USAGOLD Discussion - March 2003

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

ElGordo
(03/01/2003; 00:01:36 MDT - Msg ID: 98665)
Rich -> silver production down 12% in Mexico
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030228/minerals_mexico_silver_2.htmlMEXICO CITY, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Silver output in Mexico, the
world's largest producer, fell to 233,612 kilograms in December,
down 12.2 percent versus the same month a year earlier, the
National Statistics Institute (INEGI) said.
For full-year 2002, Mexico produced 2,852,138 kilograms of
silver.
A breakdown of metals production follows:
Product Dec 2002 Pct Chge
vs yr ago
Gold 1,620 kgs -43.7
Silver 233,612 kgs -12.2
Lead 10,577 tonnes -23.4
Copper 25,583 tonnes -11.9
Zinc 32,265 tonnes -11.9
Note: Precious metals in kilograms and base metals in
tonnes.

Gandalf the White
(03/01/2003; 00:44:14 MDT - Msg ID: 98666)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlContest update!
Join the fun and you could win the Gold and/or Silver !!

Just go to the above LINK and follow "The Yellow Brick Road"!!

There alrady have been fifteen brave "EARLY BIRDS" that Prognosticated the POG Settlement of 3/13/03, AND that have also submitted the same number of diverse concept entries in the ESSAY "confession" contest.

2/28/03 Apr 03 COMEX Contract
HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1
Yesterday�s Open Interest 107869

At this time 2/28/03, (until at least Monday), Sir Kevin$ is the "King of the Hill" !!!

COME ON IN all you Lurkers, and walk away with a CLINK in your pocket !
<;-)
Sundeck
(03/01/2003; 02:14:39 MDT - Msg ID: 98667)
Barrick Gold seeks to dismiss Blanchard case
http://www.forbes.com/markets/commodities/newswire/2003/02/28/rtr894099.htmlSnip:

"
TORONTO, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. (nyse: ABX - news - people), target of an anti-trust lawsuit alleging that it manipulated gold prices, said on Friday it filed a motion to dismiss the case.

"It's completely without merit and that's why we have moved today in response to it and have filed motions to dismiss the whole case," Barrick spokesman Vince Borg told Reuters.

..."

Sundeck: Well they would wouldn't they...let's wait for the next chapter to see what happens.
misetich
(03/01/2003; 06:34:26 MDT - Msg ID: 98670)
No Relief in Sight - By PAUL KRUGMAN
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/28/opinion/28KRUG.htmlSnip:

The conventional wisdom among business forecasters now calls for growth of a bit more than 3 percent over the next year. Growth at that pace is barely enough to keep up with rising productivity and an expanding labor force, not enough to make a serious dent in unemployment. And a growing number of forecasters think the conventional wisdom is overoptimistic, that the pain is about to get even worse.

One reason is the surge in oil prices, which acts like a big tax increase, siphoning off spending that might otherwise have helped create jobs.
..........
Then there's the effect of the worst fiscal crisis in the 50 states since World War II. Iris Lav of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities suggests that tax increases and spending cuts at the state level could drain $100 billion from the national economy over the next year.
.........
Finally, the increasingly grim mood of consumers can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If disheartened families cut their spending, the job picture will worsen even further.
.........
Why is the administration so uninterested in helping the economy? Here's my theory: The depressed state of the economy provides a convenient if bogus rationale for the huge, extremely irresponsible long-run tax cuts that, after Iraq, constitute this administration's principal obsession.
**********
Misetich

Lets keep on eye on the real key - consumer spending - tic..toc...tic..toc..

Got gold?

Dollar Bill
(03/01/2003; 08:06:18 MDT - Msg ID: 98672)
A little edjacatin
Dr. Hans Sennholz
Grove City, PA - In their election oratory politicians usually stress their love of fiscal discipline and balanced budgets. But as soon as they are elected they tend to discover a great number of exceptions that require more funding.
President Bush clearly made the election pledge to avoid budget deficits, but, ever since September 11, 2001, his budget proposals built on exceptions project a deficit of more than $300 billion for each of the next few years. Yet, he also argues for prompt tax reduction, which signals a brand-new course of action in the annals of fiscal policy.

The prospect of soaring deficits and simultaneous tax reductions alarms a few economists. On this new fiscal road they foresee deficits of $500 billion or even $600 billion annually, which in time may cast doubt on the credibility of the federal government as debtor. Every few months the Congressional debt ceiling needs to be lifted by a few hundred billion dollars. Congress last raised it by $450 billion to $6.4 trillion on June 30, 2002; it needs to be lifted right now as the official Treasury debt again has reached the ceiling. At the present rate of spending it will need to be lifted in June or July of this year and, in case of war with Iraq, even earlier. The federal deficits are compounded by the budget shortfalls of most state governments, estimated at some $105 billion in 1992-1993. State governments are required legally to balance their budgets, which forces them either to raise taxes or cut expenditures. Undoubtedly, most prefer to boost their fees and exactions; the proposed federal tax reduction, if and when it finally passes the U.S. Congress, may even compound their problems as many state systems are based on the federal tax structure.

Both deficits, the federal and the state, constitute a heavy burden on the capital market which keeps no idle savings amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars. They force the Federal Reserve System to come to the rescue; it can print any amount of money and create any volume of credit. The Fed is the financier of last resort, the ultimate source of funds that enables the federal government to finance any conceivable expenditure and cover any possible deficit. Without the Fed, fiscal deficits of such magnitude would soon depress the American economy and cause serious political repercussions.

Its ability to create dollars that enjoy world-wide acceptability enables it to distribute the burden of U.S. Government deficits to countless millions of dollar holders all over the globe. They pay for the deficits through depreciation of the dollars in their pockets. Japanese and Chinese, Arabs and Hindus, French and Germans, and all others with dollar savings join Americans in bearing the burden of federal deficits.

This ability to place the economic cost of government spending on millions of trusting victims rests on the extraordinary position of the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. The dollar acquired this distinction by international agreement reached at Bretton Woods in New Hampshire in 1944 which committed the United States to provide an anchor for world prices by pegging the dollar at $35 per ounce of gold and envisioned a world economy linked by fixed dollar exchange rates.

When the United States suffered chronic gold losses and finally faced inability to make payments in gold, President Nixon severed the dollar's gold link in August 1971, devalued the dollar against major foreign currencies in December 1971, and finally floated it in March 1973. The world has been on a floating dollar standard ever since. It is a fiat standard, unbacked and irredeemable, which can be inflated and depreciated at will. Managed by the Federal Reserve System, it is a useful standard in the financial service of the U.S. Government.

Other countries are narrowly limited in their ability to inflate and create credit; if they indulge in expansion rates greater than those of their neighbors and trade partners, they would soon face payment difficulties as imports increase and exports decline. They would have to reduce the expansion rates and fall in line with their neighbors and partners. The Federal Reserve System as the manager of the world dollar standard has no such narrow limits. It can inflate and create credit as long as its expansion does not exceed the world-wide demand for its currency. It may generate trade deficits year after year and aggravate its maladjustments as long as foreign banks and investors hoard the dollars or invest them in American obligations. It is bound to cause world-wide financial upheavals, however, when it depreciates the dollar at excessive rates and thereby inflicts painful losses on those foreign investors.

The floating system based on the U.S. dollar has been a precarious structure ever since its inception. During the 1970s the country suffered the worst inflation in decades. By the end of the decade the inflation rate stood at 13 percent, the Federal Reserve discount rate at 12 percent, and the prime lending rate at 15.75 percent, the highest of the century. The dollar had fallen notably in relation to the currencies of other trading countries and especially to gold.
The 1980s saw some economic recovery but also brought new difficulties and more maladjustments. They led to an explosion of personal, business, and government debt which cast a shadow on the future of the financial structure. Federal government debt soared from approximately $950 billion to nearly $3 trillion. A growing share of this debt was acquired by foreign banks and investors who used the widening imbalance of American imports over exports to invest their earnings in the United States.

The 1990s, finally, seemed to defy all rules of economic behavior. Easy money and credit spurred the most explosive stock market boom in U.S. history, creating enormous speculative wealth and spawning new companies. With financial markets booming, the federal government even reported a budget surplus, borrowing from Social Security trust accounts. The balance-of-payment deficit became a major concern as imports soared and exports stagnated, which further raised the mountain of debt.

Toward the end of the decade, in 1998, the floating dollar standard suffered a number of financial shocks that began in Asia and eventually struck fragile economies around the world. American equity markets continued to surge until 2000 when an economic slowdown became evident also in the United States. In 2001, finally, the American economy slipped into recession for the first time in ten years. The Federal Reserve immediately cut interest rates, a record eleven times in one year; the U.S. Congress passed a large multi-year tax cut, and the U.S. Treasury even sent out tax rebates to boost consumer spending. Yet, the markets continued to plunge following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001.

According to various market analyses, foreign investors now own some $7 trillion of U.S. assets, 13 percent of American corporate stock, 35 percent of U.S. Treasury obligations, 23 percent of corporate bonds, and 14 percent of ownership in American companies. They obviously do not take kindly to Federal Reserve policies that depreciate the dollar and depress its exchange rate. Last year alone, European investors in the S&P 500 lost 38 percent on their property compared to just 24 percent suffered by U.S. investors because of the fall of the dollar versus the euro. Suffering such losses, their interest in American investments is bound to decline. They may even liquidate and withdraw their holdings, which could lead to a crushing stampede to the exits.

We now face a situation that resembles the late 1970s when the world began to abandon the dollar and liquidate American investments. It took two years of Federal Reserve inactivity and 20 percent interest rates to restore foreign confidence and lure foreigner investors and creditors back. Today, the Fed is doing the opposite; it is making every effort to stimulate the economy by flooding the money market while the U.S. Treasury is accelerating its deficit spending. Both point towards monetary upheavals and deep global recession straight ahead, and both cast a shadow on the future of the floating dollar standard.




a nation of one
(03/01/2003; 08:45:57 MDT - Msg ID: 98673)
a little more education

Reply to Dollar Bill.

Dr. Hans Sennholz says: "The 1990s, finally, seemed to defy all rules of economic behavior. Easy money and credit spurred the most explosive stock market boom in U.S. history, creating enormous speculative wealth and spawning new companies. With financial markets booming, the federal government even reported a budget surplus, borrowing from Social Security trust accounts. The balance-of-payment deficit became a major concern as imports soared and exports stagnated, which further raised the mountain of debt."

--Of all the statements that he makes, the first sentence of this quote is one which most clearly reveals the state of his knowledge. By saying that the 1990s seemed to defy the rules of economics, he discloses to us his failure to comprehend the way in which the rules of economics apply to the 1990s. As an example of how absurd his statement is, imagine a symphony conductor saying, "The cellos simply were not acting as cellos. What they were doing defied the rules of cello playing." Now, maybe you don't know all the rules of cello playing, but competent cello players do, and so does every competent symphony conductor. All of the playing characteristics of cellos have been known for a long time. Of course, if you pick up a cello and then toss it into a dumpster, and it makes funny sound as it gets knocked around in there, and if you call that cello playing, then you can say that all the rules of cello playing were not previously known. But if you're talking about what's useful in an orchestra, that's not music. The same applies to economics, or to anything. Remove economics from the field of its legitimate meaning, and then you can say anything. But if you want to discuss real economics, where money serves valid functions, then the known rules will apply. In saying that the 1990s seemed to him not to fit within the rules of economics, Dr. Sennholz is telling us that either not all the rules of economics are known, perhaps just by him (but perhaps also by others), or that what the 1990s consisted of was not economics. Neither implication is beneficial or correct.
White Rose
(03/01/2003; 09:14:00 MDT - Msg ID: 98674)
A guess when the Iraq war starts
About 5:00 pm March 2, 2003. Around midnight Iraq time, and too late to be mentioned in church or organize any protests for the weekend.
a nation of one
(03/01/2003; 09:38:00 MDT - Msg ID: 98675)
ethereal notes

At some point human adults need to recognize that to base a currency on sheer confidence is to create specific types of vulnerability. They must also become aware that to 'invest' their money in company stocks, simply because someone says it is a good thing, is ignorant stupidity. Stocks are still too high. There can be no question of this. There are only two reasons to buy stocks. One, to get dividends. Or, two, to get capital gains. Dividends are paid from earnings, if there are any, and if the payments are legitimate, not bookkeeping tricks. Gains result from growth, which only happens under certain very specific conditions, about which there is no mystery. The period of general growth in company stocks is over. The beginning of such growth has -in recent history- depended on easy money, created by low interest rates, making borrowing less difficult. Interest rates are low again now, and still no company in its right mind dares to borrow. This is the case for numerous reasons. Private payments on private debt is curtailing personal expenditures, not just a little, but a lot. The public's confidence has been abused and is therefore lost. Hopefully, it will stay lost. It is only by knowledge, not by confidence, that investments should be made. Companies know these facts and realize that profit potentials are reduced because of them. The public has been severely burned, and some of it continues to be. No halfway wise adult male or female now has any trust whatever in the stock markets. Only gullible people with their eyes closed and their morales pumped up really think they ought to. And many are those who prey on them and stuff their pockets with their money. One wonders -if murder were legal- how many brokers would not be strangled or shot. The number of human individuals is growing, who see what is happening: the ruse, the guile, the predatory nature of our nation's present stock and money dealings, and the unsound nature of its own 'money managing'. The only thing that keeps it going is poor education in public schools, absence of any pertinent information by mongers of the news, and condemnable omissions of the truth by 'official' mouths. Gold has value. That does matter. Gold has never collapsed. Gold cannot be printed. Dealers in gold are not known for cheating people when selling it to them, or when buying it from them. The world's most practiced financial wizards -when they accumulate for value- accumulate gold, not merely marked on paper, but the real, precious stuff. Ladies wear it to display their own wealth. And so do men. Nobody would ever make a necklace out of dollars and then wear it like gold. Even nations rely on its character. We should do no less.
a nation of one
(03/01/2003; 10:05:38 MDT - Msg ID: 98676)
like trees thirsty for a long rain

One thing is sure. It may occur after an extended wait. And in the meantime, the storm may gather. But it is a pretty safe bet that when the Big Boys' financial interests require that Joe Public suddenly feel stabbed by a hunger for noble gold, his greedy appetite will know no bounds. The coin that you are keeping then will be very hot to hold.
ElGordo
(03/01/2003; 10:19:05 MDT - Msg ID: 98677)
Turkey says OK
ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey's parliament on Saturday approved a long-awaited motion allowing deployment of thousands of U.S. troops here for a possible invasion of Iraq, a deputy told Reuters.

The resolution, which also clears the way for dispatching Turkish troops to Iraq in the case of war, was passed after hours of debate on an issue which has generated widespread opposition in Turkey.

Parliament's decision, which is crucial to U.S. military planners, paves the way for stationing 62,000 U.S. soldiers in Turkey to establish a "northern front" which experts say would shorten any war.

Fearing the economic and political impact of any conflict on its borders, Ankara had been reluctant to agree to any role in the war. A rejection of the U.S. request would however have deprived it of U.S. financial support and any say in the future of northern Iraq, where Turkey has key interests.

misetich
(03/01/2003; 11:14:40 MDT - Msg ID: 98678)
Turkish Speaker Nullifies U.S. Troop Vote
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20030301_1150.htmlSnip:

ANKARA, Turkey March 1 �
Turkey's parliament speaker nullified the legisature's vote Saturday to allow deployment of 62,000 U.S. combat troops to open a northern front against Iraq, saying a majority of those in the chamber had not voted in favor.

The vote was 264-250 with 19 abstentions.

Speaker Bulent Arinc said nullified the vote after it was challenged by the opposition.

The Turkish constitution demands a majority of those present must vote in favor for a bill to pass.

The vote Saturday was four short of a simple majority.

Arinc closed parliament after the vote until Tuesday.

The bill's rejection is likely to seriously increase tensions with the United States which had been expecting a positive vote.
...........
Some 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) away from parliament, some 50,000 Turks held a rally to protest the war.

"No to War," and "We don't want to be America's soldiers'," they shouted as some 4,000 police stood guard. Some carried banners that read: "The people will stop this war," and "Budget for education not war."



*********
Misetich

Back to the drawing board -

Got gold?
misetich
(03/01/2003; 11:38:26 MDT - Msg ID: 98679)
Saudi Warns of U.S. Casualties in 'Messy' Iraq War
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/reuters20030301_141.htmlSnip:

� DUBAI (Reuters) - Key U.S. ally Saudi Arabia has warned a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq would plunge the Gulf region into chaos and do nothing but harm to all parties involved, including the United States.

Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, in remarks to CNN broadcast on Saturday, also questioned U.S. intentions to help introduce democracy in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East.

"We would hate to see American soldiers paying the price for an occupation that will do nothing but bring terrible consequences to everybody," Prince Saud said.

"An occupation of Iraq is not simple. How (are) 250,000 troops going to maintain order in a country like that? Especially if war leads to the instability we think it will lead to, if it leads to chaos we think it will lead to. If the social order breaks down, who is going to be fighting who? It is going to be a mess we think," he added.

............

Asked about the U.S. aim, Prince Saud said: "If you get chaos in Iraq, how will democracy flower in Iraq? If you achieve victory and there is somebody occupying Baghdad...just imagine what the reaction could be in the Arab and Muslim world to that fact alone."

Prince Saud also challenged Bush's assertion that the removal of Saddam from power could create an opportunity for peace in the Middle East, saying Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was an obstacle to peace and not the Iraqi leader.

"I think (that) removal of Mr. Sharon will be more apt to bring a solution to the question of the Palestinians than the removal of Saddam Hussein. He (Sharon) is the obstacle to peace," Prince Saud said.
********
Misetich

The risks of an ill-conceived invasion has serious consequences worldwide.

Why now? Why this forced timetable? Lets look in the Golden Crystal ball - and be ready to ride the Gold Bull Express!

Got gold?


misetich
(03/01/2003; 12:00:41 MDT - Msg ID: 98680)
Job Cuts Heavy
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1046442000000&sn=1&banner=mainwireSnip:

If the economy is pulling out of its "soft
patch," it's without the strength of the industrial sector.
........
Companies say
customers are buying in small quantities and on short notice. Rising
prices of oil and natural gas are constraining business, balanced in
part by significant export gains from the weakening dollar.
.........
Integrated Device (semiconductors) on Thursday projected flat
revenues and, like a host of others in the sector this month, announced
job cuts. Rudolph Technologies (chipmaking tools) also announced job
cuts on Thursday amid uneven business conditions. Emerson, a diversified
manufacturer, said weak demand for industrial goods is offsetting strong
demand for consumer goods.
..........
Misetich
US economy is on the brink of a new recession

Got gold?

misetich
(03/01/2003; 12:07:10 MDT - Msg ID: 98681)
EMU Fin Mins to Discuss Options in Case of Fin Crisis��
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1046445780000&sn=3&banner=mainwireSnip:

RUSSELS (MktNews) - Eurozone finance ministers will informally
discuss next week the policy response options in the event of severe
financial crisis or economic downturn in the course of the year,
according to sources.
During their normal discussion on the economy at their meeting here
next Thursday, ministers will discuss whether their "armoury" of policy
responses to a severe slowdown would be adequate.
"In case risks materialise, ministers will discuss a potential list
of measures that they would be ready to take," said an EU diplomat.
The risks on the horizon include a sustained spike in oil prices, a
prolonged conflict in the Gulf and the possibility of a continued
downturn in eurozone activity and confidence.
********
Misetich

If something out of the ordinary were to happen (and lets hope not) pursuant to an ill advised Iraqui invasion those "contingency plans" will be tested severely.

Got gold?
ElGordo
(03/01/2003; 12:12:25 MDT - Msg ID: 98682)
Border will screen for radiation
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/03/01/attack/main542445.shtml(CBS)�All travelers arriving in the United States will be screened by federal border inspectors for radiological materials beginning this weekend, according to Saturday's editions of The New York Times.

The newspaper quotes senior Bush administration officials as saying the plan is designed to stop terrorists from bringing nuclear material across the border. The Tinmes describes it as the most important in a series of counter-terrorism measures that are being put into place as the Customs Service, the Immigration and Naturalization Service and 18 other federal agencies formally merge into the new Department of Homeland Security on Saturday.
_______________
Sorry about the Turkey post, I should have waited a few minutes!


ElGordo
(03/01/2003; 12:21:40 MDT - Msg ID: 98683)
Goldbug Heaven in Hong Kong! :-)
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/eastasia/view/33697/1/.htmlHong Kong's golden toilets attract thousands of Chinese tourists�

Crowds of Chinese tourists desperate to catch a glimpse of the world's most expensive toilets are flocking to a Hong Kong jewellery shop in Kowloon.

On display in the shop is a pair of gleaming gold toilets in a gold tiled bathroom encrusted with precious gems.Advertisement
The entire bathroom costs US$7.6 million.

It attracts around 4,000 visitors every day, and most of them are from the mainland.

The bathroom is the brainchild of China-born jeweller Lam Sai-wing.

Many visitors are overawed by the show of opulence.

"We've never seen anything like this before. When you see it for the first time, it's like the most beautiful thing, the most, most beautiful thing. There is so much gold, we could never have imagined anything like this, never ever imagined," said Mr Wang, a Chinese tourist.

For some visitors, like Gao Qingyin from eastern Hangzhou, just looking at the toilets is not enough.

"What I mean is, wouldn't it be better if the toilet was open and each person could shut the door and use it, could sit down and really feel what it's like," Gao Qingyin said.

The working toilets do boast a state-of-the-art automatic flushing system but they are off-limits to tourists.

Visitors also have to don plastic covers over their shoes to avoid scuffing the 900-gram gold bars embedded in the floor.

Some impressed tourists have requested their own golden bathroom accessories after visiting the showroom.

"Well, they may not want to build exactly the same toilet or washroom in their house, but sometimes they will ask, 'I just want to order the golden frame or the water tank', like that way," Kathi Ng, President of the Hang Feng Gold Technology Group said.


ElGordo
(03/01/2003; 12:31:41 MDT - Msg ID: 98684)
Mini-Me futures.
CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 27, 2003--The Board of Trade Clearing Corporation (the "Clearing Corporation") announced it has approved a temporary waiver of clearing fees for the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) mini-sized metals contracts.

The waiver of mini-sized Gold and mini-sized Silver futures are effective on March 1, 2003 and will expire on May 31, 2003, unless an extension is announced. The waiver covers all participants for open outcry and electronic trades.

"The Clearing Corporation supports the CBOT's endeavor to encourage additional volume growth in the mini-sized gold and silver futures contracts," said Michael C. Dawley, Chairman of the Board of the Clearing Corporation.

Additionally, the CBOT has announced an increase in trading volume in its mini-sized metals contracts, with open interest in mini-sized Gold futures reaching almost 2,000 contracts.


ge
(03/01/2003; 12:59:03 MDT - Msg ID: 98685)
Morgan Stanley on current account balancing
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030228-fri.htmlStephen Li Jen :

"One of the problems with the USD correction we've seen since the beginning of 2002 is that it has materialised primarily through the European axes and not the Asian axes."

...

"This is problematic because the goods market imbalances of the US are against Asia, not against Europe. USD weakness against the EUR and the GBP does very little to correct the current account (C/A) problem in the US. Indeed, the US C/A deficit continues to march toward the 5.5% of GDP mark, despite a weaker USD. For the US C/A imbalances to normalise, USD/Asia must correct!"

...

Eric Chaney :

"As the decline of the US dollar carries on � the US currency is only half-way on its way down, according to my colleague Stephen Jen � the situation will get even worse if the euro is the only counterpart to bear the burden of the rebalancing of the US economy. Well, it seems that this is the case, since most Asian currencies are practically linked to the USD. Using the weights used by the Fed for its own currency basket, it appears that a 10% effective depreciation of the USD would require a 50% rise of the EUR/USD rate. If only half of this is behind us, there is more pain coming for Europe. In addition, it seems that the well-established correlation between oil prices and the USD exchange rate is now inverted and that, practically, the euro has now taken the status of "petro-currency." Just imagine what would happen if crude oil prices stayed around $40 for some time."
Foreigner
(03/01/2003; 14:18:41 MDT - Msg ID: 98687)
A quote to consider by self-proclaimed "American Patriot"
This quote is attributed to Julius Caesar (although not appearing in any of his writings: "Beware the leader who bangs the drums of war in order to whip up the citizenry into a patriotic fervor, for patriotism is indeed a double-edged sword. It both emboldens the blood, just as it narrows the mind. And when the drums of war have reached a fever pitch and the blood boils with hate and the mind has closed, the leader will have no need in seizing the rights of the citizenry. Rather, the citizenry, infused with fear and blinded by patriotism, will offer up all of their rights unto the leader and gladly so. How do I know? For this is what I have done. And I am Caesar."

Boilermaker
(03/01/2003; 14:39:01 MDT - Msg ID: 98688)
21mabry #98619 -Career Choice
Here's your career plan:
We need some insiders at the Forum. Please consider a Masters degree and phD in Economics. Get a job with the Federal Reserve and become a Governor. And keep us poor devils here at the Forum advised what's going on.

Seriously, your interest in the discussions that take place here suggest you may be inclined to a field such as economics or finance. After 40 years of an engineering career I'm not too interested in technical matters except for their economic potential.
Foreigner
(03/01/2003; 14:46:42 MDT - Msg ID: 98689)
Rooke (gone) post
Ooops, his post has been pulled out. Nevertheless he should do some thinking before offending other people.
R Powell
(03/01/2003; 15:11:44 MDT - Msg ID: 98690)
Decreased Mexican silver supply
ElGordo, thanks for the heads-up (98665) on that metals report from Reuters. There was some similar news a while back, also about decreased Mexican production but further investigation revealed that Mexican ore was being shipped to Texas for processing. This meant silver derived from ore was decreased in Mexico because the ore was processed in the USofA. I remember talk also of striking workers which may have slowed production or, perhaps, caused the shipping of ore to Texas? So many conclusions have to be made with dubious information.

Whether this is a similar case or not remains to be seen. I have thought silver production is more closely tied to the prices of copper and zinc. A slowing economy should slow the demand for most base metals. It is ore processing for base metals that accounts for most of silver's production. The year 2002 may be recorded as one of decreasing demand for silver. I wonder how much in comparison to this coming demand number, has mining supply slowed? The final number will tell us if more existing supply was needed to balance supply/demand for 2002 or not. My guess is about an 80 million ounce downdraw for 2002 but it's only a guess. The possibility of silver use for pressure treating wood products brings to mind an additional use of silver that may be beyond the market's ability to supply.
Thanks for posting the article.
Rich
TownCrier
(03/01/2003; 15:30:37 MDT - Msg ID: 98691)
Rookie's observations
On one hand, I think it is likely that a large fraction of what you may be perceiving as "anti-American and anti-Bush attitudes" among participants is primarily a misdiagnosis of, especially, what might more properly be deemed overzealous expressions of anti-dollarization -- a sentiment often shared by posters both here and abroad. I say "overzealous" because the typical anti-dollar posts which are well-stated don't readily lend themselves to misinterpretation as an equivalent to anti-America.

That said, it is a sad truth that there are a small fraction of posts that appear here which seem unmistakably anti-U.S. and are seemingly put forth with no other objective than to vent a passionate negative opinion. In the same way, we receive posts that praise and glorify the U.S. and are seemingly put forth with no other objective than to vent a passionate positive opinion.

As OPINIONS, they each belong to an individual and are thus of equal merit -- whatever merit "opinion" has I shall leave to each reader to decide for himself.

FACTS, on the other hand, tend to speak for themselves. Unfortunately, opinions and facts often blur because rarely is the truth fully known; and where it IS fully known it isn't necessarily fully understood in the context of its surrounding. Interpretation is always involved, and thus, different individuals armed with various amounts of facts and differing interpretive skills will arrive and different opinions that reflect their very own important view of the world.

On a person by person basis, any given opinion matters only insofar as is shapes the decisions and actions taken by the individual who owns that opinion. However, in a democratically or market driven world of majority rule, these opinions as the motivation for actions start to take on great importance as they collectively influence large-scale operations, legislation, affiliations and movements of men and nations.

This is all very fascinating. It really is. Wouldn't it be nice if some good-intentioned soul with the necessary resources and resolve would set up a discussion forum specifically for the discussion of socio-geo-political opinion and its bearing on the future directions of man's large-scale interaction with man? That would be great! However, the focus of this forum, hosted by a well-intentioned gold brokerage, is a much more limited scope -- specifically, the ROLE OF GOLD in men's lives set against all these greater events and movements.

Where our posters go astray, to the detriment of this forum's purpose and long-term viability, is where they neglect the gold aspect (which binds us all as brothers and sisters) and instead fixate on their own singular geopolitical opinions, individually using their supply of stones for either throwing at others or raising an altar. In this way, all meaningful discussion ends as half-build altars become make-shift shelters as the remaining stones are employed to return fire. Again, this would be great stuff -- at another forum devoted to that purpose.

We do our best to keep the focus on gold through example, through reminders, and, when necessary, through "ex post" facto redaction, to put anasty business kindly.

Bottom line: if gold owners can't themselves set a good example of measured interaction among all the world, then I don't know which other body of people could fill the role. The challenge is offered, and I think we can rise to the occasion. If we don't, who will?

"There is always hope"

Thanks again to everyone who contributes in one way or another to maintaining the integrity of this gold forum, even if in no other way than by simply refraining from posting off topic or venting singular political opinions. While fascinating, as I've said before, this is not the place for that. Seek out your friends and family to get something off your chest because doing it here chips away at the foundation of this special gold edifice.

And of course, speaking of support, when you want to add more gold to your portfolio of wealth, please choose USAGOLD-Centennial as your brokerage.

Randy
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/01/2003; 16:30:18 MDT - Msg ID: 98692)
Ally yourself with a gold broker that is knowledgeable and also cares...

newsletter

In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals' founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:

"[M]uch of this issue is devoted to oil, inflation, international politics and gold. . . . . Though the dollar continued to rise against most international currencies during the past month, most currencies ( including the dollar) were depreciating against real goods. . . . AND IT IS THE TREND THAT HAS ECONOMISTS CONCERNED. Crude oil, which must be purchased with dollars, is being blamed as the chief culprit. When the dollar price of oil rises, it fans the inflationary fires of nearly every nation in the world. All of this could at some point inspire a dollar rebellion among the nations of the world, with both oil producers and oil consumers capable of finding fault with the dollar simultaneously . . . . In such a case gold, of course, would become one of the primary beneficiaries and the dollar could go into a tailspin."

ABCs bookTake note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

News & Views is available to our clientele only. However, the latest issue is back from the printer and available to prospective gold investors who request an INFORMATION PACKET on one-time only basis. We invite your request.

If you would like to get a feel for the thinking that forms the basis for market conclusions like the one featured above, take advantage of the offer to include THE ABCs of GOLD INVESTING: PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH THROUGH PRIVATE GOLD OWNERSHIP. A prompt with ordering information will come up after you submit your request for the INFORMATION PACKET.

Boilermaker
(03/01/2003; 16:59:22 MDT - Msg ID: 98693)
Randy
Excellent reminder. Many of us get caught up in the passions of the day. We must stay focused for the sake of our common but extremely important issue.
Boilermaker
21mabry
(03/01/2003; 18:06:59 MDT - Msg ID: 98694)
yen
Was reading financial times,there was an article about the strong infighting going on in the bank of japan on whether to let the yen strengthen or weaken against the dollar,I am still trying to understand the implications. Boliermaker I thought about economics I am weak in math algebra was difficult for me I do not think I could get by calculus,I have taken I Q tests and score well until it comes to spatial ability the test givers always comment on this fact to me.
TownCrier
(03/01/2003; 18:15:21 MDT - Msg ID: 98695)
HEADLINE: Hints of rising inflation in slack economy stir memories of 1970s stagflation
http://www.canada.com/vancouver/story.asp?id=1F5076F3-4B2F-4724-8EC2-738CCC799C57NEW YORK (AP) - No sooner did hints of rising inflation emerge than the muttering began on Wall Street about the possible return of dreaded stagflation.

It was last seen three decades ago, when rising inflation, failing growth and surging unemployment crippled the North American economy. No one would welcome its return.

In periods of stagflation, economic growth is feeble but inflation roars ahead - as it normally would during times of rapid expansion.

It's a term that was coined in the 1970s after the OPEC oil embargo caused a dramatic surge in the cost of crude oil and gasoline and sent inflation soaring.

"High inflation pushed up interest rates and eroded buying power, and as a result consumer and business spending remained soft, preventing the economy from growing," said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis.

-------(see full text at url)-------

Last time, the price of gold was pushed up to $850 per ounce. This time around, there are far, far more dollars whirling around to settle into proportionately less gold per weakening buck. Act to protect your purchasing power with a prudent diversification into gold.

R.
21mabry
(03/01/2003; 18:35:55 MDT - Msg ID: 98696)
gold market
I believe the news that Iraq destroyed its long range missls came out after gold markets were closed.If the gold market would have been open would there have been a large downward move is it coming monday.Does the destruction of these missles weaken President Bush and his aggressive stance against Hussien.
Zhisheng
(03/01/2003; 18:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 98697)
Rookie's Observations
Rookie, though your post has been pulled, I have been thinking about your observations, and pondering why the posters at this site AS A WHOLE should appear as they have to you. Here is what I think.

People here are interested in gold: on the one hand as a means to protect or increase their wealth, and on the other hand in the influence of gold upon politics, the economy, the monetary system, and society. Some of course have more of the former subjective interest, and some more of the latter objective interest, and the two cannot easily be separated.

Many have the FUNDAMENTAL belief that gold is a primary obstacle to debasement of currency, and thereby an obstacle to the currency issuer (i.e the Government through its Central Bank).

Government obtains its funds mostly through three methods: taxation, borrowing, and debasement of its currency. Since taxation is limited, especially within a democracy where the taxed elect the taxers, large-scale borrowing usually implies deferred debasement (increase of the money supply to repay the loans at their maturity). It is widely recognized that the US has facilitated debasement of the dollar by gradually lessening the formal connection of gold to the dollar: first refusing its citizens free exchange in the early thirties, then putting pressure on foreigners not to exercise free exchange in the sixties, and finally closing the "gold window" altogether in August of 1971. There is formally no gold connection with the dollar now, but there is still a practical connection, an important one: while there is not free exchange of the dollar for a fixed amount of gold (which would curb debasement), there is free exchange of the dollar for gold at the market rate. If people think that the market rate will rise in the future, they will buy gold NOW, which will increase that market rate (the price of gold), and this will make manifest to many that the dollar is being debased. And the advantage of debasement over taxation is precisely that debasement is not so obvious to the voters as is taxation.

And so the Government must do what it can to quell the prospect that the price of gold will rise. It would be na�ve to think that the Government would not use whatever means it had at its disposal to curb a rise in the price of gold, just so long as it appears to the Government that the mass of people do not understand that the currency is being debased.

As fascinating as this all is to those whose interest in gold is objective, it is depressing to those whose interest is mainly subjective: to wit, to those who have invested in gold. For it adversely affects the investments of these people, among whom is the great majority of the posters at this site.

Presumably, efforts of Government to curb gold will become more intense as its need for funds becomes more intense. When the economy weakens and tax revenues drop, the need for funds increases. When war is imminent, the need for funds increases. The person who serves as focus for reaction to the acts of Government is its Chief Executive: presently, George W. Bush.

Perhaps some of all this is reflected in the posts of this site, and perhaps it is on this that Rookie is picking up.


Cometose
(03/01/2003; 18:50:27 MDT - Msg ID: 98698)
Mark Robinson / Marc Faber articles
Seems as though based on the latest intel coming out re: Al Queda trancript of Feb 24 that we've switched from Orange alert prematurely....this according to Mark Robinson article (Says that March 14 is pretty large day in Muslim History / also interestingly enough ---close to the Roman Ides of March ) from a forum across the hall....Jim Pupulva et al

and there also ....encouraging words on gold from Marc Faber, who challenges recent claims by Robert Prechter ....
says that hedge funds bought the gold on the way up and as they like to trade sold it down.....THEY'LL BE BACK>>>>>>>



Liberty Head
(03/01/2003; 19:26:30 MDT - Msg ID: 98699)
Two Sides, One Coin

I understand what "supply and demand" is and how "it" works in a force-free environment. I say "it" because, supply and demand, is but two sides of the same coin.
You can't affect supply without affecting demand. Our environment, however, is not force-free.

Keep�em Guessing
It's the force/minipulation part that is so difficult to fully comprehend and keeps us guessing. Force can be applied covertly or overtly. It can be directed at the supply side or the demand side. As we see, these numerous forces can be very large, acute or chronic, emotional or rational, and conflicting in nature. The value of discernment and trust in oneself becomes paramount in the guessing game. Actions can speak where words fail, so one must pay attention.

While we definitely have some work to do, ultimately, regarding gold, we have but three choices, go long, go short, or go home. Long and short, buying and selling, like supply and demand, are again two sides of the same coin. Along with our choice of sides, comes a corresponding opposition.
Like a game of poker, keep the opposition guessing as they do to you. That's why I like gold bullion coins. No one knows whether you are going long or short. No one knows how much you have or where you keep it, what you are doing with it or how well it is protected. Unlike the dollar, gold flies below radar. Our big and powerful opposition sets the radar detection limits, so like jujitsu; use it to your advantage.
Besides, each bullion coin has two sides and you own both.

Note
The opposition, as I see it, is big government control and all those advocating force/resistance paradigms over responsible behavior. I do not equate being anti-big government with being anti-American or pro-anarchy. Quite the opposite.
No debates on this, please.


Cheers
21mabry
(03/01/2003; 20:13:27 MDT - Msg ID: 98700)
sterling silver
Could someone in the forum,I am thinking this is right up physicalmans alley.I want to start buying sterling silver at estate and garage sales I have heard there are great buys out there.How much does one look to pay?Is it sold by the gram?How can one protect oneself against fraud?Any info would be helpfull.thnx all 21
1340cc
(03/01/2003; 21:32:54 MDT - Msg ID: 98701)
21mabry
I have been "saleing" and doing estate sales for years. No, sterling isn't sold by weight at sales. About the only thing you have to look for is to make sure it is stamped "sterling". There are books on antique silver you can buy at some flea markets and some book stores. Your best bets are in modest neighborhoods. The more modest the less pricey it will be. Go to several antique stores and price different items and then hit the sales. Your better buys are often at sales that are off the beaten path. Professional estate sales are hard because pros are there early and are sharks. If you see a hand made sign that is not in the paper try them first. You will see the same people at sales and you will learn what they are there to buy. I have had people that knew what I was after point out things I might be interested in that I had overlooked.
Good luck. And buy the way it is habit forming!!!

1340cc
(03/01/2003; 22:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 98702)
Saleing for silver 21 mabery
I just saw in another chat room where someone attends auctions, estate sales and flea markets and buys silver. He mentioned the "melt value" of silver. I don't know what it is right now ,it's been 23-24 years since I worked in the bussiness and it was a lot higher than it is now, but any jeweler should be able to tell you. When I worked in Denver at a jewelery store we bought a couple of sterling knives at about $100 for each piece. Good luck.
melda laure
(03/01/2003; 23:19:02 MDT - Msg ID: 98703)
Golden thrones in Hong Kong
The last time I saw one of those was in cuzco, the year slips my mind, must've been around the time of the norman conquest, give or take 52 years. I think I must've remarked to the royal chamberlain "really I think you're taking this 'excrement of the gods' a bit too literally." He said something like "You elves think you know everything, next you'll tell me that earth is at the center of the universe." I hear there was talk of installing something similar in the USSR. At least some of the inca got to actually see their gold. That's more than can be said of the present citizens of the USA.

Only 7.6 megabucks for my own golden throne? Hope the "seat" is water heated. May be a bit of an effort to lift the lid. I'd better stop.
Chris Powell
(03/01/2003; 23:41:41 MDT - Msg ID: 98704)
Barrick may NEVER have to repay its borrowed gold
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1449New York Times examines Barrick's lagging share
price and the Blanchard lawsuit against Barrick
and Morgan Chase, and finds out that Barrick may
NEVER have to repay ANY borrowed gold.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
melda laure
(03/01/2003; 23:54:23 MDT - Msg ID: 98705)
Supply, Demand, Catastrophe theory
An interesting book: Catastrophe Theory and its applications, by Tim Poston and Ian Stewart. It's probably more than you'd want to read, but the first two chapters and some of the examples in the back are good, and there really isn't that much "math" involved.

What is discussed is some of the stability problems. Most simple discussions of supply and demand presume (for arguments sake) that supply and demand follow simple monotonic curves (preferrably straight lines). Reality is that supply and demand are more like a bucking bronco: a lot of up and down but occasionally he trips and keels over. Interestingly they discuss ship building. With this as background you can attempt to put the FOA predictions to various gedanken experimenten: what underlies the current demand picture? What lies beyond the present region of stability? Present prices have been (for several decades) a mirage: a finely leveled balance beam upheld by big burly arms of big players (mostly governments). They wont let you touch that balance beam. The best you can do is to grab a few grains of that yellow stuff as they load and unload the tray (with virtual gold). And while they may be able to hold that golden balance beam steady for the present, the big guys have to do this while they balance on their tip toes on a highwire (and lately it seems it's been an oily high wire at that) Meanwhile some guy named Chavez the Magnificent is trying to scratch himself betweent the shoulderblades and some guy named Ken Lay has sold twice as many tickets to the circus, as there are seats, doubled up on fire insurance and taken out a 2nd mortgage on the circus company.

Really is this a show you want to attend? Scalp your ticket, take your winnings home and stuff them in a sock.

Gandalf the White
(03/02/2003; 01:36:17 MDT - Msg ID: 98706)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlContest update!
NO change from the data from YESTERDAY ! <;-)

Join the fun and you could win the Gold and/or Silver !!

Just go to the above LINK and follow "The Yellow Brick Road"!!

There alrady have been fifteen brave "EARLY BIRDS" that Prognosticated the POG Settlement of 3/13/03, AND that have also submitted the same number of diverse concept entries in the ESSAY "confession" contest.

2/28/03 Apr 03 COMEX Contract
HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1
Yesterday�s Open Interest 107869

At this time 2/28/03, (until at least Monday), Sir Kevin$ is the "King of the Hill" !!!

COME ON IN all you Lurkers, and walk away with a CLINK in your pocket !
<;-)
ElGordo
(03/02/2003; 04:14:50 MDT - Msg ID: 98707)
North Korea warns of nuclear disaster in case of U.S. attack
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2003/3/2/latest/10527NorthKore&sec=latestSEOUL, South Korea (AP): North Korea on Sunday warned of "nuclear disasters'' worldwide if it is attacked by the United States, while its civilian officials urged greater cooperation between North and South Korea to stave off conflict on the volatile Korean Peninsula.

The North's official Rodong Sinmun newspaper accused the CIA of preparing a surprise attack on the communist nation's nuclear facilities, which are suspected of being used to make atomic bombs.

"If the U.S. imperialists ignite a war on the Korean Peninsula, the war will turn into a nuclear war,'' said the newspaper report, carried by the North's state-run KCNA news agency. "As a consequence, the Koreans in the north and south and the people in Asia and the rest of the world will suffer horrifying nuclear disasters.''

On Saturday, North Korea said nuclear war could break out on the peninsula at "any moment,'' after new South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun warned of a "calamity'' unless the standoff is resolved peacefully and quickly.

The North, believed by U.S. officials to already have one or two nuclear bombs, accuses the United States of inciting the standoff over its nuclear programs as a pretext for an invasion. Washington repeatedly said it has no plans to attack North Korea, but stresses that "all options are on the table.''
Gold Standard
(03/02/2003; 06:17:29 MDT - Msg ID: 98708)
Hmmm.... North Korean bluster

All the proponents of the pro-war and anti-war debate should keep one fact in mind.

The Western Allies in World War 2 got out the big stick, and whacked Japan over the head with it.

Japan has behaved itself impeccably for the last 58 years.

Makes you think, doesn't it?

Got lotsa gold?

silvercollector
(03/02/2003; 06:28:04 MDT - Msg ID: 98709)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/02/2003; 07:51:39 MDT - Msg ID: 98710)
Your understanding of gold may well be your North Star as you navigate the future
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

ABCs of Gold by MK"Without waxing philosophical, a few words are helpful concerning the mind-set with which you pursue your interest in gold ownership. Some enter the gold market to make a profit, others to hedge disaster, some to accomplish both. No matter into which category you fit, make sure you understand why you are going into the gold market. Convey that understanding to the individual with whom you are structuring your gold portfolio. The whys have quite a bit to do with what you end up owning.

"Frequently investors will say that any kind of gold will do because after all gold is gold, isn't it? This type of attitude has helped a great many coin shop owners unload unwanted inventory they hadn't been able to get rid of for years. This is probably a good deal for the coin dealer, but it could spell disaster for you. In the same vein, I have talked to hundreds, probably thousands, of investors in nearly a quarter century in the business. Quite often, potential investors have no more reason for buying gold than 'everybody else is doing it.'

"In Chapter 16 on portfolio planning, you will find some details on this important subject. For now, consider the inscription over the entrance to the temple of the ancient Delphic Oracle: 'Know Thyself.' Study. Read. Learn what's going on around you. Call a few gold firms and ask questions. There's nothing like conversation to stimulate thinking. Take time to lay a little groundwork. Then make your move. The political and economic situation being what it is, there is no better time to start than now. Know thyself -- your goals and needs -- and you will be a more confident, happier gold investor." (more)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/02/2003; 07:57:06 MDT - Msg ID: 98711)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. In your book, The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership you start the chapter by saying "Who you do business with is one of the most important aspects of gold investing." Why is that?

MK. Most, if not all, of the progress an investor makes towards realizing his or her goals with respect to gold ownership hinges on that relationship. Unbiased, objective advice from one's gold advisor is a key element. So are market information and education. Pricing, product selection, fulfillment and on-going support also rely on that relationship. Above all, it is extremely important for gold buyers to match their objectives with the type of gold they buy. Positive results in all of those areas depend upon a strong relationship with a gold firm. That is why it is important to spend some time finding the right one.

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

MK. The biggest trap investors fall into is buying a gold investment that bears little or no relationship to his or her objectives. Take safe haven investors for example. That group makes up 90% of our clientele, and probably a good 75% of the current physical gold market. Most often the safe-haven investors simply want to add gold coins to their portfolio mix, but by the time they finish talking with a typical national firm, they might end up in a leveraged gold position, exotic rare coins, or being diverted into silver or platinum. Others drift into gold stocks or gold futures which in reality are proxies for real gold ownership and could actually act opposite the intent of the investor. There's nothing wrong with any of these non-physical investments per se, it's just that none of them is really a safe-haven. The investor should bear this in mind. The question investors must always answer for themselves is "How will this investment serve me should the economy or financial markets suffer a major disruption?"

silvester
(03/02/2003; 08:01:39 MDT - Msg ID: 98712)
Zhisheng message #98697 to Rookie

Every now and then someone notices there are some among us who have a difficult time understanding the big gold picture. They take the time to explain and do so in a way that clears away the fog. It's that confusing fog which is discussed here at such depth that some(myself included) get lost in it.

It always helps when a hundred years of history are condensed into a few easy to follow paragraphs. It is as if you said "wait Rookie, start at the trail head and the path will appear clear."

Zhiseng your message was clear, simple and helpful I'm sure to more than a few. Thanks

CoBra(too)
(03/02/2003; 08:11:30 MDT - Msg ID: 98713)
Snippets from the Privateer (#470)
From the first Page:

"... In 1980 the sum total of debts (hosehold, businesses and corporations AND all of the US Federal Government's - federal, states and local) in the USA stood at 4 Trillion US Dollars.
At the end of the 3rd. Qu. 2002 it has soared to a sum total of 31 Trillion Dollars at a whopping 295% og the US GDP.
The previous high of this ratio of 264% was reached in 1929 - and we know what followed then. ...

And from the last Page (12):

... The central issue is the solvency of US, and the present "policy" of the Bush administration makes it certain that this solvency is going to be strained to and beyond breaking point. ...
... Russia has made it clear that the US will NOT get a UN sanction for a war against Iraq. Militarily, the US is indeed strong enough to go it alone. Financially,it is NOT. The rest of the world knows this, and it also knows that the only way to stop the US military push is to take away the money. If the US shreds all further remnants of its "international legitimacy" by a unilateral war, it will also shred all furter remnants of the "international legitimacy" of its debt obligations and its currency. That is the REAL threat now overhanging world markets everywhere."

Scary, though realistic thoughts by Bill Buckler, and he has built up a quite reputation as a true gold advocate.
In the meantime the US Dollar is hovering around the 100 level vis a vis a basket of currencies. Seemingly the (relative) strenght of the Euro has carried the brunt of this move. For how long can the strain on the international currency and monetary system survive, as the US seems willing to go on pushing on a string?
The POG itself seems clearly managed again since John Snow has taken over, to hover within "manageable" price bands.
Again, it only seems a question of time before Gold breaks out of the range the PTB have determined as intervention points.
War or not may eventually be only another diffusion, or better side show to cover up the real mess and disarray of the Fiat Currency System for a while longer.

When the music stops - gold will once again prove to be the only shelter to weather the coming "Perfect Financial Storm".
A moody cb2


Tate
(03/02/2003; 08:14:20 MDT - Msg ID: 98714)
The Last Days of Pompey
Just received Standard Life financial statements. Big losses for year 2002. There goes our retirement.
Many folks must be looking at same numbers this morning. I wonder how many account holders will take action to terminate their accounts and how many know what investment alternatives are. Sadly many do not read these statements at all and don not realize their retirement pensions are up in smoke. And we are not even sub 5000 for DJ30. Today's Netscape home page shows 9/11 smoke blanketing lower Manhattan. I think US economy had its best days of unsustainable run up. Lower standard of living will take hold on most North Americans, excluding elite. Allan Greenspan (AG) surprised me by signals gold standard. Who is against him??? My take this would be big spenders. They stand most to loose. Such people are king makers who finance politicians. Nothing changed from The Last Days of Pompey.


TownCrier
(03/02/2003; 08:23:53 MDT - Msg ID: 98715)
Rising gold price masks declining production trend
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/03/02/1046540067813.html(excerpt)
March 3 2003 -- Increased December-quarter production thanks to the commissioning of new mines was not enough to stop the year-on-year slide in Australia's gold production in 2002.

According to a survey by Surbiton Associates, released yesterday, gold production for 2002 fell by 3 per cent to 275 tonnes (8.8 million ounces).

The Melbourne-based mining industry consultant said that the fall was the fifth in a row since the 1997 record of 314 tonnes of gold.

------(see url for article)------

Dollars, on the other hand...

It all comes down to supply and demand -- demand for something tangible and trustworthy. Have you ever heard the phrase "Good as dollars"? No, neither have I. In this great game of bridge (get it? "bridge" -- wealth to span time and space), pick a winning partner. Choose gold.

R.
Dollar Bill
(03/02/2003; 08:43:02 MDT - Msg ID: 98716)
Liberty Head
Glad you posted.
You picked a good name, or, if you came here long ago, names were assigned.
TownCrier
(03/02/2003; 08:51:13 MDT - Msg ID: 98717)
HEADLINE: Gold climbs as dollar slides against the euro
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2003/03/02/196556Sunday, Mar 02, 2003 (BLOOMBERG) -- Gold rose as the US dollar declined against the euro, prompting more buying of the dollar-denominated metal in Europe.

...The dollar fell against the euro for a third time this week and has lost 20 percent of its value against the European currency in the past year.

"New buying has come in with the dollar weakening," said Frank McGhee, head trader at Alliance Financial LLC, a gold-trading company in Chicago. "We're predominately trading on the dollar" after the rally spurred by war fears was deemed "overdone," he said.

-------(from url)----

Many Europeans are taking advantage of gold's strength versus the dollar. Main Street USA, are you? Call USAGOLD-Centennial this week for assistance.

R.
21mabry
(03/02/2003; 08:51:13 MDT - Msg ID: 98718)
Orwell
A course in the works of George Orwell should be offered in every high school in this country.IMO it would be one of the best ways to preserve freedom in this world 1984 is one of the most disturbing and thought provoking books I have read and if someone wants to read a good personel diary of the spanish civil war read Homage to Catalonia, great insight into the diffrent groups who made up the struggle. And remember Some are more equal than others.
TownCrier
(03/02/2003; 09:13:14 MDT - Msg ID: 98719)
You, or someone like you...
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&T=markets_box.ht∣dle=ad_frame2_all&s=APmIWSBTPSFNCQydzHEADLINE: HSBC's Marc Chandler Says Fed Policy Is Depressing U.S. Dollar

New York, March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at HSBC Bank USA, says that in 1986, when he answered an ad in the Chicago Tribune for a reporter to cover currency and Eurodollar futures at the International Monetary Market, he had one thing in mind: finding an interesting writing job.

After earning two master's degrees -- one in American history and one in international relations -- he wanted a job that wouldn't have him watching the clock every day. Seventeen years and eight foreign exchange-related jobs later, Chandler, 41, says he has no regrets about his career path, not even the 4 a.m. reveille, which he swears he manages without an alarm clock.

``It's the place for me that politics and economics come together,'' he says of the $1.2 trillion-a-day currency market. ``What I ultimately want is to be part of the dialogue and discussion of current events.''

[Tellingly...] From his desk on the New York currency-trading floor of HSBC, the world's 12th-biggest foreign exchange trader, Chandler says he spends most of his time supporting the bank's currency sales and marketing efforts. He does so by publishing research or strategy notes...

------(from url)------

Bottom line:
Consider, when the things you gather from mainstream media are largely influenced by input from folks just like this who are primarily "supporting [their] bank's currency sales and marketing efforts", do you think for one minute that you are going to get the inside track on things, or do you think maybe, just maybe, you will instead be served up as the hapless counterparty to the bank's attempt at profits for its own book? Think about it, then go for physical gold because mum's the prevailing word. Do think about it.

R.
Dollar Bill
(03/02/2003; 09:19:36 MDT - Msg ID: 98720)
A nation of One
Greetings Sir Nation of One,
Your post was interesting and I certainly am not equipped to disagree with you.
My thoughts as I rereread you post was that maybe this Dr H,
who is a contributer to the Daily Reckoning, had the same experieince Doug Nolan had.
If you are a Doug Nolan fan, I certainly am, lowly me used to wonder why Doug, persisted in his rants for a few years saying "The fed doesnt know what the hell they are doing"
When even me, student in the back of the class, was thinking, "uh, Doug, why dont you do an analysis from the vantage point of thinking that they DO know what they are doing, it is just that they are not following the rules you are assuming they must operate under.
And, if you are a Doug Nolan enthusiast, you will know that he did indeed change in 2002 to end denial and embrace the idea that foolish or not, the Fed knows precisely what they are doing. Not to say that they forsee the consequences of all thier actions, but that they are not dumb, they have hard choices and are weighing carefully as they can to accomplish thier most pressing goal first. Which I would guess is keeping the Dollar as reserve currency.
The Stranger gets a tip of the hat.

Town Crier made quite a post didnt he. This forum is loaded with gems. Set in gold of course.
TownCrier
(03/02/2003; 09:28:29 MDT - Msg ID: 98721)
HEADLINE: War May Not Be All That Ails Economy
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/reuters20030302_94.htmlWASHINGTON (Reuters) -
...a sizable group of private economists wonders if the economy's problems run deeper than geopolitical worries and argue that the main force depressing growth is a hangover from the boom years.

No matter how the crisis with Iraq plays out, the economy could well remain mired in sluggish growth throughout 2003, these economists contend.

"If, suddenly, we were to wake up tomorrow to the news that Saddam Hussein has quietly left Iraq, I don't think we'd necessarily see a return to trend growth for the economy," said Ed McKelvey, economist with Goldman Sachs and Co. in New York.

"The best way to think about the economy right now is it is still working out the imbalances that came alongside the stock market bubble of the late 1990s," he added.

...How big a role war worries are playing in the economy's performance may be clarified within coming months as the United States, which has been massing troops in the Gulf, has signaled that it does not want to wait much beyond mid-March to take action against Iraq.

...the outcome of any Iraq war might not be as clear-cut for the economy as was the resolution to the Gulf War in 1991. ...with the United States intent on "regime change," even a quick U.S. military victory in Iraq would give way to rebuilding with the cost possibly reaching into the hundreds of billions of dollars.

-----(see url for full text and Fed optimism)------

Not surprising, in its role as the economy's chief cheerleader and confidence booster, the Fed's stand in all this is that "once fears about a war in Iraq lift, U.S. economic growth should return to a healthy clip."

Served up with a grain of salt I'm sure. Our top Fed boys know better than that.

R.
Mr Gresham
(03/02/2003; 10:38:45 MDT - Msg ID: 98722)
Randy
Good posts lately, with sharp insights!

The currency trader for HSBC, for example. One thing not mentioned much here is that the big brokerage and banking firms handle hundreds of billions in trust or discretionary accounts for their clients.

With the plunge of mutual funds, we are finding out now that their standard is not to "make money for our clients", but to "lose less money than the competition does."

That keeps you un-indictable, apparently. Sheesh!

Sheep to the shearing, then slaughter.

All while possibly making your own "private arrangements" for safe retirement. Ones you wouldn't even tell your co-workers at HSBC or ML or GS about. "Stocks always come back -- yeah, right!" "Every man for himself." Why tip your hand? Job rotation is available every few years.

Silence is golden, and gold is silent.

goldfool
(03/02/2003; 10:48:03 MDT - Msg ID: 98723)
In Gold We Trust
http://moneycentral.communities.msn.com/BusinessCenter/general.msnw?action=get_message&mview=0&ID_Message=4824&LastModified=4675411844001161473Gold demons
misetich
(03/02/2003; 10:54:58 MDT - Msg ID: 98724)
Turk: No Plan for Vote on U.S. Troops
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=540&e=2&u=/ap/20030302/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_us_iraqSnip:

ANKARA, Turkey - Turkey's ruling party has no plans in the "foreseeable future" to seek another parliament vote for the deployment of U.S. troops on Turkish soil for a war with Iraq, a party leader said Sunday.


The announcement by Eyup Fatsa, deputy head of the Justice and Development party, came a day after the legislature dealt a serious blow to U.S. war planning by failing to approve a motion to deploy U.S. soldiers, weapons and equipment.


"The proposal has been delayed to an open-ended time. There is no proposal for the foreseeable future," he told reporters after a party meeting to decide whether to resubmit the motion.

**********
Misetich

Vote may be delayed until UN backed resolution -if there will ever be one - the US war hawks plans are complicated - seeing they have a timetable to invade Iraq imminently

Somehow one can't help and ask what price the US and Britain are/will pay - at least on a world perception basis - in other areas

The costs of financing this "war" is increasing on a daily and the longer the "delay from the established War Hawks timetable" the costlier it will become as troops are being continuously deployed.

US "twin deficits" are growing - the economy slowing and going toward recession - job losses/layoffs are continuing -Oil prices are rising as are overall energy prices - housing and auto industry have began to slow -

What is holding up the US $?

You can only manipulate and deceive for so long until reality takes over

Got gold?




Chris Powell
(03/02/2003; 10:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 98725)
NYTimes examines Barrick's lagging share price and Blanchard lawsuit
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1449New York Times examines Barrick's lagging share
price and the Blanchard lawsuit against Barrick
and Morgan Chase, and finds out that Barrick may
NEVER have to repay ANY borrowed gold.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
glennh10
(03/02/2003; 11:15:19 MDT - Msg ID: 98726)
Re: NY Times/Barrick Hedging Article
From what I've surmised, the purpose of banks/lessors is to get as many people/institutions as possible into hock. Do they care if the principle is never repaid, as long as the lessee can continue to make payments? When gold lease rates go up, Barrick might begin to consider returning the gold (paying off or paying down the principle). I could be missing something here, though.
misetich
(03/02/2003; 11:19:44 MDT - Msg ID: 98727)
Other currencies can be benchmarks in international trade
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2003/2/28/nation/odcurren&sec=nationSnip:

PUTRAJAYA: The international community should be encouraged to use other currencies or even gold as the benchmark in international trade because the domination of the US dollar in global transactions is distorting the world?s economy, Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad said.
...........
?When we put too much value on a certain currency, it becomes very powerful and that currency actually works against us,? he said.

He added that since no nation would like ?just one single policeman in the world,? the Euro, yen or even gold should be used for transactions.

?We should be given the choice to use whatever currency that we want,? he said at a meeting with 31 foreign editors and senior journalists at his office yesterday.
.........
For the purpose of trade, we shouldn?t say that oil should be quoted only in US dollars.

Today, the oil price has gone up but the value of the US dollar has gone down, something that the people do not point out,? he added.

The oil price today, he said, was not actually US$36 if this was compared with the value of the dollar a year or three years ago.
.........
?This is a contradiction. Why is this happening?

?It is simply because we are giving value to the US dollar which it doesn?t really have.

?There is nothing to back the US dollar other than people?s belief in it,? he added.
...........
Misetich

"For the purpose of trade, we shouldn?t say that oil should be quoted only in US dollars. "

Only a matter of time - When not IF

Got gold?


TownCrier
(03/02/2003; 11:21:00 MDT - Msg ID: 98728)
Currency crisis in practice
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030221/lf_nm/venezuela_dollar_dc_1CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - At Isabel's beauty salon in downtown Caracas you can get more than a bikini wax, manicure or hair cut. You can now also dabble in the country's burgeoning black market.

Wedged next to a shuttered foreign currency exchange house, Isabel's is one of the newest additions to Venezuela's not-so-secret underworld of dollar traders looking to make quick cash off newly imposed draconian currency controls.

Embattled President Hugo Chavez unceremoniously shut currency markets last month, starving the nation of precious dollars in a bid to shield government foreign reserves from a swelling economic crisis.

"Hey mister, you looking for dollars?" one beauty salon worker whispers to Jose Dos Santos, who is just outside.

Breaking his worried gaze from the darkened windows of the currency exchange next door, Dos Santos blurts out a confused but determined, "Yes, miss. I am."

"I'm leaving tomorrow to live in Portugal and what am I going to do with bolivars over there?" he said.

Dos Santos might as well be the poster-boy for Venezuela's disillusioned immigrant population. He arrived here on the eve of the country's oil boom in the 1960s and opened a small grocery store.

"I've sold everything, my family has sold everything, we're leaving this country," he explained.

NEXT ARGENTINA?

The head of the government's new currency control board, retired army Capt. Edgar Hernandez, recently admitted the black market is "difficult to avoid and difficult to control."

"Leave a dollar free, floating around so the conspirators can slip in there? The dollar's value will rise and undermine the other controls. No, this must be an integrated system," President Chavez said during his weekly Sunday television broadcast.

..."We sell and buy gold," shouts out a middle-aged man in a Caracas plaza...

------(see url for full article)------

Tough business, this; life in the real world.

Put yourself in a position of strength. Own your gold, independent and immutable wealth, BEFORE you really, really need it. Buying a fire insurance policy provides no relief if you do it AFTER your house is in ashes.

A word to the wise.

R.
R Powell
(03/02/2003; 11:21:27 MDT - Msg ID: 98729)
Operative // taxes (oh,no)
Congratulations on your natural gas trades. Congrats more on your research methods than on the profits since the methodology can be repeated, hopefully with the same positive results. The numbers of supply and demand seem to more accurately predict price movements on those commodities (like gas) whose supply and demand more closely follows a yearly cycle than do gold and silver, no? This pertains again to the unknown amount of existing stores. However, this is not to say that the numbers don't matter with metals, just that more patience is required.

But, maybe it is the nonconformity of yearly numbers to the price movement that creates even more potential for the under or over valuation of metals. I guess if price cycles exist with metals, they would tend to have a longer time frame so that the last low POG at $252 may have signaled the beginning of a very long bull market. I've read that currency cycles are very long, slow moving affairs. This also determines POG and its cycles. Perhaps the real market price determining factors are just slowly evolving conditions in comparison to one very cold winter?

I wanted to warn you of the tax consequences of your gas trade profits. One of the supporting reasons for physical ownership is that most local metals dealers deal only in cash and are not required to forward any IRS forms to report profit or loss for their clients. Paper traders are not exempt. Most commodity accounts are marked-to-market on a yearly basis and taxed partly as long term and partly as short term gains or loses. The danger is that the account can show taxable profits on the last day of the year but these profits may or may not be available by the time (April 15) the tax is due. Plan accordingly.

Lastly, I don't mean to imply you or anyone else can not handle his/her own monetary affairs. Please don't take offense. I believe there are more paper investors here than is commonly supposed and some may benefit from this warning. Those with large physical holdings may also be subject to windfall taxes, but I'll leave this subject alone as I have never had to deal with it before and know nothing about it.

Also, a word of thanks to BB and others for the continuing supply of information that may very well determine our future, whether that implies barely surviving or nicely prospering, I think we should be better prepared than those who lack the knowledge available here.
Happy weekend
Rich
TownCrier
(03/02/2003; 12:06:08 MDT - Msg ID: 98730)
Posted on behalf of an acquaintance of MK who wishes to remain anonymous
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256CD9000F7127?OpenDocumentReceived by e-mail, message follows:
__________________________
The very interesting piece by Tim Wood [Randy's note: see the url I've provided above] re Newmont's hedging position, entitled 'Gold Hedging Brinkmanship is Here', set me to thinking.

Reasonably assuming that the physical gold borrowed by a bullion bank, such as J.P.Morgan/Chase from a central bank such as the U.S., the gold then being sold as part of the gold carry trade, with the proceeds invested at a higher yield than the cost of borrowing, such bullion bank, not being a producer of gold nor holder of physical gold, is not "creditworthy" to repay the physical gold. Under such circumstances, the central bank could not, under accounting rules, carry the loan as a "performing" loan and would have to write it off, with corresponding loss of physical gold reserve numbers.

Accordingly, plausible deniability as to such nonwriteoff by the central bank is required. So, the bullion bank guarantees its ability to repay the borrowed physical sufficient to prevent writeoff of the physical loan by the central bank by entering into a contract for delivery of physical from the gold mining company/producer such as American-Barrick. But a reasonably prudent gold producer such as Barrick would not maintain a large forward (hedge) position in a rising market, hence the contractual right in Barrick, as described in its company press release, to roll the hedge contracts forward up to fifteen (15) years at Barrick's sole election. But such contract provision would render such right in the bullion bank to gain the physical to honor its central bank repayment commitments as illusory for central bank accounting purposes, thus causing the physical gold loan to be written off.

Further, no reasonably prudent bullion bank would enter into such a contract with the gold producer since the bullion bank would not be gaining much (any) practical benefit. Therefor, the provision in the counterparty bullion bank, as described in the Tim Wood article, allowing the bullion bank to "break the contract" in advance of the physical delivery date, at the sole election of the bullion bank, and receive federal reserve notes computed at the prevailing gold price in lieu of the physical, allowing the bank to go into the physical spot market and buy the physical necessary to repay the central bank physical loan. Plausable deniability for accounting purposes is therefor created in the central bank as to the bullion banks ability to repay the physical loan, and the loan need not be written off for accounting purposes.

In this regard, it is interesting to note that it has been stated that no demand for such early breaking of such a contract has ever been received. If true, such nondemand would imply that no demand for repayment of the physical gold loan has ever been made by the central bank to the bullion bank. One may wonder how, if at all, the foregoing might impact the pending Blanchard lawsuit. EOM
____________________________

"Thank you, masked man" for that contribution of thought.
Operative
(03/02/2003; 12:28:09 MDT - Msg ID: 98731)
@ Sir Powell
Thank you for your show of concern and advice offered and gratefully taken. I have a meeting next week with the CPA on this years taxes and planned on informing him of the upcoming crises. ( I made some money, oh no is right). Your post this morning was yet another example of the caliber of people who surround this table. It has been an honor to sit, oft times in the corner, on my stole and learn from others who know much more than I. And yes, I play at the paper games in order to acquire additional wealth. "Profits" from the paper game are quickly moved into the physical and holding for a long time. As in, I hope someday my children and grandchildren will benefit and think kindly of the "old man". And with the many mistakes during my years, perhaps this pile of gold and silver will redeem some of my younger years errors.

In retrospect, I regret the earlier posting. I certainly did not want to come across as bragging. I was not. At the time I was furious at the treatment Black Blade was recieving at the other message board. The Irish tempter rose up upon seeing a good man unjustly maligned with his only "crime" being trying to help others at no charge no less. I started to write that post with some distance from myself by writing, if you had purchased those calls...etc. Then I decided, no, I wanted them to know that someone had actually done so and profited from listening to BB. The point I was trying to make was that BB had been gracious enough to suggest that energy prices would rise. His lead ( I tend to listen to people who have experience in any given area) was followed up by some research and as luck would have it, a good trade was made. It will be my pleasure, and duty, to gladly trade the FRN's for the real deal, physical gold and silver. Each gold or silver eagle is a vote, a message sent, to stop the madness, to stop the FRN printing press, and bring our country back to some form of reality. Vote as often as you can.

It was also a pleasure to play a game that was more open and honest than I am used to seeing in the PM's. Demand/Supply was at work and one could witness first hand the operation of a "free market" in action. No hidden power, no Central Bank, to slam dunk the action. Quite a refreashing experience and gives hope that one day Gold and Silver will be set free of it's "bondings". With all that is happening in the world today, and with the solid track record of gold last year underpinning us, perhaps the time will be soon. We wait patiently, and watch.

Best to you on this fine Sunday afternoon.
Operative
ElGordo
(03/02/2003; 13:27:24 MDT - Msg ID: 98732)
Another way to wage war-Forged US treasury bonds
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,6057256%255E13762,00.htmlTwo trillion dollar arrest

March 01, 2003

POLICE have arrested a man with two trillion US dollars in forged US treasury bonds in his possession, police said yesterday.
The 63-year-old man was arrested late yesterday in a raid on his flat in downtown Hong Kong.

Sixteen boxes, each containing 4000 forged bonds, were also seized.

Police raided 47 locations where suspected fake bank documents including standby letters of credit, bank guarantees, US Federal Reserve bonds and promissory notes were seized.

The Daily Telegraph
____________________
I wonder if any foreign government or terror group is involved
in this operation? Seems like it should be a bigger media story.

kahulik
(03/02/2003; 13:35:28 MDT - Msg ID: 98733)
*** $340 ***
The price of gold needs to complete its ABC down. We probably will bottom around this $340 price.
As for the sale of gold by the bank of Portugal, who is the buyer? We always hear about the gold sales, but never the buyers. Could it be that the banks just sell their gold to each other so that the sale can be announced to the public? Would the purpose of this be to drive the gold price down? Would this result in speculator -paper longs losing their shirts? I find it difficult to believe that any of the banks have actually removed physical gold from their vaults. Just a thought.
GoldnSilver2002
(03/02/2003; 14:26:17 MDT - Msg ID: 98734)
Speical notice from head of propaganda..all is well,goldbugs are nuts!
If the usd rallies,if the war is quick,if there is no terrorism,if there is no war,if there are no scanadals/bankrupcies,if oil goes down after the war then all the record debt will just magically disappear.What is wrong with you people,the time to invest in the down jones and nasdog has never been better.We have rising inflation,rising debt,rising unemployment and war/terrorism.We have geo political concerns,japan(number 2 economy) is broke,germany(number 3) in its worst state since ww2,argentina,venezuela,columbia,brazil.I just dont understand why people dont understand the market will just magically go up after the war based solely on no fundamental reasons whatsover.Dont worry about the middle east,north korea,iraq or the soon to collapse saudi arabian monarchy.We have russia,france ,germany and china all upset with the us and a printing machine running like no tommmorow.Now we find out trillions of usd are forgeries.

All this confuses me,dont you know wall st never lies, doesnt use false accounting(proforma) and they only have your best interest at heart.The real estate bubble can never pop,and oh ya so what if taxes are going up,thats a good thing isnt it?People are so silly,you would think by now they would know,gold is bad since it is the best performing asset for 2 years and if they just stick their head in the sand all this will go away.People argue just because the markets are going down 3 years running we are in a recession and that it may go down a fourth year.Cant you people see how much good news this is.Forget about history the world started in 1990 so thats as far back as any model should go,these nuts buying gold.They should be buying strong investments which are trustworthy like enron,worldcom,ual,tyco,adlephia,k mart etc.

Gold is bad because we cant print it'service charge it or make it disappear from your accounts.Dont you want big govt overspending your hard earned tax dollars and inflating away any savings you have.Dont you like fixed inflation numbers?I mean ,just think ,this is just the beginning of all the good news.So your retirement fund is losing 38 percent per year,just think in a couple of years it will be zero and then you dont have to worry about it anymore.What do people need money for anyway?You can feed your childern with debt,clothe them ,house them and put them through school all with debt.People have become confused and forgotten how good debt is.What will it take before you thank us?100 percent inflation and 80 percent taxes?Dont you see all the kids can just get a job at starbucks and pay 80 percent taxes and all will be well.The longer living elderly population can sleep safely at night knowing the next generation will gladly have no home,no children and no future just to support our pie in the sky dream?They will never rebel,their morals which we have instilled in them would never allow them to hate or despise us.

All thse silly goldbugs talking about history,fundamentals,free markets and fraud.They should know by now,if we just ignore it,it will all go away.



written by the head of propaganda.
ElGordo
(03/02/2003; 15:08:42 MDT - Msg ID: 98735)
Car bomb in Venezuela
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030302/venezuela_bomb_2.htmlCARACAS, Venezuela, March 2 (Reuters) - A car bomb exploded early on Sunday in the western Venezuelan oil city of Maracaibo, destroying three cars and damaging homes and a local office of the U.S. oil company Chevron Texaco (NYSE:CVX - News), police said.

NEMO me impune lacessit
(03/02/2003; 16:09:16 MDT - Msg ID: 98736)
Do You think they found it all ????
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,6057256%255E13762,00.htmlNEMO
Clink!
(03/02/2003; 16:56:36 MDT - Msg ID: 98737)
@Nemo
Why, do you think they missed all the gold depository certificates ?!
Sundeck
(03/02/2003; 18:32:01 MDT - Msg ID: 98738)
Top manager predicts a depression
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/5290493.htmSome views of a successful boutique money manager from Florida...

Snip:

"

Since our last conversation in March of 2000, zero-coupon treasuries are up 43.5 percent. The S&P 500 Index is down 41 percent. He said long-term Treasury bond yields would drop from 6.15 percent then to 4.6 percent. They are now paying about 4.7 percent.

O'Higgins manages $200 million at his boutique investment firm in Miami Beach that caters to clients with assets of at least $1 million. He's been a top money manager for more than 20 years and has written best-selling investment books, Beating the Dow and Beating the Dow with Bonds. He's best known for his Dogs of the Dow theory, which worked well for quite a while when the market was still going up.

Today, O'Higgins won't touch a Dow stock or almost any other stock at current prices.

...

Right now, O'Higgins is only interested in gold, which he sees as undervalued and heading up because of deflation. ''Because it's real money, because it has held its value for thousands of years, because it's not subject to the manipulations of government or central banks or dishonest corporate executives,'' he says.

What's more, gold goes up when stocks go down. In 1929-1932, he notes that gold rose 69 percent. And indeed, in the last 12 months, it is up 20 percent. Yet its price is still far below what it traded for in 1980: $850, or roughly 2 � times higher than today's roughly $350 an ounce. Global supplies of gold, too, are dwindling.

...

He makes a convincing case, in charts and newspaper clippings, for his thought that there's little that will stop this downturn until the speculative bubble in stocks and spending is completely deflated.

It is not so, yet. For example, he notes that consumer spending has dropped in every recession since the 1950s, but not in this one. Stock valuations remain high, despite the long downturn.

"

Sundeck:

I guess it is a lot easier for the boutiques to move their assets around and take advantage of relatively small markets like gold and gold stocks. The problem the big firms have is that there is no game big enough at the moment in which they can all play...and win. The strategy is to minimise the rate at which public disillusionment (with recent successful investment strategies) sets in. Minimise outflows at all costs! The wise ones will get into gold while the price is still low.

:-)
Black Blade
(03/02/2003; 18:59:33 MDT - Msg ID: 98739)
Global: When Shocks Matter
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030228-fri.html
Snippit:

Not all shocks are alike. Nor do they exert comparable impacts on macro economic performance. Shock analysis has two critical dimensions � the magnitude and duration of the shock itself, as well the pre-shock condition of the affected economy. On both counts, the oil shock of 2003 is extremely worrisome. That leads me to conclude that the risks of renewed recession in the US and in the US-centric global economy are high and rising.

There are times when it pays to be overly-simplistic on the global macro call. This is one of those times. Three key points are most obvious to me insofar as the cyclical prognosis for the world economy is concerned: First, in a US-centric world, the global call is basically a call on the US economy. Second, the US is in the midst of a classic oil shock. And, third, that shock has occurred at a point of maximum vulnerability � when a US-centric industrial world had slowed to a virtual standstill. The conclusion is inescapable: The recession warning model that I have long advocated is now flashing a serious alert for the US and for the US-centric global economy. A stalling economy lacks the cyclical immunities that cushion it from an unexpected blow. A stalling economy that has been hit by a shock is a recipe for recession. Unfortunately, it's that simple.

It's educated guesswork as to where oil prices are headed. It's a painful reality check to see where they have come from. Crude oil (WTI spot) prices have now pierced the $37 threshold � fully 89% above the level prevailing in January 2002. Moreover, as of the close of February 27, oil prices have now equaled the highs of $37.20 hit on September 20, 2000, that played an important role in triggering the recession of 2001. With oil inventories low, disruptions in Venezuela lingering, and war looming, the risk is that oil prices will move higher before they begin their fairly typical post-shock mean reversion. But those risks lie in a murky and uncertain future. At this point in time, the facts speak for themselves � an oil shock has already occurred.

In and of themselves, shocks don't always cause recessions. That's where pre-shock resilience comes into play � the economy's ability to withstand the blow of a shock. Sadly, the industrial world is far from being resilient at this point in time. The world's three largest economies � the United States, Japan, and Germany � were all in lousy shape as 2002 came to an end. The US economy inched ahead at just a 0.7% annual rate in 4Q02, and Germany's growth rate was estimated at "zero." Ironically, Japan was the strongest of the lot, with a +2.0% sequential annualized growth, but most have been quick to dismiss this estimate as statistical hocus-pocus for an otherwise weak Japanese economy (see Takehiro Sato's February 24 dispatch, "The National Accounts vs. Reality"). To me, the conclusion is inescapable: With the industrial world at its stall speed, the current oil shock � to say nothing of the related confidence shock � hurts a good deal more than would be had been the case in a more vigorous growth climate.


Black Blade: Stephen Roach points out that the energy crisis will crush the global economy. With oil production at near capacity and energy in general at high cost there will be no "economic recovery" this year, in the "second half", or next year.

R Powell
(03/02/2003; 19:11:33 MDT - Msg ID: 98740)
What did that masked man say?
TownCrier, may I restate the words of the masked man in 98730 to see if I have it right...

The bullion banks and Barrick set up a postponable forward sale arrangement in order to create a visible means of repayment for gold owed by the bullion banks to central banks. This allowed the central banks to keep the gold on their records as reserves.

So, with gold still on the books, the central banks are happy to get some interest on the lent out gold.

The bullion banks profit from the interest spread and have the option to call for at least fiat payment, if necessary, from Barrick. The "if necessary" might apply if lease rate renewals became too expensive.

Barrick has profited from the forward sales and may defer delivery into the forward sales for as long as necessary but may be subject to either a fiat repayment or, after notification, delivery set for a date 14 years forward. Also, Barrick is not under any margin requirements.

It may be that everyone involved benefited from this arrangement with the only risk being the actual availability of physical should the leases ever be terminated. That is, if physical was actually moved as opposed to the paper sale by the bullion banks of leased central bank gold. Perhaps both GATA and CPM are partially correct with 5,000 tonnes physically gone and paper liens for another 10,000 tonnes? Whatever the number and whether sold with physical delivery or on paper, the offsetting of these leases should move the POG.

If half the central bank gold is gone, I would guess that (with disclosure) the POG would move much higher but I've thought the same for years with silver and now wonder if a shortage in immediately deliverable silver will be necessary to really awaken the silver market. I know there is a world of difference between gold and silver but still wonder...
Thoughts?
Rich
Black Blade
(03/02/2003; 19:23:53 MDT - Msg ID: 98741)
Gasoline Price at a Record, With Drive Season Still Months Away
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/nrg2/topnew/enews.cgi?ptitle=Oil%20News&touch=1&T=enews_story.ht&s=EmJeaUbGttXVsaRY4
Snippit:

Chicago, March 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail gasoline prices, up 45 percent in the past year, have further to climb, analysts said. After all it's only March. Gasoline prices are at a record for this time of year, and they typically rise from now until summer as weather warms and people drive more. The retail gasoline price has risen an average of 15 percent from February to May the past five years, according to government data. ``I think you can expect to see steadily rising prices,'' said Ed Silliere, vice president of risk management at Energy Merchant LLC in New York, which markets gasoline and heating oil to local distributors. ``The gasoline picture looks like it's going to be very lean for quite some time.'' U.S. inventories of gasoline are below a year ago and falling, while supplies of crude oil have been pinched for three months by a strike in Venezuela. ``This is the time of year when typically you have high stocks and you're building,'' said Steven Strongin, head of commodities research at Goldman, Sachs & Co. ``This year, it's hard to figure out how you're going to build them.'' Refiners are passing along the rising cost of crude, which this week touched $39.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest level since Iraq occupied Kuwait in 1990. ``Crude-oil inventories are dangerously low,'' said Phil Flynn, a senior energy trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``We are only one small problem away from the minimum amount needed to operate the nation's refineries.''


Black Blade: Refiners are still working to build heating oil supply before maintenance shutdowns prior to gasoline production (various reformulated blends) for driving season. Looks like high gasoline prices will persist.
Sundeck
(03/02/2003; 19:56:22 MDT - Msg ID: 98742)
Dollar up, but Japan intervention effect fading
http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/retirement/newswire/2003/03/02/rtr894552.htmlSnip:

"
TOKYO, March 3 (Reuters) - The dollar edged up against the yen and the euro in early Asian trade on Monday, adding to gains made after Japanese authorities revealed late last week that they had intervened in the market to stem the yen's further rise.

But traders said the confirmation was not a surprise and it was unlikely to weaken the yen much further.

"Everybody suspected they had intervened and the confirmation only made it official," said a trader at a major Japanese bank. "The market is not going to trade on this."

The Bank of Japan revealed in a monthly report that it had sold 513 billion yen ($4.34 billion) in February's interventions compared with 678 billion yen in January.

The Ministry of Finance confirmed that it had asked the BOJ to step into the market a few times in late February and that it bought both dollars and euros, but the euro buying had been "far less" than the buying of dollars for yen.

"

Sundeck: Buying about $5B per month to prop up the dollar. How long is Japan going to keep growing dollar reserves?
mikal
(03/02/2003; 20:21:34 MDT - Msg ID: 98743)
@Sundeck
Re: "How long is Japan going to keep buying dollar reserves?"
Choose from one or more of the following multiple choice answers:
a) Until they run out of trees
b) Until oil is priced in Euros
c) Until oil is priced in Dinars
d) Until it is no longer fashionable to do so
e) Until the next Tsunammi, earthquake or other natural or manmade catastrophe
f) None of the above
a nation of one
(03/02/2003; 20:31:36 MDT - Msg ID: 98744)
Reply to Dollar Bill (03/02/03; 09:19:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98720)

To fully appreciate my postings, you need to understand that I am not formally schooled in any branch of finance but have been very interested in stock markets since about the age of 17, and I have eagerly, and consistently, kept up with it since then. That was about 45 years ago. In addition to this, my ideas are flavored with a tendency to prefer unconventional beliefs, not just to be different, but because what most people believe seems to me to be profoundly deficient, in terms of its relation to reality. I don't condemn the people themselves for this. I just don't agree with their ideas. There is a surprising reason for this, but I won't go into it. Further, my intention is to understand and to convey understandings about the way market really work. It is because of this mix of ingredients, in my style, that my postings might sometimes seem uninformed, for what most people know and take for granted I often have discarded, or have not even seen. And because my activities have always tended to be outside the norm -I guess that's one way to say it, since they are often perceived that way by others- what is typically considered to be established wisdom and sure knowledge, I consider to be neither certain nor wise. Often, I have gotten into trouble because of this, on account of being mistaken. But there have indeed been times -and this is what makes it worthwhile- when I have understood something in a new way and it was such an improvement it was shocking. The reason I post at all, knowing that sometimes I will appear to be an idiot, is to pass these on, so that I will have some reason for my existence. Of course it is no coincidence that my interests are currently concentrated in gold, and that many others here at this forum are also thought of as 'bugs'.
Sundeck
(03/02/2003; 21:24:08 MDT - Msg ID: 98745)
Mikal #98743 - Japan's dollar reserves
Mikal

Option (a)? Nope! I thought they had already run out of trees. Turned them first into rice farms and then into golf courses. :-) Instead of paper, 'though, Japan could use polymer notes (like Australia) made from imported coal or petroleum. At the moment they are able to buy lots of petroeum and coal with their increasing dollar reserves. However, countries that provide Japan with oil and coal are going to start squeeling about contracts written in dollars because those country's "commodity currencies" are appreciating against the dollar, which means they get less and less in terms of their own currencies for their exports.

Option (b)? Definitely a goer! Perhaps this is why Japan is buying some Euros along with its pile of dollars; just in case the tectonic plates lurch suddenly, the dollar is subducted and Euro heaves further into view, hot and smoking, but ready for colonisation!

Option (c)? Yes, an outside chance. Worth including in your quinella or trifecta bet. After all, the financial plates are on the move and separating, and more than one may be a viable place to store your assets. So far as I know, it is not ordained that there be just ONE reserve currency for the world? Gold could be important in a Dinar scenario.

Option (d)? Ahhh...yes. Fashion! It is easier to conform with the fashion than run against it. But fashion is fickle. Once some subtle changes occur the herd switches rapidly to the new regime. But not anyone can be the instrument of change. And also the herd has to be tired of the old regime. We are seeing some leaders in the new fashion, are we not? Russia? Malaysia? Small, but influential fashion houses. Yes, I see fashion playing a role.

Option (e)? A major act of god? God forbid! However, if one should occur it could provide an "excuse" for Japan to restructure parts of its economy of necessity, in ways less dependent upon exports to the US and more dependent upon "domestic consumption" and/or self-sufficiency. It could "relieve the inertia for change" in Japan.

Option (f)? It's hard to imagine that none of the above factors will play a role, but there may well be additional ones.

:-)

Sundeck
cyberbat
(03/02/2003; 21:30:10 MDT - Msg ID: 98746)
What price Gold
I just took a look at the gold charts and noticed we are again down a hefty $3.50 oz. With that in mind does anyone have an idea as to when the fed and hedgers (both are joined at the hip) would be satisfied with a price that they have papered down gold to ? 300.00 may be too dangerous to short but would 320 to 325 be about right ?
I've played this game for 20 years and just about figured the only way to make any money is when gold has been shorted just a hair too much then one could go long.
Any thoughts or speculation from anyone on what the right price is for the enemy?
Gandalf the White
(03/02/2003; 21:49:34 MDT - Msg ID: 98747)
ATTENTION Sir Kahulik ---- RULE related to why YOU bought the .....
kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)
===
3) MOST IMPORTANTLY, your "confession" as an entry in the ESSAY portion of the contest must accompany the Price prognostication.

An essay contest in answering the following (in more than 30 words):
"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . ."
===
I shall await your "confession" before accepting your POG entry !
<;-)
Sundeck
(03/02/2003; 21:56:48 MDT - Msg ID: 98748)
Cyberbat #98746 What price gold?
Cyberbat,

Good question.

Without inside information it is impossibile to predict the machinations of the big players.

However, FWIW gold has followed a fairly close (statistical)relationship with the USDX over the last couple of years. With the USDX at 100, I feel it is unlikely that the POG will stray below $340 for more than a few days at a time without recovering.

As I see it, with the USDX at 100, "fair value" for gold is between about $340 and $370.

As always IMO only and DYODD

Cheers

:-)
Dollar Bill
(03/02/2003; 22:04:51 MDT - Msg ID: 98749)
A Nation of One
Greeting ANoO,
Out of the box thinking is something that can and does work in your favor. No surprise then that you found yourself here, where folks strive for answers that are not readily provided in many other places. Heck, any comments you make
from left or any field are a welcome part of the wild wide view we get here of the unfolding, barely in control, momentous, very relevant titanic struggle for economic advantage.
Black Blade
(03/02/2003; 22:09:03 MDT - Msg ID: 98750)
Rising oil prices could sink economy running on empty
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/134644367_econoil02.html
Snippit:

The sign in front of a gas station in Pacifica, Calif., is evidence of the current spike in oil prices, which has contributed to a global economic slowdown. The most common cause of recessions, a surge in oil prices, is afflicting the global economy again. Just as they have before every American downturn over the past 40 years, energy costs have increased significantly in the past year, capped by a sharp spike since December. With more money being spent on gasoline and heating fuel, economic growth has slowed in the United States and Europe, and the uneven recovery that began in late 2001 is facing perhaps its biggest threat yet. "The economy is extremely fragile," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, a research company in West Chester, Pa. "We've got some real problems if this drags on for any length of time." Since World War II, every time that oil prices have increased by at least 60 percent, a recession has occurred in the United States, with the exception of a one-month blip in oil prices in 1987. The current annual increase is similar in size to the jumps of late 1990, when a recession was starting, and the summer of 2000, nine months before another began. Higher energy costs reduce economic growth by effectively forcing families and businesses to send more money to a small number of oil-producing countries, leaving less for goods and services that create jobs at home. About one-third of Americans say the recent spike has caused them "financial hardship," according to a recent Gallup poll. More than one-quarter said they thought gas prices would be near their current level six months from now, and about one-half said they would increase. "I think it's going to get much worse," Teri Chavez, a public-relations executive in Denver, said as she filled the tank of her blue Volvo station wagon last week. "Does it mean that I'm going to stop driving? No. But I might think twice before I take my car up in the mountains."

Black Blade: It's going to get much worse as inventories tighten and production declines. The current recession could last for years.

a nation of one
(03/02/2003; 22:09:27 MDT - Msg ID: 98751)
Reply to cyberbat (03/02/03; 21:30:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98746)
your interesting remark: "...I've played this game for 20 years and just about figured the only way to make any money is when gold has been shorted just a hair too much then one could go long. Any thoughts or speculation from anyone on what the right price is for the enemy?"

--I expect 325 or lower, then back, maybe. I think 317 is below the most reasonable level of support. Somewhere around 330 should be the new support, if the rule is true that resistance levels become support levels when the price moves above them.
a nation of one
(03/02/2003; 22:12:41 MDT - Msg ID: 98752)
To Dollar Bill (03/02/03; 22:04:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 98749)

"Heck, any comments you make ... are ... welcome ...."

--Thanks. I'll keep that in mind.
a nation of one
(03/02/2003; 22:27:25 MDT - Msg ID: 98753)
pog

Sorry about my negative note. I'm often wrong. But I don't think there is any reason for genuine pessimism, even if my expectations are correct. What seems important to me is that people's general interest in gold's potential is picking up. I think I am seeing an ongoing, steady, long term increase in this factor, which I believe is one of the most reliable, and one of the most easily recognizable, indicators. Internet financial pages, newspapers, magazines, tv news shows have all made increasingly positive implicative statements referring to gold. These are minor referrences. But there is no question that big money fully understands that gold is headed higher. The public is informed last. And it is informed in a controlled way, according to the interests of strongly monied hands, such that, as gold heats up, more and more of the public will be drawn in, in increasing numbers. This same thing happens in stocks and -I suspect- in every similar type market from time to time.
Gandalf the White
(03/02/2003; 22:32:40 MDT - Msg ID: 98754)
TAAAA TAAAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlUP-DATE of Listings as of SUNDAY 3/2/03 22:30 Denver Time !

VISIT the CONTEST Link above for ALL the data.

NOTE to CONTEST entrants -- Please check to see if your "Prognostication" number has been taken in any newly entered guess, AFTER the above posting time, just before you submit yours, so that there are not any duplications !

**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)

**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (02/28/03; 06:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98581)
**** $385.4 **** slingshot (02/27/03; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98555)

**** $381.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (02/27/03; 10:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98525

**** $378.0 **** Mountain Top (02/27/03; 17:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98543)

**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)

**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)

**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)

**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)

**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)

**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)

Apr 03 HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 Yesterday's Open Interest 107869

Sir Kevin$ is now "King of the Hill" on 2/28/03
Dollar Bill
(03/02/2003; 23:39:18 MDT - Msg ID: 98755)
Misetich, and gata folks
Hi Misetich,
I did want to give you the last word option, and you did pose a question or two, here is a link that was an offshoot of the Town Crier post below. Relates to one issue you raised.
--"The gold price had previously risen by about $ 80 in summer 1993. Then the FED and the Treasury decided to suppress the gold price in order to benefit the banking system, which would otherwise have suffered huge losses as a result of short positions. A further objective was to defend the US dollar as a reserve currency within the central banking system.
Presumably, the gold price manipulation had a bearing on exchange rates, interest rates, indebtedness, money flows, the trade deficit, artificial wealth and the stock market bubble. Dimitri Speck"--
(This defense of the dollar as reserve currency mentioned above, is supported still by the Central Banks of the world and a recent gold sale by Portugal is a confirmation of that. It is my guess that the euro boys are not interested in a gold system either. If they were ever to somehow get reserve currency status, if they werent destroyed in the process, they would want the ability to deficit spend like we get to do here. They are not more honest, there is no evidence of that ! What in the world is bill murphy thinking? That some new dawn will come if the US drops the ball and as you say "the EU is the new superpower" actually happens? As the WHO song says, "here is the new boss, same as the old boss" And THEY will manipulate the gold price !
Why do you think they wont? One fiat to another, what gold utopia? It is part of that poorly thought out gata thinking.
Not only is history not a factor in the analysis, but the future beyond the supposed chaos is not analyzed !
Just that rooting for skyrocketing gold price.

Your recent post below was qoutes from.......
--"Mahathir Mohamad said;
?When we put too much value on a certain currency, it becomes very powerful and that currency actually works against us,?"--
(Mahathir might be shocked to discover that no matter what currency gets reserve currency duties, HIS country will be stuck in the same boat it is now.)
--"He added that since no nation would like ?just one single policeman in the world,? the Euro, yen or even gold should be used for transactions."--
(mahathir, the french and germans have no military ! And the yen? Forget it, none of the Japs neighbors want to see Japan as the big policeman. Gold? what, is he going to throw gold at evil doers? Hard to replace the US as world cop.)
--"There is nothing to back the US dollar other than people?s belief in it,? he added."--
(mahathir's theory on using gold for trade was debunked here within the last couple weeks convincingly. I guess his comments are his attempt to educate the Central Bankers of the world. I dont expect to see him holding a class at the next g-7 summit !)
Noble1
(03/02/2003; 23:50:59 MDT - Msg ID: 98756)
The Begining of the End of the NWO?
Seems that this fracture in the UN regarding the invasion of Iraq could result in US going it alone and would represent a major disregard for UN resolutions that would result in a major NWO setback. That's what has kept GB from going it alone. The NWO wants to represent a consensus not a dictum. Bush is a NWO kinda guy. What would happen if Saddam declared that there would be "nuclear disasters"(ala NK) around the world should we invade? We would be there tonight to everybodies delight(regardless of UN sayso) saving the world. The NWO outside of the USA would frown(and save face locally) but would accept the action. But nay, Saddam has acceded to our every demand. 150+ inspectors have had unimpeded access and turned up nothing. The problem is that he is cooperating! Oh, a few missiles that travel 95 instead of 85 miles or something like that. Big threat. He is destroying those missiles. What else are we fed? That his WMD float around the world hidden in ships on the high seas. Why have we not stopped and searched those ships as we did when we found the hidden N. Korean missiles? Our intelligence is capable of tracking every major vessel on the globe.
Don't get me wrong. Saddam is our enemy. We have had many international enemies in the past. But, we have not gone to war with them without direct provocation. This military action is not about disarmament(we can get that from current actions), it is about oil and USD dominance as the world's de facto reserve currency.
I think Turkey's USA/IMF/GrBr/NWO rejection may establish a negative precedant with regard to UN dictates. We(IMF) thought we could buy(control) anybody.
GrBr's old money is closely associated with our Fed, but their new money seems to want to lean toward the Euro. Major Euro participants prefer no war. Only the USA and it's closest of allies favor(will not dissapprove of) going in.
What's all this got to do with the price of tea in China(gold)? Well, the IMF/USD/paper dominance is being challenged by the establishment of the BIS/Euro/paper/GOLD players to compete on the same playing field. The Euro team understands that gold plays an important role with the Giants and is offering a gold kicker with their fiat.
These 30 ton transactions do not represent our(USAG)trades. The Giants are absorbing all that is offered at higher and higher prices. Producer hedges are being wound down. AG will be stepping down soon and leaving this USD mess to a fall guy. Unless, of course, we are willing to believe his old philosophy, as well as his recent verbage, that gold should play a role in US monetary policy. Perhaps that will be his saving legacy. To reestablish gold's monetary role and save the USD from oblivion. Given the respect he has, he could do it. I don't think a new guy could sell it.
Anyway, if we go in and whack Saddam, with UN approval, then happy days are here again. USD dominates(temporarily).
If we go in, without the UN's blessing:
1)we kick butt
A)world(UN) accepts=USD dominates(temporarily)
B)world(UN) whines=they lean toward euro/gold
2)we get involved in a drawn out urban/terrorist war
A)=B)=world will abandon us and we are SOL as far as USD is concerned
Any which way it goes, we're #$%^&*(.
People favor the underdog. If the USA has to go in to the later rounds fighting this war, the sentiment will quickly turn against us and we will find ourselves wanting. After all, what can the Arabs et. al. get from us for their oil that they can't get from Europe or Asia? A currency with intrinsic value? Ha Ha! They can demand and get what they want from us. We're lucky that their current regimes want what we have to offer. The Euro is not perfect but it's gold component does add some stability. The Euro members have everything to offer them except perhaps the military might. Wait a minute. We and the Euro block are supposed to be allies. We should not be comparing military might. Ah, times do change. The Arabs have indicated that they will only hang with us as long as we have UN backing. If we go in to Iraq without it, a mideast crisis seems assured. And what about Israel? Seems like they've been active but not getting much attention. I don't think the Euro block is as willing to back the Jewish interest as we are. Who will the Arabs favor in this situation? Can you blame them? Given all the aforementioned as well as our ongoing and increasing budget deficits, our ongoing and increasing current account deficit, as well as our ongoing and increasing national deficit, our dollar will succumb to these pressures. Regardless of the outcome of this military confrontation, our dollar is destined to weaken.
Enough of this rant. Can't think anymore. Time to go to bed. More Later.

Remember: While paper burns, gold only melts.
Topaz
(03/02/2003; 23:53:53 MDT - Msg ID: 98757)
cyberbat...what price Gold?
The trick imo is to regard "your" physical Gold as "priceless"... if you're talking about PoG then look no further than the timing of Dollar falls over the last 12 Mth's.
All things being equal, (no shocks) the next leg down will be May-June (PoG to 400)
It's designed to bolster repatriation of O/S currencies so the Q2 DoW reporting gets a kick along. They may even do it for Q1.

The way it's shaping though, I doubt "things" will remain "equal".
Trojan
(03/03/2003; 00:40:35 MDT - Msg ID: 98758)
@ Noble1 FAIR MEDIA ADVISORY
http://www.fair.org/press-releases/kamel.htmlI don't know if anyone posted this as yet. It came out on February 27TH. It is pretty important from the looks of it.

I guess it's gold related since if they blow up the Oil wells, gold might soar. Then again Saddam seems to be cooperating now.

Snippet:

FAIR �Fairness & Accuracy In Reporting
112 W. 27th Street � New York, NY 10001

MEDIA ADVISORY:
Star Witness on Iraq Said Weapons Were Destroyed
Bombshell revelation from a defector cited by White House and press

February 27, 2003
On February 24, Newsweek broke what may be the biggest story of the Iraq crisis. In a revelation that "raises questions about whether the WMD [weapons of mass destruction] stockpiles attributed to Iraq still exist," the magazine's issue dated March 3 reported that the Iraqi weapons chief who defected from the regime in 1995 told U.N. inspectors that Iraq had destroyed its entire stockpile of chemical and biological weapons and banned missiles, as Iraq claims.

Until now, Gen. Hussein Kamel, who was killed shortly after returning to Iraq in 1996, was best known for his role in exposing Iraq's deceptions about how far its pre-Gulf War biological weapons programs had advanced. But Newsweek's John Barry-- who has covered Iraqi weapons inspections for more than a decade-- obtained the transcript of Kamel's 1995 debriefing by officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.N. inspections team known as UNSCOM.
Inspectors were told "that after the Gulf War, Iraq destroyed all its chemical and biological weapons stocks and the missiles to deliver them," Barry wrote. All that remained ere "hidden blueprints, computer disks, microfiches" and production molds. The weapons were destroyed secretly, in order to hide their existence from inspectors, in the hopes of someday resuming production after inspections had finished. The CIA and MI6 were told the same story, Barry reported, and "a military aide who defected with Kamel... backed Kamel's assertions about the destruction of WMD stocks."

But these statements were "hushed up by the U.N. inspectors" in order to "bluff Saddam into disclosing still more."

CIA spokesperson Bill Harlow angrily denied the Newsweek report. "It is incorrect, bogus, wrong, untrue," Harlow told Reuters (2/24/03) the day the report appeared.

But on Wednesday (2/26/03), a complete copy of the Kamel transcript-- an internal UNSCOM/IAEA document stamped "sensitive"-- was obtained by Glen Rangwala, the Cambridge University analyst who in early February revealed that Tony Blair's "intelligence dossier" was plagiarized from a student thesis. This transcript can be seen at http://www.fair.org/press-releases/kamel.pdf.

In the transcript (p. 13), Kamel says bluntly: "All weapons-- biological, chemical, missile, nuclear, were destroyed."

Who is Hussein Kamel?
Kamel is no obscure defector. A son-in-law of Saddam Hussein, his departure from Iraq carrying crates of secret documents on Iraq's past weapons programs was a major turning point in the inspections saga.

Trojan: Rather interesting
Black Blade
(03/03/2003; 00:53:41 MDT - Msg ID: 98759)
Hints of rising inflation in slack economy stir memories of 1970s stagflation
http://www.canada.com/ottawa/story.asp?id={1F5076F3-4B2F-4724-8EC2-738CCC799C57}
Snippit:

NEW YORK (AP) - No sooner did hints of rising inflation emerge than the muttering began on Wall Street about the possible return of dreaded stagflation. It was last seen three decades ago, when rising inflation, failing growth and surging unemployment crippled the North American economy. No one would welcome its return. It's not that the economy faces this grim scenario just yet. But a prolonged war, continued increases in energy prices or the economy's failure to recharge soon might make stagflation a possibility in the not-so-distant future. In periods of stagflation, economic growth is feeble but inflation roars ahead - as it normally would during times of rapid expansion. It's a term that was coined in the 1970s after the OPEC oil embargo caused a dramatic surge in the cost of crude oil and gasoline and sent inflation soaring. "High inflation pushed up interest rates and eroded buying power, and as a result consumer and business spending remained soft, preventing the economy from growing," said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis. "It was a vicious combination of factors." Every few years, fears of stagflation return.

Black Blade: Stagflation looks like a real possibility these days.

Malfleur
(03/03/2003; 01:35:00 MDT - Msg ID: 98760)
Spot
Spot going haywire this afternoon in the Far East. Went up 3 bucks, down 3 bucks and up 3 bcks again in the space of about an hour. No news of anything dire on the wire yet thouh.
Caradoc
(03/03/2003; 01:36:59 MDT - Msg ID: 98761)
Something odd
We have energy prices rising, with unleaded going for over two dollars per gallon and with natural gas raising the price of electricity. Because Turkey has backed out, the logistics of an Iraq war just became more expensive. North Korea is threatening "horrible nuclear disaster" and al Quaeda has plans to crash hijacked airliners into the the Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbor.

All these current events are taking place against an economic backdrop that includes the following:
* 401K plans in ruins and people starting to realize that their company's pension funds (or their state teachers' retirement fund or whatever) were invested in the those same wretched stocks
* Greenspan saying positive things about gold
* Between the euro and the dinar, some probability that oil will be priced in something other than dollars. Which says there'll be less demand for the dollar. Which -- if supply and demand still works -- says the dollar will become worth less.

Putting it all together, the US government will have to print even more currency than it would have to pay in the near term for things like Iraq and in the longer term for things like social security checks for baby boomers.

With all this going on and being realized by more and more people, the price of gold is DOWN??? Go figure.




Black Blade
(03/03/2003; 01:53:15 MDT - Msg ID: 98762)
Gold Recovering Tonight
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/charts/cdcharttcl?symm=GLD.FX1&hist=1&dbrushwidth=1&charttype=1&gd1=na&gd2=na&benchmark=∈fos=3∈dtype1=0∈dtype2=0&volumen=2
Gold has nearly recovered its losses in Asian trade overnight. Gold was under pressure after it was learned that Japan in a desperate bid to salvage its imploding economy has been buying dollars and euros, and selling worthless yen last month. The situation in Japan is becoming desperate as the insolvent banking sector is on the verge of collapse. This should get interesting as the story unfolds.

- Black Blade
Sundeck
(03/03/2003; 03:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 98763)
''Shooting the money changers''
http://yellowtimes.org/article.php?sid=1114&mode=threadℴ=0Snips:
"
By Paul Harris
YellowTimes.org Columnist (Canada)

(YellowTimes.org) � After World War II, a conference at Bretton Woods pegged the value of gold at U.S. $35 per ounce. That artificially established number had the virtue of a fixed target against which the currencies and the productivity of the world's nations could be measured. This allowed for economic stability and for fair and easily understandable international trade.

In one of his most disastrous moves as President of the United States, Richard Nixon abandoned the "gold standard" and allowed the American dollar to float against everyone else's currency. Because of the huge value of American productivity, the U.S. dollar soon became the de facto standard against which everything else was measured. But it was a moving target. To what this has led is 30 or so years of currency speculation that has been a total disaster for all but the strongest players.
...
Currency trading dwarfs all other financial transactions. The daily global volume of currency transactions is nearly $1.5 trillion. It is estimated that 80-90 percent of those transactions have nothing to do with the exchange of goods or services or productivity or exploration or development; they are just speculation. Kind of like an international game of craps.
...
Global financial speculative behavior has become rampant. Large sums of money are now able to move largely uncontrolled and untaxed around the globe in search of the highest possible return in the shortest possible time. This makes all currencies unstable, particularly those that have been left to float. It makes the financial positions of the smaller or developing countries uncertain and they spend so much of their meager resources trying to protect themselves that they never have the opportunity to get ahead.

Because this speculation is so rampant and so invisible, the possibility of attacks on a country's currency are very real; control of a country's economy by outside sources who usually have no interest in that country is relatively common; a country can suffer a financial crisis totally outside its ability to manage.
...
There are certainly some moral implications to all of this. Wealth that is earned through work is good and desirable; wealth that arises solely from gambling, as currency speculation surely is, is not. The powerful grip that currency trading and currency speculation exercises over global, regional, and national economies is an indication of how little importance is accorded to the fundamental question of social justice. Essentially, human greed has been institutionalized and legitimized.
..."

Sundeck: A brief overview of international currency speculation...worth a browse for anyone new to the idea.



Black Blade
(03/03/2003; 03:22:14 MDT - Msg ID: 98764)
Gold Can Afford To Wait While The Tide Inevitably Turns Against the Weakening US Dollar.
http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2003/March-2003/dollar030303.htm
Snippit:

At the moment the US borrows about US$200 million a day from the rest of the world to cover its savings gap. This sum is bound to rise as a result of the current military expenditure budget and the rise will probably accelerate once the total obligations incurred by the US administration round the world are revealed. Why would anyone want to lend to a country whose debts are rising and whose currency is weakening? Already foreigners are reducing their holdings of dollars and dollar denominated debts and the trickle will become a flood as the true situation emerges. And this is where gold comes into its own. The story is told of the Afghanistan war lord who threw dollars back to the Americans and demanded gold before his troops would fight. Maybe the countries in the Middle East will stop accepting America's depreciating dollar IOUs and demand gold. What a turn-up that would be for a country who banks were in the forefront of the campaign waged over the past twenty or more years to stigmatise gold as a barbarous relic.

Black Blade: As the US dollar loses respect in the world dollar reserves are more likely to be replaced with something of value like precious metals.

Sundeck
(03/03/2003; 03:37:58 MDT - Msg ID: 98765)
Duty cut to wipe out gold contraband
http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=79257Snip:

"
The 60 per cent reduction in the duty on gold in this year's budget will practically wipe out smuggling of gold to India. This will also have a ripple effect in the form of a slow-down in hawala money to India.

A major part of the smuggling of gold from Dubai is being financed by hawala operators who, in turn, would need dirhams back in Dubai to continue smuggling.

Thus, the slowdown in smuggling could transfer to a corresponding slowdown of hawala. The 2003-2004 Indian budget presented on Friday by Finance Minister Jaswant Singh, along with other cuts in duties, cuts the import duty on gold from Rs250 to Rs100 per 10 grammes.

The Indian government through its earlier move to allow non-resident Indians to bring into India gold up to 10 kilos had already dealt a blow to the smugglers.

NRIs are allowed to bring in 10 kilos of gold as part of their baggage once in six months provided they have stayed abroad for a continuous six months.

According to Haji Abdul Razak Yaqoob, chairman of the ARY Group, the new move will bring an end to smuggling because the new duty structure will render smuggling non-rewarding.

"

Sundeck: Reduction in duty on gold, on balance, will probably lead to slightly lower prices to Indian consumers.
DummyANI
(03/03/2003; 04:36:11 MDT - Msg ID: 98766)
Mikal #98743 - Japan's dollar reserves
http://quote.yahoo.co.jp/q?s=8301.q&d=3mThe value of BOJ (Bank of Japan ) is rapidly devaluated at the stock market, and today�fs close price is 45,500 Yen/share.
Mikal

Option (a)? Absolutely Yes. I learned from this site that Japan is prohibited to buy gold. So it is very clear who gained very cheap gold from UK gold, Portuguese gold, and the lowest cheap bottom gold selled out from Barrick. The winner is FRB, who knows Barrick�fs bargain-sale very precisely.
D-Ani.
Boilermaker
(03/03/2003; 05:41:41 MDT - Msg ID: 98767)
Turks Dumping Stocks
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^XU100&d=c&t=5d&l=on&z=b&q=lLooks like Turkish investors were expecting the $30billion grants and loan guarantees to be approved. Istanbul market down 10%. You just can't trust those damn politicians.

Boilermaker
DummyANI
(03/03/2003; 07:42:11 MDT - Msg ID: 98768)
The collapse of Japanese Government Bond will happen in very near futures.
The yield of Japanese Government Bond is 0.77 percent at present, and this is the lowest level in the world history.
The direct undertake of Government Bond by the Central Bank (Bank of Japan ) is prohibited by the law in Japan. But Japanese commercial banks have very serious troubles. For examples, at the first stage, they have failed in the stock market at 1990s from 38900Yen to 8300Yen in Nikkei225. Then at the second stage, they have failed in the real estates market. And they have no-cut the rotten real estates, and further withdrawn cash from the loan customers.
At the third stage, they cannot find out the promising loan customers , they have desperately bought Japanese Government Bonds. So that the yield of Japanese Government Bond is 0.77 percent at present, and this is the lowest level in the world history. The yield of Japanese Government Bond cannot be lowered to the more lower level by any means in the near futures. At present, they cannot afford to a liquidity of money in the market, so that, BOJ starts to buy Japanese Government Bonds from the commercial banks. This is a kind of the direct undertake of Government Bond by the Central Bank, because at first any commercial banks bought the Government Bond, but they very quickly resale the Government Bond to the Central Bank. Consequently, the Government Bond bought by BOJ will be inevitably devaluated from the market, because the yield of 0.77 percent cannot be supported over two or three years by any means.
D-Ani.
contrarian
(03/03/2003; 07:58:36 MDT - Msg ID: 98769)
Dumb question for Noble1
Noble1--
I'm trying to understand your excellent post from yesterday...but what does NWO stand for?


Thanks!
Pizz
(03/03/2003; 08:14:08 MDT - Msg ID: 98770)
Contrarian
try New World Order

Pizz
a nation of one
(03/03/2003; 08:30:58 MDT - Msg ID: 98771)
pog


The support that existed at 350 has been successfully eroded.
Broken Tee
(03/03/2003; 08:34:29 MDT - Msg ID: 98772)
test
test post
a nation of one
(03/03/2003; 08:42:13 MDT - Msg ID: 98773)
Why spend foolishly and then borrow?

This question is asked on Mineset.com: "Why would anyone want to lend to a country whose debts are rising and whose currency is weakening?"

--Two reasons. One, it's still early. The debt could still be repaid. Two, if it isn't, then there is the collateral, even if it consists of little more than an increased ability to blackmail, or to exact some other kind of damage or abuse. To borrow is to place oneself in the hands of another.
a nation of one
(03/03/2003; 08:44:29 MDT - Msg ID: 98774)
correction

'mineset.com' should read 'minesite.com'.
CoBra(too)
(03/03/2003; 08:54:20 MDT - Msg ID: 98775)
POG
Even if you're sitting on the right track,
you'll still be run over if you don't move.

PoG has made a nice V-shaped comeback in the
last hour ... it's moving...alas, in an ever
more volatile way. cb2
a nation of one
(03/03/2003; 09:04:27 MDT - Msg ID: 98776)
Response to Sundeck (3/3/03; 03:17:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 98763)

Your quote: "In one of his most disastrous moves as President of the United States, Richard Nixon abandoned the "gold standard" and allowed the American dollar to float against everyone else's currency. Because of the huge value of American productivity, the U.S. dollar soon became the de facto standard against which everything else was measured. But it was a moving target. To what this has led is 30 or so years of currency speculation that has been a total disaster for all but the strongest players."

--Undoubtedly that was its purpose. The idea was probably sold to the administration, and others, by saying only good things about it, while omitting the negative points. Nixon's failure consisted of neglecting to obtain sufficient contrary views. This is one of the chief flaws of every authoritarian entity. They can only bear to hear certain things, or they tolerate on supportive types of behavior. And that requires that some other -true- things not become known to them. By now, surely, there ought to be significantly increasing numbers of individuals who recognize this, even though, perhaps, many of them may be unable to express it verbally. The next step will be that they _will_ be able to state their objections verbally, and in other ways too, and this will eventually develop into a growing resolution of the problem, at least on an individual basis.
a nation of one
(03/03/2003; 09:24:57 MDT - Msg ID: 98777)
pog

Looks like my timing couldn't have been worse. That's often the case with me. Still, it hasn't bounced back above 350, though it does appear that buying may be starting to outweigh selling. (I am learning that making accurate predictions has more to do with choosing the right words, than with actually knowing what's going to happen. 'May be starting', for instance -as in 'may be starting to outweigh selling'- is less likely to be perceived as having been wrong than simply saying 'is' -as in 'buying is starting to outweigh selling'. Of course, really, the truth is that it is. But that doesn't mean that it will still be, after the next five minutes. Live and learn. Well, live anyway.
fang
(03/03/2003; 11:04:58 MDT - Msg ID: 98778)
Royal Gold hammered
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030302/minerals_royalgold_barrons_1.htmlLooks like Barron's is front running the cartel (big weekend for trashing gold in the 'media', see above link, plus http://www.nypost.com/business/69685.htm ) in thier mashing of RGLD, funny you don't see P/E comparisons of the 'Daq sweethearts. If Au bullishness is directly related to the # of stories explaining how and why it's going nowhere and that the bugs are crazy, we're about to enter the second leg...............
Trojan
(03/03/2003; 11:08:25 MDT - Msg ID: 98779)
@ Pizz Or Whomever Knows The Answer Re: Noble1 # 98756
Last night at 03/02/03 23:50:59 # 98756, Noble1 contributed his opinion on the current world situation and how it might affect Gold and the U.S. Dollar.

Perhaps some folks at this forum haven't read it as yet.

I found it to be as clear, focused and to the point.

I strongly recommend you read it if you haven't done so.

Now on to the codes in the message of Noble1.

Pizz has already explained to contrarian that NWO stands for New World Order.

I understood all of the other codes used by Noble1 except for SOL.

If anyone knows what SOL stands for, I would appreciate an answer on it.

To Noble1: Of course you know the answer :-) so if the answer isn't posted before you read this post please let us know. Thank you.

By the way, I also want to thank you for making it so very clear to me exactly what a war with Iraq would mean short term for the U.S. Dollar.



Gandalf the White
(03/03/2003; 11:18:44 MDT - Msg ID: 98780)
TAAAA TAAAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlUP-DATE of Listings as of MONDAY 3/3/03 10:30 Denver Time !

INVALID Entry needing Required statement (Confession)
**** $340.0 **** kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733
===

VISIT the CONTEST Link above for ALL the data.

Valid entries listed on order of Decreasing value !
---

**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)

**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (02/28/03; 06:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98581)
**** $385.4 **** slingshot (02/27/03; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98555)

**** $381.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (02/27/03; 10:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98525

**** $378.0 **** Mountain Top (02/27/03; 17:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98543)

**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)

**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)

**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)

**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)

**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)

**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)


2/28/03 GC3J HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 Yesterday's OI = 107,869

Sir Kevin$ is now "King of the Hill" !!!!


Gandalf the White
(03/03/2003; 11:24:01 MDT - Msg ID: 98781)
Sir Trojan
"SOL" is slang shorthand for ( xxx out of luck ) --- Where the xxx is the word standing for human execration ! Some people have the tendency to use the lower level of the English language went communication to emphasize the point!
<;-(
Gandalf the White
(03/03/2003; 11:26:14 MDT - Msg ID: 98782)
OOPS ! <;-)
"went communication" should have been "when communicating" !!!
Old Yeller
(03/03/2003; 11:33:36 MDT - Msg ID: 98783)
Interesting post on Fed/Treasury's gold "problem"
http://www.mips1.net/422567D90030EAB4/0/95898628D1EF5423C2256CDE003F7E5A?OpenDocument
It would nice to finally ringfence these desperados.
Waverider
(03/03/2003; 11:52:13 MDT - Msg ID: 98784)
Iraqi Goldsmiths See Buyers as Hedging Rises on War Jitters
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex&box=ad_box_all&tag=worldnews∣dle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APmKcOxVHSXJhcWkgSnip:
"Hanifa Ali pushes open the door to Talal's goldsmith shop across the street from the Al Kadhimain Mosque in northwestern Baghdad. ``Do you buy gold?'' she asks. ``I have a few items I'd like you to see.''Hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of gold change hands each month in more than 150 shops around the mosque, traders estimate. Iraqis, like investors in Europe, Asia or the U.S., are seeking the stability provided by gold as their country's economy declines and the threat of war mounts. Traders say there's been an increase in business over the past two months. Prices have risen in recent months. Traders monitor the spot gold market and set their prices accordingly. In New York, the price of gold has gained 20 percent in the past year to $351.53 an ounce. In Baghdad, the same quantity, about 31 grams, sells for $310. ``Gold is a refuge these days,'' says Talal. ``Prices have risen because the global economy isn't performing very well and it provides better safety for everyone.''
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/03/2003; 12:03:03 MDT - Msg ID: 98785)
Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Swiss Gold Francs

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call USAGOLD - Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115

Gandalf the White
(03/03/2003; 12:28:46 MDT - Msg ID: 98786)
Today's POG CONTEST "KING of the HILL" !!!
2/28/03 GC3J HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 Yesterday's OI = 107,869
3/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 Yesterday's OI = 105,993

AND for the SECOND Day in a row ... Sir Kevin$ is AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!!!

===
NEAREST Prognostications to COMEX GC3J Settlement

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)

===
<;-)
monTROZ
(03/03/2003; 12:35:48 MDT - Msg ID: 98787)
****344.0****
I'm writing this confession reclining on the deck of my yacht "The Merchant of Death" (I call her the MOD for short) sipping a nice 1990 Chateau Montrose. The sun is shining, the salty air smells sweet, and it's a good day to be rich. Since I filled up most of the lower decks with recently purchased 2000 Bordeaux and moved the arms shipments to the upper decks to be ready for quick delivery, the ship has been a little top heavy. Needing ballast that didn't take up too much space, and Portugal was on my way, I bought their 30 tonnes of gold. The story gets interesting from here. Portugal said that they had the gold and that I could take delivery. After mooring the MOD in Lisbon harbor I arranged for 10 armored cars to deliver the gold, in six round trips of half a ton each. I was alarmed to be told by the Bank of Portugal that they didn't really have the gold. They have clear title and it's definitely theirs and I can definitely have it but it's stored in a warehouse in London. They said they were very sorry but no one ever actually tries to take delivery on sales like this. This was a first for them, or since my Portuguese isn't too good maybe they said "This was the end for them". After dozens of telephone calls, I was assured that the gold would be available if I came to England and presented the proper purchase documents to the warehouse. I had the steward pick up a couple of cases of 1948 Graham's and headed for Dover.
It was quite a frustrating time in England and the Port was needed to quell my anger when it turned out that the London warehouse did not in fact have the gold. My first mate and gunner had to visit the warehouse and present the documents since I was ordered a long time ago not to set foot in Great Britain again. The story was the same, ask them if they have the gold and they assure me that they do. They can show a few bars, but nobody has ever actually taken the gold. They just give a receipt and the buyers are content with the warehouse safely storing their gold for them. Since I did have clear title to the 30 tons and I needed it for a valid purpose, they suggested that I sail to South Africa and pick it up directly from the mine that definitely has it. Durban is on my way to Yemen to deliver the arms, since the MOD is unwelcome in the Suez due to the unfortunate incident with the anti-aircraft gun. Fortunately, the plane landed safely and no one was killed, or I'd be rotting in a jail in Cairo now. The flame-broiled goose was a bit overcooked that evening.
I am not looking forward to the rough seas around the cape with the ship top heavy as she is and with the lifeboats full of Stingers and land mines. The South African mine has assured me that they have not committed "all" of their production to forward sales and I will definitely be able to pick up the gold, but I'm not sure I trust the new management. I really didn't understand their question of whether I'd be willing to take half white gold and half black gold. The way it's going I figure I'll just pick up 30 tons of rhodium instead, and ask for a refund in Euros on the gold. If they tell me that there is 30 tons of dental scrap in Switzerland, I'll just have to pass since there are no ports in Switzerland and besides I would be arrested.
Gandalf the White
(03/03/2003; 12:37:07 MDT - Msg ID: 98788)
CONTEST Rules UP-DATE ! TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!
Be it known that the REAL purchaser of the 30 Tonnes of Portugal Gold has contacted the Hobbits and suggested that he really wishes to enter the POG CONTEST but not "confess" that he is the ONE ! SOOOOOO, after consultation with the USAGOLD Castle, the Rules have now been MODIFIED to allow anyone (like Sir Kahulik's Entry) to submit a POG entry with just a STATEMENT of "Why" they choose that POG Price ! OF COURSE, then they are not eligible to win the prizes of the ESSAY Contest segment !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/03/2003; 12:43:00 MDT - Msg ID: 98790)
THANK YOU Sir monTROZ !!
Confessions ARE good for your soul !
You "MADE my DAY" !!
Happy SAILING !
<;-)
21mabry
(03/03/2003; 13:10:17 MDT - Msg ID: 98791)
tv
Has anyone else noticed the increased amount of coin shows on the shop at home channels.The ridiculous prices are only exceeded by the shysters who host the shows.
physicalman
(03/03/2003; 13:17:05 MDT - Msg ID: 98792)
SOL
Stands for S#@*(&%T OUTTA LUCK
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/03/2003; 13:17:17 MDT - Msg ID: 98793)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. I've noticed that USAGOLD / Centennial stresses education more than most of your competitors. Why is that?

MK. For years, we have emphasized "We educate first-time investors" in our advertising. We believe education to be the key to successful gold ownership. To make a long story short, we tend to keep our clientele as they become better educated, while many of our competitors tend to lose their clientele once they become educated. It shows in the type of services we consider important to complement our sales and delivery programs.

Randy interjects... Mike is way too nice to say this bluntly so I will. What I've noticed about the apparent rationale behind some of those other firms' operating philosophy is that, if they bend the client over far enough for their wallet the first time they ever do business together, they really don't have to care about getting repeat business. There is fresh meat walking in the door every day. It doesn't have to be that way, but some people simply don't take the time to shop around for a quality firm. They should.

Q. What are some of the criteria a prospective investor should look for in a gold firm?

MK. Credibility, longevity, pricing, service and compatibility -- all come into the mix. Of those I rate credibility and its sister virtues -- reliability and reputability -- the most important. Too many of the national firms have brokers who were selling condos at the beach or automobiles a month ago and now suddenly they've become "gold experts" selling leverage schemes, $50,000 rare coins, reproduction medallions at 25 times their gold content, or overpriced silver investments. Most sophisticated gold investors would probably like to avoid that sort of thing.

physicalman
(03/03/2003; 13:19:04 MDT - Msg ID: 98795)
OOPS!
Sorry, Gandalf already answered that one
Mr Gresham
(03/03/2003; 13:22:30 MDT - Msg ID: 98796)
Sir monTROZ
We just get some amazing people around here. I knew you were one of them. Thanks!
21mabry
(03/03/2003; 13:23:57 MDT - Msg ID: 98797)
mining st ocks
These mining stocks are making me cry.Physical man how about some advice on buying sterling silver from garage sales and the like.thnx 21
ElGordo
(03/03/2003; 13:50:16 MDT - Msg ID: 98798)
N Korea intercept US spy plane
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Military sources say as many as four North Korean MiGs intercepted a U.S. reconnaissance plane over international waters during the weekend, MSNBC reported Monday.

According to the sources, the MiGs came within 500 feet of the U.S. RC-135 plane but didn't act aggressively, MSNBC said.

The network said the incident - the first such intercept since 1969 - happened in international air space over the Korean peninsula.
Waverider
(03/03/2003; 13:52:30 MDT - Msg ID: 98799)
**VIP** DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlShort Snip:
"Gold finished a volatile trading session on Monday as some weak speculators left the market on a presumption that war may be avoided since Iraq destroyed some illegal missiles. Meanwhile the USS Nimitz left San Diego for the Middle East this morning and troops at Fort Hood prepared for deployment in the Middle East...The economic data this morning was a mixed bag though the ISM data suggests that the U.S. economy is slipping significantly. After the gold pits closed the U.S. equities markets and the U.S. dollar weakened. In short the geopolitical situation is very clouded and war in Iraq appears inevitable while the global economy cracks under the strain of rising energy prices and weak consumer support. The fundamental case for precious metals remains very strong as production is reported to be falling off while physical demand remains high."
GoldnSilver2002
(03/03/2003; 14:21:29 MDT - Msg ID: 98800)
Losing right along side ya,yet still optimistic
Wow,royalgold must have been embarrassing someone or starting to get attention.We shouldnt be surprised by these desperate attempts after all the next string of bankrupcies on wall st should be here soon.This is an act of fear by the cabal,it tells me the second leg is about to begin.We shouldnt be surprised that many, recognizing the gold market is fixed decide to opt out of the game.Nothing in the economy is improving,and high energy will wreck the best laid plans of the cabal.If people want to believe all is well,and things will soon return to normal let them.We have to realize the cabal has nothing to lose,their game is falling apart and a whole generation of investors will never be back to these markets due to this very manipulation.People may not buy gold but they sure as hell wont buy down jones or nasdog either.THE MANIPULATION REEKS TO THE HIGH HEAVENS,as such the average joe no longer trusts wall st with their money.

one must ask themselves these questions:

Do you beleive there will never be any terrorism again?
Do you beleive there will never be war again?
Do you beleive the usd will rise in the face of all odds?
Is the down jones and nasdog trend up or is it down?
Is high energy prices a good thing?
Is there no inflation?
Will the rest of the world gladly hold the usd(declining assets) and pay for the u.s folly and war?
When the u.s attacks will the world stand by mutely and have no response?
Do you enjoy being service charged to death?
Will the japanese buy gold when all deposit insurance in a bankrupt banking system is lifted?
Can the central banks sell gold forever?

If you said yes to all these then owning gold makes no sense to you.I see this as a last gasp desperate attempt by a dying cabal.If gold wasnt going up would they really go to all this trouble?They say its always darkest before the dawn.I think after reading this site we should have expected this.When a man is dying he often gives one last final "death blow" before his life passes away.In my opinion we just saw it,they know usa is going into iraq.They also know gold will spike again when they do,the good news is with all the weak hands exiting,there may be no correction(big) as they had hoped.Hang in there if you can,
the second leg is coming and they know it.Everything comes to he who waits.They are running out of time,not us.
CoBra(too)
(03/03/2003; 14:51:39 MDT - Msg ID: 98801)
The Way Justifies the Goal!
A maxime or doctrine falsely attributed to the Society of Jesus, commonly known as the Jesuits may have been adopted by the PTB. As the Price of Gold did not budge much more as to the lower 340's several times now, a concerted effort or media salvo was fired to bring the PM Compound down.

The latest was a barbarous Barrons article to defile the spirited efforts of Royal Gold, an accumulator of gold royalties and excellent prospects. A company, which appreciated 600% over the last 2 years. I'd be wondering what the response of the CEO, Stan Dempsey of Denver may be as the Barrons "analysis" shaved 33% of the co's value in one day. Stan, being a geologist, landman and a lawyer from Washington D.C. may have some real answers up his sleeve.

Though, all of that may be beside the point. It just proves the utter desperation of the "anti gold cartel", which now seem to have pulled all the stops to no real avail. The gold leased, forwarded and sold in order to artificially depress the PoG is gone and can't ever be replenished by any more clever accounting gimmicks.

Buy the dips, when the PTB is offering real value for almost free and say thank you for the precious gift - cb2

... and BTW - Barrons have almost always been right on the dot in calling reversals of the trend - to their chagrin, though!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/03/2003; 15:06:11 MDT - Msg ID: 98802)
Real wealth never goes out of style
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Golden Goal




"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

Wild Hare
(03/03/2003; 15:10:29 MDT - Msg ID: 98803)
air travel with coins
Thanks to everyone who responded to my question.

I decided to bring only a portion of my collection on the plane. I put 4 rolls of european bullion coins (roosters & such) and 1 roll of silver eagles in my backpack.

I went through security with no problem although they removed the rolls from the backpack and ran them through the screening apparatus again.

Unfortunately, I'm in a position of needing to liquidate some of my stash. While this is obviously undesirable - on the bright side I'm learning quite a bit about the buy side of things with various dealers.
Black Blade
(03/03/2003; 15:13:09 MDT - Msg ID: 98804)
Dollar Weak and Gold Strong

The USD threatens to go sub 99 while Gold is up in after hours back to where it finished on Friday in NY. The dollar is under pressure as oil and NatGas rebound in after market trading.

Royal Gold article in Barron's was often cited throughout the day in the media (especially CNBC) and that added a bit of negative sentiment to the sector during the trading session. However, the real story is not a particular gold stock, war in the ME, or any other market "dog and pony show" - but the weak US dollar and floundering equities market as the gloabl economy goes into a death spiral on the back of high energy costs amid shrinking supply. Without "cheap energy" there is no economy - nada - none!

I find it amusing that the financial media trots out obscure analysts that no one ever heard of with no solid background to exclaim how there's more oil and NatGas in the world than anyone knows what to do with and that no one wants to buy precious metals. Who are these people and where did they come from? No one seems to know as the old familiar names seem to have disappeared. They also do not know what they are talking about. I for one have a more extensive background in the industry than these stock market touts and yes, there is a real shortage of "cheap" hydrocarbon potential and storage. There is declining production of precious metals even though there is strong physical demand that far outstrips current production. Central bank sales do not go into the open market but are generally logged into the ledger books of other central banks. You won't hear this story from the financial media infomercials and their phoney guests.

"Interesting Times"

- Black Blade
Clink!
(03/03/2003; 15:20:26 MDT - Msg ID: 98805)
Clif Droke sounds optimistic
http://www.clifdroke.com/gold/g030303.mgiI must admit that I am in two minds about Mr. Droke. As far as his analysis is concerned, I would have to admit that he has made some good calls in the past (and not always to the upside). However, I just don't understand the whys and wherefores of exactly how he places his parabolae. Does anyone else have any thoughts ?
Operative
(03/03/2003; 15:21:49 MDT - Msg ID: 98806)
@GoldnSilver2002
You write: "Everything comes to he who waits."

I have yet to be entirely convinced that patience is a virtue. However, in the case of holding on to our gold, indeed obtaining more of same, will be profitable.

Enjoyed your post.
Black Blade
(03/03/2003; 15:45:21 MDT - Msg ID: 98807)
Worst credit climate since the depression
http://www.cfo.com/printarticle/0,5317,8894|,00.htmlWorst credit climate since the depression, says Moody's. Plus: look who's cozying up to analysts.

Snippit:

Turns out that fewer corporate issuers defaulted on rated bonds in 2002, according to Moody's Investors Service's annual study of global defaults and ratings performance. All things considered -- a neat trick -- that would seem like a sign that corporate health is on the improve. But ominously, Moody's says the total dollar volume of defaulted debt last year soared to over $163 billion. That's a 60 percent jump from the $106 billion in the dollar volume of defaults in 2001. "The duration and depth of the current credit cycle has eclipsed that of the 1990-91 period and, in fact, has not been matched since the 1930s," said David T. Hamilton, Moody's director of corporate bond default research.

Black Blade: Looks ugly. The "New Great Depression" looms over the horizon.

Off to the gym!

mikal
(03/03/2003; 16:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 98808)
@Clink
Re: C. Droke "bowls"
His unique method is based on precise points on graph paper. Daily retrieved from the series of swipes and leaps of his chained feline, Fortuna as she reacts to "the people's stock picking channel". Happily, each play-by-play on the graph paper forms a reliable "message" that Droke translates into his "bowls"!
CoBra(too)
(03/03/2003; 16:05:11 MDT - Msg ID: 98809)
Derivatives, Weapons of (Financial) Mass Destruction!
http://www.fortune.com/fortune/investing/articles/0,15114,427751,00.htmlSays the Sage of Omaha, Warren Buffet in a Fortune article, thanks to friendly neighbors of the castle.

If this is so, Mr. John Snow should declare war on the 26 Trillion derivative position, a real neutron bomb of systemic financial destruction - amassed by JPM/Chase. The same JPM, which became again (in)famous with its deals with a group called Enron, providing some tax, accounting and other Mahonia Bush shelters?
Real nice guys, and by looking at their history you'll be really surprised by finding these guys may have been pertinent to embezzle the US to join WWI (and II?), as well as financing the Russian October Revolution. At least according to E. Griffin, who's Creature of Jekyll Island is a must read. ... (I have to admit reading the book some 10 years ago and had a hard time believing the script - now with a 20/20 afterthought and rereading the recently edited edition it becomes tough to reject its premises and postulations).

The only shelter for your ultimate wealth from W(F)MD's is only a 0800 # away - go Gold and Centennial - cb2, says he's been treated exceptionally fair by these guys.

OZ
(03/03/2003; 17:01:18 MDT - Msg ID: 98810)
monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787)
I hope you win the contest; your satire was really out of this world. great work.
R Powell
(03/03/2003; 18:48:39 MDT - Msg ID: 98811)
Price report on a quiet night
Gold +1.80
Silver +0.02
Now approaching what used to be refered to as The Far East.
mikal
(03/03/2003; 18:50:26 MDT - Msg ID: 98812)
Tension, uncertainty dominates war scenario
http://www.news.com.auAssassins in Iraq
March 01, 2003 -Excerpts:
"US military special forces have been inside Iraq for months and aim to capture or kill Iraqi President Saddam Hussein within three hours of an assault on Baghdad.
Undercover US agents, CIA operatives and special forces teams are already in place in and around the Iraqi capital, according to highly placed diplomatic sources.....
In the past fortnight Saddam has:
* ORDERED members of his depleted and demoralised air force to form a "kamikaze" suicide unit which will pilot Iraqi fighter jets September-11-style into enemy targets;
* ADDED two new units to his forces - the Fidayee Saddam Army and the Special Protection Army. They join the regular army, the Republican Guard, the Special Republican Guard and the Alquds Liberation Army, ;
* SENT senior officers of his Special Republican Guard to monitor the regular army for any sign of revolt;
* ORDERED the arrest of key officers in the air force suspected of treachery. They have been sent to the notorious Abu Graib Prison in Baghdad. Three air force officers - two captains and a lieutenant - who refused to join the kamikaze units were shot last week during the traditional Al Adha feast;
* ESTABLISHED a bio-chemical weapons training base at Al Naserieya, in southern Iraq for use as a last resort against coalition troops; and
* DRAWN up plans for a scorched earth policy involving the destruction of dams, bridges and oil wells.
Much of the insight into Saddam's plans comes from a former senior officer in an elite Iraqi Army unit who led an uprising against Saddam during the last Gulf War, Captain William Warda, who was granted political asylum in Australia by UN edict.
Speaking yesterday, Captain Warda, who is now a senior official in the Iraqi Military Council, said the council was using a complex web of agents inside Saddam's regime to monitor the dictator and his military plans.
"We have received this information from agents still inside Iraq and others who have escaped through Jordan," he told The Daily Telegraph.
Mr Warda said agents had also told the council Saddam had sent spies to the US and her allies - including Australia - on terrorist missions.
Saddam is so distrustful of his regular army he has starved it of resources, supplying only minimal stores of ammunition, fuel and food.
Communication lines are also stretched, rendering regular army units incapable of attack and able to offer only limited opposition.
Saddam has created a Special Protection Army to protect him from assassination. It is made up of his closest allies, including relatives, tribal loyalists from his birthplace of Tikrit and criminals who face jail should Saddam be toppled. Numbering several hundred, this unit will fight to the death.....
Daily Telegraph military specialist Aldo Borgu said whether Iraqi troops would surrender within days of a US-led attack would depend on a number of issues including how well Saddam holds up and how effective the US is in separating the conscript forces from their commanders.
Unlike America's opponents in Afghanistan, the Taliban and al-Qaeda, elements of the Iraqi army are regarded as testing opponents.
"The people in the Special Republican Guard have been drawn from (Saddam's) own village. The people have ties to him by tribe and clan and a lot to lose if he is overthrown," Mr Borgu said."
Carl H
(03/03/2003; 18:52:02 MDT - Msg ID: 98813)
Former Treasury Secretary O'Neil and Kodak
I read recently that O'Neil joined the board of Kodak. Former treasury secretrary joins board of the largest silver user in the world. This got filed in my mind as "interesting". This morning I put 2 and 2 together and realized that Kodak must have a stock pile of silver. If I were a suspicious type person, I might think that O'Neil was being sent there to mobilize that silver "for the good of the strong dollar policy".



VanRip
(03/03/2003; 19:11:10 MDT - Msg ID: 98814)
****360.8****

I bought the 30 tonnes because I had an offer I couldn't refuse. I've made a down payment and expect to receive my bonanza in due time. 30 tonnes is a lot, and I really don't need it all, so perhaps I can interest some of you in the deal of a lifetime.

You see, I recently received an email from the Colonel-In-Charge of Ports and Calls of the Nigerian Consulate in the Ivory Coast. He had a secret to share, and since it was so important, he could only share it with someone with an outstanding reputation of honesty and integrity. Me, of course.

According to the colonel, 30 tonnes of Portuguese gold were sold to an American outfit named PIZZ, the Pacific Institute of Zany ZPA's, and shipped out of Lisbon on a small Portuguese freighter bound for New York. Just over the horizon the ship rendezvoused with another small freighter, one of Nigerian registry. The gold was quickly transfered to the African ship and replaced with lead bars coated with a fine coat of low-grade gold. The fake bars then resumed transit to the USA and PIZZ.

The real gold was then shipped to Nigeria where it was secretly off-loaded and trucked to the colonel's farm. There it was buried in 15 holes, two tonnes for each hole. The colonel's plan was to dig up the gold hole by hole and sell it through unofficial channels in Africa, namely to a secretive but well known bunch of dopey, thieving marketeers, jokingly referred to behind their backs as the Inbred M..... F.....s - (IMF, for short).

However, everything has fallen apart and come to a halt due to lack of funds. More expensive than he thought. Too many unexpected people to bribe and a little extortion too, I suppose. Of course, the colonel cannot reveal to any more of his friends that he masterminded the whole thing for fear he would be found out by officialdom and shot. So he had to go outside the country for funds to operate, which, naturally, led him to me.

For my help, he graciously offered me all 15 holes, though he knew I would understand if he held a few back for himself. Understandable. All I had to do was send him cash for the gold at roughly one-quarter of spot, which included his expenses, by the way. He would then mark the gold up to close to spot and sell it to the not-too-bright and greedy IMF. The difference plus some of my down payment he would send to me... more than a double. What a deal, right? What a concept. Unfortunately for me, according to the colonel, the funds I have already sent were somehow mistakenly marked, which led to their confiscation by the local sharp-eyed Bureau of Incoming Shipments - (BIS, for short). Bummer, since I have to send the same funds again. I'll sure be more careful this time, for sure. Hey, these things happen. That's how you learn.

Anyway, I sure don't need 10 holes worth, maybe one or two, so I thought I would share my good fortune with the forum here and cut in as many of you as are interested in this deal of a lifetime. All you have to do is let me know how many holes you would like, and I'll cut you a big break. Come to think about it, I better wire the PIZZ outfit to let them know they've been scammed with those gold covered lead bars and to let them have first dibs on this can't lose deal.

steady
(03/03/2003; 19:34:36 MDT - Msg ID: 98815)
question
would/ do governments misrepresent the total amount of minerals mined ? can they do that? is it possible? is it what mexico is doing ? just saying opppss silver production is down while all the time building a strategic stockpile with the supposed loss in production silver?
ElGordo
(03/03/2003; 20:12:17 MDT - Msg ID: 98817)
Financial sense today post
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmsnippet:

As a financial barometer of future storms, that barometer is now flashing a major warning sign, telling me a major storm is approaching. The combination of financial and corporate debt, consumer debt, and government debt is now running at rates over $2 trillion a year.

It is now taking $4.8 dollars of debt to produce $1 in GDP. The government deficit is now running at an annual rate of $300 billion and will get larger in the months ahead because of war and another dip into recession. In fact, at the rate of which debt is being accumulated, it looks like we are surely headed for another depression.
Zhisheng
(03/03/2003; 20:27:50 MDT - Msg ID: 98818)
UP!
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=sThe dollar is the world's currency.

Gold (when free of manipulation) is the yardstick of the world's faith in the quality of its currency.

The dollar index is the gauge of the relative value of the dollar to that of other major currencies (which must undergo continual debasement to grease the wheels of politics in their respective countries of origin).

The dollar index today has fallen nigh 1% and bids seriously tonight to test 99 on the downside.

Whither then strives the price of gold? Logic answers�
Noble1
(03/03/2003; 20:42:09 MDT - Msg ID: 98819)
****372.7****

Will the real buyer of the Portugal gold please stand up!

Contestant #1
my name is jpmo

Contestant #2
My Name Is Jpmo

Contestant #3
MY NAME IS JPMO

Question to contestant #1--What did you use to pay for this gold?
Answer: I electronically and digitally transferred the tidy sum of $XXXX million US dollars into the coffers of the Central Bank of Portugal. I'm sure they're more than satisfied to have this fiat currency as part of their reserves rather than that barbarous relic. I'm sure they're aware of our strong dollar policy and the ever increasing value of the USD. Just think of the value of the USD since 1971 when Nixon removed all gold convertibility. Oh, yes, I paid a fortune for this gold.

Same question to contestant #2.
Answer: Thank you for asking me this question. I didn't exactly pay for this gold. I swapped for it. Somehow it made sense for me to swap the gold that I have buried for the gold they have buried because I am not allowed to sell or lease my gold. But, now that I have their gold, and they have my gold, I can sell or lease it as I please.

Interesting!Well Mr. #3 can we now have your response?
Answer: These Bozos #1 and #2 don't know what their talking about. Those kind of payments work but they cost too much. I bought the 30 tons and paid for it with this here paper contract. What it says is that I really don't ever have to pay anything for it. Because I have this here other paper contract from this here mining co. that says they will replace the gold should I ever ask for it. Of course, the gold is in deep deep storage and it may take 15yrs. from the time I ask for it till the time I get it. And this here mining co. may or may not still be in business. And I also have the choice of giving the BofP those ever valuable USDs.
Meanwhile, the physical gold is mine to do with what I please. Oops, did I say that? Of course I was only trying to help the BofP by taking this nonperforming asset off their hands. As I have no use for this stuff.

Alright judges, let's have your vote. Is it C#1, C#2, or C#3?

Remember: The more you research gold, the more you come to understand it's historic intrinsic value.
Pb>Au
(03/03/2003; 21:31:41 MDT - Msg ID: 98820)
Gold Bugs and Silverites
A high school junior called my attention to the following in a textbook currently being used in a local high school and it pretty much says it all. I was asked to explain what this was all about.
Did I have fun!!!!!!
I hope this generates some lively discussion; it's like researching the Family Tree. Might be interesting if someone has time, to do a timeline of all significant events around gold.

"Gold Bugs In 1873 supporters of tight money won a victory. Until that time, United States currency had been on a bimetallic standard. That is, currency consisted of gold or silver coins or United States treasury notes that could be traded in for gold or silver. In 1873, in order to prevent inflation and ensure economic stability, Congress put the nation's currency on the gold standard. This move reduced the amount of money in circulation because the money supply would be limited by the amount of gold held by the government.

Conservative "gold bugs" were pleased. Many of them were big lenders, and they liked the idea of being repaid in currency backed by the gold standard.

Silverites - "Silverites," mostly silver-mining interests and western farmers, were furious at the nation's move to a gold standard. They claimed that the end of silver as a monetary standard would depress the prices of farm produce. Silverites called instead for free silver-- the unlimited coining of silver dollars as a means of increasing the money supply.

The Bland-Allison Act of 1878, was for the silverites, a step in the right direction. This act required the federal government to purchase and coin more silver, increasing the money supply and causing inflation.
Passed by congress, the Bland-Allison Act was vetoed by President Hayes because he opposed the inflation it would create. Congress then overrode Haye's veto. Yet the act had only a limited effect because the Treasury Department refused to buy more than the minimum silver required under the act. The Treasury also refused to circulate the silver dollars that the law required it to mint.

In 1890, Congress passed the Sherman Silver Purchase Act. While not authorizing the free and unlimited coinage of silver that the Silverites wanted, it did increase the amount of silver the government was required to purchase every month. The law required the Treasury to buy the silver with notes that could be redeemed for either silver or gold. Yet as people turned in their silver Treasury notes for gold dollars, the gold reserves of the government began to be depleted. To protect the nation's gold supply, President Cleveland oversaw the repeal of the Silver Purchase Act in 1893."

American Pathways to the Present - Prentice Hall
a nation of one
(03/03/2003; 21:33:56 MDT - Msg ID: 98821)
Reply to steady (03/03/03; 19:34:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98815)

Your concern: "question would/ do governments misrepresent the total amount of minerals mined ? can they do that? is it possible? is it what mexico is doing ? just saying opppss silver production is down while all the time building a strategic stockpile with the supposed loss in production silver?"

--Is it possible to misrepresent the amount of minerals mined? Absolutely. Can they do that? Sure. But look. The truth is worse than that. Anyone who has worked for a government knows -or should know- that not only are figures lied about as a matter of course, but, what's worse, they can't get representative figures to begin with, in most cases. The numbers of cars sold they can probably know pretty closely. But information that has to come up from the grassroots through a bureaucracy, never. Those in charge of collating the data routinely have strong motives not to pass on true information, or in cases where they would like to, they mess them up or figure them incorrectly, most of the time. More often than not, managers even filter out applicants for managerial positions if they are known to be unwilling to alter data when desired. There are occasional instances where an employee -or groups of employees- will handle data proficiently. But these are the exception. Further, the heads of agencies typically don't want true data; often they prefer data that makes them look good, when this is possible, and it often is possible. A lot of different types of data have this vulnerability. Middle managers, and managers in top positions often feel threatened if certain kinds of data are too accurate, or too clear, even if their work is not reflected in it. Additionally, most managers have little or no understanding of how data should be collected, or how it should be interpreted or used. The really bad thing is that government managers most often do not know what type of information to collect, in order to derive the knowledge which they think they want to acquire, or even know what it actually is that they are wanting to find out, usually choosing to collect some other type of data that is more impressive, though less relevant. Only a few government are schooled in bureaucratic principles. Most have degrees in such things as art and music, literature, or athletics. While these things a perfectly wonderful -and I meant that- they don't prepare workers for bureaucracies. China did better four thousand years ago, and kept it up until comparatively recently. And many private companies also do not report accurate information, when required to by the government, but some of them habitually throw together whatever figures they think won't get them into trouble. The US government can't even accurately count the number of people in a cozy place like New Iberia, Louisiana, population 750 more or less. How do you think they are going to keep track of every ounce of gold or silver that is taken out of the insides of our entire planet? Impossible. (I suppose I should state here that I always correctly report all of my income, as required by law, and pay every last cent of taxes due.)
Black Blade
(03/03/2003; 21:39:56 MDT - Msg ID: 98822)
Market Wrap Up � Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Plotting A Dangerous Course

Snippit:

The financial media buries the story. Wall Street seldom talks about it. Fed officials and economists see it as a positive development. I'm talking about the trade deficit, which is spiraling out of control. The US is now borrowing close to $10 billion a week from overseas investors to pay for consumption. Our current trade deficit is now 5% of GDP. A good majority of this trade deficit is with China. China is now a major holder of US debt. The trade imbalances and investment balances with China are now running close to $150 billion per year.

Black Blade: What does China do with all these dollars? $150 billion is a five fold increase from the latest data I have from BCA Research showing a trade surplus of over $30 billion a year. At that rate annual investment in fixed assets has grown at an average of more than 20% a year since the mid-1990s. It is well known that Japan is losing market share to China at a exponential rate and therefore Japan is desperately selling its worthless currency in the ultimate "currency war" leading to destruction of its currency. For Japan it's a vicious cycle of currency destruction amid a failed banking system that simply exists only as a front. As for China the rising influx of US dollars creates a problem � especially as the US currency weakens and the Yuan is pegged to the dollar. It is no wonder then that a lot of these loose depreciating US dollars are used to purchase gold and increase the central banks gold reserves. Not long ago the World Gold Council assisted the Chinese central bank in determining a larger position in gold reserves as necessary for diversification away for an over abundance of dollars. As the flood of weaker US dollars stack up in the central bank's coffers it stands to reason that more and more precious metal must find its way to displace what is become a major liability rather than an asset. Where exactly do you think the Swiss gold and Portuguese gold has gone? Certainly not into the open market as physical supply remains tight. It is rumored that much of this gold as well as some South African mine production is going straight into the Chinese central bank. It is one way to disgorge the flood of US dollars for something of value.

ElGordo
(03/03/2003; 21:57:53 MDT - Msg ID: 98823)
IMF warns of UK housing bubble
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/030304/80/dumn2.htmlMost IMF directors endorsed the Bank of England's decision to lower interest rates in February. But the IMF said monetary policy must now balance supporting domestic demand against the risk of a housing bubble.

"It was agreed that, going forward, the authorities should stand ready to respond swiftly to the changing balance of risks," the IMF said.

Britain's latest real estate boom spurred a 25 percent surge in house prices in 2002. That left house prices rising above trend as a ratio of household earnings. Still, the substantial decline in interest rates has kept consumer debt service ratios much lower than in the late 1980s and the early 1990s, when Britain's housing market crashed.

Nevertheless, there are early signs that the British housing market could be in for a rough landing, if not an outright crash. One recent report from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors showed London house prices falling at their fastest pace in nine years. London real estate prices typically act as a leading indicator of British home prices.

And Britons have been loading up on credit card and other debts too. British consumer borrowing has surged so much in recent years that many pundits have predicted that rising debt levels could lead to a destabilizing crash.
__________
Sounds a lot like the US housing bubble.
-----------
Barron's article on Royal Gold is incredible. The guy making
the valuation call was SHORT the stock. Why does Barron's even
care about Gold equities? The entire gold sector has a market
cap of less than one big tech corporation.
physicalman
(03/03/2003; 22:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 98824)
*******392.5*******
Please allow me to introduce myself,i'm a man of wealth and fame. Of course it was me who picked up another 30 tonnes of gold. How ironic from the same to whom i led to new lands where so much of the precious was recovered. Now that gives me the edge on all CB's at 16,530 tonnes. How easy it was to play this game in the last several years from those who sold me their most precious possesion for an improved station in life. Now with less than i it will spiral downward and my minions shall ride in to save the day, but only to those with the "mark" of cooperation. Pleased to meet you, won't you guess my name?
mikal
(03/03/2003; 22:23:59 MDT - Msg ID: 98825)
Wisdom from legendary billionaire
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2003/03/04/cnbuff04.xml&sSheet=/money/2003/03/04/ixcity.html
Apocalypse is nigh, Buffett tells Berkshire faithful
By Simon English in New York� Filed: 04/03/2003 -Excerpt:
"Warren Buffett is poised to issue his most doom-laden forecast for the state of the world economy yet, including a damning verdict on the derivatives industry he fears could cause a global financial crisis.
In the upcoming annual letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Mr Buffett drops his usual folksy style to warn that banks do not understand the hidden risks lurking on their balance sheets.
He labels derivatives "time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system" and "financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal".
The views of the world's second richest man are closely watched and his apocalyptic vision will do little to steady nerves on Wall Street or in the City of London. Extracts from his annual letter, to be delivered on Saturday but posted on Fortune.com yesterday, reveal that he has little optimism for the stock market.
"Despite three years of falling prices which have significantly improved the attractiveness of common stocks, we still find very few that even mildly interest us. That dismal fact is testimony to the insanity of the valuations reached during the Great Bubble. Unfortunately, the hangover may prove to be proportional to the binge," he writes.
Until now vague warnings about the pyramid nature of derivatives contracts have led to bland assurance from banks that there is no threat to their stability.
Mr Buffett says the banks simply have no idea what their exposure could be. "When Charlie [Munger, his business partner] and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don't understand how much risk the institution is taking."
Derivatives are often complex financial instruments that allow investors to take bets on anything from share prices to the weather. Their range is limited, says Mr Buffett, "only by the imagination of man, or sometimes, so it seems, madmen". Enron was especially fond of derivatives, offering contracts that would be settled years in the future and claiming profits immediately..."
Black Blade
(03/03/2003; 23:09:18 MDT - Msg ID: 98826)
Economy feels shock of oil prices The recent spike in oil costs ripples through every sector, from transport to heating, raising the specter of recession.
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2003030300062x7418&SA=Latest%20News
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Mar 04, 2003 (The Christian Science Monitor via COMTEX) � Twelve months of rising energy prices are starting to threaten the US economy. A spike in oil prices has almost doubled the price of a commodity that literally fuels much of the economy. Combined with an even sharper increase in the cost of natural gas, the hike is siphoning cash from consumers and businesses at a time when the US economy is frozen in place. The extra energy bill - impacting everyone from commuters to airlines and factories - could amount to as much as $100 billion on an annualized basis. Economists say it's enough to shave 1 full percentage point off economic growth. And, if prices stay at this level or rise further, the risk of another recession is very real. In fact, rising fuel costs helped to cause or deepen the past four recessions: the mid-1970s, early 1980s, 1990-91, and 2000. The higher prices are showing up almost everywhere - from the rising cost of heating an apartment in Boston to the amount of money it takes to ship a head of lettuce from Mexico to Chicago. Airlines and semi-operators are tacking on fuel surcharges. And, last week, some heavy-industrial businesses said they would pare back their output until prices evened out while others warned Congress that the nation could expect higher prices for products ranging from fertilizer to bathroom fixtures.

Black Blade: Risk of slipping into a recession is no concern as we are currently in one. There will be no economic recovery this year or next. Any economic growth will increase demand on energy, and energy supply remains tight with no relief in sight. Scratch any hope of "economic recovery" this year, in "the second half", or even next year.

Black Blade
(03/03/2003; 23:21:48 MDT - Msg ID: 98827)
Dwindling Supplies of Natural Gas Spur Hike in Energy Prices
http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=NR200303041180.3_6239000c1b46b099

Snippit:

Energy experts predicted heating prices would go up this winter, mostly because temperatures were expected to be lower than they were last year. But the weather has been colder than expected and reserves have been depleted, which could cause high prices to resurface next winter. "It's the perfect storm," said Aubrey Hilliard, president and chief executive officer of Horizon Energy, a Charlotte-based energy brokerage. "You've got Iraq, Venezuela, no drilling, and the real killer right now is the weather." No one expects shortages of natural gas this winter, but a report by Horizon Weather and Energy Ventures Group, two Colorado companies, states that the "storage supply will drop perilously low during the remaining six weeks of the winter heating season. "Energy providers will not be able to replenish the reserves at normal levels to face the winter of 2004. This will result in a continued upward spiral in prices." Bill O'Grady, a natural-gas analyst for A.G. Edwards in St. Louis, said "This is a crisis and it's very severe. ... It isn't going away in a couple of months." O'Grady said additional supply would alleviate the problem, but little new drilling is being done in the United States. Gas companies won't search for new gas supplies until they can be assured a higher return, he said.

Black Blade: Next winter will be quite "interesting", especially if this summer is normal or warmer than normal.

Gandalf the White
(03/03/2003; 23:37:24 MDT - Msg ID: 98828)
Thanks -- Sir Physicalman ! <;-)
physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824)
"Pleased to meet you, won't you guess my name?"
====
Nice to FINALLY meet you too, Christopher !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/03/2003; 23:41:22 MDT - Msg ID: 98829)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!
Listing UP-DATED as of MONDAY, 3/3/03, 21:40 Denver Time !

NOTE to CONTEST entrants -- Please check to see if your "Prognostication" number has been taken in any newly entered guess, AFTER the above posting time, just before you submit yours, so that there are not any duplications ! Tkanks <;-)

**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)

**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)

**** $392.5 **** physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824)

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (02/28/03; 06:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98581)
**** $385.4 **** slingshot (02/27/03; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98555)

**** $381.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (02/27/03; 10:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98525

**** $378.0 **** Mountain Top (02/27/03; 17:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98543)

**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)

**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)

**** $372.7 **** Noble1 (03/03/03; 20:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98819)

**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)

**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)

**** $360.8 **** VanRip (03/03/03; 19:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98814)

**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)

**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $344.0 **** monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787)

**** $340.0 **** kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)

Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J
2/28/03 HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 Yesterday's OI = 107,869
3/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 Yesterday's OI = 105,993

For the SECOND Day in a row, Sir Kevin$ is AGAIN "King of the Hill"

Gandalf the White
(03/03/2003; 23:47:09 MDT - Msg ID: 98830)
OOPS !
That UP-DATE should have said time of 23:40 Denver Time !
<;-(
Gandalf the White
(03/03/2003; 23:58:02 MDT - Msg ID: 98831)
NOTICE the "MACD" graphic at the bottom of THIS CHART !
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!b50!g10!e5!a!h.02,.20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lo14!Lv25!Lw25!Lr14]Looks to be only a SHORT TIME until "BLASTOFF" time again !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/04/2003; 00:03:36 MDT - Msg ID: 98832)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- CONTEST TIME!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlTHE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a "Discussion Statement" !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) APRIL 2003 Gold Contract (GC3J) on the date of Thursday, the 13th of March, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Tuesday, March 11th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY to accompany the Price prognostication,--- EITHER --

A Statement of why you projected that price ---

OR to enter the ESSAY Contest --
An Answer completion of the confession ---

"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . . . . . . . . . . . . ."

THE PRIZES !!

The POG CONTEST rules are set forth below and the WINNING PRIZE will be a GOLDEN "Napoleon the First" (Bonaparte himself) French 20 Franc piece, with 0.1867 ounces of Gold, (and carried at many battles by --guess who), worth about $100. The two "Runners-up's" will each get an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(Rich, Did you see that?)

The "best, most clever, and most devastating" short ESSAY statement (thirty word or more),attached to the POG Prognostication, wins a The Netherlands GOLDEN "King" (King Willem) 10 Guilder gold coin containing 0.1947 ounces of GOLD, while the "Runner- up" gets an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(OK Rich, Did you see that?)
===
LET the CONTESTS continue !
<;-)

Gandalf the White
(03/04/2003; 00:16:44 MDT - Msg ID: 98833)
ATTENTION all you LURKERS and Newbies !! --- COME ON IN !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlJoin the FUN and become wealthy at the same time !! <;-)
===
Just enter either or BOTH Portions of the new CONTEST, and WIN "FREE" Gold and/or Silver !!! To enter, you must have a Free "POSTING PASSWORD". BUT, IF you do not now have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD) --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK above ! He makes it easy and painless too. There WILL be FREE GOLD and Silver given away for the BEST ESSAY and most accurate Price Of Gold (POG) Prognostications.
<;-)
Zenidea
(03/04/2003; 01:48:38 MDT - Msg ID: 98834)
98813
Carl H . immm is that so , tis heresay to be sure . Betwixt me and yea sir I wonder what other boards thee subject doth situate the facets oft of thy round table ?.
Albeit oil on water , and the sun doth colour a rainbow ,
is there a band of gold percieved therein apon all lands in that interesting puddle or is thy perspective differently focused and one sees thyself alookin therein
twat commodity is envisaged within an anathema of hope.
Or is it thee a slippery plot of the perodic table that doth logically meter out thy rumour ?.
TownCrier
(03/04/2003; 01:52:47 MDT - Msg ID: 98835)
Japan spending yen to ride the sliding dollar, more or less
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030303/markets_japan_mof_1.html(Reuters excerpt)
Market sources said the [Japanese] authorities are believed to have intervened in the foreign exchange market on Tuesday. The Bank of Japan, acting as an agent for the Ministry of Finance, was believed to have been buying dollars at around 117.50/55 yen.

Japanese officials are concerned that a strong currency could undermine exports, one of the few bright spots in the economy.

-------(see url)

WHEEEeeeeeeeeee...!

Like it or not, we are all sharing a downward currency slide unless and until we individually choose to step off with gold. Keep the purchasing power you've earned with a regular program of gold diversification. Call USAGOLD - Centennial for assistance.

R.
Topaz
(03/04/2003; 02:19:31 MDT - Msg ID: 98836)
4.65% revisited.....Bonds.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Cfvxy%2Ctnxy%2Cgcg03.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=15&go.y=14The long Bond bumped up against it's previous low last evening and promptly retreated....the Gates of Hell revisited!
Expect to see an all-out effort on the SM this week...and a weakening Dollar (good maybe for PoG).
Meanwhile Euro/Oil/Gold are pretty benign...it's as if the Euro has already been installed as WRC....hmmmm!
TownCrier
(03/04/2003; 02:27:30 MDT - Msg ID: 98837)
Only from Einars Repse, a prince among prime ministers...
http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/current.htmlA bit of gold from the CB Insider:

(excerpt)
------------Answering detractors who said his government was failing in its promises, he observed deadpan, "As it turns out, the government is full of thieves, smugglers, bribe-takers, people who deal with suspicious business partners, foreign services and spies."--------------

Further, there is a good lesson to be found in this following news brief from Norway for anyone who likes to ponder improvements to the model of best management practices for CB reserves, etc.:

------------This year Norway's Treasury is not to get a bean from the central bank, which regrets that, as its accounts show a deficit of 24.1 billion krone for 2002 (compared to a deficit of 4.7 billion in 2001), there won't be much to go round for the government. A press release from the bank explained that the results "must be assessed against the background of Norges Bank's responsibilities", and pointed to how factors outside its control can lead to "wide annual fluctuations" in its accounts, highlighting how the appreciation of the krone set against the bad performance of the stock markets meant that reserves had taken a bit of a tumble. Will this make any difference to the bank's investment strategies, one can only wonder?---------

Click url for this and more worldly news in the latest bi-weekly update from the always insightful and ever entertaining folks at Central Banking Publications Ltd.

R.
Topaz
(03/04/2003; 02:50:43 MDT - Msg ID: 98838)
Euro/Oil/Gold.
If the last 12 Mth's are used as a yardstick for the forseeable? future...wouldn't it be prudent to hold E320 +or- to secure 10 bbl or 1oz Au?
TownCrier
(03/04/2003; 03:16:43 MDT - Msg ID: 98839)
Nice price graph -- WGC weekly update
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlShows movement of gold since the April 2001 low.
mikal
(03/04/2003; 06:57:18 MDT - Msg ID: 98840)
"Money changers" vs user/producer
http://www.yellowtimes.org/article.php?sid=1114''Shooting the money changers''
Printed on Monday, March 03, 2003 @ 01:08:50 EST
By Paul Harris
YellowTimes.org Columnist (Canada)
(YellowTimes.org) � After World War II, a conference at Bretton Woods pegged the value of gold at U.S. $35 per ounce. That artificially established number had the virtue of a fixed target against which the currencies and the productivity of the world's nations could be measured. This allowed for economic stability and for fair and easily understandable international trade.
In one of his most disastrous moves as President of the United States, Richard Nixon abandoned the "gold standard" and allowed the American dollar to float against everyone else's currency. Because of the huge value of American productivity, the U.S. dollar soon became the de facto standard against which everything else was measured. But it was a moving target. To what this has led is 30 or so years of currency speculation that has been a total disaster for all but the strongest players.
In order to value transactions with the rest of the world, the value of a country's currency is related to the value of currencies in other countries by an exchange rate. And exchange rates come in two flavors. With a "floating" system of exchange, the value of a country's currency against that of other countries is allowed to change more or less freely according to the supply and demand for the currency. The supply and demand is, in turn, usually a function of the fundamental value of the country's assets, its productivity rate, political stability, and so on.
Because a floating system has high likelihood of volatility, a large number of countries engage in some sort of "fixing" of the exchange rate. Using the European Monetary System as an example, rates for the Euro can change only within a very narrow margin. This keeps the value of the currency quite stable and it usually only changes because of agreement among the market participants that the present parity is no longer tenable when a supply of the currency is, or is likely to become, greater than the demand for it. Often, the only reason for the change is speculation that it is about to change.
Therein lies the problem. Currency trading dwarfs all other financial transactions. The daily global volume of currency transactions is nearly $1.5 trillion. It is estimated that 80-90 percent of those transactions have nothing to do with the exchange of goods or services or productivity or exploration or development; they are just speculation. Kind of like an international game of craps.
Now some of this trading is at least moderately desirable. Large institutional investors and financial institutions routinely engage in short-term arbitrage transactions where they trade away price differences for the same currency in different markets. These are not, by nature, speculative transactions and are important for the efficient fixing of prices in financial markets and for securing worldwide liquidity.
But speculation is something completely different. It is the deliberate taking of a risk by buying or selling an asset in order to take advantage of an anticipated favorable future price change of the underlying asset. The main problem here is that such a subjective interpretation of future price changes is based on guessing. For currency, it means buying and selling currency that you don't actually ever get with money you never actually had in hopes that your transaction will pay for itself and leave you with a profit. The trouble arises when it doesn't work out that way.
In principle, large-scale speculation is triggered when the fundamental economic and political indicators of a country change. If those indicators have worsened, the central bank of a "fixed rate" country will usually try to defend its currency by selling its foreign exchange reserves for local currency, thereby matching the increased supply of local currency with increased demand. They might also increase domestic interest rates to make holding that currency more attractive. But this kind of defense cannot withstand the thrust of the market for very long.
Global financial speculative behavior has become rampant. Large sums of money are now able to move largely uncontrolled and untaxed around the globe in search of the highest possible return in the shortest possible time. This makes all currencies unstable, particularly those that have been left to float. It makes the financial positions of the smaller or developing countries uncertain and they spend so much of their meager resources trying to protect themselves that they never have the opportunity to get ahead.
Because this speculation is so rampant and so invisible, the possibility of attacks on a country's currency are very real; control of a country's economy by outside sources who usually have no interest in that country is relatively common; a country can suffer a financial crisis totally outside its ability to manage.
None of this has anything to do with value. If I have corn to trade, by negotiating I can convince my neighbor that my corn is worth a certain volume of his carrots and we can make a deal. But trading in currencies, and particularly the speculative trading of those currencies, has almost nothing to do with how many veggies we have grown. It is not much different than buying a lottery ticket except that you may never actually lay out the cash for the ticket.
There are certainly some moral implications to all of this. Wealth that is earned through work is good and desirable; wealth that arises solely from gambling, as currency speculation surely is, is not. The powerful grip that currency trading and currency speculation exercises over global, regional, and national economies is an indication of how little importance is accorded to the fundamental question of social justice. Essentially, human greed has been institutionalized and legitimized.
It is essential that an effective sanctioning mechanism be developed, through taxation, to eliminate this short-term profit behavior; current international policies are insufficient. Presently, the preferred control is maintenance of international financial order by a mix of strengthened reporting requirements for financial institutions (not just banks) combined with an officially sanctioned safety net of (mostly) International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans. However, the IMF has already proved itself ineffective in preventing new currency crises and it does not attack the speculative nature of the money trading. It actually looks more like officially sanctioned speculation that generates private profits and socializes losses that have to be covered by government funding.
Ideally, an instrument that penalizes speculation (such as by taxation) should try to discriminate against and reduce the harmful effects of the system while maintaining its benefits. But, however it is done, we have to get our financial futures out of the hands of the crapshooters.
Waverider
(03/04/2003; 08:12:58 MDT - Msg ID: 98841)
Buffett warns on investment 'time bomb'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2817995.stmSnip:
"The rapidly growing trade in derivatives poses a "mega-catastrophic risk" for the economy and most shares are still "too expensive", legendary investor Warren Buffett has warned. Outstanding derivatives contracts - excluding those traded on exchanges such as the International Petroleum Exchange - are worth close to $85 trillion, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association."

Waverider: Just in case anyone missed this tidbit yesterday. BTW - Spot'n Spike are frisky this morning!
Gene
(03/04/2003; 08:13:46 MDT - Msg ID: 98842)
Vanguard Precious Metals Fund
I have a substantial (for me) investment in this fund. Lately I have become dissatisfied with the performance, largely because the two largest holdings in the fund are the super hedgers, Barrick & Placer Dome. I have e-mailed Mr. John Brennan about this situation several times. I would like to suggest anyone else who feels the way I do to do the same. Maybe together we can get some changes in the portfolio which will be more conducive to better performance.Regards.
White Rose
(03/04/2003; 08:25:40 MDT - Msg ID: 98843)
So what is the e-mail of this gentleman?
I too, have a substantial investment in that fund. What is his e-mail?
a nation of one
(03/04/2003; 08:30:39 MDT - Msg ID: 98844)
the derivative disaster
http://www.fortune.com/fortune/investing/articles/0%2C15114%2C427751%2C00.html
This article concerning Warren Buffet's statements about the nature and liability of derivatives trading is clearly written and very informative.
Broken Tee
(03/04/2003; 09:17:21 MDT - Msg ID: 98845)
test
test
Zhisheng
(03/04/2003; 10:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 98846)
Gold and the Dollar
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=sThere is struggle this morning, over whether the dollar's fall will be temporarily halted at 99.

Gold is as a submerged balloon being held deep under water. The effort to effect this submersion requires capital expended by central banks, and such effort is expended, at bottom, to defend the dollar.

This defense is NOT going well, and has doubtful prospects.
Aristotle
(03/04/2003; 11:05:46 MDT - Msg ID: 98847)
pop quiz
pop quiz
mikal
(03/04/2003; 11:09:04 MDT - Msg ID: 98848)
Analyst dissolves myths
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/chapman030403.htmlIraqnophobia by David Chapman -Excerpts:
"A new word has appeared in our vocabulary. Iraqnophobia - fear of Iraq or fear of terrorism. Lets be clear. By definition, phobias are IRRATIONAL, meaning they interfere with one's everyday life or daily routine. But what appears as IRRATIONAL to most people is very real to those suffering from the phobia. In this case it is a mass phobia, the fear of a terrorist attack involving chemicals or biological weapons. Recently the United States was placed on code 'Orange' or a state of high alert that an attack was imminent.....
But Iraqnophobia is biting. Consumer confidence in the US fell a shocking 15 points in February to 64 from a revised 78.8 in January. Analysts could only scramble to explain this sharp drop due to a falling stock market, blizzards, colder than expected weather resulting in sharply rising fuel prices and of course Iraqnophobia. Consumer confidence had not seen such a sharp drop since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1991 and the Iranian hostage crisis of April 1980.
And it seems that no matter where you turn today it is Iraq 24/7. The UN Security Council is badly split threatening its long-term existence.....
What all this does is it continues to cast a pall over the market that some pundits say is holding the market back. But as we have pointed out in the past that with everything possibly coming apart in global geopolitics (UN, Iraq) and the economy on shaky ground (rising price inflation, slow down in spending, falling consumer confidence, continued pressure on employment, rising budget and trade deficits, high debt levels and a slowing economy) the risk is higher for an accident that triggers an even broader stock market sell off. We have also pointed out that Iraq is merely a cover for an economy that is on shaky ground anyway irrespective of an invasion or no invasion. But the Iraq situation is certainly not helping and adds to the anxiety and therefore Iraqnophobia.
Energy and gold stocks are also feeling the uncertainty. While gold ran to $380 it has since corrected down into the $340 area. Oil prices shot to almost $40 before settling back. Natural Gas prices have been in a strong uptrend mainly because of the weather and shortages. Gold and oil stocks have not followed the upward movement in the commodity confusing many. Some believe that gold and oil stocks will fall sharply once an Iraqi invasion begins as they did in 1991 when the Gulf War started and that may be a part of the reason for the uncertainty. Call it another case of Iraqnophobia but in a different way.
But both sectors are in strong uptrends backed by strong fundamentals. With the US Dollar in full retreat both these commodities priced in US$ are major beneficiaries as are all commodities priced in US$. Rising commodity prices are a major reason we are now seeing inflationary pressures. And rising commodity prices have a negative impact on the consumer, particularly the sharply rising oil and gas prices. The falling US$ is putting pressure on the already huge trade deficit. Some see the trade deficit soon hitting $600 billion per year. Couple this with the possibility of $400 billion budget deficits and the US could soon have trillion dollar deficits or 10% of the entire economy. These numbers are too huge to dismiss easily.
And gold (and other precious metals such as silver) along with oil and gas are commodities with supply problems as well. War or threat of war in the middle east coupled with no major new discoveries in over 30 years keep the pressure on oil prices irrespective of cold weather. New demands including the probable introduction of the Islamic Gold Dinar in 2004 will keep the demand pressure on gold prices. Silver has been drawing from current supplies for years....."
GoldnSilver2002
(03/04/2003; 11:11:57 MDT - Msg ID: 98849)
the smell of fear....barrons
Nice hatchet job by barrons on Royalgold.So what does it mean?The cabal is running out of ammo,they cant even disguise their attacks on gold anymore lol.Each attempt more and more desperate.Warren buffet says derivatives are a ticking timebomb.We live a world of "stick your head in the sand,and it will just go away".I wish i had more usd to sell,but alas i dont.The world is switching to euros and gold.And all the king's horses and all the king's men couldnt put humpty together again.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/04/2003; 11:17:53 MDT - Msg ID: 98850)
Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Alert Investors
PRIMARY TRENDS

Just as the primary trend in gold is up as shown by our nearby
graph, the primary trend in stocks is down. If you diversify your
portfolio with gold, you not only gain by being in gold, you save what
you otherwise would have lost in the stock market. Richard Russell, the
well-regarded long-time investment analyst who has correctly and
consistently forecasted the direction of both markets, says the stock
market and gold will cross in the 2000 to 3000 area
. Think about that
for a moment. What will that mean to your portfolio if not properly
diversified with gold? What will it mean if it is?

Gold to diversify your portfolio is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

TownCrier
(03/04/2003; 11:45:20 MDT - Msg ID: 98852)
HEADLINE: Buffett's trash talk on stocks ignites gold rumors
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/iwon-com/news-story.asp?guid={0805DBD3-F460-4F6C-91DF-29BDA52055E7}SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Just hours after Warren Buffett took his annual bash at stocks and derivatives, bullion investors Tuesday speculated the famed financier was buying gold.

...Gold's price Tuesday at midday in New York was up $4 at $353.30.

Much of the gain, and a corresponding rise in sputtering gold-mining shares, came Tuesday after Andy Smith, a London-based bullion analyst, publicized Buffett's remarks about a derivatives nightmare and the potential for a fiscal meltdown.

"True, the 'G' word does not appear. Except between every line," said Smith Tuesday in a Mitsui Precious Metals report. "The (derivatives) genie is out of the bottle, and you do not have three wishes. Just a potentially toxic, mega-catastrophic mess."

...Smith says he was reluctant to fan the fires among gold bugs, who seemingly embrace any and every rumor that could boost prospects of the long-languishing metal. "I have detected a too-ready willingness to believe this," Smith told me about a Buffett-gold connection, "which is why I nearly did not send it out."

Still, Smith said he detects a growing uneasiness with traditional investments on the part of Buffett, an investor watched by tens of millions of other investors around the world. Buffett in his excerpts from his upcoming annual letter to shareholders, expected on Saturday, was ultra-negative on most stocks.

Other professionals in the bullion world are, like Smith, intrigued but circumspect. "If a 'Buffett buying gold rumor' is circulating, I would be dubious about it," says Ian McAvity, a director of gold repository Central Fund of Canada... "The invisibility of gold and other foreign activity is paramount to most buyers."

-------(see url for text)-----

An interesting and balanced presentation. Notable is Andy Smith's explanation of Berkshire's likely 2% reporting threshold... meaning, up to 150 tonnes could have been accumulated without the company feeling any need for disclosure to investors on that portfolio position.

R.
TownCrier
(03/04/2003; 11:56:20 MDT - Msg ID: 98853)
Sorry about that, Boilermaker
Only at such time as Vanguard starts putting links on their website directing investors toward Centennial will we be able to allow posts that point investors toward them.

I hope that doesn't strike anyone as an unreasonable forum policy with respect to the host.

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/04/2003; 12:06:57 MDT - Msg ID: 98854)
Investing in gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. Any comments about your own internet presence?

MK. First and foremost, USAGOLD / Centennial has always been a brick-and-mortar brokerage headquartered in secure and professional office space here in Denver, Colorado. In function our own website is just a readily-available extension of our advertising and marketing programs. The USAGOLD website further gives us the opportunity to easily provide our clientele with timely market information and commentary.

Zelts
(03/04/2003; 12:11:59 MDT - Msg ID: 98855)
Gold Balloon
Thank you Sir Zhisheng for the excellent metaphor describing the battle between gold and the dollar.
How about this one: pumping air (dollars) into a flat tire(whole system).
Gandalf the White
(03/04/2003; 12:13:45 MDT - Msg ID: 98856)
LOOK --- POG CONTEST --- "KING of the HILL" report for 3/04/03 !
Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
2/28/03 GC3J HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 OI = 105,993
3/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 OI = 104,153
3/04/03 GC3J HIGH = $354.9 low = $349.5 Settlement = $353.3 Change +$4.0 OI = ?

For the FIRST DAY, 2/28, Sir Kevin$ was "King of the Hill"
For the SECOND DAY, 3/3, Sir Kevin$ was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!
For the THIRD DAY, 3/4, Sir Zelts is NOW "King of the Hill" !!!

<<<< SNIP from Entries >>>>

**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $344.0 **** monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787)

**** $340.0 **** kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)
====
Does the TREND appear to be "UP" & "Down", BUT with a BIAS toward "UP" ?
<;-)
Max Rabbitz
(03/04/2003; 12:20:29 MDT - Msg ID: 98857)
Randy and Boilermaker
CPM has no real competition from this fund and I doubt they will ever advertise here. I took all my money out over a year ago and bought physical after writing a letter of similar complaint. I also noted that the directors of this fund had no experience in precious metals but rather had interests and backgrounds in industries that would benefit from low PM prices. I received no answer to my letter.

Buena Fe
(03/04/2003; 12:40:38 MDT - Msg ID: 98858)
puddings
tapioca time

thom calandra's 1000 pointer may soon appear in a market near you
Boilermaker
(03/04/2003; 12:50:36 MDT - Msg ID: 98859)
Randy
I was a bit disappointed with the removal of my message re Vanguard. I'm not sure which rule I violated. My post had to do with their announced closing of their precious metals fund which means they are no longer a competitor for gold oriented investments (at least for the time being).

Boilermaker
The Hoople
(03/04/2003; 13:13:09 MDT - Msg ID: 98860)
GoldnSilver2002, smell of fear indeed
On a day that North Korea basically put the world on annihilation notice, the Nimitz is dispatched post haste to Iraq, Buffet and Munger basically say they know something we don't (yet) about derivative WMD's, and Greenspan declares the housing bubble pricked gold crawls to a $3.90 gain. It is illogical unless you have the knowledge that this site and GATA have provided. I noticed they (media) were implying that Buffet alone had accounted for the 35% POG rise over the last year. Still another BS reason to divert people from truth. Barron's couldn't possibly speak truth. They are bought and paid for shills. The truth about gold is making BB's "quake in their stolen boots" as Marx once said.
Operative
(03/04/2003; 13:21:24 MDT - Msg ID: 98861)
*** $404.50 ***
Excerpt from Operative's Diary

2:00 AM EST Date: (redacted)
I received an urgent phone call from an executive in the gold mining business.
Mr. (redacted) of (redacted) Mining Corp had been referred to our office by (redacted). He was seeking our services in order to remove 30 tons of gold purchased from a bank but unable unable to obtain local governmental permission
for clearance through customs. A meeting was set up on (redacted)at the (redacted) hotel in the Canary Islands to meet and discuss how we might be of service.

Background:

The executive arrived in at the hotel carrying a large legal briefcase of documents. Upon discussing his current situation and reviewing the provided documents it was clear that he did indeed own the gold purchased from the Bank of Portugal. It was also clear from the documents that the executive had sold forward a large amount of his mine's production. It was not clear, to me at least, the details of this process called "hedging" in his industry. It all seemed extremely complicated and perhaps designed to be obtuse.

The price of gold had risen rather sharply in recent months and several of the hedged contracts became redeemable. As fortune, or lack of, would have it the executive's company did not have the physical gold to make good on the contracts. He was able to arrange a purchase of 30 tons from a bank and actually
had completed delivery of the gold which had been temporarily placed in a Lisbon warehouse in order to prepare the gold for private charter shipment out of the country.

The Problem:

One day after accepting delivery the executive received notice from the banks legal dept. It appears that a "mistake" had been made since the bank officer had no legal grounds to actually sell the gold to a private party. The letter offered to refund the money upon return of the gold to the bank with a 5 percent handling charge for any expenses the executive had incurred during this "misunderstanding ". The letter also pointed out that any attempts to remove the gold from the country would be met with complete confiscation by customs and no monies would be paid. The executive required the gold to satisfy contractual commitments and felt he had been misled by the bank and intended to attempt to take his paid for gold home with him. A plan was developed to undertake the mission and a fee paid in the amount of (redacted) million dollars.

The Operation:

Another warehouse was rented nearby where the gold was stored. Half a dozen high temperature ovens, 4 tons of clay, and 60 tons of common paving bricks were purchased. The gold bars were coated with a mixture of clay and baked giving them the appearance of brick paving stones. The "gold bricks" were interspersed with normal bricks. While this process was underway another team member secured the bill of lading and proper documentation to ship by sea the almost 90 tons of paving bricks to South Africa. Upon delivery of the "product" to the shipping yard, and confirmation that the order had been loaded upon the ship, the executive and our team members departed the country and returned home.

Final Disposition:

The products never arrived to South Africa. An operative was sent back to Portugal to investigate the situation. A bribe of (redacted) was paid to a local custom official who provided documents of the ships entire manifest. It appears that an error in delivery had taken place.. There were 3 shipments labeled as brick/stone. My guess is the gold, now incased in clay brick form, is one of three places. A new lobby of a bank in England. A new bathroom floor for a large villa in Greece. The third choice is a renovation of a shopping mall in Boston.

Update:
Approximately 5 weeks have passed since the lost shipment. Talks with the executive and his company for additional money in order to follow up on the missing gold shipment have stalled. Recent phone calls have not been returned and recent news story show the executive has been fired.
Also of interest is a recent news release by the Bank of Portugal of a "sale" of 30 tons of gold.


pinetree
(03/04/2003; 13:24:43 MDT - Msg ID: 98862)
GENE Vanguard precious metal funds
Early last year I noticed vgpmx was not performing like most of the other gold funds. While most gold funds were increasing in value, vgpmx was hardly moving. Like you I wrote to the president of Vanguard. Several weeks later I received a very vanilla form letter reply from some assistant to the assistant of the president. About the same time I began to noticed that I wasn't receiving confirmations and reports from another fund I have with vanguard. With the poor showing of vgpmx and this unusual mail problem, I sold my vgpmx which I had for several years and bought Gabelli gold fund. Now like magic my reports from Vanguard are arriving on time and the performance for goldx makes very pleasant reading.
ElGordo
(03/04/2003; 13:27:50 MDT - Msg ID: 98863)
The Kondratieff winter is here, and it is getting colder.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/anon/anon030403.htmlsnippet:

"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966.

"There can be no question that the US economy is at its most critical juncture since the Great Depression of the 1930's. With both the cause and pattern of the present downturn diametrically different from those of prior recessions, it should be clear that past experience cannot help in accessing what is to come." The Richebacher Letter, October 2002.

"Sharp rise in US job losses adds to gloom." "Fears grow over faltering global rebound as Germany and UK also report bleak economic news." Front Page headline: The Financial Times Jan 11/12 2003 "US job losses increased sharply last month, adding to concerns about the weakening global economy recovery. The 101,000 decline in payrolls was the largest since February and surprised Wall Street... US job losses last year reached 181,000 the worst since the end of the 1991 recession. Losses in the manufacturing sector became more widespread. Makers of aircraft, cars, computers and films experienced some of the biggest percentage declinesin employment along with restaurants, bars, retailers and banks." Ibid.. The Kondratieff winter is here, and it is getting colder.

The economy has only just begun its slide into the Long Wave depression, and already excessive debt is leading to significant bankruptcies. As the recession deepens, and it will, the pace of bankruptcies will increase markedly. It is akin to a landslide that starts from a single rock dislodged from the top of a steep hill. Once the Kondratieff winter debt landslide is set in motion there is nothing that will stop it until it has run its course.
__________
This article makes a good case for gold.
TownCrier
(03/04/2003; 13:31:08 MDT - Msg ID: 98864)
HEADLINE: U.S. Treasury's Snow says deficit fears overblown
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=2324935WASHINGTON, March 4 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, preparing to defend White House tax-cutting plans before Congress, charged on Tuesday that some lawmakers were using future deficit increases as an excuse for opposition.

..."Even (Federal Reserve) Chairman (Alan) Greenspan, something of a deficit hawk, has said the current deficits are not of a level to create any disruptions in the financial markets," Snow said.

..."They don't disrupt financial markets, they don't lead to higher interest rates and they're clearly manageable," Snow said. "The fact of the matter is a lot of people up there (on Capitol Hill) don't want the [tax] plan, and the deficit is an argument that is convenient but it's not a substantive attack on the merits of the plan."

He said projected deficits, amounting to about 3 percent of total national output, were "not monumental by historical standards" though he said it was true that there will be deficits "for some years to come."

-------(see url for article)-------

Snow, Greenspan... it is the nature of the job to give assurance and say all is well. Nobody wants to see a panic, nor would they want to induce one during their own watch.

It is fair enough, technically, to say as Snow did that the current deficits are not of a level to create any disruptions in the financial markets. (It's not like the Treasury is trying to sell $5 trillion of new debt to the investors in any given year.) However, with deficits expected for years to come adding to the accumulated debtload from years past, it is a change in the collective mindset of the perennial bond buyers and holders that would precipitate a market "disruption" should they decide to sell en masse -- regardless of the current budget.

Diversify your portfolio to limit your exposure.

R.
Black Blade
(03/04/2003; 13:40:07 MDT - Msg ID: 98865)
Apocalypse is nigh, Buffett tells Berkshire faithful
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2003/03/04/cnbuff04.xml&sSheet=/money/2003/03/04/ixcity.html
Snippit:

Warren Buffett is poised to issue his most doom-laden forecast for the state of the world economy yet, including a damning verdict on the derivatives industry he fears could cause a global financial crisis. In the upcoming annual letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Mr Buffett drops his usual folksy style to warn that banks do not understand the hidden risks lurking on their balance sheets. He labels derivatives "time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system" and "financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal".

"Despite three years of falling prices which have significantly improved the attractiveness of common stocks, we still find very few that even mildly interest us. That dismal fact is testimony to the insanity of the valuations reached during the Great Bubble. Unfortunately, the hangover may prove to be proportional to the binge," he writes. Until now vague warnings about the pyramid nature of derivatives contracts have led to bland assurance from banks that there is no threat to their stability. Mr Buffett says the banks simply have no idea what their exposure could be. "When Charlie [Munger, his business partner] and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don't understand how much risk the institution is taking."

Derivatives are often complex financial instruments that allow investors to take bets on anything from share prices to the weather. Their range is limited, says Mr Buffett, "only by the imagination of man, or sometimes, so it seems, madmen". Enron was especially fond of derivatives, offering contracts that would be settled years in the future and claiming profits immediately.


Black Blade: That last paragraph sounds ominously like what Barrick says about its forward sales structure � ouch! The Buffett story and the derivatives mess is getting some exposure in the financial media today.

Black Blade
(03/04/2003; 13:55:59 MDT - Msg ID: 98866)
Retirement: It's going to cost you
http://money.cnn.com/2003/02/28/retirement/costs/index.htm
Most people have grossly underestimated how much they'll need to save for their golden years.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Americans spend a lot of time fantasizing about all the fun they'll have when they retire. But the daydreams almost never include the ugly reality: just how much those extended vacations are going to cost. According to a survey by the American Savings Education Council (ASEC), more than half of all workers anticipate they'll need less than 70 percent of their pre-retirement income during their golden years � an estimate that's unrealistic for even the most disciplined budgeters. "People often wrongly assume that their expenses are going to come down when they retire, but in fact they often go up," said Don Blandin, ASEC's president. "Depending on how long you live, the kinds of medical problems you have and the kind of lifestyle you want, you may need 120 percent of your current income during retirement."

Black Blade: Retirement the "unachievable dream". Many will never be able to afford to retire after having their hopes and dreams dashed by the fraud of Wall Street. It reminds me of the old story where a banker and a client go down to the marina in New York City. The banker points and says "those are the bankers and brokers yachts". The client asks "where are the clients yachts?" In short the only one who will look out for your interests is yourself. Always look out for number one. Diversify with a bit of PM insurance.

TownCrier
(03/04/2003; 14:04:09 MDT - Msg ID: 98867)
Boilermaker -- investment services and competition
If Jed and Granny strike oil, and are directed to the V-Guard Group with their newfound wealth, I'm sure V-Guard brokers would be happy to find an investment placement for each and every one of Jed's dollars. That's a serious competitor. And specifically regarding their most "goldish" fund, the one in question, they haven't yet shut the door as you've implied. Take another look at the first sentence in your origianl link: "...closed the fund to all new investments effective at the close of business on June 28." That is fully four months of free promotions that we (the forum) have no obligation to provide for them for this fund, nor afterward for any other investments they might wish to provide.

I should hasten to add that this applies only to the forum. You may in fact find in direct consultation with the brokers at Centennial they just might gently point you toward an investment competitor like this as part of an overall investment/diversification strategy -- once your physical metal needs have been prudently attended to. However, if we (at the forum) facilitate steering someone away before they have a personal chat with our host, then we've provided a disservice to our host. That's the important distinction. Seem fair enough?

Thanks for your interest and support!

R.
Boilermaker
(03/04/2003; 14:19:40 MDT - Msg ID: 98868)
Randy
The Vanguard PM fund was closed 6/28/02, 8 months ago.
Your rule #4 states
"Promotional posts in general.
Examples include promotion of your organization, yourself (includes posting e-mail addresses), a company you work for or invest in, and promotion of internet sites and businesses that compete directly with USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals'

Does this mean that any firm that accepts investors money such as a bank or brokerage or real estate firm, cannot be linked in our messages? I thought it referred to PM oriented businesses.

But, not to whine. I accept the removal and let's move on. You do a wonderful job and I do not wish to cause you grief over such a minor matter.

Cheers,
Boilermaker
TownCrier
(03/04/2003; 14:23:49 MDT - Msg ID: 98869)
Watch the euro... Peeks above $1.09
http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1046806088nN04520829&tit=Euro%2Fdollar%20peeks%20above%20$1.09&type=internazionali&ling=EN(Reuters) -- Euro/dollar stages short-covering bounce above $1.09 figure, but unable to press to new highs after abortive run at February's 4-year high at 1.0938 leads to some capitulation selling. Dealers report options-related resistance in $1.0950 region, but expect a test of $1.10 as soon as this week as Iraq war fears reach full boil.

-----(from url)-----

As you contemplate a rising euro or rising gold, bear in mind self-reinforcing market actions (i.e., falling dollar expectations give rise to liquidation actions which confirm the expectations which drive more selling action, etc) particularly where a pardigm shift may be brought about in such a way that there is no "oversold" condition to rebound from or otherwise justify a two-way market. That is a reason to own gold if ever there was one.

R.
21mabry
(03/04/2003; 14:33:43 MDT - Msg ID: 98870)
Warren Buffett
MR. Buffett could buy 1 billion worth of gold and demand delievery,I would think that would throw markets into chaos,goverment would never allow it.The person who does such a thing may be taking a chance with his or her very life.
Waverider
(03/04/2003; 14:40:24 MDT - Msg ID: 98871)
VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlShort Snip:
"Gold gained on a weakening U.S. dollar and continued rising geopolitical tensions. Another positive for gold could be the difference between inflation and nominal interest rates. Even though the "official" inflation rate is very low, "real" interest rates are even lower, actually the "real" interest rate is negative. When "real" interest rates, accounting for the difference between inflation and nominal interest rates dip into negative territory, the price of gold should rise. Real rates have not slipped into negative territory since the late 1970's and 1980's. In the past when real rates were negative gold gained more than 30% on an annualized basis."
sector
(03/04/2003; 15:03:06 MDT - Msg ID: 98872)
Dollar Falls to Near 4-Year Low Against Euro on War Concerns
New York, March 4 (Bloomberg)03/04 07:35

By Mark Tannenbaum

New York, March 4 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar approached the weakest level in almost four years against the euro on speculation the U.S. will attack Iraq with or without United Nations backing.

``The U.S. seems ready to go it alone even if they can't get support, which would rattle the dollar,'' said Haydn Davies, chief economist in London at Barclays Global Investors, which oversees about 580 billion pounds ($918 billion). The firm has favored euros over dollars ``for some time'' and sees ``no reason to change.''
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Major Currency Dollar Index is 93.83 as of 4:33PM March 4, 2003. The Euro at 1.0883.

The down-trend in the MCDI has shown an unbroken R^2 value above .9 with an end-of-year intersect at 73. Although it's early in the year, this MCDI down trend is very solid. It began its linear down slope with the termination of Paul O�Neill and Lawrence Lindsay. The Euro levelled off in Feb and now is headed back up. There are behind-the-scenes thingys happening here with the weak dollar and the strong Euro and the maybe weakening yen.

Beware the voices that whisper that "Gold has been decoupled from the dollar" and "Gold shares don't track the metal any more" ...because "It's a new paradigm" and ..."Gold is not the place to be". The S&P said as much about gold funds in this morning's "volatility warning". Anyone who disagrees with the administrative powers is demonized.

France, Germany�gold bugs. Huh? Have gold bugs achieved so much inherent power that we can now prompt the S&P into firing warning shots?

Better buy some more.



misetich
(03/04/2003; 15:03:52 MDT - Msg ID: 98873)
Auto Sales Fell to Lowest Rate in 4 1/2 Years
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/04/business/04AUTO.htmlSnip:

DETROIT, March 3 � Sales of the lucrative, gas-guzzling giants of the auto industry � the Escalades, Excursions, Suburbans and other big sport utility vehicles � are sliding, according to figures released today.

Analysts said that rising gas prices and a drumbeat of criticism of S.U.V.'s figure in the slowing sales. But the biggest culprit, they said, is a new wave of small and medium-size sport utilities from Asian automakers that are chipping away at a crucial profit center for the domestic auto industry.
..................

"Unless they're going to offer them two for one, I don't see how they're going to keep up the sales rates they had been so optimistic about," said Diane C. Swonk, an economist at Bank One. "At some point in time, we have market saturation."
**********
Misetich

The auto and housing industry were the "bastions" of the US economy in 2002 - both are showing signs of saturation - The slowdown effect won't be a pretty sight

What is holding up the US $?

Got gold?
misetich
(03/04/2003; 15:09:11 MDT - Msg ID: 98874)
China plans $10bn oil reserve
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2814825.stmSnip:

China is considering setting up a $10bn (�6.3bn) fund to purchase oil for a strategic reserve, reports in the state media said.
A strategic reserve could be financed out of the country's rapidly-growing foreign exchange reserves, the official China Daily newspaper reported.

..........
Misetich

Both China and Europe are increasing oil reserves as US inventories are almost at all time lows-

Selling US $ and buying Real Assets such as Oil and Gold is becoming a trendy thing...

Got gold?

misetich
(03/04/2003; 15:22:52 MDT - Msg ID: 98875)
US boosts forces near N Korea
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2820469.stmSnip:

The United States is ordering extra military forces to the western Pacific to boost defences near North Korea.

The move comes amid heightened tension with Pyongyang, following Monday's interception of a US surveillance plane by four North Korean fighter jets in international airspace.
................
Misetich

Gold is poised to explode in days to come as the geopolitical scene heats up - the US and Britain are going head to head with Russia, China, Europe and the majority of Gulf States and North Korea situation getting hotter and hotter by the minute

All Onboard on the Gold Bull Express

Got gold?

Boilermaker
(03/04/2003; 15:25:24 MDT - Msg ID: 98876)
*******$362.40*******
"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it because it was available. The transaction was a business arrangement that I undertook for a client in the Middle East. You see, I am a crude oil broker who arranges for tankers to deliver crude from Middle East sellers (my clients) to Western buyers. One of my clients had given me a challenge in the conduct of doing sales for him. It seems that he will only accept Euros for his oil. I was recently approached by a buyer who was interested in obtaining 10 million barrels of crude to top off his Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Apparently he was expecting war to break out in the ME and that a disruption in oil production would occur. Unfortunately the buyer was adamant about using dollars for the purchase.

Wanting to conclude this sale, I thought perhaps my ME client might accept a universal currency, gold, for these shipments. Upon explaining the situation with him he thought for a moment and I noticed a sly grin cross his face just before he nodded his assent. Then I proceeded to contact the buyer with this alternative means of payment. Their response was stony silence followed by a polite but firm "impossible".

Not to be discouraged by this impasse, the new challenge was to find a way to convert dollars to gold without revealing the conversion to my client (who has a bad temper). I have been a follower of the gold wars for many years and knew that European CB's have been disgorging their gold at 400 tonnes per year under the Washington Agreement. All I needed was a paltry 30 tonnes that would convert the $350 million currency to gold for my client. I contacted the Swiss who have been the major sellers at 6 tonnes per week but was told that their sales were "prearranged" and none was available to the open market. I decided to contact the BIS to see if they knew of a source. They were not at all helpful but a secretary there suggested that I call the Bank of Portugal because she had recently noticed lots of correspondence with them regarding their gold holdings and thought they might be preparing to sell some.

When I contacted the BOP I learned that they indeed were preparing a sale and that an undisclosed buyer had already spoken it for. A good friend of mine in Lisbon knows a BOP insider who could provide the identity of the buyer for a "finder's fee". The fee paid, I learned that the gold was to have been purchased anonymously for the account of a wealthy ME ruler, to be delivered to a destination in Libya. I was astonished to learn that the buyer was my own client. However, the insider told me that when the BOP learned the identity of the buyer they reneged on the deal and were negotiating with alternate buyers. Using the identity of another wealthy ME client I was able to arrange the purchaseof the Portuguese gold. My reward? A modest commission, 1.5 tonnes. Everyone is happy. My garden grows ever more wealth. Life is good.

misetich
(03/04/2003; 15:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 98877)
US Consumer Confidence Declining- Fear In Check?
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htmSnip:

Fear In Check?...We have produced a series of charts that we hope help explain what the American public may now be in the process of beginning to discount. As you know, the American public has been walking away from equity mutual funds in slow motion fashion for a good seven or eight months now. Yet they have continued to borrow and spend for homes, cars, etc. In our minds, that borrowing and spending could not have occurred without a certain psychological conviction that the labor market would again revive in a relatively short term time frame. It may just be that the current drop in consumer confidence is measuring a perceptual or psychological give up on the part of households relating directly to jobs. Again, as you know, this has been a long time coming despite layoff pressure and continuing high levels of jobless claims data that has steadfastly refused to improve on what is going on close to two years now.
*********
Misetich

As mortgage refinancing slows and layoffs increase its difficult to invision consumer spending holding up -

What is going to happen to the overvalued US stock market and the ovevalued US $ if the bastion (2/3 of US economy ) slows down?

All Onboard On The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?





TownCrier
(03/04/2003; 15:38:54 MDT - Msg ID: 98878)
Boilermaker, thanks for the 2002 vs '03 clarification
I made the mistake of assuming the article was current. A good reminder for me to always check the fine print. My general guidance holds, though, regardless of year.

Imagine a group of stock brokers or futures brokers or derivative/investment bankers sitting around having a slow day at the office. I don't think anyone here would be happy to see a bunch of Wall Street's most desperate (or aggressive) brokers touting their particular brand of wares, with or without contact info. In essence they would be trying to lure your attention and investment dollars away from physical gold and into something that would support their own postions. The problem we face with an anonymous posting board is we don't know who might be a broker trolling for customers and who is simply an interested investor trying to broaden his scope of study and discussion. As a general rule, then, we must settle for a policy as near as we can muster that prohibits the abuses without unduly affecting the majority of participants.

To a large extent we have been able to leave it to our participants to intuitively know where to draw the line in the context of their investment discussions.

Basically, if a person has a desire to post pro-"Wall Street" investments and commentary, we expect that would be done at another forum -- one devoted to that purpose. Otherwise, a post appearing here that directs traffic or attention to typical Wall Street services would be generally viewed with suspicion (a possible wolf in sheep's clothing(?)) and discouraged. Again, since we rely heavily on your voluntary cooperation to limit the potential abuses in a forum like this, I hope this all seems clear; though I am sure it is clearest only to anyone walking a mile in Centennial's moccasins -- anyone trying to run a successful business in a world of cutthroat competition. We simply don't want to make it any easier for the competition on Centennial's dime.

R.
steady
(03/04/2003; 15:47:18 MDT - Msg ID: 98880)
ElGordo re: The Kondratieff winter is here, and it is getting colder.
Did you ever dream of what you could be? the president, a superstar or maybe on t.v., but what ever happend to those dreams? you can paint pictures in your mind for you to bring back anytime. when your castles are in the air
and suddenly there not there
you wonder how u got out here at all,
so welcome to the cold cruel world how do u like the temperature out here? bet u never thought it could be this cold.

gold and silver honest money for honest people!
misetich
(03/04/2003; 16:05:23 MDT - Msg ID: 98881)
US opposes Iranian forces in Iraq
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/TGD/tgdBreakingNewsDisplay/0,,3,00.htmlSnip:

The United States has said it knows that Iranian-backed Iraqi opposition forces had moved into northern Iraq and was opposed to their presence. Advance elements of the Badr Brigade of the opposition Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq have set up an encampment in the Kurdish region. "We're aware of that. ... We're against any Iranian presence in northern Iraq or any group that reflects Iranian presence in northern Iraq," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher told a daily briefing.
********
Misetich

Iraq the pandora box?

US and Britain are counting on a "quick end" to the Iraqui Oil Rape - Is it really going to be that simple? Wouldn't surprise one bit if the US and Britain invade Iraq without UN backing and finding the Russians, Turks, Iranians and others move in to defend their "national interests". As the Iraq Pandora Box unfolds before our eyes we say..

All Onboard The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?
Bulldog
(03/04/2003; 16:18:52 MDT - Msg ID: 98882)
Natural Gas Prices
I just paid the February bill for my residence and it was
$300.77 for the month. My supplier was just approved for a 25% increase. This in Alberta, our country's biggest exporter of natural gas. What are the rest of North Americans paying during this cold snap? We have had a mild winter until the last two weeks and it is now bitterly cold. I note that the other day, Toronto Ontario had their coldest day ever since 1885.
I think the inflation train just left the station.
Boilermaker
(03/04/2003; 16:33:10 MDT - Msg ID: 98883)
Time to talk Kurds with the Turkeys?
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=586&e=1&cid=586&u=/nm/20030304/wl_nm/iraq_turkey_dcWith Turk's rejection of US troops on their property, knowing Kurds own Northern Iraq, Turks scared of the Kurds, US needs a northern base, there's got to be some leverage for US deployment with a Kurdish alliance. Nah, too radical. Kurds might want $50 billion. Oh well, lets buy some more metal and watch the lemmings run.

I'm hoping the whole show gets shut down and we can go back to the opening of the Greatest Depression without the war thing. Buy some CPM gold for intermission time.

Boilermaker
Sundeck
(03/04/2003; 16:47:27 MDT - Msg ID: 98884)
US Dollar
Wow, the dollar just dropped half a percent...what's up?
misetich
(03/04/2003; 17:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 98885)
US Treasury Snow Job - Lies, Deceit , Misinformation, Disinformation
http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4593191∾tion=articleSnow says net cost of dividend tax cut plan to be half 370 bln usd estimated

Snip:
WASHINGTON (AFX) - US Treasury Secretary John Snow said the cost of President George Bush's plan to abolish the double taxation of dividends will only be around half the 370 bln usd originally estimated.
..........
Snow said he will be looking to convince lawmakers this afternoon, when he testifies in front of the House Ways & Means Committee, that the dividend tax plans amount to "good economics".
In any case, Snow stressed again that the budget deficits foreseen over the coming years are "modest and manageable" in terms of GDP. The Treasury is forecasting record nominal budget deficits over the coming two years, even before accounting for the costs of any war in Iraq.
Snow said President Bush's 695 bln usd overall tax cut plan will create 2 mln new jobs by the end of 2004 and add some 2 percentage points to GDP over that time as well.
********
Misetich
Investors worlwide have been "Snowed" for years by unrealistic projections by the US Treasury - from phantom surpluses to "manageable deficits" to outright alleged maninpulation of commodities and currency markets

It is interesting that O'Neil is very critical of Bush's economic team policies as government deficits are getting out of control.

Sooner rather than later the US credit card is going to be canceled by foreigners as the irresponsible fiscal management and policies of the US Treasury and Federal Reserve Bank comes into clear focus

All On Board The Gold Bull Express - Gold is "Real Money"

Got gold?


darkman
(03/04/2003; 17:05:07 MDT - Msg ID: 98886)
http://reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=2326305≠wsType=usDollarRpt&menuType=currencies TOKYO, March 5 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to multi-year lows against the euro and Swiss franc on Wednesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said he was unruffled by its recent weakness.

"I'm not particularly concerned about that," Snow said when asked by reporters whether he was worried about the dollar's fall since the meeting of G7 finance ministers on February 21-22.

"The dollar is going to rise and fall some. There's nothing unusual about this, nothing alarming about it," Snow said after a House ways and means committee hearing.

The euro rose to a four-year high of of $1.0967 from $1.0885/90 in late U.S. trade, hitting a key stop-loss point of $1.0950. Some traders said the currency could test $1.10 soon.

The dollar also dropped to another four-year low of around 1.3310 francs from 1.3395/05 and also dropped more than a half yen to 117.30 yen .

"
TownCrier
(03/04/2003; 17:12:19 MDT - Msg ID: 98887)
Euro hits 4-year high vs dollar on Snow comments
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030304/markets_forex_dollar_1.htmlWhat comments?
When asked by reporters if he was worried about the dollar's fall over the past 10 days, U.S. SecTreas Snow replied, "I'm not particularly concerned about that. ... The dollar is going to rise and fall some. There's nothing unusual about this, nothing alarming about it." Further, "The dollar is in the marketplace and everything in the marketplace goes up some and falls some. It's within normal ranges. I don't see anything troubling about it."

The article linked above adds the following:

(excerpts)
NEW YORK, March 4 (Reuters) - The euro surged in thin market action to a four-year high against the dollar late on Tuesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said he was not concerned with the recent decline in the greenback's value.

"There is always this issue of the administration basically having a position that the markets determine the exchange rate and I think that was probably what was indicated today," said Robert Sinche, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Citibank in New York. "Traders may want to interpret something out of that but I think it would be a mistake to do so. But that is certainly the knee-jerk reaction."

----(see url)----

Take one guess why Robert Sinche of Citibank stood forward to downplay the currency movement. As global head of foreign exchange, do you think he just might a position? An opinion bias? Naaaaw...

R.
ElGordo
(03/04/2003; 17:12:28 MDT - Msg ID: 98888)
@Sundeck- Snow on the dollar
Tokyo, March 5 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to its lowest level in almost four years against the euro after U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said he was ``not particularly concerned'' about the currency, which has dropped 20 percent in the past year against its European counterpart.

The dollar fell to $1.0964 against the euro at 8:06 a.m., from $1.0925 late yesterday in New York, after reaching $1.0969, its weakest level since March 19, 1999. The dollar also fell against the yen, to 117.28 from 117.65.

Speaking to reporters following a hearing before the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee, Snow said, ``the dollar is going to rise and fall.'' The Treasury secretary last month reiterated the U.S.'s support for a strong dollar.

Snow's comments show ``that the U.S. is moving away from a strong dollar policy,'' said Paul McNee, chief currency trader at Australia and New Zealand Banking Corp. in Melbourne. ``This is as concrete an example of that as possible.'' The dollar's fall to $1.10 against the euro ``is a foregone conclusion. It should happen today.''
_________
Go Gold

misetich
(03/04/2003; 17:15:06 MDT - Msg ID: 98889)
US consumer confidence down March 2 week-ABC/Money
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=2326278Snip:

NEW YORK, March 4 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence edged lower this week after increasing for the past three weeks, a survey published on Tuesday showed, with respondents rating economic weakness as their primary concern.
.........
Only 28 percent of Americans rated the economy in excellent or good shape, down from 30 percent in the previous week. They cited War fears and an anemic job market.
********
Misetich

Worth repeating " They cited War fears and an anemic job market."

The "real economy" is beginning to come to light - All government hedonics and manipulation cannot stop the truth! as the urnavelling of the house of cards

Unemployment is much, much higher rather the 6% being reported. Allegedly millions out of work are not included as unemployed. Jobs are scarce and debt levels on all time high both corporate and personal.

The US $ is being "managed" by superficial means and perception. It is not reflective of the real strength of the US economy and the growing twin deficits.

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?
misetich
(03/04/2003; 17:22:55 MDT - Msg ID: 98890)
U.S. layoff plans grew in Feb. - Challenger report
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=2323762Snip:

NEW YORK, March 4 (Reuters) - Layoff plans at U.S. firms rose for the second straight month, suggesting that a rebound in the nation's wobbly labor market is unlikely before the end of the year.In a fresh indication that U.S. companies are still firing workers, corporate managers announced 138,177 job cuts in February, up 5 percent from January's 132,222, employment research firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a report.
"It is doubtful a turnaround in hiring can be expected before fall, if then," said John Challenger, the research group's chief executive officer, in a statement.
*********
Misetich

Unemployment numbers are reportedly being fudged by the BLS - no wonder they abandoned reporting mass layoffs.

Markets are poised to thumb down this continued facitous reporting

All On Boar The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?



Believer
(03/04/2003; 17:29:21 MDT - Msg ID: 98891)
My Prognostical Specification is:
****388.8****
"Yes I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it because I needed it to build a bomb shelter. First I would lay-up the gold bars and silver- solder the joints. Then I would DuctTape The inside cracks to prevent chemical or biological agents from seeping in. The Gold will shield me from unwanted radiation and the DuctTape adhesive inhibits the biologicals. It slows them down and they get stuck in the adhesive.
When It is safe to come back out, I would sell 1/2 of my bomb shelter and buy the Upper Peninsula in Michigan to run my water farm and packaging plant. We will export 4 oz. cartons of water to the ME @ $100/ container. I would then payoff the US national Debt and organize home building parties for the homeless. (some 175 million in the US)
All This I would have done If I had gotten the whole 30 tonnes, but wouldn't you know, there were only 14 tonnes and a marker from the Federal Reserve.
It seems that this was the leaset that they could do under these circumstances
misetich
(03/04/2003; 17:30:36 MDT - Msg ID: 98892)
U.S. chain store sales fell in latest week-report
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=2322882Snip:

NEW YORK, March 4 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store sales decreased during the fourth week of February because of severe winter weather, a report said on Tuesday.Sales at major U.S. chain stores fell 0.2 percent in the week ended March 1 compared with the same week a year ago, the report said.
Sales declined 2.0 percent in the four weeks ended March 1, compared with the previous month, Instinet Research said in its weekly Redbook report.
*******
Misetich

Auto sales are down, housing inventories are rising, retail sales are down - and the spin is War worries, bad weather -

In the meantime Reality Check says consumers are tapped out as debt payments, job scarcity, vanishing portfolio and retirment values, increased energy costs, and general cost of living - such as housing, food -
Government deficits at all levels, local, state and federal are out of hand as tax revenes dwindle

Bottom Line - consumer disposal income is being eaten up - the refincing "band-aid" is wearing off -

All On Board On The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?
misetich
(03/04/2003; 17:39:33 MDT - Msg ID: 98893)
ANALYSIS-The financial cost of a war with Iraq
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=2321876Snip:

Conservative calculations, which assume a swift campaign that emulates the speed of the 1991 Gulf War, pitch in at around $100 billion, equivalent to one percent of U.S. gross domestic product.
If the war gets bogged down, however, in street-to-street fighting to take Baghdad, costs would rise.
Throw in the nightmare of chemical or biological warfare, rebuilding the country and sticking around for the next 10 years to encourage Middle East stability, and some see an astronomical bill of $1.6 trillion for U.S. taxpayers.
That's just for America. With British forces likely to take part in any U.S.-led attack on Iraq, there would also be a heavy cost for Britain.
These numbers are not coming from the White House. U.S. President George W. Bush, who wants to cut taxes, has remained silent on a subject that could hurt this key goal.
..........

Nor do the numbers include grants for key allies Turkey or Israel which stand to receive $6 billion and $4 billion respectively from Washington. And don't forget Jordan, promised over $1 billion, or Egypt which wants access to U.S. export markets.
All of this is to be financed on top of a U.S. deficit which Bush already projects at a record $304 billion this year and $307 billon in fiscal 2003/2004.
..........
**********
Misetich

US debt to the penny is $6.4 trillions and growing in gargantulan proportion - Service Costs are not included in current year deficits and neither are many off-budget items

$7 trillions at the end of 2003 is not farfetched

How long will foreigners keep on providing credit ad infinitum?

All On Boar The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?
White Hills
(03/04/2003; 17:48:47 MDT - Msg ID: 98894)
Kuwait
Just caught a little of the report on Fox,it seems that Kuwait are shutting down some of their oilfields in order to protect them from any action Iraq may make in coming War. This should make oil prices go even higherIt would seem that war is very close. White Hills
misetich
(03/04/2003; 17:52:03 MDT - Msg ID: 98895)
Dollar falters after Snow shrugs off recent falls
http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=2326462≠wsType=usDollarRpt&menuType=currenciesSnip:
Tue March 4, 2003 07:26 PM ET
0018 GMT -- Dollar faltering across the board in early Asia after U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said he was not concerned about its fall in last two weeks. -- Snow's apparent indifference to dollar's weakness shocked bulls who have been betting Washington is keen to maintain strong dollar policy when it appears to start countdown on war in Iraq. -- Dollar plunging to four-year lows against euro and Swiss franc and three-year low versus Australian dollar. -- Euro rises as high as $1.0986, up about a full cent from $1.0885/90 in late U.S. trade. --
********
Misetich

The strong US $ policy in unsustainable as CB's 16,000 tons of gold has vanished in thin air. Thanks Sector

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?
CoBra(too)
(03/04/2003; 18:14:31 MDT - Msg ID: 98896)
@ TC - a.k.a. Randy
Young fellow, you'll excuse a little banter from an elderly guy!

Sometimes I do find your remarks vs some posters a bit abrasive. That's not the problem, as the reality is that your stance is a bit shortsighted.

I'm pretty sure that MK has not designed this great forum to advance his biz alone - as biz comes anyway to the fair dealers in a market bein' short of fair and of reality, of course!

I will conclude my last post ... with the best wishes for CPM/USA Gold to further succeed.

... as I sign off cb2

silvercollector
(03/04/2003; 18:30:36 MDT - Msg ID: 98897)
300,000 US troops in Gulf
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/ap/20030305/ap_on_re_mi_ea/us_iraq_military&e=1&ncid=
Chris Powell
(03/04/2003; 18:40:05 MDT - Msg ID: 98898)
Suddenly Warren Buffett sounds wilder than GATA's Bill Murphy
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1450Warren Buffett's warning about stocks and
derivatives sparks more interest in gold.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Chris Powell
(03/04/2003; 18:42:10 MDT - Msg ID: 98899)
Here's what too much hedging gets you
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1451Newmont's overhedged Yandal mine, acquired
from Normandy, is worth more dead than alive.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
ElGordo
(03/04/2003; 18:44:55 MDT - Msg ID: 98900)
Iran opens nuclear plant for enriched uranium
http://www.portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/03/05/wiran05.xml&sSheet=/news/2003/03/05/ixworld.htmlsnippet:

Iran has always firmly denied developing a secret nuclear weapons programme, but the Isfahan plant would be an essential piece in a chain of installations that go towards producing the enriched uranium essential for atomic armaments. The plant would process uranium from nearby mines, and the resulting gas would then be enriched at a plant in the town of Natanz. Uranium must be enriched for use in nuclear reactors to generate electricity. But highly enriched uranium is a key ingredient for weapons.
_______
N Korea and Iran are working fast now to build an atomic bomb.
a nation of one
(03/04/2003; 18:47:10 MDT - Msg ID: 98901)
kind of now but not exactly

Dinner is served. Opps, no it isn't. Sorry. I thought the
meals were ready. Oh here it is. Nope, sorry. Wait. It's
coming. No it's not. Look, the cook is signalling. Your
dinner is just seconds away. On second thought, that was
the janitor. Oh. How about this. You could sit closer to
the kitchen. At that table. No. They're Turks. They said
no. But the Persians might let you.... No, they want to
come sit with you. Well, dinner is served. Almost. Not
right now. But Here it is, practically. But not now. Soon
however. Tonight. In just a few seconds. What? The butcher
won't cut the meat? Fish then. No fish? How about a salad.
Sorry, the gardener quit. The cashier's gone home? You
can't speak to the manager, you are the manager. In fact,
you own the restaurant. No, I just work here. Your meal
will be ready soon. In fact it's ready now. Here it is. No.
Sorry. Gee. Aren't you glad this isn't a war? If someone
was shooting at us we'd be in trouble.
Roccoco
(03/04/2003; 18:59:37 MDT - Msg ID: 98902)
GOLD in my EYE
My guess *****377.7*****
I'm hunkering down and surrounding myself with a fort of AU. Just got back from a long trip to London and Tunisia. Very interesting as I'm exchanging my U$ for L's and e's; loosing 5% for not having switched out of U$ before leaving. They prefer U$ over Dinars, but the spread was better for L's and e's... I grinned and beared it, WHAT? I was going to kavitch, with my knowing the overabundance of U$'s floating around.

My travel style is to get in with the 'sheeple', and find out what they think... I'm humbled to know that it's the American leaders that aren't liked... everywhere I went, Americans were basically liked, even with the war-ness going on in their minds.

Happy to be home, a little more enlightened.

roccoco
Sundeck
(03/04/2003; 19:04:34 MDT - Msg ID: 98903)
Chris Powell #98898 et al - Buffett and gold
Chris,

Buffett wilder than Murphy? Ho ho ho (very good laugh), not wishing to heap scorn on Murphy, of course, who I believe has done a remarkable job in publicising gold's "manipulations", (who was it who said "No publicity is bad publicity!" or was it "Any publicity is good publicity!"). Buffett, though candid and frank, is the most measured of men. His new assessment of the markets and derivatives in particular will carry an enormous weight in the investment community, IMO.

Buffett and gold? Someone on this forum about six months ago (??? was it Sir Belgian) posted an interesting analysis of why Buffett chose silver over gold. I would like to re-read that analysis, which I thought was good at the time. But how to locate it easily without a search facility???

Cheers

:-)

Sundeck
Sundeck
(03/04/2003; 19:08:57 MDT - Msg ID: 98904)
ANOO #98901 - Great-coats on, great-coats off
Good summary of impending dinner, I'm glad I don't have to do the dishes! (I hope.)

:-)
TownCrier
(03/04/2003; 19:59:27 MDT - Msg ID: 98905)
Wealth for the mind and soul...
http://www.usagold.com/hall/haiku.html...because we all need a little gold now and zen.
:-)

R.
Pizz
(03/04/2003; 20:21:05 MDT - Msg ID: 98906)
Misetich
The cost of a prolonged Iraq war at around 1.6 trillion dollars.

The key word is DOLLARS, not francs, Euro's, yen, but dollars.

Yes, they will be worth less than they are now, but they will be in use.

Pizz
Waverider
(03/04/2003; 20:21:40 MDT - Msg ID: 98907)
Sir TownCrier
Randy, you're BRILLIANT!! What a great idea, and so nicely presented! THANK TOU!!

Mr.Gresham sums it up....

Randy starts something
Amateurs spin out true gold
Hall of Fame beckons.
TownCrier
(03/04/2003; 20:29:50 MDT - Msg ID: 98908)
Waverider
Thanks. I appreciate your enthusiasm, but I am hardly worthy of your high praise.

Cut and paste, cut and paste, format, upload to server...


For your future reference, the permanent link to these haikus can always be found on the Hall index page.

R.
Dollar Bill
(03/04/2003; 20:29:59 MDT - Msg ID: 98909)
Chris Powell
Hi Chris Powell, Since you started a fun --Who is wilder--
contest, I vote for this fellow.

Why do central banks do what they do?
Author: Jim Sinclair
The answer: To depress the rising price of gold and to obtain in exchange depreciating dollars. Also, because it is OPM = "other people's money" and for political reasons. It may well be that but more than likely they will for now hold the depreciating dollars in the form of depreciating treasury instruments for political reasons.

I think half my beef with Jim and Bill is that I used to look to them for insight. But, if Jim and Bill want to play
teacher, it is disapointing to say the least to see the complete lack of comprehension of what and why Central Banks do what they do.
AND, having that misunderstanding as thier cornerstone, All actions and thoughts based on that wrong foundation make thier teaching destructive. And, self importance finds a way to take root. Not a desirable outcome.

You know, the issue of WHY really needs to get a review.
For Jim and Bill to come to the ideas of "it is political reasons" and "enemies" is, to be nice, a plateau. Well, time to keep advanceing in understanding and move on up in clearly seeing. Look, I guess it is ok with me if Misetich
wants to continue to see the iraq issue only as "the Iraqi oil rape", what the heck, he is only posting here.
But, Jim and Bill are trying to play teacher and leader and
....well, maybe I should not try asking ME for adjectives to describe what they are doing !
But, since they are doing that, I am asking for someone from your side to try to get those guys to open up to learning more about WHY the central banks do what they do.
What are they trying to do, WHY they dont do what WE think they should do.
Hey, we tried painting them as small minded, villans, stupid, greedy, worse.
Any chance of a fresh look? Any chance of growth?
Carl H
(03/04/2003; 20:42:36 MDT - Msg ID: 98910)
Re: Zenidea 98813
Zenidea,

I must apologize, I was unable to dechiper your message completely. Would you be good enough to translate?

Yes, what I posted was speculation, but there are certainly enough coincidences to make it fall in the "interesting" category.
mikal
(03/04/2003; 20:52:25 MDT - Msg ID: 98911)
U.S. dollar slumps, then prices in "Snow" premium before resuming "Dollar Bill" stagger
http://www.bloomberg.comDollar Pares Loss After U.S. Treasury Clarifies Snow's Comments
By John Brinsley
Tokyo, March 5 (Bloomberg) -Excerpt:
"The dollar pared a loss after a spokesman said Treasury Secretary John Snow hasn't withdrawn his support for the U.S. currency, seeking to clarify remarks Snow made that sent the dollar to a four-year low against its European counterpart.
The dollar traded at $1.0958 against the euro at 9:42 a.m. in Tokyo, from $1.0925 late yesterday in New York. It fell as low as $1.0986, the weakest since March 19, 1999 after Snow said he was ``not particularly concerned�� about the U.S. currency, which has dropped 20 percent in the past year against the euro. The dollar was also at 117.35 yen, from 117.65 yen, having been as low as 117.13.
``Secretary Snow made the administration�s position on the dollar very clear at his Senate confirmation hearing,�� Treasury spokesman Tony Fratto said, referring to a statement Snow made more than a month ago favoring a strong dollar...."
Gandalf the White
(03/04/2003; 20:55:52 MDT - Msg ID: 98912)
Attention Lady Waverider !
Will you please take those YOYO's away from SPOT and SPIKE !
<;-)
Waverider
(03/04/2003; 20:57:00 MDT - Msg ID: 98913)
US dollar index
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s&w=10&t=l&a=2And Mikal...it continues to slip slide away into the abyss.
shades
(03/04/2003; 21:01:27 MDT - Msg ID: 98914)
deposit insurance
Every year about this time the subject of the Japanese and their deposits being threatened by the decreasing amounts of protection from the goverment is brought up. I understand that this year it will acheive zero protection. Can anyone enlighten and sorry in advance if this has already been discussed
Waverider
(03/04/2003; 21:03:36 MDT - Msg ID: 98915)
Spot'n Spike
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=3Okay Sir Gandalf, no yoyo's...how about a trampoline? ;o)
Buena Fe
(03/04/2003; 21:07:25 MDT - Msg ID: 98916)
Any chance of a fresh look? Any chance of growth?
Dollar Bill,

sorry but your handle screams your book (bias) so loud that you are hard to hear.

have you read Ed Griffins work (among others), "Creature From Jeckyll Island?

i'd like to believe in your good intentions, but my experience through this currency war epoch strongly suggests i tune you out. not that you'll notice or care (nor should you), i just don't need any distractions as i cross the frail bridge which extends over the "chasm of economic chaos", on a chariot of gold.

chao

mikal
(03/04/2003; 21:12:53 MDT - Msg ID: 98917)
@Dollar Bill
Re: Your latest "beefs": "...make their teaching destructive."
"...total lack of comprehension"
"...self-important"
According to your post, "our sides" two "wild" men warrant the above dirt for no other reason than that they plainly explain the actions of bankers.
Your accusations would be nothing more than the blunt weapon of fear, denial and desperation, if they did not also speak for yourself with such obvious irony.
Thank you and bring a feral friend next time!
DummyANI
(03/04/2003; 21:22:54 MDT - Msg ID: 98918)
Japanese Government budget is substantially bankruptcy.
Yesterday, at March, 4, 2003, Japanese Government budget for 2003 fiscal year was passed at Congress, it is nearly $693 billion USD, and the tax income is only $385 billion USD, so that the new issued government bond is nearly $308 billion USD, and this is 44.6 percent of the annual expenditure. I believe that Japanese Government budget is substantially bankruptcy.
The total government deficit is $ 5.8 trillion USD, and this is nearly 137 percent of Japanese GDP. At present, Bank of Japan holds Japanese Government Bond nearly $ 709 billion USD equivalent. BOJ is the top Government Bond Holder.
The yield of Japanese Government Bond is 0.76 percent or lower at present, and this is the lowest level in the world history. If the yield of Japanese Government Bond is reversed, BOJ will be the worst loser of 2003 or 2004 in the world. But at the current Forex market, Japanese Yen is evaluated very higher, and BOJ ironically intervenes in order to sell a Yen and buy a dollar.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen.
D-Ani.
Black Blade
(03/04/2003; 21:30:30 MDT - Msg ID: 98919)
Market Wrap Up � Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Profit From The Paper Chase With a Gold or Silver Paperweight

So if you believe in gold and silver fundamentals and want to invest in physical, pay cash and take delivery. This means if you're buying in the futures market that you pay cash and take delivery. This takes supply off the market and makes it harder for the Goliaths to leverage their paper positions when delivery is demanded. Their enormous short positions are predicated on the fact that buyers settle in paper or don't demand delivery. Like fractional reserve banking, their strategy falls apart when there is a run on the banks. The only way the derivative pyramid can work is if you play their paper game. It doesn't work when contracts are settled by physical delivery. So if you are buying physical, take possession.

You don't have to be a major player to buy gold and silver bullion. You can start out small at your local coin shop (or here at Centennial Precious Metals � USAGOLD � Black Blade). You can buy gold coins, junk bags of silver, silver rounds or ten ounce bars of silver. It is probably easier to buy gold coins because of the current cost of gold. You can do so monthly and average your cost or quarterly whenever funds are available. The important point is even small stones will work to slay the giant. Besides, owning gold and silver coins or bars give you the added pleasure of admiring their beauty.


Black Blade: An "interesting" twist on the precious metals market using a religious analogy. As someone here once asked about being able to buy gold or silver but having limited funds. Dollar cost averaging is one way to slowly build a position over time. I suppose that the "Small Order Desk" here is still open. Randy, MK, Castle Guards?

21mabry
(03/04/2003; 21:31:07 MDT - Msg ID: 98920)
mugshots
How about these photos they take of these ''terrorist''these guys look like ten miles of michigan highway.Thats pretty bad for those of you who have never had the pleasure of driving in michigan.
Gene
(03/04/2003; 21:33:39 MDT - Msg ID: 98921)
Dollar Bill
Central banks do what they do because they are in collusion and are taking their orders from someone at the Fed. Otherwise gold would be at a much much higher price.My goodness, man, wake up!
Black Blade
(03/04/2003; 21:33:44 MDT - Msg ID: 98922)
Small Order Desk
http://www.usagold.com/announcement/SmallOrderDesk.html
Link to small order desk above for those who wish to slowly dollar cost average into a pile of portfolio insurance.

- Black Blade
Simply Me
(03/04/2003; 21:44:37 MDT - Msg ID: 98923)
What are nuclear power plants for?
RE: ElGordo (3/4/03; 18:44:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98900)
Iran opens nuclear plant for enriched uranium
snippet:

Iran has always firmly denied developing a secret nuclear weapons programme, but the Isfahan plant would be an essential piece in a chain of installations that go towards producing the enriched uranium essential for atomic armaments.

Me: Will someone exlain to me what the heck Iraq and Iran need nuclear power plants for, when they're practically floating in oil?

As the kids say, "Duh!~"
Simply
Black Blade
(03/04/2003; 21:46:35 MDT - Msg ID: 98924)
Buffett warns on investment 'time bomb'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2817995.stm
Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction

Snippit:

The rapidly growing trade in derivatives poses a "mega-catastrophic risk" for the economy and most shares are still "too expensive", legendary investor Warren Buffett has warned. The world's second-richest man made the comments in his famous and plain-spoken "annual letter to shareholders", excerpts of which have been published by Fortune magazine. The derivatives market has exploded in recent years, with investment banks selling billions of dollars worth of these investments to clients as a way to off-load or manage market risk. But Mr Buffett argues that such highly complex financial instruments are time bombs and "financial weapons of mass destruction" that could harm not only their buyers and sellers, but the whole economic system.

Black Blade: It is "interesting" isn't it? Investment banks are essentially saying "the risks are too great for us to handle, so be a pal and buy our risk". The ultimate "greater fool" theory. Hmmm�

Not long ago Warren Buffett and his partner Charlie Munger referred to derivatives as "toxic waste" and "sewage" adding that it was an insult to sewage.

sector
(03/04/2003; 22:00:02 MDT - Msg ID: 98925)
Motives and the $Bill Person
The goals of central banks as components of government......are the same with respect to unbacked paper currency.

Their mission is to convince populations that paper has value greater than its true value. Sinclair is an expert in gold market issues and Bill Murphy has provided a forum to expose the manipulation of gold markets by central banks and their acolytes. Are they sinners?

In order to provide substance to paper currency there are two and only two things a government can do (1) It can produce goods and sell them at a profit or if unable to produce, it can (2) sell its gold to hide the recognizable weaknesses of that currency.

The core of the situation is the inherent competition between paper currency and gold.

The Western central banks have been forced to sell their gold in large tonnages because their respective countries have deteriorating real productivity combined with an artificially rising standard of living.

The banks and hence, governments have been burning their furniture to stay warm. Hedonically speaking they have been making $1,000 computers and counting them as $15,000 worth of GDP because they have "faster processors". There are reams of Bureau of Economic Statistical "Price deflators" all combining to project the lie of American Productivity. Pretty much the same tunes in EuroLand.

If bringing these facts to light as Jim Sinclair and Bill Murphy are doing is wrong to you and makes you unhappy then perhaps the needed golden lessons are on your part.


Black Blade
(03/04/2003; 22:01:55 MDT - Msg ID: 98926)
U.S. Economy: Iraq War May Not Spur Rebound, CEOs Say
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmTb4xRpVS5TLiBF
Snippit:

Washington, March 4 (Bloomberg) -- To hear Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Treasury Secretary John Snow tell it, the U.S. recovery is being held back by war jitters and the economy may thrive once the standoff with Iraq is resolved. The unwillingness of companies to invest or hire and the history of the 1990-91 Gulf War suggest they may be wrong. Factory use hasn't rebounded from the almost two-decade low reached in December 2001 and probably won't even after the conflict ends, some executives and economists say. A sounding of 1,200 members of the National Federation of Independent Business found that only 8 percent cited ``the political environment'' as a reason not to expand. Getting the war over quickly may ease anxiety, ``but I don't think it's going to make that big a difference'' for the economy, said Harry Kraemer, chairman and chief executive officer of Baxter International, the world's biggest blood-treatment maker. ``There is overcapacity if you look across most of the basic industries,'' Kraemer said, and job-creation has lagged.

Black Blade: As I pointed out before the problems with the economy are not simply going to magically disappear with a resolution to the Iraq situation. If anything the Iraq war II could even make things worse as the cost will add significantly to the rising US deficit and public debt picture. The difference this time is that we are "already" in a deepening global recession with no light at the end of tunnel.

ski
(03/04/2003; 22:07:37 MDT - Msg ID: 98927)
Brain Teaser Question .....

I bumped into an interesting piece of data in "The Dines Letter 2003 Annual Forecast Issue". I thought it might be worthwhile to make the answer into a question.

Question: What was the best performing Index/commodity in the US markets in 2002??

(I will post the official answer in an hour or so.)
Black Blade
(03/04/2003; 22:13:43 MDT - Msg ID: 98928)
Fuel costs pinch transport firms
http://www.accessatlanta.com/ajc/epaper/editions/today/business_e346f3487379d16e002d.html
Snippit:

Higher fuel prices are creating two classes of transportation companies: Those that can pass along some of the increased cost and those that can't. Big companies like United Parcel Service and Roadway already are sharing the pain with customers. UPS on Monday raised its fuel surcharge to 1.5 percent from 1.25 percent. Freight hauler Roadway has a surcharge that runs 6.5 percent or 8.5 percent, depending on whether a customer can fill part or all of a truck.

Black Blade: Higher energy costs are just starting to work through the "food chain" and the costs will eventually be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services. Last month's high PPI (15%+ annualized) will soon show up in the CPI data. The slow economic growth and higher inflation is looking more and more like the stagflationary 1970's.

elevator guy
(03/04/2003; 22:21:11 MDT - Msg ID: 98929)
Dollar Bill
Look what Alan Greenspan knew and understood about fiat currency, way back in 1966. He knew than that a variable currency represented theft, as did Thomas Jefferson.

"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966.

Although Alan works for "them" now, you can see that he is not oblivious to the truth.

How 'bout you?

mikal
(03/04/2003; 22:27:58 MDT - Msg ID: 98930)
Fed medicine for worsening economy lowers rates AND dollar returns
http://www.abcnews.comFed's Parry: More Room To Ease Again
By Victoria Thieberger March 4, 2003
PALO ALTO, Calif (Reuters) -Excerpts:
"A Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday low inflation gives the central bank leeway to ease monetary policy again if necessary, even if the economy faces risks from a robust recovery down the road.
"If it were called for we still have room to give a boost to the economy, even in the face of some upside risks, because core inflation is low and trending downward," said Robert Parry, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, in a speech to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in Palo Alto, California.....
Greenspan has also said that if the economy remains weak once the war uncertainty lifts, the central bank would not hesitate to easy monetary policy once again.
Already the Fed's benchmark funds rate stands at 1.25 percent, its lowest level in more than four decades, as it has battled to restore a solid recovery from recession. The Fed last cut rates by half a percentage point in November....."
Toolie
(03/04/2003; 22:35:10 MDT - Msg ID: 98931)
Lawrence Welk music needed
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20030304-061047-7716rSnip;



Putting the three elements together, Greenspan said the Fed calculates that "the amount of previously built-up equity extracted from owner-occupied homes last year, net of fees and taxes, totaled $700 billion ... or more than 10 percent of estimated equity at the beginning of the year."

This sum is enormous, as large as Bush's 10-year stimulus plan -- and all of it entering the economy in one year.

All this should raise a question in our mind as to what will happen to domestic demand in the United States when house prices cease to go up and up. Greenspan gives the danger a brief mention, in a typically Greenspanesque, non-ringing phrase. A slowdown in the housing boom will have the effect of "possibly notably lessening support to household purchases of goods and services."

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Second Snip;

The excess capacity built up when the U.S. stock market was booming and the drag from it now that the market has burst explain why the US economy is frail today. The house price boom has helped to offset that frailty. But because it, too, is something false, another episode of wealth generated by inflation, its medium-term impact will be negative.

There is a symmetry to booms and busts. As house prices have spiraled up Americans have sold assets for much more than they paid for them. As house prices come down, Americans will find the opposite.

The house price boom is troubling. As house prices fall in nominal or real terms for some years, another strongly negative influence will weigh on the U.S. economy. An excess of cheap money medicine from Greenspan in the past two years makes the economy more vulnerable to a prolonged slump. America's imbalances are getting worse, not better.

And as more Americans own homes than stocks, the house price boom could do more harm than the boom and bust of the stock market.

Greenspan has let a second bout of asset price inflation build on his watch. Don't expect him to be the first to recognize it.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$



Toolie; I am reminded of a story a friend tells. A relative of his, back during a '30's bank run, owned a home that had $80 remaining on the mortgage. When the bank called in the loan, he thought no problem. He had $100 on deposit in the same bank. He told the bank just take the money out of his savings account. The problem was all deposits were de-valued by 75%. His $100 was now worth $25. He lost the house!

As the "BONE PILE" grows alot of this housing debt will default. Many middle class folks are bound to become homeless and penniless. What a shame!
Ag Mountain
(03/04/2003; 22:48:33 MDT - Msg ID: 98932)
Dollar Bill, about credit
So there's these couple guys in the middle of the crowded theater and they're saying things like "fire" and putting up smoke. So these guys haven't thought enough of the exits, like are there any or or where they are.

I see your beef, but I think the talking and smokepuff is too small for any trouble to come of it because the crowd doesn't notice them at all. Not that it makes reckless behavior any more excusable though.

Let them have their fun. The way I see it more good could come of it than bad, even if these guys don't know anything about evacuating a room.

When they make their fuss all the time a good building superintendent who does know about evacuation might speed up his exit renovations because he's vigilant about this kind of mischief even if the crowd looks like they'll never pay attention to those rascals.

Then one day when an evacuation is needed it will go smoothly. Two guys might congratulate each other saying they saved everyone, even if they finally started a fire in order to get the people to leave. Ha! I don't care about all that as long as the superintendent did his thankless job and has the doors working. Live to tell about it, that's my motto.

I guess that's a long way of saying how we can be made better off by someone pointing out a system problem or vulnerability even if its vulnerability is by their own meddling hands. (They say it's hard to make anything foolproof because fools are so ingenious!) The good service is done by calling attention to the vulnerability to avoid a catastrophe even if they don't know exactly what it is or how to fix it. It's great when a child passenger can point out road hazard. Who cares if he's too young to drive and not behind the wheel? Everyone should try to contribute something that helps because nobody can do it all, all the time.
Mr Gresham
(03/04/2003; 23:19:25 MDT - Msg ID: 98933)
Treasure is where you find it, or, maybe I should change my handle
http://bogart-tribute.net/sounds.shtmlto Fred C. Dobbs?

The power of gold to drive men mad, even, or especially, after they've found it? Having conquered the lifeless soil, they have nowhere left to turn, but on each other?

Well, I always remember Bogey, growing more and more paranoid of his partners. "Oh, so that's it!"

So I found you these clips. All the short Bogeyisms, and Treasure of the Sierra Madre is all the way at the bottom of the page.

Talk about treasure! Never knew this one was the source of the "we don't need no steenking badges" line. LOL!

Also contains "Everything's clear now", "What a dirty, filthy mind you've got", and "Let's call it quits."

Go easy on each other, we're gonna be around a long long time. Or not. Gold doesn't care. It's like those stars twinkling cold up there...so beautiful, so impartial.
ski
(03/04/2003; 23:54:38 MDT - Msg ID: 98934)
Brain Teaser Answer ......

Best index/commodity return in 2002 per Jim Dines?

124% Dines silver stock average
40% Dines gold stock average
24% Gold bullion
22% Planinum bullion
5% Silver bullion
-3% American stock exchange
-12% Dow transports
-17% Dow industrials
-23% Mutual funds (domestic equity)
-23% S&P 500
-26% NASDAQ
-27% Dow utilities
-43% IW internet index
-47% Palladium bullion


While I'm at it ... best returns in 2001

64% Dines silver stock average
11% Dines gold stock average
1.4% Gold bullion
-0.13% Silver bullion
-5.6% American stock exchange

.............................

I do not know what stocks Dines includes in his silver and gold stock indexes. In the case of silver, I suspect the group collectively known as the silver seven. In the case of gold, I suspect a large basket of gold miners including hedgeres and South African shares.

I do not take the Dines Letter but I have been a long time advocate here of .... leaning heavily on the investment recommendations of the old proven market professionals rather than formulating your own investment strategy. I listen very closely to: The Aden Sisters, Jim Dines, Richard Russell, Bob Chapman, Jim Puplava, Doug Casey and a few others. Last year at the San Francisco Gold Show, one of the pro's said, "The amateurs know the rules (of investing) but the pro's know the exceptions."

Everyone here, keep up the good work!
ElGordo
(03/05/2003; 00:23:46 MDT - Msg ID: 98935)
Greenspan warns home prices may "recede"
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=2326078snippet:

"All of a sudden -- after all he has said about the house price topic -- to say home prices could recede, I think struck people, at least those who follow this sort of thing, as stunning," said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders.

"Greenspan's comments showed there is a genuine nervousness about housing," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Corp. "And the rise in the activity and price of housing has resembled the technology and telecoms bubble."
__________
Greenspan changes his tune on housing. Amazing
ElGordo
(03/05/2003; 00:39:40 MDT - Msg ID: 98936)
Tax Cuts in trouble, Budget Deficit exploding
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/05/politics/05ECON.html?ex=1047445200&en=09eba9dcb9b9dab3&ei=5062∂ner=GOOGLEASHINGTON, March 4 � The federal deficit is growing much more quickly than expected, even before Congress takes up President Bush's tax-cutting proposals and without factoring in the costs of a war in Iraq, Congressional analysts have concluded.

Analysts for the Republican-controlled House Budget Committee have raised their estimates of this year's budget shortfall by about $30 billion, some 15 percent beyond the forecast that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office issued only five weeks ago.
__________
Seek a safe haven in a perfect storm.
Got Gold?
TownCrier
(03/05/2003; 00:59:57 MDT - Msg ID: 98937)
You can't count on the Swiss franc as a haven, so look to gold
http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1046847974nL05486859&tit=Swiss%20franc%20gains%20on%20dollar,%20SNB%20reiterates%20concern&type=indicator&ling=ENHEADLINE: Swiss franc gains on dollar, SNB reiterates concern

ZURICH, March 5 (Reuters) - The Swiss franc's rise against the dollar continued in early Wednesday business as repeated jawboning by the Swiss central bank failed to keep investors from seeking the franc's perceived safety amid rising fears of a war in Iraq.

...A spokesman said the central bank was monitoring the Swiss franc's level closely but declined to discuss any potential consequences for monetary policy the franc's rise may have.

..."It seems plausible that the SNB intervenes on markets only verbally until the Iraq crisis is settled," UBS Warburg wrote in a note. "Still, the SNB seems to have established enough credibility with investors that they would use more drastic measures to weaken the franc if needed."

-----(see full text at url)------

"...measures to weaken the [insert currency here] if needed." Such is the fate of a national currency when the choice is perceived as a tradeoff between manipulating the currency for full employment versus strong savings.

Paper seems always fated to dwindle to serve the quest for social agendas.

On the other hand, in theory and practice, you should be able to hold gold with confidence as your form of strong savings. You'll never see mother nature intervene with policy measures to weaken its value in any occasion where the ecosystem happens to be slumping...

R.
Black Blade
(03/05/2003; 01:24:25 MDT - Msg ID: 98938)
Global Market Meltdown
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Globally equities markets are awash in red. A general lack of confidence in global equities markets has indices falling tonight. Meanwhile gold steadily grinds higher.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(03/05/2003; 01:30:04 MDT - Msg ID: 98939)
Market Indicators
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures slip lower, the USD is falling off a cliff, oil is rising back above $37.bbl, NatGas drifts lower on expectations that temperatures will moderate in spring (go figure), and Gold remains strong.

- Black Blade
ElGordo
(03/05/2003; 01:47:47 MDT - Msg ID: 98940)
Fed Official : More room to cut!
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=2326887PALO ALTO, Calif (Reuters) - A Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday the central bank has leeway to cut interest rates again if necessary if the economy falters, even though there is a possibility of stronger growth.

"If it were called for we still have room to give a boost to the economy, even in the face of some upside risks, because core inflation is low and trending downward," said Robert Parry, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, in a speech to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in Palo Alto, California.

Parry's comments underscored the central bank's willingness to get growth back up to full speed as the economy now faces a barrage of new difficulties tied to a possible war with Iraq, including uncertainty about the duration of a conflict and how long energy prices will stay high.

The Federal Reserve interest rate committee meets again on March 18, and most economists expect it will wait until some of the uncertainty about possible war and its effect on the economy clears before making any change in interest rates.

The Fed has already slashed rates 12 times over the past two years, taking the federal funds rate to a four-decade low of 1.25 percent.
__________
Canada just raised interest rates because inflation was
rising to about 5%. Strange, no inflation in the US.

LeSin
(03/05/2003; 03:46:46 MDT - Msg ID: 98941)
"POLITICAL WILL" & The GOLD/OIL & EURO v US$ - thingie
http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/print.asp?ArticleID=79390"Political Will" - If I correctly recall a certain old friend of this fine forum namely "FOA/TG" & "ANOTHER" spoke extensively and advised that the tech analysis and historical trading data would be useless when "Political Will" and Its' momentum changed, Yes/NO?

I think much of this storey has been discussed here, however is it not so very interesting to see this "stuff" slowly flowing into the main stream media.

This Gold/Oil & EURO v US$ & Iraq thingie is wild and about to get crazy.

Cheers "S"

snip:

"But that isn't the whole story. Not only does the Bush administration want Iraq's oil, even more importantly it also wants to ensure that the fiat dollar remains the only currency used for its purchase. Iraq has already swapped dollars for euros, Iran is currently considering a change over and so is Russia. If the other Opec countries were to follow, the dollar would collapse dragging the already fragile U.S. economy to new depths."

"Currently all oil-consuming nations are forced to maintain large reserves of dollars with which to purchase petroleum, keeping the dollar at an elevated rate of exchange."

"With anti-American sentiment sweeping the planet, the Euro poses a very real threat to the financial dominance of the U.S. In recent times the dollar has lost 20 per cent of its value against the euro, a wake-up call to the US, which needs to nip this new trend in the bud."

"The Arab world is unsure how to proceed over the Iraq issue, no doubt wary of issuing a direct challenge to the Superpower. A watered down statement issued after the Arab League Summit held in Sharm Al Sheikh last Saturday stressed the Arabs' "total rejection of any attack on Iraq" and urged that Arabs "not participate in any military action aimed at Iraq or any Arab country's safety and territorial integrity."

"It did not warn what Arab League members would do in the case that the warmongers refused to heed their call."

"Political Will"

"President Bashar Al Assad of Syria, showing himself as never before to be his hard line father's son, believes that if the Arab world could unite and gathered enough political will, it could avert conflict. He told the summit: "Somebody mentioned that we cannot stand up to the United States (referring to the recent fatalistic statements of President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt). If this is the case, then why are we here?"

Snip

Knallgold
(03/05/2003; 04:06:29 MDT - Msg ID: 98942)
"Still, the SNB seems to have established enough credibility with investors that they would use more drastic measures to weaken the franc if needed."
What an oxymoron!

misetich
(03/05/2003; 06:46:32 MDT - Msg ID: 98943)
Recession Forces 2.3 Million Households to Delay Retirement, Quicken Survey Reveals
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030305/55104_1.htmlSnip:

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 5, 2003--Current economic conditions will force 2.3 million households to delay retirement, according to the fourth annual Quicken� Fiscal Literacy Survey by Intuit Inc. (Nasdaq:INTU - News), a leading provider of business and financial management solutions for small businesses, consumers and accounting professionals. The survey polled Americans with annual incomes of at least $75,000 who actively manage their investments.
............
Most Investors Are "Staying The Course"

While nine out of ten respondents said their retirement portfolios have decreased in value, 34 percent say they plan to increase the money they have invested in retirement funds such as 401(k)s and IRAs. "Many investors are realizing that retirement accounts carry both a short-term and a long-term benefit," said Baie Netzer, Quicken investments editor.
.........
68% report they are not pulling out of stocks or bonds, but are staying the course. Despite this long-term commitment to equities, 73% of respondents feel it will take at least three years for their portfolios to reach the levels they saw at the peak of the bull market.
.......
Elderly Hit Hardest: 21 percent of those delaying retirement are between the ages of 55 and 64, with 18 percent being 65 or older. By comparison, only eight percent of those ages 35-44 and 15 percent of those 45-54 years of age expect to have to delay retirement.
Women Remain Cautious: Women (58%) are less likely than men (46%) to make changes to their investing and retirement strategies.
*********
Misetich
Interesting survey - "Most investors are staying on the course" - The course in the last 3 years is toward oblivion

These adamant bulls are in for a rude awakening - they still don't get it - the big bad stock market bear is only finished his/her first course - and after a little pause - the big bad bear is on the roll again -

Presumably these investors have taken steps such as refinancing to stay afloat waiting for the magic promised land of recovery

These irresponsible Gurus such as the US Treasury and Federal Reserve officials are leading investors toward the slaughter house with their "positive spin" - as the sitting toads doesn't realize the water temperature has risen and they're being cooked to death

The Perfect Financial Storm is here - and desperate attempts such as the planned Iraqui Oil Rape is not going to work as expected - The Hail Mary Pass being attempted is going nowhere - the costs of trying to police billions of muslims is going to fail

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?






Clink!
(03/05/2003; 07:08:03 MDT - Msg ID: 98944)
Portuguese gold
I've been think about this a fair bit recently (not nearly as much as some other people, though, judging by the contest entries !! Some of those are so off the wall that they probably have some truth in them.) and was wondering just how big a stash 30 tonnes of gold would look like. I was expecting something impressive, but it turns out to be a cube only 116cm (45in) on the side. Wow ! That's dense !

PS. Believer, if you are going to make a shelter, I hope you are physically compact !!
mikal
(03/05/2003; 07:44:20 MDT - Msg ID: 98945)
The latest hard cash will be a sight for sore eyes- for those in the dark. In a pinch, it's not worth the paper it's printed on.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2003-03-04-newmoney_x.htmPosted 3/4/2003 11:43 PM
It's not that easy being green, so $20 bill is getting a dye job
By Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON �Excerpt: "In three weeks, the government will unveil a $20 bill that will feature updated images of Andrew Jackson and the White House and, in the biggest change, include color other than green for the first time in modern history.
There will be one predominant, yet subtle, color that will appear in the background and at least one other color. Other features of the $20 will also change, but many details are secret, including the actual colors to be used, until the official unveiling on March 27. The bill will enter circulation in the fall.
"The colors are subtle, but they're not invisible," Bureau of Engraving and Printing director Tom Ferguson said Tuesday. "It will certainly be different. But "it is traditional, it is still American."
The $20 was last updated in 1996, 70 years after the previous redesign, as part of an effort to outwit counterfeiters. Although the best counterfeits are still made on traditional presses overseas, the popularity of laser printers and scanners has made it easier for counterfeiters to try to copy bills.
The $20 is the most commonly counterfeited bill in the USA, and close to 40% of the money seized in this country in the last fiscal year was made with laser printers, up from less than 1% in 1995.
The plan is to update currency every seven to 10 years. After the new $20 is introduced, the $50 and the $100 will come next.
Some features from the $20 that entered circulation in 1998 will be kept, but it's unclear if they will be in the same location or style:
Color-shifting ink. The 1996 update included ink on the number in the lower right-hand corner that appears black if tilted one way and green if tilted another. The Secret Service says this has been the one feature counterfeiters have been unable to reproduce....."
da2g
(03/05/2003; 07:52:51 MDT - Msg ID: 98946)
TC: Golden Haiku
Quite a formidable collection of Haiku! I enjoyed reading them again. Thanks for the effort.
mikal
(03/05/2003; 07:59:12 MDT - Msg ID: 98947)
"Wild" war costs get wilder
http://www.etherzone/2003/pyne030503.shtmlA RECIPE FOR DISASTER
BUSH ADMINISTRATION'S POST-WAR PLAN
By: David T. Pyne
This week, the Bush Administration unveiled plans to station a force of 200,000 troops in Iraq for an indefinite period of time. Only the day before, General Eric Shinseki, the Chief of Staff of the Army declared that, "something on the order of several hundred thousand soldiers are probably a figure that would be required," to garrison Iraq after the war was ended. Both Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz responded by attacking General Shinseki and stating that his estimates "were wildly off the mark."
Retired Army Colonel David Hackworth has stated that virtually all the Joint Chiefs and top Pentagon brass oppose the Administration's plan to invade Iraq, an allegation which has been supported by various insider news reports over the past several months. Accordingly, Shinseki may have deliberately high-balled the number of troops that it would take to occupy Iraq to provide support to opponents of the war and allude to his continuing behind the scenes opposition to the Administration's plans for a new US invasion of Iraq. Previous estimates were that a force of "only" 75,000 troops would suffice. The latest rather conservative statement of the cost of war with Iraq and the immediate occupation provided by the US Department of Defense are that it would total $95 billion. With this latest revelation that 200,000 troops would be used to garrison Iraq indefinitely, it seems that this estimate would have to be revised substantially upward. Unofficial estimates including the cost of planned US funded reconstruction of Iraq which go as high as a trillion dollars may be more accurate.
The rationale for a permanent commitment of US forces to occupy Iraq, let alone an occupying army of 200,000 troops is visibly lacking and has yet to be explained by the administration. It seems that President Bush is intent on remaking the Middle East in America's image after all in a bid to make a name for himself in the history books. A permanent commitment of US troops on this scale has not been contemplated since the Cold War occupation of post-war Germany. For forty-five years, this massive commitment of US military forces in Europe consumed fully half of the US defense budget. Could an occupation of Iraq consuming as much as one-third of the US defense budget be justified? Could it be that the liberals are right that the Administration wants to secure permanent, imperial access to the oilfields of the second largest oil producing country in the world since the Democrats in the Senate refuse to allow him to develop our own ample reserves of oil here at home?
Some have alluded that this planned massive troop deployment might be aimed at affecting regime change in Iran, despite recent reports that it might already possess intermediate range nuclear missiles. However, the President declared 9-11 Islamist terrorist supporting Iran off limits to US military attack early last year and has since repeated that the US has no intent to attack Iran despite clear links to its support for Al Qaeda and equally despicable terrorists. This is after all not about fighting the soon to be defunct and in all likelihood soon to be lost war against terrorism. It is about fighting a war to "get Saddam." A US invasion of Iraq and ensuing indefinite occupation of its territory will serve to enflame the Middle East, incite further acts of terrorism against the US and make the current level of anti-Americanism there look tame in comparison. In short, a permanent occupation of Iraq is a recipe not for peace as recently proclaimed by the President but rather a recipe for perpetual war.
In his latest speech on his post-war plan for reshaping the Middle East delivered on February 26th at the American Enterprise Institute, a longtime neoconservative bastion, he stated that "the new government of Israel�will be expected to support the creation of a viable Palestinian state -- and to work as quickly as possible toward a final status agreement." Accordingly, even as the President is unflinching in his determination to invade and occupy Iraq whose links to terrorists are essentially limited to providing death benefits to Palestinian suicide bombers, he appears to be calling for the creation of what could potentially be a new terrorist-supporting state which could pose a dire threat to our greatest ally in the region--Israel. The creation of a Palestinian state and likely safe haven to terrorists and suicide bombers is in manifest opposition to Israel interests as has been stated by former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Once again, it seems that the President's plan to reshape the Middle East will do far more to fuel the fire of terrorism than it will do to counteract it.
In his speech, Bush invoked visions of World War II and the reconstruction that followed. The President, it seems, is attempting to refight World War II. For him Saddam is Hitler, Iraq is Nazi Germany and the alleged threat to the US posed by Iraq must be met with immediate and overwhelming force to liberate Iraq from that unique brand of secular tyranny known as Saddamism Iraq must be garrisoned indefinitely with nearly half of the United States Army even though the Army is already badly overstretched by its current commitments and troop deployments. Such an occupation would leave the US powerless to fight and win even one major war and our enemies would be left free to attack, overwhelm and occupy our allies on the Korean peninsula and elsewhere. Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld and his overly anxious chief of US conventional military disarmament, Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Steven Cambone are reportedly preparing to move forward with plans to cut the Army's already much downsized force structure by as much as 40% later this year. Such a draconian force cut combined with a massive US troop commitment in soon-to-be occupied Iraq could potentially leave the new American Empire without sufficient troops to even defend the US homeland from illegal border incursions, let alone fight new wars abroad. So much for homeland defense.
Secretary of State Colin Powell cited Bin Laden's recent tirade calling for all Muslims to rise up and attack the United States in defense of Iraq as further evidence of Al Qaeda's alleged ties to Iraq. In the same speech, bin Laden also attacked Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi government as "socialists" and "infidels". Interestingly, in a second audiotape aired by Al Jeezera, Bin Laden used the same term, "infidels" to describe Americans whom he exorted all Muslims to fight and kill. Accordingly, far from demonstrating a link between Saddam Hussein and Bin Laden, the tape seems to indicate that Bin Laden considers Saddam an enemy, which he equates with the would-be American invaders of Iraq. The purpose of the tape seems to demonstrate solidarity with the Iraqi people both against invading US forces and against secularist dictator Saddam Hussein.
Bin Laden's verbal denunciation of Saddam Hussein two weeks ago seems to indicate that he wants to see Saddam replaced, presumably by an Islamist leader like himself. He may get his wish since the planned smashing of Iraq and its military will likely result in a fracturing of that country into its three component parts�Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites�that will leave it and much of the Middle East wide open to Iranian, Shiite and thus Islamist control and influence. British intelligence and many senior US intelligence officials have pointed out that Saddam and Islamists in Al Qaeda and other Iranian-supported terrorist organizations are natural enemies and largely debunked alleged links between Saddam and Al Qaeda before President Bush's and British Prime Minister Tony Blair's politicization of their respective intelligence communities swung into full force.
Currently, Osama Bin Laden is relegated to hiding and has refrained from repeating the spectacular attacks of 9-11. He needs a provocation on the part of the US to fuel his terrorist organization building efforts. A US invasion of Iraq and subsequent indefinite large-scale US military occupation of Iraq would likely be Bin Laden's dream come true as terrorists recruits would flock to his anti-American standard and likely double or even triple Al Qaeda's numbers and funding....."
Gandalf the White
(03/05/2003; 08:23:41 MDT - Msg ID: 98948)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlPlease see the latest UP-DATE at the LINK above !

QUEST -- The APRIL 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3J) SETTLEMENT Price on Thursday March 13, 2003: THE ENTRY DEADLINE is HIGH NOON Denver time on Tuesday 3/11/03 !!!!!!

ADDITIONAL QUEST -- AN ESSAY CONTEST IN ANSWERING (in more than 30 words) ....

"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . . . . . . . . . . . . ."

Prizes are to be awarded for each of the two QUESTS of this CONTEST !! (BUT, one need not enter the Essay Contest portion, if they do not want to "confess", and only state a "why" statement for their Prognostication.)

===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a "Discussion Statement" !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) APRIL 2003 Gold Contract (GC3J) on the date of Thursday, the 13th of March, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Tuesday, March 11th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY to accompany the Price prognostication,--- EITHER
1) A Statement of why you projected that price --- OR
2) enter the ESSAY Contest with an Answer completion of the confession ---

"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . . . . . . . . . . . . ."

===
THE PRIZES !!

The POG CONTEST rules are set forth below and the WINNING PRIZE will be a GOLDEN "Napoleon the First" (Bonaparte himself) French 20 Franc piece, with 0.1867 ounces of Gold, (and carried at many battles by --guess who), worth about $100. The two "Runners-up's" will each get an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(Rich, Did you see that?)

The "best, most clever, and most devastating" short ESSAY statement attached to the POG Prognostication, wins a The Netherlands GOLDEN "King" (King Willem) 10 Guilder gold coin containing 0.1947 ounces of GOLD, while the "Runner- up" gets an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(OK Rich, Did you see that?)
===
LET the CONTEST continue !
<;-)
Tate
(03/05/2003; 08:25:52 MDT - Msg ID: 98949)
DJ to fall much further
Misetich
"68% report they are not pulling out of stocks or bonds, but are staying the course. Despite this long-term commitment to equities, 73% of respondents feel it will take at least three years for their portfolios to reach the levels they saw at the peak of the bull market."
68% not pulling out of stocks or bonds. This is why DJ must fall much further. Too many folks are still optimistic. CNN propaganda works well. More investors to be cleaned. Gold is well hidden from radar screen.
The head of New York FED about 1 years ago said categorical NO when asked by reporter if Gold Standard would be a possibility. Does anybody know if this hypocrite still occupies same seat???

P.S. Bribing Turkey did not work.
Gandalf the White
(03/05/2003; 08:31:57 MDT - Msg ID: 98950)
ATTENTION all you LURKERS and Newbies !! --- COME ON IN !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlJoin the FUN and become wealthy at the same time !! <;-)
===
Just enter either or BOTH Portions of the new CONTEST, and WIN "FREE" Gold and/or Silver !!! To enter, you must have a Free "POSTING PASSWORD". BUT, IF you do not now have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD) --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK above ! He makes it easy and painless too. There WILL be FREE GOLD and Silver given away for the BEST ESSAY and most accurate Price Of Gold (POG) Prognostications.
<;-)
Zhisheng
(03/05/2003; 08:37:00 MDT - Msg ID: 98951)
Measured Response
As the dollar has weakened the past couple days, so has gold strengthened, in roughly proportional measure.

The players seem cautious. Perhaps it is the uncertainty of war which makes men pause�..or perhaps it is mutual agreement among the big players to an orderly market.
Gandalf the White
(03/05/2003; 08:47:03 MDT - Msg ID: 98952)
Can you read CHARTS ? <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!b50!g10!e5!a!h.02,.20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lo14!Lv25!Lw25!Lr14]IF I were a "CHARTIST", I would be putting on my "ROSY" spectacles.
<;-)
DummyANI
(03/05/2003; 09:04:09 MDT - Msg ID: 98953)
The decline shape of money: Weimar Mark vs Japanese Yen
http://quote.yahoo.co.jp/q?s=8301.q&d=aySir Mr Gresham (12/13/02; 08:24:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 91489) presented the following article.
The Quintessential Inflation - The Great Weimar Inflation - Germany the Early Twenties

Julian D. W. Phillips
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/phillips121302pv.html

I am very interesting in this article, and comparing Weimar Mark vs Japanese Yen, and generating the next list.
Date Marks to the pound normalized coeff Date price of BOJ share normalized coeff.
1920 Dec. 258 100(percent) 1988.Dec.08 755,000 100(percent)
1921 Jan. 243 106.17
1921 Feb. 237 108.86
1921 March 244 105.74
1921 April 249 103.61
1921 May 247 104.45
1921 June 261 98.85
1921 July 278 92.81
1921 Aug 307 84.04
1921 Sep. 390 66.15
1921 Oct. 582 44.33
1921 Nov. 1,041 24.78
1921 Dec. 794 32.49
1922 Jan. 811 31.81
1922 Feb. 907 28.45
1922 March 1,246 20.71
1922 April 1,285 20.08
1922 May 1,294 19.94
1922 June 1,410 18.30
1922 July 2,200 11.73
1922 Aug. 5,074 05.08 2003.Feb. 45,500 6.026
1922 Sep. 6,502 03.97
1922 Oct. 14,146 01.824
1922 Nov. 32.146 00.8026
1922 Dec. 34,858 00.7401
1923 Jan. 83,190 00.3101
1923 Feb. 130,750 00.1973
1923 March 99,526 00.2592

According to the decline shape of Weimar Mark, current Japanese Yen is in the Disaster stage between 1922 July and 1922 August. The collapse of Japanese Government Bond will happen within a few months.

D-Ani
Zhisheng
(03/05/2003; 09:18:30 MDT - Msg ID: 98954)
@Dummy ANI
Your post #98953 looks interesting, but apparently the Japanese data was left off--or did you intend for the reader to fill it in? Tried the link, but my Japanese isn't good enough.
sector
(03/05/2003; 11:05:37 MDT - Msg ID: 98955)
@Zhisheng Measured Response Indeed
The Dollar Index Value of Gold [DIVG] is flat4-Mar-03 3.766
3-Mar-03 3.669
28-Feb-03 3.677
27-Feb-03 3.715
26-Feb-03 3.731
25-Feb-03 3.789
24-Feb-03 3.760
21-Feb-03 3.713
20-Feb-03 3.716
19-Feb-03 3.637
18-Feb-03 3.609
17-Feb-03 3.641
14-Feb-03 3.717
13-Feb-03 3.708
12-Feb-03 3.715
+++++++++++++++++++

The DIVG is the dollar price of gold divided by the Major Currency Dollar Index.

It is clear from this data that the true value of gold hasn't really changed at all since Feb12th. Therefore we are in a sideways transition. The blow-off spike to $388 was a margin increase phenomenon and is now under the influence of normal forces. Which is to say official central bank selling to manage its price.

Compare this with the Euro Index Value of Gold [EIVG].

4-Mar-03 2.97
3-Mar-03 2.95
28-Feb-03 2.99
27-Feb-03 3.03
26-Feb-03 3.03
25-Feb-03 3.06
24-Feb-03 3.06
21-Feb-03 3.02
20-Feb-03 3.01
19-Feb-03 3.00
18-Feb-03 3.00
17-Feb-03 2.99
14-Feb-03 3.04
13-Feb-03 3.01
12-Feb-03 3.10

The EIVG was up at 3.2 for many weeks. Therefore the purchase price for an ounce of gold is getting les expensive in Euro Land while things deteriorate in a macro economic sense over on this side of the big water.

These levels are changing this week by the looks of the Euro being up at 1.1 this morning. The next leg will be up for both the dollar index and the Euro Index Values of Gold and the putative war may be the launch date.

The gold cartel has worked very hard to get gold share investors, gold market speculators and institutions wrong-footed for the next move.

Ignore the gold media "Experts" such as L Kaplan and his ilk.

Read here, buy here.
LaffintheDark
(03/05/2003; 11:25:56 MDT - Msg ID: 98956)
Warhead in Alaska... Is this old news?
http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nation/200303/kt2003030417272311970.htmsnippet:

The warhead of a long-range missile test-fired by North Korea was found in the U.S. state of Alaska, a report to the National Assembly revealed yesterday.



- Haven't heard any news about this yet. Seems like a pretty big story to me. Enough to bring me out of the assembly of this fine crowd in a long time!


Zhisheng
(03/05/2003; 11:40:44 MDT - Msg ID: 98957)
@Sector
Thanks for the figures: good circumstantial evidence for price fixing.

Today the dollar index oscillated about 98.4 until near the close of the NY gold market, when it dropped to about 98.3.
During the same period, spot gold went from $356 to $354 to $352.60. Bruno is flexing his muscles.
mikal
(03/05/2003; 11:43:32 MDT - Msg ID: 98958)
Correction and apology
http://www.etherzone.com/2003/pyne030503.shtmlRe: msg.# 98947
This is the correct link to the excerpted story. Thank you.
a nation of one
(03/05/2003; 11:52:21 MDT - Msg ID: 98959)
...

One thing I like about these charts at kitco and ino.com is if you get shocked by a sudden large fall in pog, just wait a few hours and it will look a lot smaller, as the vertical increments change from 50 cents to $1 or $2 or $5.
Black Blade
(03/05/2003; 12:23:17 MDT - Msg ID: 98960)
From the Mailbag

Another interesting item popped into my mailbox this morning (courtesy of Bill Bonner � DailyReckoning):

Michael O'Higgins is looking for a depression to begin soon...or to be already in progress. "Perhaps the greatest deflation and depression of all time," he told the Miami Herald over the weekend. O'Higgins, author of "Dogs of the Dow," predicted 3 years ago that stocks would lose half their value. Since then, the S&P 500 has fallen 41%. Now, he says, the damage is far from over. It could be worse than the period '29-'31, he continued, as today's depression would come "following the greatest speculative boom...of all time."

"The hangover may prove to be proportional to the binge," adds Warren Buffett.

So what do you do when you get a "Mauve Alert"? You move to gold, says O'Higgins, "because it's real money; because it has held its value for thousands of years, because it's not subject to manipulation by government or central bankers or dishonest corporate executives."

Even during the Great Depression, '29-'39, gold rose 69%. O'Higgins reportedly owns only one stock: Newmont Mining.

And this:

Maybe gold will go nowhere, of course. Maybe it will even fall in price. But what do we care? We buy it for insurance. No one complains that his wife doesn't get to cash in his life insurance policy. Likewise, if the price of gold doesn't go up...then, the U.S. economy has not gone to hell. We still have our jobs...our homes...our piggy SUVs...our snobby wines...


Black Blade: The equities markets don't look very healthy these days and as Warren Buffett (arguably the most successful investor of all time) commented there are few stocks that even spark a mild interest for him. We are in a long term secular bear market that will last several years. War and terrorism are a daily fact of life, "cheap energy" is a thing of the past, and rising inflation is about all the Fed has left in its arsenal. These are "interesting times".
Topaz
(03/05/2003; 12:34:46 MDT - Msg ID: 98961)
CoBra(too)
Was that ANOTHER stout-hearted Knight I just caught a glimpse of riding off?
Adieu cb2...don't stray (too) far, and I41 will be keenly awaiting your safe return.
Gandalf the White
(03/05/2003; 12:50:03 MDT - Msg ID: 98962)
UP-DATE on POG CONTEST "KING of the HILL" status ! <;-)
<<<< SNIP >>>>
**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com
---
Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
2/28/03 GC3J HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 OI = 105,993
3/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 OI = 104,153
3/04/03 GC3J HIGH = $354.9 low = $349.5 Settlement = $353.3 Change +$4.0 OI = 105,279
3/05/03 GC3J HIGH = $358.8 low = $352.3 Settlement = $353.2 -$0.1 OI = ?
===
Contest FIRST DAY, 2/28, Sir Kevin$ was "King of the Hill"
Contest SECOND DAY, 3/3, Sir Kevin$ was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!
Contest THIRD DAY, 3/4, Sir Zelts waw "King of the Hill" !!!
Contest FOURTH DAY, 3/5, Sir Zelts is AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!!
===
Less than SIX days to Enter the CONTESTS.
<;-)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/05/2003; 13:13:20 MDT - Msg ID: 98963)
The falling dollar: Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

The dollar has been continuously devalued without stop for the past 57 years. It has
not appreciated against goods and services once -- not even once -- in that entire time period.
There are periods when this policy has not been fully reflected in the price of gold.

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

Marie Ballard Ext 106

We look forward to your inquiry.

ge
(03/05/2003; 13:32:23 MDT - Msg ID: 98964)
Turkish General Backs U.S. Deployment
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=535&ncid=535&e=5&u=/ap/20030305/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_us_iraq_88"Turkey's powerful military chief said Wednesday that the army backed the deployment of U.S. troops in the country for a war in neighboring Iraq."
Black Blade
(03/05/2003; 13:40:07 MDT - Msg ID: 98965)
Shouting Match at Islamic Unity Summit
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-2455671,00.html
Snippit:

The gathering of the 57-member Organization of the Islamic Conference was the third high-level gathering in the region in a week aimed at trying to prevent a war - and the second to be marred by bitter, insulting exchanges. Arab and Islamic nations are divided on whether war can be averted while Saddam Hussein remains in power.

The spat broke out as the Iraqi vice president, Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, was delivering a scathing speech against Kuwaiti leaders, condemning them for ``treason ... and conspiracy with Zionism and colonialism'' for hosting U.S. troops.

He derided Kuwait's foreign minister, saying, ``Today, you see how in all swaggering and rudeness, he ... threatens Iraq's security at the core and calls on American troops to amass in his land -'' At that point, he was interrupted by an inaudible remark from Sheik Mohammed Sabah Al Salem Al Sabah.

Al-Douri retorted, ``Shut up you monkey. Curse be upon your mustache, you traitor'' - using a traditional insult to a man's honor.

``This is hypocrisy and falsehood,'' Sheik Mohammed shot back, in remarks aired live by Arab satellite television stations.

Kuwaiti Information Minister Sheik Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed leaped up and waved a small Kuwaiti flag.

The summit's host, Qatari emir Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, admonished al-Douri, telling him: ``You started your speech with a verse from the Quran saying, `Thou shalt be united by the word of God.'' The emir then moved on to the next speaker - from Afghanistan - saying, ``We are not here for such exchanges.''

Iraqi delegates left the room briefly until they were persuaded to return. ``The Iraqis always behave like this,'' Sheik Ahmed said.


Black Blade: Unity Summit eh? I saw this early this morning and at first I thought I didn't hear the translation correctly. I have to admit, these guys certainly have a way with words. It was rather funny though. I despise politicians but at times they do provide some comic relief. Meanwhile it appears that war is only days off now.

TownCrier
(03/05/2003; 14:30:23 MDT - Msg ID: 98966)
Government gold is not yours by proxy, so don't cry when it's gone.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030305/economy_canada_reserves_3.htmlHEADLINE: Canada sells 15 pct of gold reserve on price surge

OTTAWA, March 5 (Reuters) - Canada sold 15 percent of its gold reserves last month as prices surged to 6-1/2 year highs and used the money to add to its higher-yielding foreign currency investments.

[["Higher-yielding" in the sense of any interest earned through lending/bonds, but not necessarily higher end value in terms of net capital appreciation. Hmph!]]

..."What we buy with the (gold) proceeds depends on...the available securities matching in the portfolio we follow," a finance official said.

Finance ministry figures released on Wednesday showed that the government sold 90,588 ounces of gold in February, leaving its holdings at slightly above 500,000 ounces. That is down from about 21 million ounces in 1980 before Canada's gold sales started.

...Canada's overall foreign reserves fell by $1.73 billion to $35.9 billion last month as Canada paid off a $2 billion global bond and made several other transactions such as raising euro and yen investments by $15 million each, finance ministry data showed.

Euro deposits and securities holdings of $14.26 billion in February are more than double their level of two years ago and are 40 percent of the total from 21 percent in February 2001.

-------(see url for full news)-------

The gold sales are probably conducted more on the basis of political justification than pure economic prudence. In that regard, it is noteworthy then that the dollar doesn't seem to be finding much favor as the paper of choice, however, the euro and yen being prime beneficiaries of the gold receipts.

The lesson here is that governments' holdings do not serve the individual directly. To benefit from gold ownership, you must take it upon yourself to hold reserves of the yellow metal personally. Then you alone can dictate when the reserves are either increased or liquidated to meet your needs, independent of the macro-politics of the day. As it should be.

R.
Boilermaker
(03/05/2003; 14:33:13 MDT - Msg ID: 98967)
``Shut up you monkey. Curse be upon your mustache, you traitor''
It's clear that we Americans must teach the ways of Political Correctness to these good folks. :)

Boilermaker
Black Blade
(03/05/2003; 14:49:36 MDT - Msg ID: 98968)
Iranian Nuclear Power Project

A couple of days ago someone asked why Iran would need nuclear power if they were swimming in oil. I have just finished reading a report entitled "Long Decline in Oil Sector Means Shrinking Role for Iranian Supply in �New World Order�, by Mansour S. Kashfi, a consultant with Kashex International and Assoc. Resource Consultants Inc. and former senior geologist with Iranian National Oil Co. 1971-1978. In short Iran is fast depleting its oil reserve and the apparently plan is to offset oil depletion with a domestic nuclear power program utilizing domestic uranium deposits in order to save oil for export and badly needed income. He states "�considering that domestic consumption of oil and gas is growing at a rate of about 5.2%/year, it is reasonable to conclude that by year 2018, there will be no (Iranian) oil to export". It should be noted that Iran has been cheating on OPEC quotas and is producing at capacity. In fact Middle East oil producers are operating at near full capacity even during this period of weak demand and as many producing countries have reached peak production. It also highlights why western nations are split over the Iraqi situation (war vs. no war) as each side is in a panic over declining oil supply. Once abundant "cheap energy" is unavailable the global economy will collapse.

- Black Blade
TownCrier
(03/05/2003; 15:02:57 MDT - Msg ID: 98969)
When it comes to markets, traders (rightfully) have selective hearing
http://news.nasdaq.com/news/newsStory.aspx?&cpath=20030305\ACQCOM200303051618AFXNEWS_EN_COM_F_5277_05.htmHEADLINE: Forex - Dollar weaker in late New York on Iraq; Snow latest comment ignored

NEW YORK (AFX) - The dollar continued its slide against major currencies in late trade ... The US unit's losses, (dealers) said, were ... a continuation of yesterday's bearish sentiment following Treasury Secretary John Snow's statement yesterday that he is "not particularly concerned" about the dollar's decline since the G7 finance ministers meeting last month.

The market interpreted his comment as a shift from the administration's long-held strong dollar policy. To most traders, Snow's statement probably reflects the true attitude of monetary and fiscal authorities in the US.

...Meanwhile, Snow's latest comment today, supporting a strong dollar policy after flirting with a weak dollar stance yesterday provoked no market reaction.

"His latest comment was largely ignored by the market. He has lost credibility," said Larry Brickman, currency strategist at Bank of America. "The trade and current account imbalances are widening and can not continue to do so forever," he said.

--------(see url for full text)---------

Also covered in the text:

"Traders were also not reading too much into an expected rate cut by the European Central Bank tomorrow. Although they expect a slight knee-jerk impact on the euro, traders are skeptical the rate cut could weigh significantly on the currency."

Primary stock trend down... primary dollar trend down... call USAGOLD- Centennial for gold, nicely trending up.

R.
TownCrier
(03/05/2003; 15:18:33 MDT - Msg ID: 98970)
Paper
http://www.adn.com/24hour/business/story/793261p-5667873c.htmlHEADLINE: New Treasury chief signs next series of dollar bills

AP WASHINGTON (March 5) - With cameras whirring and clicking, a smiling Treasury Secretary John Snow signed his name with flair, relishing one of the perks of the job: signing his name on the nation's greenbacks.

Roughly 8 billion notes are made each year.

"What a great treat to be able to be here," Snow said. "Doesn't every American boy grow up wanting to have his name on the currency?" Snow quickly added that it is probably the dream of every girl, too. The room erupted in laughter.

...Snow used the signing ceremony to make a pitch for the president's tax-cut package. Swift congressional passage "will ensure that more of these notes stay in the pockets of the American family," Snow said.

-------(see url)------

We can only hope that these same American families see the writing on the wall and diversify their holdings to include gold. Call Centennial for knowledgeable and courteous consultation and assistance in placing your order for gold.

R.
misetich
(03/05/2003; 15:25:02 MDT - Msg ID: 98971)
Slowing Growth in Services Sector a Bad Omen
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=2332421Snip:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The huge U.S. services sector slowed its pace of growth last month and the number of jobs in the sector fell, reinforcing views of a U.S. economy struggling with a hangover from the boom years and, now, fear of war.
The bad news for the services sector was countered to some degree by a separate report on Wednesday that showed the U.S. housing sector, a pillar of strength since the economy started softening nearly three years ago, remains robust.
............
Businesses, the Fed said, are also facing a profit squeeze due to the inability to charge customers for higher energy costs.
"We have estimated that for every $10 increase in oil prices, overall profits should fall by 7.5 percent in that quarter," Lehman Brothers economist Drew Matus said in a research note.
..........
Jobs in the services sector fell in February after a January gain, dimming a ray of hope for the overall economy. The ISM's employment index fell back under the critical 50.0 level to 49.0 from 50.3 in January.
******************
Misetich

Corporate profits are being squeezed by higher energy costs - more layoffs are looming on the horizon as the auto and housing industry are poised to slowdown and further corporate earnings disappointments and downward revisions will drive stock markets lower

The second phase of the big bad bear market is here - a 20 to 30% correction is to be expected from these lofty levels to adjust to expected earnings - within the next 6 months

Paper pushers are too optimistic and reality will bite them again and again

In the meanwhile smart investors who have added physical gold to their portfolio - are reaping the benefits of intelligent investing

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?









Simply Me
(03/05/2003; 16:38:35 MDT - Msg ID: 98972)
@Black Blade
RE:Black Blade (03/05/03; 14:49:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98968)
Iranian Nuclear Power Project

A couple of days ago someone asked why Iran would need nuclear power if they were swimming in oil. I have just finished reading a report entitled "Long Decline in Oil Sector Means Shrinking Role for Iranian Supply in �New World Order�, by Mansour S. Kashfi, a consultant with Kashex International and Assoc.

Me: I asked. Thanks for the response. It certainly makes sense. Large infrastructure changes require long time frames....but I am still suspicous of the timing.
Simply
Sundeck
(03/05/2003; 17:05:35 MDT - Msg ID: 98973)
Barrick proceeds in libel suit against coin dealer
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1035778694650&call_pageid=968350072197&col=968705923364

Snip:
"
Barrick Gold Corp. commenced proceedings today in a libel suit against an American coin dealer that accused Canada's largest gold producer of conspiring to manipulate the price of gold.

Barrick is seeking damages of $200 million and a permanent injunction from the Ontario Superior Court preventing Blanchard and Co. and its CEO Donald Doyle from "repeating, disseminating, publishing or causing to be re-published" the alleged defamatory statements.

"We value highly our reputation for carrying on business in a proper, ethical and lawful manner and will not tolerate the dissemination of false statements that are harmful to our reputation, business interests and stakeholders," stated Barrick president and chief executive Greg Wilkins.

"

Sundeck:

Methinks they protesteth rather loudly...

Will it boil down to who has the most money?

Sundeck
(03/05/2003; 17:17:45 MDT - Msg ID: 98974)
IRAN: TURNING TO GOLD AS WAR CASTS ITS SHADOW
http://www.mmorning.com/article.asp?Article=5044&CategoryID=6
Snip:

"
Iran's central bank has introduced measures designed to bring down soaring gold prices, including easing procedures for the import of gold and silver bullion, local media reports indicate.
The reports quote several officials as saying that Iranians were turning to gold amid continued uncertainty over Iraq and the volatility of foreign currency markets.
The fluctuation in domestic gold markets was due to a possible US attack on Iraq, which may jeopardize the free flow oil from the region, Commerce Minister Mohammad Shariatmadari suggested.
Iranian gold coins, a favorite for marriage portions, have risen in price from 650,000 to 800,000 rials (81.25 to 100 dollars) in the past two months.
"

Sundeck: 19% appreciation in two months on gold coins, not bad? Citizens in countries near the flashpoint preparing are preparing themselves.
Sundeck
(03/05/2003; 17:37:13 MDT - Msg ID: 98975)
Value of gold sends shivers down state mines
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=7255515&BRD=1817&PAG=461&dept_id=222087&rfi=6
Snips:

"
PHOENIX (AP) - Surging gold prices have sparked a new wave of gold fever in Arizona. Mining companies are making plans to open dormant gold mines, and individual prospectors are heading for the hills armed with gold pans and metal detectors.
"If these prices are sustained, we could see considerably more activity," said Al Burch, a manager with the Bureau of Land Management in Phoenix.

....

From 1992 to 1999, annual gold production in Arizona declined from 7,000 kilograms valued at $74 million to 700 kilograms valued at $7.1 million. Since 1999, production has been negligible.

But the rising prices have generated renewed enthusiasm for precious metals.

.....

In Nevada, the world's third-largest gold producer behind South Africa and Australia, geologists are working again and the assay offices are busy. Nevada produced almost $2.5 billion in gold last year.

"People are coming back," said Allan Coyner, director of the Nevada Mineral Division.

Mining companies are not the only ones catching gold fever.

At A&B Prospecting and Mining Equipment in Mesa, the increased price is "all anyone is talking about," says Tom Van, who works at the prospecting outfitter when he is not hunting for gold. A&B's business has increased along with the price of gold, he said.

"

Sundeck: Looks like an outbreak of gold fever in the west...could be fatal...looks like fiat vaccination is wearing off.

:-)

ElGordo
(03/05/2003; 19:12:25 MDT - Msg ID: 98976)
Trolls losing hope
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=2332935A FADING RAY OF HOPE?

Jobs in the services sector fell in February after a January gain, dimming a ray of hope for the overall economy. The ISM's employment index fell back under the critical 50.0 level to 49.0 from 50.3 in January.

With a sharp drop in manufacturing employment in the ISM's influential factory sector survey on Monday, analysts said the overall U.S. employment report due on Friday might turn out much weaker than expected.
mikal
(03/05/2003; 19:36:31 MDT - Msg ID: 98977)
Spot gold
I don't know why INO is showing gold down, because spot gold is up $.50 from the NY close. But I promised myself I wouldn't post small changes in price, so I'll let this one slip and then it's up to the others!
Black Blade
(03/05/2003; 21:04:23 MDT - Msg ID: 98978)
Fed's Beige Book Says Growth `Subdued' in Early 2003
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmZULRQcRmVkJ3Mg
Snippit:

Washington, March 5 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy ``remained subdued'' over the past two months as concern over war with Iraq constrained consumer and business spending, the Federal Reserve said in its most recent survey of regional economic conditions, known as the beige book. ``Aside from housing, just about every sector is struggling right now,'' said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial, a division of First Tennessee National Corp., and the largest underwriter of bonds issued by U.S. agencies such as Fannie Mae. ``The underlying state of the economy is not encouraging.''

Some of the Fed's business contacts expressed concern about the rising costs of energy and insurance, which they are unable to pass along to consumers, the beige book said. The 58.6 percent rise in oil prices over the past twelve months is having ``wide- ranging'' economic effects throughout the country, the Fed said, ranging from higher raw materials costs to increases in shipping costs. The Fed banks reported mixed construction activity, and slow business loan demand. Delinquencies and defaults rose slightly on some household loans, a few districts reported. Some New York Fed district banks tightened credit standards while lenders report an ``upturn in delinquency rates on consumer loans,'' the Beige Book said.

The Fed's Open Market Committee reduced its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point on Nov. 6 to 1.25 percent, the lowest rate in 41 years. Growth slowed in the fourth quarter to a 1.4 percent annual rate from 4 percent in the previous three months. Growth for the year totaled 2.4 percent, about 1 percentage point below what economists estimate as the economy's potential growth rate.


Black Blade: Certainly not a ringing endorsement of the so-called "economic recovery". Truth is consumer spending is slowing down and that is putting Wall Street on notice that the economy is trouble. Yet the spin will be to put the light on what can be twisted into some kind of positive statement. It is "confession season" again and so far the nubers have been horrible as more companies are warning of lower earnings (or greater losses). Here too we will hear the typical spin as analysts quickly lower earnings estimates so that companies can "beat the street". This recession is getting uglier all the time.

ElGordo
(03/05/2003; 21:29:24 MDT - Msg ID: 98979)
N Korea will continue testing missiles?
(Bloomberg) -- North Korea may be preparing to test fire a mid-range ballistic missile capable of striking Japan, the Kyodo news agency reported, citing an unnamed U.S. government official.

The launch of a ballistic missile would break a pledge made by North Korea to Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in September that it would maintain a freeze on missile tests. Any missile firing would worsen tensions on the Korean peninsula that has hurt stock prices in Japan and Korea and the South Korean won. The won today dropped to its lowest level in three weeks.
Black Blade
(03/05/2003; 21:42:37 MDT - Msg ID: 98980)
Panic is near if 'The gold is gone'
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=37116051&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:

The "lunatic fringe" long has argued that the price of gold was being manipulated by a "gold cartel" involving J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the US. Treasury and the Federal Reserve, but that the manipulation had been sufficiently exposed to require that it be abandoned, producing the steady upward increase in the price of the shiny, yellow metal. In fact the "gold bugs," as they're known, are so sure of their research that not only do they believe the price of gold will continue to climb, but many are expecting to see prices of $800 to $1,000 an ounce. Until recently, most in the gold and financial worlds scoffed at such a prediction, but last month the Bank of Portugal made an announcement that shocked those who credit official goldreserve data and added fuel to the contention of the gold bugs that the "goldcartel" manipulation is in meltdown.

What the Bank of Portugal revealed in its 2001 annual report is that 433 tonnes [metric tons] of gold - some 70 percent of its gold reserve - either have been lent or swapped into the market. According to Bill Murphy, chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), a nonprofit organization that researches and studies the gold market and reports its findings at www.LeMetropoleCafe.com: "This gold is gone - and it lends support to our years of research that the central banks do not have the 32,000 tonnes of gold in reserve that they claim. The big question is: How many other central banks are in the same predicament as the Portuguese?"

The gold bugs appear to be basing their identification of a world gold shortage on industry data, much of which has been summarized in two papers prepared by four different gold analysts at different times using separate methods. The first paper was written by governmental investment adviser Frank Veneroso and his associate, mining analyst Declare Costelloe. Titled Gold Derivatives, Gold Lending: Official Management of the Gold Price and the Current State of the Gold Market, it was presented at the 2002 International Gold Symposium in Lima, Peru, and estimates the gold deficit of the central banks at between 10,000 and 15,000 tonnes. The second paper, Gold Derivatives: Moving Towards Checkmate, by Mike Bolser, a retired businessman, and Reginald H. Howe, a private investor and proprietor of the Website www .goldensextant.com, estimates the alleged shortage of central-bank gold at between 15,000 and 16,000 tonnes nearly a decade's worth of mine production.

George Milling-Stanley, manager of gold-market analysis for the World Gold Council (WGC), a private organization made up of leading gold-mining companies that promotes the acquisition and retention of gold, is aware of these papers and shortage numbers but tells INsiGHT that "there are no official [goldreserve] reports." That is, "The central banks are under no obligation to report what they lend into the market, what they place on deposit and what they do with their swaps, so there's a conventional-wisdom view, and a couple of different bodies have done some fairly serious research in[to] this and have come up with a figure [of] around 4,500 to 5,000 tonnes."

Stanley's estimate is based on data provided by so-called "serious" researchers, including London-based Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), one of the world's foremost precious-metals consultants, and a report titled Gold Derivatives: The Market View, commissioned by the WGC to London-based Virtual Metals Consultancy. While these two groups appear to be the research choice of the official gold world, there are in fact no "official" figures, and both studies, like the Veneroso/Costelloe and Bolser/Howe reports, are based on interviews, data analysis and other research generally available to the industry.

Although the WGC's Stanley stands by the data provided by the industry's "serious" researchers, he insists he cannot say for certain that the numbers are accurate. "There is no requirement on any country to tell the IMF how much gold it owns," says Stanley. "The requirement is to tell the IMF how much gold it has decided to place in its official reserves. Nobody knows whether that is the total of what they own or not. Obviously they can't report more than what they own, but they can certainly report less if they chose to. That gold may have been lent out, but is nevertheless still owed to them. It's a bit like any company reporting a cash position. It will report cash on hand and cash due - money owed by other people. I'm not saying this is ideal, but this is how it works."

Whether the gold bugs are right about the reasons for the meteoric rise in the price of gold is uncertain, but, according to GATAs Murphy: "It's all the more reason to have the central banks come clean about the actual amount of gold that physically exists in their reserves. Either way, the price of gold will continue to rise because, as we already know and others are discovering, the gold is gone."


Black Blade: Interesting read but I seriously doubt that the central banks will ever come clean about their holdings. The same holds true about an official detailed audit of Fort Knox gold. Curiously the government has repeatedly refused to undertake such an audit. Hmmm�

Operative
(03/05/2003; 22:20:53 MDT - Msg ID: 98981)
Looking Down The Trail Ahead
http://www.forbes.com/2003/03/05/cz_jd_0305watch.htmlGood article, I liked the qoute (paraphrased) "if you are not buying gold in this economy you should not be managing money..)
sector
(03/05/2003; 22:34:15 MDT - Msg ID: 98982)
@BlackBlade Central Banks Coming Clean...
...enough of them have come clean......for us to draw conclusions about how much metal they have left.

It's about half of what they had in 1990.

Moreover, the central bank strategy going forward has two paths (1) sell the rest as soon as possible leaving nothing or (2) ration out the remaining 15,000 tonnes in an intelligent manner that takes selling pressure lower and gold higher.

They must get to a point where selling can cease. We have timing clues:

The formerly strong dollar has been dead since SECTREAS O'Neill was given more time with his family. It's on a line down with the Euro now on the move back up.

BTW the Euro went sideways during the Iraq war back and forth "Negotiations". Now that the Prez will go it alone, the Euro is near vertical. Hmmmm. Welcome to a disintegrating G-7 and central bankers at each other's throats.

Gold will be released in a controlled fashion under cover of the war, catching all the weak handed gold specs and sissy share buyers turned punters, flat-footed...again. The Fed uses these hapless mopes for punching bags.

Read here...buy here.


Buy and hold...no matter what.
Operative
(03/05/2003; 22:36:35 MDT - Msg ID: 98983)
Jack In The Box
While looking over some of the gold charts, daily and weekly, the left side connected with the right side of my brain with this visual. Watching the Manipulation Team and thier continuing efforts to beat down gold is like my grandson who recently tried to get the spring loaded "Jack"
back into it's box using a toy plastic hammer. I wonder if the Manipulators are having as much fun? If they are smiling and laughing, it is for a short period of time, and at a great expense. I wonder if they are aware that the latch is broken?

With thoughts of laughing children I'm off to bed. Night all.
ElGordo
(03/06/2003; 00:16:59 MDT - Msg ID: 98984)
Bill Gross : The US is Finished
http://www.newsmax.com/showinside.shtml?a=2003/2/6/163657U.S. "hegemony," as he puts it, is at an end. "The U.S. [economy] ... rests on a fragile foundation built upon consumer spending and trade deficits as opposed to mercantilism and trade surpluses. ... These deficits, coming at a time of American military expansion in pursuit of terrorist containment, threaten to reverse our hegemonic benefits and end our economic domination. Our SUVs, as well as our top cat near-monopoly of the good times are at risk."

So, Gross is correct on this point: We don't manufacture anything here, and we now have a trade deficit. And whose fault is that? More patriotic Americans who have outsourced manufacturing to the cheap labor markets overseas.

Gross continued: "The 'US of A,' it seems, is becoming less wealthy by the minute as foreign investment is being withheld and in some cases redirected to Chinese and other more-attractive ports of call."
_______
I don't endorse the views of NewsMax, they just happened
to have done a revealing interview with Bill Gross.
Bill is really letting himself go lately.
ElGordo
(03/06/2003; 00:43:10 MDT - Msg ID: 98985)
Warren Buffet, Bill Gross on derivatives
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmb0MhW2V2FycmVu``The range of derivatives contracts is limited only by the imagination of man or sometimes, so it seems, madmen,'' said Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. once won a $60 million bet using derivatives on stocks called put options. Buffett made his comments in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, excerpts of which were published on the Fortune magazine Web site.

Banks such as J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are selling and trading more derivatives as slumping stocks push investors into new kinds of investments. Companies most often use derivatives to guard against swings in interest rates, currencies or credit ratings.

Revenue at U.S. commercial banks from trading derivatives and their underlying assets was $8.9 billion in the first nine months of last year, according to the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The top seven banks accounted for 79 percent of the total.

J.P. Morgan is the largest derivatives user, followed by Bank of America and Citigroup Inc., according to the OCC, which doesn't require investment banks to report revenue figures.
___________
Great article on derivatives
ElGordo
(03/06/2003; 00:46:58 MDT - Msg ID: 98986)
SEC wants more "reality"
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmbt6BTSU0VDIEZhWashington, March 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission officials say they're concerned that companies are obscuring their pension losses in federal filings and giving investors incomplete information.

``There was a general lack of informative transparent disclosure,'' says Carol Stacey, chief accountant of the SEC's division of corporation finance. She says she reviewed more then 500 annual reports for 2001 with her staff. ``We strongly encourage companies to remedy this in future filings.''

Companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost more than $200 billion in the past two years in pension investments without clearly disclosing those losses in SEC filings, according to studies by investment banks Credit Suisse First Boston and UBS Warburg LLC.
___________
Got Gold?
Topaz
(03/06/2003; 00:53:37 MDT - Msg ID: 98987)
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Cfvxy%2Ctnxy%2Cgcg03.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=15&go.y=14
This 4.65% L/B yield is sure proving a feisty hurdle to jump...or are the Bond Traders just teasing Topaz?
The "cost-of-carry" when factored against the Yield IMO puts this level hard up against Cash...and any move lower will prompt a wholesale sell-off.
Gold will ONLY shine when it is eyeballing CASH as the ONLY asset to hold.

We have but to WAIT...and HOLD.
Topaz
(03/06/2003; 01:16:13 MDT - Msg ID: 98988)
Sorry about the Link...cut and paste it.
Just to reiterate, when last we were at this bond Yield level (early Oct 02) the yield "triple-bottomed" and shot UP.
The Fed acknowledged with a 50bp rate-cut...mid meeting...and stopped the bleeding.
I'm thinking, given the LOW volume, and less pronounced "bouncing"...perhaps we're seeing ONLY house trading (Banks and whatnot) and the vast bulk of Bondholders having their finger on the sell trigger as I type!
Pimco sure sounds "excited".
Black Blade
(03/06/2003; 01:23:19 MDT - Msg ID: 98989)
Market Indicators
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures are lower, the USD is higher, Gold is holding a bit higher, oil and NatGas are higher.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(03/06/2003; 01:29:23 MDT - Msg ID: 98990)
Asian Markets Sink, Euro Markets Waver
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets turned negative while Euro markets are wavering but most are slightly positive.

- Black Blade
Zhisheng
(03/06/2003; 01:57:39 MDT - Msg ID: 98991)
WHO HAS IT?
I will proceed from the assumption that Sector is correct in his post (#98982) where he predicts that gold will be permitted to rise in an orderly manner upon commencement of hostilities in Iraq.

Sir Alan Greenspan, sometime described as the most powerful man in the world, has this year publicly spoken about governments not always exercising suitable self-restraint when dealing with purely fiat currencies. Some have drawn inference therefrom that there is a plan in the foreseeable future to reintroduce some fractional backing (presumably gold) for the dollar. Others have said that Sir Greenspan, slated for retirement from the Federal Reserve later this year, no longer can predict US monetary intentions with certainty, and so may be speaking for his own purposes instead of intimating public policy.

But orderly rise of the dollar price of gold, IS consistent with reintroduction of gold backing of the dollar: the higher the price of gold, the less gold necessary to back the mass of US dollars outstanding. And so it is reasonable that Greenspan's public musings may be part of that plausible continuity which Government finds it expedient to attach to its actions.

And returning gold to a formal connection with the dollar, even if only fractional and temporary, would render gold once again an item of importance to central banks. Now if, as Sector reckons, half of the total 1990 central bank hoard of gold has been sold or loaned out, it becomes a matter of some interest as to whither that gold has gone. Some have speculated that occidental central banks have sold mainly to other occidental central banks, selling only to place downward pressure on the price. Some say that central bank sales have served to make up the yearly 1500 ton shortfall of production relative to demand. Some say that the buyers have been oriental central banks which have foreseen the devaluation of the dollar bringing return of a partial gold standard, and have prepared accordingly. Some say the buyers have been private financial powers who have foreseen worldwide financial crisis, with attendant failure of all major world currencies, essaying to preserve and increase their wealth by purchase of gold. Some say that there are those who fear the US will use the dollar for political purposes to impose its will, and so have been buying gold to insure some measure of independence.

So.....the very interesting question seems to be: "Who has bought the gold?"
Topaz
(03/06/2003; 02:37:13 MDT - Msg ID: 98992)
The Euro.
Seems FX trading is factoring in a 50bp rate-cut for the ECcentrics, the LAST thing the Dollar needs NOW is a Euro rate cut.
Their (ECB's) decision will point to a "currency War" or collusive "global management"imo.

Where IS Belgian?
Sundeck
(03/06/2003; 03:17:16 MDT - Msg ID: 98993)
Why no dollar rally?
Why has there been no Japanese-buying-induced rally in the dollar?
Sundeck
(03/06/2003; 04:20:56 MDT - Msg ID: 98994)
ElGordo #98986 - Derivatives
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmb0MhW2V2FycmVuSnip:

"
``What Buffett is saying is not so much that derivatives are bad per se but that they are sometimes quite opaque and can be used by dishonest and unscrupulous people to create false accounting,'' said Michael Spencer, chief executive of ICAP Plc, the world's largest interbank derivatives brokerage. ``What is needed is better transparency on the valuation methods, not the abolition of derivatives.''

"

Sundeck:

Oh is THAT what WEB is saying...that is OK then...all we need, Mr Spencer (the doyen of unbiassed derivatives knowledge) is a description of the mark-to-myth models? What a farce! Can you see these major institutions disclosing their proprietry models? As if they mean anything anyway. They are compiled by intelligent, but inexperienced people without much understanding of the real world of Chance and, certainly, without access to sufficient data. You need a couple of hundred years of data to allow the statisticians to build credible populations of relevant data from which to derive models, AND of course a completely separate set of equivalent data against which the models are tested, and then we will have integrity in the models and ""***TRANSPARENCY***"".

In the mean time, what about the toxic sewage that has built up to fill 128 $T-cans for which no such integrity or transparency exists?

One difference IMO between Warren Buffett and these derivatives turkeys is that Buffett knows when he does NOT understand something.

Old Chinese saying:

He who knows that he knows is a leader, follow him.
He who knows that he knows not is teachable, teach him.
He who knows not that he knows is asleep, awaken him.
He who knows not that he knows not is a fool, spurn him!

:-)

Sundeck


ElGordo
(03/06/2003; 04:29:04 MDT - Msg ID: 98995)
German Unemployment 11.3%
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2825091.stmGerman unemployment has risen to 11.3%, its highest level during the government of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.

The figures - early double what economists had been expecting - are another embarrassment to Mr Schroeder who has persistently promised to bring unemployment down.

Economy minister Wolfgang Clement described the latest data as "extremely serious" but rejected speculation that promised tax cuts would be brought forward in order to encourage economic growth.
________
Bloomberg says its 10.5%? hmmm
The world economy looks really bad.

Arcticfox
(03/06/2003; 05:22:57 MDT - Msg ID: 98996)
Topaz..concerning bond yield
The last time that the bond was yielding in this range, the DOW was 600 pts lower. So if the rumors of repatriation are indeed true, than where is the liquidity coming from to keep the Dow up as well as the bond rate down. If this manifestation is a measure of "ppt" fiat creation, than this data should show up on one of the M's (1,2 or 3). Anyone else notice how many 52 wk lows are hitting on the s&p but all the fed has to do is nibble on futures comprised within the 30 Dow components to get the flagpoles that appear out of nowhere on the charts. Explain to me again what free markets and lazzie faire are.
TownCrier
(03/06/2003; 05:26:43 MDT - Msg ID: 98997)
As the world is always changing, expect... (you guessed it) change!
http://keyinvest.ubswarburg.com/ki/ch/en/newsbody.ki?newsid=782663HEADLINE: China to revamp government, eye on economy

BEIJING, March 6 (Reuters) - China unveiled an ambitious government revamp on Thursday to tackle ailing banks and sickly state firms, twin issues that threaten to undermine the world's fastest-growing major economy.

...The amount of bad debt in China's banking system could run into the hundreds of billions of dollars, accounting for as much as half of all loans.

A $1.2 trillion pool of deposits has so far kept the banks
afloat, but that could change as China, the world's sixth-largest economy, opens its financial sector wider to foreign competition and gives people alternative places to save their money.

...The steps could encourage more lending to private firms that account for most of China's economic growth but are starved for cash as lenders stick to government-backed firms.

"Who is creating jobs? It's not the government, it's not the state firms, it's the private sector. But it's sad to see the private sector has very little access to credit. Money cannot get to the guy who can generate jobs," said HSBC's Qu Hongbin.

..."The reforms are necessary because the government has to react to the shifting towards a market economy," said Wang Zhimin, a parliament delegate from Shandong province.

China's economy grew eight percent last year thanks to
booming exports, a flood of foreign investment and hefty state spending on projects such as highways, bridges and power grids. Beijing is aiming for seven percent economic growth in 2003.

------(see url for text)------

Private sector needs more access to credit... annual economic growth 7-8 percent... etc...

While national paper currency is employed and expanded and generally always fated to depreciate to serve social agendas, a person anywhere should be able to hold gold with confidence as their independent form of strong savings. In truth, economic prosperity should be very positive for the future value and demand for gold because newly mined supply from depleting reserves can't always keep pace with growth. Nuances omitted for sake of making a timely point.

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/06/2003; 05:30:12 MDT - Msg ID: 98998)
Ally yourself with a gold broker that is knowledgeable and also cares...

newsletter

In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals' founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:

"[M]uch of this issue is devoted to oil, inflation, international politics and gold. . . . . Though the dollar continued to rise against most international currencies during the past month, most currencies ( including the dollar) were depreciating against real goods. . . . AND IT IS THE TREND THAT HAS ECONOMISTS CONCERNED. Crude oil, which must be purchased with dollars, is being blamed as the chief culprit. When the dollar price of oil rises, it fans the inflationary fires of nearly every nation in the world. All of this could at some point inspire a dollar rebellion among the nations of the world, with both oil producers and oil consumers capable of finding fault with the dollar simultaneously . . . . In such a case gold, of course, would become one of the primary beneficiaries and the dollar could go into a tailspin."

ABCs bookTake note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

News & Views is available to our clientele only. However, the latest issue is back from the printer and available to prospective gold investors who request an INFORMATION PACKET on one-time only basis. We invite your request.

If you would like to get a feel for the thinking that forms the basis for market conclusions like the one featured above, take advantage of the offer to include THE ABCs of GOLD INVESTING: PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH THROUGH PRIVATE GOLD OWNERSHIP. A prompt with ordering information will come up after you submit your request for the INFORMATION PACKET.

Broken Tee
(03/06/2003; 06:03:11 MDT - Msg ID: 98999)
test
test
ElGordo
(03/06/2003; 06:03:59 MDT - Msg ID: 99000)
Saudi oil output at its limit
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2003030600065r7688&SA=Latest%20NewsNEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Saudi Arabia has told Western government and oil officials that the kingdom's crude oil output has reached its limit at around 9.2 million barrels a day and won't rise further, even with a war looming in Iraq, Dow Jones Newswires has learned.

According to Western officials who have spoken with Saudi officials in recent days, there is an understanding that because Saudi output can't rise further, a release of oil from consumer governments' emergency stockpiles is inevitable, if and when, a U.S.-led war is launched on Iraq.

One Saudi Arabian oil ministry official refused to comment on what the Western sources said, and others were unavailable for comment.

Saudi Arabia has maintained that it has about 10.5 million b/d of oil production capacity and that output could be raised to that level within weeks or months, after considerable investment. But the Saudis haven't pumped at that level in more than a decade.
Dollar Bill
(03/06/2003; 06:56:22 MDT - Msg ID: 99001)
ElGordo
Here is some more on Bill Gross from the same people.

"So, supposedly, according to Gross, the smart money will go to Mexico, whose citizens are climbing over each other to get here, and communist China, the repressive dictatorship that allows everything from execution of female babies to slave labor to mass product piracy, and whose people are literally killing themselves to get here.

Oh, and by the way, we mentioned Pimco, a subsidiary of Allianz AG, is moving a hunk of change out of the U.S. bond market. And where is the money going? To China? No. To Mexico? No.

It's going right into the stagnant bond market of our erstwhile "ally" Germany, coincidentally the home country of Allianz.

This smacks of the post-9/11 actions of George Soros to us.

Isn't it nice to have patriotic Americans controlling your money?"

So, Bill Gross is not spin free is guess.

Boilermaker
(03/06/2003; 07:01:27 MDT - Msg ID: 99002)
mikal msg#: 98977 INO Spot Gold
The INO spot gold charts and the "change" shown for the day seem to be calculated from a 12AM EST time base rather than from the NY close. I didn't see this explained at the site but have noticed the change shown is not based on the NY close.
Boilermaker
mikal
(03/06/2003; 07:07:05 MDT - Msg ID: 99003)
Background on U.S. investment climate
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/zihlmann030703.htmlWhy Buy the Swiss Franc and Sell the US Dollar
Excerpt: "Therefore, we dare to predict that the slide of the US dollar against other major currencies (CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY) will continue for a considerable time, as long as the economic imbalances the US carries with other nations are not corrected.
The short-term picture
Short-term, the consolidation that started at the beginning of the month of February seems to be drawing to an end, and we expect an eventual break-down from the area between 1.34 to .1.35 to test the support dating from October 1998 when the dollar briefly dropped to 1.2725.
Are US markets fundamentally cheap?
Historically, a FAIR valuation of US markets has indicated a dividend yield of 4 to 5%. Nonetheless, current dividend yields are still below 2%. Historically cheap US markets yield upwards of 6%. The answer to the above question is therefore simple: NO! As pessimism spreads, gold will rise, the dollar will fall as will all the major US indices.
Fundamental Considerations: The USD has Lost its Magic
On the basis of a fundamental currency model, the CHF is still undervalued by around 20 %.The short-term goal during the coming two years is around 1.25 to 1.30 US dollars to the EUR. The flow of capital between the Eurozone and the USA for investments such as equities, corporate bonds, government bonds and money-market securities will be reversed in the direction of Europe. It is believed that the projected relative development of fundamental evaluation factors - including growth potential, equity-market analysis, levels of return, inflation potential and budget deficits - is uniformly in favour of the old continent.
Classic exchange-rate theories involving purchase-power parity and interest-rate parity also indicate a 15 to 20 percent upward valuation of the EUR. Many players in the market still give these theories a great deal of credence.
The high levels of the US current account deficit during the past 10 years have entailed a large number of foreign central banks piling up big US dollar reserves. Asian central banks could trigger a severe currency crisis if they substantially reduced dollar positions and purchased EUR with a view to diversifying their currency risks. The German Bundesbank is also still managing big US dollar reserves, a major proportion of which is likely to be sold during the next few years, because they have become largely superfluous since currency reserves have been transferred to the European Central Bank. The current situation recalls the position at the end of the Bretton Woods System in 1973 when the world was also swamped with dollars due to the US trade deficit, and the central banks finally resorted to gold in order to spread currency risks.
The key fundamental factors have been indicating a drastic devaluation of the American currency for years. However, for some months now investors have also been receiving clear signals based on chart data indicating that the dominance of the American dollar is now history. Taking a perspective of a few weeks, the US dollar could win back some ground, but long-term analyses show charts tracing out clear top formations for the Greenback." -Peter Zihlmann March 7, 2003
mikal
(03/06/2003; 07:22:23 MDT - Msg ID: 99004)
@Boilermaker
Re: INO gold quote
I thought there must be a system to it. Better than "reading between the lines" what isn't there.
Thank you.
mikal
(03/06/2003; 07:57:30 MDT - Msg ID: 99005)
"Here it is" shell game soon to lose appeal
http://www.etherzone.com/2003/henr030603.shtmlSNOW JOB
THERE'S PLENTY OF MONEY
By: Ed Henry -Excerpt:
"On Tuesday, March 4, Reuters News and Financial Intelligence reported that U.S. Secretary of the Treasury John "Snow faced intense questioning from Democrats who said the Bush administration has produced no cost estimates for prosecuting a war, nor for a possible occupation afterward, and asked where the budget surpluses had gone."
It may be impossible to estimate what a war with Iraq is going to cost, but it definitely is not true that we couldn't know exactly what it has cost us so far.
With over 250,000 troops in the area, the National Guard pressed into service, six aircraft carriers and other ships deployed to the area, maneuvers in Kuwait, bombings in the Northern and Southern "no fly" zones and beyond, Tommy Frank and his computers in Qatar, and bribes paid to build some sort of coalition of the willing -- we ought to have some cost estimates to date.
The only thing we citizens know for certain is that in the last five quarters the national debt has increased $638.7 billion. That's not chicken feed folks. How much of this increased borrowing was caused by Iraq? Nobody asks for an accounting here.
Neither did any of the penetrating news watchdogs ask the Secretary how he has been managing to finance a government that has been bumping its head on the national debt ceiling for more than a week now, completely unable to borrow at the rate of the two billion per day to which it has become accustomed.
As far as surpluses are concerned, they're still there as brilliant as ever. The government just conveniently stopped reporting the books in terms of the "Unified Budget." Instead, they now use "over budget" accounting.
In fiscal 2000 and 2001, entitlements were the major factor in surpluses and last year, fiscal 2002, they still accounted for a surplus of $149 billion with Social Security leading the pack at $89 billion despite fewer people working. These elements are part of the planned budget so they cannot possibly show up in "over budget" accounting. Ask Ken May of Enron about that.
Pressed further, the new Secretary of the Treasury fell back on the old Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rebuttal saying that; "deficits of that size ($307 billion this year and $304 billion predicted in fiscal 2004) diminishing in later years would not be harm to an economy worth $10 trillion and instead would help create jobs and foster investment."
Let's take a closer look at this GDP crappola.
Gross Domestic Product is something the crafty often bring out of the woodwork to explain away our horrendous national debt. With a GDP of $10 trillion a year, we can certainly afford a debt of $6.4 trillion, 64 percent of a year's gross sales.
The implication is that we could easily pay off the national debt if we all sent all of our earnings to the government for 64 percent of the year.
Don't laugh. This is the argument they use."
Socrates964
(03/06/2003; 10:06:05 MDT - Msg ID: 99006)
Technical on POG
Looks like we could be starting to retrace the Jan downmove - looking for relatively swift move to 0.618 level around 370 to complete pattern - then some backing and filling in 360s and then on to glory!

Fingers crossed!
Zhisheng
(03/06/2003; 10:08:14 MDT - Msg ID: 99007)
Struggle to freeze time.
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1There is quite a battle over the $355.50 (spot) line this morning, a ceiling which has held now for the better part of a month.

It appears that some are becoming impatient for the war decision to be made public.
Gandalf the White
(03/06/2003; 11:27:40 MDT - Msg ID: 99008)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlPlease see the latest UP-DATE at the LINK above !

QUEST -- The APRIL 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3J) SETTLEMENT Price on Thursday March 13, 2003: THE ENTRY DEADLINE is HIGH NOON Denver time on Tuesday 3/11/03 !!!!!!

ADDITIONAL QUEST -- AN ESSAY CONTEST IN ANSWERING (in more than 30 words) ....

"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . . . . . . . . . . . . ."

Prizes are to be awarded for each of the two QUESTS of this CONTEST !! (BUT, one need not enter the Essay Contest portion, if they do not want to "confess", and only state a "why" statement for their Prognostication.)

===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a "Discussion Statement" !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) APRIL 2003 Gold Contract (GC3J) on the date of Thursday, the 13th of March, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Tuesday, March 11th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY to accompany the Price prognostication,--- EITHER
1) A Statement of why you projected that price --- OR
2) enter the ESSAY Contest with an Answer completion of the confession ---

"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . . . . . . . . . . . . ."

===
THE PRIZES !!

The POG CONTEST rules are set forth below and the WINNING PRIZE will be a GOLDEN "Napoleon the First" (Bonaparte himself) French 20 Franc piece, with 0.1867 ounces of Gold, (and carried at many battles by --guess who), worth about $100. The two "Runners-up's" will each get an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(Rich, Did you see that?)

The "best, most clever, and most devastating" short ESSAY statement attached to the POG Prognostication, wins a The Netherlands GOLDEN "King" (King Willem) 10 Guilder gold coin containing 0.1947 ounces of GOLD, while the "Runner- up" gets an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(OK Rich, Did you see that?)
===
LET the CONTEST continue !
<;-)
Zhisheng
(03/06/2003; 11:31:02 MDT - Msg ID: 99009)
The barrier has been pierced and,
as in days of yore,Up Into the Close!
Gandalf the White
(03/06/2003; 12:10:53 MDT - Msg ID: 99010)
UP-DATE on the "KING of the HILL" status in the POG CONTEST !!
Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
UP-DATE on POG CONTEST "KING of the HILL" status ! <;-)
<<<< SNIP >>>>
**** $360.8 **** VanRip (03/03/03; 19:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98814)
**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)
**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)
**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

---
Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
2/28/03 GC3J HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 OI = 105,993
3/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 OI = 104,153
3/04/03 GC3J HIGH = $354.9 low = $349.5 Settlement = $353.3 Change +$4.0 OI = 105,279
3/05/03 GC3J HIGH = $358.8 low = $352.3 Settlement = $353.2 Change -$0.1 OI = 106,349
3/06/03 GC3J HIGH = $357.4 low = $352.6 Settlement = $356.9 Change +$3.7 OI = ?

===
Contest FIRST DAY, 2/28, Sir Kevin$ was "King of the Hill"
Contest SECOND DAY, 3/3, Sir Kevin$ was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!
Contest THIRD DAY, 3/4, Sir Zelts was "King of the Hill" !!!
Contest FOURTH DAY, 3/5, Sir Zelts was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!!!
Contest FIFTH DAY, 3/6, Sir Liberty Head is NOW "King of the Hill" !!!!!

===
ABOUT FIVE days remain to Enter the CONTESTS.
Put on your thinking HAT and prepare to make your PROGNOSTICATIONS soon !
<;-)

Gandalf the White
(03/06/2003; 12:15:35 MDT - Msg ID: 99011)
ATTENTION all you LURKERS and Newbies !! --- COME ON IN !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlJoin the FUN and become "wealthy" at the same time !! <;-)
===
Just enter either or BOTH Portions of the new CONTEST, and WIN "FREE" Gold and/or Silver !!! To enter, you must have a Free "POSTING PASSWORD". BUT, IF you do not now have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD) --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK above ! He makes it easy and painless too. There WILL be FREE GOLD and Silver given away for the BEST ESSAY and most accurate Price Of Gold (POG) Prognostications.
<;-)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/06/2003; 12:21:06 MDT - Msg ID: 99012)
Why should YOU buy gold? Because no one ELSE will do it for you. We can help.
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

sovereigns
Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial asset which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

TownCrier
(03/06/2003; 12:30:59 MDT - Msg ID: 99013)
Federal Reserve pumps money supply, adds $9.25 billion to bank reserves
While the market in fed funds was trading on target at 1.25%, the Fed trading desk entered the open market today to add $4 billion with 28-day repurchase agreements and $5.25 billion through overnights.

Diversify with gold because there is no meaningful limit to this process of money creation.

R.
pinetree
(03/06/2003; 12:31:37 MDT - Msg ID: 99014)
Belgian....
Your wisdom is certainly missed....especially now in this world flooded in turmoil. Return soon...............
TownCrier
(03/06/2003; 12:42:35 MDT - Msg ID: 99015)
Swiss National Bank slashes own rates in surprise move to weaken franc
http://keyinvest.ubswarburg.com/ki/ch/en/newsbody.ki?newsid=787565ZURICH, March 6 (Reuters) - Swiss National Bank Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth cited ... Switzerland's weak economic outlook for a surprise cut in interest rates.

The central bank cut the key short-term money market
interest rate target range by 0.5 percentage points to 0.0-0.75 percent and said it would target the lower end of the band, or effectively 0.25 percent.

While the rate cut boosted the euro against the franc, the Swiss currency remains around all-time highs against the currency of its major trading partner and around four-year highs against the U.S. dollar.

----(see url)------

With official action like that to weaken is national currency, echoed by the Japanese selling yen in yet another example, savers should learn they are ultimately better off choosing physical gold to preserve purchasing power over any nation's unit of money.

R
RILEY
(03/06/2003; 13:11:19 MDT - Msg ID: 99016)
contest
****354.7****

"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tons of Portugal gold, and I did it because in a few years I hope to be retiring. The 401K money I had in my account went down the flusher so I need a solid investment to count on. The 30 tons of Portugal gold should just about cover the rising medical cost of us elderly floozies and since I intend to outlive my husband, the money will be needed to cover the rising cost of the plastic surgeries, lipo suctions and lenghty cruises to warm wonderful places. I think if I only live to be 83 1/2 the thirty tons will just about cover the lifestyle I intend to enjoy. Yes, I bought the gold and I'm glad and I would do it again. (Just don't tell my husband)
Operative
(03/06/2003; 13:19:13 MDT - Msg ID: 99017)
@ RILEY
Leave it to a woman to find the great bargins in the world!

"Yes, I bought the gold and I'm glad and I would do
it again. (Just don't tell my husband) "

P.S.) If those retirement plans ever include a boat I think I could fall in love all over again.

Good luck with the contest, and thanks for the smile today.
TownCrier
(03/06/2003; 13:20:38 MDT - Msg ID: 99018)
European Central Bank cuts key rates by 0.25 percent
http://www.ecb.int/key/03/sp030306.htmExcerpt of statement by Willem F. Duisenberg, President of ECB:
"We have comprehensively reviewed monetary, financial and economic developments today. We concluded that the outlook for price stability over the medium term has improved in recent months, owing in particular to the subdued pace of economic growth and the appreciation of the exchange rate of the euro. As a result, the Governing Council has decided to lower the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points."

The main refinancing rate now stands at 2.50%.

The Bank of England cut their own rates in a surprise move by 0.25 percent last month, yesterday Norway cut theirs by .50 percent.

Ansering a question why the rate was cut by 25 (instead of 50) basis points at this time, Mr. Duisenberg said:

"We are not in a position to precisely ascertain what the future will bring. Especially the geopolitical uncertainties are such and so large that it is simply impossible to make a precise judgement about what monetary policy would do and will do. ...the Governing Council remains alert and stands ready to act decisively and in a timely manner, but the consequences of a war can go in many directions. So can the decisions of the Governing Council."

Further...

Question:
"Has the effective or mere threat of war already had some sort of impact on the euro zone economy that you could determine?"

Duisenberg:
"It is our impression that the by now rather prolonged threat of war has already undermined confidence to such an extent that it has already had, or at least is having, a dampening effect on consumer demand."

Question:
"And my second question is, you said in your statement that the ECB is alert and ready and I wonder whether if that is the reason why you don't have the word "appropriate" in your statement?"

Duisenberg:
"Well, if we use the word "appropriate" we expect it to remain valid for a considerable period of time. By now the uncertainties are so great and the developments may come so fast. And we are not even certain of what direction the actual development will take. So that is the reason why we deliberately avoided the word "appropriate" because that would give a sort of consolidation idea which we simply don't have."

---------------

Further into the Q & A session, Mr. Duisenberg in an unrelated context touches on a key point that sets the new European banking paradigm apart from the U.S. counterpart -- "Under the Treaty the central banks are forbidden to finance governments, to give credit to governments."

R.
Arcticfox
(03/06/2003; 13:29:51 MDT - Msg ID: 99019)
IRAQ BLOWS UP ABOUT 2,500 OIL OILFIELDS
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=3080125☆trow=1&find=iraq2003-03-06 11:32 * IRAN * IRAQ * OILFIELDS * ELIMINATION *

IRAQ BLOWS UP ABOUT 2,500 OIL OILFIELDS

TEHRAN, March 6, 2003. /from RIA Novosti correspondent Nikolai Terekhov/. - Iraq has dropped bombs hitting 2,500 oil fields that cover a vast area.

According to the IRNA agency, the bombing near Sharjeh resulted in the explosion of an oil refinery near Kirkuk.

Some oil-bearing wells were mined with antitank mines.

The Iraqi Army units are ditching around near Baghdad and Kirkuk round the clock to resist the US Army.

Black Blade
(03/06/2003; 13:32:08 MDT - Msg ID: 99020)
U.S. Considers Withdrawing Troops from South Korea
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=2338625
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said on Thursday the stationing of U.S. troops near the border with North Korea has become intrusive to South Korea, and said forces could be moved southward or out of South Korea altogether.

Black Blade: South Koreans have been protesting the presence of US troops and express an interest in "reunification" with North Korea. Perhaps the US should leave South Korea and as North Korea has a million man army those hopes of "reunification" just may become a reality. Hmmm...


Old Asian curse: "Be careful what you wish for, you just may get it"
Arcticfox
(03/06/2003; 13:32:23 MDT - Msg ID: 99021)
Thousands of Russians volunteer to defend Iraq
http:// english.pravda.ru/main/2003/03/06/44067.html
00:47 2003-03-06

Thousands of Russians volunteer to defend Iraq

Around ten thousand Russian citizens have applied for entry visas into Iraq to defend this country against the planned aggression by the warmongering USA and UK, according to the Iraqi Embassy in Moscow.

Iraqi Ambassador to Moscow, Abbas Khalaf, declared last week that the Embassy had received around 3,500 requests, a number which has multiplied in the last few days, according to sources in the same Embassy.

The requests come from young males, some with combat experience, who describe themselves as "volunteers who are willing to defend Iraq against the illegal armed aggression of the USA and the United Kingdom, two countries which continue to follow a belligerent stance on crisis management, wholly outside the generally accepted concepts of a New World Order based upon multilateralist approaches to problem solving, based upon the United Nations Organisation, a position championed by president Putin's Russian Federation.

For those who present an adequate reason for travelling to Iraq, the Embassy provides a visa and transportation, free of charge.

Timofei BYELO
PRAVDA.Ru


The Hoople
(03/06/2003; 13:32:35 MDT - Msg ID: 99022)
A few thoughts about Mr. Market...
As the daily water torture of equities, aka CNBC drivels on a few thoughts ocurred to me of reasons that seem to be contributing to equity decline. While many other reasons exist beyond these to buy gold/sell equities they still bear considering.

* As unemployment grows more people will defend a mortgage at any cost. The home is the last bit of appreciated (for now) equity. Liquidating funds is the last hope.

* Divorce rates are up 9% according to recent studies. Divorces frequently require liquidating funds to settle estates.

*Many boomers are facing college tuition costs for children that are going up by staggering amounts. With the second mortgage option frequently gone stock liquidation might again be the only choice to keep junior in school.

* Employers that are no longer willing or able to put matching 401 money into employees accounts. Again with unemployment growing both the employee and employer amount of contribution vanishes.

* Every dollar put into the stock market since 1997 (basis S-P) is a loser. Since this is when the majority of suckers got drawn in they never saw ANY stock market gain. Quite the contrary, they got swindled. Angry and sullen, they will never return to buy ANY dip ever again.

Going long equities is just as insane as shorting gold. Both
have bottomless pits to be wrong. The only logical conclusion of doing either is that they are being "managed" by people desperately defending a wrong side position. We all know by now the usual suspects. The outcome is becoming more apparent each day.

Black Blade
(03/06/2003; 13:41:13 MDT - Msg ID: 99023)
Wild Markets and Wild Rumors

The markets were roiled today as rumors abounded with claims that Iraq began to blow up oil wells and that Osama Bin Laden was captured (probably from the DEBKA misinformation/tabloid site). The US has denied the rumors but on such a slow day when investors failed to show up on Wall Street traders needed something to fill their time. This morning Saudi Arabian officials admitted that they had reached their "Hubbert Peak" production and are only producing oil at 9.2 million bbl/day after having reached 10.5 million bbl/day decade ago. NatGas storage is on the fast track to critically low levels and next winter depletion is almost certain as drill rig activity remains too low and few plans to catch up. US economic news is very grim as the economy wallows in a deepening recession and unemployment rises. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade


Black Blade
(03/06/2003; 13:49:56 MDT - Msg ID: 99024)
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
http://highlandenergy.com/agachart.htm
Storage Highlights:

Working gas in storage was 838 Bcf as of Friday, February 28, 2003, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 176 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 981 Bcf less than last year at this time and 602 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,440 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 394 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 96 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 209 Bcf below the 5-year average of 446 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 54 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 2 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 26 Bcf. At 838 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.


Black Blade: One ugly chart (see link). An energy crisis of epic proportions is brewing as NatGas supply depletes. Few companies have plans to increase drilling activity citing land access issues, lack of infrastructure (pipelines and pipeline capacity), permitting delays, etc. Next winter is going to be a disaster -- forget about "economic recovery".

ElGordo
(03/06/2003; 13:51:39 MDT - Msg ID: 99025)
"Cloud" hangs over investment banking sector
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmeX8xYlT2d1bmxlThe executives refused to comply with the subpoena and are trying to delay their testimony until they can coordinate other requests for evidence stemming from investor lawsuits, according to Neal Batson, the lawyer named by the U.S. Justice Department to investigate Enron's collapse. Batson has asked a federal bankruptcy judge to force the executives to appear as witnesses or face contempt-of-court charges. The bank says it is cooperating with Batson.

Credit Suisse First Boston, the investment-banking unit of Switzerland's No. 2 bank, faces an array of lawsuits claiming it issued biased stock research, sought kickbacks for shares of new stock and defrauded Enron investors, and set aside $450 million as a liability reserve last week. Its top technology investment banker, Frank Quattrone, quit two days ago amid charges of obstruction of justice.

``There's a legal cloud hanging over this industry and Credit Suisse,'' said Heinrich-Horst Wiemer, an analyst at Bank Sal. Oppenheimer Jr. & Cie., who has a ``neutral'' rating on Credit Suisse Group. ``This is one more ingredient.''

Credit Suisse said it is trying to coordinate the appearance of its subpoenaed executives with requests for similar testimony from lawyers for Enron investors. Batson told the bank that he would also subpoena individuals from seven other unnamed investment banks, said bank spokesman John Gallagher.

Under co-chief executives John Mack and Oswald Gruebel, Credit Suisse Group had a fourth-quarter loss of $811 million.
______
Lets all hope JPM gets a subpoena for Mahonia fraud.
7 other investment banks to get called! This could be
very entertaining.
ElGordo
(03/06/2003; 13:59:01 MDT - Msg ID: 99026)
No inflation? NY bus & subway fares jump 25%
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/US/ap20030306_1659.htmlThe Metropolitan Transportation Authority board voted Thursday to boost bus and subway fares by 50 cents to $2, the first increase since November 1995.

The fare hike, which will affect more than 7 million daily riders in New York City, would not go into effect until May at the earliest. The increase insured no service cuts on mass transit.

The decision on the increase came after months of dire warnings over the agency's financial state. The MTA had said the changes were needed to combat a deficit estimated to be about $952 million over the next two years.

That deficit estimate has changed a few times in the last several months, reaching as high as $2.8 billion at the end of last year before it was revised downward.
ElGordo
(03/06/2003; 14:46:48 MDT - Msg ID: 99027)
Companies now working for retirees instead of shareholders
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/065/business/Fidelity_cuts_pension_forecast+.shtml''You've had this double whammy hit defined-benefit plans,'' observed Raj Sharma, a senior vice president at Merrill Lynch & Co. in Boston. ''Companies have to take money out of their corporate cash and basically plow it into the pension plan, so the company ends up, in a strange way, working for their retirees instead of for their shareholders.''

During the boom, from 1996 to 1999, the average pension fund soared from being 85 percent funded to being overfunded, at 131 percent, according to Towers Perrin, a benefits consultancy. But by the end of last year, funding levels had slumped to 80 percent, the lowest since 1993. Fidelity is 47 percent funded; a year ago, it had 57 percent of the money on hand to meet its future obligations.

A plan that invests 40 percent in bonds and 60 percent in equities, Towers Perrin said, has seen its funding level drop 20 percent in the past year and a total of 39 percent through the three-year bear market. That's the worst decline since the 1972-1974 period, when funding levels fell by 14 percent, Towers Perrin said.

The dramatic drop in the markets has many companies mulling whether to cut pension benefits, curb them for new hires, or find other schemes to lower their retirement liability.
__________
If companies hire new workers just think of the added pension
problems. Better not to hire right now. In future new workers
might get a lot less in pension benefits. Although the new
workers might have to pay much higher taxes for soc sec
program.
---
NY fare increase is more like 30% not 25%
Belgian
(03/06/2003; 14:47:08 MDT - Msg ID: 99028)
@ Pinetree @ Topaz
Nothing has changed, gentlemen. Nothing !
The dollar-euro-gold-arabian oil, relationships, do evolve according to plans, laid out for already quite some time now. Geopolitical events are confirming the building of the 2 different (leading) currency-blocks (euro-dollar). Old Europ + Russia + China, do align with a higher profile around common causes (monetary and economical and strategical).

With the next ECB-banker, being a Frenchman, we will most probably witness a more "passionate" euro-gold-management (Gold-Commitments).
A harsher competitive political process of taking the world off the *old* dollar standard by wearing out the dollar's mechanics (repeat : wearing out). A long term political move that could possibly be hastened by the comming ME events.

The dollar >>> euro, *Transition* is taking place !

Currency management during this transition must happen in function of the reigning economic/geopolitical, realities.
UK/Turkey and/or other states, chosing their dollar or euro-camp.

Euro-management keeps on working on the change of the dollar-based, gold-system, through the confusing (misleading) Gold-reserve-Commitments, still (mis)percepted as naked "sales", through dollar spectacles.

The dollar >>> euro, transition-maneuver, must proceed through dollar-inflation >>> price-inflation ! Not the usual inflation, but...(Weimarish)(war) hyperinflation.
Note that POO is already more than 20 days out of the 22$-28$ zone ! The final costs of the ME-war, will be enormous and paid for with Bernanke's US-dollars. This (euro)-forced $-printing inflation is currently happening and is another main precursor for a much lower dollar exchange rate. Postponing the logical price-inflation, consequences, is a master move. Dollar-inflation *must* reach such high level that it can't be hedged (covered) with nothing anymore.
Or in other words...how does one destroys a paper-gold-derivative-hedge !?

The above is simply the explanatory theory behind the present dollar/euro-exchange rate moves (management) in conjunction with POG-behavior. Point is that one currency faction wants to "discredit" the paper-gold-dollar-system, in its hedging function and encourage dollar-inflation for the purpose of future hyper-price-inflation. This is happening NOW...full throttle, thanks to the geopolitical events !

The "creation" of dollar-reserves accelerates with each step forward of the euro ! Derivative protection for the increasing amount of new dollars, has its limits. The dollar's actions are efforts to push those limits further away. In the mean time...physical gold flows to the most pertinent oil players (Iran).

The (infidel) Eastern European states (Balkan-2005 EMU-candidates) will soon experience what it means to have an Euroland and allies that functions with the euro as a local ***reserve*** !

A * Political Game* is being played, as to limit goldprices of getting too high...soon, there will be a goldprice, without a range. Gold, was and still is "THE" political metal par excellence. It's present price-behavior, against the ongoing realities, is circumstantial evidence, of highest reliability.
Carl H
(03/06/2003; 17:43:56 MDT - Msg ID: 99029)
@ Black Blade: M.E. Hubbert Peak
This morning Saudi Arabian officials admitted that they had reached their "Hubbert Peak" production and are only producing oil at 9.2 million bbl/day after having reached 10.5 million bbl/day decade ago

Black Blade, is this real? If memory serves me, Deffeyes and the author of the large blue-grey paperback on the same topic (name escapes me) both said the M.E. peak was a few years off yet. If this is real, it's importance cannot be underestimated.



Waverider
(03/06/2003; 18:06:21 MDT - Msg ID: 99030)
DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html"The energy situation is really big news and appears to be largely ignored by the media..." follow the link....
steady
(03/06/2003; 18:47:32 MDT - Msg ID: 99031)
korea/dollars/euroes/GOLD
blackblade what currency will a unifiyed (if it ever happens) korea use? the n.koreans do not use the federal reserve notes. This doesnt probably have much effect on demand for dollars but a unified peninsula not using a dollar could have an impact on the value of the dollar.should be interesting to watch this develope!
sector
(03/06/2003; 21:03:26 MDT - Msg ID: 99032)
WAGE REVOLUTION / Domestic jobs go as firms seek cheap labor in China
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030307wo11.htmYomiuri Shimbun

This is the last installment in a three-part series focusing on the spring labor offensive (shunto) and changes in the wage system.

In September, Sankyo Seiki Mfg. Co. closed its video camera motor manufacturing plant in Iida, Nagano Prefecture.

The plant was ideally located for a precision instrument manufacturer at the foot of the Kiso mountain range, an area known for its fresh air.

But these days the cool alpine air blows through an empty factory. One of the production lines was moved to another plant operated by the firm's Chinese subsidiary in Guandong Province and 200 workers were transferred to other domestic plants of the firm and affiliated companies. Some employees opted to leave the company under an early retirement option.

This kind of story is now common throughout the country.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++

China's influence isn't just over the US. It has caused a warping of geopolitical structures and forced the current drastic currency rebalancing process. The Euro shoots to 1.1 and is headed towards 1.4 by the end of the year while the dollar [as measured by the Major Currency Dollar Index] is headed towards 72.

Think of that delta move in terms of aircraft sales. A Boeing 747 if purchased by European firms will cost 50% less at year's end. The Airbus will cost 50% more if purchased by US firms.

Once cheap Chinese goods will cost 23% more. Oil is a cat's toy.

Our major trading partner, Japan, just cannot survive by lowering it's yen without triggering a stampede to gold. The Greenspan policy of continued policy failure denial because he fears loss of face is drawing many critics these days.

The Chinese are loath to cooperate and raise the Yuan thereby making their goods more expensive and less competitive. They like things as they are.

All this currency action feeds gold and makes it stronger.

Nesbit Burns "Expert" gold analysts call for $320 to $350 gold at year's end.
A blind donkey could tell you that with its link to currencies, gold cannot be anywhere near $350 by the end of the year.

The huge bullion bank set-up has arrived at the checkmate end-game...just a few more moves and the shares will finally realize they've been had. Shorts will turn to longs and never turn back.

Read here... buy here.
Ananse
(03/06/2003; 21:16:09 MDT - Msg ID: 99033)
***$399.00***
I confess. I bought the 30 tonnes of Portuguese gold. I plan to use it to buy up as much of the "New American Frontier" (frontier defined as land with a population of fewer than 6 people / square mile). I have no desire to become a "land baroness," but if Depression II hits, there will be people in need of places to go where they can do a bit of homesteading -- build stawbale houses and raise food. I think it will be important to help keep folks going. And if Depression II doesn't hit, I will be a land baroness.

Oh mighty and puissant Wizard, is it within your powers to move my guess up to the next available spot should the one I have chosen be taken? I am currently on a recruiting / marketing trip in Asia and have limited opportunity to check in at the Forum. Thank you.
Ananse
(03/06/2003; 21:19:23 MDT - Msg ID: 99034)
DMZ Heating Up
Garnered from a conversation at breakfast this morning: The DMZ has apparently been heating up quite a bit. However, it isn't being mentioned in the media. Well, I'm in Seoul now so maybe I'll hear something else interesting.

Got gold?
DummyANI
(03/06/2003; 21:21:36 MDT - Msg ID: 99035)
@Zhisheng (03/05/03; 09:18:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98954)
http://quote.yahoo.co.jp/q?s=8301.q&d=ay Above link is the stock chart of BOJ (Bank of Japan) for the last ten years between 1993 to 2003. At the upper section, a blue line is the price of BOJ. The top price of BOJ was 755,000 Yen/share at Dec. 08, 1988. The secular bear trend has been started in 1988, until 2003 and into further more futures. I select the price of BOJ as the index of Yen value.
Because the curve of BOJ is monotonously decline, and this decline precisely represents the true value of Yen. Forex Yen is manipulated by CBs, and Forex Yen has been very twisted.
Weimar Mark suffered from the astronomical reparations, but present Japanese Yen has no reparations. So that the time was very severe to Weimar republic, and the decline speed of BOJ is very loose, but the devaluation of BOJ proceeds steady.
At first, Japanese stock market lost more than $4 trillion USD in 1990s.
Next, by the housing bubble, Japanese lost more than $ 10 trillion USD, and this is the fundamental problems in Japanese banking-system. Further, more than 670 trillion Yen Government-bond (equivalent to $5.7 USD) has already been issued, and BOJ bought more than 86 trillion Yen-Government-bond. Gov. bond-share by BOJ is more than 12.8 percent.
According to the following list, the value of Yen(BOJ) has been passed through the instability stage (Phillips In Table 5), and passing through the end-half of disaster stage (Phillips in Table 6). A new desperation stage is creeping in the face of the stock price.

Date Marks to the pound normalized-coeff Date price of BOJ share normalized-oeff.
1920 Dec 258M/P 100(percent) BOJ 1988.Dec.08 755,000Yen 100(percent)
1921 Jan 243M/P 106.17(per) BOJ 1991 Dec 276,000Yen 36.5(per)
1921 Feb 237M/P 108.86(per) BOJ 1992 Nov 191,000Yen 25.3(per)
1921 Mar 244M/P 105.74(per) BOJ 1993 Apr 300,000Yen 39.7(per)
1921 Apr 249M/P 103.61(per) BOJ 1993 Nov 210,000Yen 27.8(per)
1921 May 247M/P 104.45(per) BOJ 1994 Apr 230,000Yen 30.5(per)
1921 Jun 261M/P 098.85(per) BOJ 1994 Nov 170,000Yen 22.5(per)
1921 Jul 278M/P 092.81(per) BOJ 1995 Jul 150,000Yen 19.9(per)
1921 Aug 307M/P 084.04(per) BOJ 1996 Apr 195,000Yen 25.8(per)
1921 Sep 390M/P 066.15(per) BOJ 1996 Sep 160,000Yen 21.2(per)
1921 Oct 582M/P 44.33(per) BOJ 1997 Apr 135,000Yen 17.9(per)
1921 Nov 1,041M/P 24.78(per) BOJ 1997 Nov 100,000Yen 13.2(per)
1921 Dec 794M/P 32.49(per) BOJ 1998 Apr 117,000Yen 15.5(per)
1922 Jan 811M/P 31.81(per) BOJ 1998 Nov 96,000Yen 12.7(per)
1922 Feb 907M/P 28.45(per) BOJ 1999 Apr 125,000Yen 16.5(per)
1922 Mar 1,246M/P 20.71(per) BOJ 1999 Nov 115,000Yen 15.2(per)
1922 Apr 1,285M/P 20.08(per) BOJ 2000 Apr 90,000Yen 11.9(per)
1922 May 1,294M/P 19.94(per) BOJ 2000 Nov 67,000Yen 8.87(per)
1922 Jun 1,410M/P 18.30(per) BOJ 2001 Apr 75,000Yen 9.93(per)
1922 Jul 2,200M/P 11.73(per) BOJ 2001 Nov 58,100Yen 7.70(per)
1922 Aug 5,074M/P 05.08(per) BOJ 2002 Apr 72,500Yen 9.6(per)
1922 Sep 6,502M/P 03.97(per) BOJ 2002 Jul 61,000Yen 8.08(per)
1922 Oct 14,146M/P 01.824(per) BOJ 2002 Nov 50,300Yen 6.66(per)
1922 Nov 32.146M/P 00.8026(per) BOJ 2003 Jan 50,000Yen 6.62(per)
1922 Dec 34,858M/P 00.7401(per) BOJ 2003 Feb 46,000Yen 6.09(per)
1923 Jan 83,190M/P 00.3101(per) BOJ
1923 Feb 130,750M/P 00.1973(per) BOJ
1923 Mar 99,526M/P 00.2592(per) BOJ
Buy a gold, sell a yen.
D-Ani
mikal
(03/06/2003; 21:22:14 MDT - Msg ID: 99036)
"The older kind of method I'm sure is obsolete..."
http://www.reuters.comFed's Gramlich: Iraq Impact 'Imponderable'
By Kevin Krolicki -March 6, 2003
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) -Excerpt: "Federal Reserve Board Governor Edward Gramlich said on Thursday that the impact of a war with Iraq on the U.S. economy was impossible to forecast, calling it a "big imponderable."
While standard economic theory has held that war is generally stimulative, that does not account for a conflict that could drive oil prices higher, shake investor confidence or be carried out in the absence of a major surge in wartime production, Gramlich told a group of business economists in Los Angeles.
"I think the state of play now is that nobody is quite sure whether a war in general or a particular kind of war that you can imagine would be positive for aggregate demand or not," Gramlich said in response to a question. "I think that at this point is a big imponderable. The older kind of reasoning I'm sure is obsolete ... but whether it is totally dead wrong is another question.""
Black Blade
(03/06/2003; 21:22:40 MDT - Msg ID: 99037)
Re: Carl H

This morning Saudi officials said that they cannot produce anymore. Actually they probably could but at some point over production could damage a reservoir so that ultimate maximum production may never be achieved. That is what happened to much of Russian and former Soviet states during the Soviet era. The Saudis have not had any major "Super Giant" discoveries for several decades and they are very cagey about giving any information about production. About 10 years ago the Saudis produced 10.5 million bbl/day at full capacity and today they admit that production has fallen to 9.2 million bbl/day at full capacity. Apparently some reservoirs are in decline and reserves have not been replaced with enough production to make up the difference. This would not be all that surprising as they are also notorious quota cheaters. How much more production capacity do the Saudis have at higher costs? No one but the Saudis know, however, today's admission and recommendation that the world tap their strategic petroleum reserves should be a booming wake up call to governments, the petroleum markets and the oil industry. But we may never really know the whole story here. Some here may remember that I said OPEC was producing at or near capacity even as OPEC was spinning the story that they would "open the spiggots" in case of war. I for one was very skeptical.

Most of their (Saudi) production comes from reservoirs that are over 60 years old. These reservoirs are huge and lifting costs are very cheap (about $2.bbl). That's not to say that other producers on the peninsula have reached peak production. Iraq for example has a lot of virgin ground that may hold potential for increased production. That's why France, Germany, Russia, and China are opposed to war because they have supported Saddam Hussein's terror over the Iraqi people with $billions in loans and for oil concessions. They know that a new government may not look favorably on repaying the loans or the land concessions but would more likely be more favorable to US, UK, Spanish, and Italian interests and those that help them remove Saddam. The opposition to war has absolutely nothing to do with peace and diplomacy but for access to a large source of "cheap oil". The very survival of each player's economy depends on it. Some have aligned themselves with Saddam and others against Saddam. The stakes are obvious.

- Black Blade
mikal
(03/06/2003; 21:26:10 MDT - Msg ID: 99038)
Correction
Correct subject line below: "The older kind of REASONING I'm sure is obsolete..."
Maybe a reporter will take this story and run with it: "Fed governor sees no war stimulus." OOPS!
Black Blade
(03/06/2003; 21:34:56 MDT - Msg ID: 99039)
Re: Steady

Somehow I don't think currency is an issue with the North Korean ruler. He is supposedly an old line Stalinist. He takes good care of his friends and military at the expense of his subjects. The people are starving and worked to death while he reportedly has his large porn collection and subjects for his personal enjoyment and benefit. Should the North take over the South he would treat the South Koreans the same way as those in the north and claim anything of value as his own personal property and anything else left over going to his cronies and military. But apparently many in the South want that kind of government. I figure good enough, let them go it alone and deal with it themselves if that's what they want -- it's their country. They obviously don't want our troops there to keep the peace. It sure beats me.

- Black Blade
ElGordo
(03/06/2003; 22:11:35 MDT - Msg ID: 99040)
Chavez will not do business with enemies of the state
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=2340646snip:

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Thursday lifted force majeure on his country's oil exports after an opposition strike and announced a fiercely nationalistic oil strategy that would shut out "enemies of the nation."
-------
Former paratrooper Chavez said the government would revise all of PDVSA's operations, including all of its contracts and investments, to forge a new-look nationalist oil strategy that would seek to put the interests of the country first.

He made clear that private firms which had supported the crippling two-month opposition strike would be not be allowed to participate in the oil industry in the future.

"We cannot continue playing the innocent and keep on handing over strategic areas to enemies of the country," the populist president said.

He singled out a U.S.-controlled technology company, Intesa -- 60 percent owned by Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) -- which he had previously accused of joining in sabotage of PDVSA's central computer network.

Black Blade
(03/06/2003; 22:12:59 MDT - Msg ID: 99041)
SEC Faults Pension Reporting, Wants More 'Reality'
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmdGaRTTU0VDIEZh
Snippit:

Washington, March 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission officials say they're concerned that companies are obscuring their pension losses in federal filings and giving investors incomplete information. ``There was a general lack of informative transparent disclosure,'' says Carol Stacey, chief accountant of the SEC's division of corporation finance. She says she reviewed more then 500 annual reports for 2001 with her staff. ``We strongly encourage companies to remedy this in future filings.'' Companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost more than $200 billion in the past two years in pension investments without clearly disclosing those losses in SEC filings, according to studies by investment banks Credit Suisse First Boston and UBS Warburg LLC. Over the past five months, 12 companies, including General Motors Corp. and International Business Machines Corp., said they had reduced shareholder equity by $40 billion to account for pension deficits.

Black Blade: I touched on this before. There are going to be some huge losses this year as companies struggle to fund pension plans and many won't be able to. Business is currently lobbying Congress to change the law to let them off the hook at the expense of their employees. "Ugly"

ProInvidia
(03/06/2003; 22:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 99042)
Finally broke the ice and decided to test the waters
Saw a message yesterday on how to become a poster yesterday and after almost three years of lurking decided to sign up to post to this fine site. Just returned to the United States after spending 8 years in Japan, and the US economy looks like heaven compared to Japan. Not to say everything is fine here, as I have been reading this site for three years, but in all honesty Japan has been a walking corpse since 1999 and its only a matter time before they pull the whole world down with them.

All the stories about the Japanese waiting outside of the gold shops is true. Saw a little old man walk into a gold shop with a backpack full of yen and walk out and get into a taxi with what looked like at least 15-20 l kilo bars of gold. Have also personally waited in line over two hours to buy gold one afternoon in Tokyo. After CNBC Nikkei lost all their internet advertisers, the main advertisers were Tanaka Kikinzoku and other Gold related investments. Am actually shocked how the news here does not display or rarely talk about the POG. In Japan it was mentioned in every news show and on the financial shows it's price was quoted right after the day's yen-dollar exchange rate. Guess tptb here have too much to loose if price of gold rises and the ptb in Japan have too much to loose if it does and they did not make it an option when their banks fail in April.

Really do see many similarities with the US economic situation and Japan. We are several years behind them with a similar situation of debt overhang will occur. Money becomes so cheap to borrow, but no one will borow or lend because there are limited opportunites to provide a decent return. Waiting for the housing bubble to burst in the US and it will, maybe not this year probably next. Thing to understand here is that it usually does not just implode. It is a long drawn out and painful event. Most of the buying in Japan occured years after the stock market tanked. Probably up to 1993-4. Then a funny thing happened. No one was buying any more as an investment. Then the price started going down, slowly, slowly slowly 5-10% a year. Year after year, 9 years in a row and still to this day 5-10% per year depending on your location.

Might have paid a million for your house ( shoebox ) and still owe 750k, but if you try to sell it, if you are lucky, maybe 350-400k tops. So what happens is you sell it and still owe 350k to the bank. The 2.2% iterest on home loans lessens the pain, but it is still a burden nevertheless. Needless to say, I am renting, with no plans to buy a house for several years to come. All that money on house maintanance etc I save I can put into AU.
Zhisheng
(03/06/2003; 22:19:30 MDT - Msg ID: 99043)
The Mark and the Yen [DummyAMI(#99035)]
and perhaps the dollar.Thanks for the added data DummyANI, and the explanation.---quite graphic! Continual deterioration for a decade seems to indicate either a lack of means to reverse the trend, or lack of a social/political context to implement a solution.

You state that the housing bubble is the fundamental problem in the Japanese banking system. I wonder if that will not become the case in the US? Hitherto the problem has been over-investment in the stock market (now at about 6o per cent of its highs), easy credit (causing mal-investment and over-investment), and more recently a weakening of the dollar. With many real estate loans locked in at quite low rates, I fear that a rise in interest rates (to prevent foreign investments on the dollar from melting away) will explode the housing market and banks will be left with increasing and eventually insupportable non-performing assets. If Japan could not solve the problem after ten years of struggle, will the US do any better?

ElGordo
(03/06/2003; 22:27:58 MDT - Msg ID: 99044)
Nikkei at 1983 level, breaks 800
Tokyo, March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks fell, driving the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to a 20-year low. Exporters such as Sony Corp. declined after President George W. Bush said the U.S. doesn't need United Nations backing to attack Iraq, heightening concern a war will damp growth in the world's largest economy.

The Nikkei fell 204.94, or 2.5 percent, to 8164.21 as of 1:42 p.m. in Tokyo. The average fell to its lowest intraday level since March 1983. The Topix index fell 17.48, or 2.1 percent, to 798.74. The index fell below 800 for the first time since August 1984.
_____________
I wonder if the DOW could go to its 1983 level?

I thought 900 would trigger a banking crisis but maybe the
banks can just keep surviving.

Black Blade
(03/06/2003; 22:38:24 MDT - Msg ID: 99045)
Asian Markets Tank Hard Tonight
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets are awash in red tonight following in US markets footsteps. In the US individual investors simply have walked away from the stock market as continuing low volumes attest. It's not just uncertainty over war and geopolitical tensions but absolutely horrific earnings warnings from companies worldwide. Analysts will be busy writing down earnings estimates so that companies can "beat the street" estimates in the never ending game of "spin the story and fool the investor". It should get quite "interesting" over the next few weeks as the global economy slips off into oblivion.

- Black Blade
Waverider
(03/06/2003; 23:38:27 MDT - Msg ID: 99046)
US dollar and POG
Just for fun I ran a correlation coefficient on the US dollar index and POG for the data I have this year from Jan 14 to today (n=36). I did a scatter plot first and the data points were everywhere - it was impossible to visualize a negative linear model let alone plot a trend line. I ran a correlation coefficient and got r at -.26, which suggests a very weak (nil) correlation between the movement in the US dollar index and POG since mid January (meaningless really since there's not even a linear model). And look at the POG:XAU ratio at 5.09 today. TPTB have got to be quaking in their boots - the pressure to keep the POG and the shares down has got to be explosive. I know ya'll got Gold, got seat belts?
Waverider
DummyANI
(03/06/2003; 23:39:04 MDT - Msg ID: 99047)
@Zhisheng #99043
The size of housing bubbles is very different between Japan and USA. In 1989, a total amount of the Japanese real estates was overestimated more than two-fold of a total amount of the USA. So that more than $10 trillion USD value was lost from Japanese banks. This loss will be never happened in USA.
Today's Nikkei225 was closed at 8144 point. This is 20.9 percent level of its peak. The closed price of BOJ(Bank of Japan) was 45,600Yen/share. This is 6.04 percent level of its peak. This indicates that BOJ lost the management capability. High interest rates directly attack at Gov. bonds of BOJ. I believe that USA has no problems at all. Because USD is a key currency, FED can adopt a printing-press policy very effectively. If BOJ adopts a printing-press policy, Yen will be sky-diving very quickly.
D-Ani.
Gandalf the White
(03/07/2003; 00:15:48 MDT - Msg ID: 99048)
TAAAA TAAAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA --- POG Prognostication CONTEST
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlListing UP-DATED as of FRIDAY, 3/7/03, 00:01 Denver Time !

NOTE to CONTEST entrants -- Please check to see if your "Prognostication" number has been taken in any newly entered guess, AFTER the above posting time, just before you submit yours, so that there are not any duplications ! Thanks <;-)

**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)

**** $404.5 **** Operative (3/4/03; 13:21:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98861)

**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)

**** $399.0 **** Ananse (03/06/03; 21:16:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99033)

**** $392.5 **** physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824)

**** $388.8 **** Believer (3/4/03; 17:29:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98891)

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (02/28/03; 06:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98581)
**** $385.4 **** slingshot (02/27/03; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98555)

**** $381.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (02/27/03; 10:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98525

**** $378.0 **** Mountain Top (02/27/03; 17:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98543)

**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)
**** $377.7 **** Roccoco (3/4/03; 18:59:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98902)

**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)

**** $372.7 **** Noble1 (03/03/03; 20:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98819)

**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)

**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)

**** $362.4 **** Boilermaker (3/4/03; 15:25:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98876)

**** $360.8 **** VanRip (03/03/03; 19:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98814)

**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)

**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $354.7 **** RILEY (03/06/03; 13:11:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 99016)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $344.0 **** monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787)

**** $340.0 **** kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)



Black Blade
(03/07/2003; 02:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 99049)
Global Market Meltdown
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Stock markets around the globe are awash in red.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(03/07/2003; 02:23:20 MDT - Msg ID: 99050)
Market Indicators
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures are sharply lower, the USD about to go sub 98, gold is flat, oil and NatGas are higher. Should be "entertaining" on Wall Street today.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(03/07/2003; 03:33:21 MDT - Msg ID: 99051)
Auto Incentives Rise, but Sales Decline
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/030307/auto_incentives_1.html
Snippit:

DETROIT (AP) -- Incentives on new cars and trucks rose 10 percent in February from the month before, but the financing deals and cash-back offers weren't enough to stave off a disappointing sales month -- a sign the enticements may be losing their effectiveness.

Black Blade: Tapped out consumers just aren't ready to take on any more debt.

BTW, the USD just slipped below 98.

Sundeck
(03/07/2003; 04:26:27 MDT - Msg ID: 99052)
Waverider #99046 - US dollar and POG
Lady Waverider,

Hour-to-hour and day-to-day correlation between POG and USDX is low, as you have observed. Some days there are roughly coincident shifts that are very suggestive, but there are too many things going on to get a very good correlation in the short term.

Suggest instead you do a simple scatter plot of POG and USDX for the last couple of years (INO show data back to June 01). No need to be fancy, just take a dozen or so weekly averages at different points along the curves so that the whole variation in POG (260 to 380) and USDX (120 to 98) is well represented in your scatter plot. There is a quite good linear relationship described by:

P = -4.35 x D + 782

where D is the USDX and P is the price of gold in US dollars.


You can check. At the moment I write this the USDX is 98, so evaluating the equation gives you P = 356, so we are roughly on track.

You may get wild excursions from this rule for up to several days (like back at the beginning of Feb), but over time the equation is good.

Please note, however, that this is an "empirical" formula deduced by fitting a straight line to the data over the last couple of years. There are no obvious underlying fundamental reasons leading to this equation, and there is no guarantee that it will hold in the future, so caveat emptor - "let the buyer beware"!

:-)

Sundeck
silvercollector
(03/07/2003; 04:43:19 MDT - Msg ID: 99053)
Not too much being said about Bush's little speech .....
...hope everyone has their act together.

The man has been doing alot of soul searching lately....sure signof war. He states "we have food and medical supplies ready" for the Iraqi people. He speaks in 'done deal' tone, a psych major would have a proper term for this.

I had a sensitive post removed Saturday morning, I guess it was too hot to handle. Too bad Bush blew the chance to end this morbid war game in Tora Bora.

Now he faces the biggest decision in human history....and he's made the call.
Boilermaker
(03/07/2003; 05:24:26 MDT - Msg ID: 99054)
ProInvidia msg#: 99042
Welcome to the forum. Enjoyed your post last PM especially the description of Japanese gold buying and real estate markets. Hope to hear more from you.

Cheers,
Boilermaker
Asaf
(03/07/2003; 05:43:53 MDT - Msg ID: 99055)
Hello to all!
Hi, my name is Asaf and I am new to the forum. I am certainly a "precious metals bug", and my main interest in this field is about the monetary use of metals. I support the restoration of metallism in our world.
Anyhow, I love this forum, it is a very interesting place on the net, and I hope it'll continue to be so.

PS, I hope that I'll soon submit to the contest... (-:
Carl H
(03/07/2003; 06:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 99056)
Welcome ProInvidia
I also found your commentary interesting. I thought I might add my own to it.

I am an American and am residing abroad right now. We are in Changzhou, China. It is a "small" city, "small" being somewhat on the high side of 1M. It is located about 75 miles east of Shanghai. We have been here 6 weeks or so. I have had a couple opportunities to price gold here. The gold I priced was in jewlry shops, but was in a bullion form -- rather like the 1Kg bars, but smaller, say 100g, or 200g. It was priced at 129RMB/g which works out to about $484/oz. The stores were not particularly busy.
mikal
(03/07/2003; 07:35:37 MDT - Msg ID: 99057)
Gold believer's messages increasingly emphatic
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/russell030803.htmlRussell On Global Affairs & the Markets
Richard Russell -March 8, 2003 -Excerpts:
"What about the economy?
Hey good news. St. Louis Fed. President William Poole said the odds of a double-dip recession in the US remains small. Right, you dunder-head, we can't have a double-dip recession because we never got out of the single dip. Surprise, we've been in a recession all along.
Today the US Labor Dept. reported that claims for unemployment have jumped to 430,000, highest for the year. This doesn't include all the workers who's unemployment pay has run out, leaving them jobless with no income at all.
Here in the Golden State, the deficit hole gets deeper by the billions of dollars.....
I do know how the moving averages are doing. Today the declining 200-day MA of the Dow stands at a new bear market low of 8550. The faster-moving 50-day MA of the Dow stands at 8194. The spread between the two has widened to 356, widest yet on the decline. On a trend basis, the Dow's decline is accelerating.....
However, my own studies tell me that the bear market in the US is still nowhere near completed. We've got a long way to go, and people are getting impatient.
In the next Dow Theory Letter I'll be going into the question of the Dow in detail. And it will not be a happy experience, I'm sad to say.....
Gold -- Looking at the daily chart of April gold, it appears that following the sharp correction following the February 5 peak of 384.50, gold tumbled. But it looks as though April gold has formed a double bottom in the 345 area. Gold has been climbing higher since it's last low of February 28 at 345.00.
The rising 200-day MA of April gold stands today at 330. The rising 50-day MA stands today at 357.30. Any close above 357.30 would constitute a "buy signal."
Incidentally, at gold's recent high of 384.50 its 200-day MA was at 326. This means that gold was 15% above its MA. As a rule, when any item if at 10% or more above or below its 200-day MA, that item is "stretched."
Currently, gold is 7% above its 200-day MA, and I continue to believe that there is a 80/20 percent chance that the correction is over....." End snippitts
Buena Fe
(03/07/2003; 07:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 99058)
ppt
ha ha, what a hoot,

when the market action (particularily gold) is this blatantly managed, as it is this morning (imho) you KNOW that you are close to a major (once in 20yr) break point!

gold may go from the "prison" to the "palace" in a move so fast that most folks will be "battin their eyes like a frog in a hail storm"!

get under cover mertle before those hail stones knock you senseless, and in a dissy state you'll want to sell yur yellur jsut before she goes.
ElGordo
(03/07/2003; 08:05:32 MDT - Msg ID: 99059)
OPEC : No more capacity to pump
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmiUjhU3T1BFQyB0Vienna, March 7 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, producer of a third of the world's oil, will be hard pressed to prevent an Iraq war from driving crude prices beyond a recent 12-year high because members are already pumping near capacity.

Ministers at a meeting Tuesday in Vienna will probably approve a plan backed by Saudi Arabia to produce as much oil as possible should a war disrupt supply from Iraq, which pumps 9 percent of the group's output, officials and analysts said.

Oil prices last week reached the highest since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 and touched $39.99 a barrel in New York, raising fuel costs and threatening to stunt economic growth. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have the ability to help refill U.S. inventories, which set a 28-year low last month.

``There isn't enough OPEC capacity to cover the loss of Iraq,'' said Leo Drollas, deputy executive director of the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London, a consulting company founded by former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani. ``We're entering a probable war with low inventory cover. Prices could go higher still as the war drums beat louder.''
____________
Dollar falls-Gold down?
Buena Fe
(03/07/2003; 08:08:39 MDT - Msg ID: 99060)
aboard Starship $empire
c'mon scotty (easy al) get those warp drives back on line, or this bird is goin tu succumb to the gravitational pull of that yellow fiery plant, dead ahead!

but cap't kirk (bush), we're already doin everythin we can man! i'm afraid she may melt up if pushed any further.

hyperinflate those drives scotty, that's an order.
ElGordo
(03/07/2003; 08:09:44 MDT - Msg ID: 99061)
Unemployment at 5.8%?
Washington, March 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy lost 308,000 jobs in February, the most since the Sept. 11 attacks caused firings in November 2001. Unemployment approached an eight- year high as the economy stumbled amid concerns about a possible war with Iraq.

The jobless rate rose to 5.8 percent last month from 5.7 percent in January, the Labor Department said. The unexpected drop in payrolls followed an increase of 185,000 jobs in January and was the largest decline since 327,000 positions were eliminated in November 2001. Stock prices and government bond yields fell.

``These are terrible numbers,'' said Sherry Cooper, chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, who had forecast a drop in payrolls of 75,000, the most in a Bloomberg News survey. ``The U.S. economy is clearly faltering under the weight of this tremendous Iraqi situation as well as continued cost cutting among corporations.''
________
This is a bogus number, unemployment must be higher than 5.8%.
Buena Fe
(03/07/2003; 08:15:40 MDT - Msg ID: 99062)
(No Subject)
spock? if we fire every torpedo and weapon we have, could we use that to help stave off this damned "reality field" that keeps drawing us in?

maybe, maybe not sir, but its worth a try.

ok, well get on it spock.
Carl H
(03/07/2003; 08:23:52 MDT - Msg ID: 99063)
Snow Job
Ouch. Looks like a Snow job today.
ElGordo
(03/07/2003; 08:32:52 MDT - Msg ID: 99064)
Perhaps its this news
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) -- Two sons of Osama bin Laden were arrested in southeastern Afghanistan in a joint operation involving U.S. forces, Pakistan's provincial home minister Sanaullah Zehri said. "They were arrested from Rabat area in Afghanistan," he told The Associated Press in a telephone interview. He did not identify the sons, but said that seven other Al Qaida men were killed in the operation. Zehri refused to identify which forces were involved in the operation. "They were allied forces," he said refusing to identify the nationalities of the forces involved in the operation. Rabat is at the extreme tip of southwestern Afghanistan where the Afghan, Pakistan and Iran borders meet.
Socrates964
(03/07/2003; 08:38:20 MDT - Msg ID: 99065)
SNOW JOB
IMHO part of a plan to restore confidence in the greenback by allowing foreigners to cash them in for cheap gold - who said Bretton Woods was dead.

I imagine that the aim is to discredit the French by showing that no matter how generous Uncle Sam is, they insist on opposing him. Truly a perverse people!
ElGordo
(03/07/2003; 08:57:36 MDT - Msg ID: 99066)
N Korea to test missile soon?
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - North Korea has declared a maritime exclusion zone off its coast in the Sea of Japan in a step that could signal a pending new missile test, the Defense Department said on Friday.

The department said it was aware of a three-day exclusion warning for March 8-11 declared by Pyongyang in virtually the same area where the North Koreans tested an anti-ship missile on Feb. 25.

"We are certainly aware that they have filed a notice of exclusion. That is typically a precursor to a missile test. But we're not overly concerned," said Navy Lt. Cmdr. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman.

The comments came amid rising tension in the region in a crisis over North Korea's nuclear ambitions.
Zhisheng
(03/07/2003; 08:59:20 MDT - Msg ID: 99067)
The troubles of Japan and the US.
Response to DummyANI #: 99047)I do not argue with the assertion that Japan's yen is in more immediate trouble that the US dollar. But it is an exaggeration to say, "I believe that USA has no problems at all. Because USD is a key currency, FED can adopt a printing-press policy very effectively."

The US has adopted printing press policy "very effectively", for nearly the past decade. Much of the new dollars and credit found its way into the stock market, lifting it to values nearly unthinkable at the time of the last Gulf War---for a time the rise appeared exponential. And much found its way into the coffers of the great exporting nations of the Far East, as the US trade deficit grew to values nearly unthinkable a decade ago.

This "effective" printing press policy however has had consequences of driving manufacturing abroad, imperiling the retirement savings of the elderly, and providing an investment atmosphere in the US wherein for the past year nearly the only investment "promising" reasonable returns has been real estate. Granted that this does not rival Japan's bubble, but it is all the US has right now. Consumerism is all that is driving the US economy at present, and that consumerism is fed by the real estate bubble. The effects WILL be felt in due time, and there are signs that time is not far off.

The statement that the "FED can adopt a printing-press policy very effectively", is in concurrence with august company: FED officials Greenspan and Bernanke, who have made similar statements this year. But the effectiveness of this policy in the future appears to be dependent on willingness of US markets to consume ever more foreign imports, and the willingness of these foreign exporters to continue piling up US dollars which are being inflated at an expanding rate. The US consumers are becoming afraid, and their purchases are being made not quite so carelessly, as US unemployment increases and household and government debt breaks new records almost monthly.

The dollar prices of non-manufactured articles have been rising, as evidenced by upward moves in the commodities indices. There are powerful forces indicating trouble ahead for the dollar, and talk of a "printing press policy" tends to increase those forces.
Siochaina
(03/07/2003; 09:20:44 MDT - Msg ID: 99068)
bin Laden sons capture denied by US
http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AFGHAN_BIN_LADENS_SONS?SITE=FLTAM&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULTAlthough I would love to hear that bin Laden and sons etc were indeed captured ...

"In Washington, U.S. counterterrorism officials strongly disputed the claim. They said they had no information that would suggest any of the sons had been detained.

A U.S. official told an AP Radio reporter at the White House: "We, in fact, think it's wrong."




Mr Gresham
(03/07/2003; 09:33:40 MDT - Msg ID: 99069)
Amazing!
These guys ARE pretty amazing.

How do YOU interpret volatility?
Waverider
(03/07/2003; 09:36:06 MDT - Msg ID: 99070)
Sundeck
Good morning Sundeck. Yes, I agree with you. The correlation is normally strong, I got r -9.4 for the data I have for last year. As I record the data each day it seemed to me that the pattern had changed recently - a wild excursion as you say, or a small cluster of outliers. However it makes one wonder why. I agree, short term data needs to be interpreted cautiously, and the long term trend is they key. Cheers,
Waverider
1340cc
(03/07/2003; 09:36:40 MDT - Msg ID: 99071)
Ticker Info. Please
On CNBC they run the "ticker" on stocks. I understand Red (arrow) is down, Green (arrow) is up. What do the colors white, black, gold and yellow mean? Most times these other colors appear near or after the market is closed. Sometimes there is an arrow other times not.

Sorry to bother you ladys and gentlemen with something so minor but I can't find anyone who knows the answer to my question.
Siochaina
(03/07/2003; 09:37:17 MDT - Msg ID: 99072)
Disgusted!!!!
http://www.paknews.com/top.php?id=1&date1=2003-03-07Certainly is good timing regarding report of bin Laden sons capture ...plus there is a story in Pakastani News...quoting BBC!!!...that Bush was going to announce bin
Laden's capture

Again..if true...great... BUT it sure came in handy this morning when employment numbers shocked and market started free fall

I had never believed in conspiracy theories...sure I felt that there was market gamesplaying but not all out coordinated government related conspiracy

I hate to say that I now believe it is very likely ...too many coincidences at "right" time for me

More glad than ever that I hold the "real" thing.... gold!!
21mabry
(03/07/2003; 09:41:16 MDT - Msg ID: 99073)
(No Subject)
I have found a worthy educational tool is to take and defend the opposite side of what you personally believe.This really opens up your mind.My first experience with this was when I had to defend Stalins policies during the early part of his rule.In our forum here put yourselves into the mind of someone seeking to destroy real money.KNOW YOUR ENEMY
Moegold
(03/07/2003; 09:43:00 MDT - Msg ID: 99074)
contest
*****369.50*****
Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because it was SOOOO cheap. The BOP only wanted these little pieces of paper printed in the USA with engravings of US presidents on them for the gold. (They aren't even rare; the government prints billions of them every day!) I admit they were rather artistic pieces of paper, but paper none the less. Anytime anyone wants to trade paper for gold, go for it. Can you imagine someone trading pieces of paper for 30 tonnes of gold! I wouldn't have done it if it was the kid down the block for fear of taking advantage of him, but the BOP is supposed represent intelligent, sophisticated folks. Paper for gold. How could I not trade!
a nation of one
(03/07/2003; 10:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 99075)
news and research

Richard Russell says: "Amazing that there are still more bullish than bearish advisors. I've never seen anything like it. Is there anything that will turn investors bearish?"

--There is no real surprise to this at all, because, although there are exceptions, the general rule is that if an investor does not do his own research, the investment news that he hears will be in the interest of those delivering the investment news. The more research one does on one's own, the more likely it is that the information one finds will be in his own interest.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/07/2003; 10:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 99076)
Real gold, real easy. Delivered to your door.
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow (weekend) will bring.

Call USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals
(800) 869-5115

mikal
(03/07/2003; 10:42:14 MDT - Msg ID: 99077)
More on Buffett
http://www.cnn.com COMMENTARY The Bottom Line
Buffett to investors: Do nothing
The Oracle of Omaha says to stay on the sidelines -- you should listen. More on Quattrone.
March 7, 2003: 11:35 AM EST
By Adam Lashinsky, CNN/Money Contributing Columnist
PALO ALTO, Calif. (CNN/Money) -Excerpt: "For two days running earlier this week the most popular article by far on this Web site was Fortune magazine's exclusive preview of Warren Buffet's annual letter to his shareholders.
The Oracle of Omaha went on at some length about derivatives, a real messy topic that even his clear, homespun English didn't completely clean up.
Here's the short version: Derivatives are really complicated financial instruments that nobody totally understands, that corporations use too much and that Buffett thinks are going to be a real problem going forward for the stock market. Journalists have a tried and true method of dealing with messy topics. They ignore them. That's why most of the press coverage surrounding Buffett's annual pronouncement focused not on his comments on derivatives, but rather on what the great man had to say regarding stocks.
That's not so outrageous. After all, Buffett is one of the greatest investors of the last half a century. And really, slavish coverage in glossy national magazines notwithstanding, the statement isn't an exaggeration.
And again, Buffett had a handful of interesting things to say about the market, including that he's been dabbling of late in junk bonds.
But perhaps the most interesting sentence in the whole thing was this one: "Occasionally, successful investing requires inactivity."
Think about that for a second. The man who loves investing like a sumo wrestler loves eating rice is suggesting your best investment strategy of the moment is to do nothing.
"Despite three years of falling prices, which have significantly improved the attractiveness of common stocks, we still find very few that even mildly interest us," Buffett writes. What he is saying is that despite exhaustive research and three years of market declines, he can't find many stocks he'd like to buy. And that includes not adding to the positions of companies he already owns.
You don't need to be a rocket scientist -- or even a serial acquirer of insurance companies -- to realize that if one of our era's great investors is sitting on the sidelines, perhaps you should be too..."
Adam Lashinsky is a senior writer for Fortune magazine. Send e-mail to Adam at lashinskysbottomline@yahoo.com.
GoldnSilver2002
(03/07/2003; 10:47:15 MDT - Msg ID: 99078)
The new routine for hitting gold,right after Bush says we are going to war
After every president's speech,they hit gold.After Bush says,"We are going to war.",gold goes down?I'd hate to be A so callled gold analyst now.All markets now are wacked.I started laughing when Bush said,"i believe in a free market".Firstly,it wasnt free to many investors.Secondly,they are so heavily manipulated now they may never be free again.Start rumour,hit gold,pump dow.Wait till something really happens.Maybe they can control the markets,but they cant control the world.
mikal
(03/07/2003; 10:53:44 MDT - Msg ID: 99079)
Corrected link
http://www.cnnfn.comThis link provides the joint CNN-Money magazine page on which the story may be accessed. The long address of the article does not show completely on my low-power, web-tv computer, but the above link is one step away.
ElGordo
(03/07/2003; 10:58:06 MDT - Msg ID: 99080)
Budget : A sea of Red
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=1DXWSXGWYDZ4OCRBAEOCFFA?type=topNews&storyID=2344289WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Congress's fiscal watchdog will provide a sharp reminder to lawmakers on Friday of the scale of the problems they face as they begin their annual budget debates next week.

In its annual review of President Bush's budget, the Congressional Budget Office is expected to predict that his plans to cut taxes and boost military spending will generate more than $2 trillion in federal deficits in the next decade.

The report, due to be sent to lawmakers on Friday evening, will likely also boost the CBO's own forecasts of a $199 billion deficit in 2003 and $145 billion shortfall in 2004 by around $30 billion, lawmakers and aides have said.

The White House has already predicted government deficits of over $300 billion this year and in 2004, easily surpassing the previous 1992 record of $290 billion in dollar terms.

"We're now looking at deficits that will be large for the next five to 10 years, and gargantuan thereafter," said former CBO Director Robert Reischauer, now head of the Urban Institute think tank. "The outlook is a sea of red ink."
___________
The facts support gold for many years to come.
Waverider
(03/07/2003; 10:59:44 MDT - Msg ID: 99081)
Sir MK - Happy Birthday
Yes, a little birdie told me that today is YOUR special day! So a HAPPY BIRTHDAY to you good Sir - may you have a Golden day filled with family, friends, and good health! And a special Thank You for your continued generosity and leadership in hosting this fine forum! Cheers,
Waverider
Operative
(03/07/2003; 11:08:51 MDT - Msg ID: 99082)
Plan B
""We are achieving our goal of building a more prepared nation, one individual, one family,
one neighborhood, one community at a time," Ridge said."
Director of Homeland Security

Makes you feel warm all over doesnt it? Golly, that is going to be a huge mountain of Duct Tape. Although I admit that I am still having trouble connecting the dots, (guess that is why I am not the Director of Homeland Security)as to how all that Duct Tape is going to protect me from falling stock market, falling dollar value, huge government/private debt, funky accounting methods, higher gasoline prices, higher taxes (somebody has got to bail out the local, city, county, state, and fed budgets)underfunded pension funds, increased medical coverage, increasing insurance premiums, etc. Wow! I'm just happy that there is no inflation. Phew!

Anyway, I think I will continue with my own plan. I have named it after Black Blade: Plan "B".

Get out of debt, stash a little cash, increase food supplies, and fill up more matchboxes with gold and silver.
Gandalf the White
(03/07/2003; 11:14:03 MDT - Msg ID: 99083)
Birthday Wishes to SIR MK !
OK, all you Hobbits -- TOGETHER NOW .....
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU !
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU !
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO SIR MK,
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU !!!!!!
<;-)
slingshot
(03/07/2003; 11:24:16 MDT - Msg ID: 99084)
Happy Birthday Sir MK
Wishing you a Golden Day and success in all you do.
Slingshot--------<>
TownCrier
(03/07/2003; 11:45:30 MDT - Msg ID: 99085)
Traders see Federal Reserve lowering interest rates further
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030307/markets_futures_fed_1.htmlCHICAGO, March 7 (Reuters) - Federal fund futures at the Chicago Board of Trade rallied on Friday, suggesting a renewed chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, after a surprise fall in U.S. payrolls eroded hopes for an economic recovery. ...the U.S. job market lost 308,000 jobs in February ...the largest drop since November 2001. The jobless rate rose to 5.8 from 5.7 percent.

The weak report triggered a spike in Fed funds futures, which are used by some analysts to gauge future Fed rate moves.

"It looks like they're seriously pressing the Fed to ease again," said Joe Giagrande, bond trader at Gelber Group. "It looks they've got about a 35 to 40 percent chance for a quarter point ease by the March (Fed policy) meeting. Before the numbers, I expect they had about a 25 percent chance."

"When you get above 30 percent, the market is kind of serious about a potential ease," Giagrande said. "The expectations have broken into a more serious level."

May Fed funds futures were up 7.5 basis points after the jobs data release, reflecting a 75 percent chance of a rate cut by the May Fed policy meeting...

-----(see url for article)----

As a policy item the Fed can make the price of money (overnight fed funds) as cheap as they want, but with it comes the risk that purchasing power is lost, making longer term bonds less attractive as investments without a compensating rise in yeild -- brought about by a fall in their market price. Bonds, then, are by no means an infallible safe haven when you're looking for security against being rendered financially destitute by policy measures (and world events) beyond your control.

Call MK and his staff at Centennial for assistance on a gold diversification program that is right for your personal circumstances. 1-(800) 869-5115

R.
Simply Me
(03/07/2003; 12:06:02 MDT - Msg ID: 99086)
(No Subject)
MK,
A very happy birthday to the King of the USAGOLD Castle!
Simply
TownCrier
(03/07/2003; 12:14:58 MDT - Msg ID: 99087)
Federal Reserve validates market's view for cheaper dollars
With market in overnight money (fed funds) trading this morning at 1.188 percent, well below the Fed's own target rate of 1.25 percent, the Fed nevertheless participated in the open market, accepting bids for cash at prices as low as 1.190 percent today.

In total, the Fed provided a fresh $2 billion to the high power money supply (i.e., banking reserves) with today's operation using over-the-weekend repurchase agreements.

R.
Lothar of the Hill People
(03/07/2003; 12:42:40 MDT - Msg ID: 99088)
Best returns MK
All together now....hut...hut...hut...hut...

i don't know but i've been told-
I DON'T KNOW BUT I'VE BEEN TOLD!
someone here is get'n old-
SOMEONE HERE IS GET'N OLD!

i don't know but i have heard-
I DON'T KNOW BUT I HAVE HEAR!
someone's eyes are get'n blurred-
SOMEONE'S EYES ARE GET'N BLURRED!

i don't know but i believe-
I DON'T KNOW BUT I BELIEVE!
someone's ears will soon deceive-
SOMEONE'S EARS WILL SOON DECEIVE!

i don't know but its been said-
I DON'T KNOW BUT ITS BEEN SAID!
someone's face is get'n red-
SOMEONE'S FACE IS GET'N RED!

sound off-
1! 2!

sound off-
3! 4!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY
HAPPY
BIRTH! DAY!
Broken Tee
(03/07/2003; 12:50:31 MDT - Msg ID: 99089)
test
test
Gandalf the White
(03/07/2003; 12:54:11 MDT - Msg ID: 99090)
POG CONTEST -- UP-DATE on the SAGA of "King of the Hill" !
Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
UP-DATE on POG CONTEST "KING of the HILL" status ! <;-)
<<<< SNIP >>>>
**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)
**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)
---

Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
2/28/03 GC3J HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 OI = 105,993
3/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 OI = 104,153
3/04/03 GC3J HIGH = $354.9 low = $349.5 Settlement = $353.3 Change +$4.0 OI = 105,279
3/05/03 GC3J HIGH = $358.8 low = $352.3 Settlement = $353.2 Change -$0.1 OI = 106,349
3/06/03 GC3J HIGH = $357.4 low = $352.6 Settlement = $356.9 Change +$3.7 OI = 106,444
3/07/03 GC3J HIGH = $358.7 low = $347.0 Settlement = $350.9 Change -$6.0 OI = ?

===
Contest FIRST DAY, 2/28, Sir Kevin$ was "King of the Hill"
Contest SECOND DAY, 3/3, Sir Kevin$ was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!
Contest THIRD DAY, 3/4, Sir Zelts was "King of the Hill" !!!
Contest FOURTH DAY, 3/5, Sir Zelts was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!!!
Contest FIFTH DAY, 3/6, Sir Liberty Head was "King of the Hill" !!!!!
Contest SIXTH DAY, 3/7 Sir Zelts RETURNS AGAIN to be the "King of the Hill" !
===
ABOUT FOUR days remain to Enter the CONTESTS.
Put on your thinking HAT and prepare to make your PROGNOSTICATIONS soon !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/07/2003; 13:00:33 MDT - Msg ID: 99091)
ATTENTION all you LURKERS and Newbies !! --- COME ON IN !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlJoin the FUN and become "wealthy" at the same time !! <;-)
===
Just enter either or BOTH Portions of the new CONTEST, and WIN "FREE" Gold and/or Silver !!! To enter, you must have a Free "POSTING PASSWORD". BUT, IF you do not now have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD) --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK above ! He makes it easy and painless too. There WILL be FREE GOLD and Silver given away for the BEST ESSAY and most accurate Price Of Gold (POG) Prognostications.
===
THANKS for all you new posters that have joined us at the FORUM -- I'm sorry to not have been able to "GREET" you personally.
<;-)
Montana
(03/07/2003; 13:17:25 MDT - Msg ID: 99092)
*****398*****
Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold and I did it because I wanted to leave as a legacy a statue of myself. The statue will be carved from beautiful stone and now I can add even more grandeur because parts will be made of gold.
I surmise that many thousands of years from now that there will be anthropologists uncovering the eroding statue but to their amazement will find that parts were made of gold which was just as beautiful as when first formed.
One anthopologist will say,"This is incredible! Who was this guy? To bad he didn't place his name on the gold parts." His partner would respond," That's becasue these are private parts."
Aristotle
(03/07/2003; 13:42:42 MDT - Msg ID: 99093)
Investment fluff for Friday... some days are better than others. Today's a good one!
I'm happy to see the New York paper punters have done another favor for Gold buyers like us. If you can keep your head about you, and it really is that simple, load up with gratitude!

It's like this. Can you imagine anyone sitting around yesterday thinking for all the obvious reasons, "Hmmmm... I think I should get me some (more) Gold tomorrow," and then being dissuaded from his intended purchase because the futures boys in New York did him a pricing favor?

Sad thing is, the guys who probably need Gold the most are the same ones who have purchasing intentions that wax and wane with rising and falling prices, respectively. They're easily unnerved and never give themselves the benefits of these passing bargains.

If this sketch seems eerily familiar, like looking in a mirror, I've got a solution for you -- you need to put your wife in charge of buying your Gold. She'll get the job done right for you timid gents. You don't have to take my word for it... talk to her! (But first prepare yourself to be humbled in the art of value shopping.)

Gold. Get you some with a little help from the little lady. --- Aristotle

PS. If the rumor be true, a hearty 'Happy Birthday!' to MK!
ElGordo
(03/07/2003; 13:58:41 MDT - Msg ID: 99094)
Rumor hits Gold
NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - COMEX gold futures plunged more than 2 percent on Friday, as investors dumped safe haven positions on talk of reports that sons of fugitive al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden had been arrested in a raid in Pakistan.

At 1023 EST (1523 GMT) benchmark April gold was down $6.20 at $350.70 an ounce after bottoming at $347.

Early Friday it rose to $358.70 on news of a shocking 308,000 drop in February non-farm payrolls.
J-Bullion
(03/07/2003; 14:10:30 MDT - Msg ID: 99095)
*******371**************
Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold and I did it because....I felt sorry for the Portuguese holding all that gold. A lot of other countries in the world are racing to sell all the gold that they have before the world runs out of paper money. It's not like paper isn't abundant and grows on trees? It takes a lot of effort to turn a tree into paper, put some ink and numbers on it and call it money, just ask any good counterfeiter. So please everyone, chip in and relieve the world's central banks of their gold so they can pay down debt, have a bonfire, or buy Sir Alan and the bullion bankers a nice present.
Bizkit
(03/07/2003; 15:31:28 MDT - Msg ID: 99096)
*********335.20************
Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it because the fiat paper system has a freaking fraudulent nature which is used to tax people out of their control and perception... not fair, and I don't like playing unfair games... you know, I'm not a chimp!
And let's face the truth, have these bureaucrats ever made a good investments in their life? Selling low buying high, that's their role to stabilize the system. So, they are selling and I'm buying it, and I'm gonna buy even more if their selling pressure pushes the POG to 335 again next week. Let me put my hands on another true gift, 30 tonnes is not enuf for me, my truck has still some empty room and it screams to get filled. Bwwwwaaaaaa. Want more.
21mabry
(03/07/2003; 15:39:25 MDT - Msg ID: 99097)
markets
Happy Birthday MK. What kind of investment climate is this.Everything is going down or stuck where its at.Investments that usually move in opposite directions are moving down together even when a commodity goes up in price stocks and mutual funds that invest in that sector go down this is a very strange investment enviroment.I do not have alot of experience but even i can see this.Physical metal looks to me like a safe port in this storm.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/07/2003; 15:47:13 MDT - Msg ID: 99098)
Broaden the scope of your investment horizon. A complete gold education (in 175 pages) for only $5.95 !
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Waverider
(03/07/2003; 16:41:57 MDT - Msg ID: 99099)
DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlSnip
"The U.S. dollar continues to weaken under crushing debt and growing deficits. This trend will continue, possibly indefinitely, as foreign investors withdraw from U.S. dollar investments. Gold will remain supported as the dollar weakens regardless of sideshow events like war in Iraq, nukes and missiles in North Korea, terrorist bombings in SE Asia and chasing wisps of smoke like today's debunked al Qaeda rumor. In the end it's really about the dollar."
Brett Woods
(03/07/2003; 16:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 99100)
Happy Birthday MK!
Did you sell a little of your stash today to buy yourself a present?
Goldilox
(03/07/2003; 18:18:20 MDT - Msg ID: 99101)
I Bought it
OK, I admit that I bought Portugal's gold. After viewing "Swordfish" for the umpteenth time, I figured John Travolta's $9 Bn stash was insufficient for properly fighting terrorism and wanted to back him up with some less depreciative funding, knowing the ENRON proceeds will need to remain invisible a lot longer due to litigation. Now that I've let the cat out of the bag, I suspect the guys that were after Mel Gibson in "Conspiracy Theory" will be watching me much more closely.

$369.0

-Goldilox
Cometose
(03/07/2003; 20:47:08 MDT - Msg ID: 99102)
President Bush/ N Korea/ Bill Clinton
Happy Birthday MK.....

I forgot how we met, but I was thinking about it a this morning and realized that I forgot....probably had something to do with gold.....

I'm going to tell a little story and then .... thank you in context

Back in the early 90's , I recieved a gift of Market Wizards if memory serves.... There was a sketch on a figure in that book...

There's a record in the book of a man who was very succesful trader in some commodity.... the interviewer
asked what gave him the drive to become all that he had achieved in his profession....

His response was approximately " I don't want to have my child(ren) come to me one day in the future and ask me why I didn't do everything in my power to prepare against all eventualities...."

I had very small children at the time ( 7, 4, 5, 12, and
-1) in 1992, all boys) I internalized what the man said in the above quote....

In my heart I identified that I was scared and vanquished the fear and said in my prayer, I need to have solid information and good sources of information to light my path in the financial jungle....GOd send me people that can help me in this area.....

You , in this respect , have been an answer to prayer..

Thank you

The day I said that prayer was a turning point in my life, and much later also was the day that I decided to quit drinking caffienated coffee .





Someone did a report on Drudge this morning on Pres Bush's speech , said he wasn't him self and alluded to the fact that he might have taken a pill.....

That would not be where I would be going in a time like this but I'm afraid that the Pharmaceutical industry may have undermined the thinking and reasoning ability of the populace as accountants have undermined the financial statements of Corporate america..... and the battle on the integrity of the rock that is America continues......

Korea is on the "in your face campaign " to make clear what their missile capability is ......

there is an appropriate analagous scene in the movie
TOMBSTONE when Wyatt Earp has just gone in the street
and apprehended Curly Bill Brocie .... Ike Clanton walks
up on Wyatt Earp to challenge him and demand that Wyatt
Earp let go of Curly Bill and then Wyatt drew his
revolver and put it between Ikes eyes on his forehead.
Someone in the crowd said to Ike that Wyatt was bluffing.
Ike was looking into the eyes of Wyatt Earp and he got
very still and serious and Ike said "HE'S NOT BLUFFING!"

All this .... on the eve of America's Iraqi ADVENTURE...

Some of Bushes speech last night and his reference to GOD
and the individual rights of all people to be free ....
took me back to MANIFEST DESTINY in early American history

That was the justification (propoganda ) utilized for taking the land and killing the savage indians .... George's dad said something about 1000 points of light and a kinder and gentler nation..... How ironic

From a position of faith .....I can go along with the idea of every one getting a shot at freedom the essence of which is Spiritual....Many believe that is the destiny of our country .....to liberate the captive ......I hope that we , and our leaders are not sending out the wrong message...

There is something else that is crawling up the back of my brain that i would like to add , however .....which pertains to history.....

THe arabs invited multinational oil companies into the region decades ago and made deals .... with those companies ( that is the free enterprize system isn't it? this for that)
After those companies helped them drill and devlop those oil fields that were discovered there...because of someone I believe whose descent is not middle eastern....the arabs kicked the companies out of their countries......
their have been dirty tricks and behind the scenes monkey business from Arab States and US intelligence.....
However, most recently , it is implied that much funding that comes from the oil fields below Saudi Arabia has been funneled to Terrorist Organizations....one of which successfully attacked the US and cut off the lives of thousands....MEN WOMEN AND CHILDREN....FAMILIES , HEARTS,
SOURCES OF LOVE SUPPORT AND VISION ( a looking after)for CHILDRENS' futures.......

THE Arab States colluded together to see this thing done..
and they used natural resources to fund a heinous act...
which they will continue to do might makes right or some bs and the end justifies the means ( Machiavelli)

I guess taking their oil away is tantamount to taking guns way from teenagers in gangs....

They were irresponsible so they're going to loose their toys.

I think that the N Koreans are going to be suprised at what
their going to get......in the form of new technology to deal with their threats....

and now on to the topic of

CBS HIRING BILL CLINTON>>>>>for entertainment.....

SOme of you are no doubt aware of the alleged report that a NOrth Korean Warhead was found in Alaska......in addition
tonight on K there is a report of some N Korean Spokesman
bragging about raining down missiles all over american cities...they have the missiles to reach "any" american city he claims.......

It is rumored or perhaps documented that BILL CLINTON in conjunction with Loral corp gave missile and launch technology to the Chinese .........who are backing NK
If one of the NK missiles hits US soil......
BILL CLINTON will be tried for treason........ which should have happened years ago.....

Good Evening all....


physicalman
(03/07/2003; 21:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 99103)
21Mabry-post#99073 9:41 a.m.
That is a well-worded point to make about trying to think how your adversary makes their moves and one i have pondered several times. I personally, for what it's worth believe that these strange reverse prices movements that go against past market history are showing that TPTB are accumulating (some personally and others for their institutions) as much physical PM's as they can and desperately trying to unwind as many hedges and derivatives as possible. Maybe the best way i can explain it is that us and TPTB (PPT) are playing monopoly. They own all the residential properties and have hotels on every one of them. All we hit and bought were the railroads. But, all we roll with the dice are sevens and tens or fives and tens, landing on our own railroads and never paying rent(fees and interest) to them. All they roll are fives and tens and are slowly losing their money to us but collecting 200 more when they pass go (Fed pump and Treasury print) which is keeping them in the game longer than we would like. When they finally run out of monopoly money to play the rent on our railroads(gold and silver) that will be the time where they will have to fold, trade us a property so the game can continue a little longer or makes changes to the rules (like making us roll with one dice). Little do they realize that we can still roll fives at will and avoid their rents (for we have physical) We do not have total control over that five roll that will put us in jail (govt confiscation) though and let us hope that is not one of the rule changes in the future!
physicalman
(03/07/2003; 22:06:20 MDT - Msg ID: 99104)
21Mabry
Oops. was not finished, accidently hit the submit icon.
I used the monopoly comparision because i believe that many of the CB's and institutions (using Fed pump dollars) have been so successful so long that they are animated, it truly is a game to them. They have been manipulating the rules for so long that they have lost sight of what happens if they lose and how it will affect the real world. So many people and nations on this planet have played their adjusted monopoly game for so long and landed on their (hotels) so many times that there never will be enough "Paper" to pay all the rents due. Lots of countries, businesses and common folks can't pay and many of them soon will Not pay! Those of us with physical will not roll their numbers and pay the fees. We just have to have the fortitude to wait for them to run out of paper!
Was also catching up on the posts and saw where you were asking about sterling silver. I have never had much experience buying old flatware and sterling pieces but did occasionaly run across private mint bars. Just take the spot price times .925 and you will get the silver value of sterling bars. But remember that when you sell that dealers usually do not pay any premiums on these bars and you or they will have a bigger spread to make up because of increased refining costs.
Black Blade
(03/07/2003; 22:18:22 MDT - Msg ID: 99105)
Inflation, the falling market and a Buffett bombshell
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB5F3C0CD%2DFA3B%2D4208%2DAE78%2D1D519F730A57%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

Investors, instead of curling up inside their highly mortgaged cocoons, are registering alarm at the incessant declines of their holdings. They appear to be heeding, albeit slowly, the warnings of solid researchers such as Barry B. Bannister at Legg Mason Wood Walker. Bannister, embarking on a series of reports on the outlook for inflation the next 12 years, says simply, "We do not see a sustained change in direction that consistently favors equities until around 2015." Bannister, a capital goods analyst, gets little attention from Wall Street. Yet his research, and his conviction, are compelling. Debt in all sectors of America's economy, when measured against gross domestic product, is about where it was in 1933, just before the United States began a 20-year process of cheapening its dollar assets and thus "reflating" its economy. At the heart of sensible researchers such as Bannister is the belief that an accelerated pace of inflation, and America's $30-plus trillion of debt floating around the globe, will sink stocks and most bonds and other paper assets. Not the coming war in Iraq. Not terrorism, politics or sightings of hostile globs from outer space. At some point, says Bannister, $1 of new debt will have absolutely no "incremental positive effect" on the American economy. That point, says the former co-chief for U.S. equity research at SBC Warburg, will come in the year 2014. Bannister is Wall Street's worst nightmare. He's all about a world where investors seek out safe-money strategies and hard assets -- and sidestep anything that comes in the shape of a certificate or broker confirmation.


In the past 36 months, the rising price of gold has put 75 percentage points between itself and shares of J.P. Morgan Chase, which trade on the New York Stock Exchange. "A sharply rising gold price will most likely ignite J.P. Morgan Chase's $26 trillion of derivatives into some kind of blow-up mode," Bill Murphy tells me on the eve of the full Warren Buffett state-of-the-union address, due from that insurance executive's shareholders on Saturday.

Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A) Buffett this week sounded like the Italian poet Dante Alighieri in painting the world of derivatives as an inferno. The summary: Abandon all hope of leaving, you who pass through the derivatives gates. "Let's see: stocks overvalued and offering more risk than reward," observes Robert Bishop, editor of 20-year-old Gold Mining Stock Report ."The dollar in a confirmed major bear market. Derivative poster-child gold rising. It's not exactly a great leap to conclude that Monday's business sections may indeed be telling us of Berkshire Hathaway's newfound exposure to that best known of contra-cyclical investments, gold."


Black Blade: Good article - As I said before, it comes down to a weak US dollar. The dollar and the equities markets are stuck in a long term secular bear market that will last for years. The major problem is the extraordinary massive government debt that now feeds on itself growing like a plague with no cure. It's beyond salvaging at this point. A few years ago it seemed possible to get under control but now it is impossible. I suspect a that ultimately a sharp inflationary push in a last ditch effort will be attempted but those with precious metals portfolio insurance will come out relatively unscathed. (Think Argentina, Japan, etc.)

BTW, Happy Birthday MK, I think that calls for a Negra Modelo or two, maybe even a pitcher of Fat Tire.

Black Blade
(03/07/2003; 22:38:16 MDT - Msg ID: 99106)
Gold dips on al Qaeda report, ignores Blix
http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/03/07/rtr900822.html
Snippit:

LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Gold fell sharply in European trade on Friday, aided by talk that sons of fugitive al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden had been arrested, but took little notice of a key speech to the United Nations Security Council by chief weapons inspector Hans Blix. But the market shed around $10 in less than 30 minutes as rumours swirled that bin Laden's sons had been arrested in Pakistan. "It was quite a sobering experience for the bullish fraternity. There were about 150 things supporting gold today and it takes one story from the Khyber Pass to flummox it," said Andy Smith, precious metals analyst with Mitsui. Two sons of Osama bin Laden were wounded and possibly arrested in an operation by U.S. and Afghan troops in Afghanistan, which killed at least nine, suspected al Qaeda members, a Pakistani official said. The official said he had no information that bin Laden had been in the area at the time of the raid.

Black Blade: Let's see, gold drops $6 overall and still sits above last Friday's close and $100 above its low. The gold pit in NY close before the rumor is dispelled, equities rally and the dollar rises and that's all that happens with gold is to settle above last week's close? The weak specs cut and run � what a bunch of ninnies. Meanwhile Asian and Russian central banks and the people get are getting cheap priced physical gold for their scraps of scrip. I'm not concerned at all.

mikal
(03/07/2003; 23:34:39 MDT - Msg ID: 99107)
Retribution, reprisals and retro-habits
http://www.YellowTimes.org"The new Cold War Era"
Tuesday, March 04, 2003 By Jesse Lee
YellowTimes.org Guest Columnist (United States)
(YellowTimes.org) � As the American public carefully weighs whether the benefits of eliminating the possibility of Saddam Hussein giving al-Qaeda weapons outweighs the mounting list of horrors that war will bring, one crucial element has been left out of the equation. If we go to war, that remote possibility will not be eliminated; instead, it will be made absolutely certain. A CIA report that was released days before the congressional vote on Bush's resolution (undoubtedly delayed at Bush's request) stated exactly that, and yet it somehow seems completely forgotten by all sides. It is demonstrative of the complete brainwashing this country has undergone that this fact has been ignored not only by the media, politicians, and pundits, but even by the anti-war movement, which has allowed itself to be sucked into the irrelevant debate about "evidence." In reframing the debate in terms of a burden of proof, excluding all other objections, Bush has had his greatest and most crucial victory.
This is as important a point as I might make, but there are other important conclusions to be drawn from it. For one, the fact that this war will almost certainly ensure what it is supposed to prevent has certainly not escaped the administration, even if it has escaped the rest of us. Their recent decision to begin their attack with an assault on the transportation systems is undoubtedly a reaction to this problem. But they are well aware how little chance they will have of intercepting weapons outgoing from Saddam, and this means, quite simply, that this entire campaign has been a pack of lies from top to bottom. Not only the Iraq-al-Qaeda connection, not only the fictional nuclear program, but indeed every last word regarding the motivation of this war has been a lie.
The next question, of course, is what the real underlying motive might be. The "war for oil" explanation is too simple, and it does not recognize that these hawks in the administration view themselves as noble, if not great men. President Bush is enough of a simpleton to believe that he has good intentions, and all members of his administration undoubtedly view their propaganda campaign as a system of noble lies. So what is this cause so noble, which is in the best interest of America, but which citizens could simply never understand? The answer is to be found in the principles of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and The Project for the New American Century (PNAC), organizations whose platforms are American imperialism: an enormous defense budget increase, universal military presence, and imposition of American will by force and intimidation.
The signatories of this doctrine form a perfect circle around an obvious absent name -- they include Rumsfeld, Cheney, Wolfowitz, Quayle and Jeb Bush. This philosophy is the missing premise of this war; it fills in the hole in the administration's reasoning which has had most of America, including supporters of the war, so baffled for so many months. A formidable and reliable military outpost in the center of the Middle East is the first step in an imperialist agenda.
And so now the question emerges of what such a new American century would look like. Comparisons between Bush's policy and the American Cold War policy have largely been dismissed on the basis that the Cold War was about deterrence, while Bush seems to have no patience for such a strategy. This objection is rooted in a na�ve mythology about Cold War history in which the U.S. made the intelligent, even moral, decision to utilize deterrence rather than force. This interpretation misses the fundamental reality that in a situation of Mutually Assured Destruction, deterrence is not a choice; it is an unalterable stalemate in which both parties are locked. The patience and morality of U.S. policy would also be difficult to explain to Vietnamese and Korean victims of our invasions. At that time, just as is the case now, deterrence was a last resort. Bush learned the limitations of schoolyard bully politics through his embarrassing confrontation with North Korea, and indeed we seem to have resigned ourselves to "deterrence" once again.
The point here is that a Cold War political philosophy may be alive and well in our current administration, and it is imperative that we remember the perils and inhumanities of that philosophy. We must get it out on the table before our noble liars can launch America into another era of perpetual insecurity, hatred, and plunder. Such an agenda should come as no surprise coming from a neo-conservative ideology which holds up Reagan as the white knight who "won the Cold War."
And we should be very much on guard when we see Rumsfeld, the man who approved of giving Saddam bubonic plague in America's interest, directing our foreign policy. We should be very much on guard when we hear the word "terrorism" attached to various concepts in order to imply an evil in them, just as the word "communism" was used during McCarthyism (and as it is still used today). Weapons of mass destruction have become "Weapons of Mass Terror." North Korea is now a "Terrorist State." The administration and its regurgitators act as if these are recent discoveries, that the terms WMD and Rogue State were erroneous terms we mistakenly used for all of these years. These conscious attempts to manipulate our very language are the warning signs of a fear-mongering propaganda campaign that will plunge this country into decades of blind hatred and escalation. The possibility of an Israeli-Palestinian scenario on a global scale should not be discounted.
There is one more good reason to fear the worst here. If we accept that Saddam will give weapons to al-Qaeda, then we must also anticipate that a moment will come when that intelligence is leaked either by our own agencies or those of foreign governments. One must imagine that this will be an extremely dark and shameful hour for America, and in all likelihood that it will mark the effective end of Bush's political career. But if we also accept that Bush has foreseen that moment throughout his war campaign, as I think we must, then we must also anticipate that he has a game plan in place for that event. It is likely that the only way he will be able to survive that moment is to have swept the country into such frenzy that citizens forfeit their ability to self-criticize, and are willing to follow Bush down the imperialist path all the way. Whether this is a realistic goal for Bush is debatable, but we need to realize that all of the neo-conservative plans hinge on selling the American public on a new era of ideological nationalism. Bin Laden wants the Clash of Civilizations, and it appears that the administration may be willing to give it to him.
These hawks relish their position at the helms of the most powerful enterprise ever constructed by Man, and they seem to have an almost Nietzschean outlook that any power, any strength that is not fully utilized, is wasteful and disgraceful. Even beyond the disgusting morality of this philosophy, we must understand that this philosophy is not tenable. The war on terror will never be won by actually killing every terrorist, as any Israeli citizen can attest. The one lesson America has refused to learn from 9/11 is the most obvious of all. No amount of tanks, stealth bombers, or nukes can keep us safe from a world that hates us. But Bush is counting on a Cold War type escalation to keep his ship afloat, and with the way America has reacted thus far, we cannot count on the public to resist successfully. If this war is allowed to go on, the future for the next generation may be lost to a new Cold War, but you cannot deter a terrorist, and this time, deterrence will not save us.

Happy Birthday Michael Kosares!
Clink!
(03/07/2003; 23:46:29 MDT - Msg ID: 99108)
The arrest of Bin Laden's sons
Just been watching Bill Maher's new Realtime show. Apparently, the President had made a comment about bin Laden's sons but wasn't going to gloat over it. After all, he knows what it's like to have two of his kids arrested.......
Toolie
(03/08/2003; 00:02:32 MDT - Msg ID: 99109)
It Is Getting Tougher To Get An "Honest" Return On Your Money
http://www.ntrs.com/library/econ_research/weekly/Then click on: March 07, 2003

Snip; (from bottom of page)

Back on January 27th, I wrote a weekly piece entitled "What Makes Gold Glitter." In it I argued that gold prices would really get a boost when central banks around the world cut their policy rates below the going rates of inflation in their respective economies. The Fed already had done so at that time. I suggested that other major central banks were on the way to doing so. It has not happened universally yet, but major central banks are moving in that direction. The Bank of England recently cut its policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%. The year-over-year consumer inflation rate in the UK as of January was 2.73%. So, although you can still get about a 100 basis points of positive inflation-adjusted return on your short-term money in the UK, this is down from 250 basis points in June 2002. Dan Galo, our Bank of England expert, believes that another 25 basis point cut is in the works in a month or two. The ECB cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on March 6. The flash estimate for eurozone consumer inflation in February is 2.30%. So, you are earning a positive inflation-adjusted return on your money of only 20 basis points in Western Europe now versus 140 basis points back in June. Like the Bank of England, the ECB is generally expected to cut its policy rate another 25 basis points in the next month or two, which likely will result in negative inflation-adjusted return on your short-term money. Switzerland traditionally has been viewed as place where you could get a positive inflation-adjusted return on your money. But not these days. On March 6th, the Swiss National Bank announced a 50 basis-point cut in its interest rate target range, saying that it would now target a rate level of 0.25%. With Swiss February consumer inflation running around 1%, you get a negative inflation-adjusted return on your short-term money of 75 basis points. Here in the US, the Fed is targeting the overnight funds rate at 1.25% in the face of a January CPI inflation rate of 2.60%. Given the recent weakness in the US economy, the markets are now starting to price in another 25 basis cut in the funds rate in May or June. Unless there is a major reversal in energy prices, US consumer inflation is likely to be drifting still higher in the next several months, which would make the inflation-adjusted return on short-term money even more negative. It is getting more difficult to get an "honest" return on your short-term money in any major capital market. Unless conditions change radically in the near term, gold prices are likely to be retesting their early-February highs of $390.

Paul Kasriel
Director of Economic Research

Toolie; What to do with all those FRN's? Stocks continue to dive. Bonds with negative real return. Real estate equity becoming disposable income as Black Blade's "bone pile" grows. This house of cards seems to be left standing out of faith in the post war bounce alone. Since spring 2001 recovery has been only 6 months away. Anyone care to guess at the next Wall Street mantra will be, after it is no longer possible to blame our economic problems on uncertainty over Iraq?
Black Blade
(03/08/2003; 00:12:24 MDT - Msg ID: 99110)
US INTENTIONS - IRAQ
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/cgi-bin/MasterPFP.cgi?doc=http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/030703_us_intentions.html
Snippit:

Mar. 7, 2003, 1400 PST (FTW) -Journalist Julian Darley has a very good website, www.globalpublicmedia.com, featuring video interviews with notables such as Colin Campbell and Matthew Simmons. Matthew Simmons is the president of Simmons & Co. International, a company which specializes in investment banking to the energy industry. The Campbell interview is a very informative chat at the petroleum geologist's home in County Cork, Ireland. It is well worth perusal. The Matthew Simmons interview was recorded in an office of his business suite, and is also very informative�though it is disappointing to see a person so perceptive standing firmly behind George W. Bush. However, in his interview, Matthew Simmons made two very big revelations.

In the first instance, Mr. Simmons was discussing his email correspondence with a senior assistant to former secretary of energy Bill Richardson. The senior assistant informed Mr. Simmons in 1999 that she was accompanying Secretary Richardson on a visit to every OPEC country. Mr. Simmons told her that if he was undertaking such a tour, he would ask each country what was their spare oil capacity. Upon returning to the United States, the senior assistant called Mr. Simmons and told him that she was quite shocked by the responses to this question. In country after country, she was told that they were already pumping at or near capacity. For practical purposes, OPEC has no spare capacity.

Several of my associates have suspected as much. But in this interview, Matthew Simmons verifies the fact that OPEC is already pumping at or very close to full capacity. This means that to meet growing demand, oil must be found somewhere else. And OPEC most probably cannot increase output to cover a crisis such as the Venezuelan strike, or the disruption of Iraqi oil production in the event of another Gulf War. In fact, it was only a year after Secretary Richardson made his OPEC tour that world oil production appeared to peak, beginning the cycle of rising oil prices and tanking economies which we have been in since. Though Matthew Simmons did not spell it out, this is the clearest indication to date that we are at peak oil production.

Even unnamed senior US defense officials are stating that the plan is to take the oil fields as quickly as possible, supposedly to protect them from Saddam. British troops will be used to seize the oil fields so as to thwart the appearance of a US oil grab. However, ExxonMobil is in the lead position for rehabilitating the Iraqi oil fields. Oil executives are quoted as saying there is a desperate need to find another 80 million barrels per day to meet growing oil demand. Might we add that this growing demand cannot be met elsewhere because of the abovementioned lack of spare capacity. Even after seizing Iraq's oil fields and quelling unrest throughout the country, the oil majors will find it very difficult to increase Iraqi oil production in the short term. They may even have to cut production from its current level, as Iraq has been using unsound methods to pump the amount of oil which they are currently generating.


Natural Gas

The picture for natural gas (NG) is even worse. As of February 14th, NG storage stood at 1,168 billion cubic feet (Bcf), down by 203 Bcf from the week previous. This was 868 Bcf less that a year ago and 436 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,604 Bcf. In an article in The Oklahoman, Tony Say, president of gas marketing company Clearwater Enterprises said he expects NG reserves to reach an all-time low of 600 Bcf by the end of the season. Bruce Bell, Chairman of the Mid-Continent Oil & Gas Association's Oklahoma Division, warned that once you get down to 700 Bcf there are serious doubts as to how much gas can be withdrawn. The nation's gas reserves are stored in underground caverns, where there must be a certain amount of gas to create enough pressure to force the reserves out.

Raymond James & Associates, in a recent report on natural gas, points out that NG production will continue to fall by 1.0 -1.5% per quarter for the foreseeable future. They warn that even if production returned to the feverish pitch of 2001, it would take three to six months before the new production would begin to slow down the natural declines in existing wells.30 Yet the NG rig total has hovered between 800 and 900 for the past year; at least 100 less than the number needed to meet national demand, according to Bruce Bell. Despite rising NG prices for the last couple months, work has begun on only 15 new wells. And according the Lehman Brothers, Canadian gas production is continuing to fall by as much as 4%. And this drop will coincide with a 500 million cubic feet per day decrease in NG exports to the U.S. Canadian NG demand rose in 2002 by 2 to 3% from the previous year. Net exports to the U.S. are expected to fall by 5% in 2003. Based on all of this data, the NG crunch of this year could lead to an NG crisis a year from now.


Black Blade: An interesting article though I don't necessarily agree with all of it the report does expose much of what I have been warning. 1) For all practical purposes OPEC has reached "peak" production ("Hubbert Peak"); 2) rehabilitating Iraqi wells, infrastructure, and drilling new wells will take several years; and 3) regardless of what happens between now and next winter, we are facing an energy (NatGas) crisis of epic proportions. Without abundant "cheap" energy there is no economy. Forget about an economic recovery � just ain't gonna happen!

mikal
(03/08/2003; 00:14:44 MDT - Msg ID: 99111)
Real returns are negative after factoring in inflation but more rate cuts loom
http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/07/news/economy/merrill_fed/index.htmGold is poised to look even better to institutions and individuals eyeing real returns, safety and liquidity. With or without rate cuts, money supply increases or currency devaluations. "The dollar is the key". That statement has really been overused- to whitewash financial frauds, imbalances, inequities, abuses, and oversights, including transfer of wealth to China and banksters, government officials and speculators worldwide. Again, watch gold hold it's own despite the dollar, the yuan, euro or yen. But cutting rates can only feed gold demand, IMHO. And with the Fed caught between a rock and a hard place, raising rates would feed investment demand as well.

CNN/MoneyWeb
Merrill now expects Fed cut
Spurred by a surprisingly bad jobless report, bank's economists predict cuts in March and May.
March 7, 2003: 4:02 PM EST
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -Excerpt: "On Friday Merrill Lynch became one of the first major Wall Street firms to predict that the Federal Reserve will cut short-term interest rates at its policy meeting scheduled for March 18.
Kathy Bostjancic, Merrill's trading desk economist, and David Rosenberg, chief North American economist, in a brief research note said the Labor Department's surprisingly ugly report on Friday of 308,000 losses in non-farm payrolls in February will spur central bank policy makers to action this month and again in May.
The economists said they expect the Fed to cut its target for the federal funds rate, the overnight lending rate banks use as the basis for prime rates, to 1.0 percent from 1.25 percent in March and to cut rates to 0.75 percent at its May 6 meeting.
That, Bostjancic and Rosenberg said, would probably be the lowest the fed funds rate would go.
"If further stimulus is needed, the Fed will start buying intermediate and long-term Treasury securities," they wrote."
goldquest
(03/08/2003; 00:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 99112)
***380.20***
Yes I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold and I did it because of a misunderstanding! It all started back in 1960 when I decided to be an aviator. After 12,000 + hours of the high pitch whine of turbine engines and the ungodly racket that helicopters can create, over the years my hearing is all but trashed! Being the vain person that I am, I had rejected seeking help for my hearing. I first noticed that it was getting serious when I had an early morning flight and was running late. I decided to stop at a popular fastfood joint for a quick breakfast. After placing my order, the kindly little 'ole lady said: "You can get supersized for 39 cents more." What I thought she said: "You can get circumcised for 39 cents more." My answer: Lady, I don't care if you're doing it for free, I don't want it done! Besides, I'am already running late!"
Now about the Portugal gold. My broker called one afternoon and wanted to know, "how would I like to own 30 tonnes in Potugal gold?" What I thought he said: "How would I like to own 30 tums and a portly gals toad?" Thinking this guy has completely lost it, or he has the worst sense of humor in the world, I decided to play along with him. "Sure," I said. Just take the funds out of my account and have the items placed on my doorstep in the morning! Well! The next morning when I went out the door, I-I-I am still in shock! My account has been cut in half and I am scheduled for hearing aids next week.
Mr Gresham
(03/08/2003; 00:30:27 MDT - Msg ID: 99113)
physicalman, Buena Fe
BF: It was about time for our traditional Trek story: "hyperinflate those drives scotty, that's an order."

"But I'm givin' her all I can, capt'n. I canna give her na more!"

(Also, your "from the prison to the palace". Ain't that just it!)

Then physicalman gives us another viewpoint: Passing GO and collecting $200. (Notice they've never inflated Monopoly prices? Think the Fed has a hand in?)

I played Monopoly all summer in 3rd grade with a friend. I had the 3 greens, but he was convinced his Boardwalk & Park Place would win. Eventually.

I just let him keep on trying to prove it, and he ran up over $200,000 owing to me. Imagine if we'd had derivatives!

Happy Birthday, Br'er Mike! And many, many more.
Black Blade
(03/08/2003; 00:52:44 MDT - Msg ID: 99114)
Venezuela oil crisis spills into U.S.
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2003030700066g3169&SA=Latest%20News
Snippit:

More than 12,000 employees have been fired from the state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA, the largest company in Latin America. Exports from this major oil supplier to the United States are down to a trickle, causing Americans to feel Venezuela's pain whenever they pay at the gas pump. And by most professional assessments, Venezuela's petroleum industry - once the fifth largest in the world - is in a shambles, posing a major foreign policy challenge for Washington at a time of heightened nervousness over fragile oil supplies from the nations surrounding Iraq. Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, once valued at more than $100 billion, has virtually imploded. Most of its technical and managerial "brains" have been dismissed because of a political dispute with President Hugo Chavez. "The petroleum people are saying that if they all went back to work tomorrow, it would be six weeks just to get local gasoline supply back online and at least six months to get exports back to normal levels," said Antonio Herrera Vialant, general manager of the Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce. "That's the best-case scenario." Almost no one remains at the company with the expertise to negotiate complex export contracts, calculate advantageous long-term oil deals and tweak higher production from aging fields. Even the company's sophisticated computer system is shut down because no one knows how to run it.

Doom-and-gloom scenarios abound among Venezuela's opposition. But to hear Chavez describe it, there is no problem. At first, he insisted, "There is no strike," even when almost all national commerce and business ground to a halt on Dec. 2. PDVSA workers joined the strike shortly afterward, and strikers demanded that Chavez step down and call new elections. He ignored them and has insisted repeatedly to national television audiences that the oil industry is getting by just fine without the fired professional staff. "There was some expert, I don't know where, in Houston, who said that it would take Venezuela four to six months to reach 1 million barrels (of daily production). We did it in 18 days," Chavez said during a Feb. 16 address. "We are now surpassing 2 million and are moving toward 3 million barrels per day. Well, as you know, they often get it wrong out there in the world." But some foreign petroleum-industry analysts, many of whom live far from Houston, describe the president's rosy assessment as the stuff of fantasies. Oil production is little more than half of the peak levels of 3.3 million barrels a day reached before the strike, they say. Production fell more than 90 percent in December. Getting back to former production levels will be difficult because the country has permanently lost at least 10 percent of its capacity from equipment damage, some analysts have said.


Black Blade: Many of Venezuela's marginal wells are permanently lost and much production will never be restored as a result of lost reservoir pressure. I do not see how Venezuelan production can ever be fully restored.

Gandalf the White
(03/08/2003; 01:41:14 MDT - Msg ID: 99115)
TAAA TAAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Listing UP-DATED as of SATURDAY, 3/8/03, 01:30 Denver Time !

NOTE to CONTEST entrants -- Please check to see if your "Prognostication" number has been taken in any newly entered guess, AFTER the above posting time, just before you submit yours, so that there are not any duplications ! Thanks <;-)

**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)

**** $404.5 **** Operative (3/4/03; 13:21:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98861)

**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)

**** $399.0 **** Ananse (03/06/03; 21:16:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99033)

**** $398.0 **** Montana (03/07/03; 13:17:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 99092)

**** $392.5 **** physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824)

**** $388.8 **** Believer (3/4/03; 17:29:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98891)

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (02/28/03; 06:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98581)
**** $385.4 **** slingshot (02/27/03; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98555)

**** $381.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (02/27/03; 10:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98525

**** $380.2 **** goldquest (3/8/03; 00:29:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 99112)

**** $378.0 **** Mountain Top (02/27/03; 17:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98543)

**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)
**** $377.7 **** Roccoco (3/4/03; 18:59:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98902)

**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)

**** $372.7 **** Noble1 (03/03/03; 20:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98819)

**** $371.0 **** J-Bullion (03/07/03; 14:10:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 99095)

**** $369.5 **** Moegold (03/07/03; 09:43:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 99074)

**** $369.0 **** Goldilox (03/07/03; 18:18:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 99101)

**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)

**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)

**** $362.4 **** Boilermaker (3/4/03; 15:25:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98876)

**** $360.8 **** VanRip (03/03/03; 19:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98814)

**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)

**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $354.7 **** RILEY (03/06/03; 13:11:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 99016)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $344.0 **** monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787)

**** $340.0 **** kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)

**** $335.2 **** Bizkit (03/07/03; 15:31:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 99096)
===
THINK about it over the WEEKEND and then MAKE your PROGNOSTICATION --- TUESDAY Noon is the DEADLINE !!
<;-)

Gandalf the White
(03/08/2003; 01:57:06 MDT - Msg ID: 99116)
I just don't UNDERSTAND ......
T.C. --- I have a QUESTION !!
There is not any pressure on anyone to be able to make longterm financial plans --- things are just rosy, say the CNBC cheerleaders, the stockmarket is going to turnaround in the second half (not sure which year, as they don't say that !), the world is almost totally in PEACE, except minor little things in the West Bank, nothing is troubling anyone except the price of gasoline is going up each week and it is colder than it should be at this time of the year, which causes more people to have less to spend on food and other luxuries, SOOOO why do you think that the number of entries in the POG Contest are soooooooo slow in being made ?
Well it is certainly not the SLIGHT VOLATILITY of the POG, afterall, $10. interday moves are impossible in this type of market, YES ?
Oh, well, I shall just have to get my sleep now because I will be in all night Monday and early Tuesday fielding the hundred entries that are going to arrive !
Now TO BED !
<;-)
ElGordo
(03/08/2003; 02:18:36 MDT - Msg ID: 99117)
Iraq has long range drones?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-603370,00.htmlA REPORT declassified by the United Nations yesterday contained a hidden bombshell with the revelation that inspectors have recently discovered an undeclared Iraqi drone with a wingspan of 7.45m, suggesting an illegal range that could threaten Iraq's neighbours with chemical and biological weapons.

US officials were outraged that Hans Blix, the chief UN weapons inspector, did not inform the Security Council about the drone, or remotely piloted vehicle, in his oral presentation to Foreign Ministers and tried to bury it in a 173-page single-spaced report distributed later in the day. The omission raised serious questions about Dr Blix's objectivity.

"Recent inspections have also revealed the existence of a drone with a wingspan of 7.45m that has not been declared by Iraq," the report said. "Officials at the inspection site stated that the drone had been test-flown. Further investigation is required to establish the actual specifications and capabilities of these RPV drones . . . (they) are restricted by the same UN rules as missiles, which limit their range to 150km (92.6 miles).

Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, told the Security Council in February that Washington had evidence that Iraq had test-flown a drone in a race-track pattern for 500km non-stop.
_____________
The cat and mouse games - go on and on.
Woodie
(03/08/2003; 02:58:13 MDT - Msg ID: 99118)
Gold contest **** $358.5 ****
Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold. It was not for myself as I was only acting as a front for a certain purchaser who wished to remain anonymous at this time. You see, the story of how I came to be in this position starts many years ago when I was a junior member of a firm that was advising a certain South American Central Bank on its options of how to diversify their gold reserves. I was of the opinion that they should sell only a small portion of their gold holdings, if any at all. After the snickering stopped, I was informed that my thinking was quite old fashioned, and I just didn't understand the way the new economy worked. Now that the country's currency has lost 80% of its value, they are starting to come back around to the old fashioned way of thinking.

I'm sure you understand my reason for reluctance in naming the country involved as a certain International Monetary organization would not be pleased if they found out that some of the paper currency they have been pumping into this country has been making its way back into hard assets.
DummyANI
(03/08/2003; 07:08:56 MDT - Msg ID: 99119)
Response to Zhisheng #99067
from a printing-press policy to a revival of a gold standard systemWe are already in a deflation economy all over the world. According to a textbook of the economy, the most reasonable policy overcoming the deflation is the reflation. So I believe that FED is starting a printing-press policy very deliberately, but no economic indicators indicate the printing-press policy clearly at present. Further, the devaluation of USD is started from last December, and US Government stimulates public finances. All the above policies are aimed to overcome the deflation, but no economic indicators indicate their effectiveness at present.
Jim Sinclair predicted that FED will adopt a gold standard system at June, 2004. If this is true ( I believe so), the present deflation will be deepened for a while, then FED publicly admits to start a printing-press policy. At the next stage, according to the printing-press policy, the deflation begins to diminish in its effect, I believe that FED switches its monetary policy from the printing-press policy to the new gold standard.
In order to stabilize the new gold standard system, FED must accumulate a more gold secretly.
According to sector #97924, EU has 12,431 tonnes (12,461 minus 30) of gold, and USA has officially 8000 tonnes of gold. I think 8,000 tonnes are very small and disadvantage to the new gold standard, the Government of USA inevitably tries to accumulate a more gold at a lower price. If I am a member of FED, I will accumulate at least 20,000 tonnes of gold.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen. D-Ani.
silvercollector
(03/08/2003; 07:20:43 MDT - Msg ID: 99120)
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB5F3C0CD%2DFA3B%2D4208%2DAE78%2D1D519F730A57%7D&siteid=mktw
What is Buffett's "state-of-the-union address" on Saurday??"A sharply rising gold price will most likely ignite J.P. Morgan Chase's $26 trillion of derivatives into some kind of blow-up mode," Murphy tells me on the eve of the full Warren Buffett state-of-the-union address, due from that insurance executive's shareholders on Saturday
silvercollector
(03/08/2003; 07:22:27 MDT - Msg ID: 99121)
What is Buffett's "state-of-the-union address" on Saturday??
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB5F3C0CD%2DFA3B%2D4208%2DAE78%2D1D519F730A57%7D&siteid=mktw"A sharply rising gold price will most likely ignite J.P. Morgan Chase's $26 trillion of derivatives into some kind of blow-up mode," Murphy tells me on the eve of the full Warren Buffett state-of-the-union address, due from that insurance executive's shareholders on Saturday"
silvercollector
(03/08/2003; 08:01:42 MDT - Msg ID: 99122)
****444.00****
Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold. There lurks danger of monumental proportions and the world is witnessing the biggest game of chicken, ever.

The US/UK is set to strike for the sake "of a better world" and Iraq (son of Hussein) has promised the "unleasing of hell"

Secret top-level meetings warn of retaliations that cannot be foreseen or stopped. Mr. Bush now seeks advise from his "superior" and repents, an imminent sign that the time draws near.

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
misetich
(03/08/2003; 09:21:30 MDT - Msg ID: 99123)
U.S. CBO sees big deficits with Bush budget plans
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=DSOAR0O4AOI4QCRBAEZSFEY?type=bondsNews&storyID=2346735Snip:

WASHINGTON, March 7 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush's plans for new tax cuts and more spending on Medicare and the military would swell federal budget shortfalls by $2.7 trillion over the next decade, congressional analysts said on Friday.

In its annual review of the president's budget, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Bush's policies would turn an $891 billion cumulative surplus it otherwise predicts between 2004 and 2013 into a $1.82 trillion deficit.

********
Misetich

Oh yes the New Economy - prosperous time are here - Unemployment rising (forget the bogus BLS numbers- they count part-time jobs as employed amongst other erroneous data) The Phantoms Surpluses have vanished - poof! -
Reality is here and is here to stay - the power of the manipulators is disapperaing each and every day as the water dam is bursting - first it was the dot.coms; then Nasdaq, then interest bearing investments;
The Dow has started its descend toward its mean -
Housinb bubble has almost ran its course - though ANOTHER injuction is coming in a month or so via a Fed cut and another round of hoped refinancing

Government projected deficits are being understated - many items are not being included

The US $ has started its descend - ANOTHER 30% slow devaluation is in the cards - unless POOF! there's a crash

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?




misetich
(03/08/2003; 09:34:38 MDT - Msg ID: 99124)
****387.60****
It is I that bought the 30 tons of Portugul's gold though I'm still waiting for delivery - Wonder how long it will take - When I inquired recently I was told they were waiting for a counterparty Bullion Bank to deliver - After some gentle knudging I was told the Bullion Bank was waiting for their counterparty to deliver - After a small pause I was told the Bullion Bank counterparty (a mining company) had special agreements to defer their obligations for at least 10 years - and then I was asked if I would accept Gold Certificates instead of the physical - plenty of supply around

Somehow my goldenball tells me that it will be a long wait for my physical delivery

ANOTHER error on my part - should have booked my purchase through a reliable supplier such as USA GOLD!







misetich
(03/08/2003; 09:45:25 MDT - Msg ID: 99126)
US consumer credit expanded sharply in January
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=2346637Snip:

WASHINGTON, March 7 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers charged more to their credit cards and took out more car loans in January, pushing outstanding credit to its biggest gain in more than a year, the Federal Reserve said on Friday.

The Fed said consumer credit jumped by $13.2 billion in the month, a much larger gain than the $400 million increase Wall Street analysts had been anticipating.

December credit outstanding was also revised to a $2.0 billion gain, from the initially reported $4.0 billion decline -- what would have been the sharpest decline in 12 years. The original December figures had analysts concerned it was signaling the onset of a slowdown in consumer spending, one of the main drivers of the U.S. economy.

..........
Bob Brusca, chief economist with Native American Securities in New York, said the willingness to tap more expensive revolving credit was another sign of "consumer exhaustion."

"The consumer may be at the end of this spending binge," he said.

January's big gain in credit stood in contrast to 2002's credit trend. The Fed said consumer credit outstanding advanced at only a 3.5 percent rate in the year, the slowest annual pace since 1992.

On other other hand, consumers jumped at low mortgage interest rates in 2002 to buy homes or refinance existing mortgages. On Thursday, the Fed said home mortgage debt - credit to buy homes as well as home equity loans - rose at a 12.4 percent pace in 2002, the fastest since 1987. Analysts say some of the money taken out in home equity loans was used to pay down higher-rate credit card debt.
********
Misetich

The end of the road is near - no jobs and debts to pay. - its time to start selling some assets - just to service the debt

Got gold?
balzac
(03/08/2003; 09:47:50 MDT - Msg ID: 99127)
CONTEST ESTIMATE****$351.5****
Yes I bought the gold because I became alarmed at the rate that FRNs are losing value. For example I looked back in my daily notes and found that on 8 Aug. 02 the US dollar index stood at 108, on friday, the same index was at 98.
The loss of 10 index units in 7 months is an indication of the true inflation rate. My simple calculation is 12/7 times 10
which equates to 17%.
It is only logical to buy gold.

Balzac
misetich
(03/08/2003; 10:12:28 MDT - Msg ID: 99128)
The Failure of Central Banking - S. Roach -
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor0Snip:

The European Central Bank has blown it again � easing by as little as possible in the face of an increasingly treacherous economic climate. Yet this action should not be viewed in isolation. It is emblematic of a deeper problem that has afflicted central banks over the past dozen years: While the monetary authorities experienced great success in taming inflation, their record in tempering the perils of deflation borders on abject failure. The Bank of Japan has led the way. The risk is that the Federal Reserve and the ECB are now following in its footsteps.
..........

There could well be a deeper meaning to all this. I have long suspected that central banks are guilty of having fought the "last war" � namely, inflation � for all too long. As the monetary authorities succeeded in squeezing inflation down to extremely low levels, market interest rates were quick to follow. That produced valuation support for equities that was then reinforced by the perceived interplay of a major technological breakthrough (i.e., the Internet) and the productivity-led saga of a New Economy. In other words, under certain circumstances, inflation targeting can spawn asset bubbles. As inflation all but vanished from the scene, the stars were in perfect alignment for just such an outcome in the late 1990s. The failure of central banks was to stick with an old target for too long and not recognize the need to shift their focus to a new target. By fixating on the narrow construct of CPI-based inflation, the authorities overlooked the perils of deflation that arose from a broader inflation of asset markets. My guess is that history will not treat that oversight kindly. Should the world continue to slide down the slippery slope of deflation, a reworking of central bank mandates could well be in order in the not so distant future.

...........
Misetich

The cost of ill conceived Central Bank policies and follies are just beginning to show as world economies are faltering

All On Boar The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?

MK
(03/08/2003; 11:28:02 MDT - Msg ID: 99129)
Reflections in a Golden Eye with Thanks for the Kind Birthday Wishes
Many thanks for the birthday wishes.

My earlier post did not communicate my thought very well. Here's a better version of the same idea. I removed the earlier attempt under the Doctrine of Owner's Advantage (smile). . . . .

- - - - -

All of us in some way want to be of service to our fellow human beings whether it be on the family and friends level, or have the opportunity, as I have, to serve on somewhat wider scale. Some claim that gold owners and advocates "cheer from the sidelines the demise of Western civilization," and that is an unfair claim. History is replete with examples of systems gone bad, politicians gone astray and economies gone to seed, so concerns along these lines are not only warranted but part of a healthy understanding of the human condition. Human institutions, human civilization is flawed precisely because it is 'human." We do not 'want' the economy to go into the tank, we simply 'recognize' that it could happen -- like it or not. As such, we all take comfort that we have done everything we can to protect ourselves and our families from such eventuality, and part of that preparation is gold ownership. (Thank you, Cometose) And that's the importance of this firm, this forum and all who are in one way or another connected with it (including my fellow posters) -- to help you prepare. All of the world's religions constitute a reaction to life's imperfections -- a recognition that sometimes we are carried by events instead of the other way around. Gold is simply an extension of those concerns into the world of real things -- an insurance policy against the frailty of human institutions. Gold, in this way, lends tangibility to an otherwise intellectual (and in some cases, spiritual) exercise. As I have said many times to many first-time gold owners, we should buy the metal to hedge the negative event and then we go on with our lives hoping that it will never happen.

Along these lines, I was reading a profile of Gary Hart this morning in the Rocky Mountain News -- one that explores the possibility of his running for president. In it, the story is told of Hart being questioned by a student after a foreign policy speech at Stanford Universtiy. The question pertained to the impending war in Iraq. In answering, Hart alludes to President Bush's many references to ridding the Earth of evil -- allusions which make him (Hart) 'nervous.' "It says in the book of Genesis, there will always be evil," says Hart who took his first degree in Divinity at Yale, "Our job is not to rid the world of evil; the president ought not to be even talking that way." There is a connection between Genesis and gold of which many of you are well aware -- a connection which runs as a thread from 'The Fall' and has special meaning in the complex economies and monetary system erected (and evolved) since 1971. I re-tell this story only to make my point -- which is a point about gold -- and share some the reflections I had on my 55th birthday.

Thanks again for the kind wishes, my friends and fellow goldmeisters. You made a good day even better.

- - - - - -

"There were about 150 things supporting gold today and it takes one story from the Khyber pass to flummox it."

Mitsui's Andy Smith, as quoted on the front page of the Financial Times this morning, on rumors of the capture of two of Osama bin Laden's sons.
21mabry
(03/08/2003; 11:50:06 MDT - Msg ID: 99130)
Incas
Had to read a text for class dealing with spanish conquest of the new world,the amount of gold and silver they stole from Incas and others was staggering,the book states what would now be some of the most beautiful and priceless gold art was melted into bullion.Huge rooms were filled with gold higher than a tall man could reach,maybe some of this gold is in some of the coins we have,makes you think how eternal gold is.Thnx physicalman for info on sterling
The Knife
(03/08/2003; 11:58:17 MDT - Msg ID: 99131)
****358.8****
Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it because I tried to corner the silver market back in 1980. That didn't work out so well and I lost a couple of billion buckeroos. Let me tell ya folks, times are very similar, and I believe that precious metals are going to get larger than a Texas bullfrog. If you happen to see a Brink's truck and notice something glittering in the back, it's probably that gold shipment on it's way to my ranchero. Remember what I always said............

"PEOPLE WHO KNOW HOW MUCH THEY'RE WORTH GENERALLY AREN'T WORTH TOO MUCH"

Nelson Bunker Hunt
a nation of one
(03/08/2003; 12:51:52 MDT - Msg ID: 99132)
movements in price of gold

First, I am not writing this post for everyone who might possibly be reading it, but for those few, who, like myself, seek improved ways of thinking about things, and therefore of doing things.

Second, having tentatively concluded that the real price of gold is, for all practical effect, generally determined by actions taking place in the futures contracts markets, a number of further conclusions can be reached.

One of the most important realizations that one may come to is that words, such as 'struggle' -that tend to be perceived as attributing human-like characteristics to a non-human concept, such as gold, and to the events surrounding it- are to be avoided when possible, since they imbue actions related to gold with attributes of personality, which is a mistake of perception, since neither gold nor its market is a person, and is in no way made up of a static group or static groups or persons, and therefore has no personality and cannot really act as people act. The best understanding can come only as a consequence of recognizing a thing for what it really is. Endowing it with human-like characteristics, in order to understand it metaphorically by comparison, only obscures its real nature and confuses one's own faculties of perception.

Below is my proof of this. (The proof involves a number of other points, which are the main purpose of this post and which may be of use to you.)

If you will consistently observe the ino.com charts for the price of gold, as described in this paragraph, you will see something worth noticing. Specifically watch the 5-minute candlestick chart with the 12 hour moving average for one day (each day being 'today'), and also watch the 5-minute candlestick chart with the 2 hour moving average for one day (also each day being 'today'). It is good to print these out at the end of each day so that you can look at them side by side and compare them easily.

These two charts reveal a relationship that has a significance. What you will see, if you observe either of them by itself, is that it is often not hard to decide what form the moving average is taking. In other words, you can tell pretty clearly whether the red line (the moving average) is probably going to continue to go up, probably going to continue to go down, or whether it is leveling out. When it begins to level out, it can either change direction, or, instead, it can un-level out and then continue in the direction that it was already going.

But whenever it does change direction, first it does level out, sometimes briefly and sometimes lengthily, and you can see quite clearly that many trades await these occurrences. However, some traders apparently prefer to follow the 2 hour moving average chart, in deciding when to buy or sell, as this moving average seems very closely reflective of the probable immediate future movements of the blue figures, which represent the ongoing trades. You can see that many of the strongest, grouped-together buys or sells occur just after the 2 hour moving average has leveled out and is first beginning to decline or go up.

By comparing these two charts, you can really see easily that, if the trades that are in harmony with the 2 hour moving average are not also in harmony with the 12 hour moving average, they tend to be mistaken.

Therefore observe the consistency of the correctness of the trades which are in harmony with both the 2 hour moving average and the 12 hour moving average. These, rather consistently, though not always consistently, are not mistaken.

When you view these events in this way, a number of things come together in the mind, and others lose their relevancy. For one thing, it ceases to be necessary, or even beneficial, to think of these trades as being the result of a struggle between groups, even though that word can be thought of as being a somewhat valid metaphor for these events. For here is a better explanation. It requires more complex knowledge, but it is more accurate. And so it will lead to a clearer understanding of what is going on in the gold market, from moment to moment. The next few sentences seem obvious but they need to be said. At any given time all of the people related to a market are either more likely to buy, more likely to sell, or most likely to do nothing, and the actions of these people will be determined by how they perceive events to be unfolding. Now, since a buyer may change his probable action and become a seller merely because of events, so likewise may a seller also become a buyer without delay. Also a man who has decided to do nothing may suddenly decide to do something. And therefore these realities make this type of market an abstract field consisting not of teams but of an amorphous, perpetually concluding mass of individuals either having acted already and presently deciding when to buy or sell next, and of those not having acted but who are about to.

Even though consequences are brought about, and are suffered, by traders on account of the actions of the other parties to their contracts, these people are not in fact struggling against one another, even metaphorically, in the major sense, but, independently of each other, each individual is trying to make one decision intended to produce an outcome desirable for himself. This is the main thing these people are doing. Any 'struggle' or 'fight' is ancillary to this and is very far subordinate to it. Any man who focuses his greatest energies into concentrating on a perceived fight, in these matters, will consistently tend to do himself a profound injustice.

Two things can be seen from this view. One regards sellers, and the other regards buyers. The principle tends to be the same for both, though perhaps with minor differences. Those acting against the ongoing trend tend to take quick action, without due consideration. Those whose forces may be depended upon to enforce the larger trend, and also the ongoing trend, tend to wait until the others have expended their efforts, and this is consistent with knowledge deliberation. So in this sense I am incorrect, and there is a fight. But it is a fight, not against buyers and sellers, so much as a process of natural selection taking place on the level of biological evolution, between those who act without premeditation, and those who actions tend to take place without due thought. Thus markets function as thorough ways to benefit the fittest and eliminate the less fit, with regard to these criteria.

One thing that ought to be realized by each trader is that there need be no dishonesty or manipulation occurring for these events to take place (the events themselves do not prove they are not taking place, but neither do they require it). The events themselves can be entirely explained simply by the fact that the referred-to, numerous individuals involved are acting together in similar ways, without having conspired or having agreed beforehand to do so, but merely by observing as individuals these principles which I have outlined here, and by making their decisions accordingly.

If anyone cares to point out flaws in this, I would be grateful.
Toolie
(03/08/2003; 13:29:31 MDT - Msg ID: 99133)
Can you manipulate the manipulators?
Click here...... to give TC greif & a laugh simotanouslyYou all are a smart bunch, I know it! Answer this question. Once the excuse for the poor economy of the USA can no longer be blamed on IRAQ, What is the new excuse?
a nation of one
(03/08/2003; 13:37:24 MDT - Msg ID: 99134)
footnote
I wrote: "Even though consequences are brought about, and are suffered, by traders on account of the actions of the other parties to their contracts, these people are not in fact struggling against one another, even metaphorically, in the major sense, but, independently of each other, each individual is trying to make one decision intended to produce an outcome desirable for himself. This is the main thing these people are doing. Any 'struggle' or 'fight' is ancillary to this and is very far subordinate to it. Any man who focuses his greatest energies into concentrating on a perceived fight, in these matters, will consistently tend to do himself a profound injustice."

*** It could also correctly be said that the main means of winning the 'fight' -if speaking metaphorically of a 'struggle'- consists of properly directing one's greatest efforts toward accurately forming this decision.


a nation of one
(03/08/2003; 13:39:11 MDT - Msg ID: 99135)
To Toolie (03/08/03; 13:29:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 99133)

The answer to your question rests in the mysteries not yet comprehended by the masses.
a nation of one
(03/08/2003; 13:42:19 MDT - Msg ID: 99136)
correction
"...and those who actions tend to take place without due thought."

Should read, "...and those who actions tend NOT to take place without due thought."
a nation of one
(03/08/2003; 13:45:24 MDT - Msg ID: 99137)
...

I have to leave now. But I will be back later and will make reply to any responses.
Toolie
(03/08/2003; 13:46:17 MDT - Msg ID: 99138)
A Nation of One
May I request that you sharpen your pencil Sir?
Toolie
(03/08/2003; 14:24:30 MDT - Msg ID: 99139)
A Nation of One-All
A Nation of One-
I suspect that poor timing was at play in my last post. All respect intended! Thanks for your response.

All-
For the rest of us, what will be the new excuse for the poor state of the economy?
ElGordo
(03/08/2003; 14:47:21 MDT - Msg ID: 99140)
N Korea threatens to "Torch" New York, Wash DC, Chicago
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/03/07/1046826533281.htmlNorth Korea would launch a ballistic missile attack on the United States if Washington made a pre-emptive strike against the communist state's nuclear facility, the man described as Pyongyang's "unofficial spokesman" claimed yesterday.

Kim Myong-chol, who has links to the Stalinist regime, told reporters in Tokyo that a US strike on the nuclear facility at Yongbyon "means nuclear war".

"If American forces carry out a pre-emptive strike on the Yongbyon facility, North Korea will immediately target, carry the war to the US mainland," he said, adding that New York, Washington and Chicago would be "aflame".

A pre-emptive strike on Yongbyon is one of the strategic options in the crisis over North Korea's nuclear arms program. The US has deployed 24 long-range bombers to the Pacific base of Guam capable of launching such a strike.

Mr Kim, who has written a text studied by North Korean military leaders, predicted North Korea would restart its reprocessing plant to make weapons-grade plutonium this month.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/08/2003; 15:03:33 MDT - Msg ID: 99141)
MK packs a wealth of gold investment knowledge into 175 pages. Yours for $5.95.
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Operative
(03/08/2003; 15:09:13 MDT - Msg ID: 99142)
@ Toolie, What are you talking about??
"...the new excuse for the poor state of the economy?"

My dear man, whatever is it you are refering too? The economy according to 90% of the "experts" and "talking heads" will surely strengthen in the last 6 months of the year. It MUST be so, because they continue to say so. Just look at the government figures, there is no inflation, unemployment remains steady at about a healthy 6 %. Havent you heard that all those that "really want to work" already have jobs? GDP is still positive, a little weak perhaps, ok...a whole lot of weak if you remove the government spending from GDP figures, but one must look on the bright side of the figure yes? What current excuse is used to describe the current economy? I hear little excuse, mostly cheerleading of why things are looking good for the near future. Many of the corporations are coming in at or above the expectations. OK, so they are consistently lowered expectations but hey, things are not bad, excuses are not needed, according to the Grandmaster of the Universe, we have simply entered a tiny, wheeny, little, "soft spot" and soon will once again be on our way to a glorious raging bull market. Buy the dips dont you know! And the word new only conjurs up the NEW Paradign that we are entering, the new accoutanting procedures, (some very creative)and the soon to come new, even lower than the last 11 cuts, drop in interest rate. Also adding to the excitment of future gains is the underpinning of all speculative markets by the huge derivative markets, where any and all possible failures are properly insured, doubly insured,and even more so, by counterparties that will simply absorb all risk. So cheer up and just go along for the ride and stop reading all that Warren Buffet stuff. The guy is old, his thinking simply outdated, and I am sure will be proven wrong in due time. Do not let those with "negative thinking" cloud your once in a lifetime chance to buy great values such as Kmart @.15, Enron under a buck. There is a whole list of cheap stocks that one can add to his/her 201K account. And oh, this falling dollar thing. That is really good news because now all those USA companies that produce products can sell more of them at a competitive price to overseas markets. You know, all those products we are famous for making, like....
well, I will have to get back to you on that one. Anyway, just remember, things are really looking up.

(just a little tongue in cheek this saturday)
Operative.
ElGordo
(03/08/2003; 15:42:22 MDT - Msg ID: 99143)
Criminal charges for JPM?
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&box=ad_box_all2&tag=energy∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APmkTQRU.Q2l0aWdyNew York, March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. helped Enron Corp. hide billions of dollars in debt with disguised loans and other accounting gimmicks, says a report by a federal bankruptcy examiner investigating whether the banks are responsible for investor losses.

The banks, the two largest in the U.S., were singled out in the report for playing ``a significant role'' in the deception that led to Enron's collapse. Neal Batson, an Atlanta lawyer appointed by the Justice Department to study the energy company's finances, said the banks were complicit in a technique that let Enron report $10.2 billion in debt on Dec. 31, 2000, when it actually owed $22.1 billion.

``The real question is did the banks know that Enron was making misleading financial statements to investors'' or were they careless, said Michael Simons, a St. Johns University law professor. Deliberately taking part in deception would expose the banks to criminal charges as well as civil damages, he said.

Batson's findings may provide ammunition to investors who have sued the banks and other defendants for more than $25 billion in damages. The examiner will issue another report in June that will examine the liability of the banks, as well as law firms and accountants that advised Enron.
_______________
If JPM is hit with criminal charges I don't know if they will be
able to continue in business. They may go under. Taking all those
complicated derivatives with them. Yipes.
TownCrier
(03/08/2003; 15:59:51 MDT - Msg ID: 99144)
Return of the Masked Man
http://www.mips1.net/mgan.nsf/Current/85256C3300290CD485256CE2004F7671?OpenDocumentI've lately received another email from our anonymous gentleman who wanted to have his latest comments and musings passed along with a post to the forum. Without further ado...
R.
___________________________________________
Tim Wood at mineweb.com, in a piece entitled "Yandal Hedge Predicament Isolated" [see url above], has again addressed the issue of gold hedging in general, and Barrick's hedge book in particular.

See also
http://www.webfn.com/en/news/news.html/?id=31666
for an article entitled "Gold: Hedging Causes Uneases Among Investors", Mar 07, 2003-13:06, also commenting on the same subject matter as the Tim Wood article.

It is stated in the latter piece that none of the 19 bullion counterparties to the Barrick hedge position have the "unilateral and discretionary rights to terminate the forward sales contracts" in the way Newmont's counterparties have such right. In summary, the above referenced pieces indicate that the Newmont counterparties represent a small minority of counterparties holding such rights.

This may be, but the following thoughts come to mind. If such be the case, the relevant central bank, under normal accounting rules, cannot look to the bullion bank (who according to Barrick can defer physical delivery up to 14 years) to satisfy repayment and must therefor register such earlier physical gold loan as "nonperforming", causing reduction in reserve numbers. However, please note that Barrick was not forthcoming about the above described aspect of its almost totally opaque hedge book until after questions arose as a result of the first Tim Wood article addressing the subject.

Please note further that Barrick merely denied THAT FORM of right in the counterparties, without describing (or denying) some other equivilent right in the bullion bank type counterparties, which right would cause the right in the bullion bank to obtain the physical or its cash equivilent such that the central bank loan could be described in accounting terms as "performing", without writeoff.

I find Barrick's most recent response to be evasive in limiting its statement to the Newmont type situation, rather than addressing the much larger issue of any and all rights which might or might not exist in counterparties to the Barrick hedge position. Of course were Barrick to address the larger issue, some or much of the opaqueness of its hedge book would disappear.

It makes no economic sense for any counterparty to allow unilateral deferral of "delivery", far in the future, in the sole discretion of a mining company such as Barrick. The only thing that makes economic sense is if the counterparty to the hedge of a mining company such as Barrick, economically protects itself from such unilateral action. Therefor, if such counterparty does not have such early "right to break" the contract, as with the Newmont counterparties, then the inference is that such counterparty will have some equally powerful, or important (similar) contractual right. How the foregoing might, if at all, impact the pending Blanchard suit, continues to be interesting. EOM.
___________________________________________
slingshot
(03/08/2003; 16:09:58 MDT - Msg ID: 99145)
Operative Msg# 99142
Competitive ProductsPizza, Burgers and Fried Chicken.
Eat mo'chicken.
Eat mo'beef
The Power of Cheeeeeeeeeese.:0)
Slingshot-------------<>
Antipodean Bug
(03/08/2003; 16:41:42 MDT - Msg ID: 99146)
Is gold moving at all?
A glance at the $index shows a decline in the dollar
over the past year from around 120 down to 98 ish -
a fall of 22%.
A similar comparison of the nominal gold price shows
a move from around $280 to $350 ish - or around the
same 20% - 25%.
There may be some interesting inferences we can draw from
this:-

1. The powers that are "managing" the price of gold
are perversely acknowledging gold as having a legitimate
monetary role. If they truly believed it to be a
"barbarous relic", they would not be managing the
correlation so closely.

2. Any attempt to continue to manage the relationship
between the dollar and the nominal gold price hinges
on being able to control both prices. If the price
of gold has been able to be contained hitherto by
creative inventions and manipulation on Comex, the
same tricks will not be possible in managing the
dollar. Too much of the currency is now in the hands
of foreigners - who are becoming reluctant holders.

I suspect we won't see the next major move up in gold
until the nexus between the gold price and the dollar
is obviously broken. Only when the world sees the
long established link between gold and the dollar as
a "barbarous relic" will gold forge its own
independent trendline up.

Interested in others' view on this.
Leigh
(03/08/2003; 17:19:20 MDT - Msg ID: 99147)
Another Silverado Story
http://worldnetdaily.com/biznetdaily/There's another Silverado story in today's WND. Things just keep getting more and more bizarre.
The Invisible Hand
(03/08/2003; 17:38:26 MDT - Msg ID: 99148)
The D-monster is out of the bottle
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2003/03/09/ccbuffit09.xml&sSheet=/money/2003/03/09/ixcity.html
SNIPS:
At the heart of Buffett's attack is his claim that in many cases it is impossible for investors to have any idea what exposure many banks have to these complex financial instruments.

Given the mind-bogglingly complex nature of many contracts and the fact that credit derivatives are usually not held directly on a published balance sheet, calculating the exposure of banks and insurers is a horrendous task. Buffett believes it is impossible: "When Charlie [Munger, Buffett's business partner] and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don't understand how much risk the institution is running.

Even Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, has praised derivatives for reducing risk.
"I think he [Buffett] is talking about his own experience at General Re. There have been frequent predictions of doom about the use of derivatives, but is important to note that the net benefits far outweigh any negatives to come out of the market," says Jerry del Messier, the managing director of Barclays Capital.
That may be so. But in Buffett's words, the "derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle" and we still cannot be sure it's not a monster.
Operative
(03/08/2003; 17:43:10 MDT - Msg ID: 99149)
@ Antipodean Bug
" Is gold really moving?"

You bet! Tons moving from Central Banks to parts & persons unknown. Additional tons moving to China, India, and Aisa.
Backpacks of gold are moving in Japan where people are trading in paper money for the real physical gold. While I have no numbers to throw out I feel confident in saying that those of some substance are moving larger amounts of fiat to thier local gold/silver supplier. Yes, I think gold is moving, quickly, silently, covertly into hands who have a pretty good idea of future events. The paper price of gold? It too will really move at some point. Probably around the time when those left holding wheelbarrels full of paper money realize there is little physical gold to be found. But keep this quiet as I have yet to fill all my matchboxes as of yet.
Goldilox
(03/08/2003; 17:47:48 MDT - Msg ID: 99150)
Hackworth's latest status update
http://www.sftt.org/cgi-bin/csNews/csNews.cgi?database=Insider%20Notes.db,nd=viewone&op=t&id=7&rnd=513.8700783782965Col. David Hackworth's latest Penagon INTEL brings the following. Even the A-Team can't agree on the cost of the war to the US budget.

snippit:

The Army Chief of Staff and the Deputy Secretary of Defense engaged in an amazingly public catfight over the resources and manpower required to occupy Iraq. For all that, neither one of them, or anyone else in the Pentagon or the White House will tell Congress how much this will cost, how long it will take, or who is paying for it.

Rumsfeld has started making the same statements in every interview and press event "If it comes to war?" and "No decision has been made yet."

They say to understand politicians you have to know when they are lying. It?s not that hard? when you see their lips moving, that?s the killer clue.

The Kansas City Star says the Pentagon is violating a 1998 congressional mandate that blood be taken from every deploying soldier to serve as a baseline for later analysis of exposure to chemicals. This law was imposed in order to help prevent the fiasco of the Pentagon?s handling and analysis of Gulf War Syndrome 11 years ago.

Instead of collecting blood, the military health policy is to have each soldier complete a one page form where he or she answers true-false questions about his or her general health. Sounds like a plan to cover somebody. Probably not soldiers and veterans, though.

Koppel finally ran an indepth piece last night on the Project for a New American Century, their 1997 roadmap for a new Middle East, and the PNAC charter members' new day jobs. Jobs like like Secretary of Defense, his deputy, the Vice President, his special assistant, NSC Middle East Director and the Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs. Surprising, I guess, unless you?ve been reading this column and other quiet reminders of the hijacked ship of state inside the beltway.

It isn?t about oil, we are told. Not directly, but is it about the dollar, and propping up the ever weaker US economy by ensuring global business stays greenback and not Euro-backed?

If Bush team takes us to Baghdad, they will need to do it before the economy tanks, the weather gets hot, and our soldiers? families start to ask the hard questions about the difference between patriotism and "just following orders." Time is also needed to adapt the spin to whatever the aftermath looks like, and get the re-election campaign going.

end snippit
ElGordo
(03/08/2003; 20:02:58 MDT - Msg ID: 99151)
Iran Nuclear Crisis developing
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,430649,00.htmlWith war in Iraq looming and North Korea defiantly pursuing its own nuclear program, the last thing President Bush needs is another nuclear crisis. But that is what he may soon face in Iran. On a visit last month to Tehran, International Atomic Energy Agency director Mohamed ElBaradei announced he had discovered that Iran was constructing a facility to enrich uranium � a key component of advanced nuclear weapons � near Natanz. But diplomatic sources tell TIME the plant is much further along than previously revealed. The sources say work on the plant is "extremely advanced" and involves "hundreds" of gas centrifuges ready to produce enriched uranium and "the parts for a thousand others ready to be assembled."
---------
The new discoveries could destabilize a region already dangerously on edge in anticipation of war in Iraq. Israel � which destroyed an Iraqi nuclear plant in Osirak in a 1981 raid � is deeply alarmed by the developments. "It's a huge concern," says one Israeli official. "Iran is a regime that denies Israel's right to exist in any borders and is a principal sponsor of Hezbollah. If that regime were able to achieve a nuclear potential it would be extremely dangerous." Israel will not take the "Osirak option" off the table, the official says, but "would prefer that this issue be solved in other ways."
_________________
I can't remember the world in a more chaotic situation than it
is right now. I was reading today that there is talk of removing
Tony Blair from office among labor party officlas. Cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war.
Waverider
(03/08/2003; 20:27:06 MDT - Msg ID: 99152)
Nikkei threatens to drop below 8,000
http://www.forbes.com/work/newswire/2003/03/08/rtr901377.htmlSnip:
"Tokyo stocks could plumb new 20-year lows this week as war worries and a host of domestic factors discourage buyers. Analysts said the Nikkei average could drop below 8,000, a key support level, after falling 2.62 percent last week to 8,144.12 -- its lowest close since March 1983. Some investors may look for bargains early in the week, but the market's longer-term prospects are clouded by the prospect of a trade-disrupting war on Iraq, worries about North Korea's missile and nuclear programmes, and a weak economic outlook. News that major market player Nikko Salomon Smith Barney -- owned by Citigroup and Nikko Cordial Corp -- had been cited for stock manipulation will add to the gloom. Shares of Nikko Cordial, Japan's third biggest broking house, dropped 12 percent when the news broke on Friday.

In 1991, the Nikkei surged 17 percent in a six-week "relief rally" that began with the onset of the U.S.-led campaign in Iraq. The U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 18 percent. But traders said stocks may fall this time if Washington presses ahead with a war without the support of key allies. With only three weeks to go before year-end book-closings for most Japanese companies, the drop in share prices is bad news for banks, which are saddled with mountains of bad loans, as lower valuations on their stock holdings will erode their capital. Analysts say many banks' capital adequacy ratios -- a key gauge of financial health -- could fall below the eight percent global requirement if the Nikkei approaches 7,500. At Friday's close, combined unrealised stock losses at the top seven banking groups stood at around 5.84 trillion yen ($50 billion), according to Daiwa Institute of Research. Investors are also concerned about the ability of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to deal with any financial crisis.

Waverider: Mayday, Mayday, Mayday...this is Captain Koizumi of the Japanese Economy...we are approaching Nikkei 7,500 and investor panic...passengers are abandoning ship...repeat...abandoning ship....passengers are donning *Gold* lifejackets and *Gold* lifeboats but we are in short supply...Mayday, Mayday - we request immediate assistance...
seagull
(03/08/2003; 21:29:50 MDT - Msg ID: 99153)
****$357.5****
To be placed in a position where I must confess to my actions is very difficult for me: you demand this, yet for me to do so will almost certainly cause me harm. You can expect to hear of my 'suicide' or of my death in an aircraft crash in the near future, for I will have broken the rules and must suffer the consequences.

You see, I am an insider; I work for the cabal, and it is my role to ensure that as much gold as possible is taken out of circulation and deposited into our coffers. I have been behind all of the CB sales as the mystery buyer for many years now. Why, you might ask, are we so obsessed with accumulating if possible, ALL the gold in existence?

Of course we know gold is not a 'barbarous relic', but it suits our cause for you to believe so.

Of course we know of the totally untenable situation created by fiat currencies - we have planned this from the beginning.

Of course we know that the only possible solution is a form of currency which adapts the original gold standard to the digital age.

Of course we must be in control of this new currency.

Of course we must accumulate all the gold, regardless of price, for this purpose; but of course, it suits us to keep its price as cheap as we possibly can!

I plead with you not to inform on me so that I may live.
Black Blade
(03/08/2003; 22:54:21 MDT - Msg ID: 99154)
Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Aided Enron Shams, Report Says
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&box=ad_box_all2&tag=energy∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APmkTQRU.Q2l0aWdy
Snippit:

New York, March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. helped Enron Corp. hide billions of dollars in debt with disguised loans and other accounting gimmicks, says a report by a federal bankruptcy examiner investigating whether the banks are responsible for investor losses.

The banks, the two largest in the U.S., were singled out in the report for playing ``a significant role'' in the deception that led to Enron's collapse. Neal Batson, an Atlanta lawyer appointed by the Justice Department to study the energy company's finances, said the banks were complicit in a technique that let Enron report $10.2 billion in debt on Dec. 31, 2000, when it actually owed $22.1 billion.

``The real question is did the banks know that Enron was making misleading financial statements to investors'' or were they careless, said Michael Simons, a St. Johns University law professor. Deliberately taking part in deception would expose the banks to criminal charges as well as civil damages, he said.

Black Blade: Well whaddya know? The heat get turned up a notch on Citigroup and Morgan. Hmmm�

Black Blade
(03/08/2003; 23:54:44 MDT - Msg ID: 99155)
Natural Gas Deficit Worrisome to Texas Oilman
http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=5949.topic
Snippit:

Mar. 6--Natural gas supplies are depleted to the point that some storage operators have run out of inventories, Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens said Wednesday. "They told me they can't get anything else out," said Pickens, the featured speaker at a luncheon hosted by the International Society of Energy Advocates in Tulsa. Pickens warned that if gas supplies keep falling at the present rate, more storage operators will lose the ability to pull supplies from underground storage facilities. The situation could lead to supply shortfalls this winter. "We could find ourselves with real problems," Pickens said.

As gas supplies fall, the pressure inside storage facilities declines. If gas supplies drop below a certain level, the capacity to withdraw inventories from storage will be limited due to insufficient pressure. U.S. supplies are nearing that point, which is around 600 billion to 700 billion cubic feet, Pickens said. Extremely cold weather has sapped the nation's inventory of gas, which is used to heat most American homes. A lack of drilling activity has also contributed to the shortfall. "I don't think I'll ever see gas prices below $4 again," Pickens said. "We're in a new world." The recommended storage level for the winter heating season, which begins Nov. 1, is 3 trillion cubic feet. By season's end, which is April 1, the industry prefers to have 1 tcf left in storage, enough to rebuild supplies for the next season. U.S. gas supplies are down 48 percent from last year, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. With 1 tcf left in storage, experts say supplies will likely fall to 600 bcf by April.


Black Blade: Interesting T. Boone Pickens article. I have also been told the same thing by some industry people. Some storage is in effect depleted leaving only cushion gas. The draw from this week will be above average and next week's draw could be strong as well. We could close in on 600 bcf within two weeks and still have another couple of weeks worth of draws. We will certainly close heating season at all time record lows, the question is how low? The current outlook as far as drilling activity and E&P budgets suggest that there will be little improvement this summer. We are being set up for a disaster next winter. One analyst I know has said that at current drilling and projected drilling combined with declining output we could easily deplete NatGas storage by the end of December this year (mid-winter). Very profitable potential for many of us holding energy and precious metals, but Yikes!

Gandalf the White
(03/09/2003; 00:15:06 MDT - Msg ID: 99156)
TAA TAAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA UP-DATE on the POG contest !!
Listing UP-DATED as of SUNDAY, 3/9/03, 00:10 Denver Time !


NOTE to CONTEST entrants -- Please check to see if your "Prognostication" number has been taken in any newly entered guess, AFTER the above posting time, just before you submit yours, so that there are not any duplications ! Thanks <;-)


**** $444.0 **** silvercollector (3/8/03; 08:01:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 99122)

**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)

**** $404.5 **** Operative (3/4/03; 13:21:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98861)

**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)

**** $399.0 **** Ananse (03/06/03; 21:16:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99033)

**** $398.0 **** Montana (03/07/03; 13:17:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 99092)

**** $392.5 **** physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824)

**** $388.8 **** Believer (3/4/03; 17:29:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98891)

**** $387.6 **** misetich (3/8/03; 09:34:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 99124)

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (02/28/03; 06:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98581)
**** $385.4 **** slingshot (02/27/03; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98555)

**** $381.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (02/27/03; 10:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98525

**** $380.2 **** goldquest (3/8/03; 00:29:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 99112)

**** $378.0 **** Mountain Top (02/27/03; 17:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98543)

**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)
**** $377.7 **** Roccoco (3/4/03; 18:59:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98902)

**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)

**** $372.7 **** Noble1 (03/03/03; 20:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98819)

**** $371.0 **** J-Bullion (03/07/03; 14:10:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 99095)

**** $369.5 **** Moegold (03/07/03; 09:43:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 99074)

**** $369.0 **** Goldilox (03/07/03; 18:18:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 99101)

**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)

**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)
**** $362.4 **** Boilermaker (3/4/03; 15:25:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98876)

**** $360.8 **** VanRip (03/03/03; 19:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98814)

**** $358.8 **** The Knife (03/08/03; 11:58:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 99131)

**** $358.5 **** Woodie (3/8/03; 02:58:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 99118)

**** $357.5 **** seagull (3/8/03; 21:29:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 99153)

**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)

**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $354.7 **** RILEY (03/06/03; 13:11:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 99016)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $351.5 **** balzac (03/08/03; 09:47:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 99127)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $344.0 **** monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787)

**** $340.0 **** kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)

**** $335.2 **** Bizkit (03/07/03; 15:31:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 99096)
===
YES, Sunday is the "day of rest"! BUT, you can think about the CONTEST and make-up your mind and DO IT ! ENTER TODAY !
<;-)


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/09/2003; 00:36:15 MDT - Msg ID: 99157)
Ally yourself with a gold broker that is knowledgeable and also cares...
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

newsletter

In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals' founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:

"[M]uch of this issue is devoted to oil, inflation, international politics and gold. . . . . Though the dollar continued to rise against most international currencies during the past month, most currencies ( including the dollar) were depreciating against real goods. . . . AND IT IS THE TREND THAT HAS ECONOMISTS CONCERNED. Crude oil, which must be purchased with dollars, is being blamed as the chief culprit. When the dollar price of oil rises, it fans the inflationary fires of nearly every nation in the world. All of this could at some point inspire a dollar rebellion among the nations of the world, with both oil producers and oil consumers capable of finding fault with the dollar simultaneously . . . . In such a case gold, of course, would become one of the primary beneficiaries and the dollar could go into a tailspin."

ABCs bookTake note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

News & Views is available to our clientele only. However, the latest issue is back from the printer and available to prospective gold investors who request an INFORMATION PACKET on one-time only basis. We invite your request.

If you would like to get a feel for the thinking that forms the basis for market conclusions like the one featured above, take advantage of the offer to include THE ABCs of GOLD INVESTING: PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH THROUGH PRIVATE GOLD OWNERSHIP. A prompt with ordering information will come up after you submit your request for the INFORMATION PACKET.

ge
(03/09/2003; 04:41:41 MDT - Msg ID: 99158)
Mogambo Guru Sez: A Guaranteed, Golden Opportunity
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=2984.
ge
(03/09/2003; 04:48:41 MDT - Msg ID: 99159)
Right now, O'Higgins is only interested in gold
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/5290493.htm.
gusto
(03/09/2003; 06:22:02 MDT - Msg ID: 99160)
Contest entrance
359.2
Usul
(03/09/2003; 07:15:50 MDT - Msg ID: 99161)
Adam Faith: June 23, 1940 - March 8, 2003
http://www.users.globalnet.co.uk/~msmith03/adam/adamnews.htmDuring the final run-up of the stock market bubble that peaked in 2000, the Money Channel went live with consumer-oriented financial programmes on cable, satellite and the internet. It started off well enough, attracting substantial advertising and sponsorship revenues. It had been put together by Adam Faith and chairman Paul Killick, and floated on the Alternative Investment Market in May 1999. Killick is reported to have said: "I know what to say, and Adam knows how to say it".

Money Channel's shares launched in July 1999 at 22p, and the stock market / dot com bubble had taken them up to 522.25p by January 2000. But the bubble began to deflate, and Money Channel fell with it, its share price falling 30% in one day to 16p, on February 20, 2001.

In an interview at the Guardian Edinburgh International Television Festival, Adam Faith said:

"My shares that I had had for nothing were suddenly worth about �30m. And in what seemed a blink of an eye they were back to wallpaper."
[http://www.accountancyage.com/news/1126039]

Adam Faith stepped down as an executive director after the company reported a loss of �4.9m for the 6 months to September 30, 2000.

In the words of Adam's 1959 hit record:

What do you want if you don't want money?
What do you want if you don't want gold?
Say what you want & I'll give to you darling
Wish you wanted my love, baby
Waverider
(03/09/2003; 08:12:52 MDT - Msg ID: 99162)
Markets set for week of turmoil
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2834197.stmSnip:
"With war against Iraq now possibly only a week away, share, bond, currency and commodity markets are set for some of the most turbulent trading in recent history. Last week, shares slumped around the world, and the once-mighty dollar plumbed a series of record lows. Wall Street has lurched up and down, but like other markets has lost 10% of its value this year alone. In the absence of any major market-moving corporate news, most traders are expecting further falls this week, despite repeated assurances from some that the effects of any war have been more than factored in. In the short term at least, analysts predict a stampede for safe havens. This means obvious hideaways such as the gold market..."

Waverider: Looks like an entertaining week ahead!
Max Rabbitz
(03/09/2003; 08:41:08 MDT - Msg ID: 99163)
****$349.60****
I CONFESS. I BOUGHT IT. Now get me off this rack Gandalf and bring me some Merlot. Yes, it was I who bought the 30 tonnes of Portuguese Gold. I had hoped to keep this quiet for as long as possible as my plans require some degree of secrecy. I intend to establish a new Central Bank and a new currency, the Rabbitz. It will be backed by 5% more gold than whatever the Euro is. I use the word "backed" loosely. The people may look at my gold .....but no touching. Once every year my stash will be audited. I had planned on the Anderson Firm but have been assured there are suitable replacements. Meanwhile my Rabbitz will multiply.
misetich
(03/09/2003; 09:14:14 MDT - Msg ID: 99164)
Economy Can No Longer Count on the Consumer
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/09/business/yourmoney/09WATC.htmlSnip:

With consumer debt near record highs, it would not be much of a surprise if consumers did stop buying. But they have been remarkably resistant to changing their bingeing ways. Even the devastating bear market in stocks has not shaken them.

..........
Also worrisome is a shift in the source of the funds available to consumers. In the 1990's, Mr. Hastings said, consumer spending was fueled by growing wages, a secure job environment and gains in real estate and the stock market. But since mid-2000, consumer spending has been bolstered by mortgage refinancings, home equity loans and falling retail prices. None of those sources can be relied upon much longer.

"I have seen a more significant breakdown in consumer spending during the last few months," Mr. Hastings said. "While consumer spending in dollars looks O.K., when you look deeper, there are trouble signs. And that is likely to turn into lower unit volume pretty soon."

...........

"The risk is, what else in the economy can pick up the slack if the consumer no longer participates enough?" Mr. Hastings asked.
.........
Certainly not businesses, which are reducing their expectations based on sluggish demand. Last Thursday, for example, Intel narrowed its sales forecast for the first quarter. In January, the company expected sales of $6.5 billion to $7 billion in the period. Now it expects sales of $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion.

State and local governments cannot help. Short of cash, they must cut their spending. Only the federal government is expansive.

Household wealth is in decline, Mr. Hastings said, and so is the number of people employed. Consumers are finally figuring out that the only way to save money in such an environment is to stop spending.
**********
Misetich

Consumer spending decline - a nightmare for Wall Street-

All On Boar The Gold Bull Express

misetich
(03/09/2003; 09:53:33 MDT - Msg ID: 99165)
Credit Bubble Bulletin, by Doug Noland
http://prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.aspSnip:

International financial flows are accounted for in the "Rest of World" (ROW) sector. While the hype of the hyper-productive U.S. economy is unrelenting, foreign investors are in dramatic retreat. Importantly, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the U.S. has collapsed. FDI surpassed $100 billion for the first time during 1997 ($109.3 bn), then jumped to $179 billion during 1998. The escalating financial and economic Bubble enticed $289.5 billion of FDI during 1999 and the high-water mark $307.7 billion for year-2000. Speculative FDI was stemmed, however, by the bursting equity/NASDAQ Bubble. FDI sank to $130.8 billion during 2001 and collapsed to last year's $46.0 billion, the lowest level since 1992.



Yet, our massive trade deficits create international dollar balances that must find their way to U.S. financial asset markets. Hence, Rest of World acquisition of U.S. Credit Market Instruments surged last year to $416.9 billion. This compares to 2001's $320.6 billion, 2000's $225.9 billion and 1999's $139.7 billion. Last year, ROW increased holdings of Agencies by $126.1 billion, Treasuries by $99.3 billion, and U.S. Corporate Bonds (includes ABS) by $166.9 billion. It is worth noting that ROW made net Agency purchases of $11 billion during 1998 and $63.5 billion during 1999. Importantly, we do not expect FDI to the U.S. to recover for many years. And that the dollar has sunk in the face of massive purchases of U.S. securities portends ominous dollar vulnerability. If there is any waning of demand for Agencies and U.S. Corporates (especially asset-backs), we have a serious problem. The day our foreign-sourced financiers move to liquidate U.S. securities, we are faced with a calamitous dislocation. As goes Structured Finance, so goes the dollar.
**********
Misetich

With the current US $ devaluation underway - and it is expected that this leg down will result in another 30% drop - and the US economy heading (continuing) another recession ( its already there if you take government spending out of the GDP) foreigners will be taking a bath on US investments - unless of course they cash in before the crash - which of course is a self-fulfilling prophecy

All On Board On The Gold Bull Express



1340cc
(03/09/2003; 10:00:53 MDT - Msg ID: 99166)
****366.50****


I confess I bought the 30 tones of Portuguese Gold. I had bought property in Mexico right next to Bob Chapman and needed to build a compound to protect my family and my 30 tones of PG when all the citizens from Mexico had moved to the USA and the citizens from the USA had finished moving to Mexico. I then borrowed the money from Bob to build my compound with the understanding when gold hits $1,500 per ounce I will sell some and pay Bob back at a nice interest rate. We actually have a tunnel between our property and share a vault to store our gold and other supplies our families will need to survive the coming war and the failure of the fiat money if not the additional fall of the US government as we know and love it.

I also plan on a little lipo and a nip and tuck here and there when the POG starts to sky rocket. Why not with the world starting out fresh (lets not think about having to wear nuclear suits for years to come) I want to look my best! Hummm, maybe I'll even put in a bunker with a gym in it.

P.S. I have also put away a little to bribe someone to answer my post #99071 about ticker info. I even said "Please". Do you think a few pounds or so will be enough?
misetich
(03/09/2003; 10:06:00 MDT - Msg ID: 99167)
Bye-Bye Pension
http://www.fortune.com/fortune/investing/articles/0,15114,428139,00.htmlSnip:

Millions of American workers are sure to see a large slice of their retirement income go up in smoke. It may not happen right away, but the groundwork is being laid right now.
.............
As FORTUNE reported in December, the lethal combination of a cratering stock market and plunging interest rates has played havoc with the finances of corporate pension plans. For the first time in years, the plans don't have enough money set aside to pay for the $1.2 trillion or so in benefits that they owe current and future retirees. The size of the shortfall? Some $240 billion, or more than half of what they earned in 2002. That shortfall is forcing companies to pour billions of additional dollars into the plans and is whacking billions more off earnings.
.........
*******
Misetich

Every which way you turn its a mess - from vanishing retirements, to lower corporate earnings to higher government deficits, to higher energy costs, to vanishing portfolios, to higher unemployment to higher bankrupticies, to higher debt levels, to housing bubbles, to lower investment income, to higher corporate bonds risks default

What a mess - and its not over yet

All On Boar The Gold Bull Express
misetich
(03/09/2003; 10:23:44 MDT - Msg ID: 99168)
Consumer Spending - Has hit the wall of worries yet?
VariousSnips:

Soaring Health Costs

Health-care costs in 2002 jumped more than many companies projected.

Although health-care benefit costs have soared for several years now, nearly half (45 percent) of employers reported that their health-care costs exceeded their budgets in 2002, according The Eighth Annual Watson Wyatt/WBGH Survey, released by Watson Wyatt Worldwide and the Washington Business Group on Health (WBGH).

Just 13 percent of the corporate respondents said the cost came in under budget.

Health-care costs are expected to jump another 15 percent this year.

Many employers in the survey are looking to pass those increases on to others. Just 32 percent of the respondents said they are able or willing to absorb increases in medical-benefit costs, compared with 52 percent who said so in 2000.

...........

Energy Prices

Shutting Marysville cave boosts heating fuel price

http://www.freep.com/money/business/cms7_20030307.htm


Fill 'er up, before it's gone -
Gas shortages are hitting some Valley stations, and it could worsen by the weekend.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0307Gas07.html

Bus, Subway Fares Hiked to $2 in N.Y.C.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=519&u=/ap/20030306/ap_on_re_us/mta_fares_4≺inter=1


OPEC to Struggle to Lower Oil Price as Iraq War Looms

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmiGQRU2T1BFQyB0

Insurance

Wave of rising insurance costs swamps business, consumers

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/3742969.html

Housing

Property Taxes on the rise due to increased real estate values

********
Misetich

Every which way you turn consumers are being hit - disposal income is dwindling - as service costs are increasing - jobs get scarcer - and debts levels at all time high

All On Board The Gold Bull Express


R Powell
(03/09/2003; 10:51:26 MDT - Msg ID: 99169)
********* $361.4 **********
Okay, guys, yes, it was I who exchanged the current fiat for the 30 tonnes of gold from Portugal. I bartered the deal at the current exchange rate because I could. This is to say my payment was acceptable at the time of the exchange with the exact monetary amount determined at and by that time of purchase.

This determination of a constantly varying purchase price was necessary as the nature of my payment is suspect, ever susceptible to change, at the whims of the currency issuers, currency traders and those who daily judge its value or worth. Indeed, I paid with a debt that I had accepted from others!

To fully comprehend, you must understand that my payment was appraised more on the confidence and the follies of mens' actions than on any tangible worth. This is an innate condition of the payment, a reflection of the very nature of its creation and of the ever changing environment in which it exists. Like its creators, my fiat payment is mortal.

Why did I do this? I wished to transform a temporary, unstable man-made but currently acceptable medium of exchange into a tangible store of wealth. I sought to protect my earnings from the ravages, speculations and depreciations of man and time. Have I now irrevokably spent my monetary wealth on golden metal? No, not spent, just exchanged for safekeeping. You see, gold is always fungible for different monetary units of commerce. It little matters whatever acceptable form that becomes. My wealth is now impervious to harm and shall remain so until that time, should it arrive, when I must once again transform it into a vulnerable form of exchange. Remember, gold has always been able to buy money but, sometimes, money can not but gold!
TownCrier
(03/09/2003; 10:59:21 MDT - Msg ID: 99170)
79% recommend flight from dollar, grows from 30% previous week
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Top%20Stories%20World&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=worldtop&s=APmtbARVsRG9sbGFyTokyo, March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may fall for a fourth week in five as the rising threat of war with Iraq, a slumping economy and widening current account deficit dim the allure of U.S. assets, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Of 33 analysts, traders and investors surveyed Friday, 79 percent recommended buying euros against the dollar this week, even with Europe's common currency near a four-year high. Last week, 30 percent recommended such a move.

...the dollar may weaken to $1.12 per euro this week.

...``The dollar is in dire trouble,'' said Steve Pearson, chief currency strategist at HBOS Plc. ``There's nothing on the horizon to turn that around'' unless Hussein goes into exile and war is averted.

...Higher interest rates are also luring money to Europe. Even after the European Central Bank lowered its key borrowing rate to 2.5 percent last week, it is still 1.25 percentage points above the Federal Reserve's target interest rate. This difference in rates will keep the euro attractive once war breaks out, some analysts said.

--------(see url for full article)-----

Diversify. Add hard assets to your portfolio... add gold for the security of the ages.

R.
21mabry
(03/09/2003; 11:03:17 MDT - Msg ID: 99171)
coinage
Why cant the vending machine industry make a machine that excepts half dollars and metal dollars this would increase use of these two coins'some people dont even know what they are when you hand them a kennedy half.I cant believe vending machines that take credit cards are not in common use yet.want to blow someones mind show them a silver eagle or a gold coin they have no idea what it is or its worth.I showed a friend an silver eagle once ,he liked it and was willing to give me twenty bucks for it,I did not take it of course but I showed him its worth and where to get some,Most americans have no sense of the past ,my girlfriend had no idea when our national anthem written'sometimes people amaze me ,just some thoughts I needed to vent.Have a good week all Francis scott key war of 1812 during the seige of fort monroe outside of Baltimore if my memory serves me correctly.
R Powell
(03/09/2003; 11:40:13 MDT - Msg ID: 99172)
1340cc
CNBC ticker I don't have all the answers but I can help somewhat. Hopefully, someone else will fill in the holes.

The peoples' stock picking channel runs two tickers at the bottom of the screen. The top one is for equities traded on the Dow and the bottom is for those traded on the Nasdoggie. While the markets are active, the stock symbol and price are accompanied by a green or red arrow indicating a price gain or loss. If the stock has not moved up or down, the symbol and price are presented in black. Before the market open, the arrows are absent and the prices are in black print. These are the previous day's close, I believe, although some stocks trade worldwide. Also on the top line, market indicator numbers are occasionally given which track stock sectors. These are shown in black print and include the CRB (commodities) and a gold stock index- the XAU. Usually, immediately following this comes the commodities numbers, also given in black print but with no indictor of gain or loss. These include the stock markets' index number futures as well as grains, metals, oil products and the softs (cotton, sugar, orange concentrate, cocoa etc.) The commodity symbol is followed by a letter that identifies the particular month shown. The symbol for gold is CG (Comex gold) followed by a letter for the month. Immediately after gold comes SI followed by a letter. This is the important one to watch for as it is silver!
Hope this helps somewhat.
Happy weekend
Rich
P.S. please contact Usagold for my mailing address. You can forward my golden gratuity anytime after you finish moving to Mexico. I also accept silver. Thanks

Gandalf the White
(03/09/2003; 11:43:35 MDT - Msg ID: 99173)
LOOKS as if the FAST on the Draw RICH beat me to it ! <;-)
1340cc (3/9/03; 10:00:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 99166)
<<>>

P.S. I have also put away a little to bribe someone to answer my post #99071 about ticker info. I even said "Please". Do you think a few pounds or so will be enough?


1340cc (03/07/03; 09:36:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 99071)
Ticker Info. Please
On CNBC they run the "ticker" on stocks. I understand Red (arrow) is down, Green (arrow) is up. What do the colors white, black, gold and yellow mean? Most times these other colors appear near or after the market is closed. Sometimes there is an arrow other times not.

Sorry to bother you ladys and gentlemen with something so minor but I can't find anyone who knows the answer to my question.
====

Dear (is it Lady or Sir? ) 1340cc !! I shall accept your "BRIBE".
I am only able to answer a portion of your request for "Ticker Info." and therefore a couple of Ounces will suffice !!
From my minor time of watching the ticker, Green is indeed an Positive change in price of the stock from the prior CLOSE, and Red is a Negative change. The Black is when the price is UNCHANGED ! It does appear that AFTER the Close the colors of Gold and Yellow are to mean something, but I have not a clue!! PERHAPS, it has something to do with the AFTERHOURS trading ? Please send my Ounces in care of the T.C. at the USAGOLD Castle and he will be able to give it to one of the Hobbits for me. THANKS !
<;-)
goldfool
(03/09/2003; 12:11:54 MDT - Msg ID: 99174)
De Cabral de Alvares de Pedro
Chamo-me Cabral de Alvares de Pedro. Sou o grande, grande, grande, grande, grande, grande, grande, grande, grande, grande, grande, grande, grande, neto do explorador portugu�s famoso do mesmo nome. � eu quem "emprestei" o 30 tonnes de ouro portugu�s do Banco Central portugu�s negociar para temperos e outro riches de 'ndia. Sobre meu retorno a Nova Iorque, er, Lisboa, eu usarei o procedes da venda destes itens investir em ativos produtivos mais altos de papel compor meus ganhos. � muito para todos os partidos envolvido. Os 'ndios ficam muito ouro barato fabricar seuas j--ias para seuas massas, o Banco Central portugu�s recebe faz interesse no arrendamento de ouro enquanto manter ele como um ativo em seus livros, e eu fa�o interesse em topo do lucro que eu fa�o na venda da mercadoria. Eventualmente, terei acumulado dinheiro suficiente controlar um pa's grande, diz Brasil, por exemplo que eu descobri incidente numa escala em meu v�o a Calcut�. De certa maneira eu fa�o compradores de ouro todo sobre o mundo um favor grande por vender este ouro aos 'ndios porque mantem o pre�o de ouro barato direito ao redor de $350.00. O Banco Central portugu�s garantiu-me que h� abund�ncia de ouro ao redor de vender no mercado de outro deposita justo em caso h� uma cat�strofe internacional que aumenta exig�ncia de ouro e eu tenho que surgir com ouro f'sico mais caro recompensar o banco. Eles tamb�m p�em uma cl�usula em meu contrato que diz eu realmente nao tenho que recompensa�-los em ouro se isto aconteceria e que Euros seria somente bom. Estou t�o feliz com meu � os resultados desta transa��o eu realmente penso de mudan�a meu nome de meio a ouro. Cabral de ouro ...Pedro. ...Hmmmm.

For our non-Portuguese speaking viewers out there:

My name is Pedro Alvares Cabral. I am the great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, grandson of the famous Portuguese explorer of the same name. It is I who "borrowed" the 30 tonnes of Portuguese gold from the Portuguese Central Bank to trade for spices and other riches from India. Upon my return to New York, er, Lisbon, I will use the procedes from the sale of these items to invest in higher yielding paper assets to compound my gains. It is a great deal for all the parties involved. The Indians get a lot of cheap gold to fabricate their jewelry for their masses, the Portuguese Central Bank gets makes interest on the gold lease while keeping it as an asset on their books, and I make interest on top of the profit I make on the sale of the goods. Eventually, I will have accumulated enough money to control a large country, say Brazil, for example which I discovered incidently on a stopover on my flight to Calcutta. In a way I am doing gold buyers all over the world a big favor by selling this gold to the Indians because it keeps the price of gold inexpensive right around $350.00. The Portuguese Central Bank has assured me that there is plenty of gold around to sell on the market from other banks just in case there is a international catastrophe that increases gold demand and I have to come up with more expensive physical gold to repay the bank. They also put a clause in my contract that says I don't really have to repay them in gold if this would happen and that Euros would be just fine. I am so happy with my the results of this transaction I'm actually thinking of changing my middle name to gold....Pedro gold Cabral....Hmmmm.
Pan
(03/09/2003; 12:15:26 MDT - Msg ID: 99175)
Biggest Swiss daily newspaper worries about the swiss gold reserves deposited in USA
http://www.sonntagsblick.chThe Swiss mass daily newspaper "Blick" worries about the swiss gold reserves deposited in USA!

Frontpage: Because of Iraq war, danger for our gold!
Politicians ask for the return of the gold camped for Switzerland in fort knox USA. However, the swiss politicians seemingly don't know the exactly quantity of tons deposited in Amerika.

The parliamentarians will demand information from the Swiss government on next Monday.

Switzerland possesses approximately 2000 tons of gold

URLs: http://www.sonntagsblick.ch

and

http://www.sonntagsblick.ch/PB2G/PB2GA/pb2ga.htm?snr=47592

Gandalf the White
(03/09/2003; 13:19:11 MDT - Msg ID: 99176)
Sir Goldfool ---- aka "De Cabral de Alvares de Pedro"
goldfool (3/9/03; 12:11:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 99174)
===
Put a Price Prognostication with that ESSAY and I can enter both of them ! LOVE the language !!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/09/2003; 13:28:07 MDT - Msg ID: 99177)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAA -- Check out the LATEST POG Contest status!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe ABOVE link will take you to the last UP-DATE of entries ! THEN you can determine your lucky number and enter to WIN FREE GOLD and a little Silver too !
<;-)
goldfool
(03/09/2003; 13:41:19 MDT - Msg ID: 99178)
Gandalf the White
Pedro Alvares Cabral asks if $350.00 plus or minus about $8.00 would be a valid entry.
R Powell
(03/09/2003; 13:57:36 MDT - Msg ID: 99179)
ge // Pan
Ge, thanks for the links (99158, 99159). Both were great and Magumbo was especially fun this week.

Pan, didn't the Swiss receive their certificate of gold ownership in the mail? Please tell them not to worry as the certificate is surely on record and, even if that pile of bullion containing their gold has been temporarily leant out, there is a derivative contract with Barrick to insure the return of the gold. The absolute worst case scenario is that it may reguire some amount of time (not more than 15 years) to effect the return, however, there is an alternative cash settlement clause which can be initiated immediately. With cash in hand, the bullion can be purchased on any open market such as Comex. There is always plenty for everyone. At least, there always has been in the past.
slingshot
(03/09/2003; 14:11:43 MDT - Msg ID: 99180)
Siege Engine
Gold's Ascension It's time to go Slingshot, said Jachin. We have been here too long and we must return and tell the council of what we have observed. Besides the animals grow hungry and we can not forage the countyside for fear of being discovered. I agree with you, said Slingshot. We have done well and the council has need of our information. The three packed their belongings and started down the mountain trail. Going home gave them a good feeling eventhough their was a few days ride between danger and safety. They did not know they would greet the Army of the Goldbugs on the move.

The Lord of the Castle has seen the Army of the Goldbugs and could not believe his eyes as to the strenght in numbers it had amassed. Surely the time he was incarcerated the King would come to his aid and defeat this ragtag army.
What he saw gave him other thoughts. Now he too was to ride amoungst them. These derelicts and bagatelle group.

Bonfir, being one to walk with his warriors, left Gandalf and Stephen the Great, and went out on the Field of Years.
He looked at those who prepared for the march. In great detail the wagons and carts were hitched to their horse teams. Care was taken not to overload and the horses harness adjusted so not to injure on a long journey.
All around him he could feel team work and the sense of purpose. Yes, spirits were high as singing and laughter was about them.
Bonfir rounded a wagon and came upon setting that made him look twice. Ladies Waverider,Leigh, Siochaina, Magdelena and others sharpening swords. He stood back and watched them perform this task as any other warrior does before going into battle.

Bonfir returned to the gate and Gandalf,Sirs Howe and MK accompanied by Stephen the Great and Sir Black Blade, watched him come closer.

Are they ready? said Sir MK. As ready as they will ever be, said Bonfir.

Then we march! said Sir Howe.
NTgeo
(03/09/2003; 16:56:45 MDT - Msg ID: 99181)
***$353.50***
Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it because I want to help out all of the Australian gold miners who have got themselves into deep doggy poo by their incredibly stupid hedging practices. Perhaps due to my beneficience Sons of Gwalia, Newmont Yandal and the other silly idiots will survive and continue to provide Australians with jobs.
NEMO me impune lacessit
(03/09/2003; 17:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 99182)
potential derivativ-problems in Europe
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1045511461181&p=1012571727092NEMO
1340cc
(03/09/2003; 17:11:24 MDT - Msg ID: 99183)
Sirs Rich and Gandalf
Tis' a female I be. The lady part has been disputed for years. ;-)

The check um.... I mean the gold is in the mail. Although I do have a few 100oz bars of silver that are closer at hand.
Let's hope both soon start to be valued at their true price.

Thank you both for your helpful information.
R Powell
(03/09/2003; 17:15:05 MDT - Msg ID: 99184)
Silver sales in China
I sent the following letter to a silver analyst a few weeks ago and also asked here for information concerning the coming opening of the silver market in China.
May I ask again? Has anyone hear anything? TIA


Hello David,
I've been looking for a date for the opening of silver sales in Shanghai and finally found one posted on the gold-eagle forum by Captainhook. He claims April 1st as the date. I've asked at usagold for confirmation but have yet to get any reply.
I believe gold sales in China and earlier in Japan did have a positive effect on the price of gold. If the Chinese can afford gold, they can certainly buy a sizeable amount of silver. Maybe this will stop further silver exports, regardless of whether this silver is official dishoarding or just extra exportable silver due to increased recycling of silver from used film.
Can you confirm the April date? Also, will this be physical only sales or will this also include paper contracts??
Thanks for anything you can add.....
Regards,
Rich
R Powell
(03/09/2003; 17:21:54 MDT - Msg ID: 99185)
POG
POG is just beginning its weekly round the world value fixing and has started straight up, +$3.20. But don't go running out to look. Maybe if we all pretend not to notice, it will keep going up.
Dollar Bill
(03/09/2003; 17:28:44 MDT - Msg ID: 99186)
D, Nolan
In recent years, more investment banks and asset managers have sought banking powers using industrial loan corporation charters� Three states have such a charter, and several of Wall Street's largest investment firms have been drawn to Utah's. Morgan Stanley has one, and Goldman Sachs�applied for one in August. Merrill Lynch & Co. also has the Utah charter and is the state's largest bank by deposits ($55.9 billion!). The draw? An industrial loan charter grants companies most of the powers bestowed by a commercial bank charter, including the ability to accept federally insured deposits and make consumer loans. Its main restriction is a prohibition on accepting demand deposits if the corporation has assets of more than $100 million. But with the restriction comes a big benefit: The charter holder does not need to follow the Bank Holding Company Act and thus avoids supervision by the Federal Reserve Banks."
Mr Gresham
(03/09/2003; 17:41:18 MDT - Msg ID: 99187)
Dollar Bill
That was the passage that jumped out at me, too. Think they might be planning a bust-out, courtesy of FDIC & the taxpayers? Too many thieves, however, and the cupboard is bare when they get there. Oh well, grasp at straws. Any port in a...
wiley
(03/09/2003; 17:51:13 MDT - Msg ID: 99188)
Contest


***376.1***

Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, I have to fess up to it in order to enter this contest even though I didn't buy it, I think. Lots of folks buying the SAME Portuguese gold---sound familiar? How could so many buy so much with so little?? Think about it...Who really knows?? Well, the AUcourant know and now you can too. Gather round, a little closer, your attention please...thanks.
"There is no Portuguese gold"

Now, where's that Swiss gold; How about that USAGOLD?

Mr Gresham
(03/09/2003; 17:51:42 MDT - Msg ID: 99189)
Did someone say "Portugal"?
Spanish Caravan

Carry me, caravan, take me away
Take me to Portugal, take me to Spain.
I'm going to see you with fields full of grain
I have to see you again and again.

Take me, Spanish caravan
Yes I know you can.

Trade winds find galleons lost in the sea
I know where treasure is waiting for me.
Silver and gold in the mountains of Spain
I have to see you again and again.

Take me, Spanish caravan
Yes I know you can.


Is everybody in? Is everybody IN!?

Why did I buy it? Because the Lizard King told me to.
Waverider
(03/09/2003; 18:02:43 MDT - Msg ID: 99190)
Nikkei
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=c&t=1d&l=on&z=b&q=lWill we see sub 8000 tonight? BTW, POG up $3.50 in Sydney, and US$ Index 97.99.
Camel
(03/09/2003; 18:03:29 MDT - Msg ID: 99191)
Lebensraum
Concerning the recent discussion drawing parallels between the real estate bubble in Japan and here in the US ,there is one tiny little difference and that is that during the decade of the 1990's the population of the US increased by 12.5 % or about 27 million,while the population of Japan declined slightly . With population increases of this magnitude occurring in the US it is not surprising that the so called housing bubble has not burst.

This might also help explain why " growth" in domestic consumption in Japan has not been particularly robust.

Even with all its problems Japan is still a very wealthy nation and the antic-dotal evidence that I have heard is that the general public is still buying every imaginable type of gadget fom robo cat to the latest internet phone and the major problem they have is still the small size of the apartments.

World wide ,the population has continued to grow by about 8o million per year but mercifully the rate of increase is declining, With Saudi Arabia's recent admission that it can't seem to get its oil production up above 10 , those that think that the entirety of economic life can be explained by fluctuations in the money supply are in for a rude awakening,

About the only thing that can save this country now is if it returns to its true spiritual roots. Bush claims to be a Christian .Lets see him prove it.
sector
(03/09/2003; 18:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 99192)
The Phoenix Effect -- Gold Refuses to Die
It's up near $355...again. But didn't we just have it down to $350????After last week's bashing down to $350 and change gold has bobbed right back to $355 thereabouts. It almost looks as if the investment world in precious metals watches the currencies and LO! ...sees the dollar....sees it falling on a rather straight line since December 5th except for a few days of flat around Feb 5th.

It appears that this business of a bobbing gold price may presage the post attack domain. Will gold really be pressed down?

As a gold bashing cartel lieutenant ask yourself the following question:

Why bash the stuff and dump our meager bullion supplies when gold just keeps bobbing back up again? Why don't the gold bugs just GIVEUP?

What have we gained from all that work last week...except for a few days? All that gold we sold last week is gone, MOTU Greenspan [Master of the Universe]. When the war starts EVERYBODY over at TREAS wants us to sell even MORE...how does THAT make any sense?

Well son....We might NOT have to sell when the war starts....since we have everybody wrong-footed, we can just let it rise a bit to say...$400 and then set up a better defense position.

"I see", the now wiser Lieutenant said. "Let it rise and save some ammunition for a better defense". "Hmmmm. No wonder they call you the Master".
industrialGold
(03/09/2003; 18:19:13 MDT - Msg ID: 99193)
Mr Gresham (post 99189)
good one,
now only if gold can break on through (to the other side of 400)...

-industrialGold
sector
(03/09/2003; 18:34:28 MDT - Msg ID: 99194)
Russia Tries to Assure As Dollar Sinks
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESSMarch 9, 2003

Filed at 6:04 p.m. ET

MOSCOW (AP) -- The finance minister urged Russians not to shift their savings out of dollars Sunday, saying there is no need to worry about the U.S. currency falling dramatically despite recent declines.

Russia is the biggest dollar economy outside the United States, and by some estimates its citizens have tucked away as much as $40 billion in mattresses, closets and shoe boxes.

Most Russians keep their savings in dollars because of the instability of the ruble since the Soviet Union collapsed. The Russian government also is dollar-dependent, with most hard currency reserves held in dollars and the Russian ruble unofficially pegged to the dollar.

But the dollar has lost ground in financial markets lately against the euro and even the ruble, leaving many nervous about keeping their savings in dollars.

``We can of course talk about some speculative fluctuation, but I would calm everyone: the dollar will not fall dramatically, and to run away from investment in dollars is not necessary,'' Finance Minster Alexei Kudrin, who also is a deputy prime minister, told state-run Rossiya television.

Kudrin expressed confidence in the powerful U.S. economy and predicted ``no dramatic fall of the dollar.''

Bad news about unemployment in the United States last week sent the euro to its highest point against the dollar in nearly four years.

The euro hit $1.1064 in trading in Frankfurt, Germany, after news the U.S. unemployment rate increased to 5.8 percent in February as companies slashed 308,000 jobs -- the steepest one-month slide since November 2001. Economists had forecast gains of 20,000 jobs.

Economists attribute the rise more to dollar weakness than euro strength, since growth prospects are dim in Europe as well.

Kudrin's Sunday interview was on a weekly program aimed at reaching a wide audience. It marked the second time this year the minister has sought to ease concerns about the dollar's fall.
++++++++++++++++++++++++

Couldn't resist this one.

If one thkes a minute to think about the towering animosity towards BUSH seething in Europe what better way to protest the looming war is there available but to sell the dollar assets in a huge tidal wave.

Behold!...the unexpected and unintended consequenses of war.
Gandalf the White
(03/09/2003; 21:03:42 MDT - Msg ID: 99195)
Obrigado! -- Sir Goldfool !
goldfool (3/9/03; 13:41:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 99178)
Pedro "Gold" Cabral asks if $350.00 plus or minus about $8.00 would be a valid entry.
===
Well the Hobbits understand very little Portuguese and Angrit so they read the "above" as $350.0 plus AND minus $8. and accepted it, as the + $8 and the - $8. balanced out to be "add or subtract ZERO" and that means "no change from $350.0", SOOOOOO there you are $350.0 ! N�o um problema!
<;-)
Sundeck
(03/09/2003; 21:21:57 MDT - Msg ID: 99196)
****$370.0****
It was the romance! The barbarous relic of a past empire (sigh); "looted" gold received from the vaults of the Third Reich during WWII and not returned on the demands of The Allies; and gold mined from within Portugal over hundreds of years - rich fruits from the ground, like the soft, warming, reassuring glow of a fine port wine...

Well, it wasn't just romance, but there were also practical considerations. Here I was sitting on $560M lousy Ozzie dollars while the Australian current account was blowing out to more than 6% of GDP. (It's not just the US that has a foreign borrowing problem.) While the Oz is currently appreciating against the Dollar, it is losing ground against the Euro - the most-likely future world de-facto currency standard (taraaa...taraaa). Did I want to be on the losing end of this unfolding game? Even though my Ozzie paper was buying more and more dollars, I realised that those dollars were losing REAL value even faster. I had thought of just buying Euro assets, but then "Isn't the Euro just another fiat currency?" How can I be sure that it is not going to go the same way as the dollar in the future. After all, there is lots of uncertainty in the durability of the EEC, and the US is driving wedges in between the various European nations as though their life...er currency...depends upon it.

And then there is that mad, careering, megalamaniacal, US war machine that, having blundered halfway across the world looking for a stoush, is now determined to have one rather than puting its tail between its legs and scrabbling back home. Who can predict what will happen in this vying to and fro for the world's largest oil and gas reserves. Where men's egos are unrequited, only gold remains unscathed.

Gold seemed to be the best hedge against all of these uncertainties. Fortunately, Portugal was one of the last countries still willing to do a deal, and I was in the right spot at the right time. As a matter of fact, just as I was leaving I spotted a prominent investor, whose name rhymes with Little Miss Muffett, coming into the bank. I couldn't help but notice the embarrassment on the faces of the bank officials as they had to explain to this prominent and wise man that there was no more gold for sale. The bank was already fearful of the down-stream consequences of having sold so much, and the Portugese public were starting to ask penetrating questions.

So you see, it was I who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugese gold...and that is why.

;-)

Sundeck

ElGordo
(03/09/2003; 22:05:42 MDT - Msg ID: 99197)
N Korea tests missile
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Foreign Ministry said on Monday that North Korea had fired a land-to-ship missile toward the Sea of Japan, but that it was not considered a direct threat to Japan.

"We understand this was not a ballistic missile and therefore is not considered a direct threat to Japan," Foreign Ministry spokesman Hatsuhisa Takashima said.

He confirmed Japanese media reports that the missile was fired at around midday Japanese time (10 p.m. EST Sunday).
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/09/2003; 23:49:03 MDT - Msg ID: 99198)
Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

The dollar has been continuously devalued without stop for the past 57 years. It has
not appreciated against goods and services once -- not even once -- in that entire time period.
There are periods when this policy has not been fully reflected in the price of gold.

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

Marie Ballard Ext 106

We look forward to your inquiry.

 

Sundeck
(03/10/2003; 00:53:57 MDT - Msg ID: 99199)
Business failures could rise to 20,000 this year
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5-605455,00.html
Snip:

"
Business failures could rise to 20,000 this year
By Lea Paterson, Economics Editor



A RAFT of gloomy data will this week point to deterioration in the economy, with business failures soaring, growing concern about corporate earnings and falling confidence among service sector companies.
According to a report out today, as many as 70,000 businesses could fail in the next three years, with bankruptcies set to soar to levels not seen since the last recession. The report from BDO Stoy Hayward, the accountant, predicts that in this year alone more than 20,000 companies could go to the wall.

The number of failing businesses is expected to rise further in 2004 and 2005 as the longer-term implications of the latest bout of economic uncertainty hit home. In 2005 almost 25,000 businesses are likely to find themselves unable to continue, BDO predicts.

Shay Bannon, BDO's business recovery services partner, said: "In many industries, we are now seeing the full impact of the economic slowdown that started three years ago." The manufacturing and construction sectors look set to bear the brunt of the losses, according to BDO. In 2003 there are likely to be 3,400 business failures in manufacturing and 2,500 in construction.
"

Sundeck:

Lots of bankruptcies. No, not in the US, but across the pond in the UK. I suspect we will start hearing about Australia's faultering economy soon...current account deficit at record levels, record household debt, housing boom (or bubble?), rising Ozzie dollar puting pressure on commodity exports, stock market at four-year lows. The "miracle" economy falling to its knees? It's probably all Saddam's fault and things will get better after the war...a loooong time after the war. Fasten seat belts on the gold express!







Belgian
(03/10/2003; 01:04:49 MDT - Msg ID: 99200)
@ Pan # 99175
*Very* important posting, Sir ! Unfortunately, only one reaction to it.
Thanks Pan.
ElGordo
(03/10/2003; 01:23:46 MDT - Msg ID: 99201)
Strange times indeed
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmwcHBToVS5TLiBFWashington, March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve may opt for unconventional tactics, such as direct purchases of Treasury notes, to fight deflation should a possible war with Iraq weaken an already flagging U.S. economy.

Word that the nation lost 308,000 jobs in February raised odds that the Fed next week will cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to 1 percent, the lowest since July 1958. Even that may not be enough to keep the economy growing if a war starts and takes too long to resolve, some economists said.

``Another rate cut will do little to support the economy,'' Merrill Lynch & Co. chief economist David Rosenberg told clients last week. A new strategy involving purchases of intermediate and long-term Treasury securities ``could soon be put in place,'' he said. Rosenberg put the odds of a recession at 50 percent and predicted a second rate cut, to 0.75 percent, by May.

A central bank move to buy 10-year Treasury notes would lower interest rates on those securities, as well as on corporate bonds and consumer mortgages that are priced off of government yields, and pump more cash into the banking system. Economists consider such measures unconventional because the Fed hasn't targeted Treasury note yields since World War II.

Both Chairman Alan Greenspan and Governor Ben Bernanke have said the Fed could switch to purchases of longer-term Treasuries as its main overnight bank lending rate approaches zero.

``A central bank whose accustomed policy rate has been forced down to zero has most definitely not run out of ammunition,'' said Bernanke, who is in charge of economic research at the board of governors, in November. ``One relatively straightforward extension of current procedures would be to try to stimulate spending by lowering rates further out along the Treasury term structure'' through direct purchases of notes or bonds.
ElGordo
(03/10/2003; 01:37:46 MDT - Msg ID: 99202)
Japan on the brink
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmxIwxKlSmFwYW4gTokyo, March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Japan may be forced to buy stocks after the Nikkei 225 Stock Average's plunge to a 20-year low threatened to erode the capital that banks and insurance companies need to stay in business, investors said.

The government may use public pension money to buy stocks, and the central bank may expand its plan to buy 2 trillion yen ($17 billion) of shares from banks to limit their investment losses when they close their books at the March 31 fiscal year- end, investors said.
__________
Pension fund money to buy worthless stock?
Now thats a plan.
Golden Bear
(03/10/2003; 04:28:15 MDT - Msg ID: 99203)
U.S. Weakening May Push Fed to Buy Government Notes....
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmxzkxS5VS5TLiBX"... A central bank move to buy 10-year Treasury notes would lower interest rates on those securities, as well as on corporate bonds and consumer mortgages that are priced off of government yields. It also would put more cash into the banking system. Economists consider such measures unconventional because the Fed hasn't targeted Treasury note yields since World War II ...."

GB: And also flatten the yield curve to try and hide growing inflationary forces from the Fed's printing press.

These are desperate times, and call for desperate measures...
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/10/2003; 06:50:55 MDT - Msg ID: 99204)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

MK. Fundamentally, we believe that we are here to serve the client. Anyone who has done business with us will vouch for the courteous and professional service he or she has received. Our staff is carefully chosen and it shows. We get referrals on nearly a daily basis and are kept busy with strong repeat business. I would also like to call attention to the solid informational services offered at this website. We believe that any of our clients or visitors will find USAGOLD head and shoulders above anything else out there. I would encourage anyone attending this site to have a look around. We also publish a very good hard copy newsletter called News & Views: A Bi-monthly Review of Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Above and beyond that, the most important thing is the way we treat our clientele. From first inquiry through order fulfillment, we want to make the gold investing experience as pleasant and rewarding as possible. We have a large and satisfied clientele and that's the way we want to keep it.

The Stranger
(03/10/2003; 08:19:09 MDT - Msg ID: 99205)
Could a Shock to Fannie Mae Wreak Havoc?
Reuters

Monday March 10, 9:58 am ET
By Mark Felsenthal


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - An unexpected financial shock at either of the top U.S. home finance companies, Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) or Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News), could inflict heavy damage on the U.S. economy, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole said on Monday.



"Should either firm be rocked by a mistake or by an unforecastable shock, in the absence of robust contingency arrangements the result could be a crisis in U.S. financial markets that would inflict considerable damage on the housing industry and the U.S. economy," Poole said at a conference on the two government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs.

Surprises that destabilize financial markets can and do occur with some frequency, Poole said. Because of the scale of the short-term debt obligations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a problem at either company could spread quickly, he said.

"A market crisis could become acute in a matter of days, or even hours," Poole warned.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, while shareholder-owned companies, were charted by Congress to provide a deep and even flow of funds to mortgage markets, which they do by buying mortgages and repackaging them as securities for investors.

The regional Fed bank chief, reiterating concerns he expressed in a speech last August, warned the enormous size of debt held by the two companies could cause a "massive problem" in the markets if investors began to worry about their financial condition.

"If the market value of GSE debt were to fall sharply, because of ambiguity about the financial soundness of GSEs and about the willingness of the federal government to backstop the debt, what would happen?," Poole asked rhetorically. "I do not know, and neither does anyone else."

He also warned that a problem at one of the companies could raise concerns in the market about the other. "It is not sufficient of any single GSE to argue that its own financial condition is sound," he said. "If one GSE comes under a cloud, others may also."

The regional Fed bank president expressed concern that ties the two companies have to the government have led to a perception in the market that the government would rise to the rescue in the event of a crisis, even though their debt carries no federal guarantee.

Poole recommended the government withdraw one of the advantages Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac enjoy -- the Treasury's ability to lend either firm billions of dollars. This would make clear to markets the U.S. government feels no obligation to guarantee the companies' debt.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also should be required to hold greater capital, Poole said, noting their capital is well below the levels required of banks. "My sense is that the firms are vulnerable to nonquantifiable risks because their capital positions are so low," he said.

The two housing GSEs have argued they do not need to be as heavily capitalized as banks because their obligations are exclusively in the form of mortgages, which have homes as collateral.

Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have passed a capital adequacy test set by their government regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which requires them to be in a position to withstand a collapse of the U.S. housing market of historic proportions.
Gandalf the White
(03/10/2003; 10:19:55 MDT - Msg ID: 99206)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAA -- Check out the LATEST POG Contest status!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe ABOVE link will take you to the last UP-DATE of entries ! THEN you can determine your lucky number and enter to WIN FREE GOLD and a little Silver too !

TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK !!!
Less than Twenty-six Hours to GO before Entry DEADLINE time.
<;-)
Zhisheng
(03/10/2003; 11:12:30 MDT - Msg ID: 99207)
Patience
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Resistence on spot this morning is at $355, and it is being testing repeatedly. Inspiration, as during the previous two weeks, comes from the falling dollar.

There is something inexorable in this mighty battle. Though the hearts of the gold shorts and their powerful allies are determined, they (as in Longfellow's great Psalm of Life)

"Still, like muffled drums, are beating
Funeral marches to the grave."

White Hills
(03/10/2003; 11:15:53 MDT - Msg ID: 99208)
Contest
***$402.5*** Contest, I am betting that in the UN on tuesday the USA will get the nine votes it needs to pass new resolution, which barring a miracle will mean war.War is the by far the most serious of uncertainties both economic and political and I feel that Gold will go over $400.00 based on people moving their money from stocks and currency into Gold. Haven't they always in times of war? White hills
R Powell
(03/10/2003; 11:52:15 MDT - Msg ID: 99209)
Retirement accounts and gold/silver
Three years ago my wife suffered back damage while working as a homehealth aide. Many doctors and one operation later she has been diagnosed with damage beyond repair. She also has been granted social security disability (SSD).

I'm not looking for sympathy (we're doing fine, thank you) but can offer some tax information which may benefit others in a similar situation. The SSD status allowed us to cash out her retirement without paying any early withdrawal penalty, just the usual withholding tax due. An extra IRS form was required to change her withdrawal form IRS code from 01 to 03 (no penalty status). We used the money to pay down debt but, if we hadn't, we would have transfered the cash into silver.

She has absorbed enough information (although she doesn't share my passion for things financial) from me over the years so that she had the retirement in the lowest risk possible (probably bonds of some sort, NOT stocks) but even this is now imho, a questionable investment.

What's this got to do with gold? There are ways to transfer retirement savings into precious metals without being penalized by Uncle Sam. As long as the Fed has the monetary printing presses at Warp 9, can there be much doubt about the final outcome (long term as in retirement) of this inflation on the future price of gold? Free plug here for the management...Perhaps MarkeTalk knows other ways to tranfer into gold/silver without incurring early withdrawal penalties. Disclaimer, I'm neither licensed nor smart enough to dispense financial advice other than my own opinion. Value it in direct proportion to what you paid for it. (:>)
Rich

Tevye
(03/10/2003; 12:14:09 MDT - Msg ID: 99210)
contest *** 355.5 ***
The price shall be *** 355.5 ***

As to the 30 tonnes of Gold - I didn't buy it. However, the constable warned me the other night outside the bar, that there may be trouble coming. Then later he warned me of serious trouble in the housing market. I may even be forced out of my Home! When Lazar Wolf heard this, he made some calls in preparation. It was Lazar that bought Portugal's Gold, as permanent and portable wealth against the coming hard times. Who else has such resources?? Certainly not me.

Gold. It's Tradition!

Tevye
madgreek
(03/10/2003; 12:38:17 MDT - Msg ID: 99211)
***** 363.20 *****
Yes it was me and my home boy Eminem who bought dat gold from Portugal. You see we grew up in the poor part of Dee troit, and we knowed dat gold was good ta go price wise that is, so we stormed the streets. Busted a bunch of punk ^*$%# and rolled our dough into gold. Any questions?
sector
(03/10/2003; 12:43:27 MDT - Msg ID: 99212)
Everyone expects gold to fall when the war starts
The same people think oil will fall tooLet's look at gold.

As the dollar falls, gold rises. It's steady at $355 and pushing higher because the dollar is falling from near panic selling in Russia and elsewhere. Russia has $40 billion to sell, others in Europe may follow suit and dump dollars if they haven't already started...so the future for the dollar is as bleak as gold's is bright.

But...but...but...the SHARES! Everybody knows the shares lead the metal....don't they? Uhmmm. Not this time.

The only force holding gold down is official selling into a rising world demand. Demand that flows from a mortally wounded dollar. The gold cartel caught a flyer for a couple of weeks with the COMEX margin trick but that respite from selling bullion is over now. The DIVG [Dollar Index Value of Gold] is on the way back up, even if slightly so. The world now has a way to express it's anger and animosity at the US over the "Predatory War" [LeCarre]. They can dump their dollars and buy Euros which simultaneously makes gold that much cheaper in Euros and also increases European demand. See...the Euro guys know what is coming for the dollar and it isn't pretty.

If there is to be another assault on gold as the war starts. It will be met with buying...as much as is needed to keep gold steadily rising as the dollar falls.
When the cartel throws a Sunday punch at gold and it just bounces off...THEN we will see some fireworks indeed.

Oil from the Venz, as we keep hearing from Sir Black Blade, is 2/3rds of its former export levels, Nigerian oil is cut in half by a strike to 500,000 bbls per day, the Saudis are at 100% and can barley make 9 million bbls per day, All of Iraq's 500,000 bbls per day will cease flowing as the shooting begins, Russia and Iran are rumored to change from dollars to Euros and Mexico isn't playing by the US dance card any more by opposing the UN resolution. BTW the Mex guys hold the silver card as well.

The world is set up against the US over Iraq, which everybody knows is a war about oil and Regional imperialistic conquest. We can forget about ever again seeing sub $37 oil. Will the Prez shoot the remainder of the SPR just to gain a couple of bucks in the crude spot?

The answer is the same when one asks whether the Prez will shoot the remainder of his bullion to gain a couple of bucks in the gold price.

It would be foolish to keep fighting a bull market in either oil OR gold. The duymanics of these bull markets dictate an ever-increasing amount of selling to keep these commodities from "Escaping" upwards. They are running out of ammunition, lies and time. The world is on to the New York banking grease balls in a big way.

Thomas Friedman's "Long Bomb" football play that Bush has called in his thinned-out advisory huddle is looking less and less possible by the moment.

Chems are going to be used in defense of Baghdad according to defectors. So...does Bush nuke everybody there?

Russia, Iran and Mexico hold the cards to this game...the enormous oil pot may get changed from dollars to Euros and that will spell the end of the ERA of dollar hegemony.

"Gold is going down when the war starts" -- More propaganda from losers.
Black Blade
(03/10/2003; 12:46:06 MDT - Msg ID: 99213)
Gold reserves face depletion in 10 years - Barrick
http://m1.mny.co.za/mgp03.nsf/Current/80256CE100291EEB42256CE500644EC5?OpenDocument
By: Tim Wood
Posted: 2003/03/10 Mon 20:12 | � Mineweb 1997-2003

TORONTO -- Barrick vice president for exploration, Alex Davidson, warned in a presentation at the PDAC here that the gold mining industry has invested so little in exploration that current reserves could be depleted in ten years.
The situation affects non-South African producers most acutely since they cannot rely on deep reserves being activated by higher gold prices.

"Given that most mining projects require 5-8 years from discovery to production, [the industry] is not currently funding exploration at a level to replace reserves," cautioned Davidson. "We also need to attract more speculative capital back into the industry to fund junior exploration which has historically provided a pipeline of new projects."

According to Davidson, only two 5 million ounce deposits � the new senior producer benchmark � have been discovered since 1999; at Goldcorp's Red Lake mine and at Barrick's Alto Chicama project. Between 1994 and 1998, ten 5 million ounce discoveries were made.

Davidson believes a gold price of $350 per ounce over at least five years is required to "put the economics in place to sustain exploration that will bring us the best discoveries � low cost, long life properties � that sustain the industry."

"Some companies have doubled production through consolidation, which has doubled the ounces required to replace production, not to mention trying to grow reserves," Davidson said.

The implication is that the industry faces a scramble to rebuild its reserve life profile, without which it will lose serious investment attention. Davidson foresees increasing investor focus on organic growth, especially as doubt grows about the value delivered through mergers and acquisitions.

Davidson said: "One thing is for certain, the current state of affairs in exploration spending is untenable for the health of our industry. Big companies need to spend more on exploration or at current production rates reserves will be depleted in ten years."

The falloff in large scale discoveries, even the one million ounce deposits once considered a badge of seniority, are a reflection of cost cutting undertaken by producers to sustain themselves through the bear cycle that took gold prices as low as $255 per ounce early in 2001.

Global exploration budgets have been slashed radically and are only just beginning to recover amongst the senior producers, whilst junior companies remain relatively starved of capital, especially the speculative sort that is not tied to other mining companies.

Davidson noted that the merger and acquisition trend sweeping the industry has exacted a significant price with merged companies electing to close offices and lay off staff in a bid to rationalise their operations and squeeze the most from shrivelled budgets. "There is an ever-shrinking talent pool."

"There is a ripple effect on other industries, especially the investment industries where there are fewer analysts paying less attention to fewer stocks."

At the same time, the industry has slashed research and development spending with the result that the rate of innovation has slowed which is likely to compromise the industry's rate of return going forward.

"Things are turning around and exploration will be needed more than ever to keep this industry healthy in the years ahead."


Black Blade: This describes a rather bullish scenario for precious metals going forward. I have been pointing out that exploration budgets have fallen short and the lag time for new mines once a discovery is made requires years of definition and permitting before construction can begin not to mention the time it takes to reach ore bearing material once mining begins. I left the precious metals exploration side a few years ago myself for the more lucrative and exciting world of hydrocarbons as did many other exploration geologists. Many others left to work in academia, government, environmental arena, retirement or other fields never to return. The talent pool is not very deep in precious metals exploration these days and the most experienced and proven professionals will likely never return unless the rewards are substantially greater. The universities simply do not graduate those interested in the field anymore. I should be interesting to see how the industry handles this situation as more inexperienced professionals and newly graduated students are the only ones left to pick up the slack from a lean talent pool. The upside of course is that there will likely be a lot less successful exploration going forward and coupled with declining reserves the precious metals will be even more scarce making for a very bullish scenario.

Black Blade
(03/10/2003; 13:20:12 MDT - Msg ID: 99214)
Mining Industries Needs To Fund More Exploration - Barrick Vice President
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030310/1422000979_1.html
Snippit:

TORONTO -(Dow Jones)- Consolidation in the mining business will continue, especially among mid-cap to small producers, but the current low level of exploration spending is "untenable," a senior Barrick Gold Corp. executive said Monday at a mining convention. The disappearance of exploration dollars - as a result of consolidation, low metals prices and other factors - is sobering, he said. "One thing is certain: the current state of affairs in exploration spending is untenable for the health of our industry," he said at the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada convention. Big mining companies need to spend more on exploration, or else, at current annual production rates, reserves will be depleted in 10 years, he said. It can take six to eight years between making a discovery and starting mine production, and "we're not currently funding exploration at a level required to replace reserves," Davidson said. The spot gold price needs to stay at $350 an ounce, or more, for five or six years to sustain the necessary increase in exploration spending, he added. Things are looking up due to higher metal prices, but the recent lack of exploration spending across the board means "there's going to be a lag in new discoveries," he predicted. Consolidation has also led to job losses, resulting in an ever-shrinking talent pool as some exploration experts choose to leave the industry.

Black Blade: The story is being picked up on the mainstream news wires too.

Black Blade
(03/10/2003; 13:28:11 MDT - Msg ID: 99215)
GFMS foresees another 100 tonnes of dehedging
http://m1.mny.co.za/mgp03.nsf/Current/80256CE100291EEB42256CE50063FA8D?OpenDocument
Snippit:

TORONTO � London based Gold Fields Mineral Services forecasts that the gold price will receive support from a further 100 tonnes of dehedging in the first half of this year. The research house expects the gold price to average $350, with a range of $330-$370 per ounce. GFMS's Bruce Always said gold producers had lightened their hedge books for three consecutive years for a cumulative reduction of 350 tonnes. Dehedging has played an important role in supporting the gold price since it began to rally strongly in late 2001. Always said producers had slashed their hedge books for several reasons, most obviously the access to higher spot prices and low interest rates that have kept contangos at their lowest levels in years. With hedging margins not nearly as attractive as they were years ago, Always expects producer sentiment to remain firmly against adding to new hedges. He made no mention of investor sentiment which has swung radically against hedging and exotic financial structuring in recent years, punishing the most heavily hedged producers.

Black Blade: The death of the "Gold Carry Trade" has been very beneficial to the POG. This trend will continue and now with the Fed expected to cut interest rates again by at least 25 basis points and another 25 basis points later, we can safely say that the "Gold Carry Trade" has been killed with a stake driven through the heart of this vicious blood sucking strategy.

Black Blade
(03/10/2003; 13:35:58 MDT - Msg ID: 99216)
Platinum Rises to 22-Year High on Outlook for Demand, Supply
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&T=markets_box.ht∣dle=ad_frame2_all&s=APmzHyRUIUGxhdGlu
Snippit:

London, March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Platinum rose to its highest in more than 22 years in the London afternoon ``fix,'' amid expectations of growing demand. That came after a week in which investors increased their positions in the metal. Demand for the metal, which is used in jewelry and pollution control devices for cars, has outstripped production for four straight years. South African mines, the biggest suppliers, have failed to expand fast enough. ``Platinum has robust fundamentals and it's still required, even though there's growing voices about consumer confidence and weakening consumer spending in certain markets,'' said Kevin Crisp, a precious metals strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London. Platinum traded at $704 an ounce in the afternoon fix, its highest since September 1980, up from $696 in the morning fix. The price is set twice daily in London by members of an informal committee comprising Standard Bank London, Englehard Metals, HSBC Group and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Black Blade: I haven't checked lease rates lately but they were averaging about 20% or so. There were also strikes at Norilsk Nickel, lower production at a couple of SA operations, a takeover of Norilsk Nickel over Stillwater in progress, etc. "Interesting" developments.

R Powell
(03/10/2003; 13:41:48 MDT - Msg ID: 99217)
Gold franc out.......SDR in
http://www.bis.org/press/p030311d.htm Article....

SDR to replace gold franc at the BIS




10 March 2003

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) today announced that the Special Drawing Right (SDR) would replace the gold franc as the Bank's unit of account as from 1 April 2003. This decision was made today at an Extraordinary General Meeting of member central banks of the BIS. The Bank also decided to take steps towards modernising its financial accounting and reporting practices.

Used by a number of international organisations, the SDR is an international unit of account defined by the IMF and based on a basket of major currencies. The gold franc has served as the unit of account for the BIS since its establishment in 1930.

Commenting on the change, Andrew Crockett, General Manager of the BIS, said: "I welcome the introduction of the SDR. Along with a strengthened accounting framework, it will assist in managing the Bank's operations and economic capital more efficiently and enhance the transparency of its accounts."

Mr Crockett added that the changes would not affect the fundamental nature of the BIS's banking activities and would not have any implication for its policy towards its holdings of gold.

***********
Okay, I've no idea what this means. Can someone explain this and what it portends, if anything?
Thanks
Rich
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/10/2003; 13:52:10 MDT - Msg ID: 99218)
Why gold? Why now? (And how to get yours with a toll free phone call...)
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

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well-regarded long-time investment analyst who has correctly and
consistently forecasted the direction of both markets, says the stock
market and gold will cross in the 2000 to 3000 area
. Think about that
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diversified with gold? What will it mean if it is?

Gold to diversify your portfolio is an easy phone call away.
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"As a lurker for almost three years it was the opinion expressed on this board as well as other commentary that forced my wife and I to examine the sanity of playing with our life savings in the stock market casino. We bailed completely as the Nasdog was crossing 4400 heading south and immediately went to the physical...the rest is history. Gratitude is an understatment for that heads up. I can't even begin to fathom where we might be otherwise."--Harry Harrison, aka Skydog.

Lothar of the Hill People
(03/10/2003; 13:52:31 MDT - Msg ID: 99219)
*****$353.0*****
It is I, Lothar of the Hill People, who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal God, and with much labor moved it secretly into the depths of the hidden cavern home of my people.

Come. Gather with me around this fire of fellowship, and hear my tale of foolishness and wisdom, of loss and gain.

Since the ancient beginnings of our tribe, my people have relied on the purchasing power of the guano of the great albino bat--mined in the deep recesses of our ancestral home. My people have always successfully bartered with outsiders, and lacked nothing.

But in recent times, my people grew discontented with traditional ways. They wished to be like the "modern" nations around them. They began trading their guano for foreign fiat, which was piled in a cavern room that they called "The Central Reserve Bank of the Hill People." Even though there was a very favorable POG (price of guano), my people were not satisfied--a vigorous market in guano derivatives developed bringing in even greater quantities of foreign fiat.

Your humble servant, having gained much wisdom sitting at the foot of this great table, cautioned the people. But my words were unheeded. Soon the fiat was overflowing, filling more and more of our cavern home. Still the people did not heed my warnings.

But then, the cool dampness of our home began to take a visible toll on the great piles of paper. The people began to see that guano increased in value in the dank recesses of our home, while the paper deteriorated. They saw that our traditional store of wealth, guano, was much superior to paper fiat. They cried out to the elders for instruction and help to preserve their remaining guano (much of which was committed under futures contracts). Now they readily receive my teachings about the foolishness of paper and gold as a store of value.

It was I, Lothar, who led my penitent people to haul our great store of foreign fiat to Portugal in exchange for 30 tonnes of their under-priced gold and to Canada (for a chunk of their gold too).

It was I, Lothar, who closed the guano derivatives market and purchased back all outstanding deflated guano futures with gold.

It was I, Lothar, who led my people to establish a Strategic Guano Reserve.

And, it is I, Lothar, who brought the Hill People to a guano/gold standard.

Now I must leave for a season and return to my people. But, I trust we will meet again and speak of many things.

Fare ye well! I am Lothar, of the Hill People.
Socrates964
(03/10/2003; 13:54:50 MDT - Msg ID: 99220)
throwing gold franc overboard
If I'm not mistaken, instead of keeping accounts in gold (gold franc = 1/100 oz if memory serves me), they move to a basket of currencies.

May be innocuous, but then again may not - I suspect that central banks have loads of fiat and not much gold - so that if the price of gold were to skyrocket in fiat terms, under the old system they would have to take a mark-to-market writedown on the fiat in gold terms.

Under the new system, they presumably take a mark-to-market write-up on their gold in fiat terms, and can also reweight the basket to neutralise movements of fiat currencies against each other.

You can read all kinds of things into it:
1) that they want to insulate their balance sheet from the impact of a rise in the price of gold.
2) that they are preparing the way for a world currency (global fiat) which is an amalgam of existing fiat currencies.

It nevertheless looks like a shift away from sound money towards paper - any thoughts as to whether offensive or defensive in nature?
Asaf
(03/10/2003; 14:08:58 MDT - Msg ID: 99221)
***363.5***
Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it because I wanted to see if I could easily lift those 400 ounce good delivery bars... Hmmm, no, I guess some more training at the gym is required (also in order to survive the extreme social mess that will accompany the financial meltdown of the world's fiat systems)!
Black Blade
(03/10/2003; 14:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 99222)
Gold Gains - Most Everything Else Tanks!
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0E7EFE86%2DC148%2D42A9%2DA1FC%2D0A1F1D329DDF%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

"There has been a disconnect in last few weeks between gold prices and gold equities," said Amaury Conti, a gold equity trader at U.S. Global Investors. He said investors are trading with caution given that gold prices fell $15 or $20 following the initial U.S. attack during the Gulf War in 1991. And investors are reluctant to own stocks because of the weak economy. "It doesn't matter if it's a gold stock -- it's still a stock," he said, adding that some would "rather trade the bullion itself or trade on the sidelines."

Black Blade: Yes indeed. I commented on this in the DMR. People are running for the exits (actually they just sat on the sidelines). People want out of stocks all together. It does not matter if it's tech, blue chip, gold, oil, etc. They just want out! Meanwhile the "real deal" is gaining again. Bullion (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) is stronger on the day. The DOW tanked down �172, Nasdaq down �27, and S&P down �21.5. The USD is in a shambles as foreign investors split the scene amid threats of more US interest rate cuts and a gloomy outlook. The economy is quite shaky as tapped consumers can no longer carry the load. The "New Great Depression" looms even as star investor Warren Buffett throws in the towel on stocks as well. "Interesting Times"

As always, get out of debt while you can and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months� expenses, accumulate gold and silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

Aristotle
(03/10/2003; 14:28:55 MDT - Msg ID: 99223)
Rich and Socrates,
Personally I welcome the BIS's accounting change. I see it as a symbolic shift toward something I talked about with everyone here a few years ago -- the evolution toward a more "Perfect" monetary system for an Imperfect world. Looks to me like the smartly-dressed boys in Basel have also had their thinking caps on.

Gold. Get you some, now more than ever. --- Aristotle
ElGordo
(03/10/2003; 14:42:44 MDT - Msg ID: 99224)
Long term unemployment shows no sign of subsiding
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2003-03-09-econ_x.htm
Select a State

Areas of Interest:

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Long-term jobless near peak of '90 recession

By Sue Kirchhoff, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON � The percentage of Americans who have been out of work for six months or longer reached the highest level in more than a decade last month and could soon exceed the peak of the 1990 recession.

The steady rise in the number of long-term jobless, who made up 22.1% of all unemployed workers in February, according to the Labor Department, is a telling sign the economy is in worse shape than the headline 5.8% unemployment rate would suggest.

Further, private-sector payrolls, measured on a year-over-year basis, have been falling for 20 months. That's the longest decline since the mid-1940s, according to the Economic Policy Institute, a think tank.

The long-term trends, coupled with an unexpected spike in layoffs last month, prompted some economists to predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates when it meets next week, to spur economic activity.

"Not only is long-term unemployment showing no signs of subsiding, it's now clear that the problem is reaching more deeply and broadly into all corners of the labor market," said Maurice Emsellem, director of public policy for the National Employment Law Project.
__________
People will not be able to make the mortgage payment.
More bad news coming.
Topaz
(03/10/2003; 14:51:31 MDT - Msg ID: 99225)
Treasury "noise" ...bills/bonds buying.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Ctnxy%2Cfvxy%2Cgcj3.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=7&go.y=11The long Yield is "rock-solid" @ 4.65% which indicates it's at "cash-equivalent"...all other maturities have a little room to move it would seem.
Curiously, the root cause of the 1929 depression was too much money in too few hands, such as we are seeing today...the stark difference being Global SM's STILL have downside to burn and US Bond-yields have bottomed.

The only way left for T-Yields is UP...wayUP!

TS
(03/10/2003; 14:53:42 MDT - Msg ID: 99226)
entry
***$374.80***

Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it motivated by a deep-seated fear of perpetually smirking individuals trying to sell me something..... Hope everyone out there is able to keep the faith in their PM's and the reasons most of us bought them for!
ElGordo
(03/10/2003; 15:03:50 MDT - Msg ID: 99227)
6% make no payment on credit card debt
http://www.sacbee.com/content/business/story/6244044p-7198349c.htmlAlmost half of U.S. consumers are making only minimum payments -- or no payments at all -- on their credit cards, a new credit survey shows.

And a similarly large volume -- some 44 percent -- are continuing to take on debt because they don't have enough cash to pay ongoing expenses.

The dire outlook is part of the latest Cambridge Consumer Credit Index, a monthly gauge of consumer attitudes toward credit and a reflection of the nation's mounting individual debt.

On Friday, the Federal Reserve released its monthly survey of consumer credit for January, showing consumer debt rose sharply at an annualized rate of 9.1 percent, the fastest pace since November of 2001.

"What people don't know is that a large portion of the increase in debt was involuntary -- that 44 percent are going further into debt knowing in advance they won't be able to pay when the bills come in," said Jordan Goodman, spokesman for the index, an affiliate of the Cambridge Consumer Credit Counseling Corp. of Islandia, NY.

TownCrier
(03/10/2003; 15:17:15 MDT - Msg ID: 99228)
HEADLINE: Gold, Financials Among Top Funds Since Nasdaq Peak
http://news.nasdaq.com/news/newsStory.aspx?&cpath=20030310\ACQDJON200303101546DOWJONESDJONLINE001029.htmNEW YORK -- Three years ago, when the Nasdaq Composite Index was reaching its crest, the last thing on the minds of most mutual-fund shareholders was investing in gold, small banks or savings and loans.

As it turns out, many funds that invest in those areas are the ones that have posted the best returns over the period since the Nasdaq topped out...

Of the 40 stock funds with the best annualized returns since the Nasdaq peak, 12 are gold funds, eight are financial-services funds, and seven others are specialty funds which either use short-selling strategies or attempt to produce results that represent the inverse of the Nasdaq's returns.

...Leading the pack of underachievers is the ProFund UltraOTC, which "seeks daily investment results that correspond, before fees and expenses, to 200% of the performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index," according to the ProFunds Web site.

The fund has an annualized return of negative 74.4% since the Nasdaq crumbled, and its assets have fallen about 90%, from $1.5 billion to $158.4 million at the end of January. ...Among the worst-performers, several have recently indicated they will be closing, while a number of others continue to stubbornly hang on.

--------(see url for article)-------

Diversify your portfolio with gold. It never goes bankrupt and never closes. Call Centennial for latest market prices and professional consultation on a diversification strategy tailored uniquely to you.

R.
Black Blade
(03/10/2003; 15:29:45 MDT - Msg ID: 99229)
Tonight - Gold and Equities Markets

It should be "interesting" to see how the PM and equities markets perform tonight once Asian trading opens. The Nikkei could sink sub 8,000 for another fresh 20 year low and PMs could gain more strength. It remains to be seen. I see the hacks (Diane Swonk of Bank One and others) are touting this a good time to "jump into stocks" again. Nothing like trying to "catch falling knives" according to these touts. Others are saying that the equities markets have "bottomed" yet again. They have been horribly wrong so far so I wouldn't be putting much credence in their prognostications. Warren Buffett has said that he is not interested in stocks anymore, and St. Louis Fed president Poole panned Fannie Mae and Freddie Macs and that didn't help the markets either. Meanwhile investors have thrown in the towel on stocks and even the real estate bubble is deflating. Though not the not awaited "capitulation" expected by Wall Street, the sell off on was a shocker to some. It appears that the stock market has a long way to fall yet. In a word � "grim".

- Black Blade


Off to the gym!
Waverider
(03/10/2003; 15:48:27 MDT - Msg ID: 99230)
VIP: http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlSnip:
"The longer that gold holds above $350 an ounce the more comfortable traders feel about this level providing a floor price. Every time that gold gets battered in the gold pits and holds at this level confidence builds...With deficits exploding, geopolitical tensions rising, and the U.S. dollar collapsing, gold likely has a lot further to go. The dollar is sinking and the weakness can be tied to the weak economic outlook for the U.S., the aggressive Fed monetary policy, foreign policy, and ever-growing U.S. debt. Foreign investors (except Japan) are selling down the U.S. dollar and moving investments to a perceived more stable environment outside the U.S."
Waverider
(03/10/2003; 16:15:56 MDT - Msg ID: 99231)
DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
Seeing double, double ??Oops...of course that would be the DMR...
ElGordo
(03/10/2003; 16:37:18 MDT - Msg ID: 99232)
Send in the clowns
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/030310/15/38rsv.htmlA noted inflation hawk, Poole called the data, which saw the economy lose 308,000 jobs last month, "a disappointment." He added that "the size of the decline was substantially larger than anyone expected ... it clearly points in the direction of the economy not recovering on the track that we all hoped and expected was going to take place."

Indeed, the dismal nature of the numbers drove Poole to say "I wouldn't say an interest rate decrease is out of the question" when the Fed next meets on March 18. Poole is currently a nonvoting member of the policy setting Federal Open Market Committee, but given that all bank presidents participate in meetings, his views are still influential.

Poole's comments were perhaps all the more surprising, given that he said just last week that "the fundamentals" of the economy "are sound." He also said at the time that there was little in the way of inflationary pressure facing the economy.
____________
Economy not "on track"? Oops
glennh10
(03/10/2003; 16:37:34 MDT - Msg ID: 99233)
Re: 6% make no payment on credit card debt
I get the impression that as the world gets crazier and crazier, people are devoting less and less effort to thinking. They seem to be depending on the government and corporate leaders as fitting examples for running their own affairs. After all, if the goobermint can just print up pieces of paper and label them "dollars"; and, if the goobermint can forever ignore and conveniently roll over an ever-expanding debt; and, if the goobermint and corporate America can play convenient "fuzzy numbers tricks" with their accounts; then, why not me? After all, aren't we ALL to be held to the same standards of accountability? When a person sinks further and further into debt, the principle becomes a non-issue; and, soon after, so does the monthly payment due. It's not just the leaders, the people too have bought into this (debt = wealth) system. Today's perception is that the goobermint is the ultimate source of one's financial salvation. People today have become both ignorant and dependent. That's why we at this forum call them "sheeple". And, that's why we discuss these and related issues on this forum, and offer ways to financially protect oneself. The fact that we remain clearly in a minority offers a present advantage. As a result, gold remains affordable. For how long though, who knows?
misetich
(03/10/2003; 16:42:50 MDT - Msg ID: 99234)
Buffett Adds New Headache for German Insurer Gerling
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APm0CpxWvQnVmZmV0Snip:

New York, March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Gerling, Germany's fourth- largest insurer, had its credit rating cut to junk, replaced its chief executive officer and failed to sell its reinsurance business last month. Its latest headache is Warren Buffett.
The billionaire investor on Saturday said ``one of the world's largest reinsurers'' had ``all but ceased paying claims.'' Though Buffett didn't name a company, analysts including Chris Winans of Williams Capital Group LP said he was pointing directly at Gerling's reinsurance unit.
``This company owes many billions of dollars to hundreds of primary insurers who now face massive write-offs,'' Buffett wrote in an annual letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., his investment company and the third-biggest reinsurer.
...........
Gerling's financial woes may impact several U.S. insurers. The company's biggest U.S. clients are CNA Financial Corp., American International Group Inc. and Travelers Property Casualty Corp., said Fox-Pitt, Kelton Inc. analyst Michael Hallett. Those companies will likely need to write down the value of payments they expected to receive from Gerling, Hallett said.
............
Misetich

Lets get ready for ANOTHER round of contagious dominos!

All On Boar The Gold Bull Express

DoubleEagle
(03/10/2003; 16:53:36 MDT - Msg ID: 99235)
****$367.6****
I must sheepishly admit that it was I who bought the 30 tons of Portuguese gold. Sheepish because I must also admit that I am an easily influenced person, and I took this "Siege Engine" at it's face value. I now know that it is a fictional tale, meant to be an allegory for the stuggle we gold bugs face. I took it for a historical document, and a call to arms if you will. So, I bought the 30 tons of portuguese gold as a counter weight for the trebuchet I built in my back yard. Using astronomical calculations, I have it set at such an angle as to be pointing towards Kansas City. It was my fervent hope to hurl a stone at the Federal Reserve bank located there.

Alas, it has been pointed out to me that I should not do such a bold thing as this, for it is not the way of the gold bug. We fight silently and through faith. So, now I must be off to bury my 30 tons of portuguese gold. Good day to you and yours.

Cordially,
DoubleEagle
sector
(03/10/2003; 17:00:32 MDT - Msg ID: 99236)
Govt, coaliton mulling package on deflation
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030311wo12.htm
Yomiuri Shimbun

The government and ruling parties started discussing a comprehensive package of economic measures Monday as the worsening Iraq crisis causes the deflationary recession--accentuated by falling stock prices--to continue.

The government and the coalition are considering two options:

-- Asking the Bank of Japan to provide funds to cope with predicted confusion in the financial markets in the event of an attack on Iraq.

-- Accelerating the execution of the fiscal 2003 budget by spending as much as possible in the first half of the fiscal year.

The government and ruling parties said they would draft the plan as soon as possible while watching the economic situation.

The government also plans to establish a task force on the Iraq crisis chaired by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi if U.S.-led forces attack Iraq.

The government and ruling parties began considering the economic package as they feared falling stock prices could result in a financial crisis.

"If the fall in stock prices is ignored, latent losses of major banks and other companies will balloon and their finances will be damaged further. The situation may result in the distrust of financial systems, resulting in a financial crisis," a government official said.

The package will be two-staged, government sources said.

The first stage will implement urgent measures concerning the March account settlements of major banks and companies if a war on Iraq breaks out before the end of the month.

The second stage will consist of middle-term actions to cope with effects on the nation's economy if a war in Iraq is prolonged.

In the first stage, the government would ask the Bank of Japan to further ease its monetary policy to help stabilize the nation's financial system by helping financial institutions procure funds.

Economists predicted that in this case, the central bank would inject more funds into financial markets through open market operations using its own judgment.

The government will also keep its eye on oil prices. If a surge is predicted, the government will begin preparations to release national oil reserves into markets in cooperation with the International Energy Agency.

The Iraq crisis headquarters will decide the timing of the implementation of the economic measures.

As middle-term measures, the government and ruling parties will try to pass the fiscal 2003 budget and tax reform bills as soon as possible.

Then the government will consider supporting the economy by executing as much as possible of the budget, including public works spending, in the first half of the fiscal year.

However, some ruling party members insisted that the government should draft a fiscal 2003 supplementary budget during the latter half of the current Diet session.
++++++++++++++++++++++
Japan is taking a cue from Fed Governor Bernanke and firing up their already white-hot money printing presses. I especially like the part about accelerated spending in the first half of 2003.

Did anyone else notice today the frantic vertical move up by the Japanese yen as they sold yen and most likely bought dollars? It had zilch effect on the dollar.

As for the noise from the BIS about their Swiss Gold Franc...It the timing that smells. The end of April. The new World Order with Bush's hand-picked Arab atop the palaces in Iraq....the recipient of a two-week war scenario.

Oh yeah...the bank also is running light on gold bullion these days. The idea that the BIS wants to divest their direct link to gold in order to avoid the obvious conflict of a spiking gold price is a very good Aristotle contrib. It makes a great deal of sense...IF we think that these sewer dwellers have any morals.


Rocketman
(03/10/2003; 17:15:23 MDT - Msg ID: 99237)
"True Confessions"

I went to confession yesterday and the guilt was overwhelming, I felt I just had to come clean, so I promised the almighty � before I partook ot the sacraments mind you � that I would come clean and bring all my actions to the light. So here goes.

I am indeed the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it because uncle Warren is not very happy with any stocks right now. He is good at spotting a good deal. As he likes to say, "Noah did not start building the Ark when it was raining."

Now you all know he has made it a policy of only "investing" in things he can understand. He could never understand what the big deal was with the yellow metal. As Calandra accurately noted as he commented on Uncle Warren's view on gold, "It gets dug out of the ground in Africa or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."

But good old uncle has been changing his mind these days of late. First it was the "irrational exuberance" of the tech sector. He could never understand the business plan of those companies. Loose money, then loose more money and then after you've projected that you will loose money for the next 69 years, stock pickers pick your stock because of the new fandangled thing it will do for you and poof, you've got a winner! Well uncle was right about the tech stocks. Then he picked up 4000 tonnes of silver a few years back. I'm banking that he is going to be right about that too.

Actually, uncle Warren has been mostly right all his life. He's not always right right away, but sooner or later, he is right. That's why people listen too him � at least when it comes to investing.

Anyways, he was saying that he is maxed out on the yellow metal. Maxing out for uncle Warren means just under 2% of the 84 billion he controls. He said he wants more, but that he also wants to keep it under 2% because then he won't need to talk about it in his annual report. If he talks about it, people will get all excited. I told him I would help him out, so he floated me a loan and I picked up the 30 tonnes for him. So when he mentions the loan in the Birkshire Hathaway annual report, you will know what the loan is all about and where the money really went.

Me and uncle are saying *********$364.70**********for Thursday, March 13th Comex close.

P.S. This is indeed a tall tale.
21mabry
(03/10/2003; 17:53:33 MDT - Msg ID: 99238)
Cramer
I listen to MR. Cramers show quite often,he is telling people to hang on and not to sell.He continually says if you get out and a war starts you will miss the war rally.I finally closed out my s&p fund a month ago,at one time I had a nice chunk of change in it,now I have exactly half of what I had 3 years ago,I have no one to blame but myself,but I can assure you I bum out about that lost cash all the time I could have lived for 2 years on what I lost,MR. Cramer is keeping people in,I feel sorry for those who lost their life savings I am young enough to come back from the lost.Last thought Cramer just said he likes gold friday show whats up with that.
Dirk
(03/10/2003; 18:19:15 MDT - Msg ID: 99239)
***358.00***
My dawg did it.....

Another long-time lurker comes out of the shadows. This is one of my favorite sites and I feel that I know some of you very well. Couldn't find a better group of intelligent, weel-read ladies and gentlemen. Thanks for your enlightening posts!

I have to admit that my golden lab Zack, made me buy the Portagee gold. He's always wanted a golden pottee throne and when he looked at me with those big brown eyes, well, how could I say no? Now, I just gotta figure out how to git that 30 ton into my pick-up and over to the shop........

Salud!
R Powell
(03/10/2003; 18:21:06 MDT - Msg ID: 99240)
SDRs and gold francs
Thanks for the thoughts Socrates964, Aristotle, and Sector
sector
(03/10/2003; 19:00:40 MDT - Msg ID: 99241)
Thanks Rich...
Hope your wife is feeling a bit betterI had endoscopic spine surgery 15 months ago. Avoided laminectomy like the plague. Went home by plane the same day. The best neuro surgeon in the world...challenges the establishment and wins.

Now if I could only get my sholder fixed...it's hell not being seventeen.

More thoughts on the BIS. There are just too many timing coincidences for this last bit of SDR paper for gold not to fit in. The war, the loss of BIS gold holdings and consequent ability to sell from that source, the release of their 2003 Annual Report with all the ugly truths.
Au-some
(03/10/2003; 19:04:35 MDT - Msg ID: 99242)
*****$360.30*****
Yes, I am the one who bought 30 tons of Portuguese gold, and I did it because of an e-mail I received from
Eduardo Varimbi Kabilly Beppo. "Billy" Beppo's father, the late Big Daddy Hip Hoppo Beppo, founder of PHART � Provisional Homeland Advocates and Revisionist Tacobenders � a renegade Portuguese political movement - was killed by forces of the present Portuguese government during a daring daylight gunfight at the National Treasury Building in the late 1970's. Billy escaped to Spain with a large part of the Portuguese treasury's loot where he has resided in exile ever since. After many years, unable to practice normal banking privileges because of his refugee status, an advisor to the Beppo estate suggested they grab my name out of all the people in the world, off the internet, for the purposes of establishing a confidential joint account, so that Billy might have access to the PHART fortune. Can you believe that?! Talk about the chance of a lifetime! The deal was:
1) I open a joint account in both names.
2) I deposit a credible amount of cash in account.
3) They deposit PHART money in account.
4) Billy gets 70% of total.
5) Partner (me) gets 30% of total
6) We all win.
So I mortgaged the house, maxed the cash out of my credit cards to fulfill my half of the bargain and opened the account. However, being no fool, I wanted my portion in specie. So....


ElGordo
(03/10/2003; 19:10:08 MDT - Msg ID: 99243)
War could cost between $100 billion to $1.6 trillion
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EC11Ak03.htmlAnalysts say that the conservative estimates are based on a best-case scenario: a short, successful war that removes Hussein from power and maintains regional stability.

But the war could get bogged down, or messy, if Saddam uses chemical or biological weapons. Oil prices could spike for a long time. It could set off regional instability. And how long or intensive would the postwar occupation and reconstruction be?

For the US, it could all push the final bill up to the scary $1.6 trillion figure given by Yale economist William Nordhaus in December last year.

Little wonder US government officials are reluctant to provide numbers. Rumsfeld last week said it's impossible to made an accurate prediction. And his deputy Paul Wolfowitz was so evasive to the House Budget Committee last week that one congressman, James Moran, accused him of "deliberately keeping us in the dark".
________________
Never heard the $1.6 trillion number before. Ouch
R Powell
(03/10/2003; 19:28:53 MDT - Msg ID: 99244)
The mood of the crowd
After visiting the neighboring forums where I am a silent observer, I can report that I saw a great consternation and bewilderment at the widening divergence between failing precious metal mining stock prices and the POG.

It appears severe enough to have shaken the belief of some of the most stouthearted goldbugs while evoking calls from others to hold fast. I can not help but wonder at this great divergence and while I have never believed that the HUI and XAU HAVE to move up or down in lockstep with the POG, it nevertheless causes doubt.

I hold no stock so I'm somewhat insulated from the pain of their falling prices and, personally, think that all shares may fall together in a Bear market, regardless of sector, at least during any renewed downward leg which may now be in. However, I wonder if we may be near a bottom in the XAU // HUI indexes or, if not, if the POG must once more test the very bottoms of its range. This bottom might be the 200 day moving average as Adam Hamilton has speculated. I hope not and rather think that the stock prices and the underlying sector prices (precious metals) do not corollate as closely in time as many suppose. However, I must never forget that the market cares not for my opinion or anyone elses. It has the capacity to act however it pleases, even if that action seems totally illogical to any and all forms of analysis.

It may surprise us at any time for any number of reasons or for no apparent reason whatsoever. Hopefully, it will surprise to the upside. Maybe the goldbug stock holders despair is signaling just such a move but I have absolutely no basis for this optimism!
Thoughts?
Rich
Gandalf the White
(03/10/2003; 19:47:07 MDT - Msg ID: 99245)
UP-DATE on POG CONTEST --- NEW "KING of the HILL" ! <;-)
http://www.usagold.com/contest.html
Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
2/28/03 GC3J HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 OI = 105,993
3/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 OI = 104,153
3/04/03 GC3J HIGH = $354.9 low = $349.5 Settlement = $353.3 Change +$4.0 OI = 105,279
3/05/03 GC3J HIGH = $358.8 low = $352.3 Settlement = $353.2 Change -$0.1 OI = 106,349
3/06/03 GC3J HIGH = $357.4 low = $352.6 Settlement = $356.9 Change +$3.7 OI = 106,444
3/07/03 GC3J HIGH = $358.7 low = $347.0 Settlement = $350.9 Change -$6.0 OI = 105,019
3/10/03 GC3J HIGH = $355.5 low = $353.2 Settlement = $354.8 Change +$3.9 OI = ?

===
Contest FIRST DAY, 2/28, Sir Kevin$ was "King of the Hill"
Contest SECOND DAY, 3/3, Sir Kevin$ was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!
Contest THIRD DAY, 3/4, Sir Zelts was "King of the Hill" !!!
Contest FOURTH DAY, 3/5, Sir Zelts was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!!!
Contest FIFTH DAY, 3/6, Sir Liberty Head was "King of the Hill" !!!!!
Contest SIXTH DAY, 3/7 Sir Zelts RETURNS AGAIN to be the "King of the Hill" !
Contest SEVENTH DAY, 3/10 Sir RILEY is now "King of the Hill" !
===
LESS than SEVENTEEN HOURS remain to Enter the CONTESTS.
Put on your thinking HAT and prepare to make your PROGNOSTICATIONS --- NOW !!!
<;-)
gusto
(03/10/2003; 20:06:43 MDT - Msg ID: 99246)
An Open Letter too the President
http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?ItemID=14571A true patriot, but I'm sure he as lost a few friends in Seattle.
steady
(03/10/2003; 20:08:34 MDT - Msg ID: 99247)
belgum re message 99175
i emailed that article to as many people as i could. i also posted it other places as well. here is the translation of that article,
BY HENRY HABEGGER

Where do the 2000 tons of gold reserves of Switzerland lie? The central bank is silent. According to rumors a majority is to be loaded hoppers of it in the American Fort Knox. That could have uncomfortable consequences, if US president Bush without UN mandate pulls into the war.

"white I", does not say the inhabitant of zurich SVP national council Bruno Zuppiger, member of the finance committee. "white I", does not say the pc. Galler CVP national council Felix Walker, Mitglied of the financial delegation and former boss of the Raiffeisen banks. "white I", does not say those Bernese to FDP Nationalraetin Kaethi Bangerter, member of the bank advice of Swiss central bank (SNB) and the finance committee.
The question, the Sundays view this week to some financial politicians placed: Where is our gold? Where does the central bank keep its gold reserves? The "national wealth", of which so much is the speech, because it is sold to the half and the use of proceeds is politically disputed. The "gold treasure", which amounts at present still to approximately 2000 tons.

Where is our gold? Exactly that wants to now know that Bernese FR national council Paul Guenter. In the question time of the parliament Monday the safety politician places tomorrow to the Upper House of Parliament three questions:

Is it correct that the gold reserves of Switzerland are stored to a substantial part in Fort Knox in the USA?
Are there still substantial gold camps of Switzerland at other places and in other countries?
How rapidly, under which circumstances and of whom this gold can is if necessary withdrawn?
The gold mystery. Today there are only rumors. A part is to store under the federal place in Berne. A part in Fort Knox in the US Federal State Kentucky, most important repository of the US gold reserves and depot of all European central banks. A further part in London, the center of the international goldhandels.

Sundays view inquired with the central bank. But speaker Werner Abegg gives itself covered: "over the gold the most diverse rumors circulate to the central bank. For safety reasons it is not possible for us to commentate and/or rectify it." Only so much can be drawn the speaker of Swiss issuing bank: "the gold is stored at different places abroad the in and." According to Abegg after the slogan: "the intelligent farmer does not put all eggs into the same basket."

The fear is clear: The gold could be stolen. The fear seems so large that the central bank refuses each still so small specifying to the repository (countries, continents).

FR man Guenter has completely different doubts. "if it tunes that a majority of the gold lies in Fort Knox, then is extraordinarily uncomfortable the situation. If the USA lead an Iraq war without UN mandate, the gold is there at the wrong place - then it must be fetched back."

It justifies: "at a prominent nation we cannot keep nevertheless our gold for war. And which is, if the USA, which act in the Iraq question scruplesless, extort us suddenly with the gold?" Guenter is afraid that the USA could freeze the gold. "that would be a clear offence against international laws. There we would have to resist with the Court of Justice in Strasbourg (F) ", say ourselves to that Bernese SVP national council and financial politician Hermann Weyeneth.

Retreat of the gold. That demanded before five years also the Appenzeller CVP Staenderat Carlo Schmid. When in the Holocaust debate a US collecting complaint threatened against the central bank, it required: "all gold reserves in the USA must be withdrawn." If the gold is really there. Safe is only: Originally the SNB had 2600 tons. Half is sold, to end of 2002 left to 660 tons. Daily a ton is sold at present, for approximately 15,000 Franconias the Kilo

Do we know more on Monday? Hardly. Minister of Finance Kaspar Villiger is not betrayed also in the parliament, where the treasure is kept. For "safety reasons". "those have nevertheless something to hide", argwoehnt Guenter. That Bernese financial politician Weyeneth scoffs: "those probably think, Napoleon come back. And it transports the gold starting from as before 200 years Bernese the treasury."

^$%#@$%^&*&^*()_)(*&^%
i didnt miss the significance of this!
ElGordo
(03/10/2003; 20:31:19 MDT - Msg ID: 99248)
Hello Rich : regarding PM stocks
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmMarket Wrap on FinancialSense talks about increased short
positions in PM shares:


"I suspect the recent selloff in gold and silver mining shares has a lot to do with increasing short positions. New short positions for precious metals stocks should be available this week. I also suspect, given the action in the metals shares versus the price of bullion, that short positions have increased again. Many of the unhedged gold and silver shares have seen short positions build every month.

The short position in silver stocks has increased as much as 92.71%. In one silver stock, it grew 35,097% since Q1 -2002. The silver equities short position is far larger than the short position in the actual bullion. The same situation holds true for gold mining shares where short positions have increased from 84.42% to 4,146.92% in one mining stock. [See Short Positions]

Four Anomalies
This has occurred against a background of rising bullion prices. There are four major anomalies in the financial markets right now. The first is the rise in gold bullion versus the fall in gold shares. The second is the rise in oil and natural gas prices and the drop in energy shares, and the third is a falling dollar and rising commodity prices and falling bond yields. The final anomaly is between falling interest rates and falling stock prices. Inter-market relationships are out of kilter right now.

This topic will be discussed with this week's Financial Sense Newshour guest, famed market technician John Murphy. Suffice to say it appears that the alchemists are at work not knowing what monsters or demons they are creating in the financial markets with all of their tinkering and intervening. We will report the changes in the short positions later this week as they are made available. If you are thinking of panicking right now, you play into their plans. I would suggest you read Five Smooth Stones.

Remember, short-sellers have to buy back. They can only buy back if there are shares that are freely available. They hope to buy back at lower prices. They can only do so if you sell them your shares at lower prices. Please review the charts of the S&P 500 and gold in Five Smooth Stones before you do and then think hard about it. I would also like to suggest reading "The Next Big Thing."

mudr
(03/10/2003; 20:33:35 MDT - Msg ID: 99249)
****$355.5****
"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it because. . . I eat GOLD, I drink GOLD, I wear GOLD and smear it all over myself, I like to look at GOLD, I like the smell of GOLD, i read about GOLD, I think about GOLD, I dream about GOLD, I talk about GOLD.

But the reason I really needed to buy 30 tonnes is to pay for the new price of gasoline.
steady
(03/10/2003; 20:35:23 MDT - Msg ID: 99250)
the us. special drawing rights
aristotle, rich, belgium, socrates,

so the b.i.s. is going to use sdrs. the fed has been using them. but they have been disapearing. i wonder where they have gone? now that sdr are in the news , thanks b.is. maybe we can ask where in the heck the federal reseve sdr have gone to.

if im not mistken there is a vote up to increase the total amount of sdrs bu tim not sure il lhave to go double check and get back to ya>

The Mystery of the Disappearing SDR Certificates

James Turk


Copyright 2001 � by The Freemarket Gold & Money Report.

Here's a mystery for you. It ranks high with any of the great thrillers solved by Sherlock Holmes, but this one is not fiction.

I have been arguing that the US Treasury and possibly the IMF have been selling gold, and that their actions have depressed the gold price. But if I am right, then why has the reported weight of the US Gold Reserve and the gold stock of the IMF remained unchanged?

The easiest answer to this question is also the most unlikely. This low probability answer is that the US Gold Reserve and the gold stock of the IMF are not being accurately reported.

I dismiss this answer, almost completely but maybe not entirely because one never knows what could be happening. A deliberately reported inaccurate weight of gold would mean fraud, and I don't see that deception to be a highly probable outcome. No, I think there has to be another answer.

I touched upon the possible solution to this mystery earlier this year. I wrote (Letter No. 283, "Behind Closed Doors") that the portion of the US Gold Reserve stored at the depository in West Point, New York had been swapped with gold owned by the Bundesbank, and that the gold in the German central bank had been sold. So far, nothing I have seen refutes this contention, and correspondence from the Bundesbank has wrapped much of its gold policy in a cloak of confidentiality, adding credence to my conclusion. After all, if my supposition weren't true, why not just disclose the facts to convincingly refute it?

Be that as it may, there were some loose ends that in my mind needed to be tidied up in order to add more substance to my contention that much of the US Gold Reserve was swapped and then sold. And first among those loose ends was the accounting. How were all of these gold transactions being accounted for? How could all of this gold be put into play even while the reported weight of the US Gold Reserve and the gold stock of the IMF remained unchanged? And perhaps most importantly, why didn't these transactions result in any apparent change on the balance sheet of the main perpetrators of this scheme, the Federal Reserve and the Exchange Stabilization Fund? There has to be some kind of accounting trail, doesn't there?

I've thought long and hard about these questions, but have been unable to answer them to my satisfaction - until now. And in this regard, I would like to thank David Walker, a tireless researcher who has an uncanny ability to read between the lines of tedious and dull government reports to get at the truth. Dave's terrific work provided me with the motivation to continue researching an area that until recently had been largely unfruitful for me. And what is that area? A monetary instrument emitted by the International Monetary Fund called the SDR, an acronym for Special Drawing Rights a.k.a. 'paper gold'.

My intuitive sense for some time had been that SDR's were the key necessary to unlock the door. By understanding the SDR, I expected that one could understand what was happening to the US Gold Reserve as well as put together a consistent accounting and the legal framework for the gold transactions that I contend have been taking place. But even though I thought SDR's would provide the much sought after answer I was seeking, I was having trouble with a few things, mainly related to the accounting.

For example, SDRs are so-called "paper gold", so this financial asset has to have a corresponding liability just like any other 'paper' money, right? But I couldn't find who or what is actually liable for the SDRs.

After digging away in the IMF archives, I found the following in an IMF accounting manual called the Manual on Monetary and Financial Statistics, in a section entitled "Definition of Financial Assets: http://www.imf.org/external/indexlst.htm

"Monetary gold and SDRs issued by the IMF are financial assets for which there are no corresponding financial liabilities."

How about that? No wonder I couldn't reconcile the accounting. Here's a purely financial asset with no corresponding liability!?! SDR's issued by the IMF are accounted in the same way that the IMF accounts for its stock of gold. I thought that only tangible assets like gold, houses and land had no liabilities. I never dreamed that a financial asset would not have a corresponding liability, but after this realization, one thing led to another and everything slowly but surely started falling into place.

In "Behind Closed Doors" I included the following quote from the transcript of the January 31st, 1995 FOMC meeting:

MR. TRUMAN. The legislation governing the objectives of the ESF was changed, I think for the most part in the mid- to late-1970s. The changes included the language that the government of the United States and the International Monetary Fund have the obligation to promote orderly exchange rate arrangements leading to a stable system of exchange rates.

Since first reading this candid comment I have always been struck by it. Truman is relying upon this 1970's legislation to provide the legal justification to use the ESF to bail-out Mexico. It therefore seemed clear to me that if I could figure out what was implemented in the 1970's, I could then come to more precisely understand how the US Gold Reserve was being put into play.

I had been unsuccessful, however, in trying to figure out what was the legislation to which Truman was referring. Well, I now think that he was referring at least in part to what is called the Second Amendment of the IMF.

By way of background, when the gold crisis in the 1960's was in full swing, the original IMF articles were amended. This First Amendment to the IMF created SDRs. Then here's what the Second Amendment did. http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/gold.htm

What changed under the Second Amendment to the Articles of Agreement of the IMF? The Second Amendment to the Articles of Agreement of the IMF, which came into effect in April 1978, eliminated the use of gold as the common denominator of the par value system and as the basis of the value of the SDR. The Amendment also abolished the official price of gold and abrogated the obligatory uses of gold in transactions between the IMF and its members� Under the Amendment, members undertook to collaborate with the IMF and other members with respect to reserve assets to promote better international surveillance of international liquidity.

I draw your attention to the last sentence. I think this statement explains what Ted Truman was referring to. The term "international liquidity" is a euphemism I think that gives a carte blanche to do whatever the various IMF members want to do, using assets that are at hand or whatever assets that they create out of thin air, to intervene and manipulate any market anyway they want under the guise of "international liquidity" - which really means to let the banks create credit out of thin air for no other purpose but to keep the present system afloat so they can preserve their position of privilege and keep lining their pockets.

The following quote is from the "User's Guide to the SDR" published by the IMF. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/FT/usrgsdr/usersc01.htm#3

3. Improvements in the SDR after the Second Amendment: One of the major objectives of the Second Amendment of the Fund's Articles of Agreement, which became effective on April 1, 1978, is to make the SDR the principal reserve asset of the international monetary system. To this end, the Fund's Executive Board has taken a number of decisions to improve the yield on the SDR and its liquidity and usability. At the same time, certain obligations arising from participation have been eliminated.

"Improvements" to you and me may sound innocuous, but in reality these 'improvements' have only one objective - to keep the present system afloat by providing more power to governments working hand-in-hand with the banking cartel. So far I'm not sure of all the ways the SDR became more usable, nor have I yet discovered all the obligations that were eliminated when the Second Amendment "improved" the SDR. But I have learned enough about the SDR to conclude why the accounting of the US Gold Reserve does not appear to have changed. This mystery can be solved by first solving a second mystery, the case of the disappearing SDR Certificates.

To begin, it is necessary to provide some background information gleaned from more hours of studying arcane IMF accounting than I care to admit, but I'll keep it simple. And the way to do that is to show how 'real gold' and Gold Certificates are accounted, because I have learned that 'paper gold' and SDR Certificates are accounted essentially the same way.

The US Gold Reserve does double-duty. It sits in the vaults at Fort Knox and the other depositories, but the US Treasury has issued Gold Certificates against it. The Federal Reserve owns these Gold Certificates, giving the Fed a claim to the 261.6 million ounces in the US Gold Reserve. Simple enough, and the same transaction is used for 'paper gold' - the SDR's - with just one small difference. The US Treasury has transferred its SDR's to the ESF, so the ESF and not the US Treasury issued the SDR Certificates now owned by the Federal Reserve.

Importantly, these SDR Certificates are being accounted for much the same way as the Gold Certificates. Both are carried at book value, which is much less than their market value. The Gold Certificates are carried on the Federal Reserve's books at $11,046 million, which doesn't sound like much. However, when you consider that these Gold Certificates are being valued at only $42.22 per ounce, this asset represents the entire 261.6 million ounces in the US Gold Reserve. And the SDR Certificates are being valued at - well, here is where it starts to get interesting. And here is where the mystery of the disappearing SDR Certificates comes into play. Look at the decline in the SDR Certificates in the accompanying table.


Exchange Stabization Fund
Federal Reserve


(Assets)
(Liabilities)
(Assets)


(in millions)
(in millions)


SDR
SDR
SDR
SDR
Gold


Holdings
Certificates
Allocations
Certificates
Certificates

Dec-98
10,603
9,200
6,899
9,200
11,046

Mar-99
9,682
8,200
6,653
8,200
11,049

Jun-99
9,719
8,200
6,545
8,200
11,046

Sep-99
10,284
7,200
6,799
7,200
11,047

Dec-99
10,336
6,200
6,717
6,200
11,048

Mar-00
10,335
6,200
6,599
6,200
11,048

Jun-00
10,444
4,200
6,552
4,200
11,046

Sep-00
10,316
3,200
6,359
3,200
11,046

Dec-00
10,539
2,200
6,384
2,200
11,046

Mar-01
n/a
n/a
n/a
2,200
11,046


The above table presents the SDR assets and liabilities of the ESF and the Fed. Though recent figures for the ESF are not available, as of August 9th the Fed still owns only 2,200 million of SDR Certificates, so presumably the SDR entries on the ESF balance sheet have not changed much since December 2000. To understand why the SDR Certificates are disappearing as well as where they are going, more background information is necessary.

The US, like each IMF Member, owns SDR's but is also responsible for the value of the SDR. Note #4 of the ESF's financial statement for 1999 explains it thus: "Its [the SDR's] value as a reserve asset derives, essentially, from the commitments of participants to hold and accept SDR's and to honor various obligations connected with its proper functioning as a reserve asset."

As of December 1998, the ESF owned 10,603 million SDR's, but it had a liability for 6,899 million SDR's. What does this liability represent? Here's what Schedule B of the Articles of Agreement of the IMF says: "�0.888671 gram of fine gold shall be equivalent to one special drawing right." That means 35 SDR's equals one ounce of gold. So the US has the potential obligation as of December 2000 - if required to make good on SDR's issued - to pay to the IMF or its members 182.4 million ounces of gold, some 69.7% of the US Gold Reserve.

That huge liability is pretty scary, but it is only a potential liability. Who knows whether the US will ever be required to make good on it, or if it does, whether the US will default just like it defaulted in 1933 on its obligation to pay US government bonds in gold and in 1971 on its obligation to redeem 35 dollars for one ounce of gold. Those are problems to worry about in the future. Of more immediate concern is the decline in the SDR Certificates. What is that all about? To answer this question and to solve this mystery of the disappearing SDR Certificates, we have to once again go back to basics.

Why are the SDR Certificates declining? The basic answer is quite simple. The SDR Certificates MUST BE reduced if the ESF intends to use its SDR's for any purpose, such as market intervention or swaps. In other words, the SDR Certificates are a claim against the SDR's, so the SDR Certificate must be cancelled to remove any claims on the SDR before the SDR can be used by the ESF. But the amount of SDR's owned by the ESF hasn't changed except briefly in early 1999, so it seems that the SDR's are not being used for any purpose.

So what I think has happened is that the SDR Certificates are themselves being used by the ESF. Here's what the IMF says about the use of SDR's in swaps: "In accordance with Article XIX, Section 2(c), the Fund prescribes that...a participant, by agreement with another participant, may engage in an operation by which (a) one of the parties transfers [i.e., swaps] to the other party SDRs in exchange for an equivalent amount of currency or another monetary asset, other than gold."

Thus, SDR's cannot be swapped for gold, but there is no IMF regulation that prohibits the swapping of SDR Certificates for gold. So let's take this observation to its logical conclusion, namely, that the ESF and/or the Federal Reserve has been swapping SDR Certificates issued by the ESF for gold owned by the Bundesbank, and presumably other central banks as well because we noted above that the Second Amendment states that "members undertook to collaborate with the IMF and other members" for the sake of international liquidity. So presumably, all IMF members are committed to undertake any scheme that the US government may hatch.

This interpretation may also explain the strange response to Alan Greenspan by the Fed's General Counsel, Virgil Mattingly, who has "no clear recollection of exactly" what he said during the January 31st, 1995 FOMC meeting, even though it seems most likely that the transcript accurately records him as saying "gold swaps". In his June 8, 2001 note to Greenspan, Mattingly states: "I can confirm that I have no knowledge of any 'gold swaps' by either the Federal Reserve or the ESF." Is Mattingly being truthful? Yes, I think so, at least in regard to the precise choice of terms used in his note.

Remember President Clinton's exegesis on the definition of the word is? Lawyer Mattingly I think is playing the same game. By this line of thinking, neither the Federal Reserve nor the ESF do 'gold swaps'. Instead, these transactions are probably called "SDR Certificate Swaps" or some other similar term, although the FOMC participants may use the unofficial term "gold swaps" as a short-hand moniker that is not only easier to say than the official name of the transaction, but also has the added advantage of clearly communicating the net result of the transaction.

There is another important piece of corroborating evidence that SDR Certificates are being used by the ESF to hide its gold transactions. When several months ago I first read the audited financial statement of the ESF, I was struck by a peculiar phrase in footnote #4, which in addition to considerable explanatory text also provided a table of SDR purchases and sales during the year. The text stated that these purchases and sales were "equivalent of SDR's". Therefore, I concluded that if they were "equivalent of SDR's", SDR's were not actually being used in the transaction. But I wondered, if they weren't SDR's, then what were they? We don't know for sure what they are, but they are probably SDR Certificate transactions - not SDR's, but only their "equivalent".

Let's put the size of these transactions into perspective. As of December 2000, the ESF owned 10,539 million SDR's, against which it has issued 2,200 million SDR Certificates. Therefore, 8,338 million SDR's are potentially 'in play', but we can refine this number given that it is the SDR Certificates and not the SDR's that are important.

The ESF by law cannot issue more SDR Certificates than it has SDR's. The largest amount of SDR Certificates outstanding was 10,168 million in December 1995, a significant date because I have contended all along that government actions that have depressed the gold price began in 1996, which is the same year that the SDR Certificates began to decline. From this peak to the present, the SDR Certificates have been reduced by 7,968 million. Given that there are 35 SDR per ounce of gold, this reduction in the SDR Certificate account equates to 227.7 million ounces, or 87% of the US Gold Reserve. Does this mean that 87% of the US Gold Reserve has already been swapped? I don't have the answer to that question, but I would like to make four important observations that do in fact suggest that substantially all of the US Gold Reserve has been put into play.

First, note on the accompanying table the dates when the SDR Certificates began to decline rapidly. From 10,168 million in December 1995, the SDR Certificate account declined to 8,200 million by June 1999, or 19% over 3� years. Now look at the decline beginning in the third quarter of 1999, which corresponds with the Washington Agreement signed in September of that year. In only 18 months the SDR Certificate account declined by 73%. Was there a panic to get gold into the market after the Washington Agreement to keep the gold price from rising? This evidence sure does support that conclusion.

Second, readers will recall how the US Treasury changed in September 2000 the classification of that portion of the US Gold Reserve in West Point to "Custodial Gold". It is interesting and probably meaningful to note that this change occurred in the fiscal year ending September 30th in which there was a substantial decline in the SDR Certificates.

In "Behind Closed Doors" I speculated that the reason for this reclassification was that the Mint's accountants or its new director realized that it was misleading to continue calling this swapped metal as "Gold Bullion Reserve". This logic may also explain why more recently, the entire US Gold Reserve was reclassified as "Deep Storage Gold". If 87% of the US Gold Reserve has indeed been swapped, it may have been too obvious an admission by the US Treasury to reclassify nearly the entire US Gold Reserve as "Custodial Gold". Therefore, to give some semblance of proper accounting while not totally divulging the truth, the Treasury came up with the half-baked term "Deep Storage Gold". Further, it was my thinking that the Treasury, taking a lesson from lawyers Clinton and Mattingly, probably defined this term in some obscure Treasury accounting manual.

What was a speculation on my part is now supported by a letter dated August 7, 2001, to Richard May from John P. Mitchell, Deputy Director of the US Mint. Mitchell states: "The gold in West Point was not reclassified - it was renamed to better conform to our audited financial statements." Despite providing five pages of supporting material with his letter, Mitchell does not explain how this 'renaming' enables the Treasury to "better conform to [its] audited financial statements." The logical conclusion is that this better conformation arises because the strict application of prudent accounting principles no longer allows the Treasury to use the term "US Gold Reserves" because more than half - and possibly 87% of it - has been swapped. Given that the Treasury does not want to use the more accurate but alarming term "Custodial Gold", the US Gold Reserve has therefore instead become "Deep Storage Gold", allowing the Treasury to remain within the letter if not the spirit of the principle of full disclosure.

The third observation takes the above changes and explains them in weights of gold. The 6,000 million drop in SDR Certificates from June 1999 to December 2000 represents 171.4 million ounces, or 28.6 million ounces (888.7 tonnes) per quarter. That's a supply of about 3500 tonnes per year, which added to 2500 tonnes new mine production implies an annual demand of 6000 tonnes for the period of time after the Washington Agreement. Is this number reasonable?

In my opinion it is reasonable. Noted gold analyst Frank Veneroso contends that annual gold demand has been running about 5000 tonnes, but this number reflects normal market conditions. After the Washington Agreement and the price spike, the market was anything but normal. Even though fabrication demand fell during that period, investment and monetary demand for gold soared. So it is not unreasonable to expect that more than 1000 tonnes of newly supplied gold from government dishoarding was needed in the months after the Washington Agreement to turn the price back from the +$320 level reached at that time.

The fourth and final observation relates to a point I made in the last newsletter. I noted how earmarked gold has been shipped from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at a rate of at least 40 tonnes per month beginning in September 2000, while also stating this new "dishoarding from the NY Fed smacks of desperation". The above table confirms this conclusion.

The SDR Certificate account has not changed since the 4th quarter of 2000. With only 2,200 million remaining, the SDR Certificate account, while not depleted, is near rock bottom and one must ask how much more gold the US government is willing to throw at the market? I don't think the answer to that question is "all of it", so essentially there is no more US gold available for swapping. Consequently, with these SDR Certificate swaps eliminated as a source of supply, another source of gold had to be located to fill the gap between supply and demand.

In the last newsletter I suggested that the
mudr
(03/10/2003; 20:36:31 MDT - Msg ID: 99251)
Please change my guess to ****$355.6****
Please change my guess to ****$355.6****

Thank you
steady
(03/10/2003; 20:47:58 MDT - Msg ID: 99252)
rest of post
In the last newsletter I suggested that the IMF is this new source. That's just a supposition on my part, but it seems logical that IMF gold is being shipped out of the FRB of NY. The quantities being shipped are so large, the gold must be coming from a large hoard, and the IMF has, on paper at least, one of the world's largest. But regardless of whose it is, this gold is being shipped at a rate greater than gold is being mined each month in South Africa, the world's largest producer. That volume of shipments smacks of desperation to get gold into the market, and the reason is clear. Because the SDR Certificate swaps have ended, a new source of gold supply is needed to keep the gold price from exploding upward.

In conclusion, it is becoming very obvious that the US government has put itself in an incredible pickle. But we've seen this happen before.

In the 1960's the US government dishoarded over 9000 tonnes of gold rather than admit that the dollar had been debased and was no longer worth only $35 per ounce. Now it appears that perhaps as much as 7,000 tonnes (227.7 million ounces) has been swapped for essentially the same purpose - to intervene in the market to fight the truth, rather than admit that the dollar has again become very debased relative to gold. �

August 14, 2001

http://www.fgmr.com



Gandalf the White
(03/10/2003; 20:49:45 MDT - Msg ID: 99253)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA --- ATTENTION PLEASE !
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe ABOVE LINK shows the POG CONTEST Listing UP-DATED as of MONDAY, 3/10/03, 18:40 Denver Time !
LESS THAN --EIGHTEEN-- Hours to GO before the Entry DEADLINE !!!
Tick tock ....
<;-)
Socrates964
(03/10/2003; 20:54:09 MDT - Msg ID: 99254)
Guessing the gold price
$360 +/- $10

Unfortunately, Socrates' magic gold forecasting model is pretty bad at picking anything but tops and bottoms (based purely on repeating cycles and Fib numbers in London PM fix data).

What it IS suggesting is that the bottom on POG is in (we may just get a retest of previous lows over the next 5-8 trading sessions, but likely to bounce, and there's no particular reason why we should even go back down in the first place) and that the next cyclical top is due in around 3 months time (actually, 63-69 trading days) at around $415.

Anyway, colours nailed to mast - no rude comments until June, please!

PS on gold stocks - action is dismal, but volumes have been low too. Jim Sinclair made the point that hedgies are long metal and short stocks - presumably a short squeeze on the shares will lead to liquidation of the metal as losses mount. Could the stocks get ramped as a way of shaking down long positions in physical? Thoughts?



a nation of one
(03/10/2003; 20:54:58 MDT - Msg ID: 99255)
****** 355.10 ******

All right, all right. I bought the thirty tons to replace a paperweight that I had dropped, which broke into a billion pieces. The result I had in mind was to have a paperweight made of about four ounces, and to keep the rest as a reserve for whenever I dropped and broke the new one. One advantage was that I knew I could leave it in the garage and it would be safe, since gold never tarnishes. I had calculated everything extremely carefully, estimating that since I typically drop a paperweight and break it about once a week, I would need about thirty tons to last my lifetime, plus my children's lifetimes, and plus their children's lifetimes too. After that, my descendants would have to figure out on their own how to handle this problem. That was my plan. But just to show you how all this calculation stuff doesn't always turn out perfectly right all the time, I will tell you that the gold was already in my garage before I realized that gold doesn't break. In other words, I am only going to need the one paperweight. So now what I have to do is find somebody else who has a paperweight problem, and sell what's left to them. The total comes to 29,997 pounds, and 12 ounces. (I sent out a couple of pounds to have earrings made for all the females I know, which, if my calculations are correct, is probably six. I think each one of them may be able to lift an ounce and a third per ear, though I am not sure. I am pretty confident they won't be mad at me though, because I have seen them wear this yellow stuff before, so I know they like it.)

Any of you guys need a paperweight?
sector
(03/10/2003; 20:56:29 MDT - Msg ID: 99256)
@RichP The Shares
An unsustainable divergence from the metal...caused by unnatural forces.

It may go on for a while yet but will reverse to a very steep rocket to fly further than HUI=150 even as gold moves up to a level where the cartel can better defend its position.

The rubber band has been stretched taut as gold has risen from $310 to $355 while the HUI and XAU has fallen. All along the way gold pundits have said shares lead the metal. Well shares haven't led the metal for six months and aren't leading the metal today. But weak hands gold bugs get scared just as the cartel knew they would.

So where's the beef? The cartel gets the shares because they want to make money going down as well as going up. The tip-off came early in the run-up when institutions ran to the shares but then left them in July 2002. Gold simply leveled off...no need to run unless they had been "Warned". By the same entity that told the S&P to "Warn" it's institutional funds that gold was "Too volatile". If the cartel HAD the gold they wouldn't need to resort to amaturish, way-too-obvious share rigging stunts.

All this propaganda is typical in a gold war fog. By listening to it weak hands get weaker. The cartel wants gold shares since they can't get gold. The Fed has said IT will buy gold shares and may even be doing so now through secret off-shore accounts run by JPMorgan and CitiBank.

So today's selling frenzy tells us that the "killer move" [down] that Bill Murphy spoke of this evening is near if not already here. As Jim Sinclair said tonight, It's theatrics. Gold is in a bull market with hardly a significant drop since April 2001.

The cartel is shrewd crafty and ruthless....and running low on ammo. They have engineered this share fall and they will profit from its rise. How do I know?

What is the chance of the HUI falling to say...80 vs. rising to say 160? Choose the later and you have the direction of the next move in the gold shares.

Proof comes as there is essentially no probability domain that permits an HUI fall to 80 levels WITHOUT gold falling heavily with it, and gold has shown no pattern since the Washington Agreement that would allow that to occur. Nor can the putative looming gold fall be forced to fit a falling dollar cloud which is upon us like locusts.

Gold is a currency that the world wants...especially these days

The dollar regression line and the associated Euro rise tell the story. 140 for the Euro at year's end and 72 for the dollar...a 50% delta. These trends are solid, if a bit early in the year. Gold is way too cheap in Euros in today's war, global economic spiral and wildly inflationary deficits. All this share noise is nothing more than the cartel's diversionary move in their next retreat tactic.

Attack, fall back. Military tactics 101. The big gold policy action is drawing near guys. A move to get the cartel to safety and no more gold sales.

Get it while you still can
a nation of one
(03/10/2003; 20:57:45 MDT - Msg ID: 99257)
my tons

Since 30 tons usually weighs closer to 60,000 pounds, you will get a real bargain.
Gandalf the White
(03/10/2003; 21:27:42 MDT - Msg ID: 99258)
Attn: Sir A NATION of ONE !!!
a nation of one (03/10/03; 20:57:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 99257)
my ton
===
Your OUNCES also 12 Troy Ounces = a Pound -- not 16 !
<;-)
Waverider
(03/10/2003; 21:40:02 MDT - Msg ID: 99259)
Japanese Stocks Decline
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APm1h7hU9SmFwYW5lSnippit:
"The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 66.27, or 0.8 percent to 7978.73 as of 1 p.m. in Tokyo. The average lost as much as 1.4 percent to 7928.17, dipping below 8000 for a second day. Banks fell on concern the Nikkei's slide to a 20-year low will deepen their equity losses before the March fiscal year-end. Sumitomo Mitsui slid 17,000 yen, or 7.3 percent, to 215,000. The bank has lost 15 percent of its value in two days. UFJ Holdings Inc., Japan's fourth-largest bank, lost 3,000 yen, or 2.4 percent, to 120,000. Falling share prices are widening losses on banks' stockholdings and threatening to reduce their capital to below the 8 percent of risk-weighted assets recommended by the Bank for International Settlements. This comes at a time when lenders are struggling to write off 52.4 trillion yen in bad loans. Sumitomo Mitsui and six rival banks' investment losses rose more than fourfold to 5.8 trillion yen as of March 7 from a year ago, Daiwa Institute of Research said yesterday. ``Banks have capital raising issues and with the markets falling drastically, it doesn't provide much incentive to buy banking shares,'' said Morley Fund's Nakayama."

Waverider: Nikkei's at 7,910 at the moment and heading south.
Black Blade
(03/10/2003; 21:49:09 MDT - Msg ID: 99260)
Market wrap Up �Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

In summary, expect a fast and furious rally to follow if all goes well in the early days of fighting. While financial assets rally, hard assets will fall. You have already seen this happen especially with the gold shares. I suspect the recent selloff in gold and silver mining shares has a lot to do with increasing short positions. New short positions for precious metals stocks should be available this week. I also suspect, given the action in the metals shares versus the price of bullion, that short positions have increased again. Many of the unhedged gold and silver shares have seen short positions build every month. The short position in silver stocks has increased as much as 92.71%. In one silver stock, it grew 35,097% since Q1 -2002. The silver equities short position is far larger than the short position in the actual bullion. The same situation holds true for gold mining shares where short positions have increased from 84.42% to 4,146.92% in one mining stock.

Four Anomalies

This has occurred against a background of rising bullion prices. There are four major anomalies in the financial markets right now. The first is the rise in gold bullion versus the fall in gold shares. The second is the rise in oil and natural gas prices and the drop in energy shares, and the third is a falling dollar and rising commodity prices and falling bond yields. The final anomaly is between falling interest rates and falling stock prices. Inter-market relationships are out of kilter right now. This topic will be discussed with this week's Financial Sense Newshour guest, famed market technician John Murphy. Suffice to say it appears that the alchemists are at work not knowing what monsters or demons they are creating in the financial markets with all of their tinkering and intervening. We will report the changes in the short positions later this week as they are made available. If you are thinking of panicking right now, you play into their plans.


Black Blade: Over the last couple of months I had said that I would be more inclined to buy physical precious metals than mining shares. The short position on shares is unbelievable so I am willing to just sit on the sidelines now. Meanwhile, bullion prices are essentially dirt cheap now and provide a good opportunity to "dollar cost average" into physical for the time being. I think that there are simply too many novices (aka Lemmings and speculators) in shares now (all types of shares). The disconnect between physical (bullion and energy) vs. stocks (mining and energy) for me is a bit perplexing. Obviously too many deep pockets are playing the small fry for suckers and I just won't play their game. So instead of getting caught up in the gut wrenching volatility and swarming hordes of panicked Lemmings I would still suggest a quiet accumulation of physical precious metals on a consistent schedule (dollar cost averaging) until the fry and weak specs get creamed and get pushed out of the way. The weak dollar, crushing debt (government, corporate, and consumer), expanding trade deficits, rising unemployment, crashing stock markets, etc. will continue to build a floor of support for hard assets. In the meantime we get to watch all these curious undertakings for our amusement.

mikal
(03/10/2003; 21:54:12 MDT - Msg ID: 99261)
Further short-term analysis
http://www.jsmineset.comQ & A with Jim Sinclair
Mon Mar 10, 2003
3 Observations on the Poor Action of Gold Shares Today
� � Author: Jim Sinclair
�Answer: March 10th,
Dear JK:
Here are my observations on the poor action of gold shares today.
1/ How about kill the leader and kill the market. Barrons hatchet job on RGLD had a significant effect on other shares with short positions in them. Holders of gold shares are afraid of a media hatchet job on their positions.
2/ How about the fact that there a very few gold companies that are good businesses. Ounce counting which is the common method of valuation is a liquidation valuation, not an ongoing business valuation method.
3/ The general decline in equities put pressure on the gold because the new gold sharescrowd is not the seasoned crowd of the 70s.
4/ There always seems to be a Prechter effect when deflation is discussed which is negative on gold shares.
Regardless as Gold goes so will the shares after the THEATRICS ARE OVER.
Regards, Jim�
Copyright � 2003 Jim Sinclair, All Rights Reserved.
(A weekend posting by J.Sinclair also mentions RGLD and it's leadership status and trashing in the Barron's weekly. And you can add to the above, some of Sector's comments, and the fact that the recent surge in gold share issuance by many miners dilutes their value. Also the flight to investment safe havens by foreigners, who are reluctant to remain in dollar-denominated gold equities was mentioned by an Australian web forum poster who observed very different action in his country's golds.)
Scarab
(03/10/2003; 21:57:07 MDT - Msg ID: 99262)
*** $ 357.0 ***
Yes, I'm the one who bought those 30 tons. I admit it.
The choice at the time was easy..Wouldn't you have done the same, if you had the chance? At today's price, with what's coming down the track, exchanging fiat for metal is a no-brainer. I intend to store in in 3 or 4 spots around the world (Switserland, Singapore, Dubai and the keel of my yacht come to mind), where it is easy to sell fractions of a ton.
I won't have to worry about interest rates, stockmarkets, exchange rates, credit risk, war, famine or otherwise. I'll just live happily ever after...
Black Blade
(03/10/2003; 21:58:07 MDT - Msg ID: 99263)
Long-term jobless near peak of '90 recession
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2003-03-09-econ_x.htm
Snippit:

WASHINGTON � The percentage of Americans who have been out of work for six months or longer reached the highest level in more than a decade last month and could soon exceed the peak of the 1990 recession. The steady rise in the number of long-term jobless, who made up 22.1% of all unemployed workers in February, according to the Labor Department, is a telling sign the economy is in worse shape than the headline 5.8% unemployment rate would suggest.

Black Blade: No kidding! And ya know the worst part of the BLS data? There are many more than is tabulated due to the statistical massage and methodology used. These long term unemployed are cashing out of the stock market and their retirement funds as well. Some are living off of their home equity too. This "New Great Depression" is getting very ugly.

Waverider
(03/10/2003; 22:12:05 MDT - Msg ID: 99264)
Nikkie meltdown
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=c&t=1d&l=on&z=b&q=lNot a pretty sight...where's the Japanese PPT?
Gandalf the White
(03/10/2003; 22:31:33 MDT - Msg ID: 99265)
IF you can "read" Charts -- THIS one looks READY TO BLAST OFF !!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!b50!g10!e5!a!h.02,.20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lo14!Lv25!Lw25!Lr14]Note the small MACD chart on the bottom ! TICK TOCK !
<;-)
erayboy
(03/10/2003; 23:00:27 MDT - Msg ID: 99266)
*****360.0*****
I admit it ... I bought the 30 tons. I needed them. The Wizard told me to complete the Yellow Brick Road to OZ ... or else. Where else could I find such a large supply on short notice.

Those foolish bankers. Little do they know ...
Gandalf the White
(03/10/2003; 23:05:16 MDT - Msg ID: 99267)
ATTN Sir Erayboy !! THE WIZ now tells you to TRY AGAIN !
erayboy (03/10/03; 23:00:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 99266)
*****360.0*****
I admit it ... I bought the 30 tons. I needed them. The Wizard told me to complete the Yellow Brick Road to OZ ... or else. Where else could I find such a large supply on short notice.
Those foolish bankers. Little do they know ...
===
That price has been taken by Sir Socrates964
Please give me another price !
Tks
GW
Gandalf the White
(03/10/2003; 23:08:51 MDT - Msg ID: 99268)
UPDATE on POG CONTEST !!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlListing UP-DATED as of MONDAY, 3/10/03, 22:00 Denver Time !
LESS THAN --FOURTEEN-- Hours to GO before the Entry DEADLINE !!!
Tick tock ....
<;-)


NOTE to CONTEST entrants -- Please check to see if your "Prognostication" number has been taken in any newly entered guess, AFTER the above posting time, just before you submit yours, so that there are not any duplications ! Thanks <;-)



**** $444.0 **** silvercollector (3/8/03; 08:01:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 99122)

**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)

**** $404.5 **** Operative (3/4/03; 13:21:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98861)

**** $402.5 **** White Hills (03/10/03; 11:15:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 99208)

**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)

**** $399.0 **** Ananse (03/06/03; 21:16:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99033)

**** $398.0 **** Montana (03/07/03; 13:17:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 99092)

**** $392.5 **** physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824)

**** $388.8 **** Believer (3/4/03; 17:29:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98891)

**** $387.6 **** misetich (3/8/03; 09:34:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 99124)

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (02/28/03; 06:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98581)
**** $385.4 **** slingshot (02/27/03; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98555)

**** $381.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (02/27/03; 10:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98525

**** $380.2 **** goldquest (3/8/03; 00:29:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 99112)

**** $378.0 **** Mountain Top (02/27/03; 17:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98543)

**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)
**** $377.7 **** Roccoco (3/4/03; 18:59:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98902)

**** $376.1 **** wiley (3/9/03; 17:51:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 99188)

**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)

**** $374.8 **** TS (03/10/03; 14:53:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 99226)

**** $372.7 **** Noble1 (03/03/03; 20:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98819)

**** $371.0 **** J-Bullion (03/07/03; 14:10:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 99095)

**** $370.0 **** Sundeck (03/09/03; 21:21:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 99196)

**** $369.5 **** Moegold (03/07/03; 09:43:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 99074)

**** $369.0 **** Goldilox (03/07/03; 18:18:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 99101)

**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)

**** $367.6 **** DoubleEagle (03/10/03; 16:53:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 99235)

**** $366.5 **** 1340cc (3/9/03; 10:00:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 99166)

**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)

**** $364.7 **** Rocketman (03/10/03; 17:15:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 99237)

**** $363.5 **** Asaf (03/10/03; 14:08:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 99221)

**** $363.2 **** madgreek (03/10/03; 12:38:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 99211)

**** $362.4 **** Boilermaker (3/4/03; 15:25:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98876)

**** $361.4 **** R Powell (3/9/03; 10:51:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 99169)

**** $360.8 **** VanRip (03/03/03; 19:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98814)

**** $360.3 **** Au-some (03/10/03; 19:04:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 99242)

**** $360.0 **** Socrates964 (03/10/03; 20:54:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99254)

**** $359.2 **** gusto (3/9/03; 06:22:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 99160)

**** $358.8 **** The Knife (03/08/03; 11:58:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 99131)

**** $358.5 **** Woodie (3/8/03; 02:58:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 99118)

**** $358.0 **** Dirk (03/10/03; 18:19:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 99239)

**** $357.5 **** seagull (3/8/03; 21:29:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 99153)

**** $357.0 **** Scarab (03/10/03; 21:57:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 99262)

**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)

**** $355.6 **** mudr (03/10/03; 20:33:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 99249)
**** $355.5 **** Tevye (03/10/03; 12:14:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99210)

**** $355.1 **** a nation of one (03/10/03; 20:54:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 99255)
**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $354.7 **** RILEY (03/06/03; 13:11:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 99016)

**** $353.5 **** NTgeo (3/9/03; 16:56:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 99181)

**** $353.0 **** Lothar of the Hill People (03/10/03; 13:52:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 99219)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $351.5 **** balzac (03/08/03; 09:47:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 99127)

**** $350.0 **** goldfool (3/9/03; 13:41:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 99178)

**** $349.6 **** Max Rabbitz (3/9/03; 08:41:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 99163)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $344.0 **** monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787)

**** $340.0 **** kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)

**** $335.2 **** Bizkit (03/07/03; 15:31:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 99096)
===
TICK TOCK !!!
<;-)

Knallgold
(03/10/2003; 23:23:03 MDT - Msg ID: 99269)
Swiss Gold
A Swiss politician (Socialist) said the SNB should call back its Gold which is stored in the USA.We shouldn't have Gold in a nation which is on war and should better keep it for ourself.

Calling Gold back?Gold weapon?I'm not sure if it was this politicians genuine idea if you know what I mean.
Gandalf the White
(03/10/2003; 23:59:44 MDT - Msg ID: 99270)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA POG CONTEST !!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlPREVIOUSLY taken Prognostication ! Please TRY AGAIN !
===
erayboy (03/10/03; 23:00:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 99266)
*****360.0*****
===
Listing UP-DATED as of TUESDAY, 3/11/03, 00:01 Denver Time !
LESS THAN --TWELVE (yes that is 12) -- Hours to GO before the Entry DEADLINE !!!
Tick tock, TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK ....
<;-)


NOTE to CONTEST entrants -- Please check to see if your "Prognostication" number has been taken in any newly entered guess, AFTER the above posting time, just before you submit yours, so that there are not any duplications ! Thanks <;-)


**** $444.0 **** silvercollector (3/8/03; 08:01:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 99122)

**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)

**** $404.5 **** Operative (3/4/03; 13:21:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98861)

**** $402.5 **** White Hills (03/10/03; 11:15:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 99208)

**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)

**** $399.0 **** Ananse (03/06/03; 21:16:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99033)

**** $398.0 **** Montana (03/07/03; 13:17:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 99092)

**** $392.5 **** physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824)

**** $388.8 **** Believer (3/4/03; 17:29:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98891)

**** $387.6 **** misetich (3/8/03; 09:34:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 99124)

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (02/28/03; 06:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98581)
**** $385.4 **** slingshot (02/27/03; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98555)

**** $381.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (02/27/03; 10:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98525

**** $380.2 **** goldquest (3/8/03; 00:29:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 99112)

**** $378.0 **** Mountain Top (02/27/03; 17:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98543)

**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)
**** $377.7 **** Roccoco (3/4/03; 18:59:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98902)

**** $376.1 **** wiley (3/9/03; 17:51:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 99188)

**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)

**** $374.8 **** TS (03/10/03; 14:53:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 99226)

**** $372.7 **** Noble1 (03/03/03; 20:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98819)

**** $371.0 **** J-Bullion (03/07/03; 14:10:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 99095)

**** $370.0 **** Sundeck (03/09/03; 21:21:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 99196)

**** $369.5 **** Moegold (03/07/03; 09:43:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 99074)

**** $369.0 **** Goldilox (03/07/03; 18:18:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 99101)

**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)

**** $367.6 **** DoubleEagle (03/10/03; 16:53:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 99235)

**** $366.5 **** 1340cc (3/9/03; 10:00:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 99166)

**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)

**** $364.7 **** Rocketman (03/10/03; 17:15:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 99237)

**** $363.5 **** Asaf (03/10/03; 14:08:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 99221)

**** $363.2 **** madgreek (03/10/03; 12:38:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 99211)

**** $362.4 **** Boilermaker (3/4/03; 15:25:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98876)

**** $361.4 **** R Powell (3/9/03; 10:51:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 99169)

**** $360.8 **** VanRip (03/03/03; 19:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98814)

**** $360.3 **** Au-some (03/10/03; 19:04:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 99242)

**** $360.0 **** Socrates964 (03/10/03; 20:54:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99254)

**** $359.2 **** gusto (3/9/03; 06:22:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 99160)

**** $358.8 **** The Knife (03/08/03; 11:58:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 99131)

**** $358.5 **** Woodie (3/8/03; 02:58:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 99118)

**** $358.0 **** Dirk (03/10/03; 18:19:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 99239)

**** $357.5 **** seagull (3/8/03; 21:29:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 99153)

**** $357.0 **** Scarab (03/10/03; 21:57:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 99262)

**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)

**** $355.6 **** mudr (03/10/03; 20:33:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 99249)
**** $355.5 **** Tevye (03/10/03; 12:14:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99210)

**** $355.1 **** a nation of one (03/10/03; 20:54:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 99255)
**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $354.7 **** RILEY (03/06/03; 13:11:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 99016)

**** $353.5 **** NTgeo (3/9/03; 16:56:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 99181)

**** $353.0 **** Lothar of the Hill People (03/10/03; 13:52:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 99219)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $351.5 **** balzac (03/08/03; 09:47:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 99127)

**** $350.0 **** goldfool (3/9/03; 13:41:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 99178)

**** $349.6 **** Max Rabbitz (3/9/03; 08:41:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 99163)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $344.0 **** monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787)

**** $340.0 **** kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)

**** $335.2 **** Bizkit (03/07/03; 15:31:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 99096)
====
HURRY UP AND ENTER !
<;-)

Hang Tuff
(03/11/2003; 00:01:10 MDT - Msg ID: 99271)
****353.9**** Hang Tuff
I am the one who bought the 30 tons of portugal gold. I WON THE LOTTERY!! SOOO How best to invest ? The dollar is in SERIOUS trouble.No doubt about it ,and wanting the lottery winnings to grow there was no other choice. Glad to buy at a good price. Just waiting for the big explosion UP!
Just waking up
(03/11/2003; 00:47:37 MDT - Msg ID: 99274)
**** $ 356.4 ****
Yes, I bought the thirty tons of Portugese gold, and with my own money mind you.

Why did I buy it? Well, ...I am going to divide it into three ten ton lumps to make statues honoring Bill Clinton, Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan.......

hahahaha! HaHaHaHaHa! HoHoHoHoHo!! HAHAHAHAHA!! HAHAHA HOHOHO!! ......whew! ....breathe......breathe.....

....wiping away tears with the back of my hand....

Bob
TownCrier
(03/11/2003; 00:55:58 MDT - Msg ID: 99275)
You can see here how gold is a better holding than any given national currency
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Top%20Stories%20Europe&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=euro&s=APm0nBRT5U3dpc3MgNo sure safety in Swiss franc for savers

Bern, March 11 (Bloomberg) -- The Swiss central bank may have to sell francs for the first time in a quarter century to weaken its surging currency after lowering interest rates to near zero, analysts said.

``The next step would be intervention, in case the franc continues to rise,'' said Gerald Linder, a currency trader at Bank Julius Baer & Co. AG. ``A peg to the euro will only become an issue if the franc's appreciation persists.''

The central bank last week pared rates for a seventh time in two years to ``ward off a tightening of monetary conditions that would arise from an appreciation of the Swiss franc.'' At least four of the cuts were to check the franc's rise.

[Here is the bottom line...]

The interests of the country's banking industry, which has become one of the world's largest not least because of the franc's strength, collide with those of manufacturers.

Companies such as ABB Ltd., Europe's largest electrical engineer and Novartis AG, the continent's third-largest drugmaker, like the cheap money they can borrow yet they worry even more about the squeeze on margins from an ever-rising franc.

``We are constantly suffering from the strength of the franc -- it simply must not rise any further,'' said Roland Abt, chief financial officer of Agie Charmilles Holding AG in an interview. ``It's a shame that there's no room for a further interest rate cut left.''

`One advantage of tying the franc to the euro would be that it would solve the problems of having to balance out currency fluctuations with customers.'' The 12 countries using the euro bought 53 percent of Switzerland's exports last year, compared with 11 percent purchased by U.S. companies.

-------(see url for this important article)--------

The official line is always "...measures to weaken the [insert currency here] if needed." Such is the fate of a national currency when the choice is perceived as a tradeoff between manipulating the currency for full employment versus as a means for strong savings.

History reveals that paper seems always fated to depreciate to serve the quest for social agendas.

On the other hand, in theory and practice, you should be able to hold gold with confidence as your form of strong savings. Unlike governments' relentless meddling in the monetary system, you'll never see mother nature intervene with policy measures to weaken gold's value in any occasion where the eco-system happens to be slumping...

R.
Belgian
(03/11/2003; 01:02:32 MDT - Msg ID: 99276)
@ steady
Consider the following :

Central Banks managing their exchange-reserves (inter-bancair) with * Gold (and currency)-Commitments * : Forward (or straithforward) goldsales, over time, for a very particular currency (dollarreserves >>> euroreserves), to be added to the altering exchange reserves (or used for other purposes), that rises in exchange rate with a reliable degree of certainty over the coming (unknown) period. Commitments to deliver (reallocate- (inter-bancair) physical gold that will rise in price...and consequently offers the possibilty to deliver less and less physical gold for exchange (temporary, inter bancair, reallocation), the more the gold-reserve is priced higher, over time.

Yesterday, France, suggested (subtly, within a televised serious debate) that it is working on monetary policies in parallel with China !!! A small revieuw from the 1971 events was presented as introduction. Dollar-dominance, Bretton Woods and Gold window (Nixon) were mentioned.
TownCrier
(03/11/2003; 01:06:46 MDT - Msg ID: 99277)
HEADLINE: Flaccid economy may prompt Fed interest rate cut
http://www.reporter-news.com/abil/nw_business/article/0,1874,ABIL_7948_1803118,00.htmlWASHINGTON � The Federal Reserve may soon be forced to cut interest rates again, driving them to the lowest level since Dwight Eisenhower was president, amid fears that the shaky economy is about to fall back into recession.

"Prior to the unemployment report, we thought the Fed would stay on hold for some months to come and the next move would be a rate hike, not a rate cut," Louis Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, a bond market research firm, said Monday.

Now, Crandall said, he is forecasting a quarter-point rate cut at the March 18 Fed meeting.

...Some economists believe the Fed might cut rates by a half-point, the same move it made in November, when it cited the drag on the economy from "geopolitical risks" such as worries about a possible war in Iraq.

---------(see url for article)-------

Cutting rates, making dollars ever easier to come by.

As a saver concerned about purchasing power over time, always be wary of a government's efforts to reflate an economy... they all-too-easily slide into hyperinflation as the measures are largely not employed in a productive capacity for the real economy when they resort to picking up the ball of string and throwing it. (Said with a nod to FOA)

R.
Gold Standard
(03/11/2003; 03:08:50 MDT - Msg ID: 99278)
******** 361.0*********
Yes. I bought the Portugese 30 tons of gold.

I did so, because the Swiss were offering me 30 TONNES at the same price!

Damn that metric system! Each Swiss tonne was only worth .9845 of the Portugese TON.

So, I came out ahead by 0.465 TONS, which is about 16,700 oz, which today is worth USD $5.9 m or thereabouts.

Good enough for this little black duck!
ElGordo
(03/11/2003; 04:07:58 MDT - Msg ID: 99279)
Terrorists target oilfields
http://dynamic.washtimes.com/twt-print.cfm?ArticleID=20030311-535533Al Qaeda is seeking recruits in the Middle East for terrorist attacks on oil fields in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in the event of U.S. military action against Iraq, U.S. intelligence officials say.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials said yesterday that there are signs that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's forces have planted explosives in Iraqi oil fields in anticipation of sabotaging them during U.S. and allied military attacks.

The al Qaeda recruitment is targeting radical Islamists in Saudi Arabia and Yemen who are willing to conduct suicide attacks and other sabotage against the oil fields outside Iraq.

The threats to oil facilities highlight the possibility that military acton will disrupt the flow of oil from the Middle East, where most of the world's oil originates.
drawmax
(03/11/2003; 04:23:12 MDT - Msg ID: 99280)
****426.0****
I would have bought the 30 tons of gold from the nice Portugese folks but I am a trusting person and I listened to my very sincere broker who told me to buy and hold. I now have very little to hold.
ElGordo
(03/11/2003; 04:34:25 MDT - Msg ID: 99281)
Margin debt increases
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APm1whxWkQm9ycm93New York, March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Investors have boosted the amount borrowed to buy U.S. stocks for four straight months, the longest streak since the bear market began three years ago.

Clients of the New York Stock Exchange's member firms had $134.9 billion of so-called margin loans outstanding in January, the latest month for which numbers are available, according to the Big Board. The total was the highest in six months. The NYSE will release its February figure in mid-March.

The increasing use of margin, or credit, for stock purchase may reflect a sense among investors that the worst of the market's losses have passed, some money managers said.

``People are more comfortable with putting money back to work,'' said Brett Gallagher, who helps oversee $4 billion as head of U.S. equities for Julius Baer Investment Management. ``Things are not getting dramatically worse.''
__________
Great idea, borrow more money and buy more stocks!
silvercollector
(03/11/2003; 04:56:58 MDT - Msg ID: 99282)
BB and others watching the bullion/share price disconnect
I have been monitoring this unusual piece of work with great interest. Puplava, Sinclair and a host of others all have offered their opinions.

It seems that there is a fairly unanimous vote that once war starts and the situation swings into favor for the US gold (and oil) will fall off a cliff.

But we see gold and oil (physical) still very high. Why is this? Since 'spot' is now and the SM discounts the future, who is correct? If the SM already has already priced 310-320 gold is it not a good idea to load up on shares? Further, what happens if:

a)there is no war; what happens to bullion/shares?

b)war starts and does not go well?

Everyone has often discussed buying bullion when it is cheap compared to shares, is the opposite not true?

It seems to me that one market is terribly, terribly wrong. Is it the spot (physical) market or the (future) stock market?

Thanks in advance.

(BTW, yesterday I loaded up on shares, also increased physical over the weekend; playing both sides of the fence)
goldenpeace
(03/11/2003; 04:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 99283)
Contest Guess:********353.2***********
My family has a big old farm house with floors that are sagging....and my wife worries that some day when i'm jumping up and down about how "irritating" government actions are for common folk, that i'll fall through....soooo, since a wise , wise man once said to "build your house upon a rock"....i bought the Portuguese 30 tons of gold, since gold , though soft , seemed a whole lot more like a rock than the piles of fiat that i tried to make a foundation before....in fact, those piles of fiat piled under the beams in the cellar seemed so spongy and soft and false....sort of like "building my house on the sand"....unlikely to hold up too well over time. 30 tons makes a pretty good foundation.
Now my whole family is way more confident.
We are
goldenpeace
Bowing to MK (belated Happy Birthday!) and the Forum...
"There is no way to peace. Peace is the way." --Thich Nhat Hahn
spook69
(03/11/2003; 05:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 99284)
****356.20****
Yes. I bought the Portugese 30 tons of gold. Why, because my decorator thought that using gold to line my new panic room would be so much nicer than plain old lead and steel. Only problem was he over estimated the amount needed, just hope I don't need to get the family in there now!
Carl H
(03/11/2003; 05:24:48 MDT - Msg ID: 99285)
OTCBB Naked Short Selling by Market Makers
http://www.nakedshortselling.com/Market makers on the OTC BB are allowed to do naked shorting of stocks. That is to say that they can short a stock without even borrowing the shares, they can simply create the shares out of thin air. See the link for more information. It would be interesting to see how hard hit the mining shares on the OTC BB have been hit compared to the ones listed on other exchanges.

I will also point out that since the Depository Trust Company (DTC) is an arm of the Federal Reserve System, is it so far fetched that they could be covertly doing naked shorting of the mining stocks listed on other exchanges? After all, look at how good they are at electronically printing dollars -- I'm reasonably sure it is not that hard to electronically print some additional stock.

I have stated here before a couple times that the mining companies should take some action to prevent this. For example, they could simply pay out all profits as dividends payable in gold. If mining companies started doing that, I am fairly sure that not even the FRB would want the liability of being short those stocks.

DummyANI
(03/11/2003; 07:07:52 MDT - Msg ID: 99286)
The stock price of BOJ is predicting a moratorium crisis in Japan.
http://quote.yahoo.co.jp/q?s=8301.q&d=bThe top price of BOJ(Bank of Japan) was 755,000 Yen/share at Dec. 08, 1988. Today�fs closing price(2003.03.11) of BOJ is 45,000Yen/share. This is 5.96 percent of the top price. If this level is applied to DJIA(2000.01.14:11722), DJIA will be only at 698.7 point.
At present, BOJ is adopting a Junk-bond policy in which BOJ is repurchasing Japanese Government Bonds from commercial banks. So that BOJ already bought more than 86 trillion Yen-Government-bonds. More than 670 trillion Yen Government-bonds (equivalent to $5.7 trillion USD) have already been issued, and their yield are on the brink of a collapse.
The government bond-share by BOJ is more than 12.8 percent, and BOJ is nominated in the biggest loser in the world financial market of 2003.
ElGordo
(03/11/2003; 07:10:57 MDT - Msg ID: 99287)
Egypt could be target for terrorist anarchy
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=31453The terror threat in Egypt is being taken so seriously among western and Israeli intelligence agencies that they are actively considering the possibility of the fall of President Hosni Mubarak's regime and pondering what might become of Cairo's weapons of mass destruction in such an eventuality.

During a special session of the People's Assembly, Egyptian Minister of the Interior Habib al-Adeli reportedly told legislators that his assessment is based on solid information coming from various sources. He is expecting mega-attacks, dramatic terrorist assaults, on an international scale.
___________
Many are anticipating a quick, easy victory in Iraq. They expect
oil and gold to fall as soon as war starts. However this is not
1991 and things are very different this time around.
Truthcaster
(03/11/2003; 07:23:09 MDT - Msg ID: 99288)
****350.90****
Gold should hold near here until the war
breaks out with Iraq. So ****350.90***
Waverider
(03/11/2003; 08:08:30 MDT - Msg ID: 99289)
****** $350.50 ******
I think Gold will hold in a fairly narrow trading range the next few days unless geopolitical tensions change dramatically. And no...I'm still not admitting to buying 30 tonnes of Portuguese Gold! Cheers All,
Waverider
Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 08:10:20 MDT - Msg ID: 99290)
LOOK OUT SPOT !!! PAPER AVALANCHE in NY !!!!!
Could the COMEX ever run out of PAPER Gold ?
<;-(
Magister Aurelius
(03/11/2003; 08:15:09 MDT - Msg ID: 99291)
***$358.30***
Yes, I purchased the 30 tonnes of gold from the Bank of Portugal. And I will be brutally honest for a moment to all of you peons and soon to be serfs. Your economies are hosed. Gold will be money again, and the banks will be folks like me, bringing back the tradition of Lorenzo De'Medici. If you are lucky enough to have your own gold, you might just be able to live free, but everyone will be serfs for me! Mwuhahahaha!!!
Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 08:16:41 MDT - Msg ID: 99292)
TAA TAAA TAAAAAAAAAAAA --- Less than FOUR Hours to Go !!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlCHECK out the POG CONTEST entries at the ABOVE LINK and MAKE you Prognostication SOON !
<;-)
Albatros
(03/11/2003; 08:22:55 MDT - Msg ID: 99293)
******$351.0******
Hooray! I've arrived back from seagoing work Just in time for another POG guessing contest!!!...The economic mood is pensive. Looks like POG is hovering around this mark. What else could an honest economic forecaster say ??? - I love the one about the panic room!!!
Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 08:27:54 MDT - Msg ID: 99294)
**** $359.9 ****
The Hobbits have decided to make a Prognostication to cover the number for Sir Erayboy, just in case he can not return before the HIGH NOON DEADLINE ! This is for you Sir Erayboy!
(03/10/03; 23:00:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 99266)
*****360.0*****
<;-)
Econoclast
(03/11/2003; 08:31:09 MDT - Msg ID: 99295)
********348.70*********
Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tons of Portugal Gold. Why did I do it? Very simply, I decided to take that necessary step to protect my families� financial future. All the obvious reasons for such an economic decision were part of my thinking, and really those reasons alone, justify the purchase at this time. But there was also another reason that I bought the gold. I have learned that through a complicated process, the owners of the Federal Reserve claim to hold "title" on my future production. I have become, in contract law, chattel to the banking system. Well, I decided to return the favor, since all of the central banks are owned by the same few people, and lay claim to 30 tons of central bank gold. You see, all they gave me for my purchase was a very fancy receipt. The gold is being held for me "free of charge" in the Federal Reserve vaults in New York. With 5 business days notice, they will let me see it if I so desire. Nobody ever actually takes delivery is what they keep telling me. Well, let's just say that I am getting the picture that they really don't want to give it up. That's o.k. They have a claim on my family and I. I have a corresponding legal claim on a big chunk of their gold. I have gained peace of mind, so the gold is serving it's purpose for me.
canamami
(03/11/2003; 08:43:38 MDT - Msg ID: 99296)
************353.90************
Price guess: It's basically a guess. Gold will rebound a bit when the latest bout of suppression eases up a bit, whilst the tensions, uncertainty and physical shortage continue; however, the cap will generally stay in place for the next few days. Net result: a modest increase from current levels by Thursday's close, to $353.90.

I bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold for a number of reasons. First, I dislike rigged markets, and the purchase was my contribution to breaking the suppression, which harmed me (and others) greatly until I acquired the means to contribute to its end. Second, I want to secure a strong non-currency asset, which will not be delisted or hperinflated. Third, I want to benefit from rise in the POG, to which the purchase of CB gold will contribute by breaking the conspiracy.

Most important, I want to make such a big score on the gold market that I will be invited on CNBC as an expert trader. Then I will use part of the gold to make jewellry to impress and get a date with one of the thirtysomething babes on CNBC (assuming one is still single), who are there solely due to their investment acumen and not because they are appealing to that market segment of middle-aged male investors who are entering their money-obsession years, but haven't lost all their libido yet.
Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 08:48:49 MDT - Msg ID: 99297)
ATTN: Sir Canamami ---- your Price was PREVIOUSLY taken !
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlcanamami (03/11/03; 08:43:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 99296)
************353.90************
===
Please check the LINK above and TRY AGAIN !
<;-)
Neubie
(03/11/2003; 08:50:42 MDT - Msg ID: 99298)
****$346.4****
I bought the 30 tons. I needed it to pave my driveway.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/11/2003; 09:01:41 MDT - Msg ID: 99299)
Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Alert Investors
PRIMARY TRENDS

Just as the primary trend in gold is up as shown by our nearby
graph, the primary trend in stocks is down. If you diversify your
portfolio with gold, you not only gain by being in gold, you save what
you otherwise would have lost in the stock market. Richard Russell, the
well-regarded long-time investment analyst who has correctly and
consistently forecasted the direction of both markets, says the stock
market and gold will cross in the 2000 to 3000 area
. Think about that
for a moment. What will that mean to your portfolio if not properly
diversified with gold? What will it mean if it is?

Gold to diversify your portfolio is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 09:02:41 MDT - Msg ID: 99300)
TAA TAAA TAAAAAAAAAAAA --- Less than THREE Hours to Go !!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlCHECK out the POG CONTEST entries at the ABOVE LINK and MAKE you Prognostication SOON !
Tick Tock !!
<;-)
canamami
(03/11/2003; 09:07:13 MDT - Msg ID: 99301)
*************$354.00***********
Sorry, when I checked I didn't see the other bid. So, I'll move up 0.10 and pick $354.00
White Rose
(03/11/2003; 09:07:28 MDT - Msg ID: 99302)
*****352.00*****
I took the gold to take it out of the system. I took the gold to shock the established order. I remember when one German bank made a bid for one entire US Treasury auction of gold that caused the wave of gold purchases leading to the 1979/1980 bull market. If someone of my modest means (and no concievable connection with the nation of Portugal) can walk way with 30 tons of Portuguese gold, then anything in the gold world is possible. Even $4,000 an oz. gold.
Alberta Rose
(03/11/2003; 09:07:59 MDT - Msg ID: 99303)
*****$354.60*****
It's a secret, so please don't tell. I bought the 30 tonnes of gold from the Bank of Portugal. I am an agent for a provisional government that is plotting independence from a tyrannical, snearing Prime Minister and his corrupt government. With the gold, certain highly-placed persons intend to announce that they are separating from this country and will form a new country, somewhere to the north of Montana. This gold will act as a basis for our new currency the Rose, which will be convertible to gold. We have plentiful natural resources; we can no longer stand to see them frittered away by in inept, corrupt government. Portugal will be paid for the gold in oil. The only problem is, the gold currently resides in the vaults of a certain institution in America, and we anticipate a certain amount of difficulty in retrieving it. However, America is is presently experiencing a natural gas and energy shortage; we would be willing to help them out of their difficulties, providing the U.S. government proves reasonable about our gold. Wish us luck.
Student of the forum
(03/11/2003; 09:15:46 MDT - Msg ID: 99304)
******346.0*******
Because I don't think we will be bombing yet, and the POG will just languish until the bombs fall.
silver star
(03/11/2003; 09:33:19 MDT - Msg ID: 99306)
****356.1****
The discrepancy between the POG and share price is simply that of lack of investor confidence. Economic and war worries have seriously erroded peoples confidence to the point where some catalyst is needed to sway in one direction or the other. POG is stable now, share prices are falling, trends that should remain in place until that catalyst appears.

SS
TownCrier
(03/11/2003; 09:38:05 MDT - Msg ID: 99307)
King dollar being dethroned... HEADLINE: Fannie Mae to issue first foreign currency debt
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=2361495LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage finance agency Fannie Mae said on Tuesday it would raise funds in a foreign currency for the first time, under a new short-term debt programme that will run from April 7.

Government-sponsored Fannie Mae said it expected initially to issue in euros, sterling, Swiss francs and yen. Other currencies may be added if investor demand is there. Its new FX Discount Notes will have maturities of between five and 183 days.

..."While there are several issuers capable of maintaining large liquid issuance, Fannie Mae's entrance into this market should help satisfy investors' appetite for securities capable of being issued in large size and customised to the maturity date and in the currency of their choosing," Treasurer Linda Knight said.

...All proceeds will be swapped into dollars, and Fannie Mae's target funding level will be net of the swap cost. Dealers for the programme will be authorised to execute currency swaps on the agency's behalf, Knight said.

Knight said Fannie Mae continued to target a cost of funds equal to or less than it would pay in dollars -- currently around eight to 10 basis points below Libor for one-month to six-month debt.

Fannie Mae will also continue marketing its long-dated, dollar benchmark notes -- large, liquid bonds sold quarterly which are widely accepted as a surrogate for U.S. Treasuries -- in Europe and Asia...
[...HOWEVER...]
...The agency said it would drop 30-year bond sales from its calendar, but might still sell debt of greater than 10 years' duration on a reverse enquiry basis -- in response to specific requests from investors. The U.S. Treasury stopped selling 30-year debt in late 2001.

-------(see url for full text)------

This reminds me of the creative financing techniques in foreign currency that the U.S. Treasury explored in the 1960's - 70's when the dollar was badly losing favor.

Most notable, you see in the final excerpt that even Fannie Mae is now dumping all efforts to market new issues of 30-year debt. You can be sure that this is only because buyers have a waning appetite for consuming this degree of value risk on long-term dollar-debt holdings.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today for a prudent diversification into the timeless hard asset value offered by gold coins and bullion.

R.
Bluesmovers
(03/11/2003; 09:40:38 MDT - Msg ID: 99308)
*** $357.70 ****
Just a guess on the gold price contest....

Any ideas why Platinum has been climbing to fast lately?

Technical reasons, of course, because there are lots of long term fundamental reasons, just as there are for gold.

-ja -iii-|
The Hoople
(03/11/2003; 09:48:57 MDT - Msg ID: 99309)
*** 354.2 ***
I bought the 30 tons of gold from Portugal because of the pickle I'm in. You see my uncle Larry leased me 30 tons and I sold it to my brother in law for his jewelry store. I took the money and went long dollars and short yen per my financial planner. Hoo boy was that a bad idea and now I don't even have the gold or dollars to pay uncle Larry back. To make matters worse my uncle is hammering me to pay the gold back because he also leased the same gold to my brother and his sister in law. He said his bosses at some ESF corporation were getting nervous. Sounds kinda mafia-like to me because he kept screaming about some Buffet guy that warned him of financial weapons of mass destruction. Now I don't have the money to buy Portugal's gold but a real nice guy at John Price Money (JPM they call it) is offering a bridge loan through some off-shore trust. He swears it is on the up and up and several major corporations have already used it. The fine print is 20 pages long but he assures me I can't lose no matter if the gold price goes up or down. How do I get myself in these messes? If I ever get myself out of this mess I'm going to buy me a little place out in the middle of nowhere. I hope I never see another guy with an Armani suit and pair of Gucci shoes as long as I live. And I think I'll kick uncle Larry's ass when this is all over too.




Shy Fox
(03/11/2003; 09:52:30 MDT - Msg ID: 99310)
From OvS, aka Shy Fox ****$351.2****
To the honourable Dames and Knights of this august oaken
roundtable.

I finally decided to come out of my foxhole. It isn't just for the sake of acquiring another gold or silver coin;
after all, you just took delivery of 30 tons of Portuguese
gold that you piled on the stack you already possess!

A fox likes to play a good game. A shy fox likes to do it
out of the limelight. But there comes a time when all the
chicken-counting becomes a bit of a bore -- so finally you
decide to make a stand on principle. Stand up to be counted.
Expose yourself to the bullet of the hunter. Well, perhaps
dodge the coming bullet at the last moment ... you are a fox
after all ...

There are of course goldlovers who keep on hoarding gold
to the dying end of them, believing, they can take it with
them to money-heaven. There are others, the shrewd ones, who
cannot function without disaster insurance, who need that
fluctuating minimum percentage core holding. But let us also
appreciate the man who prudently retreats with a nestegg of
nuggets or a bunker full of goldbars, yet, cannot await the
day when a reasonable investment climate again allows him to
plunge headlong and fullsteam (the oldfashioned American
way) into creative and worth-enhancing economic and cultural activity.

Let us pray for a sustainable recovery from financially
distorted markets and a return to a sound fiscal policy tied
to gold. May the wardrums subside without having irreparably
destroyed international and intercultural good will.

In case my essay should win a coin, I hereby pledge to
lease it out, free of interest, to the formally esteemed and current Chairman of the Governors of the Federal Reserve: Alan Greenspan. May he re-acquaint himself by touch
and sight with "real" money and thereby do justice to his
former self that valued gold, and to his ancestors, who
possibly would not have survived without it.

Respectfully yours,

Shy Fox

copyright (c) , via CPM, Denver, Co, USA, by OvS aka Shy Fox





Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 09:52:51 MDT - Msg ID: 99311)
TAA TAAA TAAAAAAAAAAAA --- Approximately TWO Hours to Go !!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlCHECK out the POG CONTEST entries at the ABOVE LINK and MAKE you Prognostication SOON !
Tick Tock !!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 10:02:05 MDT - Msg ID: 99313)
Sir Bluesmovers ---
I believe that it is because of the posting of a LINK to another WEB PAGE that your original post was "modified" and if you continue, you may be "banished" from the Castle.
<;-)
Bluesmovers
(03/11/2003; 10:06:24 MDT - Msg ID: 99314)
**** $357.70 ****
Same price guess as before, but I apologize for not including a message statement and babbling something about Platinum instead.

I believe that this is a good guess regarding the settlement price as things are volatile, manipulated by strong unseen players, and likely to remain close to the current price for the next two days. The war will probably not quite be "on" by Thursday, but that just makes this contest all the more exciting. The 30 tonnes from Portugal are actually already in the hands of Christopher Columbus who jury-rigged up a really really old time machine he found in Jamaica in the 15th century and came back to our time to buy it all because it was the cheapest he could find! He had a little help from me, of course, and I don't really need this contest because he and I already own the whole world through our subsequent transactions we made in 2113!

-ja -iii-|
Achilles
(03/11/2003; 10:07:06 MDT - Msg ID: 99315)
****$356.8****
I am the one who bought the gold
A score and ten of tonnes all told
I must admit I have it not
But BOP will get my lot

I should have known the plan they hatched
Would have so many strings attached
It seems the gold is still abroad
Swapped last year with House of Saud

"You need not fear" they smugly said
"Take this Paper here instead
A promise you will get your stash
Now kindly give us all your cash"

"But Paper burns as you well know
Get me my bars, you'll see your dough"
So there it stood and stayed that way
Until the news from Uruguay

"The IMF is getting tough
About that silly interest stuff
So we will trade you thirty tonnes
Of precious gold for fiat funds"

The trade went through, I signed my name
But on it goes this Banker's game
I will not see a single ounce
Til they make sure my check don't bounce!
Felix the Cat
(03/11/2003; 10:20:30 MDT - Msg ID: 99316)
****$354.3****
Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tons of Portugal Gold, and I did it because beside the golden toilet, I would like to build a golden bedroom too, true, I am the one who live in HK. Perhaps, I need more for golden kitchen, yes? As it is in a right price!

F. C
cockerel1
(03/11/2003; 10:20:31 MDT - Msg ID: 99317)
Who bought the Gold?
And God called unto Noah to build an ark. "Make it big enough to hold two of every species and make it secure for a long journey."

So Noah gathered his sons and related to them the words of the vision. He then gave each of his sons a specific task.

To his oldest and trusted son he assigned the task of gathering Gods "children", two of each species.

To his next son he assigned the task of designing the ark itself. "It must be big enough, and sturdy enough to accomplish God's work."

To his third son, he gave instructions to gather enough food for every living creature on the ark, and to ensure provisions for at least forty days.

And to his youngest and most beloved son he said. "Son, I want you to go search all of the lands and find something to provide a solid foundation for a new and just society, after God has cleansed the world of all its evil."

This was indeed a daunting task. What possible foundation could be found that would prove indestructible to the "wiles" of man?

He travelled first to Great Britain. They offered him Sterling and a cup of tea.

He hopped across the channel to France. They told him not to worry. God's threat was not a serious threat, and gave him a glass of wine.

He went to Spain. They offered him Music and a glass of sangria.

Next he went to Russia. They offered him mafia-styled protection and enough vodka to last a lifetime.

He went to Japan. They offered him the deeds to their homeland and saki.

Everywhere he went, he was offered something, but nothing seemed to "Fit the Bill."

Finally, he received a phone call from his brother responsible for designing the ark.

"I'm having trouble with the stabilization. I need ballast for the hull. Forget about your task and help me, for if the ark does not fulfill its journey, all will be lost."

"I will do my best." He replied.

Before he could give any thought to this new task, he received a call from his oldest brother. "I'm having trouble securing two of every species and I need something that I can barter with. It will need to be acceptable in India where I need two elephants, China has two pandas I need, and in Australia, they have two kangaroos that will complete the list. If I don't get them in time for the sailing, God's work will not be complete. Forget about your other tasks and help me."

Things were beginning to "pile up." He was under stress. What could he do?

Just then, his phone rang for a third time. It was the last brother. "I need to trade for food. We need rice, sugar, salt, coffee, tea, and other staples. If I cannot secure these essentials, we will all perish long before the ark comes to rest. Please drop everything else and give me help."

The young son, dropped to his knees and offered a prayer to his God.

"I am faced with the impossible. Time is not on my side. If I accomplish one task, the other essentials will suffer and your work will be in ruins."

Just then, the phone rang for a fourth time. "There is 30 tons of gold for sale in Portugal. Use it to barter for the animals, trade some of it for the food you will need and use the rest in the keel of the ark for ballast."

"Who is this?" asked the youngest son.

"Jim Sinclair. You're welcome."






Draco
(03/11/2003; 10:21:13 MDT - Msg ID: 99318)
30 Tonnes of Gold
*****352.70*****Contrary to popular belief, the 30 tonnes of gold no longer in Portugal was not BOUGHT by me. I LEASED it! Since I did not have the 250+ million on hand at the time, I executed a one year lease at .36%. How could anyone turn down that kind of an interest rate? For less than one million (spread out over one year), I now control 30 tons of gold. I will now watch gold climb and climb in price over the course of the next year and sell it all for a nice profit. Then, like the big boys do, I will roll over the lease year after year. When the Bank of Portugal finally snaps to, I will tell them I no longer have the gold, and will have to settle in fiat just like the big boys do. This will give me a several years of using their 250 million to invest in more gold and some good 10 banger gold stocks. What a country!
1340cc
(03/11/2003; 10:28:14 MDT - Msg ID: 99319)
Cockerell post #99317
The PTB search no more. This is the best! I needed a good laugh right now. Thanks Cockerell. I didn't see it comming.
Shanti
(03/11/2003; 10:32:16 MDT - Msg ID: 99320)
***********$356.6************

I bought the 30 tons of gold from Portugal because;

As Prez i see all my departments seems to be in some kind of financial trouble. Even some of our depts. selling our gold to extend prosperity. At least that is what they intend. Wel if they sell it, I buy it, for the purpose of saving our nation i ordered to buy the gold with our famous cheap confetti. (Just don't tell our departments, as if they where informed, they will probably sell it as well)

Sal-Om !
Shanti

Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 10:36:43 MDT - Msg ID: 99321)
Sir Cockerell === Please give me a POG number too !
Cockerell post #99317
===
<;-)
fooledUS
(03/11/2003; 10:40:54 MDT - Msg ID: 99322)
30 tonnes of gold
I bought the gold from Portugal. Bob Rubin, here.

Years ago ('95), Bill Clinton asked me for a financial scheme that would 1) make him look good and 2) put the screws to his successor. While scrounging for ideas, I called my old friend Larry Summers. Larry had this thesis on suppressing the gold price to confound the markets. We dusted off the thesis and put it to work via ESF. I couldn't have dreamed it would work as well as it has. But the jig is just about up.

So, what's with the 30 tonnes of gold? Well, Mr. Greenspan is retiring soon and Clinton promised him a golden parachute. One tonne will do. The rest is for me and my posse. You didn't think I would concoct such a mess without having an EXIT STRATEGY?!? Time to catch my overseas flight, suckers.
fooledUS
(03/11/2003; 10:44:54 MDT - Msg ID: 99323)
**** $356.0 ****
Forgot to attach my guess.
Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 10:46:44 MDT - Msg ID: 99324)
Attn: Sir FooledUS -----
fooledUS (03/11/03; 10:40:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 99322)
===
Hey Bob Rubin, How about a POG number too ?
<;-)
cockerel1
(03/11/2003; 10:48:21 MDT - Msg ID: 99325)
POG
My price is $354.20
MidEastGold
(03/11/2003; 10:48:48 MDT - Msg ID: 99326)
*******346.5*******
The Bush/Greenspan War II will be fought with the new weapons of mass destruction (A ballooning federal budget deficit and a printing press). Since the FED is the lender of last resorts, they are required to cover all federal government overdrafts. They can also determine what interest the government has to pay.

In the first Bush/Greenspan war, Greenspan may a KO punch with higher rates and a mild recession in an election year. This time Bush hasn't waited to get hit, but with the help of Congress has started writing checks with vigor and they will continue to do so. Bush would rather imulate Roosevelt than Hoover.

O we'll get our little tax refunds and rebates while the value of the dollar sinks. And we'll have jobs, which will pay relatively less.

The good news is what we owe will be relatively less, the bad news is what we got will too>

So get gold, maybe a little silver. Fiat, I've got an 100 Mark coin (aluminum minted 1924) .
Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 10:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 99327)
Thanks Bob !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 10:51:27 MDT - Msg ID: 99328)
SORRY Sir Cockerell -- that is a "TAKEN" number -- GO to the LINK !
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlcockerel1 (03/11/03; 10:48:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 99325)
POG
My price is $354.20
===
Try AGAIN !
<;-)
CoBra(too)
(03/11/2003; 10:59:11 MDT - Msg ID: 99329)
*** My Guess is as Good as the PPT's***
On any other day.

Being pretty sure that nobody comes close to my POG guess, as the PTB will ever do what they feel they have to do. As the COMEX is a dysfunctional paper price setting outfit at the margin, some friends of this august Forum have depicted a new name - CRIMEX. And these folks are living up to these standards easily, as they openly admit that the physical gold held for delivery is only a pittance to potential delivery requirements. So CRIMEX in reality is a semblance of the real thing! A fractional Gold Fiat Banking Scheme, or a mirage.

I can actually prove my thesis, as it was I, who tried to effect delivery of the 30 tons sold by the Portugese CB. Remember I'm cb2 and all they could come up with was the lame excuse that a crummy miner called ABX will have to come up with first - to pay back in kind or specie - called pay dirt in other important earth sciences making the world go round - not like a Johann Strauss Walz, but anyway in a CO2 spewing combustion engine.

Oh well, the 30 tons were already accounted for as receivables by the Portuge(e)se, seems they've sold 'em forward in spades and now are pregnantly awaiting re-delivery of spot deferred metal by the guys who sold twice what isn't theirs - ever.

OK, they can cross Portu-geese, but I will insist on delivery in kind ... not geese, I will insist to have the gander ... Uh, biologically, I may be wrong, so I'll devour the golden eggs and gobble up the gander.

... No joking - I'll pick - now let me see, is the crucial date a PPT day or not? *** 354.90 *** - Chicken, me! cb2
cockerel1
(03/11/2003; 11:01:40 MDT - Msg ID: 99330)
Revised POG
My price is $354.50
Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 11:09:47 MDT - Msg ID: 99331)
POG CONTEST ---- LAST CALL !!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlLESS than ONE HOUR to go before Entry DEADLINE !
<;-)
Shermag
(03/11/2003; 11:13:51 MDT - Msg ID: 99333)
****$357.2****
Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it because I needed to get the gold into STRONG HANDS, out of the grasp of the manipulators. They cannot use this in their price manipulation schemes any longer.
Wky_Woodsman
(03/11/2003; 11:19:48 MDT - Msg ID: 99334)
CONTEST
*****$349.0******

I must admit that I am the one who has the 30 tons of Portugal gold. I was sitting here about six miles up the coast from Pearl Harbor one day, talking story with a couple of my "Portagee" friends. We were talking about the high prices in the islands and the low wages. One of them said he knew someone in his family who had connections to the big bank in Portugal. We all smiled and knew we had a solution. A lifetime of ease inside a large treasure chest.
Into our outrigger we went, nothing but ocean between Oahu and Lisbon harbor. Sure enough, "the cuzz" said we could have the gold at 1%. So into the outrigger again and back to Oahu but "jeesh, 'mo harder " paddling back.
So here we sit again, talking story but one problem. Since we went there and back, the price of gas has gone up and continues to get higher and higher. Looks like we are going to have to use all of the gold to buy gas for our jacked up four wheelers. Life is one "tough buggah".

Wky
silvergolong
(03/11/2003; 11:25:18 MDT - Msg ID: 99335)
***** $350.30 *****
Yes--I'm the one who did it--I'm the one who bought that Portuguese gold. What's that? You can hear me, but you can't make out my face? Let me describe myself.

I am the Indian goldsmith who bought a dozen 10-tola bars to pound into jewelry. I am the Indian father who bought that jewelry for my daughter's dowry. I am the chinese entrepreneur who bought two 50-gram bars to test my newfound right to buy gold. I am the japanese housewife who bought the 1-kilo bar that will help secure my family's financial future. I am the Italian artisan who bought the 1-oz bars which will be the raw material for my imagination. I am the devout muslim who bought the gold dinar coins because the Koran tells me that credit money is the only lawful money. l am the american cubicle-dweller who has finally sold his underperforming stocks and bought a little sack of 1 oz. American Eagles out of disgust with the self-aggrandizing blowhard corporate executives who have greedily lined their own pockets at their shareholders' and employees' expense. I am the electronics manufacturer who bought the 10-ounce bar which will be pressed into foil to create the non-corroding contacts for my circuit boards. I am the computer user who bought that circuit board in order to connect to the internet, where I learn the truth about money and finance that TV, newspapers, and radio can't--or won't--tell me. I am everyone who has repudiated the Wall Street-Washington-London fiat paper money scam. I am all races, all creeds, all colors, all income levels, all lifestyles, and all beliefs.

And I will use my paper money to buy whatever gold you have to sell me at this price, until you have no more left to sell.
Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 11:25:52 MDT - Msg ID: 99336)
POG CONTEST ---- VERY LAST CALL !!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlApproximately ONE HALF HOUR to go before Entry DEADLINE !
<;-)
contrarian
(03/11/2003; 11:30:27 MDT - Msg ID: 99337)
***353.7***
Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it because..."I'm Crazy, I'm crazy for feeling so lonely �
I'm crazy for trying and crazy for crying
And I'm crazy for loving you."

Yes, indeed, I'm a certifiable lunatic�in love with 30 tons of fun! After I escaped from the asylum, while still in my straitjacket and drooling, I stood at the Portuguese depository window, and, although difficult, managed to fill my arms full of gold. Greedily eyeing my paper dollars, the cashier had a officious look, and commented how I must have lost all my marbles to hand over all my valuable paper and accept this "barbarous relic". As I opened up the knapsack containing my paper, she started twitching uncontrollably, the smell of the paper wafting over to her welcoming nostrils.

"Who needs this barbarous relic!" she screamed, throwing the gold bars at me. "I need wallpaper!" As she seized my paper from me, she continued, "Give me fives, tens, twenties, and franklins, stocks and bonds, REITs, LEAPs, I'll take any type of IOU. I'll take the pretty reds, greens, and pinks for the newly renovated country kitchen. I'll use the larger sized stocks for my recently appointed French provincial living room. While I'm at it, I'll use the fives, tens, and twenties in the toilet--I ran out of Charmin. I'll use the T-bills for my home mortgage refinanced SUV car port, to soak up the Pennzoil." And finally she added, "I'll use the extra for my Caribbean vacation."

By the time I was done and she had handed over the gold, she was shrieking, writing in ecstacy on the floor, covered in paper, exultant, all the while throwing it in the air in hysterical heaps which covered her like a ticker tape parade--completely incoherent, yet strangely satisfied.

Well, I had no objections, and was glad to give up my Charmin. Looking back on it now, although I barely escaped from her clutches with my life, and my 30 tons of fun, I think if you wait and see, you may find there's a "method to my madness"...yes, gold, I'm crazy for loving you!
Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 11:36:31 MDT - Msg ID: 99338)
Tick Tock, Tick Tock !!! ONLY minutes to GO in the POG CONTEST !
http://www.usagold.com/contest.html<;-)
Guided
(03/11/2003; 11:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 99340)
***** $390.0 *****
In memory of that old Ford (with the dollar sign).
Cometose
(03/11/2003; 11:54:19 MDT - Msg ID: 99341)
***342.00*****
Yes , it was me who stole the portugese GOLD......

Actually It was an accident.....

I accidentally happened upon a time machine which I got into and I accidentally set it off and it got stuck in a glitch where it was gyrating wildly repeatedly as if stuck in a warp or a skip on a CD....It kept stopping and starting in three locations......

One of them was the grassy knoll in 63......
One of them was Jesus tomb shortly after his dissappearance from there
and the Portuguese CB holding this gold...

I didn't understand why it was happening or why I was there
It made me quite nervous as I thought I was going to be stuck there forever.....in this triangulated time warp...
I got off the Time machine while in my 20 minute window for the Portugal location and I was inspecting the gold ....quite beautiful and heavy ....
the Machine disappeared and I didn't know what year it was... and apprehensive that I might be stuck eternally in a vault with little ventillation , I used my Cell phone ,got information and called the USS ENTERPRISE . Captain Kirk answered and I told him my dilemma and he had Scotty beam my up .....It was totally unintentional but I was standing on the gold when the transaction took place .
Captain Kirk and the crew have been very hospitable and Scotty has been informing me of some of the Technological breakthroughs that happen in the future related to GOLD ....
SIMPLY FACSINATING>>>>> I've decided to hang with this bunch for a while ......we haven't decided what we're going to do with the gold...
PorterSweden
(03/11/2003; 11:56:44 MDT - Msg ID: 99342)
*** $1750,50 ***
Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it because hackers cracking a number of data systems acknowledged that

Saddam Hussein would soon be buying enormous amounts of gold before his departure.

They also could confirm the ill transparent derivatives market, made up of thin air, was near default soon ending with an over night neutron explosion.

Bullion banks, they told me, were also overextended and secretly refused to return leased gold to a number of Central Banks. An intercepted mail unveiled "... you will get your lease rate only as long as no other Central Bank do not demand a return, then you will never get anything!

I�ll run and buy some more!!!
timbervision
(03/11/2003; 11:59:25 MDT - Msg ID: 99343)
******360.70******
I was the one who bought the 30 tons of Portuguese mould. I'm going to spread it over the whole stinking mess of lies and hope that through some process of fermentation new growth will erupt, leading to a massive regeneration of life and real value.
Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 12:12:10 MDT - Msg ID: 99344)
ENTRIES to the POG CONTEST are now CLOSED !
Thanks ALL for the Prognostications and GREAT "confessions" !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 12:17:02 MDT - Msg ID: 99345)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !! Listing of ENTRIES !!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.html
FINAL LISTING of Entries as of TUESDAY, 3/11/03, 12:12 Denver Time !

AND SPECIAL to Sir PorterSweden for "MAKING my DAY" with that last second entry !!!

*** $1750,5 *** PorterSweden (3/11/03; 11:56:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 99342)

**** $444.0 **** silvercollector (3/8/03; 08:01:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 99122)

**** $342.0 **** Cometose (3/11/03; 11:54:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 99341)

**** $426.0 **** drawmax (3/11/03; 04:23:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 99280)

**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)

**** $404.5 **** Operative (3/4/03; 13:21:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98861)

**** $402.5 **** White Hills (03/10/03; 11:15:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 99208)

**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)

**** $399.0 **** Ananse (03/06/03; 21:16:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99033)

**** $398.0 **** Montana (03/07/03; 13:17:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 99092)

**** $392.5 **** physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824)

**** $390.0 **** Guided (3/11/03; 11:50:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 99339)

**** $388.8 **** Believer (3/4/03; 17:29:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98891)

**** $387.6 **** misetich (3/8/03; 09:34:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 99124)

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (02/28/03; 06:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98581)
**** $385.4 **** slingshot (02/27/03; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98555)

**** $381.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (02/27/03; 10:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98525

**** $380.2 **** goldquest (3/8/03; 00:29:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 99112)

**** $378.0 **** Mountain Top (02/27/03; 17:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98543)

**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)
**** $377.7 **** Roccoco (3/4/03; 18:59:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98902)

**** $376.1 **** wiley (3/9/03; 17:51:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 99188)

**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)

**** $374.8 **** TS (03/10/03; 14:53:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 99226)

**** $372.7 **** Noble1 (03/03/03; 20:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98819)

**** $371.0 **** J-Bullion (03/07/03; 14:10:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 99095)

**** $370.0 **** Sundeck (03/09/03; 21:21:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 99196)

**** $369.5 **** Moegold (03/07/03; 09:43:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 99074)

**** $369.0 **** Goldilox (03/07/03; 18:18:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 99101)

**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)

**** $367.6 **** DoubleEagle (03/10/03; 16:53:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 99235)

**** $366.5 **** 1340cc (3/9/03; 10:00:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 99166)

**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)

**** $364.7 **** Rocketman (03/10/03; 17:15:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 99237)

**** $363.5 **** Asaf (03/10/03; 14:08:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 99221)

**** $363.2 **** madgreek (03/10/03; 12:38:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 99211)

**** $362.4 **** Boilermaker (3/4/03; 15:25:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98876)

**** $361.4 **** R Powell (3/9/03; 10:51:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 99169)

**** $361.0 **** Gold Standard (3/11/03; 03:08:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 99278)

**** $360.8 **** VanRip (03/03/03; 19:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98814)
**** $360.7 **** timbervision (3/11/03; 11:59:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 99343)

**** $360.3 **** Au-some (03/10/03; 19:04:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 99242)

**** $360.0 **** Socrates964 (03/10/03; 20:54:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99254)
**** $359.9 **** Gandalf the White (Sir Erayboy) (03/11/03; 08:27:54MT msg#: 99294)

**** $359.2 **** gusto (3/9/03; 06:22:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 99160)

**** $358.8 **** The Knife (03/08/03; 11:58:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 99131)

**** $358.5 **** Woodie (3/8/03; 02:58:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 99118)

**** $358.3 **** Magister Aurelius (03/11/03; 08:15:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99291)

**** $358.0 **** Dirk (03/10/03; 18:19:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 99239)

**** $357.7 **** Bluesmovers (03/11/03; 09:32:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 99308)

**** $357.5 **** seagull (3/8/03; 21:29:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 99153)

**** $357.2 **** Shermag (3/11/03; 11:13:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 99333)

**** $357.0 **** Scarab (03/10/03; 21:57:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 99262)

**** $356.8 **** Achilles (03/11/03; 10:07:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 99315)

**** $356.6 **** Shanti (03/11/03; 10:32:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 99320)
**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)
**** $356.4 **** Just waking up (3/11/03; 00:47:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 99274)

**** $356.2 **** spook69 (3/11/03; 05:10:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 99284)
**** $356.1 **** silver star (03/11/03; 09:33:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 99306)
**** $356.0 **** fooledUS (03/11/03; 10:44:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 99323)

**** $355.6 **** mudr (03/10/03; 20:33:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 99249)
**** $355.5 **** Tevye (03/10/03; 12:14:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99210)

**** $355.1 **** a nation of one (03/10/03; 20:54:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 99255)
**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)
**** $354.9 **** CoBra(too) (03/11/03; 10:59:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 99329)

**** $354.7 **** RILEY (03/06/03; 13:11:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 99016)
**** $354.6 **** Alberta Rose (03/11/03; 09:07:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 99303)
**** $354.5 **** cockerel1 (03/11/03; 10:48:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 99330)

**** $354.3 **** Felix the Cat (03/11/03; 10:20:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 99316)
**** $354.2 **** The Hoople (03/11/03; 09:48:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 99309)

**** $354.0 **** canamami (03/11/03; 09:07:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 99301)
**** $353.9 **** Hang Tuff (03/11/03; 00:01:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 99271)

**** $353.7 **** contrarian (3/11/03; 11:30:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 99337)

**** $353.5 **** NTgeo (3/9/03; 16:56:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 99181)

**** $353.2 **** goldenpeace (3/11/03; 04:59:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 99283)

**** $353.0 **** Lothar of the Hill People (03/10/03; 13:52:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 99219)

**** $352.7 **** Draco (03/11/03; 10:21:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 99318)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $352.0 **** White Rose (03/11/03; 09:07:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 99302)

**** $351.5 **** balzac (03/08/03; 09:47:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 99127)

**** $351.2 **** Shy Fox (03/11/03; 09:52:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 99310)

**** $351.0 **** Albatros (03/11/03; 08:22:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 99293)
**** $350.9 **** Truthcaster (03/11/03; 07:23:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99288)

**** $350.5 **** Waverider (03/11/03; 08:08:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 99289)

**** $350.3 **** silvergolong (3/11/03; 11:25:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 99335)

**** $350.0 **** goldfool (3/9/03; 13:41:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 99178)

**** $349.6 **** Max Rabbitz (3/9/03; 08:41:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 99163)

**** $349.0 **** Wky_Woodsman (3/11/03; 11:19:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 99334)

**** $348.7 **** Econoclast (03/11/03; 08:31:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99295)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $346.5 **** MidEastGold (03/11/03; 10:48:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 99326)
**** $346.4 **** Neubie (03/11/03; 08:50:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 99298)

**** $346.0 **** Student of the forum (03/11/03; 09:15:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 99304)

**** $344.0 **** monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787)

**** $340.0 **** kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)

**** $335.2 **** Bizkit (03/07/03; 15:31:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 99096)
===
<;-)
Black Blade
(03/11/2003; 13:02:21 MDT - Msg ID: 99346)
Americans going deeper in debt
http://www.sacbee.com/content/business/story/6244044p-7198349c.html
Nearly half of consumers make minimum -- or no -- payments on credit card balances, a study finds.

Snippit:

Almost half of U.S. consumers are making only minimum payments -- or no payments at all -- on their credit cards, a new credit survey shows. And a similarly large volume -- some 44 percent -- are continuing to take on debt because they don't have enough cash to pay ongoing expenses. The dire outlook is part of the latest Cambridge Consumer Credit Index, a monthly gauge of consumer attitudes toward credit and a reflection of the nation's mounting individual debt. On Friday, the Federal Reserve released its monthly survey of consumer credit for January, showing consumer debt rose sharply at an annualized rate of 9.1 percent, the fastest pace since November of 2001. "What people don't know is that a large portion of the increase in debt was involuntary -- that 44 percent are going further into debt knowing in advance they won't be able to pay when the bills come in," said Jordan Goodman, spokesman for the index, an affiliate of the Cambridge Consumer Credit Counseling Corp. of Islandia, NY.


Black Blade: Can't count on the consumer to carry the load in this economy. It's going to get much worse too. Can you say "New Great Depression"? I knew you could. "Grim"

Black Blade
(03/11/2003; 13:22:20 MDT - Msg ID: 99347)
A risky reaction to pension losses
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/retirement/2003-03-09-pensions_x.htm
Snippit:

While it's no secret the bear market has devastated many U.S. companies' pension funds, the extent of the damage now is becoming clear in Securities and Exchange Commission filings. The annual financial filings also reveal how companies are reacting to their pension fund losses. And experts say that could be of as much interest to investors as the severity of the funds' drops.About 90% of S&P 500 companies' pension funds were underfunded at the end of 2002, estimates David Zion, accounting analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston. That would be the first time in a decade that pension assets dropped below future retirement obligations.

The twist is when companies average pension profits over several years to boost their corporate profits in years when the pensions actually fall in value. Several companies � including Darden, Guidant and Lehman � did this last year even as their fund assets fell below the minimum required to pay future retirement obligations, Zion says. This legal but controversial practice lets companies overstate earnings and defer costly pension repairs, he says. Zion says the $219 billion cumulative earnings reported by S&P 500 companies in 2001 would have fallen 69% to $68.7 billion had the companies reflected the actual returns of their pension funds. In 2000, he says earnings would have been 10% lower at $388 billion.


Black Blade: The games continue while the poor wage slave frets over his or her hopes and dreams of a secure retirement after toiling for years. Perhaps cardboard boxes, shopping carts, and pet food will be the investments of the future. Hmmm�

TownCrier
(03/11/2003; 13:39:02 MDT - Msg ID: 99348)
Bleak outlook for stocks, bonds
A financial advisor featured just now on CNN gave very clear guidance to the views with a level of frankness that I have not seen in mainstream media for a long time. The advisor said people should NOT be invested in stocks at this time, and furthermore, that they should NOT be invested in long-term bonds, favoring instead only money-market type investments in short maturity bonds.

The advisor openly wondered why people were so reluctant to exit and cut their losses in such things as the stock market which is so obviously troubled.

With open talk like this beginning in the mainstream, it is only a matter of time before the masses rediscover the ageless security of gold. After all, the yields on short-term Treasuries are not competitive with the real (street) rate of inflation.

Beat the rush. Call USAGOLD-Centennial today.

R.
Eleanor of Aquitaine
(03/11/2003; 13:39:31 MDT - Msg ID: 99349)
Contest
Well, I missed this contest, but look forward to entering the next one, if there is one. Also, I don't know whether we can vote about the wittiest entry, but Lothar of the Hill People wins my vote...I was laughing so hard when I read his post.
Black Blade
(03/11/2003; 13:41:02 MDT - Msg ID: 99350)
What rebound? Tech firms still slashing jobs
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/technology/2003-03-10-layoffs_x.htm
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO � Job cuts at U.S. technology companies continue despite earlier predictions that the industry had hit bottom in one of its worst downturns ever. In January and February, tech firms announced 23,327 job cuts, including U.S. company cuts here and abroad and U.S. workers cut by foreign firms, says job placement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas. While the pace of new cuts is down, the fact that they're continuing suggests that many companies no longer see signs of a quick industry rebound. Instead, they're hunkering down for a long weak stretch, says Merrill Lynch technology strategist Steve Milunovich.

For workers, more layoffs mean job hunting in a tough market. In Santa Clara County, Silicon Valley's heart, the unemployment rate hit 8.6% in January. One job opening attracts thousands of applicants, says career counselor Patti Wilson. Agilent Technologies last month announced 4,000 job cuts, on top of its previous 8,000. Semiconductor maker Micron Technology announced 1,800 job cuts last month. IBM, Apple Computer, Palm Computing, National Semiconductor and BMC Software recently announced cuts. U.S. tech companies have cut more than 500,000 jobs since 2000.


Black Blade: So much for the "New Economy" and talk of a "New Paradigm". Meanwhile the "Bone Pile" grows.

ElGordo
(03/11/2003; 13:45:36 MDT - Msg ID: 99351)
Airlines could lose 70,000 more jobs
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. airlines could slash 70,000 more jobs if there were war with Iraq and the U.S. government did not give the industry more help, the biggest domestic carriers said on Tuesday.

TownCrier
(03/11/2003; 13:48:59 MDT - Msg ID: 99352)
Vote of no confidence in the dollar -- 1960's all over again. Dim shades of de Gaulle and Rueff, with a fiat twist
http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/03/11/rtr903563.htmlHEADLINE: French aide doubts US commitment to strong dollar

ASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) - A French embassy official on Tuesday expressed doubt the United States still favors a "strong dollar," despite Bush administration claims it does.

Jean-Francois Boittin, counselor for commercial and economic affairs at the French Embassy, said recent "off-the- cuff comments" by Treasury Secretary John Snow were more consistent with a, "benign neglect policy (than) a strong dollar policy."

-------(see url for article)-----

Manufacturer/exporters want a weaker domestic currency. Government interventions being being ever at the fore of the economy, pick your form of savings wisely. Choose gold.

Call toll free for prices and assistance: (800)869-5115

R.
Black Blade
(03/11/2003; 13:51:02 MDT - Msg ID: 99353)
Europe 'has �315bn pensions gap'
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1045511507727&p=1012571727189
Snippit:

Europeans need to save an extra �456bn (�315bn) a year to preserve the level of retirement benefits while holding down the cost of public pensions, Europe's leading financial services companies claim.

Black Blade: Euro pensioners have reason to be alarmed too.

Black Blade
(03/11/2003; 14:02:53 MDT - Msg ID: 99354)
Regaining investors' trust to take 3 to 5 years, ex-SEC accountant says
http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascitystar/business/5360489.htm
Snippit:

If the stock market were a movie, the marquee would read "Jaws," says the government's former chief accountant overseeing Wall Street. Cast investors as the nervous, fretful crowd on the beach. "They're not going back in the water until they know that big fish has been caught," said Lynn E. Turner, who served three years as chief accountant at the Securities and Exchange Commission. The bad news from Turner is that it's early in the show. He sees three to five years of repairs before the market looks safe to investors again.

Black Blade: A bit of optimism perhaps?

TownCrier
(03/11/2003; 14:57:24 MDT - Msg ID: 99356)
Contest participation and food for thought
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.htmlGreat turn-out for the contest. Thanks everyone, and thanks to Gandalf for running the show.

To all of the participants: Did you know that ordering gold from the knowledgeable and friendly staff at USAGOLD-Centennial is as quick and easy as placing your contest entry was?

Pick up the phone and find out what professional service is all about. Don't leave things to chance. You can wait until the contest winner is announced, but you can also act now and guarantee that you enter the future with a portfolio rich in gold.

R.
Gandalf the White
(03/11/2003; 14:59:43 MDT - Msg ID: 99357)
NOW I have a PROBLEM ! I have to change the NAME of the Post ! <;-)
UP-DATE on the "QUEEN of the Hill" status report ! (NOT a Link !)Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
UP-DATE on POG CONTEST "KING of the HILL" status ! <;-)
<<<< SNIP >>>>

**** $350.5 **** Waverider (03/11/03; 08:08:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 99289)

---
Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
2/28/03 GC3J HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 OI = 105,993
3/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 OI = 104,153
3/04/03 GC3J HIGH = $354.9 low = $349.5 Settlement = $353.3 Change +$4.0 OI = 105,279
3/05/03 GC3J HIGH = $358.8 low = $352.3 Settlement = $353.2 Change -$0.1 OI = 106,349
3/06/03 GC3J HIGH = $357.4 low = $352.6 Settlement = $356.9 Change +$3.7 OI = 106,444
3/07/03 GC3J HIGH = $358.7 low = $347.0 Settlement = $350.9 Change -$6.0 OI = 105,019
3/10/03 GC3J HIGH = $355.5 low = $353.2 Settlement = $354.8 Change +$3.9 OI = 103,334
3/11/03 GC3J HIGH = $355.5 low = $348.7 Settlement = $350.6 Change -$4.2 OI = ?


===
Contest FIRST DAY, 2/28, Sir Kevin$ was "King of the Hill"
Contest SECOND DAY, 3/3, Sir Kevin$ was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!
Contest THIRD DAY, 3/4, Sir Zelts was "King of the Hill" !!!
Contest FOURTH DAY, 3/5, Sir Zelts was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!!!
Contest FIFTH DAY, 3/6, Sir Liberty Head was "King of the Hill" !!!!!
Contest SIXTH DAY, 3/7, Sir Zelts RETURNED AGAIN to be the "King of the Hill" !
Contest SEVENTH DAY, 3/10 Sir RILEY is now "King of the Hill" !
Contest EIGHTH DAY, 3/11, Lady Waverider was "QUEEN of the Hill" !!!! <;-)
===
<;-)

ElGordo
(03/11/2003; 15:17:22 MDT - Msg ID: 99358)
Ford in trouble with $44 Billion in debt
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APm5TNRSYRm9yZCBTDetroit, March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of Ford Motor Co., the world's second-biggest automaker, plunged to a 10 1/2-year low after a Goldman Sachs analyst said the company will be hurt worse than rivals by slumping U.S. auto sales.

Also dragging down the stock was a forecast by Volkswagen AG, Europe's largest automaker, that first-quarter profit will fall ``significantly'' as car buyers pare spending and the euro strengthens against he dollar.

Ford shares dropped 5.6 percent to $6.60, the lowest closing price since Oct. 12, 1992. The stock has declined 62 percent in the past year. Shares of Ford's bigger rival, General Motors Corp., fell to a 52-week low.

``Weak March sales would be negative for the group, but particularly for Ford and its suppliers,'' Goldman Sachs analyst Gary Lapidus wrote in a report. He expects Ford to cut second- quarter production 10 percent to 12 percent, though he said the company probably needs to reduce it by 19 percent. Ford sales analyst George Pipas said the company will cut production, declining to say how much.

Ford's difficulties may make it harder for Chief Executive Officer William Clay Ford Jr. to pay back or refinance $44 billion of debt maturing in the next two years and plug a $15.6 billion pension shortfall.
___________
More unemployment coming from auto sector.
Black Blade
(03/11/2003; 15:18:41 MDT - Msg ID: 99359)
From The Mailbag

This is from my email courtesy of DailyReckoning:

Gold, looking very much like the eagle scout of this metaphor, advanced $3.90 to $354.80 an ounce. Surprisingly, and much to the bewilderment of gold bulls, the shares of most precious metals companies tumbled right along with the general market yesterday. The XAU Index dropped 3.7%, despite the rallying gold price.

- It's tough enough to make a dollar in this market, without losing money when you're "right". But, sadly, that's been the situation in the gold shares market for the last several weeks. Gold has been holding solidly above $350 an ounce, while most gold stocks have been sinking. The XAU Index, for example, has dropped more than 15% so far this year, even while gold has gained about 2%.

Plausible explanation is that, for brief periods of time, gold stocks will behave as mere stocks, rather than surrogates for gold itself. That's because, when an investor looks to raise money he will often sell his winners first. (The losers will come back, right?) Gold stocks, being among the very few winners in most investors' portfolios, are logical candidates for money-raising...and so they are sold.

Also, this from David Tice of Prudent Bear Fund:

"This is a secular bear market," David Tice explains in a recent interview with Newsday. "It has a long way to run. As much as we would like there to be prosperity in the U.S., we see that the excesses and imbalances from this excess boom have got to be wrung out of the system."

"We partied hard," says Tice, "but now we will experience the hangover." Tice advises investors to sell stocks and buy gold. "That's how we're playing it," he says.


Black Blade: That's partly what I see as the disconnect between gold stocks and gold. I still see accumulation of physical precious metals as the best play for now. The stock market and economy are in a "meltdown" phase and it has a long way to run yet. Individuals have fled the stock market and now only institutionals and a few scared players are left hanging around staring at the nearly empty punch bowl. Over the next several months it will get rather "interesting".
silvercollector
(03/11/2003; 16:41:28 MDT - Msg ID: 99360)
It gets more sickening by the day.
I haven't checked the gold/XAU or the gold/HUI ratio lately but it must be getting rather brutal.

I've been watching gold since the 1996 SM and dollar blitz and if this is it.......well I've missed the boat, missed the train, missed it all.

The dollar index at 97/98, is this the bottom? We've seen money explode, we've seen scandals and lies, we've witnessing the evaporation of confidence, we have interest rates at 40 year lows, the Nikkei will soon be at one-million year lows, war is a week away, Hussein is making a mockery of the UN, the US. Dozens and dozens of people are murdered each day in the M.E. and gold wobbles at 350.

I am almost at the point of throwing things around the room. I listen, I read, the fundamentals are right in front of my eyes, yet traders who supposedly are in the know are flogging the shares, a 'leading' indicator for spot gold.

They are saying gold is going down. There are STATING the US is going to invade Iraq, take over, are going to re-establish oil flow and in the process re-establish confidence in the US economy and consequently the US dollar.

There really is no other interpretation of their doings, is there?

So without cutting hairs and beating around the bush one must logicially ask, are they correct?

misetich
(03/11/2003; 16:41:48 MDT - Msg ID: 99361)
Airlines: Iraq War Could Cost 70,000 Jobs
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=580&e=4&cid=580&u=/nm/20030311/bs_nm/airlines_iraq_dcSnip:

WASHINGTON/CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. airlines could slash 70,000 more jobs and annual losses would reach $10.7 billion if there is a war against Iraq (news - web sites), the biggest domestic carriers said on Tuesday.
********
Misetich

One can only imagine the impact on the tourism industry and business travel!

All On Boar The Gold Bull Express
misetich
(03/11/2003; 16:57:48 MDT - Msg ID: 99362)
Junk bonds exposure will hurt US insurers-Moody's
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=C0VA52WR4M3RWCRBAEZSFFA?type=bondsNews&storyID=2364003Snip:

NEW YORK, March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. life insurers will "inevitably" suffer increased financial pressure from their growing exposure to junk-rated bonds, credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service said in a new report."The primary credit effect of significant ... holdings is the higher-than-expected credit losses associated with these instruments, which will reduce companies' future earnings and capital formation," said Andrew Henckler