloton will get rolling and make up for lost profits in a very big way.

Mr Gresham

(01/14/2003; 10:47:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94394)

Buongiorno

I wish I could do justice to the topic, and I searched on Mark Twain and the Anti-Imperial League of a century ago, but got a bad bunch of pop-ups at the first site I clicked in on ("boondocks.net" I think it was) so I'm back here.

Empire usually benefits only a small contingent within the imperial center (e.g., finance vs. productive industry, or export vs domestic consumption), and the others may weigh in against it, albeit somewhat unconsciously.

Also the loss of core values and quality of life may be sensed by them. Empire has a (probably in this time) short burn-out life, rotting the center nation quickly. Many will resist this.

It may not be efficient to go out with swords swinging, but to keep imperial swagger to a minimum for maximum propaganda value at home. Conscientious, educated workers are needed to run the home economic machine. Imperialists may be tentative in their efforts, sensing their political base at home may be shaky.

Rome's legacy, which we celebrate each Spring at Easter: Roads lined with crosses. People in Central America and Argentina have photos of their disappeared loved ones on the wall, equivalent to those crosses.

Each Empire is different, and the technology this time is SO different from any other (and so mis-matched, with the USSR gone) that direction will be taken thoughtfully, if those directing it are "wise".

You're right: We are very far from any alternatives. If you were to ask me, I think "Saddam's oil" should be put into trust for the long-term benefit of humanity, such benefit to be determined by supra-national processes we are nowhere near having. So, shoot me for being "ahead" of my time. ;)

However, the oil problem (Hubbert's Peak) is irrefutable, and it is not surprising that our "leaders" are choosing this time to "do something about it". I can almost sympathize with them. Almost.

Mr Gresham

(01/14/2003; 10:49:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94395)

Buongiorno!

Sorry, forgot the punctuation in your name! (And it does cheer me each time I see it -- reminds me of pleasant journeys -- mi piacere!)

silvergolong

(01/14/2003; 10:50:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94396)

dollar bouncing lower

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=sToday's dollar chart looks like a slinky going down the stairs, a nice pattern of lower lows and lower highs.

Hard to believe that gold can stay down with this type of action on the dollar chart, especially considering how tightly correlated the gold and dollar have been lately

Belgian

(01/14/2003; 10:54:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94397)

Saudi Arabia (SA)

Why is SA so accomotif towards oil-POO ? Why do they want to help the planet's oil-consumers in times of oil-stress ?
Much of islam-fundamentalism is indirectly financed by oil-confetti...the 9/11 atrocities were committed by Saudis and wanted OBL is still a fugitive (?) Saudi. SA's internal tensions find their feeding bottom in anti-americanism and the whole ME region risks to come under foreign control. The Saudis even recognized/accepted the existance of the state of Israel.
A periodic (strong) rise of POO (plus 30$) is not going to initiate immediate search and application for Arabian oil-alternatives. SA compensates for Venezuela as the closiest oil-supplier to the US, the victim of 9/11. The US$ is declining in exchange rate and still pays for oil.
Under these circumstances, it is quite normal that one asks the question...

WHAT DO THE SAUDIS GET IN RETURN for these rather friendly services ?

Are there other answers, different than the euro/Gold theory ?

Pizz

(01/14/2003; 11:07:48 MDT - Msg ID: 94398)

Interesting articles

http://www.etherzone.com/2003/burn011403.shtmlInteresting link scooped from another site.

Here's a guy that looks at the events of the last century as somewhat of a global roadrace with a lot of detours and sidetrips, but with a destination that has been planned not to the benefit of the bulk of the US.

Kind of like launching a rocket to a predetermined destination in space. If you don't understand the route it must take, it sure can look like your launching it in the wrong direction. . . .

One of the articles has a comment on gold certificates that I found both amusing and truthful. It was a senator's comment that gold certificates were not issued so as to be redeamable, but more as a reciept that the gold had been taken away.

I'm not that much of a conspiratory buff, but when you realize that no fiat economy has ever lasted long term, is it unreasonable to assume that some moneied interests have "hedged" their bets on a global basis?

Physical Gold seems to be the required hedge. . .

Pizz

Topaz

(01/14/2003; 11:19:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94399)

Ari.

With a half hour to kill before venturing forth in search of fortune may I address this point of Gold Money/Wealth you so clearly demonstrated yesterday. The Euro, a mimic of the Dollar in all respects other than it's perceived ability to live in harmony with physical Gold, is "standing ready" to accept the mantle of World reserve Currency. As an ursurous $ equal, a point your previous explanations tacitly acknowledged, how do you view this Euro harmonising with the Dinar brigade whose philosophy is at variance with not only ursury, but also the systemic methodology you so clearly pointed to? (banking, loans etc)
...bearing in mind that our current system (to be perpetuated AGAIN with the Euro) is SO open to ridicule that any Nutter with a Bee in his Bonnet can simply point to our system, highlight the weaknesses thereof, create mass frenzy to the point where otherwise rational souls go around blowing everyone up.
Will the Euro simply become the next Great Satan?

(01/14/2003; 11:19:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94400)

canamami. . . The New Gold Lease Market, Some Thoughts

There are reports from good sources that the demand for gold leases is down and likely to stay down. Central banks who act primarily as depositors in these banking tranasactions are looking for better returns than the bullion banks are willing to offer. Simultaneously, the mining companies who engaged in the gold carry trade are winding down operations due to the minimized arbitrage opportunity. They were borrowing gold, selling it and then buying Treasuries thus capitalizing on the spread.

Whenever, you look at the gold lease equation supply and demand have to be taken into account equally. The lease rate more less acts like a price mechanism. Now the situation is greatly reduced demand and likely to remain so for some time to come. I would not read any more than that into these low lease rates.

The Dutch central bank recently withdrew its gold from the international lease pool because of the low rates -- 140 tonnes by the way. The head of gold deposit operations at the Dutch cb also said publicly that he believed other cb's have positioned themselves similarly. If lease rates do spike again, it will likely be because someone has gotten into trouble and needs physical.

It look like there will be some available but if all the Dutch want to put on the table is 140 tonnes and that's indicative of the major cbs, the bullion banks could be in for some problems if their loan books are as voluminous as many think they are. The Welteke push for Germany to sell gold, by the say, sounds very familiar, doesn't it? Think Gordon Brown a few years ago before the BOE sales. He essentially went on tour to find gold and pushed hard for IMF sales. All external sources caved-in on him and he was forced to sell out of BOE. My gut hunch is that one of the Bundesbank's commercial gold lenders is in trouble -- and it's a big number -- and like BOE they are looking for metal to fulfill its lender of last resort function. As Mr. Turk has said pointedly, "You cannot print gold." This could become a major factor in facilitating a gold spike down the road. While everyone is watching a major American bank carefully, we could get blind-sided from across the water.

Ten Bears

(01/14/2003; 11:26:34 MDT - Msg ID: 94401)

Mr. Gresham

Bravo!

"Empire usually benefits only a small contigent within the
imperial center...finance vs productive industry.." Much wisdom in a few words...thanks.

balzac

(01/14/2003; 11:38:07 MDT - Msg ID: 94402)

CANADIAN FINANCE DEPTS BLUNDER

FOR ALL YOU FELLOW CDNSWe talk about the British govt mistakes in gold sales , our Liberal
Govt in Feb 2002 sold 95,000 ounces of gold at $US 298. Today
the price is $354 - a loss of $56 per oz. ,when converted to Cdn
the loss is Cdn $8,393,000.

In 1979, we had 22million oz. in the Cdn Treasury ,today we have
1 million oz. , today we pay $1.55 for a US buck , in 1979
we were at par approximately.

Look at the stupidity of our
gold policy and the ensuing price the Cdn public has paid.

Balzac

Christian

(01/14/2003; 11:51:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94403)

ITERA

@ knotakare- Mark Rich Would like to move back to USA. He is a wanted man in Europe just like he is here. That does not stop him from being able to do business or whatever you want to call what he does. He is a trader for a quick money.-- ITERA was formed as a means to move proceeds from export raw material sales out of the country. They have accounts with such banking giants like Goldman Sachs, J.P.Morgan, Citibank, etc, etc. It is impossible to have a savings or checking account in Russia, where the bank itself will not steal your money. I know that from my own experience. Most Russians have no money and what they have is denominated in paper form from other countries hidden under the mattress or such some place. A US penny is worth a lot more in Russia then it is here. Mark Rich is the main man who got Russia's gold out. Still it was not enough to cover all of the losses many banks and LTCM had to accept from the Russian default. Still Putin did the right thing. Default is a way to get out of impossible debt payments. USA should do the same. It is the right thing to do. The sooner the better. Why keep the agony going? ITERA like Carlyle Group use gold for credit creation to buy into other companies. Both entities do what the FED does. They know how to loot corporations like Enron. Enron's loot was transfered into their Jacksonville Florida office via FED wire.

Pizz

(01/14/2003; 11:57:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94404)

balzac

Very good, bottom line analysis of dollar hedgemoney.

If I may add the fact that Canada has also, as a result of what you posted, been having a 20 year sale on your natural resources and labor, to the point that now it is a half-price sale, at least for us here in the US.

It's amazing how the system has been working. Based upon currencies, your exports should be up, balance of trade up, book profits are up, your companies are paying wages in depreciated Canadian dollars, with payment for goods in stronger American dollars.

Works for the few, not the many. That's why the few (all over the world) are frantically trying to keep the dollar alive, strong and kicking.

Hasn't worked long term in the past, and won't work long term into the future either.

Pizz

Sierra Madre

(01/14/2003; 12:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94405)

Topaz: you ask "Will the Euro simply become the next Great Satan?"

I think it is more than likely, indeed a certainty.

Although Belgian is optimistic that the ECB and EU leaders have favorable aims up their sleeve, the evidence is flimsy at best. I would not count on any return to sanity, although I hope I am wrong. (Example: we are told the EU wants to ban all transactions in cash over 10,000 Euros in the near future. This is Statist thinking, and Statism hates real money (gold) with a vengeance.)

Just ask yourself; "Who is talking sense in Europe? In what Universities are the basic fallacies of the present system of paper money being exposed? Where are the influential thinkers writing books on the need for a new (actually, old and tried) system of controlling the expenditures of the State, and forcing the Banks and Banking systems to strictly control their expansion, limiting it to harnessing true savings as the basis for expansion?"

The intellectual foundations are missing entirely! These must precede any improvement in the human condition.

Paradoxically, the Islamists, strictly religious people - some would call them fanatics - who want to adhere to the religious precepts regarding money, are on a far better track to attain something worthwhile; not by employing reason, but by simple adherence to a fundamental religious precept - anathema to the West, which wants to reason everything out, and thus easily falls into destructive fallacies, diverse "isms".

Sorry to be so negative. I hope I am wrong!

Sierra

Black Blade

(01/14/2003; 12:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94406)

Kmart to fire thousands

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/kr/20030114/lo_krdetroit/kmart_to_fire_thousands
Snippit:

Kmart Corp. will announce today that it is closing about 330 stores and firing more than 25,000 workers in the biggest cost-cutting move since the Troy retailer declared bankruptcy a year ago.

Black Blade: That's a whopping 25,000 tired old "bones" tossed aside like useless rags atop the growing "Bone Pile". The much touted "economic recovery" won't save these "bones".

Aristotle

(01/14/2003; 12:35:09 MDT - Msg ID: 94407)

Topaz, thanks for catching my drift

I was beginning to lose confidence in any ability to communicate a point through time and space!

Regarding the dinar movement, I will be surprised (quite pleasantly though) if it lives up to its billing as a force on the world stage.

I hope I didn't truly give an impression that I felt the euro to be a "ursurous $ equal" as you implied. True, as a nominal non-physical currency unit I do see the euro to be a bird of similar feather as the dollar, I see neither one as part of a usurous system -- precisely because neither of these two currencies are discrete physical items -- such as the Mona Lisa.

So when it comes to finance and accounting, I see no problem paying 105 dollars (or euros) next year for the right to borrow and use 100 dollars (or euros) this year. However, on the other (physical) hand, for example, for a museum to be expected to return *more* of a borrowed Mona Lisa would be completely fatuous (as "usurous" falls short of the mark.)

Yes, I said the euro and dollar were birds of a similar feather, but their BONES are surely different. A dissection of the underlying banking structure that suports the currency feathers reveals these birds to be completely different species, therefore it's not completely fair for any Nutter to point to dollar-system weaknesses and thus expect the euro-system to be the next Great Satan.

Well, on second thought, I guess rules of "fairness" and rational assessment don't apply to Nutters, so all bets are off on that account! What a world!!

Cheers to you, mate!

Gold. G.y.s. --- Ari

Aristotle

(01/14/2003; 12:45:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94408)

balzac -- Canadian Govt selling Gold

That's one heckuva drawdown we've all watched over the years.

The lesson here, I think, is that there's some things a man simply gotta to do for himself. Ownership of Gold is one of them. (After all, can you cite any specifics where the Gold while it was in the government's hands ever once served you well during your personal times of need?)

Gold. Step up to the plate and swing before the ninth inning ends. --- Ari

ElGordo

(01/14/2003; 12:58:28 MDT - Msg ID: 94409)

Confusing cross currents

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Tuesday, January 14, 2003

CAIRO � Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has for the first time signaled openness to an Arab plan for his exile in an effort to prevent a U.S.-led war against Iraq.

Arab diplomatic sources said Saddam has agreed to send a senior aide to discuss "personal issues." The sources said the aide could arrive in Cairo over the weekend for talks on a plan to organize asylum in a Middle East country.

On Monday, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz said Saddam would never leave Iraq

Saddam's envoy was identified as Ali Hassan Al Majid, a senior member of the Iraqi Revolutionary Council.
______________
Some talk about Saddam stepping down. Bush is trying to bluff
him out, probably won't work, but media chatter affecting gold.

UN mediating in Venezuela. If we see compromise, correction
could result.

Long term fundamentals for gold and energy remain the same
with China buying weaker dollar in the cards.

Buongiorno!

(01/14/2003; 13:01:35 MDT - Msg ID: 94410)

Grazia, Mr. Gresham

Empires do some gosh-awful things, and the Romans had more than their share of bad moments. However, I remember reading in one of Durant's history books that it took most of Europe over one thousand years to recapture the standard of living that prevailed under Rome before she fell. That is a lot of misery in itself.

And, less crosses by the roadside would have indeed been much better. If we must wear such a heavy mantle,(empire) may we do more of the good and less of the bad things. As do modern Romans--we agree they are a charming and engaging bunch--giving lots of great memories!

Empires come and go--Gold remains.

BUONGIORNO!

goldquest

(01/14/2003; 13:12:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94411)

Marc Rich Was Pardoned

by Clinton on his last day in office. A payoff for a million dollar campaign contribution. Ken Lay and crew are laying low, waiting for the day Bush has to pay off his "debt!"

Aristotle

(01/14/2003; 13:21:42 MDT - Msg ID: 94412)

Belgian's (rhetorical) question

What do the Saudis get for their friendly services?

Yep, I see what you're saying. That good question in light of today's world is most easily answerable only if a beneficial connection is made between Saudi Arabia and a smooth shift toward euro dominance.

In the meanwhile, and also in the interest of "smoothness" it sure doesn't hurt to build up a vault of positive political capital with the party (U.S.) that will ultimately feel the most "betrayed" by the inevitable shift in monetary alliance away from the dollar.

The King could say in good faith, "Look, we did all we could! What more would you have me do? It's nothing personal, I'm sure you understand..."

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Black Blade

(01/14/2003; 13:22:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94413)

goldquest - Marc Rich

Marc Rich isn't out of the woods quite yet. A few weeks after Clinton left office the Attorney General's office filed additional charges. So it appears that Rich will not be coming back anytime soon. As far as the Enron crowd (WorldCon too) is concerned it looks like they will get a pass.

- Black Blade

canamami

(01/14/2003; 13:32:12 MDT - Msg ID: 94414)

MK, thx for your reply....

...and the illuminating comments therein. If the CB's are retreating from the carry trade, the manipulators are in serious trouble. Gold miners, IMHO, can't risk excessive aggression in their hedging because as private entitities they can go bust. Further the gold miner hedge has to make some sort of economic sense in terms of risk and reward, lest the company breach its fiduciary duties to shareholders. Hence, I have always believed that the manipulation of the POG required official sector co-operation, and once that co-operation is withdrawn the manipulation must stop, or it will be doomed to failure.

I wonder if China will continue to add to its gold reserves? We are now in a situation where gold makes sense as a holding next to the dollar and other currencies. If China continues to add to its reserves, the manipulators are, IMHO, done for.

ElGordo

(01/14/2003; 13:36:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94415)

Intel reports after close

API report tomorrow should show drawdown, good for
energy and therefore gold. PPI tomorrow should show
higher oil prices but numbers could be cooked.

Iraq war probability seems to be fading and UN involved in
negotiating Venezuela could ease tensions.

Dollar should continue to weaken with trade and budget
deficits so that should put floor under gold.

Intel earnings tonight should show weakness and weak
outlook going forward.

Short term gold prices will depend on tomorrows data.
Lots of cross currents right now!

goldquest

(01/14/2003; 13:39:06 MDT - Msg ID: 94416)

@Black Blade Ref: Marc Rich

Right you are. Rich is wanted by the state of New York for income tax evasion to the tune of $137 million, with $20,000 in interest accumulating every day!

Pizz

(01/14/2003; 13:43:00 MDT - Msg ID: 94417)

ElGordo

Re: Mixed Signals

Yes, lots of them. As far as Sadaam bailing out, it would be the prudent move. He knows he can't win a war, so rather than lose, get the heck out.

But an older than dirt war tactic is that when you are faced with overwhelming odds, about the best you can do is retreat - but you use a scortched earth policy to inhibit the advance of your oppressor. Hard to press on, when you have to live off the land so to speak as you advance.

Since the long range goal is to defeat the US, torching the oil fields hurts us - big time - hurts the Iraqi people, but Sadaam dosen't give a darn, and sends the price of oil thru the roof, and that's hard to find a negative for the rest of OPEC. And as the dollar collapses along with the economy, the swing to the Euro will only exaberate the problem. About as close to a no win senario as I can see, but maybe there's a few creative rabbits left to be pulled out of the hat, but excuse me if I don't bet on it and go long dollars and stocks.

It also gives a reprieve to the gold shorts, as the war premium window closes, and before the gold bull takes off again when people realize that 100 buck oil is going to kill the enemy a lot quicker than his army. It always has been oil.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the stock market is just sitting there as we pump in money and foreigners pump it out. Got to be a a slew of foreign investors laughing their you know whats off at how easy it has been to get their money out while we have to support the price.

Pizz

Waverider

(01/14/2003; 14:16:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94418)

VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlBest market report on the web!

BTW - with the talk here of Russian missile-armed ships, I'll add that I had opportunity this past weekend to dive a 320 foot Russian patrol vessel sunk just off the northeast coast of Cuba in about 80 feet of water - pretty interesting! Cheers!

Waverider

Rock

(01/14/2003; 14:25:16 MDT - Msg ID: 94419)

Intel Beats The Street By 2 Cents

Look for a break out tomorrow into green territory right at the opening bell. The carnival barkers will love to talk about Intel tomorrow, who knows maybe some fool will put his money in tech's now that the bear market is over.

Hipplebeck

(01/14/2003; 14:34:01 MDT - Msg ID: 94420)

dollar fiat system

How does credit money work?
By rolling over debt
over and over, deeper and deeper.
Will it be you that pays off what your government borrows in your name? Not likely is it, considering what is owed is always more than what is borrowed into existence?
Indebting your children.
bondage on their future earnings.

What a proud and wonderful legacy.

Euro, dollar, no difference.

In the end, when the last ponzi victim catches on, the only way out is to hyperinflate or go bankrupt, then everyone pays a horrible price.

The men who wrote the US constitution tried to warn us, but greedy men in positions of power stole our financial freedom.

gold is honest money for honest men.

knotakare

(01/14/2003; 14:47:53 MDT - Msg ID: 94421)

transfer of assets/ITERA

Christian, thanks for your response on the Russian Gold situation. My understanding is that this gold is still controled by Ledbed and other Russians, who really rule the country.

With regard to Marc Rich, he is one of the the most brilliant traders in world history. A trader of oil that is. When Enron went down, I believe one of the Swiss/NYC banks bought the platform and business. It makes sense that they brought it back to Switzerland, to set up Marc Rich at the controls. He probably was a Big time consultant to Enron; those crooks had the same philosophy, take whatever you can by any means.

I have seen copies of wire transfer routing documents through the Fed on the web. One of the documents has a hand written note that says these tranfers to the Bush accounts (all over the world) are not legal under US law, as they are not subject to reporting requirements. It really helps you understand that the FED is a private bank, above the law. Someday Americans may understand this relationship of the FED to their government, that the FED is a private bank, and it can be insolvent just like any other bank. I noticed you mentioned the FED wire from Enron to ITERA in Jacksonville. There probably are more skeletons within the fed's private label wire transfer confetti.

ElGordo

(01/14/2003; 14:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94422)

Intel surprises-off to the races-but not so fast

@Pizz- Well well, Intel does well, but cap spending this year
is weak-bad for other techs like AMAT etc. Market will pop
on news but, we have had a run and now most of the good news
is baked into prices, we might see the market sell off with
profit taking soon.

I just can't see Saddam stepping down, could be, but not likely
as he is an egomaniac and is conscious of his place in history.
If he runs away, he loses his place in history as the great hero
of mother of all warriors.

Oil should get a shock with drawdown report tomorrow.
That will add to inflation expectations, we shall see.
I think Saddam is as you say, more likely to follow scortched
earth policy. Oil should help gold stay above 340.
Interesting times for sure!

@Waverider- Sounds like you are having a super time diving!
Cool- You are based out of S Florida? You aren't in Cuba are you?
Hey, keep an eye out for galleon gold- would be
great to find some gold coins or silver pieces of eight!
Pieces of eight I understand were super popular for
quite a few centuries-lets hope they come back with - maybe
the silver Dirham- Buena suerte!

misetich

(01/14/2003; 15:03:48 MDT - Msg ID: 94423)

Volcker Airs Concerns About Volatility Of Exchange Rates

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=808&ncid=808&e=16&u=/dowjones/20030113/bs_dowjones/200301131853000689Snip:

"We are running - we've had a very strong dollar," Volcker said, adding that the U.S. has a very high and ultimately unsustainable current account deficit. " That'll be adjusted someday," he said. "And we have a nice question whether it will be adjusted in an orderly way or in a disorderly way, and we've left ourself a little vulnerable."

............

But Volcker complained that "there's been too little attention to the fact that the economy is too dependent upon a very high level of consumption, very slow savings, an increasing and large current account deficit that requires a very large and steady amount of foreign investment to sustain.

"And someday we are going to have to get into an economic situation where we are saving a little more, spending less relative to the GNP, and paying a little bit more of our way internationally," Volcker said. "And we're not making very much progress in any of those directions in the short run.

So I think we've got a very considerable problem out there," he continued. " And if I was looking at economic policy changes and tax changes, you look at it in that context, not what's going to happen in the next quarter."
..............

Volcker said he doesn't know what's going to happen in the stock market. "But, clearly, we've had a considerable bubble in the stock market, and now it has been at least partly deflated," he said.

"And so far, we've gotten by with deflation in the bubble, not without pain,"
*********
Misetich

Got gold?

Trojan

(01/14/2003; 15:05:49 MDT - Msg ID: 94424)

Saddam Why ?

I wonder if someone might explain this to me ?

Common Sense says that Saddam does not want to be attacked by the USA.

So why then do I keep seeing as I just did about 15 minutes ago a News piece by MSNBC on how close Saddam's Boy's came to shooting down a US plane in the No Fly Zone ?

Of course this then gives the US the right to attack a few ground targets in Iraq.

Now Saddam has yet to hit a US Plane (Non-Drone) in the last ten years so WHY would he NOW keep trying to DOWN a US Plane ?

Now meaning at a time when the US is just itching to have a reason to attack.

Kill or capture a US Pilot and WAR is on. UN or No UN

Are these reports true ?
It doesn't make sense. No one ever accused Saddam of being stupid.

Explanations would be appreciated.

Thank You...

Belgian

(01/14/2003; 15:17:52 MDT - Msg ID: 94425)

@ Ari

Thanks for responding. The euro has NOT the ambition to "dominate" and is in no way the next satan. Euroland is too diversified and is therefore not constructed for hegemony. Elaborating on this subject, would take us too far away from Gold.

Another point for deep analysis, is the following question : **** Why *** is Euroland, UK and Switzerland, supposedly "selling" , CB-monetary-Gold ? Euroland, percepted (and pictured) as the big, high profile, Gold-seller, cannot at all be explained with the argument that the US$, wants to remain strong ! And "what" kind of selling is actually going on ? And "why" is there no debate about this ?

This *moving* Gold must be destined for a final purpose...a cause of high order ! The respective National CBs have all their local explanation that is good enough for its general public. But the totality of these Gold-Moves *must* serve to "conclude" something. In simplier words : Who are the receivers of this Gold and why them in particular ?
Only two possible answers on top of the page : Oil and euro !

Even with a demand/supply deficit since 1989 (Mineweb), all this Monetary Gold (aboveground) cannot "only" have served the jewelry industry.

Why would an euro make the dollar strong in Gold with Euroland Goldsales ? This is nonsense.

There is a gigantic smokescreen out there with lots of inconsistanties as to *hide* the real purposes for the much trumpeted Gold-Moves. It is Another who found that one and only real reason : Gold must flow for oil to remain abundantly available. Can anyone come up with the name of one public financial medium or a Gold-Defender, that has ever suggested that this OIL FOR GOLD is a reality ?

Miner's forward sales, Bullion Banks, Hyper short positions in Gold...and tutti quanti are well documented. And there is always, only one reason given for this : A policy of dollar-strength ! And therefore I do repeat my question again : Why are/should, European CBs, co-operating on a US-policy for dollar-strength, whith so called CB goldsales...when those same euro-CBs created their own currency, the euro ?

Have you an answer dearest Ari or anyone else ?

Belgian

(01/14/2003; 15:34:54 MDT - Msg ID: 94426)

@ Trojan

The answer on your question, Sir, is as simple as can be :

*** TOTAL DESINFORMATION ON A SCALE THAT NEVER WAS *** !

Second after second...minute after minute...24 hours/7days !

It is this "total dis-information" that has completely "infantilizised" the general public that lost its common sense and capacity to react.

History repeats itself !

ElGordo

(01/14/2003; 15:37:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94427)

@Trojan

The no fly zones were put in place after the 91 war by
the US , UK and France. France pulled out a few years ago.

The no fly zones were never approved by the UN or any other
international body. They are not in line with international
law- its the US that does this unilaterally.

Saddam shoots at the planes to remind the world that the
US is doing this. The US complains to the UN but the UN ignores
the US because it never authorized the no fly zone policy.

Saddam loves to yank our chain. It reminds the world of our
unathorized policy and it gives Iraq info on our technology
and capabilties I'm sure. Besides, if Saddam ever gets lucky
and captures one of our pilots- it would be a huge PR victory.

Tevye

(01/14/2003; 15:44:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94428)

trojan: Iraq war

It is true that Iraq shoots at US/UK aircraft in the no-fly zones almost daily. Retaliation upon Iraqi air defenses also often occurs, and much more effectively since the US/UK can hit what is aimed at! By any historical definition the US/UK have been at war with Iraq for the better part of the last few years! Yet it's rarely in the news. I have no explainations.

Pizz

(01/14/2003; 15:46:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94429)

ElGordo

Re: INTC - Island had Intel off .15 to .20 cents after hours. Green tech in the morning will probably be sold into by the buyers in the "netherland" of aftermarket trading. The average gambler just doesn't have much of a chance. . . .just like the flagpole ralleys that start with the futures and then the stocks gap up. No way to by low unless you do it blind the day before, and if you do buy on the open, it's on the gap up. . . . .it's why I don't short term trade anymore. . .used to be able to have some fun and do a little better than break even. . .now its like craps and the only number you can play is 4 or 5.

On Sadaam: yes, the old ego trip. One thing I do know, either Bush or Sadaam is probably going to have a little crow to digest before this is over. Both have talked themselves into pretty tight corners. I still lean towards Sadaam exiting, on the cover of saving his countrymen from the US war machine. Then whatever happens to the country will be our doing, not his.

And assuming he'll torch the fields, ( and it sure has been convenient for Sadaam that the UN has made sure that he has had enough time to set up whatever he has in mind), if we think the war would have been expensive, how about supporting that country with burning oil fields that may turn out to be rendered useless for many, many years.

Way too many wildcards and senarios possible right now, but it would not surprise me to have some major financial trouble pop up anytime from now til the end of the month.

When you get into a situation by shortsightness, stupidity, greed, and arrogance, the way out is usually tried using the same attributes. And that spells catastrophe. . .

Think I'll go home and fondle some of my gold tonite, gives me kind of a warm fuzzy feeling that tends to offset the fear of what the next fix will be.

Pizz

Christian

(01/14/2003; 15:53:06 MDT - Msg ID: 94430)

Millions of Barrels of Middle East oil these companies

We SHELL not EXXONerate Saddam Hussein for his MARATHON actions. We shall MOBILize to meet his threat to our vital CHEVRON/TEXACO oil interests until an AMOCOable solution is reached. Our best strategy is to BPrepared. --Shell 206 m/b, Chevron Texeco 145 m/b, Exxon/Mobil 130 m/b, Marathon 120 m/b, AmocoBP 65 m/b.. m=millions b=barrels. In exchange for this oil the Middle East gets our counterfeit fiat. Is there any wonder why oil wants GOLD.

Trojan

(01/14/2003; 15:54:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94431)

@ Belgian, ELGordo and Tevye

OK, I follow all your comments and thank you for them

Let's say, Saddam gets Lucky and hits one, would that be the Incubator Baby of 2003 that started things off in 1991 for Bush Sr ?

It later turned out that it was the daughter of the Kuwait ambassador to the UN who made the story uo talking to the US Congress.

Like Father, Like Son :-)

Galerider

(01/14/2003; 16:00:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94432)

BROKEN TEE JAPANESE BANK DEPOSITS

Insurance is being limited to first 80 million yen.

Aristotle

(01/14/2003; 16:20:00 MDT - Msg ID: 94433)

Belgian, thanks for the dialog

Why are European CBs counter-intuitively selling Gold?

Since you're looking for additional input or opinion to be aired on this latest question, I'll be happy to humor you with mine.

I'd like to call it a show of good faith in the commitment to the new system -- building outsider confidence and "buying" the support of important future team-mates.

What better way to show Saudi Arabia, perhaps others, that euro architects have no fear about Gold moving in size under their stewardship even as it was/is nearly impossible to convert pertroDOLLARS into Gold under the IMF/Washington reign. The books and the grey and balding heads at the BIS surely know who got stuck (and by how much) holding the empty bag on international settlements since the collapse of the Gold-convertibility obligations under Bretton Woods.

So, perhaps it would be fair to say that these latest European Gold reallocations are demonstration of a "can do" ability and attitude to win or ensure future vital support for the eurosystem from a few key international partners.

It's one thing to make a promise, and we've all had our empty fill of them in the past. To ship the Gold, however, is a real eye opener -- an attention-getting show of good faith as part of a quid pro quo, "quo" forthcoming.

Please feel free to steer me into the light where I have strayed.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Christian

(01/14/2003; 16:20:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94434)

Euro - Dollar

The US FED has lost its ability to control credit creation to WALL STREET. The Europeans seeing how wall street financially conquers one country after another with inflated stock prices only to profit from them as they shorted them and indebted those countries to dollars, decided that they had a choice of either be dollar conquered or establish a currency to stop the dollar conquest. Hence the Euro. Canada hates the dollar conquest and is selling its gold for Euro's. Canada was under a lot of pressure to sell gold to USA, and does, but it wants to be conquered by the Euro before it gets conquered by the dollar. So do many countries in South America, Asia, and even China. Same will happen in the Middle East. Sure we have the military power to take the Middle East over but do we have the means to fight a war like Vietnam over a 20 year period. It is only a matter of time the whole world will be against us for looting oil that everyone wants. USA is not the only country short on oil. Oil wants GOLD and the first currency that will pay gold for oil will have it in the long run. Where do you think that 100 tonnes the U.S. sells from its own production goes. Gold is one of our main exports....

Hipplebeck

(01/14/2003; 16:26:14 MDT - Msg ID: 94435)

Belgian

Have you ever considered the possibility that these central bankers, in their arrogance, actually believe their own propoganda that gold will eventually be demonetized and become just an industrial commodity?
Maybe, just like they said, the Washington agreement was done to hold UP the price of gold until they could smoothly transition into digital money, firmly in their control and without the need of gold. Gold reserves will be phased out over time completely, because they won't be needed. They DO believe they can manage the world better than God.
It really is the only explanation.
The new world order clique hates gold, and they plan to get rid of the linkage of money and gold. It represents a constraint on their power. In time, through education, if their hold is not broken, they will accomplish it. If they succeed, future man will not even understand what it means to be free.

goldfool

(01/14/2003; 17:01:27 MDT - Msg ID: 94436)

Black Blade (1/14/03; 12:12:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 94406)

Kmart to fire thousandsKmart sucks. Thank God for capitalism.

Aristotle

(01/14/2003; 17:01:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94437)

Hipplebeck (a parody of #94435)

Have you ever considered the possibility that certain posters, in their arrogance, actually believe their own propoganda that gold will eventually be monetized and become just another token currency? ... Gold ownership will be phased out over time completely, because it won't be needed. They DO believe they can manage the world better than the market majority.
It really is the only explanation.
The old world order clique hates market freedom, and they plan to always chain the idea of money around the free neck of Gold. It represents the only thing they can get their mind around. In time, through repetition of their mantra, if their hands are not broken, they will steal the value from our Golden wealth. If they succeed, future man will not even understand what it means to accumulate savings.
= = = = =

Hipplebeck, I can't be accused of anything dastardly here because if your post made a valid point at all then surely this one does, too.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

mikal

(01/14/2003; 17:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94438)

@Christian

"Where do you think the 100 tons(per annum)... goes..." Are you saying that private U.S. Au mining firms have received oil in exchange for these exports?

Christian

(01/14/2003; 18:39:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94439)

@ mikal @ goldfool

USA has exported 100+ tonnes of gold to the Middle East every year for some time now. They don't want the dollar and they are using it to buy gold, be it from whomever will sell it. Be it through government or private means. Saudi Arabia like Japan has an agreement where their U.S.Treasury bond investments are backed by gold. Most of the Middle East countries are cashing that in for Euros because the USA is unable to make good on that agreement. USA has made some trades in military hardware instead of gold. They (ME) are selling their stock holdings and moving that into Euros. For the last few years the FED has had to buy 46% of the NYSE volume to keep it from imploding. --- Kmart does not suck, it is a good company with bad managment. A few of them enriched themselves at the expense of the rest and took the Kmart ship down just like with Enron and World Com. It is called off balance sheet borrowing and reporting the funds from that loan as income so a few in managment can cash in their options before the stock crashed and left the ordinary shareholders with an empty bag just like Enron and World Com did. There is many more out there who are doing the same. IN 1997 interest expenses were 23% of profits and in 2002 interest expenses were 100% of profits. Many companies like GE, F, GM, IBM, and a whole slug of others took on a lot of new fiat debt to get out of their off balance sheet gold loans. Kmart unlike GE, F, GM, IBM, had no way of obtaining fiat credit to unload their off balance sheet gold debt. Still I feel Kmart will come out of it, but as a much smaller enterprise. After a few reverse splits Kmart is a BUY.

mikal

(01/14/2003; 19:00:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94440)

@Christian

Thanks. As for Kmart and their ilk, I'll never forget what they've done to the small-town or local hardware store. The furniture and appliance stores. The corner five-and-dime, the shoe stores or the camera shop...just for starters. Another Chinamart. ExKoreamart, Taiwanmart and Japanmart.

mikal

(01/14/2003; 19:06:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94441)

US "Psy-ops" teams seek to blunt war's impact

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,75525,00.htmlIraqi Leaders Responding to U.S. E-Mails
Tuesday, January 14, 2003
By Bret Baier
BAGHDAD, Iraq ��Since the U.S. military has started e-mailing thousands of Iraqi leaders with messages -- trying to get them to defect and trying to get them to break away from Saddam Hussein -- they have received many return e-mails, military sources told Fox News.
Some of the replies, the sources said, "are very encouraging."
The�communications�are part of the continuing psychological operations ongoing in Iraq by the U.S. military.
U.S. officials had already�said the Pentagon has been sending e-mails to Iraqi officers warning them against following orders from Saddam to use chemical or germ weapons against U.S. or allied forces.....End snipitt

TownCrier

(01/14/2003; 19:09:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94442)

Central Bank Insider update

http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/archiveindex.html2002 is archived and in the books, and the first update of the new year is upon us. See the link above for access to the latest CB insider news...

Pres Duisenberg's indomitable wife...
Foot dragging woes for Trichet...
A new look for China...
BIS too...
Ukraine: Business as usual...
CBs on the web...

Follow the link for current news or explore the archives, all just a click or two away.

R.

sector

(01/14/2003; 19:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94443)

Richard Butler, Former UN Weapons Inspector Chief

...finds himself now on the same side as the 'exiled' Scott RitterRitter threw a monkey wrench into the US war propaganda fray when he undercut the WMD status threat of Saddam. Butler excoriated him for it along with the admin.

Now as the President prepares to invade Iraq, Butler has come around to Ritter's point of view. Saddam isn't as bad as everybody thinks. The Kurds would argue a bit.

Butler on NBC Nightly News this evening used words like "Posse", "Lynch mob" to describe Bush's "Go-it-alone" war with Iraq. He was a very credible and articulate figure. He referred to the likely backlash from within the US if Bush moved without the UN for SH's oil.

Isn't it a coincidence that the UN "Blix Report Day" is the 27th with the 28th being a major gold expiration date. AND it's a few days after the Super Bowl In San Diego.

It doesn't seem to me that savvy traders will abandon their gold positions ahead of war dates ewither in oil or gold.

So Bush backs away and reaps KUDOS "avoiding war"...will oil drop? Not with the Venz out of production for a while. Will gold drop? Gold "drops" ONY when the central banks sell, so they won't be selling too much in the absense of war because they know the US balance of trade will be further dragged down without Saddam's oil and they will need every ounce of their remaining gold.

Then we have the George Bush episode of the North Korean "Kick-the-Nuclear-Policy-Can" down the road for the next administration.

What a country.

silvercollector

(01/14/2003; 19:38:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94444)

Christian

That is your (and the forum's) best post EVAR!!!!

Kudos to you!!!!

turkey hunter

(01/14/2003; 20:50:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94445)

ECB information

http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/ar2001en.pdfThe ECB holds 24.7 million oz of gold at the end of 2001 up from 24 million at the close of 2000. The increase was due to the Bank of Greece sending in some gold. The BIS also holds 3000 shares in the BIS.

If the link above works go to page 191 and read a lot more stuff. Looks like a lot of info here. I don't have time to go thru it all. Maybe someone would like to sift thru it. TH.

Waverider

(01/14/2003; 21:09:11 MDT - Msg ID: 94446)

ElGordo

Please excuse the brief diversion from Gold, but in fact I'm on the west coast of Canada - I've just returned home from Cuba. There's no Gold to speak of there, but you're right - there were a few places marked where Spanish galleons heavily laden with Gold have supposedly sunk on return trips from South America. Cuba is incredibly interesting - the Cuban peso/US dollar exchange rate is around 25:1. For instance, medical doctors earn around 500 pesos per month after 6 years training. On the other hand, for example, education, health care, all activities for children are free, and people pay the equivalent of about .20 cents per month for electricity. Everyone seems to be employed in one capacity or another. Of course there is a huge underground economy and demand for US$. The largest industry is tourism, and the greatest number of tourists come from Canada, then Europe and South America. I met only two Americans who had popped over from Mexico for a few days for a visit - the officials will not stamp American passports upon entry to the country, and in fact the Cubans are very friendly towards Americans. A highlight was the American vintage cars from the 1920's, 30's and 40's which you see everywhere. Old fords, chevy's, oldsmobiles, and studebakers on the roads which are shared with horse carts for those not fortunate enough to have a vintage car. Internet connections there are both expensive and slow. It will be interesting to see what happens when Fidel goes TU - some think civil war, many think only economic reform. The Cubans are extremely friendly, kind, and non-assuming people and there is a harmony and cadence there which I find sadly lacking in western culture. Of course one can only scratch the surface in a few weeks, but that was my take. Cheers,
Waverider

Peddler

(01/14/2003; 21:17:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94447)

Truthcaster & Cometose

Thank you for your interesting & valued response. I apologize for the delay in my reply. I must get a little rest now and then as I am trying to stay off of the "bone pile"
Respectfully
The Peddler

turkey hunter

(01/14/2003; 21:24:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94448)

correction

It should be that the ECB holds 3000 shares in the BIS
TH

Black Blade

(01/14/2003; 22:08:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94449)

IMF Readying 'Transitional' Loan to Head Off Argentine Default

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A51831-2003Jan13.html
Snippit:

More than a year after cutting off its lending to Argentina, the International Monetary Fund is poised to grant a "transitional" loan to the country, a move that is generating intense controversy because part of the motivation is to stave off a threatened default by Buenos Aires on its obligations to the IMF and other official institutions.

The loan could be approved by the IMF's executive board as early as Friday, when Argentina is due to make a payment of about $1 billion to the fund, although it might have to wait until next week, officials in Washington and Buenos Aires said yesterday.

Argentine officials have been warning that in the absence of an IMF deal they would refuse to make either the IMF payment or another $1 billion owed this week to the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank. But one high-ranking official said the country will pay "if we think there is enough evidence" that the IMF agreement is certain to be finalized.

Terms of the loan, under which Argentina would get only enough to repay about $3 billion it owes to the IMF between now and August, are still being negotiated by IMF and Argentine officials. But the loan is drawing criticism from private economists who worry that it may set a poor precedent by showing that a default threat can force the fund to lend to a country that hasn't spelled out a coherent plan for restoring growth and stability.

Black Blade: What's that old saying? Oh yeah, "Owe the bank a little and you're in trouble. Owe the bank a lot and the Bank's in trouble". Quite a funny article as the IMF is loaning funds for Argentina to pay back to the IMF and if the IMF refuses Argentina won't pay anything. The IMF (and banks) are in trouble. What a scam � a funny one too.

Black Blade

(01/14/2003; 22:13:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94450)

Venezuelan Central Bank Raises Discount Rate to 42%

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_box.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_economies&box=ad_box_all&tag=economy∣dle=ad_frame2_economies&s=APiNslRT3VmVuZXp1
Snippit:

Caracas, Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to an eight-month high to brake a 12 percent decline in the currency this month, as a nationwide strike spurs demand for dollars. The central bank raised the discount rate, the rate at which it provides short-term loans to commercial banks, to 42 percent from 40 percent, the bank said on its Web site. The bank last raised the discount rate on Oct. 1. ``It's an attempt in the right direction, but I suspect it won't be enough,'' said Jonathan Binder, who helps manage about $600 million in emerging market securities at Standard Asset Management in Miami. ``You would have to move it to 100 percent to make any real difference.''

Black Blade: 42% eh? Well isn't that special.

Black Blade

(01/14/2003; 22:19:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94451)

London's 1 Million-Pound Homes Lose Value as Jobs Cut

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_box.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_economies&box=ad_box_all&tag=economy∣dle=ad_frame2_economies&s=APiPhWBVcTG9uZG9u
Snippit:

London, Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Prices for London homes worth more than 1 million pounds ($1.6 million) are declining by at least 10 percent as bankers lose jobs and see their bonuses cut, according to real-estate agents. Asking prices may fall another 20 percent in districts such as Kensington and Chelsea in the next nine months, said Adrian Owen, a director at real-estate agent Hamptons International. Investment bankers favor the Kensington area, home to actors such as Hugh Grant. ``In blue-chip boroughs, prices outgrew themselves'' after rising as much as 60 percent in three years, Owen said. ``The slide in London will reduce the level of consumer confidence in the rest of the country,'' he said.

Black Blade: Just a sign of things to come as the real estate bubble pops. Wait until this works its way down the food chain. I expect to see much the same on this side of the pond in due time.

ElGordo

(01/14/2003; 22:36:49 MDT - Msg ID: 94452)

Anthrax alert at Fed Reserve

Postal Service Reports New Anthrax Scare in DC
Tue January 14, 2003 10:19 PM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Tuesday reported a positive initial test for the deadly anthrax bacteria at the center that checks incoming mail for such threats, the U.S. Postal Service said.

"We have a single test result from one sample out of many that are done over at the Federal Reserve," Tom Day, vice president of engineering for the U.S. Postal Service, told a news conference.

"This appears to be a very isolated incident and it is not clear at all specifically what, if any, piece of mail this came from," Day said.

"The Federal Reserve routinely tests mail delivered to its headquarters in Washington in a secure facility," he said, adding that the suspect item did not enter the headquarters building.

Twice since Sept. 11 the Fed has reported a positive initial test result for anthrax, though later tests have proved negative.

"There have been false positives," Day said on Tuesday. "Unfortunately, I believe the Federal Reserve has experienced some of that. But when you get a lab result that gives you a preliminary positive, you've got to take that seriously."

In the weeks following the Sept. 11 attacks on America in 2001, several letters containing anthrax spores were mailed through a New Jersey postal center to news media offices in Washington, New York and Florida.

Anthrax-laced letters were also sent to the offices of Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle and Vermont Sen. Patrick Leahy, both Democrats.

Five people, including two Postal workers who worked at Brentwood mail facility in Washington, died and 23 others were made ill.

No arrests have been made despite a $2.5 million reward. Law enforcement agencies said they suspected the anthrax mailings were the work of a disaffected individual, and not of a network like al Qaeda.

Day said the Postal Service was now performing precautionary tests for anthrax at the Washington mail facility which handles mail going to the Federal Reserve.

He said there was no evidence of broad contamination or of risk to employees at the mail facility. "There's absolutely nothing that indicates we have a contamination problem here," he said.

The Postal Service said it expected results of the tests at its facility early on Wednesday.
__________
Tests will determine by Wed if confirmed

Black Blade

(01/14/2003; 22:55:55 MDT - Msg ID: 94453)

Manufacturers' costs surge on high oil price

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1042490755540&p=1012571727159
Snippit:

Surging oil prices pushed up manufacturers' costs in December at the fastest rate in more than 2? years, increasing pressure on profit margins in the beleaguered sector. Although Brent crude prices eased yesterday after Opec agreed to increase production, oil prices are expected to continue to rise as Venezuela workers strike and a war in Iraq looms. The Office for National Statistics said manufacturers' input prices rose a seasonally adjusted 2.8 per cent between November and December, the biggest rise since May 2000, to stand 2.6 per cent higher over the year. Although materials comprise only a quarter of manufacturers' costs, Ciar�n Barr, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, said the higher input prices compounded the sector's problems. "This certainly does not make manufacturers' lives any easier - they're facing falling demand as well as cost increases which they may or may not be able to pass on. It all adds to the headache of being a manufacturer." Rising oil prices could also have an impact on the government's coffers.

Black Blade: The global economy is mostly distressed and there is little room for pricing advantage now. As energy costs rise these costs are no longer easily passed along to the consumer. These costs will likely fall straight to the bottom line as manufacturers deal with razor thin margins.

ElGordo

(01/14/2003; 23:04:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94454)

There are a lot of false positives for Anthrax

The Fed Reserve as a target makes sense however.
Kinda scary really, whoever sent the anthrax after 9/11
was never caught.
-----
Pizz and Trojan- They were supposed to interview those Iraqi
scientists in Cyprus soon, lets see if that gives Bush the
smoking gun he wants- or maybe Saddam won't let them leave.
In any case this seems to be the next move in the chess game.

Waverider- When my parents were retired in S Florida they
helped sponsor some Cubans to enter the US to join relatives.
When they arrived fresh from Cuba they were the sweetest
people you could ever meet. One young woman was about 20,
tall with some dutch ancestry, looked like the female version
of teofilo stevenson, incredibly beautiful.

BB- Remember when Trump was down and out to the tune of billions he owed? The bankers had to bail him out-if you owe the
bank a little-the bank owns you-if you owe the bank a lot-you
own the bank!

Black Blade

(01/14/2003; 23:09:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94455)

U.S. oil strategy targets Iraq, Russia

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030115wo41.htm
Snippit:

This is the ninth in a series of articles on international security issues facing the United States and the rest of the world. On Dec. 20 and 21 in Washington, 11 Iraqis working in the oil industry and living outside Iraq gathered for a meeting hosted by the U.S. State Department to discuss the future of Iraqi crude oil and energy. Details of what was discussed at the meeting, and even the list of attendees and the meeting's locale, have not been disclosed by the department. Though the U.S. government has remained silent as to the goal of the meeting, people associated with the oil industry have said Washington's decision to hold the conference reflects its desire to gain a greater say in Iraqi oil exports by cooperating even more closely with Iraqi dissidents, in the belief the government of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein will collapse sooner or later. If the United States can gain rights to Iraqi oil, Washington's influence on oil markets will increase drastically. Though the U.S. government has denied the allegation, many in the oil industry hold the deep-rooted opinion that the purpose of the anticipated attack on Iraq is securing U.S. crude oil interests there.

The United States and OPEC leader Saudi Arabia share a special relationship, under which Saudi Arabia stabilizes oil prices and the United States protects the country from invasion by other nations, according to Joe Barnes, a research fellow at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University in Houston. However, the situation changed completely after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States. Because many of the attackers came from Saudi Arabia, hard-liners in the United States after the attacks argued even more strongly that Saudi Arabia was the United States' real enemy. In Saudi Arabia also, anti-U.S. sentiment grew amid increasing social anxiety about various domestic problems, such as the rising unemployment rate. This sentiment was evident in the Saudi refusal to provide bases to U.S. forces in the event of an attack on Iraq. There are lingering rumors that Saudi plutocrats are withdrawing funds from the United States. The United States faces a challenging task in terms of building a new order to replace the old in the world oil market.

Black Blade: Now this is "interesting". It appears as if postwar preparations are being made to divvy up the spoils. Of securing a large source of oil will put the US in the "cat bird seat".

Black Blade

(01/14/2003; 23:24:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94456)

Chavez Loyalists Nab Caracas Police Guns

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/world/wire/sns-ap-venezuela-strike0115jan14,0,2229538.story?coll=sns%2Dap%2Dworld%2Dheadlines
Snippit:

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Soldiers loyal to President Hugo Chavez seized submachine guns and shotguns from Caracas' police department Tuesday in what the opposition mayor called a bid to undermine him. Federal interference in the capital's police department is one reason Venezuela's opposition has staged a strike -- now in its 44th day -- demanding early elections. Tuesday's raids stoked already heated tensions in this polarized nation. Greater Caracas Mayor Alfredo Pena said the weapons seizure stripped police of their ability to control street protests that have erupted almost daily since the strike began Dec. 2. Five people have died in strike-related demonstrations. Strike leader Manuel Cova said opponents would "strengthen the struggle to topple" Chavez in response to the raids. "This demonstrates the antidemocratic and authoritarian way in which this government acts," said Cova, leader of the Venezuelan Workers Confederation, the country's largest labor union. Troops searched several police stations at dawn, confiscating submachine guns and 12-gauge shotguns used to fire rubber bullets and tear gas, said Cmdr. Freddy Torres, the department's legal consultant. Officers were allowed to keep their standard-issue .38-caliber pistols. It was not clear how long the seizure would last.

Black Blade: There are other reports today that opposition forces too have armed and several Venezuelan soldiers have defected to the opposition along with the National Guard. It appears that Civil War is a very real possibility and the result could be removal of Venezuelan oil from the global supply-demand equation.

spot light

(01/15/2003; 00:02:16 MDT - Msg ID: 94457)

Belgian's challenge

Belgian said:
Miner's forward sales, Bullion Banks, Hyper short positions in Gold...and tutti quanti are well documented. And there is always, only
one reason given for this : A policy of dollar-strength ! And therefore I do repeat my question again : Why are/should, European CBs,
co-operating on a US-policy for dollar-strength, whith so called CB goldsales...when those same euro-CBs created their own currency,
the euro ?

Have you an answer dearest Ari or anyone else ?

Have you considered that the reserves that back the currency issued by Europe are mostly in dollars. If the dollar became worthless they then have wall paper backing their citizens deposits. All of the US T-debt they hold would be worthless. Also, the US supermarket for their exports would no longer exist and they would face depression and no amunition to be reelected.

Let's just say that they didn't sell gold. They held it in reserve. Gold would regain the role it played for thousands of years. Gold would be a barometer of problems in the currency of the issuing country. Interest rates would rise until either the problems were corrected or the currency collapsed. The euro,in my opinon, is a defensive move on the part of Europe to release itself from the US reserve currency position which has enabled the US to purchase their goods for decades with a credit card and when the bill comes due pay it off with the credit card and on and on. This is a large part of the reason for the high US standard of living. The US has a vested interest in keeping the credit card game going. This involves the barometer, gold, to be put out of working order.

GATA has done a heroic job of exposing the possibilities of how this could have been accomplished. Is this enough or do you need more?

Black Blade

(01/15/2003; 00:08:45 MDT - Msg ID: 94458)

Natural gas prices rise as temps fall

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/usatoday/20030114/bs_usatoday/4776047
Snippit:

WASHINGTON -- Natural gas prices are climbing quickly, shocking millions of homeowners across the country as they open their winter energy bills. Futures prices for natural gas are up more than 130% from last year and are the highest since April 2001. The gain not only is squeezing budgets for the 55% of U.S. homeowners who use natural gas to heat their homes, it's also bad news for the economy. As consumers spend more money on energy, they have less cash to spend in other areas, such as department stores or beauty shops, that need a boost. Relief from the higher costs is nowhere in sight. The price gains have been much higher than predicted. In September, the EIA estimated the cost of heating a home with natural gas would rise 17% for the October-March winter season from last year. Now, the agency is expecting the gain to be twice that, with bills totaling more than $800 this winter.

What's behind the increase:

* It's colder this winter than last winter, which was the ninth warmest in the USA since recordkeeping began in 1895, according to The Weather Channel. Last winter was the warmest on record for the Northeast. Lower temperatures this year are leading to increased demand. Forecasters anticipate lower temperatures to continue in coming weeks.

* Oil prices have been rising for months because of a general strike in Venezuela and concerns about what will happen to oil supplies if the USA goes to war against Iraq. Because natural gas can often be used in place of oil, especially in industry, a rise in oil prices usually translates into higher natural gas prices.

Prices are also up for other forms of energy. The EIA estimates winter heating bills will be up 43% for heating oil customers, 20% for propane and 12% for electricity this year. Despite the gain, prices are not expected to come close to winter 2000-01, when costs rose to the highest in more than a decade.

Black Blade: NatGas prices (and electricity by association) are poised to rise further as the current Artic Blast will result in huge draws from storage over the next few weeks � possibly more than 200 bcf/week beginning with next weeks EIA data. If forecasts are correct this may last well into February. This of course will pressure already strapped consumers and pressure corporate bottom lines pushing the US economy deeper into recession all at a time when crude oil prices are already high and possibly rising higher adding even more pressure to both consumers and business.

Trojan

(01/15/2003; 00:30:14 MDT - Msg ID: 94459)

John le Carre Speaks Out...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0%2C%2C482-543296%2C00.htmlHe Tried to Kill my Daddy you know.

I'm getting sick and tired of this. That's my Timetable.

Trojan

(01/15/2003; 00:43:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94460)

The Top Ten Conspiracy Favorites

http://www.popmatters.com/features/021227-conspiracy.shtmlI like number 6 about those Puts before September 11
Bin Laden is an Astute Financier. Which is your Favorite ? :-)

It is very interesting reading regardless whether you buy any of them or not.

The Human Mind is a fascinating thing.

Some of them do have logic and facts.

Usul

(01/15/2003; 01:04:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94461)

Gold prices in India touch six-year high

http://cities.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=40969Says president of the Chandigarh Jewellers� Association Anil Talwar: ''The US currency has been losing its value. Lots of people have burnt their fingers investing in US stock...''

Usul

(01/15/2003; 01:07:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94462)

The dollar is falling!

http://www.philstar.com/philstar/News200301150712.htmThe Philippine Star

"The party has to end sometime. And it seemed to have started to wind down towards the end of last year when the dollar started to lose ground to both the euro and the yen, even as there is no reason for these currencies to appreciate on their own. Even gold started to move up, regaining its luster as a refuge in troubled times..."

Belgian

(01/15/2003; 01:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94463)

Re :

spot light : Thanks for your answer. Yes, I got the picture.

Trojan : Anything will be fabricated to get the oil. They want it and we need it !

Ari and Hipplebeck : "Euroland Gold reallocations" :
Great to see these two extreme visions, about Gold, on the same page. Healthy LOL with some HaHaaa!

Gold the ordinary *commodity* versus Gold the universal conclusion of *wealth*.

In French they say : Entre les deux, mon coeur balance. (between both my hart balances). Not only our harts but many other on this planet.

Any Gold-comment or vision can now be cataloged under one of these two chapters : Commodity or Wealth.

Commodity Gold exists under a multitude of forms. Gold-wealth is only physical as per definition. In order to obtain maximum degrees of "confusion" and manipulation/maneuvering-space...both, commodity and wealth, should be amalgamed / mixed ! Who's doing this and why ? Answer : Those who want to separate commodity, completely from the wealth of Gold ! Private Gold-Giants in the first place and a select group of Officials to be found in CB-circles.

Be very careful when *Gold-Wealth* desires to evolve into *Gold-Power* !!!

From whatever corner such a desire might be coming...it will be an all-embracing dead-knell around the targetted pray.

Continuously hoping for something "in-between" is idle, when time lapses, imvho of course.

CBs and / or Gold-Giants go for Gold up to the finish or dispose it off, entirely ! There is no such thing as a little bit of Gold for a rainy day.

Thanks to Ari, who used the correct word "GOLD REALLOCATIONS" we have evidence for the direction that has been chosen by a select group of CBs. China + 100 tonnes as a starter and Saudi (ME) "real" Gold-stashes...UNKNOWN !

Make no mistake about "man" ALWAYS wanting to break free !
Giants first...swarfs later !

Thank you gentlemen for having strengthened my believes with your points of view. A real pleasure.

Spartacus

(01/15/2003; 01:28:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94464)

O'Neill criticises Bush tax-cut plans

http://www.business.scotsman.com/economy.cfm?id=47072003
OUSTED US treasury secretary Paul O�Neill slammed the economic recovery package launched last week by President George W Bush. Speaking out for the first time since he was forced from his post during a major re-shuffle of White House economists last month, O�Neill said the idea the government will be able to stimulate the US economy in the short-term is "ridiculous". --

Belgian

(01/15/2003; 02:20:14 MDT - Msg ID: 94465)

Commodity >< Wealth

Commodity Gold is used (abused) as an Hedge. Anyone's currency, losing on exchange rate or purchasing power, will use the Gold-refuge as a tool, temporary or not, to do something about the currency he's holding/trading.
Short : dollar down = Gold up.

But why should one hedge (protect) any confetti/currency with a technical paper-maneuver on the back of the wealth of ages, GOLD !?

Seeking refuge for currency deluge with Gold-derivatives, will come to an end, because there is ever more confetti rain for a declining amount of available physical Gold.
More and more currencies want to hide under a smaller and smaller Gold-umbrella.

It is this ongoing DRAMA, that will cause Gold to break free.
*Free Gold* making the public understand that Gold is nothing but "wealth". I'll leave it in the middle who or how, Gold will break free. Does it really matter if it is the euro-builders or a growing group of Gold-Giants.
It is more important to understand "why" Gold, finally, has to break free.

The purpose for the past 20 years of obscenely priced (devaluated) Gold is to hide the gigantic "discrepanty" between the cosmic amount of confetti against the minuscule availability of "free" physical Gold !

Now, this reasoning can be extended to its extremes and suggest that ALL gold should be "commodizised" and yes, why not, even banned from being used as an hedge. No way brothers and sisters. It will be the other way around.

There will be no paper-Gold anymore to provide a virtual refuge for ever degrading currencies. It is the euro-builders that saw this golden """ opportunity """ . And yes indeed, they must be very silent about this, for public reasons. Or do you expect that the printers of confetti are going to shout from the roofs that confetti is as worthless as can be ? Come on !

Topaz

(01/15/2003; 02:23:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94466)

Ari.

So, as a "conceptual" currency, the E or $ don't qualify as ursury...but a (say) Gold standard or Gold backed one does.
Do I understand you Sire?

Christian

(01/15/2003; 03:11:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94467)

Free trade in banking = free trade in swindle.

How can a bank "lend out" far more than they have? By using the magic of the "fraction" in the fractional reserve system. Banks lease gold (warehouse receipts), sell it (exchange the receipt for cash), write an IOU for the least gold, and deposit the funds in their account. From that deposit, they create loans based on the magic of the fraction in the fractional reserve system. A $10,000 deposit with a 10% reserve clause that the large banks have, can expand into $100,000 in credit creation without printing one single note. A $10,000 deposit with a 3% reserve clause that the small banks have, can expand into $300,000. A $10,000 commodity gold deposit with the present 3% reserve clause that all banks have, can expand to $300,000 worth of credit creation gold!!!!!! This sort of swindle is dignified by the term "fractional reserve banking" which means that bank deposits used in making these loans are backed by only a small fraction of cash they promise to pay. With all of this credit creation not one dollar is printed to make it possible for repayment. If, if, and only if the borrower was smart enough to take the loan proceeds to the bank and turn it into cash, the bank would be forced to write a check to the Federal Reserve, who would have to print it. Less then 1% of all borrowers do it. Banks know it, and to avoid that happening, the bank will issue the check to whatever purpose you borrowed the money for.--- There is a reason why the FED is forced to buy 46% of the entire NYSE volume. Because without it there would be no value left to the NYSE stocks. Same is now happening to Treasury Bonds. The FED has instructed mutual funds to sell offshore holdings because the offshore mutual funds are forced to do the same with their US investments. People should take a very close look at Bush's tax cut on dividents. People need to understand The Excludable Distribution part of an Excludable Distribution Account (EDA). For the life of me I can not understand why so many college educated people that we have can be so stupid to fall for such tricks. I can not believe that our politicians are so corrupted that they say one thing that sounds good, but mean something else when it becomes law. I can't believe the nit wits on the Supreme Court are so stupid.

Topaz

(01/15/2003; 03:34:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94468)

Sierra, Hipplebeck.

The number of times these last several weeks, when reading both your post's I've said to myself "wish I'd said that"..is astounding. A kindred spirit here, sure as egg's.
Lately, with insight from Ari and Belgian etal, I'm thinking we're ever so slightly off base.
An analogy if I may will demonstrate my point:-
You are the personnel Manager of a firm who is seeking to fill a position on staff (the encumbent has just retired). In hindsight old Bill did a good job but it is Managements opinion that if possible, you should secure a slightly more qualified soul to fill Bill's shoes...and increase the Salary accordingly.
So you frame the advert for the new Bill including all the requisite - self-motivated, team-man, think outside the Box etc....The end result being quite far removed from being a descriptive of Bill's actual job.

I am Bill's counterpart at another unrelated Firm and read the Ad. hmmm! I think...here's an opportunity to better myself in life. a vaguely similar sounding Job to the one I'm doing now, and more pay, but I'm not really qualified. Never mind I'll apply anyway.
So I dust off the Resume, Gild the Lily to suit and apply...meeting all the criteria.
At the interview you hold the line of the Ad and I don't flinch from the Resume....and I get the Job.
After several week's being on my best behaviour I settle into Bill's position, no more no less and am a contented soul. The Firm is also happy having secured a competent and better calibre Employee than old Bill.
A Win-Win situation...or two wrongs making a right!
In the real world on most occasions, this is exactly what happens.

The gist of this long-winded diatribe is that in our zeal to identify a perfect Global alt to the $ going forward, perhaps we're guilty of "overspecifying the position" to the point where applicants are non-existant.
The Gold/Silver in circulation option as proposed/condoned by the Islamic brotherhood cannot accomodate our western mindset and the $ model...well, enough said!
I'm prepared to cut Belgian and the Euro a little slack from here on out...what say you?

LeSin

(01/15/2003; 04:15:46 MDT - Msg ID: 94469)

Currency Perspective & Daily Reports - Gain You Some

www.universityforex.com/news.
EURO v US$

http://www.universityforex.com/news.html

This is an interesting site that includes sufficient background information from the "Players" with daily
currency & forex reports, comments & essays.

Cheers "S"

LeSin

(01/15/2003; 04:19:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94470)

EURO v USD INFO - @ Correct Link

http://www.universityforex.com/news.html
Let us try again

Topaz

(01/15/2003; 04:24:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94471)

This Gold "bull####"

Some may recall last May/June, just prior to the start of the Q2 reporting season the Dollar took a nosedive vis E. It was my thoughts at the time that this was directly related to the repatriation of profits in newly overvalued currencies, the sole purpose of which was to boost the Dow.
I went off half-cocked "Dow 10k dead ahead" (lost a bit on call warrants to boot)...anyway it didn't quite happen and I've been "out" since.
Well! Lo and behold, what's this then; EVERY QUARTER...JUST BEFORE REPORTING, THE DOLLAR TAKES A HIT....THEN PLATEAU'S TILL NEXT TIME.
If they don't reflate the Dow this quarter, late March should see the cycle repeated...Gold will hover around $350 until then, then moved "as req'd". Let's watch!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/15/2003; 04:49:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94472)

**NEW** TOLL FREE PHONE numbers especially for our INTERNATIONAL CLIENTS.

http://www.usagold.com/phone.html

Living Across the Water, or Downunder? No worries, Mate.
Your access to gold is an easy phone call away.

This international information page is for our clients and friends just like you.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals has recently fulfilled gold orders for clients in

European Delivery New Zealand
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and,
of course,
the United States.

Hipplebeck

(01/15/2003; 05:19:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94473)

Aristotle

Why do you believe using gold as money robs you of your gold wealth?
How does using gold as money make it not free?

Hipplebeck

(01/15/2003; 05:32:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94474)

From Jim Sinclair VIP: The US Dollar - Al Qaeda's Target of Choice? (Q & A Response)

http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/vip/2003/0113.htmJim Sinclair on the power of gold

Hipplebeck

(01/15/2003; 05:53:49 MDT - Msg ID: 94475)

Aristotle-- to help me understand

from it's peak of 800 some odd dollars in the eighties, to it's low of 252 dollars a couple of years ago, did your gold in your possession lose value?

Golden Bear

(01/15/2003; 05:56:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94476)

Christian (1/15/03; 03:11:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 94467)

"....I can't believe the nit wits on the Supreme Court are so stupid...."

They are not stupid, they are bought and paid for... it makes life so much easier when ones morals don't interfere with ones greed.

Black Blade

(01/15/2003; 06:26:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94477)

YIKES!!! That's One Ugly Graph!

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Hopefully just a glitch! Tell me someone hit the wrong key.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/15/2003; 06:31:12 MDT - Msg ID: 94478)

Quick! Buying Opportunity Before It Rebounds!

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegoldnewyork.html
Time to snap up a few ounces on the dip.

- Black Blade

CoBra(too)

(01/15/2003; 06:33:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94479)

Derivatives are No Risk!

canamami

(01/15/2003; 07:07:02 MDT - Msg ID: 94480)

Failure of the POG to rise yesterday....

...was in retrospect a signal to exit for a few days. POG fell when it should have risen. PPT was determined to hold at $355.00, and no one like the Chinese stood up to take them out. Given the huge recent rally in POG, this is perhaps just a set back, but whenever I invest in gold-related investments, something like this happens. Even with the recent rally, those CB reserves are just like a permanent cloudy day, IMHO. One never knows when the rain will start.

Christian

(01/15/2003; 07:34:45 MDT - Msg ID: 94481)

(No Subject)

Why are the U.S. Treasury obligations with Japan and Saudi Arabia payable with gold on demand off the books? Why do most corporations use off balance sheet accounting to account the gold loans payable in gold? Why are most of our representatives in government against H.R. 3732 Monetary Reform and Accountability Act? Why did "O'Neil" say, "I'm looking forward to prosperity when the bottom falls out? A crashed dollar will slow imports and help keep a few more manufacturing plants open. Nowdays a large amount of money goes no-where but soon as we deflate, a small amount of money will go a long way like it did in the last depression. People can become wealthy as a few did in the last depression." -- How does a person get out of $100,000 debt load with $5,000 worth of funds in circulation? -- The Solyom case got to the United States Supreme Court. On 3 October 1983 the Court issued this: The Appeal Is Dismissed For Want Of A Substantial Federal Question. Why can't the Supreme Court uphold the Constitution? ----- I am lookin forward to O'Neil's crashed $. I would rather pay a $1.00 an acre then $125.00 an acre.

canamami

(01/15/2003; 07:54:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94482)

Christian, good post

You (and O'Neil impliedly) posit a stark choice: Monetize or depress. Either way, gold is a good asset to hold, as a hedge against either eventuality.

(01/15/2003; 08:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94483)

(No Subject)

This gold bull doesn't want anyone to ride it!!! It's bucking and kicking everyone off who isn't holding on real tight. Dollar is now weaker after opening stronger. Dimes to donuts say we end higher on gold....this man's opinion.

G$

contrarian

(01/15/2003; 08:14:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94484)

Christian, your post--how the fed buys stocks

You posted:
...There is a reason why the FED is forced to buy 46% of the entire NYSE volume. Because without it there would be no value left to the NYSE stocks. Same is now happening to Treasury Bonds. The FED has instructed mutual funds to sell offshore holdings because the offshore mutual funds are forced to do the same with their US investments. People should take a very close look at Bush's tax cut on dividents. People need to understand The Excludable Distribution part of an Excludable Distribution Account (EDA). For the life of me I can not understand why so many college educated people that we have can be so stupid to fall for such tricks. I can not believe that our politicians are so corrupted that they say one thing that sounds good, but mean something else when it becomes law. I can't believe the nit wits on the Supreme Court are so stupid.

Do you mean the Fed buys stocks? How does this happen? I know that the Fed is a private bank owned by Lehman, Rothschild, Goldman, Citibank, etc. Does the Fed have these member banks actually buy lots of the stocks?

I've heard about this for some time, but am wondering what the mechanism is...

GoldnSilver2002

(01/15/2003; 08:27:53 MDT - Msg ID: 94485)

Smoke and mirrors,fed pysche

Well a lot of people apparently dropped all their gold as the markets tank.A continuing game of gold going from weak to stronger hands.China didnt step up?Wouldnt you wait for the fed trained suckers to drop their gold first too?One day soon something will take gold up so fast that all the sellers will look back and say "what 370 today!??" Like i said,ever since the chinese exchange has opened the bottom gets higher and higher.350 is up,but if you ask the u.s media somehow gold is down.Its all a game,but every time they hit it down,there will be buyers who have been waiting their turn to get in.

Boxman

(01/15/2003; 08:50:42 MDT - Msg ID: 94486)

The MOGAMBO GURU's latest.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/You have to appreciate this man's writing style. This is good for a great many chuckles.

Snip:

"...In case anybody accuses me of being a wishy-washy, profane, dim-witted, foul-smelling, babbling, ugly, illiterate, boorish, lazy, mentally ill and ill-tempered bonehead, I say, hey! I am NOT wishy-washy! About gold, anyway, and you tell them that I said, in print, right here, knowing that in the future you are probably going to be called as a witness by my team of crackerjack lawyers who will prove that I deserve a Nobel Prize for the "Best Investment Advice Of The Last Thousand Years Or So Which Was To Buy Gold and Shares of Gold Mining Companies at These Bargain Prices," so pay attention, and mentally note that I distinctly and in no uncertain terms said that you should be buying gold mining shares and gold bullion with every dime you have at your disposal, and should mortgage the farm to get money to buy more gold, and should shake down your children, relatives and neighbors for money to buy more gold, and even beg spare change from complete strangers to get money to buy more gold..."

Another snip:

"On the other hand, the Elliott Wave people are on record as saying that they think that the little bull market in gold is nearing the end, and that they have a long-term target for gold at less than $200 per ounce. Hmmm, let me think about that for a second. Nope, I've thought it over and I must say that I have to disagree. In fact, not only do I disagree, but I will jump a few steps of incremental denial of that statement, and say this: to predict that gold will fall to levels anywhere near that price is laughably ludicrous to us lunatic rackpot gold bugs out here."

(01/15/2003; 08:52:59 MDT - Msg ID: 94487)

To CB2, Belgian and the rest of my European friends:

The European Commission is proving too cumbersome, and it lacks full legitimacy -- something which could become a serious problem down the road if policies are developed anathema to the will of the European peoples. Europe cannot pretend to have a Republic or a Democracy when the Commission appears to be little more than a representation of some amorphous, behind-closed-doors political/corporate oligarchy that everyone once in a while springs a surprise referendum on the people before the targeted voters completely understand what's behind it. There needs to be a true referendum, or Genesis, in the individual European states, sanctioned by the voters, to send two representatives from each state to a small-state location (say Vienna) -- with the express purpose of establishing a European state by and for the people. This way whatever operating document they produce will have the ring of legitimacy and Europe can move forward with its union and government spawned therof confidently (not the other way around and not with a repetitive glance over the shoulder). The U.S. Declaration of Independence, Constitution and Bill of Rights are children of the Enlightenment (Thank you Europe) -- a philosophical grounding absent in the painful birthing now in progress in Europe. In other words, my old friend, the whole process lacks fundamental grounding. What does Europe stand for? What does it want embodied in its government? I think this would come out in a real Constitutional convention mandated by the European peoples

As it stands, Europe is not even a good confederation let alone a union. There seems to be no singulariy of purpose. I know we are years away from anything substantive on this level, but I do think someone should point out that Europe's start in this direction has been less than inspiring. One cannot launch a currency in a vacuum and expect phenomenal results; one cannot legitimize a currency, or pretend to super-power status without the presence of strong military to defend that currency's (and business) interests; one cannot challenge the United States for supremacy if it cannot put together even the simplest beginnings of unified government. The seed may produce a shoot, but the shoot is likely to wither. (And Belgian these criticism's do not undermine your defense of the euro. The single currency will still make headway against the dollar, but not as great as it could be. Today's euro is a start, not a finished product.) In the Financial Times this morning one of Europe's economic leaders complained that Europe is waiting for the United States to lead the recovery. That tells us where we are. . . .but hopefully not where we are going.

As you can tell from all this, I am not opposed to a politically unifed Europe "if that's what the European people want." I think many Americans would welcome another responsible party on the world stage, particularly if it would translate to a reduction of our own cumbersome government and taxes. (Why, for example, does the world look to the United States to reign in N.Korea? Aren't we all at risk?) Make noise of a strong government and you will have Sweden and Britain knocking on the door for entry, not to speak of a renewed sense of purpose among the current members. At the moment, the best advice to both those countries would be to stand down and see what Europe decides to do. From the outside, it looks like the European people themselves are not completely sold on this confederation and currency -- and in my view, the reason for that is the drift and lack of purpose. For Europe to become Europe, the people must begin to think as Europeans.
A genuine Constitutional Convention would act as a launching pad.

Now, I know this is coming from a citizen who's country is going through one of its periods of regression, but I hope that won't disqualify me from making this comment, and a few others I might have on the subject. I've never shrunk from providing advice to my own country, I hope you do not think me forward if I offer an opinion on yours -- but then again to either of you think of Europe as your country??

My best, CB, Belgian. . . .and respectfully, MK

Golden Bear

(01/15/2003; 09:12:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94488)

Fannie in trouble?

Bloomberg just reported Fannie Mae's net income down 52% on derivatives.

The beginning of the end for the housing bubble...

Christian

(01/15/2003; 09:25:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94489)

@ contrarian

Yes the Fed buys stocks- big time. The FED is made up of member banks, who now are forced to hold the stock market from crashing. Offshore investors are selling. On the last few trading days we had a large increase in short positions, and today and for next few days we should have the same people who established short positions sell their long positions. Note the put and call options on stocks. Gold price and stocks should be weak for the next 7 trading days, until all that money made on the short side goes long. The Bush Clan is shorting this market with everything they have and then some (leverage). We should top out this month and around April 10th and then everything will head south price wise. I see the Dow at 6,000 range by July, and I see gold going over $400 by then at least once and $467 by the end of the year.

Mr Gresham

(01/15/2003; 09:45:15 MDT - Msg ID: 94490)

MK: Europe

What a stimulating collection of thoughts to run into over my first cuppa.

My impression of most Europeans I know is that their goal in life is to just live and let live. The idea of a purpose or mission for their countries let alone continent is far, far from their minds.

And the "mere" avoidance of war, or even of US domination, is hardly enough to overcome that inertia.

Of course, most national "missions" are of the idiot militaristic variety (or Fuehrer advancing his own ego by pushing his sheep toward the front) so we ought to be glad to be spared those. We could even hope that as the US matures, it mellows out and acts less like the "Castle on the Hill" than the Good Neighbor it once called itself.

I wonder if modern Europeans (or their children) can reach back into their best philosophical traditions, as you cite, and slide on into a de facto union, with or without a Convention declaring such. Perhaps that is what our friend here -- (only 1 window open -- can't go back to look 2 days ago) -- was mentioning about the knitting together at the lower levels of functioning. (I was so surprised the first time I drove ;non-stop through from Netherlands to Italy in a few hours.)

Maybe it will be more of an unconscious, organic unifying, rather than a declared or imposed one, with commissions "withering" away?

Mr Gresham

(01/15/2003; 09:53:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94491)

Husky #94186

It was Husky, on Sunday AM :"Americans do not understand the extent to which political integration had already been achieved at the lower layers, e.g. daily life, nor the reasons why the uppermost layers have nominally been left as-is (in part so as to not allow foreign powers a handle to grab onto to subvert the democratic process). It isn't supposed to look and smell like a United States of Europe. So you're not going to find much insight into what's going on with it by using that model as a yardstick."

I recall there being discussion over that post, which I couldn't keep up reading thoroughly. But I guess I'd have to say, for me, that Europe's prospects are a black box, some of that perhaps intentional. Time to get out of my American box, and go look up some of my old acquaintances there.

canamami

(01/15/2003; 10:00:16 MDT - Msg ID: 94492)

MK, good points re Europe

A friend has family in Europe, and recently returned from a visit. He finds the Euro is having a positive effect, especially since the notes have come out. It is triggering some efficiencies, now that costs/prices are more transparent. As you said however, the EU/Euro are works in progess.

CoBra(too)

(01/15/2003; 10:01:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94493)

@ MK - Very valid Concerns on the EU and its Common Currency

Just a short reply, as I will work on a more indepth one. May take a few days as particularily everything is more in flux again. Only today Chirac and Schr�der offered a new way to elect the Commission President by the EU Parliament,
while the EU Presidency should be elected on a vote by the member states.

First reactions, as far as I can discern, the smaller member countries are against it, fearing to be steamrolled by the major states. Still, the musical chair like 6 months rotational presidency is totally baloney - as each country by chance holding this status is using to their max benefit. And more-over, it's already impractible within 15 member states, just think about the headache for 25 states.

Of course, you're right, under these pretensions and pretexts the EU will never be a Union of common goals in foreign, economic and defense policy.

Though, only reflect on the history of almost perpetual wars between european nations for ever and in particular the last 2 WW's.

As the Schuman/Adenauer Plan to found the Montan Union - the nucleus of an integrated trading zone for steel, iron ore and scrap, in reality it was the first step towards appeasement after these devastating wars between european states.

So let us take it one step at a time and don't forget the foundations of the US primarily stemmed from refugees, from parts of europe, which have been oppressed too long and were looking to escape their oppressors.

As the US Constitution started as a drive from very able, courageous and, in some cases very wise men - it was a rebellion against their oppressors of old. Thank god, you persevered, at least today we all know it's possible!

As you know, there is a Convent in place since 9 months for a Common EU Constitution, led by Giscard D'estaing, which will put its recommendations before the EU Parliament before the the end of January. By June the whole convent should be fleshed out towards more substance and I, personally feel we either venture onwards on that road and come to acceptible conclusions for all, or fail miserably, which I don't even want to determine.

Well, as I've said - please regard this as just an off the cuff reply - and thank you for your thoughts ... Best cb2

sector

(01/15/2003; 10:22:49 MDT - Msg ID: 94494)

Blair/Bush Jan 31 Meeting [Drudge]

Maybe there's a tiny little "delay" in the war?Caused by Turkey's new secular Islamic leader, Gul and his refusal to base thousands of defacto, anti-muslim, US combatants in his homeland. There certainly has been a great deal of shuttle diplomacy around the capitals of the ME since he made that declaration.

Methinks there won't be a war. Too much UN, Russian, French, organized, oil-focused flak. Even John LeCarre is opposed [see the excellent post link below].

With the Northern attack route blocked therefore the Kirkuk and Mosol fields out of Bush's reach he is left only with the very rich "Elephant" oil resource just north of Kuwait. But there's the rub.

How can the President possibly justify a "Taking" of those fields in Iraq's far South as having anything to do with WMD? He would lay siege to Basra but that oil city has never been linked to WMD in any previous weapons mapping projects so the whole strategy thing is just a bit warped.

The result is a "Meeting" with Blair and Bush on Jan 31, 2003. Could they be throwing in the towel? Declaring victory for having drawn attention to the bad guy?

Without Iraq's oil the US economic future is bleak. A really big plunge into Easter.

A Canadian

(01/15/2003; 10:28:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94495)

SEC now requires GAAP and PRO FORMA be reported together.

You mean it's time to put put away the crack pipe? How we gonna pump the shares? Even lemmings can read. How we gonna save tax on dividends that don't exist? How we gonna hide P/E's ? With the elephants? Pensions underfunded, options to convert, off balance sheet shenanigans to bring home. Party's over kids! Grab your golden loot bags and go home.

(01/15/2003; 10:47:48 MDT - Msg ID: 94496)

@ Christian - usagold.com msg#: 94481

Christian - you asked...
"Why can't the Supreme Court uphold the Constitution?"

I believe the Constitution died in 1865 at Appomattox.
We as Americans have been very slow to realize this.

Henri

(01/15/2003; 10:49:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94497)

MK msg 94487

Your statement

"...There needs to be a true referendum, or Genesis, in the individual European states, sanctioned by the voters, to send two representatives from each state to a small-state location (say Vienna) -- with the express purpose of establishing a European state by and for the people. ..."

A European state by and for the people would be an extreme deviation for europe in general. In order to create such a state, all of eurpoe would have to recognize the rights of individuals (with legal standing), above those of groups.

It would create sovereign individuals...the first purpose of the US Constitution.

While our individual rights have slowly been usurped by a creeping nemesis, first by debasing of the currency and then by the corruption of the process, europe has the potential and capacity to refresh these ideals anew.

Will they?

Doubtful...it is contrary to their very thought processes...yet, in desiring to have and retain national identities, they express desire to capture the very basis of identity...the individual. perhaps they have yet to realize. National identity arises spontaneously from a sense of identity of the populace. It cannot be "assigned". If the people are managed, they will never be given the power to manage the managers.

Sierra Madre

(01/15/2003; 11:00:49 MDT - Msg ID: 94498)

Cobra2: We're back to square one...

Rotating Presidency....two presidents...small countries steamrollered by big ones...Ah! the problems of "Democracy".

Sounds like the problems of Frederic Barbarossa, 1100's...aspired and fought to be THE Holy Roman Emperor and the master of Europe...in an attempt to attain this high status, we read in Humberto Eco's fantastic novel "Baudolino", he had to be REX ET SACERDOS, King and High Priest.

Maybe that's the formula. However, I can't really visualize Gerhard Schoeder as "Rex et Sacerdos" - nor any other politician. Chirac? Don't make me laugh!

US secret services will be active in Europe, promoting divisions and discord. Easy pickin's.

What a mess! Buy gold, keep away from crowds, don't join "demonstrations", low profile, these times are going to be super dangerous.

Sierra

Cometose

(01/15/2003; 11:03:34 MDT - Msg ID: 94499)

War/ or Exquisite form of dancing

Reminds me of a time when I was school age when there was a continual roster of "fights" scheduled after school in one of the alleyways .....
During one of the fights I attended ; the fight went on for 10 minutes without a punch being thrown....and shortly after the crowd(audience) went away; I am sure subsided...

Looks like Sadaam did the unthinkable and caught everyone off guard ducking out of the competition....opting for exile..........leaving domestic policy jerks around the mess scratching their heads like the monkeys they are...DUh ...what do we do now??? while the sold out MONEY MONGERING ***TURDS in the background frantically dash back and forth behind the "curtain" deciphering HOW to MAKE MONEY OUT OF THIS NOW . It so much harder to loot since the papering infrastructure has not yet arrived in that part of the world. Perhaps they can impose on friends in the Fourth Dimension to beam the oil up into NASA II space ships and then deposit it in ROSWELL...

That leaves RUSSIA, Turkey , and the US. Now that there's no villain to depose , guess they have to fight it out with each other....wonder if someone else may show up for these festivities....

I suggest that Donald Rumsfeld should duke it out with his counterpart from RUSSIA....the winner of that match can take on his couterpart from TURKEY. If Donald winds up in the Final .....He should have to fight the Turkish counterpart and his couterpart from North Korea at the same time.... Let the Military attend and use Bankers MONEY as betting derivitives wagers on the outcome....Then whoever wins ...... has to divide the spoils (oil) to the militarymen (who would have had to fight) of that country .

a nation of one

(01/15/2003; 11:10:01 MDT - Msg ID: 94500)

in text

hh,ll

Sierra Madre

(01/15/2003; 11:24:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94501)

Topaz: the question of alternatives in monetary matters...

The situation looks bleak. Intellect is out of touch with Reality. Fraud, deception (Mr. O'Neil's word), obfuscation, confusion, dissolution...the world is in one Hell of a Mess.

And there is no reprieve, no way out from the mess. Nature's punishment for avoiding Reality is Death. This is where Intellect has brought us: intellectuals of the world chose the path of the Flight from Reality.

Gold is Reality, gold is truth. All we can do, in the material world, is to get some and prepare for the worst.

For those who believe in a world beyond the scope of the senses, there is prayer.

The world's economic distortions are beyond recovery. A terrible adjustment is awaiting us, and it is inevitable.

Sorry to be so gloomy.

P.S. the Mayan calendar comes to an end on Dec. 22, 2012. Is this just a coincidence?

Sierra

CoBra(too)

(01/15/2003; 12:02:28 MDT - Msg ID: 94502)

Sierra - Back to Square One?

Maybe, though I feel Europe has learned an important lesson. Isn't the US in a similar position now, Europe has postulated to be in for so (or to) long? A position of ruling the rest of the world, according to the whims of their establishment - or in other words what's good for ... insert whatever ... I'll try GM is good for the US and so it has to be good for the rest of the world!

No, I feel we're just again starting from Square One and the EU tries to fill in the blanks one by one. Starting from a common belief to avoid (any) war by co-operating in commerce (Montan Union). Pan-European movements may have accelerated the basic idea.

s Europe is still - way, or even eons - away from the common goals I would envision - and manifold obstacles stand in the way - the drive and perception of a common trading zone, maturing into a somewhat more than economical treaty are already in place. The next steps may be crucial to the succes or failure of this grand experiment.

... And, maybe I should mention John Locke's unlucky and forced "departure" from England to the Netherlands as he published his, essentially natural human rights "Essay concerning human understanding" back in 1690. And a few millenium before him the city states of ancient Greece - Sparta - already formulated similar fundamental ideas.

The barbarians of old - Gallians, Celts, Gotes and other historical relics, once they 'occupied' the new territories, by wiping out even older cultures - Maya's, Inka's and even Indians have all the right to judge historical facts?

And yes, I've read Umberto Eco, though I'm aware of his personal too.

I'd say step by step - and even a step back from time to time - is a lot better than what we've seen so far by trying to put and keep a "wrong for most of the unwashed rest of the world" in distress and subdue them by new fangled hegemonial wrongs...

Oh well, really got me thinking and will answer in due course ... cb2

GratefulForGold

(01/15/2003; 12:32:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94503)

sector #94494 -- Delay in the War?

I hope and pray Plat B does not include a major "terrorist" attack to mobilize world opinion. Way too "convenient."

Just feeling cranky and cynical today.

ElGordo

(01/15/2003; 12:40:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94504)

Natural Gas UP over 6% just today alone!

Holy Moly the API report must show big draw.
Rising energy will help PMs.

ElGordo

(01/15/2003; 12:45:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94505)

Nat Gas chart

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_NGG3&v=d12Stagflation like the 70's?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/15/2003; 12:45:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94506)

Why should YOU buy gold? Because no one else will do it FOR you. We can help.

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
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Kagalaska

(01/15/2003; 12:46:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94507)

BUBONIC PLAGUE

Damm, Now there are 35 vails of Black Death missing in TX.
But don't worry only 1 in 7 die (infected persons that is).
Whats next!!!

CoBra(too)

(01/15/2003; 13:17:01 MDT - Msg ID: 94508)

Looks like my last post is full of (hasty)

Omissions ... won't correct now - as I'm working on a longer response - Forgive me - cb2

miner49er

(01/15/2003; 13:41:35 MDT - Msg ID: 94509)

Belgian @ 94425 - Whys and Wherefores

Dearest Belgian -

In response to your (I'm certain, rhetorical) questions, I will likewise attempt to entertain you with my own responses... Not so much an answer, but just some rehashing and observations around the whole affair.

Q: "**** Why *** is Euroland, UK and Switzerland, supposedly "selling" , CB-monetary-Gold ? [ ... ] And "what" kind of selling is actually going on ? And "why" is there no debate about this ?"

First to answer a question with a question. With all of this high profile "selling," where the past few years found every nation, state, and principality stepping all over each other in a rush to sell-lease-loan-derivatize every ounce and gram they had in their treasuries, why was the US not on this flight, as well? Or, were they just hiding out in the lavatory?

Reviewing the past briefly, we find that in the current post-Bretton-Woods-cum-Comex-LBMA-et-al. skeleton, the USD has had to appear as "good as gold." In order to appear strong suggested that the US not sell its gold, since this gives the appearance of needing to support the currency, boding negatively on the dollar. Yet by the same token, the question is begged: "Well, since the USD is so much better than gold, and doesn't think much of it, leaving it on the books at, yawn, forty-something dollars, why don't they just sell the garbage?" In reality, the USD has needed support for ages, and since it has always mysteriously kept going, the further intimation is that it probably has supported itself with significant gold transactions.

Non-USD entities, on the other hand, holding both gold and USD as reserves, in order to support the USD=gold appearance, would in opposite fashion purportedly be best served by selling their gold, since the message they wished to convey was that they all wanted currency; largely dollars, or some secondary currency (with their managed flexible exch. rate architecture still revolving around the dollar) -- e.g., UK reason for gold sales -- interest bearing instruments were more fiscally prudent, blah blah blah.... Again by the same token, the question arises as to why prudent bankers would put all their eggs in one basket. Should they not hold gold? Since the dollar animal is not under their direct control, why would they not insist on holding some hefty trustworthy, alternative reserves in case the beast goes belly-up (or on a rampage). In reality, they likely sold gold in the past to support the dollar, all the while fashioning a replacement. Today, reduced gold sales continue a) to keep up this appearance of dollar support, so as to not rock the boat, or "tip their hand;" and b) to make final settlement (your "conclusion") to certain accounts that demand it, and have the clout to do so -- ME oil is a good candidate.

Paradox, contradiction, or just as you simply state: disinformation? As I often try to point out here, regardless of what people may think about the financial lords who rule this world (your "brotherhood" folks), one thing they generally are not -- they are NOT stupid. Therefore, anything paradoxical, or contradictory is likely so by design. When people get all worked up over this or that news article, I find this mostly a fruitless exercise. The news articles know nothing. How can they? Their authors report the little things they see, and interpret them according to the filters of their own understanding. And then the thousands of these are culled by sources even further from the action, and more likely to be "yes-man" lackeys, who answer to forces concerned with only two things: selling their wares, or promoting their agenda. From this a little splat makes it to the public, of which we only read a little smattering, and usually only a smidgen of the smattering, skimming most of the template-formatted, fill-in-the-blank pabulum.

Who is in the parlor of the villa in the countryside with the very private gathering of this or that money mogul? Who has read their private emails and correspondence? Who sits in their boardrooms or on their conference calls? Who even knows who they are? Oh, yes, everyone knows about Rothschilds, and Bilderbergers, etc., but no one knows anything about their comings and goings. Can anyone tell me what one single Rothschild is doing for lunch, today? Never mind the dozens of other unnamed families that have a say in these matters. They all live and move and conduct their affairs, very privately, just like we do. How can we expect to know what is really taking place at these levels? Ridiculous.

So we must rely on the published cud regurgitated from the maws of the various minion news organs. And as you so aptly instruct, we must extrapolate from these dis-jointed threads, and weave them together with the acumen of our best-effort understanding of human nature. No one is going to lay it out plainly -- especially to us, the lilliputian masses...

So... who actually does what, and why? If you may, please excuse the following convolution: The US ought to sell, because they imply they don't need it; but they suggest they don't sell, yet they probably need to sell for support, and to settle certain accounts, so they probably do (and without a lot of noise about it, and in very complex transactions). The Europeans, on the other hand insinuate they should sell, but they shouldn't, because they might very well need it, but also must keep up an appearance for the time being, and also may have to settle some accounts, so they supposedly do (and very publicly, too).

Bottom line, both factions clearly hold onto as much gold as possible. And let us also state the converse. Both factions clearly sell as little gold as possible. -- Just like all of us...

Under the bottom line, is as you've said. There is the largest, most comprehensive disinformation campaign taking place that this world has yet seen. (Anyone remember when WAT started, and the US government publicly stated that part of the war would be the dissemination of disinformation both to outsiders, and the citizenry themselves?)

Under the bottom line, further. Since no one knows anymore who's telling the truth, Belgian, I know you subscribe to this advice: accumulate an asset that doesn't depend on someone else's words and promises. So to anyone else who has bothered to read this far, go for the gold, and give CPM a call, today.

Belgian - best to you, and thanks for your thought-provoking commentary...

miner

Brett Woods

(01/15/2003; 14:13:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94510)

John Le Carre: woI not woT

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0%2C%2C482-543296%2C00.htmlMostly old hat for USAGold forum readers but John Le Carre opinion (author of "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy") is always worth a review. I was shocked to read in the Sydney Morning Herald online a few days ago, the assertion that Australian troops were being pledged to the Iraqi task force to fight the woT. I wrote to them for clarification.
(They didn't reply)
****
excerpt: "...

Care for a few pointers? George W. Bush, 1978-84: senior executive, Arbusto Energy/Bush Exploration, an oil company; 1986-90: senior executive of the Harken oil company. Dick Cheney, 1995-2000: chief executive of the Halliburton oil company. Condoleezza Rice, 1991-2000: senior executive with the Chevron oil company, which named an oil tanker after her. And so on. But none of these trifling associations affects the integrity of God's work

How Bush and his junta succeeded in deflecting America's anger from bin Laden to Saddam Hussein is one of the great public relations conjuring tricks of history. But they swung it. A recent poll tells us that one in two Americans now believe Saddam was responsible for the attack on the World Trade Centre. But the American public is not merely being misled. It is being browbeaten and kept in a state of ignorance and fear. The carefully orchestrated neurosis should carry Bush and his fellow conspirators nicely into the next election.

Those who are not with Mr Bush are against him. Worse, they are with the enemy. Which is odd, because I'm dead against Bush, but I would love to see Saddam's downfall � just not on Bush's terms and not by his methods. And not under the banner of such outrageous hypocrisy.

The religious cant that will send American troops into battle is perhaps the most sickening aspect of this surreal war-to-be. Bush has an arm-lock on God. And God has very particular political opinions. God appointed America to save the world in any way that suits America. God appointed Israel to be the nexus of America's Middle Eastern policy, and anyone who wants to mess with that idea is a) anti-Semitic, b) anti-American, c) with the enemy, and d) a terrorist.

"But will we win, Daddy?"

"Of course, child. It will all be over while you're still in bed."

"Why?"

"Because otherwise Mr Bush's voters will get terribly impatient and may decide not to vote for him."

"But will people be killed, Daddy?"

"Nobody you know, darling. Just foreign people."

"Can I watch it on television?"

"Only if Mr Bush says you can."

"And afterwards, will everything be normal again? Nobody will do anything horrid any more?"

"Hush child, and go to sleep."

Last Friday a friend of mine in California drove to his local supermarket with a sticker on his car saying: "Peace is also Patriotic". It was gone by the time he'd finished shopping.
..."
John Le Carre,
Times online January 15, 2003
****

Of course, there is no relationship in evidence between 9/11 and Iran/Iraq/N.Korea except in the proximity of the rhetoric. But we all know that, don't we?

ElGordo

(01/15/2003; 14:14:06 MDT - Msg ID: 94511)

Argentina woes

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Argentine stocks snapped a recent winning streak Wednesday after the government defaulted on its debt to one of its biggest public lenders.

Argentina will not be able to make a $680 million debt payment to the Inter-American Development Bank scheduled for Wednesday, effectively cutting itself off from one of its last major lenders.

The IADB, one of the biggest lenders to Latin America and controlled 30 percent by the U.S., said that it had been notified by Argentina that it would delay payments for a brief period because of technical issues arising from public sector financing restrictions of the central bank.

Argentine Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna said "the delay will be brief and ... will be resolved in the framework of broader refinancing agreements with multilateral organizations," the IADB said in a statement.

The IADB, which is owed $8 billion by Argentina, said it will suspend loan disbursements to the country while it is behind on its obligations.

The default comes at a critical time for Argentina, which has been trying to negotiate an aid deal with the International Monetary Fund ahead of a major debt repayment later this week.

Argentina is supposed to repay $1 billion to the IMF before a Sept. 17 deadline and will face default on its debt if it doesn't do so.
___________
Brazil could have debt problems later this year

ElGordo

(01/15/2003; 14:28:09 MDT - Msg ID: 94512)

Oil stockpiles fall

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil inventories dropped to near their lowest level in more than two decades last week, drained by a dearth of shipments from strike-bound Venezuela, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Crude oil stockpiles fell 6.4 million barrels to 272.3 million barrels during the week ended last Friday, EIA said, just 2 million barrels above the lowest level since the government agency started keeping records in 1979.

Data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed crude oil supplies falling 3.2 million barrels to a new 27-year low, dipping around 1 million barrels under a low struck in October.

ElGordo

(01/15/2003; 14:35:14 MDT - Msg ID: 94513)

Deficit Grows

Associated Press Writer
Wednesday, January 15, 2003; 3:16 PM

WASHINGTON �� President Bush's budget chief said Wednesday that the White House envisions federal deficits in the $200 billion to $300 billion range over the next two years, a dramatic worsening of the government's fiscal picture since last summer.

Budget director Mitchell Daniels also refused to say when federal surpluses would return, commenting only, "Stand by."

Belgian

(01/15/2003; 14:36:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94514)

@ Sir Kosares - Euroland

Funny it may be, but I, previously, had the same criticisms/scepticism about Euroland, in the make, as expressed in your posting.
But through "your" fine forum here...I progressively changed my mind, step by step. Simply because I've been learning here so much from accross the Atlantic we both share. Learned about the "growing" differences between Americans and Eurolanders. Yes Sir, quite an extraordinary experience for wich I'll remain thankful to you personaly, your team and your forum-guests.

Allow me to conclude this Euroland-chapter with my concluding belief that : Euroland's diversity is NOT its weakness but its enduring "strength" ! We will both find out how things will evolve, whilst remaining in friendship and respect for each other. Many thanks Sir Kosares for communicating your opinion. Regards, Belgian...Eurolander .

canamami

(01/15/2003; 15:04:06 MDT - Msg ID: 94515)

Mutual fund sales plunge 88 per cent in 2002

http://cbc.ca/stories/2003/01/15/funds030115Mutual fund sales plunge 88 per cent in 2002
Last Updated Wed, 15 Jan 2003 14:02:17
TORONTO - Net sales of mutual funds fell by a whopping 88 per cent in 2002 to levels that haven't been seen in years, the Investment Funds Institute of Canada (IFIC) reported Wednesday.

.............

Belgian

(01/15/2003; 15:26:14 MDT - Msg ID: 94516)

@ Miner49er

The dollar as good as Gold : Obtained by 2 major blocks of Gold - sellers (re-allocators).
1/ The dollar-block selling Gold through the brotherhood's miners and private Gold-holders (not treasury Gold) and US- sympathisants, UK/Kuwait and others.
2/ Euroland's CBs.

Both selling-blocks (1 and 2) had / have periods of same goals and periods of diverging goals. Goals being Fluctuating exchange rates of $ - �.
Yes Sir, I'll certainly add the opportunism of the "smart" brotherhood(s) (and gamblers), positionning, for a fantastic coming, inevitable, joy-riding on Gold's rise.

WHY...?

Because a massive dollar-flight was already in the cards long ago. Flight to what : Gold and...euro (stated by Nomura, today). Let's leave out the Gold-enhancing effect on the euro for the time being and try to measure somehow on what is ment by "massive" dollar-flight. How massive ?
Throw your darts to the percentage board...20%...30%...?
Against the euro or Gold (rhetoric) ?

What was the purpose of near zero IRs ? Answer in one word : REFINANSING in (strong) US$ ! For repayment (servicing-?) in "very" weak dollars ? Again, how weak and weak against what ?

Is the answer lying with block-2 Gold sellers, aka Euroland's CBs ?

Is it the economy or is it the dollar (daddy > son) ?
Is the dollar that is "sick and tired"...?

Is a *reasonably* declining dollar (20%-30%) going to be able to swing-start global economy's expansion, again, for the benefit of all of us...them ???
That's the "Shakespearian" question. I'm afraid the answer is NO, but leave all doors open as usual. I think that the Euroland CBs made their bet, already... with the re-allocation of some Gold to broaden the "concept".

Thanks miner for ...everything !

Husky

(01/15/2003; 15:29:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94517)

Mr Gresham, MK: Europe

Mr. Gresham writes: "Perhaps that is what our friend here -- (only 1 window open -- can't go back to look 2 days ago) -- was mentioning about the knitting together at the lower levels of functioning. (I was so surprised the first time I drove ;non-stop through from Netherlands to Italy in a few hours.)"

Yes, precisely what I meant. Europe appears extremely 'integrated' these days if you take just about any topic and throw it under a microscope. In other words, political integration is not taking place from the top down. It is taking place from the bottom up. Americans can't see that, and it's not really their 'fault' per se since the insight requires a broad view of daily life in Europe and also since there are differences in functioning beliefs concerning where the political power in fact rests in a society in the first place - i.e. whether the real power is in the upper or lower layers.

Europe is a democracy driven from the bottom up, not the top down as in the US. Sure, the Commission isn't democratic. To transpose the criticism of the Commission into American terms, this would be like criticising the 'choice' of vanilla candidates offered to American voters by the 'elites'. The criticism is valid in a technical sense in both cases, yet the method implied to fix things may be overly focused on the wrong 'layer'in each case. The point being that 'organic' analysis is required rather than anaylsis by reference to an external yardstick.

Black Blade

(01/15/2003; 15:35:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94518)

Weather Problems

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=2
Ah, don't ya just love Winter? Though the weather isn't so bad here there were some weather related power problems that delayed pulling together today's DMR, but finally the Gods took pity and now the Daily Report is posted though not as comprehensive as I would like.

The drop in the PPI has apparently given the pundits a lot to talk about today. I can imagine that the deflation debate will be the subject of a lot of talk.

El Gordo: Tomorrow we will get a preview of the NatGas supply draws, but due to the lag of weekly reporting we will likely see the real impact with next weeks' data. Tomorrow the EIA will release last weeks data. Meanwhile NatGas prices kicked higher on forecasts of a large Canadian cold front (dang Canadians!) that will move south down through the Mid-section of the US. NG also jumped higher in sympathy with record low oil inventories as well as expectations of heavy storage draws over the next few weeks. The weather forecast picture suggests a much colder Winter as feared. This along with extremely low rig counts it should get interesting. The higher energy costs are going to hit the consumer right between the eyes like a sledge hammer. The costs to the economy are obvious.

- Black Blade

Cavan Man

(01/15/2003; 15:46:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94519)

Dear friend CB (too)

What was that comment about CELTS?You must be referring to the antiquarian variety n'est ce pas?

Trojan

(01/15/2003; 16:09:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94520)

@ Contrarian Re: Your Post # 94484

You asked about when did the Fed or FEED :-) get the authority to get stocks.

In my Post # 94215 I mentioned it. Here is the item:

(12) Greenspan is running the show now with No Controls on him. Greenspan has ALL the Tools he needs including The Monetary Control Act Of 1980 which allows the FED to buy Stocks.

Hope that clears it up.

I'm calling them the FEED from now on. They keep FEEDING the Suckers those Dollar's :-)

Black Blade

(01/15/2003; 16:19:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94521)

So How Bad Is The US Economy?

Snippits from today's news:

The Bush administration will seek a record $4.77 billion in its fiscal 2004 budget for the popular WIC program that provides extra food to poor women and their children, Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman said on Wednesday. Nearly half of the children born in the United States each year benefit from WIC -- the Women, Infants and Children supplemental nutrition program. In addition to WIC, some 20.7 million people were estimated to receive food stamps this year, an increase from the 19.1 million participants in fiscal 2002. Food stamp participation increases during economic downturns. "I think we are projecting an increase for 2004 as well," Veneman said.

President Bush's budget director said on Wednesday he expects the U.S. government to run deficits for the "foreseeable future," with shortfalls of $200 billion to $300 billion this fiscal year and next that could be the biggest on record. The projections, by Office of Management and Budget Director Mitch Daniels, underscored a dramatic deterioration in the government's fiscal picture since a record budget surplus of $236 billion seen in 2000.

An influential moderate Senate Democrat on Wednesday urged President Bush to tackle Social Security reform this year, saying time was running out to shore up the system before baby boomers retire.

Black Blade: This is just a small sampling from today's news. If the economy was is "economic recovery" why all the "doom and gloom"? It's quite simple, the economy is actually worsening and there is no "economic recovery". Debt (consumer, corporate, and government) is at all time record levels and getting worse. The situation is dire and our government leaders know it. I expect to see a lot of drastic changes as the noose gets tighter. We should see more governmnet spending for social programs just so people can eat. Today it takes both spouses working just to make ends meet. The US dollar has been so devalued that we are losing ground as the treadmill spins ever faster.

As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. In the end, only you can look out for number one because in reality, no one else will.

Off to the gym!

Trojan

(01/15/2003; 16:25:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94522)

The Monetary Control Act Of 1980

http://landru.i-link-2.net/monques/dereg80.htmlJust wanted to make sure I didn't mislead anyone.

Isn't Google Great :-)

(01/15/2003; 16:29:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94523)

Belgian. . .

The impetus for major political events are more often than not completely unforeseen. My earlier post today would be meaningless if the dollar were to suddenly collapse and the post World War II economic arrangement disintegrate. In the vacuum which followed such an event, anything would be possible -- including an accelerated push by Europe for a strong central government -- out of necessity. As you say, we shall see what happens. You are certainly right about one thing: The euro sets the stage for many allied developments down the road and is prescient in that capacity. Europe has already taken the first step. For this I give the founders of the New Europe much credit. I am happy to see that you can call yourself a Eurolander. . . . .My criticisms of the current process are as a friendly observer. Please be assured that I wish my European friends well, and would encourage their continued acquisition of gold coins as a practical insurance against human error on either, or both, sides of the Atlantic.

CoBra(too)

(01/15/2003; 16:45:11 MDT - Msg ID: 94524)

Celts? Sounds awful ... Sir C(K)avan, Man, I apologize ...

Kelts do wear Kilts, too? Or barrels - sans the oil -of Diogenes', who asked the usurpator to step out of his (D's) Sun. What more do we need - a li'l old place in the sun - forget about barrels ...

So, told you and all - was in a hurry to (partly) object and agree to a flurry of diverse opinionated opinions on the MK EU theme.

As I've stated, my good friend, my first reply was just off the cuff and the second - should have been stuffed - anyway I'll try to make good on that, call it obstructive - vs. constructive.

Not-withstanding our late debate ... Gold is doing what it's always done - being begnign enough to snuff at the cappers - and just doing what Gold always does - protect wealth!

Ari says - Gold is Gold - who am I to debate that Fact?!
cb2 - sans any weight and measure ... only a bit obese - personally - cb2

Cavan Man

(01/15/2003; 18:24:59 MDT - Msg ID: 94525)

Here's to globalization!

Israel to kill in U.S., allied nations
By Richard Sale
UPI Intelligence Correspondent
From the Washington Politics & Policy Desk
Published 1/15/2003 7:14 PM
View printer-friendly version

Israel is embarking upon a more aggressive approach to the war on terror that will include staging targeted killings in the United States and other friendly countries, former Israeli intelligence officials told United Press International.

Trojan

(01/15/2003; 18:42:55 MDT - Msg ID: 94526)

North Korea "Their Point Of View"

I have been clicking on the Drudge Report and then at the bottom left hand side clicking on the North Korean News link. I have been doing this for about two weeks now in order to see what they are thinking.

Why ? Sad to say watching the USA and also Canadian version of things. North Korea is bluffing. North Korea is led by a Porn Loving Madman. Etc......

Read the following and then look at my closing comments. Maybe you might see a different picture than the one we are being shown in the USA.

KCNA refutes U.S. sophism about DPRK's decision
Pyongyang, January 14 (KCNA) -- Some of the international community are reported to have made such unreasonable remarks as expressing "serious concern" and "regret" over the DPRK's decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

The U.S. President, Vice-President and other senior U.S. officials let loose a whole string of sheer sophism misrepresenting the nature and cause of the grave situation.

As the U.S. is to blame for spawning the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula and driving it to the worst phase, there is no need for the international community to "worry" about the decision.

The DPRK Government has already clarified that though the DPRK withdraws from the NPT, it has no will to produce nuclear weapons and its nuclear activities will be confined to the production of electricity at the present stage.

If the U.S. had not listed the DPRK, a sovereign state, as part of an "axis of evil" and a target of its preemptive nuclear attack in wanton violation of the NPT and the DPRK-U.S. Agreed Framework (AF), such a crisis would not have occurred.

The U.S. talk about the DPRK's "admission of its nuclear development" is nothing but a product of the despicable premeditated plot hatched by the U.S. bellicose elements.

The U.S. is seriously mistaken if it calculates the DPRK will remain a onlooker to the situation where the U.S. adopted it as its policy to overthrow the DPRK's system and mobilized even the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a dirty political servant, to isolate and stifle it.

While frantically stepping up its preparations for a war of aggression against the DPRK, the U.S. unilaterally stopped the supply of heavy oil to it and thus abandoned even its last commitment that had been fulfilled under the AF, causing an enormous loss of electricity to the DPRK and creating the most acute shortage of electricity in the country.

This compelled the DPRK to defreeze its nuclear facilities.

It is an inviolable legitimate right of a sovereign state to withdraw from the NPT to develop its independent nuclear power industry under the present situation where its supreme interests are seriously infringed upon by the U.S.

Ours is a people of strong will who put into practice anything they determined to do. Even if the worst thing happens, they have nothing to fear.

Some countries and media are so foolish as to describe the step taken by the DPRK as "brinkmanship". But it is not "brinkmanship".

The DPRK regards any U.S. sanctions against it as a declaration of a war and is fully combat-ready to cope with it.

It is the unshakable will of the Korean people that if the ten million-strong army and people unite as one and fight in a do-or-die spirit, they can surely emerge victorious.

If the U.S. politicians value the interests and future of their country, they had better properly understand the DPRK's resolute stand and stop going reckless.

End Of Statement

OK, Let's CUT TO THE CHASE

If the U.S. had not listed the DPRK, a sovereign state, as part of an "axis of evil" and a target of its preemptive nuclear attack in wanton violation of the NPT and the DPRK-U.S. Agreed Framework (AF), such a crisis would not have occurred.

What does North Korea really Want ?

A NON-Agression Pact.

That's it short and sweet.

They will dismantle their Nuclear capabilities and the USA will sign the Pact.

BUT NO.......

That will NOT suit the USA's purposes. They need their Axis Of Evil.

I'm a Canadian as I have said before. With Due Respect and LOT's of RESPECT to American Citizens reading this. Bush is as our Canadian Prime Minister's press secretary said, "A Moron"

I am NOT one to publically insult people but I have to tell you that it makes me angry to see the USA (It's Leader's) Play the World for fools.

Unfortunately what happens in the USA affects us All in some way.

Agree or Disagree ?
Am I wrong in the way I see this ?
How do Americans reading this feel ?
Will you do something about it in a peaceful way ?

Let me tell you. Iran and it's Leader's are not fools
They know they are Number Three on the list.
You can count on them now hard at work with Russia's help to get the Nuclear Bomb. Do you blame them ?

Why in Heaven's name did Bush need to Antagonize other nations ? The Axis Of Evil. And apparantly it was a Canadian, Mr. Frum who wrote that for his Speech.

I can't wait to hear President Bush's State Of The Universe Address this 28TH of January.

miner49er

(01/15/2003; 18:50:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94527)

Belgian @ 94516

Hi Belgian, that point where you say, "What was the purpose of near zero IRs ? Answer in one word : REFINANSING in (strong) US$ ! For repayment (servicing-?) in "very" weak dollars ?" -- That makes perfect sense.

I would hear the CNBC gang talk (couple years ago) about what a proof it was the US (dollar economy) was where it was AT, because of all the foreign companies "fleeing" Europe for the evergreen pastures of American capitalism, and buying up American companies.

In my thinking, it seemed just a very smart move to get in early on the (then) anticipated strong dollar momentum, and to boot, finance all there activities in a declining IR environment. The real reason, of course would be that they would be paying this all back with cheap, cheap, cheaper dollars at some point.

In the meantime, they could a) capitalize on the then strong equity momentum to get the money for their acquisitions, b) finance as above, to pay back in cheap paper, and c) who knows, actually have quite possibly a decent business under their belt, depending on who bought what.

So too, all the talking heads, who love to point out the tremendous debt burden of those irresponsible desert dwellers, ME oil. In reality, they were smart to take on as much debt as they could tolerate, for the same reasons, just endure until, their coming cheap payback in declining dollars more than compensates for the loss up front. And this doesn't even include the compensation to be had in appreciating gold.

Sadly, I watch a wonderful nation, with truly some of the most industrious, enterprising, intelligent people around (I know, I work around/with some of the finest!), fall victim to a banking/finance fiasco of herculean proportions. So many, so expert in their individual professional disciplines, but so naive and gullible in matters having to do with money...

Well, we shall watch this gold market, no...? Even from the lilliputian gallery, way in the back...

cheers, good Sir,
miner

sector

(01/15/2003; 19:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 94528)

@ GratefulforGold -- War is Off...Plan "B"

Is there a Plan "B" to launch an Iraq War?Maybe history is a guide.

Our Pacific fleet was bait at Pearl Harbor and FDR had cleanly broken the "Purple" Japanese military codes. Incidentally, each reception by the Pacific Radio Intel group recorded the Radio Direction Finding bearings to the radio sources. Therefore the US knew the various fleet locations including the Akagi's group. They weren't on radio silence. There are 124 Japanese transmitted radio messages that are still "Classified" by the NSA. But their log numbers show them to be the Akagi. ["Day of Deceit", Stinnett, 1999]. Indeed the Navy confiscated the radio log of a luxury liner [Lurline] that landed in Hawaii just after Dec. 7th because it contained numerous back and forth communications from the Japanese carrier attack group and the mainland. No radio silence.

The Freedom of Information Act has unveiled the deception. The top US leaders knew that Hawaii was the target, they knew the date. They sat on the information. Afterwards the Hawaii intel chief who purposely kept Adm. Kimmel in the dark said, "Pearl Harbor was a small price to pay..." to get the US into the war.

The Gulf of Tonkin ruse led to Viet Nam. And one can only guess at the truth behind 9/11. The assasins trained to rake off but not to land. The FBI knew that.

Bush and Blair meet a few days after the San Diego Super Bowl where Saudi nationals have a high presence. They hold seats on the water board.

Popular and/or World opposition never stopped Presidents from precipitating adventurous wars before.

I hope I'm wrong.

mikal

(01/15/2003; 19:22:34 MDT - Msg ID: 94529)

@sector

What you just said took me back to the times when every other day we were warned in the news about a terror alert here and terror "chatter" there. News of color coded levels of preparedness. Suspects sought or arrested. Then they toned it down a notch, after complaints from officials seeing public complacency. But the headlines, hype and photoshoots keep coming. Just like the latest anthrax "close call", conveniently so, not coincidental. Neither are the 22 missing microbiologists. Have you seen Devvy.com? There is some background on WMD's there and the dead scientists.

Cavan Man

(01/15/2003; 19:22:35 MDT - Msg ID: 94530)

ah.............sector..........!

You must have read Mr. Stinson's "Day of Deceit" eh? Coincidentally and perhaps ironically, Mr. Stinson served in the USN under......ta da....George Bush Sr. (Believe it)

When asked why he wrote the book which was not met with braod acclamation and acceptance Mr. Stinson said, I fought in that war. "I just wanted to know the truth".

misetich

(01/15/2003; 19:24:01 MDT - Msg ID: 94531)

Unemployment on the Rise; Pensions ousting managers

http://www.nj.com/business/ledger/index.ssf?/base/business-3/1042614618315360.xmlSnip:

State pension fund managers have decided to cut their ties with Wall Street asset managers, whom they blame for allowing bad stock market losses to grow even bigger.
State employee retirement funds lost more than $150 billion in the fiscal year ending June 30, according to the Federal Reserve, and many outside fund managers are paying the price.
All of the state pension funds surveyed by Reuters lost money last year. South Carolina's $21 billion state pension fund dipped a scant 0.53 percent, posting the best results. Arkansas rated worst, losing 15.8 percent for the year. Michigan's main public fund slid by $6.74 billion, or 13.8 percent.
New Jersey's state pension fund performance ranked third to last, suffering a 12.3 percent skid that sliced nearly $9 billion off its assets.
The horrendous performance has led states to take action, and some Wall Street firms are paying the price. Led by California's behemoth $133 billion Calpers fund -- which dismissed Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and Credit Suisse in 2002 -- states around the country are firing asset managers left and right.
............

The Reuters survey of the biggest public pension funds, which includes plans for everyone from state employees, teachers and judges to police officers and firefighters in 39 states -- found every one of them dropped in total assets.
************
Misetich

If only these pension managers hedged their bets and bought gold at $250 - $290 they would be able to enjoy their fat bonuses instead of collecting unemployment benefits

and if new incoming pension managers are smart enough to add physical gold at today's cheap prices they may be able to avoid the fate of their predecessors as the big bad bear in SM is not finished yet and the gold bull is only beginning

Got gold?

Cavan Man

(01/15/2003; 19:24:14 MDT - Msg ID: 94532)

History (which, BTW, deserves CAREFUL reading)

Necessity also makes for strange bedfellows.

Cavan Man

(01/15/2003; 19:28:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94533)

sector

The last post refers to FDR and those who knew about the strategy to engage Japan. I believe the number was 12 (strange).

Gold Hill

(01/15/2003; 19:47:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94534)

Energy Costs

Just returned from the midwest(Columbus, OH), the weather forcast there was for at least two weeks of below freezeing temperatures,and that is the highs!! When I got to O'Hare it was 5 degrees. Anybody that read today's WSJ like I did (four airports in nine hours), will buy gold tomorrow. I do believe we've got a dip here!!
$20 Saints are cheap, call the host of this site and lock some in!!!

mikal

(01/15/2003; 19:49:37 MDT - Msg ID: 94535)

@sector

Another thing your post brought to mind: The numerous statements from top Bush admin. officials around the same time, over most of the last year and in the end of 2001(post-9-11). Suggesting that terror attacks were coming. Actually, they went on record, deliberately we shall see, (Like the financial tv gurus, economists, executives and officials that turned publicly gold bullish and reversed POG forecasts, FOR THE RECORD) to state that "we don't know where or when, but we know soon they will HIT US HARD." And similar warnings and accusations, all strikingly explicit and domestic in focus, and FOR THE NEAR TERM. Regards

Trojan

(01/15/2003; 19:49:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94536)

@ Sector, Cavan Man and Mikal

If you want some more of that Stuff. Look at my Post # 94460. It lists the Top 10 theories of 2002.

3, 4 and 5 make good reading.

misetich

(01/15/2003; 19:59:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94537)

Hedging activity could add to dollar pressure

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1042490756225&p=1012571727201Snip:

"For a eurozone investor, it now pays to hedge your dollar exposure and it is pretty cheap to hedge if you are in Switzerland or Japan too," said Tony Norfield, head of currency strategy at ABN Amro in London.

Six-month interest rates in the US are now around 1.4 per cent, compared to 2.75 per cent in the eurozone and close to 4 per cent in the UK.

Mr Norfield estimates that portfolio managers may increase their hedging ratios by as much as 15 percentage points by the middle of the year.

If this forecast proves true it would have serious implications for the dollar. The US has become increasingly dependent on portfolio flows to fund the current account deficit - a net direct investment inflow of $3bn in 2001 became a $66bn outflow in 2002.

At the end of last year US foreign investors held $1,200bn in US Treasuries, $1,700bn in US corporate and agency bonds and $1,100bn in US equities.

Tony Norfield said that although a significant portion of these assets were held by central banks that were unlikely to hedge, a 15 percentage point rise in hedge ratios would imply around $270bn of dollar selling from European investors alone.

ABN Amro is now forecasting a rise in the euro to $1.09 within the next few months.

**********
Misetich

The overvalued US $ is getting hit from all sides - the only productivity gain left is the printing presses in the US and Japan

Got gold?

Trojan

(01/15/2003; 20:01:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94538)

Here is one of them...

Has someone been sitting on the FBI? 6/11/01

Interview:

GREG PALAST:
The CIA and Saudi Arabia, the Bushes and the Bin Ladens. Did their connections cause America to turn a blind eye to terrorism?

UNNAMED MAN:
There is a hidden agenda at the very highest levels of our government.

JOE TRENTO, (AUTHOR, "SECRET HISTORY OF THE CIA"):
The sad thing is that thousands of Americans had to die needlessly.

PETER ELSNER:
How can it be that the former President of the US and the current President of the US have business dealings with characters that need to be investigated?

PALAST:
In the eight weeks since the attacks, over 1,000 suspects and potential witnesses have been detained. Yet, just days after the hijackers took off from Boston aiming for the Twin Towers, a special charter flight out of the same airport whisked 11 members of Osama Bin Laden's family off to Saudi Arabia. That did not concern the White House.

Their official line is that the Bin Ladens are above suspicion - apart from Osama, the black sheep, who they say hijacked the family name. That's fortunate for the Bush family and the Saudi royal household, whose links with the Bin Ladens could otherwise prove embarrassing. But Newsnight has obtained evidence that the FBI was on the trail of other members of the] Bin Laden family for links to terrorist organisations before and after September 11th.
This document is marked "Secret". Case ID - 199-Eye WF 213 589. 199 is FBI code for case type. 9 would be murder. 65 would be espionage. 199 means national security. WF indicates Washington field office special agents were investigating ABL - because of it's relationship with the World Assembly of Muslim Youth, WAMY - a suspected terrorist organisation. ABL is Abdullah Bin Laden, president and treasurer of WAMY.

This is the sleepy Washington suburb of Falls Church, Virginia where almost every home displays the Stars and Stripes. On this unremarkable street, at 3411 Silver Maple Place, we located the former home of Abdullah and another brother, Omar, also an FBI suspect. It's conveniently close to WAMY. The World Assembly of Muslim Youth is in this building, in a little room in the basement at 5613 Leesburg Pike. And here, just a couple blocks down the road at 5913 Leesburg, is where four of the hijackers that attacked New York and Washington are listed as having lived.

The US Treasury has not frozen WAMY's assets, and when we talked to them, they insisted they are a charity. Yet, just weeks ago, Pakistan expelled WAMY operatives. And India claimed that WAMY was funding an organisation linked to bombings in Kashmir. And the Philippines military has accused WAMY of funding Muslim insurgency. The FBI did look into WAMY, but, for some reason, agents were pulled off the trail.

TRENTO:
The FBI wanted to investigate these guys. This is not something that they didn't want to do - they wanted to, they weren't permitted to.

PALAST:
The secret file fell into the hands of national security expert, Joe Trento. The Washington spook-tracker has been looking into the FBI's allegations about WAMY.

TRENTO:
They've had connections to Osama Bin Laden's people. They've had connections to Muslim cultural and financial aid groups that have terrorist connections. They fit the pattern of groups that the Saudi royal family and Saudi community of princes - the 20,000 princes - have funded who've engaged in terrorist activity.

Now, do I know that WAMY has done anything that's illegal? No, I don't know that. Do I know that as far back as 1996 the FBI was very concerned about this organisation? I do.

PALAST:
Newsnight has uncovered a long history of shadowy connections between the State Department, the CIA and the Saudis. The former head of the American visa bureau in Jeddah is Michael Springman.

MICHAEL SPRINGMAN:
In Saudi Arabia I was repeatedly ordered by high level State Dept officials to issue visas to unqualified applicants. These were, essentially, people who had no ties either to Saudi Arabia or to their own country. I complained bitterly at the time there. I returned to the US, I complained to the State Dept here, to the General Accounting Office, to the Bureau of Diplomatic Security and to the Inspector General's office. I was met with silence.

PALAST:
By now, Bush Sr, once CIA director, was in the White House. Springman was shocked to find this wasn't visa fraud. Rather, State and CIA were playing "the Great Game".

SPRINGMAN:
What I was protesting was, in reality, an effort to bring recruits, rounded up by Osama Bin Laden, to the US for terrorist training by the CIA. They would then be returned to Afghanistan to fight against the then-Soviets.

The attack on the World Trade Center in 1993 did not shake the State Department's faith in the Saudis, nor did the attack on American barracks at Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia three years later, in which 19 Americans died. FBI agents began to feel their investigation was being obstructed. Would you be surprised to find out that FBI agents are a bit frustrated that they can't be looking into some Saudi connections?

MICHAEL WILDES, ( LAWYER)
I would never be surprised with that. They're cut off at the hip sometimes by supervisors or given shots that are being called from Washington at the highest levels.

PALAST:
I showed lawyer Michael Wildes our FBI documents. One of the Khobar Towers bombers was represented by Wildes, who thought he had useful intelligence for the US. He also represents a Saudi diplomat who defected to the USA with 14,000 documents which Wildes claims implicates Saudi citizens in financing terrorism and more. Wildes met with FBI men who told him they were not permitted to read all the documents. Nevertheless, he tried to give them to the agents.

WILDES:
"Take these with you. We're not going to charge for the copies. Keep them. Do something with them. Get some bad guys with them." They refused.

PALAST:
In the hall of mirrors that is the US intelligence community, Wildes, a former US federal attorney, said the FBI field agents wanted the documents, but they were told to "see no evil."

WILDES:
You see a difference between the rank-and-file counter-intelligence agents, who are regarded by some as the motor pool of the FBI, who drive following diplomats, and the people who are getting the shots called at the highest level of our government, who have a different agenda - it's unconscionable.

PALAST:
State wanted to keep the pro-American Saudi royal family in control of the world's biggest oil spigot, even at the price of turning a blind eye to any terrorist connection so long as America was safe. In recent years, CIA operatives had other reasons for not exposing Saudi-backed suspects.

TRENTO:
If you recruited somebody who is a member of a terrorist organisation, who happens to make his way here to the US, and even though you're not in touch with that person anymore but you have used him in the past, it would be unseemly if he were arrested by the FBI and word got back that he'd once been on the payroll of the CIA. What we're talking about is blow-back. What we're talking about is embarrassing, career-destroying blow-back for intelligence officials.

PALAST:
Does the Bush family also have to worry about political blow-back? The younger Bush made his first million 20 years ago with an oil company partly funded by Salem Bin Laden's chief US representative. Young George also received fees as director of a subsidiary of Carlyle Corporation, a little known private company which has, in just a few years of its founding, become one of Americas biggest defence contractors. His father, Bush Senior, is also a paid advisor. And what became embarrassing was the revelation that the Bin Ladens held a stake in Carlyle, sold just after September 11.

ELSNER:
You have a key relationship between the Saudis and the former President of the US who happens to be the father of the current President of the US. And you have all sorts of questions about where does policy begin and where does good business and good profits for the company, Carlyle, end?

PALAST:
I received a phone call from a high-placed member of a US intelligence agency. He tells me that while there's always been constraints on investigating Saudis, under George Bush it's gotten much worse. After the elections, the agencies were told to "back off" investigating the Bin Ladens and Saudi royals, and that angered agents. I'm told that since September 11th the policy has been reversed. FBI headquarters told us they could not comment on our findings. A spokesman said: "There are lots of things that only the intelligence community knows and that no-one else ought to know.

End Of Interview

What else is new !

sector

(01/15/2003; 20:03:19 MDT - Msg ID: 94539)

@ mikal The Roger Ferguson anthrax letter...

...delivered to the Fed's mail sorting station todayThis is pretty significant since it was announced that a second main testing lab confirmed the anthrax results.

A later wire service report issued a negative report on anthrax for a mail depot elsewhere.

IF the powderizing Anthrax matrix and DNA markers sent to the Fed are similar to the original anthrax material then the FBIs "Person of interest" Hatfill is off the hook and some impoverished, cardboard-box-dwelling lawyer is going to be rich. Hatfill himself will be waving his fists on the Nightly News and rightfully so.

The FBI will take yet another huge hit to its investigative credibility and the real culprits will surface again as a source of CIPRO profits. Just in time.

Blair's Cabinet has just opted for another UN vote.

BTW he now invokes the "Conspiracy Theory" to describe those that see oil as the motive for the Iraq War. Imagine that, John LeCarre...as a Conspiracy Theorist!
+++++++++++++++

@CavenMan Yes... lots of people knew about the Japanese codes, just not Kimmel and Short, the patsies.

It got so bad that the radio documents had the DF bearing values [Pointing to the Akagi's position north of Hawaii] physically cut from the forms leaving little square holes.

Like chicken feathers on the muzzle of the fox that denies involvement in the henhouse affair.

Cavan Man

(01/15/2003; 20:14:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94540)

sector

Yes, Kimmel and Short were the fall guys. BTW, I picked up a brand new copy of Robert Stinnett's "DAY OF DECEIT" (sorry to say Stinson in the last post) at a flea market in Morgantown WVA not long after I watched an interview of him from the cozy confines of Destin,FL. The book was a buck! Stinnett said he DID NOT write the book to pass judgment on FDR. He simply wanted to know the truth. (period)

Trojan

(01/15/2003; 20:17:34 MDT - Msg ID: 94541)

A Case Of Attention Budget Deficit Disorder In U.S.

Looks to me like the Budget Deficit will get to be a big Issue soon. They just raised their Estimates today quite Sharply.

Good for Gold. Bad for the US Dollar. And if the Economy keeps tanking, revenues will go down and the Deficit will increase.

2003 Will indeed be an interesting year in every respect.

Buy Gold......

Trojan

(01/15/2003; 20:20:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94542)

A Case Of Attention Budget Deficit Disorder In U.S.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-flan15jan15,0,7084643.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2DbusinessSorry, I forgot to post the Link. It is above now.

misetich

(01/15/2003; 20:24:40 MDT - Msg ID: 94543)

(AFX-Focus) 2003-01-15 23:12 GMT: JP Morgan says risk exposure in gold derivatives less than 10 mln usd

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&format=raw&articleid=4556493∾tion=articleSnip:

NEW YORK (AFX) - JP Morgan Chase, answering charges by a pressure group that it
may be facing excessive risks in the gold market but not disclosing them, said
its exposure to gold including derivatives is less than 10 mln usd.
JP Morgan was responding to allegations by the two-person Gold Anti-Trust Action
Committee (GATA), a pressure group which alleges bullion banks and central banks
are conspiring to rig prices in the gold market.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is now being asked to arbitrate
a long-running spat between JP Morgan and GATA which has generated a steady flow
of conflicting claims, rumors, accusations and denials with few hard facts.
Both sides are calling on the securities regulator to investigate their claims
about the other party. GATA asked the SEC last week to investigate its suspicion
that JP Morgan has a higher risk exposure to fluctuations in the price of gold
than what it has acknowledged publicly.
GATA's letter to the SEC spelling out its allegations followed JP Morgan's
request to the regulator on Jan 3 that it investigate rumors the bank was trying
to keep the price of gold down and covering up losses incurred from the recent
rise in gold prices.
JP Morgan Chase has registered 41 bln usd in gold derivative contracts as of the
third quarter last year in its filings with the US Office of the Comptroller of
the Currency. This is the notional value, or the sum of the value of different
contracts of the bank's clients holding different positions, long or short, on
the contracts.
Derivatives are financial instruments that derive their value from another
underlying asset, like gold. The most common derivatives are futures and
options.
"On any given day, JP Morgan's exposure to the gold market including derivatives
is less than 10 million dollars," a bank spokesman told AFX Global Ethics
Monitor.
"The risk of contracts is held by our clients and we actually don't have any
risk associated in the contracts."
Analysts said that sorting out the conflicting claims comes down to finding out
for sure which contracts JP Morgan holds on gold, and if it is betting the price
of the precious metal will rise or fall -- two facts hard to pin down.
Brock Vandervliet, vice president of equity research at Lehman Brothers said the
amount in gold derivative contracts Morgan Chase has disclosed is not excessive
for a large bank.
However, Vandervliet said the amount is larger than what HSBC and Citibank
reported in the third quarter of last year. HSBC had notional amounts of 14.2
billion dollars in gold derivative contracts while Citibank had 12.9 billion
dollars.
Vandervliet also said that gold is not a major part of JP Morgan's derivatives
business and hence may not be that big a risk.
But analysts agreed the information provided by JP Morgan is not enough to
understand the actual risk involved.
"There are two things that are absolutely critical to know which make it
impossible to conclude anything really powerful," said Vandervliet.
"First, is the net trading position long or short? We don't know. Second, how
much of these contracts are held by JPM versus held for customers supporting a
trading book and therefore not presenting JPM with a material risk. This is a
weakness of the disclosure and makes firm conclusions very difficult."
The dispute between JP Morgan and GATA, which gets funding from several small
gold companies, goes back to late last year when GATA accused the bank of trying
to run down the prices in the gold market.
GATA has in the past also accused the US Federal Reserve Bank, the International
Monetary Fund and other bullion banks like Goldman Sachs of price rigging.
On Jan 6, GATA consultant James Turk wrote to the SEC asking for an inquiry.
"It's about time that we learn the truth regarding JP Morgan Chase's activity in
the gold market, the full extent of its gold exposure, and whether it used gold
loans to fund the so-called 'disguised loans' that it arranged for Enron," Turk
said in the letter to the SEC.
A SEC spokesman said the organization does not comment on investigations,
ongoing or otherwise.
Some analysts are also skeptical of the risk exposure disclosed by JP Morgan.
"They have to divulge only material risk that is a risk large enough to have
impact on the company's assets," said Richard Bove, managing director, Hoefer
and Arnett, a research group specializing in financial companies.
"We accept the amount disclosed as a matter of faith."
GATA disputed the 10 mln usd figure given the amount of gold derivative
contracts booked by JP Morgan, citing the bank's alleged interest in keeping the
price of gold down.
Gold prices are currently at their highest levels in six years and GATA claims
JP Morgan could be losing money at current prices.
Some industry experts are questioning the veracity of GATA's claims.
"I think they (GATA) could have had long positions in gold and are always
complaining when prices go down never up," said Randall Dodd, director of the
Derivatives Study Center, a non-profit group researching on financial markets,
AFX-GEM.
Investors who have a long position in gold derivatives profit when gold prices
go up. GATA denies having a long position on gold.
anupama.chandrasekaran@afxnews.com

*************
Misetich

"The risk of contracts is held by our clients and we actually don't have any risk associated in the contracts."

As we have witnessed in the Enron caper - JP Morgan also believed that forming another entity and disguising loans was also legal and proper

More details are required from JP Morgan

Got gold?

Trojan

(01/15/2003; 20:36:12 MDT - Msg ID: 94544)

@ misetich Thanks For the Link Re: JP and GATA

Very Interesting. No Risk Huh :-)

Did you see the news today about Fannie Mae reserving nearly 1 Billion Dollars today Re: Derivatives ? No Risk ? Sure only 10 Million. I got a bridge in Broklyn to sell :-)

Trojan

(01/15/2003; 20:42:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94545)

Fannie Mae 52 % Decline in 4TH Quarter Earning

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APiVQgxPiRmFubmllWrite down of Derivatives to 1.88 Billion. New Accounting Rules. Is JP in Trouble ?

Trojan

(01/15/2003; 21:18:42 MDT - Msg ID: 94546)

A Fantastic Article About Gold - January 16/03

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/bouchard011703.htmlWell researched and Well worth reading. It sure looks Great for Gold. $400 here we COME !!!

R Powell

(01/15/2003; 21:31:19 MDT - Msg ID: 94547)

A definition of notional value

Misetich, thanks for the (94543) article. It gives at least one definition of the nefarious "notional value".

JP Morgan Chase has registered 41 bln usd in gold derivative contracts as of the
third quarter last year in its filings with the US Office of the Comptroller of
the Currency. This is the notional value, or the sum of the value of different
contracts of the bank's clients holding different positions, long or short, on
the contracts.

By this definition of "long or short", even small players have huge notional value in the markets. By this definition and figuring the POS at roughly $5.00, the notional value of my current silver positions is over $250,000. My positions are hedged so that I'll profit with a higher price but won't go broke if POG drops a dollar tomorrow. The whole thing is glued together on about $6,000 of margin. It's the NET position that should be considered.

Also, is the bank claiming that they hold these positions for their clients? If so, then as brokers, they probably don't care about prices at all, just commissions. Most commodity brokers are constantly searching for new clients (commissions) as most traders go broke within a year. Hint- I never quit my day job!
Thoughts?

Trojan

(01/15/2003; 21:45:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94548)

Oil About To Explode

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0301/S00055.htmThe Price of Oil could go much higher. Not good for the Economy. It might just drop the US Economy into a Double Dipper.

Trapper

(01/15/2003; 21:46:34 MDT - Msg ID: 94549)

Sir Trojan

you asked how some of the Americans on the board viewed Pres. Bushs dealing with N Korea. Well I for one and I voted for GWB don't like it one bit. I just can't see how he can say those nice communist folks are evil. I say he should bring all our troops home right now too. And we would be sure to tell both the north and the south that we won't get involved any more, even if some long range arty falls out of the sky on Seol. But I'm sure all those students who protest our troops really belive that those nice folks up north just want to get along. And I sure would not bother those nice folks by giving them food and oil that the hard working American taxpayers are making a nuisance of themselves providing. I would just "live small" and let them all fend for themselves.

ElGordo

(01/15/2003; 21:46:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94550)

Could get even colder next week

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=4Old man winter looks to get meaner.
BB- Yep, looking forward to that nat gas number.
This is an odd El Nino, its not supposed to get this
cold according to experts.

R Powell

(01/15/2003; 21:56:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94551)

More confusion from JPM

Another quote from the article (94543) misetich posted,

"Derivatives are financial instruments that derive their value from another
underlying asset, like gold. The most common derivatives are futures and
options.
"On any given day, JP Morgan's exposure to the gold market including derivatives
is less than 10 million dollars," a bank spokesman told AFX Global Ethics
Monitor."

This is unclear to me as exposure is now being discussed- not notional value. Exposure through derivatives implies almost unlimited gains or losses. Either they are exposed (positioned with derivatives) or they are not. The only way to hold derivative positions with an unbreakable loss limit would be to restrict trading to options only and to the buying only of these options. These are paid for in full upon purchase and can lose no more than this purchase price. Any big brokerage would never trade this way, at least not for long, as they'd have to be not only clairvoyant but awfully lucky to avoid going broke trading like this. This statement above does not make sense. ??

Boy, that was close! I was starting to think I was understanding this whole thing, that a simple statement from the brokerage had cleared the air. I should have known better....

ElGordo

(01/15/2003; 22:02:06 MDT - Msg ID: 94552)

Saddam's Arsenal

http://www.historychannel.com/ontv/index.htmlTonight on History Channel there is a program that some
claim proves Saddam has WMD. I'm on the west coast and
will watch here at 10 PM.

Galerider

(01/15/2003; 22:13:16 MDT - Msg ID: 94553)

US WEATHER/BLACK BLADE

Black Blade,
Question.....you were talking about natural gas and how inventories will be reduced. You also touched on future ability to feed the hungry (bone pile growing)...any read on the cold and what it will do to the crop areas for such staples as wheat and corn (i.e. moisture content, crop size). Thanks.

Black Blade

(01/15/2003; 22:32:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94554)

Job-Seekers: It's Cold Out There, Baby

http://www.cfo.com/printarticle/0,5317,8663|,00.html
Survey reveals 2003 will be a tough year for the unemployed.

Snippit:

What's the forecast for job searches in the coming year? "Cautiously optimistic," in consultant-speak; lousy, in English. The consultancy in question here is human-resources advisors DBM, which recently released its annual Workforce Predictions Survey for 2003. Apparently, when they say "cautious optimism," they mean really cautious. "Indications are that workforce conditions in 2003 will challenge job seekers, employees, and employers alike," said DBM president Tom Silveri. Specifically, 52 percent of the more than 800 U.S. and Canadian HR executives surveyed anticipate layoffs this year, with one in ten expecting to reduce their workforce by as much as 20 percent.

Black Blade: I know that most of us here have heard it all before that the US economy is in recovery � even a "jobless recovery". The fact is that the economy is in real serious trouble. Many of the media pundits tout the rising unemployment figures as a "lagging indicator". The sad thing is this "lagging indicator" has been lagging for three years running and will continue to lag for several years more. Another quaint remark that I often hear is that the economy and stock markets will get better in the "second half". That's pure BS of course. If anything it will get worse and how much worse is anyone's guess. The next whammy to hit the economy will probably be the collapse of the real estate bubble. The Fed must weaken the dollar and will do so by firing up the printing presses 24/7 as suggested by Greenspan and Bernanke. This will raise interest rates to encourage investment while at the same time raising mortgage rates. The question is whether the Fed is ready to face inflation/stagflation now or try to put it off until later creating a lot more pain either way. I must admit that the PPI data took me by surprise today. Everyone is well aware that costs are rising so the weighting of the index must be biased enough to come up with deflationary looking data. Today the market gave us a gift as speculators sold gold for profits as banks sold gold to lessen the pain on the approach of expiry Friday. This gives us an opportunity to add undervalued precious metals to our portfolios if not already done. The Asians are accumulating in quantity � most notably the Chinese (not just citizens but the central bank too). The fundamental case for Gold is very strong given the likelihood of falling production, economic weakness, falling dollar, and geopolitical concerns. Other than that grab a cold one and watch with amusement as the Lemmings line up next to the boiling cauldron while Wall Street dishes out large servings of Lemming Stew.

Trojan

(01/15/2003; 22:34:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94555)

From GATA (With Permission)

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Flash! JP Morgan Chase has been compelled by a reporter for a foreign news agency to
answer questions about its gold derivatives, and some financial analysts have responded skeptically to the firm's explanation.

The story below was distributed today by AFX News, a division of the major French news service, Agence France-Presse.

The story wrongly implies that GATA has been spreading "rumors" about Morgan Chase.

Actually, GATA has been spreading only the data on Morgan Chase that is on file at the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the
Currency, and everything GATA has said about the firm is recorded in public in our archive on the Internet here:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/messages

The story's last sentence is obviously some silly misunderstanding, since it asserts that "GATA denies it has a long position on gold." GATA is as long as could be on gold and would be longer still if GATA Chairman Bill Murphy hadn't tried drawing to an inside straight in a poker game at a mining camp near Vancouver last year.

No matter, for the AFX News story is
remarkable simply for its attempt at real journalism. A reporter actually picked up the telephone and tried holding a powerful Wall Street firm to account. More than that, she tested the firm's assertions with financial experts, and quoted them unfavorably about the firm.

As far as GATA knows, this has never been done before. Maybe the financial world can be changed, as GATA has sought to change it. Maybe even the news media can be changed.

Please distribute this story as widely as possible.

It will raise questions and maybe give others some aspirations to journalism.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
JP Morgan says risk exposure
in gold derivatives less than $10 million
By Anupama Chandrasekaran
AFX News
http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?

Chris Powell

(01/15/2003; 22:48:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94556)

Analysts doubt Morgan's denial of gold derivative liability

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1385Analysts are skeptical of Morgan's dismissal
of its gold derivative liability:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1385

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Chris Powell

(01/15/2003; 22:53:42 MDT - Msg ID: 94557)

Portugal admits that most of its gold is gone

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1386Portugal admits that most of its gold is gone,
and it looks like people are coming to claim
the rest:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1386

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Black Blade

(01/15/2003; 23:08:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94558)

Re: Galerider, El Gordo, all - Grains, Weather and Energy Supply

I discussed the drought situation this summer and the impact on grain stores. Grain production was down but late season moisture yielded an adequate crop in the heartland for the US. So far there hasn't been much moisture to fill reservoirs this winter and unless we get some moisture we could be looking at further depletions of grain reserves. SE Asia and Australia have had a dismal growing season with drought conditions and this could significantly reduce world grain supply unless conditions improve. The cold US weather has not been accompanied with much snow and unless we get some we could be looking at yet another drought year in the nation's primary growing regions. However, it is still early so hopefully El Ni--o we bring in some moisture.

This summer I discussed the potential for another energy crisis due to the reduced drilling activity and growth of NatGas fired power generation. Wall Street blew off these concerns because of the large storage data. Another problem is that investment financing did not materialize as general mistrust of the energy industry gained momentum in the wake of Enron. The US economy deteriorated so much that energy companies came under pressure with low oil and gas prices while at the same time credit rating agencies downgraded corporate debt. Energy companies were and still are forced to draw on current storage to shore up finances leaving little for exploration and production activities.

There was a lot of praying to the weather gods for another mild winter, however, as I pointed out several months ago � just a normal winter would create havoc with rising energy costs let alone a colder winter. A "perfect storm" of sorts has materialized now as temperatures are much lower than expected and is accompanied by declining oil inventories in the face of the Venezuelan oil workers strike, declining production, and looming war in the Middle East. Existing NatGas production from mature fields is declining fast as well and yet no significant efforts are being made to tackle the problem.

Those who I have talked to in the industry have said is will get much worse for the following reasons: Many energy companies are awaiting the outcome of the proposed "energy policy" that has yet to be voted on and for access to public (and even non-public) lands while the courts, government agencies and environmental groups dicker over various regulations and production methods. Others are awaiting the outcome of litigation and negotiations with some utility commissions over the last energy crisis such as that in California. Some players have expressed an unwillingness to continue doing business in these hostile environs. Also, many in the industry are just fed up and are simply willing to let the energy situation go beyond critical to force the issue to a conclusion.

In short we are going to see this energy crisis go ballistic and crush any possible hope of any economic recovery. It should get quite "interesting".

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/15/2003; 23:28:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94559)

There's an upside to dollar's downfall

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/134615543_weakdollargood15.html
Snippit:

Since early last year, the dollar has fallen more than 20 percent against the euro, the currency that represents 12 European nations, and about 10 percent vs. the Japanese yen. And foreign-exchange analysts say more weakness could be ahead. Factors that have been undermining the dollar recently include worries about possible war with Iraq and the future course of the U.S. stock market. That's a big switch from just a few years back, when the dollar was considered the most favored currency in the world. Its strength was due in part to the surging U.S. financial markets, which spurred lots of dollar-buying from foreigners looking to invest here.

In addition, the U.S. government supported a "strong dollar" policy through most of the 1990s, so it would continually take steps to bolster the currency. While the Bush administration says it supports a strong dollar, it hasn't taken much action. That might be because a weak dollar isn't so bad right now for our current economic state. It makes U.S. goods less expensive abroad, which can potentially boost demand for our products and services because they may be cheaper than what is manufactured in local foreign markets. And when imports here jump in price, that means U.S. manufacturers don't have to discount as much to compete. That helps their pricing power, which in turn wards off some deflationary risks.

Black Blade: The Fed must weaken the dollar as I see it. The "strong dollar" policy is dead. The prez fired former Treasury Secretary Paul O�Neil who supported this insane policy while the US economy tumbled deeper into recession even as competing currencies fell as well. Of course Gold will respond positively as the dollar weakens.

GratefulForGold

(01/15/2003; 23:54:22 MDT - Msg ID: 94560)

Hipplebeck #94474 - Re Jim Sinclair

http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/vip/2003/0113.htm
Hipplebeck, I'm surprised by this Jim Sinclair link. I've finally had time to read it...was diligently reading along until I came to the Q&A section. Then appeared an abbreviated version of a Q&A that had made the rounds a couple of months ago. The material in the original Q&A was and is alarming (and I saved it somewhere but can't find it now). But someone on the G-E Forum back then pointed out that the respondent's name in the Q&A was, er, rather "curious." The name "Al-Asuquf" (if spelled backwards) was indeed enough to make most people dismiss the entire "interview" as a hoax.

But, since this is on Sinclair's website, I simply don't know what to think!! I would suspect that this Q&A's not getting published may have had more to do with the word play with the guy's name, rather than Sinclair's supposition of it being "due to its highly revealing [inflammatory?] contents." Perhaps Sinclair was just alarmed to find some of his "teachings" being used by supposed Islamic terrorists, I don't know.

Anyway, hoax or not, I thought WHAT was said in the original, longer, Q&A had a lot of validity. If Sinclair was going to refer to it, I wish he'd have published the entire Q&A. Do you have any thoughts?

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 00:18:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94562)

N Korea goes on Alert

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20030116-72466627.htmNorth Korea's military has been alerted to prepare to increase its combat readiness, but U.S. intelligence officials said the notice does not indicate an increased danger of conflict.

The alert was sent to North Korean military units earlier this month and comes amid heightened tensions over Pyongyang's violation of nuclear arms agreements.

"The alert said 'get ready to get ready,'" according to one intelligence official.

Another official said the alert appeared similar to the heightened status of North Korea's million-member army prior to the 1991 Persian Gulf war. "The difference now is the nuclear problem," said another official.
_________
The long range missile they have can reach western US now.

Trojan

(01/16/2003; 00:55:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94563)

Here We Go, Alice "To The Moon" Jackie Gleason

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61357-2003Jan15.htmlTalk about low balling it.

Bush Budget Chief says 200 to 300 Billion Deficit is New Target.

To The Moon, Folks :-)

Trojan

(01/16/2003; 01:03:53 MDT - Msg ID: 94564)

I'm So Excited, I Can Hardly Wait "The Smoking Gun"

http://www.opinion.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/01/16/wirq116.xml&sSheet=/news/2003/01/16/ixnewstop.htmlYes, It's coming. Karl says so. This should be GOOD.

Remember the Carter/Reagan days. The October Surprises.

Well now we probably will get the January Surprise.

Most likely IMHO on January 28TH during The President's State Of The Union Speech.

Karl said so in so many words in the Linked Article above.

Read On... War On...

Are You Ready ? Tony...

Black Blade

(01/16/2003; 01:31:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94565)

Plan to Prevent New California Power Crisis Proposed

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&box=ad_box_all2&tag=energy∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APiWpmxYgUGxhbiB0
Snippit:

San Francisco, Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- California must encourage power conservation and add generators and transmission lines in order to prevent a repeat of the energy crisis of 2000- 2001, which cost the state as much as $45 billion, a study said. Many of the problems that led to soaring wholesale prices, blackouts and the insolvency of California's two largest electric utilities remain, the Public Policy Institute of California said in the study. California's power-transmission capacity is inadequate and the state hasn't any program to sway power customers to cut usage when prices rise, the report said. There is a ``critical need for the state to reach an early consensus on where it wants to go with its energy sector,'' Christopher Weare, a research fellow at the institute and the study's author, said in an interview. Without new investments in California's energy infrastructure, ``we are essentially recreating one of the major causes'' of the energy crisis. Without a clear plan in place for California's power markets, energy companies will be less willing to make investments in the state, such as the development of new power plants or construction of natural-gas pipelines to serve electricity generators, ``leading to future shortages,'' the 121-page study said.

Black Blade: I had pointed this out long ago. The state has done absolutely nothing to remedy the bungled reregulation and is once again facing the same prospect of higher costs and rolling blackouts. The state continues to rely on increasing amounts of energy for the high demand tech industry and a growing population. They may find that they can no longer put off building their energy infrastructure and the benevolence of other states to provide energy. The last energy crisis pushed the state's economy over the edge, the next one will be more devastating. They had better grit their teeth for round 2.

Spartacus

(01/16/2003; 01:56:46 MDT - Msg ID: 94566)

(No Subject)

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,482-541109,00.html
"The American empire, a fine old British tradition"
By William Rees-Mogg

Black Blade

(01/16/2003; 01:59:45 MDT - Msg ID: 94567)

World Markets Go Negative

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asia and now Euro markets are in negative territory. Few are convinced of economic recovery.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/16/2003; 02:17:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94568)

Natural-Gas Producers Have Winter Blues

http://cgi.wn.com/?action=display&article=17976249&template=gas/indexsearch.txt∈dex=recent
Snippit:

NEW YORK (AP) � The weather outside is frightful, and inside the price of natural gas for home heating is far from delightful for consumers. Yet natural-gas producers � who might be expected to search for more of their precious commodity in such an environment � aren't ramping up exploration and don't expect to. Turns out the producers have their own winter blues: easy-to-access (read: cheap) U.S. reserves have been depleted, meaning explorers have to spend much more money looking for gas elsewhere. Natural-gas prices are now above $5 per million British thermal units, and more cold weather is expected. Meanwhile, U.S. inventories totaled 2.33 trillion cubic feet this past week. This is within the five-year historical range, but half a trillion cubic feet below the levels of a year ago. Experts fear the persistence of severe weather could force inventories as low as 800 billion cubic feet by April 1.

Black Blade: The kiss of death for the US economy. Nearly every new power plant is dependent on NG and some older ones can switch to light oil but with higher oil prices we are assured of an energy crunch.

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 02:30:14 MDT - Msg ID: 94569)

S Korea braces for potential War

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=578&u=/nm/20030116/ts_nm/korea_north_dc≺inter=1BEIJING/SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea (news - web sites) said on Thursday it was prepared for a worst-case scenario that included war on the peninsula if diplomacy failed to resolve the crisis over the North's suspected nuclear weapons ambitions.

Defense Minister Lee Jun told parliament that war would be unavoidable if diplomacy failed, even as Washington's top envoy for Asia warned that settling the issue would be a long, slow process.

Hipplebeck

(01/16/2003; 04:42:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94570)

GratefulForGold

http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/vip/2003/0113.htmI don't know if it was a hoax or not.
Sinclair says he has it on good authority that it is not, so who knows. Just because the name spelled backwards says, well, you know, doesn't necessarily mean it is a hoax. It could just be a clever alias.
Regardless, the answers still make sense to me. The US dollar is a house of cards. I personally believe we are on the edge of a very bad storm, and that is why the rush to war. If we can see that it is a house of cards, then so can our government employees and bankers. And so can the rest of the world. The importer has no clothes. It has only been a little over thirty years since we have gone off the gold standard and flooded the world with dollars. Greenspan has said many times it is unsustainable, it will reverse, and that he is constantly amazed that it has held up this long.
We are faced with probably thirty years of hard work and budget cutbacks just to get back to even, or to go and steal what we need to keep our superior position. In these days of instant gratification, I expect the temptation is too great.
It will probably be war, and I expect we will probably lose in the long run because it is hard to justify war on immoral foundations.

When rich speculators prosper
While farmers lose their land;
when government officials spend money
on weapons instead of cures;
when the upper class is extravagant and irresponsible
while the poor have nowhere to turn-
all this is robbery and chaos.
It is not in keeping with the Tao.
Lao Tzu

Black Blade

(01/16/2003; 05:34:34 MDT - Msg ID: 94571)

Market Indicators

http://www.crbtrader.com/data/mktcom.asp
The USD is lower, PMs are flat, oil is surging higher, and NatGas is slightly higher. The US market index futures are lower this morning but above "fair value". Today we get weekly unemployment and NG inventory data. Gold could trade wildly as tomorrow is expiry. If anything it should be an "entertaining" day on Wall Street.

- Black Blade

misetich

(01/16/2003; 05:37:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94572)

JP Morgan denial

"The risk of contracts is held by our clients and we actually don't have any risk associated in the contracts."

Misetich

Further thoughts - Assuming and giving JP Morgan the benefit of doubt that the statement is correct - and assuming JP Morgan borrowed/leased gold directly from CB's and leased it to a miner who sold it and invested proceeds in Treasuries thus the "premium gold program" ei) Barrick Gold -

Isn't JP Morgan stuck with the potential risk default of the miner IF the hedging program blows out?

Most of the gold sold forward by miners took place between $280 to $400 - and rolled forward etc.

However with interest rates being what they are today this "rollerover" is getting trickier for them is it not?

Of course it is conceivable that these miners have also purchased long positions to counteract their liability-

The bottom line - PHYSICAL GOLD IS GONE

If GATA, Veneroso etc. are correct that 16,000 tons of CB leased gold is gone - how are the present/future physical demand going to be met as production lags demand?

and how is JP Morgan going to be affected?

The longer the US economy continues to underperform - interest rates are maintained at these levels - the US $ continues the descend - Gold demand as an investment will rise - as gold shorts including miners are forced to hedge continuosly higher and higher as their previous hedging contracts expire

it appears that their statement of $10 million liability exposure to gold is a farce

Got gold?

Hipplebeck

(01/16/2003; 05:51:15 MDT - Msg ID: 94573)

Trojan-concerning North Korea

http://www.kimsoft.com/korea/kmc-324.htmIf you want to see the real chess match that is going on, read this article very carefully. Who is playing into whose hands? Remember, this article was written in 1999.
-----------------------------------------------------------

The Geneva agreement has two key provisions: one is the turnkey delivery of two lightwater nuclear reactors to Pyongyang by 2003
and the other establishment of full diplomatic relations between Pyongyang and Washington.

However, work on the construction of reactors is yet to start, leaving only three years before the target date, which is clearly
impossible to meet, even if they should race against time. The DPRK has only to wait and see. Eventually in a few years, probably
before the end of the century, the Americans will be forced to propose a key change to the 1994 agreement by advising the north
Koreans that there is no completing the KEDO project by the deadline agreed on and asking for their consent to postponing the target
date by up to ten years.

The likely first north Korean response will be "Delinquent!" "Deception!" and threats to resume their suspended nuclear activities. The
American option will be either imposition of economic sanctions or offer of downright establishment of full diplomatic relations and
conclusion of a peace treaty to replace the present fragile armistice agreement.

Since the declaration of economic sanctions or any attempt to blackmail the north Koreans into submission is bound to lead to
resumption of full-scale hostilities in Korea, the worst-case scenario it is not prepared for, the United States will be left with no
alternative but to agree to establish full diplomatic relations and negotiate a peace treaty .

This eventuality will make irrelevant the south Korean regime or the Republic of Korea. The anti-DPRK, anti-democratic National
Security Law, the all-powerful legal weapon with which the successive regimes in Seoul has kept the south Korean population in line
and condemned tens of thousands of people to death or imprisoned numerous democratic and patriotic champions of reunification, will
have to go.

Hundreds of thousands of people will take to streets in Seoul and other parts of south Korea, demanding honorable reinstatement of
those punished under the law, compensation and a special tribunal to try the former officials in the successive dictatorial regimes,
including the present Kim Yong Sam administration and in the one to be installed next February.

A new democratic coalition government will be formed in Seoul and undertake thorough political, legal, economic, social, and cultural
reforms and prepare south Korea for reunification with north Korea. The new national-unity government will be more respon sive to
peace overtures from Pyongyang.

If the Americans should manage to meet the target date by all means, which is unlikely, the same eventuality would occur. Besides,
given the fact that overland transportation and direct flights across the DMZ are much easier and less costly than maritime
transportation or air flights by way of Beijing, smooth and speedy progress of the KEDO project will soon compel the Americans and
the south Koreans to opt to dismantle the Military Demarcation Line. Hundreds of, thousands of south Korean engineers will h ave to
ply between two parts of Korea. These developments will also go a long way to nullifying the National Security Law.

In other words, the political, legal, economic, and social systems that have ruled south Korea since the 1948 installation of the
Syngman Rhee regime will have to be totally reconsidered and revised. Otherwise, the 1994 agreement and the KEDO project will go
nowhere.

Secondly, despite its international image as an independent and sovereign country, the status of south Korea as a client state,
second-class ally of the United States will be called into serious question when the government of Marshal Kim Jong Il ends up
establishing full diplomatic relations and ending the state of war with the United States without south Korean participation.

South Korea has not been involved in any of all the key matters relating to peace and security on the Korean Peninsula. The Korean
armistice agreement was negotiated and signed by the north Korean and American representatives in defiance of the south Kore an
objection. The 1968 Pueblo, 1976 Poplar Tree and 1994 chopper incidents were resolved through direct bilateral negotiations between
the DPRK and the United States.

The most spectacular case in point is the September 1997 submarine incident. A north Korean submarine was found grounded off
Kangrung, south Korea, not off New York or Florida or California or Hawaii, but the incident was discussed and settled by north
Korean and American negotiators in their 11 rounds of bilateral talks in New York.

The successful implementation of the nuclear agreement will bring the client-state, second-class status of south Korea home to its
people who have long-standing doubts on the nature of the Seoul regime. The south Korean people will be encouraged to topple the
outdated, anti-Korean government in Seoul and install a new democratic government which will reassert independence from the United
States and seek to renegotiate the defense treaty and the status of forces agreement with Washington.

Thirdly, the anti-people, undemocratic nature of the successive regimes including the current Kim Yong Sam government will be
revealed once again for all to see in striking contrast with the DPRK under the leadership of Marshal Kim Jong Il. The south Korean
people will emerge victors in Seoul by dethroning the undemocratic regime, inspired by the full display of Koreanism in the DPRK. By
2003, the DPRK leader will have been credited with talking on an equal footing with the United States and ending the state of war with
the world's sole superpower, a shining diplomatic and political exploit unprecedented in world history -- the feat which the successive
south Korean regimes have been unequal to.

The first south Korean ruler called Syngman Rhee was flown to Seoul to be in stalled as a client of America, only to be toppled in a
student uprising and airlifted out of south Korea. Gen. Park Chung Hee, a former Japanese imperial army officer, was shot to death by
his KCIA chief, who claimed to have American backing. Gen. Chun Du Hwan was disgraced by Gen. Ro Tae U, both of whom are
now in jail, the former being a death-row inmate and the other serving a life sentence. Kim Yong Sam is most likely to face a similar
fate.

All these rulers amassed billions of dollars worth of fortunes while in power. They all staged bloody clampdowns on the local people
who demanded democracy and reunification. Reportedly, Kim Yong Sam is planning to seek asylum in Canada immediately after his
term expires in February next year and live on the huge amount of dollars he has siphoned off from the state coffers into his secret
accounts.

Christian

(01/16/2003; 05:54:58 MDT - Msg ID: 94574)

Full Parity

GDP violates basic accounting principals and common sense by trating the depletion of national resource capital as income rather than as depreciation of an asset. This GDP accounting system does not reflect depletion or degradation of the natural resources used to produce goods and services. As a result, the more the nation depletes its natural resources to produce goods and services, the more the GDP goes up. GDP does not account the increased spending by borrowing from abroad. The present GDP treats crime, drug abuse, property damage, resource degration, and financial speculation costs as economic advances. Presently the GDP consists of borrowing resources from the future (25,000 tonnes gold short position), borrowing home equity to finance spending, and resource depletion from degrating of our forests, oil, coal and mineral deposits. All money is debt money in our system. There is no other source of money except to borrow it into existence that makes up our GDP. How in the world can debt be retired with debt dollars? Debt is only the consequence of a lack of honest commodity money parity in debt free form. With debt free commodity money we'd have real income, which would enable us to come to parity with debt. As long as income cannot be dollarized except by becoming more debt there is no way out. Debt is the consequence of a lack of honest money.

Brett Woods

(01/16/2003; 06:08:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94575)

Counter party and risk

Did JPM borrow gold, sell it, loan proceeds to Enron controlled shell companies which then contracted with parent company for goods never delivered and paid with loan money so Enron could book the loan as revenue? Is such a transaction legitimately insured?

***
JP Morgan, Enron, and Gold

By James Turk, Editor
The Freemarket Gold & Money Report
www.FGMR.com
Letter 317, January 6, 2003

Copyright 2003 by The Freemarket Gold & Money Report

I have today mailed the following letter to
the Enforcement Division of the Securities
and Exchange Commission. It's about time that
we learn the truth regarding JP Morgan
Chase's activity in the gold market, the full
extent of its gold exposure, and whether it
used gold loans to fund the so-called
"disguised loans" that it arranged for Enron.
Perhaps the SEC will help us learn the truth
by investigating these matters and reporting
the results.

* * *

Dear Sir/Madam:

I am writing in regard to recent statements
made by the management of JP Morgan Chase
(JPM) relating to its activity in the gold
market. This is to ask for your determination
whether their statements are false or
misleading.

On January 2nd JPM announced that it had
reached an out-of-court settlement with
several insurance companies regarding JPM's
involvement with Enron. You will recall that
these insurance companies had initiated this
litigation, alleging in their lawsuit brought
in New York federal court that certain
trading transactions between JPM and Enron
were shams, thereby negating the insurance
contracts covering these transactions.

In a press conference subsequent to their
January 2nd announcement, JPM management
commented on rumors relating to its activity
in the gold market. I refer to the following
CBSMarketWatch report by Luisa Beltran and
Greg Morcroft published on January 2, 2003:

"[JP Morgan Chase] executives said that,
despite persistent rumors to the contrary, it
has no exposure to the recent run-up in gold
prices. 'We don't have any real exposure to
gold. I don't know where that rumor keeps
coming from, but it's not true,' CEO Harrison
said. 'We have seen this rumor pop up again
and again,' added chief counsel McDavid, 'and
we have asked the SEC to look into it.'"

I have no specific knowledge about these
rumors, other than what I have learned from
the media. But I am very pleased to hear that
the SEC has been asked to investigate them.
In this regard, I am writing to bring the
following matters to your attention.

Given that these so-called rumors "pop up
again and again" as Mr. McDavid states,
perhaps they have some basis in fact. It is a
well-established truth that "buzz" about a
company will often circulate before an event.

For example, rumors about derivative problems
in Long Term Capital Management circulated
well before that company's collapse. More
recently, word of potential problems in Enron
circulated freely, much of which was reported
in the media. The protracted drop in Enron's
share price for several months before the
resignation of its CEO, which itself occurred
three months before that company's
bankruptcy, was an indication that the market
believed (as evidenced by that company's
declining share price) the rumors about
Enron's problems had some basis in fact.

In both of these instances, company
management denied that there was any
substance to the so-called "rumors" that were
circulating, as JPM management has now also
similarly done. I also bring to your
attention the decline in JPM's share price
that occurred last year while these rumors
about its gold exposure circulated.

Thus, your investigation into the rumors
about JPM's activity in the gold market is
timely, but the focus of your investigation
should not be, as JPM management implies, how
these so-called "rumors" started. Rather,
your investigation should determine whether
these rumors have any basis in fact. If they
do, then this is to also ask for your
determination whether the statements above by
Messrs. Harrison and McDavid are false or
misleading.

To assist you, I would like to bring the
following matters to your attention:

1) The Wall Street Journal published an
insightful article about JPM and Enron on
January 25, 2002 ("Insurers Balk at Paying
Bank Up to $1 Billion in Claims On Complex
Transactions"). That article provides an
overview about the financing provided by JPM
to Enron, through Mahonia Ltd., a company
Chase Manhattan (one of JPM's predecessor
companies) established in the Channel
Islands.

The article states:

"Prepaying for future delivery of a commodity
is known as a 'gold trade,' because it is the
way gold bullion has been trading for
centuries. In recent years, trading
companies, whether from Houston or Wall
Street, have been making more use of this
structure to buy and sell oil, natural gas
and other commodities. Some commercial banks,
including Chase Manhattan had to set up part
of these trades overseas because their
banking charters wouldn't allow them to take
delivery of commodities."

The article describes what is generally known
as a commodity swap, and gold is frequently
used in one side of the transaction. As an
ex-banker (1969 to 1980), I have some
knowledge about how these transactions work,
as banks are a facilitator for them.

When gold is used to finance a commodity
swap, bullion is borrowed from a central
bank, and sold to raise dollars, which are
then used to purchase the commodity on the
other side of the transaction (oil and gas in
the case of Enron). It is noteworthy that the
WSJ article specifically mentions a "gold
trade"; given this remark, anyone
knowledgeable about commodity swaps might
naturally assume that JPM/Mahonia was
arranging gold-for-energy swaps for Enron.

Thus, this WSJ article may be the original
source of the so-called "rumors" referred to
by JPM management. But importantly, this WSJ
article also suggests that these rumors may
have some basis in fact.

The article did not specifically state from
where Mahonia was obtaining the funding
needed to purchase the commodity contracts it
acquired from Enron (the so-called "disguised
loans" the insurance companies contended were
shams). Nor did a WSJ article published
August 13, 2002, ("Enron Probe Shines Harsh
Light on Financiers") disclose the nature or
the original source of the funding needed to
complete these commodity swaps, but this
later article does provide more information
about potential gold activities by JPM in its
dealings with Enron:

"In the world of commodities, particularly
gold trading, the 50-year-old Mr. Mehta
[Chase's and then JPM's head gold trader] was
well known. His successful marketing of
derivatives, and his enthusiasm for the use
of these instruments, helped the gold-hedging
business take off in the 1990s. Mr. Mehta and
his team executed [deals which] allowed Enron
to use an offshore vehicle known as Mahonia
to raise hundreds of millions of dollars from
J.P. Morgan."

Taken together, there are enough facts
disclosed in these two WSJ articles to
suggest that gold loans could be one possible
source of funding for Mahonia's commodity
swaps with Enron, and if so, these gold loans
could lead to the "gold exposure" denied by
JPM management.

2) An article about Enron in The New York
Times published on February 17, 2002, was
important for the following statement (note
the emphasis added by me):

"Partly because of the way the loans [by
JPM/Mahonia to Enron] were accounted for, the
company [i.e., Enron] reported A SURGE IN ITS
HEDGING ACTIVITY, ACCOMPLISHED USING
FINANCIAL CONTRACTS CALLED DERIVATIVES,
DURING ITS LAST FEW YEARS. When pressed about
the increase by skeptical analysts, Enron
officials said the numbers reflected hedges
for commodity trades, not new financing, the
analysts said."

The key point here is the "surge" in
derivative contracts entered into by Enron
"during its last few years." Each derivative
has two parties to the contract. To my
knowledge it has not been disclosed who took
the other side of the Enron contracts, but
the following information from the U.S.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
offers one possible answer.

According to its website, the OCC "charters,
regulates, and supervises national banks to
ensure a safe, sound, and competitive banking
system that supports the citizens,
communities, and economy of the United
States." As part of this responsibility it
collects information about the derivative
exposure of the nation's banks.

The disclosure by Chase Manhattan Bank
(before its merger with Morgan Bank) is
telling. In three years from December 31,
1997, to December 31, 2000, there was a surge
in Chase's gold derivative contracts from
$11.8 billion to $29.8 billion. Because of
the merger, it is not possible to determine
from the OCC reports Chase's derivative
activity for 2001. But looking at the
derivative exposure of JPM on a combined
basis subsequent to its merger, it is
noteworthy that after the Enron bankruptcy at
the end of 2001, the gold derivative activity
of JPM was unchanged -- at $41.0 billion
reported at December 31, 2001, and $41.0
billion as of September 30, 2002, the latest
reporting period available. Thus, Chase's
derivative contracts in gold surged while
Enron's derivative contracts surged, and then
remained unchanged after Enron collapsed.

This pattern suggests that it is possible
Chase (and JPM as its successor) was the
counterparty to Enron's derivative contracts.
Further, this growth in gold derivative
contracts provides further evidence to the
possibility I note above that gold was used
by Mahonia to fund the commodity swaps (the
so-called "disguised loans") that it entered
into with Enron.

The August 13, 2002, Wall Street Journal
article states:

"Mr. Mehta has had other high-profile scrapes
with controversy while at the bank. For
instance, Mr. Mehta came under fire for the
bank's earlier arrangements with Sumitomo
Corp., the Japanese trading company and the
employer of a copper rogue trader named Yasuo
Hamanaka who lost $2.6 billion in copper
trades. Mr. Mehta's team structured a number
of derivatives transactions that allowed Mr.
Hamanaka to raise money that didn't appear to
senior Sumitomo executives as debt, said
people familiar with the deals."

Thus, perhaps the rumors circulating about
JPM's gold exposure have some basis in fact.
In any case, the above material does
highlight the importance of your
investigation.

I note again Mr. Harrison's statement: "We
don't have any real exposure to gold."
Perhaps in your investigation you can ask him
to define the term "real." That JPM has
exposure to gold is undeniable from the OCC
reports. And there are different kinds of
exposure from derivatives -- price risk and
counter-arty risk.

It may be that through its derivative
contracts, JPM believes it does not have any
price exposure to gold. However, while the
gold market has been generally quiescent and
its price relatively stable the past few
years, gold in recent weeks has become very
active.

As we have learned from the collapse of Long
Term Capital Management, volatility
undermines what otherwise may appear to be a
safe derivatives position. So we will see in
the weeks and months ahead whether JPM's
derivative exposure to the gold price is
indeed under control.

Given the size of its position, it may be
difficult for JPM to keep its price risk
controlled. JPM's gold derivative exposure of
$41 billion of notional value represents 117
million ounces of gold -- a number that is
nearly 50 percent greater than all the gold
produced worldwide in a year. Thus it seems
likely that the gold market may not be able
to provide the liquidity JPM will need to
keep its gold derivative position in balance
in a period of increased gold price
volatility, which is a result that would
clearly negate Mr. Harrison's contention that
JPM does not have "any real exposure to
gold."

Then there is counterparty risk, which is
always present because the financial position
of companies changes. Counterparties deemed
creditworthy when JPM entered into derivative
contracts may no longer be financially as
strong as before. Further, if in fact the
simultaneous surge in Enron's and JPM's
derivative contracts was not just
coincidental and they were counterparties to
each other, one has to wonder whether JPM has
any ongoing exposure to Enron in these
derivative contracts.

It is noteworthy that JPM's most recent 10-Q
shows that derivative receivables rose $16.4
billion, or 23.0 percent, in the nine months
from December 31, 2001, to $87.5 billion as
of September 30. The net change is actually
25 percent when adjusting derivative
receivables as of December 31, 2001, to
reclassify to Other Assets the Enron-related
surety receivables from the insurance
companies in the case now settled.

Does this glaring (and potentially alarming)
surge in derivative receivables reported by
JPM reflect an inability of JPM's
counterparties to deliver under their
derivative contract commitments?

And perhaps more importantly, to help
evaluate the accuracy and therefore
reliability of Mr. Harrison's statement, what
portion of this derivative receivable relates
to gold?

The point is that certain aspects of JPM's
derivative disclosure appear to be
inadequate. Thus, this is to ask that you
make a determination in your investigation
whether JPM's disclosure about its gold
derivatives has been sufficient, and indeed
whether the statements by its management
about JPM's gold exposure are not false or
misleading.

Lastly, your Internet site states: "The laws
and rules that govern the securities industry
in the United States derive from a simple and
straightforward concept: All investors,
whether large institutions or private
individuals, should have access to certain
basic facts about an investment prior to
buying it. To achieve this, the SEC requires
public companies to disclose meaningful
financial and other information to the
public, which provides a common pool of
knowledge for all investors to use to judge
for themselves if a company's securities are
a good investment."

To achieve this objective, the SEC must
investigate JPM in order to determine whether
it is providing the investing public with
sufficient disclosure on its gold exposure,
which from the OCC reports is undeniable.

Further, the SEC must determine whether the
statements above by JPM management are false
or misleading.

I look forward to reading and learning the
results of your investigation.

For the sake of disclosure, I do not have any
position in the stock of JPM.

Yours truly,

James Turk
***

steady

(01/16/2003; 06:17:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94576)

gold fever!

http://www.angelfire.com/music5/dixie7b/goldfever.wavi think the hobbits the wizards the fair maidens andthe knights and lords at this table will like this lil ditty of a song!

Hipplebeck

(01/16/2003; 06:26:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94577)

Trojan

The north korean article I posted below, may have been written before 1999. It refers to a target date in the 1994 agreement as being three years away, but it also refers to Kim Yong Sam as being leader of South Korea.

mikal

(01/16/2003; 06:47:49 MDT - Msg ID: 94578)

@Hipplebeck

http://www.yt.org/article.php?sid=992That was a very interesting and informative article you posted, even if some of it was dated. Thanks. Here is another:
Printed on Wednesday, January 15, 2003 Power and Interest News Report (PINR) (Read background report)
Excerpts:
(PINR) -- Carefully playing its cards, North Korea may have successfully brought the United States to the negotiating table. Angry over being labeled as part of the "axis of evil," along with the failure of the U.S. to live up to its energy commitments agreed to in 1994, Pyongyang took advantage of the looming war in Iraq to complicate U.S. strategic goals and to thrust North Korea's political and economic concerns on to the global stage.....
More importantly, North Korea's tactics give justification for the Bush administration's plans to build a missile defense shield. While the Bush administration claims the missile defense shield will be used to counter the North Korean threat, Beijing fears that the United States is attempting to cage the growing Asian dragon. Along with establishing new military bases on China's western borders, the United States already has bases to the south and east of China, forming a half-circle around the country. With a successful missile defense shield, much of China's military in the Pacific would be rendered technologically useless.
Beijing's fear is fast becoming a reality, as Japan's military establishment seems to have gained more clout in Tokyo after Pyongyang's recent moves. The Koizumi government has already dispatched the controversial state-of-the-art Japanese Aegis destroyer to set sail to the Indian Ocean to assist the U.S.-led "war on terrorism." The U.S. is discussing the implementation of the Navy Theater Wide Defense (NTWD) system that could be installed on Aegis warships; these mobile missile defense systems could severely weaken China's military threat and reduce Beijing's political clout. Many of China's ballistic missiles could become ineffective by a NTWD system.
Even more worrisome to China is the emergence of a small group in Japan calling for the creation of nuclear weapons to protect the island nation. Despite Japan's strong anti-war stance, embedded into the constitution after World War II, the nuclear debate has finally entered the political arena. In April of 2002, Japan's Liberal Party president Ichiro Ozawa boasted that Japan could create "thousands of nuclear warheads" very quickly should it become necessary. A nuclear Japan would greatly minimize China's political and military power in all of Asia.
For these reasons, Beijing will be informing Pyongyang that they should accept the recent U.S. offer for negotiations. North Korea will most likely accept Kelly's overture. So far, Pyongyang has been careful to reassure the world that they have "no intentions of building nuclear weapons." But Pyongyang may become overly zealous and create a situation from which it will have difficulty backing down. Such a situation could redirect South Korean negative sentiment away from the United States and toward Pyongyang. That result will not be in the best interests of Kim Jong-il's North Korea. -End snippit.
Erich Marquardt drafted this report; Matthew Riemer contributed. Original source: www.pinr.com

Clink!

(01/16/2003; 06:51:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94579)

@Hipplebeck

Interesting poem - could you give us some background on the poet ? It seems so apt for our current situation that I am ready to be told that it was written in the 15th century or something !

mikal

(01/16/2003; 06:59:16 MDT - Msg ID: 94580)

@Hipplebeck

http://www.yt.org/article.php?sid=920This older article is considered Part I or the background article to the one below:
PINR: "North Korea threat part of U.S. regional strategy"
Printed on Tuesday, December 10, 2002 @ 01:56:19 EST ��( )
Power and Interest News Report (PINR) -Excerpts:
.....North Korea has been yearning to strengthen its economy that has been constrained by international regulations disallowing economic aid from U.S.-controlled multilateral financial institutions. Pyongyang was hoping the 1994 U.S. � D.P.R.K. Agreed Framework would facilitate this.....
In addition to the TMD, the U.S. is also discussing the implementation of the Navy Theater Wide Defense (NTWD) system that could be installed on U.S. and Japanese Aegis warships. These mobile missile defense systems could severely weaken China's military threat and reduce Beijing's political clout. China is concerned that its ballistic missiles, pointed at Taipei to prevent their independence, could be rendered ineffective by a NTWD protecting Taiwan. While official recognition of China's threat to the U.S. would cause unwanted political ramifications, the touting of North Korea as a public threat provides a convenient justification for the development of both these new missile defense systems.
China is warily monitoring North Korea and U.S. relations. China is considered North Korea's closest ally, largely because China is protecting its southern border from unwanted influence. If North Korea should become politically unstable, it could prompt U.S. forces to move north from the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) -- where 37,000 U.S. troops help separate North and South Korea -- to fill any power vacuum created by a government breakdown. Such a move would cause instant conflict with China; therefore, China has both a vested military and political interest in maintaining their support of North Korea.
Besides North Korea and China, resistance to this U.S. strategy is coming from South Korea, which hopes to create stronger ties with North Korea in preparation for future reunification. The prospect of worsening relations with Pyongyang is not only scorned in Seoul, but is also feared.
North Korea has the fourth largest military in the world with over 1.2 million armed personnel compared with only 650,000 in South Korea. Military spending stands at 20-25 percent of the North's GNP. Pyongyang has the second-largest special operations force in the world, including 55,000 troops trained to operate behind enemy lines in case of warfare.
Because these troops are massed on the DMZ, the South Korean capital of Seoul would probably be decimated in any major conflict. This danger, and the high cost of war, explains South Korea's open-door policy towards the North, typified by South Korean Prime Minister Kim Dae-jung's Sunshine Policy. These divergent policies have created a political rift between South Korea and the United States.
The upcoming elections in South Korea may affect this conflict, especially if the less conciliatory Lee Hoi-chang is elected and takes a harder stance on North Korea. However, as mentioned above, it will be difficult for any South Korean government to be overly bold due to the tension along the DMZ.
The real variable is Japan. The U.S. has been counting on Japan's military establishment for support of the missile defense projects. The Koizumi government has been struggling to moderate between its military establishment -- closely linked to the United States -- and its regional allies such as South Korea, who want a less-hostile approach toward Pyongyang. Japan has been forced to reassess its diverging alliances; however, it is doubtful that it will risk straining ties with its largest export market, the United States.
Constrained by these alliance pressures, it is unlikely that the U.S. will risk direct military confrontation with North Korea. At the same time, Washington, keeping a wary eye on growing Chinese military and political influence, also considers it prudent to maintain North Korea as a perceived threat -- at least until the new Theater Missile Defense and Navy Theater Wide Defense systems are in place to help maintain the balance of regional power in favor of U.S. interests. -End snippits
Erich Marquardt drafted this report; Matthew Riemer, Gillian Norman contributed.
Source: http://www.pinr.com

Waverider

(01/16/2003; 07:20:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94581)

Spot 'n Spike

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlBite 'm boys....

Hipplebeck

(01/16/2003; 07:33:22 MDT - Msg ID: 94582)

war with America from North Korea viewpoint

http://www.kimsoft.com/interesting reading

Rock

(01/16/2003; 07:39:52 MDT - Msg ID: 94583)

Who's Lying Bush or Saddam? Time will tell!

Hipplebeck since you believe that Bush is lying regarding WMD in Iraq my question is IF they find the smoking gun that everyone is looking for would you then be convinced that Saddam is a liar and Bush was telling the truth? Would you then agree if Saddam doesn't disarm that war may be the only other way of disarming him?

As far as I'm concerned its not up to UN to find the smoking gun because we already know he has WMD, its up to Saddam to disarm. Some like Hipplebeck are of the mindset that since the UN can't find WMD that Saddam is telling the truth and that Bush wants war. All I can say is we will soon see who's telling the truth and who is lying.
By the way Hipplebeck that was a great article you posted from Sinclair regarding Al-Queda's choice of terror, excellent data.

Hey Blade I went to the club yesterday and did some intense unilateral training as you did recently. Its easy to get caught up in bilateral routines but we know the advantages of strengthening those weaker muscle groups that get easily overlooked using the standard bilateral movements.

Cheers,

Rock

Hipplebeck

(01/16/2003; 07:43:59 MDT - Msg ID: 94584)

Clink! Lao Tsu (Lao Tze)

http://www.chinapage.com/gnl.htmlaround 620 AD

Hipplebeck

(01/16/2003; 07:49:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94585)

Can N. Korea nuke Chicago?

http://www.kimsoft.com/2003/daepong2.htmnext move in the chess match

Hipplebeck

(01/16/2003; 07:53:22 MDT - Msg ID: 94586)

Rock

I think Saddam is lying.
I think there a lot of countries lying about their WMD.
I don't think we should bomb everyone because they want to protect themselves like we are. To pre-emptively attack means it is ok for N. Korea or Iran to nuke us now.

Clink!

(01/16/2003; 07:56:15 MDT - Msg ID: 94587)

@Hipplebeck

At least I was out by less than a thousand years !

Rock

(01/16/2003; 08:19:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94588)

Hot Off The Press!

Ricin suspects may have ties to Iraq terrorists, story developing. If ever there was a time to own gold now is the time. Gold, get you some.

Speaking of survival, it's time to change the water (every six months) in my 450 gallons of FDA drums. I purchased them for Y2K but I'm using them now as part of my emergency food storage program. One of the things I like about the castle is that most of us are survivors and we are trying to get the word out to others before its too late.

It brings to thought of a Biblical story of the seven virgins who were told to keep their oil lamps full so when the master of the house returned they would be ready to go out and meet him. The story goes on to say that only half of the virgins were prepared and when the master of the house returned they all began their journey to meet the master but at the half way mark some of the virgins ran out of light and those who were unprepared asked those who were prepared to give them some of their oil but the other virgins replied, if we give you our oil we won't have enough to make the journey.

The moral of the story, a lot of people won't be able to make the coming journey that is about to embark on them. I'll echo the words of Sir Blackblade, get out of debt, store some nonperishable, store some cash on hand for a few months, get some portfolio insurance in the form of gold and silver and may God be with you.

Rock

Rock

(01/16/2003; 08:30:15 MDT - Msg ID: 94589)

Re: Hipplebeck

I understand the arguments that can be made regarding different countries holding WMD and the different politics involved. Its too deep of a subject to elaborate on here at the castle especially when the King is nearby listening. That being said you still didn't answer my question.

If we find out that Iraq has WMD are you willing to;

1) disarm him if he won't disarm
2) leave him alone, chances are he's no threat to anyone.

Please choose number 1 or 2, lets cut to the chase.

Thanks again,

Rock

Hipplebeck

(01/16/2003; 08:48:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94590)

Rock

2- containment

Trojan

(01/16/2003; 08:50:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94591)

@ Hipplebeck Re: The Korean Issue

Hipplebeck, thank you for posting additional information on the Korean Situation. Your post # 94573 was very helpful as was the link to the Kimsoft site.

I consider myself an informed person and I don't think I am easily manipulated as I like to look at all sides of an issue before I take a position.

That being said just for purposes of what if ?

What If CNN or Nightline or CBS News ran this as a News Item.

They can do their Warning that "We Do Not Agree But In The Interest Of Showing How The Other Side Is Thinking We Present The Following"

My Closing Comments on this Post to follow after CNN runs the following in my What If Scenario.

What If: CNN ran this:

Bush's Talk of "Negotiation" Is Nothing But A Deceptive Trickery�

A sick drama to deceive the world - A spokesperson of the DPRK Foreign Ministry

Pyongyang (January 15, 2003 - KCNA) --� Regarding the false rumors of "negotiation with North Korea" being spread by the United States lately in order to mislead the world opinion, a spokesperson of the DPRK Foreign Ministry responded to a question put forth by KCNA today as follows:

It has been reported that several officials of the US Government have stated recently that they are ready to talk with us and that if we were to abandon our "nuclear weapons development plan", they may discuss food and energy assistance to us.� Some quarters of the world community have taken this statement as signaling a change in the US policy, from 'no negotiation and no reward' to a more conciliatory attitude.� On examining the substance of the statement, there is no change in the US policy of "give up your nukes first and then, we may talk", a conditional talk.� The American talks of "talk with North Korea" is nothing but a sick drama to deceive the world opinion.��

On the 14th of this month, a White House spokesman stated that "the United States will not negotiate but will talk to North Korea about meeting its obligations," thus reiterating the same old US policy.� We took seriously the US-Japan-Seoul joint declaration of January 7th that mentions negotiations, and consequently, we have done our best to start up negotiations with the United States.�

One day before our NPT pullout announcement on January 10th, a third nation informed us that the US "was ready" to start negotiations with us, and taking it seriously, we contacted the US State Department through our channel in New York.

The US State Department told our reprehensive curtly that� "we have nothing to say" about starting negotiations.��

To cite another example of the US hypocrisies, the United States claims without fail that it does not use humanitarian aids for political purposes.� The fact of the matter is that the United States wants to stop food aids to us on the lame excuse that our aid food distribution is not transparent.

What the United States is demanding for 'transparent' distribution of aid food is for us to open up our entire nation, including our military sites, to the US inspection - no transparency, no food.�

The United States says that we may get some food and energy aids, if we disarmed ourselves first.� The food and energy aids the United States is referring to are no more than cakes in a painting.� At a time when the US-Pyongyang tension is nearing the breaking point, the United States is saying that we must put down our arms first before it may discuss a non-aggression treaty and economic aids.

This is nonsensical and goes beyond the realm of common sense logic. The bottom-line is that the United States is not interested in any negotiated settlement of the crisis.�

The self-contradicting statements comeing from Washington are a ruse to deceive us and the world opinion in order to buy time for the other scheme of the United States.� It has been our desire to resolve the US-Pyongyang conflicts through negotiations as equal participants.� Our desire remains the same.�

We have made it clear to the US government that we are willing to solve our nuclear problem through negotiations, if the United States agree to recognize our government, sign a non-aggression treaty, and stop placing obstacles to our economic development.��
No matter how hard the Bush administration may try to trick us and the world opinion, no one is stupid enough to be duped.

Unless the United States changes its anti-Pyongyang policy in a fundamental way, the current crisis will persist and the United States will be held solely responsible for the consequences.�

End Of Article

You know, folks when Saddam says something you take it with a grain of salt because his words are just that, just words and slogans.

However I see the North Korean Leader in a different light. Why ? When I first saw the USA view of North Korea's response to the USA offer to resume Food Aid and Energy if North Korea disarms as kind of empty words. Example: "They are no more than cakes in a painting."

Sure it is if taken out of Context as it is if you take it from the Reposted Article above.

Why Not Full Disclosure ?

Why Not let People decide for themselves ?

If I had just come from another Planet and turned on a TV and watched a CNN Report on North Korea and then read the above article from North Korea, my reaction would be.

Why does the USA ignore what their Adversary is saying when what they say seems pretty clear.

All We Want Is Peace. We are Not An Axis Of Evil. We will disarm if we know YOU wan't Attack us.

Unless we have a Non-Aggression Pact, what good is your food and energy ? You could attack us at any time.

We have made it clear to the US government that we are willing to solve our nuclear problem through negotiations, if the United States agree to recognize our government, sign a non-aggression treaty, and stop placing obstacles to our economic development.��
No matter how hard the Bush administration may try to trick us and the world opinion, no one is stupid enough to be duped.

Now I see why Russia and China are backing North Korea though they pay lip service to the USA publically.

The more I know the clearer it becomes who the real Threat is.

Bush, Cheney and Rumsfield and ALL the Boys.

Note to them:

You are not playing with fools here. They may be Ruthless People but they are your equals in the Intellect Area.

Don't underestimate them. This is NOT Saddam. They are ready to FIGHT for their Rights..

And That's the way I see it until or unless someone convinces me otherwise.

Christian

(01/16/2003; 08:53:19 MDT - Msg ID: 94592)

Manipulation

The underlying manipulation affecting gold is the yen interest rate. Yen interest rates are lower than gold lease rates. Many Japanese are taking out equity from their overvalued real estate (homes) because they can't sell it to buy gold. The same is true in China. Japanese industrial production to export is moving to China just like ours is. Middle East is borrowing a lot of Yen's to buy gold with. They feel both the yen and the dollar will devalue at least 50% during the next 10 years as gold appreciates at least 100%. Greenspan is the most stuidest man on earth. In his attempt to lower interest rates to keep the bubble economy going he made it possible for speculators to destroy the dollar, the economy that goes with it.---- Who is lying - BUSH or SADDAM?? Both are. We (the Bush Clan) for the love of money sold him that crap and Saddam in his lust for power needs the crap to stay in power. He sold most of the crap to his neighbors and stored the rest at his oil wells. He is going to destroy his own wells and make it so no-one can operate them for many years. So far he has outsmarted us all, he is still in power and will be when this is over. Saddam is less of a DEVIL than Bush is. What he promised to do during the election process and what he is doing as dictator of the USA makes my point. The Bush Clan for the love of money will bankrupt this country. Not that Clinton was any better. The Bush Clan now has the largest short position in our financial markets ever made possible. That says it all what they stand for.

Trojan

(01/16/2003; 09:03:06 MDT - Msg ID: 94593)

@ Rock Re: Saddam

If we find out that Iraq has WMD are you willing to;

1) disarm him if he won't disarm
2) leave him alone, chances are he's no threat to anyone.

Please choose number 1 or 2, lets cut to the chase.

Thanks again,
Rock

How about (3)
What's wrong with letting it play out with the UN doing their Job ?

What's the rush ?

So it takes a year for the UN to find the Weapons if he still has them. Let the USA and Britain give ALL the Intelligence to the inspectors.

At least if Saddam messes up the UN can declare so.
Then All the UN will disarm Saddam.

The USA won't be the Bad Boys. You won't Recruit another 25,000 Terrorists for the Future.

Makes sense to me BUT then again, I'm not Bush Jr.

silvercollector

(01/16/2003; 09:06:54 MDT - Msg ID: 94594)

$354 on the button....

...is today the day!!!!

Trojan

(01/16/2003; 09:07:19 MDT - Msg ID: 94595)

@ Christian "I Couldn't Say It Better"

Re: Manipulation

Thank You

Zhisheng

(01/16/2003; 09:21:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94596)

Tao Te Ching (Hipplebeck 94570,94584; Clink! 94579)

Actually scholars are not sure exactly when was written the Tao Te Ching (pronounced and in the modern Pin Yin method now spelled Dao De Jing). But most common guesses seems to be some time in the 6'th century B.C.---over two and a half millennia ago!

Nothing seems to be known about Lao Tzu for certain---he is a mythological personage like Homer. But his influence on China has been and still is immense. Years ago I had some experience with a modern "religious--philosophical--qi-gong" organization in China, and when I was was told in perfect seriousness than the gifted and talented man who had founded the organization (in the early part of the 20'th century) had been personally tutored by Lao Tzu.

Chinese writing today is nearly all in the popular style--similar to the spoken language (bai hua wen), but in earlier times (18th century and before), it was in a condensed literary style (wen yen wen), which required considerable learning to understand. Translations are not always identical. For instance, Hipplebeck's selection from the 53'rd verse of the Tao Te Ching was the following:

When palaces are kept up
Fields are left to weeds
And granaries empty;
Wearing fine clothes,
Bearing sharp swords,
Glutting with food and drink,
Hoarding wealth and possessions -
These are the ways of theft,
And far from the Way.

In the hyperlink given by Hipplebeck to Lao Tzu the same is translated:

When rich speculators prosper
While farmers lose their land;
when government officials spend money
on weapons instead of cures;
when the upper class is extravagant and irresponsible
while the poor have nowhere to turn-
all this is robbery and chaos.
It is not in keeping with the Tao

Another translation by the missionary and Chinese scholar R. B. Blakely runs as follows:

The royal court is dignified, sedate,
While farmers� fields are overgrown with weeds;
The granaries are empty and yet they
Are clad in rich-embroidered silken gowns.
They have sharp swords suspended at their sides;
With glutted wealth, they gorge with food and drink.
It is, the people say,
The boastfulness of brigandage;
But surely not the Way!

sector

(01/16/2003; 09:29:15 MDT - Msg ID: 94597)

@ Misetich More on the 16,000 tonne central bank loss of gold

This number 16,000 tonnes really ins't subject to interpretation It is a fact, reported by the Bank for International Settlements in their Triennial Survey [Of ALL central banks] at their Tables E-41 and E-49 posted at the BIS website.

The gold forwards and swaps column is listed in dollars and has been [In the Howe Dec 4, 2003 commentary] converted to tonnes by using the customary end-of-period PM Fix gold price. This is a standard mark-to-market accounting practice.

The Triennial Survey covered nine years of central banks activity 1992 through 2001.

A forward and/or swap is the sale or swap of a specified gold bullion asset for another different asset class.

The issue is closed as to whether the central banks have lost half their gold. The flawed accounting notion that the lessees who sold the gold can effectively buy the gold back [And return it to the central banks] is absurd since that attempt would skyrocket the market price thus the "Receivable" definition carried by the Bundesbank's Annual Report is not a receivable at all since it cannot in reality be obtained on a reasonable time-sensitive demand notice.

GATA's Bill Murphy reported through John Brimelow yesterday that the Portuguese National Bank has now fully disclosed that they have 70% of their 600 tonnes of gold swapped or lent. This confirming example further strengthens the fact that the 16,000 tonnes number is quite valid.

The clear implications of this are that a massive coordinated effort to suppress the price of gold has been playing out over the last ten years or so.

Coupled with the accounting mischaracterization of gold loans and swaps is the disinformation provided by the World Gold Council. The WGC knew or should have known that ownership of these 16,000 tonnes had changed and no longer were the property of the respective central banks. The WGC none-the-less continues to report bogus gold deposits for the various countries. This misleads the gold-buying public into the false impression that there are still huge amounts of metal waiting for market release. Other "Journalist types" join the misinformation bandwagon and trumpet false gold loan numbers.

The central banks don't own the gold they say they own. The Bundesbank at least combines "gold and gold receivables" into their report.

The central banks have forever lost half their gold. How much the US is "Light" remains in question. THAT the US engaged in gold swaps is in the transcripts of the FOMC in plain English from Wayne Angel and Virgil Mattingly [Chief Counsel, Federal Reserve] beginning in 1991.

The natural conclusion from this revelation and the recent history of the gold price is that the cbs are trying conserve their remaining metal and the risk of a deep price correction is essentially nil. Moreover, a rise to a much higher price is actually badly needed by the central banks to halt today's required heavy [And getting heavier by the day as folks catch on to the scam] selling.

The fun is to gauge how high that price will be and when the desperate G-10 bankers will release it.

The war was a perfect cover but now that there may not BE a war, we are back to square one. The G-10 guys in $3,000 suits just might be forced to "Go Naked" and randomly pop the price without any plausible explanatory cover.

What a thought.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 09:48:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94598)

@ Zhisheng (01/16/03; 09:21:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 94596)

Is the translation by R. B. Blakely still in print? Do you know where I can buy a copy? I own several editions. They are all substantially different. Judging from the meaning of the stanza you provided, Blakely's seems to be truest to the text's original purpose. Thanks.

Calidor

(01/16/2003; 09:48:46 MDT - Msg ID: 94599)

North Korea

http://www.msnbc.com/news/859191.asp?0cv=CB21Snippet:

Satellite photos provided by DigitalGlobe confirm the existence of the camps, and interviews with those who have been there and with U.S. officials who study the North suggest Brownback's assessment may be conservative.
Among NBC News� findings:
At one camp, Camp 22 in Haengyong, some 50,000 prisoners toil each day in conditions that U.S. officials and former inmates say results in the death of 20 percent to 25 percent of the prison population every year.
Products made by prison laborers may wind up on U.S. store shelves, having been "washed" first through Chinese companies that serve as intermediaries.
Entire families, including grandchildren, are incarcerated for even the most bland political statements.
Forced abortions are carried out on pregnant women so that another generation of political dissidents will be "eradicated."
Inmates are used as human guinea pigs for testing biological and chemical agents, according to both former inmates and U.S. officials.
...........

"Listening to their stories, it's horrific," said David Hawk, a veteran human rights campaigner and a consultant for the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea. Hawk has interviewed many former prisoners in Seoul.
"It's hard to do more than one or two a day because they're just so painful to hear: horrific mistreatment - all sorts of suffering, beatings to death, executions."

Calidor - We've known about the camps for some time through the mainstream press but it was always below most people's radar. Clinton, Monica, hot IPOs, etc. As bad as reported conditions are, I wonder how much worse the treatment really is but that they can't adequately capture the misery and deprivation.

A couple of things about N Korea. They've got a BUNCH of tube artillery and lotsa rounds, both chemical & conventional. They're not going to have a wimpy prep but will soften up those targets with barriages lasting anywhere from hours to a day or two. Four million man army -that's a lot of targets in Rock's vernacular (Infantry speak). Before the hoard comes streaming across (or out of their tunnel Assembly Areas), we'll have several scud variants to worry about; Scud-C, No Dong, and Taepo Dong. Our soldiers found some pretty elaborate cave complexes in Afganistan so you might guess what you can do with a little slave labor. And I 'spect the five-division's worth of Special Ops are, to quote Maddie Albright, "areas of concern". Not to downplay US or South Korean forces and their effectiveness. But there's a LOT of NK's with AK-47's.

Oh, and check out Hipplebeck's link on America from N Korean Viewpoint. Scroll 2/3 the way down to the story The High Cost of Peace. If the story that Kim Il Sung gave Iran two nukes in 1991 is correct, you best believe that N Korea probably has one or two more around.

Trojan

(01/16/2003; 10:03:46 MDT - Msg ID: 94600)

@ sector Re: Your #94597 (16,000 Tons)

Could you please recheck the link. When I clicked on it I got the following:

The URL you requested does not exist, or is temporarily out of service.

Thank you

Trojan

(01/16/2003; 10:21:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94601)

The Venezuelan Situation

http://www.cbc.ca/cgi-bin/templates/view.cgi?category=Canada&story=/news/2003/01/16/venezuela030116Does anyone have a good handle on the Venezuelan issue ?

I just read the CBC article linked above.

Any thoughts or predictions on how this will end and when ?

After the February Referendum ?

Will the Referendum matter ?

Thanks for any input that you have to share.

The price of Oil keeps going Up and Up.

Rock

(01/16/2003; 10:36:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94602)

Re: Trojan

Your answer 3) sounds good at face value but in reality its not going to stand the acid test of time and I'll tell you why. The Iraq's are already in breach of UN resolutions which is why we're in there in the first place. Haven't we learned anything from 911? Isn't waiting for a smoking gun the very thing that brought down the trade centers? Think about it for a moment, looking back all the intelligence prior 911 and hindsight being 20/20 the FBI knew something Big was going to happen but ignored the "INTEL" until BOOM, it happened.

Now I'm all for doing it the UN way but if the inspectors are going to play this cat and mouse game for another year or longer we're jeopardizing the troops because meanwhile Saddam has time to strengthen his defenses and continue his devilish plans. Personally I hope he goes into exile and we can all go home and live happily ever after but I doubt that will happen. So far Bush has been doing it the UN way but as GW said, time is not on Saddam's side. So far you have to give GWB credit for going about this mess the right way, through UN.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 10:37:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94603)

gold

Someone please point out to me the error of my thinking here. The following is what seems to me to be true. POG has been making higher highs and higher lows for weeks. Selling has increased near the uppermost range. It has then consistently diminished and been replaced by strong buying. This has happened four times since gold first went above 340. I don't think this is consistent with manipulation. It is more consistent with a phenomenon characteristic of present tactics of market trading. Holders of physical gold do not typically buy and sell on an immediate basis whenever there is a change in the price of gold. They tend to hold on for a long time and then sell. But they are not the ones who determine what the price of gold is. The price is in reality determined by the traders on the floors of the commodity exchanges as a function of buy orders and sell orders transmitted to them by futures contracts speculators, through brokers who have them as customers. A significant number of these customers -when thought of in terms of large numbers of them- do buy and sell frequently and immediately on small changes in the indicators that they follow as individuals. Their action combines to form a trend, or a group habit of trading, which results in a pattern that can be seen in the way that POG behaves from hour to hour, when configured as a chart. Many of these commodity futures contracts speculators buy whenever they think POG is lower than it is going to be. And probably a smaller number of them sell short whenever they think that the POG is higher than it is going to be. A significant number of the long speculators sell immediately whenever gold has gone up, and a significant number of shorters sell short at around that same time. When this is done in terms of a sufficiently large number of contracts, it causes the price to move. Selling makes the thing go down. Buying makes it go up. If you look at the six month chart on gold, you can see that it doesn't merely go up all the way to the top from where ever it was while near some bottom, but it shoots up when selling has been exhausted, and then it stops when sellers perceive that there is a strong probability that a profit can be made by selling. Then it stops going up and starts wavering. At this point, selling and buying occur in a way the causes the POG to waver, going neither decidedly up, nor decidedly down. These individuals are not fighting. They are all merely doing what each one of them thinks is in his best financial interest. Right now we can see -barring unforeseen contingencies- that buyers have been repeatedly waiting for selling to diminish, then have been moving in and buying. The trend has been strong, because a lot of aware people know that gold looks very favorable. That's all. It is the ordinary, day-to-day trading habits of a significant proportion of contract traders wanting to make a quick profit that contritubtes to this manipulation-appearing pattern, not manipulators such as JPM Chase or the FED, though perhaps they could, and though they certainly possess the power to do so, and although they might contribute to the effects. The motivation for these frequent trades by individual futures contract speculators is due in significant part to the desires of these customers' brokers, who make no commissions unless buyers sell and sellers buy, and who do everything possible to encourage their customers to buy as often as they can, and to sell whenever they can make a profit. This results in the loss of a great deal of money, however, for the customers, though not for the brokers, since, when a speculator sells, the likelihood of his being out of the market at a time when greater profits could have been made if he had stayed in is increased, and because, often, it is necessary to buy back in after having sold, at a price that is higher than the one the customer sold at, meaning that, when the price goes beyond that, the customer has missed out on the difference. In addition to this, the customer has paid commissions and fees, both to sell, and to buy again, which substantially eats away at the amount in his account, and puts cash into the pockets of his broker. Smart contract speculators tend, therefore, to ignore their broker's advice, and also ignore intermediate moves in the POG and hold longer term contracts and not sell to make quick profits but, on dips, buy more, as appropriate. There are some who do make a lot of money trading frequently. This is not to be denied. But it is true that if they were to revise their tactic to that which is described here, they would make more. As concerns what gold is preparing to do next, here's an opinion. It's just an opinion. With higher highs and higher lows, four times, and with selling occurring actively each time after a small rise, with selling then diminishing and buyers coming in strongly, what else can happen but that POG will go up soon? The smart money is buying, not selling. You can be sure of this because it is the dumb money that is selling whenever there is the slightest reason, while the buyers are waiting patiently in the wings, biding their time, and their great gobs of beautiful green money, until the buyers have exhausted themselves, then they step in with force and the price jumps up. This means that the big money is with the buyers, not with the sellers. And it also means that the sellers are the small fish, not the big trout. Therefore it only makes sense to believe JPM is telling the truth when it says they have no liability in gold. They haven't been selling. They have been buying. The reason for this is they are not stupid. What difference does it make to them if their stock goes down? They know it will soon go back up again. And, in the meantime, if I worked for JPM, and owned JPM stock. I would buy more, not sell what I had. Well, this puts my thoughts on the line. If I'm wrong, I'm probably way wrong. But I think once you get past the ego part, the part that says, "Oh, it will be so embarassing for everyone to know that I'm wrong," the truth will eventually be got at. I didn't check this for grammar or spelling, since that doesn't seem to be the practice here.

Zhisheng

(01/16/2003; 10:41:02 MDT - Msg ID: 94604)

A Nation of One

Sorry about that: it should have been R. B. Blakney, not Blakely. If you run a search under Blakney in Amazon, you should find it under the title

The Way of Life
Lao Tzu

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 10:46:00 MDT - Msg ID: 94605)

...

Thanks.

silvercollector

(01/16/2003; 10:46:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94606)

Headline News...

...Hans Blix tells EU that the Iraq situation is 'very tense'.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 10:48:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94607)

tension

I thought tension was desired. If not, then the U.S. should stop poking them with its stick.

(01/16/2003; 10:54:27 MDT - Msg ID: 94608)

Re: Trojan #: 94600

Pardon me for butting in. From past experience, it's not meant to be a link. It's just a way to underline some text.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 10:57:12 MDT - Msg ID: 94609)

sorry...,

I wasn't intending to dominate the scenery.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 10:58:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94610)

I've had my say.

So now I'll have my lunch.

GratefulForGold

(01/16/2003; 11:06:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94611)

WAKE UP CALL - POG SPIKING!!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1A couple of minutes ahead of CNBC's report that empty chemical warheads found in Iraq. Hmmmm.

Zhisheng

(01/16/2003; 11:10:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94612)

This may be The Day!

Spot is $358.31 as I post.

Trojan

(01/16/2003; 11:12:12 MDT - Msg ID: 94613)

@ CM , Rock and a nation of one

Thank you, CM for pointing that out to me. I am relatively new to this Forum.

a nation of one, what you say is basically correct about the Gold Market Place BUT the Malipulation happened in great part in the past Re: Gold under $300. About JPM, that's the point. They are short probably so they now have to Buy, not sell.

Rock, you can be sure that the only reason GWB hasn't attacked yet is because his TRoops are NOT in place yet. As for Saddam being an immediate threat ? What has he threatened in the last 12 Years.

No Proven ties to Terrorism

Does anyone still Remember Bin Laden and Omar ?

Bush can't seem to catch him so let's focus on Saddam

Meanwhile BACK at the ranch, I saw at 1:00 PM EST Spot Gold at $355.50 and by the time I post this maybe $356 GO Gold... Buy JPM Buy ... Better now than at $400.

Only $10 Million Risk Sure :-)

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 11:12:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94614)

spot

Looks like I called this one correctly.

Trojan

(01/16/2003; 11:16:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94615)

Way To Go, a nation of one

Spot now $358.12 :-)

jlfletc

(01/16/2003; 11:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94616)

(No Subject)

"Skyrockets in flight, afternoon delight........afternoon delight"!

sector

(01/16/2003; 11:18:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94617)

@ Trojan The "Link" is only a statement. Check http://www.bis.org

@a nation of one Your aren't exactly wrong but..."The smart money is buying, not selling. You can be sure of this because it is the dumb money that is selling whenever there is the slightest reason, while the buyers are waiting patiently in the wings, biding their time, and their great gobs of beautiful green money, until the buyers have exhausted themselves, then they step in with force and the price jumps up."

There are THREE parties in precious metals trading. (1) The smart buyers (2) The dumb [Skittish] sellers and (3) The government. This three party trade is what wrecks the Elliott wave techies. Their whole thesis is based upon a two-party greed and fear premise. That doesn't work with PMs.

The .gov boys have a conflict of interest with the existence of a "Free" precious metals market since their paper is in competition with metal. They don't want gold or silver to "Go up" because if they do, then people will want metal instead of paper because the paper would be "Going down" and who would want that?

The ceiling maintenance pattern [Currently at $354] reflects the added selling of government to hold a defined price level [Or to perhaps give the impression that a specified level is being defended]. The higher lows show added buying to obtain gold on every pullback. This is classic currency defense pattern trading. It happens each time a country gets into trouble with their macro economy and sees their currency fall and intervenes to prop it up by buying their own currency with foreign exchange they had on hand.

The key here is to appreciate that there is rising volume within this tight trading range. The sellers have to sell more and more just to stay flat here at $354. This effort has a natural limit on the near time horizon. They run out of available gold or fall well below some pre-set gold selling level--their fall rate gets out of hand. They most certainly have a long-term plan that supports the paper and lets gold rise. It would be foolish to spend all their gold at this low price.

The clear picture is one of central bank selling to hold gold down as the only meaningful force acting downward on the market today. The savvy buyers are all-too-content to wait and suck the cb vaults dry at these absurdly low prices. But wait...

There are more and more buyers coming to the golden window to draw their share so thus the higher lows, higher volumes and the vault drainage increases and soon the gold-selling cartel retreats and falls back to another level.

Maybe that level is $400�but for how long?

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 11:18:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94618)

trojan

I don't see how JPM can be short now. For one thing, they have publicly stated that they are not short, that they have no liability in gold. Second, if they wanted POG to go down, it would go down. Third, it makes no sense to throw good money after bad. Having once sold tons of contracts short, at some point they would have to stop. If they wanted POG to fall, they would be able to make it fall a lot. But it hasn't. Therefore, that's not their intention. Think about this a little. If you or I had billions of dollars, would we do what JPM is being accused of? I don't think so. Myself, I would never have gotten started doing it. And but now, if I had, I would have gotten out. I just don't believe that the several dozen people at JPM who are involved in these things know less than I do.

mikal

(01/16/2003; 11:18:28 MDT - Msg ID: 94619)

@Rock

Your posts smell from one end to the other.

CoBra(too)

(01/16/2003; 11:18:59 MDT - Msg ID: 94620)

Spot - Looks like a Triple Spike into the Close!

Won't be the greatest of nights for some of the SHORTS at tomorrows expiration.

My sympathy is kind'a subdued, though! cb2

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 11:25:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94621)

the elliots

What wrecks the elliot wavers is that their theory is simply wrong. It doesn't work. It never did. You can be sure of this by the fact that whenever it doesn't jibe with reality, the elioteers invent extremely complicated reasons why not. It is like the ancient astronomers who believe the earth was the center of the universe: their explanations for why the planets moved backwards and forward became ridiculously complex. Then Copernicus explained that the the planets orbit the sun. After that, everything was simple again. The ellioteers are rowing a boat that sunk the moment it was launched, and they haven't got the sense to realize they are just sitting on the bottom. "Why isn't the shore moving," someone asks, as they paddle ignorantly along. "Why it's because everything is in harmony with our boat," they reply.

timbervision

(01/16/2003; 11:25:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94622)

Rock

You said: "Haven't we learned anything from 911? Isn't waiting for a smoking gun the very thing that brought down the trade centers?"

I don't see how you can conclude that "waiting for the smoking gun" was what brought down the Trade Centers. There has never been a mainstream media investigation into 911. From what I have seen so far, 911 didn't occur because the FBI "ignored" warning signs, rather, it was a well orchestrated event, a high level conspiracy, from within an American power base. Until we have real answers to 911, nothing coming from the Bush administration can be evaluated properly, or believed.

Mr Gresham

(01/16/2003; 11:28:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94623)

Amen, GfG!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDOhttp://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDOWe got us a gusher!

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 11:30:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94624)

CNN report Iraq chemical weapon shells found

Empty chemical weapons shells found-breaking now

Zhisheng

(01/16/2003; 11:31:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94625)

$356.50 has been broken.

Let the risk avoidance buy programs roll!

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 11:32:40 MDT - Msg ID: 94626)

the gubmint

The notion that the Federal government is manipulating the POG is ludicrous. At least it seems so to me. At first, when I started reading that they are, I thought, "how interesting. That explains everything." But reality doesn't seem to be in agreement with this. Only an idiot would keep selling and selling into a rising market. Even our government isn't that stupid. Or I hope not. But instead of merely spouting plausible explanations, let's see some real evidence. That's what is lacking. There is no authentic evidence for such rumors. It all consists of supposition. And while suppositions can sometimes be true, usually they are not, and when they are, they are typically accompanied by real facts tending to corroborate them. Let's see some of those facts, other than merely the mysterious gyrations of somebody's scribblings onto charts.

Zhisheng

(01/16/2003; 11:35:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94627)

Dollar.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=sLooks like it may be that the Dollar Index 101 support level has been breeched too.

Mr Gresham

(01/16/2003; 11:37:01 MDT - Msg ID: 94628)

Dollar's fallen and can't get up

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0Headed for 100?

Should we start looking for Another's 360 return?

It would be an interesting note upon our development as observers to see what level of new observations A/FOA would bring to us now, and to what extent the gold community has done its homework and has attained many of the levels described almost alone by those two in former years. To be confirmed, of course, only in central bankers' memoirs 20 years from now. Meanwhile, POG tells much, if not all...

Trojan

(01/16/2003; 11:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94629)

@ a nation of one

Have you been to the GATA Site ?
Have you Read Gibson's Paradox ?
Have you read the Howe Report ?

Lot's of HARD FACTS there if you care to read them.

See GATA's Posts late last night for links.

Current data
Latest�price�357.85�Last�update�18:32�16/01�Change�since�last�close�+7.10 (+2.02%)�
�BidOfferPrice357.25�358.15�Time18:32�18:32�Volume--
�
Company data
Sector�-Local�ID�-Currency�US Dollar�Security�type�Index�Sector�-
�16/01�15/01�Today's�open350.55�351.40�Today's�high359.01�353.50�Today's�low350.40�350.52�Spot rate--Latest�price357.85�350.75�Change�since�last�close+7.10 (+2.02%)�-0.60 (-0.17%)

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS :-)

Hipplebeck

(01/16/2003; 11:38:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94630)

Zhisheng

Thank you for the alternate ways of understanding Lao Tzu and the clarification of the era.
He is one of my heroes.
I wish I could read in the wen yen wen.

Zhisheng

(01/16/2003; 11:43:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94631)

a nation of one

Sorry again: should be been "breach", not "breech" (#94627). You're right about the price of gold, and that I should use a spell checker.

But I dare say you over-estimate the Government.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 11:45:37 MDT - Msg ID: 94632)

ockham's razor

"The key here is to appreciate that there is rising volume within this tight trading range. The sellers have to sell more and more just to stay flat here at $354. This effort has a natural limit on the near time horizon. They run out of available gold or fall well below some pre-set gold selling level--their fall rate gets out of hand. They most certainly have a long-term plan that supports the paper and lets gold rise. It would be foolish to spend all their gold at this low price."

--This more difficult than it needs to be. There is a scientific principle that can be applied. It is called 'Ockham's Razor.' It is a substantially reliable indicator of when something is real. In Latin: "pluralites non est ponenda sine necessitate." A translation: "multiplicity ought not to be posited without necessity." In other words, one need not be complicated in one's thinking. An extraplolation of this would be, "If one's thought are exceedingly complicated, they probably are not true." If we cannot deliberately apply well-known scientific principles to our everyday thought and actions we are not very far along in our development.

Zhisheng

(01/16/2003; 11:47:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94633)

@Hipplebeck (#94630)

Me too!

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 11:48:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94634)

reflection

Zhisheng, I am wrong a lot. But not always. For instance, I am presently very heavily invested in gold.

Hipplebeck

(01/16/2003; 11:52:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94635)

Empty warheads.

The ammo dump guards were probably using them for ashtrays.
This isn't the trigger, but it's coming.
Can you feel the tension?

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 11:52:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94636)

Warheads in excellent condition

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=EC3OCTSUHU0HGCRBAEOCFEY?type=topNews&storyID=2058619BAGHDAD (Reuters) - U.N. weapons inspectors in Iraq on Thursday found empty warheads designed to carry chemical warfare agents, a U.N. spokesman said in Baghdad.

It was not immediately clear whether the warheads had ever contained banned chemicals and samples were taken for testing.

The United States, which is massing forces in the Gulf, has made clear it is ready to invade if the inspectors find Iraq has lied in assuring the United Nations that it no longer possesses chemical, biological or nuclear weaponry.

U.N. spokesman Hiro Ueki did not expand on the significance of the find during an inspection of the Ukhaider Ammunition Storage Area, which lies 120 km (75 miles) south of Baghdad.

"During the course of their inspection, the team discovered 11 empty 122 mm chemical warheads and one warhead that requires further evaluation," he said in a statement. The team had gone there to view a large group of bunkers built in the late 1990s.

"The warheads were in excellent condition and were similar to ones imported by Iraq during the late 1980s. The team used portable X-ray equipment to conduct preliminary analysis of one of the warheads and collected samples for chemical testing."

There was no immediate comment from Iraqi officials.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 11:53:34 MDT - Msg ID: 94637)

@ Trojan (01/16/03; 11:37:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 94629)

Yes, I have been to the GATA site. But the fact that a lawsuit is filed is not evidence of wrongdoing.

I have read Gibson's Paradox and posted an item on this forum detailing why it cannot be correct.

I have not read the Howe Report. I will put that on my schedule to begin this evening.

With regard to your "YESSSSSSSSSSS!" I agree.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 11:59:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94638)

gub mint agin

How could it be more clearly manifested that the government is not significantly manipulating the price of gold, than that they have all those hundreds of billions of somebody else's dollars and still haven't been able to make gold stay below 350?

Knallgold

(01/16/2003; 12:00:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94639)

POG almost at 360

Do I hear the steps of FOA coming back??

Hipplebeck

(01/16/2003; 12:00:52 MDT - Msg ID: 94640)

If I was Saddam

and they were pressuring me for these things that are unaccounted for from the last inspections (like warheads), I would slip them into existing stocks here and there so they could be found. Then they could be accounted for.
This ammo dump is one that has been searched twice before.

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 12:04:45 MDT - Msg ID: 94641)

Wall Street upgrading Gold

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?guid=%7BB2E651F6-C85F-4A3A-B76F-FEA9D3B78704%7D&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahooSAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- How important is Wall Street's fresh round of upgrades for the gold industry?

To many longtime gold investors, Wall Street's embracing of the metal, which in 2002 rose about $66 an ounce, or 24 percent, is par for the course: a sign that sales-driven analysts are late to the profits in any market rally.

Still, even the most cynical of observers acknowledges the importance of professional support for a metal that Main Street investors mostly shunned during the most recent boom years.

This week, Wall Street and London banks upgraded their gold price forecasts and their ratings on several mining stocks. All see higher prices for the metal, which is attempting to surpass $360 an ounce for the first time since early 1997. See: Gold gets respect on Wall Street.

"These reports are good trend indicators, but they are lagging indicators -- not coincidental ones," says James Turk, editor of Freemarket Gold and Money Report. "It indicates that the trend is well enough established for them to consider changing their estimates."

Sierra Madre

(01/16/2003; 12:08:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94642)

North Korean atrocities...

What NBC reports might be true, but then again, it MIGHT NOT.

Reporting on the "atrocities" of the enemy is standard psy-war procedure for manipulating public opinion. Did NBC tell the truth about the recent stock market bubble in process? No. They are "official spokesmen" and they will report what they are told to report. I do believe that!

Before and during WWI, the American people were told that German soldiers had cheerfully impaled Belgian babies on their bayonets. All lies, as later disclosed. We never learn to distrust, we believe what we see on the TV and read in the papers. Such is life.

A grain of salt is in order, with regard to N Korea. At least for thinking humans.

Sierra

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 12:09:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94643)

CNN now reporting warheads not in initial report

Warheads that were found were NOT accounted for
in the initial weapons report. Developing...

Hipplebeck

(01/16/2003; 12:09:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94644)

JPM

maybe they were short gold, but being in the derivatives business, they just hedged it all, and began taking the long side. With unlimited credit, you can probably turn on a dime.

Trojan

(01/16/2003; 12:12:19 MDT - Msg ID: 94645)

@ a nation of one, Hipplebeck and Breaking NEW News

Once the Truth starts getting out and the Chinese, Japanese, Malaysia, India and others KNOW.

It doesn't matter. The US Dollar is below 101 Spot and the US Government exactly as your point was WILL NOT Short Gold or sell it when they KNOW it is going Over $400 +

Hipplebeck, Thanks for the laugh Re: Ashtrays.

Late Breaking News:

12 War Heads found NOT on Iraq's Declaration List.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 12:12:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94646)

Rock

Your idea might be right. But if it is, it would be safer not to state it publicly.
As for how your posts smell, well they are far enough away not to be offensive. And even dogs, you know, understand that a smell can't hurt anyone.

Sierra Madre

(01/16/2003; 12:18:27 MDT - Msg ID: 94647)

@A nation of one, re post #94603

Another famous saying of Ockham's was

"Parafus longus dubitandum est".

This translates: "long paragraphs are a sign of muddled thinking."

Buy gold, at any price.

Sierra

Hipplebeck

(01/16/2003; 12:19:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94648)

Trojan- Venezuela

http://www.vheadline.com/main.aspI try to understand the news by looking at both sides. Since I am inundated constantly by the US media viewpoint of things, I seek out the opposite viewpoint so I can try to understand their side too. The above site is pro Chavez.
another pro Chavez place for Venezuela news is narconews.com

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 12:33:01 MDT - Msg ID: 94649)

Spot nat gas at 22 month peak

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030116/markets_natgas_spot_1.htmlEIA storage data released Thursday showed U.S. gas stocks
fell last week by 136 bcf, well above Reuters survey estimates
for a 105-110 bcf draw and the five-year average decline for
this week of 119 bcf but below the year-ago drop of 142 bcf.
The report showed total U.S. gas stocks stood at 2.195 tcf,
widening the deficit to last year to 453 bcf, or 17 percent,
and to 18 bcf below the five year average.
Eastern stocks dropped 85 bcf last week and were 18 percent
below last year. Consuming Region West storage, which lost 13
bcf for the week, was 4 percent below year-ago levels.
Inventories in the producing region tumbled 38 bcf and stood 22
percent below 2001 levels.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 12:37:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94650)

@ you know who

Yeah, well brevity is the mark, Sierra, not of wisdom, but of wit.

davefinger

(01/16/2003; 12:43:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94651)

The Razor

I thought the Latin version was quite different, and so looked it up on Google. This came as a surprise:

"I wonder how a mid-fourteenth-century Franciscan monk would have felt if he had known that late-twentieth-century magazine readers would vote to give him some aftershave as a Christmas present.

Last Christmas, New Scientist readers came up with suggestions for gifts to famous individuals. Some rubber ducks for Archimedes. A set of dice for Einstein. Protective headgear and a cider press for Newton. The address of a good patent lawyer for Leonardo da Vinci. A cat flap for Schrodinger. A bigger notebook for Fermat.

The aftershave, as you may have guessed, was for William of Occam. The village of Occam, where he was born, was in the southern English county of Surrey; it still is-only a mile or two off the orbital freeway that rings London.

If you come across his name these days, it's likely to be as part of the term Occam's Razor: "Entities should not be multiplied without necessity." To persuade you of its authenticity, the statement often drags in tow the original Latin formulation: "Entia non sunt multiplicanda sine necessitate." But if you bump into it again, you might find it presented as "Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem." Yes, you spotted the catch-how can there be two different authentic versions? In fact, there are not two. There isn't even one. The statement appears nowhere among his extant writings, even though he would probably have agreed with the gist of it.

It was not new. Robert Grosseteste, a chancellor of William's own university (Oxford) had written: "That is better and more valuable which requires fewer, other circumstance being equal; which necessitates the answering of a smaller number of questions for a perfect demonstration.... As Aristotle says in Book V of the Physics, "Nature operates in the shortest way possible." And the Franciscans in general leaned heavily on the principle."

---

There's more, but that's the drift...

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 12:45:09 MDT - Msg ID: 94652)

"In war, truth is the first casualty"-Churchill

One of my favs-
Its not a question of believing what a guv says-
propaganda reveals intentions.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 12:47:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94653)

@ @

Sierra, if my thinking is muddled, you would do me and everyone else a favor by showing specifically in what ways it is muddled. I began my long paragraph with that request.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 12:54:00 MDT - Msg ID: 94654)

Ockham

Davefinger, thanks. Often, the man who states a principle clearly and with the greatest conciseness gets the credit for it. At least until someone else comes along whose language is more modern.

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 12:56:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94655)

CRB up again

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CRY0&v=d12Nat Gas up another 4%+

sector

(01/16/2003; 13:07:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94656)

@ a nation of one "How could it be more clearly manifested that the government is not significantly manipulating the price of gold, than that they have all those hundreds of billions of somebody else's dollars and still haven't been able to make gold stay below 350?"

The Simplest answer to this logical question is......that the government needs more than just paper money to keep gold below $350.

The crucial thing to appreciate is that the government needs gold to drop the price of gold. They cannot simply take paper money and sell gold downward.

In order to establish a gold derivative in the first instance, one must necessarily have an original source of real metal from a specified inventory of bullion from which the bad guys "Borrow". Then and only then can the metal be sold into the COMEX LBMA or TOCOM etc.. This selling causes the price to fall unless there is a countervailing buyer group with similar financial committment.

The fact that they are running short of real metal is the reason that gold is rising. More and more buyers are attracted of course, but the cessation of central bank selling is the driver upwards.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 13:15:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94657)

action

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=5&t=c&a=2
What we saw today was that sellers exhausted their intentions. The smart speculators waited until the moving averaqe turned up, then they bought. When POG responded by going higher, was followed by selling but did not decline significantly, that was a strong upward indicator, then the moving average quickly continued up, and then additional buying occurred, selling then followed, POG did not decline significantly, so additional buying was done, and POG went up further, and that is where we are now. Tomorrow, if selling occurs and POG doesn't go down significantly, additional buying will be done. It may be that since significant selling did occur during previous substantial gains, it may now be more greatly exhausted and, if so, substantial selling won't occur this time. If so, POG will go up unimpeded.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 13:18:07 MDT - Msg ID: 94658)

@ Sector, with all due respect

...that the government needs more than just paper money to keep gold below $350.

They don't even need paper money. They could do it just with paper contracts.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 13:24:37 MDT - Msg ID: 94659)

my limited understanding

The price of gold is not determined by central banks, except in the transactions in which they individually engage, and even these prices are profoundly influenced by the going rate current on open markets. Fewer than one percent of the physical gold referred to in the total of all futures contracts is ever delivered. That is what constitutes the open market. That should mean that it is the paper contracts, not the physical gold itself, that has the greatest influence in establishing the price. Please prove that I am wrong about this.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 13:31:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94660)

@ Sector

"...The fact that they are running short of real metal is the reason that gold is rising. More and more buyers are attracted of course, but the cessation of central bank selling is the driver upwards."

--Ninety nine percent of the current gold market has nothing to do with physical gold but is based on paper contracts. Therefore, 99% of the current perception of gold's value is not availability or lack of availability but the public's perception of how valuable gold is. This is not based on availability but on the relationship between the available currency and the notion concerning gold's value. Gold's price is most forcefully determined in U.S. markets. Since the price of gold in U.S. markets is based mostly on paper contracts, it is the paper contracts that most influence the price of gold.

Trojan

(01/16/2003; 13:31:45 MDT - Msg ID: 94661)

@ a nation of one

The US and the FEED might NOT want the POG to stay down anymore.

After Greenspan's last public speech in which he started it off by talking about Gold. There were several very Knowledgeable Gold Experts like Sinclair and others that suggested that.

You could read some of those Articles if you are interested. If you are, let me know and I'll find a link or two for you. Or perhaps someone knows of a link now Re: The Gold Cover Clause Scenario

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 13:42:45 MDT - Msg ID: 94662)

Trojan

I think that's backwards. The FED, and also the federal government, realize that gold is simply going to be recognized by everyone as being worth more dollars than it is now, and that, given this probability, it makes no sense to do anything to lower it. I am not that impressed by Jim Sinclair. He is good at what he does, but what he does is being outmoded.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 13:47:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94663)

moreover,

Greenspan is not particularly knowledgeable. He has an agenda and follows it. Other dynamics which are involved he is unaware of. His verbal expressions are very skillful stated, but, unfortunately, their content is lacking.

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 13:50:55 MDT - Msg ID: 94664)

UN inspectors find something?

http://www.canada.com/news/story.asp?id=8CC94D83-2C36-4953-B434-3721131DB776BAGHDAD (AP) - An Iraqi scientist left his home Thursday with UN experts and accompanied them to a field outside Baghdad where together they inspected what appeared to be a man-made mound in the earth.

The events - unprecedented since inspectors in Iraq resumed their search for banned nuclear, chemical and biological weapons in November - came after the UN experts, going through documents outside the scientist's house, appeared to have a heated discussion with Iraqi liaison officials. "I'm not happy about all of this," Dimitri Perricos, a team leader among the UN experts, could be heard telling the Iraqis as he got into a vehicle with the scientist - physicist Faleh Hassan, who carried a box stuffed with documents - and an Iraqi official.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 13:54:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94665)

???

How did he get that Iraqi official into the box, if it was already stuffed with documents?

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 14:04:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94666)

Small official?

Or maybe a large box? lol

Sierra Madre

(01/16/2003; 14:08:12 MDT - Msg ID: 94667)

Sector: you wrote

"In order to establish a gold derivative in the first instance, one must necessarily have an original source of real metal from a specified inventory of bullion from which the bad guys "Borrow". Then and only then can the metal be sold into the COMEX LBMA or TOCOM etc.. This selling causes the price to fall unless there is a countervailing buyer group with similar financial committment."

Hmmm...just a minute, please.

I think you have made a mistake here.

What about the massive short positions in the Comex silver contracts, which so upset Theodore Butler? He has been hammering on this subject for years, to no avail: the massive shorts are only a handful, yet they are short over a year of known silver production; here I may have the figures wrong - but the bottom line, is that these shorts can BY NO MEANS have the silver to sell, which they are shorting aggresively. Butler says what is going on is illegal, but the supervising entities turn a blind eye - it figures.

So what will destroy these shorts, like the gold shorts, up to and including the U.S. government, is PEOPLE TAKING PHYSICAL POSSESSION OF THEIR METAL, and not relying on simple trading, which (almost) invariably produces losses for the longs, as the shorts have deep (green dollar) pockets with which they can short. However, if people all over the world are taking their gold home and off the market, that cannot be countered by masses of paper dollars.

Buy gold and take possession is the nemesis of the gold manipulators. And - it's happening!! That's what is raising the price.

That's the way I see it, anyway.

Sierra

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 14:22:48 MDT - Msg ID: 94668)

@ Sierra

I think you are right about this. To short a contract of gold (100 ounce or 1,000 ounces, depending on the contract), all one has to do is plunk down the margin ($1,350 or $13,500 (I think that's right.)). You agreed to deliver the gold or pay the difference. Then, if POG goes up, you pay the other party the difference. Say, if you contracted at 500 and it went to 550, you would pay the other party 50 times 100 ($5,000), or times 1,000 ($50,000). In the meantime though you would have the potential benefit of the entire worth of the contract, 100 ounces or 1,000 ounces of gold, and if gold went up, you would benefit. It's a bet. People do it for sport. If you have ten million to fool around with, in addition to the couple of hundred million net which you are actually worth, then a couple of hundred contracts would be nothing. And fifty thousand would be no more than the cost of your fun.
Plus, it could be deductable under some circumstances. It could be a business expense, if your business is gold. You only lose big if the other party to the contract demands that you deliver the gold, because then he would send you the money that he originally agreed to pay for the gold, and you would have to send him the actual gold. That could get expensive. 100 ounces at $500 would be $50,000, whereas the loss due to mere speculation (if he doesn't demand the gold) was only $1,300, plus the difference ($5,000, if it went to $550). But if you did 1,000 ounces, then the gold would cost $500,000, and you would also lose the original $13,500 which the contract cost you. This would be more significant. And if you had a couple of dozen 1,000 ounce contracts sold short and had to buy all those dozens of thousands of ounces of beautiful gold, your wife would probably yell. And once burned, twice shy. Next time you'd be more careful. Might not sell short any more. Gold would go up.

Calidor

(01/16/2003; 14:23:00 MDT - Msg ID: 94669)

North Korean atrocities...

...... Oh great! Just when I thought SH had a lock on Humanitarian of the Year, Kim Jong Il throws his hat into the ring.

Seriously though Sierra, this was reported back in '98-'99 but hey, Clinton thought he could send a ten thousand tons of grain and everything would be copasetic. And because I don't have "eyes on" to report first hand, I can't verify a thing. But if I hear it from enough independent sources (and over time), I begin to give some credence to the story.

Did NBC time the story to generate readership or increase viewers? Wouldn't surprise me one bit.

"Did NBC tell the truth about the recent stock market bubble in process?" No. Agreed. But I don't see the relationship between spinning the lousy SM (or tell the truth and dump on your advertisers and parent company) and lying about a dictator who has chemical weapons and most likely has a nuclear capability. Why would the govt want to piss this guy off any more than he is? It's not like we're set up for 2 MRCs anyway.

People who have never been in the military need to realize that MOST soldiers (sailors, airmen, and marines) aren't particularly fond of warfare. Service members usually have spouses, families, parents, and/or siblings so they're in no rush to wind up on the business end of the enemy's weapon.

If the N Korean labor camps turn out to be a ruse perpetrated by the US government, then I'll owe you an apology. But until that time .......

More gold please !

silvergolong

(01/16/2003; 14:25:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94670)

Iraq and North Korea

http://www.dieoff.orgBoy isn't it funny how NK and Iraq are all over the news-- and all over this message board.

I tend to view the situation within the borders of North Korea and Iraq as a "preview of coming attractions" for the rest of the world. North Korea has no oil or sources of energy, is desperately poor, and must rely on human slave labor. Iraq has vast oil reserves but can't monetize them effectively thanks to sanctions brought down on a reckless, ruthless, self-centered dictator.

When the planet's accessible oil supplies start to run out, we're gonna be just like these two countries--not enough oil above ground, and whatever oil is left in the ground will require so much energy to extract that it won't be worth it given the demands on the above-ground stocks to feed and heat the population.

Obsessing about Kim Jong Il and Saddam Hussein will only guarantee that the rest of the world will eventually be run according to their example. We need to start putting our own house in order, and we don't have much time left to do it.

2 Corinthians 6
17 Wherefore come out from among them, and be ye separate, saith the Lord, and touch not the unclean thing; and I will receive you.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 14:26:37 MDT - Msg ID: 94671)

mistakes, mistakes

My figures are not exactly correct? This is because, rather than try and be really correct, I decided to try and fit in with the way everybody else does things. Though less correct, it's easier, and more popular too.

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 14:41:45 MDT - Msg ID: 94674)

Nuke shutdown

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/nation/wire/sns-ap-nuclear-plant-fire0116jan16,0,3862099.story Nuke Plant Fire Leads to Reactor Shutdown
By Associated Press

January 16, 2003, 3:12 PM EST

BRIDGMAN, Mich. -- A transformer fire at a nuclear plant injured a security officer and led to the automatic shutdown of one of the plant's two reactors.

The fire Wednesday night at the Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant in southwest Michigan also resulted in a brief activation of the site's emergency plan, the plant's owner, American Electric Power Co., said in a news release.

A security officer was treated for smoke inhalation.
The transformer, which is outdoors and adjacent to the plant, is used to increase the voltage of the plant's generator for more efficient long-distance transmission of electricity.

When the transformer failed, the plant's operating system automatically shut down the Unit 1 reactor, which was operating at full power. All safety systems responded appropriately, and the reactor was not damaged, AEP said.

The plant's fire brigade extinguished the fire in 35 minutes, and the plant notified the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and state and local emergency-response agencies, AEP said.

The fire's cause remained under investigation.
____________
In UK protesters invade nuke plant and several other stories
about nuke plants in Eastern Europe. UK finds Nuke company
dumped waste in north sea. This will increase demand for
use of oil and gas just when prices are high.

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 15:01:07 MDT - Msg ID: 94675)

Russia to build Nuclear Plant for Syria

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1042490827214Russia is in negotiations to build a nuclear power plant in Syria, risking damage to its tighter relationship forged with the west in recent months and triggering fresh concerns over the spread of nuclear weapons.

Moscow's ministry of atomic energy (Minatom) confirmed the discussions yesterday. It said Syria wanted the project and that Russia "in principle" could supply it, while stressing that an agreement was "not ready".

The development is likely to be a fresh source of irritation to the US. Washington has long been a critic of Russia's contract to build the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, which Russia is seeking to expand, as well as Russian agreements to build reactors in other countries. Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control in Washington, said: "This is a relationship breaker between the US and Russia."

In an unclassified report released this month the US Central Intelligence Agency mentioned the existence of a "draft co-operative programme" between Russia and Syria on civil nuclear power. "In principle, broader access to Russian expertise provides opportunities for Syria to expand its indigenous capabilities, should it decide to pursue nuclear weapons," it said.

The details emerged after a day of confusion following a statement on the foreign ministry website that an agreement had been drafted under which Russia would build a nuclear power plant and an atomic desalination plant in Syria.

The ministry later removed the statement, issued to coincide with a two-day visit to Moscow by Abdel-Khalim Khaddam, the Syrian vice-president. Russia's President Vladimir Putin said yesterday that military-technical co-operation was a key element in the two countries' relations.
_______________
This will add to instabilty in the ME for sure.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/16/2003; 15:04:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94676)

Gold is rising. Why gold? Why now? (Discover where and how to add gold to your portfolio...)

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

Christian

(01/16/2003; 15:19:14 MDT - Msg ID: 94677)

To seize private property for public consumption

The underlying manipulation affecting gold today is the yen interest rate. Yen interest rates are lower than gold lease rates. Japan is exporting its exporting industry to China, and the yen interest rate in China is a negative 4% + or -. It works as long as it is done on productive money making enterprises. Japan is an aging country, and have found a way to move nonproductive money losing USA assets into China. Japan lost an average of 11% on their holdings in the USA for the last two years. By helping Japanese companies get established in China with negative interest loans they make possible for future profits. Truth is they made 27% profit gain in two years on operations in China. Money goes were the possibility of profits are. The USA is sitting 25,000 tonnes of off balance sheet gold debt. LTCM went under with 400 tonnes, Enron went down with 103 tonnes, Kmart lost it with 72 tonnes. 30,000 tonnes of off balance sheet credit creation gold is traded on the OTC every year where no one knows what the he_l is going on. In every gold rally we had lately the gold shorters have increased their gold short position in order to sell physical gold into the market. There is no way to cover without entering the physical market and drive the very price up. It is only a matter of time all bank loans have to be called in. Everybody is going to get a notice that your loan due date has changed and the principal is due now. Banks are going to forclose on your property to bail themselves out of their gold short positions with your property in exchange for gold owed. The properties will then be sold at auctions to the highest bidder that have the new Euro based dollars. Everything is ready except the conditions for this to happen must be like it was in the darkest hour of the 30's. The Japanese have enough money to buy all the gold twice over and if they didn't they know where to get it. -- What realy supprises me is the Middle East has borrowed a lot of yen's and now have a large cash stash to buy gold with an interest cost of less then 1 %. I wish I could do that. I would be in heaven. If I went to the bank here to borrow money to buy gold, I may end up in prison. I went to a bank yesterday and asked if it was possible and I was shoved out the door. I was even told that they don't want my checking account there. Can't even borrow fiat to buy real money.

Rock

(01/16/2003; 15:59:22 MDT - Msg ID: 94678)

Re: timbervision

You said, ". From what I have seen so far, 911 didn't occur because the FBI "ignored" warning signs, rather, it was a well orchestrated event, a high level conspiracy, from within an American power base."

Here's my take on it, yes it was a well orchestrated event but the FBI was advised that Arabic students had enrolled in American flight schools and it was thought they were training to crash passenger jets into the WTC. There was an actual reliable tip to the FBI that there was a plan to fly jumbo jets into the WTC.

Had I been running the FBI when I got the news that there were suspicious foreigners in American flight schools for the purpose of suicide missions I would have done a thorough back ground check on all the students and weeded out the illegal aliens first and foremost. But as you know all that wasn't done until after 911.

admin

(01/16/2003; 16:01:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94679)

Stick to the Subject. . .

Let's stay on subject. This is a gold & economics forum. We're getting complaints.

admin

(01/16/2003; 16:05:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94680)

On subject

It's OK to talk about Iraq and North Korea, for example, but let's try to keep it within the context of the economy and gold.

GoldnSilver2002

(01/16/2003; 16:23:09 MDT - Msg ID: 94681)

Gata and jim sinclair

Since we are goldbugs,whatever Gata and Jim sinclair say is ok with me.Why?Because we all want the same thing,gold to go up to its real value.Of course Jim Sinclair,much like others' such as the u.s media have influence over P.O.G.Gata does provide plenty of proof for anyone with a masters degree in economics and banking.Mr Sinclair may know basically what is happening in Gold,but even if he knew when gold would spike,he wouldnt tell.As for Gata,i wish them luck but i have come to realize why north america doesnt pick up on the gold story,north americans dont know what truth is anymore anyway.Now the question really becomes,will there be a short squeeze and when?The feast is here boys 'sharpen your knives.The pig is cooked'someone stick a golden knife in it and make sure its done all the way through!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/16/2003; 16:23:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94682)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. I've noticed that USAGOLD / Centennial stresses education more than most of your competitors. Why is that?

MK. For years, we have emphasized "We educate first-time investors" in our advertising. We believe education to be the key to successful gold ownership. To make a long story short, we tend to keep our clientele as they become better educated, while many of our competitors tend to lose their clientele once they become educated. It shows in the type of services we consider important to complement our sales and delivery programs.

Randy interjects... Mike is way too nice to say this bluntly so I will. What I've noticed about the apparent rationale behind some of those other firms' operating philosophy is that, if they bend the client over far enough the first time, they really don't have to care about getting repeat business. Crude, yes, but there it is. It doesn't have to be that way, but some people simply don't take the time to shop around for a quality firm. They should.

Q. What are some of the criteria a prospective investor should look for in a gold firm?

MK. Credibility, longevity, pricing, service and compatibility -- all come into the mix. Of those I rate credibility and its sister virtues -- reliability and reputability -- the most important. Too many of the national firms have brokers who were selling condos at the beach or automobiles a month ago and now suddenly they've become "gold experts" selling leverage schemes, $50,000 rare coins, reproduction medallions at 25 times their gold content, or overpriced silver investments. Most sophisticated gold investors would probably like to avoid that sort of thing.

Gandalf the White

(01/16/2003; 16:47:59 MDT - Msg ID: 94683)

WOWSERS !!! I need to know what SOMEONE fed SPIKE ?

Here I go out to take care of a small ORC problemo and when I return I find that SPIKE and SPOT went WILD just before 1:00 NY time ! WHO fed SPIKE and WHAT did you feed him ?
BTW .... THANKS !!!
<;-)

Trojan

(01/16/2003; 16:53:09 MDT - Msg ID: 94684)

On The Menu For SPIKE and SPOT Was...

11 Empty Warheads, Compliments of Saddam.
SPOT loved it... :-)

R Powell

(01/16/2003; 17:14:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94685)

Playing the game with no backup

In (94656) Sector wrote...

"In order to establish a gold derivative in the first instance, one must necessarily have an original source of real metal from a specified inventory of bullion from which the bad guys "Borrow". Then and only then can the metal be sold into the COMEX LBMA or TOCOM etc.. This selling causes the price to fall unless there is a countervailing buyer group with similar financial committment."

This is not always the case. If a miner wants to "lock-in" a set price for future production he/she can sell a futures' contract. This is done to raise needed cash or if the mine management believe the metals' price will be lower at that future time. If a jewelry manufacturer wants to hedge the cost of physical metal bought and held on premises, they can sell futures. The danger is that if the price falls so that their competitor can buy metal at a lower price, then that competitor will then be able to sell a finished product for less. By hedging (selling the futures), the higher initial cost of metal is recovered.
Example: Starbucks buys 1000 tonnes of coffee at $1.00/pound and sells 1000 tonnes in futures at 1.00/pound.
Coffee prices fall to $0.50/pound.
Duncan Donuts buys 1000 tonnes at $0.50/pound and threatens to sell coffee cheaper than Starbucks.
Starbucks now buys back 1000 tonnes of coffee at the lower price of $0.50/pound. Sold at $1.00...bought back at $0.50 for a $0.50 profit which, when applied toward that $1.00/pound price, lowers their 1000 ton coffee purchase price to $0.50 or exactly the same as Duncan Donut paid! This is commercial hedging.
BUT

It is not always hedging that buys or sells in the market. There is an awful lot of speculative money that both buys and sells all commodities. They buy what they do not want and sell what they do not have! Gold derivatives are originated, offset, hedged, bought, sold, traded, etc. every day by people who do hold any of the physical, never have and never will.
Your statement applies (I believe) to the old gold-carry trade but not to Comex or any commodity exchange at present. I suspect that even some of the gold-carry trade was all done on paper with the gold never moved from its original storage cellar. It's almost all a fiat paper game.
Rich

silvercollector

(01/16/2003; 17:20:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94686)

Trojan

...and the dollar seeing sub-101 !!!

Cavan Man

(01/16/2003; 17:33:11 MDT - Msg ID: 94687)

R Powell

Have you read "Fooled By Randomness"? I think you'd enjoy it.

Waverider

(01/16/2003; 17:37:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94688)

DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlMore on Spot 'n Spikes diet...oh...and Streaks!

R Powell

(01/16/2003; 17:39:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94689)

a nation of one

I read your (94603) a few times before basically agreeing but it seems that you may have then extrapolated this line of reasoning to decide that, since the market action looks normal, there is no excessive manipulation.
Along these lines, what if there was indeed, a strong dollar policy for most of the 1990s. Now, even if the PPT or others did not intentionally and specically target the gold market, but did promote a strong dollar policy through, perhaps, currency exchange markets, should this be considered gold market manipulation? If the strong dollar policy was effected intentionally, and POG was surpressed because of this policy, but the gold market itself was never influenced, was POG manipulated? Is there a link or connection between the dollar's strength/weakness and the POG?
I wonder if the puzzle might be further complicated as to whether there was/is intentional gold pricing mechanisms at work or whether the suppression on the POG was/is a secondary (though directly linked) effect?
If a antropologist finds a fireplace from eons ago, he might assume someone lit the fire to keep warm and/or cook. Maybe this was the fire's purpose but inadvertantly left behind some charcoal which empowered the earth's first great artists. Did the "keep warm and cook food" policy create art?
The strong dollar policy, whether intentional or not, surpressed the prices of most commodities (not only gold) for many years. Intentional or no?? I don't know!
Rich

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 17:47:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94690)

JPM banksters to face criminal charges!

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5-546031,00.htmlROBERT MORGENTHAU, the Manhattan district attorney, is preparing to charge at least one banker from JP Morgan Chase amid allegations that trades organised by the group helped to conceal billions of dollars of debt at Enron, the bankrupt energy company.

Dozens of employees from the bank have appeared over recent months before a closed grand jury in New York to explain the trades, with dealings in gas supply contracts between Enron, JP Morgan and Mahonia, a Jersey-based company, the focus of the questions.

Sources close to the hearings told The Times last night, however, that the hearings, which have also involved staff of other Wall Street firms, are drawing to a close and that criminal charges "against a couple of JP Morgan people" are expected.
____________
Maybe we will learn more about their gold dealings?

R Powell

(01/16/2003; 17:50:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94691)

Cavan Man

I'm presently reading "Profitable Grain Trading", one of my Christmas presents but I'll put "Fooled By Randomness" on my list as the kids also gave dear, old dad a bookstore gift certificate.
I've read and greatly enjoyed "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" and know of the opposing theories. By the title I'll guess this is one opposing view, yes?
Reading..it does a brain good..
Thanks
Rich

P.S. Does anyone happen to know if the price of gold will be higher or lower tomorrow? TIA

Gandalf the White

(01/16/2003; 17:56:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94692)

QUESTION to ALL !!! <;-)

IF I were to ask the Castle about ANOTHER POG contest, WOULD anyone "second" the Proposal ?
<;-)

Cavan Man

(01/16/2003; 18:06:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94693)

Rich

I'm still trying to figure out if I am smart enough to understand what the man is saying ;>)..

CoBra(too)

(01/16/2003; 18:06:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94694)

POG @ R. Powell

Well, Sir, that's rich.

Your question is definitely absurd! How can POG be higher or lower, as there is only one measure - Gold!

...and who the hell cares - as Gold is Gold!
Ha ;) cb2

mdgc

(01/16/2003; 18:48:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94695)

new highs

No one on this list can doubt that gold has really broken out. And that it is headed higher . . . a lot higher. We will differ on just how high gold will go, and how soon it will get there.

How high? My guess is we are going to $415, give or take a bit. How soon? Tomorrow, I wish. After all, it is a Friday. In any case, testing $420 will likely come soon, weeks, not months.

In February 1996 and January 1990 there were short lived spikes in the $410 to $420 range. There is no significant resistance before $420. Getting through $420 won't be easy, but that is another story.

The upward surge of gold in last few weeks has felt a little like the end of 1979. Gold has a buzz. Virtually all the TV stock-market talking-heads now mention the price of gold, some daily. The Funds must buy gold stocks for window dressing. Precious Metals Funds receive money rather than redeem like most other Funds. Can the water-cooler be far behind?

Platinum, too, is about to test earlier spikes, the most recent in $620/625 range in December 2000. K*tco's 20-year platinum chart shows a spike near 650 in the middle of 1987. The peak previous to 1987 is the fabled 1980.

Platinum closed today at $619 and is looking up. An breakout to 2 year highs would create a bit more metals buzz that would help gold.

Wishful thinking, perhaps. I cannot find daily or weekly data for 1987, at least on K*tco. Nor with Google.

Someone on this list must know where they might be found. Please point me there and data. Thanks in advance.

Can't wait for tomorrow.

TGIF

Chap X aka GOLDen Greek

(01/16/2003; 18:50:01 MDT - Msg ID: 94696)

Gandalf....

I second that emotion.....

Opps...that was Smokey R. & the Miracles....

knotakare

(01/16/2003; 18:50:52 MDT - Msg ID: 94697)

Question on the US Strong Dollar Policy?

My conclusion of the aftermath of the "Policy" is that it has severly weakened the US banking system, and a collapse is very likely somtime down the road.

The gold leasing is the area where I have the question. Has anyone ever seen an explanation of why this leasing may not have destructive effects on the US economy; that it is benign in it's character, and only looks bad on the surface because Wall Street firms benefitted. That there is some policy measure or other plan to remedy it's ill effects?

To me the leasing looks like a conspiracy, to keep the good times rolling, but especially to benefi FED insiders such as the Bullion Banks. If the conspiracy results in a loss of national security, to me it doesn't matter whether that was the original intent or not. A resonable person would have seen that the gold would not be paid back, and then intuitively understand how this would harm our national economy and security.

I have come to these conclusions, but I want to make sure I am not missing something. Any comments are appreciated.

EagleOne

(01/16/2003; 19:20:48 MDT - Msg ID: 94698)

mdgc

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/usgmonth.html
This on goes back to 1974.

EagleOne

sector

(01/16/2003; 19:30:27 MDT - Msg ID: 94699)

@R[ich]Powell Sorry Rich...if it were all fiat paper...

...then the central banks would still have half their gold----which they clearly do not. They have blown 16,000 tonnes in the financial scam of two centuries. All that gold really IS gone. Weltke wants more sales only so he can DELIVER his past sales bullion. The Bundesbank probably has no deeded metal at all in their vaults.

The miner sells a future delivery of un-mined gold. That qualifies as a specified gold asset. The jeweler hedges.--He has metal inventory to hedge against or he buys futures.

There can be no short derivative [Which is what we are talking about] established unless there first is a source of real metal. One cannot short an equity without borrowing it from someone else, one CAN buy calls with fiat easily.

But it has always been the gold shorts that have hammered the spot price down. Now that they are essentially out of metal to borrow the game is over..."Checkmate" as Reg Howe put it.

And I'll bring something else up. On the way down, the bullion bakers and hedger mines had the government central banks as allies. The government and the cbs were the enemy of the investor who was naive of the governmental intervention practice of selling metal to drop its price.

Now that we are on the other side of the valley, so to speak, the government will turn on their former allies and not sell as they did in the past. Every man for himself. You need a life-preserver gold loan Mr. hedger? Ask Bill McDonough...oooops! I just remembered, he just retired! Oh, well.

The new victims of government will be the hedged producers and certain intermediate-sized bullion banks who counted on perpetual help and who still are in disbelief that they are adrift in a cold gold rising sea as the USS Federal Reserve pulls away.

IF the govt were going to rescue these poor folks, they would have already done it.

Newcrest, Placer Dome, Barrick---Say goodbye to your former pals at the Fed and Treasury. And about JPM? well there's at least two suits that are going to be cuffed by the NY District Attorney's pretty soon. THEY may be singing a bit louder than normal.

Paper alone can't drop the spot price of gold. You must have metal to borrow and the big red metal boat just headed South.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 19:36:28 MDT - Msg ID: 94700)

@ R Powell (01/16/03; 17:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 94689)

I don't know the answers to your questions. I don't mean to be impolite, but I do not usually become enduringly interested in such things, perhaps because they seem unrelated to reality as I perceive it. I have been told that I am odd in this regard, and also in other ways. But my experience has led me to believe that I am correct in my actions more often than other people are. And so I tentatively conclude that maybe my thinking is reacted to as though it were wierd, because it is new. My concern is more that what posters on this forum have recently said they believe has come about because of manipulation seems to me to be more accurately describable as having come about as a consequent of the ordinary day-to-day trading habits of thousands of speculator individuals. That is what I was attempting to explain. Today for instance, it seemed to me that I understood something that I had not comprehended before, about why POG does what it does. And just after I posted the reasons why I believed that gold would only go up, it went up. If my understanding is correct, I should be able to do it again. No insurance, but it's worth a try. The explanation that inspectors found evidence Iraq is not convincing for instance. I mean, when you heard they had found it, did you call your broker and buy stocks? No? Then why would anyone else? That explanation is given because the people giving the explanations haven't figured out the real reason. It was a coincidence, that's all.

Cavan Man

(01/16/2003; 19:41:02 MDT - Msg ID: 94701)

@sector

sixteen (thousand) tons and whatd'ya get?Any chance however remote you have drawn the wrong conclusion from the BIS data you referenced? Any chance the BIS is BSing? Respectfully (yet, sceptically)..CM

R Powell

(01/16/2003; 19:44:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94702)

CoBra(too)

"...and who the hell cares..as Gold is Gold."

Perhaps anyone who desperately needs fiat for life's necessities and has to trade/sell/exchange/whatever gold for fiat. The amount of fiat might be a consideration.
Also, the buyer might care or, because it is gold does it make no difference whether $360/ounce or $3600/ounce is necessary to buy?
Monetary exchange...an unfortunate reality of life..
Rich

Chris Powell

(01/16/2003; 19:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94703)

GATA love those coincidences

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1388When gold soars $7, you GATA love those
coincidences:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1388

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Chris Powell

(01/16/2003; 19:47:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94704)

Vancouver conference to hear from GATA

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1389GATA will be featured at the Vancouver Resource
Investment Conference Jan. 26-27.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

mdgc

(01/16/2003; 19:49:27 MDT - Msg ID: 94705)

Eagle One

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/usgmonth.htmlThank you.

Lovely chart, exactly what I want. Is there a similar one for platinum?

sector

(01/16/2003; 19:49:37 MDT - Msg ID: 94706)

@CavenMan Not a Chance--They really are out 16,000 tonnes ----and----The Devaluation Thing in Japan

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030117wo12.htm...by combining "Forwards and Swaps including Gold" in a single column so I had to trace back up and extract the numbers. The guys at the G-10 are in deep do-do. They did all they could to hide the numbers. This is why nobody in the past noriced... they were too lazy to do the math.

Moreover, if there were something wrong with the 16,000 tonne figure the "Wood" types would have pounded me. No gloves yet a month and twelve days afterwards.

Recent gold price action ONLY fits a pattern of selling exhaustion and a future move to extremely higher levels.

-----------Yomiuri Online-----------

U.S. war on deflation threatens global economy

Jesper Koll Special to The Daily Yomiuri

Around the world, a growing number of economists are trying to forecast movements in financial markets on the basis of predictions about what will happen to economies. Unfortunately, much of this may be a waste of time. More often than not, the financial markets determine the future course of economies.

Given the dramatic decline in global stock markets and the relentless drop in interest rates during 2002, this should make economic forecasting for this year easy: The world economy may be headed toward a deflationary decompression. The good news is that central banks around the world are on to this and are beginning to mobilize for a fight against it. The prospects for a real fight are serious because the war is being led by the U.S. Federal Reserve--the very center of the global financial system.

On Nov. 21, Ben Bernanke, who was appointed to the U.S. Federal Reserve Board in August, made an extraordinary speech titled "Deflation--making sure it does not happen here." Bernanke made it very clear that the Fed would not hesitate to implement radical and unorthodox policy to ensure that "any deflation would be mild and brief."

Bernanke stated that the Fed would not hesitate to buy corporate bonds or make zero-rate loans to banks against corporate commercial paper collateral, in addition to being ready to buy foreign government debt.

These are important policy statements that mark a true regime shift. The U.S.-centered war against deflation is starting. Global central bankers will have no choice but to follow.

For Japan, the key implication could be negative. There is no historic precedent of an economy pulling out of deflation, however mild, without a currency depreciation. So the greater the risk of deflation in the United States, the harder it will be for Japan to prevent an appreciation of the yen. The coming U.S.-centered war against deflation may very well force a sharp acceleration in deflation in both Japan and Europe.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Here is the Japanese currency devaluation thingy all spelled out nice and pretty. The only remaining question is how many elders there will get to the bullion dealers before the tiny window of gold buying opportunity closes.

R Powell

(01/16/2003; 19:51:42 MDT - Msg ID: 94707)

Cavan Man

Your (94693)...I believe you are. If it were free and easy, trying to get there would be no fun and offer no satisfaction. Besides, none of us will ever get all the way there. Where is it we're going, anyway?

Cavan Man

(01/16/2003; 20:03:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94708)

sector

I disagree in part with that chap. European Central Bankers do have a choice in the matter. There will be pain but they have a decent contingency plan for that stormy day. I think it is beginning to rain......

Topaz

(01/16/2003; 20:12:00 MDT - Msg ID: 94709)

a nation of one.

When all the pieces of a puzzle don't quite fit, we must accept that many interpretations of this Golden surrealist collage are possible.
I share your opinion that JPM is largely as they say they are (re: gold exposure) but the interesting aspect is "how they got there".
The Blanchard suit may well prove successful as it's my thinking, during the turnaround, (strong/weak dollar) JPM "may have" pocketed the bulk of what now appears as Treasury's "deep storage" Gold....and the Admin is pissed!
There is also imo no such thing as Black and White manipulation, if we all sit idly by waiting for BoJ intervention on the $/Yen, as is the case now, then by inference we accept ALL market intervention/manipulation....sad but true.
Another curiosity is the " HUI and Dollar index-outperform" of those historically Gold currencies - the ZAR in particular.
The shell-game is becoming more apparent by the day.
....keep well anoo.

R Powell

(01/16/2003; 20:46:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94710)

Selling that which does not exist

Sector, your contention that 16,000 tonnes have obligations against them may very well be true. My question is...Has the physical gold left the vaults? A year or two ago when the 16,000 ton number first appeared, it was questioned and the fact that about 30,000 tonnes of the 33,000 tonnes of the world's central banks gold never left the banks. The physical is not gone. M.K. gave his opinion that the often mentioned central bank selling may be a shell game with banks selling and buying to one another. Why do we always hear of central bank selling and not the buying? Why do the reports never say " Three hundred tonnes of gold was BOUGHT last year from the bank of England..." My point is.. the gold is NOT physically gone. The 16,000 tonnes may have a lien on it but it is not gone.

As for ....

"There can be no short derivative [Which is what we are talking about] established unless there first is a source of real metal. One cannot short an equity without borrowing it from someone else, one CAN buy calls with fiat easily."

Any trader can short or sell a contract of gold, silver, soybeans, etc. I am presently short 5000 ounces of March silver (covered by a call option). I have sold 5000 ounces of silver that I do not have and did not borrow. I must offset this sold position before a specific date or I may be called upon to deliver that which I do not have, that which I have not borrowed and that which I have absolutely no means of furnishing!! Don't worry, even if I do not offset in time, my broker will call to remind me, and even then if I do not act promptly, my broker MUST, by law, offset the position when the time arrives since I do not have the sufficient funds to cover.
The short selling of equities requires borrowing the shares from a broker. Commodities trading does not work this way. Speculative players may buy or sell futures which are promises to take possession or promises to make delivery at a set price on a specified date in the future. These positions (held on margin) may be offset at any time before the specified date and must be offset for any and all not capable of making or taking delivery. Options, too can be bought or sold, with the require monetary margin. Other than hedgers, it is all a paper game. Sound, fury, pain and gain all settled in fiat.
The possession of to surrender or the ability to pay the outstanding balance are not necessary requirements. I have bought and sold options on the DOW and S+P. These are index numbers. There are now derivatives being bought and sold on the whether there will be more or fewer bankruptcies at future dates. No one borrows bankruptcies before entering this casino game on the short side. Possession has absolutely nothing to do with the speculative interest in commodities.
Believe me, if the physical commodities did not even exist, speculators would find something else to speculate about.
It is a hard concept to grasp that derivatives derive their value (cash settlement price) daily from something else. It's existence may be essential for life as we know it but it's existence does not even matter for price settlement. All that matters is that it does have a variable price that can be determined. Madness? Probably.
That selling of that which does not exist occurs every day is most probably best seen in silver. There may be more silver sold right now on Comex than is in storage in the world (not counting jewelry, silverware, unmined silver). This drives Butler nuts but it is just part of the game.
Rich

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 20:51:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94711)

@ Topaz (01/16/03; 20:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 94709)pog

"When all the pieces of a puzzle don't quite fit, we must accept that many interpretations of this Golden surrealist collage are possible."

--Yes, that's true. But when the truth is known, it turns out to be one thing.

R Powell

(01/16/2003; 21:23:02 MDT - Msg ID: 94712)

a nation of one

I certainly did NOT want to give you or anyone the impression that I thought your thinking "wierd". Actually, I thought it made perfect sense. I was just trying to expand the definition of a manipulated market. Imho, to varying degrees, I believe they are all "manipulated" at some time or another, some intentionally and some not. This too is part of the game but a part I do not spend too much time trying to fiqure out. (Currency markets seem the most susceptible to unpredictable and manipulated moves)
Hopefully, the laws of supply and demand, psychology and politics will be the most powerful forces overall. They're all part of the puzzle.
I enjoy your thoughts. Keep them coming!
Rich

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 21:25:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94713)

info

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=5&t=c&a=12
POG has been consolidating around 356. Watch the ratio of buys to sells. Watch also the effect on POG which sells have. Further, observe the relationship this has to the moving average. It has already been determined that the moving average will go higher. When it does, there are only two things that are possible. Either POG will remain above it, or POG will cross below it. If below it, sells will increase to some extent. In this case, watch the effect which sells have on POG. If small, POG will go higher. If great, lower. If POG remains above the moving average, then the moving average will at a later time have to incline upward more steeply. When it does this, there are only two things possible. Either POG will stay above it, or POG will cross below it. If it goes below it, then watch to see how many sells there are, and the effect they have on POG. If POG stays above the moving average, in order to do this, POG will have to jump significantly higher quickly, at some point later in the day. This seems likely. The reason: sells have increasingly diminished during previous days and weeks. Sellers are experiencing a decline in their motive to sell.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 21:27:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94714)

@ Powell

No, no. I wasn't meaning that you had suggest I was weird. I was saying that a lot of other people do sometimes say that they think I am weird. There, I think that is the right speeling of that word (weerd). Oh, and spelling, not speeling.

mikal

(01/16/2003; 21:33:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94715)

@Cb2

Re: Value of gold
Well said!
And clearly understood... to most!!
Regards, Goldustorm, Goldhorizon

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 21:36:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94716)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=dmax
POG is looking very, very strong.

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 21:42:19 MDT - Msg ID: 94717)

@ Rich

"Hopefully, the laws of supply and demand, psychology and politics will be the most powerful forces overall."

--I don't know. Sometimes biological entities move in ways hard to anticipate. The human species, and its myriad of variants, is likely to do something in the near future that will surprise all of us. That seems to be in the wind.

Gandalf the White

(01/16/2003; 21:48:28 MDT - Msg ID: 94718)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !Prior posts ---
Chap X aka GOLDen Greek usagold.com msg#: 94696)
Gandalf.... I second that emotion.....
---
Thanks Sir Chap X, <;-) and that was all that was needed !
Sir MK said "LET�S DO IT !!"
*******

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.
---

THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February �03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 -----

The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old)goldpiece !!
Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin was
Minted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce.
(Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)
---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
(Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003:

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 $358.1 + $6.9 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a LOW = $350.
===

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines"
LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!!
READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
<;-)
---
LET the CONTEST BEGIN !!

Waverider

(01/16/2003; 21:56:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94719)

YAHOOOOO......

Another price guessing contest - thank you both Sir MK and Sir Gandalf! If I remember correctly, Spot just LOVED the last one and went just a LITTLE crazy after it was announced...tomorrow should be INTERESTING!

a nation of one

(01/16/2003; 22:07:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94720)

**************** $378.10 ******************

Just so as not to be too conservative. The dollar is falling. Good stocks are few and far between. B. Gates knows this and Microsoft has declared a dividend. Smart man. Largely, the rest are without hope, relatively. War will not occur and this will be good for gold, because then it will still seem like it is going to. Oil will jump. The Euro will strengthen. Mr. Bush's position in public office will be reinforced in numerous ways, too difficult to predict to be explained here. There will be no attack on America. Production of gasoline will decline. The price will go up, alarming everyone. More people will buy gold. This will make speculators eager, and so the price will go up.

Kagalaska

(01/16/2003; 22:29:48 MDT - Msg ID: 94721)

******367.40****

Gold means different things to different people- investment, last chance, fetish, hobby, job, everything, nothing ect.For me gold is a posibility, for what I hav'nt figured out cause I dont know where its going, but while its up I'm there and when its down I guess I'll be there to theres just something about that LUSTure. It dosn't matter where you fall on the list just increase your holding. One day(sooner rather than later) you will be glad you did.

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 22:39:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94722)

Shortage of Gold in China!

Shanghai, Jan. 17 (Dow Jones) - Gold traded on China's sole precious metals exchange hit a record high Friday morning amid a shortage in supply, analysts said.

On the Shanghai Gold Exchange at 0240 GMT, the most heavily-traded gold bullion of 99.95% purity was quoted at a 95.32 yuan ($1=CNY8.28) per gram record high, compared with Thursday's close of CNY94.54/gram.

The remaining 99.99% purity gold hasn't seen any trade.

Gold prices in Shanghai have been hitting record highs almost nonstop recently and have jumped over 10% compared with their closing price Oct. 30.

Gains for Shanghai gold outpaced the rises overseas owing to producers' unwillingness to offer the metal, though China's gold has been tracking the international gold prices since the exchange was launched Oct. 30 last year.

"Domestic producers have been holding on to gold to wait for even higher prices," a local gold analyst said.

"Gold prices have been rising in overseas and domestic markets due to concerns over a (possible) U.S.-led war against Iraq," the analyst added. "Chinese producers have caught the point (on the war concerns) and cut their gold offering in order to create more profit after prices further strengthened by such an intended cut."

(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires

17-01-03 0317GMT

DJ China Gold/Record High -3: Gold Imports May Rise Soon

Another supportive factor was that China hasn't imported any gold since late last year.

Since the Shanghai Gold Exchange was launched, the central bank has yet to allow any domestic commercial bank to import gold, though it has withdrawn from the import business.

Up until the launch of China's gold exchange, China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, was the country's sole gold importer.

However, an exchange official in Shanghai said the central bank would have "no problem" in allowing local commercial banks to import gold soon.

China's gold consumption is believed by market participants to total around 200 metric tons a year, outpacing its production.

China's gold production in 2002 is estimated to have fallen to about 180 tons from 181.83 tons in 2001, due to the government's shutting down of small gold mines, analysts said.

The Chinese statistical authority hasn't released gold production figures for 2002.

China's gold market is off limits to foreign investors.
_____________________________
Yeehaaa

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 22:50:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94723)

BOC gets permission to import Gold!!!

Shanghai, Jan. 17 (Dow Jones) - China's central bank has granted approval to Bank of
China, or BOC, to import and export gold, marking the first time a commercial bank has been
allowed to purchase gold from the overseas market, a BOC official said Friday.

The central bank couldn't be immediately reached for comment.
"We got approval from the People's Bank of China (the central bank) recently," said the
official at BOC's treasury department in Beijing.

"But it doesn't mean the imports of gold could start immediately, as we need to get a host of
permits from other government arms...such as the permit for buying foreign currencies from
the authority for foreign exchange management," the official said, referring to the State
Administration of Foreign Exchange.

He wouldn't comment on the timetable for gold imports by his bank, but predicted that BOC
would acquire all the permits from different government departments "soon".
In the past, Chinese commercial banks normally weren't allowed to import and export gold,
though they were allowed to trade gold in the international markets.

China's central bank was the nation's sole gold importer and exporter up until the launch of
the Shanghai Gold Exchange Oct. 30 last year.
Since the central bank withdrew from the import and export market for gold when the
Shanghai bourse debuted, no Chinese commercial banks have obtained government
approval for such activities except BOC.
______________
More Gold please :-)

Galerider

(01/16/2003; 23:02:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94724)

****390.00****

Hopefully, this is a very conservative estimate. I believe the next significant event will be John Q. Public and Joe Sixpack catching the trend of the precious metals after witnessing all other alternative investments going nowhere fast in 2003.

ElGordo

(01/16/2003; 23:07:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94725)

China now seems to be creating an inflationary wave in a wide range of industrial commodities

http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/newswire/2003/01/14/rtr846004.html"While the global manufacturing sector flirts with deflationary forces, China now seems to be creating an inflationary wave in a wide range of industrial commodities," said Sean Darby, senior strategist at Nomura in Hong Kong.

The good news for companies feeding on this boom is that the shortages in refining capacity are likely to persist.

SHORTAGES EVERYWHERE

In 20 years, China would be short of three billion tonnes of iron, 500-600 million tonnes of copper and 100 million tonnes of aluminium, according to a report by the Chinese Academy of Geological Science carried on Sunday by the Workers Daily.
China would also face shortages of tungsten and zinc, which at present it exports to the world market.

"By the year 2020, China will need to import 500 million tonnes of crude oil and 100 billion cubic metres of natural gas, about 70 percent and 50 percent, respectively, of the country's total consumption," the newspaper added.

China already has to import about 50 percent of its industrial chemicals, according to Cheng Khoo, a chemicals analyst at UBS Warburg in Hong Kong.

Black Blade

(01/17/2003; 01:43:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94726)

A Sea of Red

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Globally market indices are lower except the Nikkei.

- Black Blade

(01/17/2003; 02:14:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94727)

Gold price prediction

*****372.00*****
Jim Sinclair according to me has nail it down relatively accurate since a few months. After 354.50 it was clear sailing of sort till 372.00$
Thanks and congratulation.

Black Blade

(01/17/2003; 02:49:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94728)

Euro Markets Get Hammered

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Euro markets have gone from bad to worse.

- Black Blade

erayboy

(01/17/2003; 03:05:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94729)

***** 378.90 *****

Reasons for the continuing bullishness in GOLD:

1. FED will continue to debase/sevalue the UD Dollar via 24/7 printing press actions.

2. Geo-political uncertainty will rise, not fall, as the war begins. I expect it to expand to include Israel and other Arab neighbors.

3. Shortage of actual metal for delivery.

4. Main bullion houses switched from being sellers to being buyers on Thursday. Record short overhang in GOLD COT will supply a constant stream of buyers from here on in.

Good luck.

Topaz

(01/17/2003; 03:06:48 MDT - Msg ID: 94730)

Price Guess

****$348****
The next near-term PoG mover will be Saddams abdication on or about 27 Jan thus defusing Iraqi tensions....for the time being!

Black Blade

(01/17/2003; 03:10:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94731)

FleetBoston to cut 1,900 jobs

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/030117/na_fin_us_fleetboston_2.html
Snippit:

BOSTON (AP) -- FleetBoston Financial Corp., capping a year marred by bad investments in troubled industries and in Latin America, is cutting 1,900 jobs, or about 4 percent of its work force.

Black Blade: More bankers "bones" are tossed atop the growing "bone pile". It warms the heart to see FleetBoston doing their part to contribute. Hmmm...

Black Blade

(01/17/2003; 03:15:37 MDT - Msg ID: 94732)

Federated Plans to Close 11 Stores, Eliminate Nearly 2,000 Jobs

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/030117/federated_job_cuts_1.html
Federated to Shut Stores, Cut 2,000 Jobs

Snippit:

CINCINNATI (AP) -- Federated Department Stores Inc. plans to close 11 stores and cut nearly 2,000 jobs as it anticipates flat sales and income this year.

Black Blade: Federated sees FleetBoston's "bones" and raises the pot 2,000.

Black Blade

(01/17/2003; 03:28:48 MDT - Msg ID: 94733)

Goodyear Cutting 700 Jobs to Trim Costs

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/030116/goodyear_job_cuts_2.html
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Cutting 700 Jobs to Trim Operating Costs

Snippit:

AKRON, Ohio (AP) -- Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. will eliminate 700 salaried jobs to trim costs, the world's largest tire maker said Thursday.

Black Blade: Goodyear sees the pot, throws in 700 "bones" and calls.

Topaz

(01/17/2003; 03:36:11 MDT - Msg ID: 94734)

@BB

To make market matters worse, there's a Full Moon tonight. NY open looking uglier by the minute.

Black Blade

(01/17/2003; 04:08:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94735)

Saddam Shakes His Fists at US

Saddam gave his speech today in commemoration of the Gulf War 12 years ago. He said that his people are mobilized and will fight to the last. Meanwhile oil prices pulled back as rumors abound of his voluntary exile to a West African country and Saudi appeals for his generals to stage a coup. I seriously doubt these rumors of exile as Saddam is a megalomaniac and not likely to cut and run this early in the game. But it makes good tabloid copy. Meanwhile Gold is holding up well in overnight trade and could even surge higher near the end of NY trade as no one wants to be short ahead of the extended US holiday weekend with such an unstable geopolitical and economic climate. Sure looks like it could get to be "very entertaining" on Wall Street as the clueless Lemmings run headlong into the boiling cauldron only to be served up as Lemming Stew.

I did notice a lot of "interesting" activity in the equities markets too. Investors took positions in the traditional "widows and orphans" stocks such as utilities. Even the utility and energy merchant shares that are on the ropes surged higher as nervous investors grasped at straws. In this environment it is certain that many are nervously casting a quivering glance toward Gold.

Topaz � I wouldn't be surprised if the USD fell sub 100 by the end of the NY close either. It has been grinding lower over the last several hours. There appears to be a lot of sudden buying in the market futures over the last few minutes. Apparently some institutionals are attempting to prop up the markets for the opening bell. It won't likely work, but still, it could get quite gruesome with "blood flowing in the streets" (figuratively that is). Cheers!

- Black Blade

silvercollector

(01/17/2003; 04:18:19 MDT - Msg ID: 94736)

Headline news.....6:00am eastern

Blix meeting with world leaders over new find.

Spot gold +.30 358.10

Euro 106.6 US

Sundeck

(01/17/2003; 04:25:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94737)

********$400.0********

The next important developments/events:

1. Increasing exposure in the professional and public media of gold and gold stocks as profitable investments.

2. Short covering by some big players, continued unwinding of hedgebooks by producers

3. The paper snowball gathers size, US treasuries, bonds and stocks sold off.

4. Funds try to cut their losses and compete for gold positions in small physical-gold/gold-stocks market.

5. Demand in China expands.

6. Jack and Jill Ordinary's disbelief turns to participatory excitement.

Skydog

(01/17/2003; 05:12:59 MDT - Msg ID: 94738)

*****$385.5*********

The next big event for gold IMO is the one Bill Murphy has talked about so often in his Midas commentary ...the one where we wake up one morning to find gold futures lock-limit up, the bad guys scrambling to cover their massive short positions, and Spot headed "To da moon, Alice...to da moon!!!"

Good luck to all,
Skydog

Slowman

(01/17/2003; 06:10:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94739)

Gold Prediction

**********374.10**********

History always repeats itself and you should follow the money.

Remember the 800 dollar gold in the 80"s. How about Sorros, Buffet, and Gates investing in silver !!!! They pay their advisors more money than we make a year to be accurate on investment information.Its not too late to get aboard this rocket. But, contrary to many here, I , believe SILVER will out perform gold percentage wise. JMHO/do your own DD.

ElGordo

(01/17/2003; 07:11:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94740)

Deficit surges

Washington, Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $40.1 billion in November as imports surged following a resumption of business at West Coast ports, a government report showed.

The wider trade gap in goods and services followed a revised $35.2 billion shortfall in October and reflected a record inflow of holiday and other consumer merchandise, the Commerce Department said. Imports had declined in October, when ports in California, Oregon and Washington closed early in the month after shippers locked out union dockworkers in a labor dispute.

By mid-November, most inbound ships had unloaded their cargo, leading to a rebound in imports. The deficit may keep widening in coming months as stronger economic growth in the U.S. boosts demand for foreign-made goods. South Korean-based Hyundai Motor Co. is among producers expecting to sell more in the U.S. this year. A growing trade shortfall subtracts from gross domestic product.

``America is addicted to low-cost consumer goods produced outside its borders,'' said Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank Of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York, before the report. ``The demand for imports will push the trade imbalance out to more worrisome levels in the months to come.''

Economists had expected a deficit of $36.4 billion compared with October's previously reported $35.1 billion gap, according to the median estimate of 60 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.
___________
Dollar will take a hit- Gold should rise

ha_tey_o

(01/17/2003; 07:24:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94741)

************* $379.10 ***************

Short term, I believe the uncertainty revolving around the Iraq/US confrontation will send the price of gold higher. Also spikes in energy prices due to the loss of the Venezuela oil supply and a tight natural gas market in the next month will also add to the pressure for higher gold prices.

Longer term, the US government's growing deficit and the Fed's firing up of the printing press and possible plans to monetize "assets" will certainly send the dollar on a downward spiral that can only lead to higher gold prices in dollars.

seeker I

(01/17/2003; 07:26:52 MDT - Msg ID: 94742)

deception

George Soros is linked with the Rothchilds. He is a currency speculator. and loves deception it maybe just to amuse himself by misleading others that he bought into a silver minning stock.I do believe that gold silver and the Euro are about to rise violently upwards as panick to preserve wealth hits the world.But this time phisical gold will be used to stop the rise of gold and silver they will be used as booster rockets to take the Euro up far and away from all other currencys,im just along for the ride

Black Blade

(01/17/2003; 07:39:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94743)

Trade Deficit Surges to a Record High

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030117/economy_trade_5.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit surged 13.9 percent in November to a record $40.1 billion, as imports increased sharply and exports showed only slight gains despite a weakening dollar, the government said on Friday. Even so, the weaker dollar is "lifting a weight off the economy," Gary Thayer, chief economist with A.G. Edwards and Sons in St. Louis, said. "The dollar was very strong during a time of economic weakness and that put American companies at a disadvantage," Thayer said. "It will take time for the weak dollar to help the export profile and to slow imports, probably until the middle of the year."

Black Blade: It's a Whopper!!! The "Strong Dollar" policy eh?

ElGordo

(01/17/2003; 07:45:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94744)

Industrial Production Falls

Washington, Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. industrial production unexpectedly fell in December and plant use fell to the lowest in nine months, the Federal Reserve reported. It was the second straight annual decline in production, the first time that has happened since 1974-75.

Production at factories, mines and utilities fell 0.2 percent last month, after a 0.1 rise in November, the Fed said. Factories held down production of consumer goods, business equipment and autos, the report showed.

Companies have been reluctant to spend on new equipment and hiring as a slow recovery and the prospect of a war with Iraq curb demand, economists said. Alcoa Inc., the biggest aluminum maker, said earlier this month it will fire 8,000 workers partly because companies have scaled back capital investment plans.

``Companies are still exercising very, very tight controls over inventory, and until they feel more comfortable about sales and profitability, they're not going to allow ordering to get ahead of itself,'' said Carl Tannenbaum, chief U.S. economist at LaSalle Bank in Chicago, before the report.

Economists had expected a 0.2 percent increase in industrial production, based on the median of 62 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, following November's previously reported 0.1 percent increase.

The proportion of industrial capacity in use dropped to 75.4 percent last month, the lowest since March, from 75.6 percent. Capacity utilization reached an 18-year low of 74.6 percent in December 2001. Economists in the survey had expected the ratio to rise to 75.7 percent. During the 10-year expansion that ended in March 2001, plant use averaged 82 percent.

ElGordo

(01/17/2003; 07:47:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94745)

GE profits tank

Fairfield, Connecticut, Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co. said fourth-quarter profit fell 21 percent, its biggest quarterly drop in nine years, because of $1.4 billion in costs to add reserves at its reinsurance business.

Net income fell to $3.1 billion, or 31 cents a share, from $3.93 billion, or 39 cents, a year earlier. Sales at the largest maker of jet engines, turbines and medical-imaging equipment, rose 4.1 percent to $35.4 billion, the company said in a statement.
_________
No recovery here

ElGordo

(01/17/2003; 07:56:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94746)

Dollar dropping

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=iNew lows

VanRip

(01/17/2003; 07:59:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94747)

*****370.50*****

Gold will move slowly higher as more deep pockets and ordinary people become convinced gold is where they should be putting their money. An extra kicker will come from those who believe they should buy gold to keep pace with the dollar's decline.

Clink!

(01/17/2003; 08:01:54 MDT - Msg ID: 94748)

Gap up ?

A lot of people have been talking (with obvious relish !) of the prospect of the gap-up-short-cover-panic. I believe that it was FOA who stated that this wouldn't happen for the simple reason that the actual gold is still in the CB vaults. There will be a separation of physical gold price from paper gold price (that exists now anyway as Goldfields found out when they tried to buy a significant amount of physical a few months back), but it is not clear which direction the two prices will go in. It is very possible that the paper price will fall (effectively devalued), but will appear to rise because of greater relative inflation.

As has been said on the forum in the last few days, the central bankers are not fools, and they know a heck of a lot more of the real situation than we do. There is no way that they are going to let go of the gold, even if it does not actually, officially belong to them. There is a saying that possession is nine tenths of the law, but in the case of nation states, the other tenth is covered by changing the law to suit. Remember the closing of the gold window in 1971 ? How many of us think that the Iraq situation is really a means of changing the 'legal' ownership of Iraqi oil reserves.

This does not mean that the POG is not going to rise significantly, maybe even to the $30,000 level, but it is going to be done in a relatively controlled fashion. The leases are all going to be cancelled by the CBs as they see fit and settlement is going to be in fiat - it costs them nothing and the bullion banks probably get a bonus for the breach of contract. This will happen if the CBs get the feeling that the market is running away from them.

Just my two grams worth.

Black Blade

(01/17/2003; 08:05:37 MDT - Msg ID: 94749)

Natural Gas Industry Update

http://170.12.99.3/researchpdf/iEne011603b_1044.pdf
EIA Reports Larger-Than-Expected 136 Bcf Withdrawal

The EIA reported a 136 Bcf withdrawal, which was larger than the Street's expectations of a 108-116 Bcf withdrawal and our estimate of a 110-120 Bcf withdrawal.

♦We estimate this week's report implies that the gas markets are ~3 Bcf/d tighter relative to last year on a weather-adjusted basis.

♦The near-month (February) contract is trading up $0.17 intraday on the EIA's report at $5.60/MMBtu.

♦NOAA has forecasted 225 degree days for the week ending January 18, 2003. If the forecast is accurate, we expect next week's EIA report to show a withdrawal of approximately 200 Bcf.

♦We continue to believe the natural gas markets are poised for a major supply shock this winter, the beginnings of which are only just beginning to be reflected in prices. As such, we remain extremely bullish on natural gas prices.

Black Blade: The last point above says it all: "We continue to believe the natural gas markets are poised for a major supply shock this winter, the beginnings of which are only just beginning to be reflected in prices." Also, Canadian inventories are plunging hard as well, so we shouldn't expect much help from up north. Energy costs are going to surge much higher as the next energy crisis looms.

Note: Another Artic Blast is coming south through the upper Midwest followed by yet another one. Looks like a repeat of the 2000-2001 energy crisis is in the works except instead of a demand driven crisis, this time it is supply driven. There will be more shock waves rippling through the US economy.

J-Bullion

(01/17/2003; 08:16:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94750)

*****$368.40******

The next major event in gold will be the dollar dropping under the major pyschological point of 1.00 on the dollar index. Add any comments by our new favorite FED member, Bernanske and we could see $400 gold very quickly. Any attempt to devalue a currency has always ended in a disaster, and I don't see how this time it is going to be any different. We are too dependent on foreign capital inflows and oil into this country to maintain our economy. Then again, when oil is $50/barrel because we debased our currency, it will give the government a good reason to seize the stuff from Iraq/Iran/Libya...etc... claiming that they are all greedy, and the American public will buy it. All along not realizing it's the Fed that's making our currency worthless.

steady

(01/17/2003; 08:24:06 MDT - Msg ID: 94751)

the growing bone pile

Dominion Resources To Cut Several Hundred Jobs By Summer
01/17/2003
Dow Jones News Services
RICHMOND, Va. (AP)--Dominion Resources Inc. (D) will cut several hundred jobs over the next year, with most of the cuts happening by summer, said company spokesman Dan Genest.
The cuts are aimed at improving efficiency, he said.
Dominion will lay off about 100 meter readers across the state because the company is installing 500,000 additional automated electric meters, which send readings to Dominion. Genest said the meters will eliminate estimated bills.
Other cuts will be support jobs in the company's energy generation and transmission departments and in vehicle maintenance.
Dominion Resources employs about 16,500 people in Virginia and North Carolina.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/17/2003; 08:45:54 MDT - Msg ID: 94752)

Why should YOU buy gold? Because no one ELSE will do it FOR you. We can help

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

Cytek

(01/17/2003; 08:50:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94753)

Here's a conversation that probably taking place right now at JPM

Bob, this is Art, up in Risk Management. You know that open gold short trade we've talked about all last year? We'll, the SHTF. Remember how I was worried when we were approaching $300, then $310 and 4 times up around $330? You told me not to worry, your friends had it all under control and you would soon have a winning trade. Hasn't happened.

Remember I told you $354.50 was your drop dead line. We crossed it yesterday and you MUST buy to cover. I can't let this ride through the holiday weekend. Worse yet, we have Morgan and GS already buying to cover, plus I understand some large orders are sitting right below the market from some private buyers, a guy named One Hung Fat and another called Dr. In the Know. And Bob, the thing that will really kill us is they are buying gold in Asia using $USD. My connections told me almost half the $USD's overseas are counterfeit, but they have no way of knowing which half. This could get dicey.

By the way, Bob, have you updated your resume lately? How's the family? Why? We plan on saying you left to take care of family matters. And you may want to tell Carol to cool it on the $1,000 manicures and $2,000 haircuts. Plus, it may be wise to pull Bobby Jr. out of the $50,000/yr. pre-school. I think you are going to need the money.

Mr Gresham

(01/17/2003; 08:59:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94754)

1975

Why am I getting images of helicopters leaving the roof of the US Embassy in Saigon, with derivative players clinging to the underside?

Rock

(01/17/2003; 09:01:52 MDT - Msg ID: 94755)

*********364.20*******

364.20

I think the fundamentals for gold is great. The math doesn't lie and with the trade deficit and national debt streaking to record highs along with a weak dollar all signs point straight to gold. Throw in the ME and NK and you have a few more good reasons in favor of gold. Follow the money trail and you'll end up at golds front door.

Regarding yesterdays thoughts: I noticed a few posters didn't like my opinion regarding certain current events, namely mikal and a nation of one. I make no apologies for expressing myself even if it doesn't line up with your train of thought.

May I offer a suggestion, instead of making rude comments that my opinion stinks why not take the more educated road of maturity like Topaz and Timbervision because they expressed "why" they disagreed with me rather than reverting to personal attacks. Heck, many times I have disagreed with certain opinions here at the castle but I have never reverted to taking personal jabs at another individual just because it didn't line up with my thinking.

I don't take it personal however because whenever one stands up for truth or for what one believes there will always be a few who can't express themselves properly whereby using inflammatory dialog as a form of retaliation.

Cheers,

Rock

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(01/17/2003; 09:10:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94756)

@Cytek

LOL!!!

a nation of one

(01/17/2003; 09:25:12 MDT - Msg ID: 94757)

a wild wild guess

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=5&t=c&a=12
The moving average is already slated to rise within two hours, and buying and selling are presently about equal. POG is crossing back and forth over the line, going neither up nor down significantly. Strong buying should occur once the moving average turns up. When it does, POG will jump. All this before the close.

a nation of one

(01/17/2003; 09:35:11 MDT - Msg ID: 94758)

@ Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 94755)

I did not disagree with your posting at all and even offered you encouragement. I thought your post was very good.

Jing Zu

(01/17/2003; 09:42:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94759)

Gold*** Go'in UP!

http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=2064801≠wsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=markets GOLD - Gold hugs its closest level in nearly six years on Iraq jitters and weaker dollar . Spot gold hits traded high of $358.00 in Europe, just short of Thursday's $358.50 reached in New York which was highest since March, 1997. * Quoted at $357.50/358.25 an ounce by end of European trade at 1615 GMT, little changed from $357.75/358.25 at the close of trade in New York on Thursday but up from Thursday's European close of $353.70/354.45.

**** It is ONLY a matter of time.****

a nation of one

(01/17/2003; 09:43:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94760)

still guessing wildly

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=5&t=c&a=12
The moving average should move up pretty soon now, and when it does there will be strong buying. Just you watch. It has nothing to do with news, or supply, or manipulation, or anything like that. It is just a lot of ordinary people, each one doing what he thinks is best.

a nation of one

(01/17/2003; 09:49:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94761)

yet another

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=5&t=c&a=12
Now, if you will look, you will see the moving average starting to turn up. Soon it will turn up more. As it does, strong buying should occur. It's just people following their own individual understanding, many of them knowing the same thing.

Zhisheng

(01/17/2003; 09:53:34 MDT - Msg ID: 94762)

***374.0***

Gold has excellent fundamentals: demand about 25% over supply, gold denominated currency (the dollar) weak and growing weaker, weakness of interest-producing investments, a perceived change of state sentiment toward gold (perhaps increased backing of currency by gold), increasing public awareness of gold as a "safe haven", and a prospect of war (or wars) in the Middle East.

Their has been strong physical buying to offset derivative selling--this has been the most important development in the gold market in recent months. I see no reason why this should not continue for the duration of the contest, and further.

Rock

(01/17/2003; 09:58:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94763)

Re: a nation of one

My apologies my friend, must have gotten my wires crossed. You know how it is when you pass mid age. I enjoy your writings. Thanks.

a nation of one

(01/17/2003; 10:00:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94764)

boy, do I!

You aren't the only one.

a nation of one

(01/17/2003; 10:02:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94765)

clearer

Boy, I sure do know what it's like to be past the middle. You aren't the only one to get his wires crossed.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/17/2003; 10:04:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94766)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. How does USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals position itself among its competitors with regard to credibility, reputability and pricing?

MK. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals has always been considered one of the most reputable firms in the business and it's always been that way. We have placed literally thousands of ounces of gold with investors and our repeat business and referrals are both very strong. That doesn't happen unless you know what you are doing and your clients know that you know what you are doing. If I were to sum it up, I would say we combine the first rate services and research that you would expect from a very large firm with the favorable pricing you would expect from a smaller, client-conscious firm.

Operative

(01/17/2003; 10:09:40 MDT - Msg ID: 94767)

Clinkity Clack

If you miss the train I'm on, then you'll know that I am gone..la de da, da da de da,...500 dollars. If you recognize the lyrics then you too are probably "older than dirt". Lets try another. I think I can I think I can. Ring any bells out there?? Heres the point. The gold train while oft abused by the "spurts" sitting in towers on Fall St has been gathering steam for the past year. Dont let some of the sounds of gears and wheels in need of oil dissuade you. The fact she needs a new coat of paint steers some away from taking the ride. But the steady drone of the clinkity clack means the old gal is making progress, slow, steady, and ever upward.
Get your golden ticket today. ALL ABOARD!

a nation of one

(01/17/2003; 10:11:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94768)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=5&t=c&a=12
Take a look at the small red line. Then go back and view the past twelve hours. You can see that unless there is significant new selling right away, it is already determined that the red line will go up. People who trade for a living know this. When the turn is clear, they will think that is a buy signal. There are only two things that can happen. Either the red line will cross into the range where gold is presently trading, with new selling occurring and POG going lower, or more new buying will occur, and POG will go higher. Although it is possible for POG to go lower due to new selling, that doesn't seem likely now, since most sellers have now sold. Minor buying has increased a little, and that will cause the red line to move higher. When it does, more buying will occur. POG should jump.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/17/2003; 10:13:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94769)

International clients: Please take note of our NEW toll free Int'l phone numbers

http://www.usagold.com/phone.html
Implemented to help us serve you better.

Give them a spin and let us help you with your next gold order.

a nation of one

(01/17/2003; 10:17:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94770)

again,...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=5&t=c&a=12
Significant new selling has occurred. If the red line is to be made to go lower, whoever is selling will have to sell more.

Caradoc

(01/17/2003; 10:22:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94771)

Over the next year or so....

Ever take a volleyball to the deep end of the pool and let it go? Anybody who has done that won't be expecting gold to gently rise to a proper level somewhere between $570 and $850. Thanks to fear and greed, it will "pop out of the water" with a certain amount of momentum (determined by how deeply it was held before being released) and go to an illogical height before dropping back to its proper level.

But swimming pools aren't deep enough to provide an analogy for the decades-long supression of gold. Think more in terms of inflating a volleyball aboard a submarine and letting it go from a depth of two or three hundred feet. Then -- to really appreciate what's about to happen, how high gold is really going to go -- review some of the more thorough posts on this forum and realize that while the submarine was below the surface of the water several things have happened that amount to melting the icecaps and raising the water level a couple thousand feet. That volleyball will break through the surface at a level a lot higher than even gold afficianados expect. And with a lot of upward momentum.

Because the dollar (or whatever it'll be called) will be priced in terms of gold rather than the other way around, it would be easier to predict the price of gold in terms of something real like loaves of bread or pounds of copper. In terms of today's dollars, call it somewhere between $3,500 and $7,000 per ounce with an temporary fear-and-greed driven pop to some higher number.

Around The Corner

(01/17/2003; 10:31:16 MDT - Msg ID: 94772)

Preemption

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22374-2002Jun9.htmlLest we forget...
_____________________________________

Bush Developing Military Policy Of Striking First
New Doctrine Addresses Terrorism

By Thomas E. Ricks and Vernon Loeb
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, June 10, 2002; Page A01

The Bush administration is developing a new strategic doctrine that moves away from the Cold War pillars of containment and deterrence toward a policy that supports preemptive attacks against terrorists and hostile states with chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.

The new doctrine will be laid out by President Bush's National Security Council as part of the administration's first "National Security Strategy" being drafted for release by early this fall, senior officials said.

One senior official said the document, without abandoning containment and deterrence, will for the first time add "preemption" and "defensive intervention" as formal options for striking at hostile nations or groups that appear determined to use weapons of mass destruction against the United States.

Bush hinted at the new doctrine in his State of the Union address in January, when he labeled Iraq, Iran and North Korea an "axis of evil" and warned that he would not allow them to threaten the United States with weapons of mass destruction. The president articulated the doctrine for the first time June 1 in a commencement address at West Point.

By adopting the doctrine as part of its formal national security strategy, the administration will compel the U.S. military and intelligence community to implement some of the biggest changes in their histories, officials said. That is already touching off heated debates within the administration and among defense commentators about what changes need to be made and whether a doctrine of preemption is realistic.

But there is general agreement that adopting a preemption doctrine would be a radical shift from the half-century-old policies of deterrence and containment that were built around the notion that an adversary would not attack the United States because it would provoke a certain, overwhelming retaliatory strike.

Administration officials formulating the new doctrine said the United States has been forced to move beyond deterrence since Sept. 11 because of the threat posed by terrorist groups and hostile states supporting them. "The nature of the enemy has changed, the nature of the threat has changed, and so the response has to change," said a senior official, noting that terrorists "have no territory to defend. . . . It's not clear how one would deter an attack like we experienced."

The administration's embrace of the new doctrine has triggered an intense debate inside the Pentagon and among military strategists about the feasibility and wisdom of preemptive strikes against shadowy terrorist networks or weapons storage facilities.

It has aroused concern within NATO as well. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld told the United States' 18 NATO allies in Brussels last Thursday that the alliance could no longer wait for "absolute proof" before acting against terrorist groups or threatening countries with chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.

NATO Secretary General George Robertson, reacting to Rumsfeld's remarks, said NATO remained a defensive alliance. He added, "We do not go out looking for problems to solve."

Some defense analysts said preemption carries the risk of causing a crisis to escalate quickly by increasing pressure on both sides to act sooner rather than later -- forcing them, in the parlance of the nuclear chess game, to "use it or lose it."

"Preemption is attractive on the surface," said defense analyst Harlan Ullman. But he added: "As one gets deeper, it gets more and more complicated and dangerous."

Critics also note that a botched attack that blew chemicals, biological spores or radioactive material into the atmosphere would risk killing thousands of people, not only in the target nation, but in neighboring countries.

Even proponents of preemption inside and outside the government concede that this more aggressive strategic doctrine requires far better and far different intelligence than the U.S. government gathers -- at a time when the abilities of the CIA and the FBI to fulfill their current duties are under scrutiny.

Michele Flournoy, a former Pentagon proliferation expert now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that to be effective, the United States will need to strike preemptively before a crisis erupts to destroy an adversary's weapons stockpile. Otherwise, she said, the adversary could erect defenses to protect those weapons, or simply disperse them.

But Flournoy said she favors moving toward a doctrine of preemption given the proliferation of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons among states supporting terrorists. She said the policy may offer the best of a series of bad choices.

"In some cases, preemptive strikes against an adversary's [weapons of mass destruction] capabilities may be the best or only option we have to avert a catastrophic attack against the United States," she said.

Under the doctrine, nuclear first strikes would be considered weapons of last resort, especially against biological weapons that can be best destroyed by sustained exposure to the high heat of a nuclear blast, Pentagon officials said. But the focus of the effort is finding new ways of using conventional weapons to detect and destroy weapons arsenals, and especially the missiles used to deliver them.

To do that, the Pentagon is studying how to launch "no warning" raids that go far beyond quick airstrikes. The key tool to execute that mission is a new "Joint Stealth Task Force" that pulls in the least detectable elements of every part of the armed forces, including radar-evading aircraft, Special Operations troops and ballistic submarines being converted to carry those troops and to launch cruise missiles.

Beyond changes in weapons, doctrine and organization, Rumsfeld and his top aides are trying to alter the U.S. military mind-set. "Preemption . . . runs completely against U.S. political and strategic culture," defense expert Frank Hoffman said in an essay published this year by the Center for Defense Information.

In the past, the United States has viewed surprise or "sneak" attacks as dishonorable, the kind of thing inflicted on the American people, not initiated by them, analysts have noted.

One senior defense official responded that 21st century security threats can no longer be assessed in terms of the past. "In the world in which we live, it's not enough to deter," the official said. "You need more capability, more flexibility, more nuanced options and choices."

Defense scientists and war planners are hard at work developing new weapons and capabilities to give Bush "options different than those he may have had in the past," the official said.

At the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, a $1.1 billion defense agency created in 1998 to counter the threat of weapons of mass destruction, scientists are studying how to attack and destroy hardened and deeply buried bunkers containing chemical, biological and radiological weapons with advanced conventional bombs, low-yield nuclear devices and even high-yield nuclear weapons.

"There was a time during which we really didn't know what phase we were in, so we called it the 'post-Cold War phase,' " said Stephen M. Younger, the agency's director. "And it wasn't clear what kind of weapons we were going to need for the conflicts of the future. September 11 clarified that. And we are getting a better understanding of the types [of threat] we may face in the future and the types of weaponry that will be required [to counter] them."

Younger said his agency is working on advanced conventional explosives with hardened warheads that could penetrate underground concrete bunkers and destroy biological agents with a sustained level of extremely high heat.

"We want to use the minimum force to achieve the military objective, if at all possible, with a conventional weapon," Younger said. "We do not want to cross the nuclear threshold unless it is an example of extreme national emergency."

But there are some bunkers that are "so incredibly hard," Younger said, "that they do require high-yield nuclear weapons." Low-yield nuclear warheads could be useful in certain scenarios, he said, but they run the risk of spreading biological agents across the countryside.

Rumsfeld's Nuclear Posture Review, completed at the end of last year, stated that "new capabilities must be developed to defeat emerging threats such as hard and deeply buried targets." It also said "several nuclear weapons options" that could be useful in attacking such facilities include "improved earth penetrating weapons."

But senior administration officials said the tactical use of nuclear weapons is being studied, not actively contemplated. "There is no one anxious to think about the employment of tactical nuclear weapons," a senior defense official said. "That's not what we are trying to do."

What the Pentagon is most focused on, the official said, is a method of "advanced conventional strike."

Inside the Pentagon, some officials suspect that the new doctrine may be acted upon sooner rather than later.

"I think the president is trying to get the American people ready for some kind of preemptive move" against Iraq, said a Pentagon consultant. He said it would not necessarily be against Iraqi weapons sites but might instead involve a seizure of Iraqi oil fields.

But a senior administration official dismissed the idea of a "bolt from the blue" attack on Iraq. "I want to caution that [the president] was not making an announcement about imminent action" in his West Point address, the official said. "Some people have quite frankly said, 'Oh, this must have been about Iraq.' He was not making an announcement about imminent action, but this was a doctrinal statement."

Rumsfeld may have captured this situation best when he declined to discuss preemption last week. Asked in an interview whether the U.S. government is contemplating preemptive moves against other nations' weapons of mass destruction, he replied: "Why would anyone answer that question if they were contemplating it?"

� 2002 The Washington Post Company

Fair Use for Educational Purposes

Buy Gold and Silver...and be quick about it.

ATC

Truthcaster

(01/17/2003; 10:32:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94773)

Golds Move

Wow I sure was happy to see the 7 dollar pop
in gold yesterday. I know I'm a little late on this
but I was plowing snow here in Nebraska I didn't know
it move like that until this morning when I got up
It's down about 2.00 now which guessing that's after the
big move up yesterday. The story here is the dollar which
I think is driving gold more than the war talks or stocks
right now. I'm waiting to see if the dollar falls below
100 it really don't have far to go but I really think
we won't see it today. Maybe next week.

sector

(01/17/2003; 10:33:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94774)

@ jon Kosares -- Thanks Again Guys!

Those Fortunas are beautiful.eom

a nation of one

(01/17/2003; 10:34:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94775)

yes,

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=5&t=c&a=12
I know I can, I know I can. I can still feel my mother's warmth as she read me that. That was a great book. The little train that could. The 12 hour moving average will reach 357 within the hour. I will reach 102 if given the chance.

sector

(01/17/2003; 10:41:16 MDT - Msg ID: 94776)

The Dollar [Commonly listed] and the Major Currency Dollar Index

It's already way below 100Last night the MCDI was 96.36.

Tonight it will probably break 96.

That will cause a huge spike upward in the Dollar Index Value of Gold which is the per-ounce cost of selling gold to the central banks as the cbs [G-10] denominate gold in dollars [Against the PM fix].

The bad guys are bleeding gold.

No wonder Bill McDonough is resigning as New York Fed Chairman, whoever takes over will have some 'splainin to do when gold really gets moving.

a nation of one

(01/17/2003; 10:46:16 MDT - Msg ID: 94777)

Re: preemptive strikes

The United States of America was founded by people who believed that it is better to mistakenly let some guilty go unpunished than to mistakenly punish some who are not guilty. The choice has to be made, because in order to enact any such related policy, one extreme or the other will necessarily occur. Our nation has now embarked on a tacit course of action which assumes just the reverse. It is a policy alien to my belief. It appears that from now on, the U.S. government will conduct itself in accordance with a policy that assumes it is wiser to mistakenly punish some who are not guilty, than to mistakenly allow some who are guilty go unpunished. Such a course is not a hallmark of wisdom, as many seem to think that it is. Rather, it is based on fear and incapacity, and on the presumption of a privilege to commit abuse, and to be excused from the consequences of doing so. In my opinion, being a human being requires a higher standard than that.

Caradoc

(01/17/2003; 10:49:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94778)

****750****

It will take more than 2 weeks for the whole house of cards to collapse and take gold to however many thousands of USD per ounce, but if it begins to happen between now and the end of the month I may win a coin unless somebody agrees with my post 94771 below and outsmarts me by predicting $751.

Somehow, I suspect that if I lose the contest because I guessed too low, it won't bother me a whole lot.

miner49er

(01/17/2003; 10:56:45 MDT - Msg ID: 94779)

USAGold @ 94766 - Why buy from CPM?

As I have said several times before on the forum, I'll say again, here:

I have bought from a few different firms in the past. All others have left me feeling either like I was dealing with used-car salesmen, or wandering lost in some superstore.

With CPM, I am absolutely 100% certain that its proprietors both KNOW about and BELIEVE in the product they sell. It is their life and their passion. And the prices are excellent!

If you are looking for a place to buy gold, or any of the following apply to you:

a) You are tired of having to wrestle with some gold-desk hireling, who can't wait to get you off the phone.
b) You are made to feel stupid for buying the metal, as some condescending salesperson, who doesn't believe in their product, tries to convince you to buy their more "sophisticated" wares.
c) You are made to feel stupid for buying the metal, as some sheister salesperson, who also doesn't believe in their product, tries to convince you to buy more just to get the commission.
d) You are tired of paying exorbitant prices.

Then you have found what you are looking for RIGHT HERE.

Give the folks at Centennial a call today. (I am not an employee, agent, or have any interest in CPM, whatsoever -- I just know a good relationship, when I come across one!)

miner

(01/17/2003; 11:16:06 MDT - Msg ID: 94780)

Thanks Sector and Miner. . .

It's awfully nice of you guys to give us some recognition. We are happy to have you as clients -- important ones at that!

a nation of one

(01/17/2003; 11:17:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94781)

always the unforeseen

One thing that is nice about being able to post on a forum like this is that if you make a fool of yourself, nobody tries to make you feel terribly humiliated.

Waverider

(01/17/2003; 11:21:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94782)

A nation of one

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlBut why is POG so flat - did trading stop before the close - is that possible?

Mr Gresham

(01/17/2003; 11:24:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94783)

El Gordo: China

Thanks for bringing the news on China's markets (and all your other news-gathering efforts!) -- I woke up this morning wondering if we'd hear more on their progress, although I'm sure it's not going to come through at the detail level we might like. I would guess that there are not too many small sellers bringing their coins in to unload as yet, so it's probably just a one-way market at this point. (I wonder if Chinese holders of "old gold" feel safe brining them in as yet?)

LimitUp

(01/17/2003; 11:36:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94784)

Put Your Mouth Where Your Money Is

In the last year I have talked friends and relatives into purchasing over $75,000 in bullion gold and silver. I challenge those who read this forum to do the same. Persistence is necessary but soon you will be their HERO. Incidentally, most of these purchases were done at Centennial. Why because Centennial is a pleasure to do business with. I do not work for or have any financial interest in Centennial. GOT GOLD?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/17/2003; 11:37:14 MDT - Msg ID: 94785)

Real gold, real easy. Delivered to your door.

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what the weekend will bring.

Call USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals
(800) 869-5115

Mr Gresham

(01/17/2003; 11:47:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94787)

Operative, Caradoc: Volleyball

Operative: Choo-Choo Charlie could never have said it so well! "This train she's bound for glory" sang Woody Guthrie. (I'm not THAT old, but these last few years have seemed like a century in passing.)

Caradoc: Great analogy. And now we're even seeing the hesitation in the PM stocks, whose potential buyers are thinking less about leverage on their investment, than about the DOUBLE manipulation (metals AND shorting of limited supplies of stocks) that can chew up their profits. And a few of them, if they've been reading the TRAIL here, wonder about eventual gov grabs of the mines. Looks like they're worried, from the price action anyway. (But that might just result in an appropriate discounted buy-in levels? With you making your bets purely on the politics going forward...)

The futures and options must be following the actual POG now, but I haven't looked at or heard any comment about the outlying dates discounting the vulnerability of paper gold holdings.

All-in-all, it is the market at its largest level calculating the risk/reward plays on gold in all its varieties, and I think more people are shifting TOWARD that view of a hyperbolic arc upward (your Volleyball image) than toward its retracing to 320.

I think more and more are doing that R/R on physical and coming up with double digit positive ratios, rather than the 1:1 of bonds or the negatives of Dow stocks.

sector

(01/17/2003; 11:47:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94788)

@ a nation of one -- your views are refreshing...

...especially concerning the new "Rogue Nation" status......that George Bush has inaugurated for the US as it prepars to prey upon Iraq.

It's ONE thing to arm-wave and saber-rattle and bully-rush at Iraq's borders. It's quite another to actually make a grab for the oil in the South while killing tens of thousands of culturally and racially different people.

The nation can never go back, once that line has been crossed.

TownCrier

(01/17/2003; 12:02:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94790)

Gandalf, here is the direct link to the price-guessing prize

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/SwissConf.html
Try to win one... or buy a box of them outright.

R.

GoldnSilver2002

(01/17/2003; 12:14:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94791)

**** $383.50 *********

At some point there will be a short covering rally in the PM stocks,as the master p.o.g drags their profits ever higher.For Gold there are simply too many large events that can happen.Consider the world today,japan("we are in an emergency crisis now"),Brazil(set to default on IMF),Argentina,middle east tensions,iraq,north korea,china(shanghai exchange cant fill demand at these prices),Canadian govt sold out of gold,uk half gold gone,portugal 70 percent sold out,venezuala(no more oil),down jones crashing,germany(record unemployment),lurking energy crisis,wall st scandals,record bankrupcies,crashing dollar,terrorism,war,record deficits,JPM bankers arrested.Now we just need the unexpected.Gold and silver stocks will go up,but at some point it would be wise to stock up on some physical.Gold will crack this month,the mounting pressure is too great and only the stupid,insane or criminal would sell gold now.

***** 383.50 *******

harryo

(01/17/2003; 12:19:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94792)

gold contest

******274.6******
One month ago I would not have dreamed of posting this high a price of gold. Things change. Sometimes for the better. The dollar index looks to fall below 100 very soon. The price of gold seems to rise as the dollar falls. The many years of negative balance of payments, the printing of more and more dollars with nothing to back them, the stock markets dropping from their vastly overinflated values to only inflated values, all these factors work to awaken investors to the value of gold.

Gandalf the White

(01/17/2003; 12:26:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94793)

Attention Sir Harryo !!! HELP !!!

harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 94792)
gold contest
******274.6******
=====
PLEASE REAFFIRM the number, Sir Harryo !
Are my old eyes playing a trick on me ?
Tks
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/17/2003; 12:32:42 MDT - Msg ID: 94794)

Thanks for asking that QUESTION, Lady Waverider !!!

Waverider (01/17/03; 11:21:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 94782)
===
But why is POG so flat - did trading stop before the close - is that possible?
===
YES, Lady Waverider, it appears that the normal COMEX GOLD pit close of 1:30 NY time, HAPPENED a little earlier today ! The Hobbits are confuzzed a little and hoping that someone can explain this occurance !
<;-)

luckypierre

(01/17/2003; 12:34:00 MDT - Msg ID: 94795)

**** 363.00 ****

Mostly consolidation with a slight upward movement, to explode in March when it becomes apparent the war is bogging down.

slingshot

(01/17/2003; 12:42:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94796)

********* 369.2*********

I still believe the event to shake the POG will be a Non-Event. Example. Hey John, did you see the stock market took a nose dive today? Yeah, it will bounce back. I'm in it for the long haul. Hey John, I see company A is laying people off. How is your job. Its fine Joe. I have a lot of seniority in the company. Hey John, think the war will be a long one in the ME. Naw, wrap in up in a couple of weeks.
It is Johns Mindset that has to change. We can see the precursers to a failing global market as it is now. Threat of war and terrorism has not move the POG substantialy in major increments. Like a limit up day. So inkeeping with the Herd mentality,one day the herd will all of a sudden figure out by themselves that the saving of wealth as per'stocks to bonds to treasuries to real estate is not working. Just Gold. John wakes up to, I could of had a V-8 kind of thought. Will he have enough FIAT to save himself and will there be any to buy?

I think I am weirding out.
Slingshot-----------------------<>

TownCrier

(01/17/2003; 12:54:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94797)

Gandalf, Waverider: Today's early flat line on gold price

Saw your inquiry. Comex closed early today (noon New York time) ahead of the Martin Luther King Holiday weekend.

No intrigue, just lazy traders.

R.

The Hoople

(01/17/2003; 13:10:11 MDT - Msg ID: 94798)

*** $419.4 ***

Deciding a POG nearly 12 months forward is basically deciding to what degree between now and then TSHTF. Some days I can wake up and argue the POG hundreds of $ higher than my guess. No question at some point the end game of short sales, BB leasing, derivatives, and production shortfall will make gold a tsunami against the dollar shore.I remember in the equity bubble days the old saw about rising tides lifting all boats. Gold's tide will sink many paper fiat boats along the way. Ebb and flow, everything is ebb and flow.

otish mountain

(01/17/2003; 13:12:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94799)

@Clink Post# 94748

Your post refers that Goldfields tried to buy a significant amount of physical a few months back.The miner which made news a few months ago on that subject was Gold Corp as far as I know.

knotakare

(01/17/2003; 13:17:42 MDT - Msg ID: 94800)

*************387.5********

I'm headed out to Southwest Colorado tonight for a little fun on the slopes. This will give me something to look forward to when I get home; it would be great to win. Thanks to everyone of their insights this past 2 weeks. And thanks to our hosts for this great website.

glennh10

(01/17/2003; 14:11:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94802)

Re: Mint drops restrictions on American Eagles

http://www.coinworld.com/news/012703/News-3.aspThe requirement that dealers purchase (2) 2002 silver eagles for every (3) 2003 coins purchased was dropped.
According to the Coin World article, the mint expressed that "this was in the best interest of the program and our customers."

They apparently had around 1.5 million unsold 2002 coins. Another possible reason for rescinding (besides wanting to please their customers) might be due to a silver squeeze. They might rather want to hold on to that 1.5 million ounces.

Who knows...just idle speculation.

sector

(01/17/2003; 14:11:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94803)

U.S., Turkey Discuss Iraq Strike Options

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESSFiled at 2:07 p.m. ET

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) -- Facing stiff Turkish resistance, the United States may scale back its demand to base tens of thousands of soldiers in Turkey for a possible strike against Iraq, a Western diplomat said Friday.

Washington had reportedly considered deploying up to 80,000 soldiers in Turkey for a potential northern strike that, along with a southern thrust from the Gulf, would leave Iraqi President Saddam Hussein surrounded.

But Turkey's government has balked at the large deployment. Turkish leaders have repeatedly pointed to polls that show 80 percent of the country is against any Iraq war.

A Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that U.S. and Turkish negotiators are now considering a smaller force. Turkish media have reported it would involve between 15,000 and 20,000 troops.

U.S. Ambassador Robert Pearson met with Turkish legislators Friday.

``We look forward to moving toward a mutually acceptable solution,'' Pearson said. ``I am confident that we will find an acceptable solution to these issues.''

He gave no details.

Accepting foreign troops is an extremely sensitive issue in Turkey. The country was divided and occupied by foreign countries after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. The presence of foreign soldiers on Turkish soil is an emotional issue.

Turkey and Iraq also share the Islamic faith and Iraq was part of the Ottoman Empire before World War I.

Turkey ``has deep historic relations with the people of Iraq, is a neighbor of Iraq and because of its regional position, there will be limits to the support Turkey can consider supplying to an operation,'' presidential spokesman Tacan Ildem said Friday.

He spoke after a meeting on Iraq between President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, Prime Minister Abdullah Gul and the head of the Turkish army, Gen. Hilmi Ozkok.

Last week, Turkey granted permission to 150 U.S. inspectors to examine Turkish bases for possible deployment, but that decision came more than a month after the request was made. The inspectors began work Monday.

Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, was expected in Turkey for a Monday meeting on the bases with Ozkok.

Washington was keen to begin the inspections quickly because many of the bases will have to be expanded or upgraded. The United States is expected to spend up to $200 million on base renovations.

Turkey leaders also fear instability on their border if there is a conflict and international investors say economic losses could reach $4-$10 billion.

Turkish leaders have repeatedly called for a peaceful solution to the Iraq standoff.

``Peaceful means still have not been exhausted entirely and all sides concerned must give peace a chance,'' Ildem said.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Note the US words..."We look forward..." That is diplo-speak for "We ain't got nuttin now and maybe we can win the troupe lottery tomorrow".

Without a northern base of troupe operations, there is no Kurdish contingent in a putative Iraq war. No Kurds, no US Kurdish puppets.

See, the Turks have a veto over the Kurds because they have already moved two full heavy armor divisions into Iraq to preempt a Kurdish/US Spec Ops team and mainly to secure the Northern Iraq oil fields in Kirkuk and Mosul. Turkish envoys have already met with Saddam and the Saudis.

A reasonable guess is that the Turks offered a 50/50 split of oil revenues to take defensive military positions in the Northern provinces of Iraq and cut the hated Kurds out of the picture. The Turks are now much closer to Baghdad than a US amphib task force from the South.

This move has made the "oil 'vision' thing" far more visible in that the US will take Basra and the rich oil fields there but probably nothing else. So there the US will be in the South saying the US has no interest in Iraq's oil as they sit on the oil.

Devastating Baghdad would be futile as it would mostly kill non-combatants as well as destroy a good part of the architecture. All this General McCaffery propaganda "We'll come in at night, hit them with 2,000 lb. bombs etc. is ridiculous. Precision-guided bombs in a house-to-house street fight involving at least 300,000 Iraqi soldiers and an unknown number of now heavily armed and undoubtedly motivated civilians?

Recall that McCaffery was the guy that said there wasn't a single Y2K computer failure...not even one. He had the control center to prove it. Meanwhile, there were three dozen refinery fires in a two month period just before and after Y2K. Must have been the famed government tooth fairy again.

Without a Northern front the US is hamstrung. We sure won't make it to Baghdad if the Turks move their two divsions in and then there's the Russians who just might land an airgroup or two to "Secure" certain oil assets. They were prominent in Afghanistan too.

What a country.

Clink!

(01/17/2003; 14:20:00 MDT - Msg ID: 94804)

@otish mountain

You are right - I stand corrected.

miner49er

(01/17/2003; 14:46:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94805)

**** $378.8 ****

One of the next important developments in the gold market will be when suppliers of the metal begin to recognize an advantage to holding inventory, instead of selling it on the basis of the current market price -- as currently reckoned by the dollar based contract market axis. In a macro sense this is simply saying supply will be insufficient to meet demand at price X, and doesn't seem very startling because of its generality. What should be observed is the practical out-working of this in a micro perspective.

The past few years have seen a buyer's market in gold, as relatively low demand at the general public level had persuaded many holders of gold to dump their stale holdings in order to put their capital where the momentum was. Notwithstanding that just the opposite is occurring now, in that equities are now stale, and gold is again perceived as a momentum play, there is more to it than just saying that gold is in a seller's market. In fact, that would do an utter disservice to the overall dynamics.

It is even more than simply recognizing a growing divergence between spot gold as quoted, and the price one actually pays for bullion, for instance. This type of comparison can indicate short supply, and a disconnect with the overall price discovery mechanism, but doesn't tell us anything about the state of the mechanism, itself. If this is our only clue, then we don't know that the contract pricing derivation of a spot price won't again converge, and that an anomalous trend is just that -- anomalous. Suppliers may still be convinced of the validity of the current means of price discovery, but are simply unable to fill demand for some period based on that price.

This is also different than just saying demand is outpacing supply, as this too does not tell us about the quality of the current pricing mechanism, and that any long term upward shift in demand may be accommodated within the current framework in a matter of time. What is still significant in this scenario, is that there is still confidence in the current price discovery process.

Drilling down to the micro level, and observing a shift on the part of suppliers to forego a sale today, in hope of a sale tomorrow for a better price, would be a critical change in market outlook. This would mean perceptions were changing as sellers were beginning to look elsewhere for clues for the appropriate price at which to sell their product. This will call into question the credibility of the contract marketplace. Since the largest segment of the contract arena is comprised of commercial players, whose elaborate hedging strategies vitally depend on a certain reliable capacity of market performance, any faltering here, and the game is over.

The signs of this will NOT be just when suppliers begin increasing premiums over the daily quotes. Rather the signs will be when they grow unsure about the quotes altogether, and begin holding back supply until they find a new compass by which to assess a fair market price for you and me, the buyers. This tacit invalidation of the contract pricing mechanism will discredit the entire market causing contract prices to plummet (likely after some wrenching volatility), and the settled physical gold price to become temporarily untethered, with no one knowing just how to price it. Supply will dry up, and for a while the market will be very thin (large, inconsistent and fluctuating spreads, or no offer at all) until everyone gets their bearings again. Then when business does return to something like normal, expect the price to be very, very different...

Gold - get you some, while there's still some left...

miner

Black Blade

(01/17/2003; 14:47:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94806)

Dollar Falls for 4th Day vs Euro Amid U.S. Economy Concerns

Gandalf the White

(01/17/2003; 15:15:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94807)

Thanks T. C. ----- It just makes next week more exciting !! <;-)

TownCrier (01/17/03; 12:54:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 94797)
Gandalf, Waverider: Today's early flat line on gold price
Saw your inquiry. Comex closed early today (noon New York time) ahead of the Martin Luther King Holiday weekend.
No intrigue, just lazy traders.
R.
===
BUT did you see the PAPER fly in the SHORT Session !
WOWSERS ! HIGH Volume
<;-)

glennh10

(01/17/2003; 15:46:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94808)

Re: Remaining 90% Silver Coin

"The Big Silver Melt", a 1983 book by Henry A. Merton recounts the adventures of a man who was a "burner", one who accumulated and melted 90% silver coin (dimes quarters, halves) during the mid-late 1960's. At the back of the book, Merton provides estimates of quantites of coins that survived the melting, by date and mint mark. In many cases, as few as 25% of many date/mint mark varieties remained (whether this figure refers to circa 1968, when his melting operation ceased, or 1983, when the book was published, I don't know).

I have since heard that perhaps as little as 10% of this coin remains today. Does anyone know any more about this?

Thanks.

Black Blade

(01/17/2003; 16:12:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94809)

Re: Waverider, Gandy, etc. - Trade Session

I missed this one too. I had expected that once all the excitement over expiry had eased we could have seen the usual late day rally that follows. I never thought about the "lazy traders" as Randy points out. ;-) I probably should have considered the possibility but MLK day isn't exactly on my radar when I think of holidays. Oh well, live and learn. Anyway now that expiry is out of the way and as globally the kettle heats up we may see a lot of excitement in the PM markets next week.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!

Mr. Bill

(01/17/2003; 16:54:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94810)

@glennh10 msg#: 94808 � more poppycock

Never happened. Aesop would be proud of this fable. In order for this to be true, all of the silver refined in the US since 1967, would have had to have been coins. And all of those little old ladies would still have their tea pots.

CoBra(too)

(01/17/2003; 16:58:07 MDT - Msg ID: 94811)

@ Miner49er

Quite an intriguing essay - as it reminds me of the sage words of A/FOA some years back.

... Finding a new compass by which to assess a fair market price for you and me ... and that's probably the crux of the matter as the only lasting compass to fair market value is and was forever - Gold!

... And since the only real compass and barometer for fiat currencies historically was Gold only (Silver too) - and we know it has worked - we've been essentially rudderless floating through time and space. The unbelieveable gyrations of the main world currencies have been greater than 50% over a few years, since. A phenomenon we can again observe today.

The introduction of Fiat based on trust only, was a new concept. The founding of the BIS, as the advent of the IMF and WB and the Bretton Woods Agreement - which already meant a persiflage to the US Constitutions meaning - and its SDR's as paper lending facilities of last resort - has in all reality destroyed the backing of any currency by more than vague promises.

As we don't know where we might stand at a beginning inter-regnum of Fiat - probably competitive de-valuations - compass and rudder-less in a churning sea of ever more paper machinations - the only anchor in this turmoil will be Gold again. Not-withstanding the recent performance of the euro vs the US$ - another sign of the times.

Probably Albert Einstein's Theory of Relativity holds a clue to our predicament? Though, in absolute terms only Gold held true - value! cb2

PS: Pretty late for philosophy ... so take it as a venting...

since 1971 we've had a

Gandalf the White

(01/17/2003; 17:05:35 MDT - Msg ID: 94812)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !SECOND UPDATE as of 17:00 MST (Denver) 01/17/03!!

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.
---

THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February �03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 -----

The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old) goldpiece !!
Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin was
Minted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce.
(Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)
---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
(Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003:

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 Settle = $358.1 + $6.9 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a LOW = $350.0
1/17/03 Settle = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a LOW = $355.3 and Sir ROCK is "King of the Hill" !!
===

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines"
LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!!
READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
---
LET the CONTEST CONTINUE !!
<;-)

===
ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

**** $750.0 **** Caradoc (1/17/03; 10:49:20MT - msg#: 94778

**** $419.4 **** The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - msg#: 94798

**** $400.0 **** Sundeck (1/17/03; 04:25:05MT - msg#: 94737

**** $390.0 **** Galerider (01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - msg#: 94724)

**** $387.5 **** knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 94800)

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (1/17/03; 05:12:59MT - msg#: 94738

**** $383.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - msg#: 94791

**** $379.1 **** ha_tey_o (1/17/03; 07:24:56MT - msg#: 94741

**** $378.9 **** erayboy (1/17/03; 03:05:04MT - msg#: 94729
**** $378.8 **** miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - msg#: 94805

**** $378.1 **** a nation of one (01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - msg#: 94720

**** $374.1 **** Slowman (1/17/03; 06:10:05MT - msg#: 94739
**** $374.0 **** Zhisheng (1/17/03; 09:53:34MT - msg#: 94762

**** $372.0 **** OZ (1/17/03; 02:14:25MT - msg#: 94727

**** $370.5 **** VanRip (1/17/03; 07:59:23MT - msg#: 94747

**** $369.2 **** slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - msg#: 94796

**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750

**** $367.4 **** Kagalaska (01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - msg#: 94721

**** $364.2 **** Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - msg#: 94755

**** $363.0 **** luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - msg#: 94795

**** $348.0 **** Topaz (1/17/03; 03:06:48MT - msg#: 94730

**** $274.6 **** harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - msg#: 94792

===

INVALID ENTRIES
---
NONE !!!!!!
===
Have a GREAT GOLDEN Weekend ALL !
<;-)

misetich

(01/17/2003; 17:55:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94813)

China The Fastest-Growing Oil Consumer In 2002, IEA Says

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030117/0708000204_2.htmlSnip:

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- The International Energy Agency has upped its 2002 growth forecast for oil demand in China, saying it was likely the fastest-growing consumer of oil last year.
In its monthly oil market report, the agency raised its average demand growth estimate for 2002 by 20,000 barrels a day, or 5.7%, to 280,000 b/d, .
********
Misetich

Oil demand is zooming in China - How high will oil prices rise in Euros/US $ in coming years?

How will this affect gold prices in years to come?

Got gold?

The Invisible Hand

(01/17/2003; 18:13:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94814)

Dollar set to prolong its descent for months

http://www.iht.com/articles/83740.htmlrandom snippets:

The dollar is in a medium-term bear market and this could persist for some time," said Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London. "Though it isn't our central forecast for now, the risks of a more dramatic dollar collapse have certainly risen."
�
The euro's gains may not reflect the virtues of the single currency, or the Continental economy, as much as a general weakness in the dollar. While the dollar fell 15 percent against the euro last year, it also lost 10 percent against the yen. The struggling Japanese economy and other big Asian exporters will have a hard time absorbing further weakness in the dollar.
�.
"I believe the European officials will let the euro rise until it really hurts," said Stephen Jen, chief currency economist at Morgan Stanley.
Jen says Washington, too, might accept a slight further weakening in the dollar. U.S. manufacturers complained about the strength of the currency as the economy slowed since March 2000, saying it hurt their export competitiveness. And while President George W. Bush's choice to head the Treasury, John Snow, has said nothing so far about the "strong dollar" policy endorsed by his predecessors, many analysts maintain that he will acquiesce quietly as the currency slowly drifts lower.
�
===
Who told us so?

misetich

(01/17/2003; 18:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94815)

**** $403.50 ****

Disaccord between US hawks and the "rest of the world" on resolving the terrorist threat.

Currently this disaccord has created anxiety - and fear - hence the rise in gold prices in US $

The continuation of this disaccord (confrontation) - read - Germany, Saudi Arabia- Turkey - Russia - France- China - Iran - Venezuela - Brazil and Opec vs US and British hawks will create an atompshere of uncertainty in the marketplace - further nervousness and fear as each player uses whatever lever they have in their disposal to achieve their means.

The gold lever has been pulled and the rocket launcher is ready - the fuse is lit

tick..tick..tick

Dollar Bill

(01/17/2003; 18:30:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94816)

Sticking it to Poles

"The American government has subsidized Poland buying 48 F-16 fighters from Lockheed. The terms are a low-interest loan for $3.8 billion and, and this is where we find out that selling fighter aircraft is the same as selling cars, the contract allows for interest-only, no-principal payments until 2011! So Poland gets 48 factory-fresh, still in the carton aircraft for a measly, what? $70 million a year? No wonder the European fighter manufacturers are testy!

And am I supposed to think that in 2011, eight long years from now, the Poles are going to gladly pony up the $3.8 billion in principal for some old, used airplanes? Now, as I remember from my grade-school joke days, these are the guys who are supposed to have installed a screen door on a submarine, but in real life they are going to be buying airplanes at some multiple of what they are worth, bluebook-wise?"
Mogumbo Guru

R Powell

(01/17/2003; 18:36:00 MDT - Msg ID: 94817)

Glennh10

Coin Melt Good question. I have never seen any numbers or even quesstimates of the quanity (percentage of total minted or weight) of coins lost to melt. The government simply stopped using silver in coins but never tried to recall silver coins as they did with paper "silver certificate" bills. I would guess that the answer to your question might best be filed under the category of both unknown and unknowable. Does anyone have any infomation? Considering that the purchasing power of the dollar was much greater in the 1970s and early 1980s when/and the price of silver spiked higher, might we assume that a great amount of coins were lost to melt?
What remains of these silver coins may be those that were in the best condition and set aside for numismatic value. Both the amount of silver used yearly for coins and the amount of silver recovered from "scrap" or recycled sources is very small compared to the total demand and the supply trying to feed that demand.

Cavan Man suggested (thanks) "Fooled by Randomness" for my books-to-read list and now you have added another, thanks! I think Cavan Man can easily guess which one I'll read first as I've always been fascinated by the continuing lack of price rationing in silver in spite of conditions that usually drive prices higher. Of all markets, silver may have the most unknowns and unknowables. Silver, imho, also trades in a fundamental vacuum. It will not surprise me to see the market in total disbelief when reports first appear of physical shortages. Some may not believe a shortage possible and resist this notion enough to short silver right into the teeth of a raging bull market!

Could you give us a brief bookreport? Also, was the book hard to find, as in out of print? In return let me highly recommend "Silver Bulls" by Paul Sarnoff which is out of print but worth looking for. Sarnoff was a trader privy to exactly what happened in the 1979-1980 silver market. Another good out of print book for those interested in currencies is "When Money Dies" by Adam Ferguson, concerning the Weimar Republic currency meltdown.

Being that this is Friday night in the northern hemisphere of the Americas, I feel privileged to shout...
Happy Weekend !!
Rich

The Invisible Hand

(01/17/2003; 18:52:52 MDT - Msg ID: 94818)

Peter Fisher at the Fed, Paul De Grauwe at the ECB?

From the Usagold newsfeed
http://www.iht.com/articles/83753.html Mc donough
Key Greenspan ally to leave New York Fed
SNIP
William McDonough, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the second most important person in the Federal Reserve System, after the chairman, is to retire in July.
�
One of the names to surface immediately was that of Peter Fisher, a senior official in the Treasury Department who ran the New York Fed's open-market operations before joining the Bush administration

http://www.iht.com/articles/83741.html
Belgium seeks ECB post for a bank critic
SNIP
When the ECB acted Dec. 5, de Grauwe said he would have voted for a reduction "long ago."
...
"It would have been desirable to do that six months ago because it was quite obvious then that we were going into a significant slowdown," he said on the day of the reduction. He declined to comment on monetary policy when contacted Thursday.
...
De Grauwe has spoken out against capping inflation at 2 percent, the mainstay of ECB policy. His ideas could influence the bank as it reviews its inflation target and reliance on money-supply data, analysts said

===
compare:

Cytek (11/21/02; 20:01:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 90069)
More Gold Russelling - INFLATE OR DIE

sector (11/21/02; 21:42:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 90075)
Peter Fischer and the Wolf...

Dollar Bill

(01/17/2003; 19:00:19 MDT - Msg ID: 94819)

Aristotle, do you agree with Clink! post # 94748 ?

"...Anyway, things get more expensive, and the poor do not have incomes that keep pace with inflation. That is why we say that the poor pay the full cost of inflation"

Mr. Bill

(01/17/2003; 19:03:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94820)

@R Powell msg#: 94817 and Glennh10 - silver coin scrap

The following info is from this site.

http://www.google.ca/search?q=cache:FSUCA7euP0kC:minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/silver/880498.pdf+silver+scrap+refining++historical+coins&hl=en☆t=6

World fabrication demand exceeded supply from mine production and the recycling of scrap by 3,260 t. Between 1990 and 1997, cumulative silver fabrication demand exceeded mine production by 68,400 t. The gap was filled by recycled silver scrap and draw-down of more than 31,100 t of silver bullion inventories (Silver Institute, 1999, p6).

Total worldwide deficit for the years 1990 to 1997 = 68,400 tons.
Filled from stock = 31,100 tons.
Balance from scrap = 68,400 � 31,100 = 37,300
Average scrap for 8 years = 4662.5 per year

Global recycling of silver from old scrap materials increased by 13% to about 5,940 t. The United States was the largest silver recycler at about 1,730 t, followed by Japan at about 908 t. In the United States, photographic scrap was estimated to have generated 1,000 t of silver, most of which came from spent fixer solution and from X-ray and graphic arts wastes (Silver Institute, 1999, p. 32). This is for 1998.

US refines approximately 30% of world scrap (5940/1730)
Total refined per year in US 5940 * .3 = 1400 tons
Silver from photography is approximately 60% of all scrap (1730/1000)
All other scrap = 40% (1400 * .4) = 560 tons per year
560 * 32000 = 18,000,000 ounces per year for all scrap
Since 1965 or 36 years 36 * 18,000,000 = 648,000,000 ounces.

This is assuming the every bit of scrap other than silver from film was a coin. I don't think so. The total silver used in silver coin production was over 1.5 billion ounces. There has got to be a least a billion ounces of silver coin outstanding just in the US.

steady

(01/17/2003; 19:04:37 MDT - Msg ID: 94821)

the gold bug by edgar allan poe

http://www.dread.net/~finder/beatles/goldbug.htmlsnipit
Ah, if I had only known you were here!" said Legrand, "but it's so long since I saw you; and how could I foresee that you would pay me a visit this very night of all others? As I was coming home I met Lieutenant G- , from the fort, and, very foolishly, I lent him the bug; so it will be impossible for you to see it until morning. Stay here to�night, and I will send Jup down for it at sunrise. It is the loveliest thing in creation!"

"What? - sunrise?"

"Nonsense! no! - the bug. It is of a brilliant gold color - about the size of a large hickory�nut - with two jet black spots near one extremity of the back, and another, somewhat longer, at the other. The antennae are - "

good reading!

Slowman

(01/17/2003; 19:23:52 MDT - Msg ID: 94822)

R Powell / coin melt / to all

Talked to a company yesterday that buys silver/coins for manufacturing. Personally, I sold to them 13 years ago. they would pay full melt for any quantity available being of the 90%, 40%, sterling combinations. They also bought the lower grade foreign for same purposes. Back then they were using 100 bags of silver coins per month. They use to pay you with a company check while you waited in office after weight established.
Now, today, He still buys but from brokers only of which one is my friend and in 50-100,000 dollar deals at a time with the privledge of paying in 60 days. But, now its mostly 1000 oz bars and 40% clad halves. My broker friend will have 25 - 100 bags of silver available most of the time but seems to place them privately. His normal buy price is melt - 100 and sell at melt + 150
I do know that this company use to report to some govt. branch how many bags of silver they melted every month, back then. My guess is today they probably use about 1 1/2 million ounces of silver per month.
Whats freeky is look what happened when a big bullion broker got involved, greed set in and NOW they have to wait 60 days . ENJOY ALL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Max Rabbitz

(01/17/2003; 19:50:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94823)

NAKED SHORTS!

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030116/sfth046_1.htmlSeen running on Wall Street in broad daylight! Mothers cover the eyes of little children. SEC does not care. It would ruin the party.

A snip from the last paragraph:

Grant Atkins, a director of GeneMax Corp. and a representative of other public companies also commented, "The trading system in America allows abusive trading practices to over inflate share ownership in U.S. public companies. The 3-day securities clearing system operated by the NSCC and DTC fails to operate correctly to ensure that a fair marketplace exists to trade U.S. public securities. While the world is watching the U.S. struggle with issues relating to corporate misconduct, and President Bush has in recent months asked corporate America to 'Stop Cooking the Books,' the world has not yet discovered that the U.S. Trading system lacks integrity. The ramifications to Americans is that the U.S. people, through the federal reserve, have inherited the DTC and NSCC, and a system that can cook the books of public company issuers on American Exchanges. What happens when the world finds out that share ownership in American companies is over inflated?

Max: Now you can't even be sure you own the paper. It's nice to have something physical.

Thanks to Sir EastWyck at neighboring castle for heads up.

Malfleur

(01/17/2003; 20:05:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94824)

Gold Mining Shares v. POG

This forum has been most helpful in explaining the forces behind the movement in the POG to a tyro trying to understand this market.

What is not yet clear to me is why my HMY and DROOY are moving in the opposite direction to the POG.

Can anyone explain what's going on?

Bulldog

(01/17/2003; 20:05:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94825)

$396.4 Settlement

The most important event will be the devaluation of the U.S.$.

Gandalf the White

(01/17/2003; 20:10:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94826)

Question to Sir Malfleur !

Sorry, but I can not answer your QUESTION, about the SA miners, BUT, PLEASE tell me what "tyro" means ?
Thanks
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/17/2003; 20:15:00 MDT - Msg ID: 94827)

ANOTHER of those "Beautiful Weeks", BB --- Look at these CHARTS !

http://stockcharts.com/gallery?$GOLDEspecially the P & F one at the very bottom of the LINK !
TO THE MOON, Alice !
<;-)

Malfleur

(01/17/2003; 20:17:28 MDT - Msg ID: 94828)

Gandalf the White

"Tyro" means beginner, novice, amateur ...May be the sellers of HMY and DROOY are tyros too. I sure hope so...

R Powell

(01/17/2003; 20:19:48 MDT - Msg ID: 94829)

Silver coin melt

From the 2002 Silver Survey which was published last Spring so the information is mostly for the calendar year 2001.

"Of the 202.6 million ounces of secondary supply expected to enter the market this year, around 95% will likely come from old scrap. This includes the melting down of jewelry and silverware, as well as the recovery from a variety of other applications including photographic materials, spent catalysts and other sources.

Another 3.0 million ounces are projected to come from coin melt. This projection is up slightly from 2.0 million ounces last year,...." (page 64)

Me: Only 3 million projected this (2002) year and only 2 million last year (2001)! Compare this amount to the total amount of secondary of 202.6 million. Whatever the amounts were in the past, 2 or 3 million ounces just isn't much compared to the total supply for 2001 which is listed as 746.4 million ounces. Silver coin use in 2001 is listed as 17 million ounces. How reliable these numbers are is questionable but we've nothing better that I know of.? The Survey does give a chart of "Annual Secondary Supply" from 1978-2002 with 2002 being a projected estimate. It appears that just under 100 million ounces are indicated for the year 1980, 50 million for 1979 and declining amounts from 1981 to about 1990. From 1990 on the amounts seem fairly consistent at between 2 to 4 million ounces. I'm guessing from the scale of a small chart but it is evident that coin melt is not a significant supply at all and hasn't been for over a decade. As for past melt, I wonder too how many coins are now in collections.
Mr Bill, thanks for running some numbers by us to back up the initial "poppycock" response.
Interesting that so many coins were melted down in the 1979-1980 time when there still was a great supply of silver available. Whatever comes forward when next the price of silver reaches for the sky remains to be seen, but I doubt it will be anywhere near enough to lower the price when the realization hits that 5000 years of accumulation is somehow gone.
Thoughts?

Max Rabbitz

(01/17/2003; 20:27:40 MDT - Msg ID: 94830)

Malfleur

There are lots of games that can be played with paper. Please read the article I posted below on naked shorts. Drooy has about 15% shares sold short! I wonder if they were all borrowed?

Mr. Bill

(01/17/2003; 20:33:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94831)

@R Powell msg#: 94829 - silver coins

I bet that if you check all around that billion ounces of silver coin will not be found. I guess it has gone to silver heaven. Or is that China.

R Powell

(01/17/2003; 20:36:28 MDT - Msg ID: 94832)

Slowman // Malfleur

Thanks for the info. If/when you can, please ask your broker friend for his thoughts on the current availability of silver and his opinion of investor demand. In that he deals with the real thing as opposed to paper, his insights would be most valuable. Also, most people are happy to talk about their work if someone is genuinely interested in listening.

Malfleur, try looking at the price of your mining stock holdings as compared to the POG over a much longer time period. Maybe overlapping the two prices on a five year chart will disclose the relationship you are looking for. Keep the horizontal axis for time the same size in both charts then "adjust" the vertical axis until the price lines come together as much as possible.
Now you can sell the story on a technical basis!
Rich

Aristotle

(01/17/2003; 20:57:58 MDT - Msg ID: 94833)

Sir Dollar Bill -- do I agree with # 94748?

Well, the first paragraph is corrupted beyond easy repair or discussion, so let's pass on that one for now, ok?

The second paragraph is on target to the fine point that my faith has been restored enough to read onward to the third paragraph.

Alas! Nearly right back where we started!!

OK, so that's the breakdown on the post. Oddly, I didn't find the quote you mentioned. Is that from another post? Are you asking me if I agree with that quote? The answer is not as simple as yes or no, and on that point, I the premise has been oversimplified. I wouldn't be so hasty to say "the poor pay the full cost of inflation" because inflation is also paid for by monetary savings that are diminished in purchasing power. You'll probably agree with me that "the poor" generally don't have much to lose in that regard.

Then again, "the rich" -- assuming they were smart enough to get rich in the first place rather than just falling backward into money -- are also probably smart enough to diversify their wealth into hard assets such as Gold, so they probably don't pay the price any more than "the poor" do.

I guess that leaves the wretched middle class to ante up. The same numbskulls who got taken for the full ride on tech stocks and whatnot. I wonder how many of them are now taking advantage of their recent education in the school of hard knocks? Too few to do any good, likely.

I could go on, but I think you catch my drift, and others here surely get weary of my long-winded input.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

physicalman

(01/17/2003; 21:01:09 MDT - Msg ID: 94834)

Silver-all

Had to answer some on this discussion. Have not posted lately, been fighting pneumonia. Finally feeling better, took off 2 weeks from work. Longest break i've had since 77.
I am looking for a disc that i made that had total US silver coin production from 1857. I do not count production before then becuase a lot of silver coinage from 1792 to 1857 was worth more melted than spent and was either hoarded or shipped overseas and melted. From what i can recollect (will post the no.s sunday) US silver coin production was closer to 4 billion oz. from 1857 to present. As for how much is left out there i can only guess that it is 15 to 20%. I was buying and selling PM's in the seventies and in 79 i know personally that over 90% of the bullion, scrap, 90% and 40% coins that i bought i sold to refiners. Also know a lot of dealers across NA and guys that used to carry 100 to 300 $1000 bags of 90% in stock in the 80's now are lucky to be able to get an inventory buildup to a dozen bags.
In 1976 to 1978 period i was able to buy more bags of silver in each of those years than i was in 1979, so all the workdown of stockpiles did not occur in just that 1 1/2 year period of 79-80. Gold volume for me was heavier in 79 than the silver coins were. I think someone said that coin production was 17 million oz. that sounds about right. US production is 7-11 million oz. with eagles and comm. coinage and the rest are probably Maple Leafs and all the contract minting done by the British Royal Mint for British Commenwealth nations. I personally think there is maybe 15% to 20% of US silver coinage left with about 75% bulk silver and 25% collectors coins. Just an educated guess from 35 years experience. Will post silver production no. sunday, earlier if i find it quicker. As always JMVHO DYODD

Gandalf the White

(01/17/2003; 21:46:22 MDT - Msg ID: 94835)

Thanks Sir Malfleur ! Me only a dumb ol'e Engineer !

Malfleur (1/17/03; 20:17:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 94828)
Gandalf the White
"Tyro" means beginner, novice, amateur ...
===
Thank you ! That is my new word for the day !!
Let us hope that many LURKERS leave the monitary level of "TYRO" and become knowledgible of what Physical Gold means for one's state of well-being by learning at the USAGOLD Forum.
<;-)

balzac

(01/17/2003; 22:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94836)

PREEMPTIVE STRIKES

@A NATION OF ONE -BRAVO!!!Pre-emptive strikes are based on the presumption that might is right and will always prevail.

World opinion is a force which may not be measured in planes or firepower but is based in reason, history and the tenets of human
civilization.

The US Administration cannot ultimately prevail against world opinion.

Balzac

Black Blade

(01/17/2003; 23:04:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94837)

Market Wrap Up � Hartman

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm
Buy Real Estate With Gold

Snippit:

Now let's take a look at the average price of gold for the last twenty years. Look at the period from 1982 to 1996. There were only three years that gold exceeded $400 per ounce. As a rule for the period it appears that gold was pegged to not go above $400. Then the following period from 1997 to last year where it appears that gold was pegged to stay under $300 per ounce. The strong dollar policy of the Clinton Administration which included a cap on gold prices, an increase in the money supply, and a lowering of interest rates has had much to do in the relationship of real estate prices, to interest rates, to the price of gold. Back in the early eighties you could buy the average house in San Diego for about 300 ounces of gold. Today the same house would cost four times that amount or roughly 1200 ounces of gold. Another interesting thing to note is that for the 14 years from 1982 to 1996 home prices increased 70%, but in the most recent six years from 1996 to present prices have gone up 117%. It was half the amount of time and a much bigger increase in prices.

Over the next few years I would expect the numbers to come back more in line where a home would cost somewhere around 400-500 ounces of gold (reversion to the mean). If housing sees a 20% decline and gold goes to $700 per ounce it would mean that our $370,000 home is now about $300,000 and could be purchased with roughly 430 ounces of gold. The only other scenario that I can envision is where home prices are stagnant for the next few years and gold goes up substantially, which would have the same net effect. I sold a rental property and used every penny to buy gold bullion. In a few years the gold will hopefully buy a much nicer property. I would have sold our primary residence and bought gold with the equity, but I like being married, so I had to ditch the plan!

In the final analysis, be cautious when you think of real estate as a tangible asset. It is a hard asset, but usually with debt attached and subject to interest rate exposure, which dictates how expensive that debt will be to carry. When interest rates go up it will be tough to find buyers who can afford the payments at today's prices.

Black Blade: An interesting read to be sure. There's an interesting table as well. The article hits on several of the same points I discussed here before such as real estate prices rising faster than income. The real estate bubble is unsustainable and already there are indications that the bubble is beginning to deflate. Foreclosures have risen to record levels and are increasing as the "wealth effect" of the stock market has all but disappeared, unemployment is rising (the real unemployment that is), and debt-ridden consumers are tapped out. Is it any wonder that the inflation data does not pass the "smell test"? Is it any wonder that the administration is proposing such an aggressive fiscal plan? Is it any wonder that the US is gearing up for war to secure the "prize" (cheap oil) and to distract ravaged investors from domestic economic devastation? We have our collective "backs against the wall".

Black Blade

(01/18/2003; 00:03:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94838)

Trade gap to sink GDP

http://money.cnn.com/2003/01/17/news/economy/trade_gdp/index.htm
Key measure of fourth-quarter economic growth could dip close to zero thanks to trade report.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. GDP growth could be much worse than expected in the fourth quarter of 2002, thanks to an economic number that came out Friday but drew little attention: the trade gap. The Commerce Department said the gap between U.S. exports and imports swelled 13.9 percent to a record $40.1 billion in November, much bigger than the $36.4 billion gap economists, on average, were expecting, according to Briefing.com. Though the news was surprising, it drew little reaction from U.S. stock markets or economists, who pointed out that the end of a 10-day dockworkers' strike on the West Coast led to a sudden flood of imports and skewed the data. And these data describe November, which, for obvious reasons, is of precious little interest for people trying to predict the economy's future. But the report will make a big splash in the Commerce Department's report on fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). The report, due Jan. 30, is the broadest measure of U.S. economic growth.

Black Blade: Uh oh! Did somebody say "double dip"?

Black Blade

(01/18/2003; 00:20:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94839)

Recession redux?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={BAA21D1D-6B00-4531-B88B-4A04863EA6A2}&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Here's a splash of cold water: The National Bureau of Economic Research, the widely acknowledged umpire of the business cycle, has just said that the U.S. may still be in the recession that began nearly two years ago. Either that, or we may have double-dipped into a new recession. In its monthly statement on the economy posted on its Web site, the independent research group took out one important sentence from its previous remarks while adding a new question to its list of frequently asked questions. In the first instance, the NBER eliminated the sentence that read, "The behavior of the economy this year (2002) indicates that the decline in activity that began last year (2001) may have come to an end." This sentence had been included in each of the last few monthly postings. In the second case, the NBER added, right at the top, this question: "Suppose that the current weakness of the economy continues, contrary to current forecasts. How would the NBER decide about turning points?" The NBER's own answer hints at the distinct possibility that, one way or another, the U.S. economy is in a recession. If the NBER thinks the weakness starting late last year was a continuation of the recession that it previously determined began in March 2001, that would make the current downturn at least 21 months old -- the longest contraction in 70 years.

Black Blade: The NBER uses a more comprehensive data set to determine a recession than the simplistic definition preferred by the drones on Wall Street. The drones use only the GDP as an indicator of recession. That is why the trolls in the media spout off that the economy has emerged from recession even though today's pathetic economic conditions suggest otherwise. We are drifting uncontrollably into the "new Great Depression".

Trojan

(01/18/2003; 00:44:54 MDT - Msg ID: 94841)

@ Around The Corner , @ a nation of one , @ sector

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0301/S00059.htmGentlemen:

About your respective posts, # 94772 , # 94777 and
# 94788.

I just came across this story (See Above Link)

It is called "Bush Sticks Closely To His Script"

Bottom Line: It was in December of 1999 while Bush was Governor of Texas that he FIRST said that he would Take Out Saddam and his WMD.

Not as I and probably 99% of the World think, after the 9/11 tragedy.

I'll make this brief and to the point. No disrespect to Americans. It is just my formed opinion.

Bush is NOT an Intelligent Man in it's true meaning.
That is NOT to say that he is Stupid. Let's just say simplistic.

Now he is elected President and no doubt in my mind with great input from his dad, Bush Sr he ends up with most of his father's people from 1988-1991.

Those people are Intelligent, Cunning and IMHO quite Evil. (Evil as it relates to Collateral Damage)

So along with Bush Jr's simplistic I'm taking out Saddam speech and thinking. The "OTHERS" Rumsfield, Cheney, Pearle Etc.... have a PERFECT in to Implement their Agenda "PREEMPTION" around Bush's Script.

It is sad because I don't think Bush is a Bad person but IMHO, he is BUT a Pawn in the "OTHERS" hands.

I apologize for this not being Gold Related but after reading Around The Corner, a nation of one and sector good comments on PREEMPTION and then just having read the article in the link above, I thought it relevant to bring it to light. I think it is important in that it perhaps shows Bush Jr in a different light. Not necessarly in a better one but a more accurate one if my opinion is right.

Either way, correct or not, It still is quite surprising and hopefully informative to know when Bush Jr. first started talking about removing Saddam.

I just hope that this War can be avoided. Today is a Day of War Protest for hundreds of thousands in the USA and many more around the world. This is NOT good for America and it's citizens.

God Bless America

Your Canadian Friend

Don't forget Taylor of Canada (Ambassador) who hid 6 Americans in Iran and helped them escape.

Canada is America's friend BUT like most of the World including the USA and it's people (Majority) War with Iraq only through A Broad Coalition if Need be.

NOT ALONE or with Britain.

Trojan

(01/18/2003; 01:11:02 MDT - Msg ID: 94842)

@ Black Blade ISM Numbers December 2002

http://www.napm.org/ISMReport/ROB012003.cfmBlack Blade, I was just wondering if you have an explanation about the ISM numbers in the December data period that was released on January 2, 2003.

I think I have the correct link above.

If you recall it was such a surprise that the market's went crazy UP :-)

I know it was just one month but it seemed quite good

I think one explanation I read was that in December they add the seasonal adjustments. Another was that it could have been massive purchases for the Possible War with Iraq by the Military.

What's your take on it ?

Do you think the next numbers will be up or down ?

Thank You

Topaz

(01/18/2003; 01:31:22 MDT - Msg ID: 94843)

Malfleur.

Your query re: Goldstock underperformance this time round is also a mystery to mois.
There is a poster hereabouts who would describe the anomoly as "off-register, fractional reserve sharetrading".
It could also be prima-facie evidence that something is rotten in Papergoldville.
Physical in possession Sir....pure and simple.

Black Blade

(01/18/2003; 02:36:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94844)

Re: Trojan - ISM Data

I don't know, beats me. Perhaps it's due to a ramp up by some ahead of the holidays.

- Black Blade

Quixote

(01/18/2003; 02:52:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94845)

(No Subject)

There was a rich man who found his gold suddenly transformed into ashes; and he took to his bed and refused all food. A friend, hearing of his sickness, visited the rich man and learned the cause of his grief. And the friend said: "Thou didst not make good use of thy wealth. When thou didst hoard it up it was not better than ashes. Now heed my advice. Spread mats in the bazaar; pile up these ashes, and pretend to trade with them." The rich man did as his friend had told him, and when his neighbors asked him, "Why sellest thou ashes?" he said: "I offer my goods for sale."

After some time a young girl, named Kisa Gotami, an orphan and very poor, passed by, and seeing the rich man in the bazaar, said: "My lord, why pilest thou thus up gold and silver for sale?" And the rich man said: "Wilt thou please hand me that gold and silver?" And Kisa Gotami took up a handful of ashes, and lo! they changed back into gold. Considering that Kisa Gotami had the mental eye of spiritual knowledge and saw the real worth of things, the rich man gave her in marriage to his son, and he said: "With many, gold is no better than ashes, but with Kisa Gotami ashes become pure gold." - from The Mustard Seed (Buddha)

Black Blade

(01/18/2003; 02:56:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94846)

War on Iraq 'would spark largest-ever oil shortfall'

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Articles.asp?Article=41865&Sn=BUSI
Snippit:

World oil markets face the largest shortfall in history if war breaks out in Iraq while supplies are still curtailed from fellow Opec producer Venezuela, a top analyst at Goldman Sachs investment bank said yesterday. US crude inventories have already fallen near their lowest level in more than two decades because of a 47-day strike in Venezuela, which has cut the country's oil exports to a fifth of normal levels. "In terms of barrels per day this (Venezuela) is one of the larger shocks we've ever had," Steve Strongin, managing director in charge of Commodity Research said on a conference call. "Only the Gulf War, the Iran/Iraq war and the Arab-Israeli war in 1973 represented similar ones," Strongin said. "Then if you threw in a two month interruption to Iraqi crude for political, military whatever reason that would be enough to turn it into the largest shortfall in history." Strongin said oil prices could go above $40 a barrel. "All the tables go to $40 plus," he said. Oil dealers are worried that any loss of Iraqi exports could stretch to the limit the spare capacity of Opec oil producers, who pump around a third of the world's oil.

Black Blade: The Venezuela strike is no closer to resolution, OPEC has little if any real spare capacity, and if Saddam could somehow destroy Iraqi oil we would see oil a lot higher than $40/bbl. Now what if Saddam sees the writing on the wall and decides to withhold all Iraqi production now to hurt the infidels (that's us). He could cause a lot of economic damage while the US continues with its military buildup.

Christian

(01/18/2003; 04:41:54 MDT - Msg ID: 94847)

Can I still post?

Checking to find out.

Renny

(01/18/2003; 05:15:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94848)

**** $362.3 ****

With the Bushmonger creating tension in the mideast and people realizing gold as a good deal POG must go up.

Christian

(01/18/2003; 05:37:12 MDT - Msg ID: 94849)

Gold, M1, M2, M3.

M1= Cash in physical form + checking accounts (demand deposits) M2= Money Market or Money Market Mutual Fund Deposits. M3= Time Deposits, be it privat accounts or money market funds. Gold in physical form is a metal and exchange traded as a commodity. Traded on the OTC as credit swapes as credit creation gold. --- I visited 9 banks yesterday in an attempt to find out a few things. 1- M1 reported by 6 banks ranged from .03 to 1.5% of all holdings. The other three banks refused or kicked me out. 2- M2 reported by 4 banks is less than 3% of all holdings. 3- M3 reported by 4 banks is less then 3% of all holdings. And most of that is repurchase agreements. Nobody explained to me what they mean by repurchase agreements. However all six banks that cooperated did say that M3 is a missleading figure because most deposits are now created by sale of warehouse receipts of metal (mostly gold). 4 Banks told me banks don't trade metal, but buy and sell warehouse receipts to create deposits for loan money creation. It is cheaper, mostly under 1%, plus the cost to protect with a futures contract should the price rise. Their problem is not deposits for loan creation but finding borrowers who want to borrow with good credit standing. They told me that M3 is a missleading figure. M3 is increasing by 20%+ in practice is debt creation in which more deposits are created. Most goes for home mortgage be it new or refinance. Credit creation is 95% of our currency and less than 5% is physical money. - One banker was very nice to me and said, " Banking is about money managment, and we as bankers are obligated to try and get the best return on our (banks) reserves as possible. We can not worry about the return our savings depositers get. The U.S. economy is about the velocity of money, bank loans, trade surplus or deficits. Gold is a currency, and it floats in concert as a credit creation vehicle with whatever the relative value of any currency is". ---He expects gold to drop because to many speculators are long while the demand for gold is dropping. His warehouse lease costs are dropping and he expects interest rates to drop further. He said it is the speculators driving the gold market not the fundamentals.

Hipplebeck

(01/18/2003; 06:47:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94850)

******$382.5******

The next event is in it's unfolding process right now.

The unmasking of the great whore of Babylon
then:
she had a beautiful face and was adorned with rich jewels. She offered herself to any who desired her.
now:
her face has become twisted with anger and instead of jewels she has a grasping hand. She no longer offers but takes.
then:
in her benevolence she offered up great riches to all the countries of the earth to issue in a new age of relief and growth to all the suffering poor.
now:
realization that these riches were loans, and the loans carried far more than an interest rate. They carried clauses that looted natural resources and control of peoples hard earned enterprises.
then:
in her benevolence she offered an umbrella of protection to anyone who had fear of an enemy
now:
realization that this protection was a protection racket that concealed a desire for control
then:
in her benevolence she held out open arms to all of the downtrodden and poor and offered them a home in which to realize their dreams
now:
she judges by race and religious belief who are worthy and who are not
then:
she offered a light unto the nations that promised a leadership role in guiding man to a good and just civilization
now:
realization that she has selfish motives and will use any methods to achieve her dominance

the currency by which her promises were carried to the far corners of the earth are found out to be but a bit of paper with an empty promise and have lost their stature
what was once solid gold is revealed to be the basest of metal covered by a cheap veneer
she has lost her luster
she is becoming ugly and mean
she has lost her way

Boilermaker

(01/18/2003; 07:02:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94851)

SA Gold Stocks

http://blacktusk.commerce.ubc.ca/cgi-bin/fxplotMalfleur,
I think at least part of the relative weakness of the SA gold stocks such as DROOY and HMY can be explained by the recent strength of the SA Rand vs the US$ and the fact that gold prices in Rand have been going down the last few months. The link above shows the SAR/gold ratio. In effect the costs of mining SA gold are rising at the same rate as the selling price.

Another negative for gold stocks vs physical gold may reflect the fact that stock prices are driven mostly by Western attitudes towards gold (negative) and physical gold prices are being driven by physical gold accumulators from the ME and East Asia (positive). This divergence may continue until the West gets the message.

Cheers,
Boilermaker

Boilermaker

(01/18/2003; 07:06:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94852)

Last Post

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.htmlSorry that last link for SAR/gold didn't work. It's at the Pacific currency site for those who want to check the chart.

Around The Corner

(01/18/2003; 07:30:49 MDT - Msg ID: 94853)

(No Subject)

RE: Trojan

Thanks for your sincere reply to the June 9, 2002 Washington Post article I posted yesterday (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22374-2002Jun9.html.) I agree with all you wrote.

To add to Dubya's profile, prior to the 2000 election, Vanity Fair did a well researched article on Dubya's life. In the article, it stated that as a child, Dubya would routinely kill cats and other animals for fun, by shooting them with guns and sticking fireworks up their butt. I can understand a kid being temporarily lead astray by peers and later feeling regret for their spur of the moment actions, but my take on the article was that Dubya got a big kick out of seeing animals blow up and flop around until dead.

Is this tidbit of information relevant to understanding the real George W. Bush? Did the majority of voters correctly sense a general lack of respect for life in George Dubya? Maybe this is one reason why nationally, Bush got 1 million votes less than his rather pathetic opponent (Gore) in 2000.

Prior to 9/11, Dubya was sinking like a rock in the polls. It was only after 9/11 that Dubya's numbers skyrocketed. And now, with the war on terrorism stalled for lack of a definable enemy, Dubya's numbers are once again sinking. Yes, there will be a war in Iraq. There must be if Dubya is to be reelected...and Dubya must be reelected...according to the un-elected officials who installed him. It's the only way they have of historically legitimizing their actions and court decisions resulting in his installation after the 2000 election.

This Bush guy is good at three things: 1) Death, 2) Pain and suffering, and 3) Scamming the middle and lower classes who he professes to be acting in the best interest of. As long as those who pull his strings can keep him in one or more of these roles, they can successfully spin him into fools gold for public consumption. And we all know how well informed the US general public is...a recent poll stated that a majority of US citizens actually think Saddam was behind the attacks on 9/11.

Buy Gold and Silver...and be quick about it.

ATC

Christian

(01/18/2003; 07:49:22 MDT - Msg ID: 94854)

International Gold Standard

The two requirements of a international gold standard = ending the monetization of government debt, ending the monetization of reserve currencies. Such reform can only come about by sharply increasing the net reserves of the world as a whole, reduce the interest rates, and stimulate investment to increase employment, and facilitate the repayment of existing debt with debt default or shareholder equity value loss. --- Most corporations, all banks use off balance sheet gold borrowing in the form of OTC traded swaps. Last year OTC taded more than 30,000 tonnes out of the 32,000+ tonnes of gold that exist. The Euro unlike the $ is not dependent on monetization of government debt, nor is debentent on the $ reserve currency for its value. The Euro is being helped by the increased gold price, which is in their, Asia's and the Middle East countries interest. The Euro will get stronger with the help of a higher gold price and the $ will get weaker until easy Al Greenspan is forced to raise rates. By that time most of our asset bubbles are deflated and the strong Euro can buy productive $ assets to expand. There will be no lasting economic stability anywhere as long as the international monetary system is based on a reserve currency system. The USA has the joyce between gowing bankrupt or join the Euro. No wonder why there is so many American companies switching into the Euro. It is the right thing and the smart thing to do. I would like to do it myself. What is the best way to change my dollar holdings into Euro's? I do not wish to hold Euro stocks, except maybe for a gold company, and I do not want a Euro based savings account at Everbank. Is there such a thing somewhere like E-gold, but is a combination of precious metals for more stability? I would be willing to buy palladium in the $260 range.

Mr Gresham

(01/18/2003; 08:09:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94855)

Quixote

Sounds like Buddha was the first Keynesian ;)

(We won't go over all the attitudes implicit in that little story, but it sounds more like one of those more likely propounded by those trying to promote a certain behavior, rather than by Buddha, who would have been trying to correct a certain attitude.)

Mr Gresham

(01/18/2003; 09:05:15 MDT - Msg ID: 94857)

Contrary Investor

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htmNot to miss.

Max Rabbitz

(01/18/2003; 09:07:02 MDT - Msg ID: 94858)

Malfleur on SA stocks

I believe, most all gold mining stock, not just SA, has been holding or declining since last June. I read that Richard Russel pointed out that spot gold prices are well over their 200 day moving average, about $321, and technicians expect it to correct. If this is true then mining companies would be overvalued at this time and are waiting for the 200 day gold average to catch up. Also, the Iraq thing is considered a temporary factor in the gold price surge. Russel disagrees with both and says gold is rising for fundamental reasons.

All I can say is that I am preparing for major changes. I think it very likely that all mines (not just SA) will be nationalized or heavily taxed to support impoverished nations and/or build new monitary systems. Protect yourself. Government will be able to do little in the New Great Depression (soft spot).

ElGordo

(01/18/2003; 09:27:35 MDT - Msg ID: 94859)

Chavez says no to negotiations

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Saturday his government was considering withdrawing from negotiations with opposition leaders about solving his country's political crisis.

His comments, made by telephone to a late night state television news program in Caracas, raised doubts about the future of peace talks with opposition leaders currently being brokered by Organization of American States Secretary General Cesar Gaviria.

The negotiations are trying to end the conflict behind a 48-day-old opposition strike that has slashed oil output and shipments by the world's No. 5 petroleum exporter.

The strike, called by the opposition to press left-winger Chavez to resign and hold early elections, has caused serious shortages of gasoline, cooking gas and some food items and pushed Venezuela's oil-reliant economy deeper into recession.

Noting that opposition strike leaders condemned him as a "tyrant," Chavez blasted them as "terrorists and fascists," and said there was "no possibility of conversation with them."

He added: "We in the government ... are considering withdrawing our team from the negotiating table because those people (the opposition) are showing no sign that they really want to choose the democratic path."
______________
Who would have thought the strike weeks ago would last this long?

ElGordo

(01/18/2003; 09:30:01 MDT - Msg ID: 94860)

@Mr Gresham

Glad you enjoyed the posts! China is going to consume a lot of
the world's commodities in the coming years. Gold for sure.

a nation of one

(01/18/2003; 09:34:40 MDT - Msg ID: 94861)

@ Trojan (1/18/03; 00:44:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 94841)

This subject is in fact related to gold. It is one reason why our nation is having the trouble it is having, and it is one aspect of gold's perceived value. On preemptive strikes: If you attack people for what they might do, you will eventually have to attack everyone. For whatever one person may hypothetically do, anyone may hypothetically do. To choose to attack on the basis of what you believe your enemy is thinking -instead of on action which your enemy has actually taken against you- requires that you must, sooner or later, perceive all of humanity as your enemy. And if you choose this course your idea will be right, because there is not any thing that humanity has a greater interest in eliminating, than those who make humanity their enemy. To believe that someone is your enemy requires more than merely a perception of their having a desire and a capacity to attack you. It is necessary that they have actually attacked you in the past. According to all evidence presently available to the American public, Iraq has not attacked the United States, except to defend its own interests, and it does not have the capacity to do so. All the nations of the earth, combined together, have been unable to prove that Iraq has the ability to attack the United States. And there is another problem. The actions of the present government of the United States of America are profoundly at fault in regard to current events. The U.S. is itself to blame for the difficulties it is experiencing.

ElGordo

(01/18/2003; 09:48:09 MDT - Msg ID: 94862)

Rising energy costs to slow economy

New York, Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks' rise this month may fall victim to higher energy costs, which threaten to undercut any potential benefits from President George W. Bush's $674 billion tax-cut proposal, some investors said.

DuPont Co., the second-largest U.S. chemicals maker, said oil prices' surge to a two-year high will hurt profit by lifting raw- material costs. Companies as different as Maytag Corp., an appliance maker, and Harley-Davidson Inc., a motorcycle producer, may find consumers less willing to buy, the money managers said.

``A rule of thumb is that a penny-a-gallon increase at the (gasoline) pump amounts to a billion dollars in costs to the economy,'' said Will Braman, chief investment officer of John Hancock Funds Inc., which manages $29 billion in Boston. ``Maybe you'll get $45 billion in tax relief this year, but 45 cents of increase at the pump would eliminate that.''
_______
Accuweather says more intense cold for next week.
Retail sales will be down also because of weather.
People will stay home and pay for staying warm.

pilgrims_gold

(01/18/2003; 10:01:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94863)

***** $365.20 ******

I believe we will be at war with Iraq before the 2nd week of February, this will be the next catalyst for a gold move upwards. I expect Gold may go as high as 390/ounce, but this is just my gut feeling. No guts, no glory!

a nation of one

(01/18/2003; 10:06:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94864)

@ Max Rabbitz (1/18/03; 09:07:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 94858)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=dmax&w=1&t=l&a=200
Here is where you can see for yourself the 200 day moving average relative to the price of gold. Several things should be understood. One is that technicians are focused primarily on events occurring on a chart. Most of them lack knowledge about charts, however. They tend more to be knowledgeable of their business and use charts to enhance that. So their motive is skewed. Many technical analysts' considerations are not viewed objectively but with a purpose in mind. But they do all tend to use the same kind of reasoning, and for this reason their interpretations do have some validity, because they are all acting in harmony with one another. From the link you should be able to figure out that -if trading continues as it has been going- the little red line is much more likely to go up than down, due to the fact that as the opposite end of it proceeds forward through time, the more recent up trend will only add to its upward movement. Also notice that the blue line has itself been establishing higher highs and higher lows for several weeks. This is not consistent with a high probability that it will fall lower.

ElGordo

(01/18/2003; 10:13:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94865)

China needs to import more energy

BEIJING, Jan 18 (Reuters) - China's top oilfield, Daqing, plans to produce less than 50 million tonnes of crude oil for the first time in 27 years as reserves dwindle, the China Chemical Industry News reported on Saturday.

Dollar Bill

(01/18/2003; 10:23:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94866)

Hipplebeck

You and some others here can demonize your "enemy" and ascribe qualities to them as you paint them black.

That does not alter reality however, I suggest walking away from your present view of your "enemies" and take another look.

Max Rabbitz

(01/18/2003; 10:33:49 MDT - Msg ID: 94867)

A Nation of One

Yes, and I see your chart shows it's been a long time since spot gold has been below the 200 day moving average.... way back in 2001. Waiting for a good buy on technical data could be a long wait.

sector

(01/18/2003; 11:04:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94868)

@Max Rabbitz Your are correct, but for the wrong reasons

Government will first "Nationalize"...Iraq's oil.

Or at least until the Turks move to defend Baghdad and leave the US standing around in the South with only the oil fields and no WMD invasion justification. World popular opinion will then force an ignominious exit, leaving the US impoverished. This scenario could unfold very quickly with the added petro losses from Chavez and the Venz.

Will the US then grab gold mines? Not if they still want a general rule of law. Bush will have been admonished once on oil he would not risk it a second time.

Will the US compensate impoverished nations? Nothing in Western history suggests a true social conscience in the West except possibly for the Marshall Plan and that was mostly to forestall another post WWII military build-up in Europe.

No, the US will devalue its currency along with Japan because they have TOO long enjoyed a high standard of living unsupportable by their underlying economies.

One can think of the forced sale of Western national gold [To artificially elevate their currencies] as the final act in a sham begun in the 1950s with government arrogance and largess on both sides of the Atlantic.

The only way for the loss of central bank gold to be curtailed is to allow its price in $USD to rise to a level that spurs universal dishoarding. Which is to say, to a price that lures gold from ALL quarters into an actually free market.

Other attractive schemes to extend the dollar's current life will not work because the gold buyers in countries that possess solid economies know the truth and can't be dissuaded without genuine reasons.

This Deval event which you have sensed is a big thing. It essentially "Resets" the world economies to a more balanced relative position and gives the Western governments some breathing time with no gold sales needed.

This is why we do not see any appreciable drops in the recent price of gold. The cartel is conserving everylast ounce they can PRIOR to the deval.

One can envision numerous ways to get the price of gold up "There" where it belongs, fast and slow, big chunks or little nibbles at a time but the final position is higher, far higher than it is today.

How high? Ask Vladimir Putin [Remember, he knows that the US won't be able to steal Iraqi oil] what it would take for him to sell all his gold for dollars without hesitation.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/18/2003; 11:07:55 MDT - Msg ID: 94869)

In bookstores for $14.95. Get it here for ONLY $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

(01/18/2003; 11:09:58 MDT - Msg ID: 94870)

GoldCorp & Rob McEwen

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/McEwen.htmlHad an interesting phone call from Victor Webb yesterday. I met Victor when he did publicity work for the World Gold Council years ago. He still helps them out on occasion, but has now hooked up with Rob McEwen at GoldCorp ( a good meeting of forces ) and called to see if I was up to speed on what McEwen and GC were involved in. I said I was and pointed him to the Gilded Opinion piece we put up in November (linked above), and asked him if there was anything new.

McEwen exposed the fatal flaw in the paper gold market recently when he attempted without success to purchase a modest 40,000 ounces of gold on the open market. The story was not so much that he tried to purchase that quantity of gold, but that the bullion banks couldn't put the deal together for him. At the time I said that this might have been the most important gold story of 2002, and I'm going to stick to that.

Victor tells me that Gold Corp owns 196,000 ounces of gold -- in its corporate treasury!! (How many mining companies could make such a boast?) That reserve position is greater than 41 of the 112 nations now holding gold (and he isn't leasing it out).

Gold Corp has accumulated this gold in two ways, says Victor, first by witholding some of its production and second from purchases in the open market. It added 17,000 ounces from production in the 4th Qtr,2002, and now has accumulated 96,000 ounces in this manner. It has acquired 100,160 ounces by the second method and none in the 4th quarter due to the failed attempt to purchase already mentioned.

Victor emphasizes that the value of GoldCorp's reserve is roughly $67 million, and $9 million was gained in the fourth quarter 2002. I would think that that number has jumped even more with what's gone on in January.

Consider if every mining company took the same approach Rob McEwen has (instead of the diametric opposite, as is the case with some mining firms who have sold several years of production forward). . . . . . He is to be commended, as I said late last year, and an ally to physical bullion holders like most of you seated at this table. One of the more interesting aspects of the McEwen strategem was that he was told earlier by bullion bankers (at Michelle Ashby's Denver Gold Group Annual Conference) that they could acquire 640,000 ounces of gold without a problem in a couple of days. Forget the 640,000 ounces, they couldn't even come up with 40,000.

Said McEwen: "There is something weird in this market when the assumption is the nominal liquidity is out there and broad, but when you go to physical, you have trouble getting it. So the real liquidity I think is much diminished. If we can, through our actions encourage other people to buy gold and other producers to withhold gold, maybe it would bring about a tightness that would be beneficial to the industry. I mean, 40,000 ounces!"

Victor Webb promises to keep me informed of Mr. McEwen's activities, and I will pass it along.

The full interview is interesting to say the least and available right here at USAGOLD. Go to the link above.

---------------

Good luck to all in the new Contest. It should be an interesting time for this. I can almost hear the wheels turning. . . . . . .

slingshot

(01/18/2003; 11:49:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94871)

coin dealers

I have noticed that the coin/bullion dealers in my area have been closed one weekend a month to visit coin shows or doing inventory. Hmmm.
Slingshot----------------<>

Around The Corner

(01/18/2003; 12:14:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94872)

(No Subject)

Sector

Saddam has most likely transported his WMD into Saudi Arabia. A few months back (last summer when Saddam was visiting his neighbors) the main road from Iraq to Saudi Arabia was suddenly reopened after a decade long closure. (If you remember during the Gulf War, Saddam sent 40 of his fighter jets to Iran.)

This may be the reason Saddam is being so cooperative with the UN inspections as well as the reason why the US hasn't already moved on Iraq...they both know there are no WMD in Iraq. If the UN inspectors were smart, they would be looking for evidence that Iraq's WMD had been recently transported into Saudi Arabia.

If Saddam has in fact sent his WMD into Saudi Arabia for 1) safe keeping, and 2) to protect Mecca from invading "Crusaders", then the very thing Bush and Cheney say they are trying to prevent...WMD in the hands of terrorists....is exactly what they have forced to take place. Never forget...15 of the 19 terrorists on 9/11 were Saudis.

One thing you can always count on...whatever Dubya & Co. touches...quickly turns to crapola.

Buy Gold and Silver...and be quick about it.

ATC

ElGordo

(01/18/2003; 13:07:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94873)

One of the most depressing articles to appear in Barron's in many years

http://www.FreeRepublic.com/focus/news/825013/posts?page=1BUBBLES HAVE LONG BEEN part of the financial firmament. The tulipmania in 17th-century Holland and the notorious South Sea Company stock bubble a century later in England are lowlights of economic lore.

History is replete with numerous other examples of financial manias followed almost ineluctably by huge price busts, down to our own era. Japan is still paying the price of deflation and economic narcolepsy a decade after bubbles in its stock and real-estate markets popped. Debt collapses in Asia and South America punctuated much of the 'Nineties. The bursting of the U.S. tech-stock bubble in early 2000 led to the vanishing of more than $5 trillion in wealth, at least on paper.Now, many worry that a U.S. housing bubble, lofted by four-decade lows in mortgage rates, could explode, eviscerating consumer spending and economic growth.

Curiously, however, one reads almost nothing about what may be the biggest bubble of them all -- the huge ballooning of total debt in the U.S. That measure, an aggregate of the borrowings of all households, businesses and governments (federal, state and local), zoomed up from about $4 trillion at the beginning of 1980 to $31 trillion as of 2002's third quarter, according to the latest available Federal Reserve flow-of-funds data.

While some observers see no cause for alarm in these figures, others fear that this debt surge could be edging the U.S. economy toward the abyss of a bust -- and then into a depression.

Reality Check

The 'Nineties economic boom boosted wage, profit and productivity growth, enhancing the ability of consumers and businesses to service debt. Yet, after-the-fact revelations about the accounting shenanigans of that period lead to an important question: How much of the profit boom and productivity miracle was real?

It may have been as much an artificial product of debt leverage as of true internal growth. Credit-market debt now equals 295% of gross domestic product, compared with 160% in 1980 and less than 150% during much of the 1960s. More ominously, debt as a percentage of GDP exceeds the previous record reading of 264% from early in the Great Depression -- when the aftermath of the Roaring 'Twenties borrowing binge collided with a sharp economic contraction. And today's debt load is clearly starting to pinch consumers and businesses: Credit-card charge-offs of bad loans exceed 7% of total debt outstanding, compared with the previous peak around 5%, reached in the mid-1990s, according to Standard & Poor's.

Engorged With Debt

U.S. personal bankruptcy filings in last year's third quarter jumped some 12% from the level a year earlier. And when 2002's total is in, it will almost certainly eclipse 2001's record 1.43 million.

Meanwhile, mortgage delinquencies are soaring, particularly among less creditworthy borrowers. In the "sub-prime" market, delinquencies have jumped to 8.07% from just 4.50% in 1999, according to Loan Performance, a San Francisco tracking firm. This market, which caters to people with checkered credit histories, accounts for about 10% of the $5.8 trillion of U.S. mortgage debt currently outstanding. Delinquencies on Federal Housing Administration loans, which make up about 15% of the dollar amount of U.S. mortgage debt, are at a 30-year high of 11.8%. The typical FHA borrower is a first-time home buyer with limited funds.

Rock

(01/18/2003; 13:10:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94874)

Re: MK & Goldcorp

Great piece of info there Mr. K let me tell you, it speaks volumes. Now we can see what happens if some of the big hitters start placing orders for deliverly. Looks like the new "Enron" is about to be uncovered. I'm looking forward to next weeks economical activities. If your in the SM its a long nail biting time of nervous antipation and false hopes however if your in the precious metals market its a time of sweet sleep and eager anticipation as we watch gold make its accent. Have a great weekend.

The Rock

Shapur

(01/18/2003; 13:16:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94875)

a few thoughts

can it be possible that we are at the start of a major league oil shock? I think it could be quite possible that we are. Black Blade, do you remember if there was an opec meeting in/with Venezuela prior to the social breakdowns? And remember the failed coup? Maybe the Venezuela situation is a real live card being played, a real log in the base of an oil price fire, with Iraq as the match, and an unknown accelerator waiting to get splashed into the mix?!

there has been much talk about gold going up into the war and then falling as the bombs start dropping. Maybe gold falls off as expected and then rockets ahead as the real fire begins to burn in oil prices??

any ideas?

(01/18/2003; 13:53:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94876)

Rock. . .

Thanks for you comment.

There are still a great many who don't kow the difference between a hedged mining company and unhedged one. There are still people who don't understand the difference between owning a gold stock and owning the real metal. For awhile, we had posters here defending the hedged mining companies. For some unexplained reason, they have drifted into the nether left behind by the overall stock market bubble.

To make a long story short over the past year while gold rose from $270 to $355, GoldCorp, an unhedged miner and owner of the hard metal as a reserve, went from roughly $6 to $12.50; Barrick generally criticized for its hedging policies went from $16 to $16.

There are great differences between stocks in different mining companies; there are great differences between the stocks and gold itself. One is not, and cannot be, a proxy for the other. In the most recent gold run-up only a handful of stocks have risen with it. To me, it looks the stocks got ahead of the market and need a good lift in the gold price to justify current p/e ratios. If true, that makes the metal itself more attractive to speculators at this time and that may be why gold has stubbornly held above the $350 level. The hedged companies are doomed unless they find some way to cover their hedges. Much of their production is locked-into sales programs on the other side. They will not participate in any future gold run-up but are merely being operated like utilities for the benefit of bullion banks who counter-signed on all these loans and intend to see them repaid. Even if they wanted to dip into capital and buy gold on the open market to close out the hedges they might not be able to if McEwen's experience in the gold market is indicative (and I think it is.)

Be careful out there, my friends. A good friend and gold stock analyst pointed out to me yesterday that one prominent Wall Street firm -- a household name -- recommended gold recently. A good thing, one would think. They then topped it off by recommending a list of four or five hedged mining companies (never bothering with a mention of owning the metal itself) -- proof positive that little has changed on Wall Street despite the corporate and financial scandals reaching the nation's front pages. If I weren't so used to this sort of thing, I'd have a hard time laughing it off. As it is, we had a good laugh about it. Nothing's changed in the bubble aftermath. On a positive note, many of us -- at least those who frequent this Table -- know what recommendations like that are all about. As I say. . . Wall Street hasn't changed; it's just lying low.

EagleOne

(01/18/2003; 14:02:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94877)

***** $362.50 *****

The next important gold development? The trouble is it's all important, but the only way my limited faculties can make sense of it is to just let the market price and volume tell me what is actually happening.

Many important market drivers will be discussed on the forum but all of them or none of them are important except what effect they, along with other unknown events, may have on the POG. As these forces combine in 2003 to move the POG, I think it's a big mistake for investors to focus on some pre-conceived conditions or events and wait for that to happen before investing...or withdrawing.

Nevertheless, the next important gold development could/may/might reveal it's significance by strong resistance at 400. This hesitation in the rising POG could mark the completion of the cup formation began in early 1996 and a initiate a consolidation (handle) lasting several months and retracing 15 to 20 points. These conditions could then be the setup for a serious break-out above 414 as the media and our next-door-neighbors all begin to discover the merits of buying and holding gold.

Best of luck to all posters old and new and heartfelt thanks to our host.

Rock

(01/18/2003; 14:04:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94878)

Elgordo #94873

Great post. That about sums it up in a nutshell.

Usul

(01/18/2003; 14:06:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94879)

Fed Chairman Greenspan's house burglarized

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030117/crime_greenspan_burglary_3.htmlOh, the Irony!

balzac

(01/18/2003; 14:15:59 MDT - Msg ID: 94880)

GOLD CONTEST: Brevity is of the essence.

**** $375.5 ****
Two factors will affect the price of gold over the next 2 weeks.

I would rank the trade imbalance first, for if continues at the present rate, it will amount to $480 billion for 2003.
This would be disasterous for the USA.

Secondly rumors of war will increase and the insecurity thus generated will increase demand for gold to about $ 10. by Jan.31st.

Balzac

Mr Gresham

(01/18/2003; 14:23:58 MDT - Msg ID: 94881)

Doug Noland

http://prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp"For those of us who have watched this company (AmeriCredit) since its early days as a used car dealer in Fort Worth (U-Car-Co), it is rather incredible that near failure in the early nineties was transformed by Wall Street structured finance into a company with managed receivables of over $16 billion.... It is worth noting that behemoth Credit insurer MBIA jumped into the fray by providing insurance on a $1.7 billion securitization in October, MBIA's first deal with AmeriCredit. The Credit insurers (and the holders of their insured bonds) will regret ever conjugating with subprime lending. What could they have been thinking?"

Conju-wha??? What could Doug be saying? That must be Australian for, uh, ... Let us admire the restraint that Doug HAS shown over the years, as he watches the inmates run the asylum. I'm sure he is saving his finest superlatives for an hour that transcends financial mathematics entirely.

ElGordo

(01/18/2003; 14:32:12 MDT - Msg ID: 94882)

CNN poll Gloom and Doom

New York -- Over half of Americans (53%) polled approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as president, according to the latest TIME/CNN poll.

His approval rating has dropped slightly from 55% a TIME/CNN poll in December

Over half (56%) say the country is in deep and serious trouble, while over a third (39%) say the problems we face today are no worse than at any other time in recent years.

Only a quarter (27%) think economic conditions will get better in the next 12 months, down from 35% in October 2002.

Over half (51%) think Bush is doing a poor job handling the economy, while half (50%) think he is doing a good job handling foreign policy.

The TIME/CNN poll was conducted by Harris Interactive by telephone among 1,010 adult Americans age 18 or older Jan. 15-16, 2003. Margin of error for total sample is +/- 3.1%. Full poll results attached.
__________
Rock-Its a great article, does sum it up well. Its amazing
Barron's is even mentioning the possibility of "D" word.

Usul- Greenspan being burgled-too funny.

White Hills

(01/18/2003; 14:44:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94883)

Around the Corner Msg#94853

Sir: I suggest that you go back and read the rules that govern the discussion on this Forum. Sometimes there is good reason to discuss some aspects of politics in making some economic point that support your views. But, this post falls way out of line of any economic discussion. I visit this forum every chance I get to find out the latest news and to get the latest views of the forum. This Forum is very important to me and I certainly don't expect to read Post like yours. I suggest that in the future you would realize how offended some people are to your type of Post. Stick to Gold and economics. White Hills

ElGordo

(01/18/2003; 15:08:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94884)

UN finds nuke documents

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2672825.stmThe head of the United Nations atomic agency has voiced concern about documents apparently relating to nuclear technology which were found in an Iraqi scientist's home.

The documents, numbering 3,000 pages, appear to focus on laser enrichment - a way to modify uranium for use in nuclear weapons - and were taken from the home of physicist Faleh Hassan on Thursday.

GoldnSilver2002

(01/18/2003; 15:17:37 MDT - Msg ID: 94885)

Gold stocks havent kept up with gold?

I have recently been pondering this issue of why gold mining stocks havent kept up with the p.o.g.This is not entirely correct.I will not pump a stock but across the pond,away from the influence of north american media?On the london exchange there is one gold stock which has gone from approx 10 pounds to now about 37'since november 2002.This lead me to one possible conclusion,negative media hype and ignorance.In north america,investors are told,the war will be quick,this is just a blip.The scars of july are still fresh in the publics minds as the media blurts "gold is going down!" or this is just the "Iraq affect."I found in europe they have learned from past experience(the nazis),how damaging propaganda is on a gullible public.As a result,the gold suppression story gets some creedence and gold is openly discussed.All we hear in north america is negative."Gold is down!after a quick war it will go down"they scream.After being wrong for 2 years straight.

Gold now sits nicely at 356,above the maginot line of 354.50.The north american media can slow us down,but not the rest of the world.We wont wake up until gold hits 400,which may very well be too late to get physical.At that point people will be forced into whatever gold stocks wall st is pumping'such as the hedgers.Once again many lemmings will get fleeced.Its the rest of the world dragging gold up,not us yet."Time is on my side,yes it is."

Henri

(01/18/2003; 15:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94886)

*******$360.00********

Last chance for those who have not yet jumped onboard to get on. This train is leaving the station and will not be accessible at $450 and higher. Just won't be anyone willing to sell anything but paper.

Boilermaker

(01/18/2003; 15:58:28 MDT - Msg ID: 94887)

Usul - Fed Chairman Greenspan's house burglarized

OK, which one of you guys burgled AG and did you find any gold?

Cometose

(01/18/2003; 16:04:41 MDT - Msg ID: 94888)

Fed Chairman's house burglarized

THERE IS NOT HONOR AMONG THIEVES.........

THE CHICKENS ARE COMING HOME TO ROOST....

TIME TO PAY THE PIPER....

HE'S ONLY JUST BEGUN ........ SCARY THOUGHT

24carat

(01/18/2003; 16:10:36 MDT - Msg ID: 94889)

******359.10******

The major upward force in the coming two weeks for gold will be the ongoing situation in Iraq coupled with an unfolding energy crisis. I live in southeasten Indiana and this morning it was -7.

The flip side of the coin has to do with options expiration and the ability of the paper giants to use the market to their advantage. Their infinite profit lies in the ability to control and control they will. The American investing public has been totally removed from precious metals permanently and without the help of the masses the going will be much tougher.

R Powell

(01/18/2003; 16:26:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94890)

M.K. // Rob McEwen and large gold orders

It was indeed an interesting story. May I ask a few questions of you or anyone who cares to offer any thoughts?
The article stated that bullion banks (plural) were approached for this purchase. How is newly mined gold transfered from miner to buyer, that is, what is the normal marketing route for the sale of gold that hasn't already been promised by a previous sale (hedged)? Are bullion banks usually involved or could Mr. McEwen have purchased directly from other miners or other souces?

Also, why was the Comex overlooked? Buyers standing for delivery off Comex would create the most publicity as to the existing supply and demand situation, no? I do not believe that silver travels through Comex during its journey from producer to end user, is this also true of gold? Both silver and gold have recurring yearly deficits in regards to supply and demand but, it seems, whether by lack of knowledge of its existence or through the discounting of its importance, this deficit seems totally incapable of pushing prices higher. Perhaps the POG is responding somewhat now, silver certainly hasn't yet.

When Buffett wanted silver he went to the Comex. Why did Mr. McEwen choose the bullion banks over the exchange?
Thanks,
Rich

Rock

(01/18/2003; 17:34:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94891)

Re: around the corner

I have to concur with White Hills, your way off subject and your posts are very distastful to tell you the truth.

Mr. Bill

(01/18/2003; 17:38:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94892)

@Around The Corner msg#: 94853

Keep up the good work. Them other guys are obviously confused.

Aristotle

(01/18/2003; 17:59:15 MDT - Msg ID: 94893)

RPowell and the COMEX oddsmaker -- a betting window, not a storefront.

COMEX is not *not* NOT an integral part of the distribution stream for Gold. It is, however, a major component in price discovery.

This has has all been covered before. I for one tried to help you out not long ago with a detailed breakdown on the meaning, or should I say misnomer, of COMEX inventory. I'd think a man with your keen interest in these sorta things would already be on top of all of this. Metals listed, sitting, coming or going, need not have any connection with the future's trade on the Exchange. If I were to pull kilo bars of Gold outta storage at HSBC on Tuesay, you'd see the so called "COMEX inventory" fall, all without a single contract being involved or affected.

If Rob were to try to take your implied advice to use COMEX as a conduit, he'd find himself in a conversation with someone like good ol' Nick at the Exchange at his persuasive best -- telling him how he's sorely mistaken the whole point of the Exchange, and to please run along and pursue his physical Gold elsewhere through *proper* channels.

Does this bring you up to speed, or at least refresh your memory? If it doesn't, then I'm gonna bow out here on this deal having previously given it my best shot with a full treatment. The task in the face of my failure falls to these other good fellows.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Tacitus

(01/18/2003; 18:02:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94894)

Is "Around the Corner" way off base?

Dear Fellow Posters and Viewers,

In posting #94853, "Around the Corner" rips on Dubya. One item, amongst all the rest he got wrong, was his polling numbers. The fact is that George W. Bush's popularity was steadily going up right up to 9/11. Then it sky rocketed. And make no mistake about it, his numbers are still very high for a president, close to 60 percent.

I think "Around the Corner" wishes Al Gore was our president but not for the right reasons. He would like Al Gore to be president because then, Gold would really be going through the roof.

In all seriousness guys, I think we get a little too negative at times. There are a lot of good people in this world, including in the government, and I mean both parties.

So cheer up, buy some gold but don't be in a panic. God is with us, even though we are a stiff necked people.

Salve,
Tacitus

Mr. Bill

(01/18/2003; 18:08:12 MDT - Msg ID: 94896)

@Tacitus msg#: 94894

You can fool some of the people. Especially when you own the media. Or rather when the people that own you also own the media.

R Powell

(01/18/2003; 19:08:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94897)

The question remains

Aristotle, I realise that Comex is a "major component in price discovery" and suspected (as is the case with silver) that Comex is "Not an integral part of the distribution stream for gold." Thanks for some confirmation.

However, the question remains why Mr. McEwen did not simply buy on Comex and take delivery.

Also unanswered is the question of whether McEwen could simply buy directly from other sources. Why bother with any bullion bankers? Bullion bankers do not produce gold. I don't believe silver transactions require a middleman. Silver certainly does not flow through the Comex. Middlemen exist, I'm sure, and are probably necessary for many purchases but how many? We need CPM for our purchases but does McEwen (a large miner) need a broker to buy 40,000 ounces?

The fact that Comex stores are stored in bullion banks does not answer the question. You and I may have to agree to disagree on whether metal delivery is possible through a Comex contract. I believe it is. So does Mr. Buffett.
Any other thoughts?
Rich

Malfleur

(01/18/2003; 19:13:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94898)

(No Subject)

SA Gold Mines: ThanksMany thanks to Topaz, Boilermaker and Max Rabbitz for their comments. I hope that the latter is wrong about nationalisation...

Boliermaker, I thought that HMY had pegged an exchange rate at about R11.30:US$1 and so should have avoided most of the ill effects of the strengthening rand.

By the way, NASDAQ price link shows the two stocks down in US$ while Kitco has them up in rand at the close of business. Curiouser and curiouser, although I understand that New York and Jo'Burg are in diffreent time zones.

Cavan Man

(01/18/2003; 19:16:35 MDT - Msg ID: 94899)

R Powell

Maybe the answer is the COMEX isn't the only game in town. I prefer USAGOLD but there are obviously other vendors. COMEX is stil working a half day; why? Buying metal is dependant in large part upon relationships and trust.

Dollar Bill

(01/18/2003; 19:17:42 MDT - Msg ID: 94900)

Knight Aristotle, would you care to address the Round Table.

I was reviewing some of the Hall of Fame Teachings, and
I raise my (Gold) Goblet of Grog to you for your report from the Kings Counting House, and of course, the other Hall of Famers.

"The dollars America was able to issue via simple printing carried the same value in trade as the dollars that had to be earned by other nations through meaningful productivity." -------No question of this one, I did find it a great reminder.

"the System (international financial system) could not survive a Third Oil Crisis--the inflation would make it impossible to recycle the petrodollars to the oil importing countries with any hope of repayment, trade would crumble, and the System would be brought to its knees"--------Here you were reporting the opinion of someone in about 1980.
I am just hopefully guessing that perhaps structurally
things have been changed to survive the next wave of inflation of fiat. There has been discussion that besides
trading oil in dollars, the companies that import and export goods throughout the world have a deciding impact on what currency is reserve by thier choice of which currency to use. I mention that thinking that perhaps that is a new element that might be a factor.

"The CB's are fretting because their guarantees were used over and over again, and they are on the hook for a lot of Money (Gold) when the speculating Hedge Funds and bullion banks find it impossible to cover their Loan repayment obligations on the spot market as the price races away from them due to the hypersensitivity that low supply has caused. Shades of Rotterdam. Currently aggravating this spot market problem is the massive demand by individuals brought about by the low prices and concerns for Y2K. I hope this give you new perspective on the push lately by some CB's to free up some Money (Gold) from the vaults, whether it is Bank of England, IMF, or maybe even Swiss. It should also give you perspective on the anti-gold propaganda delivered regularly by the media. Consider that a skyrocketing price of Gold would not only be viewed by the masses as a viable investment avenue, it would also tend to shake the confidence in paper currencies, and threaten the banking system and Wall Street in general."
--------I dont recall if this is a quote of yours, but it echoes my concern that thier is a threat to our system. I would like to fully relax as you suggested to me in a kindly post after my latest challenge to the Black Knight Murphy. But I do still need to upgrade my knowledge of our situation to understand the structure of the "bridge".

"

"When this paper system collapses, the gold metal that always remains will inherit the value currently spread thin throughout the expansive paper system.
A major item that has been part of this US support structure for the dollar was the G-10 policy on gold. The falling gold price, as seen in the world reserve currency has contributed immensely to the ongoing settlement of all trade in dollars. Indeed, the very continuation of the world trade system. Leading the dollar support component of trade was the use of crude oil settlement in dollars. That one item required practically every nation on earth to buy dollars (or at the least run a positive dollar trade balance with other dollar holding countries) to pay for oil
the continued physical function of the established world gold markets was paramount in holding this oil support for the dollar. When the day comes that the paper contract gold markets are seen as "in question", the flow of oil will slow and its price in dollars will rise. From early this year, this process has begun.
Further, a falling dollar will release ECB dollar reserves as fair game to buy physical gold from any and all entities. However, this buying will most likely be through the BIS and member CBs, not the over leveraged LBMA [London Bullion Market Association] or world gold paper"

"Because this process creates a unique reserve benefit, not used in the old gold standard, they will never officially back the Euro with gold. Rather, allow a new "free market" in physical gold (not paper) to supplement their currency operations. The efficiency of modern trade requires a digital currency. That need alone will always support the use of a currency. If gold can trade beside paper money, neither will drive the other out of circulation (as old money gold coins did to paper gold money) as long as they can each seek their own values. ( a very interesting concept??)
It was pointed out to me that our great world gold market is the most liquid it has ever been. The members have many reserves and even insurance companies to back them. I completely agree! They will not fail one investor with the lack of cash settlement for all remaining, unsettled claims. The dollar/IMF block of countries will print whatever money is needed to clear out this arena. Just as the US once before called in gold and settled up in "local gold backed cash" because the foreign dollar gold loans had failed, this time will they call in "real gold paper" and settle in "absolute fiat cash"."
----------- This is not part of your writings, but on the same page. Do you think any part of this, well, any comments on it?
Again, a raised Goblet Toast.

mikal

(01/18/2003; 19:40:15 MDT - Msg ID: 94901)

@Mr. Bill Re: msg 94896

Just got back after a refreshing little sabbatical and read your exemplary post.
Speaking of "fool all of the people", I just saw El Gordo's post on the Time/CNN popularity poll.
This is right up there with the "person of the year" gala, which with their weekly tradition of exacting "news for the serious student of current events", makes Time magazine so beloved in every true-blooded American home.
I've posted on similar polls several times. Talk about classic statistical INSIGNIFICANCE! Let's see, there were 1,010 respondents. Sampled out of 250,000,000+ population. That's about ONE in 250,000!
Hello?
Have we ANY senses left?
Or is this unified, homogenous thinking from watching TV, Time mag and loyal acquiescence to our fearless teachers, from preschool onwards?
Naa, only in communist countries.

Aristotle

(01/18/2003; 19:41:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94902)

Especially for RPowell

""""the question remains why Mr. McEwen did not simply buy on Comex and take delivery.""""

Go ahead. Try it for yourself. Then, have another look at exactly what I wrote to you as the reason. Understanding comes with experience, or, if we're lucky, through a patient friend instead. Your choice.

""""Why bother with any bullion bankers?""""

Why *bother* with them??? Hello! When you want to build a house, do you not go to the lumberyard? I imagine it will change some day, but such is the structure we have today. But sure, if it's only a twig you want, any kid with a jackknife can fetch one down for you. The size of the task dictates your middleman.

Let's not agree to disagree if we don't *have* to leave this open and unresolved. Tell me what you know, and I'll maybe accept it. On Buffett, prove to me the following: For each 5,000 oz block of silver that left Scotia or HSBC (or Republic or whomever the heck it was doing duty back then) how many can be correlated directly to long contracts that WB chose (or gave the orders) to acquire **specifically for the preplanned purpose** of holding 'til expiry and physical fulfillment?

So many people have been fishing these waters it's a wonder they don't quite know what it is they're catching. No point in fussing over details, right? We've got fish(???) to fry!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

ElGordo

(01/18/2003; 19:46:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94903)

N Korea might be planning Nuke test

London Sunday Times 19th Jan (subscription needed)A FRANTIC international effort to prevent a nuclear test by North Korea is under way amid diplomatic fears that its confrontation with America is spinning out of control.

Russia and Australia intervened over the weekend with pleas for restraint and America has asked China to dissuade Pyongyang from raising the stakes in the nuclear crisis.

Expert analysts of North Korea have warned their foreign ministries that the drama is unfolding in parallel with the showdown in Iraq and that a nuclear test could be staged within six to eight weeks.

In what one expert has called "the Baghdad scenario", the regime of Kim Jong Il is expected to wreak maximum damage on American policy by timing any move at a critical moment, such as the entry of US soldiers into the Iraqi capital.

"They are choreographing this step by step with the Iraq crisis," said one diplomat. "It's straight from the works of Sun Tzu to strike while your enemy is weak." Sun Tzu, the classical Chinese military strategist, also advocated deception and guile to win victory without battle.

By staging a nuclear test in one of the warrens of tunnels deep under North Korea's mountains, Kim would send an unequivocal signal that he cannot be treated like Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi leader.

The CIA believes that Kim may possess two nuclear devices and the Chinese government thinks he may have five. But there has never been any proof that they actually exist.

A verified test would resolve that but it would also pose a dilemma for America, forcing it to decide between taking military action and striking a deal with a member of President George W Bush's "axis of evil". Its gravest consequence would be to maximise pressure on Japan to develop its own nuclear missiles, destroying the balance of power that has kept the peace in northeast Asia for half a century.

China last week told James Kelly, an American envoy, that Beijing's confidence that Kim did not intend to build more nuclear weapons had been shaken, diplomats said. In a bleak assessment, a senior official told Kelly that North Korea's decision on January 10 to pull out of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty probably signalled a change in intentions.

Intelligence services from six nations have apparently proved unable to find out what Kim's scientists are doing with stocks of plutonium from a Soviet- designed nuclear reactor at Yongbyon. Nor can they trace supplies of highly enriched uranium from a second, clandestine programme.

Mr. Bill

(01/18/2003; 19:55:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94904)

@mikal msg#: 94901

I am sure that Time, being a true American icon, would only poll the politically correct one in 250,000.

Aristotle

(01/18/2003; 20:11:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94905)

Sir Dollar Bill

Goodness, look at that old stuff you've dug up! Knowing what I know now but didn't know then, for my part I'd grade (stand behind) the content as 90-95% (and I'd give it maybe a C+ or B- in delivery. I can be a real bull in a China shop with words sometimes.)

For FOA's part, which begins in your repost at, "A major item that has been part of this US support structure for the dollar was the G-10 policy...," I still find myself standing most firmly (97-100%) behind his content. He's been an incredible fountain of knowledge and generosity. In his absence I'm sure glad to have folks -- dare I name anyone(???)... like Belgian and Miner and MK -- all picking up the slack when some heavy pulling yet needs to be done. On that note, Holtzman needs to raise his voice more, too. Where IS that guy??!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Gandalf the White

(01/18/2003; 20:29:17 MDT - Msg ID: 94906)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003:

AS OF Saturday 01/18/03 20:20 <;-) Denver Time !

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 Settle = $358.1 + $7.0 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a LOW = $350.0
1/17/03 Settle = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a LOW = $355.3 and Sir ROCK is "King of the Hill" !!
===

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines"
LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!!
READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
---
LET the CONTEST CONTINUE !!
<;-)

===
ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

**** $750.0 **** Caradoc (1/17/03; 10:49:20MT - msg#: 94778

**** $419.4 **** The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - msg#: 94798

**** $403.5 **** misetich (1/17/03; 18:25:29MT - msg#: 94815

**** $400.0 **** Sundeck (1/17/03; 04:25:05MT - msg#: 94737

**** $396.4 **** Bulldog (1/17/03; 20:05:57MT - msg#: 94825

**** $390.0 **** Galerider (01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - msg#: 94724)

**** $387.5 **** knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - msg#: 94800

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (1/17/03; 05:12:59MT - msg#: 94738

**** $383.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - msg#: 94791

**** $382.5 **** Hipplebeck (1/18/03; 06:47:33MT - msg#: 94850

**** $379.1 **** ha_tey_o (1/17/03; 07:24:56MT - msg#: 94741

**** $378.9 **** erayboy (1/17/03; 03:05:04MT - msg#: 94729
**** $378.8 **** miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - msg#: 94805

**** $378.1 **** a nation of one (01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - msg#: 94720

**** $375.5 **** balzac (1/18/03; 14:15:59MT - msg#: 94880

**** $374.1 **** Slowman (1/17/03; 06:10:05MT - msg#: 94739
**** $374.0 **** Zhisheng (1/17/03; 09:53:34MT - msg#: 94762

**** $372.0 **** OZ (1/17/03; 02:14:25MT - msg#: 94727

**** $370.5 **** VanRip (1/17/03; 07:59:23MT - msg#: 94747

**** $369.2 **** slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - msg#: 94796

**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750

**** $367.4 **** Kagalaska (01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - msg#: 94721

**** $365.2 **** pilgrims_gold (1/18/03; 10:01:47MT - msg#: 94863

**** $364.2 **** Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - msg#: 94755

**** $363.0 **** luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - msg#: 94795

**** $362.5 **** EagleOne (1/18/03; 14:02:13MT - msg#: 94877

**** $362.3 **** Renny (1/18/03; 05:15:47MT - msg#: 94848

**** $360.0 **** Henri (1/18/03; 15:28:31MT - msg#: 94886

**** $359.1 **** 24carat (1/18/03; 16:10:36MT - msg#: 94889

**** $348.0 **** Topaz (1/17/03; 03:06:48MT - msg#: 94730

**** $274.6 **** harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - msg#: 94792

===

INVALID ENTRIES
---
NONE !!!!!!
====

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.
---

THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February �03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 -----

The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old) goldpiece !!
Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin was
Minted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce.
(Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)
---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
(Rich, Did you see that ?)
===
<;-)

Waverider

(01/18/2003; 20:45:04 MDT - Msg ID: 94907)

Dollar set to prolong its descent for months

http://www.iht.com/articles/83740.htmlSnippit:
"A weaker dollar, it appears, is here to stay. During a week in which the U.S. currency hit its lowest level since Oct. 1999, traders who move billions of dollars worth of currencies around the globe at the touch of a button scrambled to update their forecasts, predicting that the dollar could now fall much further than many had expected even a few weeks ago. The decline continued Friday as the dollar faced a triple-whammy of negative pressures: escalating moves toward a war in Iraq, a further deterioration of the U.S. trade position and several reports that cast doubt on the strength of the American economic recovery."

Waverider: Ahhh....people are finally catching on to what's been said here for months re the US$.

Aristotle

(01/18/2003; 21:59:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94908)

What are the odds?

What are the odds that somebody's gonna misconstrue my metaphorical comments to RPowell about middlemen and boys fetching twigs with jackknives?

I see that trouble could come of it because Rpowell had mentioned CPM in close context with this discussion on bullion banking intermediaries, and I want to make sure that on no account in my analogy was I promoting the bullion banking services over the excellent brokerage services of our host. I was simply and perhaps sloppily trying to bring forth an awareness that seemed to be lacking on the structure we now use bridging supply and demand.

[An aside.......] I won't get deeply into it here, but along that line, a person needs to assess what constitutes true "demand," and also what passes for "supply" in this sector. In appreciation of this, consider that LBMA (i.e., representative of the "bullion bankers" I was "bothering" with in my post) clears about a thousand tonnes in Gold transactions every two days.

My original point was that "lumber megastore" would sure ****seem**** like a natural place to bother with when big money and big Gold is involved, whereas in the world of small potatoes any dank old pawnshop can yield a coin or two from its shelves of hocked and stolen wares.

The enduring lesson is that people with money in size needing to broker an exchange for Gold in size are not finding the satisfaction they would intuitively expect from the bullion banking "megastore" that clears so many tonnes a day in business. The problem, you see, is that all of that tonnage is passing on banker's books -- not grocer's books. Sure, it balances when scrutinized on an institution-by-institution basis, but as an entire System there is no Gold to spare to an outside buyer wanting his Gold on the outside.

Truly, that's were MK and his excellent crew do yeoman's work in the middle ground, making the next-to-impossible task seem almost routine. It ain't easy, and that's why I call on them rather than trying to do it myself -- which would be quite laughable!!

This I hope address the issue more clearly, and gets closer to a resolution for RPowell's comment, "We need CPM for our purchases but does McEwen (a large miner) need a broker to buy 40,000 ounces?"

At the end of the day it's all about connections. Get to know your middleman and stick with those you trust.

Gold. Get you some from a good host. --- Ari

PH in LA

(01/18/2003; 22:42:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94909)

Taking Delivery: Part of the Process? or an outright sham?

OK, Mr. Aristotle,

I'll give a try at "discussing" this question of taking delivery on the comex, even in the face of your arrogantly murky and supercilious answer to Powell.

Most of the scoffers and nea-sayers in the investment world who laugh at goldbugs, claim that every long contract on the comex is offset by a corresponding short contract. This means that metal owed to a long who declares for delivery would have to be produced by whatever means by the corresponding short seller to turn over to the long. Now, let us grant that this might make someone quite uncomfortable... having to supply metal to be delivered. It might even make the exchange itself want to bring pressure to bear on the long in hopes of disuading him from his intention to stand for delivery. However, the whole idea of a futures market is that any long has the right to stand for delivery on his contract. Period. Denying him the right to do so, is to assert, even admit, that the futures market is a sham.

Now, it seems to me that several years ago there was a poster at that other forum (long before this one came into existence) named "White Rose" who decided to take delivery on a single comex gold futures contract as a test, and kept everyone informed on how the process played out. He was given a long runaround but did eventually receive his metal... after a number of months of lame excuses and delays. And, yes, there were additional costs involved... storage, fabrication, shipping etc. It turned out not to be the most efficient, economical or hassle-free way to buy gold, but it did work.

It would seem incontovertable that if a financially well-endowed investor declared for delivery on a large number of contracts and was willing to follow through by insisting on delivery and paying the extra, incidental costs and fees, that somebody, somewhere, would have to produce the necessary metal for him. Now, this would almost certainly have a major impact on price. On the other hand, if one is not allowed to take delivery, the futures market is a joke, hardly fit to serve as price discovery on real metal. In fact, it should be irrelevant to a real market, with real metal.

What say you to this?

GratefulForGold

(01/18/2003; 23:16:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94910)

Miscellaney

Around the Corner (#.94853): I'm not quite sure how I feel about your post. I'm a relatively new poster at the Table and have had little to share in light of the wisdom and thought posted here by the many astute minds that comprise this wonderful forum. Not being a Bush fan, I was not offended by what you posted and appreciated your thoughts. However, in my reading here, I do note that most of what is said is couched in an "old world" civility that generally steers clear of nitty gritty politics. I believe much of the "conversations" that take place here are derived from the contributions of Another/FOA. The "teachings" of Another/FOA are what initially brought me to this forum. The excellent postings and education here keep me returning on a daily basis. I admit, the atmosphere here sometimes is too rarified for my comparatively simplistic mind and I sometimes get weary of the endless Euro debates and highly complex theories. When I encounter those conversations and I'm too tired or hurried to allocate the brain power to wade through/consider/comprehend � then I just use my little key to move on to the next post.

I recall Mr Gresham contemplating (and rejecting) the idea of two forums...one for the "elders" (not his words) and one for "novices" (again, not his words). In some ways, that might not be a bad idea. Some of the conversations here are among peers of a different level of understanding, and I don't think they are necessarily conducive to enlightening very new people to PMs. And, if anybody new takes the time to read many of the posts before he posts here, he would most likely be too intimidated to open his mouth. Well, not to worry, I guess � there are other forums that fulfill that need.

Christian (#: 94854): Where to buy Euros? Although I ended up not buying any (and I, too, didn't want a bank account at Everbank where I had to cash out in US$, even though my account would be in Euros (if I understood their policies correctly)) � I was told I could order Euros through most ANY bank. You can even do it online by going to a bank's home page and tracking it down through the "Currencies" section (if that bank offers that service). I tried, twice, to buy Euros online but my computer crashed each time, so I took that as an omen and didn't follow through. But, I did call my (small town, even) bank and yes, they could order Euros for me and have them in a couple of days. Carrying the "intrigue" on a little (to stop myself from declaring to them that I wanted Euros because I thought the US$ was going to the basement), I just said I was going on vacation. No big deal. (As it turns out, I'm just keeping my US$ to pay bills � all the rest of my "discretionary" fiat went into physical PMs). I'm happy.

Also, it may pay to shop around a little bit. The "premiums" can get pretty high. When I was looking, the Euro was still below parity with the US$ and I thought the premiums were high then. Who knows what they are now? Anyway, hope this helped.

GfG

24carat

(01/18/2003; 23:19:16 MDT - Msg ID: 94911)

COMEX Delivery

The exchange regulations are written to accommodate the business of moving quantities of gold. As such, from my understanding the minimum purity of gold bar required ( % regulation) is 0.925 (sterling gold). So, who, other than a bulk (aka slop mart) entity would want to get a COMEX delivery.

I have no experience in Comex delivery but do have experience in where the rubber meets the road. I myself perfer a kuggerrand and the knowing smirk of 24karat.

Ole Man

(01/18/2003; 23:30:28 MDT - Msg ID: 94912)

******369.90******

My suspicion is the POG will continue to rise after slight consolidation. This will be led by increasing dissention within the USA between Hawks and Doves relative to war in Iraq. The TED spread (T-bills vs Euro $) will lead the way to further declines in the US$. Gold continues in a primary bull market breaking out of the channel of the 1987 trend line. PM shares will move up slowly as USA equity investors confidence erodes.

mikal

(01/18/2003; 23:51:58 MDT - Msg ID: 94913)

@PH in LA

I agree with your reasoning regarding Comex credibility; you have fleshed out solid reasons for an open and honest market. But in practice this has never happened, as history shows through rules changes, scandals and manipulative rigging. I learned this here on the forum from M.Kosares, FOA, Another and from Mike Bolser, Bill Murphy, Chris Powell, Doug Noland, Reg Howe, Jim Puplava, James Turk, and many more. Also that transparency and honesty in implementing set rules and accounting methods is needed in government, markets and industry.
Yours is a most worthy goal.
But in practice this would be like throwing out the baby with the bath water. Only because the one cannot live without the other, like Chairman A.G. and his bubble baths. This is why I tend towards FOA's (Trail Guide's) vision of collapsing paper markets and hold physical only. But before they close the Comex, they will set up as many as possible into paper derivatives- futures & put and call options. If international confidence in the market continues, a change in the rules on margins and position limits may ensue and even a repeat of the "liquidation orders only" rule used at the last PM bull market, or any combination of rules changes "necessitated by circumstances". "Cash only" we have heard would expedite delivery into shorts. Rapidly devaluation of the "cash" would add insult to injury.

mikal

(01/19/2003; 00:11:00 MDT - Msg ID: 94914)

@PH in LA

Me: "Rapidly" should read "Rapid"
Rapid devaluation of the "cash" would add insult to injury, exacerbated by any bank or market holiday or closure or reduction in trading hours (what is left of them). An unattended or busy phone line may not be a problem if you trade online and computer servers are not overloaded and broker sites are fully functioning.

Mr Gresham

(01/19/2003; 00:41:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94915)

Sleepy thoughts

Helping to inform my priorities these days, my simplified thoughts are:

1. A lot of money is going to disappear.

2. A lot of what's left is going to flee to gold and other real things.

3. Hurry up and nail down what liquid amounts are owed you, or that you can cash in, so as to stay ahead of #s 1 and 2. I think I've already taken some hits in that department, but these are unusual times, and I've had no practice to develop habits informed by knowledge. Just getting going on those, thanks to you all. G'nite...

Black Blade

(01/19/2003; 00:43:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94916)

Thar She Blows Again � Gold Bears In Trouble

http://news.goldseek.com/EmergingGrowthStocks/1042847168.php
Snippit:

The MARKET - always eventually fools most of the people. Right now the majority are bearish and nervous. Commercial traders are so hugely short, they have only been more short one other time in history. IF, and it's admittedly a pretty big if because the commercial are usually right - but if the price of gold manages to hold 50% of Thursday's gains and finds support around say $354.50 - the shorts will become extremely nervous. It could even violate fleetingly the $354.50 level - but pop right back up again. Then the shorts will be offside. The horror. They will only go so long before covering. It's one thing to be offside on a long position - but another entirely to be offside on a short. If enough of them start covering - watch out. A massive short position like this cannot be covered in today's gold market. A covering panic could ensue.

Now, we may soon witness something else I have mentioned offhand lately. The "Perfect Storm" in favour of gold prices - a buying panic and a price melt up. Definitely NOT a time to be thinking about being short. I hand out this warning to subscribers one final time. In bull markets you buy and hold the dips. Not try to grab the odd short sharp correction by shorting. If you must, at least WAIT UNTIL MAY. (Although, I don't believe the gold market should be shorted in general for the indefinite future at all). Seasonal profit taking for the big annual move in May is another thing, catching the big swings of the year. Trying to nail 10% declines in between - we aren't smart enough to do that, so why try? Why try to second guess the market when we know - over time - it will always win.

Black Blade: Who says that if the commercial shorts have a huge position then the market will always fall? They have been fooled before and are likely to be fooled again because they tend to misunderstand the fundamentals of the market and instead focus on charts and expects trends by looking in the "rearview mirror". The shorts have been stymied over the last couple of years because the Gold market did not perform as they believe it should have. It reminds me of my exploration days as a geologist when I would come in from the field, compile data, make maps, cross sections, etc. and I then presented the material to the mine engineers they would scoff and say "it can't be because it doesn't fit the model". I would respond "Sorry Bubba but your model must be flawed!" they did not appreciate the frank truth of the matter. That's another reason why I view such technicians as one often quoted gold bear and another alleged analyst who is often quoted by the press with suspicion. The gold bear said that gold would fall based on his analysis of the COTs. But he has said this since gold was at $255 an ounce and continues to say so. The Gold bear who had a good call on falling gold prices since 1996 until gold bottomed even went as far as to claim gold would fall below $65 an ounce. That was fine when the US dollar was strengthening as a "strong dollar" policy was pursued with vigor but the dollar is weakening and poised to weaken much more. So much for models. When we look at the fundamental view of the deteriorating global economy we see clear sailing for a rising price of gold and of course we cannot dismiss the added support for gold based on rising geopolitical concerns. Equities markets continue to weaken as corporate profits and guidance indicate a continued decline, energy prices are rising hitting corporate bottom lines and consumer pocketbooks, the US dollar is weakening, debt (government, corporate and consumer) is rising to record levels daily, gold production is declining while demand is rising, etc. I guess I could try to develop a "model" but why? The big world picture does not follow a preset "model". The world is much too complex for that.

Gandalf the White

(01/19/2003; 00:50:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94917)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !32 (Thirty-two) BRAVE Goldhearts have made the early entries and claimed their POG entry !
THANKS you early birds !
---
AS of 00:40 Sunday 01/19/03 Denver Time --
==

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines"
LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!!
READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
---
LET the CONTEST CONTINUE !!
<;-)

===
ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

**** $750.0 **** Caradoc (1/17/03; 10:49:20MT - msg#: 94778

**** $419.4 **** The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - msg#: 94798

**** $403.5 **** misetich (1/17/03; 18:25:29MT - msg#: 94815

**** $400.0 **** Sundeck (1/17/03; 04:25:05MT - msg#: 94737

**** $396.4 **** Bulldog (1/17/03; 20:05:57MT - msg#: 94825

**** $390.0 **** Galerider (01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - msg#: 94724)

**** $387.5 **** knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - msg#: 94800

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (1/17/03; 05:12:59MT - msg#: 94738

**** $383.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - msg#: 94791

**** $382.5 **** Hipplebeck (1/18/03; 06:47:33MT - msg#: 94850

**** $379.1 **** ha_tey_o (1/17/03; 07:24:56MT - msg#: 94741

**** $378.9 **** erayboy (1/17/03; 03:05:04MT - msg#: 94729
**** $378.8 **** miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - msg#: 94805

**** $378.1 **** a nation of one (01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - msg#: 94720

**** $375.5 **** balzac (1/18/03; 14:15:59MT - msg#: 94880

**** $374.1 **** Slowman (1/17/03; 06:10:05MT - msg#: 94739
**** $374.0 **** Zhisheng (1/17/03; 09:53:34MT - msg#: 94762

**** $372.0 **** OZ (1/17/03; 02:14:25MT - msg#: 94727

**** $370.5 **** VanRip (1/17/03; 07:59:23MT - msg#: 94747

**** $369.9 **** Ole Man (1/18/03; 23:30:28MT - msg#: 94912

**** $369.2 **** slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - msg#: 94796

**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750

**** $367.4 **** Kagalaska (01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - msg#: 94721

**** $365.2 **** pilgrims_gold (1/18/03; 10:01:47MT - msg#: 94863

**** $364.2 **** Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - msg#: 94755

**** $363.0 **** luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - msg#: 94795

**** $362.5 **** EagleOne (1/18/03; 14:02:13MT - msg#: 94877

**** $362.3 **** Renny (1/18/03; 05:15:47MT - msg#: 94848

**** $360.0 **** Henri (1/18/03; 15:28:31MT - msg#: 94886

**** $359.1 **** 24carat (1/18/03; 16:10:36MT - msg#: 94889

**** $348.0 **** Topaz (1/17/03; 03:06:48MT - msg#: 94730

**** $274.6 **** harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - msg#: 94792

===

INVALID ENTRIES
---
NONE !!!!!!

----
THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.
---

THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February �03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 -----

The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old) goldpiece !!
Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin was
Minted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce.
(Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)
---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
(Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003:

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 Settle = $358.1 + $7.0 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a LOW = $350.0
1/17/03 Settle = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a LOW = $355.3 and Sir ROCK is "King of the Hill" !!
===
<;-)

Aristotle

(01/19/2003; 00:55:57 MDT - Msg ID: 94918)

PHinLA, what say I to this??

"...the futures market is a joke, hardly fit to serve as price discovery on real metal."

I agree whole-heartedly!! That agreement shouldn't surprise you (does it???? where have you been??) coming from the likes of me. After all, it's been very near the core message of a great deal of my time spent here trying in good faith to wake up sleepy people who ought to know better.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Aristotle

(01/19/2003; 01:02:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94919)

Sir mikal #94913

Excellent post. I've nothing more to add to that!

Gold. Posted you some. --- Ari

Belgian

(01/19/2003; 02:33:06 MDT - Msg ID: 94920)

@ GratefulForGold # 94910 >>> Complex theories !?

Yes Sir, your #94910, made me think deeply, because you have an "enormous" point there, with the outcry of "complex theories". One should be able to *condensate* all these diverging theories, into a practical, all-embracing, conclusion . May I give it a try ?

The planet's monetary past was about the US$-reserve currency > Gold > Oil and geo-strategical-politics + economies with an increasing "pseudo-content".
Yes, the history of ONE global currency, the US$.
In order to "understand" where this dollar-currency, stands today...one needs to go through this dry piece of history and its multitude of aspects, affecting that dollar.

But, the CPM-chart on the dollar's "decline" is NOT a complex theory to understand. So, one can easely forget about history, when accepting that this chart is correct.

This chart is telling, the planet's dollar-holders, that A/FOA is right about the dollar, reaching the end of its lifetime. The US$ of tomorrow will certainly be "different" than the dollar we all thought to know and trusted so well.

Without seeking any aid from (not so) complex (euro)theories, one concludes, intuitively, that this future dollar needs a "catalysator" to evolve from old-dollar to new-dollar, whatever kind it may be or change from its present reserve-status. The planet's dollar is getting old and tired after having travelled through every corner of the round globe (smile).

The euro-theories, appear to be "complex", because we all have been living so intensely "through" that one and only "dollar" for so long. The dollar is an "evidency" for each and everyone. As evident / essential as water and oxygen. Now we ask ourselves if and to what extend, the water and the oxygen, are polluted and how are we going to "sanitize" it ? Therefore we need "references"..."standards" ! With what do we have to compare the dollar, as to know how old, sick and tired this reserve-currency, really is...

Yep Sir, and it is exactly "here" that many, many different doctors pop up with complex theories (diagnosis) !
A wild variety of Doctors with an economical / political / monetary-financial, diploma and biased point of view.
And here lies the cause for total confusion / doubt.

Is it the globalizing economy that will kill the dollar...?
Is it Another currency...?
Is it a geo-strategic/political mess...?
Is it a new world order...?
Is it a coordinated operation of global central banking...?
Is it GOLD...?

Right...very complex theories, indeed !

Outcome...Unknown !

But if you can conclude that " IT IS THE DOLLAR ", you have made the biggest and most productive step in your analysis.
Than no further complex theory-studying is required to defend yourselve against any possible outcome.

It was A/FOA who made me look at the US$ from an Eurolander standpoint. Suddenly, I think to have understood, how and why, many other different people on this globe, might "change" their view on this "ruling" currency of times. They all have most probably different reasons to change their ming, progressively, about the future of the dollar-reserve.

Asking about how far the globe stands in this process is the same question as asking, how sick is the dollar-reserve ? Accumulating physical Gold in possession is believing that "GOLD" will ultimately be the *consensus-decider* on where we and the dollar, stand.
Asking for "timing" is believing that the dollar is still going to make it. And that its illness will go away.

Unfortunately for this reason, many theories (doctors) are queing up to communicate their diagnosis. Everybody is left alone with his own responsability and judging-capacity.

Confusing, complex theories, shouldn't be allowed to remain complex and opaque. Simple questioning of the *theorist* might solve many problems of all kinds. Make a clear distinction between naked facts and projected theories.
But make sure you understand the "implications" of the facts.

My reflection on your posting was also a bit talking to myself. Regards.

Topaz

(01/19/2003; 03:29:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94921)

joining the dots.

A most interesting half-hours reading this evening, Firstly MK reminds us of the INABILITY of Goldcorp to secure a measily 1.25 Tons of Bullion ( 400 Comex equivalents) on the open market this last December...then Ari et-al engage in a Comex discussion about where to/not to shop for serious amounts of Bullion.

OK, under normal circumstances Comex isn't where the Large Gold shopper would venture (Bars are crook, drawn out process etc) but it still provides an avenue for delivery if all other avenues are exhausted. (a-la Goldcorp)

The way it's shaping up between now and Feb03 first notice day is (a) a PoG way above any anticipated figure allowing the exchange to declare force-majure, or (b) a commercial onslaught to drive it back to $320ish.
(a) disconnects PoG from it's current currency status (papergold) and (b) will "strengthen" the Dollar.
Either way will be unacceptable to the Treasury...could be an interesting 4 week's.

The thing to remember is "delivery" is never a consideration in a falling market but in a rising one it makes good sense.

Topaz

(01/19/2003; 04:21:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94922)

...further,

One thing the BoE series of Auctions DID do, apart from all the speculation, was establish conclusively that the price discovery mechanism undertaken on a daily basis (am/pm fix) was a genuine process as all the Bullion went at or very near the days quotes. (no doubt allaying the conserns of some/many Giants).
As we all sit day after day, year after year waiting for the first sign of a Bullion/Paper price disconnect (paper down-Bullion up)...wouldn't it be a Hoot if, in fact, Comex Paper was driven "to da Moon" only to be knocked back on a daily basis by LBMA...Comex close $800, London am fix $350...HA!

Black Blade

(01/19/2003; 06:48:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94923)

Gold Will Outperform Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Survey Finds

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Top%20Stories%20World&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=worldtop&s=APipvuRaPR29sZCBX
Snippit:

London, Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices will outperform those of other precious metals such as silver and platinum as political tensions, a weakening dollar and concerns of stagnant economic growth spur demand, analysts said. The gold price will average $336 an ounce this year, a gain of more than 8 percent from last year, according to the average expectations of 18 analysts contacted by Bloomberg. Silver will rise almost 7 percent to $4.92 an ounce, while platinum should add almost 6 percent to $571 an ounce. Palladium will sink 23 percent to $260 an ounce, the survey found.

Black Blade: I sure hope these "analysts" don't over work themselves when they dream up these price predictions. ;-)

silvercollector

(01/19/2003; 06:49:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94924)

Headline News........

Trade deficit hits a record 40.1 billion.

(Getting close to that half-trillion/yr. number)

Usul

(01/19/2003; 06:54:59 MDT - Msg ID: 94925)

Bush's gun barrels could end Opec stranglehold

http://observer.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,877669,00.html"If the conflict spreads outside Iraq's borders, oil market analysts say 'it would be difficult to see a ceiling' for crude prices..."

"Should US forces win a swift victory in Iraq, oil company executives will be right behind the troops entering Baghdad..."

silvercollector

(01/19/2003; 06:55:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94926)

Some of the latest developments for Mr. Blix.....

Announcement that the situation in Iraq "is very tense".

Chemical warheads found late last week.

3,000 page "nuclear" document found at scientist home.

High level meeting in the next few days to convince Iraqi leaders to more "co-operative and voluntary" involvement in inspections.

Cavan Man

(01/19/2003; 07:34:27 MDT - Msg ID: 94927)

Large commercial short position

Beware the Black Swan gentlemen. Don't be fooled by randomness.

sector

(01/19/2003; 08:24:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94928)

Jordan Joins Turkey in Denying US Troupe Stationing Rights

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=243They also forbade over flights through Jordanian airspace.

Looks more and more like the President has been stymied in his war efforts.

The only remaining invasion route is through an amphibious assault coupled with a Kuwaiti Southern Iraq entrance point.

This leaves the US wondering if Turkey will just move their two divisions quickly to reinforce Baghdad once Tommy Franks gets under way.

It is highly improbable that the US would keep the war machine rolling if that were to transpire. Fighting Turkey is not something Bush bargained for. Syria would join too, no doubt, and then there is Iran on Frank's right flank.

It gets worse. Rumsfeld is said to be micro-managing each and every vehicle and logistics preparation, each troupe training script and each flight plan. The generals are getting miffed at this [From a Drudge Report this AM].

If and when the heavy-duty killing starts [Other than the 'Micro-waves-from-space' drivel], the generals will do things their own way and that will lead to much bigger military screw-ups than one would normally expect.

What a country.

sector

(01/19/2003; 08:54:46 MDT - Msg ID: 94929)

@ CavenMan The COT Shorts

Some don't have to produce metal, others are foolish copy-catsHarrison [JPM] is probably right that JPM has no risk in their $41 billion gold derivative mountain. They government just gave them the gold...

"Hey you...with the greasy, New York hairdo...and the $3,000 suit...Yeah YOU...with the Maroon tasseled pumps...and the black Porsche Boxter...Here's some gold thingys from the Treasury... Keep the COMEX and LBMA spot price down until I say to let up"!

"Have your boy... Dinsa...what's-his-name, write some code stuff to fool the CFTC mopes. Yeah...everybody at the IMF is on board too"...

So Harrison says he has no risk...he just can't really prove it by playing that tape back on CNBC's Power Lunch.

Having no past risk doesn't mean JPM can ADD MORE shorts tomorrow which would be necessary to keep hammering gold. The JPM gold, coat-tail tuggers who imagine they are brilliant by being heavily short too are not so protected as big bad JPM and they will get crushed as gold continues to rise.

Another way to look at this is that the government helped selected players on the way down but is under no obligation to help those same players on the way back up. Indeed, governments have a nasty habit of abandoning their "Soldiers" if it is expedient. McDonough is gone...one less chagrinned face to worry about.

What the G-10 needs more than anything else is to stop selling gold as quickly as possible and with minimal further damage. Whatever the exact route will be is not known but they will get gold higher in price as a first principle and will deftly attempt to do it behind an outwardly justifiable facade.

The non-JPM shorts will be forced to cover. In so doing they will be forced to dig their own deep financial graves and then be pushed in.

Sacrificial lambs. Cooked geese, it's all the same.

Usul

(01/19/2003; 09:16:48 MDT - Msg ID: 94930)

Break-in at Fed Chief's Residence

http://money.cnn.com/2003/01/17/news/greenspan/index.htm"Initial reports say that jewelry from a second-floor bedroom was taken, but there is no word on what else may be missing, he added"

Is there more to this than meets the eye? The Fed Chairman is said by some to be second only to the President in importance. Yet some petty jewellery thieves got in to his house? Of course, "sometimes a cigar is just a cigar".

Now for a little history:

On June 17, 1972, a piece of masking tape stuck to a door lock led a young security guard to call police to the Watergate Hotel, who arrested 5 men in a break-in at the offices of the Democratic National Committee (DNC). The attempt to plant listening devices and obtain political documents led to charges of burglary and wiretapping against the five, plus former White House aide E. Howard Hunt, Jr., and G. Gordon Liddy, general counsel for the Committee for the Re-election of the President.

On May 11, 1973, charges against Daniel Ellsberg and Anthony J. Russo relating to the leak of the Vietnam war "Pentagon Papers" were dropped following the revelation that Hunt and Liddy had burglarized the office of Ellsberg's psychiatrist, looking for information on Ellsberg.

In 1996, White House email whistle-blower Sheryl Hall allegedly had her locked office in the White House New Executive complex burglarized and sensitive papers taken.

Who stands to gain if the Greenspan break-in is more than it purports to be?

Rumours and predictions of Greenspan's retirement are not uncommon. Morgan Stanley chief U.S. strategist Byron Wien thinks it will happen this year. Greenspan is 76, and his current term ends in June 2004.

There must be no shortage of individuals and groups with a vested interest in gaining an advantage as a successor, or getting the kind of special inside knowledge about the economy that the Fed chief might be expected to have, or exerting influence on the actions taken by the Fed.

Some would like support for the view that President Bush's $674 billion tax cut plan could create such a big deficit that interest rates would have to rise. But others point to the need for businesses to be helped across the "soft patch" by measures that stimulate consumer activity.

White House displeasure that there is continuing turmoil in the economy is evident, highlighted when Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill and White House economic adviser Larry Lindsey "resigned" in December 2002 as the unemployment rate jumped to an eight-year high in November. They were obviously not seen as supportive assets in the strategy for reviving the economy.

Harvey Pitt resigned as head of the Securities and Exchange Commission in November 2002, having been accused of political fowl-ups that embarrassed the White House.

A new independent accounting oversight board was to have former FBI director William Webster as its chair, but he quit after 1 month in November 2002 (he had been selected by Pitt's SEC). Apparently, he had headed an audit of a company whose accounting had come under question.

William J. McDonough announced that he will retire in July as head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He is 68 and has been tipped as a possible Greenspan successor, but I am certain he is not the only one.

Just a simple burglary? Or could it get "interesting"?

Mr Gresham

(01/19/2003; 09:44:43 MDT - Msg ID: 94931)

Usul

Our own Woodstein! Right here at "Think like a criminal" Central! (I was hoping someone would take that story for a spin around the block -- ain't it fun!)

Have you been talking to Deep Float?

Rock

(01/19/2003; 10:12:34 MDT - Msg ID: 94932)

Bush Blamed for Bad Economy

I hear staunch democrats coming out now praising Clinton for 8 years of the best economy in history and Bush blowing it in only two years. As an independent I have no political goals but to call a spade a spade and here's my take on it. It was during the Clinton reign that AG addressed more than once "exuberance" and how he found it hard to believe that the economy sustained as long as it did. It was on Clinton's watch that the Arthur Andersons, WorldCom's and Enrons of the world got away with slack rules governing the ethics of checks and balances.

Sure if you cook the books and lie to the public and give them a false sense of wealth eventually the natural laws of checks and balances will prevail. The last I remember it was during Clinton's last year in office that the SHTF and its been declining every since. Its easy to blame Bush for the economy but its another thing to prove it.

On a side note it strikes me strange that Dick Gephardt was booted by the democrats this past year in fear that he would bring his party down yet he's good enough to lead the democrats for president of the United States. So let me get this right, he's not good enough to lead the democratic party but he's good enough to be a democrat nomination for President of the US.

Hey Blade did I read somewhere that you have an interest in Astronomy? Just curious because I marvel at the way the Universe was formed and how we can learn much from the different stars, planets and galaxies. Its hard to believe that such a universe of law and order and perfect design could be a result of a big bang explosion.

There would be a better chance of 30 tons of metal blowing up in the sky and becoming a perfectly formed Bowing 727 than for a huge explosion occurring billions of years ago and becoming a universe of law and order where eclipses are predictable ect, and the distance between the sun and earth is not by luck in my opinion. Thought I'd throw that in since its Sunday. Have a great week!

Rock

Rock

(01/19/2003; 10:24:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94933)

Re: Usul. Break-in At Greenies House

Nice angle on the story. I would have to think they didn't find his hidden safe. After all I would think Greenie knows better than to leave his bullion laying around because not only would have lost his bullion but the cat would be out of the bag.

Houston

(01/19/2003; 10:30:11 MDT - Msg ID: 94934)

(No Subject)

Greetings, Knights and Fair Ladies.
I received the one ounce silver eagle this week (2nd Place @ $348.00) from our host who conducted the "closest guess to Gold closing price on December 31, 2002 contest". Many thanks for the well wishes but more important is that we all gained very valuable and varied opinions offered by all who participated!

One question: I have only heard brief snips on gold sites regarding the U.S. Government sealing/inspecting contents of all bank safety deposit boxes in 1934 after the FDR call on Gold. Does anyone have validated information on this? Namely, the extent of this, was it nationwide, what agency was involved, what were they specifically looking for (presumably gold or ??), when did it end etc??? Any information would be helpful.

I'm putting my Gold guess @ ****$372.20**** So many, many factors here that it is hard to even prioritize them. The usual suspects are:
WAR: Iraq, North Korea,
Bubbles of credit, real estate, the US dollar, SM
Dominos of South America tumbling
Japanese banks.
Oil prices
Reverse hedging
Chinese buying of physical

If NK does indeed test a NB during the attack on Iraq you might be adding a "1" to price of gold.

My biggest concern is SH may be adding a poison pill to all his oil wells now. I.e. radioactive waste-- making the oil unusable forever. You can put out a burning oil well but I don't think you can filter out radioactive waste in crude. You could probably distill out added biological and chemical agents but not radioactive material.

Gandalf the White

(01/19/2003; 10:49:55 MDT - Msg ID: 94935)

WOWSERS Sir Houston --- Please see BELOW !

You said,
"Greetings, Knights and Fair Ladies.
I received the one ounce silver eagle this week (2nd Place @ $348.00) from our host who conducted the "closest guess to Gold closing price on December 31, 2002 contest". Many thanks for the well wishes but more important is that we all gained very valuable and varied opinions offered by all who participated!"
-----You are welcome, BUT MUST BE at the WORLD END of the mail chain !! It sure took a long time to get to you !!! BUT, now just in time to enter for ANOTHER prize. <;-)
===
You ask,
"One question: I have only heard brief snips on gold sites regarding the U.S. Government sealing/inspecting contents of all bank safety deposit boxes in 1934 after the FDR call on Gold. Does anyone have validated information on this? Namely, the extent of this, was it nationwide, what agency was involved, what were they specifically looking for (presumably gold or ??), when did it end etc??? Any information would be helpful."
---YES, That is a good Question, and I too would like the HISTORIANS at the Forum to give us all the REAL SCOOP ! <;-)
===
AND THEN you post,
"I'm putting my Gold guess @
---- I GOT YA, But RULE #4 now lies SHATTERED in the dungeon !!! <;-)
==
Have a GOLDEN Sunday!
<;-)

a nation of one

(01/19/2003; 10:53:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94936)

an upcoming stock market event

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=INDEX_INDU&v=dmax&w=1&t=l&a=200
If, in the next few days, there is not any big change in the way NYSE shares have been trading in the past several weeks, the 200 day moving average, which can be seen in the chart at this link, will cross below the current DOWJI Average (the blue line). Many traders who believe strongly in charts may interpret such an event as being a strong signal to buy stocks. Some of them will probably even really believe that it confirms a new bull market in stocks. The news programs focusing on stocks will probably shout loud and clear that a new bull market in stocks is occurring. However, look at what has happened in the previous four years. First, the DOW worked its way up over 11,000. Then it went back down to 10,000, and then above 11,000 again to a new high. This high was the last high. Then it went below 10,000, then over 11,000 again several times, crossed below 10,000 slightly, reached up almost to 11,000 again but not quite, then went down way below 10,000. It rose above 11,000 again somewhat strongly but not as high as previously, and then fell almost to 8,000. After this, it went above 10,000, but could not go above 11,000 at all. So it fell below 8,000, almost to 7,000. Now it has come back up toward 9,000 again, and the red line will probably cross over the blue line, as it has done during the previous events similar to this one. If things continue to go as they have been going, some people will be prone to interpret this event as a buy signal, and no one should be surprised if the DOW goes back above 9,000 for a while. If so, the DOW will perhaps move upward toward 10,000 again. But if it becomes established that 10,000 cannot be reached, or that it cannot be maintained, this really will be a strong valid indicator that the stock market is not worth that much, and a new low may very well be established. In that case, a reasonable guess would appear to be that the DOWJIA would probably go below 7,000, almost to 6,000, maybe lower (though not necessarily), some time this year, perhaps before summer. I know that this explanation is a bit wordy, but I have not yet learned a better way to deal with this type of information realisitically.

Mountain Top

(01/19/2003; 10:56:32 MDT - Msg ID: 94937)

*****$375.00*****

There are so many factors lined up to become THE factor, the tipping point for gold, that the choice is almost unlimited. For me at least, the task of selecting among the numerous financial facets, the geopolitical situation, potential energy crisis, metal shortage and the most unpredictable in a sea of unpredictables, human psychology, is overwhelming. It is our good fortune to be able to play the guessing game without having to be correct. All that we really need to know is that it is coming and we must prepare accordingly.

a nation of one

(01/19/2003; 10:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 94938)

@ Rock

Your comment: "Its hard to believe that such a universe of law and order and perfect design could be a result of a big bang explosion."

My response: "It isn't that the universe is of law and order and perfect design, but that we human beings have figured out a way of explaining it that makes it seem that way."

Houston

(01/19/2003; 11:00:55 MDT - Msg ID: 94939)

*****$372.20*****

Lets hope I'm too low!

CoBra(too)

(01/19/2003; 11:03:22 MDT - Msg ID: 94940)

COT's

If I may add my two cents on this phenomenon it is probably that the big commercials can be massively wrong at times and it has happened before. The futures gold paper markets may may be in their last line of defending their paper pricing capabilities.

The data available to the commercials may be totally lacking reality now - as the main driver of the POG is the ever denounced gold investor - and not just the fabrication demand side.

After two decades of officialy demonizing and declaring Gold as a barbarous relic the dishoarding of the private investor was part of the game-plan.

For the last two years - as some early birds found the fiat lacking - not only real backing - today's monetary system came under scrutiny (see LTCM)- the re-investment in gold bullion, be it coins, bars or other forms of bullion was starting a renaissance. Subdued at first, but now that the Japanese and Chinese saver stepped in, gold as an investment class in itself is making a big comeback.

No wonder, after one's savings being shaved by beginning competitive devaluations ... the last safe harbor is and will be, once again, GOLD.

As Gold as the last resort of saving wealth is making a come-back, it may not yet be on the radar screens of the COT's. Too bad - though historically investing in gold has always been the main driver of the metal, as far as I'm concerned - cb2.

a nation of one

(01/19/2003; 11:38:31 MDT - Msg ID: 94941)

Harry Schultz

http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/HSL/Gold/2003/0117.htm
There is a nice little article which you can read at this link. My only question to Harry is, "If you are so good at timing your gold trades, why are you a consultant?" I should have thought you would make all your money trading gold.

There is more to this. Most people, when they try to time their trades, just end up surrendering their money to their broker. Then they have nothing. Sure, a few people do well at it. And in a bull market, it's not too hard too. But in a bear market, it's not that easy, and sooner or later there is always a bear market. Here is what happens when you hold on to your gold contracts: You benefit from the entire move. If you want to see whether you yourself can make 400% by actually selling on the ups, and buying on the downs, do this. Print out a ten year chart of POG, and put a sheet of paper over so you can't see it. Then, move the paper bit by bit to the right, and see if you can figure out, exactly, when to buy and sell. If you do this impartially you will discover several things. One is that there will be times when the market goes up, but you were not in. There will be times when, in order to be in the market again, you have to buy higher than you sold, thus missing out on the difference. Further, chalk up the cost of fees and commissions. Ask yourself if the tax liability is different for quick trades than it is for long ones. Also, if you sell on highs, you will, in effect, be enabling other people to determine your actions. This will make you a weak hand. For the average person, market timing is far more advantageous for their broker's pocketbook, than it is for their own. Of course you should keep enough cash to cover declines. Hold on, and try to buy more when the price goes low, and most people will do better. Oh, and another thing, if you place stop loss orders, what you are really doing is allowing strong players to force you to sell. Just let the thing go as low as it wants. Keep enough cash to cover such declines, tell your broker not to call you, that you'll call him, and at the bottom, buy more. Then hold onto it. If you can't stand not to make the most you can possibly make (400%), that's greed. Greed is something to avoid. Just good, moderate gains is enough. That way, you'll avoid most of the danger. Don't forget to get, of course, before it goes down permanently. And if you take this advice, you're on your own. It's just an opinion, nothing more.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/19/2003; 11:40:26 MDT - Msg ID: 94942)

In bookstores it retails for $14.95. But you know the author! Get it here for $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

a nation of one

(01/19/2003; 11:43:37 MDT - Msg ID: 94943)

correction

My statment: 'Don't forget to get, of course, before it goes down permanently.'

--Should read, "Don't forget to get out, of course, before it goes down permanently."

a nation of one

(01/19/2003; 12:05:45 MDT - Msg ID: 94944)

my earnings

My own earnings in gold for the past eight months have come to 14%. I know that a lot of people have done better. But I will be very glad to make that in any year. It takes almost none of my time, and is not stressful. I don't have to sweat when to sell, or how much I will lose if I take a profit and the price goes higher. I don't make a job out of it. I just want to benefit from the trend I can see occurring. For me, that's what I want. I stay in. This makes me a strong hand. My health is more important than money. I would have made significantly more, but three times I followed my broker's advice. He was wrong each time. Badly. And I knew this, because, when I first met him, he made five predictions, and he was wrong about all of them. He is not an exception among brokers, neither good nor bad. Most of them are like that. I have had the same experience consistently over many years, with numerous brokers. They all make big mistakes and want you to pay for them. In my experience there have been no exceptions to this. What makes it difficult is that I am not perfect myself, and this is true of most people. I have been right in my predictions more often than my broker, however, because I am more intelligent than he is, which is also usually the case with me, since my intelligence is above average. My smartest actions, however, more often than not, except when I bought in to begin with, have been when I did nothing.

a nation of one

(01/19/2003; 12:08:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94945)

i'm not crying

14% over 8 months = 21% annually.

TownCrier

(01/19/2003; 12:11:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94946)

Houston, you will find an avenue to answer your FDR confiscation question here

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/hoppe.html
At the link above, you will find some historical info that may be of use to you.

If you scroll all the way to the bottom of the page you will find info about the in-depth client memorandum assembled by George Cooper and Michael Kosares, about which they say, "This memorandum provides to our knowledge the most detailed and comprehensive documentation on the subject of gold confiscation in the United States assembled to date."

Enjoy your research, you have come to the right place.

R.

a nation of one

(01/19/2003; 12:19:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94947)

(No Subject)

If you sell on highs to make a profit, and the price goes up, not only do you miss out on the difference, but you also pay fees and commissions, both to sell and to buy back in again. True, there is cash in your account that wasn't there before, but your account's net worth is less. This means that you are less well covered on the downside. Sit down and make yourself figure this out with a pencil and a sheet of paper. That old saying, "It never hurts to take a profit," is not true. It is only consistently good for the broker, not for the investor.

R Powell

(01/19/2003; 12:29:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94948)

Delivery from Comex

Aristotle, let me start by reaffirming your vote of confidence for Michael's company. I, too have purchased from CPM and found the service excellent. It was for me also a chance to talk with Mr. Cooper.

I got the impression from your last post that it is your opinion that Buffett bought silver from Comex supplies without ever buying any contracts. This possibility had never occured to me. Why then was there a suit filed against Philbro (Buffett's broker) alleging market manipulation? To use your analogy, the lumberyard owner will not file suit against a buyer of lumber no matter how large the order. Actually, I prefer dealing directly with small sawmill owners. Buffett had 89 million ounces at the time this was filed. Whether he ever got the physical metal or just paper promises for the last 40 million is questionable. Have you any insight here? Also, why a lawsuit? The suit alleged market price manipulation. The price mechanism is the Comex market, not the bullion banks.

That most of Comex trading is settled in cash is also not in question, in fact a guess of 98% of paper contracts being settled on account statements would probably be a fairly close guess. Of that which actually does change ownership, again probably most new owners store in Comex so that physical delivery is again not an issue. But, delivery is possible. Indeed, Sinclair has made an appeal to big money players to do exactly this- take delivery.

My original question was why Mr. McEwen choose to buy from the bullion banks? What other sources are available? Could he not buy directly from other miners or, if he wanted to test only the bullion bank market, why not stand for delivery on a contract as Sinclair has suggested? Why choose to buy directly from bullion banks rather than gain publicity through Comex?

I also want to make clear that I believe the price of both gold and especially silver will go much higher due to the multitude of reasons discussed here daily, but even if all these were to fail, greater demand than production in the physical arena will eventually prevail. This is the one fact that can not be hidden, manipulated, covered over etc no matter how the markets are operated or managed.

I'm also still interested in how much newly mined gold travels directly from producer to user without any Comex or bullion bank contact?
I had originally asked these questions in response to a posting from yesterday by M.K. but I hope anyone interested will feel free to jump in.
Rich

Rock

(01/19/2003; 12:35:49 MDT - Msg ID: 94949)

Re: A nation of one "my earnings"

You speak from a vantage of wisdom.

ElGordo

(01/19/2003; 12:36:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94950)

@Sector

I first came across the Debka site about 3 years ago.
It is completely bogus.

Don't take my comments personally, I'm just saying
from my experience, don't bother reading anything
from Debka, its pure nonsense.

ElGordo

(01/19/2003; 12:51:54 MDT - Msg ID: 94951)

Selling Dollars

Rock

(01/19/2003; 12:52:09 MDT - Msg ID: 94952)

Re: A nation of one

Your comment regarding my comment, you said, "It isn't that the universe is of law and order and perfect design, but that we human beings have figured out a way of explaining it that makes it seem that way."

I disagree, just because the laws of math and science may confirm what our eyes already observe doesn't change the truth of the fact that we live in a Universe of perfect law and order.

Even an uneducated individual on a dark clear night where there is no light pollution could look up at the sky and see the design of stars that out line a perfect tapestry of beauty and perfection. Just looking up at the moon and stars and sun and other planets in our solar system and observing the changing of the seasons year after year from the beginning of when God created time.

I can count on the sun rising in the East and setting in the West every day. That's not an illusion because when two individuals observe the same thing its called truth. Nah, I dont need scientific verification to explain why I believe the way I do rather scientific analysis and mathematics support it. Good intelligence always supports truth.

Cheers,

Rock

ElGordo

(01/19/2003; 12:58:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94953)

Weaker Dollar = Inflation?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA03B8C6E%2DCD4B%2D4439%2D80FE%2D3FB549DE75D5%7D&siteid=mktwLOS ANGELES (CBS.MW) -- Higher prices could be on the horizon for consumers -- affecting everything from cars to apparel and consumer electronics -- if the dollar continues its plunge.

"If you want French wine, you'll have to pay more. If you want to travel to Europe this summer, you're going to pay more," said David Gilmore, a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics, a currency advisory firm. "Consumers can be somewhat at a disadvantage."

Since early 2002, the dollar has lost 12 percent of its value against a basket of currencies, with half of the decline coming in the last three months, according to J.P. Morgan. Mounting concerns about a war with Iraq led to the most recent slide, strategists say.

"It's very clearly related to war risk," said Larry Kantor, J.P. Morgan's global currency strategist.

The dollar's biggest drop has been against the euro, falling almost 6 percent against the currency since reaching parity in mid-November. The euro recently traded for $1.0653. The dollar also lost ground against the Japanese yen and several other Asian currencies.

"Imports will cost more," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo. Also, "A falling dollar discourages foreign investment in the U.S., so stock and bond prices are less likely to rise."

Arcticfox

(01/19/2003; 13:04:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94954)

Great site to keep an eye on....

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm..

Old Yeller

(01/19/2003; 13:41:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94955)

The commercials

Are backed by the government,until it's no longer politically expedient to do so.

"Governments exist to maintain order.To achieve that,
governments are quite willing to allow the
few to suffer'so that the many will carry on contentedly.
If ever a government is presented with the choice between
either preserving domestic paper gold or domestic fiat
currency,but not both,there will be no choice at all.
Millions of registered voters must,at all costs,be kept
content.Indeed ,the comparatively few who suffer in the
forsaken markets will be portrayed by the government as
having gotten their just desserts.They will be described
as get-rich-quick gluttons for whom the hard working
citizenry need devote no sympathy.This is classic
Machivelli,and it will work next time as it has worked
countless times in the past."

Holtzman,USAGOLD.

Sometimes it's not the Hunt's or the speculative longs
in TOCOM palladium that get the shaft.It all depends on
the size of the problem and the policy solution arrived
at to protect the real perpetrators of the scheme.

The government.

EagleOne

(01/19/2003; 13:54:39 MDT - Msg ID: 94956)

a nation of one

How long have you been at this...actually putting money into gold or equities?

GoldCoaster

(01/19/2003; 14:25:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94957)

@ Rock

Hi Rock,a little earlier on you said:"I can count on the sun rising in the East and setting in the West every day. That's not an illusion because when two individuals observe the same thing its called truth."
I always thought that the sun is "stationary" and that the rotation of the earth makes the Sun "appear" to rise and set.Many individuals cant see that but it is still the truth.

Trojan

(01/19/2003; 15:13:44 MDT - Msg ID: 94958)

@ a nation of one Re: Your # 94936

http://www.zealllc.com/2003/autopsy2.htmYour comments about the next Stock Market event are interesting.

For everyone reading this and a nation of one, in the link above Adam Hamilton has just wrote a BRILLIANT article as he usually does. He has taken the last three Bear Market Rallies. (Greenspan's cutting of Rates) (9/11 Aftermat Rally) (October Rally) and converted them to a index of 100 and then produced graphs on the three of them together. The picture it paints is quite fascinating.

Adam Hamilton is one of my favorite Analyst's in that he combines Knowledge, with a unique and inovative way of seeing things.

Have a look.

His Verdict "The Rally Is Soon Over" RIP :-)

a nation of one

(01/19/2003; 18:32:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94959)

@ Rock (1/19/03; 12:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 94952)

I respect your view, but I do not agree with it.

a nation of one

(01/19/2003; 18:39:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94960)

@EagleOne (1/19/03; 13:54:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 94956)

You ask: "How long have you been at this...actually putting money into gold or equities?"

--I bought my first shares before men first walked upon the moon.

a nation of one

(01/19/2003; 19:07:48 MDT - Msg ID: 94961)

@ Trojan (1/19/03; 15:13:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 94958)

Thanks. I have placed the link into a file which I refer to often.

By no means do I propose that the dow will not go down. Indeed I think it will. But how? And when? And why?

What your man is doing is pretty much the same as what I was doing. His reasoning is more profuse. And its detail is richer. He and I were both thinking about the same past events in similar ways, and each of us reached some conclusions, which, I don't have to add, seem completely different. I would say, however, and it is true, that my comments were about the possibility of a rising DOW because, with regard to the possibility of a declining DOW, no comments were needed. My motivation was to prevent discouragement among readers of this forum, not to firmly predict whatever I might happen to think is going to occur.

a nation of one

(01/19/2003; 19:13:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94962)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=dmax
Can there be any question that soon it is going to take even more dollars to buy and ounce of gold?

a nation of one

(01/19/2003; 19:15:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94963)

DOW

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=INDEX_INDU&v=dmax&w=1&t=l&a=200
Is there any real question about where the DOW is ultimately headed?

a nation of one

(01/19/2003; 19:18:18 MDT - Msg ID: 94964)

pog

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=dmax&w=1&t=l&a=200
Exactly what kind of a doubt is there, about what is happening to the dollar value of gold?

Black Blade

(01/19/2003; 19:30:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94965)

Re: Rock - Big Bang or Big Dud?

Rather than get into a complex discussion of the "Big Bang" theory and discussing the mathematical basis for a rapid inflation of matter expanding outward from a point source or singularity and the observation of the Doppler effect and redshift, etc. The theory has explained the existence of observable phenomena but still leaves open a lot of questions. This also has left open the question of whether the universe will continue to expand, remain static, or collapse. The big bang model of the universe, originally suggested over 60 years ago, has been developed to explain a wide range of observations about the cosmos. A major element of the current model, added in the 1980s, is the theory of "inflation," a period of hyperfast expansion that occurred within the first second after the big bang.

A new theory of the universe proposed by Princeton physicist Paul Steinhardt and Neil Turok of Cambridge University suggests that space and time may not have begun in a big bang, but may have always existed in an endless cycle of expansion and rebirth. The theory proposes that, in each cycle, the universe refills with hot, dense matter and radiation, which begins a period of expansion and cooling like the one of the standard big bang picture. After 14 billion years, the expansion of the universe accelerates, as astronomers have recently observed. After trillions of years, the matter and radiation are almost completely dissipated and the expansion stalls. An energy field that pervades the universe then creates new matter and radiation, which restarts the cycle. The new theory provides possible answers to several longstanding problems with the big bang model, which has dominated the field of cosmology for decades. It addresses, for example, the nagging question of what might have triggered or come "before" the beginning of time.

What's fun about these theories is that as more information is collected they can be fine tuned or altered fit the data. Of course none of these theories are ever likely to be proven and of course more theories are likely to emerge. What we can say is that the universe exists. The question about the universe is: was there a beginning or is it infinite. For researchers this is the Holy Grail. I guess we could say that all matter was formed in some cataclysmic event(s) and that makes us "star children" in a sense. No matter how you look at it, it is a fascinating subject.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/19/2003; 19:46:35 MDT - Msg ID: 94966)

Company Forecasts Expected to Be Dim

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=2070080
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors are bracing for a tidal wave of profit forecasts from U.S. companies this week, and there is a growing belief the flood will bring more bad news. As fourth-quarter results roll in, investment professionals will mostly skip over last year's earnings tallies and go straight for forecasts. After disappointing projections from companies, including software maker Microsoft Corp., Wall Street isn't anticipating much good news. "People have a pretty good sense of what happened in 2002, so they're looking to see how 2003 and even 2004 will shape up," said Peter Gottlieb, portfolio manager for First Albany Asset Management. "The big fear on Wall Street is that the mild, tenuous recovery we've had is going to dissipate. I think guidance will be muted."

Black Blade: We are witness to a major economic decline and a secular bear market. Few living today have ever seen such an economic collapse. The most many have seen is the stagflationary 1970's, but whet we are seeing now is just the beginning of an economic nightmare not seen since the 1930's. It's going to get very ugly and those who have not taken personal responsibility for their economic survival are going to suffer greatly. Not that I feel any sympathy for them but it's going to be an "interesting" study in human behavior. The weaklings will point and blame others for their predicament. It will be the ultimate "ant and grasshopper" fable in living color. Government, corporations and consumers are drowning in debt. Even with rising debt they were spending like drunken sailors all the while taking on even more debt. This is unsustainable. We are about to see the fourth year of a major bear market and another the following year. Our rulers will panic (state politicians already are panicking � take California's Grey Davis for example), corporate leaders will panic (you think you saw a lot of perp walks last year?), and of course consumers will go completely ape s*&$! With rising energy costs that will continue to rise no matter the outcome of the Iraqi situation and even a possible resolution of the Venezuelan strikes (though a civil war is a very real possibility). In the meantime we can observe the continuation of this week's "confession season" as corporations meet or beat vastly lowered analysts expectations. As always get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months� expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start (actually add to) a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. It looks to get very ugly.

ElGordo

(01/19/2003; 20:08:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94967)

uh oh...what else is there?

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Top U.N. officials said Baghdad disclosed it found four more empty chemical warheads like a dozen others discovered last week, and said there had been "some progress" Sunday in talks to win greater Iraqi cooperation with arms inspectors.
__________________
Big Bang is Bogus, I'm for the new "steady state" theory, world
without end amen. Its always been here, infinity has no beginning
or end. Cheers

a nation of one

(01/19/2003; 20:26:51 MDT - Msg ID: 94968)

once upon a time

In Ancient Athens, during the plague in which Pericles died, when everyone else was also dying, even the staunchest and most highly respected traditions of greek culture were completely abandoned. People became animals again. They did everything imaginable to survive. Civilization completely disolved.

Black Blade

(01/19/2003; 20:27:56 MDT - Msg ID: 94969)

Oracles, Soothsayers & Fortune Tellers

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
Watching The Debt Levels

Snippit:

There is also the enormous debt burden on consumers and corporations that still overhangs on the economy and the markets. Companies will need to rebuild their balance sheets. Consumers are now in the process of rebuilding savings as job prospects look grim and debt levels crimp the monthly budget. State and municipal budgets are also in a crisis mode especially in California and New York. In California, the governor has just proposed a massive $8.3 billion tax increase. States will be raising taxes this year, which will trim more money from consumers take-home pay. States are raising everything from income taxes, property taxes, sales taxes and sin taxes to raising fees on services. Higher state tax burdens will offset many of the gains coming from the President's proposed tax cuts.

Because of rising debt issues, increased state taxes and a continued weak job market, I believe we will see the consumer retrench even more this year. If that happens, what remains on the horizon to act as a stimulus for the economy this year? The mortgage, real estate, and consumption bubbles literally rescued the economy after 9-11. What takes their place? It has to be either government fiscal spending or business capital investment. As discussed earlier, I don't see capital spending improving until business profitability is restored, balance sheets repaired and pricing power returns to the business marketplace. I just don't see that happening this year. If profitability improves, it will come only from cost cutting, which from a macro sense, reduces economic growth. Higher profitability and prosperity aren't consistent with general cost cutting.

Therefore, I believe that there is a high probability that this year could become the first time since the Great Depression that the stock market experiences four back-to back years of consecutive losses. There are simply too many unknowns out there with geopolitical risks and increasing credit default risks at the government, corporate and consumer levels.

Black Blade: Another good read by Puplava. He gives his outlook for the economy for 2003.

Cytek

(01/19/2003; 20:38:08 MDT - Msg ID: 94970)

Iraq and the Hidden Oil Tax

I am starting to read reports from serious analysts that oil could easily go to $40 or more if a problem develops in Iraq and does not get resolved in Venezuela.
Some say it could rise to $50 in the short term. I think their analysis has some credence. In the long run, oil will come down significantly. But it is the short run that could affect the economy.

Venezuela is the fifth largest producer of oil. Some are beginning to compare the "revolution" there with the overthrow of the shah in Iran. After the shah left, oil production dropped by two-thirds, and is still only 50% of what is was. Revolutions can and will cause serious economic disruption. The proposals by Chavez to re-organize
their oil companies to punish his foes and favor his left-wing cronies are a disaster for oil production. The longer this goes on, the more concerned we should get.

A serious increase in the price of oil acts like a tax increase on the economy. It will slow down not only the US, but the economy of the world. It is a serious drag on world growth. While we will see OPEC and other oil producing countries step up production, filling in for a lost Iraq (if Saddam trashes his oil filed as he leaves)
and a reduced Venezuela will not happen overnight.

All these factors weigh an economy down.

I believe the flat growth in the money supply is probably temporary. There have been such periods before, although not accompanied by a clear softening of consumer spending and debt. I am betting we will get a stimulus package from the federal government sooner rather than later. The probability is that the crisis in Venezuela gets
resolved and Iraqi oil fields are not allowed to be destroyed.

The best outcome for the economy is for Saddam to leave, avoid an expensive war and leave the oil fields intact and even see them allowed to increase production. We need to see a resolution to the crisis in Venezuela. The worst case is that the oil fields get destroyed as Saddam assumes a Samson complex and pulls the walls down with him, while Venezuela deteriorates.

If the worst case Iraq scenario happens, the Fed will find the keys and open the door to the printing press. Just as the stimulus from the last rate cuts made the recession far less severe than it could have been, the Fed will attempt to forestall or lessen the next one.
But the damage will have been done, and the stock market will not act kindly. John Mauldin.

Pizz

(01/19/2003; 20:42:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94971)

Inflation argument

http://www.globalstockalert.com/rm.htmJust stumbled upon this November article. Good read for the pro inflationist. Nothing seems to be happening that would make me think the fundamentals for this analysis are in error.

Pizz

Trapper

(01/19/2003; 20:59:01 MDT - Msg ID: 94972)

Sir Rock

After reading your post it came to me that Geo.W. Bush is going to change his name..or have it changed for him. The new name will be much like his fathers name Geo.Herbert Walker Bush. The president's new name will be George W. "Herbert Hoover" Bush. I was not fond of the choices this time but voted for GWB as the lesser of evils choice, I new that the one who got elected was going to get himself "Hoverized". The president of the Titanic I'm afraid..the trap had been set and now it's the Dems who trip the trigger. Too Bad. Because of the ignorance of the voters we will get liberals for the next 20 years again. Man and I really loved this country too. Live small.

Kagalaska

(01/19/2003; 21:13:27 MDT - Msg ID: 94973)

Spot Price -SILVER

Silver looks to be providing leadership tonight.Spot and Spike would seem to be in the neighbors yard, hope they don't get sent home too soon.

Cytek

(01/19/2003; 21:16:33 MDT - Msg ID: 94974)

Iraq, U.S. Data Boosts Gold, Hits Stocks

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Financial News

Reuters
Iraq, U.S. Data Boosts Gold, Hits Stocks
Sunday January 19, 10:43 pm ET
By Bill Tarrant

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Gold hovered near a six-year high on Monday, the dollar struggled and Asian stocks fell after renewed fears about an Iraq war and a spate of poor U.S. economic data cast fresh doubts about a global economic recovery.

Gold was trading around $356.60 an ounce in Hong Kong, little changed from Friday, and was poised to enjoy more volatility in the coming week, with Iraqi news and a weak dollar dictating trends, dealers said. It hit a six-year high of $358.50 on Thursday.

Cytek - with headlines like this the sheaple will soon figure out where the smart money is going. Except the smart ones from this forum have known about this for years. I say keep buying physical , while you still can. I'm with Blackblade on this, stock up on those can goods, stash some extra cash, and even get a backup heating source , like a wood burner. What if a major supply line of Natural gas was cut off for an extended period? Or some crazed terrorist decided to blow up some underground gas storage facility. I would take weeks to replentish the supply while people freeze to death.

TownCrier

(01/19/2003; 21:24:02 MDT - Msg ID: 94975)

Black Blade, here is that Puplava article, a bit closer to home

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/puplava/20030111.htmlExcerpt:

It is apparent from the graphs shown above [see article] that the US economic and financial system is headed towards a major train wreck. It is only a question of timing. Nobody in Washington or Wall Street sees it, for they are all either Keynesian or Monetarist or a combination of both. Even the bastion of the bond markets, Pimco, is calling for Keynesian-style stimulus and monetary reflation. Wall Street wants the government and the Fed to use all means at their disposal to ward off a deflationary debt collapse.

Therefore, if the government has to run deficits into eternity and spend wildly, then so be it. If the Fed has to expand credit, monetize assets, intervene in the financial markets by propping up stock prices or peg interest rates, then get on with it. Wall Street has a big stake in keeping its version of financial capitalism alive. The world of structured finance is in danger of imploding and the danger of this implosion has been deemed unacceptable in financial and political circles.

The danger here lies with inflation, instability, volatility, and ultimately, the collapse of the world's present monetary system -- something the world has not seen since the days of John Law. It is apparent that there will be no foot put on the breaks as credit will be supplied in ample quantities to help levitate financial assets of all types...

(see url above)

Cytek

(01/19/2003; 21:24:16 MDT - Msg ID: 94976)

BLUE LIGHT SPECIAL

Read in Sunday morning's news that KMART's board is going to vote on dismissing all common shares, over 519 million. That's right folks, everyone that invested in KM over the last few years gets "0", worthless paper. They will issue new stock to secured creditors, banks and bond holders and then emerge out of bankrupcy. The investors who bought and held in their portfolios and IRA's get the big BLUE LIGHT SPECIAL. Hmmm, wonder if those investors will shop at KMART ever again.

a nation of one

(01/19/2003; 22:01:16 MDT - Msg ID: 94977)

kmart

And they call it 'equity.'

Waverider

(01/19/2003; 22:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 94978)

Japan appears headed to 0% yields on bonds

http://www.iht.com/articles/83818.htmlSnipppit:
"If you think yields on Japan's government bonds cannot go any lower, investors beg to differ. Most are betting that deflation accelerates and yields fall even further toward zero percent. While good news for punters, the trend could cause problems for Japan's economy. A big drop in long-term interest rates could wipe out income gains for financial institutions, which invest primarily in bonds, and leave them and the economy in even worse shape. When investors speculate about financial crisis here, it's a surge in bond yields they fear. Japan's public debt load is nearly 40 percent bigger than the economy. Deflation, which increases the inflation-adjusted value of debt, makes Tokyo's debt load even larger. If investors get antsy about the government's balance sheet, they may drive up rates and slam the economy. But then a plunge in yields could be bad, too. We think a financial system crisis would more likely be the result of an extreme fall in long-term interest rates wiping out income gains for financial institutions, than the more orthodox causal effect of a sudden surge in long-term interest rates," said Takehiro Sato, an economist at Morgan Stanley. With the market expecting deflation to worsen, it's a pretty safe bet that Japanese yields will grind lower this year. Mind you, they don't have very far to go. The benchmark 10-year is yielding 0.88 percent, not too far from the all-time low of 0.73 percent reached in October 1998. The two-year bond is almost at zero percent, yielding 0.06 percent.

Waverider: Meanwhile the Nikkei's not a pretty site tonight - off 2%.

TownCrier

(01/19/2003; 22:17:07 MDT - Msg ID: 94979)

The investor's bottom line

For those who can't find the time necesary to read through Jim Puplava's expansive commentary, here is the bottom line that might be of most interest to you.

----Excerpt--------

The economic and financial risks are high. However, the geopolitical risks are even higher. I can't think of a year where there are so many wild cards that overhang the market.

The US survived 9-11 by expanding the printing presses at full throttle and going deeper into debt as a country. Since 2001, M3 has grown by $1.5 trillion. It is simply mind-boggling to consider all the permutations and possibilities that exist with so many wild cards hanging over the economy and the markets. With this many what-ifs on the table, it would be by the grace of God and a miracle if none of them are played. I will name the major ones. Any single one of them could throw a forecast way off course. Each one is a major confidence shaker.

War with Iraq and/or North Korea
A major terrorist attack that follows a war with Iraq
A broadening Middle East War
The fall of the House of Saud
Sovereign debt defaults, i.e. Brazil
A spike in energy prices due to terrorism or war
A major default of a money center bank or major US financial institution i.e. Fannie/Freddie
The failure of a major derivative player such as a bank or hedge fund
A spike in credit spreads due to growing bankruptcies

Given all of these uncertainties, where should one invest this year? I believe the "Next Big Thing" is going to be in "things" such as commodities. The big winners in this decade are going to be gold, silver, and energy. Other commodities from sugar, coffee, cocoa and grains, to other soft goods will also be winners. Commodity prices will rise because of two trends: a declining US dollar and rising populations and industrialization of developing economies.

The time for paper is over and the rise of "things" has just begun.

------end excerpt-----

Black Blade

(01/19/2003; 22:29:23 MDT - Msg ID: 94980)

Low inflation? Only if you're an economist

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={A9664F72-7233-41ED-895D-1B49666C08DC}&siteid=yhoo
Snippit:

NORTH PALM BEACH, Fla. (Bankrate.com) -- The second consecutive monthly decline in the core Producer Price Index has spurred more concern about the potential onset of deflation. A lack of inflation? Hardly! An increasing rate of inflation amid a further decline in nominal interest rates has anyone living on a fixed income understandably uptight. All figures are unadjusted data, which as stated on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Web site "are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay," as opposed to seasonally adjusted data that eliminates fluctuations due to climate, holidays and production cycles.

Although the core CPI, which excludes the volatile sectors of food and energy, was up 1.9 percent in 2002 vs. a 2.7 percent advance in 2001, I don't know too many people exempt from food and energy costs. Food costs were up 1.5 percent last year, but the index for fruits and vegetables increased 4.9 percent. Who said it doesn't cost more to eat healthy? Energy costs accelerated 10.7 percent last year. Since it gets mighty cold this time of year in most parts of the country, my guess is that many households are feeling a draft in their wallets every time they turn the thermostat up a few degrees.

Transportation costs rose 3.8 percent, but gasoline costs were up a staggering 24.8 percent in 2002. Presumably much of this is attributable to unrest in Venezuela and uncertainties surrounding potential war with Iraq. Nonetheless, think about that the next time you're tapping your foot at the pump while filling up the SUV.

Housing costs were up 2.4 percent, and even water, sewer and trash-collection service costs jumped 3.2 percent. Many families send their kids to private school and are trying to save for a college education. Education costs climbed 6.6 percent, including a 6.2 percent jump in the category of "tuition, other school fees and child care."

Medical care is another staple of every household, and costs have increased here, as well. Somewhat surprisingly, the index for prescription drugs was virtually unchanged, though I'm sure there are many that will dispute that. Hospital and related services led the charge, advancing 9.8 percent.

Black Blade: YES!!! I have been pointing out for years that the BLS is BS. The statistical massage with phoney baloney filters, hedonic deflators, seasonality, etc. renders the BLS data utterly useless and meaningless. It has been used to deceive the US public and rip off elderly citizens on Social Security while absconding with the tax for the General Account while paying out a few miserly crumbs to the Alpo eating recipients.

Trojan

(01/19/2003; 23:09:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94981)

I Detect A Sea Change In Attitudes To Bush

I was just reading a column in the NY Times by Frank Rich called "Joe Millionaire For President"

I think it reflects a much more critical look at the President's Policies.

The same critical look other countries around the world have had for months. I also think this problem is not helping confidence in the Us Dollar.

The end of the Article:

Nor does anyone know what vanquishing Saddam and then governing Iraq will cost in either dollars or lives.

Lawrence Lindsey, the chief White House economic adviser, was fired after he put the bill at $100 billion to $200 billion. But William Nordhaus, the Yale economist, puts the Lindsey estimate at the low end, with the high end being $1.6 trillion over a decade.

Whatever the number, the cost of the war isn't being factored at all into the budget proposal the White House will send to Congress, according to USA Today.

Yet even with that huge sum unaccounted for, the tax cuts and deficits are already so out of control that budgetary allotments for homeland security are being cut back.

As for the American troops to be thrown at Saddam, remember those leaked Pentagon war plans from last summer that capped the total at 250,000? This week ABC's John McWethy reported that the number had escalated to 350,000 before the battle is even joined.

Mr. Bush's rhetoric says we can have it all � lower taxes, better schools, a war or two or three, civil defense � without pain. But the numbers don't add up, and when the expanded war becomes a reality, we'll see a bottom line that not even the smoothest politician's bedside manner can obscure.

While we wait, an anxious nation whiles away the time with "Joe Millionaire," a "reality" TV show in which a sweet-talking con man charms a bevy of credulous women into believing he will give them a fairy-tale ending.

And why not? It's a perfect reflection of the reality of this moment, right down to its predictable, all too inevitable, denouement.

Topaz

(01/20/2003; 03:03:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94983)

http://www.smartmoney.com/onebond/index.cfm?story=yieldcurve

Hey Black Blade,
It's a curious thing this inflation question - of course any "number" is going to be a reflection of the Bond Yield (see link-play movie) which is trending on a 10 yr down cycle. The argument that commodities will rise falls a bit flat imo as most all comms flow through the $ on a supply/demand basis and the current move to export your deflation with this head-fake Gold run will surely result in lower comms prices across the board.

You guys will no doubt be bombarded with "inflation" articles from now until...well, for some time but the reality is you're about to pay the price for all those years of exorbidant privilige as WRC in the form of a deflationary collapse.

The Euro doesn't have to do a thing...just be at the ready to pick up the pieces.

Thanks for being here BB.

Felix the Cat

(01/20/2003; 03:35:20 MDT - Msg ID: 94984)

****$ 360.5****

War? oil? the devalued of $? ---NO!
Only one thing can let the POG be rising-is--The one's CONFIDENCE on Gold!
In shortly, I think it's time for POG to be correction for next JUMP!
1st Feb 2003 will be the lunar new year. In Chinese Gold Market, is still higher than SPOT about US$3/oz. We should see more, after the holidays of lunar new year, the markets of Asia.

Thanks

F. C

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/20/2003; 04:23:24 MDT - Msg ID: 94985)

New TOLL FREE PHONE NUMBERS for our INTERNATIONAL CLIENTS.

http://www.usagold.com/phone.html

Living Across the Water, or Downunder? No worries, Mate.
Your access to gold is an easy phone call away.

This international information page is for our clients and friends just like you.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals has recently fulfilled gold orders for clients in

European Delivery New Zealand
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and,
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Belgian

(01/20/2003; 04:29:25 MDT - Msg ID: 94986)

Politico-Financial economies....

No euro-referendum in UK this year !

Whatever the public explanation, might be...we see more evidence, again, that the "totality" of economies is now almost, totally, dominated by, nothing but, political-financial forces. Politics, hand in hand, with financial maneuvering and determination of what should be called "economy" but has almost nothing to do with "real" economy anymore. Be it socially-oriented Euroland or debt-oriented dollar block.

That's why Gold must be seen through "political" glasses in the first place. The only way to speed up the final destination for Gold is by taking it "physically", in possession.
The dollar is doing the same thing with oil. Amen.

makcumka

(01/20/2003; 05:44:13 MDT - Msg ID: 94987)

****358.0****

I believe it will be the start of the housing bubble burst that will push POG to the new heights, from which it will never return. Unfortunately, the bubble is still in existence and it will still be some time before it bursts. So I'll stick to my highly edumacated guess of 358, just like last time.

P.S. Sir Gandalf, thank you for all your hard work. Let's see the total number of entries above 175 this time!

Boilermaker

(01/20/2003; 06:10:29 MDT - Msg ID: 94988)

Cytek msg#: 94970 Iraq and the Hidden Oil Tax

Cytek, Your statement
" A serious increase in the price of oil acts like a tax increase on the economy. It will slow down not only the US, but the economy of the world. It is a serious drag on world growth. While we will see OPEC and other oil producing countries step up production, filling in for a lost Iraq (if Saddam trashes his oil filed as he leaves)
and a reduced Venezuela will not happen overnight.
All these factors weigh an economy down. "

is generally true but I see it (a large increase in the price of oil) as necessary in the long run to stimulate the new technologies that will eventually create alternatives to low cost ME oil reserves.

I view the ME oil reservoirs as similar to the Western Central Bank gold reserves. Oil is wealth much like gold. When oil is produced and consumed faster than its discovery then we are in a non-sustainable situation that must come to grief in the form of higher prices. When central banks lend or sell their gold reserves to create a false sense of fiat well-being we are also on a non-sustainable path that will come to ruin their fiat. Just as low prices for oil in the recent past have increased consumption and reduced the finding of it so has CB gold dishoarding reduced gold finding and extraction. Most of us at this forum expect gold to break out of its long period of undervaluation and I expect the same for oil (and natural gas) to come for similar reasons.

When we try to perpetuate a low oil price we are guilty of the same mis-guided short term thinking that motivates the CB's gold manipulation. Higher oil prices will reduce demand, increase finding and stimulate alternative energy sources. This will come regardless of our actions or inactions but it is preferable to have it occur gradually to prevent economic chaos. My theory on gold is that higher gold prices will reduce demand and increase finding and production until an equalibrium is reached that will be the point where the % annual sustainable world economic growth is equal to the annual % increase in above ground gold in the reserve system. This is the balance point needed if we assume that we don't find suitable substitutes for gold.

The energy crises that are predicted by Black Blade are virtually inevitable and in my opinion will be the direct result of low prices over many years. Another and FOA have described the relationship between oil and gold at great length however I don't recall that they predict the liklihood of oil substitutes as I do.

Please be aware that I am biased on both the price of gold and the price of oil and NG. Last year I invested some of my gold stock winnings in a 10% interest in two O&G wells that were sucessfully completed and producing. That good fortune followed three dry holes in prior years. I've just antied up for 10% of two more offsets to the producing wells. These wells are in the Knox formation in Holmes County Ohio which has about a 50% find rate. Dry hole costs for these 6000 foot wells are about 125K and completion costs about 110K. The typical productivity of these wells and the associated dry hole risks can only be justified with oil and gas prices at or above current levels as evidenced by the continued low rig count in Ohio and the US. It's a gamblers game but I like to play.

Boilermaker

Gimli_

(01/20/2003; 07:39:50 MDT - Msg ID: 94989)

Beware Oil and Gas Well Investment

Boilermaker: I had the same vision as you that fossil fuel will be even better than gold as supply wanes and demand continues to grow worldwide. In the mid-90s I invested in over 25 wells in various oil and gas projects, mostly in the same area yours are being drilled. All of the wells produced some gas or oil and were completed, except two oil wells that hit saltwater over 10,000 feet down.

Now several years later in spite of unanticipated very good spikes in natural gas prices, only two gas wells have nearly paid back my original investment, and the rest have been and abismal loss of tens of thousands of dollars with about half now being closed and holes plugged back up.

Remember too that those nice front loaded tax deductions from drilling costs, etc. are later offset by taxes on your production if you have any, so the taxes saved are eventually paid if the well makes money.

All I can say is make sure you get actual copies of the long term project results of any oil and gas drilling company before you give them a dime.

drawmax

(01/20/2003; 08:09:53 MDT - Msg ID: 94990)

****426.2****

The most impact (in a positive cents {pun intended})for the price of gold will come from the masses finally waking up to the fact that nothing they are being told to depend on ie: the dollar the government etc. is based on truth. The truth will set us free.

(01/20/2003; 08:55:52 MDT - Msg ID: 94991)

War in Iraq?

A couple of weeks ago, The Traveler posted a message here wherein he postulated that the true reason for the administration's war fever is that Saddam Hussein has offered to sell oil for Euro rather than FRN's...

I am personally convinced that is the truth.
Can we have an informal poll among the esteemed Lords and Ladies here at the table?
How many here find this explanation plausible?

Rock

(01/20/2003; 09:09:10 MDT - Msg ID: 94992)

Re: Blade & Nation of One

Blade, thanks for your knowledgeable and thought out dialog. I knew I'd get close to a comprehensive solution from you and given the depth of such subject matter time wouldn't allow too much more elaboration as you have given. Thanks again, that was good.

Nation of One: You may disagree with me kind Sir and I do respect your opinion even though I may not agree with you on certain subject matter I think we can both agree we're are on the same page when it comes to the precious metals market. I find comfort in the common ground we are unified.

One of the things I enjoy about the castle is that most of the Knights and Ladies are scuba divers as opposed to snorkelers. I'm a deep person myself, most people I speak with in public are what I call snorkelers, they barely go deeper than the surface.

There are five levels of communication, most never pass the first few, I hang out on numbers four and five as much as possible.

1) Clique's (examples: good morning, have a nice day, how are you doing?)

2) Facts and Figures (exchanging info, weather, football game)

3) Opinions and Judgments (now we're getting below the surface)

4) Feelings (I'm troubled by something you said a while ago)

5) Maximum Love and Truth (this deep level is when truth is spoken and respected, when its spoken at length, where touch and feelings are poured out.

Have a great day,

Rock

Black Blade

(01/20/2003; 09:25:30 MDT - Msg ID: 94993)

World Markets Go Negative

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The World's equities markets finished lower on Monday though the US market remains closed for the Martin Luther King holiday.

- Black Blade

(01/20/2003; 09:52:07 MDT - Msg ID: 94994)

Our Contest, the Swiss Confederation and the European Union

I wouldn't be without my Financial Times in the morning -- an intelligent commentary* on the world of which only a handful of Americans avail themselves. I rarely get through the front section by the time my breakfast is complete and I begin the business day.

*This morning's distasteful photo-art of Cary Grant's endowment aside -- even the FT, it seems, can be guilty of going overboard to increase circulation.

As some of you know, I have taken an interest in the politics of Europe of late and made a comment or two here to break some new ground. I believe the European move toward a single government to be the most important political story of the 21st century's infant years. In the dust raised by a dozen major stories all occurring at once, I think decades from now this will be the one featured in the history books.

This morning the Times publishes an article on its editorial page which delves into the relationship between France and Germany and what their differing visions of the future Europe might mean to the overall union, its citizens, and the world at large.

Skipping over a very long discussion on the positions of the two nations, the following quote toward the end of the piece fits nicely with our Contest price -- the Swiss Confederatio -- and ties the current European conundrum into a tidy bow for those looking for a starting place in understanding the complex negotiations now in progress.

"France remains committed to a global projection of its power. French politicians of left and right envisage the EU evolving from being the world's largest economic grouping into a political and military power capable of balancing the U.S. But as French diplomats like to say, Germany subscribes to the view of Europe being a 'grand version of a greater Swiss Federation,' essentially neutral towards the outside world."

The distinctly Gaullist approach of the French no doubt proceeds from the right being in power in that country. One wonders how a Trichet ECB chairmanship would actually look. Should we prepare ourselves for a "strong euro policy?" And I wouldn't get too hung up on the German position as the FT outlines it, in that German politics these days has a distinctly greenish tone. That could change. . . .

But back to my reason for posting this: The Swiss Confederation is an interesting study in that several states (cantons) with distinctly different ethnic (Italian, French and German) hues came together to form a single republican state -- a state by and large still in operation in terms of its construction on the same terms. Perhaps I was wrong about the U.S. model being one the Europeans should study. Perhaps it would be better to stay closer to home. Can the euro be what some Europeans would like it to be without a strong outward manifestation? The Swiss model says on thing. The American another.

At any rate, offering the Swiss Confederatio as the Contest prize is fitting given the debate in Europe. It's future owner can take comfort in the fact that after over one hundred years this roughly one-fifth ounce coin still retains its purchasing power no matter the parade of currencies over that period carrying various national seals. It survived continuous wars on that continent, the German nightmare inflation, a myriad of French franc devaluations, more than one collapse of the British pound and every dissolution and amalgamation one can think of -- including what's going on today. One hundred years from now it will still faithfully perform the service to its owner it is providing at present.

Politics and economics to enliven the mind. Gold to calm the soul.

May the best guess win. . . .

mikal

(01/20/2003; 09:57:03 MDT - Msg ID: 94995)

That's interesting about the euro, so any pieces of that currency for oil puzzle are welcome music.
It's a jumbo puzzle.
Total Assets of leveraged power in the ME region include:
Below ground- oil, water, Saudi gold, unique soil and conditions for farming olives, figs, spices, drugs, etc.
Above ground- weapons of war, gold reserves, currency reserves, factories, refineries, drilling & pumping stations, pipelines, people, religious promises(heaven or blessings to family or absolution of sins)

Black Blade

(01/20/2003; 10:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 94996)

BP To Cut Around 1,000 Jobs In Non-Alaskan US Operations

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030120/1210000529_1.html
Snippit:

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- U.K. oil and gas giant BP PLC said Monday it is cutting around 1,000 jobs from its non-Alaskan U.S. operations.

Black Blade: BP does its part to contribute to the growing "Bone Pile" by adding 1,000 well oiled "bones".

Belgian

(01/20/2003; 10:44:38 MDT - Msg ID: 94997)

@ RS

*YES*, I think that euro for oil might happen.

Could it be that the dollar and the euro are in a process to divide Arabian oil between both of them ??? Dollar gets Iraqi oil (+ some other) for US-import and excess oil to be sold in dollars or euro to any other taker? Euroland trades with Saudi Arabia/Iran (Russia) in euro ?

In such a scenario, the US can accumulate euro-exchange reserves and the rest of the globe can decide in wich currency ($/�) it wants to buy Arabian oil (Russia will follow). A compromise between two rivaling currencies living in harmonious competition.

But will GOLD stand in the way for such a compromise to materialize ? Depends on how much US-treasury Gold is left.
Depends if the US sees an advantage in having/using golden euro-exchange reserves.

The advantage of co-existing euro-dollar currencies is that the globe's economies can "balance" without extreme shocks or collapses.

Isn't it remarkable that Iraq co-operates more and more, when pressure rises ? Nothing seems to provoque Iraq anymore ? For who is Blix working (US or Euroland's agenda) ?

kahulik

(01/20/2003; 11:08:21 MDT - Msg ID: 94998)

****** $373.50 ******

******* $373.50 *******

I suspect the gold rally will continue. Even though the PMO oscillator is overbought,it should stay that way for a bit longer. PM stocks need to catch up with the gold price to correct the current divergence. Are we going to see the general February seasonal weakness in commodities this year? February then could be the start of a needed correction in the gold price.

Gandalf the White

(01/20/2003; 11:09:05 MDT - Msg ID: 94999)

DID anyone else notice --- CNBC has TOTALLY changed the FORMAT !

The current data of the markets which was shown in a corner stack --- IS GONE ! Looks to be a BIG DOWN DAY, but no one would know it from the talk that is being made.
AND, they said that they were going to talk about ALTERNITIVE investment methodologies like GOLD !!!
"Toto, things are different here !"
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/20/2003; 11:16:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95000)

OOPS !!!

BECAUSE the Markets are CLOSED !
A HOLIDAY you dumb Wizard !!
<;-)

goldenboy

(01/20/2003; 11:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95001)

@RS: Euro for oil as reason to attack Iraq!

Well, this puts the definition of "Weapons of Mass Destruction" in a new light. Substitution of Euroes or Gold or anything for US $ as a trade currency is certainly not good news for US FED. Mass destruction of the dollar does follow. My guess, though, is it just another straw on the camel`s back, with the lure of cheap oil being the load that breaks the camel`s back.

White Rose

(01/20/2003; 11:25:46 MDT - Msg ID: 95002)

CNBC always does this on American holidays

When the US markets are closed, and the European markets are open, CNBC just uses the main European format. There are big differences. Often, the European feed tells the truth about the American dollar and the gold price. The American production always lies. Trust me, your familiar screen layout will be there tomorrow.

By the way, remember that MLK spoke out heavily against the Vietnam war in the last year before he was murdered by the FBI, US Army, CIA, et. al. This opposition to war has been edited out of most versions of his life prepared for TV. "Why should the black man assist the white man in killing the yellow man?" -- A question to ponder while the US prepares the murder hundreds of thousands (if they get in the way) to steal the oil of a sovereign nation.

Black Blade

(01/20/2003; 11:43:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95003)

Daily Market Report

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
An abbreviated gold market often leads to an abbreviated Daily Market Report. However, I did find some important news though the U.S. markets were closed. We sure do live in "Interesting Times".

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/20/2003; 12:25:18 MDT - Msg ID: 95004)

Hot Commodities

http://www.forbes.com/global/2003/0120/040.html
Snippit:

A good contrarian reacts to this development with the notion that now would be a great time to sink some money into commodities contracts. To make the case for gold and grains we turned to Renee Haugerud, operator of a smallish hedge fund in New York with a big commodities position, Galtere International Fund, Ltd. Investors are plunging like lemmings into bonds and real estate at the moment. She says you should stay out of those rat holes: "There are lots of opportunities to make money right now, but they're not in the traditional asset classes." Her thinking is that as the world's wealthy population ages, and U.S. baby boomers scramble to fund kids' educations and their own retirement, money will slosh around in search of decent returns--but stocks will fail them.

Even after the market's stomach-turning descent, stocks remain pricey--the S&P 500 is between 30 and 50 times trailing earnings, depending on what definition of earnings you use. The same demographic trends, Haugerud avers, will keep low-end wages rising. Manufacturers are tapping out productivity gains and will push through price hikes. Prices for commodities as diverse as gold and grain likewise will have to rise because they are now barely high enough to cover production costs.

Black Blade: She pushes commodities contracts but the point is that the demographics are changing and commodities are undervalued. My preference is I would rather have "one bird in the hand than two in the bush".

monTROZ

(01/20/2003; 12:50:24 MDT - Msg ID: 95005)

*****365.0*****

*****365.0*****

Prognostication (contains forward-looking statements�)

The most significant events for gold in the next year?

My crystal ball has been cracked since I dropped it in the punch bowl after the last contest.
But I'll shake it up and see if I can get the hula girl to dance.

The first event will be crossing the $400/Oz. point. That will be a big psychological event. The media will report it as a milestone and lots of news will focus on gold. It'll probably take a quick drop after that just to mess up traders and give an opportunity for the media to misinform people.

Then the big event will be the collapse of a big bank, mining company, or even a major government.
Gold trading will be temporarily halted until new rules are formulated.
As the glitter settles around the palm tree, I see clearly that my gold is not going to change.
One Tr.Oz. of .999 fine will still be the same at the end of the year as it is now.
The dollar is going to be a different story, but that's not for this contest.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/20/2003; 13:09:56 MDT - Msg ID: 95006)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. In your book, The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership you start the chapter by saying "Who you do business with is one of the most important aspects of gold investing." Why is that?

MK. Most, if not all, of the progress an investor makes towards realizing his or her goals with respect to gold ownership hinges on that relationship. Unbiased, objective advice from one's gold advisor is a key element. So are market information and education. Pricing, product selection, fulfillment and on-going support also rely on that relationship. Above all, it is extremely important for gold buyers to match their objectives with the type of gold they buy. Positive results in all of those areas depend upon a strong relationship with a gold firm. That is why it is important to spend some time finding the right one.

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

MK. The biggest trap investors fall into is buying a gold investment that bears little or no relationship to his or her objectives. Take safe haven investors for example. That group makes up 90% of our clientele, and probably a good 75% of the current physical gold market. Most often the safe-haven investors simply want to add gold coins to their portfolio mix, but by the time they finish talking with a typical national firm, they might end up in a leveraged gold position, exotic rare coins, or being diverted into silver or platinum. Others drift into gold stocks or gold futures which in reality are proxies for real gold ownership and could actually act opposite the intent of the investor. There's nothing wrong with any of these non-physical investments per se, it's just that none of them is really a safe-haven. The investor should bear this in mind. The question investors must always answer for themselves is "How will this investment serve me should the economy or financial markets suffer a major disruption?"

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/20/2003; 13:12:43 MDT - Msg ID: 95007)

Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call USAGOLD - Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115

Black Blade

(01/20/2003; 13:18:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95008)

Another Artic Blast

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=2
Arctic air will blast in across the northern Plains and Northeast once again Thursday and Friday as record lows may be challenged. Storms will be fast moving and generally weak as they track from the northern Rockies to the southern Appalachians. Sunshine and above-normal temperatures will remain west of the Continental Divide.

Black Blade: Expect energy costs to rise as consumers and companies compete for fast depleting NatGas inventories.

(01/20/2003; 13:36:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95009)

Closing Gold Price of Shanhai Gold Exchange (20 January 2003)

is 95.89 Yuan/g for 99.99% pure gold.

http://www.gold.org.cn/indexe.htm

This should make about 360.3 USD/oz

http://www.gold.org.cn/hsb2.htm (conversion table)

Kitco price is 355.80. What is happening?

Gandalf the White

(01/20/2003; 13:45:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95010)

Sir ge ......

ge (01/20/03; 13:36:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 95009)
Closing Gold Price of Shanhai Gold Exchange (20 January 2003)
is 95.89 Yuan/g for 99.99% pure gold.
This should make about 360.3 USD/oz
Kitco price is 355.80. What is happening?
+++
Sir ge
Please see the morning posting from Sir Felix the Cat !
Felix the Cat (1/20/03; 03:35:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 94984)
AND the OTHER board may be on HOLIDAY also !
<;-(

Max Rabbitz

(01/20/2003; 13:50:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95011)

The Enemy Behind Our Enemy

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/analysis.htmThere are many players in the world power game and it may be that the western values of individual rights are only a passing aberation and fantasy. The Saddams of this world are laughing.

Trojan

(01/20/2003; 13:50:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95012)

Iraq The Disputed Evidence AND The Next Twelve Days

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2677315.stmWell, folks the next 12 Days will prove of Great Interest To the Gold World and the World.

January 20TH To February 1ST:

January 20TH : See Link Above: It pretty well spells out the evidence or lack of it and the issues that will or will not be resolved.

January 21ST to January 26TH : Iraq needs to start to answer some of the unanswered questions and/or do something different than the Status Quo. Example - Allow scientists to be interviewed in private, Etc.

January 27TH : Hans Blix reports to UN (Monday)
(Very Important Event for other Nations)

January 28TH : President Bush's State Of The Union Speech. Very Important Indicator.

January 29TH : UN Meets in private. Extremely Important as to what is next.

January 30TH : Opinions form and Nations speak out.

January 31ST : Bush and Blair meet at Camp David.

February 1ST : Start of the War month or not ?

The markets should be very nervous the week of January 27TH to the 31ST.

This could be a very exciting Gold Week.

Looking at all the facts and clues that I see my opinion as of now is that the UN will favor more time be given to the Inspection process. (Except for USA and Britain) Bush and Blair finalize things on Friday and Saturday. The President if he doesn't show a change of direction in his State Of The Union speech will decide definitely by Monday February 3, 2003 on WAR.

Right now I'd rate it 85% that WAR is on. Get ready as it will be a Wild Ride with many SURPRISES and RISKS.

God Help Us ALL

Lothar of the Hill People

(01/20/2003; 13:51:40 MDT - Msg ID: 95013)

****** $361.10 ******

Shumar the ancient and wise has examined the entrails of the holy albino bat from deep within our ancestrial cavern. He sees that war or peace will be the next great event affecting the price of gold, but he does not discern the outcome--he sees only shadows and vague shapes.

We will talk of this again. I am Lothar of the Hill People.

TownCrier

(01/20/2003; 13:53:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95014)

The prevailing wind blowing gold higher

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256CB40064E3E0?OpenDocumentMineweb HEADLINE: Hedging halcyon days are over

JOHANNESBURG � The current strength in the gold price may have helped the market to temporarily exorcise one of its biggest demons; hedging. The latest hedging survey by London-based consultancy Virtual Metals, shows hedging at its lowest level in six straight quarters, a trend pundits believe will continue for some to come...

...gold producers collectively have been one of the largest sectors of investment in the gold market. ... Aside from the benefits for securing favourable project finance from risk averse banks, hedging also became hugely profitable for gold producers and bankers alike, who began to exploit the hedging margin provided by the spread between low gold-lending rates and high interest rates.

While hedging is a bet on a falling gold price, the closing of hedge positions that has characterised the gold market over the last year is a sure sign that producers are bullish on the long term prospects for bullion.

Can they be tempted back?

Andy Smith, gold analyst at Mitsui Metals in London ... believes a terminal case of poor liquidity and a lack of depth in the gold market, will leave hedging below its hey-day of the 1990s.

"I'm forecasting that gold liquidity - the depth of gold derivative markets, gold's 'moneyness' if you like - will probably not recover on any price scenario, so there will be less hedging (than there was in the late 1990s) at any mix of price, interest rates, volatility or local currencies."

Ian Cockerill, chief executive of Gold Fields, South Africa's largest unhedged gold producer, says his firm is one of those groups unlikely to return to hedging "in the foreseeable future". "Why sell forward today if you believe the price is going higher. It doesn't make any sense," said Cockerill.

-----(see url for full article)------

Read this one.

R.

Cavan Man

(01/20/2003; 13:54:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95015)

@ ge

That surely must be the beginning of the long trumpeted bifurcation. Please pardon my cynicism and scepticism. It is due and it is time (I think) to fish or cut bait.

Liberty Head

(01/20/2003; 14:19:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95016)

****$360.5*****

I believe expansion of credit leads to an expansion of slavery. The price of gold will continue to rise as more folks learn what life inside debtors prison feels like.
Home/debt consolidation refi loans with high negative amoritization abound. One by one, people are going to discover the value of staying out of debt and keeping reserves of cash, gold, and food in hand.

All hail Black Blade.

Cheers

TownCrier

(01/20/2003; 14:34:08 MDT - Msg ID: 95017)

HEADLINE: Buba rebufs calls for it to sell forex reserves

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030120/economy_bundesbank_reserves_1.htmlBERLIN, Jan 20 (Reuters) - The Bundesbank reiterated on Monday its foreign exchange reserves were not up for grabs, rebuffing suggestions that part of them should be sold to finance business initiatives or repairs after recent floods.

The German central bank said the reserves played a vital role in underpinning confidence in the euro and any sale would require the approval of the European Central Bank.

"In conclusion, the bulk of Germany's currency reserves are not available for 'alternative' purposes," the Bundesbank wrote in its January monthly report.

It added that earnings from its gold and foreign currency holdings, which it said were worth 89 billion euros at the end of September 2002, formed a major part of its yearly profit, most of which is transferred to the government.

The central bank pointed out it was prevented from selling its gold reserves by the 1999 Central Bank Gold Agreement.

It said that even when the agreement expires in September 2004, it could only sell off its gold gradually ...

------(article at url)---------

Having gold reserves, and the flexibility to sell it in times of need, is better than not having it to begin with. This is as true for nations as it is for individuals. The Central Bank Gold Agreement (dominated by Swiss action) has certainly done no harm to the market's recognition of gold as a robust asset, including the recovery of its price to date. A September 2004 extention of the Agreement (dominated perhaps by German action this time) will likely do more good than harm for the future of gold simply because it's in the Eurosystem's best interest to foster healthy market recognition for the value of this important asset. Bring it on.

R.

Black Blade

(01/20/2003; 14:43:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95018)

Personal finance: Investors take a shine to gold as fears rise

http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=36026445&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:

Falling stock markets, predictions of recession, fears of a full scale war in the Middle East and a weak dollar all add up to one thing - a huge rise in the price of gold.
A wave of buying by private individuals in recent weeks has sent the price rocketing through the $350 an ounce mark to a six-year high. The rush on the part of people throughout the world to convert their savings into something hard and tangible has destroyed the arguments of those economists who have been arguing that gold as a store of value is past its sell-by date.

They may have persuaded Chancellor Gordon Brown of their case - he famously sold off half of Britain's gold reserves at an average price of $275 an ounce - about 70 per cent of the price he would get today - but ordinary men and women in the streets, souks and bazaars have obviously not been listening. Net investment in gold has nearly trebled in the past year and the practice of converting cash into gold, normally associated with India, Japan and Middle Eastern countries, is spreading to the UK.

Black Blade: The article does take a few swipes at Gold investment though. However, this does remind me of CNBC's Ron Insana's recent comments about high net worth individuals buying physical Gold in quantity (Farfel's "Velvet Rope" scenario?). Also the Japanese housewives who are apparently investment geniuses compared to the UK's Gordie Brown. Then there are the Chinese people who are routinely buying out physical Gold as soon as the metal hits the retail establishments. Then there is the report that the US mint sales of Gold Eagles selling as much as three times the number by the 15th of this month vs. the whole month of January last year (sorry no link). As these "Times" get more "Interesting", I suspect that PM investment will only surge much higher.

Off to the Gym!

Boilermaker

(01/20/2003; 14:54:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95019)

Gimli msg#: 94989)

I agree that O&G well investments are risky at best and I remember losing a wad back in the late 70's when limited partnerships were drilling on leases that had almost no chance of being economic, ie., your 2 for 25 breakeven well experience. Most of these were just tax driven and the operators had none of their own money at risk. Some were sold to pay for "exploratory holes" for producers who wanted to use someone else's money for exploration of a large lease holding. If a partnership well was productive they would drill the rest of the lease with their own wells.

The bottom line is that US O&G wells can't attract much investment $ even with current high prices. We need $50 oil and $10 gas to get the US going again.

Cheers,
Boilermaker

Trojan

(01/20/2003; 15:08:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95020)

Sinclair Replies To Smith and Prechter

Just received by Mr. Sinclair in my Email Box

That Sinking Feeling: Deflation in Goods and The Dollar
==============================================

Re:Chairman's Corner - Monday, January 20, 2003

That Sinking Feeling: Deflation in Goods and The Dollar

Author: By James Sinclair, Chairman & CEO Tan Range Exploration
==============================================

A rebuttal to "Gold & Gold Shares," opinions issued this weekend, January 19, 2003, by my respected colleagues Andrew Smith and Robert Prechter separately and for various reasons reviewed.

Many economic commentators agree that we are at a major turning point. I agree with that. However, I argue that most analysis of where the economy is headed is wrong because of a fundamental misunderstanding about two crucial things: deflation and the dollar. This has implications not only on the US economy and whether we are headed for another Depression, but also the price of gold and the direction of equities markets.

On Thursday January 16th the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the CPI (the consumer price index, the government's most widely used measure of inflation) declined 0.2%. The dollar fell on the day.
This new number started a widespread discussion about deflation and its impact on the US economy. Many commentators leapt on this new data to cry that the major threat to the economy had just shifted from inflation to deflation. Some (notably adherents of Robert Prechter) warned of a 1930s-style collapse of the economy into Depression.

However, an article in the 1/17/03 Wall Street Journal moved beyond simply the headline number, and stressed an important and growing split between the two dominant sectors of the economy: goods and services. Prices for services rose 3.2% in December of 2002, from the previous year, pushed up primarily by rising medical care costs but also increased by tuition, homeowners' insurance, and rising charges for routine services.

But prices for manufacturing goods, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, were down 1.5% in December 2002 from the previous year, compared to a year-over-year drop in November of 1.6%. It was the largest decline in such prices on record since 1958. Last year's drop included lower prices on everything from cars to computers to clothing for toddlers.

Will this send us into a 1930s type depression? I think not. Three important elements bear highlighting:

1. The divergent trend of prices for goods versus services has been in place for a considerable period of time. This event is not a new development.

2. The order of causal events is quite different from the 1930s.

3. The financial policymakers are ready and willing to act to prevent another 1930s-style collapse and can do so, with ramifications.

It is worth clearing up a few misconceptions.

Deflation, to be the new kid on the block must be defined as the following: a contraction in the volume of available credit or money (the monetary aggregate or M3) that causes a decline of general prices. That is the proper definition of what a deflationary depression is all about. So it is not just a decline in prices as is popularly understood. This helps to clarify the events that led to the Great Depression.

In 1929, the stock market crash led to the rapid and broad-based collapse of financial institutions (particularly commercial banks), which in turn caused a sharp contraction of monetary aggregates. This series of events contracted the supply of money and credit resulting in the contraction of prices of goods and services.

Another often unnoticed aspect of the Depression is that the existence of the Gold Certificate Ratio. This Gold Cover Clause limited the reaction of the authorities. This tied the use of monetary aggregates. The old style Gold Cover Clause mandated restrictive policy via increased interest rates rather than expansionary when the aggregate value exceeded the value of gold by 55%. Stated in other terms, the value of the gold held represented by gold certificates held by the Federal Reserve had to equal 45% of the total value of the monetary aggregate.

Simply stated the Central Bank in 1930 was required to contract rather than expand the monetary aggregate. In the 1930s, this restriction was in place as the commercial banking system collapsed. The spiral then in place tightened the noose of monetary policy just when it should have been totally accommodative. Today, as Governor Bernanke states, there is nothing to prevent the Federal Reserve from creating money at will. I � will � add yes, � that is correct, with ramifications.

The major difference this time around is that the Federal Reserve is willing to sacrifice the dollar to save the economy. Credit has been expanded significantly (consider the real estate market and personal credit card debt) and interest rates are low. This leads financial policymakers to crank the presses and expand monetary aggregates (M3).

Generally, central bankers want to crank the presses as much as a farmer wants to burn his barn full of this year's harvest. But that is what they (and Treasury officials) are going to do: they are going to burn the barn"they are going to let the dollar fall.

As evidence, consider two key recent speeches. On December 19, 2002 Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan made a speech before the Economist Society in Washington to assure business that we will not see a repeat of the 1930 to 1934 "Deflationary Experience," � which was � a textbook event. Those conditions are simply not what is out there now. Chairman Greenspan and Federal Reserve Governor Bernanke assured the listeners that they had the tools to inflate the prices and if they had to, they would use those tools to reverse the move of the price of manufactured goods from the negative category. Monetary aggregates, or as Governor Bernanke put it, the "electronic money Printing Machine" has no restraints. Read it and see that what I am saying is absolutely correct.

Bernanke is correct. There are no restraints now to the expansion of aggregates. There is however one thing that will reflect it. That is the value of the US dollar. Chairman Greenspan, in his December 19, 2002, speech told us that there is a rescue mechanism for the US dollar when it needs to be utilized. That device is GOLD. Here and now, I want to go on record telling you that Gold is coming back into the US Dollar within five years. Its form of remonetization will be a modernized and revitalized Gold Cover Clause not tied to interest rates, as it was as in 1929 - 1930 as the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, but tied to the ability to expand M3 directly.
In 1930, it was the contraction, not the expansion of monetary aggregates that was the mechanism that reduced the prices on services as well as goods. That is a huge difference from today. That difference will create significant different market implications not understood so far as I see by the commentaries of my respected colleagues, Mr. Smith and Mr. Prechter. The 1930 experience is not out there now and probably will not be out there at all! Economically, what exists now that will impact markets is a unique event of significant differences not generally understood by the analytical group. The new gold community is literally terrified due to lack of understanding and their respect for these two respected honorable gentlemen who are bearish based I believe on incorrect interpretation of the economic/market causal factors now and in the 1930s. The gold share community therefore is motivated to sell, at the market, whenever they see their own shadows. The definition of their own shadow is their worst fear or classic deflation that simply does not and will not exist this time around.

What is the future of the price of gold?

The answer hinges on the dollar. If the dollar declines, gold will rise. The inverse is also true, but I believe that there is no case now for dollar strength other than short-term rallies from oversold conditions natural to all markets.

As we know, the value of a real estate investment is determined by location, location, and location. The US dollar, the US dollar and the US dollar will now determine gold's value as indicated by the USDX (The US Dollar Index). As the USDX declines, gold will rise.

This editorial, IMO, offers significant recorded historical fundamental evidence with clear definition of the condition, deflation, to respectfully rebut those who claim (such as my honorable and respected colleagues Robert Prechter and the Elliott Wave technical analysts and Andrew Smith in his $310 to $385 prognosis) that we are headed into a Deflationary Depression and taking the price of gold down.

Gold in fact recently touched $360, a significant level. Gold has gained its price level not because of any public participation. Buying gold shares does nothing for gold bullion price. Buying gold coins does nothing for gold bullion's price. Trading in paper gold futures does nothing for gold bullion's price. Trading in gold options does nothing for gold's price. Instead, those who are responsible for the recent, and probably future, of the price of gold price are the Asian and Islamic buyers. Their trading desk managers understand technical analysis so it is no surprise that these technical levels are being hit, reacted from and proceed to the next, one after another.

Thus the dichotomy between the strong gold price and the recently weaker gold shares can thus be easily explained: because almost the entirety of the public participation is focused on gold shares and the professional (Asian and Islamic) buyers are focused in cash gold bullion itself. Gold shares are likely to rally as individual investors see the fundamental support built in to the price rise cash bullion. It is not as if one cannot feed into the other but, in my opinion, the following is certain:

- Gold will not go significantly lower for any significant amount of time from here!

- Gold will trade over $400 in 2003

- The US Dollar is your measure of what gold will do now and into the foreseeable future until we maximize this entire major bull market!

Certainly, it is correct to sell 1/3 of your gold share position using strict Technical Analysis for price objectives. My position speaking to the entire gold community and not to a private clientele is that those two points now will be the broader $373 and the final point of the first wave of a 5-wave bull market in gold which will be over $400. In no way have I have moved away from the sell 1/3 program, but only adjusted to what I feel the community can handle efficiently. What others do with a private clientele is of course personally communicated, more active and preemptive.

The most popular interpretation of the Elliott Wave is, IMO, wrong both on its Elliott Wave count as well as the interpolation to the economic phenomena as a duplication of the 1930 events. It is wrong, IMO, in its prediction of the gold price and economic performance.

In conclusion:

Financial policymakers have a different attitude (aggressive) and tools (namely cranking M3) than they did in the 1930s to fight this present unique type of price decline in the price of manufactured goods which is not a classic deflation

- These new tools spell fundamental support for a major bull market in Gold.

- The bull market in gold is just beginning.

- The US dollar is the one major leader that will determine the direction of gold.

- Therefore the recent opinions offered by respected, well intentioned and well known advisors concerning the advent of a new depression may well misguide the gold investor into a liquidation at an inappropriate time and price.

Aristotle

(01/20/2003; 16:50:03 MDT - Msg ID: 95021)

Sinclair's assessment from Trojan's post

Begging your pardon, but I think Sinclair puts too TOO much emphasis on the dollar itself in his prognosis for Gold's future. He says, "The US dollar, the US dollar and the US dollar will now determine gold's value as indicated by the USDX (The US Dollar Index)."

Sure, the fate of the dollar will definitely play into the big picutre, but at it's core it's international exchage rate affects only the dollar-denominated *PRICE* of Gold. This says nothing of its *VALUE*. In the classic example from a Turkish perspective, the price (lira) of Gold has rocketed, and yet it's value (relative to other tangibles and services) has risen more modestly. As hard as it might be to get your mind around, a rising price for an item doesn't always translate into rising value. In contrast, however, I can think of no natural instance where a rising value isn't correspondingly reflected in a rising price.

The falling dollar is not *directly* tied to the rising value of Gold, but rather its tie is an *indirect* one -- channeled through its effect on investment motivations that ultimately impact actual market supply and demand for the metal.

Sure, the impact of this indirect link can be HUGE! But let's ignore the dollar just for a minute in order to see what Sinclair overlooks. (Maybe he's considered this elsewhere, but it certainly isn't evident in this article posted by Trojan.)

For this exercise, put the international exchange rate of the dollar out of your mind, and let's just focus on the physical Gold market. Look at China. One billion people. An economic force to be reckoned with. They have earnings in denominated in the domestic currency -- yuan. Do you think they trust the national government and the yuan any more (or less) than you and I trust the paper dollar, peso, lira, whatever?

With the liberalization of the physical Gold market in China, there is EVERY reason to think that the *value* of Gold could be materially boosted worldwide, even in the face of an idle US Dollar Index. Returning to my earlier point, this rising market *value*, due to independent Chinese (or Japanese, etc.) demand upon available physical supply, will inevitably be reflected in worldwide prices, including an idling dollar, as dictated by international exchange rates.

To be sure, being so widely held, a FALLING dollar would certainly add fuel to the fire that motivate our global movement toward the demand side of the physical market equation. Up with the desire, the sought-after VALUE, up with the price. In all currencies!

I do agree with Sinclair in this: sell one third of your Gold mining shares and convert that cash into lasting Gold value which is still priced nice, still yet to be fully and properly recognized in this grandly evolving market.

As a Gold watcher, you gotta like what you're seeing out there on this physical-based aspect of the global currency *dance* (better term than *war*)!

Gold. Participate on the winning side. --- Aristotle

Gandalf the White

(01/20/2003; 16:52:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95022)

HAIL Sir Liberty Head !!!! Someone beat you to that NUMBER !

Liberty Head (01/20/03; 14:19:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 95016)
****$360.5*****
==
Please TRY AGAIN !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/20/2003; 16:56:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95023)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !FIFTH UP-DATE as of 15:55 Monday 01/20/03 Denver Time
===
ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

**** $750.0 **** Caradoc (1/17/03; 10:49:20MT - msg#: 94778

**** $426.2 **** drawmax (1/20/03; 08:09:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 94990)

**** $419.4 **** The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - msg#: 94798

**** $403.5 **** misetich (1/17/03; 18:25:29MT - msg#: 94815

**** $400.0 **** Sundeck (1/17/03; 04:25:05MT - msg#: 94737

**** $396.4 **** Bulldog (1/17/03; 20:05:57MT - msg#: 94825

**** $390.0 **** Galerider (01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - msg#: 94724)

**** $387.5 **** knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - msg#: 94800

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (1/17/03; 05:12:59MT - msg#: 94738

**** $383.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - msg#: 94791

**** $382.5 **** Hipplebeck (1/18/03; 06:47:33MT - msg#: 94850

**** $379.1 **** ha_tey_o (1/17/03; 07:24:56MT - msg#: 94741

**** $378.9 **** erayboy (1/17/03; 03:05:04MT - msg#: 94729
**** $378.8 **** miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - msg#: 94805

**** $378.1 **** a nation of one (01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - msg#: 94720

**** $375.5 **** balzac (1/18/03; 14:15:59MT - msg#: 94880

**** $375.0 **** Mountain Top (1/19/03; 10:56:32MT - msg#: 94937

**** $374.1 **** Slowman (1/17/03; 06:10:05MT - msg#: 94739
**** $374.0 **** Zhisheng (1/17/03; 09:53:34MT - msg#: 94762

**** $373.5 **** kahulik (01/20/03; 11:08:21MT - msg#: 94998

**** $372.2 **** Houston (1/19/03; 10:30:11MT - msg#: 94934

**** $372.0 **** OZ (1/17/03; 02:14:25MT - msg#: 94727

**** $370.5 **** VanRip (1/17/03; 07:59:23MT - msg#: 94747

**** $369.9 **** Ole Man (1/18/03; 23:30:28MT - msg#: 94912

**** $369.2 **** slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - msg#: 94796

**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750

**** $367.4 **** Kagalaska (01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - msg#: 94721

**** $365.2 **** pilgrims_gold (1/18/03; 10:01:47MT - msg#: 94863

**** $365.0 **** monTROZ (01/20/03; 12:50:24MT - msg#: 95005

**** $364.2 **** Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - msg#: 94755

**** $363.0 **** luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - msg#: 94795

**** $362.5 **** EagleOne (1/18/03; 14:02:13MT - msg#: 94877

**** $362.3 **** Renny (1/18/03; 05:15:47MT - msg#: 94848

**** $361.1 **** Lothar of the Hill People (01/20/03; 13:51:40MT - msg#: 95013

**** $360.5 **** Felix the Cat (1/20/03; 03:35:20MT - msg#: 94984

**** $360.0 **** Henri (1/18/03; 15:28:31MT - msg#: 94886

**** $359.1 **** 24carat (1/18/03; 16:10:36MT - msg#: 94889

**** $358.0 **** makcumka (1/20/03; 05:44:13MT - msg#: 94987

**** $348.0 **** Topaz (1/17/03; 03:06:48MT - msg#: 94730

**** $274.6 **** harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - msg#: 94792

===

INVALID ENTRIES
---
ONE --- Previously taken number !
Liberty Head (01/20/03; 14:19:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 95016)
****$360.5*****
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.
---

THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February �03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 -----

The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old) goldpiece !!
Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin was
Minted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce.
(Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)
---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
(Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003:

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 Settle = $358.1 + $7.0 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a LOW = $350.0
1/17/03 Settle = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a LOW = $355.3 and Sir ROCK is "King of the Hill" !!
===

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines"
LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!!
READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
---
LET the CONTEST CONTINUE !!
<;-)

Cavan Man

(01/20/2003; 17:10:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95024)

Aristotle

You're splitting hairs a wee bit. While I have no disagreement with your thought on the matter, can you give credit where it is due? I think Mr. Sinclair is seeing things pretty clearly. Not everyone can fly for the USN while many still earn their wings.

Rock

(01/20/2003; 17:14:23 MDT - Msg ID: 95025)

Re: White Rose

Hi WR, You said, "-- A question to ponder while the US prepares the murder hundreds of thousands [if they get in the way) to steal the oil of a sovereign nation."

Fact: Its up to Saddam to disarm or else face military action. If Saddam packed up and left, guess what? There would be no war. If the regime came clean instead of breaking 18 UN resolutions including a recent breach maybe we could divert a war.

Again, its up to Saddam to disarm or let the allies disarm him. And I did say allies because there are many countries besides the US lined up to help take Iraq out if they refuse to comply with UN resolutions.

The world community knows Saddam is another 911 waiting to happen. Saddam enjoys putting stragitic military weapons near mosque's, hospitals and schools, what kind of person would put his own people in harms way intentionally?

Aristotle

(01/20/2003; 17:25:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95026)

Cavan Man, I don't know what good it'll do, but here goes...

Happy to oblige. Giving credit where credit is due!!

ANOTHER
FOA
MK
...for bringing us the message.

Also:

The euro architects
...for seeing a better way and seeing it through.

Also:

America
...for still being the best damned place to call home, warts and all.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Rock

(01/20/2003; 17:26:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95027)

Terry Keenan Hit It On The Head

Tonight while watching potato head on Your World, Terry Keenan host of Cashin-in said something positive about gold she said, "whats the risk of owning gold, peace in the world?"

Rock

(01/20/2003; 17:32:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95028)

Ari

Thats a big 10-4 on your last transmission.

Cavan Man

(01/20/2003; 17:36:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95029)

@Aristotle (O wise one)

"What he said"

Trojan

(01/20/2003; 17:39:19 MDT - Msg ID: 95030)

Golds Soars :-)

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=3It's a start... $357.02 Better Up then Down

CoBra(too)

(01/20/2003; 17:39:30 MDT - Msg ID: 95031)

@ Ari - Agreed - It's not the US Dollar, only!

Here's what Dan Denning has to say:

"What's different about this gold rally is that it's part of a secular shift out of paper currencies. Investors are
losing confidence in currencies all over the world. In
fact, the only currencies doing relatively well are those
from economies with lots of hard assets or those
considering explicit gold backing."

I agree with that, even if it may be only part of your concept(ion). Same goes for any other finacial paper - including bonds, stocks and even the typical mortgaged piece of RE or home - and of course, the "hedging" pyramid of the overlying derivative structure in all its monstrous forms. The only question left is when, not if, this gigantic accumulation of debt implodes - and takes the IMF, WBk. and hopefully the FED and other CB's with it.

The "brave new world" of currencies, unbacked or rather un-shackled by real values is on its last legs. Mr. Bernankes hi-tech printing machines have been spinning their wheels for too long already, before the man (cum Greenspan) has admitted officially to that scheme, scam or sham.

... It is the beginning of a shift out of financial paper and their unbacked debt created currencies, which will lead to the accumulation of hard assets - in particular Gold, though some added Silver (love Tiffany's) would suit me well. Pretty late for (mean the nightly hour) - cb2

Hipplebeck

(01/20/2003; 17:46:41 MDT - Msg ID: 95032)

Aristotle

You said that using gold as money would somehow devalue or take value away from your property. Could you clarify?
From the time that gold was in the eight hundreds of dollars to the time that gold was two hundred fifty dollars, did the gold you held in your possession lose value?

Trojan

(01/20/2003; 17:56:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95033)

Illusion Of Reserves

http://english.pravda.ru/main/2003/01/18/42236.htmlA fascinating article out of Russia about their Gold Reserves. Recommended reading. Some interesting comments about safety of holding US Dollars.

Get Gold...

Aristotle

(01/20/2003; 18:04:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95034)

Hipplebeck...

How can you ask these questions? Do you have no memory of our conversation last week? Everything I offered you was basically in a direct attempt to answer your first question as clearly as possible.

To address your second question, use common sense and have a look at my post today regarding Sinclair's oversight -- value and price. You'll know the answer straight away.

Off to dine, doing my part to support the local economy.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Trojan

(01/20/2003; 18:18:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95035)

Arrogance 1 Diplomacy 0 "Rumsfield's Darn Good Job"

http://english.pravda.ru/main/2003/01/20/42298.htmlSince I was reading articles at Pravada I was curious to see how they were seeing the Iraq situation.

What I find so interesting about the article is the confirmation that more and more Nations appear to be tiring of the Bush Administration.

Just as Companies like Mcdonald's and Coke are being boycotted, you can see how more and more people are just looking for a place to put their assets other than the US Dollar.

With instant news and analysis available it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out holding US Dollars now is getting riskier each day. The Euro and Gold benefits.

But I'm looking forward to a Great Prognosis for America on January 28TH. Our Economy is Resilent and Growing. Our Nation is catching all them Evil People.

Osama Bin Who ? And Omar Who ?

And I just read that Saddam said in an Interview that he sleeps like a baby at night.

Saddam, keep getting your sleep. You will need it soon. Can You Say BUNKER BUSTERS...

Cavan Man

(01/20/2003; 18:20:14 MDT - Msg ID: 95036)

China Physical Gold Market

So many miss this cue. "This is the single most important development in the gold market since 1971."

Quote me...CM

Flaccus

(01/20/2003; 18:44:18 MDT - Msg ID: 95037)

Trojan/Pravda

I'm sorry but I have a difficult time even now accepting Pravda as a credible source. Tread carefully, my friend. He who walks on eggs ever runs the possibility of being slimed.

Trojan

(01/20/2003; 18:59:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95038)

@ Flaccus Re: Pravda as Source

Your point might be valid Re: Pravda as source except they were quoting Fox News. Regardless of the source issue my point is that other countries see the following comments such as these in their Media.

Donald Rumsfeld explained why the US intelligence services are not telling the UNMOVIC team where the weaponry is hidden: "We can't say where things are otherwise the next day they wouldn't be there" and admitted what Washington's real policy is: "We're trying to connect the dots before the fact. I think we've done a darn good job".

Do you really think that Pravda or any other Biased source needs to twist the facts when Rumsfeld can say something as INANE as the above.

Sure the UN Inspectors are made up of Spies for Iraq.
Give it a break, Donald. How Stupid do you think the World is ?

Anyways, the last point about Pravda. Nothing they are saying is not being said and acknowledged around the World.

Senator Byrd just said the same thing the other day.
America is losing friends and Allies and is quickly being seen as the World's Bully. He said that as a respected US Senator.

sector

(01/20/2003; 19:28:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95039)

@ CavenMan There are Many "Most Important" Events...

...in Recent Gold Developments Not the least of which is the heavy, new physical gold demand from the Middle and Far East.

Ranking at the top however, is the revelation that central banks have sold half their gold 16,000 tonnes in order to cap it's price and elevate [Temporarily] their dying currencies. Coupled with the hard proofs of COMEX gold manipulation at http://www.goldensextant .com one comes away with a broad understanding of the present and coming gold market events. Gold has been held down ONLY by cb selling which continues today in a kind of inverted glide path upwards.

This view was developed by GATA and even now is held by only a few.

It is the key to explaining what has happened.

IF one allows himself to accept the facts that the cbs have lost half their gold, then one can see that they are desperate to get [Glide up] to a point where they can stop selling gold. This is why there won't be any appreciable fall-backs in pog. It is also why there won't be a drop if an Iraq war starts.

The G-10 want the price of gold to rise to a level where free market dynamics trigger honest non-central bank dishoarding. Allow yourself to believe that because it is true.

The devaluation, anti-deflation machine is a juggernaut.

Liberty Head

(01/20/2003; 19:45:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95040)

***$360.8****

My second choice.

Thank You

Gandalf the White

(01/20/2003; 19:54:01 MDT - Msg ID: 95041)

Sir Liberty Head !!

Liberty Head (01/20/03; 19:45:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 95040)
***$360.8****
===
THANK YOU !
<;-)

mikal

(01/20/2003; 20:00:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95042)

Viva Venezuela

http://www.yt.org/article.php?sid=1003 "Who's to blame in Venezuela?"
Printed on Saturday, January 18, 2003 @ 18:53:02 EST
Excerpts: Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
"The current crisis gripping Venezuela is essentially one of socio-economic dimensions. It is social because of the class nature of many of the "ideological" lines that have been drawn between the various "camps"; this is true both in a rhetorical/propagandistic sense and in a more demonstrable sense -- one that examines the different outcomes for the status of the Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), Venezuela's state-run oil company, following the resolution of the crisis. It is economic in that almost all of the controversy surrounds the economic themes of nationalization, privatization, free-markets, and globalization.
Of course, even to divide the two descriptions -- economic and social -- is sometimes hard to do as they are largely interwoven. Such is the case in the Venezuela of January, 2003.
On the one side there is the government of President Hugo Chavez Frias, former paratrooper and coup conspirer himself. He's supported by a handful of remaining bureaucrats and most of the military, as well as about 30 percent of the general populace.....
Conclusion
As the economic situation continues to deteriorate and tensions build, both sides face the accusation of ruining Venezuela by absolutely resisting the demands of the other, yet the battle has grown so bitter neither side can now dream of capitulation.
Chavez argues that the weight of his country's woes are on the opposition's shoulders because they are the ones who have instigated the lockouts and shut down the oil industry bringing the economy to its knees. He says they'll just have to wait until the time set forth by the constitution for a referendum vote on his presidency. In this respect, Chavez has the advantage of showing an outward display of respect for the rule of law, a sign that surprisingly has gained him little praise in the democracies of the world.
The opposition blames Chavez for the current ills by not giving into their demands. For them, a few months are too long to wait for the referendum -- they want it now.
In the end, both sides may lose, causing a considerably destabilized Venezuela -- an outcome the U.S. and Europe are eager to avoid -- one where social and racial lines are distinctly drawn as an increasingly polarized society is unable to peacefully solve its problems. Such an environment will become extremely vulnerable to authoritarian rule."
Matthew Riemer drafted this report; Erich Marquardt contributed.
Original Source: http://www.pinr.com.

DOWNUNDER

(01/20/2003; 20:28:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95043)

FROM LE METROPOLE CAFE - - - RE WAR & THE BUSHES

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,482-543296,00.htmlPosted for the ROCKS of this world to ponder - -
Not that I'd expect any comprehension of the facts outlined-
-----------------------------------------------------------

January 15, 2003
Times Online, UK
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,482-543296,00.html
THE UNITED STATES OFAMERICA HAS GONE MAD
John le Carr�

America has entered one of its periods of historical madness, but this is the worst I can remember: worse than McCarthyism, worse than the Bay of Pigs and in the long term potentially more disastrous than the Vietnam War.

The reaction to 9/11 is beyond anything Osama bin Laden could have hoped for in his nastiest dreams. As in McCarthy times, the freedoms that have made America the envy of the world are being systematically eroded. The combination of compliant US media and vested corporate interests is once more ensuring that a debate that should be ringing out in every town square is confined to the loftier columns of the East Coast press.

The imminent war was planned years before bin Laden struck, but it was he who made it possible. Without bin Laden, the Bush junta would still be trying to explain such tricky matters as how it came to be elected in the first place; Enron; its shameless favouring of the already-too-rich; its reckless disregard for the world's poor, the ecology and a raft of unilaterally abrogated international treaties. They might also have to be telling us why they support Israel in its continuing disregard for UN resolutions.

But bin Laden conveniently swept all that under the carpet. The Bushies are riding high. Now 88 per cent of Americans want the war, we are told. The US defence budget has been raised by another $60 billion to around $360 billion. A splendid new generation of nuclear weapons is in the pipeline, so we can all breathe easy. Quite what war 88 per cent of Americans think they are supporting is a lot less clear. A war for how long, please? At what cost in American lives? At what cost to the American taxpayer's pocket? At what cost � because most of those 88 per cent are thoroughly decent and humane people � in Iraqi lives?

How Bush and his junta succeeded in deflecting America's anger from bin Laden to Saddam Hussein is one of the great public relations conjuring tricks of history. But they swung it. A recent poll tells us that one in two Americans now believe Saddam was responsible for the attack on the World Trade Centre. But the American public is not merely being misled. It is being browbeaten and kept in a state of ignorance and fear. The carefully orchestrated neurosis should carry Bush and his fellow conspirators nicely into the next election.

Those who are not with Mr Bush are against him. Worse, they are with the enemy. Which is odd, because I'm dead against Bush, but I would love to see Saddam's downfall � just not on Bush's terms and not by his methods. And not under the banner of such outrageous hypocrisy.

The religious cant that will send American troops into battle is perhaps the most sickening aspect of this surreal war-to-be. Bush has an arm-lock on God. And God has very particular political opinions. God appointed America to save the world in any way that suits America. God appointed Israel to be the nexus of America's Middle Eastern policy, and anyone who wants to mess with that idea is a) anti-Semitic, b) anti-American, c) with the enemy, and d) a terrorist.

God also has pretty scary connections. In America, where all men are equal in His sight, if not in one another's, the Bush family numbers one President, one ex-President, one ex-head of the CIA, the Governor of Florida and the ex-Governor of Texas.

Care for a few pointers? George W. Bush, 1978-84: senior executive, Arbusto Energy/Bush Exploration, an oil company; 1986-90: senior executive of the Harken oil company. Dick Cheney, 1995-2000: chief executive of the Halliburton oil company. Condoleezza Rice, 1991-2000: senior executive with the Chevron oil company, which named an oil tanker after her. And so on. But none of these trifling associations affects the integrity of God's work.

In 1993, while ex-President George Bush was visiting the ever-democratic Kingdom of Kuwait to receive thanks for liberating them, somebody tried to kill him. The CIA believes that "somebody" was Saddam. Hence Bush Jr's cry: "That man tried to kill my Daddy." But it's still not personal, this war. It's still necessary. It's still God's work. It's still about bringing freedom and democracy to oppressed Iraqi people.

To be a member of the team you must also believe in Absolute Good and Absolute Evil, and Bush, with a lot of help from his friends, family and God, is there to tell us which is which. What Bush won't tell us is the truth about why we're going to war. What is at stake is not an Axis of Evil � but oil, money and people's lives. Saddam's misfortune is to sit on the second biggest oilfield in the world. Bush wants it, and who helps him get it will receive a piece of the cake. And who doesn't, won't.

If Saddam didn't have the oil, he could torture his citizens to his heart's content. Other leaders do it every day � think Saudi Arabia, think Pakistan, think Turkey, think Syria, think Egypt.

Baghdad represents no clear and present danger to its neighbours, and none to the US or Britain. Saddam's weapons of mass destruction, if he's still got them, will be peanuts by comparison with the stuff Israel or America could hurl at him at five minutes� notice. What is at stake is not an imminent military or terrorist threat, but the economic imperative of US growth. What is at stake is America's need to demonstrate its military power to all of us � to Europe and Russia and China, and poor mad little North Korea, as well as the Middle East; to show who rules America at home, and who is to be ruled by America abroad.

The most charitable interpretation of Tony Blair's part in all this is that he believed that, by riding the tiger, he could steer it. He can't. Instead, he gave it a phoney legitimacy, and a smooth voice. Now I fear, the same tiger has him penned into a corner, and he can't get out.

It is utterly laughable that, at a time when Blair has talked himself against the ropes, neither of Britain's opposition leaders can lay a glove on him. But that's Britain's tragedy, as it is America's: as our Governments spin, lie and lose their credibility, the electorate simply shrugs and looks the other way. Blair's best chance of personal survival must be that, at the eleventh hour, world protest and an improbably emboldened UN will force Bush to put his gun back in his holster unfired. But what happens when the world's greatest cowboy rides back into town without a tyrant's head to wave at the boys?

Blair's worst chance is that, with or without the UN, he will drag us into a war that, if the will to negotiate energetically had ever been there, could have been avoided; a war that has been no more democratically debated in Britain than it has in America or at the UN. By doing so, Blair will have set back our relations with Europe and the Middle East for decades to come. He will have helped to provoke unforeseeable retaliation, great domestic unrest, and regional chaos in the Middle East. Welcome to the party of the ethical foreign policy.

There is a middle way, but it's a tough one: Bush dives in without UN approval and Blair stays on the bank. Goodbye to the special relationship.

I cringe when I hear my Prime Minister lend his head prefect's sophistries to this colonialist adventure. His very real anxieties about terror are shared by all sane men. What he can't explain is how he reconciles a global assault on al-Qaeda with a territorial assault on Iraq. We are in this war, if it takes place, to secure the fig leaf of our special relationship, to grab our share of the oil pot, and because, after all the public hand-holding in Washington and Camp David, Blair has to show up at the altar.

"But will we win, Daddy?"

"Of course, child. It will all be over while you're still in bed."
"Why?"
"Because otherwise Mr Bush's voters will get terribly impatient and may decide not to vote for him."

"But will people be killed, Daddy?"

"Nobody you know, darling. Just foreign people."

"Can I watch it on television?"

"Only if Mr Bush says you can."

"And afterwards, will everything be normal again? Nobody will do anything horrid any more?"

"Hush child, and go to sleep."

Last Friday a friend of mine in California drove to his local supermarket with a sticker on his car saying: "Peace is also Patriotic". It was gone by the time he'd finished shopping.

The author has also contributed to an openDemocracy debate on Iraq at www.openDemocracy.net

balzac

(01/20/2003; 20:46:47 MDT - Msg ID: 95044)

DEFLATION OR INFLATION

How many votes can I get for Mr. James Sinclar for

Chairman of the US Federal Reserve.

Balzac

slingshot

(01/20/2003; 21:01:01 MDT - Msg ID: 95045)

Balzac

None. Abolish the FED. Slingshot--------------<>

Black Blade

(01/20/2003; 21:14:59 MDT - Msg ID: 95046)

Crude Oil Rises as U.K. Orders 26,000 Troops to Persian Gulf

Belgian

(01/20/2003; 21:18:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95047)

Mitsui metal forecast for 2003 >>> Mineweb-Tim Wood

Andy Smith....a Gold authorithy ?A.Smith : " The real shock is the trend-line in LBMA gold clearing volumes, wich terminates at zero sometime in 2007 "

For those who are intriged by this shocking two lines, from Mister Smith...I refer to Randy @ The Tower/Another msgs. #51094 and #51093 ! Bright light will shine !

GratefulForGold

(01/20/2003; 21:19:44 MDT - Msg ID: 95048)

White Rose

Perhaps off subject, but I didn't realize until today --are you European?

If you don't mind my asking, did you take your name from the youth White Rose resistance in WWII Germany? If so, I honor and salute your choice of handles.

mikal

(01/20/2003; 21:20:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95049)

Definative Derivative Disadvantages

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorial_03/hommel010322.htmlThe Moral Failures of the Paper Longs -Jason Hommel
Excerpts: ".....True, the manipulation affects the entire world. It hurts miners all over the world. It continues to hurt long term holders of the actual physical metal, while at the same time, helping buyers of physical metal by providing the metal at artificially low prices. It hurts those who have invested in gold for a lifetime and now wish to sell for their retirement, but it helps those who are younger and still working, and who are able to continue to buy gold and silver at today's liquidation-sale prices.
But market manipulation is temporary, and when it ends and the price is restored to a true market value, some will be hurt, and others will benefit.
.....But buying a futures contract is not trading, nor is it investing. It is gambling. In a trade, you exchange; you give one thing to someone else, and you receive something else back in exchange from the other person. This is usually a win-win situation, as each person involved in the exchange receives a personal benefit.
Gambling, on the other hand, involves people pooling their money together, and then one person takes home the winnings. In essence, one person takes from the other, and the other is left worse off than before, not benefiting from the deal. This is unlike trade, which is mutually beneficial to both participants. This is the moral failure of gambling: the attempt to profit at another's loss or expense.
I'm not using the word "gambling" to denote activities that contain an element of risk. Life contains risk, and it is not a moral failure to attempt to live. Gambling is morally wrong because it will necessarily cause misery and loss to at least one of the participants.
Gambling is fundamentally different from producing something, or investing in something. It does not logically and necessarily follow that if you trade (or invest) dollars for gold that the person receiving the dollars will lose. .....I simply do not believe that in the event the gold price starts running away up and over $1000/oz., that the short sellers will deliver actual metal. They simply cannot do so, as they don't have the metal, and to purchase so much in the open market to cover would be impossible. I believe they will default with a cash settlement, just as the TOCOM shorts defaulted on Platinum or Palladium obligations back in 2000 or so. So, at best, there will be a cash settlement, and at worst, the shorts will go bankrupt, and there will be a much reduced cash settlement, or much delayed cash settlement, or no cash settlement at all.
True, there will be wins along the way for a few longs, before the eventual massive default happens, just as there are wins in any casino. But the majority of all gamblers lose, just as the majority of the paper longs are playing a self-defeating rigged game of gambling.
.....The third major reason that miners should publicly renounce and rebuke the futures markets is that the futures markets are the primary method being used to harm the price of the products they produce. The sooner the fraud of the futures markets is exposed, the sooner the price manipulation will end, and the sooner the miners will be able to reap the rewards of their labors.
The moral failure of the paper longs can be summarized as follows.

They are deceived into thinking that the shorts can deliver. They are deceived into thinking that the endless creation of futures contracts doesn't affect the price, but it does, it even harms the value of their own paper positions.
The paper longs are gambling, and hoping to make money off of another's loss. They are deceived into thinking that buying a futures contract is a legitimate investment opportunity, when it is actually less honest and less reliable than many forms of gambling.
The paper longs assume the risk of debt, and worse, they may lose all of their money, and have to put up additional monies in the event of a margin call. They are deceived into thinking that they "control" metal, when, in fact, they do not control (own) anything. They own a promise, not a thing.
The paper longs are motivated by greed, thinking that through taking on debt, and owning a vain paper promise, that they will profit more than those people who choose to own actual physical metal. They forget and ignore the fundamental inherent quality of owning precious metal is that it represents payment in full, and gold does not default on it's owner, it is the only thing that truly protects one from default by another. Gold is the antidote to paper promises. A paper promise is no substitute for gold.
The paper longs think they are participating in a bank run, but they are not. They are the ones on the sidelines, or at the end of the line, hoping that a default will occur before they reach the window!
It is no wonder that Warren Buffet called derivatives "sewage". They are garbage. Options on futures are even worse, garbage on top of garbage, or perhaps the slime that lies beneath the garbage pile.
I believe it is inevitable that the shorts in the futures markets for gold and silver will default. And I believe that when they do, the price of precious metals will skyrocket.
I strongly recommend that people take advantage of what they know about the extent of the fraud and deception that exists in the world, and that they protect themselves from that fraud and deception through precious metals ownership."

Black Blade

(01/20/2003; 21:32:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95050)

Dollar May Fall as U.S. Rejects Iraqi Pledges on UN Cooperation

Black Blade

(01/20/2003; 21:42:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95051)

General Electric earnings hit by $1.4bn charge

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=1106&ncid=749&e=8&u=/ft/20030120/bs_ft/1042490890348
Snippit:

General Electric's fourth-quarter earnings fell 21 per cent, after it took a $1.4bn charge for the poor performance of its Employers Reinsurance subsidiary. The decline in profits and the one-off charge were in line with the industrial and financial company's profit warning in November.

Black Blade: I guess as long as its "in line " with expectations it's all right. As GE is parent of CNBC I wonder if it will get any spin or even be addressed tomorrow by the sales team. I am not certain, but I think that their pension fund is under funded as well. Hmmm�

Black Blade

(01/20/2003; 21:52:23 MDT - Msg ID: 95052)

Company Forecasts Likely to Be Gloomy

http://www.foxnews.com/printer_friendly_story/0,3566,75916,00.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK � Investors are bracing for a tidal wave of profit forecasts from U.S. companies this week, and there is a growing belief the flood will bring more bad news. As fourth-quarter results roll in, investment professionals will mostly skip over last year's earnings tallies and go straight for forecasts. After disappointing projections from companies, including software maker Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Wall Street isn't anticipating much good news. "People have a pretty good sense of what happened in 2002, so they're looking to see how 2003 and even 2004 will shape up," said Peter Gottlieb, portfolio manager for First Albany Asset Management. "The big fear on Wall Street is that the mild, tenuous recovery we've had is going to dissipate. I think guidance will be muted." Money managers recommend caution even if company forecasts are hopeful. That's because companies often start the year full of optimism, then lower those predictions as the year drags on, said John Keegan, who helps manage $2 billion for Standard Federal Wealth Management. "Anything that a company is telling you now, you've got to take with a grain of salt," said Keegan. "I'd be leery of any company coming out with a glowing forecast for the rest of the year because, from an economic perspective, we're not hitting on as many cylinders as people think."

Black Blade: I fully expect to see another down year for US equities. This will be the fourth consecutive year of declining equities indices � something not seen since 1929-1932. This is a secular bear market so I don't expect much if any improvement. In the meantime get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months� expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

Waverider

(01/20/2003; 22:25:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95053)

Rock

Having read your posts over the past few days, I thought I'd recommend a book which I think you may enjoy. It's called The Philosophy of Science: Science and Objectivity by George Couvalis. It's quite heavy reading but provides an interesting and in-depth analysis and debate regarding the essence of knowledge and truth based on observation, probability, and scientific validation versus relativism - I think that some of the issues you raised yesterday really concerned the question of what constitutes knowledge and what constitutes truth - this book addresses these issues. However, it IS heavy reading, so please be forewarned. Cheers,
Waverider

harryo

(01/20/2003; 22:34:41 MDT - Msg ID: 95054)

gold contest

correction*******374.6******** My first submission was inadvertently submitted as 274.6

balzac

(01/20/2003; 22:42:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95055)

RE DERIV. DISADVS.

MIKAL-RE YOUR 95049 POSTTo put it succintly, the major difference for a futures market hedge
between say wheat and gold is that in a perishable commodity, a producer has a time line on the life of his product- in the case of gold the timespan is eternal and each unit produced adds to the cumulative quantity balanced against a growing world population.

So hedging wheat is not gambling but hedging gold is really
sacrifing a miners labour.

Balzac

Belgian

(01/20/2003; 22:51:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95056)

Ari on Sinclair

Indeed fellow Knight...Sinclair only sees the dollar at its *narrowest*. Quite understandable from his (personal) point(s) of view as Mister Gold (miner-speculator).
There is a huge difference between the dollar looking at Gold and Gold looking at the dollar.This becomes perfectly clear if one thousand barrils of oil should demand one ounce of Gold in exchange (cfr Mr. Allen - msgs # 255190/246224/ > 1997)!

It is not the dollar-currency as such, but rather what it *represents*, that is the clue. And that's much more than the dollar can carry. More and more "responsibility" is loaded on this dollar and its owners/traders. Political, financial and economic responsibilities, stretching out, all over the whole world now. Toooooo much !

*Gold* will soon present itself, to take over, the bulk of this unbearable burden weighing on the dollar's shoulders.
Westerners will be the last ones to realize that this process is being in progress. Thanks to the gold-authorities, narrow sight. A globalizing world cannot prosper on uni-lateralism. The ongoing geo-political events will soon make this more clear.

Thanks, Ari.

balzac

(01/20/2003; 23:00:01 MDT - Msg ID: 95057)

BUSH�S WAR

FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLEShrub aint attackin hes defendin merca , aint he.

Galerider

(01/20/2003; 23:15:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95058)

PLATINUM

631.00? What is going on with this market? Are my fellow countrymen (Japan) holding some short positions again? Are there some cousins of Spot and Spike that I don't know about?

Trojan

(01/20/2003; 23:16:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95059)

"The American Imperial Dollar"

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0301/S00077.htm"Gold Is Money. Anything Else Is Merely Credit"

A very interesting Commentary !

Gandalf the White

(01/21/2003; 00:18:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95061)

HAIL Sir Harryo !!! No Problemo ! <;-)

harryo (01/20/03; 22:34:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 95054)
gold contest
correction
*******374.6******** My first submission was inadvertently submitted as 274.6
===
AND that is why I ask you to CONFIRM your prior Prognostication as the number did not fit your WORDS !
I too have been known to think one thing and my ol'e fingers do ANOTHER !
<;-)

Trojan

(01/21/2003; 00:35:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95062)

How Bin Laden Escaped and What Will He Do ?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19238-2003Jan20.htmlAfter the last confirmation by the US Government that the voice on the Bin Laden tape received in 2002 was his. It seemed Bin Laden was alive. However shortly after that a Swiss Company I think said the voice on the tape was NOT Bin Laden.

So was he dead or alive ?

Now comes this Washington Post story that says he escaped and how he did it.

With War now seeming almost inevitable I wonder what Bin Laden and his followers might do. As I said in an earlier post on the War subject, the end game is near

I see gold is off a bit in Asian markets. There should be much uncertainty in the next week. Don't be fooled by temporary weakness.

Mr Gresham

(01/21/2003; 00:52:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95063)

Well-put post

from neighboring castle, stating thoughtfully the dilemmas many find themselves in, once learning (as in places such as this) has accelerated. By SilverLustreDos, at 02:32 1/21:

"The US does not breed alertness. Like most governments, it abhors alertness. Amongst others, a major "great experiment" of the US has been in the mechanics of settling a once vigorous populace (vigor was needed to settle (steal) a huge land of rich resources) into complacency. Complacency through mass media brainwashing, educational brainwashing, or better yet, the complacency through mass mediocrity. Dazzle and dumb them by "things." Cheap goods and cheap food (in price and especially quality). Gluttony and Emptiness. Gradually get them acclimated to such a reduced quality of life, addicted to false values, loyal only to what they think is in their best interest in the narrowest of definitions, and we have the American "public."

"What makes this especially frightening to me, as am American who has been "dumbed" much of my life, is that anyone I encounter and manage to engage in some semblance of deeper conversation seems to think that this complacency, greed and gluttony is OUR RIGHTFUL HERITAGE. As if, the US citizen has the right to consume an exorbitant amount of the world's resources (on credit) just because we're us. We're unique and special. We love freedom and the world is jealous. And our media/government encourages that idiotic assumption.

"Who's at fault � the government or the people who elect them? I am, perhaps, reaching my own acceptance of "we get the government we deserve" in that I am beginning to lay the responsibility squarely at the feet of the populace and not the devil government.

"I am not an activist and would more likely attempt to leave rather than fight. To me, the odds are so overwhelmingly against turning the tide of the destiny that will befall the US that I may have to choose whether to attempt to live my remaining years in some environment/situation that will hopefully build and encourage true human values (elsewhere) or go down fighting (here in the US) a perhaps heroic yet futile battle. Life is short and if I had any deep sense of the "system" (and the general public) of the US being redeemable without it (the country/government) inflicting great harm upon the world in its attempts to retain its overblown status, perhaps I'd feel more "patriotic." I do believe, in a more distant future, that there is the possibility of the US citizens (those that survive) returning to true values and quality of life. I just don't trust or look forward to the experience of getting from Point A to Point Z. There will be enormous pain. Some or much of that pain self-inflicted out of self-imposed ignorance.

"Alas, why are there no easy solutions? Was it a Laurel and Hardy line about "a fine mess you've gotten us into...."?

"Excuse the rant, por favor. Guess I'm feeling a trifle negative about it all. I DO value and appreciate finding PMs. The study of GOLD and SILVER has, for better or worse, led me to being more alert. For that (and many other things), I am grateful. "

Mr Gresham

(01/21/2003; 01:07:59 MDT - Msg ID: 95064)

Russell

http://www.safehaven.com/Editorials/russell/011903.htmDon't these people just get better and better? ;)

The CoinGuy

(01/21/2003; 01:19:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95065)

Aristotle...

I've held complete restraint Michael, for Belgians sake because his opinions are ON CUE, but as far as Ari's nakedness to the position at hand. I look upon his 5 cards as a fool waiting for the taking. If my position is not at hand, Michael(who knows my number) can call me at his convenience.

I enjoy how you play ownership over this sector, as though, your opinion matters over J. Sinclair(who actually can command this sector, but yet played off like a naive fool, ARI, the guys worth billions, as well as my friend WB). I have history in this sector that runs the gambit, from player, to owner, and you play your opinion as though you matter from an ant to a hill. You are nothing here, until I see your billion's arise out of the ashes, I will assume your opinions as something like noise(unless you're hear to actually help these people). At least Mike B. states his opinion from the heart. Whether he is knowledgable on the subject at hand, or assuming knowledge. He wishes for the least of us to advance to that place where we can all prosper. His heart is right, where the hell is your heart? Mike's in his his chest, not his wallet.

I am hear, waiting your noise from your famous post..if you want to make that BS come true, I'll eat you alive. I love these guys who make themselves out to be players. All talk, and no weight. My weight will be there for you to see. Nothing but BS to impress your friends?. I'm friends of JS, and as you know, we DO NOT pull our position, and I take delivery. Ari, the problem is we own this market with physical at will if need be(BUT not taken for free), it's for newbs to figure where the plucking has been for free?

The truth is you own nothing but your own ignorance. I'm on hiatus for an hour or so, if you have any response we can discusss it.

Take advantage of your contracts...LOL

GOOD LUCK,

About time where FOA returns...

The CoinGuy

ElGordo

(01/21/2003; 01:21:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95066)

Crude now over $34 barrel

Doha, Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil prices may rise as high as $100 a barrel if Iraq sets fire to its oilfields in the event of a U.S.-led attack, Agence France-Presse reported, citing the former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani.

Iraqi president Saddam Hussein might destroy oil wells, reducing the country's crude stockpile, the news agency cited Yamani as saying.

The bombing of Iraq's oil resources may cause crude oil prices to rise to between $80 and $100 a barrel, Yamani was quoted as saying.

Crude oil for March delivery rose as much as 45 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $33.41 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 2:44 p.m. Singapore time.

Crude oil futures in New York have risen 82 percent in the last 12 months because of a prolonged strike in Venezuela and on concern supply from the Middle East may be disrupted by a possible U.S. attack on Iraq.

The CoinGuy

(01/21/2003; 01:30:04 MDT - Msg ID: 95067)

Like I said, I am waiting.....

My time is actually precious, like those who have children( i do not) can understand. I would appreciate a response, so we can discuss.

Thanks,

The CoinGuy

ElGordo

(01/21/2003; 01:37:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95068)

American shot dead in Kuwait

KUWAIT (Reuters) - A Defense Department employee was shot dead and another was wounded in an attack on Tuesday in Kuwait near a U.S. base where Washington is preparing for a possible war on Iraq, a U.S. embassy source said.

CNN television, reporting from the scene in northern Kuwait, said it saw the bullet-riddled body of the dead man in a vehicle it described as a Land Cruiser.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

The U.S. embassy said one American was killed and the other critically wounded in the attack near U.S. Camp Doha base, north of Kuwait City.

An embassy source said the two men were civilian employees of the U.S. Department of Defense (news - web sites). The source said the attack occurred at 9:14 a.m. (1:14 a.m. EST).

The injured American was taken to the military hospital in Kuwait with multiple gunshot wounds.

More than 15,000 U.S. soldiers are in Kuwait ahead of a possible war with Iraq.

CNN said police were blocking off streets in the area but no arrests had yet been made.

Last November, a Kuwaiti policeman shot and seriously wounded two U.S. soldiers on a highway south of Kuwait City and the previous month two Kuwaitis attacked U.S. Marines training on an island, killing one.

Kuwait sealed off large portions of the country to ensure the security of the military exercises in November.

Kuwait is likely to be a launchpad for a U.S. invasion of Iraq if Baghdad does not satisfy Washington's demand that it prove itself free of weapons of mass destruction.

Iraq insists it has no chemical, biological or nuclear arms.

The CoinGuy

(01/21/2003; 01:47:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95069)

Belgian...

Do you make the habit of telling the story in one sentence? I wish you the best of luck my friend, but don't jump to these conclusions.

TCG

The CoinGuy

(01/21/2003; 02:04:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95070)

After catching up on some posts....

I've been on the road for some time. I've read the last two weeks post simultaneously. A nation of one, has posted on the market as of late. I would be careful with this advice. As a professional, I will state 9000 on the DOW will not be seen. At any rate, if I was to push my opinion, I would look for an advance on Tuesday, or early Wednesday to your QQQ of 26, and this will mark the last push of the market 'til March. Of course counter-trend rallies are to be expected, but the market will be heading down from here. Take precautions as necessary, and look for Black Blade to be giving the best long term advice.

TCG

Topaz

(01/21/2003; 02:26:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95071)

Trojan re: Sinclair.

He's right in saying the Gold link exaserbated the 30's Depression, but giving the Greenspan/Berneke (sp) deflation attack strategy as an antedote is missing the point methinks.
Sure all those M's are sloshing around however there's also a very narrow bottleneck through which they're filtering down to "the Masses". It's the Masses who drive inflation not the M's, so we see "essentials" inflating and "discretionaries" deflating. Demand for those non-essentials will have to improve markedly to turn this around.
For the time being the Wealth effect created by the Housing Boom is sufficient to temper the negative effects of the SM rout...when this subsides Mr Consumer will slow down markedly.
They both miss the point with Gold (Elliot/Sinclair). Gold (paper) is at present a Currency. If Sinclairs view was to prevail, Gold will remain so. The Elliot's Gold is a commodity...I don't think we'll go there again! In all probability, the emergence of Physical Gold Wealth as a political expedient will render these theories, along with the paper equivalents thereof, worthless.

Topaz

(01/21/2003; 03:29:05 MDT - Msg ID: 95072)

The CoinGuy (1/21/03; 01:19:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 95065)

Here-Here.........Not to be construed as applause -
Spelling correction!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/21/2003; 04:59:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95073)

The tale of currency: Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

Marie Ballard Ext 106

We look forward to your inquiry.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/21/2003; 05:08:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95074)

International clients! Take note of our NEW toll free Int'l phone numbers

http://www.usagold.com/phone.html
Implemented to help us serve you better.

Give them a spin, let us help you with your next gold order.

We are pleased to pass along what our European clientele have been telling us -- that our pricing is superior to most of their banks and brokerage firms. Further, we support and encourage delivery of the gold while our competitors primarily promote certificate programs. With USAGOLD - Centennial you'll get a good price AND GET what you pay for!

From New Zealand to the Netherlands, from Australia to Austria, from the British Isles to the Great White North, we offer the service you want and the professionalism you need.

Hipplebeck

(01/21/2003; 05:37:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95075)

Aristotle

I still don't get how you think that if I trade in gold with my neighbors I am taking property away from you.
I don't like being inferred as a thief, so you need to clarify a little better.

MAHENDRA

(01/21/2003; 05:44:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95076)

No need of Panic

Dear friends,
All major metals will moves in confusing trends (both way, up and down) so, no need of panic. Best way not buy or sell those who don't trade on daily basis. Stay away for 3 days because it is indicating that all metals will enter into no zone cycle (no gravity) for three days. Don't forget that in the long term my prediction favors all metals during 2003. In next 67 Days gold will touch $412, Platinum $721, Rhodium, Palladium and silver more then 50%.

Still I recommend investment in NASDAQ.

Note: Please don't ask me questions weekly and short term predictions on market and commodities becacuse they are all available in my book. Don't look every thing for free. Pay some price. Part of book sell will go for HIV/AIDS.

I might increase price of my book from next week.

Thanks & God Bless everybody

Mahendra Sharma
mahendraprophecy

Belgian

(01/21/2003; 06:09:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95077)

@ The CoinGuy

The day, I can make final "conclusions"...there will be no need to post or read anymore ! That day will, very fortunately, never come.
I do my utmost best, to be as brief and clear as possible, as to not bore/disturb, the members on this table with the repetition of complex theories. The more that in the past 5 years A LOT HAS ALREADY BEEN SAID and archived, here at CPM-island !

Yes Sir CoinGuy, I am regulary insinuating, that many "authorities", " STUBBORNLY ", refuse to take some specific, *very fundamental*, thoughts and insights into their equation. Worse...I even suspect that this is done deliberately !?
Then I go in search for possible reasons, "why", this could be the case. Indeed, as an ambitious, aspirant, Poirrot-detective. What's wrong with this attitude, when it is openly and respectfully, communicated ?

An example (biggy) : Are all CBs "that" stupid as to have shipped 1/2 (15.000 tonnes) of their total Gold-exchange-reserves, in *Physical* form right to the jewelry industry ?

Is, "this", the one and only answer for the euro-CB's Gold-sales ?
I have been elaborating (humbly) on this "mantra", many times, in the past 2 years, with only "one" satisfactory, intelligent and very plausable explanation from A/FOA ! Not so from the high-profile authorities in voque. No, none of us can possibly come to any final conclusion on this, as long as we haven't made the inventory of the ***physical*** Gold-reserves of all CBs, concerned !

Allow me to ask you one little question : Have all these Gold-authorities, men/women of very good Gold-will, read (studied) the works of A/FOA ??? And if they did so...is there really nothing in all these ideas that's worth considering ?

And as a finalizer...an increasing amount of Gold-participants, authoritive and other, seem slowly but surely, realizing that it is "PHYSICAL GOLD IN POSSESSION" that is the clue. A wonderful evolution. Thanks God ! But who advocated this, already many years ago ? Yep, A/FOA !
Even Mr. Hommel (GE) admits that he learned (almost) everything from A/FOA (see his recent essay on gambling). Nothing to be ashamed off...on the contrary ! I am in that same boat. But give to Ceasar, what belongs to Ceasar (A/FOA). Let us try to be honorable men...real Gold-Advocates . Gentlemen with a common cause but difference in opinions. Gold Philes are not served with any form, derivative, of sensationalism (emo-stuff).

Friendly greetings, CoinGuy. Hoping that this posting is not mis-interpreted.

Hipplebeck

(01/21/2003; 06:22:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95078)

sad state of affairs

http://www.irna.com/en/head/030120163127.ehe.shtmlWhy does the US support this?

Zelts

(01/21/2003; 06:49:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95079)

****368.25****

I think war is inevitable and when the Americans make their move it will be the go-ahead for all the terrorist sleepers out there. This will make the anthrax scare seem very insignificant indeed.

Zelts

(01/21/2003; 07:34:30 MDT - Msg ID: 95080)

****368.2****

sorry -here is correct format

Albatros

(01/21/2003; 07:48:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95081)

****362.0****

I'm with Sir Zelts but I think the contest question is a little distasteful under the circumstances.

Rock

(01/21/2003; 07:52:56 MDT - Msg ID: 95082)

Re: Waverider

Thanks for the info, I'll check that book out. Although I'm a firm believer that God created the heavens and the earth along with all other life I haven't yet found anything scientifically that refutes the creation as described in Genesis.

Theories are just that, theories. From archaeological findings to historical documentation including science, all data that I have researched have confirmed the truth of the ancient scriptures rather than refuting them.

I know this may rub against all those who believe that they are ancestors of monkeys and formed from pre-mortal slim however I'm of the belief that the one who designed the universe also created life. Anyone who looks up at the sky on a clear dark night can plainly see the work of a designer, in fact the stars are still used as points of direction for those lost at sea or land. And where ever you have a design you have a designer, I prefer to call that designer God.

Cheers,

Rock

Albatros

(01/21/2003; 08:00:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95083)

Rock

Maybee it should read "Genius"...

Hipplebeck

(01/21/2003; 08:10:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95084)

The moral dilemma US citizens face

It is no different than the choice that a single person must make when they have run their credit cards up to such a high level they are faced with the choice of working hard and doing without for the next ten years to pay it off, or stealing.
You can rationalize it all you want, but invading Iraq is about stealing oil to pay off debt.
gold based money keeps you out of this problem by restricting how far into debt you can get. It keeps you honest in your financial affairs.
I've heard people say that gold is why they couldn't reflate during the depression, and therefore was the problem.
It wasn't.
The problem was the same age old problem, issuing more claims on real things than there are real things.
It ALWAYS ends with the same situation. A run on the bank.
The bank takes many forms, but fiat always ends this way.
There will be a run on Comex one day, it is the bank of gold that is accessable. There is a run on the US central bank going on right now. I gaurantee the US is bleeding gold right this minute to try to keep up appearances.
Fiat is a CONFIDENCE game.

Rock

(01/21/2003; 08:16:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95085)

Hipplebeck, your question, "Why does the US support this?"

I know you love taking pot shots at the US but let me say this much on behalf of US. I know you enjoy blaming all the worlds woes on America but Israel has the right to protect their people just like you have a right to protect your home, if it means putting a wall around it so be it.

Much like Saddam, it falls on Arafat's hands, if he would call off his homicide bombers just maybe Israel wouldn't have to build a wall to protect her people. I'd rather see 170 homes destroyed rather than 170 lives snuffed out. When someone survives a car crash you'll never hear of any one complaining about the damage that their vehicle sustained but that they were grateful they didn't lose their lives.

What would you do if you were in Israel's shoes? Maybe give the Palestines Jerusulam and then let them live as good neighbors?

Rock

(01/21/2003; 08:24:37 MDT - Msg ID: 95086)

Hipplebeck.. Round 2

Your comment, "You can rationalize it all you want, but invading Iraq is about stealing oil to pay off debt."

So let me get this straight just so everyone knows what your saying. Are you saying that IF Saddam didn't have weapons of mass destruction that the US would be going in to steal their oil anyway? Because thats what I'm reading from your most recent comment.

Albatros

(01/21/2003; 08:31:19 MDT - Msg ID: 95087)

Mr.Gresham

Entertaining link. The present world economic situation seems to have really thrown the commentators. Most articles relating to the economy in the newspapers lately are complete nonesence, sounding like political rhetoric. Could be the commentators don't really know what's going on, or it could be political influence. That's what makes this forum so refreshing, a small window in the fog of uncertainty.

White Rose

(01/21/2003; 08:49:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95088)

I am an American,

not a European. The reason that I made the comment about the U.S. about to kill hundreds of thousands of Iraqi's is that I do not believe that there is any justification for the U.S. to start a war.

Somehow, the U.S. was able to tolerate the Stalin and lots of other bad guys. We all believed in mutual self destruction. Somehow, we need to put the world back in some sort of balance so no one feels that it is necessary to go to war (or to eliminate any big buildings either).

To put the world in balance, it might require a change in economic structure. Americans will need to lower their standard of living.

The alternative -- to continue to steal a massive proportion of the wealth of others -- is to invite disaster.

Hipplebeck

(01/21/2003; 08:57:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95089)

Rock

Personally, I believe that if Isrealis were not stealing land they would not have these problems.
They have a dream of owning all of ancient Isreal again. The problem is that the land is inhabited with non Jews.
In order for the dream to be fulfilled they must steal the land away from people who are living on it.
Concerning Iraq, if Saddam played along, then there would be no need to invade, just like Saudi Arabia. As long as they recycle their oil money into the US as investments and be good little puppets then why invade? Saddam wants to break away from that game.

Albatros

(01/21/2003; 09:02:05 MDT - Msg ID: 95090)

Rock Vs Hipplebeck..Round 2

You sound a very virtuous person Rock, an admirable quality. However, as Black Blade once proffered, the Western economies rely so much on cheap oil then perhaps they are prepared to fight for it. Who really knows what's going on? Why hasn't the US kicked China out of Tibet? I think the watchdog of humanity should have protected that peace loving people from being overrun but they didn't. Why not?

CoBra(too)

(01/21/2003; 09:09:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95091)

Wow! White Rose -

Have you read "Pancea du Jour" by Dr. Kurt Richeb�cher
at "The Daily Reckoning".

Compliments from an european - cb2

PS: I'm still a very much and admiring pro-american guy, which doesn't imply to play to the tune the USD on the verge of the Titanic hitting the real (not proverbial) iceberg.

goldenboy

(01/21/2003; 09:16:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95092)

****$357.60*****

This price seems to be in the thick of recent tug of war which requires limiting loss of the contract and ascertaining how many delivery notices they get.

White Rose

(01/21/2003; 09:29:59 MDT - Msg ID: 95093)

**** 366.00 ***

We keep moving up, but slowly. Gold is political. The price is being moved up slowly to a balancing point where the central banks can buy more physical metal. And besides, there is a gap in the guesses at $366.

Humble Pie

(01/21/2003; 10:05:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95094)

Belgian post #95077

You Sir are a master at saying what I was thinking,Keep it up Ileave you to your work .Have a nice day.

Felix the Cat

(01/21/2003; 10:13:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95095)

The BoC is allowed to import the gold to China Mainland

http://www.chinagoldgroup.com/GoldNews/NewsDetail.asp?id=1223According to the speaker of The Bank of China (Boc), People Bank allowed BoC to import gold to China Mainland. This is the first time that the central bank of China allowed a business bank to import the gold to China.
The BoC is the most "active member" of The Shanghai Gold Exchange!

Waverider

(01/21/2003; 10:33:24 MDT - Msg ID: 95096)

Spot 'n Spike

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlGandalf - did you just feed them their breakfast?

Rock

(01/21/2003; 10:42:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95097)

Sir Albatros

Thank you for your kind words. You asked, "I think the watchdog of humanity should have protected that peace loving people from being overrun but they didn't. Why not?

Answer: US may not be able to control ALL of the conflicts world wide but like the local policeman, you CAN take a bite out of crime. The moral of the story, its always better to do something toward the good of man kind rather than nothing at all.

Gandalf the White

(01/21/2003; 11:22:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95098)

HELLO Lady Waverider !

SPOT and SPIKE are restless !
TOO much Holidays !!
I am hoping that they can JUMP at the CLOSE !
<;-)

Zhisheng

(01/21/2003; 11:30:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95099)

Up into the close again!

Shows strength of the physical. February futures and the spot seem to have been quite close all day. The paper people haven't overcome denial and doubt yet.

Belgian

(01/21/2003; 12:07:19 MDT - Msg ID: 95100)

CB - Gold exchange reserves.

For those who are interested in some more background on the recent Gold-reserve, sales...? swap...? lease...? of the CB of Portugal, the following recommended reading : The euro and the Stability of the International Monetary system. Robert Mundell (Columbia University-1999).Sorry, but have no link. Y'll have to Google it yourself.

It sheds some (a lot) light on the relationships between National Central Banks (12-within EMU) > ECB > BIS centered around the euro and Gold-reserves.

Please note the following : Portugals's NCB has 606 tonnes of Gold against Saudi Arabia with 143 tonnes = Official statistics on Official Gold holdings , WGC-2002 !!!-???
Remember that Saudi Arabia sells 20 million barrils of oil per day ! The equivalent wealth of 60 TONNES OF GOLD PER DAY ! Daily new goldproduction = 10 tonnes per day.

Aloha...Draw your conclusions on this WGC-statistical material and the daily reality in real figures and proportions.

Is it then so difficult to understand that this LBMA paper-gold-contract market HAS BEEN CREATED FOR A VERY SPECIFIC REASON, by those competing currency-forces, wich have opposite agendas ? Bear in mind that the NCBS > ECB > BIS - chain, distributes the profits on these paper-gold-trades.

Ask yourselve now : Wich currency needs a low POG and wich currency is enhanced by a high POG ? And who is controlling this market and its future outlook ?
It is of the highiest probability that CB-Gold-reserves are simply re-allocated between the present and future pro-Gold groups, rather than being sold for jewelry. But there must always remain enough physical available for us lilliputans.
The Giants must restrain themselves and only accumulate with futures...BECAUSE THERE IS NOT ENOUGH OF IT !!!!!

Gandalf the White

(01/21/2003; 12:15:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95101)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !UPDATE #7 as of HIGH NOON Tuesday 01/21/03 Denver Time.
REMEMBER only EIGHT DAYS to go before Entry DEADLINE ! <;-)
---

QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003:

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 = $358.1 + $7.0 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a LOW = $350.0
1/17/03 = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a LOW = $355.3 and Sir ROCK is "King of the Hill" !
1/21/03 = $357.5 + $0.7 with a HIGH = $358.1 and a LOW = $353.4 and Sir Goldenboy is "KING of the HILL" !

===
ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

**** $750.0 **** Caradoc (1/17/03; 10:49:20MT - msg#: 94778

**** $426.2 **** drawmax (1/20/03; 08:09:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 94990)

**** $419.4 **** The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - msg#: 94798

**** $403.5 **** misetich (1/17/03; 18:25:29MT - msg#: 94815

**** $400.0 **** Sundeck (1/17/03; 04:25:05MT - msg#: 94737

**** $396.4 **** Bulldog (1/17/03; 20:05:57MT - msg#: 94825

**** $390.0 **** Galerider (01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - msg#: 94724)

**** $387.5 **** knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - msg#: 94800

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (1/17/03; 05:12:59MT - msg#: 94738

**** $383.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - msg#: 94791

**** $382.5 **** Hipplebeck (1/18/03; 06:47:33MT - msg#: 94850

**** $379.1 **** ha_tey_o (1/17/03; 07:24:56MT - msg#: 94741

**** $378.9 **** erayboy (1/17/03; 03:05:04MT - msg#: 94729
**** $378.8 **** miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - msg#: 94805

**** $378.1 **** a nation of one (01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - msg#: 94720

**** $375.5 **** balzac (1/18/03; 14:15:59MT - msg#: 94880

**** $375.0 **** Mountain Top (1/19/03; 10:56:32MT - msg#: 94937

**** $374.6 **** harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - msg#: 94792

**** $374.1 **** Slowman (1/17/03; 06:10:05MT - msg#: 94739
**** $374.0 **** Zhisheng (1/17/03; 09:53:34MT - msg#: 94762

**** $373.5 **** kahulik (01/20/03; 11:08:21MT - msg#: 94998

**** $372.2 **** Houston (1/19/03; 10:30:11MT - msg#: 94934

**** $372.0 **** OZ (1/17/03; 02:14:25MT - msg#: 94727

**** $370.5 **** VanRip (1/17/03; 07:59:23MT - msg#: 94747

**** $369.9 **** Ole Man (1/18/03; 23:30:28MT - msg#: 94912

**** $369.2 **** slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - msg#: 94796

**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750

**** $368.2 **** Zelts (01/21/03; 07:34:30MT - msg#: 95080

**** $367.4 **** Kagalaska (01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - msg#: 94721

**** $366.0 **** White Rose (01/21/03; 09:29:59MT - msg#: 95093

**** $365.2 **** pilgrims_gold (1/18/03; 10:01:47MT - msg#: 94863

**** $365.0 **** monTROZ (01/20/03; 12:50:24MT - msg#: 95005

**** $364.2 **** Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - msg#: 94755

**** $363.0 **** luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - msg#: 94795

**** $362.5 **** EagleOne (1/18/03; 14:02:13MT - msg#: 94877

**** $362.3 **** Renny (1/18/03; 05:15:47MT - msg#: 94848

**** $362.0 **** Albatros (01/21/03; 07:48:42MT - msg#: 95081

**** $361.1 **** Lothar of the Hill People (01/20/03; 13:51:40MT - msg#: 95013

**** $360.8 **** Liberty Head (01/20/03; 19:45:52MT - msg#: 95040

**** $360.5 **** Felix the Cat (1/20/03; 03:35:20MT - msg#: 94984

**** $360.0 **** Henri (1/18/03; 15:28:31MT - msg#: 94886

**** $359.1 **** 24carat (1/18/03; 16:10:36MT - msg#: 94889

**** $358.0 **** makcumka (1/20/03; 05:44:13MT - msg#: 94987

**** $357.6 **** goldenboy (01/21/03; 09:16:39MT - msg#: 95092

**** $348.0 **** Topaz (1/17/03; 03:06:48MT - msg#: 94730
===

INVALID ENTRIES
---
NONE !!!!!!
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.
---

THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February �03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 -----

The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old) goldpiece !!
Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin was
Minted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce.
(Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)
---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
(Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines"
LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!!
READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
---
LET the CONTEST CONTINUE !!
<;-)

wiley

(01/21/2003; 12:21:41 MDT - Msg ID: 95102)

Contest

****369.0****
I finally convinced my rich sister--that could rock the market.

Trojan

(01/21/2003; 12:35:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95103)

The Build Up Continues... The Game Of Chicken Continues

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2681295.stmThe Military Build Up Continues.

Both Bush and Blair speak out again.

Iraq is in Material Breach.

The PR Campaign starts.

The US publishes 32 page document showing where Iraq is in default.

Armtitage explains the document and now heads to Russia.

The price of Gold goes up. Positions harden.

BLix says only 50% of his work is done and will tell the UN that on the 27TH.

France's position hardens on NO to War. They have one of the Five VETO's. The end game is on.

Unless Saddam blinks and leaves Iraq, gets Killed by one of his own the War is now 90% sure in my opinion.

Things will heat up each day.

Edward Kennedy about to give a speech against War.

Positions harden. Stay Tuned.

Trojan

(01/21/2003; 12:46:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95104)

Jimmy's Hard At Work And It Keeps Getting Colder

http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=1634The Oil problem is getting worse each day.

No solution as yet.

It keeps getting Colder in North America. I heard a report this AM that the extreme cold might last until mid February.

If/when War Starts (Early Feb) it will further weaken the Overall situation.

This is bad for Global Economy. Stay Tuned.

The US Dollar is dangerously near $1.00

When it breaks it LOOK OUT BELOW.

Good for Gold...

Mr Gresham

(01/21/2003; 12:47:30 MDT - Msg ID: 95105)

Good Company, White Rose

I'll say it again. In such a time of turmoil, couldn't be better online company to be amidst than the fine people here (and also some of the other free-thinking castles nearby) where just about all of the issues are considered and about as-good-as-it-gets answers offered. Any other medium come close? Nawwwwwww!

White Rose: You did justice yesterday to the memories of Dr. King, and to Hans & Sophie Scholl & Christoph Probst, and to all those who risk themselves to speak out. May I have their courage, too, when it is really needed of me.

Trojan

(01/21/2003; 12:58:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95106)

@ Mr Gresham "Bravery Or Stupidity ? "

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=578&ncid=578&e=8&u=/nm/20030121/ts_nm/iraq_shields_dcAny volunteers here on the USA Gold Forum ?

I hear it's getting Warmer in Bagdad each day.

BUNKER BUSTER's on the way soon.

Helpful Hint: Don't stand near the Presidential Palaces.

Trojan

(01/21/2003; 13:06:14 MDT - Msg ID: 95107)

One Guess Who Leaked This Story :-)

Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2003 2:43:47 PM

More Details in Former Weapons Inspector's Arrest

Channel Six News has learned that Colonie Police arrested former UN Weapons Inspector and Delmar resident Scott Ritter two years ago as part of an Internet sex sting operation.

Sources say Ritter was charged in June of 2001 for trying to lure a 16 year-old girl he met online to a Burger King. But that 16-year old girl was really a Colonie Police investigator.

Sources say Ritter was charged with a misdemeanor, but the case was adjourned in contemplation of dismissal and a judge sealed the record.� Ritter searched Iraq for weapons in the years following the Gulf War.

More recently, he's been speaking out against President Bush's policies on Iraq and has been a frequent contributor on national and local newscasts, including Channel 6 News.
-----------------------------------------------------

Who will GUESS who Mr Source Is ? :-)

Trojan

(01/21/2003; 13:14:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95108)

Follow Up To Ritter Post

http://www.msnbc.com/local/WNYT/M264375.asp?cp1=1Just to Give an Official Link.

It's nice to have the FBI and CIA on your side. :-)

The Topic is relevant to the Ramp Up in the Other War for the Hearts and Minds of Americans. The War is definitely on...

GratefulForGold

(01/21/2003; 13:35:14 MDT - Msg ID: 95109)

SPOT 'n SPIKE

are still feeling frisky in the after market.

Black Blade

(01/21/2003; 13:42:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95110)

Re: Trojan - Ritter Story

Actually that story broke in an upstate New York newspaper and the journalist was reprimanded for not following up the story. The reporter was reviewing old police records and stumbled across an old police report. It turns out that it was another Scott Ritter. It sounds more like an over ambitious reporter not checking his sources.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/21/2003; 13:50:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95111)

Oops! Sorry Trojan - Wrong Inspector

I got that confused with yet another UN inspector who was in another embarrassing situation recently. The Ritter story is still evolving but looks like he may have had a skeleton fall out of his closet.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

a nation of one

(01/21/2003; 13:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 95112)

Re: coinguy

Coinguy says not to follow my advice. He didn't understand my post. What I was doing was forefending discouragement among readers of this forum, should the DOW go up. I did not say that I thought that was the only possibility.

Trojan

(01/21/2003; 14:02:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95113)

Thanks Black Blade and What's your Take on this ?

http://www.nationalpost.com/search/site/story.asp?id=348E20F1-3243- 4616-947C-90C7942320BF In today's National Post (Canada) is this interestig article.

GATA has already sent out a post disagreeing with article. I guess with reference to the POG holding if this is done.

Opinions ?

Thamks...

P.S. Market Off 143 or so. DOW gives back 400 of 500 Point Rally. Start of Year 8341 Now 8441 OOPS :-)

Trojan

(01/21/2003; 14:12:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95114)

Bad Link Re: National Post Article

http://www.nationalpost.com/search/site/story.asp?id=348E20F1-3243-4616-947C-90C7942320BFHope this one works. GATA sent me the other one. I got this one direct from National Post.

Go Canada :-)

Cold here in Montreal - 20 C That's -4 Farenheit..
Brrrrr

Trojan

(01/21/2003; 14:19:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95115)

The Laugh Of The Day :-)

Sorry for being a Plentiful Poster in the last hour or so. Lot's of things happening.

I just had to share this before heading off to make my supper.

Our girl Maria on CNBC just said Ford posted a LOSS of OVER a Billion Dollars BUT That's Better than they did last year. LOL

My Comments:

Better Than Expected. That's Good, Right ?

Yes Indeed :-)

a nation of one

(01/21/2003; 14:20:18 MDT - Msg ID: 95116)

just for the sake of attracting criticism

I am making these specific predictions.

1. The dollar will fall below 1.00.
2. Before summer, the DOW will go below 7,000, maybe below 6,000.
3. At some time before June 1, 2003, Gold will go up some more.

How much? Yes. That's the right question. Personally, I look for 360 to be established as the new low within the foreseeable future, say, between now and the end of May, maybe sooner. It could be as soon as next week. But really I don't know, because humans don't know these things.

But here is something humans do know. If you know how to make 400%, after fifteen years, if you start with $1,000, you will have more money than exists. And if you know how to do this, and if you choose to be a consultant, you're an idiot. This is why I don't believe anyone who says they make 400% reliably, especially if they are a consultant. And there is another reason I don't believe them. Here it is. There is not one human being on the whole planet who has ever made 150 billion dollars. Yet, if you know how to make 400% annually, after fifteen years you would have made that much. Therefore, simply as a matter of fact, nobody has ever been able to actually make 400% consistently, year after year. Of course, someone might SAY that they know how, if saying so would sell more newletters, or if it would get them hired to give a speech to a bunch of gullible investors. But who would waste their time trying to get invitations to talk to investors, if he knows how to make 400%? Nobody.

So, Harry Schultz, here's my challenge: Put your reputation where your mouth is, or hold your peace. You don't have to give away all your knowledge. You don't have to tell us how we can make 400%. Just tell us what we have to do to make just ONE hundred percent. Then you can stop. That shouldn't be difficult. Then I'll believe you. Until then, you are just another cloud blowing in the wind.

TownCrier

(01/21/2003; 14:23:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95117)

Tuition is free. Belgian's recommendation on 1999 Nobel Laureate Mundell

http://www.columbia.edu/~ram15/lux.htmlSome various but notable excerpts, while I'm in here...
-----------

Stability of Monetary Policy

The importance of the monetary policy stance scheduled for the EMU countries can hardly be underestimated. No currency has ever survived as an international currency with a high rate of inflation. Historically, the countries producing the great currencies have avoided inflation by maintaining the gold or silver content, with devaluation or debasement a comparatively infrequent phenomenon. The lower the rate of inflation, the lower the cost of holding money balances, and the more of them will be held. In addition to a low rate of inflation, a stable rate is also desirable; because inflation and variance go hand in hand.

[A point to ponder for gold investors (if you have an interest, contact Centennial for a memo with more info on confiscation): ]

...the United States has used controls as an instrument of its foreign policy. From 1933 until 1975, U.S. citizens were forbidden to hold gold despite the fact that, for most of that period, the dollar was supposed to be "freely convertible into gold" along the lines of the IMF Statute, Article IV-4-b of the Bretton Woods Agreement. ... In subsequent years, accounts of "erring" foreign governments have been blocked as part of U.S. or international sanctions.

There is no question of course that the United States has a right to impose such sanctions over the use of its own currency. By the same token, however, the competition from a new European currency that is an alternative to the dollar has a chance of restoring some of the earlier laudable tenets of international economic liberalism if the current trend toward dirigism can be resisted.

The Fall-Back Factor

Modern currencies differ from the great currencies of the past, which were all either gold or silver or convertible into one or both of those metals. These currencies had a fall-back value if the state collapsed. If enemies approached the walls of the great Italian city-states that coined the sequins, florins or ducats of the Middle Ages, the 3.5-gram gold content would still maintain its value. Metallic currencies frequently outlive the state issuing them... That does not hold for a paper currency. After the Battle of Gettysburg in the United States, Confederate notes became worthless.

Until the advent of the dollar, there is no historical record of any fiat currency achieving great international significance. ... The dollar achieved its international importance as a gold currency. When it was selected as the unofficial anchor at Bretton Woods, it had ceased to be internally redeemable, but was still externally convertible into gold... If the dollar is now a fiat currency, as a "ghost of gold"it is the exception that makes the rule.

The introduction of the SDR provides an illustration of the importance of the fallback factor. ... After the dollar was taken off gold, the international monetary authorities reneged on the gold guarantee, and the SDR went through a series of transformations... Had its gold guarantee been maintained, however, the SDR would have been much more important in the international monetary system and qualified as an infinitely more useful supranational unit of account. Lacking both a commodity fallback value and the backing of a strong state, the SDR fell by the wayside on the scrapheap of bureaucratic timidity.

There is in this a lesson for the euro. In any great political emergency, and especially one that threatened the durability of the EU, there would be a run on the euro that would not be mitigated by any fall-back value. A run or even the risk of a run would make it difficult to float long term securities in euros. The same strictures hold for the risks of exchange control. ... It is true that such an emergency might also weaken the dollar. Total political and military security can never be assumed.

The lesson in this for the euro is that the ESCB will need larger holdings of external reserves than otherwise or than the United States, at least at first. Fortunately, the EU countries have dollars and gold in abundance and will therefore be able to meet any foreseeable contingency.

Redundant Reserves from Pooling

Reserve needs in Europe will be lower in Europe on two counts. First, with the formation of the EMU, intra-union deficits and surpluses will be netted out and reserve needs for the union as a whole will be considerably smaller than the sum of the reserve needs of individual members. If external (mainly dollar) reserves were at an appropriate level before the union, they would be excessive after it. The same holds for gold reserves, of which the EU countries account for almost half the world's monetary stock--although here gold reserves could partially compensate for the weakness created by the absence of the strong central state.

Diversification Problem

One of the problems associated with the movement toward an international monetary system dominated by euros as well as dollars lies in the difficulty of the transition. Weakness in the euro would imply appreciation of the dollar. More probably, however, the main danger is in a prospective appreciation of the euro. ...it is much more likely that once confidence has been established in the euro, several countries will want to exchange euros for dollars, threatening sweeping changes in the dollar-euro rate. The mere expectation that other countries were considering diversification would provoke expectations of dollar weakness and massive shifts of the type that occurred in the late 1970s.

The danger point will come when US growth slows and the US expansion ends. The pattern over two centuries of recessions in the United States is for the balance of payments to worsen under the gold standard or fixed exchange rates, and for the dollar to depreciate against foreign currencies when it is flexible. ... There is no reason to think that any weakening of growth in the US economy in 1999 or 2000 will be any different. The dollar will therefore depreciate.

What will be different, however, is the existence of the euro. In the past when the dollar has depreciated, there has been diversification out of the dollar. But the thinness of the markets for "strong"currencies like the yen, mark and the Swiss franc quickly puts a floor to the falling dollar. The situation with the euro will be quite different, taking into account both the large size of if transactions domain and the reserve demand for it and for eurobonds as a new investment vehicle. Some degree of management of the rate will become imperative.

...The more countries that enter it, the more attractive it will be. Success snowballs.

The dollar-euro rate will become a matter of great concern to Europe, the United States and the rest of the world. Diversification from the dollar into the euro would create the threat of a soaring euro and play havoc with the sensitive issues of competitiveness and unemployment in Europe. The alternative of a falling euro on the other hand would raise the specter of an outbreak of inflation that would necessitate deflationary policies. It would be a grave mistake to believe that the closed nature of the three big blocs, would make exchange rates less important or that the dollar-euro rate can be treated with "benign neglect."

The most urgent focus for management will be on the dollar-euro rate. ... In view of the long period of transition from a mainly dollar world to a world in which the dollar and euro vie on equal terms, it may be necessary to develop the infrastructure capable of dealing with the problem.

Suppose the dollar is depreciating against the euro and it is agreed that intervention is desirable. Where should the responsibility for intervention lie? Should the U.S. support the dollar by selling reserves, or should Europe support the dollar by buying reserves? Action by the U.S., taken alone, without sterilization, is deflationary for the world economy; action by Europe is inflationary. Obviously action by the US would be desirable if there were excess inflation in the world economy, whereas action by Europe would be desirable if there were excess deflation.

[International] Diversification will mean a tendency for the euro to appreciate against the dollar.

Recapping...

The euro also has also two weaknesses: it is not backed by a central state, and it has no fallback value. In an unstable world, these weaknesses would be fatal. ... [however] very substantial EU gold and currency reserves, which could be centralized or ear-marked for the ECB if the need arises ... to mitigate the weakness of the EU central government.

[On diversification...] Once a cycle starts in which the dollar starts to depreciate against the euro, speculation will make the cycle self-reinforcing. This presents a potential danger point for the international monetary system which will have to be managed internationally.

It should not be thought that a change as momentous as the introduction of the euro promises to be will leave "other things constant." The only thing that will remain constant are the laws of change, which include competition and expansion. By 2010 if not before the euro area will be larger than the transactions area of the United States and competition will probably provoke policy reactions in the United States and other countries. ... Countervailing steps will then by taken by the United States...

--------(see url for full commentary)------

Sorry for the length, but as with most important matters, they are worth doing well -- an accomplishment that does not usually come from brief and casual dabbling in the art and substance of the matter.

R.

Black Blade

(01/21/2003; 14:25:41 MDT - Msg ID: 95118)

Greenspan - Return To Gold Standard?

I don't see it happening. There's just no support and politicians just love to gorge themselves at the public trough. A gold standard would require fiscal discipline and in this country that is highly unlikely. The POG would have to be much higher than $350 an ounce for it to work anyway. It is an interesting idea though but not workable under current "management" if you get my drift.

- Black Blade

Rock

(01/21/2003; 14:29:04 MDT - Msg ID: 95119)

Re: White Rose

Your comment: "I do not believe that there is any justification for the U.S. to start a war."

Just so everyone can understand where your coming from let me fine tune the question and ask this. When US went to war in 1990 to liberate Kuwate, do you consider any justification for US to start that war?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/21/2003; 14:32:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95120)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. I've noticed that USAGOLD / Centennial stresses education more than most of your competitors. Why is that?

Q. What are some of the criteria a prospective investor should look for in a gold firm?

Cavan Man

(01/21/2003; 14:35:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95121)

Done deal?

01/21 16:16
U.S. Sends Carriers, Division to Gulf; Boosts Troops (Update1)
By Tony Capaccio

Washington, Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. is sending two aircraft carriers and 16,000 troops equipped with the most advanced electronic gear to the Persian Gulf region, boosting U.S. forces to about 185,000, Pentagon officials said.

Gimli_

(01/21/2003; 14:36:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95122)

Test to see who reads "The Afternoon Gold Report..." by Jon Warner

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlWho else saw double after reading the first section? :-))

admin

(01/21/2003; 15:04:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95123)

Final Warning

We warned recently about all the off-topic posting, i.e. political discussion that never makes it back to the subject of gold. So we'll make this the final warning before we start pulling codes. Thank you for your co-operation. The management.

P.S. Don't underestimate our determination to keep this Forum a service to our clientele. We've cleaned house before and we have no compunctions about doing it again.

Mr Gresham

(01/21/2003; 15:17:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95124)

amen

It may not be the home stretch, or the beginning of the end, but, as Churchill said, "the end of the beginning." If you haven't got a plan, and your time spent here part of implementing (including thinking about) that plan, then drop back, zip it, and think about what your plan is.

Lunch with old best friend, discussing the financial hurdles ahead (aged parents, running out of money, "woe is me" etc etc) and my opening -- a very slim one -- came up, to inject my "solution", so I hum the first notes of our old Bond favorite, "Goldfinger". He smiles, condescendingly, and tosses back, "yes, and gold has been a HORRIBLE investment for the last 20 years."

And that's all there is to it, isn't there? So, no more can be said, to even one as intelligent as my friend. Story finished.

Be glad you're among those here who, very possibly, are going to "outperform" all those way more smart people out there, starting out with way more money than we. Be glad to be in this small band of skeptics' skeptics, who, though we may have been financial "stopped clocks" these past 20 years, are just about to have our chimes ring, many, many times.

TownCrier

(01/21/2003; 15:47:08 MDT - Msg ID: 95125)

$16 billion -- atypically big open market intervention by the Fed. What gives?

We haven't really seen numbers this high in a single operation since the fallout days from 9/11 2001.

With the market in fed funds cooperating with the FOMC policy directive (trading this morning at 1.25%), the Fed's NY trading desk nevertheless saw fit to add $16 billion in overnight reserves to the nation's banking system.

I am curious to see how this runs off tomorrow. It may have been necessarily weighted for last-minute reserve maintenance purposes, in which case it will likely be followed by a smaller but longer term operation.

Making money is that easy. All the more reason for gold diversification.

R.

CoBra(too)

(01/21/2003; 15:58:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95126)

@ - Sounds like a convincing explanation?

TC - This is from Richard 640 quoting from Capital Stool:

"Note how Al Green dropped a 16 ton load of Repos into KenoLand today. Where did it go? Probably to the banks, who are having to prop up some more failing hedge funds. HedgeHog statements are landing in the mailboxes as we speak. And unlike the mutual fund hopers, HedgeHog investors generally have to fly blind until the quarter end or year end statement print.

Will we see a massive run out of these funds? The very source of all the short squeezing?

All I can say is that the U.S. Peso promptly collapsed and gold ran to even higher highs when Al decided to drop his load. Yet the gold stocks barely moved. A massive move in either the gold shares or the gold contract is imminent".

Cavan Man

(01/21/2003; 15:58:32 MDT - Msg ID: 95127)

Mr. Gresham

Cheers. (Gold, AU, 24K et al)

Black Blade

(01/21/2003; 16:02:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95128)

Gold & Silver Review of 1/21/03

http://news.goldseek.com/Altavest/1043183186.php
Snippit:

From the outset it appeared as if gold bulls were going to get the short end of the stick this session as prices slumped by over $3. However, bulls fought gallantly late in the session and prices surged out of the red and into the black. What was responsible for the last minute bullish heroics? The US dollar index dropped again today and is still hovering around three-year lows and looks poised to dip further. The stock market is floundering and sold off further late in the session. Energy markets were lower during most of today's session but surged late to end above water. We're still near highs not seen since 1997 and the trend remains up. One thing is certain; Iraq remains in the limelight, tensions continue to escalate, and markets are reacting. This environment is ripe for gold to rally, and as we've seen it has done so by about $90 this year. It's highly improbable the geopolitical fuel that is feeding the bullish gold cause will burn off anytime soon, and that should be enough to keep prices buoyant. The multitude of bullish variables supporting gold prices are not likely to make a one-eighty anytime soon, so expect gold to trudge higher. An article "Gold gain is imminent, forecaster says" by Thom Calandra of marketwatch.com references someone who feels we'll approach $1,000 an ounce within a year or two. "Cut to the chase: Turk (James Turk, Editor of Freemarket Gold & Money Report) sees gold, currently at $355 an ounce, rising to $366 by the end of January, which is just 10 days away. The price of the metal will reach $934 an ounce by February 2004, he says."

Black Blade: I am not a TA type by any stretch of the imagination (I am more a proponent of Fundamental Anaylsis), but I have to admit there are some wildly bullish scenarios out there no matter what your stripe. James Turk's "Fear Index" as described by Thom Calandra's piece on MarketWatch today was quite interesting and it does fit with what we see from a FA perspective. I have quoted Erik Gebharb (author of the above article) on occasion in my Market Reports and he too has taken notice of Turk's analysis. Actually I would like to "talk shop" with both if I had time as that would be some interesting discussion. The similarities between the 1970's "fear" and stagflationary events appear to be unfolding before our eyes once again. Now who was it that said "those who do not remember the past and doomed to repeat it"? (Actually it was George Santayana) Whatever differences there are between the TA and FA crowd exist, it is undeniable that we are on the same page now. Life is really about to � please excuse me for saying this � get "interesting".

TownCrier

(01/21/2003; 16:03:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95129)

HEADLINE: Fund manager says gold foreshadows volatility

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030121/economy_commodities_crabel_1.htmlNEW YORK, Jan 21 (Reuters) - A spike in gold prices to near 6-year highs last week suggests commodities will fluctuate widely in the months ahead, a leading commodity futures fund manager said.

"We're at a secular low period in commodities that we're not likely to see for a while. This will mean more volatility," said Toby Crabel, president and CEO of Crabel Capital Management LLC in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

"It's like a pressure cooker. We don't know where the steam will come out of the pot, but it's forceful and will be forced out," Crabel told Reuters in an interview.

"We have a pretty good Federal Reserve chairman, but Greenspan is likely to retire soon and I see no viable replacement and that could create a level of uncertainty that could exacerbate whatever problems we have," Crabel added.

He says he is not smart enough to figure out which markets will trend, but he expects that gold will probably move higher.

-----(see url for article)------

He makes a good point about the inevitable changing of the guard at the Fed apt to be more problematic than supportive of the dollar's fate.

The other point to glean from this Reuter's report is simply that it is yet another in a growing string of media reports that incrementally act to turn the tide in public sentiment. As it now is, gold investment in America is still a minority affair, a good time to stake your own generous claim under favorable terms.

R.

Cavan Man

(01/21/2003; 16:03:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95130)

A unilateral attack......

.....on Iraq without UN benediction will render the UN redundant and impotent (that's perhaps a good thing I suppose). This is AU positive.

Feeling uncomfortable needing now to make direct references to gold so as to make the cut....CM

CoBra(too)

(01/21/2003; 16:17:01 MDT - Msg ID: 95131)

@ Admin - Thanks for the Reminder

You couldn't have said it in a more civil way and BTW Gold is up today. Get u some cb2

Black Blade

(01/21/2003; 16:21:47 MDT - Msg ID: 95132)

SBI slashes interest on gold deposits from 4% to 1.25%

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/html/uncomp/articleshow?artid=35105973
Snippit:

The Gold Deposit scheme, which was launched by Indian banks with much fanfare, may be awaiting a quiet burial. SBI, which accounts for over 95 per cent of such deposits, recently slashed the interest rate it offered just 1.25 per cent from 3-4 per cent. After the cut, gold deposits will attract a 1.25 per cent return irrespective of the maturity, against the earlier 3-4 per cent applicable for deposits of 3-7-year maturity. The rate cut is linked to returns on such products internationally. And, the move reflects SBI's reluctance to pursue a scheme which failed to take off. "It's not worth pursuing the scheme, given the reluctance among Indian savers to part with their jewellery. To date, SBI has collected just 7 tonnes of gold," said an SBI official. The objective was to attract privately-held gold, reduce the country's reliance on imports and provide owners with an additional income, besides freeing them of hassles like storage and security. "Even at 3-4 per cent interest, the jewellery holders never found the scheme attractive, and now the slashing of interest rate may prove to be a death-knell for the scheme," says gold analyst Madhusudan Daga. According to the SBI official, the poor quality of Indian gold was also an issue. "Very often, the assayed value of gold arrived at by SBI was less than what the depositor claimed," he said. The scheme required SBI to accept gold jewellery from depositors, offering the prevailing interest on the assayed value and giving back hall-marked gold on maturity of the deposit.

Black Blade: I had noted here before that this scheme (scam?) was doomed. They grossly under estimated the Asian cultures affinity to physical ownership. In a culture where government and institutions are viewed with suspicion it was obvious that this plan was flawed from the start. Now the bank appears to have thrown in the towel. My congratulations to the Indians who were not gullible to fall for this scam. Another point that I find odd is the typical disinformation about declining buying of gold in India. Rural Indians buy gold as they harvest crops and sell gold for new planting. Gold is a savings account to them much as a bank account is to western cultures. Unfortunately the anti-gold crowd will not disclose that part of the story but rather attempt to paint a different story about the gold market "losing luster" and other such absurdities.

Off to the gym!

Leigh

(01/21/2003; 16:27:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95133)

Silverado

http://www.worldnetdaily.comBig article on Silverado. This is the headline story on a very popular online website.

Galerider

(01/21/2003; 16:37:24 MDT - Msg ID: 95135)

CURRENCIES

Question. Are there any currencies out there that are truly safe havens? Gold backed? Russian ruble perhaps?

(01/21/2003; 16:37:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95136)

Cavan Man

We are not aspiring to 100% gold content, but the discussion should at least relate to the economy, political-economy, etc. What we don't want is for this to become a battle ground between those for or against the war; those for or against the United States. That was getting old in a hurry. We need content. You know -- advancing the overall information/knowledge level for all concerned. I think you know where we're coming from.

CoBra(too)

(01/21/2003; 16:44:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95137)

An excellent Essay by Prof. Antal Fekete ...

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/passiton.cfm?PID=2762An excellent... As it was reproduced on several sites already, I've felt it's OK to reproduce it here as well.
The message for starters is the fact what futures markets are supposed to do. And more to the point in agricutural economies farmers never allowed to short more than one years produce. This was also true for metals and has been adopted as a iron rule to any commodity exchange.

What and when and why was cast in iron rule broken - in particular in terms of Gold and other precious metals. Remember the Hunt Silver (legit!)corner in 1980 and/or Warren Buffet's Silver scare off or the PT/PD default of Tocom recently.

Is this the kind of default we can expect at the LBMA and COMEX presently? cb2

Cavan Man

(01/21/2003; 16:45:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95138)

Critically view the world through a golden perspective right here and right now. That's what it has always been about. Kudos to USAG.

Cavan Man

(01/21/2003; 16:46:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95139)

Hi CB(too)

The link is not working properly.

Rock

(01/21/2003; 17:04:02 MDT - Msg ID: 95140)

Admin

Thanks for throwing in the gold flag. Sometimes its easy to deviate from said content due to the passion of the moment. Sir Mk, I'll make sure I abide by the rules of the castle.

Even though earnings so far pretty much fell in line with the street estimates the market has ignored it. Tomorrow we have some more big hitters reporting, it should be interesting.

goldquest

(01/21/2003; 17:04:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95141)

U S Dollar

about to fall through 100.00. Gold is going to head north rather quickly.
Simple solution to war: Pay Saddam $20 Billion, plus travel expenses, to leave town. Saudi Arabia can let him bunk with Edi Amin until Saddam can find gainful employment. U S saves billions in war costs and human costs. With all of the war savings, pay the new Iraq dictator the going cost for his oil. All of the military might, gathered in the Gulf area, can buy souvenirs and return home. Everybody lives happily ever after, including gold bugs who wisely accummulated gold in all forms, knowing that the economy is still going to hell in a hand basket! Do your own DD!

TownCrier

(01/21/2003; 17:10:41 MDT - Msg ID: 95142)

CoBra(too) on Greenspan's 16 billion offspring

Candidly, it is probably too early for reasonable speculation along the lines of the article you cited regarding the propping of foundering funds. Overnight repos as we see here alone wouldn't make an effective prop -- no more than an icicle cane to an old man in sunny Sarhara.

Tomorrow's action may be more telling about the nature of the cash need, particularly with respect to ruling out any one-off effects of a Wednesday-ending reserve maintenance period that might have simply caught the banks behind on their position. Ah, the wonders of time.

R.

Rock

(01/21/2003; 17:31:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95143)

No wonder Paul O'Neil Got The Ax

His quote from the Guilded Opinion, "[the country is] on the edge of a golden age of prosperity..." --Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, June 24, 2001

Wow, what planet does he live on?

CoBra(too)

(01/21/2003; 17:46:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95144)

@ TC - A quote from Felix Zulauf ...

Maybe one of the last 'gold gnomes' of Zurich.

"The policy of the U.S. central bank is going to destroy the dollar. Confidence in the U.S. currency at some point will collapse, and you'll have a run on dollars. Money can't go to other currencies, because they have to support the dollar. Gold will act as a monetary currency - a currency without the liabilities of ill-guided central bankers."

That's intended as a response to the 16 tons - as long as all the participants to the fiat fraud are playing along and may even - "have to" support THE RESERVE CURRENCY in the complete lack of other FIAT to fill the void ... it is prol'ly not as important to figure out the exact destiny of any FED created paper out of foul air. (Wow, that's a late nite super long creation of a short sentence! Sorry).

So, here you've got it "Gold will act as monetary currency" ... and as long as you can accumulate some with your fiat on the cheap side - hurry up, before it's all gone ... cb2

ElGordo

(01/21/2003; 17:51:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95145)

Whoa Chapman and Tice (prudent bear fund) caught in scam

@ leighI visit worldnetdaily often, just saw your link. Its amazing
that this story is featured so prominently. I looked at
Silverado a few weeks ago. I was interested in the new coal
tech they talk about and then I noticed a correction they made
in a news release saying that the company actually had no
ownership in the tech, it was their VP that had ownership of
patent rights. For months they had sucked in investors indicating
it was silverado the company that had the rights to the clean
coal technology. This company is VERY odd.

I see Chapman was promoting it, there goes his reputation!
I will never take him seriously again. As far as Tice of Prudent
Bear Funds, wow, they are in Silverado for 1 million shares plus
1 million warrants I believe. What a disaster. How could he be
snookered by Silverado like that that? That Goldseek site has also
been heavily promoting Silverado and several analysts on it have
been pumping a lot of weird small gold companies.

The prudent bear fund is going to wind up looking like a bunch
of morons on the front page of the WSJ one of these days! lol
Too bad. Watch out for companies listed on the vancouver exchange,
thats for sure. The mainstream media is going to take a swing
at goldbugs soon I bet. The fact that Tice got snookered is quite
a story. Trouble in bugland for sure.

ElGordo

(01/21/2003; 18:05:32 MDT - Msg ID: 95146)

Coldest air yet for NE this Thur Fri

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=1That giant sucking sound is Natural Gas coming out of storage.

ElGordo

(01/21/2003; 18:19:44 MDT - Msg ID: 95147)

Chavez accepts Carter plan

Breaking BBCUnder the plan Chavez would face vote in August. Strike would end
now.

misetich

(01/21/2003; 18:35:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95148)

Merrill Lynch: Fund Managers Remain Shy On Stocks

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=2&ts=1043162760000Snip:
LONDON, Jan. 21 (MktNews) - Global Fund managers are a shade more
confident about the global macro backdrop and what it means for
equities. However, historically low cash levels are limiting their
ability to add to equity positions, according to the Merrill
Lynch Fund manager Survey for January.
David Bowers, Chief Global Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch
said of the survey's findings, "Either this is a very cheap market,
where high levels of risk aversion are preventing proper allocation of
capital to equities, or else this is a market in which fund managers are
already fully invested in the belief that it is cheap ... time will
tell."

The fact that fund managers have consistently retained their
allegiance to equities rather than switching to bonds or the growing
trend toward corporate bonds is not surprising, given that the main
focus of the Merrill survey, which talks to 481 fund managers and asset
allocators managing $780 billion, is essentially equities.
Over the last two years the survey has steadfastly remained
faithful to equities as an asset class, despite falling stock markets.
..........
At the same time the levels of cash fell again, down to 4.2% from
4.4% in December and 4.6% in November. Merrill said that expectations
for the cycle continue to improve, but lacked conviction. It's now
long-term core theme of balance sheet rebuilding continues, with
investors wanting companies to repay debt.
**********
Misetich

Fully invested and no cash to buy "cheap" valued Dow and Nasduck stocks.....

Got a funny feeling that if they like stocks priced at these values they're going to love it 20-30% lower

Lets stay on the deflating stock value trail

Got gold?

GoldnSilver2002

(01/21/2003; 18:45:32 MDT - Msg ID: 95149)

The vancouver stock exchange is known to be dicey aka bre-x

Yes at the vancouver gold conference i heard chapman had been run out of town for stock scams.And yes guys like cliff droke are nothing but pump and dumpers.They write up any old beat up stock they can get for real cheap,it goes up wildly for 1 or two days and then suddenly the volume dries up and she crashes.Lets face it penny stocks are dangerous,better to stick to the well known ones.

Gandalf the White

(01/21/2003; 18:52:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95150)

CALM Down SPIKE !! You've been watching a YOYO too much !

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=1&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=38&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iIUP through $359 and then back to $358.5 !!
IS $360. going to be broken this evening ?
SURE, WHY NOT !
<;-)

Dollar Bill

(01/21/2003; 19:33:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95151)

CoBra(too)

Thank you for the qoute, but he is assuming a lot and I disagree

"The policy of the U.S. central bank is going to destroy the dollar. Confidence in the U.S. currency at some point will collapse, and you'll have a run on dollars. Money can't go to other currencies, because they have to support the dollar. Gold will act as a monetary currency - a currency without the liabilities of ill-guided central bankers"

If the other currencies have to support the dollar, then the central banks will continue to support the dollar as they are now. Those that also decide the fate of the dollar, oil countries, they look to the american military for security and who is to replace the american security?
France daydreams of building a navy, where will they get the money? Say they do, when is this navy going to be built? The guys that handle the importing and exporting of goods amongst countries, THEY are big factors in the world economy and currency choice, they wont go for gold currency.
The dollar had an inflation rate of 15% in 1979, according to the book "The Fed".
Perhaps the zurich gold guy you quoted is not considering very many factors in his analysis.

Leigh

(01/21/2003; 19:34:37 MDT - Msg ID: 95152)

Big Earthquake in Mexico City

Sierra, are you OK?

Dollar Bill

(01/21/2003; 20:04:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95153)

Is this explainable?

"If my analysis is in the right ballpark and Greenspan from now on uses the gold price to guide his monetary policy, no further significant increase in the price of gold should be expected. If demand for the U.S. dollar continues to drop, the Fed will issue treasury bonds, and if it rises, it would buy them or other government bonds. Once the U.S. dollar becomes "as good as gold," even if informally, and with the present fiscal stimulus, capital will flow to the U.S., the euro will weaken, and so will the Canadian dollar."

Reuven Brenner, a professor at McGill University's Faculty of Management, is the author of Force of Finance. He is a member of the Financial Post's Board of Economists.

Dollar Bill

(01/21/2003; 20:46:43 MDT - Msg ID: 95154)

Sinclair perspective

Excuse the multiple postings.
Sinclair said this recently, can anyone elaborate?

Greenspan, in his December 19, 2002, speech told us that there is a rescue mechanism for the US dollar when it needs to be utilized. That device is GOLD. Here and now, I want to go on record telling you that Gold is coming back into the US Dollar within five years. Its form of remonetization will be a modernized and revitalized Gold Cover Clause not tied to interest rates, as it was as in 1929 - 1930 as the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, but tied to the ability to expand M3 directly

ElGordo

(01/21/2003; 20:50:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95155)

Jump Spot Jump

Spot is playful and Spike might join the fun!
Over $360 Yeppaaa

R Powell

(01/21/2003; 20:50:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95156)

Dollar Bill

Dollars and gold As I understand the situation, the dollar is no longer "as good as gold" simply because there are way too many dollars OR there is not enough gold. In fact, the ratio isn't anywhere near equal until most dollars are withdrawn or the POG reaches well beyond the moon.
Maybe someone can provide a POG figure that would balance the "reported" gold stores with the amount of outstanding dollars. We see this number every so often. It would become outdated as soon as Town Crier reports that more fiat has been made. He reports often, consistently, reliable, almost like clockwork or the steady sounds of a printing press.
POG was up almost two bucks last time I looked, silver up only 2 cents. (:>(
Rich

Truthcaster

(01/21/2003; 20:51:02 MDT - Msg ID: 95157)

360.00 spot

Just hit 360.00 spot
Maybe tomorrow will be a good day!

ElGordo

(01/21/2003; 20:53:02 MDT - Msg ID: 95158)

Nearing 361

Houston, do you have a launch schedueld tonight?
Somebody knows something!

canamami

(01/21/2003; 20:53:14 MDT - Msg ID: 95159)

Trostel heirs....

...are probably very, very happy right now.

R Powell

(01/21/2003; 21:02:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95160)

Dollars and pennies

Now Kitco has gold up $3.00
And silver up $0.03.

I'd love to see silver above $6.00 but if she can only gain a penny for every dollar up in gold, then ...

Hey Gandalf, are the dogs getting a good well-balanced diet? Vitamin suppliments and heartworm pills? Perhaps some extra red meat? Do they have enough blankets at night in this cold weather?

Trojan

(01/21/2003; 21:07:47 MDT - Msg ID: 95161)

TownCrier #95125 The Spike Over $360 Spot

Is it possible that the 16 Billion put in today has anything to do with SPIKE and SPOT ?

Just wondering ?

Thanks for any thoughts on this subject.

sector

(01/21/2003; 21:36:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95162)

@Black Blade and Dollar Bill On the Fed and the "Gold Standard"

There are many ways for the Fed to profitFirst, one should appreciate that a gold standard doesn't necessarily mean a fixed gold price.

Indeed, we have had a defacto gold standard with a kind of fixed-price since 1996. It was implemented as a controlled gold price that was turned from an up-trend in June 1996 into a down trend until early 2001. A low general price benefit plus a windfall in capital gains taxation flowed to Washington.

The sale of 16,000 tonnes of central bank gold was all it took. Never mind the pent-up macroeconomic consequences of a rigged metals market, which has masked rampant inflation, extended the life of an already too old dollar and sets the stage for massive social unrest when the population catches on.

The Fed, however, isn't stupid. They and their ant-like economists know from history and the G-10 Bank for International Settlements golf forward and swap accounts, that a primary up-trend in gold cannot be stopped TWICE. So they are steering the gold bull higher with a gold fuel gauge running on empty.

They should also know that they might profit as a paper-generating machine from a rising gold price. Thus, they plan the dollar/yen devaluation and talk nostalgically of "Gold Standards".

They are going to make money on the gold rocket.

Trojan

(01/21/2003; 21:37:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95163)

Barrick Shareholders, Not A Good Article

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/fekete012303.htmlI just read this excellent piece by Fekete.

If you haven't read it as yet you will find it quite informative and interesting.

The point about Farmers and the sale of wheat and the One Year forward sales rule should be set for Gold also. How come it is not ?

Cavan Man

(01/21/2003; 21:43:23 MDT - Msg ID: 95164)

Hey sector......

Help I'm trapped in a Hampton INN in DFW and I can't find a bar. Seriously.....thank for your "heart".

otish mountain

(01/21/2003; 21:47:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95165)

@GoldnSilver & ElGordo

If I may comment on some remarks concerning the Vancouver Stock Exchange.

You're painting the VSE with a very broad brush, like if its the only exchange that has ever had stock scams. Vancouver is head office for many sucessful Jr. & Sr. miners and may be the venture raising capital of the world for the mining industry for precious and base metals. Its called free enterprise and yes risks are higher but the rewards can be greater as well. The "well known" miners depend on the Jrs. and the explorers for supplies of new reserves. They serve each other.

This isn't the 60's anymore, we've got this internet tool for due diligence. We are impowered. Then attend a 'gold conference' and talk to 80-120 miners with their staff, promoters, geologists, and associated brokers. Pure capitalism. (I hope thats still politically correct).

The VSE doesn't exist anymore, a few years back it joined with the Alberta Stock Exchange to form the Venture Exchange. As well Bre-x traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

sector

(01/21/2003; 21:53:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95166)

@CavenMan Jeeze! A Hampton Inn

There's Not Even a chin-up bar in those thingsAnd the doughnuts are as hard as bagels.

What a trouper!

Black Blade

(01/21/2003; 22:18:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95167)

Gold Trending Up

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
The upward trend on the gold chart looks good. What a surprise when I returned from the gym to click on the net and see gold knocking on $360. With the USD in position to go sub 100 and US dollar investments going south it should get very interesting. I suspect once the USD 100 barrier is pierced we should see gold move solidly above $360 and perhaps set a new floor if it can hold for a couple of NY trading sessions. The Japanese could be the fly in the ointment if the MOF decides to go all out and prop up the dollar. It will fail of course as it has previously but the Japanese economy is on the ropes, the banking sector is insolvent, and the government will be grasping at straws instead of biting the bullet and undertake much needed reforms. It looks like I will have my work cut out for me as I do some research on the markets tonight. Maybe James Turk's "Fear Index" is about to be tested.

El Gordo � I haven't looked into the Venezuelan proposal yet, however, if Jimmy Carter's only proposal is to have elections in August that won't likely end the strike. There has to be more to it than that. This proposal has already been floated by Chavez as per his claims about the Constitution only allows a new election in August at the earliest (a constitution that he changed after closing down the Legislature). The strikers want elections now and besides they just don't trust Chavez as they fear he will renege on any promises and they view him as one with aspirations to be the next Fidel Castro. It also appears that the Tanker Pilots who were supposedly ending their strike are 11 pilots in one limited body of water and the opposition leaders were last reported to be on their way to discuss the strike situation with them. When this was reported earlier today the price of oil fell but recovered late in the session when it was realized that that this was really not a widespread end to the strike. Another point is that much of the damage done to the fields, pipelines, etc. (not to mention a recent refinery fire caused by inexperienced replacement workers) will take several months to repair. Many oil wells may never be recovered after having been shutdown. It should be interesting to see if anything develops or if the situation deteriorates. It could get very ugly and even result in civil war. In the meantime record low US oil inventories are shrinking and will add more pressure to the US (global) economy.

Black Blade

(01/21/2003; 22:31:54 MDT - Msg ID: 95168)

Market Wrap Up - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm
Jim Puplava has a good read on the Wall Street "shell game" and the phoney measures used. It does demonstrate that the US economy is looking rather sick while the the primates play silly games trying to decieve the gullible investors.

- Black Blade

Gandalf the White

(01/21/2003; 22:38:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95169)

WAY ta GO, SPOT and SPIKE !! OVER $360 and now a rest !

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=1&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=38&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iIHold the LINE at near $360 tonight and TOMORROW in NY get ready for the PAPER AVALANCHE --- THEN you can BITE 'em !!
"TO THE MOON, Alice !"
<;-)

Buena Fe

(01/21/2003; 22:39:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95170)

GoldnSilver & ElGordo & VSE RAMBLES

having invested through the Canadian junior markets (vse-ase-cdnx-now tsx.v) for over twenty years i consider them to be the best run "venture" exchanges in the world. (not perfect), compared to the otc:bb ... infact there is no comparison imho. from order management (full order book disclosure and time/price integrity/equality) to mostly reasonable survielance, they're a ten in my book.

i've met some of the best people in Vancouver and some of the worst! the only difference between the crooks in Vancouver and the crooks in New York or London or Tokyo is the size of their cheque books! Enron vs Bre-x pick your flavor of cod-liver oil. (i believe that bre-x would never have gotten as far as it did HAD it traded on the VSE!, TSE got "randy" for the great action and invited them off the ASE if i remember correctly)

AALLLLLLLLLLL investing is risky and i wish all exchanges would promote that more openly, i think governments selling savings bonds with ads showing parents holding babies saving for their childs future is an atrocity if you've done your history lesson and realise that the state/soveriegn has been the absolute worst creditor throughout mans feeble existance.

i love this developing gold market because it is becoming the "GREAT EQUALIZER", remember ... all men must change their underwear, (its my way of saying that all people are equal under God, or gold for that matter, ha ha) bush and saddam too.

looks like "the greenspan" is almost over. pharoah of texas is repeating the same mistake, i know you're all watching for the unexpected, how bout the collapsing of and empire?

how'd i get this far down this rabbit trail?

love you all on the "TRAIL"!

back to work

physicalman

(01/21/2003; 22:42:43 MDT - Msg ID: 95171)

silver

Hi again everyone. Sorry i did not post the silver figures i promised Sunday night. Two sick parents and 14 hour shifts caught up with me.
There was a post, i believe Last Thursday that stated the US Mint has coined 1 billion oz. of ag over the years and i thought the figure was low. I had added up US Mint silver usage for coin production back in 2000 and put it on a disc so here it is
There are no totals before 1857 added into the totals becuase coins from before had a higher percentage of silver and many were melted and/or ended up overseas. Also the grand total will not include proofs,early comm.,modern comm., or the new silver American Eagles (was on another disc and cannot find it yet)
3 cent silver---150,150 oz.
half dimes---1,072,500 oz.
war nickels---41,608,004 oz.
early 10 cent(1857-1891)---13,767,325 oz.
barber, mercury dimes---227,684,975.5 oz.
roosevelt dimes---467,996,100 oz.
20 cent pieces---193,742 oz.
early 25 cent(1857-1891)---18,591,903 oz.
barber quarters---47,313,992.5 oz.
s.l quarters---40,534,243.75 oz.
washington 25 cents---679,244,458.75 oz. (1932-1964)
early half dollar---33,669,115.5 oz (1857-1891)
barber 50 cents---48,617,140 oz.
w.l. halves---173,530,500 oz.
franklin halves---172,214,900 oz.
1964 kennedy halves---154,976,250 oz.
ken. clad halves---126,918,880 oz. (1965-1970)
seated and trade dollars---30,916,390.5 oz.
morgan dollars---464,085,765 oz.
peace dollars---116,966,135 oz.
total---2,860,052,466.5 oz.
Now we have to deduct about 150 million oz. ag. of Morgan dollars that were ordered melted down due to the Pittman Act of 1916 and if you add in the commemoratives, all proofs since 1857, earlier silver before 1857 (figure about a third of it still exists) and the Eagle coins total will be about 3 billion oz. of ag. has been used by the US since 1792 for coinage
Where am i going with this is that of all the silver mined in history (40.5 billion oz.) US alone used 7.4% of that for our circulating coinage, (used 55% of that total from WWII on) Here are some guesses as to whats left:
Lost change 1%
wear 5-7%
recent coins melted 1976- 1980 60%
m,p dollars melted in 1976-1980 7%?
A lot of the rounds and smaller bars we hold now are from this melting period. Also since then a lot of collectors coins are spread in many more hands. Those of use holding any position above hobby status are probably 1/10 of 1%. The vast majority of melted coins and jewelry, antiques went into larger bars and that along with what Central Bankers/governments held is what has been supplying the deficit for the last 12 years.
What a rich country we once were,think of it! 7.5% of all the silver ever mined was our lower denominated coinage! At the end of WWII we held 1/3 of all the gold ever mined in history in our Central bank reserves plus what was not turned in by the citizens in 1933 (which i think was substantial when you look at the quantity of nice early gold that is available). What has happened to us? Where did it all go? Our govt. and most of its citizens over time have traded our future and security for cheap oil and the right to kick back and take it easy for a couple of generations. What has it got us, i'll tell you what 36 trillion in debts, no jobs and an increasingly hostile planet for when we quit giving them the shiny yellow and handed them green pine potato chips with no.s on them over 30 years they have started to find out that the race horse is a swayback old, wore out plow horse.
I'll tell you folks that i have been a dealer before and there is no way that i would sell any physical now (i see nothing but upside potential) Our fine hosts here are MarketMakers working on a tight ratio. They buy and sell in all markets (up or down) and we must be loyal in our support of them. If we don't have confiscation and/or anarchy and the price levels go to the heights that we hope these guys will be here to buy as well as sell as we all have dreams of a little more comfort if possible from our investments. Also remember that if things go badly that we must not forget our bretheren for they will need our help as never before and finally take heed of BlackBlades closing comments on most of his posts as they ring so true in being ready for all situations

Trapper

(01/21/2003; 22:44:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95172)

@ Leigh

Thanks for the heads up on the Silverado Mine story...just put in my sell order. I hated to as I made some real cash on that one. In the up coming rush stocks like that go up to 10 baggers and more...oh well at least I didn't lose all my investment. Thanks again for keeping us informed, "live small".
RJ

A Canadian

(01/21/2003; 23:10:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95173)

SILVERADO SHENANIGANS

Moral of the story: Have FUN with gold stocks, protect your LIFE with physical.

Mr Gresham

(01/21/2003; 23:32:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95174)

physicalman: Wow!

All that info -- and comment. Thanks! Really puttin' it out there!

Echo your thoughts about our host. When PMs take off, the market will crowd with "dealers". (Every corner bank and pawn shop will become a "market-maker".) It is during these thankless times, "before the Gold Rush", that true mettle shows itself.

They are sticking their necks out -- and taking risks -- for our ultimate benefit. And -- politics being what it is -- there will be many trying to horn in on the profits when it is these worthy folks who should be getting a lion's share.

I am sorry for my pessimism, but I fear MK's noble efforts may one day have to go into the "no good deed goes unpunished" storybook, and we all will be left with "once we knew a shining spot..." I hope, for fairness' sake, that they reap many fine rewards now, after persevering through 20 years in the wilderness.

ElGordo

(01/21/2003; 23:46:02 MDT - Msg ID: 95175)

Energy supplies tight world-wide

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&box=ad_box_all2&tag=energy∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APi4ayBSxSmFwYW4gInventories of kerosene, used as a heating fuel in homes, fell 4.3 percent last week from the week before while stockpiles of C-grade fuel oil, used to run oil-fired power plants, fell 1.2 percent.
----
On Jan. 15, temperatures in Tokyo dropped to 3.9 degrees Celsius while temperatures in Osaka, Japan's second-largest business center, fell to 2.9 degrees Celsius driving up demand for kerosene and gas, competing fuels for heating homes and offices.

Demand for C-grade fuel oil has surged since September after Tokyo Electric Power Co. shut nuclear reactors and started oil- fired plants, after admitting it doctored nuclear safety documents for a decade.
______________
BB: Japan and Europe should also be drawing down stocks with
cold weather. Tomorrow the pilots in Venezuela will vote on
going back to work I read. Oil flows will not be back to normal
for quite a while in any case. The drama unfolds.

Black Blade

(01/22/2003; 00:19:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95176)

The U.S. Energy Crisis, An Urgent Request for Action

http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=NR200301211680.2_e6300027e55c8094
Snippit:

WASHINGTON, Jan. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- The Industrial Energy Consumers of America (IECA) and thirty one diverse organizations has sent the following letter to Congress, key Administration officials and state Governors urging them to take action to stem the national energy crisis. The high cost of natural gas is having a devastating impact on manufacturing competitiveness and jobs. U.S. natural gas production has been stagnant since 1995 even though we have an abundant resource base and prices that is double their historical base:

The manufacturing sector has lost 2 million jobs since 1998 and energy costs are a major contributing factor. It is vital that Congress act quickly to stem the national energy crisis by enacting legislation that provides a robust, diverse and affordable supply of energy. It is particularly critical that Congress and the states act to increase supply of natural gas; and address regulations, such as New Source Review, in a manner that makes it easier for power generators to meet air quality standards without switching from coal to natural gas. Congress must also expedite commercialization of clean coal technology, the ultimate solution for power generation using coal in an environmentally acceptable manner.

Black Blade: Higher energy costs directly impact corporate earnings and consumer spending power. During the 2000-2001 drilling season over 1100 drill rigs were in operation with a net gain of 2% NatGas production. The warmer than normal winter temperatures and economic recession reduced demand enough to build up supply in the 2001-2002 season, however, since then reduced drilling activity and increased demand (weather related) ensure much higher prices for this year and next. Even if all available rigs are pressed into service we are unlikely to meet demand. As stated in the article economic recessions follow energy crises and this new energy crisis looks to dwarf the last one. Matt Simmons of Simmons & Co. Intl. warned that the US needed a "Marshall Plan" for energy a couple of years ago and now with the "Energy Policy" hung up in Congress and financial lending restraints in the energy industry post Enron, that means no increase in production for the foreseeable future. Those in the industry that I have talked to said that under the circumstances (high costs, limited access to public lands, litigation over the California energy crisis, etc.) they are content to sit on their hands and let the market place force the issue with higher sustainable prices. I and others have warned of this over the last few years and with more urgency in the last couple of years. "Double Dip Recession"? No, try devastating economic calamity. Be sure you have yourselves well positioned with a solid portfolio anchored with precious metals for insurance.

Mr Gresham

(01/22/2003; 00:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 95177)

360

OK, ducking further evening work, the idea occurred to me to collect A/FOA's references to "360". This first batch is just from Another's pages; I'll go look at the Trail next.

(Page 2)
Date: Sun Dec 07 1997 18:45
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

Unlike the past, this market has an end. And this end will not be for those who have waited to buy! They see this bottom at $100 or $200 or $250, and they will buy at the turn as no fool should have held from $360! But, I say they will buy only paper if lucky!

All should make ready and be holding metal only, as the turn will move $100+ the first day and $200 the second day as comex is closed! It will trade no more from the 3rd day on! The gold market of your youth will be no more! For those who were smart from experience not to buy at $400, will look at $600 as "the deal of a lifetime".

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 19:57
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

Oil will not accept the position, as is. Gold must come back into range as oil falls no further. Any loss of perceived control by the CBs will trigger a bid by oil. It would be better for time to pass and allow a natural change to the new oil currency ( perhaps 1 1/2 years ) . However, it is now my view that the CBs have lost control! I expect a break above $360 to create an allout run to infinity, before year end. Physical gold should be purchased for a lifetime holding, not a trade.

Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 22:35
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253

The large gold backing for the Euro and the "much greater" gold reserves for the individual countries of the Euro, is a direct result from observations of gold buying by oil! If it is well known by the BIS that a move by oil to bring crude to $10.00 US, is a precursor to an "new world oil currency", then it is well known to the Euro makers! Gold will be managed back to a range of $320/$360 with much hope for participation of Euro as "the" "currency/gold" payment for oil. My knowledge is that the new range will bring a breakup to the London operation, with the ensuing run by gold to infinity. We will watch this, together, yes? I offer my past thought:

Date: Tue Mar 31 1998 08:32
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

Gold in $320 to $360, will be a time of much concern for any and all US dollar and US dollar asset holders. At some point, oil may say "yes" to the EURO, even before it is official, and gold will break to into the thousands with no hold back by CBs. Oil prices in US dollars will explode, even as prices plunge for Euro based currencies, and the US economy will implode. The world US dollar based economy is about to change, and America will find "no point" for warships in the Gulf. I ask you now, "who will defend Arabia"?

Many metal traders see gold as "a lost value from the past" and "a poor investment for simple persons"! I say, these traders have no experience with this new market of gold, as it is as "none before"! Many will find this "asset" was "worth the time of waiting".

Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 19:18
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

You see, "physical gold is of much greater value than public traders can move it for"! In your world, this cannot be, but it is, and will show for all to see in your time.

Gold is now being managed back to the $320 - $360 range. But, this few dollars of value is of little use, as forces are at work that will break $360! The CBs are loosing control. I write again in hour or so. We talk then, please.

Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 00:43
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

BillD ( @ANOTHER ) ID#261269:
When would you expect these events to start moving the price of gold upwards?

Mr. BillD,
When the Cbs lose control. $360? Perhaps?

Date: Sun Apr 26 1998 00:39
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253

If the Euro wins, the Gold Wars will begin at $360, and crude in US$ could be in the hundreds?

This "new gold war", it will be as "none before". The BIS will bring gold into the $320 to $360 range for the Euro. The US will attack the Euro for what it has become, "a new world oil currency" offered to remove the oil backing from the US$. At first, the dollar will be partially sold by many Cbs, especially the ones with little local oil, Japan, Yes? As unneeded dollars are set free, the true value of real things will be seen in dollar terms, gold, cars, oil, etc.. In this light, one can see why many large buyers have been taking in gold, as it is held in terms of value of "after the war". Not the traded price of today.

Sir;
Your life passes, thoughts change and a persons perception of value does mature. The world, today does also mature! You will find a new financial future, in a value from the past. The world will embrace gold as "a better inheritance for our children" for it has now become a "lifetime holding". It is "the human nature" to be social, and many will not see this "new future" until it "has use from others".

"it is the way of people, some are part of the future, as they become the history of the past"

Date: Tue Apr 28 1998 16:59
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253

ALL:
I see the USAGOLD company has found the EURO important! One does ask, what will this currency look like? It is very clear, yes? See my Date: "Sat Apr 25 1998 22:55 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:", and look to the BONN report! There the Germany does offer one answer. If they do "transfer" their reserves portion in gold, and Germany does make up one third of the reserves, then the Euro will have 30%+ gold backing by nature of Germany alone!

Also, Italy has shown the market of gold will be brought to $360 by nature of it's marking to this level. They state this publicly! They also ask for 30%+, publicly!

Date: Tue Apr 28 1998 20:41
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

Much is happening now and time does not wait. I hope to return before the changes , as a move above $360 will show the world that oil has moved for the Euro currency. We will know soon!

page 4
5/3/98 Friend of ANOTHER

As gold is allowed to drift upward to the $320/$360 area, the real gold wars will begin where they left off in the early 80s. The paper gold market is still controlled by London, and we will see tremendous paper spikes up and down as this monster is killed!

5/27/98 Friend of ANOTHER

Now the BIS just stops supporting the London market with Central Bank gold loans and sales. By the time for the Euro to debut , gold starts to rise through the $360 area, there by breaking the entire dollar based paper gold market! Every oil state, and anyone else that is holding paper gold, will try to first exchange it for physical. After that guess who will be waiting with a brand new hard world reserve currency, ready made for converting dollar gold loans into Euro gold loans!

6/4/98 ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!)

Yes, the Central Banks now look for $360. But in time, "that too will pass as swift clouds on a moon less night"

7/19/98 ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!)

More to the purpose of maintaining the world economy, the BIS will now begin this act in concert with other CBs to devalue the dollar against gold! They have begun this already, by writing Euro notes for future delivery against these contracts. With LBMA trading 1,000 ton a month, there is much realignment to be done during the next year. I expect gold to cross $360 soon, as the floor is now established with billions of homeless dollars. Time grows short as the plan has been laid out with "no turnback". The ECB has said openly, "gold is now MONEY"! And this will change the dollar asset world you live in!

8/19/98 ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!)

Canada does continue to sell, however they lust not for the Euro! Perhaps the American dollar will change this thinking! Poland, the BIS did deliver them more gold for the future of their children. We watch, as the BIS does continue to buy gold under $360, for it's account, as they fill Central Banks with a new world currency reserve. Countries that now begin to think in Euro terms, find the dollar gold as "the good exchange rate" for joining the Euro Group in future! From spring of this year, this demand, makes gold be above $280? The ECB says, "this gold has been sold in dollar terms but has yet to replace the dollar reserves."

9/3/98 ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!)

ANOTHER: Mr. Steve, If you read my letters for today, I think this question is answered. Also, this new gold market is "ongoing" and "changing". The potential exists for the return of gold as the "only" reserve currency. This may result from a failure of the Euro, due to a massive upheaval. Oil states, they have the ability to force this outcome. During this result, all paper will burn and the world economy will start over. However, the BIS is buying gold for customer governments as they begin to lower the dollar. This action, began some months ago will bring gold up, perhaps to the middle $360 range. If the world paper markets do not destroy themselves, gold stocks may rise for a time. But, physical gold is the good hold for this time.

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 00:25:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95178)

Carter plan for Venezuela

Jimmy Carter's Chavez solution

Duncan Campbell in Los Angeles
Wednesday January 22, 2003
The Guardian

Former President Jimmy Carter has proposed as a solution to the crisis in Venezuela a binding referendum on Hugo Chavez's presidency and a shortened presidential term, in exchange for his opponents ending their strike, which has now lasted 52 days.

On Friday the foreign ministers of the newly formed Friends of Venezuela group - the US, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Spain and Portugal - meet in Washington to make another attempt to break the deadlock.

The dispute brought another death on Monday: a man was shot dead and 15 others were injured when the president's supporters and opponents clashed in Charallave, 20 miles from the capital Caracas.

The former president's Carter Centre has been assisting the negotiations in Venezuela for some weeks. Mr Carter's arrival in the country earlier this week was seen as a sign that a compromise might be within reach.

He proposes a referendum in August which would end Mr Chavez's presidency if it went against him. Mr Chavez has always said that he was prepared to submit to a referendum, which is allowed by the constitution.

His opponents say the country cannot wait that long and have been pressing for a vote on February 3.

The other part of the Carter plan is to shorten the presidential term from six years to four. Mr Chavez, three years in office, has said he would accept that if the electorate and congress agreed.

Before leaving Venezuela Mr Carter was hopeful about the reception his plan has received. "My opinion is that both sides want to end an impasse that is destroying the economy," he said.

Mr Gresham

(01/22/2003; 00:28:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95179)

360s from FOA

FOA (3/10/2001; 20:58:11MT - usagold.com msg#61)
On the road!
Hello everyone!

Just as in 71, this modern fiat gold market will be disconnected from the real gold market. Back then the dollar remained at $42 / ounce +/- as a somewhat free physical market exploded into the hundreds. Today, considering the magnitude of the mismatch we have attained, the paper market will probably never pass $360, even in the worst possible short crush. The dollar forces will call $360 the right level just as they called $42 correct??? All the while physical gold will slowly gravitate completely away from any connection to the real demands for delivery.

Even such a rise toward $360 would occur only after the BBs decided not to sell into the paper market any further. It all depends on how the rules are changed later. We shall see.

G: Well, that's all I found...

Gandalf the White

(01/22/2003; 00:38:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95180)

THANKS Mr. G !!!!

THANKS for the leg-work !
INTERESTING !
<;-)

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 01:09:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95182)

Mizuho has $433 Billion in bad loans

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/21/business/21CND_YEN.html?ex=1043816400&en=759ca84a53ccc031&ei=5062∂ner=GOOGLETOKYO, Jan. 21 � Mizuho Holdings Inc., the world's largest bank by assets, expects to book the biggest loss in Japanese corporate history as it struggles to cope with the government's cleanup of the nation's troubled financial industry.

The projected loss, which is nearly nine times larger than initially forecast, comes as financial regulators try to come up with a more accurate reckoning of the bank's balance sheets. That includes more strictly evaluating how the bank accounts for its bad loans, which have ballooned to 52 trillion yen ($433 billion).
_____________
Buddy can you spare a trillion yen?

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 01:14:37 MDT - Msg ID: 95183)

How many BTU's in a greenback?

(01-21) 16:52 PST WASHINGTON (AP) --

The Senate voted overwhelmingly Tuesday to provide an extra $300 million this year for home-heating aid for the poor, bringing to almost $2 billion the amount the government would spend on the program.

The 88-4 vote came as senators spent a fourth day debating a $390 billion package to finance the entire government except for the Pentagon. The military's budget was enacted separately last October.

Under Congress' budget accounting rules, the added home-heating spending would not boost the bill's price tag. That is because the amendment requires President Bush to spend $300 million in emergency funds, which Congress provided two years ago but he has yet to release.

Even so, the vote -- on a day in which snow and freezing temperatures buffeted the Capitol -- highlighted a rift over the heating aid between the White House and many lawmakers of both parties. Bush proposed spending $1.4 billion for the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program this year, but the GOP-written bill provided $1.7 billion even before Tuesday's amendment was approved.

The extra money will "at least keep people from freezing in a very difficult time," said Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., who sponsored the amendment with Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and others.

slingshot

(01/22/2003; 01:37:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95184)

Siege Engine

Golds AscensionEight days passed and the story had completely circulated among the settled countryside. Bonfir arrived at the castle with the provisions and persons requested by Stephen the Great. Gandalf looked down into the courtyard to see Bonfir.
His eyes grew stern at the appearance of Draco and Smaug. Before he would leave the window,Gandalf, would see more cannon enter the castle. Stephen greeted Bonfir and Gandalf made his way to the courtyard.

In the stables Sir Slingshot was saddling a horse when he was startled by Sir Rock. Where may you be off to Sir Slingshot? Glancing back over his sholder, North Sir Rock to have a look. I have heard many stories and I think its time I would see for myself. You know of the scouts and the weather is turning colder, Said Sir Rock.
I will be fine. I will take my two friends with me. Slingshot whistled and two large canines apppeared from the shadows. Meet Sadie and Wally,Sir Rock. He took a step back for the dogs had made no sound and watch him closely.
I have raised them from pups and I trust them as they trust me. Well'said Sir Rock,I find you in good company. Still Sir Slingshot be careful. Slingshot mounted his horse after putting blankets and provisions in the saddle bags and exited the stable. He saw Bonfir and Gandalf as he rode in the courtyard. Then he noticed the cannon. He counted twelve.Behind them the flags of unknown nations described by Sir MK. Slingshot passes through the arch of the main gate.

In the couryard Gandalf greets Bonfir and catches Gandalf starring at the cannon. He dismounts his horse and stands next to Gandalf. Change, said Bonfir, Change Gandalf and for one who has lived many a lenght of mans life you have seen it often.Yes I have 'said Gandalf. But is this one necessary? Et tu pax,Et tu parabellum, said Bonfir. They stood together in silence.

A group of Knights have lifted the flags from their holders and walked to door leading to the council chamber. Much would be discussed and learned. The Goldbugs have had a few days rest. Their judgement will be clear and steady. Fresh candles and oil for the lamps to break the darkness of night.
A few days passed and Slingshot followed the ruts in the road. Although there was no snow,the ground was frozen. The nights clear with millions of stars. One night he was awaken by Wally straddling him as Sadie licked his face. Rising up Slingshot could see the Northern Lights as they danced across the sky. Brilliant color to behold. Calming his companions they watch the sky before going back to sleep.
The next day he would see noone.The last of the travelers were long gone.The road cut through an orchard. Trees on both sides and he was about to make camp after the days journey when he saw a wagon. The wagon was there for sometime with a broken axle. Empty boxes lay on the ground. Arrows were embedded in the trees. Ruts from other wagons behind made their way around the foresaken one. Opportunity presented itself to the attacker. Give up one to save he rest. All that remained was a little gold dust in the bottom of a broken lock box. Slingshot wondered. How much gold and by whom? He pulled the wagon on its side with his horse, to use as a windbreak. A small fire perhaps. The change of the wind foretold of a large army was very near. The smell of smoke filled the air. It would be a two dog night.
The morning was bright and crisp. No smell of smoke. Slingshot packed up and again moved north only deciding to take an off trail which wound its way up a small mountain. Hoping to see what may be ahead. It was not long that he had left the road that scouts had rode pass him. Green flag with cresent moon and crossed swords.
Whew! he said and waited for them to go further down the road.
Reaching a high point Slingshot could see a large plain with mountains in the distance. He knew the King with No Name lay somewhere at their base. On the plain two armies were in battle. Like red and Black ants they moved across to ground. They were men, not insects. He thought how peculiar as both fought. Each alone would have a hard time to defeat the King. Uniting would be the logical thing to do.
Not paying attention to Sadie and Wally who were on alert,Slingshot heard the sound of horses. No time or nowhere to hide he drew his sword.

Who could this be on the TRAIL?

Belgian

(01/22/2003; 01:40:04 MDT - Msg ID: 95185)

@ Gresham

Thanks Sir, for having brought forward, our honorable mentor's, deep, thoughts and brilliant insights.

Allow me to add something on the mining-business : The dollar-price that mines get for their underground, remains the same...but with their strengthening currencies, their mining-costs do increase...and profits decline !

All : Germany rules out war support !!!

Remember the Bundesbank short positions...paper gold...underground gold for underground oil (futures)...euro for oil...Maybe, strongly interconnected or simple co-incidence ??? :-)

Black Blade

(01/22/2003; 01:48:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95186)

Gold's Luster Continues to Impress

http://www.investorcanada.com/interview.php?contentID=1255
Snippit:

The price of gold continues to sparkle and it's the debasement of the US dollar and the deficit of gold coming out the ground that is going to continue to push the sparkling commodity higher says Royal Bank Financial Group Vice President & Portfolio Manager John Embry.

Highlights:

At one point, increases in the price of gold was news driven due to fears of a possible war in Iraq.

Currently, increases in the price of gold is largely in part because of the debasement of the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. has been aggressive about monetary printing in response to the threat of deflation which will be a major factor in pushing the price of gold higher.

There is a deficit of gold coming out of the ground.

This is a positive picture for gold, Embry hasn't seen anything look this good since the early 70s.

A report by Gold Fields Minerals Services in London says that the higher price of gold was a result of speculation that a stronger demand from individuals will be needed to keep the price up.

Embry says Gold Fields Mineral Services works for the bullion bank and he dismisses most of the things they say.

We will see investment demand from individuals, but not necessarily from the United States or Canada; it will be from the Far and Middle East.

Embry wouldn't be surprised if the US dollar dropped even further, from a fundamental perspective it looks overpriced.

We could see low production levels for the next two to three years because exploration has been overlooked due to a rough gold period from 1996-2001.

Black Blade: Gee, where have we heard this before? Audio interview: Anyway he discusses mining issues too but he states the case for a stronger run in the price of gold.

Black Blade

(01/22/2003; 02:17:08 MDT - Msg ID: 95187)

Rah-rah CNBC had the suckers going for a ride

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=18471660
Snippit:

THERE IS NO doubt in my mind that we fools who have religiously watched CBNC over the past three years have lost money in the stock market. My proof comes from the network's ratings. When the Nasdaq zoomed to astronomical highs, CNBC's viewership soared as well. Now, with the Nasdaq in free-fall, we remorseful investors click off the tube. The network of promise has become the network of pain.

Back during the tech boom, we usually sober and circumspect investors were snookered by CNBC's happy-faced anchors and climbing green ticker tape set to a background of pulsing music. At the dawn of 2000, CNBC was suddenly everywhere. It became the wallpaper network. The familiar gang of personality-plus anchors appeared in offices, kitchens, barrooms, liquor stores and even gas stations. Elevators and gyms were lit up by the dancing ticker tape under those ebullient faces.

Just a year ago, in powerhouse urban centers, sophisticated dinner conversation actually focused on how in the world Joe Kernen's tousled hair and lopsided grin got him a Playboy layout. (In case you don't recognize the name, he's CNBC's wiseacre stock specialist who looks like he's falling off his chair.) Intelligent career women debated whether or not Sue Herera wore too much makeup and speculated as to which Wall Street mogul Maria Bartiromo, the Sophia Loren lookalike, had married. And no one can deny that the boyish charm of Bill Griffeth is infectious, while the broad-shouldered Ted David relates his diet woes in an amusing manner. What we have here is a colorful cast of television characters with distinctive personalities and entertaining cross chat. What we don't have is a group of serious business journalists. OK, save maybe Ron Insana with his skeptical and quizzical asides, but overall, as a group, we are talking about a parade of bubbleheaded television readers.

The BUY-BUY-BUY mantra of these guest analysts spouted on CNBC would be humorous if we investors hadn't lost so much money. Checking the stats, one now realizes that 98 percent of all stocks mentioned were BUYS with a paltry 2 percent SELLS. What's even more amazing is that, even now the Nasdaq scraping bottom, these charlatan magpies are still crowing BUY, this time on Value stocks, many of which have already hit new 52 week highs!

Black Blade: Oh how I wish I could find the original article. This one is a masterpiece! A must read! A Classic! I wager that most crushed investors feel the same about the "Infomercial" disguised as serious financial journalism. Even now several years later I still long for CNBC's predecessor FNN. Talk about de-evolution! There is a certain humor in this article � perhaps more in how it's presented. It is an interesting read and one that many investors can identify with. As I said � I wish I could find the original to verify the source, however, it has been preserved at the link above.

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 02:26:14 MDT - Msg ID: 95188)

New trend in guidance-NO GUIDANCE lol

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9C1C962B%2D39B1%2D4494%2DB574%2D912FAFA471E3%7D&siteid=mktwThen again, shareholders are clamoring for all the information they can get about public companies, and executives who say they wont' give financial targets are giving less.

Companies that recently dropped quarterly targets have a new financial loophole at their disposal: Give Wall Street a few hints that business might be improving, and tell shareholders that sales will take off once the economy turns around. Meanwhile, tell everyone you're just too uncertain about the short-term to give earnings targets. Hey, you can't be held to goals you never set for yourself, right?

Dropping all guidance seems to me to be a tantrum-like response by overpaid executives who are finding it too difficult to play by the SEC's new rules while placating their shareholders.

There are no financial tricks left in the bag: The SEC even published rules last week that dictate when and how pro forma earnings can be used.

The only trick left is if executives say absolutely nothing to Wall Street before the quarter. That way, no matter how bad the earnings are, they can remind shareholders that their company beat internal expectations (wink, wink). Oh, and then they can remind everyone that business will go gangbusters once the economy turns around.

My fear

My fear is that this is just the start of a trend: Hundreds of companies will revert to giving no financial targets over the next year -- and that as a result, shareholders will be missing out on some useful information.

Black Blade

(01/22/2003; 03:41:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95189)

World Markets Go Negative

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
World equities markets are in negative territory. Theres a rash of earnings warnings and the dollar falls to 1.07 Euros.

- Black Blade

Topaz

(01/22/2003; 03:46:02 MDT - Msg ID: 95190)

Dollar Bill.

The Professor is in the Ballpark imo, but I think it's the Fed/Treasury driving the gold price rather than Greenie reacting to a higher PoG.
The Thorn in their side is the tight state of the physical market. Being a "giffin commodity" (I think thats the expression) the demand will only increase with the higher price, so it would appear, eventually/shortly, the Jig will be up.

silvercollector

(01/22/2003; 05:15:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95191)

*******371.90******

I believe that as the 27th approaches the Iraq issue will degenerate another leg down propelling gold up a notch.

I also believe war is inevitable. Looking out 10-20 years from now I cannot imagine the state of the U.S. without a source of cheap energy. To this end I think Mr. Bush has sealed our destiny.

Thanks.

(Good luck to all in the contest, thanks to USAGOLD and let your eggs be golden!)

Rock

(01/22/2003; 06:08:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95192)

BlackBlade CNBC's Rah Rha Team of Jokes

Great article Blade, thats what many of us have been thinking all along. God that was good!

misetich

(01/22/2003; 06:12:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95193)

Support For a War With Iraq Weakens -Majority in Poll Critical of Bush's Record on Economy

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23564-2003Jan21.htmlSnip;

Seven in 10 Americans would give U.N. weapons inspectors months more to pursue their arms search in Iraq, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll that found growing doubts about an attack on Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
In addition to the public's skepticism about military action against Iraq, the poll found that a majority of Americans disapproved of President Bush's handling of the economy for the first time in his presidency. The number of Americans who regard the economy as healthy has not been lower in the past nine years, and fewer than half supported the tax cut plan Bush has proposed as a remedy.
*********
Misetich

Geopolitical instability and uncertainty creates nervousness amongst investors -
The general public is losing confidence in its leaders - Bush, Blair -
Why the rush ask the Europeans?
It appears that Bush - Blair have a "timetable" and are saying "don't confuse us with facts, as our minds are already made up" -
What is the cost to the American economy if this "timetable" is derailed?
The rest of the world is rebelling against the world superpower overhanded methods

US economy is dependedent on cheap energy - Can the US economy withstand double or triple the current gasoline prices? What would happen freight costs, airline & tourist industry?

We know the answer -

Bush-Blair desperate "leap of faith" trying to corner energy is daring -
How will the rest of the world react? What is occurring behind the scenes?

Lets stay tuned to this geopolitical trail as gold rises once again as the ultimate investment in time of crisis

Got gold?

Clint H

(01/22/2003; 06:40:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95194)

misetich (1/22/03; 06:12:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 95193)

misetich msg#: 95193)
Support For a War With Iraq Weakens -Majority in Poll Critical of Bush's Record on Economy

misetich
When you post the results of a poll it would be helpful if the question asked is also posted. Many questions are slanted to give the "proper" answer.
Thanks for all your work on this forum over the years.

Spartacus

(01/22/2003; 08:06:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95196)

Welteke says sees no need to support dollar-paper

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/01/22/rtr854225.html
FRANKFURT, Jan 22 (Reuters) - European Central Bank council member Ernst Welteke said on Wednesday the dollar was not too weak on foreign exchange markets and needed no support.

R Powell

(01/22/2003; 08:08:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95197)

Physicalman

The information in (95171) represents quite a little work. I see both numbers there and then your opinion, nicely separated for all to evaluate.
Nice work, thanks !!
Rich

Spartacus

(01/22/2003; 08:28:03 MDT - Msg ID: 95198)

France and Germany break ranks on Iraq

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=371596
France and Gerrmany served notice yesterday that it would press other European governments to oppose American plans for war against Iraq, setting themselves on a collision course with the United States and risking a damaging clash inside the European Union with Britain.--

CoBra(too)

(01/22/2003; 08:45:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95199)

@ Spartacus

When Welteke is saying the US $ does not need support, I'll wager he's already worried about the EU's competitiveness on international export markets.

It's been speculated that the ECB won't intervene until the euro/$ ratio is back at 1.17 range, the "IPO-Price" of the euro. And then, what?

It's about time Welteke is getting to the (West-) Point and repeats his cliche of the BuBa selling more Gold reserves - there's a huge market out there, waiting for somebody to fill the physical void. Welteke can always claim, hey, I'm 30% smarter than my colleague Eddie George from the BoE. Great feeling to be ahead in the game of beggar thy neighbor, or is it just diversion, illusion or even delusion? cb2

EagleOne

(01/22/2003; 08:58:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95200)

EU Savings Tax

Out of the corner of my eye, and with the sound off, I thought I saw a banner message on the Bloomburg network stating that the EU was considering a tax on funds held in foreign savings accounts. Does any one have something more factual?

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(01/22/2003; 09:02:03 MDT - Msg ID: 95201)

@EagleOne - EU Tax

http://www.xpatsapps.com/cgi-bin/News/News.cgi?belg#9306FINANCE - Measure against tax dodging

BRUSSELS - In the future, people who invest money in European Union countries outside their own will no longer be able to dodge the tax-man. The European finance ministers have reached an agreement on the issue. The majority of European member states already supply information to other EU members on foreign accounts, but Belgium, Luxembourg and Austria do not. These countries tax foreign investors' savings themselves. The new regulation will be implemented next year.

There is one glitch in the plan. Switzerland is not an EU member, and the new system will only work if the country complies. The EU is in negotiations with Switzerland and hopes to reach an agreement by March.

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 09:04:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95202)

Energy draw down

NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas storage levels are expected to fall by about 200 billion cubic feet (bcf) when weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) data are released early Thursday, industry sources said this week.

Reuters survey of 16 industry players showed withdrawal estimates ranged from 175 bcf to 230 bcf for the week ended Jan. 17. On average over the last five years, stocks have fallen 134 bcf in this report.

Those on the high side of estimates said cold weather and high, backwardated prices were still encouraging storage holders to pick up the pace of withdrawals.

The EIA storage report will be released Thursday at about 10:30 a.m. Eastern time.

In terms of heating degree days (HDDs), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said last week's tally of 225 was 56 colder than the prior week, 16 colder than normal and 48 more than the same week last year.

Buongiorno!

(01/22/2003; 09:31:03 MDT - Msg ID: 95203)

cnbc

Hey Blade, concur with you on CNBC--suggest the following--get the cable service that has the script of what is said (originally for hearing impaired), hit the mute button and only listen when it is someone of interest and wisdom (rarely). Watch the dow bugs and see the tape without all the noise. Then toggle over to usagold and find out what is really going on! Has worked for me for years! (ESPECIALLY YOUR INPUT--THANKS!) Maria is a great lady, but I donwanna listen to all that stuff.
Cheers! BUONGIORNO!

EagleOne

(01/22/2003; 09:44:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95204)

WAC

WOW, WAC...that was fast. Thanks

EagleOne

CoBra(too)

(01/22/2003; 09:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95205)

@ WAC and Eagle One - EU Tax on Savings

- The real issue here was and is that the EU member states Austria, Belgium and Luxembourg have a pretty tight banking secrecy act - meaning that banks are forbidden by law to disclose any information on individual accounts neither for residents, nor non-residents. This bank secrecy act was already breached several times - including Switzerland - by "greenmail".
In the case of Switzerland, a non EU-Member - the former 3 countries persisted on a similar ruling - as the Swiss declare the banking secrecy sacrosanct. After all 200.000 people are directly employed in the (mis? Nah) management of other peoples money in the amount of, 3.8 Trillion SFR - 55% of that funds are of foreign origin - and this sector alone amounts to about 6% of the Swiss GNP.

The formal agreement reached in Brussels last night leaves the banking secrecy act untouched - for now - and will in steps raise the interest equivalization tax on savings to 35% EU wide, while the 35% of the total tax is staying within the country of deposit and 65% is paid back to the
country of origin.

George Orwell's "1984" was averted for another little while, though still looming I fear - cb2

Gandalf the White

(01/22/2003; 10:03:19 MDT - Msg ID: 95206)

IT IS TIME !! <;-)

OK SPIKE, Do your THING !
and you SPOT -- BITE 'em !!!
JUMP !!!
<;-)

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 10:09:44 MDT - Msg ID: 95207)

Platinum reaches $650

Look spot jump!

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 10:47:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95208)

We will take good care of your oil

U.S. Promises to Hold Iraqi Oil 'In Trust'

Wed January 22, 2003 12:33 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Secretary of State Colin Powell promised that a U.S. military occupation would hold Iraq's oilfields "in trust" for the Iraqi people.

In an interview with U.S. newspapers on Tuesday, released by the State Department on Wednesday, Powell said the Bush administration was studying different models for managing the Iraqi oil industry if the United States invades.

"If we are the occupying power, it will be held for the benefit of the Iraqi people and it will be operated for the benefit of the Iraqi people," he said.

"How will we operate it? How best to do that? We are studying different models. But the one thing I can assure you of is that it will be held in trust for the Iraqi people, to benefit the Iraqi people. That is a legal obligation that the occupying power will have," he added.

Powell said the U.S. military would not want to run Iraq for long after a possible invasion but he declined to speculate how long U.S. troops would stay in the country.

"There is no desire for the United States armed forces to remain in charge or to run a country for any length of time beyond that which is necessary to make sure that there is an appropriate form of government to take over from the initial military occupation," he said.

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 10:51:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95209)

Natural Gas up over 4%

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_NGG3&v=sCRB going higher

misetich

(01/22/2003; 11:01:59 MDT - Msg ID: 95210)

Clint H (1/22/03; 06:40:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 95194)

.................
misetich
When you post the results of a poll it would be helpful if the question asked is also posted. Many questions are slanted to give the "proper" answer.
Thanks for all your work on this forum over the years.
.............

CarlH the Washington Post article link posted did not identify the questions asked, and you are absolutely correct that "many questions are slanted to give the 'proper answer' however poll after poll shows Bush's continued deteriorating popularity - especially in the manner in which his administration has dealt with the economy

Based on the internet available media it also appears that Bush junior popularity world wide is tanking

Gold has always outperformed any other investment during time of crisis - and- this apparent loss of confidence of both political and central bankers leaders sets up the stage for some real fireworks

Got gold?

Time For GOLD

(01/22/2003; 11:17:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95211)

****371.8****

27th - Hans Blix reports to the UN / 28th Bush adresses the nation / Feb 1st New Moon - Last couple wars Iraq/Serbia the air campaign commenced during the darkest nights of the month (New Moon). Bush may announce on the 28th that US will go to war with Iraq. He is running out of time as anti-war movement is gaining momentum.

Richman

(01/22/2003; 11:18:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95212)

*****370.90*****

Lack of earnings will continue to take the economy and markets down. The one thing that continues to amaze me is the way companies continue to report results just like the good old days. All I continue to see attached to earnings statements is "Ex items" or Excluding one time charges". How many 1-time charges can companies have? I'll stick with Buffett's assesment that whether it's a 1-time charge or not, it costs the company money......so it should be reported as such.

Richman

glennh10

(01/22/2003; 11:27:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95213)

Re: R Powell - Book, "Big Silver Melt"

Check Amazon and half.com for the book. That's where I found it to buy, after having checked it out from the Los Angeles Public Library to read Fairfax Branch). It's about silver coin melters (burners). The author (Henry A. Merton)writes about the illegal, clandestine mass U.S. coin melting
during the mid-late 1960's, after the statute of limtations had passed. It reads a lot like a story with interesting sidelines, such as how they had to beef up the car's suspension to handle the weight (4000 pounds) of
the bags of coins they transported; how they nearly got busted by government agents (an agent was standing next to a bar of silver that was cooling, and still had a slightly unmelted coin visible. Silver alone was not illegal to melt - it was evidence of U.S. coin melting
specifically that the agents were after); the physical dangers involved in running the make-shift melt operations; having to be able to abandon locations and move on quickly and set up at new sites. Photos of the melt operations are included in the book. The author also describes the
government's/bank's efforts during 1967 to separate the 90% dimes and quarters remaining in circulation from the newer clad coins, returning the silver coins back to the Treasury (to be melted!). The author sorted and kept records of the dates and mintmarks of the coins he melted. Tables at the back of the book give estimated counts of maximum
coins remaining, 1934-1964 (dimes, halves) and 1932-1964 (quarters). 129 pages, including the tables and an index.

Zhisheng

(01/22/2003; 11:30:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95214)

Up into the close!

And a close near $360.

Monotonous but not boring.

Reminiscent of the old days (3 years ago) when the S&P nearly always popped up into the close.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/22/2003; 11:33:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95215)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. How does USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals position itself among its competitors with regard to credibility, reputability and pricing?

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 11:37:47 MDT - Msg ID: 95216)

CRB on a rocket

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CRY0&v=iCommodities soaring- "things" going up

Gandalf the White

(01/22/2003; 11:46:43 MDT - Msg ID: 95217)

NAW !!! Sir ElGordo --- you must be dreaming -- NO INFLATION !!!

ElGordo (1/22/03; 11:37:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 95216)
CRB on a rocket
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CRY0&v=i
Commodities soaring- "things" going up
===
That is what SIR Greenie says !
<;-)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/22/2003; 12:01:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95218)

Why should YOU buy gold? Because no one else will do it FOR you. We can help.

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

Guided

(01/22/2003; 12:01:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95219)

Polls............

Brought to you by the same people who called Florida (one of the FIRST and earliest states projected) a win for Gore on our last presidential election night.

Your patient with gold. Be patient with leaders who have golden character.

J-Bullion

(01/22/2003; 12:03:40 MDT - Msg ID: 95220)

RE: We will take good care of your oil!

Yeah, like they'll ever give it back. This is too funny. The government holding anything in trust for anyone, except themselves. I see how well they loot..........er......hold the Social Security fund for the Sheeple...er American people. They borrow against it every year, until it will be gone one day. This is really classic stuff......a military occupation that is going to go away. We now have troops/military bases in 140 out of 189 UN nations, and we are not an imperialistic power? Those troops are never leaving, and we are going to hold that oil for the Iraqi's just like we are rebuilding Afghanistan (well, we are building an oil pipeline there, and the roads/infrastructure to support it but that's it). Wow, how does anyone believe this stuff? Weapons of Mass Destruction my ass....wonder who's next??? Iran?? They've got oil. Libya?? They've got oil too. Saudi Arabia?? Well, we already have a military presence protecting our....their oil fields. Venezuela must be full of terrorists, and Colombia (we have troops there already). The forever war has started.

(01/22/2003; 12:35:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95222)

Gold Price of Shanghai Gold Exchange (Jan.22 2003)

http://www.gold.org.cn/indexe.htmclose = 97.42 (Yuan/g)(Au99.99)
At 1US$=8.2770 Yuan RMB and 1 troy ounce=31.1035 grams, this converts to 366 USD/oz (http://www.gold.org.cn/hsb2.htm)

What is the cost of sending gold from New York to Shanghai? Is the 5-6 dollar differential enough to start the physical moving?

Black Blade

(01/22/2003; 13:19:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95223)

Record Breaking Cold

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=2
The coldest air of the season will cover the eastern United States all the way through Florida Thursday night. There will likely be numerous record low temperatures set across the region by Friday morning. Temperatures may fall into the upper 30s as far south as Miami, Florida!

Black Blade: The Siberian Express � Artic Blast will make its way into the deep south tomorrow and Friday while draws on electricity, heating oil and NatGas are expected to surge. Brrr�

TownCrier

(01/22/2003; 13:23:54 MDT - Msg ID: 95224)

Odd. Fed adds another big batch of reserves ($14.5 billion) using overnight repos

http://www.usagold.com/phone.htmlFollowing yesterday's atypical one-day injection of $16 billion, with the fed funds rate still trading on target the Fed again today entered the open market to provide a followup $14.5 billion.

As I mentioned yesterday, operations of that size are not frequently seen, and coming two days in a row now makes for difficult speculation regarding the motivation. My initial hunch today was that perhaps the Fed was seriously pondering an emergency inter-meeting rate cut, and that would explain why overnight repos were being used in these operations instead of longer term RPs. But a check of the calendar reveals the next scheduled FOMC meeting is this coming Tues/Wed, so that would tend to discount the likelihood of that explanation. Maybe capital flows have simply become so volatile that the Fed and its market counterparts are less confident about addressing liquidity issues of this size with longer term arangements. The one who can really say for sure... can't. Can you think of many other currency blocs throughout the world where the situation is significantly better? Neither can I.

When uncertainty reigns, people find comfort and security in gold. Call USAGOLD-Centennial to bolster your portfolio.

R.

Black Blade

(01/22/2003; 13:48:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95225)

From The Mailbag

I occasionally get some interesting material in my mailbox and today I got a good rundown with an emphasis on gold and currencies from the DailyReckoning. The following snippit from Eric Fry:

The dollar's weakness, of course, is gold's strength. The yellow metal dipped more than $3 early in the New York trading session. But by lunchtime, gold had recovered its losses and moved into the plus column, gaining 70 cents to $357.50. Like an annoying party guest, gold just keeps hanging around. Most folks expected the precious metal to 'cut out' a long time ago. But it refuses to go away. The editors of the Daily Reckoning are long-time admirers of gold, mostly because we have no idea what the future holds. Given our macroeconomic agnosticism, gold seems a worthy hedge against the unknowable...But then along comes James Turk - decades-long gold bug and West Coast eccentric - to remove the scales from our eyes. Mr. Turk knows exactly where the gold price is going and when it will get there.

Turk announced yesterday, "The gold price will hit $934 an ounce by October of 2004." Turk's prediction is audacious, to be sure, but we wouldn't rule it out. Given the dollar's persistent weakness, the gold price could surprise even mega-bulls like Turk. What's more, the U.S. is not alone in seeking a weaker currency, and a synchronous global currency debasement could be a wonderful thing for the gold price.

U.S. Fed Governor Ben Bernanke is not the only central banker seeking to cheapen the home crowd's currency. Monetary authorities worldwide are hoping to weaken their currencies as a way of stimulating export growth.

Black Blade: Ah yes, the "Currency War". I have discussed this in the past and of course we heard of Turk's gold price predictions and time table too. Meanwhile the US dollar is under tremendous pressure and the stock market is quietly slipping into the abyss. I am curious as to how the markets in Asia and Europe will treat gold tonight. Will they see the stock market carnage amid corporate losses (amusingly touted as pro forma earnings by CNBC), pounce on the dollar as piranhas to a wounded beast, and lift the precious metals as nervous peoples the world over seek safety and capital preservation? Should be quite "entertaining".

White Rose

(01/22/2003; 13:59:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95226)

Kitco says gold is $360.10.

Kitco says gold is $360.10 bid.

Waverider

(01/22/2003; 14:02:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95227)

VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlVery Important Post...

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 14:03:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95228)

Out of the gate->down the tubes

NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters) - A weak forecast from film giant Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE:EK - News) fed fears over the corporate outlook on Wednesday and dragged blue chips toward their fifth down session, but battered telecom gear maker Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE:LU - News) gave tech stocks a glimmer of hope.

The blue-chip Dow is in danger of wiping out all its gains for the year by the closing bell as investors worry 2003 will be another tough year on Wall Street. Hopes for a speedy rebound in quarterly earnings fueled an early January rally, but tepid outlooks from corporate icons and persistent fears of a U.S. war against Iraq have reined in that optimism.

"The market got a little bit ahead of itself right out of the gates this year, and people have corrected those gains," said Andrew Baker, senior vice president of Nasdaq trading at investment bank Wedbush Morgan. "People got a little bit too optimistic in thinking that there is no way we are going to have a fourth down year."

TownCrier

(01/22/2003; 14:10:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95229)

Some gold soundbites from the news

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=26549Mumbai, January 22:
Gold prices flared up to a six-year high of $360 per troy oz levels in the international markets on Wednesday after US President George W Bush warned Iraq that time was running out to prevent war. Replicating this trend in India, the yellow metal was quoted at Rs 5,800-5,810 per 10 gm. According to Bombay Bullion Association president Suresh Hundia, this was the highest ever in India.

Since January 15, 2002, gold prices have gained a whopping 26.25 per cent in US dollar terms, while in Indian rupees, gold prices have risen 22.75 per cent.

"Gold's on a one-way street," said a source from a leading bullion bank. "It is surprising that the prices are still at current levels and have not yet crossed $365 levels," the source added.

[Mr. Hundia said] "in Japan, gold demand is huge, especially because of the zero-interest rates there. Even in the US, because of weak dollar and equities, investors have been investing more in gold."

Waverider

(01/22/2003; 14:17:09 MDT - Msg ID: 95230)

Spot 'n Spike

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html$361.50 in NY Access

TownCrier

(01/22/2003; 14:22:01 MDT - Msg ID: 95231)

Another example why you need to buy your gold BEFORE an actual crisis

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/reuters20030122_510.htmlHEADLINE: Venezuela Suspends Currency Market

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuela on Wednesday suspended foreign exchange trading in a desperate bid to stem capital flight and a slide in the bolivar as the government battled an opposition-led strike which has drained its oil-reliant economy.

The Central Bank said it would close the foreign exchange market for five trading days and prepare temporary currency exchange and transfer curbs to fend off the impact of the shutdown...

Venezuela's bolivar has tumbled more than 28 percent during the seven-week-old work stoppage and its international reserves have fallen.

Economists said foreign exchange controls would give the government some short-term breathing room, but the economy would suffer the longer the controls were maintained.

"This looks more like a knee-jerk reaction of theirs to the currency weakness," Jose Cerritelli, a Bear Stearns Andean economist, said. "But in the long term, people look to escape the controls by taking their money out."

--------(see url)------

If you don't convert your paper to real wealth (tangibles) while times are relatively good, there's no knowing what good your monetary paper positions will provide for you when a breakdown of confidence arrives and the governement intervenes moreso than usual.

Call Centennial today.

R.

Black Blade

(01/22/2003; 14:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95232)

Fourth Quarter Production Survey Shows 6 Consecutive Decline In U.S. Gas Production

http://170.12.99.3/researchpdf/iEne012103b_0738.pdf
Snippit:

We recently completed our pre-reporting fourth quarter 2002 U.S. natural gas production survey, which covers 29 of the largest natural gas producers in the United States and represents approximately 45% of total domestic production. The results suggest that U.S. natural gas production in the fourth quarter of 2002 declined another �% sequentially (for the sixth consecutive quarterly decline) and fell almost 5% on a year-over-year basis. After scrubbing the numbers as best we could to get "apple-to-apples" comparisons, the most remarkable thing about this pre-quarter production survey has been the wide disparity between different companies� year-over-year production estimates. For example, there were four companies with estimated double-digit percentage increases in YOY production while nine companies had estimated double-digit decreases in YOY production (refer to table on page 3). Given the wide disparity in guidance, historical overly optimistic guidance, and the fact that weather in the fourth quarter was terrible, it is our belief that actual reported production will end up being much lower than the production guidance presented here.

Conclusion

Based on our survey of the largest natural gas producers in the U.S., it appears that domestic natural gas production has declined for the sixth consecutive quarter. Specifically, we expect fourth quarter natural gas production to be down at least 0.6% sequentially and 4.6% on a year-to-year basis when actual volumes are reported. The results of this survey are a little surprising to us, as we thought production would have been down a little more due to weather-related production declines. However, these surveys have been known to be conservative, so it wouldn't surprise us to see a 6% or even 7% decline in U.S. gas production year-over-year. Furthermore, with drilling activity yet to increase significantly, natural gas production will likely continue its rapid deterioration for the foreseeable future.

Black Blade: The full report can be viewed at the link. I expect to see exceptionally strong draws on NatGas storage over the next two to three weeks and possibly longer depending on winter temperatures and continued lack of drilling interest. It appears that the energy crisis is likely to hit the US economy like a ton of (gold) bricks at a time the US is gearing up for war, petroleum inventories are declining, and the Venezuelan crisis deteriorates. The world is in a state of growing uncertainty (economic and geopolitical) � position yourselves accordingly with a strong portfolio insurance position (ya know what I mean � hard asset PM protection).

cyberbat

(01/22/2003; 14:39:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95233)

Gold Price

Can you say $364.00 per ounce?!!!

Clink!

(01/22/2003; 14:41:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95234)

@Gandalf with gold over $362

Do you ever get the horrible sneaking feeling that while you are happily watching something happen (in this case, the after-hours action) you have forgotten something essential, and can't put your finger on what it is ? Let me help you out - you need to buy some high-altitude breathing apparatus for Spot and Spike REAL soon !

Clink!

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 14:50:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95235)

Jumped over $363

Jump spot, chase Spike

Waverider

(01/22/2003; 14:58:55 MDT - Msg ID: 95236)

Streak

Wanna bet we see Streak flash by tonight...and she leaves TOCOM locked limit up in her wake? Could be fun again! Okay...I'll go out on a limb...how about $375.00 before the night's through...

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 15:07:44 MDT - Msg ID: 95237)

The fat lady is clearing her throat

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APi8GsBJcTWl6dWhv "If our BIS ratio comes under 8 percent, we can't do any international business," says Naoko Nakamura, a spokeswoman for Mizuho. In Japan, a bank that violates the Basel Capital Accord is also subject to what Nakamura describes as "quick corrective action" from the Financial Services Agency. In short, analysts say, the government would be forced to bail out Mizuho with taxpayers' money either by nationalizing all of the giant bank or injecting enough cash into it to shore up its capital.

``If Mizuho doesn't have enough capital to cover its bad assets, the next step would be the bank turning to the government for capital in the form of nationalization,'' says James Fiorillo, a senior banking analyst at Commerz Securities Japan Ltd. Nakamura says Mizuho will not be subject to such government action. "We will maintain our BIS capital ratio above 9 percent," she says. Maeda said Jan. 21 that the bank's plan to raise about 1 trillion yen ($8.4 billion) by March will aid in this.
-------
This time, analysts say, a swift government bailout of Mizuho may not be enough to restore confidence in the banking system. That's because the amount of Japan's bad loans has ballooned. According to David Atkinson, Japanese bank analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Japan's deposit-taking institutions hold bad loans worth a total of about $1.37 trillion -- the equivalent of one-third of Japan's gross domestic product.

The Japanese government's large outstanding borrowings -- which stood at $5.19 trillion as of September 2002, according to the Ministry of Finance -- have also constrained its ability to issue more government bonds or use taxpayers' money to bail out a leviathan like Mizuho.

According to Moody's Investors Service, in 2002 Japan's outstanding government debt was 157 percent higher than its GDP. Japan's GDP amounted to $4.24 trillion in 2001, according to the World Bank.
-------
The nightmare scenario: If Mizuho begins to totter, analysts say, it could fan the fears of depositors in other bad-loan-burdened Japanese banks, causing them to withdraw their money in a panic. There would be reverberations across global capital markets as Japanese banks tried to meet those demands.

``If Japanese depositors try to withdraw their assets en masse, Japan's banks would be forced to pull in their overseas holdings,'' says Akio Mikuni, president of credit rating agency Mikuni & Co.

Using data from Japan's Ministry of Finance, Mikuni estimates Japan's external assets, consisting primarily of U.S. stocks and bonds, currently stand at about 400 trillion yen.
__________________
This article sent shivers down my spine.
The Japanese government might not be able to bail out the
world's biggest bank. Could start a run on Japanese banks.
Then Japan might have to liquidate US Bond holdings.
Its just about here folks. I'm debating whether or not to
post this. One click....

Pizz

(01/22/2003; 15:19:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95238)

Scrambling

Gold price has been just a little too firm lately for something big not to be in the works very soon (days not weeks). The action smacks of shorts scrambling over one another, uping bids in attempts to grab what few sellers there are right now without putting in market orders that would spike the price.

Same action in some PM stocks, with a large silver producer with a secondary out there priced below market, at least it was yesterday and last week. The shorts got a get out of jail card on that one.

Another penny stock with a huge short position got some real negative press that also bailed the shorts out today.

Convenient press releases and inside information seem to be the norm, not the exception, but who said markets were free and honest anyway. (At least my physical is nice and warm and safely in my possession).

Russians say late next month for war, which means it won't be then. If Bush waits any longer, he'll have to fight an uphill battle against negative opinion. There was a bill introduced in the House to reverse Bush's authority to go to war in Iraq.

My gut tells me Bush needs a smoking gun before the arms inspector's report and his state of the union. Time and public sentiment are not in his favor right now.

The props holding up the cheap gold window are buckling under the strain, soon they will break and the window will slam shut, IMHO.

Pizz

Bulldog

(01/22/2003; 15:21:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95239)

BB Cold Weather

It is very cold east of the Rockies everywhere in N.A.
Going down to -30 C. tonight in Calgary and then up to +3
tomorrow. Thank the good Lord for Chinooks! The gas bill is going to be high.

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 15:36:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95240)

Print or Implode

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?id=1FFDF733-DB22-4D80-B35D-35922F7A4589Wanted: Aggressive and creative central banker to save world's second-largest economy from implosion. No previous experience a bonus. Under-65s preferred, but not essential (this is Japan). Successful candidate will be granted a licence to print money. Must be prepared to use it.

The biggest decision of 2003 for the thwarted reformist government of Junichiro Koizumi will be the replacement of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Masaru Hayami, whose term expires in March. With an announcement expected any day, all eyes in Tokyo are on a handful of undeclared candidates, and speculation is buzzing that Japan may be the first G7 nation to rip up the central bankers' rules on money supply.

With the country seemingly trapped in negative or negligible growth, and the so-called economic czar Heizo Takenaka blocked by conservatives in the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), a desperate Prime Minister needs to create inflation to release Japan from its deflationary "spiral of death."

With all the conventional fiscal and monetary tools tried to no effect, Koizumi has hinted that he favours an out-of-the-box thinker at the BoJ to get some life back into the economy. An inflationary environment, where goods are assumed to become pricier next year rather than cheaper, is seen as the best way to draw hoarded yen from a populace fretting over job security and shrinking pensions.

Paul Krugman, a long-time advocate of an inflationary policy, posits an inflation target of 2%, from a monetary base increase of 15%, though like many gaijin (foreign) economists, he believes this to be a minimum figure For such a risky strategy (the inflationary tap could be hard to turn off) Koizumi and Takenaka need a bank boss who will, unlike Mr. Hayami, fall in with their strategy. But Hayami's successor must also be independent-minded enough to resist the nexus of financial bureaucrats and allied politicians who oppose radical solutions, and even refuse to admit the gravity of the crisis. Not surprisingly, nobody is exactly touting for the post.

Pizz

(01/22/2003; 15:40:46 MDT - Msg ID: 95241)

Bulldog

And it's 50+F here in Seattle (we've got your chinook) with virtually no snow pack in the mountains and six to eight weeks left to build it up - fat chance. So this summer, we'll be rationing water in Seattle (oh, yea), and spilling what little run off we have thru the dams to protect the fish, and there will not be enough to keep us in electricity let alone selling our excess to California.

So higher utility bills in the works for all, less disposable money in the economy which will still spiral down, paper will continue to depreciate, and gold will continue to appreciate.

Too bad our investments can't appreciate on good news and good economic conditions. . .

Pizz

Black Blade

(01/22/2003; 15:40:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95242)

Lookin Good!

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Gold is looking very lively now. Note: On CNBC news tonight with Brian Williams they will dicuss the economic effects of the record cold. Everything from citrus growers getting nailed to retailers slumping sales. Meanwhile Spot is chasing higher like a dog hot on the scent of fresh game. I don't know if Sydney will provide as much action but Japan and Hong Kong could get very lively as equities markets could follow the US markets down and the overvalued dollar remains under pressure. Should get rather "interesting" in these "Interesting Times".

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!

Humble Pie

(01/22/2003; 15:48:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95243)

post # 95208

Nothing better to guard the chicken coop than the FOX.

Black Blade

(01/22/2003; 15:58:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95244)

Re: Pizz and Bulldog

Actually in a perfect world precious metals would be higher during these times as it is not necessarily war or energy that should be pushing PMs higher, but the sinking dollar on record level debt that keeps growing due to mismanagement in the economy, free wheeling lending, monetary policy, government pork, etc. The energy crisis and war are just giving investors and scared investors impetus to charge into PM investments where they should have been for insurance purposes to begin with. However, as I had just discussed with a former client a few moments ago, the market reacts to conditions rather than prepares for them.

Now with an energy crisis that will dwarf the last one by leaps and bounds looms on the horizon like a raiding horde of ravenous barbarians ready to storm in and plunder the wealth of the weak and unprepared. Soon many of the defenseless serfs will scramble looking for golden armor to deflect the stinging blows of the arriving hordes.

Pizz � you are right about the moisture problem. The Pac NW will need the hydro energy for themselves and as California is downstream from energy sources in the western states, they are at the bottom of the food chain. It looks like a repeat of the last California energy crisis. God forbid this summer has above normal high temperatures considering the economic problems they are suffering now. Unfortunately they did not use the time efficiently since the last crisis to build up much needed power generation and secure fuel supplies. It could get ugly.

Black Blade

- Now I definitely need to get to the gym!

Rock

(01/22/2003; 16:08:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95245)

Mr. Gresham

Nice posting on Another's thoughts. It came right on time with gold in the 360.00 range. If I read his posts correctly this is a critical level and if CB's lose control at the 360 mark we're talking a drastic blow out. Exciting times I must say.

Zhisheng

(01/22/2003; 17:15:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95246)

Pizz and Black Blade: Drought in NW.

I live on the Washington/Idaho border, and went to a meeting Monday night with people from all over the area. The talk was all about low soil moisture and lack of snow-pack. It may be a dry summer for the "Inland Empire".

Trojan

(01/22/2003; 17:37:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95247)

BREAKING NEWS Venezuela Referenum CANCELLED

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-2342944,00.htmlCould Someone familiar with the Venezuelan situation please offer some comments on this Breaking Story.

Do you think the Strikers now will call off the strike. Are they more likely now to agree to one of President Carter's two proposals or not ?

Comments appreciated. THis could have big effect on OIL and Gold. (If Strike Ends)

Thank You

Pizz

(01/22/2003; 17:42:06 MDT - Msg ID: 95248)

Black Blade

The media spends the first half of the month ranting recovery, no forth year down for stocks, hard assets are bad, etc.

They may give lip service to the "tempory high price of oil", but they never talk about just how our crippled transportation industry (CF bankrupsy, UAL bandrupsy)is to survive on 25 buck oil, let alone 30 buck plus.

And as you mentioned, can anyone, anywhere, come up with a solution to California's economic and energy problems? Right now, they know that electricty will be a problem, cause if I won't go into the Cascades and ski for fear of tearing my skis up on the rocks in the middle of January, someone should be running up a huge red flag somewhere.

But then again, when you're 35 Billion out of budget, there is no money anyway. . . .so what can they do. . . ok, sweat a whole bunch this summer and chase away what few industries are left.. . .

California, the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world, and going down the drain like a pressure camode. AND THE MEDIA PUNDENTS STILL FORCAST MODERATE GROWTH, ETC. ETC. Without California and with New York still in the dumps, just how can the US economy not go negative????

I can see the headlines now:

"With the rest of the country in a bit of a soft spot, Nebraska's fledgling gasahol industry has managed to pull the GDP positive this month with the prudent use of their unmarketable corn crop due to drought. . . ."

Sheesh, enough of a rant - buy gold - period!!!!

Pizz

makcumka

(01/22/2003; 17:56:04 MDT - Msg ID: 95249)

@ Pizz

To answer your previous post - someone needs to figure out that the best power source that exists is nuclear. Of course, California tree huggers will never let that happen.

I think France is entirely run on the nuclear power. Maybe that will be the answer. And instead of buying oil and gas, people of California will start buying gold. Right before they embrace the right to carry arms. Nah.

Gandalf the White

(01/22/2003; 17:56:55 MDT - Msg ID: 95250)

WOWSERS --- The VOLUMES on the COMEX are HUGE !!!

AND that is in DOWNUNDER !
wait til it get to HK !!!
<;-)

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 18:22:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95251)

Re-Venezuela article

http://washingtontimes.com/commentary/20030122-25468940.htmI think the constitution has a provision that says if 1.5 million
signatures are gathered a referendum can be called. The Guv
has ruled that the 2 million signatures are invalid because
a member of the election board was not a valid member.

Each side is playing political gotcha. What happens next is
anyones guess.

From Wash Times:

With every passing day, life for Venezuelans becomes more dangerous. Since his election four years ago, President Hugo Chavez has presided over the most dramatic decline in the nation's fortunes: Analysts predict that in the first quarter of 2003 the economy will contract by 40 percent; more than 1 million jobs have been lost; approximately 900,000 people have gone into voluntary exile (most of them middle-class professionals); unemployment is at a staggering 17 percent; Almost 70 percent of the country's industries have gone bankrupt; 70 percent of Venezuelans live in a state of poverty (up from 60 percent when Mr. Chavez began his rule); and the income of more than 15 percent of Venezuelans has dropped below the poverty line.
--------
The Venezuelan Constitution, approved by Mr. Chavez himself, provides for a referendum if 10 percent of the electorate petitions in writing. The opposition presented 2,057,000 signatures � some 15 percent of the voting rolls
_______

GoldnSilver2002

(01/22/2003; 18:39:23 MDT - Msg ID: 95252)

Good chance of short squeeze tomm!

While all the people who wouldnt buy gold before 'say "its too expensive,after the war blah blah",watch gold fly beyond their ability to pay or protect themselves from the upcoming storm.Gold is saying something to us.No matter how hard the now irrelevant u.s media told us gold would go down,it keeps flying up,picking up speed and now momentum.Many who hesitated or were(rofl) short on gold,wont be soon.The imminent rush for the exits is upon us.Japan will be forced soon to call in foreign holdings such as 1 trillion in us treasury bonds.The usd is set to collapse in on itself.Who knows how many bankrupcies now,with all the gold shorts going belly up soon.Buckle up guys and get ready to carve up some foolish gold short rump!
Dont let the asians buy all the gold first...get some while you still can.Hey mr wall st,guess what the top performing asset in 2003 is?GOLD

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 18:51:02 MDT - Msg ID: 95253)

Feds finally getting worried about energy crisis

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030122/utilities_ferc_1.htmlWASHINGTON, Jan 22 (Reuters) - The chairmen of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will hold a conference next month to find ways to shore up the energy industry's deteriorating credit.
_____
The guv can let some industries go under, energy is a nat security
issue. One analyst predicts $8 Nat Gas prices in Feb. Gold will
ride to over $400 soon. If Japan Inc goes kaput we could easily
see Gold over $1000 IMHO

Cavan Man

(01/22/2003; 19:52:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95254)

AMR Corporation, the parent of American Airlines, has described conditions for its company as "treacherous", as a slow world economy, terrorist threats and the possibility of a war with Iraq threaten its business.
The group pledged to make savings of $4bn (�2.6bn) in a bid to survive the bleak conditions, but said its performance to date continued to be unacceptable.

The news came as AMR reported losses of $529m for the three months to December, and $3.5bn for the whole of 2002 - the largest yearly loss in aviation history.

"Clearly, results such as the ones we reported today are unsustainable," said Don Carty, AMR's chairman and chief executive.

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 19:56:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95255)

Roger, we have ignition

Main engines burn
And we have liftoff of shuttle lady liberty
On a multi year mission to explore for
precious metals in the galaxy and beyond

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 20:00:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95256)

TOCOM trade soars

Reuters
Gold leaps in early Asia trade, TOCOM trade soars
Wednesday January 22, 8:49 pm ET

* Spot gold opened in Hong Kong at the highest level since March 1997, higher than New York's last traded levels on Wednesday and upward pressure remains as expectations of war in Iraq grow, dealers said;

* Spot gold (XAU=) opened at US$362.00/3.00 an ounce in Hong Kong, compared with New York's last quoted levels at US$359.60/0.35 and London's late fix at US$359.25;

* At 0120 GMT, spot gold was trading at US$362.00/2.75 an ounce;

* Spreads appear narrower than at other times of heightened political and economic tensions, suggesting trading activity not so hectic;

* On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the benchmark December gold futures (0#JAU:) contract opened eight yen higher at 1,375 yen, then climbed further to a session high of 1,385 yen on very heavy trade of 85,543 contracts;

goldquest

(01/22/2003; 20:28:54 MDT - Msg ID: 95257)

Tokyo Gold Blasts Higher

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030122/markets_japan_gold_3.html"Blasts" IS GOOD!

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 20:35:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95258)

N Korea threatens war

http://asia.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/east/01/22/koreas.un/UNITED NATIONS (CNN) -- North Korea has told the U.N. it would consider it an act of war if the Security Council imposes sanctions over the continuing nuclear weapons program dispute.

"They have said they would take such punitive action by the Security Council as a declaration of war," said Maurice Strong, U.N. special adviser on North Korea, following a visit to Pyongyang.

Washington's top arms control diplomat said Wednesday that it is time to refer the matter to the United Nations Security Council, which in turn could hit Pyongyang with sanctions.
__________
Scary times. The planet Mars is going to be closer to us this
year than any time in 70,000 years. hmmm

cyberbat

(01/22/2003; 20:44:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95259)

Spot Gold

is 10 cents away from 364.00 oz.

Caradoc

(01/22/2003; 20:46:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95260)

Crystal ball is cloudy....

With the end of the month only ten days out, gold probably won't pass by my number of $750 unless one of two things happens: (1) a real disruption begins during Comex's Thursday or Friday session or (2) some disastrous event prompts worldwide panic. I figure it will take 3 weeks of what will be popularly perceived as an insane temporary spike (i.e., pitched that way by CNBC and others) before gold reaches the thousand dollar mark.

The one thing I can't picture as happening is Comex continuing to make "Monopoly money" trades at, say, $450 while the dealer down the street is buying one-ounce Eagles at $950 and selling them for $1000. The definition of psychotic has to do with not being connected with the real world. So, if/when the soft yellow metal that you can actually touch and put in your pocket is trading at a particular price, it would literally be crazy for the imaginary version of that same metal to be trading at a significantly different price. If nothing else, a couple of traders choosing to take delivery would go a long way toward connecting the trading world with the real world.

Caradoc

And�ril

(01/22/2003; 21:24:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95261)

Caradoc think again

"if/when the soft yellow metal that you can actually touch and put in your pocket is trading at a particular price, it would literally be crazy for the imaginary version of that same metal to be trading at a significantly different price."

You are saying that the imaginary should carry the same price as the real? Why would anyone buy this illusion at full price when nothing can be had for free?

Gandalf the White

(01/22/2003; 21:25:18 MDT - Msg ID: 95262)

EASY SPIKE !! Let SPOT catch-up with you !!! <;-)

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=1&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=38&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iI$364. + on the SPIKE and $363 + now --- By the Chart at the LINK !!!
<;-)

canamami

(01/22/2003; 21:26:40 MDT - Msg ID: 95263)

The stock market needs a booming gold market....

...so speculators can recoup their techstock losses, and CNBC will have a new story to sell. Newmount as the new Microsoft, exploration companies yet unborn will be the new tech start-ups.

I'll never forget an interview involving Tice, Bartiromo and some pro-Clinton bull market guy ("bull" is the word). Tice said gold stocks would lead the market in the new millenium, and Bartiromo looked at him like he was insane.

canamami

(01/22/2003; 21:28:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95264)

$365.50

eom

Gandalf the White

(01/22/2003; 21:33:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95265)

WOWSERS Sir Goldquest -- that LINK was IMPORTANT !

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030122/markets_japan_gold_3.htmlSNIPPET--

TOKYO, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures blasted towards six-year highs in frantic morning trade on Thursday as fears of war in Iraq shoved spot bullion to a peak not seen since March 1997.
Nerves were frayed after Russian news agency Interfax said Russian armed forces had obtained information that the United States and its allies had already decided to attack Iraq from mid-February.
That sent speculators scrambling for bullion in New York overnight, and sparked a flurry of activity on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
"I haven't seen anything like this for a long time -- since early last year," one broker said.
Fears of a looming financial meltdown sparked a Japanese gold rush last February, at one point bring TOCOM grinding to a halt as a glut of orders clogged the computer.
Posting its fifth straight day of gains, December gold (JAUZ3) finished the morning up 18 yen at 1,385 yen per gram, a level not seen by a benchmark contract since May 1997.
Other months (0#JAU:) rose between 17 and 19 yen.
Morning turnover was a staggering 139,388 lots or 139.3 tonnes, more than Wednesday's full-session volume of 124,298 lots.
===
Those little old Japanese Housewifes are leading the way !!
ONWARD !!!
<;-)

Waverider

(01/22/2003; 21:34:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95266)

Gandalf

I had a feeling Streak might join the party tonight...but it seems she's rather allusive, a little mysterious, and well.. maybe a bit shy...

Gandalf the White

(01/22/2003; 21:39:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95267)

WOWSERS SPIKE !!! WAIT for SPOT !!!

THIS evenings action is just a prelude to things to come !
Can you envision what will happen when ONE of any of those "BIG HAPPENINGS" that each of the CONTEST posters REALLY DOES HAPPEN !!!
Perhaps Sir Ari's closing comment will be:
IT'S TOO LATE to get any GOLD, BUT I told you so !!
<;-)

Black Blade

(01/22/2003; 21:50:32 MDT - Msg ID: 95269)

U.K. Consumer Debt Threatens Banks, Economy, FSA Says

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_box.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_economies&box=ad_box_all&tag=economy∣dle=ad_frame2_economies&s=APi5T5xT1VS5LLiBD
Snippit:

London, Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. consumers are borrowing at a rate that increases risks for banks and may harm the economy, the country's financial regulator said. ``Borrowing by consumers in the U.K. is growing at an unsustainable rate,'' said Carol Sergeant, managing director of the Financial Services Authority, in a statement. ``The results could be lower overall economic growth, hardship for consumers, and increased credit risk for lenders.'' - ``Some segments of the population are already having difficulty meeting their debt commitments,'' Sergeant said. Banks need to check the riskiness of their lending, she said in the statement. U.K. consumers took advantage of rising house prices and borrowed a record amount against the value of their homes in the third quarter, the latest figures from the Bank of England show. Borrowing against rising house prices has let consumers keep spending and helped the economy expand faster than the average for the dozen nations that share the euro. Household demand accounts for about two-thirds of Europe's second-biggest economy.

Black Blade: Looks like another disaster about to come to light "across the pond". Apparently the Brits are no more intelligent than the Yanks. I just don't understand the concept of digging oneself deeper into a hole of debt that they can never extricate themselves, especially in this economy. When the music stops a lot of people will be standing without a chair. In a word � "Grim".

ElGordo

(01/22/2003; 22:08:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95270)

Tonight Miami temps in the 30's

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=2Records are expected to fall in many places.

Black Blade

(01/22/2003; 22:10:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95271)

More airlines bracing for possible bankruptcy

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/134619658_airlines22.html
Snippit:

FORT WORTH, Texas � As union leaders blasted American Airlines' labor cost-cutting strategy at a news conference yesterday, a report surfaced that the airline is preparing itself in case of a future bankruptcy filing. Citing sources close to the matter, Reuters news service reported that American Airlines has hired bankruptcy lawyers in case a war with Iraq worsens the industry's already-critical financial condition. The airline retained bankruptcy lawyers Marcia Goldstein and Martin Bienenstock of New York law firm Weil Gotshal & Manges, according to the report. The service said that Continental Airlines and America West also have hired bankruptcy attorneys and that Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines were "shopping around." Two major carriers, United Airlines and US Airways, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last year.

Black Blade: "Another one bites the dust!" No, make that 7 (or more) "bite the dust" or are about to. This is another sign of an ailing economy! With rising fuel costs, extreme competition for flyers, razor thin margins, etc. few have any pricing power. "Grim"

Gandalf the White

(01/22/2003; 22:12:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95272)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !UP-DATE as of 23:00 Wednesday 01/22/03 Denver Time !

With the VOLATILITY in the GC3G lately, I can understand why SOME PEOPLE are holding back on their ENTRY in the CONTEST ! BUT, there is a lot of room around Sir Caradoc that looks promising !
<;-)

===
QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003:

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 = $358.1 + $7.0 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a Low = $350.0
1/17/03 = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a Low = $355.3 and Sir ROCK is "King of the Hill" !
1/21/03 = $357.5 + $0.7 with a HIGH = $358.1 and a Low = $353.4 and Sir Goldenboy is "KING of the HILL" !
1/22/03 = $359.9 + $2.4 with a HIGH = $360.4 and a Low = $357.8 and Sir Henri is NOW "KING of the HILL!"
===
ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

**** $750.0 **** Caradoc (1/17/03; 10:49:20MT - msg#: 94778

**** $426.2 **** drawmax (1/20/03; 08:09:53MT - msg#: 94990)

**** $419.4 **** The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - msg#: 94798

**** $403.5 **** misetich (1/17/03; 18:25:29MT - msg#: 94815

**** $400.0 **** Sundeck (1/17/03; 04:25:05MT - msg#: 94737

**** $396.4 **** Bulldog (1/17/03; 20:05:57MT - msg#: 94825

**** $390.0 **** Galerider (01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - msg#: 94724)

**** $387.5 **** knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - msg#: 94800

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (1/17/03; 05:12:59MT - msg#: 94738

**** $383.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - msg#: 94791

**** $382.5 **** Hipplebeck (1/18/03; 06:47:33MT - msg#: 94850

**** $379.1 **** ha_tey_o (1/17/03; 07:24:56MT - msg#: 94741

**** $378.9 **** erayboy (1/17/03; 03:05:04MT - msg#: 94729
**** $378.8 **** miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - msg#: 94805

**** $378.1 **** a nation of one (01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - msg#: 94720

**** $375.5 **** balzac (1/18/03; 14:15:59MT - msg#: 94880

**** $375.0 **** Mountain Top (1/19/03; 10:56:32MT - msg#: 94937

**** $374.6 **** harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - msg#: 94792

**** $371.9 **** silvercollector (1/22/03; 05:15:12MT - msg#: 95191

**** $374.1 **** Slowman (1/17/03; 06:10:05MT - msg#: 94739
**** $374.0 **** Zhisheng (1/17/03; 09:53:34MT - msg#: 94762

**** $373.5 **** kahulik (01/20/03; 11:08:21MT - msg#: 94998

**** $372.2 **** Houston (1/19/03; 10:30:11MT - msg#: 94934

**** $372.0 **** OZ (1/17/03; 02:14:25MT - msg#: 94727

**** $371.8 **** Time For GOLD (1/22/03; 11:17:36MT - msg#: 95211

**** $370.9 **** Richman (1/22/03; 11:18:21MT - msg#: 95212

**** $370.5 **** VanRip (1/17/03; 07:59:23MT - msg#: 94747

**** $369.9 **** Ole Man (1/18/03; 23:30:28MT - msg#: 94912

**** $369.2 **** slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - msg#: 94796

**** $369.0 **** wiley (01/21/03; 12:21:41MT - msg#: 95102

**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750

**** $368.2 **** Zelts (01/21/03; 07:34:30MT - msg#: 95080

**** $367.4 **** Kagalaska (01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - msg#: 94721

**** $366.0 **** White Rose (01/21/03; 09:29:59MT - msg#: 95093

**** $365.2 **** pilgrims_gold (1/18/03; 10:01:47MT - msg#: 94863

**** $365.0 **** monTROZ (01/20/03; 12:50:24MT - msg#: 95005

**** $364.2 **** Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - msg#: 94755

**** $363.0 **** luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - msg#: 94795

**** $362.5 **** EagleOne (1/18/03; 14:02:13MT - msg#: 94877

**** $362.3 **** Renny (1/18/03; 05:15:47MT - msg#: 94848

**** $362.0 **** Albatros (01/21/03; 07:48:42MT - msg#: 95081

**** $361.1 **** Lothar of the Hill People (01/20/03; 13:51:40MT - msg#: 95013

**** $360.8 **** Liberty Head (01/20/03; 19:45:52MT - msg#: 95040

**** $360.5 **** Felix the Cat (1/20/03; 03:35:20MT - msg#: 94984

**** $360.0 **** Henri (1/18/03; 15:28:31MT - msg#: 94886

**** $359.1 **** 24carat (1/18/03; 16:10:36MT - msg#: 94889

**** $358.0 **** makcumka (1/20/03; 05:44:13MT - msg#: 94987

**** $357.6 **** goldenboy (01/21/03; 09:16:39MT - msg#: 95092

**** $348.0 **** Topaz (1/17/03; 03:06:48MT - msg#: 94730
===

INVALID ENTRIES
---
NONE !!!!!!
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.
---

THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February �03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 -----

The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old) goldpiece !!
Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin was
Minted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce.
(Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)
---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
(Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines"
LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!!
READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
---
LET the CONTEST CONTINUE !!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/22/2003; 22:14:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95273)

OOPS == Make that 22:00 Denver Time

<;-(

Trojan

(01/22/2003; 22:29:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95274)

What If ? Deserves Discussion and Debate THE OIL CARD

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,880437,00.htmlI know most Gold Folks are looking at the Gold Factor
with regard to an Invasion of Iraq.

Leave out the politics of the Guardian article in the Link above.

Let's Do a WHAT IF ?

By reading the article IMO I see very serious preparation to get the OIL.

Then what if the US and Britain Succeed ?

A Lower OIL Price. I think so. A Big market Rally.
Lower Oil prices helps the US Economy. Capital Goods purchases Ramp up especially in the Oil and related industries.

Is this how the USA gets out of the financial mess it is in ?

Does the Dollar regain strength ?

What happens to Gold ?

Intelligent, thoughtful comments would be appreciated

I think it IMPORTANT to look at ALL possible scenario's in the event of War with Iraq.

WHAT IF ?

Black Blade

(01/22/2003; 22:50:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95275)

Disability rolls rise, skew labor data

http://money.cnn.com/2003/01/22/news/economy/disability/index.htm
Recent research finds a 60% jump in number of disability recipients keeping unemployment low.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The U.S. unemployment rate would be substantially bigger if not for a 60 percent surge in the number of Americans drawing disability benefits since 1984, according to recent research by economists at MIT and the University of Chicago. The unemployment rate was 6.0 percent in December, according to the latest Labor Department data, but that figure only counts the portion of a group of people, called the "labor force," who are unemployed and looking for work. The "labor force," 142.5 million strong, does not include people who draw disability benefits from the Social Security Administration (SSA). As of December 2002, there were about 5.5 million adults getting disability benefits, totaling about $4.6 billion a month.

Black Blade: This adds another twist to the "Bone Pile" stats. So the "Disability Effect" would mean that the "official" unemployment rate is about 6.6% instead of 6%. Now consider those whose benefits have been exhausted, those who do not receive benefits, those who never apply for benefits (yes there are actually some who will not accept benefits out of pride), and those who are under employed. The actual size of the "Bone Pile" could easily exceed 11% or 12% (according to methodology outlined in BLS report 641 and excluding under employed). This is a surprise. The economy is in very bad shape and even worse than most people know. "Grim" � "Very Grim"

Black Blade

(01/22/2003; 23:29:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95276)

U.S. natgas prices seen sharply higher in Feb.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030122/energy_gas_outlook_1.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Bitter cold and growing supply concerns are poised to drive U.S. natural gas prices up to $8 per million British thermal units before winter ends, three times their year-ago levels, an energy industry analyst warned on Wednesday. "If the weather forecasts come in as predicted, I think by late February prices will be around $8 per million British thermal units," Andy Weissman, chairman of Energy Ventures Group, told an energy conference here. Cold weather in recent weeks have forced utilities to lean heavily on gas storage supplies to meet the rise in heating demand, pressuring inventories below historical comparisons and sending U.S. gas prices sharply higher. The dip in gas storage is part of a broader market concern about rising gas prices over the next decade. Weissman, like many industry analysts in recent months, warned the price of gas will likely see sustained increases in the years ahead due to falling U.S. gas production and a surge in popularity of gas, which burns "cleaner" than other fossil fuels like crude oil and coal. Nearly all new power plants built in the United States will run on natural gas over the next decade, while most new homes are built with the fuel and manufacturing industries rely heavily on gas to produce everything from steel to plastics. Gas supplies have struggled to keep up with consumption as highly productive gas fields discovered decades ago yield fewer and fewer hydrocarbons.

Black Blade: I have discussed this possibility here over the last three years and now here we are. This is a developing long term energy crisis of epic proportions that will stop any economic recovery dead in its tracks. Even securing Middle East oil supply will not solve the problem as power generation is not generally fueled by oil. The electricity/NatGas angle has been completely overlooked by Washington DC and Wall Street. This assures that economic recession will be a way of life for several years and that will propel the secular bear market for several years to come. As I keep saying, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance (NOW as it looks like we might not see much lower prices for a very long time � if ever), and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

ski

(01/22/2003; 23:47:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95277)

Now that the PM's are moving up, what are you actually DOING about it?

I penned this thought some time ago .... just a personal theory and observation ...

"Ski's market bottom phenomena theory says: The earliest investors (often the bottom fishermen and the perennial die-hard bulls) that have virtually been the ONLY BUYERS at the bottom, can be expected to QUIT BUYING as a given market begins to make sizeable percentage thrusts. Why do they quit buying? One, after doing all the heavy lifting, the early buyers feel vindicated and believe that they can take a well-deserved rest. Two, this group can't bring themselves to buy at the new, much higher prices (in percentage terms). Three, some begin to doubt that the price spikes are for real. Four, they lack the resources (cash), having spent everything at the bottom. Five, they embrace "buy low & sell high" but the wisdom of "buy high & sell higher" is beyond their understanding. At this point in the market cycle, the torch is effectively passed to the NEXT GROUP of market participants, the wise old pro's who will fully exploit the principle of "buy high & sell higher" and can be expected to ultimately make the most overall profit. Learn from them!"

The headline for this post is intended to get forum members thinking about what they should be DOING, now that the long awaited move in PM's is apparently underway. Except for making you feel good, just WATCHING the PM markets move accomplishes almost nothing. If you want to benefit from your accumulated knowledge about PM's, YOU NOT ONLY HAVE TO PUT YOUR MONEY ON THE TABLE..... imho.... YOU HAVE TO KEEP ADDING TO THE PILE!

The facts seem to suggest that we are still in the earliest stages of a market that is promising stellar returns. These kind of opportunities are fairly uncommon over the length of the average lifespan. Logic tells me that even though prices have moved a long way off of there bottoms, I think that it still makes the most sense to continue to add to my positions (buy the dips and pactice a little "buy high & sell higher"). In my case this means that I have been buying more of Company X at $9 a share even though I got in at $3 in a big way. Why? Even though prices are already up 300%, the fundamentals indicate that the stock still has a long way to go. When it hits $20 or more, I will be a lot happier holding 10 thousand shares instead of only 2 thousand shares. When it goes from $19 to $20, a one dollar move, it won't matter if I bought at $3, $8 or $15. What will matter is the number of shares (or ounces) that I have times that $1 move!

At this point in the PM market cycle, as I acquire more investment money, I take a good look around the investment universe and ask myself .... What is the BEST opportunity out there? Is it time to move into something else? The answer I am still clearly getting is to add heavily to my existing PM positons.

Just as an aside, I have convinced several people around me to buy a few hundred dollars worth of silver rounds. But, I must sadly report that once these amateurs have made their first move, it never occures to them to buy more!! To me this is the equalivalent to winning the jackpot on a nickel slot machine ..... maybe $300 .... big deal. Since $300 won't hardly change your life .... why even bother??

I'm practicing "buy high & sell higher". What about you?

abudahhab

(01/22/2003; 23:53:37 MDT - Msg ID: 95278)

When the Money Goes Worthless

Dear Mr. Gresham,

Thank you so much for posting those great snippits from Another and FOA. These two have been on my mind for the past few days, as it has struck me that so much of what they predicted is just now coming to pass.

Oh, how the great manipulation game has tested our patience these past few years! Yet, we are now in the at the beginning of the final great devaluation of the $US.

Our paper money is about to go worthless. The great parables of Another and FOA gave us all ample warning, and I hope many heeded their message. It is not yet too late to protect your wealth....

TownCrier

(01/23/2003; 00:21:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95279)

Burning the midnight oil on website issues, found this by the wayside

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030123/minerals_gold_1.htmlHEADLINE: Gold gallops to six-year high as war talk swirls

SYDNEY, Thrusday Jan 23 (Reuters) - Gold hit $364.00/$365.00 an ounce in Hong Kong as Asian centres reported frantic trading. It was bullion's highest price since January 1997.

Gold climbed 25 percent in 2002 to make it one of the year's star performing assets. Gold is up five percent so far this year.

Higher oil prices and a hobbled U.S. dollar were also pulling more investors into gold.

"Gold is in the spotlight as a hedge against inflation and as an asset that can be trusted in times of war," Eagle Mining Research analyst, Keith Goode, said.

------(article at url)-------

Many media reports would have you believe that gold's rise is due purely to a war premium on the safe haven. However, given all that has been discussed here regarding the large view of international currency dymamics, I think it is safe for me to say that that view is narrow to the point of disservice to their readers.

Call Centennial today to protect your net wealth.

R.

TownCrier

(01/23/2003; 00:30:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95280)

Related news item... HEADLINE: Gold, euro up on Iraq fears

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030123/markets_global_1.htmlSINGAPORE, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Investors looking for safe havens from Iraq war fears flocked to gold and the euro on Thursday, sending them to six- and three-year peaks respectively...

"Tensions are going to rise in February," said Gordon Cheung, director of precious metals trading at Mitsui Bussan in Hong Kong. "The U.S. is setting a deadline and it looks like war is quite imminent."

The dollar's recent weakness has also benefited bullion, as the United States is expected to foot much of the bill for a war that would be a drag on an already sluggish U.S. economy.

---------(article at url)------

Caradoc

(01/23/2003; 00:34:46 MDT - Msg ID: 95281)

And�ril: Not at all!

My point -- which evidently I didn't make very well -- was that futures contracts like coffee, orange juice, or soybeans are related to the real (current) price of the commodity as adjusted by things like perceived likelihood of a freeze driving price up or a bumper crop driving price down. But gold futures as now traded amount to no more than a varying number of dollars for something that might as well be called a "whatsit." If priced in relationship to real gold by somebody factoring in supply and demand, the numbers would be larger, representing perceived value of the real item at the future date. In other words, even while allowing for gold = money, it could come to be traded the same way as other commodities. What I can't see continuing is the trading of something called "gold" but not related to real gold.

As you correctly point out, "...nothing can be had for free." It can indeed be had for free since it's by definition worthless. (Chris Kristofferson: "Nothing ain't worth nothing but it's free.") All I'm saying is that as people come to realize that gold futures contracts as now traded are not related to the real thing and amount to little more than the opportunity to bet on red or black with odds set by the house, the perceived value of such contracts should sink toward the zero point where there are no buyers and the contracts cease to trade.

Or they can get real.

Since poetry sometimes communicates better than prose.... Those not holding the yellow metal risk ending up in the gutter singing Kristofferson's "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose." Those holding the yellow metal may well be free to ponder the wisdom of J.R.R. Tolkein:

All that's gold does not glitter.
All who wander are not lost.

Perhaps some of the worthies at this table can help me remember Tolkein's third line, which comes before "Deep roots are not touched by frost." Meanwhile, I intend to make less and less true the words of another song about all the gold in California being in a bank in the middle of Beverly Hills in somebody else's name.

Caradoc

Knallgold

(01/23/2003; 00:35:05 MDT - Msg ID: 95282)

Silver Australian Dollars Instead of Russian Gold Ruble

http://english.pravda.ru/main/2003/01/21/42356.htmlPravda...

And�ril

(01/23/2003; 00:54:14 MDT - Msg ID: 95283)

Wonderful Caradoc

Your two Kristofferson points are well made.

On the other point, you must retry to capture the correct nuance. You cannot say "ALL who wander are not lost" because SOME who wander shall never find home.

All that is gold does not glitter,
Not all those who wander all lost;
The old that is strong does not wither,
Deep roots are not reached by the frost.

Gold is an old deep root, glittering or not according only to the light, though never lost by those who know!

And�ril

(01/23/2003; 00:57:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95284)

Independent fingers... or keyboard?

Properly said:

Not all those who wander _are_ lost;

ElGordo

(01/23/2003; 01:10:04 MDT - Msg ID: 95285)

Demonstrations may turn violent

ElGordo

(01/23/2003; 01:12:46 MDT - Msg ID: 95286)

Oil still in short supply

Singapore, Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose on concern Venezuela won't get oil production back to normal for months, threatening to further deplete oil supply in the U.S., even as some strikers in the country returned to work.

At least 33 of 45 tanker pilots in Venezuela, the world's fifth-biggest oil exporter, returned to work after the government offered back-pay, said Herbert Montero, operations director of the government's National Waterways Institute. While cracks are beginning to appear in the opposition-led nationwide strike, it may be months before output gets back to normal.

``Venezuela would need about five months to resume crude production at normal levels after the end of the strike,'' said Anthony Nunan, a manager at the international petroleum trading business at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo.

TownCrier

(01/23/2003; 01:19:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95287)

Gold and its miners not necessarily in the same boat

http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/zones/sundaytimes/business/business1043307346.aspHEADLINE S.AFRICA: Rand hedges hit by currency strength

The JSE Securities Exchange South Africa (JSE) opened lower on Thursday on the back of a stronger rand.

Despite the gold price rising further on Wednesday's gains, gold stocks were not able to offset the losses on the dual listed and rand hedge stocks.

----------------

A stronger rand (or any given local currency) can cut into the profitability of the local mining company which finds that their cost of production (worker salary) per ounce is turning ore into overburden. That is, rendering economic reserves into mere resources for those of you who parlez exploitation d'or, more or less.

R.

TownCrier

(01/23/2003; 01:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95288)

Will you see a penny of operation profits?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/business/2003/01/item20030123181505_1.htmHEADLINE byline: Gold producers are hoping the recent surge in world gold prices will prompt more investment in the exploration of the precious metal.

Australian Gold Council spokeswoman Tamara Gorrie says gold exploration across the world has halved over the past five years ... "We've seen basically all gold producers experience rises in their share price but it is our desperate hope that will trickle down to the exploration sector, which really is the gold industry's future and will actually see stronger investment support in relation to explorers."

--------(article at url)------

If a mining company does in fact earn more profits (local currency effects included; see previous comments) from a rising dollar price of gold, will this profit pass through to the shareholder's direct benefit in the form of increased dividends, or will it be channeled into exploration in an attempt to preserve and extend company lifespan against exhausting the current minable reserves existing under the company's control.

As a gold owner, when gold rises, you benefit directly.

R.

ElGordo

(01/23/2003; 01:37:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95289)

The forgotten war

Blasts Rock Southern Afghanistan Near Pakistan

Thu January 23, 2003 02:52 AM ET

CHAMAN, Pakistan (Reuters) - Residents of southern Afghanistan said Thursday an Afghan military vehicle had been destroyed in a rocket attack near the border with Pakistan.

They were speaking after people in the Pakistan border town of Chaman reported hearing and feeling loud explosions on Wednesday evening.

Local Afghan officials confirmed the blasts but declined to say what had caused them.

Residents in the area said an Afghan military vehicle had been rocketed, caught fire and been completely destroyed. The fate of the soldiers in the vehicle was not immediately known.

Witnesses in Chaman told Reuters Thursday they had heard loud explosions from across the border and seen black smoke in the sky at sunset. They said they had later seen U.S. aircraft flying in the area.

Remnants of the ousted Islamic Taliban movement and al Qaeda network have increased attacks on Afghan and U.S.-led coalition forces in recent months, especially in Pashtun-dominated areas of southern Afghanistan.

There have been several hit-and-run rocket attacks on military bases used by the coalition forces as well as bombings.

silvercollector

(01/23/2003; 02:41:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95290)

Multiple resistance levels

Interesting attacks over the last few weeks at the infamous 354/355 level. A few of us have been discussing this. Are we through this level?

Check spot of Jan. 17, (4) hits at 358.20/30, what a beautiful pic! Check Jan. 22 (yesterday), at least (5) cracks at 359.60, now we sit over $362.

Looking at a 10-year (spot) chart I see no resistance until $380/390. Gold spent 2 years locked into the 380/400 slot during all of '94 & '95.

The last 2 trading days of this week will be wild, good luck!

Belgian

(01/23/2003; 03:14:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95291)

Rhetorical Question......

Rising POG....a decline in LBMA paper-gold circus....AND GOLDMINES STAYING ICY-FLAT !!! Why, dear forumers ...WHY ? TIA.

Belgian

(01/23/2003; 03:37:32 MDT - Msg ID: 95292)

@ Towncrier

Your mine-posting crossed my rhetorical question...(not so) accidently !? Smile ...a hughe one ! You deserve it.

Could it be that the 1971-1999 Gold-Chapter has ended and that we started a new chapter...book, titled " THE ZEURO CONCEPT " ?

CNBC-Euroland, just emphazises on the 360$-magic. Rumors go that, certain, "Giants" want all the physical they can get when POG goes higher than 360$ ! Very funny statement indeed !

For those who want to "understand" : Read (study) FOA : * GOLD MOBILIZATION * msg. # 91 (08/06/01)
WHERE TO is WICH Gold going and for WHAT purpose !? Happy reading.

Black Blade

(01/23/2003; 03:42:47 MDT - Msg ID: 95293)

USD Goes Sub-100!!! Russia Sells US Dollar Reserves!!!

The US dollar just went sub 100 and the really big news is that the Russian Central Bank announced that they will sell US dollars for Euros because of low returns. Meanwhile Gold firms up!

- Black Blade

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/23/2003; 04:15:19 MDT - Msg ID: 95294)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

MK. Fundamentally, we believe that we are here to serve the client. Anyone who has done business with us will vouch for the courteous and professional service he or she has received. Our staff is carefully chosen and it shows. We get referrals on nearly a daily basis and are kept busy with strong repeat business. I would also like to call attention to the solid informational services offered at this website. We believe that any of our clients or visitors will find USAGOLD head and shoulders above anything else out there. I would encourage anyone attending this site to have a look around. We also publish a very good hard copy newsletter called News & Views: A Bi-monthly Review of Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Above and beyond that, the most important thing is the way we treat our clientele. From first inquiry through order fulfillment, we want to make the gold investing experience as pleasant and rewarding as possible. We have a large and satisfied clientele and that's the way we want to keep it.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/23/2003; 04:23:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95295)

International clients: Please take note of our new toll free Int'l phone numbers

http://www.usagold.com/phone.html
Implemented to help us serve you better. Let us help you with your next gold order.

We are pleased to pass along what our European clientele have been telling us -- that our pricing is superior to most of their banks and brokerage firms. Further, we support and encourage delivery of the gold while our competitors primarily promote certificate programs. With USAGOLD - Centennial you'll get a good price AND GET what you pay for!

From New Zealand to the Netherlands, from Australia to Austria, from the British Isles to the Great White North, we offer the service you want and the professionalism you need.

TownCrier

(01/23/2003; 04:54:44 MDT - Msg ID: 95296)

Euro action can be seen as subparallel to gold action

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=2095325Although focusing on the euro, this article supports my comments offered in the first post of today wherein I indicated that it was a narrow view to say that the rising price of gold was based primarily upon a war premium. There is a larger currency dynamic at work, and this article gives more than a hint of that...

Please read these excerpts with a will toward fullest possible comprehension as it applies to gold, too.

R.

PS. Thanks, Belgian.
--------------

Euro Rally Builds Steam, Dollar Hit
Thu January 23, 2003
LONDON (Reuters) - The euro rallied to its highest level in three years against the dollar, knocking the greenback lower on other fronts as the single currency's rally gained strength, even in absence of fresh geopolitical impetus.

...dealers said the euro's ability to break higher through tough resistance at $1.0750 on Thursday showed its advance was building its own momentum, even without new headlines on Iraq to undermine the dollar.

"It's definitely not news-driven and the interesting thing is also that we've not heard the word "Iraq" mentioned all morning," said Nick Parsons, currency strategist at Commerzbank.

"It's more of a euro move than a dollar move, but those who had tried to go long of dollars this morning just on the back of the stronger S&P (futures index) and the belief that the momentum was fading are getting stopped out now."

Also knocking the dollar lower was news Russia's central bank would raise the level of its non-dollar reserves because of low returns on the U.S. currency, just the latest in a lengthening line of investors -- public or private -- to shun the greenback.

"There are hints of diversification, of greater favor toward the euro out of Asia. One is by Japanese deposit investors," said Aziz McMahon, currency strategist at ABN Amro.

...European Central Bank council member Ernst Welteke was quoted this week as saying the dollar was not too weak and needed no support.

----(see url for full article)-------

Hipplebeck

(01/23/2003; 06:11:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95297)

concerning FOA

I want my friends in forum land to think about a couple of things. FOA and Another have truly spelled out the path that the unfolding currency crises is following and will follow, but keep in mind, they are Euro salesmen.
They speak with authority on how a currency death happens, and they are right, but they have no wish to see gold as money again, in fact, they say it is not possible. Please read your history, your constitution, Ferdinand Lips book Gold Wars etc etc. and don't be mislead. Until gold takes it's rightful place as money again, these fiat problems will occur over and over again. That is the legacy that is being passed on to your children and your children's children. The Euro is more desirable than the dollar only in the fact that it is just beginning it's ponzi process whereas the dollar has reached the end of it's ponzi. The Euro is a "new and improved" ponzi. When a currency comes along that is truly backed by gold and is truly a receipt for a certain amount of redeemable gold, it will kick aside the Euro. The Euro will last only as long as it's credibility. Just like the dollar did. The world will have these problems as long as it has dishonest money.
Gold is honest money for honest people.
The transformation does not take place on the government level. It takes place on the individual level. I have begun trading with my neighbors and acquantances with gold and silver and I encourage all to do the same. Only through grass roots changes is honesty to return to our financial system. And Aristotle, by trading with my neighbors in gold, I am NOT taking any thing away from your property! If you think so, you are MISTAKEN.

Belgian

(01/23/2003; 06:18:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95298)

@ Towncrier

Euro-action can be seen as subparallel to Gold-action.....Next title(s) might be :

*** The euro-concept IS fully parallel with Gold-Wealth !!!***

Reuters = Rothshield family !

When CNBC-Euroland, recently, ridiculed the euro, politically and economically...I send some words about the euro-concept, to their Squawk box. The rest was deafening silence...as usual but no more ridiculing either.

In the recent fight between Sir A. Fekete and Dr. Murenbeeld, about ABX...both never, ever ask the one and only important question : WHERE WILL ABX's underground gold, MOVE TO AND WHY IS THIS SO ?

Let all those miners keep on hedging as much as possible !
That's where the euro-concept wanted them in the first place !

A. Smith is correct in projecting that LBMA - gold-paper contract market will run dry (zero) before 2007.
That's exactly the kind of hibernation that the euro-concept was looking for > to be replaced by....A FREE PHYSICAL ONLY EURO GOLD MARKET !!! Thanks Andy (not Randy)...love ye.

Towncrier, please do not "thank" me anymore...I own everything to all of you, here.

Shroder (Germany) and Chirac (France) wrote a bit of history, this week. Euroland (the euro), strong / stronger WITHIN ITS DIVERSITY ! To be continued, highly probable, slow > fast > faster.

America is in the process of making a very ***unfortunate***, mistake with its rigidly outlined ME policies.

Now I do understand A/FOA's "Political Will" ! And here goes the almighty US$ emperor with cosmic consequences for us all. The euro will rise within the new *currency-system*.

Thank YOU Sirs Strauss and Douglas. Thanks CPM.

Belgian

(01/23/2003; 06:44:08 MDT - Msg ID: 95299)

@ Hipplebeck # 95297

The euro is NOT new. The ECU (European Currency Unit) existed already long ago !
If A/FOA were indeed, ordinary euro-salesmen, as you state...why does M. Kosares tolerates them in his archives ?
A/FOA and all here, are *** GOLD ADVOCATES ***, and not currency / confetti freaks !
Are A/FOA, really """ misleading """ us with stating that Gold IS Wealth ?
Explain us, please, about your future "currency" that is really "backed-redeemable" by Gold ?
What exactly is the "improvement" on the euro-ponzi ?

You : ...The transformation does not take place on the government level. It takes place on the individual level.
My question : Wich "individuals" will change "what" and "when" ? Yes, I have no objection, trading with you and friends, in Physical Gold. How many of us are there on this planet ? How are these honest folks going to set a permanently adjusting, "Value" on our Gold-dealings ?
Looking forward to your answer(s) and TIA. Regards.

Christian

(01/23/2003; 06:47:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95300)

Dollar monetary base is contracting

Pension losses and off balance sheet gold loans will sink our economy. The FED is flooding the banks with money, but the banks can not force borrowers to borrow. So what do banks do- buy European bond debt. Average pension losses averaged 10% for three years in a row and a fourth year is on the way. The Europeans with a ever stronger Euro can buy gold cheaper and this will now drive the gold market. Many Japanese are now moving out of their yen savings into Euro's, so are the Chinese and so is Russia and the Middle East countries. Oil is still priced in $'s that are getting weaker. With the Euro getting stronger and the dollar getting weaker, oil or gold can increase in $ costs but not in Euro's. The FED has accepted the potential higher inflation in oil and gold. The FED knows that the rise in government spending without any offset in productivity in manufacturing will produce deficit spending inflation that will erase any chance of economic growth for years to come. Over the last few years the average home mortgage refinancing borrower took out loans that are $41,000 larger then what was previously owed. I see USA and European stock markets fall another 60% in the next 6 years. I see the dollar fall 60% the next 6 years. I see gold going to $467 as overseas dollars seek refuge in gold. The American Empire like the former British Empire will shrink as people all over the world that there is no prohibition on financial slavery or involuntary monetary servitute.

sourdough

(01/23/2003; 06:53:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95301)

This says a lot

CTV news in Canada just ran a clip on a story about the recent BUSH speech to "SMALL BUSINESS" in America concerning his administration policy.
Seems like the backdrop for the speech was a wall of cardboard shipping boxes stating "MADE IN THE USA".
The film showed that in fact the boxes were all stamped "Made in China". Someone had blacked out made in China and stamped the boxes MADE IN U.S.A
When discovered the explanation was some overzealous aid had taken it on his own to change it.
No need to say more! That says it all!

mikal

(01/23/2003; 07:03:08 MDT - Msg ID: 95302)

LETS-Local Exchange Trading Systems

http://www.madisonhours.org/about.htmlhttp://www.lightlink.com/hours/ithacahours/home.html
London, Toronto, Berkeley, Santa Barbara, Vancouver, Ithaca, Madison, Thailand, and more now participants in LETS(a time-honored tradition).
Many other web resources available to facilitate sustainable, fair local commerce and protection from computer and economic disruption.

Christian

(01/23/2003; 07:14:44 MDT - Msg ID: 95303)

Greenspan will back the dollar with gold. HOW>

With commodity gold trading at $360+, credit creation gold has been trading at $10,800 + or - $200 on the OTC. Should commodity gold trade at $467, credit creation gold will trade around $14,000 and that will be enough to back the dollar by 15%. It is do-able and it is going to happen. When= the sooner the better but it won't be without a fight. Greenspan is going to inflate the commodity sector and deflate the wall street sector. It is the right thing to do. ----30,000 tonnes of gold credit creation gold swaps exchanged hands on the OTC last year. Not one dime in profits or losses reported to the IRS. The OTC is the real gold market, not the COMEX or other paper game institutions.

Hipplebeck

(01/23/2003; 07:20:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95304)

At this critical juncture

I want to make it plain as possible to all my friends.

The Euro is NO different than the dollar.
All this "Euro/gold new concept" BS is just that. BS
They are jealous of the dollar's position in the world and rightly so.
The US dollar has been debased and has no right to be the world currency.
It has been ripping off the world for the last thirty years.
Now the Euro people want that advantage. Of course they do!
But to try and sell it as anything but what it is is pure BS.
It is FIAT.
This "trading along side gold yatta yatta yatta in a new concept" is pure bunk.
What they want is that gold and oil be priced in Euros so that they control wealth and Middle East oil.
The world uses dollars as the measuring rod of value in the world right now, and they want the world to measure everything in Euros. and it is simple as that.
It is about control.
Does anyone really believe that once they have this control they will not take advantage of it just as the US has done?
The US system is falling apart because the money has been debased. The US thinks they have the guns to force the world to continue using dollars. That is why they are projecting that force in a heavy handed way right now. They know that this a critical time.
The Euro faction is making their play by not backing the US in it's war against Iraq. It is about who controls, not about honest money.
To move to the Euro is to be sold from one master to another, not breaking free of slavery.
Break free of slavery.
Dump these empire builders.
Use honest money.

Buena Fe

(01/23/2003; 07:41:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95305)

Hipplebeck (1/23/03; 07:20:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 95304)

bang on buddy!

everyone can review the drama in rev 17-18 (and james 5:1-6)

we're in the transisiton from e-7 to e-8

25 years from now (wild guess) we'll rap up e-8 and live under a just KING

till then ... go gold

Hipplebeck

(01/23/2003; 07:45:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95306)

Belgian

Every day, when you buy something you must make that value judgement.
With fiat money, once you have traded, someone can steal the value away from you by just printing more fiat.
With gold as money, they cannot steal that value away.
Only by someone working hard and digging it out of the ground can there be more in circulation. Gold represents the labor it took to get it out of the ground, and the desirability it carries intrinsic to itself. What can be said of paper?

Hipplebeck

(01/23/2003; 07:49:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95307)

Foa and Another say

work hard so you can acquire fiat Euros so you can buy gold with it.
If they were sincere gold advocates, why mention Euro at all?
Why not
work hard so you can acquire real wealth. Gold. Why bother with the middle man?
They have a stake in the Euro.

Hipplebeck

(01/23/2003; 07:52:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95308)

Buena Fe

Thanks bud, that's where I get my information too.

Belgian

(01/23/2003; 07:54:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95309)

@ sourdough

Take a look at China Fund-stock (NYSE) 10 years !
Is it a co-incidence that it reached its ATLow in 1999...together with POG=253$ ??? Now almost doubled since then and rising after having broken a long term down trend.

China will revaluate its currency against a declining dollar as soon as it can relax its "exportitis" and encourage internal growth / consumption � la Euroland.
Dollar out...Gold in...new trade-flows.

The Traveler

(01/23/2003; 07:56:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95310)

@Hipplebeck #95304

You are largely correct is your premises but wrong in your emotional conclusion.

Because of decades of abuse (debt creation resulting in severe over-leverage), the US$ is not sustainable in its current form. End of story.

Until the Euro came of age, foreigners had no alternative to the US$ - no competitor. Now they have a reasonable choice: The Euro, warts and all, or the over extended US$.

To put this in less theoretical terms, consider this. You are a prince of the realm with lands and title galore. Your 99 year-old king is in his death bed and a 20 year-old king from the neighboring kingdom has laid siege to the castle. To whom will you swear your allegiance?

Are you giant-like yet?

Toaster

(01/23/2003; 07:57:40 MDT - Msg ID: 95311)

How large is the goldbug movement

http://www.globalstockalert.com
Global Stock Alert has an interesting column on the Wild World of Goldbugs. Apparently there are a lot more goldbugs around to push up the price of gold than most people think.

Also check out Robert Milan's take at te site on gold going to $1000 per ounce, if you haven't read that yet.

Hipplebeck

(01/23/2003; 08:04:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95312)

The Traveler

I swear my alliegance to the third choice.
The honest King, whose kingdom is of gold.

Clint H

(01/23/2003; 08:05:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95313)

Hipplebeck msg#: 95304

Hipplebeck )
<>
No need to stay angry. What you say is true. You are free to use your gold today as money. Take a one ounce American Eagle to Wall-Mart today and they will let you buy $50 in products.
Until this changes there is the opportunity to buy at very cheap prices.

Waverider

(01/23/2003; 08:12:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95314)

Spot 'n Spike

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html$365+ this morning.

PH in LA

(01/23/2003; 08:15:37 MDT - Msg ID: 95315)

A Thought for Hipplebeck

Dear Hipplebeck:

You do not have "friends" in forumland. This is the internet, not the neighborhood. No thoughtful person makes a friend here and then lets him take over the personal task of thinking for him "out of friendship". For this reason, your entreaties and longings for "gold as money" strike a somewhat sour note here.

And furthmore, your mantra that FOA and Another are nothing but "euro shills" does not hold much water. The FOA that I remember (and have recently been re-reading at the recomendation of Belgian) is a deep and overwhelmingly penetrating and imaginative thinker. These traits scream out of every post. Many here have followed Another's "Thoughts" since before FOA made his appearance. Neither of them ever advocated the holding of euros as wealth.

You show unexpected insight when you write, "transformation does not take place on the government level. It takes place on the individual level". This was always the viewpoint of FOA, too. Fiat money IS money because everyone thinks it is so. We all pay our bills with dollars, are paid in dollars and if we had enough of them, any one of us would be rich in dollars. You cannot deny this reality, because it is so. Period. You are also right that this puts us at risk of fraud on the part of bankers. Yet it is only one of the risks we run every moment of every day we survive in this modern world. For example, we could die in an automobile accident. Does this mean we should abolish automobiles? Or we could be shot by a madman wielding a shotgun. Should we abolish gunpowder? (Even though some say yes, the rest of us recognize that it is not going to happen. And that an attempt to do so will only empower those willing to contravene society's convention.) Etc.

It should be more than enough that FOA and Another warn us about what is happening so that we can take prudent steps to protect ourselves from the plots and traps being set for us by the banker/ruling classes.

Protect yourself with gold. Don't worry so much about the future pitfalls awaiting our children/grandchildren/great-grandchildren/etc. with regards to euro-fiat. They will be well able to take care of themselves. If you truly do lose sleep worrying about the threat fiat holds for them, the best thing you can do for them now is: Be productive. And pass them the fruits of your productivity in the form of gold. You can be fairly certain that it will arrive intact in their hands.

Paper Avalanche

(01/23/2003; 08:24:30 MDT - Msg ID: 95317)

@ Hipplebeck

I will throw in my two cents worth based on my simpleton's view of the euro vs. dollar:

Dollar = Fiat that increases it's value by having gold be artifically manipulated lower.

Euro = Fiat that increases it's value by having physical gold price increase due to market forces.

No claim that the Euro is backed by gold. Both are fiat. Only the valuation dynamic is different. More importantly, the valuation dynamic required by the dollar is mathematically impossible to continue indefinitely. However, the valuation dynamic for the Euro CAN continue indefnitely. That is where we are today. The world is waking up to this new reality.

If you want to use gold to pay for stuff, that is your choice. My gold is too vaulable to use as money.

I welcome all thoughts.

Take care all.

Paper Avalanche

Gandalf the White

(01/23/2003; 08:25:56 MDT - Msg ID: 95318)

SPOT is JUMPING today ! <;-)

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=1&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=38&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iI$367 + !!
SPOT is catching up with SPIKE !!
WAY ta GO !!
<;-)

Hipplebeck

(01/23/2003; 08:38:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95319)

Thanks to all

for responding to my rantings.
I am not angry, just excited.
I, too, have been trading in my hard earned fiat for gold since the eighties. I plan to pass it on as wealth when I die. I try to be productive, but lately I have trouble tearing myself away from watching the slow motion train wreck.
I realize that the world is the way it is, and we must deal with it, but that does not mean it cannot be changed.
Think how the world changed when that first banker issued a receipt for a bit of gold that he did not have. Talk about grass root change. From that one small act, we have built up a financial universe that we all now serve. What one small act can now change it for the better? I don't know. I respect Foa and Another and all on this forum, who I do consider my friends whether they consider that of me or not.

ValuePro

(01/23/2003; 08:45:23 MDT - Msg ID: 95321)

Paper Avalanche

FWIW, the eruo, while not convertible, is backed by 15% gold reserves.

pinetree

(01/23/2003; 09:04:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95322)

gold contest

My gut feeling for the price of gold in the next few years is up to the 500-600 dollar range. For the limited time of this contest I will predict 380.20

Truthcaster

(01/23/2003; 09:18:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95323)

Contest ****369.50****

Gee gold is looking good today ;o)
With the dollar falling past 100 for
the first time in a long time and the
fear of war in the mideast it seems likely
that gold with stay strong for some time to
come. The question is silver, it's been quiet
here the last few days any idea why, whats it
waiting for?

Humble Pie

(01/23/2003; 09:25:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95324)

#95315

You don't post often ,but when you do it's worth a lot.Play it again Sam and keepit up

GoldenSun

(01/23/2003; 09:26:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95325)

FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract

****$376.2****

Come on Silver, you're lagging behind your big brother.

Achilles

(01/23/2003; 09:27:54 MDT - Msg ID: 95326)

*******371.2*******

Let's just say that almost every conceivable future event is positive for gold. War, falling dollar, etc.- they've all been talked about on this forum and elsewhere. We're seeing today how gold can and will move due to the weakness in the $. As more countries follow Russia in moving away from Dollar denominated assets, we'll see POG escalate for that reason alone. What will happen when central banks around the world start tightening their golden pursestrings. Remembering Ernest and Julio Gallo, "We will sell no gold until we get what's owed". Less than eighteen months til the Washington Agreement expires. The signatories will announce their intentions well ahead of time. What think ye?

Trapper

(01/23/2003; 09:52:32 MDT - Msg ID: 95327)

Sir Hipplebeck

The euro has created as many questions as answers. I worked for a company that imported 95% of its products (muzzleloading guns) from euorland. They have a real problem as there claim to fame was a pretty good product at cheap prices. Now with the products priced in euros the cost is more than than their US competitors. With this new strength in the euro watch for more examples like this. I belive that this Dollar vs the euro is nothing less than a trade war and the US has a few weapons yet to be used.
This 15% backing is also interesting. With all the smart folks out there please help me figure out this problem. If euroland wants to expand to dominate the US how much cash will it need to do it? Then how much gold will they have to buy to keep the 15% backing. To grow their industries, both manufacturing and service to the level of the US, assuming that we stop growing, should take most of the gold on the planet. Anyone know if the ECB is buying lots of gold? Live small.

Black Blade

(01/23/2003; 10:00:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95328)

****$370.10****

The US dollar is grossly overvalued due to years of an artificial "strong dollar" policy. This is unsustainable in the current economic environment so the dollar must continue to weaken. Economic pressures will continue to chip away at dollar strength as energy prices rise and investors flee US based investments. The Federal Reserve will continue to fire up the printing presses devaluing the dollar more. Geopolitical tensions will heat up leading investors to seek safety in precious metals driving the price of gold higher.

- Black Blade

Cometose

(01/23/2003; 10:01:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95329)

*****480.3****

There is a contagious affection from the orient relating to real money ...which is spreading westward to the occident....it's an old world new world thing...it's not what the new world order group had on tap/ but it does appear to be the new world order....The Eurozone will get lit up (the masses buying gold) and then last but not least if there's enough gold to go around....the west US....only after our sold out media trolls have been soundly defeated(and shamed for the lies they make a living telling to enable the theft of their masters) by the actions of individuals whose vote (buying gold) will make an incredible difference.....Vivre le Difference!

Rock

(01/23/2003; 10:02:44 MDT - Msg ID: 95330)

Hippleback "Thanks to All"

Hipple my man your post best describes my feelings too. Its hard not to like you because you add to the quality of these great halls of knowledge and enlightment.

Wow, we were just talking about that critical $360.00 mark and already I can see the rockets gold glare almost bursting in air.

Cheers,

Rock

Black Blade

(01/23/2003; 10:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 95331)

Strong NatGas Draw On Storage

http://highlandenergy.com/agachart.htm
Storage Highlights:

Working gas in storage was 1,985 Bcf as of Friday, January 17, 2003, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 210 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 537 Bcf less than last year at this time and 76 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,061 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 122 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 137 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 4 Bcf below the 5-year average of 564 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 58 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 50 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 15 Bcf. At 1,985 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

Black Blade: This is about what I expected and next week it should be a larger drawdown due to this weeks record cold temperatures.

Magister Aurelius

(01/23/2003; 10:23:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95332)

****404.50*****

I'm guessing that by the end of February gold is going to be crossing back and forth over a $400 resistance level. I think by then the war in Iraq will have begun and the commodities markets will stabilize as the uncertainty of whether a war would happen becomes clear. However, all bets are off the price of gold if two things happen. 1) Japanese banks collapse. 2) The currency devaluation merrygoround continues. If these two things occur, the sky is the limit. But here is my big prediction for once gold crosses the $575 mark. At this point, if the dollar is still declining, watch for Greenspan to meet with the President and then we might see an act of Congress pegging the value of the dollar to the price of gold. A painful step? Yes. But I think they would do it in order to avoid a complete economic collapse.

Knallgold

(01/23/2003; 10:27:41 MDT - Msg ID: 95333)

Belgian

Your rhetorical question today,yes,one has to be blind not to see it.Goldstock investors just can't make the right conclusion of it.I'm not blaming them,it took me also some time.

Whats also interesting about JPM et al. making some bullish forecasts for Gold recently:I'm reminded of an old FOA post where he states it would be actually good when the (paper)POG can rise!It would spell credibility and functionality.The opposite being shorts selling it to the ground-->oblivion-->killing the market.

Goldshares clearly signaling the first cracks in the paperGold arena.

I think the damage is done.

Truthcaster

(01/23/2003; 10:28:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95334)

Silver

Okay what's the deal on silver, gold has been
hot the last few days but silver is not doing
much and now is lower today by five cents an oz.
Does silver not do so well during a war time?
and a weaker dollar? I heard someone say that silver's
not viewed as a PM but as a industrial metal.
So which is it?

Paper Avalanche

(01/23/2003; 10:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95335)

@ Trapper

Greetings Sir Trapper:

You asked how much cash would the Euro block or any other currency need to buy enough gold to allow for the expansion of their money supply. Here is my understanding of how a currency with percentage gold cover (i.e. Euro) would work: There would be no, none, abosolutely zero CB intervention to cap the price of gold in the domoestic currency that has a percentage cover. Thus, if I have a billion euros in circulation and I have 150 euros in gold in reserve (15% cover), and I then double the number of euro notes and, if there is no cap on the POG in the physical euro market, then the market will perform its natural function and re-price gold at the same multiple of the expansion of euro notes and viola! I now have 300 euros in reserve and my 15% cover is maintained. Thus is the concept of FREE GOLD as I understand it.

There is also a second method that could be employed to expand the money supply with a gold cover. I could buy gold instead of simply expanding the notes in circulation and waiting for the POG to catch up. I think of this as a type of ying/yang or push/pull methods of monetary base expansion in a world where gold is the ultimate reserve asset. I believe that the first method would be employed when the political establishment wanted to not only expand the monetary base but also create general price inflation. The second method would not create general price inflation IMHO.

I am sure that I am off base somewhere in my thinking here. But I hope this helps. I would invite all comments to expand on this.

Stay warm!

Paper Avalanche

Paper Avalanche

(01/23/2003; 10:43:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95336)

Oops

should read "150 million euros" - same for "300 million euros"

Pizz

(01/23/2003; 10:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95337)

*******395.1******

Based upon the recent action of some of the PM stocks, it would appear that there might have been some very quick and desperate action by the shorts to cover their positions without spiking themselves into major losses. I am therefore concluding that an imminent rise in gold may be forthcoming. For every action, there is usually a reaction, and sometimes a big one.

Pizz

Mr Gresham

(01/23/2003; 10:53:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95338)

Hipplebeck, abudahhab

H: I second Rock's thoughts: you add much spirit here, and we know you're living on the edge for "honest money". Hey, maybe we'll all get to "pay some bills" soon (my hope, anyway).

abudahhab: Thanks, and good to see you back here.

canamami -- it was good to see your name return among yesterday's posters, too.

Perhaps amidst all the "good" news (or at least good that we hold insurance against much of the bad news), we will more and more remember the original Golden Rule here: Remember how you would like to be treated, as you choose your words to others. There are really no excuses anymore for getting nasty, just a lot of (understandable) excitement!

Christian

(01/23/2003; 11:14:05 MDT - Msg ID: 95339)

(No Subject)

Greenspan-"What is the standard of certification of proof that an exchange must require in order to qualify to be in business. The fact that large quantities of paper silver and gold sold dwarfs production a 1000 times should send alarm bells to any economist or regulator that the books are cooked." Precious metals be it gold, silver, platinum, paladium, or whatever are enduring wealth with the advantage of transportability and convertability to other assets or credit creation as the need arises. Good as Gold or any other precious metal speaks only for the physical metal; a truth lost as often as money, by players in derivative leverage credit banking system. The thing that allows the government or the private for profit FED to intermittenly crush the value of gold or any other metal is their ability to dilute and deverte legitimate precious metal buying intentions with paper substitute that offer the promise of interest based on the leverage used in the fractionalized credit creation system. 95% of all money does not exist in any kind of physical form and the other 5% is in coin, paper tokens with numbers." ---Precious metal be it whatever can be used for industrial use or as warehouse receipts for bank deposits used for fractional reserve banking. Gold is mostly used as a credit creation vehicle. 30,000 of the 32,000+ of available supply was traded on the OTC for that very purpose. The Euro now has the upper hand, because it can sell overseas $'s of no real value and buy gold, which is exactly what is happening. It is not often you can take toilet paper dollars and buy real gold money. The dollar is following the ruble's footsteps. Prices for real things like food, oil, etc will double in the next few years.

Zhisheng

(01/23/2003; 11:30:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95340)

Up into the close!

http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/mc/2003/0122.htmA close near $364.80.

Jim Sinclair yesterday: "If we are trending now, then you abandon the Williams %R and only use the MACD and Momentum for direction. If we are chopping, then you use the Williams %R as if it were the Word of God. We will end the chop the day we close over $363.00. Your first indication will be the move above $361.50 at 1PM in the US. In my opinion it will not be long before that occurs."

RobotGuy

(01/23/2003; 11:36:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95341)

Theoretically,.. shouldn't a dead cat bounce only nine times? - - - Haa!

That would be a triple Elliot cat!

Where does this market's sustain come from? Are people not getting tired of hearing "Looks like the market has hit bottom and is definitely in recovery mode"? Keep dumping your money in, it's bound to do something. Oh,.. here's a good one I heard the oher day,- -"now is definitely the best possible time to start investing in some of these budding technology companies" - - - sure, if they're developing cheap highly destructive hand grenades. What is it about us 'westerners' that makes us feel like we're not subject to long dry spells? Are we all just too good for that?

Got the cat by the tail?
Hopefully you're not in a burlap sack filled with rocks.

Cheers!

Your friendly neighborhood RobotGuy.

Daniel Druff

(01/23/2003; 11:37:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95342)

Peace And The Short Term Price of Gold

What if Saddam goes into Exile?Greetings:

Oh how our gold market is changing. Just this morning I heard on CNBC that Morgan Stanley is recommending a gold (stock) position of 4% to 5%. Can you believe it?

Wasn't it just last summer that their most prominent and likable analyst, Mr. Barton Biggs, recommended the same thing, only to recant a few days later? Gold subsequently sold off for several months. But today is ANOTHER day.

Mr. Biggs tendered his resignation to Morgan Stanley earlier in the week and will be continually kicking himself in the butt for "his" recantation. [I think the fix was in and the top brass tipped him off...we may never know unless Barton's Memoirs are published.] Talk about a lost opportunity! The gentleman would be right up their with James Sinclair, IF ONLY...

Even the least studied of students should be able to see that the growing supply of fiat far exceeds the growing(?) supply of gold in any form. Morgan Stanley's '5% Solution', not IF but WHEN it becomes fashionable, will contribute to a gold rush unlike anything the world has ever seen. Simply put, there just ain't that much of the stuff.

However, we must assume that our monetary masters are not going down without a fight. We must be vigilant while humble. Tenacious while leery. And expect incredible volatility brought on by "out of the blue" events. For instance: Saddam goes into exile...Gentlemen, the leveraged players in gold are going to get smeared. At least until the proponents of Nuke the North Koreans come on the scene...and they certainly will. Be careful...and keep a few bucks ready just in case an opportunity develops which might improve your position.

Thanks to USAGold most of us are already beautifully positioned. BTW, I'm looking for a few $1 gold coins to round out a small collection...MK, can you help me?

Thank you

Mr. Bill

(01/23/2003; 12:15:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95343)

@Paper Avalanche msg#: 95335

The euro has zero gold cover. The 15% of reserves applies only to the less than 50 billion euros that the ECB (the EU equivalent of the Fed) has as reserves. These reserves do not back the euro. These reserves are not a gold cover for the euro.

Euros are actually created by the local banks within each of the EU countries. These banks are based on a very similar fractional reserve system as the US banks except that their reserve requirements are only 2%. The national banks (which actually own the ECB) also have gold as part of their reserves. Their gold holdings average 30% of their reserves. This gold also is not backing for any euro creation, nor is it used as a gold cover for any euro creation.

The amount of euros that can be created is virtually limitless, same as the US dollar. And as long as the greater fool exists, the euro will do fine.

Magister Aurelius

(01/23/2003; 12:35:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95344)

Re: Silver prices

Truthcaster, one of the big reasons silver is not advancing along with other PMs is that there is an insane amount of paper out being traded. The problem is that the paper is not backed up with the physical silver needed, except that people think it is at the moment. However, over the last couple of months, the big exchanges have had to delay delivery on contracts... this tends to show that the "reserves" of metal available for physical delivery are non-existent. Like gold, these shenanigans can't go on forever and since silver gets used up in applications the physical supply continues to dwindle. Look for big moves in silver eventually...

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/23/2003; 12:39:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95345)

Hard assets... Easy access!

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

"For as long as cannons have thundered,
they have echoed
with the sound of men yearning for gold."

-- R. Strauss

Paper Avalanche

(01/23/2003; 13:02:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95346)

@ Mr. Bill

Thank you for that clarification. Given those facts, my previous analysis is flawed. I have much still to learn. That is why I do not frequently delve into the more involved and complex issues discussed on this fine forum. For I am still a student and not a teacher (beer doesn't help the situation much either). I will stick with the easy one liners until better informed.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche

balzac

(01/23/2003; 13:10:19 MDT - Msg ID: 95347)

GOLD SHARES

Barrick is up about 5% today and the rest of the mining stocks about 3%, looks like paper gold is starting to move.

Balzac

ski

(01/23/2003; 13:19:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95348)

Silver price .....

Why is silver lagging gold? Why hasn't silver moved more as more evaporates everyday?

An authoritive sounding person on another site recently mentioned that the COMEX short postion by the big commercials is now 450 million ounces. I do not have any particular expertise in COMEX issues so check this out for yourselves.

However it does occur to me that the EFFECT of this apparent short selling HAS ALREADY IMPACTED THE POS. The damage has already been done!!! Therefore, from this point forward, true market forces will begin to move silver up once again UNLESS ADDITIONAL OUNCES ARE SHORTED. It's somewhat like watching an old western with the good guy facing certain death ... except for one small detail .... he has counted the bullets that the bad has used and he knows the bad guy is out of ammo.

Additionally, much is said here about the unwinding of gold leases, but what about unwinding of silver leases? At what price does this begin to become an issue?

I also keep in mind that none of this will matter come ZERO STOCKPILE DAY IN SILVER. ...... imho

Casey

(01/23/2003; 13:32:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95349)

**** 370.3 ****

I continue to think that at some point people are going to clue into the fact that something may serious stink within the economic halls of their government-managed economy. As the dollar continues it's free-fall coupled with the myriad other economic tribulations that lay ahead, people may just begin to talk and think about gold being, in fact, as was once commonly known by previous generations, to be quite superior to government paper. Or maybe I'm just dreaming. ;)

ElGordo

(01/23/2003; 13:57:01 MDT - Msg ID: 95351)

About silver

There is a saying I came across, I don't know how accurate
it is - but it goes like this:

First goes Platinum- now at $658
Then goes Gold- now rising to $400
Then goes Silver

Silver is the last to GO

Platinum has had a terrific run,
NOW its gold's turn to run
Then poor man's gold (silver) should have a run
Be patient, its not silver's turn yet

Just a thought

Mr. Bill

(01/23/2003; 13:59:05 MDT - Msg ID: 95352)

@Paper Avalanche msg#: 95346

It is still better to get ones feet wet. And until you declare your understanding, and allow for scrutiny, you may be unknowingly spinning in place. Whereas clarification allows you to move forward based upon a solid framework. But if your voice is not heard, no movement occurs.

Magister Aurelius

(01/23/2003; 14:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95353)

Venezuela

Has anybody found any other news items about Venezuela shutting down its currency exchange? I saw one blurb from ABC news and then absolute silence everywhere else. This may be a smoking gun propelling those golden bullets even higher....

Waverider

(01/23/2003; 14:12:30 MDT - Msg ID: 95354)

VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlFor your information and enjoyment...

Alaskan hunter

(01/23/2003; 14:12:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95355)

Greetings from a new poster

****359.7****

Greetings from up north and Happy Birthday to George!

I've been keeping an eye on this and several other sites for quie some time now and couldn't resist the temptation of a shot at a gold coin.

I'd just like to share one thought. I've noticed quite a few doom and gloomers out there (and I'm one) and I just can't help but wonder if you plan on sitting this out in suburbia or if you have some plan to "bug out" at some point. As a self proclaimed "doom and gloomer" I sure as hell wouldn't want to be sipping cappacino in a NY cafe when I find out that the banking system has shut down (of course, it will only be temporary).

Have a nice day!

-Ron

ElGordo

(01/23/2003; 14:14:56 MDT - Msg ID: 95356)

Forbes: Russia snubs the buck

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/01/23/rtr856955.htmlRUSSIA SNUBS THE DOLLAR

Also knocking the dollar lower was news Russia's central bank would raise the level of its non-dollar reserves because of low returns on the U.S. currency.

"It always makes people nervous because there has been a lot of talk about central banks diversifying away from the dollar and news of this will certainly add to that," said Steven Saywell, currency strategist at Citibank in London.

But Marc Chandler, currency strategist at HSBC in New York, said the effects of Russia's move on the dollar was likely to be muted. Because its central bank had been increasing its level of reserves overall, both its purchases of dollars and of euros and other currencies were likely to rise, he said.

SHIOKAWA SURPRISES

The dollar also was easier against the yen, pushed down by comments by Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa.
Shiokawa said that a stronger yen was not good for domestic businesses but that the government should not actively intervene in the foreign exchange market.

Dealers said the remarks eased speculation about yen-selling intervention by the Bank of Japan in the near-term and opened the door for some dollar selling. But most expected the BOJ would show its hand if the market became unruly.
____
If you need to check news go to Google news

Rock

(01/23/2003; 14:20:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95357)

Unemployment Benefits Extended Twice In Some Cases

Hi all, isn't this an exciting time to own a winner, especially in a day where people are losing the shirts off their backs those with gold are showing good profits. I bought in at 290.00 an ounce and waited 5 years to see this days like these. I told my wife there'd be days like this.

While at the gym yesterday a friend told me his friend who was also out of work just expired his three month extension and reapplied recently and he got 6 more months of benefits!

Finding that hard to believe I took a ride over to the unemployment office since its less than 5 minutes from my house. I just got back. The lady told me they are extending benefits if you fit a certain criteria, she told me to call them and speak to the operator. I tried calling late in the day but the recording said due to high volume call back tomorrow.

For those like Blackblade's geologist friend who expired his extension benefits they may have another 6 months coming, wouldn't that be nice?

Cheers,

Rock

R Powell

(01/23/2003; 14:21:54 MDT - Msg ID: 95358)

Zhisheng // technical help needed

You just quoted Sinclair as follows...

Jim Sinclair yesterday: "If we are trending now, then you abandon the Williams %R and only use the MACD and Momentum for direction. If we are chopping, then you use the Williams %R as if it were the Word of God. We will end the chop the day we close over $363.00. Your first indication will be the move above $361.50 at 1PM in the US. In my opinion it will not be long before that occurs."

I guess today's close means that Mr. Sinclair will be watching the MACD and Momentum indicators and not the Williams %R. Especially because Sinclair has been a lot more right than wrong of late and since he may know more about this market than most so-called experts, I'm now wondering what those MACD and Momentum indictors are predicting. Can you discipher them for us? My technical skills do not extend much beyond support and resistence.
Can anyone "read" these signs??
Thanks
Rich

ElGordo

(01/23/2003; 14:25:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95359)

Bad loans growing fast

PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla., January 22, 2003 - Nonperforming loans at the nation's 9,414 banks and thrifts reached $68.9 billion at September 30, 2002, representing a 16.8 percent increase over the $58.9 billion in nonperforming loans reported one year prior, according to Weiss Ratings, Inc., the nation's leading independent provider of ratings and analyses of financial services companies, mutual funds, and stocks. From a historical perspective, this is the highest dollar amount of nonperforming loans in the banking industry since 1992 when the figure reached $79.2 billion following the savings and loan (S&L) crisis.

Driving the increase in nonperforming loans, troubled commercial loans surged 22.7 percent over the last year to $33.8 billion at the end of the third quarter. Meanwhile, nonperforming residential mortgage loans climbed 13.4 percent to $13.8 billion during the same period.
_____________
Japanese banking system up to their keister in bad loans.
Print or implode.

TownCrier

(01/23/2003; 14:31:47 MDT - Msg ID: 95360)

Magister Aurelius, news about the Venezuela suspension in currency trading

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/2220031/default.htmlI covered this briefly in yesterday's discussion. Click the url above, then scroll down to the following post for more info.

R.
---------------
TownCrier (1/22/03; 14:22:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 95231)
Another example why you need to buy your gold BEFORE an actual crisis

HEADLINE: Venezuela Suspends Currency Market

[etc...(see post)]

mikal

(01/23/2003; 14:40:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95361)

@RPowell

Although I have heard that the moving average was looking good all along for some time now, I believe it is looking better still. With the possibility of a return to more sideways trading down the road. Momentum? Without looking at the chart, volume is up significantly. This is good enough for this buy-and-holder. Cheers

Zhisheng

(01/23/2003; 14:44:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95362)

R Powell (#: 95358)

I posted Sinclair's remarks to indicate that he thinks the market is now trending up. I dare not comment on the MACD and Momentum indicators, for I don't follow them. If you look back to some of his previous articles, I believe you will find some explanation.

My modus operandi is to attempt to understand the fundamentals, set up positions, and stick to them until I perceive the fundamentals have changed. I don't have the skill or the time to pop in and out. I do take what Sinclair has to say about the direction of the market seriously---because of his experience, the acuteness of his intellect, our usual agreement on the fundamentals, his knowledge of the major players in the game and how it is played, and the recent accuracy of his predictions.

Sorry I can't help.

Truthcaster

(01/23/2003; 14:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 95363)

Thanks for the info on silver you all

One thing I did notice was that after the silver
market closed for the day a few of the silver
mining stocks came back in to the black so maybe
the sell off in silver wasn't as bad as it could
have been. Thanks for all the in put you all. ;o)

Magister Aurelius

(01/23/2003; 15:06:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95364)

Thanks!

Thanks TownCrier! It's amazing, either the main media feel that Venezuela's crisis is too trivial to cover or they really want to brush this one under the rug. Here and a link on another site were the only places I could find the story. TV news? Foxnews? Moneyline? Didn't have it. Neither did the radio. Bad bad mojo is coming down.

Alaskan... I agree with you that a bugout plan is a good insurance policy. If we get a hyperinflation on a Weimar scale, then the urban environment is going to degrade in a hurry.

Gandalf the White

(01/23/2003; 15:17:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95365)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !UPDATE (from the FIELD!)
as of 15:05 Thursday 01/23/03 Denver Time !

THANKS for the "BATCH" of new Entries and NEW POSTERS TOO !
<;-)

QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003:

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 = $358.1 + $7.0 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a Low = $350.0
1/17/03 = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a Low = $355.3 and Sir ROCK is "King of the Hill" !
1/21/03 = $357.5 + $0.7 with a HIGH = $358.1 and a Low = $353.4 and Sir Goldenboy is "KING of the HILL" !
1/22/03 = $359.9 + $2.4 with a HIGH = $360.4 and a Low = $357.8 and Sir Henri is NOW "KING of the HILL!"
===
ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

**** $750.0 **** Caradoc (1/17/03; 10:49:20MT - msg#: 94778

**** $480.3 **** Cometose (1/23/03; 10:01:34MT - msg#: 95329

**** $426.2 **** drawmax (1/20/03; 08:09:53MT - msg#: 94990)

**** $419.4 **** The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - msg#: 94798

**** $404.5 **** Magister Aurelius (1/23/03; 10:23:42MT - msg#: 95332

**** $403.5 **** misetich (1/17/03; 18:25:29MT - msg#: 94815

**** $400.0 **** Sundeck (1/17/03; 04:25:05MT - msg#: 94737

**** $396.4 **** Bulldog (1/17/03; 20:05:57MT - msg#: 94825

**** $395.1 **** Pizz (1/23/03; 10:48:12MT - msg#: 95337

**** $390.0 **** Galerider (01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - msg#: 94724)

**** $387.5 **** knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - msg#: 94800

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (1/17/03; 05:12:59MT - msg#: 94738

**** $383.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - msg#: 94791

**** $382.5 **** Hipplebeck (1/18/03; 06:47:33MT - msg#: 94850

**** $380.2 **** pinetree (1/23/03; 09:04:28MT - msg#: 95322

**** $379.1 **** ha_tey_o (1/17/03; 07:24:56MT - msg#: 94741

**** $378.9 **** erayboy (1/17/03; 03:05:04MT - msg#: 94729
**** $378.8 **** miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - msg#: 94805

**** $378.1 **** a nation of one (01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - msg#: 94720

**** $376.2 **** GoldenSun (1/23/03; 09:26:38MT - msg#: 95325

**** $375.5 **** balzac (1/18/03; 14:15:59MT - msg#: 94880

**** $375.0 **** Mountain Top (1/19/03; 10:56:32MT - msg#: 94937

**** $374.6 **** harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - msg#: 94792

**** $374.1 **** Slowman (1/17/03; 06:10:05MT - msg#: 94739
**** $374.0 **** Zhisheng (1/17/03; 09:53:34MT - msg#: 94762

**** $373.5 **** kahulik (01/20/03; 11:08:21MT - msg#: 94998

**** $372.2 **** Houston (1/19/03; 10:30:11MT - msg#: 94934

**** $372.0 **** OZ (1/17/03; 02:14:25MT - msg#: 94727
**** $371.9 **** silvercollector (1/22/03; 05:15:12MT - msg#: 95191
**** $371.8 **** Time For GOLD (1/22/03; 11:17:36MT - msg#: 95211

**** $371.2 **** Achilles (1/23/03; 09:27:54MT - msg#: 95326

**** $370.9 **** Richman (1/22/03; 11:18:21MT - msg#: 95212

**** $370.5 **** VanRip (1/17/03; 07:59:23MT - msg#: 94747

**** $370.3 **** Casey (01/23/03; 13:32:42MT - msg#: 95349

**** $370.1 **** Black Blade (1/23/03; 10:00:48MT - msg#: 95328

**** $369.9 **** Ole Man (1/18/03; 23:30:28MT - msg#: 94912

**** $369.5 **** Truthcaster (1/23/03; 09:18:53MT - msg#: 95323

**** $369.2 **** slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - msg#: 94796

**** $369.0 **** wiley (01/21/03; 12:21:41MT - msg#: 95102

**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750

**** $368.2 **** Zelts (01/21/03; 07:34:30MT - msg#: 95080

**** $367.4 **** Kagalaska (01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - msg#: 94721

**** $366.0 **** White Rose (01/21/03; 09:29:59MT - msg#: 95093

**** $365.2 **** pilgrims_gold (1/18/03; 10:01:47MT - msg#: 94863

**** $365.0 **** monTROZ (01/20/03; 12:50:24MT - msg#: 95005

**** $364.2 **** Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - msg#: 94755

**** $363.0 **** luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - msg#: 94795

**** $362.5 **** EagleOne (1/18/03; 14:02:13MT - msg#: 94877

**** $362.3 **** Renny (1/18/03; 05:15:47MT - msg#: 94848

**** $362.0 **** Albatros (01/21/03; 07:48:42MT - msg#: 95081

**** $361.1 **** Lothar of the Hill People (01/20/03; 13:51:40MT - msg#: 95013

**** $360.8 **** Liberty Head (01/20/03; 19:45:52MT - msg#: 95040

**** $360.5 **** Felix the Cat (1/20/03; 03:35:20MT - msg#: 94984

**** $360.0 **** Henri (1/18/03; 15:28:31MT - msg#: 94886

**** $359.7 **** Alaskan hunter (01/23/03; 14:12:45MT - msg#: 95355

**** $359.1 **** 24carat (1/18/03; 16:10:36MT - msg#: 94889

**** $358.0 **** makcumka (1/20/03; 05:44:13MT - msg#: 94987

**** $357.6 **** goldenboy (01/21/03; 09:16:39MT - msg#: 95092

**** $348.0 **** Topaz (1/17/03; 03:06:48MT - msg#: 94730
===

INVALID ENTRIES
---
NONE !!!!!!
===

Cavan Man

(01/23/2003; 15:51:03 MDT - Msg ID: 95366)

Hey, we got Yemen!

Washington, Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. can muster a ``robust'' military coalition if needed to disarm Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said, dismissing opposition from France and Germany.

The Iraq (mis)adventure is doing for the world (in the short term) what the Euro could never do.

Hipplebeck: Get a grip lad.

Christian

(01/23/2003; 15:58:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95367)

(No Subject)

What raw material or service income can the U.S. use to make a profit by production? What do we have what other people want? We now import more agricultural products then we export. We sell gold as an export, but we do not make a profit on it. We sell wood chips for export for less then it costs to produce. Bush 1 made some income on the Middle East war. What do we have as income? The only income we have is ever more debt which is easy to acquire but very hard to repay. Ater all how do you pay $100 debt with $5.00? Why is the stock of the Federal Reserve not available for purchase by our countrymen? Why is there no prohibition on financial slavery or involuntary monetary servitute?

Bulldog

(01/23/2003; 16:15:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95368)

Silver lethargy

AlaskanBoth gold and silver and probably a lot more markets are clearly manipulated. Ken Roberts used to promote a silver trading program which he called his insurance program. I don't imagine that it was very successful over the past few years given that silver has trouble penetrating $483.
I do buy physical silver but is it ever heavy. Frankly, gold is much easier to store. At today's price, I have to pay about $600CAN. for an ounze of gold. I could probably buy 60 oz. of silver Maples for the same price. Silver prices will explode once WS has their fill of gold and takes on silver, after all, Gates, Soros and Buffet are already there. It will be an easy sell. I personally think silver/gold is a lifetime buy at present.

To the new poster from Alaska--I don't think you have to worry about most of these posters' plans in the event of economic chaos. Most of us have suitable alternative lifestyles available and not all those locales need be in Alaska. You are a very fortunate fellow.

CoBra(too)

(01/23/2003; 16:35:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95369)

With all the Quacks in the Media linking the recent Performance

of GOLD to the looming war against Iraq, qualifying it as a short therm phenomena. - Even the Gold shares don't confirm the move - as this would be proving their thesis, along comes respected Richard Russel:
Gold -- The operative concept is simple enough although few people believe it. What's the operative concept? Here it is --

GOLD IS IN A PRIMARY BULL MARKET! --

And that's what it is. This time all the fundamentals are in place for - (let me borrow a quote from Saddam's last brush with another Bush) the "Mother of all Gold Bull Markets"!

Salaam cb2

PS: CM - Wow - all of Y.?
PS: Mikal, I read you on my horizon, too and best to you.

a nation of one

(01/23/2003; 16:43:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95370)

bright future

Looks like Jim Sinclair could be right about gold going to 372 on this leg. The recent pattern of repeated small ups -following small downs- doesn't seem to be on the chart the past two years. To me, gold still looks unusually strong.

R Powell

(01/23/2003; 16:56:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95371)

Mikal // Zhisheng

Thanks guys.
Zhisheng, your description of your trading procedure are exactly the same as mine. We use basic fundamental analysis to determine a good probability of the price of a specific item moving either up or down in a reasonable time frame. I have been called crazy by day traders who disdain this approach but I'm not watching every tick to try to scalp a few bucks. This is, however, how most markets are traded and one reason (imho) why the POS has not responded to the ongoing deficit. If I'm correct in this, then the probability of a huge price move is increased. The potential exists for a move not conceivable in many other commodities. Gold and silver, in this regard (among others) are truly unique.
I have been thoroughly enjoying the uptrend in gold but still await something from silver. It may well require the patience of Job before it happens. I hope not.
One broker I asked concerning silver's price opined that most traders have no knowledge of any fundamentals and would probably hedge any long gold positions by shorting silver! I believe when POS starts a serious run upward, a good advance may come very quickly, moving like orange juice when south Florida freezes.
Rich

sector

(01/23/2003; 16:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95372)

@Paper Avalanche and Mr Bill The Euro and Gold...

...it's even more shakey than Mr. Bill has impliedThe central banks, including the big European banks [Except France] have loaned out or swapped 16,000 tonnes [Half] of their gold so even IF the Euro were "Backed" by a specified amount of gold, the true "Backing" would be suspect until these central banks reported individually their gold swaps and loans which the vast majority don't.

The balance sheet item is "Gold and Gold Receivables" grouped together so that the world won't realize the scam that has been perpetrated by swapping for paper, half their citizen's gold.

Moreover, the idea that a gold loan is a "Receivable" is fraudulent. It is a contingent liability with no real loss limit. Should the gold price rise, the cost to enter the market and retrieve that loaned gold would further drive the price higher. Accurate accounting seems to have flown the coop when it comes to gold.

Paper Avalanche

(01/23/2003; 17:14:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95373)

@ Black Blade - CNBC Report

I just caught the last part of a report on the 7:00 news. Joe Witty, meteorologist for CNBC, showed a graph that showed the average home heating costs for the past few years. Again, I just caught the tail end of the piece, but I believe that the graph showed 1999 home heating prices averaging $520 (I guess over the six month winter period) and the 2003 home heating prices averaging $1,060.

If I didn't have so much blind faith in the nice people on TV and the gubmint I would tend to question the 3% annual inflation numbers over the last few years. I am a good sheeple and do not question such things.

Paper Avalanche

Mr. Bill

(01/23/2003; 17:49:47 MDT - Msg ID: 95374)

@sector msg#: 95372

Any EU gold, whether sitting swapped in West Point, or being held as collateral of last resort for all of those third party bullion bank sales, still has nothing to do with the euro. And how can the citizens be pissed. It is not their gold anyway.

ElGordo

(01/23/2003; 17:51:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95375)

Bomb blast in Venezuela

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - A suspected bomb killed one person and injured 14 when it exploded Thursday near a huge rally in Caracas attended by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and hundreds of thousands of supporters protesting against a crippling opposition strike.

Left-winger Chavez, who is resisting opposition calls to resign and hold early elections, went ahead with the rally despite the blast, which occurred several blocks away from where he was greeting supporters. He and the crowds around him were not immediately aware that it had taken place.

Caracas Fire Chief Rodolfo Briceno told Reuters a 45-year-old man was killed on the spot and 14 other people were taken to hospital, most suffering from shrapnel injuries.

"It was apparently an explosive device," he said. No one claimed responsibility and police were investigating.

ElGordo

(01/23/2003; 18:04:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95376)

Skilled workers vow strike to continue until Chavez resigns

CARACAS, Venezuela, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Venezuela's opposition, fighting a campaign to oust President Hugo Chavez, said Thursday they had extended for a 54th day their strike aimed at pressing the populist leader to resign.

The stoppage, which began on Dec. 2, has slashed Venezuela's vital oil production and output, rattled energy markets and driven the world's No. 5 crude exporter deeper into recession.

"We continue with this national civic protest...We must brace ourselves for this fight," anti-Chavez business leader Julio Brazon told reporters.

Strikers, including state oil firm PDVSA workers, say they will strike until Chavez resigns, calls elections and reinstates fired oil workers. Some blue-collar oil workers have returned to work. But support for the strike remains strong among skilled workers at oilfields and refineries, and managers.

Chavez, a former paratrooper who was elected in 1998 and survived a coup, has refused to step down. He says he is defeating the strike using troops and replacement workers. Strikers dismiss his claims, but oil production has crept up since the stoppage began.

Sovereign

(01/23/2003; 18:05:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95377)

Hippleback--Re: the Euro Msg. 95304

God bless your honest soul.

What you say is the truth itself but, unfortunately, many out there are trying to piggyback the Euro on gold's assent (when they are not secretly trying to break gold's back, that is.)

I, too, find it extremely disconcerting the rationalizations of certain "internet dwellers" who say that they are not your friends.

Take care

Sovereign

Pizz

(01/23/2003; 18:06:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95378)

@Sector

Sorry, but i have to throw in a correction to you last post.

A gold loan is a receivable. The transaction that makes it a receivable is the exchange of either a tangible or intangible asset in return for a promise to pay. The promise to pay can be in any form contracted, i.e. return of the asset, fiat, etc.

A contingent liability is a liability that may or may not happen and usually the amount has to be estimated because the outcome will be in the future with damages/payment amount to be determined in the future. A lawsuit for a to be determined amount is the best example.

Pizz

Aura

(01/23/2003; 18:08:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95379)

(No Subject)

http://www.newswire.ca/releases/January2003/22/c2347.htmlCentral Fund of Canada to buy 22,400 Oz. AU and 1,120,000 Oz. AG. The sooner the better!

Pizz

(01/23/2003; 18:18:30 MDT - Msg ID: 95380)

Aura - re: Central fund of Canada

How long do you think it will be before a few more funds are started?

Nice chunk(s) of physical coming out of the market. The gold and silver snowballs are cresting the hill and starting to gain momentum down a rather steepening slope.

The shorts are going to be carrying around Malox in five gallon containers very shortly. . .

Thx for the post,

Pizz

ElGordo

(01/23/2003; 18:20:23 MDT - Msg ID: 95381)

Nat Gas too expensive to burn for electricity!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/030123/utilities_aes_williams_1.htmlNEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - High natural gas prices are putting a squeeze on power plant operators who are finding they can make more money selling the fuel to the market than burning it to generate electricity.
-----
Energy industry analysts have issued recent warnings that natural gas prices could hit $8 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) before the end of the winter, roughly three times what they fetched a year ago, if East Coast temperatures remain below normal much longer.

Gas prices in New York City hit a two-year high of $18.50 per mmBtu Wednesday on the coldest weather seen here in years.

Natural gas is skyrocketing because supplies are shrinking and drilling activity has not yet caught up with the rising demand linked to the cold snap.

Power plant operators typically do not discuss operations at their facilities, but energy traders generally agree gas-fired units have been dropped from the grid in favor of the usually bigger and cheaper coal-fired and nuclear units.

Until the demand for power eases or natural gas supplies increase, other plant operators may decide to idle their gas plants rather than waste the fuel by burning it.
________
Waste the fuel? They must not have a great demand for elec.
Wait till Summer. If its HOT-prices will go sky high.

ElGordo

(01/23/2003; 18:34:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95382)

Japanese banks could trigger a depression

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1042491122829Moves by Japan's largest banks to raise capital by selling preferred securities to companies with which they maintain close relations increase the risk of a systemic banking crisis, Standard & Poor's, the credit rating agency, said on Thursday.
-------
The rating agency on Thursday drew special attention to the proposed��1,000bn issue by Mizuho, a large proportion of which is expected to be taken up by Dai-Ichi Mutual Life Insurance, which is related to the bank and is its largest shareholder with a 4.02 per cent stake.

S&P said it had placed the insurer, which is rated A-, on Creditwatch Negative, due to its "substantial exposure and concentration risks to Mizuho relative to its capital base".
_______________
If Japan has to sell US bonds to cover banks, it could start
a rush for the exits. Dollar would tank. Global meltdown.

Gandalf the White

(01/23/2003; 18:37:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95383)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

"KING of the HILL" up-date !! <;-)---
COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !

QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003:

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 = $358.1 + $7.0 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a Low = $350.0
1/17/03 = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a Low = $355.3 and Sir ROCK is "King of the Hill" !
1/21/03 = $357.5 + $0.7 with a HIGH = $358.1 and a Low = $353.4 and Sir Goldenboy is "KING of the HILL" !
1/22/03 = $359.9 + $2.4 with a HIGH = $360.4 and a Low = $357.8 and Sir Henri is NOW "KING of the HILL!"
1/23/03 = $364.6 + $4.7 with a HIGH = $367.7 and a Low = $360.0 and ... WOWSERS .. A TIE !!
..........................................BOTH Sir monTROZ & Sir Rock are "KINGS of the Hill !!!"

The Invisible Hand

(01/23/2003; 19:05:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95384)

Oil war, gold war or currency war?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2689801.stmSnip:
France and Germany have expressed strong resistance to military action, and China and Russia on Thursday both voiced deep reservations.
===
Sorry, I didn't read Ferdinand Lips, but how come, Euroland, China and Russia don't have the same problems as the US of A and non-Euro member, the UK? Why is it that the three wars have the same opponents? I would have thought that alliances would shift within/between the wars. But no, always the same antagonists? Isn't that strange?

sector

(01/23/2003; 19:40:59 MDT - Msg ID: 95385)

@pizz On the Contingent liabilty of gold loans

..it is always assumed that the "Loaned" [Read sold for cantango] gold metal wiill be returned......as the associated legislatures or parliaments have not given their authorization to accept debt in return for an asset that inherently has no debt.

The central bank "loan" assets are degraded and become liabilities by the market sale and subsequent change of title of those metallic assets

In order for the loan to be returned by the lessor who has sold his/her "Borrowed" gold, market contingencies must first be dealt with. The market must be entered and or another source of metal must be found and purchased with debt [paper].

Certainly one could accept a paper settlement if one had full autonomy over the bullion. But even THAT has political problems [Ask Gordon Brown and Sir Eddie George about the Bank of England' "auctions"]. They are getting a parliamentary hose job daily.

Sure, the central bank can hold the lessor responsible in court but the vagaries of law suggest that the gold lender should have known that it's return would be problematic in a rising price regime. Thus, the lender has a responsibility to mark these loans as liabilities since, once the gold is sold it enters a different asset class.

No...there are central banks [A distinct minority] that treat their gold loans/swaps as liabilities and rightfully say so in their annual reports.

physicalman

(01/23/2003; 19:42:03 MDT - Msg ID: 95386)

silver-all

Hi again everyone. Will post a little more now that i've licked this pneumonia. My thoughts on silvers lagging performance. It is very possible that the game being played with the large paper short position is to keep as long as possible a favorable accumulation price for physical silver. As long as spot stays close to the futures on silver i believe this is the deal. Most of us know that very soon there will be a severe shortage of ag. for industrial uses even if the economy slows considerably. There is just to large of a gap between production/ recycling and demand. Total silver usage for coinage production in 2001 was 17 million oz. Add another 10 million in demand for investment bars and rounds and you can see with a 10 million a month shortage even with investment demand at zero there would be a 100 million per year shortage of silver.
Another thing that bodes well for silver for the long term is that silver is found mostly in epithermal deposits, that is closer to the surface than gold. So where as only 7 to 8% of all placer and lode gold on or near the surface has been discovered in the last 5500 years it is estimated that 65 to 70% of the most economical silver has been mined and/or discovered.
Gold production est. 4.3 billion oz.
Silver production est. 40.5 billion oz.
All gold ever mined still around est. 85 to 90%
All silver ever mined still around est. 12 to 16%
Out of all the gold left probably 65 to 70% is still in the hands of large players (Central banks/Govts. and the Super Rich) Out of all the silver still around i would est. that only 10% is still in the hands of large players (which includes Comex stocks) It is most probable that in the not too distant future that you will see a perpetual shortage of two items that are essential to a modern industrial world. Silver and Energy
Also gold as it is most critical for international trade in a world with burning fiat. We have seen nothing yet in both metals as for what is to come. Silver is requiring the patience of Job, but that patience will be rewarded. The historical ratio for au./ag. in ancient times was 7-1 to 10-1. In earlier industrial times was 16-1. Up until near the gold confiscation and revaluation of 1933 the US govt. spread was 16-1. Now it is sitting at nearly 80-1.
This will not last! It is my very strong belief that the large players yet to be seen are using the paper game to accumulate as the percentage gain will be larger long term when au./ag. spreads close to historical standards.
These are not exact/exacts only estimates but from 35 years of experience in physical PM's
As always JMVHO,DYODD All welcomed to respond

The Invisible Hand

(01/23/2003; 19:55:04 MDT - Msg ID: 95387)

It's not the strength of the euro, stupid!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2688329.stmThursday, 23 January, 2003, 15:33 GMT
Gold price hits new six-year high

SNIP:
Investors have been buying gold largely because the main alternative, the dollar, is so weak.
==
From the BBC, that's the British Broadcasting Corporation.
Britain = UK, that's a non-euro-member.

sector

(01/23/2003; 19:57:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95388)

@Mr. Bill -- We agree that the Euro has nothing to do with gold...

...except that euro area members had to send the ECB some......to get into the euro club.

On the citizen's gold. A profligate government that sells or loses outright valuable assets autonomously as the UK did pisses LOTS of people off.

Mr. Bill, you seem to be saying that a country's assets are owned only by the government bureaucrats that manage them. That seems a bit over-the-top.

The US cenrtral bank got the gold in the first place by offering miners convertable paper for it. Thereafter the government cancelled the convertability aspect. One can argue whether this cancellation was fair or legal but to assert that the nation's gold never belonged to the people seems a stretch.

Would you be pissed if the Fed sold Florida?

ElGordo

(01/23/2003; 19:58:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95389)

War within weeks

The message from the Bush camp: 'It's war within weeks'

� Washington now concentrating on timing
� State of union address to 'turn up the heat'
� Blair faces nightmare scenario over war decision

Julian Borger in Washington, Ewen MacAskill and Simon Tisdall
Friday January 24, 2003

The Guardian

President George Bush is determined to go to war with Saddam Hussein in the next few weeks, without UN backing if necessary, according to authoritative sources in Washington and London.

The US president is "to turn up the heat" in his state of the union address on Tuesday.

"The pressure comes from President Bush and it is felt all the way down," a European official said. "They're talking about weeks, not months. Months is a banned word now."

Mr Bush wanted the US secretary of state, Colin Powell, to force the issue of military action by presenting evidence of Saddam Hussein's violations of UN resolutions immediately after weapons inspectors give their report to the UN on Monday. In Washington circles such an event is being referred to as the Adlai Stevenson moment.

The "Adlai Stevenson moment" has become Washington shorthand for the US presentation of its intelligence case. Stevenson was the US ambassador to the UN at the time of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, who dramatically confronted the Soviet envoy with vivid aerial photographs of nuclear missiles being unloaded in Cuba.
_____________
State of the union on Tuesday 28th January.
Sale on gold and silver ends soon.

1340cc

(01/23/2003; 20:13:56 MDT - Msg ID: 95390)

My 2cents worth

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen,
During the last BIG gold jump in the early 80s I worked at small independent jewelry store in The Bear Valley shopping center in a Denver burb. It was very "interesting times" to quote ,I think, a gentleman in this chat room. We had to call (before computers) and get the up-to the-min. price of gold. People were NOT happy they could not buy an item for the same price it was two days ago. I think those times are now at hand again.
I want to thank all those on this site for the wonderful work you do. I learn from the not-so-well informed almost as much as I do from the ones like B.B., Sr. G, El G, Wave, White R. etc., etc.... who have been very good about explaining questions asked of them.
The difference for me is that in the 80's I had nothing invested , now I do. Makes it a lot more fun to say the least. What a ride!

P.S. By listening to my boyfriend, Murphy, Sinclair, my broker in Puerto Rico and others like them I more than tripled my money in about 18 months. So maybe Murphy & Sinclair he aren't such a basket cases after all. How'd you do?

Crazy about gold & silver. Got some!

mudr

(01/23/2003; 20:19:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95391)

******$361.70******

The next big development in the GOLD market will be the the realization of an undenyable established trend of the rising price of GOLD by those currently watching on the sidelines wondering where to best invest their money. The first "wave" of us jumped in last February, once it becomes clear that the current POG will not fall then the second of many waves to come will push our baby bull even higher - as they say, "to da mooooon"

sector

(01/23/2003; 20:21:24 MDT - Msg ID: 95392)

FSA to let life insurers cut rates of return

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030124wo15.htm

Yomiuri Shimbun

The Financial Services Agency said Thursday it would submit a bill to the Diet in March to revise the Insurance Business Law to allow life insurance firms to reduce promised rates of return on premium investments by policyholders who sign contracts, to allow the companies to avoid bankruptcy.

The agency floated the plan in the Liberal Democratic Party's subcommittee on insurance issues on Thursday and the LDP members agreed to start discussing the idea in a bid to submit the bill in the ordinary Diet session in early March.

Assumed rates of return are yields guaranteed by insurance firms when policies are purchased. Under a 1996 amendment to the Insurance Business Law, rates for existing policies can only be lowered when insurers go bankrupt .

The agency stressed the need to introduce a new system to help struggling insurance companies by revising the current law, saying insurers have shouldered huge losses from the guaranteed rate of return. Although the promised return on insurance premium investments was initially set as a minimum yield, it has become higher than the actual yield life insurers have been earning on investment assets due to the extended period of low-interest rates and recession.

"We can't help but lower the assumed interest rates. It would be better for policyholders to help life insurance firms survive than to watch them become insolvent," an agency official said at the subcommittee.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The Japanese elders might be getting a bit pissed at the falling insurance policy payments, NKK225 swan dive and Japan's moribund big bank losses.

The age group 60s & 70s hold $600 Billion in fungible savings and could again cause some mini-tsunamis if they make another move to gold kilo-bars as they did last year at this time.

ElGordo

(01/23/2003; 20:26:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95393)

Unemployment world-wide on the rise

�Home > News > Business News > Article

180 Million Jobless Worldwide-UN
Thu January 23, 2003 07:08 PM ET
GENEVA (Reuters) - Unemployment around the world is likely to continue rising after reaching an estimated record 180 million in 2002, up more than 10 percent in two years, the International Labor Organization (ILO) warned on Friday.

Women in export sectors such as textiles, and youth trying to get a first job, have been particularly hard hit by the worsening economic situation, the United Nations agency said.

Another 550 million "working poor" live on $1 or less a day, a return to heights last seen in 1998, according to the ILO report "Global Employment Trends."

"The world employment situation is deteriorating dramatically," said ILO director-general Juan Somavia.

"While tens of millions of people join the ranks of the unemployed and the working poor, uncertain prospects for a global economic recovery make a reversal of this trend unlikely in 2003," he added.

The unemployment rate has rocketed in Latin America and the Caribbean, but it has also risen in other regions as well like Asia, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, the report said.

Unemployment is nearly 10 percent in Latin America -- dragged down by Argentina -- and 18 percent in the Middle East and North Africa. In South-East Asia, where exports have suffered from the information technology slump, it is 6.5 pct.

"Unlike in the past, the informal economy in developing countries was not able to absorb all those who could not find formal employment," the report said.

The informal sector employs some 1.6 billion people worldwide, more than the 1.2 billion who work in the formal sector.

The consequences of the continuing rise in unemployment could be dramatic, according to the ILO, which says at least one billion new jobs must be created during the next decade to meet the U.N. goal of reducing extreme poverty by 50 percent by the year 2015.

"The (U.N.) millennium development goal of halving poverty by 2015 is endangered," Claire Harasty, the report's author, told a news briefing.

"Secondly, there is a risk that an exacerbation of the alarming situation just described may lead to social instability throughout the world," she added.

A U.S.-led war against Iraq, predicted to send crude oil prices soaring from their current $32.70 a barrel, would create more jobless, according to Harasty and Rashid Amjad, acting director of ILO's employment strategy department.

"If investor confidence continues to drop because of a war...that would also have grave consequences for unemployment," Harasty said.

In the Middle East and North Africa, where nearly a quarter of the workforce is unemployed in some countries, war could further aggravate the problems for young people looking for jobs, the economists said.
____________
World-wide depression could lead to a major world war.
Just like the 30's.

Toolie

(01/23/2003; 20:26:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95394)

Greetings all

******$368.7******

The only gold moving event that I expect before February is reaction to the State of the Union address next Tuesday. I look for a little bump up in POG from Europe end the Middle East.

The fighting won't start until February maybe a limited engagement on the first, to secure drop areas for armor. With the attack on Baghdad 1 month later.

The big moving event in our rally is yet to come, the Dollar still has a 20% (or more) fall coming. Very little war premium in the market so far.

The crystal ball is getting poor reception, need a new set of rabbit ears, better stop.

ElGordo

(01/23/2003; 20:52:04 MDT - Msg ID: 95395)

Man itza cold

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/usheat.gifCheck degree map for current temps

Mr. Bill

(01/23/2003; 20:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95396)

@sector msg#: 95388

The euro club members (the national banks) are the owners of the ECB. Even the Bank of England belongs with 14.68%. The only lent the gold to the ECB. In fact the gold has not even left the individual national banks possession.

And the gold belongs to the national banks, not the citizens of the countries. These are private concerns as is the ECB. Individual treaties vary slightly, but basically the countries get a share of the profits of the national banks but the assets remain with the shareholders.

I believe that most of Florida has been sold to Canadians already.

R Powell

(01/23/2003; 21:13:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95397)

Sector // central bank gold

In regards to the 16,000 tonnes of gold "gone" from the central banks... How do you know that it is gone? Have I missed some material here? Whether called an asset, receivable or physical with a temporary lien, where is the real, physical gold?

Let us assume the bank is in the business of making money or profit from paper investments. Mostly this is done by paying less interest on money borrowed to lend than is collected from those who borrow from the bank. The bank borrows cheap, lends high. It costs more to borrow from the bank than the bank will pay in interest for savings, CDs, etc. Therein lies the bank's profit.

Gold leased from central banks on paper represented only a paper gold certificate that could be sold as such (not physical) or transformed into fiat which the bank could loan out at a higher interest rate than the bank had to pay to lease the gold. Lease at 1%, turn into fiat, loan or invest fiat for 5% = 4% profit. Who bought the gold? Someone who wanted a paper gold certificate, probably not a jewelery company or anyone who "uses" or consumes gold.

How does this unwind? When the buyer of the gold wants to sell (because the POG went up) for whatever reason, the bank simply buys back the gold and resells to another buyer, all on paper OR the bank buys back the gold and cancels the lease. It's all that old paper gold certificate game that so many contend holds down the POG.

How can the bank buy back the gold at a higher price? When the bank first sold the leased gold they may have "hedged" the possible risk of POG rising. How? If sold at the current spot of say $300/ounce, then a futures contract bought at $300 or slightly higher (contango) would offset the risk of buying back at a higher price. The contract is held on margin which is returned when the contract is offset or margin is supplied as a lien on other bank assets like perhaps the treasuries the bank bought with the money generated from the gold sale! These would still be earning money for the bank while temporarily held for margin.

All these transactions are on paper settled with fiat gains and/or losses. The bank doesn't care anything about the POG, it only cares that it is paying 1% to lease and making 5% on the money that the gold became, again on paper.

Where has the gold been all this time? It never moved, it is still in the central bank vaults. It was never at risk. For the central bank, only collecting the 1% was at risk; for the selling bank, only the interest rate spread was at risk and only for the paper gold certificate buyer was the actual POG an issue. Will physical delivery ever become an issue? Did the paper gold certificates ever guarantee physical gold? I don't know. Will a significant amount of holders call for physical delivery? I don't know. Can the banks settle on fiat payment if Comex defaults on the hedging futures contract? Probably. Will the certificate holders then have to settle in fiat? What other choice will they have? Most of them never wanted the physical, the delivery or the storage expense. As Aristotle would say, beware of paper gold certificates if you want gold in YOUR possession!

All this time, where is the real, physical gold? In the central banks. How do you know it is "gone"?
Rich

ElGordo

(01/23/2003; 21:27:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95398)

Goodbye Dollar! Goodbye Euro!

http://english.pravda.ru/economics/2002/08/22/35049.htmlThe signing of an agreement between Russia's Central Bank and the People's Bank of China has become the key breakthrough in the banking sphere during Kasyanov's visit to China. The chief bankers have agreed to settle all inter-bank accounts in rubles and yuans starting next year. Negotiating officials say that such a way of settling accounts will be introduced as an experiment to create the necessary mechanisms to settle accounts. What is really very important about this agreement is that Russia and China demonstrated the so-called Eurasian solidarity and decided to give up the dollar and euro in the settlement of their accounts.
__________
No word of this in mainstream US media.
Dinar should be coming soon as well for trading between
nations in the Islamic world.

sector

(01/23/2003; 21:33:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95399)

@Mr. Bill The Canuks do indeed seem to own Florida...by the way they drive down hereabouts

...but much of the central bank gold metal has been... shall we say... "Thinned" Australia hasn't but a few bars left. This, from a photog who was turned away by bank officers when he wished to do a bullion photo-shoot. They just lent and it was sold into the market. Canada loaned nearly all too...it's gone.

The title to all the loaned or swapped gold, on the other hand, sits in someone else's portfolio even if a portion of the bars remain in West Point. This per IMF documentary requirements [IMF Statistical Accounting seminar, October 1999, Santiago, Chile]. BTW the accountants there objected to the practice of double-counting gold loans [Each party claims they still own the loaned gold]. The officers went so far as to use examples to reveal that the aggregate world reserves are vastly overstated by this practice.

The BIS has lost about 1,000 tonnes from its "Held in bars" category since 1995, also as a result of the rampant central bank gold selling. One can argue that the Bundesbank is light, but until they let gold-bugs in the vaults and or they tell the truth about "Gold Receivables", there's no way to tell...accept perhaps by a very tight physical market as we see today.

Black Blade

(01/23/2003; 21:37:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95400)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm
Snippit:

Little by little, money is moving into "things" as the price of gold soared, pulled back, and ended the session at even higher levels. The dollar continues to fall as the dollar index fell below 100, something we haven't seen since 1999. Today's graph of the U.S. dollar looks like an avalanche. The CRB Index was on hold today while individual components such as heating oil, cocoa, coffee, sugar, platinum, and cotton continued to rise. Gold bears continue to attribute gold's rise to fears over war with Iraq. The real reason that gold is rising along with commodities is because of what is happening to the dollar. A weak economy, an anemic profit picture for companies, and a deteriorating trade deficit and budget deficit are all contributing to the dollar's decline.

Black Blade: Exactly! I had the Wall Street Infomercial on today and pitchman Bob Pisani presented the Bull vs. Bear case for Gold. The Bulls: dollar weakness, sick economy, etc. The Bears: the war will end and gold will fall, dehedging stopped, etc. This of course is all spin and a load of excrement. Gold is rising in a primary Bull Market because the overvalued dollar is weakening, producer dehedging programs are continuing (some under pressure from livid shareholders who have not enjoyed the benefits of the charging Bull), crumbling equities markets, rising record levels of debt, and yes even rising geopolitical tensions that include Iraq. Under the table on screen while Pisani spun his tale was: "Information Provided by Goldman Sachs". Need I say more?

R Powell

(01/23/2003; 21:41:55 MDT - Msg ID: 95401)

Physicalman

It is good to hear you are feeling better. Age does not shake off illness as carelessly as does youth.

I wonder if we should assume that silver will benefit from all the forces currently driving gold higher? I know I do and many of us do but apparently the market, at least up until now, does not. Will it in the future or has that nebulous monetary link between silver and gold been lost completely on the current generation? I certainly hope not. I'm still looking for a delayed reaction and can almost feel the worry generated by gold's rise.

Whether with gold or not, I still can not find any reason that the price of silver should not rise with the ongoing deficit so, for whatever time remains, I must remain in the bull camp. Maybe Butler and Morgan are correct in stating that it may take an actual physical shortage in the industrial supply chain to reveal the fundamental situation? Or, as you suggest, maybe the smart money is still gathering while the pickings are good.
Glad you are better and HELLO to some new names I see today! How many are lurking? Do Greenspan, Rubin and Harry Houdini really read everything posted here?

So many questions, so little knowledge!
Rich

ElGordo

(01/23/2003; 21:55:43 MDT - Msg ID: 95402)

Davos economists predict falling dollar for year ahead

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1042491112270&p=1012571727085An ever more unbalanced world economy and a falling dollar were predicted for the year ahead by economists and bankers gathering in Davos on the first day of the meeting of the World Economic Forum.

A senior official of the Bank of China warned of "very volatile" exchange rates and, in particular, further falls in the dollar.

Last year the dollar fell more on a trade-weighted basis than in any year since 1987.

In the WEF's opening session, there was general agreement that the outlook for the world is, for the immediate future at least, synonymous with the outlook for the US.

Since 1995, the US has accounted for very nearly two thirds of the growth in global gross domestic product and there are few indications that this dependence is changing.

As Stephen Roach, chief economist of Morgan Stanley, put it: "The world is more US-centric now than it has ever been." While they accepted there were significant risks to the outlook, most notably from the record level of household debt, economists forecast that the US might grow by between 2 and 3 per cent this year.

If it does, it is likely once more to be the best performer of the world's five biggest economies. J�rgen von Hagen of Bonn University, an adviser to the German government, said he expected the eurozone to grow by no more than 0.8 per cent this year. There was also a risk that Germany, Europe's largest economy would slip back into recession.

The Japanese government expects growth of about 0.6 per cent this year. In nominal terms, allowing for the continuing fall in prices, GDP is expected to decline.

The one significant bright spot is China, which grew by about 8 per cent last year. But as it provides less than 4 per cent of total world GDP, its impact is still relatively minor.

If those expectations are fulfilled and global growth is unbalanced for yet another year then the US current account deficit, already about 5 per cent of GDP last year, will continue to grow, hitting 6 per cent, according to Mr Roach.

The problem for the dollar is that the deficit is becoming increasingly difficult to finance. Capital flows from Europe and Japan to the US have been falling, and by the fourth quarter of last year the main inflow was from Asian countries other than Japan.

Zhu Min, general manager of the Bank of China, said he did not believe those flows could be relied on. "Asia has been exporting to the US, and buying US Treasury bills, and so far everybody has been happy. But I don't think it is sustainable," he said. "Dependence on Asian capital flows to sustain the deficit is not healthy."

He argued that when short-term interest rates were 4 per cent in the UK and 2.75 per cent in the eurozone, compared with only 1.25 per cent in the US, capital flows from Asia were subject to change. The fact that the inflows to the US were increasingly financing not business investment but the budget deficit would be an additional problem for sentiment.

"I think this year the foreign exchange regime will be very much volatile," he said.

Not everyone believes the dollar must fall. Gail Fosler, chief economist of the Conference Board, the business research group, predicted "a very sharp recovery" to higher levels than in the 1990s once the Iraq crisis has been resolved. But the dollar fell again on Thursday, hitting a three-year low on a trade-weighted basis as the euro rose above $1.076.

silvercollector

(01/23/2003; 22:05:06 MDT - Msg ID: 95403)

physicalman

I'm going to do my once a month silver rant and rave; feel free to interject.

In the '50's and '60's when central banks minted silver for coin they HELD millions and millions of oz.'s for such purpose. When silver coin was put on hold ('70's) and subsequently photography ('90's) silver is not a sought after metal.

(Note for aspiring 'silvercollectors': if coin does not include silver a CB hoard CAN be construed as a negative. If ONE digital camera is used, silver consumption will be less. This is non-debatable.)

I became aware of silver's pain when I scouted the jeweller's retail outlet. The unanimous answer was platinum or pewter; "you don't have to clean it".

I became convinced of gold's superiority to silver when a local dealer told me silver "was a doorstop", and he's selling the stuff.

To the 'silvercollector's' out there.....wake up...silver's fundamentals are not good, $50 silver is not in the cards.

THINK.

sector

(01/23/2003; 22:15:37 MDT - Msg ID: 95404)

@Rich Powell A Gold Loan is a Gold Sale

No one borrows the gold to hold it in their handsThe sale takes place on the various markets of the world for cash which is then used.

Is the gold still there in the central bank? Yes and no. There is a tangible reported loss at the BIS in amounts well over 1,000 tonnes [BIS annual report]. There are numerous other banks that have loaned and then shipped their metal. Canada, Australia to name a few that have but a few bars left. This is confirmed by calling the two banks, as GATA folk have done. The gold is gone...16,000 tonnes of it.

Accepting that a gold loan is a gold sale is tough. Sure, some of the sale weight is only allocated to paper, but a large fraction of the loans find their way into metal claims.

If it were true that all gold trades are paper then the powers in charge at the Fed must be causing this gold rally since they could easily stop it by simply printing more paper. $14.5 billion in o/n repos yesterday didn't seem help the markets too much either.

There is a steady loss of metal at the central banks. A good example is the BOE. They reduced their metal by more half. It now stands at 235 tonnes. The "Auctions" were no such thing. They were deliveries from previous sales made to specified customers. it's, no doubt what Earnst Welyke wants to do over at the Bundesbank when he pipes up every other month about selling Germany's gold. It's ALREADY SOLD. He is getting pressure from the owners for a physical delivery.

The reporting of gold assets in almost all central banks [France being the major exception] fails to indicate physical metal -- only "Gold and Gold Receivables" so their assertions that they have all their metal is nonesense. If they HAD it they would do what France does...report the facts. France has no gold loans...zero. They report gold...over 3,031.84 tonnes of it at their 2001 Annual Report [Using the 2001 Dec 28, PM Fix].

Central banks have sold forward or swapped half their gold to any comers, usually in the form of interest rate swaps, so the issuer can then sell the metal into a COMEX or more likely a LBMA rally for cash. A rally like we have going on now. Not only is loaned gold at risk but is, by practical definition, sold.

The central banks can't claim to the BIS they own gold that has been swapped or loaned or sold forward. The BIS has 16,000 on their books for gold swaps, loans and forwards. The banks no longer control that gold. They no longer have title to that gold. For all practical purposes its gone.

Maybe the seller gets it free of risk by longs rolling out of contracts, but theoretically everybody can stand for the delivery of paper gold market contracts. It's that theory that has the loaned and swapped gold at risk. It is also the increased physical demand from a now growing open interest regime that further stresses the fractional gold banking system [Which is no different that the fractional paper banking system except that gold can't be printed].

The thing that kills a fractional gold [Or paper] banking sytem is the loss of liquidity. We have such a liquidity loss today in the gold market.

If he central bankers had the physical gold available, they would prudently bring it out and save the dollar by smashing gold back to an Elliott waved, $200 per ounce.

.

Black Blade

(01/23/2003; 22:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95405)

Market bear sees new lows in coming months

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=2100310
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Stocks are likely to undercut their October lows in coming months and investors should brace for a rare Wall Street phenomenon: a fourth down year in a row, says one of the market's grizzliest stock bears. Fred Hickey, who publishes the highly regarded investment newsletter "The High-Tech Strategist," said the market advance from five- or six-year lows hit in October 2002 will go the way of several similar runs since early 2000. "It's the usual bear market rally," Hickey, whose forecasts have proven prescient in recent years, said in a telephone interview from his home office in Nashua, New Hampshire. "The market will go below the October lows, the suckers' rally is in the process of falling apart." Hickey said valuations are still too high, meaning corporate earnings don't justify these levels. A blizzard of negative corporate news in early 2003, already under way, will bury the market bulls, argues Hickey, who specializes in technology issues and is seen as an analyst's analyst.

Black Blade: I fully expect a fourth consecutive down year this year. Aside from all the horrible news from corporate America (regardless of the pro forma and earnings meeting or beating stupid analysts vastly lowered expectations drivel), record debt (consumer, corporate, and government), rising unemployment (seasonality be damned), we still have an energy crisis that has not even been addressed and it will absolutely crush any attempt at economic recovery. I am not talking about oil but electricity and natural gas. We have very few dual fuel facilities that can use oil so fuel switching is not going to help. NatGas supply is falling fast (in fact I expect next week's storage withdrawal to easily surpass this week's exceptionally high number by a wide margin) and there is very little drilling interest so replacement of reserves is not going to happen. In fact we should easily expect at a down year for the markets for at least the next two years and possibly longer!

We should expect this secular Bear Market to ravage retirement accounts for most Americans for several years. Here is a nice little quick table of Bear vs. Bull markets:

Secular Bull: 1921-1929 (8 years)
Secular Bear: 1929-1948 (19 years)
Secular Bull: 1948-1966 (18 years)
Secular Bear: 1966-1982 (16 years)
Secular Bull: 1982-2000 (18 years)
Secular Bear: 2000-???? (so far only 2 years!)

Bear markets usually end when stocks have PE ratios in the single digits (average 7-8), however, the current PE ratios for the DOW and S&P 500 are about 28 (actually it's higher because this is based on forward looking earnings). I can't calculate a PE for the Nasdaq because it's a negative number! If historical data is any guide the DOW should hit about 2430 and the S&P hit about 260 (and I am being generous with the data). If this information were to reach the general investing public and these investors has any modest semblence of what we call intelligence, there would be a maddening rush for the exits (what we could call capitulation). Instead the Wall Street Infomercial (aka CNBC, CNNfn, Bloomberg, etc.) spin tall tales of how "cheap" stocks are. Well, OK, they are cheaper than they were but still grossly overvalued.

Oh well, we here can at least observe natural selection in action for our "entertainment" as these unfortunate Lemmings get ripped to shreds and lose their hopes and dreams as the pied pipers lead them over the cliff. So I'll grab a few Negra Models and some snacks and watch the carnage unfold.

Black Blade

(01/23/2003; 22:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 95406)

66% of Brokerage Firms Continue to Recommend Failing Companies

http://www.weissratings.com/News/Broker/20030121broker.htm
Lehman Brothers and Salomon Each Give Four "Sells" as Total Number of "Sell" Ratings Jumps to 50%

Snippit:

PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla., January 21, 2003 - Among the 30 brokerage firms covering companies filing for bankruptcy between September 1 and December 31, 2002, 20 firms, or 66 percent, continued to recommend that investors buy or hold shares in the failing companies right up to the day they filed for Chapter 11, according to a study by Weiss Ratings, Inc., the nation's leading independent provider of ratings and analyses of financial services companies, mutual funds, and stocks.1 This represents a modest improvement compared to earlier Weiss studies that showed 74 percent of brokerage firms recommended companies failing between May 1 and August 31, 2002, and 94 percent recommended those failing between January 1 and April 30, 2002.

Black Blade: Recommending bankrupt companies to investors eh? Why not? I would think that most people have caught on to the selling of the Brooklyn Bridge scam by now.

Galerider

(01/23/2003; 22:40:06 MDT - Msg ID: 95407)

DOLLAR

Watching the dollar on a trickling freefall this evening vs. Swiss Franc, Euro, Yen. A friend of mine asked a few weeks ago about what I would think if he cashed in all the U.S. Savings Bonds he owned. I told him I thought he was nuts, they are a safe, conservative investment. Well, he cashed them. Today, I don't think he's nuts. Hope he bought gold.

Black Blade

(01/23/2003; 22:41:01 MDT - Msg ID: 95408)

More Bankruptcy Filings Expected in 2003

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=2099811
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. bankruptcy experts said they expect an increase in bankruptcy filings in 2003 as consumer appetite for debt is fueled by widely available credit. Projections are that 2003 could be another record year for bankruptcies, said Sam Gerdano, president of the American Bankruptcy Institute, in a conference call with reporters. There were 1.5 million bankruptcy cases last year, 97 percent of which were individual, rather than business, filings, he said. "Bankruptcy is booming in the United States," Gerdano said. Greater availability of credit for a wider range of borrowers and the U.S. economic contraction are causing more people to seek legal protections from their creditors, said lawyers, scholars and credit counselors in a conference call. Bankruptcy experts told reporters they are noticing more repeat filings and younger and older filers, often with a level of credit card debt that would have been unthinkable 20 years ago.

Black Blade: It should not be surprising as many are spending like drunken sailors and not taking minimal precautions. When catastrophe strikes they are unprepared and suffer the consequences. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months� expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. Whether it be layoff, family illness, natural disaster, etc. having several months worth of supplies (one year minimum would be best) could prevent a lot of distress if some unfortunate unplanned event interrupts your life.

Black Blade

(01/23/2003; 22:50:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95409)

Poll shows plunge in consumer mood

http://www.accessatlanta.com/ajc/epaper/editions/today/business_e3f248e63745602a00f6.html
Snippit:

In an ominous sign, consumer comfort plunged last week to its lowest level in more than nine years, as measured by the weekly poll by ABC News and Money magazine. While no one seismic event triggered the mood of gloom, Americans have apparently grown weary of a weak job market along with talk of war amid deepening crises in Iraq and Korea. The rising price of gasoline, nudged upward by war worries, is heightening economic anxieties. "Consumers have had plenty to be concerned about in recent weeks," said economist Andy Kish of Economy.com. "The main weight on consumer sentiment, however, is the economy itself as the stock market fails to gain traction and corporate hiring remains tepid at best." Roughly 43 percent of Americans surveyed said the economy is getting worse, compared with 37 percent who say it is holding steady and 19 percent who believe things are improving.

Black Blade: What? Can it be? It appears that some of the sleepers have awakened! Well I'll be damned.

(01/23/2003; 23:02:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95410)

Sinclair on U.S. Gold Reserves

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
The latest essay by James Sinclair on Gold Eagle entitled
" Gold to be Remonetized" has this sentence:

"The Treasury could simply benefit from a higher price or could buy gold in the open market to effect a higher price should the need arise to expand beyond the present level in M3 beyond a predetermined expansion of 3% per year."

The concept of U.S. Treasury gold purchases
is not without the realm of possibility in Mr. Sinclair's opinion.

The article is very comprehensive and detailed and I encourage
everyone to read it.

As far as the part where the U.S. treasury might buy gold, I have been
advocating this for some time now on this forum.

The U.S. should have started buying four or so years
back when the cost was much less and the dollar much stronger.
But even now, I think it is in the best interest of the United States
in view of the very low interest rates and expanding money supply
to stabilize the dollar with a much firmer gold backing. It would be
best if this not occur just from a rise in the gold price, but with an actual
increase in the total reserve tonnage.

ax

Shermag

(01/23/2003; 23:10:18 MDT - Msg ID: 95411)

Mr Bill

"I believe that most of Florida has been sold to Canadians already."

Yea. And we want a vote!

TEX

(01/23/2003; 23:21:09 MDT - Msg ID: 95412)

1340cc - Bear Valley (post #95390)

Ah........Bear Valley Shopping Center! The old Ace Hardware store is gone (put out of business by the new Home Depot) but the Bear Valley Inn is still around and Ethel is still serving up drinks at the bar!

Black Blade

(01/23/2003; 23:31:55 MDT - Msg ID: 95413)

US oil stock rise masks tight product supply-EIA

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030123/energy_eia_inventories_1.htmlUS oil stock rise masks tight product supply-EIA
Thursday January 23, 4:42 pm ET
By Tom Doggett

WASHINGTON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - A small rise in U.S. weekly crude oil inventories last week may mask falling supplies of refined products as a lack of crude forces refineries to cut production of gasoline and heating oil, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday.

While refined supplies are currently comfortable, a period of lower refinery production could quickly create a deficit -- especially of gasoline, warned the EIA, which is the analytical arm of the Energy Department.

"Even a relatively slight supply/demand imbalance can erode perceived product excesses quickly," the EIA said in its weekly review of the oil market.

"With downward economic pressure for crude oil refinery inputs and significant planned maintenance ahead, gasoline markets warrant close scrutiny, as inventories may yet move to challenging levels ahead of the spring upturn in gasoline demand," it added.

The EIA said in its weekly supply report on Thursday that U.S. crude oil stocks rose by 1.5 million barrels at the end of last week to 273.8 million barrels.

However, refinery inputs fell by 400,000 barrels per day, it said. Stocks of distillate -- including heating oil and diesel -- fell sharply, as did output of gasoline, it said.

The agency said if oil inventories fell below the 270 million barrels inventory threshold, which has been called the minimum operational oil stock level for refineries, there would be little or no buffer to keep refinery output from declining.

The impact of the Venezuelan crisis seems to be entering a new phase," said Paul Horsnell of investment bank JP Morgan.

"Crude oil inventories can't fall much further, refinery runs are being cut more aggressively than the normal seasonal cuts and the first flush of easy to find product imports has passed."

OPEC has boosted its production by 1.5 million barrels per day to offset some of the lost Venezuelan oil and increase global crude inventories.

"Even if additional crude oil imports from other countries begin to arrive, it is doubtful that without near-normal levels of Venezuelan crude oil imports crude oil inventory levels significantly above 270 million barrels can be maintained while crude oil refinery inputs are near 15 million barrels per day," EIA said. "One or the other clearly has to fall."

Separately, the agency said residual fuel inventories, which are at their lowest level since 1954, will remain tight for the near term.

"Residual fuel inventories have been below normal levels since the end of May due to relatively strong demand for light products, prompting relatively low refinery yields of the heavier products in the face of modest crude oil refinery inputs," EIA said.

Inventories of residual fuel are just 600,000 barrels above the lower operational inventory level of 29 million barrels for refineries, the agency said.

Demand for residual fuel last week averaged 1 million barrels a day, the highest since late Oct. 2001, due to colder weather, EIA said.

Residual fuel is used by utilities and industrial plants, typically increasing in those facilities with duel-fuel capability when natural gas prices rise -- which has been the case lately.

In addition, stocks of 'other oils' -- outside the main refined product categories -- fell 3.6 million barrels last week, and have fallen 9 percent in the last four weeks, the EIA said.

Stocks of 'unfinished oils' have fallen 7 percent in the last four weeks. "There is less than a normal level of "work in progress in U.S. refining," said J.P. Morgan's Horsnell.

Black Blade

(01/23/2003; 23:42:59 MDT - Msg ID: 95414)

Hmmm...

Well that last post was not exactly what I planned to enter. Oh well, I guess the point being that inventories are on the cusp of sinking into critical levels. This is the EIA data and the API data showed a decline in oil inventory. We have two competing sources of oil inventory info that do not usually match up. But both agencies are predicting a critical supply problem on further inventory declines. I would expect that there will be more calls by politicians to tap into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

- Black Blade

Malfleur

(01/23/2003; 23:55:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95415)

Christian: Request for Clarifiction

Would you (or anyone else in the forum in the know) mind explaining what you mean by "credit creation gold" in your post #95303 and how your figure is arrived at? Many thanks.

Black Blade

(01/24/2003; 00:00:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95416)

API vs. EIA

It must be a long night. Actually both have increases in inventory but vary widely

API 1,500,000 bbl increase
EIA 181,000 bbl increase

Reduction in refinery runs may account for much of the increase though. Still a very slight increase.

- Black Blade

Gandalf the White

(01/24/2003; 00:10:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95417)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !UPDATE as of 00:01 Friday 01/24/03 Denver Time !

LOOKS as if SPOT and SPIKE are restless tonight !
Friday's COMEX close should be "interesting" !! <;-)

QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003:

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 = $358.1 + $7.0 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a Low = $350.0
1/17/03 = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a Low = $355.3 and Sir ROCK is "King of the Hill" !
1/21/03 = $357.5 + $0.7 with a HIGH = $358.1 and a Low = $353.4 and Sir Goldenboy is "KING of the HILL" !
1/22/03 = $359.9 + $2.4 with a HIGH = $360.4 and a Low = $357.8 and Sir Henri is NOW "KING of the HILL!"
1/23/03 = $364.6 + $4.7 with a HIGH = $367.7 and a Low = $360.0 and ... WOWSERS .. A TIE !!
...........................................................BOTH Sir monTROZ & Sir Rock are "KINGS of the Hill !!!"

===
ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

**** $750.0 **** Caradoc (1/17/03; 10:49:20MT - msg#: 94778

**** $480.3 **** Cometose (1/23/03; 10:01:34MT - msg#: 95329

**** $426.2 **** drawmax (1/20/03; 08:09:53MT - msg#: 94990)

**** $419.4 **** The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - msg#: 94798

**** $404.5 **** Magister Aurelius (1/23/03; 10:23:42MT - msg#: 95332

**** $403.5 **** misetich (1/17/03; 18:25:29MT - msg#: 94815

**** $400.0 **** Sundeck (1/17/03; 04:25:05MT - msg#: 94737

**** $396.4 **** Bulldog (1/17/03; 20:05:57MT - msg#: 94825

**** $395.1 **** Pizz (1/23/03; 10:48:12MT - msg#: 95337

**** $390.0 **** Galerider (01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - msg#: 94724)

**** $387.5 **** knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - msg#: 94800

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (1/17/03; 05:12:59MT - msg#: 94738

**** $383.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - msg#: 94791

**** $382.5 **** Hipplebeck (1/18/03; 06:47:33MT - msg#: 94850

**** $380.2 **** pinetree (1/23/03; 09:04:28MT - msg#: 95322

**** $379.1 **** ha_tey_o (1/17/03; 07:24:56MT - msg#: 94741

**** $378.9 **** erayboy (1/17/03; 03:05:04MT - msg#: 94729
**** $378.8 **** miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - msg#: 94805

**** $378.1 **** a nation of one (01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - msg#: 94720

**** $376.2 **** GoldenSun (1/23/03; 09:26:38MT - msg#: 95325

**** $375.5 **** balzac (1/18/03; 14:15:59MT - msg#: 94880

**** $375.0 **** Mountain Top (1/19/03; 10:56:32MT - msg#: 94937

**** $374.6 **** harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - msg#: 94792

**** $374.1 **** Slowman (1/17/03; 06:10:05MT - msg#: 94739
**** $374.0 **** Zhisheng (1/17/03; 09:53:34MT - msg#: 94762

**** $373.5 **** kahulik (01/20/03; 11:08:21MT - msg#: 94998

**** $372.2 **** Houston (1/19/03; 10:30:11MT - msg#: 94934

**** $372.0 **** OZ (1/17/03; 02:14:25MT - msg#: 94727
**** $371.9 **** silvercollector (1/22/03; 05:15:12MT - msg#: 95191
**** $371.8 **** Time For GOLD (1/22/03; 11:17:36MT - msg#: 95211

**** $371.2 **** Achilles (1/23/03; 09:27:54MT - msg#: 95326

**** $370.9 **** Richman (1/22/03; 11:18:21MT - msg#: 95212

**** $370.5 **** VanRip (1/17/03; 07:59:23MT - msg#: 94747

**** $370.3 **** Casey (01/23/03; 13:32:42MT - msg#: 95349

**** $370.1 **** Black Blade (1/23/03; 10:00:48MT - msg#: 95328

**** $369.9 **** Ole Man (1/18/03; 23:30:28MT - msg#: 94912

**** $369.5 **** Truthcaster (1/23/03; 09:18:53MT - msg#: 95323

**** $369.2 **** slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - msg#: 94796

**** $369.0 **** wiley (01/21/03; 12:21:41MT - msg#: 95102

**** $368.7 **** Toolie (01/23/03; 20:26:50MT - msg#: 95394

**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750

**** $368.2 **** Zelts (01/21/03; 07:34:30MT - msg#: 95080

**** $367.4 **** Kagalaska (01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - msg#: 94721

**** $366.0 **** White Rose (01/21/03; 09:29:59MT - msg#: 95093

**** $365.2 **** pilgrims_gold (1/18/03; 10:01:47MT - msg#: 94863

**** $365.0 **** monTROZ (01/20/03; 12:50:24MT - msg#: 95005

**** $364.2 **** Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - msg#: 94755

**** $363.0 **** luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - msg#: 94795

**** $362.5 **** EagleOne (1/18/03; 14:02:13MT - msg#: 94877

**** $362.3 **** Renny (1/18/03; 05:15:47MT - msg#: 94848

**** $362.0 **** Albatros (01/21/03; 07:48:42MT - msg#: 95081

**** $361.7 **** mudr (01/23/03; 20:19:27MT - msg#: 95391

**** $361.1 **** Lothar of the Hill People (01/20/03; 13:51:40MT - msg#: 95013

**** $360.8 **** Liberty Head (01/20/03; 19:45:52MT - msg#: 95040

**** $360.5 **** Felix the Cat (1/20/03; 03:35:20MT - msg#: 94984

**** $360.0 **** Henri (1/18/03; 15:28:31MT - msg#: 94886

**** $359.7 **** Alaskan hunter (01/23/03; 14:12:45MT - msg#: 95355

**** $359.1 **** 24carat (1/18/03; 16:10:36MT - msg#: 94889

**** $358.0 **** makcumka (1/20/03; 05:44:13MT - msg#: 94987

**** $357.6 **** goldenboy (01/21/03; 09:16:39MT - msg#: 95092

**** $348.0 **** Topaz (1/17/03; 03:06:48MT - msg#: 94730
===

INVALID ENTRIES
---
NONE !!!!!!
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.
---

THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February �03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 -----

The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old) goldpiece !!
Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin was
Minted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce.
(Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)
---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
(Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines"
LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!!
READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
---
LET the CONTEST CONTINUE !!
<;-)

Malfleur

(01/24/2003; 00:17:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95418)

Christian: Request for Clarifiction

Would you (or anyone else in the forum in the know) mind explaining what you mean by "credit creation gold" in your post #95303 and how your figure is arrived at? Many thanks.

ElGordo

(01/24/2003; 00:54:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95419)

Dollar chart

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d3Its relentless.

Silvercollector; Silver has a lot of new uses in the pipeline.
There are more patents for using silver than all other metals
combined. When gold gets too expensive for many to buy, silver
will move up. IMO

ElGordo

(01/24/2003; 01:10:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95420)

Global hedgebook contracted by 352 tons in 2002

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/030124/15/36snd.htmlLast week, London-based commodity research firm Gold Fields Mineral Services reported that the global hedgebook in 2002 contracted by a "substantial" 352 tons.

"The motivation behind the large fall in global hedge positions was the strong and sustained increase in spot prices and more importantly, expectations that they will continue to rally," said Philip Klapwijk, Managing Director of Gold Fields Mineral Services in London.

ElGordo

(01/24/2003; 01:30:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95421)

BBC: Iraq preparing for Chemical War

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2690163.stmIraqi documents obtained by the BBC indicate that Baghdad is equipping key units with protection against chemical weapons.
------

"We know from multiple sources that Saddam has ordered any scientist who cooperates during interviews will be killed"

Paul Wolfowitz
US Deputy Defence Secretary
-----

The handwritten papers smuggled out by the Iraqi opposition refer to new chemical warfare suits to protect soldiers and distribution of the drug atropine to counter the effects of nerve gas.

The notes, passed on by the opposition Iraqi National Coalition (INC), also included details for attacking ships in the Gulf.

The INC says the notes came from members of Baghdad's military.

Iraq's Republican Guard and Special Republican Guard are among the recipients of special suits and atropine, the BBC's Gordon Corera reports.
____________
Saddam has had chemical weapons for many years, used them against Iran in the 80's. He knows how to use them. Has experience
using them. He will use them against our forces if he can get
them off before we can destroy them. It could get real ugly.

ElGordo

(01/24/2003; 01:38:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95422)

Check this out!

Missiles: the Council was told that Iraq had admitted that its new al-Samoud rocket had reached 183 kilometres in a test firing - beyond the 150km limit imposed by the UN.

Mr Blix also said that "inspections have confirmed the presence of a relatively large number of missile engines, some imported as late as 2002". These were "illegal imports". Their significance was being examined.

ElGordo

(01/24/2003; 01:50:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95423)

More info on Iraq weapons

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2677315.stmBush will probably use some this in his state of the union.
Prelude to war.

Black Blade

(01/24/2003; 02:37:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95424)

Gold strengthens further on speculative buying

http://search.ft.com/search/article.html?id=030124000577&query=gold&vsc_appId=totalSearch&state=Form
Snippit:

Jeffrey Christian at CPM Group suggested that speculators were positioning themselves to take advantage of a possible price spike caused by congestion in the New York market at the end of this month. The February Comex futures contract becomes deliverable on January 31. Mr Christian said speculators were betting that people who sold the February contract would find it hard to get the physical gold they need to deliver against their February positions. "They will thus want to buy offsetting February contracts while either closing out these short positions or rolling them forward into future delivery months," Mr Christian said. He pointed out that as of January 21 there was a total of 11.2m ounces of open interest in the February Comex futures contract, compared with only 1.7m ounces of bullion stocks registered against Comex positions.

Black Blade: Now consider the possibilities here. If just a few demand delivery and can't get it and the media gets wind of it � just like Goldcorp's attempt to buy a measly 40,000 ounces and having to wait for weeks only more impressive. The Comex would change the rules and gold would rocket as the curtain is pulled back exposing limited available supply. It would be fun.

24carat

(01/24/2003; 03:34:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95425)

Silver ~~~ A very good bet for a superior investment

The case against silver continues to be the lackluster price performance that is determined in the derivative markets. As usual, the inability of silver's price to move steadily ahead is always blamed on untold and vast amounts of physical. I believe that an investment in silver currently offers the chance of substantial return with an extremely low risk of capital loss. (buying physical)

As for jewelers thinking it a door stop, I would not trust 95% of the jewelers marketing gold and silver. Their integrity is as suspect as any in the new age of positive spin.

As for the horde of silver coin waiting to hit the market, I strongly feel that the melt price of about 4 thousand dollars per 1 thousand face value at current price levels is incentive enough to have effectively removed minted coins.

My point is that for every negative in silver, at least two or three positives exist. I feel that for someone looking for an investment that offers minimal risk and the potential for solid gains, physical silver is a good choice. It's heavy but, hard work is a good path to success.

Black Blade

(01/24/2003; 03:43:19 MDT - Msg ID: 95426)

Bank Of Japan Intervention

The Yen came off its lows against the US dollar as rumors per CNBC that the BOJ is intervening to prop up the US dollar and sell the Yen.

- Black Blade

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/24/2003; 04:52:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95427)

New TOLL FREE PHONE NUMBERS for our INTERNATIONAL CLIENTS.

http://www.usagold.com/phone.html

Living Across the Water, or Downunder? No worries, Mate.
Your access to gold is an easy phone call away.

This international information page is for our clients and friends just like you.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals has recently fulfilled gold orders for clients in

European Delivery New Zealand
Great Britain
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the Netherlands
Finland
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Canada
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and,
of course,
the United States.

Golden Bear

(01/24/2003; 04:54:23 MDT - Msg ID: 95428)

ElGordo (msg#: 95421)

And who gave Saddam all those weapons Sir? No wonder the US hijacked the 12000 page report and stripped it to 3000 pages before giving it to the other members of the security council...

Try this link for the list of guilty parties, and enjoy the fruits of the western "democracies'" labours...

http://www.radsoft.net/news/20030121,01.html

and

http://www.radsoft.net/news/20030121,02.html

Global hypocrisy at its best...

Christian

(01/24/2003; 05:11:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95429)

Credit Creation Gold

Credit creation gold is commodity gold turned into monetary credit creation gold by means of credit enhancement through financial engineering made possible by the fractional reserve credit creation (loan making) system. -- 5% of all money exists in coin or bank notes and the rest (95%) is credit money that exists only as numbers in bank computers. Banks create debt money by creating credit. M1= coins, bank notes and checkbook money held by banks. M2= Time deposits (cd's) M3= Deposits created by credit creation gold. A bank simply leases a warehouse receipt on gold or any other precious metal, sells it and uses the proceeds to create a deposit on its own account. That deposit becomes the basis for fractional reserve loans. A $100,000 deposit then can be turned into $3,000,000 worth of loans because as each loan is made, additional deposits are created which serve as a base for more loans. In the area I am in the banks have to show 3% reserve on hand on loans made. In this way banks can create digital debt money by making loans that result in additional deposits. All banks in my area use this off balance sheet leasing of gold warehouse receipts. To them it is simply an off balance sheet accounting deficit. Lease rates and principal (metal) owed are payable in metal only and only as an off balance sheet transaction. The gold and loans made possible form the credit creation made from that gold can be bundled and turned into bundled into an entity to swap on the OTC. Commodity gold is commodity gold until it is used for credit creation. Credit creation gold comes with the loans made possible by that gold. Last year 30,000 tonnes of credit creation gold in the form of swaps were traded on the OTC. The ARISTOCRACY lives off this interest created by credit creation. Aristocracy is founded on banking institutions, where leasing warehouse receipts is just a numbers game. It is simply an off balance sheet deficit accounting. Lease rates and principal are payable in off balance sheet metal. Aristocracy simply write a number of warehouse receipts on the same gold. The amount of currency in circulation is not controlled. however Greenspan now favors registration of precious metal to control the amount of debt money in circulation. Presently credit creation gold swaps made from credit creation gold trade about 30 times commodity gold in the USA and 50 times in the Euro countries. But in the Euro countries currency circulation is controlled by registration of precious metal where in the USA is not. Same applies to stock certificates. In the US you do not own the shares you purchased unless you have a certificate. With out a certificate it is simply a bookeeping entry on your statement. The reason a 300 billion share short position can exist on a 100 billion stock float is because much of the stock float is not registered and the naked shorters simply sell those shares over and over and buy them back when the stock is dead for the next run up.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(01/24/2003; 06:19:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95430)

Hedge funds turn from shares to commodities

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1042491138551&p=1012571727085&ft_acl=By Kevin Morrison
Published: January 23 2003 20:16 | Last Updated: January 23 2003 20:16

Hedge fund managers have been switching from falling equity markets and taking a fresh look at commodities, pushing gold, platinum and nickel prices to highs not seen for years.

Hugh Hendry, fund manager at London-based Odey Asset Mangement, said central banks have contributed to the increasing interest in commodities. "They are able to print money to keep the economy going and that money always finds its way to the fastest rising asset class," he said. "In the 1990s that was Nasdaq and now it looks like commodities."

Metals are not the only class of commodities to benefit. Products such as cocoa, wool, soybeans, palm oil, wheat and corn have risen by between 13 per cent and almost 60 per cent since the start of last year.

This and stronger metal prices have helped push the Commodity Research Bureau index, a global basket of commodity prices, up more than 30 per cent since the end of 2001.

John Reade, a precious metals analyst at UBS Warburg, said hedge funds have been buying into metals during the latest upswing, pointing out the record number of positions on the Comex gold contract in New York.

"There is money coming into the gold and platinum market that hasn't been seen for a long time," Mr Reade said.

Another fact pointing to the role of funds is that the gold price has risen despite the lack of underlying demand, such as from jewellery makers; global demand in this area fell 12 per cent last year, according to the World Gold Council.

Mr Reade estimated that there was a $30 to $50 war premium in the gold price, which was fixed at $364.70 in London on Thursday.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/24/2003; 06:23:32 MDT - Msg ID: 95431)

Ally yourself with a gold broker that is knowledgeable and also cares...

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals, founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:

"[M]uch of this issue is devoted to oil, inflation, international politics and gold. . . . . Though the dollar continued to rise against most international currencies during the past month, most currencies ( including the dollar) were depreciating against real goods. . . . AND IT IS THE TREND THAT HAS ECONOMISTS CONCERNED. Crude oil, which must be purchased with dollars, is being blamed as the chief culprit. When the dollar price of oil rises, it fans the inflationary fires of nearly every nation in the world. All of this could at some point inspire a dollar rebellion among the nations of the world, with both oil producers and oil consumers capable of finding fault with the dollar simultaneously . . . . In such a case gold, of course, would become one of the primary beneficiaries and the dollar could go into a tailspin."

Take note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

News & Views is available to our clientele only. However, the latest issue is just back from the printer and available to prospective gold investors who request an INFORMATION PACKET on one-time only basis. We invite your request.

If you would like to get a feel for the thinking that forms the basis for market conclusions like the one featured above, take advantage of the offer to include THE ABCs of GOLD INVESTING: PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH THROUGH PRIVATE GOLD OWNERSHIP. A prompt with ordering information will come up after you submit your request for the INFORMATION PACKET.

Toolie

(01/24/2003; 06:55:43 MDT - Msg ID: 95432)

How long before the Euro joins in?

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/030124/15/36t0t.htmlSnip;

Japanese investors are obviously concerned about a conflict in the Middle East, as is everyone else. But they're also growing worried about upcoming monetary policy changes in Japan.

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is widely expected to name a new governor for the Bank of Japan, who will fight deflation by moving in favor of a weaker yen. Outgoing BOJ Governor Masaru Hayami is scheduled to leave in March.

"Heavy buying of gold in Japan is perhaps indicative of concerns about the yen weakening going further," said Simon Derrick, currency strategist with the Bank of New York in London. "With the Japanese dumping yen and global investors fleeing the dollar, the euro clearly stands to benefit.

Toolie; The west & Japan are all in the same boat thanks to the Chinese economic miracle. The bull market in gold has lots of room to run.

(01/24/2003; 07:23:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95433)

Black Blade: Jeffrey Christian's Short Squeeze

Jon, I've known Jeffrey Christian for a lot of years and the one thing that sticks in my mind with respect to his personality is how conservative and careful an analyst and commentator he is. If he says there's a possibility of a short (delivery) squeeze on the Feb contract at the end of the month, we should take note. He wouldn't say something like that unless there was clear evidence (and he knows alot of the players). I have thought it unusual all week that the shorts have been unable to move the price down despite options expiration coming up on the 28th as I mentioned on the phone the other day (they changed the closing date).

By the way, your report yesterday was excellent. I think gold enthusiasts would have to expend a great deal of time and effort to find what can be had by a simple click at the Daily Market Report link at the top of this page. I go to it myself to keep up with day to day market events and their relevance to gold.

Mr. Bill

(01/24/2003; 07:25:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95434)

@Shermag msg#: 95411- votes

I will see what I can do. But I think that Jeb has already bought enough votes.

mas

(01/24/2003; 07:36:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95435)

Iraq

Heard 14th of Feb. would be the day. Okay so where will the dollar be then? 85?
We think they will pull the plug on the dollar before this, did you see the graph, it looks like it's running at 45 degrees (downwards). So who's going to jump in with support, you? Doubt it! Yen! Ha!
Confusing times? Not really.
Dollar/Gold price will explode. Plus other currencies will correct and re-adjust of course.
Got gold/mas.

Simply Me

(01/24/2003; 08:14:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95436)

@MK and Black Blade

I think we will be at war with Iraq by the end of this month. So, watch the talking heads blame the gold run-up on war fears, thereby attracting attention away from the real reason for the price spike and providing the gold skeptics a credible reason to forescast a drop in the POG later.

Simply

Hipplebeck

(01/24/2003; 08:22:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95437)

Venezuela oil

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1042491161410&p=1012571727088It looks like the tuning point on the strike.
Oil production is climbing.

White Rose

(01/24/2003; 08:25:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95439)

It now takes $1.080003 to buy one Euro

We have crossed $1.08! The dollar is sinking pretty fast.

White Rose

(01/24/2003; 08:42:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95441)

(No Subject)

At this time yesterday, gold was hit for a few dollars. It would be very telling if gold stayed at this level, or increased into the NY close.

Now $1.08105 buys one Euro.

Waverider

(01/24/2003; 09:22:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95442)

Dollar Falls a Record Ninth Day Against the Euro on War Concern

rsjacksr

(01/24/2003; 09:47:47 MDT - Msg ID: 95443)

Call to Contest

********427.4*********
We are trying hard to fine an excuse to go to war with Iraq. Whether or not we are justified, and I think we are NOT, we are going to invade Iraq. MK has convinced me that there will be a short squeeze. So, between the squeeze and the war ( a squeeze of a different nature), the price of gold will explode and the dollar will sink.

GratefulForGold

(01/24/2003; 09:51:47 MDT - Msg ID: 95444)

SPOT 'N SPIKE FRISKY AGAIN

+4.40 AND +.09.

CoBra(too)

(01/24/2003; 09:52:08 MDT - Msg ID: 95445)

While Washington is Contemplating to Bomb Bagdad

... the US Dollar and the Stock Market is already getting bombed. Can U say collateral damage?

The technical "overbought" POG meanwhile doesn't really care what the "experts" say and proceeds to new highs, anyway.

If it weren't so sad it'd almost be comical - cb2

PS: MK - I'm sure we'll be watching together - tomorrow's
Kitzbuehel downhill event. The weatherman is optimistic that the hard snowfall will cease - and one-ski Rahlves will get his chance to win the "Streif" as first American ever! - Best to you!

canamami

(01/24/2003; 10:02:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95446)

Steven Jon Kaplan

Does he still have a website?

Pizz

(01/24/2003; 10:11:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95447)

Sinclair's vision of the next 18 months

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/sinclair012503.htmlI think the best thing about Sinclair is that not only is he pro gold, but he also appears to have the guts, intellegence, resources, and contacts to give the world his version of the future. He also appears to put his money where his mouth is.

If anyone thinks that the PTB is just going to sit on their collective rears and not do anything but react to what appears to be the end-game for the dollar I believe has their heads buried pretty deep in the sand.

I find it very difficult to disagree with Mr. Sinclair's vision of the future. Details and timing may be a bit off, but if there is another answer to our problems, I'd sure like to here it, cause his solution will work, although the Phoenix from the ashes of 2003(the dollar) may not be quite as pretty as as before, but useable and sustainable until the politicians screw it up again.

Pizz

Shanti

(01/24/2003; 10:20:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95448)

Contest

*****$388.80*****

There isn't any place in the world where there's so many discussing on the subject "GOLD" as here on USAGOLD!
Thanks for the possibility you and your team have created here MR.KOSARES and ofcourse a special word of thanks for all the briliant posters here.

As almost EVERYTHING has been said here why POG is on the move there is still one word to respect "PATIENCE" It will all unfold before your eyes. It is only a matter of time.......

Sal-OM !!
Shanti

Gimli_

(01/24/2003; 10:26:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95449)

Steven Jon Kaplan: Does he still have a website?

http://truecontrarian.com/"canamami (1/24/03; 10:02:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 95446)
Steven Jon Kaplan: Does he still have a website?"

Yep, at this link: http://truecontrarian.com/

(Glad I haven't been following his advice lately. )

sector

(01/24/2003; 10:42:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95450)

@ pizz Your are Right about Sinclair

He is well-connected and a forward thinker......when it comes to the Fed and the gold rocket.

They can no longer hold it back. Now the challenge is to profit from the coming meteoric trajectory.

BTW the dollar is really getting ugly this afternoon...almost like a panic.

Rock

(01/24/2003; 10:46:46 MDT - Msg ID: 95451)

MK, Blade, Golden Bear, Simply Me

BlackBlade, I enjoyed reviewing the numbers you presented concerning the lengths of the bull and bear markets since 1921. Looking at the stats one would have to think that we're in for a long bear ride, most likely ten years or longer. After all since 1921 there has never been a bear market under 16 years with an average of a 17.5 year bear market.

Secular Bull: 1921-1929 (8 years)
Secular Bear: 1929-1948 (19 years)
Secular Bull: 1948-1966 (18 years)
Secular Bear: 1966-1982 (16 years)
Secular Bull: 1982-2000 (18 years)
Secular Bear: 2000-???? (so far only 2 years!)

Goldenbear: # 95428 love the handle and marvel at your "inside" Intel regarding the 12,000 page Iraq document. Your question on "WHO" gave Saddam WMD. I think you already know the answer but I'll answer and say the honorable USA did.

Bottom-line: Saddam does have WMD, I don't think theres any more doubt as far as that goes. After he invaded Kuwait he lost the right to obtain said WMD according to UN resolutions but since 1990 he has ignored 16 resolutions however some will still argue the point he's squeaky clean since UN Inspectors haven't located the WMD that the US gave him which the last group of inspectors reported Saddam had. Just stating facts, not taking a side or view.

MK / Blade & The Big Squeeze

Your right about that squeeze, its one we know was long over due. A few other sage traders have been talking about the big squeeze. Maree Howard said in a recent article, "The value of gold has soared on world markets as investors have switched to gold." Of course, major Central bankers have a real problem. When the public learns that the Central bank's gold leasing programme has turned into an unannounced gold sales programme, with the bullion banks in cahoots with the Central banks, and the bullion banks can't repay the central banks, heads are going to roll.

A rising price of gold threatens to bankrupt the bullion banks who dare not go into the market to buy gold for fear if what this will do to increase gold's price. So it's a waiting game. The bullion banks are hoping the price will go down and so are the Central bankers, But, at some point, the Central bankers will have to demand repayment. At that point the gold leasing game will end.

The bullion banks will go bust, the Central banks won't be repaid and the public will find out - once again - that they might not be able to trust Central banking. "

A side note, On Fox news today Steve Duchi interviewed that trader named Jonathan, the small white guy with the floppy ears and dorki looking face. I like the guy, anyway he pulled out a one ounce bar of gold and showed everyone. Steve asked him how do you get that.

Unemployment Extension: I mentioned yesterday about an extension on the extension and after getting off the phone with the guy theres some truth to it. Here's what happened, yesterday I spoke with the Unemployment agent directly and she said YES there are exceptions but you must call the number and speak to the operator.

I called this morning and the first operator said NO you can not collect again after you received one extension. Now in my mind I said, here I have two statements from the same organization that are in opposite view. So I called back again for a third opinion and spoke to another agent who told me YES there is a chance to collect again. He told me to call in my claim by phone beginning this Sunday and on Feb 13th they will call me on the phone for a "mini hearing" to see if I qualify. So there's hope, it doesn't hurt to go through the hoops.

Simply me, I keep hearing the talking heads say that golds spike is due to the fear of war in Iraq but I expect someone to come on with the truth of the matter and say its because of a weak dollar. After that unslaught and misery over 401's and IRAS's the sheeple are getting smarter therefore the carnival barkers must tell the truth or be found out again.

I hope I didn't get too far off the beaten path with my musings.

Cheers,

Rock

Around The Corner

(01/24/2003; 11:01:41 MDT - Msg ID: 95452)

*****203.0*****

The strengthening Euro and the European Socialist System must both be destroyed and Dollar must be strengthened IMMEDIATELY and at ALL COSTS. The "Crony World Capitalist System" which Bush and his ilk have profited from for generations, is swiftly imploding before their (our) very eyes.

Here is how I see this playing out:

A week or so ago I alluded to the probability that Saddam moved his WMD into Saudi Arabia last summer when it became clear that Dubya intended to attack Iraq under the guise of fighting the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Within the last hour or so I have heard questions from the media to the Bush administration concerning the possibility that Saddam had moved his WMD into IRAN and SAUDI ARABIA. The response from the Bush administration was, NO COMMENT.

January 27, 2003 - UN Inspection Report on Iraq states Iraq continues to hide WMD...not inside Iraq...but within SAUDI ARABIA.

January 28, 2003 - Bush's State of the Union Address. He reveals the US and British militaries have, within the last hour, been given orders to:

1) secure the Southern Iraqi Oil Fields,

2) INVADE Saudi Arabia from the Persian Gulf where most of the US and British forces have been stationed.

The Goals:

1) Secure Southern Iraqi oil for the US and Britain to compensate for the loss of Saudi oil. Sorry EU, you chose to not support Bush's "war" on Iraq so now you have to pay the price...no Saudi OR Iraqi oil for the EU until after the US and Britain have completed their invasions of southern IRAQ and SAUDI ARABIA.

In the mean time, the EU SOCIALIST ECONOMY/SYSTEM, funded in large part from high taxes on GASOLINE, immediately CRASHES because they have NO STRATEGIC OIL RESERVES to fall back on...and the Euro falls...and falls...and falls...while the Dollar rises...and rises...and rises...and gold...crashes to $203.00/oz.

2) US/British forces quickly establish a southern front in Iraq to protect the invading US/British northern flank (which will be advancing across Saudi Arabia) from attack by Saddam from Baghdad, and to protect the Iraqi (now US) Southern oil fields.

3) Sweep across Saudi Arabia in search of Wahhabi extremists and the remainder of al-Qaeda, including (the bogus claim of) finding Osama bin Laden and Mulla Omar who have been provided safe haven in Saudi Arabia. (Never forget...15 of the 19 terrorists on 9/11 were from Saudi Arabia, as was Osama bin Laden.)

I believe the whole Iraq ordeal has been a massive head fake by the US. The real objective is to destroy the EURO and the European Socialist System by disrupting their Saudi oil supplies under the guise of US/Britain cleansing Iraq/Saudia Arabia of WMD and killing Wahhabi extremists while searching for Osama and Mulla Omar (who, IMO, have both been DEAD for over a year now.)

In order to achieve this, the US had to first make sure Saddam couldn't blind-side (with WMD) US and British forces moving across Saudi Arabia from where they are stationed in the Persian Gulf...perfectly positioned to sweep ACROSS SAUDI ARABIA.

Check this map (http://www.guardian.co.uk/flash/0,5860,791671,00.html) on where US and British forces are stationed. Improbable locations from which to launch an invasion to overthrow Saddam, but perfectly positioned to grab Iraqi southern oil fields and then sweep across Saudi Arabia.

As for all those currently short gold? I suspect every one of them are friends and financial supporters of Bush. Heck, it wouldn't surprise me if these are some of the same people who established massive short positions on the airlines just prior to the 9/11 attacks. Looks like they are going to profit handsomely...yet again.

Anyway, I know this is a lot and I have rushed it...but it's how I see it all playing out.

I buy Gold and Silver as Insurance against the unknown and as a store of wealth.

ATC

GratefulForGold

(01/24/2003; 11:03:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95453)

Well, if anyone cares

AU -- +4.90
AG -- +.14

Hope it soars. DOW is currently -241.00

Daniel Druff

(01/24/2003; 11:07:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95454)

"I Like the guy,..."

HaHaHaHa
Rock:

"On Fox news today Steve Duchi interviewed that trader named Jonathan, the small white guy with the floppy ears and dorkie looking face. I like the guy..."

THAT was a dandy!

Thanks

ElGordo

(01/24/2003; 11:18:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95455)

@ Golden Bear

The radsoft website link you posted is a software site?
It has a republican elephant with swastikas on it!

Iraq was a client state of the soviet union for decades.
The only military equipment the have from the west were
mirage fighters they bought from France and a few artillery
pieces they got from Austria. Their entire military was sold
and built by the soviets. Tanks, aircraft, missiles, air defense
all of it was soviet equipment. They still owe Russia $12 Billion
they never managed to pay off. When Iraq invaded Iran they
had over 3000 soviet advisers in country. When Iraq invaded
Kuwait they had over 3000 soviet advisers in country.

The chemical weapons Iraq used on Iran were soviet made.
The scuds are soviet equipment. Saddam is getting help now
from N Korea-the scuds that were seized in the Indian ocean
were headed to Iraq from N Korea.

Go Gold !

Rock

(01/24/2003; 11:20:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95456)

Daniel Druff

Glad you got a laugh that but what I should have said was "I like the guy's financial views." LOL I watch "Cash-in" with cute Terry Kennan on Saturday mornings and little Jonathan is about the only one who speaks out for gold.

Enjoy the gold ride, it was long overdue.

Zhisheng

(01/24/2003; 11:31:19 MDT - Msg ID: 95457)

Slipped into the close!

But no complaints. I believe this is the 8'th consecutive week ending up.

This market is really bull-headed: doesn't care about overbought, doesn't care about filling breaks, doesn't care about excess bullish concensus. Just glues its red eyes on the red blanket.

ElGordo

(01/24/2003; 11:33:54 MDT - Msg ID: 95458)

Bad news for oil prices

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=578&e=1&cid=578&u=/nm/20030124/ts_nm/iraq_usa_oil_dcWASHINGTON (Reuters) - Iraq intends to "cause damage or destruction" to its own oil fields if war breaks out, and the U.S. military has plans to secure and protect the fields in the event of hostilities, a senior U.S. defense official said on Friday.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told a Pentagon (news - web sites) briefing that "a variety of intelligence sources" indicate that President Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) intends to "cause damage or destruction to their oil fields."

The official did not describe the nature of the intelligence information seen by the American military.

The official noted that Saddam's forces set fire to Kuwaiti oil fields while retreating during the Gulf War (news - web sites) in 1991 after seizing Kuwait the previous year, causing a monumental economic, health and environmental disaster.

The official said that "it cost Kuwait and the coalition partners over $20 billion to re-craft the oil infrastructure that was destroyed by Saddam during the Gulf War. And it's believed that it would cost us ... $30 (billion) to $50 billion to repair and reconstruct the Iraqi oil infrastructure" if Iraq sabotages its own oil fields.

Mr Gresham

(01/24/2003; 11:36:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95459)

Markets

As certain financial alarms (including POG) go off, all the trend followers who were waiting for "The Market" (i.e., other people) to move in the direction of their smartest suspicions are going to be re-calculating all of their positions and moves in a more restrictive, fearful light. Asking more pointed questions of those who've been typically BS-ing them on the other end of the trading phone.

Since all of these markets have long been priced to perfection, and previously backstopped by ?-knows-who?, the herding instinct will produce a cascading withdrawal of the last levels of passive support to the status quo. "One o' these days" might be today, or the next day much like it.

Since the "science" of econometrics has been used to model and quantify the interrelating effects of all these markets, prices, and players, it has been used -- not to manage the economy for greater productivity -- but to postpone the financial players' Day of Reckoning. (Things like possibly making sure the SUA -- Silver Users Assn -- was on the job of keeping any unwanted "signals" from spilling over into the gold market.)

Doug Noland's gonna have fun writing tonight!

All of the various prices and statistical measures (and the great Propaganda Machine) have been coordinated to balance it all perfectly -- right to the edge of the cliff. When it goes, it all goes together...

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/24/2003; 11:37:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95460)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. I've noticed that USAGOLD / Centennial stresses education more than most of your competitors. Why is that?

Randy interjects... Mike is way too nice to say this bluntly so I will. What I've noticed about the apparent rationale behind some of those other firms' operating philosophy is that, if they bend the client over far enough for their wallet the first time, they really don't have to care about getting repeat business. It doesn't have to be that way, but some people simply don't take the time to shop around for a quality firm. They should.

Q. What are some of the criteria a prospective investor should look for in a gold firm?

ElGordo

(01/24/2003; 11:42:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95461)

About that BBC report

In Play�
9:50 am PT Market woes : With the Dow down over 200, there is of course lots of talk about the reasons for the decline; we're not hearing talk of any one factor but rather a death by 1,000 pinpricks scenario: the BBC report on Iraq perhaps preparing for chemical warfare, the ABC report that Japan had urged its nationals to leave Iraq, the 16 Al Qaeda suspects captured in Spain with C4 explosives, and the approach of Hans Blix's report to the UN on Monday.
_____
I found the chemical weapon story on BBC late last night. Sent it to Drudge and he posted it shortly after. Don't know if it was my feed but I posted it here first. This is the story that moved the market. The internet is incredible.

TownCrier

(01/24/2003; 11:43:54 MDT - Msg ID: 95462)

Note to price-graph posters

To avoid posting (and promoting) competitors of our host, please consider either one of these following two alternatives whenever you want to call attention to a gold price chart to others at this forum.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO

or else this one:

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1

How about bookmarking your favorite one today. Thanks!

Randy

Pizz

(01/24/2003; 11:47:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95463)

@Sector

Although I am not a trader, I do follow the tape and price action as much as my limited time allows.

Since last summmer, Sinclair has been becoming more vocal, and IMHO has been "marshalling the troops" so to speak. He's patiently waited for the policy change in the dollar, and between Greenspans comments on gold and the inflationary "printing" comments, he knows policy has changed. As he states, markets are larger than the governments, but on the other side, if you fight the Fed you can get your head handed to you also. Now, with hedging, leasing, and the strong dollar policy out the window, were transitioning from a down, chopping PM market to an upward trending market.

The gold action right now is different than last month. The Sinclair's of the world are now, IMHO, walking the gold price up, but also trying to control it from spiking. The same with currencies. We now have a euro carry trade going on - sell dollars and buy euro's - a no brainer when interest rates are lower in dollars (held there by the FED and with comments that they will buy long bonds to keep it there) and with higher rates in the EU.

This dollar trend down is now unofficial policy, and currency markets do not turn on a dime, they tend to trend for years. Thus his first of five gold waves forcast, and a multi-year, generational bull market in gold. Even with his gold cover target of June 2004, if anyone thinks that we will still not have deficit spending past this point with a continuing rise in gold, they are being a little naive.

Where I disagree with Sinclair is his upward price target for gold at $1250. My gut tells me he knows it's going to go higher, but he still has to keep some sort of credibility with a very skitish gold and financial community community.

If you stop and think about all we talk about here, IMO any type of gold cover equates to a longer term (5-10+ years out) of closer to 3000 - 5000 gold. Only time will tell. With the total preponderance of dollars in the world, the introduction of the Euro, the Isalmic Dinar, the Russia-China connection dropping the Euro/Dollar reserves, and the continuation of the secular bear, I think the dollar can lose better than 90% of it's current value.

I also have this fairly crazy idea that we will have a two tier currency before this is over, with a 100 to one reverse split of the current dollar (stopping the coming hyperinflation dead in it's tracts with gold convertability) which will bring into play the face value of a Gold Eagle.

Thoughts and opinions and just one bean-counter's current vision of a possible future, subject to change as more facts and information become available.

Pizz

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/24/2003; 11:55:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95464)

Call today to lock in prices and get your order in the pipeline!

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what the weekend will bring.

Call USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals
(800) 869-5115

The Invisible Hand

(01/24/2003; 11:58:08 MDT - Msg ID: 95465)

How to make the war cheaper for the US taxpayer

Around The Corner (01/24/03; 11:01:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 95452)

The strengthening Euro and the European Socialist System must both be destroyed and Dollar must be strengthened IMMEDIATELY and at ALL COSTS.
�
In the mean time, the EU SOCIALIST ECONOMY/SYSTEM, funded in large part from high taxes on GASOLINE, immediately CRASHES because they have NO STRATEGIC OIL RESERVES to fall back on...and the Euro falls...and falls...and falls...while the Dollar rises...and rises...and rises...and gold...crashes to $203.00/oz.
�
===
Or is the war being funded by a private (oil) company?

ElGordo

(01/24/2003; 11:59:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95466)

Iraq in "willful defiance"

New York, Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for the first time in three days after White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said it was ``unacceptable'' for Iraq to bar scientists from talking with United Nations weapons inspectors.

Iraq is committing ``an act of willful defiance,'' Fleischer told reporters. U.S. President George W. Bush has said the U.S. has the authority to attack Iraq in order to disarm it. Concern that there may be military action comes as a strike in Venezuela has caused that nation's exports to plummet. Iraq and Venezuela in November pumped about 7 percent of the world's oil.

``The Bush administration is working very hard to keep Iraq's non-compliance with UN resolutions in the eyes of the public,'' said Tim Evans, senior energy analyst at IFR Pegasus in New York. ``There are no signs that the U.S. is backing away from taking action against Iraq. If anything, they're increasing the volume.''

Crude oil for March delivery was up 87 cents, or 2.7 percent, at $33.12 a barrel as of 1:19 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices were little changed this week and are up 68 percent from a year ago.

Rock

(01/24/2003; 12:00:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95467)

Invisable Hand 95465

Ouch!

Black Blade

(01/24/2003; 12:34:06 MDT - Msg ID: 95468)

�Mira! �Una Tormenta Est� Viniendo!

Indeed a storm is coming! Those words (or something similar) I remember from the ending scene in the film "The Terminator". The price of gold is surging and oil is surging. The US dollar is falling hard, the economy is in the crapper, and the war clouds are gathering. How serious is this? I have put most of today's information into the Daily Market Report (and it's a bit long so I apologize now). There is just too much information out there to compile it all into a single report. There are also many other small bits of information that many tend to overlook as well. As an example I watch the ticker while I am working my way through the data and news reports and I noticed the sharp rise in the shares of "Boots and Coots" (WEL). Well, these guys are the ones who fire oil well fires and many are pals of old Red Adair the famous oil well fire fighter. I also saw the stock market plunging and then I looked at the POG. I was wondering what the hell was going on. Did someone start the war already? It appears that Saddam has rigged oil wells with explosives and once the war starts he will give the order to set them off. It's amazing the little bits of information that when added together make up the big picture of the state of the World and the global economy. I have seen a couple of reports saying that Asian interest in gold was waning, so I did a little digging. In fact gold buying in Japan is surging again as banking sector concerns and fast falling Yen have lead the Japanese people to seek safety again. Also the next "April Fools Day" surprise looms when insurance on bank deposits ends. In China the retailers can't keep the gold shelves stocked as they sell out as soon as the next shipment arrives. Physical gold buying is picking up around the World. So much for the title "Barbarous Relic" destined for the dustbin of history. Those dustbins are getting mighty lean these days.

- Black Blade

BTW, the State Department has just issued a release to embassies and consulates to tell US citizens living abroad to be ready to leave on short notice. Also, foreign investors are bailing out of US investments driving the markets lower.

�Una Tormenta Est� Viniendo!

LimitUp

(01/24/2003; 12:38:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95469)

Pizz .........your #95463

An excellent scenario. It brings a grin to my face! GOT GOLD?

Mr Gresham

(01/24/2003; 12:38:43 MDT - Msg ID: 95470)

Note to Myself

370. Plan your work. Work your plan. How much of what I'm doing is habit pattern, or still slogging forward in a world that might not be around next week? In a time of higher volatility, even on high alert, I can still get pinched by some of what comes down. (Like clearing real estate transactions through the banking system. I really can't control what others do or don't do in these situations.) Clear the decks. Collect what's owed. Get liquid.

Oh well. My "Plan G"'s pretty good. Just gotta keep on keepin' on...

TownCrier

(01/24/2003; 12:43:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95471)

Big changes in central banking leadership

http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/current.htmlTake a look at the latest update to the Central Banking Insider (see url above) for a view of the many changes underway, and it's nice to see that gold wasn't left out in the cold...

R.
--------
Briefest excerpts:

William McDonough, president of the New York Fed and one of the most well-known and influential figures in international finance, has announced that he will retire in July. ... it came as a complete surprise...
....we are on the point of witnessing a raft of changes in most of the G10 central banks as a new generation of leaders is poised to take over.

...Newsmakers was delighted to attend Ian Plenderleith's leaving party, prior to his departure from the City to take up the new challenge as a deputy governor of the South African Reserve Bank. It was a very special City occasion, with the top brass of the Bank out in force, as well as friends both personal and business from far and wide. The financial markets were well represented, not forgetting the gold market.

Mr Gresham

(01/24/2003; 12:45:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95472)

LimitUp

I agree -- Pizz has a nice way of putting it all together, with some insightful "views from the back office". (Where all the transactions ultimately get cleared, or don't, and checks written, or not.)

Good to see you hanging around -- these are the times when I think of your return (which is about my only inclination toward portents, as animal innards don't much appeal ;)

Magister Aurelius

(01/24/2003; 13:07:40 MDT - Msg ID: 95473)

Sinclair's scenario

I think that Sinclair is being just slightly optimistic in his time frame for the Holy Hand Grenade of Adam Smith to go off and for the US to return to a gold cover clause. It would seem to me that a return to a gold reserve would throw a nearly immediate shock into prices and the markets by a sudden revaluation of the dollar. I could see this happening in 18 months if the spiral of death approaches a point of no return such as a game of musical currency devaluations to prevent trade imbalances for example. However, I would view the next 18 months as a time when the Fed and the federal government get together with several speeches to "prime" the country for this move. But as in my previous caveat, if Japan's banks tank or if the chains holding silver back break, then this move might be made tomorrow in order to avert an unholy of unholies, ie, global currency and economic destruction. One other thing that probably will happen if a cover clause is instituted is that the rest of the world will be encouraged to undertake the same step in order to prevent a repeat of the French run on the US gold reserves that broke Bretton Woods' back. One plus would be that excessive trade deficits would be minimized. Of course, that's in a perfect world. Hah.

ElGordo

(01/24/2003; 13:16:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95474)

China gold news

BEIJING, Jan 24 Asia Pulse - Gold transactions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which opened to trading at the end of October 2002, had reached 21,016 kilograms by the end of 2002.

The transactions conducted by the Bank of China hit 6,034 kilograms, making the bank the biggest trader on the exchange, the sole gold market in China. The transactions of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China were 120.6 kilograms to rank the ninth.

Gold expert Yu Jiahua said that the gold market opened a new channel for banks to make intermediary business and provide a potenial growth channel for banks to increase income. He said that the participation of commercial banks in gold trading not only activated the market, but also balanced the gold price.

Industrial insiders said commercial banks are making preparations for individuals to participate in gold speculation.

Chu Xinqiang, general manager of the fund department of the Bank of China said that the bank aimed at pushing forward the development of China's gold market and speeding up the pace of linking up with the international gold market to make the Shanghai Gold Exchange a gold trading center in Asia.

Ag Mountain

(01/24/2003; 13:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 95475)

Too much focus on Sinclair

He may have his faithful followers, but for me he's just a fair weather pundit. He was not out there in the public's eye pitching like other respectable men were during the past few years when gold was at its lowest and out of fashion. His shoes may shine today, but he doesn't have my respect like some others have who earned it when the chips were down. Think about it, boys. On that note, thanks to the people working here for the real gold.

ElGordo

(01/24/2003; 13:24:09 MDT - Msg ID: 95476)

Groupo Mexico strike and silver

MEXICO CITY, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Striking miners plan to continue talks with giant Mexican copper miner Grupo Mexico until they reach a deal, a union spokesman said Friday.

Miners walked off the job and shut down one of the world's biggest copper pits earlier this week in a dispute over pay.
__________
Groupo Mexico is 4th largest silver producer.

Magister Aurelius

(01/24/2003; 13:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95477)

(No Subject)

Jump Spot! Jump!

Golden Bear

(01/24/2003; 13:43:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95478)

ElGordo (msg#: 95455)

Sir,

You can make statements like that all you like, but until you show me the sources of information for verification, all you sound like is a fervent republican supporter in fantasy land...

TownCrier

(01/24/2003; 13:53:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95479)

A word to the wise, guys

Golden Bear and El Gordo,
I think maybe you might continue your current line of discussion to the peril of all future participation. Just wanted to let you know...

R.

Cavan Man

(01/24/2003; 13:54:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95480)

For anyone who'd been here or.....

anywhere near gold since 1999...IT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME. Don't be fooled by war talk. That's an unfortunate side show. POG will be a "BARGAIN" at $600. Believe it.

Golden Bear

(01/24/2003; 13:55:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95481)

TownCrier (msg#: 95479)

Understood Sir,

my apologies.

Cavan Man

(01/24/2003; 13:58:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95482)

A "GENTLEMAN B STUDENT"

(not too bad for a "BAD LOAD")VIENNA, Austria - Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) will get a "B" on his report card from nuclear inspectors who update the U.N. Security Council next week, and the United States is weighing the option of extended inspections to appease anxious European allies, officials said Friday.

We have seen the U2 photos of yore and our photography is much better now. Where is the evidence?

Tonto

(01/24/2003; 14:02:41 MDT - Msg ID: 95483)

Gold Spokesman

On cnbc right before the close, Maria had Dan Vaught w/ "I think " A G Edwards. What a sorry excuse for someone working for a commodity house. Tonto

Golden Bear

(01/24/2003; 14:11:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95484)

Rock (msg#: 95451)

Thanks Rock,

I watch the Fox show Cashin' In every week to listen to Jonathan Hoenig. His current theme is to avoid in general US dollar denominated assets and regularly tells the viewers to get some bullion, holding samples up for all to see... amazing that Cavuto allows it. The other guests regularly argue all the drivel why gold wont go any higher, and he keeps telling them "the trend is your friend guys".

I like that advice... follow the Golden trend.

Cheers.

ElGordo

(01/24/2003; 14:11:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95485)

@TownCrier

Sorry for the disruption. I will stop posting.

LimitUp

(01/24/2003; 14:14:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95486)

MrGresham:

I can't get rid of this grin on my face. My wife says I grin in my sleep. Reminds me of a really disgusting term used on Wall St: "We have ripped their face off" Those suckers can't touch my grin because I have no paper! ...........GOT GOLD?

TownCrier

(01/24/2003; 14:15:08 MDT - Msg ID: 95487)

This should drive home the point why it is essentially futile to achieve meaningful savings with national currency

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20World&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=world_currency&s=APjGhexQIR2VocmlnHEADLINE: Gehrig Says SNB Will Act Should Swiss Franc Surge

St. Gallen, Switzerland, Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Swiss National Bank Vice-President Bruno Gehrig said the bank will act ``decisively'' to counter a surge in the franc by cutting interest rates, selling the currency or pegging it to the euro.

The franc, which rose 17 percent against the dollar and 1.8 percent against the euro last year, may appreciate further in the event of a prolonged economic slowdown sparked by a military conflict, Gehrig said in a speech in St. Gallen, Switzerland.

``The biggest risk for Switzerland lies in a rise in the franc that could threaten the stability of the economy,'' said Gehrig, who is leaving the bank in June to become chairman of Swiss Life. ``The National Bank would take decisive action against such a distortion.''

-------(see url for article)---------

If that doesn't impress upon you the reason for diversification into gold, then I don't know what will.

Call Centennial for all the help and professionalism you'll need to get the task done right. Suddenly there seem to be a lot of scammers out there pitching their golden wares, so ally yourself with a reputable firm that's proven itself through thick and thin for thirty years in the business.

R.

Golden Bear

(01/24/2003; 14:17:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95488)

Tonto (msg#: 95483)

I saw it also. At least he resisted Bartiromo's maneuvering to questions why gold wont go higher. She was trying to imply that supply will come into the market and quell the price rise - he countered her rubbish and said mine supply is going lower and demand is going up from everywhere...

Did he own any gold? No bullion or stocks. What a grand spokesman for Gold's case...

Cheers.

Black Blade

(01/24/2003; 14:33:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95489)

"The Capitalist Pig"

I see "The Capitalist Pig" and Hedge Fund manager Jonathan Hoenig occasionally on Webfn and he does much the same thing by showing off either an American Eagle or Credit Suisse bar. I seem to recall he was in a debate with FOX economic analyst and Tech tout Dagan McDowell on "Cashin In" when she was hammering away about how bad gold performed since 1980, etc. and that his recommendation was was wrong for a number of reasons. Jonathan then said something to the effect "..and how have your stock picks done lately". Show host Terry Keegan kind of hung her head with a funny smile and the conversation stopped cold. It was pretty damn funny.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/24/2003; 14:38:40 MDT - Msg ID: 95490)

More Reserves Called Up

The Pentagon just announced a call up and immediate deployment of 20,000 reserves. It's beginning to get a little more serious now.

- Black Blade

Rock

(01/24/2003; 14:49:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95491)

BlackBlade

About Jonathan Hoenig, I didn't know. Only seen him a few times and he sounded more like a gold bull than anyone else but it goes to show why I'm the student and not the teacher. If he's a captalistic pig then he's a CP.

Black Blade

(01/24/2003; 14:50:32 MDT - Msg ID: 95492)

From The Mail Bag - NatGas Energy Crisis

Black Blade: I just received this from Energy Watch via email. Just to give you all a heads up:

Snippit:

Energy Business Watch's parent, Energy Ventures Group, will soon be publishing a special report assessing in more detail the supply/demand balance for next year. The preliminary results of this analysis suggest a high likelihood that storage levels will fall below 1,000 Bcf before the end of February - a drop of almost 2.1 Tcf over a period of less than 120 days.

Further, due in part to rapid continuing increases in the use of natural gas to generate electricity and to the continuing fall-off in U.S. production of natural gas, the rate at which storage is built back up during the April through October injection season is likely to fall far below historical norms.

By the beginning of the winter '03/'04 winter heating season, therefore (less than a year from now), the U.S. is likely to be facing an unprecedented deficit in available supplies of natural gas.

Black Blade

(01/24/2003; 14:54:41 MDT - Msg ID: 95493)

Re: Rock

"Capitalist Pig" is the name of Hoenig's Hedge Fund and he's very much pro-Gold. He also calls himself "the Capitalist Pig". He is always fending off the naysayers and thumps down a one ounce Gold bullion coin or bar during television interviews.

- Black Blade

Waverider

(01/24/2003; 14:58:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95494)

DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThanks Black Blade for yet another EXCELLENT market report. What an exciting day!

Around The Corner

(01/24/2003; 14:59:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95495)

RE: The Invisible Hand

The "war" is being funded (mostly) with tax dollars that are losing value (purchasing power) each day. The more the dollar falls, the more expensive it becomes to furnish the US military with equipment, parts and supplies.

Bush would have to be a fool (chuckle) to not see this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to kill 6 or 7 birds with one stone:

1) Grab southern Iraqi oil fields for the US and Britain;
2) Invade/Sweep across Saudi Arabia in search of Saddam's "hidden" WMD...and should the House of Saud fall during the invasion...oh well. By this time the US and Britain have the southern Iraqi oil fields under their control. So, the question becomes, From where will the rest of the world get the oil they need????????????? (We got ours...you get yours however you can.)
3) Attack and kill al-Qaeda/Wahhabi extremists in Saudi Arabia...15 of the 19 terrorists on 9/11 were from Saudi Arabia.
4) Disrupt world oil supplies from Saudi Arabia, leaving the rest of the world without any alternative source of oil (payback to France, Germany, Russia, China for not supporting the US in their bogus Iraqi war;
5) The "unavoidable disruption" in Saudi oil exports, due to the "war on terrorism"(got to destroy Saddam's WMD hidden in Saudi Arabia, ya know), would cause the Euro economy to crumble. Oh well...tough luck for the Euro...great for the dollar! Gold gets squashed. The cost of the war for the US would fall and crony Capitalism, currently imploding from its own greed, would have a second life while EU socialism would be dealt a major blow due to the price of gas (major source of funding for EU social programs) skyrocketing.

Like I said, I think this whole Persian Gulf build up is nothing but a head fake by the US. Build up forces in the Persian Gulf and make everyone think you're going after Saddam when all you really want from him is his southern oil fields. The main goal has always been to invade Saudi Arabia and disrupt world oil supplies while securing the southern Iraqi oil fields for the US and Britain. The dollar wins, Wahhabists in Saudi Arabia are killed and the US and Britain get a major supply of oil. Everyone else loses.

I may be 100% incorrect. However, the more I think about it, the more plausible this looks. Your thoughts?

ATC

Black Blade

(01/24/2003; 15:01:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95496)

OPEC says it can't pump more oil

http://www.msnbc.com/news/863708.asp?0cv=BA00&cp1=1
Cartel blunts hopes it can offset loss of Iraqi crude

Snippit:

DAVOS, Jan. 24 � OPEC on Friday said it could do no more to rein in runaway world oil prices, blunting hopes the cartel might be prepared to pump more crude if the United States launches war on Iraq. "The price is over $28 and we are making every effort to put the price back in the band," said Silva. "We are doing our best to get it there." OPEC's problem is that most of its member countries already are pumping at full capacity. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are believed able to open the taps any further. If OPEC cannot cope and war on Iraq cuts Baghdad's exports while Venezuelan supplies remain slow, consumer countries may need to release emergency strategic reserves for the first time since the 1990-1991 Gulf War. The International Energy Agency in Paris has said it is prepared to consider ordering a release from the huge stocks held by its 26 industrialised member countries.

Black Blade: The economy is in a hopeless bind. Without "cheap energy" it's "Game Over" � pure and simple.

R Powell

(01/24/2003; 15:01:23 MDT - Msg ID: 95497)

Sector (95404)

Thanks for taking the time to respond.

While discussing whether the gold is involved only on paper or actually delivered (gone) you said...

"If it were true that all gold trades are paper then the powers in charge at the Fed. must be causing this gold rally since they could easily stop it by simply printing more paper."

Can you clarify this? I had thought that the past many years of excess money and/or credit creation was one of the major reasons for gold prices to rise. With the issuance of money/credit out of control, added to the greatly lowered interest rates, dollar denominated assets are not producing enough interest return to attract the foreign held dollar investment needed to offset the U.S. trade deficit and support stock prices. I had thought this, more than the threat of war, was driving SOME investment into gold as a so-called safe haven place to store wealth. Doesn't increasing the money supply raise the POG which can not be printed?

I need to explain also that the question of whether the banks still hold the physical in their possession or not, in no way, alters what the present economic conditions will do to the POG. Whether the banks still hold the physical or someone else holds it, there is only so much gold. It is grossly undervalued.

Also, I'm not thinking that no gold has been dishoarded. The BOE sales among others, I believe, did involve the transfer of gold but I still question how much is really "gone" from the central banks as opposed to how much has been sold on paper only, never intended to ever be delivered.

That physical delivery called for would squeeze the market and send the POG higher is not questioned. M.K. commented on this very possibility today in the Feb. Comex contract. Now, wouldn't we love to see it! But, the vast majority of gold-carry, futures contracts and gold certificate ownership has been and probably will be settled with cash. Still, one does wonder who has been accumulating that portion of physical which has, in reality, changed not only its ownership but its location.
I tend to believe gold gravitates from weak hands into strong hands. If this is true, and if a significant amount of physical is leaving central banks, are central bankers still the strongest hands?
Thanks again and give my thanks to all at GATA!

How many remember Big Brother Bob from TV?
"Hey, boys and girls, what time is it?
It's Friday, Rich so .....
Happy weekend to all!!

sector

(01/24/2003; 15:08:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95498)

Turkish Leader Calls U.S. Hypocritical [And you thought they were coming around]

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/international/AP-Turkey-Iraq.htmlBy THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 3:09 p.m. ET

ISTANBUL, Turkey (AP) -- Turkey's top politician harshly criticized the United States on Friday, suggesting its drive to disarm Iraq is hypocritical, and said his country would not decide whether to support U.S. military action until the U.N. Security Council weighs in.

Turkey was a key U.S. ally in the 1991 Gulf War and was expected to play a similarly important role in any new war against Saddam Hussein.

The new NATO military commander, U.S. Marine Corps Gen. James Jones, met with Turkey's top general on Friday to discuss Turkish cooperation, which would be essential in opening a northern front from which U.S. forces could invade Iraq. NATO has promised military support to member-nation Turkey if it comes under attack from Iraq.

Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan's issued his comments amid a deepening split between the United States and Europe over Iraq. In Istanbul, the visiting German foreign minister, whose country has been one of the most outspoken opponents of military action, said the trans-Atlantic allies should ``cool down'' the sharpening debate.

Still, Erdogan made the strongest comments yet by a Turkish leader against the U.S. campaign against Iraq. Turkey is under heavy American pressure to allow the use of its bases to attack Iraq, but public opposition to war is strong in the country.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

It will be difficult if not impossible to launch a war in Iraq without turkey's support.

There would be no Northern front and there could even be covert support for Saddam should a siege of Baghdad develop.

@ Pizz Dittos on Sinclair -- The Fed will find a way to produce more paper as the gold price irreversibly rises towards $1,000 and up.

One can speculate how high. The answer is clear. High enough to lure metal back into the market and allow the cemtral banks to stop selling what they have precious little of...gold bullion.

The alternate valid question is, "How low will US dollars need to fall before members of this board covet them?"

Black Blade

(01/24/2003; 15:26:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95499)

American Electric Cut 1,300 Jobs, May Reduce Dividend

Cavan Man

(01/24/2003; 15:27:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95501)

Meanwhile........

.....Americans continued to line up to spend $3 for a .25 cent cup of coffee. (Thank you Viet Nam)

Seattle, Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of Starbucks Corp., the largest U.S. coffee-shop chain, rose 15 percent after the company boosted its annual forecast and said sales this month will rise more than expected

Golden Bear

(01/24/2003; 15:35:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95502)

Personal Central Banking....frontrunning the Fed.

http://zippycheck.com/ObsceneProphets/Forums/tm.asp?m=103&p=1&tmode=1"...Buying Fort Knox.

The gold bullion market is extraordinarily simple. When central banks divest, the fiat price goes down. When central banks accumulate, the fiat price goes up. So with the price going up in so many currencies the past few years, are central banks buying? Yes. Well, at least the insiders.

The Fed always telegraphs its actions. At least to its member banks. Its owners. Other monetary authorities also telegraph their actions. Who else but a central bank would announce gold sales in advance and depress the price that they receive? Who else but "insiders" would respond by buying gold at this depressed price? Could these insiders be accumulating because they know that the net sales by central banks are reversing course? Ya think?

Thus it seems surprising that the mainstream financial press is totally ignorant regarding recent Fed commentary. Those that have bothered to actually investigate are either dumbfounded or shocked. Gold Cover? Huh Wha?

Clearly most remain in the bubble. Blissfully ignorant. For now. Just wait �till they dig a little deeper. Or the facts are thrown in their face.

It seems abundantly clear, by now, that central banks and global monetary authorities will emerge as overt buyers during the coming year. The subtle shifts in policy and subsequent action will be impossible to ignore as they hit the mainstream press. This is already happening outside the bubble, that is, in the foreign press. A run on the dollar and a break out in gold is a distinct possibility at any time, and highly probable in the longer term.

This fundamental force in the gold market has spawned a cyclic reversal of historic proportions. We are in a primary bull market in gold. Brain dead strategies such as "buy and hold," "buy on the dips" and "dollar cost averaging" will continue to result in genius level outcomes over the long haul. So continue to accumulate your own personal gold reserve. While achieving Fort Knox stature is not the objective, a reserve requirement proportionate to the fractional reserve currency you have personally put in circulation would be most prudent..."
------------------------------------------------

GB: Greenspan's recent comments are pointing in the direction of the comments in this article... very interesting.

sector

(01/24/2003; 15:49:43 MDT - Msg ID: 95503)

@ Rich Powell About the Required Sales of physical Metal...

...needed [In the past several years] to suppress the gold price.Can COMEX or LBMA paper gold alone keep the price under control?

If it could, the price would stay down. There must be an originating title transfer of physical tonnage gold in order to establish the paper metal used on the markets to short gold. This causes a loss of ownership and associated claims at central banks for the bars and delivery [Deliveries are staggered by loan maturity dates]. This delivery may be outside the COMEX or LBMA's operational scope. An example:

The Bank of Australia describes their gold status in some detail in their 2001 Annual Report. They report 142.48 tonnes of gold reserves of which 137.89 has been loaned and is no longer reported as "Gold Holdings". That leaves 4.59 tonnes in the Gold Holdings category but their are coinage and other sundry items such that the Australian Central Bank now reports only 3.71 tonnes as "Gold Holdings" out of 142.48 original tonnes.

The loaned gold isn't there any more. It's with AAA counter parties. Several efforts to inspect the original gold bullion have failed. Not all banks have removed their loaned gold to this extent. The loan durations and size play a role. Also a bank may require the return of gold and this particularly stresses the system of fractional gold banking...loaning and then selling more than you have.

Now there is a significant counter party that really will return the loaned gold if asked for at maturity. The Bank for International Settlements. They do not engage in fractional gold banking. You loan them your gold you know you will get it back, if demanded. Not so with everybody else's central bank.

The rule is to sell the gold for cash and that means it's gone. Not immediately of course because the physical drainage of maturity expirations world-wide differ and the absolute need for delivery schedules also varies. There are actually guys that act as central bank gold delivery people.

Experts put the physical loss at many hundreds of tonnes a year. Perhaps a thousand tonnes per year. Not counting the standard gold supply and demand imbalances of 1,500 tonnes per year.

The big banks have the big gold problems. There are some by-laws that require legislation to dishoard gold [Swiss] and so there is this charade of "Gold and Gold receivables" nonsense reporting. It's not GAAP compliant because the auditors don't work by lumping assets as if they were groceries in a paper bag. They COUNT things for a living. They NEED to count things but are thwarted by the sleazy bankers at the Fed and ECB who have this massive scam to hide because their respective legislatures can't live with balanced budgets and must contatntly inflate their currencies.

Paper alone can't hold gold down. There is a drainage as loan maturities roll over and the return of SOME of the gold pool is demanded while other customers opt to roll their loans. If those customers [In ANY appreciable number] exercised their options to receive delivery of their gold back, there would be an instant gold market liquidity seizure as a result of the mutated fractional gold banking excesses gorged upon from 1993 through 2002.

We approach that day of gold liquidity seizure even while the Fed and ECB desperately attempts to delay it. The Eastern central banks calmly watch and steadily buy more gold...as everyone on this board should also do with both hands.

1340cc

(01/24/2003; 16:00:05 MDT - Msg ID: 95504)

Maria's interview/ Goldenbear's post #95488

I saw the interview with Maria and thought her guest said "I don't own any gold "personaly". Maybe his wife does? He did say "I do own some stock here and there". What ever that means.

I bet the Vancover conference will be a happy place to be this weekend!

Rock

(01/24/2003; 16:09:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95505)

What A Dfference A Decade Makes

During the last Gulf conflict the markets sought safety in the dollar. But this time round they seem to be finding safety in gold. The times they are a changing.

Golden Bear

(01/24/2003; 16:13:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95506)

1340cc (msg#: 95504)

Looking at the speaker list, it seems like it will be very interesting... too bad I'm so far away :(

Cheers.

Mr. Bill

(01/24/2003; 16:24:08 MDT - Msg ID: 95507)

@Rich � gold certificates

Those gold certificates sold by the banks did not require a lease of gold from the central banks. Those sales were bets by the bank that they had a sucker on the other end of the line. And the fact that there was no storage charge for this gold shows that this gold did not exist.

These sales are multi purpose but are gold positive to the extent that the bank buys a call to cover their exposure. Since there is no sale in the visible market, the purchase of the call would tend to drive the price of gold up. But in the market that existed until recently, there was not much need to cover. Gold was going down anyway. There were many entities that were lining up to sell covered calls, to earn a few extra bucks on their holdings. And some were even willing to sell their physical, as long as the collateral of last resort was a central bank. And if gold did start to go up, you could always cover at the turn.

The big reason to sell these gold certificates had nothing to do with the carry trade. Sure the banks were getting money for 0%, but why put it into bonds. This was free money, reserve money, that could be lent out many times over. And in those times, it was the only game in town where you just could not lose.

Hipplebeck

(01/24/2003; 16:27:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95508)

Around The Corner (01/24/03; 14:59:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 95495)

There was a guy in Germany who had similar dreams once.
Texicans love the big gamble, so you never know.

Magister Aurelius

(01/24/2003; 16:30:06 MDT - Msg ID: 95509)

(No Subject)

May you all have a great weekend and may the POG be affordable on your next payday. Let's hope the weekend is restful and slightly uneventful for once.

Pizz

(01/24/2003; 16:33:32 MDT - Msg ID: 95510)

@Sector

On how high the price of gold or how low the dollar.

Interesting couple of questions, especially the last, but more in line with a thread discussion such as over at Financial Sense. Might try it myself tonite under US Dollar.

Pizz

Hipplebeck

(01/24/2003; 16:36:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95511)

gold loans

gold certificates, gold loans, gold leases, special drawing rights, gold cover clause, reserve ratio, etc etc etc
It's the same old story.
In the old days, they used to move gold by wagon out the back door of one bank and into the back door of the next bank when people started getting suspicious. "See, look, we got plenty of gold"
It always ends the same.
A run on the bank.

Pizz

(01/24/2003; 16:48:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95512)

Cavan Man

Meanwhile. . . . .

No fair hitting below the belt. As a Seattlite I have to defend my $3.45 morning mocha. It's about a .50 coffee and .50 chocolate. . . .

Now, if someone wanted to start something like a Silverbucks, Say a nice cup of Java and a silver round for $10.00. . . .nah, buy the time I got thru the read tape both silver and coffee prices will be thru the roof (smile).

Pizz

Mr Gresham

(01/24/2003; 17:11:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95513)

3.70

I usually do 4 miles walk on the treadmill (mildly heavy breathing level only), so today I looked down near the end, and saw 3.70 -- "that's enough for today!" and gave myself the last .30 off. ;) Sort of a celebration. (There's also some NM in the fridge, BB!)

Now, my devil's bargain is only just revealing itself to me. What about when we pass 400? 450? (4.5 miles?) Am I soon going to be walking/running/cycling 15.00 miles a day??? 30.00 miles? What about 300.00 miles, FOA?

Giving up this gold-plated gut? (I guess that's a form of deflation. But only after much mileage inflation, however.)

Headline? "3000-Year-Old Metal Turns Middle-Aged Guy 30 Again!" (Sounds more like Nat. Enquirer, doesn't it?)

Next thing you know, I'll be cutting back on those Starbucks, Pizz...

Your Marathon Man,
Mr. G

P.S. When you get those mild sinking feelings "Awwww, I coulda bought more, back then", turn it around to the idea of Quality, over worry about Quantity. Let gold reflect your Quality of life, not quantity of money. Gold will have its run -- you get yours. The numbers may just take care of themselves.

Paper Avalanche

(01/24/2003; 17:24:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95514)

@ ATC

As long as the other 5.7 billion people on the planet continue to accept pieces of paper with pictures of our dead presidents (or simply electrons in journal entry accounting) for their resources I would agree with you. Let's hope they do.

PA

The Invisible Hand

(01/24/2003; 17:48:02 MDT - Msg ID: 95515)

On supremacy - Is might right?

Around the Corner:

You asked for my thoughts about Bush being a fool (chuckle) to not see this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to kill 6 or 7 birds with one stone.

My thoughts are that once upon a time, i.e. in the period just before World War I, the law (not the laws) had absolute supremacy over the politicians. Now we would no longer be living in such a Rechtsstaat (State (gvt) of Law (not Laws)) but under the rule of law (law as statute/act not as Recht) where only the laws have supremacy. But even if we accept the rule of law, where are the laws which allow Bush to kill all those birds? In my dictionary, this is called plain murder, terrorism (remember 9/11?) and imperialism (due to loss of dollar imperialism to buy oil, to manipulate gold and to fight off the euro attack for monetary supremacy).

Ah, the gold standard, before World War II. First they took the land from the Indians, now the land of the Middle-Easterns. By what right?

Frosty

(01/24/2003; 18:01:40 MDT - Msg ID: 95516)

****$377****

Greetings to this very fine table;

For many years I have read here everyday without fail and can not put into words or express properly my gratitude for the remarkable people who post at this great forum. Black Blade, MK, Belguim, Mr Gresham, Mr. Bill, WAC, Rock, Hipple, Simply, Christian,Piz, FOA, ANOTHER, Sector,Elgordo, and all of the other wonderful poster here. How can I thank you??? Perhaps I will take another 10 OZ's off the market!!! As to the next gold development, maybe the physcial market will rise after the US invades Iraq only to find out that Saddam has moved all of his country's gold into hiding! Best regards.
FROSTY

Mr. Bill

(01/24/2003; 18:31:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95517)

@ Frosty msg#: 95516

Well, you know Frosty, you could send a donation of a few of those ounces, in appreciation of course, to my favorite charity in Lichtenstein. I will email you my.. erh.... their account number.

a nation of one

(01/24/2003; 18:34:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95518)

@ Golden Bear (01/24/03; 15:35:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 95502)

You write: "Brain dead strategies such as "buy and hold," "buy on the dips" and "dollar cost averaging" will continue to result in genius level outcomes over the long haul."

--Not everyone who buys and holds is brain dead. Some chose the strategy because, during bull markets, it works. Anyone who has bought physical gold in the past month and a half, and has held it, should have no regrets. But those who sold at what appeared to be tops may have good reason to regret having done so. In addition to missing out on the gains, they also paid fees and commissions. Buying on the dips is also good during a bull market, because, naturally, in a bull market, the price will rise above the dips. In down markets of course, the dynamic is the opposite. If you buy on the dips, the price will go down further. Also, again, dollar cost averaging in a bull market makes good sense. In a down market it doesn't. One needs to remember that an investor makes money only when the amount of his investment increases. But a broker only makes money when his customer buys or sells. This mandates a fundamental conflict between every customer and his broker. Each broker has a financial interest in doing everything that seems reasonable to persuade his customer to sell or buy. The old saw that the broker only benefits when the customer's investments increases is a sales technique, not a reality. There may be exceptions. But I have not met any. 'Buy and hold,' 'buy on the dips,' and 'dollar cost averaging' are good patterns of behavior for any gold bug in a gold bull market. Those who recommend otherwise are likely to have incomes which, in significant part, come not from increases in the value of a physical item, but because their own customers buy and sell and pay commissions for doing so.

Camel

(01/24/2003; 18:38:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95519)

(No Subject)

*****381*****

It doesn't seem to me to be any coincidence that the declines in the dollar and a corresponding rise in the price of gold all began just about the time the National Association of Manufacturers made its well publicized appeal for a weaker dollar.

To those in the know such as ANOTHER these muti-decadal ebbs and flows of wealth and currency probably follow somewhat predictable patterns. The dollar was weak in the eighties, as Japan crushed the American automobile and electronics industries, but come roaring back in the nineties with American internet technology

Weither gold will run away with the dollar remains to be seen but so far it seems to be a very orderly well orchestrated process.
.
One short point about Lao Tsu:

There was an important layer of Chinese culture and literature that preceded Lao Tsu by 600 years culminating in the founding of the Chou Dynasty( pronounced Jo) in 1150 BC , and the work of Lao Tsu is clearly derivitive of its premier piece of literature the I-Ching ( Book of Changes)

Likewise Confucius, who was a younger contemporary of Lao Tsu, devoted much the last 20 years of his life ,while in excile'studying and writing commentaries on the I Ching , and both he and Lao Tsu viewed the Chou dynasty as a golden age and sought to understand how the Chou could have disintegrated into 300 years of inter-necine warfare.

The I-Ching was one of the only works of Chinese literature that was spared the Great Burning of the Books around 230 BC , however the commentaries of Confucius were destroyed except for a few fragments including the following.

Life leads the thoughtful person on a path of many windings
Now the course is checked , now it runs straight again
Here winged thoughts may pour freely forth in words
There the heavy burden of knowledge must be shut away in
silence.
But when two people are one in their inmost hearts,
They shatter even the strength of iorn and bronze
And when two people understand each other in their inmost
hearts
Their words are sweet and strong like the fragrence of orchids.

RobotGuy

(01/24/2003; 18:42:44 MDT - Msg ID: 95520)

Very Convincing Evidence?

Tons of chemicals would be required to launch mass destruction on any one opposition. If the evidence obtained through intelligence were extreemly convincing, satellite observation would be focused in these areas, and coordinates would be known for the location of these nasty existances. Why is it then, that the U.N. inspectors aren't being provided with exact search coordinates? If a country were to threaten your country with a possible military strike in the near future, would you go and tell them where you are hiding all of your weapons? If you truly believe you are being wrongfully threatened, you will most definitly prepare to defend yourself. Civillian Iraqis have been spending millions of dollars purchasing any type of weaponry they can afford, to defend themselves against an invasion that they fear will happen. How many weapons of mass destruction do the United States Envoys carry? Is it their responsibility to report the location of these weapons to the country they plan on attacking?

I understand that there are certain breeches that have already been made by Iraq. I understand that Saddam has openly admitted his support for terrorist regimes. I understand Saddam has used chemical warfare in the past, and is quite likely prepared to use it again. It doesn't take a scientist to know what various chemicals might be used for. If Iraqi scientists are questioned by whom they might consider their enemies, who say's they'll break down and tell all?

This possible war may have a profound effect on the POG, and POO, but for what it's worth, I'd rather gold be valued for reasons other than thoughts of WMD.

Your friendly neighborhood RobotGuy.

Golden Bear

(01/24/2003; 18:57:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95521)

a nation of one (msg#: 95518)

Hi anoo,

I didn't write those words, it was a snippit from the link.

I agree with what you say, and the context of that article (possibly didn't snip enough of it) was regarding the masses still being long the stock indexes on the "advise" of their brokers as the Kontratieff winter decimates their portfolios.

As I posted in an earlier post, I too am buying and holding physical, and riding the Golden trend.

Cheers.

goldquest

(01/24/2003; 19:11:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95522)

Just watched the Rukeyser Carnival!

His guest, Doug Cliggot recommended GOLD when Lou asked what he would be investing in! Lou, instead of his usual ghost white appearance, looked like he had just been embalmed! Rukeysers panel, especially Mike Holland, were just short of being hostile toward Cliggot. Ahhh, did me Irish heart good to see'm squirm!

bugs

(01/24/2003; 19:38:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95523)

Still a "novelty" for the masses..

Greetings! Been lurking here for several months and decided to post. First, I would like to say: This forum rocks. Much respect to our gracious hosts and all of the participants in the castle.

While this subject was brought up before, I thought to relay my own experience. In my neck of the woods, I decided to check the reactions of my co-workers at the office by simply presenting a Krugerrand with little explanation, and engaging in brief conversation for those who had questions.

From the vice president level down to the common worker, the reaction was simply, "Gee, that's nice".

Some thought it was "one of those new gold dollars". Our VP of Engineering asked me, "How much is this coin worth? $100?".

A few people actually recognized the coin after they read the Krugerrand insignia, and commented they had never seen one before (as if remembering something their grandfathers had told them. I don't know how long the Krugerrand was produced; the earliest I have is 1973).

I am a newbie in the complex dealings of the gold market, and everything else that is analyzed here. My only suggestion to my co-workers was along the lines of, "You should at least think about geting you some gold in case of emergency". Not necessarily a persuasive argument, but then I'm not the type to try to sell stuff to people.

Nobody asked where they could obtain gold though.

All in all, the attitudes were mostly "Gee whiz, what a novelty".

At least down here, the masses are still thinking their 401K's will return to frothy bubble levels, and their 20% annual property valuations will increase to infinity. Hmm.

Thank you again for all the great discussions; I will go back to lurking now. :)

a nation of one

(01/24/2003; 19:39:24 MDT - Msg ID: 95524)

@ Golden Bear (01/24/03; 18:57:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 95521)

Thanks for pointing this out to me. I have been wanting for several days to post what I posted, and I just used the first opportunity to do so. I should have been more careful about how I addressed my comments.

a nation of one

(01/24/2003; 19:42:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95525)

to bugs

Thanks for the post. I think it is good information.

Gandalf the White

(01/24/2003; 19:47:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95526)

WELCOME Sir Bugs !! ONE person at a time is MY goal !

bugs (01/24/03; 19:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 95523)
Still a "novelty" for the masses..
---
NOT to convert them to GOLDHEART status --- JUST to let them see what a gold coin looks AND FEELS like !! THEY will remember and then someday the THOUGHT will strike them --- "I SHOULD get some GOLD !"
Please, continue posting of the FUTURE effects in the days and weeks to come !
<;-)

And�ril

(01/24/2003; 19:50:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95527)

sector says:

"There must be an originating title transfer of physical tonnage gold in order to establish the paper metal used on the markets to short gold."

One small example to serve for all.

The bewildered leading the way in the fog? Did it not occur to you to first develop the expertise?

Nibelung

(01/24/2003; 19:50:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95528)

oil news from Reuters/Yahoo

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=578&ncid=578&e=14&u=/nm/20030124/ts_nm/iraq_usa_oil_dcUS Military Prepared to Secure Iraqi Oil Fields
Fri Jan 24, 4:08 PM ET Add Top Stories - Reuters to My Yahoo!

By Will Dunham

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. military said on Friday it planned to take control quickly of Iraq's oil fields...

21mabry

(01/24/2003; 19:58:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95529)

selling gold

if we get to some real lofty numbers on the gold price does anyone think dealers will pay premium over spot for eagles or maple leafs.i ask this because a few years back when buffet moved silver my dealer was paying no premium for silver eagles just paying spot.are we better off just buying bars or kuggerands. my first post after lurking since august.thnx

Gandalf the White

(01/24/2003; 20:01:05 MDT - Msg ID: 95530)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !As of 19:55 on Friday 01/24/03 Denver Time.

BTW -- Did anyone note that daily the open interest on the GC3G contact has been falling ! <;-)

QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003:

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 = $358.1 + $7.0 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a Low = $350.0
1/17/03 = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a Low = $355.3 and Sir ROCK was "King of the Hill" !
1/21/03 = $357.5 + $0.7 with a HIGH = $358.1 and a Low = $353.4 and Sir Goldenboy was "KING of the HILL"
1/22/03 = $359.9 + $2.4 with a HIGH = $360.4 and a Low = $357.8 and Sir Henri was "KING of the HILL!"
1/23/03 = $364.6 + $4.7 with a HIGH = $367.7 and a Low = $360.0 and ... WOWSERS .. A TIE !!
...........................................................BOTH Sir monTROZ & Sir Rock are "KINGS of the Hill !!!"
1/24/03 = $368.4 + $3.8 with a HIGH = $370.2 and a Low = $362.8 and Sir J-Bullion is NOW "King of the Hill"

===
ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

**** $750.0 **** Caradoc (1/17/03; 10:49:20MT - msg#: 94778

**** $480.3 **** Cometose (1/23/03; 10:01:34MT - msg#: 95329

**** $427.4 **** rsjacksr (1/24/03; 09:47:47MT - msg#: 95443

**** $426.2 **** drawmax (1/20/03; 08:09:53MT - msg#: 94990)

**** $419.4 **** The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - msg#: 94798

**** $404.5 **** Magister Aurelius (1/23/03; 10:23:42MT - msg#: 95332

**** $403.5 **** misetich (1/17/03; 18:25:29MT - msg#: 94815

**** $400.0 **** Sundeck (1/17/03; 04:25:05MT - msg#: 94737

**** $396.4 **** Bulldog (1/17/03; 20:05:57MT - msg#: 94825

**** $395.1 **** Pizz (1/23/03; 10:48:12MT - msg#: 95337

**** $390.0 **** Galerider (01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - msg#: 94724)

**** $388.8 **** Shanti (01/24/03; 10:20:12MT - msg#: 95448

**** $387.5 **** knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - msg#: 94800

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (1/17/03; 05:12:59MT - msg#: 94738

**** $383.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - msg#: 94791

**** $382.5 **** Hipplebeck (1/18/03; 06:47:33MT - msg#: 94850

**** $381.0 **** Camel (01/24/03; 18:38:52MT - msg#: 95519

**** $380.2 **** pinetree (1/23/03; 09:04:28MT - msg#: 95322

**** $379.1 **** ha_tey_o (1/17/03; 07:24:56MT - msg#: 94741

**** $378.9 **** erayboy (1/17/03; 03:05:04MT - msg#: 94729
**** $378.8 **** miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - msg#: 94805

**** $378.1 **** a nation of one (01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - msg#: 94720

**** $377.0 **** Frosty (01/24/03; 18:01:40MT - msg#: 95516

**** $376.2 **** GoldenSun (1/23/03; 09:26:38MT - msg#: 95325

**** $375.5 **** balzac (1/18/03; 14:15:59MT - msg#: 94880

**** $375.0 **** Mountain Top (1/19/03; 10:56:32MT - msg#: 94937

**** $374.6 **** harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - msg#: 94792

**** $374.1 **** Slowman (1/17/03; 06:10:05MT - msg#: 94739
**** $374.0 **** Zhisheng (1/17/03; 09:53:34MT - msg#: 94762

**** $373.5 **** kahulik (01/20/03; 11:08:21MT - msg#: 94998

**** $372.2 **** Houston (1/19/03; 10:30:11MT - msg#: 94934

**** $372.0 **** OZ (1/17/03; 02:14:25MT - msg#: 94727
**** $371.9 **** silvercollector (1/22/03; 05:15:12MT - msg#: 95191
**** $371.8 **** Time For GOLD (1/22/03; 11:17:36MT - msg#: 95211

**** $371.2 **** Achilles (1/23/03; 09:27:54MT - msg#: 95326

**** $370.9 **** Richman (1/22/03; 11:18:21MT - msg#: 95212

**** $370.5 **** VanRip (1/17/03; 07:59:23MT - msg#: 94747

**** $370.3 **** Casey (01/23/03; 13:32:42MT - msg#: 95349

**** $370.1 **** Black Blade (1/23/03; 10:00:48MT - msg#: 95328

**** $369.9 **** Ole Man (1/18/03; 23:30:28MT - msg#: 94912

**** $369.5 **** Truthcaster (1/23/03; 09:18:53MT - msg#: 95323

**** $369.2 **** slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - msg#: 94796

**** $369.0 **** wiley (01/21/03; 12:21:41MT - msg#: 95102

**** $368.7 **** Toolie (01/23/03; 20:26:50MT - msg#: 95394

**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750

**** $368.2 **** Zelts (01/21/03; 07:34:30MT - msg#: 95080

**** $367.4 **** Kagalaska (01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - msg#: 94721

**** $366.0 **** White Rose (01/21/03; 09:29:59MT - msg#: 95093

**** $365.2 **** pilgrims_gold (1/18/03; 10:01:47MT - msg#: 94863

**** $365.0 **** monTROZ (01/20/03; 12:50:24MT - msg#: 95005

**** $364.2 **** Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - msg#: 94755

**** $363.0 **** luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - msg#: 94795

**** $362.5 **** EagleOne (1/18/03; 14:02:13MT - msg#: 94877

**** $362.3 **** Renny (1/18/03; 05:15:47MT - msg#: 94848

**** $362.0 **** Albatros (01/21/03; 07:48:42MT - msg#: 95081

**** $361.7 **** mudr (01/23/03; 20:19:27MT - msg#: 95391

**** $361.1 **** Lothar of the Hill People (01/20/03; 13:51:40MT - msg#: 95013

**** $360.8 **** Liberty Head (01/20/03; 19:45:52MT - msg#: 95040

**** $360.5 **** Felix the Cat (1/20/03; 03:35:20MT - msg#: 94984

**** $360.0 **** Henri (1/18/03; 15:28:31MT - msg#: 94886

**** $359.7 **** Alaskan hunter (01/23/03; 14:12:45MT - msg#: 95355

**** $359.1 **** 24carat (1/18/03; 16:10:36MT - msg#: 94889

**** $358.0 **** makcumka (1/20/03; 05:44:13MT - msg#: 94987

**** $357.6 **** goldenboy (01/21/03; 09:16:39MT - msg#: 95092

**** $348.0 **** Topaz (1/17/03; 03:06:48MT - msg#: 94730

**** $203.0 **** Around The Corner (01/24/03; 11:01:41MT - msg#: 95452

===

INVALID ENTRIES
---
NONE !!!!!!
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.
---

THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February �03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 -----

The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old) goldpiece !!
Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin was
Minted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce.
(Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)
---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
(Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines"
LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!!
READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
---
LET the CONTEST CONTINUE !!
<;-)

sector

(01/24/2003; 20:07:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95531)

@Anduril If you are asking for another example of gold loan...

...losses Let's Examine Austria's Annual ReportThey report for period ending 2001, 347 tonnes of gold reserves and 27.9 tonnes of gold swaps [Interest Rate Variety]. This gold swap is reported as a liability.

Thus, their actual gold holdings are 319.1 tonnes.

At such time as the swap maturers and the obtain the rteturn of their gold via external delivery they will revert to 347 tonnes gold holdings.

Perhaps this clears up a misunderstanding?

Cavan Man

(01/24/2003; 20:14:09 MDT - Msg ID: 95532)

Anduril

RE: sector's postI have been lying in wait for you my friend. You busted my chops a ways back on the trail for a similar remark. Please consider PLAIN SPEAKING. You feign wisdom while cloaking yourself in deception (apparently anyway). Stand and deliver (something of value). What is it you truly mean? I admit to know nothingness. Et tu mon ami?

Cavan Man

(01/24/2003; 20:16:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95533)

Anduril

BTW, I am not defending sector. I haven't the slightest idea if he is right or wrong. Sir, what is your meaning?

1340cc

(01/24/2003; 20:28:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95534)

Bear Valley & Vancouver / Tex & Goldenbear

Tex.; I worked at the Bear Valley Inn for a very short time after I left Robert-Gerard Jeweler's. I also worked at the Slant Hole. So I guess that it was '79-'80 when I worked at Bear Valley. The Slant Hole as some know is a oil well drilled on a slant so you can drill oil that is on someone elses property. So most of my customers were oil men. I got to know a little about Gold and a little about Oil. Very little but enough to know you can make a lot of money in either. You must live in Colorado now and I now live in Texas!

Goldenbear; I went to the last conference in Calgary thinking I would be board stiff. NOT SO! The speakers were great. Even to a rookie like me. There was something going on every min. I hated to go to lunch afraid I might miss something. It was like going to a rock consert and meeting David Bowie or Mick Jaggard. You get to meet guys like Bill Murphey, David Skarica and Jim Sinclair. You know they are all a little different (you have to be to be this dedicated to a cause) but boy do they know what they are talking about. All the guys are very likable and will spend all the time you need to answer a question for you. They really care. These guys do this gratis. They don't make a dime speaking at these things.

ElGordo; Please don't quit posting. You bring up a lot of good questions & information and sometimes annoy. But even that makes us think.

I can't wait to see what happens with the pretty metel next week.

Go Gold and Silver

sector

(01/24/2003; 20:35:15 MDT - Msg ID: 95535)

Ishiba: Japan to 'counterattack' if N. Korea prepares to attack

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030125wo01.htm
Yomiuri Shimbun

Japan is constitutionally allowed to "counterattack" by striking North Korean missile bases under the right to self-defense if it determines that Pyongyang is preparing to attack this country, Defense Agency Director General Shigeru Ishiba said Friday.

"If North Korea expresses the intention of turning Tokyo into a sea of fire and if it begins preparations (to attack), for instance by fueling (its missiles), we will consider (North Korea) is initiating (a military attack)," Ishiba said at a meeting of the House of Representatives Budget Committee.

A similar statement was made to the Diet by Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda in May 2002.

However, Ishiba is the first to identify North Korea as a country Japan might attack under the right to self-defense. "Once North Korea declares it will demolish Tokyo and begins preparing for a missile launch, we will consider it the start of a military attack against Japan," he said.

Ishiba made the remark in response to questions raised by Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) lawmaker Yoshinori Sueyoshi.

Ishiba expressed concern over the speed of North Korea's Rodong ballistic missiles, which he said could reach Japan between "seven minutes and less than 20 minutes" after launch. North Korea reportedly has about 100 Rodong missiles that have all of Japan in their range.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Lots of opportunities for World conflict these days.

What a country.

turkey hunter

(01/24/2003; 20:53:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95536)

First Russia now Asia?

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/030124/15/36tiv.htmlsnippet
....But there are warning signals here, too, that are beginning to get more attention. This week, the Russian central bank said it was lowering the U.S. asset portion of its foreign exchange reserves - in other words selling Treasurys - calling the dollar a low-yielding currency.

Analysts believe some of the large Asian central banks - that between them hold the lion's share of the world's dollar reserves - are also considering rejigging their Treasury holdings. A U.S.-led war in Iraq could further accelerate that trend.

physicalman

(01/24/2003; 21:18:37 MDT - Msg ID: 95537)

silvercollector-1/23/03 msg.#95403--my interjection

Had to respond to your post to disagree with some of your points.First was about silver coinage produced into the 70's. 90% silver coinage ceased to be coined by the mint in 1964. After 64 40% clad Kennedy halves were produced until 1970. In 1945 the US govt. held almost 6 billion oz. of ag. (15% of all silver mined in the last 5500 years) in 1982 this amount was down to 135 million oz. and in 1986 at the start of the silver eagle coin program this amount had dropped to 127 million oz. and was all listed as the Defense Strategic Stockpile with no reserves held by the US Mint, Treasury or the Fed. This amount stood at the end of 2002 at 6.8 million oz. and the Mint will have to buy on the open market sometime this year putting further pressure on supplies.
You also stated that a local jeweler was denouncing silver, dumping it and using it for a doorstop. I would say that a jeweler would be considered somewhat of an expert on precious metals since he/she would deal in them everyday? Hmm!? Stockbrokers would be considered experts on the markets since they deal in them everyday. Would a broker have made you money in the last 3 years. Only if he were a contrarian and had guided you to unhedged gold/silver stocks and advised you topurchase a certain amount of delivered physical. That dealer you spoke to has a little grove of silver trees and nobody wants them right now. If he/she were to walk though their trees they would notice that the forest has been cut down and nobody bothered to replant it!
You also stated that everytime a digital camera is purchased that there is less silver to be used for film, not true. Kodak in their quarterly profit announcement last week stated that thier film sales and one use camera sales were at an all time high. Lots of people are taking standard pictures of important events like weddings,holidays etc. and if they use a digital camera,many are going online to have regular pictures made by Kodak/other cos. and mailed to them. I noticed last week a leading film manuf., actually the two biggies are putting instant photo machines in thousands of drug stores/grocers/large dept. stores. Large numbers of asians that are entering fatory jobs or entering the middle class are using/buying cameras/electronics of ever increasing quantities. So unless we have civil breakdown'severe worldwide depression etc,etc. only much higher prices will relieve a long term shortage. A short to mid term shortage is a fact. It will happen. Even under monetary collapse something will have to take the place of paper. There is not enough gold to do the job. And there is much less silver left in existance. Silver use was not started heavily in industry until WWII is bunk (this was not stated by you but another poster a few months back) Let me see photography around 1830-40. Telegraph around the Civil War. Telephone and electrical usage in the 1880's. Tens of thousands of applications in early, intermediate and modern industry where it is not feasible or possible to sustitute any other element. Silver recycling has only really begun to become more efficient and only supplies 35% of annual demand. Hey, i understand your rants and raves but respectfully disagree with them. Thats what makes the world go around, there are billions of us but we are all a little to vastly different. Gold could stall, silver could too but my bets are to the contrary. If i die there are only two things i can take with me anyway, my faith and good word. But my heirs will carry on with some Honest Money!
************************************************************
I trust everyone but i still brand my calves!

R Powell

(01/24/2003; 21:19:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95538)

Mr. Bill (95507)

Good weekend to you Mr. Bill. I agree almost entirely.

I had mentioned the gold-carry, futures and gold certificates when discussing the present location of leased central bank gold. I never stated that the gold-carry had anything to do with gold certificates although it may have. I mentioned these three as examples of the paper gold market. Most gold paper schemes are not designed to terminate with the buyer receiving physical gold. That was my point. This is why I have doubts whether the central banks have really lost all 16,000 tonnes of gold.

You mentioned that "the bank buys a call to cover their exposure." I would guess a future contract would be more economical as the calls are time-wasting derivatives. The certificate seller collects in full from the buyer for X amount of gold and the seller hedges on margin. This leaves most of the buyers payment free to invest elsewhere. Slick, no?

I believe this is what Enron did with dummy corporations. Basically Enron sold and collected in full for gas to be delivered in the future. That future gas obligation was held on margin but the full payment was already recorded on the books. This made the books look full of money.

It seems that the POG has recently passed many price levels that were supposed to have triggered a derivatives meltdown. Please reread your own second paragraph from 95507 and add one thought-- that hedging can cover risk, maybe never entirely- but most of it. Your thoughts about selling covered calls (or futures) are, imho, perfectly descriptive of exactly what happens in a long term down trending market. I have recently begun to sell puts now that POG is ascending. The options premiums in any explosive market are expensive so buying calls is no longer possible with my budget. I'd rather collect premiums.
I'm not sure that options have any effect on changing the POG other than some small price manipulating near expiration. It's the battle between the buyers and sellers of futures that really moves the price. All this is paper shenanigans, of course, and perhaps soon the realities of the physical situation will become more apparent. This reality will be immediately reflected in the paper price as long as arbitrage exists and delivery is possible. Delivery does not have to be probable, just possible.
Thoughts?
Rich

physicalman

(01/24/2003; 21:49:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95539)

21Mabry

You will see some changes in spreads at moderate/vastly higher prices as most dealers work on percentages. Say silver is at 5.50 oz. and a roll of eagles cost a dealer 125.00. His markup is 5% so he sells at 131.25. Say his small purchase markup is 10% for a single roll so then your price is 137.50. They have to protect their spread when they buy as well as sell so if silver is 18.00 oz. and their cost from a primary dist. is 400.00 for a roll of 20 eagles then their sell price per roll for large purchases would be 420.00. They have to put up a little over 3 times the capital (125.00 versus 400.00) and are making 20.00 per roll versus 6.25 still 5%. Another thing to consider is with higher prices you have larger daily swings in the price.Say a big move right now in gold is 4-5 dollars a day, silver 10 cents a day and their markup is 25 cents on silver rounds and 10-15 dollars on a gold eagle. If gold were at 1000.00 an oz. and silver at 25.00 per oz. and daily price swings were 20-30 dollars on au and 50 cents on ag. a dealer would get creamed if they did not go by percentages. The key is to deal with a marketmaker that has tight percentages spreads in all periods of market swings. Our fine hosts here fit the bill very well indeed.
Yes, prices spreads will increase but dealing with the proper bullion dealer will mean little if any changes in percentages. Hope i was able to be of service.

Black Blade

(01/24/2003; 21:49:30 MDT - Msg ID: 95540)

Market Wrap Up � Hartman

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm
Snippit:

Silver held support and closed the week with a gain of eight cents per ounce to $4.85. Gold closed the week at $367.70 for a gain of $11.40 per ounce. This is the eighth consecutive week of gains for gold, but you wouldn't know it by looking at gold stocks. The HUI Index is still working through the overhead resistance around 155. The decline in the broad stock market helped to hold back gold and silver stocks, but just hang on for the explosion! The dollar is in big trouble, the yen is in big trouble, currencies are being re-aligned around the world, and gold is in the process of reasserting itself as a monetary asset on a global scale. Silver is a precious metal that is being consumed as if it were an industrial metal. Which is it? I believe it is precious (read that as "scarce"). So we have a scarce commodity that has been consumed at artificially low prices where mine production is in deficit to demand. Sounds like an explosive situation!!

Black Blade: Most of the article is about the weak dollar and falling market, but this is of more interest here. I try to follow it all as its part of the "Big Picture".

R Powell

(01/24/2003; 21:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95541)

Sector

Commodity short selling

From Sector,....

"If it could, the price would stay down. There must be an originating title transfer of physical tonnage gold in order to establish the paper metal used on the markets to short gold. This causes a loss of ownership and associated claims at central banks for the bars and delivery [Deliveries are staggered by loan maturity dates]. This delivery may be outside the COMEX or LBMA's operational scope."

This is simply not true. Anyone with an account can buy or sell on the commodities markets. With one phone call I can sell gold or any commodity I choose. The only requirement is margin to ensure payment to the counterparty.
Where is the "originating title transfer of physical" behind the short position in silver? Ted Butler has been complaining about more silver shorted on Comex than exists on all the world's exchanges combined!
There does NOT have to exist any transfer of title to physical gold in order to short gold. The whole speculative category of traders are so-called because they do not produce nor do they use the commodities they speculate in.
I have sold silver, frozen orange juice, corn, soybean oil and many other things that I never held title to!! Selling short does NOT require any titles, ownership, or borrowing in any way, shape or form. Unlike stock short selling which (I believe) requires borrowing shares to sell, selling gold on Comex requires no borrowing, only a buyer. Commodity speculative shorting does not even imply any intent to deliver as long as the position is offset by first notice day.
Believe me, short selling requires no title transfer, ownership or borrowing. Selling that which one does not possess is a hard concept, think of it as crazy rules in a funny game if that helps. Now, how about the Comex short silver position which totals more silver than exists! Strange but true.
Rich

Mr. Bill

(01/24/2003; 21:54:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95542)

@Rich msg#: 95538 � Slick, yes

Obviously you have understanding of this game.

I was basically replying only to the sales of gold certificates, so some of my post might not have made sense if applied to all derivative trades. One point that I was trying to make in this regard is that I think that the gold carry trade, as reported, is not correct. If I were a bank, and could get money very cheap (either from selling gold certificates or leased gold), I would not put that money into fixed income investments. This source of liquidity could be lent many times over and provide much more in the way of income.

And yes, the covered call options game must be over although it was good while it lasted. Except there must be a few sellers at the tail end of this that are a little pissed. So puts is the new game.

One other point on the source of any leased gold. My understanding is that much of that is from private hands. It was made available because the central banks were the guaranteed collateral of the bullion banks. So most of that leased gold is still in the central bank vaults only to be delivered if the bullion banks cannot cover the original leased gold. Now this gold came from some very powerful families. When push comes to shove, we will see who really runs this planet.

R Powell

(01/24/2003; 22:04:40 MDT - Msg ID: 95543)

El Gordo

Leaving? Not so fast my friend. No one of your caliber is allowed to leave, at least until the POG has doubled from here and we have settled a few more of the world's problems.
This will be easier to accomplish if you help.
Rich

21mabry

(01/24/2003; 22:19:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95544)

gold spreads

thnx for info physicalman.this is my first bull market in metals.my position is 100oz of gold 3000oz silver 10 grand in pm stocks and pm mutual fund.this might not be alot for some people but this is a big risk for me.this may be one of the few chances a person gets to change their life for the better.im hoping to make enough make life easier for my loved ones and myself.studied whats been going on for awhile now and made my move into metals this past august i dabbled in and out last 10 years.so i looked at what i saw and decided i had to sieze the day.i hope it does not sieze me thnx ps made my final physical purchase today 10 oz its getting up there in price

Operative

(01/24/2003; 22:24:04 MDT - Msg ID: 95545)

Carry On !

Word of Encouragement.
The home computer system is fried, as in stick a fork in it.
Writing from a friends puter this evening. Just a note to tell you " I Miss You Guys/Gals". I MISS the daily report by BB. (BTW BB, thanks to you and the heads up months ago about the Natural Gas SitRep, I now have the funds to purchase the needed gear to get back on line, soon I hope!)
Picking out new systems this weekend so hope to see you all soon, keep the home fires lit at the castle, and Gandalf, give Spot one of those meaty lamb chops from the Castle's freezer.

Best Regards,
Operative

Pizz

(01/24/2003; 23:12:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95546)

Tax relief????

Think you're going to be able to keep a little more of your paycheck thanks to Bush's tax relief?

Well, I can tell you where an average of 85 bucks a month for my employees is going. Just got our health insurance renewal for 2003. Rates went up 20% accross the board for employees. The actual increase was 15%, but the owner in his ultimate wisodom cut the company's contribution 5% and tacked it on to the employees. When I tried to intervene, his comment was that they were lucky to get the Xmas ham this year (the guy's a multimillionaire).

Deflation? You bet. . . it's in your take home and what it won't buy.

Try motivating staff when all your doing is giving them less pay, more work because of cutbacks that are going deeper than the reductions in work to be done. Ended up last year bonusing my staff out of my own pocket, a gold maple to the long timers and 10 oz silver bars for the rest.
Someone in the compay sent a ham back to the owner with an unsigned note that said thanks, but it looks like you need it more than me. . .any you know, in about two years she'll be right. when the big go down, they have a much longer and harder fall, I've seen it first hand, and it's kind of nice watching in a macabe sort of way. . .cause the banks take everything. . .

There is no way out for a leveraged company in a declining economy except capital and cash. When those are exhausted, owners then do the only thing left. If you imagine the company as the Titanic, the CFO is ordered topside to continue to rearrange the deck chair so no one can see the problems (the Enron way out), while the owner goes below deck and starts blowing holes in the good side of the ship, below the water line, in a desperate attempt to let the water out. . .

Before this is all over, debt will be a dirty word. How many older Knights and Lady's remember what their grandparents thoughts were on debt after living thru the depression. Mine were cash and carry except for a modest mortgage, with savings in gold and silver coin.

Pizz

Pizz

(01/24/2003; 23:16:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95547)

Operative

Don't forget to send an e-mail to CNBC that you're buying some tech gear this month. Might be good for a few points on the Nasdog that I can short into. . .

Pizz

Black Blade

(01/24/2003; 23:31:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95548)

Gold Price Expected to Rise by `Louis Rukeyser' Show Guest

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20Europe&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=euro_currency&s=APjIJLRSyR29sZCBQ
Snippit:

New York, Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and shares of gold companies are worth buying because of where short-term interest rates stand, a guest on ``Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street'' said. ``Whenever the Federal Reserve has driven short-term rates below the inflation rate, gold tends to do well and gold stocks can do well,'' Doug Cliggott, chief executive officer of hedge- fund group Brummer & Partners, said on the CNBC program. He expects the price of gold could be ``dramatically higher, at least modestly higher'' in the next 12 months. Cliggott, who expects that the U.S. stock market will fall for a fourth year in a row, also said European bonds are attractive because European growth is slowing.

Black Blade: Lou did not look all that happy either.

Caradoc

(01/24/2003; 23:40:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95549)

short selling (commodity or otherwise)

R Powell wrote: "...Selling that which one does not possess is a hard concept, think of it as crazy rules in a funny game if that helps."

A verbal trick that may help is to remember the slogan "buy low, sell high" with the slight difference that you're doing the second part first and hoping to do the first part as soon as the price drops enough to give you the profit you're after.

Gandalf the White

(01/24/2003; 23:40:54 MDT - Msg ID: 95550)

Sir Operative ....... I hope you can see this ! <;-)

Operative (01/24/03; 22:24:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 95545)
Carry On !
Word of Encouragement.
The home computer system is fried, as in stick a fork in it.
Writing from a friends puter this evening.
< snip >
and Gandalf, give Spot one of those meaty lamb chops from the Castle's freezer.
====
SPOT says "Thanks for thinking of him !"
BUT, truthfully, I have been feeding him and SPIKE some of your "Roo steaks" from DOWNUNDER !! Seems to be working !
<;-)

physicalman

(01/24/2003; 23:54:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95551)

21Mabry

No problem, anytime. Would like to give a couple of suggestions, hope not come across as a total gloom and doomer. Might be wise to keep a low profile on positions for there are many scenarios that could play out in the future. If the perfect financial storm ever develops, most of what you say or do on the internet and any other form of electronic communication or commerce is trackable. Most of the fine folks here don't worry about the positions others hold or in what form. You have chosen honest money and thats good enough for me. As BlackBlade always says, protect yourself. To me this means many things and those may be different froms others here. I personally don't talk to many others about investing in PM's so less people will think to associate them to me if it becomes the only thing that will trade for goods and services other then basic commodities in a severe economic crisis. Think of all the people that you know. How many could you truely trust if there was massive unemployment,energy and food shortages,money was non-existent or no-good and govt. monthly checks quit coming to millions of people. Think the guy next door would not covet your wealth as his wife and children are going hungry for days at a time, his utilities are cut off,cars repossesed, house foreclosed and winter coming plus no chance for work. Say you can't sell au,ag or would be willing to trade for paper money, you would not show a paper profit, but if thats the case the only money left will be au./ag. and it would buy much more so physical is always the first thing to buy. You have chosen well.
Another thing that BB mentions by being prepared is food, cash, basic necesities. I will give some examples of how i think in these terms-food, 500 days worth,heritage seeds (enough to feed 75 people for 2 years with a 50% crop failure in both years),1500 gallons of fuel,canning equipment, portable heaters,remote fertile land for raising crops, 1 years cash needs,3 cars/trucks with spare parts for engine/trans. rebuilds and all electrical comp. 2 years worth of toothpastes, deodorants etc. I could go on but do not want to use up all the server space of our fine hosts. My being prepared may be extreme to some and quite normal to others . Of course the most important thing is the PMetals. I feel that if things do go very poorly that i should help as many others as possible so i have based my preparations on this. You have made the first and greatest decision on the changes that are to come. I just wanted to make a few more humble suggestions. Only you can decide what is best for yourself and your loved ones.
Physicalman

Black Blade

(01/25/2003; 00:09:03 MDT - Msg ID: 95552)

U.S. - IRAQ INVASION LIKELY TO BEGIN WITH STATE of the UNION, Tuesday

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/012403_invasion.html
Snippit:

January 24, 2003, 1930 PST (FTW) - Serious international developments are indicating that the first stages of the U.S. invasion of Iraq will begin unilaterally no later than next Wednesday and most likely as the President delivers his State of the Union address to Congress on Tuesday night. The Associated Press reported today, in a story little noticed by mainstream American press, that the Japanese government had today urged all Japanese citizens to leave Iraq as soon as possible. Japan has large numbers of its nationals working in Iraq in various trade and oil-related business ventures. According to a second report today on CNN Headline News the Japanese advisory was specific that all Japanese citizens should be out of the country by next Wednesday at the latest. The Japanese alert was followed by a simultaneous advisory from the U.S. State Department issuing a worldwide alert to all Americans traveling overseas. According to another AP story, State Department officials tried to downplay the significance of the warning, "but officials were unable to say when the last such advisory had been issued." A worldwide alert for U.S. citizens is extremely rare and suggests that the administration is concerned about a global backlash against Americans traveling overseas. Cautionary advisories are normally isolated to specific countries or geographic regions.

With crude oil prices at two-year highs and with U.S. oil reserves at 27-year lows the signs of a crumbling U.S. economy made themselves felt again today with a more than 200 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial average. The Bush administration has apparently decided to roll the dice now in a go-for-broke imperial conquest that has as its primary objective the immediate control of 11 per cent of the world's oil reserves. In many previous stories FTW has documented how the Iraqi invasion is but the first in a series of sequential worldwide military campaigns to which the United States has committed. All of these are based upon globally dwindling oil supplies and the pending economic and human consequences of that reality. On January 21st, CNN Headline News acknowledged, for the first time, the reality of Peak Oil and accurately stated that "all the cheap oil there is has been found." The story also acknowledged that there was only enough oil left to sustain the planet for thirty to forty years and that what oil remained was going to become increasingly more expensive to produce and deliver.

Black Blade: Sounds like an interesting scenario. However, the era of "cheap oil" or more correctly "cheap energy" is coming to an end. The consequences for the global economy are severe. This generation will likely get the opportunity to experience an economic calamity not seen since the Great Depression. Hydrocarbon Man has lived his life with blinders on thinking that cheap and abundant energy will fall like manna from heaven. It's going to be an "interesting" study of human nature. If it goes as I think it will, Hydrocarbon Man will blame the "greedy" energy companies for higher prices, expensive gasoline, and rolling blackouts. When reality sets in I would suspect that HC will demand that the government will set aside regulations for hydrocarbon exploration for domestic supply and to "secure" foreign energy fuel sources. Can Iraq be just the first of the "Oil Wars"? These are "Interesting Times".

omegaman

(01/25/2003; 00:21:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95553)

***********392.20**********

Long time lurker(going on 3 1/2 years) and first time poster. (Or should I say poster?) Just kidding. Anyway, on to the important stuff.
What I believe will be the next significant "event" to "boost" the dollar price of gold will be the realization by the general population that "gold" is on the move as well as some big "houses" not wanting to be left uninvited to the party. Some would say it is "the rumor of war", as in, here are the rumors behind the news,(Thank you Fire Sign Theatre) but I believe this "bull" was set in motion long before any manufactured disallocation was launched on the world stage. This being my prognostication, I will leave the judging of my guess to the markets.

Hello to all the fine assembly of this gathering,

Omegaman

ElGordo

(01/25/2003; 00:38:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95554)

1340cc and Rich

I'm laying low for a while so as to not annoy the moderator.
But....when the moment is pregnant....I will strike again!
Thanks for your kind remarks. I must admit, I'm addicted to
the site.

Other posters mentioned the talk shows so I made a point of watching Kudlow and Cramer and Louis Rukeyser tonight.
I have NEVER seen them so down in the DUMPS. It was incredible.
At the beginning of his show, Louis mentioned that gold was at $368 an ounce and then he mentioned oil had touched $35 an
"ounce"...I wonder what he had on his mind lol. His guest Cliggot,
when asked what he would recommend buying only mentioned GOLD!
He also said in his estimation that "fair value" for the S&P was
around 600! And that recovery was still several years away.

The total capital invested in PMs is such a tiny percentage of the
the investment world that if the masses just shifted a small
percentage of their portfolios into PMs they would go much much higher. I think that was what Cliggot was alluding to.

silvergolong

(01/25/2003; 00:44:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95555)

physicalman #95537

More musings on SilverNice post, physicalman, you include a lot of good info on silver there. I'd like to take advantage of the opportunity to elaborate.

I think it's interesting to think about what would happen to the world if silver went to $50 or even $100 per ounce. The assumption is that industrial silver usage would grind to a halt. However I'm not so sure that's the case.

Let's look at Kodak. Let's say they have about a 70% global market share of the photography market, I think that is more or less in the ballpark, might even be a little high. According to the silver institute, about 90 million ounces of silver were consumed by all kinds of photography. So this implies that Kodak consumes around 60 million ounces of silver per year.

At today's prices, that's about $300 million dollars. Let's look at Kodak's cost of sales for last year--about $8 billion. We see that silver accounted for less than 4% of Kodak's total cost of sales.

IN other words, silver really isn't a particularly big component of Kodak's cost structure. Let's say that silver went to $50 per ounce. Kodak's COGS would rise from $8 billion to $10.7 billion. That's about a 30% increase. So Kodak would have to increase its prices about 30% in order to maintain its profit margins on film. Not a big hardship, all in all, and certainly not economically crippling by any stretch of the imagination, especially considering it is a proven fact that the price of film is considered fairly demand-inelastic.

Other industries will behave in a similar manner. Electronics is the number one consumer of silver, but on a per-product basis, the amount consumed is very small. So again, a big increase in the price of silver will wind up having a very small impact in the price of the finished good.

Yes there is plenty of room for a massive runup in the price of silver--and the world would still function more or less normally.

Except, of course, that silver investors would become extremely wealthy!

ElGordo

(01/25/2003; 00:45:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95556)

correction

I forgot that Cliggot, a hedge fund manager, also mentioned
investing in Euro Bonds as he thinks they will lower their rates
further. He also said he thinks the Fed will lower interest rates
again!

Waverider

(01/25/2003; 00:50:37 MDT - Msg ID: 95557)

Global jobless rates tipped to climb

http://www.abc.net.au/news/justin/nat/newsnat-25jan2003-36.htmSnippit:
"An International Labour Organisation (ILO) survey says unemployment around the world has reached record levels and is likely to increase. The report puts the number of people out of work globally at 180 million, or 6.5 per cent of the world's workforce. The BBC reports the ILO report describes the world employment situation as alarming and warns that it is continuing to deteriorate. Two years of economic slowdown have caused the number of jobless worldwide to rise by 20 million to a record level of 180 million.

Waverider: The "Bone Pile" has taken on an international flare and sophistication! You got all these BB?

~ElGordo - glad to see you. Please see Black Blades post #95548 - Louis Rukeyser has already made it to Bloomberg!! It'll be interesting to watch what the shares do next week!

Waverider

(01/25/2003; 00:52:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95558)

Try that link again

http://www.abc.net.au/news/justin/nat/newsnat-25jan2003-36.htmHope this works...

slingshot

(01/25/2003; 00:54:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95559)

Workspace Humor

Hey Slingshot. What is the POG tonight?

Its $368/$369 now. Spike to $370.

I can remember when you talking about gold when it was below
$300.

Still cheap and available.

Naw, Its too expensive.

They can not give up the FIAT.

Slingshot----------------<>

Waverider

(01/25/2003; 01:38:19 MDT - Msg ID: 95561)

Nuster

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlGuidelines for Forum Posting Participants:
PROHIBITIONS:

4. Promotional posts in general.
Examples include promotion of your organization, yourself (includes posting e-mail addresses), a company you work for or invest in, and promotion of internet sites and businesses that compete directly with USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals

Your post is not welcome here as it violates the guidelines and prohibitions which our esteemed host has clearly outlined. Please refer to the above link and respect the guidelines of this forum.

Gandalf the White

(01/25/2003; 01:55:15 MDT - Msg ID: 95562)

WELCOME Sir Omegaman !!

omegaman (1/25/03; 00:21:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 95553)
===
Thanks for the first POSTING !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/25/2003; 01:57:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95563)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !UPDATE as of 01:50 Saturday 01/25/03 Denver Time !
Have a GOLDEN Weekend ALL !!
<;-)

QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003:

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 = $358.1 + $7.0 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a Low = $350.0
1/17/03 = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a Low = $355.3 and Sir ROCK was "King of the Hill" !
1/21/03 = $357.5 + $0.7 with a HIGH = $358.1 and a Low = $353.4 and Sir Goldenboy was "KING of the HILL"
1/22/03 = $359.9 + $2.4 with a HIGH = $360.4 and a Low = $357.8 and Sir Henri was "KING of the HILL!"
1/23/03 = $364.6 + $4.7 with a HIGH = $367.7 and a Low = $360.0 and ... WOWSERS .. A TIE !!
...........................................................BOTH Sir monTROZ & Sir Rock are "KINGS of the Hill !!!"
1/24/03 = $368.4 + $3.8 with a HIGH = $370.2 and a Low = $362.8 and Sir J-Bullion is NOW "King of the Hill"

===
ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

**** $750.0 **** Caradoc (1/17/03; 10:49:20MT - msg#: 94778

**** $480.3 **** Cometose (1/23/03; 10:01:34MT - msg#: 95329

**** $427.4 **** rsjacksr (1/24/03; 09:47:47MT - msg#: 95443

**** $426.2 **** drawmax (1/20/03; 08:09:53MT - msg#: 94990)

**** $419.4 **** The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - msg#: 94798

**** $404.5 **** Magister Aurelius (1/23/03; 10:23:42MT - msg#: 95332

**** $403.5 **** misetich (1/17/03; 18:25:29MT - msg#: 94815

**** $400.0 **** Sundeck (1/17/03; 04:25:05MT - msg#: 94737

**** $396.4 **** Bulldog (1/17/03; 20:05:57MT - msg#: 94825

**** $395.1 **** Pizz (1/23/03; 10:48:12MT - msg#: 95337

**** $392.2 **** omegaman (1/25/03; 00:21:10MT - msg#: 95553

**** $390.0 **** Galerider (01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - msg#: 94724)

**** $388.8 **** Shanti (01/24/03; 10:20:12MT - msg#: 95448

**** $387.5 **** knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - msg#: 94800

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (1/17/03; 05:12:59MT - msg#: 94738

**** $383.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - msg#: 94791

**** $382.5 **** Hipplebeck (1/18/03; 06:47:33MT - msg#: 94850

**** $381.0 **** Camel (01/24/03; 18:38:52MT - msg#: 95519

**** $380.2 **** pinetree (1/23/03; 09:04:28MT - msg#: 95322

**** $379.1 **** ha_tey_o (1/17/03; 07:24:56MT - msg#: 94741

**** $378.9 **** erayboy (1/17/03; 03:05:04MT - msg#: 94729
**** $378.8 **** miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - msg#: 94805

**** $378.1 **** a nation of one (01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - msg#: 94720

**** $377.0 **** Frosty (01/24/03; 18:01:40MT - msg#: 95516

**** $376.2 **** GoldenSun (1/23/03; 09:26:38MT - msg#: 95325

**** $375.5 **** balzac (1/18/03; 14:15:59MT - msg#: 94880

**** $375.0 **** Mountain Top (1/19/03; 10:56:32MT - msg#: 94937

**** $374.6 **** harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - msg#: 94792

**** $374.1 **** Slowman (1/17/03; 06:10:05MT - msg#: 94739
**** $374.0 **** Zhisheng (1/17/03; 09:53:34MT - msg#: 94762

**** $373.5 **** kahulik (01/20/03; 11:08:21MT - msg#: 94998

**** $372.2 **** Houston (1/19/03; 10:30:11MT - msg#: 94934

**** $372.0 **** OZ (1/17/03; 02:14:25MT - msg#: 94727
**** $371.9 **** silvercollector (1/22/03; 05:15:12MT - msg#: 95191
**** $371.8 **** Time For GOLD (1/22/03; 11:17:36MT - msg#: 95211

**** $371.2 **** Achilles (1/23/03; 09:27:54MT - msg#: 95326

**** $370.9 **** Richman (1/22/03; 11:18:21MT - msg#: 95212

**** $370.5 **** VanRip (1/17/03; 07:59:23MT - msg#: 94747

**** $370.3 **** Casey (01/23/03; 13:32:42MT - msg#: 95349

**** $370.1 **** Black Blade (1/23/03; 10:00:48MT - msg#: 95328

**** $369.9 **** Ole Man (1/18/03; 23:30:28MT - msg#: 94912

**** $369.5 **** Truthcaster (1/23/03; 09:18:53MT - msg#: 95323

**** $369.2 **** slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - msg#: 94796

**** $369.0 **** wiley (01/21/03; 12:21:41MT - msg#: 95102

**** $368.7 **** Toolie (01/23/03; 20:26:50MT - msg#: 95394

**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750

**** $368.2 **** Zelts (01/21/03; 07:34:30MT - msg#: 95080

**** $367.4 **** Kagalaska (01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - msg#: 94721

**** $366.0 **** White Rose (01/21/03; 09:29:59MT - msg#: 95093

**** $365.2 **** pilgrims_gold (1/18/03; 10:01:47MT - msg#: 94863

**** $365.0 **** monTROZ (01/20/03; 12:50:24MT - msg#: 95005

**** $364.2 **** Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - msg#: 94755

**** $363.0 **** luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - msg#: 94795

**** $362.5 **** EagleOne (1/18/03; 14:02:13MT - msg#: 94877

**** $362.3 **** Renny (1/18/03; 05:15:47MT - msg#: 94848

**** $362.0 **** Albatros (01/21/03; 07:48:42MT - msg#: 95081

**** $361.7 **** mudr (01/23/03; 20:19:27MT - msg#: 95391

**** $361.1 **** Lothar of the Hill People (01/20/03; 13:51:40MT - msg#: 95013

**** $360.8 **** Liberty Head (01/20/03; 19:45:52MT - msg#: 95040

**** $360.5 **** Felix the Cat (1/20/03; 03:35:20MT - msg#: 94984

**** $360.0 **** Henri (1/18/03; 15:28:31MT - msg#: 94886

**** $359.7 **** Alaskan hunter (01/23/03; 14:12:45MT - msg#: 95355

**** $359.1 **** 24carat (1/18/03; 16:10:36MT - msg#: 94889

**** $358.0 **** makcumka (1/20/03; 05:44:13MT - msg#: 94987

**** $357.6 **** goldenboy (01/21/03; 09:16:39MT - msg#: 95092

**** $348.0 **** Topaz (1/17/03; 03:06:48MT - msg#: 94730

**** $203.0 **** Around The Corner (01/24/03; 11:01:41MT - msg#: 95452

===

INVALID ENTRIES
---
NONE !!!!!!
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.
---

THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February �03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 -----

The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old) goldpiece !!
Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin was
Minted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce.
(Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)
---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
(Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines"
LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!!
READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
---
LET the CONTEST CONTINUE !!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/25/2003; 02:00:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95564)

THANKS, Lady Waverider ! VERY nice !

Do you still need some SHORT stock canidates ?
I think that you may now know of one !
<;-)

Black Blade

(01/25/2003; 02:01:56 MDT - Msg ID: 95565)

Investors chase the wrong shiny object

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P37978.asp?special=msn
Suddenly, dividends glitter. But the only thing that will substantially improve yields isn't a tax cut, it's more reasonable stock prices. Until then, I think there's more upside in gold.

Snippit:

We may just have rung in 2003, but Wall Street can't seem to tear itself away from the mania of years gone by. Hype and hope still trump the fundamentals that warrant neither. In addition, visions of dividend morsels distract folks from the caliber of earnings that drive them. In the frenzy to pay up for overvalued stocks, they ignore a store of value that has survived a couple of thousand turns of the calendar -- gold.

It seems to me that the current stock-market rally has less of substance behind it than many of the rallies we've experienced thus far in the bear market. The battle cries sound familiar: Now that we have been down three years in a row, surely we can't be down four years in a row. Of course, after the market had been down two years in a row, people thought a third down year was unthinkable. And let's not forget about the other excuses that fall into what I have called the category of arm-waving: the third year of the presidential cycle, or the seasonal period, or the fact that bullish analysts have been fired, etc. Arm-waving still seems to carry the day. It certainly isn't value, as values in the aggregate don't exist.

There seems to be a fair amount of misperception about what an investment in gold stands for. In my opinion, a gold purchase represents a lack of confidence, or fear. People buy gold because they lack confidence in their government or their currency, or they fear for their safety. Obviously, in the mania, people didn't perceive a need for gold, because what could express confidence better than valuing worthless companies like Internet stocks at valuations in the tens, twenties, if not hundreds of billions of dollars. It's no surprise that when people were doing that, they had no use for gold. But the stock mania was a false reference point. Today's world is nowhere near what people believed it was when phrases like "new era" and "new economy" were being bandied about. The world is a dangerous place, with plenty of risk to go around. We are at a moment in time where people appear to understand that given the risks, an insurance policy position in gold is warranted. Here I am not speaking of the risks of terrorism or a war with Iraq. What I am referring to are the risks associated with paper money. The money that you carry around in your wallet or use via your credit card obviously is created at warp speed by the government. The Fed has told you in no uncertain terms that it will do everything to fight deflation. It is not alone. The heads of the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England will all be run by new people in the course of the next six months, and they appear to be of the same mind as Fed Governor Ben Bernanke, aka Mr. Printing Press.

Black Blade: Bill Fleckenstein is right about Gold as insurance. Those who held Gold along with their investments do not feel the claws and teeth of the bear. I now wait for the Lemmings to see all the fuss over Gold in the media and that it's the only investment running hard and fast. Why I bet even Barrick stock might actually gain 5% or 6% as the Lemmings plunge into Gold funds. Heck, they might even find out that they can actually buy the metal. By then we will be "stylin� and profilin�". ;-)

And�ril

(01/25/2003; 02:06:04 MDT - Msg ID: 95566)

Cavan Man, "lying in wait" you demand standing and delivery (something of value)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Cavan Man (01/24/03; 20:14:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 95532)
Anduril
RE: sector's post
I have been lying in wait for you my friend
Please consider PLAIN SPEAKING
You feign wisdom
Stand and deliver (something of value)
What is it you truly mean?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

What payment do you offer, or do we see a wanting child upon Santa's lap pinch and pull the beard?

WRITING PLAIN so you "hear" the words. Do you know the touchstone?

{a Houghton Mifflin Dictionary}
TOUCH-STONE: noun. 1. A hard black stone, as jasper or basalt, formerly used to test the quality of gold or silver by comparing the streak left on the stone by one of these metals with that of a standard alloy.

As the touchstone in use delivers (adds) no gold, you see no value? You would throw it far away with greedy words wanting only free gold?

There is no feigning the mark upon the touchstone. Mr. sector made his streak. Analysis revealed pyrite. What role is here for wisdom or its feign?

For more "plain speaking" consider also the words of your own man on this: R Powell (01/24/03; 21:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 95541). Of many pyrite tries he strikes gold this try.

You may read the touchstone, or you may plainly throw it at a tree.

LeSin

(01/25/2003; 05:44:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95567)

Sharing of Knowledge by Discussion as Gentle-Persons

Sirs Anduril and ALL

I too share C/Man's desire for simple, clear and gentle discussion. We do not log on here to discuss riddles, folk lore or to receive abstract ridicule.

One may be in a position of great understanding, have vast knowledge, insight, and understand the machinations of complex banking and maro-economic and think some questions to be far too simple for one and thier circle to address.

However, Sirs & Ladies, if one cannot communicate with the simpliest of persons, a child or a near-moron like me one fails thier great intellect and renders oneself useless to this or any other forum. Being kute is nice, being cheeky can be acceptable, even being a wise guy can be tolerated, but down right caustic and high minded arrogance is useless for all here.

This is a wonderful forum with many great minds, yours included, that have much to offer. It is no little wonder for most readers and contributors that the precious metals markets are manipulated, corrupted and aborted in so many complex ways. Paper markets, fiat currencies, physical PM markets, rumours & threats of wars, real wars, Govts. that lie and cheat, corrupt public companies and their Bankers, impotent government watchdogs all form a nasty web of deceitful arrogance that requires navigation and understanding.

Sir Anduril and ALL - we need your sharp minds and wits to untangle this complex tapestry, thread by thread, knit by knit, for our better understanding. I believe it is called sharing and cooperation by gentle discussion, in the spirit of the team - the American Dream -Way. Is it not?

Sincerely - "S"

LeSin

(01/25/2003; 05:50:41 MDT - Msg ID: 95568)

Further More

ALL

For one to be told "Just buy gold coin & bullion". "Don't have to worry about the Fed or other stuff you and cannot change." Is simply not good enough.

YES! "Get Gold" "Get You Some" "It is heavey for the price"

I understand and have learned from this forum to be in coin and bullion, but that is not the end of the discussion it is the end of the matter.

Cheers "S"

Leigh

(01/25/2003; 06:51:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95570)

INO Quotes

Do my eyes deceive me? $378.70 on INO??? I just checked at TheBullionDesk, and they're saying the same thing. What's up?

turkey hunter

(01/25/2003; 07:50:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95571)

INO Chart gold

Hi Leigh.
The ino gold chart doesn't show a spike to $378. must be a mis-print. I checked another chart and no spike to $378.

Caradoc

(01/25/2003; 08:06:56 MDT - Msg ID: 95572)

From the margins of a talking head's dayplanner...

* Pitch a short war in Iraq and gold dropping to 320.

* Pick up another 20 ounces in case things get bad.

* milk, bread, sauerkraut

Belgian

(01/25/2003; 08:23:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95573)

War - Debates....

Davos...Istambul...Euroland...
The longer non-Americans, debate on the M.E. war...the more a general *aversion* is growing. Quite remarkable, against the 9/11 background. It is almost no matter anymore about who's right or wrong...but a lot of attention, grows towards the hidden motives for the WOT in relation to the M.E. AND other regions. That's something new ! Whatever the outcome on Iraq...the US (dollar-block) will lose old friends and allies. Worse, the US (the US$) will encounter more hostility. This is a very serious reason to be concerned !

It is during such circumstances that drastic decissions are becoming highly probable. Not in the least oil for euro and the euro-currency using Gold as leverage for its concept, as to realize its ambitions to become the new reserve currency.

Is it for this (or other) reason(s) that Sinclair is suggesting a renewed Gold close for the dollar, copied from the euro-concept ? This in late anticipation of what is already, really happening ? Thoughts anyone ?

Tate

(01/25/2003; 08:24:55 MDT - Msg ID: 95574)

Gold is nature's masterpiece. ****384.50****

Five years ago I bought not well known European painter. This was a small oil painting and cost me several thousand dollars. My friend, art dealer, said: Bob, 15 years later this painting will buy good education for your son. To me it is a masterpiece and in time it will do what my friend said .
Gold is nature's masterpiece. For that matter I will set immediate price of it at ****384.50****

CoBra(too)

(01/25/2003; 08:29:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95575)

A very special Golden Weekend to All

& in particular to our great host MK; Thanks for maintaining this grand castle of light and wisdom.

And off topic, I've been looking forward to watch todays
downhill skiing event at the worlds most challenging run
the "Streif" in Kitzb�hel, TIrol. I've almost predicted the first ever US victory and it has happened. Daron, dubbed
"one-Ski" Rahlves has made it true by split seconds. Even the Austrians are happy, as Daron is a very likeable guy and a great athlete. Congrats!

Wish my prophesies towards the POG in future will be as accurate, though as Gold's ascending pattern gets steeper
a free gold-market already appears on the horizon.

What me worry? cb2

misetich

(01/25/2003; 08:42:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95576)

$8 Billion Surplus Withers at Agency Insuring Pensions

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/25/business/25PENS.htmlSnip:

By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH

The federal agency that insures the pensions of some 44 million Americans has been pounded by a succession of big corporate bankruptcies and has burned through its entire $8 billion surplus in one year.
The agency, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, provides protection to retirees in case of a failure, much as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation protects depositors when a bank fails. Though it can continue to make its current payments, the agency is expected to disclose a deficit of $1 billion to $2 billion at the end of this month.

Its soundness is likely to deteriorate further in the coming months, as more bankrupt companies find themselves unable to fulfill their promises to tens of thousands of present and future retirees. US Airways, United Airlines and Kmart are among the companies struggling to emerge from bankruptcy protection under the weight of large underfunded pension plans.
An awareness of the pension agency's rapidly diminishing strength is already fueling a debate in Washington about whether the guaranteed retirement benefits of millions of Americans are at risk and, if so, who should pay to make them airtight.
...........
That means that if the agency's troubles worsen, businesses will be asked to pay higher premiums, put more cash into their own pension plans or both. The agency is also considering a new way of assessing premiums, making the companies with the weakest pension funds pay the most.
*********
Misetich

Its the tip of the iceberg as the Big Bad Bear continues its unrelenteless punishment of the euphoria, manipulations, frauds, unethical actions of auditors, CEO's, Senior Management, US Treasury and Federal Reserve cheerleading -

Gold preserves wealth at time of crisis- the financial foundations are being threatned -

Main street is unaware - Wall Street delusional and still in denial waiting for the comeback - those who have followed their advise in recent years have paid a dear price -

Gold shines in turbulent times - its only the beginning of the gold bull!

Got gold?

Paper Avalanche

(01/25/2003; 08:54:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95577)

@ Leigh - INO Quote

Holy smokes Batman! The ask is $378.70. That is a $10.85 bid/ask delta. Anyone smell COMEX default next week? Could it be that some big players fear having to deliver physical gold?

Methinks next week the gold train leaves the station and will be traveling at such a rate of speed that few will be able to catch a ride.

Paper Avalanche - literally

sector

(01/25/2003; 09:13:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95578)

@ And�ril --- The Riddler ---

The Gold Mysteries of Gotham City are Difficult Enough without......another too-cute-for-real-words, cryptic riddler running about Gotham City.

For the record: (1) Gold loans, swaps and forwards are gold sales (2) as a result of the sales, central bank lessors no longer have title to the loaned physical gold in their vaults (3) they have a contract to receive interest payments on that gold and ultimately, the return of the gold [Via whatever means] at the loan contract's maturity (4) Some of the gold in the central bank vaults under loan or swap has been removed by the title holders (5) The large banks [France and the BIS excepted] do not report gold holdings apart from gold loans [This, in order to conceal the magnitude of the loans (which are sales)].

In the case of Australia nearly all the gold claimed as reserves is not present in their vaults according to officers at the bank. In the case of Austria, 27.9 tonnes of swapped gold is carried as a liability as reported in their 2001 Annual report and also is not reported as holdings.

There are numerous other examples of gold loan reduction of gold holdings at central banks.

The current gold rally [Which tracks a near linear upwards path with a .89 R^2 regression value] began precisely on Dec 5th 2002. This was one day after "Gold derivatives--Moving Towards Checkmate" was published at http://www.goldensextant.com and incidentally the day SETREAS O�Neill and Presidential Advisor Lawrence Lindsay [A strong Dollar Proponent] were fired.

In that commentary, it was revealed for the first time that the BIS reported 16,000 tonnes of forwards, swaps and gold loans in the Triennial Survey of all central banks. The BIS data confirmed earlier reports by Veneroso and GATA and vindicated Bill Murphy, its Chairman.

The major gold investors now have the truth regarding the massive central bank gold loans and it seems they are running with that truth even as the Strong Dollar Policy of Lawrence Lindsay, et al, melts.

If some "Riddlers" have difficulty with the gold loan truth, that's fine.

There will always be a Flat Earth Society and upon it...people who imagine they are colorful characters in a vintage Batman comic book.

a nation of one

(01/25/2003; 09:18:09 MDT - Msg ID: 95579)

earl

http://energycrisis.org/de/lecture.html
At the link is an item worthy of your most serious attention.

Skydog

(01/25/2003; 09:18:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95580)

@ LeSin...Hear! Hear! your msg#: 95567

As a senior project manager for over 20 years, a cardinal rule of all the teams I ever led was to present all communication (written and spoken) in a form and syntax so that a busy reader/hearer could intuitively grasp the meaning within 30 seconds. I submit that the posters to this board consider the same. To choose otherwise is IMO, an exercise in "mental masturbation" whose intent it is to provide self gratification to the sender only.

In other words noble knights and ladies, say what you want to say in two-syllable words or less whose meaning we all can grasp or don't say anything at all.

Sorry Randy, just had to rant.

Skydog

Gold Tooth

(01/25/2003; 09:22:02 MDT - Msg ID: 95581)

test

cyberbat

(01/25/2003; 09:53:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95582)

@Skydog

Amen brother!

Mr. Bill

(01/25/2003; 09:56:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95583)

@Skydog msg#: 95580

"say what you want to say in two-syllable words or less whose meaning we all can grasp or don't say anything at all"

Sure, lets dumb it down to the lowest common denominator. Then everyone will grasp. Somehow, I do not think that is what is envisioned here.

Now there was nothing cryptic about And�ril's post. He was calling a spade a spade. Of course, if you did not understand what a spade was, then you might have had trouble interpreting his post. A lack of comprehension is not a license to shoot the messenger. Just ask for an interpretation, and if the author so wishes, it will be dumbed down for you.

Mr Gresham

(01/25/2003; 10:12:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95584)

sector

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary23.html#anchor19855Thanks for continuing so patiently and persistingly to deliver "one-step-ahead" insight and commentary to all of us who appreciate it so much.

Here's the Reg Howe link you mentioned. I hadn't gotten to it before.

Pizz

(01/25/2003; 10:12:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95585)

Cyberbat, Skydog

I'll make it easy for you, how about two one syllable words?

BUY GOLD

Nuff said on that topic.

Pizz

Mr Gresham

(01/25/2003; 10:14:15 MDT - Msg ID: 95586)

Blink, blink!

Just got my glasses on -- is that 378 I'm seeing??? I thought we were at 368, or most 370? Who's open?

White Hills

(01/25/2003; 10:14:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95587)

Christian Msg#95569

Sir, Why do you insist on working into your posts on economics a constant political and personal attack on President Bush and this country? To insinuate that President Bush is a murderer and in league with the Bin Ladin family and that somehow 9/11 was a conspiracy by some imaginary evil doers, which of course you identify very clearly, is IMO a attack on this country. Again I have to point out the rules that govern this Forum and ask the Administration to remind all of those rules. White Hills

goldquest

(01/25/2003; 10:18:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95588)

$378.70 Ask

showing on the Forex Quotes also.

21mabry

(01/25/2003; 10:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95589)

preparing

thnx physical man it was wise advice.a quick story of mine i was visiting my brother in ny ny in brooklyn went over too manhatten the next morning got off the l train at 14th street walked a bit looked south the trade center was on fire it was 9/11/01.made my way south was a quarter mile from towers when the first one fell.after initial shock made my way north.then went into a pharmacy bought a back pack loaded it with water and protien bars.here is where my practical advice comes in .they only could take cash when the towers fell it knocked out all satellite communication as recieving station wason top of towers.always carry enough cash especially out of town .was glad i had cash that day as i struggled to get back to brooklyn

Black Blade

(01/25/2003; 10:28:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95590)

"Interesting" Weekend

Hong Kong Saturday Session

Hong Kong trades gold in a limited Saturday session. It is quite possible that there is some buyer willing to take gold off the table close $378.70 an ounce anticipating either some "event" or a surge in buying interest ahead of the Monday trading session. Given that trade will first open in Sydney and Tokyo tomorrow (our time), it could get volatile.

"Cashin In"

The "Capitalist Pig" got a couple of chances to promote gold again this morning. There was a heated discussion with Hoenig promoting gold ownership and a couple of sorry stock losers (including Dagan McDowell of course) who were in misery looking for company by trying to draw others away from gold. The other panelist (I don't remember his name) said that gold is a collectable. Of course I know a couple of people who collect stock certificates so I guess stocks are collectables too - hmmm. The "Capitalist Pig" keeps outperforming and the others just can't stomach the thought. Right at the end of the show a viewer asked what was the one gold stock to own? Hoeing held up a gold wafer and said personally he would own gold. When pressed he said if it had to be a gold stock then he said it would be Glamis. Wayne Rogers chimed in and mention about four others but said he was "more conservative" than Jonathan Hoenig and would stick with gold stocks. It was quite a lively discussion. You could almost sense the tension among the other two panelists who are promoting stocks.

- Black Blade

Rock

(01/25/2003; 10:29:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95591)

Robot Guy

In yesterdays post you said, "This possible war may have a profound effect on the POG, and POO, but for what it's worth, I'd rather gold be valued for reasons other than thoughts of WMD."

I'm in 100% agreement with that statement and for the most part us veterans of gold have possessed the metal long before WMD became a subject of concern. During the Y2K scare WMD wasn't even a topic yet, for me the concept now is as it was at Y2K, protection insurance. And now we know that the fundamentals are great for gold with a failing dollar, ect.

Most of us are going long gold, we are looking at the big picture because we know that gold is insurance in times of distress and uncertainty and especially in times such as now because the 'perfect storm' is coming to a nation near you.

We know the economy was tanking long before war and WMD arrived on the front burner but now that it has arrived some are running to gold out of fear. It's like when I became a Christian, whether it was out of fear of going to hell or love of the Savior (probably both) I was just glad to be on the winning side of the equation.

It will be the same for gold, some will buy out of fear and others will buy out of prudence yet both will benefit if they got the goods when the crap hits the fan.

Cheers,

Rock

CoBra(too)

(01/25/2003; 10:35:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95592)

... And the Winners are ...

The Captain of the Privateer, Bill Buckler takes the "Prize":
*For someone who understands Gold, and therefore understands the mechanics of the modern financial system, there is no substitute for Gold as a vehicle for capital preservation. But few people have such an understanding, and even many who do want to get more for their "money" than a mere investment in physical Gold can give them. They would rather buy physical Silver and/or Gold stocks. Both Silver and Gold stocks are underperforming Gold. That is not supposed to happen, but it is.

The fact that physical Gold is doing so well is a very telling measure of the seriousness of the present US financial situation. But take that comparison further. The fact is that the performance of Gold ever since its last bull market topped out in February 1996 has been a very telling measure of the seriousness of the US financial situation. Don't forget, Gold fell below $US 300 in November 1997 as the Asian financial crisis was reaching the first of its several climaxes. It was held below $US 300 until early 2002, when the final bubble of all the bubbles of the late 1990s, the US Dollar bubble, finally burst.*

Nothing much to add, except special thanks to SECTOR for keeping us abreast of the CB's schemes. His number crunching and forensic work on the statements of the BIS and other CB's have been - in my view - one of the most important factors to liberate gold from the shackles of the cartell. Kudos to you, Sir.

Reg Howe, Bill Murphy, Chris Powell, James Turk and many others like our own host MK deserve our appreciation in their relentless fight towards liberating GOLD ... cb2

balzac

(01/25/2003; 10:53:02 MDT - Msg ID: 95593)

LE SIN- RE: A COOPERATIVE PHILOSOPHY OF DISCUSSION

WELL SAID BROTHER.

Boilermaker

(01/25/2003; 11:03:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95594)

a nation of one msg#: 95579

http://energycrisis.org/de/lecture.htmlNation of One,
Thanks for the link above. This is one of the obscure but critical nuggets of information that are now accessible to all who care to seek and find. The message is clear, tommorrow will be very different. This is not a linear world.
I'm still placing bets on local drillers but only as long as the prices hold or go higher.

Cheers,
Boilermaker

Gandalf the White

(01/25/2003; 11:37:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95597)

Sir Christian

Please provide some links for the quotes that you state.
I also think that you may have overemphasised the Bush connection with ABX. Please give us some basis for such.
I am giving you some "rope" !
Tks
<;-)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/25/2003; 12:41:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95599)

Ally yourself with a gold broker that is knowledgeable and also cares...

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

newsletter

In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals' founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:

ABCs book Take note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

Dollar Bill

(01/25/2003; 12:48:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95600)

not a Bush quote I bet.

Christian, I dont know the source of your quote from below, but It is likely false.

Bush 41 said, "In the near future, nations as we know will be obsolete; all countries will recognize a single global authority. The plan will result in the founding of Novus Ordo Seclorum

Gandalf the White

(01/25/2003; 12:57:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95601)

Sir Christian

Christian (1/25/03; 12:30:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 95598)
@ Gandalf the White
The O'Neil quotes I got from the U.S.Treasury. They e=mailed it to me. I should have said that present Bush connections to Barrick Gold goes through his father. He is a board member.
===
I do believe that Mr. Bush Sr. is a CONSULTANT along with the former Canadian PM, and is NOT a Member of the Board of Directors of the Company!
My point is --- IF you are in error about this FACT, doubt is cast upon all other items below that statement.
Please check you facts.
Thanks
<;-)

sector

(01/25/2003; 13:02:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95602)

Thanks "Mr.G"

A Tiny Bit More on the Gold LoansOnce the gold is swapped or loaned from a central bank, the gold cannot be loaned and sold a second time by that bank into the world gold markets in order to suppress its price.

This is the takeaway from the reality of 16,000 tonnes of central bank forwards, swaps and loans [There's no double counting in that number]. THAT much of the central bank's gold has been used up in the effort to suppress gold's price. As I said in my first post on this subject -- "It's gone". From a practical standpoint the sold gold is portioned out into the general pool available for short contracts, thus it is dispersed among may claimants.

The key is that 16,000 tonnes out of 33,000 tonnes central bank gold cannot magically appear to smash a rally...unless the price has risen to a level high enough to lure the gold hoarders.

As for the Riddler, his habit is to trash posts [Caven man] without associated substance...the sure sign of a dumbed-down pseudo-argument.

Mr Gresham

(01/25/2003; 13:09:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95603)

Saturday Afternoon Detective Club

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htmThe 378 ask is showing up reported by Kantonalbank, which is probably one of several by that name in Switzerland. I'm going to their websites now to see if any of them shows this in realtime.

Sir Christian: Reading you is like riding a favorite bicycle, and I have to remember to keep moving forward, enjoying the wind in my face and the views flying by me (which look very interesting for closer examination on a later walk), but I'm not going to slow down too much or watch the pavement passing under my wheels, or I shall have a bump on my head to show for it.

(Keep it up, bro -- take suggestions well -- each of us makes our unique contribution here, and part of being here long enough is to know each other's style, and do what we want to do with each generous gift granted by the other posters.)

Ag Mountain

(01/25/2003; 13:25:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95604)

sector

I think there's a double standard going on. I think Andril put up a valid defense against the only thing close to an attack I've seen which came from Cavan Man and you guys are ignoring that one for some reason. Getting back to the original issue, if you don't like Andril how about giving your answer to Rpowell who commented on the same thing? When you're wrong you'd better go back to the books instead of mocking people who tell you when they see you've overreached your limitations. That's fair enough if you ask me.

Daniel Druff

(01/25/2003; 13:34:32 MDT - Msg ID: 95605)

Japan Interest Rates Fall Below Zero

THIS IS LONDON...From the Evening Standard
"BANK-TO-BANK interest rates in Japan went below zero for the first time today. The Bank of Japan flooded money markets with cash to try to stimulate the ailing economy. Overnight call rates went to minus 0.01% as the Government told the Bank to take action to stem the deflation which is dogging growth."

We are sure to see more of this story from fellow hard-money advocates as it develops.

How long will it take for the Japanese to finally realize that their long held and admirable penchant for savings is a Fools Play...unless of course, it's gold which is being saved. They gave Au a pretty good goose early last year...why not again?...soon?...regardless of what the Yen is doing at the moment.

Sooner or later they will come to the party. In the meantime, most of their citizens will wait until the inevitable velocity escalation of their fiat is well under way. They can print all the fiat in the world but until someone with just a smidgen of common sense turns it into a tangible asset the desired demand pressure will only lay dormant. No doubt about it, for the long term, gold is going WAYYYYYYY up in price...but who in their right mind would want to cash it in for fiat?

Thank you

Boilermaker

(01/25/2003; 13:50:56 MDT - Msg ID: 95608)

MK pull the string

Michael, Please flush the mal content politicists.

Thanks,
Boilermaker

Mr Gresham

(01/25/2003; 14:09:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95609)

ATC, Daniel

Back from my little tour of Switzerland's banks -- "gold" only came up in connection with "Gold Visa" cards, etc. Nice tour anyway.

ATC: The Great Game is always played behind those closed doors, but now the price action might be saying that the conflict is out in the open. "Starvation" strategy or no, all it takes is the Euros _deciding_ that the US is making such a move, and they will cut off any previous lingering support for the Dollar.

Hey, hey, hey -- FOA -- are you on the way?

Daniel D -- thanks for the "world turned upside down" news of the first NEGATIVE interest rate. (Just try getting one of those on your home mortgage! Oh well.) Curiouser and curiouser, things are gettin'.

I could think of all kinds of snappy things to say about personalities, but, as in marriage (no expert there, myself) you have to pass each other in the bathroom and kitchen in the morning, so... it just doesn't pay to indulge, and I always hate myself after. (Don't you?)

You would think that a bunch of smart guys like the Goldhearts here wouldn't waste minute One on such drivel, but I suppose we're releasing a lot of pent-up frustration (20 years worth, for some earlier arrivals) and it'll blow over, like everything else.

I would think that, as this shining spot fills up with lots and lots of Gold News in months ahead, the first housecleaning would be of such indulgences that diminish the tone for the hundreds of other readers.

(After all, it's how we lost Oro and FOA. Well, not quite -- those two scrappy, brilliant, but thin-skinned workhorses. Titans clash. I think we might have been happy to indulge THEIR slapfights if they'd just gone on posting. Oh well...) (Any detectives out there up for tracking those two? Has the trail grown cold?)

Beach

(01/25/2003; 14:28:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95610)

(No Subject)

test

Beach

(01/25/2003; 14:37:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95611)

****$398.80****

The falling u.s. dollar plus the flood of new investors into Gold will result IMO a record-breaking(breathtaking) POG.and we must not forget Silver. BTW..What rhymes with Silver...hmmmmm :)

Around The Corner

(01/25/2003; 15:23:14 MDT - Msg ID: 95613)

RE: Mr Gresham

Thank you for the thoughtful response. The point I attempted to make and failed miserably at was that the EU is not in control of their own destiny because they are at the mercy of an unbroken flow of Saudi oil. Without that oil, the Euro would be just another wannabe reserve currency.

When the US and Britain began to build up forces in the Persian Gulf, they effectively took control of the destiny of the Euro.

Answer me this, if you please:

Which countries would want to hold Euros as their main reserve currency once it becomes obvious that the EU lacks the muscle to maintain an unbroken supply of energy to fuel the EU economy?

I venture to say that the US and Britain are in the process of securing oil enough for themselves which will soon result in a rebound of the dollar and a falling off the cliff of the Euro. Gold will follow the Euro yet again.

Of course I could be 100% incorrect but this is how I see it playing out in the near future.

ATC

Boilermaker

(01/25/2003; 15:24:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95614)

Barrick vs Gold Corp

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=gg&k=c1&t=5d&s=abx&a=v&p=s&l=on&z=m&q=lCan anyone offer an explanation for the relative performance of these two stocks last week? Considering that gold rose about 3%, Barrick, king of the hedgers was up 7% and Gold Corp, with gold in the ground, lots on the surface and no hedges was down 1% . Are investors in gold stocks really that stupid? The HUI substantially lagged the XAU all week. Someone help me here.
Thanks,
Boilermaker

Ulysses

(01/25/2003; 15:28:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95615)

White Hills

The Bin Ladens sold their interest in the Carlyle Group the day after 911. Was that just a coincidence? Re George Bush- one has to deserve respect in order to be respected.

Gandalf the White

(01/25/2003; 15:34:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95616)

The POG did not JUMP on Saturday in HK to the $378 level !!

http://www.bochk.com/en/details/4dc.htmPlease see the OFFICAL BoC webpage !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/25/2003; 15:46:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95617)

Hail Sir Boilermaker ---

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ABX&d=c&k=c1&c=gg,nem,au,asa&a=v&p=s&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=lWith a slightly longer view and some other comparisons --
IT COULD be called "profit taking" by the richly rewarded GG FORMER Stock holders ! They may be sorry if they moved their rewards to buy ABX !!
<;-)

Mr Gresham

(01/25/2003; 16:02:04 MDT - Msg ID: 95618)

Warfare

ATC: Thanks! Fits in with my thoughts just now on the way back from other sites. Apparently there was a cyber-attack overnight, lasting several hours. Many banking and other thingies are still out of action.

I sometimes wonder if I am being too vigilant (paranoid? curious?) in my scouring of these sites for the "next move" "around the corner". If I were a big Soros-type, it might be worth it, financially, but I'm merely a "small dog" who doesn't want to get trampled (any more than I already have?)

During the past century, civilians have gotten "conscripted" into total warfare, standing next to uniformed soldiers clearing rubble from their bombed-out city streets. And now, warfare is economic (and cyber- ?). We are all on the frontlines, and our lifeblood (or money) will flow, in battles we do not even know are taking place. It's not too far-fetched to call our Forum here a Castle, where refuge may be had from passing brigands, and "soldiers" retreating, in a plundering mood.

That's why I like those who bring us views from "around the corner", and I don't lump that in with political bickering at all.

I guess a response from many at this forum might be that, while the US holds the military card, held high for all to see, the other nations (and alliances?) have had to fashion what counter-measures they could. And using the giant's "feet of clay" (Debt) to hold as hostage in the event such an oil move was made.

Dumping US Treasuries and any Dollar reserves would be about the strongest economic retaliation in their arsenal. I always wondered why they held them so long, when the dollar was poised to fall. Perhaps the answer is that they were most valuable held as a threat to sell, pretty much aimed to be used once only.

Of course, this uncorks everything, as the US closes some other redemption window, not having a gold window to close again.

So I'm not sure this would hurt the Euro, benefit the Dollar, or drop POG back down. In fact, it makes the best time of all to be holding a non-currency as insurance, as you've said before this.

Rock

(01/25/2003; 16:17:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95619)

The Blade The Blade

Hello Sir, I also saw Cashin-in this morning with little Jonathon promoting "physical" and saying good things. Its about time gold gets the press that was long over due.

The DRUDGE REPORT has a front page of Serena Williams sitting on the American flag. The caption says, "Don't sit on the flag Serena." What most people don't know is that Serena Williams is a Jehovah Witness and JW's denounce the flag and all forms of patriotism. I read it on her website. So it doesn't surprise me that she's sitting on Ole Glory.

Leigh

(01/25/2003; 16:54:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95620)

Computer Virus

Guys, you know where the computer virus started? Hong Kong, home of the erroneous quote!

From Reuters Financial News:

"As a result, voice traffic over the Internet, often used by financial institutions to connect far-flung trading floors, was effectively shut down. 'We believe that the worm originated in Hong Kong, that it launched itself in Hong Kong,' Ohisson said.

Paper Avalanche

(01/25/2003; 17:34:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95622)

@ ATC

Greetings ATC:

I would agree with your assertion that if the US secures mid-east oil and turns off the spiggot to EU, then in fact the Euro would suffer at the hands of a resurging dollar. Bear in mind that the Euro architects have been fashioning thier game plan since 1971 when the US walked away from the Bretton Woods Agreement. I doubt that if we should secure and control the flow of mid-east oil that the EU will slap their foreheads wondering why they didn't anticpate such a move on the part of the dollar faction. If I were the EU architects during the concept phase of this plan a few years back, I would recognize that I needed a military component to my political and economic plans. I would seek a global partner who could see beyond the empty promises of empirical seniorage that unfairly benefited a small portion of the world's population. I would seek a global partner who had a history of gold affinity and whose populus could be harnessed to be an overwhelming resurgent force in world gold demand. I would seek an emerging indutrial powerhouse who would not stand for a monopoly of access to the world oil supply just as their needs for precious petroleum grows each day. I would chose CHINA.

Again, I understand and respect your analysis wrt the dollar/euro/ME relationship. However, I would submit that your analysis fails to address the CHINA issue in the whole global euro/dollar/gold dynamic. I welcome your thoughts.

PA

Mr Gresham

(01/25/2003; 17:38:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95623)

Doug Noland

http://prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.aspHalfway through Doug, and, yes, he is having fun this week. I'm coming back after a long break, but I think it was during this reading I had a flash of us turning into something like a "Repo Nation" (and I don't mean the kind the financial moguls trade among themselves) where everyone is eager to get paid/collect on anything coming their way, as soon as possible. Those counting on regular checks getting stiffed. Sell everything whose cash value will be plummeting, and convert all to liquid, with PMs soon overtaking paper currency as the safest liquid holding.

Flight to quality, at the inner circles of "moneyness", from the outer rings of "flaky" moneys.

Maybe at first, thinking "just until this blows over", but with the precarious pyramids of Structured Finance tottering, it may turn into a long windstorm. New lifestyles will be forged out of this meltdown.

Mr Gresham

(01/25/2003; 17:42:05 MDT - Msg ID: 95625)

Polaroid, again

http://www.cfo.com/article/1,5309,8524,00.htmlAnd then there's this great in-depth CFO article on the use of bankruptcy to enrich the insiders. We're going to see A LOT of this coming down. "How business is done in a Kleptocracy" -- did they learn this from the Russian insiders?

Pizz -- this one's right up your alley!

CoBra(too)

(01/25/2003; 17:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 95626)

... None - two - Cents

A Chapman quote, even if I wouldn't subscribe to his market letter ...

*As the dollar tanks, the competitive devaluations we predicted are taking place and US manufacturers are again getting hurt as a result. Business is putting pressure on globalization king George Bush to put pressure on Taiwan, China, Japan and South Korea to stop manipulation of foreign exchange rates that are giving them an unfair trade advantage. Isn't this what free trade is all about, screwing your competitor? The dollar is off only 10% versus the yen this year whereas it's off 20% versus the euro. The Ministry of Finance has bought over $75 billion on currency markets over the last two years. The Chinese Yuan is essentially fixed against the dollar. This is an excellent example of rigged markets and why globalization doesn't work.*

Competitive devaluations will essentially be the only MDD's (mass Destruction Devices - hey, why shouldn't I mint new abbreviations?) the not yet nuked globalized fraternity of business as usual will us(e)urp to realize any fighting chance to survive.

Globalization, and forget Davos (-Da wo's so teuer ist ... except for great slopes) has proved to be detrimental to the globe's economical health. The progenitors, I guess the US, are also feeling the negative backlash and are therefor backing off.

... Though, historically it was said that GM's future is closely related to the future of the US. I would rather take another allegory - GE. A company producing everything, from fridges to nuclear power plants - a real giant in R&D and productivity.

If GE today is in any way the ideal of new corporate America - a company now being almost totally in the (financial) service industry - it's probably no wonder that real productivity (vs the Greenspan hedonic productivity spasm's , sorry gains - he figured) went elsewhere - far too far to the FAR EAST.

I'm not sure, though I think reality is following productivity - and that may be why Gold is going East, going North is a no-brainer anyway!
Get your share of eastern productivity ... get your share of GOLD - as no-one is going to protect your paper wealth - as an asset or obligation from here on ... cb2 on a rant, too ... who?

R Powell

(01/25/2003; 18:09:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95627)

Boilermaker // 24 carat

Both of you just asked about precious metals stocks of which I own not a one. However, I've not missed much of what has been said at the gold-eagle site over the past few years. I see the USAGOLD banner on the top of each new time period page of their forum so I guess it is okay to mention them. There are many there who are intensely involved (invested) in PM stocks and there is, daily, excellent analysis of both the gold/silver markets and mining stocks. Also, many of those analysts featured in editorials there and elsewhere about gold also write more detailed reports for their subscribers. I receive some of these but will not, of course, mention any names.
Let me add a word of warning in that the precious metals sector of the financial world has its fair share of not-so-ethical schemes.

Boilermaker: When considering specific mining stocks and why a hedged miner might gain more than an unhedged one, have you considered that you might have as much if not more of the information necessary to pick among the choices than does the fund manager who knows the names and ticker symbols of all the blue chips and dot gones but doesn't know diddley about mining companies. Some of the big name analysts would be hard pressed to even name a half-dozen mining companies. Also, some funds are restricted from investing (buying) in companies below a certain market cap. Does the fund really want some young MBA graduate buying penny stocks or financially pressed companies which many a good mining company has become. Also remember that precious metals producers have been out of favor for a long time and off the radar of even the big brokerage houses. The resident expert may be the night watchman. Personally, I'd buy physical before I'd let someone else decide what mining companies to buy with my money but, if stocks are your passion, do the research yourself and then go for it!
Happy hunting!
Rich

Galerider

(01/25/2003; 18:29:41 MDT - Msg ID: 95628)

378.00 PRICE IN HK

Gandalf,
Maybe as in some instances to explain the rise in the stock markets after one or two sessions....someone pushed the wrong key in HK. Maybe Spot or Spike pushed the keys while prancing around. Did you let them out after hours?

R Powell

(01/25/2003; 18:49:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95629)

Boilermaker // Black Blade

In regards to Barrick and GoldCorp: I guess it's okay to mention these names as M.K. refered to GoldCorp last week.

It was GoldCorp's McEwen that decided to test the liquidity of the gold market recently by ordering 40,000 ounces. Michael mentioned this a few days ago and a link was provided to a news release in which McEwen reported that delivery took longer and the price was higher than expected. GoldCorp is reported as not only unhedged but as with unsold gold in storage (not deep storage, aboveground storage).
Barrick is the hedged company goldbugs love to hate.
Why did Barrick gain and GoldCorp not? Don't ask me, ask the so-called expert on gold stocks on the peoples' stock picking television channel who last week recommended buying Barrick and selling GoldCorp!! Why? Something was said about a well capitalised (hedged?) company versus a company that was ahead of itself and due a pullback.

B.B. thanks for the heads-up on that exchange that's open on Saturdays. Now that bid-ask spread may be more than a glitch. It may not last when the bigger markets open but it may be an omen of larger spreads to come. It may also be an omen of days ahead with market orders only (no limit orders) in Comex gold and an omen of increased margin requirements. Now, what happens when margins are increased on short positions already taking on water?
It is sometimes very hard and dangerous to buy or sell in a paniced market. Physical too! Has everyone loaded up enough?
Rich

Cometose

(01/25/2003; 19:32:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95630)

@Boilermaker re: Barrick and Goldcorp//// miner's performance

I've been noticing this for weeks... It looks like a blatant attempt by our couterparties to bamboozle the markets into believing that this GOLD rise is a phenomenon associated with the war premium only.....and that after the US gets into it that the inflated price of the commodity physical will deflate... It may also on the other hand be a concerted effort to keep the prices of the miner's down so the weak hands will let go of their shares in a bid by the strong hands to get those shares...

The cat is not yet out of the bag about the coming currency crisis and especially the dollar decline...I have to agree with paper avalanche regarding the players who are peices in this chess game who have not shown their presence or their intentions .... the U S in its foreign policy has sown much discord and bad will globally ....I'm sure there are many parallels that are want to be drawn between then ( Gulf War) and now..( Gulf War II) In Gulf War I ...Iraq invaded Kuwait(a sovereign nation) to obtain their oil fields.(very imperialistic)...( I don't remember a any other geopolitical currents in the backgroung of that incident......The US came to the rescue , ran the IRAQIS off .... and the UN sanctioned Iraq and the U S troops left.... The Stock Market swooned some before and then advanced after the war began to take its course. Gold went up in advance of the war and Upon the begin of fighting ....receeded and the Dollar was strong.... on a global level..in international use and perception.

The pundits on T V are going to try to sell this event as a repeat of GULF War I.....Jim Sinclair has commented on the Scenario he believes will unfold....or the planning of the International Community to flood the markets with liquidity to prop up markets (propel a stock buying binge on a stronger dollar).

It just may be that there are going to be several dollar DEFECTORS weighing in in the wake of Russia's announcement yesterday relative to dumping dollar denominated asset...This war is losing it's allure internationally by the day ..... the Turks have yet to Weigh in....militarily ...nor have the Chinese.....but the Chinese are buying Gold and we may assume planning to sell Treasuries....I have often thought that GEorge Soros was working in the GOV"T in 98 Currency crisis that he may have helped to start.....in the far east....Is it now payback time.....for GEORGE et al....a la dollar flight...

In GULF War II.. after much ado about Bin Laden having assumed the identity of Sadam Hussein......THe US will justifiably ( will the world press report favorably on this) invade IRAQ (a sovereign nation) and depose Sadaam Hussein and take the oil.( a very imperialistic act)......In this scenario the Iraqis will be defending their native soil..... It will go well (quickly ) or not .
THere may ralatively little loss of live or much loss of life. There will be escatalation of tensions or and easing of tensions.....Others may weigh in in this fight or others may not......THis will escatate into World War III or it will not...Allies may join us after the initial conflict begins. or they won't ....THe whole effort and Theatre will be percieved in legitimacy internationally or it will not ( because this is almost a replay of what Sadaam did to the Kuwaitis and if the US doesn't have U N backing before a unilatteral invasion, would it not be possible that the entire international community turns on the U S via the UN and impose similar sanctions on THe US . WHat a suprise that would be...

Little of the above contemplation has anything to do with the price of GOLD...some have said there is 30$ war premium built into the price of an ounce of gold..Gold is going up because the dollar is going down ...because their is a consensus internationally that dollar denominated assets are a negative and the future prospects of improvement in the US economy are nill..
Because so much of the system is built on promises of air and blue sky ,,,the crisis of confidence is spreading ...
Greenspan policy / Fed policy has changed : toward inflating the currency to avoid a deflation ...flood the system with more dollars and credit....Nobody wants to borrow ....no help for the economy here...IN the midst of the dramatic statements about the printing press FED option, Greenspan is a beginning to make references to GOLD>.. Jim Sinclair stated that he expects to see the Bankers try to rally the markets from the inception of our invasion...

Are the BIllion Chinese going to stop buying GOLD .....not likely .....Are the Billions of Islamic people in the New GOLD currency going to put upward pressure on the demand for GOLD and SILVER......Most definitely !!!! ARe the banks in Trouble on their GOLD SHORTS....Is there some question about dwindling GOLD RESERVES as a result of Oddyssey BANKING Policy....?? Yes...
IS there fear and uncertainty out there......If gold is going up ....there is.....why because in this time it is growing in its true perception as real money .....while the underlying problems surfacing related to fiat have grown with it the perception that it's value may now be more imagined than real...

I believe Gold is going up because there is demand supply imbalance and a dramatic shift in international policy re: how business is going to be done in the future and who is going to participate...HE WHO HAS THE GOLD AND OIL MAKES THE RULES... As Gold rises ,,,,Gold company issues will also rise...if not now , later

THe percepion that capturing the oil of the middle east is going to be some kind of gift for Western industrialized nations and impetus for economic growth in the context of cheap energy for all is ill founded imho...This is just the beginning of the OIL WARS....

Weakening global economies are the fertile ground wars develop in...All this drama does make for interesting veiwing...our vigilance is required that we be not distracted as dogs chasing down erroneous scents.

TownCrier

(01/25/2003; 20:25:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95632)

Cometose, here is some more support from this day in the archives.

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/2320031/default.htmlI don't know if our weekend readers differ materially from our weekday readers, but here are two pieces in particular I posted on Thursday that attempted to get to the heart of this "war premium" issue in the media. Some people I've talked to since have found it very helpful for their perspective, and you will find it nicely reinforces your view.

R.
###### First "war premium" article and comments#########

TownCrier (1/23/03; 00:21:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 95279)
HEADLINE: Gold gallops to six-year high as war talk swirls
SYDNEY, Thrusday Jan 23 (Reuters) - Gold hit $364.00/$365.00 an ounce in Hong Kong as Asian centres reported frantic trading. It was bullion's highest price since January 1997.

Gold climbed 25 percent in 2002 to make it one of the year's star performing assets. Gold is up five percent so far this year.

"Gold is in the spotlight as a hedge against inflation and as an asset that can be trusted in times of war," Eagle Mining Research analyst, Keith Goode, said.
-------------
Randy's note: Many media reports would have you believe that gold's rise is due purely to a war premium on the safe haven. However, given all that has been discussed here regarding the large view of international currency dymamics, I think it is safe for me to say that that view is narrow to the point of disservice to their readers.

Call Centennial today to protect your net wealth.
R.

###### Follow up "war premium" comments plus supporting article#########

TownCrier (1/23/03; 04:54:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 95296)
Euro action can be seen as subparallel to gold action
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=2095325
Although focusing on the euro, this article supports my comments offered in the first post of today wherein I indicated that it was a narrow view to say that the rising price of gold was based primarily upon a war premium. There is a larger currency dynamic at work, and this article gives more than a hint of that...

Please read these following excerpts with a will toward fullest possible comprehension as it applies to gold, too.
R.

Euro Rally Builds Steam, Dollar Hit
Thu January 23, 2003
LONDON (Reuters) - The euro rallied to its highest level in three years against the dollar, knocking the greenback lower on other fronts as the single currency's rally gained strength, even in absence of fresh geopolitical impetus.

...dealers said the euro's ability to break higher through tough resistance at $1.0750 on Thursday showed its advance was building its own momentum, even without new headlines on Iraq to undermine the dollar.

"It's definitely not news-driven and the interesting thing is also that we've not heard the word "Iraq" mentioned all morning," said Nick Parsons, currency strategist at Commerzbank.

"It's more of a euro move than a dollar move, but those who had tried to go long of dollars this morning just on the back of the stronger S&P (futures index) and the belief that the momentum was fading are getting stopped out now."

Also knocking the dollar lower was news Russia's central bank would raise the level of its non-dollar reserves because of low returns on the U.S. currency, just the latest in a lengthening line of investors -- public or private -- to shun the greenback.

"There are hints of diversification, of greater favor toward the euro out of Asia. One is by Japanese deposit investors," said Aziz McMahon, currency strategist at ABN Amro.

...European Central Bank council member Ernst Welteke was quoted this week as saying the dollar was not too weak and needed no support.
----(see url for full article)-------

1340cc

(01/25/2003; 20:32:44 MDT - Msg ID: 95633)

Boilermaker i.e. Barrack vs. GC

All I can do is say K.I.S.S.

Apparently!

Cytek

(01/25/2003; 21:47:05 MDT - Msg ID: 95635)

Rukeyser has show guest say a buy on Gold

Gold Price Expected to Rise by `Louis Rukeyser' Show Guest
By Josh Fineman

New York, Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and shares of gold companies are worth buying because of where short-term interest rates stand, a guest on ``Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street'' said.

``Whenever the Federal Reserve has driven short-term rates below the inflation rate, gold tends to do well and gold stocks can do well,'' Doug Cliggott, chief executive officer of hedge- fund group Brummer & Partners, said on the CNBC program. He expects the price of gold could be ``dramatically higher, at least modestly higher'' in the next 12 months.

Cliggott, who expects that the U.S. stock market will fall for a fourth year in a row, also said European bonds are attractive because European growth is slowing.

The ``European Central Bank didn't ease a lot when the Federal Reserve was easing,'' Cliggott said. ``I think they will ease a surprising amount this year and the whole yield structure will come down in Europe.''

Cytek - looks like the fever is about to hit joe public. I also saw on Fox news today an analyst said to buy Gold mining stocks, but not Gold. Go figure, the Physical stuff is so much nicer to hold.

DOWNUNDER

(01/25/2003; 21:47:09 MDT - Msg ID: 95636)

AUSTRALIAN MARKETS CLOSED TOMORROW - - -

Just a quick note to alert everyone that Australian Markets will be closed on Monday 27th for "Australia Day" which is a national holiday. Lets hope that Japan carries the day with a solid increase in the POG.

seeker

(01/25/2003; 22:20:55 MDT - Msg ID: 95637)

Martin Armstrong's prediction for November 2002

http://www.armstrongdefensefund.org/martypei/buscycle.htmMaybe Armstrong had it right all along. Ever since November 2002, gold has taken off, just as his "model" predicted it would. Did'nt I read some where that the FBI came to his house asking where he got his economic model from? I always did find it strange that he has been held in jail for 36 months now for what? contempt of court?! Could it be that he actually new something that was'nt supposed to be known? hmmmm..

21mabry

(01/25/2003; 23:13:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95639)

premiums

i have been trying to learn the pm markets on my own.sites like these help alot.my family and friends show no interest,they think evening news is all the truth you need.but i still love them.if someone could give me lowest and highest premiums to pay for following items i would be gratefull. 1oz eagles,kugerands,maple leafs.1oz silver eagles rolls of 20 1oz silver rounds and junk bags.100 oz bars of silver.also to the host of our website buys as well as sells.a quick outline of procedure would be grate if i need to call for info i understand.read gold wars by ferdinand lips was very informative i would recomend it

mikal

(01/25/2003; 23:18:43 MDT - Msg ID: 95640)

Miscellany

Re: War on electronics
An attack on electronics or computer networks is not a way to lower the price of physical gold that is traded worldwide, in far greater amounts than in the US. Much higher prices would occur immediately.
As for the probability of a computer attack succeeding, I know that multiple layers, redundancies and security walls have been implemented, for starters. Also, the PTB in the West AND East, including radical Islamist states, have a long-time vested interest in maintaining an adequate flow of financial transactions, information and vital commodities. Disruptions will be minimized by mutual consent to ensure that basic controls(media, governance, militaries, energy, basic infrastructure) are not jeapordized, losses are minimized, and results maximized.
Re: War, gold, stock market and currency decisions�
Most decisions are planned well in advance and implemented by supranational elitists, beyond national allegiances, through major world governments (including G-12) in London, Basil, Rome, Hong Kong, Washington and Tokyo, etc. Including, but not limited to John Coleman's named "Committee of 300" wealthy, secretive descendents and associates of entrenched banker families. And using the IMF, World Bank, World Court and the BIS, ruling over the planning sessions of the CFR (Council on Foreign Relations), the Bilderburg Group, the Trilateral Commision, Skull and Bones Society, Masons, media monopolies, spy agencies, local judiciaries, military/industrial company chairmanships and boards of directors, nonprofit trusts,
state-sponsored universities, Hollywood and more.

mikal

(01/25/2003; 23:45:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95641)

Central bankers and gold

It really looks as if central bankers are in the midst of a complete reversal on dollar policy. Clearly the competitive devaluations will further rebalance the gold market while a Chinese move to let the Yuan float, rather than be pegged to the dollar, would have the Asian countries all rushing to the competitive devaluation panic levers and dials. CB'sters cannot let themselves get caught in the spokes or gears of any shifting or moving market. Instead they anticipate and even capitalize on the natural market forces and cyclic trends (as well as unnatural manipulative pressure), like a hang-glider catching, but not resisting, the laws of aerodynamic wind. Any short-term impacts on bonds and gold are dwarfed by an unfolding vista.
Re: "War premium" It is difficult to say that one even exists, given that the physical market should have already priced in the obvious war and it's aftermath. Rather, the market demonstrates a sustainable buildup of premium, on the future conflicts and consequent aftermaths- economic, political and social instability and change, characterized by historic human, environmental and energy-related challenges and crises.

DOWNUNDER

(01/25/2003; 23:48:18 MDT - Msg ID: 95642)

@ AROUND THE CORNER

I'm glad to see your recent post was pulled -- I was as mad as hell when I read it as it was waving a very red flag to me--& I nearly responded in kind. Fair warning was given.It should be obvious that this forum is international in makeup & that your remarks were likely to be offensive to many. Good riddance. Go Gold.

Gandalf the White

(01/26/2003; 00:47:56 MDT - Msg ID: 95643)

Sir 21mabry !!! An ANSWER to your Question !!

21mabry (1/25/03; 23:13:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 95639)
premiums
===
By my experience, Premiums change almost daily on one or more of your items of interest, as demand and prices do !
May I suggest that you call USAGOLD by telephone Monday and ask what the LOWEST Premiums are on these items.
THEY have the answers !
<;-)

Basil

(01/26/2003; 01:04:02 MDT - Msg ID: 95645)

****386.2****

Gold is slowly rising as the world awakes to the truth---dollars accumulated are created out of nothing.The Iraq issue has only short term influence.Twenty years of deception and manipulation are unraveling!

The Invisible Hand

(01/26/2003; 01:14:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95646)

Powell to address Davos summit today

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/2695313.stmSNIP:
US Secretary of State Colin Powell is expected to face tough questioning about America's plans to attack Iraq when he makes a key speech to business leaders at the World Economic Forum on Sunday.
�
And business chiefs at Davos are also concerned that a war with Iraq will further threaten the international economy, pushing oil prices higher and increasing inflation.
==
Did I also read "increasing inflation"?
That's today Davos, tomorrow Blix report, and State of the Union on Tuesday.
Goldgate, choose your date!
Will somebody in the audience, please stand up and ask the question!

ElGordo

(01/26/2003; 02:59:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95647)

Saudi police in gun fight with al-Qaeda

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2694651.stmThe shooting happened a day after Saudi Arabia extradited a self-confessed Kuwaiti supporter of the al-Qaeda network, who admitted ambushing two Americans near the main US army base in Kuwait.

Sa'd al-Faqih, head of the London-based opposition Movement for Islamic Reform in Arabia (Mira), said the Saudi police raid on Friday targeted suspected al-Qaeda members.

In an interview with Qatari-based al-Jazeera television, he claimed that Saudi police morale had "collapsed" since "pro-jihad men" had received a fatwa, or religious decree, "ordering them not to surrender or be taken prisoner".
____________
If Saudi Arabia was destabilized, can you imagine what that would do to the price of oil and gold?

(01/26/2003; 03:04:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95648)

Excerpt from Jom Sinclair's latest

Derivative Dealers in Trouble

Where are the derivative dealers that are supposed to be killed by gold above $354? Well, they are where they are supposed to be, getting killed. Do you not know how to recognize a short squeeze in the making? Can't you see the fight at the close to keep the settlement price down so as to ease the margin calls on the short? I told you when the commercial interest makes a mistake, that it is one hell of a mistake. Do you think all those commercial shorts are happy tonight? Wait until next week! Do you think that when Enron knew they were in trouble, they hung a sign out saying so? No! They spoke to bull the Enron shares as they sold their own shares. So why do you expect a major gold cartel member to announce they are being crucified? Just look at what the market did when it closed over $305 and over $354. So do not swagger around saying derivatives mean nothing. So far they have meant $371 today minus $305, which is $66 for the gold price. I gave you those two prices and explained what they meant and then the arguments started. Look at the result and stop arguing. The derivative dealers are in real trouble. Next week I will tell you why I believe those derivatives are the greatest exercise in self-delusion since the tulip craze, but we will hold that for another day.

Boilermaker

(01/26/2003; 05:16:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95649)

Thanks for the comments re ABX vs GG yesterday

Gandalf, Rich, Cometose, 1340cc
It's becoming ever more clear to me that a combination of naivity, fear, stupidity, etc., exists in the investment world regarding precious metals and the currency wars. This will no doubt bring more short term surprises to what most of us here would expect.

I also think that physical gold is being driven by strong, knowledgeable hands in the East and the PM stocks are displaying the disbelief and stupidity that dominates the Western markets. The derivitives markets in PMs are sheer madness

The wisest among us have always counseled physical for true protection and that is my theme also. But I enjoy playing the paper game (stocks, no derivitives) while the music plays.
Cheers
Boilermaker

Belgian

(01/26/2003; 05:48:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95650)

Davos and other debates.....

The following reflexions, only in relation to Gold...

C. Powell's (finalising) message to Euroland was, expected and clear : Euroland, do never forget what the US/UK did, whit your dictator, Hitler !

Against the above background, Euroland's politicians, have a very simple (strategic) answer : All empires do go that one step too far !

And what does this say about Gold ?

It tells us that the "HIDDEN" fierce fight between paper-gold (the dollar) and physical Gold (the euro) is raging at deep sea levels !!!

Yes, there is the evident matter of "oil", BUT NOBODY DARES TO CONNECT IT *** PUBLICLY *** WITH THE EURO / DOLLAR STRUGGLE ! Certainly NOT in Davos or on political/financial forums.

The world's "monetary" affair is evolving very, very deep under the water. But a hell of a lot off the planet's problems are caused by THE MONETARY AFFAIR ! Very wise men/women, from whatever discipline, fail to connect those difficult dots. They all remaine confused or ignorant enough to add more and more to the general public's confusion. And it is exactly because of leaving the ignorant, general public, out of the debate or equation, that makes this monetary struggle, possible at deep-sea level.

It is FOA in Archives-"I" that the basics on Free Gold are funamentally elaborated and that we, with the present geo-political events/facts, are able to understand the many why's and how's. Gulf war I was not aborted for secundary reasons ! Is it coincidental that Gulf war I and II are both a Bush affair ?
The reason why Gulf war II wants to divert the oil-attention/relation as far as possible from the real motivation...indicates that oil + the dollar + Gold + euro, have come much closer to the real motives for war. Note that in 1990 (G.W. I) the euro was not yet on its feet and much more at doubt for the dollar-block. The dollar was very convinced, "then", that the euro (and its concept)wouldn't make it .

The euro-builders-architects, wish that the US/UK would have chosen another war-cover than the "confusing" WMD-argument. Note that H. Kissinger quitted his job on the inquiry commission on behalf of the 9/11-atrocity victims !

Enough reasons to keep our thinking more out of the presented boxes.

SciGuy

(01/26/2003; 06:07:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95651)

Test

The Knife

(01/26/2003; 06:14:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95652)

***********370.4****************

Let's see what major developments are possible:

1. US holds Iraqi oilfields and contains Baghdad city limits waiting for Saddam to come out and play.

2. Weather: No doubt the cold weather is going to be one of the worst ones. Means higher prices, less reserves, and the potential to destroy my morning orange juice.

3. Continued conversion to Euro dollars creating a more competitive market for the U.S. dollar.

4. Martha Stewart will be wearing pin stripes rather than K-Mart polyester.

Belgian

(01/26/2003; 06:17:32 MDT - Msg ID: 95653)

@ ElGordo

Any war is nothing but the end-conclusion of well oriented (M.E.) "destabilizing" efforts/intentions ! To Destabilize for "WHAT" reasons ? When peace AND prosperity have landed (crashed) and can't take off anymore, because of all the ballast, accumulated.

When attacks ocured in countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Yemen and others...no invasions/occupations were/are organized !? Strange ?

The existance/creation of *terror-psychosis* is DRAMATIC in the real sense of the word, dramatic.
Nobody is happy with any kind of dictatorship, whatever its name. But the accompagning world-wide terror that presently goes with the old dictator-phenomena is NEW. And the debates will center on this aspect as to how we are going to eradicate it. Main obstacle is the choice between hard (war) or soft (diplomatic) tools. This debate might escalate on itself with more profound disparity between the two camps.

In the mean time, other *deep-sea* currents do progress, silently. Don't be surprised about an overnight fracture between paper-gold and Physical-Gold under the present circumstances. The fundamentals have been laid for this to happen. Let the currents flow.

The Invisible Hand

(01/26/2003; 06:33:32 MDT - Msg ID: 95654)

It's official: Powell wants to help the gold shorts, the dollar and the SUVies

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/2695313.stmSNIP
Mr Powell appealed to the world to trust the United States to use its power for good, citing American involvement in Afghanistan, Kuwait and Bosnia, as examples of his country's good intentions.
"We seek nothing for ourselves other than to bring about security for those who have suffered so much," he said.
===
add
OZ (1/26/03; 03:04:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 95648)
Excerpt from Jom Sinclair's latest
Derivative Dealers in Trouble

Toolie

(01/26/2003; 06:50:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95655)

Congress, manufacturers push for lower dollar

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/01/24/rtr858345.html
Snip;

By Anna Willard

WASHINGTON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - U.S. lawmakers and lobbyists have stepped up their campaign for the U.S. to change its policy of voicing support for a strong dollar, and are using the nomination of a treasury secretary to press their views.

The Senate Finance Committee will hold its confirmation hearing for Treasury Secretary nominee John Snow on Tuesday, and he is expected to be asked about the U.S. dollar policy.

Although the dollar has slumped almost 10 percent against the euro since early December, U.S. manufacturers have kept up their oft-repeated refrain -- the currency is overvalued and strangling their already beleaguered industry.

------------------------------------------------------------

Toolie; US Manufacturers have been advocating a rate of 1$=80 Yen to stop the industry from being hollowed out. The Yen is under the same pressure form China. It's a race to the basement. Store your wealth.

Belgian

(01/26/2003; 07:03:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95656)

A very Interesting Concept >>> FOA msg-ID-13947 (1999)

Because Euroland's external debt is very low compared to the US and they posses a positive trade balance, a rising price of Gold-Reserves (in � or $) will support the �-currency with extra value.

Euroland's policy of marking Gold-Reserves to market (quarterly) and eventually establishing a "true Physical" marketplace, offers every enticement to get the dollar and euro-price of Gold, higher. (not a gimmick)

Because this process creates a "unique" - "reserve" - "benefit", NOT used in the old gold-standard, Euroland will never officially *back* the euro with Gold (!!!)
Rather, allow a new "free-market" in Physical Gold (not paper) to supplement their currency operations.

The efficiency of modern trade requires a digital currency. That need alone, will always support the use of a currency.

If Gold can trade beside paper-money, neither will drive the other out of circulation...AS LONG AS THEY EACH SEEK THEIR OWN VALUES !

Now, dear forumers, ask yourself 2 questions :
Is this concept, non-sense , or/and impossible...? And, wich currency is /will encourage this process, $ or � ?

Additional questions : Did the old gold-standard, work...?
And/or, can a remodelled standard, ever be workable...?
Do you favor the "new"-concept from "old" Euroland or do you wish a re-edition of the "old" standard by the "new" America ? TIA

Hipplebeck

(01/26/2003; 07:05:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95657)

Belgian

http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=255952&contrassID=1⊂ContrassID=0&sbSubContrassID=0you say;
It tells us that the "HIDDEN" fierce fight between paper-gold (the dollar) and physical Gold (the euro) is raging at deep sea levels !!!
---------
Are you saying there are no gold derivatives, options, calls puts, swaps etc. written in Euros?

If you want to really see one of the main reasons for this upcoming war, look at the link above.

Hipplebeck

(01/26/2003; 07:21:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95658)

(No Subject)

The reason that the Euro has less debt is because it is newer than the dollar. In time it will follow the dollar into corruption.
The gold standard did and does work until bankers corrupt it by issuing more receipts for gold than they have gold.
Is the dollar without gold backing working?
Will the Euro without gold backing do any better?
This mark to market bs means nothing. What difference that the US central bank keeps gold on their books at an old rate? Do you think that anyone in the US believes that gold in vaults is really worth only $42 just because it says that on a book somewhere? Gold has been held down as low as it is now because the common man believed the lies that gold is no longer money. They are waking up to reality as we speak.
Everyone knows that the supply and demand sets the true rate in the end. Shorting gold is a con game that has been run by bankers all over the world, not just in the US.
History will show that gold will endure as money when all the dollar and euro schemes are long buried in the ash heap with the rest of the fiat con games.
Only when men wise up to the ponzi that fiat banking is will they get back to being able to build an honest society with honest money. Will they ever get it? I sure hope so.

Dollar Bill

(01/26/2003; 07:52:05 MDT - Msg ID: 95659)

Hipplebeck

Greetings Hip,
I disagree with the source of your learning.
Which includes the black knave murphy of course.
It is not a con, and the the gold system was not perfect and was limited in a number of ways. Its time came and went
and human suffering decreased and human advancement increased.
In the old gold system, where do you fetch the money to help people in need in various parts of the world when various troubles occur?
There is no way to avoid problems in life, even Aristotle and those guys with a room of gold have troubles.
We have human nature, and that is flawed, and you know that, and without a blueprint for success from the god, we struggle to construct a system that handles the primary needs of the day, and no one has found the structure that
will handle a planetwide economy. We could easily tumble into disaster on a global scale, and it is up to all the men who briefly occupy the positions of power to work
together enough to maintain a workable system.
It cannot be a flawless system, you will win a noble prize if you come up with one. Dont forget, all men stuggle for advantage, out of desire and also fear.
The black knave murphy and many other gold writers like to paint the picture in a simple good versus evil way.
However, the good and not so good, is in ALL men, all the time, and no one can perfect themselves.
Given the human nature, it is more interesting and satisfying to try and see the actual reasons each part of the economic story plays it's part.
I raise a gold goblet of grog to you.

Shermag

(01/26/2003; 07:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 95660)

****$365.6****

The next major development in gold will be a comex default. We are already hearing rumblings preceding this epic seismic event. When this ocurs, the predominant price discovery mechanism in the gold world fails, and it is a whole new game going forward.

Mr. Bill

(01/26/2003; 08:03:41 MDT - Msg ID: 95661)

@Hipplebeck msg#: 95658 - euro timeline

"The reason that the Euro has less debt is because it is newer than the dollar."

This is just another illusion being perpetuated. Those euros are actually very old. Those euros just did not magically appear unencumbered. They are the result of the debt that the European countries had before the euro was created. All of those loans in marks, liras, and francs have been born again as euro loans. And the capital part (verses the accumulated interest part) of those loans became euros.

"In time it will follow the dollar into corruption."

It probably will not take that much time at all.

a nation of one

(01/26/2003; 08:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 95662)

Sinclair's rant

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=i&w=15&t=c&a=2@ OZ (1/26/03; 03:04:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 95648)
"Excerpt from Jom Sinclair's latest
Derivative Dealers in Trouble
[He says]
Where are the derivative dealers that are supposed to be killed by gold above $354? Well, they are where they are supposed to be, getting killed. Do you not know how to recognize a short squeeze in the making? Can't you see the fight at the close to keep the settlement price down so as to ease the margin calls on the short? I told you when the commercial interest makes a mistake, that it is one hell of a mistake. Do you think all those commercial shorts are happy tonight? Wait until next week! Do you think that when Enron knew they were in trouble, they hung a sign out saying so? No! They spoke to bull the Enron shares as they sold their own shares. So why do you expect a major gold cartel member to announce they are being crucified? Just look at what the market did when it closed over $305 and over $354. So do not swagger around saying derivatives mean nothing. So far they have meant $371 today minus $305, which is $66 for the gold price. I gave you those two prices and explained what they meant and then the arguments started. Look at the result and stop arguing. The derivative dealers are in real trouble. Next week I will tell you why I believe those derivatives are the greatest exercise in self-delusion since the tulip craze, but we will hold that for another day."

--I find this extremely difficult to believe. I think it is made up. Where is the evidence? Show us the evidence, Jim.

If Jim Sinclair's interpretation were correct, you would not see strong buyers stepping in after selling diminished. They would exploit sellers, buying when selling is strong. Have a look at the link. The opposite occurred. And this has been occurring for weeks now. The strong buyers have been waiting until selling is exhausted. Then they have bought. This is consistent with buyers trying to maximize the upward effect of their own purchases, not buyers driven by fear of loss. Therefore, until I see hard evidence to the contrary, I must believe that Jim Sinclair is wrong. And the best explanation I can come up with for the reason he keeps going on about his incorrect supposition has two parts. The main part is that he needed a sales tool, and his claim that derivative holders were in great trouble filled that need. Second, if people find out there were no troubled derivative holders, it would damage his reputation. Reader, if you yourself were very good at trading gold day-to-day, and could make significant money doing it, would you waste your time writing a newsletter? I wouldn't. Nor writing articles for a website either. I would spend all of my time trading in gold. I wouldn't be a consultant; I wouldn't give advice; I would just trade gold. Doing so would take up all of the time you could possibly give it. You would have no time left for anything else. It is the same with being a consultant. It takes up all of the time that you have. You have no time left to consistently make a lot of money trading gold. If this is not true, Jim, show us the proof. Show us how much money you yourself have made -personally for yourself- trading gold in the past year. Show us also what you started with. Show us a record of your gold sales, and your gold buys. I will do it if you will. And if you really want us to believe you, inform us as to each of your next ten trades, within five minutes of the execution of each of them. This way we will be able to correctly judge your actual ability. If you are good, you should not fear to do this. It would only strengthen your reputation.

The real reason gold is going up is in fact that the dollar is going down, and this alone accounts for gold's increase.
There is also increasing public demand and diminishing supply. No troubled derivative holders have been needed to make gold go up. It is going up because of these reasons. Other reasons are not needed.

Demand for gold is increasing because everyone with a brain knows that the United States is in very deep trouble, and that it will probably get much worse before it gets better. The Golden Age of America is over. Oil will be coming to an end, for many of us, in our lifetime. Intelligent informed people understand this. The war will not be good for our nation, ultimately, but will hasten its ruin. There can be no doubt of this. Such knowledge has been in human possession for millennia. Only those who ignore history do not know it.

MO VER MEG

(01/26/2003; 08:24:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95663)

***** 355.10******

Short term "good news" regarding the war in Iraq will bring about a modest retracement for gold.

MOVERMEG

Belgian

(01/26/2003; 08:29:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95664)

A consequence of Gulf war II :

The UK AND Turkey will not join EMU, soon (2003).
UK decided not to hold a referendum and France opposed (temporary) on Turkey's candidature.
Is this one more piece of evidence that political decisions on the surface are inspired/guided by EMU- monetary deep-sea, currents ? Thoughts.

truthbetold

(01/26/2003; 08:39:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95665)

Sinclairs hypothesis...

It appears to me, Sinclair has described a "managed" economy very much like the one FOA/Another has described.

Boilermaker

(01/26/2003; 08:56:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95666)

a nation of one

I mostly agree with your
"Demand for gold is increasing because everyone with a brain knows that the United States is in very deep trouble, and that it will probably get much worse before it gets better. The Golden Age of America is over. Oil will be coming to an end, for many of us, in our lifetime. Intelligent informed people understand this. The war will not be good for our nation, ultimately, but will hasten its ruin. There can be no doubt of this. Such knowledge has been in human possession for millennia. Only those who ignore history do not know it."

The real problem is that 99.9% of Americans, and many very smart ones, have little or no clue what's happening. As they become more aware I expect to see the acceptance of and reversion to sound money and sound fiscal policy, both in private life and in government. I expect that will happen before the nation goes to ruin as it has more than once in the past. We can solve the money, fiscal and energy problems but the people must see them before corrective action begins.

Boilermaker

misetich

(01/26/2003; 09:16:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95667)

Individual States Financial Crisis

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/26/business/yourmoney/26TAXX.htmlSnip:

Forecasters say the states may come up short next year by as much as $80 billion, which would create the biggest state budget crisis since World War II. A merry holiday season in cyberspace, meanwhile, has pumped up the receipts of online retailers � to $78 billion last year, according to Forrester Research, an increase of more than 50 percent over 2001.
***********
Misetich

Problems occur when the masses are guided and led in the same direction - as Greenspan said (paraphrasing) How can so many economists and investors be wrong? at the height of the bubble

They were Dr. Greenspan - they were - and you led them to the slaughter -

Got to go - I hear a song - its the fat lady tuning up

Got gold?

Boxman

(01/26/2003; 09:28:19 MDT - Msg ID: 95668)

UK groups hit by �100bn pensions crisis

Golden Star traded $21 in 1996 when gold was around $385.Snip:

"Britain's biggest companies are facing a �100bn black hole in their pension schemes after disastrous falls in share prices on the London stock markets over the past 10 days.

The shocking deficit represents a 10-fold increase on the gap disclosed by The Telegraph just six months ago. Its alarming escalation has been calculated by Hewitt Bacon & Woodrow, the leading firm of actuaries, which has the best data on pension performance."

We have the same problem here in the good old USA. Should our markets take out their October lows, and then some, many companies will not be able to survive. Another record year for bankruptcies?

Boxman

(01/26/2003; 09:30:55 MDT - Msg ID: 95669)

Correct link

http://www.portal.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;$sessionid$0B5HOHFQQQASTQFIQMFSFFOAVCBQ0IV0?xml=/money/2003/01/26/cnpens26.xml&sSheet=/money/2003/01/26/ixfrontcity.htmlSorry about that previous link, I don't know how I managed to do that.

misetich

(01/26/2003; 09:35:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95670)

Money Market Funds - Negative Returns? Loss of capital?

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/26/business/yourmoney/26MONE.htmlSnip:

"We expect all money market funds to maintain a positive yield," said Peter Crane, vice president and managing editor of iMoneyNet, publisher of Money Fund Report, which monitors the $2.3 trillion business.
Mr. Crane predicted that returns, after expenses, would settle at an average of about three-quarters of 1 percent in the next few months and that sponsors, while pinched, would not need to take significantly greater risks with fund portfolios to keep them in the black. For the week ended last Tuesday, rates averaged 0.82 percent, down from 0.84 percent the previous week. Investors poured an additional $6.95 billion into the funds during the week.
Bruce R. Bent, chairman and chief executive of the Reserve Funds and a money market pioneer, agreed that investors' principal was not in jeopardy.
..........
Misetich

No inflation? With the printing presses across the world going into extremes - housing costs rocketing - headline inflation (specially in services) climbing - energy costs zooming...stock market losses - negative returns -market funds

Ahh the joy of a gold investor as he/she preserves their wealth

When the going is tough- the tough get going - PHYSICAL GOLD - GET SOME!

Got gold?

Belgian

(01/26/2003; 09:36:46 MDT - Msg ID: 95671)

@ Hipplebeck

Yes indeed, Sir...there are masses of gold-derivatives IN EURO !!! I never suggested otherwise. But *** WHY *** and *** WHATFOR *** do these derivatives exist !!!-???
This cannot be answered with any one-liner ! That's why I do refer so frequently to A/FOA & Co, where all these answers are condensated after decades of intense study and experiences !

For the last time : Don't let the "euro" and its concepts, impacting / influence, you "emotionally" as to trouble your view(s) on the Big Picture. Accept the fact that the euro has an intrinsic tradition of "savings" behind it, in contrast with the dollar's tradition of (internal + external) debt...upon debt !
I've been emphasizing this important aspect already in so much different ways. Nice weekend to you.

21mabry

(01/26/2003; 09:39:03 MDT - Msg ID: 95672)

middle east

is the problem with the middle east the way the colnial powers redrew the maps after ww1 and ww2.are many of these states and ruling families percieved by their populations as artificial and illigetimate.are many of them seen as tools of western imperalism.isreal should have the right to exist,imo their claim to the land is valid but the palestians have a very real claim also.this needs to be worked out.weapons and our ability to kill increase far faster than our intelligence,i fear the weapons of the future.is there a way to have peace for everyone in the region or do oil concerns make that impossible.a solution to the problem would be a cheap abudent fuel to replace oil but thats not gonna happen until there is no more oil.i gotta go with the raiders today whats the line

donnemuir

(01/26/2003; 09:39:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95673)

****379.3****

Market psychology will drive the price of gold just as it did in 1979/80. High profile talking heads begin to say the word "GOLD" and the paper chasers will react just as they did to the "dot.con" (John Cassidy..The Greatest Story Ever Sold).

Follow the real money, buy physical gold now before you're priced out of the market...before it becomes scarce at any price.

a nation of one

(01/26/2003; 09:48:37 MDT - Msg ID: 95674)

to boilermaker

Within the entire range of human perception, there is a lot of room for variation.

R Powell

(01/26/2003; 09:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 95675)

Some further derivative thoughts

A nation of one just questioned Sinclair's theory that a derivatives crisis exists in gold.
I have some facts and some speculation on this subject but, again, as always, these pertain to the open world exchanges, specifically Comex, and not to any over the counter (OTC) non-transparent deals. OTC is a misnomer, they should be called back-room, out-of-sight or private deals.

The idea of even being able to set a future price of $354/ounce or any price to indicate some positions being under water is impossible. It is impossible because the derivatives markets are not static, they are constantly changing, reacting to the price from which they derive their monetary value. How do they react? Mostly positions are initiated, offset or hedged in accordance with the ever changing perceived risks involved and/or opportunities for gain. What, in turn, determines these. Price changes. What determines price changes? Yes, that's the puzzle! While it is possible to mark-to-market one's position using a set price of gold, this determined value will change as soon as gold starts trading again. Any trader or trading system with profitable positions will seek to protect (hedge) that profit, take the profit by offsetting positions, or set limit offset orders (stop loss orders) to insure at least some profit should the market turn unfavorable. These safeguards are initiated as soon as the position is taken. Naked positions are rare and usually taken through the use of options to limit risk. To think that huge amounts of derivative monetary risk will simply sink into losses over a long period of time, and that any set price ($354) can be predicted in advance as a "meltdown" point shows a complete lack of knowledge as to how these markets work. Mr. Sinclair is NOT unfamilar with derivatives markets, he probably knows more than many of the best combined. I, too, wish he would elaborate on his thoughts.

Citing Enron's fraudulent use of derivatives and then concluding that all derivatives are fraudulent is about the same as seeing one person run down by an automobile and then concluding that all automobiles are killers. Derivatives provided only the means to commit fraud. Normal derivatives exchange transactions are marked-to-market every day, with gains and losses computed. This has to be done to insure that the clearinghouses keep sufficient margin in each client's account to cover loses. The much ballyhoo-ed counterparty risk is covered be margin. If the margin is lost due to price changes, it must be replenished immediately or the position is offset. Neither your broker, nor the floortraders, nor the exchange hold this margin. It is held by the clearinghouses. Will a huge unforseen price move cause counterparty default? No system is perfect and financial panics occasionally happen. Did the natural gas exchange market suffer any disruptions when natural gas prices increased four times in a relatively short time? No. Were there OTC or private bankruptcies? Probably and California got taken to the cleaners but the natural gas market did not default. There were no disruptions at all.

As for A nation of one's idea that Mr. Sinclair or any analyst that's good enough to make a fortune in trading but is still selling advice is suspect, perhaps there are indeed traders who prefer to remain anonymous. Many do not. There is a whole lot more to taking money out of markets than just correctly predicting price movements. Some great analysts are lousy traders and some totally ignorant analysts are great traders. The rest of us are somewhere inbetween. Being both a good analyst and a good trader is rare. It may well be that Sinclair is both, and still chooses to publish his thoughts. I believe his much publicised and unanswered challenge to the Elliot Wavers gives much insight into the man's ego. The driving force is being able to fiqure out the puzzle, making money is only that part of the reward that buys time to continue working on the puzzle. The puzzle has no final solution, it, like the value of a derivatives positions, is constantly in flux, ever changing as is life.
Thoughts?
Rich

erayboy

(01/26/2003; 09:57:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95676)

ABX and GG - Some Thoughts

Although hedged, ABX is the largest GOLD producer, and GG is an unhedged quality miner. In view of GOLD's continuing spectacular rise this week, why would ABX outpace GG?

There are probably many contributing factors, but the two obvious ones I considered are:

1. ABX is the most widely known miner, and, therefore, likely to get uninformed buyers following the last-minute recommendations of the wall street analysts. IE: The sheeple have begun buying GOLD stocks. Mainstream TV is now talking about GOLD investing as a possible alternative to holding falling stocks (CNBC and Rukeyser), but the issue of hedging becomes secondary if "jumping in" is the priority.

2. ABX was probably lagging GG (just as the XAU has lagged the HUI), and the mining stocks were due for a periodic rotation into the relatively undervalued "majors". This action may become more balanced in the coming weeks.

Both possibilities support the expectation of a continuing rise in GOLD and mining shares.

Waverider

(01/26/2003; 10:14:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95677)

For now, the outlook for gold is golden

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/026/business/For_now_the_outlook_for_gold_is_golden+.shtmlSnippit
"War worries generated a lot of ugly financial numbers last week. The stock market sunk and the dollar piled up an unprecedented nine-day losing streak against the Euro. Then there was gold, the shining investment story of 2002 that continued to advance and reach a six-year high last week. Gold for February delivery climbed to $368.40 by Friday, the highest closing price on the spot market since the end of 1996.

Gold thrives on anxiety and economic uncertainty. The threat of war, especially a conflict that lacks support from American allies, qualifies in spades. Gold prices, up about 25 percent last year, have gained another 5 percent this year. So here's a fair question: What would happen to gold if we all woke up tomorrow to discover Saddam Hussein living in exile somewhere other than Iraq? Crisis over....

Waverider: This is not too bad an article in that the author mentions some economic fundamentals in Golds favor, as well as some supply issues. I emailed him the link for the DMR, as I am doing with all articles which invite feedback.

misetich

(01/26/2003; 10:25:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95678)

Mexico May Tap Reserves to Back Peso, Damp Inflation (Update2)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Top%20News&T=sa_content.ht&s=APjB_XRVDTWV4aWNvSnip:

Mexico City, Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico's central bank may draw on its $48 billion of reserves for the first time in four years to steady the peso after the currency weakened to record lows and stoked concern that inflation could accelerate.
The central bank may buy pesos and act to raise interest rates if ``disorganized conditions'' in the market raise inflation expectations, said Jose Sidaoui, a bank deputy governor. The peso fell Tuesday to a record low.
The bank's willingness to tap record high reserves underscores concern that a decline of 7 percent in peso during the last three months will fuel inflation by encouraging companies to raise prices and unions to demand higher wages.
**********
Misetich

The South/Central American economies are closely tied to the fortunes of the US -
and the outlook isn't too promising...

Lets stay tuned on this trail

Got gold?

Hipplebeck

(01/26/2003; 10:28:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95679)

(No Subject)

Isn't it amazing that we all can spot the inherent flaw in a chain letter scheme or a pyramid scam, yet we can't recognize one that we are engulfed in on a global scale?

Cytek

(01/26/2003; 10:42:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95680)

M.A Nystrom's predictions for GOLD 2003

Outlook & Predictions 2003:
The Deflationary Spiral Deepens

SEATTLE - 31 December 2002 by M.A. Nystrom

WAR
Buy the rumor, sell the news. It is one of the oldest, most well known trading axioms in the book, and one that everyone always seems to manage to forget. The recent rise in the price of gold ($350) and oil ($33) are reflecting the fear, uncertainty and anticipation of war. The Battle of Iraq will begin in the first quarter of 2003. A decisive resolution to the Iraq situation, which like in 1992 is likely, will decisively reverse the price trends of these commodities.

Just as in the last war with Iraq, the prices of these commodities rose in anticipation of war, but stood down almost immediately after the bombing began. This time will likely be no different. Once it becomes clear that the U.S. is on the way to full control over the oil supplies in Iraq (2nd largest reserve in the world), oil prices will fall. Gold, as a calamity hedge, will fail to breach $400 /oz and as calamity fails to materialize, fall back to under $308 / oz.

From a longer term perspective, however, it is clear that the United States is on a warpath, and Iraq is but one battle. The next, more complex and challenging target will be North Korea, but that is another story. The vague war against the 'Axis of Evil' that the U.S. has embarked upon will go on and on for years to come and will drive and shape our domestic economy in ways that we cannot currently imagine. Over time, there is no doubt that gold and oil will rise to heights beyond current belief, but not in 2003.

Cytek - yes buy the rumor and sell the news is true, but i say only 5% of the POG's price is about WAR. Nystrom will be eating crow pie before too long. I also believe that Sadamm will not take this one lying down this time. Pray for our boys over there.

Hipplebeck

(01/26/2003; 10:46:05 MDT - Msg ID: 95681)

Belgian

Yes, Us citizens once had an intrinsic tradition of savings too.
That all kind of changed when they found out they had the power to print money in unlimited quantities.
You can be assured that the Euro will truly find its level of value when their power to print unlimited quantities is exploited too. I am sure we can all trust European bankers much more than US bankers.

Hipplebeck

(01/26/2003; 10:54:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95682)

(No Subject)

The concept of money only works when there is an actual, real, tangible peg to something in reality.
Let's just say that if every man gets to measure his manhood with a ruler of his own making, we all become giants.
A/FOA are not the only ones with decades of intense study and experiences.

sector

(01/26/2003; 10:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 95683)

No Disruptions in the Ngas market? Not even a little?

Not even a smidge?C'mon Rich. Us guys who watched as Ngas ran upwards know there were disruptions, bankruptcies [El Paso] and all manner of new regulatory developments [Sarbanes]. As for manipulation in the run up...that much has been admitted to by Enron traders and they face prosecution for it. Some JPM players, too, face criminal prosecution for the damage they caused. Whether the market was disrupted is a matter of viewpoint--Gray Davis would suggest that it was...to his state's expense. The market will be altered in such a manner to prevent the kind of abuses experienced in the Ngas chaos.

Is Sinclair correct that $354 was and is a valid strike price with formerly huge open interest? Sure he is. The records of COMEX strike position is right out in the open. Indeed GATA has the entire COMEX spectrum of positions plotted in near real-time. Every position, every strike. And you ARE quite correct that positions change in a dynamic manner.

Sinclair suggests that the gold derivatives players who are short are suffering losses and are in the process of covering. I don't know that today, but "everybody with a brain" as 'a nation of one' says, knows the Ashanti Washington Agreement story. A story of near bankruptcy as a result of gold derivative shorting in the face of a quickly spiking price.

Sinclair is correct in that shorts are hurting [Those central banks that loaned, swapped or sold forward their bullion vault gold are the ones most clearly damaged]. That 16,000 tonne gold reserve has been changed from a "Holding" to a "Receivable" and that is real damage as the price of gold keeps rising because the gold can't be returned at the same price it was originally offered. So the loss of that gold may be simply made permanent by electing to never replace it. In any event, the "Receivable" gold can't be used again for the purpose of shorting.

I think that some folks are hoping the gold price will move vertically to $400-$500-$600 in a few weeks and are disappointed that is hasn't happened. Many are very disappointed that the shares have lagged the metal. What HAS happened is a near linear, upward move since Dec 4, 2003. The trace resembles a frozen rope with very little excursions from the regression line [.89R^2]. That date [Dec 4th] was one day before SECTREAS O�Neill and Lawrence Lindsay ware fired. That date was the death sentence for the "Strong Dollar Policy" and the birth of the new gold bull move to a price high enough to lure gold back into the market and therefore afford the Western central banks a breather from their gold loaning and selling.

I differ with Sinclair in that he still clings, although not religiously, to the wave notions of Elliott and Prechter. Their ideas of price actions based upon two countervailing forces [Fear and Greed] are invalid in a market that has been proven to contain a third force � the government. It is that third force of government intervention that makes the future price unpredictable using only past price as a datum. Elliott wave techniques DO function well in a two-party domain and can be shown to be very useful there. Elliott wavers are BlackJack, card-counters in a game with an unknown number of decks -- they can't know the probability balance because they don't know the number of cards in play.

Sinclair is a savvy guy and seems to know how to deftly move in and out of the gold market at precise times. For me however it's the boring buy and hold tactic.

Perhaps this move is a nothing more than controlled devaluation, like we had [Albeit chaotically] in 1971?

a nation of one

(01/26/2003; 11:07:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95684)

Re: R Powell

"Any trader or trading system with profitable positions will seek to protect (hedge) that profit, take the profit by offsetting positions, or set limit offset orders (stop loss orders) to insure at least some profit should the market turn unfavorable."

--There are exceptions to this. One reason not use stop orders is to prevent being moved out of the market by others. To remain in control of one's own resources, it is necessary to be able to withstand wide movements in price. This increases the strength of one's hand.

a nation of one

(01/26/2003; 11:10:19 MDT - Msg ID: 95685)

Re: R Powell

"To think that huge amounts of derivative monetary risk will simply sink into losses over a long period of time, and that any set price ($354) can be predicted in advance as a "meltdown" point shows a complete lack of knowledge as to how these markets work."

--This statement is consistent with my view.

a nation of one

(01/26/2003; 11:30:01 MDT - Msg ID: 95686)

Re: R Powell

You have stated a number of things which need saying.

Buyers and holders of physical gold -especially at this stage of a new bull market in gold- follow a wise course. Many purchasers of gold bullion, if they traded in futures contracts, would be too small to withstand large movements in price, yet, by buying and holding, they are in fact strong hands. This is not in the interest of futures contracts brokers, who only make money if their customers give them buy orders or sell orders. Also, holders of real gold have several advantages over traders. One, they have the benefit of knowing the maximum potential loss they could possibly suffer. Shorters especially do not have this luxury but must be on their toes at all times, ready to take quick action to protect their assets. Two, if the price goes down, and they may still feel confident they are still in a bull market and feel pressure to sell. This would not be the case if they instead held futures contracts, because, for one thing, their broker would be likely to call them and try to talk them into doing something, such as get out, pay a commission, then buy back in at a lower price. What often goes wrong, however, is that, particularly in the early stages of a bull market, the price does not go down, yet the broker has made his commission, won't give it back just because it was wrong, and the customer has to buy back in later at a higher price than he sold at. This makes the liquidation value of the customer's account less than it would have been if he had not sold. Brokers do not tell customers this. And many customers do not figure it out. It is nice to be able to sit back and watch gold go up, and know that you actually possess it. And it is just as nice -sometimes even nicer, especially in a market that you know is a bull- when POG goes down, as it frequently does, with you knowing that your own personal stash has not gone anywhere or done anything.
Your observation about forecasters and successful traders not always being the same person is revealing of the nature of the world. It is easier to justify what something is going to do, than it is to actually be correct about it. Those who are correct about it tend to be involved more in the actual doing of the thing itself, instead of in broadcasting predictions about it.
And here I should admit that this -to some degree- includes me.

a nation of one

(01/26/2003; 11:33:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95687)

correction

I wrote: "Two, if the price goes down, and they may still feel confident they are still in a bull market and feel pressure to sell."

I meant to write: "Two, if the price goes down, and they feel confident that they are still in a bull market, they need feel no pressure to sell."

a nation of one

(01/26/2003; 11:37:30 MDT - Msg ID: 95688)

Re: Hipplebeck (1/26/03; 10:28:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 95679)

Your observation: "Isn't it amazing that we all can spot the inherent flaw in a chain letter scheme or a pyramid scam, yet we can't recognize one that we are engulfed in on a global scale?"

--To what are you referring, specifically?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/26/2003; 11:40:37 MDT - Msg ID: 95689)

Ally yourself with a gold broker that is knowledgeable and also cares...

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

newsletter

ABCs book Take note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

a nation of one

(01/26/2003; 11:42:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95690)

Reply to Cytek (1/26/03; 10:42:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 95680)

"Cytek - yes buy the rumor and sell the news is true, but i say only 5% of the POG's price is about WAR. Nystrom will be eating crow pie before too long."

--It seems reasonable to agree with you about this. The dollar is going down for its own reasons, having nothing to do with war. What else is needed to make more dollars needed to buy a particle of gold?

Hipplebeck

(01/26/2003; 11:44:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95691)

a nation of one

My reference is to the dollar ponzi.
It must always grow or it collapses.

I am going to use the new euro concept next time I get a speeding ticket.
"You don't understand the new concept officer, I have a floating speedometer. No matter how fast I go, it adjusts so that I am always going 35 miles an hour."
Or maybe I'll just make adjustable mileage markers or even better yet, adjustable time.

Maverick1

(01/26/2003; 11:46:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95692)

Look at some of these Tocom shorts!

http://www.tocom.or.jp/kan_toku/kan_toku_au_e.htmlNo wonder Andy Smith of Mitsui is bearish on gold...look at his company's short position on gold.

Take a gander at Sumitomo's (copper scandal fame) short position.

a nation of one

(01/26/2003; 11:52:15 MDT - Msg ID: 95693)

sector

I enjoy your posts. Thanks.

You say: "Sinclair is a savvy guy and seems to know how to deftly move in and out of the gold market at precise times."

--It is kind of hard to be sure of this, since we cannot see his personal records as well as he can. (I do notice, however, that you used the word 'seems,' which implies that your assertion is conditional.)

a nation of one

(01/26/2003; 11:56:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95694)

@ Hipplebeck (1/26/03; 11:44:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 95691)

You say: "Or maybe I'll just make adjustable mileage markers or even better yet, adjustable time."

--I think Einstein already tried that. He didn't receive any traffic citations that I know of. But how much did he drive?

21mabry

(01/26/2003; 11:58:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95695)

fair price for gold

based upon 1913 dollars the first year of federal reserve i may have wrong year.what iwould be the price of gold now if it was not being manipulated.what would be the price of gold in 1980 dollars in a truly free market.at what point in 2003 fiat dollars does gold become fairly valued.i think gold is still very undervalued and still represents a buying oppurtunity.on free trade there is only free trade for trans national corporation not for you and me.try to go to another country in nafta or gatt and bring back a load of merchandise and see what happens.true free trade should be for everyone not just the elite.then i could support it.

a nation of one

(01/26/2003; 12:00:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95696)

@ Maverick1 (1/26/03; 11:46:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 95692)

You say: "Look at some of these Tocom shorts!
http://www.tocom.or.jp/kan_toku/kan_toku_au_e.html"

--Oh thank you very much for posting this link. I have for too long been relatively ignorant about this.

Mr Gresham

(01/26/2003; 12:01:09 MDT - Msg ID: 95697)

sector

Bingo!

I think you nailed it once more. Sinclair's great, but, this IS a once-in-a-lifetime POLITICAL move.

I'm not sure he's an Elliott guy, but a TA trader for sure. And that includes a lot of wisdom for investors about measuring their own psychology. ("Taking some profits off the table", etc.)

I believe Prechter (at least from his latest book) has the major turn called in the long Fed experiment, and it will be interesting to see when he abandons the USD as the numeraire for his many wonderful charts.

Everything WILL deflate, but it will be against REAL money, not against a dying Ponzi con game.

There will be gains in the stocks, but not with the leverage expected. More on a par with physical, and with a lot more anxiety. Different animals.

For me, that $10 or so coin spread or premium says "No trading, no selling". Not until it becomes an insignificant amount in the overall price. I think pullbacks will be "rest stops", not dives.

If I were in stocks, futures, options, then "Sure, trade away!"

sector

(01/26/2003; 12:02:56 MDT - Msg ID: 95698)

@ maverick1 Andy Smith of Mitsui...Short? Who Would Have Thought?

Your TOCOM research has revealed what has been an open secret for yearsThat the three big Japanese shorters [Mitsui, Sumitomo and Mitsubishi] are nearly 100% short...nearly 100% of the time. Look carefully at the maturities and especially their open interest.

They are short up market and down. It doesn't matter. Short is good for them.

This suggests that the Bank of Japan [Either alone or with help from the G-10] guarantees to cover their losses while they dutifully stay short and Andy Smith "Advises" the gold world as an "Expert".

You have rediscovered the truly sleazy side of precious metals commodities trading -- that it is corrupt to the core.

As a result of the Sarbanes legislation we may get a similar position report on the COMEX or at least a required disclosure statement from traders

Gandalf the White

(01/26/2003; 12:04:15 MDT - Msg ID: 95699)

WOWSERS Sir Maverick1 !!!! THAT LINK was EYE OPENING !!

http://www.tocom.or.jp/kan_toku/kan_toku_au_e.htmlMaverick1 (1/26/03; 11:46:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 95692)
Look at some of these Tocom shorts!
http://www.tocom.or.jp/kan_toku/kan_toku_au_e.html
No wonder Andy Smith of Mitsui is bearish on gold...look at his company's short position on gold.
====
THANKS tonnes !
I have added that one to my list of important Webpages !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/26/2003; 12:14:30 MDT - Msg ID: 95700)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !UPDATE as of 12:00 (HIGH NOON) Sunday 01/26/03 Denver Time.
===
WARNING that there is less than THREE DAYS before the Entry DEADLINE !! TICK TOCK !!! <;-)

IF I have missed anyones Entry, PLEASE YELL at me !

---
QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003:

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 = $358.1 + $7.0 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a Low = $350.0
1/17/03 = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a Low = $355.3 and Sir ROCK was "King of the Hill" !
1/21/03 = $357.5 + $0.7 with a HIGH = $358.1 and a Low = $353.4 and Sir Goldenboy was "KING of the HILL"
1/22/03 = $359.9 + $2.4 with a HIGH = $360.4 and a Low = $357.8 and Sir Henri was "KING of the HILL!"
1/23/03 = $364.6 + $4.7 with a HIGH = $367.7 and a Low = $360.0 and ... WOWSERS .. A TIE !!
...........................................................BOTH Sir monTROZ & Sir Rock are "KINGS of the Hill !!!"
1/24/03 = $368.4 + $3.8 with a HIGH = $370.2 and a Low = $362.8 and Sir J-Bullion is NOW "King of the Hill"

===
ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

**** $750.0 **** Caradoc (1/17/03; 10:49:20MT - msg#: 94778

**** $480.3 **** Cometose (1/23/03; 10:01:34MT - msg#: 95329

**** $427.4 **** rsjacksr (1/24/03; 09:47:47MT - msg#: 95443

**** $426.2 **** drawmax (1/20/03; 08:09:53MT - msg#: 94990)

**** $419.4 **** The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - msg#: 94798

**** $404.5 **** Magister Aurelius (1/23/03; 10:23:42MT - msg#: 95332

**** $403.5 **** misetich (1/17/03; 18:25:29MT - msg#: 94815

**** $400.0 **** Sundeck (1/17/03; 04:25:05MT - msg#: 94737

**** $398.8 **** Beach (1/25/03; 14:37:16MT - msg#: 95611

**** $396.4 **** Bulldog (1/17/03; 20:05:57MT - msg#: 94825

**** $395.1 **** Pizz (1/23/03; 10:48:12MT - msg#: 95337

**** $392.2 **** omegaman (1/25/03; 00:21:10MT - msg#: 95553

**** $390.0 **** Galerider (01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - msg#: 94724)

**** $388.8 **** Shanti (01/24/03; 10:20:12MT - msg#: 95448

**** $387.5 **** knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - msg#: 94800

**** $386.2 **** Basil (1/26/03; 01:04:02MT - msg#: 95645

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (1/17/03; 05:12:59MT - msg#: 94738

**** $384.5 **** Tate (1/25/03; 08:24:55MT - msg#: 95574

**** $383.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - msg#: 94791

**** $382.5 **** Hipplebeck (1/18/03; 06:47:33MT - msg#: 94850

**** $381.0 **** Camel (01/24/03; 18:38:52MT - msg#: 95519

**** $380.2 **** pinetree (1/23/03; 09:04:28MT - msg#: 95322

**** $379.3 **** donnemuir (1/26/03; 09:39:48MT - msg#: 95673

**** $379.1 **** ha_tey_o (1/17/03; 07:24:56MT - msg#: 94741

**** $378.9 **** erayboy (1/17/03; 03:05:04MT - msg#: 94729
**** $378.8 **** miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - msg#: 94805

**** $378.1 **** a nation of one (01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - msg#: 94720

**** $377.0 **** Frosty (01/24/03; 18:01:40MT - msg#: 95516

**** $376.2 **** GoldenSun (1/23/03; 09:26:38MT - msg#: 95325

**** $375.5 **** balzac (1/18/03; 14:15:59MT - msg#: 94880

**** $375.0 **** Mountain Top (1/19/03; 10:56:32MT - msg#: 94937

**** $374.6 **** harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - msg#: 94792

**** $374.1 **** Slowman (1/17/03; 06:10:05MT - msg#: 94739
**** $374.0 **** Zhisheng (1/17/03; 09:53:34MT - msg#: 94762

**** $373.5 **** kahulik (01/20/03; 11:08:21MT - msg#: 94998

**** $372.2 **** Houston (1/19/03; 10:30:11MT - msg#: 94934

**** $372.0 **** OZ (1/17/03; 02:14:25MT - msg#: 94727
**** $371.9 **** silvercollector (1/22/03; 05:15:12MT - msg#: 95191
**** $371.8 **** Time For GOLD (1/22/03; 11:17:36MT - msg#: 95211

**** $371.2 **** Achilles (1/23/03; 09:27:54MT - msg#: 95326

**** $370.9 **** Richman (1/22/03; 11:18:21MT - msg#: 95212

**** $370.5 **** VanRip (1/17/03; 07:59:23MT - msg#: 94747
**** $370.4 **** The Knife (1/26/03; 06:14:53MT - msg#: 95652
**** $370.3 **** Casey (01/23/03; 13:32:42MT - msg#: 95349

**** $370.1 **** Black Blade (1/23/03; 10:00:48MT - msg#: 95328

**** $369.9 **** Ole Man (1/18/03; 23:30:28MT - msg#: 94912

**** $369.5 **** Truthcaster (1/23/03; 09:18:53MT - msg#: 95323

**** $369.2 **** slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - msg#: 94796

**** $369.0 **** wiley (01/21/03; 12:21:41MT - msg#: 95102

**** $368.7 **** Toolie (01/23/03; 20:26:50MT - msg#: 95394

**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750

**** $368.2 **** Zelts (01/21/03; 07:34:30MT - msg#: 95080

**** $367.4 **** Kagalaska (01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - msg#: 94721

**** $366.0 **** White Rose (01/21/03; 09:29:59MT - msg#: 95093

**** $365.6 **** Shermag (1/26/03; 07:59:54MT - msg#: 95660

**** $365.2 **** pilgrims_gold (1/18/03; 10:01:47MT - msg#: 94863

**** $365.0 **** monTROZ (01/20/03; 12:50:24MT - msg#: 95005

**** $364.2 **** Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - msg#: 94755

**** $363.0 **** luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - msg#: 94795

**** $362.5 **** EagleOne (1/18/03; 14:02:13MT - msg#: 94877

**** $362.3 **** Renny (1/18/03; 05:15:47MT - msg#: 94848

**** $362.0 **** Albatros (01/21/03; 07:48:42MT - msg#: 95081

**** $361.7 **** mudr (01/23/03; 20:19:27MT - msg#: 95391

**** $361.1 **** Lothar of the Hill People (01/20/03; 13:51:40MT - msg#: 95013

**** $360.8 **** Liberty Head (01/20/03; 19:45:52MT - msg#: 95040

**** $360.5 **** Felix the Cat (1/20/03; 03:35:20MT - msg#: 94984

**** $360.0 **** Henri (1/18/03; 15:28:31MT - msg#: 94886

**** $359.7 **** Alaskan hunter (01/23/03; 14:12:45MT - msg#: 95355

**** $359.1 **** 24carat (1/18/03; 16:10:36MT - msg#: 94889

**** $358.0 **** makcumka (1/20/03; 05:44:13MT - msg#: 94987

**** $357.6 **** goldenboy (01/21/03; 09:16:39MT - msg#: 95092

**** $355.1 **** MO VER MEG (1/26/03; 08:24:25MT - msg#: 95663

**** $348.0 **** Topaz (1/17/03; 03:06:48MT - msg#: 94730

**** $203.0 **** Around The Corner (01/24/03; 11:01:41MT - msg#: 95452

===

INVALID ENTRIES
---
NONE !!!!!!
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.
---

THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February �03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 -----

The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old) goldpiece !!
Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin was
Minted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce.
(Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)
---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
(Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines"
LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!!
READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
---
LET the CONTEST CONTINUE !!
<;-)

Cavan Man

(01/26/2003; 12:15:37 MDT - Msg ID: 95701)

sector

Keep up the good work!

Maverick1

(01/26/2003; 12:18:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95702)

I can't take credit for that link

It was posted next door. Just thought I should pass it along.

sector

(01/26/2003; 12:21:55 MDT - Msg ID: 95703)

@Mr G. Watch the Shares this week now that...

Tony "The Bush Poodle" Blair has said "Give the Inspectors some time"The shares have been waiting and waiting for a "Technical" pull-back that hasn't and won't happen. Soooo...something's gotta give.

All that remains is for the speculators to see that and jump on the gold shares. Lance Lewis [Whom I follow for the tech temperature and its canary-in-the coal-mine value] suggests that the gold shares are poised for a big move through their May highs to a point that will discount an end-of-year estimated gold price. There are so few gold shares that one can expect an emphatic bidding move.

If one uses Dec 4th 2002 as the start point of the new gold and former "Strong Dollar" regime, then $620 per ounce is the Jan 2004 price of gold.

This is plausible in that the President's former "Strong Dollar" water-boy, Lindsay was dumped in anger by the President on the 5th of December. Maybe he spilled the water

BTW -- anybody seen Dick "Mad Dog" Cheney lately? Perhaps he's skiing.

(01/26/2003; 12:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 95704)

Flipping the Elliott Wave Coin

I have something to add to a couple points you made in #95683.

When you said,

"I differ with Sinclair in that he still clings, although not religiously, to the wave notions of Elliott and Prechter. Their ideas of price actions based upon two countervailing forces [Fear and Greed] are invalid in a market that has been proven to contain a third force � the government.It is that third force of government intervention that makes the future price unpredictable using only past price as a datum. Elliott wave techniques DO function well in a two-party domain and can be shown to be very useful there. Elliott wavers are BlackJack, card-counters in a game with an unknown number of decks -- they can't know the probability balance because they don't know the number of cards in play."

I recalled again a story I've told here a number of times which illustrates how two people using the same technigues and the same data can come to completely opposing conclusions. Years ago, George Cooper questioned Prechter's conclusions on gold and thought to contact Prechter's mentor, A.J. Frost, to see if his long-wave count differed from Robert's or was substantially the same. Mr. Frost was ill at the time and Robert Prechter himself provided the count. The result of that inquiry, published in News & Views some years ago, was startling. Frost's opinion -- which in my view more closely approximates the real and current market direction ( i.e., we could possibly be in the "third wave" of the long super cycle according to his count. Third waves are long duration and muscular in full bloom. In other words, what we are seeing now using ElliottWave/Frost, could go on for years.) -- was almost directly opposite Prechter's. Frost's chart, it seemed, reflected an inflationary bias in the economy (my interpretation) while Prechter's reflected a deflationary bias (well known to his readers).

By the way, not to nitpick but clarify for our readers, Prechter's analysis is not Elliott's. We do not know how Elliott would have analysed the current chart pattern on gold, since he departed the planet long ago. So who's right and who's wrong? To the investor who pursues EW as akin to religion -- and some do -- the fact that two prophets offer completely different visions can be very disconcerting.

I have always been interested in the Elliott Wave theory and I think some of Robert Prechter's work is absolutely brilliant -- particularly his discussions about Elliott Wave almost as a new philosophy. His contribution, not just to the world of finance, but tying the natural sciences to mathematics and then to the markets is a wonder to read and understand -- a revelation. To say that the analysis is captivating is an understatement, and I do believe it reveals something inherent or intrinsic to life on this planet and the markets. The problem (trick) comes in where you put that very first number "one" -- put it in the wrong place and all the analysis that proceeds from there will be wrong as well. Put it in the right place and you will be hailed an Einstein, and your chart beeped as code into the universe for all posterity to behold.

I would also like to make a brief comment about your observation about the third force, ie, "government." I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Prechter would say that the "government" (and its interventions) are in the analysis, represented by those little numbers and letters that annotate his charts. The problem (after getting that first number properly placed) for Prechter and all the Elliott Wave enthusiasts is how much of a move will the market make in one direction or the other -- in other words how does one "predict" a top or a bottom. For this Prechter introduced the mathematics of Fibonacci and that's where we got all these .67 and .33 retracements that you hear market analysts talk about all the time.

When derivatives were introduced in massive quantity/low cost, it extended (exaggerated) the time duration on market moves and that's why the whole Elliott Wave analysis -- no matter who's chart you use -- seems to be less than practical. Some call that "market manipulation" and you can't chart market manipulation -- it's a waste of time, they say.

As I've said many times to those who lament "manipulation", the free market will ultimately have its way no matter what. No manipulation can eternally work against the primary market trend -- the forces of nature depicted in the five wave analysis -- and we have seen the beginnings of that in the gold market as the underlying dollar paradigm itself undergoes a gut-wrenching, though intended, change. The manipulators will finally run out of money and their managers -- patience. And that's where I think we are at the moment.

You are right to bring up Ashanti as victim. The entire hedged mining industry, in my view, will be the most direct and denuded victims of the gold run-up, not the bullion banks (who shall inherit the earth -- as in mining earth) -- something all gold stock investors must take into account because even the unhedged mining company of today may not be the unhedged mining company of the future.

Stuff happens.

Thanks for the very interesting post, Sector. You made my morning and forced me to take the last half-hour at the computer in repsonse. Ultimately it comes down to the utility of either analysis when compared with another probability study all mathematicians are forced to consider -- the proverbial flip of the coin.

All said, Frost's chart ranks higher on the probability list for me than Prechter's at the moment and by quite a gap . . . . with all due respect to an important thinker and analyst who basically introduced all of us to this line of thinking.

PorterSweden

(01/26/2003; 12:26:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95705)

******$471.00******

Gold could quickly anytime now reach and surpass ******$471.00****** !

Gold has been governed by shorts. Gold leased from the Central Banks is gone and will be returned at much higher prices, if at all.

sector

(01/26/2003; 12:29:55 MDT - Msg ID: 95706)

@CavenMan Thanks Bro Go Bucs!

Tampa is wild. Caps cost $25Gold pins are extra.

My wife got me a little sword with a diamond hilt for Christmas. Looks cool.

Now all we need is for the hated Raiders to penalty themselves out on the San Diego "Plank".

Thar's gold in the treasure chests me lads! Don't take no paper!

sector

(01/26/2003; 12:57:37 MDT - Msg ID: 95707)

Thanks MK I'm Leaning More and More

To the Macro View that the sale or leasing of [Western] central bank gold..has helped define the great trends of the last half of the twentieth century. As governments have debased their currencies with deficits, they have had to periodically resort to gold sales to balance that loss of paper currency value.

You are right on to say no force can stop a primary market. Sinclair trumpets this loudly, especially at New Orleans in 2003.

BTW the wave analysis is sometimes referred to a "Catastrophe Theory" and was published back in the 70's as I recall. The population growth or lack thereof of elk on an island was used to measure what happens to a process in disequilibrium. Without wolves [Gold as a watchdog] the population of elk [The 'economy'] grew and grew steadily until it crashed to near zero with the loss of sufficient vegetation for food.

Incidentally, the idea that the future can be predicted by looking at the past is the domain of the physicists [With plastic pocket pen holders] and there is hot debate these days regarding chaos theory. Ilya Prigogine [University of Texas], the grandfather of chaos theory, has written a wonderful little book entitled "The End of Certainty". In it he presents ideas that the future, at appreciable distances from today, is unknowable because of irreversible processes [Like running out of gold to lease]. But that's for another day.

Mr. Gold Market is in control now...maybe he always was...rewarding only the patient and only the true.

Mr Gresham

(01/26/2003; 13:06:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95708)

RPowell

"The driving force is being able to fiqure out the puzzle, making money is only that part of the reward that buys time to continue working on the puzzle. The puzzle has no final solution..."

Rich -- birds of a feather. You've probably spelled out my presence here, and given me a launch point to think beyond it. The curiosity of constant learning, solving problems and mysteries. Fatal attraction?

To some extent, POG is confirming our "solution" to the puzzle. It will be interesting to see if events tend to satisfy our curiosity, or stimulate it further.

To some extent, I can think of this Monetary Education as something of a university course of study. First, catching on via Griffin and websites like this, in mid-1999.

Then following anticipatory events with the likes of FOA. (Still, early on our timing.) Then, having events begin to confirm, as now. This is approaching a four-year span of time, for me.

The follow-through, of course, is "putting bread on the table." Remains to be seen, and done.

I also think of your work in construction, paralleling my own, when I think about "What is my Plan B? What REAL work do I really know how to do, when fiat games go under?" I once fed a large household with those skills (but I probably should have gone for plumbing and electrical), and it will be interesting to see how well an aging body can return to using them.

Mr Gresham

(01/26/2003; 13:25:54 MDT - Msg ID: 95709)

MK/sector

I feel like "A Beautiful Mind" in your midst -- hmmmmm, your brilliant commentary would remind me: "time for my meds", if I took any ;)

Frost, Chaos, -- probably Thomas Aquinas had something to say about all this (Isn't it about time for someone to bring Nostradamus around again?)

And me, I just rode into town on Graham and Dodd, and found myself arbing gold dust at the assayer's office until we can get the railroad tracks built this far, and I can get on to my next assignment.

Keep it up, gents! Minds worthy of their Metal...

Cavan Man

(01/26/2003; 13:44:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95710)

Mr Gresham

I am sitting in the row behind you.

PS: ...and hoping for an orderly market from this juncture.

CBWS

(01/26/2003; 13:52:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95711)

Gold Shares and Euro-vs-$

Belgian, thank you for mentioning the deep waters. I have no evidence, but have wondered if the Euro was facilitating the US problems in Venezuala; beyond the problems the US has made for itself there.....Re: the gold shares being held down by shorts. Does this not drive more people toward bullion? 90% of my holdings are in physical, but I would like to know when my Junior shares will move.......Thank you so much, all, for what I have learned here.

slingshot

(01/26/2003; 13:53:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95712)

Mr. Gresham , Cavan Man

I'm sitting in the balcony.

Woo Hoo!

Slingshot--------------:0)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/26/2003; 14:05:03 MDT - Msg ID: 95713)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

R Powell

(01/26/2003; 14:07:41 MDT - Msg ID: 95714)

Sector // market disruptions

I certainly did not mean to give the impression that there was no manipulation or shenanigans in the natural gas markets. I did refer to bankruptcies and California getting taken to the cleaners. However, the natural gas exchange did not fold nor were there defaults or derivative meltdowns, as in counterparty default in exchange positions. I mention this as imho I do not foresee this occuring even though, I believe, many do. It is often mentioned that the Comex POG and the physical price will separate and the Comex will default and close. It is to this extreme idea that I disagree. It is in this regard that I refered to the natural gas exchange.
Manipulations? Yes. Bankruptcies? Yes. Exchange defaults? I sincerely doubt it.

You mentioned,
"Sinclair suggests that the gold derivatives players who are short are suffering loses and are in the process of covering."

Yes, indeed, and it will continue in this manner in the daily battle between the longs and the shorts. I also see new money entering the gold market on the long side. All great, long term bulls have to have new demand entering on the long side. I still maintain that one set price as in $354 can have no more significance than any other number in a dynamic market where measures and countermeasures are constantly in motion.

I was adding, I hope, to the discussion that A nation of one brought up. Adding only as I agree with most everything he mentioned. I also believe you are spot on with your mention of both O'Neill and Lindsey leaving as a signal of the end of the storng dollar policy. This was indeed a turning point, no? Perhaps we are splitting hairs and the reference to $354 is one of a technical nature. That it portends any meltdown I can not accept without being convinced that my understanding of the mechanics of the game is lacking. There are short positions (an equal number to balance the longs) but whether these shorts were initiated last week or years ago, when the market price started rising, I'm sure countermeasures were taken and are still being taken. Will there be loses? I certainly believe so and hope to be a small counterparty collecting some of those loses which to me will be gains. But will there be any exchange default or meltdown? I don't believe so.
Thanks for the thoughts, back to reading!
Rich

R Powell

(01/26/2003; 14:23:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95715)

A nation of one

You mentioned exceptions to the three methods I mentioned of hedging a profit, taking that profit or stop lose orders to insure some profit.
Of course there are many different methods of trading. I rarely use stop lose orders myself as often they are no more than targets for the floor traders. I was just trying to point out that I can not accept that vast exchange positions were established which will not be monitored or protected while the underlying POG changes. If no changes were allowed, then perhaps the $354 strike could be a meltdown point but the exchange is not static.
BTW, I agree with your first post which initiated this conversation! I thought only to add what I could and have now found a great Sunday afternoon debate! Good work sir!
Rich

Black Blade

(01/26/2003; 14:27:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95716)

Trend of rising interest rates no cause for optimism in U.S.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nb20030127a2.htm
Snippit:

Long-term interest rates are on an upward trend in the United States. The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds, which stood around 3.8 percent in December, has climbed to around 4 percent. But has the U.S. economy been strong enough to trigger a rise in interest rates? The core price index, closely watched by the Federal Reserve Board as an indicator of price trends, declined in 2002, while the latest employment statistics released Jan. 10 show the number of jobless up by 82,000 from a month earlier to 8.6 million, pushing the unemployment rate to 6 percent. Consumer sentiment is also sagging. Why, then, are interest rates rising at a time when price trends and the real state of the economy do not seem to be pushing rates up?

Nonresident capital also flowed into the U.S. as overseas players sought a safe haven, buying the dollar in times of geopolitical uncertainty. However, no such dollar-buying binges appear to be taking place as a possible U.S. military strike on Iraq looms and a game of chicken with North Korea continues to escalate. On the contrary, the dollar has fallen against major currencies, dipping to 1.06 euros and slipping below 120 yen. The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks have left a question mark on the safety of the U.S., and the country continues to be seen as the biggest potential target of future terrorist attacks. Crude oil prices have surged to around $33 per barrel, and gold prices have entered the range of $360 per ounce. This not only indicates that demand for oil and gold is on the rise, but is proof that the value and purchasing power of the dollar are declining.

Black Blade: I agree that the US economy is sick (so are most all other economies). The dollar will continue to plunge and foreign investment will continue to flee US shores. And yes, the "Bone Pile" will rise dramatically is a binge of "cost cutting" giving the Larry Kudlow's of the World plenty to crow about as evidence of "economic recovery". Hmmm� Meanwhile the sleepers are awakening and in their hazy fog realize they no longer in Kansas. The POG should continue to rise unless the sleepers can be lulled back into sleep and only if they are able to forget the nightmare they found when they were awake. Still, there is a lot of "interesting" developments yet to come this week.

Gandy, Sector, and Maverick1 � That Andy Smith is talking his book is not surprising (short approx. 50 tons). The same happened at his old job in the land of chocolate and watches. His last prediction of gold going to $65 an ounce was a bust. He missed the current run up (even though half way through he went tepidly bullish). So I don't take him all that seriously. It is surprising that any do. I wonder if he has any connection to SJ Kaplan? Hmmm�

Oh yeah, GO RAIDERS!

Gandalf the White

(01/26/2003; 14:28:55 MDT - Msg ID: 95717)

Does anyone remember the tune "How High the Moon" <;-)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PTake a look at this P&F chart (LINK) and then tell me which "INVESTMENT" is golden ! Remember where and when I told you my thoughts, SIR MK ?
<;-)

valsteve11

(01/26/2003; 14:43:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95718)

****$583.7****

BAD MOON RISING !!

a nation of one

(01/26/2003; 15:08:54 MDT - Msg ID: 95719)

Ashanti Washington Agreement

While I am not familiar with this particular instance of short selling, which resulted in near bankruptcy, I am aware of the process. There are two things about this that are important, I think. First, short selling can have legitimate use for gold producers, especially if they sell at today's price gold that will only be coming out of the ground later. I know that they evidently sometimes sell short in order to benefit as speculators, but, in doing this, they serve the function of speculators, not producers. It is as speculators that they fail, in other words. When shorting as miners, they are functioning as miners, and probably will not fail. Second, a really good reason not to sell short, for someone like me, is that the risk is potentially much bigger. And it is these types of bets that lead to bankruptcy. The shorter stands liable for all of the gain that is possible, which, although hypothetically infinite, is potentially larger than desired even when real.

Also I would like to point out that there were some pretty strong rumors last summer -written in a place where I am sure we all know- about JPM Chase, and its 43 Trillion dollars all sunk very heavily into derivatives, and about how, when the price of its shares fell below a certain level ($20 I think, though I might be wrong about this), the company would dramatically fold. It didn't happen. And when it did not, then new explanations spewed forth as to why not. That seems to be typical of the industry, if I may say so. In my own life I have found that true knowledge of reality is more valuable than extraneous misrepresentations. Not that I am absolutely perfect all of the time. But for people who want to make money by buying gold, it should seem that misrepresentations of any kind would be looked upon in same light as murder or highway robbery, because it is only real knowledge, not supposed (but corrupted, and so pretended) enlightenment, that consistently will result in dependable gains.

And�ril

(01/26/2003; 15:15:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95720)

Consider

There are Andy Smiths with this job to do because there are HippleBecks who allow it, insist on it. "Gold is money, gold is money, awk squawk skwaaawwk!" The Smith bankers are no different than central Japanese and Swiss bankers talking down their own money brand to keep the books flowing liquidly.

Gold suffers needlessly in this fashion but HippleBecks do no see it while Smiths know it. Welcome intervention of outsiders when needed to end the Smith/Beck cycle of madness. For now gold value remains under a heavy cloak. Can you guess at its unhidden value? Will you stand the chance to be shown?

Black Blade

(01/26/2003; 15:20:01 MDT - Msg ID: 95721)

Mitsui Short Position

Of course the ~50 ton short position on the Tocom could just be a small position considering there are other exchanges worldwide and other markets where they may have substantially more such positions. Then the derivative book could also be unbalanced as well.

Anyway, off to get another case of Negra Modelo, limes, and get snacks ready for the Super Bowl.

- Black Blade

Mr Gresham

(01/26/2003; 15:52:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95722)

Is it me, or...?

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlFirst I wondered, "Is it just me -- and my sweet disposition -- that makes me behave myself around other people's places of business?" but then I just checked, and, No, it is written right there in our Guidelines, Prohibition #1, which I must have read once when I checked in almost 4 years back.

"1. Personal attacks; slanderous or derogatory remarks; off-color jokes; lewd and/or lascivious comments; ethnic, religious and racial slurs."

Sounds about right to me.

I was coming over from a wonderful, lively, UNMODERATED forum that was kind of like the Wild West. And I sort of volunteered myself for the Troll Patrol in that frontier town. Why? They were spoiling my good time. Canceling out the generous efforts of a lot of good people. Kind of leaving that sour taste on a fine evening's reading.

Y'know what? I still hate trolls!

Belgian

(01/26/2003; 15:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95723)

@ CBWS

About Venezuela (OPEC) oil : Most probably, this oil will come under more (renewed) US control, "indirectly" ...with or without a coup d'�tat or some kind of a more pro-US, regime-change! Try to find some good historical reading about Occidental Petroleum. Don't think that this oil can ever be sold to the US for euro. All of the America's will likely remain under the dollar-umbrella, for ever. FWIW !

Your Junior Goldmines : Wish you, sincerely, all the best of luck with this kind of paper-gold, given the actual circumstances !

TownCrier

(01/26/2003; 15:54:23 MDT - Msg ID: 95724)

"...some analysts predicting a spike to $400..."

http://www.finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,5895746%255E462,00.htmlJanuary 27, 2003 -- The growing likelihood of a US-led attack on Iraq lifted gold bullion to a six-year high over the weekend of $US369.80.

Selling pegged it back to about $US359 yesterday but there are now some analysts predicting a spike to $US400 an ounce.

-----(article at url)-----

From the current level, I'd describe a move to $400 as more akin to a tack than a spike. Know what I mean? Put a FIVE in front of those zeros and maybe then we can talk about spikes...

R.

TownCrier

(01/26/2003; 16:15:04 MDT - Msg ID: 95725)

Why do you think the leaders are calm while the experts aren't

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=201&feed=reu§ion=news≠ws_id=reu-l26178094-u1&date=20030126&alias=/alias/money/cm/nwDAVOS-UPDATE 1-Finance leaders calm as euro soars, experts fret

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Experts might fret, but top finance ministers and business leaders at the World Economic Forum are showing surprisingly little concern over the soaring euro and tumbling dollar.

"In these uncertain times with so many downside risks, it is very difficult to count on exchange rates," Caio Koch-Weser, Germany's secretary of state for finance, told Reuters.

This view was common among world economic leaders in meetings here...

--------(article at url)------

Steely behaviour nearly consistent with having a card or two up their sleeve.

R.

R Powell

(01/26/2003; 16:17:09 MDT - Msg ID: 95726)

Black Blade

Mitsui Short Position I think you may have touched upon the possibility of arbitrage here. If the Asian markets run up the POG and it then gets knocked down a little in London and early New York trading, then why not sell high in Asia and buy back at a lower price in New York?
If this pattern continues, why not do this day after day after day.... and there are those who will caring not what commodity or what markets but only that a difference in price exists that can be exploited.

I still see an ask of 367.85
and a bid of 378.70
Interesting!

Black Blade

(01/26/2003; 16:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95727)

Rich

I am sure that happens. That said the growing interest in Gold and the rush to buy physical makes this a more difficult proposition and even more so as more players come on board upsetting the plan.

GAME TIME!!!!

No gym today!!!

- Black Blade

GO RAIDERS!!!

goldquest

(01/26/2003; 17:13:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95728)

OK Spot & Spike

Everyone is off watching the game, so i'm going to turn you loose! I don't think Gandy will mind!

Waverider

(01/26/2003; 17:18:24 MDT - Msg ID: 95729)

Gold/SuperBowl Party at Canada Place

I just returned home from Canada Place and it is rockin' today!! I listened to Thom Calandra for half an hour and then a panel with Bill Murphy, Bob Chapman, David Morgan, Michael Levy, and Jay Taylor. Thom Calandra still holds to his position that we'll see the DOW at 4000 by July, and thinks we very well could see 1000 point down days. The panel just opened it up to the audience and many questions were related to topics discussed in depth on the forum here. The demographics of the conference were very different from last June, many more younger people, and many more women than last summer - word's getting out!
Waverider

BTW - check out INO quotes, we're at $370.30, down $8.30 apparently! At the other site, it's at $370.00, up $2.30

The Invisible Hand

(01/26/2003; 17:43:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95730)

Another anti-war voice, George Soros, warns of end to globalisation

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2696627.stmSNIP:
The worldwide stock market slump, which has seen US tech shares fall by two-thirds and sent UK stocks to seven-year lows, threatens the future of globalisation, billionaire financier George Soros has said

Mr Soros said that 20 years of strong capital flows, backed by rising stock markets, had hidden "deficiencies" within countries' financial systems.
�
Efforts to repair the damage were being undermined by US policymakers' neglect, he said.
"The real threat is that the people in charge - I am talking about the US Treasury, not just the International Monetary Fund - [are not] there," he said.
"The Bush administration has its attention on other things. The problem is not being addressed."
�
Mr Soros warned that the world was threatened by deflation, in which prices fall, and which many economists believe would severely exacerbate the global economic downturn.
With China, economically the world's most "dynamic" country, producing goods at well below the cost of other states, Western firms would be forced to impose price cuts to survive.
"We are teetering on the edge of deflation," he said

canamami

(01/26/2003; 18:16:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95731)

Town Crier

What do believe is the leaders' "card up the sleave"?

Trojan

(01/26/2003; 18:28:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95732)

Oil is key as Bush agrees to month delay

http://www.sundayherald.com/30905After reading the above article and listening to the sound bites on the news all weekend it appears to me that after Blix gives his report to the UN on Monday and GWB gives his SOTU Speech on Tuesday that Bush will try to come across tough but fair.

But won't say much more than he has been saying all along. So on Wednesday we can expect (imo) the UN to be given another month (MAXIMUM) to finish their job.

In the meantime I see the US and Britain make FINAL WAR preparations on Friday (Jan 31) and Saturday
(Feb 1) for the Start of War anytime in EARLY EARLY March.

There probably will be a short Relief Rally in the markets and I wouldn't be surprised to see Gold back off a bit with the respite from IMMEDIATE War talk.

However if Gold doesn't Back Off then it will show that there is very LITTLE War Premium in the price of Gold.

We are looking at a very interesting week coming up.

Stay Tuned...

Chris Powell

(01/26/2003; 18:34:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95733)

Miami and Boston Sunday papers feature gold

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1389Sunday newspapers in Miami and Boston have big
reports on gold as Vancouver Resource Investment
Conference hears from GATA Chairman Murphy.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

mikal

(01/26/2003; 18:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95734)

Another developing reason to own metal

http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/internet/01/26/internet.attack/index.html'Slammer' worm could pick up steam Monday
New vulnerabilities might arise as businesses boot up
Sunday, January 26, 2003 Posted: 7:42 PM EST (0042 GMT)
Excerpt: WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Experts fear Monday could bring new outbreaks of the fast-moving computer worm that snarled business and government computers Saturday, slowing some corporate systems to the point of inaccessibility.
The worm, dubbed "SQL Slammer," attacked via a vulnerability discovered six months ago in SQL Server 2000 software from Microsoft Corp., according to Oliver Friedrichs, a senior manager with Internet security firm Symantec Corp. Microsoft has offered a free patch to fix the trouble spot, but not all users of the server software installed the patch.
Network technicians rushed to fix the vulnerability in hopes of avoiding infection and preventing further outbreaks. Microsoft said the worm does not pose a risk to typical home users.
Experts called the worm the most damaging attack on the Internet in 18 months. Networks across Asia, Europe and the Americas were effectively shut down, Reuters reported.
Friedrichs said the SQL worm "breaks into the server and tries to spread."
"It really generates a lot of network traffic," Friedrichs said. "It's really just going to slow down Internet performance."
By Sunday, most problems has passed, but Monday could bring more problems as businesses boot up their computers for the week.
"Right now, there are 120,000 [Internet Protocol] addresses out searching for systems to infect," said Alan Paller of the SANS Institute, a training organization for technologists who try to protect computer systems and networks.
Paller said the SQL worm did not appear to be affecting files stored on computers. Instead, he said, it was causing trouble by replicating quickly and sending queries across computer lines for more vulnerable computers.
"It's not a major risk. It's not [doing] either of the two things that are terribly damaging," Paller said. "One is hurting people's machines, and one is knocking things [off-line]."
Expert: Worm could signal future attack
Worms of this nature are often precursors to a different type of attack called "distributed denial of service." In that case, computers infected with a worm or other program are directed to send a flood of information to a specific Internet location and force it off-line.
"[Saturday's worm] is the recruitment of soldiers, not telling the soldiers where to aim their guns," Paller said. He described Saturday's activity as a "worm with collateral damage."
If the vulnerability in the SQL software is not patched, Paller said, it is possible that a future denial of service attack could harness the "zombie" machines created Saturday.....End snippit

Kagalaska

(01/26/2003; 18:49:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95735)

I SMELL A RAT

http://www.drudgereport.comMatt Drudge is reporting the possibility of the so called Internet Worm rearing its ugly head again on Monday. Perchance TPTB orchestrated the first wiggling of the Worm to lend credance for its future appearaces,just like DUNE they can call up the Worm to do their bidding,in this case to sow confusion through a disruption of price reporting? Strange it first showed up in South Korea,just where Mondays real market will open and billions of won in gold are sold daily (Sydney closed Mon).http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/tech/200301/kt2003012617520911790.htm Aw shucks why would they do that, bad Kagalaska, for even thinking such dark Machiavllian thoughts.
Buy more silver today at 75-1 and sell at 50-1 or better and buy gold. Call the boys at CPM.
YOU WILL WANT THIS DAY BACK!

Kagalaska

(01/26/2003; 18:52:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95736)

Do-ugh

Whilst typing my last post someone else post the same story. Classic example of the quick and the dead.

Black Blade

(01/26/2003; 19:04:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95737)

Gold is Flat and the Raiders Lose

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=1&sBackUrl=&dbrushwidth=&charttype=&gd1=&gd2=&benchmark=∈fos=∈dtype1=∈dtype2=&volumen=
The POG appears to be stuck around $368 tonight.

So much for the old guys vs. the young guys. Looks like the Raiders didn't take their Geritol today. Call up George Blanda? At least I have my Negras to dull the pain.

- Black Blade

Golden Bear

(01/26/2003; 19:32:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95738)

mikal (msg#: 95734)

https://www.auscert.org.au/render.html?it=2716&cid=2692Hi mikal,

the CNN article you quoted has IMO over dramatized the situation regarding this worm.

Please consider:

1. Businesses typically do not turn their servers off on weekends, especially their database servers, these run 24/7 with scheduled downtime only for hardware/software upgrades.

2. From the link above, analysis of this worm currently shows no destructive payload - therefore there is no software which would be used to take control of the infected servers to use for directed attacks in the future.

The only significant damage caused is by its scanning activities which saturate internet links causing slow or no traffic.

I do not believe there will be any great follow through in the future, as the height of its propagation has already passed, and the ISP's have instigated inbound and outbound filtering across their networks to stop further propagation of the worm.

A lot of hyperbole to whip up fear by the IT security specialists to drum up more business...

Cheers.

ElGordo

(01/26/2003; 19:37:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95739)

Hey Waverider!

I just got back from the conference myself! I really wanted
to hear Tom Calandra and you are right he got some good
questions after his presentation. You beat me to the punch!

For the benefit of the board I will mention a few other remarks
he made. Like you mentioned, he said he expected the DOW to be
around 4000 this Summer and we could see 1000 point drops some days. The group around me was chuckling at that. He also mentioned the fact that the DOW is a price weighted index, not a market cap
weighted index and that 2 stocks-3M and J&J were keeping the DOW
artificially high. If those 2 stocks crack the DOW will tumble fast.

Remember the question about when the markets would bottom out?
He thought it was bottomless lol! He said in his opinion the market
would be down the next 4-5 years and finally bottom out at around DOW 1200! I didn't know he was that bearish. wow

Yes, there were a lot of women at the conference. Some rather attractive goldbuggettes too! :-)

Raiders coming back - but Tampa has too much quickness.

R Powell

(01/26/2003; 19:50:03 MDT - Msg ID: 95740)

Waverider and ElGordo

Any more conference news! I know, it was such fun that both of you forgot to take notes for us, didn't you?

Okay, from memory then, any more stories?

After silver hits $7.00 or better, I'll be able to travel myself and even write off the costs as a business expense. Hey, I don't make the IRS rules, but I make sure to take each and every deduction I can!
I snuck out of the game early but, baring a miracle comeback, it looks like Tampa took it!
Rich

ElGordo

(01/26/2003; 20:34:15 MDT - Msg ID: 95741)

Hello Rich!

If you ever get a chance to visit Vancouver, I'll give you some tips on where to stay and places to visit. The conference was right next to the cruise terminal where I launched my Alaska cruise. BTW right next door there was a sex exposition. Don't ask,
its Vancouver.

There were some other things I remember but they were company specific, so I won't mention them. I got a chance to chat with some
company presidents, what fun.

Tom Calandra talked about an ETF for gold coming out soon.
That would spur interest in PMs.
He also talked a bit about mining companies with large hedges
and that these companies would have severe problems in his opinion.

I chatted with an executive of a silver company and asked about the deficit. He said it was real and had charts etc. BTW the 4th largest silver miner just had strike negotiations break down. Its a big miner in Mexico. He mentioned silver in nature occurs at a 1/20 ratio to gold and now the price ratio is way out of wack, I think its 1/75 now. If silver were to catch up it would really move.

He mentioned that in Japan it is already the law that silver has to be used for wood preserving. Silver is hard to predict and in all
fairness he mentioned that industrial demand had to pick up for silver to do well. In Japan by 2005 all lead has to be out of electronics solder and that means more silver in solder.

I think as gold moves higher it will pull silver along for a ride.
Lets hope-We got a good pop last friday!

Cheers

Cytek

(01/26/2003; 20:45:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95742)

U.S. - IRAQ INVASION LIKELY TO BEGIN WITH STATE of the UNION

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/012403_invasion.htmlJanuary 24, 2003, 1930 PST (FTW) - Serious international developments are indicating that the first stages of the U.S. invasion of Iraq will begin unilaterally no later than next Wednesday and most likely as the President delivers his State of the Union address to Congress on Tuesday night.

The Associated Press reported today, in a story little noticed by mainstream American press, that the Japanese government had today urged all Japanese citizens to leave Iraq as soon as possible. Japan has large numbers of its nationals working in Iraq in various trade and oil-related business ventures. According to a second report today on CNN Headline News the Japanese advisory was specific that all Japanese citizens should be out of the country by next Wednesday at the latest.

The Japanese alert was followed by a simultaneous advisory from the U.S. State Department issuing a worldwide alert to all Americans traveling overseas. According to another AP story, State Department officials tried to downplay the significance of the warning, "but officials were unable to say when the last such advisory had been issued." A worldwide alert for U.S. citizens is extremely rare and suggests that the administration is concerned about a global backlash against Americans traveling overseas. Cautionary advisories are normally isolated to specific countries or geographic regions.

The invasion of Iraq will most likely commence with a massive aerial campaign in which the U.N. and many military analysts have predicted widespread collateral damage with heavy civilian casualties. One recent UN estimate suggested that the total Iraqi casualty count for the entire operation could exceed 500,000.

Cytek - sorry if this was posted already but didn't notice it. Looks like we have two days to accumulate more physical. Then who knows what will happen.

ElGordo

(01/26/2003; 20:58:02 MDT - Msg ID: 95743)

South Korea down 3.5%

http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?uLink to asian markets

mikal

(01/26/2003; 21:03:15 MDT - Msg ID: 95744)

@Golden Bear

Thank you!
As they say: "Better safe than sorry."
But what the future holds for the internet, computers and local servers, etc. only time will tell. I won't rule out potential gov't emergency declarations or martial law and related restrictions, seizures and taxes.
-Best regards

ElGordo

(01/26/2003; 21:03:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95745)

Japan exports fall 7.3% in December

Tokyo, Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese exports fell in December for the first month in three, causing a larger-than- expected slump in the trade surplus and undermining a recovery from recession.

Exports fell 7.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, from November, and imports rose 1.2 percent. The trade surplus narrowed 37 percent to 657.3 billion yen ($5.6 billion), the Ministry of Finance said. Economists expected a 782.1 billion yen surplus.

Pizz

(01/26/2003; 21:05:14 MDT - Msg ID: 95746)

And more things to make you feel warm and fuzzy

http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/01/26/sprj.irq.nuclear/index.htmlNot only are they warning Americans and countries pulling people out of Iraq, we aren't ruling out the use of nukes.

Asia starting off bad, but I'm sure their calling out the market support boys early this am. Good luck.

Pizz

Malfleur

(01/26/2003; 21:07:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95747)

(1) Christian: Gold Credit Creation (2) Hipplebeck

Christian, belated thanks for the very clear explanation of gold credit creation.

Hipplebeck: i thought that you had agreed to keep your distasteful prejudices out of this forum

Clink!

(01/26/2003; 21:36:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95748)

Mixed signals

Well, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just won the Superbowl. Go, Bucs !! What message does this send an expatriot Brit living (and working) in Tampa Bay ?

1/ The mention by the commentators that the Bucs are the World Champions (of a game only played in the USA. Same with the "World" Series in baseball). And then Americans wonder why their arrogance is "unwelcome" elsewhere in the world.

2/ Gruden, their manager, has been in the job for less than a year. When handed the trophy, for the first time in the team's history, as not only the manager of the winning team but also the youngest manager ever of a winning team, (enough to swell anyone's head) gives thanks to Tony Dungy who held his job for the preceding four years , and really built the team. What a guy !

So there you have it. Individually, Americans are among the nicest people you could ever wish to meet. Collectively, you (ahem) leave something to be desired.

Malfleur

(01/26/2003; 21:38:19 MDT - Msg ID: 95749)

World War 2 - Where Did the Gold Go?

As a novice in this market, I have been reading widely for background. A question has occurred to me which I cannot answer. When Japan occupied the various territories in the Far East along its invasion route during the Second World War, it presumably seized all the gold held by the governments and banks in the same wy as it did when it entered the Forbidden City by the North Gatein 1900 and made off with the Ching Dynasty's gold reserves.

I cannot find any reference to the Japanese ever having to give this WW2 loot back. Could they be sitting on it to off-load it on a rainy day and what effect might the sudden arrival on the market of all this bullion have on today's price?

I haven't begun to think about the bullion plundered by the Nazis- but I have never read that they were ever held to account for it.

Clink!

(01/26/2003; 21:43:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95750)

@ 1340cc

I'm sorry for getting "personal", but my heart skipped a beat when I saw your handle. See, back in my youth, I built a kit car based around a Mini. In my case, the engine was a 1275cc Mini Cooper engine. To increase its power, it could be bored out to a larger capacity. The first overbore was 1298cc, the second 1312cc and the third (which took me several weeks, and several skinned knuckles, to accomplish) was 1340cc. The result was around 100hp(SAE) in a 1000lb car - excitement !! Is there any connection ?

OK, OT, I'll shut up.

Malfleur

(01/26/2003; 21:46:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95751)

270 +

Here in the Far East at 12.45, au just went through 270 on the HK market - heading north.

1340cc

(01/26/2003; 21:55:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95752)

Clink!

Well kinda. It's the size of the motor in my '96 HD Heritage Softtail Classic.
I sure would love to have a new (or vintage) Mini. Drove the one with the larger motor!!!!! They are something else. I have a price set on some of my gold investments and if it gets there I just might own one. You can't have too much gold & silver or too many Harleys or antique cars.
Go Gold & Silver

sector

(01/26/2003; 21:57:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95753)

@Clink! Congrats for choosing Tampa for your Work and the Bucs were AU some

Yours truly operates East of Town in the......Vally of Gold.

Valrico

Perhaps we could raise a few?

Ray Patten

(01/26/2003; 22:09:24 MDT - Msg ID: 95754)

Sir Malfleur...

Please give us a link to the Hong Kong Gold market. I have been looking for it for months.

Cytek

(01/26/2003; 22:13:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95755)

Food for thought

In 1971 Richard Nixon halted gold convertibility in response to a massive flight out of the US dollar. The confidence in the US dollar was shattered causing a tremendous increase in the price of precious metals.

At that time the price of
gold was $35/ounce
silver was $2/ounce
platinum was $103/ounce
By 1980 the price of gold increased 23 times to $800/ounce
silver increased 25 times to $50/ounce
platinum increased 9 times to $900/ounce
If that were to repeat today:
gold would increase to $6,325/ounce
silver would increase to $100/ounce
platinum would increase to $4,500/ounce

harold

(01/26/2003; 22:16:40 MDT - Msg ID: 95756)

War, Gold, & Oil

Until this weekend I was in the 'we won't go to war' camp. However, now that Jordan and Turkey are back in the offensive fold,I believe that barring Saddam's voluntary removal and/or some unexpected event, the U.S. will go to war against Iraq. The U.S. will take control of the oil fields and the revenue generated will go partially to defray the costs of the war, pay off Turkey, fund troops in the region, etc. There are others that share this same opinion. However, there are 2 elements to the 'deal' that have not been discussed that I believe are material and not circumstantial. (1)England sold most of their gold at the bottom of the market and (2) Blair has been our most staunch ally..unflinching to say the least. If Sinclair is correct in his latest, and gold will again be monetized, who's to say that part of the oil revenues won't go towards England to restock their gold reserves? The U.S. will have a say in world oil production and in which currency it is sold. I believe that the U.S. will continue to let the $ fall and that down the road it will be gold and oil revenues that will be there to resurrect it. Currently, I believe they don't care how far it falls because the FED has already telegraphed that they WILL inflate. I think the FED is braced for a period of pain and suffering to allow for the excesses to play out. This period will last until the next election is due. Ideally, oil prices will again be stable, and a $ backed by gold (not convertability) would set the stage for some type of economic recovery. If other currencies, backed by gold as well, are part of this world economic recovery plan then England will have to "get some". The current economics tell me that they will have to come up with the money first. If I was Blair, I'd be right in there with the U.S. also.

erayboy

(01/26/2003; 22:17:44 MDT - Msg ID: 95757)

95749 - Malfleur - WWII Gold

"Unsubstantiated rumor" leads me to believe that this Black Gold disappeared after being stored away in a Phillipines cave. A certain Colonel Marcos (later el Presidente) assisted in clandestine OSS (CIA) removal operations.

A train full of NAZI gold also disappeared on its way to Switzerland. I, for one, don't think it disappeared. It made it to the proper destination ... just was appropriated by "others".

There is "supposed to be" more Black Gold under the table than the total amount claimed to be in existence.

BTW, other Black Gold, Black Silver, and Black Diamonds probably exists, mostly as a result of unreported production.

Simply Me

(01/26/2003; 22:23:02 MDT - Msg ID: 95758)

@Clink!

Oh, come on...lighten' up. Like we don't know there's a world out there.

Hmmm. An interesting thought, though...instead of sending our military to Iraq or South Korea, the U.S. could just challenge them to a football game. Of course, the opposing team will be allowed as many men as it takes to fill each uniform.

(Did ya'll see the size of Raiders #73...WoW!!)

Former Tampa Bucs Fan/Resident
Now a Titans/Nashville Fan (next year, guys!)

Simply

canamami

(01/26/2003; 22:29:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95759)

China's central bank

Does anyone know when it will likely release its report concerning its gold reserves and forex reserves for January? I wonder if more gold has been purchased. I wonder if gold is soaking up some of China's excess US dollars.

Farfel

(01/26/2003; 22:39:08 MDT - Msg ID: 95760)

*********************** 413.50************************

We may be on the cusp of discovering the true identities of the big specs who are challenging the commercial players in the gold market. I suspect when this is revealed in the Big Media, it will ignite the gold market. My own suspicion is that they are deep pocket foreign players because US domestic specs face far too many "political difficulties" in challenging the Estabishment status quo. If a foreign spec player with several billion dollars of net worth is buying futures with the intention of demanding delivery of the physical, well, look out!

The other fuel about to ignite the gold market will be Barrick Gold. Having aggressively hedged its gold production beginning in 1996 (prior to the Bank of Belgium gold sale) from prices apparently ranging from 360 to 400, it is about to enter a "world of pain" as gold rises through those price levels. Whether the company holds spot deferred gold contracts or not, the reality is that it will be compelled to report substantive losses (under GAAP regs) as its hedges continue to fall underwater.

Barrick seems to have two choices facing it: enter the spot market and begin to acquire large quantities of gold in order to cover its short BEFORE the spot price really takes off or else acquire a major unhedged gold company (or two) in order to have immediate physical gold production available to cover its hedge.

As the gold price continues to rise in price, the days when one or two dollar increases seemed significant are about to end. On a percentage basis, the nominal one or two dollar increase will soon be replaced by the nominal five or six dollar increase (on a slow day) while heavier volume, bullish days will see double digit increases ($12-$18). Along the way, at some point, we will see a single-day, panic buy in the spot market of indeterminate size (anywhere from $150 to $500 would be my guess) with a limit up move in the futures market ($75). I cannot fathom what will be the precipitating event for such a mammoth rise but I feel quite certain it is coming, no longer a question of "if," but merely a
question of "when." The gold "basketball" has been held underwater for far too long via the shenanigans of the longstanding gold carry trade and when it slips away and springs up in all its forceful fury, it will astonish even the most optimistic goldbugs.

Best regards to all.

mikal

(01/26/2003; 23:12:40 MDT - Msg ID: 95761)

@Farfel

Good to see you posting and with familiar aplomb!

Malfleur

(01/26/2003; 23:16:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95762)

(1) Erayboy (2) Ray Patten

Erayboy. That's interesting. Is it possible that the present POG takes such possible amounts into account or is the existence of such huge quantities a factor in a possible substantial fall in the POG in accordance with the principle of supply and demand? Presumably there are "before" and "after' accounts in all those countries which were relieved of their gold reserves in WW@, so it ought to be possible what went missing. But presumably this is a contributing reason to why many CBs are very shy to release reliable figures/

Ray Patten. Sorry, in the excitement of the moment I abbreviated the markets shown as open on Kitco (Sydney, HK and NY Access) to HK. There is, as far as I am aware, no link to the HK Gold & Silver Society floor. Sorry again for that.

harold

(01/26/2003; 23:41:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95763)

Farfel-ABX

Farfel, I suggest, based on the price action of the stock, (sorry, I'm a technician) you are correct re ABX. It is simply incredible that the shareholders have continued to tolerate the company's recklessness. Their share price says it all. Can you say languish? In the face of the largest gold rally in years, a producer such as this has failed miserably. Something is sorely amiss and I'll bet it won't be too far off before we all find out just how deep they are under water. All insider action is sales...no purchases whatsoever.

kramrich

(01/26/2003; 23:42:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95764)

@ Cytek

I would imagine that the inspectors would leave Iraq before we have a "two minute warning".

Spartacus

(01/26/2003; 23:48:59 MDT - Msg ID: 95765)

GCC single currency 'need not be pegged to dollar'

http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=75328
The GCC single currency to be launched in 2010 will be pegged to only one currency - but it may not necessarily be the U.S. dollar, Sultan bin Nasser Al Suwaidi, UAE Central Bank governor said yesterday.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/26/2003; 23:55:44 MDT - Msg ID: 95766)

The tale of a currency: Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

falling purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

Marie Ballard Ext 106

We look forward to your inquiry.

Waverider

(01/26/2003; 23:57:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95767)

ElGordo, Rich

I was just at the conference for a few hours, (and actually ElGordo, I almost DID land up in the conference next door - Everything About Sex - it didn't take long to realize I was in the WRONG place!) Okay, here are a few other quick points Thom Calandra made - the average investor has less than 1% of their investments in commodaties, >50% have lost on investments the past few years, and almost 0% diversify outside of the US$. To exemplify public opinion about gold, he jokingly said that someone wrote to him saying that Gold is for pirates with one leg and half a brain. His response...Harhar...shiver me timbers! He sees SHARP swings in the PM markets, and PM stocks may be up 3000% 5 years from now. He also indicated that Andy Smith is a good friend of his, and is begining to warm up to Gold. Andy Smith's technical advisor has in view a much higher POG than $425.00. As ElGordo said, Thom also indicated some of the big hedgers - Barrick and Placer are at risk if Gold goes up rapidly, and said he sees the "absolute destruction of some of these big companies."

The Panel had a few more interesting tidbits - they indicated that there could be a squeeze in Feb. Comex Gold at the end of this week which could be explosive if buyers take delivery. Also, re: the performance of Gold shares - they indicated institutions are not buying due to previous big losses in the market, and people are afraid of everything at the moment. Less than 1% of the public own Gold stocks. People won't wake up to gold until there is a collapse in the DOW. Okay Rich, David Morgan indicated that it will take some type of default situation when someone takes delivery to move silver, and that will likely happen by the end of this year. He's speaking tomorrow but unfortunately I won't be able to attend. That's all I recall, happy to share, even though it's in pieces, and I'm not sure too much of this is new. Cheers,
Waverider

canamami

(01/27/2003; 00:01:04 MDT - Msg ID: 95768)

$370.90

eom

melda laure

(01/27/2003; 00:02:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95769)

Sector, Catastrophe theroy

Ah yes. An age since I read that book. The great cirya "dollar" is about to founder in rough seas. The shape of its hull has been modified, and is less stable than before. But (and this is key) few realize that the region of stability is not well marked... it is bifurcated, like a multistable vibrator. Furthermore, the load on board is not well tied down and as it shifts we are fast approaching a point where the ship can not be righted again REGARDLESS of the price of gold, oil or the euro/dollar exchange ratio. This is because the MOMENTUM of the system is too great for greenie's magic checkbook. Indeed we have already crossed that point.

Too big to fail has become too big to save.

Mr President, choose now which you will defend: you may defend the dollar or the american people or the US constitution, and with the grace of the gods you may be able to defend two of these, but all three you can not hope to defend sucessfully for much longer. One you must sacrifice.

The golden load has shifted, even as she lists the ship is already lost.

Ok, that's too depressing; everybody sing:
we all Mine in an elvish submarine!
An Elvish submarine!...

hic! Dear Gandy! I appear to have drunk too much wine.

Gandalf the White

(01/27/2003; 00:05:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95771)

ATTENTION Sir Canamami ---

canamami (01/27/03; 00:01:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 95768)
$370.90
===
SORRY Sir Canamami --- SOMEONE beat you to that Price !
Please try again !
<;-)

seagull

(01/27/2003; 00:14:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95772)

**** $366.70 ****

As the sabre-rattling by the US over Iraq proceeds predictably, the Europeans et al are predictably (?) rather quiet or negative towards the impending and seemingly inescapable war. Does this hint at a changing of the guard? A move in the wings to price oil in Euros? Will this be the next major event in the gold jigsaw?

Gandalf the White

(01/27/2003; 00:15:59 MDT - Msg ID: 95773)

ONWARD SPOT and SPIKE ! BITE 'em !!!

Looks as if the two are marching well tonight and have crossed the $370 barrier !
Should be an "interesting WEEK" !!!
<;-)

Gold Standard

(01/27/2003; 00:26:40 MDT - Msg ID: 95774)

******$381.4 ********

The NEXT big thing to happen to the gold market? Hmmmmm.....

Joe Sixpack getting on the train? Nah, that's probably a year away.

Mutuals getting on the train en masse? Nah, give it 9 months.

Silver eclisping gold ounce-for-ounce? Nah, that's scheduled for February, 2005.

The USA invading Iraq without UN sanction? Nah, NEVER going to happen.

I know! Sir Alan Greenspan will push and prod some stumble-bum from some obscure Central Bank that none of us have ever heard of, to provide a further policy/warning like poor old Bernanke was forced to do:-

"The Central Banks stand ready to print more dollars should the US dollar decline in value."

Got your Golden Parachute?

Belgian

(01/27/2003; 00:32:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95775)

Andy Smith ....the short(er) (Mitsui)

Mister Smith suggests that when the Washington Agreement expires in sept. 2004...The renewed agreement will lift the maximum Gold-sales-swaps-leases, from the present 400 tonnes per year, up to 800 tonnes per year,...yes a doubling !!!

Sorry Andy....there will, highly probable, *NOT*, be a second W.A, necessary.

melda laure

(01/27/2003; 00:33:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95776)

Food for thought, who moved my cheese? The wine's to cheap in the golden state!

The US economy is about 15 trillion, and 80% of this is in services. That leaves about 3 trillion in "real stuff". To supplement this, the country has a current account differential of half a trillion a year- much of which is "stuff".

The ratio is 1 in 6. As in one sixth of our livelyhood has to be imported. (not that 5% current account thingamagummy they told you about). I hope I'm drunk here. Hope the hobbits stocked the pantry full if not!

kramrich

(01/27/2003; 00:51:47 MDT - Msg ID: 95777)

Barrick.....

http://www.barrick.com/3_Financials/Gold and silver contracts outstanding at September 30, 2002
Maturity/Scheduled for delivery in 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007+ Total
Gold contracts
Spot deferred contracts (1)
Ounces (thousands) 750 2,800 1,650 1,550 1,550 8,600 16,900
Average price per ounce $ 365 $ 340 $ 345 $ 335 $ 338 $ 342 $ 342
Variable price gold sales and option
contracts
With "caps"(2)
Ounces (thousands) - 475 300 300 - 900 1,975
Average price per ounce at cap
expiry date - $ 343 $ 310 $ 317
- $ 369 $ 346
With "caps" and "floors"
Ounces (thousands) 100 150 - - - - 250
Cap price per ounce $ 297 $ 310 - - - - $ 305
Floor price per ounce $ 270 $ 280 - - - - $ 276
Total gold ounces (thousands) 850 3,425 1,950 1,850 1,550 9,500 19,125
Average price per ounce $ 357 $ 339 $ 340 $ 332 $ 338 $ 345 $ 342

Kramrich: The above came from Barricks site. This is from their 3rd quarter 2002 statement but it does give you an idea of just how far under water their hedge book must be. One line earlier in the statement really stood out to me.

"IMPACT OF CHANGE IN SPOT PRICE (from $274 to $324)" negative $883,000,000.

In a $45 move in the spot price of gold their mark to market value of their hedge book decreased by $883 million dollars. Their are some factors that soften that blow but that is a very large number even for Barrick. The fair value of their gold contracts went from plus $356 million on 12/31/2001 (POG $279) to negative $301 million on 9/30/2002 (POG $324). If I had to guess at where their book was now I would say it was -$500 million on 12/31/2002 and today it could be as high as -$750 million.

Fair value as at December 31, 2001 $ 356
Impact of $152 million realized gains in the period to date (152)
Impact of change in spot price (from $279 per ounce to $324 per ounce) (883)
Impact of contracts added (21)
Implied contango period to date 109
Impact of change in valuation inputs other than spot metal prices (e.g.
interest rates, lease rates, and volatility)
290
Fair value as at September 30, 2002 $ (301).

kramrich

(01/27/2003; 00:56:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95778)

Barrick.....

http://www.barrick.com/3_Financials/Sorry for the mess below. I tried to cut and paste some from their site but it came out a jumble. Here are just my remarks and a link to Barrick's site.

Kramrich: The above came from Barricks site. This is from their 3rd quarter 2002 statement but it does give you an idea of just how far under water their hedge book must be. One line earlier in the statement really stood out to me.

"IMPACT OF CHANGE IN SPOT PRICE (from $274 to $324)" negative $883,000,000.

In a $45 move in the spot price of gold their mark to market value of their hedge book decreased by $883 million dollars. Their are some factors that soften that blow but that is a very large number even for Barrick. The fair value of their gold contracts went from plus $356 million on 12/31/2001 (POG $279) to negative $301 million on 9/30/2002 (POG $324). If I had to guess at where their book was now I would say it was -$500 million on 12/31/2002 and today it could be as high as -$750 million.

melda laure

(01/27/2003; 00:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 95779)

Aure Entuluva!

371.10! Great Neptune! Save us! This is getting to be like Poe's "Ms. In a Bottle". It's much too scary. Oh, wait, I've got the chart upsidedown... Who let loose the Hound of Valinor? Good gracious, what will dear little Jonathan Hoenig say? Especially if the HUI tanks tomorrow. Gandalf, do you suppose he is part hobbit?

Canst thou say laurea malta ancalime? I knew you could!

ElGordo

(01/27/2003; 01:01:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95780)

TOCOM spooked, get 'em spike!

Reuters

TOCOM gold jumps, spooked by looming Iraq report

Monday January 27, 2:24 am ET

TOKYO, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures bolted towards six-year highs on Monday, spurred on by swirling talk of war ahead of a critical report on Iraq's weapons programmes.

Emboldened by spot gold's rally to six-year highs and pre-weekend gains on COMEX, Japanese investors piled into a market already dominated by long positions.
----
WOW over #373 right now

kramrich

(01/27/2003; 01:07:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95781)

(No Subject)

Feb. gold up $5.30 and the night is still young!!!

Caradoc

(01/27/2003; 01:33:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95782)

Up $5.30 "ain't nothing"

Buying some of those February contracts for an extra $5.30 could prove to be an excellent investment, especially if you were planning to take delivery of the underlying asset. All it would take to break even is a day or two of what we've seen every day on the average lately. A lead pipe cinch in my book. A few days of double-digit dollar increases would be even nicer, and there's a fair chance of that happening. And, of course, there's even some chance for three or four days of absolute panic buying.

Now, the important question: if I can see the writing on the wall, what are the odds that a dozen or more people who can actually afford to play at those dollar levels can figure out the same thing? I think the odds are pretty good. In which case, your ounces and mine should do nicely over the nearterm as the long-submerged volleyball/ basketball begins its rise toward the surface.

Caradoc

ElGordo

(01/27/2003; 01:40:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95783)

European markets tanking

http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?uFutures dropping

Farfel

(01/27/2003; 01:54:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95784)

*********************** 413.50************** ( A Corollary)

The gold market can best be compared to a private club in which a relatively small number of players determine
the course of events. The hallmark of this private club has been conspiracy -- and no better conspiracy deprived small gold investors during the late Nineties than the gold carry trade, a gold shorter's dream, aided and abetted by Western central banks' relentless public announcements of large gold sales PLUS the very public declarations by major gold miners (like Barrick and Anglogold) of superhedging aka massive gold shorting. Was it it mere coincidence that Barrick gold chose to short 75% of its future production immediately following the Bank of Belgium gold sale (1996) or did the well-connected company have forewarning with respect to the litany of central bank gold sales to follow over the next several years? If it smells like a skunk, it must be a skunk.

Although there is every indication that many Western central bank gold sales were no more than intra-bank exchanges (at lower prices), the strategy achieved its intended purpose and caused the gold price to crater in the prevous decade. The gold carry trade appeared to be nothing less than an Establishment-endorsed license to print free money for the major bullion banks on Wall Street and the senior superhedged gold producers. Utilizing the proceeds of the gold carry trade (plus various other commodity and currency carry trades), the bullion banks poured "free money" into the bond and stock markets, utilizing the carry trades as a
primary propellant to create verticality in the those respective markets. Simultaneously, Wall Street hedge fund raids upon various Second and Third World countries' currencies would provoke a mass flight to safety of foreign funds into US stocks and bonds.

Several years later, the downturn in US stock and bonds would prompt the Fed to increase money supply at a double digit, super-stimulative pace in order to protect those respective financial instruments....although the ironic consequence would be the fomentation of a superbubble in US real estate instead.

As the derivatives books of the bullion banks and the gold books of the superhedged miners turn negative (see JP Morgan's recently announced large loss as a harbinger of worse things to come), then one can be fairly sure that heads will roll, specifically the heads of those originators of the gold carry trade strategy that at one time seemed so immune from failure.

In my opinion, we are nearing a point where a "Gold-Throat" -- possibly the embittered former employee of a bullion bank -- will step forward and reveal the inner machinations of the gold carry trade...every single dirty detail and secret of what is an incontrovertible conspiracy designed to suppress and ultimately destroy gold as a viable investment alternative in the world of finance.

When such a revelation is made, then I believe that will serve as a propellant for a record, single day price increase in the spot gold market, one that simply will take the breath away of every gold investor on the planet.

As an infamous rock group once said:

"It's just a shot away, it's just a shot away....."

ElGordo

(01/27/2003; 01:58:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95785)

Asia metals info

Reuters
TOCOM gold open interest rises on Jan 27
Monday January 27, 3:27 am ET

TOKYO, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Following are the volume and open
interest for precious metals futures on the Tokyo Commodity
Exchange on Monday, in lots.
VOLUME OPEN INTEREST
(Mon) (Fri) (Mon) (Fri)
GOLD 228,728 106,878 419,106 413,168
SILVER 4,140 4,206 19,116 19,630
PLATINUM 49,768 97,170 231,551 232,178
PALLADIUM 186 387 4,175 4,219

Reuters
Shanghai closing gold prices
Monday January 27, 3:38 am ET

SHANGHAI, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Gold prices on the Shanghai Gold
Exchange climbed to another record close on Monday ahead of the
week-long Lunar New Year break in February, traders said.
Shanghai's gold prices have hit fresh highs for more than a
week as processing firms bought aggressively ahead of the
February 1-7 holiday, which usually sees a surge in demand for
gold jewellery and ornaments.
China's first Communist-era gold exchange opened on October
30, ending half a century of rigid control of domestic
gold prices.
Below are the closing prices published on its Web site
www.sge.com.cn.
Previous prices and volumes are in brackets.
Product Closing price (yuan/gm) Volume (kg)
99.95 pct gold 98.26 (97.72) 1,098 (802)
99.99 pct gold 98.10 (97.98) 137 (95)
($1=8.277 Yuan)

Reuters
Asia Metals-China desperate on copper as Codelco bites
Monday January 27, 3:52 am ET
By Nao Nakanishi

HONG KONG, Jan 27 (Reuters) - China is desperately looking for any copper available as it is short of the red metal ahead of the upcoming new year holidays following a cutback in exports by Chile's Codelco, the world's number one producer, traders said on Monday.

ElGordo

(01/27/2003; 02:03:24 MDT - Msg ID: 95786)

We have evidence?

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=578&u=/nm/20030127/ts_nm/iraq_powell_evidence_dc≺inter=1U.S. to Publish Iraq Weapons Evidence Soon-Report

24 minutes ago

MILAN (Reuters) - The United States plans to make public soon its evidence that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, Secretary of State Colin Powell (news - web sites) was quoted as saying on Monday.

"The United States possesses several pieces of information which come from the work of our intelligence that show Iraq maintains prohibited weapons," Powell told Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera in an interview.

"Once we have made sure it can be done safely, I think that in the next week or soon after we can make public a good part of this material," he told the newspaper.

Washington has not yet made public the evidence it says it has that Iraq has banned weapons programs. Corriere also quoted Powell as saying that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) would be able to use the weapons soon.

Gold Hill

(01/27/2003; 02:11:18 MDT - Msg ID: 95787)

OFF TOPIC?

"The harder you work, the luckier you get" Brad Johnson, QB Tampa Bay Bucks
I doubt that his statement is original but it does apply to all who have been watching and have been pro-active in the markets that we are in now.
I forget the name of the poster who signs off with "live small", but he's got it right.
Cheers,
Gold Hill

ElGordo

(01/27/2003; 02:16:04 MDT - Msg ID: 95788)

Dollar dropping suddenly

Dollar just went sub 99

Mr Gresham

(01/27/2003; 02:48:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95789)

Shiver me timbers!

Lady Waverider: I guess Calandra put 'em right on that one. Excuse me while I adjust my eyepatch.

Hey, Farfel -- good comments!

Yikes! We got ourselves a rocket here. Un-stoppa-BULL. what's gonna happen???

Small dogs with scraps in bellies...

Black Blade

(01/27/2003; 02:53:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95790)

Global Markets Tank

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian and Euro markets are sinking into the abyss and the US dollar is falling hard (sub 99). It looks like an absolutely ugly start to the week for the equities markets.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/27/2003; 02:59:04 MDT - Msg ID: 95791)

Market Index Futures Lower

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
US market index futures are lower with a negative start on Wall Street likely, the US dollar is falling off a cliff, Gold is surging, oil and gas are higher, and the grains are all solidly higher.

- Black Blade

aussie

(01/27/2003; 02:59:55 MDT - Msg ID: 95792)

Couldn't believe my eyes

Wow! Could hardly believe it when I locked in to the chanel this afternoon, - $373. It is Australia Day over here and we have a National Holiday, - consequently we have been away for the past three days on an Island called Rottnest off the W.A. coast, where the reception on TVs is pretty dreadful so you don't bother turning it on. I had a feeling the price was set to go last Thursday and managed to get some more - cheers to you all.

Aristotle

(01/27/2003; 03:06:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95793)

By golly, you're right, Belgian! # 95775

I'd always counted on a renewal of the Agreement, but the way things are going, in 20 months it might not be necessary. If a goodly share of Gold's due *revaluation* occurs within this interim period, the value of Gold in the role of Wealth Reserve Property will be self-evident to everybody and the European central banks won't have to employ any more clever hand-tying tricks to impress upon the world the concepts for the proper use of Gold reserves among private, commercial, and official parties alike.

People will know it when they see it. If we're looking at a 20-month timeline I guess a lot of folks are in for a helluva wake-up call in the meaning of value on hand.

Just in time, too. There won't be anyone left wondering how on Earth the Gold-rich governments of the west will ever be able to face the fiscal burdens of the social/medical aid programs that their aging wave of baby boomers will vote into being. As if arriving magically just in the nick of time, a little bit of Gold will go a long way in service value if/when it becomes fiscally necessary for additional public sector reallocations of these vital reserves to meet public demands for social handouts -- even when gov't credit lines are strained beyond credibility.

There's nothing quite like a soaring price to help the masses understand this healthy new euro paradigm built on a proper concept of real savings. No need for an attitude/behavior-adjusting Agreement Part II if this all kicks in during the intervening 20 months.

So... twenty months, huh? Sounds about right. As Jackie Gleason's Ralph Kramden might say, "To the moon, Alice!"

Gold. Time is running out to get you some seating on the rocket ride of a lifetime. --- Aristotle

aussie

(01/27/2003; 03:19:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95794)

No title

I don't know how correct this is but perhaps some Aussies out there may know, but whilst I was at the Mint I had a rather young inexperienced teller say that it is better to buy 5oz and 10oz bullion bars than buying the 20oz as the authorities don't check on anything under the 20ozs. The young lady was quickly set upon by an older person who tried to shut her up and cover-up what she said. Anyway I know this wouldn't be helpful for companies and retirement funds purchasing gold, as our books are audited, but for personal bits and pieces it may be quite a good lurk if it is true. I guess a bit more research into the matter is needed.

Trojan

(01/27/2003; 03:44:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95795)

Jay Taylor Sees Deflation As Real Possibility.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/taylor012703.htmlSnippet

Taylor On US Markets & Gold

Financial Markets

The Deflation Inflation debate continues. If you choose believe the establishment, those same folks who told you there was a new paradigm and that the Dow was destined in few short years to reach 30,000 on its way to 100,000 go right ahead. Those folks, led by the Federal Reserve officials have said that the Fed can and will one way or another inflate the U.S. debt burden away. For reasons I talk about almost every week, I'm not buying the notion that the Fed is this powerful institution that can defy all the laws of economics. I'm not buying the idea that having lived way beyond its means now for the past several decades that the most massive debt burden in the history of the universe can simply be inflated away by a pump priming Federal Reserve that monetizes anything and everything that exists on the face of the earth.

James Sinclair has come down on the side of those who believe the Fed can always avoid deflation by printing money. If they literally print without corresponding entries on our fractional reserve banking system, I am inclined to agree. In other words, if the Fed or some government agency literally prints $100 dollar bills and then distributes them by the truck load to Americans door to door, but makes no corresponding debt entry on the books of our banking system, we could inflate, just as surely as if the Mafia did the same thing in mass. But this would be a last gasp Weimar Republic type of throw in the towel tactic.

I don't think the Fed believes it will have to resort to such extreme tactics to inflate the U.S. economy. But as I look at history, I think it is telling us there is simply that we have now passed the "threshold of debt lethality." In other words, the only thing that can cure the existing ills of mal investment (caused by excessive creation of money and credit) and the debt that has been created in the process of "printing" this enormous amount of money can only be cured by time and a hands off policy of the government. The markets must be returned to equilibrium. Trouble is that is a very painful process and no politician can be seen not to do something to fix the problem. So the Fed makes promises that they can inflate our debt burden away.

Part of the difference of opinion between those who think the Fed can revive the economy and those of us who do not think so is that one of interpretation of history. James Sinclair says that the gold clause that was in place back in the 1930's kept the Fed from increasing the money supply as required. Now that there is not gold clause in place, the Fed can print endless amounts of money so that they will this time be able to reflate. Trouble is, according to Murry Rothbard's "The Great Depression," the gold clause of the 1930's did not in the least hamper the expansion of money and credit during the 1930's. The Fed did in fact pump money into the system such that interest rates were drastically lower during 1930.
But that remedy was ineffective not because of the gold clause but rather because banks would not lend and businesses would not borrow. Britain going off the gold standard in 1931 also contributed to the problem because this led to a lack of confidence in the U.S. dollar which in turn meant that folks began to withdraw their money from the banks, causing a run on the banking system. But the basic problem was that the bubble economy had lead to structural problems which in turn made it impossible for participants in the economy to invest in capital equipment and labor which in turn meant the Fed was powerless to expand the money supply and inflate the U.S. out of the depression. I believe this is very nearly what is happening in the U.S. and throughout the world in 2003 and that as a result, the Fed will not be able to inflate us out of the deflationary depression which in my view and in the view of Ian Gordon as well, is in the very early stages.

This past week, Dr. Stephen Roach, Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley also voiced some skepticism about the ability of the Fed to inflate the U.S. economy. And then, even if they are successful, they will only be serving to create and even bigger problem in the future. Here is a portion of Dr. Roach's essay published on January 21, 2003.

Trojan: Very interesting article just out by Jay Taylor. There are very serious things going on right now. The Dollar is below 99. Gold is flying. I have been listening to CNBC the last hour or so. The FTSE has broken All support. It has been down 11 days in a row now. The other markets in Europe also dropping.

The FEED meets on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. What will Mr Inflater Do ? Cut rates another 1/2 point ? It is really going to be a fascinating week. Are we witnessing History In The Making ?�

Aristotle

(01/27/2003; 03:51:56 MDT - Msg ID: 95796)

aussie, a question about your mint's "authorities"

Do you happen to know what this means? What exactly is entailed when a 20+ ounce order is "checked on" as you put it? Just curious. Thanks in advance.

Gold. Get you some. Better than paper as far as the eye can see. --- Aristotle

Black Blade

(01/27/2003; 04:02:23 MDT - Msg ID: 95797)

Gold shorts sweating bullets

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256CBB00379193?OpenDocument
Snippit:

Could get ugly for shorts�

"Although a lot of the bad news is already in the price, we have to look at the how the US reacts to the weapons report to get some direction. If we go through $377, then shorts are going to start sweating and it could get ugly," said the trader. On Comex, the speculative long position continued to grow, indicating a consensus bet on a rising price; as of Friday the longs had racked up a position of 9.81 million ounces, while the shorts � who are backing a fall in the price - were at 2.89 million ounces.

Black Blade: Ah, and it just breaks me up inside too. ;-)

Gondolin

(01/27/2003; 04:10:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95798)

***$386.2***

Another lurker and daily reader of probably THE most informative and useful website, one of which unfortunately more people are not aware. If only the masses out there could also see the light through the morass of disinformation thrown at them by the media. And I think the most important development for gold this year will be the eventual realisation, albeit too late, that what people are being fed by their so called representative Governments and their pet media, is not for the people, but for those at the top of the pile to continue feathering their nests.This realisation will lead many to relocate their trust into real wealth, not the paper that they have been conned to throw their savings away on. Supply and demand will maintain gold back up there where it should be. Thanks to all for their daily input.

Knallgold

(01/27/2003; 04:25:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95799)

Farfel

"It's just a shot away, it's just a shot away....."--that must be The Sisters of Mercy,okay,none knows this Gothic band here.

They have Another interesting line:
"I don't exist,
when you don't see me"

Now what has this to do with Gold and the current state of economic affairs? (rhetoric)

One from Emeralde Fear:

"FEEAARRR,
the smell of a million lies,
the real goes AWRY,awry etc"

-you should hear the music,very melancholic'sinister, and despite its aggressivness caring and sensible.The world can be depressing sometimes and then I hear this kind of music.

Black Blade

(01/27/2003; 04:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95800)

The Great Bear Market In Gold Lasted So Long That Only The Old And Bold Remember The Last Bull Market.

http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2003/Jan-2003/bearsandbullsl270103.htm
Snippit:

"With age comes Wisdom", or so one hopes. And with wisdom comes the realisation that things are never quite as they seem to be and the best way to analyse the future lies in a study of the past. This may appear as a bunch of truisms, but apply them to gold - its past and its possible future- and a few things fall into place. Why, for instance, do so many commentators glibly attribute the present revival of the gold price to the possibility of war in Iraq?

Black Blade: For most pf today's alleged Gold "analysts" we are in uncharted waters. They still "don't get it". Gold is moving higher partly because of Iraq, but mostly due to the crashing US dollar and crumbling equities markets. "It's the economy stupid" as was said a few years ago. Iraq is a minor side show event in the long run as Gold is in a secular bull market.

aussie

(01/27/2003; 04:47:32 MDT - Msg ID: 95801)

(No Subject)

Aristotle AnswerHi Aristotle, - haven't got a clue what 'checked on' means but I presume they mean that any trades in the 20ozs is reported to 'who knows where'. The young lady I was dealing with obviously put her foot in it, hence the hurried response of her more senior person. Are you an Aussie? - hope you aren't a tax agent or anything who is following this link, - or I get kicked offf this channel for giving ?????? heresay information. The mint sells in 5, 10 20 50 ozs etc unless you buy unallocated. Cheers look forward to your reply.

Belgian

(01/27/2003; 04:48:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95802)

@ Ari

It was the Saudi Minister of oil who inspired me, this morning, with his rather cryptic answers. As if he was trying "not" to say...attack us and....! Yes, you know what he probably ment, don't you Ari !

Oh, BTW...goldmines are declining in paper-worth, overhere on relative high volume ??? Whoehoee.

Golden Bear

(01/27/2003; 05:02:15 MDT - Msg ID: 95803)

aussie (msg#: 95794, msg#: 95801)

Hi aussie,

the reporting requirement is that any transaction of A$10000 or greater is reported to the authorities(tax office?). Since a 20oz bar would cost approximately A$12000, the transaction would be reported, whereas a purchase of a 5 or 10oz bar would not be reported. Multiples of the 1,2,5, or 10oz bars going over A$10000 would also obviously be reported.

Hope this helps...

Cheers.

Aristotle

(01/27/2003; 05:08:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95804)

Trojan and Taylor -- risks of *inevitable deflation* are overstated

Taylor's argument sounds good as presented, but unfortunately he doesn't consider the full arsenal of deflation fighting weapons at the Fed/Treasury's disposal.

While Taylor makes a good point about debt and money. What I mean is that a debt entry (often a Treasury liability in the form of a bond) which generally stands behind a new issue of dollars by the Fed tends to lead to contraction of the money supply. This naturally happens sooner or later according to the business cycle, much later if it is forestalled by the political will of the government to act as the economy's borrower of last resort in conjunction with the Fed acting as lender of last resort. This kind of monetary forced-feeding opens the door to inflation at its malinvested worst.

Taylor builds his case around the debt liability, saying that the deflation will arrive in the end.

Well, for starters, is that deflationary "inevitability" very much comfort to anyone who lived to see it if it arrives after an intervening government-driven rampant inflation destroyed the purchasing power of their money and wiped out the value of their papery bank accounts?

More importantly, it need never come at all. The Treasury/Fed could conceivably draw upon a weapon that short-circuits this tendency toward monetary contraction. The secret weapon is in the Treasury's Gold reserves. Every ounce of these 8,140 tonnes is currently monetized at a rate of $42.22 per each. That gives our nation a monetary base of $11.05 billion that doesn't have a contractionary tending liability standing behind it. If our government were ready, willing, and able to rejigger the structure of our monetary order, by using market value in the face of a soaring Gold price the Treasury/Fed could in fact utilize these Extraordinary Assets to stand behind an ever larger monetary base that had no reason to contract.

You can be sure, come hell or high water, the government has a will to not let the interconnected framework of society buckle due to cascading loan defaults and collapse of our banking system from something as petty as (preventable!!) deflation and natural business-cycle contractions of our money supply.

Behold! The power of rising Gold! Somebody call Taylor and let him know he can always get a fresh glimpse of the future right here at the USAGOLD forum!! [The preceding shameless commercial is Randy's overdue payback for kindly sharing this insight with a collection of others in a dim corner somewhere off the main stage.]

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Belgian

(01/27/2003; 05:10:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95805)

@ Ari

1976 : The Jamaica Accords : The accords formally recognized that GOLD was demonetized as a RESERVE ASSET !
A non-currency, REAL WEALTH...RESERVE ASSET !!!
Gold would NOT longer "back" the currencies as it did in the old gold-exchange system.

The gold-market of the past 20 years was "ENGINEERED" as to make the supply of Gold, possible.

Plaza Accords ('85) and Louvre Accords ('87) were all efforts to stall and stretch out any crisis of the dollar.

Maastricht Treaty ('91)(EMU) closely followed the 1972 Smithsonian Agreements, declaring the dollar / Gold break, an official act by the US.

Eventually, even a $30 oil will disrupt world dollar debt to a point where the dollar exchange rate collapses (FOA-1999) !

etc...etc...

Aussi, can one still swim with the seadogs at Rottnest ?

aussie

(01/27/2003; 05:13:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95806)

Thanks Golden Bear

Hi Golden Bear, thank you for that. I haven't seen you on the channel for a long time - hope you had a great Australia Day celebration. Don't know about the east coast, but we had a large fireworks display over here, (not meaning the tragic fires that have been happening over here and I knollw Vic. has been badly hit as well, so terribly sad). The Lottery Commission and 92.? something or other FM, put on fireworks where everyone in the metropolitan turns out to watch. We were wondering if they do the same on the East Coast now, been many years since we lived there. We were watching them from an Island off Perth 12 kms away. Cheers.

Golden Bear

(01/27/2003; 05:21:55 MDT - Msg ID: 95807)

aussie (msg#: 95806)

Had a nice day with the mrs down at the beach... as for what the celebrations were on the east coast, I have no idea. I tend to avoid the garbage on free to air tv preferring to get my news from foxtel and the internet. Been quite busy lately and have only had time to read the forum mostly with the occasional post.

Hope you enjoyed Rottnest as much as we enjoyed the sunshine coast!

Time for some shuteye, work tomorrow...

Cheers.

aussie

(01/27/2003; 05:29:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95808)

Mind Game

Glad you had a good day Golden Bear, - my one big question is if this is all a 'Mind Game' between Bush/Blair/Howard and of course Hussein, - in the hope that Hussein will be knocked off his throne - I am wondering what is going to happen to the price of gold if war does not eventuate. Cheers.

Hipplebeck

(01/27/2003; 05:46:02 MDT - Msg ID: 95809)

Malfleur (01/26/03; 21:38:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 95749)

World War 2 - Where Did the Gold Go?

To the victor go the spoils

aussie

(01/27/2003; 05:48:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95810)

Belgion

Sure Belgion,- have you ever done the swim. I can tell you it would be very rough in the afternoon once the winds come in. Cheers

Belgian

(01/27/2003; 05:54:14 MDT - Msg ID: 95811)

One more word on the W.A.

Now that the dollar-block seems to have understood NOT to further discredit the euro-currency...the reasons for a WA-bis seem remote.
A second WA would mean that the BIS/ECB will use its unneeded reserve-dollars to BYPASS the paper markets and massively buy REAL PHYSICAL GOLD and blow up the entire paper-gold arena.

Future Gold should be used as a LEGAL TENDER for the settlement of all debts, public and private. But not without having changed International law such that no form of debt can ***force*** its payment in Gold !!!

In the future, International law must declare all large gold-reserves to be "public utilities" in the counbtries, they reside.

Exporters (China & al) with trade surplusses, should store these labor-fruits, in Physical Gold Reserves, to be traded in a Physical only market wich will then have become a one way up-value street.

Hipplebeck

(01/27/2003; 05:54:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95812)

Aristotle

Just to help you keep your values on track,
It is not
"Behold! The power of rising Gold!"

It is
Behold! the fall of the dollar.

Gold remains the constant, and always has.
It is only mans misguided perception of value and money that confuses them.

Hipplebeck

(01/27/2003; 05:58:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95813)

Belgian (1/27/03; 05:54:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 95811)

you wrote;
Future Gold should be used as a LEGAL TENDER for the settlement of all debts, public and private.

You are now beginning to understand that gold is money.
Keep up the good work!

Caradoc

(01/27/2003; 06:16:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95814)

"A plan in place?" (and other questions)

If you and I were The Powers That Be (TPTB) and had a plan in place to let gold go higher, wouldn't we and our families benefit from having the early stages of the increase masked by some likely excuse? Wouldn't we already be in the position of largely controlling what comes out of the mouths of the talking heads on television? And wouldn't a pending war in the Middle East be a dandy excuse to have sold to the listening public? No point in our letting the hoi polloi in on returns measured in orders of magnitude, is there?

If you're with me so far, the remaining questions are "How high will gold go?" and "Then what?"

Depending on what various writers meant by the "proper" value of gold (i.e.; how badly do they think it was suppressed and for how long), there are various analyses out there addressing numbers from a low of $850 to over $6,000 per ounce. For what it's worth, my target for the "proper" valuation of gold is $3,640, a level where one-ounce coins denominated as fifty "dollars" would have over $36 of backing (close to the historic $35 per ounce) if paired with a 100-to-1 devaluation of old dollars to new dollars and could be paired with paper dollars redeemable at 50 per one-ounce coin without prompting a run on the bank. Maybe there was some logic in why TPTB decided that the Eagles minted in recent years would say "FIFTY DOLLARS" along with "IN GOD WE TRUST." Note that I'm not predicting a return to "honest money," just a known and tolerable amount of cheating by TPTB. This valuation would also allow the return of the five-cent lunch even if it did mean five bucks in today's currency.

Once gold reaches its proper level, what next? One thing has to be a new currency. Why? Because once gold is over $3,000 old dollars, people holding specie will hesitate to exchange an ounce of it for even four thousand of the old, now-discredited dollars. Another given is that, after however many decades of being known within their families as the "crazy uncle who keeps buying gold coins even though they don't pay any interest," a certain number of us will bore everybody we know by chanting "I was right, I was right, I was right." A day or two of self congratulation may well be in order, but as an exercise in self discipline we should try to avoid gloating.

Two thoughts on the negative side....
(1) Before we get to the stage of character development by not gloating, there's some probability that we'll go through a period of turmoil/disorder during the early stages of which your gold coin won't buy a case of Dinty Moore beef stew or a box of .22 longs. Just remember that you can't eat it and you can't drink it. Be prepared.
(2) Once the dust settles and it turns out that you were right, you will then have to decide what to do with your wealth. Honest interest rates will approximate 2% and (surprise, surprise) those gold coins will retain their new value but they still won't be paying any interest. To do what's best for your descendants, you'll have to decide what to invest in and -- except for a few coins for a personal emergency -- it won't be gold.

Hipplebeck

(01/27/2003; 06:32:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95815)

The clash of civilzations

Islamic banking>waroil producer>wardome of the rock>warIslamic atomic bomb>wargold money>war
Economic power is shifting east.
Is the Iraq war the match that fires the conflagration?

Aristotle

(01/27/2003; 06:34:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95816)

Hi Belgian, thanks for your comments

I wonder if I blundered my way through my presentation because I didn't mean to imply a direct abandonment of the IMF Second Articles of Agreement.

Most certainly I didn't mean to convey that any return to fixed convertibility was intended. (And in case Jim Sinclair is looking in, I don't mean any kind of Gold cover clause, either.)

The element I was ultimately driving at was the nature of the Fed's book, balancing its issue of dollars (liabilities) against its sum total of assets which includes a helluva lot of government bonds and yet could *potentially* include these additional Reserve Assets in the form of *revitalized Gold Certificates* which could be more attuned to market values than at the present (assuming Congress paves the way for this, of course!)

In another way of tackling the problem, there could be follow-up operations similar to the IMF's own off-market Gold scheme to draw what would seem to be liability-free dollars out of the market value of Gold Reserves. You may recall this was done, as announced, on behalf of IMF contributions to the HIPC program for several months beginning December 1999.

Did that come out more intelligible this time? The key point being that in the age of fiat currencies, there's no practical limit to the inflation that a committed government can wreak upon its economy if it deems it to be the preferable option to deflation. Obviously, the goal is to avoid either one, but sometimes there's just no other way out of a hole and they'll devise and use clever tools to assist in the ascent. Like FOA said long ago, why fuss with pushing a string when you can throw the whole ball? Right?

Gold. etc, etc... --- Ari

canamami

(01/27/2003; 06:47:23 MDT - Msg ID: 95817)

Gandalf - sorry :-)

I was just posting the then current gold price whilst in a state of excitement; I wasn't entering the contest (at least yet). Sorry.

Aristotle

(01/27/2003; 07:02:09 MDT - Msg ID: 95818)

Hipplebeck, your #95812 ideas on constant valuation are off kilter

Along with its relative abundance, an item's uses -- as they change through time -- dictates its shifting value relative to all other things (and populations) through time.

Aragorn once pointed out in a good example how platinum was previously tossed aside as worthless pesky greyish pebbles whenever they were turned up by our ancestors as they were panning for Gold in Columbia or somewhere. Why? Because they didn't at the time have any *use* for them.

And the lesson? Boy how times, usage, and *values* can change!

Nothing's constant. With man always on the move, how could ANYthing be? Now thanks to unfolding corrections in the Gold market paradigm, Gold is set for a major upward move in relative value. But that's just my perspective. If you wannna put yourself in a Gold-centric reference plane and think that EVERYTHING ELSE on Earth is losing value, that's between you and your (market)maker. So good luck with that.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

canamami

(01/27/2003; 07:22:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95819)

Quick thoughts: If I were China.....

and if I wanted to unseat the US$, I would put my US$ into gold (or at least a good portion of the US$ reserves into gold). Why? Because China is too unstable for the yuan to be the de facto world currency. Further, there are economic and political downsides to buying into the Euro and/or yen too heavily. However, gold is on its face neutral and has a pedigree as the world currency. So I would shift quite a few US$ into gold. As gold flies, I would then have built up large reserves of the new/old (re)emerging world currency, while also having unseated the US$.

Black Blade

(01/27/2003; 07:26:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95820)

The Reinforcements?

Lots of bank fearful selling now with Barclay's Capital leading the charge. Also, market index futures rebounding off lows with huge block trades and dollar rising from lows. Looks like an all out "prop up" job from here. Even oil is lower. This is quite bizarre if not coordinated. Looks like a lot of "entertainment" in store if the Lemmings jump on board for another shearing.

- Black Blade

a nation of one

(01/27/2003; 07:29:06 MDT - Msg ID: 95821)

what else

Looks like gold is the only strong thing.

a nation of one

(01/27/2003; 07:40:32 MDT - Msg ID: 95822)

blue charts January 27, 2003

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/
A falling dollar is all that is needed for gold to go higher.

Truthcaster

(01/27/2003; 07:45:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95823)

Dollar

Wow who put the rocket under the dollar?
it's really moving. Maybe someone knows
what the UN is going to say hmmm. Sounds like
GW is going to give the UN two more weeks
to a month before the war. We might see the
dow up by the end of this day.

Truthcaster

(01/27/2003; 08:01:18 MDT - Msg ID: 95824)

99.7

INO is showing that the dollar is now at 99.7
and still rising some. I really have a hard time
thinking that there would be that much interest
in the dollar today before the UN And Bush's Speech
tomorrow And after the other markets got smashed
around the world last night. Well today should be
fun. ;o)

Clint H

(01/27/2003; 08:46:56 MDT - Msg ID: 95825)

Guess

****$399.4******
The price will likely try to break thru the $400 mark. There will be a desperate attempt to keep it below $400 just as they tried to keep the price below $300.
This is fun!!

J-Bullion

(01/27/2003; 08:54:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95826)

US Dollar

I think the main reason the Dollar is going up, is that the Japanese decided to come out and bash their currency today.

Boxman

(01/27/2003; 09:02:47 MDT - Msg ID: 95827)

India Warns Pakistan That It Will Be "erased From World Map" if It Uses Nukes Against India

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAO4R0JGBD.htmlMore fuel for the fire. Just how much of this type of news can the markets handle?

Snip:

NEW DELHI, India (AP) - India's defense minister warned that Pakistan will be "erased from the world map" if it uses nuclear weapons against India, as the two sides exchanged mortar fire along their frontier Monday.
Pakistan responded by calling the comments by Defense Minister George Fernandes "typical Indian irresponsibility."

Pizz

(01/27/2003; 09:16:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95828)

PM Shorts

Watching the tape a bit this morning.

I'm seeing tape action in PM stocks that I haven't seen in a long while.

The shorts are throwing in some good size blocks at the ask price trying to force and intimidate the market down.

Then market buy orders come in in volume and the blocks at ask are pulled. This smacks of desperation. wouyld have to think this type of action is also going on in the futures.

Anyone else who watches closely see the same thing?

Time sure appears running out for cheap gold. . .

Pizz

goldenpeace

(01/27/2003; 09:23:19 MDT - Msg ID: 95829)

Contest Guess....********$376.8*************

With a very firm physical gold market in Asia as a sign and with the $ continuing its extension slide to the downside making large holders more nervous by the day, asset holders everywhere continue to steadily diversify their holdings away from all currencies, realizing that "paper" everywhere is not what it once was......this ahead of a worldwide realignment of paper values and real goods values later this year. The event, then:a key change in perceptions.
Bowing
goldenpeace

canamami

(01/27/2003; 09:23:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95830)

But if the world starts going nuclear and chemical....

what good will gold do for anyone? Gold doesn't offer much insurance against the ULTIMATE worse case scenarios. (O.T.: I wonder if the new red heifer has sprung any imperfect hairs yet :-) ).

ElGordo

(01/27/2003; 09:25:08 MDT - Msg ID: 95831)

Gold looks like it has formed a huge cup and handle

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[m,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GCheck the graph at stockcharts.com
The period of several months where it was
trading between 300 and 330 looks like athe handle.
When it broke out above 330 it appears to have completed
the formation. It could go much much higher from here.
Any technical analysts out there have any opinions?

ElGordo

(01/27/2003; 09:36:14 MDT - Msg ID: 95832)

Blix says Iraq still not accepting disarmament

Iraq Still Not Accepting Disarmament, Blix Says
18 minutes ago

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix said Monday that Iraq had cooperated in opening sites for inspection but had fallen short in filling in the gaps in last month's declaration of its weapons programs.

"Iraq appears not to have come to genuine acceptance, not even today, of the disarmament that was demanded of it," Blix told the U.N. Security Council in a keenly awaited update on the inspectors' work.

While Baghdad had provided inspectors with access to the sites they wanted to visit, it had failed to resolve major outstanding questions about its arms programs, put conditions on guaranteeing the safety of overflights by U-2 spy planes and failed to account for supplies of anthrax it said it had made and later destroyed.

"It might still exist," he said, referring to suspected stocks of anthrax.

Iraq had also failed to account for 6,500 chemical warfare bombs mentioned in a document turned over to inspectors last month, he said.

sector

(01/27/2003; 09:40:59 MDT - Msg ID: 95833)

@ J-Bullion You are Correct that the dollar spiked as a result...

...of Yen selling [For dollars] and THAT is good for goldThe really big problem is the Japanese elders [The 60s and 70s group].

In the aggregate they hold $600 Billion in yen [Not real estate] and are fed up with LDP corruption, yen devaluation, legalized lowering of their insurance annuities and zip interest rates. Last year they went for the gold about this time.

They haven't forgotten that gold is a shield against craven, hypocritical, politicians and if they move only 10% of their $600 Billion savings to gold, it will vacuum the cartel's remaining gold holdings.

Just another box canyon for the squirming Fed and its G-10 mopes.
++++++++++++++++++++

@ Pizz Yes the shares are acting strange today. Perhaps this week will see the shorts give [As they must] up as the dollar keeps falling.

The next move up may be the big end-of-year, discount-gold-price-move.

A 60% plus move for the shares. HMY, MDG AEM in the mid twenties. KGC $3.25. It may be the last time to grab a good chunk of quick profit for a while.

The share shorts cling to the failed notion that COMEX commercial shorts are somehow "Connected" to the true future gold price and because they are short they must have the truth.

This reasoning will get them [The share shorting coat-tailers] killed because the coms have a free pass with their shorts just as Mitsui, Sumitomo have free passes [From the BOJ] over on the TOCOM with their periennial short positions. They have none of their funds at risk so they take shorts for free.

The spec shorts will get killed.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/27/2003; 09:45:20 MDT - Msg ID: 95835)

International clients: Please take note of our new toll free Int'l phone numbers

http://www.usagold.com/phone.htmlImplemented to help us serve you better.

Give them a spin and let us help you with your next gold order.

We are pleased to pass along what our European clientele have been telling us -- that our pricing is superior to most of their banks and brokerage firms. Further, we support and encourage delivery of the gold while our competitors primarily promote certificate programs. With USAGOLD - Centennial you'll get a good price AND GET what you pay for!

From New Zealand to the Netherlands, from Australia to Austria, from the British Isles to the Great White North, we offer the service you want and the professionalism you need.

Trojan

(01/27/2003; 09:48:24 MDT - Msg ID: 95836)

7900 Here We Come AND Bush And Blair Problem

The Dow is only 7 Points away from 7999. Well now.

Meanwhile back at the Ranch. The UN hears from Blix and Eberade. After listening to the gentlemen speak and explain (OOPS Dow at 7993 :-) ) It is apparent that the UN inspectors want more time and are gearing up to expand their facilities.

The US and British have just spoken and they SEE things differently. There will now be MUCH hot debate behind closed doors. Stay Tuned. Dow down 140 Points. Much Conflict and uncertainty ahead.

What will Bush say tomorrow ? What will Blair do ?

Interesting times for Gold. What a ride.

Skydog

(01/27/2003; 09:54:56 MDT - Msg ID: 95837)

ElGordo your msg#: 95831...Cup and Handle

Sinclair has written of this "Golden Teacup" many times in the last few months.

Here is a snip from his December 10th commentary:

I still firmly feel that we are very close (tomorrow, as few days maybe) to a breakout of the handle of the three/four year teacup and a technical explosion to high gold prices.

Skydog

Gondolin

(01/27/2003; 10:03:02 MDT - Msg ID: 95838)

***$386.0***

Lets try that again, first guess taken.

davefinger

(01/27/2003; 10:05:43 MDT - Msg ID: 95839)

bold tag

MK, it appears an errant bold tag isn't getting closed in your 'What you need to know...' message and the entire rest of the page goes bold too. I try not to pick nits too much, but it makes for really hard reading...

Which also leads me to ask a question that has been burning in my brain as I try to follow lines of conversation in what is, by late afternoon these days, one HUGE page of messages. Has there been any consideration of possibly using a threaded forum? It would makes things MUCH better here IMHO. Anyway, just a couple thoughts.

TownCrier

(01/27/2003; 10:09:15 MDT - Msg ID: 95840)

Fed holds to overnight repos in open market operations, adds $6.75 billion to banking system today

If nothing else, these one-day terms keep the outstanding positions nice and tidy in the event that the FOMC decides to lower rates following the Tues/Wed meeting this week.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/27/2003; 10:15:14 MDT - Msg ID: 95841)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold..

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

Q. What are some of the criteria a prospective investor should look for in a gold firm?

MK. Credibility, longevity, pricing, service and compatibility -- all come into the mix. Of those I rate credibility and its sister virtues -- reliability and reputability -- the most important. Too many of the national firms have brokers who were selling condos at the beach or automobiles a month ago and now suddenly they've become "gold experts" selling leverage schemes, $50,000 rare coins, reproduction medallions at 25 times their gold content, or overpriced silver investments. Most sophisticated gold investors would probably like to avoid that sort of thing.

J-Bullion

(01/27/2003; 10:18:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95842)

Sector

I completely agree. I was just stating that today (and today only) the dollar was rising because Japan has announced that they will devalue their currency even more, which helps the dollar index temporarily. It changes nothing long term. The race to devalue everyone's currencies is kicking into high gear. I'm just glad that gold exists to protect oneself from all the central bankers insanity.

Henri

(01/27/2003; 10:18:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95843)

Boxman-msg# 95827

I guess ya gotta ask the question...who stands to gain by Pakistan being vaporized...the cartel that wants to build a new pipeline down from the Caspian through Afganistan and to points South?...gives urban renewal a whole new perspective.

Certainly I am not in favor of anything of this sort...just asking the obvious question.

My faith is in the traditionally inner peaceful Indians to not overreact to provocateurs of dubious origen.

TownCrier

(01/27/2003; 10:25:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95844)

Thanks davefinger

Out with the old and in with the new.

Things looked fine on IE, but one look using Navigator both revealed the problem you cited and pinpointed the cause.

The code had a bogus space like this

when it should have been thus

Threads? My what an expansive tapestry we would weave. I think our users would hunt me down and burn me alive if I tried to put that change across the board.

Please forgive me if I choose life.

;-)

Randy

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/27/2003; 10:27:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95845)

Put a Firm Foundation Under Your Portfolio

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call USAGOLD - Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115

1340cc

(01/27/2003; 10:43:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95846)

*****425.5

One of the things I noticed is that Boot's & Coots went from .15c Friday to .57c today. Someone KNOWS that there are going to be a lot of oil well fires to put out. Who better than the Bushes to have that info. Do you suppose they are the ones who have bought 20,000,000 shares of "WEL" today alone? I think it was about the same number on Friday. At least with Gold & Silver we won't need to worry about it catching fire in that way.

R Powell

(01/27/2003; 10:50:05 MDT - Msg ID: 95848)

Conference News

ElGordo and Waverider, Thanks guys for the news.
There should be more news leaking out soon. I'm afraid David Morgan may be right about the need for an industrial shortage to really awaken silver. If it goes that far it will be awesome to watch.
Rich

gvc

(01/27/2003; 10:56:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95849)

***** $379.80 *******

The next important gold development , imo, will be the "surprise" swift runup to levels that will have EVERYONE talking about gold. This huge move will be initiated by a massive amount of short covering but will be sustained by new investors wanting a piece of the golden pie. That will be the time to get out of this market for awhile. good luck to all.

Max Rabbitz

(01/27/2003; 11:00:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95850)

Henri and Caspian Oil

As Black blade pointed out earlier, the Caspian reserves were vastly overestimated. They are only 5-10% of original estimates and that is of poor quality,i.e., high in sulfur. It's my belief that the whole Caspian story of an elephant sized field was an attempt by a previous administration to manipulate oil prices down before the 2000 election.

The stock of oil companies has actually been declining for the last year even with over $30 oil! Pretty sorry excuse for a cartel.

The next energy crisis is here and this one is more than just a temporary inconvenience. Get ready for a new lifestyle.

Gandalf the White

(01/27/2003; 11:05:03 MDT - Msg ID: 95851)

SPOT is UP and down !! <;-)

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=1&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=38&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iIWOWSERS SPIKE !! You have to stop watching those YOYOs ! These $4 ups and downs are making me and SPOT "DIZZY'er".
<;-)

Clink!

(01/27/2003; 11:10:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95852)

@1340cc

Different means, but the same result - a nice power to weight ratio !

Max Rabbitz

(01/27/2003; 11:16:23 MDT - Msg ID: 95853)

****376.00****

The next important event for gold will be the "default" of the COMEX. It will be similar to what happened to palladium on the Tokyo Exchange a few years ago. As prices rose towards $800 an ounce they greatly increased costs for the longs through increased margin requirements, to essentially no margin allowed. I think there were also restrictions on buying. Just selling allowed. Cash settlement only. It worked and the palladium spot price has been in decline ever since. Would this work with gold? Maybe temporarily, and give shorts a last chance to get out.

Clink!

(01/27/2003; 11:23:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95854)

@sector

After last night's excess, I'm having problems even raising a smile today ! I actually live in Pinellas, but work in Tampa, so it's a possibility.

I was meaning to post to thank both you and Christian for some particularly clear explanations at the back end of last week. And I like the statistical approach you took - I had been eyeballing the graph and thinking that it looked too good to be true. Have you tried curve fitting to higher powers ? I would expect it to look parabolic at some stage, but maybe there aren't enough points yet. Maybe I'll fire up my Minitab to find out !

Maverick1

(01/27/2003; 11:29:46 MDT - Msg ID: 95855)

silver shares

I've about had it with the silver producers. Why do they not see the business the way we do. I am going to be extremely upset if another one of the companies I hold, votes to issue more shares for expansion!
I suggest they issue more shares to fund the expenses of their company while they withhold metal! I know that it would be illegal in a strict sense if they collude with another company but what else is going to break the hold these shorts have on them? What is the point of "expanding" a company that is barely profitable?!

Pizz

(01/27/2003; 11:30:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95856)

Epic Battle - Longs vs. Shorts

Like in the depression, when bare fisted fighters fought for prise money within caged, no rules, wagered contests.

Stock Market Index shorts beating the bulls to death.

Gold longs giving the shorts no mercy, no time to catch their breath both in metal and stocks.

Going to be some big winners and some big losers before this is over - just depends on when, whether next month or two or over next 18 months, but the long PM's ans short SM players have the edge.

I wouldn't try trading this market with someone elses money, let alone mine.

What a battle. . . . .

Pizz

Pizz

(01/27/2003; 11:40:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95857)

Maverick1

Patience buddy. Silver is consolodating between 4.70 and 4.90, and the silver producers have had a normal correction within their upward channels - and they are at support levels.

Don't let your emotions get the better of you. Emotional traders buy at the top and sell at the bottom. When you feel like selling, it's probably time to buy.

No guarantees, but the silver producers I watch are oversold on houly and daily basis. We still need a bit more consolidating for the weekly technical picture to be bulish, but it's not really necessary.

Keep the faith -

Pizz

Maverick1

(01/27/2003; 12:00:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95858)

Pizz

I'm hanging in there. True, when I get frustated it is just before the turning points.

Pizz

(01/27/2003; 12:06:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95859)

Stock Dilution

Every time a producer announces a shelf offering for new shares, I keep seeing outrage from current stockholders that their shares have been diluted and everyone reacts negatively and sells. both here and on other boards, and it's not just in PM's.

A company can expand two ways. Borrow money or issue new stock.

A stockholders' value is basically assets minus libilities. When they borrow, assets go up by the same amount as liabilities, so stockholders equity remains the same, but they lose because of the extra interest expense.

When they issue equity instead of borrowing, assets increase
(cash), but liabilities remain the same. So even though the shares are diluted, there are more assets to offset the dilution. AND THEY DON'T HAVE THE INTEREST EXPENSE.

The issuance of stock is the sign of a strong company, whereas ones that just issue debt weaken their financial position.

If stockholders don't understand the workings of finance, or have no faith in the management of the company to use the proceeds to increase future stock values, they shouldn't be in the stock anyway - if it's a PM stock, they really should be in physical gold (with no liabilities, management, etc.,)or in non Pm stocks, cash.

Pizz

Gandalf the White

(01/27/2003; 12:20:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95860)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !UPDATE as on 12:00 HIGH NOON Monday 01/27/03 Denver Time !!

Please note that there is only 48 hours until the Entry DEADLINE !! WATCH your CLOCK !! <;-)

QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003:

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 = $358.1 + $7.0 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a Low = $350.0
1/17/03 = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a Low = $355.3 and Sir ROCK was "King of the Hill" !
1/21/03 = $357.5 + $0.7 with a HIGH = $358.1 and a Low = $353.4 and Sir Goldenboy was "KING of the HILL"
1/22/03 = $359.9 + $2.4 with a HIGH = $360.4 and a Low = $357.8 and Sir Henri was "KING of the HILL!"
1/23/03 = $364.6 + $4.7 with a HIGH = $367.7 and a Low = $360.0 and ... WOWSERS .. A TIE !!
.......................................................BOTH Sir monTROZ & Sir Rock were "KINGS of the Hill !!!"
1/24/03 = $368.4 + $3.8 with a HIGH = $370.2 and a Low = $362.8 and Sir J-Bullion" was "KING of the HILL!"
1/27/03 = $369.4 + $1.0 with a HIGH = $373.7 and a Low = $367.8 and Sir Truthcaster is Truthcaster"King of the HILL!"

===
85.....ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

**** $750.0 **** Caradoc (1/17/03; 10:49:20MT - msg#: 94778

**** $583.7 **** valsteve11 (1/26/03; 14:43:17MT - msg#: 95718

**** $480.3 **** Cometose (1/23/03; 10:01:34MT - msg#: 95329

**** $471.0 **** PorterSweden (1/26/03; 12:26:36MT - msg#: 95705

**** $427.4 **** rsjacksr (1/24/03; 09:47:47MT - msg#: 95443

**** $426.2 **** drawmax (1/20/03; 08:09:53MT - msg#: 94990)

**** $425.5 **** 1340cc (1/27/03; 10:43:51MT - msg#: 95846

**** $419.4 **** The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - msg#: 94798

**** $413.5 **** Farfel (01/26/03; 22:39:08MT - msg#: 95760

**** $404.5 **** Magister Aurelius (1/23/03; 10:23:42MT - msg#: 95332

**** $403.5 **** misetich (1/17/03; 18:25:29MT - msg#: 94815

**** $400.0 **** Sundeck (1/17/03; 04:25:05MT - msg#: 94737

**** $399.4 **** Clint H (1/27/03; 08:46:56MT - msg#: 95825

**** $398.8 **** Beach (1/25/03; 14:37:16MT - msg#: 95611

**** $396.4 **** Bulldog (1/17/03; 20:05:57MT - msg#: 94825

**** $395.1 **** Pizz (1/23/03; 10:48:12MT - msg#: 95337

**** $392.2 **** omegaman (1/25/03; 00:21:10MT - msg#: 95553

**** $390.0 **** Galerider (01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - msg#: 94724)

**** $388.8 **** Shanti (01/24/03; 10:20:12MT - msg#: 95448

**** $387.5 **** knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - msg#: 94800

**** $386.2 **** Basil (1/26/03; 01:04:02MT - msg#: 95645

**** $386.0 **** Gondolin (1/27/03; 10:03:02MT - msg#: 95838

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (1/17/03; 05:12:59MT - msg#: 94738

**** $384.5 **** Tate (1/25/03; 08:24:55MT - msg#: 95574

**** $383.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - msg#: 94791

**** $382.5 **** Hipplebeck (1/18/03; 06:47:33MT - msg#: 94850

**** $381.4 **** Gold Standard (1/27/03; 00:26:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 95774)

**** $381.0 **** Camel (01/24/03; 18:38:52MT - msg#: 95519

**** $380.2 **** pinetree (1/23/03; 09:04:28MT - msg#: 95322

**** $379.8 **** gvc (1/27/03; 10:56:00MT - msg#: 95849

**** $379.3 **** donnemuir (1/26/03; 09:39:48MT - msg#: 95673

**** $379.1 **** ha_tey_o (1/17/03; 07:24:56MT - msg#: 94741

**** $378.9 **** erayboy (1/17/03; 03:05:04MT - msg#: 94729
**** $378.8 **** miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - msg#: 94805

**** $378.1 **** a nation of one (01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - msg#: 94720

**** $377.0 **** Frosty (01/24/03; 18:01:40MT - msg#: 95516

**** $376.8 **** goldenpeace (1/27/03; 09:23:19MT - msg#: 95829

**** $376.2 **** GoldenSun (1/23/03; 09:26:38MT - msg#: 95325

**** $376.0 **** Max Rabbitz (1/27/03; 11:16:23MT - msg#: 95853

**** $375.5 **** balzac (1/18/03; 14:15:59MT - msg#: 94880

**** $375.0 **** Mountain Top (1/19/03; 10:56:32MT - msg#: 94937

**** $374.6 **** harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - msg#: 94792

**** $374.1 **** Slowman (1/17/03; 06:10:05MT - msg#: 94739
**** $374.0 **** Zhisheng (1/17/03; 09:53:34MT - msg#: 94762

**** $373.5 **** kahulik (01/20/03; 11:08:21MT - msg#: 94998

**** $372.2 **** Houston (1/19/03; 10:30:11MT - msg#: 94934

**** $372.0 **** OZ (1/17/03; 02:14:25MT - msg#: 94727
**** $371.9 **** silvercollector (1/22/03; 05:15:12MT - msg#: 95191
**** $371.8 **** Time For GOLD (1/22/03; 11:17:36MT - msg#: 95211

**** $371.2 **** Achilles (1/23/03; 09:27:54MT - msg#: 95326

**** $370.9 **** Richman (1/22/03; 11:18:21MT - msg#: 95212

**** $370.5 **** VanRip (1/17/03; 07:59:23MT - msg#: 94747
**** $370.4 **** The Knife (1/26/03; 06:14:53MT - msg#: 95652
**** $370.3 **** Casey (01/23/03; 13:32:42MT - msg#: 95349

**** $370.1 **** Black Blade (1/23/03; 10:00:48MT - msg#: 95328

**** $369.9 **** Ole Man (1/18/03; 23:30:28MT - msg#: 94912

**** $369.5 **** Truthcaster (1/23/03; 09:18:53MT - msg#: 95323

**** $369.2 **** slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - msg#: 94796

**** $369.0 **** wiley (01/21/03; 12:21:41MT - msg#: 95102

**** $368.7 **** Toolie (01/23/03; 20:26:50MT - msg#: 95394

**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750

**** $368.2 **** Zelts (01/21/03; 07:34:30MT - msg#: 95080

**** $367.4 **** Kagalaska (01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - msg#: 94721

**** $366.7 **** seagull (1/27/03; 00:14:48MT - msg#: 95772

**** $366.0 **** White Rose (01/21/03; 09:29:59MT - msg#: 95093

**** $365.6 **** Shermag (1/26/03; 07:59:54MT - msg#: 95660

**** $365.2 **** pilgrims_gold (1/18/03; 10:01:47MT - msg#: 94863

**** $365.0 **** monTROZ (01/20/03; 12:50:24MT - msg#: 95005

**** $364.2 **** Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - msg#: 94755

**** $363.0 **** luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - msg#: 94795

**** $362.5 **** EagleOne (1/18/03; 14:02:13MT - msg#: 94877

**** $362.3 **** Renny (1/18/03; 05:15:47MT - msg#: 94848

**** $362.0 **** Albatros (01/21/03; 07:48:42MT - msg#: 95081

**** $361.7 **** mudr (01/23/03; 20:19:27MT - msg#: 95391

**** $361.1 **** Lothar of the Hill People (01/20/03; 13:51:40MT - msg#: 95013

**** $360.8 **** Liberty Head (01/20/03; 19:45:52MT - msg#: 95040

**** $360.5 **** Felix the Cat (1/20/03; 03:35:20MT - msg#: 94984

**** $360.0 **** Henri (1/18/03; 15:28:31MT - msg#: 94886

**** $359.7 **** Alaskan hunter (01/23/03; 14:12:45MT - msg#: 95355

**** $359.1 **** 24carat (1/18/03; 16:10:36MT - msg#: 94889

**** $358.0 **** makcumka (1/20/03; 05:44:13MT - msg#: 94987

**** $357.6 **** goldenboy (01/21/03; 09:16:39MT - msg#: 95092

**** $355.1 **** MO VER MEG (1/26/03; 08:24:25MT - msg#: 95663

**** $348.0 **** Topaz (1/17/03; 03:06:48MT - msg#: 94730

**** $203.0 **** Around The Corner (01/24/03; 11:01:41MT - msg#: 95452

===

INVALID ENTRIES

NONE

===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.
---

THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February �03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 -----

The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old) goldpiece !!
Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin was
Minted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce.
(Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)
---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
(Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines"
LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!!
READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
---
LET the CONTEST CONTINUE !!
<;-)

Pizz

(01/27/2003; 12:21:06 MDT - Msg ID: 95861)

Maverick1

If you want to ease you emotions a bit, as long as you want to invest in PM's, lighten up or eliminate your paper gold positions and buy the physical.

There is going to be a lot of volitility in both the metal and shares, and it's going to be tough enough to keep your emotions in check with the metal, let along the paper which will react FIVE times as much as the metal.

Each to their own comfort level, but volitility is going to increase.

(Anyone else haveing trouble with their internet connections, mine keeps kicking in and out, a doing strange things with my browser - like lags, and ommissions at times - that worm may be affecting servers more than they think. . .)

Pizz

Cometose

(01/27/2003; 12:42:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95862)

Maverick1

I empathize with you re: Silver Shares.....

I don't think you have much to worry about....in the long term.....

I would be willing to bet that you are going to be handsomely rewarded....as a matter of fact I already did bet....

I don't think anyone pays too much attention to silver in the media ..... they use it in a couple of areas....big deal.....but it also used to be MONEY......hmmm....

and .....you are in good company .....

George Soros....you know him........He owns a huge chunk of a silver mine in MEXICO APEX.....and Bill Gates....romored to play cards with Warren Buffet ....you know him.....he owns Microsoft....shares too....He , it is said, is heavily invested in Silver......and oh yeah ...
Warren Buffet....you know him.(the oracle of omaha; the one that buys low and sells high / the value investor guy of the last century ...the one that made his clients in Berkshire Hathaway 25% for 30 years running ).......He bought 100 million ounces of Silver;(20% of the known supply) ....4 or 5 years ago.....

Just tuck those shares away and stay busy focusing on your job and studying the information that can make you free..
,,,, these markets are going to take care of themselves without any of your meddling and they are going to take care of you ....if you let them .....

but remember .....a watchpot never boils....
....these eggs are going to hatch all by themselves ....they won't need any help from you ....

HANG ON LOOSELY!!!!!!! and be thankful for where you are at and therein be content....

THe FIREWORKS should be starting any day now....

BEST REGARDS<

COMETOSE

Boilermaker

(01/27/2003; 12:53:23 MDT - Msg ID: 95863)

Pizz -Stock Dilution

There's another way for miners to raise capital, sell their reserves, ie., hedge. Most of us here believe this is not a good approach. Several of my junior gold stocks are doing private placements on a regular (yearly) basis. I'm not too happy about that but its the lesser of the evils forced on them by low gold prices. What surprises me is that there have been few buyouts of junior gold co's recently. It seems someone such as a gold co, banker, big investor, etc. looking for deep storage gold would be making some offers. Any ideas on this?

Boilermaker

Magister Aurelius

(01/27/2003; 13:05:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95864)

alarums and genuine signs of collapse

For the past month or so the canaries in the coal mine have been dropping, giving big time alarms for those who can hear (such as the members of this fine place). But the alarms will not sound forever, and if things continue as they are.... well very bad things happen to countries' economies. My question is, what is the point of no return for say, the US economy, measured by the price of gold and silver? At what point is the POG and POS high enough that they are no longer alarms but a sign that the fiat economy can no longer limp along but gets flushed down the sewer? IMHO I think this point is at $1,000 oz for gold and $10 oz for silver. The central banks can delay collapse at prices below $1000 but once it climbs above this point, all heck breaks loose.

ElGordo

(01/27/2003; 13:10:56 MDT - Msg ID: 95865)

Contest

*****$435*****

The next major event I think will be a banking crisis in Japan.
This could start a financial crisis world-wide. Demand for
gold would be greatly increased.

ElGordo

(01/27/2003; 13:12:19 MDT - Msg ID: 95866)

correction

*****$435.5*****

Forgot the decimal!

sector

(01/27/2003; 13:12:59 MDT - Msg ID: 95867)

@ Clink! You can find me over at...

http://www.goldensextant.com...in the "Regression Charts" area. Give me a ringy-dingy.

As for the higher power curve fitting we don't need it.

If the assumption is that the Strong Dollar died with SECTREAS O'Neill firing, then the PM Fix has traced an almost linear slope upward since that moment with a very tight .89 R^2 value.

In addition, the Dollar Index Value of Gold has moved sharply upward too. I could include you on my mailing list.

A key thing to appreciate is the mountain of gold that has been fed to the world's markets in the form of forwards, swaps and loans in order to suppress the gold price. Any action designed to turn this bull move around will just suck the G-10s vaults even faster than they already are being drained.

This fact is central to the view pitted against any real gold price pull-back. The shares keep getting shorted and I guess it will take some time for the specs to get the message that gold is on a ramp upwards because the Strong Dollar is DEAD and their gold share short positions are DEAD TOO. When that time comes, the shares will shoot much higher in a true short-covering rally [For the shares].

@Maverick1 Faith in the rising future of precious metal is based partly in the trust that politicians are craven. One should worry if they were honest as a group. You have absolutely nothing to fear regarding a bright future for PMs.

Broken Tee

(01/27/2003; 13:21:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95868)

******** 370.7 *********************

The war in Iraq will not brother the market as much has the lowering of the dollar. It's just an easy excuse for the press to use.

Black Blade

(01/27/2003; 13:39:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95869)

1340cc � Oil Disaster Response Companies

Yes, Boots and Coots has had quite a run. Other quick response companies have also had a recent run as well. US Liquids is another. These guys essentially deal with waste liquids. Apparently the expectations are that Saddam will be engaged in a "scorched earth" policy. This is not all that uncommon among megalomaniacs for some reason. Hitler did the same thing (or at least attempted to do so). I heard that last week these quick disaster response companies were negotiating contracts with the US government to be on alert to move into action quickly once the war starts. They don't want to watch well fires and liquid gold running all over the desert floor for several months like in Kuwait. On "Meet The Press", Dec. 29, Secretary Colin Powell stated "If a coalition of forces goes into those oil fields, we would want to protect those fields and make sure that they are used to benefit the Iraqi people and are not destroyed or damaged by a falling regime on the way out the door".

Of course France, Germany, and Russia are opposed to war as they have invested $billions. France is owed over $3 billion, Germany $1 billion, and Russia over $9 billion in loans, not to mention $billions more in oil contracts. Their interests are purely economic so there is no obvious fundamental difference in philosophy between them and other nations. One cannot blame them for taking this stand as they fear not getting repaid and yet they risk being left out of the picture once a new regime is in place. This is going to get very "interesting".

- Black Blade

Dollar Bill

(01/27/2003; 13:44:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95870)

A nation of one,

You seemed rushed at the end of your post.
Care to elaborate of rewrite?

-Demand for gold is increasing because everyone with a brain knows that the United States is in very deep trouble, and that it will probably get much worse before it gets better. The Golden Age of America is over. Oil will be coming to an end, for many of us, in our lifetime. Intelligent informed people understand this. The war will not be good for our nation, ultimately, but will hasten its ruin. There can be no doubt of this. Such knowledge has been in human possession for millennia. Only those who ignore history do not know it

Boilermaker

(01/27/2003; 13:48:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95871)

Saddam's Oil Revenge

I expect that SH will use dirty explosives to discharge his wells. That will increase the difficulty of the containment job by an order of magnitude. If he were to convey that thought to GWB he might get some slack.

Boilermaker

R Powell

(01/27/2003; 13:51:18 MDT - Msg ID: 95872)

Where's the cash?

I just checked the day's activity via the forum page link to mrci's daily delayed quotes and found the Cow, Nasdoggie and S+P indexes all red so I was prepared to scroll down to find the notes, bonds and such all green. Not so, only the 30 year note (it still lives!) is green, one is unchanged and the rest are red, like the major indexes. Where, oh where did the money go today?
The +2.00 POG is nice but didn't require anywhere near what's unaccounted for. Pizz, did you take the money?
Rich

a nation of one

(01/27/2003; 14:23:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95873)

Reply to: Dollar Bill (1/27/03; 13:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 95870)

"You seemed rushed at the end of your post. Care to elaborate of rewrite?"

--War may be necessary as an activity, since space is limited on our planet, for one thing, and because perfection is not a goal that most people set for themselves in achieving many human objectives, though, in the end, it will eventually have to be. Some already know this. But war can be used as a means of determining who will remain. I speak generally. Although this is true, however, war still has undesirable effects, not only on the vanguished, but also on the victors. The spoils of war are not called spoils for nothing. A number of writers in the ancient world recorded for us their observations on this matter. Where there is an army there follows poverty among the people. A military force is extremely expensive to put afield and to maintain. There is usually only one place where the riches can come from to pay for this. The generals create no money. The king creates no money. The soldiers create no money. Only the people themselves usually produce wealth in sufficient magnitude to pay for the cost of large military forces. For five hundred years now the people have been living on the fat of the land, and that is waning. Politicians -WE fuly KNOW!- abuse with their own ability to sieze a people's wealth. And they spend it wrongly, we know this too. If a vast and powerful force is put in place by means of paper money, whose only value is that a government says it is valuable, what should be expected of something that really does have value, such as gold?

a nation of one

(01/27/2003; 14:26:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95874)

sorry about the spelling

I am at an unfamiliar machine and clicked the wrong button.

Belgian

(01/27/2003; 14:43:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95875)

@ Ari

Don't let us become impatient and give the different dynamics, time to search their appropiate direction.
Time will simply tell ! We don't need to speculate or gamble with the physical in possession. Regards fellow Gold knight.

Boilermaker

(01/27/2003; 14:45:14 MDT - Msg ID: 95876)

nation of one

No (spelling) apology needed. Your point is well stated and completely understandable. My compliments.

Boilermaker

Believer

(01/27/2003; 14:51:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95877)

Guesser's Guess

*****407.8*****
Volatility seems to be increasing. Gold was up 4.10 earlier this morning. CNBC showed it up 1.00 at 3:30 E and Kitko showed it up 2.00 at 4:15. They are seemingly beating the price of gold and gold shares down in the morning. (GOOD TIME TO BUY,IN THE MORNING) and over the past few weeks they seem to jump back up at the end of the day. (GOOD TIME TO HOLD) We are finally getting to point where "BUY and HOLD" does make some sense!

a nation of one

(01/27/2003; 14:53:02 MDT - Msg ID: 95878)

Reply to canamami (1/27/03; 09:23:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 95830)

"But if the world starts going nuclear and chemical....what good will gold do for anyone? Gold doesn't offer much insurance against the ULTIMATE worse case scenarios. (O.T.: I wonder if the new red heifer has sprung any imperfect hairs yet :-) )."

--It is especially during worst case scenarios that gold is most useful. It should not hard for most people to figure out several ways in which a determined alian internal force change our world rather easily. (And no, I do not sympathize with such efforts.) If people couldn't get to work, or couldn't operate their computers, or go online, or watch tv, or listen to radio, or heat their homes, things would be different. Then, as at few times before, physical
gold would be an extremely desireable item to possess.

Nibelung

(01/27/2003; 14:55:54 MDT - Msg ID: 95879)

****$399.9****

The price of gold will continue to move strongly upward. The trend is now well established: the dollar is falling and gold is rising. The existence of this unmistakable trend will prompt increasing numbers of people to consider buying gold.

Many, upon noting the solidly established trend, will seek understanding and conduct some independent research. Many of those who carry out serious research and analysis of this matter (that they had previously overlooked), will make the decision to buy gold. This will reinforce the established trend, causing an ever widening circle of people to take gold seriously and to reject the specious pleadings of the paper asset carnival barkers.

sector

(01/27/2003; 14:59:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95880)

@ Rich Powell Where's the Cash?

A Clue is the fall in Fed repo outstandingsThere has been a big expiration which has taken the Fed Repurchase Agreements [As reported each day by the New York Fed] outstanding from about $40 Billion on Jan 21rst, to a little over $12 Billion today. Give or take a math fudge

Thus, it would seem that the Fed's stock market float operation has been scaled back a tad and this has "Caused" the markets to "Fall" a bit and the normally seen cash-flows are just not there. Where is Joe Six-Pack when the Fed needs him?

Uncle Fed took the play money back from the trading houses...for the moment.

Regarding the shares, the gold pundits are saying [UBS Reade] that a run up when the war starts then a pull back. More "official" gold commentary designed to scare weak hands.

Hogwash. No change in the gold price ramp slope as the war starts...no change as the shooting ends [Whether it takes years or weeks to stop].

This is their gold the G-10 is spending to control the upwards direction [Not to mention Germany]. Why blow it on frivolous bopping when all they want is to get it higher so they can eventually stop selling in an orderly fashion?

Golden Bear

(01/27/2003; 15:01:14 MDT - Msg ID: 95881)

aussie (msg#: 95808) Mind games

Hi aussie,

IMO, the gold price will take a hit IF their is no war, but it will be healthy - its recent runup has been extremely strong and pause is not a problem.

Markets are like waves, they travel in both directions, and as long as your riding the primary wave, you are travelling the path of least resistance, and the primary wave is UP!

Especially for those who hold bullion, they can sit back and relax and watch their wealth increase in value with little stress, especially since I cannot see a peaceful resolution to this building Iraq scenario. No matter how much rhetoric is bandied about, I watch actions, and all I see is huge military buildup in the middle east, and to me it does not look good.

As for the rising POG, the major proportion of its rise is NOT due to Iraq, but due to deteriorating fundamentals of the US economy and the Fed's willingness to inflate, as is depicted in the US dollar price and the stock market. Foreigners are pulling money out of the US, and are putting it in bullion and currencies like the Euro, Swiss and the Aussie.

Keep an eye on these for the flow of money.

Cheers.

CoBra(too)

(01/27/2003; 15:25:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95882)

It's Stalingrad for the Dow and the Dollar ...

Gold held its own - the $ tried hard and the Dow tanked again - as all eyes have been on Hans Blix's testimony before the UN Security Council.

So we've got some evidence of nerve gas in the tons by now! Let's see if we can figure out more - given time. That's the unknown - time!

Wall Street may not be trading in nerve gas - as the Djia tanked below 8.000 again - and it's slowly starting to un-nerve even the boldest bulls. As a friend of mine directed me to a Milhouse chart (believe that's Steve - Saville), pointing out a huge gap in the DJIA at 2.500 back in 1991.
A gap, which he feels will have to be filled sooner or later ... as the story is the gap occured at the beginning of "Desert Storm"!

May that be, as it is - the reality of Gold has not left any gap yet - as uncharted waters are again ahead (EW) - at least since a generation or two - Who had no idea of asking a question or two ... as to the value, or better buying power of their 401K or RSSP at the time of need.

Too bad - and too late. And in the end it's forecasting the terminal ills of a system gone awry - while the cure is so close and pure ... GOLD - cb2

a nation of one

(01/27/2003; 15:25:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95883)

share in America

There is at least one great big problem with calling a dollar "a share in America." A share in a company is first issued for the purpose of raising capital so a company can be established. In the case of America and the dollar, the reverse was the case. Also, if a company wants its shares back, it has to buy them. All America has to do is take them. Further, since there is no good reason to hold on to shares unless dividends are paid to share holders -with the exeption of when strong growth is a substantial prossibility (which is rarely the case right now)- in more normal times, companies do pay dividends, to help their share holders justify keeping them, or buying more. The dollar pays no dividends. In fact it steadily and purposfully declines in value. Governments make use of inflation to defray their debts at the expense of citizens, which is who holds dollars. Just try going to Washington and asking somebody in Congress to give you a few more cents for each dollar you possess. With a company you can do this. And, often, they pay. Shareholders are said to own something of the company, though this is often not actually true. With dollars, you explicitly own nothing.

Mr Gresham

(01/27/2003; 15:31:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95884)

Where's the cash -- Part 3

http://msn.com.com/2251-1110-982181.htmlI can hear it now -- "What? You haven't received payment yet? Must be that Slammer Worm again. The check's in the 'Net."

Get liquid.

CoBra(too)

(01/27/2003; 15:32:56 MDT - Msg ID: 95885)

@ a nation of one ... SO?!

... or better, let me know the essence of your latest post -
as I'm probably too dumb to figure it out, Sir - of the nation of one - cb2

Black Blade

(01/27/2003; 15:33:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95886)

CNBC Gold and Crude Oil Ticker

I see that CNBC is showing the POG and POO in the lower right hand corner during trading hours now. They even had a financial manager (Susan Byrne) recommend a small holding of gold in personal portfolios. This is quite a change but I suppose with their low ratings since the bubble burst and investors shaking with fear as 401K statements arrive in the mail, the network decided to switch gears and try to attract a new audience. Of course the continuous gold bashing was getting rather absurd as the price of gold kept rising as equities sank into oblivion. People are looking for hard assets or "things" as opposed to "paper" as Puplava and others have been saying. With shrinking ratings it appears that CNBC is now looking to find new viewers. But then how could they ignore a couple of recent CNBC polls where Gold Investment ranked very high indicating the changing investment philosophies and demographics of their viewers. In recent weeks the early edition "Wake Up Call" (also the name of a morning premarket report I used to post here a couple of years ago on the forum) has been given a lot of exposure to Gold by anchors Liz Claman and Carl Quintenilla. This is just the beginning and we are likely to see more positive press for gold.

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!!! Gotta work of that Super Bowl nachos and brew.

Factory worker

(01/27/2003; 15:37:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95887)

Question from a newbie...

I'm new to this forum and really a newbie to the gold / silver issues, so I ask your patience. First, in your view, when it's all said and done will we eventually have an inflationary or deflationary matter to deal with? If inflationary, what protective measures should be taken now, and if you believe it to be a deflationary scenario what then?
Second, what measures should be taken as far as protection of deposits should the banks go down? Gold, Silver, Cash? and if metals, should it be US coins or Canadian, as far as a threat of recall is concerned?

Thanks!

Mr Gresham

(01/27/2003; 15:46:50 MDT - Msg ID: 95888)

a.n.o.o.

Good opening for considering that phrase: "The Dollar is a share in America." I think it's meant more figuratively, in that outsiders are "voting" by exchange rates on what they think US economy is doing. But I never saw that as matching up, because the GDP can be producing all kinds of increases, internally, but leaving little for foreigners to buy with their "shares".

Anyway, in a bankruptcy, the shareholders are supposed to be the ones wiped out, before the bondholders lose any. The Dollar is not only not a share; it's not even a bond. (Hey, "It doesn't pay interest" -- remember that one?) It's only a promise of future nominal purchasing power, not of repayment, and certainly not in terms of any real "stuff".

To get really convoluted with the analogy, then what are T-bonds held externally to be called? "Bonds" with a promise of repayment in "shares"? Wouldn't any corporation love to get away with that one!

Pretty twisted stuff, huh?

To me, the Dollar, as a figment, er, fragment of Integrity seems to me an entry on the Fed's balance sheet attached to a whispered promise, "Dollars are our Business. Ah, we'll try not to print too many."

And, from the accounting perspective, the only ones the Fed really owes any repayment on, are the paper ones, the Federal Reserve "Notes", right? Those are a claim on something actually held by the Fed, whatever it may be. (Gold? Future Treasury tax collections?)

So, two kinds of Dollars?

The Fed prints the ones it considers to be the REAL Dollars, and will back up with -- something.

And, it says (REAL quietly), You all can go ahead and make anything else you want to call "Dollars", in whatever quantity you end up making, and we'll take into consideration just how much -- and which ones -- we want to back up with what WE consider to be our first-line Dollars.

canamami

(01/27/2003; 16:19:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95889)

a nation of one

Well, I suspect that if things started going nuclear/bioterror, etc. in a big way, humanity would revert to the animals pretty quickly. Gold, as a tool for civilized men to save and exchange, would probably not be useful. On the other hand, if the basic social order held notwithstanding the damage and chaos, ownership of gold could very well be beneficial.

Trurl

(01/27/2003; 16:35:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95890)

What is a dollar?

http://www.treas.gov/education/faq/currency/legal-tender.htmlMr Gresham and a.n.o.o --

If I may jump in here, I found this a while back. I was suprised because it is so clear:

"Federal Reserve notes represent a first lien on all the assets of the Federal Reserve Banks, and on the collateral specifically held against them".

The next question is ok, just what are those assets? The FAQ lists :"This collateral is chiefly gold certificates and United States securities". If you poke around the web at alternative viewpoint sites, other "uncomfortable" assets are also said to be included.

Bulldog

(01/27/2003; 16:37:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95891)

Factory Worker - Inflation/deflation

Welcome. A decent discourse on the subject can be found at
www.gold-eagle.com in their Editorials. Scroll down the latest Editorials and you will find a Title: "Inflation Outlook:deflation fears are irrational" by Bugos.
Most jurisdictions have Federal deposit insurance and in Canada I believe the FDIC covers up to $60,000 per customer at each bank.
I wouldn't worry about threat of recall. If you buy gold, I doubt you are going to tell too many people and I think you should keep it somewhere safe not in a bank. Look at the experience in Argentina recently where patrons could not get through the locked doors of the banks. Easier for the central government to simply expropriate producing gold mines. In the U.S. if Bush can go into a foreign country to expropriate their oil, he sure as the scallywag he is be able to utilize some executive order to take over gold mines if he deems it necessary. Just my opinions of course, but I suggest that you might wish to read some of the Archives to increase your knowledge base of the issues which are discussed here.

Hipplebeck

(01/27/2003; 17:05:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95892)

Factory Worker

I believe it will be inflation, because the central bankers have assured us that they have the means to prevent deflation, and I believe them. The government can borrow unlimited amounts of dollars and put them into circulation. If they close the banks like they did in argentina, you can probably say goodbye to the value of your deposits, but then we will have our chance to get back on the constitution and begin using gold and silver coins as currency again.
The greatest vulnerability in my opinion to our present financial system is that someone some day is going to find a way to ruin the electronic network it all relies on.

Cometose

(01/27/2003; 17:25:40 MDT - Msg ID: 95893)

INO open this morning on GOLD PRICE

For the benefit of those of you who weren't here at the time ---- at 6:30 am mountain....when I opened up this site this morning , the INO system had GOLD down $10 + change at $368 and change.....Was this an aberration or was gold that high in the Eastern Markets and then got beat down in Europe and NY ....anybody know anything about this ????

canamami

(01/27/2003; 17:29:48 MDT - Msg ID: 95894)

Reply to Bulldog

The fact that gold is not legally part of the monetary system in a big way (one exception: gold clauses are legal again and are relevant in some old, very long-term leases) would actually serve to protect gold mines and gold owners. In the Depression, the Courts found authority to restrict gold ownership as part of Congress' power to regulate the money supply, because gold was integral to the currency system. Now, given that gold is not a major part, legally, of the currrency system, there is no reason to treat gold differently than other private property. Hence, there would be US constitutional protection for those who own gold and gold mines, IMHO.

steady

(01/27/2003; 17:54:37 MDT - Msg ID: 95895)

aristotle question

ive noticed you correcting or setting those who have strayed off the path.... im lost can u just explain the whole thing to me so i dont have to go thru and figure it out !

darkhorse

(01/27/2003; 17:57:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95896)

Cometose

The INO site got a bit whacked early this weekend, I don't know why. It showed a big price jump, apparently unknown on any market...then it corrected yesterday evening when the Asian markets opened. Best I can offer....

Cometose

(01/27/2003; 18:17:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95897)

Soros on PMS today

I just thought I should interject here since roaming another site just now.......K

Earlier today , George Soros, cautioned investors about taking large positions in the metals because ......

of all things ......

Peace is breaking out in IRAQ......

( my ad: while the Peace question is being played out,
all the other geopolitical and global economic issues are
going to work themselves out ,,,,,there will be chicken in every pot ..... traquility and unity is going to fall out upon all of us .....and we are all going to be invited to Buckingham Palace to have tea with the Queen, Christopher Robin and Pooh)

I can't believe it... it's really great counter intelligence play if he and his cohorts want to corner all the silver and the shares prior to its breakout.....

Loose the metal from the weak hands into their strong hands..

Any comments?

R Powell

(01/27/2003; 18:26:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95898)

Cometose

INO, thebulliondesk and the forex reports were showing a bid of 367.85 and an ask of 378.70 over the weekend. Apparently gold is traded in an Asian market on Saturdays and this may have been leftover from there.
Perhaps an omen?
Rich

Ag Mountain

(01/27/2003; 18:40:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95899)

Factory Worker: I've read the ABCS and it helps a lot with all your questions

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.htmlI guess that's why they call it the ABCS because I guess it means All Bases Covered.

From the Foreword:
"This book is a distillation of nearly a quarter-century of experience working with private investors interested in adding gold to their investment portfolios. It is not another "get rich quick" or "beat the market" treatise. Instead, it addresses a more practical concern -- how to protect your wealth during what many believe are increasingly dangerous times for the average investor. Sensational returns or making the quick turn of big profits is not what gold investing is all about. Gold has to do with medium to long-term asset preservation -- weathering the storm and having something left after the dust clears. Since the investor is essentially trading an inherently unstable and depreciating form of money for one that has withstood the test of time, incorporating gold into your investment plan is among the more conservative strategies you can undertake. I often counsel investors that purchasing gold is not 'investing' at all. In reality, you are simply replacing one form of money in your savings plan with another. . . .Perhaps gold can offer you what it has offered countless others over the centuries -- solid unassailable protection against the gathering storm."

R Powell

(01/27/2003; 18:44:08 MDT - Msg ID: 95900)

Factory worker

Inflation or Deflation Or, I suppose, noflation.
You have asked a question that ranks among the "which came first, the chicken or the egg?". There has been and still is much debate on this with many watching closely not only what the Federal Reserve is saying and hinting at but also what they are and are not doing. Opinions vary.
The rising CRB index is indicating price inflation of commodities and the government has said it would increase (inflate) the money supply. I believe it has been doing so for some time now. But, many paper assets are deflating.
What to do? Personally, I'd like to severe all connections to banks and creditors. However, this is easier said than done. But, I'm working at it and this keeps me occupied and out of trouble.
No matter what should happen to the value of paper money, precious metals ought to, at the very least, hold their value. Of late, as measured in dollar terms, gold has been doing quite nicely. Gold as compared to the stock markets has been doing extremely well.
Welcome!
Rich

Waverider

(01/27/2003; 18:58:04 MDT - Msg ID: 95901)

VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlBlack Blade, thanks for addressing the issue of the "war premium" that these analysts refer to, and their prognostication that POG will fall back to prewar levels when actual war ensues. As you pointed out, the economic fundamentals are much different than 1991 and hence history is not an accurate predictor of future price movements. The other issue which seems to get overlooked is terrorism - in 1991 we didn't have the means of terrorist retaliation such as we have today, and as has been threatened (promised) should Iraq be invaded. I guess these "analysts" don't touch on that topic to avoid contributing to even more market instability than what already exists. Cheers,
Waverider

Cavan Man

(01/27/2003; 19:02:43 MDT - Msg ID: 95902)

Comment on Soros

He is a pure trader. He is not a seer. He wakes up each morning with an entirely clean "slate" ready and able to change 180 degrees.

AllanC

(01/27/2003; 19:10:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95903)

FYI

Just got back from the Vancouver Resource Conference with Bill Murphy & Chris Powell speaking for GATA. I happen to live nearby...what luck!

The crowd was good, about 800. When the GATA presentation was over, people started to leave, and the next presenter was only able to draw about half that amount.

Hmmm... I get the feeling a lot of people showed up to hear this guy.

sector

(01/27/2003; 19:37:01 MDT - Msg ID: 95904)

@ factory Worker Inflation or Deflation?

As Rich Powell says...it may not matter......as our paper currency is falling in value while gold is rising steadily.

The War Fog machine is rolling, Lehman Bro. says gold goes back to $275, major trading houses say gold falls when the war starts and the shares are leaking�so what's going on?

Fog is happening. Fog from the same trading houses that delivered Enron as a "New Paradigm" of business technology. The tiny gold shares are being pushed around by hedge funds as Jim Sinclair perceptively reports tonight.

Dec 4, 2003 -- The Day the Strong Dollar Died.

It's a devaluation of the US Dollar that is happening behind the War Fog Machines of Washington and Wall Street. They have been forced to drop the dollar against the Major Currencies of the world and gold has reacted upward. A gold bull is running and no force in Nature can stop it. Investors will worry and then be left at the station.

One's best buy today is the shares as they are set to shoot past the rising metal and have been shorted by hedge funds in an effort to shake out weak holders. Those hedge funds want the shares on the cheap. The painted traders at Lehman wants the gold shares on the cheap.

The war is a side show as far as the gold bull is concerned, mostly unrelated to the structural failings of the US economy. Those gold analyst talking heads who suggest gold will fall when the true uncertainty of the shooting war begins are just pathetic in the side-show [If this is the best logic they can come up with].

Saddam burns the elephant fields, the US has no Iraq "coalition" reconstruction funding, the Battle of Baghdad runs on for months with tens of thousands of civilian casualties, the oil shortages from the Venezuela are added to the total loss of Iraqi oil, the Islamic world explodes when Saddam secretly nukes Basra [Only one device would serve the purpose] and then successfully blames President George W. Bush for the civilian carnage [Ensuring that Al-Jazzera had tape at eleven], the US war opposition goes utterly and permanently berserk. Then we have France where upwards of 75% are already angry at the US.

By boasting that the US would not rule out nuclear weapons, Bush and his Death Angel, Paul Wolfowicz, have been too clever by half. Mayberry Machiavellis, drunk on geopolitical, petroleum-distilled, 100-Proof moonshine. Saddam will have won yet another tactical round against the Bush presidential gene pool -- genetics IS scary.

But will there be inflation...of course. It's been ordained by the Fed that the dollar will fall perhaps as low as 60-70 even as the price of gold rises and responds to a buying frenzy. The winners in a true bull market buy and hold.

Daniel Druff

(01/27/2003; 19:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 95905)

An Unusual Occurrence

Getting Physical
[While just now looking at a sea of red on my Reuters Streaming Quotes]...Of all the gold stocks I follow throughout the daily trading session - when possible, there is only one island of green today...Central Fund of Canada which claims to only invest in actual gold and silver but carries a substantial premium and can never compete with gold in hand, from my viewpoint.

The purpose of noting this is NOT to tout the equity but to point out that the acquisition of physical gold in size must be getting more difficult day-by-day. This may be pushing some gold investors to resort to paying the premium and as we certainly know, the physical has been outperforming the stocks for some time.

For the newcomers...pick up the phone and secure some real money from Centennial...soon, very soon!

Thank you

GoldnSilver2002

(01/27/2003; 19:56:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95906)

Congrats bob bishop and mr murphy

I was at both Cambridge conferences sunday and monday.I also attended in 2002.At the conference only murphy and bishop seemed bullish.In my opinion many so called analysts seemed intent on talking down the gold shares.With all due respect to bishop and bill murphy,i wasnt impressed.I liked van eden but came away thinking,ok guys if you are right about gold pulling back to 350,then im selling shares and buying physical.The ceo's killed the stocks in october by selling off.Now the analysts just talked me out of owning any shares lol.As one genius put it,these shares are just like owning enron.I left feeling this crowd wasnt as upbeat or bullish as last year and we are at 370 ish now!I talked mostly to older investors rather than the experts and came away feeling there were a lot of clueless experts and shysters puting on the exhibition.This made it very hard to tell the difference in good from bad.None of these companies seem to be shareholder friendly in terms of returns.Nothing is as sure as gold itself.Thanks to bill and bob the only two truly bullish guys i saw.Although there were many good presentations,many did less than inspire confidence.Do these things pay dividends?Im giving this conference a D the only reason it wasnt was because of murphy.As Bob bishop said "this bull is gonna catch a lot people on the sidelines." refering to so called gold experts.

madgreek

(01/27/2003; 20:00:34 MDT - Msg ID: 95907)

*****$415*****

Hi, As a newbie I want to Thank all of you for your incredible insights! I believe we are in the first innings of a very real BULL MARKET for GOLD!!! Good Luck All!!!

Gandalf the White

(01/27/2003; 20:07:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95908)

WELCOME Sir Madgreek !

madgreek (1/27/03; 20:00:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 95907)
===
Please advise me when we get to the 7th Inning STRETCH !
<;-)

Cometose

(01/27/2003; 20:09:46 MDT - Msg ID: 95909)

@Sector

I think you nailed it .....well stated and
concisely written......

Talk about walking into the jaws of the Lion ..
makes you wonder if G W's dad is deaf and blind or perhaps leading his son into this ambush on purpose ...

I don't know anything about munitions....perhaps it's more lucrative than oil or drugs....maybe it's about making money on war...TEEING UP WWIII

Head em' up, VIET NAM
Here I am , SHOOT ME DOWN
I am just, just a man
So long baby , good bye money band,
YOU don't know what it's like,
Feeling like your life don't count,
THat's the way things seem to be ,
Back in America , Land of the Free

Someone's out there taking a bath,
with the money that was make fighting Viet Nam
Doesn't anyone yet care to know
The story in the light that it should be told
Hundreds of Thousands gave their lives
Blowin' someone elses smoke, someone else's lies
Doesn't matter whether we win or lose,
It's WHO pays for the game of greed the big boys choose.

Cavan Man

(01/27/2003; 20:16:05 MDT - Msg ID: 95910)

@MK, sector, Jim Sinclair et al (others too numerous to mention)

Thanks from the little guys. There is going to be pain in the form and shape of volatility. We are witnessing the calm before the storm. Hang tough lads. We'll make port safe and sound but only with confidence and metal for personal ballast. Tally ho.

Toolie

(01/27/2003; 20:32:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95911)

Factory Worker

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P29460.aspThere are a few good articles that you can go to from the above site. For what it worth, that is how I found my way here. I was looking for the reasons behind the gutting of our manufacturing sector. Those of us that work in manufacturing are the canaries in the coal mine of the US experiment with a global economy. We see the effects of the trade imbalance before say, a government employee, or some one working in the service economy. As I see it, The problem that the US faces now is that we export very little except dollars. That can't continue indefinitely. I also think that the fed is trying to gently lower the Dollar before we loose the ability to manufacture exports. Did you notice the location President Bush's economic stimulus speech? It was Chicago. I don't think that he was in office a week before he visited Detroit. Why these places? I suspect the multinational industries will pay him little more than lip service and use the "capitol formation" that he spoke of to build brand new factories in China. There lies the problem, a continued jobless recovery in the US. I see little choice for the fed to do anything but keep the Dollar falling until it forces a de-coupled Yuan. That to me makes the case for inflation and for holding gold.

Thanks to all here for helping me along and, welcome Factory Worker!

Cavan Man

(01/27/2003; 20:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95912)

For those of you from Cape Girardeau....

What guys like sector and Sinclair (specifically) are saying is the wise guys will continue to trade away as HMS SYSTEM continues to burn and then ultimately sinks. They'll leave that ship in golden life boats and will arrive safely on the next investment shoreline. Metal and gold in the ground "paid up" and not yet "dug up" will be will be the absolute winners IMHO. Personally, it's what I have always played for. For the less than sea worthy, buy metal only.(period).

Maverick1

(01/27/2003; 20:39:31 MDT - Msg ID: 95913)

@ Pizz...RE: shelf offerings

Your quote...
"The issuance of stock is the sign of a strong company, whereas ones that just issue debt weaken their financial position."
I have a different perspective on that.
Would it not be wiser to borrow money at these low interest rates for a year than it would be to annouce a dilution and have the stock drop in the same value in one day? Are you just assuming that all shareholders have short memories and the "soon to be shareholders" just won't bother to look into the company's history of shelf offerings?

Maverick1

(01/27/2003; 20:43:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95914)

correction

That should have read ...THAN have the stock drop

sorry getting late..

cyberbat

(01/27/2003; 20:44:15 MDT - Msg ID: 95915)

Steady as you go

I hope you folks out there will go full speed ahead without letting go of your paper. I'm heavy metal and paper and I'm not moving an inch when they send their warning shot across my bow. I'm going to hang tough. I've got to. I've waited too long for this moment (1983). Either I'm going down with my ship or sail in to golden harbors.
Come about mates and man your battle stations. If your in paper, buy on the lows with everything you've got along with the physical. HOIST the main sail!! Steady as you go...
Capt'n Cyberbat

Waterboy

(01/27/2003; 20:54:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95916)

Iraq War and Dollar Hegemony

http://www.indymedia.org/front.php3?article_id=231238&group=webcastThe essay at the link above augments and supports the two recently posted articles on preservation of dollar hegemony as the real reason for the oncoming war on Iraq and perhaps others.

Opening snip:

"Although completely suppressed in the U.S. media, the answer to the Iraq enigma is simple yet shocking - it an an oil CURRENCY war. The Real Reason for this upcoming war is this administration�s goal of preventing further OPEC momentum towards the euro as an oil transaction currency standard. However, in order to pre-empt OPEC, they need to gain geo-strategic control of Iraq along with its 2nd largest proven oil reserves. This lengthy essay will discuss the macroeconomics of the �petro-dollar�� and the unpublicized but real threat to U.S. economic hegemony from the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency."

The essay is a fairly long read, but reasonably well referenced at the end.

Genoo

(01/27/2003; 21:01:57 MDT - Msg ID: 95917)

Vancouver Gold Conference..glass half empty or half full...it's all in the perception as with all things is it not...

The conference reflected the feelings of the gold following community. On Sunday the outstanding feature was the incredible buzz of excitement of the crowd...of course by today this was discounted/taken for granted and if anything was even more prominent.

Today the most professional presentation was given by the Vp for Goldcorp...if you weren't bullish for gold and gold shares after that you had to be dead. I love this to be the guy talking to a roomful of brokers/analysts in NewYork who didn't have one share of a gold stock between them!!

But the highlight for me was when Murphy introduced his surprise guest speaker,Rich Powell. Powell painted an indelible picture of what is and what will happen with the gold price and why. This was a fierce rally the troops outcry, and truly an experience to remember.

For those attendees who perhaps were dissapointed with events: perhaps they need to remind themselves that we are but the diehard sliver of gold believers and merely the forerunners carrying the message of the coming gold boom.

Then after the GG and others presentation segment the Chairman offered a "vial of 24k nuggets for ten bucks" I got the third to last vial...making the memory indelible. Congratulations to Cambridge for a beautifully run conference!!!

Golden Bear

(01/27/2003; 21:31:37 MDT - Msg ID: 95918)

Genoo (msg#: 95917)

Hi Genoo,

your quote:

"But the highlight for me was when Murphy introduced his surprise guest speaker,Rich Powell. Powell painted an indelible picture of what is and what will happen with the gold price and why."

Was it Rich Powell or Chris Powell as guest speaker?

Cheers.

Black Blade

(01/27/2003; 21:34:53 MDT - Msg ID: 95919)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm
Snippit:

The Great Game

Like the 19th century, the great powers are jockeying for position in the Great Game for power and influence in the region. In this game, there will be winners and losers. France, Russia, and Saudi Arabia could end up being the clear losers if the U.S. is victorious. France and Russia are Iraq's top trading partners. Both Russia's Lukoil and France's Total Fina Elf SA have lucrative contracts to develop Iraq's oil fields. The Russian oil firm Lukoil has a contract to develop Iraq's Qurna field. Both countries have a vested interest in not seeing the status quo upset in the region. They both have much to lose if the balance of power were to shift in the Middle East.

Other powers would be greatly affected by a power change in Iraq. India and China both have contracts to develop Iraqi oil. The Turks and Kurds, both US allies, have staked claims on the oil in Kirkuk. Everyone knows that war is coming. The arguments and backroom negotiation going on now is simply over the oil spoils. The Russians, Saudi's, and the French have a lot to lose if the new government that replaces Saddam alters or doesn't honor the old contracts for development of Iraqi oil fields. Iraq's oil infrastructure is in disrepair because of more than two decades of neglect as a result of war and sanctions. It is estimated that it will take as much as $30 billion to rebuild Iraq's broken down infrastructure and modernize its oil facilities. Iraq has the second largest oil reserves next to Saudi Arabia. Once Iraq's oil facilities are rebuilt, Iraqi daily oil production could increase to 3.5 million barrels a day within two years. If cheap oil begins to flood the world oil markets, it would affect Russia and Saudi Arabia directly.

Black Blade: I have discussed most of these points in the past at one time or another. Puplava presents it well in today's Wrap Up. There will be clear winners and losers with a regime change in Iraq. It is in the best interest of France, Germany, Russia, China, Saudi, and several others to have a totalitarian regime in power in Iraq, whereas it is in the best interest of other like the US, Britain, Italy, Spain, obviously Kuwait, and any country dependent on "cheap oil". This article is quite a read that puts the impending war in perspective and why some nations are opposed while others are not. The issue has absolutely nothing to do with humanitarian aims against war but is purely economic even though few will admit it. Another good read for anyone who wishes to understand the complexities of the region is Daniel Yergins Pulitzer Prize winning book "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, & Power". This coming war is for "The Prize".

Black Blade

(01/27/2003; 21:53:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95920)

An economy in limbo

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/026/business/An_economy_in_limbo+.shtml
Snippit:

From owners of multimillion-dollar homes to unemployed single parents, we are a nation in waiting, grappling to come to terms with a new economic reality. While low mortgage rates are fueling a housing market that remains remarkably hot in a cool US economy, high-end homes are taking longer to sell by owners who are skeptical of those who contend a bubble may be bursting. Investors are abandoning the stock market, waiting on the sidelines for a rebound. Business owners are canceling investments in plants and new equipment. Even tourists are delaying weekend trips to see Broadway plays. And the victims of these delayed decisions, the nation's unemployed, are also waiting: The number of people who have been without work for 26 weeks or more is at its highest level since 1993. The economy ''is right at the edge. We're right at the stall speed,'' says Nicholas Perna, an economic consultant in Ridgefield, Conn. ''You put everything on hold,'' he says, and ''it's unsustainable.''

While it makes sense for any individual or business to pull in their horns when economic uncertainty arrives, this collective inaction only feeds on itself. ''Whenever there is uncertainty in the environment, the tendency is to hold back and see where the dust settles,'' says Robert Frank, a Cornell University economist who studies human behavior. ''There's a self-fulfilling aspect: If you're concerned demand won't develop, you don't build your plant, and if you and others don't build plants, there's less spending, and that's going to choke things off.'' So far, consumers have almost single-handedly pushed the economy forward in the face of war and uncertainty. Enticed by low interest rates, they have continued to spend, on cars, houses, and furnishings. But economists predict that the federal report on the economy, which will be released this week, could show growth slowed in the fourth quarter of last year to a 1 percent annual rate; some have forecast a contraction. If the most pessimistic forecasts prove right, consumer spending may no longer be enough.

Black Blade: I would not be surprised to see a negative GDP number myself. A lot depends on the "spin" as well. There could be an all court press to keep shaky investors in line with rosy forecasts in spite of how grim the situation appears. This week the major indicators to watch are: Fourth quarter GDP, FOMC bias, unemployment, oil and NatGas inventories. I don't expect too many bright spots myself.

Scarab

(01/27/2003; 22:04:42 MDT - Msg ID: 95921)

**** $ 377.6 ****

The most important influences are , imo, twofold: increasing physical offtake all over the world, for instance in China, and Japan, and the second reason is the ever widening circle of investment demand, coupled with decreased suppression by 'official sources'. I suppose that makes 3 , rather than 2 reasons. Whatever..

Black Blade

(01/27/2003; 22:11:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95922)

Bears growling more loudly

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={9A3F0142-5ED4-4656-8FAA-34E871E2234C}&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- That grinding noise in the stock market is getting more ominous -- right on cue for another respected bear. Thursday, I noted that Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell -- at 78, the king of this millennium's bear market -- was getting really unhappy. "Is the stock market on the verge of heading down and producing a series of 90 percent downside days?... when downside volume is 90 percent or more of up plus down volume, and downside points are 90 percent or more of up points plus down points... The decline from March to October never produced a single 90 percent downside day. That tells me that October [Dow 7,286.27] was not a major bottom, only a stop on the way down." As with Russell, Burke is one of what I rudely call "the geezers" -- editors who were around in 1974, at the bottom of the last bear market. "We think we may have seen the high for the year on Jan. 14," he wrote recently. "...Our belief remains that the October 2002 low will be broken sometime in the first half of the year, probably in May. We look for the summer low to be a good [???] one and followed by another, shorter term cyclical bull market." But note carefully -- Burke thinks 2003 overall will still be down. "The indicator went back to bearish for January, February, March, April, May (very bearish) and June 2003. Keep in mind that despite all the talk of an economic recovery insider selling is at about its worst level for 16 years."

Black Blade: It looks grim for other bears as well. David Tice, Bill Gross, and Stephen Roach among others see a longer term secular bear market. I am afraid that I have to agree. This bear market could last several years. I just don't see any signs of economic recovery anywhere. Another point is that any economic recovery will be dependent on abundant "cheap energy" and that era has past us by whether is was due to political reasons denying access to home grown energy growth and replacing decaying energy infrastructure or geopolitical events and growing competition for dwindling energy supply raising energy costs in a slow/no growth economy. The US economy (and global economy for that matter) is toast. In a word � "grim".

As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months' expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

ElGordo

(01/27/2003; 22:17:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95923)

Woodward: US to provide evidence Iraq has banned weapons

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52135-2003Jan27.htmlBy Bob Woodward
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, January 28, 2003; Page A01

The Bush administration has assembled what it believes to be significant intelligence showing that Iraq has been actively moving and concealing banned weapons systems and related equipment from United Nations inspectors, according to informed sources.

After a lengthy debate over what and how much of the intelligence to disclose, President Bush and his national security advisers have decided to declassify some of the information and make it public, perhaps as early as next week, in an effort to garner more domestic and international support for confronting Iraqi President Saddam Hussein with military force, officials said.

"The United States possesses several pieces of information which come from the work of our intelligence that show Iraq maintains prohibited weapons," Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said in an interview published yesterday in an Italian newspaper. "Once we have made sure it can be done safely, I think that in the next week or soon after we can make public a good part of this material."

ElGordo

(01/27/2003; 22:31:06 MDT - Msg ID: 95924)

Japan "emerging" from third recession?

Tranquility Base

(01/27/2003; 22:32:33 MDT - Msg ID: 95925)

*****$371.5*****

The next event that will impact the price of gold will be the build up to the probable war in Iraq. This will create a volatility in the gold market with the price depending on the prognostications in regard to:
-How long the war will last.
-The amount of destruction to the oil fields.
-How long the US will need to occupy Iraq.
-World opinion of the US and US dollar before, during and after the war.

I would like to add that although I have an advanced degree in the biological sciences; I feel like a true freshman at this illustrious institute. I am in awe of the talent that I observe here each day and will gladly assume my position as 'a mouse in the corner'. Hey that would have been a good handle!
Thanks to all.

Tranquility Base....here. The eagle has landed!

balzac

(01/27/2003; 22:37:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95926)

HEDGE FUND SHORTS

James Sinclar @tan rangeJim Sinclar says that as spot gold is being bought by hedge funds
gold mine shares are being shorted simultaneously , which explains why when the spot market goes up the shares lanquish.
A good example today was RGLD.

He claims hedge funds are the culprits. They expect to sell gold between 381 and 386 & then buy back their shorts when the market falls, hence making money both ways.

He suggests shareholders ask for their certificates to stop the
hedge funds who are borrowing their shorts from electronic
share transfer companies. The critical timing event being the Iraq War.

What say all you brilliant minds to this possibility.

Balzac

Gandalf the White

(01/27/2003; 22:44:29 MDT - Msg ID: 95927)

WELCOME Sir Tranquility Base !!!

Tranquility Base (1/27/03; 22:32:33MT - usagold.com msg#:
===
Do pull-up a chair at the TableRound and join the discussion -- you will fit in well with these GOLDHEARTS !
Many here have graduated from the "School of Hard Knocks" !
<;-)

Trojan

(01/27/2003; 23:13:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95928)

@ Waterboy Re: Your Message # 95916

Thank you very much for supplying the link. I took the time to read the article. It is very eye opening.

What is your opinion on the article ? Is it accurate in it's analysis or is it more speculitive in nature?

If even 75% true it really speaks volumes on how twisted the world we live in is. But then again looking at the lack of Free Markets in Gold until recently. The article makes you really think of the possibilities that Oil and the Dollar are the Game.

If War is started against Iraq without UN approval All H**L could break loose with regard to Euros replacing Dollars as the OIL MONEY Currency.

Again, thanks for posting the article and your comments to my questions would be appreciated.

Genoo

(01/27/2003; 23:17:46 MDT - Msg ID: 95929)

Correction

RE message #95917

Thanks Golden Bear..Of course it was the "GATA" executive Chris Powell who told the story as only a gata-man could.

canamami

(01/28/2003; 00:09:47 MDT - Msg ID: 95930)

POG down $4.30

eom

ElGordo

(01/28/2003; 00:11:43 MDT - Msg ID: 95931)

Analyse this

Hsinchu, Taiwan, Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's No. 1 supplier of made-to-order chips, posted an unexpected profit decline in the fourth quarter as more than a third of its plant capacity was unused.

Net income fell to NT$2.6 billion ($75 million) from NT$4.5 billion in the year-ago quarter. That compares with the average NT$4.9 billion profit forecast from a Bloomberg survey of five analysts.

Galerider

(01/28/2003; 00:24:51 MDT - Msg ID: 95932)

GOLD SLIPPING SOME

All the metals down at this point. Time to buy on the dip! The Japanese markets down. Noticed on yesterday's U.S. market, the bonds slipped even as the equities slipped. First time I remember seeing this in a while. Have a good night everyone. Look forward to the scrambling later in the markets after GW's speech.

balzac

(01/28/2003; 00:33:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95933)

THE PHANTOM SHORTS

Is it possible that the DTC is allowing phantom shorts and not really being able to detect which shares are real and those that are phantoms.

An interesting possibility ,which goes along with JIM Sinclars
thoughts on the shorting of paper gold. If the Phantoms exsist
then there will never be a short covering rally. They are just made with the click of a computer key by the brokerage house and the willing acceptance of the
DTC. Who really keeps count of a mining companies float.

Help me with this.

Balzac

Black Blade

(01/28/2003; 00:35:30 MDT - Msg ID: 95934)

Market Indicators

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures higher, USD higher, Gold lower, Oil and Gas higher, and grains lower. Apparently the street assumes that an attack on Iraq is to be put off until late in the year for some reason. So stock indices are bouncing higher along with the USD. Wall Street investment houses are saying that there will be an extension to the weapons inspection process. Gold is taking a hit on the stronger dollar, but interestingly petroleum is moving higher in spite of shrinking inventories. Oil and gas may be moving higher on word that the Venezuelan strike is no closer to resolution and that dropping reservoir pressure assures that there will be a permanent loss of over 400,000 bbl/day oil regardless of the strike outcome as marginal wells are simply lost. Overall it looks like an "entertaining" day on Wall Street when the market opens.

- Black Blade

Mr Gresham

(01/28/2003; 00:59:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95935)

Balzac: Phantom Shorts

Hmmmm...Another good reason for having whatever you buy close at hand, in hand. Imagine if you were one of those who turned out to have bought a thousand non-existent (or twice-sold) shares? I suppose if you asked for certificates, and they sent them to you, then that would mean someone else would get left holding the bag?

Ponzi, musical chairs, MLM, Special Purpose Vehicles; haven't we got enough signs how the game is played? (Boy, if any situation ever called for offshore SPVs, it's this one. Disposible entities.)

Belgian

(01/28/2003; 01:15:36 MDT - Msg ID: 95936)

@ waterboy : Independent Media Center ! Bravo !

Great for having communicated "THE" link. The word is out...at last, and I only can say "VOILA" !
Thank you Sir waterboy for having it """ all """ nailed, with a big, dry bang.

The past 30 years of M.E. turbulence have reached the beginning of a conclusive phase... It all started 50 years ago with the state of Israel.

EVERYTHING about the geo-political events (HISTORICAL_PRESENT_FUTURE), must be seen against the background of 2 currencies ($-�) fighting over the back of Arabian oil with military and Golden weaponary. How friendly will this competition remain ? This worries me the most, the more it will come to the surface !

Allow me to say it for the last time that...The very *complex* Gold-management is solely in function (and progress) of the above gigantic struggle. A devaluating dollar, struggling to survive, the challenge of its long awaited competitor, the euro.

Amen.

Mr Gresham

(01/28/2003; 01:17:11 MDT - Msg ID: 95937)

Euro article: pessimistic

http://upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20030127-054526-8389rMartin Hutchinson's Bear's Lair. Still, if aging European populations start to drain the social welfare systems, against a currency that hasn't promoted prosperity, then what form will people likely start saving in, and very soon?

The Invisible Hand

(01/28/2003; 01:39:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95939)

At what time is Bush speaking? 18 hours usagold standard time?

BREAKING NEWS from CNN.com Europe:
- British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw says Iraq is in "material breach" of U.N. demands.
==
Belgian,
Does the Waterboy article also refer to gold?

Farfel

(01/28/2003; 01:48:24 MDT - Msg ID: 95940)

Comments on James Sinclair's latest Gold Thesis

At this point, I am conversant with the majority of gold analysts and have followed Sinclair for some time.

He is an old timer who certainly knows a lot about the micro-machinations of the gold miners, especially as pertains to their respective hedge positions.

HOWEVER, with all due respect, I consider his macro-analysis regarding hedge fund positions in gold and mining stocks to be entirely conjectural and entirely wrong. Although there might be several funds utilizing a "long gold, short gold stocks" strategy, I severely doubt that this is the case across the entire Street.

Based upon my analysis, I see a concerted ongoing effort by major Wall Street interests to cap both gold and gold mining stocks, at virtually any and all cost. In that respect, I do subscribe to Sinclair's view that a good deal of mining stock shorts are now occurring on a NAKED basis.

The most recent COT reveals commercial players holding a 100,000 plus net short position in gold futures. The major Wall Street players are shorting gold and shorting it to the max.

On the other hand, if one were to examine the OTC market, I would suggest that gold's recent ramp job is occurring via the concerted efforts of major FOREIGN spec players, maybe a consortium of foreign billionaires or foreign funds targeting the gold sector and utilizing the bullion bank traders as proxies for their purchases. It is these well-funded foreign big specs who are in a position to tackle the commercial players with a good deal of success and WITHOUT fear of negative political repercussions from a US Establishment that remains gold-unfriendly. If I am correct, then there is simply NO target price in gold bullion currently high enough to put a cessation to the big foreign purchases occurring the back of expanding open interest.

Meanwhile, hardly a single notable analyst on Wall Street has gold stocks on their radar screens.

Only recently, Goldman Sachs fired its own gold mining analyst for alleged lack of investor interest in that economic sector.

In the most recent Barron's Roundtable report, only two contrarian analysts provided recommendations for gold stocks: Zulauf and Dr. Doom (Marc Faber). So, between Wall Street's continued fear of gold stocks and the Street's reported huge increases in gold stock shorts, it is safe to say that Wall Street is pulling out all stops to cap the gold stocks' rise this year.

The reasons are manifold and self-evident:
If gold stocks were to put in another 200% plus YTD in 2003, then they would become a lightning rod for funds in the stock, bond, and real estate markets.

Who in their right mind would continue to bet on low yield Microsoft of Cisco or Oracle or US Treasuries or 10 year bonds or Arizona real estate if gold stocks can return 200% + per annum on an ongoing basis?

So the hedge funds are bent upon suppressing gold stocks, demoralizing gold investors, and forcing capitulation by focusing upon gold's weak short term performance instead of its most impressive, sterling, medium term performance over the past two years.

It is a flagrant war upon gold and gold stocks because the entire gold sector in aggregate is a very low capitalized sector in which relatively small inflows can send it into sheer verticality. Moreover, the greatest propellant to the verticality, aside from potential inflows into the sector, happens to be the astronomical uncovered gold short position currently held by the bullion banks.

Wall Street fears gold, always has, and always will. A sustained, long position today in either gold or gold stocks by the Street , given the tremendous risk posed by its aggegate physical gold short position, is simply unfathomable.

The Invisible Hand

(01/28/2003; 02:06:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95941)

sorry Belgian

your post answered my question.

Chris Powell

(01/28/2003; 02:12:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95942)

GATA reports from Vancouver

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1399GATA reports from the Vancouver Resources
Investment Conference, and GATA Chairman
Murphy gets interviewed by a really big U.S.
newspaper.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Mr Gresham

(01/28/2003; 02:17:00 MDT - Msg ID: 95943)

Waterboy: Wow!

http://www.indymedia.org/front.php3?article_id=231238&group=webcastQuite the catch! Never thought I'd read someone who could out-FOA FOA.

Pre-empt OPEC going Euro, by occupying a major OPEC member. Euro bloc's countermove, is to (threaten to, then) topple the Dollar. We're probably seeing the Shot Across The Bow now.

Belgian

(01/28/2003; 03:29:23 MDT - Msg ID: 95944)

@ Sir Gresham

If we combine your UPI-article on euro-weakness and waterboy's INDYmedia on the euro's strenghts...Isn't it more "clearly" understandable *what* is really going on in the politico/financial-economic-monetary, arena !? Today's Dow-futures, up 100 points, in no time, after yesterday's implosion of the same 100 points ! How can we possibly get ANY kind of grip on what is happening in the ultra-complex and enigmatic Gold-Affair. This surpasses the brightiest of minds on the topic. All those different "currents" and counter-currents, big and small, that are constantly affecting POG.

Waterboy's article is not referring to *Gold*, because of the specific left-"corner" it has been publisched. This doesn't mean that the next, unconnected dot, isn't Gold !
It is the next dot !
Today, an ING-analyst, bluntly stated to invest (speculate or gamble) in Gold - Oil - Euro ! This with a + 100 Dow-futures in the background. NIA here but simply reproduction of other's thoughts. Nothing but DEBT without any PROFITS is our only choice. The confetti era has run its course.
Sorry for getting carried away.

My only conclusion remains firmly : FOLLOW THE *MAJOR* GOLD TREND ...up...UP...UPPPP !

Golden Bear

(01/28/2003; 03:33:24 MDT - Msg ID: 95945)

Farfel (msg#: 95940)

Sir Farfel,

excellent comments on the current state of the "Gold Wars", thank you for your valued insights.

Regards.

Pete

(01/28/2003; 04:48:15 MDT - Msg ID: 95946)

Farfel (1/28/03; 01:48:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 95940)

http://www.indymedia.org/front.php3?article_id=231238&group=webcastHello Sir Farfel. I hope you are feeling well? I picked this up at JPM yahoo board. I believe as this article postulates that the real war is the dollar versus the euro. The POG is just a consequence of this war. The article is lengthy but well worth the read.

Bono fortuna Sir Farfel

"Although completely suppressed in the U.S. media, the answer to the Iraq enigma is simple yet shocking. The upcoming war in Iraq war is mostly about how the ruling class at Langley and the Bush oligarchy view hydrocarbons at the geo-strategic level, and the overarching macroeconomic threats to the U.S. dollar from the euro. The Real Reason for this upcoming war is this administration�??s goal of preventing further OPEC momentum towards the euro as an oil transaction currency standard. However, in order to pre-empt OPEC, they need to gain geo-strategic control of Iraq along with its 2nd largest proven oil reserves.

This lengthy essay will discuss the macroeconomics of the �??petro-dollar�?? and the unpublicized but real threat to U.S. economic hegemony from the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency. The following is how an astute and anonymous friend alluded to the unspoken truth about this upcoming war with Iraq...

�??The Federal Reserve's greatest nightmare is that OPEC will switch its international transactions from a dollar standard to a euro standard. Iraq actually made this switch in Nov. 2000 (when the euro was worth around 80 cents), and has actually made off like a bandit considering the dollar's steady depreciation against the euro.�?? (Note: the dollar declined 15% against the euro in 2002.)

�??The real reason the Bush administration wants a puppet government in Iraq - or more importantly, the reason why the corporate-military-industrial network conglomerate wants a puppet government in Iraq - is so that it will revert back to a dollar standard and stay that way." (While also hoping to veto any wider OPEC momentum towards the euro, especially from Iran �?? the 2nd largest OPEC producer who is actively discussing a switch to euros for its oil exports)."

Pete

(01/28/2003; 05:09:52 MDT - Msg ID: 95947)

Mr Gresham (1/28/03; 02:17:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 95943)

OOPS! Sorry about giving credit where credit is due. I humbly apologize for my mistake.

ANOTHER & FOA, IMHO were correct on the trade of oil for $ & a little gold. The question is has OPEC cornered gold with this strategy to the point that the Wests strategic reserves of gold are nearing depletion?

We know or should know of certain Arabic nations fascination with gold and their desire to trade oil for a stable currency(Reason for demanding a little gold in the 1st place because of dollar's continuing devaluation). This is a gigantic chess move by these powers to replace the dollar with the euro as currency of choice. Who will eventually win? IMHO, it's anyone's guess. All I know is "Those that own the gold rule & those that own "ALL" the gold rule "ABSOLUTELY!"

Leigh

(01/28/2003; 05:16:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95948)

Waterboy's Article

From Paragraph 7:

"The following is how an astute and anonymous friend alluded to the unspoken truth about this upcoming war with Iraq."

Hmmmm....What's FOA been doing lately?

Hipplebeck

(01/28/2003; 05:23:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95949)

currency wars

What's Bush going to do when the UN has their 350 inspectors spread around Iraq with a UN mandate to stay?
If they refuse to leave, can the bombing start?

Hipplebeck

(01/28/2003; 05:45:18 MDT - Msg ID: 95950)

gold

I can tell by reading that there is a lot of anxiety by those holding shares in mining companies, and I can tell you as one who just holds bullion, there is no anxiety here.
To have possession of the metal takes away all the stress.

Maverick1

(01/28/2003; 05:51:07 MDT - Msg ID: 95951)

Hipplebeck

There is no doubt in my mind that all the UN inspectors can be removed by helicopter in a matter of minutes when the word is given. I would not used the presumption that they are still working as a reason the bombs won't fall. It will be another story if they are held hostage but war will be certain then anyway.

Dollar Bill

(01/28/2003; 06:00:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95952)

aslkdfjla;f

Can you guys just email your political ideas to each other?
The subject is economics and gold.

Dollar Bill

(01/28/2003; 06:10:25 MDT - Msg ID: 95953)

the black knave bill murphy

From gata's latest rant, their very limited understanding of our global economic system.

"We have
explained how the greater purpose of this market
rigging is the imperialism of the U.S. dollar and
the criminal expropriation of the developing world."

MoonHowler

(01/28/2003; 06:47:06 MDT - Msg ID: 95954)

*****$369.8*****

The next event that will greatly impact the price of gold will be the consistent drop of the value of the US Dollar and the ever-greatening tension in the Middle East (ME). Peoples fear on how long this "War on Terror" will last and where it will go after the ME will drive more people into one of the few investments that truly gives you financial security�. GOLD!!! This swarming of new investors worldwide will continue to drive the POG up. Best guess when the POG will break $400 is by February month end.

Hipplebeck

(01/28/2003; 06:53:41 MDT - Msg ID: 95955)

Maverick1 (1/28/03; 05:51:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 95951)

My point is that they may choose to stay if the UN doesn't sanction war. I did not mean to imply that they had no way to get out in a hurry. I'm sure they do. What if the UN votes to give the inspections more time? Will the US force the UN out of Iraq?

Socrates964

(01/28/2003; 07:14:22 MDT - Msg ID: 95956)

Waterboy/the Euro

Assume that President Bush is successful in invading Iraq and prolonging the hegemony of the U.S. dollar. Is this hegemony not apparent rather than real? In particular, just as central banks lease out their gold and keep these reserves on their books in nominal terms, what is to prevent the same central banks from leasing dollars which are then dumped on the market to buy bonds denominated in other currencies. The whole gold leasing game was based on the premise that the gold price would be held down � given the need to print gigantic amounts of dollars to prevent an implosion of the US financial system (most likely through its real estate market) � a dollar carry trade seems like a one-way bet. In this way, central banks would �securitize� the dollars ostensibly on their balance sheet.

It seems to me that the argument about prolonging US$ hegemony is based on a fundamental confusion between the concepts of �a currency as a means of transaction� with �a currency as a store of value�. Currencies that have been subject to hyperinflation will always be bought or sold for current transactions, but everyone who uses them is perfectly aware that they are inherently rotten and will do everything in their power to exchange any surplus holdings for some asset that holds its real value, or even to borrow in them.

Griffon5

(01/28/2003; 07:23:01 MDT - Msg ID: 95957)

Buttressing Farfels Contention

I would agree with Farfels contention that they will use every and all tactics to keep gold, gold shares, silver, silver shares,from seeing any light of day. look at last weeks wall street Journals, Nary a word regarding gold. This, in a week where gold showed substantial strength. While not a conspiracy buff, this is so blatant it borders on desperation and can not be ignored. In my opinion, their hope is, to just keep a lid on this until after the war starts, thinking, this is the only factor in the rising gold price. Speaking of which, do you see the pattern in talking points many of the Wall street types use " the gold war premium." What this all boils down to is the financial communities looking out for their best interest. When gold goes up it is bad. If gold continues to go up, people migrate towards it at the expense of stocks bonds and various other financial insturments. It also sends a very load message. The message is, we do not have confidence in you, hence, we will vote with our action. Gold to the financial types is like showing the CROSS to DRACULA.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/28/2003; 07:37:55 MDT - Msg ID: 95958)

Ally yourself with a gold broker that is knowledgeable and also cares...

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

newsletter

ABCs book Take note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

Leigh

(01/28/2003; 07:49:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95959)

A Gold Broker Who Cares

MK, I was just thinking about this very thing the other day. My stockbroker doesn't keep a website open (at his own expense) to learn his clients' deepest thoughts and concerns. And if he did (he wouldn't) he certainly wouldn't monitor it at all hours, giving us the benefit of his ideas and insider conversations. My kids' music teachers don't give two hoots about what the future holds and how best to protect their little clients. The management of Target (or any other store I can think of) doesn't want to educate us on protecting our money! (They want us to spend it!) I can't think of ANY OTHER business I deal with that has expended so much on its clients' behalf.

Thank you!!

Max Rabbitz

(01/28/2003; 07:53:45 MDT - Msg ID: 95960)

Hello Sir Belgian

Your European point of view are always welcome and interesting. However, I fear the middle east problem is deeper than the existence of the State of Israel. As Europe's native population age and Islamic immigrants increase I see the terrorist threat/intimidation increasing. Europe will become a vassal to the oil powers, trading technology for warmth and comfort, temporarily. This is why I would rather hold gold than Euro's. Americans are not the only people who have sought Empire. Don't the French still have a little one in Africa? Are not their troops still in the Ivory Coast supporting the pro-French faction? Will the French African Franc be tied to the Euro?

The following is taken from the Gartman News Letter.
Dec 4, 2001. ON THE POLITICAL FRONT.

Whether we care to admit it or not, there is a cultural war growing between the extreme islamic groups (including Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Abu Nidal, Fatah and countless others) and the West's Judaeo-Christian orientation. Sadly, that seems to be the direction of the present circumstance, and we point to to comments made in his Islamic Declaration by the former President of Bosnia, Mr Alija Izetbegovic, who is also the author of "ISLAM BETWEEN EAST AND WEST". Izetbegovic said in this Declaration that:

" The first and foremost... is surely the incompatibility of Islam and non-Islamic systems. There can be no peace or co-existence between the Islamic faith and and non-Islamic societies and political institutions....Islam clearly excludes the right and possibility of activity of any strange ideology on its own turf. Therefore, there is no question of any laicistic principles, and the state should be an expression of and should support the moral concept of the religion...

The Islamic movement should and must start taking over as soon as it is morally and numerically strong enough to not only overthrow the existing non-Islamic [regime]. but also to build up a new Islamic authority....

It is the natural function of the Islamic order to gather all Muslims and Muslim communities throughout the world into one. Under present conditions, this desire
means a struggle for creating a great Islamic federation from Morocco to Indonesia, from tropical Africa to Central Asia.

....These are not new laws of our new Islamic politics towards Christians and Jews, not new laws dictated by the new political situation. They are the practical conclusions taken from the Islamic recognition of Christians and Jews which come straight from the Qu'ran."

We are stunned to read of such statements from a man whose country the West came to the aid of against Serb oppression under the regime of Mr Milosevic. Is this really what the world has come to? Was Samuel Huntingdon in his seminal work "THE CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS", really as "spot-on" as it now appears? Was/is the West with its history of moderation and inclusion, naive in its relations with Islam? Is Islam, as we have been taught and truly want to believe, a religion of peace, or is it Izetbegovic's religion: one of exclusion, militarism and incompatibility? Where, we ask, are the moderate Muslims whose voice seems to be no longer heard and whose lack of voice is forcing the moderates on the other side to become vocally more and more extremist..

We shall state, once again that we have been (and we shall continue to be) open supporters of a free and sovereign Palestinian state, however, the fanaticism and the terrorist activities of the extremist Islamists has done much to reduce that support to the point of virtual non-existence.

Jon

(01/28/2003; 07:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95961)

numerical designation for US$

Your INO. Com table reflects 99.51. How is that computed? Is it a comparison to a basket of other currencies. Would appreciate any info. Thanks.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/28/2003; 08:00:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95962)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

Q. How does USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals position itself among its competitors with regard to credibility, reputability and pricing?

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/28/2003; 08:04:30 MDT - Msg ID: 95963)

International clients: Please take note of our new toll free Int'l phone numbers

http://www.usagold.com/phone.htmlFrom New Zealand to the Netherlands, from Australia to Austria, from the British Isles to the Great White North, we offer the service you want and the professionalism you need.

Let us help you with your next gold order.

We are pleased to pass along what our European clientele have been telling us -- that our pricing is superior to most of their banks and brokerage firms. Further, we support and encourage delivery of the gold while our competitors primarily promote certificate programs. With USAGOLD - Centennial you'll get a good price AND GET what you pay for!

sector

(01/28/2003; 08:04:59 MDT - Msg ID: 95964)

@ jon Here is the link to the Fed's Dollar Index definitions page

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/Summary/You can also get the text data there, daily or monthly if you wish.

The basics are that the dollar index comes in several flavors as it is compared to major, all, G-10, etc. currencies.

Mr Gresham

(01/28/2003; 08:39:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95965)

Leigh

Ditto that. It's not "just business." I'm not sure people know just what to do with that -- they're so used to being treated the other way.

But a deep current of ethics, and probably more, founded this site, and runs through it.

sector

(01/28/2003; 09:04:59 MDT - Msg ID: 95966)

Adding [Hopefully] to Farfel Lucid AM Piece

Sinclair thinks the falling shares are part of a hedge fund hedge......long gold and short shares [if they are wrong about gold rising].

It's a plausible view but only a tiny part of the picture...a picture that Farfel has in better focus.

Go back to early 2002. The gold shares ran fast and high ahead of the metal until July. This action smacked of trading house "hot" money...money from Fed repos most likely. The Fed can influence how that money is spent by dropping hints. Like "Stay away from gold shares". It's as easy as cake for the Fed. So the hot money ran cold as the Fed bopped pog per the Strong Dollar Policy Manual.

The overarching factor driving this rally from $316 is a new shift in goals at the Fed. They have secretly dropped the Strong Dollar Policy. They are managing the gold price upwards and haven't told anybody yet.

This up move is occurring on a straight-line basis using the PM fix as a metric. Markets don't move in straight lines for 49 days now. The new R^2 regression value for this latest move from Dec 4, 2002 through yesterday is .8994. This number means that there are very few excursions away from a straight slope from Dec 4th 2002 $316 to today's $370. A value of 1.0 is an exact line upwards.

Because it has been dominant for so long, the Strong Dollar exhibits a shadow effect. Folks think it's still here. Guys...t's dead. And that means gold is being allowed to rise in a manged fashion...by the Fed...of all groups.

So why are the coms so short and why are the hedge funds still shorting gold shares? The Fed doesn't mind if these allies keep implementing the Strong Dollar Policy by smashing gold shares and shorting the metal. The Fed and their acolytes at the G-10 just can't do it any more. So we see the remnants of an army of gold shorters without the Fed and G-10 as the main force.

Why does the Fed want gold to go up? They want to stop selling gold because they have already sold [Loaned] too much 16,000 tonnes] and gold is going up now because the only force previously acting against its rise was the sale of official metal. They took their foot off gold's neck.

The "Signal Failure" that Bill Murphy speaks of is here, now. The big Fed army has left but the dopey hedgers don't know it yet. They didn't get the message...the signals failed. They keep shorting shares oblivious to the fact that the Strong Dollar is a propped-up corpse instead of a real entity. The gold share shorts are being set up to get killed in a gold stampede.

The bullion banks [JPM has by far the most at stake] will escape because the Fed has "Donated" the gold they used to short the metal. JPM's CEO Harrison keep pathetically shouting to the world that the $41 Billion in gold derivatives carry no risk for them. Of COURSE they have no risk. The Treasury gave the gold to JPM to use to hammer gold on the open markets...JPM and Harrison just can't SHOW THE FREAKING MEMO without confirming to the world the reality of the gold scam.

That gravy train of metal in the form of loans and swaps to JPM stopped on Dec 4th when the Strong Dollar died. Gold will keep rising because the buyers from all over the world know a bull market when they see one. They know an exhausted seller [The G-10] when they see one and they most of all know on sight, a Western economic abyss. Continued Fed, Treasury and G-10 resistance to this reality in the form of continued gold sales has been deemed to be...futile. Time for a retreat.

The war fog is to provide an excuse for rising gold...not falling gold as the Wall Street straw men postulate. And here we have perhaps the biggest opportunity in many many months in the shares for a very big short-covering rally is right around the corner. Bill Murphy's signal failure is here.

On Dec 4th 2003 the world learned for the first time that the G-10 had loaned half their gold in this latest gold war battle. The "Checkmate" Commentary at http://www.goldensectant.com.

The Strong Dollar is DEAD and the G-10's loyal hedge fund, gold-share shorting troupes don't know it.

JCTex

(01/28/2003; 09:05:23 MDT - Msg ID: 95967)

Leigh (1/28/03; 07:49:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 95959)

Great observation; and he has earned the pat-on-the-back from all of us that have traded with him.

silvergolong

(01/28/2003; 09:07:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95968)

***** $374.40 *****

The short-term driver of the price of gold is simple: war. The President will have to make a decision one way or the other very shortly. Once we are beyond that, the tale will be told by how the dollar fares. But of course, over the long run, all the usual things that we've discussed will have their way with the POG: debt, deflation, inflation, and most of all, the relentless decline in fossil fuel stocks, both above- and below-ground.

Cavan Man

(01/28/2003; 09:12:24 MDT - Msg ID: 95969)

How to get there? (i.e. "Strong Dollar)

Guns, Butter, Printing presses, Derivatives, or Gold
Washington, Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration supports a strong dollar and will pursue policies to raise economic growth, said U.S. Treasury Secretary-nominee John Snow, whose comments helped the currency rise against the euro for the first time in 11 days.

``I favor a strong dollar,'' Snow said in text prepared for today's confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee. ``A strong dollar is in the national interest''

Snow continues an eight-year policy of Treasury secretaries praising a robust dollar for luring foreign investors and creating stability for traders and Federal Reserve policy makers. Manufacturers had campaigned for a change, saying a strong dollar has hurt their exports and forced job cuts.

``A strong currency provides a reliable medium of exchange and serves as a stable store of value that people choose to hold,'' said Snow, who was chairman and chief executive officer of No. 3 U.S. railroad CSX Corp. when President George W. Bush nominated him. ``Sound, pro-growth economic policies and a commitment to free and open markets are the foundation for a strong dollar.''

Dollar Bill

(01/28/2003; 09:44:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95970)

Peter Warbuton analysis of credit market

"If the reader will grant the legitimacy of expressing global credit trends in global currency, the implications for global economic growth are striking. If ever proof were required of the dominance of the credit cycle over the central banks, this is it. On the basis of global purchasing power, credit and debt growth have slowed sharply despite determined central bank efforts to loosen credit conditions. The tide of bond market speculation that carried the US dollar to its early-2002 highs has begun to ebb and, if an extension to the Treasury bond bull market cannot be manufactured, then a depreciating dollar will reinforce a corporate credit crunch. The OECD's timid downgrade of its global economic growth forecasts (to 2.2% in 2003 and 3.0% in 2004) scarcely qualifies as a concession to the credit argument. It is a million miles away from an understanding of the gravity of the situation.

Prospective corporate borrowers can expect to find themselves engaged in guerrilla warfare during 2003, waiting for incidental opportunities to raid the markets for funds, or to hold up the banks for a loan extension. Ultimately, this restrictive quantitative regime will give way to a reawakening of the credit pricing mechanism and, inevitably, much higher yield spreads and risk premiums in bank lending. The acceleration in bond issuance � even of junk bonds � in early 2003 is not a denial of the tightening of credit conditions. It is proof merely of the lack of confidence among borrowers that this facility will be available later."

sector

(01/28/2003; 09:48:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95971)

The "Snow" Job on the "Strong Dollar Policy"

He chimes in at the Senate...right on cue.There are only two ways to support a Strong Dollar.

That is to create and maintain a strong economy OR to sell gold.

Half of the G-10's gold has been used up so it's going to take more than a "Snow" job from a new SECTREAS designate to convince the other members of the G-10 to keep powring their gold down the rat hole of a US economy.

We shall see.

Arcticfox

(01/28/2003; 09:51:47 MDT - Msg ID: 95972)

"Texas Hedge"

Guest just talked about buying bonds and gold into the foreseeable future on CNBC. Times are a changing....

balzac

(01/28/2003; 09:53:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95973)

PHANTOM MINING SHARE SHORTS

SectorI subscribe to your posn on the FEDs shift away from the strong dollar, however the fact that the hedge funds are shorting the shares, in some cases with more shorts than there are issued shares, is a cause for concern.
If the companies floats are being exceeded by phantom shares
from electronic multipliers,because the DTC HAS NO CONTROL, this will certainly have a supply and demand effect on the price.

Balzac

Arcticfox

(01/28/2003; 09:56:26 MDT - Msg ID: 95974)

I forgot to mention

that CNBC guest said that all major currencies need to devalue (more printing) to pay off huge debt that is out there and all the currencies require something to devalue against and that would be AU....

SWEET 16

(01/28/2003; 09:59:59 MDT - Msg ID: 95975)

****372.7****

Gold will be searching for direction at the end of the month and this price will be agreeable between the "cartel" and the buyers. Not too hard, not too soft - just right for this Goldilocks.

SWEET 16

sector

(01/28/2003; 10:07:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95976)

Soros warns against weak US$

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/sub/premiumstory/0,4574,70918,00.html?

It will hurt world economy despite helping US exports

(DAVOS) Billionaire investor George Soros said yesterday the US dollar's slide to multi-year lows against major currencies would have a negative impact on the global economy despite making US exports more competitive.

Mr Soros: said a quick victory in Irag will help

He also told a news conference at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos that a quick victory over Iraq that spared the Opec members' oil fields would do more to remove uncertainty and boost economic output than any tax cuts could.

The greenback's retreat amid fears of a US-led attack on Iraq 'is more a sign of weakness than a potential strength', he said.

'It means other countries still have to keep selling to the United States because that is where the market is. They will just have to sell at lower prices, so it will have a negative effect on the rest of the world. It will be a relief for US companies but not for the global economy.'

+++++++++++++++
Maybe Mr. John "Snow" Man should tell the rest of the world about the Strong Dollar support he has in mind.

The trend lines belie a continuation of the Strong Dollar Policy.

@ balzac Let them short...when gold doesn't come down...they will cover.

As for the DTC being out of control that may be true for today but there are many new "Spitzer Cops" running loose on Wall Street these days to bash errant brokers and bully firms. They will get caught.

Gandalf the White

(01/28/2003; 10:12:30 MDT - Msg ID: 95977)

OK SPOT, TIME to start JUMPING !!! <;-)

Tis HIGH NOON in NY, GO get 'em, SPOT !
<;-)

(01/28/2003; 10:16:39 MDT - Msg ID: 95978)

Kind Comments, the Walmart "Greeter" and the Revulsion Stage of a Bear Market

On a day in which the Financial Times runs two very important stories shifting the American mainstream penchant for blaming everything on the looming war to Wall Street's problems and corruptions, some very nice people say some very nice things about our firm. It's a two way street. Good clients beget a good firm; a good firm begets good clients. Maybe that's the difference with us. We see you as gold "clients" not gold "customers." We intend to be in it with you for the long run. I have to laugh at the Walmart greeters -- a new phenomena sweeping the corporate culture. So nice. Now they greet you sweetly at the door before they leave you on your own, and this is their answer to faceless, souless corporate America. The megacorps see us as fools. And don't we all, nice people that we are, smile back and wish them a good day as well? We move along thinking somewhere in the back of our minds: Do they really think that's going to change my opinion of this operation? It used to be the owner that greeted us at the door in that small hardware store, pharmaceutical, or shoe store. Now it's a retiree looking for something to do and being paid minimum wage (not to take anything away from that industrious retiree).

Oh yes, those two stories in the Financial Times:

1. "Casting a Shadow on Capitalism" in which John Plender's new book ("Going Off the Rails" is excerpted as follows: ". . .[T]he whole culture of Anglo-American finance is increasingly subversive of regulation, taxation and democratic values, even where it remains within the law." Enron is featured. Here is the most interesting point made: ". . .[T]he Anglo-American system has moved from being one where accountability runs from management to outside shareholders towards a novel form of insider system controlled by managers who have ever-increasing ownership rights, thanks to stock options." And I might add, a magnificient exit strategy assiduously planned the day he or she takes the job and signs onto that options agreement.

Note: And by a Byzantine methodology isn't that where that "Greeter" comes from?

And. . .

2. "Investors Fret Over War in Iraq, Oil, Deflation. But the Underlying Malaise is the End of the Cult of Equities" in which Phillip Coggan writes: "The slide in global financial markets appears to be driven not by fundamentals but by a headlong retreat from equities as an asset class -- the revulsion stage of a bear market."

Note: I like that. . . "the revulsion stage of a bear market." One of the things that Jonathan has brought to the organization from the business school at the University of Notre Dame is some statistical methodology we've never employed here before. He has been keeping statistics correlating USAGOLD business activity to market events. His findings are interesting. We get the most inquiries for information packets (including initial call-ins) not when the gold market is rising or falling, but the stock market falls. This folds nicely into Coggins' observations. (Randy Strauss, our illustrious sitemaster, predicted that this would be the case, and he was right.)

In any event, the Financial Times (lamenting the DJIA's fall below 8000) boils it all down to a simple statement which appears (believe it or not) on page one:

"Analysts said investors were either staying out of the market or selling stocks and moving into the traditional havens of government bonds and gold."

We can vouch for that. Jonathan's charts are on the rise. Congrats to all of you who boarded the train early. And thanks to all who support these pages with your gold purchases at USAGOLD~Centennial Precious Metals. It is you who nourishes these pages. Thanks also to all our fine posters. You make this place special -- a place where gold owners and advocates can get informed, stay informed and even play a role in shaping the world investment scene in the years to come.

And thanks again, Leigh, JCTex and Mr. G, for the kind comments.

Humble Pie

(01/28/2003; 10:18:28 MDT - Msg ID: 95979)

******$402.10*******

I feel the next inportant event in the Gold Saga will be the comex declaring that all contracts are for cash settlement.Reason being there is not enough cash gold around to fufill the contracts.This market was never meant to satisify Hedgers with the actual Gold ,but to hedge a price .

sector

(01/28/2003; 10:58:10 MDT - Msg ID: 95981)

****$370.6****

The Strong Dollar is DEAD -- Long Live the New Golden King

The Traveler

(01/28/2003; 11:14:27 MDT - Msg ID: 95982)

@Aristotle #95804 and Trurl #95890

The US$ is miles beyond the point of no return. In short order, it will implode from its over leverage and America's "exorbitant privilege" will be revoked. The forced lifestyle adjustments Americans will endure (expensive energy costs to name but one) will cause political and economic turmoil for decades. Get ready for the coming welfare state and massive wealth redistribution to the masses. The socialist left is counting the days until they can declare VICTORY! (economic equality for all and the death of individualism).

The tools that the Fed / USG have at their disposal are inadequate and are delaying tactics at best.

Fed holdings of 8,140 tonnes (260 million ounces) is $11 billion at the official rate of $42.22. This of course assumes that the USG's gold is unencumbered (see FOA on pre-1971 claims by foreign CBs) and is still in the USG's possession (See Turk, Murphy et.al. for suspicions about SDR certificates, "deep storage" gold, swaps and other official tricks of the trade to support CB sales). Let's assume it is all there.

Re-valued at $600 per ounce, Federal Reserve gold holdings would be a mere $156 billion against M-1 liabilities of $3 trillion (or M-3 of $11 trillion). Re-institute Sinclair's gold cover clause of a nickel of gold (5%) for each Federal Reserve Note in circulation and $3.1 trillion of M-1 is covered. Without lowering the cover percentage or buying more gold in the open market or "directly" from mines in the US (or calling in its legal tender gold eagles for $50 of FRNs), how will the currency grow sufficiently to service the debt-berg of America? This debt currency has leveraged itself with upwards of $40 trillion in present claims against it! Add contingent claims backed by the "full faith and credit" of the USG, and the total claims can never be paid in the original purchasing power lent (see my post #88379 on 10/29/02 for the FED's final solution).

Compared to the Euro (also a debt currency) which effectively has a 15% cover clause and an economy that (1) generates a net trade surplus (as opposed to America's trade deficit of 5% of GDP - $450 billion annually), (2) pays a higher nominal and REAL interest rate on its sovereign debt than does the US, and (3) is significantly less over leveraged given its young life than the US$, why would any sophisticated investor willingly hold the US$?

As I first posted on 1-10-03 @ #94029 (before Marshall Auerback's article of Jan 14, 2003 and when only two carrier task forces were publicly said to be assigned to the theater of operations), the current geo-political drama is all about maintaining the hegemony of the US$. Yet this drama also provides America's creditors an opportunity (excuse / cover) to "re-balance" their US$ holdings. The rise in the POG and other commodities and the decline of the US$ will thus only accelerate over the days and weeks to come as the currency war and oil war heats up.

Please note: I am not a Euro fan or its shill. I am simply a pragmatic capitalist.

Are you giant-like yet?

sector

(01/28/2003; 11:29:49 MDT - Msg ID: 95983)

@ The Traveller -- A Hint at the Fed's Action Plan...

...Deval the currency in circulation by......not redeeming all of it in exchange for the "New" paper.

Stay tuned.

Zhisheng

(01/28/2003; 11:30:16 MDT - Msg ID: 95984)

Up into the close!

Rear-guard action to defend $370 REPULSED.

The Traveler

(01/28/2003; 11:55:14 MDT - Msg ID: 95985)

@Sector #95983

Agreed! Except expect two NEW US currencies once the current greenback implodes. One will be created for domestic use and it will have peso like qualities and wealth preservation performance. The international $ will be gold backed (15% cover or better!) and it will be quarterly marked-to-market (a la the Euro).

Thus with certain Euro advantages nuetralized, the currency of choice for a pragmatic capitalist or central banker will be determined more by non-economic issues such as military might. America will still need to import 10 million barrels of oil daily (7 million after rationing is implemented) and would have the power to take the oil if the new international $ was shunned. Thus the current object lesson in the Middle East.

The GOOD news for physical gold advocates is that both currency blocs will treat gold as their friend and push the fiat price to Jupiter.

Are you giant-like yet?

Belgian

(01/28/2003; 12:03:17 MDT - Msg ID: 95986)

@ Max Rabbitz # 95960

Allow me to reflect only partially on your thesis as to not walk away from the main topic, Gold, and running the risk of inciting unnessecary polemics. Go back in history 1930-1950 and check who (AND why), wanted this Britisch protectorate-territory (Palestine-land), to become the state of Israel. It had nothing to do with any desire of the jewish people (holocaust-victims) for a state (at that moment). The British empire was the one who designed the *artificial* borders of the present Arab states in the whole Middle East. This was done under the "divide and rule" theory with the intention of assuring the then already known massive oil-reserves and their future importance. Oil was already highly valued, then and responsible for our entire, present, prosperity.

How it evolved later (and at present) is mainly he result of what was purposely predestinated / engineered, then.

Today, the globe, must remain convinced that oil never was, and is, at present, the main reason for so much human suffering and hatred. Religions, land, water etc...must be percepted, by the general public, as the main obstacles for peace and prosperity (development) in the ME. As far from the truth as can be ( cfr. the crusade-outcry by GWB)!

It "still" is the "fundamental" of huge cheap, qualitative Arabian oil, now needed more than ever, by all of us but most urgently by the dollar-currency, that is the main drive for the events (all derived events).

Yes Max, indeed, the French do the same, for instance in Africa (cocoa-imperialism) ! Yes, all French departments d'outre mer, are on the euro as are many other African nations (ex-colonies). None of their currencies is even worth the paper it is printed on. cfr. Gold-plunder (sorry) at present in Tanzania (in voque). Black Gold going straith to India and China !!!

Euroland knows very well what the heritages are of colonial rule. That's why we have another view on the ME-policies.

As ordinarry, simple citizens, we fortunately possess that quality of naivety. We simply believe, what *they*, the rulers, wish us to be believed. Most of the time, the very fundamental motives remain tactically hidden and are denied with great indignation and fanfare.
The Britisch ambassador to the Netherlands, almost jumped on the table, when asked a question about the oil-motives, in a recent debate on Iraq ! So typical.

Talk nonsense, and as a messenger you will be admired and praised...tell the hard truth and the messenger will be killed at once.

No Max, it is NOT the "clash of civilizations"...IT'S THE OIL, SIR ! And with the oil...the dollar-currency and highly probable, GOLD ! Full circle. Thanks.

No, Euroland and the euro are NOT the holy Virgin, Maria...but we learned some very good lessons and are determined to use them for our benifit. Let's look together how it will work out.

GoldnSilver2002

(01/28/2003; 12:12:21 MDT - Msg ID: 95987)

Once again gold confirms but shares dont

I believe many of the gold shorts are in the gold camp.Last night many warned of a correction at the cambridge conference.Sure enough the shares,which still havent caught up with gold went down.Where did gold go ...up!Everyone at last nights confernce who warned of this correction is now seen as a buffon to me.They warn their clients to sell into waiting hands.Whose hands?Theirs!They know we are in a major bull but want the stocks cheaper.Oh oh gold is only at 370 better sell those shares,lol!Bob bishop and bill murphy are right,a lot of these guys will be left on the sidelines,having sold before the oncoming gold rush.I made a note of who recommended what,anyone who said we expect a correction now,will be scratched off my list.Beware people the enemy is in our own camp.They tell you to sell as gold continues to climb.

Cavan Man

(01/28/2003; 12:15:05 MDT - Msg ID: 95988)

Economic Pillars(?)

1. Consumer spending/Consumer confidence

2. Housing starts/sales (spending)

3. Mortgage re-financing (spending)

4. Productivity (myths)

Foundation needs work.
PS: In the industrial heartland of the homeland, we are getting creamed.

Trojan

(01/28/2003; 12:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 95989)

*****$378.3*****

I don't see the President's speech tonight saying much new. War is only being delayed as the troops get into final position. The US dollar should continue to weaken and I was quite impressed how gold fought it's way back from $365.75 around 2 AM to close over $370.00 even with some quiet on the War front news and the US dollar holding and the Dow up around 50 points.

Thursday as the War debate resumes in the UN and Blair and Bush meet at Camp David on Friday should get the War fears going again.

Gold should continue to rise.

Daniel Druff

(01/28/2003; 12:51:58 MDT - Msg ID: 95990)

The Long Gold / Short Gold Stocks Strategy

Hints, Facts, and Conjecture
When a Federal Reserve Board member casually mentions "printing presses" to a prestigious economist's club, followed a few days later by The Chairman beginning a speech extolling the gold standard's price-stability-benefits while having previously mentioned the possibility of The Fed "buying gold mines", a prudent investor must consider the possibility that our monetary masters are considering a new monetary system. At the very least, they are signaling "out of the box" thinking.

The Long Gold/Short Gold Stocks Strategy is using leverage against yourself...unless you have reason to believe that your government is planning to nationalize the nation's gold mines.

Personally, I think that's a great idea as long as they don't try some unconstitutional maneuver like the gold confiscation move of FDR. And I really don't think they will in that China, of all nations, is allowing their citizens "the right" (gag me) to own bullion. Also, they can certainly turn on the printing presses without breaking a sweat inorder to buyout the shares at a reasonable price. After all, we are capitalists!

Better get physical, soon, real soon!

Thank you

Magister Aurelius

(01/28/2003; 12:53:46 MDT - Msg ID: 95991)

Re: what the Fed might do

I have been thinking about this for awhile now, and I may be wrong. (So please feel free to tell me so) But just from my basic Economics courses from college, I think that the Fed really is trying to ease carefully into a metallic backed currency and just can't pull a fait-accompli overnight. Inflating the money supply is a double-edged sword for the banking industry, by which, I mean your corner bank, credit union and lending institution. Inflation allows the repayment of debts with "cheap" money. This undercuts the banks earned interest from loans made with older "dear" money. Thus, in order to turn profit, the banks need to make more loans with "cheap" money in order to generate the same profit as loans made with "dear" money. But as more loans are made, even more need to be made to cover profit and interest. Eventually, this cycle of lending has to stop because the return on the "cheap" money loans is so miniscule that the currency becomes meaningless. At this point, the debtors are in a serious bind. Because now the mountain of debt accumulated in "cheap" money must be paid off in "dear" money, since the currency was continually devalued due to monstrous debt. This is where the angry lynch mobs by torchlight show up.

The Fed cannot afford this scenario to happen. This would mean a global currency crash and odds are, the dissolution of the United States into several smaller regional republics and the Soviet State of California. What the Fed will do is gradual metallic currency conversion. Converting to a gold cover clause would still be a tremendous shock to a debt laden consumer base. The social upheaval would be intense. But in the near term, silver is still considered stable and affordable. The Fed could reinstitute the silver dollar and then have time to begin conversion to a gold cover clause for international payments. Either way, gold and silver would get an enormous boost from remonetization. Anywho, I could be wrong. What doth the panel think?

Black Blade

(01/28/2003; 13:02:19 MDT - Msg ID: 95992)

Brown's sale of the century cost Britain $1bn in lost reserves

http://www.thescotsman.co.uk/business.cfm?id=108312003
Snippit:

GORDON Brown's decision to sell off more than half of Britain's gold reserves in the midst of one of the worst slumps in gold prices in living memory has cost the country more than $1 billion in lost revenues. The loss - equivalent to �739.9 million at yesterday's prices and exchange rate - came after gold prices soared by more than 15 percent in the past 60 days. The �739.9 million lost by the Chancellor in a series of transactions between 1999 and 2001 could have paid for two Scottish parliaments, 200 primary schools, 60 secondary schools or six state of the art hospitals. It could also have paid for 40,000 nurses, 45,800 police officers, or 9,411 average Scottish homes. Instead, the money has disappeared into the pockets of gold traders who took advantage of prices that were dented by the sudden influx of hundreds of tonnes of UK government gold.

Michael Howard, the shadow chancellor, said: "The British taxpayer is hundreds of millions of pounds out of pocket thanks to Gordon's golden fleece. So much for Prudence." The amount lost in the sell-off could be higher because further losses were incurred converting the proceeds into euros. Those losses have been calculated at up to �50 million. The Chancellor's decision to sell off 395 of the country's 714 tonnes of gold was driven by a desire to invest 40 per cent of the proceeds in euros to help stabilise that currency, which was struggling against the pound and the dollar. Critics also suspect the move was part of a plan to get rid of the pound because European Central Bank rules demand nations sell the bulk of their gold reserves before they can join the euro. But a Treasury spokesman said: "The sale of the gold which the UK completed over a period of years was part of a long-term investment decision. The intention was to restructure the portfolio to reduce risk and as such the success or failure of that decision has to be judged over the long term."

Black Blade: I hope that Gordie doesn't have any political aspirations or is looking forward to a lucrative career in finance. He's not exactly the most intelligent bipedal hominid. Hey, perhaps he and Paul O�Neill can hang out together and have their own show following CNBC's "Kudlow and Cramer". Hmmm�

davefinger

(01/28/2003; 13:02:46 MDT - Msg ID: 95993)

Belgian

Indeed, it is all about the oil. That so many either can't or don't want to see this amazes me. Especially when it has been stated by the Vice-President himself:

"Policy Review: It is now two years after the spectacular victory of the United States and its allies in Desert Storm. What objectives were achieved during this war?

Cheney: The best way to evaluate Desert Storm is to consider what the world would be like today if we hadn't fought and won this war. If we had taken a pass on Saddam's occupation of Kuwait, by today he would have the eastern province of Saudi Arabia and would sit astride about 50 percent of the world's oil reserves, which he could control directly when you add up Kuwaiti, Saudi, and Iraqi oil reserves. He'd be able to dominate the rest of the reserves in the Persian Gulf. And he'd have nuclear weapons. We had to stop this from happening. And we did."

Notice the nukes are clearly a secondary consideration. Further down:

"P.R.: You got out of Iraq without going all the way to Baghdad. Are you worried that Saddam Hussein is still in power today?

Cheney: I'd rather he were not in power, but I don't see him at this point as a threat to any of his neighbors. In that part of the world, I'm more concerned about Iran. Saddam is unable to sell oil; without selling oil, he can't generate the revenue he needs to rebuild that military machine we destroyed. The Iranians aren't faced with that situation; they have access to the world's markets, they are selling oil, and they are using some of that revenue to regenerate their forces and expand their capabilities. For example, they're buying diesel-powered submarines and MiG-29s from the Russians.

Long term, we have to be concerned about both Iran and Iraq. The Gulf is going to be an area of vital interest to the United States for at least a hundred years. We have to remain actively involved there -- supporting our friends in the region, trying to promote stability, and responding to threats whenever they arise."

The full interview can be found here.

How and why America is utilizing it's military force to secure it's interests in the Middle East is one of the most important topics of our day. It bears directly on our nations economy and as a result, our preciousss gold and how we interact with it. If I thought for a second that the US was engaged in a nearly purely moral conflict a la WWII, then fine, I wouldn't be mentioning it in this forum. It's not a purely moral war though, or even a largely moral one. Morality is present, but is a sideshow to the real action in the politico-economic arena. The future of US relations with the entire globe will be affected by this. Having gold sure makes me sleep better at night when thinking about all that, relative to how uneasy I would be if America were simply taking out an evil and murderous leader of a relatively small nation. And the rest of the world would likely say, 'eh, go ahead', unlike the international miasma the current exercise is becoming. Would the world have cared if we had taken out Pol Pot? Nope, and we wouldn't have been talking about it much here either.

White Rose

(01/28/2003; 13:04:01 MDT - Msg ID: 95994)

The Fed gradually re-moneratizing things?

Here are my thoughts:

The current leadership seems only to try to manage a few days at a time. How else to account for being blindsided by the UN, Venezula, and North Korea in the space of a month or two?

Is there enough silver to do anything but put it in a museum?

I am hard pressed to understand the advantages of trying for a slow process. Why not move quickly once you know what Greenspan wants to do?

Magister Aurelius

(01/28/2003; 13:18:12 MDT - Msg ID: 95996)

Re: your last post White Rose

On my part, I have been moving quickly. I only make about 26 thousand in fiat per year, so my gold buying has been a replacement of what I would put in a savings.. basically enough to buy a tenth or two here, a quarter ounce or two there. But I've bought both gold and silver. And I don't accumulate debt.

The reason I suggested the Fed might be taking a slower course, is because of the mountain of debt accumulated by the consumers of the US. Imagine everyone with a mortgage facing the possibility that they owe lets say $100000 on a typical mortgage, borrowed in fiat money, on a 30 year mortgage. If the currency were to suddenly be converted into a metallic currency of high or "dear" value like gold, then the debts would have to be adjusted to the new currency or consumers would be in default and there would be massive foreclosures. A wave of newly homeless people made homeless on a stroke of a pen make for an extremely violent and unstable political situation.

Mr Gresham

(01/28/2003; 14:09:09 MDT - Msg ID: 95997)

Wow!

Great discussion on possible new currency directions.

davefinger -- I don't think I've ever seen the oil strategy overview stated so well.

factory worker -- For a newbie, you captured all of the big questions we go over here. I'll just give you a musical hint, that came on the car radio as I was moving certain items from one place to another. Steve Miller: "Go on, take the money, and run. (Woo -- woo -- woo!)" And Stevie Winwood: "When you see a chance you take it..." Hope you, and some other fine recent ex-lurker additions, enjoy whatever time you choose to spend here!

(Oh, and as for the inflation/deflation question, why, that's EASY! It'll be Inflation in the things we need to BUY, and Deflation in the things we're trying to SELL! I think it was called Stagflation for awhile in the 70s. I remember a lot of rusty cars driving around, and lots of hitchhiking. ;-)

a nation of one

(01/28/2003; 14:09:35 MDT - Msg ID: 95998)

Reply to CoBra(too) (1/27/03; 15:32:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 95885)

You write: "@ a nation of one ... SO?!... or better, let me know the essence of your latest post -as I'm probably too dumb to figure it out."

--I cannot do anything about this.

a nation of one

(01/28/2003; 14:12:38 MDT - Msg ID: 95999)

Reply to canamami (1/27/03; 16:19:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 95889)

You write: "...I suspect that if things started going nuclear/bioterror, etc. in a big way, humanity would revert to the animals pretty quickly. Gold, as a tool for civilized men to save and exchange, would probably not be useful."

--Even during these times gold would be thought useful by some, and they would seek to obtain it. It would still serve very well as a universal form of exchange.

Old Yeller

(01/28/2003; 14:18:45 MDT - Msg ID: 96000)

What's the real story,oil or WMD's?

Imagine a currency crisis in the USA.Now,the US imports
over 10 million barrels of oil per day,that's currently
about 320 million dollars per day,every day.This oil is
an intregal part of the US "lifestyle".A lifestyle they so
richly deserve,as the President reminds them continually.

How can you reconcile a currency crisis with this
unalterable reality?

"The real problem is that there are certain goods that
are relatively inelastic on importation-such as oil,that
would continue to drive up the C/A deficit in the face of
currency depreciation.This is the Argentina/3rd world
problem.This leaves the government no choice but to
confiscate oil overseas to make up for a more massive
C/A deficit."

B.Parady,longwaves forum

There you have it,is this the American model of
freedom and equal opportunity for all?

I guess if you're American,it is.

Everyone else can just steal their own oil,fair and
square.

Just try it though,360 billion in "defense" spending
by your rival steepens the odds of your failure.

Go to Plan B,pre-emptive strike on the dollar by buying
all the physical gold you can with your rapidly diminishing
dollar "reserves".

It's a race against timelines now.

Thanks for your thoughts,FOA.

Belgian

(01/28/2003; 14:21:38 MDT - Msg ID: 96001)

Don't let Gold ever *** BACK *** any currency !!!

Gold-Exchange-Reserves ARE Reserves and do NOT *BACK* any currency. Any *reserve* is an asset that is suitable for currency-management (weakening or strengthening).
Hard labor, resulting in valuable output of goods and services is a monetary asset and backs any currency that represents this labor-results. The dollar-reserve-currency is (was) an asset that serves currency-management but is backing nothing anymore.

US Gold-Exchange-Reserves (8,125 tonnes), priced at 42$ or 370$ aren't BACKING all those trillions of dollars.
This fractional, 8,125, tonnes-reserve cannot "back" many trillions of dollars (coins-notes-digits) when these gold- reserves are priced manipulatively low. These gold-exchange-reserves, at present prices, can only be used to defend the dollar exchange-rate for a very short time and then even only in theory (swappiedap etc). Because as soon as the globe should realise that some of this tiny amount of fractional goldreserve would effectively (physically) be used...sold...shipped (a la pr� 1971)...the dollar would immedeately be trashed, completely... because there is no possible backing and the tonnage-reserves don't represent a thing at these low prices.

How can a total of 30.000 tonnes of CB, Gold-Echange-Reserves, possibly back, the total amount of currencies that this reserve is supposed to represent...back ? This totally unproportional at present POG.
Therefore currencies are to be managed with other tools.
And the goldreserves can only be used for management in a *negative* spiral : lower POG is stronger dollar ! More dollar-creation needs much lower POG again to make (hold) that currency strong. Simply because the present Goldreserves aren't "backing" their currencies.

FREE PHYSICAL GOLD ONLY is the dynamic for a positive spiral in the management of a currency with gold exchange reserves. The other currency-tools will become secondary in such an environment.

The euro doesn't want to be *backed* by Gold exchange reserves ! The euro wants Gold as a Wealth-Asset, functioning as reserve that is freely, adaptively, priced, in function of the currency's worth.

The definition (notion) of *backing* is the reason (opportunity) for permanent fraud and mis-management.
"Backing" a currency with fixed (managed) prices for little fluctuating amounts of physical Gold-reserves is an illusion (great pretender).

That's why this ridicule paper goldmarket must be stopped !
You can't *back* plenty of nothing (fiat) with almost nothing (little gold lowly priced).

How can the same amount of 30,000 tonnes CB-Gold at ever lower (equal) prices be conform in backing explosively increasing amounts of confetti-units ??? That's why Gold will set FREE !

White Rose

(01/28/2003; 14:26:04 MDT - Msg ID: 96002)

Re: Magister Aurelius msg#: 95996

I agree that paying back debts with expensive money is very painful. But will this process not be even more painful in the future if the present situation is left alone? The debt mountain is growing every hour. The tempations to borrow for useless or silly things grows. Why not lance the boil now? If Greenspan wants to do this, what advantage is there to delaying things?

My favorite example: buy a Coke at a supermarket. Pay by credit card. Drink the Coke in seconds. Refinance your debts so you can spend 30 years to pay for that Coke.

Old Yeller

(01/28/2003; 14:33:08 MDT - Msg ID: 96003)

The word failure in the previous post

Should read success,only one nation is allowed to steal
oil,enforced through the barrels and explosions of many ultra-sophisticated weapons,paid for by previous frauds.

The weasel words for theft in this case are "rebuilding
Iraqi infrastructure,in exchange for oil".

Which,conveniently enough,was destroyed by the brave
liberators of the enslaved Iraqi people.

Hipplebeck

(01/28/2003; 14:43:41 MDT - Msg ID: 96004)

Is gold already free?

Of course it is.
The only thing that is holding gold at it's current price is man's perception of it's value.

At any time, any one of us who has the cash can go to their commodity broker and buy as many long contracts as they want, and declare for delivery.
If you buy enough, it will break the bank and show the rest of the uneducated people out there how little there is.
Perceptions would suddenly change, and the dollar or euro value of gold would skyrocket.

It is not gold that is unfree. It is confused perception that is unfree.

Yellow Metal

(01/28/2003; 14:45:51 MDT - Msg ID: 96005)

**** $369.7 ****

I guess I'll just nudge myself in between MoonHowler and Truthcaster. Hello. Excuse me. Is this seat taken ?

Like all here I spend a lot of time (no doubt wasted) watching the sometimes tedious movements of the charts. Today there are no answers from this pastime so I'm just taking a seat at the table to humbly wait for the service to begin.

I'm getting the feeling that this last couple of years in the markets have been all about beating up on the miserable peons who dare to think they can profit by it. I don't think the market in paper gold is likely to be any different with a retraction coming soon and I expect that once sufficient numbers have been drawn in they will be fleeced once again. The patient ones will be quite satisfied by year's end however I suspect.

Belgian

(01/28/2003; 14:51:51 MDT - Msg ID: 96006)

@ Davefinger

Let us simplify the ME-oil-dollar affair as much as possible : Yes, the ME (Saddam and others) wants to possess terrifying weaponary, already for a long time. Simply because, they want *to price* "their" oil as they wish !
Think deep about the original significance of the OPEC *** CARTEL *** ! The cartel, evolved and changed !

For how long can the oil-cartel remain a "cartel" as such with the accompagning pricing-power ? Saddam wanted to give the cartel, extra power, with the weaponary of "HIS" choice ! He played a double-crosser with the West for decades. The ME...Arabian oil, has changed its mind and wants to play its own, less western, oil-games.

So many states have nuclear weapons. But they don't have that amount of "VITAL" oil to defend with those nukes.
The day that the ME has a nuclear bomb...we can whisttle after their oil !

Voila, that's the core problem and the West is divided ($-�) on how to tackle this problem.

Does this make sense to you ?

Paper Avalanche

(01/28/2003; 15:06:33 MDT - Msg ID: 96007)

Bifurcated US Dollar

The idea of having a bifurcated US$ is a difficult concept for me to grasp. While I understand the concept in general, I cannot imagine how it could be implemented outside of a completely totalitarian state. What is to prevent arbitrage among people free to travel in and out of the US? This leads me to the realization that part of the WOT was deisgned to consider this contingency. Specifically I am referring to the posting of the military at every airport, boat port and border crossing. The question becomes... are they there to keep the terrorists out or to keep me in? I fear that I already know the answer.

See you at the camps.

Paper Avalanche

Magister Aurelius

(01/28/2003; 15:07:37 MDT - Msg ID: 96008)

Re: White Rose

You are correct. I agree that it is better to correct the problem now. I'm not at all certain Greenspan is of this mind though. I was stating the case that Greenspan would NOT act quickly based on the immediate political fallout that would occur. After all, this would explode the myth that The Powers That Be know all and act benevolently on behalf of the sheeple.

I do have a question though. What effect at a community and local level would such a move, ie, returning to a gold standard, have? What would it look like?

Black Blade

(01/28/2003; 15:15:22 MDT - Msg ID: 96009)

Gold climbs atop US debt mountain

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256CBC00531A99?OpenDocument
Snippit:

JOHANNESBURG � The new year has seen gold smash through long held price and investment records; bullion is perched at seven year highs and the 6.77 million ounce net long position of speculators on the New York Commodities Exchange � the �longs� are betting on a rising gold price � is the highest since February 1996. There are as many explanations offered for the rise in the price of gold as there are commentators, although imminent war in Iraq and a terminally weak dollar are the two most prevalent rationalizations for the good fortunes of bullion. If indeed, the prospect of an all-out war in Iraq is the primary driver behind the gold price, some punters fear an end to rising tensions in the region will cause an almighty crash in bullion. A weak dollar, however, could prop the price up for some time to come as the currencies myriad structural weaknesses are worked out of the system.

Radical monetary meddling aside, the current macro-picture for the US economy is dire. Low cash into mutual funds by the general public spells poor local demand for equities and the situation is compounded by overall poor corporate performance, which remains unattractive for foreign investors in the US stock market. The inability of Wall Street to attract decent cash inflows will place still more pressure on the ability to finance a soaring current account deficit, which is threatening to crush the dollar.

Black Blade: It's a dollar story with a geopolitical kicker.

Belgian

(01/28/2003; 15:18:23 MDT - Msg ID: 96010)

@ Hipplebeck

I do remember very well, stupid me, asking your same question (remark), about Gold being Free, at FOA ! Oh boy...did I had some work to do with his answers on this fundamental aspect of the gigantic Gold-Management !

Now I know how "UNFREE" Gold really is !

It took me thousands of hours of intense A/FOA study. Yes, thousands !
Right,...I'am a very slow learner ! But not ashamed about it as long as I'm making some little progress at least ?

*UNFREE* Gold is in fact the red tape through the whole of A/FOA's thoughts and insights. Yes, the paper-gold construction business is indeed a very subtle form of "chaining" Gold ! Almost as perfect as the illusionary perpetum mobile.

Are you really a Free man, dearest Hipplebeck ? Free men are lonely men...very lonely, indeed !

Golden Bear

(01/28/2003; 15:20:42 MDT - Msg ID: 96011)

Mr Gresham (msg#: 95997)

"..(Oh, and as for the inflation/deflation question, why, that's EASY! It'll be Inflation in the things we need to BUY, and Deflation in the things we're trying to SELL! I think it was called Stagflation for awhile in the 70s. I remember a lot of rusty cars driving around, and lots of hitchhiking. ;-)..."

Hi Mr G,

Your condensation of the inflation/deflation dilemma is masterful. When TSHTF, that is exactly what will happen. The masses will go back to acquiring what they will need for survival, and the luxuries of lifestyle will be viewed by most as extraneous... Argentines are an obvious example.

Bravo.

Black Blade

(01/28/2003; 15:38:23 MDT - Msg ID: 96012)

Goldman's Paulson Sees No Upturn; May Cut More Jobs

BlackBart

(01/28/2003; 15:48:23 MDT - Msg ID: 96013)

****381.2****

The price of gold will continue to inch up, steady but slow, because the masses, even those who should know, have either not yet awakened to the depth and breadth of the crises we face. War is only one of them, but a huge one. Most still have hope that it will all turn out all right, whatever that may mean. The real impact of massive unemployment has not yet been felt. The body bags (US) are as yet empty. Very few have acknowledged the massive shortages of potable water which are growing in this country as well as somewhere around 26-27 other countries. And, as realization grows that the corporate criminals who have stolen hundreds of billions of dollars from the very people who sweated to make them rich will go free thanks to the complicity of our top law enforcement officials, there should be increasing disenchantment with paper markets and phony retirement options. I could go on but, suffice it to say that the house of cards is collapsing and even the benumbed masses will run to the traditional places for safety.
Black Bart

The Traveler

(01/28/2003; 16:31:57 MDT - Msg ID: 96014)

@Belgian #96001

In deferance to you, I amend my post #95985 to say ... The international $ will be gold covered (15% or better)and it will be quarterly marked-to-market (a la the Euro).

My point remains that both currency blocs will want gold to rise persistently so that they may expand their respective currency base. As THE reserve asset (gold) goes up, so may the liabilities of the CB (currency in cirrculation). Given the nature of the electorate, I am perplexed to think of a situation in which either central bank would implement a policy to shrink its currency base and thereby watch the Free Market POG decline.

As a PGA, this is fine with me. I will still seek to be wealthy in gold rather than rich in paper.

Note however the illusion of a sound currency (either one) is still in effect. Say what you will, both would remain young but suspicious fiats that are subject to the demands of the electorate. But that is for the next generation to sort out.

Are you giant-like yet?

Genoo

(01/28/2003; 16:59:55 MDT - Msg ID: 96015)

*******$373.00*******

There is no way out for the commercial shorts this time around IMHO [ #92444 }. Apparently the ounces of gold that are short exceeds the ounces of gold available on the Comex. This is according to an expert on silver who presented at the Vancouver Gold Show two days ago. The central banks, having already leased half their gold, appear to have no more gold to lease in order to maintain a cap on the price. This detail appears to have escaped the attention of the shorts who are merely reacting by reflex to what must seem to them to be simply another easy kill on the market, something to which they have become very accostomed. As this information oozes it's way into the concious mind of the shorts, the gold price squeezes upwards. No one knows when Murphy's gap and jump in price will come...and it could be this week. However because my wish is that the rise in spot is sober with backing and filling along the way, I will chose what I believe to be a sober number.

Quite separate from the above is the fact that Dubya addresses the nation tonight...the ripples from that stone hitting the water/tv screen/markets will be profound.

canamami

(01/28/2003; 17:03:47 MDT - Msg ID: 96016)

Reply to the Traveller

But where is the requirement to limit Euros or dollars in circulation to the available CB reserves (gold + hard currencies)? If such a requirement exists for the ECB, then I could see the power of that aspect of the FOA thesis. Further, the attribution of market value to gold reserves would then be vitally important. (Traditionally, changing the deemed per ounce value of a country's gold reserves was of great significance).

Daniel Druff

(01/28/2003; 17:12:39 MDT - Msg ID: 96017)

Paper Avalanche

The Bifurcated US Dollar
Greetings, Paper Avalanche:

What is the Bifurcated US Dollar and how does it work?

Thank you

Trojan

(01/28/2003; 17:15:19 MDT - Msg ID: 96018)

Re: Waterboy's Message # 95916

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0301/S00151.htmThe Internet is GREAT. It is also IMHO one of the most important developements in our lifetime.

For those faithful readers of this GREAT Forum who might not have read Message # 95916 posted by Waterboy, please click on the Link above.

One additional point for those who read the article on "The Real Reasons For The Upcoming War In Iraq" you will Note that the Link above is a different one than posted by Waterboy last night. This particular site is a good source of Unique News on things that have some effect to the Economy, via GeoPolitical news and other related topics. In this case Oil, the US Dollar and the Euro.

I started this message by saying the Internet is GREAT.

My point being look how the same information that we read has now spread to a WHOLE NEW GROUP OF PEOPLE around the World.

Imagine a Government in an Arabic Country, North Korea, China Etc... having access to the same Information. Before the Internet this was Not possible.

One last point. In the Link above the Text has been edited and cleaned up and is in a easier format to read.

Thanks again, Waterboy for bringing it to our attention Via the USA Gold Forum's attention.

And THANK YOU USA Gold for this great service that you provide to the Gold Community.

misetich

(01/28/2003; 17:20:20 MDT - Msg ID: 96019)

Treasury Nominee - First "Snow" Job - Strong US $ Policy

misetich

(01/28/2003; 17:24:58 MDT - Msg ID: 96020)

EarthLink to Close Call Centers, Cutting 1,300 Jobs

Mr Gresham

(01/28/2003; 17:26:58 MDT - Msg ID: 96021)

Signs (and wonders?)

A very profitable run just now. Next to the road I spotted, and picked up first one nickel, then another. Now I'll always have two nickels to rub together. No worries, mate!

Then I go out for coffee and a magazine on the newsstand has the article "You'll never be able to retire" (aimed at 30-somethings). Not very good explanations, but looking just at the demise of SS, of course that's one concern. Projecting the macro decline of USD supremacy, no one gets near considering in magazine-land (except the recent Business Week, maybe)

But with 30 years (of peak earnings, whatever that will be) to go, I think the 30-somethings have a better chance at pulling off some kick-back time than the Boomers now headed for a future of visiting "Senior Employment Agencies."

Rule 1. Save.
Rule 2. Save the right stuff.

Max Rabbitz

(01/28/2003; 17:29:32 MDT - Msg ID: 96022)

Belgian, Thanks for your response

Oil is indeed the prize and divide and rule was the British way, although the King did not get everything he wished for and a few headaches along the way. However, none of this excludes the "Clash of Civilizations" that began long before oil was valued. Superstorms are made by the merging of multiple weather systems. It appears to me that the western tide has now turned towards the east and a new power with different values will emerge. Values such as unquestioning obedience to authority. I fear the Euro and Europe will end up serving it and not the other way around. Oil will be the master as world reserves decline. This would be the end of the western world as we have known it. However, the Catholics say despair is a mortal sin. It denies the existence of things not seen.

My heritage is European and I have a good sized chunk of my old retirement investments in Euro bonds, as the best option provided in the plan. Take care of my bonds Sir Belgian or I will move my funds to .......well.......err.....I'll think of something.

DoubleEagle

(01/28/2003; 17:30:09 MDT - Msg ID: 96023)

********** $377.3 **********

I have no idea how the situation in Iraq will turn out, so I can't in any way guess how this might effect the price of gold. However, I will predict a "surprise" spike in unemployment this summer to above 7%, which will further depress consumer sentiment, and send our downward spiral into tighter, faster arcs. The harder things get on the average joe, the brighter gold shines, and the larger it looms on the radar. Great if you have your own "reserve asset," bad if you don't.

Paper Avalanche

(01/28/2003; 17:47:50 MDT - Msg ID: 96024)

@ Daniel Druff - Bifurcated Dollar

Greetings Sir Druff:

My limited understnading of the concept of a bifurcated dollar would be where there exist, essentially, two units of currency ("dollars") backed by the United States. One that is limited to domestic use and one used exclusively for international trade. I cite the earlier post by Traveler:

"Agreed! Except expect two NEW US currencies once the current greenback implodes. One will be created for domestic use and it will have peso like qualities and wealth preservation performance. The international $ will be gold backed (15% cover or better!) and it will be quarterly marked-to-market (a la the Euro)."

Ther question that I am unable to answer is how two "dollars", one a version of the peso and the other having a 15% gold cover to compete with the euro, can co-exist if these notes are able to freely pass across the US border. It seems that Gresham's Law would take effect. I believe that FOA and the gang on the trail are right on in their theories on what lies ahead. I wonder if the idea that the US$ would bifurcate and how a gold cover for one version of the dollar would impact the fate of the non-covered currency was considered. I believe that their theory brings us to the point where hyperinflation takes hold and gold is re-valued against the US$ but it does not go far beyond that. Now that we are fast approaching the point in time where the theory fails to provide guidance we must take upon ourselves the responsibility of thinking as our trail guides have thought and communicate to each other that which the future may hold based on reason, logic, history and economics. I would invite any and all input from the mighty oaken table regarding the impact (both economically and politically) of a bifurcation of the US$.

Take care all.

PA

Trojan

(01/28/2003; 17:47:54 MDT - Msg ID: 96025)

@ misetich Re: Your Snow Job Post :-)

I was watching ABC News earlier tonight and I think I hear them say during their comparing what Bush said in his last SOTU speech in 2002 and the reality of what happened, Re: the Economy.

That the US Budget coming out next week would be projecting a $350 Billion deficit. That's pretty good for Snow's Strong Dollar Policy.

Can anyone say "TRAIN WRECK"

(01/28/2003; 18:35:44 MDT - Msg ID: 96026)

Contest

What day are we guessing the close for?

G$

21mabry

(01/28/2003; 18:43:02 MDT - Msg ID: 96027)

finance gurus

would the forum participants please list there top three financial minds in the world today.only stipulation they should have at least ten years predicting economic trends.

Electrum

(01/28/2003; 18:43:51 MDT - Msg ID: 96028)

****363.5****

The next important development will be the recognition that there are fundamental reasons for re-valued gold. Comprehension that the recent run was not just for geopolitical reasons. This will not come to pass till the Iraq situation is settled and the public can see it from the rearview mirror. Gold to pull back to 340 before is accent on Everest (850)

Daniel Druff

(01/28/2003; 18:51:43 MDT - Msg ID: 96029)

Paper Avalanche

The Bifurcated US DollarSir
Sir Avalance:

"I would invite any and all input from the mighty oaken table regarding the impact (both economically and politically) of a bifurcation of the US$."

It would be a great pleasure indeed, to participate in a
discussion such as you have suggested.

I'm curious as to where you picked up the word, "Bifurcated"...has a rather nice sound, don't you think? But why should one of the "units", if I may, be backed by only 15% gold? Why not 100%? The other could be pure fiat and backed, in some way, by the income tax of the US citizens. Just a thought.

Thank you for your direction to The Traveler's #95985. It looks like I have a little catching up to do and unfortunately tonight is the BIG speech.

Sincerely

Daniel Druff

(01/28/2003; 18:53:09 MDT - Msg ID: 96030)

Paper Avalanche

The Bifurcated US Dollar
Sir Avalance:

corrected submission

"I would invite any and all input from the mighty oaken table regarding the impact (both economically and politically) of a bifurcation of the US$."

It would be a great pleasure indeed, to participate in a
discussion such as you have suggested.

I'm curious as to where you picked up the word, "Bifurcated"...has a rather nice sound, don't you think? But why should one of the "units", if I may, be backed by only 15% gold? Why not 100%? The other could be pure fiat and backed, in some way, by the income tax of the US citizens. Just a thought.

Thank you for your direction to The Traveler's #95985. It looks like I have a little catching up to do and unfortunately tonight is the BIG speech.

Sincerely

sector

(01/28/2003; 18:57:41 MDT - Msg ID: 96031)

Japan 'loses' 206kg of plutonium

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1042491288304

By Bayan Rahman in Tokyo
Published: January 28 2003 20:12 | Last Updated: January 28 2003 20:12

Japan on Tuesday admitted that 206kg of its plutonium - enough to make about 25 nuclear bombs - is unaccounted for.

Government scientists said that 6,890kg of plutonium had been extracted since 1977 from spent nuclear fuel at a processing plant about 120km north east of Tokyo. But that is 3 per cent short of the amount the plant was estimated to have produced.

About 5kg to 8kg of plutonium are needed to make a 20-kiloton atomic bomb similar to the one that destroyed Nagasaki in 1945.

Experts said the missing amount was surprisingly large.

There is normally a margin of error of 1 per cent or less when measuring liquid plutonium, which can dissolve into other elements.

Japan's admission comes at a time of acute sensitivity because of the threat of nuclear proliferation in north-east Asia following North Korea's revival of its mothballed nuclear programme.
++++++++++++++++++++
The report indicates 206 kg can make about twenty-five Hiroshima sized nuclear weapons. Actually, it's much worse, since properly jacketed, this amount of plutonium could be manufactured into 100 5-10 KT devices. Moreover, the article indicates North Korea is known to maintain a smuggling operation from within Japan.

Whew! Aren't we glad the President has a working relationship with Kim Jong Il, a card-carrying member of the Bush "Axis of Evil".

NTgeo

(01/28/2003; 18:59:21 MDT - Msg ID: 96032)

****372.1****

The gold price continues to rise and the gold stocks in Oz don't do very much at all. The US dollar continues to fall with all of the problems in the world. I can't see an early end to the current uncertainty. There is a lot of opposition to Australian troops taking part in any war without UN participation. If war is declared gold will spike and it's level after that depends on how the conflict progresses. I can't see Saddam Hussein capitulating without a fight so anything could happen. Anyone who believes he hasn't got some WMD stashed away is fooling themselves.

sector

(01/28/2003; 19:08:18 MDT - Msg ID: 96033)

Inside Information on SECTREAS Designate, Mr. John "Snow"Man

From a former associate.The life-long railroad man John Snow, has people that have examined his baggage, up-close and personal. Those people call him a "Scumbag".

I have a link to a former high-ranking railroad executive associate of the famous SECTREAS designate Mr. Snow. A vignette from this reliable source [who is an attorney] reveals that Mr. Snow "Abandoned his son" in the 1980's.

There were other occurances that convinced this source that Mr. Snow is a marionette, "Yes-Man" placed there to follow orders.

His words are not straight...to paraphrase the late Chief Dan George.

Trojan

(01/28/2003; 19:16:06 MDT - Msg ID: 96034)

@ sector US Poised To Attack North Korea Now.

http://www.startribune.com/stories/484/3619780.htmlWell sector, just to calm you down some more. North Korea is getting ready to be attacked and to use their MEANS.

I don't think Bush will say Axis Of Evil tonight.

You don't want to upset Lil Kim anymore, do you ?

Watching the Speech.

Paper Avalanche

(01/28/2003; 19:26:23 MDT - Msg ID: 96035)

Watching Shrub

He just announced that we will move forward with reasrch for hydrogen energy to replace oil. This guy is aware of Hubbert's Peak. IMHO, he is looking to secure world oil reserves until this new technology is able to be mass prodcued.

PA

Trurl

(01/28/2003; 19:28:55 MDT - Msg ID: 96036)

**** $367,0 ****

The big thing happening to the gold market is that lots of small buyers are beginning to wake up.

Recall that the series 1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4 + 1/5 + ... diverges, i.e goes to infinity.

Ignoring PGA giants for the moment, lots of little demand sinks will both cause gold dispersion and increased demand.

Gold dispersed to many small players acts differently than gold in a few central banks.

Woodie

(01/28/2003; 19:37:45 MDT - Msg ID: 96037)

**** $367.8 ****

I believe the trigger that will set off the next big leg up in the POG will be one of the big Japanese banks going under at or before their year end squaring of the books in April. Japan seems to be the week link in this global economy, and hence the first to fall. Until then, I expect a fairly orderly uptrend.

Goldendome

(01/28/2003; 20:07:58 MDT - Msg ID: 96038)

****************** 382.2 *****************

Mild squeeze play in the Bottom of the 9th, and I just likes the sound of those numbers!

A lurker because so many others here have so much knowledge in well written manner that more often for me its better to stay silent and read and learn (hopefully).

Cause for Gold movement:

Perhaps I read to much of Nyquist, but if all that nuclear stuff really did exist in the Soviet Union and now it has disappeared, where did it go? I have an uneasiness, a deep down low voltage worry that somewhere someone waits for the clock to strike twelve, the dogs of war are released, and the world is set afire.

Topaz

(01/28/2003; 20:08:25 MDT - Msg ID: 96039)

aussie.

Re your "mint post" of recent times, the reporting issue is but a trifling consern in comparison to the other issue of (upcoming) trade-ability in Gold.
While you may secure a marginal benefit in acquiring a 20oz Bar instead of 20 x 1oz (say) Nuggets, consider a future situation (controlled Gold @ $50,000/oz) and determine which item would be the better hold.
Sometimes smaller is gooder.

sector

(01/28/2003; 20:13:26 MDT - Msg ID: 96040)

@ Trojan North Korea May Attack FIRST...

...by utilizing a large horse with your nameeom

:-)

Aggie

(01/28/2003; 20:14:14 MDT - Msg ID: 96041)

****379.5*****

The direction continues up!!!! A few more days should see us here.

mikal

(01/28/2003; 20:20:48 MDT - Msg ID: 96042)

"...life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness"

"From antiquity to modern times, history is replete with examples of ruthless and corrupt politicians who have shamelessly exploited and manipulated tragic events and the criminal acts of a few to advance their own lust for power. In cases too numerous to mention, tyrants and aspiring despots have gone even further, engaging agents provocateur to carry out assassinations, foment riots and rebellion, precipitate financial panics, attempt palace coups, feign foreign invasion, initiate acts of terrorism, and perform other infamous acts - all for the purpose of establishing a mass psychology of fear, a sense of "crisis," of imminent danger requiring the government to suspend normal liberties..." - William F. Jasper, Observations of Tyranny

Is the Iraqi "provocation" a setup or pretext for confiscation of M.E. gold and oil? Or an act of self-defense? Whichever, get fungible gold to prevent the loss of purchasing power and to empower personal freedom if more civil liberties are suspended.
* * * * * * *
A VISITOR FROM THE PAST
I had a dream the other night, I did not understand.
There was a figure walking through the mist with a flintlock in his hand.
His clothes were torn and tattered, as he stood there by my bed.
He took off his three cornered hat, and speaking low, he said:
"We fought a revolution to secure our liberty,
and we wrote the constitution as a shield from tyranny.
For our future generations, this legacy we gave,
in this the land of the free, and home of the brave.
The freedom we secured for you, we hoped you'd always keep.
But tyrants labored endlessly while your parents were asleep.
Your freedom gone, your courage lost, you're no more than a slave
in this land of the free and home of the brave.
You buy "permits" to travel, and "permits" to own a gun,
"permits" to start a business, and "permits" to build a home.
You live on land you believe to be your own,
but you pay a yearly rent, just to keep a home.
Your children attend a school that doesn't educate,
and your moral values can't be taught, according to the state.
You read about news in a very biased press,
and you pay a tax you do not owe to please the IRS.
Your money is no longer made of silver or of gold;
you have traded your wealth for paper, so your life can be controlled.
You are just a number, there's no family honor that you hold.
You've given government control, to those who do you harm,
as they padlock your businesses and steal the family farm.
Can you regain the freedom for which we fought and died?
Or don't you have the courage, or the faith to stand with pride?
Just what would you fight to save?
Aren't you sick of being just a government slave?
Sons of the Republic, arise and take a stand!
Defend our Constitution, the supreme law of the land.
Preserve our great republic, and each God given right!
And pray to God to keep the torch of freedom burning bright."
As I awoke he vanished in a mist from whence he came.
His words were true, we are not free, and we have ourselves to blame.
For even now as tyrants trample our God given rights,
we only stand and tremble, too afraid to stand and fight.
If he stood by your bedside in a dream while you were asleep,
and asked you what had happened to the rights he died to keep,
What would be your answer if he called out from the grave?
"Is This Still The Land Of The Free And The Home Of The Brave?"
The End.
By Thelen Paulk, from his book: "Poems For Patriots Pilgrims & Pioneers"

A Canadian

(01/28/2003; 20:31:29 MDT - Msg ID: 96043)

SIGN OF THE TIMES :

A crusty old weasle (my best customer) who 2 yrs ago smiled in sympathy at me when I revealed my perversion for gold, called me today in a panic. His wife was screaming for gold! Seems the portfolio had shrunk by 400,000 loonies. This time he paid keen attention to my rantings. (probably in the hope of resuming his sex life.) Just to add a little drama to our encounter I pulled out some coin, grain, a wafer and one pretty little nugget. He looked like Bogart in "Sierra Madre" eyes rolling about and sweating. What a putz. His last question was when to sell. My answer was simple: " never, stupid!"

Trojan

(01/28/2003; 20:37:12 MDT - Msg ID: 96044)

First Poll Results Out On President's Speech

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=sHeading below 99. Should be a good day for Gold and a Bad day for All markets. But then again time will tell. Are we going to have the January effect ?

8341 or Bust......

Stay tuned. Three trading days left.

darkhorse

(01/28/2003; 20:37:51 MDT - Msg ID: 96045)

***** $385 *****

Gandalf, I haven't looked real close tonight to see who's where, but the price above feels right. If it's taken, please put me in the closest available...if it's a tie (i.e. .20 either way) put me on the high side.

No surprises from our CinC tonight, and without using the words he called attention to the Axis of Evil. I believe the biggest danger isn't any one area, but the role China will play in ALL areas. China has supplied just about every rogue state with weapons, supplies, training and technology. They also want to expand their base of power, which would include S. Korea (to exist no longer w/a united, communist Korea) and Taiwan (remember the defense agreement w/them?). I believe TSHTF within a month. I see the possibility of religious/terrorist backlash against us AND Israel, N. Korea moving against S. Korea, and China moving against Taiwan, and an escalation of the Pakistan/India conflict...in other words, WW III. Life as we know it would be drastically altered. If this contest is held again next month, my guess will be four digits, not three.

Belgian

(01/28/2003; 20:39:51 MDT - Msg ID: 96046)

@ Sir Traveler

What exactly makes you think that the "International" dollar will "suddenly" be covered by 15% (or better) Gold-exchange reserves and quartely marked to market ?

Is this in line with the dollar's past 70 years of Gold-policies (management) ? Gold-confiscation ... goldstandard (fixed price)...closed goldwindow....papergold market...
22,000 tonnes of the original US-Goldreserves declined to the present, supposedly, 8,125 tonnes. Less Gold for oceans of increasing International dollars (debt-paper).
The balance (14,000 tonnes) landed in Euroland in exchange for surplus dollars, returned to sender.

If the US desires to make these immense floods of International dollars, as good as Gold, again...why going for the Arabian oil that was happy with the former Gold-dollar ?

Please, can you elaborate on this, sudden, confusing statement of yours ? TIA.

Max : The renewing old continent, Euroland, has become very, very cautious in its global relations. Not in the least as a counter-balance against US's ambitions. We are not living in fear, at present. Germany and France + little satelites, are aligning and that's good so far. Hyper-concentrating on the euro as a base for "stability" and "growth" in these difficult and turbulent times.

Goldnight to all.

Prometheus

(01/28/2003; 20:42:55 MDT - Msg ID: 96047)

***** $369.6 *****

I think POG is headed up; but with pauses along the way to consolidate its gains. I think this week will see one of those pauses. Then up we go again.

P.

silvergolong

(01/28/2003; 20:44:29 MDT - Msg ID: 96048)

Paper Avalanche.... the "bifurcated" dollar

It would be very easy to have two different kinds of dollars. They could circulate freely side by side. In fact, this has happened once before in US history.

After the civil war, US paper greenbacks circulated side-by-side with gold and silver coin. It is worth noting that most of the time (if I remember correctly) the greenbacks circulated at some sort of discount, however, depending on the state of the overall money supply, this discount would evaporate to parity with gold every now and again. Eventually in the late 1800's the US government was actually able to redeem all the greenbacks for gold, and thus they were removed from circulation. Probably the only time a fiat currency was dismantled in a relatively orderly fashion. I say "relatively" orderly because it isn't clear what effect the paper greenbacks had on our country's currency problems during the late 19th century, which saw the effective de-monetization of silver in the US (as well as in most of the rest of the world).

Also think about soviet russia, which effectively had two currencies. Rubles and dollars circulated side-by-side, at a variable exchange rate. If you wanted to buy everyday crap that was manufactured in Russia, you used rubles. If you wanted to buy something imported, you would have to use dollars.

sector

(01/28/2003; 20:46:09 MDT - Msg ID: 96049)

$USD Touching 99

How Touching that Snow's Strong Dollar has......a bit of a weight problem.

Kagalaska

(01/28/2003; 20:54:10 MDT - Msg ID: 96050)

(No Subject)

http://www.rense.com/general34/vanish.htmOk, who ever took the dredge please bring it back.

(01/28/2003; 20:55:15 MDT - Msg ID: 96051)

********$391********

What does a bull do? He bucks and kicks and does everything to throw you off. This bull has had enough of it's pen and it is about to bust it wide open. Will you be on board?

G$

Gandalf the White

(01/28/2003; 21:10:33 MDT - Msg ID: 96052)

THANKS Sir G$ ...........Looks as if you found the SETTLEMENT DATE !

Tis Friday 01/31/03 as setforth in the line near the HEADING and in the RULES !
==
<;-)

timbervision

(01/28/2003; 21:25:30 MDT - Msg ID: 96054)

****372.50****

Those of us who follow gold here can hardly believe what is before us, the dramatic transformation of gold from a paper traded commodity, to an out-of-the-closet wealth storage vehicle. The likes of this change will not be "percepted," (to use Belgian's word), by even a miniscule fraction of the world's people until after the transformation has already become a runnaway train.

As for when this will happen I can't even guess. We each must act on our understanding when we take a position. Will mine stocks participate and will governments allow gold mine share holders to reap virtually unlimited wealth from the underground gold? Not likely. Will known storage depots of gold bullion be safe? I wish I knew. Will gold in possession be under risk of confiscation? I hope not. I also think probably not because in total so few people own gold, apart from the gold on their necks and fingers.

MapleLeaf

(01/28/2003; 21:26:48 MDT - Msg ID: 96055)

*****$371.0*****

With the ongoing slow economy and likely war with Iraq, I suspect that the price of gold will continue to gradually climb. Unless President Bush announces tonight (in the State of the Union address) a major economic stimulus package, the USD will continue to weaken given the jobless "recovery." I agree with Black Blade that one should avoid debt (even "good" debt), prudently set aside non-perishable food/water, and keep at hand gold/silver coinage.

Black Blade

(01/28/2003; 21:37:45 MDT - Msg ID: 96056)

Asian Markets Lower

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Apparently Dubya made an impression on the Japanese as the Nikkei is down over 2% tonight. It appears that they believe the game is on as Colin Powell will submit evidence of Iraqi noncompliance on February 5th. Looks like Gold will gain a bit too now that the game plan has been laid out.

I watched the speech at the gym but did manage to pay attention as I worked out. It was quite a speech though and he did a fair job (or at least his speech writers did). I thought some of his ideas had merit but the opposition will likely kill the best proposals for political mileage. I noticed that the camera panned onto Sen. Ted Kennedy while he was asleep (or passed out maybe - Chivas Regal ya know). It should be interesting to see what the Dems response will be.

- Black Blade

mdgc

(01/28/2003; 21:43:21 MDT - Msg ID: 96057)

pog January 31

****$385.0****

There was a minor peak of $388 in August 1996. Breaking through 388 will be very important because gold had spent more than two years in the 380 range, and then the next step will be the very important February 1996 peak at $414.

Yellow Metal

(01/28/2003; 21:44:33 MDT - Msg ID: 96058)

Mikal : get fungible gold to prevent the loss of purchasing power

Hey !
Fungible !
You stumped me with that word.
I had to look it up.
Sure covers a lot of ground for only three syllables.

Here's the definition for those others like myself who didn't know what it meant.

fungible
Interchangeable. The term is often used to apply to financial instruments which are indentical in specifications. For example, options and futures contracts are highly fungible, since they are highly standardized arrangements. On the other hand, forwards and swaps are not, since they are customized arrangements. Instruments that are highly fungible tend to be very liquid, and so transaction costs tend to be low.

Yeah . . . Fungible . . . I like it.
Kind of like it's cousin . . . Tsngible ( touchable)

Yellow Metal

(01/28/2003; 21:47:00 MDT - Msg ID: 96059)

Oops !

I meant tangible in the precedingSomething you can hold onto.

Ananse

(01/28/2003; 21:49:08 MDT - Msg ID: 96060)

****$470.0****

War - begun at a time not expected, perhaps by an entity other than the US, while everyone is busy wondering what Bush will do and when - will shoot gold up in leaps and bounds. A hundred dollar leap would be a good start. Also, February 1, 2003 is Chinese New Year, 4700. An AUspicious number, perhaps?

goldquest

(01/28/2003; 21:49:49 MDT - Msg ID: 96061)

*****382.80*****

The next significant move for gold will take place on the floor of the NYSE. While one of the CNBC puppet bobbleheads is spewing their venomous anti-gold rhetoric, Spot and Spike will make a suprise visit to the NYSE. The bobbleheads will suddenly experience a warm feeling, beginning at their feet. They will realize that they have been spotted and spiked. They will have seen the golden light. They will cut their report short and dash to the nearest phone where they will immediately dial up USAGOLD and order gold and more gold. They will finally realize that time has just about run out. They will make it however. The following day, they will convince the other CNBC bobbleheads to revolt and buy gold. IMHO, of course!

mikal

(01/28/2003; 21:53:34 MDT - Msg ID: 96062)

Software flaws targeted

http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/5048021.htm Jan. 28, 2003
Internet attack shows vulnerability of system
By Kristi Heim
Mercury News Excerpts:
"As businesses worked to purge their networks Monday of the most serious Internet attack in 18 months, the so-called Slammer worm served as a reminder of just how vulnerable the world's computer systems remain.
The attack that began late Friday night (Pacific Standard Time) targeted a known and repairable flaw in Microsoft's SQL Server database software, wreaking havoc on a wide range of systems from mortgage and credit card companies' Web sites, to Bank of America ATMs, police dispatch operations and high-tech manufacturing.
Microsoft issued a ``patch�� for SQL Server 2000 customers to download last July and again in October. But widespread disruption of the Internet over the past few days showed that many users had failed to install the patch -- including some at Microsoft itself, where the worm infected its network.
The Slammer worm affected more than 200,000 computers in North America and 400,000 to 700,000 computers worldwide.....
President Bush's No. 2 cyber-security adviser, Howard Schmidt, acknowledged Monday that the ``collateral damage�� from the attack was serious, surprising even experts who have warned about potential danger to the nation�s critical computer networks from mass-scale Internet attacks.
Businesses in Asia were particularly hard hit...... Although Internet activity had largely returned to normal by Monday, security experts warned that more damaging attacks could follow.
For one thing, organizations face a daunting challenge to keep up to date with the latest security patches. Some customers who said they installed the Microsoft patch were still affected. And many consumers and businesses using the Web also were affected as the Internet slowed to a crawl......
Microsoft issued a new patch Saturday that made it easier to install the repair software. On Monday, the downloads spiked to about 6,800 per hour, said Scott Charney, Microsoft's chief security strategist.
The Redmond, Wash. software company has suffered several embarrassing security problems recently, including the Code Red and Nimda worms in 2001 that targeted vulnerabilities in Microsoft software.
The world's biggest software maker, which has been struggling over the past year to improve the security of its products, said it would have to do a better job of managing its patches.
Microsoft spokesman Rick Miller said the company hopes its new products will reduce the number of fixes required. However, he added, ``We�re never going to see a day where you see no patches. Software made by humans will always have flaws. Fixing it is a part of doing business.��
Yet many organizations are short-staffed and don't have a person dedicated to computer security...." End snippitts
The Associated Press and Mercury News staff writers Chris O'Brien, Therese Poletti and Mary Anne Ostrom contributed to this report.

Gandalf the White

(01/28/2003; 21:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 96063)

Attention -- Sir Mdgc

mdgc (1/28/03; 21:43:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 96057)
pog January 31
****$385.0****
===
Dear Sir MDGC -- Question --- IS that your Entry ?
IF SO the listing a few minutes earlier shows that it was a PREVIOUSLY chosen number !
AND therefore, if you are entering the CONTEST, you shall have to GUESS AGAIN !
<;-)

Black Blade

(01/28/2003; 21:57:08 MDT - Msg ID: 96064)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm
Snippit:

The BIG Squeeze

The gold camp is divided into several investor classes. There are mainly four categories when it comes to investing in gold. They are as follows:

True Believers

Nonbelievers, Hedgers & Short-Sellers

Momentum Traders

Clueless John Q's

True Believers
The True Believers are the gold bugs. Their belief in gold borders on the religious. To true believers, gold represents real money, liberty and freedom. Gold isn't a liability. Gold as real money doesn't depend on any other entity to back it. It stands all by itself. Its value is universal, nonperishable, and non-depreciable. It has served as real money for more than 5,000 years of recorded history. Some of the first recorded manuscripts that we have in history contain commerce transactions in silver and gold. Precious metals, both gold and silver, have outlasted any government, empire, or fiat currency that tried to supplant it. Therefore, to gold bugs, precious metals represent real money and not a commodity used for industrial or jewelry uses. Gold bugs have held on to their gold and silver during the decades of famine. They still own it and are in the process of accumulating even more of it given the perilous monetary and economic storms that are swirling around the globe, especially here in the United States.

The True Believers category also includes The Smart Money, which is a class of investors who understand the monetary condition we now find ourselves in. They understand the oncoming deflationary forces that will be unleashed upon the financial system because of the implosion of credit. They also understand the supply/demand imbalances that exist for both silver and gold that have resulted from central bank selling, hedging, and short-selling. They know that supply imbalances can't last forever and that eventually prices will explode due to artificial price restraints that have kept gold from rising. Those restraints are being removed day by day as the rest of the world is getting rid of its paper, especially US dollars. In Japan, after more than a decade of deflation as a result of the huge Japanese monetary bubble of the 80's, Japanese investors are getting out of paper and buying gold. Gold buying is increasing around the globe, in Europe, the Middle East and especially in Asia.

Black Blade: A good read overall. I tend to find the Nonbelievers and the Clueless as my source of entertainment though. The nonbelievers will get a nasty taste of Karma as the inevitable comes to pass, and the Clueless are a study in natural selection and human behavior under stress. The momentum traders just give us a dose of excitement as they help to herd the Lemmings into the boiling pot. Fun times lie ahead for our amusement. Grab some popcorn and get a cold one and watch Darwinism in action!

Gold is for holding as portfolio insurance and stocks are for trading/speculation.

BILLYG

(01/28/2003; 21:57:15 MDT - Msg ID: 96065)

**** 377.70 ****

**** 377.70 ****

I am trying to figure out what GOLD will do when the war finally comes. Will it fall like a rock and takes months to recover or will it go up in price? Do I hold my positions (lighten up) or get out now? Why are the GOLD STOCKS acting so poorly, (compared to the GOLD price) Just had a failed rally, but they sure don't correct far in price so a guy can get in at a good price. THE MARKET IS SPEAKING � ARE YOU LISTENING???

physicalman

(01/28/2003; 22:00:08 MDT - Msg ID: 96066)

gold-all- and (price guess) ************888.80***************

Hi again all. Have been having to spend most of my time reading all the fine posts and have not been able to post myself.
My gold guess is kinda high but i don't think i could find another place to put any gold or silver(physical). HAHA, just kidding! I've been in physical PM's since the seventies so i do have a pretty good pile. Hence the screen name. If i do by chance happen to win at this price, we will all be winners!
I posted the ag. totals of all the silver coins produced by the US Mint since 1857 on Tuesday night and last night i found the disc with the total amount of gold used by the Mint since 1795. The totals that i am about to list do not include proof early gold coins(pre 1933) as i could not find any reference as to if the proof mintages were included with business strikes. Also not included are the mintages for the gold eagle program. This will give an idea as to how much gold coin was created by the govt. up until confiscation order in 1933.
US 1 dollar gold coins 938,667.44257 oz. au.
US 2.50 gold pieces 2,445,564.4741 oz. au.
US 3 dollar pieces 75,278.3713 oz. au.
US 5 dollar pieces 19,030,629.2792 oz. au.
US 10 dollar eagles 27,386,725.0844 oz. au.
US 20 dollar double eagles 168,174,819.674 oz. au.
Total from 1795 to 1933- 218,051,684.325 oz. au
Hmmm? This total is less than the listed amount of gold in the US reserves ( if its still there) and we all know that a heckuva lot of older gold coins were not turned in under FDR's decree. Also know that US gold mining production was a lot lower back then then it has been since 1983. Of course under the period from 1933 to 1971 most gold that was mined in the US was sold to the govr. (some to jewelry manuf.) but it was not enough for us to have had 21,000 metric tons in reserves at the end of WWII. How much Black gold was in this total? How much gold did the US governmint buy from the civil war period until 1933 that was not minted into specie? Why did the US mint quit taking gold and silver (from individuals) directly and exchange into coin in 1857 and we had a panic the same year? Did we really go without a central bank from 1836 to 1913. One year after the Bank of the United States lost a battle with the Jackson Presidency for its existence this country went into the Hard Times period of 1837.
As i was looking over the yearly production figures for gold and silver coins i noticed many subtle little hints of banker/ foreign control of this countries money/economy/true independence. I will do some research for all the panics/depressions of the 1800's/ early 1900's and the changes in gold coinage and supply of paper currency plus the silver coin productions and see if i can come up with some parallels/proof of these theories. Every time that this country has went through economic hard times the citizens have given up a little more of their constitutional rights for the return of economic prosperity.
If the US would have went to a bi-metallic money standard at the end of WWII not only would we have had pre-existing gold and silver coins but there was 21,000 metric tons of gold and 6 billion oz. of silver to make additional coinage for circulation and hold more back for paper currecy backing/redemtion. I believe we lost our last mostly painless chance for real money at that time. It can still happen but the path now would contain much adversity and we would never be the same.
Enough of my musings. Any research/comments etc. always welcome!

Chris Powell

(01/28/2003; 22:03:57 MDT - Msg ID: 96067)

Now China's central bank tries to keep the gold price down

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1403The gold story of the month, maybe of the year.
Central bank suppression of the gold price is
on the record.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Golden Bear

(01/28/2003; 22:06:49 MDT - Msg ID: 96068)

mikal (msg#: 96062)

Hi mikal,

just an update to my comments to you the other day. I was informed today that this worm also targets additional software:

Vulnerable Systems

Microsoft SQL Server 2000

Microsoft Desktop Engine 2000 ( MSDE 2000) which is installed as part of:
* SQL Server 2000 (Developer, Standard, and Enterprise Editions)

* Visual Studio .NET (Architect, Developer, and Professional Editions)

* ASP.NET Web Matrix Tool

* Office XP (various versions)

* MSDN (various subscription levels)

* Access 2002

* Visual FoxPro 7.0/8.0

For all forum participants, an added layer of protection for your computers is to install firewall software such as zonealarm or kerio personal firewall, both of which are free.

Good introductory information can be found at www.grc.com in the shieldsup section.

My apologies for those who already are aware of these issues and products.

Regards.

1340cc

(01/28/2003; 22:11:20 MDT - Msg ID: 96069)

Link to contest down

Well Frank "TWB" just got home from Vancouver and wanted to post a guess on the POG for the contest but the link is down. Hopefully it will be up soon??

Black Blade

(01/28/2003; 22:22:14 MDT - Msg ID: 96070)

U.S. State Deficits Top $100 Bln, Legislators Say

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Local%20Muni%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_munibonds&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk∣dle=blk&s=APjWp_RL7VS5TLiBT
Snippit:

Washington, Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. states from California to Connecticut have raised budget deficit estimates to $105.7 billion, or $367 for every person in the country, a legislators' group said. State tax revenue has plummeted because of the nation's stalled recovery and stock market losses, causing governors in Arizona, Colorado and Connecticut to fire state workers to save money. California and Oregon are among states considering income tax increases. ``States expected the economy to pick up and be almost fully back to boom times again,'' Flynn said. ``Now that we know that's not happening, their problems are worsening. Budget problems are going to drive just about every legislative session this year. Everything's going to be about the budget.''

Black Blade: Personally I find this situation hilarious. During the years of plenty these states did not pay down debt and squeeze out inefficiencies. Instead they spent like drunken sailors and borrowed to the hilt and even raided their treasuries. "Eat, Drink and be Merry for tomorrow we die". Now the tide has turned the chickens have come home to roost. Politicians are not exactly very far up the evolutionary ladder so I guess we shouldn't have expected much from their leadership anyway, but true to form they are pointing fingers and blaming others instead of the guy in the mirror. It is only going to get much worse as taxes are raised and services cut putting more pressure on any hint of an "economic recovery". I am just glad I live in a state with no deficit (or state income tax either). Just have a lot of natural resources.

kramrich

(01/28/2003; 22:23:40 MDT - Msg ID: 96071)

******378.40******

I think tonight's speech by Bush absolutely confirms that the US will be going to war with Iraq very soon. I listened to his speech very closely for what his intentions were. He all but said the words, " Were going to war! ". I think the next big gold developement or event will be the chaos in the world markets caused by a US attack on Iraq. Things are about to get very loud in the political arena. Looks like February is the month. I can't imagine what fool would sell gold into an attack against Iraq, but I still here people saying " buy the rumor sell the fact".

I'd say buy gold ang stay long for quite some time now.

Gandalf the White

(01/28/2003; 22:25:00 MDT - Msg ID: 96072)

TEST !

POG CONTEST entries --- like the JPM Gold Pit man says --
"Bring them on !" ( I'm ready ! )
<;-)

Waverider

(01/28/2003; 22:26:07 MDT - Msg ID: 96073)

***************** $380.50 ****************

I think that the most immediate and next important event for Gold is war. I don't believe for a minute that we'll lose the "war premium" once war ensues. On the contrary, with probable terrorist retaliation of proportions we've never seen before, the sheeple will be catapulted into Gold out of fear and uncertaintly of the future. Of course I hope I'm wrong and hope that we'll see a slow and gradual increase related to economic fundamentals in Golds favor. But I'll be honest, I fear for the world over the next few months because Sadam is like a cornered animal and he's capable of anything.

Gandalf the White

(01/28/2003; 22:36:09 MDT - Msg ID: 96074)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !UPDATE as of 22:30 Tuesday 01/28/03 Denver Time !

Thirteen and one-half Hours to go until Entry DEADLINE !

===
QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003: THE ENTRY DEADLINE is HIGH NOON Denver time on Wednesday 1/29/03 !!!!!!

===
120 ..... ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

===
INVALID ENTRIES

ONE -- Prior Chosen

mdgc (1/28/03; 21:43:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 96057)
pog January 31
****$385.0****

======

VALID ENTRIES

**** $888.8 **** physicalman (1/28/03; 22:00:08MT - msg#: 96066

**** $750.0 **** Caradoc (1/17/03; 10:49:20MT - msg#: 94778

**** $583.7 **** valsteve11 (1/26/03; 14:43:17MT - msg#: 95718

**** $480.3 **** Cometose (1/23/03; 10:01:34MT - msg#: 95329

**** $471.0 **** PorterSweden (1/26/03; 12:26:36MT - msg#: 95705

**** $470.0 **** Ananse (1/28/03; 21:49:08MT - msg#: 96060

**** $435.5 **** ElGordo (1/27/03; 13:12:19MT - msg#: 95866

**** $427.4 **** rsjacksr (1/24/03; 09:47:47MT - msg#: 95443

**** $426.2 **** drawmax (1/20/03; 08:09:53MT - msg#: 94990)

**** $425.5 **** 1340cc (1/27/03; 10:43:51MT - msg#: 95846

**** $419.4 **** The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - msg#: 94798

**** $415.0 **** madgreek (1/27/03; 20:00:34MT - msg#: 95907

**** $413.5 **** Farfel (01/26/03; 22:39:08MT - msg#: 95760

**** $407.8 **** Believer (1/27/03; 14:51:36MT - msg#: 95877

**** $404.5 **** Magister Aurelius (1/23/03; 10:23:42MT - msg#: 95332

**** $403.5 **** misetich (1/17/03; 18:25:29MT - msg#: 94815

**** $402.1 **** Humble Pie (01/28/03; 10:18:28MT - msg#: 95979

**** $400.0 **** Sundeck (1/17/03; 04:25:05MT - msg#: 94737
**** $399.9 **** Nibelung (1/27/03; 14:55:54MT - msg#: 95879

**** $399.4 **** Clint H (1/27/03; 08:46:56MT - msg#: 95825

**** $398.8 **** Beach (1/25/03; 14:37:16MT - msg#: 95611

**** $396.4 **** Bulldog (1/17/03; 20:05:57MT - msg#: 94825

**** $395.1 **** Pizz (1/23/03; 10:48:12MT - msg#: 95337

**** $392.2 **** omegaman (1/25/03; 00:21:10MT - msg#: 95553

**** $391.0 **** G$ (1/28/03; 20:55:15MT - msg#: 96051

**** $390.0 **** Galerider (01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - msg#: 94724)

**** $388.8 **** Shanti (01/24/03; 10:20:12MT - msg#: 95448

**** $387.5 **** knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - msg#: 94800

**** $386.2 **** Basil (1/26/03; 01:04:02MT - msg#: 95645

**** $386.0 **** Gondolin (1/27/03; 10:03:02MT - msg#: 95838

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (1/17/03; 05:12:59MT - msg#: 94738

**** $385.0 **** darkhorse (1/28/03; 20:37:51MT - msg#: 96045

**** $384.5 **** Tate (1/25/03; 08:24:55MT - msg#: 95574

**** $383.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - msg#: 94791

**** $382.8 **** goldquest (1/28/03; 21:49:49MT - msg#: 96061

**** $382.5 **** Hipplebeck (1/18/03; 06:47:33MT - msg#: 94850

**** $382.2 **** Goldendome (1/28/03; 20:07:58MT - msg#: 96038

**** $381.4 **** Gold Standard (1/27/03; 00:26:40MT - msg#: 95774)

**** $381.2 **** BlackBart (01/28/03; 15:48:23MT - msg#: 96013

**** $381.0 **** Camel (01/24/03; 18:38:52MT - msg#: 95519

**** $380.5 **** Waverider (1/28/03; 22:26:07MT - msg#: 96073

**** $380.2 **** pinetree (1/23/03; 09:04:28MT - msg#: 95322

**** $379.8 **** gvc (1/27/03; 10:56:00MT - msg#: 95849

**** $379.5 **** Aggie (1/28/03; 20:14:14MT - msg#: 96041

**** $379.3 **** donnemuir (1/26/03; 09:39:48MT - msg#: 95673

**** $379.1 **** ha_tey_o (1/17/03; 07:24:56MT - msg#: 94741

**** $378.9 **** erayboy (1/17/03; 03:05:04MT - msg#: 94729
**** $378.8 **** miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - msg#: 94805

**** $378.4 **** kramrich (1/28/03; 22:23:40MT - msg#: 96071
**** $378.3 **** Trojan (01/28/03; 12:17:13MT - msg#: 95989

**** $378.1 **** a nation of one (01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - msg#: 94720

**** $377.7 **** BILLYG (1/28/03; 21:57:15MT - msg#: 96065
**** $377.6 **** Scarab (1/27/03; 22:04:42MT - msg#: 95921

**** $377.3 **** DoubleEagle (1/28/03; 17:30:09MT - msg#: 96023

**** $377.0 **** Frosty (01/24/03; 18:01:40MT - msg#: 95516

**** $376.8 **** goldenpeace (1/27/03; 09:23:19MT - msg#: 95829

**** $376.2 **** GoldenSun (1/23/03; 09:26:38MT - msg#: 95325

**** $376.0 **** Max Rabbitz (1/27/03; 11:16:23MT - msg#: 95853

**** $375.5 **** balzac (1/18/03; 14:15:59MT - msg#: 94880

**** $375.0 **** Mountain Top (1/19/03; 10:56:32MT - msg#: 94937

**** $374.6 **** harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - msg#: 94792

**** $374.4 **** silvergolong (1/28/03; 09:07:26MT - msg#: 95968

**** $374.1 **** Slowman (1/17/03; 06:10:05MT - msg#: 94739
**** $374.0 **** Zhisheng (1/17/03; 09:53:34MT - msg#: 94762

**** $373.5 **** kahulik (01/20/03; 11:08:21MT - msg#: 94998

**** $373.0 **** Genoo (1/28/03; 16:59:55MT - msg#: 96015)

**** $372.7 **** SWEET 16 (01/28/03; 09:59:59MT - msg#: 95975

**** $372.5 **** timbervision (1/28/03; 21:25:30MT - msg#: 96054

**** $372.2 **** Houston (1/19/03; 10:30:11MT - msg#: 94934
**** $372.1 **** NTgeo (1/28/03; 18:59:21MT - msg#: 96032
**** $372.0 **** OZ (1/17/03; 02:14:25MT - msg#: 94727
**** $371.9 **** silvercollector (1/22/03; 05:15:12MT - msg#: 95191
**** $371.8 **** Time For GOLD (1/22/03; 11:17:36MT - msg#: 95211

**** $371.5 **** Tranquility Base (1/27/03; 22:32:33MT - msg#: 95925

**** $371.2 **** Achilles (1/23/03; 09:27:54MT - msg#: 95326

**** $371.0 **** MapleLeaf (1/28/03; 21:26:48MT - msg#: 96055
**** $370.9 **** Richman (1/22/03; 11:18:21MT - msg#: 95212

**** $370.7 **** Broken Tee (1/27/03; 13:21:07MT - msg#: 95868
**** $370.6 **** sector (01/28/03; 10:58:10MT - msg#: 95981
**** $370.5 **** VanRip (1/17/03; 07:59:23MT - msg#: 94747
**** $370.4 **** The Knife (1/26/03; 06:14:53MT - msg#: 95652
**** $370.3 **** Casey (01/23/03; 13:32:42MT - msg#: 95349

**** $370.1 **** Black Blade (1/23/03; 10:00:48MT - msg#: 95328

**** $369.9 **** Ole Man (1/18/03; 23:30:28MT - msg#: 94912
**** $369.8 **** MoonHowler (1/28/03; 06:47:06MT - msg#: 95954
**** $369.7 **** Yellow Metal (01/28/03; 14:45:51MT - msg#: 96005
**** $369.6 **** Prometheus (1/28/03; 20:42:55MT - msg#: 96047
**** $369.5**** Truthcaster (1/23/03; 09:18:53MT - msg#: 95323

**** $369.2 **** slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - msg#: 94796

**** $369.0 **** wiley (01/21/03; 12:21:41MT - msg#: 95102

**** $368.7 **** Toolie (01/23/03; 20:26:50MT - msg#: 95394

**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750

**** $368.2 **** Zelts (01/21/03; 07:34:30MT - msg#: 95080

**** $367.8 **** Woodie (1/28/03; 19:37:45MT - msg#: 96037

**** $367.4 **** Kagalaska (01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - msg#: 94721

**** $367,0 **** Trurl (1/28/03; 19:28:55MT - msg#: 96036

**** $366.7 **** seagull (1/27/03; 00:14:48MT - msg#: 95772

**** $366.0 **** White Rose (01/21/03; 09:29:59MT - msg#: 95093

**** $365.6 **** Shermag (1/26/03; 07:59:54MT - msg#: 95660

**** $365.2 **** pilgrims_gold (1/18/03; 10:01:47MT - msg#: 94863

**** $365.0 **** monTROZ (01/20/03; 12:50:24MT - msg#: 95005

**** $364.2 **** Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - msg#: 94755

**** $363.5 **** Electrum (1/28/03; 18:43:51MT - msg#: 96028

**** $363.0 **** luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - msg#: 94795

**** $362.5 **** EagleOne (1/18/03; 14:02:13MT - msg#: 94877

**** $362.3 **** Renny (1/18/03; 05:15:47MT - msg#: 94848

**** $362.0 **** Albatros (01/21/03; 07:48:42MT - msg#: 95081

**** $361.7 **** mudr (01/23/03; 20:19:27MT - msg#: 95391

**** $361.1 **** Lothar of the Hill People (01/20/03; 13:51:40MT - msg#: 95013

**** $360.8 **** Liberty Head (01/20/03; 19:45:52MT - msg#: 95040

**** $360.5 **** Felix the Cat (1/20/03; 03:35:20MT - msg#: 94984

**** $360.0 **** Henri (1/18/03; 15:28:31MT - msg#: 94886

**** $359.7 **** Alaskan hunter (01/23/03; 14:12:45MT - msg#: 95355

**** $359.1 **** 24carat (1/18/03; 16:10:36MT - msg#: 94889

**** $358.0 **** makcumka (1/20/03; 05:44:13MT - msg#: 94987

**** $357.6 **** goldenboy (01/21/03; 09:16:39MT - msg#: 95092

**** $355.1 **** MO VER MEG (1/26/03; 08:24:25MT - msg#: 95663

**** $348.0 **** Topaz (1/17/03; 03:06:48MT - msg#: 94730

**** $203.0 **** Around The Corner (01/24/03; 11:01:41MT - msg#: 95452

===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.
---

THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February �03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 -----

The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old) goldpiece !!
Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin was Minted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce. (Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)
---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
(Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 = $358.1 + $7.0 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a Low = $350.0
1/17/03 = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a Low = $355.3 and Sir ROCK was "King of the Hill" !
1/21/03 = $357.5 + $0.7 with a HIGH = $358.1 and a Low = $353.4 and Sir Goldenboy was "KING of the HILL"
1/22/03 = $359.9 + $2.4 with a HIGH = $360.4 and a Low = $357.8 and Sir Henri was "KING of the HILL!"
1/23/03 = $364.6 + $4.7 with a HIGH = $367.7 and a Low = $360.0 and ... WOWSERS .. A TIE !!
.......................................................BOTH Sir monTROZ & Sir Rock were "KINGS of the Hill !!!"
1/24/03 = $368.4 + $3.8 with a HIGH = $370.2 and a Low = $362.8 and Sir J-Bullion" was "KING of the HILL!"
1/27/03 = $369.4 + $1.0 with a HIGH = $373.7 and a Low = $367.8 and Sir Truthcaster is "King of the HILL!"
1/28/03 = $370.0 + $0.6 with a HIGH = $370.2 and a Low = $365.5 and ... WOWSERS .. ANOTHER TIE !!
................................................BOTH Sir Black Blade and SIR Ole Man are "KINGS of the HILL!"
===
<;-)

Black Blade

(01/28/2003; 22:37:06 MDT - Msg ID: 96075)

Japanese Bond Yield Falls to Within 1 Basis Point of Record Low

Gandalf the White

(01/28/2003; 22:46:40 MDT - Msg ID: 96076)

WOWSERS -- At Midnight NY time the COMEX............

PRICE BARRIER is being "HELD" at the $370.0 with TONNES of PAPER Gold !!! OK, SPIKE and SPOT, save up your energy and then when the PAPER "pushers" take a Champagne Break, -- GO BITE 'em !!!
<;-)

slingshot

(01/28/2003; 22:52:52 MDT - Msg ID: 96077)

WaterBoy

MSG# 95916Thanks WaterBoy for that Link. Just getting caught up on my reading.
Slingshot------------<>

TownCrier

(01/28/2003; 22:58:21 MDT - Msg ID: 96078)

Gandalf the Contest Master

I tried reaching you by e-mail, but will rely on this as a sure thing. I had tried to let you know that no small number of people have requested technical assistance from me lately. They said the "link" which you are providing to enter the price-guessing contest isn't working properly...

Ive provided guidance on an as-needed basis, but as you know, I have no power to fix that particular problem at its root, so I'm leaving the solution in your capable hands. I know you'll know what to do. Thanks!

Randy

Gandalf the White

(01/28/2003; 23:07:58 MDT - Msg ID: 96079)

The Enter CONTEST "LINK" .........

( THIS BOX should NOT be used for anything BUT LINKS ) <;-(OOPS --- Thanks TC !!
Sorry to have mislead so many Contest posters with an INAPPROPRIATE use of a box titled "OPTIONAL LINK" just below the Subject Box !
I find that "Non-Wizards" are not able to use that method to place their Entry, and suggest that all Entries to the POG CONTEST be made by just sending a normal message to the Forum using their PASSWORD issued by TC !
120 lines on the WHITEBOARD, Gandalf !!
"Thou shall not use the LINK box !"
<;-(

Black Blade

(01/28/2003; 23:13:23 MDT - Msg ID: 96080)

Bush Pushes Energy Plan, Alternative-Fueled Cars

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=2128447
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush on Tuesday urged Congress to pass a comprehensive energy plan to increase domestic energy supplies, and proposed funds to develop hydrogen-powered automobiles that would reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil. In his State of the Union speech to Congress, Bush said promoting energy independence for the United States and dramatically improving the environment was one of the four domestic goals he wanted lawmakers to address this year. Bush called for passage of his national energy plan, which includes giving oil companies access to the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, although he did not specifically mention opening the refuge up to oil drilling. To promote a cleaner environment and tackle dependence on foreign crude, Bush proposed research funding of $1.2 billion to build hydrogen-powered vehicles that would not produce polluting exhaust fumes. "With a new national commitment, our scientists and engineers will overcome obstacles to taking these cars from laboratory to showroom -- so that the first car driven by a child born today could be powered by hydrogen and pollution free," Bush said in his speech. The president also asked Congress to pass his "Clear Skies" legislation that would require a 70 percent cut in air pollution from power plants over the next 15 years.

Black Blade: Hydrogen power eh? That means we had better get a hell of a lot more NatGas supply when hydrogen power fuel cells and necessary infrastructure become viable in about 20 years or so (maybe). Hydrogen will be obtained from NatGas and a good supply will be necessary for the prez's "Clear Skies" legislation as coal and oil power plants are decommissioned. It will also be a boost for nuclear power as well. I don't see this happening in most of our lifetimes.

mikal

(01/28/2003; 23:22:09 MDT - Msg ID: 96081)

****373.3****

"The next important development for gold and why" is among many others, the continuation of a steady news assault on the world's perceptions of the economic status quo. Such as tonight's: "Democrat's attack Bush economic policy", not good for America's "united" image. Or, "Trade deficit widens to new record", not good for America's "prosperous" image. And U.S. leaders: (paraphased)"The economic recovery is on track", not good for America's "moral example".

slingshot

(01/28/2003; 23:46:48 MDT - Msg ID: 96082)

Knallgold

Msg # 95799Its just a shot away. Its just a shot away.

Headline in a Newspaper?

Stones. Give me Shelter.
Slingshot-----------------<>

AllanC

(01/28/2003; 23:54:26 MDT - Msg ID: 96083)

Well...there's just a few pockets of resistance to clear up here...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/2700883.stm
BBC News Service

Tuesday, 28 January, 2003, 17:55 GMT
Fierce battle rages in Afghanistan

American and coalition forces have been battling Afghan rebels in the south of the country, close to the border with Pakistan.
American war planes have bombed rebel fighters in the mountainous region near the town of Spin Boldak, in what US military officials say is the largest-scale fighting for nine months.

Some 200 US special forces troops are engaged in the mountain battle and more are on their way, US Army spokesman Major Robert Hepner told the Associated Press.

Col King says the fighting could last some time
Another US spokesman said the fighting forces were aligned to one of the Afghan leaders, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

Up to 18 rebel fighters have been killed, spokesman Colonel Roger King said.

"It's the largest concentration of enemy forces since Operation Anaconda," Colonel King said - a reference to the US military campaign in eastern Afghanistan last March.

Colonel King said the latest battle might last some time, because of the large area involved.

"It's rough terrain. There are some caves, there may be more that we don't know about, so it could take a considerable period of time," he said.

Gun battle

The fighting has been centred on rocky, unpopulated terrain around the Adi Ghar mountain, near the border with Pakistan, where as many as 80 fighters were hidden, he said.

The fighting was triggered by a small gun battle nearby between US Special Forces and armed attackers as the Americans and Afghan Government troops were working to clear a compound.

The allied forces surrounded the group - which locals said had been threatening communities east of Spin Boldak - killing one man, wounding another and detaining at least one other.

Apache helicopters sent to investigate came under fire, prompting the deployment of American B-1 bombers, F-16s and AC-130 gunships.

Recent attacks

Colonel King said that intelligence suggested the rebel fighters were most closely aligned with faction leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

"We've had reports over several months that he's been attempting to consolidate with remnants of al-Qaeda and Taleban," Colonel King said, quoted by the Associated Press.

However, the BBC's Rahimullah Yusufzai, reporting across the border from Peshawar, says there is little evidence that Mr Hekmatyar has joined forces with the Taleban.

Many Taleban and al-Qaeda suspects fled into Pakistan following the US bombardment in 2001.

Recent months have seen a series of attacks along the long border between the two countries.

Black Blade

(01/28/2003; 23:56:13 MDT - Msg ID: 96084)

U.S. Gas Prices Must Go Higher for Storage to End above 700 bcf

http://170.12.99.3/researchpdf/iEne012703b_0812.pdf
Snippit:

The recently updated gas model suggests that even more gas demand must be squeezed out of the system over the next two months if winter-ending gas storage is to remain above 700 bcf. That means U.S. natural gas prices are likely to continue increasing over the coming weeks.

After analyzing the weather and natural gas storage data through the first half of winter, we have found that our original winter gas storage model has been fairly close to our original prediction. After adjusting for weather differences, we estimate that economy-related (or industrial) gas demand is about 1 bcf/day lower than our original expectations.

As expected, it also appears that gas to residual fuel switching has already kicked in with a year-over-year change of about 1.35 bcf/day. After fine-tuning this gas storage model at the midway point, we still remain convinced that winter-ending storage is on track to theoretically finish below 700 bcf (even if the weather turns 6 � % warmer than normal for the remaining two months of winter). Since ending storage has never finished below 700 bcf, we believe the market will likely respond with even higher gas prices to squeeze even more gas demand out of the system over the next two months.

How high will gas prices go? Depending on the weather, prices must continue to rise enough to kill (or fuel switch) an additional 1 to 5 bcf/day of natural gas demand over the final 70 days of winter. That means gas prices are likely to continue moving well above $6/mcf even if the weather turns modestly warmer than normal. More importantly for investors, a winter-ending storage level below 800 bcf means a tight summer gas market and reinforces our view that U.S. natural gas prices are likely to remain above $5 per mcf for the foreseeable future.

Black Blade: See link for report in its entirety. At current withdrawal rates we should expect sharply declining storage levels until the end of heating season � even if temperatures moderate to and above normal. The lack of drilling interest and low expected injection levels through summer portends a drastically lower storage level going into the next heating season. Should summer temperatures be above normal then all bets are off as energy demand rises. The higher energy costs will cap any attempt at an economic recovery this year and next.

otish mountain

(01/29/2003; 00:03:01 MDT - Msg ID: 96085)

*****$376.60*****

The event that will rocket the price of gold to the next level will be the continuing realization of the mountains of debt that has been issued without collateral backing.

The public while slow at the moment, will soon discover the flight to tangible assets will protect their wealth better than financial paper.

Gold in the hand will be the ultimate choice.

Black Blade

(01/29/2003; 00:10:04 MDT - Msg ID: 96086)

Market Index Futures Lower

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market futures are sharply lower, the USD is under attack, oil and NatGas are higher, and oddly enough Gold is struggling. We have a few hours before Wall Street opens for business and all this could change by then, but if the futures hold we should see a sharply lower open at the bell.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(01/29/2003; 00:13:27 MDT - Msg ID: 96087)

Asian Markets Awash in Red

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets are decidedly lower tonight. Euro markets open in about an hour and it's expected that those markets will also start off in the red as well.

- Black Blade

TownCrier

(01/29/2003; 00:32:02 MDT - Msg ID: 96088)

"The more things change, the LESS they remain the same..."

http://news.nasdaq.com/news/newsStory.aspx?&cpath=20030128\ACQDJON200301282344DOWJONESDJONLINE001146.htmChina Extends Forex Trade By More Than 4 Hours

SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--China's foreign exchange trading session will be extended by more than four hours, starting Feb. 8, with trading commencing at 0130 GMT and closing at 0730 GMT, the National Interbank Funding Center said Wednesday.

At present, trading starts at 0120 GMT and ends at 0300 GMT, an official at the center said.

The official declined to comment on why the trading session is being extended, saying that a statement on the issue would be released by Thursday at the latest.

Dealers said the change in trading hours is a signal there is to be a change in policy affecting the foreign exchange market, but couldn't say what form it was likely to take. "Otherwise, there's no special need to extend the hours, since the market isn't speculative and it isn't active," said a dealer at Shanghai Pudong Development Bank.

...Under the current regime, banks can't service large foreign exchange transactions with their clients in the afternoon, since they would be unable to square their foreign exchange positions by the end of the day.

... the move is likely to spur yuan trading against the euro and Japanese yen in the mainland Chinese market, trade which accounts for less than 5% of current volume, dealers have said.

------(visit url for full text)-------

Following the advent of the euro to challenge the dollar, in affecting all things golden and monetary the footsteps of China are the next big thing.

R.

TownCrier

(01/29/2003; 00:54:17 MDT - Msg ID: 96090)

They can sell all they want, but who's buying and for how long?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030128/markets_bonds_outlook_2.htmlThis article deals mostly with the expectations for the FOMC policy decision later today, but it also provides this helpful summary of our fiscal straits.

Read on.

R.
----------

Excerpts:
...the government will have to increase [debt] issuance this year to fund its ballooning budget deficit.

The Treasury is selling [a record-matching high] $27 billion of two-year notes on Wednesday and so far dealers have been struggling to build a concession for the deal with yields backing up only modestly to 1.69 percent when-issued against 1.65 percent for the current note and a 1.60 percent trough a week ago.

The very liquid short end is a favored safe-haven during times of uncertainty, a major reason dealers expect the auction to meet enough demand to ensure the lowest yield on record.

However, in just two weeks time Treasury is set to sell around $40 billion of five- and 10-year notes and the market is far less certain of a warm welcome.

Not only are yields at historically low levels but the recent slide of the dollar, and thus the threat of foreign exchange losses, may discourage offshore investors.

Black Blade

(01/29/2003; 01:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 96091)

Stocks' stinky January bodes ill

http://www.bayarea.com/mld/cctimes/5047439.htm
Some fear a pattern in which markets' first-month performance is high point of a low year

Snippit:

The specter of a fourth-straight losing year for the stock markets is beginning to haunt investors, even if it's only January. A fourth straight market decline would be a dubious record, one of historic proportions. It would be a feat of futility last matched by the markets in 1929-1932, during the depths of the Great Depression. "We definitely could be looking at a fourth down year," said Libby Mihalka, principal owner of Altamont Capital, a financial-planning firm in Livermore. "There's still some unfinished business for this bear market," said Gregory Schultz, principal executive with Asset Allocation Advisors in Walnut Creek. "The 1990s was an era of excessive valuation. What's been happening is no more than correcting the excesses of previous years." "The consumer debt crisis could be a tangible problem if the economy continues to slow down," said Bruce Woods, president of Woods Financial & Insurance Services in Walnut Creek. "Although a lot of people have refinanced their homes, they have added debt to buy a new car, improve their home, take a vacation. But they could have a problem with all of that debt if they have a pay cut or lose their job."

Black Blade: I think we are looking at another down year for equities and possibly next year too. Debt is at record levels and there is no possible way to pay off this rising tide of debt without a complete economic crash. Energy prices will continue to rise as natural gas and electricity remain in short supply. A lot of people are in for a rude awakening. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months� expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

Black Blade

(01/29/2003; 01:47:21 MDT - Msg ID: 96092)

Euro Markets Awash In Red

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Euro markets are following Asian markets into negative territory.

- Black Blade

Knallgold

(01/29/2003; 01:56:08 MDT - Msg ID: 96093)

@FOA

Sir,if you have time to leave a quick update here it will be greatly appreciated,I guess not only by me.How is the garden ? :-)

Topaz

(01/29/2003; 02:05:29 MDT - Msg ID: 96094)

T-Yield update.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Cfvxy%2Ctnxy%2Cgcg03.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=15&go.y=14As I've been away awhile and just now catching up on things Golden I note some replies to Trojans post re: Jay Taylor and the "flation" question.
The three-act play we now find ourselves witnessing ie: >rampant disinflation > deflationary event > hyperinflation, would seem cast in stone imo...and no ammount of Fed "machinations" will change the order of the "acts".
Yes this weakening Dollar is prolonging act 1, however the collective T-Yields are and will trend south until there is NO logical reason to hold futures (Tomorrows) anything. All Yesterdays Dollars will attempt to convert to Todays Cash.
The analogous "Greed-Fear" will completely overwhelm the strictly digitous CB/Fed and a financial ground-zero mentality will prevail.
My consern is...will ALL the Six-packs - Joe, Jew, Jose etal be again willing to support another debt based currency a-la Euro given the fallout above?
We have in the past identified the Western "need" for this system to continue predicated on the property myth....the upcoming debacle will test this mindset absolutely.

slingshot

(01/29/2003; 02:12:20 MDT - Msg ID: 96095)

Siege Engine

Another/FOA Could you be on the Trail?
Slingshot-------------<>

slingshot

(01/29/2003; 02:26:42 MDT - Msg ID: 96096)

Topaz

Of course they will gravitate to the path of least resistance. Knowing only what has been told to them and far from them to think for themselves, if they are to escape punishment.
Slingshot------------<>

Artie Farkle

(01/29/2003; 03:06:39 MDT - Msg ID: 96097)

****370.2****

I would have to say that world pressure on the US$ will keep the POG going up for some time.

slingshot

(01/29/2003; 03:45:58 MDT - Msg ID: 96098)

Topaz

Well Topaz, we may assume to much.
Whatever flation you want to use the general public has no idea or conception. They only see what the money BUYS. Or How much they can accumulate. They have no conception of securing wealth. This Greed -Fear is exemplified from the run from stocks to bonds to treasuries and real estate or what have you. Completly disreguarding Gold. You may add tangible property to this category but what type would retain value. My good Fellow Knight, this forum thinks in terms the average persons can not see. Thus the hard times we get when we try to help others. They take the path of least resistance for they can't grasped the concept.There punishment is what they will recieve if they stray from the pack and that is wealth. For me I do not have the exotic terms to answer the questions with the answers they want to hear. I can only give them simple direct answers.I find also that those whose visit USAGOLD either do not understand or do not believe what is going on around them.
Slingshot----------<>

slingshot

(01/29/2003; 04:00:57 MDT - Msg ID: 96099)

Correction

I meant to say those who I have asked to visit USAGOLD. Please accept my Humble Apology.
Slingshot---------<> Oh Boy.

Topaz

(01/29/2003; 04:20:12 MDT - Msg ID: 96100)

slingshot.

I'm finding more people prepared to at least listen these days...and a few have acted on my advice. A far cry from 2 or 3 Yr's ago when any mention of Gold was met with derision. I think Y2K planted some seeds of doubt...these memories are now being acted upon in the form of physical uptake - not in large doses but sufficient for "insurance".
The Gold-centric view is reserved for but the few of us who, rightly or wrongly, endeavour to remain "outstanding".

Regards slingshot.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/29/2003; 04:28:45 MDT - Msg ID: 96101)

Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

"As a lurker for almost three years it was the opinion expressed on this board as well as other commentary that forced my wife and I to examine the sanity of playing with our life savings in the stock market casino. We bailed completely as the Nasdog was crossing 4400 heading south and immediately went to the physical...the rest is history. Gratitude is an understatment for that heads up. I can't even begin to fathom where we might be otherwise."--Harry Harrison, aka Skydog.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/29/2003; 04:33:35 MDT - Msg ID: 96102)

International clients: Please take note of our new toll free phone numbers

http://www.usagold.com/phone.htmlWe are pleased to pass along what our European clientele have been telling us -- that our pricing is superior to most of their banks and brokerage firms. Further, we support and encourage delivery of the gold while our competitors primarily promote certificate programs. With USAGOLD - Centennial you'll get a good price AND GET what you pay for!

From New Zealand to the Netherlands, from Australia to Austria, from the British Isles to the Great White North, we offer the service you want and the professionalism you need.

Let us help you with your next gold order.

Golden Bear

(01/29/2003; 04:48:44 MDT - Msg ID: 96103)

Rob McEwen of Goldcorp on Bloomberg...

just watching him discussing the supply deficit and that the emphasis is shifting from the jewellery trade to investors who are seeking wealth preservation...

Nothing new here, but some more exposure to the ill informed...

CoBra(too)

(01/29/2003; 04:56:35 MDT - Msg ID: 96104)

**** 377.70 ****

Guessing that 378 may be another level to be defended, while
372 may be taken out today or tomorrow.

Whatever, we are in a secular Gold Bull Market. No government or other entities will from here on out be able to suppress the POG for long. Global market forces are forming up to get the second leg of the golden Bull going in earnest. cb2

mas

(01/29/2003; 05:39:44 MDT - Msg ID: 96105)

****1,000.00****

Since the Euro is nicely set up at 340 and change and the dollar is about to take another drop off the cliff we should see some finer workings tonight.
I find it interesting that when studying the Euro/Gold price movement you can actually see the Dollar/Gold price reaction, strange, or as Sir Belgian says who's driving what when and how.
Can we change it to Euro's in next contest?

Boilermaker

(01/29/2003; 05:43:43 MDT - Msg ID: 96106)

When will they ever learn?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030129/economy_mortgages_4.htmlsnip:
"Despite all the uncertainty related to war and its impact on the economy, consumers continue to spend and use the equity from their homes to support that spending," said Christine Chmura, chief economist at Chmura Economics.

comment: Lots of grasshoppers and lemmings about to be stewed along with the folks who financed them.

Patriarchi

(01/29/2003; 06:24:00 MDT - Msg ID: 96107)

Gold price *******409.00****

Gold price for the week should approach ******409.00*****

After G. Bush's less than inspiring presentation last night, and now the move to a much lower dollar, gold will resume it's upward path before the public can join in.
The shorts on the comex are doomed as, as taking delivery of 10% of the contracts will explode the market.
You can take delivery of the physical gold in your account at the broker loan rate. Look for the delivery notices on the comex, to see what is going to occur.

From Patriarchi

Noble1

(01/29/2003; 06:28:05 MDT - Msg ID: 96108)

****376.4****

Reasons:
1) The continued failing/falling of the USD.
2) The return of ANOTHER/FOA to USAG reaching a wider, more receptive and inspired audience!

Remember: Gold always has been and will continue to be the ultimate store of wealth.

techbull....

(01/29/2003; 06:37:06 MDT - Msg ID: 96109)

******384.80******

To pick out the next event which will impact gold at this point will be near impossible. There are too many choices available, and too many yet unforseen. For all the reasons already mentioned by the wise folk on this forum, the world economy is bound to fail. I just hope that in the end there is still something to which gold can be valued.

Clink!

(01/29/2003; 07:06:23 MDT - Msg ID: 96110)

*** 373.4 ***

Sheesh ! It's getting crowded in here - hope I didn't get anyone with my big feet.

The next big thing is going to be when the CURRENT big thing stops. As Sector has pointed out, gold has been moving in a statistically DEAD STRAIGHT LINE for almost two months. This matches the DEAD STRAIGHT LINE decline of the dollar over the same period. Remember last year when everyone was crying 'manipulation !' from May to November ? Well, there the market was still wobbling up and down in a pennant - that's normal for a market, a straight line is not.

What is more interesting is that gold went up 17% to the dollar's decline of 7%, so it's not just a linear dollar relationship - the market wants more gold !

And the next big thing ? Well, Ananse took MY answer (shows I shouldn't have waited to the last minute !), so I'll just have to quote the line from Bonnie Tyler :-

We're living in a powder keg, giving off sparks.
I really need you tonight.

(I believe she must have been talking to her gold :>) )

Dollar Bill

(01/29/2003; 07:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 96111)

China is ok with thier CB keeping the gold price down

the black knave bill murphy, who THINKS he knows about central bank motives, says

"We have explained how the greater purpose of this market
rigging is the imperialism of the U.S. dollar and
the criminal expropriation of the developing world."

--Meanwhile, the Chinese, who USED to use words like "US imperialism", see things differently.

"The central bank has the right to intervene," an exchange
official said, declining further comment.
Traders said the central bank, the sole intermediary
between gold buyers and sellers until the exchange opened
in October, has maintained some control in hopes of
keeping end-products affordable for consumers by controlling
raw material prices.

Shanghai's average price on Tuesday was equivalent to
$365.20, lower than global spot prices (XAU=) of $368.00/8.50
in Asian trade as many processors had already bought enough
gold to produce ornaments and jewellery for the New Year
season.

Some traders said the central bank used gold from its
reserves to intervene. At the end of 2002, China's gold
reserves were 19.29 million ounces (546.9 million grammes),
up from 16.08 million ounces at the end of November.
"If domestic prices rise way above global markets, the
government is afraid that some companies might import
illegally and refine it to standard gold to sell domestically,"

Tonto

(01/29/2003; 07:43:30 MDT - Msg ID: 96112)

Confiscation

****$373.1**** My biggest fear is the goverment wanting our physical more than we do !! "Tonto"

Tevye

(01/29/2003; 07:47:54 MDT - Msg ID: 96113)

contest **** $373.7 ****

**** $373.7 ****
The most significant event for gold in the coming year is the growth of entries in these contests. Well actually, its the increased education and participation this fine forum offers to so many, many more than ever before. Besides most of the world event reasons are taken already, so I'll stick to milkman's reasoning. It matters whether my cup is empty or full. We can learn how to keep it full here.

Calidor

(01/29/2003; 08:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 96114)

**** $ 391.1 ****

The possibilities for one or more "interesting" events propelling gold are close at hand so it's a matter of 'when'. I'm not going to win any "style" points for this SWAG (Some Wild-A** Guess), but here goes. Take the fed gold and credit creation prices (add 42.22 & 36.00 - or was it 35.00?), divide in half, slide the decimal one place to the right.

By now my old Calculus professor must be hanging his head in shame. 8^)

Mr Gresham

(01/29/2003; 08:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 96115)

T 'n' T

It's really hard to get past my favorites and read the whole bunch before I open my big, fat Greek -- no, that's Zorba, not Fiddler...

Tevye -- lurkers coming out of the shadows is becoming a Tradition around here, no? Don't ya just love it!

Tonto -- "more than we do" -- I'm very tempted to say, as I'm sure you would, if Bill Clinton were the L.R., "It depends on the meaning of the word 'we', Kemo Sabe." (Sorry -- irresistible moment -- ;-) )

spook69

(01/29/2003; 08:08:16 MDT - Msg ID: 96116)

****370.80**** Waiting on the masses

Long time lurker that couldn't pass up another chance to win! Thanks to all the posters becaue I've gained a WEALTH of knowledge from your insights.

In my opinion the biggest event for POG (& PM Stocks) will be when the masses that are still holding on to growth, value, tech, etc. jump ship and make the move to the PM side. The big SM drop is coming, just a matter of when investors see through the fog and figure it out.

Good trading to all!

MidEastGold

(01/29/2003; 08:09:48 MDT - Msg ID: 96117)

******377.5******

Short and Sweet, the dollar will drop 2% and real money will continue to be real money. When gold returns to an investment in the eyes of the majority, look out, we haven't seen anything yet.

Boxman

(01/29/2003; 08:11:39 MDT - Msg ID: 96118)

Contest ****$375.30****

****$375.30****

As near as I can figure, the pros of gold continuing it's assault $400.00 to $32,000.00 (range of price I have read) vs the cons is 83 to 3. Since listing the pros and cons is to time consuming, I'll zero right in on my personal tipping point event, and that would be the price of oil. I believe the situation in Venezuala (I don't believe they will be able to furnish meaniful supplies of oil for a very long time) and Iraq means much higher prices at the pump and with peoples utility bills. This should hit people right between the eyes as to what is going to happen to their budgets and disposable income. The states will be unable to help the needy with these bills, as most of the states will be having a plethora of problelms with whopping budgets deficts, resulting in daily doses of hardship.

Americans have their heads in the sand most of their waking hours, but they will raise their heads and take notice when the above begins.

Hipplebeck

(01/29/2003; 08:14:45 MDT - Msg ID: 96119)

Are you morally corrupt? A quiz

Would you like to see a war start so that your investments will go up?
Do you think it's OK to kill someone because of something they MIGHT do in the future?
Is it OK to steal from someone because you need it and they don't really deserve it anyway?
Do you think it is OK for your government to keep dishonest accounting books because "governments just do that"?

The most important gold is in your heart.

R Powell

(01/29/2003; 08:27:29 MDT - Msg ID: 96120)

Questions please

The opening of gold ownership in China and the rising POG are clearly connected. There are many reasons why the POG is rising and the Chinese market is but one but possibly a strong one. Is silver also now available to those 1.2 billion potential buyers? If not, when will it become available?
Anyone know?

Town Crier, any more thoughts about the extention of the trading hours in China?
Thanks,
Rich

Au Brother

(01/29/2003; 08:29:42 MDT - Msg ID: 96121)

**** 375.70 ****

The next big development in gold will be of a technical nature when gold takes out the 1996 high of $414. When this occurs gold will have a new flock of followers and will be set up to take out the all time high of $850 soon afterwards.

Dollar Bill

(01/29/2003; 08:34:08 MDT - Msg ID: 96122)

Hmmm, is it in my interest to upend my best customer?

This below quote is from the Daily Reckoning. Bonnor.
Is this really the day that the countries of the world decide to shred the currency of thier best customer and hope someone new walks in to belly up to the bar and buy like Americans? Gata ninnies hope so, but central bankers have to act responsibly, even if they dont like thier neighbors advantages.

"The whole world is getting worried; it counts on the American consumer like a liquor store depends on alcoholics. There are better customers, maybe, but none more reliable.

More borrowing and spending may not do the consumer much good, but exporting nations love it. China, for example, welcomes Americans' weakness for consumption like the day's first customer.

Americans increased spending in each of the last three years. But each year, U.S. business profits fell, even while businesses were cutting back expenses sharply. Where did the money go? We need hardly ask the question, dear reader, for you already know the answer: it went to boost overseas economies."

**************$270.00******************:)

R Powell

(01/29/2003; 08:42:43 MDT - Msg ID: 96123)

******** $389 ********

Why? There's a little room left here and if everyone is correct with all the excellent reasons already given for hopefully much higher prices, then perhaps POG needs a good, fund-driven spike higher about now. We've been hanging around and retesting the 370-372 level long enough.
We've not yet entered mania-warp drive. This is still impulse power but all systems are online! The potential (probability) is increasing. Please keep back beyond the safety barriers.

R Powell

(01/29/2003; 08:44:07 MDT - Msg ID: 96124)

******** 389.0 *******

With the decimal point.

Boilermaker

(01/29/2003; 08:52:05 MDT - Msg ID: 96125)

Hmmm... Do I really want to run a business that depends on acoholics?

Problem with US consumerholics is they're paying with IOU's. Delirium tremens just around the corner.

Frank TWB

(01/29/2003; 08:53:39 MDT - Msg ID: 96126)

****371.45****

I believe there will be a short pull back and then resume the upward climb..

goldenboy

(01/29/2003; 08:57:16 MDT - Msg ID: 96127)

Why I Will Lose the Gold Price Guessing Contest

Well, being about the 4th lowest guess I am feeling a little sheepish for being so bearish. My rationale was that the cabal needed the low price to minimize their loss on the current contract. It is a contest I do not mine losing.
Guess you could say I just sold gold too short!

Boilermaker

(01/29/2003; 09:02:46 MDT - Msg ID: 96128)

********$374.8*********

The gold market will go ballistic when Dollar Bill gets bullish.
note to DB, Please let us know just before this happens.
Thanks,
Boilermaker

Neubie

(01/29/2003; 09:18:48 MDT - Msg ID: 96129)

****386.8****

I hate to say it, but the next big event for gold will be another catastrophic tragedy. The pressure of the international debtberg continues to build behind a dam of apathy. History bears out that tragedy is often the only instrument that moves people to action to change the immoral conditions surrounding them.

R Powell

(01/29/2003; 09:32:20 MDT - Msg ID: 96130)

Gandalf, loose the hounds!

Our mrci quote link is showing the CBOE volatility indicator up, the dollar down against other floating (sinking?) currencies and the price of oil up. POG is back up to almost unchanged.
I would think the dogs are barking to get out and have a run, no? They do need some exercise and I've figured out from the recent action of POG that you usually let them loose about this time of day.
Is it time?

canamami

(01/29/2003; 09:34:04 MDT - Msg ID: 96131)

**********372.80************

The next big event? I won't count Iraq: too obvious. I'll say the monthly report of China's official reserves. If China bought again in January, watch out. In the same vein, any significant purchase of gold by a cb would be of great significance.

Zhisheng

(01/29/2003; 09:37:19 MDT - Msg ID: 96132)

Silver Lining (Boilermaker msg#: 96125)

It is said that there are two occasions when a human acquires nigh simian versatility with his feet: the first as a new-born infant, the other when he is in the throes of acute delirium tremens.

Calidor

(01/29/2003; 09:56:33 MDT - Msg ID: 96133)

"Au" Contraire Goldenboy (msg#: 96127)

And yes, a pun on "Au". Groannnnn.

"Guess you could say I just sold gold too short!" Gordie Brown - now HE can say he sold gold too short.

We've spent nothing and lost nothing on our guesses. And the many contributors have enlightened me (so much so that my brain usually hurts after reading a day's postings). Thanks to the collective knowledge of this discussion board, I am better prepared for what may lie ahead.

Kindest regards to all,
Calidore

Cytek

(01/29/2003; 10:00:22 MDT - Msg ID: 96134)

***** $378.20 *****

The NEXT important gold development. I looked in my crystal ball and it said that once war starts, the POG will come down but them Saddam will unlease one of his weapons and all H... will break loose.

Bound Spirit

(01/29/2003; 10:02:16 MDT - Msg ID: 96135)

********$372.9********

The next big event to impact gold will be the reaction to GW's speech. I don't know if I heard him correctly but I think he said "Gold is not something the US gives to the world, Gold is what God gives to humanity"

Canuck Gold

(01/29/2003; 10:10:39 MDT - Msg ID: 96136)

****371.6****

It would appear as if the gold price is being allowed to rise in a slow, controlled manner, to avoid anyone paying attention. It has gone up for 8 weeks in a row and I don't think this week will be any different. The pundits have deluded themselves into believing that the price rise is due to the Iraq situation and that Stock Markets have hit bottom. People are being conned into believing that gold will drop and the SMs will rise as soon as war breaks out. They and TPTB don't want anything upsetting their grand scheme to keep the general public gambling in the markets until they have nothing left to give. They'll do anything to deter a switch to gold or gold stocks. I've been trying to open the eyes of family and friends to what is developing for years with limited success, even after three down years in a row, but there is too much propaganda out there. They don't know what to believe but they seem unwilling to investigate for themselves. What's that old saying - 'You can lead a horse to water........'

CG

Ole Man

(01/29/2003; 10:12:36 MDT - Msg ID: 96137)

*********************372.70*********************

POG impact events are difficult at best during these uncertain times. Pundits predict further declines in the market (DJI). So I would say that the insiduous onset of panic by general public is yet to fully materialize as the run for coverhits. Major price increase as orientals lead the way, imho.

Buongiorno!

(01/29/2003; 10:19:04 MDT - Msg ID: 96138)

(No Subject)

All the chips are out on the table, so the trolls will do most anything to blunt this advance. However, I think they shall be overwhelmed, just not this week. So, hang on to yer hats, mates, it's going to be a great ride sometime this year. One misstep and the trolls go through the thin ice!BUONGIORNO!

Buongiorno!

(01/29/2003; 10:20:39 MDT - Msg ID: 96139)

*****377.90*****

Ah yes, the price!

Draco

(01/29/2003; 10:33:41 MDT - Msg ID: 96140)

*****372.4*****

Although gold is doing well trading on fundamentals of supply and demand as well as various global uncertainties (war in Iraq, Japans banking system, South America,etc.), the next event to send gold "to da moon" will be the average Joe discovering that gold is the only thing left to preserve what savings he/she has left. This should happen some time this year as world economic and geopolitical events unfold. Time is short but it's not too late to book passage on the "Lunar Express".

cyberbat

(01/29/2003; 10:46:59 MDT - Msg ID: 96141)

They have struck

The cabal has enough dollars to endlessly strike spot.
Down 3.50 and dropping. Sinclair may have had it backwards.

Daniel Druff

(01/29/2003; 10:47:46 MDT - Msg ID: 96142)

*******374..5******* or higher if necessary

There is not enough gold in the world, at these prices, to satisfy the NEW Chinese demand. They are already experiencing supply problems in the administration of their new exchange.

Before long, the world will become aware of the insatiable demand for the yellow metal coming out of the far east. Those of us who have been blessed with just a modicum of foresight will be tickled pink to have gold in hand.

Back of the envelop calculations...please don't hesitate to correct:

1,300,000,000 people in China alone and growing
100,000,000 is 7.7% or so
100,000,000 ounces = 6,250,000 lbs
6,250,000 lbs = 3,125 short tons for this bit

GATA says the Bullion Banks are short 10-15,000 tonnes
The World Gold Group or whatever, says 5,000 tonnes

5,000 to 15,000, who cares! Somebody is in very serious financial trouble. They'd better hope the Chinese close their gold exchange or limit size-of-purchase to one gram per customer, SOON!

Thank you

Hang Tuff

(01/29/2003; 10:48:25 MDT - Msg ID: 96143)

*****373.3***** Hang Tuff

George Bush is determined to go to war no matter what and I think Gold will do up along with a VERY weak dollar.

Boilermaker

(01/29/2003; 10:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 96144)

Zhisheng msg#: 96132 DT's

We'll know for sure when we see some consumerholics hanging from trees.

Bad guys beating up on us poor goldbugs today. Get em Spot! Sic em Spike!

Chap X aka GOLDen Greek

(01/29/2003; 11:03:12 MDT - Msg ID: 96145)

********$370************

The continued pressure on the dollar, the economy, earnings, and on and on..... but as Another said, when the cb's stop selling that will be THE event.......

knotakare

(01/29/2003; 11:03:29 MDT - Msg ID: 96146)

Cyberbat

You said "The cabal has enough dollars to endlessly strike spot."

What do you base this conclusion on? You don't provide any evidence.

You sound like one of those nervous Nellies Sinclair often speaks about. You have it all wrong about the so-called cabal. Those on the short side of this gold bull market have problems. But they use disinformation, such as you just spouted, as a counter measure.

Your satement is ridiculous, based on looking at the gold chart. You will be nervously watching on the sidelines while the Bulls are making good profits.

If you are trying to day-trade in this environment , LOL. You probably believe the gold price has a large "war" premium. Again, LOL.

Belgian

(01/29/2003; 11:03:36 MDT - Msg ID: 96147)

China Gold.....>>> Free Gold ?

Mega dollar-exporter, China, has an enormous surplus of incoming dollars and buys Goldreserves for these dollars.
Then these Gold-Echange-Reserves are sold (distibuted) to the chinese people in exchange for their local currency, renmimbi (yuan). When there's more dollar-confetti earned with hard labor, production of real goods and services, the surplusses (wealth) are exchanged again for Gold to be added to the reserves ! How nice !

Rich, hard working nations accumulate physical Gold Wealth in the vaults of their CB and sell to the people when found appropiate.

This results in having a store of wealth at two levels, the individual and state. Dollars, earned are recycled and the local currency is managed internally with the trade of physical Gold between the state and its citizens. The floating amount of yuan en Gold are regulated according to circumstances.

The China state doesn't has to issue bonds and pay interest.
The savings are done in Free Tradable Physical Only Gold, where the price always follows the expansion/contraction of currency volume (exchange rate).

Just imagine that a part of the global 38 TRILLION bond-volume would be replaced by Free Gold, without interest but with a *protective* price-compensation !!!! REAL SAVINGS WITH REAL WEALTH...what a dream-scenario !

Alberta Rose

(01/29/2003; 11:04:21 MDT - Msg ID: 96148)

*****371.10

The most important development in the coming weeks will be the continued buying from China and Japan which will soak up massive amounts of physical. However, the $370 level will be defended with everything The Powers That Be have at their disposal. It has been quite entertaining looking at the charts this week and seeing the dingdong battle going on at $370.

I want to thank everyone on this formum for the education that I have gained in the past three years on monetary matters. My husband and I farm in an increasingly difficult environment and I didn't really know why agriculture was in such desperate shape until I started to understand the underlying economic currents. It has really been an eye-opener. Hopefully, we have stockpiled enough physical to wait out the bad times. Farmers are used to toughing it out.

Wky_Woodsman

(01/29/2003; 11:05:34 MDT - Msg ID: 96149)

Contest

*****$369.4*****

The next big event for gold will be the U.S. military invasion to control the oil in the region that is/will be producing 50% of the world's oil. Will the Arab countries under which that oil is located allow this to take place? Will the Euro countries allow this to take place? Will Russia let it happen? Will China? We are about to find out.

Meanwhile I will trade "sea stories" with Sir Slingshot as I sit close by him.

Truthcaster

(01/29/2003; 11:18:58 MDT - Msg ID: 96150)

Gold And Stocks

How fast can things change in 30 minutes?
It's funny I came out for lunch and heard
that the dow was down about 105 points
and saw gold up ten cents. I ate my lunch
and thought I would look again at the markets
and now the dow is down 5 points and gold is
off five dollars.. What is going on?
Did we win the War with Iraq and I missed It.
;o) Thanks Back to work....

Mexican

(01/29/2003; 11:29:25 MDT - Msg ID: 96152)

****$363.90****

Greetings Gandalf!

MX

Gandalf the White

(01/29/2003; 11:31:24 MDT - Msg ID: 96154)

POG Contest

Tick Tock -- LESS than 30 Minutes to go before the ENTRY DEADLINE at HIGH NOON Denver time !
<;-)

Daniel Druff

(01/29/2003; 11:31:50 MDT - Msg ID: 96155)

BELGIAN'S #96147

A must read...outstanding!

Thank you

Dollar Bill

(01/29/2003; 11:32:14 MDT - Msg ID: 96156)

Report from Davos Switzwerland Conference

Stephan Roach of Morgan Stanley filed this report
it is edited for the forum.

"Most of us tend to analyze globalization from rather comfortable perches -- and in relative isolation. During the five days of the annual World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland becomes a real-time laboratory of globalization.

Few took issue with my view that the non-US portion of the world economy was in trouble. Europe was singled out for special attention by this heavily European group. Lacking in domestic demand, an ever-strengthening euro was feared to be choking off external demand, Euroland's sole surviving source of growth. With structural reforms lagging and pro-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies reinforcing the downside, Europe was increasingly viewed as caught in a vise.
I was struck by the seemingly paradoxical perceptions of Pax Americana that were evident at Davos: The world may be resisting the US tilt toward geopolitical power, but it is more than willing to accept the crutch of US-centric support for the global economy.

I pushed the case for deflation hard but my concerns rang largely on deaf ears. Most believe that the US authorities had ample ammunition to stave off this threat, even if the Federal Reserve ran out of basis points with its main policy instrument. In my view, until domestic demand comes to life in the developing world, the globalization of both tradable goods and the so-called non-tradable services will continue to exert a powerful deflationary impact on a sluggish industrial world. For that reason, alone, aggregate demand growth in the industrial world needs to run a good deal faster that normal -- precisely the opposite of conditions prevailing today.

There is no widely accepted script or theory of globalization. We're all basically making it up as we go along. But there are some obvious bumps in the road that surfaced this year in Davos. For years, the main critique of globalization from abroad has been that it is in danger of becoming the functional equivalent of the Americanization of standards, institutions, and the rules of cross-border transfer. That was certainly a critical aspect of the Asian backlash to the financial crisis of 1997-98. But now in early 2003, the concerns over globalization have taken a new twist. Paradoxically, a weak world economy welcomes a renewal of US-led global growth but it resists America's geopolitical and military power. Moreover, there is good reason to believe that successes in the developing world may well deepen the world's deflationary biases. In the long run, the case for globalization is hard to refute. It's the short run -- and apparently the medium term -- which is proving so problematic."

Gandalf the White

(01/29/2003; 11:36:06 MDT - Msg ID: 96157)

Sir Mexican --- Sneaking in there between my posts, but I got you !

guten Tag !!
<;-)

Mr Gresham

(01/29/2003; 11:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 96158)

Sinclair on MK & Sector

http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/general/2003/january.htm#0128Largely agreeing with this weekend's commentary on Prechter, Elliot, and market forces.

Belgian -- I hadn't thought of that (nor had anyone mentioned) -- no Chinese government bonds? Hmmmmm....

So, they're doing everything internally via their currency -- and real assets? Kind of the un-Fed? (Think 7-Up's "Un-Cola" commercial here). Is their Central Bank not a CB in the BOE/Fed model? Wouldn't THAT be an upheaving development???

cyberbat

(01/29/2003; 11:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 96159)

@knotacare

Sorry Sir,
You are wrong on all counts. No cigar for you today.
Proof? The stock market is not faring well at all. The Euro is trading high against the dollar. The good Prez just told you last nite that there are going to be uncollected Billions spent this year increasing the deficit. All currencies are debasing their value in a race to the bottom. Sinclair just told you last night that they would short the gold stocks before we attack Iraq. There's your proof that gold should be going thru the roof. Now you show me some proof (circumstancial or otherwise) that the hedgers are NOT shorting gold and paper.
By the way; I have been in this market since 1979. I have yet to sell one penny worth of physical or paper.
I impatiently await your proof now.

Gandalf the White

(01/29/2003; 11:43:05 MDT - Msg ID: 96160)

**** $380.0 ****

The HOBBITS have FINALLY made their choice!
And the next HAPPENING is "Joe 6Pak" sees the LIGHT !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/29/2003; 11:47:26 MDT - Msg ID: 96161)

INVALID ENTRIES --- Please check and retry !!

INVALID ENTRIES ---- PLEASE check and RE-ENTER (if you can in time)

Prior Chosen Number -----PLEASE re-Enter !

mdgc (1/28/03; 21:43:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 96057)
pog January 31
****$385.0****

CoBra(too) (1/29/03; 04:56:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 96104)
**** 377.70 ****

Hang Tuff (01/29/03; 10:48:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 96143)
*****373.3*****

--
Rule #3 Error

Frank TWB (1/29/03; 08:53:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 96126)
****371.45****

Cytek

(01/29/2003; 11:59:17 MDT - Msg ID: 96162)

From the World Gold Councel

"The Hong Kong market will be closed tomorrow through to Tuesday for the celebration of the Lunar New year and the
Shanghai Gold Exchange will be closed for tomorrow through to February 7th. New Year's day is this Saturday and this
year is the year of the goat (or sheep, ram).

European Commissioner Solbes has said that he is concerned aboutthe speed of the euro's recent rise and the German government has shaved its forecast of 2003 growth to 1.0% (on the assumption that there is no war in the Middle East), but the over-powering sentiment is currently directed against the dollar."

Cytek - wonder how this will affect the POG over the next week.

Graefin

(01/29/2003; 12:01:03 MDT - Msg ID: 96163)

pog

$$$$$$378.60$$$$$
jan.31

Gandalf the White

(01/29/2003; 12:07:50 MDT - Msg ID: 96164)

POG CONTEST entries are now CLOSED !

I shall squeeze you in Contessa !
<;-)

Graefin

(01/29/2003; 12:14:10 MDT - Msg ID: 96165)

(No Subject)

thanx Gandalf <;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/29/2003; 12:46:47 MDT - Msg ID: 96167)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

FINAL LISTING in the COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !

THANKS to ALL that participated, and I am sorry to not have been able to catch the INVALID entries and notify those in time ! The Town Crier and I are "working" on a MAGIC LINK technique for future CONTESTS ! Cross your fingers ! <;-)

QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003: THE ENTRY DEADLINE was HIGH NOON Denver time on Wednesday 1/29/03 !!!!!!

===

155 ..... TOTAL ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

======

VALID ENTRIES

****$1,000.0**** mas (1/29/03; 05:39:44MT - msg#: 96105

**** $888.8 **** physicalman (1/28/03; 22:00:08MT - msg#: 96066

**** $750.0 **** Caradoc (1/17/03; 10:49:20MT - msg#: 94778

**** $583.7 **** valsteve11 (1/26/03; 14:43:17MT - msg#: 95718

**** $480.3 **** Cometose (1/23/03; 10:01:34MT - msg#: 95329

**** $471.0 **** PorterSweden (1/26/03; 12:26:36MT - msg#: 95705

**** $470.0 **** Ananse (1/28/03; 21:49:08MT - msg#: 96060

**** $435.5 **** ElGordo (1/27/03; 13:12:19MT - msg#: 95866

**** $427.4 **** rsjacksr (1/24/03; 09:47:47MT - msg#: 95443

**** $426.2 **** drawmax (1/20/03; 08:09:53MT - msg#: 94990)

**** $425.5 **** 1340cc (1/27/03; 10:43:51MT - msg#: 95846

**** $419.4 **** The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - msg#: 94798

**** $415.0 **** madgreek (1/27/03; 20:00:34MT - msg#: 95907

**** $413.5 **** Farfel (01/26/03; 22:39:08MT - msg#: 95760

**** $409.0 **** Patriarchi (1/29/03; 06:24:00MT - msg#: 96107

**** $407.8 **** Believer (1/27/03; 14:51:36MT - msg#: 95877

**** $404.5 **** Magister Aurelius (1/23/03; 10:23:42MT - msg#: 95332

**** $403.5 **** misetich (1/17/03; 18:25:29MT - msg#: 94815

**** $402.1 **** Humble Pie (01/28/03; 10:18:28MT - msg#: 95979

**** $400.0 **** Sundeck (1/17/03; 04:25:05MT - msg#: 94737
**** $399.9 **** Nibelung (1/27/03; 14:55:54MT - msg#: 95879

**** $399.4 **** Clint H (1/27/03; 08:46:56MT - msg#: 95825

**** $398.8 **** Beach (1/25/03; 14:37:16MT - msg#: 95611

**** $396.4 **** Bulldog (1/17/03; 20:05:57MT - msg#: 94825

**** $395.1 **** Pizz (1/23/03; 10:48:12MT - msg#: 95337

**** $392.2 **** omegaman (1/25/03; 00:21:10MT - msg#: 95553

**** $391.1 **** Calidor (1/29/03; 08:07:43MT - msg#: 96114
**** $391.0 **** G$ (1/28/03; 20:55:15MT - msg#: 96051

**** $390.0 **** Galerider (01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - msg#: 94724)

**** $389.0 **** R Powell (1/29/03; 08:44:07MT - msg#: 96124

**** $388.8 **** Shanti (01/24/03; 10:20:12MT - msg#: 95448

**** $387.5 **** knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - msg#: 94800

**** $386.8 **** Neubie (1/29/03; 09:18:48MT - msg#: 96129

**** $386.2 **** Basil (1/26/03; 01:04:02MT - msg#: 95645

**** $386.0 **** Gondolin (1/27/03; 10:03:02MT - msg#: 95838

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (1/17/03; 05:12:59MT - msg#: 94738

**** $385.0 **** darkhorse (1/28/03; 20:37:51MT - msg#: 96045

**** $384.8 **** techbull.... (1/29/03; 06:37:06MT - msg#: 96109

**** $384.5 **** Tate (1/25/03; 08:24:55MT - msg#: 95574

**** $383.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - msg#: 94791

**** $382.8 **** goldquest (1/28/03; 21:49:49MT - msg#: 96061

**** $382.5 **** Hipplebeck (1/18/03; 06:47:33MT - msg#: 94850

**** $382.2 **** Goldendome (1/28/03; 20:07:58MT - msg#: 96038

**** $381.4 **** Gold Standard (1/27/03; 00:26:40MT - msg#: 95774)

**** $381.2 **** BlackBart (01/28/03; 15:48:23MT - msg#: 96013

**** $381.0 **** Camel (01/24/03; 18:38:52MT - msg#: 95519

**** $380.5 **** Waverider (1/28/03; 22:26:07MT - msg#: 96073

**** $380.2 **** pinetree (1/23/03; 09:04:28MT - msg#: 95322

**** $380.0 **** Gandalf the White (01/29/03; 11:43:05MT - msg#: 96160

**** $379.8 **** gvc (1/27/03; 10:56:00MT - msg#: 95849

**** $379.5 **** Aggie (1/28/03; 20:14:14MT - msg#: 96041

**** $379.3 **** donnemuir (1/26/03; 09:39:48MT - msg#: 95673

**** $379.1 **** ha_tey_o (1/17/03; 07:24:56MT - msg#: 94741

**** $378.9 **** erayboy (1/17/03; 03:05:04MT - msg#: 94729
**** $378.8 **** miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - msg#: 94805

**** $378.6 **** Graefin (01/29/03; 12:01:03MT - msg#: 96163

**** $378.4 **** kramrich (1/28/03; 22:23:40MT - msg#: 96071
**** $378.3 **** Trojan (01/28/03; 12:17:13MT - msg#: 95989
**** $378.2 **** Cytek (01/29/03; 10:00:22MT - msg#: 96134
**** $378.1 **** a nation of one (01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - msg#: 94720

**** $377.9 **** Buongiorno! (01/29/03; 10:20:39MT - msg#: 96139

**** $377.7 **** BILLYG (1/28/03; 21:57:15MT - msg#: 96065
**** $377.6 **** Scarab (1/27/03; 22:04:42MT - msg#: 95921
**** $377.5 **** MidEastGold (1/29/03; 08:09:48MT - msg#: 96117
.
**** $377.3 **** DoubleEagle (1/28/03; 17:30:09MT - msg#: 96023

**** $377.0 **** Frosty (01/24/03; 18:01:40MT - msg#: 95516

**** $376.8 **** goldenpeace (1/27/03; 09:23:19MT - msg#: 95829

**** $376.6 **** otish mountain (1/29/03; 00:03:01MT - msg#: 96085

**** $376.4 **** Noble1 (1/29/03; 06:28:05MT - msg#: 96108

**** $376.2 **** GoldenSun (1/23/03; 09:26:38MT - msg#: 95325

**** $376.0 **** Max Rabbitz (1/27/03; 11:16:23MT - msg#: 95853

**** $375.7 **** Au Brother (1/29/03; 08:29:42MT - msg#: 96121

**** $375.5 **** balzac (1/18/03; 14:15:59MT - msg#: 94880

**** $375.3 **** Boxman (1/29/03; 08:11:39MT - msg#: 96118

**** $375.0 **** Mountain Top (1/19/03; 10:56:32MT - msg#: 94937

**** $374.8 **** Boilermaker (1/29/03; 09:02:46MT - msg#: 96128

**** $374.6 **** harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - msg#: 94792
**** $374.5 **** Daniel Druff (01/29/03; 10:47:46MT - msg#: 96142
**** $374.4 **** silvergolong (1/28/03; 09:07:26MT - msg#: 95968

**** $374.1 **** Slowman (1/17/03; 06:10:05MT - msg#: 94739
**** $374.0 **** Zhisheng (1/17/03; 09:53:34MT - msg#: 94762

**** $373.7 **** Tevye (1/29/03; 07:47:54MT - msg#: 96113

**** $373.5 **** kahulik (01/20/03; 11:08:21MT - msg#: 94998
**** $373.4 **** Clink! (1/29/03; 07:06:23MT - msg#: 96110
**** $373.3 **** mikal (1/28/03; 23:22:09MT - msg#: 96081

**** $373.1**** Tonto (1/29/03; 07:43:30MT - msg#: 96112
**** $373.0 **** Genoo (1/28/03; 16:59:55MT - msg#: 96015)
**** $372.9 **** Bound Spirit (01/29/03; 10:02:16MT - msg#: 96135
**** $372.8 **** canamami (1/29/03; 09:34:04MT - msg#: 96131
**** $372.7 **** SWEET 16 (01/28/03; 09:59:59MT - msg#: 95975

**** $372.5 **** timbervision (1/28/03; 21:25:30MT - msg#: 96054
**** $372.4 **** Draco (01/29/03; 10:33:41MT - msg#: 96140

**** $372.2 **** Houston (1/19/03; 10:30:11MT - msg#: 94934
**** $372.1 **** NTgeo (1/28/03; 18:59:21MT - msg#: 96032
**** $372.0 **** OZ (1/17/03; 02:14:25MT - msg#: 94727
**** $371.9 **** silvercollector (1/22/03; 05:15:12MT - msg#: 95191
**** $371.8 **** Time For GOLD (1/22/03; 11:17:36MT - msg#: 95211

**** $371.6 **** Canuck Gold (01/29/03; 10:10:39MT - msg#: 96136
**** $371.5 **** Tranquility Base (1/27/03; 22:32:33MT - msg#: 95925

**** $371.2 **** Achilles (1/23/03; 09:27:54MT - msg#: 95326
**** $371.1 **** Alberta Rose (01/29/03; 11:04:21MT - msg#: 96148
**** $371.0 **** MapleLeaf (1/28/03; 21:26:48MT - msg#: 96055
**** $370.9 **** Richman (1/22/03; 11:18:21MT - msg#: 95212
**** $370.8 **** spook69 (1/29/03; 08:08:16MT - msg#: 96116
**** $370.7 **** Broken Tee (1/27/03; 13:21:07MT - msg#: 95868
**** $370.6 **** sector (01/28/03; 10:58:10MT - msg#: 95981
**** $370.5 **** VanRip (1/17/03; 07:59:23MT - msg#: 94747
**** $370.4 **** The Knife (1/26/03; 06:14:53MT - msg#: 95652
**** $370.3 **** Casey (01/23/03; 13:32:42MT - msg#: 95349
**** $370.2 **** Artie Farkle (1/29/03; 03:06:39MT - msg#: 96097
**** $370.1 **** Black Blade (1/23/03; 10:00:48MT - msg#: 95328
**** $370.0 **** Chap X aka GOLDen Greek (01/29/03; 11:03:12MT - msg#: 96145
**** $369.9 **** Ole Man (1/18/03; 23:30:28MT - msg#: 94912
**** $369.8 **** MoonHowler (1/28/03; 06:47:06MT - msg#: 95954
**** $369.7 **** Yellow Metal (01/28/03; 14:45:51MT - msg#: 96005
**** $369.6 **** Prometheus (1/28/03; 20:42:55MT - msg#: 96047
**** $369.5 **** Truthcaster (1/23/03; 09:18:53MT - msg#: 95323
**** $369.4 **** Wky_Woodsman (01/29/03; 11:05:34MT - msg#: 96149

**** $369.2 **** slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - msg#: 94796

**** $369.0 **** wiley (01/21/03; 12:21:41MT - msg#: 95102

**** $368.7 **** Toolie (01/23/03; 20:26:50MT - msg#: 95394

**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750

**** $368.2 **** Zelts (01/21/03; 07:34:30MT - msg#: 95080

**** $367.8 **** Woodie (1/28/03; 19:37:45MT - msg#: 96037

**** $367.4 **** Kagalaska (01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - msg#: 94721

**** $367,0 **** Trurl (1/28/03; 19:28:55MT - msg#: 96036

**** $366.7 **** seagull (1/27/03; 00:14:48MT - msg#: 95772

**** $366.0 **** White Rose (01/21/03; 09:29:59MT - msg#: 95093

**** $365.6 **** Shermag (1/26/03; 07:59:54MT - msg#: 95660

**** $365.2 **** pilgrims_gold (1/18/03; 10:01:47MT - msg#: 94863

**** $365.0 **** monTROZ (01/20/03; 12:50:24MT - msg#: 95005

**** $364.2 **** Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - msg#: 94755

**** $363.9 **** Mexican (01/29/03; 11:29:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 96152)

**** $363.5 **** Electrum (1/28/03; 18:43:51MT - msg#: 96028

**** $363.0 **** luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - msg#: 94795

**** $362.5 **** EagleOne (1/18/03; 14:02:13MT - msg#: 94877

**** $362.3 **** Renny (1/18/03; 05:15:47MT - msg#: 94848

**** $362.0 **** Albatros (01/21/03; 07:48:42MT - msg#: 95081

**** $361.7 **** mudr (01/23/03; 20:19:27MT - msg#: 95391

**** $361.1 **** Lothar of the Hill People (01/20/03; 13:51:40MT - msg#: 95013

**** $360.8 **** Liberty Head (01/20/03; 19:45:52MT - msg#: 95040

**** $360.5 **** Felix the Cat (1/20/03; 03:35:20MT - msg#: 94984

**** $360.0 **** Henri (1/18/03; 15:28:31MT - msg#: 94886

**** $359.7 **** Alaskan hunter (01/23/03; 14:12:45MT - msg#: 95355

**** $359.1 **** 24carat (1/18/03; 16:10:36MT - msg#: 94889

**** $358.0 **** makcumka (1/20/03; 05:44:13MT - msg#: 94987

**** $357.6 **** goldenboy (01/21/03; 09:16:39MT - msg#: 95092

**** $355.1 **** MO VER MEG (1/26/03; 08:24:25MT - msg#: 95663

**** $348.0 **** Topaz (1/17/03; 03:06:48MT - msg#: 94730

**** $270.0 **** Dollar Bill (1/29/03; 08:34:08MT - msg#: 96122

**** $203.0 **** Around The Corner (01/24/03; 11:01:41MT - msg#: 95452

===
INVALID ENTRIES

ONE -- Prior Chosen -----PLEASE re-Enter !

mdgc (1/28/03; 21:43:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 96057)
pog January 31
****$385.0****

CoBra(too) (1/29/03; 04:56:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 96104)
**** 377.70 ****

Hang Tuff (01/29/03; 10:48:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 96143)
*****373.3*****

--
Rule #3

Frank TWB (1/29/03; 08:53:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 96126)
****371.45****
THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.
---

THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February �03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 -----

The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old) goldpiece !!
Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin was Minted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce. (Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)
---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
(Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 = $358.1 + $7.0 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a Low = $350.0
1/17/03 = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a Low = $355.3 and Sir ROCK was "King of the Hill" !
1/21/03 = $357.5 + $0.7 with a HIGH = $358.1 and a Low = $353.4 and Sir Goldenboy was "KING of the HILL"
1/22/03 = $359.9 + $2.4 with a HIGH = $360.4 and a Low = $357.8 and Sir Henri was "KING of the HILL!"
1/23/03 = $364.6 + $4.7 with a HIGH = $367.7 and a Low = $360.0 and ... WOWSERS .. A TIE !!
.......................................................BOTH Sir monTROZ & Sir Rock were "KINGS of the Hill !!!"
1/24/03 = $368.4 + $3.8 with a HIGH = $370.2 and a Low = $362.8 and Sir J-Bullion" was "KING of the HILL!"
1/27/03 = $369.4 + $1.0 with a HIGH = $373.7 and a Low = $367.8 and Sir Truthcaster is "King of the HILL!"
1/28/03 = $370.0 + $0.6 with a HIGH = $370.2 and a Low = $365.5 and ... WOWSERS .. ANOTHER TIE !!
................................................BOTH Sir Black Blade and SIR Ole Man were "KINGS of the HILL!"
1/29/03 = $366.3 - $3.7 with a HIGH = $371.2 and a Low = $365.5 and ...............
GOLDHEART White Rose is "King of the Hill!"

====
<;-)

The Traveler

(01/29/2003; 12:53:50 MDT - Msg ID: 96168)

@Belgian #96046

For the sake of simplicity, let us assume that the fate of the current US$ is exactly what most here postulate (expect): eventual collapse due to over leverage with domestic hyper-inflation and international devaluation being the primary results. I would note for the record that other outcomes are possible but that this is the more probable.

So where will the world turn in order to find a new transaction currency to carry on global trade? Remember, China must still export its cheap goods and the Arabians must still export their oil. Voila the Euro!

The Euro is up and functioning currently and has a new and improved strategy for gold in its monetary regime: promote a Free Market for Gold and revalue the gold reserve assets of the ECB quarterly (mark-to-market) so that the liabilities of the ECB (currency in circulation, etc.) may be expanded when gold rises or contracted on those rare occasions when the free market POG declines. Although the Euro is 15% covered by gold, it is still not convertible on demand by anyone (a fiat currency by any other name).

By having promoted the Euro ahead of the US$'s eventual collapse to the Arabian oil interests and other trading blocs, Euroland will now possess the "exorbitant privilege" inherent in a reserve currency - the ability to receive hard assets like commodities, goods and services in exchange for colorful paper (fiat currency). Yes, the Euro bankers promise to be more independent and honest stewards of the currency but political will of the demanding electorate (socialists all, yes?) can never be ignored.

But does anyone expect America to go quietly from the scene? Heavens no! Despite a ruined currency, it still has many valuable attributes to marshal for currency war II. It has a very well developed infrastructure (roads, rails, ports, utilities, etc.), a reasonably predictable rule of law that functions across all fifty states, a mighty military and a flexible work force to name but a few. Unlike Euroland, America has a better homogenized population that does not carry generations of grudges against its neighbors. Economically, America and its consumers will be debt free (hyper-inflated away) and the trade balance will be cured (devalued away). And perhaps most important of all, America will retain its high tech edge that leads to new and wonderful products. Note: By no means am I implying the "adjustment" will not be brutal to most.

Save for oil imports (even after severe rationing America will still need to import seven million barrels daily), America is relatively self-sufficient. It can feed itself and defend itself.

So all America needs is a functioning currency to "rise from the ashes" of all the paper that burned. Still in possession of 8,140 tonnes of gold in Fort Knox (we are told) with more available from domestic mines and more still in legal tender gold eagles and other non legal tender coins in private hands, America could create the peso like domestic currency that has no gold cover and the international $ for use only in global trade. In order to compete against the Euro, it would match the design of the Euro (15% or better gold cover, quarterly mark to market etc.) but then promote America's strengths that were enumerated above.

In order to gain global acceptance post devaluation, America will exchange old dollars HELD BY FORIEGNORS for new international dollars at par � the old make whole concept. By no means any easy task, but who wants to be an enemy of America?

So why two US currencies � one gold covered the other not? With $5 trillion to $8 trillion in old US$ and USG debt held by foreigners needing to be made whole and with an expected monthly outflow to purchase (import) oil, the current gold on-hand is enough to only cover the international $. For example, the POG at $3,000 would only cover $5 trillion in new international $ at 15%.

For the purists here, this is why a new currency will never be fully covered much less convertible. At $10,000 per ounce and 100% covered, only $2.6 trillion of new currency could be created. This obviously is inadequate to make whole America's key trading partners much less have any currency for domestic use.

Final note: Unless traveling overseas ($10m limit) or engaging in international trade, it will be illegal for Americans to own the international $. Strict controls will insure that Americans use only the peso-like $. For example, licenses will be needed to import / export in I$ and domestic banks will not accept deposits in the I$.

Still, possession of physical gold will be the wealth builder par excellence!

Hope this broad outline helps.

Are you giant-like yet?

Magister Aurelius

(01/29/2003; 13:09:02 MDT - Msg ID: 96169)

Any delivery delays on COMEX contracts today?

Have there been any delivery delays on COMEX contracts for gold and silver today that might explain the decline in the POG and POS??

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/29/2003; 13:10:59 MDT - Msg ID: 96170)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/29/2003; 13:21:25 MDT - Msg ID: 96171)

The Fruit of Your Labor: Another day, another . . . dollar?

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Harvest Time
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TownCrier

(01/29/2003; 13:29:53 MDT - Msg ID: 96172)

For the Record: Today's FOMC Press Release. (Balanced view, no rate change)

January 29, 2003

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4 percent.

Oil price premiums and other aspects of geopolitical risks have reportedly fostered continued restraint on spending and hiring by businesses. However, the Committee believes that as those risks lift, as most analysts expect, the accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with ongoing growth in productivity, will provide support to an improving economic climate over time.

In these circumstances, the Committee believes that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals for the foreseeable future.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke, Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson, and Robert T. Parry.

Socrates964

(01/29/2003; 13:37:11 MDT - Msg ID: 96173)

Two $s

This idea of issuing toilet paper to locals and a gold-backed dollar to foreigners seems like wishful thinking to me - more appropriate for a 3rd world economy eager to please the IMF than Uncle Sam, which has always made it painfully obvious that it couldn't care less about foreign opinion. (although there are examples of such systems - e.g. China's FEC, which circulated until the mid-90s)

Presumably the internal peso will still be subject to the abuses of a fiat money system, so that over time a large black market spread will develop between the 2 currencies.

The Chinese FEC/Renmibi dichotomy worked (and only for a time) because it was backed by a government prepared to impose draconian restrictions on access by the local population to imports. Fine for a peasant economy (as it was in the 1980s) but not for an advanced consumer economy, most of whose manufacturing base has emigrated.

If I may throw in my 2 cents - what is being questioned is the right of the US to 100% of the seignorage pie. It is wrong to assume that its share is either 100% or nothing, since partial solutions are possible.

For example, an SDR-style solution of the kind contemplated at the 1968 Rio summit, where an international currency is introduced that is a basket of existing currencies - with clear rules for adjusting relative weightings over time.

Despite what some posters have written, I doubt that any European politician really wants all-out economic war with the US. It would be much more comfortable to shift to a basket approach which offered scope for modification over time. This also provides scope for much more asset backing than would be the case for any one of the existing major currencies. It also makes it easier to cut a deal with the Russians, Chinese and Islamic World, since their own currencies could be allowed a small weighting in the basket that would be more attractive than simply shifting to Euros.

GoldnSilver2002

(01/29/2003; 13:38:27 MDT - Msg ID: 96174)

The lower the price the more we can buy!

It just occured to me why the price manipulation is doomed.The lower they hold the price now, the faster the rest of the world will buy the physical.The gold price manipulation is now openly spoken about in the canadian media as well.Gold is a currency,like any other.All currencies are manipulated/managed.But you cant print gold...doh!The lower they hammer gold the more physical will be bought.Once the physical runs out,the paper gold scam will be discovered and the house of cards will come scrambling down.Thank you cabal for proving GATA right,your manipulation is so obvious my 11 year old son can now spot it!Right now the weak hands let go and the institutions move in snapping up the bargains.This game is doomed,one unforeseen event and the shorts file for bankrupcy,there will be a giant uproar and then blood in the streets from investors who have had enough of wall st.Having watched this game for a while now,i hereby vow to never ever ,ever buy dow or nasdaq again,and im not alone.You have been judged mr cartel,mr fed and mr wall st.I will never gamble in your casino.Off to buy more cheap gold!

Waverider

(01/29/2003; 13:39:07 MDT - Msg ID: 96175)

VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlHot off the press...

Daniel Druff

(01/29/2003; 14:26:42 MDT - Msg ID: 96176)

Contest Participation

Thank you Gandalf the White
Dear Sir White:

You must be pooped...who could have guessed the number of participants? Great job!

The Traveler: Sir, how do you reconcile, "With $5 trillion to $8 trillion in old US$ and USG debt held by foreigners needing to be made whole..." with, "Economically, America and its consumers will be debt free (hyper-inflated away) and the trade balance will be cured (devalued away).

While noting Socrates964's, "Fine for a peasant economy..." as to the "Bifurcated" system - I think that'a what it is, no? - could the system be refined for a "free society" or should we just take a step backwards toward barter and start all over? e.g., Price goods and services in terms of gold weight and use the Fiat System, in some manner, for the credit side? Or is it impossible?

Thank you Gentlemen

Belgian

(01/29/2003; 14:32:10 MDT - Msg ID: 96177)

@ Traveler

Thanks for responding, elaborately.

Your theory is builded on "exchange-control" of the new,to be created, International dollar. Only One result : MASSIVE CAPITAL FLIGHTS !

Exchange controls have been applicated (still are) in so many places. This means voluntary isolationalism. An empoverishment of any open economy. Impossible to applicate for the US of A.

Let me put the $-� struggle (for eventual balance) in another perspective : China/India (and a few other) are going to decide on the eventual changes in the future trade-flows . A very important and determinating factor for $/� relations as well.
It is perhaps the East/Far East who is holding the future of these $-� balances ?

A new (renewed) Gold-dollar, seems, intuitively, remote to me. The US will certainly try to consolidate its old position(s). Yes, we watch the coming monetary confrontation, all together, comfortably on the fine *CPM* forum-screen. Thanks, Traveler.

Belgian

(01/29/2003; 14:42:20 MDT - Msg ID: 96178)

@ Socrates964

The euro is already a basket-currency. The euro-basket only accepts compliers of the concept...anything but the dollar, that is. How do you mix earth (euro) with fire (dollar-debt) ?

cyberbat

(01/29/2003; 14:48:22 MDT - Msg ID: 96179)

@GoldnSilver

Amen on your last post. For some strange reason though, my old broker keeps sending me stuff in the mail. It won't wash with me either. I'll never buy another stock off either one of the exchanges the rest of my born days!!

CoBra(too)

(01/29/2003; 14:57:56 MDT - Msg ID: 96180)

Negative Interest Rates in Japan!

The BOJ has pumped too much Yen into the (banking) system, which doesn't mean the banks are less prone to bankruptcies. Probably more so as they can't find any takers for their main wares, which is money, or rather lending same for interest.

It is telling that the (Fiat) Yen finds no takers and banks have to give it away and even pay to get rid of it. Talking about the currency of the second largest economy globally - it comes to mind that the largest economy hasn't too many basis points left to squander, either.
cb2

PS: Gandy - Missed it, though checked your morning wrap up and it either wasn't in yet, or I missed. Anyway, decided to be bold and thought to put in a higher price anyway.
Thanks for all your good work.

No wonder the japanese saver was acquiring Gold at an ever faster rate over the last couple of years.

balzac

(01/29/2003; 15:00:57 MDT - Msg ID: 96181)

THE NEW US CURRENCY BY TRAVELLER

TRAVELLER@96168Dear Traveller,
Thankyou, a refreshing post, one which in the midst of all this doom gives a little hope.

Thanks from the friends of America, namely Canada.

Balzac

Boxman

(01/29/2003; 15:02:47 MDT - Msg ID: 96182)

AOL loses $44.9B

http://money.cnn.com/2003/01/29/technology/aol/index.htmSnip:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - AOL Time Warner reported a $44.9 billion fourth-quarter loss Wednesday due to its second major charge of the year for the falling value of its America Online unit, although excluding one-time items the company's earnings beat Wall Street expectations."

Thank goodness for the one-time items, or they could have actually lost money (tongue in cheek).

Magister Aurelius

(01/29/2003; 15:14:35 MDT - Msg ID: 96183)

Re: AOL - take another look

FoxNews' website is reporting the loss as $45.5 billion for the fourth QUARTER... the total loss for 2002 is totalled at $100 billion or more than the entire GDP of Egypt for 2001 according to FoxNews. Ted Turner also resigned from the board.

The rats are leaving the ship. Get the gold before they get it all!

Clink!

(01/29/2003; 15:21:46 MDT - Msg ID: 96184)

Interesting article including comment on GWB speech

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/harris/harris012903.htmlSnip :-

Anyway, I seized on one statement like a laser beam, and I did an "uh oh" just like I did when he said "axis of evil" last time. Anyway, after the speech was over I realized I was right, because it was the top headline on Drudge.

'THE COURSE OF THIS NATION DOES NOT DEPEND ON THE DECISIONS OF OTHERS' The foreign leaders are going to barf all over that one. He might as well have looked into the camera and said "world... this finger's for you." The whole second half of the speech had a very Romanesque tone to it... I could picture him wearing a robe and the audience waving swords and wearing armor. The idea that the US should dictate to the world what to do and how to do it was a basic underlying assumption which no one in the room doubted or would ever challenge. Meanwhile, at the coffeemakers and watercoolers around the world today, I'm sure the discussion will go something like "can you believe the pompous audacity of those bastards?"

Clink! :- More sparks in the powder keg ? Can't wait for Sec Powell's (NOT Chris or Rich !) disclosure Feb 5th. The talk around OUR watercooler today was more to do with the first half of the speech, along the lines of 'where the heck is all that money coming from ?'

sector

(01/29/2003; 15:22:31 MDT - Msg ID: 96185)

@ GoldNSilver Hammering gold shares while the metal does well...

...isn't what the cartel wants.This tactic may suffice as a hedge for hedge funds who buy the metal but the Fed sure doesn't want folks buying physical as they have been with both hands.

They can't tolerate the metallic drain. They would much rather have the shares high going into the war THEN hammer them with a flood of paper to try and dispel the idea that gold goes up during a war.

If the cartel had the gold to do this, they would never have allowed the price to be where it is today and the certainly would have avoided what is shaping up to be a very big short squeeze once the shooting starts and the war inevitably runs past a two week walk in the park. The permutations of bad things goes wild the longer it lasts.

Many are first timers to purchasing the metal and are VERY HAPPY they bought a few months ago. Now that the shares are at support levels, they too represent great buys because of the thin volume of gold shares. There may be no more shares left to short as the metal runs up and the hedge funds finally stop writing their covered calls and just go long gold. The market will see those hedge funds covering AND the general population on bargain hunters jump on gold AND gold shares. This is a rocket prepared for launch.

Another Mineweb Tomato

They trotted out another "expert" who asserted the gold shares are down only due to South African currency relative strength. Right! How about the hammered shares of producers in countries whose currencies are DOWN vs. the $USD? Argentina, or the rest of US for that matter. ALL the shares of principal unhedged miners are down even though the respective currencies are varied in performance. Mineweb blows it again...like clockwork, they are gold negative.

Sinclair is correct that an abnormal short of the gold shares in on now and represents a marvelous buying opportunity ahead of what is looking like a war. Lehman says gold goes down in the war. Right! Next Lehman will tell us that oil will go down too as the Venz and Iraqi oil gets all but cut off. Obviously, Lehman wants your gold shares on the cheap.

Frank TWB

(01/29/2003; 15:48:11 MDT - Msg ID: 96186)

****371.4****

Sorry. Let's try 371.4 for a guess.

Hipplebeck

(01/29/2003; 15:49:07 MDT - Msg ID: 96187)

two-tier currency

Why bother?
There is no need to have sound money when you have a gun pointed at your trade customers.
The land of the free is about to make the whole world over in it's own image whether they like it or not.
If the rest of the world doesn't stand up for itself, it's going to get it's euro shoved up it's ***
Who will be able to stand up to the US when it controls 80% of the worlds oil?

misetich

(01/29/2003; 16:04:43 MDT - Msg ID: 96188)

Morgan Stanley - S. Roach - This TIME things are different - a test of US resilience

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030128-tue.html#anchor0Snip:

With the world economy flying on only one engine, there was considerable hope in Davos that another US recovery would save the day. While I certainly didn't endorse that case, most US experts did -- from Commerce Secretary Donald Evans on down. Evans� case was based on what he called fundamentals -- the time-tested ability of the US economy to weather successfully 70 years of difficulties, ranging from war and terrorism to depression and recession. I countered that there's a big difference between inherent resilience and fundamentals. And in that latter regard, I continued to press the points on America's historical lows in national saving, a record current-account deficit, and record levels of private sector indebtedness.
*********
Misetich

Most comfort from the lack of alternative to the US consuming engine - where a small portion of global's population is consuming the vast amount of resources - with tons of wastage to feed the hungry poor worlwide -

So what? What matters if Japan's economy is worse off and that Europe's economy is slowing. Some may take heart in that regard - failing to see the perils of the bigger they are the harder they fall

US stock deflating bubble has quite a way to go yet as stock prices are way out over inflated - The band-aid solution of lower taxation, higher government spending, lower interest rates have ACCOMPLISHED NOTHING!

The patient (US economy and stock markets) are not responding to this artificial stimuli - Tremendous damage has been inflicted on the part of manipulators, con artists, and fraudlent govenrment officials, including Treasury and Central Bankers worlwide. Their POWER HUNGRY EGOS have brought the world economies being where they are today - and the worse is still to come - Has anybody forgotten TELECOM DEBT? is it gone?
Mortgage refinancing band-aids has INCREASED the risks not lowered them

They may try to divert attention from the state of the deteriorating economy through war - but the harsh reality remains - The deflating bubble has a long way to go just as the Housing Bubble will sooner or later will bust

Got gold?

Daniel Druff

(01/29/2003; 16:15:25 MDT - Msg ID: 96189)

Mr. James Sinclair

Taking Delivery of Your Gold Mining Shares
It's always a pleasure as well as a rewarding experience to read anything from the fiery man. Today's instruction was dead-nuts and right-on-the-money, imo.

However, wouldn't his strategy be especially powerful if the Gold Mutual Fund Group implimented this plan as well the small investor? Or perhaps they're levered-up and can't move.

David Tice and John Hathaway might get the ball rolling, if they can. Perhaps charter rules and so forth can restrict this type of activity.

Thank you

misetich

(01/29/2003; 16:23:52 MDT - Msg ID: 96190)

China set to build strategic oil reserve

http://www.iht.com/articles/84855.htmlSnip:

Stockpile of 20 million tons would equal 4 months of net imports�
BEIJING China will build a 20 million ton strategic oil reserve to protect itself from a war in Iraq and other conflicts that could disrupt supply from the Middle East, a government official said Tuesday.
China will stockpile about 149 million barrels, enough to meet oil demand for one month, said Song Chaoyi, a deputy director at the State Development Planning Commission. The reserve would be worth almost $5 billion at current prices.
*******
Misetich

China *the wildcard* - exporting deflation and investing in commodities - Oil and reportedly gold!

How high will oil prices rise in coming months? $50-60 - 80 dollars?

How high will gold prices rise in coming months? $500 - 700 - 1000?

Is there a risk of terrorists acts during the US proposed invasion of Iraq in the Western world or western world interests worlwide?

Is the US $ the safe haven of a few years ago? Can the US and world economies withstand this ongoing turmoil?

Many think the "war" will be over before you know it - as the Iraquis will succumb to the show of bomb power that will be displayed for all to see - counting on the Iraquis army to fear the worst and turn on Saddam and oust him - What if this gambit will not work?

Will foreign investors *TRUST* America's motives, post-war as "they manage Irquis Oil fields - in trust-

How will OPEC react to the prospect of US turning the taps on full blast (provided they can ) and send oil prices spiralling down?

How will Russia react - as Iraq owes them billions of dollars in past debts and have current contracts for billions of $

How will France react?

Will these two giants take steps and secure and preserve their national interests?

How will the Saudis react?

What is the best investment in this scenario?

GOLD! PHYSICAL GOLD!

Get some!

R Powell

(01/29/2003; 16:52:58 MDT - Msg ID: 96191)

Stock shorting

In the commodity markets the total number of contracts sold is called the open interest. This is always equal to the total number bought. Most bull markets require more buying pressure than selling which increases the open interest number. Ownership of a contract is not required for selling.

Okay, now how does this work with stocks? I believe buying requires finding a willing seller to buy from or a short seller. The short seller here must "borrow" the stocks from a broker who is borrowing from someone who owns those shares.

Let's say there are X number of total outstanding shares of the Mining Co. When buyers appear willing to buy and do buy from short sellers, is it not possible that there can be more shares owned than exist? If half of all the X number of shares are sold short, then the total number owned becomes X plus one-half X.

If Sinclair is right in explaining the underperformance of mining company stocks as compared to the metal price as the result of short selling, and I'm correct in thinking that the total number of shares or "open interest" in mining shares is increasing due to short selling, then there are more buyers entering mining shares ownership.

With the commodities markets, there are essentially no limits to short selling. I don't know if this is true of equities, that is, can the same stock be shorted more than once? This will eventually build upward price pressure in the stocks just like it has with the POG but might explain the temporary disappointment of stock holders.
Any thoughts??
Rich

ElGordo

(01/29/2003; 16:56:36 MDT - Msg ID: 96192)

AOL 2002 loss $100 Billion

NEW YORK (Reuters) - AOL Time Warner Inc., the world's largest media company, on Wednesday posted a 2002 loss of nearly $100 billion, the largest annual loss in U.S. corporate history, after taking a whopping $45.5 billion charge in the fourth quarter to write down the value of assets.

The company, which also said media mogul Ted Turner would step down as vice chairman, reported a fourth quarter net loss of $44.9 billion, or $10.04 a share, after taking the non-cash charge to write down the value of its embattled America Online business and other assets. That compared to a year-ago loss of $1.8 billion, or 41 cents a share.

ElGordo

(01/29/2003; 17:06:29 MDT - Msg ID: 96193)

Gloves come off

TORONTO, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp ABX.TO , the world's No. 2 gold producer, launched libel proceedings in Canada on Wednesday, seeking "substantial damages" against U.S. bullion dealer Blanchard & Co Inc. for published remarks that Barrick says harmed its reputation and business interests.

Toronto-based Barrick said it served a libel notice on Blanchard, which bills itself as America's biggest physical gold dealer, and its chief executive, Donald Doyle Jr., on Wednesday for a series of statements published since mid-December.

Blanchard spokesman Neal Ryan said the company had received the notice but had not had the chance to review the documents.

Barrick's decision to go after Blanchard for defamation follows an anti-trust lawsuit filed by New Orleans-based Blanchard that alleges Barrick and investment banker J.P Morgan Chase made $2 billion in short-selling profits by suppressing the gold price at the expense of investors.

Barrick has dismissed the allegations in the lawsuit as ludicrous and without merit.

"Blanchard has made statements that have no basis in fact and are totally irresponsible and defamatory," Randall Oliphant, Barrick president and chief executive, said in a statement.

"We value our good name, and we are simply not prepared to tolerate the dissemination of false statements concerning Barrick that are harmful to our reputation, business interests and stakeholders -- by Blanchard, Doyle or others."

Barrick said the notice of libel was the first step in legal proceedings for defamation in Canada.
____________
Maybe we will find out what the facts are now.

Guided

(01/29/2003; 17:14:42 MDT - Msg ID: 96194)

Gandalf .......looks like you were right on.......Joe6pak is onto gold now

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P39949.asp?special=msnExcerpt:

Critics of gold like to say that the metal has become just another commodity. If that's so, then where's the Fort Knox of pork bellies and orange juice?

End excerpt

This comes from a front page article on MSN Money entitled "The gold rush of 2003".

There is no question. Joe6pak is onto gold now.

miner49er

(01/29/2003; 18:18:30 MDT - Msg ID: 96195)

Daniel Druff @ 96189 - Taking Delivery of Shares

Hi Daniel -

I assume the discussion here (not having seen Sinclair's commentary) has to do with taking delivery of one's mining shares in order to reduce the available shares in street name that can be lent for short selling. As such, you are correct to see that it would have to be something done at the institutional level, as coordination among individual investors to that end would have absolutely no success whatsoever.

The problem though with trying to get the gold mutual funds to step up and take delivery of shares (aside from any regulatory issues) is two-fold:

1) They eliminate their flexibility. They would have to physically deliver shares back and forth as they deal them (plus expenses for doing this), and they cannot hamper themselves with that kind of excess weight.

2) Unless the fund is riveted in an ideological motivation about being long in gold (and including all the gold substitutes here as "gold"), to the exclusion of any short type trading, then you must understand that these funds do indeed short these gold related instruments, too.

Say you buy into a gold fund (which of course is just an investment company into which you place your money, trusting that they can do a better job with it than you can). They (and you) ultimately have one goal, and one goal only: increase the NAV.

People only mentally apply an equivalency between the gold fund and upward movement in gold because it seems so apparent. After all if the fund is called something like "High Yield Gold Growth Fund" it appears obvious on the surface that they are long on gold. The fund's prospectus probably word things in such a way as to indicate that they typically are long-biased in their holdings. BUT they always have the statements about the right to go short from time-to-time. Because... they are in the business of increasing their NAV, not making a statement about their opinions of the price of gold. If their investment savvy tells them to short or sell, even when investors might personally think otherwise, they will do as they see fit. That's why the investors gave them their money to begin with, after all.

Hope this helps...

miner

Buena Fe

(01/29/2003; 18:23:05 MDT - Msg ID: 96196)

Hipplebeck (01/29/03; 15:49:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 96187)

ha ha ha ha .........

that was a hoot (but also sad because it is so true)

...... then again Pharoah went after Moses ... and the rest is history.

?is there going to be some cosmic intervention ahead to save the world from this women?

got gold

Cavan Man

(01/29/2003; 18:23:38 MDT - Msg ID: 96197)

http://www.drudgereport.comUS Studying International Law To Determine Oil Field Rights In Event Of War With Iraq
Wed Jan 29 2003 10:10:54 ET

If U.S. forces find themselves in control of Iraq, international law would give them a large degree of leeway in managing the country's oil fields, the WALL STREET JOURNAL reported on Wednesday. MORE

Some analysts expect Washington -- eager to avoid accusations of going to war for oil - - to refrain from making big decisions about the industry in the early days of any Iraqi occupation.

But international treaties concerning military occupation and precedents dating to the early 1800s give the administration ammunition to press for a more aggressive role in Iraq's oil patch.

For now, military planners are focused on how best to secure oil infrastructure and protect it from possible sabotage by Saddam Hussein, officials say. But Pentagon and State Department attorneys also are debating how to interpret various treaties and precedents for a number of scenarios that may unfold in Iraq.

ElGordo

(01/29/2003; 19:12:12 MDT - Msg ID: 96198)

Tony Blair : N Korea is next

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/foreignaffairs/story/0,11538,884753,00.htmlTony Blair today pledged that after dealing with Iraq, the UN would confront North Korea about its nuclear weapons programme.

The prime minister was giving an impassioned defence of the government's position on Iraq during his weekly question time when an anti-war MP shouted: "Who's next?"

Replying to the heckle, Mr Blair said: "After we deal with Iraq we do, yes, through the UN, have to confront North Korea about its weapons programme".

"We have to confront those companies and individuals trading in weapons of mass destruction," he added.

To another cry of "When do we stop?", Mr Blair answered: "We stop when the threat to our security is properly and fully dealt with."
____________
World tensions will remain high for quite some time. Iraq is
not the only country the US and UK plan to "deal" with.

mikal

(01/29/2003; 19:22:17 MDT - Msg ID: 96199)

Oil supplies, economy down the crapper?

http://www.yt.org/article.php?sid=1018PINR: "Invasion of Iraq may collapse global economy"
Printed on Wednesday, January 22, 2003 @ 23:00:11 EST Power and Interest News Report (PINR) -Excerpt:
"In the next few weeks, the struggling global economy may be put to the test if Washington chooses to invade Iraq. There are many risks involved in bombing Baghdad, the most important being a spike in oil prices. With oil prices already over $30.00 a barrel, increased pressure has been put on the global economy as more money is spent on importing oil. Should the United States attack Iraq, there is a real possibility that Middle East oil shipments will be disrupted. U.S. oil inventories are already running low due to the nearly two-month long PDVSA oil strike in Venezuela. While it takes only one week for Venezuelan oil exports to reach the United States, it takes four to five weeks for them to arrive from the Middle East.
During an American attack on Iraq, an errant bomb could destroy or interfere with oil operations, halting Iraq's 1-2 million barrels per day (bpd) in exports. Compounding the American threat, Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein could opt to damage his own oilfields, by ordering troops to light them on fire, as was done to Kuwait in 1991.
In order to prevent a spike in oil prices, any reduction in Iraqi oil exports will need to be compensated by an increase in oil exports from OPEC nations and non-OPEC nations alike. However, most OPEC nations are already producing at capacity, such as Indonesia and Qatar; the biggest oil producers outside of OPEC -- Russia, Norway and Mexico -- cannot increase their output since their pumps are already running at full capacity.
This likely scenario has worried economists; it could result in oil prices as high as $40.00 a barrel, possibly causing extensive damage to the global economy. However, the Bush administration believes that the end result of the invasion will be economic growth rather than economic recession. The fate of the economy will rest on how fast the United States can get oil flowing again after the war; once oil production has stabilized again, the United States will likely be able to increase capacity by updating Iraq's oil infrastructure. While before the Gulf War Iraq was exporting 3.5 million barrels per day, it is predicted that Iraq may be able to increase production up to 5 million bpd with U.S. assistance. Larry Lindsey, former top economic adviser to President Bush, supported this prediction in a statement last fall: "When there is regime change in Iraq, you could add three million to five million barrels [per day] of production to world supply. The successful prosecution of the war would be good for the economy." Indeed, this scenario would provide a boon to the global economy by increasing oil supply, dropping prices down to $15 to $20 a barrel.
But successful "regime change" might not be as easy as it seems. Iraq's oil infrastructure is already in bad shape and the prediction is that it will take 5 to 10 years for Iraqi oil output to reach such levels, if at all; in addition, there is no guarantee that the new Iraqi government will be willing to export such an inflated amount of oil. However, any new administration will most likely be installed and protected by U.S. troops, thus reducing the government's actual independence from Washington.
The other most dangerous scenario is whether an invasion by Washington will heighten tensions in the Middle East in such a way that militant groups will attack oil interests when the U.S. and global economy are most vulnerable. Indeed, if militants inside Saudi Arabia attempted to sabotage major oil facilities within the country, limiting exports, oil prices would skyrocket since other nations would not be able to supplement the amount of oil Saudi Arabia exports.
This would possibly send oil prices to over $50 a barrel, or cause prices to become static at $40.00 a barrel for many months. Indeed, Gary Hufbauer, of the Institute for International Economics, stated in the Baltimore Sun last October that a sustained rise in oil prices at a level of $45 or $50 a barrel could "turn [the economies of] the United States and Japan into a recession."
Should the two largest global economies -- the United States and Japan -- enter a recession, or even suffer further economic setback due to increased oil prices, it would greatly add to the misery of other suffering states and impact emerging market economies.
South American states, for instance, have had difficulty accessing global capital markets due to the economic uncertainty in Brazil -- which has been flirting with economic disaster -- and the recent economic meltdown of Argentina. Paraguay and Uruguay too have been hit by their neighbors' economic troubles, with the former suffering from low tax revenues and a stagnant economy. If the global economy were to deteriorate, it could create a scenario where Argentina would have to default on its debts to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). If Argentina were to default, and other countries soon followed, it would compromise the Fund's own financial position and economic assistance to needy economies would falter, further spiraling the world economy toward a grave future.
Along with South America, Asia will also be pushed into economic disaster should oil prices spike for a prolonged period...." End snipitt
Erich Marquardt drafted this report.
Source: http://www.pinr.com

canamami

(01/29/2003; 19:35:23 MDT - Msg ID: 96200)

PPT timed its counterattack....

...for the Lunar New Year, when Chinese grassroots demand was less of a factor. I'm not too concered about the recent intervention of the Chinese CB to lower the gold price on the Shanghai Exchange. There was a temporary market distortion caused by the gap between the end of gold imports by the CB and the start of gold imports by private banks, as I understand it. The intervention was probably to remedy that temporary, government-caused distortion.

GoldnSilver2002

(01/29/2003; 19:50:04 MDT - Msg ID: 96201)

Whats good for the goose....

The best counter attack is to talk you friends and family into selling out of the fixed casino known as the down jones and nasdog.Even if people dont react now they will when gold rips through 400.I've started with my brother talking him into selling some of his tech and buying gold.I now tell everyone i can that the u.s markets are rigged and that they should get out.People are ready to believe now,3 years of losing,war on the horizon and company after company getting caught for fraud etc.As i have said to many "how many have gone to jail?","hey ya!" they reply.I tell them all through hisory it has been wise to keep 10 to 20 percent in gold.I also tell them the bottom for the dow and nasdog is zero,but gold will never go to zero.Nice piece on business report(canadian TV) today.They had a gold analyst openly talking about the gold manipulation and he said "gold is going to 800!"

Ok now im off to talk to all my friends about gold and which stocks to get out of.Ill be specifically telling them to get out of JPM and citibank and i will not stop ever.Right back at ya Mr fed.Cant wait to hear about all the asasinations on wall st.

mikal

(01/29/2003; 20:09:03 MDT - Msg ID: 96202)

"Oil? Oh yeah, that dark, smelly, gooey stuff."

http://www.washtimes.com/world20030129-75579538.htmJanuary 29, 2003
Saddam eyes oil field nightmare
By David Rennie
LONDON DAILY TELEGRAPH
��HOUSTON � America is planning for the prospect that Saddam Hussein will use his vast oil reserves as a doomsday weapon, blowing up wells or diverting their flows into the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.�Such a move could trigger one of the worst environmental disasters in history.
��Over the past month, oil executives said, the Pentagon has asked every one of the world's major oil well firefighting companies for advice and contingency plans.
��In the close-knit world of well control, dominated by barrel-chested Texans in the mold of Paul N. "Red" Adair, the talk is of a disaster that would dwarf the fires set by Saddam's armies as they retreated from Kuwait in 1991.
��The world had four months to prepare for the 1991 disaster, as intelligence reported Iraqis were wiring Kuwait's wells with explosives.
��Now, Saddam appears to be contemplating the same tactics but on his own territory.
��One senior American military official said: "There are indications through reliable intelligence sources that those activities have been planned and that, in some cases, they may have begun."
��[Sean Rayment of the London Telegraph reports that British troops will be responsible for securing and protecting Iraq's 1,500 oilfields in the event of war.
��[The 26,000 soldiers from the 7th Armored and 16 Air Assault brigades will begin training for the operation when they arrive in Kuwait in mid-February. The mission is the first real indication by the Pentagon that British forces will play a vital part in the attempt to remove Saddam from power.
��[The plan to rescue the wells is understood to involve using the Special Air Services (SAS) and troops from 16 Air Assault Brigade, who can deploy either from helicopters or by parachuting from aircraft, in a "seize and protect" operation, with tanks from the 7th Armored Brigade providing a defensive ring.
��[The SAS will be the spearhead force, securing and neutralizing the well heads in a series of covert raids, with the help of paratroopers, who will provide them with protection. Troops will form a defensive barrier to repel any Iraqi counterattack until the arrival of tanks and armored infantry, who will link up with them within 48 hours.]
��It took nine months to put out the 690 Kuwaiti oil wells left ablaze in an effort involving almost every piece of specialist equipment in North America.
��Firefighters were greatly helped by Kuwait's small size, flat terrain and easy availability of water after an oil pipeline was reversed to carry water from the Persian Gulf.
��By contrast, many Iraqi oil wells are far from the sea, scattered in remote mountain areas. Many have stronger flow rates than Kuwaiti wells, making for larger fires.
��Worldwide, there are fewer than 100 well-head firemen � the elite who can work in the 150-foot-wide "Red Zone" around a burning well � with Kuwaiti experience. Some have retired and many are now in their 50s.
��Jeff Miller, marketing director of Cudd Pressure Control, the world's largest well-fire company, said the government contacted his firm and their two largest rivals, Wild Well Control, and Boots & Coots, a month ago.
��"They asked how many people and how much equipment do you have?" he said. "Our rapid-response team can be wheeled into a cargo plane."
��Safety Boss, a Canadian well-control firm, was recently contacted by American military emergency ordnance and demolition experts, asking detailed questions about how Iraqi troops blew up wells in Kuwait.
��Mike Miller, the chief executive of Safety Boss, said: "We sent them a photograph of a Kuwaiti well wired to explode that failed to detonate. They used plastic explosives, wrapped with sandbags. We've been trading e-mails on how the Iraqis could do it worse than in Kuwait."
��Les Skinner, a senior well-control engineer at Cudd, has no doubt that Saddam knows how.
��"One of the things we noticed in Kuwait was that every well was blown out in the worst possible way to maximise the damage.
��"Each one was different, depending on the well type. It had to have been done by petroleum engineers, not just soldiers."
��This time, there may be a time lag before firemen can mobilize. "There's going to be security issues," said Mr. Skinner. Concerns include mine fields, unexploded ordnance, lingering Iraqi resistance and chemical and biological weapons.
��"Luckily, biological agents don't survive long near heat," said Mr Skinner. "But we need an assurance that the area is secure. If we're under a plume of oil, drenched in it, we have to be sure someone is not able to fire a flare into the plume and cook a bunch of firefighters."
��Each day that firemen have to wait will cost the environment dear. According to Mike Miller, at Safety Boss: "You can only compare the Kuwait fires with the largest volcanic eruptions centuries back."
��At Cudd's Houston offices, there was agreement. "It was like midnight in Kuwait," said Mike Audirsch, Cudd's international managing director.
��"There was a curtain of soot and hydrocarbons. A lot of the oil didn't burn but rained back down as a fine mist."
��Mr. Skinner recalled: "Smoke from Kuwait ended up over India and Pakistan. With Iraq's much larger oil fields, the smoke could end over Burma and Russia.
��"In Kuwait after five or six months of fires, they'd lost 3 percent of their total reserves. Three percent of Iraq's reserves is a beyond-comprehension number."
��These gruff men talk of fighting fires without emotion, even calling it "easy." But there is one scenario that terrifies them. "If Saddam doesn't blow the wells but just lets them flow into the rivers or marshes, that's a nightmare," said Mr Audirsch.
��Saddam has done it before. In Kuwait, he had 10 million gallons of crude poured into the Persian Gulf to prevent marine landings, planning to set it alight as a curtain of fire.
��Mr. Skinner looked grim. "The Tigris and Euphrates hold a large part of the fresh water for the Middle East.
��"If he drains oil into them, we can't use that water for firefighting. If there are ground fires, we may not be able to get to the wells." Then there are long-term effects.
��"You would lose groundwater, farmland, marshes, livestock and wildlife. If the oil reached the Persian Gulf ..." He paused. "Nothing has ever happened like that before."
��The Texans hope Iraqi troops would disobey orders to let the wells flow. "You'd see mass unemployment, starvation and illness.
��"It reminds me very much of the Book of Revelation," said Mr. Skinner.

sector

(01/29/2003; 20:11:58 MDT - Msg ID: 96203)

@ Sir Rich Powell -- We speak again of "No limits to short selling"

Here is the exact place in the landscape where the misunderstandfing occursThere are limits to short selling an equity.

That limit is the number of extant shares of the stock in question -- the total number of shares issued [Which is known to the regulators]. One must borrow the shares from an owner in order to sell them short. If the total number of issued shares has already been borrowed and sold short, then [In a fairly regulated market] further shorting of that equity cannot happen because there are no more shares to borrow therefore there are no more shares to sell short.

In commodities we have exactly the same condition. There are limits to shorting [In a regulated and non-corrupt market]. One cannot borrow more silver than there is. Today this is the condition [As Ted Butler has trumpeted] but it cannot be proved as the audit of world silver available for borrowing is unclear, thus, the shorting limit on silver is not enforced because the regulators can assert with impugnity that there is more silver...somewhere.

For gold the limit to shorting is the tonnage available for loan or swap or forward sale. This number is known to greater precision than silver since the bullion [Which is much smaller in volume] to be borrowed is in vaults and at specified mines. When the gold is consumed by lending, swapping or loaning, it is no longer available for purposes of shorting since the gold has changed ownership and been sold [Dispersed to many owners] into the markets.

The are limits to short selling and the gold shares are near that limit today.

We have a ways to go for gold bullion. 16,000 more tonnes remain to be swapped or loaned or sold forward in the Western central banks vaults. The good news is that any attempt to reverse the current gold bull market will seriously drain the remaining central bank vaults as they have no justifiable cover, no plausible excuse to loan, swap or sell their remaining metal. If they DID sell all their remaining metal, there would be nothing left to support the Western currencies in comparison to gold other than balance of trade economics which for the US is headed towards and abyss. Under a condition of no remaining gold to loan, the Western currencies would be grouped with those of the banana republics.

This is the "Abyss" That Sir Eddie George spoke of during the Washington Agreement price rise�the Western central banks as banana republic currency peddlers.

silvercollector

(01/29/2003; 20:13:05 MDT - Msg ID: 96204)

365?

Let's go WHIMPS!! Gold is falling, where's the support?!?!

Let's put this away, once and for all.

TownCrier

(01/29/2003; 20:25:32 MDT - Msg ID: 96205)

Gold dynamics

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/html/uncomp/articleshow?artid=34270736This article from IndiaTimes is two weeks old, but still relevant regarding dynamics of the market.

HEADLINE: Marriage season seen lifting India's gold imports

JANUARY 13, 2003 MUMBAI: Gold imports by India, the world's largest consumer, are likely to start increasing from this week despite high prices...

"It's difficult to further postpone imports," said Narendra Singh Rathore, a gold trader based in Jaipur.

India imports an average of 14,000 bars a day, which is more than 70 percent of demand. The gap is met by local recycling of old jewellery and domestic output.

"High world prices are discouraging traders to buy gold from the banks which are designated to import the metal into India," said Suresh Hundia, president of the Bombay Bullion Association.

But imports were likely to pick up because supply of recycled gold, very high in recent weeks, was slowly drying up and demand was increasing, trade sources said.

"Traders prefer recycled gold due to its lower price than the fresh metal, but sustained supply of the old material is a problem," said H P Rajdev, a trader based in Gujarat.

-------(article at url)------

In the end, the END mind you, the price issue comes down to one of settling physical supply against the real demand. In the meanwhile, you can utilize to your acquisition-minded advantage the dynamic pricing dislocations in place from the prevailing episode of paper gold being used in its stead by much of the western world.

Just ask yourself this question: How long will confidence in the system of paper gold be maintained in the minds of the same people that are already of a mindset for selling out of their paper currency? The workout will be characterized by those who naturally want the security of gold paying the price determined by those who actually have the metal to sell.

An understanding of human nature tells us the supply of "recycled" gold will dry up quickly in any environment where prevailing expections are for higher prices and ever-depreciating currency.

Call Centennial soon to establish your position -- get while the getting is good.

R.

knotakare

(01/29/2003; 20:26:39 MDT - Msg ID: 96206)

Short Gold Share Shorts

I spoke to 2 people at Fidelity here in the US today, and they confirmed to me that they would not lend out my shares in my self directed IRA accounts.

I do use some derivatives in my regular accounts. In my regular accounts, I did put some GTC orders to sell some of my shares, 30% above today's prices, so that these shares could not be lent out.

Cyberbat, I respect the fact that you have as much experience as you do in the gold markets. I was just trying to stir the pot a little. Sorry about that. I still think Sinclair is probably right, althoug I have no direct proof. Since I hold my gold share positions for more than just trading, I don't get too concerned when they don't go up when I expect them to. I expect them to make a big move this year sometime. And I am selling some each quarter to buy gold.

Good luck.

silvercollector

(01/29/2003; 20:28:47 MDT - Msg ID: 96207)

miner49er

Your posts are always of the highest calibre and your latest to 'Daniel' is of course in the same league.

Let's cut to the chase, shall we. Is POG ahead of itself, for whatever reasons, or are the shares lagging, again for whatever reasons?

Thanks,

sc

silvercollector

(01/29/2003; 20:34:19 MDT - Msg ID: 96208)

sector

Your posts become more to the point each day.

From your latest, "The are limits to short selling and the gold shares are near that limit today."

I believe this implies that a 'wise' person should be long shares at this juncture, yes?

sc

Gandalf the White

(01/29/2003; 20:38:20 MDT - Msg ID: 96209)

HOLD your HEADS high Sir's Slingshot and Wky_Woodsman

You take good care of your duties and I, SPIKE and SPOT will take care of GOLD ! I have a CRYSTAL BALL you know !!
<;-)

mikal

(01/29/2003; 20:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 96210)

@Randy

Good depiction of a seller's market through your India example. The shape of things to come.

cyberbat

(01/29/2003; 21:06:22 MDT - Msg ID: 96211)

@knotacare

I don't blame you for your actions. Most of my paper is at Fidelity also. I am trapped with my paper because it is an IRA and I can't move it into physical gold, unless of course, I were a Canadian citizen. If anyone out there knows of a gold mutual fund that has at least a 30% stake in physicals for goodness sake, please let me know.

sector

(01/29/2003; 21:07:20 MDT - Msg ID: 96212)

@ silvercollector Should one be long gold shares?

It depends on which gold sharesI only choose debt-free, unhedged, producing ventures.

That's a very small list. But yes I would be long gold shares of those kinds of gold producers today and further...buy at noon EST as they shares have been weakest then.

You may fall a bit more before turn.

Moreover, betting on a rally in the sm and a fall in gold as the war starts as happened in 1991 is a bad bet since Mr. Market always seems to wreck the majority. It's buy and hold with great patience.

The bad guys are caught in a trap, but still alive and they can still bite.

R Powell

(01/29/2003; 21:39:09 MDT - Msg ID: 96213)

Sector // Stocks and commodities, apples and oranges

If, as you say, there are limits to the short selling of stocks, then, in theory, when all has been sold, new buyers will only be able to buy from existing owners. I wonder, though, if this will ever happen as buying stock creates new owned shares subject to shorting, even if that new ownership came from buying shorted (borrowed) shares.
From every short sale there arises a new long side owner so the supply of stock from which to borrow is being replenished with every short sale (which necessitates a buy). If, however, "borrowing" is necessary to supply a short sale then the idea of a limited amount is implied. If you are right about this with stocks, then new (more) buyers looking for mining shares will eventually drive prices higher. Shorting in any market with a limited supply seems highly risky.

I still don't agree that any shorting limits apply with commodities. There is no "borrowing" involved, it is done with a simple sell order. Think again of shorting the Dow, Nasdaq or S+P index. One does not borrow the number to sell, there is only one constantly changing number- ONE - yet thousands of buys and sells every day. What real value does the S+P number have? Yet it is sold and bought by the thousands daily and options are bought and sold for months into the future on this number.
It is the performance of the price, not the amount of the commodity, from which the bets derive their value. It is the quanitity of the commodity in relation to the amount of it that buyers want that should determine that price but it is only the price that determines the monetary value of futures contracts.
Futures contracts and physical delivery are so very seldom connected that the thought of one should, in no way, invoke the thought of the other. I believe there is now a futures market on the amount of bankruptcies, so that the insurance companies can hedge their coverage (supposedly). No one "borrows" a bankruptcy to short this market.

I do hope you're right on the stocks and someone is watching for the limit. I'd like to see some serious short covering here as that would fire up the POG and POS.
Rich

knotakare

(01/29/2003; 21:42:47 MDT - Msg ID: 96214)

@Cyberbat

Cyberbat, check out CEF; I looked at it once, it holds gold and silver bullion. I understand it sells at a premium to it's bullion holdings; not sure what that is. If it is a long term holding, probably not a big deal.

Black Blade

(01/29/2003; 21:48:13 MDT - Msg ID: 96215)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm
Snippit:

In The End We All Pay The Piper

It wouldn't have mattered who became President in 2001, whether it was Al Gore or George Bush. The 1990s credit bubble wasn't going away. In fact, the Fed's response by making credit cheaper and more available was actually making the problem worse. Instead of just a stock market bubble, we now have three additional bubbles in mortgages, housing, and consumption. Alan Greenspan's Fed is hell-bent on expanding money and credit. The money supply increased at an annual rate of 16% during Q4 of last year. The enormous debt expansion by consumers and corporations, states and municipalities wouldn't have gone away regardless of who won the elections. The problem in Washington is that it is hard for politicians to be honest with the people. They are elected to deliver more benefits to their constituents--not less benefits. Our problems as a country are no different from any household's problems. What do you tell your kids when they have run up their credit card debts? Do you encourage them to take on more debt and to continue to spend more? That is what most politicians in Washington are now telling most Americans. They are telling us there will be no hangover from the debt binge and credit orgy of the 90's. In fact, they are encouraging even more debt intoxication.

Black Blade: I would say that the biggest threat now is the "debt bubble". We are facing record levels of debt (consumer, corporate, and government) and there is no possible way that this debt will ever be paid off. In fact it just keeps growing. So in the end who is left standing without a chair when the music stops? Think the banks are going to swallow hard and take it on the chin? Not bloody likely! Puplava is right and I have said it before too � it did not matter one bit who won the national popularity contest in 2000. The result would have been the same regardless. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months� expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver for portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

Chris Powell

(01/29/2003; 21:48:18 MDT - Msg ID: 96216)

Barrick huffs and puffs some more about Blanchard lawsuit

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1404Blanchard may get a second chance to compel
Barrick and Morgan Chase to come clean about
gold.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Chris Powell

(01/29/2003; 21:49:23 MDT - Msg ID: 96217)

New Reg Howe commentary explains where gold is and where it may go

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1405Reg Howe summarizes the gold situation and
speculates brilliantly about where gold may be
taking the international economic order.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

goldenboy

(01/29/2003; 21:53:47 MDT - Msg ID: 96218)

Mikal: Thanks for the Oil Article

Very interesting and maybe the best reason to stay away from Iraq conflict. Uncontrollable fires creating as much ash across the globe as previous volcanic eruptions can create a "nuclear winter" phenomenen.
We did get a cold summer not so long ago following volcanic activity and tthen there was Krakatoa, sometime in the 1800s I believe, when it snowed in July and crop failure was widespread.
Then of course, the impact of removing oil from supply, and creating the worlds largest ever bonfire.
The irony is we help create the biggest ecological weapon of mass destruction ever seen for the sake of removing the threat (possibility only) of the use of WMD which may or may not exist, may or may not be used.

Black Blade

(01/29/2003; 22:00:04 MDT - Msg ID: 96219)

Trade deficit sets record

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2003-01-28-dollar_x.htm
Snippit:

The dollar has fallen, but, to the dismay of manufacturers, the trade deficit is still climbing. U.S. producers, who long complained the strong dollar was making their goods too expensive abroad, have gotten some relief. The dollar has fallen more than 20% against the euro in a year, with the drop accelerating this month. The dollar gained a bit against the European currency Tuesday, however, after Treasury secretary nominee John Snow told Congress "a strong dollar is in the national interest," ending uncertainty about White House policy. While there are reports that some U.S. products, such as farm goods and electronics, have become more competitive, the USA's monthly trade deficit jumped in November to a record $40.1 billion, the most recent monthly report.

Black Blade: The dollar has a long way to fall yet. It is still overvalued by at least 20%. Even a weaker dollar won't help exporters much though as foreign nations are as bad off or worse than the US. Mr. Snow notwithstanding, the market place will force the dollar lower and if the Fed follows through on their threat to fire up the printing presses that will only accelerate the dollar's decline. As all currencies are weakening it bodes well for precious metals going forward. It should continue to get very "interesting".

Black Blade

(01/29/2003; 22:11:09 MDT - Msg ID: 96220)

KPMG, 4 Partners Charged by SEC With Fraud Over Xerox Audits

Snippit:

Washington, Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission charged KPMG LLP and four KPMG partners with fraud in connection with audits of Xerox Corp. The SEC announced that it sued the third-largest accounting firm and the four partners in action filed in federal district court in New York.

Black Blade: When Enron and Arthur Andersen came under fire I had mentioned here a few times that KPMG would be next. There has been so much creative accounting that I would expect that other accounting firms will find them selves under investigation and facing several class action lawsuits from angry investors.

miner49er

(01/29/2003; 22:18:14 MDT - Msg ID: 96221)

silvercollector @ 96207

Greetings SC,

You probably know my general take on the whole thing, but I would buttress my answer to your question with restating the assessment that the very dynamics of the current gold market and its important relation to the US dollar, leaves an unmistakable tension between them that fosters an unrelenting downward pressure on gold. That said, then I might say gold is probably right on schedule. I.e., it is a free market that buys and sells it. But the nature of contract selling in combination with sophisticated arbitrage means that the price does not necessarily move freely, at least as freely is perceived to most people.

Since most people unwittingly perceive the activity of a market in terms of basic spot trade, they don't usually absorb the variables involved in the mechanics of intertemporal exchange or highly leveraged arbitrage, and hence are left confused, attributing the workings to what appears irrational behavior, or covert manipulation.

As you can see from my contest guess (378.80), I'm way off base. But for a contest, who cares? Sadly, there are bunches of people (many who read this forum), who have just taken a soaking today because of real bets they made on the price in futures. And this pattern has repeated itself all too often over the years. Just too many variables to consider.

The question probably should be, "Is gold still a good price?" -- Resoundingly, Yes. Buy some more. Regarding mining shares... probably funds see a good opportunity to sell right now, if they perceive a pull back in price. And many are likely short right now to take even more advantage of the situation. This is how they play. And remember that they are also often employing standard hedging strategies which necessarily involve formulaic adherence to prescribed long-short ratios.

Will the shares bounce again? As long as the paper markets are intact, the game will go on. And those who have a lust for the adrenaline rush, can possibly make a good show of it (if they're good). Most will get soaked however, because regardless of everyone's touted bravado, this ain't easy. Those who ride in the back seat of funds, will probably see middling gains for awhile still, and will be happy just to be positive again, after they're soaking in general equities and techs. Those who adhere to a strict buy-and-hold philosophy, conservative as that may be, risk severe disappointment. The suddeness with which things can happen will leave them little to no time to react, decide to sell, and then actually sell. While they might still come out with gains on paper, the crisis that brought them to this is most probably going to involve the inevitable breakaway of the price of physical metal. So even with the paper gain, there won't be an advantage to be had for most of these people to try and convert now to physical, as the price will be running away too quickly.

But, all this is highly contingent on the global trends regarding currency preferences. The trend is bullish for the euro, and bearish for the dollar. If a point of critical mass is passed (whether some political force pulls the lever, or some human behavior dynamic like I described in my contest post kicks it off is secondary), credibility in dollar stability as marked by gold will be tested again and again, and when the pressure is too great, something will discredit the paper arena, and all gold proxies will suffer. Contracts will go to 0, and shares will be imperiled by a house-of-horrors of sudden surprises.

(One anecdotal thing I'll note here, since it is an uncanny predictor to me of when gold is about to crash, is this. I keep getting this marketing schlock "gold advisory" from some company. Everytime they send me this email, telling me how great gold is doing, and how they bought this or that "hoard" of something "when the price was considerably lower" and are now passing the savings on to their "select clientele," it is sure as eggs a sign that gold is about to get flushed. I got an email from them again yesterday...)

Be heavily weighted in the physical holding. If you have it in your blood to play the paper, too, I wish you the very best...

Cheers,
miner

Daniel Druff

(01/29/2003; 22:21:07 MDT - Msg ID: 96222)

KNOTAKARE msg# 96206

"...so that these shares could not be lent out."
You are the man with the plan.

"In my regular accounts, I did put some GTC orders to sell some of my shares, 30% above today's prices so that these shares could not be lent out."

That really is good. Did you talk to someone at your brokerage house and get the word from a manager and could it also apply to stocks in a margin account? It sure is hard to believe that Mr. Sinclair is not aware of this ploy.

Let's pass it along.

Thank you

Mr Gresham

(01/29/2003; 22:29:42 MDT - Msg ID: 96223)

Dan D.

"Aha!" I just got it. You better watch out -- I hear Selsun Blue is under new, aggressive management. Just a friendly warning...(from one slipping off over the edge into golden dreams)

Black Blade

(01/29/2003; 23:12:17 MDT - Msg ID: 96224)

Iraqi Oilfields

http://www.oilandgasinternational.com/departments/regional_spotlight/jan03_iraq.html
Snippit:

(1/22/2003) Iraq is not a large country, but within its borders and beneath its deserts lie the world's second largest oil reserves, an enormous, barely tapped resource of more than 11% of the world's known oil reserves, some 112 billion bbl of proven reserves and perhaps three times that volume in reserves not yet discovered. Today, Iraq is at a crossroads that may carry it into another abyss of death and destruction or may relieve the decades of depression and demagoguery under which it has suffered for far too long. But which route the country will be propelled along depends not only on the vagaries of its President Saddam Hussein, but on the wishes and wiles of others who obsess about controlling not only the strategic geographical position Iraq holds, but its geological wealth as well.

Black Blade: The article is a nice to the point history of Iraq and the petroleum wealth under the sand. A secure source of abundant "cheap energy" is in the national interest. Without "cheap oil" the global economy stops cold - period! To listen to the politicians a war against Iraq is about WMD. But it's not about oil right? Hmmm�

Galerider

(01/30/2003; 00:03:08 MDT - Msg ID: 96225)

Japan Items

The stock market over here slipped back into the red towards the close. Guess they fully digested the 1 billion hit AOL is going to take. Also, BB, energy crunch is starting to come home to roost here for us. Rates are going to increase. Can hardly wait for the summer.

Trojan

(01/30/2003; 00:13:19 MDT - Msg ID: 96226)

Jim Sinclair's Heads Up VIP "The Ratio Spread"

http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/headsup/2003/0129.htm http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/headsup/2003/0129.htm

I just read Jim Sinclair's latest "Heads Up"

I would appreciate some feedback on this article by folks who understand it better than I do.

I follow it in principle but am not sure how it works in actual practice.

Can this be done against Gold Stocks in ALL markets ?
E.G. Amex, Nyse, Toronto Etc...

For example Newmont in the US and Novagold in Canada.

Thanks in advance for any further enlightment on this subject that Sinclair thinks is Important.

Gold Hill

(01/30/2003; 00:31:18 MDT - Msg ID: 96227)

"debt bubble" Black Blade msg#96215

Your comment was addressed to the federal level. Where does that leave the 50 used to be independent states of the union? Some are in better shapes fiscally than others. I'll bet you've considered this and would appreciate your comments.
Cheers.
Gold Hill

Black Blade

(01/30/2003; 00:36:39 MDT - Msg ID: 96228)

Galerider - Japanese Utilities to Raise Power Rates on Higher Fuel Cost

Black Blade

(01/30/2003; 00:43:47 MDT - Msg ID: 96229)

Gold Hill - State Debt

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Local%20Muni%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_munibonds&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk∣dle=blk&s=APjWp_RL7VS5TLiBT
The link above is about the states debt burdens. It is a matter of states spending like drunken sailors on leave durin times of plenty. Fortunately I live in a state with no deficit and no state income tax. I also posted on this a couple of days ago. msg. #96070

Cheers!

- Black Blade

ElGordo

(01/30/2003; 01:00:47 MDT - Msg ID: 96230)

Does Saddam plan to use Oil Wells as "Doomsday" Weapon?

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=30765Snippet:

In the ancient land known as the "cradles of civilization," there are new concerns that an environmental Armageddon is about to take place.

Will Saddam Hussein exchange his oil wealth for a fiery inferno as evinced in Kuwait in 1991? Will the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers flow with fuel instead of water?
------
"The Tigris and Euphrates hold a large part of the fresh water for the Middle East," Skinner told the Telegraph. "If he drains oil into them, we can't use that water for firefighting. If there are ground fires, we may not be able to get to the wells."

In 1991, Saddam poured into the Persian Gulf at least 10 million gallons of crude � over 20 times more than the Exxon Valdez spilled in Alaska � to preclude a marine assault by igniting a curtain of fire. The cost of cleaning it up was $700 million.
_______________
Its a long article but an interesting read. I think its quite likely
Saddam will blow up his oil fields and otherwise cause as much
havoc as he can. He's done it before.

Black Blade

(01/30/2003; 01:12:09 MDT - Msg ID: 96231)

Platinum fixed at fresh 17-year high

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=2133607
Snippit:

LONDON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Precious metal platinum set a new 17-year peak on Wednesday afternoon in European trading amid rising lease rates and future supply fears, traders said. The metal was set or "fixed" in the London afternoon session at $654.00 a troy ounce, its highest since early September 1986 and compared with $649.00 at the morning fix. Platinum prices have gained some 12 percent since the end of 2002 as fears of potential supply disruptions spurred fund buying, while soaring gold prices have also aided the rise. "Lease rates are driving it today, they have gone up again," one London trader said, adding that one-month rates were quoted at 11.5 percent, up around one percent on the same time on Tuesday. Traders were keeping an eye on developments at the world's fifth largest platinum producer, Russia's Norilsk Nickel, where management are still in negotiations to avert a strike over pay. Trade unionists and management said on Tuesday the talks would not bring results until Friday. A projected supply deficit in 2003 was expected to continue supporting prices throughout the year. This could be exacerbated in the longer term if fuel cell technology takes off. Fuel cells create electricity without pollution by combining hydrogen and oxygen into water and, in their current form, are largely platinum-based. In Tuesday night's State of the Union speech, U.S. President George W. Bush called for $1.2 billion in research funding to develop fuel cells.

Black Blade: This almost slipped under the radar.

Black Blade

(01/30/2003; 01:22:56 MDT - Msg ID: 96232)

Market Indicators

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures are lower, the USD is higher, Gold just took a bit of a hit in London after slowing grinding upward in Asian trade, oil is lower, NatGas is higher ahead of today's storage report, and grains are higher. Still, it could get rather "entertaining" as the clueless Lemmings get lured and slaughtered.

- Black Blade

Galerider

(01/30/2003; 02:01:08 MDT - Msg ID: 96235)

LIVED THROUGH THE PAIN

Gold is dropping because the lemming masters say they see an improvement in the economy coming. That's what we in the land of the rising sun used to say about the yen. Just another kabuki fan show to herd in the masses.

Belgian

(01/30/2003; 03:23:18 MDT - Msg ID: 96238)

@ Trojan (and all)

What you see...experience...hear...undergo, is nothing but paper-gold Actions and Reactions...Gambling, on and on and on... ! Paper that creates and moves more paper, ad nauseum.

What exactly does one desires to *understand* in such a Paper-Avalanche - Deluge (Hoi PA) of all times ?

Let the paper-Gurus, *paperize*, as they please !

Make as much paper-profits as you can...with any paper.

But understand that, ultimately, we all land at the REAL PROFITS OF THE YELLOW PHYSICAL ROCK ! (cfr. A/FOA)

Isn't it all so obvious ?!

Topaz

(01/30/2003; 03:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 96240)

Belgian

Your China post (Gold/Bonds) was a beautiful read Sir B...what a strategy eh! Hope they can keep the Physical metal flowing.
Couple of things of note - Paul O'Neill on CNBC this morning....expect some mention of the $50B over 5 Yr's to Africa (in light of our previous chat)...and the upcoming Yield parity on the Treasury/Bund 10yr...may signal a $ reversal.

Best to you Belgian.

TownCrier

(01/30/2003; 03:29:07 MDT - Msg ID: 96241)

GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar firms, oil dips on Iraq diplomacy, Fed

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030130/markets_global_4.htmlThursday January 30, 4:16 am ET

LONDON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - The dollar firmed, European stocks rose and oil prices dipped on Thursday after Washington said it would make a last diplomatic effort to avert war with Iraq and the U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged.

Safe-haven gold and government debt prices fell as U.S. administration officials said President George W. Bush and his top aides were opening a final "diplomatic window" with allies to try to avoid the seemingly inevitable conflict over U.N. demands Iraq give up weapons of mass destruction.

...Fed policymakers said risks to the U.S. economy remained evenly balanced between higher prices and renewed downturn and expressed hope the U.S. economy would pick up once fears of war with Iraq have lifted.

-------(article at url)-----

Looking down the road, with government debt securities now near historic lows (yield), what do you imagine the incentive will be to keep holding them for low yield while incurring principle losses at such time that the trend is generally felt to have reversed? Will the Fed step in as buyer of last resort to prop up the bond market? What a flood of cash that will likely be, aggravating the scenario. All the more reason to choose gold now. It is good for the long haul.

R.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/30/2003; 03:44:21 MDT - Msg ID: 96242)

Ally yourself with a gold broker that is knowledgeable and also cares...

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

newsletter

ABCs book Take note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

Black Blade

(01/30/2003; 03:59:15 MDT - Msg ID: 96243)

Gold looks pretty attractive for investors

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/sub/companies/story/0,4574,71224,00.html
Snippit:

A continued run-up from the current level of around US$368 an ounce to US$400 is predicted by many while others say the rally could stretch to US$500. While no one has predicted gold will hit US$800 an ounce, as it did in 1980 after the second oil shock, some analysts say the potential for further appreciation is virtually open-ended.

The best analyses of where gold is headed come not from gold bugs or gold miners but from more agnostic sources. One with good credentials in this respect is David Hale, chief economist at the Zurich Group, who is known for the objectivity of his analysis. Mr Hale has recently produced a report entitled Why is the gold price rallying? in which he concludes that 'many of the pre-conditions now exist for a sustained gold price rally' and that 'the price could easily shoot into the US$400-500 per ounce range'.

Another factor influencing gold is the US dollar's decline. This reflects not only fears of an Iraq war but also concerns over the yawning US current account deficit. Middle Eastern countries are moving money out of dollars on concerns the US government may 'attempt to seize their assets as part of its war on terrorism', says Mr Hale. Swiss bankers say nearly US$200 billon has left the American banking system in the past year for safe keeping in Switzerland and offshore locations.

Black Blade: The current strengthening of the dollar is putting pressure on Gold, but it can't last due to deteriorating fundamentals. This knee-jerk reaction will prove to be short lived though could get quite volatile in the short term.

BTW, just saw Goldcorp CEO McEwen on CNBC. He says that Gold will retest the 1980 highs and worldwide Gold production will decline 12% over the next four years.

Topaz

(01/30/2003; 04:11:42 MDT - Msg ID: 96244)

Town Crier.

Hey Randy,
Gee mate, that'd be a tall order, even for the Fed (taming a runaway Bond Mkt).
You've got to hand it to them, they've run Gold up to weaken the $ sufficiently to ease pressure on Bonds... and in the same move drag the opposition down to their level...a steady as she goes from the FOMC, $ strengthens, all is hunky-dory, and the World gets a lesson in "management"....AGAIN!
You WILL get your Hyperinflation Randy.

Farfel

(01/30/2003; 04:16:41 MDT - Msg ID: 96245)

The Jim Sinclair Thesis Re-examined ( A Corollary)

I remain skeptical of Jim Sinclair's thesis that Wall Street hedge funds in toto are long gold, short gold stocks. As I stated in a previous essay, OTC activity lends credence to the idea that foreign specs via US-based proxies are acting as a major trigger to higher bullion prices, NOT domestic specs. From all appearances, large foreign specs are challenging the commercials and succeeding to date in raising gold prices. Moreover, given the physical short position in gold accumulated by major Wall Street houses over the past decade via the gold carry trade, it is not in their best interests to be long anything with the word "gold" (or "silver") attached to it.

However, for the sake of argument, let us grant Mr. Sinclair the benefit of the doubt. In the end analysis, it does not really matter because such a hedge strategy as he describes is categorically doomed to failure in the intermediate term.

The central problem revolves around the ongoing revaluation of gold mining companies' reserves. As the gold price marches higher, unhedged gold reserves increase in value. All the shorting in the world cannot preclude that fact.

At a certain point in time, the suppression of gold stock values via short selling will lead to a substantive difference between market value and real value. In other words, irrational, excessive short selling of gold stocks depresses gold stock values even as the actual gold price marches upward. Excessive irrational short selling of gold stocks creates an unsustainable disequilibrium in gold stock values.

The resultant revaluation of unhedged gold reserves in real terms will lead inevitably to the following probabilities:

1) A hostile takeover attempt by one gold producer aimed against the other, since the acquisitor will recognize the market's undervaluation of real reserves in the target company.

2) A hostile takeover attempt by a spec financial consortium aimed against the undervalued, unhedged gold producer, since the acquistor will recognize the market's undervaluation of real reserves in the target company.

3) A potential leveraged buyout by gold management interests (or their proxies) since nobody is in a better position to recognize the market's undervaluation of unhedged reserves than management itself.

Bottom line: a hedge strategy only makes sense when you counterbalance an entity rising in price against one falling in price. Yet as the gold price rises, in a normal and logical world, unhedged gold producers MUST rise in value too. Anybody attempting to disrupt this equation throws a whole market into disequlibrium.

In an ultimately efficient market, the disequilibrium will be recognized by speculators and they will act in order to maximize their gains and take advantage of the discrepancy between low market value and the higher real value of unhedged reserves.

The patent illogic of trying to go long gold bullion while shorting gold stocks sows the seeds of its own destruction in the intermediate term.

That is essentially why I place little credibility in Mr. Sinclair's analysis. Rather, from my perspective, the excessive shorting of gold stocks is more an imitation of a "scorched Earth policy" adopted by the gold short funds. Recognizing that another year of triple digit percentage returns in the gold mining sector will trigger a tremendous liquidation in bubble financial sectors (stocks, bonds, real estate) in order to target monies into the far more rewarding gold stocks, the major Wall Street players are throwing every available dollar and credit at their disposal in order to cap artificially the gold mining stocks ( very much analogous to the strategy adopted in the gold carry trade whereby the commercials continued to utilize the gold carry trade to short gold long after the real rate of return had turned negative. However, they continued to maintain the gold carry trade since the accumulated physical short position over the years had become so large (and essentially uncoverable) so as to leave them no other choice but to maintain the gold carry trade as a vehicle of mere gold price suppression rather than a means of achieving profits). The only area in which Sinclair and I are in agreement pertains to his belief that a good deal of the excessive shorting is occuring on a NAKED basis.

The huge acceleration of gold/gold stock shorting over the past month is nothing less than "Custer's Last Stand," as Wall Street digs in its heels and tries to stop gold/gold stocks in their path before they threaten to suck liquidity from bubble markets (stocks, bonds, real estate) in much the same way that internet stocks captured liquidity from every capital corner in America during the late Nineties.

However, if history is any judge, gold and gold stocks will win.....and in a manner that will astonish even the most optimistic goldbugs.

LeSin

(01/30/2003; 04:37:09 MDT - Msg ID: 96246)

EURO Share of Reserve Currency Rockets - in Russia

http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20030130102216.shtml

Share of Euro in Russian reserves rockets

RBC, 30.01.2003, Moscow 10:22:16.In 2002, Russian gold and currency reserves advanced from $36.6bn to $47.8bn, the department of external and public relations of the Russian Central Bank reported today.

The Central Bank points out that the growth mainly took place due to US dollar purchases on the domestic market. In connection with this, the Central Bank bought for US dollars other foreign currencies in 2002 for diversifying the structure of the reserves' currency structure. As of the beginning of 2002, currency reserves were assets in US dollars and Euros, the share of Euros being less than 10 percent of currency reserves. By the end of 2002, the share of Euros in the reserve structure more than doubled. The same happened to other currencies. The share of dollars dropped from almost 90 percent to less than 75 percent over the past year.

--------------------------------------------------------

Steady as she (euro) grows
Cheers "S"

Knallgold

(01/30/2003; 04:45:50 MDT - Msg ID: 96247)

500?

For some it seems rather excentric to forecast Goldprices 400-500,even 800.I never heard credible reasons why it should stop there.Just to neutralise the past 20 years it would take 3000$/oz.!Then we have Dow/Gold ratio etc you know all the reasons.

It is politically incorrect to mention Goldprices above 1000,you'd be thrown out of the establishment.Lunatic,Goldbug,conspiracy nut...
But 10'000$/oz. seems a reasonable and well researched guesstimate.

Oh and BTW I always wondered what the term "Chief" economists implies.We have economists and then we have...or is there a chief economy?

Belgian

(01/30/2003; 05:02:39 MDT - Msg ID: 96248)

@ Towncrier

Diplomatic efforts, before closing the window : All these "so called" efforts center around one thing : Saddam, go away ! Saddam, stop talking - threathening, about oil for euro and stop your efforts to give OPEC (Arabian oil) the necessary, nuclear (or other), deterrent. Leave the POO-management to the consumers of the oil ! So far for "the window" !

Randy : It are the bond's price-rises (lower IRs) that do save the majority of financial houses. Rising interest rates are the "terminator". cfr. UK-financials are invested in stocks for 50% !!! Confetitize the existing catastrophe.
Thanks for reminding us, constantly !

Mister Gold (J.s)...another rising star on the paper-gold-guru firmament. Next one, please !

Belgian

(01/30/2003; 05:18:00 MDT - Msg ID: 96249)

@ KnallGold

Glad to see you brought those idiotic POG-projections, back to the spot ! 400$ > 500$ > 600$ > 850$...anyone is free to make his/her guess, anytime for any reason ! Just pick your most convenient figure for the moment. What a terrible, irritating, idiocy. Und kein ende.
Notice that a certain "web" simply calls us (refers to) the POG-32,000 $(�) idiots-lunatics.

This POG-number festival is simply the essence of all the paper-gold, punters, players, movers and shakers.
The paperizers ban any educative communication on Gold's VALUE and corresponding, realistic, price.

Gold-Advocates should consider the gold-paperizers as nothing more than innocent, "useful" idiots, constantly denigrating Gold for the sake of the continuing paper-chase, contests.

They all "hate" Physical Gold, disconnecting further and further from their paper-dreams. Amen.

Dollar Bill

(01/30/2003; 05:24:19 MDT - Msg ID: 96250)

Doug Nolan asks:

"Were Wall Street and the hedge funds borrowing overseas to finance their ballooning securities holdings? It is worth noting that since the beginning of 1998 (19 quarters), Securities Broker/Dealers have ballooned balance sheets 81% to $1.4 Trillion. Have the Wall Street firms partially financed their enormous holdings of U.S. securities by borrowing in Euros, Swiss francs or other low-yielding foreign currencies ("King Dollar Global Carry Trade")? Such a strategy worked wonderfully while the euro was losing ground against King Dollar. Not today.

And are the major Wall Street firms and money center banks exposed to dollar weakness through their derivative books? After all, for some time they have enjoyed writing dollar protection (either directly or in the swaps market) with little concern for hedging King Dollar exposure. Today they worry.
And how extensively had the Global Leveraged Speculating Community obtained cheap finance borrowing in previously weak euros (or shorting a sinking gold?) to finance inflating U.S. financial assets? And, did it become popular to borrow in Euros to speculate in higher-yielding Mexican or Brazilian securities? Such a strategy would have been hugely profitable for some time, but has abruptly turned quite sour. Priced in Euros, the Mexican peso is already down 7.5% this month, with the Brazilian real, Columbian peso, and Chilean peso down about 5%. The demise of King Dollar alters so many things�including relative prices, relationships, and perceptions"

Belgian

(01/30/2003; 06:18:23 MDT - Msg ID: 96251)

Divide and Rule....

8 European countries signed a common declaration in support for US action on Iraq : UK-Spain-Italy-Portugal-Denmark-Tjechoslovakia-Bulgaria.
Each underwriter has its own reason(s) for doing so. But what might we learn (conclude) from this initiative with regard to the euro > dollar > oil ?

Weaken the euro through division !
Bribe with dollar-favors (favoritism) !
Theath with sanctions (economical)!
Act as the eternal intrigant (subversion) !
Favor oligarchic structures (Berlusconi) !
etc...

More evidence for the unstoppable struggle between the two currencies for the status of reserve-currency !

In today's Iraq-debates, someone atracted the attention to the following classic (imperial) strategy :
Devastating Gulf war I + 12 years of dramatic santions = A complete dislocated country, waiting for any liberator !
Change the regime, plunder the oil, distribute some of the wealth and hip, hip hurray...all is well in the new dollarlala-oi-llala land !

Then vicious waves of retaliating-terror follow and the euro will be blamed (associated with) for all further atrocities to come !

Ohhhh, what a wonderful world..... Yeeeehhh... (L. Armstrong)

mikal

(01/30/2003; 06:42:57 MDT - Msg ID: 96252)

@Belgium

"...and the euro will be blamed for some time to come." Won't the dollar be blamed here? Or at least the holders of $$? The reconstruction will require Euros and dollars and Yen, etc. How can the oil flow quickly if basic infrastructure and oil facilities are deeply damaged in the best case scenario? Plus figure in the need for sniper security, mine clearing, environmental and water remediation. Could take years just to put out well fires, of wells that can be salvaged. And the terrain is far vaster and more diverse than Kuwait, with many, many times more wells in existance than her.

mikal

(01/30/2003; 07:09:51 MDT - Msg ID: 96254)

U.S. GDP "growth" yardstick comes up short of prediction

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/gdp/2003-01-30-gdp_x.htm 1/30/2003 8:40 AM
Economic growth slows to a crawl -Excerpts:
WASHINGTON (AP) � The U.S. economy slowed dramatically in the final quarter of last year, growing at a annual rate of just 0.7%.....
The meager rise in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2002 came after the economy grew at a respectable 4% rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced within the United States and is considered the broadest barometer of the economy's health.
The performance was weaker than the 0.9% increase analysts were predicting....." End snippitts

Zhisheng

(01/30/2003; 07:10:00 MDT - Msg ID: 96255)

Discrepancy in Price

I have noticed that for the past half-hour the February Comex futures price has been about 10 to 15 cents lower than the spot price.

Attempt to have options expire out of the money?

mikal

(01/30/2003; 07:15:36 MDT - Msg ID: 96256)

@Zhisheng

I have no doubt that attempts were made to do that. Right on cue at end of month. Hey, what's paper for, anyways? 8>)

Dollar Bill

(01/30/2003; 07:26:32 MDT - Msg ID: 96257)

Something from Sinclairs site.

Early 70's analysis

"The U.S. deficit was the principal means by which the rest of the world was supplied with additional reserves. If the United States failed to correct its balance of payments deficit, it would no longer be able to maintain gold convertibility; on the other hand, if it corrected its deficit, the rest of the world would run short of reserves and bring on slower growth or, worse, deflation."

Buongiorno!

(01/30/2003; 08:46:15 MDT - Msg ID: 96258)

$/gold--both up

USD rebounding up, as is gold. don't recall seeing that too often. My take is that it shows remarkable strength in gold market. Others?
BUONGIORNO!

Dollar Bill

(01/30/2003; 08:47:15 MDT - Msg ID: 96259)

Courtesy of F. S.Com

How Taxes Really Work
by The Unknown Taxpayer
January 29, 2003

Let's put tax cuts in terms everyone can understand. Suppose that every day, ten men go out for dinner. The bill for all ten comes to $100.

If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:

The first four men -- the poorest -- would pay nothing; the fifth would pay $1, the sixth would pay $3, the seventh $7, the eighth $12, the ninth $18, and the tenth man -- the richest - would pay $59.

That's what they decided to do. The ten men ate dinner in the restaurant every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement --

until one day, the owner threw them a curve (in tax language, a tax cut).

"Since you are all such good customers," he said, "I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily meal by $20." So now dinner for the ten only cost $80.00."

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes. So the first four men were unaffected. They would still eat for free. But what about the other six -- the paying customers? How could they divvy up the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his "fair share?"

The six men realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would end up being PAID to eat their meal. So the restaurant owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.

And so the fifth man paid nothing, the sixth pitched in $2, the seventh paid $5, the eighth paid $9, the ninth paid $12, leaving the tenth man with a bill of $52 instead of his earlier $59. Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to eat for free.

But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.

"I only got a dollar out of the $20," declared the sixth man who pointed to the tenth. "But he got $7!"

"Yeah, that's right," exclaimed the fifth man, "I only saved a dollar, too! It's unfair that he got seven times more than me!"

"That's true!" shouted the seventh man," Why should he get $7 back, when I got only $2? The wealthy get all the breaks!"

"Wait a minute," yelled the first four men in unison, "We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!"

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.

The next night he didn't show up for dinner, so the nine sat down and ate without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered, a little late, what was very important. They were FIFTY-TWO DOLLARS short of paying the bill!

Imagine that!

And that, boys and girls, journalists and college instructors, is how the tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up at the table anymore.

Where would that leave the rest? Unfortunately, most taxing authorities anywhere cannot seem to grasp this rather straightforward logic!

a nation of one

(01/30/2003; 08:54:49 MDT - Msg ID: 96260)

gold fixed at $350 for ever and ever?

http://www.rense.com/general34/retrun.htm
Would anyone care to point out what's wrong with Mr. Brunner's thinking?

Hipplebeck

(01/30/2003; 09:00:20 MDT - Msg ID: 96261)

Dollar Bill

If the rich guy is smart he will buy dinner every time.
It is only through the hard work of the others that he is able to be rich.

Clink!

(01/30/2003; 09:31:09 MDT - Msg ID: 96262)

@DollarBill

That's how most tax systems work. What the little story doesn't mention is that the rich guy actually owned the restaurant and therefore was not only able to charge his lunches to the company (which reimbursed his expenses) but the restaurant got a tax break because of increased business costs !

Kagalaska

(01/30/2003; 09:48:27 MDT - Msg ID: 96263)

hipplebeck msg#96261

If the rich guy bought the meal(gave a handout) each time, the recipients(societal leechs), would grow lazy and fat and in time would feel they were entitled. They would congratulate themsevles (out earshot of the rich guy) on having found a way to get something for nothing.They would greet each of in passing with a wink or a nod, forming a bond, a club if you will(WELFARE STATE).Heaven help the rich guy, on hearing of this club and feeling he was taken advatage of stopped the free meal, the reciepients would squeal and howl. Someone(a bleeding heart liberal, socialist, communist, stalinist, maybe you Hipplebeck) would take up thier cause and attempt to shame, guilt trip or otherwise harrass the rich guy back into giving something for nothing. After some time, the rich guy, having long ago given in just to shut the whiners up, would notice that his fortune was dwindling away. His only recourse was to protect his wealth from the welfare states tricks and downright dishonest practices he decided on gold and silver. Only then did he have full control over that which was his, Protected from the banksters who had any number of ways to fold, stretch, rip and steal "paper wealth".

HIPPLEBECK: This forum is about gold not your blatent sociast agenda.You waste the valuable time of those posters and visitors who come here for insightful and meaningful dicussion with your off subject diatribes.

MK, SIR Gandalf, somebody please help this poster find the door and post a guard.

White Rose

(01/30/2003; 09:56:22 MDT - Msg ID: 96264)

Watch the gold and silver prices for a change

While we are arguing social pecking order, the gold and silver spot prices are getting some exercise today. Make some popcorn, enjoy.

R Powell

(01/30/2003; 09:59:16 MDT - Msg ID: 96265)

Knotakare

Thought I'd let you know...... Your message (96206) from yesterday suggesting GTC sale orders of mining shares has found its way to the neighboring forums. They like the strategy! If this does reduce the pool from which short sellers "borrow" then you may have indeed started a limiting action.
May I suggest that now might be a good time to think about what your next move should be after those stop orders (placed above the current price) get filled!
I'm beginning to like the length of time required for "corrections" in gold and silver prices now. I was wondering if the 355 level had to be retouched before we continue upward. Now it doesn't appear so, and I hope not.
Rich

Hipplebeck

(01/30/2003; 10:03:29 MDT - Msg ID: 96266)

kagalaska

please don't try to hang a tag on me.
I am not a socialist.
I was making an observation in response to an interesting story I read here.
Personal attacks are not condusive to good debate.
If you have a problem with my response please keep it impersonal.

Kagalaska

(01/30/2003; 10:09:22 MDT - Msg ID: 96267)

SPOT AND SPIKE

Spot and Spike seem to be tired of having sticks poked through the fence at them. Maybe they want some short rump. Excellent runup in spot prices Gold +4.80 Silver +.12. Somehow I expect TPTB to flood the market with paper towards the close. Maybe just maybe this is "T" Day.

Gandalf the White

(01/30/2003; 10:11:11 MDT - Msg ID: 96268)

<;-)

Nice move there SPIKE and SPOT !
UP $7 + shows the CABAL that they can not hold you DOWN !
JUMP SPOT, JUMP !
<;-)

Ulysses

(01/30/2003; 10:20:49 MDT - Msg ID: 96269)

Kagalaska

"Behind every fortune lies a crime". Balzac.
There are honest rich people. They are the exception, not the rule.

Gandalf the White

(01/30/2003; 10:23:47 MDT - Msg ID: 96270)

Looks like ANOTHER "Beautiful Day", Black Blade !!

Pizz

(01/30/2003; 10:51:51 MDT - Msg ID: 96271)

February might be real interesting

Can't help but remind myself that a rew weeks back Sinclair was marshalling the more wealthy futures traders to take delivery. He implied he and possible otheres would be doing it, and I believe him.

Now, as of 1/31, this could get quite interesting. May also explain the drive down on the PM stocks lately as one last feable attempt by the shorts to run in the weak hands to be able to cover. Most PM stocks I follow are at suppoprt and are quite oversold on a short term basis.

I think the odds favor a good runup for Feb, maybe even better than we could hope for. The geopolitical environment appears to be able to give us a 3 week runnup befor war, as buy the rumor before selling the action late in Feb. It even may appear that the reaction off this potential high, may even be a bit higher than we are now. and if the war goes bad or has a few hiccups. . . ..

Cheap gold window keeps closing. . . . .

Traveler: Thanks for your posts on dollar, etc. Read them and haven't had too much time to digest them, but your logic and analysis make sense. I've been playing around with the same ideas, and you've shortened my thinking and research time emmnsly -- thanks again.

Pizz

Kagalaska

(01/30/2003; 11:11:07 MDT - Msg ID: 96272)

Hipplebeck msg#96266 Ulysses msg #96269

Snip from Hipplebeck msg#96263 "It is only through the hard work of others that he is able to be rich"
This statement implies(through the word ONLY)that his(the rich guy)own personal self disipline, self sacrifice, dedication, perseverance, and courage mean nothing. This slight is a socialist theme used repeatedly by those who feed on and encourage laziness and envy.
Hipplebeck no personal slight intended just "If it quacks like a duck, it's a duck".
My appologies to the court for having sullied these
hallowed halls of learning with politics.
"Politics is the art of looking for trouble,finging it
whether it exists or not,diagnosing it incorrectly and
appling the wrong remedy"
Ernest Benn

Daniel Druff

(01/30/2003; 11:11:38 MDT - Msg ID: 96273)

a nation of one

What's wrong with Professor Brenner's thinking?
When the good professor writes, "If demand for the U.S. dollar continues to drop, the Fed will issue treasury bonds, and if it rises, it would buy them or other government bonds. Once the U.S. dollar becomes 'as good as gold,'..."

As good as gold...the Dollar? HaHaHa...NEVER!

Better get physical, especially with academic thinking like that floating around.

Thank you

(01/30/2003; 11:27:31 MDT - Msg ID: 96274)

(No Subject)

Look at the battle to close gold sub $370!!! Too funny.

G$

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/30/2003; 11:33:49 MDT - Msg ID: 96275)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. I've noticed that USAGOLD / Centennial stresses education more than most of your competitors. Why is that?

Randy interjects... Mike is way too nice to say this bluntly so I will. What I've noticed about the apparent rationale behind some of those other firms' operating philosophy is that, if they bend the client over far enough for their wallet the first time, they really don't have to care about getting repeat business. It doesn't have to be that way, but some people simply don't take the time to shop around for a quality firm. They should.

Q. What are some of the criteria a prospective investor should look for in a gold firm?

MK. Credibility, longevity, pricing, service and compatibility -- all come into the mix. Of those I rate credibility and its sister virtues -- reliability and reputability -- the most important. Too many of the national firms have brokers who were selling condos at the beach or automobiles a month ago and now suddenly they've become "gold experts" selling leverage schemes, $50,000 rare coins, reproduction medallions at 25 times their gold content, or overpriced silver investments -- we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations. Most sophisticated gold investors would probably like to avoid that sort of thing.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/30/2003; 11:34:14 MDT - Msg ID: 96276)

Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

Belgian

(01/30/2003; 12:09:00 MDT - Msg ID: 96277)

@ Mikal

What I tried to say in a too condensed posting, was the following :
In the global currency-arena...there must be a "good" ($) currency and a "bad" (�) one. It is an important psychological aspect, applicable in any war. If Euroland could be blamed for things going wrong or smooth, in the M.E....this could be reflected on the $-� relationship.

For the time being, the general public, starts to percept the euro as a rather good or slightly better currency than the old dollar, everyone is accustomed with.

Masses and even elitist financial movers are very sensitive to "perceptions". May I refer back to China's Gold-strategy.
Chineze know very well that they will have to rely on massive exports for quite a while after being able to grow internally. This implicates that their own currency has to remain flexible against their major export-destination ($ or �). That's why they easely understand that holding physical Gold in possession is always a winning card against the law of permanent currency depreciation !

Yes, even the euro knows that it can't escape the gravity of depreciation and will therefore introduce the Free Physical Only Goldmarket so that each and everyone can defend him/herself against the eternal evil of depreciation (currency-devaluation).

With very low IRs, everywhere, people will slowly realize that those IRs on their bonds are not compensating for their currency's depreciation ( exchange rate + purchasing power). This will get much more clear as soon as price-inflation breaks through !

If this war in the ME + after-terror, puts the dollar - US in a bad daylight...the dollar-currency will suffer from
its bad reputation. That is a risky business for the dollar, since an alternative, competing currency (euro) is on offer.

If the US succeeds in turning this war into an much heralded act of total liberation...the opposite (low esteme) for the euro might be the result. The dollar will be praised as liberator and be bought (valued).

Then the euro has to defend itself with its Gold-weapon and rely on the co-operation of its main oil-ally, Saudi Arabia + Iran. Yes, Gold wars (F.Lips )

Gandalf the White

(01/30/2003; 12:15:52 MDT - Msg ID: 96278)

UPDATE on POG Contest "King of the Hill!"

PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 = $358.1 + $7.0 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a Low = $350.0
1/17/03 = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a Low = $355.3 and Sir ROCK was "King of the Hill" !
1/21/03 = $357.5 + $0.7 with a HIGH = $358.1 and a Low = $353.4 and Sir Goldenboy was "KING of the HILL"
1/22/03 = $359.9 + $2.4 with a HIGH = $360.4 and a Low = $357.8 and Sir Henri was "KING of the HILL!"
1/23/03 = $364.6 + $4.7 with a HIGH = $367.7 and a Low = $360.0 and ... WOWSERS .. A TIE !!
.......................................................BOTH Sir monTROZ & Sir Rock were "KINGS of the Hill !!!"
1/24/03 = $368.4 + $3.8 with a HIGH = $370.2 and a Low = $362.8 and Sir J-Bullion" was "KING of the HILL!"
1/27/03 = $369.4 + $1.0 with a HIGH = $373.7 and a Low = $367.8 and Sir Truthcaster is "King of the HILL!"
1/28/03 = $370.0 + $0.6 with a HIGH = $370.2 and a Low = $365.5 and ... WOWSERS .. ANOTHER TIE !!
................................................BOTH Sir Black Blade and SIR Ole Man were "KINGS of the HILL!"
1/29/03 = $366.3 - $3.7 with a HIGH = $371.2 and a Low = $365.5 and ...............
GOLDHEART White Rose is "King of the Hill!"
1/30/03 = $368.2 + $1.9 with a HIGH of $370.1 and a Low = $362.6 and Sir Zelts is NOW "King of the Hill!"
====
We shall know the CONTEST WINNER in about 24 Hours !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/30/2003; 12:18:50 MDT - Msg ID: 96279)

OOPS --- DARN fingers are not following the thoughts !

1/30/03 = $369.2 + $2.9 with a HIGH of $370.1 and a Low = $362.6 and Sir Zelts is NOW "King of the Hill!"

TownCrier

(01/30/2003; 12:20:00 MDT - Msg ID: 96280)

Gold Shrugs Off Soft Start

http://www.djnewswires.com/cgi-bin/displayStory.pl?storyId=2003013017330001.xmlNew York, Jan. 30 (OsterDowJones) - Comex Apr gold futures opened lower Thursday, just below the $365 level following some speculator long liquidation overnight on the back of the strong rebound in the U.S. dollar ... as the session wore on by 1225 ET April gold had regained a footing above the $370 level.

Apr is expected to struggle breaking on to fresh highs over the coming days without new impetus, however ... with reports emerging Thursday that U.S. Special Forces troops are already conducting missions in northern Iraq and that Iraq's ambassador to the United Nations was reported to have warned that U.S. facilities would be attacked by Muslims should the U.S. attack Iraq, that fresh impetus may not be far off, dealers said.

...resistance for Apr is seen at $375 and then at $380.

------(from article at url)-----

Gandalf the White

(01/30/2003; 12:23:48 MDT - Msg ID: 96281)

DARN --- THEY CHANGED the SETTLEMENT PRICE !! <;- (

OOPS --- DARN fingers are not following the thoughts !
1/30/03 = $368.6 + $2.3 with a HIGH of $370.1 and a Low = $362.6 and Sir Toolie is NOW "King of the Hill!"
===
I have to go take an NAP !
<;-)

TownCrier

(01/30/2003; 12:29:32 MDT - Msg ID: 96282)

Single currency politics

http://allafrica.com/stories/200301300474.htmlHEADLINE: IMF Disclaims Report Condemning Single Currency

excerpts:
The on-going debate on the workability of a single currency for the West African sub-region, took another turn yesterday as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has disclaimed a report submitted by its researchers opposing the project.

...The Nigerian government had reacted swiftly when the research report was first published, stating that no amount of blackmail would stop the West African Monetary Union project. The Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Economic Integration and Cooperation in Africa, Dr. Brownson Dede, had described the report as calculated attempt to scuttle moves to integrate and develop the economies of countries in the sub-region.

Brownson said Nigeria has put in more efforts to herald the birth of a single currency in West Africa and that she would reject any attempt to downgrade the efforts from any quarters or institutions.

...IMF said a decision by any of its member-countries to join a currency union or to adopt any other foreign exchange rate arrangement is a question of national sovereignty.

------(from article at url)------

Have another look at that final bit. The IMF is making pitches for sovereignty. Sovereignty! My goodness, and to think, all this time we thought the IMF was driven by economics, not politics.

R.

Black Blade

(01/30/2003; 12:40:20 MDT - Msg ID: 96283)

Natural Gas Weekly Storage Report

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/ngs.html
Storage Highlights:

Working gas in storage was 1,729 Bcf as of Friday, January 24, 2003, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 247 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 681 Bcf less than last year at this time and 190 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,919 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 187 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 165 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 48 Bcf below the 5-year average of 535 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 64 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 45 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 18 Bcf. At 1,729 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range. Last week's storage decline data was revised upward from a decline of �210 bcf to �219 bcf.

Black Blade: This week's data exceeded my upper end estimate of �240 bcf and coupled with last week's decline this presents a sharply declining storage outlook with the month of February yet to come even as there is a lack of drilling interest. Even if temperatures moderate to normal for the rest of the heating season we should emerge into injection season at critically low levels. NatGas prices should begin to spike higher in the short term (at least). Also, US oil inventories are at record low operational levels. We should see an increase in transportation and manufacturing costs adding pressure to an already over-stressed economy.

TownCrier

(01/30/2003; 12:45:07 MDT - Msg ID: 96284)

Wither the dollar? A refreshingly candid article tells the tale

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=201&feed=reu§ion=news≠ws_id=reu-n30356291&date=20030130&alias=/alias/money/cm/nwHEADLINE: War risk and the dollar, where does it go from here?

NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Just how much of the dollar's precipitous decline can be blamed on the risk of war with Iraq, and how much -- and for how long -- can the greenback be expected to rise once the crisis is resolved?

The dollar has fallen more than 7 percent against the euro and the traditionally safe-haven Swiss franc just since early December, for a loss of 20 percent in the last year.

"There is no doubt that the dollar is in a bear trend, but the latest big move was more politics than economics," said David Bloom, currency strategist at HSBC in London.

...If there is a war, and it is short, or if the crisis is somehow averted by diplomatic means, history suggests that the dollar would bounce quickly. ...Few expect the dollar to stage the type of sustained rally it did in 1991, however.

...Merrill Lynch has been making the case that only a small portion of the dollar's decline has been due to war risk and that most was the result of shifting relative growth fundamentals between Europe and the United States.

-------(see article at url)-----

The article also reports that despite "widespread expectations of a dollar bounce" dealers admit it is difficult to position themselves for "even such a well-anticipated move ... it would be virtually impossible to pick the time when the crisis had reached a turning point".

"It's too hard to predict when something like that will happen, while it's easier to predict an escalation in tension," and therefore stay short dollars, said David Gilmore, partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics.

Bloom is quoted, "We are in a multi-year bear market right now for the dollar."

TownCrier

(01/30/2003; 12:50:56 MDT - Msg ID: 96285)

From India

http://www.business-standard.com/today/story.asp?Menu=24&story=7007(article excerpts) RBI deputy governor, SS Tarapore, in his keynote speech at the London Bullion Market Association�Indian Bullion Market Development Forum.

Customs levy of Rs 250 per gram needs to be removed. Gold needs to be treated like dollar, yen or sterling, not like other metals.

Total freeing of gold import-export trade and abolition of import duty on gold was a pre-condition for meaningful capital account convertibility, he added.

Mr Gresham

(01/30/2003; 13:34:28 MDT - Msg ID: 96286)

Blatant Anti-War Propaganda! OT?

http://www.msnbc.com/news/859747.asp?vts=013020031210Or, Why is plain Common Sense unattainable as a basic starting point for national policy?

Or, on a personal note, why you'll be LUCKY to be living in a poor, (U.S.) "peasant" village scraping vegetables out of the ground when you're 75.

"When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail."

Ooops, too much coffee, again...where'd I put those sedatives? (Not.) [Vent Mode OFF]

Black Blade

(01/30/2003; 13:36:37 MDT - Msg ID: 96287)

Into The Abyss! - I Smell Fear!

The sell off in the equities markets is accelerating with the DOW now in sub 8,000 territory down �160, Nasdaq off -32, and the S&P 500 sinking -20. And we still have another 30 minutes to go. I also notice that JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, CIBC, and others have downgrades on gold producers. Considering the huge short institutional positions on gold shares ya don't suppose that this is an act of desperation in light of today's rocket rebound in the Gold pits do ya? Hmmm� "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Waverider

(01/30/2003; 14:20:38 MDT - Msg ID: 96288)

DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlAnother excellent DMR...

BTW - I see POG is up on the NY Access market. Also, AOL Time Warner, the world's biggest media company, is off 15 percent following a $98.7 billion loss for 2002, the largest loss in U.S. history.

Boy Black Blade, you don't kid around when you say things are getting interesting!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/30/2003; 14:22:43 MDT - Msg ID: 96289)

A reminder, gentlemen! The Super Bowl is over and Valentine's Day is nearly upon us.

http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html

This Valentine's Day Give the Gift of Gold

Omega Necklaces & Accessories

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Diamond Slides to accessorize your favorite Omega necklace.

Bangle Bracelets in plain style or with beautiful diamond cut engraving!

When you call, Marie can also tell you about items featuring birthstones along with many other great gift ideas!1-800-869-5115 ext.106

Purchase from USAGOLD by Friday, February 7th for Valentine's Day delivery and avoid those high jewelry store markups and sales taxes!

Black Blade

(01/30/2003; 14:26:59 MDT - Msg ID: 96290)

Spots Got Rabies!!!

He just jumped over $371 level and still going! The NY access price is soaring as funds apparently are looking for more gains after failing to drop kick spot through $363. Looks to get very "Interesting" as now the shorts get sheared.

- Black Blade

Hipplebeck

(01/30/2003; 14:40:55 MDT - Msg ID: 96291)

kagalaska

next time you quote me, please be accurate.

spook69

(01/30/2003; 14:50:22 MDT - Msg ID: 96292)

These numbers speak Volumes

I'm sure most of you have probably already checked over the market closing data and seen this. For those that haven't; NYSE Advancers vol: .35bil, Decliners: 1.39bil.

To me, a nasty picture for sure. Thoughts from this great group?

Hipplebeck

(01/30/2003; 14:53:31 MDT - Msg ID: 96293)

kagalaska

After some thought, I guess you are right that one can get and be rich without any one else.
It's just that usually people who get rich do so with the help of employees and customers.
Sorry I said only through the hard work of the others.

Golden Bear

(01/30/2003; 15:09:45 MDT - Msg ID: 96294)

spook69 (msg#: 96292)

Hi spook69,

you have more than likely seen the medium term top in the market this morning, and the sell off will continue dramatically over the next few weeks.

Overhead resistance was extremely strong today, and stopped the early advance dead in its tracks.

It looks as if the path of least resistance is definitely down.

Cheers.

Black Blade

(01/30/2003; 15:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 96295)

Spot Still Higher

Looks like Spot raided Kitty's stash of catnip and just can't settle down. Now at $371.50 in after hours.

Spook69 - There was little buying interest outta the gate on Wall Street today. The dismal economic data caught most players by surprise (see the DMR). Selling interest just accelerated toward the close of trade (and continues in after hours). More lay offs were announced with 4,000 "bones" from DOW Chemical and 1,000 more from Coca Cola (among many others too many to list here now). The economy is stalling out as reflected in the GDP data and that could easily be revised downward (it almost always is so it could actually be negative). The current account deficit is climbing again and so on and so on.... This has not gone unnoticed by would be stock buyers.

I was just talking to an old client and he tells me that it looks "grim" and he may have to "let his people go" and work all by his self on a project in the energy patch (even with higher prices). This is a common theme in the industry that petroleum production will continue to decline for the foreseeable future resulting in higher prices.

Meanwhile former stock investors are watching hard assets increase while their shares are flailing. The next wave is coming for precious metals and I look for a lot of shell shocked faces on CNBC and CNNfn.

- Black Blade

Off to the gym (after I finish this cup of Mate)

TownCrier

(01/30/2003; 15:57:19 MDT - Msg ID: 96296)

Free float to get a fair chance?

http://news.nasdaq.com/news/newsStory.aspx?&cpath=20030130\ACQDJON200301301550DOWJONESDJONLINE000982.htmHEADLINE: Snow Says He'll Oppose Currency Market Manipulation

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--John W. Snow, the nominee for Treasury Secretary, pledged Thursday to tell other nations not to manipulate currency markets.

"I favor reliance on open exchange markets and think that the trading system of the world is best placed by having currencies that reflect their inherent value," Snow replied.

[When] asked about his thoughts on the current value of the U.S. dollar:
"The value of the dollar has a variety of impacts on the U.S. economy," Snow replied. "The most effective support for American workers and businesses is sustained strong growth in the U.S. and global economies. ...If confirmed, I will stress the need for stronger growth in my discussions with officials in other countries."

----(find article at url)----

Fundamentally, looks like a pitch for letting the dollar slide. Act now to protect your purchasing power with gold diversification.

R.

silvercollector

(01/30/2003; 16:37:02 MDT - Msg ID: 96297)

Wowsers!!

....as Gandy would say.

Just got home and what a wild ride, a couple dimes short of $372.

Let 'rip 'em' a new one tonight boys!!

R Powell

(01/30/2003; 18:10:10 MDT - Msg ID: 96298)

John W. Snow

Town Crier just reported that Snow is in favor of "strong economic growth in the U.S. and global economies." I had thought that Mr. Snow has already stated that he is in favor of a strong dollar. This surprised me as I connected O'Neill's removal with a policy change to let the dollar soften.
O'Neill was a guest of Mark Haines this morning on the peoples stock market picking television channel but too many questions and too many interruptions resulted in too little time for O'Neill to formulate much for answers. His frustration was evident and even verbalised when he stated that he could answer if left uninterrupted and given enough time. He mentioned about one half hour. I agree. It's a shame that when CNBC does get someone willing to share some real knowledge, their programing does not allow it.
I was hoping the past strong dollar policy would be mentioned, it was not. I once heard Nixon answer a question by demanding time for the background information necessary to understand the answer. He then proceeded to deliver a 10-20 minute long essay, off the cuff, leading to the answer. It was so extensive that he had to announce and repeat the question to the audience when he reached the point of answering it. I was amazed. No, he had no knowledge of the question beforehand and it was a three part question. Maybe O'Neill will get a chance to speak somewhere else. I'll listen. He no longer is restrained from deviating from any party line so he can exercise his right of free speech. I'd love to ask him about gold.
Rich

TownCrier

(01/30/2003; 18:24:09 MDT - Msg ID: 96299)

Swimming in a sea of digits, paper

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030130/economy_fed_moneysupply_1.htmlHEADLINE: U.S. M-2 money supply up $27.0 billion

According the this weekly report from the Fed for the week ended January 20th:

M-1 is up 18.7 billion dollars ($1.21 trillion)

M-2 is up 27.0 billion dollars (at $5.83 trillion)

M-3 is up 31.7 billion dollars (at $8.50 trillion)

-----(summary at url)-------

Don't let your purchasing power be swept away. Anchor your wealth with gold -- a real asset that is rock solid.

R.

Maverick1

(01/30/2003; 18:24:13 MDT - Msg ID: 96300)

@R.Powell

I agree with you take on Nixon. I saw an old interview he had with Frost some years after his resignation. He carried himself well and never rambled. He excelled at foreign policy in my view.

TownCrier

(01/30/2003; 18:32:31 MDT - Msg ID: 96301)

May those with gold-shorting interests move market while China rests?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030130/markets_hongkong_holidays_2.htmlHONG KONG, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Hong Kong's gold, money and stock markets will be closed on Friday and Monday for the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays and reopen on Tuesday, February 4.

-----------------

Posted for anyone who likes to see the various pieces of the big picture in black and white (in print with a Reuters tag).

R.

segel_flieger

(01/30/2003; 19:37:11 MDT - Msg ID: 96302)

Thoughts on recent performance of shares relative to the metal

I'm not sure what to make of Jim Sinclair's explanation for the lagging performance of the Gold shares relative to the metal, but a few thoughts come to mind that I thought were worth sharing.

I can't agree with the contention made here earlier, that hedge or spread trades only make sense when the components are expected to move in opposite directions. There are a myriad of examples of spreads where both sides are moving in the same direction. What matters to someone looking to profit from a spread trade, is the relative performance of the two sides, as compared to what is considered "normal" based on fundamental considerations or sometimes historical behavior. When things "get out of whack", and there is an expectation as to what is "normal", the opportunity to profit from a spread appears.

An example that everyone should recognize is "program trading" or "index arbitrage" in the stock market (buy/sell index futures, and sell/buy the stocks of the index). There are also many examples in physical commodity markets. The crack spread from the energy complex (buy/sell 5 crude contracts, and sell/buy 3 gasoline and 2 heating oil contracts) is a common one. The crush spread from the soybean complex is another (buy/sell soybeans, sell/buy bean meal and bean oil contracts, don't remember the ratios at the moment).

Some traders like spreads because they "look" less risky than holding just one long/short side of the spread position. This is very often true, but when things go wrong, they can go wrong big time!!! When both sides of a spread go against you, your exposure is *twice* that of holding just one side. This can and does happen. One event that comes to mind was the 1988? 89? Feruzzi scandal in the Soybean market (a bit of Deja Vu as they were attempting to manipulate, corner the market). Many traders on the wrong side of the old/new crop spreads were absolutely and completely ruined. I'd have to say, a similar fate may await anyone who has put on the spread that Sinclair described.

I can't say I find anything wrong with Jim's argument. However, I am quite puzzled by his contention that it is the intl hedge funds who are behind it. These folks are generally sophisticated, and known for not taking on unnecessary risk (most of the time :^), while this looks at best like a very dicey trade to me. This spread just doesn't seem (IMHO) like the handy work of somebody looking to make some low risk better than average return via a sophisticated transaction (e.g. hedge fund). The spread does make perfect sense from the perspective of someone who's goal is to hold back the gold *shares* at the expense of allowing the physical metal to run. Who could that be? I'll let the reader fill in the blanks there... The short sell the gold shares side would have the desired effect, while the buy physical gold side would reduce the risk (as compared to only shorting shares). On the other hand, Sinclair is a well connected professional, so he just may be right on?

Chris Powell

(01/30/2003; 20:23:15 MDT - Msg ID: 96303)

Best fund manager in the world says GATA is right

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1408World's most successful fund manager endorses
GATA and says Morgan Chase is at the center
of gold price manipulation.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

sector

(01/30/2003; 21:17:26 MDT - Msg ID: 96304)

Is The Strong Dollar Dead?

The Frozen Rope Tells AllFrom Dec 3rd 2002 �til today the PM Fix has moved upwards within a tight range equal to a regression R^2 value of .9194. That is geek speek for a frozen rope upwards. One would have to go waaay back to the bad old Doldrum Days post 1997 to find less variation...and one may not find a similar up ramp for 53 days at .9194 R^2 anywhere in the last 15 years. It's almost as if the controllers [Fed or Euro longs] have been given an incentive to keep the price on a line up. Government clerks.

Think about it, if you were the crafty Fed and wanted to suck fools into another trap before you hammered gold back down to $275 [As the gravey-stained Lehman bozos claim], you would at least TRY to make the up ramp look normal and add some bumps. But there are no bumps...just a straight line. A kind of inverted glide path up, to where safety is higher.

The SECTREAS and his Strong Dollar side-kick Lindsay were fired in anger on Dec 5th 2002. Thereafter, we have the Frozen Rope both in the Major Currency Dollar Index [Down] and the PM Fix [Up]. All the while, the Euro index Value of Gold is as [Flat] as Kansas at 3.15. If gold ran too fast it would get ahead in the Euro as well as the dollar and THAT, the Fed really doesn't want at all. So we see a controlled move in only the dollar denominated gold price�not the Euro denominated gold price.

Are the "European longs" in control? If they ARE in control, they are REALLY sadistic goons and are toying with the Fed by bleeding the price upward EXACTLY along a linear path. No�It looks more and more like the Fed wants the dollar and gold to move smoothly from where it was on Dec 4th to where they want it in the future, somewhere "Up there" �in safer territory.

Why do this? Markets don't move in straight lines with predictable paths. [BTW we will bust $370 next week nice and smooth, settling in the $372-3 range by Friday according to the R^2 predictor, which now sits at a 92% confidence level] The simplest answer is: The powers made a change in policy the week before Dec 4th and decided to let the dollar drop and hence, let the $USD gold price rise. The President's anger tells a story that he wanted more time, but was forced into action by external events. What those events were is a conjecture.

The gold share stuff is noise. The shorts in there are set to get killed. The Frozen Rope upward says so. I don't think there are longs doing this because they would tip their hands by running greedily a bit faster at times then a bit slower. No. We have a ramp up...nice and smooth...right to $630 by the end of the year�

�Unless they let go completely as the war starts and gold runs up very high with "The war" as an excuse. I do not believe that the gold price will fall as the war starts as most of the mainstream gold pundits preach. It may not run higher...just up and up on a smooth money-making option-opportunity ramp.

This thesis rests upon the premise that the major force in today's gold market is the official sector lending and selling of gold, something backed up by lots of hard evidence. They seem to be running very low on the fuel needed to keep capping gold--especially ahead of all the uncertainties of an unpopular war�or worse, the ABSENCE of a war. No oil spoils.

Can you imagine the markets THEN?

(01/30/2003; 22:21:32 MDT - Msg ID: 96305)

371.10 BID

Spot Gold in Asia: 371.10 5 minutes ago

Black Blade

(01/30/2003; 22:21:32 MDT - Msg ID: 96306)

Growth slows to crawl

http://money.cnn.com/2003/01/30/news/economy/gdp/index.htm
Anemic consumer spending sinks broadest measure of U.S. economy; jobless claims jump.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The U.S. economy slowed to a crawl in the fourth quarter of 2002, growing at the weakest pace since the recession of 2001, the government said Thursday. Gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of the world's largest economy, grew at a 0.7 percent rate in the quarter after growing at a 4 percent rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported. Economists, on average, expected GDP growth of 0.9 percent, according to Briefing.com. "The Federal Reserve has talked about the economy being in a soft spot -- well, it's really in a soft spot," said Robert Brusca, chief economist at Native American Securities. Still, the number likely came as a relief to the small number of economists who thought GDP would actually shrink in the quarter, something that hasn't happened since a recession that began in March 2001 and likely ended by early 2002. Separately, the Labor Department said the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose to 397,000 in the week ended Jan. 25 from a revised 383,000 the prior week. Economists, on average, expected 385,000 new claims, according to Briefing.com. Any number at or above 400,000 is generally considered to be indicative of an ailing labor market. "The claims numbers always do strange things at the end of the year," Brusca said. "There was some improvement at the turn of the year, but the story is that claims are gravitating back to the 400,000, where they were for quite while."

Black Blade: The economic data released today is nothing to crow about for sure. GDP "officially" grew 0.7% but that may yet change to a negative number as this data tends to be revised downward. Remember the last revision for the prior year's data was a shocker as it revealed the recession was worse than the primates on Wall Street had expected. Actually the jury is still out whether the recession has ended or not according to the indicators followed by the NBER (the official arbiter of recessions), not the simplistic sole data of the GDP that the intellectually challenged on Wall Street prefer. The unemployment data is disturbing as well. This is yet another set of data that is continually revised showing greater numbers of unemployed, not to mention the dubious standards used and the various and even more dubious statistical filters used to massage the data. Regardless, the data as it is suggests a sick economy in a precarious position on the brink of war in a delicate region of the world, a region that controls the lifeblood of every industrialized economy on the planet. So hang on and grit your teeth as it just may get very "interesting" before long.

(01/30/2003; 22:25:18 MDT - Msg ID: 96307)

371.00 BID

371.00 BID a few minutes ago in Asia

cyberbat

(01/30/2003; 22:30:19 MDT - Msg ID: 96308)

Spot Gold

Gone vertical!!

Black Blade

(01/30/2003; 22:37:19 MDT - Msg ID: 96309)

Betting that the dollar's history repeats itself

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1042491321917&p=1012571727201
Snippit:

Since its turning point in February 2001, the dollar has fallen 26 per cent against the euro. With the US economy set to outpace rival economic blocs next year, it may be tempting to think that the dollar's fall has run its course. Financial history, however, suggests the dollar's downward journey may be far from over. Research by Deutsche Bank of the three most recent reversals in the dollar - the dollar's rise after 1980, its fall after 1985 and its resurgence after 1995 - provides a reminder that turns in the dollar have tended to be big and violent.

On average, the dollar moved by 30 per cent against the German mark in the first year and 12 per cent in the second year. If history repeats itself, this would leave the euro at $1.25 by February 2004. Deutsche's research also showed that dollar moves are seldom just one-year affairs. Since 1972, cycles in the dollar have averaged seven years. According to Fed calculations, a 10 per cent trade-weighted fall in the dollar is needed to produce a fall in the current account deficit of 1 per cent of GDP. To bring the US deficit back to a sustainable level of about 3 per cent of GDP from the current 5 per cent of GDP may require a 20 per cent trade-weighted fall. For eurozone investors, there is now a compelling reason to hedge the currency risk on US assets. Over the past 12 months a European investor who had failed to hedge currency risk would have lost 38 per cent on the S&P 500, compared with a loss of just 24 per cent for a US investor.

Black Blade: As I pointed out before, the US dollar is overvalued by at least 20%. The implications for Gold are obvious. While the primates dwell on the impending war as the reason for Gold's rise against the dollar, it is actually an overvalued dollar story. Also, the economic train wreck will more than likely mean much greater gains in precious metals going forward and a much greater weakening in the dollar. A simple truism of "good money driving out bad". "Interesting Times"

ElGordo

(01/30/2003; 22:55:51 MDT - Msg ID: 96310)

Tom Calandra article: "Rush to the Exits?"

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4876D478%2D996C%2D423D%2D94C0%2D566DC85D611E%7D&siteid=mktwHow small stocks trade says a lot about investors' hopes and fears. During good times, small companies represent all that is hopeful about an expanding economy. During bad times, they do their Jekyll & Hyde act, becoming ravaged as disgusted investors flee the small-company landscape.

The gap between the two is now closing, but it's the way the spread between big and small is closing that most interests Peter Kendall at Elliott Wave International. The shifting gains and losses of the U.S. market's smallest stocks are pointing to a likely rush to the exits by individual investors, Kendall said Thursday.
________________
Scary article.
Got Gold and Silver?

Waverider

(01/30/2003; 23:03:08 MDT - Msg ID: 96311)

US Dollar Index

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/Summary/Someone (my apologies I can't remember who) recently asked how the US Dollar Index is calculated. I too was curious and found the above link which I'll share. Cheers!

Gandalf the White

(01/30/2003; 23:04:05 MDT - Msg ID: 96312)

KEEP JUMPING, SPOT !! Little jumps are A-OK !!! <;-)

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=1&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=38&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iIAnd we will BITE 'em when COMEX gets into NY's control !
ANOTHER $7 UP move by SPIKE in NY would be just fine with me.
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/30/2003; 23:07:42 MDT - Msg ID: 96313)

Thanks for answering that Question, Lady Waverider !!

Waverider (01/30/03; 23:03:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 96311)
US Dollar Index
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/Summary/
++++
Nice educational find !
You've been working on that PhD Thesis again, Ay?
<;-)

Waverider

(01/30/2003; 23:10:53 MDT - Msg ID: 96314)

Farfel

Thank you for sharing your thoughts and insights on Sinclair's thesis. Your contributions here are greatly appreciated.

BTW - Gandalf - yes, just a quick break to check on Spot'n Spike and company!!

Gandalf the White

(01/30/2003; 23:17:19 MDT - Msg ID: 96315)

WOWSERS !! NICE Jump there SPIKE ! $372 +

Save some of that for the Paper Avalanche in NY Friday aftrnoon !
<;-)

ElGordo

(01/30/2003; 23:18:06 MDT - Msg ID: 96316)

No jobs in "recovery"

Tokyo, Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's unemployment rate rose in December to match a record and household spending fell to its lowest in more than two decades, deepening the 12-year slump in the world's No. 2 economy.

The jobless rate rose to 5.5 percent from 5.3 percent in November, the government's statistics bureau said. Spending by salaried workers fell a seasonally adjusted 6.1 percent in December from November to the lowest since January 1982, a separate report said.
--------
ATLANTA (Reuters) - Coca-Cola Co. KO.N announced on Thursday that it was cutting about 1,000 jobs as a result of merging three of its divisions in North America, the soft drink giant's largest and most important market.

ElGordo

(01/30/2003; 23:27:06 MDT - Msg ID: 96317)

N Korea prepares to make A bombs

NEW YORK (Reuters) - American spy satellites over North Korea have detected what appear to be trucks moving the country's stockpile of nuclear fuel rods out of storage, The New York Times reported on Friday.

Citing U.S. officials, the newspaper said the movement of the 8,000 nuclear fuel rods is prompting fears within President Bush's administration that North Korea is preparing to produce about a half dozen nuclear weapons.

Intelligence analysts have seen activity at the Yongbyon nuclear complex throughout January, the Times said.

The satellites could not see exactly what was being put into the trucks that pulled up to the building housing the storage pond. But analysts concluded it was likely that the rods were being transported to another site, either to get them out of sight, or to move them to a reprocessing plant to convert them into bomb-grade plutonium.

U.S. intelligence analysts have informally concluded that the movement of the rods, combined with other activity that now appears under way at the Yongbyon complex, could allow North Korea to begin producing bomb-grade plutonium by the end of March, the report said.

Several American officials told the Times that there were no indications that the Pentagon was preparing for a preemptive strike against the plant, and said Bush was still focused on reaching a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.

On Thursday, North Korea condemned a speech by Bush in which he called on Pyongyang to halt its nuclear weapons program. This was followed by an appeal from the North Korean envoy in China for international pressure on Washington to enter direct talks with Pyongyang over the nuclear impasse.

Trojan

(01/30/2003; 23:40:10 MDT - Msg ID: 96318)

Jim Calls It :-) Go Gold

Sorry No Link but here it is. I got this in a Email.
It is meant to be shared with the Gold Community.

When Gold Closes Above $371.50
$400 Will Promptly Be Taken Out On The Upside

First Two Weeks of February Have Super Bullish Potential Implications

Well, you have done it.

I hear from my broker friends and off the trading floor that many millions of gold share certificates have been ordered for delivery. It appears as if some of the big investors have had it with the disinformation that has been a tool of the bearish interest.

Disinformation because it has been the short sellers and ratio spreaders who have caused the gold shares to under perform. Then the same traders called attention to that manufactured under-performance as proof that gold has had it at $372 due to technical non-confirmation by the gold shares of the gold move.

Did you notice all the gold share downgrades done recently on gold shares by the major investment banks that are the owners of cartel by common interest gold banks?

Let's see if the under-performance of gold shares case holds over the next few days. I doubt it. It looks to me as if gold and gold shares and silver changed their personality today.

I hear there are some very uncomfortable shorts out there. Guess what their only defense is now since they have shorted well over the average daily trading volume of the listed gold shares?

They are also short gold and silver juniors which I think is total lunacy. Their only defense is to buy gold to offset the short in the shares. When gold closes over $371.50, the shorts in gold shares will be screaming into gold for protection and if they can will be screaming out of their short of gold share and silver share positions.

Gold is headed over $400 now, IMO.

I believe that I know exactly where it is going and will post to the community, individually, on my web site registration for emails after thoroughly combing the list for ringers.

I will not post the price on my web site. Each member that gets the post should inform those people they know, but not post it on the web. I told you I am good, but not that good.

We are being watched by the opposition and the 1/3 sell point now after we held tight at $324.50 & $330 & $354.50 belongs to us. It is your property in my mind.

I want it for you and I am going to do everything I can to get it for you.

Go to www.tanrange.com and register for the email list which now is my private email list since it is automated registry.

There will be no company promotion coming to you. You have my word on that. Soon I will be up on www.JSMineset.com where you will get 24-hour commentary from me since so many of our community are in different parts of the planet.

Those that are trading gold may want to have an account that can trade gold 24 hours a day as I do. I want to be of service to you all. Your success is my reward. I want this for you more than I want it for me.

We have waited 22 years for this. I can get all the sleep I need after gold is remonetized. During the last great gold market I never slept more than 4 hours a night.

I didn't want to miss anything. This is my life and outside of this and my family, I neither have nor want anything else. I truly love markets and gold is my thing. I will soon post the advertisement for and press comment of the first Gold seminar that was sponsored by Harry Schultz when gold was at $68 per ounce under "War Stories."

End Of Message

Trojan: Thank You, Mr Sinclair.

timbervision

(01/31/2003; 00:01:17 MDT - Msg ID: 96319)

miner49er, Belgian, Aristotle

Sirs, could the short position taken by some big interests in gold mines arise because they know how close we are to the remonitizing of gold? If the mines won't/can't participate in this cataclysmic event, say because they become nationalized, could this explain their failure to rise as gold has climbed?

Thanks

timbervision

(01/31/2003; 00:05:12 MDT - Msg ID: 96320)

follow-up question

Could a short squeeze on the mining stocks trigger the gold remonitization? Can gold actually ever be at 400 again?

GoldnSilver2002

(01/31/2003; 00:05:28 MDT - Msg ID: 96321)

The sea never tires

Soon we will see the rats jumping ship.This is lord of the rings 2 in reverse.The bad guys are in their castle,now battle weary.As they look out onto the plains they see endless rows of warriors with many weapons.They keep coming and coming like ants.In the background one evil general bemoans,"We just hit and hit em and they keep coming,what will we do when the giant army of the east comes to besiege us too on feb 8th?""Green wizard use your magic and make them stop!"To which the old green wizard replied:"You fool it was all smoke and mirrors and im long gold too!"

Black Blade

(01/31/2003; 01:59:34 MDT - Msg ID: 96323)

Euro Markets Awash In Red

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Euro markets are taking a hit in the early going. Meanwhile Gold is holding above $371 an ounce (even in London).

- Black Blade

Belgian

(01/31/2003; 02:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 96324)

@ Timbervision : goldmines

Could write a book, as an answer to your question...but let me simply reply with my strict, personal (FWIW) view on Gold and goldmines :
It was A/FOA and they alone, who sounded the possible alarm on the *future* of the goldmines. And believe me, Sir...this was and still is "shocking" for Belgian goldmine-bugs par excellence. Brussels mini-stockmarket has, traditionally, been a mekka for South African goldmines for already more than 25 years now !

Any goldmine, anywhere in the world, becomes a complete new enterprise, with substantial, prolonged changes in POG.
And herin lies the *possible* answer to your question.

As long as paper-gold is King, goldmines will be "mastered" by the gold-oligarchy (club).

But I do believe that the Gold-Affair has changed dramatically. So I left the goldmine playing field and metamorphosed into a Gold-Advocate with Physical in Possession. I do believe in Gold's gigantic "REVALUATION".
Goldmines of the past will alter into very strategic Wealth providers with utmost importance. Gold as the "conclusion" of all Wealth. Commodity gold goes Gold Wealth. The mines will have to function as providers of the ultimate "RESERVE ASSET" ! That's a complete NEW business !

I am not going to wait up until this might become a "fait accompli" (accomplished fact), overnight.
Regardless of all those out there who have LOL with these Gold Revaluation projections.

I don't know what the deep reasons are for the present (temporary-?) "strange" behavior of the mines ! And I honestly don't care about it anymore. Oefff, what a relief.
But as soon as a goldmine becomes comfortably profitable with the reigning POG...their mining-policy changes in function of that POG : They want to mine as little as possible...shift to lower ore-grades and try to preserve as much reserves as they can, extending the mine's lifetime.
POG at 400$ or 800$ will make very little difference in their nominal profits. But that's only part of the whole story.

Look at your mine(s) as 1/ a commodity digger and as 2/ a Wealth Reserve Asset, provider. Two complete different views. Paper-gold versus Physical-Gold !

Make your choice, fellow Gold Knight ! The best of luck to you.

Topaz

(01/31/2003; 04:07:00 MDT - Msg ID: 96325)

Papergold.

...further to Belgians excellent observations below, was there EVER a better example of the status of PoG than yesterdays price action?
The instant the Dollar began strengthening PoG dropped ...and recovered with the retreating $. It's a Paper Currency people, that's what they do!
Don't expect too much action from PoG outside a currency range until the pricing mech is overhauled.
The way this is shaping, there will only be the $ and Papergold left in the arena shortly. A brilliant job of exporting deflation (taming the Yield swings) is creating BIG problems OS... watch the Bond Yield swings in Bund/Gilt on a Downmarket day) compared to the now comatose T's. PaperGold is the perfect vehicle to manage the Dollar, NOT to attach your hopes to.

mas

(01/31/2003; 04:19:45 MDT - Msg ID: 96326)

Euro/Gold Price

Now sitting @ 341+/-, Euro/Dollar @ 1.081. Would someone tell us who prices the Euro/Gold price and how this works? Is it just a straight exchange rate calculation cause it doesn't act like it.
I think this will break out soon (today?), diversion even in paper gold pricing!
Got Gold/Mas

Topaz

(01/31/2003; 04:25:48 MDT - Msg ID: 96327)

...whatsmore,

one could say that Metalgold is "totally irrelevant" in this Papergold currency arena....and vice-versa! Be extrathoughtful when bedding down your particular Gold mindset.

mas

(01/31/2003; 04:31:59 MDT - Msg ID: 96328)

Sir sector @ 96304

I really like your take on this one. Do you see the separation coming? Your first part of the point strikes me the most, somethings up. Goons maybe, sadistic why?. In control, hmmmm. Looks like it.
Quote,
Are the "European longs" in control? If they ARE in control, they are REALLY sadistic goons and are toying with the Fed by bleeding the price upward EXACTLY along a linear path. No�It looks more and more like the Fed wants the dollar and gold to move smoothly from where it was on Dec 4th to where they want it in the future, somewhere "Up there" �in safer territory.
Unquote,
Got Gold/Mas?

ElGordo

(01/31/2003; 04:32:54 MDT - Msg ID: 96329)

French pension system a disaster

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex&box=ad_box_all&tag=worldnews∣dle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APjo3BRQ9RnJhbmNlPension contributions are set to fall short of claims as early as 2005, largely because of a rising number of retiring public workers. Without change, the state's pension fund will be running an annual deficit of about 82 billion euros ($89 billion) in 40 years, the government says.

`Time Bomb'

``It's a time bomb,'' said Andrew Burns, an economic policy specialist for France at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. ``Everybody has to make a contribution.''

As is the case in other European countries, France's pay-as- you-go system, which finances pensions out of current tax payments, is coming under strain as people live longer and birth rates fall. In 40 years, retirees will account for a third of the French population, up from a fifth today.

To draw a full pension, state employees need only make contributions for 37 1/2 years. Their pension is based on their pay in the last six months of their working life.

Belgian

(01/31/2003; 04:37:00 MDT - Msg ID: 96330)

The euro and Gold....

The ageing dollar is still "entangled" in Gold valuation shemes and politics. Gold must become a world class RESERVE ASSET, that is *NOT* tied directly to any official money system ( in contrast with J.S. views). Gold must trade "next to the currencies" and Valued as a REAL WEALTH - RESERVE ASSET ! A "price-discovery-process" is running.

The $ and � run out of their "buying time" shemes, from the past 20 years. Time for Dollar-support and euro's re-creation of a new reserve-currency. Today it is Gold-Action.

The euro, as candidate new reserve-currency, is subjected to a whole group of """diverse""" nations of """conflicting""" political wills. In this format, no one country can call the shots for the world !!!
In addition, take away the need to compete with Gold. Let Gold be a ***SUPPORTING*** reserve asset, that trades in a Free market, ***unlent*** and ***non-monetary*** so as to circumvent its ***manipulation*** !!!

This time "without" the *illusion* of Gold-backing and its discipline ! As such, a Free market for Gold, will on an ongoing basis, constantly devalue any and all currencies of the world...as the world's stock markets discount the inflation of their local currencies.

The US$ has already proven that it could not be trusted with any form of Gold-currency. In sharp contrast with Euroland's Gold traditions.
OIL and EMU (complementary) want to keep Gold as a reserve-asset and NOT as a money-asset. Gold must be maneuvered outside the "money-system".

Can the US + dollar "remove" OIL from its eurosystem-supportive relationship ??? That's what is attempted NOW !
Thoughts ?

Farfel

(01/31/2003; 04:40:43 MDT - Msg ID: 96331)

Sinclair Revisited Again (A Corollary)

I only wish to underscore one thing since I received a hostile email concerning my critique of the Sinclair thesis re: the hedge funds and their' "long gold...short gold stocks" strategy.

I never stated that that there are no hedge funds utilizing that strategy. Knowing how so many commercial players adopted the gold carry trade (a system of financial manipulation unintentionally designed to sow the seeds of its own destruction), I have absolutely no doubt that there are a variety of hedge funds utilizing the ill-considered gold hedge strategy so articulately outlined by Sinclair.

However, my only point is this: a "long gold...short gold stocks" strategy, although designed to capitalize on short players perceptions of overvaluation in the gold stocks vis a vis gold bullion, is a strategy comprised of potentially "infinite" risk.

Reason: there reaches a point where the disequilibrium in gold stocks relative to gold bullion's valuation inevitably attracts hostile bidders for the undervalued gold reserves owned by the gold miners.
"Infinite" risk is represented by the unknown variable, specifically the offering price an acquisitor will make in attempting to purchase the undervalued gold reserves of the miner target. It can be a 25% premium, 30%, 50%, 70%, etc. depending upon factors such as due diligence, the degree of risk , and the time horizon as determined by the acquisitor. If the premium exceeds the short players' expectations, then it is conceivable a hostile bid can blow the price right past the stops initiated by the short to protect his position.

Finally, the other notable risk factor in a "long gold...short gold stocks" strategy is this: the calculations that go into such a bet assume a fixed and logical ratio between gold and gold stocks for the purposes of determining relative valuations.

However, as I have posited in the past, the gold market is slowly and surely imitating the internet sector of the late Nineties. By that, I mean that gold stock values will soon be determined largely by the degree of flight to safety inflows pouring into the sector, NOT by old fundamental measures.

Be prepared to toss away the old historical pe ratios of the gold sector...and virtually every other fundamental standard/ratio long championed by gold analysts.

Instead, watch in amazement as gold stocks revalue to levels far exceeding all historical measures because, in a perfect financial storm, there can be no better flight to safety sector than precious metals...and they will absorb tremendous inflows from liquidations in bonds, stocks, and real estate such that all old standards for determining proper valuations in the gold sector will need to be thrown away.

In other words, a "New Paradigm" for gold stocks is in the making...and the only successful gold analysts will be those who can explain and rationalize the hyper-verticality coming to the sector.

Just as the "New Paradigm" for tech stocks
trumpeted the catchphrase "INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY" to rationalize bubble valuations in the tech sector, the approaching gold-mania will likely prioritize and promote the concept of "money supply vs. gold price" as a means of justifying sky high gold stock valuations never thought possible by the old school gold analysts.

The bottom line is this: it is imperative for gold stock analysts to begin the process of reinventing the measurement tools for the coming verticality in gold and gold stocks. Otherwise, without doing so, they will remain vulnerable to gold short attacks by those critics all to happy to point toward the Old Paradigm tools for valuing all things gold.

In order for gold to sustain its approaching strong uptrend, the entire sector must undergo a "cultural revolution" that acknowledges that things are about to change radically in terms of gold/gold stock valuations.

The leaders of the gold world must promote these new measurement tools to Wall Street and the financial media... or else the bullion bank adversaries will happily continue to advertise the old standards and ratios as a means of capping gold and gold stock prices.

For those gold investors who are wary of reinventing the
measures for proper gold/gold stock valuations, just remember that Wall Street had no qualms whatsoever in "re-inventing the paradigm" for the purposes of sustaining a parabolic move in tech stocks for years.

Unless gold investors do likewise, their investments will remain subjugated to the negative manipulations of the anti-gold Wall Street Establishment.

It is up to the Sinclairs, Hathaways, Howes, etc. of the gold world to devise and promote the defenses necessary to allow gold/gold stocks to break free of the "intellecutal shackles" its adversaries so happily utilize in restraining them.

That is why I wrote an essay at Gold-Eagle some time ago in which I advocated the creation of an annual think-tank (symposium) comprised of all the major intellects and industry leaders in the world of gold. Ideally, a major respected figure in the industry (like Rob McEwen of Goldcorp) should organize the event.
Such a think-tank would be similar in its approach to the Allen & Co. annual gathering for the major techies of the world.

Within a decompressed, wilderness environment, the
great gold minds could recline in comfort and conceive "castles in the air" toward the creation of a "New Paradigm" for gold that would withstand the attacks and challenges of its opponents.

In my mind, there has never been a better time to devise such an event in order to circle the wagons against the impending furious attack certain to visit the gold sector should it outperform this year once again.

If the preceding essay resonates with you to any extent, please send a copy to:

info@goldcorp.com
ATT: Mr. Rob McEwen

Topaz

(01/31/2003; 05:24:48 MDT - Msg ID: 96332)

Pit-bull and Poodle...@ Belgian.

Your Gold/Euro is surely copping a shellacing at the hands of the papergold/dollar at present B, but time and necessity are on your side.
Ari pointed out the NEED, from a Western perspective to retain a Fiat based debt currency regime and when, "WHEN" the dollar fails, the Euro stands ready to fill the void.
I sincerely hope it can hang tough until then.

ElGordo

(01/31/2003; 06:04:19 MDT - Msg ID: 96333)

Trend to continue

White Hills

(01/31/2003; 06:26:25 MDT - Msg ID: 96335)

Anglogold

Caught an interview on CNNfn this morning of Bobby Godsell of Anglogold. He states that he is very bullish on gold and that Anglogold is 20% hedged.However, inresponse to questions about why the price ofgold is going up he mentions that 80% of gold sales are for jewelery and that low production and Gold ore deposits running out contributing to price increases. No mention of the $dollar going down or any monetary reason for the increase in Gold. He may be bullish but he is sticking to the same old song. White Hills

ElGordo

(01/31/2003; 06:27:59 MDT - Msg ID: 96336)

Germany main supply source for Iraq

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2712903.stmLast December, Tageszeitung newspaper reported that over 80 German companies were listed in Iraq's weapons report to the UN.

Several of these were still involved in Iraq last year, thereby breaking the UN weapons embargo.

Of further embarrassment to Germany is that - according to the newspaper article - German companies make up more than half of the total number of institutions listed in the report.
_____________
Happy New Year to you!

ElGordo

(01/31/2003; 06:44:49 MDT - Msg ID: 96337)

Disney results lift futures?

Net income in Disney's first fiscal quarter, ended Dec. 31, dropped 42 percent, to $256 million, or 13 cents a share, compared with $438 million, or 21 cents a share, in the period a year earlier"

Chicago, Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- United Airlines parent UAL Corp., the world's second-largest airline company, said its fourth- quarter loss widened to $1.5 billion as the carrier failed to bring costs in line with lower revenue.

Morristown, New Jersey, Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Honeywell International Inc., the biggest maker of cockpit electronics and automated controls, had a fourth-quarter loss of $1.47 billion.

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Dynegy Inc. DYN.N on Friday reported a wider fourth-quarter net loss on lower revenue.

The Houston company reported a net loss of $341 million, or $1.15 a share.
___________
Disney results are terrible. The news coverage is nuts.
It must be some form of stockholm syndrome.

Felix the Cat

(01/31/2003; 06:50:10 MDT - Msg ID: 96338)

"Gung Hei Faat Choi"

A personal review of myself at last year, so many events attacked and changed my life. Some of the principles of my POV should have to change. However those are really special experiences for me...

Ting-ting-ting....Ladies and Gentlemen, I'm going to make an announcement:

I LOVE AND NEED YOU ALLS --- MY FRIENDS!!!
HAPPY GOAT YEAR AND BEST WISHES TO YOU ALLS

CHEER!
F. C

ElGordo

(01/31/2003; 07:06:33 MDT - Msg ID: 96339)

What a merck up!

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A Louisiana doctor has filed a whistle-blower suit against Merck & Co. Inc., claiming the drugmaker fraudulently overcharged Medicare for its ulcer medication Pepcid, the New Orleans-based Times-Picayune newspaper reported.

William St. John LaCorte also claims that while Merck was overcharging Medicare for Pepcid it was also selling it to hospitals at a deep discount, the newspaper reported in its Thursday edition. Under U.S. laws, whistle-blower plaintiffs in effect sue on behalf of taxpayers and can receive a portion of a judgment or settlement.

In the case, which was filed in 1999 but only unsealed recently in U.S. District Court in New Orleans, LaCorte claims Merck induced hospitals to substitute Pepcid for other, cheaper prescription stomach medication, often without the consent of the treating doctor, the article said. Once Medicaid patients were discharged, they continued using Pepcid rather than alternatives, the report said, citing the lawsuit.

Merck called the lawsuit meritless, the newspaper said.

The suit was filed under the False Claims Act, and was kept under seal while the federal government looked into the allegations. Court records show the government has said it is still investigating the matter and has not decided whether to intervene in the case, the report said.

LaCorte's lawsuit seeks to force Merck to make full restitution of alleged overpayments by Medicaid. He says the drug maker sold Pepcid to hospitals for 10 cents a pill but charged the government $1.65 per dose through Medicare, the article said.
________
I mean mark up.

Zhisheng

(01/31/2003; 07:30:20 MDT - Msg ID: 96340)

Zhu nimen xin nian kuai le!

May you all have a happy lunar new year!

Felix: Gong xi, gong xi.

Belgian

(01/31/2003; 07:33:17 MDT - Msg ID: 96341)

Re :

White Hills : Gold-miners and all other paperists will never talk about their product, Gold, as a Wealth Reserve-Asset.
For the simple reason that, the day Gold will be re-installed as The Wealth without a country...the gold-paperists had their last word, said ! And that's not funny when you are in the paper-gold business for so long.

Topaz : The dollar "already" failed long ago. Not once, twice...but for ever ! And very cleverly seen from you...the euro simply waits for its invitation to take over as a reserve currency, instead of forcing its way to it ! Very clever, indeed Topaz.

El Gordo : Euroland's pensioners...an endangered specy ! Right on the nail Sir (demographics). Those savers urgently need Gold-Guidance ! Those old horses will be brought to the Gold-source. And drink they will !
BTW (as an aside): Iraqi opposition commando's are (not so) secretly trained in Hungary, by the US army. Public news today. Hungary (non EMU) is one (out of eight) of the underwriters of the US-support letter.
(divide and rule). Yes Germany (Degussa) delivered the Ultra-Centrifuge for uranium enrichment to Iraq ! This happened when Israel got his nuclear tech. from the US. Geo-politics...> currency-wars...> oil-wars >>> GOLD !

21mabry

(01/31/2003; 07:49:03 MDT - Msg ID: 96342)

(No Subject)

i am working on my masters degree,at a good sized university in a good sized city.i have taken economics courses and haved tried to get the instructor to discuss gold in depth they cant or wont.all you get from them is it has no place in todays world,all the teach is keynes,anything other than that is treated as ancient history that has no place in todays world.in my history and poly sci classes i try to discuss the role the money elite have played in history and politics.for example i asked my russian history prof. who is from russia he seems a good man,but i ask about the incident were the canadians caught trotsky and us govt. ordered him released.i ask about lenin going into russia with 50 million in gold given to him by rich capitalist,i ask why would rich capitalist fund a man who leads a group that wants to destroy everything capatalism standsfor they have no answers and they look at me like they want to say,just accept what the book saysdont question it.i have come to the point were i am questioning everything.its starting to look like we have been treated like children who are told fairy tale stories and then put to sleep. these are just my observations

makcumka

(01/31/2003; 08:21:05 MDT - Msg ID: 96343)

@21mabry

Unfortunately, the educational system nowadays is not oriented on providing facts and information, in liberal arts classes. It is designed to make you think in a way you are supposed to think to be a "good citizen". It is no different from what I experienced growing up in Russia, but I believe here in the States it is practiced to a much bigger extent. In Russia we were told what to think and say. In USA you are conditioned on what to think and say, so you are granting your consent, to make it look like you are voluntarily accepting the facts you are being fed. IMHO, it goes much deeper than the political science class or an economics class. The entire system of education, starting with the elementary school, is set up to make children feel good about being in school. It has very little to do with educating, i.e. providing Knowledge. Add the political correctness, affirmative action, any other policies that are instilled in children to make everyone equal, equally educated, conditioned, prepared for the "cruel world that's out there". The system takes out individuality and competitiveness, imho. And when the teachers are faced with questions that you are not supposed to ask, they don't know how to react.

Keep asking those questions that do not have answers. Chances are, you won't convince your professors to take up your point of view. BUT! If you get even one of your fellow students to think about gold, it's the start. If they ask you about it and are willing to listen to what you have to say - it's the right direction. And if they buy gold - it's the goal.

(01/31/2003; 08:53:14 MDT - Msg ID: 96344)

21mabry

Being a student does not preclude you from being a leader. Though your professors have paid their dues and should be afforded respect, they are not beyond challenge, and it is your responsibility, not your option, to make your views known. And they should be made known in a structured, defensible format. This is how leaders are born.

Continue with your process of self-education parallel to the formal aspect of your education. There are great thinkers liberal academia won't touch -- much richer in content than the current agenda driven economics curricula at most of the major universities. In your personal education, try to understand a great thinker -- any great thinker -- in totality. For example, don't read one book by Murray Rothbard or Milton Friedman and convince yourself that you understand him. Read three or four of his books and then force yourself to incorporate their thinking with your own.

The real world, you will find, is much different with respect to accepting the point of view you've touched upon. . .much more amenable to your way of thinking (what little of it you have already revealed). The problem with university level economics in a nutshell remains its disconnect from the real world. You seem to be imposing the real world and they seem to be saying "Don't worry about the real world here," I've got this syllabus I need to get through, you're going to be tested on it, so don't yank me off track. Unless things have changed drastically with your professors from when I went to school, many of them will welcome a spirited and good-natured disagreement -- that is unless political correctness and the "track" has completely overtaken academic and intellectual freedom.

Try an old book --"God and Man at Yale" by William F. Buckly -- for moral support -- a man who found a similar situation and stood courageously before academia with a different idea. Given your dilemma, it may serve to inspire.

Good luck, 21mabry. And thanks for bringing your situation here. I think you'll find some discussion on it when you return.

Clink!

(01/31/2003; 09:34:10 MDT - Msg ID: 96345)

@21Mabry

I have sometimes thought that the real benefit of a formal education is not what you are taught per se, but the ideas that are planted in your mind or the discrepancies that you detect between the established cant and what you discover outside the course.

I took a graduate finance course a couple of years ago. An example of the first is the one which I have mentioned before is Lester Thurow's economic tectonic plates which explain why there are sudden financial earthquakes out of nowhere. This idea led me to read other economics texts, which led me to websites such as zealllc, which led me to gold, which led me.....here ! An example of the second is that the prof said that the CPI increase is usually 'arranged' to be a little above the 'real' price increases in order to keep the AARP (the largest membership of any organization in the US) happy. This also led me to more investigation and my current view (along with most people in this forum, I suspect) that it is largely meaningless as an economic indicator.

I would agree with MK that the profs deserve respect because although they may not be correct on all points, they may have significantly more background than the students. I would go on to say that you have to choose your battles. Many people here have mentioned that their acquaintances/friends/family who were laughing at goldbugs a couple of years ago are more receptive to the message now. Similarly, there is no point in challenging your profs now - they will probably see the error of their ways in time.

Lastly, I have to say that I wish I had had the economics course in my undergrad days instead of 25 years later ! So much wasted time.....

Buongiorno!

(01/31/2003; 09:42:22 MDT - Msg ID: 96346)

21mabry

Hooboy! where to start? Thank goodness my economics profs included a strong dose of Austrian School--along with the Keynesian theories --but that was over forty years ago. Hillsdale College has a free monthly bulletin that explores lots of good topics. (www.hillsdale.edu)Perhaps you can work out something with them regarding your education.

Have you considered starting a student discussion group? A note on the b-board, pot of coffee, and some pizza can cause good things to happen.

As a counter to the Keynes stuff, see Human Action, Ludwig von Mises, and anything by Hans Sennholz if I spelled him correctly.

Finally, IMHO, education is not just learning, but a process of learning how to learn. It is a lifelong quest, and I still learn something each day. (Mostly at this website!) thank you for questioning things, and good luck! May your inquiring mind find the stone upon which to sharpen itself! BUONGIORNO!

balzac

(01/31/2003; 09:51:28 MDT - Msg ID: 96347)

TEN DOLLAR RANGE

Would one of you seers of gold kindly explain the $10 range in the
last three days, a look at the K charts almost makes one dizzy.
Are the gold gods weaving a sweater or is it only a scarf.

Balzac

Gandalf the White

(01/31/2003; 09:56:45 MDT - Msg ID: 96348)

Sir Balzac's Question !!!!

balzac (1/31/03; 09:51:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 96347)
===
one word !
MANIPULATION
FREE Gold by taking PHYSICAL to your CASTLE !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(01/31/2003; 10:02:08 MDT - Msg ID: 96349)

"HIGH NOON" in NY !!

OK SPIKE and SPOT --- Let's BITE 'em !!!
<;-)

Max Rabbitz

(01/31/2003; 10:14:11 MDT - Msg ID: 96350)

21Mabry

I went through something similar in the early 80's after an epiphany on socialism. I found and read "God and Man at Yale" and the National Review, Buckley's publication. You should understand that faculty has personal interests that can obscure their pursuit of the truth. They are interested in 1) tenure, 2) higher salary and 3) more grant money. Because money comes largely from government, now more than ever, they tend to have a big government bias. I would be careful in challenging their world view. If they don't mark you down for not repeating the "correct" answers they will get you for not having a caring heart. This was less a problem for me as I was in the hard sciences where political ideology can't score test points. Question them but always show respect. There are many fragile ego's out there.

Gandalf the White

(01/31/2003; 10:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 96351)

Nice LARGE SPOT price chart --- AND yes, it is ENGLISH !!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1<;-)

Clink!

(01/31/2003; 10:44:26 MDT - Msg ID: 96352)

@ Gandalf

Thanks for noticing ! LOL

a nation of one

(01/31/2003; 10:56:47 MDT - Msg ID: 96353)

Response to 21mabry (1/31/03; 07:49:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 96342)

Whatever you do, do not stop questioning things. At some point down the road, all your questions will be answered.

(01/31/2003; 11:18:02 MDT - Msg ID: 96354)

Belgian (msg#: 96330) Can the US + dollar "remove" OIL from its eurosystem-supportive relationship ?

As the events unfold, the geo-politic manoeuvres tend to get more and more military in nature. I have no military experience, however, I have got some knowledge of chess. My interpretation is based on the chess background. Most experts say that there are two different thought processes in chess: Strategic and tactical. In strategic thinking, one envisions a desired position and thinks backwards, investigating whether the desired position can be transformed into the present position. In tactical thinking, one starts with the present position and carefully calculates the consequences, investigating whether one of those end consequences would beneficial. Most chess players do not have a balance between tactical and strategic thinking, and have a bias depending on their personality.

Now, assume that one has got a strategic superiority. Winning the game can still be difficult. In fact, it is said that, winning a won game can be very difficult. Some players, especially those gifted with tactical flair, do not idly wait for the routine strategic execution of the opponent. They open up the game, changing its character into a tactical nature. This means, any piece can capture any other piece, and the possibility of making a calculation error increases. The game is still a won game, however it has to be done tactically. This is very hard work at the chessboard while the clock is ticking�

It looks as though, US have made a strategic error in the management of the finances and the industry (public debt, consumer debt, financial asset/real estate bubble, export of manufacturing industries to Asia). Things go unnoticed until a rival (EU) emerges. Suddenly there is a problem. Economy is bad, and given sufficient time, the nature of the economy would be reflected in the health of the military. Former Soviet Union and the state of its army after 1990 were a living proof of what a deteriorating economy would do to the military might. Therefore, it looks as though they decided to open up the game, changing its nature into a tactical one. I mean, into a military nature.

This implies that Russia and China are now brought into the game. With the US tactically hopping from one region to another (Middle East, Korea, perhaps Taiwan, and ???), they may temporarily a create vacuum in the region they leave. Suppose, US suddenly leaves Europe to chase China, wouldn't that open up possibilities for Russia vis-�-vis Europe and Middle East?

US may remove oil from Eurosystem support, but can the game then be cooled into slow strategic manoeuvring? I doubt it. Something like 30 Years War looks more probable to me. People hitting each other until everyone becomes disgusted of the idea of ruling the world, then they say enough, let us make the Westphalia Treaty of the new millennium. We shall see�

GoldnSilver2002

(01/31/2003; 11:26:09 MDT - Msg ID: 96355)

Dow jones down for the month

Well the Down Jones started jan at 8600 and will end the month well below that.Of course the old saying "as goes jan so goes the year" will be ignored as wall st screams "Dow is up for the week!".I appreciate what Sinclair is doing for Gold,but feel sorry for the miners.The truth is Sinclair is likley right about gold outperforming the miners.If you buy the right stocks you may be up a little bit but most of the mining stocks simply are not very good.Considering the silverado fiasco,and most of the large caps of their june high,we are but days/weeks from a rush from the miners to physical.Manipulation or not,companies like Kinross,hecla show that many miners could care a less about shareholder value by diluting their stocks just as some might be showing a small profit on their huge risk.

IN my mind their may be a very good other reason people are shying off the mining stocks.First reason "Bre -x".Second the mining stocks can lose value quicker than they make it.Third the stocks dont pay dividends.Fourthly'stock dilution starting with the ceo sell off in october.Fifthly,geopolitical concerns.Some of these mines are in countries with dubious backgrounds ie Russia,malaysia
etc.Sixthly,the balance sheets on a lot of these mines are terrible.Seventh:People who bought companies like Kinross in june still have lost money'six long months later.Eighth reason people dont care about reasons(ie manipulation),the bottom line is the bottom line:are these mining stocks going up?

Take it from me,i have physical and some stocks im still trying to sell at break even.When i sell them,ill be very lucky to be able to buy a fraction of the physical i could have with this money.The biggest mistake i made as a goldbug was listening to the hype on mining stocks.I got into them in may,im hoping to break even by next may lol.How good of a job has the fed done on them?My brother after listening to my ranting for 7 months cant wait to get out of bad stocks like Kinross.I feel sorry for good companies like goldcorp,good company crap stock.

My advice:Buy physical and ignore the hype on gold stocks unless you really do your homework and know when to sell,you will lose money on these turkeys.While the stocks goes down and gets shorted the ceos will dilute your shares.
Now i know why Sinclair said physical will outperform the stocks.Am i unhappy with gold stocks well,when i started buying, gold was under 300.Gold is now 365 the stocks have gone nowhere.

Warning to the miners:the big wave may never come,people are tired of losing money.I suggest you do something about your stocks soon or the big rush will be too physical not gold promises.Can you say Bre x?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/31/2003; 11:38:20 MDT - Msg ID: 96356)

A reminder, gentlemen! Valentine's Day is nearly upon us.

http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html

This Valentine's Day Give the Gift of Gold

Omega Necklaces & Accessories

Gold Omega Necklaces are currently a very hot fashion item!

Diamond Slides to accessorize your favorite Omega necklace.

Bangle Bracelets in plain style or with beautiful diamond cut engraving!

When you call, Marie can also tell you about items featuring birthstones along with many other great gift ideas!1-800-869-5115 ext.106

Purchase from USAGOLD by February 7th for Valentine's Day delivery and avoid those high jewelry store markups and sales taxes!

Tevye

(01/31/2003; 11:40:33 MDT - Msg ID: 96357)

21mabry and education

Sir 21mabry,

At one time many many many years ago I had two college courses: one on logic and one on religious belief and myth; along with many courses in the sciences.

A key item from the logic class: most folk reason correctly (politicians excepted), so don't bother fighting their logic. Rather look for incorrect presumptions upon which the reasoning is based. So if they tell you A -> B -> C ask why they believe A to be true, don't fight over C. Ask what happens if the reasoning starts with A and X, or A without Y, or whatever starting point you deem worthy of discussion. If Keynes is the presumption then logically gold may have little place. If Keynes+60years inflation then ??? If Mises then ??? Asking for a professors reasoning on _your_ presumptions makes for respectable and educational discourse.

A key item from religious belief: sane people act on what they believe. Myth is defined as the unsupported belief we act on! Don't think of myth as ancient greek gods. Think of myth as secular faith. Whether A is true or not, if I do B because of it, then A is an active myth in my life. We _all_ have active myths!! Clearly those with degress in Marx-Lenin studies have (had) lots of myth in their lives. Those of us who continuously upgrade our Microsoft products .... nevermind. We are where we are because folk have acted (and will act on) their beliefs. If enough folk believe Elliot waves and act on trends against support levels ... then what? Does that mean that a statistic is causal??? So, you might be able to gain useful education by asking "did you get B when you acted on belief in A?" "What else did you get?" "Do you still believe A?" (b.t.w. this is the line of questioning a shrink uses)

Whatever your information source, profs, texts, gilded opinion, forums, ask what is believed to get to the presented result. Decide if you (should) believe it or not. Decide what may happen if enough (or certain) people believe it (political will).

When we act on myth long enough AND get consistently good results it becomes Tradition!

Gold. Its Tradition!

Tevye

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/31/2003; 11:43:19 MDT - Msg ID: 96358)

Primary trends... Why gold? Why now?

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/StocksVsMetal.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(01/31/2003; 11:53:43 MDT - Msg ID: 96359)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. I've noticed that USAGOLD / Centennial stresses education more than most of your competitors. Why is that?

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

Gandalf the White

(01/31/2003; 12:44:44 MDT - Msg ID: 96360)

TA TA TA TAAAAAAAAA We have WINNERS !!! <;-)

CONGRATULATIONS to "The POG CONTEST WINNERS !!"

===
Feb 03 High $371.5 Low $367.0 Settlement $368.3 Chg -0.3

FROM the Final Listing of Prognosticaions ---

**** $368.7 **** Toolie (01/23/03; 20:26:50MT - msg#: 95394

**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750

***********SETTLEMENT PRICE = $368.3

**** $368.2 **** Zelts (01/21/03; 07:34:30MT - msg#: 95080

**** $367.8 **** Woodie (1/28/03; 19:37:45MT - msg#: 96037
=====
AFTER a THOUGHTFUL review ---- A TIE !!
WE HAVE TWO FIRST PRIZE WINNERS and TWO RUNNERSUPS !!

BOTH Sir J-Bullion and Sir Zelts have EACH won a Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc GOLD coin.
AND, BOTH Sir Woodie and Sir Toolie have won a one ounce PURE SILVER Maple Leaves !

WILL all the LUCKY WINNERS submit via email to Marie at the email address of -- marie@usagold.com -- their REAL names, their Forum "handles" and their snailmailing addresses !

Thanks all and look forward to the NEXT CONTEST in the NEAR Future !
<;-)

Black Blade

(01/31/2003; 12:58:54 MDT - Msg ID: 96361)

Gold Bugs Look To History

http://www.forbes.com/2003/01/31/cz_rl_0131gold.html?partner=yahoo&referrer=
Snippit:

Christopher Wood, emerging markets analyst for CLSA, a unit of Credit Lyonnais, believes strongly that "gold is at the very beginning of a multiyear bull market that will take the yellow metal many times higher than its present level." The reason Wood gives: "Gold is the only real hedge against the massive financial excesses that still prevail in the western world." Wood feels that central banks' gold reserves are not sufficient to defend against a run on the dollar that he believes has already begun. Lack of confidence in the U.S. currency, sharpened by war scares and a rising U.S. budget deficit, has pushed the euro from 98.52 cents in August to over $1.08. Speculators and hedge funds are betting that further weakness in the dollar can only strengthen the thin and volatile market for gold. "Asia is massively overweight the U.S. dollar and massively underweight gold," says Wood, the author of CLSA's Greed and Fear investment recommendations.

The World Gold Council estimates that gold's share of total foreign reserves is now 57% in the U.S., 51% in France, 50% in Italy and 39% in Germany. These strong positions compare with only 6% in India, 3% in Taiwan and Indonesia, 2% in China, Thailand and Singapore and only 0.1% in Korea and 0.02% in Hong Kong. "This massive Asian underweight position in gold makes no sense either from a financial or a geopolitical standpoint," says Wood. "The more the dollar falls and the more gold rises, the more Asian policy makers and central bankers are likely to focus on the risks of having all their eggs in one dollar basket." If the ratio of stocks to gold were to be five times--a common occurrence at other market troughs--gold would have to rise to $1,600 an ounce. "The bottom line is that gold is a hedge against both deflation and inflation, and the inevitable breakdown of the 'paper dollar standard,' asserts Wood.

Black Blade: Sounds good to me.

Black Blade

(01/31/2003; 13:14:17 MDT - Msg ID: 96362)

Gold on the rise again

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2713165.stm
Snippit:

Falling stock markets and increasing worries about a war with Iraq have once again given gold prices a lift. And leading African gold firm, AngloGold - the world's second largest producer of gold - has said it expects prices to rise still further this year. "Gold will always have a historical intrinsic value. If the world goes into global meltdown people will trade as they did many hundreds of years ago," Thebulliondesk.com analyst James Moore said. After years at the margins of the modern financial system, gold has made a strong comeback as a safe investment in times of international tension. "People have moved back to it because of its traditional, safe-haven value. We have seen an influx of ordinary people and bigger investors who have been absent from the market for about 10-15 years," Mr Moore said. Falling gold production and volatile stock markets are likely to support gold prices in the longer term, AngloGold chief executive Bobby Godsell told the BBC Radio's World Business Report.

Black Blade: Falling gold production has been a common theme noted by those in the industry and with little new exploration and the considerable lag time for new production from new mines we are looking at a long term disconnect between supply and demand. There have also been several reports of high net worth individuals buying bullion in recent weeks. Hey, maybe Farfel's "Velvet Rope" hypothesis is coming into play. ;-)

21mabry

(01/31/2003; 14:07:57 MDT - Msg ID: 96364)

thnx for responses

thnx all for responses,and i will treat profs. with respect. had a great one last semester in american urban history,gave us a good rundown on the gold silver ratio in currency thru out american history.but he was 75 years old tenure well published he didnt care what the school thought of him.i liked him.my university is very politialy correct.i respect all people and judge by the person not the race.but here are examples north american indians are always called native americans okay thats fine but i was born here am i not a native american too.i had a professor in third world studies i liked the guy he was a great teacher had worked for the world bank he knew the score.he would blame the western and northern world for alot of the prolems in the world maybe rightly so,but one day i asked him to define the western and northern world he said when i say those terms i mean the white world.i am white he was black it did not bother me he said it its college all views need to be heard but if that situation was turned around in various ways can u imagine the fallout.i just want to learn the truth no matter what it is,i have gotten more knowledge from this forum in 6 months then 6 years of school thnx all also ii live within 100 miles of hillsdale college a friend played football there i know someone mentioned that.

ElGordo

(01/31/2003; 14:12:06 MDT - Msg ID: 96365)

RE: Black Blade (1/31/03; 12:58:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 96361)

I was just going to post that! Its a great arguement for Gold.
What's also interesting=its in Forbes!
Forbes has trashed Gold over the years.
Slowly the media is coming around? hehe
We need joe six pack! Come on America-
Go for the Gold. If you wind up with Silver-
itza OK.

Belgian thanks for info.
Pensions will be in trouble in the US too.

Black Blade

(01/31/2003; 14:16:10 MDT - Msg ID: 96366)

How Goes January So Goes The Year

The January effect indicator suggests that as goes the stock markets in January then the rest of the year's stock performance will be the same. It has proven out 15 out of 18 of the last 18 years. This January the DOW, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 ended in negative territory. This isn't a perfect barometer but those who follow such indicators are probably a bit concerned. My favorite is the hemline indicator, but then that's another story.

- Black Blade

R Powell

(01/31/2003; 14:18:48 MDT - Msg ID: 96367)

Contest

Gandalf! You mean you wanted today's closing price and not next Friday's? I have no doubt whatsoever that my $389.0 is spot on correct but it's for next Friday. All that divination work, not to mention that fat Rhode Island Red who gallantly offered her life for the entrail reading under the new moon.

Oh well, Congratulations to the winners.

Thanks to Gandalf and CPM for the fun

And, being as it is Friday.....
HAPPY WEEKEND !!!
Rich
P.S. Tevye- Nice post!

timbervision

(01/31/2003; 14:30:53 MDT - Msg ID: 96368)

Belgian

Sir Belgian,
Thank you once again for responding to my questions. The more I read you the more minedless I become. I almost totally lost my mines today.

I saw a news piece the other day that sleeping children will often sleep right through a home fire alarm. Your (A/FOA) "alarm" is falling on people who need to hear it but for many reasons don't.

R Powell

(01/31/2003; 14:52:30 MDT - Msg ID: 96369)

21mabry

Suggestion Very often professors will teach more than one course. So, if that 75 year old tenured dude is that good, maybe you might ask him what other courses he teaches.

Or, ask him what he would like to offer. If it interests you and enough other students, relay that fact with encouragement to the professor and then ask the school administration to allow him to proceed. A "British Medieval History" course was born via this method once.

I'm guessing that with the luxury of total disconnect from social or administrative approval that age and tenure have given, the old gent would really sparkle teaching that which most interests him.

The proof of this concept can be found on the "hit tally" counter of this forum. I haven't heard a count recently but I'm sure we're close to a hit for every penny of the national debt. Well, maybe not quite. But....How about a ratio of number of visits to ounces of gold in storage? Yes, that's better.

Has the 370-372 level become the new resistence for gold that needs breaking? How many shots at it before it falls?
Rich

balzac

(01/31/2003; 15:15:10 MDT - Msg ID: 96370)

CDN GOLD INDEX

Every one of the shares on the Cdn gold index is down, this is the
first time in a couple of months this has happened, average -1.55
PERCENT. Those dam hedgefunds.

Black Blade

(01/31/2003; 15:29:23 MDT - Msg ID: 96371)

Natural Gas Industry Update

http://170.12.99.3/researchpdf/iEne013003b_1050.pdf
EIA Reports Huge 247 Bcf Withdrawal, Revises Prior Week's Withdrawal Upward by 9 Bcf The EIA reported a 247 Bcf withdrawal and revised last week's withdrawal upward by 9 Bcf to 219 Bcf. This compares to the Street's expectations of a 228-237 Bcf withdrawal and our estimate of a 225-235 Bcf withdrawal.

*We estimate this week's report implies that the gas markets are ~5 Bcf/d tighter relative to last year on a weather-adjusted basis.

*The near-month (February) contract is trading flat intraday on the EIA's report at $5.63/MMBtu.

*NOAA has forecasted 183 degree days for the week ending February 1, 2002. If the forecast is accurate, we expect next week's EIA report to show a withdrawal of approximately 180-200 Bcf as there will likely be some carryover related to this week's large withdrawal.

*We continue to believe the natural gas markets are poised for a major supply shock this winter, the beginnings of which are only just beginning to be reflected in prices. As such, we remain extremely bullish on natural gas prices.

U.S. Storage

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported levels of working natural gas in U.S. storage facilities decreased 247 billion cubic feet (Bcf) during the week ended January 24, versus a withdrawal of 112 Bcf in the same week last year. The EIA also revised last week's reported 210 Bcf withdrawal upward by 9 Bcf to 219 Bcf. Working gas in storage totaled 1,729 billion cubic feet, versus 2,410 Bcf in storage last year. There is now 681 Bcf less gas in storage than last year at this time. This week's withdrawal was larger than the Street's range of expectations, which called for a 228-237 Bcf withdrawal. As a result, the near-month (February) natural gas contract traded flat intraday at 5.63/MMBtu.

Canadian Storage

The Canadian Gas Association reported that levels of working gas in storage decreased 34.2 Bcf for the week ending January 17, compared to a withdrawal of 18.9 Bcf during the same week last year. Levels of gas in storage totaled 245.5 Bcf, or 50.7% of capacity, versus 85.1% last year. Volumes of gas in Canadian storage are 166.9 Bcf below last year's level.

Black Blade: See the entire report at the link. This is quite a problem for corporations and consumers and it appears that supply will get very tight with much higher prices. Also note that Canadian NG is at very low levels. They won't be much help this year. Meanwhile oil inventories are still at record low levels as well. However, it appears that Chavez has broken the Venezuelan strike but production will resume at only a third of pre-strike levels for some time. On top of all the problems in the US economy (weak dollar, rising debt, weak corporate earnings, rising unemployment, etc.), the US is in for a very rude awakening with another energy crisis close at hand. Protect those investment portfolios with some PM insurance!

Off to the gym!

Ag Mountain

(01/31/2003; 15:33:44 MDT - Msg ID: 96372)

GoldnSilver2002, that's a great one ----- msg#: 96355

An investor in real gold can have good objectivity and can conclude like you have that investments in the mining operations are weak sisters or worse. That's good thinking.

It's funny when you look at the scene from the other direction, from the perspective of the people deeply invested in the mines. They'll never admit their own investment weaknesses because then they wouldn't sleep well at night. More importantly, they can't dare say anything bad about the gold as an important investment itself because then where would they be? They'd be trying to get their leverage while dismissing the fulcrum and the bar.

Boy, those mining share guys sure are conflicted! A lot of them probably won't get another chance to try again and get it right. They'll wonder until the day they die how gold can soar but mine life just dribbles on at breakeven production of low yield ore. It's so easy to see why if you're not biased and scared. Gold owners can see it. The mining CEOs like having a job!! As long as scratching in the open pit can keep the lights on, to hell with the share price or dividends.

Thanks for the great post.

mikal

(01/31/2003; 15:38:09 MDT - Msg ID: 96373)

Spot Gold waiting for real starting line and obstacle course to show it's stuff

Geopolitical events next month must necessarily bring on additional POG pressure. The U.S. is active in N. Iraq and possibly infiltrating special operations teams elsewhere or throughout. The Japanese evacuation and rumored war plans for the 5th of February came next.
Similar stories and rumors will grow and pressure POG next week.
Also there'll be POG short and long-term positive support and outsized performance from increased physical demand, higher oil and gas prices, more debt and stagflationary news, diminished finances, funds and solvency of national, state and corporate entities, seasonal and cyclic bullishness, reduction in sales and employment and most any straight-up story reported, unreported or yet-to-be reported!

@RPowell- What about those Fort Knox rumors?
Isn't Greenspan talking more and more about gold, a strong vote of confidence in the sanctity of U.S. gold stores/reserves? He seems self-assured, especially that last speech. I am merely hoping he is for the sake of the dollar, those holding it, and everyone(the world) affected by it's fate.

Mr Gresham

(01/31/2003; 15:46:08 MDT - Msg ID: 96374)

Mine your own business, and I'll mind mine...

Just to butt in with a thought here.

Gold doesn't need mines to be money or wealth itself.

Mines need gold, to be a profitable businesses.

I have some acquaintances who are trying to shut down a gold mine, polluting their river, I think is their objection.

You could shut down all the mines in the world, and we would still have (maybe even better) the gold bull we are getting now.

Two different animals. Profits from a derivative business -- possible, but a bonus if the leverage works. And yes, I'll reveal my share of sour grapes at not getting in on the HUI double of last year. ;-(

'Nother POG thought -- I'll bet we don't get a tradable decline, or spend more than a couple flat months, this year.

sector has that 630 in the sights of his statistical smart bomb!

CoBra(too)

(01/31/2003; 16:03:53 MDT - Msg ID: 96375)

The Current System seems to spin out of Control -

At an ever faster rate. The US-Dollar based hegemonial reserve currency system, after having wreaked havoc on many a nation is now haunted by similar symptoms.

The IMF and World Bank can't recycle the old debts fast enough as it can't find too many takers for the newly created Dollars by the FED - and it's only a measly 125 basis points to the abyss.

The same abyss the Japanese financial institutions find themseves in after 12 years and 4 real recessions/ depressions. The extravagancy of BoJ in printing Yen is merely comparable by that Japan only has a huge internal deficit spending imbalance, while the current account and the private sector balances are hugely positive. Competitive devaluations in both currencies are ongoing as japanese savers rush ever more to the safe haven of gold and they may not be alone for long.

Meantime new gold backed currencies as in the Malayan Rupee or the Islamic Gold Dinar are going to be put in place. On top of that the Chinese have started their own Gold Exchange, yet without freeing the Yuan, while Russia is also introducing a convertible Gold Chernovetz.

But the game goes on. The unsinkable ships will not be allowed to sink. The hedonic reporting on the economy states that growth in the last quarter added almost .7% to GDP, or about 250 Billion Dollars. Quite a feat, considering AOL/Time Warner lost 100 Billion and the work force is even worse, in the same stretch. Ha, lets just recycle the old US Dollar and reflate all the debts outstanding. Gee, it's only about a bit over one year of the world's total GDP. After all the old US of A is the largest economy of the globe, and imperialistically will fight anyone contending to the hegemony.

As long as the big boys are hiding under an umbrella of 100 plus Trillion Dollars derivative or hedge smoke screens the game may go on for a while. The ultimate implosion will echo around the world.

The EU and its euro may still be in its infancy. Maybe, geo-politically that may be correct - geo-economically and in spite of the current weakness - probably not. There is no overall indebtedness, nor negative trade balances or overconsumption. And in all fairness, while the EU was counting on the US consumer to again take up the slack - it may now well be to re-orient the focus towards the new emerging economies to the East - and not new EU members only.
- The re-valuation between the Euro and Dollar, while probably still in progress may well lead to accelerated investments in the East, though in the long run will have to be remedied by similar token of hegemonial standard, or again ending in competitive de-valuation. As the EU won't forever accept to hold depreciating US fiat paper for (ha, increasingly) negative or no return the 15% gold reserve is marked to market. A strong incentive to write off Dollars for an increasing POG, freed from the shackles of the USD.

Of course, some of the leading Bullion Banks and even CB's on the Continent, not mentioning the blunder of BoE, are in a similar boat as the JPM's and Citi's - the euro still has an official 15% of Gold Reserves (Wonder how that was even installed under the regime of the Plaza and foregoing accords?).

Sorry for a longish and not edited rant as the musical chairs game seems akin to a danse macabre or maybe more like a merry go round with only a few chairs remaining.

Secure your golden "Life Savers" now - not the Wrigley's kind - even if I like 'em too - cb2

R Powell

(01/31/2003; 17:02:13 MDT - Msg ID: 96376)

Mr Gresham

You just lamented as follows...

"And yes, I'll reveal my share of sour grapes at not getting in on the HUI double of last year."

Perhaps a look at those stocks or that index over a much longer time period would change your perspective as to having missed an opportunity. I wondered if the POG breakout over $330 was really the beginning of a long term bull move. The resistance, fight and final break through the $355 level were almost necessary to confirm what the economic conditions told us should be happening- namely a bull market. I don't own stocks but think perhaps that we've only just begun. POG has not even reached four figures yet :>)

I hope you are surviving the winter well in "happy valley". I saw that -23 degree morning temperature in Orange last week. We had zero here on the Cape. Burrr
Rich

Mr Gresham

(01/31/2003; 17:33:27 MDT - Msg ID: 96377)

Rich

Well, it was probably lost in our earlier chats, but I escaped "Siberia" many years back, though I was just in Hamp at Thanksgiving, in time for early snow, and 12 degree temps. I LOVE to visit there, mess up a rental car real good, knowing I'll probably never buy snow tires again!

Now, who was it still in the area -- from back a year ago I think we were connecting?

ElGordo

(01/31/2003; 17:37:23 MDT - Msg ID: 96378)

Weakest industry conditions on record

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Applied Materials Inc. AMAT.O , the world's largest maker of microchip production equipment, warned on Friday that quarterly orders would miss expectations by $234 million because chip makers have reined in spending due to war jitters and an anemic economy.

The company, facing the worst slump the $19 billion chip equipment industry has ever seen, also said it would take a $100 million charge against earnings in the first quarter, related to a round of layoffs in November.

It was the first time since July 1998 that Applied Materials has issued a warning to investors in advance of its quarterly earnings. The company will release earnings for its first quarter, which ended Sunday, on Feb. 11.
----

On Thursday, Applied Materials said in a Texas state filing that it would lay off an additional 165 employees at its Austin, Texas, facility.

1340cc

(01/31/2003; 17:44:31 MDT - Msg ID: 96379)

21mabry & Black Blade

Young man you have just gotten $1,000,000 worth of good old
horse sense. But I think you'll do just fine. I'll add just this one thing to what the sages here have told you. In the Army there is the #1. The right way #2. The wrong way and #3. The Army way. In other words The right way, The wrong way & The real way.

To Black Blade; We "talked" about Boot's and Coot's. Well I just started an account for my daughter (36) and I started it with Gold and Silver stock. I bought a little (very) B&C at .30 and sold it at .51. Now I'll put that little (very) profit into G&S. Dumb luck I know but hey who cares!
She just last year lost her job in the, drumn roll please, .COM bussiness. Now Mom is a genius!

To Clink; Still looking at that Mini.

ElGordo

(01/31/2003; 17:50:07 MDT - Msg ID: 96380)

Japan pushing down on Gold

miner49er

(01/31/2003; 17:52:26 MDT - Msg ID: 96381)

timbervision @ 93619

Hi timbervision, long time since we've corresponded. Just to let you know that I have seen your post, and I will try to get to it shortly. Lots of pressing stuff today...

Best regards,
miner

ElGordo

(01/31/2003; 18:13:33 MDT - Msg ID: 96382)

US claims to have electronic intercepts showing Iraq non-compliance

http://www.msnbc.com/news/867105.asp?0sl=-21For the past two months, ever since the U.N. inspectors re-entered Iraq and began searching for weapons of mass destruction, the NSA has been closely monitoring the conversations of Iraqi officials.

The NSA intercepts establish conclusively that the Iraqis have been "hiding stuff" from the inspectors, the U.S. intelligence official said.

"They're saying things like, �Move that,� �Don't be reporting that� and �Ha! Can you believe they missed that�," the official said. "It's that kind of stuff."
___________
More war talk next week.

Trojan

(01/31/2003; 20:54:59 MDT - Msg ID: 96383)

@ ElGordo "The Other Side Of War"

ElGordo: Do you believe what you posted Re: Intercepts ?

Also Though Not Gold Related though War is I guess, I thought I'd post this rather SOBERING item I just got from Buzzflash.

Just to keep everything in perspective.

buzzflash@buzzflash.com (BuzzFlash)
Date: Fri, Jan 31, 2003, 3:57pm (EST-3) To: Trojan

Subject: Navy Recruiting Morticians: Position will require relocating

We're Not Making This Up! Macabre reminder of what's to come.

http://www.hotjobs.com/cgi-bin/job-show?TEMPLATE=/htdocs/job-show.html&J__PINDEX=J956129UU&P__SOURCE=HJC&P__SOURCE_SPECIFIC=HJC&BOLD_KEYWORDS=navy+morticians&BOLD_OPENTAG=%3Cspan+class%3D%22bold-opentag%22%3E&BOLD_CLOSETAG=%3C%2Fspan%3E

MORTICIAN-$6,000 Sign-On Bonus

Location: New York, NY; Los Angeles, CA; Chicago, IL; Houston, TX;
Philadelphia, PA; San Diego, CA

Position Type: Employee

Position Duration: Full-Time

Date Posted: 01/31/2003

We are looking for candidates Nationwide!!!!
Worldwide. Position will require relocating.

The Navy Mortuary Affairs Program is responsible for the recovery, preparation and final disposition of Navy and Marine Corps deceased personnel and their eligible beneficiaries.

Even during peacetime, we are funeral service professionals caring for our brothers and sisters-in-arms throughout the world during a most difficult time, providing aid to their families with Honor and Dignity.

You would serve as a uniformed member of the United States Navy Hospital Corps, a group deeply ingrained with traditions of Honor and Commitment not unlike the devotion of those who choose the funeral industry as their career.

Requirements are a graduate of accredited Mortuary school and licensed Funeral Directors/Embalmers willing to serve where needed in locations such as Italy, Spain, Guam and the United States. Experience in all facets of the funeral industry is a plus with emphasis placed on technical ability. An enlistment award of $6000 is available as well as advanced rate upon completion of training.

Applicant must be a U.S. Citizen , less than 35 years of age, and in good health.

Worldwide. Position will require relocating.

For more information, contact a Career Development Specialist at hj@cnrc.navy.mil (email), or 888-633-9674 (toll free).

You are currently subscribed to BuzzFlash

Trojan: Pretty sad for everyone including the Children on both sides.

(01/31/2003; 21:13:21 MDT - Msg ID: 96384)

Congrats. . .

Congratulations to J-Bullion and Zelts for posting the right price and winning the gold, and thanks to all our participants. It was a great time. The participation seems to grow in leaps and bounds each time we hear the trumpet sound. Special thanks to Gandalf, the wizardrous one, for another great job of contest monitoring.

A reminder to our winners of both the silver and gold to get your snail mail address to marie@usagold.com. . .

Stay tuned. We'll do it again soon. And who knows what that starting point will be when the Call to Contest rings again across these Castle walls. . . . .

One more thing: I really believe that the short essays accompanying the guesses is where most will find the lasting value. It's comforting to know that we have kindred souls all over the globe and that they express themselves in much the same way most of us would even if we couldn't garner the courage to make that first post. In the final analysis, it's not the ideas and prognostications that carry the day, but that common interest. That holds great value for me and I know for most of our lurkers and participants. I never would have guessed we would have come so far from that day in September, 1998 when it all started with a post from the courageous BMACD -- our very first poster -- then answered by FOA. That simple and intelligent exchange set the tone for all that followed.

We've come a long way. Thanks again to all.

ElGordo

(01/31/2003; 21:15:33 MDT - Msg ID: 96385)

Bush and Blair agree to give Saddam some time to comply

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,886826,00.htmlTrojan: Do I believe the US has wire intercepts? They could
and we will hear what they have next week when Powell does
his presentation. Then you can judge for yourself.

Back when the Soviets shot down the airliner over Korea they
used NSA intercepts of the cockpit voice chatter between
the soviet pilots, remember that one? We have some pretty
incredible intercept technology, it will be funny to hear the
Iraqi's giving each other high 5's about jerking the inspectors
around.

mikal

(01/31/2003; 21:20:58 MDT - Msg ID: 96386)

@Trojan

That's very interesting, thanks. I had been job hunting recently and constantly came across a plethora of military job listings in the ads and gov't's computer job data bank. All kinds of things like construction workers, electronics technicians, mechanics and other civilian employs.
Yet I don't know what to believe. For example, tonight a poster at another forum excerpted Richard Russell's latest, saying the war will probably be over in weeks or DAYS, the Iraqi's have been eager to surrender and the shock will result in a collapsing stock market. Regards

Daniel Druff

(01/31/2003; 21:34:01 MDT - Msg ID: 96387)

Gold: Cover or Cover-up? by Mr. Reg Howe

Regarding his section entitled, More on Gold Derivatives
Mr. Howe points to: Gold Derivatives, Gold Lending, Official Management of the Gold Price and the Current State of the Gold Market by Mr. Frank Veneroso.

"...three new points worthy of mention."

"Third, he reports from contacts in the hedge fund industry, 'a growing belief that the gold market is being managed by the official sector and that this management will at some point fail.' This perception in itself constitutes a 'challenge' to the central banks, and citing recent comments from the Bundesbank about its willingness to consider selling more gold, Mr. Veneroso foresees the possibility of 'further official statements or actions that might be construed as part of an attempt to manage the gold price.' He adds: 'One or more of these statements or actions may be so extreme as to shock the market.'"

"ONE OR MORE OF THESE STATEMENTS OR ACTIONS MAY BE SO EXTREME AS TO SHOCK THE MARKET."

What is the most extreme statement or action which we might anticipate? And how might we respond to a "managed" shock of the market?

CONFISCATION

Or how about, "The Treasury Department in conjunction with The Federal Reserve Bank, will present to Congress a recommendation for nationalizing all gold mines within the United States."

Now that ought to shock the market!

Regarding CONFISCATION: In my opinion, very unlikely. It is certainly possible, but in that we actually live in a country which claims to honor and occasionally abide by its Constitution, a move to confiscate gold bullion from our citizens would make China, inlight of its recent opening of a gold exchange, look like a bastion for Goldwater Republicans.

Regarding NATIONALIZING THE GOLD MINES: Now this could become amusing. But first a review of recent comments and one little rumor...

Many of us received the following from GATA on Mar 25, 2002
"Fed considered emergency measures to save economy"

By Peronet Despeignes
Financial Times
March 24, 2002

"WASHINGTON --.....
The official, who asked not to be named, would not elaborate but mentioned 'buying U.S. equities' as an example of such possible measures, and later said the Fed 'could theoretically buy anything to pump money into the system,' including 'state and local debt, real estate, and gold mines -- any asset.'"

"AND GOLD MINES"

Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke
Before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C.
November 21, 2002

in part, "...the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost."

Who can possibly dispute the truth of the above statement? It is incredible that the ralling cry of the Gold Bug Community is acknowledged by one of the leading academic miscreants of sound economic teaching. Governor Bernanke, who was recently the Dean of the Econ Department at Princeton, has threatened to, TURN ON THE PRINTING PRESSES, if need be. We've been warning about that eventuality for decades. Well, here we are.

Five weeks later...

Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
Before the Economic Club of New York, New York City
December 19, 2002

"Issues for Monetary Policy

Although the gold standard could hardly be portrayed as having produced a period of price tranquility, it was the case that the price level in 1929 was not much different, on net, from what it had been in 1800. But, in the two decades following the abandonment of the gold standard in 1933, the consumer price index in the United States nearly doubled. And, in the four decades after that, prices quintupled. Monetary policy, unleashed from the constraint of domestic gold convertibility, had allowed a persistent overissuance of money. As recently as a decade ago, central bankers, having witnessed more than a half-century of chronic inflation, appeared to confirm that a fiat currency was inherently subject to excess."

The Chairman, a man noted for being 'measured of speech', starts with, "gold standard" and ends the paragraph with, "...fiat currency was inherently subject to excess."

SIGNALS

As investors/speculators what are we to conclude and/or anticipate?

These people do not make silly mistakes...certainly not back-to-back within five weeks. Should we factor in the possibility - perhaps remote but possible none the less - that they have gone on-the-record with these very unusual and unexpected comments, inorder to appear 'transparent at heart' when it becomes official that a tender offer is going to be made for all producing gold mines within The United States? That announcement, with many improved detains beyond my imagination, would 'shock the market', indeed. So let's plan on making them a deal.

Bare minimum...don't even consider anything lower...$600 per ounce before the tender offer is even considered.

Gold was $850 in '80 when the fiat supply was much lower so maybe $1,000 to $1,200 is a more reasonable starting point.

From what I understand, Mr. Bolser of GATA has done the math, the money suppy increase since '80 should justify $6,800 per ounce...now we're getting somewhere.

ANOTHER has predicted gold at $30,000...but who in their right mind would sell perfectly good gold for worthless paper, unless you needed to patch your roof as did the Russians in the late 90's Ruble blowup?

I say, BRING ON NATIONALIZATION OF OUR GOLD MINES...kinda gives understanding to the inverted condition in the gold mining sector.

HOWEVER, the shorts in the mining shares are wrong. The leverage will work against them, especially when we start suggesting that for the benefit of The United States of America and The World, we Gold Bugs will sacrifice some filthy lucre inorder to expedite a move to sound money...personally, $1,200 per ounce for the "deep storage reserves" of all mining companies is fair enough...use some conservative PE ratio when figuring their forward looking earnings, keeping in mind that's only twice the amount which Mr. Veneroso has claimed will "clear the market." Yes, we should encourage and then consider a realistic tender offer from our country, soon.

It sure feels good to be patriotic.

Thank you

Black Blade

(01/31/2003; 21:35:05 MDT - Msg ID: 96388)

U.S. States Fire Workers as Budget Deficits Grow, Cash Dwindles

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Local%20Muni%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_munibonds&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk∣dle=blk&s=APjmA4xXpVS5TLiBT
Snippit:

Salem, Oregon, Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Oregon residents, faced with paying higher income taxes in a state with the second-highest unemployment rate in the U.S., chose to fire state troopers instead. The vote this week may be a harbinger for state government workers across the U.S. Governors in New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, California, Ohio, and Washington are among those proposing to fire workers, leave vacancies unfilled or offer early retirement to help erase growing deficits. States have fewer choices after patching budgets last year with rainy-day funds and borrowing against a national tobacco settlement. With options more limited ``this year than last, states will take more drastic measures to balance their budgets,'' said Arturo Perez, an analyst at the National Conference of State Legislatures in Denver. More state leaders are now saying, ```Everything's on the table.' This is not something we heard as often last year.'' U.S. states have raised their combined budget deficit estimates to $105.7 billion, or $367 for every person in the country, through 2005, according to the American Legislative Exchange Council, a lobbying group. The shortfalls are up 17 percent from the council's calculation as recently as last month. A stalled economic recovery and stock market losses have slashed tax collections below projections. Many states and local governments used one-time fixes last year to ``bide time until things improved and obviously they have not improved,'' Perez said.

Black Blade: Another proposal by many states is to raise taxes. That of course will only accelerate more job losses and cutting more services as companies reduce hiring and fire workers to make up the loss. This is just the beginning of a precipitous slide into oblivion. That's what happens when states don't save and pay off debt during times of plenty and spend like drunken sailors instead. The chickens are coming home to roost.

miner49er

(01/31/2003; 21:56:17 MDT - Msg ID: 96389)

timbervision @ 96319

Sir timbervision - got a few minutes to write back...

First, when you speak of this remonetization of gold, let's clarify that, briefly. Strictly speaking, the Fed has been monetizing gold all along. In the strictest sense, the use of gold in the creation of money by issuing currency against reserves has never ceased. The US Treasury has issued gold certificates to the Federal Reserve at $42.22 / oz., and these certificates form part of the asset base of the Fed, along with Treasury and Agency debt, SDRs and other minor holdings. Money is created when loans are made against it, thus "monetizing" the gold. ECB and ECB System gold is held in reserve and lending against this gold is how their gold is also "monetized."

It does not make or mean that the gold is "money." And it does not mean it is convertible, in either framework. The Sinclair discussion of "remonetization" refers to a minimum coverage guarantee. This too, is not convertibility, just a promise to the currency using world that the US really, really means business, by promising not to over-issue above a formulaic benchmark. (This is another story for another post, however.) This gold certificate cover ratio is not "re"-monetization as a) the strict definition of monetizing is already happening, and b) this action only introduces a supposed golden discipline to currency issue.

I think you may really be referring to what some of us here term the "revaluation" of gold, in that we sense a coming shift in the financial paradigm of our planet that will bring about a rather rapid, sudden, and dramatic change in the value perceptions, and subsequent price of physical gold. Now, is there some chance that the "big interests" you refer to may also perceive the imminence of such an event, and are reducing mining share exposure accordingly?

I think of things like that, too, sometimes. But I, like Belgian before me, do not follow the mining aspects closely any longer, as I do not have any real need to. Generally, I follow trends, but only as it all relates to gold-the-metal. Personally, I don't doubt that some large interest managers think of these possibilities, and some even believe them. Many more (IMHE) probably don't. There are two very different world views driving investment strategies. To the degree mining share investment is driven by overseas funds, this notion may have some validity. Contrarily, if mining shares are driven by the US/Canadian axis, then it probably has no significant influence at all.

Where you speak of this "cataclysmic" event, I would interject that no one wants this to be a cataclysmic event -- except those with inimical designs. It is in no well-meaning person's interest to see the US destabilized by an ill-timed, ill-conceived rocketing of the price of gold. A re-valuing of gold is a beneficial thing for all except those who are inextricably tied to a monetary framework that by its very design must always be at odds with gold. It is not cataclysmic, except possibly for these others.

Imagine for an example, as Belgian alluded to, the unsolvable burden of too many old people, who can no longer produce, and now cost exorbitant amounts of money to provide for. All these raised in the socialist hey-day of the 20th Century. And all these have all their hope and understanding centered upon the ability of the state pension systems to provide. Now, if effective pro-gold ownership marketing and policy directives, backed up with solid performance of the metal, can get people to own physical gold and save for themselves -- in a savings instrument that is not by design doomed to devaluation -- but is free to hold its value, hence preserving the purchasing power of its owner, then the socialized burden of government care for the elderly can be reduced greatly over time. The US proposals of letting people direct their social security taxation partly into the stock market via individual accounts attempted to do similarly -- i.e., reduce the burden on government, but was forced to use the seemingly best option inside of the restrictions of the dollar framework. It was a horrific idea as most people CANNOT make money investing outside of an artificial bubble. (This is not to say I disagree with private accounts for part of one's social security payments, if we must indeed pay them at all; or that people should be restricted in their investments, but only that stock investing inside a government program opens wide a pandora's box for government guarantees on these monies, and should not be part of the arrangement.)

So, without getting off on that topic too far, I raise it just to give a comparison to what I'm getting at in terms of what is potential with the Euro system, but not in the current Dollar system. The great thing about gold, remember, is that it doesn't take lots of brains to know that it is a good thing to have some. The problem has been with this legacy of the traditional gold standard that gold has been artificially suppressed not just for decades, but for as long as man has fixed a value against it and used it as money. It must necessarily always be in a negative tension with the currency it is supposed to back. Freed from this, and free to value itself in terms of a non-politicized, de-nationalized market, of non-contract, spot trade only, it once again becomes the natural savings tool for rich and poor, smart and dumb alike. Pay for things, and invest with your currency, and save your excess in gold. Real straightforward.

Now... where this whole concept is at odds with the world view that still perceives gold mining shares as the most explosive investment that will outshine internet stocks by orders of magnitude, is in the differing view of the dollar and the euro. Let's review the chief arguments for the leverage in the mines. The basic 101 argument is this: Mine XYZ brings gold to market at say $250 / oz. Therefore gold at $260 / oz. should realize EPS of $10.00. If gold goes up to $270 (approx. 3.8% increase), then assuming nothing else has changed, EPS should have gone to $20.00, or a 100% increase. People salivate then when they see gold at $370 (42.3% more than $260), and do the math to see that XYZ should be realizing a sizzling 1100% gain in earnings, and extrapolate that into a hypothetical share price. Then when the momentum aspects are thrown in, the already incredible values should add at least another zero on to the end as an "investor irrationality" premium.

So, why has this not happened? Everyone has reasons. Lately the great satan is the short-seller. The thing to realize is that regarding the simplistic leverage projections, they depend entirely on everything else staying pretty much the same. And regarding a momentum play, where it's just a matter of waiting until "stupid Joe Sixpack" finally sees the light and piles in, this is not a given. Maybe he won't; at least not in the numbers and capital volume he did in the tech bubble. J. S. is in debt up to his ears, over-extended, sick of stocks, and while still likely to be drawn to an EZ munny scheme, just doesn't have it for this go-round. And unlike the tech bubble, gold price appreciation is anathema to the US dollar forces. They will not officially support or encourage investment in this area like they did techs and general equities in the 90s. So, it's not a matter of hoping that when J. S. sees gold "goin' to da' moon," that he'll put down his remote and call his broker. Gold isn't going to the moon, if the US faction has any say in the matter. So as long as they do, even while gold may realize healthy relative appreciation in terms of where it's been, it's not going to stir the hearts of the American soul to sell all he has (left), to buy gold stocks.

Did he care when palladium hiccuped a couple years ago? Did he care when oil shot from 8 to 30 a couple years ago? No. Both were healthy short term plays for in-tune speculators, but nothing to grab the nation. Had palladium gone to $2000, or stayed in the $1000 range for more than two weeks, maybe it would have received some notice. And surely had oil gone to $50 it would have received tons of news coverage, but pro-investment propaganda? Not hardly. JUST THE OPPOSITE -- the usual blather about the EVIL oil companies, blah, blah, blah... Natural gas saw some outrageous prices a couple years back, too. Lots of news, but investment rah-rah? Nope. Not from the ABCCBSNBCCNNCNBCFOX gaggle, anyway. In fact, it was largely Enron's association with gas plays that were brought to the public's attention. Not the stuff that gives J. S. a rush to go and throw money at energy. Gold will be the same if push comes to shove. Mines will not be promoted. They will be demonized. Don't doubt that it will be alleged that Al Qaeda owns stakes in your favorite...

Any commodity strength then (as now) is unequivocally forbidden, as it would show dollar weakness -- categorically impermissible in the very architecture of the US dollar framework. Period.

There is a letting off of steam right now, and perhaps an officially sanctioned upward valuation in gold, (really a downward valuation of the dollar) but there is not ANY will in the US quarters to see gold get away. As long as investment stays in paper products, and gold appreciates on schedule, and not too much, there will be some blessing upon it. But nothing that would cause a stampede. Also, whereas the 90s bubble created gazongs of jobs all over the place, fleeting as they were, this helped create a "virtual" circle that could feed on itself. A gold bubble (all the rest being equal) would mean more mining jobs, great for miners, but not the stuff that fills vacant office space in Everytown, USA. Besides, most employment gains wouldn't even happen in the US. And there is just not that much extra need for infrastructure improvements/growth. What? A railway here, a few new fleets of trucks there; some mining equipment, metallurgical services. All great for these sectors, but again, not the stuff that bleeds and feeds into mainstream America.

And finally, so why hasn't the mining leverage argument shown its muscle? A number of factors conceivably contribute. (Now mines have performed well, if one was in at the bottom, but nothing like the arguments propose.) The basic ones include currency appreciation in the mining countries vs. the USD (SA nearly 30% since its lowest); and increased costs due to production factors, mainly higher oil prices. On an individual basis, you might find new more expensive labor contracts, increased insurance costs, increased debt loads from the lean days, etc. Also, mining works set offline in the downturn, take time to start up again. And there are business strategic reasons to do just the opposite of what was done in the downward movement. When gold was on a down trend, miners had the pressure to forward sell production to stabilize cash flow. In an upward trend, they may hold back on unnecessary production, awaiting higher prices, especially if they are generating more (enough) cash flow from mining less reserves. (So, one may reason, all the more reason to get in while even fundamentals are still poor, knowing the "strategy" that secretly lies in wait...) But...

This brings us to the world view contrast mentioned above. This strategy, for one, of holding back production, depends on the correctness of the US/Canadian perspective, that while mostly recognizing the problems with the US dollar, and even acknowledging very severe issues with it, there just is no material assent to the plausibility of a globe-shaking change in its perception around the world. Such a change would involve the reduction and elimination of its reserve status to most central banks, and a movement away from its use in the area of international payments/settlements. The paper gold markets either squeeze into an administrative/legal quagmire, and become useless, or players exit before anyone yells fire, also leaving them impotent on the world stage. The ensuing deflation of the paper gold markets, whose pricing no longer matters, in contrast with the skyrocketing real price of physical gold -- especially in terms of the overinflated US dollar, would cause banks everywhere to once again covet the metal for reserves. Realizing the value now of gold in the ground relative to gold above ground, the power of state will quickly figure out that it should lock down its precious mines. The mines will be regulated to a) deliver to the big creditors who have claims to it (like ME oil), and b) mine the rest for the benefit of the central bank, and c) if enough has been put in reserve, lock the rest down and bring up only what's needed, so as to keep this precious reserve very, very expensive for a long time to come...

Not the stuff that makes for happy-camper mine investors.

So while there may be some more play in this ol' gold-mining fish, one has to weigh the information presented. We all present our humble opinions here. The decision is ultimately something each individual must make for themselves.

Cheers and all the best, timbervision...,
miner

Black Blade

(01/31/2003; 21:58:55 MDT - Msg ID: 96390)

The New Global Job Shift

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_05/b3818001.htm
Snippit:

What happens if all those displaced white-collar workers can't find greener pastures? Sure, tech specialists, payroll administrators, and Wall Street analysts will land new jobs. But will they be able to make the same money as before? It's possible that lower salaries for skilled work will outweigh the gains in corporate efficiency. "If foreign countries specialize in high-skilled areas where we have an advantage, we could be worse off," says Harvard University economist Robert Z. Lawrence, a prominent free-trade advocate. "I still have faith that globalization will make us better off, but it's no more than faith."

If the worries prove valid, that could reshape the globalization debate. Until now, the adverse impact of free trade has been confined largely to blue-collar workers. But if more politically powerful middle-class Americans take a hit as white-collar jobs move offshore, opposition to free trade could broaden.

What makes this trend so viable is the explosion of college graduates in low-wage nations. In the Philippines, a country of 75 million that churns out 380,000 college grads each year, there's an oversupply of accountants trained in U.S. accounting standards. India already has a staggering 520,000 IT engineers, with starting salaries of around $5,000. U.S. schools produce only 35,000 mechanical engineers a year; China graduates twice as many. "There is a tremendous pool of well-trained people in China," says Johan A. van Splunter, Philips' Asia chief executive.

Black Blade: This is a good article and is exactly as I have thought for a long time. First the blue-collar jobs went and now it's the white-collar workers who are headed to the "Bone Pile". It isn't hard to understand as Americans are by nature lazy and slothful with little motivation to learn critical thinking skills or to better themselves intellectually. It's ingrained in our culture. I recall spending hours in the lab or hitting the books or being engaged in research in my college days always wanting to learn and understand more. It seems as if at least half my classmates were from SE Asia or China. Instead of the hard sciences, American students opt for less studious careers and even then most just get by to graduate. This is no surprise to me.

Trojan

(01/31/2003; 22:09:10 MDT - Msg ID: 96391)

North Korea Is Playing Hard Ball

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1042491402910I think there is a very SERIOUS situation developing RAPIDLY in North Korea that will be Very Positive for Gold and very negative for the USA.

I have been reading the North Korean News via the Internet (Link Via Drudge) for the last month or so.

I think I have a pretty good handle on their way of thinking. They are EXTREMELY Clever people.

They want a NON-Agression Pact. Period. They KNOW that right now the USA is HELPLESS to deal with them in any serious way because the main part of their forces are heading to Iraq.

They KNOW that the Closer they get to producing Nuclear weapons the MORE Leverage they have.

Read the Article in the link above. They want the USA to know what they are doing. They want Face To Face Talks with the USA to negotiate the Non-Agression Pact.

The longer the USA waits to sit down with North Korea the STRONGER North Korea gets.

Meanwhile the USA looks Impotent as this goes on.

Here we have Iraq with NO Nuclear weapons and North Korea with them or about to get them and what can the USA do ? Remember North Korea recently had a Scud Missile shipment to Yemen stopped by the USA and then they allowed it to go to Yemen.

The Geopolitical Situation can only get worse with this New Developement.

The North Korean's Are Playing Hard Ball and they Won't back down. They are rapidly getting ALL the cards to soon have a Royal Flush.

We do Live in Incredibly Interesting Times.

Mr Gresham

(01/31/2003; 22:16:42 MDT - Msg ID: 96392)

BB: BW jobs shift

That WAS a good article, and it really had me thinking. Glad I got out of tech back a ways. Know someone who's been inviting me to Bangalore to see his business for several years now -- that's the tech capital of India, I guess. I'm really due to see China/India.

Saw something about the average age of American farmers being 53. Hey! I'm right on target. (I know, I know -- they didn't start at that age.) Think I'll stay close to home and grow some food. Everything else employment-wise is likely to have a lot of "slip betwixt" job interview "and lip."

Markets go 'round and 'round -- the ultimate contrarian play -- now more than ever is the time to be entrepreneurial, but on a small, flexible scale. I would think commodities-related would have the best chances. See what area the money is flowing into, anyway.

Look one level deeper than everyone else, and, as Gary North advises, find a small niche market with some barriers to entry. Market to customers like no one else has marketed to them before. Know your limits; find your niche; and milk it till the cow starts to go dry and/or next bus comes along. No excuse for non-alertness, especially in this age of limitless information.

Learning how to ride markets (accumulation, stong hands, trend-followers, mania, glut, distribution) applies to the markets for your skills as well.

Teaching this to your kids? Well, this would be evolutionary survival at its highest performance!

silvercollector

(01/31/2003; 22:16:55 MDT - Msg ID: 96393)

Trojan

Very astute.

Keep us informed of the Korean situation.

Thanks.

(P.S.: What are your thoughts on gold?)

Black Blade

(01/31/2003; 22:17:36 MDT - Msg ID: 96394)

Party's over, says pioneer analyst

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAF6F9627%2D28D1%2D41BF%2D8109%2D6AB60DF79105%7D&siteid=mktw
Lowry's Desmond sees intense selling round the corner

Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- A pioneering market technician says a fresh bout of intense stock market selling is on its way. Lowry's Reports' Paul F. Desmond is revered for his examinations of supply and demand forces that shape stock market activity. His work on identifying bear-market bottoms and new bull markets coined the term "90-90 downside days" and won the prestigious Charles Dow award. Desmond's work demonstrates that severe downside days, in which 90 percent of all volume and total points gained and lost on the New York Stock Exchange are in the red, must precede a bear-market bottom. Essentially, Desmond says the three-month party is almost certainly over for stock-market optimists.

None of the rallies that lifted the spirits and net worth of investors in September 2001, and July and October of last year, followed a series of intense selling days, he says. "Downside days serve to exhaust the desire to sell, and drive prices down to the kind of bargain levels that attract sustained investor demand," Desmond says. "It looks like we are in for a new round of 90 percent downside days," Desmond tells me. Buying demand, an indicator that measures the so-called breadth of the stock market, last week sank to its lowest point in almost six years. Just as ominous: Selling pressure -- when investors become frustrated "with a prolonged lack of gains and begin to aggressively dump stocks in a desire to beat everyone else to the exit" -- is soaring.

Back in Desmond's world, the few industry groups showing strong so-called "power ratings," the term Lowry's uses to rank sectors by their level of investors' buying demand, include precious metals and non-ferrous metals shares and the defensive areas of electric utilities and drug companies. What's actionable in the increasing wreckage of the North American stock market? In the view of this writer, any investment with a pure exposure to hard assets, especially livestock, certain crops, gold and silver. The only other must-have investment for the coming storm is gold, which, like commodities, has been turning heads as its price logs daily and weekly gains.

Black Blade: Though the article suggests a PM fund, I just a soon have the real deal in hand. That said, I am enjoying the daily comedy routines found on CNBC and CNNfn as they have now gone from outright lies and stock pumping to actually begging and pleading for investors to "jump in" the market. It's been great entertainment and so far I have not been disappointed. Watching the Lemmings (or are they Pavlov's dogs?) get slaughtered on Wall Street has been an interesting study of Darwin's theory of "Natural Selection" in action. Maybe it is somewhat like Pavlov's dogs as when the opening bell rings they salivate anticipating a reward. Hmmm...

Black Blade

(01/31/2003; 22:31:29 MDT - Msg ID: 96395)

U.S. Pension Agency Goes $11 Billion in Red

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A3452-2003Jan30.html
PBGC Hurt by Failing Plans Acquired in '02

Snippit:

The government agency that insures workers' pensions yesterday reported an $11.37 billion loss for last year, the largest in the insurer's 28-year history. The loss at the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. was not in cash spent, but resulted from soaring long-term liabilities following its takeover of several giant failing pension plans, along with poor performance of the agency's stock portfolio. This combination, plus a further boost in liabilities for technical reasons related to current low interest rates, shifted the agency from a $7.73 billion surplus at the end of fiscal 2001 to a $3.64 billion deficit on Sept. 30. In all the agency booked $9.31 billion in losses from failed or failing pension plans, including $7.1 billion from takeovers of the pensions of Bethlehem, National and LTV steel companies.

Black Blade: Uh oh. Oh my. This will only get worse as the economy deteriorates. Add to this all the under funded pension plans that have to be funded this year. It does not look very promising.

Toolie

(01/31/2003; 22:37:43 MDT - Msg ID: 96396)

What Me?

What Me?

I'll be waiting by the mailbox for the Silver Maple to arrive.

I hope I have this right, Thanks to MK for putting up the prizes that generated all the insightful discussion. Thanks to Town Crier for guarding the tone of this site therefore enhancing its usefulness, Thanks to Gandolf The White for great job running the contest. Thanks to all posters for the unusual relevance your labors provide!

Lastly, Thanks to Greenspan, Treasury and elected officials for holding the POG down to a range where I stood a chance. I now release you to pursue your ambitions of the annihilation of the US economy.

ElGordo

(01/31/2003; 23:02:25 MDT - Msg ID: 96397)

Trojan good analysis

http://www.msnbc.com/news/867174.aspMohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the administration may be setting a bad precedent through its handling of the two situations. "If you really want to defend yourself," he said, "develop nuclear weapons, because then you get negotiations, and not military action."
----------
I have also read that N Korea would like to set off a nuke test
sometime soon. That would officially put them in the nuclear
club and make allies scared to take military action.

This destabilizes asia and will start an arms race. China will not
be happy because Japan will start building missiles and bombs.

Very interesting times.

Toolie

(01/31/2003; 23:04:41 MDT - Msg ID: 96398)

Black Blade, Mr. Gresham; Job shift

At age 40 my career as a machine designer is near worthless. I gone from a decent but underpaid job to long term unemployed to considering an entry level cabinet making job.

Companies in my trade, I guess I will still refer to it that way for some time, have exported work and imported temp labor from India. If they loose their job they have 30 days to leave the country, take a guess at what this is doing to wages, where you can find them.

Look at the jobs they say will be unaffected in the business week article, health care, lawyers, real estate. All of these jobs are done at the request of people who have accumulated wealth. where is the wealth created?

There is a huge political shift on the horizon, I intentionally understate this.

Calidor

(01/31/2003; 23:24:25 MDT - Msg ID: 96399)

Trojan - North Korea

http://www.ceip.org/files/projects/npp/resources/ballisticmissilechart.htmTrojan (and other late knights and ladies).

Here's a site with some Ballistic Missile information to add to your aresnal - so to speak. TBMs were something more than a passing interest to me as that was part of my reserve duty in Air Defense. The N. Korean situation has worried me more in a professional sense from troop strengths (Infantry, Artillery, and Special Forces) to quantities of TBMs (possibly nuclear and most certainly chemical weapons).

And did I mention, here's a little-known fact we can thank Clinton and Loral space for and it has to do with the Chinese. Back when Clinton was shaking down high rollers for White House Breakfasts and Lincoln Bedroom pajama parties. Seem the Chinese were having problems in '95-'96 launching satellites into orbit. There was this nasty habit of blowing up after launch or stage separation. After large fiat contributions to the Dems, the skids were greased for Loral to pay a visit to the Chinsese and soon fixed the problem. The down side of that is the relative ease (afterall, it IS Rocket Science) to switch out a satellite for a warhead and drop it on the US. And about the same time, Clinton shifted sale authority of super computers from the State Department to Commerce. Whata Guy!

Calidor

(01/31/2003; 23:38:40 MDT - Msg ID: 96400)

Trojan - more on North Korea

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/index.htmlApologies to all for going WAY off topic but wanted to pass along the Federation of American Scientists site. Guess it goes without saying that the NK PTB don't care about quality of life for its military or civilians.

Snippit-
Nuclear Weapons Program
Current Status
In early October of 2002, Assistant Secretary of State James Kelley informed North Korean officials that the United States was aware that North Korea had a program underway to enrich uranium for use in nuclear weapons. Initially North Korea denied this, but later confirmed the veracity of the US claim. In confirming that they had an active nuclear weapons program, they also declared the Agreed Framework nullified.

The Agreed Framework signed by the United States and North Korea on October 21, 1994 in Geneva agreed that:

North Korea would freeze its existing nuclear program and agree to enhanced International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. Both sides would cooperate to replace the D.P.R.K.'s graphite-moderated reactors for related facilities with light-water (LWR) power plants. Both countries would move toward full normalization of political and economic relations. Both sides will work together for peace and security on a nuclear-free Korean peninsula.
And that both sides would work to strengthen the international nuclear non-proliferation regime.
Prior to the establishment of the Agreed Framework, intelligence sources believe that North Korea could have extracted plutonium from their reactors for use in nuclear weapons-perhaps enough for one or two nuclear weapons.

Nevertheless, it is unclear whether it has actually produced or possesses nuclear weapons due to difficulties in developing detonation devices.

History
North Korea maintains uranium mines with four million tons of exploitable high-quality uranium. In the mid-1960s, it established a large-scale atomic energy research complex in Yongbyon and trained specialists from students who had studied in the Soviet Union. Under the cooperation agreement concluded between the USSR and the DPRK, a nuclear research center was constructed near the small town of Yongbyon. In 1965 a Soviet IRT-2M research reactor was assembled for this center. From 1965 through 1973 fuel (fuel elements) enriched to 10 percent was supplied to the DPRK for this reactor.

In the 1970s it focused study on the nuclear fuel cycle including refining, conversion and fabrication. In 1974 Korean specialists independently modernized Soviet IRT-2M research reactor in the same way that other reactors operating in the USSR and other countries had been modernized, bringing its capacity up to 8 megawatts and switching to fuel enriched to 80 percent. Subsequently, the degree of fuel enrichment was reduced. In the same period the DPRK began to build a 5 MWe research reactor, what is called the "second reactor." In 1977 the DPRK concluded an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA], allowing the latter to inspect a research reactor which was built with the assistance of the USSR.

Toolie

(01/31/2003; 23:40:34 MDT - Msg ID: 96401)

Nafta and gatt

http://www.chattanoogan.com/articles/article_31787.aspSnip;

Our Congressmen & Senators, in the name of "Free Trade", have replaced
and are replacing tariffs, the preferred means of revenue collection of Jefferson & Madison, with an ever increasing burden from our "progressive" income tax, the preferred means of revenue collection of Karl Marx. The claim by Jack Kemp and Rush Limbaugh, some time back, that reducing or eliminating tariffs would be a "tax cut" shows either their ignorance or their deceitfulness. Cutting tariffs has only shifted the tax burden from
importers onto domestic producers and individuals. There is no true "tax
cut" unless spending is also cut. Cutting or eliminating tariffs under these trade agreements has only shifted the revenue collection from the minimally disruptive tariff to the extremely disruptive and destructive domestic income tax. The combination of no tariffs and ever increasing domestic taxation and regulation will continue to drive our industries overseas and further stagnate the economy

---------------

Toolie;

Iraq has what to do with the POG?

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