Your "got a few minutes to write back" is a major work of some scope. You are right that I meant revaluation of gold, not remonitize. My use of the term cataclysmic was not necessarily meant in terms of rate of change, rather the magnitude of the change, although I have been under the belief that when "it" occurs it would do so in a contracted time frame.

Thank you very much for your views. Your essay is one to read a few times to absorb everything. True, everyone must ultimately make their own decision. My own growing understanding, has led me more and more to create safety through my own gold reserves.

Best regards,
timbervision

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030131-fri.htmlRoach's Conclusion:

In my view, the risks of a recessionary relapse are high and rising.

America is back on the Edge.

Trojan: Very interesting article. Compares 1990-91 Period and Economy/Gulf War (1) to today's situation.
History repeating itself ?

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Once you click on the Link above you will be taken to the Main Page. On the right hand side of the page you will see the heading "The Stevenson Moment"

Just below that you will see a link called "Follow That Link" That should take you to the Story.

The Story is at the end of the Daily Commentary for January 31.

It is well worth reading. I was to put it mildly SHOCKED to read "The Stevenson Moment" by Dan Denning

Why ? It tells you all about All the Oil Interests in Iraq.

The Four Major Countries doing Billion Dollar business there now are Russia, China, France and Germany.

The Two Countries doing NO Business there are USA and Britain.

Wow, LOOK at THAT...

The Four Major Countries against War Vs the Two Major Countries for War.

It is NOT called Regime Change. It is called, "OIL CHANGE" :-)

What a World we live in...

And all this time I thought they were in a room talking about SAddam. Silly me.

Listen USA says Russia, Block 14 to Block 80 are ours. You can have Block 110 To 175. NO, says China, Block 110 to 140 was promised to us. And On it goes.

We must Rid Iraq of Weapons Of Mass Destruction.

YEAH SURE...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8385-2003Jan31.htmlWashington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, February 1, 2003

Bill Bowler, a 77-year-old Baptist pastor in Tucson, has been listening to the alarming news from Iraq and North Korea and watching the stock markets swoon. And every time another headline screams war and another certificate of deposit comes due, he adds to the hoard of gold in his safe-deposit box. Most of his and his wife's retirement savings are now in gold.

Such a big bet on gold is risky, financial advisers say. But Bowler is unmoved by the warnings. "I feel safer with my investment in gold," he said. "I can take it out and look at it and see it."

Gold is the pessimist's investment of choice: It rises when the dollars slides, the stock market sinks, the economy slumps and the world descends into war.

No wonder it just hit a six-year high.

--------(from url)--------

Pessimist? Hey, since when is a "realist" called a "pessimist"? Just whenever the reality is bleak, I suppose. Pessimists don't tend to have much hope in general, but most of the gold advocates I have encountered are brimming full with hope. And the fact that gold has reached 6-year highs is merely icing on an already ample cake.

Mmmmmmm, cake...

R.

Multiple tracks of smoke seen, may suspect failure of shuttle during the landing. Major bummer.

At this point (30-some minutes after landing should have happened), NASA is saying Columbia STS-107 is "missing." Last heard from at more than 200,000 feet/ 12,500 mph and no contact since.

The shuttle is a glider while re-entering (i.e., not powered flight). Even with the "crossrange" capability which Air Force had NASA add during the design stage, it still flies -- in the words of a couple astronauts -- "like a brick." There is no way it could have lingered for more than half an hour before landing.

Take a moment and say a prayer.

A tragedy for all involved, to be sure. Yet manned space flight remains an inherently dangerous undertaking, with so many complex variables and so many potential errors or failures to avoid. We take the technology for granted, but it's still like trying to thread a needle and never miss. Every mechanism and technology has its failures.

Ironic that an Israeli was on board, but I find a terrorist link to be incredibly unlikely.

Much can be made of this as another sign of America's deterioration, but such logic is utterly contrived, IMHO.

As the saying goes, if you never fail it means you aren't doing anything.

Let's pray for the families as it best suits us.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$Congratulations to the winners of the contest.
Thought I had it there for a second. Would have shared it with WKY Woodsman. Exciting Contest.

New term for the forum.

Being PRO-GOLD does not mean I am a Doomer,Gloomer or Pessimist.
I am now a Commodity-Monetary Evolutionist.

Dollar back up close to 100.00. Could not have it fall below
98.00 at this time. Strong dollar/Weak dollar. Will they please make up their mind.

Gold. Down below $370.00. Anyone going to sell? HA, HA, HA.

Stock Market 8053. Hold that 8000 level. The bilge pumps are working harder to keep this baby afloat.

Unemployment still 6%?

Interest rates, Stable?

Thanks USAGOLD for the contest. Thanks Gandalf the White for his time and effort in running it so smoothly.

Read your ABC book, MK. Could not put it down till I finished. Its rare I do that. Easy to read and a wealth of info.

Enjoying the posts on the forum.
I ask again. Is Another/FOA on the TRAIL?
Slingshot-----------------------------------<>

goldenpeace sending you regards from Easthampton,MA in the heart of "Happy Valley". Still here (and here) through all the "gold wars", wishing you peace with your physical gold purchased from our gracious propriator MK.
Bowing

With all due respect to those who may have already said this,how about the mining shares pay us the faithful,wonderful investor in real physical gold,platinum or silver.Cant be done you say?Thats right pay us in real physical,deliverable on demand.Then watch the public jump em.There is nothing like holding your own gold.Any company that didnt pay in gold'silver or platinum,would find itself answering questions like,"Why not?You say you mine it."

Soon bank after bank will start giving off warning signals.At this point they are pumping water out of the titanic as fast as the pumps(ppt) can but to no avail.When the failure of confidence in the paper system reaches critical mass the only ones who will sleep well at night will do so on a pillow of physical gold and silver.Get some now,before it runs out and the banks tell us sorry minimum investment is $10,000 for 3 oz of silver and 3 oz of gold.You've got to feel sorry for the little guy,the time to get physical is running out.

re: msg#96411The American public has been dumbed down too much for this to occur. People fully expect to cash in their IRA's, 401k's, CD's, etc.

If they do not have the above; then Plan B would consist of living frugally on Social Security and working part-time at MacDonalds or Walmart

I think it was here that the first news of Columbine (and a couple other shaking events) hit me -- remember that, Leigh? Good to not be alone at times like this.

My reaction -- some bureaucratic hassles were making me waffle on getting my little girl off to softball league sign-up today by the deadline time. No way we're missing that now -- out the door!

Back in 1971, the United States was selling it's gold at the official price then of $32/ounce. But only to non United States citizens. France was bying all they could at the official price, untill the United States stoped this great deal for the rest of the world. Anyone who was on wall street and or financial advisers, who were recommending gold or gold shares at the time were visited by the FBI and then the SEC, to remind them that they could be considered communists. A close friend and financial analyst, who was recommend gold stocks to his clients, was fired by his wall street firm. The reason given was the threat of an investigation by the SEC. I wonder if this MO is being used today to discourage gold share purchases.

Patriarchi

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Lit up with anticipation
We arrive at the launching site
The sky is still dark, nearing dawn
On the Florida coastline

Circling choppers slash the night
With roving searchlight beams
This magic day when super-science
Mingles with the bright stuff of dreams

Floodlit in the hazy distance
The star of this unearthly show
Venting vapours, like the breath
Of a sleeping white dragon

Crackling speakers, voices tense
Resume the final count
All systems check, T minus nine
As the sun and the drama start to mount

The air is charged, a humid, motionless mass
The crowds and the cameras,
The cars full of spectators pass
Excitement so thick, you could cut it with a knife
Technology, high, on the leading edge of life

The earth beneath us starts to tremble
With the spreading of a low black cloud
A thunderous roar shakes the air
Like the whole world exploding

Scorching blast of golden fire
As it slowly leaves the ground
Tears away with a mighty force
The air is shattered by the awesome sound

Like a pillar of cloud, the smoke lingers
High in the air
In fascination, with the eyes of the world
We stare


Toolie:

Lyrics by Neil Peart, Performed by Rush, Mercury Records, Album Signals
Re: Columbia Launch

May the survivors find comfort in the astronauts love of life.

http://www.foxnews.comHeat Tile Damage Main Suspect in Cause of Disaster
Saturday, February 01, 2003
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. ��Excerpt:�"Investigators trying to figure out what destroyed space shuttle Columbia immediately focused on the left wing and the possibility that its thermal tiles were damaged far more seriously than NASA realized by a piece of debris during liftoff.
Just a little over a minute into Columbia's launch Jan. 16, a chunk of insulating foam peeled away from the external fuel tank and smacked into the ship's left wing.
On Saturday, that same wing started exhibiting sensor failures and other problems 23 minutes before Columbia was scheduled to touch down. With just 16 minutes remaining before landing, the shuttle disintegrated over Texas.
Just a day earlier, on Friday, NASA's lead flight director, Leroy Cain, had declared the launch-day incident to be absolutely no reason for concern. An extensive engineering analysis had concluded that any damage to Columbia's thermal tiles would be minor.
"As we look at that now in hindsight ... we can't discount that there might be a connection," shuttle manager Ron Dittemore said on Saturday, hours after the tragedy. "But we have to caution you and ourselves that we can't rush to judgment on it because there are a lot of things in this business that look like the smoking gun but turn out not even to be close."
The shuttle's more than 20,000 thermal tiles protect it from the extreme heat of re-entry into the atmosphere. If the thermal tiles start peeling off in large numbers or in crucial spots, a spacecraft can heat up excessively and plunge to Earth in a shower of hot metal, much like Russia's Mir space station did in 2001.
Dittemore said that the disaster could have been caused instead by a structural failure of some sort. He did not elaborate.
As for other possibilities, however, NASA said that until the problems with the wing were noticed, everything else appeared to be performing fine.
NASA officials said, for example, that the shuttle was in the proper position when it re-entered the atmosphere on autopilot. Re-entry at too steep an angle can cause a spaceship to burn up.
Law enforcement authorities said was no indication of terrorism; at an altitude of 39 miles, the shuttle was out of range of any surface-to-air missile, one senior government official said.
If the liftoff damage was to blame, the shuttle and its crew of seven may well have been doomed from the very start of the mission.
Dittemore said there was nothing that the astronauts could have done in orbit to fix damaged thermal tiles and nothing that flight controllers could have done to safely bring home a severely scarred shuttle, given the extreme temperatures of re-entry....." End snippitt
The Associated Press contributed to this report.

America The Beautiful
Katharine Lee Bates wrote the original version in 1893. She wrote the 2nd version in 1904. Her final version was written in 1913.
Here is a note from Katharine Lee Bates:
"One day some of the other teachers and I decided to go on a trip to 14,000-foot Pikes Peak. We hired a prairie wagon. Near the top we had to leave the wagon and go the rest of the way on mules. I was very tired. But when I saw the view, I felt great joy. All the wonder of America seemed displayed there, with the sea-like expanse."
America the Beautiful - 1913
O beautiful for spacious skies,
For amber waves of grain,
For purple mountain majesties
Above the fruited plain!
America! America!
God shed his grace on thee
And crown thy good with brotherhood
From sea to shining sea!
O beautiful for pilgrim feet
Whose stern, impassioned stress
A thoroughfare for freedom beat
Across the wilderness!
America! America!
God mend thine every flaw,
Confirm thy soul in self-control,
Thy liberty in law!
O beautiful for heroes proved In liberating strife.
Who more than self the country loved
And mercy more than life!
America! America!
May God thy gold refine
Till all success be nobleness
And every gain divine!
O beautiful for patriot dream
That sees beyond the years
Thine alabaster cities gleam
Undimmed by human tears!
America! America!
God shed his grace on thee
And crown thy good with brotherhood
From sea to shining sea!
O beautiful for halcyon skies,
For amber waves of grain,
For purple mountain majesties
Above the enameled plain!
America! America!
God shed his grace on thee
Till souls wax fair as earth and air
And music-hearted sea!
O beautiful for pilgrims feet,
Whose stern impassioned stress
A thoroughfare for freedom beat
Across the wilderness!
America ! America !
God shed his grace on thee
Till paths be wrought through
wilds of thought
By pilgrim foot and knee!
O beautiful for glory-tale
Of liberating strife
When once and twice,
for man's avail
Men lavished precious life !
America! America!
God shed his grace on thee
Till selfish gain no longer stain
The banner of the free!
O beautiful for patriot dream
That sees beyond the years
Thine alabaster cities gleam
Undimmed by human tears!
America! America!
God shed his grace on thee
Till nobler men keep once again
Thy whiter jubilee!

I think Columbine happened shortly before I started lurking and then posting here - I hardly remember it. But after I read your message, I started compiling a list of things that we at the Forum have "watched together:"

The Bank of England giveaway announcement
The Washington Agreement (what a bolt out of the sky!)
The Y2K buildup and non-event
The Nasdaq boom'n'bust
The 2000 election (hi, PH, I'm on your side now!)
Various earthquakes (Sierra Madre, where are you?)
Threats of everything under the sun - from drought to energy shortages to currency collapses (soon!next week!hasn't happened yet!)
Enron
September 11th
Immediate virtual suspension of the Constitution
ORO vs. FOA, resulting in ORO's removal and FOA's withdrawal
War threats and buildup
Gold's gradual rise

Have I left anything out? In the words of Gus McCrae in "Lonesome Dove," "We've had us a party."

Star Spangled Banner is the national anthem.

Remember "tom fumich"? I have been graying these last four years. Good to be with all of you.

Sure, I remember Tom! I wonder if he ever sobered up. It's fun to go back in the archives and read stuff from the long-departed ones. I miss them all. Once I was reading the archives from the fall of 2000 or so, and I read something really eerie, from 714 or someone; something about how the blood of young Americans would someday pay for Mideast oil. That's not an exact quote, but it was something along those lines.

Ole buddy Megatron, if you're reading this, rest assured that you're not forgotten!

http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=75896Snippit:
"The rising gold price has dealt a heavy blow to gold jewellery outlets, which have been nursing big hopes of doing brisk business during the Dubai Shopping Festival (DSF). The international gold price is hovering around $370 per ounce against $273 per ounce a year ago. Gold in Dubai has been around Dh40 per gram for the past few weeks. The situation is more painful as the Gold and Jewellery Group, the umbrella body of more than 400 outlets, is giving away a kilo of gold every day and Dh1 million in cash as the mega prize. Interestingly, Joy Alukkas warns the customers not to wait too long for a big drop in price. The prices have been rising steadily for some time now and the trend is bound to stay quite some time. "Do not expect any substantial drop in the present price in the immediate future and it is advisable for customers to buy before the price finds new highs," he added.

Waverider: Interesting little tidbit out of Dubai - where else can you shop and stand to win a kilo of Gold!

Leigh: Megatron is a friend of mine - I'll make sure he gets your message.

Contest Winners: Congratulations to you all!! And a BIG thank you to MK for hosting and offering the prizes and to Sir Gandalf for being such a WIZARD at managing these fun contests!

As NASA depends upon amature video for clues......regarding Columbia's reentry failure, space officials may recall that a similar lack of real-time telescopic imaging contributed to Challenger's demise.

If NASA had placed real-time, high resolution tracking video units North and South of the launch site, they would have had real-time monitoring of the solid rocket booster [SRB] profiles during Challenger's ascent. With that crucial data, the video feed would have shown controllers the fatal SRB seal blowout early in the lift phase. There was sufficient time and altitude to abort the Challenger mission and thereby save seven lives.

But NASA didn't think to use imaging or their priorities were for telemetry.

Today, NASA is hampered by a lack of high resolution imagery which would shed light on the control status, tile integrity and attitude of Columbia as it traversed the most dangerous part of its journey.

Such telescopic imaging is cheap. Eight-inch Schmidt-Cassegrain telescopes go for about $1,500. Really expensive Maksutovs go for $3,500. Equipped with CCD cameras and altitude and azimuth electronic slewing features, add another $4,000. The agency knows the exact altitude and azimuth relative to any place along the reentry path and therefore could provide several mobile crews with the necessary starting alt-az data to acquire and track the shuttle as it descended from orbit.

The picture of NASA Johnson Space Flight Controllers having to be informed by tourists with vcrs regarding the status of a reentering vehicle and its condition should not be comforting to future astronauts.

greetings forum members.i would like some advice.i have a position established in precious metals.i have a small position established in energy.my dliema in which i ask advice.i have money in 401k from former employer its in sp 500 i know iknow.its been cut in half value in last 3 years.its still in there.i can move it into ira and do what i want.its with vanguard family now.they closed their gold fund,dont ask me why.should i stay in sp 500 once again i have position eastablished in pm.im just asking advice,i make my own decisions.my beliefs in gold and silver if sp doesnt lose money il be happy.pls lets hear your thoughts and be somewhat kind.im still learning

Since remote sensing technology is MUCH better than when I dabbled in it,(1972) I suspect that we know where all(or most) of the mideast oil is located. Therefore, expect announcements soon after seizing Iraq to the effect that new oil deposits have been located and will be aggressively drilled. The oil price will drop below ten bucks/barrel in an attempt to reflate the world economy. The only question I have is: will it be enough? I suspect not. Opinions???????

"...Is the Fed buying shares and futures and indexes to get the stock market up? You bet! How could they not? If they did not, and the economy does get really bad, and I mean "bad" as in Depression and Vast Human Suffering kind of bad"

Cashed out my IRA and bought gold eagles. Even with the taxes and penalties my investment is still up 27%

Good luck with you decision.

Skydog

skydog,thnx im thinking of doing that.man its hard to fold that position alot of what if thinking when u do.is the sp toast has it taken its beaten over last 3 years.has it gotten any upside potential.does it have downside potential still.i know im asking to much from people asking this.i dream of stocks and gold moving together.see someone using their laptop and cell phone driving tech and other stocks while they got a couple ounces of gold in their pocket.thnx

I asked Waverider to send this to you via the USAgold forum. I really appreciate your thoughts. Its funny but I still read the posts and I wondered why you never post anymore? Yes there was a lot of people that don't post anymore. Probably like me, couldn't keep our big mouths shut :):) I hope you and your family are profitting from your gold investments, we argued about gold for so long and now it looks like it may break loose to both of our satisfactions. My friend from Spokane came over to our house today in Vancouver BC and we always marvel at how much alike people are when you strip away the veneer of politics and religion. Even though you and I may not have agreed at times, I think our common interest in gold and personal integrity and individual freedom shows we are more alike than we would have believed when we started posting at our gracious hosts forum a few years ago. If you come to the Vancouver Gold show make sure and post when, so I can buy you lunch. Your friend in Canada ... Kirk.

Normally gold trades on the Hong Kong exchange in a shortened Saturday session, however, the exchange is closed until Tuesday for Lunar New Year. Still the tickers show gold up at $369.50 spot. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

Hi 21mabry,

It's time to stop wishful thinking and start some logical analysis of the current situation...

One example to focus on is Black Blade's post of yesterday (msg#:96394) to see what's coming. This from one of the best technical analysts around.

Another is misetich's post a few days ago of Stephen Roach's comments (misetich msg#: 96188), one of the few economists who are still rationally thinking in the US.

With good information, decisions can be made alot easier...

Cheers.

But what determines a currency s international role? Jeffry Frieden, a professor at Harvard University, argues that four factors are important: stability, which reduces the risk of holding assets denominated in that currency; a strong exchange rate, to avoid capital losses for those holding the currency; deep and liquid financial markets which enable holders to diversify or liquidate their holdings; and strong regulatory backing to minimise the possibility of crises (and ensure that the markets remain deep and liquid).

ought to tell that idea to your friendly senator and DEMAND they do it."Columbia is lost, there are no survivors."

Geez! Mr. President. Dont say THAT. Not on the eve of the dagor laureamorna, (oh, you meant the shuttle, and not the nation... well that's different)

Now that Dan GOLDin is OUT, I hope this wasn't a case of bad vibes or revenge on his sucessor O'Keefe. I ought to be careful and not try to read too much into what's going on here. They burned the flagship today (yesterday). I hope that was entirely by accident. I'm sure Osama been Sulkin would like to take credit. This has been a very sad day even if for the time being we were able to get away from our morbid fascination with the markets and the WOT and the pending action in Iraq and the kabuki show at the UN, and for all the folks dawn in texsus it's hard to get away from it with all the bits and pieces turnin up.

Anyways, I hope they get on with the next mission and don't spend too much time gefinger pointig. I'm curious to find out if there's gold on mars... water too of course.

A moment of reflection for Columbia and her galant crew...

http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=5593.topic
Snippit:

NORTH AMERICA'S 10-YEAR RUN of cheap natural gas has ended, and prices are likely to climb further until thin supplies are fattened and some demand is choked off. The implications for the U.S. economy could be significant. Though gas prices have been rising fairly steadily for a year, the number of rigs drilling in the U.S. has fallen, and those that are operating are producing less gas. Some in the industry think new rigs could go up this spring, boosting supply, but others say prices won't ease until demand drops. Prices may have to rise as high as $8 per million British Thermal Units before some gas-intensive manufacturers close and people lower their thermostats in winter.

Matthew Simmons, of gas-industry investment bank Simmons & Co. International, thinks that the price spike of 2000 already brought out the last of the $2 gas. "Nobody in the industry thought prices would stay above $3 before 2015, so nobody prospected. The cupboard is empty," says Simmons, who compares the current gas situation to the oil crisis of the 1970s. For now, U.S. gas storage has fallen to an alarmingly low level thanks to colder-than-normal weather so far this winter. There's almost no way, given current gas-field depletion, that the country will refill storage facilities sufficient for next winter, Simmons contends. New supplies could be found off the Pacific and Atlantic coasts and in the eastern Gulf, he adds. Others in the industry point to supplies from the Arctic Circle, to new pipelines from the under-exploited Rocky Mountain region, and to the development of liquefied natural gas imports from other continents. But these solutions would take years to come on line, requiring changes to environmental rules and huge investments in infrastructure. Near term, the solution may have to come from the demand side. Greater consumption of natural gas by U.S. power plants now competes with putting gas into storage during the summer. Those generating stations, to the degree that they are needed to avoid blackouts, will be able to pass along higher gas costs in electricity prices. Other gas-sensitive U.S. industries, such as chemicals and glass, can't necessarily do that, because they compete in a global market and natural gas remains cheap in most of the rest of the world. The industries most sensitive to gas and power prices -- fertilizer and aluminum -- have already largely been knocked out of the U.S. For the rest, Simmons says, a wholesale gas price of up to $5 isn't high enough to cripple industrial demand.


Black Blade: As I have been saying. Now Barron's is catching on and before long the rest of the US will feel the pinch capping any economic recovery hopes. "Game Over"

http://money.independent.co.uk/personal_finance/invest_save/story.jsp?story=374634If I had to give a review of this article, there's not enough space on the internet to accommodate the number of times I would need to type the word "crap" to describe it.

Maybe someone else as articulate as Miner49er or Belgian can make short work of it, but really, any response is beneath us all.

On second thought, I'm sorry I wasted this much space on it already.

I guess ultimately it's good for a laugh, except for the fact that somebody out in the real would will probably buy into this nonsense just because it's appearing in mainstream media. It's a sickening display of media disservice to the public. I pity the fool who wrote it even while I laugh at the underlying desperate motivation implied by it, and moereso sympathize with those who by it shall be influenced to shy away from the world's singular most prudent investment at this time. Oh well, it's a big boy's world... grow up fast or else cry a little.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Okay, so what is this game over B.S.? You are a pretty well clued in guy living in Colorado or Wyoming, I just can't keep track. Game over? I feel very good about my bug out place, where the rest of the world can go to hell in a basket, but I think I can survive. Not sure I want to do that, but it is all part of my self-sufficiency capability. But game over? It is very easy to tell the people that log on here that the jig is just about up and I hope you have your P.M.'s and all the other things suggested by the Millenium Ark. We are all believers, I hope that all take your message to heart, but many won't. The "game" is never over, the rules just change.
We had a former partner of mine and her husband over this evening for fondue. I was promoting gold and lo and behold they both agreed that they would start purchasing gold. Nothing more needed to be said. There is a new game in town. It is not over.

Quite emotional aren't you? I would suggest that the "Game" is the constant bleating of "economic recovery" as far as Washington and Wall Street are concerned. It is more and more difficult to lure in Lemmings with promises of some economic miracle when the rising cost of energy drives out businesses, leads to higher unemployment, saps corporate earnings, hits consumers in the pocketbook, and eventually to high inflation. No energy or no "cheap energy" and there is no economy to speak of. Yes � "Game Over" Just because we don't play their "game" does not mean that they will attempt to keep playing theirs even though from here on it's a losing proposition. I look forward to it as an objective study on human behavior as it all comes unraveled. It should be "interesting".

- Black Blade

As Bush and his minions of oil executives are
moving to expand the war against Iraq. And Mr. Blair(aka known as the american hemorhoides in the Arab press) is right behind him, gold has rocketed into space. If you read the newspaper today, again no mention of gold. A wise old friend who made a lot of money in commodities (truly an exception) would look at todays gold chart and say, look at the strength in the market to push the price to this level. He was right, all the press says is stay out, sell,
to high, and the price of gold rises and rises.
I want to thank wall street and the news reporters of today, for making it so easy to make money in the Gold market.

By Geoffrey Lean in Washington
26 January 2003
Gigantic dust clouds swirling over China are threatening the world's most populous country with the first-ever "ecological meltdown", experts here warn.

The clouds � which stretch for thousands of miles over Asia and have even reached across the Pacific to North America � are rising from a rapidly growing dust bowl in northern China that far outstrips the notorious one in the United States in the 1930s.

It threatens to drive up the price of food and greatly increase starvation worldwide, and could lead to tens of millions of desperate Chinese environmental refugees.

"No country has ever faced a potential ecological catastrophe on the scale of the dust bowl now developing in China," says Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute, based in Washington. "Merely grasping its dimensions and consequences poses a serious analytical challenge."

Dust storms have been recorded in China for at least 2,700 years, but they are now increasing alarmingly both in size and in number. The Chinese Meteorological Agency says there were just five major storms in the country in the whole of the 1950s. This rose to 23 in the 1990s. But the first two years of this decade have almost equalled this figure already, with 20.

The storms � which peak in late winter and early spring � can blot out daylight in Beijing and other cities, make it hard for millions of people to breathe and destroy hundreds of thousands of acres of crops. They have closed schools and airports in South Korea and Japan, and caused a Korean car factory to shrink-wrap its vehicles as soon as they come off the production line to stop them being spoiled.

They have even occasionally crossed the Pacific: one in April 2001 covered the west of North America from Canada to Arizona with dust.

The clouds sweep up millions of tons of precious topsoil from Chinese fields and pastures. Gone in a single day, the soil will take centuries to replace. But this is just the most dramatic symptom of the accelerating spread of deserts across the country, which is home to nearly one in every four people on the planet.

Between 1994 and 1999, the country's Environmental Protection Agency reports, the Gobi Desert expanded by 20,240 square miles, to within just 150 miles of Beijing, New, smaller, areas of desert are erupting all over the country. In all, this "desertification" is affecting 40 per cent of the country's land. Partly as a result, harvests � which more than quadrupled between 1950 and 1998 � have fallen sharply, even as China's population and appetite grow.

In Ganzu province alone, some 4,000 villages are facing being submerged by drifting sands, and the Earth Policy Institute believes that throughout the country tens of millions of people may be forced off their land, dwarfing the migrations of the "Okies" from the American dust bowl.

The institute blames "over-cultivation, overgrazing, over-cutting and over-pumping" for the escalating catastrophe. Marginal land is being increasingly pressed into cultivation, but quickly turns to dust under the strain. The country's 290 million sheep and goats strip the vegetation off grazing lands. Cutting down forests removes the trees that bind soil to the ground. And excessive pumping of water from underground acquifers dramatically lowers water tables, drying out the earth.

China is belatedly trying to get to grips with the crisis. It is planting 26 million acres � a tenth of its grain-growing area � with trees. But many die because the soil is already too thin; and, say critics, too many are being planted around Beijing so as to try to "green" the city � and clean the air � before the 2008 Olympics.

As the crisis continues, Mr Brown predicts, the world will soon feel the pinch. So far China has compensated for its falling harvests by eating stocks, but soon it will have to buy massive amounts of grain on world markets. He warns: "Grain prices could double � impoverishing more people in a shorter period of time than any event in history. It would create a world food economy dominated by scarcity rather than by surpluses, as has been the case over most of the last half a century."

situation ive heard about.guys got a ton of kugerands i dont know him.but he keaps bringing in 24 at a time and selling them.is this considered structuring by irs.i know the cash reporting requirments.man all these rules.feels like im standing on hill in a mountain of dreams

..this is enough to start a brawl in itself.

-quote-

"Stunned World Grieves Over Shuttle Disaster

Most nations have a reason to grieve for their own--see link

IRAQ:
"We are happy that it broke up," government employee Abdul Jabbar al-Quraishi said. "God wants to show that his might is greater than the Americans. They have encroached on our country. God is avenging us," he said. "

(Thanks to G-E poster 8:50am)

Or rather State of the World Address, as Bill Buckler put it in his latest Privateer bi-weekly update.

Quoting from memory the I found the following of interest:

Political promises internally to improve education, solve Medicare, grow the economy, create more jobs, invent non-existant hydrogen cars and on, and on, and on by political fiat.
... And internationally a welfare/warfare plan of immense magnitude. The means, of course, to deliver the political ends are the American People. If that's a correct assumption, then the aims towards private ends of individuals (as stated by The Constitution) have been superceded. ... Serfs live like that.

... And from the GWB Address: "Once again, we are called to defend the safety of our people and the hopes of all mankind. We excercise power without conquest and we sacrifice for the liberty of strangers."

That was probably true and morally acceptable in WWI and II, though since then, and particularily since the end of the cold war the moral justification has become - to say the least - questionable.
What strikes me here as on the edge of absurd is the fact in the last GWB quote "we sacrifice for the liberty of strangers." - Sounds like, we sacrifice the liberty of our own American Citizens to the benefit of the liberty of strangers.

Who deserves this kind of sacrifice? Certainly not the Americans - and I'd guess sonn to liberated people of the
globe may not be equally happy being liberated either.

It reminds me of a pretty cynical Latin teacher I've had at my final exams, as he's given me a brief sentence to translate, which read: The prayer of every Austrian between 1945 and 1955 was - "Lord, please be so kind as to liberate us from our liberators, which have liberated us from our liberators!" ... (as an afterthought the dates in Latin XIXVX almost broke my neck, as the cynic wanted me to put 'em back into Latin).

... Ok, the means are total Keynesian and how this will end has already been proven many a time the "Austrians" ... in total economic devastation.

Go physical to protect your wealth and yourself ... cb2

PS: @ MK - St. Moritz today - Super G - Gold - Steff Eberharter - Silver - tie: Bode Miller/Herminator - great stuff. Great event - and regards FRR

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/2717939.stmDefence Secretary Geoff Hoon says Saddam Hussein "can be absolutely confident" the UK is willing to use nuclear weapons "in the right conditions".

Speaking on BBC One's Breakfast with Frost Mr Hoon said the UK reserved the right to use the weapons "in extreme self defence".
______________
"Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice!"
Goldwater 1964

George Orwell where are you when we need you?

Sorry for not editing - looks like my typing prowess is at a reverse ratio to my mind - or even the other way around.

Apologies, though, I hope you get my drift, anyhoo ... cb2

"In a world of universal deceit......speaking the truth becomes a revolutionary act". George Orwell --1984.

By this definition,

Everybody here is a card-carrying revolutionary.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030202wo01.htm

[�]
Economic situation deteriorating

With Koizumi lacking both a sense of crisis and the appropriate policies to tackle deflation, the economic situation has worsened since his inauguration as prime minister.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average has fallen from the 14,000 level immediately after the prime minister commenced his term in office in April 2001 to the 8,300 level, with the market value of stocks listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange dropping from 382 trillion yen to 237 trillion yen as of Thursday.

This means that 145 trillion yen of the people's "assets" have been wiped out over the period of one year and nine months since the launch of the Koizumi administration.
[�]
According to the Financial Services Agency, the total amount of bad loans held by the major commercial banks was about 18 trillion yen as of March 31, 2001. The amount increased to about 26.7 trillion yen as of March 2002 and about 23.9 trillion yen as of the end of September 2002 under the Koizumi administration.
[�]
Takuro Morinaga, UFJ Research Institute chief researcher, said: "The Koizumi Cabinet's failed policies have aggravated deflation, but the prime minister didn't show any remorse in his policy speech. The economy will fall into an unrecoverable state unless the prime minister changes his policy by introducing an inflation target, for example."
++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Koizumi is being pressured hard to inflate rapidly. This action will galvanize Japanese gold bugs into serious buying action.

Hold onto your hats!

Let me see if I have this correct. Last year the U.S. Treasury Dept went before Congress panting and pining to have the US debt ceiling raised. This is common nowdays because Congress spends money like they have it, which they don't. Congress raised the debt limit 450 billion to $6.45 Trillion. (Golly, I like the sound of that number. Don't you? Sounds so...imposing, 6.45 trillion.)


Ok, The official U.S. deficit last year ran approximately $150 billion, but now, the treasury dept. says they are within about 10 billion of bumping up against that new higher debt ceiling. Question, what happened to the $300 billion,that made its way into the accumulated debt but wasn't a deficit item? Any guesses? Come on, those of you still working--wake up! Could it be the Social Security Surplus being spent for day to day government operations, in an attempt to make a terrible situation appear less terrible? That spent SS surplus is then added to the accumulated debt? (Because they do intend to pay it back--right?)HaHaHa! Do they think, we think, they're serious? HaHaHa!

Everytime I begin to think about the demographic shift that will take place late in this decade; the one where we spoiled baby boomers waddle up to the trough to gourge ourselves on Ponzi scheme money, only to find out it's not there like it was supposed to be, it prompts me to take in hand more pieces of Gold or Silver to the level that I feel I can afford at the moment!

Goldendome

With natural gas depleting at an alarming rate, and the demand increasing will we see our energy demands reverting back to 19th century methods,ie coal?

I witness this housing boom in Vancouver B.C. area and all homes are connected to the gas system as well many include gas fireplaces. The greenhouse industry was crippled with the last natural gas spike. There is this underlying ignorance or should I say mind set that there will always be plentiful natural gas supply at a reasonable price.

Will coal ever have a place again as an energy source beyond the power generation - heavy industrial sector, or is it different this time?

Will we be able to depend on the "grid"? Dark visions tell me this may be folly.

Please excuse this semi off topic post, just going thru my
survivor list and thought maybe a couple of bags of coal might be good along with my other stashes.

Again I say:
** fobjob (2/1/03; 21:31:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 96426)
Prediction.......
Since remote sensing technology is MUCH better than when I dabbled in it,(1972) I suspect that we know where all(or most) of the mideast oil is located. Therefore, expect announcements soon after seizing Iraq to the effect that new oil deposits have been located and will be aggressively drilled. The oil price will drop below ten bucks/barrel in an attempt to reflate the world economy. The only question I have is: will it be enough? I suspect not. Opinions??????? **
p.s.
Another question: Will reflation work at all?

Goldendome: Where's the 300 billion? My guess is that half of it is due to the fact that the 4th quarter is not a real heavy quarter for incoming cash. Kind of like seasonal work, and likewise for the first quarter, as people with refunds file early and those that owe wait as long as they can. The Gov. has to borrwo more in the winter than the spring due to tax receipts.

The other half has probably been budget busting, but they will "account" over that one. Losing 150 billion in the federal budget is easy.

Sector: Can't find that darn card anywhere to identify myself. Would a gold maple (sorry - gold eagle, can't be too revolutionary) do just as well?? (Smile)

Pizz

http://www.observer.co.uk/comment/story/0,6903,886595,00.htmlAn Interesting Read about a Potential war with Iraq and its implications for the price of oil and effects on the economy.

Wonder how Spot Gold will open tonight ?

It should be an interesting week.

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.aspExcellent analysis!
***Snip follows***
The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp, the federal agency providing insurance for 44 million private-sector pensions, (according to the Washington Post) "yesterday reported an $11.37 billion loss for the last year, the largest in the insurer's 28-year history." This "shifted the agency from a $7.73 billion surplus to a $3.64 billion deficit." The unfolding pension shortfall debacle encompassing companies, state and local municipalities, and the federal government is one of the more intractable consequences of the protracted Bubble. It is also an issue that will incite calls for "reflation," a seductive elixir that will only further poison the patient. If only stock prices could return to previous levels; then there would be plenty of "money" for future retirees. Yet more money and Credit will not provide the comfortable retirement lifestyle promised to our aging workforce. Actually, the developing pension quagmire provides a solid argument against the inflationary status quo. The problem is only worsened by more consumption, higher housing prices, and a weaker dollar. The only possible solution is sound domestic investment and a stable currency providing the means of producing and trading for the goods and services to sustain our high standard of living.
***end of snip***

A lot of good news bits here like the one above, but each one is only a single brick in the wall. The analysis starts about 2/3 of the way down and puts it all together so that the gestalt truly hits you like brick wall.

Enjoy.

Every Saurday morning, my one treat for the week is an extremely large mug of good Columbian coffee laced with brown sugar and then listen to Puplava's broadcast over at Financial Sense.

This last week he had on Prechter. To say the least, it was quite the interview, and more psycological between Puplava doing his best to try to get Pretcher to back off his Elliot wave vision of gold still going to go down, and Pretcher crawfishing around and sticking to his deflation senario.

Prechter comes across, at least to me, as a very shallow thinker (we'd blow him off this forum in about a day) and one that has been short gold for the last year and still averaging up his short positions (and trying to sell his book to cover) - and sweating bullets doing it, cause it sure looks like he's wrong.

One thing I learned many years ago, having interviewed hundreds of employees, customers, etc., only a pure psycopath can hide fear in his speach and speech patterns.

Puplava could not get much of a pro-gold answer out of Pretcher, but Prechter had the abject ring and tone to his voice of one scared puppy. I'd have paid to listen to the broadcast if Sinclair had done the interview.

I think we're right.

Pizz

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jan2003/nf20030131_3102.htmSnip:

HISTORIC DEFICIT. Most worrisome is that war could turn the dollar decline into a rout, sending interest rates skyrocketing and equity prices plunging. Indeed, the day after Bush's State of the Union speech, the dollar recorded its 11th drop in 12 days. The economy is extremely vulnerable to a dollar decline, since America has never been so dependent on foreign capital. The U.S. current-account deficit, the broadest measure of trade including investment flows, is the biggest in 200 years, according to economists at UBS Warburg. The risk that war may spark a run on the dollar is the largest macroeconomic threat to the economy.
********
HARSH LESSON. Britain's experience during the Suez Crisis of 1956 is instructive. Despite a current-account surplus, the value of Britain's currency was under speculative pressure. Traders were betting that Britain would abandon sterling parity with the dollar, which had been set at $2.80 in 1949. Egypt then nationalized the Suez Canal in July, seizing control from an international consortium.

Britain, together with France and Israel, intervened militarily to take back the canal. But the U.S. government didn't back the action. Neither did the U.N. Britain found itself in a full-fledged currency crisis. It quickly agreed to pull out of Suez to get needed financial support from the International Monetary Fund.

Like all historical examples, the parallels are limited. Still, "the 'takeaway' from the Suez crisis is that unilateral political/military action can sometimes be compromised by global capital flows," says David Bowers, chief global investment strategist at Merrill Lynch. "It is one thing to attract capital to fund a private-sector, tech-inspired, capital-expenditure boom. It is quite another to fund increased military spending."

The White House would be well served to take note that the mood in the financial markets is dark. And nowhere is the tension greater than in the world's currency markets.

*******
Misetich

US economy is performing "as well" as it is due to lavish military spending and homeland security -
However, this type of spending is unproductive - and astute investors are aware
No matter the constant rhetoric of a strong US $ - the game is over - with 16,000 tons of CB's gold gone-

Disagreements between the world two Economic Superpowers does not bode well for the US as it requires constant re-investments to fund its needs -

Got gold?

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/brochure/infocard01.htmI'd like to respond to your question to Black Blade. I spent 35 years working for a company, B&W, whose primary business was designing and building coal fired steam generators for industrial and utility power generation. I also grew up in a home in New Jersey that my father built in 1936 that was heated by coal. I remember the coal delivery truck backed up to the basement window where the coal shute filled our bin with shiny black Pennsylvania hard coal. We had a furnace with an automatic screw coal feeder and I don't recall any discomfort in that house. Ashes were minimal and were generally scattered in our Victory Garden.

Fast forward 60 years and nearly everyone has forgotten or dismissed coal as a serious energy source. But it still produces half of our electric power and it could become the raw material for cleaner fuels such as oil and gas. In my opinion it is far more likely to become a clean energy source than any other natural resource including renewables.

Think of it this way; a ton of low sulfur eastern bituminous coal delivered to the shore of the Ohio River can be purchased for about $30. This ton of coal contains about 25mmbtu which is the energy equivalent of 4 barrels of crude oil or 25mmcf of natural gas. So coal, on an energy eqivalent basis is 1/4 the cost of oil and gas. The US has more coal reserves than the ME has oil. Western coal is even cheaper and more likely to be the energy source of the future.

I agree that most of us will not revert to coal burning but don't be surprised if coal is the main course of the future energy menu.

Cheers
Boilermaker

You say: "Let me see if I have this correct. Last year the U.S. Treasury Dept went before Congress panting and pining to have the US debt ceiling raised. This is common nowdays because Congress spends money like they have it, which they don't. Congress raised the debt limit 450 billion to $6.45 Trillion. (Golly, I like the sound of that number. Don't you? Sounds so...imposing, 6.45 trillion.)" and "Ok, The official U.S. deficit last year ran approximately $150 billion, but now, the treasury dept. says they are within about 10 billion of bumping up against that new higher debt ceiling. Question, what happened to the $300 billion,that made its way into the accumulated debt but wasn't a deficit item? Any guesses? Come on, those of you still working--wake up! Could it be the Social Security Surplus being spent for day to day government operations, in an attempt to make a terrible situation appear less terrible? That spent SS surplus is then added to the accumulated debt? (Because they do intend to pay it back--right?)HaHaHa! Do they think, we think, they're serious? HaHaHa!"

--Just the very concept of government is itself already a corruption.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jan2003/nf20030130_7199.htmSnip:

Fringe thinking? Hardly. The suspicion that George W. Bush's showdown with Saddam Hussein is "all about oil" isn't just a fixation of the American left. It's gaining adherents among the European intelligentsia and in the Arab world. "Washington says it wants to eliminate any threat of interruption of the flow of oil, to ensure that it will be accessible to U.S. oil companies," said British Labor Party politician Alice Mahon on Jan. 22. "A different and more compliant government in Iraq would make that possible."
............
HIGH ANXIETY. Since the U.S. military would control Iraq's oil and gas deposits for some time, U.S. companies could be in line for a lucrative slice of that business. They may snag some drilling rights, too. "The oil-service industry is pretty much American-dominated," says an exec at one U.S. company. That means outfits such as Halliburton (HAL ) and Baker Hughes (BHI ), as well as construction giant Bechtel Group, could feel just as victorious as the U.S. Special Forces troops.

The mere prospect of a U.S. presence in the region troubles the French and Russians -- both key to the U.N. drive to head off war. The French have long been a major player in developing Iraqi fields. And the Russians, via companies such as Lukoil, are angling for a piece of the action. They, too, are worried about anything that causes crude-oil prices to fall. The war "is totally about oil," says a top executive at France's TotalFinaElf. Adds Simon G. Kukes, chief executive of Russia's Tyumen Oil: "I don't see much room for Russian oil companies" in postwar Iraq.
**********
Misetich

Its not about oil Bush says - but the majority of the world doesn't buy it -
TRUST - US is on the verge of losing Trust amongst its long time allies who have provided the US with the necessary investment inflows to keep the juggernaut going - Things have changed - TRUST has been lost -

Saudis have reputadly pulled the plug and billions of $ have flown back away from the US -

The Turks are resisting US pressure for a large contingency of armed personnel

The Russians are dumping US $

Germany and France have a taken a stand publicly

TRUST has been lost

Got gold?

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals' founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:

"[M]uch of this issue is devoted to oil, inflation, international politics and gold. . . . . Though the dollar continued to rise against most international currencies during the past month, most currencies ( including the dollar) were depreciating against real goods. . . . AND IT IS THE TREND THAT HAS ECONOMISTS CONCERNED. Crude oil, which must be purchased with dollars, is being blamed as the chief culprit. When the dollar price of oil rises, it fans the inflationary fires of nearly every nation in the world. All of this could at some point inspire a dollar rebellion among the nations of the world, with both oil producers and oil consumers capable of finding fault with the dollar simultaneously . . . . In such a case gold, of course, would become one of the primary beneficiaries and the dollar could go into a tailspin."

Take note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

News & Views is available to our clientele only. However, the latest issue is just back from the printer and available to prospective gold investors who request an INFORMATION PACKET on one-time only basis. We invite your request.

If you would like to get a feel for the thinking that forms the basis for market conclusions like the one featured above, take advantage of the offer to include THE ABCs of GOLD INVESTING: PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH THROUGH PRIVATE GOLD OWNERSHIP. A prompt with ordering information will come up after you submit your request for the INFORMATION PACKET.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jan2003/nf20030130_2702.htmSnip:

Plug in real numbers, and near-term deficits will top $300 billion for years to come. Bush's own budget, due out next week, will pretty much concede those estimates.

HIGHER, HIGHER. Most troubling, this isn't likely to be a short-term deficit that will correct itself once the economy gets back on track. The CBO figures growth will average a healthy 3.2% a year over the next decade. It's a pretty good rate -- but not nearly enough to push back the rising sea of red ink.

Here's the rub: The CBO excludes those new long-term promises that Bush and many in Congress are pitching. For example, while Bush says Medicare reform, including a new drug benefit, would cost $400 billion over the next decade, Democrats want to spend hundreds of billions more than that. And the real price is likely to be much higher than Bush claims.

The President's own budget, due out next week, will also propose additional tax cuts not included in his ballyhooed stimulus plan. Just one -- permanently repealing the estate tax -- would empty the Treasury of more than $50 billion a year. And then there's the price of fixing the alternative minimum tax, which, if not scaled back, would clobber one-third of all taxpayers by the end of the decade. That fix would cost more than $500 billion.

THE HOLE TRUTH. Bush's calculations have lots more omissions. But let's step back for the broader view. A couple of years ago, policymakers talked about wiping out the $3.4 trillion national debt by the end of the decade -- and they were serious. Now, some analysts fear the U.S. is headed for a $6 trillion national debt. Yet the President told Congress in his address, "We will not pass along our problems to other...generations."

In an effort to inoculate the White House against its own, shockingly high deficit numbers, Budget Director Mitch Daniels has been making the rounds, dribbling out the bad news and insisting these deficits are nothing to worry about. In one interview with The Washington Post, Daniels said getting back to fiscal balance should be a priority. And he added, "We can do it in a year or two. All we'd have to do is limit spending growth to inflation and undertake no new initiatives." Sounds like a great idea. Too bad nobody told his boss.
*********
Misetich

The "productivity miracle" - new paragigm - new economy - rosy surplus projections have all turned to ashes

What is keeping up the US $? - Caution: When staring on the abyss - don't look down

Got gold?

Thank you Sir for posting Bill Buckler's comments... I was interested in his words and became a subscriber a few months ago - excellent commentary on the state of play in the world today.

I was also in his neighborhood on holidays in January without even knowing it - meeting him personally and having a chat would sure have been fascinating...

Regards.

"tellin' myself it's not as hard, hard, hard as it seems..."?

Maybe you could do your thesis on "Musical Alchemy: Golden Themes in Lyrics of Led (Zeppelin)"

Thoughts while sitting outside a boarded-up K-Mart yesterday, watching dozens of new-looking SUVs go by:

Renting, Equity and Liquidity.

Renting is what most people do, even with their mortgages at 90% LTV. Moving and/or selling (liquidating) wipes out any equity.

Equity is owning enough of your house/car/metal to get something out of it in liquidation. (PM = 100% equity)

Liquidity is the ability to go either way: Enough cash (or metallic money) in hand to pay rent (in a down asset market), or buy into equity (in a up asset market).

Renting is part of your P&L (profit & loss) statement, equity is in your balance sheet. Liquidity is the part of your balance sheet that keeps you from having to liquidate other assets you'd like to hang onto through a down market.

Since you can't control all economic times, the occasional (or secular) bad P&L years need liquidity to get through.

Pizz: My impression from Prechter's book was of the irresistable secular downturn in money aggregates that will come from the low-quality pumping up of quantity that's been done since, well, since the Fed started. He really left me with the whiff of "paper burning" that we talk about here. All types of paper, in all asset classes...until the bottom is found.

I just think he hasn't reckoned fully with the effect of a Fed willing to undermine the potential value of its proprietary product, the Dollar. (Will/can other dollar-holders somehow take over the controls and right the ship as the Fed throws stability to the winds? Doubt it.)

So, as the flight to liquid assets snowballs, those liquidating out of declining assets will find themselves getting out of the asset frying pan and into the Dollar fire. They will quickly try to slide on over, ahead of others, to a money that is not being undermined.

While competition on prices will send them plummeting, competition between value-holding moneys will also leave one man standing...

Get liquidity.

Your quote from the GWB speech---"Once again, we are called to defend the safety of our people and the hopes of all mankind."---Methinks his speechwriter watches too much Star Trek.

Remember: Physical gold transcends lifetimes.

Noble1

NOTE:
No Link: Doesn't work. I tried it.

White House Warns Against Moving Fuel Rods
by Joo Yong-joon (midway@chosun.com)

The White House said Sunday regarding the news reports that United States reconnaissance satellites observed North Korean trucks seemingly moving fuel rods from Yongbyo on Friday, any activity to start reprocessing fuel rods would be considered as provocation intending to threaten and menace international society.

The US State Department also said if the report were true, "it would be very serious development of the situation."

The New York Times reported Friday that a wide range of activity had been seen during January and US intelligence analysts concluded fuel rods might be being moved, or delivered to the reprocessing facility.

Although the Bush administration has not officially confirmed such a report, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said that such activity would isolate North Korea more from international society, calling for peaceful resolution of the current situation.

US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher also mentioned that if there were any movement of fuel rods, it would be "a very serious development of the situation and North Korea was heading in the wrong direction again.

Trojan: The Bush administration just doesn't get it IMHO.

It is like telling North Korea what to do next. They surely will START moving Fuel Rods now if they haven't started already.

What can Bush do about it now ? Nothing at this moment in time.

I expect this warning will draw a response from North Korea within days and it will ADD to World Tensions.

If I were North Korea I would just happen to reply on Wednesday as Powell is at the UN presenting his Evidence on Iraq.

This might start to also have some effect on the POG as it appears to really be reaching the Serious Stage before Resolution or Non Resolution.

I remember my grandparents used to heat with coal. One side used to have a bin filled every year and burned it in a cast iron oven and the other side had was as boilermaker said, loaded into a basement bin that fed into a furnace. I occasionally smell the burning coal late at night as neighbors are heating their homes. However, I know many communities (if not most) have ordinances against the burning of coal or wood either all year round or during certain times of the year (usually when it's cold and needed most). Then there are the politically connected fringe elements who are against exploitation all forms of energy at anytime from anywhere.

The reason NG is the desired fuel source is the low emissions of so-called "greenhouse gasses" and the Federal and state restrictions on power generation. Coal-fired generation would be cheap and plentiful as there are enough domestic reserves to last for a few centuries in the US. However, the environmental restrictions and limited "carbon credits" available make an expansion on coal-fired power generation unlikely. That is why nearly every new power plant is NG-fired. Clean coal technology is still in its infancy and there is the possibility that coal fuel liquids may eventually become cost effective as the POO rises. However, as a large scale electricity generation source coal is under a lot of environmental and political pressure.

I would guess when the US consumer and US business have their backs up against the wall as the NG sources become less accessible we will see restrictions against coal (and nuclear) relaxed. Either way the era of "cheap energy" is over � dead and gone for all practical purposes even though oil prices may retract after Iraq � the problem is that oil is rarely used for power generation and even then only certain grades are acceptable. Another problem is that fuel switching is not an option with most older and certainly not with new NG-fired power plants. As I live in a more accepting community with abundant coal supply I could easily use coal as a heating and cooking source so my options are much better than say someone in LA, Chicago, or NY. I used to load a few coal chunks or wood in a cast iron stove for heat and cooking in Nevada and Idaho with no problem. If you have access and a way to use coal then a supply of coal would probably not be a bad idea for your survival plan.

- Black Blade

Ari, let me put it this way :
Tell anyone out there, the following, and wait for his/her reactions...if any :
- The US$ is a world's debt-paper that reached the end of its timeline.
- Oil will be paid in euro.
- POG declines, because there's a shortage of it.
- Gold will explode into the thousands of euro - dollars.
- etc...

Nobody takes the serious interest-effort to analyse "WHY" POG has been (still is) at such low price-levels ! NOBODY !
But it isn't even done for Platinum or other tangibles.
Why should they bother about Gold ? Note that the euro/oil-article posted by waterboy, very strangely, said not a word about Gold !
But Gold doen NOT and will NEVER need any press ! We do understand why the largest Gold-Rush will come from the paper-gold arena...desperately trying to shift into the Physical, ALL AT ONCE !

There can't be any press about the correlation of the *MATURING EURO* and *INDEPENDANT OIL* !!! And above all...never analyse the W.A. !

Your...mine...our PHYSICAL GOLD IN POSSESSION, "cannot" be manipulated...anymore ! And that's the hart of the matter that must be avoided at all cost, to become evident.
Too much or an increasing amount of Physical in Possession gives the Gold Pricing Power into the hands of these Holders. Because it is the ultimate goal of these Physical Gold Holders, to dictate its revalued price from the past and its future valuation-dynamic, as well.

A very certain faction (goldclub), within the gold-manipulation (management) affair, knows very well what is on hand...and has already positioned itself for the big Physical explosion ! That same faction controls a lot of media !!! Be grateful to them Ari...they are part of making it inconveniently heavy for its price.

Who's going to explain about the ECB/BIS alliance (euro-political-power) with regard to the POG-management ? Puplava...Prechter...?
Are those, who repeat about the 16,000 tonnes of short-gold, buying / accumulating any Physical ? No Sir, they all keep adding (promoting) paper to the paper-floodings. Frustrated when it doesn't go their way !
Could it be that the BIS has NOW, both hands, on the gold valve and is controlling the **** contract - filling *** (and backing) !? Where are those illuminati, capable of analysing this "strategy" and more importantly, the reasons why ?

How can an ever proliferating $-reserve-currency, not been seen against the background of the paper-gold supporting arena in the process of being forced to kill itself ?
Nope...it can't !

All spotlights should be directed on Gold, the *Political* tool ! Maneuvering-ground for two ($/�) currency-system blocks.

Check out the IMF crisis-managements and its Gold-affairs !
Try to understand why, exactly, Canada AND Australia (US-allies) are heavy goldsellers ! Why was POG so low during the pr�-euro period ? Will China remain for ever, so friendly towards the US$ ? Will the upcoming socialist South Americans (Brazil, Venezuela) remain 100 % dollar-currency allies ?

How much, re-allocated, Gold is hidden in the ww BIS-System ? Why is nobody ever questioning the present $-reserve-currency system and theoritizising about the possibility of failiur ? What if a future shortage of deliverable Gold is "politically" induced ? No such speculations evere reach the media for the simple reason that it is Happening !
Even a dramatic low in POG (253$) wasn't a serious reason enough to elaborate on Gold and its history ! Because BIG PLAYERS never tell their whole story !

Who is going to sell his Physical Gold for a declining dollar ??? Helo, independant investment advisors...where are you ?

The distinction between "gold-stocks", "contract-gold", and "physical-gold-investments" is widening as the relative "soundness" of these asset clases is further exposed daily ! How does one explain this to the wide variety of different participants ? To difficult and time consuming. Lots of goldpaper is synonim for piles of Gold !
Try to prove it is exactly the opposite !

Goodnight Ari and all.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=564&ncid=716&e=11&u=/nm/20030202/ts_nm/iraq_british_saddam_dc Snippet:

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - British Labor politician Tony Benn said he had filmed an hour-long television interview with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein Sunday, the first in over a decade.

He said he had asked Saddam "very simple and very short questions" during the interview that dealt with weapons of mass destruction, links to al-Qaeda terror network and oil.

"This was a much more focused visit to have an opportunity for a television interview where he (Saddam) will be able to make his own case to the world," Benn, 77, a former long-time member of parliament, told a news conference in Baghdad.

Benn said he did not want to reveal Saddam's answers in the interview earlier in the day "because I am hoping that within the next day or two, the whole interview will be broadcast in its entirety."

He did not say when or where the interview would be broadcast. He was leaving for London via Amman late Sunday.

Trojan: I hope for American Viewer's that the USA won't tell the Major Networks NOT TO AIR the interview because it might carry CODED Messages.

The next three days should be most amazing for News and Hopefully Gold.

Pretcher reminds me of a theorist that makes his predictions based upon a theory that looks great on the drawing board, but fails to take into consideration man and his desperate attempts to keep the inevitable from happening.

As far as paper burning, I'm reminded of my days on the farm when my father, every fall, and every week, had me rake leaves. I got by butt blistered once for arguing the logic of the once a week raking. There weren't enough leaves in a week for me to justify the effort of doing the whole yard. The pile was too small to start a good fire, and the wind kept blowing the darn things around faster than I could rake them. Why not wait until all the leaves had fallen, rake them once into a big pile, and have one big fire?

And like a broken record, I'll repeat - Deflation is not an option. I still think we're in late fall in Kondratieff winter - with lots of leaves still on the trees, but the wind is picking up, but the burning is a ways away.

Liquidity? You bet. Did everything I could several months back. Problem is, as things keep going to heck, I keep wondering if it's going to be enough. Wish my bosses had started about a year earlier - where's that printing press when you need it anyway - oh, there's only one private corp that has that priviledge. . . . .

Pizz

... And please do not omit part of the message. As the second part should give you, if you are an american, that is, the shivers ...

- Is it a speech writer or whatever - the leader of the Western World said it- agin from the GWB Address of the State of the Nation (World):
"Once again, we are called to defend the safety of our people and the hopes of all mankind. We excercise power without conquest and we sacrifice for the liberty of strangers."

And yes, it sounds like Star Trek. Unfortunately, the future has already overtaken the present, as even the may figure out in time - if there is time.

... And it even sounds great in a humane and charitable way to sacrifice for the liberties of strangers. Wow! I'm really impressed - as I hope you will be too in surrendering le beau rest of your liberty to your leader. - And then you'll officially go on to teach the rest of the world a kind of democracy a republic has never experienced.

... As I'm still very much a pro-american european - and I always will, due to so many great friends I've made over time - I do see the problems cropping up in geo-economic and more so - political misconceptions - the 'patriots' are led into by "the establishment" ... that I may feel the ghost writers for GWB are really Mr. Spock, or is it spooks.

Shucks, who cares we nuke 'em anyway seems the strategy of last resort ... then why Iraq and funny dictator Saddam, when there's N.Korea, India, Pakistan and who ever else with reality of nuclear capacity ... sans oil, of course!

Personally, I find the Iraq question a travesty to the real goals and at best a diversion of truth.

The sorry truth is that the global monetary system is totally bankrupt and the search for scapegoats will not even be (inter-) national pastime, only past its time.

--- And physical gold transcends lifetimes - so be it - cb2

http://www.borowitzreport.com/archive_rpt.asp?rec=496With the News being so depressing and sad the last few days, I thought everyone deserved a good laugh.

Since the aricle talks about Jobs, The Economy and The Stock Market I hope it is OK to post it here.

Go Gold...

I am not sure how remote sensing would work for subsurface structures. The last time I was involved using remote sensing was to use DEM's for the USGS Reston, VA data base and overlay some IRSI data for surface wavelength data that made a nice draping over a 3D block model when I added in subsurface geological and geophysical data. I then converted an old MAC program (Flyby) so that as I rotated the model it gave the appearance of flying above the ground and through the ground around drill rigs and drill string glyphs. I did this all on a UNIX work station when I was beta testing an IBM program call "Data Explorer" for a major oil company through a university grant. It was a lot of work converting the data and the coordinates from lat-long to UTM and rewriting code from PC and MAC software. In fact it was more work than I wish to remember. That was a few years ago and though it was a lot of mental masturbation, I have since gone on to more useful and profitable endeavors. However, as I said I don't know how subsurface data would be accumulated with remote sensing as I had to manually entered the data. I know that it has been used to a small degree of success in the mineral industry and gravity/magnetic airborne data have been somewhat useful for both petroleum and mineral.

As far as reflation is concerned, I suspect that events will unfold in a similar fashion as they did in the 1970's with no/slow growth and inflation - stagflation. The Fed may try to pump up the money supply to stimulate growth and in effect weaken the dollar to help US exports. I doubt that it will work for long but desperate times call for desperate measures.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Some of my friends here in Salt Lake have several tons of coal under their flower beds, covered with plastic sheeting to keep the water from leaching away the BTU's.....then covered with soil and flowers....as a 'strategic reserve'.....

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAJEZAIPBD.htmlBuddy, can you please spare a dime for a cup of coffee, please. :-)

I didn't see the state of the union speech--couldn't bear to watch it, really--but later I saw a snippet of the speech where Bush talks about how Hydrogen-powered fuel cells were going to be an alternative energy source that would save us from oil dependency.

Now, hydrogen fuel cells are interesting, and almost certainly more efficient than internal-combustion engines, but what Bush failed to mention was that Hydrogen is a medium of energy transmission, not an energy source. It takes energy to separate hydrogen out of H2O!!! And where is that energy going to come from???

Maybe Bush actually did cover that in some other part of his speech, and I didn't see it. But later, the lapdog press picked up the story and added absolutely no value--ABC news had a little segment the next night about fuel cells, and how GM and Ford were investing huge $$$ to bring this technology to market. But did ABC mention that hydrogen is not a SOURCE of energy... and that we'd still be faced with the same set of energy problems we face today if suddenly the whole world stopped using internal combustion engines? Of course not.

The government, the media, and the people are so woefully ignorant of how utterly dependent we are on cheap energy, and where it comes from, that it is truly terrifying. In the meantime, we just keep vacuuming up oil and natural gas out of the ground like there's no tomorrow.

Thanks to Another/FOA, we all know the relationship between gold and oil. As long as every aspect of our society remains in such a state of ignorance, gold will just become exponentially more valuable.

But ultimately, if major steps aren't taken soon, the world won't be a very pleasant place to live in no matter how much gold we have. Implementing a sensible food and fuel hoarding program is clearly a necessary, but not sufficient, action. We all need to start raising some real awareness about these issues now if we hope to continue living in anything approaching a civilized world.

I have a few doubts myself. Back in 1972, all we had to work with was 4 bands from ERTS-B, later called LANDSAT. From that data, we constructed pseudo-stereo images, sliced densities with a video system(which I built), utilized various methodologies that make me nervous discussing in a public forum, even after all these years....(contact MK for my e-mail address if you're interested in the grisly details)....but it boiled down, at the end, to a trained eyeball to piece together the 'potentially oil-bearing subsurface structures' and had to be flown magnetically to fine it down to a point where drilling might be risked. (A lack of suface vegetation was a must!) In my previous post, I guess the definition of the term:"reflation" has to be picked over....for instance, if I was a large debtor 'entity', and discovered a pile of gold(or 'black gold')(or stole it), and paid back my debts with it, would that really be 'reflation'???????

Yes, they seem to have a plan to completely rework the automobile industry to pull us out of the depression that isn't coming.

Problem is we're 15 years out for any meaningful economic impact.

How to bridge the gap - how about a war time economy for the next 10 years at least? Iraq, then Iran, and a little kicking around in N Korea for a while. We'll probably have to let Taiwon go it alone with China, but then again maybe not.

If you read between the lines, and try not to be too short term oriented, the government is telling us the gameplan.

So far this past few months, Greenspan has mentioned the four letter word to wall street - Gold, and it appears to have had the shackles removed a bit. The strong dollar policy appears to be out the window so as to bring back a little manufacturing and cut the trade deficit. And the new boom will be replacing everyone's cars, since most don't need a bigger better computer, it's just this little war thing has to happen to bridge the gap.

Fits in nicely with a 10-15 year bull market in gold.

So if I were a real savy investor, I'd look for a mothballed manufacturing plant, convertable to fuel cell production, that in the meantime could make munitions and I'd want to be paid in gold bullion.

Simple. Hope there's no speed bumps in the way.

Pizz

http://www.bloomberg.comYen May Fall on Expectations Japan Will Sell Its Currency Again
By John Brinsley
Tokyo, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -Excerpts: "The yen may fall for a third day after Japan said Friday it sold about 700 billion yen ($5.84 billion) since mid-January to stem a rally that has crimped the country's exports, spurring speculation it may do so again.....
Japan sold yen for dollars several times from mid-January, a senior Ministry of Finance official said, to stem a 12 percent gain over the past year that erodes earnings of exporters such as Canon Inc. which earns three-quarters of its revenue abroad. It was the first time Japan sold its currency since June, when it spent 4 trillion yen over seven days to prevent its rise. Last year, Japanese authorities announced their actions each time.
``There�s now the fear of not knowing when the Bank of Japan will come in,�� said Robert Rennie, currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. ``That�s going to weaken the yen.�� The yen will probably trade between 117.50 and 122.50 to the dollar in the next few weeks, he said." End snippits

where does all the "money" come from?????WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush will propose a nearly $470 million boost in NASA's budget for fiscal 2004, an administration official said on Sunday, promising investigators would look into whether past cutbacks played any part in the space shuttle Columbia disaster.

The disaster has prompted calls for increased spending to upgrade the aging shuttle fleet and develop a new space plane. Columbia broke up over Texas on Saturday, killing all seven astronauts aboard, just 16 minutes before it was due to land in Florida.

While NASA's budget has been reduced over the past decade, a senior administration official said Bush would boost funding for the space agency by almost $470 million to $15.47 billion in his fiscal 2004 budget.

The budget, which will be released on Monday, does not include costs associated with Saturday's disaster.

The boom-time Argentine economy came to depend on foreign-sourced finance, much of it of speculative character. Once addicted, all involved were steadfast in refusing to recognize the sickness. Foreign borrowings financed too much consumption and too little of the type of sound investment capable of creating the necessary economic wealth to repay Creditors. Once this course was chosen, it was only a question of the dimensions of the inevitable financial and economic dislocation. Reliance on foreign borrowings in combination with economic maladjustments over time combined to create acutely fragile debt structures. Indeed, it was precisely the nature of the speculative capital flows fostering non-productive Credit excess that proved fatal to the Argentine financial system. Frail debt structures and economic maladjustment left the currency, Credit system, and economy hopelessly vulnerable to both the inevitable reversal of speculative flows and attendant capital flight. Confidence in the peso's peg to the dollar became of momentous consequence. Almost overnight, Argentine financial assets were no longer an acceptable medium for international exchange. Importantly, none of these types of issues have played a role in post-Bubble Japan.

So we have very difficult and complex questions to contemplate in our pursuit of What Will Be Post-Bubble America. Most regrettably, the Greenspan Fed, Wall Street, the GSEs and Washington politicians are resolute in their determination to stonewall the adjustment process. Importantly, this dangerous course of prolonging the Bubble is categorically based on continued Credit excess � inflating dollar financial claims. This should not today be in dispute, and incessant Credit inflation is why we remain fixated on dollar vulnerability and devaluation. There may certainly come a day when faltering confidence and a run on dollar financial assets wreaks (Argentine-style) havoc on the U.S. Credit system � especially its acutely fragile "Structured Finance" parallel "banking" system � but the system today retains its capacity for unchecked and rampant inflation of dollar claims (Credit inflation).

For the U.S. Bubble Economy it remains inflate or die. Reckless Japanese Credit inflation was terminated before it was too late. Argentina's was not.

The inescapable consequences of the U.S. Credit Bubble Dilemma include only more Credit and speculative excess, heightened financial fragility, deeper economic maladjustment and impairment, and a further debasement of our currency. Considering what we have and continue to observe, I do not feel it is at all outrageous to assert that our system has set a perilous course toward the collapse of the world's reserve currency. This is the harsh reality that we should recognize as a nation as we contemplate Post-Bubble America. And no amount of inflation will change the facts of economic life. There are no available shortcuts but many risky gimmicks to prolong the Bubble, hence only making the inevitable day of reckoning all the more painful and Balkanizing. There is nowadays only louder call for stimulating and "reflating," but there is absolutely no discussion of the consequences. There is so much a stake. It is our view that the longer we travel down this dangerous course the more rapidly the Post-Bubble America pendulum swings away from a Japanese scenario in the direction of Argentina.

"In a world of universal deceit...speaking the truth becomes a revolutionary act". George Orwell --1984.Thats a great quote, thats a keeper.

Bush has lost it with regard to spending. He is going to completely
blow up the budget. Its going to grow like NEVER before.
Time to own gold and silver for sure.

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,5921220%5E663,00.htmlIf true, this should play into the hands of war hawks, and further support gold investent.
Saddam's bodyguard warns of secret arsenal
02feb03 -Excerpts:
"Saddam Hussein's senior bodyguard has fled with details of Iraq's secret arsenal.
His revelations have supported US President George W. Bush's claim there is enough evidence from UN inspectors to justify going to war.
Abu Hamdi Mahmoud has provided Israeli intelligence with a list of sites that the inspectors have not visited.
They include:
AN underground chemical weapons facility at the southern end of the Jadray Peninsula in Baghdad;
A SCUD assembly area near Ramadi. The missiles come from North Korea;
TWO underground bunkers in Iraq's Western Desert. These contain biological weapons.
William Tierney, a former UN weapons inspector who has continued to gather information on Saddam's arsenal, said Mahmoud's information is "the smoking gun".
"Once the inspectors go to where Mahmoud has pointed them, then it's all over for Saddam," Tierney said.
Tierney, who has high-level contacts in Washington that go to the White House, said the information we publish today on Mahmoud's revelations "checks out, absolutely checks out".
Mahmoud was a member of the elite unit that protects Saddam. It is called the Murasiq Qun � the "Inner Circle".
He was known as "The Gatekeeper".
Mahmoud is a muscular Saddam lookalike often photographed standing behind Saddam when he is seated, or to his left when on the move.
Last week, Mahmoud was being debriefed at a high-security base in Israel's Negev Desert.
Ariel Sharon, the country's hard-line prime minister, has only allowed snippets of Mahmoud's sensational claims to be shared with the CIA and MI6.
"Sharon intends to shatter the growing anti-war movement," a source close to Mr Sharon said.
"He plans to call all those European leaders who are wavering to let them know how Saddam has continued to fool Hans Blix and his weapons inspectors."
.....Israeli intelligence sources have hinted that the deal with Mahmoud included smuggling his family out of Iraq.
Mossad agents have done this before.
At the start of Saddam's reign of terror, they persuaded an Iraqi pilot to fly his Russian fighter to Israel � after spiriting out his wife and children." End snippits

http://www.observer.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,887236,00.htmlA sad state of affairs.

This doesnt top the laughable article you mentioned below, but this report from the fed's finger in the dike reporter
is the best I ran into today.

"Last week the Federal Reserve released its triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), the most detailed report card on the state of the household sector's balance sheet and income statement currently available. There's no reason to equivocate on the general conclusion: the enduring hysteria that the household sector is over-levered and that this will inevitably be the catalyst for a collapse in spending is an enduring myth. Every cohort of the income distribution, every cohort of the age distribution, and every cohort of the net worth distribution have seen their debt burden (level of loan payments to income) fall in response to rallying interest rate markets and rising incomes. Whether rich or poor, old or young, your debt service burden is highly likely to be lower today than it was in the late 1990s, and there's a good chance it's the lowest it has been since the late 1980s, at least. What's more, leverage ratios (level of debt to assets) are falling just like the debt service burden. In aggregate, the household sector's debt as a proportion of assets is the lowest it has been since at least the late 1980s."

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APj3FwBRRWWVuIE1hTokyo, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The yen may fall for a third day after Zembei Mizoguchi, vice minister for international affairs, said Japan could sell its currency in a ``massive'' way to avoid ``rapid'' movements.

The yen traded at 119.92 to the dollar at 10:15 a.m. in Tokyo from 119.87 late Friday in New York, when a senior Ministry of Finance official said Japan sold yen for dollars several times from mid-January. The yen is more than 2 yen weaker that the four- month high of 117.47 reached on Jan. 17. The currency was also at 128.99 against the euro, from 129.19.

``There could be massive'' yen selling, Mizoguchi said, adding January's action, when Japan sold 700 billion yen ($5.84 billion), was ``preemptive, to make the market stable.'' The yen gained 12 percent over the past year, eroding earnings of exporters such as Canon Inc., which makes three-quarters of its revenue abroad.

``Japan is determined not to let the yen rise,'' said Motoshi Imura, foreign exchange manager at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. ``Selling the yen is a lot easier than buying it.'' The yen may fall to 120.50 against the dollar today, he said.

The dollar may fall against the euro.
______________
This should cause a yen for more gold!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/quotes/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=3Spot touches $370. Looking good so far. Go Gold.

custard piemr gresham a plus for catching the esoteric zepplin i blatantly ripped off.to black blade got my natural gas bill friday.im on a budget payment system,my monthly bill went up 35 percent.you called that one

Should we dismiss the recent comments of Mr. Frank Veneroso?
Perhaps Mr. Howe is incorrect when he speaks of Mr. Veneroso's updated analysis as containing "three new points worthy of mention."

Mr. Howe writes:

"More on Gold Derivatives. Criticism of my December 4 commentary in The Gartman Letter produced at least one beneficial result: online publication of an updated analysis by Frank Veneroso et al., Gold Derivatives, Gold Lending, Official Management of the Gold Price and the Current State of the Gold Market, May 17, 2002 (www.gata.org/Veneroso1202.html; also www.financialsense.com/editorials/veneroso.htm). While this new piece makes no fundamental change in his methodology or estimate of total gold lending by the central banks (i.e., the total short physical position), it does contain three new points worthy of mention.

First, as the title suggests, Mr. Veneroso publicly opines for the first time that the central banks have been deliberately manipulating gold prices. Heretofore, he has confined his analysis to objective estimates of the size of the total short physical position.

Second, he suggests that while aggregate short positions -- particularly those of gold producers -- in the futures and forward markets may have been substantially reduced, aggregate gold loans by central banks have not. Indeed, they have continued to grow, and cannot be reduced as long as physical demand for fabrication and bar hoarding exceeds new mine supply, scrap recovery and official sales. Accordingly, any reduction in aggregate short positions in the futures and forward markets has resulted from intervention by the official sector, which, as he puts it, 'has quietly taken the gold shorts from private speculators and producers and transferred them to their books. In other words, the official sector has intervened to prevent an explosive gold derivative crisis.'

Third, he reports from contacts in the hedge fund industry, 'a growing belief that the gold market is being managed by the official sector and that this management will at some point fail.' This perception in itself constitutes a 'challenge' to the central banks, and citing recent comments from the Bundesbank about its willingness to consider selling more gold, Mr. Veneroso foresees the possibility of 'further official statements or actions that might be construed as part of an attempt to manage the gold price.' He adds: 'One or more of these statements or actions may be so extreme as to shock the market.'"

"ONE OR MORE OF THESE STATEMENTS OR ACTION MAY BE SO EXTREME AS TO SHOCK THE MARKET." Mr. Frank Vereroso, emphasis added

I would really appreciate your thoughts on what "statements" or "actions" we might anticipate...or should we dismiss the entire notion?

Thank you

US military will reinforce Korea
From Roland Watson in Washington



THE Pentagon is poised to increase its forces in the Far East amid American fears that North Korea is within weeks of producing nuclear weapons.
The build-up could include nearly three dozen bombers and an aircraft carrier, sent as a warning to Kim Jong Il, the North Korean dictator, not to exploit Washington's focus on the Gulf.

The request for reinforcements, made by the Commander of US Forces in the Pacific, Admiral Thomas Fargo, highlights the delicate balance the Pentagon is facing as it confronts a possible war in Iraq and events unfolding on the Korean Peninsula.

http://www.accessatlanta.com/ajc/epaper/editions/sunday/business_e3c3799542e731900039.htmlGas restrictions, diving stocks, electricity curbs all possible

Snippit:

Washington --- As the Pentagon gathers forces in and near the Persian Gulf for a potential military confrontation with Iraq, policy-makers and experts in Washington are shifting their focus to the war's possible economic consequences. In the worst-case war scenario, Americans could face more unemployment, a tumble of stock exchanges, long gas lines and restrictions on electricity use. If it is a quick victory, economists and analysts believe the impact would be minimal and that oil production from both a new Iraq and other countries could eventually bring oil prices down and stimulate the world economy. Based on two congressional studies, economist William Nordhaus at Yale University estimates the war could cost the United States from $100 billion to $2 trillion and cause global recession.

Analysts at CSIS predict in the worst case, Iraqi oil production could stop for the remainder of 2003. Oil prices would jump to $80 per barrel and then fall back to $40 a barrel by the end of 2004 --- still substantially above the prewar level. The result would be a U.S. oil shortage, requiring voluntary rationing in the short term. Steps taken during the oil shortages of the 1970s are among the possible schemes for dealing with a new shortfall, including: alternating days of gasoline purchases based on odd/even license plate numbers; limiting gas purchases to 8 gallons; restricting heat and electricity consumption; banning illuminated outdoor advertisements; and encouraging the use of mass transportation. Beyond oil prices and supplies, a prolonged war could adversely affect the economy by driving down the stock market and inhibiting consumer spending. The unemployment rate could initially rise to near 7.5 percent and remain above 7 percent at the end of 2004, according to CSIS.


Black Blade: Even lower oil prices may not help much as the US remains mired in a deepening recession and buried under crushing debt. Either way it goes it should prove to get "interesting".

greetingssir21mabrytypicallyeveryoneonnthisforumusespunctuation,capitalletters,etc.soastomakeone'spostingseasilyreadableforothersatthemightyoakentableyoumaywanttobemindfulofthiscourtesysothatmorepeoplereadyourpostsandhearyourcontributionstotheforumthankspaperavalanche

picky,picky,picky !

Altho i do have to agree. But heck, having lived in France for 13 years (and yes, Belgian, I comprehend exactly where your 'creative' English comes from !) I'm ready to put up with most things.

OK, I'm in awe. How did you avoid the carriage returns ?!

Carriage ProblemsSet the horse free.

Slingshot--------------:0)

Message, recieved.Will try to do better job.

Spot pierced $370 again. Should be interesting if it can hold this week. BTW, there's no "war premium" as it's "already factored into the price". Hell, if the primates on Wall Street can get away with that excuse why not everyone else.

- Black Blade

I also note that the US Dollar is rising again. It looks like it might go over Parity again with the Euro.

Does it's rise have something to do with BOJ's intervention in the Yen.

Thanks for any thoughts that you can offer me on this issue.

...on possible shocking Fed actions.We all draw the future.

I don't know what Mr. Veneroso was referring to in his view of potential shocking Fed moves.

I DO know what is happening today in the gold and Major Currency Dollar Index trading price patterns. And I believe the patterns tell us useful information.

A former colleague who once worked as a noted laser physicist at Sandia Labs, was fond of asking "What is the data teaching us?" I had trouble imagining data teaching, but I came around to his point after some time. Hidden processes can only be seen through the data trail they leave. The Fed's gold policy machine is shrouded in secrecy.

The gold data trail suggests that the gold price is being ramped upwards as the MCDI is being ramped down...in straight lines from Dec 3rd 2002.

The Fed has been manipulating gold since the early 1990s but in earnest since 1996...however, at a terrible cost in bullion lost.

The Fed is doing this either directly with Treasury or indirectly with bullion bank acolytes. Is there a secondary future plan [The one Veneroso alludes to]? There is probably some gold related Fed policy in the works.

That policy will allow the Fed to benefit [In their fiat producing mandate] by a rising gold price. Exactly what it is, I don't know. But getting any more specific that that is gilding the lily as a prudent spectator will get the message and move to gold and especially its shares as soon as possible.

Contrary the Sir miner49er, the market cap of the HUI is about equal to the running gross of Spiderman and ANY interest from the average investor will run the shares vertical. This ignores the bundle of cash [$50 Million plus] sitting on the 'Buy" buttons of the major gold mutual funds and the 300 plus tonnes of hedger buying that must break soon in their contract closure efforts. So the shares will double very soon even as the gold price keeps a steady ramp up.

Another gold standard? With a fixed gold price? No.

The Fed can't hold the gold price now. An edict for $400 per ounce...or "N" hundred dollars per ounce won't get them anything but more lost gold.

I currently view the Western banks as having to sell their gold to hold its price down in an effort to support their weak currencies and unsustainable economic policies brought forth by profligate legislators. They have finally acknowledged by the linear move since Dec 3rd, that this absurd, one-way policy can't go on any longer.

Further, these august men have also concluded that the only force that can keep them from losing more of their precious central bank gold is a higher price for gold. The price sufficient to obviate the continued sale of gold is that price that draws out hoarded gold from sources OTHER than central banks.

The Fed will put in place a policy that gives the impression that the dollar is somehow getting stronger from a rising gold price.

Possibly, Mr. Veneroso simply intended to convey that the Fed had accepted a very high future gold price. He will be proven correct when people are shocked by the level.

With us old farts you have to speak very loud and plain. We are deef in one ear and blind in the other! Or something like that.

If media coverage was the benchmark for equality, the family and friends of 7 school children who perished in the Canadian Skifields this past weekend can feel poorly done by.
So too the Yen which has been copping the onslaught of America's newest and most successful recent export, Deflation.

Deepest sympathies one and all.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=3EOM

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID369857&cmd=show[s8822875]&disp=PIt broke the 20 year downtrend line.

It's the DOW! mate.
Everything is directed at reinflating the Dow.
Don't be surprised to see $370 holding 'till late May (maybe March??) and a DI of 70 or 80.... they ran the same scam in May '02 ...all to pump up 2Q earnings.
They'll ruin the Dollar before they'll ruin the Dow imo and PoG will do their bidding.

Have read the news and views (USA GOLD) I just received today and interested in the the possible trouble the Chinese banks are in where they only allow 10% withdrawal of a person's savings at any one time......this is a country with a large population that is feeling trouble in all areas. Another commodity that survives the times along with gold, is grains. Right now the dust storms from the dust bowls of dust bowls (GOBI) are swirling again. The article says 40% of China is now desert. Anyone else come across this article? Can you just imagine the future price of basic grains if this gets worse? If the percieved notion is going around certain cricles that US and Britain are going to war for Oil, can you imagine what a large population might do if they're running out of food? Was at the neighborhood park last week burning all the Japanese New Year's good luck charms to appease the heavens for a good year. Queried the locals about investments. The young? NTT and China investments. The old? Yen and gold. The older folk where very surprised when I told them how much of my investments where in the solid stuff. They were surprised that a younger person would be into the hard stuff. They said they were going to get more. They don't care who gets elected as finance minister, inflation/deflation? They don't care.

I guess somebody did notice...that's what happens you get so involved reading the posts that you forget to hit the refresh key!

Please be sure to email your real name and snailmail ADDRESS directly to:
marie@usagold.com
ANYWHERE else and it may delay the arrival of the PRIZE !!
Thanks !
<;-)

Let's see if you and SPIKE can clear $375. tonight and then take a rest to eat the PAPER AVALANCHE in NY ! That 370 "barrier" was not to bad to clear DOWNUNDER !
DID anyone notice that the chart is so far FOLLOWING the same pattern of last Friday ?
<;-)

Methinks it's NY access trading...lately the Kitco Spot chart (when it's up) has been quite jumpy in the Sydney sector and would indicate a lot more trading than lil 'ol Oz could muster.

http://finance.lycos.com/home/livecharts/Ay ! I have noted the HEAVY Volume on the Lycos Quote.com under the symbol GC3J which is the April '03 COMEX Contract !
MUCH more action that normal !
"THINGS are not the same anymore, Toto !"
<;-)

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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EB01Ak03.htmlHowever, in the short and long run Baghdad may not be the city of greatest unpredictability in any US campaign. One of the potentially hottest spots could be the northern oil-rich and historically controversial city of Kirkuk. Not only might this city witness a mad dash on the part of the Turks, the Americans and the Kurds, it could also face internal clashes as ethnic groups take the chance to settle old scores. This chaos could provide an opportune pretext for neighboring Turkey to step up its involvement, covertly or otherwise.

Part of the interest in Kirkuk is its oil. The city, located in northern Mosul province about 250 kilometers north of Baghdad near the foot of the Zagros Mountains, sits atop more than 10 billion barrels of proven reserves. One of the country's two leading oil sites, the wells at Kirkuk currently produce up to 1 million barrels a day.
_____________
The US, Turkey, Kurds and Arabs want to control this
ancient city known as the Kurdish Jerusalem. It sits on over
10 Billion barrels of oil. Get ready to rumble.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=oddlyEnoughNews&storyID=2147647
Snippit:

PARIS (Reuters) - An anonymous donor took France's annual "yellow coins" hospital appeal literally and donated a sack full of gold. The man handed over 279 gold coins worth an estimated 15,000 euros ($16,000) at the Porte Doree (Golden Door) post office branch in Paris, a postal spokeswoman said on Thursday without giving any more details of the mystery benefactor. Most of the coins were 20 franc Napoleon III pieces named after the 19th-century emperor of France. Now popular collectors' items, some of these coins can fetch more than 100 euros apiece.

Black Blade: Must be quite an insult to receive "barbarous relics". Hmmm�

There's discussion in the media by Euro commentators who wish to pull the plug on their contribution to the Intl. Space Station. How odd.

- Black Blade

This past weekend a bomb at a bank in Lagos Nigeria killed
about 40 people. The police reported it as a possible robbery
attempt. Its probably muslim terrorism.

The fighting in Ivory Coast involves fighting between the muslim north and the christian south. Muslim attacks are picking up.

A bomb just went off a few hours ago at police headquarters
in Jakarta,Indonesia.

Now the BBC is reporting a bombing at the Pakistani State Oil
headquarters in Karachi.

Is al Qaeda starting a new offensive?

Mr. Warner. It's my hope that the Oregon Trail never grows over with weeds. Dan

Less and less contract-gold traders are lured into the game with the "down-spiral" of POG ending at the 253$/oz-bottom in 1999. That down-spiral has been feeding on its own with more new contracts upon the old ones and roll-overs. All this with an absolute minimum of Physical Gold involved.

This POG-down spiral ended with a 2 year bottoming ('99-'01)
Now we have to spiral-up, but Physical Gold is needed, now, to dampen the speed of unwinding previous running contracts and avoiding new calls with physical delivery.

LBMA (visible) contract-volume is on the decline and is most probably evidence that Available Gold is extremely scarce, for further, massive, contract-plays.

Contract-gold is losing its price-impact, because it isn't needed any further, now that the 2 competing currencies ($/�) silently agreed on their evolving exchange rate.

Now it is becoming more "Physical"-time. Those who laid the trap for a major default are in control of the trap-timing.

Since the paper-gold-contract market is so huge and diversified...it took a long time of maneuvering by the "dominator" to get all the leverage-tools on his side.

IMVHO and FWIW, the main purpose is (was) to engineer such an environment into the contract-positions, that an Explosive, POG-Gapping, would resort a maximum of surprise force, accompagned with major defaulting and PANIC.
Such a possible move must have the the characteristic that it can be detonated at the exact appropiate moment. For instance, when the dollar is laying his hands, succesfully, on Arabian oil and in the capacity of prolonging its timeline !?

Short : Kill the dollar with an irreversable POG-spike, let the euro rise in exchange rate against the dollar and add at the same time the announcement of oil for euro. Sort of Big Bang !?

FWIW ! Thoughts ?

What a run.

http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4327419492407115840
Snippit:

To improve the poor longer-term returns, Mr. Holmes says he has changed the investment style of the funds since becoming a co-manager a year and a half ago. He says he has reduced the funds' exposure to shares of South African producers, which were battered by devaluations of the country's currency. At the same time, he has largely steered clear of certain big gold producers, such as Canada's Barrick Gold Corp. and Placer Dome Inc. Their share-price gains have greatly lagged behind smaller rivals' due partly to concerns about Barrick's and Placer's practice of hedging against gold's price movements. What does the future hold? The gold rally "has legs," Mr. Holmes argues, partly because after years of skimpy industry funding for exploration of new gold mines, the gold market has little new supply to keep up with demand.

Black Blade: I notice that the Funds are dumping mega-hedgers across the board.

I see another news report where the executive director of Japan's National Space Development Agency said there's likely to be a serious impact on Japan's involvement in the international space station...odd indeed!

TOCOM gold jumps on yen, platinum hits 12-yr high

Monday February 3, 2:49 am ET

TOKYO, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures bounded to new
eight-year highs on Monday as the yen buckled against the dollar
and the threat of war in Iraq kept bullion on investors' minds.
Platinum contracts (0#JPL:) scaled peaks not seen in over 12
years, finishing limit-up as speculators continued to pour money
into the white metal in the face of bullish fundamentals.

The dollar hit a six-week high against the yen on a report
that Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi had decided to
appoint a supporter of inflation targeting as Bank of Japan
governor.

Traders said that triggered a burst of gold buying, with few
players willing to go short as Washington prepares to take its
case against Baghdad to the U.N. Security Council.
"We're seeing some fresh buying from funds and individual
speculators," said a dealer with one of Japan's big trading
houses. [Truncated for copyright concerns]

http://www.afp.com/english/newsml/stories/030203042944.fjwu79ni.htmlOil should go down and maybe the US Dollar will rise.

I guess War with Iraq is closer now.

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"It's deja vu all over again"Washington, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush proposed that Congress limit growth in federal spending to 4 percent in each of the next two years in a $2.23 trillion U.S. budget for 2004 that would post a record $307 billion deficit.

Belgian:

My thoughts were running in the same direction as yours this morning:

The manipulation of the POG has become so pronounced lately that anyone can see it at a glance. We, here around this discussion table, have laid out the fundamentals that pretty well explain what must be happening. Yet the financial press keeps trumpeting their "war worries" and "buy the rumor, sell the fact" explanations. Since the whole system relies on keeping investors in the dark, it strikes me, also, that a very "serviceable" surprise would be the breakaway move in POG coinciding with the outbreak of war. Such an event would shock the maximum number of investors and give the maximum advantage to the manipulators.

Just a thought.

Washington, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. manufacturing expanded for a third straight month in January as new orders and production kept growing, suggesting a factory recovery is under way, an industry report showed.

The Institute for Supply Management's factory index was 53.9 last month compared with 55.2 in December. The index has been higher than 50, signaling improving business conditions, since November. Production and orders have expanded for five months.
___________
Headline for this news is about fantastic growth in manuf
sector! The index actually fell from 55.2 in Dec to 53.9 in Jan.
Talk about spin. This is Orwellian for sure. Newspeak and newthink.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topsum&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&box=ad_box_all2&tag=energy∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APj6OThTKT1BFQyBgDoha, Qatar, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, which supplies one- third of the world's oil, will ``probably'' reduce output in the second quarter to prevent a drop in prices as demand slows, the group's president said.

``In the second quarter OPEC will face a difficult task,'' said Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, who is also Qatar's oil minister, in an interview. ``We will probably have to reduce supply. The next decision we face is more likely to be a cut than an increase.''

I just checked the website, and can't believe I won the pricing contest! I've never won anything in my whole life. This must be a sign. Anyway, congratulations to the other winners, and Thanks for the great website and contest!

And was below analyst expectations of 54.0 (of course that little tidbit is buried in the 5th paragraph of the Bloomberg Article).

Title of Article: Manufacturing in US Expands for Third Straight Month, Suggests Recovery

More Accurate Title: ISM Index drops, Suggests Growth in Manufacturing is Stalling

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APj5S4BVAWWVuIEZh
02/03 06:30

By David Wigan


London, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell against the dollar after Zembei Mizoguchi, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, said the government was weighing ``massive'' sales of the currency to curb its rise.

The yen fell to 120.43 to the dollar at 11:19 a.m. in London, from 119.93 late Friday. Against the euro the Japanese currency was at 129.23, compared with 128.72 late Friday.

``There could be massive'' yen sales, Mizoguchi said. Japan disposed of 700 billion yen ($5.84 billion) in January, an unidentified Ministry of Finance official said on Friday. The sale was ``preemptive, to make the market stable,'' he said.

The yen has risen about 12 percent against the dollar in the past year, fueling concern that its advance will hurt companies such as Canon Inc., which earns three-quarters of its revenue outside Japan.

January's yen sales were the first since June, when Japan spent 4 trillion yen over seven days to block its advance. One difference between this year and last was that this time the authorities didn't announce their intentions.

``This unannounced action to sell the yen seems to be a change of strategy by the ministry and that makes everyone nervous,'' said Motoshi Imura, foreign exchange manager at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. The yen could fall to 122 against the dollar in the next couple of weeks, he said.

In other trading, the dollar was at 1.0714 against the euro, compared with 1.0731. Against the pound it traded at 1.6391, compared with 1.6448. The dollar rose amid speculation that signs of stronger growth will boost U.S. stocks, increasing demand for the currency to buy them. U.S. stock futures gained.

Denial

The yen pared some of its losses after Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi denied a Kyodo News report that Nobuyuki Nakahara, who favors pumping more money into the economy, will be the next Bank of Japan governor.

The yen fell as low as 120.91 to the dollar on Kyodo's report, before Koizumi called it ``incorrect.'' Nakahara has advocated an inflation target to fight almost five years of falling prices and has urged the central bank to print more money and buy foreign bonds to increase the money supply. Masaru Hayami's term as head of the central bank ends March 19.

``The Kyodo report sent the yen tumbling and Koizumi's denial just sent it back up,'' said Minoru Shioiri, foreign exchange manager at Mitsubishi Securities.

Nakahara's appointment to head the central bank ``would be extremely negative for the yen,'' said Marshall Gittler, foreign exchange strategist in Tokyo at Deutsche Bank AG, the third- largest trader in the $1.2-trillion-a-day currency market.
++++++++++++++++
"Massive Sales" of yen mean massive purchases of gold.

The Factory orders release works fine as long as the "What you perceive is believed" theory works. When that fails and the truth comes out, nothing is creditable and all believability will be shattered. But what are the options...
As far as OPEC, "probably" reducing output, I believe it's strictly political. Iraq's situation will mollify the supply/demand situation. But, tack on the Korean situation, the threat of sabotage on oil shipments, and the potential unanticipated conflict needs of the military and it looks like the Bush team might be looking at a bag of worms if they don't get to the Iraq oil fields before their blown up. With possession being nine tenths of the law, China and others might have some of their own designs. Interesting times ahead.

New York, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Ex-Tyco International Ltd. General Counsel Mark Belnick was charged with grand larceny for taking a $12 million bonus that wasn't approved by Tyco's board, the Manhattan district attorney said.

Belnick is accused of receiving $2 million in cash and 200,000 shares of Tyco stock that he knew weren't authorized, Manhattan District Attorney Robert Morgenthau said. Belnick was also cited in the new indictment on fraud charges that say he, former Chief Executive Officer Dennis Kozlowski and former Chief Financial Officer Mark Swartz knowingly made false representations about Tyco's financial condition.

``The move from softer ball to hardball is to add pressure to gain leverage,'' former prosecutor Jacob S. Frenkel said. ``The D.A. is looking at Belnick as a ticket to bigger fish at Tyco.''

The new charges against Belnick are the latest result of the district attorney's investigation into Tyco and its former executives, which has used evidence turned up in the company's own internal probe.

Belnick, who was indicted in September for falsifying business records, faces up to 25 years if convicted of the grand larceny charge.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APj6c7BZYQ1NGQiBTThe firm's suspension of Quattrone may be an effort by Credit Suisse Chief Executive John Mack to distance the bank from Quattrone after the disclosure last week of e-mails instructing employees to ``edit'' their files related to IPOs. Quattrone may have known the firm's IPO practices were being probed by regulators at the time.

``New information raised questions about whether Mr. Quattrone acted appropriately in December 2000 when he sent that e- mail,'' the company said in a statement.

Quattrone was told last month that he faces civil charges stemming from an investigation by the National Association of Securities Dealers into claims of conflict of interests that harmed investors during the 1990s stock boom.
-----
Quattrone joined CSFB from Deutsche Bank AG in 1998, negotiating an agreement in which he kept half of his division's revenue -- after certain costs -- to mete out to his staff. In November 2001, Chief Executive Officer John Mack renegotiated the agreement so that Quattrone's compensation was tied to the firm's profits instead.

Quattrone is the son of a Philadelphia garment maker. He went to the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School in that city. In 1979 he joined Morgan Stanley's leveraged leasing group as a financial analyst in New York, working under Carter McClelland, now president of Banc of America Securities. At McClelland's urging, Quattrone later moved west, earning an M.B.A. at Stanford University in Palo Alto.

Clinton, Mississippi, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- WorldCom Inc., the telephone company seeking to emerge from the biggest bankruptcy, plans to cut 5,000 jobs, or 8.3 percent of its workforce, to help reduce $2.5 billion of annual costs.

The positions to be eliminated are mainly corporate and administrative, WorldCom said in a statement distributed by PR Newswire. The last major round of job cuts from Clinton, Mississippi-based WorldCom, which has 60,000 employees, came in June, when the company said it would slash 17,000 positions.

I'm in heated discussion with the postal system about a declaration of Gold coins for customs.There is the term "stateminted Goldcoin" here in Switzerlands VAT law-to my knowledge Goldcoins are all officially minted.

With the older ones its pretty clear from the historic Goldlink.The newer pieces,even the bullion coins have all an official mark on it.

Is anyone aware of Goldcoins which are not staeminted,like with the Silverrounds?If yes,it would still go under bullion IMHO.

Thanks in advance.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2719889.stmMonday, 3 February, 2003, 10:48 GMT
German shoppers stop spending

Chancellor Schroeder's economic woes are mounting

German retail sales fell last year for the first time since 1997, as recession-hit consumers reined in spending.

For 2002 as a whole, retail sales declined by 2.3%, their worst performance since records began two decades ago.

Especially gloomy are month-by-month figures, which show an apparent slowing of sales during the year, contradicting the impression that Germany may be recovering from its slump of a year ago.

ALMOST to the $372 mark again !
UP UP and OVER !!
<;-)

The Possible and The Probable
We are indebted to Mr. Frank Veneroso for sharing his vision.

"Third, he reports from contacts in the hedge fund industry, 'a growing belief that the gold market is being managed by the official sector and that this management will at some point fail.' This perception in itself constitutes a 'challenge' to the central banks, and citing recent comments from the Bundesbank about its willingness to consider selling more gold, Mr. Veneroso foresees the possibility of 'further official statements or actions that might be construed as part of an attempt to manage the gold price.' He adds: 'One or more of these statements or actions may be so extreme as to shock the market.'" CURRENT MPEG COMMENTARY by Mr. Reg Howe

The above paragraph is loaded with insight which should be considered by all serious gold investors.

"...this management will at some point fail."

I assume it will be apparent that the official sector is on the verge of losing control when gold goes through $400

At that point - I'm guessing here - should we expect "actions" and "statements" and what might they be?

I believe there is an exceedingly high likehood that the words, "confiscation" and/or "nationalization" will be bandied about. Recent action in the Gold Mining Share Sector would lend credence to this probability.

THEREFORE, beware of leverage as we blast out of this $370 range. A drop in gold from $400 to $350 overnight, will destroy the leveraged speculator. Keep some powder dry and look for the most depressing news you can imagine. These people who operate within the official sector are not going quietly...after all,who wants to loose their job, not to mention all the perks?

Thank you

You and me, feeling some Big Bang coming, makes two...a nice start !
Notice how OPEC is very closely watching the POO and communicating their moves, publicly (ElGordo)! That's new !
Yes, they know that the dollar wants to break (contain) OPEC's, gained, pricing power (post GW-II) ! OPEC's, exposed, self confidence must be based on something...euro-like ?
Pay oil in euro and there will be free flow of low priced crude for all of you !? Sorry for keeping hammering on this "fundamental" probability.

IMVHO and FWIW : If POG goes higher and XAU/HUI doesn't jump up...we have the great "dis-connection" (paper from physical) !!!

Today's hard talk on BBC was with an intello from the Jordanian Royal familly : Some shocking revelations on US-unilateralism from this, seemingly, reliable man of good will.
The M.E. desires, multi-lateral, constructive western help...and not a devastating war. Moderate Arabs offer alternatives. Is it too late ?

Can you please define Veneroso's "official sector" ? FED ...IMF...ECB...BIS ...? Wich of these official sectors will be "out" of control and wich one(s) will be "in" full control ? TIA.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030203/markets_japan_commodities_1.htmlTokyo, February 3, 2003 (Reuters) -Excerpt:
"Japans biggest futures exchange did more business on Monday than on any other day of its half-century existance...."

Traders said to be "speculating" in gold and oil futures. If TOCOM decides to again shut down or change the rules, as they did with platinum a couple years back, these "speculators" will wish they had been "investors".

It strikes me as "very curious" the complete lack of margin calls in the mining sector following this runup in PoG.
OK we've seen SOME covering, but the forward sold pos'n of the Majors "should have" wreaked havoc in the Market at this level.
If we give credence to the assumption that US "deep-storage" is now African resources, it doesn't take much imagination to conclude Bullion Bank "deep-storage" is now Gold Miner reserves (those that were "unincumbered" prior to the run-up.)
The next conclusion that can be drawn is that hedged Miners are and will be reduced to "share-croppers" mining BB/CB owned Gold.
...whatsmore, unhedged Miners won't escape this dynamic as National Govt's, realising foreign CB's have leins on (say) 5 Yr's forward production, will move to Nationalise what's left.

Lets watch!

Think! If the US enters a war, the price rises (safe bet I think). If the US doesn't go to war, they'll be no oil bonus and all that militray hardware will remain on the shelf.

We are at a critical juncture in the histroy of western civilization.

Veneroso's Official Sector
Firstly, let me say that I enjoy your input.

Secondly, the suspects you mentioned are certainly movers and shakers within The Central Banks of the world.

Mr. Veneroso mentions, "central banks" and "manipulation" quite forcefully. I'm sure that's what he means but would pass the lance to Mr. Bolser who can certainly give FV a buzz to verify.

Please don't think that I'm bearish in any way regarding gold. There's a position-improving-opportunity coming and we should have a strategy in mind. It will be the Grand Shakeout and will break not only the hearts and minds of many in the gold community but it will devastate the leveraged players...at least that's what I'd do to you people if I were on the other side.

Thank you, Sir.

Deep Storage

I agree with you. The great satan of hedgers is ABX who would certainly be bought out by The Treasury?...or would it be the Fed? Whomever, they could fire-up the printing presses and make a fair deal with the share holders. No sweat. They might even buyout all the major gold miners in our country.

I actually think it's a good idead...as long as they figure gold is worth $1,200 per ounce, MINIMUM! And they continue to let us hold our private stash just as China is now doing.
Maybe even a new monetary system where goods and services are priced in terms of gold-weight and their fiat would be used for the credit side in some way.

I'd sure like to know who it was that came up with the "Deep Storage" classification for some of our gold reserves. I'll bet they laughed their butts off when that term first came up.

Thank you

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Hey guys just read your piece on a grand shakeout.I assume you refer to the gold mining stocks?You are right if the stocks dont respond soon,people will swear off them,even some of the hardened gold bugs,especially since they have gone nowhere on golds latest move from 320's to 370's.However i would note that Sinclair among others feels differently.Many feel the stocks will fly as gold approaches 400,if they dont, clearly it is over.Bill Murphy says everyone he talks to cant wait to dump their stocks,then he says we have a long way to go yet.And so we are torn,myself i cant wait to get out and buy more physical.Large caps like kinross,goldcorp etc simply suck.But alas i have no choice but to wait for 400 and see if the promised short squeeze arrives.One has no choice but to hope and trust in Sinclair and Murphy.Of course the cabal is causing its own problem,either the stocks move soon or there will be a mad rush from the stocks into physical.My advice stay away from large caps unless you like losing money will gold goes up.

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BUT at least we are above the $370 level and HOLDING WELL !
We shall try for that $375 level when the HK market opens, YES ?
<;-)

****************************Just Another day in paradise.

Gold to $375.00 in HK. Maybe they can tack on some more WAR PREMIUM.
Slingshot-----------------<>

The Grand Shakeout, aka, Market Shock
Let's assume $400 gold will set off a massive short squeeze...in fact, it would be a systemic problem which would challenge the official sector's power. Question: What would you do if you were in their position?

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=201&feed=reu§ion=news≠ws_id=reu-wat264483&date=20030203&alias=/alias/money/cm/nwOne would think that large mining company executives with international connections are in a better position than their would-be investors to know what might be coming down the road. This development, therefore, gives us much food for thought.

R.
(excerpts)
WASHINGTON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd. (GFIJ) on Monday pulled plans to offer 26 million ordinary shares in the United States [on the NYSE].

The company did not provide a reason in its withdrawal statement....

Last summer, the second-largest gold producer in South Africa filed to sell the American Depositary Shares after telling U.S. regulators it planned an initial public offering in the United States.

------(from url)-------

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlHot off the press...

http://www.newindpress.com/Newsitems.asp?ID=IEB20030201062736&Title=Business&rLink=0NEW DELHI: India, the largest consumer of silver, is gearing up to start hallmarking of the white precious metal by April.


snippet..
The need for hallmarking was felt after several complaints to consumers forums by people duped on the quality of the silverware purchased, with some having a shocking zero silver content.

While the national standards body BIS has not undertaken any market survey of the quality of silverware and jewellery sold by retailers, it is aware of some of the complaints being received.

http://www.business-standard.com/today/story.asp?Menu=24&story=7251excerpts:

Business Standard (Mumbai) February 4, 2003 --

This week is expected to witness major development as Washington takes its case against Baghdad to the UN Security Council. The metal has constantly remained within sight of six-year peaks, its "war premium" intact.

All eyes are now on US Secretary of State Colin Powell's visit to the UN Security Council on Wednesday.

Traders said buying of yen-based gold futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange was dragging the spot price higher.

The dollar jumped more than a yen in the morning on a report Japan's Prime Minister was considering appointing a supporter of inflation targeting as Bank of Japan governor.

That proved yet another plus for gold, which is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation.

------(see url)-------

Supply and demand. As demand escalates and the price rises, how much physical gold will come out of current investors' nest eggs to fill the void? Except as driven by need, how many will eagerly yield up their supply of solid wealth for alternate holdings in what would seem to be obviously inferior paper? No one knows how very high the price may go as sentiment continues to swing in gold's favor as all the world wants what only a few now have.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today and shed your paper for gold while the getting is good.

R.

Well you gotta hand it to them.Its a good plan,keep the stocks down so long,that when they do spring everyone jumps ship.Can anyone explain this?What do the hui and xau need 500 gold?I have to admit im befuddled anyone got any good news?

Correction: 1:3 split

Spot is up to $371.20 in after hours trade. Now that the Lunar New Year celebration is over it is up tp Hong Kong and China to carry the ball.

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!

The reason for the breakin at Greenspan's house was to find out how much gold the Federal reserve will have to somehow obtain from Canadian and South American mines to carry out an expected or intended dealing with a financial meltdown. Last part of article at http://www.scolnicksreport.com . I have not seen any comments on this.

XAU and HUI rallied from late November to end of December around 30% plus or minus.

This rally pushed them to the top of channels, and we are having what appears to be a normal correction, still within their up channels. We are now at the bottom of the channels and oversold, hourly, daily, but weekly is not as oversold as i'd like to see it, but we can still rally very sharply from this area.

Gold has been acting better than stocks. Last year at this time stocks behaved better than gold for the most part.

It's normal. It's also normal to have fear at the bottom for weak hands to sell, and greed at the tops and hold. If you are concerned now, why weren't you concerned Jan 1, cause that is when technical traders should sell (and most did and that is why we're down now).

If there are scared paper gold holders out there, sell and buy physical and sleep at night, assuming you believe in gold. THE VOLITILITY IS GOING TO GET WORSE, INCLUDING BULLION. If you don't, buy dollars or such and live in everyone elses dreamworld - gee my dollar is still a dollar this week. . . .sheesh.

Pizz

i disagree. if the stocks dont move soon people will swear off them. nope there are always those who are lured by wall st. people still buying even after 3 down years and will continue to do so. It is not clearly over if the stocks do not move (and what is move) when the pog reaches 400 us fiat federal reserve notes. Murphy bless his heat for his efforts isnt a seer and he doesnt know everyone who holds gold stocks. Hope and trust in yourself rather than murphy and sinclare. that conviction is way better than any trust or hope.

Well Guys,im well aware the juniors have done well as has for example nevsun.But i am now pondering at which point these large caps will do less than physical itself.As for KInross it was a 3 to 1 reverse split from the merger,dont get fooled by that one.At the end of the day it ended at 3.51(x3)=10.51.When i look at the big caps their current prices seem low.Gold has made a big move through december and january while kinross,goldcorp,bema all linger in my opinion.My quandry isnt the smaller ones(jrs) but rather the big caps.As we know juniors can be more of a gamble'so here is my question.If at some point the physical itself accelerates faster than the stocks then isnt it wiser to jump onto physical during the next correction?I trust physical but have read a litany of scenarios,nationalization of mines,massive shorts and even sinclair who i do trust as a pro says at some point physical will outrun the stocks.Whatever happens these men are not to blame.What im looking for is an opinion on when to jump from big caps to 100 percent physical?In my mind once these stocks roll,im gonna peel into more and more physical.My problem steady as you know,is i travel a lot and cant just lug 100's of oz's through every airport,believe me i had trouble with just one euro(gold and silver)coin they thought was a bomb!So here is the problem for those far wiser than me at what point does one cash in on the big caps and sleep snugly on a bed of physical?By the way i lost ur number ,can we exchange emails again?And also what is the safest way to store all this physical?Im forced into paper for now,or is it trapped lol?But at some point im moving to something a little harder to shall we say manipulate?

Mr. Veneroso's May 17 2002 analysis Hello Daniel. Comments today sent me back to your 96488 post of yesterday wherein you commented on an article by Frank Veneroso. You fooled me by calling this a recent analysis. I know, it's a relative term but for the record, this analysis, as noted in your post, is from May 17, 2002.

You pointed out three points made by Mr. Veneroso. The first that his opinion was that there was manipulation in the gold market and this manipulation was being done by the central banks. I've noticed over the years that many influencial analysts, who have to choose their words carefully, have eventually admitted as much. I do not believe too many markets are entirely "free".

The third point is Mr. Veneroso's statement that a market "managed by official sector" will eventually see a failure of this manipulation. I'm always encouraged when I hear the opinion that the market forces of supply and demand will eventually overpower undue influence. Being that this was written eight months ago I wonder if the last two months POG move from about $320 to its present $370 or so would qualify (in Mr. Veneroso's mind) as that failure that he predicted? Perhaps not the entire failure but, at least the beginning of that failure of manipulation?
That's points one and three, more on point two...
Rich

Point two Point two from your assessment of Mr. Veneroso as quoted in 96488...



Second, he suggests that while aggregate short positions -- particularly those of gold producers -- in the futures and forward markets may have been substantially reduced, aggregate gold loans by central banks have not. Indeed, they have continued to grow, and cannot be reduced as long as physical demand for fabrication and bar hoarding exceeds new mine supply, scrap recovery and official sales. Accordingly, any reduction in aggregate short positions in the futures and forward markets has resulted from intervention by the official sector, which, as he puts it, 'has quietly taken the gold shorts from private speculators and producers and transferred them to their books. In other words, the official sector has intervened to prevent an explosive gold derivative crisis.'

(Me) It is stated that aggregate gold loans can not be repaid because there simply isn't enough supply from which to repay. This statement assumes that the real, actual, physical gold left the central banks and is (as sector and many others contend) "gone". What if the gold never left? Maybe it was leased, loaned, sold, encumbered, turned into fiat, etc. but never left the vaults. If so, and the whole scam is a paper trade, could not, then, the whole thing be unwound in fiat settlement? This will raise the POG as much as the paper selling depressed it but, until someone fiqures out how much gold really still exists, the possibility will exist that this paper charade fulfilled a purpose other than dishoarding physical gold. Forget all the paper games! How much PHYSICAL central bank gold was there, in storage, 10 years ago? How much is there now? Forget all the liens and titles, that can all be settled in the fiat account statements. How much physical is really gone???

If this paper short position was then transfered to the futures or forward markets and, knowing that nearly all futures contracts are offset in fiat only (very, very little delivery in comparison to the amount under contract), then does this not confirm or strengthen my supposition that the central bank short position was established mostly on paper? The physical is still safe collecting dust in the vaults but, this again, will by no means let the shorts off the hook. If indeed, even a small portion of the mentioned 5,000 to 16,000 tons shorted is transfered to the futures markets for eventual offset, then POG in at least four figures is (imho) assured. I would guess that some less painful monetary settlement may have been initiated in those particular OTC contracts involving liens on central bank gold holdings but this "supposins" is only a guess. I tend to analysis situations from a trader's point of view. This is occasionally somewhat different than the prevailing opinion but hopefully adds balance to the analysis. Fiat settlement of POG obligations may greatly raise the POG but will not cause any monetary crisis. Debt, poor governance and the very nature of fiat paper money along with years of economic mismanagement will destroy the present system.

Also, it is obvious that some physical has been dishoarded and is "gone" as in "consummed" over the years. This is evident from the simple fact that demand is greater than all production on a yearly basis. This is also true of silver :>)
Thoughts?
Rich

China and goldWriter Barrie Dunstan in todays Australian Financial Review cites the latest FullerMoney newsletter of 31Jan03 which has a long article on China's potential role in the gold market. (Need to be a subscriber to access the article at the link.)

Some points include:

> China's foreign reserves growing rapidly

> yuan will eventually be allowed to float, rather than pegged to US$...will revalue upwards

> this will imply a foreign currency loss for China on its US$ reserves

> implies China will diversify out of US$ reserves into Euro and especially gold

> claims China bought $1B worth of gold in Dec 02 increasing its reserves to 19.3 M oz

> argues China will buy more gold while price is low

> emphasises the tightness in physical supply
and the reluctance of CBs to sell more gold

> other big players are in the market for more gold

> argues that the worlds investors are underweight gold

Very bullish scenario...

Spot currently admiring the view from $373 - perhaps he is wondering what lies over the hill?

GREAT JUMPING, SPIKE !!! Hold it here just a little under that $375. "barrier" and let SPOT catch his breath !
TO THE MOON, Alice !
<;-)

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=574&ncid=721&e=1&u=/nm/20030203/wl_nm/korea_usa_dcIs it getting hotter in here or is it just me.

Thanks for the heads up .....

I was verging on manic delight when the reality of your message made me again aware of the gravity of the situation with the stocks....

However....I would like to add at this point ,

"Don't Worry , Be Happy......"...I think the springed coil in the Mining Stocks (HUI) is about to unwind ........

Is it is sign of things to come?Now that you bring it up--YES.

I mentioned yesterday that the HUI would double. Kinross pretty much doubled. With over 2 million four hundred thousand shares shorted this little shooting star may not be through any time too soon.

All the gold mutual funds sitting on tens of millions of recent inflow dollars, waiting for pog to retrace $30-$40 are themselves now locked out of any big run in Kinross after today's 193% run. The train left. Thy weren't on it. Their funds cannot enjoy that gain. BTW KGC is a very good stock to trade in and out of as its beta is way up there but if you went for coffee, you lost.

It was short covering...just like the coming short covering rally in the HUI. Only this HUI rally won't fall back. Because the gold price isn't going to fall back. The HUI will discount the year end gold price as it will be effected by a depreciating yen, euro and especially dollar.

Today's Kinross action vindicates the policy of buy and hold for the gold shares. One could never know exactly when the short-covering would begin so a buy and hold was the only way to assure a profit. Nimble traders were toasted today as they ordered their mocha lattes.

The crucial fact to appreciate here is that the price of gold is being held in check [On a ramp to $630 by year's end] by official selling. ONLY official selling. They are retreating, trying to conserve bullion.

Others here continue to imagine that bullion that has been swapped, loaned or forward sold is somehow still the property of the central banks. Even though some of the gold still resides in the central banks, it no longer belongs to the central banks that loaned it. it cannot be somehow confiscated back into the ownership of the central banks. It's gone to them as a useful asset in the gold war.

Their gold is called a "Receivable" on the central bank books. In reality it is a conditional receivable. The condition is that the world's gold price remains close to the original contract price, which it hasn't and that their counter parties who sold the gold into the world's markets can get it back.

So the price of gold is headed up as the rush to redeem gold shorts begins and the shares are set to bang upwards like Kinross did today.

Send out for your Starbucks.

I know that Mikal also made that same point about volatility last summer - that it would get worse, and I made a mental note to remember that - then when it happens it's not a suprise. You've reiterated it, and it was also stated at the Vancouver Gold conference. What I'm not entirely clear on is WHY? Why the big swings (and bigger ones in the future)? Is it the technical traders, the cabal manipulation, the shorts? A combination of factors? Do you know if these big swings occured back in the 70s and early 80s? Appreciate your thoughts. TIA, and Cheers,
Waverider

Actually I think Sector just answered part of my question.

Actually kinross shareholders lost value today.It was a 3 to 1 reverse split based on predetermined agreements in the merger.So kinross finished the day at 10.51 divided by three.In other words at the end of the day Kinross shareholders held one third as many stocks ie 3000 on friday was 1000 today.People might have sold from all the excitement only to find they sold at 3.51.Nothing to get excited about unless you wanted to buy more.Kinross was down 4 percent on the news,check the reverse split.Nevsun was better up over 9 percent.For my money gimme physical ,there are no 3 to 1 reverse splits.

PH in LA (2/3/03; 07:51:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 96527)

Since the whole system relies on keeping investors in the dark,


HA! Thats it! Thats a riot! Funniest thing I've heard in a quite a while, and so true! Well said...


it strikes me, also, that a very "serviceable" surprise would be the breakaway move in POG coinciding with the outbreak of war. Such an event would shock the maximum number of investors and give the maximum advantage to the manipulators.


Do you think they will let the paper price rise so that small investors will get on the train, while they are going short? "Maximum advantage" could mean playing off the hysterical tendency of the public to buy anything that looks like its going up, if I catch your drift right.

I have a feeling that the major use of the Comex paper gold market is not to shake dollars out of small investors. (Although that might be a side benefit)

It seems that its main purpose is to massage public perception about the relative worth of the US Dollar. If ESF funds are thrown into the trading floor to keep the price down, its a small loss if those contracts later need a cash settlement, when compared to the big picture of USD hedgemony, and oil-for-dollars trade.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030203/markets_japan_commodities_1.htmlReuters
TOCOM logs record volume as war drums get louder
Monday February 3, 4:00 am ET

TOKYO, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Japan's biggest commodity futures exchange did more business on Monday than on any other day of its half-century existence as darkening war clouds over Iraq sent speculators rushing to deal in oil and precious metals.

Turnover of all contracts on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange came to a staggering 693,009 lots, well up from a previous record of 612,537 lots logged on December 19.

The shopping spree came as Washington prepared to make its case against Baghdad to the United Nations Security Council -- an event many players see as a key step on the road to war in the Gulf.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell visits the Security Council on Wednesday to offer what Washington says is proof Iraq has not disarmed.

Speculators have flocked to gold, known traditionally as a safe haven in times of trouble. They have also poured money into yen-based kerosene and gasoline contracts, mindful of the threat war could pose to world oil supplies.

Gold (0#JAU:) was the hottest item on TOCOM on Monday, with turnover clocking in at 254,831 lots or 254.8 tonnes as investors sent the benchmark December contract (JAUZ3) leaping to new eight-year highs.

Sector, my friend, are we starting to agree?

Your words.....

Others here continue to imagine that bullion that has been swapped, loaned or forward sold is somehow still the property of the central banks. Even though some of the gold still resides in the central banks, it no longer belongs to the central banks that loaned it. it cannot be somehow confiscated back into the ownership of the central banks. It's gone to them as a useful asset in the gold war.

I never said that gold was still the property of the central banks. I did say that whether leased, sold, under liens of any kind that the PHYSICAL was still there so, whatever monetary obligations do exist can be settled as just that- monetary obligations, pluses and minuses on balance sheets. Is most of the physical still safely stored where it always was? I believe so but would love to see the total central bank holdings for today and ten years ago. But these figures will be distorted as some is, as you correctly say, leased, reclassified, or otherwise encumbered. It wouldn't surprise me if a condition of the original leases was that the physical was NOT to be moved. The banks do not need to confiscate back anything. The only thing needful (owed) to the central banks is to either release or repay the lease but the loan was never physical metal, just silly paper games. Offsetting those leases owed by bullion banks and others to the central banks will be costly! Just because it is not physical does NOT mean it will not cost them some serious cash. Those that did not somehow hedge will lose bigtime. Either way, I've no sympathy for them and either way, POG with some real short covering behind it will, perhaps, amaze even the staunchest goldbugs among us. Then perhaps some billions of dollars in trend following investors as a sort of afterburner effect and there we'll be- "to da moon".
Keep up the great GATA work!
Rich

I stand corrected on ther 3 for 1 share consolidation.I don't own any KGC .

I am just as excited as everyone over the steady rise in POG. The Gold/Silver ratio continues to rise. May I get an estimate on the silver situation. I have seen comments here saying as "joe sixpak" sees the gold price rise, he would invest in silver. Thank you "Silver get you some"

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B19FA2F41%2DF7D3%2D4EE2%2DBA60%2D4BD72CCFF2F8%7D&siteid=mktwWhat I call the Down-the-Dow-Staircase average will suffer 1,000-point daily losses -- in coming weeks, months and years. A decade of 40x price-earnings multiples for America's "best" companies does not end with mere slippage to 7,000 Dow, or 6,000 Dow, or 5,000 Dow.

A decade of low interest rates does not justify multiplying a company's earnings by 40 or 50, then delivering a fat check to a broker in return for a certificate, or an electronic confirmation. The Dow's 30 companies, with a market worth of $2.5 trillion, represent 25 percent of the $10 trillion market of U.S. stocks. Just 25 percent. Yet the influence of this headline index grows daily, in good times and bad.

The scandal is that unlike most reliable equity indexes, the Dow is a price-weighted index influenced in large part by the biggest-number stocks in the gauge. That means stocks with high dollar prices - and there are two I have in mind -- wield enormous influence on both the index itself and investors across the globe who digest the incessant Dow headlines. When these two get knocked from their perches, the overpriced Dow is on its way down the Dow staircase. Read my clips: Why the Dow is worthless - and gold is priceless.
__________________
This is a Tom Calandra article from MarketWatch.
Its a great read with comments and opinions from several
market analysts. There are also links to other good articles.

Tom goes over a lot of what he said at the Vancouver Conference.

..at least those that report, will appear soonAnd it tends to confirm that the gold is gone from the cenrtral banbks in about the same ratio as their loans -- 50% gone -- as in not in the central bank vaults.

Portugal does not have 68% of the gold they swapped. They report this in their annual report for 2001 and in earlier annual reports. They are one of the few Euro Area banks that report gold holdings. The others that report also indicate the absence of gold their vaults relating to loans, swaps and forward sales consistent with the thesis that 14-16,000 thousand tonnes of central bank gold that has been loaned, swapped or sold forwrad has been physically removed and is no longer present in their vaults.

Kitco is still showing +$3.10 !

Will tomorrow bring the much anticipated and often mentioned gap opening on Comex? Does anyone care? Yes, the technical chart readers believe this is very potent stuff.
Me? I'm just estatic to be able to watch the price rise. Now, if something would just kick-start silver, I will become intolerably overjoyed.
However, I will work hard to restrain myself. (:>)
Don't worry, the market doesn't respond to anyone, only itself, so no one can jinx it. It's not like mentioning a no-hitter in baseball during the game.
Rich

Yeah, my account looked great until they adjusted the stock quantity :>( However, I think the split was so the shares in the new company 1/ are still marginable (TVX was in the teens)and 2/ can be bought by mutual funds.

It's interesting how the strength has move east - spot at around $373.5 as I type. I can only remember seeing this yesterday, the middle of last week, and a couple of times last year. Usually, it's nearly a flat line. Even if the ratio of contracts to physical delivery stays the same, the increased interest would fuel a significant increase in metal demand.

Sector, if that much physical is really gone, and not just moved to another central bank, then Adam Hamilton's projection of many, many thousands of dollars/ounce may be very doable. Any links or sources?? Also, where did it go as in who now holds it? TIA

Silver Hoard, are you familar with an expression call "the patience of Job"? It may be necessary to have such with silver but I, for one, still think silver prices will explode one day fairly soon. Both Butler and Morgan have vocalized the notion that an industrial physical shortage involving non-delivery of just-in-time needed supplies might be necessary to awaken the market? Patience?
Rich

WASHINGTON (AFX) - President George Bush is requesting a 42 pct increase in the Securities and Exchange Commission's budget to 842 mln usd for 2004 from Congress following a flurry of corporate scandals and some of the largest business collapses in US history.

The requested rise in the securities regulator's 2004 budget from 594 mln usd in 2003 and 489 mln in 2002 was revealed today in a new White House budget request released by the administration.

The president indicated in a recent radio address that he would be seeking additional funding for the SEC, Bush noted that an end to corporate wrongdoing would help restore investors' confidence in the nation's financial markets which have fallen for three straight years in a row.

"The 2004 President's Budget calls for 842 million dollars for the SEC, nearly double the 2002 level. With it, the SEC will be able to hire more accountants, attorneys, and examiners to protect investors, root out fraud, and instill corporate responsibility," the president's budget request said.

James McConnell, SEC executive director, said in a telephone briefing with reporters that the president's budget request for 2004, if approved by Congress, will enable the SEC to hire 710 new staff to boost oversight of the nation's financial markets.

"This number is the largest budget increase we've ever had in the history of the agency," McConnell said in reference to the 2004 budget request.

"This increase will provide us with 710 new staff over our current operating levels," McConnell explained.
_______________
Scandal Inc. IPO coming soon?

The first thing that comes to mind when I hear the words "SEC" is government pork. But now that you have revealed the size of their new trough, I have to wonder what the agency intends to consume to sustain its new girth.

http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.htmlA MUST READ

This article has just been Updated since it was first published in December. It now adds to the Article the major changes to the Currency Wars such as Russia tying their currency reserves 10 % to Gold.

It is updated to the end of January 2003.

This is one of the most Brilliant Essays that I have ever read on the Internet.

The article will be out soonAs for the loans. In order for the loans to be effective in suppressing the gold price, they must be routed through the COMEX, LBMA or TOCOM as available metal to borrow and then sell, and not as a transaction with other central banks as that would not appear on the markets in the form of trader positions or derivatives.

It's interesting also that Berkshier Hathaway today announced they still had all their silver and more importantly they bought it below market prices which served to support the price during their acquisitions.

Yes, well worth the time to read it.

Mikal, all those new attorneys will be dredging up crud after
corporate crud and bottom feeders. Grab some popcorn and pull
up a chair for the next 10 years!

Look at Platinum GO!

Buffett still has his silver! Where do you come up with these gems!

Tks.

"Dredging up crud for many years..." I would expect some justice, yet, can they be counted on to be as objective as say, the IRS or the old SEC, using selective enforcement and political targeting? And must they be over-financed through deficit spending, like every other department, agency or division of government? When will they be satisfied with an operations budget that grows less than an annual Congressional pay raise?

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Waverider: Volitility equals high demand and thin float for up markets. PM's

Volitility equals low demand and heavy float for down drafts (the coming market "correction")

Pizz

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2003/20030203/default.htmYes, he spoke today. Look for the code words.

Comments appreciated.

Thank You

An important example is the international gold standard, the dominant monetary system of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.

Under the gold standard, at least in principle, the central bank's responsibility regarding monetary policy extended only so far as ensuring that the value of the currency in terms of gold was stabilized at the legally specified value.

In short, under a strict gold standard the monetary policy rule would be, "Maintain the price of gold at so many dollars per ounce." Although the gold standard system malfunctioned and ultimately collapsed during the chaotic economic and financial conditions that followed World War I, many economic historians have credited it with promoting price stability and robust international trade and capital flows during 1870-1913, the so-called classical gold standard era.

1 Another example of a rule-like monetary policy institution is a currency board, such as the ones currently employed by Hong Kong and several eastern European nations.

On the other side of the debate, advocates of discretion have firmly rejected the use of strict rules for policy, arguing that central bankers must be left free to set monetary policy as they see fit, based on their best judgment and the use of all relevant information. Supporters of discretion contend that policy rules of the type advocated by Friedman are simply too mechanical and inflexible for use in real world policymaking; in particular, simple rules cannot fully accommodate special circumstances or unanticipated events.

2 During the past few decades, for example, financial innovation and new transactions technologies have led to large and difficult-to-predict changes in the empirical relationship between money growth and the rates of growth of output and prices. If central banks had slavishly followed Friedman's k-percent rule for money growth during this period, critics point out, substantial economic instability would have been the likely result; indeed, most central banks have de-emphasized money growth as a policy target or indicator in recent years. More generally, opponents of rules have argued that, as a practical matter, policymakers can never credibly commit to abandoning discretion in favor of supposedly "unbreakable" rules.

3 The problem, this argument runs, is that the public will understand that the central bank always has the option of abandoning its rule, should the rule happen to dictate a policy action perceived at the time as counterproductive. Hence, an announcement by the central bank that it is adopting a strict policy rule would carry little credibility.

When POG reaches $1,000/ounce, a $10.00 move will only be a 1% move. Today, POG has gained 1.08% since the Comex close.

Sector, we definitely need some confirmation as to what news service or perhaps a link pertaining to information about Buffett still holding his 130 million ounces of silver. TIA
Rich

http://news.goldseek.com/ProteusCapital/1044293005.phpThe disconnection between gold stocks and the price of the metal continues � and is actually increasing. Our analysis of the historic relationship between gold stocks and the bullion price indicates fair value for the XAU at 97.0 based on Friday's closing gold price of $368 per ounce � the 95% confidence range is 69 to 125. With the XAU at 77.0, it would have to gain 26% to return to the normal relationship, with the potential to gain 62% to return to the high end of the range.

Looked at the other way around, gold shares are currently discounting a gold price of approximately $315 per ounce. That implies that gold stocks are ignoring the last 20% rise in the gold price.

Cytek - looks like i'm buyin more bullion and more mining stocks, soon the mines will catchup.

Your verging on manic delight was briefly matched by my chair breaking under me as I had unloaded most of my mines, including Kinross, last Friday, to buy the metal itself.

I'm not particularly concerned now about mine share jumps because I believe to not be in the metal itself represents increasing folly. I had liked to think of the mines and their owners as my friends, partners in our belief of gold as wealth and the end of its period of manipulation, and I did benefit by their rise--although its been mostly a zero sum game since June'02. On further consideration, my general distain for Wall Street and their ability to see all what is going on in the way of short and long positions makes stock holding a gamble at best, and outright criminal manipulation at worst. The mine managements I'm sure are not above being bought out by these creeps, not to mention the probability of nationalization of the mines and a commodity price paid to share holders.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/02/03/1044122320739.html
US chooses Saddam's successor
By Tom Allard, Foreign Affairs Writer
February 4 2003

The United States has chosen a successor to Saddam Hussein from Iraq's notoriously fractious opposition groups, according to a former Iraqi diplomat who lives in Sydney.

Mohamed al-Jabiri, who has just returned from in talks with Washington, said the White House has given its "blessing" to the head of the Iraqi National Congress, Ahmed Chalabi, to lead a transitional coalition government in Iraq once Saddam has been deposed.

Dr al-Jabiri, who talked to Mr Chalabi over the phone last month, said: "He told me that he would take over. He has the blessing of the White House and the State Department."

He said Mr Chalabi had been in talks with another major Iraqi opposition group, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq and the Iranian Government while in Tehran.


Cytek - Guess they got everything figured out.

Hi. Had to respond on the silver issue. Check out my posts 1-21-03-message#95171, 1-23-03-message#95386, 1-24-03-message#95537. I have been in the physical metals big time for 35 years, but of course except for the mintage figures in the earliest post all of the info is an estimate on my part. So as always do your own due diligence.As R Powell said earlier that silver is requiring "the patience of Job", but when that fuse is lit it will be waterproof'short and wedged so tighly in the "explosives" that it can not be pulled out. Will not reveal my other positions but i am sitting on over 11 metric tonnes of ag. so i practice what i preach.
Also something to think about is if all metals explode in USD value would you really trade them for paper? I only would if i thought that some somewhat current version of the dollar would be valid for everyday domestic transactions/commerce. I also feel personally that my positions in this and other arenas requires a responsibility of me to help my fellow man if TSHTF, but this opinion is only my own and would not try to sway the beliefs of yourself or anyone else. Read all the world-class postings of the regular and long-time members of this forum and what you see as the path for your future will come to you. It might include the opinions of others but it will feel right to you and prove itself in hindsight.
As always DYODD,IMVHO

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/telecom/2003-01-31-worldcom-cuts_x.htm
Snippit:

Beleaguered telecom giant WorldCom, in a bid to slash costs for its planned turnaround, said Monday that it will cut about 8% of its workforce, or 5,000 jobs, and trim annual costs by $2.5 billion.

Black Blade: More "Bones" cast upon the growing "Bone Pile". Ya just gotta love the euphemisms from the stock infomercial channel (aka CNBC) � "Jobless recovery". Well, it's half right.

Like I told you, unless you let SPOT catch up with you --- They will cover you with PAPER and you have to drop back !!
Please go slower WITH SPOT and then the TWO of you can BITE 'em !!!
$375 tonight is EASY !
How about $380 tomorrow in NY ?
NAW -- make that $387 !!!
<;-)

<;-)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2719889.stm
Snippit:

German retail sales fell last year for the first time since 1997, as recession-hit consumers reined in spending. For 2002 as a whole, retail sales declined by 2.3%, their worst performance since records began two decades ago. Especially gloomy are month-by-month figures, which show an apparent slowing of sales during the year, contradicting the impression that Germany may be recovering from its slump of a year ago.

Black Blade: It doesn't look very good for most economies.

It's hard to say how it will play out just yet as London has been a little rough on spot. This is the home of PM trading branches that set up shop after leaving the US due to more strict reporting requirements. Note that JP Morgan Chase closed their NY branch last year and set up in London. As each new barrier is passed and held the banks and investment houses regroup and defend the next barrier in a tactical retreat. It gets more difficult for them as more and more physical is withdrawn from the market so they float more and more paper in hopes of fending off the day of reckoning. Until the grand finale we get to have fun watching as they dig themselves into a deeper hole. Cheers!

- Black Blade

From a Silver website,

Silver appreciated rapidly in most Asian currencies, but in US dollars, nothing happened. Before that there was Mexico. During the Mexico crisis, silver went from around five something to over $11 almost overnight. So that is a good prelude to what could happen in a monetary crisis.

and from Fall Street.com

Thanks in large part to the tight-rope rally in the stock market � a rally that with each step higher seems to presage an even greater fall -- the possibility of an �economic rebound� appears to be within grasp. However, when you start believing that such a rebound is sustainable, or that the circles need not be filled in this go round, what you are really doing is accepting the notion that for the first time ever the consumer can exit a recessionary period in worse financial shape than when they went in.

In order for volatile movements in income and layoffs to be smoothed out consumer demand must be steady and/or strong: demand must be strong enough for companies to raise prices before any trickle down impact from increases in profitability meets employees, and demand must be steady enough so that companies stop laying off workers. Suffice it to say, that the consumer has recently developed a tendency to save more money and borrow less (none) suggests that layoffs and income trends are not about to smooth out anytime soon.

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=DriPr&ARTICLE_ID=167638
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Feb. 3 -- Raymond James & Associates Inc. said its pre-reporting fourth quarter 2002 US natural gas production survey suggests a sixth consecutive quarterly decline, analyst Marshall Adkins said. The survey covered 29 of the largest US gas producers and represented 45% of total US production. RJA estimates a 0.6% decline by quarter sequentially and a 4.6% decline on a year-over-year basis. "Given the wide disparity in guidance, historical overly optimistic guidance, and the fact that weather in the fourth quarter was terrible, it is our belief that actual reported production will end up being much lower than the production guidance presented," Adkins said in a Jan. 21 research note. "Furthermore, although the rig count bottomed in late March/early April, drilling activity has yet to increase to a level sufficient to overcome natural declines. Consequently, we are likely to continue seeing sequential declines in production for the foreseeable future," Adkins said.

Black Blade: The NG inventory decline and higher cost is more of a problem than oil. Looks like another energy crisis in the making that will thrust the economy deeper into recession.

You asked earlier if I believed this essay.

Yes I do believe this piece, and if I did not I would have to choose between several clearly defective and unacceptable reasons for this oncoming war. I also believe that there is more than a little imperialism in "OUR" intentions.

I also believe that the unintended consequences of our belligerence will be far greater than is generally expected.

Reference (17) to this essay by Stan Goff is a little leftist, but there is a brilliant sentence in a paragraph near the end:

"As in Argentina, when the inevitable tumble into severe economic polarization happens, those who count themselves "middle class" will be rapidly pauperized as the banking system closes its doors to appropriate their savings."

Better than the simple 'got gold'.

As you wait for 400, and mention Sinclair, doesnt he mention on his website that unless folks like you take possesion of your stocks in hand, then the shorts will continue to control that market?

He says rumor has it that his push for owners to take possession of thier stock cert.s has resulted in requests for "millions" of stock certs.
He has no proof of that, and as you mention, you see no evidence that the shorts are losing control, so maybe you guessed correctly with one of your guesses.
Good Luck with your choice.

http://www.rense.com/general34/realre.htmI post very rarely here. I do only when I feel I have something important to convey. I believe that this is one of the MOST IMPORTANT articles I have read in many years. It is long but confirms all what Another and FOA/Trail Guide have said about crucial links between oil-euro-US dollar-gold. Anybody who wants to understand what is really is behind current politics MUST read this.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030202wo01.htmSnippit:
"Koizumi has been ignorant of how much the economic situation has deteriorated since the start of his administration in late April 2001. Observers pointed out that, if things continue as they stand, the goal of economic rehabilitation will only retreat further. Koizumi said in last year's policy speech that he would pay careful attention to keeping the economy from falling into a deflationary spiral and the government would take more determined measures to overcome deflation in cooperation with the Bank of Japan. In contrast, in his policy speech this year, Koizumi said only that the government and central bank would work together to tackle deflation. Since his inauguration as prime minister, Koizumi has been little aware of the seriousness of deflation.

With Koizumi lacking both a sense of crisis and the appropriate policies to tackle deflation, the economic situation has worsened since his inauguration as prime minister. The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average has fallen from the 14,000 level immediately after the prime minister commenced his term in office in April 2001 to the 8,300 level, with the market value of stocks listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange dropping from 382 trillion yen to 237 trillion yen as of Thursday.

Takuro Morinaga, UFJ Research Institute chief researcher, said: "The Koizumi Cabinet's failed policies have aggravated deflation, but the prime minister didn't show any remorse in his policy speech. The economy will fall into an unrecoverable state unless the prime minister changes his policy by introducing an inflation target, for example."

Waverider: A new Bank of Japan governor will be chosen around Feb. 20, earlier than first expected. Inflation targets sound inevitable.

www.financialsense.com/editorials/veneroso.htmMr. Veneroso's Updated Analysis

� 2002 Frank Veneroso & Declan Costelleo
Messrs. Venerosa & Costelleo's article was originally published on www.lemetropolecafe.com
December 2, 2002

The above appeared at the end of Mr. John Brimlow's conclusion from Financial Sense, which was included in Mr. Howe's article. I checked my #96488 and couldn't find where I used the words, "Recent Analysis". However, December 2, 2002 is relatively recent which would account for your use of that word.

"Perhaps Mr. Howe is incorrect when he speaks of Mr. Veneroso's updated analysis as containing 'three new points worthy of mention.'" I was quoting Mr. Howe and I assure you that I was not trying to fool the group.

R Powell: "The third point is Mr. Veneroso's statement that a market "managed by official sector" will eventually see a failure of this manipulation. I'm always encouraged when I hear the opinion that the market forces of supply and demand will eventually overpower undue influence. Being that this was written eight months ago I wonder if the last two months POG move from about $320 to its present $370 or so would qualify (in Mr. Veneroso's mind) as that failure that he predicted? Perhaps not the entire failure but, at least the beginning of that failure of manipulation?"

I certainly would not dare to speak for Mr. Veneroso but I do know that he was not convinced that Japanese buying would overwhelm the official sector this past May. However, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to learn that his thoughts have changed with the timing of this second Nipponese go around; but for now, I'm especially interested in your thoughts on Market Shock, the possibility mentioned in the third point, which you may have missed.

I agree with you entirely regarding actual movement of our gold from our control. I assume and I hope that our guys still have control of the vault. If we owe anybody some fiat, no problem...Governor Bernanke says we can put the printing presses to work. What a system! The absurdity of it kinda brings a smile to my face.

So you're the silver king here...I like it.

Thank you

"Also something to think about is if all metals explode in USD value would you really trade them for paper?"

Exactly.

Thank you

Am I reading this correctly?

James Sinclair, CEO Tan Range
tnxinvestor@zoolink.com

Why sit back and be taken advantage of? Why let the wise guys who have fought the up-move in gold from their derivative trading desks also damage your gold share position without doing something to help yourself? This gold community should stop taking the hits and stop walking away unhappy. The short positions that exist in almost every gold share, in sizes of shares sold short, are beyond reason. In some companies, the short is so big that I firmly believe the entire float has been shorted. I have explained this phenomenon to you. It has robbed you of a proper valuation of your shares in light of the strong, and soon to be stronger, gold price. Gold is going over $400 - do you want to see your gold shares languish? Well, if you do nothing and let yourself be taken advantage of, then you do not deserve anything better.

My suggestion to you is get moving and nail the culprits that are picking your pockets.

There is something that you can do that is as effective as RAID on a BUG,
but you have to do it now:

Take Physical Delivery of Your Share Certificates Immediately!

This is not because I fear any financial problems with your brokers, but rather it is because taking delivery of your shares will stop the short selling and increase the risk significantly to the present outrageous short positions that have accumulated in your gold shares. It is the lending of your shares that has allowed the legal shorts to exist. Therefore, you have allowed these wise guys to sell the shares short to the degree that they have hung themselves, if you will only act. I would even suggest that those on margin sell something else to pay off your margin debt and take delivery.
**************************************
R Powell (01/24/03; 21:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 95541)
Sector
Commodity short selling
From Sector,....
"If it could, the price would stay down. There must be an originating title transfer of physical tonnage gold in order to establish the paper metal used on the markets to short gold. This causes a loss of ownership and associated claims at central banks for the bars and delivery [Deliveries are staggered by loan maturity dates]. This delivery may be outside the COMEX or LBMA's operational scope."

This is simply not true. Anyone with an account can buy or sell on the commodities markets. With one phone call I can sell gold or any commodity I choose. The only requirement is margin to ensure payment to the counterparty.
Where is the "originating title transfer of physical" behind the short position in silver? Ted Butler has been complaining about more silver shorted on Comex than exists on all the world's exchanges combined!
There does NOT have to exist any transfer of title to physical gold in order to short gold. The whole speculative category of traders are so-called because they do not produce nor do they use the commodities they speculate in.
I have sold silver, frozen orange juice, corn, soybean oil and many other things that I never held title to!! Selling short does NOT require any titles, ownership, or borrowing in any way, shape or form. Unlike stock short selling which (I believe) requires borrowing shares to sell, selling gold on Comex requires no borrowing, only a buyer. Commodity speculative shorting does not even imply any intent to deliver as long as the position is offset by first notice day.
Believe me, short selling requires no title transfer, ownership or borrowing. Selling that which one does not possess is a hard concept, think of it as crazy rules in a funny game if that helps. Now, how about the Comex short silver position which totals more silver than exists! Strange but true.
Rich

Uh, believe I missed this line.
"Unlike stock short selling which (I believe) requires borrowing shares to sell, selling gold on Comex requires no borrowing, only a buyer"

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=3Heading towards $376.00

SPIKE IS ROLLIN' They're there.

OH NO! The pets of the forum just got covered in paper!

http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.htmlDear Foreigner

See my Post # 96590 where I recommended the Article that just did in your Post # 96613.

The only reason that I am pointing this out to you and anyone else interested is that the link above includes an Update on the Essay by the Author.

I checked and he Updated it as of January 26TH. He adds some more very interesting items and it is very interesting to see the drop in the US Dollar since his original article which he discusses in his update. Enjoy...

Are you ready and waiting, to come onstage when we need you? The fat lady may not be ready to sing, but we hope you could maybe hum a favorite tune or two?

Dollar (or two) a day? I could get used to this...

Y'know, they "managed" gold for two decades -- flat, then down, then largely flat at 300. Now, maybe, they're managing it up, or perhaps trying to control a runaway train gathering momentum?

We were always told here to "follow in the footsteps of Giants", but I never could see any of 'em on the trail ahead. I was more afraid they were all BEHIND us, and we were likely to get trampled if we sat around and waited to find out. So, keeping moving was a good idea...and being a "small dog" isn't so bad, sometimes. Woof!

http://slate.msn.com/id/2078063I wrote about this topic last week. The situation is rapidly getting out of hand as I predicted.

I wonder if this is helping Gold out.

The Article in the Link above gives a pretty good summary of the entire situation up to Friday or so.

Monday, Rumsfeld Put the B-52 Bombers on Alert.

Wednesday should be an interestng day at the UN.

JUMP JUMP JUMP !!!
How about $380 tonight NOW SPOT ?
Let us see how you can BITE !!
See SPOT JUMP !!
<;-)
WOWSERS !!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=3Just took out $376. for the SECOND time !
About 40 minutes until THE CITY gets to show the "FIX".
THEN the REAL SHOW will be after HIGH NOON in NY !!
<;-)

On the February 2 James Sinclair stated that if gold were to close at $371.5 or higher, it would rise rapidly above $400. And that the "First Two Weeks of February Have Super Bullish Potential Implications".

One of his favorite prediction devices is to compute at what spot price the big shorts' risk avoidance software programs will automatically cause them to cover.

I wonder if it is only a close at certain prices which precipitates action, or if interday (or internight) spikes will also suffice?

Since presently they are so lively, why not have Spot and Spike test out this hypothesis tonight---or this morning? In the interests of science!

Note that not so long ago, IRAN decided to repatriate all its "Physical" Gold-reserves from London to Teheran !!!
Are they (Iran) suggesting we should do the same and move Physical Gold out of the CPM-vaults (Denver) to our personal secret places, all over the world ? Think strongly so...NOW ! (smiles, please)

I agree with what you said about the SEC being political a lot of the time and it should be reasonably budgeted. The administration
seems almost desperate to try anything to help the market and
they are trying to restore investor confidence super quick with
dramatic moves. A 42% increase in the SEC is unprecendented!

Bush is really throwing a lot of money at just about anything these
days. Smacks of economic desperation. We will see huge deficits
for many years into the future and this bodes well for a bull
market for PMs that will last for quite a long time. IMO

I go away for a few hours and look what happens... $376!

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Cfvxy%2Ctnxy%2Cgcg03.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=15&go.y=14After fairly benign activity in the Bond pit's we're now beginning to see a shift in the short/long spread...this will bear watching imo.
It may be just Goldbug cynicism but!
If GWB and co acquiese to the UN line at the proverbial "last-minute" WHAT/WHO would benefit the most?
The UN would...immensely!
The Dollar would!

The lame duck reasons for War could be a smokescreen to entrench the UN as Worldcop....and frisk poor old Goldbugs into the bargain.

Just a thought fwiw.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APj9ydBXZRnJlbmNoParis, Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- French consumer confidence fell to a five-year low in January as unemployment climbed, suggesting household spending in Europe's third-largest economy may lose steam.

An index based on a government survey of 2,000 households fell to minus 22 from minus 17 in December. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected a reading of minus 18.

``I don't expect to find a job right away,'' said Anna Cerda, a 26-year-old student, leaving a Gap Inc. clothing store in central Paris. ``I pay attention to what I spend and have been waiting for the discount sales.''

Optimism among French consumers is dwindling as companies including Pechiney SA, the world's fourth-biggest producer of aluminum, and Nexans SA, the world's largest cable maker, cut payrolls. The number of jobseekers climbed to a 28-month high of 2.45 million in December and the rate rose to 9.1 percent.

Consumer spending accounts for more than half of Europe's third-largest economy, and spared it from recession last year when growth in gross domestic product probably declined to 1 percent, the weakest since France's 1993 recession.

French car and light-truck sales fell 9.3 percent in January, as demand for older car models such as Renault SA's Clio and Laguna declined.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets were marginally lower and Euro markets are taking a hit this morning. Economic and geopolitical pressures are keeping equities markets under water and safe havens are doing well as the USD falls again in spite of Japanese intervention.

- Black Blade

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures are falling lower, the USD is lower, PMs and petroleum are solidly higher. If this should hold then the opening bell on Wall Street should be quite exciting.

- Black Blade

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/2722973.stmSenior British Army officers have been told to prepare for an occupation of Iraq lasting up to three years in the event of war, BBC News has learned.

MoD sources have also said many UK troops being sent to Kuwait would probably be used for peacekeeping and "rearguard" duties, rather than in frontline fighting.

TOKYO, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Japan's biggest commodity futures exchange logged its highest-ever volume for a second day running on Tuesday as gathering war clouds over Iraq sent speculators flocking to precious metals and energy contracts.

ADVERTISEMENTTurnover of all commodities on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange came to a staggering 739,006 lots, well up from Monday's 693,009 lots, the previous record.

The record came as Washington prepared to make its case against Iraq before the United Nations Security Council -- an event many see as a key step on the road to war in the Gulf.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell addresses the Security Council on Wednesday, pledging to provide "sober and compelling proof" that Baghdad is hiding banned weapons of mass destruction from arms inspectors.

Gold (0#JAU:) was the hottest item on TOCOM, with turnover clocking in at 294,510 lots or 294.5 tonnes -- up from Monday's 254,831 lots -- as investors sent the benchmark December contract (JAUZ3) bounding to an 11-year high.

Platinum (0#JPL:) was next in line, with a total volume of 169,826 lots, compared with 116,345 lots. Futures prices topped 12-year highs amid supply worries and forecasts of greater fuel-cell demand.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030204/markets_japan_commodities_1.html
Snippit:

TOKYO, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Japan's biggest commodity futures exchange logged its highest-ever volume for a second day running on Tuesday as gathering war clouds over Iraq sent speculators flocking to precious metals and energy contracts.

Black Blade: Looks like the Japanese have a yen for commodities. Anything but Yen.

Chirac and Blair : Both have to talk about military affairs (NATO + M.E.) against a background of severely detoriating economies. It is in such situations that one should expect the unexpected. Simply because the room for maneuvering is fastly narrowing. At certain points, all difficulties (economical/political) seem to confluent and demand drastic solutions that have been postponed for too long. The lists of stumbling blocks are endless. This can't be defined otherwise than "DRAMATIC" times, wich is much more strongly than interesting times !

If the POG should hold or even rise through $380 for example during NY trade it could trigger a hell of an explosive short covering rally and shake out a lot of short positions. It would be fun to see a lot of these players lose their shirts. It could do much the same to spear a lot of short positions in the PM shares as well. It would be fun to see a lot of LTCM types get their heads handed to them on a platter and go tits up in the process. Now that would be "entertainment"!

- Black Blade

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/02/03/1044122320739.htmlThe United States has chosen a successor to Saddam Hussein from Iraq's notoriously fractious opposition groups, according to a former Iraqi diplomat who lives in Sydney.

Mohamed al-Jabiri, who has just returned from in talks with Washington, said the White House has given its "blessing" to the head of the Iraqi National Congress, Ahmed Chalabi, to lead a transitional coalition government in Iraq once Saddam has been deposed.

Dr al-Jabiri, who talked to Mr Chalabi over the phone last month, said: "He told me that he would take over. He has the blessing of the White House and the State Department."

He said Mr Chalabi had been in talks with another major Iraqi opposition group, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq and the Iranian Government while in Tehran.

Mr Chalabi moved to Sala-huddin in Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq last week, ahead of an expected United States-led invasion. Opposition forces will hold a summit in northern Iraq on February 15.

Clearing head after a wake-up nature call. My figures may be wrong, correct me if they are.

A short investor has 10 100 oz. contracts, or 1,000 ounces of paper gold at 365.00 or 365,000 dollars. He is forced to cover his shorts at 375.00 per ounce, or 375,000 dollars.

The loss is 10,000 dollars, seemingly not enough to "break the bank" as they say. I would hate to lose 10K, but it would not take me out of the market, and I'm not a trader.

The shorts and the longs have been playing on a very thin margin for a couple of years. With the recent gains in gold, it will get very interesting.

Go GOLD!

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/EB04Df02.htmlSnip:

"People are selling off their heirloom gold ornaments - traditionally cherished among Indians - and coins as war fears in the Middle East have propelled gold prices to new heights over the past few weeks. Expat Indians are also pumping in forex exchange and converting part of their asset holdings into gold as they seek a safer haven for savings."

Seems to be a modest shift from fabrication to investment...what will happen as the price rises further?

Actually I was thinking in terms of the Gold loan arena shorts with tons of metal sold off and the big boys with huge shorts in PM shares as well as contracts. Not necessarily the small fry though. But it would be nice to see them get creamed too.

"He who sells what isn't his'n must pay it back or go to prison" - unless they have very powerful friends (like LTCM?).

- Black Blade

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Euro markets are deep in the red and are slipping off into the abyss.

- Black Blade

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Economy%20World&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=world_economy&s=APj90SxZCUGltY28nNewport Beach, California, Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The weaker dollar is a signal the U.S. may lose its status as the world's chief magnet for investment and an ``economic powerhouse,'' said Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund.

The cost of an extended defense against terrorist threats has combined with the past stock market bubble, high personal debt, and a large trade deficit to leave the U.S. economy and its currency vulnerable when foreigners decide to withhold investment, Gross said on Pacific Investment Management Co.'s Web site.

``Foreigners have and will continue to sell the dollar and U.S. investments in fear of guns-and-butter bills to come,'' Gross wrote. ``Because of 9/11 and our necessity to fight a new kind of war, America is losing its peace dividend at a time when'' it can't afford to, he wrote.

The dollar has lost 20 percent of its value against the euro in the past 12 months, and 13 percent against the yen.

The U.S. economy needs $1.4 billion a day in foreign investment to offset its current-account deficit and maintain the value of the dollar.

--------(see url for article)-------

One of Bill's "public service announcements" so that he isn't viewed so much as though he were just a garden variety putz who was caught off guard when the bonds in his "world's largest portfolio" inevitably go hard south.

R.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html

Euro and dollar 10 year-bonds, vibrate together around the same 4% level. If the euro strengthenens further against the dollar, euro-bonds IR-4% can go lower while dollar-bond IR must go higher. Lower IR = stronger currency and inversely.
Higher IRs on the dollar = currency-inflationary !
So the euro would not be in need of a higher IR against the dollar anymore and have some relieving effects on the bank's balance sheets, in contrast with the dollar IRs.
Will see if it works out that way ?

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. I've noticed that USAGOLD / Centennial stresses education more than most of your competitors. Why is that?

MK. For years, we have emphasized "We educate first-time investors" in our advertising. We believe education to be the key to successful gold ownership. To make a long story short, we tend to keep our clientele as they become better educated, while many of our competitors tend to lose their clientele once they become educated. It shows in the type of services we consider important to complement our sales and delivery programs.

Randy interjects... Mike is way too nice to say this bluntly so I will. What I've noticed about the apparent rationale behind some of those other firms' operating philosophy is that, if they bend the client over far enough for their wallet the first time they ever do business together, they really don't have to care about getting repeat business. It doesn't have to be that way, but some people simply don't take the time to shop around for a quality firm. They should.

Q. What are some of the criteria a prospective investor should look for in a gold firm?

MK. Credibility, longevity, pricing, service and compatibility -- all come into the mix. Of those I rate credibility and its sister virtues -- reliability and reputability -- the most important. Too many of the national firms have brokers who were selling condos at the beach or automobiles a month ago and now suddenly they've become "gold experts" selling leverage schemes, $50,000 rare coins, reproduction medallions at 25 times their gold content, or overpriced silver investments. Most sophisticated gold investors would probably like to avoid that sort of thing. ...Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

MK. The biggest trap investors fall into is buying a gold investment that bears little or no relationship to his or her objectives. Take safe haven investors for example. That group makes up 90% of our clientele, and probably a good 75% of the current physical gold market. Most often the safe-haven investors simply want to add gold coins to their portfolio mix, but by the time they finish talking with a typical national firm, they might end up in a leveraged gold position, exotic rare coins, or being diverted into silver or platinum. Others drift into gold stocks or gold futures which in reality are proxies for real gold ownership and could actually act opposite the intent of the investor. There's nothing wrong with any of these non-physical investments per se, it's just that none of them is really a safe-haven. The investor should bear this in mind. The question investors must always answer for themselves is "How will this investment serve me should the economy or financial markets suffer a major disruption?"

Makes for an interesting adjunct to watching PoG eh?
The liquidity aspect of Eurozone Bonds intrigues me Belgian...if the Bund10 (say) is fairly priced to reflect the stronger Euro, it's Yield should be 3.6% or thereabouts. The shorter maturities would therefore call for a rate cut.
If the trend persisted (say) $150-E100 you'd cut again...get my drift?
That's why I feel this a case of Dollar induced Global DEflation rather than Dollar INflation.

The rules have changed Sir...it's every man for himself in the Currency arena....including Papergold!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030203/financial_pimco_gross_1.htmlNEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - A spendthrift United States is losing its "peace dividend" as war and terrorism fears mount, a change that may boost the inflation rate and hurt corporate profits, the U.S. dollar and investor returns, according to Bill Gross, who runs the world's largest bond mutual fund.

Gross said on Monday that the United States is entering a "somewhat vicious cycle of policy reversal" that might lead to "anemic" gains for investors.

"Many of us will have to adjust, either in the form of higher unemployment, an increased price for imported goods, or heavier indirect taxes in the form of higher inflation and interest rates," he said.

"Investment strategies, both bond and equity, should put these secular reversals at the top of their 'A' list when considering opportunities to make relative and absolute returns," Gross added.

He has said U.S. bond investors should expect 4 percent to 5 percent annual gains over the next several years, roughly half the rate between 2000 and 2002, and that he was buying for his portfolios some euro-denominated and emerging market debt.

Gross also last September made waves when he said 5,000 was fair value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

-------(see url for article)-------

Bill paints an uglyish picture for paper in general.

Don't let the fate of your wealth and transferrable purchasing power suffer as inflatable paper instruments are wont to do. Diversify your commercial and fiat holdings into a prudent position that includes the timeless wealth of kings, gold. Call USAGOLD-Centennial today to lock in your order for delivery to your door!

R.

Just to hammer home a point I've been trying to make for month's....the T-Bond Yield's have been DECLINING for 20 Yr's and only the recent weakness in Physical Dollars (HA! like Physical Shares) has stemmed the decline.
However...despite a 20% depreciation vis Euro the Yields haven't reversed.
Why do you think Japan is desperate to maintain a Dollar/Yen exchange rate status quo and let the Euro/Yen float?....because it's a deflationary suicide to do otherwise.
T10 will hold @ 4% and the Dollar depreciate vis everything thus driving all currencies into the Abyss.
There will be no Dollar inflation Sir B,

Unless a White Knight unseats her!

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlThe top graph in this latest update shows since January 2001 gold performing very well against the whole suite of major currencies -- Swiss Franc, Euro, Dollar, and Yen.

Which would you rather hold for the long term? Centennial would be happy to broker your exchange, paper into gold. Call today to discuss a strategy that's right for you.

R.

Quaere whether the gold price suppression served multiple purposes.

One set of purposes: Hide inflation, thereby keeping the equities boom going, thereby ensuring Clinton's re-election and, later, acquittal at the impeachment trial. Longer term Clintonite goal: Disrupting capitalism could then set the stage for the 60's leftists late-in-life expansion of government power, while saddling the Republicans with the blame for the new depression.

Another set of purposes: gold price suppression constituted part of the price of continued, at least for a time, $US settlement (a variation on the FOA/Another theme). Haven't had time to reason it through, just throwing it out. It would seem that we would need evidence of disproportionate Arab accumulation of gold during the suppression period for this thesis to be supportable.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/04/politics/04BUDG.htmlSnip:

Mr. Bush's budget forecasts a deficit of $304 billion in the current fiscal year, and projects a deficit of $307 billion for the 2004 fiscal year, which begins Oct. 1. Over the next five years the total projected deficit would be more than $1 trillion, a potentially problematic number for Mr. Bush, who as a presidential candidate vowed that he could both cut taxes and eliminate the national debt.
..........

The budget included no projection of the cost of any war with Iraq, which administration officials have said could be as low as $50 billion and as high as $200 billion. If there is a conflict, officials said, Mr. Bush would ask Congress for the money as an emergency supplement.

The budget calls for cuts in a wide range of domestic spending, including trims in Justice Department programs on juvenile delinquency and tribal courts and a halt in financing for the hiring of police officers. Money for a public housing program and aid to rural schools also would be cut. Over time, government-financed child care and children's health insurance would be reduced.
........
The president's top priority, Mr. Daniels said, was protecting the country from terrorist attack. As a reflection of that, he said, the administration was requesting $41 billion for domestic security and $380 billion for defense, an increase of 4.2 percent beyond what was already the biggest military buildup since the administration of Ronald Reagan.
.........
Misetich

Whatever happened to the projected surpluses of the new economy, the new paradigm, the productivity miracle?

The US "enjoyed" a big boost from local and foreign investments in recent years due to the "promised land of technological revolution" - trillions have been poured in and whilst the infrastrure was being built irrational exhuberance at all levels took place as the stock bubble grow - everybody "won" (gold investors included as they were given the lifetime opportunity to accumulate gold at the cheapest prices in US $) - government racked in taxes, investors gleemed as their paper portfolio (perceived wealth) grew -

and the inevitable boom and boost cycle - and bingo here we are

The US economy is in recession - an technical argument can be made but jobs are being lost and the numbers are massaged to portray growth - aided by unproductive military and housing spending -

Investors portfolios and retirement funds are decimated - and with all probabilities it well get much worse -

Federal government running printing presses at full speed - enormous deficits are projected - ******* NOTE***** The cost of servicing the $6.4 trillion debt not included in these "projections"

State and local governments are cash strapped - with tax inflows deteriorating -

What is holding up the US $????????

Got gold?

Please Sir, will you fill in the dots in the next phrase :
A US$ AS GOOD AS .........................
TIA.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Ehui&d=c&k=c1&t=1d&a=v&p=s&l=on&z=m&q=lLooks like some eagerness to purchase PM stocks this AM.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/04/business/04AUTO.htmlSnip:

DETROIT, Feb. 3 � Auto sales dropped 2 percent in January from a year earlier, carmakers reported today, signaling what many analysts say will be a tough year for the industry. Consumers are expected to benefit, though, from a wave of new products, particularly from foreign automakers like Nissan Motor, and cheaper prices because of the competition.
..........
Analysts said the numbers would have been worse had they not been propped up by sales to fleets, which are less profitable for automakers. One of the most popular vehicles last month was the Buick Century, a staple of rental car fleets; its sales rose 174 percent.
********
Misetich

A huge number of people are employed in the auto industry - and the prospects are not too promising -

Most expect a "repeat" of the 90 Gulf War overlooking and/or perhaps not grasping the present conditions -

Things have changed - and are changing - There will be no quick end after the Iraq invasion -

The solution of using force and take pre-emptive strikes is not the best solution in the long run - The span of control is getting bigger and bigger - unmanageable - both at home and internationally for the uS

Enemies are taking advantage of this opportunities presented and more unexpected caos will develop

The European Superpower is growing - and are ready to assume the reign - built on diplomacy rather than force

Oil priced in Euros is just around the corner

Got gold?

With gold moving up in world markets,how do we correctly value it in relation to the bretton woods system of fluctuating currencies.While gold becomes more dear to me,is it less expensive for a european.Is the value of gold under this system just a matter of where your standing.Under economis laws things are supposed to move to the place that most highly values them'should not gold be moving to the united states.I think it was David Ricardo who first said this in writing,as in many things i may be wrong.Je sse Livermore life story is a great read,have good day everyone.P S PHYSICALMAN, your handle is appropriate with your silver position

posting test

It works ! Just like magic Hello and welcome.

Even ABX is up 3%-----wow

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/2724339.stmThe Ghanaian Government is agonising over whether to grant licenses to six mining companies which are ready to invest over $2bn or preserve the forest and help save the earth.

Over the past five years, only a handful of new mines have opened as against dozens in the early to mid 1990s.

Five of the prospective mining companies are interested in mining for gold, but the ore is located inside forest reserves.

One company, Newmont, which is based in Australia, would, alone, pump close to $500m into the ailing Ghanaian economy, even before mining starts, and create about 1,000 jobs directly.

Newmont has found gold in two locations; but one of them falls inside a forest reserve. The company says it wants both concessions or nothing.

Thanks for helping with the experiment!

Zhisheng (2/4/03; 09:30:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 96665)
@ Gandalf regarding #96627.
Thanks for helping with the experiment!
===
I am busy with the $380 Level right now !
SPIKE and SPOT are really JUMPING and ready to BITE any short.
PERHAPS, Sir BB will have less doubt of my next MAGIC !
<;-)

Looks like the cabal may have taken positions at $378.50--The fight is on. This may get interesting before the close.

GET READY SPOT !
BITE 'em !!
<;-)

The twelve month period between my 15th and 16th birthdays was much more than a year. Time not only refused to fly by but traversed through the calender like a mule and wagon plowing through a muddy bog. Reminds me a lot of the recent 12 months as gold has ever so slowly climbed its way up the chart. Happy for the progress, but geesh, it has tried the patience of a man who has none. And while patience is exuded as a worthy virtue, I refused to ask the Good Lord to help me in this area because of fear that he would replay a similar episode of the 15-16 years to "teach" me patience.
Anyway, 16 did arrive and I actually got the family station wagon parked between those orange cones to get my drivers license. With keys in hand I soon set out on my first "real" date. I took that young lady out to play a round of golf at the local putt-putt course and dined her proper at the local hamburger shack. I remember being nervous later that evening as we walked to her front porch. The anticipation of that good night kiss.

Well, after the year long trek of the gold charts, I have the same feelings of anticipation as gold approaches the front porch of $400.00 I know there will be even higher, much higher, prices to come, but that first kiss at 400 will be the sweetest one I thinks. It has been a long time in the waiting and has even taught me a little about patience.

Just an old man far past 16 having a moment of rememberance on this fine morning.

I just read your 96615 post in which you asked for my thoughts on a possible market shock from a possible end (or a decrease) in market manipulation. This possible shock has been mentioned for years as a violent reaction to price suppression.

It has always seemed logical to me that the removal of any price altering mechanisms from a supposedly free market would then allow that market to readjust to where the normal forces of supply and demand would price it. However, the unwinding of years of increased artificial selling usually propel prices even beyond this point. We'll have to wait to see if this leads to an investment mania similar to the late 1990s tech bubble. As for a market shock, I believe the POG is more likely to reach higher heights by advancing steadily than by spiking higher in huge daily moves. Perhaps this slow but steady "market shock" started when POG broke through the 330 level? I certainly hope so. So, in that sense, I'd argue that the market shock has begun. I never agreed with any predictions of derivative "meltdowns" or market defaults but I do think there are now big money players scrambling to rebalance their hedging or limit their loses in the casino.

As for being the silver king, I have for years wondered why the POS has not reflected price rationing in response to the ongoing supply/demand deficit. I've voiced my opinions and thoughts while searching for answers and information here and elsewhere. I've worked hard to acquire knowledge but I am a self employed concrete finisher by trade and by no means a big player. There are many here who have much more invested than I, and there are many here who, I believe, share my opinion that, eventually, market forces will take the POS much higher. I've found there is a point in silver analysis where new information and knowledge is hard to come by. There is never any fundamental market news but only vague references to silver price movement as being either technical in nature or as a response to gold. The market is oblivious to the basic situation. I don't think industrial silver travels through any exchanges like Comex on its journey from producer to end user. Silver prices do not seem to reflect any fundamental facts but wander up and down on a technical (chart reading) basis. The distinction between speculative and commercial positions on Comex have little meaning. Perhaps here, in silver, is where we might see a real "market shock" but it may require consumption of the fast depleting available supply before the market awakens to the reality of "no more" or "not enough" silver for immediate needs. What do you think?
Rich

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d3There as been a commerical on TV that shows an elegant young lady stepping out of a limo and making her way past roped off crowds. Suddenly, she slips and falls from camera view to the concrete pathway. In case any of you would like to see a reinactment of this just clink on the above link.

Not only is this an embarrasing moment, you know that's gotta hurt.

...is very close to mine, and your view of a putative "Derivatives meltdown"......are also.

The powers [Western gold cartel] that has been controlling gold is indeed moving it upwards, but in a straight line. Thus they signal to acolytes a short-covering timetable. Cover at a specified rate of ounces per day for a specified loss per day.

Today, however, is a very bad day for the cartel. The PM fix is $376.50 and �346.79 significantly higher than yesterday while the dollar falls towards 99. The Major Currency Dollar Index may be awful and that's the one that really matters to the G-10 puppeteers.

The silver thing has been very tough to figure out. Like gold one can surmise that a large official seller has been present but who? After the sale of the Defense stockpile by President Clinton, I prefer to think it's Mexico carrying the load now, since they are the largest producer and could be dealt with at the government administration level. If this belief is true, then there may not be an easy way to interrupt the flow of silver from Mexican mines to be sold at below market prices.

As gold marches up it will drag silver but there is the official selling of silver as the wildcard. When will they quit selling and accept the punishment of higher prices?

The disconnection between gold and silver price slopes will force a rebalancing of the two at some point. THAT would be a silver spike to behold.

If one views the gold market from the perspective that it is a fully manipulated entity, then everything that has transpired over the last seven years makes sense. Today's linear retrenchment upward is explained by the cartel's desire to get to higher ground in an orderly manner so as to allow orderly hedge closures and an orderly dollar devaluation.

The PM fund managers hoping for a $40 pull back in gold and a further fall by the PM stocks are sadly missing the boat AND they are fighting the Fed since the fed wants the gold price higher. Losing games on both counts.

Buy and hold.

We have removed two posts this AM for mining stock references. This is not a stock tout board. Thank you for your co-operation.

Market ShockWe're not on the same page.

Take a look at msg# 96387 re Market Shock. You and sector interpret it as a sharp spike up. Mr. Veneroso's use of the concept is exactly the opposite and that is my warning.

Silver: The poor man's gold will blow your socks off before this mess comes to an end.

Thank you

Can you elaborate on "HOW" orderly you see the dollar, devaluate ? And will all those dollar-holders-traders-users, simply watch this "orderly" process and stand by idle ? And is the FED the only CB, pulling the strings on the Gold-reserve-management ? TIA.

A poster named Coincidence put up a lament by Cramer at the 13:02 time mark next door at gold-eagle. Cramer is crying over the weakening dollar and higher POG. There's no link to provide but it's worth the trip over there.

There's a Usagold link at the top right of each time period page of their forum. It reminds me of the secret passageways from the corner rooms on the Clue game board. Easy traveling.

that passageway is at the top left of each page.

Gandalf! Good work today.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Sector states (#96673): "The powers [Western gold cartel] that has been controlling gold is indeed moving it upwards, but in a straight line."

I have been suspecting this for some time. The graph (today's spot price) on the link bears this out sure.

The "orderly dollar-devaluation" belief is parallelled by the "orderly sale of paper-gold for gold-in-possession" mindset. Fools gold?

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=&selected=chart&disclaimer=ok&alias=middlechartseite&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=38&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iInd0=na&sBench1=na&sBenchcount=1&sBench2=&sBench2count=1&showBenchmarkSearch=&iInd1=1&iInd2=na&iIndcount=1&sSettings=naI thought that I had $379. there at the CLOSE, but it slipped away ! NOTICE the nice even upward MARCH in NY today on the CHART !
STILL, it IS one of BB's "Beautiful Days" !!
<;-)

KUWAIT (Reuters) - Kuwait's Defense Ministry declared Tuesday northern areas bordering Iraq a military zone closed to unauthorized personnel starting Feb. 15, the state-run Kuwait news agency said.

"No one will be allowed to enter these regions after this date without official permission from the army," the news agency quoted a Defense Ministry statement as saying.

It gave no reason for the closure but the statement follows several weeks of stepped-up U.S. military exercises in northern Kuwait amid preparations for a possible U.S.-led attack on Iraq. Kuwait is expected to be the launch pad for any U.S.-led assault on Iraq if Washington decides to use force to dismantle alleged Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Iraq denies it has such weapons.

Your analysis of the increasing gold price makes total sense, in fact so much sense that I'm almost in disbelief that the PM fund managers are behind the eight ball.

Your analysis also makes sense, if the EU is using dollars to buy gold, and having the Euro expand to fill the dollar gap rather than cut rates and expand the Euro supply thru the banking network (not as inflationary).

Was trying to work on this thought in response to Belgian this am, but my time is extremely limited, being so buried in work that my snorkle isn't long enough. . .

Someone talkied about the auto industry this am, and they are correct, we employ lots of people and things don't look real promising for the next 18 months or so. In fact they look rather bleak and the 4% deline in auto sales this year that many are forcasting is about as accurate as the bullish stock market predictions.

buy and hold pm's is good advice.

Thanks,

Pizz

It almost seems the networks and the goverment like these tragedies.ITallows them to fill air time and keeps peoples mind off the economic news.I pray for those who died and their loved ones,but it seems this tragic occurence is nothing but a photo opp.

The Muslim Holy Holidays end either on February 14 or February 15. I have read elsewhere that was one of the reasons that a US attack on Iraq could NOT happen before the 15TH of February.

Also Hans Blix reports back to the UN on Friday February 14, 2003. Should be a Dramatic week following. Don't be short Gold :-)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1DAA54F6%2D52E0%2D42CF%2DB675%2D62246E1AC953%7D&siteid=mktwOn Tuesday, for instance, Russia, joining China and several other countries in a shift toward bullion-linked reserves, said its central bank will boost gold and foreign-currency holdings to $55 billion by year's end, a rise of 17 percent. Many countries in Asia that are running large trade surpluses with the United States, among them Taiwan, Japan and China, have less than 4 percent of their foreign reserves in gold, leaving plenty of room for future gold purchases.

Turk, in following his early January forecast that the gold price would surpass $370 an ounce in the coming weeks, on Tuesday told me he expects the metal's price to reach $434 an ounce by the end of February, less than four weeks' time. Such a gain, 15 percent at current levels, would hearken back to the middle of February 1996, when the metal peaked at $415 an ounce before beginning a 5 1/2-year slide into the dungeon. See: Researcher predicts imminent gold gain.

The researcher's forecasts are bold in their specific timing and price level. Turk's predictions depart from those found at investment banks in London and on Wall Street, where analysts are reluctant to forecast an average gold price higher than $360 an ounce or so for all of 2003. Turk is confident gold, logging inevitable gains as international investors flee the "dollar bubble," will reach $600 this summer and surpass $900 an ounce by February 2004.
__________
Trojan- yes I read that also, I think its the Haj that is over.
Got Gold?

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutmore.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors

Just as the primary trend in gold is up as shown by our nearby
graph, the primary trend in stocks is down. If you diversify your
portfolio with gold, you not only gain by being in gold, you gain what
you would have lost in the stock market. Richard Russell, the
well-regarded long-time investment analyst who has correctly and
consistently forecasted the direction of both markets, says the stock
market and gold will cross in the 2000 to 3000 area. Think about that
for a moment. What will that mean to your portfolio if not properly
diversified with gold? What will it mean if it is?

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

"As a lurker for almost three years it was the opinion expressed on this board as well as other commentary that forced my wife and I to examine the sanity of playing with our life savings in the stock market casino. We bailed completely as the Nasdog was crossing 4400 heading south and immediately went to the physical...the rest is history. Gratitude is an understatment for that heads up. I can't even begin to fathom where we might be otherwise."--Harry Harrison, aka Skydog.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EB01Ak01.html
So is king dollar.

Some important decisions must be made,quickly.

Do the OPEC nations need a serial counterfeiter in
their midst'setting prices and unduly influencing
policy?

Perhaps it's time for another currency,one that
appears to holding it's value and is not prone
to violent excess.

http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/omega-slides.htmlOur very own lovely and talented Marie has used our network of connections to offer these beautiful and fashionable Omega necklaces to our clientele at prices WAY below what you will find in stores anywhere. How? We simply don't have to cover the overhead that jewelry stores do as they lease expensive space in the malls and on Main St., USA. Oh, and there's this other reason -- we have a will to pass this savings along to our clients.

So call Marie 1-800-869-5115 ext.106 for great gift-giving suggestions and assistance, and avoid steep jewelry store markups and sales taxes this year.

It will be the easiest thing you do all month. "Hello, Marie? What is an Omega necklace? My wife has been dropping hints about them for months..."

And to think he's a Harvard manThere's No Bright Side to Gold's Rise

By James J. Cramer
02/04/2003 12:49 PM EST

"Gold's killing us. I know it has become fashionable for some to craft a tale that says gold's rally shows that there could be a comeback in store for the U.S. economy. But I am nothing if not empirical in my judgment about stocks, and I think the gold rally is mutually exclusive when it comes to anything good happening in the rest of the market.

"The idea of a gold rally as an OK thing is based on the notion that we could use a little inflation. The next part of this bright-side argument is that if gold is going up, that is a precursor to having more pricing power, which means there could be some margin expansion for companies.

"I just don't see it that way. Gold, to me, is zero-sum. If gold goes up, stocks go down and they go down because gold is the "anti-investment." Given that most of the big trigger-pullers out there have been schooled with the same text that I have, the gold rally is just dreadful for stocks. It is reminiscent of times we had big rallies in the drillers; there always would be some Pollyanna out there saying the rally in the drillers was good news because it showed economic activity. Sure, but it was the wrong economic activity!

"This contra-argument goes back to the one John Roque presented last week, the one that allows people to say that the dollar decline is also good because it benefits the commodity producers. Let's be clear on this one, too: I don't want the dollar to go down anymore. The dollar's decline is becoming a foreign referendum on President Bush's plan to pay for a war with tax cuts. Right now, the referendum says the president's plan is just plain unrealistic.

"Gold up, dollar down, let's not mince words. We don't want either of these trends from here. We want gold declines and dollar stability. We can't come up with reasons to like every scenario out there. That's simply not rigorous enough. It is terrific if you don't have money on the line; it is a disaster if you are rationalizing why you should commit new money to the market."

THIS Bear Market Will Not End Until The Kudlow & Cramer Show Is Cancelled. None the less, I must admit that I enjoy watching their historic gaffes in Economic Analysis, night after night...in a league of their own.

Thank you

That's really very funny! I will have to watch the "Heckel and Jeckel Show" tonight. Maybe Jeckel will have less hair after today. Ya know, he does look like the Boss in the comic strip Dilbert, and just about as intelligent. He is probably still laying out heavy bets on dot.bombs.

BTW, Spot is making an assault on $380 in after hours trade. Maybe - just maybe we will see $434 as per James Turk in a few days. Then we can watch Jeckel have an on air coronary with Heckel pounding him on the chest and debating whether he really wants to give mouth to mouth or just let nature take its course. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

look out!
Gold at $380!

I think it is about time these empty suits come to the realization we are not going away. Too bad they are missing out on some impressive GAINS!!! GO GOLD!!! Godspeed to all physical holders...

eom
great day

This country is carrying a tremendous debt load, while at the same time planning tax cuts, and more spending (debt) to jump start the economy. Also, the president would like to turn the economy around, guns and butter style, in anticipation of the 2004 election. I ponder how much more spending can be accomplished the way things are. The president and congress need to have a nice chunk of the existing dollars/debt conveniently sliced away, giving them greater leverage for creating it all over again. As a possibility, how about a one-time dollar/monetary recall/conversion?

On the international front, this could involve the Fed, in cooperation with the world bank/imf to group countries according to U.S. alliance (friend/foe). The dollar/debt balance of the "friendlies" would be is estimated for a 1:1 conversion to the "new" dollars (remember the "new" pesos?), to take place on a date to be determined. The countries in the "enemy" camp are left out of the plan. On the established date, (1) the accounts of the "friendlies" are converted to "new" dollars, and, (2) the "old" dollars are de-monetized. After this date, the "enemy" countries will have only "old" dollars on account, and they will be unable to make purchases, because they will have no reserve of the "new" dollars. Their existing stash of "old" dollars and accounts will be worthless. Call it "Fiat Counter-Terrorism".

On the domestic front, the process would involve a simple 1:1 paper money recall, involving a determined maximum amount of cash per person or household that would be eligible for recall/conversion. For people having excess cash, they would have to show records of where the cash came from to get it switched. This action would flush out the domestic underground "cash" economy, providing needed money for the cash-strapped states.

What would this type of event do for gold? I bet it wouldn't hurt to have some.

This, of course, is just idle speculation. But, I do imagine that something is going to have to "give" to accommodate the spending that the president's got planned.

Cheers.

It appears that Spot has taken a lesson or two from Wile E. Coyote and bought a rocket pack from ACME products. Spot is launching upward again to new heights above $381 and rising. Very Nice - Beautiful Day indeed!

- Black Blade

BTW, that Cramer piece was classic. He pounds against drillers too. Is he in for a big surprise. NG prices are going to new highs soon enough amid declining production and no reserve replacement and his beloved techs, dot.coms, etc. will be dead and buried as the economy craters while pushed under further by rising energy costs. The chickens are coming home to roost!

I'll join you in citing distaste for that artcle by JJ Cramer which you've kindly brought to our attention. Can you believe that rational people actually think like that???

I'll echo my same comments that I gave in review of another bogus piece of mainstream commentary... the short version is that there simply isn't enough room on the internet to accommodate the number of times I'd need to type the word "crap" to do it justice.

Forgive my disbelief, but did he REALLY say Gold is the 'anti-investment'???? Looking at it again, yes, there it is:

====="If gold goes up, stocks go down and they go down because gold is the "anti-investment."=====

Good heavens!! Now lemme see... whose agenda is he pressing, I wonder...

If we really *really* want to talk about "anti-investments" in the same light that Cramer is using here, we'd need to take a hard look at investments in the dollar and its bonds, wouldn't we?!! Let's think about it a minute. Wouldn't holdings of dollars and largely their bonds (which are merely another's promise to pay dollars) TRULY be the "anti-investment" under Cramer's line of thinking? But he can't go around saying THAT in public!! No, Gold isn't the "anti-investment," it's more like the "anti-dollar." Or put a better way, dollars (and bonds for the most part) are the anti-Gold, anti-investment, anti-stock, anti-reality, anti-life. To call it like it is, Cramer should mock those people who sit on their dollary piles of anti-matter!

Here's where life turns truly bizarre. Having said all of that about the dollar, I still like to get paychecks that are as big as possible! The more dollars for me, the better! Yes, dollars!! The situation rapidly makes sense again when you allow yourself to understand that I don't *HOLD* these dollar anti-investments any longer than I have to. I pay my bills, comtemplate a business investment or two, and then exchange the remainder of all dollars into Gold, yes Gold -- the Supreme Investment in my future. That's materially where the wealth of my productive efforts is concluded. Real goods for a real life. Because its real *real* REAL, it'll always be there, always Good as Gold, ready to spring into actionwith robust purchasing power if ever I need it to keep the wolf from my door.

Beg your pardon, Mr. Cramer, but a resounding NO!! to your opening quip, ""Gold's killing us." Quite to the contrary, Gold's best at keeping us ALIVE!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Spot just rocketed over $382 and climbing! I definitely have to watch Krusty The Klown Kramer tonight.

- Black Blade

Please be advised that the line representing the POG in your chart entitled "Spot Gold Trend" as viewed in post 96687 is in imminent danger. I fear that your chart parameters ranging from a low of 260 to a high of 380 are no longer sufficient to contain this aforementioned price line. Also, your upper channel line indicating resistence has been severely breached. It may be beyond repair. Please consult a technical analyst in regards to possible new support and resistence containment barriers.

Kinda brings to mind the neverending excavation that was necessary to accommodate the falling line on the old Ponzi chart.

To limit expansion costs on the chart, it is advisable to think big, namely, that a new chart ceiling of al least 500 may avoid the near future costs of repeatedly reconstructing the chart ceiling in the event that Gandalf raises POG too drastically.

Thank you for taking the time to consider my proposals.
Rich

Spikearo and spotty too have just went vertical. 382.10. Be thinking about what you are going to do tomorrow as the good ship of state walks to the podium. Talk about fireworks. The charts will look like a drunken sailor drew them. Hang, I said hang on to your hat and posterior tomorrow. As a gold bug, you are going to go where no gold bug has gone before. It may be pure bliss for only a flash but beam me up spotty; I'm in for the ride of my life!!

Ron Insana said earlier that the 5:00 segment of the peoples stock picking television channel will discuss/look at/examine commodities. Knowing their mindset that the only good moves are upside moves, maybe they'll be forced to talk about .... Maybe?

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[m,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GIts a huge cup and handle formation for Gold.

Glamis Gold CEO Kevin McArthur rang the closing bell at the NYSE and was interviewed on the trading floor by CNBC's Bob Pisani. He said he's looking for Gold to rise to at least $500 an ounce on a weak dollar, debt, etc. Pisani didn't want to follow up on that but on Glamis mines.

- Black Blade

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CRY0&v=d12Maybe they will show a chart like the one above.

:-)

If I did it up as nicely as you proposed, there would surely be some fellows who would try to use it as inspiration to time their entry and exit from the futures arena.

Your good-natured comments are good proof that the current understatement is most effective in conveying the primary point to be made... that not only is there a long term upward trend, but that its channel has been blatantly breached to the upside. The sky is the limit. That is, until someone makes me corral the thing in a newer, shorter set of channel lines, ever chasing the thing that can't be caught.

On second thought, it CAN be caught. Call the friendly staff of brokers at USAGOLD-Centennial to find out how easy it can be done -- boxed tight and shipped to your door.

R.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$CRB,uu[m,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GThis is the right chart... ahem

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlHow many ways can one say excellent!

I think someone here posted not too long ago that Prechter had advised his clients to short gold with a cover at 390. If so, there's some added sweating going on out there. If we hit 390, his followers should give gold a covering extra spurt to higher ground.

Why should we pay attention to any new POG punter ? All the old and new goldprice-guessers, simply run constantly "behind" the precious's price moves and are, ohhh so creative in always finding fresh explanations and extrapolations / projections. Nobody ever seems to get bored with this.

A/FOA & Co, were the only ones who outlined the present, long before it was happening, and watch silently, how right they are. There is *NO* limit up anymore for the POG !
And yes, POG will pass 434$ > 500$ > 600$ > 850$...thousands of euro per ounce. Our great Gold-Mentors explained *** WHY ***. And nothing has changed since then.

The dollar is in the process of losing its grip on its own anti-thesis, GOLD ! The dollar will soon become very angry.
Quite a normal reaction when one ($) feels threathened.
Threathened from all sides and not in the least from its own overweight of destructive debt and systemic structure to dominate. The dollar's defense will not evolve, orderly.
There is no compromise possible anymore. The dollar is cornered. But cornered rats are dangerous. That element will dictate caution from the challenger's side.

It is PHYSICAL GOLD that is taking control of the dollar, now. FREE GOLD for a nice, future, flow of oil, unfortunately at the dollar's expense. Nothing for nothing.

Soon, after the fight, the dollar will accept this almost fait accomply and be part again of a more "just" world-society (economically and politically). A new basis for renewed expansive real growth, peace and prosperity. But not to be found around the corner, yet.

So far, the dollar-decline, runs within TA/TI bounderies.
The ABC -declining pattern from the 1985 ATH (now C-wave).
There is no floor in this LT-pattern ! As there is no ATH-target for the POG. Things have dramatically changed. Don't keep hanging on to the past as to possibly project the future. We are heading into uncharted territories !

Political events encounter many deadlocks. Mutations are natural phenomenons. Break loose from the daily, repetitive considerations and rely on the fundamental undertones (cross-currents). When the environments change, herds do walk on other trails, even unconsciously.

Gold's behavior will continue to confuse many observers who remain on the surface. Gold will keep on revaluing, whilst many keep on ranting. Sit back and take an eagle's view.

High time for Wealth-Conclusion ! So much existing wealth (X-TRILLIONS) cannot be concluded in 150,000 tonnes of aboveground Gold, priced at a few thousands of fiat-currency per ounce (1.4 trillion today).
The POG (FREE GOLD) cannot be pr�-set, arbitrary, anymore.
Gold's old godfather, the dollar, has reached the end of its timeline. A dramatic phrase, extremely difficult to accept. Blame it on the unimaginable DEBT_LOAD ! Unerasable
exponentially growing Debt !
Debt that was purposely created by nothing else than the all-embracing paper-many. Too much Paper, virtual, prosperity, DAILY EVIDENCED, but arrogantly minimalized.

More and more, the ultimate "COMFORT" of Physical Gold in Possession will be experienced by more and more individuals, getting out of the past paper-fictions.
So simple, so easy and at the same time so difficult to accept and become part of it.

Good night from Euroland.

Gentlemen:

This gives new meaning to "SOLD OUT MEDIA TROLL".

Perhaps , in addition to recieving this infamous distinction , it should also be added that this may be a sign that he sold his soul ....to slave for the bangsters.

Reminds me of the people in the Little Mermaid who were transformed by the wicked SEA WITCH.... tough going out there maintaining one's integrity...I'm glad I didn't go to Harvard....He gives Harvard a bad name......

It is now up to Asia to carry the ball. At least now all the right people are getting depressed about Spot's new dose of energy. It reminds me of an old Saturday Night Live skit about "Puppy Uppers" vs. "Doggie Downers". Yeah, OK the country was just coming out of the Party Days of the 1960's and 1970's. Now Krusty The Klown and other gold haters are depressed. I remain "Significantly Bullish" on Gold as opposed to that other guy who has been "Significantly Bearish" since Gold at $255. The fundamentals for Gold are very strong even without the talk of war.

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!

His masters are getting rich as he lays out their counterintelligence.....

How long will they be able to keep the masses at bay?

The last pearl of wisdom I was foolish enough to listen to from this intellectual giant was: "EMC is bulletproof at$40".

Silver is close to the top of its recent trading range. Sure hope it can start rocking here. Looking at a 10-year chart it looks pretty flat. Can the silver stocks like Coeur d'Alene Mines ever return to profitability?

Silver just went to 4.95 ....lets see what happens
tomorrow!

The Greatest Show On Earth
Cometose (2/4/03; 16:23:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 96712)
Cramer
"His masters are getting rich as he lays out their counterintelligence.....

"How long will they be able to keep the masses at bay?"

************************************************************

Black Blade
Aristotle
Cometose

Gentlemen:

I'm absolutely convinced that "Larry & Jimmy" are voices for the Official Sector or, as we usually hear, the Establishment. Mr. Kudlow never tires or reminding us that he was a senior staff guy in the Reagan Administration...the guy is connected, big time. And speaking of Big Time, Kudlow actually interviewed V.P. Cheney not too long ago. A Cheney Interview is a tough ticket.

We should suck it up and pay attention to these two infamous paper touts. Look at it as if you've got the enemies phone bugged.

I have a feeling that we're going to hear Jimmy screech a little bit about gold tonight. When his noise level is fairly constrained and he purces his lips when finshed, that's when he's trying to sell something and he's lying like a rug. I don't even e-mail these guys with complaints or insults. I look forward to their disinformation even more that Mr.Ruckyser...now there'e a guy with a hideous track record!

Cometose is right on the money. I would just keep smiling at the greatest show on earth...at the moment.

Thank you

Amen.

--- Ari

http://www.shopnetdaily.com/store/item.asp?ITEM_ID=851I posted information about this video last summer and got no response. I thought the mention of Lawrence Kudlow was very intriguing.

"Red Gold Rising" (video)

A fascinating story about how Red China is using Swiss banks to launder gold just like Nazi Germany did before World War II, and for a similar purpose! What is that common purpose? The answer appears to be to generate laundered money to corrupt the American political system and thus assist their planned imperialism. This AI-TV program created a major stir in Hong Kong, becoming a major story in their press. It has even created a significant effect on the Hong Kong stock market!

In America, however, this story is being suppressed, the most reasonable explanation being the political allegiances of our journalists. See the story they do not want you to find out about. American Investigator follows the money and gold trail, and reveals which politicians in America are benefitting. Filled with info on how both the Nazi and Red Chinese gold operations work. Includes interviews with Wall Street expert Lawrence Kudlow, who sees significant danger to our financial markets in this scandal.

Not only is Red China using money to corrupt American politicians as the Nazis did before World War II, they are also using Wall Street to assist this operation. Famed Nazi-hunter Marty Mendelson is interviewed. He is mainly responsible for the recent scandal over Nazi gold by proving that the Swiss still had $2 billion worth of Nazi gold stolen from Jews. He also tells how he got some of it back to the victims.

Length 52 minutes.

Dear Waverider and megatron: Please forgive me for not getting back to you! I was THRILLED to get megatron's note on Sunday. But I've been completely distracted by an emergency in my extended family and haven't been able to reply. Megatron, it's great to see your name in print! I hope you know now that never once was I actually arguing or fighting with you - I was just having fun being sarcastic. I always thought of you as my buddy, and I have missed seeing you around. The reason I haven't posted lately is because I don't have the time or energy, and after almost four years I have less and less to say!

Waverider, HOW do you know megatron??? What a small world this is! We are all going to HAVE to get together sometime. Maybe it will be soon, since we're all about to get rich (maybe)!

I'm 99% sure that you took my attempt at humor at the expense of your chart as only that- humor. I meant no criticism or disrespect. Actually, the lines are correct, and the breakout above resistence is because the rise in POG is accelerating.
POG up again, +$4.00 in afterhours and OZ.
I have a notion that silver will not be restrained much longer. It may move very quickly. I hope so.
Rich

I certainly enjoyed R Powell's humour in his earlier post, it was well received and understood. POG up $5 now at kitco - perhaps the charts will need to refresh more often!

Thanks again to you at USA Gold for the best forum on the web! Hit that F5

Second paragraph: "Your good-natured comments..."

R.

http://www.debka.com/Scrolled down a bit and hadn't seen anyone link to this, but Debka posted the article this afternoon.

Scary read, and can't be doing anything but help Au, as appears something is.

If this is old news, my apolgy.

Pizz

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals' founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:

"[M]uch of this issue is devoted to oil, inflation, international politics and gold. . . . . Though the dollar continued to rise against most international currencies during the past month, most currencies ( including the dollar) were depreciating against real goods. . . . AND IT IS THE TREND THAT HAS ECONOMISTS CONCERNED. Crude oil, which must be purchased with dollars, is being blamed as the chief culprit. When the dollar price of oil rises, it fans the inflationary fires of nearly every nation in the world. All of this could at some point inspire a dollar rebellion among the nations of the world, with both oil producers and oil consumers capable of finding fault with the dollar simultaneously . . . . In such a case gold, of course, would become one of the primary beneficiaries and the dollar could go into a tailspin."

Take note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

News & Views is available to our clientele only. However, the latest issue is just back from the printer and available to prospective gold investors who request an INFORMATION PACKET on one-time only basis. We invite your request.

If you would like to get a feel for the thinking that forms the basis for market conclusions like the one featured above, take advantage of the offer to include THE ABCs of GOLD INVESTING: PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH THROUGH PRIVATE GOLD OWNERSHIP. A prompt with ordering information will come up after you submit your request for the INFORMATION PACKET.

What the American economy today is facing is not simply a banking crisis as was the case in earlier instances of profound financial fragility. The expansion of credit in this cycle has occurred largely outside the banking system. Given the leverage and contingent liabilities of the major money center banks, the banks in isolation are currently not well equipped to pick up the vast liabilities of the new and now dominant securitized debt finance markets. What is being contemplated by the monetary authorities today is much bigger. That we are in this state is really a product of the Fed's own abdication of responsibility under the convenient guise of the "efficient market" hypothesis.

The US central bank thought by letting markets continually price risk, rather than letting commercial bankers and their loan committees bury friendly loans, the financial system would be more efficient. The Fed thought that by separating the payments and settlements system of banks from much of the credit risk of corporate and consumer lending, they would prevent contagion effects. They failed to see the moral hazard this engendered, magnified by the equity bubble dynamics they openly encouraged and perpetuated. They failed to understand that while one bomb disbursed through a hundred pension and insurance portfolios would have a muted effect, that very fact would mean a thousand bombs got planted in pension and insurance portfolios. Especially when the enhanced liquidity of loans once transformed into traded and diversified structured finance vehicles meant no incentive existed, and no means existed, for due diligence on any one loan.

Now the credit default bombs are going off. And the equity bubble is irretrievably blown. So the Fed will have to enter as lender of last resort, but this time around, as lender to a new set of agents, those central to the structured finance scheme. Via the PBGC, the Fed is likely to become lender of last resort to corporate pension funds that are severely under-funded to the point *******the firms are about to be claimed by the workers.****** This parallels the Fed's role in the S&L bail out via FSLIC, but it is substantially larger by a multi-fold number.

Skip it
No disparaging Gold Talk...the silence was deafening, especially after Jimmy's bit earlier today.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APj.jvRWAQ2hpbmEnBeijing, Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- China's 8 percent economic growth rate last year was among the fastest in the world. That wasn't good enough for the country's local governments: They all said their own growth was even faster.

Flouting the law of averages, China's 31 provinces and municipalities each reported 2002 growth rates higher than the central government's figure for the whole country, according to data from local government Web sites and state media reports.

The conflicting numbers highlight doubts about the accuracy of information supplied by China's government, including world- beating economic growth. Some analysts say China's real growth could be less than half the official rate as provincial officials inflate their own economic success to win promotions.
_______________
China also has a bad loan problem in their banking system. Some think over 50% of bank loans are non performing. If I were in
China I'd like to buy some gold and silver as well.
Its time for silver to make a run at $5+
Go Silver!

Record 214,000 Japanese File Bankruptcy
Associated Press


TOKYO - A record 214,000 Japanese individuals filed for bankruptcy last year as the nation continued to struggle with its now chronic economic slump, Japan's top court said Tuesday.

A total of 214,634 Japanese filed for bankruptcy nationwide in 2002, up 33.8 percent from 160,457 the previous year, Supreme Court spokesman Isao Umezawa said.

Personal bankruptcies in Japan have been on the rise amid increasing corporate failures, restructuring and pay cuts.

Japan's unemployment rate remains at record high levels, and a government study late last year found that about half of the unemployed had no income.

http://prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=20091

If someone could explain what happened to me here i would be grateful.Just looked at my ameritrade account,bema and kinross merged i take it.Well i now have way less shares of new company as my bema shares were sold off and i think i have less equity,and ameritrade charged me for the reorginization,can someone help me out here

Sorry to here about your conundrum. I can provide nothing substantive towards your quest for info, except this get PHYSICAL in hand ASAP. This type of shinanigan will soon be the norm for the PM market. we have seen numerous examples of the sharks feeding of the next bubble TECH ect befor the feeder fish wake up and disperse. You got enroned hope it did'nt hurt too bad. Divest NOW and call the boys at CMP/USAGold they will set you right.BE the master of your own destiny.Semper-Fi

How much silver is used up annually in photography? Is there a 10 year average available?

How much of an over supply - carry over from 2002 - would there be if the use of silver in making film were to have ceased all together?

Thank you

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1042491489900&p=1012571727088Mr Armitage conceded that North Korea was a worse proliferator than Iraq, selling missiles to Yemen, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt "and other places". The US also had "suspicions" that North Korea had spread nuclear weapons technology, indicating that Pakistan and Libya might have benefited.
__________
FT article, good read

21Mabry, Kinross merged last week with TVX Gold
and Echo Bay Mining and undertook a 3-for-1
reverse stock split. While you have one third fewer
shares, their total value is, today, substantially
higher than it was on Friday. A big part of that
gain is the gold price rise since Friday. But part
of that is the reverse split's lifting Kinross' share
price from $2.40 or so last week to more than
$7. By surpassing $5, Kinross shares become
marginable at most brokerage houses -- that
is, people can borrow to buy them and borrow
against them. Marginability will greatly increase
the attractiveness of Kinross shares. Further,
the company is said to be among the top four
or five in the world in leverage to the gold price.
It seems to have topped the list of gold share
gainers today -- probably for all these reasons
together.

Gold stocks have always traded at a premium to spot have they not. Well what about that today....you NAV fans might know better, but I would guess gold stocks today are trading at a max of $350 spot...in other words gold stocks are actually trailing the price of spot gold by $30+ as of today...and I suppose the only logical conclusion to this unusual arrangement is that the 'masses' are unsure of the ability to maintain the price/expecting a 'correction' in the price of spot.

Well guess what.....IMVERYHO....it isn't going to happen to any significant degree. If spot does take a breather... it will MAYBEE be to $350...BUT I DON'T THINK SO.

With WAR in the backgound as a 'bonus', and putting aside for a minute the facts of the collapsing US dollar, the collapsing US economy, the threat of global deflation, all forms of debt now being reported at the max...would not the citizen of average intelligence be furtively running to the only investment representing safety and the preservation of capital????.....and I do mean the mellow yellow....

I say.....Look out above especially for intermediate and some of the junior gold stocks.

THNX,CHRIS POWELL,you are correct it was my echo bay not my bema'so i take it from your post this is to my advantage.Is consolidation like this something we can expect,and as investors do we want this.thnx again 21 mabry

"the profit in life is paid in the homor never received, for respect has no price higher than when truth is displayed for free"

" the profit in life is paid in the honor never received, for respect has no price higher than when truth is displayed for free" /FOA 5/26/99 Msg ID:6766

$385+

Could you KINDLY teach Spot 'n Spike some discipline ;o) They are making such a rucous running around the neigborhood BITING shorts that it's almost impossible to concentrate on my work. Please! :):)

Leigh - yes, Megatron is a friend, his wife is a work colleague and friend of mine. In fact it was Megatron who introduced me to this forum, and I too miss his presence here. I know he appreciates your words of support. Hope all is well with your extended family. And YES...I too look forward to the PARTY of all PARTIES!!

Twas the #42 WA !! not to be confuzzed with the OTHER WA !!
BUT, SPIKE AND SPOT were left alone and ....have been GOING WILD ......and I see that $386. "barrier" has now been overcome !!
WAY ta GO, SPOT !
<;-)

PM shares have not been confirming - leading as of late,
but based upon the technicals of the PM shares, they appear to be ready for a 2 to 3 week run up.

So where and how high does anyone think spot is going to go?

James Turk's number of in the 435 range starting to look light -

Shares are set up for a run, spot's figured out how to climb the tree to catch the short cats. Unfortunately, this action is not discounting a short 1 week war.

Can't have everything, but I'll settle for a fair market price for my bulliion - and we're not close yet. . . .

Our patience is our virtue - hang in there all, going to be a great ride. . .

Pizz

With spot up over $7 tonight, various thoughts come to mind....

It's starting to look like the long-submerged basketball has been released from the deep end of the pool. If so, the "pop" will be an event to remember. Those doing TA see a "cup and handle" formation in the offing which virtually demands that POG test $400. With a TA mindset, they'll be expecting a "handle" to form at/near the $400 mark as human nature kicks in ("Hey, it's back up to $400 so I can sell and get my money back!"); and they expect to ponder the "handle" for days or weeks to see whether it drops below some moving average or takes off from there. Well, the TA guys are in for a surprise. Totally apart from a war in the offing, worldwide movement away from the dollar and towards gold should take us past $400 with no more resistance than we saw earlier today at $378 (another official resistance point). For one thing, a lot of those who held on from the previous $400 level are true believers who won't jump at the chance to get back their original $400. For another, today's buyers in China weren't even allowed to play the last time gold was at $400.

My crystal ball (which was already wrong last month!) says we pass the $400 mark shortly after lunchtime on Thursday, the day after tomorrow. Mainstream investors will be joining us between $400 and $600. After that, things start to get foggy but I wouldn't bet against $750 before the end of February.

No, make that up $7.40. No, make it $8.00. Wherever spot ends up tonight, it looks like we're in for daily increases measured in double-digit dollars.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htmIn his commentary Wrap Up for February 4TH, he has a fair bit of information on Silver.

Hope you find it interesting.

In celebration of the Lunar New Year and in light of recent interest and happenings, would you entertain the thought of a general amnesty for those posters who may have been previously admonished? Of course, a short string would be in order.

Noble1

Remember: History has shown that gold has always been a prized possession.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm
Snippit:

there is another element here that isn't discussed as widely in financial circles, and that is gold, once again, is reverting back towards its historical role as real money. In addition, it is also assuming its role as a safe haven and refuge in times of crises. In the last decade whenever a financial crises or geopolitical crises would erupt, investors headed for the dollar. Throughout the 1990s, from the peso crisis in 1994, the Asian crisis in 1997, LTCM and Russia in 1998, Y2K in 1999, to the recession and terrorist attacks of 9-11, the dollar supplanted gold as a refuge of safety providing shelter from the storm. Now the dollar is in a freefall, and this time around investors are putting their money into precious metals, gold, silver, and platinum.

The prices of all three precious metals are rising in response to each new financial or political crisis that erupts. It is also not just a freak occurrence here in the US; it is becoming a global phenomenon. Gold is rising against all major currencies around the globe. It started in Asia where after a decade of deflation and multiple recessions, Japanese investors are pulling their money out of banks and buying bullion. It just isn't investors here in the US, or anyone country in particular; it is everywhere from Latin America, North America, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. This can be viewed from the world gold indices taken from our gold site. Gold is becoming money again and silver will shortly follow with a more explosive upside.


Black Blade: It is quite a comprehensive overview of the Precious Metals market and the fundamental case for precious metals. There is much more than I can discuss in a short paragraph here � just click the link and read for yourselves. That said, the price rise in the PMs is partly war premium but as the Wall Street touts say � "it is already factored into the price". The reason the metals are rising is the falling dollar, greater demand than supply, declining production, falling equities markets and a Secular BEAR MARKET that will last for years, and rising energy costs that will last for years (especially NatGas and electricity � not necessarily oil). The US dollar has simply lost its edge as a store of value and the recent Japanese intervention is nothing short of foolishness throwing Yen into a sucking black hole. The Japanese see through this and see their lives are about to change forever � not for the better. So they prefer to draw out what savings they have left and buy PMs and any other hard asset before the flurry of worthless Yen ala Weimar Republic flows from the BOJ. The Chinese are waiting in lines at retailers to liberate Gold as soon as it hits the shelves (even at higher prices) and Indians must have Gold for Wedding Season so they will buy regardless, not to mention that middle class Indians are buying bullion for investment. Ya just gotta know that the shorts are shaking in their booties. Lines of defense are crumbling as the tactical retreat of the shorts, bankers, and investment houses is turning into a rout. So far it has been very entertaining to watch.

If anyone wants to you can listen to cramers show on street.com.He has no shame he pedaled all those crash and burn tech stocks,now he acts like he was lied to by companies he recommended.Well if thats the case he was a crappy fund manager its the job of the fund manager to know the companies he is buying,thats his job,now cramer acts like he is for the little guy.He is a TOOL of the establishment monied elite who caused all this,his book makes me sick too.

Round 1 Gold 415.00, silver 5.12 shorts worried, financial news anchors mocking the "barbaric relics"
Round 2 Gold 481.00, silver 5.50 shorts trying to cover, FN anchors begging for war to start so premium will come out of market
Round 3 Gold 674.00, silver 9.01 shorts all dead and graves being desecrated by angry investors, Few surviving FN anchors, all unemployed, selling apples and pencils on street corners.
Can't help ya'll with rounds 4 to 15. Will go the distance, believe with a unaminous decision on our side though. Remember its a title fight, get physical!

Spot and Spike are working hard. If i was close would feed um some veal cutlets with my grandma's good brown gravy!
Note: the spread on silver and gold now is at 78/1 which i think is the high since the 1950's

financialsense
Thank you...and what a night for Au

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APj_ylxYeUGltY28n
Snippit:

Newport Beach, California, Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The weaker dollar is a signal the U.S. may lose its status as the world's chief magnet for investment and an ``economic powerhouse,'' said Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund. The cost of an extended defense against terrorist threats has combined with the past stock market bubble, high personal debt, and a large trade deficit to leave the U.S. economy and its currency vulnerable when foreigners decide to withhold investment, Gross said on Pacific Investment Management Co.'s Web site. ``Foreigners have and will continue to sell the dollar and U.S. investments in fear of guns-and-butter bills to come,'' Gross wrote. ``Because of 9/11 and our necessity to fight a new kind of war, America is losing its peace dividend at a time when'' it can't afford to, he wrote. ``The end to the strong dollar is but the most visible reversal of U.S. hegemonic policies in recent months,'' Gross wrote. ``I'm not so sure that we are, or perhaps will be the economic powerhouse we once were.''

Black Blade: Amen to that!

but now...At $387......the cartel may have lost it altogether. Or they may be letting it go with the "War" as an excuse. Well, the "War" IS a bit late and if the French take a latte and veto... well...could they still start a war? With all those AK-47 toting kids running around Baghdad and Basra?

Anglogold has to cover 320 tonnes of hedges. The others over 2,000 tonnes. And then there's Barrick. And AIG[There short too]...who got bombed today for -10%.

Forget the bullion banks like JPM, they don't care. They got their gold for free, just ask William Harrison, off the record of course.

Will the shares catch tomorrow? Maybe yes, maybe no. There seems to be an unlimited capacity for denial in the gold market. Then there's the gold funds waiting for a "Pull-back". The "Pull-back" will be to $400 after reaching $425.

The thing is going up. The thing is not going down. Get used to it.

The R^2 values on the PM Fix since Dec4th are over .93. THAT is a straight line. But the line will be steeper tomorrow. And maybe steeper the next day. The Dec 2003 intercept of that line is $630, tomorrow it may be $700. The "Line" ignores the war. If there is to be one.

They are capitulating for lack of metal to sell. Their once-great "Coalition" of central bank sellers with a never-ending rain of propagandist [Kudlow and Cramer] lies is a bit light these days. Their gold supply is a tad thin. "Gold is killing us", Cramer 2/4/2003.

He doesn't know what "Killing IS".

Pasts $400 Past $500 Cramer will only BEGIN to get a hint of what a killing is. The dollar is headed to 65 by December 2003. R^2 of .95. Wall Street will be incinerated.

Silver, on the other hand, has a secret official seller now that the defense silver stockpile has been sold. Who could that seller be? BTW Warren is rumored to be buying again. Just a rumor.

It's Mexico, by deduction. Will Vincente Fox keep going?

At some point it's everyman for himself. If Vincente thinks he can get $15 per ounce, he'll move. Or maybe Warren can outbid Bush.

0942 [Dow Jones] Gold's surge to multi-year highs signals Greenspan era of stable, falling U.S. inflation over, new era similar to 1970s stagflation has started, says Deutsche Bank's Kenneth Landon; "the plunge in the value of the dollar relative to gold is the biggest monetary story of the past two decades." Still tips USD/JPY at 110 by midyear; dismisses Japan MOF yen-selling intervention as "just a side show...compared to the important factors driving the value of the dollar." (AXS)

Waverider: Interesting Yahoo headline and newsnip considering the noise in the media at the moment regarding the "war premium"...and from the DeutscheBank!

http://money.cnn.com/2003/02/04/news/economy/pimco_gross.reut/index.htm
Snippit:

"Many of us will have to adjust, either in the form of higher unemployment, an increased price for imported goods, or heavier indirect taxes in the form of higher inflation and interest rates," he said. "Investment strategies, both bond and equity, should put these secular reversals at the top of their 'A' list when considering opportunities to make relative and absolute returns." Gross also made waves last September when he said 5,000 was fair value for the Dow Jones industrial average. The index closed Monday at 8,109.82, 62 percent above that figure. In his commentary, Gross continued that U.S. hegemony has been based since the 1930s on military domination and a superior economy, until recently reflected in a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, he said the United States is at times pursuing more restrictive trade policies, which might invite retaliation by other countries. The U.S. trade deficit widened in November to a record $40.1 billion, Commerce Department data show. As a result of the changes, Gross said, non-U.S. investors might pull more money out of the country. "Foreigners have and will continue to sell the dollar and U.S. investments in fear of guns and butter bills to come," he said. "America," he added, "will attempt to preserve its hegemony by biasing, and in some cases reversing, free trade and open financial market policies that do not favor the U.S. All of this implies that our peace dividend, not only in the terms of lower defense expenditures, but U.S. domination of (and benefits from) free capital markets and free trade, are nearing an end."


Black Blade: I have to agree with most of Gross's assessment. And the primates on Wall Street think that the rise of PM prices is due to "war jitters"? Hmmm�

As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt (though if you haven't by now it's likely too late), stash enough emergency cash to meet several months� expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. As I stated about a month ago, I would be more likely to accumulate physical PMs over shares at this point. Indeed, physical PMs outperformed shares for the last several weeks and may continue to do so for the near term. But the physical is your insurance position and shares are for trading. I would err on the side of getting fully insured for now.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/02/04/news/economy/challenger.reut/index.htm
Firms note plans to cut 132,222 jobs in January, a 42% increase from December, according to report.

Snippit:

In the latest sign of a still-wobbly U.S. labor market, companies said they intended to slash 132,222 jobs from their payrolls last month, a 42 percent jump from the 92,917 planned layoffs announced in December, employment research firm Challenger Gray & Christmas said. "Even if businesses were in a position to hire, many would probably delay such action in light of the uncertainty surrounding Iraq," said John Challenger, chief executive of Challenger Gray. A conflict in Iraq would have a dramatic impact on U.S. businesses, affecting everything from the price of oil and fuel to the ability to transport goods and services overseas, the report said.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows and will continue to grow. The staggering increase in lay off announcements is only the beginning and of course no one is mentioning that there are several thousand who are called up into the Reserves and National Guard who are not working at their "day job". "Interesting Times"

A US$ is as good as.....Mike Tyson...until a Lennox Lewis comes along.
I probably feel the same way toward Mike as I do the Dollar...they're both hard to like, but I LOVE to watch them FIGHT!
Certainly didn't expect to see PGold as high as it is tonight Sir B, thought it would "hover" awhile around $370...most surprising too is the disdain it's currently showing the DI...(sector WOULD be pleased!)
To paraphrase Kashogi...The Papergold market won't fail for lack of Paper.
Interesting developments...tread warily Sir B....and congrats on your #96709.

KNOCKED SPOT back $5 !
OK, SPOT, you know what to do with that PAPER !
Relax a while and then BITE 'em AGAIN !!
"SOMEONE" must be a "little WORRIED", Ay ?
<;-)

SO excited that I could not spell --- "Avalanche"
<;-)

foreign investors are even more discouraged with their own economies than they are with America's. German shoppers have "stopped spending," says the BBC. Wages in Japan are falling...along with employment. European manufacturing is down for the 5th month in a row.

*** Investors who cannot stomach either U.S. equities or foreign ones are turning to gold. The yellow metal has a great advantage in tough times. Managed by no one...it cannot be mismanaged. Nor does it lie to creditors...or go broke in a crisis. And unlike Bernanke's dollar, it cannot be inflated away when the managers feel the urge.

Bill Bonner---Daily Reckoning

"This morning we tried to hire a diamond-tipped drill but were told there was none available," said Ron Manners, chairman of Croesus Mining NL (Australia:CRS.AX - News), Australia's third-biggest gold producer.

"Such a thing was unheard of until now."

Spot gold (XAU=) was bid as high as $386.75 an ounce in early afternoon trade as investors piled into a metal known as a sure bet in troubled times.

It was fetching $385.50/386.25 at 0520 GMT, compared with $379.50 last quoted in New York.

Bullion has gained 13 percent since the start of the year, bolstered by fears of a U.S.-led attack on Iraq and jitters over North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

Rising oil prices, slumping stocks and a weak dollar have added fire to a rally fuelled by heavy speculative buying in Japan.

"It's definitely a flight to safety," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia commodities strategist David Thurtell. "If I were long, I'd be hanging on. Maybe not buying at this price, but not selling either."

North Korea said on Wednesday it would take "stronger self-defensive measures" in response to proposals to beef up U.S. forces in the Pacific region as a deterrent to the communist state in the event of war in Iraq.

Meanwhile, chief U.N. arms inspector Hans Blix warned it was "five minutes to midnight" as he urged Iraq to show it was cooperating with officials charged with hunting banned weapons.

Colin Powell is due to appear before the U.N. Security Council at 1530 GMT.

JAPAN GOES GOLD CRAZY

Japanese investors continued to shovel money into gold futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), sending contracts to 10-� year highs in record-breaking trade.

The most-active December gold contract (JAUZ3) was up 28 yen in mid-afternoon at 1,489 yen per gram, a level not seen since August 1992.

Turnover hit unprecedented volumes, with trade in the December contract alone topping 350,000 lots, or 350 tonnes.

That compared with a total of 294,510 lots for all six gold contracts traded during Tuesday's full-day session.

Brokers strained to remember the last time TOCOM was so frantic, with activity dwarfing even the stampede seen last February when fears of a financial meltdown sent Japanese running for the shelter of safe-haven assets.

Osamu Ikeda, general manager of precious metals at Japan's biggest bullion house, Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K., said ordinary Japanese were turning up in droves to buy gold bars and coins.

"We're also seeing just as many sellers," he said. "People who bought back in 1999 when gold prices hit a low of 917 yen per gram are taking advantage of the high price."

Tanaka Kikinzoku said its bullion sales for investment purposes soared 54 percent in calendar 2002 as investors funneled money to gold from stocks and other assets.

SILVER SHINES

Traders said gold was now eyeing $390, although fears remained of a looming correction given the mountain of speculative long positions built up over recent weeks.

"People have been saying it's overbought for $20, but it's still going up," said Greg Fan, senior dealer at NM Rothschild in Hong Kong.

"It's better just to go with the flow. We haven't seen these price levels for so many years, so where you see good resistance is anyone's guess."

Shares in Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (Tokyo:5713.T - News), Japan's biggest gold producer, were up 3.26 percent in mid-afternoon at 475 yen.

The excitement spilled over into other precious metals, with silver (XAG=) surging to a six-month high of $4.95/97 an ounce.

Platinum (XPT=), fetching $689/694 an ounce at 0530 GMT, was hovering within sight of 23-year highs hit last week amid supply fears and forecasts of greater fuel-call demand. (Additional reporting by James Regan in Sydney)

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Cfvxy%2Ctnxy%2Cgcg03.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=15&go.y=14Solid showing in Bonds against a weakening Dollar...and Gold strength.
4.65% on the 30 Yr will be tested shortly...previous triple bottom...just prior to 50bp rate-cut "mid-meeting" I might add.

Seen on a placard outside UN HQ NY:-
"how did OUR oil get under THEIR sand?" ...HA!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2724637.stm
Snippit:

The president of the oil producers organisation Opec has said that supplies from most of the group's members might be cut when the organisation meets next month. Abdullah al Attiyah, who is also the oil minister of Qatar, that there could be a three million barrel a day glut in the near future. Opec's planning has been disrupted for the past two months by a strike in the oil fields of Venezuela, the group's third largest supplier. In addition, the oil market is approaching a time of the year when demand is relatively weak - when the northern hemisphere winter ends but before the summer motoring season gets underway. Opec officials fear the result of these two developments could be excess supplies and a price crash. So several of them, including the group's president, have been suggesting that cuts in production quota are likely when they are discussed at a meeting next month.

Black Blade: Venezuelan production will not likely recover to pre-strike levels as lower reservoir pressures during the shutdown has effectively permanently eliminated marginal wells from the production picture. Russia is now encountering delivery problems. Should Saddam spark off his wells in a scorched earth policy that will remove another significant portion of oil production. However, the big story in US hydrocarbon energy remains the decline of NG supply and production.

Just a note of thanks to Black Blade & Boilermaker on input of the current feelings on coal. I have a hunch coal will once again be our primary source of hydrocarbons in the not to distant future.

Belgian- your post #96709 well said. Another & FOA postings starting way back in 1997 said it all. We witness today the unfolding of events which to me were hard to grasp then, when they where first mentioned. I constantly re-read Thoughts & the Gold Trail and try to grasp further meanings,
there is so much hidden in these writings.

"A world waits for something to happen that is done"
ANOTHER(THOUGHTS) Nov.23rd 1997 09:18

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlPROHIBITIONS
4. Promotional posts in general.
Examples include promotion of your organization, yourself (includes posting e-mail addresses), a company you work for or invest in, and promotion of internet sites and businesses that compete directly with USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals

Waverider: Actually no Epic, this is not a stock-talk forum so this content is not welcome here. I have included the link here to review the posting guidelines which our gracious host has clearly outlined. Please respect them.

Food for thought.

An old friend of mine tracked me down while he was passing through town on business. Among other things he wanted to pick my brain for my latest thoughts on gold. He listened and liked what he heard. Then he informed me that he'd be a buyer as soon as gold climbed to $400/ounce.

How about that. Some folks are waiting, hoping for a retracement to buy gold at lower prices if opportunity allows it, while other folks are waiting to buy when gold shows "indomitability" through higher prices.

Different strokes for different folks. It would seem that you have only missed the boat if you choose not to board at all at any price.

More food for thought. Take a look at a gold price graph for the past 30 years, and take a look also at the DJIA over a similar time period. Which one do you think is more likely to simply double sooner than the other from its current level? Gold is on an uptrend, and $760 levels have been familiar territory even in a younger world less burdened with a flood of loose paper; meanwhile, the DOW is on a downtrend in which a double to the ozone at 16,000 seems only doable in a flight of fancy.

The boat is afloat on the high sea. 'Board it when you will' is all I can say.

R.

Today marked the end of a fairly recent weekly trend that I began to notice a few months back. On average, and based on my perception (I have no data to support this), I began to expect the following price action based on the day of the week:

Monday - flat to slightly down
Tuesday - spiked down
Wednesday - modest recovery but limited at the close
Thursday - modest gain
Friday - surprise gain in the last few hours of trading

Today is the first Tuesday that I can remember where the price action was so volatile to the upside. I believe that POG will hit $400 by lunch time Thursday and will close just under $410 Friday afternoon.

I may be wrong. I often am.

PAPER AVALANCHE - literally

Done and done.

The focused purpose of the forum is for discussion of the role of gold coins and bullion in diversifying a portfolio against the realities of today's economic headlines. Promotion of gold stocks is a topic to be pursued elsewhere so as not to dilute the focus here on gold itself.

After all, if we don't focus on gold and related monetary economics here, where else is it going to be done?

Experience shows that once stocks start to be discussed, the general level of discussion quickly deteriorates from fundamental economic considerations into superficial snapshots of alphabet soup -- i.e., a litany of everyone's pet ticker symbols, AU, SYM, BOL, GLD, STX, etc...

R.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030205/markets_global_1.htmlSINGAPORE, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Worries that U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's speech on Iraq could be a harbinger of war sent gold soaring to a six-and-a-half year high on Wednesday as investors piled into the traditional safe haven.

Gold, long used as a hedge against financial strife, has gained more than 12 percent since the start of the year...

[meanwhile...] The dollar has fallen some 3.7 percent against the euro and 2.56 percent against the Swiss franc since the beginning of the year...

--------(article at url)-------

Gold up 12% while dollar down only 3-ish. The metal has gained purchasing power above and beyond mere compensation for a shrinking dollar. Happily, this phenomenon is to be expected -- all things considered. Call USAGOLD-Centennial today to stake your claim in a nicely diversified portfolio.

R.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Euro markets are following up yesterday's drubbing with another negative start today. Asia was mixed with the Nikkei squeaking out a slight gain while the other markets fell lower. BTW, the USD is back down sub 99.

- Black Blade

http://www.usagold.com/announcement/international.htmlFrom New Zealand to the Netherlands, from Australia to Austria, from the British Isles to the Great White North, we offer the service you want and the professionalism you need.

We are pleased to pass along what our European clientele have been telling us -- that our pricing is superior to most of their banks and brokerage firms. Further, we support and encourage delivery of the gold while our competitors primarily promote certificate programs. With USAGOLD - Centennial you'll get a good price AND GET what you pay for!

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=1&sBackUrl=&dbrushwidth=&charttype=&gd1=&gd2=&benchmark=∈fos=∈dtype1=∈dtype2=&volumen=
Now up $386.30 in London trade on a nice sharp spike.

- Black Blade

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Q. What is the best approach for the safe-haven investor?

MK. If you want to protect yourself against inflation, deflation, stock market weakness and potential currency problems -- in other words, if an economic disaster is your concern, there is only one portfolio item that will serve you in all seasons and under most circumstances -- gold coins or bullion.

Q. In recent years, we have seen a large number of gold dealers proliferate on the internet. What do you have to say about that?

MK. The internet offers an interesting challenge for the gold buyer. Fly-by-night firms are as big a problem in the gold business as they are in other areas of the investment business. One major problem at the moment are all the one-man-do-it-from-your-basement internet operations that have cropped up in the last few years. How does one know that the individual with whom you are dealing in these situations is legit? We've even heard of instances where some of these people actually have criminal records or have had past problems with regulatory authorities -- like the Federal Trade Commission or the Securities and Exchange Commission. After all, what does it take to go on-line with a website? Anyone can do it. It's up to the consumer to do their due-diligence before doing business with these operations.

Q. Any comments about your own internet presence?

MK. First and foremost, USAGOLD / Centennial has always been a brick-and-mortar brokerage headquartered in secure and professional office space here in Denver, Colorado. In function our own website is just a readily-available extension of our advertising and marketing programs. The USAGOLD website further gives us the opportunity to easily provide our clientele with timely market information and commentary.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030205/markets_japan_gold_2.html
Snippit:

TOKYO, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures rushed to 10-� year highs in record-breaking trade on Wednesday as nervous investors shoveled money into the traditional safe haven. Hours before a speech by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell that many see as a prelude to war in Iraq, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange logged its busiest-ever session as speculators piled into gold and energy futures. Gold turnover was estimated at a staggering 524,674 lots or 524 tonnes, up from Tuesday's 294,510 lots. Turnover for the benchmark December contract alone was a jaw-dropping 397,714 lots.

Black Blade: War in Iraq and rumblings from North Korea maybe, but add in a weak US dollar against an even weaker Yen amid a nation mired in deflation, an insolvent banking sector, a government hell bent on scuttling its currency, a stock market set on self destruct, rising energy costs, etc. and of course Japanese are going to run scared looking for Gold, Silver, and Platinum or any hard asset to grab a hold of. The Japanese economy is a basket case and the people know it.

Spot is currently at $388.70 and going straight up. All afterburners are glowing now. Could make $390 before the night is over.

- Black Blade

We're gonna win the (golden) cup (fool of beer)!

What a wonderful night!!

My joy is only tempered by the knowledge of the pain which is comming to those who have not heeded the warnings posted here for the past number of years.

For those with their retirment savings in mutual funds I would like to proclaim a moment of silence. For the older folks who saved all their lives and invested their life saving in "safe" instruments, I weep. Indeed wealth is being destroyed tonight as the USD is unclothed. Its nakeness is laid bare for all to see.

Gold up? perhaps. More correctly USD down!!

P.S. Black Blade, thanks for all the wonderful posts and links. Tonight I am a rich man because of your and others tireless posts on this web site.

Letting Gold-up and the dollar-down, run away with such momentum...is a shoutingly invitation to come and take profits as to let some steam off the kettle. The steeper the moves become, the more urgent profit taking is "needed".
But these kind of parabolic moves, are at the same time, new invitations for later repetition of the same actions.
Sort of wakie, wakie, calls of a very fundamental nature.

POG's new, enormous, trend can only be broken if 330$ is crashed on an eventual down-knocker . I don't bet a single cent on this.

The main Fear-Factor in the markets comes from the crude-oil factor (POO) and not the Iraqi war or Saddam as such.
It is a war against OPEC ! The world's economies hanging on the oil-rope. A very terrifying situation. Getting Iraqi oil, manu militari, into the market...against a reasonable, peacefull solution, through the dollar taking some steps backwards and letting the euro-alternative, clear the job with oil for euro. Quite a dilemma. That's what we are watching today...tomorrow.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/charts/cdcharttcl?symm=GLD.FX1&hist=1&dbrushwidth=1&charttype=1&gd1=na&gd2=na&benchmark=∈fos=3∈dtype1=0∈dtype2=0&volumen=2
The air was just a bit thin up there for Spot. Topped at $389 before oxygen deprivation sapped Spot. Time to catch his breath before another try. Besides, Spot ran out of chart on the upside and banged his head.

- Black Blade

Spot barely stops to catch his breath as $390 is breached!!!

I'm going to need to take some valium to calm myself down

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030205/financial_bankofamerica_1.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp. aims to cut around 1,000 technology and back office jobs in the first quarter of this year in a move to cut costs in the face of tough economic conditions, the bank's spokeswoman in London said on Wednesday.

Black Blade: It's always good to see Bank of America doing its part by getting in on the action by contributing to the growing "Bone Pile".

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The US market index futures are sharply lower, the USD is falling (hard), PMs are solidly higher and poised to pierce the $390 level, oil is higher while NatGas is flat, and grains are lower (hmmm...).

Could get very "interesting" today and what happens after Sec. Colin Powell's speech this morning is anyones guess. Early indications are that war with Iraq is a "done deal". Looks like a lot of "entertainment" will be provided by the little rodentia (or is that vermin?) we call Lemmings.

- Black Blade

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/030205/eu_fin_germany_jobless_1.html
Snippit:

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- Germany's jobless rate rose in January to 11 percent, or 4.62 million jobless, the highest point during Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's administration, the country's federal labor office said Wednesday.

Black Blade: That's a lot of German "Bones" cast atop the "Bone Pile". Hey, didn't old Gerhard promise to do something about unemployment during the recent election? Hmmm�

Snip:

Within several months North Korea could extract 25-30kg of plutonium - enough for four to six nuclear weapons - from the 8,000 fuel rods it has stored at the Yongbyon nuclear facility.

But Mr Armitage defended US policy of using diplomacy to deal with Pyongyang while preparing for war with Baghdad.

The number two official in the state department declined to describe the dispute with North Korea as a "crisis", as he came under intense questioning from Democrat senators on whether the administration had its priorities mixed up.

Instead he called it a "big problem" and insisted direct talks between the US and North Korea were the way forward.
.........
Russia attacked the US approach to North Korea, exposing a widening rift between Moscow and Washington over the issue.

Moscow said it opposed any reinforcement of US forces in the Pacific and criticised Washington's plan to refer North Korea to the UN Security Council.

US officials have also expressed frustration over what they see as a lack of Chinese pressure on Pyongyang.

Mr Armitage conceded that North Korea was a worse proliferator than Iraq, selling missiles to Yemen, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt "and other places". The US also had "suspicions" that North Korea had spread nuclear weapons technology, indicating that Pakistan and Libya might have benefited.
*********
Misetich

On the geopolitical front things are heating up- More disputes and disagreements with their allies and foes - action and reaction - lets stay tuned on this trail

Got gold?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23571-2003Feb4.htmlSnip:

Job cuts announced by U.S. corporations in January increased 42 percent from December, led by the retail, commodities and transportation sectors, the outplacement firm of Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said Tuesday
.............

Announced job cuts for January totaled 132,222 compared with 92,917 in December, Challenger said.

**********
Misetich

Keyword is "announced" - which is probably way below actual

Unemployment rising - unemployment benefits payments rising - income tax inflows are reduced -
Consumer debt payments and debts defaults are rising - How long before the housing bubble bursts?

Got gold?

http://www.moodys.com/cust/loadHighLight.asp?documentID=1501700000004426∨iginal=1Snip:

Moody's says that the current economic environment and underfunded status of many defined benefit pension plans demand increased scrutiny of a company's pension liabilities and costs, and funding requirements. Specifically, understanding a company's current and future cash contributions to these plans is key to Moody's analysis.
"Moody's places its greatest emphasis on assessing future cash flow requirements needed to fund companies' defined benefit pension plans," says Moody's Senior Vice President Steve Oman in a new rating methodology report on pension obligations. "When required contributions appear likely to exceed a company's internal funding capabilities, or could impair the company's ability to make critical business investments, a reassessment of the rating may be warranted."
*********
Misetich

"They" couldn't post-pone (credit rating) any further as the "hoped" economy and stock market recovery is a dream - back to reality -
The vicious circle continues unabated - stock market down - creates additional financial stress -

Got gold?

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Japan-Bankruptcy.htmlSnip:

TOKYO (AP) -- A record 214,000 Japanese individuals filed for bankruptcy last year as the nation continued to struggle with its now chronic economic slump, Japan's top court said Tuesday.

A total of 214,634 Japanese filed for bankruptcy nationwide in 2002, up 33.8 percent from 160,457 the previous year, Supreme Court spokesman Isao Umezawa said.

********
Misetich

Many investors don't realize the present global economic conditions -
Unemployment is on the rise in Germany, consumer confidence hit a new low in France - US -

Globalization has its advantageous in upturn - but it is disastrous in a downturn as it promotes "deflation"

Corporations are facing higher energy costs - stagnant sales - margin squeeze -

Unemployment is on the rise - where to consumer spending?

Who stands to lose the most? Probably investors whose holdings are in higher inflated p/e ratios! = Wall Street

and yes the "war" drums are beating faster

How does one provide "insurance" to their portfolios?

Got gold?

Looks like gold had a good night with spot hitting 390
and silver 4.96 I see now that the PM's are heading
lower with silver down 6 cents. It's weird to see the
dollar rising and US stocks turning around with all the
bad news today, I mean you can't even find any good news
Cisco earnings sure didn't do much and more and more jobs are
going to the bone pile and then there's the speech at the
UN. Now that is were we might see the surprise I wonder
if someone knows somthing that Powell is going to get the
support he needs for the war. It's going to be a wild ride
today that's for sure. I sure didn't like to see silver
start out the day under water it takes so long for it to
gain any ground but it can lose ground in a heart beat.

..in about 15 minutesThey want it just a little above yesterday's $376.50. That way they stay on the regression line. By doing so, they are maintaining a steady, derivative managed up slope that hits $630 by the end of the year.

It's clear they haven't yet let gold go to a new level that would be covered by a war excuse. A kind of Doppler shift up. But still Asian runs to almost $390 with the attendant physical draw down in Japan are hardly the stuff of an organized retreat.

It's the Japanese who are the 800 pound gorillas to worry about because they have so much ready cash -- $600 Billion -- more than enough to swamp any manipulation using paper. Even with paper the bad guys still are required to loan their gold and they are running out of gold to lend.

http://www.rense.com/general34/realre.htmThe Real but Unspoken Reason for Iraq War

There have been several posts about this article already on the Forum (Trojan #96590, Clink #96592, and Waterboy #96611, among others), but I haven't seen much discussion anywhere about this article and what it means for us �goldbugs�.I urge you to study this article (if you haven't seen it already).

I don't think there is much doubt about the coming war/regime change in Iraq. I take that, and the subsequent �allied� success/victory as given, and move on to what this all means for the US, Europe, US$, and POG/PM stocks down the road. What struck me so forcefully about Mr. Clark's analysis is that it is the best explanation I've seen yet re Iraq�both reasons for war, and �manifold� implications of allied success; such as [among others] (a) resurrection of US economy, the markets, and most especially the US$, using captured Iraqi oil and gold, (b) rapid drop in POO to kill OPEC and its control of oil supply and pricing, (c) death of the idea of the euro (as the new oil currency) and the dream of European Community, (d) US$ continiues as global reserve currency and �the� oil currency for the foreseeable future, and (e) the Brit/Zionist/American alliance remains in control, while all other nations are kept at their present (irrelevant) second- and third-class status.

Re rising US$ vs POG, recall FOA's: "...if the dollar banking factions were to win this round, we will get another little price inflation cycle and paper gold will, once again, rise a few hundred dollars. The payoff would serve the mines and leveraged paper players at the expense of long term wealth creation for physical gold advocates. In past cycle form, the statist would send the paper gold price back to the pits." [from FOA (10/3/01; 10:21:26MT - usagold.com msg#110) The makings of a dust storm]. And if POG tanks, won't the PM stock prices go with it? Is this the reason for the recent heavy shorting of gold stocks: Insiders/Big Players/�People in the know� are unconcerned about the current (temporary) rise in the price of �paper gold� and are shorting PM stocks like crazy, in order to profit big time in the near future?

I hope I'm wrong about all this, but I see no way around it. This article is an important kick-butt, eye-opening read. I think this analysis should be discussed re near-future POG and PMs. See what you think.

I appreciate this Forum and the people who share their knowledge and understanding here. I've benefitted greatly from the insights of many of the members, particularly Another/FOA, Aristotle (I got me some), and Black Blade. I am in your debt.

Best wishes to all,
DuncanIdaho

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if this is it, i am not too impressed! buy now, buy cheap..

The more Powell talks the weaker the PM's
get gold 376 & silver down 9 cents!! ouch
it will take some time for silver to get
back on it's feet. Also the dow is up 80
points +/-. Like I said it's going to be a wild
ride today hold on tight... Dollar is falling
I was just told... Hmmm. ;o)

FOREX shows gold at 380+ and going up. That buying opportunity lasted all of 20 minutes, it seems. Window is getting smaller and smaller.

Yosemite Sam (Cabal) walks through the swinging doors at the Golden Carrot Salon. "I am the meaneast, toughest, anti gold desperato west of the Pecos. Bang Bang Bang BAng..." I mean to shoot down all you little gold bug lovin critters" Bang Bang Bang. " I hate gold bugs..."
Bugs Bunny turns from the bar, reaches into his vest, pulls out a one year gold chart and holds it up for Sam to see and while calmly crunching on a golden carrot, says..."Eh....whats up doc?"

Yo/yo continues gold going up some now
+2.60. 381 Jump spot.. :o)

I've posted some things on my Fib-based TA in the past.

One of my core principles is to look very hard at the 78.6% retracement level - which marks the watershed between a good retracement and a new trend. If exceeded, there is a very good chance that the instrument in question goes to the 127.2% level and possibly the 161.8% level in short order.

Apply this to the 1996-99 downmove from $414.8 to $254.8 and the 78.6% comes in at 380.56. Other significant levels are:

38.2% - 315.9
48.6% - 332.6
61.8% - 353.7
78.6% - 380.6
100% - 414.8
127.2% - 458.0
161.8% - 513.7

The point is that these numbers represent equilibrium levels (and correspond to the reciprocals of roots of the golden mean) - they may be broken, they may not be, but they indicate key resistance levels.

In general the 2 most important numbers are the 61.8 and 78.6 numbers - note the 61.8 was bang on Jim Sinclair's 354 figure - not surprising that gold stalled here and then went ballistic.

In many ways, 380.6 is the most important number of them all. I normally look for a close 1.5-2% above a key level to indicate PM fix in the 386-88 range)

We can thus expect the mother of battles around this level. Today's PM fix at 382.10 is encouraging, but we need to hold the AM highs to prove that we are through. Soon, I hope.

That last price dip lasted for only 20 minutes and failed to send the POG below $375. The Powers That Be in my view attempted a surreptitious and medium move to try to extend the window for the shorts to save themselves. The fact that the dip lasted for less than half a day and couldn't send gold below $375 shows that they are running out of ammo and will be getting desperate soon. Look for another of these "corrections" and look for it to fail as well. Then you might actually see a direct and open move by the CBs. Are you all singing "Rocket Man" by now? Gold ain't coming down for a long long time.

Today's comex price dip is probably about the most significant dip I expect to see, having hit a very brief low of about 373 a half hour ago. and now the price is hovering about 375. If anyone's been waiting to buy on a dip, I would say this is probably as good a dip as we might expect to see. So acquire some today.
If the iraq thing goes extremely well, we might see a brief dip to perhaps 360 - but I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that - highly speculative. Most likely, the strong upward trend will continue unabated. So today's dip is probably the best we'll see. Make hay while the sun shines and spin some of that hay into gold during today's dip!

Best regards,
Nibelung

Many of us are strewn across the battlefield now licking our wounds. You have to give it to the cabal. They are reckless and brutal.
I'm going to pick myself up and fight another day. This is going to be a long war with a lot of ambush's in the offing. Get used to it brave hearts; They are not going away!!

Any idea why silver lost 16 cents on the day falling
clear back to 4.72? Did I miss some news somewhere?
Any Info would be of great help? Thanks!! ;o)

$380 is the last ditch before the real gold rally starts. As per my last post a close in the $386-8 is fatal, so that today's action was 100% predictable.

Take a step back from this and you'll see that we're $6 above Monday's close and have just shown that $372 resistance has become support - so I'm not too concerned.

I nevertheless find it incredible that the US media continues to pump out the 'Iraqi war premium in POG' story and that people actually seem to believe this garbage. As if your average Chinese/Japanese/Indian is buying gold because of the twists and turns in the Dubya-Saddam cat and mouse game.

We've also heard that the Indian father of the bride-to-be has been pulling his hair out because gold is soaring and taking jewellery prices, so presumably all the cartel has done today is to give the Subcontinent a big wedding present, which is jolly nice of them, don't you agree!

The nature of potential events forms a continuum. Possibilities are not parcelled into conveniently packaged likelyhoods. There are two things at this point, however, that are each more probable than many other contingencies. Neither is guaranteed to occur. Something else could happen. But these two come most predominately to mind.

1. In recent days, the main upward movement in POG has occurred after the U.S. close. The reason for this could be one of several things. But if this pattern continues, POG could well be expected to rise tonight as it has done before. Or,

2. The present selloff is merely typical and will abate. Thereafter, having diminished its force, buyers will once more step in. In this case it may be wiser not to buy on these dips but to wait for further ones, which, most likely, will be followed by a pronounced reduction in selling.

The www.ino.com site is good for perceiving this, but you may have to register there to see them.

As freqeuntly happens in our world, possibility number one and possibility number two -though both possible- do not have the same recommended plan of activity for the speculator, which is one reason speculators are called 'speculators' and not 'sure-thingers'.

Also, neither actuality can be known absolutely for sure just by looking at charts through your browser window. This makes certainty inapplicable. But since the primary trend for gold is up, holding gold overcomes the negative aspect of both contingencies, since, merely by holding on, headway will sooner or later be made.

This is a major victory. I lost the last contest because my guess was too high! My guess was $375.00! Just think where we were just that long ago. Think about where we were just a few weeks ago. They beat the price of gold down in New York but it goes up overseas. I used to be impressed by people who could manipulate the price of gold world wide. It would appear that they have lost the power to do that in a large part of the world. We are winning

There was an OBVIOUS all-out effort in all markets today to put a good spin on Powells' speech at the UN. Even CNBC got into the act. Did you notice that they were showing the POG on the ticker with their always present DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P ticker? Curious that they would do that on the day that gold takes a hit. They are still showing it now even after the gold trading is over at -2.70. I sure didn't notice them showing the POG yesterday. If you think about it, being down only $2.70 following an $8 rise yesterday is not too bad. I was expecting a larger drop. The gold stocks still showing a net gain from yeterday.

The powers that be seem to be batting 1000 today as the major stock indicators are all up. Gold and crude are down. And all of the spin-miesters are out in force. Still a couple of hours to go and the markets could turn, but it would seem the cabal is out in force and in control....today. As Cyberbat said: "They are not going away", but I think they will become less and less effective....tomorrow.

These are the times that try men's souls.........

..but gold sure helps

Aint Nothing But a ThingToday is no biggie mate. The battlefield lines (yr Gold chart) show the steadily advancing lines of the Gold Team and a most definitive retreat of the Gold Manipulation Team.
They got off a few rounds today as they continue to give ground. Cant blame them, last night they were retreating at a rate/speed that almost bespeaks of a panic run. Glad to see they regrouped enough to get some of their wits back. I say the Samuri will take to to them again tonight.

I dreamed last night of a river bank. I was standing on a grassy path above the water, twenty or thirty feet below. Beside me and my friends were two large marble scupltures, both curved, perhaps the letter D, like posts to a vast abandoned gate. There were patches of disarrayed earthy clumps on the bank below, topped by grass and weeds, as though recently descended from higher places. I realized the bank would fall. I began to say, "The bank is going to collapse," and as I spoke this, suddenly the ground gave way, mud and grass and the two Ds and me and friends all falling toward the muddy river. I grabbed a nearby tree and it descended with me into the water. The water was deep, but I only sank into up to my thighs, while everyone else was up to their necks. I thank gold for this. And I probably don't need to point out that DOW and Dollar both start with D. And of course we all know what bank could possibly give way.

"These are the times that try men's souls..." And, "They are a changin'."

I agree...They are a changin.

Another quote from Thomas Paine:

"The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value."

I knew they would pull a double whammy when the first blow was too weak. The shorts have to be panicking about now even with the breathing room they have received. But today wasn't the shorts running like heck. Today, when POG hit $390, some bigger fish up the food chain got very scared. Today, as witnessed by the double whammy nature of the hit, I believe the bullion banks struck out of fear.

get ready folks
i tink a dow 1000 pointer (Thom Calandra) to the pink side is possibly moments away.

i LOVE this volitility in gold, wait till we get the 50 buck interday moves like the old days

this bull hasn't even started to snort yet, hee hee

advice, keep a box of "depends" deside your computer.

Your quote: "What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value...."

--Those in office today obtained their liberty by being born into it.

i like dreams

debt also starts with D

Hope you are right there. I can't figure out though why they won't manipulate upward since that is the trend. Could they not split both sides of this game?
Thanks

Maybe there were three Ds.

Snippit:

VANCOUVER -- Peter Linder is accustomed to making assertive top-down calls on the oil and gas sector and his move to a hedge fund hasn't changed that. "In my 25 years of looking at natural gas prices, I've never been as bullish as I am today. Never," said the former energy economist, natural gas consultant and equity analyst. "And that's not for the next three to six months, that's for the next three to eight years," he adds for good measure. Linder is bullish on natural gas because North American supply is dwindling and producers are having trouble replacing it. "I believe there's potential for a natural gas crisis later this year," Linder said. The Canadian natural-gas storage situation is more dire than the U.S. storage situation, "which people don't talk about," Linder said.

Black Blade: The article is at a subscription site (WSJ Online). This is typical sentiment of many in the energy patch. We are headed straight into another energy crisis that will hit the economy like a ton of (gold?) bricks. The last California energy crisis will pale in comparison as NG fired power will be lean, hydro power is uncertain with drought conditions persisting in much of the US, coal power straddled with "carbon credit" limitations, and several nukes shutdown for either repairs or scheduled for long term maintenance. It's a lock that there will be no economic recovery this year or next.

Silver
Back of The Envelope Notes: From what we've been reading concerning the incredible properties of silver, I'm of the opinion that this metal should not be used for photography in a general or casual manner. The stuff is just too good.

So let's pretend that as of last 31December the Kodaks of the world changed their ways and became responsible participants in the silver sector. This would save somewhat less than 285,000,000 ounces of silver from being foolishly destroyed. We are talking about a precious metal.

Thanks again for your financialsense/Mr. Jim Puplava direction where sharefin suggests that the world is in deficit by roughly 215,000,000 ounces every year, and this has been going on for 20 years! After glancing through some of the contributions of Messrs. Butler and Morgan, a lower 70,000,000 to 100,000,000 ounce deficit comes into play.

Let's put the annual deficit somewhere between 70 and 215,000,000 ounces every year. Topaz, that number is going to go much higher in the not too distant future.

The Kodaks of the world should be encouraged to stop using silver in such numbers. If they stop right now, we'll only have an annual SURPLUS of somewhere below 215,000,000 and 70,000,000 ounces...that's less than 43,000 to 14,000 contracts on the Comex. I'm using the max numbers because I have no idea how much silver is really needed in photography for serious reasons which would exclude Disneyland photos, etc.

M3 is used in most Au/Ag deals...cash money, as R Powell would say. The way our monetary masters have increased M3 over the years, we must conclude that this money supply has been increasing faster than our desired silver surplus. We should be overjoyed at these silver prices and as responsible citizens of the world we must encourage our Congress Person to draft a Bill which will legalize a bifurcated pricing system for silver. It could be called The Frivolous Silver Use Bill, and would require Kodak & Friends to pay double the market price.

Off the wall? Yes...but so is using silver in little cameras...it's ridiculous! It's a waste of a valuable commodity. They want a picture of The Great Wall? Buy a post card or have a vender with a digital device mail it to you. There's security agents everywhere with digital
cameras...put them to work.

Don't worry, with all that M3 floating around, our little surplus will vanish in a split second when the health freaks start buying 100 ounce bars to stick in their refrigerators and swimming pools.

We should meet this Photography Issue head on. The science/health angle is a winner. If Butler/Morgan, et al. start a campaign to penalize silver use in photography the wastrels will be destroyed by the end of the year...easy.

We are citizens first.

Thank you

...except on silver and photographyThe majority of Kodak, DuPont, Fuji, Konica and Agfa silver use is in medical x-ray film. The films start at 14 " x 17" double side thick emulsion coated and run smaller to about 8"x 8" for mammography. Although there are medical silver reclamation methods and an industry has built up around the recycling that silver, the legal archival requirements of years necessitates the continuous filing of thousands of tonnes of metallic silver on x-ray film. This film demand is growing with the aging population's growing medical needs..not to mention the rising motorcycle ["Murdercycle"] use. I once carried a film jacket that weighed in at 80 pounds...a silgle file from a single accident victim.

Digital technology can compete only so far and the equipment is very expensive relative to cassette based film. Orthopaedic applications are not suitable to digital technology as there is a very high spatial resolution requirement there.

If you want a culprit in the $5 silver mystery, give Vincente Fox a call. He is the only logical official seller that could plausibly have caused today's anomalous price. For every ounce he sells below $5 he gets another $5 from the Bushmeister... "Off balance sheet" of course.

Why do you suppose El Presidente snubbed dubya by not showing up at his inauguration? And why would the US leader get on his hands and knees and shelep on down to Mexico to the Fox ranch?

The answer is found by asking what exactly Mexico HAS that the US NEEDS. They got silver. Mountains of it.

Well... it looks like a buying opportunity. Gold slides to under $370. So much for the $372 support.

Well the cabal is getting so desperate they dont care if the whole world does know about the suppression.Every time they do this they give everyone who missed the boat a chance to buy more.Being at 370 is still ok,china will be back next monday eager to buy more cheap physical while they still can.Id love to know what wall st heard in Powell's speech to make them dump that much gold lol.Europe will pick up on this move and so will asia,and they will begin to question just what is going on...realizing the manipulation their craving for physical will increase.Wow 390 in asia to 369 in north america.Anyone notice that?Introduce wild volatility and then say things like "gold is up on hot air" all over the north american airwaves.Man did they look nervous?Comments on Powell's speech?

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlNot to be missed...

Osamu Ikeda, general manager of precious metals at Japan's biggest bullion house, Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K., told Reuters that ordinary Japanese were turning up in droves to buy gold bars and coins. Even so, Ikeda warned that there were sellers among people who bought back in 1999 - when gold prices hit a low of 917 yen per gram - who were now taking advantage of the high price.

Kikinzoku reported that its bullion sales for investment purposes soared 54% in calendar 2002, as investors funneled money to gold from stocks and other assets.

"Many individuals have recently come to us to purchase gold in chunks of 2 or 3 kilograms," a dealer from the company told the Kyodo News. "It appears that gold possession is regarded as a good method for preserving the security of one's assets from a long-term standpoint, as people have come to develop anxieties about the course of Japanese society."


Black Blade: Funds are taking profits now as one seller leads to another. However, physical demand is surging and the real deal is in short supply. The selling is likely short lived as it is simply a panic reaction by novices in the short term timing game. Meanwhile individual investors are taking up the slack buying physical gold. It should get interesting as physical is taken off the table.

CNBC reports that 120,000 gold contracts traded after the bell. That is three times normal volume. Meanwhile the USD is falling back. It should get interesting tonight when Asia gets to carry the ball.

- Black Blade

The Japanese/Chinese are probably laughing their heads off. This kind of bull in a china shop action will impress them as much as Daddy Bush throwing up over the dinner table in Tokyo.

Note also that gold stocks didn't sell off much over here and that the Dow couldn't even manage to close up on the day, despite the great Colin Powell speech.

I have a suspicion that this will go down in history as the day that the cartel lost it.

Was watching cnbc,Bob Pisani was talking and said gold futures contracts increased a great deal by 120,000 and thhats all im gonna say about that.What does that mean sounded like he wanted to get through it as fast as he could.That was 120,000 contracts'stocks and gold both down,whats up with that.Have a local radio financial show in my area,the finance expert runs a money fund in the area,has liked gold for about 2 years now always talks it up,he also likes energy,he believes commodities will do well for at least next 18 months,its a good show he helps alot of the locals with their 401k.

Wow.. TPTB are really going off their rocker. Gold closed above $380 in London and is going nuts in Japan and the rest of the Asian markets. Even the sheeple are going to begin to notice a $10 - $20 discrepancy between the markets. These guys really are desperate. Of course, I did read an article about a bullion bank that could be caught short by a billion bucks if POG continues to rise....

Silver

Are you suggesting that the frivolous use of silver by Kodac & Friends is no where near 285,000,000 ounces each year? I was assuming that we would save pretty close to the entire number creating a short lived surplus rather than our current deficit.

So, let's pretend that Kodac & Friends destroy only 1/2 of everything they touch even after The Frivolous Silver Use Bill is passed. That would be roughly 140,000,000 ounces. Instead of having a deficit of somewhere between sharfin's 215,000,000 to Butler/Morgan's 70,000,000 ounces, we would have a DEFICIT of 75,000,000 ounces to a SURPLUS of only 70,000,000...pretty close to zero if you average out the numbers. Can we agree that the deficit in the silver supply is largely due to the frivolous use of silver in photography?



Back of The Envelope: Assume the theoretical implementation of The Frivilous Silver Use Tax; the Photographic Industry decreases their silver destruction to 140,000,000 ounces per year. Sharefin's 215,000,000 ounce world DEFICIT becomes 75,000,000 and all other credible estimates go from a previous low 70,000,000 ounce DEFICIT to a very reasonable 70,000,000 ounce SURPLUS...14,000 contracts on Comex taken down for investment by insightful and responsible investors is not a large number.

Bushmeister and President Fox

Would you expand on the Bushmeister entity? If Mexico's silver is being used in a frivilous manner, the purchasers would be penalized if our legislation were inacted. Who knows, we may have to unite with the tree huggers to get legislation which would encougage end-users to husband a very important resourse. Silver should be primarily used in science and medicine not little hand held cameras. Again, we should face this photography issue square on.

We need a bumber sticker slogan...something like this:

SILVER for MEDICINE not THROWAWAY CAMERAS

We should emphasize science, medicine, silver rather than lead in soldering, and any other advanced uses of this valuable resourse. But let me close by asking you how much silver is squandered in the use of little cameras? One ounce is too much, imho.

Thank you

http://www.boston.com/dailynews/036/nation/Circuit_City_to_cut_2_000_jobs:.shtml
Snippit:

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) Circuit City Stores Inc. said Wednesday it will cut about 2,000 jobs, or 4.8 percent of its work force, and stop paying commissions to its sales staff to save money.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows again.

Off to the gym!

If we accept the theories posited on the golden trail, specifically that the paper gold markets will indeed fail, whether up or down, then we should take comfort not in the nominal price day to day, but rather in the volatility of the paper markets themselves. Suppose we see POG go down another $20 a day for the next few days through $300 only to realize that the velocity is such that the price is weeks away from $200 and then $100 per ounce. Should we panic, or would we realize that those other 5.7 billion people in the world are continuing to vote with their feet (and dollars) such that they are taking whatever dollar price that they can get for their paper contracts and purchasing physical gold given that there faith in the delievry of such metal in the paper markets no longer exists.

Could it be at all possible that some of the contracts from the latest expiry are not delivering the physical and the smart money realizes that the vast majority of physical can never be delivered? I would think that a run up as we experienced over the last 60 days may have precipitated such an event. People want physical gold. The chinese, the Russian CB and many others simply want to exchnage dolars for physical. The paper gold markets cannot facilitate this exchange. We must recognize that there exists a threshold where this realization occurs and it may have already taken place ($350? $360? $370?). The separation of physical from paper will not arrive with an official declaration that it has started. I believe that the recognition of such a separation will be only discernable in hindsight.

The Chinese populus has only begun to take physical gold off the world market.

Fail up, or fail down, the paper gold market will indeed fail and then there will be a.......

PAPER AVALANCHE

eom

Physical-Gold and paper-gold are grabbing at each other's throath. Great !
Little amounts of Physical Gold uptake (being scarcer), need to be countered with larger and larger amounts of paper gold contracts. Paper still wants to neutralize, Physical. The dollar is cornered and is losing its hedging-grips, through the Gold Giants's Physical actions.
The dollar keeps on wanting to buy "time". Time with (for)paper. The Physical-Advocates don't need goldpaper-"time" anymore.

Paper-gold will keep on trying to knock POG down, each time it will reach another parabolic intermediate high.
Thing is that the Gold-watcher must come to terms with the "who's" and "why's" of the paper and Physical camps.
And this did not yet happen. What is named as "cabal" are simply those who desire to give the dollar more time to exist and be used as reserve currency. The Physical Gold Accumulators are those who want to push the dollar back to its real proportions, another currency with less dominating force/capacity.

It is the dollar that is under increasing attack and it is the dollar that fiercly tries to defend (consolidate) itself. Today was a small but significant show of this battle. Evidence for Another's dramatic phrase of paper that will burn, dollar-paper that is.

More and more paper wishes to escape the heat (fire) and goes more and more after Physical fire-protection...GOLD !

Read WGC's message about the Switzerland inflows and POG-chart in SwFr that broke its decline-line from 1987 onwards ! Haha...the flight to safety ! Yes, but that's only the beginning of Gold's future (another's) story.

Yep, it surely will take some more time before the dollar is seriously questioned in the open ! Quite normal that a reserve-currency is not questioned that early in the beginning of its end. But the coming events in the M.E. will provide more basis for doing so, once it becomes clear what OPEC is up too with regards to what kind of currency is desired for crude oil-settlement.

Any kind of catastrophic default, will be liked by Physical Gold. But it doesn't need such defaults anymore to run to its full valuation. Those defaults, as side-effects, will only add to the already running "freezing" of the more than 20 years old, paper-circus.

We'll know soon enough.

And I thought there wouldn't be any more dips to buy! Silly me...

That silver deficit you mention has existed for the last 12 years in a row, 2003 will be the 13th. The 2002 Silver Survey which came out in the Spring of last year contained numbers through year end 2001 and estimates for 2002. Their estimate of 120 million ounces was based on an improving economy. This was not the case and the estimate was downsized to 80 million. However, I do not believe they considered that the 75% of silver coming from by-product mining would also be lowered by that same faltering economy. Copper mining especially, has been downsized. This will reduce mining production of copper and by-product silver. The 2003 Silver Survey should be available this Spring. It will give us the year end guesstimates for 2002. Even CPM's Survey numbers are very suspect. They freely admit this with the mention that the total production of 5,000 years has never been known other than as an estimate. Most of that 5,000 years of accumulation has been used up in the last century, especially in the last 50 years.
More to come......
Rich

What a night, sure not for the faint-hearted amongst us. Can't wait to see what happens today, certainly interesting times.

Your words here from 96830......

"Can we agree that the deficit in the silver supply is largely due to the frivolous use of silver in photography?"

Any production business, including mining, that operates at a profit can expand and grow. Those that operate at a loss will contract and/or disappear. The law of supply and demand indicates that a profitable business sector will expand to satisfy whatever demand exists to buy their product. If demand decreases, then unsold production will cause a cutback in production. More demand stimulates expansion, less demand discourages production.
So, one would think that the ongoing deficit in silver would stimulate more production, no? But, just the opposite has been occuring for years with many silver miners either closed or just barely financially alive. This is because there is not enough profit with silver prices at (inflation adjusted) all time lows. There is no incentive to mine silver. George Soros has a large investment in a silver mining concern in the Bolivian Andes but, the last I heard, it was put on hold as the POS was (and still is) too low. That 75% of production from by-product mining is sold as by-product at whatever the market happens to be paying with the proceeds reported on the companies books as a plus that reduces the unit cost of production of their main metal (usually copper, lead, zinc or gold).

Photographic use or any use of product should act to stimulate more production but will not until the price of silver allows miners to cover their production costs and earn a reasonable profit.

So, no, I can not agree with your statement about frivolous photographic use. There is now and has been for years more demand than production (and total supply) of silver. The Sunshine Mining Co. and other silver miners would still be producing if they hadn't been forced into bankruptcy by a too low price of silver. How can this situation exist and persist? Mr. Butler has some thoughts on this as well. I have some of my own too. I'm glad you are interested in silver. Lord knows I love gold, but there are often times when change for a gold coin is needed. This, of course, requires silver.
Rich

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=BXCA1VT32UGJQCRBAEZSFFA?type=topNews&storyID=2176929SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said on Wednesday it had restarted and put on a "normal footing" the atomic facilities at the center of its suspected nuclear weapons program.

The move raises the stakes in a crisis Pyongyang said the United States had triggered by threatening the isolated communist state.

"The DPRK (North Korea) is now putting the operation of its nuclear facilities for the production of electricity on a normal footing after their restart," said a statement by the North Korean Foreign Ministry carried on the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
__________
Escalation continues. I think the N Koreans will test a missile
soon, or even test a nuke device like India and Pak did a while
back.....N Korea wants to join the nuke club as soon as they can
thinking it will deter the US from treating them like Iraq.

The US would never sign a non-aggression pact, that would look
like capitulation big time, to a member of the axis of evil.

Goldbugs have known for a while now that gold demand is huge in Asia and, if POG is likely to get hammered down, it would probably be in London or on Comex. If this or any pattern gets noticed by the arbitrage players they will seek to profit, in this case by buying on the lows in London or New York and selling higher in Asia. Or, sell some at the higher price in Asia and then buy back lower in London or N.Y.
There is usually no more risk being short than long in commodites trading and no requirement of any title, ownership or borrowing to sell any commodity. This may (a guess on my part) be part of what happened today but, from what we've seen lately, determining the POG will NO LONGER be done without some say from the Asian markets. POG is being "fixed" by world forces, no longer a handful of cigar smokers in a backroom in London or New York.
This is just a guess but, whatever the cause(s), we were probably due a retraction. Now, will the battle intensify? I believe it will be great fun to watch!
Thoughts??
Rich

His description of Saddam's offense seemed to imply that it was the UN that should be offended, not the US. Also, it sounded to me like the tone had changed, from a hyper agressive he-better-do-something-right-now-or-we-will type of stance, to a milder oh-well-maybe-he-shouldn't-do-those-darned-things kind of attitude on the part of the US administration. This explained to me why POG went down. It seemed clear that the time frame had shifted from "any minute now!," to "the indefinite future...." I mean who is it that isn't capable of recognizing that nothing said so far would even convince an illiterate canary?

Not that there are all that many literate canaries. But I did know a Blue Jay once that sounded like my telephone. You have almost got to be able to read to be able to sing that well. That's what I would expect.

SilverR Powell (02/05/03; 17:03:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 96838)
Silver supply and demand // Daniel
Your words here from 96830......

"Can we agree that the deficit in the silver supply is largely due to the frivolous use of silver in photography?"

Thank you so much for the big picture; I appreciate it. But let's focus on the question: Is the deficit in the silver supply largely due to the frivolous use of silver in photography? Or to put it ANOTHER way: Would the silver deficit be alleviated if the sale of Throw Away Cameras required a penalty tax?...how about a 100% Frivolous Use Tax.

Thank you

Silver is too important in today's world to be used for Throw Away Cameras, imho.

You put into words what many have been wondering..

"And I thought there wouldn't be any more dips to buy! Silly me..."

There are probably many who noticed when POG broke through the 330 level and then decided that it was now time to buy. How many of them have been waiting for a setback to enter. It didn't really happen at the 350-355 level or at the 370-372 level but we surely did bounce off 390! Now we're back to that 370 level. Will it hold or no? I don't know but I'm willing to bet that many of those who have been waiting for a chance to enter will now do so. The newly acquired weak longs just bailed out. Those that now take those vacated seats will be stronger players not so easily scared off.
This may also be a good time to call our host CPM to add to the stash on this buying opportunity. I've bought from them (silver, of course) and have nothing but the best to say from the experience. I owed Town Crier this free, unsolicited plug after spoofing on his charts but I wouldn't say it if it weren't true. Great service!
Rich

http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/souba_e.htmlI think when Spot banged his head on $389.00 last night he must of banged it REAL hard, 'cause he's out cold with a concussion! Nothing that time won't heal!

BTW - I thought that all TOCOM gold contract upper and lower price limits were 40 yen/gram, but apparently not.

Someone appears to be selling the paper gold contracts as if they are worthless. If you hold a contract to buy X amount of gold at $375 and your intention is to take delivery and you find out that regardless of price that you will not be able to do so because the counter party didn't have the gold to sell in the first place, would you not feel pretty releived if you could find a sucker to take it off your hands at around $370 so you could take that cash and pick up the metal in the physical market? Such may be the very dynamic at play at the moment.

The more I think about this, the more I believe that the market will fail down. When the "price" of gold is $50 you can have as much physical gold as you want as long as you are willing to pay the modest $3,000 premium.

Paper Avalanche - a mathematical inevitability

Good one Waverider, - hope Spot makes a very speedy recovery.

Restricting silver use No, Daniel, other than in a state of emergency, I do not believe any artificial (read government mandated) restrictions or regulations should be imposed in any markets. On business philosophy I believe everyone's well being is best served through free, unrestricted markets, left alone to respond to the laws of supply and demand.

What is especially scary in your proposal of limiting the use of silver or any commodity is the fact that any such limitations made, set a precedent that increases the likelihood of future restrictions, and not only on silver! If such use limitations are to be made, who shall we deem best capable of making them? Who is better able to judge what is best for the benefit of all than the unencumbered laws or forces of free capitalism? Not perfect by any means, but what system has been proven to work better? Who shall judge who gets silver and who does not? Who shall judge the degree of necessity of each different use of silver. And, if such a system is freely accepted, shall we then also appoint some power to make other decisions in our lives? Perhaps, as was once said (Jefferson?), that government is best which governs least. Especially in economics.

A truely free silver market would set the price of silver higher and stimulate production. This higher price would also ration the use of silver so that perhaps film use might decrease in favor of other, more needful uses. However, a profitable POS would, over time, produce enough. Saving old medical records might not be a great use of silver but would you restrict the use of photographic uses of silver in all medicine? I know, just sightseeing photography, but already this presents more judgements to make for whatever power you'd have restricting use. Let the markets perform as they should and there will be enough silver. Higher silver prices would also (in the long term) re-introduce recyclable silver for future use.
Kodak is now recycling silver in plants built in China where environmental laws are somewhat less restrictive and labor is still cheap enough to allow the process. Given a higher POS this would be a profitable business anywhere. Guess why Kodak moved to China?
Rich

But Greenspan did the impossible. He made gold go down while the dollar went up. It looked as though he had created a perfectly stable economy - with high growth, low unemployment, and little inflation; people thought it would last forever.

But like wolves at a pigs' picnic, along came the "innovative financial intermediaries" to take advantage of the situation. Since the good times are here forever, Fannie Mae and other lenders seemed to whisper in the little piggies' ears, why not take advantage of them? Why not take out some of the equity from your house and live a little? Go on...why not...the house will just keep going up in price...jobs will always be plentiful...what have you got to worry about?

And so, the poor saps took the bait, and borrowed more and more...to the point where the whole system is dangerously destabilized by an excess of credit. Lenders can still lend...but only to weaker and weaker customers

http://www.channel4.com/news/home/z/stories/20030204/saddam_benn.htmlThis snippit from Saddam interview clearly explains true reasons behind world opposition to US attack on Iraq.

"Tony Benn:There are people who believe this present conflict is about oil, and I wonder if you say something about how you see the enormous oil reserves of Iraq being developed, first for the benefit of the people of Iraq and secondly for the needs of mankind.

Saddam Hussein: ....................
The consecutive American administrations were led down a path of hostility against the people of this region, including our own nation and we are part of it. Those people and others have been telling the various US administrations, especially the current one, that if you want to control the world you need to control the oil.

Therefore the destruction of Iraq is a pre-requisite to controlling oil. ........................
It seems that this argument has appealed to some US administrations especially the current one that if they control the oil in the Middle East, they would be able to control the world. They could dictate to China the size of its economic growth and interfere in its education system and could do the same to Germany and France and perhaps to Russia and Japan.

They might even tell the same to Britain if its oil doesn't satisfy its domestic consumption. It seems to me that this hostility is a trademark of the current US administration and is based on its wish to control the world and spread its hegemony................"

It seems that we can learn more about aims of our politics from our enemies than from our own politicians.

...that commodities can be sold without an underlying loan of that commodityIt isn't true.

There can be no short contract established in gold without first obtaining ownership of a contract that indirectly represents the metal�a gold loan, swap or forward sale [As from a gold producer].

If your mistaken premise that no metal ned be borrowed were true there would be no loans, swaps or forward sales on the books of the central banks.

There are 16,000 tonnes of them. AND of those banks that do report their gold derivatives, from half to 90% of their gold does not reside in the vaults. A detailed study of the subject of central bank gold receivables and gold has been published ironically, this evening over at the caf�.

Why would ANY central bank swap and therefore lose title to and possession of their gold? It can only be that as a condition of selling a short gold contract, actual metal and lots of it is necessary for the transaction and the central banks are where the gold is [Or used to be]. The borrowed, swapped [For paper] gold enters a pool of gold metal from which parties in markets draw to establish short positions. They borrow the gold and promise to return it at a later date. The gold markets of the world have consumed 16,000 tonnes of central bank gold in this manner. Unless one reads the background on this you are missing an opportunity.

Whatever your source for this painless shorting information is simply wrong. The example of gold share shorting suffices. One must borrow shares to short them and they cannot be shorted on a down tick at least in this country.

One cannot simply announce that they wish to short Harmony HMY and say "Here's my $100 dollars". The shares must be obtained from a pool. If there are none to borrow, there is no short. There almost always IS some to borrow so the mistaken impression is left that the shares or in the case of gold, the metal is always there to short. The metal in the pool comes from somewhere.

The so-called paper gold market is really a market based upon gold loans, swaps and forward sales. When a mine sells forward they commit by contract to dig the metal and deliver it in the future. They cannot later say they will give paper instead of the metal. The counter party has the preogerative to demand metal. They cannot sell the paper contract and get dollars without incurring a real obligation to dig and deliver gold. The forward seller is under a binding agreeement. Newmont has not closed their hedge book as quickly as expected and the current belief is that their counter parties are demanding gold metal.

This stuff is gold market 101 and can be read at John Hathaway's Toqueville.com site in his essay "The Golden Pyramid". A google search will direct.

It's a tantalizing and seductive thought that one can print paper and infinitely sell gold down. It is also completely fallacious. Think about it for a minute. Under your source's theory, there is nothing to stop a government entity from papering the gold market [Its natural competitor] to zero. Nothing except the required metal to borrow behind the short contracts. Without the metal as represented by a loan, swap or forward sale, one cannot establish the short contract in the first place. Examples regarding index futures do not compare to gold because they represent a constellation of equities.

Governments would love the idea that they could just keep printing their paper to destroy gold once and for all. The reason it hasn't happened is why gold is in a bull market and the official sellers had to pony up 100,000 more gold contracts AFTER the bell this evening. Those gold contracts represent real metal commitments from real owner(s). Someone offered their gold in exchange for remuneration and their gold is now dispersed into the gold market in the shape of tonight's COMEX after hours contracts.

The record of how loaned gold can be forever lost can be read of in the Drexel, Burnham, Lambert, Central Bank of Portugal gold debacle http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/tlaga102601.html. Portugal loaned a good part of their gold to Drexel and lost all of it in the so-called "Paper" only gold market�the gold could not be returned by Drexel.

The selling entities are running low on gold metal to sell and therefore cannot short as much as they once did. Metal is needed to short gold.

The markets are infected with noise. In fact, I would kindly say the infection is terminal. There are significant long term trends developing in real time right before our eyes. I try hard to tune out the news/noise and stay focused on the trend(s). It does require patience and persistence though. Get out in front of the crowd. Buy your favorite "real estate"; sit and wait for the great unwashed to pull up in front of your house. Best...CM (They are coming in droves soon.)

that German airlines (Lufthansa) are refusing to fly to Israel after next Monday.

Hmmmmmmmm.

PA

Spot's sore head Now that you mention it, I haven't seen Gandalf in a while. He must be busy tending to Spot's wounds and, I've heard it said, Gandy holds the knowledge of not only mystical spells but some powerful ancient herbal remedies. Maybe we should all sign a get well card.

http://www.jsmineset.com/s/GeneralEditorial.aspSnip...Sinclair..

Q: If the economy begins to improve in June of 2004 as you have indicated, possibly along with gold remonetization, would not growing demand from industry for silver have an effect?

A: If the scenario unfolds with the revitalization of a modernized Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio aka Gold Cover Clause then I suspect gold will trade in a range of $100 and silver would take the front running position.

ps. not quite sure what "front running position" is. Anyone out there have any answers??

Hang tight everyone. I do not know exactly where things are going in the next few days but we should have a good "gut" feeling by Thursday night about 11;00 p.m. All the talk about silver being restricted in use, unless"enviro's" seized the day and had legislation passed and signed tomorrow will not change the fundementals for at least several years to come. Mexico, Australia and the other S. American countries production is in the totals that are "net short" in annual production compared to usage. China's surplus includes refining for Austrailian companies. So the idea of Mexico helping to relieve a user shortage of North American industry is probably not happening.
Most of the industrial users deal with base metal/silver byproduct miners,primary silver miners and scrap refiners directly and any extended waiting period for delivery will not show in the spot and paper markets yet. There are no "known" large stockpiles of silver ( except for Warren buffett) anywhere on earth and in my previous posts from last month i estimate that there are only 4.5 to 6 billion oz. of ag. left worldwide (about 1 oz. per person). The vast majority of that is spread very thinly among many hands and will not flow to where it is needed efficently when TSHTF. With estimated all time mining production of au-4.1 billion oz. and silver-41 billion oz. in the last 5500 years, only 10-14% of all the silver ever mined is left but 90% of the gold is still estimated to exist.
To me the greatest cheerleading one could find for silver in the mid to long term is the fact that most silver is found in epithermal deposits, which means that they are much closer to the surface than gold. It is estimated that only 7 to 8% of all the gold that exists on the surface to 7500 ft. depth has been discovered, but that 70 to 75% of all the primary silver deposits have been found.
So what if they threw paper on the pile today. It was wet so it did not burst into flames but it was thrown on a very "hot" fire so it will eventually burn. TPTB only hope is that everyone will throw in the towel and that they will catch them all. Modern science and industry find over 1400 new uses for gold, silver and the PMG evry year so unless mankind votes to go to a pre-industrial age again then the freeing up of the PM prices will happen. It is set in stone but No One truly knows the day.
As always JMVHO, DYODD and all welcomed to respond.

The free market has a terrific mechanism that regulates the use of any scarce commodity-- it's called price. No need for a "frivolous use" tax. Theoretically, at least. Antal Fekete (if I remember correctly) makes the argument that that modern commodity markets do not price non-renewable resources correctly, thanks mainly to the futures market. Futures markets are quite appropriate for renewable, seasonal commodities that are dependent on variables outside man's control, like weather. Because no man can predict the weather, the speculative forces tend to balance each other out. Futures are NOT appropriate for non-renewable resources as the speculative forces do not balance out; instead, the inevitable result is to artificially depress prices. Nowhere is this more obvious than the silver market.

It is a positive feedback loop: consumers of silver want the lowest price they can get and are eager to lock in low prices via forward contracts. Management at natural resource companies are more concerned with keeping their jobs than enhancing shareholder value, and are all too willing to hedge production--they get their big salaries either way. Banks and market makers want to keep the futures game alive because they make their living on the transaction fees. Who loses? The economy as a whole. In economics, this is called an "externality", and is more or less the same dilemma as the classic "tragedy of the commons".

Now think about how currency inflation and a securities market bubble exacerbates the feedback loop. Monumental amounts of currency continue to be created, while non-renewable commodities prices stay depressed; thus it takes a smaller and smaller percentage of total outstanding liquidity to keep the commodities prices depressed. Furthermore, an explosion of paper currency engenders an explosion in paper assets, and as the infrastructure builds up to profit from the trade of those paper assets, it tends to want to keep the money circulating in paper, not commodities.

Now that shareholder awareness has been raised, and miners are finally de-hedging, at least one part of the positive feedback loop has been disabled. Unfortunately, there is so much paper currency about that we'll need a major liquidity crisis to occur before the giants take their foot off of silver's neck. Assuming that the Fed will honor their promise to run the presses overtime, the liquidity problem is going to have to occur in the COMEX silver stocks. This underscores Sinclair's admonition regarding the importance of taking delivery of futures contracts. That is the ONLY way to accelerate the end of the price suppression.

And the end of the non-renewable commodity price suppression scheme MUST be accelerated. The fundamental problem is this: the same pricing dynamics that depress silver and gold are also depressing oil and natural gas prices. This means that we are walking blindfolded into the abyss. It's one thing to wake up one day and have silver at $200/ounce. But what happens when the price of oil suddenly takes off like a rocket, and we haven't prepared any alternative sources?? It will be too late to start!! You need to spend energy to do the research to discover and develop alternative energy sources. If, one day, we have to choose between growing food and heating our homes to live today, or funding research to develop a viable future, what do you think will happen?

Anyhow, getting back to silver: the ironic thing is, silver prices could go to $50/ounce and we probably wouldn't notice. I made a post a week or two ago where I analyzed what would happen to the price of film if the price of silver ten-tupled. My SWAG was that film prices might double, and that was using some generous assumptions.

Druff, you are correct, there are many many more valuable uses for silver than throwaway cameras. Silver is a miracle handed down straight from God's hands to us, and yet we treat it with no respect. But our economy--as well as our attitudes about almost everything that is paper and illusory--will have to change profoundly before silver is unchained. Passing a "frivolous use" tax won't be the answer.

Fact:

From about 4:00am last night to a half-hour ago spot has plunged 20 dollars. Let's examine why.

Preamble:

Early in the day and even during Powell's presentation gold was holding it's own. I checked my PM portfolio and at a point around noonish it was up. The wheels came off and gold and PM's have since fallen off a cliff. The pundits claim that Powell did not do a good enough sell job and now they see that the US cannot go it alone, war is postponed, the immediate threat is over.

Concept 1:

If the US is to 'conquer' Iraq and liberate oil, the economy will fly, the US dollar should strength, gold should drop.

Concept 2:

The cost of the war, if the US acts alone will be costly. The dollar will fall, gold will rise.

The market seemingly thinks (in terms of gold) that the postponement of war, the US not acting alone, is bad for gold. The fact the the 'liberation of oil' is imaterial, again in terms of gold.

So what is the drill here? Ultimately if the US doesn't get its hands on the oil, recession is guaranteed, yes? No oil flow, no recovery, dollar death and gold flies yes?

So how is today's events so bad for gold, especially since the USD has not changed a heck of alot?

Confused.

Maybe Spot's been kidnapped! By the cabal! This could be serious, Waverider!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,889600,00.htmlNorth Korea is entitled to launch a pre-emptive strike against the US rather than wait until the American military have finished with Iraq, the North's foreign ministry told the Guardian yesterday.

Warning that the current nuclear crisis is worse than that in 1994, when the peninsula stood on the brink of oblivion, a ministry spokesman called on Britain to use its influence with Washington to avert war.

"The United States says that after Iraq, we are next", said the deputy director Ri Pyong-gap, "but we have our own countermeasures. Pre-emptive attacks are not the exclusive right of the US."

His comments came on a day when tension was apparent in Pyongyang, with an air-raid drill that cleared the city's streets and the North's announcement that it has begun full-scale operations at the Yongbyon nuclear plant, the suspected site of weapons-grade plutonium production.

Since reopening the plant in December, the North has kicked out international inspectors and withdrawn from the global treaty to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.

Anxiety in North Korea has been rising since Washington announced plans in the past week to beef up its military strength in the area. Additional bombers will be sent to the region, along with 2,000 extra troops who will serve alongside the 17,000 already stationed on the North-South border. USS Carl Vinson may also be deployed.

According to Pyongyang, the USS Kitty Hawk has already taken up strike position in waters off the peninsula. The US says that reinforcements are needed to warn Pyongyang that it should not try to take advantage of Washington's focus on Iraq.

North Korean officials fear the extra forces are the start of the build-up for a full-scale confrontation - a dangerous assumption that could push the peninsula over the edge.

During the last crisis, when the Pentagon planned a surgical strike on the Yongbyon nuclear plant, American generals were convinced that the North would rather launch a surprise attack than wait for a US military build-up.

Mr Ri said today's stand-off is more dangerous: "The present situation can be called graver than it was in 1993. It will be touch and go."

sector on shorts, with COMEX in mind, looks alot like sector on Kinross. Remember that one? lol

He got one part right, though.

"there is nothing to stop a government entity from papering the gold market [Its natural competitor] to zero."

Too bad in context he was using it as a "can't happen" expample, though. lol

Keep trying, RPowell. You might get through to him eventually. Tell him the following story.

Today was a perfect day for the locals and anyone else with a short bias to run down the paper in NY. Everybody and their uncle who wanted to be long had made a point to establish all their positions before the Colin Powell presentation. That had been a stiff wind of buying pressure, but when the big event arrived they were spent and the short interests took advantage of the easy opportunity to sell a chunk of goldless short contracts to run the stops. They fell like dominoes. No gold needed to do the job of driving that wimpy market down. That's why the smart guys are preaching physical, so that people don't get raped so easy like the futures players today. I guess those guys can say they got some, but not the kind to be bragging about. lol

My understanding of the gold leasing market is that bullion banks lease central bank gold, take possession of it, and sell it into the physical marketplace. They then take the cash and invest it in paper assets. The end date on the lease is negotiable, and probably can be rolled over without much effort. In other words, this is more of an OTC-type market, featuring face-to-face deals where relationships can be leveraged in case someone needs a little flexibility.

This is separate and distinct from the futures market, which is an exchange market. The bullion banks can't sell futures contracts to raise cash, because they need to put the cash to work for an indeterminate length of time, whereas futures contracts have a fixed expiration that must be respected. So the bullion banks go to the central banks and avail themselves of leasing in order to raise funds to perpetrate whatever return-generating schemes they have in mind.

I think what R Powell is talking about is futures contracts (not gold leasing), which (I believe) can be written completely naked. In fact the COMEX silver exchange rules state you can write unlimited amounts of silver futures, but you are limited in the number of contracts you can buy. That's how they screwed the Hunt brothers.

Of course, the bullion banks might get into the futures market as well, in order to sell as many futures contracts as it takes to keep the price down for long enough to get out of their lease deals, or for whatever other reason they might deem expedient. The point is, the different markets might serve different purposes: they use the futures market to manipulate prices, and they use the leasing market to generate cash to put to work to generate real returns.

As an aside, the OTC gold derivatives that everyone talks about (i.e. JPM and Citibank) are probably gold leases or some kind of customized, special purpose deals related to gold leasing. In fact, by definition, these OTC derivatives CANNOT be futures, because futures are exchange-traded, not OTC.

So maybe you guys are trying to compare apples and oranges... can anyone check my thinking here??

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=27525Mumbai, February 5:�ICICI Bank is fast preparing to become a full-fledged bullion bank by offering a slew of gold-related products, including paper gold, that can be traded on any exchange � existing or new. This follows the bank's launch of ICICI Gold Coins in December last, which was the country's first formal offering of gold as an investment product by any recognised agency.


Interestingly, ICICI Bank's foray into gold is being fully supported by the London-based World Gold Council (WGC), a non-profit entity of the world's gold-producing companies. Currently, the 20-odd entities permitted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to import gold function only as consignment agents for the gold-consuming industry � jewellery-makers and exporters. A bullion bank, however, is more than a consignment agent and offers a range of gold-related investment products, including physical and paper gold.

The bank's formal foray into gold comes at a time when the precious yellow metal is once again gaining in importance the worldover compared with equities and the US dollar. Even RBI, in consultation with the government, is cautiously relaxing its policies on gold, which is expected to give a fillip to the concept of bullion banking in India.

And so we continue,
Your words......


"There can be no short contract established in gold without first obtaining ownership of a contract that indirectly represents the metal�a gold loan, swap or forward sale [As from a gold producer].

If your mistaken premise that no metal ned be borrowed were true there would be no loans, swaps or forward sales on the books of the central banks."


The first statement is simply not true. I'll find some quotes with references later. For now, let me say that I've often shorted silver, corn, the S+P index number and other commodities with no more backing than my margin. Indeed, the exchange differentiates between those that produce and/or use a commodity (called commercials) and those who neither produce nor use but nevertheless enter into contract agreements (called speculators). The specs provide the liquidity so that buyers and sellers are always available so that producers can sell and buyers can buy anytime but these speculators neither own nor use the product.

However, I'd like to question your logic in the second statement. How does the fact that shorting can be done without any ownership, possession or loan lead you to conclude that this (true) fact means that "there would be no loans, swaps or forward sales on the books of the central banks?

Unbacked shorting of commodites is not only possible but an everyday occurance among those called speculative players.
If those banks you mentioned want to engage in loans, swaps or forward sales they can. If they simply want to short gold, they can. If they want to do both, they can.
Please call any commodity broker and ask if you can sell what you do not have in the commodities market. Also refer back to post 95541.
Rich

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B32552B1C%2D40AA%2D47F5%2DBF13%2D43C62A52F3C6%7D&siteid=mktwSAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Financial markets are exhibiting serious signs of stress.

Researcher Paul F. Desmond sees increased indicators of a looming meltdown in stocks. Desmond has distinguished himself from most other U.S. strategists by his assertion that the stock market, with valuations not far from all-time highs, has yet to experience the intense selling needed to create true bargain hunting.
__________
I was in a currency exchange store today and found out
they were out of 10 oz silver bullion bars. They were running
low on 50 oz bars and had trouble getting stock. The owner
saw me and mentioned he thought it was smart to buy silver.
Just thought I'd mention it. No biggie

Re: Sec State Powell speach- buy on rumor sell on news, profit taking. In bull markets you see sharp dramatic corrections.
With long term US deficits piling up its a buying opportunity
I would guess. IMHO

"My understanding of the gold leasing market is that bullion banks lease central bank gold, take possession of it, and sell it into the physical marketplace "You are correct in your beliefs.

One can always buy future gold contracts with dollars. One can profit hansomely by purchasing and demanding delivery. It's just that one cannot sell short without an underlying source pool of metal.

The fact that several central bank vaults are half or in some cases 90% empty while they claim the gold as a receivable is strong evidence of the truth that gold loans, swaps and forward sales drain real metal. Metal that in all likelihood will never be returned.

The contracts offered after hours were obtained from a source of gold loans. swaps or forward sales.

@agmountain Please explain why the central governments have not sold gold to zero with their paper money as you seem to imply?

Short selling Page 92-93 of Jake Bernstein's "How the Futures Markets Work" published by New York Institute of Finance gives a very good explanation (with examples) of short selling. It confirms that no title or ownership of any kind is necessary to short sell.
This book is a common bookstore item. It's in Chapter 6, "The Basics of Tradings Futures", pages 92-93 in my paperback edition.
If your intent is to actually deliver gold on notice day through a futures contract then gold, in the acceptable form must be produced, of course, but the "having" is not a requirement of shorting gold. Remember, approximately 98% of all contracts are settled by offset which means cash gains or losses, no physical anything.
I think we have beaten this issue to death and other members of the forum are likely to start throwing rocks at us soon. However, I think we conducted ourselves well and hopefully others can decide for themselves. It is (imho) a relevent topic. Perhaps some others who trade can confirm my view? Anyone?
Rich

Does HK gold market close for Lunar New Year? POG on a real roller coaster ride.

Zero isn't in any CBs best interest. That's the short but full answer to your question. Your attempt to change the direction of this is an easy dodge usually used by people when they find that their own case is lost. You're not giving up already are you? It looks like you understand a thing or two about bullion banking, but your ability to connect the dots is awul. You can't seem to figure out how the exchanges like COMEX factor in, and you're trying to connect dots that don't connect. Your mixing apples and oranges indiscriminately and selling us lemons. I'm just trying to help in the same way a farmer gives directions without leaving his hoe to do the driving for the lost guys.

Hong Kong trading resumed on Tuesday the fourth of February.

Who will write the story, of the destruction of our beloved western civilization? Surely someone is feeding of this cruelty we see, and can tell the tale.

Belgium, you are so right, that the walking dollar corpse is getting angry, and seeks to destroy any in its path. We now glorify speculators, and traders, but do we know that it is the farmers that we will need to save us.

I personally am getting tired at watching this destruction, on trying to understand all the details of manipulation, and countermanipulation. I want to take my onces and pray they can save me and my loved ones from some of the vast depravation the west will soon know.

Although I find speculation very interesting, I can see that it can also destroy you. I want no part of that.

I know this is a gloomy post, but this is how I feel today. I don't care if the price of gold goes up or down, I just am happy to own some.

It appears that Sinclair is suggesting some possible officially recognised monetary reconnection between gold and paper money. He calls this a "Gold Cover Clause".

Is he perhaps also including silver here, as in a two metal loosely backed monetary system? When he opines that silver "would take the front running position" is he refering to the fact that there is more gold in a monetary backing form than there is silver? Physicalman just mentioned some numbers pertaining to both gold and silver and percentages of what may now remain (in readily available form?) of each. Thanks, physicalman, I always enjoy and learn from your offerings. I was green with envy when you mentioned the size of your positions recently. Wowsers!

Silvergolong, Agree entirely. The Comex and other silver exchanges are entirely paper games. I don't believe any silver flows through Comex between producers and users. This idea struck Morgan as very likely to be true and is his opinion also. I like to call Comex silver "the silver of last resort".

Note for Sector, Butler has reported that there is more silver shorted on Comex than exists in the entire world! No ownership required for shorting. To short stocks (equities) "borrowing" is required as you correctly stated. This is not required with commodities.
Rich

I think Gandalf is feeding Spot dollar bills to help him recover. This morning the dollar was gaining strength, this afternoon as I type, the NIKEEI is red and the Euro is gaining.

...what gold did you sell?In an earlier post you suggested that central banks had not appreciably lost their gold in the loan issue, that their gold was pretty much still in the vaults...that the paper gold market didn't really require metal...that the loans could be settled for paper.

The facts suggest otherwise and can be seen clearly at the cafe in "Gold Receivables and Gold". There is a substantial loss of central bank physical gold into the world markets by direct audit of the respective annual reports and by direct inspection of the central babnk's central bank, the BIS's "Held in bars" historical category. Search BIS.org.

I have suggested that an underlying gold loan, swap or forward sale is required to short gold. Perhaps I should make it crystal clear for the benefit of new commers.

The market maker COMEX must provide liquidity in the form of metal. THAT metal came from loans, swaps and forward sales. It appears obvious that an individual customer need not call a central bank and borrow gold to short it.

Perhaps I should have been clearer.

The logic of central bank gold loans supplying markets:

Large gold market liquidity [500 tonnes per day on the LBMA] requires large gold loans. If there were no requirement for metallic loans etc., the central banks would still have all their gold because there would not be a market consumption force. The central banks manifestly do not have all their gold. Thus, the markets consume metal, lots of metal�16,000 tonnes of gold. According to the BIS Triennial report. The market has consumed loaned gold.

The concept of required market making liquidity is what I am speaking about. They are real loans and swaps for real metal even though not all of the contracts go to delivery. No loans, no liquidity. Without liquidity, which is the warehouse of paper gold loans there can be no market. The gold loan liquidity is far larger than the depository physical bars, though it is not seen but is quite real.

Without liquidity there would be no metal to sell short and no expectation of getting metal delivered when one buys long. Gold loans provide the liquidity without which the COMEX or LBMA could not exist. Your commodities broker just doesn't see that liquidity when he or she takes out a short contract.

Liquidity is the pool of metal I referred to from which one borrows to sell short.

I have been trading commodities for 40 years. All that you need to sell Gold short at the current time is $1350. However, if you stay short beyond 1st notice day, you better have Gold to deliver. That is how the market is kept honest.

because that would mean their un-backed fiat paper had won the......ultimate gold war. The barbarous relic dead at last.

So...why hasn't the government sold gold to zero with their pretty paper on your no-metal-required markets?

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/05/business/05CND-JOBS.html?ex=1045112400&en=4efa0461553e81bc&ei=5062∂ner=GOOGLEThe American economy has fallen into its worst hiring slump in almost 20 years, and many business executives say they remain unsure when it will end.

With economic growth having slowed to less than 1 percent in recent months, about one million people appear to have dropped out of the labor force, neither working nor looking for a job, according to government figures.
Advertisement

The surge in discouraged workers is the most significant since the months immediately following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and it suggests that the pain of joblessness is worsening even though the nation's official unemployment rate, which counts only people looking for work, held steady at 6 percent in December.

The lack of jobs has also slowed wage growth, so that only workers in the most affluent group are still gaining ground on inflation, ending a six-year streak of increases in buying power across the board.
___________
Sounds like a recession to me.

Your 96861 post is EXACTLY CORRECT !!

Thank you!

I believe I've repeatedly stated that what I'm refering to is the futures markets, in the case of gold- Comex. Lord only knows what secret OTC deals involving gold have been dreamed up over the last 5000 years.
I see evidence of both naked short selling in Comex and the leasing (selling) of gold as in the gold carry trade as means of surpressing the POG. I do know if the carry trade was initiated to lower the POG (I believe it existed because it was profitable) but the carry trade did lower the POG or that Comex short selling is intended to lower the POG (although it does) rather than make paper fiat profits for those who believe the price will drop so that they can buy back at a lower price, but both have the effect or result in lowering the POG. It's a matter of intent.

Perhaps this will help....
Selling of leased, swaped or otherwise entitled physical gold can be done to recieve payment in full (even if nothing other than a certificate is given in return for payment).

Selling of Comex gold requires only margin for the seller (and for the buyer), BUT the seller does NOT recieve any payment from the buyer unless/until delivery is made or the trade if favorable (read profitably) offset. Even then, it is the broker's clearinghouse that "credits" the account. The point being, naked selling on Comex does not provide the sellor with any payment up front for selling that which he does not have. Again, think of buying or selling the S+P number and then offsetting for a gain or loss. No one delivers or takes delivery of the number, no one owns or has title to the number but anyone with an account can buy or sell it!
Rich

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm
Snippit:

They're Not Coming Back

Today was a day like many other days in the market. The headlines all looked familiar. There was nothing extraordinary. No surprises or curve balls that would have taken the markets by surprise. Secretary of State Colin Powell told the UN that Iraq was hiding chemical weapons in underground bunkers, which was no surprise, and France and Russia urged more time for inspections. In Venezuela Chavez extends his rule and power by bringing sanctions against the main television station in the country for airing coverage of the workers strike that was unfavorable towards government. Venezuela, under Chavez, is transforming itself from a democracy to a Marxist dictatorship.

On the economic front it was more of the same. El Paso Corp., the largest U.S. owner of natural gas pipelines, slashed its dividend and boosted asset sales in order to reduce debt. Wells Fargo, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, was threatened by California authorities with loss of its license amid state allegations the bank overcharged borrowers. Agilent Technologies said its losses were wider than forecast due to slowing sales. Todd Eberhard, a New York Stockbroker, and frequent guest on financial television was arrested Wednesday on federal charges alleging he cheated clients out of millions of dollars. Cisco Systems, the largest maker of computer networking equipment, reported a 50 percent jump in income for the latest quarter despite a drop in sales. The increase in profits was the result of cost cutting and the exclusion of major expenses. The company warned that sales, which have been falling, could drop again this quarter.

The stories above of new scandals, geopolitical risks, slowing sales and profits have now become ordinary. It takes a real shocker to move the markets because these kinds of stories are so commonplace. No one is surprised by fraud anymore, nor are they moved by political risks.


Black Blade: yeah, the news gets worse day by day and investors don't even bat an eye anymore as if it's business as usual. They are just too afraid to face reality and are stunned like a deer caught in the headlights. The only real refuge has been precious metals. Even energy has been a poor performer except a very few select niche sub-sectors and a few regulated utilities. Other than that the whole equities market has been a disaster for investors and retirees who have seen their hopes and dreams vaporized by negligent financial managers or who were seduced by the carnival barkers on CNBC. These are "interesting times".

Hi, was not trying to brag when i posted my position the other night,just trying to show that when i state something about the PM's (especially silver)i am solidly behind my beliefs. Most of that silver i accumulated over the last 16 years from pawnbrokers plus small dealers who want individual coins from a collection they are buying and they don't have the money to buy and hold the bulk silver. Also have 2 -55 gallon drums of wheat pennies and a 5 gallon water jug of buffalo nickels. If everything went to hell in a handbasket they might be worth something too. I have always loved coins/collecting. Started collecting when i was 8 (paper route) and several times got behind paying my bill because i did not want to let go of any silver 90%
Have always lived way below my means,frugal..OK i'm a tightwad! There i said it! One friend said i was tighter than a bridge bolt stuck in a knitting needle.
Except for the big spree from 77 to 80 have not picked up much gold from my sources for silver, so most of my au positions are from marketmakers such as our fine hosts here.
Remember folks our hosts have a lot of capital in play in the PM markets and will be here to buy/sell in up or down markets. They are true heros to the cause!

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1420GATA consultant Bob Landis explains why Andy
Smith of gold-short Mitsui just might be wrong
about gold's prospects.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

One thing i learned playing sports,dont get to excited about a win,and dont get to down about a loss,keep a even keel.I think that may be good advice as we watch this gold market and await its outcome

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&box=ad_box_all2&tag=energy∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APkFbjRO6VS5TLiBF
Snippit:

Washington, Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. energy companies have more than $100 billion in debt coming due this year, much of which will have to be refinanced if more bankruptcies are to be avoided, a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission official said. Utilities, power producers and pipeline companies have $84 billion in short-term debt and more than $20 billion in long- term obligations maturing in 2003, said William Hederman, director of the commission's market-monitoring office. They have another $20 billion due in each of the following three years, he said. Allegheny Energy Inc., Mirant Corp. and others have said they may be forced to declare bankruptcy if they can't refinance debts. Standard & Poor's last year downgraded such companies more than 180 times, according to Hederman, as trading collapsed and power prices fell in the wake of Enron Corp.'s demise. ``The credit ratings of companies continue to go in a negative direction,'' Hederman told a commission conference in Washington. Further downgrades so far this year ``indicate more of the same, rather than that we've reached the turnaround.''


Black Blade: Most of these companies only have themselves to blame. The lure of easy money and a buying binge led them to take on more debt than they could possibly have managed even in the best of times. Now "natural selection" will take its course and the best with little debt will survive and the rest will sell off assets and eventually be owned by the lenders.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/cgi-bin/duforum/duboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=6185&forum=DCForumID30&archive=ATTENTION: USAGOLD Forum Members.

I think we all pride ourselves here on the USAGOLD Forum of being very aware and up to date on not only Gold and Silver and The Financial Markets but World Affairs as that is what Affects all the above.

The above Link Re: North Korea in my opinion is an Extremely IMPORTANT one to Read.

This is Public Testimony in the last day or so in front of a Us Government Body.

It is NOT only Scary but disturbing.

I am posting it not only for Information and Knowledge purposes but Also as a HEADS UP as to the possible effect on World Markets as the seriousness of this rapidly developing Situation unfolds.

Just look at ElGordo's Post # 96859.

I would appreciate any feedback that folks here care to offer.

We live in DRAMATIC Times.

Tuesday, February 4, 2003

THREE CRISES WITH NORTH KOREA
Ashton B. Carter
Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project
John F. Kennedy School of Government
Harvard University

Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee on Foreign Relations, thank you for inviting me to appear before this Committee to share my recollections about two previous crises with North Korea, and my suggestions regarding the current crisis.

1994
I am not an expert on North Korea. I am fond of saying that there are no real experts on this strange place, only specialists, and they don't seem to have much expertise. I became acquainted with Korean affairs in seat-of-the-pants fashion when I was serving as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy in 1994, when the first of the recent crises over North Korea sprang up.

That spring North Korea was planning to take fuel rods out of its research reactor at Yongbyon and extract the six or so bombs' worth of weapons-grade plutonium they contained. The United States was trying to deal diplomatically with this threat, but in the Pentagon we were also exploring military options. Secretary of Defense William J. Perry ordered the preparation of a plan to eliminate Yongbyon with an airstrike of conventional precision weapons. We were very confident that such a strike would eliminate the reactor and entomb the plutonium, and would also eliminate the other facilities at Yongbyon that were part of North Korea's plutonium infrastructure. In particular, we were confident that we could destroy a nuclear reactor of this kind while it was operating without causing any Chernobyl-type radioactive plume to be emitted downwind -- obviously an important consideration. Such a strike would effectively set back North Korea's nuclear ambitions many years.


Trojan: Amazing and we are going after Iraq and Ignoring North Korea.

God help us All

Snippet from Trojan article:

News reports late last week indicated that not only is the freeze no longer on at Yongbyon, but North Korea is trucking the fuel rods away where they can neither be inspected nor entombed by an airstrike. This is the disaster we faced in 1994. But as this loose nukes disaster unfolds and the options for dealing with it narrow, the world does nothing. This is especially ironic as the world prepares to disarm Iraq of chemical and biological weapons, by force if necessary. What is going on at Yongbyon as we speak is a huge foreign policy defeat for the United States and a setback for decades of U.S. nonproliferation policy. Worse, seventeen months after 9/11 it opens up a new prospect for nuclear terrorism. There are no fewer than five reasons why allowing North Korea to go nuclear with serial production of weapons is an unacceptable threat to U.S. security.
_____________
This is like a bad "B" movie-Yipes!

Silver

"Druff, you are correct, there are many many more valuable uses for silver than throwaway cameras. Silver is a miracle handed down straight from God's hands to us, and yet we treat it with no respect. But our economy--as well as our attitudes about almost everything that is paper and illusory--will have to change profoundly before silver is unchained. Passing a "frivolous use" tax won't be the answer."

You also are correct, of course. But the question really needs to be answered: Is the deficit in the silver supply largely due to the frivolous use of silver in photography?

It's possible that you and R Powell don't have the answer. That's no shame...I doubt that Messrs. Butler and Morgan do either. Nor does sector. I certainly don't know.

The underlying purpose for proposing a Frivolous Use Tax is to draw attention to the wonderful benefits of silver for mankind. Like you, I believe silver is a gift from God.

Those of us who have been fortunate enough to secure physical gold are in pretty good share at the moment. Many of our friends and loved ones have missed the boat, much to their chagrin. It would be in poor form to say, "I told you so." but it won't take much encouragement from us, this time, to convince them that the "poor man's gold" is not too far away from climbing off the deck and heading north. Many of these people have only a fraction of their stake left. The one solid play they have left is silver. The problem with silver is one of image. And it is a major one.

You gentlemen are correct in reminding us that basic unfettered economics, supply and demand, will win out in the long run. The consistent increase in the M3 and the corresponding decrease in the world's silver supply will overwhelm the bears, eventually. In the meantime we can expect to see the Kodaks of the world benefit from a subsidy of sorts...the continuation of ineffective silver promotions which will continue to foster an image of silver as the white 'trash' metal...throwaway cameras! Silver is better than that.

Thank you

Golds AcensionThe dogs stood motionless and when the first appearance of a horses head, you could hear a low growl. The horseman had instinctivly pulled back on the reigns and all stayed in place. Seconds past and then a familiar voice was heard.
Slingshot call off your dogs. It is I, Boaz. I whistled and Sadie and Wallie come to my side and sat down. Jachin rounded the trail and it was good to see friends. Placing my sword back into the sheath I asked. Who sent you to find me. Sir Rock said Boaz. I smiled. How are things at the castle. Jachin dismounting exclaimed. The days you have been gone has seen the council chamber alight many hours into the night. Stephen the Great has brought those from the Valley of Clouds, which once lived in those lands of the flags you seen in the courtyard. Much discussion. Riders have been sent south. They shall contact friends of Stephen the Great for help. Tell me Boaz, How did you find me here? Simple Slingshot, your horses backshoe has a cut in it and leaves a mark on the ground anyone can follow. I just lowered and shook my head.

What news do you have for us,Slingshot? Come over here and see for yourselves.The three approached the edge and looked out upon the open plain where armies now engaged in battle, move back and forth. I see three. The King with No Name is at the base of the mountain range and has repelled many assaults.The red and black fight for position but send forces against the King to test his strenght.

Jachin then spoke. There is another army a half days march in the east. They have green flags with cresent moon.

I have seen their scouts, said Slingshot.

Soon our people will march here and we all will be in the mix of it. Said Jachin.

They watch pieces of the chessboard move about, and clouds took the sun away.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-566645,00.html
Snippit:

An estimated quarter of Iraq's women are volunteer fighters. They are trained to strip down a rifle and to throw a grenade. They have also learnt how to skin and disembowel a rabbit. It was a skill, one woman said, that would come in handy if she ran into any American soldiers.

Black Blade: Oh my, I don't want to be eaten like a rabbit. Hmmm�

I'm amazed at all the talk about Silver lately.

I was going to wait but I will say that in a few days
I will have my hands on a news story that just might
help move Silver a bit.

I've been working on it for 2 weeks and I will post it
in a few days. It will be positive news for Silverbugs.

I feel Silver really is a "Magical Metal" it has so many
incredible uses!

Sleep Tight!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2731421.stmThursday, 6 February, 2003, 06:04 GMT
Venezuela pegs currency to US dollar

Venezuela has pegged its currency at a rate 17% stronger than what it last traded at to protect its foreign cash reserves.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez made the move as a two-month old strike by right-wing opposition groups continues to drag on the economy.
The government fixed the exchange rate at 1,598 bolivars to the US dollar.
The Venezuelan currency last traded at 1,853 to the dollar when the government halted trade on 22 January.
More soon.
===
Golden opportunity for euro oil pricing?

...come on BB, get philosophical - it's just karma on behalf of all the elk, duck, and fish in your freezer. ;o)

I think Spot is awake.

GGGRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!
Slingshot----------<>

http://www.iht.com/articles/85781.html
Snippit:

The American economy has fallen into its worst hiring slump in almost 20 years, and many business executives say they remain unsure when it will end. With economic growth having slowed to less than 1 percent in recent months, about 1 million people appear to have dropped out of the labor force, neither working nor looking for a job, according to government figures. The surge in discouraged workers is the most significant since the months immediately following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. It suggests that the pain of joblessness is worsening even though the official unemployment rate, which counts only people looking for work, held steady at 6 percent in December.
.
In the last two months of 2002, the employment decline became even worse than it had been at a comparable point in the so-called jobless recovery of the early 1990s, according to recently revised statistics from the Department of Labor. The U.S. economy has lost more than 2 million jobs, a drop of 1.5 percent, since the recent recession began in March 2001, as layoffs have continued despite the resumption of economic growth more than a year ago. The decline was 1.3 percent at the same point in the business cycle a decade ago.
.
The rapid disappearance of jobs is mirrored in Europe, where economic slowing triggered by the faltering U.S. recovery has helped fuel a rise in unemployment rates. Unemployment in Germany climbed to a four-and-a-half year high in January, figures showed Wednesday, increasing the risk that the largest European economy will trip into its second recession in two years. In France, joblessness has risen to a two-year high.
.
American executives are now saying they have been disappointed too many times already by the halting growth of the past year to begin hiring workers in significant numbers. Although the government is likely to report on Friday that the economy added some jobs in January, many executives are waiting to be convinced that business has regained a solid footing after the collapse of the late-90's economic bubble. The possibility of a war in Iraq and an increase in oil prices offers another reason for hesitation, they say.
.
The bigger problem seems to be companies' unwillingness to hire new workers. In December, the number of help-wanted advertisements in newspapers across the country fell to the lowest level in almost 40 years, according to the Conference Board, a research group in New York. An unusually large number of today's unemployed have been out of work for months. Almost 1.9 million people still looking for work have been unemployed for at least six months, triple the number of two years ago. Many other people seem to have stopped looking. Since June, the number of adults not in the labor force has jumped by more than 1 million, to 72.4 million, according to the Labor Department. Many are retired, still in school or raising children, but the sharp change suggests that a growing number have become too frustrated to continue applying for jobs.
.

Black Blade: As I have been saying all along. The "official unemployment rate" in the US is 6%, however, it is estimated to be closer to 12%. Once benefits are exhausted the unemployed are magically considered employed by the BLS. The recession is deepening and actual unemployment is rising with no end in sight. Another impact on the economy is the growing number of unemployed selling stocks to live on depleting retirement funds and driving the Bear Market on Wall Street. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months' expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. It's going to get very ugly out there.

Speaking of Karma. It reminds me of an old Far Side cartoon where Col. Sanders is standing at the Pearly Gates and sitting behind the desk staring at the "book of life" is a chicken. And Col. Sanders is thinking "oh oh".

- Black Blade

My sentiments exactly PA!
I wonder how many more "Smoking Guns" it's gonna take before the Gold "investment" brigade wake up to the fact that their investment strategy is shot full of holes!

The Papergold Market won't fail from a lack of Paper!

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets took a hit across the board tonight and the Euro markets look set to do the same.

- Black Blade

Noticed you credited mois for a posting on Silver yesterday...not mine sire, maybe that other "T" poster who,I might add, is providing a wealth of varied information for our collective absorption and dissemination.
I speak of the good Sir Trojan.

Cheers...You and He/She !

Or, it could be that the new Sec. Treas. is now in place. I seem to remember that within days of the Lindsey/O'Neil departure, gold began its rise.

msg#: 96875 You are being overly dramatic. Governments, esp. those aligned with the dollar, haven't sold gold to zero because that extremis wasn't necessary. The bull markets of the 80's and 90's did fine with gold merely kept down in the hundreds instead of the thousands.

The governments' biggest role keeping gold at bay against the dollar was mostly done by giving legal recognition for the commercial framework of the naked exchanges to exist in the style used at COMEX. Also for banking operations to keep using bullion like fiat currency in all manners of financial packages even after official gold-currencies ties were severed by collective IMF agreements. Both sides contribute to the illusion of cheap gold but you're mixing up the truth because you can't seem to tell where one ends and the other begins. COMEX is as plain and easy as the nose on your face. Start there and when you understand it you can move on productively to the black box of OTC, but you won't understand that until you understand banking, which takes about 4 lifetimes by my calculations. Were any of your father's fathers in the business? Have a child and pass the torch if you can't get there from a late start. It's worth the effort, or else keep it simple and just by gold from your heart if your brain doesn't know exactly the reasons why.

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said Thursday that any U.S. attack on its nuclear facilities would bring a "powerful counterattack" from the communist state that would mean "total war."

"When the U.S. makes a surprise attack on our peaceful nuclear facilities it will spark off a total war," the North's ruling party newspaper Rodong Sinmun said in a commentary.

"It is foolish for the U.S. to think that we sit idle with folded arms to wait until it gives orders for a forestalling attack to be started," said the commentary published in English by the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

"We will answer a forestalling attack with a powerful counterattack and a total war with a total war," it said in the latest of series of belligerent statements on the four-month-old nuclear impasse with the United States.

Insightful article showing that Greenspan based interest rates on POG (in effect, sort of maintaining the gold standard) until 6 Dec 1996 -- the day he made his "irrational exuberance" speech and the last time that gold was above $370. Raises the possibility that he may have seen the error of his ways since that date as indicated by his recent speech.
http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=1685

My apologies if this link was provided earlier, but did a quick skim of the day's posts and it didn't jump out at me. Hope you all see as much of interest here as I do.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2731539.stm
The link is about French claim Airbus victory in India
Snip: "The relationship between Airbus and India is about more than trade. It involves a true industrial partnership," [French Prime Minister Raffarin] said.

This the latest also from news.bbc.co.uk
Thursday, 6 February, 2003, 09:02 GMT
LATEST: France says time not right for second UN resolution on Iraq. More soon.

The name Jean-Claude Trichet, does it ring some bells with you?

Did anybody notice that our darling moved within a range of $16 yesterday?

The only reference yesterday to the GoldTrail was
Paper Avalanche (02/05/03; 15:53:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 96832)
Markets failing up or down?
If we accept the theories posited on the golden trail ...

Paper Avalanche only went into the burning of dollar paper. He didn't go into the new paper which is not planned to be avalanched in the short term and which will replace the dollar.

Is there nobody, except Belgian, here who believes A/FOA when they say that the dollar's timeline is up?

Are most posters here North-Americans and are they now afraid of the dollar's collapse? Thirteen months ago, i.e. the last time FOA visited us, most people were not afraid of talking about the dollar's collapse. Why the sudden silence?

Does anybody realize that the war can be averted by simply changing the oil currency? Hence my Venezuela post of yesterday evening.

" It seems that we can learn more about aims of our politics from our enemies than from our own politicians." Foreigner

http://www.smartmoney.com/bondmarketup/The rabid dogs in the Bond pit are to get a new bone to chow down on....a 3yr maggot infested morsel.
War Bond by any other name I'm thinkin.

http://209.67.30.245/jsp/markets/gol_fut_csf.jspHi Mr Hand,
Don't fret, we're watching.
The "Game" has largely moved on...to April. I'd doubt if the FoA "selloff" (I'm thinking that's what you're referring to) will materialise from the 3000 odd (300K oz) left to settle in Feb.
I have been wrong before though .....once!
It would seem Papergold is being jammed back in it's currency box, for now. Don't expect too much from the Euro yet, she's going up against the Champion of the World...whatsmore the Champ has seen her coming. We don't want her to go in underdone do we?

A "Bravo" essay ! High Quality. Thanks to Sir B.Landis and entourage. But....
For who knows "what" reason...the A/FOA-factors are, again, completely left out of the equations.
Gold, the dollar-reserve, the euro and Arabian Crude, interactions...remain on the far away sidelines.

Still a lot of doubt, about Physical Gold Accumulation that is in the process of challenging all paper.

The Tony Bennet / Saddam-intervieuw (Thanks foreigner) gives evidence of the dramatic deep-sea, cross currents !
This was not a show-talk with sensationalism as a purpose ! It was about Crude Oil...The World's crude oil as of International interest. A vital determinant in this extremely vulnarable period of grandioze paper-overvaluation or outright worthlesness ! Yes indeed Sir Topaz..." How did all that oil got under the Arabian sands" ?

Physical Gold, knows that the paper-markets can't "FIX" it anymore. Time out for further improvisations. Bob Landis is still in doubt about this. I'm not ! The East is not in doubt either.

Yes, the biting, kicking, struggling dollar-reserve, keeps on trying to divide Euroland AND ITS EURO_CONCEPT! Daily, factual evidence for that. This dynamical process will never see a finalized outcome. But GOLD will continiously profit from, and during the ongoing struggle. The paper mismatch will crash upon the rising GOLD FLOOR ! And from thereon, take a new start. That's *catalysed* by the euro-concept and its loyal adherents !

Look at the Kitco graph. We are at the exact same position and the exact same slope that we were exactly 48 hours ago. So ... we have "lost" 48 hours of progress.

I appreciate the comments made that a slow and steady progress in the gold curve is tolerated/encouraged by the PTB. The curve went out of control (rose too fast). Gold has been asked, very politely to do these days over again without the outsized gains. We are clearly headed for 600-700 per oz by the end of the year.

The magnitude and gravity of the current situation hasn't been acknowledged by many as yet....like the Frog in the broiling pot, he doesn't EVER realise he's being boiled to death.
This is classic 1929...the SM rout, interest rate decline, insipient disinflation, it took WW2 to sort that one out.
GWB etal figure, why wait 10 Yr's, let's pretend to get it on NOW! Crank up the Bond presses, take their mind off the Dollar plight and work to reflate the American Markets.
If this doesn't work it's curtains for old Buckaroo.

It's GOT TO be a Dollar thing Gent's, The Euro MUST silently watch and wait imho.

You don't hear much of the "RISE" of the Roman Empire do you?

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/06/business/06JOBS.htmlSnip:

The economy has fallen into its worst hiring slump in almost 20 years, and many business executives say they remain unsure when it will end.
The employment decline has become even worse than it was at a comparable point in the so-called jobless recovery of the early 1990's, according to recently revised statistics from the Labor Department. The economy has lost more than two million jobs, a drop of 1.5 percent, since the most recent recession began in March 2001, as layoffs have continued despite the resumption of economic growth more than a year ago. The decline was 1.3 percent at the same point in the business cycle a decade ago.

About one million people appear to have dropped out of the labor force since last summer, neither working nor looking for a job, according to government figures.
*************
Misetich
Lets see "unemployment is being reported at 6%" yet

"About one million people appear to have dropped out of the labor force since last summer, neither working nor looking for a job, according to government figures."

are not included as unemployed

No wonder income tax inflows are dwindling, state government deficits soaring and federal deficit projections are being revised by the minute - upward and upward into the trillions

Yesterday the US $ "rallied" "the Stock Market rallied" and gold got sold off - as Powell was speaking

The night before a "glitch" was blamed as after hours S&P futures rose over 100 points in just one hour before it was "corrected" - yet the trades were allowed to stand in that hour

"A country falls from within before it falls from without"
Augustus

Got gold?

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030205-wed.html#anchor0Snip:

On that basis alone, there's good reason to be suspicious about the 2003 GDP growth forecast of 2.9%. With the US economy ending 2002 on a very weak note (+0.7% in 4Q) and that weakness likely to persist at least into the current period of 2003 (latest MS estimate: +1.8%), the math makes it very hard to hit the annual growth bogey embedded in the budget. By my calculations, this weak starting point means that real GDP growth would have to average 4.6% over each of the final three quarters of 2003 just to hit the budget's annual growth target of 2.9%. Anything is possible, but with war-related economic disruptions more likely than not, the Administration's growth assumptions seem wildly optimistic to me.
This is a big deal in the art of multi-year budget accounting. Rules of thumb developed by the Congressional Budget Office indicate that Federal budgets are highly sensitive to alternative GDP growth paths. An annualized shortfall of just 0.1 percentage point in real GDP growth has been found to add $54 billion to five-year budget deficits and fully $247 billion to ten-year deficit projections. Applying that rule of thumb to a more realistic assessment of the US economic outlook underscores the perils of a runaway budget deficit. For example, consider the still-optimistic possibility that real GDP growth averages 3.2% over the final three quarters of 2003. That would produce an annual increase of 2.4%, fully 0.5 percentage point below the administration's just-unveiled economic assumptions. If that 0.5 percentage point growth shortfall is extrapolated into the future -- hardly an unrealistic assumption for a post-bubble US economy, in my view -- then the CBO's rule of thumb points to five-year deficit misses of $270 billion and ten-year shortfalls of $1.2 trillion. The problem with unrealistic economic assumptions is that their corrosive impact on the budget cumulates over time. That was one of the most painful lessons of the 1980s -- one that now seems to be totally forgotten in Washington. For that reason, alone, I believe there's a big risk that the Bush administration could be seriously understating likely budget deficits over the next several years.
The same sensitivity analysis can be performed with respect to the inflation and interest rate assumptions that are embedded in the just-unveiled White House budget. Inflation is expected to be rock steady at its current low rate for as far as the eye can see -- 1.6% for GDP prices through 2008 and 2.2% on a CPI basis over the same six-year time frame. Reflecting this extraordinary victory over both inflation and deflation, interest rates are also assumed to move up only slightly in 2003 from 40-year lows and then remain virtually stable over the next five years -- 4.0% for 90-day Treasury bills over 2004-08 and 5.4% for 10-year Treasuries. Deviations from these paths also affect the budget -- higher inflation raises revenues (lowering deficits), whereas higher interest rates increase outlays (raising deficits). For what it's worth, CBO estimates suggest that the inflation effects outweigh the interest rate effects by a factor of a little more than two-to-one -- in other words, a one-percentage-point overshoot of inflation lowers the five-year deficit by about $390 billion, whereas a one-point overshoot in interest rates is worth $150 billion on the deficit over the same period. Ah, the silver lining of inflation!
Supply-siders, of course, scream foul at everything you have just read. These are ridiculed as "static" estimates for a dynamic US economy that can only respond in the positive to the incentives of lower taxes. What is needed, they claim, is a "dynamic scoring" of incentive-driven policy changes in order to reveal the truly beneficial impacts of tax reforms. This, of course, is the same rhetorical flourish that was heard repeatedly in the 1980s as budget deficits lurched out of control -- peaking at 6.0% of GDP in 1983 and then averaging 5.2% over the next three years (1984-86). Supply-siders insist that it was runaway expenditures that did them in. Yet a CBO study argues strongly to the contrary, documenting how revenues fell some $164 billion short of the Administration's baseline estimates over this four-year period (see "Projecting Federal Tax Revenues and the Effect of Changes in Tax Law," Congressional Budget Office, December 1998).
Such revenue shortfalls in the aftermath of tax cuts are the smoking gun in this debate.
..........
Actually, today's budget deficits could matter a good deal more than they did in the 1980s. That's because America is now contemplating another multi-year fiscal stimulus with its lowest national saving rate in recorded history. In the third quarter of 2002 (latest available data), the net national saving rate -- for consumers, businesses, and the government, combined -- fell to a record low of 1.6% of GDP. This is the domestically generated saving -- after allowing for the replacement of worn-out facilities -- that is available to fund expansion in the US capital stock, the sustenance of longer-term economic growth. Reflecting this shortfall, America must borrow saving from abroad -- and run a massive current account-deficit to attract it -- in order to keep the economy growing. By way of comparison, the net national saving rate stood at 9.0% in mid-1981 on the eve of the Reagan supply-side tax cuts, more than five times the rate prevailing today.

*********
Misetich

US $ whereto?

Got gold?

Yes, the euro remains very silent during the dollar's agony and final funeral as the reserve- currency. One (the euro) should never sell the bear's skin before he's dead.

This Gold forum and CPM, is the only place, I know' that keeps on Avocating the virtues of Physical Gold in one's possession. The proprietors (m.K.) are giving evidence of a lot of courage for doing so against the main-stream, but in sympathy with, the paper-gold bugs. This forum remains unique in what it has to offer. None of these high quality on the Gold-subject is found in Euroland ! Yes, the euro has MANY...many reasons to remain absolutely QUIET !
Not in the least, because Euroland is builded upon the foundation of the euro and its concept.

You will NOT hear any dramatic, high profile, euro-manifests, pointing (revelating) to its real ambitions.
For a set of similar reasons, dollar-pessimism is not permitted and politically incorrect.
That is what I mean with deep-sea cross currents, silently taking place. America *IS* the dollar as Euroland wants to become associated with its (our-mine) euro. Logical isn't it ? America is the one who fights against Free Gold. Euroland contructed its euro in function of that Free Gold as to counter the dollar's force. You can't have both, AND the dollar AND free Gold, highly valued. The dollar made its Gold-choice, already 30 years ago. The euro made exactly the opposite one.

But these highly sensitive currency-matters can be discussed, freely, here...and only here, in function to Physical Gold evolvements. That's why more and more people will land here when they feel time is ripe for having, possessing, the Physical Gold. At the time more and more paper-adepts (any paper) become more doubtfull about its declining intrinsic worth and usefulness. The faster paper-losses rise in magnitude...the faster people will reflexe to the yellow tangible. Stocks, bonds, derivatives keep on heating up whilst returning, crashing, into the stratosphere from outer overvaluation space.

The globe's economical debacle is REAL ! Not much politico-economical maneuvering space is left. Monetary think thanks are completely silenced and don't dare to say a word or suggest a solution. All academics *hope* that the paper-circus can keep on performing, through good and bad days and that the dollar-reserve, continues to exist, function and is being used.

The US$...a Giant walking on clay feeth.

Interesting recent comments from Mr. Gold: not only did the Cartel bash the living daylights out of gold yesterday, they were also responsible for engineering the huge spike up to $390 in the first place. I tend to agree - after all, it was very nice to see gold up there, but completely out of character with recent price behaviour.

As I mentioned yesterday, I see the $380 level as a watershed between retracement and rally, so it's hardly surprising that they resort to this kind of stunt at
these levels.

Apart from the 3 and 5-years, I also expect issues of 2 3/4, 3 1/4, 3 1/2, 4 3/4, 5 1/4, 5 1/2 year bonds - the result being a Mickey-Mouse shaped yield curve.

RE your dream yesterday:
I had a dream like that once. It came after a late evening spent reading the book of Ezekiel. Cheers!

P.

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1156
Interesting article by Frank Shostak over at the Mises.org site. He gives data on the relationship between the "excess" Austrian Money Supply (AMS), and the POG. According to his chart, which shows two together, with the AMS lagged seven months, they are well correlated. His analysis indicates that the recent rise in POG was due to the rapid growth in AMS earlier in the year. He states that, since the growth rate of the excess AMS has slowed very dramatically lately, even gone slightly negative, the momentum in the POG in the coming months should abate significantly. He does show, however, what we all know, that the economy is in pretty bad shape. Interesting read.

P.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030206/markets_nymex_gold_2.html
Haven't seen this posted yet. My apologies if so. Some of the boys will have to dig a little deeper. Gold future contracts being upped to $2025 from $1350 for speculators and ... (see URL for rest)

(snippet)

Reuters
NYMEX upping COMEX gold margins at close Thursday
Thursday February 6, 8:26 am ET.

http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=687A64A9-6440-451B-BEBA40049A2D6158Rumsfeld warns of U.S. action against North Korea.

Snippet:

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has warned North Korea that the United States can deal with Pyongyang militarily while it is focused on Iraq.

Trojan: I can see North Korea working furiously to get ready for a Missle test. The one thing you Don't want to do with North Korea is issue Threats. It would be nice if Mr War could leave his Ego at home.
I'm interested to see if the U.S. Media will go with this story. Rumsfeld says North Korea is dangerous and probably has 2 nuclear Bombs and all CNN and MSNBC can do is Gush about how Great Powell was at the UN. It's North Korea, Stupid.

Thanks for the kind words, Topaz.

FT.COMBy Robert Graham in Paris
Published: February 5 2003 21:06 | Last Updated: February 5 2003 21:06

A French public prosecutor yesterday demanded a 10-month suspended sentence for Jean-Claude Trichet, governor of the Bank of France, for his alleged role in covering up the true losses of Cr�dit Lyonnais in the early 1990s.

The request came in the closing stages of the month-long trial of Mr Trichet and eight others on charges relating to the collapse of Cr�dit Lyonnais - then France's biggest commercial bank.

His chances of succeeding Wim Duisenberg as head of the European Central Bank hinge on the outcome. Mr Trichet, director-general of the treasury in the finance ministry at the time, has rejected any suggestion he was party to massaging Cr�dit Lyonnais' accounts. The prosecution also sought a 10-month suspended sentence for Jacques de Larosi�re, the then governor of the Bank of France who went on to head the International Monetary Fund, and for the other main figures in the trial.

The trial began on January 6 after more than four years of investigations. Mr Trichet has been in court only briefly, and his defence has insisted that as a senior civil servant he had no direct responsibility for the drawing up of the accounts.

Last night Mr Trichet's lawyer appeared confident that his summing-up would be sufficient to counter the prosecutor's demand.

The prosecution case has been that during late 1991 and early 1992 the French banking authorities, the supervisory authorities and the administration were aware of the bank's rapidly deteriorating situation, caused by imprudent property loans and other ventures. It is alleged that the authorities - including Mr Trichet and Mr de Larosi�re - then sought to make the Cr�dit Lyonnais accounts look more favourable, in a bid to ensure the credibility of the French banking system was undamaged and to make the bank conform to the Cook ratios governing international standards of bank solvency.

In his five-hour speech, prosecutor Jean-Pierre Bernard said: "We are not dealing with amateurs or beginners here.

"The common factor of the defendants is their professionalism. They can't say they weren't aware of accounting procedures. Representatives of the state receive practically identical administrative training. They speak the same language."
+++++++++++++++++++++++
Dave Lewis of GATA has offered this story as yet another example of official corruption in central banking. But GATA is excoriated for suggesting central bank collusion in the gold market--go figure.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A31630-2003Feb5.htmlTrojan: Is that thunder that I hear in the background or is it the rumblings of a Derivative Bomb explosion
Has anyone read the Doug Nowland Interview with Jim Puplova as yet ?

It addresses this issue in depth. I'll try to find the link. It is being described as one of the most important financial articles of the year.

http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Noland2003.htmTrojan: The Link is above. A very interesting article.

I like my Title better :-)

Jim does a Great Interview with Noland.

The Guardian printed, "North Korea is entitled to launch a pre-emptive strike against the US rather than wait until the American military have finished with Iraq, the North's foreign ministry told the Guardian yesterday."

--This is one problem with preemptive strikes, and of course there are others. On a planet like ours, where resources are limited, and where the number of places where people can stand are also limited, the question of who has a right to stand where is not merely a matter of importance to some individuals, but it is a matter of life and death for all of us. Ultimately, this question justifies a preemptive strike being exercized by anyone against anyone else. So it is not an issue of who has the right to strike first, because, implicit in our being here on earth is the fact that everyone has that right. It is instead a question of how to avoid this type of conflict, since, after all, it has the potential of reducing us and all our efforts to dust. Purchasers of physical gold tend to appreciate this more than many others, and this is one reason gold is where it is today, and it is why POG will probaby go much higher.

Another issue is this. Big entities control markets, or supposedly they do. Well, if JPM and the FED and OTHERS know how to buy and sell gold in ways that reliably produce the effects they want, making profits and trimming losses as routinely as pouring coffee into a cup, without the adverse effects which ordinary individuals are subject to when they try to do this, why is it that the flunkies who are given these tasks -and remember, even at JPM the thinking has to be done by individual people- why is it that these individuals, once having learned the inside ways of reliably making great gobs of beautiful green money by trading gold, and having learned when to get in and when to get out, why don't they then leave those places, to buy and sell privately for their own accounts, thus becoming rich as Croesus? I have not heard of this actually happening. And partly because of this I find I must greet with some degree skepticism any story about the giants being able to so effectively control such markets.

Being always susceptible to logic, I remain, with all intents and purposes, persuadable otherwise, if anyone cares to effectively topple this view.

Further, if these phantom controllers of markets are able to manipulate POG and other prices just by issuing paper, why would they bother to set up appearances to be swallowed by a gullible public? It is too obvious to the rest of us. Wouldn't that endanger their gambit? Or do they simply not care about this?

Is that margin increase a squeeze on the longs?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030206/markets_nymex_gold_2.htmlVanRip (2/6/03; 07:01:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 96915)
Margin Raised

Reuters
NYMEX upping COMEX gold margins at close Thursday
Thursday February 6, 8:26 am ET

NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The New York Mercantile Exchange will raise the amount of collateral required to trade gold futures contracts at its COMEX Division as of the close of business Thursday.
Margins on COMEX gold futures will be increased to $1,500 from $1,000 for members, member firms, and hedgers; and to $2,025 from $1,350 for speculative customers, the exchange said in a release issued late Wednesday.
====
THIS is the START of the COMEX "game" !!
NOW even PAPER "gold" becomes more "expensive" !!!!
<;-)

One can evidently have interminable discussions about conspiracy, manipulation, etc., but the basic conclusion I come to is this:

Manipulation does occur, but its nature is misunderstood. Simple example, the price of gold may have an equilibrium price of $500. Many people will say that it has been manipulated down to $250-300, to allow gold leasing to take place as a kind of free financing for bullion banks, and that if gold goes back to $500, this will represent the triumph of the free market over manipulation.

I take a slightly different view. The manipulators know full well that the equilibrium price is $500, but they also know that they have a great deal of power and influence - they thus run a pyramid scheme in which they use derivatives to push the gold price down, while spreading a campaign of disinformation to the effect that gold is going out of fashion.

At all times, however, they are aware that anyone who actually takes the other side of their short positions will reveal their plan -the smart manipulator doesn't really mind, however, since his game is simply to be long a pyramid scheme at the bottom, and short of it at the top. That way, you profit twice from using your power to move a price away from equilibrium. Once the price returns, the game is over and it's time for the next pyramid scheme in another country/market/etc.

Evidently, the manipulator always accumulates an entourage of camp followers who may actually believe the fantasy and fail to realise that the essence of the manipulation lies not in HOLDING a price away from equilibrium but in PUSHING it away from equilibrium and ALLOWING IT TO SNAP BACK due to the workings of market forces of supply and demand. The clever manipulator brings them along for the ride and then abandons them to their own fate.

The manipulators have to have a certain amount of influence, but their real power lies in the public's insatiable appetite for get rich quick schemes.

Hence the Nasdaq - the investment bankers who engineered the rally to 5,000 always knew that fair value was probably well below 1,000, but how much money would they have made if it had stayed down there. It has been to the moon and has now crashed to earth having been mercilessly shorted on the way down. It will not rise again anytime soon, because its perpetrators know that there is nothing to be gained by pumping it up again since they will only succeed in creating a collective delusion regarding tech stocks when a new technological concept comes along. It has thus been abandoned.

If you have any doubts about the above, just consider the long list of sector specific bubbles that have been and gone over the last 100 years. If anything, they have been getting more and more audacious, which is a very bad omen for the rest of us.

Gold is similar - in that it was leased down and will now be bought up. Seen from the above perspective, the gold bull market is actually the unwinding of the bullion banks' pyramid scheme - and GATA is probably wrong to see the rising gold price as the defeat of the cartel - it would be more accurate to say that it is the defeat of the more stupid elements of the cartel, since the smart ones know that every pyramid scheme must eventually unwind and that the rally in gold is just as profitable as the leasing.

This is not to disparage GATA's efforts - since they are performing the immensely valuable service of alerting the general public as to what is going on, so that it at least stands a chance of catching the deflation of the gold leasing bubble.

Such discussions need not be interminable. Once truth is arrived at, disagreement ceases.

Well here we go again gold and silver are tanking.
I was hoping for a nice pop in PM's today
looks like that's not going to happen
gold still is not looking to bad but silver
was gone down the tube. It's crazy to see silver
in the 4.60's again it will take for ever to
again that ground back again. Oh well good thing
I'm only 27 all have is time to wait and see.
;o)

To manipulate a market is essentially a hostile action. This comes from the attitude that business is war. And so it is. But the sense in which making money is not war is a larger sense and is to be preferred. To be capable of observing, recognizing, and benefitting from whatever situation may exist is a higher skill and needs not be hostile. This endows it with an advantage. Others have less interest in defeating it. Thus it attracts less violence. By buying and holding, purchasers of gold may effectively avoid -to a greater extent than many others- the manipulations you speak of, and manipulations in other markets as well.

Truthcaster, the fact that gold won't retreat below $370 for long is good. Like you I'm disappointed in silver's fall, but remember that there is no logical reason for silver to remain so. In fact, the supply issue alone will guarantee a rise in silver prices, especially as silver finds more uses in the medical and food preparation fields. The fact that silver keeps getting hammered tells me that there are some undercurrents that desperately need silver to stay low.

Your statement: "Hence the Nasdaq - the investment bankers who engineered the rally to 5,000 always knew that fair value was probably well below 1,000, but how much money would they have made if it had stayed down there. It has been to the moon and has now crashed to earth having been mercilessly shorted on the way down. It will not rise again anytime soon, because its perpetrators know that there is nothing to be gained by pumping it up again since they will only succeed in creating a collective delusion regarding tech stocks when a new technological concept comes along. It has thus been abandoned."

--Yes. I know this. Even people of above average intelligence do sometimes think that by controlling the world they may benefit themselves, and it can be true. It is also probably true that those most likely to dominate the world will be those who try to do so. For men like me, however, who don't particularly want to own and control our entire planet, but who are happy merely to be able to live quite well within a satisfactory part of one, happiness may consist less of knowing how to get what you want, than in knowing what to want. In our modern circumstance, where domination of the planet would require the deaths of many millions, I percieve that my real interests lie in knowing that energies spent on controlling others can be used for better things.

Because of this I will be happier to partake of the joys of a thrilling ride to the mountaintop, by means of physical gold, than I would be if all that mattered in my mind were to force it go there.

I have no desire to control the world either. I just have a rather cynical view of human nature, particularly when it gets into power.

WSJ snippit:

"The White House said Tuesday it has chosen Mr. (Mark) Brickell, a former managing director in the derivatives group at J.P. Morgan & Co., to take the helm of the Office of Federal Housing Oversight, a once obsure agency set up a decade ago to oversee Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae."

comment: Fannie derivatives up from 72 billion in 1993 to 1.7 trillion today. Guess we all know the counterparty pretty much now. Brickell was also former head of the "International Swaps and Derivatives Association" whatever that is. He also ardently fought otc regulation. Hmmm, swaps, trillions of JPM, Fannie, and gold derivatives all under one roof... could the roof be collapsing? This guy might actually make Harvey Pitt seem unbiased. Maybe one of his early duties was to call up the COMEX buddies and jack gold margins? If gold falls it's win-win for Fannie and JPM.

Such a good summary of much of what we've talked about here over the years! Helping us get in synch with the thinking of those who make a business of riding volatile markets. Thank you.

"Evidently, the manipulator always accumulates an entourage of camp followers who may actually believe the fantasy and fail to realise that the essence of the manipulation lies not in HOLDING a price away from equilibrium but in PUSHING it away from equilibrium and ALLOWING IT TO SNAP BACK due to the workings of market forces of supply and demand. The clever manipulator brings them along for the ride and then abandons them to their own fate."

So many other good things today, but I've had to disconnect and reconnect several times, I'm losing track.

Invisible Hand: Those Indymedia posts are the closest thing we've had to an FOA parallel analysis, and from a more politically-pointed viewpoint, too. There was a paragraph in the middle that highlighted a lot of it for me -- I'll try to bring it in later. But I think I remember it being about the flows of funds (dollar/Euro) vs the accumulation of same as Reserves. Not sure if I'm confusing two of my curiosities, but I think either direction would be something I'd welcome your comment on. Back later...

Trojan Topaz (2/6/03; 01:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 96897)
Daniel.
Noticed you credited mois for a posting on Silver yesterday...not mine sire, maybe that other "T" poster who,I might add, is providing a wealth of varied information for our collective absorption and dissemination.
I speak of the good Sir Trojan.

Cheers...You and He/She !
*****************************************************

Topaz, you are a gentleman, indeed. Thank you for the correction.

Trojan:

Your direction to financialsense was very helpful, thanks again.

HOWEVER, I'm having a problem getting to the bottom of the frivolous use of silver in the production of throwaway cameras. While considering a slight imposition upon Gandalf the White, I decided that ANOTHER contest, directed by the master himself, would undoubtedly throw the ol' boy into a catatonic state if not the liquor cabinet. What an incredible job he did in the contest, "WE MUST HAVE RULES!" It was really fun. But how to determine just how much silver is being destroyed by this disgusting throwaway camera sector within an otherwise great industry?

THEREFORE, I must take responsibility for my particular problem. To solve this problem a CONTEST is now proposed to determine the amount of silver being used in the manufacturing process of throwaway cameras throughout the world. Unlike Gandalf the White's contest, we will make up the rules as we go along.

THE PRIZE: The winner or winners will each receive a throwaway camera or in their stead they may graciously choose to have the trash send to a worthy enemy.

THE QUESTION: How much silver is being wasted annually in the use of throwaway cameras?

Thank you

I know a 50% increase in margin requirements would affect my trading, so I suppose the increase will take some wind out of the sails of a bunch of the longs. And in doing so blunt the charge to higher prices. If it doesn't, then I wouldn't be surprised to see another 50% hike down the road. Just a guess.

Haven't heard much reaction to it so far, but I'll bet Bill Murphy will have some choice words to say about it later.

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Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial asset which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

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Are we scared yet?No. Are we having FUN yet? You bet. Even better if your are on the plus side from the ride down to $254. Better here than the stock market. Silver may have different fundamentals. IMO silver will come alive when fear sets in. Those who have missed the gold train will run to the silver platform to board the silver bullet. Only there will not be as many cars as the golden nugget train. Then it is only a matter of supply and demand. We all wanted some action and $50 to $100 swings would be all right with me. I wait for the lemmings to pick the pace up and the talk of gold to satuate my workplace.

A $20.00 spike to $390.00. I wonder what the shorts were thinking? :0)

Slingshot------------------------<>

Re slingshotYou bet it is much better here in the PM's
than in the Dow stocks. Even if the gold and
silver I have goes to zero I can still look
at it and hold it. It's kind of hard to do that
with stocks shoot they don't even send out a
nice looking stock certificates anymore to look
at. Ha So no worries here either. ;o)

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/ngs.html
Storage Highlights:

Working gas in storage was 1,521 Bcf as of Friday, January 31, 2003, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 208 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 811 Bcf less than last year at this time and 287 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,808 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 258 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 141 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 79 Bcf below the 5-year average of 510 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 56 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 50 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 11 Bcf. At 1,521 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.


Black Blade: Looks like we are on track to end the heating season well below 1 tcf. My updated calculations suggest that we could easily end up below 700 bcf before we start injection season (and 789 bcf in a best case scenario). And that is with normal temperatures and moderate fuel switching where possible. I still have to bring in the new data for another update to my calculations but it is obviously not good news for the US economy. Then add in rising production decline rates and lack of reserve replacement on as drilling interest wanes. It appears that we are facing another severe energy crisis that will cream the economy yet again. Forget about any "economic recovery" this year and next. Unemployment and corporate earnings are going to take a big hit due to rising costs and a lack of pricing power on already razor thin margins. God forbid we have a warmer than normal summer. It's gonna get ugly!

Now where have we seen this before? Oh.... I don't know..... Palladium maybe? Remember when Russia depleted their stockpiles of palladium and platinum as they attempted to extricate themselves from the 1998 Bond Default (yeah the one that brought down LTCM) by raising cash. The TOCOM changed the rules regarding sales of futures contracts and the COMEX raised margins then too. When they don't have the ability to deliver on short notice rather than say so and spark off a run on the price of the metal, they simply change the rules to drive out the little guy who can upset the applecart so to speak. This isn't all that unprecedented. It also happened with the silver futures market when the Hunt brothers were left holding the (silver) bag. There are different ways to "manage" the market. You just have to realize that if these managers were not robbing at the point of a pen they would probably be robbing at the point of a gun. They are a lot like politicians ;-). They have found a home in the futures market. The easiest way for the little guy to circumvent these criminals is to just buy the physical metal en masse and thereby put immense pressure on the real PM market.

- Black Blade

There are costs too ... in the manipulation gameMetallic costs, lots of metal.

To be sure derivatives... born with metal loans, swaps and forwards have been the big downward force in gold since June 1996. The COMEX was the preemptive selling vehicle. COMEX closes 300% lower than the PM FIX was the target.

Are they profiting on the way up? Perhaps a little, but they are bleeding gold all the way since the only real down force in today's market come from official selling. JPM and their friends over at CITI owns $48 Billion worth of the COMEX gold market according to the OCC, so they essentially ARE the COMEX.

Getting from the bottom to the place where non-central bank gold reenters the markets is still painful for the cartel. One can guess that an agreement exists at the G-10 to ramp gold along a discreet path agreed to by all with the dollar falling in a controlled devaluation and gold rising to the all-important equilibrium level of "No more central bank selling required".

What is that level? We'll know it when we see it.

BTW the Dec 4th linear path of the PM Fix is still intact, even with the numerous verticalities.

http://highlandenergy.com/agachart.htm
A glance at the chart dramatically shows the accelerating decline of NG storage with 9 weeks of heating season left. Note the trend and compare to the 2000-2001 season when the recession took hold. Even the "double dippers" should take notice. A bit of PM portfolio insurance is in order.

- Black Blade

I don't have any details, but a rumor is just out that President Bush and Sec. Colin Powell will address the nation from the White House tonight (4:30 EST) on Iraq. No other details and not even sure if this true. I can't find any official release or news source so take it at face value.

- Black Blade

Bush and Powell will address the nation from the Roosevelt Room in the White House. The Roosevelt Room is where "weighty" announcements are made from. It appears that ultimatum time is here. Bush will likely say that its time to "put up or shut up" for Iraq. This means that war could be immenent. The address will commence in 30 minutes.

- Black Blade

All the more reason to get that 'new' oil out of the ground in Iraq, pronto! I took advantage of the dip yesterday and got three more (half)bags of junk silver. The lumpier the mattress, the better the sleeping! Now, if I could just figure out a way to bring my supercub in from Tooele, so I could give it a hug twice a day.........hmmmmmm. Life is good. Cheers!
p.s. I get the feeling that if Bushy succeeds with oiling up the economy, that this could put quite the whammy on POG for a while....??

In canada on business report ctv they just rolled out a so called "strategist" who advised about buying gold saying "it's near the top" and also "it goes up very fast and comes down very fast as we have just seen." rofl lollll.I needed this,both comedy and confirmation all in one.On feb 8th the chinese will be back buying in earnest,japan and the muslim nations buying will increase.Japan facing april fools day when all deposits become uninsured in a bankrupt banking system.The world breathed a sigh of relief as powell gave his speech,they will be back buying as the bombs fly.Bush will attack anyway,they were telling the u.n,not asking.Wall st and the media roll out the same tired old routine,gold is bad,get back in the dow everything is fine again.I have never seen them as scared as we have since gold hit 390 overseas.Something it is bound to do.The media cannot misinform europe,asia and the rest'so they concentrate on our people more.They want us to sell,we wont.Knocking gold down to 370 isnt much of an acheivement as we have seen she can fly up 20 dollars overnight when the asians cheaply buy the physcial.Obviously,400 scares the hell out of them.Now lets see what happens at the end of feb when all these big boys demand physical on their futures(comex).Thank you mr cabal,i was truly worried the days of accumulating cheap physical we almost over.Hows the DOWn jones!!!!Gold will go up row no matter what these suckers say!

I might add that they also used "the old friendly, smiling, trustworthy face of a woman trick" when striking down gold. To "quote" Get Smart.

I've heard nothing about this. Where is this announcement?

Yes, there are costs - but it looks to me that a number of key bullion banks that supposedly have to return gold to the central banks will be allowed to settle in cash (or government bonds). This changes their balance sheets completely, since gold-linked debt becomes ordinary debt. Once you have sorted out the liabilities side of the balance sheet, you can buy lots of gold.

Given that their creditors are also voracious borrowers, all it takes is for them to purchase a few extra issues of treasuries and who will be any the wiser? Who will be able to peer inside the gold leases and say, hey gold is at $900 - JPM owes the American taxpayer $550 per oz. I therefore tend to believe JPM when it claims that it doesn't have any gold derivative problems. If you have powerful friends, I suspect that you don't have these kinds of problems.

I'm not claiming, however, that such banks are completely insulated from the credit mountain weighing on the US$, just that a gold derivative problem can be shunted elsewhere.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/That is the only place I could find any mention of the upcoming address. It is listed as "upcoming" at 2130 GMT, which translates as 4:30 p.m. EST, as BB said.

makcumka

Tooele eh? My little brother is an officer in the Reserves/Guard and is now guarding our chemical/biological WMD at the Army Depot there. I used to worked for Anaconda at the Carr Fork Project (copper mine) and lived in Tooele for a couple of years until Anaconda was bought out by ARCO. Nice area.

- Black Blade

In his brief speech just now. Towards the end he used the phrase "The Game's Over", meaning of course Iraq, but in the whole concept he could have also addressed the U.N. Security Council.

One step closer to WAR and not much patience left within the Washington hawks.

We may soon see what POG's war premium is all about ...cb2

You will have noticed, then, the amazing growth in the area! The city airport is partially plowed under;(still some holdouts, though!) I built my hanger at TVY in Erda about 14 years ago. The area is paradise for cub flying(100ft and below), and beats hell out of New Jersey/Philadelphia/Drexel where I escaped from in 1968. A much more self-sufficient area to weather out the coming storm......

Black Blade, fobjob, and anyone else who might have some ideas. I'm only 27, making under $30K deflating dollars a year, and since I work and have to rent in the general Seattle area I lack the capital to plow a large amount into gold or even property to weather the coming storm. With the meager amount I have been able to save, I have accumulated a little over 2 oz worth of gold in various coins. I'm still trying to get more, but I notice that many on here have a bugout or hunker down strategy for when the dung hits the fan. How much gold do you suggest for a lower on the economic ladder peon to accumulate and also, how would such a person handle not owning a home or property to live off of? Especially since debt is bad, the mortgage market is near collapse, and especially in WA state, housing values are grossly overpriced. So gold will really be a hot commodity out here. Any hints or suggestions are appreciated. Thanks!

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,77814,00.htmlSnip:

"Thursday, February 06, 2003
By Liza Porteus


WASHINGTON -- President Bush urged Congress on Thursday to help move hydrogen fuel cell cars from the laboratory to the showroom as soon as possible to boost American's economic and national security."

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

I have two thoughts when reading this story:

1. Bush recognizes Hubbert's Peak.
2. If memory serves me, fuel cells use alot of silver.

PA

This is better answered by better than me, but my personal guideline is 10-20 per cent of whatever I want to be worth (in today's dollars)after TSHTF. Then, there is that first Depression story about the bell hop who got one gold coin as a tip. He kept it, and later on, was able to buy the hotel with that one coin!

Aurelius was used for to describe an Emperor - Marcus Aurelius - Marcus the Golden.. so, I just used it for a handle that means "Golden Master"

I would say it depends on your financial situation. I started out buying a little here and there accumulating over time. I eventually ended up with a nice pile of Gold, Silver, and some Platinum. All I did was set aside a few dollars from each paycheck and bought every couple of weeks. Later on I started buying PMs when I was working for the PM miners. The mines typically give out Gold and Silver medallions as attendence/safety awards. I bought quite a bit that way too. That's not an option for most of course. Our host has a "small order desk" where you can accumulate a little every so often though. The question now is how much time before the economic meltdown. That question I can't answer with certainty, but the economy is in bad shape and looks to get much worse. I can't speak for everyone else here, but I started out small and I suspect most others did too. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!

Fuel cells use platinum in the electrode membrane portion of the unit. I wished they used silver, it would'nt be kicked around the way it is. When GWB talked about fuel cell tech in his State of the Union address platinum spiked $25 the next day.

Thanks for the clarification. I am not well studied in the engineering fields as I am a salesman by trade.

PA

SLINGSHOT, TRUTHCASTERHi. Read both your recent posts and like your philosophy. UNLIKE the stockmarket and the horse/dog track races, with the PM's (up or down) you can always walk away with something. On a seperate note, I had a dream...Gabby Cohen,
Krusty Kramer and a few other nameless lemming masters were standing in front of the Dean in that scene from "Animal House" getting lectured...."Fat, Drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life....Gabby was the one with the pencils stuck up her nose!

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APkKp1RTWVS5TLiBFNo snips. None needed. Just the same stuff telling us that despite the fact that education, healthcare, energy, food, insurance, taxes, dry goods, services, and you name it that there is no inflation!!!! You hear me? No inflation dammit!!!!!!

Hitler would be proud.

PA

eom

Hope I didn't break any posting rules with the expaltive.

PA

: )

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030204/wl_nm/iraq_kuwait_dc_8maybe we can have a contest to see who can get closest to the hour that the birds fly.

PA

Thanks to Black Blade and fobjob for the advice! Hopefully the crash will hold off until I am a little better situated for it. :) Later everyone!

Same for me. Was and still am in the military. Used to send home a portion of my pay to the Old Man. Last year he passed away. I was fortunate enough to get leave to see him for about a week before he passed away. During one of our conversations, Old Dude leans over and whispers in my ear, "make sure you go down to the cellar and look in the bottom of my large tool chest. There's a wooden box for you." I was like, "Thanks Dad". I really thought it was only a box. Something he had made as it was one of his hobbies, wood working. I went down there and almost ripped my back out when I first attempted to lift it. Inside? 10 Gold Maple Leafs, 6 oz of Platinum, almost 1000 oz of silver coins. Pop had hid this amongst his extensive inventory of tools because he feared would be robbers might use metal detectors. And here all this time I thought he had used the money to have a good time with Mom. Since then I have added a little at a time, 1/10, 1/2, .2354, whatever...the little you're able to accumulate, soon turns into 1oz, 5oz, and it adds up. Don't worry about the ups and downs of the market price. Buy what you can afford.

I wouldn't read too much into today's announcement of higher margins for Comex Gold. Virtually all of the exchanges use SPAN (short for Standard Portfolio ANalysis of risk) to compute margins. SPAN takes into consideration the absolute price levels, and the volatility in price. Since both of these have gone up in recent days, the news certainly comes as no surprise.

While higher margins do put the squeeze on players who are over-leveraged relative to thier capitalization, the higher volatility we have seen recently has probably already "done them in" :^) So the net effect on future price action at this juncture is probably pretty negligible.

Recent movements in Au and Ag couldn't have come at a worse time for this buy and holder, being short of time to follow the spectrum of comments on the web that I have grown accustomed. But this forum and a couple others have been enough to keep me abreast of the implications, which seem rather unusually bullish.
Even counting out the recent war talk, speeches and threats. We have gold and silver resting above support levels- silver above long-term $4.65 and gold above the short-to-mid-term $352 area. And the raised margin requirements on Comex for gold futures as Van Rip posted at 50%! Plus significant, "healthy" retracements of both metals: clears out weak-handed longs and permits funds and shorts to cover and close hedges. It signals further instability in derivatives and balance sheets and probably the entire financial system. Also, these prices will induce foreigners, new investors, industrial users and funds to enter and diversify into positions at a favorable price, made more attractive by Korean, Iraqi, and terrorist concerns.
There is a saying: "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me."- meaning: "Live and learn." So, yes, many more of the world's investors are a lot smarter than the mainstream media gives them credit for. And the rapidly growing flurry of simplified and laughably absurd and macabre financial and foreign affairs commentary and reporting can mean only one thing- that the financial and political status quo is not long for this world.

Assume for a moment that the paper gold market is failing down as I type this. What would the FED do? I would expect that they would likely buy contracts if the disparity between buy and sell orders became too severe to the downside (so much so as to imply that the world is abandoning the paper/dollar/gold market due to a lack of credibility). This is controlable. Temporarily. Should the world sell their paper/gold contracts in the face of the infinite capacity of the FED to feed paper dollars in exchnage for said contracts then I cannot help but think that such a dollar flow to those who would wish to get out of the paper/gold/dollar market will, in and of itself, create an additional inflationary pressure internationally.

Theoretical example: OK, assume that I am a trader in China and I have lost faith in the paper/dollar/gold market because it cannot deliver the physical gold metal. Luckily, I found a buyer (sucker) who is not aware of the inability of the paper/gold/dollar market to deliver the physical gold that I desire. I bought in at $370 and got out at $360. Not too bad since I can take the dollar proceeds to the physical market and get what I want (while my counterparty gets the shaft). So it goes. But wait! I find out from speaking to other traders that they too think that they have found a sucker to buy their contracts! I then realize that I am the sucker by not recognizing that it is the FED that bought my contract at $360 (with dollars that cost absolutely nothing to produce) and as a result is accelerating the downward spiral that is the dollar value implosion (read hyperinflation). At this point I will immediately exchange my worthless pieces of paper for as much gold as the next guy is willing to part with.

How far away from this example / scenario are we?

Remember that an illusion that involves a mirror only works as long as there is not another mirror (physical gold market in China?????).

Food for thought.

PAPER AVALANCHE

Based on everything we are seeing,things are probably as bad as they hoped they wouldnt be.Despite Bushs'statements gold acts like Bush just said no war.People are cashing in (mutual funds etc) like mad,the system is bleeding and they believe they can manipulate and lie their way out of this one.Totally laughable,their fear is palpable now.Thank you ctv for making me aware the media is in on it ;)As i picked up my cheap silver i said how many 10 oz bars and how many 50 oz bars do you have?She said (3)- 10oz bars and (2)- 50 oz bars left.How sad, because of our lying media they lose a fortune on nasdog bombs and down jones hot air and then get steered away from the only thing that can save them.I realize now by the time people wake up and rush to the bullion dealers to buy, the sign will say "sold out".Lower prices does not mean more gold and silver dough heads,it means less.This is called the "hangmans noose".Lower prices means no new mining,and the people expecting much higher prices refuse to let go.2 days ago the cabal began to freak out,knowing they will run out of physical soon anyway they tried desperately to scare people out of and from gold and silver.The problem is the only ones who watch these jack ass shows are the goldbugs,i love comedy.

Wonderful story and personal history. Yes, and to all that have posted of slow, small, accumulations....they do add up over time. Galerider, it must give you a wonderful feeling to think of how your father thought of you and your future as he accumulated, probably too, over the years. Thanks for sharing the memory.

http://www.msnbc.com/news/869630.asp?0cv=CA01WASHINGTON, Feb. 6 -- The State Department warned Americans abroad Thursday of the threat of new terrorist attacks using chemical or biological weapons. The worldwide alert came as U.S. security officials told NBC News that they were considering raising their assessment of the threat of terrorist attacks to orange, its second-highest level, citing intelligence indications of plans for a "major attack" as early as next week.

I stopped by a dealer in Vancouver today and they were out
of all silver bars. 10 oz, 50 oz, 100 oz and 1 Kilo bars all
gone. Big orders were coming in on the phone. Amazing

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2731539.stmMr Gresham,

You asked me to comment on how to URLd article is an FOA parallel analysis highlighting the flows of funds (dollar/Euro) vs the accumulation of same as Reserves.

First of all, let me be clear. Although I was born in Europe and hold the citizenship of a euroland country, I don't support the euro as a matter of principle. As a matter of principle I am opposed to anything coming from the European union (formerly the European Communities). I used to be an opponent of the euro until January 1999 when I "met" MK, A and FOA. On December 31, 1999 I still handed a pamphlet under the title "Stop Euro" to Wim D. on the sidewalk in front of the Belgian Central Bank. I was therefore very surprised to receive on this Forum earlier today a US of A nationalistic response to my post by a poster on this board. Why invoke governmental hegemony to have monetary supremacy with some ink on paper?

As to the Airbus-AirIndia deal:

The reason why AirBus has been preferred over Boeing is because of the US policy over Pakistan and because Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. in Bangalore is already repairing doors of Airbus aircraft (Die indische Regierung entschied sich f�r Flugzeuge des Typs Airbus, was durchaus in dem Zusammenhang mit der amerikanischen Pakistanpolitik stehen k�nnte. Die Pr�ferenz f�r Airbus ist aber auch dadurch zu erkl�ren, dass das in Bangalore ans�ssige Unternehmen Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. T�ren f�r Airbus-Flugzeuge herstellt und sich das Unternehmen weitere Kooperation mit dem europ�ischen Unternehmen erhofft. http://www.suedasien.net/news/2002/september/indian_airlines.htm)

As Pradeep put it on Dec 10, 2002 11:50 AM under Re: The Weird $2b PIA Deal Which has Raised a Billion Questions on the board at
http://www.satribune.com/thread.jsp?forum=3&thread=274
Zia,
You are wrong when you say that Boeing 777 is better than A340. A340 is the world's best aircraft in it's class. That's why India is going to acquire 43 Airbus aircrafts than the Boeing aircrafts. May be Pakistan also has to think about it and there should be an independent inquiry to know whether any kick backs were involved in this deal. Even if the kick back is 5% it is 100 million dollars which is 600 crore rs. With which you can revamp an entire city's water delivery system.
Pradeep

As the website of the Indian embassy in Paris puts it
Airbus wins $2bn Indian Airlines contract
Indian Airlines awarded a $2bn contract for 43 aircraft
to Airbus, theEuropean aerospace manufacturer. Airbus
beat US rival Boeing to win India's biggest order for commercial aircraft. After two years of negotiation,
India's national domestic airline agreed to replace its ageing fleet with Airbus A-319, A-320 and A-321 aircraft
in a bid to become more competitive against new domestic
carriers with younger fleets. Indian Airlines' management board approved the deal but it must still go before the
government's Public Investment Board and Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs.
Airbus Industrie has offered to buy back Indian Airlines' ageing fleet of 18Airbus A 300s and Boeing 737-200s. It
will actually pay Indian Airlines the value of the aircraft, but the aircraft will be disposed of by the nationalcarrier. The deal is part of the pricing strategy followed by Airbus to win IA contract. It has also offered finance for 80 per cent of the deal value through
EUROPEAN CREDIT. (emphasis mine)
(Abstracted from Financial Times & Economic Times)
http://www.ciionline.org/busserv/international/countries/2002/Reports/France1-5Apr02.pdf

Does anybody know what's European credit? That's the only reference I find tothe flows of funds (dollar/Euro). Not much, I agree, but I have to start somewhere.

What a symbol. The only reference to Airbuis which I found in tomorrow's edition of the French Newspapers Le Monde and Le Figaro was in the education supplement to Le Figaro. In an interview of Richard Descoingsof the Council of State and director of Sciences po (political sciences) in Paris in which he calls the institutions involved in project announced by Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schr�der on January 22 to establish a federation of European institutions for higher education "les Airbus universitaires"
http://www.lefigaro.fr/dos_04/20030206.FIG_D0713.html

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1421Latest GATA dispatch.

Comex changes the exchange rules to rescue
the gold shorts.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

http://www.channel4.com/news/home/z/stories/20030206/dossier.htmlDowning St Dossier Plagiarised.

I have been monitoring this story since 2:30 PM today

It could be a Turning Point on if there is a War.

I say could be. Here are the facts as I know it.

This story first broke on a Site I monitor called Democratic Underground.

This was at 2:30 PM EST. (7:30 PM in London)

The gist of it is that Britain's Intelligence Report just published on Monday February 3, 2003 and refered to by Colin Powell in front of the UN and the WORLD on Wednesday February 5, 2003 as an EXQUISITE Intelligence Report by the British.

Turns out to have been COPIED and PLAGIARISED from three seperate sources without their knowledge.

Most of the Information was 5 to 10 Years old.

The people on Democratic Underground started sending the Breaking News to alternate news sources such as DRUDGE.

Drudge picked up the article that I linked above.

Meanwhile back in Britain Channel 4 was airing this story.

Associated Press picked up on the story and it also ended up on Yahoo.

Meanwhile about 9:00 PM London time, Blair went on a National TV show hosted by a very tough interviewer
( like a Tim Russert) in front of a live audience who were quite hard on him.

It seemed to me that Blair almost acknowledged that he needed a 2ND UN resolution authorizing War to Ally with the U.S.

Curiously Bush comes out at 4:30 PM and just about makes a Declaration Of War.

The way I see it what happens now with this story depends how it gets played in Britain tomorrow.

I think it is a very serious matter as it relates to British CREDIBILTY. And by extension Powell praised the Report and Bush in essence just repeated parts of it.

Can the U.S. Go to WAR without Britain ?

I don't see how but then again I don't know. This certainly adds mystery to the story. I am waiting to see if this makes U.S. or Canadian Major Media tomorrow or maybe tonight on Nightline.

I have been in contact with a manuf of new superconductor
HTS wire and discussed their new patent win with them.
They use Ag in the first generation wire and learned that they
intend to use it in the next generation HTS wire.

"The preferred noble metal for second generation wire is silver.
Our patent covers the use of silver and any noble metal in intimate contact with the superconductor layer in second generation wires (as well as in any generation), no matter how you manufacture the wire. This patent is, therefore, a fundamental one."
--------
@Kagalaska- There is an application for Ag in fuel cells.
Thats what I have been doing research on. Its hard to get info
as companies are evasive about new designs.

Platinum is used widely now but there is a problem. Its OK to
use Pt in R&D but when fuel cells go into mass production
the cost is too high. Some scientists believe there is not
enough Pt available in any case. I will have more info to post
in a few days.

Go Silver!

http://www.msnbc.com/news/868116.asp?pne=msntvA chink in the infrastructure armor? Shift of key agency to new Department
of Homeland Security will leave big gaps The Grand Coulee Dam in Washington state, a major source of power in the Northwest, could be an attractive target for terrorists.
By Brock N. Meeks
MSNBC
WASHINGTON, Feb. 6 -- When the Department of Homeland Security's intelligence analysis division opens for business March 1 it will be critically understaffed, MSNBC.com has learned. This vital division will be "way behind the power curve in the intelligence game" and forced to make do with a patchwork of temporary workers on loan.....End snippit

Can you say: "Where is our military?"

GOLDENDOMEHi. Yes, he was a Depression child and taught me the value of things. I look upon what he left as secuirty for my family and a legacy to add to and pass on to future generations.

If gold comes out of this showing strength (as it is now)look out. . . It will take the gold trading industry by surprise. Throw it a curve.

1) Bull markets climb a wall of worry.

2) Japan could prove to be this bull market's bulwark. To a large extent it already has. And why not: Facing a banking system on the verge of default, a government hell-bent on undermining the value of the currency you are trying to save, and the ultra-bellicose nuclear threat from N.Korea (while your country remains under another's protectorate), wouldn't you seek safe haven in gold? Reality strikes.

3) The professionals traders might be faced with the frightening thought that this market is no longer in their control.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/2735031.stmJust an Update on my original post on the Topic, including UK's take on the issue.

Again how this plays depends on how the British public play it tomorrow and If/Or how Iraq Spins it to the World.

Could be interesting tomorrow.

My Opinion, I think it is disgraceful, misleading and it surely doesn't give me any more confidence in what the U.S. and Britain are claiming.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/html/comp/articleshow?artid=36695144I still don't have the financial details, but the French communist newspaper L'Humanit� reported that French Prime Mister Raffarin is on a two days visit to India where he will launch "The French Season", which will encompass some happenings in March several towns. Raffarin is being flanked with several business people when they'll arrive in Bangalore, the aircraft capital of India. (Raffarin en Inde les 6 et 7 f�vrier Le premier ministre fran�ais Jean-Pierre Raffarin fera une visite officielle les 6 et 7 f�vrier en Inde o� il lancera " la Saison de la France ", s�rie de manifestations �conomiques et culturelles pr�vues jusqu'en mars dans les grandes villes de ce pays. Raffarin sera accompagn� de plusieurs ministres et d'une importante d�l�gation d'hommes d'affaires lorsqu'il arrivera � Bangalore, capitale des industries a�ronautique et informatique de l'Inde.
http://www.humanite.presse.fr/journal/2003/2003-01/2003-01-07/2003-01-07-046.html )

The URLd article from the Times of India reports:
Airbus, Boeing pull out all stops
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 07, 2003
NEW DELHI: French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin said that Europe's Airbus consortium would soon clinch a $2.1 billion deal to sell 43 commercial jets to state-owned Indian Airlines. And, he hopes a quick approval from the Indian government for the Airbus jets, whose purchase has already been recommended by Indian Airlines' board.
"Indian Airlines has chosen to buy 43 Airbus planes. And of course I hope that this choice will soon be made official," Raffarin told reporters at an air show in Bangalore. Raffarin, who will hold talks with Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee on Friday in New Delhi, said Airbus had established a two-way industrial relationship with India. He said Airbus was also eyeing the fleet renewal programme of Air-India.
Boeing offers more sops: Also in the race for the IA deal, US-based aircraft maker Boeing says it's planning to shift its back-office operations, including accounting and salary payment services for the Southeast Asian region, to India. The operations would be conducted through a new IT arm that would be established in India. Boeing officials told The Times of India that senior officials from Boeing's IT division had visited India last month and are currently exploring the options of setting up the operation here by early 2004. "With the global aviation industry still in a downturn, we are looking at alternate low cost sites for our allied businesses. Given India's excellent technical and accounting brain, we are looking at shifting the back-office operations here," the officials added.
Business for HAL: Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) has bagged a $5 million export contract from Rolls-Royce. The business can grow to $10 million over the next five years. HAL Chairman NR Mohanty said they had already manufactured the first batch of ring forgings, which would be incorporated into Rolls-Royce civil aero engines under manufacture in the UK for world-wide operations, including the Trent 800, which is now on offer to Air India for the Boeing 777.
Pratt and Whitney (P&W), the US-based aircraft engine maker, is planning to triple jobs at its Bangalore-based engineering centre. The firm is working towards introducing small captive power generation sets in India. "We are expanding our engineering operation and intend to add more jobs at the centre. We currently have 50 people working there, and will hike it to 150 people over the next two years," Mahesh Patel, director of P&W's engineering centre said. "We will also be adding jobs at the Hyderabad centre, but we have not finalised the quantum."

Matt Drudge is reporting that a man got through Presidential Security and handed the President an 8 page 'Message from God" about Iraq. I sure hope the rest of us are secure.

Just listened to cramers wed. show archived on his site,he sounds like a gold bull'says he has been wrong about gold,and is looking at gold stocks and some silver stocks.He mentioned glamis,newmont,is the sky falling or what,is he trying to say he got in at the start of the gold bull.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PI thank all you that were concerned about SPIKE and SPOT at the recent PAPER Avalanch occurance ! The Chart at the above LINK shows that SPOT is recovering well and almost ready to start JUMPING AGAIN !
I shall keep you all informed !
<;-)

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/9/0/34346709.htmlShort Article on the excitement Gold is creating in UK.

Thats what I like about that Cramer fellow, he is as sharp as a new NO.2 pencil. Figured that gold was a good investment way before the average CNBC cheerleader. Wonder how long he stared at the year long gold chart before he arrived at such an outstanding observation? That boy is so far ahead of the curve it's almost as if he has been listening in on phone conversations by Gabby Abby!
You think he figured this out on his own or had help??

Geesshhh!

Thanks for the post Mabry, it was good for a 5 minute chuckle.

Best to you this evening,
Operative

With regard to Colin Powell's presentation, the satellite images of big moving trucks nearby suspect facilities the night before indicated they knew in advance. Now the French want a bigger inspection team and are willing to provide more "help." Like Putin's advisor Tatiyana said, we will be stabbed in the back. The way things are going I'm beginning to think lead will be as precious as gold.

Gandalf......Do I win anything for predicting a Comex "default" in last weeks contest? Maybe a bigger crystal ball? It's not quite a default but I did use quotation marks. I checked the TOCOM and saw Palladium was still trading several years after their rules changes. I guess one paper casino is as good as another if that's what you want.

On the Grand Coulee dam:

just the biggest of several on the Columbia River and has pretty good security as do all the dams.

But>>> the major transmission lines string over the Cascade range to the PNW. How in the heck do you guard each and every one of those. Just about as easy as you inspect every container that comes into Long Beach (I think 5% is the number they actually look at).

Homeland defense? Pipe dream. . . .

Buy and hold gold (sorry sector, it's a good close)

Pizz

Harms way appears just around the corner. I think counting on another 100 hour war may be underestimating the situation this time around. Remember them in your prayers in the days ahead.

@Galerider, hope/pray you ride this one out. Best to you.

Operative

Max Rabbitz (02/06/03; 20:56:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 96989)

Gandalf......Do I win anything for predicting a ....
Maybe a bigger crystal ball?
===
YES, Sir Max, You have won a "UPGRADE" for your Crystal Ball ! ZAP !!!! (IT should be much "clearer" NOW !)
What are you seeing for the NEAR future ?
<;-)

Just wondering if cramer becomes a raging gold bull and really starts to promote it as an investment would he be a worthy addition to the gold community.I know he is totally mainstream but he does have a huge audience and a following.Would you all accept him

Hi. Thanks. We be heading west. No political statements, justifications, whining. This is what I signed on for. Iguess the closest I'll get to a statement without causing any controversy on the forum and admin pulling the plug on me......I do this because I'm proud to live in a country where people can express what they want, can question economic and political policies, etc. Oh, and I like the fact that we can live in a country where we can buy gold!
Got me a little and I'm still looking for a Mexican 50 peso,MK! maybe when I get back.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A31739-2003Feb5.html
Congress Asked To Raise Ceiling

Snippit:

With the federal budget deficit projected to soar, Treasury Department officials said yesterday that they will have to increase the sale of government securities and warned they will soon run out of borrowing authority if Congress does not act quickly to raise the $6.4 trillion ceiling on the national debt.


Black Blade: Outta cash again already eh? Here we go again -- just print some up.

Kudlow,
"Are we going to stand by while he poisons our water, and bombs our buildings,like he did a year ago?"

"Come on Shelley, ......come on!!"

The transmutation from Osama Bin Laden to Saddam Hussein is just about complete.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APkIdMxYbQ2FsaWZv
Snippit:

San Francisco, Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Officials in San Jose, California, spent five years developing a $300 million plan for housing, community centers and parking improvements that is now threatened by the state's record $34.6 billion budget deficit.

In San Bernardino County, which stretches across Southern California terrain the size of New Jersey, the libraries expect a 60 percent cut in spending for new books, to $800,000 from $2 million, said county librarian Ed Kieczykowski.

In Sacramento, the state capital, local school superintendent James Sweeney looks back three years to when California was flush with cash as he waits to find out how much money his district will lose.

``We were talking about $10 billion state surpluses, buying computers, doing all kinds of things,'' said Sweeney. ``It's absolutely incredible that in this brief amount of time we've gone from a $10 billion surplus to an astounding shortfall.''

Saddled with a budget gap triple the next largest state deficit, California's governor and lawmakers are considering raising sales, income and cigarette taxes while slashing services and jobs. Those steps will make it harder for the state to recover from a recession that has pushed unemployment to a six-year high of 6.6 percent, according to economists and officials.

By law Governor Gray Davis and the state legislature are required to balance expenses and revenue through spending cuts and tax increases. Their actions are being watched by companies that rate the credit-worthiness of state bonds.


Black Blade: Yeah, like no one saw this coming. Instead of putting cash aside during the years of plenty they spent like drunken sailors on shore leave. Now the chickens come home to roost. There's a deepening recession and another energy crisis coming that will finish the job that the last one started. By raising taxes we can expect to see businesses pack up and leave or shutdown laying off thousands and causing others to reduce spending outta fear further reducing revenues. Somehow I don't see raising taxes as any help. "Reap what you sow" -- I know I used to kid about the "Ant and the Grasshopper", but the finale is playing out now. Winter has come and the Grasshoppers are finally worried, but way too late.

Buying and holding is the only way......to pinch the government pinchers.

My income is so low that my accountant thinks I'm growing leafy plants in my attic. I may have to sell a few shares in June or get a real job.

Guess I gotta make a few calls.

http://www.moneyfiles.org/dashboard.html Please accept my apologies if this has already been posted, but it is a good read.

Fom the website......
The Dashboard is a revolutionary new publication from Depression2.tv. Monitoring all the necessary guages of economic health, each issue gives commentary and analysis of the gauges, how they affect one another, and where the economy is likely headed as a result.

You can download the first edition, an interesting document which highlights the wisdom of investing in gold, with a focus on gold funds.

"gold derivative problem can be shunted elsewhere"YES! JPM does have a free ride and the gold in the treasury has been "Given" to them for safe stewardship. So JPMs Harrison could care less about covering. Poor thing...one almost feels sorry for the mope. If only he could tell!

Others won't skate so easily. Producers. Other central banks will just write off the loss differences between the new gold price and the original forward sales price. No effort to get it back. But there's a political cost too, Gordon Brown has toasty feet these days and if there is a debacle in Iraq, Tony "The Poodle" Blair will retire and be re[placed by...who? Anybody in ten-year old Hush Puppies and a gravy-stained tie.

No derivatives rocket, just a steady ramp higher to safety and no more selling. Occasionally producers will panic because nobdy told them to spread out their closures and the G-10 will have to sell more to keep the ramp steady UP towards $630 by year's end. It's really conspicuous.

More on that...down the line.

I put aside money from my paycheck. I also have yard sales/swapmeets to make a few dollars. I pick up change off the ground and place it in the change can. Like trading copperwashed pennies for 1/10 oz gold. Yes, you can even pick up aluminum cans. Depends on how grubby you want to get. Your at the right place. Miles ahead of the pack. Each new coin is a battle won.
I have said often, one ounce at a time. It should be one gold coin at a time.

Hang Tough.
Slingshot----------------------<>

Kudlow,
"Are we going to stand by while he poisons our water, and bombs our buildings,like he did a year ago?"

Timbervision - I heard that too, and I was furious that he said it. You're right, they're trying to morph Bin Laden into Saddam Hussein in their desperate bid to have this war. I pray that the people who watch this stuff can see through it and reject this kind of inflammatory rhetoric. I pray that there is no war.

The desperation is really showing through in these pundits like Kudlow, Cramer, Hannity, and O'Reilly. I think that they feel that if they can't sell the war now that they'll never be able to. They see public and world opinion shifting against them and they have to put out a full-court-press to try to ram this war down our throats. The evidence that Powell put out yesterday was completely lame. I hope they fail.

Msg#96961I just had to laugh thinking if she played the part of Belushi playing ACNE.

Slingshot------------<>

yes the ants are content sleeping well and reflecting of a job well done last spring, early summer, and even on the nice fall harvest>

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Looks like another down day for Asian equities markets. Could get "entertaining".

- Black Blade

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38331-2003Feb6.htmlSARAVENA, Colombia -- The arrival of U.S. Special Forces trainers in this battered town last month signaled the beginning of a change that gives the United States more direct military involvement in Colombia's long civil war and could lead the country's two leftist guerrilla armies to broaden attacks against U.S. targets.
____________
Advisors, remote jungle, guerilla warfare-this is starting to
sound like another Vietnam.

http://www.iht.com/articles/84633.html Hedge fund liquidated after steep fall
Katherine Burton and Yukiko Takai Bloomberg News Monday, January 27, 2003
NEW YORK Eifuku Investment Management Ltd. has liquidated its $200 million Tokyo-based hedge fund after it dropped by 98 percent over seven days.
.
Eifuku Master Fund lost money on stock trades between Jan. 6 and Jan. 15, said John Koonmen, a former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. trader who founded the fund in 1999, in a 14-paragraph letter to investors.
.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2735251.stm
Japan's desperate market move
SNIPS:
Desperate to prop up the Japanese stock market, the country's economy minister has called on his cabinet colleagues, including the Prime Minister, to start buying shares. Heizo Takenaka said he would invest in tracker funds and "will definitely make money". "I want us to take the lead," he said. ...
"The time to buy is now," claimed Mr Fukuda.
"I may have to buy something, but I want everyone to buy," he added.

You know the reason why this country is so strongly divided between pro-war and ant-war sentiment? Because both sides are right. Yes...Saddam Hussein is a megalomaniac who needs to be taken out because he hides all kinds of hideous weapons and will gladly share them with any would-be terrorist who would like to hit the U.S. And, yes...it IS about oil, not the owning but the control of oil. The control of oil is essential to keeping the dollar's world hegemony as long as possible.

The dollar faction is fighting the end-game and will burn down this economy before they let go of dollar hegemony.

How long did Bush say this War on Terrorism would last? Oh, yeah...he didn't say. There was some fuzzy hint about 20 years. Now where did I hear that figure before? Oh, yeah....a 20 year bull market in gold.

Take Black Blade's advice. Stock non-perishable food, a back-up stash of cash for emergency needs, and all the gold you can. I would also add, stay close to family or other folks you can trust.
Simply

A Short History Lesson
In light of the increase in margin requirements for Gold futures trading I thought a little review of some history may be in order. Just replace "Gold" for "Palladium" and you may have an idea of how the commodities exchanges can "rig" the game. The following is a repost from my 8/27/2000 view of crooked managers at the exchanges. Thanks to a former poster "Netking" for finding this.


Death of a Rigged Metals Market (usagold.com msg#: 35599)

The Palladium markets have been under some very strange manipulations over the last several weeks. There is a very good chance that Palladium will be delisted or very severely restricted from futures trading in the near future. Much of this is a result of greedy unscrupulous and probable criminal actions of those that manage and oversee the commodities exchanges in Tokyo at the Tokyo Commodities Exchange (TOCOM) and the New York Metals Exchange (NYMEX). The troubles began when more contracts for Palladium metal were sold than actual deliverable physical metal in the possession of certain counter-parties.

This story has its beginnings in the fall of the Soviet Union. First Russia is the source for about 70% of the worlds Palladium The Palladium is a by-product from nickel mining operations at Norilsk Nickel. Another simple fact is that the Russians have been in a very serious hard currency crunch since the collapse of the Soviet Empire. The Russians took out loans and issued worthless bonds for a few years as they struggled to dig their way out of over 70 years of government mismanagement under communist rule. The Russian Bond default almost brought world markets under severe pressure and many firms went under. However, these people in Russia had no experience with a free-market and still operated their economy under corrupt Soviet-style management practices, they over-taxed businesses, they stole foreign investment monies, and they even got into bed with Russian Organized Crime. Anything of value was looted by criminals and corrupted individuals, many of whom themselves are Russian Politicians or former Politburo members. In the resulting hard currency crunch as the worthless Russian bonds came due and were eventually defaulted on, there was a rush to shake down legitimate businesses through extortion and excessive taxation, to sell off former state-owned enterprises to corrupt cronies of Russian politicians for a pittance, and to loot hard assets including government stockpiles precious metals. The simple fact is that the PGM stockpiles of many years worth of mining are depleted. Any PGMs that are to be delivered will have to come from current mining production at Norilsk Nickel. A major problem at Norilsk Nickel as with most any enterprise in Russia is 1) that the operations are grossly inefficient and are in dire need of funds to upgrade operations to at least 20th century standards, and 2) the Russian workers don't get paid on a regular basis which is not only bad for morale, but does not provide a lot of incentive for productivity. Unfortunately many businesses still try to run on the old Soviet model which simply does not work. In the old Soviet Union, workers were paid a set rate whether or not they were productive. In the real world, this does not provide an incentive to produce goods and services. No matter how you slice it, there is no sufficient supply of Russian Palladium coming to market.

The Russians tried to disguise this inefficiency by employing delaying tactics while in negotiations with the Japanese in talks earlier this year. Eventually the talks resulted in much higher prices for the Palladium contracts, yet supply has not reached the market in any meaningful quantity and is sporadic at best. Realizing the severity of the problem, many commodities investors in Japan bought heavily into the Palladium futures contracts. Like most any greedy and corrupt organization, the TOCOM generously wrote contracts for what was undeliverable metal without checking whether or not this commodity was even in existence. But greed is a powerful emotion and the TOCOM became a place of wild dealing and speculation. They thought that they could control the situation with numerous press releases and by setting "analysts" loose with erroneous information in an effort to deceive the market. Eventually this became a delaying tactic of choice as they searched for a way out of the developing short squeeze. Many who had actually believed the erroneous reports went short the Palladium market. The market was totally out of control. More and more press releases were set loose on the investment community that there were deliveries of Palladium on the way, and that they would arrive "any day" now. The situation was getting more critical almost on an hourly basis as it was beginning to become apparent that the metal was not coming to market. Soon many traders began to go long Palladium futures. The short squeeze was on! The TOCOM manipulators got caught with their pants down around their ankles and even with the risk of "losing face", they did the most dishonorable thing that they could. They defaulted on the Palladium contracts! In effect, they shut down the Palladium market. They forced the longs to settle at market in order to help bail out the shorts. The free-market in Palladium on the TOCOM was killed.

Now we move to New York were the last bastion of the "so-called" free-market in commodities is located in the form of the New York Metals Exchange (NYMEX). Many commodities investors thought that at least in the USA there wouldn't be such gross manipulation of the Palladium market. They were to be proven wrong. A short review of the Hunt Brothers and the Silver squeeze and the more recent settlement at market on the contracts during the developing short squeeze when the Washington Agreement was announced should have been a lesson learned. The corrupt managers of manipulative commodities exchanges such as the NYMEX change rules at will in order to manipulate the markets and to ultimately steal from honest believing investors. The latest manipulation in Palladium brings us to New York. In early August after the TOCOM had defaulted on Palladium futures contracts, the NYMEX realized that they too had a developing short squeeze in the works. What to do? Why not engineer a profit making scheme and manipulate the Palladium market at the same time? Hell, the CFTC is a toothless tiger, so why not? They didn't investigate curious happenings in other metals markets, so the signal was given that the CFTC would not interfere.

In early August, the NYMEX imposed substantial margins on Palladium futures contracts. The result was to drive prices lower in a grossly obvious manipulation of the Palladium market. This caused many investors to quickly exit the market in order to lock in their profits. On August 14, the September Palladium contract fell as much as $60 per ounce. Now all exchanges require margin in order to cover the risk of losses, but in the Palladium market, this went beyond reality. Margins were raised six times in short order. On August 15th it was raised to $60,000 per contract, on August 16th it was raised to $80,000 per contract, and on August 17th it was raised yet again to $100,000 per contract! Of course the 100 ounce contract was only worth $74,000 per contract at that time. The manipulation scheme by the NYMEX criminals was on! The washout of certain investors was set with bogus excuses such as to "ensure an orderly market" - read "manipulated market". By the close of business on August 18th, the margin on contract had risen over the course of 10 days to $100,000 from $5,000 for clearing house members, to $110,000 from $5,000 for members, and to $135,000 from $6,750 for customers. Many had wondered how can a margin requirement be set for as much as 150% of the total contract value? This was unprecedented! They weren't finished! They even had the gall to announce that margins would be raised further to $200,000 as if to tempt fate with the emasculated CFTC, however, this was eventually rescinded prior to implementation. I guess like all cockroaches, when the lights are turned on they scatter to the dark recesses to get out of under public scrutiny.

What was the NYMEX trying to do? The answer is obvious - manipulation, pure and simple! Open interest on outstanding contracts (September) had fallen from 852 to 783 contracts when the market opened after the announcement. Open interest in December futures increased to 1,234 contracts from 900 contracts, indicating that over 300 rollovers had taken place. Many angry market participants claim that this was the intention of the NYMEX manipulators. The NYMEX simply wanted to force as many players out of the market as possible before a truly powerful (and profitable) short squeeze began, or better yet, manipulate the price lower to bail out the shorts just like in Tokyo. Dishonor knows no nationality or culture it seems - crooks hang out in the same circles. The greed factor was at work in New York just as it was in Tokyo. There was not enough metal on hand and yet these NYMEX crooks sold more contracts for metal than existed. In fact, the entire warehouse stocks are only 150 contracts! The NYMEX-approved warehouses are located in New York and Wilmington, Del.

From my point of view, I think that this could be a contract killing situation for most Palladium market participants. However, those who hang on and take delivery may be in an excellent situation. The Russians cannot and will not deliver the metal in sufficient quantity as I have stated for months now. The actual price for the physical metal could far surpass the paper contract price. If only a few participants take delivery, the warehouses are bare. The Platinum metal supply situation is better, yet there are some supply problems here as well. As the industrial users of Palladium shift to Platinum and Rhodium, these prices are likely to come under increased pressure as well. Fortunately Platinum and Rhodium are a bit more available from sources outside of Russia such as South Africa, US, and Canada. The Palladium futures market was killed! There is now speculation that the Palladium market may simply be delisted. Can the same thing happen in other commodities? Obviously! It appears that manipulation in the Gold and Silver markets is an open secret. The CFTC has no compelling interest in performing their stated function of ensuring a free and fair commodities market. The moral of the story? Take possession of physical metal, invest in unhedged and profitable miners who have little or no debt, stay out of the rigged options and futures markets, and wait as the inevitable price increases occur. The death of the paper metals market is certain. The game is rigged.

- Black Blade

If I wanted to keep aquiring silver at low prices I would try to assure it didn't rise with the POG. For example "Silver must be even MORE a relic than gold" Weak hands let go!.....I think one reason POS stays low is there are no Hung Fats etc. This is so because silver is not currently seen as a political/currency weapon. However, when silver runs out it will be an economic and therefore a political weapon......I hope I am not opening my mouth and removing all doubt here. Just my 1.5� worth. Thanks for listening.