http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030228/minerals_mexico_silver_2.htmlMEXICO CITY, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Silver output in Mexico, the
world's largest producer, fell to 233,612 kilograms in December,
down 12.2 percent versus the same month a year earlier, the
National Statistics Institute (INEGI) said.
For full-year 2002, Mexico produced 2,852,138 kilograms of
silver.
A breakdown of metals production follows:
Product Dec 2002 Pct Chge
vs yr ago
Gold 1,620 kgs -43.7
Silver 233,612 kgs -12.2
Lead 10,577 tonnes -23.4
Copper 25,583 tonnes -11.9
Zinc 32,265 tonnes -11.9
Note: Precious metals in kilograms and base metals in
tonnes.

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlContest update!
Join the fun and you could win the Gold and/or Silver !!

Just go to the above LINK and follow "The Yellow Brick Road"!!

There alrady have been fifteen brave "EARLY BIRDS" that Prognosticated the POG Settlement of 3/13/03, AND that have also submitted the same number of diverse concept entries in the ESSAY "confession" contest.

2/28/03 Apr 03 COMEX Contract
HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1
Yesterday�s Open Interest 107869

At this time 2/28/03, (until at least Monday), Sir Kevin$ is the "King of the Hill" !!!

COME ON IN all you Lurkers, and walk away with a CLINK in your pocket !
<;-)

http://www.forbes.com/markets/commodities/newswire/2003/02/28/rtr894099.htmlSnip:

"
TORONTO, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. (nyse: ABX - news - people), target of an anti-trust lawsuit alleging that it manipulated gold prices, said on Friday it filed a motion to dismiss the case.

"It's completely without merit and that's why we have moved today in response to it and have filed motions to dismiss the whole case," Barrick spokesman Vince Borg told Reuters.

..."

Sundeck: Well they would wouldn't they...let's wait for the next chapter to see what happens.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/28/opinion/28KRUG.htmlSnip:

The conventional wisdom among business forecasters now calls for growth of a bit more than 3 percent over the next year. Growth at that pace is barely enough to keep up with rising productivity and an expanding labor force, not enough to make a serious dent in unemployment. And a growing number of forecasters think the conventional wisdom is overoptimistic, that the pain is about to get even worse.

One reason is the surge in oil prices, which acts like a big tax increase, siphoning off spending that might otherwise have helped create jobs.
..........
Then there's the effect of the worst fiscal crisis in the 50 states since World War II. Iris Lav of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities suggests that tax increases and spending cuts at the state level could drain $100 billion from the national economy over the next year.
.........
Finally, the increasingly grim mood of consumers can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If disheartened families cut their spending, the job picture will worsen even further.
.........
Why is the administration so uninterested in helping the economy? Here's my theory: The depressed state of the economy provides a convenient if bogus rationale for the huge, extremely irresponsible long-run tax cuts that, after Iraq, constitute this administration's principal obsession.
**********
Misetich

Lets keep on eye on the real key - consumer spending - tic..toc...tic..toc..

Got gold?

Dr. Hans Sennholz
Grove City, PA - In their election oratory politicians usually stress their love of fiscal discipline and balanced budgets. But as soon as they are elected they tend to discover a great number of exceptions that require more funding.
President Bush clearly made the election pledge to avoid budget deficits, but, ever since September 11, 2001, his budget proposals built on exceptions project a deficit of more than $300 billion for each of the next few years. Yet, he also argues for prompt tax reduction, which signals a brand-new course of action in the annals of fiscal policy.

The prospect of soaring deficits and simultaneous tax reductions alarms a few economists. On this new fiscal road they foresee deficits of $500 billion or even $600 billion annually, which in time may cast doubt on the credibility of the federal government as debtor. Every few months the Congressional debt ceiling needs to be lifted by a few hundred billion dollars. Congress last raised it by $450 billion to $6.4 trillion on June 30, 2002; it needs to be lifted right now as the official Treasury debt again has reached the ceiling. At the present rate of spending it will need to be lifted in June or July of this year and, in case of war with Iraq, even earlier. The federal deficits are compounded by the budget shortfalls of most state governments, estimated at some $105 billion in 1992-1993. State governments are required legally to balance their budgets, which forces them either to raise taxes or cut expenditures. Undoubtedly, most prefer to boost their fees and exactions; the proposed federal tax reduction, if and when it finally passes the U.S. Congress, may even compound their problems as many state systems are based on the federal tax structure.

Both deficits, the federal and the state, constitute a heavy burden on the capital market which keeps no idle savings amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars. They force the Federal Reserve System to come to the rescue; it can print any amount of money and create any volume of credit. The Fed is the financier of last resort, the ultimate source of funds that enables the federal government to finance any conceivable expenditure and cover any possible deficit. Without the Fed, fiscal deficits of such magnitude would soon depress the American economy and cause serious political repercussions.

Its ability to create dollars that enjoy world-wide acceptability enables it to distribute the burden of U.S. Government deficits to countless millions of dollar holders all over the globe. They pay for the deficits through depreciation of the dollars in their pockets. Japanese and Chinese, Arabs and Hindus, French and Germans, and all others with dollar savings join Americans in bearing the burden of federal deficits.

This ability to place the economic cost of government spending on millions of trusting victims rests on the extraordinary position of the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. The dollar acquired this distinction by international agreement reached at Bretton Woods in New Hampshire in 1944 which committed the United States to provide an anchor for world prices by pegging the dollar at $35 per ounce of gold and envisioned a world economy linked by fixed dollar exchange rates.

When the United States suffered chronic gold losses and finally faced inability to make payments in gold, President Nixon severed the dollar's gold link in August 1971, devalued the dollar against major foreign currencies in December 1971, and finally floated it in March 1973. The world has been on a floating dollar standard ever since. It is a fiat standard, unbacked and irredeemable, which can be inflated and depreciated at will. Managed by the Federal Reserve System, it is a useful standard in the financial service of the U.S. Government.

Other countries are narrowly limited in their ability to inflate and create credit; if they indulge in expansion rates greater than those of their neighbors and trade partners, they would soon face payment difficulties as imports increase and exports decline. They would have to reduce the expansion rates and fall in line with their neighbors and partners. The Federal Reserve System as the manager of the world dollar standard has no such narrow limits. It can inflate and create credit as long as its expansion does not exceed the world-wide demand for its currency. It may generate trade deficits year after year and aggravate its maladjustments as long as foreign banks and investors hoard the dollars or invest them in American obligations. It is bound to cause world-wide financial upheavals, however, when it depreciates the dollar at excessive rates and thereby inflicts painful losses on those foreign investors.

The floating system based on the U.S. dollar has been a precarious structure ever since its inception. During the 1970s the country suffered the worst inflation in decades. By the end of the decade the inflation rate stood at 13 percent, the Federal Reserve discount rate at 12 percent, and the prime lending rate at 15.75 percent, the highest of the century. The dollar had fallen notably in relation to the currencies of other trading countries and especially to gold.
The 1980s saw some economic recovery but also brought new difficulties and more maladjustments. They led to an explosion of personal, business, and government debt which cast a shadow on the future of the financial structure. Federal government debt soared from approximately $950 billion to nearly $3 trillion. A growing share of this debt was acquired by foreign banks and investors who used the widening imbalance of American imports over exports to invest their earnings in the United States.

The 1990s, finally, seemed to defy all rules of economic behavior. Easy money and credit spurred the most explosive stock market boom in U.S. history, creating enormous speculative wealth and spawning new companies. With financial markets booming, the federal government even reported a budget surplus, borrowing from Social Security trust accounts. The balance-of-payment deficit became a major concern as imports soared and exports stagnated, which further raised the mountain of debt.

Toward the end of the decade, in 1998, the floating dollar standard suffered a number of financial shocks that began in Asia and eventually struck fragile economies around the world. American equity markets continued to surge until 2000 when an economic slowdown became evident also in the United States. In 2001, finally, the American economy slipped into recession for the first time in ten years. The Federal Reserve immediately cut interest rates, a record eleven times in one year; the U.S. Congress passed a large multi-year tax cut, and the U.S. Treasury even sent out tax rebates to boost consumer spending. Yet, the markets continued to plunge following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001.

According to various market analyses, foreign investors now own some $7 trillion of U.S. assets, 13 percent of American corporate stock, 35 percent of U.S. Treasury obligations, 23 percent of corporate bonds, and 14 percent of ownership in American companies. They obviously do not take kindly to Federal Reserve policies that depreciate the dollar and depress its exchange rate. Last year alone, European investors in the S&P 500 lost 38 percent on their property compared to just 24 percent suffered by U.S. investors because of the fall of the dollar versus the euro. Suffering such losses, their interest in American investments is bound to decline. They may even liquidate and withdraw their holdings, which could lead to a crushing stampede to the exits.

We now face a situation that resembles the late 1970s when the world began to abandon the dollar and liquidate American investments. It took two years of Federal Reserve inactivity and 20 percent interest rates to restore foreign confidence and lure foreigner investors and creditors back. Today, the Fed is doing the opposite; it is making every effort to stimulate the economy by flooding the money market while the U.S. Treasury is accelerating its deficit spending. Both point towards monetary upheavals and deep global recession straight ahead, and both cast a shadow on the future of the floating dollar standard.

Reply to Dollar Bill.

Dr. Hans Sennholz says: "The 1990s, finally, seemed to defy all rules of economic behavior. Easy money and credit spurred the most explosive stock market boom in U.S. history, creating enormous speculative wealth and spawning new companies. With financial markets booming, the federal government even reported a budget surplus, borrowing from Social Security trust accounts. The balance-of-payment deficit became a major concern as imports soared and exports stagnated, which further raised the mountain of debt."

--Of all the statements that he makes, the first sentence of this quote is one which most clearly reveals the state of his knowledge. By saying that the 1990s seemed to defy the rules of economics, he discloses to us his failure to comprehend the way in which the rules of economics apply to the 1990s. As an example of how absurd his statement is, imagine a symphony conductor saying, "The cellos simply were not acting as cellos. What they were doing defied the rules of cello playing." Now, maybe you don't know all the rules of cello playing, but competent cello players do, and so does every competent symphony conductor. All of the playing characteristics of cellos have been known for a long time. Of course, if you pick up a cello and then toss it into a dumpster, and it makes funny sound as it gets knocked around in there, and if you call that cello playing, then you can say that all the rules of cello playing were not previously known. But if you're talking about what's useful in an orchestra, that's not music. The same applies to economics, or to anything. Remove economics from the field of its legitimate meaning, and then you can say anything. But if you want to discuss real economics, where money serves valid functions, then the known rules will apply. In saying that the 1990s seemed to him not to fit within the rules of economics, Dr. Sennholz is telling us that either not all the rules of economics are known, perhaps just by him (but perhaps also by others), or that what the 1990s consisted of was not economics. Neither implication is beneficial or correct.

About 5:00 pm March 2, 2003. Around midnight Iraq time, and too late to be mentioned in church or organize any protests for the weekend.

At some point human adults need to recognize that to base a currency on sheer confidence is to create specific types of vulnerability. They must also become aware that to 'invest' their money in company stocks, simply because someone says it is a good thing, is ignorant stupidity. Stocks are still too high. There can be no question of this. There are only two reasons to buy stocks. One, to get dividends. Or, two, to get capital gains. Dividends are paid from earnings, if there are any, and if the payments are legitimate, not bookkeeping tricks. Gains result from growth, which only happens under certain very specific conditions, about which there is no mystery. The period of general growth in company stocks is over. The beginning of such growth has -in recent history- depended on easy money, created by low interest rates, making borrowing less difficult. Interest rates are low again now, and still no company in its right mind dares to borrow. This is the case for numerous reasons. Private payments on private debt is curtailing personal expenditures, not just a little, but a lot. The public's confidence has been abused and is therefore lost. Hopefully, it will stay lost. It is only by knowledge, not by confidence, that investments should be made. Companies know these facts and realize that profit potentials are reduced because of them. The public has been severely burned, and some of it continues to be. No halfway wise adult male or female now has any trust whatever in the stock markets. Only gullible people with their eyes closed and their morales pumped up really think they ought to. And many are those who prey on them and stuff their pockets with their money. One wonders -if murder were legal- how many brokers would not be strangled or shot. The number of human individuals is growing, who see what is happening: the ruse, the guile, the predatory nature of our nation's present stock and money dealings, and the unsound nature of its own 'money managing'. The only thing that keeps it going is poor education in public schools, absence of any pertinent information by mongers of the news, and condemnable omissions of the truth by 'official' mouths. Gold has value. That does matter. Gold has never collapsed. Gold cannot be printed. Dealers in gold are not known for cheating people when selling it to them, or when buying it from them. The world's most practiced financial wizards -when they accumulate for value- accumulate gold, not merely marked on paper, but the real, precious stuff. Ladies wear it to display their own wealth. And so do men. Nobody would ever make a necklace out of dollars and then wear it like gold. Even nations rely on its character. We should do no less.

One thing is sure. It may occur after an extended wait. And in the meantime, the storm may gather. But it is a pretty safe bet that when the Big Boys' financial interests require that Joe Public suddenly feel stabbed by a hunger for noble gold, his greedy appetite will know no bounds. The coin that you are keeping then will be very hot to hold.

ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey's parliament on Saturday approved a long-awaited motion allowing deployment of thousands of U.S. troops here for a possible invasion of Iraq, a deputy told Reuters.

The resolution, which also clears the way for dispatching Turkish troops to Iraq in the case of war, was passed after hours of debate on an issue which has generated widespread opposition in Turkey.

Parliament's decision, which is crucial to U.S. military planners, paves the way for stationing 62,000 U.S. soldiers in Turkey to establish a "northern front" which experts say would shorten any war.

Fearing the economic and political impact of any conflict on its borders, Ankara had been reluctant to agree to any role in the war. A rejection of the U.S. request would however have deprived it of U.S. financial support and any say in the future of northern Iraq, where Turkey has key interests.

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20030301_1150.htmlSnip:

ANKARA, Turkey March 1 �
Turkey's parliament speaker nullified the legisature's vote Saturday to allow deployment of 62,000 U.S. combat troops to open a northern front against Iraq, saying a majority of those in the chamber had not voted in favor.

The vote was 264-250 with 19 abstentions.

Speaker Bulent Arinc said nullified the vote after it was challenged by the opposition.

The Turkish constitution demands a majority of those present must vote in favor for a bill to pass.

The vote Saturday was four short of a simple majority.

Arinc closed parliament after the vote until Tuesday.

The bill's rejection is likely to seriously increase tensions with the United States which had been expecting a positive vote.
...........
Some 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) away from parliament, some 50,000 Turks held a rally to protest the war.

"No to War," and "We don't want to be America's soldiers'," they shouted as some 4,000 police stood guard. Some carried banners that read: "The people will stop this war," and "Budget for education not war."



*********
Misetich

Back to the drawing board -

Got gold?

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/reuters20030301_141.htmlSnip:

� DUBAI (Reuters) - Key U.S. ally Saudi Arabia has warned a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq would plunge the Gulf region into chaos and do nothing but harm to all parties involved, including the United States.

Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, in remarks to CNN broadcast on Saturday, also questioned U.S. intentions to help introduce democracy in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East.

"We would hate to see American soldiers paying the price for an occupation that will do nothing but bring terrible consequences to everybody," Prince Saud said.

"An occupation of Iraq is not simple. How (are) 250,000 troops going to maintain order in a country like that? Especially if war leads to the instability we think it will lead to, if it leads to chaos we think it will lead to. If the social order breaks down, who is going to be fighting who? It is going to be a mess we think," he added.

............

Asked about the U.S. aim, Prince Saud said: "If you get chaos in Iraq, how will democracy flower in Iraq? If you achieve victory and there is somebody occupying Baghdad...just imagine what the reaction could be in the Arab and Muslim world to that fact alone."

Prince Saud also challenged Bush's assertion that the removal of Saddam from power could create an opportunity for peace in the Middle East, saying Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was an obstacle to peace and not the Iraqi leader.

"I think (that) removal of Mr. Sharon will be more apt to bring a solution to the question of the Palestinians than the removal of Saddam Hussein. He (Sharon) is the obstacle to peace," Prince Saud said.
********
Misetich

The risks of an ill-conceived invasion has serious consequences worldwide.

Why now? Why this forced timetable? Lets look in the Golden Crystal ball - and be ready to ride the Gold Bull Express!

Got gold?

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1046442000000&sn=1&banner=mainwireSnip:

If the economy is pulling out of its "soft
patch," it's without the strength of the industrial sector.
........
Companies say
customers are buying in small quantities and on short notice. Rising
prices of oil and natural gas are constraining business, balanced in
part by significant export gains from the weakening dollar.
.........
Integrated Device (semiconductors) on Thursday projected flat
revenues and, like a host of others in the sector this month, announced
job cuts. Rudolph Technologies (chipmaking tools) also announced job
cuts on Thursday amid uneven business conditions. Emerson, a diversified
manufacturer, said weak demand for industrial goods is offsetting strong
demand for consumer goods.
..........
Misetich
US economy is on the brink of a new recession

Got gold?

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1046445780000&sn=3&banner=mainwireSnip:

RUSSELS (MktNews) - Eurozone finance ministers will informally
discuss next week the policy response options in the event of severe
financial crisis or economic downturn in the course of the year,
according to sources.
During their normal discussion on the economy at their meeting here
next Thursday, ministers will discuss whether their "armoury" of policy
responses to a severe slowdown would be adequate.
"In case risks materialise, ministers will discuss a potential list
of measures that they would be ready to take," said an EU diplomat.
The risks on the horizon include a sustained spike in oil prices, a
prolonged conflict in the Gulf and the possibility of a continued
downturn in eurozone activity and confidence.
********
Misetich

If something out of the ordinary were to happen (and lets hope not) pursuant to an ill advised Iraqui invasion those "contingency plans" will be tested severely.

Got gold?

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/03/01/attack/main542445.shtml(CBS)�All travelers arriving in the United States will be screened by federal border inspectors for radiological materials beginning this weekend, according to Saturday's editions of The New York Times.

The newspaper quotes senior Bush administration officials as saying the plan is designed to stop terrorists from bringing nuclear material across the border. The Tinmes describes it as the most important in a series of counter-terrorism measures that are being put into place as the Customs Service, the Immigration and Naturalization Service and 18 other federal agencies formally merge into the new Department of Homeland Security on Saturday.
_______________
Sorry about the Turkey post, I should have waited a few minutes!

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/eastasia/view/33697/1/.htmlHong Kong's golden toilets attract thousands of Chinese tourists�

Crowds of Chinese tourists desperate to catch a glimpse of the world's most expensive toilets are flocking to a Hong Kong jewellery shop in Kowloon.

On display in the shop is a pair of gleaming gold toilets in a gold tiled bathroom encrusted with precious gems.Advertisement
The entire bathroom costs US$7.6 million.

It attracts around 4,000 visitors every day, and most of them are from the mainland.

The bathroom is the brainchild of China-born jeweller Lam Sai-wing.

Many visitors are overawed by the show of opulence.

"We've never seen anything like this before. When you see it for the first time, it's like the most beautiful thing, the most, most beautiful thing. There is so much gold, we could never have imagined anything like this, never ever imagined," said Mr Wang, a Chinese tourist.

For some visitors, like Gao Qingyin from eastern Hangzhou, just looking at the toilets is not enough.

"What I mean is, wouldn't it be better if the toilet was open and each person could shut the door and use it, could sit down and really feel what it's like," Gao Qingyin said.

The working toilets do boast a state-of-the-art automatic flushing system but they are off-limits to tourists.

Visitors also have to don plastic covers over their shoes to avoid scuffing the 900-gram gold bars embedded in the floor.

Some impressed tourists have requested their own golden bathroom accessories after visiting the showroom.

"Well, they may not want to build exactly the same toilet or washroom in their house, but sometimes they will ask, 'I just want to order the golden frame or the water tank', like that way," Kathi Ng, President of the Hang Feng Gold Technology Group said.

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 27, 2003--The Board of Trade Clearing Corporation (the "Clearing Corporation") announced it has approved a temporary waiver of clearing fees for the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) mini-sized metals contracts.

The waiver of mini-sized Gold and mini-sized Silver futures are effective on March 1, 2003 and will expire on May 31, 2003, unless an extension is announced. The waiver covers all participants for open outcry and electronic trades.

"The Clearing Corporation supports the CBOT's endeavor to encourage additional volume growth in the mini-sized gold and silver futures contracts," said Michael C. Dawley, Chairman of the Board of the Clearing Corporation.

Additionally, the CBOT has announced an increase in trading volume in its mini-sized metals contracts, with open interest in mini-sized Gold futures reaching almost 2,000 contracts.

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030228-fri.htmlStephen Li Jen :

"One of the problems with the USD correction we've seen since the beginning of 2002 is that it has materialised primarily through the European axes and not the Asian axes."

...

"This is problematic because the goods market imbalances of the US are against Asia, not against Europe. USD weakness against the EUR and the GBP does very little to correct the current account (C/A) problem in the US. Indeed, the US C/A deficit continues to march toward the 5.5% of GDP mark, despite a weaker USD. For the US C/A imbalances to normalise, USD/Asia must correct!"

...

Eric Chaney :

"As the decline of the US dollar carries on � the US currency is only half-way on its way down, according to my colleague Stephen Jen � the situation will get even worse if the euro is the only counterpart to bear the burden of the rebalancing of the US economy. Well, it seems that this is the case, since most Asian currencies are practically linked to the USD. Using the weights used by the Fed for its own currency basket, it appears that a 10% effective depreciation of the USD would require a 50% rise of the EUR/USD rate. If only half of this is behind us, there is more pain coming for Europe. In addition, it seems that the well-established correlation between oil prices and the USD exchange rate is now inverted and that, practically, the euro has now taken the status of "petro-currency." Just imagine what would happen if crude oil prices stayed around $40 for some time."

This quote is attributed to Julius Caesar (although not appearing in any of his writings: "Beware the leader who bangs the drums of war in order to whip up the citizenry into a patriotic fervor, for patriotism is indeed a double-edged sword. It both emboldens the blood, just as it narrows the mind. And when the drums of war have reached a fever pitch and the blood boils with hate and the mind has closed, the leader will have no need in seizing the rights of the citizenry. Rather, the citizenry, infused with fear and blinded by patriotism, will offer up all of their rights unto the leader and gladly so. How do I know? For this is what I have done. And I am Caesar."

Here's your career plan:
We need some insiders at the Forum. Please consider a Masters degree and phD in Economics. Get a job with the Federal Reserve and become a Governor. And keep us poor devils here at the Forum advised what's going on.

Seriously, your interest in the discussions that take place here suggest you may be inclined to a field such as economics or finance. After 40 years of an engineering career I'm not too interested in technical matters except for their economic potential.

Ooops, his post has been pulled out. Nevertheless he should do some thinking before offending other people.

ElGordo, thanks for the heads-up (98665) on that metals report from Reuters. There was some similar news a while back, also about decreased Mexican production but further investigation revealed that Mexican ore was being shipped to Texas for processing. This meant silver derived from ore was decreased in Mexico because the ore was processed in the USofA. I remember talk also of striking workers which may have slowed production or, perhaps, caused the shipping of ore to Texas? So many conclusions have to be made with dubious information.

Whether this is a similar case or not remains to be seen. I have thought silver production is more closely tied to the prices of copper and zinc. A slowing economy should slow the demand for most base metals. It is ore processing for base metals that accounts for most of silver's production. The year 2002 may be recorded as one of decreasing demand for silver. I wonder how much in comparison to this coming demand number, has mining supply slowed? The final number will tell us if more existing supply was needed to balance supply/demand for 2002 or not. My guess is about an 80 million ounce downdraw for 2002 but it's only a guess. The possibility of silver use for pressure treating wood products brings to mind an additional use of silver that may be beyond the market's ability to supply.
Thanks for posting the article.
Rich

On one hand, I think it is likely that a large fraction of what you may be perceiving as "anti-American and anti-Bush attitudes" among participants is primarily a misdiagnosis of, especially, what might more properly be deemed overzealous expressions of anti-dollarization -- a sentiment often shared by posters both here and abroad. I say "overzealous" because the typical anti-dollar posts which are well-stated don't readily lend themselves to misinterpretation as an equivalent to anti-America.

That said, it is a sad truth that there are a small fraction of posts that appear here which seem unmistakably anti-U.S. and are seemingly put forth with no other objective than to vent a passionate negative opinion. In the same way, we receive posts that praise and glorify the U.S. and are seemingly put forth with no other objective than to vent a passionate positive opinion.

As OPINIONS, they each belong to an individual and are thus of equal merit -- whatever merit "opinion" has I shall leave to each reader to decide for himself.

FACTS, on the other hand, tend to speak for themselves. Unfortunately, opinions and facts often blur because rarely is the truth fully known; and where it IS fully known it isn't necessarily fully understood in the context of its surrounding. Interpretation is always involved, and thus, different individuals armed with various amounts of facts and differing interpretive skills will arrive and different opinions that reflect their very own important view of the world.

On a person by person basis, any given opinion matters only insofar as is shapes the decisions and actions taken by the individual who owns that opinion. However, in a democratically or market driven world of majority rule, these opinions as the motivation for actions start to take on great importance as they collectively influence large-scale operations, legislation, affiliations and movements of men and nations.

This is all very fascinating. It really is. Wouldn't it be nice if some good-intentioned soul with the necessary resources and resolve would set up a discussion forum specifically for the discussion of socio-geo-political opinion and its bearing on the future directions of man's large-scale interaction with man? That would be great! However, the focus of this forum, hosted by a well-intentioned gold brokerage, is a much more limited scope -- specifically, the ROLE OF GOLD in men's lives set against all these greater events and movements.

Where our posters go astray, to the detriment of this forum's purpose and long-term viability, is where they neglect the gold aspect (which binds us all as brothers and sisters) and instead fixate on their own singular geopolitical opinions, individually using their supply of stones for either throwing at others or raising an altar. In this way, all meaningful discussion ends as half-build altars become make-shift shelters as the remaining stones are employed to return fire. Again, this would be great stuff -- at another forum devoted to that purpose.

We do our best to keep the focus on gold through example, through reminders, and, when necessary, through "ex post" facto redaction, to put anasty business kindly.

Bottom line: if gold owners can't themselves set a good example of measured interaction among all the world, then I don't know which other body of people could fill the role. The challenge is offered, and I think we can rise to the occasion. If we don't, who will?

"There is always hope"

Thanks again to everyone who contributes in one way or another to maintaining the integrity of this gold forum, even if in no other way than by simply refraining from posting off topic or venting singular political opinions. While fascinating, as I've said before, this is not the place for that. Seek out your friends and family to get something off your chest because doing it here chips away at the foundation of this special gold edifice.

And of course, speaking of support, when you want to add more gold to your portfolio of wealth, please choose USAGOLD-Centennial as your brokerage.

Randy

In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals' founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:

"[M]uch of this issue is devoted to oil, inflation, international politics and gold. . . . . Though the dollar continued to rise against most international currencies during the past month, most currencies ( including the dollar) were depreciating against real goods. . . . AND IT IS THE TREND THAT HAS ECONOMISTS CONCERNED. Crude oil, which must be purchased with dollars, is being blamed as the chief culprit. When the dollar price of oil rises, it fans the inflationary fires of nearly every nation in the world. All of this could at some point inspire a dollar rebellion among the nations of the world, with both oil producers and oil consumers capable of finding fault with the dollar simultaneously . . . . In such a case gold, of course, would become one of the primary beneficiaries and the dollar could go into a tailspin."

Take note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

News & Views is available to our clientele only. However, the latest issue is back from the printer and available to prospective gold investors who request an INFORMATION PACKET on one-time only basis. We invite your request.

If you would like to get a feel for the thinking that forms the basis for market conclusions like the one featured above, take advantage of the offer to include THE ABCs of GOLD INVESTING: PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH THROUGH PRIVATE GOLD OWNERSHIP. A prompt with ordering information will come up after you submit your request for the INFORMATION PACKET.

Excellent reminder. Many of us get caught up in the passions of the day. We must stay focused for the sake of our common but extremely important issue.
Boilermaker

Was reading financial times,there was an article about the strong infighting going on in the bank of japan on whether to let the yen strengthen or weaken against the dollar,I am still trying to understand the implications. Boliermaker I thought about economics I am weak in math algebra was difficult for me I do not think I could get by calculus,I have taken I Q tests and score well until it comes to spatial ability the test givers always comment on this fact to me.

http://www.canada.com/vancouver/story.asp?id=1F5076F3-4B2F-4724-8EC2-738CCC799C57NEW YORK (AP) - No sooner did hints of rising inflation emerge than the muttering began on Wall Street about the possible return of dreaded stagflation.

It was last seen three decades ago, when rising inflation, failing growth and surging unemployment crippled the North American economy. No one would welcome its return.

In periods of stagflation, economic growth is feeble but inflation roars ahead - as it normally would during times of rapid expansion.

It's a term that was coined in the 1970s after the OPEC oil embargo caused a dramatic surge in the cost of crude oil and gasoline and sent inflation soaring.

"High inflation pushed up interest rates and eroded buying power, and as a result consumer and business spending remained soft, preventing the economy from growing," said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis.

-------(see full text at url)-------

Last time, the price of gold was pushed up to $850 per ounce. This time around, there are far, far more dollars whirling around to settle into proportionately less gold per weakening buck. Act to protect your purchasing power with a prudent diversification into gold.

R.

I believe the news that Iraq destroyed its long range missls came out after gold markets were closed.If the gold market would have been open would there have been a large downward move is it coming monday.Does the destruction of these missles weaken President Bush and his aggressive stance against Hussien.

Rookie, though your post has been pulled, I have been thinking about your observations, and pondering why the posters at this site AS A WHOLE should appear as they have to you. Here is what I think.

People here are interested in gold: on the one hand as a means to protect or increase their wealth, and on the other hand in the influence of gold upon politics, the economy, the monetary system, and society. Some of course have more of the former subjective interest, and some more of the latter objective interest, and the two cannot easily be separated.

Many have the FUNDAMENTAL belief that gold is a primary obstacle to debasement of currency, and thereby an obstacle to the currency issuer (i.e the Government through its Central Bank).

Government obtains its funds mostly through three methods: taxation, borrowing, and debasement of its currency. Since taxation is limited, especially within a democracy where the taxed elect the taxers, large-scale borrowing usually implies deferred debasement (increase of the money supply to repay the loans at their maturity). It is widely recognized that the US has facilitated debasement of the dollar by gradually lessening the formal connection of gold to the dollar: first refusing its citizens free exchange in the early thirties, then putting pressure on foreigners not to exercise free exchange in the sixties, and finally closing the "gold window" altogether in August of 1971. There is formally no gold connection with the dollar now, but there is still a practical connection, an important one: while there is not free exchange of the dollar for a fixed amount of gold (which would curb debasement), there is free exchange of the dollar for gold at the market rate. If people think that the market rate will rise in the future, they will buy gold NOW, which will increase that market rate (the price of gold), and this will make manifest to many that the dollar is being debased. And the advantage of debasement over taxation is precisely that debasement is not so obvious to the voters as is taxation.

And so the Government must do what it can to quell the prospect that the price of gold will rise. It would be na�ve to think that the Government would not use whatever means it had at its disposal to curb a rise in the price of gold, just so long as it appears to the Government that the mass of people do not understand that the currency is being debased.

As fascinating as this all is to those whose interest in gold is objective, it is depressing to those whose interest is mainly subjective: to wit, to those who have invested in gold. For it adversely affects the investments of these people, among whom is the great majority of the posters at this site.

Presumably, efforts of Government to curb gold will become more intense as its need for funds becomes more intense. When the economy weakens and tax revenues drop, the need for funds increases. When war is imminent, the need for funds increases. The person who serves as focus for reaction to the acts of Government is its Chief Executive: presently, George W. Bush.

Perhaps some of all this is reflected in the posts of this site, and perhaps it is on this that Rookie is picking up.

Seems as though based on the latest intel coming out re: Al Queda trancript of Feb 24 that we've switched from Orange alert prematurely....this according to Mark Robinson article (Says that March 14 is pretty large day in Muslim History / also interestingly enough ---close to the Roman Ides of March ) from a forum across the hall....Jim Pupulva et al

and there also ....encouraging words on gold from Marc Faber, who challenges recent claims by Robert Prechter ....
says that hedge funds bought the gold on the way up and as they like to trade sold it down.....THEY'LL BE BACK>>>>>>>

I understand what "supply and demand" is and how "it" works in a force-free environment. I say "it" because, supply and demand, is but two sides of the same coin.
You can't affect supply without affecting demand. Our environment, however, is not force-free.

Keep�em Guessing
It's the force/minipulation part that is so difficult to fully comprehend and keeps us guessing. Force can be applied covertly or overtly. It can be directed at the supply side or the demand side. As we see, these numerous forces can be very large, acute or chronic, emotional or rational, and conflicting in nature. The value of discernment and trust in oneself becomes paramount in the guessing game. Actions can speak where words fail, so one must pay attention.

While we definitely have some work to do, ultimately, regarding gold, we have but three choices, go long, go short, or go home. Long and short, buying and selling, like supply and demand, are again two sides of the same coin. Along with our choice of sides, comes a corresponding opposition.
Like a game of poker, keep the opposition guessing as they do to you. That's why I like gold bullion coins. No one knows whether you are going long or short. No one knows how much you have or where you keep it, what you are doing with it or how well it is protected. Unlike the dollar, gold flies below radar. Our big and powerful opposition sets the radar detection limits, so like jujitsu; use it to your advantage.
Besides, each bullion coin has two sides and you own both.

Note
The opposition, as I see it, is big government control and all those advocating force/resistance paradigms over responsible behavior. I do not equate being anti-big government with being anti-American or pro-anarchy. Quite the opposite.
No debates on this, please.


Cheers

Could someone in the forum,I am thinking this is right up physicalmans alley.I want to start buying sterling silver at estate and garage sales I have heard there are great buys out there.How much does one look to pay?Is it sold by the gram?How can one protect oneself against fraud?Any info would be helpfull.thnx all 21

I have been "saleing" and doing estate sales for years. No, sterling isn't sold by weight at sales. About the only thing you have to look for is to make sure it is stamped "sterling". There are books on antique silver you can buy at some flea markets and some book stores. Your best bets are in modest neighborhoods. The more modest the less pricey it will be. Go to several antique stores and price different items and then hit the sales. Your better buys are often at sales that are off the beaten path. Professional estate sales are hard because pros are there early and are sharks. If you see a hand made sign that is not in the paper try them first. You will see the same people at sales and you will learn what they are there to buy. I have had people that knew what I was after point out things I might be interested in that I had overlooked.
Good luck. And buy the way it is habit forming!!!

I just saw in another chat room where someone attends auctions, estate sales and flea markets and buys silver. He mentioned the "melt value" of silver. I don't know what it is right now ,it's been 23-24 years since I worked in the bussiness and it was a lot higher than it is now, but any jeweler should be able to tell you. When I worked in Denver at a jewelery store we bought a couple of sterling knives at about $100 for each piece. Good luck.

The last time I saw one of those was in cuzco, the year slips my mind, must've been around the time of the norman conquest, give or take 52 years. I think I must've remarked to the royal chamberlain "really I think you're taking this 'excrement of the gods' a bit too literally." He said something like "You elves think you know everything, next you'll tell me that earth is at the center of the universe." I hear there was talk of installing something similar in the USSR. At least some of the inca got to actually see their gold. That's more than can be said of the present citizens of the USA.

Only 7.6 megabucks for my own golden throne? Hope the "seat" is water heated. May be a bit of an effort to lift the lid. I'd better stop.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1449New York Times examines Barrick's lagging share
price and the Blanchard lawsuit against Barrick
and Morgan Chase, and finds out that Barrick may
NEVER have to repay ANY borrowed gold.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

An interesting book: Catastrophe Theory and its applications, by Tim Poston and Ian Stewart. It's probably more than you'd want to read, but the first two chapters and some of the examples in the back are good, and there really isn't that much "math" involved.

What is discussed is some of the stability problems. Most simple discussions of supply and demand presume (for arguments sake) that supply and demand follow simple monotonic curves (preferrably straight lines). Reality is that supply and demand are more like a bucking bronco: a lot of up and down but occasionally he trips and keels over. Interestingly they discuss ship building. With this as background you can attempt to put the FOA predictions to various gedanken experimenten: what underlies the current demand picture? What lies beyond the present region of stability? Present prices have been (for several decades) a mirage: a finely leveled balance beam upheld by big burly arms of big players (mostly governments). They wont let you touch that balance beam. The best you can do is to grab a few grains of that yellow stuff as they load and unload the tray (with virtual gold). And while they may be able to hold that golden balance beam steady for the present, the big guys have to do this while they balance on their tip toes on a highwire (and lately it seems it's been an oily high wire at that) Meanwhile some guy named Chavez the Magnificent is trying to scratch himself betweent the shoulderblades and some guy named Ken Lay has sold twice as many tickets to the circus, as there are seats, doubled up on fire insurance and taken out a 2nd mortgage on the circus company.

Really is this a show you want to attend? Scalp your ticket, take your winnings home and stuff them in a sock.

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlContest update!
NO change from the data from YESTERDAY ! <;-)

Join the fun and you could win the Gold and/or Silver !!

Just go to the above LINK and follow "The Yellow Brick Road"!!

There alrady have been fifteen brave "EARLY BIRDS" that Prognosticated the POG Settlement of 3/13/03, AND that have also submitted the same number of diverse concept entries in the ESSAY "confession" contest.

2/28/03 Apr 03 COMEX Contract
HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1
Yesterday�s Open Interest 107869

At this time 2/28/03, (until at least Monday), Sir Kevin$ is the "King of the Hill" !!!

COME ON IN all you Lurkers, and walk away with a CLINK in your pocket !
<;-)

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2003/3/2/latest/10527NorthKore&sec=latestSEOUL, South Korea (AP): North Korea on Sunday warned of "nuclear disasters'' worldwide if it is attacked by the United States, while its civilian officials urged greater cooperation between North and South Korea to stave off conflict on the volatile Korean Peninsula.

The North's official Rodong Sinmun newspaper accused the CIA of preparing a surprise attack on the communist nation's nuclear facilities, which are suspected of being used to make atomic bombs.

"If the U.S. imperialists ignite a war on the Korean Peninsula, the war will turn into a nuclear war,'' said the newspaper report, carried by the North's state-run KCNA news agency. "As a consequence, the Koreans in the north and south and the people in Asia and the rest of the world will suffer horrifying nuclear disasters.''

On Saturday, North Korea said nuclear war could break out on the peninsula at "any moment,'' after new South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun warned of a "calamity'' unless the standoff is resolved peacefully and quickly.

The North, believed by U.S. officials to already have one or two nuclear bombs, accuses the United States of inciting the standoff over its nuclear programs as a pretext for an invasion. Washington repeatedly said it has no plans to attack North Korea, but stresses that "all options are on the table.''

All the proponents of the pro-war and anti-war debate should keep one fact in mind.

The Western Allies in World War 2 got out the big stick, and whacked Japan over the head with it.

Japan has behaved itself impeccably for the last 58 years.

Makes you think, doesn't it?

Got lotsa gold?

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Without waxing philosophical, a few words are helpful concerning the mind-set with which you pursue your interest in gold ownership. Some enter the gold market to make a profit, others to hedge disaster, some to accomplish both. No matter into which category you fit, make sure you understand why you are going into the gold market. Convey that understanding to the individual with whom you are structuring your gold portfolio. The whys have quite a bit to do with what you end up owning.

"Frequently investors will say that any kind of gold will do because after all gold is gold, isn't it? This type of attitude has helped a great many coin shop owners unload unwanted inventory they hadn't been able to get rid of for years. This is probably a good deal for the coin dealer, but it could spell disaster for you. In the same vein, I have talked to hundreds, probably thousands, of investors in nearly a quarter century in the business. Quite often, potential investors have no more reason for buying gold than 'everybody else is doing it.'

"In Chapter 16 on portfolio planning, you will find some details on this important subject. For now, consider the inscription over the entrance to the temple of the ancient Delphic Oracle: 'Know Thyself.' Study. Read. Learn what's going on around you. Call a few gold firms and ask questions. There's nothing like conversation to stimulate thinking. Take time to lay a little groundwork. Then make your move. The political and economic situation being what it is, there is no better time to start than now. Know thyself -- your goals and needs -- and you will be a more confident, happier gold investor." (more)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. In your book, The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership you start the chapter by saying "Who you do business with is one of the most important aspects of gold investing." Why is that?

MK. Most, if not all, of the progress an investor makes towards realizing his or her goals with respect to gold ownership hinges on that relationship. Unbiased, objective advice from one's gold advisor is a key element. So are market information and education. Pricing, product selection, fulfillment and on-going support also rely on that relationship. Above all, it is extremely important for gold buyers to match their objectives with the type of gold they buy. Positive results in all of those areas depend upon a strong relationship with a gold firm. That is why it is important to spend some time finding the right one.

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

MK. The biggest trap investors fall into is buying a gold investment that bears little or no relationship to his or her objectives. Take safe haven investors for example. That group makes up 90% of our clientele, and probably a good 75% of the current physical gold market. Most often the safe-haven investors simply want to add gold coins to their portfolio mix, but by the time they finish talking with a typical national firm, they might end up in a leveraged gold position, exotic rare coins, or being diverted into silver or platinum. Others drift into gold stocks or gold futures which in reality are proxies for real gold ownership and could actually act opposite the intent of the investor. There's nothing wrong with any of these non-physical investments per se, it's just that none of them is really a safe-haven. The investor should bear this in mind. The question investors must always answer for themselves is "How will this investment serve me should the economy or financial markets suffer a major disruption?"

Every now and then someone notices there are some among us who have a difficult time understanding the big gold picture. They take the time to explain and do so in a way that clears away the fog. It's that confusing fog which is discussed here at such depth that some(myself included) get lost in it.

It always helps when a hundred years of history are condensed into a few easy to follow paragraphs. It is as if you said "wait Rookie, start at the trail head and the path will appear clear."

Zhiseng your message was clear, simple and helpful I'm sure to more than a few. Thanks

From the first Page:

"... In 1980 the sum total of debts (hosehold, businesses and corporations AND all of the US Federal Government's - federal, states and local) in the USA stood at 4 Trillion US Dollars.
At the end of the 3rd. Qu. 2002 it has soared to a sum total of 31 Trillion Dollars at a whopping 295% og the US GDP.
The previous high of this ratio of 264% was reached in 1929 - and we know what followed then. ...

And from the last Page (12):

... The central issue is the solvency of US, and the present "policy" of the Bush administration makes it certain that this solvency is going to be strained to and beyond breaking point. ...
... Russia has made it clear that the US will NOT get a UN sanction for a war against Iraq. Militarily, the US is indeed strong enough to go it alone. Financially,it is NOT. The rest of the world knows this, and it also knows that the only way to stop the US military push is to take away the money. If the US shreds all further remnants of its "international legitimacy" by a unilateral war, it will also shred all furter remnants of the "international legitimacy" of its debt obligations and its currency. That is the REAL threat now overhanging world markets everywhere."

Scary, though realistic thoughts by Bill Buckler, and he has built up a quite reputation as a true gold advocate.
In the meantime the US Dollar is hovering around the 100 level vis a vis a basket of currencies. Seemingly the (relative) strenght of the Euro has carried the brunt of this move. For how long can the strain on the international currency and monetary system survive, as the US seems willing to go on pushing on a string?
The POG itself seems clearly managed again since John Snow has taken over, to hover within "manageable" price bands.
Again, it only seems a question of time before Gold breaks out of the range the PTB have determined as intervention points.
War or not may eventually be only another diffusion, or better side show to cover up the real mess and disarray of the Fiat Currency System for a while longer.

When the music stops - gold will once again prove to be the only shelter to weather the coming "Perfect Financial Storm".
A moody cb2

Just received Standard Life financial statements. Big losses for year 2002. There goes our retirement.
Many folks must be looking at same numbers this morning. I wonder how many account holders will take action to terminate their accounts and how many know what investment alternatives are. Sadly many do not read these statements at all and don not realize their retirement pensions are up in smoke. And we are not even sub 5000 for DJ30. Today's Netscape home page shows 9/11 smoke blanketing lower Manhattan. I think US economy had its best days of unsustainable run up. Lower standard of living will take hold on most North Americans, excluding elite. Allan Greenspan (AG) surprised me by signals gold standard. Who is against him??? My take this would be big spenders. They stand most to loose. Such people are king makers who finance politicians. Nothing changed from The Last Days of Pompey.

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/03/02/1046540067813.html(excerpt)
March 3 2003 -- Increased December-quarter production thanks to the commissioning of new mines was not enough to stop the year-on-year slide in Australia's gold production in 2002.

According to a survey by Surbiton Associates, released yesterday, gold production for 2002 fell by 3 per cent to 275 tonnes (8.8 million ounces).

The Melbourne-based mining industry consultant said that the fall was the fifth in a row since the 1997 record of 314 tonnes of gold.

------(see url for article)------

Dollars, on the other hand...

It all comes down to supply and demand -- demand for something tangible and trustworthy. Have you ever heard the phrase "Good as dollars"? No, neither have I. In this great game of bridge (get it? "bridge" -- wealth to span time and space), pick a winning partner. Choose gold.

R.

Glad you posted.
You picked a good name, or, if you came here long ago, names were assigned.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2003/03/02/196556Sunday, Mar 02, 2003 (BLOOMBERG) -- Gold rose as the US dollar declined against the euro, prompting more buying of the dollar-denominated metal in Europe.

...The dollar fell against the euro for a third time this week and has lost 20 percent of its value against the European currency in the past year.

"New buying has come in with the dollar weakening," said Frank McGhee, head trader at Alliance Financial LLC, a gold-trading company in Chicago. "We're predominately trading on the dollar" after the rally spurred by war fears was deemed "overdone," he said.

-------(from url)----

Many Europeans are taking advantage of gold's strength versus the dollar. Main Street USA, are you? Call USAGOLD-Centennial this week for assistance.

R.

A course in the works of George Orwell should be offered in every high school in this country.IMO it would be one of the best ways to preserve freedom in this world 1984 is one of the most disturbing and thought provoking books I have read and if someone wants to read a good personel diary of the spanish civil war read Homage to Catalonia, great insight into the diffrent groups who made up the struggle. And remember Some are more equal than others.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&T=markets_box.ht∣dle=ad_frame2_all&s=APmIWSBTPSFNCQydzHEADLINE: HSBC's Marc Chandler Says Fed Policy Is Depressing U.S. Dollar

New York, March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at HSBC Bank USA, says that in 1986, when he answered an ad in the Chicago Tribune for a reporter to cover currency and Eurodollar futures at the International Monetary Market, he had one thing in mind: finding an interesting writing job.

After earning two master's degrees -- one in American history and one in international relations -- he wanted a job that wouldn't have him watching the clock every day. Seventeen years and eight foreign exchange-related jobs later, Chandler, 41, says he has no regrets about his career path, not even the 4 a.m. reveille, which he swears he manages without an alarm clock.

``It's the place for me that politics and economics come together,'' he says of the $1.2 trillion-a-day currency market. ``What I ultimately want is to be part of the dialogue and discussion of current events.''

[Tellingly...] From his desk on the New York currency-trading floor of HSBC, the world's 12th-biggest foreign exchange trader, Chandler says he spends most of his time supporting the bank's currency sales and marketing efforts. He does so by publishing research or strategy notes...

------(from url)------

Bottom line:
Consider, when the things you gather from mainstream media are largely influenced by input from folks just like this who are primarily "supporting [their] bank's currency sales and marketing efforts", do you think for one minute that you are going to get the inside track on things, or do you think maybe, just maybe, you will instead be served up as the hapless counterparty to the bank's attempt at profits for its own book? Think about it, then go for physical gold because mum's the prevailing word. Do think about it.

R.

Greetings Sir Nation of One,
Your post was interesting and I certainly am not equipped to disagree with you.
My thoughts as I rereread you post was that maybe this Dr H,
who is a contributer to the Daily Reckoning, had the same experieince Doug Nolan had.
If you are a Doug Nolan fan, I certainly am, lowly me used to wonder why Doug, persisted in his rants for a few years saying "The fed doesnt know what the hell they are doing"
When even me, student in the back of the class, was thinking, "uh, Doug, why dont you do an analysis from the vantage point of thinking that they DO know what they are doing, it is just that they are not following the rules you are assuming they must operate under.
And, if you are a Doug Nolan enthusiast, you will know that he did indeed change in 2002 to end denial and embrace the idea that foolish or not, the Fed knows precisely what they are doing. Not to say that they forsee the consequences of all thier actions, but that they are not dumb, they have hard choices and are weighing carefully as they can to accomplish thier most pressing goal first. Which I would guess is keeping the Dollar as reserve currency.
The Stranger gets a tip of the hat.

Town Crier made quite a post didnt he. This forum is loaded with gems. Set in gold of course.

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/reuters20030302_94.htmlWASHINGTON (Reuters) -
...a sizable group of private economists wonders if the economy's problems run deeper than geopolitical worries and argue that the main force depressing growth is a hangover from the boom years.

No matter how the crisis with Iraq plays out, the economy could well remain mired in sluggish growth throughout 2003, these economists contend.

"If, suddenly, we were to wake up tomorrow to the news that Saddam Hussein has quietly left Iraq, I don't think we'd necessarily see a return to trend growth for the economy," said Ed McKelvey, economist with Goldman Sachs and Co. in New York.

"The best way to think about the economy right now is it is still working out the imbalances that came alongside the stock market bubble of the late 1990s," he added.

...How big a role war worries are playing in the economy's performance may be clarified within coming months as the United States, which has been massing troops in the Gulf, has signaled that it does not want to wait much beyond mid-March to take action against Iraq.

...the outcome of any Iraq war might not be as clear-cut for the economy as was the resolution to the Gulf War in 1991. ...with the United States intent on "regime change," even a quick U.S. military victory in Iraq would give way to rebuilding with the cost possibly reaching into the hundreds of billions of dollars.

-----(see url for full text and Fed optimism)------

Not surprising, in its role as the economy's chief cheerleader and confidence booster, the Fed's stand in all this is that "once fears about a war in Iraq lift, U.S. economic growth should return to a healthy clip."

Served up with a grain of salt I'm sure. Our top Fed boys know better than that.

R.

Good posts lately, with sharp insights!

The currency trader for HSBC, for example. One thing not mentioned much here is that the big brokerage and banking firms handle hundreds of billions in trust or discretionary accounts for their clients.

With the plunge of mutual funds, we are finding out now that their standard is not to "make money for our clients", but to "lose less money than the competition does."

That keeps you un-indictable, apparently. Sheesh!

Sheep to the shearing, then slaughter.

All while possibly making your own "private arrangements" for safe retirement. Ones you wouldn't even tell your co-workers at HSBC or ML or GS about. "Stocks always come back -- yeah, right!" "Every man for himself." Why tip your hand? Job rotation is available every few years.

Silence is golden, and gold is silent.

http://moneycentral.communities.msn.com/BusinessCenter/general.msnw?action=get_message&mview=0&ID_Message=4824&LastModified=4675411844001161473Gold demons

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=540&e=2&u=/ap/20030302/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_us_iraqSnip:

ANKARA, Turkey - Turkey's ruling party has no plans in the "foreseeable future" to seek another parliament vote for the deployment of U.S. troops on Turkish soil for a war with Iraq, a party leader said Sunday.


The announcement by Eyup Fatsa, deputy head of the Justice and Development party, came a day after the legislature dealt a serious blow to U.S. war planning by failing to approve a motion to deploy U.S. soldiers, weapons and equipment.


"The proposal has been delayed to an open-ended time. There is no proposal for the foreseeable future," he told reporters after a party meeting to decide whether to resubmit the motion.

**********
Misetich

Vote may be delayed until UN backed resolution -if there will ever be one - the US war hawks plans are complicated - seeing they have a timetable to invade Iraq imminently

Somehow one can't help and ask what price the US and Britain are/will pay - at least on a world perception basis - in other areas

The costs of financing this "war" is increasing on a daily and the longer the "delay from the established War Hawks timetable" the costlier it will become as troops are being continuously deployed.

US "twin deficits" are growing - the economy slowing and going toward recession - job losses/layoffs are continuing -Oil prices are rising as are overall energy prices - housing and auto industry have began to slow -

What is holding up the US $?

You can only manipulate and deceive for so long until reality takes over

Got gold?

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1449New York Times examines Barrick's lagging share
price and the Blanchard lawsuit against Barrick
and Morgan Chase, and finds out that Barrick may
NEVER have to repay ANY borrowed gold.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

From what I've surmised, the purpose of banks/lessors is to get as many people/institutions as possible into hock. Do they care if the principle is never repaid, as long as the lessee can continue to make payments? When gold lease rates go up, Barrick might begin to consider returning the gold (paying off or paying down the principle). I could be missing something here, though.

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2003/2/28/nation/odcurren&sec=nationSnip:

PUTRAJAYA: The international community should be encouraged to use other currencies or even gold as the benchmark in international trade because the domination of the US dollar in global transactions is distorting the world?s economy, Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad said.
...........
?When we put too much value on a certain currency, it becomes very powerful and that currency actually works against us,? he said.

He added that since no nation would like ?just one single policeman in the world,? the Euro, yen or even gold should be used for transactions.

?We should be given the choice to use whatever currency that we want,? he said at a meeting with 31 foreign editors and senior journalists at his office yesterday.
.........
For the purpose of trade, we shouldn?t say that oil should be quoted only in US dollars.

Today, the oil price has gone up but the value of the US dollar has gone down, something that the people do not point out,? he added.

The oil price today, he said, was not actually US$36 if this was compared with the value of the dollar a year or three years ago.
.........
?This is a contradiction. Why is this happening?

?It is simply because we are giving value to the US dollar which it doesn?t really have.

?There is nothing to back the US dollar other than people?s belief in it,? he added.
...........
Misetich

"For the purpose of trade, we shouldn?t say that oil should be quoted only in US dollars. "

Only a matter of time - When not IF

Got gold?

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030221/lf_nm/venezuela_dollar_dc_1CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - At Isabel's beauty salon in downtown Caracas you can get more than a bikini wax, manicure or hair cut. You can now also dabble in the country's burgeoning black market.

Wedged next to a shuttered foreign currency exchange house, Isabel's is one of the newest additions to Venezuela's not-so-secret underworld of dollar traders looking to make quick cash off newly imposed draconian currency controls.

Embattled President Hugo Chavez unceremoniously shut currency markets last month, starving the nation of precious dollars in a bid to shield government foreign reserves from a swelling economic crisis.

"Hey mister, you looking for dollars?" one beauty salon worker whispers to Jose Dos Santos, who is just outside.

Breaking his worried gaze from the darkened windows of the currency exchange next door, Dos Santos blurts out a confused but determined, "Yes, miss. I am."

"I'm leaving tomorrow to live in Portugal and what am I going to do with bolivars over there?" he said.

Dos Santos might as well be the poster-boy for Venezuela's disillusioned immigrant population. He arrived here on the eve of the country's oil boom in the 1960s and opened a small grocery store.

"I've sold everything, my family has sold everything, we're leaving this country," he explained.

NEXT ARGENTINA?

The head of the government's new currency control board, retired army Capt. Edgar Hernandez, recently admitted the black market is "difficult to avoid and difficult to control."

"Leave a dollar free, floating around so the conspirators can slip in there? The dollar's value will rise and undermine the other controls. No, this must be an integrated system," President Chavez said during his weekly Sunday television broadcast.

..."We sell and buy gold," shouts out a middle-aged man in a Caracas plaza...

------(see url for full article)------

Tough business, this; life in the real world.

Put yourself in a position of strength. Own your gold, independent and immutable wealth, BEFORE you really, really need it. Buying a fire insurance policy provides no relief if you do it AFTER your house is in ashes.

A word to the wise.

R.

Congratulations on your natural gas trades. Congrats more on your research methods than on the profits since the methodology can be repeated, hopefully with the same positive results. The numbers of supply and demand seem to more accurately predict price movements on those commodities (like gas) whose supply and demand more closely follows a yearly cycle than do gold and silver, no? This pertains again to the unknown amount of existing stores. However, this is not to say that the numbers don't matter with metals, just that more patience is required.

But, maybe it is the nonconformity of yearly numbers to the price movement that creates even more potential for the under or over valuation of metals. I guess if price cycles exist with metals, they would tend to have a longer time frame so that the last low POG at $252 may have signaled the beginning of a very long bull market. I've read that currency cycles are very long, slow moving affairs. This also determines POG and its cycles. Perhaps the real market price determining factors are just slowly evolving conditions in comparison to one very cold winter?

I wanted to warn you of the tax consequences of your gas trade profits. One of the supporting reasons for physical ownership is that most local metals dealers deal only in cash and are not required to forward any IRS forms to report profit or loss for their clients. Paper traders are not exempt. Most commodity accounts are marked-to-market on a yearly basis and taxed partly as long term and partly as short term gains or loses. The danger is that the account can show taxable profits on the last day of the year but these profits may or may not be available by the time (April 15) the tax is due. Plan accordingly.

Lastly, I don't mean to imply you or anyone else can not handle his/her own monetary affairs. Please don't take offense. I believe there are more paper investors here than is commonly supposed and some may benefit from this warning. Those with large physical holdings may also be subject to windfall taxes, but I'll leave this subject alone as I have never had to deal with it before and know nothing about it.

Also, a word of thanks to BB and others for the continuing supply of information that may very well determine our future, whether that implies barely surviving or nicely prospering, I think we should be better prepared than those who lack the knowledge available here.
Happy weekend
Rich

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256CD9000F7127?OpenDocumentReceived by e-mail, message follows:
__________________________
The very interesting piece by Tim Wood [Randy's note: see the url I've provided above] re Newmont's hedging position, entitled 'Gold Hedging Brinkmanship is Here', set me to thinking.

Reasonably assuming that the physical gold borrowed by a bullion bank, such as J.P.Morgan/Chase from a central bank such as the U.S., the gold then being sold as part of the gold carry trade, with the proceeds invested at a higher yield than the cost of borrowing, such bullion bank, not being a producer of gold nor holder of physical gold, is not "creditworthy" to repay the physical gold. Under such circumstances, the central bank could not, under accounting rules, carry the loan as a "performing" loan and would have to write it off, with corresponding loss of physical gold reserve numbers.

Accordingly, plausible deniability as to such nonwriteoff by the central bank is required. So, the bullion bank guarantees its ability to repay the borrowed physical sufficient to prevent writeoff of the physical loan by the central bank by entering into a contract for delivery of physical from the gold mining company/producer such as American-Barrick. But a reasonably prudent gold producer such as Barrick would not maintain a large forward (hedge) position in a rising market, hence the contractual right in Barrick, as described in its company press release, to roll the hedge contracts forward up to fifteen (15) years at Barrick's sole election. But such contract provision would render such right in the bullion bank to gain the physical to honor its central bank repayment commitments as illusory for central bank accounting purposes, thus causing the physical gold loan to be written off.

Further, no reasonably prudent bullion bank would enter into such a contract with the gold producer since the bullion bank would not be gaining much (any) practical benefit. Therefor, the provision in the counterparty bullion bank, as described in the Tim Wood article, allowing the bullion bank to "break the contract" in advance of the physical delivery date, at the sole election of the bullion bank, and receive federal reserve notes computed at the prevailing gold price in lieu of the physical, allowing the bank to go into the physical spot market and buy the physical necessary to repay the central bank physical loan. Plausable deniability for accounting purposes is therefor created in the central bank as to the bullion banks ability to repay the physical loan, and the loan need not be written off for accounting purposes.

In this regard, it is interesting to note that it has been stated that no demand for such early breaking of such a contract has ever been received. If true, such nondemand would imply that no demand for repayment of the physical gold loan has ever been made by the central bank to the bullion bank. One may wonder how, if at all, the foregoing might impact the pending Blanchard lawsuit. EOM
____________________________

"Thank you, masked man" for that contribution of thought.

Thank you for your show of concern and advice offered and gratefully taken. I have a meeting next week with the CPA on this years taxes and planned on informing him of the upcoming crises. ( I made some money, oh no is right). Your post this morning was yet another example of the caliber of people who surround this table. It has been an honor to sit, oft times in the corner, on my stole and learn from others who know much more than I. And yes, I play at the paper games in order to acquire additional wealth. "Profits" from the paper game are quickly moved into the physical and holding for a long time. As in, I hope someday my children and grandchildren will benefit and think kindly of the "old man". And with the many mistakes during my years, perhaps this pile of gold and silver will redeem some of my younger years errors.

In retrospect, I regret the earlier posting. I certainly did not want to come across as bragging. I was not. At the time I was furious at the treatment Black Blade was recieving at the other message board. The Irish tempter rose up upon seeing a good man unjustly maligned with his only "crime" being trying to help others at no charge no less. I started to write that post with some distance from myself by writing, if you had purchased those calls...etc. Then I decided, no, I wanted them to know that someone had actually done so and profited from listening to BB. The point I was trying to make was that BB had been gracious enough to suggest that energy prices would rise. His lead ( I tend to listen to people who have experience in any given area) was followed up by some research and as luck would have it, a good trade was made. It will be my pleasure, and duty, to gladly trade the FRN's for the real deal, physical gold and silver. Each gold or silver eagle is a vote, a message sent, to stop the madness, to stop the FRN printing press, and bring our country back to some form of reality. Vote as often as you can.

It was also a pleasure to play a game that was more open and honest than I am used to seeing in the PM's. Demand/Supply was at work and one could witness first hand the operation of a "free market" in action. No hidden power, no Central Bank, to slam dunk the action. Quite a refreashing experience and gives hope that one day Gold and Silver will be set free of it's "bondings". With all that is happening in the world today, and with the solid track record of gold last year underpinning us, perhaps the time will be soon. We wait patiently, and watch.

Best to you on this fine Sunday afternoon.
Operative

http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,6057256%255E13762,00.htmlTwo trillion dollar arrest

March 01, 2003

POLICE have arrested a man with two trillion US dollars in forged US treasury bonds in his possession, police said yesterday.
The 63-year-old man was arrested late yesterday in a raid on his flat in downtown Hong Kong.

Sixteen boxes, each containing 4000 forged bonds, were also seized.

Police raided 47 locations where suspected fake bank documents including standby letters of credit, bank guarantees, US Federal Reserve bonds and promissory notes were seized.

The Daily Telegraph
____________________
I wonder if any foreign government or terror group is involved
in this operation? Seems like it should be a bigger media story.

The price of gold needs to complete its ABC down. We probably will bottom around this $340 price.
As for the sale of gold by the bank of Portugal, who is the buyer? We always hear about the gold sales, but never the buyers. Could it be that the banks just sell their gold to each other so that the sale can be announced to the public? Would the purpose of this be to drive the gold price down? Would this result in speculator -paper longs losing their shirts? I find it difficult to believe that any of the banks have actually removed physical gold from their vaults. Just a thought.

If the usd rallies,if the war is quick,if there is no terrorism,if there is no war,if there are no scanadals/bankrupcies,if oil goes down after the war then all the record debt will just magically disappear.What is wrong with you people,the time to invest in the down jones and nasdog has never been better.We have rising inflation,rising debt,rising unemployment and war/terrorism.We have geo political concerns,japan(number 2 economy) is broke,germany(number 3) in its worst state since ww2,argentina,venezuela,columbia,brazil.I just dont understand why people dont understand the market will just magically go up after the war based solely on no fundamental reasons whatsover.Dont worry about the middle east,north korea,iraq or the soon to collapse saudi arabian monarchy.We have russia,france ,germany and china all upset with the us and a printing machine running like no tommmorow.Now we find out trillions of usd are forgeries.

All this confuses me,dont you know wall st never lies, doesnt use false accounting(proforma) and they only have your best interest at heart.The real estate bubble can never pop,and oh ya so what if taxes are going up,thats a good thing isnt it?People are so silly,you would think by now they would know,gold is bad since it is the best performing asset for 2 years and if they just stick their head in the sand all this will go away.People argue just because the markets are going down 3 years running we are in a recession and that it may go down a fourth year.Cant you people see how much good news this is.Forget about history the world started in 1990 so thats as far back as any model should go,these nuts buying gold.They should be buying strong investments which are trustworthy like enron,worldcom,ual,tyco,adlephia,k mart etc.

Gold is bad because we cant print it'service charge it or make it disappear from your accounts.Dont you want big govt overspending your hard earned tax dollars and inflating away any savings you have.Dont you like fixed inflation numbers?I mean ,just think ,this is just the beginning of all the good news.So your retirement fund is losing 38 percent per year,just think in a couple of years it will be zero and then you dont have to worry about it anymore.What do people need money for anyway?You can feed your childern with debt,clothe them ,house them and put them through school all with debt.People have become confused and forgotten how good debt is.What will it take before you thank us?100 percent inflation and 80 percent taxes?Dont you see all the kids can just get a job at starbucks and pay 80 percent taxes and all will be well.The longer living elderly population can sleep safely at night knowing the next generation will gladly have no home,no children and no future just to support our pie in the sky dream?They will never rebel,their morals which we have instilled in them would never allow them to hate or despise us.

All thse silly goldbugs talking about history,fundamentals,free markets and fraud.They should know by now,if we just ignore it,it will all go away.



written by the head of propaganda.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030302/venezuela_bomb_2.htmlCARACAS, Venezuela, March 2 (Reuters) - A car bomb exploded early on Sunday in the western Venezuelan oil city of Maracaibo, destroying three cars and damaging homes and a local office of the U.S. oil company Chevron Texaco (NYSE:CVX - News), police said.

http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,6057256%255E13762,00.htmlNEMO

Why, do you think they missed all the gold depository certificates ?!

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/5290493.htmSome views of a successful boutique money manager from Florida...

Snip:

"

Since our last conversation in March of 2000, zero-coupon treasuries are up 43.5 percent. The S&P 500 Index is down 41 percent. He said long-term Treasury bond yields would drop from 6.15 percent then to 4.6 percent. They are now paying about 4.7 percent.

O'Higgins manages $200 million at his boutique investment firm in Miami Beach that caters to clients with assets of at least $1 million. He's been a top money manager for more than 20 years and has written best-selling investment books, Beating the Dow and Beating the Dow with Bonds. He's best known for his Dogs of the Dow theory, which worked well for quite a while when the market was still going up.

Today, O'Higgins won't touch a Dow stock or almost any other stock at current prices.

...

Right now, O'Higgins is only interested in gold, which he sees as undervalued and heading up because of deflation. ''Because it's real money, because it has held its value for thousands of years, because it's not subject to the manipulations of government or central banks or dishonest corporate executives,'' he says.

What's more, gold goes up when stocks go down. In 1929-1932, he notes that gold rose 69 percent. And indeed, in the last 12 months, it is up 20 percent. Yet its price is still far below what it traded for in 1980: $850, or roughly 2 � times higher than today's roughly $350 an ounce. Global supplies of gold, too, are dwindling.

...

He makes a convincing case, in charts and newspaper clippings, for his thought that there's little that will stop this downturn until the speculative bubble in stocks and spending is completely deflated.

It is not so, yet. For example, he notes that consumer spending has dropped in every recession since the 1950s, but not in this one. Stock valuations remain high, despite the long downturn.

"

Sundeck:

I guess it is a lot easier for the boutiques to move their assets around and take advantage of relatively small markets like gold and gold stocks. The problem the big firms have is that there is no game big enough at the moment in which they can all play...and win. The strategy is to minimise the rate at which public disillusionment (with recent successful investment strategies) sets in. Minimise outflows at all costs! The wise ones will get into gold while the price is still low.

:-)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030228-fri.html
Snippit:

Not all shocks are alike. Nor do they exert comparable impacts on macro economic performance. Shock analysis has two critical dimensions � the magnitude and duration of the shock itself, as well the pre-shock condition of the affected economy. On both counts, the oil shock of 2003 is extremely worrisome. That leads me to conclude that the risks of renewed recession in the US and in the US-centric global economy are high and rising.

There are times when it pays to be overly-simplistic on the global macro call. This is one of those times. Three key points are most obvious to me insofar as the cyclical prognosis for the world economy is concerned: First, in a US-centric world, the global call is basically a call on the US economy. Second, the US is in the midst of a classic oil shock. And, third, that shock has occurred at a point of maximum vulnerability � when a US-centric industrial world had slowed to a virtual standstill. The conclusion is inescapable: The recession warning model that I have long advocated is now flashing a serious alert for the US and for the US-centric global economy. A stalling economy lacks the cyclical immunities that cushion it from an unexpected blow. A stalling economy that has been hit by a shock is a recipe for recession. Unfortunately, it's that simple.

It's educated guesswork as to where oil prices are headed. It's a painful reality check to see where they have come from. Crude oil (WTI spot) prices have now pierced the $37 threshold � fully 89% above the level prevailing in January 2002. Moreover, as of the close of February 27, oil prices have now equaled the highs of $37.20 hit on September 20, 2000, that played an important role in triggering the recession of 2001. With oil inventories low, disruptions in Venezuela lingering, and war looming, the risk is that oil prices will move higher before they begin their fairly typical post-shock mean reversion. But those risks lie in a murky and uncertain future. At this point in time, the facts speak for themselves � an oil shock has already occurred.

In and of themselves, shocks don't always cause recessions. That's where pre-shock resilience comes into play � the economy's ability to withstand the blow of a shock. Sadly, the industrial world is far from being resilient at this point in time. The world's three largest economies � the United States, Japan, and Germany � were all in lousy shape as 2002 came to an end. The US economy inched ahead at just a 0.7% annual rate in 4Q02, and Germany's growth rate was estimated at "zero." Ironically, Japan was the strongest of the lot, with a +2.0% sequential annualized growth, but most have been quick to dismiss this estimate as statistical hocus-pocus for an otherwise weak Japanese economy (see Takehiro Sato's February 24 dispatch, "The National Accounts vs. Reality"). To me, the conclusion is inescapable: With the industrial world at its stall speed, the current oil shock � to say nothing of the related confidence shock � hurts a good deal more than would be had been the case in a more vigorous growth climate.


Black Blade: Stephen Roach points out that the energy crisis will crush the global economy. With oil production at near capacity and energy in general at high cost there will be no "economic recovery" this year, in the "second half", or next year.

TownCrier, may I restate the words of the masked man in 98730 to see if I have it right...

The bullion banks and Barrick set up a postponable forward sale arrangement in order to create a visible means of repayment for gold owed by the bullion banks to central banks. This allowed the central banks to keep the gold on their records as reserves.

So, with gold still on the books, the central banks are happy to get some interest on the lent out gold.

The bullion banks profit from the interest spread and have the option to call for at least fiat payment, if necessary, from Barrick. The "if necessary" might apply if lease rate renewals became too expensive.

Barrick has profited from the forward sales and may defer delivery into the forward sales for as long as necessary but may be subject to either a fiat repayment or, after notification, delivery set for a date 14 years forward. Also, Barrick is not under any margin requirements.

It may be that everyone involved benefited from this arrangement with the only risk being the actual availability of physical should the leases ever be terminated. That is, if physical was actually moved as opposed to the paper sale by the bullion banks of leased central bank gold. Perhaps both GATA and CPM are partially correct with 5,000 tonnes physically gone and paper liens for another 10,000 tonnes? Whatever the number and whether sold with physical delivery or on paper, the offsetting of these leases should move the POG.

If half the central bank gold is gone, I would guess that (with disclosure) the POG would move much higher but I've thought the same for years with silver and now wonder if a shortage in immediately deliverable silver will be necessary to really awaken the silver market. I know there is a world of difference between gold and silver but still wonder...
Thoughts?
Rich

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/nrg2/topnew/enews.cgi?ptitle=Oil%20News&touch=1&T=enews_story.ht&s=EmJeaUbGttXVsaRY4
Snippit:

Chicago, March 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail gasoline prices, up 45 percent in the past year, have further to climb, analysts said. After all it's only March. Gasoline prices are at a record for this time of year, and they typically rise from now until summer as weather warms and people drive more. The retail gasoline price has risen an average of 15 percent from February to May the past five years, according to government data. ``I think you can expect to see steadily rising prices,'' said Ed Silliere, vice president of risk management at Energy Merchant LLC in New York, which markets gasoline and heating oil to local distributors. ``The gasoline picture looks like it's going to be very lean for quite some time.'' U.S. inventories of gasoline are below a year ago and falling, while supplies of crude oil have been pinched for three months by a strike in Venezuela. ``This is the time of year when typically you have high stocks and you're building,'' said Steven Strongin, head of commodities research at Goldman, Sachs & Co. ``This year, it's hard to figure out how you're going to build them.'' Refiners are passing along the rising cost of crude, which this week touched $39.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest level since Iraq occupied Kuwait in 1990. ``Crude-oil inventories are dangerously low,'' said Phil Flynn, a senior energy trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``We are only one small problem away from the minimum amount needed to operate the nation's refineries.''


Black Blade: Refiners are still working to build heating oil supply before maintenance shutdowns prior to gasoline production (various reformulated blends) for driving season. Looks like high gasoline prices will persist.

http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/retirement/newswire/2003/03/02/rtr894552.htmlSnip:

"
TOKYO, March 3 (Reuters) - The dollar edged up against the yen and the euro in early Asian trade on Monday, adding to gains made after Japanese authorities revealed late last week that they had intervened in the market to stem the yen's further rise.

But traders said the confirmation was not a surprise and it was unlikely to weaken the yen much further.

"Everybody suspected they had intervened and the confirmation only made it official," said a trader at a major Japanese bank. "The market is not going to trade on this."

The Bank of Japan revealed in a monthly report that it had sold 513 billion yen ($4.34 billion) in February's interventions compared with 678 billion yen in January.

The Ministry of Finance confirmed that it had asked the BOJ to step into the market a few times in late February and that it bought both dollars and euros, but the euro buying had been "far less" than the buying of dollars for yen.

"

Sundeck: Buying about $5B per month to prop up the dollar. How long is Japan going to keep growing dollar reserves?

Re: "How long is Japan going to keep buying dollar reserves?"
Choose from one or more of the following multiple choice answers:
a) Until they run out of trees
b) Until oil is priced in Euros
c) Until oil is priced in Dinars
d) Until it is no longer fashionable to do so
e) Until the next Tsunammi, earthquake or other natural or manmade catastrophe
f) None of the above

To fully appreciate my postings, you need to understand that I am not formally schooled in any branch of finance but have been very interested in stock markets since about the age of 17, and I have eagerly, and consistently, kept up with it since then. That was about 45 years ago. In addition to this, my ideas are flavored with a tendency to prefer unconventional beliefs, not just to be different, but because what most people believe seems to me to be profoundly deficient, in terms of its relation to reality. I don't condemn the people themselves for this. I just don't agree with their ideas. There is a surprising reason for this, but I won't go into it. Further, my intention is to understand and to convey understandings about the way market really work. It is because of this mix of ingredients, in my style, that my postings might sometimes seem uninformed, for what most people know and take for granted I often have discarded, or have not even seen. And because my activities have always tended to be outside the norm -I guess that's one way to say it, since they are often perceived that way by others- what is typically considered to be established wisdom and sure knowledge, I consider to be neither certain nor wise. Often, I have gotten into trouble because of this, on account of being mistaken. But there have indeed been times -and this is what makes it worthwhile- when I have understood something in a new way and it was such an improvement it was shocking. The reason I post at all, knowing that sometimes I will appear to be an idiot, is to pass these on, so that I will have some reason for my existence. Of course it is no coincidence that my interests are currently concentrated in gold, and that many others here at this forum are also thought of as 'bugs'.

Mikal

Option (a)? Nope! I thought they had already run out of trees. Turned them first into rice farms and then into golf courses. :-) Instead of paper, 'though, Japan could use polymer notes (like Australia) made from imported coal or petroleum. At the moment they are able to buy lots of petroeum and coal with their increasing dollar reserves. However, countries that provide Japan with oil and coal are going to start squeeling about contracts written in dollars because those country's "commodity currencies" are appreciating against the dollar, which means they get less and less in terms of their own currencies for their exports.

Option (b)? Definitely a goer! Perhaps this is why Japan is buying some Euros along with its pile of dollars; just in case the tectonic plates lurch suddenly, the dollar is subducted and Euro heaves further into view, hot and smoking, but ready for colonisation!

Option (c)? Yes, an outside chance. Worth including in your quinella or trifecta bet. After all, the financial plates are on the move and separating, and more than one may be a viable place to store your assets. So far as I know, it is not ordained that there be just ONE reserve currency for the world? Gold could be important in a Dinar scenario.

Option (d)? Ahhh...yes. Fashion! It is easier to conform with the fashion than run against it. But fashion is fickle. Once some subtle changes occur the herd switches rapidly to the new regime. But not anyone can be the instrument of change. And also the herd has to be tired of the old regime. We are seeing some leaders in the new fashion, are we not? Russia? Malaysia? Small, but influential fashion houses. Yes, I see fashion playing a role.

Option (e)? A major act of god? God forbid! However, if one should occur it could provide an "excuse" for Japan to restructure parts of its economy of necessity, in ways less dependent upon exports to the US and more dependent upon "domestic consumption" and/or self-sufficiency. It could "relieve the inertia for change" in Japan.

Option (f)? It's hard to imagine that none of the above factors will play a role, but there may well be additional ones.

:-)

Sundeck

I just took a look at the gold charts and noticed we are again down a hefty $3.50 oz. With that in mind does anyone have an idea as to when the fed and hedgers (both are joined at the hip) would be satisfied with a price that they have papered down gold to ? 300.00 may be too dangerous to short but would 320 to 325 be about right ?
I've played this game for 20 years and just about figured the only way to make any money is when gold has been shorted just a hair too much then one could go long.
Any thoughts or speculation from anyone on what the right price is for the enemy?

kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)
===
3) MOST IMPORTANTLY, your "confession" as an entry in the ESSAY portion of the contest must accompany the Price prognostication.

An essay contest in answering the following (in more than 30 words):
"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . ."
===
I shall await your "confession" before accepting your POG entry !
<;-)

Cyberbat,

Good question.

Without inside information it is impossibile to predict the machinations of the big players.

However, FWIW gold has followed a fairly close (statistical)relationship with the USDX over the last couple of years. With the USDX at 100, I feel it is unlikely that the POG will stray below $340 for more than a few days at a time without recovering.

As I see it, with the USDX at 100, "fair value" for gold is between about $340 and $370.

As always IMO only and DYODD

Cheers

:-)

Greeting ANoO,
Out of the box thinking is something that can and does work in your favor. No surprise then that you found yourself here, where folks strive for answers that are not readily provided in many other places. Heck, any comments you make
from left or any field are a welcome part of the wild wide view we get here of the unfolding, barely in control, momentous, very relevant titanic struggle for economic advantage.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/134644367_econoil02.html
Snippit:

The sign in front of a gas station in Pacifica, Calif., is evidence of the current spike in oil prices, which has contributed to a global economic slowdown. The most common cause of recessions, a surge in oil prices, is afflicting the global economy again. Just as they have before every American downturn over the past 40 years, energy costs have increased significantly in the past year, capped by a sharp spike since December. With more money being spent on gasoline and heating fuel, economic growth has slowed in the United States and Europe, and the uneven recovery that began in late 2001 is facing perhaps its biggest threat yet. "The economy is extremely fragile," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, a research company in West Chester, Pa. "We've got some real problems if this drags on for any length of time." Since World War II, every time that oil prices have increased by at least 60 percent, a recession has occurred in the United States, with the exception of a one-month blip in oil prices in 1987. The current annual increase is similar in size to the jumps of late 1990, when a recession was starting, and the summer of 2000, nine months before another began. Higher energy costs reduce economic growth by effectively forcing families and businesses to send more money to a small number of oil-producing countries, leaving less for goods and services that create jobs at home. About one-third of Americans say the recent spike has caused them "financial hardship," according to a recent Gallup poll. More than one-quarter said they thought gas prices would be near their current level six months from now, and about one-half said they would increase. "I think it's going to get much worse," Teri Chavez, a public-relations executive in Denver, said as she filled the tank of her blue Volvo station wagon last week. "Does it mean that I'm going to stop driving? No. But I might think twice before I take my car up in the mountains."

Black Blade: It's going to get much worse as inventories tighten and production declines. The current recession could last for years.

your interesting remark: "...I've played this game for 20 years and just about figured the only way to make any money is when gold has been shorted just a hair too much then one could go long. Any thoughts or speculation from anyone on what the right price is for the enemy?"

--I expect 325 or lower, then back, maybe. I think 317 is below the most reasonable level of support. Somewhere around 330 should be the new support, if the rule is true that resistance levels become support levels when the price moves above them.

"Heck, any comments you make ... are ... welcome ...."

--Thanks. I'll keep that in mind.

Sorry about my negative note. I'm often wrong. But I don't think there is any reason for genuine pessimism, even if my expectations are correct. What seems important to me is that people's general interest in gold's potential is picking up. I think I am seeing an ongoing, steady, long term increase in this factor, which I believe is one of the most reliable, and one of the most easily recognizable, indicators. Internet financial pages, newspapers, magazines, tv news shows have all made increasingly positive implicative statements referring to gold. These are minor referrences. But there is no question that big money fully understands that gold is headed higher. The public is informed last. And it is informed in a controlled way, according to the interests of strongly monied hands, such that, as gold heats up, more and more of the public will be drawn in, in increasing numbers. This same thing happens in stocks and -I suspect- in every similar type market from time to time.

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlUP-DATE of Listings as of SUNDAY 3/2/03 22:30 Denver Time !

VISIT the CONTEST Link above for ALL the data.

NOTE to CONTEST entrants -- Please check to see if your "Prognostication" number has been taken in any newly entered guess, AFTER the above posting time, just before you submit yours, so that there are not any duplications !

**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)

**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)

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Apr 03 HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 Yesterday's Open Interest 107869

Sir Kevin$ is now "King of the Hill" on 2/28/03

Hi Misetich,
I did want to give you the last word option, and you did pose a question or two, here is a link that was an offshoot of the Town Crier post below. Relates to one issue you raised.
--"The gold price had previously risen by about $ 80 in summer 1993. Then the FED and the Treasury decided to suppress the gold price in order to benefit the banking system, which would otherwise have suffered huge losses as a result of short positions. A further objective was to defend the US dollar as a reserve currency within the central banking system.
Presumably, the gold price manipulation had a bearing on exchange rates, interest rates, indebtedness, money flows, the trade deficit, artificial wealth and the stock market bubble. Dimitri Speck"--
(This defense of the dollar as reserve currency mentioned above, is supported still by the Central Banks of the world and a recent gold sale by Portugal is a confirmation of that. It is my guess that the euro boys are not interested in a gold system either. If they were ever to somehow get reserve currency status, if they werent destroyed in the process, they would want the ability to deficit spend like we get to do here. They are not more honest, there is no evidence of that ! What in the world is bill murphy thinking? That some new dawn will come if the US drops the ball and as you say "the EU is the new superpower" actually happens? As the WHO song says, "here is the new boss, same as the old boss" And THEY will manipulate the gold price !
Why do you think they wont? One fiat to another, what gold utopia? It is part of that poorly thought out gata thinking.
Not only is history not a factor in the analysis, but the future beyond the supposed chaos is not analyzed !
Just that rooting for skyrocketing gold price.

Your recent post below was qoutes from.......
--"Mahathir Mohamad said;
?When we put too much value on a certain currency, it becomes very powerful and that currency actually works against us,?"--
(Mahathir might be shocked to discover that no matter what currency gets reserve currency duties, HIS country will be stuck in the same boat it is now.)
--"He added that since no nation would like ?just one single policeman in the world,? the Euro, yen or even gold should be used for transactions."--
(mahathir, the french and germans have no military ! And the yen? Forget it, none of the Japs neighbors want to see Japan as the big policeman. Gold? what, is he going to throw gold at evil doers? Hard to replace the US as world cop.)
--"There is nothing to back the US dollar other than people?s belief in it,? he added."--
(mahathir's theory on using gold for trade was debunked here within the last couple weeks convincingly. I guess his comments are his attempt to educate the Central Bankers of the world. I dont expect to see him holding a class at the next g-7 summit !)

Seems that this fracture in the UN regarding the invasion of Iraq could result in US going it alone and would represent a major disregard for UN resolutions that would result in a major NWO setback. That's what has kept GB from going it alone. The NWO wants to represent a consensus not a dictum. Bush is a NWO kinda guy. What would happen if Saddam declared that there would be "nuclear disasters"(ala NK) around the world should we invade? We would be there tonight to everybodies delight(regardless of UN sayso) saving the world. The NWO outside of the USA would frown(and save face locally) but would accept the action. But nay, Saddam has acceded to our every demand. 150+ inspectors have had unimpeded access and turned up nothing. The problem is that he is cooperating! Oh, a few missiles that travel 95 instead of 85 miles or something like that. Big threat. He is destroying those missiles. What else are we fed? That his WMD float around the world hidden in ships on the high seas. Why have we not stopped and searched those ships as we did when we found the hidden N. Korean missiles? Our intelligence is capable of tracking every major vessel on the globe.
Don't get me wrong. Saddam is our enemy. We have had many international enemies in the past. But, we have not gone to war with them without direct provocation. This military action is not about disarmament(we can get that from current actions), it is about oil and USD dominance as the world's de facto reserve currency.
I think Turkey's USA/IMF/GrBr/NWO rejection may establish a negative precedant with regard to UN dictates. We(IMF) thought we could buy(control) anybody.
GrBr's old money is closely associated with our Fed, but their new money seems to want to lean toward the Euro. Major Euro participants prefer no war. Only the USA and it's closest of allies favor(will not dissapprove of) going in.
What's all this got to do with the price of tea in China(gold)? Well, the IMF/USD/paper dominance is being challenged by the establishment of the BIS/Euro/paper/GOLD players to compete on the same playing field. The Euro team understands that gold plays an important role with the Giants and is offering a gold kicker with their fiat.
These 30 ton transactions do not represent our(USAG)trades. The Giants are absorbing all that is offered at higher and higher prices. Producer hedges are being wound down. AG will be stepping down soon and leaving this USD mess to a fall guy. Unless, of course, we are willing to believe his old philosophy, as well as his recent verbage, that gold should play a role in US monetary policy. Perhaps that will be his saving legacy. To reestablish gold's monetary role and save the USD from oblivion. Given the respect he has, he could do it. I don't think a new guy could sell it.
Anyway, if we go in and whack Saddam, with UN approval, then happy days are here again. USD dominates(temporarily).
If we go in, without the UN's blessing:
1)we kick butt
A)world(UN) accepts=USD dominates(temporarily)
B)world(UN) whines=they lean toward euro/gold
2)we get involved in a drawn out urban/terrorist war
A)=B)=world will abandon us and we are SOL as far as USD is concerned
Any which way it goes, we're #$%^&*(.
People favor the underdog. If the USA has to go in to the later rounds fighting this war, the sentiment will quickly turn against us and we will find ourselves wanting. After all, what can the Arabs et. al. get from us for their oil that they can't get from Europe or Asia? A currency with intrinsic value? Ha Ha! They can demand and get what they want from us. We're lucky that their current regimes want what we have to offer. The Euro is not perfect but it's gold component does add some stability. The Euro members have everything to offer them except perhaps the military might. Wait a minute. We and the Euro block are supposed to be allies. We should not be comparing military might. Ah, times do change. The Arabs have indicated that they will only hang with us as long as we have UN backing. If we go in to Iraq without it, a mideast crisis seems assured. And what about Israel? Seems like they've been active but not getting much attention. I don't think the Euro block is as willing to back the Jewish interest as we are. Who will the Arabs favor in this situation? Can you blame them? Given all the aforementioned as well as our ongoing and increasing budget deficits, our ongoing and increasing current account deficit, as well as our ongoing and increasing national deficit, our dollar will succumb to these pressures. Regardless of the outcome of this military confrontation, our dollar is destined to weaken.
Enough of this rant. Can't think anymore. Time to go to bed. More Later.

Remember: While paper burns, gold only melts.

The trick imo is to regard "your" physical Gold as "priceless"... if you're talking about PoG then look no further than the timing of Dollar falls over the last 12 Mth's.
All things being equal, (no shocks) the next leg down will be May-June (PoG to 400)
It's designed to bolster repatriation of O/S currencies so the Q2 DoW reporting gets a kick along. They may even do it for Q1.

The way it's shaping though, I doubt "things" will remain "equal".

http://www.fair.org/press-releases/kamel.htmlI don't know if anyone posted this as yet. It came out on February 27TH. It is pretty important from the looks of it.

I guess it's gold related since if they blow up the Oil wells, gold might soar. Then again Saddam seems to be cooperating now.

Snippet:

FAIR �Fairness & Accuracy In Reporting
112 W. 27th Street � New York, NY 10001

MEDIA ADVISORY:
Star Witness on Iraq Said Weapons Were Destroyed
Bombshell revelation from a defector cited by White House and press

February 27, 2003
On February 24, Newsweek broke what may be the biggest story of the Iraq crisis. In a revelation that "raises questions about whether the WMD [weapons of mass destruction] stockpiles attributed to Iraq still exist," the magazine's issue dated March 3 reported that the Iraqi weapons chief who defected from the regime in 1995 told U.N. inspectors that Iraq had destroyed its entire stockpile of chemical and biological weapons and banned missiles, as Iraq claims.

Until now, Gen. Hussein Kamel, who was killed shortly after returning to Iraq in 1996, was best known for his role in exposing Iraq's deceptions about how far its pre-Gulf War biological weapons programs had advanced. But Newsweek's John Barry-- who has covered Iraqi weapons inspections for more than a decade-- obtained the transcript of Kamel's 1995 debriefing by officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.N. inspections team known as UNSCOM.
Inspectors were told "that after the Gulf War, Iraq destroyed all its chemical and biological weapons stocks and the missiles to deliver them," Barry wrote. All that remained ere "hidden blueprints, computer disks, microfiches" and production molds. The weapons were destroyed secretly, in order to hide their existence from inspectors, in the hopes of someday resuming production after inspections had finished. The CIA and MI6 were told the same story, Barry reported, and "a military aide who defected with Kamel... backed Kamel's assertions about the destruction of WMD stocks."

But these statements were "hushed up by the U.N. inspectors" in order to "bluff Saddam into disclosing still more."

CIA spokesperson Bill Harlow angrily denied the Newsweek report. "It is incorrect, bogus, wrong, untrue," Harlow told Reuters (2/24/03) the day the report appeared.

But on Wednesday (2/26/03), a complete copy of the Kamel transcript-- an internal UNSCOM/IAEA document stamped "sensitive"-- was obtained by Glen Rangwala, the Cambridge University analyst who in early February revealed that Tony Blair's "intelligence dossier" was plagiarized from a student thesis. This transcript can be seen at http://www.fair.org/press-releases/kamel.pdf.

In the transcript (p. 13), Kamel says bluntly: "All weapons-- biological, chemical, missile, nuclear, were destroyed."

Who is Hussein Kamel?
Kamel is no obscure defector. A son-in-law of Saddam Hussein, his departure from Iraq carrying crates of secret documents on Iraq's past weapons programs was a major turning point in the inspections saga.

Trojan: Rather interesting

http://www.canada.com/ottawa/story.asp?id={1F5076F3-4B2F-4724-8EC2-738CCC799C57}
Snippit:

NEW YORK (AP) - No sooner did hints of rising inflation emerge than the muttering began on Wall Street about the possible return of dreaded stagflation. It was last seen three decades ago, when rising inflation, failing growth and surging unemployment crippled the North American economy. No one would welcome its return. It's not that the economy faces this grim scenario just yet. But a prolonged war, continued increases in energy prices or the economy's failure to recharge soon might make stagflation a possibility in the not-so-distant future. In periods of stagflation, economic growth is feeble but inflation roars ahead - as it normally would during times of rapid expansion. It's a term that was coined in the 1970s after the OPEC oil embargo caused a dramatic surge in the cost of crude oil and gasoline and sent inflation soaring. "High inflation pushed up interest rates and eroded buying power, and as a result consumer and business spending remained soft, preventing the economy from growing," said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis. "It was a vicious combination of factors." Every few years, fears of stagflation return.

Black Blade: Stagflation looks like a real possibility these days.

Spot going haywire this afternoon in the Far East. Went up 3 bucks, down 3 bucks and up 3 bcks again in the space of about an hour. No news of anything dire on the wire yet thouh.

We have energy prices rising, with unleaded going for over two dollars per gallon and with natural gas raising the price of electricity. Because Turkey has backed out, the logistics of an Iraq war just became more expensive. North Korea is threatening "horrible nuclear disaster" and al Quaeda has plans to crash hijacked airliners into the the Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbor.

All these current events are taking place against an economic backdrop that includes the following:
* 401K plans in ruins and people starting to realize that their company's pension funds (or their state teachers' retirement fund or whatever) were invested in the those same wretched stocks
* Greenspan saying positive things about gold
* Between the euro and the dinar, some probability that oil will be priced in something other than dollars. Which says there'll be less demand for the dollar. Which -- if supply and demand still works -- says the dollar will become worth less.

Putting it all together, the US government will have to print even more currency than it would have to pay in the near term for things like Iraq and in the longer term for things like social security checks for baby boomers.

With all this going on and being realized by more and more people, the price of gold is DOWN??? Go figure.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/charts/cdcharttcl?symm=GLD.FX1&hist=1&dbrushwidth=1&charttype=1&gd1=na&gd2=na&benchmark=∈fos=3∈dtype1=0∈dtype2=0&volumen=2
Gold has nearly recovered its losses in Asian trade overnight. Gold was under pressure after it was learned that Japan in a desperate bid to salvage its imploding economy has been buying dollars and euros, and selling worthless yen last month. The situation in Japan is becoming desperate as the insolvent banking sector is on the verge of collapse. This should get interesting as the story unfolds.

- Black Blade

http://yellowtimes.org/article.php?sid=1114&mode=threadℴ=0Snips:
"
By Paul Harris
YellowTimes.org Columnist (Canada)

(YellowTimes.org) � After World War II, a conference at Bretton Woods pegged the value of gold at U.S. $35 per ounce. That artificially established number had the virtue of a fixed target against which the currencies and the productivity of the world's nations could be measured. This allowed for economic stability and for fair and easily understandable international trade.

In one of his most disastrous moves as President of the United States, Richard Nixon abandoned the "gold standard" and allowed the American dollar to float against everyone else's currency. Because of the huge value of American productivity, the U.S. dollar soon became the de facto standard against which everything else was measured. But it was a moving target. To what this has led is 30 or so years of currency speculation that has been a total disaster for all but the strongest players.
...
Currency trading dwarfs all other financial transactions. The daily global volume of currency transactions is nearly $1.5 trillion. It is estimated that 80-90 percent of those transactions have nothing to do with the exchange of goods or services or productivity or exploration or development; they are just speculation. Kind of like an international game of craps.
...
Global financial speculative behavior has become rampant. Large sums of money are now able to move largely uncontrolled and untaxed around the globe in search of the highest possible return in the shortest possible time. This makes all currencies unstable, particularly those that have been left to float. It makes the financial positions of the smaller or developing countries uncertain and they spend so much of their meager resources trying to protect themselves that they never have the opportunity to get ahead.

Because this speculation is so rampant and so invisible, the possibility of attacks on a country's currency are very real; control of a country's economy by outside sources who usually have no interest in that country is relatively common; a country can suffer a financial crisis totally outside its ability to manage.
...
There are certainly some moral implications to all of this. Wealth that is earned through work is good and desirable; wealth that arises solely from gambling, as currency speculation surely is, is not. The powerful grip that currency trading and currency speculation exercises over global, regional, and national economies is an indication of how little importance is accorded to the fundamental question of social justice. Essentially, human greed has been institutionalized and legitimized.
..."

Sundeck: A brief overview of international currency speculation...worth a browse for anyone new to the idea.

http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2003/March-2003/dollar030303.htm
Snippit:

At the moment the US borrows about US$200 million a day from the rest of the world to cover its savings gap. This sum is bound to rise as a result of the current military expenditure budget and the rise will probably accelerate once the total obligations incurred by the US administration round the world are revealed. Why would anyone want to lend to a country whose debts are rising and whose currency is weakening? Already foreigners are reducing their holdings of dollars and dollar denominated debts and the trickle will become a flood as the true situation emerges. And this is where gold comes into its own. The story is told of the Afghanistan war lord who threw dollars back to the Americans and demanded gold before his troops would fight. Maybe the countries in the Middle East will stop accepting America's depreciating dollar IOUs and demand gold. What a turn-up that would be for a country who banks were in the forefront of the campaign waged over the past twenty or more years to stigmatise gold as a barbarous relic.

Black Blade: As the US dollar loses respect in the world dollar reserves are more likely to be replaced with something of value like precious metals.

http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=79257Snip:

"
The 60 per cent reduction in the duty on gold in this year's budget will practically wipe out smuggling of gold to India. This will also have a ripple effect in the form of a slow-down in hawala money to India.

A major part of the smuggling of gold from Dubai is being financed by hawala operators who, in turn, would need dirhams back in Dubai to continue smuggling.

Thus, the slowdown in smuggling could transfer to a corresponding slowdown of hawala. The 2003-2004 Indian budget presented on Friday by Finance Minister Jaswant Singh, along with other cuts in duties, cuts the import duty on gold from Rs250 to Rs100 per 10 grammes.

The Indian government through its earlier move to allow non-resident Indians to bring into India gold up to 10 kilos had already dealt a blow to the smugglers.

NRIs are allowed to bring in 10 kilos of gold as part of their baggage once in six months provided they have stayed abroad for a continuous six months.

According to Haji Abdul Razak Yaqoob, chairman of the ARY Group, the new move will bring an end to smuggling because the new duty structure will render smuggling non-rewarding.

"

Sundeck: Reduction in duty on gold, on balance, will probably lead to slightly lower prices to Indian consumers.

http://quote.yahoo.co.jp/q?s=8301.q&d=3mThe value of BOJ (Bank of Japan ) is rapidly devaluated at the stock market, and today�fs close price is 45,500 Yen/share.
Mikal

Option (a)? Absolutely Yes. I learned from this site that Japan is prohibited to buy gold. So it is very clear who gained very cheap gold from UK gold, Portuguese gold, and the lowest cheap bottom gold selled out from Barrick. The winner is FRB, who knows Barrick�fs bargain-sale very precisely.
D-Ani.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^XU100&d=c&t=5d&l=on&z=b&q=lLooks like Turkish investors were expecting the $30billion grants and loan guarantees to be approved. Istanbul market down 10%. You just can't trust those damn politicians.

Boilermaker

The yield of Japanese Government Bond is 0.77 percent at present, and this is the lowest level in the world history.
The direct undertake of Government Bond by the Central Bank (Bank of Japan ) is prohibited by the law in Japan. But Japanese commercial banks have very serious troubles. For examples, at the first stage, they have failed in the stock market at 1990s from 38900Yen to 8300Yen in Nikkei225. Then at the second stage, they have failed in the real estates market. And they have no-cut the rotten real estates, and further withdrawn cash from the loan customers.
At the third stage, they cannot find out the promising loan customers , they have desperately bought Japanese Government Bonds. So that the yield of Japanese Government Bond is 0.77 percent at present, and this is the lowest level in the world history. The yield of Japanese Government Bond cannot be lowered to the more lower level by any means in the near futures. At present, they cannot afford to a liquidity of money in the market, so that, BOJ starts to buy Japanese Government Bonds from the commercial banks. This is a kind of the direct undertake of Government Bond by the Central Bank, because at first any commercial banks bought the Government Bond, but they very quickly resale the Government Bond to the Central Bank. Consequently, the Government Bond bought by BOJ will be inevitably devaluated from the market, because the yield of 0.77 percent cannot be supported over two or three years by any means.
D-Ani.

Noble1--
I'm trying to understand your excellent post from yesterday...but what does NWO stand for?


Thanks!

try New World Order

Pizz

The support that existed at 350 has been successfully eroded.

test post

This question is asked on Mineset.com: "Why would anyone want to lend to a country whose debts are rising and whose currency is weakening?"

--Two reasons. One, it's still early. The debt could still be repaid. Two, if it isn't, then there is the collateral, even if it consists of little more than an increased ability to blackmail, or to exact some other kind of damage or abuse. To borrow is to place oneself in the hands of another.

'mineset.com' should read 'minesite.com'.

Even if you're sitting on the right track,
you'll still be run over if you don't move.

PoG has made a nice V-shaped comeback in the
last hour ... it's moving...alas, in an ever
more volatile way. cb2

Your quote: "In one of his most disastrous moves as President of the United States, Richard Nixon abandoned the "gold standard" and allowed the American dollar to float against everyone else's currency. Because of the huge value of American productivity, the U.S. dollar soon became the de facto standard against which everything else was measured. But it was a moving target. To what this has led is 30 or so years of currency speculation that has been a total disaster for all but the strongest players."

--Undoubtedly that was its purpose. The idea was probably sold to the administration, and others, by saying only good things about it, while omitting the negative points. Nixon's failure consisted of neglecting to obtain sufficient contrary views. This is one of the chief flaws of every authoritarian entity. They can only bear to hear certain things, or they tolerate on supportive types of behavior. And that requires that some other -true- things not become known to them. By now, surely, there ought to be significantly increasing numbers of individuals who recognize this, even though, perhaps, many of them may be unable to express it verbally. The next step will be that they _will_ be able to state their objections verbally, and in other ways too, and this will eventually develop into a growing resolution of the problem, at least on an individual basis.

Looks like my timing couldn't have been worse. That's often the case with me. Still, it hasn't bounced back above 350, though it does appear that buying may be starting to outweigh selling. (I am learning that making accurate predictions has more to do with choosing the right words, than with actually knowing what's going to happen. 'May be starting', for instance -as in 'may be starting to outweigh selling'- is less likely to be perceived as having been wrong than simply saying 'is' -as in 'buying is starting to outweigh selling'. Of course, really, the truth is that it is. But that doesn't mean that it will still be, after the next five minutes. Live and learn. Well, live anyway.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030302/minerals_royalgold_barrons_1.htmlLooks like Barron's is front running the cartel (big weekend for trashing gold in the 'media', see above link, plus http://www.nypost.com/business/69685.htm ) in thier mashing of RGLD, funny you don't see P/E comparisons of the 'Daq sweethearts. If Au bullishness is directly related to the # of stories explaining how and why it's going nowhere and that the bugs are crazy, we're about to enter the second leg...............

Last night at 03/02/03 23:50:59 # 98756, Noble1 contributed his opinion on the current world situation and how it might affect Gold and the U.S. Dollar.

Perhaps some folks at this forum haven't read it as yet.

I found it to be as clear, focused and to the point.

I strongly recommend you read it if you haven't done so.

Now on to the codes in the message of Noble1.

Pizz has already explained to contrarian that NWO stands for New World Order.

I understood all of the other codes used by Noble1 except for SOL.

If anyone knows what SOL stands for, I would appreciate an answer on it.

To Noble1: Of course you know the answer :-) so if the answer isn't posted before you read this post please let us know. Thank you.

By the way, I also want to thank you for making it so very clear to me exactly what a war with Iraq would mean short term for the U.S. Dollar.

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**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)

**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)

**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)

**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)

**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)

**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)


2/28/03 GC3J HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 Yesterday's OI = 107,869

Sir Kevin$ is now "King of the Hill" !!!!

"SOL" is slang shorthand for ( xxx out of luck ) --- Where the xxx is the word standing for human execration ! Some people have the tendency to use the lower level of the English language went communication to emphasize the point!
<;-(

"went communication" should have been "when communicating" !!!

http://www.mips1.net/422567D90030EAB4/0/95898628D1EF5423C2256CDE003F7E5A?OpenDocument
It would nice to finally ringfence these desperados.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex&box=ad_box_all&tag=worldnews∣dle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APmKcOxVHSXJhcWkgSnip:
"Hanifa Ali pushes open the door to Talal's goldsmith shop across the street from the Al Kadhimain Mosque in northwestern Baghdad. ``Do you buy gold?'' she asks. ``I have a few items I'd like you to see.''Hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of gold change hands each month in more than 150 shops around the mosque, traders estimate. Iraqis, like investors in Europe, Asia or the U.S., are seeking the stability provided by gold as their country's economy declines and the threat of war mounts. Traders say there's been an increase in business over the past two months. Prices have risen in recent months. Traders monitor the spot gold market and set their prices accordingly. In New York, the price of gold has gained 20 percent in the past year to $351.53 an ounce. In Baghdad, the same quantity, about 31 grams, sells for $310. ``Gold is a refuge these days,'' says Talal. ``Prices have risen because the global economy isn't performing very well and it provides better safety for everyone.''

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call USAGOLD - Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115

2/28/03 GC3J HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 Yesterday's OI = 107,869
3/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 Yesterday's OI = 105,993

AND for the SECOND Day in a row ... Sir Kevin$ is AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!!!

===
NEAREST Prognostications to COMEX GC3J Settlement

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)

===
<;-)

I'm writing this confession reclining on the deck of my yacht "The Merchant of Death" (I call her the MOD for short) sipping a nice 1990 Chateau Montrose. The sun is shining, the salty air smells sweet, and it's a good day to be rich. Since I filled up most of the lower decks with recently purchased 2000 Bordeaux and moved the arms shipments to the upper decks to be ready for quick delivery, the ship has been a little top heavy. Needing ballast that didn't take up too much space, and Portugal was on my way, I bought their 30 tonnes of gold. The story gets interesting from here. Portugal said that they had the gold and that I could take delivery. After mooring the MOD in Lisbon harbor I arranged for 10 armored cars to deliver the gold, in six round trips of half a ton each. I was alarmed to be told by the Bank of Portugal that they didn't really have the gold. They have clear title and it's definitely theirs and I can definitely have it but it's stored in a warehouse in London. They said they were very sorry but no one ever actually tries to take delivery on sales like this. This was a first for them, or since my Portuguese isn't too good maybe they said "This was the end for them". After dozens of telephone calls, I was assured that the gold would be available if I came to England and presented the proper purchase documents to the warehouse. I had the steward pick up a couple of cases of 1948 Graham's and headed for Dover.
It was quite a frustrating time in England and the Port was needed to quell my anger when it turned out that the London warehouse did not in fact have the gold. My first mate and gunner had to visit the warehouse and present the documents since I was ordered a long time ago not to set foot in Great Britain again. The story was the same, ask them if they have the gold and they assure me that they do. They can show a few bars, but nobody has ever actually taken the gold. They just give a receipt and the buyers are content with the warehouse safely storing their gold for them. Since I did have clear title to the 30 tons and I needed it for a valid purpose, they suggested that I sail to South Africa and pick it up directly from the mine that definitely has it. Durban is on my way to Yemen to deliver the arms, since the MOD is unwelcome in the Suez due to the unfortunate incident with the anti-aircraft gun. Fortunately, the plane landed safely and no one was killed, or I'd be rotting in a jail in Cairo now. The flame-broiled goose was a bit overcooked that evening.
I am not looking forward to the rough seas around the cape with the ship top heavy as she is and with the lifeboats full of Stingers and land mines. The South African mine has assured me that they have not committed "all" of their production to forward sales and I will definitely be able to pick up the gold, but I'm not sure I trust the new management. I really didn't understand their question of whether I'd be willing to take half white gold and half black gold. The way it's going I figure I'll just pick up 30 tons of rhodium instead, and ask for a refund in Euros on the gold. If they tell me that there is 30 tons of dental scrap in Switzerland, I'll just have to pass since there are no ports in Switzerland and besides I would be arrested.

Be it known that the REAL purchaser of the 30 Tonnes of Portugal Gold has contacted the Hobbits and suggested that he really wishes to enter the POG CONTEST but not "confess" that he is the ONE ! SOOOOOO, after consultation with the USAGOLD Castle, the Rules have now been MODIFIED to allow anyone (like Sir Kahulik's Entry) to submit a POG entry with just a STATEMENT of "Why" they choose that POG Price ! OF COURSE, then they are not eligible to win the prizes of the ESSAY Contest segment !
<;-)

Confessions ARE good for your soul !
You "MADE my DAY" !!
Happy SAILING !
<;-)

Has anyone else noticed the increased amount of coin shows on the shop at home channels.The ridiculous prices are only exceeded by the shysters who host the shows.

Stands for S#@*(&%T OUTTA LUCK

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. I've noticed that USAGOLD / Centennial stresses education more than most of your competitors. Why is that?

MK. For years, we have emphasized "We educate first-time investors" in our advertising. We believe education to be the key to successful gold ownership. To make a long story short, we tend to keep our clientele as they become better educated, while many of our competitors tend to lose their clientele once they become educated. It shows in the type of services we consider important to complement our sales and delivery programs.

Randy interjects... Mike is way too nice to say this bluntly so I will. What I've noticed about the apparent rationale behind some of those other firms' operating philosophy is that, if they bend the client over far enough for their wallet the first time they ever do business together, they really don't have to care about getting repeat business. There is fresh meat walking in the door every day. It doesn't have to be that way, but some people simply don't take the time to shop around for a quality firm. They should.

Q. What are some of the criteria a prospective investor should look for in a gold firm?

MK. Credibility, longevity, pricing, service and compatibility -- all come into the mix. Of those I rate credibility and its sister virtues -- reliability and reputability -- the most important. Too many of the national firms have brokers who were selling condos at the beach or automobiles a month ago and now suddenly they've become "gold experts" selling leverage schemes, $50,000 rare coins, reproduction medallions at 25 times their gold content, or overpriced silver investments. Most sophisticated gold investors would probably like to avoid that sort of thing.

Sorry, Gandalf already answered that one

We just get some amazing people around here. I knew you were one of them. Thanks!

These mining stocks are making me cry.Physical man how about some advice on buying sterling silver from garage sales and the like.thnx 21

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Military sources say as many as four North Korean MiGs intercepted a U.S. reconnaissance plane over international waters during the weekend, MSNBC reported Monday.

According to the sources, the MiGs came within 500 feet of the U.S. RC-135 plane but didn't act aggressively, MSNBC said.

The network said the incident - the first such intercept since 1969 - happened in international air space over the Korean peninsula.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlShort Snip:
"Gold finished a volatile trading session on Monday as some weak speculators left the market on a presumption that war may be avoided since Iraq destroyed some illegal missiles. Meanwhile the USS Nimitz left San Diego for the Middle East this morning and troops at Fort Hood prepared for deployment in the Middle East...The economic data this morning was a mixed bag though the ISM data suggests that the U.S. economy is slipping significantly. After the gold pits closed the U.S. equities markets and the U.S. dollar weakened. In short the geopolitical situation is very clouded and war in Iraq appears inevitable while the global economy cracks under the strain of rising energy prices and weak consumer support. The fundamental case for precious metals remains very strong as production is reported to be falling off while physical demand remains high."

Wow,royalgold must have been embarrassing someone or starting to get attention.We shouldnt be surprised by these desperate attempts after all the next string of bankrupcies on wall st should be here soon.This is an act of fear by the cabal,it tells me the second leg is about to begin.We shouldnt be surprised that many, recognizing the gold market is fixed decide to opt out of the game.Nothing in the economy is improving,and high energy will wreck the best laid plans of the cabal.If people want to believe all is well,and things will soon return to normal let them.We have to realize the cabal has nothing to lose,their game is falling apart and a whole generation of investors will never be back to these markets due to this very manipulation.People may not buy gold but they sure as hell wont buy down jones or nasdog either.THE MANIPULATION REEKS TO THE HIGH HEAVENS,as such the average joe no longer trusts wall st with their money.

one must ask themselves these questions:

Do you beleive there will never be any terrorism again?
Do you beleive there will never be war again?
Do you beleive the usd will rise in the face of all odds?
Is the down jones and nasdog trend up or is it down?
Is high energy prices a good thing?
Is there no inflation?
Will the rest of the world gladly hold the usd(declining assets) and pay for the u.s folly and war?
When the u.s attacks will the world stand by mutely and have no response?
Do you enjoy being service charged to death?
Will the japanese buy gold when all deposit insurance in a bankrupt banking system is lifted?
Can the central banks sell gold forever?

If you said yes to all these then owning gold makes no sense to you.I see this as a last gasp desperate attempt by a dying cabal.If gold wasnt going up would they really go to all this trouble?They say its always darkest before the dawn.I think after reading this site we should have expected this.When a man is dying he often gives one last final "death blow" before his life passes away.In my opinion we just saw it,they know usa is going into iraq.They also know gold will spike again when they do,the good news is with all the weak hands exiting,there may be no correction(big) as they had hoped.Hang in there if you can,
the second leg is coming and they know it.Everything comes to he who waits.They are running out of time,not us.

A maxime or doctrine falsely attributed to the Society of Jesus, commonly known as the Jesuits may have been adopted by the PTB. As the Price of Gold did not budge much more as to the lower 340's several times now, a concerted effort or media salvo was fired to bring the PM Compound down.

The latest was a barbarous Barrons article to defile the spirited efforts of Royal Gold, an accumulator of gold royalties and excellent prospects. A company, which appreciated 600% over the last 2 years. I'd be wondering what the response of the CEO, Stan Dempsey of Denver may be as the Barrons "analysis" shaved 33% of the co's value in one day. Stan, being a geologist, landman and a lawyer from Washington D.C. may have some real answers up his sleeve.

Though, all of that may be beside the point. It just proves the utter desperation of the "anti gold cartel", which now seem to have pulled all the stops to no real avail. The gold leased, forwarded and sold in order to artificially depress the PoG is gone and can't ever be replenished by any more clever accounting gimmicks.

Buy the dips, when the PTB is offering real value for almost free and say thank you for the precious gift - cb2

... and BTW - Barrons have almost always been right on the dot in calling reversals of the trend - to their chagrin, though!

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

Thanks to everyone who responded to my question.

I decided to bring only a portion of my collection on the plane. I put 4 rolls of european bullion coins (roosters & such) and 1 roll of silver eagles in my backpack.

I went through security with no problem although they removed the rolls from the backpack and ran them through the screening apparatus again.

Unfortunately, I'm in a position of needing to liquidate some of my stash. While this is obviously undesirable - on the bright side I'm learning quite a bit about the buy side of things with various dealers.

The USD threatens to go sub 99 while Gold is up in after hours back to where it finished on Friday in NY. The dollar is under pressure as oil and NatGas rebound in after market trading.

Royal Gold article in Barron's was often cited throughout the day in the media (especially CNBC) and that added a bit of negative sentiment to the sector during the trading session. However, the real story is not a particular gold stock, war in the ME, or any other market "dog and pony show" - but the weak US dollar and floundering equities market as the gloabl economy goes into a death spiral on the back of high energy costs amid shrinking supply. Without "cheap energy" there is no economy - nada - none!

I find it amusing that the financial media trots out obscure analysts that no one ever heard of with no solid background to exclaim how there's more oil and NatGas in the world than anyone knows what to do with and that no one wants to buy precious metals. Who are these people and where did they come from? No one seems to know as the old familiar names seem to have disappeared. They also do not know what they are talking about. I for one have a more extensive background in the industry than these stock market touts and yes, there is a real shortage of "cheap" hydrocarbon potential and storage. There is declining production of precious metals even though there is strong physical demand that far outstrips current production. Central bank sales do not go into the open market but are generally logged into the ledger books of other central banks. You won't hear this story from the financial media infomercials and their phoney guests.

"Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

http://www.clifdroke.com/gold/g030303.mgiI must admit that I am in two minds about Mr. Droke. As far as his analysis is concerned, I would have to admit that he has made some good calls in the past (and not always to the upside). However, I just don't understand the whys and wherefores of exactly how he places his parabolae. Does anyone else have any thoughts ?

You write: "Everything comes to he who waits."

I have yet to be entirely convinced that patience is a virtue. However, in the case of holding on to our gold, indeed obtaining more of same, will be profitable.

Enjoyed your post.

http://www.cfo.com/printarticle/0,5317,8894|,00.htmlWorst credit climate since the depression, says Moody's. Plus: look who's cozying up to analysts.

Snippit:

Turns out that fewer corporate issuers defaulted on rated bonds in 2002, according to Moody's Investors Service's annual study of global defaults and ratings performance. All things considered -- a neat trick -- that would seem like a sign that corporate health is on the improve. But ominously, Moody's says the total dollar volume of defaulted debt last year soared to over $163 billion. That's a 60 percent jump from the $106 billion in the dollar volume of defaults in 2001. "The duration and depth of the current credit cycle has eclipsed that of the 1990-91 period and, in fact, has not been matched since the 1930s," said David T. Hamilton, Moody's director of corporate bond default research.

Black Blade: Looks ugly. The "New Great Depression" looms over the horizon.

Off to the gym!

Re: C. Droke "bowls"
His unique method is based on precise points on graph paper. Daily retrieved from the series of swipes and leaps of his chained feline, Fortuna as she reacts to "the people's stock picking channel". Happily, each play-by-play on the graph paper forms a reliable "message" that Droke translates into his "bowls"!

http://www.fortune.com/fortune/investing/articles/0,15114,427751,00.htmlSays the Sage of Omaha, Warren Buffet in a Fortune article, thanks to friendly neighbors of the castle.

If this is so, Mr. John Snow should declare war on the 26 Trillion derivative position, a real neutron bomb of systemic financial destruction - amassed by JPM/Chase. The same JPM, which became again (in)famous with its deals with a group called Enron, providing some tax, accounting and other Mahonia Bush shelters?
Real nice guys, and by looking at their history you'll be really surprised by finding these guys may have been pertinent to embezzle the US to join WWI (and II?), as well as financing the Russian October Revolution. At least according to E. Griffin, who's Creature of Jekyll Island is a must read. ... (I have to admit reading the book some 10 years ago and had a hard time believing the script - now with a 20/20 afterthought and rereading the recently edited edition it becomes tough to reject its premises and postulations).

The only shelter for your ultimate wealth from W(F)MD's is only a 0800 # away - go Gold and Centennial - cb2, says he's been treated exceptionally fair by these guys.

I hope you win the contest; your satire was really out of this world. great work.

Gold +1.80
Silver +0.02
Now approaching what used to be refered to as The Far East.

http://www.news.com.auAssassins in Iraq
March 01, 2003 -Excerpts:
"US military special forces have been inside Iraq for months and aim to capture or kill Iraqi President Saddam Hussein within three hours of an assault on Baghdad.
Undercover US agents, CIA operatives and special forces teams are already in place in and around the Iraqi capital, according to highly placed diplomatic sources.....
In the past fortnight Saddam has:
* ORDERED members of his depleted and demoralised air force to form a "kamikaze" suicide unit which will pilot Iraqi fighter jets September-11-style into enemy targets;
* ADDED two new units to his forces - the Fidayee Saddam Army and the Special Protection Army. They join the regular army, the Republican Guard, the Special Republican Guard and the Alquds Liberation Army, ;
* SENT senior officers of his Special Republican Guard to monitor the regular army for any sign of revolt;
* ORDERED the arrest of key officers in the air force suspected of treachery. They have been sent to the notorious Abu Graib Prison in Baghdad. Three air force officers - two captains and a lieutenant - who refused to join the kamikaze units were shot last week during the traditional Al Adha feast;
* ESTABLISHED a bio-chemical weapons training base at Al Naserieya, in southern Iraq for use as a last resort against coalition troops; and
* DRAWN up plans for a scorched earth policy involving the destruction of dams, bridges and oil wells.
Much of the insight into Saddam's plans comes from a former senior officer in an elite Iraqi Army unit who led an uprising against Saddam during the last Gulf War, Captain William Warda, who was granted political asylum in Australia by UN edict.
Speaking yesterday, Captain Warda, who is now a senior official in the Iraqi Military Council, said the council was using a complex web of agents inside Saddam's regime to monitor the dictator and his military plans.
"We have received this information from agents still inside Iraq and others who have escaped through Jordan," he told The Daily Telegraph.
Mr Warda said agents had also told the council Saddam had sent spies to the US and her allies - including Australia - on terrorist missions.
Saddam is so distrustful of his regular army he has starved it of resources, supplying only minimal stores of ammunition, fuel and food.
Communication lines are also stretched, rendering regular army units incapable of attack and able to offer only limited opposition.
Saddam has created a Special Protection Army to protect him from assassination. It is made up of his closest allies, including relatives, tribal loyalists from his birthplace of Tikrit and criminals who face jail should Saddam be toppled. Numbering several hundred, this unit will fight to the death.....
Daily Telegraph military specialist Aldo Borgu said whether Iraqi troops would surrender within days of a US-led attack would depend on a number of issues including how well Saddam holds up and how effective the US is in separating the conscript forces from their commanders.
Unlike America's opponents in Afghanistan, the Taliban and al-Qaeda, elements of the Iraqi army are regarded as testing opponents.
"The people in the Special Republican Guard have been drawn from (Saddam's) own village. The people have ties to him by tribe and clan and a lot to lose if he is overthrown," Mr Borgu said."

I read recently that O'Neil joined the board of Kodak. Former treasury secretrary joins board of the largest silver user in the world. This got filed in my mind as "interesting". This morning I put 2 and 2 together and realized that Kodak must have a stock pile of silver. If I were a suspicious type person, I might think that O'Neil was being sent there to mobilize that silver "for the good of the strong dollar policy".

I bought the 30 tonnes because I had an offer I couldn't refuse. I've made a down payment and expect to receive my bonanza in due time. 30 tonnes is a lot, and I really don't need it all, so perhaps I can interest some of you in the deal of a lifetime.

You see, I recently received an email from the Colonel-In-Charge of Ports and Calls of the Nigerian Consulate in the Ivory Coast. He had a secret to share, and since it was so important, he could only share it with someone with an outstanding reputation of honesty and integrity. Me, of course.

According to the colonel, 30 tonnes of Portuguese gold were sold to an American outfit named PIZZ, the Pacific Institute of Zany ZPA's, and shipped out of Lisbon on a small Portuguese freighter bound for New York. Just over the horizon the ship rendezvoused with another small freighter, one of Nigerian registry. The gold was quickly transfered to the African ship and replaced with lead bars coated with a fine coat of low-grade gold. The fake bars then resumed transit to the USA and PIZZ.

The real gold was then shipped to Nigeria where it was secretly off-loaded and trucked to the colonel's farm. There it was buried in 15 holes, two tonnes for each hole. The colonel's plan was to dig up the gold hole by hole and sell it through unofficial channels in Africa, namely to a secretive but well known bunch of dopey, thieving marketeers, jokingly referred to behind their backs as the Inbred M..... F.....s - (IMF, for short).

However, everything has fallen apart and come to a halt due to lack of funds. More expensive than he thought. Too many unexpected people to bribe and a little extortion too, I suppose. Of course, the colonel cannot reveal to any more of his friends that he masterminded the whole thing for fear he would be found out by officialdom and shot. So he had to go outside the country for funds to operate, which, naturally, led him to me.

For my help, he graciously offered me all 15 holes, though he knew I would understand if he held a few back for himself. Understandable. All I had to do was send him cash for the gold at roughly one-quarter of spot, which included his expenses, by the way. He would then mark the gold up to close to spot and sell it to the not-too-bright and greedy IMF. The difference plus some of my down payment he would send to me... more than a double. What a deal, right? What a concept. Unfortunately for me, according to the colonel, the funds I have already sent were somehow mistakenly marked, which led to their confiscation by the local sharp-eyed Bureau of Incoming Shipments - (BIS, for short). Bummer, since I have to send the same funds again. I'll sure be more careful this time, for sure. Hey, these things happen. That's how you learn.

Anyway, I sure don't need 10 holes worth, maybe one or two, so I thought I would share my good fortune with the forum here and cut in as many of you as are interested in this deal of a lifetime. All you have to do is let me know how many holes you would like, and I'll cut you a big break. Come to think about it, I better wire the PIZZ outfit to let them know they've been scammed with those gold covered lead bars and to let them have first dibs on this can't lose deal.

would/ do governments misrepresent the total amount of minerals mined ? can they do that? is it possible? is it what mexico is doing ? just saying opppss silver production is down while all the time building a strategic stockpile with the supposed loss in production silver?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmsnippet:

As a financial barometer of future storms, that barometer is now flashing a major warning sign, telling me a major storm is approaching. The combination of financial and corporate debt, consumer debt, and government debt is now running at rates over $2 trillion a year.

It is now taking $4.8 dollars of debt to produce $1 in GDP. The government deficit is now running at an annual rate of $300 billion and will get larger in the months ahead because of war and another dip into recession. In fact, at the rate of which debt is being accumulated, it looks like we are surely headed for another depression.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=sThe dollar is the world's currency.

Gold (when free of manipulation) is the yardstick of the world's faith in the quality of its currency.

The dollar index is the gauge of the relative value of the dollar to that of other major currencies (which must undergo continual debasement to grease the wheels of politics in their respective countries of origin).

The dollar index today has fallen nigh 1% and bids seriously tonight to test 99 on the downside.

Whither then strives the price of gold? Logic answers�

Will the real buyer of the Portugal gold please stand up!

Contestant #1
my name is jpmo

Contestant #2
My Name Is Jpmo

Contestant #3
MY NAME IS JPMO

Question to contestant #1--What did you use to pay for this gold?
Answer: I electronically and digitally transferred the tidy sum of $XXXX million US dollars into the coffers of the Central Bank of Portugal. I'm sure they're more than satisfied to have this fiat currency as part of their reserves rather than that barbarous relic. I'm sure they're aware of our strong dollar policy and the ever increasing value of the USD. Just think of the value of the USD since 1971 when Nixon removed all gold convertibility. Oh, yes, I paid a fortune for this gold.

Same question to contestant #2.
Answer: Thank you for asking me this question. I didn't exactly pay for this gold. I swapped for it. Somehow it made sense for me to swap the gold that I have buried for the gold they have buried because I am not allowed to sell or lease my gold. But, now that I have their gold, and they have my gold, I can sell or lease it as I please.

Interesting!Well Mr. #3 can we now have your response?
Answer: These Bozos #1 and #2 don't know what their talking about. Those kind of payments work but they cost too much. I bought the 30 tons and paid for it with this here paper contract. What it says is that I really don't ever have to pay anything for it. Because I have this here other paper contract from this here mining co. that says they will replace the gold should I ever ask for it. Of course, the gold is in deep deep storage and it may take 15yrs. from the time I ask for it till the time I get it. And this here mining co. may or may not still be in business. And I also have the choice of giving the BofP those ever valuable USDs.
Meanwhile, the physical gold is mine to do with what I please. Oops, did I say that? Of course I was only trying to help the BofP by taking this nonperforming asset off their hands. As I have no use for this stuff.

Alright judges, let's have your vote. Is it C#1, C#2, or C#3?

Remember: The more you research gold, the more you come to understand it's historic intrinsic value.

A high school junior called my attention to the following in a textbook currently being used in a local high school and it pretty much says it all. I was asked to explain what this was all about.
Did I have fun!!!!!!
I hope this generates some lively discussion; it's like researching the Family Tree. Might be interesting if someone has time, to do a timeline of all significant events around gold.

"Gold Bugs In 1873 supporters of tight money won a victory. Until that time, United States currency had been on a bimetallic standard. That is, currency consisted of gold or silver coins or United States treasury notes that could be traded in for gold or silver. In 1873, in order to prevent inflation and ensure economic stability, Congress put the nation's currency on the gold standard. This move reduced the amount of money in circulation because the money supply would be limited by the amount of gold held by the government.

Conservative "gold bugs" were pleased. Many of them were big lenders, and they liked the idea of being repaid in currency backed by the gold standard.

Silverites - "Silverites," mostly silver-mining interests and western farmers, were furious at the nation's move to a gold standard. They claimed that the end of silver as a monetary standard would depress the prices of farm produce. Silverites called instead for free silver-- the unlimited coining of silver dollars as a means of increasing the money supply.

The Bland-Allison Act of 1878, was for the silverites, a step in the right direction. This act required the federal government to purchase and coin more silver, increasing the money supply and causing inflation.
Passed by congress, the Bland-Allison Act was vetoed by President Hayes because he opposed the inflation it would create. Congress then overrode Haye's veto. Yet the act had only a limited effect because the Treasury Department refused to buy more than the minimum silver required under the act. The Treasury also refused to circulate the silver dollars that the law required it to mint.

In 1890, Congress passed the Sherman Silver Purchase Act. While not authorizing the free and unlimited coinage of silver that the Silverites wanted, it did increase the amount of silver the government was required to purchase every month. The law required the Treasury to buy the silver with notes that could be redeemed for either silver or gold. Yet as people turned in their silver Treasury notes for gold dollars, the gold reserves of the government began to be depleted. To protect the nation's gold supply, President Cleveland oversaw the repeal of the Silver Purchase Act in 1893."

American Pathways to the Present - Prentice Hall

Your concern: "question would/ do governments misrepresent the total amount of minerals mined ? can they do that? is it possible? is it what mexico is doing ? just saying opppss silver production is down while all the time building a strategic stockpile with the supposed loss in production silver?"

--Is it possible to misrepresent the amount of minerals mined? Absolutely. Can they do that? Sure. But look. The truth is worse than that. Anyone who has worked for a government knows -or should know- that not only are figures lied about as a matter of course, but, what's worse, they can't get representative figures to begin with, in most cases. The numbers of cars sold they can probably know pretty closely. But information that has to come up from the grassroots through a bureaucracy, never. Those in charge of collating the data routinely have strong motives not to pass on true information, or in cases where they would like to, they mess them up or figure them incorrectly, most of the time. More often than not, managers even filter out applicants for managerial positions if they are known to be unwilling to alter data when desired. There are occasional instances where an employee -or groups of employees- will handle data proficiently. But these are the exception. Further, the heads of agencies typically don't want true data; often they prefer data that makes them look good, when this is possible, and it often is possible. A lot of different types of data have this vulnerability. Middle managers, and managers in top positions often feel threatened if certain kinds of data are too accurate, or too clear, even if their work is not reflected in it. Additionally, most managers have little or no understanding of how data should be collected, or how it should be interpreted or used. The really bad thing is that government managers most often do not know what type of information to collect, in order to derive the knowledge which they think they want to acquire, or even know what it actually is that they are wanting to find out, usually choosing to collect some other type of data that is more impressive, though less relevant. Only a few government are schooled in bureaucratic principles. Most have degrees in such things as art and music, literature, or athletics. While these things a perfectly wonderful -and I meant that- they don't prepare workers for bureaucracies. China did better four thousand years ago, and kept it up until comparatively recently. And many private companies also do not report accurate information, when required to by the government, but some of them habitually throw together whatever figures they think won't get them into trouble. The US government can't even accurately count the number of people in a cozy place like New Iberia, Louisiana, population 750 more or less. How do you think they are going to keep track of every ounce of gold or silver that is taken out of the insides of our entire planet? Impossible. (I suppose I should state here that I always correctly report all of my income, as required by law, and pay every last cent of taxes due.)

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Plotting A Dangerous Course

Snippit:

The financial media buries the story. Wall Street seldom talks about it. Fed officials and economists see it as a positive development. I'm talking about the trade deficit, which is spiraling out of control. The US is now borrowing close to $10 billion a week from overseas investors to pay for consumption. Our current trade deficit is now 5% of GDP. A good majority of this trade deficit is with China. China is now a major holder of US debt. The trade imbalances and investment balances with China are now running close to $150 billion per year.

Black Blade: What does China do with all these dollars? $150 billion is a five fold increase from the latest data I have from BCA Research showing a trade surplus of over $30 billion a year. At that rate annual investment in fixed assets has grown at an average of more than 20% a year since the mid-1990s. It is well known that Japan is losing market share to China at a exponential rate and therefore Japan is desperately selling its worthless currency in the ultimate "currency war" leading to destruction of its currency. For Japan it's a vicious cycle of currency destruction amid a failed banking system that simply exists only as a front. As for China the rising influx of US dollars creates a problem � especially as the US currency weakens and the Yuan is pegged to the dollar. It is no wonder then that a lot of these loose depreciating US dollars are used to purchase gold and increase the central banks gold reserves. Not long ago the World Gold Council assisted the Chinese central bank in determining a larger position in gold reserves as necessary for diversification away for an over abundance of dollars. As the flood of weaker US dollars stack up in the central bank's coffers it stands to reason that more and more precious metal must find its way to displace what is become a major liability rather than an asset. Where exactly do you think the Swiss gold and Portuguese gold has gone? Certainly not into the open market as physical supply remains tight. It is rumored that much of this gold as well as some South African mine production is going straight into the Chinese central bank. It is one way to disgorge the flood of US dollars for something of value.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/030304/80/dumn2.htmlMost IMF directors endorsed the Bank of England's decision to lower interest rates in February. But the IMF said monetary policy must now balance supporting domestic demand against the risk of a housing bubble.

"It was agreed that, going forward, the authorities should stand ready to respond swiftly to the changing balance of risks," the IMF said.

Britain's latest real estate boom spurred a 25 percent surge in house prices in 2002. That left house prices rising above trend as a ratio of household earnings. Still, the substantial decline in interest rates has kept consumer debt service ratios much lower than in the late 1980s and the early 1990s, when Britain's housing market crashed.

Nevertheless, there are early signs that the British housing market could be in for a rough landing, if not an outright crash. One recent report from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors showed London house prices falling at their fastest pace in nine years. London real estate prices typically act as a leading indicator of British home prices.

And Britons have been loading up on credit card and other debts too. British consumer borrowing has surged so much in recent years that many pundits have predicted that rising debt levels could lead to a destabilizing crash.
__________
Sounds a lot like the US housing bubble.
-----------
Barron's article on Royal Gold is incredible. The guy making
the valuation call was SHORT the stock. Why does Barron's even
care about Gold equities? The entire gold sector has a market
cap of less than one big tech corporation.

Please allow me to introduce myself,i'm a man of wealth and fame. Of course it was me who picked up another 30 tonnes of gold. How ironic from the same to whom i led to new lands where so much of the precious was recovered. Now that gives me the edge on all CB's at 16,530 tonnes. How easy it was to play this game in the last several years from those who sold me their most precious possesion for an improved station in life. Now with less than i it will spiral downward and my minions shall ride in to save the day, but only to those with the "mark" of cooperation. Pleased to meet you, won't you guess my name?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2003/03/04/cnbuff04.xml&sSheet=/money/2003/03/04/ixcity.html
Apocalypse is nigh, Buffett tells Berkshire faithful
By Simon English in New York� Filed: 04/03/2003 -Excerpt:
"Warren Buffett is poised to issue his most doom-laden forecast for the state of the world economy yet, including a damning verdict on the derivatives industry he fears could cause a global financial crisis.
In the upcoming annual letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Mr Buffett drops his usual folksy style to warn that banks do not understand the hidden risks lurking on their balance sheets.
He labels derivatives "time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system" and "financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal".
The views of the world's second richest man are closely watched and his apocalyptic vision will do little to steady nerves on Wall Street or in the City of London. Extracts from his annual letter, to be delivered on Saturday but posted on Fortune.com yesterday, reveal that he has little optimism for the stock market.
"Despite three years of falling prices which have significantly improved the attractiveness of common stocks, we still find very few that even mildly interest us. That dismal fact is testimony to the insanity of the valuations reached during the Great Bubble. Unfortunately, the hangover may prove to be proportional to the binge," he writes.
Until now vague warnings about the pyramid nature of derivatives contracts have led to bland assurance from banks that there is no threat to their stability.
Mr Buffett says the banks simply have no idea what their exposure could be. "When Charlie [Munger, his business partner] and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don't understand how much risk the institution is taking."
Derivatives are often complex financial instruments that allow investors to take bets on anything from share prices to the weather. Their range is limited, says Mr Buffett, "only by the imagination of man, or sometimes, so it seems, madmen". Enron was especially fond of derivatives, offering contracts that would be settled years in the future and claiming profits immediately..."

http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2003030300062x7418&SA=Latest%20News
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Mar 04, 2003 (The Christian Science Monitor via COMTEX) � Twelve months of rising energy prices are starting to threaten the US economy. A spike in oil prices has almost doubled the price of a commodity that literally fuels much of the economy. Combined with an even sharper increase in the cost of natural gas, the hike is siphoning cash from consumers and businesses at a time when the US economy is frozen in place. The extra energy bill - impacting everyone from commuters to airlines and factories - could amount to as much as $100 billion on an annualized basis. Economists say it's enough to shave 1 full percentage point off economic growth. And, if prices stay at this level or rise further, the risk of another recession is very real. In fact, rising fuel costs helped to cause or deepen the past four recessions: the mid-1970s, early 1980s, 1990-91, and 2000. The higher prices are showing up almost everywhere - from the rising cost of heating an apartment in Boston to the amount of money it takes to ship a head of lettuce from Mexico to Chicago. Airlines and semi-operators are tacking on fuel surcharges. And, last week, some heavy-industrial businesses said they would pare back their output until prices evened out while others warned Congress that the nation could expect higher prices for products ranging from fertilizer to bathroom fixtures.

Black Blade: Risk of slipping into a recession is no concern as we are currently in one. There will be no economic recovery this year or next. Any economic growth will increase demand on energy, and energy supply remains tight with no relief in sight. Scratch any hope of "economic recovery" this year, in "the second half", or even next year.

http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=NR200303041180.3_6239000c1b46b099

Snippit:

Energy experts predicted heating prices would go up this winter, mostly because temperatures were expected to be lower than they were last year. But the weather has been colder than expected and reserves have been depleted, which could cause high prices to resurface next winter. "It's the perfect storm," said Aubrey Hilliard, president and chief executive officer of Horizon Energy, a Charlotte-based energy brokerage. "You've got Iraq, Venezuela, no drilling, and the real killer right now is the weather." No one expects shortages of natural gas this winter, but a report by Horizon Weather and Energy Ventures Group, two Colorado companies, states that the "storage supply will drop perilously low during the remaining six weeks of the winter heating season. "Energy providers will not be able to replenish the reserves at normal levels to face the winter of 2004. This will result in a continued upward spiral in prices." Bill O'Grady, a natural-gas analyst for A.G. Edwards in St. Louis, said "This is a crisis and it's very severe. ... It isn't going away in a couple of months." O'Grady said additional supply would alleviate the problem, but little new drilling is being done in the United States. Gas companies won't search for new gas supplies until they can be assured a higher return, he said.

Black Blade: Next winter will be quite "interesting", especially if this summer is normal or warmer than normal.

physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824)
"Pleased to meet you, won't you guess my name?"
====
Nice to FINALLY meet you too, Christopher !
<;-)

Listing UP-DATED as of MONDAY, 3/3/03, 21:40 Denver Time !

NOTE to CONTEST entrants -- Please check to see if your "Prognostication" number has been taken in any newly entered guess, AFTER the above posting time, just before you submit yours, so that there are not any duplications ! Tkanks <;-)

**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)

**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)

**** $392.5 **** physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824)

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (02/28/03; 06:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98581)
**** $385.4 **** slingshot (02/27/03; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98555)

**** $381.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (02/27/03; 10:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98525

**** $378.0 **** Mountain Top (02/27/03; 17:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98543)

**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)

**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)

**** $372.7 **** Noble1 (03/03/03; 20:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98819)

**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)

**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)

**** $360.8 **** VanRip (03/03/03; 19:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98814)

**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)

**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $344.0 **** monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787)

**** $340.0 **** kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)

Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J
2/28/03 HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 Yesterday's OI = 107,869
3/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 Yesterday's OI = 105,993

For the SECOND Day in a row, Sir Kevin$ is AGAIN "King of the Hill"

That UP-DATE should have said time of 23:40 Denver Time !
<;-(

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!b50!g10!e5!a!h.02,.20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lo14!Lv25!Lw25!Lr14]Looks to be only a SHORT TIME until "BLASTOFF" time again !
<;-)

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlTHE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a "Discussion Statement" !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) APRIL 2003 Gold Contract (GC3J) on the date of Thursday, the 13th of March, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Tuesday, March 11th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY to accompany the Price prognostication,--- EITHER --

A Statement of why you projected that price ---

OR to enter the ESSAY Contest --
An Answer completion of the confession ---

"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . . . . . . . . . . . . ."

THE PRIZES !!

The POG CONTEST rules are set forth below and the WINNING PRIZE will be a GOLDEN "Napoleon the First" (Bonaparte himself) French 20 Franc piece, with 0.1867 ounces of Gold, (and carried at many battles by --guess who), worth about $100. The two "Runners-up's" will each get an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(Rich, Did you see that?)

The "best, most clever, and most devastating" short ESSAY statement (thirty word or more),attached to the POG Prognostication, wins a The Netherlands GOLDEN "King" (King Willem) 10 Guilder gold coin containing 0.1947 ounces of GOLD, while the "Runner- up" gets an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(OK Rich, Did you see that?)
===
LET the CONTESTS continue !
<;-)

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlJoin the FUN and become wealthy at the same time !! <;-)
===
Just enter either or BOTH Portions of the new CONTEST, and WIN "FREE" Gold and/or Silver !!! To enter, you must have a Free "POSTING PASSWORD". BUT, IF you do not now have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD) --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK above ! He makes it easy and painless too. There WILL be FREE GOLD and Silver given away for the BEST ESSAY and most accurate Price Of Gold (POG) Prognostications.
<;-)

Carl H . immm is that so , tis heresay to be sure . Betwixt me and yea sir I wonder what other boards thee subject doth situate the facets oft of thy round table ?.
Albeit oil on water , and the sun doth colour a rainbow ,
is there a band of gold percieved therein apon all lands in that interesting puddle or is thy perspective differently focused and one sees thyself alookin therein
twat commodity is envisaged within an anathema of hope.
Or is it thee a slippery plot of the perodic table that doth logically meter out thy rumour ?.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030303/markets_japan_mof_1.html(Reuters excerpt)
Market sources said the [Japanese] authorities are believed to have intervened in the foreign exchange market on Tuesday. The Bank of Japan, acting as an agent for the Ministry of Finance, was believed to have been buying dollars at around 117.50/55 yen.

Japanese officials are concerned that a strong currency could undermine exports, one of the few bright spots in the economy.

-------(see url)

WHEEEeeeeeeeeee...!

Like it or not, we are all sharing a downward currency slide unless and until we individually choose to step off with gold. Keep the purchasing power you've earned with a regular program of gold diversification. Call USAGOLD - Centennial for assistance.

R.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Cfvxy%2Ctnxy%2Cgcg03.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=15&go.y=14The long Bond bumped up against it's previous low last evening and promptly retreated....the Gates of Hell revisited!
Expect to see an all-out effort on the SM this week...and a weakening Dollar (good maybe for PoG).
Meanwhile Euro/Oil/Gold are pretty benign...it's as if the Euro has already been installed as WRC....hmmmm!

http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/current.htmlA bit of gold from the CB Insider:

(excerpt)
------------Answering detractors who said his government was failing in its promises, he observed deadpan, "As it turns out, the government is full of thieves, smugglers, bribe-takers, people who deal with suspicious business partners, foreign services and spies."--------------

Further, there is a good lesson to be found in this following news brief from Norway for anyone who likes to ponder improvements to the model of best management practices for CB reserves, etc.:

------------This year Norway's Treasury is not to get a bean from the central bank, which regrets that, as its accounts show a deficit of 24.1 billion krone for 2002 (compared to a deficit of 4.7 billion in 2001), there won't be much to go round for the government. A press release from the bank explained that the results "must be assessed against the background of Norges Bank's responsibilities", and pointed to how factors outside its control can lead to "wide annual fluctuations" in its accounts, highlighting how the appreciation of the krone set against the bad performance of the stock markets meant that reserves had taken a bit of a tumble. Will this make any difference to the bank's investment strategies, one can only wonder?---------

Click url for this and more worldly news in the latest bi-weekly update from the always insightful and ever entertaining folks at Central Banking Publications Ltd.

R.

If the last 12 Mth's are used as a yardstick for the forseeable? future...wouldn't it be prudent to hold E320 +or- to secure 10 bbl or 1oz Au?

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlShows movement of gold since the April 2001 low.

http://www.yellowtimes.org/article.php?sid=1114''Shooting the money changers''
Printed on Monday, March 03, 2003 @ 01:08:50 EST
By Paul Harris
YellowTimes.org Columnist (Canada)
(YellowTimes.org) � After World War II, a conference at Bretton Woods pegged the value of gold at U.S. $35 per ounce. That artificially established number had the virtue of a fixed target against which the currencies and the productivity of the world's nations could be measured. This allowed for economic stability and for fair and easily understandable international trade.
In one of his most disastrous moves as President of the United States, Richard Nixon abandoned the "gold standard" and allowed the American dollar to float against everyone else's currency. Because of the huge value of American productivity, the U.S. dollar soon became the de facto standard against which everything else was measured. But it was a moving target. To what this has led is 30 or so years of currency speculation that has been a total disaster for all but the strongest players.
In order to value transactions with the rest of the world, the value of a country's currency is related to the value of currencies in other countries by an exchange rate. And exchange rates come in two flavors. With a "floating" system of exchange, the value of a country's currency against that of other countries is allowed to change more or less freely according to the supply and demand for the currency. The supply and demand is, in turn, usually a function of the fundamental value of the country's assets, its productivity rate, political stability, and so on.
Because a floating system has high likelihood of volatility, a large number of countries engage in some sort of "fixing" of the exchange rate. Using the European Monetary System as an example, rates for the Euro can change only within a very narrow margin. This keeps the value of the currency quite stable and it usually only changes because of agreement among the market participants that the present parity is no longer tenable when a supply of the currency is, or is likely to become, greater than the demand for it. Often, the only reason for the change is speculation that it is about to change.
Therein lies the problem. Currency trading dwarfs all other financial transactions. The daily global volume of currency transactions is nearly $1.5 trillion. It is estimated that 80-90 percent of those transactions have nothing to do with the exchange of goods or services or productivity or exploration or development; they are just speculation. Kind of like an international game of craps.
Now some of this trading is at least moderately desirable. Large institutional investors and financial institutions routinely engage in short-term arbitrage transactions where they trade away price differences for the same currency in different markets. These are not, by nature, speculative transactions and are important for the efficient fixing of prices in financial markets and for securing worldwide liquidity.
But speculation is something completely different. It is the deliberate taking of a risk by buying or selling an asset in order to take advantage of an anticipated favorable future price change of the underlying asset. The main problem here is that such a subjective interpretation of future price changes is based on guessing. For currency, it means buying and selling currency that you don't actually ever get with money you never actually had in hopes that your transaction will pay for itself and leave you with a profit. The trouble arises when it doesn't work out that way.
In principle, large-scale speculation is triggered when the fundamental economic and political indicators of a country change. If those indicators have worsened, the central bank of a "fixed rate" country will usually try to defend its currency by selling its foreign exchange reserves for local currency, thereby matching the increased supply of local currency with increased demand. They might also increase domestic interest rates to make holding that currency more attractive. But this kind of defense cannot withstand the thrust of the market for very long.
Global financial speculative behavior has become rampant. Large sums of money are now able to move largely uncontrolled and untaxed around the globe in search of the highest possible return in the shortest possible time. This makes all currencies unstable, particularly those that have been left to float. It makes the financial positions of the smaller or developing countries uncertain and they spend so much of their meager resources trying to protect themselves that they never have the opportunity to get ahead.
Because this speculation is so rampant and so invisible, the possibility of attacks on a country's currency are very real; control of a country's economy by outside sources who usually have no interest in that country is relatively common; a country can suffer a financial crisis totally outside its ability to manage.
None of this has anything to do with value. If I have corn to trade, by negotiating I can convince my neighbor that my corn is worth a certain volume of his carrots and we can make a deal. But trading in currencies, and particularly the speculative trading of those currencies, has almost nothing to do with how many veggies we have grown. It is not much different than buying a lottery ticket except that you may never actually lay out the cash for the ticket.
There are certainly some moral implications to all of this. Wealth that is earned through work is good and desirable; wealth that arises solely from gambling, as currency speculation surely is, is not. The powerful grip that currency trading and currency speculation exercises over global, regional, and national economies is an indication of how little importance is accorded to the fundamental question of social justice. Essentially, human greed has been institutionalized and legitimized.
It is essential that an effective sanctioning mechanism be developed, through taxation, to eliminate this short-term profit behavior; current international policies are insufficient. Presently, the preferred control is maintenance of international financial order by a mix of strengthened reporting requirements for financial institutions (not just banks) combined with an officially sanctioned safety net of (mostly) International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans. However, the IMF has already proved itself ineffective in preventing new currency crises and it does not attack the speculative nature of the money trading. It actually looks more like officially sanctioned speculation that generates private profits and socializes losses that have to be covered by government funding.
Ideally, an instrument that penalizes speculation (such as by taxation) should try to discriminate against and reduce the harmful effects of the system while maintaining its benefits. But, however it is done, we have to get our financial futures out of the hands of the crapshooters.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2817995.stmSnip:
"The rapidly growing trade in derivatives poses a "mega-catastrophic risk" for the economy and most shares are still "too expensive", legendary investor Warren Buffett has warned. Outstanding derivatives contracts - excluding those traded on exchanges such as the International Petroleum Exchange - are worth close to $85 trillion, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association."

Waverider: Just in case anyone missed this tidbit yesterday. BTW - Spot'n Spike are frisky this morning!

I have a substantial (for me) investment in this fund. Lately I have become dissatisfied with the performance, largely because the two largest holdings in the fund are the super hedgers, Barrick & Placer Dome. I have e-mailed Mr. John Brennan about this situation several times. I would like to suggest anyone else who feels the way I do to do the same. Maybe together we can get some changes in the portfolio which will be more conducive to better performance.Regards.

I too, have a substantial investment in that fund. What is his e-mail?

http://www.fortune.com/fortune/investing/articles/0%2C15114%2C427751%2C00.html
This article concerning Warren Buffet's statements about the nature and liability of derivatives trading is clearly written and very informative.

test

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=sThere is struggle this morning, over whether the dollar's fall will be temporarily halted at 99.

Gold is as a submerged balloon being held deep under water. The effort to effect this submersion requires capital expended by central banks, and such effort is expended, at bottom, to defend the dollar.

This defense is NOT going well, and has doubtful prospects.

pop quiz

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/chapman030403.htmlIraqnophobia by David Chapman -Excerpts:
"A new word has appeared in our vocabulary. Iraqnophobia - fear of Iraq or fear of terrorism. Lets be clear. By definition, phobias are IRRATIONAL, meaning they interfere with one's everyday life or daily routine. But what appears as IRRATIONAL to most people is very real to those suffering from the phobia. In this case it is a mass phobia, the fear of a terrorist attack involving chemicals or biological weapons. Recently the United States was placed on code 'Orange' or a state of high alert that an attack was imminent.....
But Iraqnophobia is biting. Consumer confidence in the US fell a shocking 15 points in February to 64 from a revised 78.8 in January. Analysts could only scramble to explain this sharp drop due to a falling stock market, blizzards, colder than expected weather resulting in sharply rising fuel prices and of course Iraqnophobia. Consumer confidence had not seen such a sharp drop since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1991 and the Iranian hostage crisis of April 1980.
And it seems that no matter where you turn today it is Iraq 24/7. The UN Security Council is badly split threatening its long-term existence.....
What all this does is it continues to cast a pall over the market that some pundits say is holding the market back. But as we have pointed out in the past that with everything possibly coming apart in global geopolitics (UN, Iraq) and the economy on shaky ground (rising price inflation, slow down in spending, falling consumer confidence, continued pressure on employment, rising budget and trade deficits, high debt levels and a slowing economy) the risk is higher for an accident that triggers an even broader stock market sell off. We have also pointed out that Iraq is merely a cover for an economy that is on shaky ground anyway irrespective of an invasion or no invasion. But the Iraq situation is certainly not helping and adds to the anxiety and therefore Iraqnophobia.
Energy and gold stocks are also feeling the uncertainty. While gold ran to $380 it has since corrected down into the $340 area. Oil prices shot to almost $40 before settling back. Natural Gas prices have been in a strong uptrend mainly because of the weather and shortages. Gold and oil stocks have not followed the upward movement in the commodity confusing many. Some believe that gold and oil stocks will fall sharply once an Iraqi invasion begins as they did in 1991 when the Gulf War started and that may be a part of the reason for the uncertainty. Call it another case of Iraqnophobia but in a different way.
But both sectors are in strong uptrends backed by strong fundamentals. With the US Dollar in full retreat both these commodities priced in US$ are major beneficiaries as are all commodities priced in US$. Rising commodity prices are a major reason we are now seeing inflationary pressures. And rising commodity prices have a negative impact on the consumer, particularly the sharply rising oil and gas prices. The falling US$ is putting pressure on the already huge trade deficit. Some see the trade deficit soon hitting $600 billion per year. Couple this with the possibility of $400 billion budget deficits and the US could soon have trillion dollar deficits or 10% of the entire economy. These numbers are too huge to dismiss easily.
And gold (and other precious metals such as silver) along with oil and gas are commodities with supply problems as well. War or threat of war in the middle east coupled with no major new discoveries in over 30 years keep the pressure on oil prices irrespective of cold weather. New demands including the probable introduction of the Islamic Gold Dinar in 2004 will keep the demand pressure on gold prices. Silver has been drawing from current supplies for years....."

Nice hatchet job by barrons on Royalgold.So what does it mean?The cabal is running out of ammo,they cant even disguise their attacks on gold anymore lol.Each attempt more and more desperate.Warren buffet says derivatives are a ticking timebomb.We live a world of "stick your head in the sand,and it will just go away".I wish i had more usd to sell,but alas i dont.The world is switching to euros and gold.And all the king's horses and all the king's men couldnt put humpty together again.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Alert Investors

Just as the primary trend in gold is up as shown by our nearby
graph, the primary trend in stocks is down. If you diversify your
portfolio with gold, you not only gain by being in gold, you save what
you otherwise would have lost in the stock market. Richard Russell, the
well-regarded long-time investment analyst who has correctly and
consistently forecasted the direction of both markets, says the stock
market and gold will cross in the 2000 to 3000 area. Think about that
for a moment. What will that mean to your portfolio if not properly
diversified with gold? What will it mean if it is?

Gold to diversify your portfolio is an easy phone call away.
1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/iwon-com/news-story.asp?guid={0805DBD3-F460-4F6C-91DF-29BDA52055E7}SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Just hours after Warren Buffett took his annual bash at stocks and derivatives, bullion investors Tuesday speculated the famed financier was buying gold.

...Gold's price Tuesday at midday in New York was up $4 at $353.30.

Much of the gain, and a corresponding rise in sputtering gold-mining shares, came Tuesday after Andy Smith, a London-based bullion analyst, publicized Buffett's remarks about a derivatives nightmare and the potential for a fiscal meltdown.

"True, the 'G' word does not appear. Except between every line," said Smith Tuesday in a Mitsui Precious Metals report. "The (derivatives) genie is out of the bottle, and you do not have three wishes. Just a potentially toxic, mega-catastrophic mess."

...Smith says he was reluctant to fan the fires among gold bugs, who seemingly embrace any and every rumor that could boost prospects of the long-languishing metal. "I have detected a too-ready willingness to believe this," Smith told me about a Buffett-gold connection, "which is why I nearly did not send it out."

Still, Smith said he detects a growing uneasiness with traditional investments on the part of Buffett, an investor watched by tens of millions of other investors around the world. Buffett in his excerpts from his upcoming annual letter to shareholders, expected on Saturday, was ultra-negative on most stocks.

Other professionals in the bullion world are, like Smith, intrigued but circumspect. "If a 'Buffett buying gold rumor' is circulating, I would be dubious about it," says Ian McAvity, a director of gold repository Central Fund of Canada... "The invisibility of gold and other foreign activity is paramount to most buyers."

-------(see url for text)-----

An interesting and balanced presentation. Notable is Andy Smith's explanation of Berkshire's likely 2% reporting threshold... meaning, up to 150 tonnes could have been accumulated without the company feeling any need for disclosure to investors on that portfolio position.

R.

Only at such time as Vanguard starts putting links on their website directing investors toward Centennial will we be able to allow posts that point investors toward them.

I hope that doesn't strike anyone as an unreasonable forum policy with respect to the host.

R.

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. Any comments about your own internet presence?

MK. First and foremost, USAGOLD / Centennial has always been a brick-and-mortar brokerage headquartered in secure and professional office space here in Denver, Colorado. In function our own website is just a readily-available extension of our advertising and marketing programs. The USAGOLD website further gives us the opportunity to easily provide our clientele with timely market information and commentary.

Thank you Sir Zhisheng for the excellent metaphor describing the battle between gold and the dollar.
How about this one: pumping air (dollars) into a flat tire(whole system).

Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
2/28/03 GC3J HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 OI = 105,993
3/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 OI = 104,153
3/04/03 GC3J HIGH = $354.9 low = $349.5 Settlement = $353.3 Change +$4.0 OI = ?

For the FIRST DAY, 2/28, Sir Kevin$ was "King of the Hill"
For the SECOND DAY, 3/3, Sir Kevin$ was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!
For the THIRD DAY, 3/4, Sir Zelts is NOW "King of the Hill" !!!

<<<< SNIP from Entries >>>>

**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $344.0 **** monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787)

**** $340.0 **** kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)
====
Does the TREND appear to be "UP" & "Down", BUT with a BIAS toward "UP" ?
<;-)

CPM has no real competition from this fund and I doubt they will ever advertise here. I took all my money out over a year ago and bought physical after writing a letter of similar complaint. I also noted that the directors of this fund had no experience in precious metals but rather had interests and backgrounds in industries that would benefit from low PM prices. I received no answer to my letter.

tapioca time

thom calandra's 1000 pointer may soon appear in a market near you

I was a bit disappointed with the removal of my message re Vanguard. I'm not sure which rule I violated. My post had to do with their announced closing of their precious metals fund which means they are no longer a competitor for gold oriented investments (at least for the time being).

Boilermaker

On a day that North Korea basically put the world on annihilation notice, the Nimitz is dispatched post haste to Iraq, Buffet and Munger basically say they know something we don't (yet) about derivative WMD's, and Greenspan declares the housing bubble pricked gold crawls to a $3.90 gain. It is illogical unless you have the knowledge that this site and GATA have provided. I noticed they (media) were implying that Buffet alone had accounted for the 35% POG rise over the last year. Still another BS reason to divert people from truth. Barron's couldn't possibly speak truth. They are bought and paid for shills. The truth about gold is making BB's "quake in their stolen boots" as Marx once said.

Excerpt from Operative's Diary

2:00 AM EST Date: (redacted)
I received an urgent phone call from an executive in the gold mining business.
Mr. (redacted) of (redacted) Mining Corp had been referred to our office by (redacted). He was seeking our services in order to remove 30 tons of gold purchased from a bank but unable unable to obtain local governmental permission
for clearance through customs. A meeting was set up on (redacted)at the (redacted) hotel in the Canary Islands to meet and discuss how we might be of service.

Background:

The executive arrived in at the hotel carrying a large legal briefcase of documents. Upon discussing his current situation and reviewing the provided documents it was clear that he did indeed own the gold purchased from the Bank of Portugal. It was also clear from the documents that the executive had sold forward a large amount of his mine's production. It was not clear, to me at least, the details of this process called "hedging" in his industry. It all seemed extremely complicated and perhaps designed to be obtuse.

The price of gold had risen rather sharply in recent months and several of the hedged contracts became redeemable. As fortune, or lack of, would have it the executive's company did not have the physical gold to make good on the contracts. He was able to arrange a purchase of 30 tons from a bank and actually
had completed delivery of the gold which had been temporarily placed in a Lisbon warehouse in order to prepare the gold for private charter shipment out of the country.

The Problem:

One day after accepting delivery the executive received notice from the banks legal dept. It appears that a "mistake" had been made since the bank officer had no legal grounds to actually sell the gold to a private party. The letter offered to refund the money upon return of the gold to the bank with a 5 percent handling charge for any expenses the executive had incurred during this "misunderstanding ". The letter also pointed out that any attempts to remove the gold from the country would be met with complete confiscation by customs and no monies would be paid. The executive required the gold to satisfy contractual commitments and felt he had been misled by the bank and intended to attempt to take his paid for gold home with him. A plan was developed to undertake the mission and a fee paid in the amount of (redacted) million dollars.

The Operation:

Another warehouse was rented nearby where the gold was stored. Half a dozen high temperature ovens, 4 tons of clay, and 60 tons of common paving bricks were purchased. The gold bars were coated with a mixture of clay and baked giving them the appearance of brick paving stones. The "gold bricks" were interspersed with normal bricks. While this process was underway another team member secured the bill of lading and proper documentation to ship by sea the almost 90 tons of paving bricks to South Africa. Upon delivery of the "product" to the shipping yard, and confirmation that the order had been loaded upon the ship, the executive and our team members departed the country and returned home.

Final Disposition:

The products never arrived to South Africa. An operative was sent back to Portugal to investigate the situation. A bribe of (redacted) was paid to a local custom official who provided documents of the ships entire manifest. It appears that an error in delivery had taken place.. There were 3 shipments labeled as brick/stone. My guess is the gold, now incased in clay brick form, is one of three places. A new lobby of a bank in England. A new bathroom floor for a large villa in Greece. The third choice is a renovation of a shopping mall in Boston.

Update:
Approximately 5 weeks have passed since the lost shipment. Talks with the executive and his company for additional money in order to follow up on the missing gold shipment have stalled. Recent phone calls have not been returned and recent news story show the executive has been fired.
Also of interest is a recent news release by the Bank of Portugal of a "sale" of 30 tons of gold.

Early last year I noticed vgpmx was not performing like most of the other gold funds. While most gold funds were increasing in value, vgpmx was hardly moving. Like you I wrote to the president of Vanguard. Several weeks later I received a very vanilla form letter reply from some assistant to the assistant of the president. About the same time I began to noticed that I wasn't receiving confirmations and reports from another fund I have with vanguard. With the poor showing of vgpmx and this unusual mail problem, I sold my vgpmx which I had for several years and bought Gabelli gold fund. Now like magic my reports from Vanguard are arriving on time and the performance for goldx makes very pleasant reading.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/anon/anon030403.htmlsnippet:

"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966.

"There can be no question that the US economy is at its most critical juncture since the Great Depression of the 1930's. With both the cause and pattern of the present downturn diametrically different from those of prior recessions, it should be clear that past experience cannot help in accessing what is to come." The Richebacher Letter, October 2002.

"Sharp rise in US job losses adds to gloom." "Fears grow over faltering global rebound as Germany and UK also report bleak economic news." Front Page headline: The Financial Times Jan 11/12 2003 "US job losses increased sharply last month, adding to concerns about the weakening global economy recovery. The 101,000 decline in payrolls was the largest since February and surprised Wall Street... US job losses last year reached 181,000 the worst since the end of the 1991 recession. Losses in the manufacturing sector became more widespread. Makers of aircraft, cars, computers and films experienced some of the biggest percentage declinesin employment along with restaurants, bars, retailers and banks." Ibid.. The Kondratieff winter is here, and it is getting colder.

The economy has only just begun its slide into the Long Wave depression, and already excessive debt is leading to significant bankruptcies. As the recession deepens, and it will, the pace of bankruptcies will increase markedly. It is akin to a landslide that starts from a single rock dislodged from the top of a steep hill. Once the Kondratieff winter debt landslide is set in motion there is nothing that will stop it until it has run its course.
__________
This article makes a good case for gold.

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=2324935WASHINGTON, March 4 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, preparing to defend White House tax-cutting plans before Congress, charged on Tuesday that some lawmakers were using future deficit increases as an excuse for opposition.

..."Even (Federal Reserve) Chairman (Alan) Greenspan, something of a deficit hawk, has said the current deficits are not of a level to create any disruptions in the financial markets," Snow said.

..."They don't disrupt financial markets, they don't lead to higher interest rates and they're clearly manageable," Snow said. "The fact of the matter is a lot of people up there (on Capitol Hill) don't want the [tax] plan, and the deficit is an argument that is convenient but it's not a substantive attack on the merits of the plan."

He said projected deficits, amounting to about 3 percent of total national output, were "not monumental by historical standards" though he said it was true that there will be deficits "for some years to come."

-------(see url for article)-------

Snow, Greenspan... it is the nature of the job to give assurance and say all is well. Nobody wants to see a panic, nor would they want to induce one during their own watch.

It is fair enough, technically, to say as Snow did that the current deficits are not of a level to create any disruptions in the financial markets. (It's not like the Treasury is trying to sell $5 trillion of new debt to the investors in any given year.) However, with deficits expected for years to come adding to the accumulated debtload from years past, it is a change in the collective mindset of the perennial bond buyers and holders that would precipitate a market "disruption" should they decide to sell en masse -- regardless of the current budget.

Diversify your portfolio to limit your exposure.

R.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2003/03/04/cnbuff04.xml&sSheet=/money/2003/03/04/ixcity.html
Snippit:

Warren Buffett is poised to issue his most doom-laden forecast for the state of the world economy yet, including a damning verdict on the derivatives industry he fears could cause a global financial crisis. In the upcoming annual letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Mr Buffett drops his usual folksy style to warn that banks do not understand the hidden risks lurking on their balance sheets. He labels derivatives "time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system" and "financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal".

"Despite three years of falling prices which have significantly improved the attractiveness of common stocks, we still find very few that even mildly interest us. That dismal fact is testimony to the insanity of the valuations reached during the Great Bubble. Unfortunately, the hangover may prove to be proportional to the binge," he writes. Until now vague warnings about the pyramid nature of derivatives contracts have led to bland assurance from banks that there is no threat to their stability. Mr Buffett says the banks simply have no idea what their exposure could be. "When Charlie [Munger, his business partner] and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don't understand how much risk the institution is taking."

Derivatives are often complex financial instruments that allow investors to take bets on anything from share prices to the weather. Their range is limited, says Mr Buffett, "only by the imagination of man, or sometimes, so it seems, madmen". Enron was especially fond of derivatives, offering contracts that would be settled years in the future and claiming profits immediately.


Black Blade: That last paragraph sounds ominously like what Barrick says about its forward sales structure � ouch! The Buffett story and the derivatives mess is getting some exposure in the financial media today.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/02/28/retirement/costs/index.htm
Most people have grossly underestimated how much they'll need to save for their golden years.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Americans spend a lot of time fantasizing about all the fun they'll have when they retire. But the daydreams almost never include the ugly reality: just how much those extended vacations are going to cost. According to a survey by the American Savings Education Council (ASEC), more than half of all workers anticipate they'll need less than 70 percent of their pre-retirement income during their golden years � an estimate that's unrealistic for even the most disciplined budgeters. "People often wrongly assume that their expenses are going to come down when they retire, but in fact they often go up," said Don Blandin, ASEC's president. "Depending on how long you live, the kinds of medical problems you have and the kind of lifestyle you want, you may need 120 percent of your current income during retirement."

Black Blade: Retirement the "unachievable dream". Many will never be able to afford to retire after having their hopes and dreams dashed by the fraud of Wall Street. It reminds me of the old story where a banker and a client go down to the marina in New York City. The banker points and says "those are the bankers and brokers yachts". The client asks "where are the clients yachts?" In short the only one who will look out for your interests is yourself. Always look out for number one. Diversify with a bit of PM insurance.

If Jed and Granny strike oil, and are directed to the V-Guard Group with their newfound wealth, I'm sure V-Guard brokers would be happy to find an investment placement for each and every one of Jed's dollars. That's a serious competitor. And specifically regarding their most "goldish" fund, the one in question, they haven't yet shut the door as you've implied. Take another look at the first sentence in your origianl link: "...closed the fund to all new investments effective at the close of business on June 28." That is fully four months of free promotions that we (the forum) have no obligation to provide for them for this fund, nor afterward for any other investments they might wish to provide.

I should hasten to add that this applies only to the forum. You may in fact find in direct consultation with the brokers at Centennial they just might gently point you toward an investment competitor like this as part of an overall investment/diversification strategy -- once your physical metal needs have been prudently attended to. However, if we (at the forum) facilitate steering someone away before they have a personal chat with our host, then we've provided a disservice to our host. That's the important distinction. Seem fair enough?

Thanks for your interest and support!

R.

The Vanguard PM fund was closed 6/28/02, 8 months ago.
Your rule #4 states
"Promotional posts in general.
Examples include promotion of your organization, yourself (includes posting e-mail addresses), a company you work for or invest in, and promotion of internet sites and businesses that compete directly with USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals'

Does this mean that any firm that accepts investors money such as a bank or brokerage or real estate firm, cannot be linked in our messages? I thought it referred to PM oriented businesses.

But, not to whine. I accept the removal and let's move on. You do a wonderful job and I do not wish to cause you grief over such a minor matter.

Cheers,
Boilermaker

http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1046806088nN04520829&tit=Euro%2Fdollar%20peeks%20above%20$1.09&type=internazionali&ling=EN(Reuters) -- Euro/dollar stages short-covering bounce above $1.09 figure, but unable to press to new highs after abortive run at February's 4-year high at 1.0938 leads to some capitulation selling. Dealers report options-related resistance in $1.0950 region, but expect a test of $1.10 as soon as this week as Iraq war fears reach full boil.

-----(from url)-----

As you contemplate a rising euro or rising gold, bear in mind self-reinforcing market actions (i.e., falling dollar expectations give rise to liquidation actions which confirm the expectations which drive more selling action, etc) particularly where a pardigm shift may be brought about in such a way that there is no "oversold" condition to rebound from or otherwise justify a two-way market. That is a reason to own gold if ever there was one.

R.

MR. Buffett could buy 1 billion worth of gold and demand delievery,I would think that would throw markets into chaos,goverment would never allow it.The person who does such a thing may be taking a chance with his or her very life.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlShort Snip:
"Gold gained on a weakening U.S. dollar and continued rising geopolitical tensions. Another positive for gold could be the difference between inflation and nominal interest rates. Even though the "official" inflation rate is very low, "real" interest rates are even lower, actually the "real" interest rate is negative. When "real" interest rates, accounting for the difference between inflation and nominal interest rates dip into negative territory, the price of gold should rise. Real rates have not slipped into negative territory since the late 1970's and 1980's. In the past when real rates were negative gold gained more than 30% on an annualized basis."

New York, March 4 (Bloomberg)03/04 07:35

By Mark Tannenbaum

New York, March 4 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar approached the weakest level in almost four years against the euro on speculation the U.S. will attack Iraq with or without United Nations backing.

``The U.S. seems ready to go it alone even if they can't get support, which would rattle the dollar,'' said Haydn Davies, chief economist in London at Barclays Global Investors, which oversees about 580 billion pounds ($918 billion). The firm has favored euros over dollars ``for some time'' and sees ``no reason to change.''
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Major Currency Dollar Index is 93.83 as of 4:33PM March 4, 2003. The Euro at 1.0883.

The down-trend in the MCDI has shown an unbroken R^2 value above .9 with an end-of-year intersect at 73. Although it's early in the year, this MCDI down trend is very solid. It began its linear down slope with the termination of Paul O�Neill and Lawrence Lindsay. The Euro levelled off in Feb and now is headed back up. There are behind-the-scenes thingys happening here with the weak dollar and the strong Euro and the maybe weakening yen.

Beware the voices that whisper that "Gold has been decoupled from the dollar" and "Gold shares don't track the metal any more" ...because "It's a new paradigm" and ..."Gold is not the place to be". The S&P said as much about gold funds in this morning's "volatility warning". Anyone who disagrees with the administrative powers is demonized.

France, Germany�gold bugs. Huh? Have gold bugs achieved so much inherent power that we can now prompt the S&P into firing warning shots?

Better buy some more.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/04/business/04AUTO.htmlSnip:

DETROIT, March 3 � Sales of the lucrative, gas-guzzling giants of the auto industry � the Escalades, Excursions, Suburbans and other big sport utility vehicles � are sliding, according to figures released today.

Analysts said that rising gas prices and a drumbeat of criticism of S.U.V.'s figure in the slowing sales. But the biggest culprit, they said, is a new wave of small and medium-size sport utilities from Asian automakers that are chipping away at a crucial profit center for the domestic auto industry.
..................

"Unless they're going to offer them two for one, I don't see how they're going to keep up the sales rates they had been so optimistic about," said Diane C. Swonk, an economist at Bank One. "At some point in time, we have market saturation."
**********
Misetich

The auto and housing industry were the "bastions" of the US economy in 2002 - both are showing signs of saturation - The slowdown effect won't be a pretty sight

What is holding up the US $?

Got gold?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2814825.stmSnip:

China is considering setting up a $10bn (�6.3bn) fund to purchase oil for a strategic reserve, reports in the state media said.
A strategic reserve could be financed out of the country's rapidly-growing foreign exchange reserves, the official China Daily newspaper reported.

..........
Misetich

Both China and Europe are increasing oil reserves as US inventories are almost at all time lows-

Selling US $ and buying Real Assets such as Oil and Gold is becoming a trendy thing...

Got gold?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2820469.stmSnip:

The United States is ordering extra military forces to the western Pacific to boost defences near North Korea.

The move comes amid heightened tension with Pyongyang, following Monday's interception of a US surveillance plane by four North Korean fighter jets in international airspace.
................
Misetich

Gold is poised to explode in days to come as the geopolitical scene heats up - the US and Britain are going head to head with Russia, China, Europe and the majority of Gulf States and North Korea situation getting hotter and hotter by the minute

All Onboard on the Gold Bull Express

Got gold?

"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it because it was available. The transaction was a business arrangement that I undertook for a client in the Middle East. You see, I am a crude oil broker who arranges for tankers to deliver crude from Middle East sellers (my clients) to Western buyers. One of my clients had given me a challenge in the conduct of doing sales for him. It seems that he will only accept Euros for his oil. I was recently approached by a buyer who was interested in obtaining 10 million barrels of crude to top off his Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Apparently he was expecting war to break out in the ME and that a disruption in oil production would occur. Unfortunately the buyer was adamant about using dollars for the purchase.

Wanting to conclude this sale, I thought perhaps my ME client might accept a universal currency, gold, for these shipments. Upon explaining the situation with him he thought for a moment and I noticed a sly grin cross his face just before he nodded his assent. Then I proceeded to contact the buyer with this alternative means of payment. Their response was stony silence followed by a polite but firm "impossible".

Not to be discouraged by this impasse, the new challenge was to find a way to convert dollars to gold without revealing the conversion to my client (who has a bad temper). I have been a follower of the gold wars for many years and knew that European CB's have been disgorging their gold at 400 tonnes per year under the Washington Agreement. All I needed was a paltry 30 tonnes that would convert the $350 million currency to gold for my client. I contacted the Swiss who have been the major sellers at 6 tonnes per week but was told that their sales were "prearranged" and none was available to the open market. I decided to contact the BIS to see if they knew of a source. They were not at all helpful but a secretary there suggested that I call the Bank of Portugal because she had recently noticed lots of correspondence with them regarding their gold holdings and thought they might be preparing to sell some.

When I contacted the BOP I learned that they indeed were preparing a sale and that an undisclosed buyer had already spoken it for. A good friend of mine in Lisbon knows a BOP insider who could provide the identity of the buyer for a "finder's fee". The fee paid, I learned that the gold was to have been purchased anonymously for the account of a wealthy ME ruler, to be delivered to a destination in Libya. I was astonished to learn that the buyer was my own client. However, the insider told me that when the BOP learned the identity of the buyer they reneged on the deal and were negotiating with alternate buyers. Using the identity of another wealthy ME client I was able to arrange the purchaseof the Portuguese gold. My reward? A modest commission, 1.5 tonnes. Everyone is happy. My garden grows ever more wealth. Life is good.

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htmSnip:

Fear In Check?...We have produced a series of charts that we hope help explain what the American public may now be in the process of beginning to discount. As you know, the American public has been walking away from equity mutual funds in slow motion fashion for a good seven or eight months now. Yet they have continued to borrow and spend for homes, cars, etc. In our minds, that borrowing and spending could not have occurred without a certain psychological conviction that the labor market would again revive in a relatively short term time frame. It may just be that the current drop in consumer confidence is measuring a perceptual or psychological give up on the part of households relating directly to jobs. Again, as you know, this has been a long time coming despite layoff pressure and continuing high levels of jobless claims data that has steadfastly refused to improve on what is going on close to two years now.
*********
Misetich

As mortgage refinancing slows and layoffs increase its difficult to invision consumer spending holding up -

What is going to happen to the overvalued US stock market and the ovevalued US $ if the bastion (2/3 of US economy ) slows down?

All Onboard On The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?

I made the mistake of assuming the article was current. A good reminder for me to always check the fine print. My general guidance holds, though, regardless of year.

Imagine a group of stock brokers or futures brokers or derivative/investment bankers sitting around having a slow day at the office. I don't think anyone here would be happy to see a bunch of Wall Street's most desperate (or aggressive) brokers touting their particular brand of wares, with or without contact info. In essence they would be trying to lure your attention and investment dollars away from physical gold and into something that would support their own postions. The problem we face with an anonymous posting board is we don't know who might be a broker trolling for customers and who is simply an interested investor trying to broaden his scope of study and discussion. As a general rule, then, we must settle for a policy as near as we can muster that prohibits the abuses without unduly affecting the majority of participants.

To a large extent we have been able to leave it to our participants to intuitively know where to draw the line in the context of their investment discussions.

Basically, if a person has a desire to post pro-"Wall Street" investments and commentary, we expect that would be done at another forum -- one devoted to that purpose. Otherwise, a post appearing here that directs traffic or attention to typical Wall Street services would be generally viewed with suspicion (a possible wolf in sheep's clothing(?)) and discouraged. Again, since we rely heavily on your voluntary cooperation to limit the potential abuses in a forum like this, I hope this all seems clear; though I am sure it is clearest only to anyone walking a mile in Centennial's moccasins -- anyone trying to run a successful business in a world of cutthroat competition. We simply don't want to make it any easier for the competition on Centennial's dime.

R.

Did you ever dream of what you could be? the president, a superstar or maybe on t.v., but what ever happend to those dreams? you can paint pictures in your mind for you to bring back anytime. when your castles are in the air
and suddenly there not there
you wonder how u got out here at all,
so welcome to the cold cruel world how do u like the temperature out here? bet u never thought it could be this cold.

gold and silver honest money for honest people!

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/TGD/tgdBreakingNewsDisplay/0,,3,00.htmlSnip:

The United States has said it knows that Iranian-backed Iraqi opposition forces had moved into northern Iraq and was opposed to their presence. Advance elements of the Badr Brigade of the opposition Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq have set up an encampment in the Kurdish region. "We're aware of that. ... We're against any Iranian presence in northern Iraq or any group that reflects Iranian presence in northern Iraq," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher told a daily briefing.
********
Misetich

Iraq the pandora box?

US and Britain are counting on a "quick end" to the Iraqui Oil Rape - Is it really going to be that simple? Wouldn't surprise one bit if the US and Britain invade Iraq without UN backing and finding the Russians, Turks, Iranians and others move in to defend their "national interests". As the Iraq Pandora Box unfolds before our eyes we say..

All Onboard The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?

I just paid the February bill for my residence and it was
$300.77 for the month. My supplier was just approved for a 25% increase. This in Alberta, our country's biggest exporter of natural gas. What are the rest of North Americans paying during this cold snap? We have had a mild winter until the last two weeks and it is now bitterly cold. I note that the other day, Toronto Ontario had their coldest day ever since 1885.
I think the inflation train just left the station.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=586&e=1&cid=586&u=/nm/20030304/wl_nm/iraq_turkey_dcWith Turk's rejection of US troops on their property, knowing Kurds own Northern Iraq, Turks scared of the Kurds, US needs a northern base, there's got to be some leverage for US deployment with a Kurdish alliance. Nah, too radical. Kurds might want $50 billion. Oh well, lets buy some more metal and watch the lemmings run.

I'm hoping the whole show gets shut down and we can go back to the opening of the Greatest Depression without the war thing. Buy some CPM gold for intermission time.

Boilermaker

Wow, the dollar just dropped half a percent...what's up?

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4593191∾tion=articleSnow says net cost of dividend tax cut plan to be half 370 bln usd estimated

Snip:
WASHINGTON (AFX) - US Treasury Secretary John Snow said the cost of President George Bush's plan to abolish the double taxation of dividends will only be around half the 370 bln usd originally estimated.
..........
Snow said he will be looking to convince lawmakers this afternoon, when he testifies in front of the House Ways & Means Committee, that the dividend tax plans amount to "good economics".
In any case, Snow stressed again that the budget deficits foreseen over the coming years are "modest and manageable" in terms of GDP. The Treasury is forecasting record nominal budget deficits over the coming two years, even before accounting for the costs of any war in Iraq.
Snow said President Bush's 695 bln usd overall tax cut plan will create 2 mln new jobs by the end of 2004 and add some 2 percentage points to GDP over that time as well.
********
Misetich
Investors worlwide have been "Snowed" for years by unrealistic projections by the US Treasury - from phantom surpluses to "manageable deficits" to outright alleged maninpulation of commodities and currency markets

It is interesting that O'Neil is very critical of Bush's economic team policies as government deficits are getting out of control.

Sooner rather than later the US credit card is going to be canceled by foreigners as the irresponsible fiscal management and policies of the US Treasury and Federal Reserve Bank comes into clear focus

All On Board The Gold Bull Express - Gold is "Real Money"

Got gold?

http://reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=2326305≠wsType=usDollarRpt&menuType=currencies TOKYO, March 5 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to multi-year lows against the euro and Swiss franc on Wednesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said he was unruffled by its recent weakness.

"I'm not particularly concerned about that," Snow said when asked by reporters whether he was worried about the dollar's fall since the meeting of G7 finance ministers on February 21-22.

"The dollar is going to rise and fall some. There's nothing unusual about this, nothing alarming about it," Snow said after a House ways and means committee hearing.

The euro rose to a four-year high of of $1.0967 from $1.0885/90 in late U.S. trade, hitting a key stop-loss point of $1.0950. Some traders said the currency could test $1.10 soon.

The dollar also dropped to another four-year low of around 1.3310 francs from 1.3395/05 and also dropped more than a half yen to 117.30 yen .

"

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030304/markets_forex_dollar_1.htmlWhat comments?
When asked by reporters if he was worried about the dollar's fall over the past 10 days, U.S. SecTreas Snow replied, "I'm not particularly concerned about that. ... The dollar is going to rise and fall some. There's nothing unusual about this, nothing alarming about it." Further, "The dollar is in the marketplace and everything in the marketplace goes up some and falls some. It's within normal ranges. I don't see anything troubling about it."

The article linked above adds the following:

(excerpts)
NEW YORK, March 4 (Reuters) - The euro surged in thin market action to a four-year high against the dollar late on Tuesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said he was not concerned with the recent decline in the greenback's value.

"There is always this issue of the administration basically having a position that the markets determine the exchange rate and I think that was probably what was indicated today," said Robert Sinche, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Citibank in New York. "Traders may want to interpret something out of that but I think it would be a mistake to do so. But that is certainly the knee-jerk reaction."

----(see url)----

Take one guess why Robert Sinche of Citibank stood forward to downplay the currency movement. As global head of foreign exchange, do you think he just might a position? An opinion bias? Naaaaw...

R.

Tokyo, March 5 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to its lowest level in almost four years against the euro after U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said he was ``not particularly concerned'' about the currency, which has dropped 20 percent in the past year against its European counterpart.

The dollar fell to $1.0964 against the euro at 8:06 a.m., from $1.0925 late yesterday in New York, after reaching $1.0969, its weakest level since March 19, 1999. The dollar also fell against the yen, to 117.28 from 117.65.

Speaking to reporters following a hearing before the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee, Snow said, ``the dollar is going to rise and fall.'' The Treasury secretary last month reiterated the U.S.'s support for a strong dollar.

Snow's comments show ``that the U.S. is moving away from a strong dollar policy,'' said Paul McNee, chief currency trader at Australia and New Zealand Banking Corp. in Melbourne. ``This is as concrete an example of that as possible.'' The dollar's fall to $1.10 against the euro ``is a foregone conclusion. It should happen today.''
_________
Go Gold

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=2326278Snip:

NEW YORK, March 4 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence edged lower this week after increasing for the past three weeks, a survey published on Tuesday showed, with respondents rating economic weakness as their primary concern.
.........
Only 28 percent of Americans rated the economy in excellent or good shape, down from 30 percent in the previous week. They cited War fears and an anemic job market.
********
Misetich

Worth repeating " They cited War fears and an anemic job market."

The "real economy" is beginning to come to light - All government hedonics and manipulation cannot stop the truth! as the urnavelling of the house of cards

Unemployment is much, much higher rather the 6% being reported. Allegedly millions out of work are not included as unemployed. Jobs are scarce and debt levels on all time high both corporate and personal.

The US $ is being "managed" by superficial means and perception. It is not reflective of the real strength of the US economy and the growing twin deficits.

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=2323762Snip:

NEW YORK, March 4 (Reuters) - Layoff plans at U.S. firms rose for the second straight month, suggesting that a rebound in the nation's wobbly labor market is unlikely before the end of the year.In a fresh indication that U.S. companies are still firing workers, corporate managers announced 138,177 job cuts in February, up 5 percent from January's 132,222, employment research firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a report.
"It is doubtful a turnaround in hiring can be expected before fall, if then," said John Challenger, the research group's chief executive officer, in a statement.
*********
Misetich

Unemployment numbers are reportedly being fudged by the BLS - no wonder they abandoned reporting mass layoffs.

Markets are poised to thumb down this continued facitous reporting

All On Boar The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?

****388.8****
"Yes I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it because I needed it to build a bomb shelter. First I would lay-up the gold bars and silver- solder the joints. Then I would DuctTape The inside cracks to prevent chemical or biological agents from seeping in. The Gold will shield me from unwanted radiation and the DuctTape adhesive inhibits the biologicals. It slows them down and they get stuck in the adhesive.
When It is safe to come back out, I would sell 1/2 of my bomb shelter and buy the Upper Peninsula in Michigan to run my water farm and packaging plant. We will export 4 oz. cartons of water to the ME @ $100/ container. I would then payoff the US national Debt and organize home building parties for the homeless. (some 175 million in the US)
All This I would have done If I had gotten the whole 30 tonnes, but wouldn't you know, there were only 14 tonnes and a marker from the Federal Reserve.
It seems that this was the leaset that they could do under these circumstances

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=2322882Snip:

NEW YORK, March 4 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store sales decreased during the fourth week of February because of severe winter weather, a report said on Tuesday.Sales at major U.S. chain stores fell 0.2 percent in the week ended March 1 compared with the same week a year ago, the report said.
Sales declined 2.0 percent in the four weeks ended March 1, compared with the previous month, Instinet Research said in its weekly Redbook report.
*******
Misetich

Auto sales are down, housing inventories are rising, retail sales are down - and the spin is War worries, bad weather -

In the meantime Reality Check says consumers are tapped out as debt payments, job scarcity, vanishing portfolio and retirment values, increased energy costs, and general cost of living - such as housing, food -
Government deficits at all levels, local, state and federal are out of hand as tax revenes dwindle

Bottom Line - consumer disposal income is being eaten up - the refincing "band-aid" is wearing off -

All On Board On The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=2321876Snip:

Conservative calculations, which assume a swift campaign that emulates the speed of the 1991 Gulf War, pitch in at around $100 billion, equivalent to one percent of U.S. gross domestic product.
If the war gets bogged down, however, in street-to-street fighting to take Baghdad, costs would rise.
Throw in the nightmare of chemical or biological warfare, rebuilding the country and sticking around for the next 10 years to encourage Middle East stability, and some see an astronomical bill of $1.6 trillion for U.S. taxpayers.
That's just for America. With British forces likely to take part in any U.S.-led attack on Iraq, there would also be a heavy cost for Britain.
These numbers are not coming from the White House. U.S. President George W. Bush, who wants to cut taxes, has remained silent on a subject that could hurt this key goal.
..........

Nor do the numbers include grants for key allies Turkey or Israel which stand to receive $6 billion and $4 billion respectively from Washington. And don't forget Jordan, promised over $1 billion, or Egypt which wants access to U.S. export markets.
All of this is to be financed on top of a U.S. deficit which Bush already projects at a record $304 billion this year and $307 billon in fiscal 2003/2004.
..........
**********
Misetich

US debt to the penny is $6.4 trillions and growing in gargantulan proportion - Service Costs are not included in current year deficits and neither are many off-budget items

$7 trillions at the end of 2003 is not farfetched

How long will foreigners keep on providing credit ad infinitum?

All On Boar The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?

Just caught a little of the report on Fox,it seems that Kuwait are shutting down some of their oilfields in order to protect them from any action Iraq may make in coming War. This should make oil prices go even higherIt would seem that war is very close. White Hills

http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=2326462≠wsType=usDollarRpt&menuType=currenciesSnip:
Tue March 4, 2003 07:26 PM ET
0018 GMT -- Dollar faltering across the board in early Asia after U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said he was not concerned about its fall in last two weeks. -- Snow's apparent indifference to dollar's weakness shocked bulls who have been betting Washington is keen to maintain strong dollar policy when it appears to start countdown on war in Iraq. -- Dollar plunging to four-year lows against euro and Swiss franc and three-year low versus Australian dollar. -- Euro rises as high as $1.0986, up about a full cent from $1.0885/90 in late U.S. trade. --
********
Misetich

The strong US $ policy in unsustainable as CB's 16,000 tons of gold has vanished in thin air. Thanks Sector

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?

Young fellow, you'll excuse a little banter from an elderly guy!

Sometimes I do find your remarks vs some posters a bit abrasive. That's not the problem, as the reality is that your stance is a bit shortsighted.

I'm pretty sure that MK has not designed this great forum to advance his biz alone - as biz comes anyway to the fair dealers in a market bein' short of fair and of reality, of course!

I will conclude my last post ... with the best wishes for CPM/USA Gold to further succeed.

... as I sign off cb2

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/ap/20030305/ap_on_re_mi_ea/us_iraq_military&e=1&ncid=

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1450Warren Buffett's warning about stocks and
derivatives sparks more interest in gold.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1451Newmont's overhedged Yandal mine, acquired
from Normandy, is worth more dead than alive.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

http://www.portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/03/05/wiran05.xml&sSheet=/news/2003/03/05/ixworld.htmlsnippet:

Iran has always firmly denied developing a secret nuclear weapons programme, but the Isfahan plant would be an essential piece in a chain of installations that go towards producing the enriched uranium essential for atomic armaments. The plant would process uranium from nearby mines, and the resulting gas would then be enriched at a plant in the town of Natanz. Uranium must be enriched for use in nuclear reactors to generate electricity. But highly enriched uranium is a key ingredient for weapons.
_______
N Korea and Iran are working fast now to build an atomic bomb.

Dinner is served. Opps, no it isn't. Sorry. I thought the
meals were ready. Oh here it is. Nope, sorry. Wait. It's
coming. No it's not. Look, the cook is signalling. Your
dinner is just seconds away. On second thought, that was
the janitor. Oh. How about this. You could sit closer to
the kitchen. At that table. No. They're Turks. They said
no. But the Persians might let you.... No, they want to
come sit with you. Well, dinner is served. Almost. Not
right now. But Here it is, practically. But not now. Soon
however. Tonight. In just a few seconds. What? The butcher
won't cut the meat? Fish then. No fish? How about a salad.
Sorry, the gardener quit. The cashier's gone home? You
can't speak to the manager, you are the manager. In fact,
you own the restaurant. No, I just work here. Your meal
will be ready soon. In fact it's ready now. Here it is. No.
Sorry. Gee. Aren't you glad this isn't a war? If someone
was shooting at us we'd be in trouble.

My guess *****377.7*****
I'm hunkering down and surrounding myself with a fort of AU. Just got back from a long trip to London and Tunisia. Very interesting as I'm exchanging my U$ for L's and e's; loosing 5% for not having switched out of U$ before leaving. They prefer U$ over Dinars, but the spread was better for L's and e's... I grinned and beared it, WHAT? I was going to kavitch, with my knowing the overabundance of U$'s floating around.

My travel style is to get in with the 'sheeple', and find out what they think... I'm humbled to know that it's the American leaders that aren't liked... everywhere I went, Americans were basically liked, even with the war-ness going on in their minds.

Happy to be home, a little more enlightened.

roccoco

Chris,

Buffett wilder than Murphy? Ho ho ho (very good laugh), not wishing to heap scorn on Murphy, of course, who I believe has done a remarkable job in publicising gold's "manipulations", (who was it who said "No publicity is bad publicity!" or was it "Any publicity is good publicity!"). Buffett, though candid and frank, is the most measured of men. His new assessment of the markets and derivatives in particular will carry an enormous weight in the investment community, IMO.

Buffett and gold? Someone on this forum about six months ago (??? was it Sir Belgian) posted an interesting analysis of why Buffett chose silver over gold. I would like to re-read that analysis, which I thought was good at the time. But how to locate it easily without a search facility???

Cheers

:-)

Sundeck

Good summary of impending dinner, I'm glad I don't have to do the dishes! (I hope.)

:-)

http://www.usagold.com/hall/haiku.html...because we all need a little gold now and zen.
:-)

R.

The cost of a prolonged Iraq war at around 1.6 trillion dollars.

The key word is DOLLARS, not francs, Euro's, yen, but dollars.

Yes, they will be worth less than they are now, but they will be in use.

Pizz

Randy, you're BRILLIANT!! What a great idea, and so nicely presented! THANK TOU!!

Mr.Gresham sums it up....

Randy starts something
Amateurs spin out true gold
Hall of Fame beckons.

Thanks. I appreciate your enthusiasm, but I am hardly worthy of your high praise.

Cut and paste, cut and paste, format, upload to server...


For your future reference, the permanent link to these haikus can always be found on the Hall index page.

R.

Hi Chris Powell, Since you started a fun --Who is wilder--
contest, I vote for this fellow.

Why do central banks do what they do?
Author: Jim Sinclair
The answer: To depress the rising price of gold and to obtain in exchange depreciating dollars. Also, because it is OPM = "other people's money" and for political reasons. It may well be that but more than likely they will for now hold the depreciating dollars in the form of depreciating treasury instruments for political reasons.

I think half my beef with Jim and Bill is that I used to look to them for insight. But, if Jim and Bill want to play
teacher, it is disapointing to say the least to see the complete lack of comprehension of what and why Central Banks do what they do.
AND, having that misunderstanding as thier cornerstone, All actions and thoughts based on that wrong foundation make thier teaching destructive. And, self importance finds a way to take root. Not a desirable outcome.

You know, the issue of WHY really needs to get a review.
For Jim and Bill to come to the ideas of "it is political reasons" and "enemies" is, to be nice, a plateau. Well, time to keep advanceing in understanding and move on up in clearly seeing. Look, I guess it is ok with me if Misetich
wants to continue to see the iraq issue only as "the Iraqi oil rape", what the heck, he is only posting here.
But, Jim and Bill are trying to play teacher and leader and
....well, maybe I should not try asking ME for adjectives to describe what they are doing !
But, since they are doing that, I am asking for someone from your side to try to get those guys to open up to learning more about WHY the central banks do what they do.
What are they trying to do, WHY they dont do what WE think they should do.
Hey, we tried painting them as small minded, villans, stupid, greedy, worse.
Any chance of a fresh look? Any chance of growth?

Zenidea,

I must apologize, I was unable to dechiper your message completely. Would you be good enough to translate?

Yes, what I posted was speculation, but there are certainly enough coincidences to make it fall in the "interesting" category.

http://www.bloomberg.comDollar Pares Loss After U.S. Treasury Clarifies Snow's Comments
By John Brinsley
Tokyo, March 5 (Bloomberg) -Excerpt:
"The dollar pared a loss after a spokesman said Treasury Secretary John Snow hasn't withdrawn his support for the U.S. currency, seeking to clarify remarks Snow made that sent the dollar to a four-year low against its European counterpart.
The dollar traded at $1.0958 against the euro at 9:42 a.m. in Tokyo, from $1.0925 late yesterday in New York. It fell as low as $1.0986, the weakest since March 19, 1999 after Snow said he was ``not particularly concerned�� about the U.S. currency, which has dropped 20 percent in the past year against the euro. The dollar was also at 117.35 yen, from 117.65 yen, having been as low as 117.13.
``Secretary Snow made the administration�s position on the dollar very clear at his Senate confirmation hearing,�� Treasury spokesman Tony Fratto said, referring to a statement Snow made more than a month ago favoring a strong dollar...."

Will you please take those YOYO's away from SPOT and SPIKE !
<;-)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s&w=10&t=l&a=2And Mikal...it continues to slip slide away into the abyss.

Every year about this time the subject of the Japanese and their deposits being threatened by the decreasing amounts of protection from the goverment is brought up. I understand that this year it will acheive zero protection. Can anyone enlighten and sorry in advance if this has already been discussed

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=3Okay Sir Gandalf, no yoyo's...how about a trampoline? ;o)

Dollar Bill,

sorry but your handle screams your book (bias) so loud that you are hard to hear.

have you read Ed Griffins work (among others), "Creature From Jeckyll Island?

i'd like to believe in your good intentions, but my experience through this currency war epoch strongly suggests i tune you out. not that you'll notice or care (nor should you), i just don't need any distractions as i cross the frail bridge which extends over the "chasm of economic chaos", on a chariot of gold.

chao

Re: Your latest "beefs": "...make their teaching destructive."
"...total lack of comprehension"
"...self-important"
According to your post, "our sides" two "wild" men warrant the above dirt for no other reason than that they plainly explain the actions of bankers.
Your accusations would be nothing more than the blunt weapon of fear, denial and desperation, if they did not also speak for yourself with such obvious irony.
Thank you and bring a feral friend next time!

Yesterday, at March, 4, 2003, Japanese Government budget for 2003 fiscal year was passed at Congress, it is nearly $693 billion USD, and the tax income is only $385 billion USD, so that the new issued government bond is nearly $308 billion USD, and this is 44.6 percent of the annual expenditure. I believe that Japanese Government budget is substantially bankruptcy.
The total government deficit is $ 5.8 trillion USD, and this is nearly 137 percent of Japanese GDP. At present, Bank of Japan holds Japanese Government Bond nearly $ 709 billion USD equivalent. BOJ is the top Government Bond Holder.
The yield of Japanese Government Bond is 0.76 percent or lower at present, and this is the lowest level in the world history. If the yield of Japanese Government Bond is reversed, BOJ will be the worst loser of 2003 or 2004 in the world. But at the current Forex market, Japanese Yen is evaluated very higher, and BOJ ironically intervenes in order to sell a Yen and buy a dollar.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen.
D-Ani.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Profit From The Paper Chase With a Gold or Silver Paperweight

So if you believe in gold and silver fundamentals and want to invest in physical, pay cash and take delivery. This means if you're buying in the futures market that you pay cash and take delivery. This takes supply off the market and makes it harder for the Goliaths to leverage their paper positions when delivery is demanded. Their enormous short positions are predicated on the fact that buyers settle in paper or don't demand delivery. Like fractional reserve banking, their strategy falls apart when there is a run on the banks. The only way the derivative pyramid can work is if you play their paper game. It doesn't work when contracts are settled by physical delivery. So if you are buying physical, take possession.

You don't have to be a major player to buy gold and silver bullion. You can start out small at your local coin shop (or here at Centennial Precious Metals � USAGOLD � Black Blade). You can buy gold coins, junk bags of silver, silver rounds or ten ounce bars of silver. It is probably easier to buy gold coins because of the current cost of gold. You can do so monthly and average your cost or quarterly whenever funds are available. The important point is even small stones will work to slay the giant. Besides, owning gold and silver coins or bars give you the added pleasure of admiring their beauty.


Black Blade: An "interesting" twist on the precious metals market using a religious analogy. As someone here once asked about being able to buy gold or silver but having limited funds. Dollar cost averaging is one way to slowly build a position over time. I suppose that the "Small Order Desk" here is still open. Randy, MK, Castle Guards?

How about these photos they take of these ''terrorist''these guys look like ten miles of michigan highway.Thats pretty bad for those of you who have never had the pleasure of driving in michigan.

Central banks do what they do because they are in collusion and are taking their orders from someone at the Fed. Otherwise gold would be at a much much higher price.My goodness, man, wake up!

http://www.usagold.com/announcement/SmallOrderDesk.html
Link to small order desk above for those who wish to slowly dollar cost average into a pile of portfolio insurance.

- Black Blade

RE: ElGordo (3/4/03; 18:44:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98900)
Iran opens nuclear plant for enriched uranium
snippet:

Iran has always firmly denied developing a secret nuclear weapons programme, but the Isfahan plant would be an essential piece in a chain of installations that go towards producing the enriched uranium essential for atomic armaments.

Me: Will someone exlain to me what the heck Iraq and Iran need nuclear power plants for, when they're practically floating in oil?

As the kids say, "Duh!~"
Simply

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2817995.stm
Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction

Snippit:

The rapidly growing trade in derivatives poses a "mega-catastrophic risk" for the economy and most shares are still "too expensive", legendary investor Warren Buffett has warned. The world's second-richest man made the comments in his famous and plain-spoken "annual letter to shareholders", excerpts of which have been published by Fortune magazine. The derivatives market has exploded in recent years, with investment banks selling billions of dollars worth of these investments to clients as a way to off-load or manage market risk. But Mr Buffett argues that such highly complex financial instruments are time bombs and "financial weapons of mass destruction" that could harm not only their buyers and sellers, but the whole economic system.

Black Blade: It is "interesting" isn't it? Investment banks are essentially saying "the risks are too great for us to handle, so be a pal and buy our risk". The ultimate "greater fool" theory. Hmmm�

Not long ago Warren Buffett and his partner Charlie Munger referred to derivatives as "toxic waste" and "sewage" adding that it was an insult to sewage.

The goals of central banks as components of government......are the same with respect to unbacked paper currency.

Their mission is to convince populations that paper has value greater than its true value. Sinclair is an expert in gold market issues and Bill Murphy has provided a forum to expose the manipulation of gold markets by central banks and their acolytes. Are they sinners?

In order to provide substance to paper currency there are two and only two things a government can do (1) It can produce goods and sell them at a profit or if unable to produce, it can (2) sell its gold to hide the recognizable weaknesses of that currency.

The core of the situation is the inherent competition between paper currency and gold.

The Western central banks have been forced to sell their gold in large tonnages because their respective countries have deteriorating real productivity combined with an artificially rising standard of living.

The banks and hence, governments have been burning their furniture to stay warm. Hedonically speaking they have been making $1,000 computers and counting them as $15,000 worth of GDP because they have "faster processors". There are reams of Bureau of Economic Statistical "Price deflators" all combining to project the lie of American Productivity. Pretty much the same tunes in EuroLand.

If bringing these facts to light as Jim Sinclair and Bill Murphy are doing is wrong to you and makes you unhappy then perhaps the needed golden lessons are on your part.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmTb4xRpVS5TLiBF
Snippit:

Washington, March 4 (Bloomberg) -- To hear Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Treasury Secretary John Snow tell it, the U.S. recovery is being held back by war jitters and the economy may thrive once the standoff with Iraq is resolved. The unwillingness of companies to invest or hire and the history of the 1990-91 Gulf War suggest they may be wrong. Factory use hasn't rebounded from the almost two-decade low reached in December 2001 and probably won't even after the conflict ends, some executives and economists say. A sounding of 1,200 members of the National Federation of Independent Business found that only 8 percent cited ``the political environment'' as a reason not to expand. Getting the war over quickly may ease anxiety, ``but I don't think it's going to make that big a difference'' for the economy, said Harry Kraemer, chairman and chief executive officer of Baxter International, the world's biggest blood-treatment maker. ``There is overcapacity if you look across most of the basic industries,'' Kraemer said, and job-creation has lagged.

Black Blade: As I pointed out before the problems with the economy are not simply going to magically disappear with a resolution to the Iraq situation. If anything the Iraq war II could even make things worse as the cost will add significantly to the rising US deficit and public debt picture. The difference this time is that we are "already" in a deepening global recession with no light at the end of tunnel.

I bumped into an interesting piece of data in "The Dines Letter 2003 Annual Forecast Issue". I thought it might be worthwhile to make the answer into a question.

Question: What was the best performing Index/commodity in the US markets in 2002??

(I will post the official answer in an hour or so.)

http://www.accessatlanta.com/ajc/epaper/editions/today/business_e346f3487379d16e002d.html
Snippit:

Higher fuel prices are creating two classes of transportation companies: Those that can pass along some of the increased cost and those that can't. Big companies like United Parcel Service and Roadway already are sharing the pain with customers. UPS on Monday raised its fuel surcharge to 1.5 percent from 1.25 percent. Freight hauler Roadway has a surcharge that runs 6.5 percent or 8.5 percent, depending on whether a customer can fill part or all of a truck.

Black Blade: Higher energy costs are just starting to work through the "food chain" and the costs will eventually be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services. Last month's high PPI (15%+ annualized) will soon show up in the CPI data. The slow economic growth and higher inflation is looking more and more like the stagflationary 1970's.

Look what Alan Greenspan knew and understood about fiat currency, way back in 1966. He knew than that a variable currency represented theft, as did Thomas Jefferson.

"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966.

Although Alan works for "them" now, you can see that he is not oblivious to the truth.

How 'bout you?

http://www.abcnews.comFed's Parry: More Room To Ease Again
By Victoria Thieberger March 4, 2003
PALO ALTO, Calif (Reuters) -Excerpts:
"A Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday low inflation gives the central bank leeway to ease monetary policy again if necessary, even if the economy faces risks from a robust recovery down the road.
"If it were called for we still have room to give a boost to the economy, even in the face of some upside risks, because core inflation is low and trending downward," said Robert Parry, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, in a speech to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in Palo Alto, California.....
Greenspan has also said that if the economy remains weak once the war uncertainty lifts, the central bank would not hesitate to easy monetary policy once again.
Already the Fed's benchmark funds rate stands at 1.25 percent, its lowest level in more than four decades, as it has battled to restore a solid recovery from recession. The Fed last cut rates by half a percentage point in November....."

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20030304-061047-7716rSnip;



Putting the three elements together, Greenspan said the Fed calculates that "the amount of previously built-up equity extracted from owner-occupied homes last year, net of fees and taxes, totaled $700 billion ... or more than 10 percent of estimated equity at the beginning of the year."

This sum is enormous, as large as Bush's 10-year stimulus plan -- and all of it entering the economy in one year.

All this should raise a question in our mind as to what will happen to domestic demand in the United States when house prices cease to go up and up. Greenspan gives the danger a brief mention, in a typically Greenspanesque, non-ringing phrase. A slowdown in the housing boom will have the effect of "possibly notably lessening support to household purchases of goods and services."

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Second Snip;

The excess capacity built up when the U.S. stock market was booming and the drag from it now that the market has burst explain why the US economy is frail today. The house price boom has helped to offset that frailty. But because it, too, is something false, another episode of wealth generated by inflation, its medium-term impact will be negative.

There is a symmetry to booms and busts. As house prices have spiraled up Americans have sold assets for much more than they paid for them. As house prices come down, Americans will find the opposite.

The house price boom is troubling. As house prices fall in nominal or real terms for some years, another strongly negative influence will weigh on the U.S. economy. An excess of cheap money medicine from Greenspan in the past two years makes the economy more vulnerable to a prolonged slump. America's imbalances are getting worse, not better.

And as more Americans own homes than stocks, the house price boom could do more harm than the boom and bust of the stock market.

Greenspan has let a second bout of asset price inflation build on his watch. Don't expect him to be the first to recognize it.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$



Toolie; I am reminded of a story a friend tells. A relative of his, back during a '30's bank run, owned a home that had $80 remaining on the mortgage. When the bank called in the loan, he thought no problem. He had $100 on deposit in the same bank. He told the bank just take the money out of his savings account. The problem was all deposits were de-valued by 75%. His $100 was now worth $25. He lost the house!

As the "BONE PILE" grows alot of this housing debt will default. Many middle class folks are bound to become homeless and penniless. What a shame!

So there's these couple guys in the middle of the crowded theater and they're saying things like "fire" and putting up smoke. So these guys haven't thought enough of the exits, like are there any or or where they are.

I see your beef, but I think the talking and smokepuff is too small for any trouble to come of it because the crowd doesn't notice them at all. Not that it makes reckless behavior any more excusable though.

Let them have their fun. The way I see it more good could come of it than bad, even if these guys don't know anything about evacuating a room.

When they make their fuss all the time a good building superintendent who does know about evacuation might speed up his exit renovations because he's vigilant about this kind of mischief even if the crowd looks like they'll never pay attention to those rascals.

Then one day when an evacuation is needed it will go smoothly. Two guys might congratulate each other saying they saved everyone, even if they finally started a fire in order to get the people to leave. Ha! I don't care about all that as long as the superintendent did his thankless job and has the doors working. Live to tell about it, that's my motto.

I guess that's a long way of saying how we can be made better off by someone pointing out a system problem or vulnerability even if its vulnerability is by their own meddling hands. (They say it's hard to make anything foolproof because fools are so ingenious!) The good service is done by calling attention to the vulnerability to avoid a catastrophe even if they don't know exactly what it is or how to fix it. It's great when a child passenger can point out road hazard. Who cares if he's too young to drive and not behind the wheel? Everyone should try to contribute something that helps because nobody can do it all, all the time.

http://bogart-tribute.net/sounds.shtmlto Fred C. Dobbs?

The power of gold to drive men mad, even, or especially, after they've found it? Having conquered the lifeless soil, they have nowhere left to turn, but on each other?

Well, I always remember Bogey, growing more and more paranoid of his partners. "Oh, so that's it!"

So I found you these clips. All the short Bogeyisms, and Treasure of the Sierra Madre is all the way at the bottom of the page.

Talk about treasure! Never knew this one was the source of the "we don't need no steenking badges" line. LOL!

Also contains "Everything's clear now", "What a dirty, filthy mind you've got", and "Let's call it quits."

Go easy on each other, we're gonna be around a long long time. Or not. Gold doesn't care. It's like those stars twinkling cold up there...so beautiful, so impartial.

Best index/commodity return in 2002 per Jim Dines?

124% Dines silver stock average
40% Dines gold stock average
24% Gold bullion
22% Planinum bullion
5% Silver bullion
-3% American stock exchange
-12% Dow transports
-17% Dow industrials
-23% Mutual funds (domestic equity)
-23% S&P 500
-26% NASDAQ
-27% Dow utilities
-43% IW internet index
-47% Palladium bullion


While I'm at it ... best returns in 2001

64% Dines silver stock average
11% Dines gold stock average
1.4% Gold bullion
-0.13% Silver bullion
-5.6% American stock exchange

.............................

I do not know what stocks Dines includes in his silver and gold stock indexes. In the case of silver, I suspect the group collectively known as the silver seven. In the case of gold, I suspect a large basket of gold miners including hedgeres and South African shares.

I do not take the Dines Letter but I have been a long time advocate here of .... leaning heavily on the investment recommendations of the old proven market professionals rather than formulating your own investment strategy. I listen very closely to: The Aden Sisters, Jim Dines, Richard Russell, Bob Chapman, Jim Puplava, Doug Casey and a few others. Last year at the San Francisco Gold Show, one of the pro's said, "The amateurs know the rules (of investing) but the pro's know the exceptions."

Everyone here, keep up the good work!

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=2326078snippet:

"All of a sudden -- after all he has said about the house price topic -- to say home prices could recede, I think struck people, at least those who follow this sort of thing, as stunning," said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders.

"Greenspan's comments showed there is a genuine nervousness about housing," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Corp. "And the rise in the activity and price of housing has resembled the technology and telecoms bubble."
__________
Greenspan changes his tune on housing. Amazing

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/05/politics/05ECON.html?ex=1047445200&en=09eba9dcb9b9dab3&ei=5062∂ner=GOOGLEASHINGTON, March 4 � The federal deficit is growing much more quickly than expected, even before Congress takes up President Bush's tax-cutting proposals and without factoring in the costs of a war in Iraq, Congressional analysts have concluded.

Analysts for the Republican-controlled House Budget Committee have raised their estimates of this year's budget shortfall by about $30 billion, some 15 percent beyond the forecast that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office issued only five weeks ago.
__________
Seek a safe haven in a perfect storm.
Got Gold?

http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1046847974nL05486859&tit=Swiss%20franc%20gains%20on%20dollar,%20SNB%20reiterates%20concern&type=indicator&ling=ENHEADLINE: Swiss franc gains on dollar, SNB reiterates concern

ZURICH, March 5 (Reuters) - The Swiss franc's rise against the dollar continued in early Wednesday business as repeated jawboning by the Swiss central bank failed to keep investors from seeking the franc's perceived safety amid rising fears of a war in Iraq.

...A spokesman said the central bank was monitoring the Swiss franc's level closely but declined to discuss any potential consequences for monetary policy the franc's rise may have.

..."It seems plausible that the SNB intervenes on markets only verbally until the Iraq crisis is settled," UBS Warburg wrote in a note. "Still, the SNB seems to have established enough credibility with investors that they would use more drastic measures to weaken the franc if needed."

-----(see full text at url)------

"...measures to weaken the [insert currency here] if needed." Such is the fate of a national currency when the choice is perceived as a tradeoff between manipulating the currency for full employment versus strong savings.

Paper seems always fated to dwindle to serve the quest for social agendas.

On the other hand, in theory and practice, you should be able to hold gold with confidence as your form of strong savings. You'll never see mother nature intervene with policy measures to weaken its value in any occasion where the ecosystem happens to be slumping...

R.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Globally equities markets are awash in red. A general lack of confidence in global equities markets has indices falling tonight. Meanwhile gold steadily grinds higher.

- Black Blade

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures slip lower, the USD is falling off a cliff, oil is rising back above $37.bbl, NatGas drifts lower on expectations that temperatures will moderate in spring (go figure), and Gold remains strong.

- Black Blade

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=2326887PALO ALTO, Calif (Reuters) - A Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday the central bank has leeway to cut interest rates again if necessary if the economy falters, even though there is a possibility of stronger growth.

"If it were called for we still have room to give a boost to the economy, even in the face of some upside risks, because core inflation is low and trending downward," said Robert Parry, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, in a speech to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in Palo Alto, California.

Parry's comments underscored the central bank's willingness to get growth back up to full speed as the economy now faces a barrage of new difficulties tied to a possible war with Iraq, including uncertainty about the duration of a conflict and how long energy prices will stay high.

The Federal Reserve interest rate committee meets again on March 18, and most economists expect it will wait until some of the uncertainty about possible war and its effect on the economy clears before making any change in interest rates.

The Fed has already slashed rates 12 times over the past two years, taking the federal funds rate to a four-decade low of 1.25 percent.
__________
Canada just raised interest rates because inflation was
rising to about 5%. Strange, no inflation in the US.

http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/print.asp?ArticleID=79390"Political Will" - If I correctly recall a certain old friend of this fine forum namely "FOA/TG" & "ANOTHER" spoke extensively and advised that the tech analysis and historical trading data would be useless when "Political Will" and Its' momentum changed, Yes/NO?

I think much of this storey has been discussed here, however is it not so very interesting to see this "stuff" slowly flowing into the main stream media.

This Gold/Oil & EURO v US$ & Iraq thingie is wild and about to get crazy.

Cheers "S"

snip:

"But that isn't the whole story. Not only does the Bush administration want Iraq's oil, even more importantly it also wants to ensure that the fiat dollar remains the only currency used for its purchase. Iraq has already swapped dollars for euros, Iran is currently considering a change over and so is Russia. If the other Opec countries were to follow, the dollar would collapse dragging the already fragile U.S. economy to new depths."

"Currently all oil-consuming nations are forced to maintain large reserves of dollars with which to purchase petroleum, keeping the dollar at an elevated rate of exchange."

"With anti-American sentiment sweeping the planet, the Euro poses a very real threat to the financial dominance of the U.S. In recent times the dollar has lost 20 per cent of its value against the euro, a wake-up call to the US, which needs to nip this new trend in the bud."

"The Arab world is unsure how to proceed over the Iraq issue, no doubt wary of issuing a direct challenge to the Superpower. A watered down statement issued after the Arab League Summit held in Sharm Al Sheikh last Saturday stressed the Arabs' "total rejection of any attack on Iraq" and urged that Arabs "not participate in any military action aimed at Iraq or any Arab country's safety and territorial integrity."

"It did not warn what Arab League members would do in the case that the warmongers refused to heed their call."

"Political Will"

"President Bashar Al Assad of Syria, showing himself as never before to be his hard line father's son, believes that if the Arab world could unite and gathered enough political will, it could avert conflict. He told the summit: "Somebody mentioned that we cannot stand up to the United States (referring to the recent fatalistic statements of President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt). If this is the case, then why are we here?"

Snip

What an oxymoron!

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030305/55104_1.htmlSnip:

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 5, 2003--Current economic conditions will force 2.3 million households to delay retirement, according to the fourth annual Quicken� Fiscal Literacy Survey by Intuit Inc. (Nasdaq:INTU - News), a leading provider of business and financial management solutions for small businesses, consumers and accounting professionals. The survey polled Americans with annual incomes of at least $75,000 who actively manage their investments.
............
Most Investors Are "Staying The Course"

While nine out of ten respondents said their retirement portfolios have decreased in value, 34 percent say they plan to increase the money they have invested in retirement funds such as 401(k)s and IRAs. "Many investors are realizing that retirement accounts carry both a short-term and a long-term benefit," said Baie Netzer, Quicken investments editor.
.........
68% report they are not pulling out of stocks or bonds, but are staying the course. Despite this long-term commitment to equities, 73% of respondents feel it will take at least three years for their portfolios to reach the levels they saw at the peak of the bull market.
.......
Elderly Hit Hardest: 21 percent of those delaying retirement are between the ages of 55 and 64, with 18 percent being 65 or older. By comparison, only eight percent of those ages 35-44 and 15 percent of those 45-54 years of age expect to have to delay retirement.
Women Remain Cautious: Women (58%) are less likely than men (46%) to make changes to their investing and retirement strategies.
*********
Misetich
Interesting survey - "Most investors are staying on the course" - The course in the last 3 years is toward oblivion

These adamant bulls are in for a rude awakening - they still don't get it - the big bad stock market bear is only finished his/her first course - and after a little pause - the big bad bear is on the roll again -

Presumably these investors have taken steps such as refinancing to stay afloat waiting for the magic promised land of recovery

These irresponsible Gurus such as the US Treasury and Federal Reserve officials are leading investors toward the slaughter house with their "positive spin" - as the sitting toads doesn't realize the water temperature has risen and they're being cooked to death

The Perfect Financial Storm is here - and desperate attempts such as the planned Iraqui Oil Rape is not going to work as expected - The Hail Mary Pass being attempted is going nowhere - the costs of trying to police billions of muslims is going to fail

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?

I've been think about this a fair bit recently (not nearly as much as some other people, though, judging by the contest entries !! Some of those are so off the wall that they probably have some truth in them.) and was wondering just how big a stash 30 tonnes of gold would look like. I was expecting something impressive, but it turns out to be a cube only 116cm (45in) on the side. Wow ! That's dense !

PS. Believer, if you are going to make a shelter, I hope you are physically compact !!

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2003-03-04-newmoney_x.htmPosted 3/4/2003 11:43 PM
It's not that easy being green, so $20 bill is getting a dye job
By Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON �Excerpt: "In three weeks, the government will unveil a $20 bill that will feature updated images of Andrew Jackson and the White House and, in the biggest change, include color other than green for the first time in modern history.
There will be one predominant, yet subtle, color that will appear in the background and at least one other color. Other features of the $20 will also change, but many details are secret, including the actual colors to be used, until the official unveiling on March 27. The bill will enter circulation in the fall.
"The colors are subtle, but they're not invisible," Bureau of Engraving and Printing director Tom Ferguson said Tuesday. "It will certainly be different. But "it is traditional, it is still American."
The $20 was last updated in 1996, 70 years after the previous redesign, as part of an effort to outwit counterfeiters. Although the best counterfeits are still made on traditional presses overseas, the popularity of laser printers and scanners has made it easier for counterfeiters to try to copy bills.
The $20 is the most commonly counterfeited bill in the USA, and close to 40% of the money seized in this country in the last fiscal year was made with laser printers, up from less than 1% in 1995.
The plan is to update currency every seven to 10 years. After the new $20 is introduced, the $50 and the $100 will come next.
Some features from the $20 that entered circulation in 1998 will be kept, but it's unclear if they will be in the same location or style:
Color-shifting ink. The 1996 update included ink on the number in the lower right-hand corner that appears black if tilted one way and green if tilted another. The Secret Service says this has been the one feature counterfeiters have been unable to reproduce....."

Quite a formidable collection of Haiku! I enjoyed reading them again. Thanks for the effort.

http://www.etherzone/2003/pyne030503.shtmlA RECIPE FOR DISASTER
BUSH ADMINISTRATION'S POST-WAR PLAN
By: David T. Pyne
This week, the Bush Administration unveiled plans to station a force of 200,000 troops in Iraq for an indefinite period of time. Only the day before, General Eric Shinseki, the Chief of Staff of the Army declared that, "something on the order of several hundred thousand soldiers are probably a figure that would be required," to garrison Iraq after the war was ended. Both Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz responded by attacking General Shinseki and stating that his estimates "were wildly off the mark."
Retired Army Colonel David Hackworth has stated that virtually all the Joint Chiefs and top Pentagon brass oppose the Administration's plan to invade Iraq, an allegation which has been supported by various insider news reports over the past several months. Accordingly, Shinseki may have deliberately high-balled the number of troops that it would take to occupy Iraq to provide support to opponents of the war and allude to his continuing behind the scenes opposition to the Administration's plans for a new US invasion of Iraq. Previous estimates were that a force of "only" 75,000 troops would suffice. The latest rather conservative statement of the cost of war with Iraq and the immediate occupation provided by the US Department of Defense are that it would total $95 billion. With this latest revelation that 200,000 troops would be used to garrison Iraq indefinitely, it seems that this estimate would have to be revised substantially upward. Unofficial estimates including the cost of planned US funded reconstruction of Iraq which go as high as a trillion dollars may be more accurate.
The rationale for a permanent commitment of US forces to occupy Iraq, let alone an occupying army of 200,000 troops is visibly lacking and has yet to be explained by the administration. It seems that President Bush is intent on remaking the Middle East in America's image after all in a bid to make a name for himself in the history books. A permanent commitment of US troops on this scale has not been contemplated since the Cold War occupation of post-war Germany. For forty-five years, this massive commitment of US military forces in Europe consumed fully half of the US defense budget. Could an occupation of Iraq consuming as much as one-third of the US defense budget be justified? Could it be that the liberals are right that the Administration wants to secure permanent, imperial access to the oilfields of the second largest oil producing country in the world since the Democrats in the Senate refuse to allow him to develop our own ample reserves of oil here at home?
Some have alluded that this planned massive troop deployment might be aimed at affecting regime change in Iran, despite recent reports that it might already possess intermediate range nuclear missiles. However, the President declared 9-11 Islamist terrorist supporting Iran off limits to US military attack early last year and has since repeated that the US has no intent to attack Iran despite clear links to its support for Al Qaeda and equally despicable terrorists. This is after all not about fighting the soon to be defunct and in all likelihood soon to be lost war against terrorism. It is about fighting a war to "get Saddam." A US invasion of Iraq and ensuing indefinite occupation of its territory will serve to enflame the Middle East, incite further acts of terrorism against the US and make the current level of anti-Americanism there look tame in comparison. In short, a permanent occupation of Iraq is a recipe not for peace as recently proclaimed by the President but rather a recipe for perpetual war.
In his latest speech on his post-war plan for reshaping the Middle East delivered on February 26th at the American Enterprise Institute, a longtime neoconservative bastion, he stated that "the new government of Israel�will be expected to support the creation of a viable Palestinian state -- and to work as quickly as possible toward a final status agreement." Accordingly, even as the President is unflinching in his determination to invade and occupy Iraq whose links to terrorists are essentially limited to providing death benefits to Palestinian suicide bombers, he appears to be calling for the creation of what could potentially be a new terrorist-supporting state which could pose a dire threat to our greatest ally in the region--Israel. The creation of a Palestinian state and likely safe haven to terrorists and suicide bombers is in manifest opposition to Israel interests as has been stated by former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Once again, it seems that the President's plan to reshape the Middle East will do far more to fuel the fire of terrorism than it will do to counteract it.
In his speech, Bush invoked visions of World War II and the reconstruction that followed. The President, it seems, is attempting to refight World War II. For him Saddam is Hitler, Iraq is Nazi Germany and the alleged threat to the US posed by Iraq must be met with immediate and overwhelming force to liberate Iraq from that unique brand of secular tyranny known as Saddamism Iraq must be garrisoned indefinitely with nearly half of the United States Army even though the Army is already badly overstretched by its current commitments and troop deployments. Such an occupation would leave the US powerless to fight and win even one major war and our enemies would be left free to attack, overwhelm and occupy our allies on the Korean peninsula and elsewhere. Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld and his overly anxious chief of US conventional military disarmament, Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Steven Cambone are reportedly preparing to move forward with plans to cut the Army's already much downsized force structure by as much as 40% later this year. Such a draconian force cut combined with a massive US troop commitment in soon-to-be occupied Iraq could potentially leave the new American Empire without sufficient troops to even defend the US homeland from illegal border incursions, let alone fight new wars abroad. So much for homeland defense.
Secretary of State Colin Powell cited Bin Laden's recent tirade calling for all Muslims to rise up and attack the United States in defense of Iraq as further evidence of Al Qaeda's alleged ties to Iraq. In the same speech, bin Laden also attacked Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi government as "socialists" and "infidels". Interestingly, in a second audiotape aired by Al Jeezera, Bin Laden used the same term, "infidels" to describe Americans whom he exorted all Muslims to fight and kill. Accordingly, far from demonstrating a link between Saddam Hussein and Bin Laden, the tape seems to indicate that Bin Laden considers Saddam an enemy, which he equates with the would-be American invaders of Iraq. The purpose of the tape seems to demonstrate solidarity with the Iraqi people both against invading US forces and against secularist dictator Saddam Hussein.
Bin Laden's verbal denunciation of Saddam Hussein two weeks ago seems to indicate that he wants to see Saddam replaced, presumably by an Islamist leader like himself. He may get his wish since the planned smashing of Iraq and its military will likely result in a fracturing of that country into its three component parts�Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites�that will leave it and much of the Middle East wide open to Iranian, Shiite and thus Islamist control and influence. British intelligence and many senior US intelligence officials have pointed out that Saddam and Islamists in Al Qaeda and other Iranian-supported terrorist organizations are natural enemies and largely debunked alleged links between Saddam and Al Qaeda before President Bush's and British Prime Minister Tony Blair's politicization of their respective intelligence communities swung into full force.
Currently, Osama Bin Laden is relegated to hiding and has refrained from repeating the spectacular attacks of 9-11. He needs a provocation on the part of the US to fuel his terrorist organization building efforts. A US invasion of Iraq and subsequent indefinite large-scale US military occupation of Iraq would likely be Bin Laden's dream come true as terrorists recruits would flock to his anti-American standard and likely double or even triple Al Qaeda's numbers and funding....."

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlPlease see the latest UP-DATE at the LINK above !

QUEST -- The APRIL 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3J) SETTLEMENT Price on Thursday March 13, 2003: THE ENTRY DEADLINE is HIGH NOON Denver time on Tuesday 3/11/03 !!!!!!

ADDITIONAL QUEST -- AN ESSAY CONTEST IN ANSWERING (in more than 30 words) ....

"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . . . . . . . . . . . . ."

Prizes are to be awarded for each of the two QUESTS of this CONTEST !! (BUT, one need not enter the Essay Contest portion, if they do not want to "confess", and only state a "why" statement for their Prognostication.)

===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a "Discussion Statement" !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) APRIL 2003 Gold Contract (GC3J) on the date of Thursday, the 13th of March, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Tuesday, March 11th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY to accompany the Price prognostication,--- EITHER
1) A Statement of why you projected that price --- OR
2) enter the ESSAY Contest with an Answer completion of the confession ---

"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . . . . . . . . . . . . ."

===
THE PRIZES !!

The POG CONTEST rules are set forth below and the WINNING PRIZE will be a GOLDEN "Napoleon the First" (Bonaparte himself) French 20 Franc piece, with 0.1867 ounces of Gold, (and carried at many battles by --guess who), worth about $100. The two "Runners-up's" will each get an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(Rich, Did you see that?)

The "best, most clever, and most devastating" short ESSAY statement attached to the POG Prognostication, wins a The Netherlands GOLDEN "King" (King Willem) 10 Guilder gold coin containing 0.1947 ounces of GOLD, while the "Runner- up" gets an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(OK Rich, Did you see that?)
===
LET the CONTEST continue !
<;-)

Misetich
"68% report they are not pulling out of stocks or bonds, but are staying the course. Despite this long-term commitment to equities, 73% of respondents feel it will take at least three years for their portfolios to reach the levels they saw at the peak of the bull market."
68% not pulling out of stocks or bonds. This is why DJ must fall much further. Too many folks are still optimistic. CNN propaganda works well. More investors to be cleaned. Gold is well hidden from radar screen.
The head of New York FED about 1 years ago said categorical NO when asked by reporter if Gold Standard would be a possibility. Does anybody know if this hypocrite still occupies same seat???

P.S. Bribing Turkey did not work.

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlJoin the FUN and become wealthy at the same time !! <;-)
===
Just enter either or BOTH Portions of the new CONTEST, and WIN "FREE" Gold and/or Silver !!! To enter, you must have a Free "POSTING PASSWORD". BUT, IF you do not now have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD) --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK above ! He makes it easy and painless too. There WILL be FREE GOLD and Silver given away for the BEST ESSAY and most accurate Price Of Gold (POG) Prognostications.
<;-)

As the dollar has weakened the past couple days, so has gold strengthened, in roughly proportional measure.

The players seem cautious. Perhaps it is the uncertainty of war which makes men pause�..or perhaps it is mutual agreement among the big players to an orderly market.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!b50!g10!e5!a!h.02,.20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lo14!Lv25!Lw25!Lr14]IF I were a "CHARTIST", I would be putting on my "ROSY" spectacles.
<;-)

http://quote.yahoo.co.jp/q?s=8301.q&d=aySir Mr Gresham (12/13/02; 08:24:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 91489) presented the following article.
The Quintessential Inflation - The Great Weimar Inflation - Germany the Early Twenties

Julian D. W. Phillips
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/phillips121302pv.html

I am very interesting in this article, and comparing Weimar Mark vs Japanese Yen, and generating the next list.
Date Marks to the pound normalized coeff Date price of BOJ share normalized coeff.
1920 Dec. 258 100(percent) 1988.Dec.08 755,000 100(percent)
1921 Jan. 243 106.17
1921 Feb. 237 108.86
1921 March 244 105.74
1921 April 249 103.61
1921 May 247 104.45
1921 June 261 98.85
1921 July 278 92.81
1921 Aug 307 84.04
1921 Sep. 390 66.15
1921 Oct. 582 44.33
1921 Nov. 1,041 24.78
1921 Dec. 794 32.49
1922 Jan. 811 31.81
1922 Feb. 907 28.45
1922 March 1,246 20.71
1922 April 1,285 20.08
1922 May 1,294 19.94
1922 June 1,410 18.30
1922 July 2,200 11.73
1922 Aug. 5,074 05.08 2003.Feb. 45,500 6.026
1922 Sep. 6,502 03.97
1922 Oct. 14,146 01.824
1922 Nov. 32.146 00.8026
1922 Dec. 34,858 00.7401
1923 Jan. 83,190 00.3101
1923 Feb. 130,750 00.1973
1923 March 99,526 00.2592

According to the decline shape of Weimar Mark, current Japanese Yen is in the Disaster stage between 1922 July and 1922 August. The collapse of Japanese Government Bond will happen within a few months.

D-Ani

Your post #98953 looks interesting, but apparently the Japanese data was left off--or did you intend for the reader to fill it in? Tried the link, but my Japanese isn't good enough.

The Dollar Index Value of Gold [DIVG] is flat4-Mar-03 3.766
3-Mar-03 3.669
28-Feb-03 3.677
27-Feb-03 3.715
26-Feb-03 3.731
25-Feb-03 3.789
24-Feb-03 3.760
21-Feb-03 3.713
20-Feb-03 3.716
19-Feb-03 3.637
18-Feb-03 3.609
17-Feb-03 3.641
14-Feb-03 3.717
13-Feb-03 3.708
12-Feb-03 3.715
+++++++++++++++++++

The DIVG is the dollar price of gold divided by the Major Currency Dollar Index.

It is clear from this data that the true value of gold hasn't really changed at all since Feb12th. Therefore we are in a sideways transition. The blow-off spike to $388 was a margin increase phenomenon and is now under the influence of normal forces. Which is to say official central bank selling to manage its price.

Compare this with the Euro Index Value of Gold [EIVG].

4-Mar-03 2.97
3-Mar-03 2.95
28-Feb-03 2.99
27-Feb-03 3.03
26-Feb-03 3.03
25-Feb-03 3.06
24-Feb-03 3.06
21-Feb-03 3.02
20-Feb-03 3.01
19-Feb-03 3.00
18-Feb-03 3.00
17-Feb-03 2.99
14-Feb-03 3.04
13-Feb-03 3.01
12-Feb-03 3.10

The EIVG was up at 3.2 for many weeks. Therefore the purchase price for an ounce of gold is getting les expensive in Euro Land while things deteriorate in a macro economic sense over on this side of the big water.

These levels are changing this week by the looks of the Euro being up at 1.1 this morning. The next leg will be up for both the dollar index and the Euro Index Values of Gold and the putative war may be the launch date.

The gold cartel has worked very hard to get gold share investors, gold market speculators and institutions wrong-footed for the next move.

Ignore the gold media "Experts" such as L Kaplan and his ilk.

Read here, buy here.

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nation/200303/kt2003030417272311970.htmsnippet:

The warhead of a long-range missile test-fired by North Korea was found in the U.S. state of Alaska, a report to the National Assembly revealed yesterday.



- Haven't heard any news about this yet. Seems like a pretty big story to me. Enough to bring me out of the assembly of this fine crowd in a long time!

Thanks for the figures: good circumstantial evidence for price fixing.

Today the dollar index oscillated about 98.4 until near the close of the NY gold market, when it dropped to about 98.3.
During the same period, spot gold went from $356 to $354 to $352.60. Bruno is flexing his muscles.

http://www.etherzone.com/2003/pyne030503.shtmlRe: msg.# 98947
This is the correct link to the excerpted story. Thank you.

One thing I like about these charts at kitco and ino.com is if you get shocked by a sudden large fall in pog, just wait a few hours and it will look a lot smaller, as the vertical increments change from 50 cents to $1 or $2 or $5.

Another interesting item popped into my mailbox this morning (courtesy of Bill Bonner � DailyReckoning):

Michael O'Higgins is looking for a depression to begin soon...or to be already in progress. "Perhaps the greatest deflation and depression of all time," he told the Miami Herald over the weekend. O'Higgins, author of "Dogs of the Dow," predicted 3 years ago that stocks would lose half their value. Since then, the S&P 500 has fallen 41%. Now, he says, the damage is far from over. It could be worse than the period '29-'31, he continued, as today's depression would come "following the greatest speculative boom...of all time."

"The hangover may prove to be proportional to the binge," adds Warren Buffett.

So what do you do when you get a "Mauve Alert"? You move to gold, says O'Higgins, "because it's real money; because it has held its value for thousands of years, because it's not subject to manipulation by government or central bankers or dishonest corporate executives."

Even during the Great Depression, '29-'39, gold rose 69%. O'Higgins reportedly owns only one stock: Newmont Mining.

And this:

Maybe gold will go nowhere, of course. Maybe it will even fall in price. But what do we care? We buy it for insurance. No one complains that his wife doesn't get to cash in his life insurance policy. Likewise, if the price of gold doesn't go up...then, the U.S. economy has not gone to hell. We still have our jobs...our homes...our piggy SUVs...our snobby wines...


Black Blade: The equities markets don't look very healthy these days and as Warren Buffett (arguably the most successful investor of all time) commented there are few stocks that even spark a mild interest for him. We are in a long term secular bear market that will last several years. War and terrorism are a daily fact of life, "cheap energy" is a thing of the past, and rising inflation is about all the Fed has left in its arsenal. These are "interesting times".

Was that ANOTHER stout-hearted Knight I just caught a glimpse of riding off?
Adieu cb2...don't stray (too) far, and I41 will be keenly awaiting your safe return.

<<<< SNIP >>>>
**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com
---
Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
2/28/03 GC3J HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 OI = 105,993
3/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 OI = 104,153
3/04/03 GC3J HIGH = $354.9 low = $349.5 Settlement = $353.3 Change +$4.0 OI = 105,279
3/05/03 GC3J HIGH = $358.8 low = $352.3 Settlement = $353.2 -$0.1 OI = ?
===
Contest FIRST DAY, 2/28, Sir Kevin$ was "King of the Hill"
Contest SECOND DAY, 3/3, Sir Kevin$ was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!
Contest THIRD DAY, 3/4, Sir Zelts waw "King of the Hill" !!!
Contest FOURTH DAY, 3/5, Sir Zelts is AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!!
===
Less than SIX days to Enter the CONTESTS.
<;-)

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

The dollar has been continuously devalued without stop for the past 57 years. It has
not appreciated against goods and services once -- not even once -- in that entire time period.
There are periods when this policy has not been fully reflected in the price of gold.

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

Marie Ballard Ext 106

We look forward to your inquiry.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=535&ncid=535&e=5&u=/ap/20030305/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_us_iraq_88"Turkey's powerful military chief said Wednesday that the army backed the deployment of U.S. troops in the country for a war in neighboring Iraq."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-2455671,00.html
Snippit:

The gathering of the 57-member Organization of the Islamic Conference was the third high-level gathering in the region in a week aimed at trying to prevent a war - and the second to be marred by bitter, insulting exchanges. Arab and Islamic nations are divided on whether war can be averted while Saddam Hussein remains in power.

The spat broke out as the Iraqi vice president, Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, was delivering a scathing speech against Kuwaiti leaders, condemning them for ``treason ... and conspiracy with Zionism and colonialism'' for hosting U.S. troops.

He derided Kuwait's foreign minister, saying, ``Today, you see how in all swaggering and rudeness, he ... threatens Iraq's security at the core and calls on American troops to amass in his land -'' At that point, he was interrupted by an inaudible remark from Sheik Mohammed Sabah Al Salem Al Sabah.

Al-Douri retorted, ``Shut up you monkey. Curse be upon your mustache, you traitor'' - using a traditional insult to a man's honor.

``This is hypocrisy and falsehood,'' Sheik Mohammed shot back, in remarks aired live by Arab satellite television stations.

Kuwaiti Information Minister Sheik Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed leaped up and waved a small Kuwaiti flag.

The summit's host, Qatari emir Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, admonished al-Douri, telling him: ``You started your speech with a verse from the Quran saying, `Thou shalt be united by the word of God.'' The emir then moved on to the next speaker - from Afghanistan - saying, ``We are not here for such exchanges.''

Iraqi delegates left the room briefly until they were persuaded to return. ``The Iraqis always behave like this,'' Sheik Ahmed said.


Black Blade: Unity Summit eh? I saw this early this morning and at first I thought I didn't hear the translation correctly. I have to admit, these guys certainly have a way with words. It was rather funny though. I despise politicians but at times they do provide some comic relief. Meanwhile it appears that war is only days off now.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030305/economy_canada_reserves_3.htmlHEADLINE: Canada sells 15 pct of gold reserve on price surge

OTTAWA, March 5 (Reuters) - Canada sold 15 percent of its gold reserves last month as prices surged to 6-1/2 year highs and used the money to add to its higher-yielding foreign currency investments.

[["Higher-yielding" in the sense of any interest earned through lending/bonds, but not necessarily higher end value in terms of net capital appreciation. Hmph!]]

..."What we buy with the (gold) proceeds depends on...the available securities matching in the portfolio we follow," a finance official said.

Finance ministry figures released on Wednesday showed that the government sold 90,588 ounces of gold in February, leaving its holdings at slightly above 500,000 ounces. That is down from about 21 million ounces in 1980 before Canada's gold sales started.

...Canada's overall foreign reserves fell by $1.73 billion to $35.9 billion last month as Canada paid off a $2 billion global bond and made several other transactions such as raising euro and yen investments by $15 million each, finance ministry data showed.

Euro deposits and securities holdings of $14.26 billion in February are more than double their level of two years ago and are 40 percent of the total from 21 percent in February 2001.

-------(see url for full news)-------

The gold sales are probably conducted more on the basis of political justification than pure economic prudence. In that regard, it is noteworthy then that the dollar doesn't seem to be finding much favor as the paper of choice, however, the euro and yen being prime beneficiaries of the gold receipts.

The lesson here is that governments' holdings do not serve the individual directly. To benefit from gold ownership, you must take it upon yourself to hold reserves of the yellow metal personally. Then you alone can dictate when the reserves are either increased or liquidated to meet your needs, independent of the macro-politics of the day. As it should be.

R.

It's clear that we Americans must teach the ways of Political Correctness to these good folks. :)

Boilermaker

A couple of days ago someone asked why Iran would need nuclear power if they were swimming in oil. I have just finished reading a report entitled "Long Decline in Oil Sector Means Shrinking Role for Iranian Supply in �New World Order�, by Mansour S. Kashfi, a consultant with Kashex International and Assoc. Resource Consultants Inc. and former senior geologist with Iranian National Oil Co. 1971-1978. In short Iran is fast depleting its oil reserve and the apparently plan is to offset oil depletion with a domestic nuclear power program utilizing domestic uranium deposits in order to save oil for export and badly needed income. He states "�considering that domestic consumption of oil and gas is growing at a rate of about 5.2%/year, it is reasonable to conclude that by year 2018, there will be no (Iranian) oil to export". It should be noted that Iran has been cheating on OPEC quotas and is producing at capacity. In fact Middle East oil producers are operating at near full capacity even during this period of weak demand and as many producing countries have reached peak production. It also highlights why western nations are split over the Iraqi situation (war vs. no war) as each side is in a panic over declining oil supply. Once abundant "cheap energy" is unavailable the global economy will collapse.

- Black Blade

http://news.nasdaq.com/news/newsStory.aspx?&cpath=20030305\ACQCOM200303051618AFXNEWS_EN_COM_F_5277_05.htmHEADLINE: Forex - Dollar weaker in late New York on Iraq; Snow latest comment ignored

NEW YORK (AFX) - The dollar continued its slide against major currencies in late trade ... The US unit's losses, (dealers) said, were ... a continuation of yesterday's bearish sentiment following Treasury Secretary John Snow's statement yesterday that he is "not particularly concerned" about the dollar's decline since the G7 finance ministers meeting last month.

The market interpreted his comment as a shift from the administration's long-held strong dollar policy. To most traders, Snow's statement probably reflects the true attitude of monetary and fiscal authorities in the US.

...Meanwhile, Snow's latest comment today, supporting a strong dollar policy after flirting with a weak dollar stance yesterday provoked no market reaction.

"His latest comment was largely ignored by the market. He has lost credibility," said Larry Brickman, currency strategist at Bank of America. "The trade and current account imbalances are widening and can not continue to do so forever," he said.

--------(see url for full text)---------

Also covered in the text:

"Traders were also not reading too much into an expected rate cut by the European Central Bank tomorrow. Although they expect a slight knee-jerk impact on the euro, traders are skeptical the rate cut could weigh significantly on the currency."

Primary stock trend down... primary dollar trend down... call USAGOLD- Centennial for gold, nicely trending up.

R.

http://www.adn.com/24hour/business/story/793261p-5667873c.htmlHEADLINE: New Treasury chief signs next series of dollar bills

AP WASHINGTON (March 5) - With cameras whirring and clicking, a smiling Treasury Secretary John Snow signed his name with flair, relishing one of the perks of the job: signing his name on the nation's greenbacks.

Roughly 8 billion notes are made each year.

"What a great treat to be able to be here," Snow said. "Doesn't every American boy grow up wanting to have his name on the currency?" Snow quickly added that it is probably the dream of every girl, too. The room erupted in laughter.

...Snow used the signing ceremony to make a pitch for the president's tax-cut package. Swift congressional passage "will ensure that more of these notes stay in the pockets of the American family," Snow said.

-------(see url)------

We can only hope that these same American families see the writing on the wall and diversify their holdings to include gold. Call Centennial for knowledgeable and courteous consultation and assistance in placing your order for gold.

R.

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=2332421Snip:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The huge U.S. services sector slowed its pace of growth last month and the number of jobs in the sector fell, reinforcing views of a U.S. economy struggling with a hangover from the boom years and, now, fear of war.
The bad news for the services sector was countered to some degree by a separate report on Wednesday that showed the U.S. housing sector, a pillar of strength since the economy started softening nearly three years ago, remains robust.
............
Businesses, the Fed said, are also facing a profit squeeze due to the inability to charge customers for higher energy costs.
"We have estimated that for every $10 increase in oil prices, overall profits should fall by 7.5 percent in that quarter," Lehman Brothers economist Drew Matus said in a research note.
..........
Jobs in the services sector fell in February after a January gain, dimming a ray of hope for the overall economy. The ISM's employment index fell back under the critical 50.0 level to 49.0 from 50.3 in January.
******************
Misetich

Corporate profits are being squeezed by higher energy costs - more layoffs are looming on the horizon as the auto and housing industry are poised to slowdown and further corporate earnings disappointments and downward revisions will drive stock markets lower

The second phase of the big bad bear market is here - a 20 to 30% correction is to be expected from these lofty levels to adjust to expected earnings - within the next 6 months

Paper pushers are too optimistic and reality will bite them again and again

In the meanwhile smart investors who have added physical gold to their portfolio - are reaping the benefits of intelligent investing

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?

RE:Black Blade (03/05/03; 14:49:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98968)
Iranian Nuclear Power Project

A couple of days ago someone asked why Iran would need nuclear power if they were swimming in oil. I have just finished reading a report entitled "Long Decline in Oil Sector Means Shrinking Role for Iranian Supply in �New World Order�, by Mansour S. Kashfi, a consultant with Kashex International and Assoc.

Me: I asked. Thanks for the response. It certainly makes sense. Large infrastructure changes require long time frames....but I am still suspicous of the timing.
Simply

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1035778694650&call_pageid=968350072197&col=968705923364

Snip:
"
Barrick Gold Corp. commenced proceedings today in a libel suit against an American coin dealer that accused Canada's largest gold producer of conspiring to manipulate the price of gold.

Barrick is seeking damages of $200 million and a permanent injunction from the Ontario Superior Court preventing Blanchard and Co. and its CEO Donald Doyle from "repeating, disseminating, publishing or causing to be re-published" the alleged defamatory statements.

"We value highly our reputation for carrying on business in a proper, ethical and lawful manner and will not tolerate the dissemination of false statements that are harmful to our reputation, business interests and stakeholders," stated Barrick president and chief executive Greg Wilkins.

"

Sundeck:

Methinks they protesteth rather loudly...

Will it boil down to who has the most money?

http://www.mmorning.com/article.asp?Article=5044&CategoryID=6
Snip:

"
Iran's central bank has introduced measures designed to bring down soaring gold prices, including easing procedures for the import of gold and silver bullion, local media reports indicate.
The reports quote several officials as saying that Iranians were turning to gold amid continued uncertainty over Iraq and the volatility of foreign currency markets.
The fluctuation in domestic gold markets was due to a possible US attack on Iraq, which may jeopardize the free flow oil from the region, Commerce Minister Mohammad Shariatmadari suggested.
Iranian gold coins, a favorite for marriage portions, have risen in price from 650,000 to 800,000 rials (81.25 to 100 dollars) in the past two months.
"

Sundeck: 19% appreciation in two months on gold coins, not bad? Citizens in countries near the flashpoint preparing are preparing themselves.

http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=7255515&BRD=1817&PAG=461&dept_id=222087&rfi=6
Snips:

"
PHOENIX (AP) - Surging gold prices have sparked a new wave of gold fever in Arizona. Mining companies are making plans to open dormant gold mines, and individual prospectors are heading for the hills armed with gold pans and metal detectors.
"If these prices are sustained, we could see considerably more activity," said Al Burch, a manager with the Bureau of Land Management in Phoenix.

....

From 1992 to 1999, annual gold production in Arizona declined from 7,000 kilograms valued at $74 million to 700 kilograms valued at $7.1 million. Since 1999, production has been negligible.

But the rising prices have generated renewed enthusiasm for precious metals.

.....

In Nevada, the world's third-largest gold producer behind South Africa and Australia, geologists are working again and the assay offices are busy. Nevada produced almost $2.5 billion in gold last year.

"People are coming back," said Allan Coyner, director of the Nevada Mineral Division.

Mining companies are not the only ones catching gold fever.

At A&B Prospecting and Mining Equipment in Mesa, the increased price is "all anyone is talking about," says Tom Van, who works at the prospecting outfitter when he is not hunting for gold. A&B's business has increased along with the price of gold, he said.

"

Sundeck: Looks like an outbreak of gold fever in the west...could be fatal...looks like fiat vaccination is wearing off.

:-)

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=2332935A FADING RAY OF HOPE?

Jobs in the services sector fell in February after a January gain, dimming a ray of hope for the overall economy. The ISM's employment index fell back under the critical 50.0 level to 49.0 from 50.3 in January.

With a sharp drop in manufacturing employment in the ISM's influential factory sector survey on Monday, analysts said the overall U.S. employment report due on Friday might turn out much weaker than expected.

I don't know why INO is showing gold down, because spot gold is up $.50 from the NY close. But I promised myself I wouldn't post small changes in price, so I'll let this one slip and then it's up to the others!

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmZULRQcRmVkJ3Mg
Snippit:

Washington, March 5 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy ``remained subdued'' over the past two months as concern over war with Iraq constrained consumer and business spending, the Federal Reserve said in its most recent survey of regional economic conditions, known as the beige book. ``Aside from housing, just about every sector is struggling right now,'' said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial, a division of First Tennessee National Corp., and the largest underwriter of bonds issued by U.S. agencies such as Fannie Mae. ``The underlying state of the economy is not encouraging.''

Some of the Fed's business contacts expressed concern about the rising costs of energy and insurance, which they are unable to pass along to consumers, the beige book said. The 58.6 percent rise in oil prices over the past twelve months is having ``wide- ranging'' economic effects throughout the country, the Fed said, ranging from higher raw materials costs to increases in shipping costs. The Fed banks reported mixed construction activity, and slow business loan demand. Delinquencies and defaults rose slightly on some household loans, a few districts reported. Some New York Fed district banks tightened credit standards while lenders report an ``upturn in delinquency rates on consumer loans,'' the Beige Book said.

The Fed's Open Market Committee reduced its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point on Nov. 6 to 1.25 percent, the lowest rate in 41 years. Growth slowed in the fourth quarter to a 1.4 percent annual rate from 4 percent in the previous three months. Growth for the year totaled 2.4 percent, about 1 percentage point below what economists estimate as the economy's potential growth rate.


Black Blade: Certainly not a ringing endorsement of the so-called "economic recovery". Truth is consumer spending is slowing down and that is putting Wall Street on notice that the economy is trouble. Yet the spin will be to put the light on what can be twisted into some kind of positive statement. It is "confession season" again and so far the nubers have been horrible as more companies are warning of lower earnings (or greater losses). Here too we will hear the typical spin as analysts quickly lower earnings estimates so that companies can "beat the street". This recession is getting uglier all the time.

(Bloomberg) -- North Korea may be preparing to test fire a mid-range ballistic missile capable of striking Japan, the Kyodo news agency reported, citing an unnamed U.S. government official.

The launch of a ballistic missile would break a pledge made by North Korea to Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in September that it would maintain a freeze on missile tests. Any missile firing would worsen tensions on the Korean peninsula that has hurt stock prices in Japan and Korea and the South Korean won. The won today dropped to its lowest level in three weeks.

http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=37116051&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:

The "lunatic fringe" long has argued that the price of gold was being manipulated by a "gold cartel" involving J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the US. Treasury and the Federal Reserve, but that the manipulation had been sufficiently exposed to require that it be abandoned, producing the steady upward increase in the price of the shiny, yellow metal. In fact the "gold bugs," as they're known, are so sure of their research that not only do they believe the price of gold will continue to climb, but many are expecting to see prices of $800 to $1,000 an ounce. Until recently, most in the gold and financial worlds scoffed at such a prediction, but last month the Bank of Portugal made an announcement that shocked those who credit official goldreserve data and added fuel to the contention of the gold bugs that the "goldcartel" manipulation is in meltdown.

What the Bank of Portugal revealed in its 2001 annual report is that 433 tonnes [metric tons] of gold - some 70 percent of its gold reserve - either have been lent or swapped into the market. According to Bill Murphy, chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), a nonprofit organization that researches and studies the gold market and reports its findings at www.LeMetropoleCafe.com: "This gold is gone - and it lends support to our years of research that the central banks do not have the 32,000 tonnes of gold in reserve that they claim. The big question is: How many other central banks are in the same predicament as the Portuguese?"

The gold bugs appear to be basing their identification of a world gold shortage on industry data, much of which has been summarized in two papers prepared by four different gold analysts at different times using separate methods. The first paper was written by governmental investment adviser Frank Veneroso and his associate, mining analyst Declare Costelloe. Titled Gold Derivatives, Gold Lending: Official Management of the Gold Price and the Current State of the Gold Market, it was presented at the 2002 International Gold Symposium in Lima, Peru, and estimates the gold deficit of the central banks at between 10,000 and 15,000 tonnes. The second paper, Gold Derivatives: Moving Towards Checkmate, by Mike Bolser, a retired businessman, and Reginald H. Howe, a private investor and proprietor of the Website www .goldensextant.com, estimates the alleged shortage of central-bank gold at between 15,000 and 16,000 tonnes nearly a decade's worth of mine production.

George Milling-Stanley, manager of gold-market analysis for the World Gold Council (WGC), a private organization made up of leading gold-mining companies that promotes the acquisition and retention of gold, is aware of these papers and shortage numbers but tells INsiGHT that "there are no official [goldreserve] reports." That is, "The central banks are under no obligation to report what they lend into the market, what they place on deposit and what they do with their swaps, so there's a conventional-wisdom view, and a couple of different bodies have done some fairly serious research in[to] this and have come up with a figure [of] around 4,500 to 5,000 tonnes."

Stanley's estimate is based on data provided by so-called "serious" researchers, including London-based Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), one of the world's foremost precious-metals consultants, and a report titled Gold Derivatives: The Market View, commissioned by the WGC to London-based Virtual Metals Consultancy. While these two groups appear to be the research choice of the official gold world, there are in fact no "official" figures, and both studies, like the Veneroso/Costelloe and Bolser/Howe reports, are based on interviews, data analysis and other research generally available to the industry.

Although the WGC's Stanley stands by the data provided by the industry's "serious" researchers, he insists he cannot say for certain that the numbers are accurate. "There is no requirement on any country to tell the IMF how much gold it owns," says Stanley. "The requirement is to tell the IMF how much gold it has decided to place in its official reserves. Nobody knows whether that is the total of what they own or not. Obviously they can't report more than what they own, but they can certainly report less if they chose to. That gold may have been lent out, but is nevertheless still owed to them. It's a bit like any company reporting a cash position. It will report cash on hand and cash due - money owed by other people. I'm not saying this is ideal, but this is how it works."

Whether the gold bugs are right about the reasons for the meteoric rise in the price of gold is uncertain, but, according to GATAs Murphy: "It's all the more reason to have the central banks come clean about the actual amount of gold that physically exists in their reserves. Either way, the price of gold will continue to rise because, as we already know and others are discovering, the gold is gone."


Black Blade: Interesting read but I seriously doubt that the central banks will ever come clean about their holdings. The same holds true about an official detailed audit of Fort Knox gold. Curiously the government has repeatedly refused to undertake such an audit. Hmmm�

http://www.forbes.com/2003/03/05/cz_jd_0305watch.htmlGood article, I liked the qoute (paraphrased) "if you are not buying gold in this economy you should not be managing money..)

...enough of them have come clean......for us to draw conclusions about how much metal they have left.

It's about half of what they had in 1990.

Moreover, the central bank strategy going forward has two paths (1) sell the rest as soon as possible leaving nothing or (2) ration out the remaining 15,000 tonnes in an intelligent manner that takes selling pressure lower and gold higher.

They must get to a point where selling can cease. We have timing clues:

The formerly strong dollar has been dead since SECTREAS O'Neill was given more time with his family. It's on a line down with the Euro now on the move back up.

BTW the Euro went sideways during the Iraq war back and forth "Negotiations". Now that the Prez will go it alone, the Euro is near vertical. Hmmmm. Welcome to a disintegrating G-7 and central bankers at each other's throats.

Gold will be released in a controlled fashion under cover of the war, catching all the weak handed gold specs and sissy share buyers turned punters, flat-footed...again. The Fed uses these hapless mopes for punching bags.

Read here...buy here.


Buy and hold...no matter what.

While looking over some of the gold charts, daily and weekly, the left side connected with the right side of my brain with this visual. Watching the Manipulation Team and thier continuing efforts to beat down gold is like my grandson who recently tried to get the spring loaded "Jack"
back into it's box using a toy plastic hammer. I wonder if the Manipulators are having as much fun? If they are smiling and laughing, it is for a short period of time, and at a great expense. I wonder if they are aware that the latch is broken?

With thoughts of laughing children I'm off to bed. Night all.

http://www.newsmax.com/showinside.shtml?a=2003/2/6/163657U.S. "hegemony," as he puts it, is at an end. "The U.S. [economy] ... rests on a fragile foundation built upon consumer spending and trade deficits as opposed to mercantilism and trade surpluses. ... These deficits, coming at a time of American military expansion in pursuit of terrorist containment, threaten to reverse our hegemonic benefits and end our economic domination. Our SUVs, as well as our top cat near-monopoly of the good times are at risk."

So, Gross is correct on this point: We don't manufacture anything here, and we now have a trade deficit. And whose fault is that? More patriotic Americans who have outsourced manufacturing to the cheap labor markets overseas.

Gross continued: "The 'US of A,' it seems, is becoming less wealthy by the minute as foreign investment is being withheld and in some cases redirected to Chinese and other more-attractive ports of call."
_______
I don't endorse the views of NewsMax, they just happened
to have done a revealing interview with Bill Gross.
Bill is really letting himself go lately.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmb0MhW2V2FycmVu``The range of derivatives contracts is limited only by the imagination of man or sometimes, so it seems, madmen,'' said Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. once won a $60 million bet using derivatives on stocks called put options. Buffett made his comments in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, excerpts of which were published on the Fortune magazine Web site.

Banks such as J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are selling and trading more derivatives as slumping stocks push investors into new kinds of investments. Companies most often use derivatives to guard against swings in interest rates, currencies or credit ratings.

Revenue at U.S. commercial banks from trading derivatives and their underlying assets was $8.9 billion in the first nine months of last year, according to the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The top seven banks accounted for 79 percent of the total.

J.P. Morgan is the largest derivatives user, followed by Bank of America and Citigroup Inc., according to the OCC, which doesn't require investment banks to report revenue figures.
___________
Great article on derivatives

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmbt6BTSU0VDIEZhWashington, March 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission officials say they're concerned that companies are obscuring their pension losses in federal filings and giving investors incomplete information.

``There was a general lack of informative transparent disclosure,'' says Carol Stacey, chief accountant of the SEC's division of corporation finance. She says she reviewed more then 500 annual reports for 2001 with her staff. ``We strongly encourage companies to remedy this in future filings.''

Companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost more than $200 billion in the past two years in pension investments without clearly disclosing those losses in SEC filings, according to studies by investment banks Credit Suisse First Boston and UBS Warburg LLC.
___________
Got Gold?

This 4.65% L/B yield is sure proving a feisty hurdle to jump...or are the Bond Traders just teasing Topaz?
The "cost-of-carry" when factored against the Yield IMO puts this level hard up against Cash...and any move lower will prompt a wholesale sell-off.
Gold will ONLY shine when it is eyeballing CASH as the ONLY asset to hold.

We have but to WAIT...and HOLD.

Just to reiterate, when last we were at this bond Yield level (early Oct 02) the yield "triple-bottomed" and shot UP.
The Fed acknowledged with a 50bp rate-cut...mid meeting...and stopped the bleeding.
I'm thinking, given the LOW volume, and less pronounced "bouncing"...perhaps we're seeing ONLY house trading (Banks and whatnot) and the vast bulk of Bondholders having their finger on the sell trigger as I type!
Pimco sure sounds "excited".

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures are lower, the USD is higher, Gold is holding a bit higher, oil and NatGas are higher.

- Black Blade

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets turned negative while Euro markets are wavering but most are slightly positive.

- Black Blade

I will proceed from the assumption that Sector is correct in his post (#98982) where he predicts that gold will be permitted to rise in an orderly manner upon commencement of hostilities in Iraq.

Sir Alan Greenspan, sometime described as the most powerful man in the world, has this year publicly spoken about governments not always exercising suitable self-restraint when dealing with purely fiat currencies. Some have drawn inference therefrom that there is a plan in the foreseeable future to reintroduce some fractional backing (presumably gold) for the dollar. Others have said that Sir Greenspan, slated for retirement from the Federal Reserve later this year, no longer can predict US monetary intentions with certainty, and so may be speaking for his own purposes instead of intimating public policy.

But orderly rise of the dollar price of gold, IS consistent with reintroduction of gold backing of the dollar: the higher the price of gold, the less gold necessary to back the mass of US dollars outstanding. And so it is reasonable that Greenspan's public musings may be part of that plausible continuity which Government finds it expedient to attach to its actions.

And returning gold to a formal connection with the dollar, even if only fractional and temporary, would render gold once again an item of importance to central banks. Now if, as Sector reckons, half of the total 1990 central bank hoard of gold has been sold or loaned out, it becomes a matter of some interest as to whither that gold has gone. Some have speculated that occidental central banks have sold mainly to other occidental central banks, selling only to place downward pressure on the price. Some say that central bank sales have served to make up the yearly 1500 ton shortfall of production relative to demand. Some say that the buyers have been oriental central banks which have foreseen the devaluation of the dollar bringing return of a partial gold standard, and have prepared accordingly. Some say the buyers have been private financial powers who have foreseen worldwide financial crisis, with attendant failure of all major world currencies, essaying to preserve and increase their wealth by purchase of gold. Some say that there are those who fear the US will use the dollar for political purposes to impose its will, and so have been buying gold to insure some measure of independence.

So.....the very interesting question seems to be: "Who has bought the gold?"

Seems FX trading is factoring in a 50bp rate-cut for the ECcentrics, the LAST thing the Dollar needs NOW is a Euro rate cut.
Their (ECB's) decision will point to a "currency War" or collusive "global management"imo.

Where IS Belgian?

Why has there been no Japanese-buying-induced rally in the dollar?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmb0MhW2V2FycmVuSnip:

"
``What Buffett is saying is not so much that derivatives are bad per se but that they are sometimes quite opaque and can be used by dishonest and unscrupulous people to create false accounting,'' said Michael Spencer, chief executive of ICAP Plc, the world's largest interbank derivatives brokerage. ``What is needed is better transparency on the valuation methods, not the abolition of derivatives.''

"

Sundeck:

Oh is THAT what WEB is saying...that is OK then...all we need, Mr Spencer (the doyen of unbiassed derivatives knowledge) is a description of the mark-to-myth models? What a farce! Can you see these major institutions disclosing their proprietry models? As if they mean anything anyway. They are compiled by intelligent, but inexperienced people without much understanding of the real world of Chance and, certainly, without access to sufficient data. You need a couple of hundred years of data to allow the statisticians to build credible populations of relevant data from which to derive models, AND of course a completely separate set of equivalent data against which the models are tested, and then we will have integrity in the models and ""***TRANSPARENCY***"".

In the mean time, what about the toxic sewage that has built up to fill 128 $T-cans for which no such integrity or transparency exists?

One difference IMO between Warren Buffett and these derivatives turkeys is that Buffett knows when he does NOT understand something.

Old Chinese saying:

He who knows that he knows is a leader, follow him.
He who knows that he knows not is teachable, teach him.
He who knows not that he knows is asleep, awaken him.
He who knows not that he knows not is a fool, spurn him!

:-)

Sundeck

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2825091.stmGerman unemployment has risen to 11.3%, its highest level during the government of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.

The figures - early double what economists had been expecting - are another embarrassment to Mr Schroeder who has persistently promised to bring unemployment down.

Economy minister Wolfgang Clement described the latest data as "extremely serious" but rejected speculation that promised tax cuts would be brought forward in order to encourage economic growth.
________
Bloomberg says its 10.5%? hmmm
The world economy looks really bad.

The last time that the bond was yielding in this range, the DOW was 600 pts lower. So if the rumors of repatriation are indeed true, than where is the liquidity coming from to keep the Dow up as well as the bond rate down. If this manifestation is a measure of "ppt" fiat creation, than this data should show up on one of the M's (1,2 or 3). Anyone else notice how many 52 wk lows are hitting on the s&p but all the fed has to do is nibble on futures comprised within the 30 Dow components to get the flagpoles that appear out of nowhere on the charts. Explain to me again what free markets and lazzie faire are.

http://keyinvest.ubswarburg.com/ki/ch/en/newsbody.ki?newsid=782663HEADLINE: China to revamp government, eye on economy

BEIJING, March 6 (Reuters) - China unveiled an ambitious government revamp on Thursday to tackle ailing banks and sickly state firms, twin issues that threaten to undermine the world's fastest-growing major economy.

...The amount of bad debt in China's banking system could run into the hundreds of billions of dollars, accounting for as much as half of all loans.

A $1.2 trillion pool of deposits has so far kept the banks
afloat, but that could change as China, the world's sixth-largest economy, opens its financial sector wider to foreign competition and gives people alternative places to save their money.

...The steps could encourage more lending to private firms that account for most of China's economic growth but are starved for cash as lenders stick to government-backed firms.

"Who is creating jobs? It's not the government, it's not the state firms, it's the private sector. But it's sad to see the private sector has very little access to credit. Money cannot get to the guy who can generate jobs," said HSBC's Qu Hongbin.

..."The reforms are necessary because the government has to react to the shifting towards a market economy," said Wang Zhimin, a parliament delegate from Shandong province.

China's economy grew eight percent last year thanks to
booming exports, a flood of foreign investment and hefty state spending on projects such as highways, bridges and power grids. Beijing is aiming for seven percent economic growth in 2003.

------(see url for text)------

Private sector needs more access to credit... annual economic growth 7-8 percent... etc...

While national paper currency is employed and expanded and generally always fated to depreciate to serve social agendas, a person anywhere should be able to hold gold with confidence as their independent form of strong savings. In truth, economic prosperity should be very positive for the future value and demand for gold because newly mined supply from depleting reserves can't always keep pace with growth. Nuances omitted for sake of making a timely point.

R.

In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals' founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:

"[M]uch of this issue is devoted to oil, inflation, international politics and gold. . . . . Though the dollar continued to rise against most international currencies during the past month, most currencies ( including the dollar) were depreciating against real goods. . . . AND IT IS THE TREND THAT HAS ECONOMISTS CONCERNED. Crude oil, which must be purchased with dollars, is being blamed as the chief culprit. When the dollar price of oil rises, it fans the inflationary fires of nearly every nation in the world. All of this could at some point inspire a dollar rebellion among the nations of the world, with both oil producers and oil consumers capable of finding fault with the dollar simultaneously . . . . In such a case gold, of course, would become one of the primary beneficiaries and the dollar could go into a tailspin."

Take note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

News & Views is available to our clientele only. However, the latest issue is back from the printer and available to prospective gold investors who request an INFORMATION PACKET on one-time only basis. We invite your request.

If you would like to get a feel for the thinking that forms the basis for market conclusions like the one featured above, take advantage of the offer to include THE ABCs of GOLD INVESTING: PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH THROUGH PRIVATE GOLD OWNERSHIP. A prompt with ordering information will come up after you submit your request for the INFORMATION PACKET.

test

http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2003030600065r7688&SA=Latest%20NewsNEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Saudi Arabia has told Western government and oil officials that the kingdom's crude oil output has reached its limit at around 9.2 million barrels a day and won't rise further, even with a war looming in Iraq, Dow Jones Newswires has learned.

According to Western officials who have spoken with Saudi officials in recent days, there is an understanding that because Saudi output can't rise further, a release of oil from consumer governments' emergency stockpiles is inevitable, if and when, a U.S.-led war is launched on Iraq.

One Saudi Arabian oil ministry official refused to comment on what the Western sources said, and others were unavailable for comment.

Saudi Arabia has maintained that it has about 10.5 million b/d of oil production capacity and that output could be raised to that level within weeks or months, after considerable investment. But the Saudis haven't pumped at that level in more than a decade.

Here is some more on Bill Gross from the same people.

"So, supposedly, according to Gross, the smart money will go to Mexico, whose citizens are climbing over each other to get here, and communist China, the repressive dictatorship that allows everything from execution of female babies to slave labor to mass product piracy, and whose people are literally killing themselves to get here.

Oh, and by the way, we mentioned Pimco, a subsidiary of Allianz AG, is moving a hunk of change out of the U.S. bond market. And where is the money going? To China? No. To Mexico? No.

It's going right into the stagnant bond market of our erstwhile "ally" Germany, coincidentally the home country of Allianz.

This smacks of the post-9/11 actions of George Soros to us.

Isn't it nice to have patriotic Americans controlling your money?"

So, Bill Gross is not spin free is guess.

The INO spot gold charts and the "change" shown for the day seem to be calculated from a 12AM EST time base rather than from the NY close. I didn't see this explained at the site but have noticed the change shown is not based on the NY close.
Boilermaker

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/zihlmann030703.htmlWhy Buy the Swiss Franc and Sell the US Dollar
Excerpt: "Therefore, we dare to predict that the slide of the US dollar against other major currencies (CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY) will continue for a considerable time, as long as the economic imbalances the US carries with other nations are not corrected.
The short-term picture
Short-term, the consolidation that started at the beginning of the month of February seems to be drawing to an end, and we expect an eventual break-down from the area between 1.34 to .1.35 to test the support dating from October 1998 when the dollar briefly dropped to 1.2725.
Are US markets fundamentally cheap?
Historically, a FAIR valuation of US markets has indicated a dividend yield of 4 to 5%. Nonetheless, current dividend yields are still below 2%. Historically cheap US markets yield upwards of 6%. The answer to the above question is therefore simple: NO! As pessimism spreads, gold will rise, the dollar will fall as will all the major US indices.
Fundamental Considerations: The USD has Lost its Magic
On the basis of a fundamental currency model, the CHF is still undervalued by around 20 %.The short-term goal during the coming two years is around 1.25 to 1.30 US dollars to the EUR. The flow of capital between the Eurozone and the USA for investments such as equities, corporate bonds, government bonds and money-market securities will be reversed in the direction of Europe. It is believed that the projected relative development of fundamental evaluation factors - including growth potential, equity-market analysis, levels of return, inflation potential and budget deficits - is uniformly in favour of the old continent.
Classic exchange-rate theories involving purchase-power parity and interest-rate parity also indicate a 15 to 20 percent upward valuation of the EUR. Many players in the market still give these theories a great deal of credence.
The high levels of the US current account deficit during the past 10 years have entailed a large number of foreign central banks piling up big US dollar reserves. Asian central banks could trigger a severe currency crisis if they substantially reduced dollar positions and purchased EUR with a view to diversifying their currency risks. The German Bundesbank is also still managing big US dollar reserves, a major proportion of which is likely to be sold during the next few years, because they have become largely superfluous since currency reserves have been transferred to the European Central Bank. The current situation recalls the position at the end of the Bretton Woods System in 1973 when the world was also swamped with dollars due to the US trade deficit, and the central banks finally resorted to gold in order to spread currency risks.
The key fundamental factors have been indicating a drastic devaluation of the American currency for years. However, for some months now investors have also been receiving clear signals based on chart data indicating that the dominance of the American dollar is now history. Taking a perspective of a few weeks, the US dollar could win back some ground, but long-term analyses show charts tracing out clear top formations for the Greenback." -Peter Zihlmann March 7, 2003

Re: INO gold quote
I thought there must be a system to it. Better than "reading between the lines" what isn't there.
Thank you.

http://www.etherzone.com/2003/henr030603.shtmlSNOW JOB
THERE'S PLENTY OF MONEY
By: Ed Henry -Excerpt:
"On Tuesday, March 4, Reuters News and Financial Intelligence reported that U.S. Secretary of the Treasury John "Snow faced intense questioning from Democrats who said the Bush administration has produced no cost estimates for prosecuting a war, nor for a possible occupation afterward, and asked where the budget surpluses had gone."
It may be impossible to estimate what a war with Iraq is going to cost, but it definitely is not true that we couldn't know exactly what it has cost us so far.
With over 250,000 troops in the area, the National Guard pressed into service, six aircraft carriers and other ships deployed to the area, maneuvers in Kuwait, bombings in the Northern and Southern "no fly" zones and beyond, Tommy Frank and his computers in Qatar, and bribes paid to build some sort of coalition of the willing -- we ought to have some cost estimates to date.
The only thing we citizens know for certain is that in the last five quarters the national debt has increased $638.7 billion. That's not chicken feed folks. How much of this increased borrowing was caused by Iraq? Nobody asks for an accounting here.
Neither did any of the penetrating news watchdogs ask the Secretary how he has been managing to finance a government that has been bumping its head on the national debt ceiling for more than a week now, completely unable to borrow at the rate of the two billion per day to which it has become accustomed.
As far as surpluses are concerned, they're still there as brilliant as ever. The government just conveniently stopped reporting the books in terms of the "Unified Budget." Instead, they now use "over budget" accounting.
In fiscal 2000 and 2001, entitlements were the major factor in surpluses and last year, fiscal 2002, they still accounted for a surplus of $149 billion with Social Security leading the pack at $89 billion despite fewer people working. These elements are part of the planned budget so they cannot possibly show up in "over budget" accounting. Ask Ken May of Enron about that.
Pressed further, the new Secretary of the Treasury fell back on the old Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rebuttal saying that; "deficits of that size ($307 billion this year and $304 billion predicted in fiscal 2004) diminishing in later years would not be harm to an economy worth $10 trillion and instead would help create jobs and foster investment."
Let's take a closer look at this GDP crappola.
Gross Domestic Product is something the crafty often bring out of the woodwork to explain away our horrendous national debt. With a GDP of $10 trillion a year, we can certainly afford a debt of $6.4 trillion, 64 percent of a year's gross sales.
The implication is that we could easily pay off the national debt if we all sent all of our earnings to the government for 64 percent of the year.
Don't laugh. This is the argument they use."

Looks like we could be starting to retrace the Jan downmove - looking for relatively swift move to 0.618 level around 370 to complete pattern - then some backing and filling in 360s and then on to glory!

Fingers crossed!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1There is quite a battle over the $355.50 (spot) line this morning, a ceiling which has held now for the better part of a month.

It appears that some are becoming impatient for the war decision to be made public.

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlPlease see the latest UP-DATE at the LINK above !

QUEST -- The APRIL 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3J) SETTLEMENT Price on Thursday March 13, 2003: THE ENTRY DEADLINE is HIGH NOON Denver time on Tuesday 3/11/03 !!!!!!

ADDITIONAL QUEST -- AN ESSAY CONTEST IN ANSWERING (in more than 30 words) ....

"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . . . . . . . . . . . . ."

Prizes are to be awarded for each of the two QUESTS of this CONTEST !! (BUT, one need not enter the Essay Contest portion, if they do not want to "confess", and only state a "why" statement for their Prognostication.)

===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a "Discussion Statement" !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) APRIL 2003 Gold Contract (GC3J) on the date of Thursday, the 13th of March, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Tuesday, March 11th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY to accompany the Price prognostication,--- EITHER
1) A Statement of why you projected that price --- OR
2) enter the ESSAY Contest with an Answer completion of the confession ---

"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . . . . . . . . . . . . ."

===
THE PRIZES !!

The POG CONTEST rules are set forth below and the WINNING PRIZE will be a GOLDEN "Napoleon the First" (Bonaparte himself) French 20 Franc piece, with 0.1867 ounces of Gold, (and carried at many battles by --guess who), worth about $100. The two "Runners-up's" will each get an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(Rich, Did you see that?)

The "best, most clever, and most devastating" short ESSAY statement attached to the POG Prognostication, wins a The Netherlands GOLDEN "King" (King Willem) 10 Guilder gold coin containing 0.1947 ounces of GOLD, while the "Runner- up" gets an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(OK Rich, Did you see that?)
===
LET the CONTEST continue !
<;-)

as in days of yore,Up Into the Close!

Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
UP-DATE on POG CONTEST "KING of the HILL" status ! <;-)
<<<< SNIP >>>>
**** $360.8 **** VanRip (03/03/03; 19:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98814)
**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)
**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)
**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

---
Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
2/28/03 GC3J HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 OI = 105,993
3/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 OI = 104,153
3/04/03 GC3J HIGH = $354.9 low = $349.5 Settlement = $353.3 Change +$4.0 OI = 105,279
3/05/03 GC3J HIGH = $358.8 low = $352.3 Settlement = $353.2 Change -$0.1 OI = 106,349
3/06/03 GC3J HIGH = $357.4 low = $352.6 Settlement = $356.9 Change +$3.7 OI = ?

===
Contest FIRST DAY, 2/28, Sir Kevin$ was "King of the Hill"
Contest SECOND DAY, 3/3, Sir Kevin$ was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!
Contest THIRD DAY, 3/4, Sir Zelts was "King of the Hill" !!!
Contest FOURTH DAY, 3/5, Sir Zelts was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!!!
Contest FIFTH DAY, 3/6, Sir Liberty Head is NOW "King of the Hill" !!!!!

===
ABOUT FIVE days remain to Enter the CONTESTS.
Put on your thinking HAT and prepare to make your PROGNOSTICATIONS soon !
<;-)

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlJoin the FUN and become "wealthy" at the same time !! <;-)
===
Just enter either or BOTH Portions of the new CONTEST, and WIN "FREE" Gold and/or Silver !!! To enter, you must have a Free "POSTING PASSWORD". BUT, IF you do not now have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD) --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK above ! He makes it easy and painless too. There WILL be FREE GOLD and Silver given away for the BEST ESSAY and most accurate Price Of Gold (POG) Prognostications.
<;-)

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial asset which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

While the market in fed funds was trading on target at 1.25%, the Fed trading desk entered the open market today to add $4 billion with 28-day repurchase agreements and $5.25 billion through overnights.

Diversify with gold because there is no meaningful limit to this process of money creation.

R.

Your wisdom is certainly missed....especially now in this world flooded in turmoil. Return soon...............

http://keyinvest.ubswarburg.com/ki/ch/en/newsbody.ki?newsid=787565ZURICH, March 6 (Reuters) - Swiss National Bank Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth cited ... Switzerland's weak economic outlook for a surprise cut in interest rates.

The central bank cut the key short-term money market
interest rate target range by 0.5 percentage points to 0.0-0.75 percent and said it would target the lower end of the band, or effectively 0.25 percent.

While the rate cut boosted the euro against the franc, the Swiss currency remains around all-time highs against the currency of its major trading partner and around four-year highs against the U.S. dollar.

----(see url)------

With official action like that to weaken is national currency, echoed by the Japanese selling yen in yet another example, savers should learn they are ultimately better off choosing physical gold to preserve purchasing power over any nation's unit of money.

R

****354.7****

"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tons of Portugal gold, and I did it because in a few years I hope to be retiring. The 401K money I had in my account went down the flusher so I need a solid investment to count on. The 30 tons of Portugal gold should just about cover the rising medical cost of us elderly floozies and since I intend to outlive my husband, the money will be needed to cover the rising cost of the plastic surgeries, lipo suctions and lenghty cruises to warm wonderful places. I think if I only live to be 83 1/2 the thirty tons will just about cover the lifestyle I intend to enjoy. Yes, I bought the gold and I'm glad and I would do it again. (Just don't tell my husband)

Leave it to a woman to find the great bargins in the world!

"Yes, I bought the gold and I'm glad and I would do
it again. (Just don't tell my husband) "

P.S.) If those retirement plans ever include a boat I think I could fall in love all over again.

Good luck with the contest, and thanks for the smile today.

http://www.ecb.int/key/03/sp030306.htmExcerpt of statement by Willem F. Duisenberg, President of ECB:
"We have comprehensively reviewed monetary, financial and economic developments today. We concluded that the outlook for price stability over the medium term has improved in recent months, owing in particular to the subdued pace of economic growth and the appreciation of the exchange rate of the euro. As a result, the Governing Council has decided to lower the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points."

The main refinancing rate now stands at 2.50%.

The Bank of England cut their own rates in a surprise move by 0.25 percent last month, yesterday Norway cut theirs by .50 percent.

Ansering a question why the rate was cut by 25 (instead of 50) basis points at this time, Mr. Duisenberg said:

"We are not in a position to precisely ascertain what the future will bring. Especially the geopolitical uncertainties are such and so large that it is simply impossible to make a precise judgement about what monetary policy would do and will do. ...the Governing Council remains alert and stands ready to act decisively and in a timely manner, but the consequences of a war can go in many directions. So can the decisions of the Governing Council."

Further...

Question:
"Has the effective or mere threat of war already had some sort of impact on the euro zone economy that you could determine?"

Duisenberg:
"It is our impression that the by now rather prolonged threat of war has already undermined confidence to such an extent that it has already had, or at least is having, a dampening effect on consumer demand."

Question:
"And my second question is, you said in your statement that the ECB is alert and ready and I wonder whether if that is the reason why you don't have the word "appropriate" in your statement?"

Duisenberg:
"Well, if we use the word "appropriate" we expect it to remain valid for a considerable period of time. By now the uncertainties are so great and the developments may come so fast. And we are not even certain of what direction the actual development will take. So that is the reason why we deliberately avoided the word "appropriate" because that would give a sort of consolidation idea which we simply don't have."

---------------

Further into the Q & A session, Mr. Duisenberg in an unrelated context touches on a key point that sets the new European banking paradigm apart from the U.S. counterpart -- "Under the Treaty the central banks are forbidden to finance governments, to give credit to governments."

R.

http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=3080125☆trow=1&find=iraq2003-03-06 11:32 * IRAN * IRAQ * OILFIELDS * ELIMINATION *

IRAQ BLOWS UP ABOUT 2,500 OIL OILFIELDS

TEHRAN, March 6, 2003. /from RIA Novosti correspondent Nikolai Terekhov/. - Iraq has dropped bombs hitting 2,500 oil fields that cover a vast area.

According to the IRNA agency, the bombing near Sharjeh resulted in the explosion of an oil refinery near Kirkuk.

Some oil-bearing wells were mined with antitank mines.

The Iraqi Army units are ditching around near Baghdad and Kirkuk round the clock to resist the US Army.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=2338625
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said on Thursday the stationing of U.S. troops near the border with North Korea has become intrusive to South Korea, and said forces could be moved southward or out of South Korea altogether.

Black Blade: South Koreans have been protesting the presence of US troops and express an interest in "reunification" with North Korea. Perhaps the US should leave South Korea and as North Korea has a million man army those hopes of "reunification" just may become a reality. Hmmm...


Old Asian curse: "Be careful what you wish for, you just may get it"

http:// english.pravda.ru/main/2003/03/06/44067.html
00:47 2003-03-06

Thousands of Russians volunteer to defend Iraq

Around ten thousand Russian citizens have applied for entry visas into Iraq to defend this country against the planned aggression by the warmongering USA and UK, according to the Iraqi Embassy in Moscow.

Iraqi Ambassador to Moscow, Abbas Khalaf, declared last week that the Embassy had received around 3,500 requests, a number which has multiplied in the last few days, according to sources in the same Embassy.

The requests come from young males, some with combat experience, who describe themselves as "volunteers who are willing to defend Iraq against the illegal armed aggression of the USA and the United Kingdom, two countries which continue to follow a belligerent stance on crisis management, wholly outside the generally accepted concepts of a New World Order based upon multilateralist approaches to problem solving, based upon the United Nations Organisation, a position championed by president Putin's Russian Federation.

For those who present an adequate reason for travelling to Iraq, the Embassy provides a visa and transportation, free of charge.

Timofei BYELO
PRAVDA.Ru

As the daily water torture of equities, aka CNBC drivels on a few thoughts ocurred to me of reasons that seem to be contributing to equity decline. While many other reasons exist beyond these to buy gold/sell equities they still bear considering.

* As unemployment grows more people will defend a mortgage at any cost. The home is the last bit of appreciated (for now) equity. Liquidating funds is the last hope.

* Divorce rates are up 9% according to recent studies. Divorces frequently require liquidating funds to settle estates.

*Many boomers are facing college tuition costs for children that are going up by staggering amounts. With the second mortgage option frequently gone stock liquidation might again be the only choice to keep junior in school.

* Employers that are no longer willing or able to put matching 401 money into employees accounts. Again with unemployment growing both the employee and employer amount of contribution vanishes.

* Every dollar put into the stock market since 1997 (basis S-P) is a loser. Since this is when the majority of suckers got drawn in they never saw ANY stock market gain. Quite the contrary, they got swindled. Angry and sullen, they will never return to buy ANY dip ever again.

Going long equities is just as insane as shorting gold. Both
have bottomless pits to be wrong. The only logical conclusion of doing either is that they are being "managed" by people desperately defending a wrong side position. We all know by now the usual suspects. The outcome is becoming more apparent each day.

The markets were roiled today as rumors abounded with claims that Iraq began to blow up oil wells and that Osama Bin Laden was captured (probably from the DEBKA misinformation/tabloid site). The US has denied the rumors but on such a slow day when investors failed to show up on Wall Street traders needed something to fill their time. This morning Saudi Arabian officials admitted that they had reached their "Hubbert Peak" production and are only producing oil at 9.2 million bbl/day after having reached 10.5 million bbl/day decade ago. NatGas storage is on the fast track to critically low levels and next winter depletion is almost certain as drill rig activity remains too low and few plans to catch up. US economic news is very grim as the economy wallows in a deepening recession and unemployment rises. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

http://highlandenergy.com/agachart.htm
Storage Highlights:

Working gas in storage was 838 Bcf as of Friday, February 28, 2003, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 176 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 981 Bcf less than last year at this time and 602 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,440 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 394 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 96 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 209 Bcf below the 5-year average of 446 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 54 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 2 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 26 Bcf. At 838 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.


Black Blade: One ugly chart (see link). An energy crisis of epic proportions is brewing as NatGas supply depletes. Few companies have plans to increase drilling activity citing land access issues, lack of infrastructure (pipelines and pipeline capacity), permitting delays, etc. Next winter is going to be a disaster -- forget about "economic recovery".

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmeX8xYlT2d1bmxlThe executives refused to comply with the subpoena and are trying to delay their testimony until they can coordinate other requests for evidence stemming from investor lawsuits, according to Neal Batson, the lawyer named by the U.S. Justice Department to investigate Enron's collapse. Batson has asked a federal bankruptcy judge to force the executives to appear as witnesses or face contempt-of-court charges. The bank says it is cooperating with Batson.

Credit Suisse First Boston, the investment-banking unit of Switzerland's No. 2 bank, faces an array of lawsuits claiming it issued biased stock research, sought kickbacks for shares of new stock and defrauded Enron investors, and set aside $450 million as a liability reserve last week. Its top technology investment banker, Frank Quattrone, quit two days ago amid charges of obstruction of justice.

``There's a legal cloud hanging over this industry and Credit Suisse,'' said Heinrich-Horst Wiemer, an analyst at Bank Sal. Oppenheimer Jr. & Cie., who has a ``neutral'' rating on Credit Suisse Group. ``This is one more ingredient.''

Credit Suisse said it is trying to coordinate the appearance of its subpoenaed executives with requests for similar testimony from lawyers for Enron investors. Batson told the bank that he would also subpoena individuals from seven other unnamed investment banks, said bank spokesman John Gallagher.

Under co-chief executives John Mack and Oswald Gruebel, Credit Suisse Group had a fourth-quarter loss of $811 million.
______
Lets all hope JPM gets a subpoena for Mahonia fraud.
7 other investment banks to get called! This could be
very entertaining.

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/US/ap20030306_1659.htmlThe Metropolitan Transportation Authority board voted Thursday to boost bus and subway fares by 50 cents to $2, the first increase since November 1995.

The fare hike, which will affect more than 7 million daily riders in New York City, would not go into effect until May at the earliest. The increase insured no service cuts on mass transit.

The decision on the increase came after months of dire warnings over the agency's financial state. The MTA had said the changes were needed to combat a deficit estimated to be about $952 million over the next two years.

That deficit estimate has changed a few times in the last several months, reaching as high as $2.8 billion at the end of last year before it was revised downward.

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/065/business/Fidelity_cuts_pension_forecast+.shtml''You've had this double whammy hit defined-benefit plans,'' observed Raj Sharma, a senior vice president at Merrill Lynch & Co. in Boston. ''Companies have to take money out of their corporate cash and basically plow it into the pension plan, so the company ends up, in a strange way, working for their retirees instead of for their shareholders.''

During the boom, from 1996 to 1999, the average pension fund soared from being 85 percent funded to being overfunded, at 131 percent, according to Towers Perrin, a benefits consultancy. But by the end of last year, funding levels had slumped to 80 percent, the lowest since 1993. Fidelity is 47 percent funded; a year ago, it had 57 percent of the money on hand to meet its future obligations.

A plan that invests 40 percent in bonds and 60 percent in equities, Towers Perrin said, has seen its funding level drop 20 percent in the past year and a total of 39 percent through the three-year bear market. That's the worst decline since the 1972-1974 period, when funding levels fell by 14 percent, Towers Perrin said.

The dramatic drop in the markets has many companies mulling whether to cut pension benefits, curb them for new hires, or find other schemes to lower their retirement liability.
__________
If companies hire new workers just think of the added pension
problems. Better not to hire right now. In future new workers
might get a lot less in pension benefits. Although the new
workers might have to pay much higher taxes for soc sec
program.
---
NY fare increase is more like 30% not 25%

Nothing has changed, gentlemen. Nothing !
The dollar-euro-gold-arabian oil, relationships, do evolve according to plans, laid out for already quite some time now. Geopolitical events are confirming the building of the 2 different (leading) currency-blocks (euro-dollar). Old Europ + Russia + China, do align with a higher profile around common causes (monetary and economical and strategical).

With the next ECB-banker, being a Frenchman, we will most probably witness a more "passionate" euro-gold-management (Gold-Commitments).
A harsher competitive political process of taking the world off the *old* dollar standard by wearing out the dollar's mechanics (repeat : wearing out). A long term political move that could possibly be hastened by the comming ME events.

The dollar >>> euro, *Transition* is taking place !

Currency management during this transition must happen in function of the reigning economic/geopolitical, realities.
UK/Turkey and/or other states, chosing their dollar or euro-camp.

Euro-management keeps on working on the change of the dollar-based, gold-system, through the confusing (misleading) Gold-reserve-Commitments, still (mis)percepted as naked "sales", through dollar spectacles.

The dollar >>> euro, transition-maneuver, must proceed through dollar-inflation >>> price-inflation ! Not the usual inflation, but...(Weimarish)(war) hyperinflation.
Note that POO is already more than 20 days out of the 22$-28$ zone ! The final costs of the ME-war, will be enormous and paid for with Bernanke's US-dollars. This (euro)-forced $-printing inflation is currently happening and is another main precursor for a much lower dollar exchange rate. Postponing the logical price-inflation, consequences, is a master move. Dollar-inflation *must* reach such high level that it can't be hedged (covered) with nothing anymore.
Or in other words...how does one destroys a paper-gold-derivative-hedge !?

The above is simply the explanatory theory behind the present dollar/euro-exchange rate moves (management) in conjunction with POG-behavior. Point is that one currency faction wants to "discredit" the paper-gold-dollar-system, in its hedging function and encourage dollar-inflation for the purpose of future hyper-price-inflation. This is happening NOW...full throttle, thanks to the geopolitical events !

The "creation" of dollar-reserves accelerates with each step forward of the euro ! Derivative protection for the increasing amount of new dollars, has its limits. The dollar's actions are efforts to push those limits further away. In the mean time...physical gold flows to the most pertinent oil players (Iran).

The (infidel) Eastern European states (Balkan-2005 EMU-candidates) will soon experience what it means to have an Euroland and allies that functions with the euro as a local ***reserve*** !

A * Political Game* is being played, as to limit goldprices of getting too high...soon, there will be a goldprice, without a range. Gold, was and still is "THE" political metal par excellence. It's present price-behavior, against the ongoing realities, is circumstantial evidence, of highest reliability.

This morning Saudi Arabian officials admitted that they had reached their "Hubbert Peak" production and are only producing oil at 9.2 million bbl/day after having reached 10.5 million bbl/day decade ago

Black Blade, is this real? If memory serves me, Deffeyes and the author of the large blue-grey paperback on the same topic (name escapes me) both said the M.E. peak was a few years off yet. If this is real, it's importance cannot be underestimated.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html"The energy situation is really big news and appears to be largely ignored by the media..." follow the link....

blackblade what currency will a unifiyed (if it ever happens) korea use? the n.koreans do not use the federal reserve notes. This doesnt probably have much effect on demand for dollars but a unified peninsula not using a dollar could have an impact on the value of the dollar.should be interesting to watch this develope!

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030307wo11.htmYomiuri Shimbun

This is the last installment in a three-part series focusing on the spring labor offensive (shunto) and changes in the wage system.

In September, Sankyo Seiki Mfg. Co. closed its video camera motor manufacturing plant in Iida, Nagano Prefecture.

The plant was ideally located for a precision instrument manufacturer at the foot of the Kiso mountain range, an area known for its fresh air.

But these days the cool alpine air blows through an empty factory. One of the production lines was moved to another plant operated by the firm's Chinese subsidiary in Guandong Province and 200 workers were transferred to other domestic plants of the firm and affiliated companies. Some employees opted to leave the company under an early retirement option.

This kind of story is now common throughout the country.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++

China's influence isn't just over the US. It has caused a warping of geopolitical structures and forced the current drastic currency rebalancing process. The Euro shoots to 1.1 and is headed towards 1.4 by the end of the year while the dollar [as measured by the Major Currency Dollar Index] is headed towards 72.

Think of that delta move in terms of aircraft sales. A Boeing 747 if purchased by European firms will cost 50% less at year's end. The Airbus will cost 50% more if purchased by US firms.

Once cheap Chinese goods will cost 23% more. Oil is a cat's toy.

Our major trading partner, Japan, just cannot survive by lowering it's yen without triggering a stampede to gold. The Greenspan policy of continued policy failure denial because he fears loss of face is drawing many critics these days.

The Chinese are loath to cooperate and raise the Yuan thereby making their goods more expensive and less competitive. They like things as they are.

All this currency action feeds gold and makes it stronger.

Nesbit Burns "Expert" gold analysts call for $320 to $350 gold at year's end.
A blind donkey could tell you that with its link to currencies, gold cannot be anywhere near $350 by the end of the year.

The huge bullion bank set-up has arrived at the checkmate end-game...just a few more moves and the shares will finally realize they've been had. Shorts will turn to longs and never turn back.

Read here... buy here.

I confess. I bought the 30 tonnes of Portuguese gold. I plan to use it to buy up as much of the "New American Frontier" (frontier defined as land with a population of fewer than 6 people / square mile). I have no desire to become a "land baroness," but if Depression II hits, there will be people in need of places to go where they can do a bit of homesteading -- build stawbale houses and raise food. I think it will be important to help keep folks going. And if Depression II doesn't hit, I will be a land baroness.

Oh mighty and puissant Wizard, is it within your powers to move my guess up to the next available spot should the one I have chosen be taken? I am currently on a recruiting / marketing trip in Asia and have limited opportunity to check in at the Forum. Thank you.

Garnered from a conversation at breakfast this morning: The DMZ has apparently been heating up quite a bit. However, it isn't being mentioned in the media. Well, I'm in Seoul now so maybe I'll hear something else interesting.

Got gold?

http://quote.yahoo.co.jp/q?s=8301.q&d=ay Above link is the stock chart of BOJ (Bank of Japan) for the last ten years between 1993 to 2003. At the upper section, a blue line is the price of BOJ. The top price of BOJ was 755,000 Yen/share at Dec. 08, 1988. The secular bear trend has been started in 1988, until 2003 and into further more futures. I select the price of BOJ as the index of Yen value.
Because the curve of BOJ is monotonously decline, and this decline precisely represents the true value of Yen. Forex Yen is manipulated by CBs, and Forex Yen has been very twisted.
Weimar Mark suffered from the astronomical reparations, but present Japanese Yen has no reparations. So that the time was very severe to Weimar republic, and the decline speed of BOJ is very loose, but the devaluation of BOJ proceeds steady.
At first, Japanese stock market lost more than $4 trillion USD in 1990s.
Next, by the housing bubble, Japanese lost more than $ 10 trillion USD, and this is the fundamental problems in Japanese banking-system. Further, more than 670 trillion Yen Government-bond (equivalent to $5.7 USD) has already been issued, and BOJ bought more than 86 trillion Yen-Government-bond. Gov. bond-share by BOJ is more than 12.8 percent.
According to the following list, the value of Yen(BOJ) has been passed through the instability stage (Phillips In Table 5), and passing through the end-half of disaster stage (Phillips in Table 6). A new desperation stage is creeping in the face of the stock price.

Date Marks to the pound normalized-coeff Date price of BOJ share normalized-oeff.
1920 Dec 258M/P 100(percent) BOJ 1988.Dec.08 755,000Yen 100(percent)
1921 Jan 243M/P 106.17(per) BOJ 1991 Dec 276,000Yen 36.5(per)
1921 Feb 237M/P 108.86(per) BOJ 1992 Nov 191,000Yen 25.3(per)
1921 Mar 244M/P 105.74(per) BOJ 1993 Apr 300,000Yen 39.7(per)
1921 Apr 249M/P 103.61(per) BOJ 1993 Nov 210,000Yen 27.8(per)
1921 May 247M/P 104.45(per) BOJ 1994 Apr 230,000Yen 30.5(per)
1921 Jun 261M/P 098.85(per) BOJ 1994 Nov 170,000Yen 22.5(per)
1921 Jul 278M/P 092.81(per) BOJ 1995 Jul 150,000Yen 19.9(per)
1921 Aug 307M/P 084.04(per) BOJ 1996 Apr 195,000Yen 25.8(per)
1921 Sep 390M/P 066.15(per) BOJ 1996 Sep 160,000Yen 21.2(per)
1921 Oct 582M/P 44.33(per) BOJ 1997 Apr 135,000Yen 17.9(per)
1921 Nov 1,041M/P 24.78(per) BOJ 1997 Nov 100,000Yen 13.2(per)
1921 Dec 794M/P 32.49(per) BOJ 1998 Apr 117,000Yen 15.5(per)
1922 Jan 811M/P 31.81(per) BOJ 1998 Nov 96,000Yen 12.7(per)
1922 Feb 907M/P 28.45(per) BOJ 1999 Apr 125,000Yen 16.5(per)
1922 Mar 1,246M/P 20.71(per) BOJ 1999 Nov 115,000Yen 15.2(per)
1922 Apr 1,285M/P 20.08(per) BOJ 2000 Apr 90,000Yen 11.9(per)
1922 May 1,294M/P 19.94(per) BOJ 2000 Nov 67,000Yen 8.87(per)
1922 Jun 1,410M/P 18.30(per) BOJ 2001 Apr 75,000Yen 9.93(per)
1922 Jul 2,200M/P 11.73(per) BOJ 2001 Nov 58,100Yen 7.70(per)
1922 Aug 5,074M/P 05.08(per) BOJ 2002 Apr 72,500Yen 9.6(per)
1922 Sep 6,502M/P 03.97(per) BOJ 2002 Jul 61,000Yen 8.08(per)
1922 Oct 14,146M/P 01.824(per) BOJ 2002 Nov 50,300Yen 6.66(per)
1922 Nov 32.146M/P 00.8026(per) BOJ 2003 Jan 50,000Yen 6.62(per)
1922 Dec 34,858M/P 00.7401(per) BOJ 2003 Feb 46,000Yen 6.09(per)
1923 Jan 83,190M/P 00.3101(per) BOJ
1923 Feb 130,750M/P 00.1973(per) BOJ
1923 Mar 99,526M/P 00.2592(per) BOJ
Buy a gold, sell a yen.
D-Ani

http://www.reuters.comFed's Gramlich: Iraq Impact 'Imponderable'
By Kevin Krolicki -March 6, 2003
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) -Excerpt: "Federal Reserve Board Governor Edward Gramlich said on Thursday that the impact of a war with Iraq on the U.S. economy was impossible to forecast, calling it a "big imponderable."
While standard economic theory has held that war is generally stimulative, that does not account for a conflict that could drive oil prices higher, shake investor confidence or be carried out in the absence of a major surge in wartime production, Gramlich told a group of business economists in Los Angeles.
"I think the state of play now is that nobody is quite sure whether a war in general or a particular kind of war that you can imagine would be positive for aggregate demand or not," Gramlich said in response to a question. "I think that at this point is a big imponderable. The older kind of reasoning I'm sure is obsolete ... but whether it is totally dead wrong is another question.""

This morning Saudi officials said that they cannot produce anymore. Actually they probably could but at some point over production could damage a reservoir so that ultimate maximum production may never be achieved. That is what happened to much of Russian and former Soviet states during the Soviet era. The Saudis have not had any major "Super Giant" discoveries for several decades and they are very cagey about giving any information about production. About 10 years ago the Saudis produced 10.5 million bbl/day at full capacity and today they admit that production has fallen to 9.2 million bbl/day at full capacity. Apparently some reservoirs are in decline and reserves have not been replaced with enough production to make up the difference. This would not be all that surprising as they are also notorious quota cheaters. How much more production capacity do the Saudis have at higher costs? No one but the Saudis know, however, today's admission and recommendation that the world tap their strategic petroleum reserves should be a booming wake up call to governments, the petroleum markets and the oil industry. But we may never really know the whole story here. Some here may remember that I said OPEC was producing at or near capacity even as OPEC was spinning the story that they would "open the spiggots" in case of war. I for one was very skeptical.

Most of their (Saudi) production comes from reservoirs that are over 60 years old. These reservoirs are huge and lifting costs are very cheap (about $2.bbl). That's not to say that other producers on the peninsula have reached peak production. Iraq for example has a lot of virgin ground that may hold potential for increased production. That's why France, Germany, Russia, and China are opposed to war because they have supported Saddam Hussein's terror over the Iraqi people with $billions in loans and for oil concessions. They know that a new government may not look favorably on repaying the loans or the land concessions but would more likely be more favorable to US, UK, Spanish, and Italian interests and those that help them remove Saddam. The opposition to war has absolutely nothing to do with peace and diplomacy but for access to a large source of "cheap oil". The very survival of each player's economy depends on it. Some have aligned themselves with Saddam and others against Saddam. The stakes are obvious.

- Black Blade

Correct subject line below: "The older kind of REASONING I'm sure is obsolete..."
Maybe a reporter will take this story and run with it: "Fed governor sees no war stimulus." OOPS!

Somehow I don't think currency is an issue with the North Korean ruler. He is supposedly an old line Stalinist. He takes good care of his friends and military at the expense of his subjects. The people are starving and worked to death while he reportedly has his large porn collection and subjects for his personal enjoyment and benefit. Should the North take over the South he would treat the South Koreans the same way as those in the north and claim anything of value as his own personal property and anything else left over going to his cronies and military. But apparently many in the South want that kind of government. I figure good enough, let them go it alone and deal with it themselves if that's what they want -- it's their country. They obviously don't want our troops there to keep the peace. It sure beats me.

- Black Blade

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=2340646snip:

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Thursday lifted force majeure on his country's oil exports after an opposition strike and announced a fiercely nationalistic oil strategy that would shut out "enemies of the nation."
-------
Former paratrooper Chavez said the government would revise all of PDVSA's operations, including all of its contracts and investments, to forge a new-look nationalist oil strategy that would seek to put the interests of the country first.

He made clear that private firms which had supported the crippling two-month opposition strike would be not be allowed to participate in the oil industry in the future.

"We cannot continue playing the innocent and keep on handing over strategic areas to enemies of the country," the populist president said.

He singled out a U.S.-controlled technology company, Intesa -- 60 percent owned by Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) -- which he had previously accused of joining in sabotage of PDVSA's central computer network.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmdGaRTTU0VDIEZh
Snippit:

Washington, March 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission officials say they're concerned that companies are obscuring their pension losses in federal filings and giving investors incomplete information. ``There was a general lack of informative transparent disclosure,'' says Carol Stacey, chief accountant of the SEC's division of corporation finance. She says she reviewed more then 500 annual reports for 2001 with her staff. ``We strongly encourage companies to remedy this in future filings.'' Companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost more than $200 billion in the past two years in pension investments without clearly disclosing those losses in SEC filings, according to studies by investment banks Credit Suisse First Boston and UBS Warburg LLC. Over the past five months, 12 companies, including General Motors Corp. and International Business Machines Corp., said they had reduced shareholder equity by $40 billion to account for pension deficits.

Black Blade: I touched on this before. There are going to be some huge losses this year as companies struggle to fund pension plans and many won't be able to. Business is currently lobbying Congress to change the law to let them off the hook at the expense of their employees. "Ugly"

Saw a message yesterday on how to become a poster yesterday and after almost three years of lurking decided to sign up to post to this fine site. Just returned to the United States after spending 8 years in Japan, and the US economy looks like heaven compared to Japan. Not to say everything is fine here, as I have been reading this site for three years, but in all honesty Japan has been a walking corpse since 1999 and its only a matter time before they pull the whole world down with them.

All the stories about the Japanese waiting outside of the gold shops is true. Saw a little old man walk into a gold shop with a backpack full of yen and walk out and get into a taxi with what looked like at least 15-20 l kilo bars of gold. Have also personally waited in line over two hours to buy gold one afternoon in Tokyo. After CNBC Nikkei lost all their internet advertisers, the main advertisers were Tanaka Kikinzoku and other Gold related investments. Am actually shocked how the news here does not display or rarely talk about the POG. In Japan it was mentioned in every news show and on the financial shows it's price was quoted right after the day's yen-dollar exchange rate. Guess tptb here have too much to loose if price of gold rises and the ptb in Japan have too much to loose if it does and they did not make it an option when their banks fail in April.

Really do see many similarities with the US economic situation and Japan. We are several years behind them with a similar situation of debt overhang will occur. Money becomes so cheap to borrow, but no one will borow or lend because there are limited opportunites to provide a decent return. Waiting for the housing bubble to burst in the US and it will, maybe not this year probably next. Thing to understand here is that it usually does not just implode. It is a long drawn out and painful event. Most of the buying in Japan occured years after the stock market tanked. Probably up to 1993-4. Then a funny thing happened. No one was buying any more as an investment. Then the price started going down, slowly, slowly slowly 5-10% a year. Year after year, 9 years in a row and still to this day 5-10% per year depending on your location.

Might have paid a million for your house ( shoebox ) and still owe 750k, but if you try to sell it, if you are lucky, maybe 350-400k tops. So what happens is you sell it and still owe 350k to the bank. The 2.2% iterest on home loans lessens the pain, but it is still a burden nevertheless. Needless to say, I am renting, with no plans to buy a house for several years to come. All that money on house maintanance etc I save I can put into AU.

and perhaps the dollar.Thanks for the added data DummyANI, and the explanation.---quite graphic! Continual deterioration for a decade seems to indicate either a lack of means to reverse the trend, or lack of a social/political context to implement a solution.

You state that the housing bubble is the fundamental problem in the Japanese banking system. I wonder if that will not become the case in the US? Hitherto the problem has been over-investment in the stock market (now at about 6o per cent of its highs), easy credit (causing mal-investment and over-investment), and more recently a weakening of the dollar. With many real estate loans locked in at quite low rates, I fear that a rise in interest rates (to prevent foreign investments on the dollar from melting away) will explode the housing market and banks will be left with increasing and eventually insupportable non-performing assets. If Japan could not solve the problem after ten years of struggle, will the US do any better?

Tokyo, March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks fell, driving the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to a 20-year low. Exporters such as Sony Corp. declined after President George W. Bush said the U.S. doesn't need United Nations backing to attack Iraq, heightening concern a war will damp growth in the world's largest economy.

The Nikkei fell 204.94, or 2.5 percent, to 8164.21 as of 1:42 p.m. in Tokyo. The average fell to its lowest intraday level since March 1983. The Topix index fell 17.48, or 2.1 percent, to 798.74. The index fell below 800 for the first time since August 1984.
_____________
I wonder if the DOW could go to its 1983 level?

I thought 900 would trigger a banking crisis but maybe the
banks can just keep surviving.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets are awash in red tonight following in US markets footsteps. In the US individual investors simply have walked away from the stock market as continuing low volumes attest. It's not just uncertainty over war and geopolitical tensions but absolutely horrific earnings warnings from companies worldwide. Analysts will be busy writing down earnings estimates so that companies can "beat the street" estimates in the never ending game of "spin the story and fool the investor". It should get quite "interesting" over the next few weeks as the global economy slips off into oblivion.

- Black Blade

Just for fun I ran a correlation coefficient on the US dollar index and POG for the data I have this year from Jan 14 to today (n=36). I did a scatter plot first and the data points were everywhere - it was impossible to visualize a negative linear model let alone plot a trend line. I ran a correlation coefficient and got r at -.26, which suggests a very weak (nil) correlation between the movement in the US dollar index and POG since mid January (meaningless really since there's not even a linear model). And look at the POG:XAU ratio at 5.09 today. TPTB have got to be quaking in their boots - the pressure to keep the POG and the shares down has got to be explosive. I know ya'll got Gold, got seat belts?
Waverider

The size of housing bubbles is very different between Japan and USA. In 1989, a total amount of the Japanese real estates was overestimated more than two-fold of a total amount of the USA. So that more than $10 trillion USD value was lost from Japanese banks. This loss will be never happened in USA.
Today's Nikkei225 was closed at 8144 point. This is 20.9 percent level of its peak. The closed price of BOJ(Bank of Japan) was 45,600Yen/share. This is 6.04 percent level of its peak. This indicates that BOJ lost the management capability. High interest rates directly attack at Gov. bonds of BOJ. I believe that USA has no problems at all. Because USD is a key currency, FED can adopt a printing-press policy very effectively. If BOJ adopts a printing-press policy, Yen will be sky-diving very quickly.
D-Ani.

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlListing UP-DATED as of FRIDAY, 3/7/03, 00:01 Denver Time !

NOTE to CONTEST entrants -- Please check to see if your "Prognostication" number has been taken in any newly entered guess, AFTER the above posting time, just before you submit yours, so that there are not any duplications ! Thanks <;-)

**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)

**** $404.5 **** Operative (3/4/03; 13:21:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98861)

**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)

**** $399.0 **** Ananse (03/06/03; 21:16:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99033)

**** $392.5 **** physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824)

**** $388.8 **** Believer (3/4/03; 17:29:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98891)

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (02/28/03; 06:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98581)
**** $385.4 **** slingshot (02/27/03; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98555)

**** $381.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (02/27/03; 10:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98525

**** $378.0 **** Mountain Top (02/27/03; 17:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98543)

**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)
**** $377.7 **** Roccoco (3/4/03; 18:59:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98902)

**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)

**** $372.7 **** Noble1 (03/03/03; 20:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98819)

**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)

**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)

**** $362.4 **** Boilermaker (3/4/03; 15:25:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98876)

**** $360.8 **** VanRip (03/03/03; 19:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98814)

**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)

**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $354.7 **** RILEY (03/06/03; 13:11:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 99016)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $344.0 **** monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787)

**** $340.0 **** kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Stock markets around the globe are awash in red.

- Black Blade

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures are sharply lower, the USD about to go sub 98, gold is flat, oil and NatGas are higher. Should be "entertaining" on Wall Street today.

- Black Blade

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/030307/auto_incentives_1.html
Snippit:

DETROIT (AP) -- Incentives on new cars and trucks rose 10 percent in February from the month before, but the financing deals and cash-back offers weren't enough to stave off a disappointing sales month -- a sign the enticements may be losing their effectiveness.

Black Blade: Tapped out consumers just aren't ready to take on any more debt.

BTW, the USD just slipped below 98.

Lady Waverider,

Hour-to-hour and day-to-day correlation between POG and USDX is low, as you have observed. Some days there are roughly coincident shifts that are very suggestive, but there are too many things going on to get a very good correlation in the short term.

Suggest instead you do a simple scatter plot of POG and USDX for the last couple of years (INO show data back to June 01). No need to be fancy, just take a dozen or so weekly averages at different points along the curves so that the whole variation in POG (260 to 380) and USDX (120 to 98) is well represented in your scatter plot. There is a quite good linear relationship described by:

P = -4.35 x D + 782

where D is the USDX and P is the price of gold in US dollars.


You can check. At the moment I write this the USDX is 98, so evaluating the equation gives you P = 356, so we are roughly on track.

You may get wild excursions from this rule for up to several days (like back at the beginning of Feb), but over time the equation is good.

Please note, however, that this is an "empirical" formula deduced by fitting a straight line to the data over the last couple of years. There are no obvious underlying fundamental reasons leading to this equation, and there is no guarantee that it will hold in the future, so caveat emptor - "let the buyer beware"!

:-)

Sundeck

...hope everyone has their act together.

The man has been doing alot of soul searching lately....sure signof war. He states "we have food and medical supplies ready" for the Iraqi people. He speaks in 'done deal' tone, a psych major would have a proper term for this.

I had a sensitive post removed Saturday morning, I guess it was too hot to handle. Too bad Bush blew the chance to end this morbid war game in Tora Bora.

Now he faces the biggest decision in human history....and he's made the call.

Welcome to the forum. Enjoyed your post last PM especially the description of Japanese gold buying and real estate markets. Hope to hear more from you.

Cheers,
Boilermaker

Hi, my name is Asaf and I am new to the forum. I am certainly a "precious metals bug", and my main interest in this field is about the monetary use of metals. I support the restoration of metallism in our world.
Anyhow, I love this forum, it is a very interesting place on the net, and I hope it'll continue to be so.

PS, I hope that I'll soon submit to the contest... (-:

I also found your commentary interesting. I thought I might add my own to it.

I am an American and am residing abroad right now. We are in Changzhou, China. It is a "small" city, "small" being somewhat on the high side of 1M. It is located about 75 miles east of Shanghai. We have been here 6 weeks or so. I have had a couple opportunities to price gold here. The gold I priced was in jewlry shops, but was in a bullion form -- rather like the 1Kg bars, but smaller, say 100g, or 200g. It was priced at 129RMB/g which works out to about $484/oz. The stores were not particularly busy.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/russell030803.htmlRussell On Global Affairs & the Markets
Richard Russell -March 8, 2003 -Excerpts:
"What about the economy?
Hey good news. St. Louis Fed. President William Poole said the odds of a double-dip recession in the US remains small. Right, you dunder-head, we can't have a double-dip recession because we never got out of the single dip. Surprise, we've been in a recession all along.
Today the US Labor Dept. reported that claims for unemployment have jumped to 430,000, highest for the year. This doesn't include all the workers who's unemployment pay has run out, leaving them jobless with no income at all.
Here in the Golden State, the deficit hole gets deeper by the billions of dollars.....
I do know how the moving averages are doing. Today the declining 200-day MA of the Dow stands at a new bear market low of 8550. The faster-moving 50-day MA of the Dow stands at 8194. The spread between the two has widened to 356, widest yet on the decline. On a trend basis, the Dow's decline is accelerating.....
However, my own studies tell me that the bear market in the US is still nowhere near completed. We've got a long way to go, and people are getting impatient.
In the next Dow Theory Letter I'll be going into the question of the Dow in detail. And it will not be a happy experience, I'm sad to say.....
Gold -- Looking at the daily chart of April gold, it appears that following the sharp correction following the February 5 peak of 384.50, gold tumbled. But it looks as though April gold has formed a double bottom in the 345 area. Gold has been climbing higher since it's last low of February 28 at 345.00.
The rising 200-day MA of April gold stands today at 330. The rising 50-day MA stands today at 357.30. Any close above 357.30 would constitute a "buy signal."
Incidentally, at gold's recent high of 384.50 its 200-day MA was at 326. This means that gold was 15% above its MA. As a rule, when any item if at 10% or more above or below its 200-day MA, that item is "stretched."
Currently, gold is 7% above its 200-day MA, and I continue to believe that there is a 80/20 percent chance that the correction is over....." End snippitts

ha ha, what a hoot,

when the market action (particularily gold) is this blatantly managed, as it is this morning (imho) you KNOW that you are close to a major (once in 20yr) break point!

gold may go from the "prison" to the "palace" in a move so fast that most folks will be "battin their eyes like a frog in a hail storm"!

get under cover mertle before those hail stones knock you senseless, and in a dissy state you'll want to sell yur yellur jsut before she goes.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmiUjhU3T1BFQyB0Vienna, March 7 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, producer of a third of the world's oil, will be hard pressed to prevent an Iraq war from driving crude prices beyond a recent 12-year high because members are already pumping near capacity.

Ministers at a meeting Tuesday in Vienna will probably approve a plan backed by Saudi Arabia to produce as much oil as possible should a war disrupt supply from Iraq, which pumps 9 percent of the group's output, officials and analysts said.

Oil prices last week reached the highest since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 and touched $39.99 a barrel in New York, raising fuel costs and threatening to stunt economic growth. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have the ability to help refill U.S. inventories, which set a 28-year low last month.

``There isn't enough OPEC capacity to cover the loss of Iraq,'' said Leo Drollas, deputy executive director of the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London, a consulting company founded by former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani. ``We're entering a probable war with low inventory cover. Prices could go higher still as the war drums beat louder.''
____________
Dollar falls-Gold down?

c'mon scotty (easy al) get those warp drives back on line, or this bird is goin tu succumb to the gravitational pull of that yellow fiery plant, dead ahead!

but cap't kirk (bush), we're already doin everythin we can man! i'm afraid she may melt up if pushed any further.

hyperinflate those drives scotty, that's an order.

Washington, March 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy lost 308,000 jobs in February, the most since the Sept. 11 attacks caused firings in November 2001. Unemployment approached an eight- year high as the economy stumbled amid concerns about a possible war with Iraq.

The jobless rate rose to 5.8 percent last month from 5.7 percent in January, the Labor Department said. The unexpected drop in payrolls followed an increase of 185,000 jobs in January and was the largest decline since 327,000 positions were eliminated in November 2001. Stock prices and government bond yields fell.

``These are terrible numbers,'' said Sherry Cooper, chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, who had forecast a drop in payrolls of 75,000, the most in a Bloomberg News survey. ``The U.S. economy is clearly faltering under the weight of this tremendous Iraqi situation as well as continued cost cutting among corporations.''
________
This is a bogus number, unemployment must be higher than 5.8%.

spock? if we fire every torpedo and weapon we have, could we use that to help stave off this damned "reality field" that keeps drawing us in?

maybe, maybe not sir, but its worth a try.

ok, well get on it spock.

Ouch. Looks like a Snow job today.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) -- Two sons of Osama bin Laden were arrested in southeastern Afghanistan in a joint operation involving U.S. forces, Pakistan's provincial home minister Sanaullah Zehri said. "They were arrested from Rabat area in Afghanistan," he told The Associated Press in a telephone interview. He did not identify the sons, but said that seven other Al Qaida men were killed in the operation. Zehri refused to identify which forces were involved in the operation. "They were allied forces," he said refusing to identify the nationalities of the forces involved in the operation. Rabat is at the extreme tip of southwestern Afghanistan where the Afghan, Pakistan and Iran borders meet.

IMHO part of a plan to restore confidence in the greenback by allowing foreigners to cash them in for cheap gold - who said Bretton Woods was dead.

I imagine that the aim is to discredit the French by showing that no matter how generous Uncle Sam is, they insist on opposing him. Truly a perverse people!

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - North Korea has declared a maritime exclusion zone off its coast in the Sea of Japan in a step that could signal a pending new missile test, the Defense Department said on Friday.

The department said it was aware of a three-day exclusion warning for March 8-11 declared by Pyongyang in virtually the same area where the North Koreans tested an anti-ship missile on Feb. 25.

"We are certainly aware that they have filed a notice of exclusion. That is typically a precursor to a missile test. But we're not overly concerned," said Navy Lt. Cmdr. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman.

The comments came amid rising tension in the region in a crisis over North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

Response to DummyANI #: 99047)I do not argue with the assertion that Japan's yen is in more immediate trouble that the US dollar. But it is an exaggeration to say, "I believe that USA has no problems at all. Because USD is a key currency, FED can adopt a printing-press policy very effectively."

The US has adopted printing press policy "very effectively", for nearly the past decade. Much of the new dollars and credit found its way into the stock market, lifting it to values nearly unthinkable at the time of the last Gulf War---for a time the rise appeared exponential. And much found its way into the coffers of the great exporting nations of the Far East, as the US trade deficit grew to values nearly unthinkable a decade ago.

This "effective" printing press policy however has had consequences of driving manufacturing abroad, imperiling the retirement savings of the elderly, and providing an investment atmosphere in the US wherein for the past year nearly the only investment "promising" reasonable returns has been real estate. Granted that this does not rival Japan's bubble, but it is all the US has right now. Consumerism is all that is driving the US economy at present, and that consumerism is fed by the real estate bubble. The effects WILL be felt in due time, and there are signs that time is not far off.

The statement that the "FED can adopt a printing-press policy very effectively", is in concurrence with august company: FED officials Greenspan and Bernanke, who have made similar statements this year. But the effectiveness of this policy in the future appears to be dependent on willingness of US markets to consume ever more foreign imports, and the willingness of these foreign exporters to continue piling up US dollars which are being inflated at an expanding rate. The US consumers are becoming afraid, and their purchases are being made not quite so carelessly, as US unemployment increases and household and government debt breaks new records almost monthly.

The dollar prices of non-manufactured articles have been rising, as evidenced by upward moves in the commodities indices. There are powerful forces indicating trouble ahead for the dollar, and talk of a "printing press policy" tends to increase those forces.

http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AFGHAN_BIN_LADENS_SONS?SITE=FLTAM&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULTAlthough I would love to hear that bin Laden and sons etc were indeed captured ...

"In Washington, U.S. counterterrorism officials strongly disputed the claim. They said they had no information that would suggest any of the sons had been detained.

A U.S. official told an AP Radio reporter at the White House: "We, in fact, think it's wrong."

These guys ARE pretty amazing.

How do YOU interpret volatility?

Good morning Sundeck. Yes, I agree with you. The correlation is normally strong, I got r -9.4 for the data I have for last year. As I record the data each day it seemed to me that the pattern had changed recently - a wild excursion as you say, or a small cluster of outliers. However it makes one wonder why. I agree, short term data needs to be interpreted cautiously, and the long term trend is they key. Cheers,
Waverider

On CNBC they run the "ticker" on stocks. I understand Red (arrow) is down, Green (arrow) is up. What do the colors white, black, gold and yellow mean? Most times these other colors appear near or after the market is closed. Sometimes there is an arrow other times not.

Sorry to bother you ladys and gentlemen with something so minor but I can't find anyone who knows the answer to my question.

http://www.paknews.com/top.php?id=1&date1=2003-03-07Certainly is good timing regarding report of bin Laden sons capture ...plus there is a story in Pakastani News...quoting BBC!!!...that Bush was going to announce bin
Laden's capture

Again..if true...great... BUT it sure came in handy this morning when employment numbers shocked and market started free fall

I had never believed in conspiracy theories...sure I felt that there was market gamesplaying but not all out coordinated government related conspiracy

I hate to say that I now believe it is very likely ...too many coincidences at "right" time for me

More glad than ever that I hold the "real" thing.... gold!!

I have found a worthy educational tool is to take and defend the opposite side of what you personally believe.This really opens up your mind.My first experience with this was when I had to defend Stalins policies during the early part of his rule.In our forum here put yourselves into the mind of someone seeking to destroy real money.KNOW YOUR ENEMY

*****369.50*****
Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because it was SOOOO cheap. The BOP only wanted these little pieces of paper printed in the USA with engravings of US presidents on them for the gold. (They aren't even rare; the government prints billions of them every day!) I admit they were rather artistic pieces of paper, but paper none the less. Anytime anyone wants to trade paper for gold, go for it. Can you imagine someone trading pieces of paper for 30 tonnes of gold! I wouldn't have done it if it was the kid down the block for fear of taking advantage of him, but the BOP is supposed represent intelligent, sophisticated folks. Paper for gold. How could I not trade!

Richard Russell says: "Amazing that there are still more bullish than bearish advisors. I've never seen anything like it. Is there anything that will turn investors bearish?"

--There is no real surprise to this at all, because, although there are exceptions, the general rule is that if an investor does not do his own research, the investment news that he hears will be in the interest of those delivering the investment news. The more research one does on one's own, the more likely it is that the information one finds will be in his own interest.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow (weekend) will bring.

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http://www.cnn.com COMMENTARY The Bottom Line
Buffett to investors: Do nothing
The Oracle of Omaha says to stay on the sidelines -- you should listen. More on Quattrone.
March 7, 2003: 11:35 AM EST
By Adam Lashinsky, CNN/Money Contributing Columnist
PALO ALTO, Calif. (CNN/Money) -Excerpt: "For two days running earlier this week the most popular article by far on this Web site was Fortune magazine's exclusive preview of Warren Buffet's annual letter to his shareholders.
The Oracle of Omaha went on at some length about derivatives, a real messy topic that even his clear, homespun English didn't completely clean up.
Here's the short version: Derivatives are really complicated financial instruments that nobody totally understands, that corporations use too much and that Buffett thinks are going to be a real problem going forward for the stock market. Journalists have a tried and true method of dealing with messy topics. They ignore them. That's why most of the press coverage surrounding Buffett's annual pronouncement focused not on his comments on derivatives, but rather on what the great man had to say regarding stocks.
That's not so outrageous. After all, Buffett is one of the greatest investors of the last half a century. And really, slavish coverage in glossy national magazines notwithstanding, the statement isn't an exaggeration.
And again, Buffett had a handful of interesting things to say about the market, including that he's been dabbling of late in junk bonds.
But perhaps the most interesting sentence in the whole thing was this one: "Occasionally, successful investing requires inactivity."
Think about that for a second. The man who loves investing like a sumo wrestler loves eating rice is suggesting your best investment strategy of the moment is to do nothing.
"Despite three years of falling prices, which have significantly improved the attractiveness of common stocks, we still find very few that even mildly interest us," Buffett writes. What he is saying is that despite exhaustive research and three years of market declines, he can't find many stocks he'd like to buy. And that includes not adding to the positions of companies he already owns.
You don't need to be a rocket scientist -- or even a serial acquirer of insurance companies -- to realize that if one of our era's great investors is sitting on the sidelines, perhaps you should be too..."
Adam Lashinsky is a senior writer for Fortune magazine. Send e-mail to Adam at lashinskysbottomline@yahoo.com.

After every president's speech,they hit gold.After Bush says,"We are going to war.",gold goes down?I'd hate to be A so callled gold analyst now.All markets now are wacked.I started laughing when Bush said,"i believe in a free market".Firstly,it wasnt free to many investors.Secondly,they are so heavily manipulated now they may never be free again.Start rumour,hit gold,pump dow.Wait till something really happens.Maybe they can control the markets,but they cant control the world.

http://www.cnnfn.comThis link provides the joint CNN-Money magazine page on which the story may be accessed. The long address of the article does not show completely on my low-power, web-tv computer, but the above link is one step away.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=1DXWSXGWYDZ4OCRBAEOCFFA?type=topNews&storyID=2344289WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Congress's fiscal watchdog will provide a sharp reminder to lawmakers on Friday of the scale of the problems they face as they begin their annual budget debates next week.

In its annual review of President Bush's budget, the Congressional Budget Office is expected to predict that his plans to cut taxes and boost military spending will generate more than $2 trillion in federal deficits in the next decade.

The report, due to be sent to lawmakers on Friday evening, will likely also boost the CBO's own forecasts of a $199 billion deficit in 2003 and $145 billion shortfall in 2004 by around $30 billion, lawmakers and aides have said.

The White House has already predicted government deficits of over $300 billion this year and in 2004, easily surpassing the previous 1992 record of $290 billion in dollar terms.

"We're now looking at deficits that will be large for the next five to 10 years, and gargantuan thereafter," said former CBO Director Robert Reischauer, now head of the Urban Institute think tank. "The outlook is a sea of red ink."
___________
The facts support gold for many years to come.

Yes, a little birdie told me that today is YOUR special day! So a HAPPY BIRTHDAY to you good Sir - may you have a Golden day filled with family, friends, and good health! And a special Thank You for your continued generosity and leadership in hosting this fine forum! Cheers,
Waverider

""We are achieving our goal of building a more prepared nation, one individual, one family,
one neighborhood, one community at a time," Ridge said."
Director of Homeland Security

Makes you feel warm all over doesnt it? Golly, that is going to be a huge mountain of Duct Tape. Although I admit that I am still having trouble connecting the dots, (guess that is why I am not the Director of Homeland Security)as to how all that Duct Tape is going to protect me from falling stock market, falling dollar value, huge government/private debt, funky accounting methods, higher gasoline prices, higher taxes (somebody has got to bail out the local, city, county, state, and fed budgets)underfunded pension funds, increased medical coverage, increasing insurance premiums, etc. Wow! I'm just happy that there is no inflation. Phew!

Anyway, I think I will continue with my own plan. I have named it after Black Blade: Plan "B".

Get out of debt, stash a little cash, increase food supplies, and fill up more matchboxes with gold and silver.

OK, all you Hobbits -- TOGETHER NOW .....
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU !
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU !
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO SIR MK,
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU !!!!!!
<;-)

Wishing you a Golden Day and success in all you do.
Slingshot--------<>

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030307/markets_futures_fed_1.htmlCHICAGO, March 7 (Reuters) - Federal fund futures at the Chicago Board of Trade rallied on Friday, suggesting a renewed chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, after a surprise fall in U.S. payrolls eroded hopes for an economic recovery. ...the U.S. job market lost 308,000 jobs in February ...the largest drop since November 2001. The jobless rate rose to 5.8 from 5.7 percent.

The weak report triggered a spike in Fed funds futures, which are used by some analysts to gauge future Fed rate moves.

"It looks like they're seriously pressing the Fed to ease again," said Joe Giagrande, bond trader at Gelber Group. "It looks they've got about a 35 to 40 percent chance for a quarter point ease by the March (Fed policy) meeting. Before the numbers, I expect they had about a 25 percent chance."

"When you get above 30 percent, the market is kind of serious about a potential ease," Giagrande said. "The expectations have broken into a more serious level."

May Fed funds futures were up 7.5 basis points after the jobs data release, reflecting a 75 percent chance of a rate cut by the May Fed policy meeting...

-----(see url for article)----

As a policy item the Fed can make the price of money (overnight fed funds) as cheap as they want, but with it comes the risk that purchasing power is lost, making longer term bonds less attractive as investments without a compensating rise in yeild -- brought about by a fall in their market price. Bonds, then, are by no means an infallible safe haven when you're looking for security against being rendered financially destitute by policy measures (and world events) beyond your control.

Call MK and his staff at Centennial for assistance on a gold diversification program that is right for your personal circumstances. 1-(800) 869-5115

R.

MK,
A very happy birthday to the King of the USAGOLD Castle!
Simply

With market in overnight money (fed funds) trading this morning at 1.188 percent, well below the Fed's own target rate of 1.25 percent, the Fed nevertheless participated in the open market, accepting bids for cash at prices as low as 1.190 percent today.

In total, the Fed provided a fresh $2 billion to the high power money supply (i.e., banking reserves) with today's operation using over-the-weekend repurchase agreements.

R.

All together now....hut...hut...hut...hut...

i don't know but i've been told-
I DON'T KNOW BUT I'VE BEEN TOLD!
someone here is get'n old-
SOMEONE HERE IS GET'N OLD!

i don't know but i have heard-
I DON'T KNOW BUT I HAVE HEAR!
someone's eyes are get'n blurred-
SOMEONE'S EYES ARE GET'N BLURRED!

i don't know but i believe-
I DON'T KNOW BUT I BELIEVE!
someone's ears will soon deceive-
SOMEONE'S EARS WILL SOON DECEIVE!

i don't know but its been said-
I DON'T KNOW BUT ITS BEEN SAID!
someone's face is get'n red-
SOMEONE'S FACE IS GET'N RED!

sound off-
1! 2!

sound off-
3! 4!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY
HAPPY
BIRTH! DAY!

test

Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
UP-DATE on POG CONTEST "KING of the HILL" status ! <;-)
<<<< SNIP >>>>
**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)
**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)
---

Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
2/28/03 GC3J HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 OI = 105,993
3/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 OI = 104,153
3/04/03 GC3J HIGH = $354.9 low = $349.5 Settlement = $353.3 Change +$4.0 OI = 105,279
3/05/03 GC3J HIGH = $358.8 low = $352.3 Settlement = $353.2 Change -$0.1 OI = 106,349
3/06/03 GC3J HIGH = $357.4 low = $352.6 Settlement = $356.9 Change +$3.7 OI = 106,444
3/07/03 GC3J HIGH = $358.7 low = $347.0 Settlement = $350.9 Change -$6.0 OI = ?

===
Contest FIRST DAY, 2/28, Sir Kevin$ was "King of the Hill"
Contest SECOND DAY, 3/3, Sir Kevin$ was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!
Contest THIRD DAY, 3/4, Sir Zelts was "King of the Hill" !!!
Contest FOURTH DAY, 3/5, Sir Zelts was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!!!
Contest FIFTH DAY, 3/6, Sir Liberty Head was "King of the Hill" !!!!!
Contest SIXTH DAY, 3/7 Sir Zelts RETURNS AGAIN to be the "King of the Hill" !
===
ABOUT FOUR days remain to Enter the CONTESTS.
Put on your thinking HAT and prepare to make your PROGNOSTICATIONS soon !
<;-)

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlJoin the FUN and become "wealthy" at the same time !! <;-)
===
Just enter either or BOTH Portions of the new CONTEST, and WIN "FREE" Gold and/or Silver !!! To enter, you must have a Free "POSTING PASSWORD". BUT, IF you do not now have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD) --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK above ! He makes it easy and painless too. There WILL be FREE GOLD and Silver given away for the BEST ESSAY and most accurate Price Of Gold (POG) Prognostications.
===
THANKS for all you new posters that have joined us at the FORUM -- I'm sorry to not have been able to "GREET" you personally.
<;-)

Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold and I did it because I wanted to leave as a legacy a statue of myself. The statue will be carved from beautiful stone and now I can add even more grandeur because parts will be made of gold.
I surmise that many thousands of years from now that there will be anthropologists uncovering the eroding statue but to their amazement will find that parts were made of gold which was just as beautiful as when first formed.
One anthopologist will say,"This is incredible! Who was this guy? To bad he didn't place his name on the gold parts." His partner would respond," That's becasue these are private parts."

I'm happy to see the New York paper punters have done another favor for Gold buyers like us. If you can keep your head about you, and it really is that simple, load up with gratitude!

It's like this. Can you imagine anyone sitting around yesterday thinking for all the obvious reasons, "Hmmmm... I think I should get me some (more) Gold tomorrow," and then being dissuaded from his intended purchase because the futures boys in New York did him a pricing favor?

Sad thing is, the guys who probably need Gold the most are the same ones who have purchasing intentions that wax and wane with rising and falling prices, respectively. They're easily unnerved and never give themselves the benefits of these passing bargains.

If this sketch seems eerily familiar, like looking in a mirror, I've got a solution for you -- you need to put your wife in charge of buying your Gold. She'll get the job done right for you timid gents. You don't have to take my word for it... talk to her! (But first prepare yourself to be humbled in the art of value shopping.)

Gold. Get you some with a little help from the little lady. --- Aristotle

PS. If the rumor be true, a hearty 'Happy Birthday!' to MK!

NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - COMEX gold futures plunged more than 2 percent on Friday, as investors dumped safe haven positions on talk of reports that sons of fugitive al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden had been arrested in a raid in Pakistan.

At 1023 EST (1523 GMT) benchmark April gold was down $6.20 at $350.70 an ounce after bottoming at $347.

Early Friday it rose to $358.70 on news of a shocking 308,000 drop in February non-farm payrolls.

Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold and I did it because....I felt sorry for the Portuguese holding all that gold. A lot of other countries in the world are racing to sell all the gold that they have before the world runs out of paper money. It's not like paper isn't abundant and grows on trees? It takes a lot of effort to turn a tree into paper, put some ink and numbers on it and call it money, just ask any good counterfeiter. So please everyone, chip in and relieve the world's central banks of their gold so they can pay down debt, have a bonfire, or buy Sir Alan and the bullion bankers a nice present.

Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it because the fiat paper system has a freaking fraudulent nature which is used to tax people out of their control and perception... not fair, and I don't like playing unfair games... you know, I'm not a chimp!
And let's face the truth, have these bureaucrats ever made a good investments in their life? Selling low buying high, that's their role to stabilize the system. So, they are selling and I'm buying it, and I'm gonna buy even more if their selling pressure pushes the POG to 335 again next week. Let me put my hands on another true gift, 30 tonnes is not enuf for me, my truck has still some empty room and it screams to get filled. Bwwwwaaaaaa. Want more.

Happy Birthday MK. What kind of investment climate is this.Everything is going down or stuck where its at.Investments that usually move in opposite directions are moving down together even when a commodity goes up in price stocks and mutual funds that invest in that sector go down this is a very strange investment enviroment.I do not have alot of experience but even i can see this.Physical metal looks to me like a safe port in this storm.

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlSnip
"The U.S. dollar continues to weaken under crushing debt and growing deficits. This trend will continue, possibly indefinitely, as foreign investors withdraw from U.S. dollar investments. Gold will remain supported as the dollar weakens regardless of sideshow events like war in Iraq, nukes and missiles in North Korea, terrorist bombings in SE Asia and chasing wisps of smoke like today's debunked al Qaeda rumor. In the end it's really about the dollar."

Did you sell a little of your stash today to buy yourself a present?

OK, I admit that I bought Portugal's gold. After viewing "Swordfish" for the umpteenth time, I figured John Travolta's $9 Bn stash was insufficient for properly fighting terrorism and wanted to back him up with some less depreciative funding, knowing the ENRON proceeds will need to remain invisible a lot longer due to litigation. Now that I've let the cat out of the bag, I suspect the guys that were after Mel Gibson in "Conspiracy Theory" will be watching me much more closely.

$369.0

-Goldilox

Happy Birthday MK.....

I forgot how we met, but I was thinking about it a this morning and realized that I forgot....probably had something to do with gold.....

I'm going to tell a little story and then .... thank you in context

Back in the early 90's , I recieved a gift of Market Wizards if memory serves.... There was a sketch on a figure in that book...

There's a record in the book of a man who was very succesful trader in some commodity.... the interviewer
asked what gave him the drive to become all that he had achieved in his profession....

His response was approximately " I don't want to have my child(ren) come to me one day in the future and ask me why I didn't do everything in my power to prepare against all eventualities...."

I had very small children at the time ( 7, 4, 5, 12, and
-1) in 1992, all boys) I internalized what the man said in the above quote....

In my heart I identified that I was scared and vanquished the fear and said in my prayer, I need to have solid information and good sources of information to light my path in the financial jungle....GOd send me people that can help me in this area.....

You , in this respect , have been an answer to prayer..

Thank you

The day I said that prayer was a turning point in my life, and much later also was the day that I decided to quit drinking caffienated coffee .





Someone did a report on Drudge this morning on Pres Bush's speech , said he wasn't him self and alluded to the fact that he might have taken a pill.....

That would not be where I would be going in a time like this but I'm afraid that the Pharmaceutical industry may have undermined the thinking and reasoning ability of the populace as accountants have undermined the financial statements of Corporate america..... and the battle on the integrity of the rock that is America continues......

Korea is on the "in your face campaign " to make clear what their missile capability is ......

there is an appropriate analagous scene in the movie
TOMBSTONE when Wyatt Earp has just gone in the street
and apprehended Curly Bill Brocie .... Ike Clanton walks
up on Wyatt Earp to challenge him and demand that Wyatt
Earp let go of Curly Bill and then Wyatt drew his
revolver and put it between Ikes eyes on his forehead.
Someone in the crowd said to Ike that Wyatt was bluffing.
Ike was looking into the eyes of Wyatt Earp and he got
very still and serious and Ike said "HE'S NOT BLUFFING!"

All this .... on the eve of America's Iraqi ADVENTURE...

Some of Bushes speech last night and his reference to GOD
and the individual rights of all people to be free ....
took me back to MANIFEST DESTINY in early American history

That was the justification (propoganda ) utilized for taking the land and killing the savage indians .... George's dad said something about 1000 points of light and a kinder and gentler nation..... How ironic

From a position of faith .....I can go along with the idea of every one getting a shot at freedom the essence of which is Spiritual....Many believe that is the destiny of our country .....to liberate the captive ......I hope that we , and our leaders are not sending out the wrong message...

There is something else that is crawling up the back of my brain that i would like to add , however .....which pertains to history.....

THe arabs invited multinational oil companies into the region decades ago and made deals .... with those companies ( that is the free enterprize system isn't it? this for that)
After those companies helped them drill and devlop those oil fields that were discovered there...because of someone I believe whose descent is not middle eastern....the arabs kicked the companies out of their countries......
their have been dirty tricks and behind the scenes monkey business from Arab States and US intelligence.....
However, most recently , it is implied that much funding that comes from the oil fields below Saudi Arabia has been funneled to Terrorist Organizations....one of which successfully attacked the US and cut off the lives of thousands....MEN WOMEN AND CHILDREN....FAMILIES , HEARTS,
SOURCES OF LOVE SUPPORT AND VISION ( a looking after)for CHILDRENS' futures.......

THE Arab States colluded together to see this thing done..
and they used natural resources to fund a heinous act...
which they will continue to do might makes right or some bs and the end justifies the means ( Machiavelli)

I guess taking their oil away is tantamount to taking guns way from teenagers in gangs....

They were irresponsible so they're going to loose their toys.

I think that the N Koreans are going to be suprised at what
their going to get......in the form of new technology to deal with their threats....

and now on to the topic of

CBS HIRING BILL CLINTON>>>>>for entertainment.....

SOme of you are no doubt aware of the alleged report that a NOrth Korean Warhead was found in Alaska......in addition
tonight on K there is a report of some N Korean Spokesman
bragging about raining down missiles all over american cities...they have the missiles to reach "any" american city he claims.......

It is rumored or perhaps documented that BILL CLINTON in conjunction with Loral corp gave missile and launch technology to the Chinese .........who are backing NK
If one of the NK missiles hits US soil......
BILL CLINTON will be tried for treason........ which should have happened years ago.....

Good Evening all....

That is a well-worded point to make about trying to think how your adversary makes their moves and one i have pondered several times. I personally, for what it's worth believe that these strange reverse prices movements that go against past market history are showing that TPTB are accumulating (some personally and others for their institutions) as much physical PM's as they can and desperately trying to unwind as many hedges and derivatives as possible. Maybe the best way i can explain it is that us and TPTB (PPT) are playing monopoly. They own all the residential properties and have hotels on every one of them. All we hit and bought were the railroads. But, all we roll with the dice are sevens and tens or fives and tens, landing on our own railroads and never paying rent(fees and interest) to them. All they roll are fives and tens and are slowly losing their money to us but collecting 200 more when they pass go (Fed pump and Treasury print) which is keeping them in the game longer than we would like. When they finally run out of monopoly money to play the rent on our railroads(gold and silver) that will be the time where they will have to fold, trade us a property so the game can continue a little longer or makes changes to the rules (like making us roll with one dice). Little do they realize that we can still roll fives at will and avoid their rents (for we have physical) We do not have total control over that five roll that will put us in jail (govt confiscation) though and let us hope that is not one of the rule changes in the future!

Oops. was not finished, accidently hit the submit icon.
I used the monopoly comparision because i believe that many of the CB's and institutions (using Fed pump dollars) have been so successful so long that they are animated, it truly is a game to them. They have been manipulating the rules for so long that they have lost sight of what happens if they lose and how it will affect the real world. So many people and nations on this planet have played their adjusted monopoly game for so long and landed on their (hotels) so many times that there never will be enough "Paper" to pay all the rents due. Lots of countries, businesses and common folks can't pay and many of them soon will Not pay! Those of us with physical will not roll their numbers and pay the fees. We just have to have the fortitude to wait for them to run out of paper!
Was also catching up on the posts and saw where you were asking about sterling silver. I have never had much experience buying old flatware and sterling pieces but did occasionaly run across private mint bars. Just take the spot price times .925 and you will get the silver value of sterling bars. But remember that when you sell that dealers usually do not pay any premiums on these bars and you or they will have a bigger spread to make up because of increased refining costs.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB5F3C0CD%2DFA3B%2D4208%2DAE78%2D1D519F730A57%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

Investors, instead of curling up inside their highly mortgaged cocoons, are registering alarm at the incessant declines of their holdings. They appear to be heeding, albeit slowly, the warnings of solid researchers such as Barry B. Bannister at Legg Mason Wood Walker. Bannister, embarking on a series of reports on the outlook for inflation the next 12 years, says simply, "We do not see a sustained change in direction that consistently favors equities until around 2015." Bannister, a capital goods analyst, gets little attention from Wall Street. Yet his research, and his conviction, are compelling. Debt in all sectors of America's economy, when measured against gross domestic product, is about where it was in 1933, just before the United States began a 20-year process of cheapening its dollar assets and thus "reflating" its economy. At the heart of sensible researchers such as Bannister is the belief that an accelerated pace of inflation, and America's $30-plus trillion of debt floating around the globe, will sink stocks and most bonds and other paper assets. Not the coming war in Iraq. Not terrorism, politics or sightings of hostile globs from outer space. At some point, says Bannister, $1 of new debt will have absolutely no "incremental positive effect" on the American economy. That point, says the former co-chief for U.S. equity research at SBC Warburg, will come in the year 2014. Bannister is Wall Street's worst nightmare. He's all about a world where investors seek out safe-money strategies and hard assets -- and sidestep anything that comes in the shape of a certificate or broker confirmation.


In the past 36 months, the rising price of gold has put 75 percentage points between itself and shares of J.P. Morgan Chase, which trade on the New York Stock Exchange. "A sharply rising gold price will most likely ignite J.P. Morgan Chase's $26 trillion of derivatives into some kind of blow-up mode," Bill Murphy tells me on the eve of the full Warren Buffett state-of-the-union address, due from that insurance executive's shareholders on Saturday.

Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A) Buffett this week sounded like the Italian poet Dante Alighieri in painting the world of derivatives as an inferno. The summary: Abandon all hope of leaving, you who pass through the derivatives gates. "Let's see: stocks overvalued and offering more risk than reward," observes Robert Bishop, editor of 20-year-old Gold Mining Stock Report ."The dollar in a confirmed major bear market. Derivative poster-child gold rising. It's not exactly a great leap to conclude that Monday's business sections may indeed be telling us of Berkshire Hathaway's newfound exposure to that best known of contra-cyclical investments, gold."


Black Blade: Good article - As I said before, it comes down to a weak US dollar. The dollar and the equities markets are stuck in a long term secular bear market that will last for years. The major problem is the extraordinary massive government debt that now feeds on itself growing like a plague with no cure. It's beyond salvaging at this point. A few years ago it seemed possible to get under control but now it is impossible. I suspect a that ultimately a sharp inflationary push in a last ditch effort will be attempted but those with precious metals portfolio insurance will come out relatively unscathed. (Think Argentina, Japan, etc.)

BTW, Happy Birthday MK, I think that calls for a Negra Modelo or two, maybe even a pitcher of Fat Tire.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/03/07/rtr900822.html
Snippit:

LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Gold fell sharply in European trade on Friday, aided by talk that sons of fugitive al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden had been arrested, but took little notice of a key speech to the United Nations Security Council by chief weapons inspector Hans Blix. But the market shed around $10 in less than 30 minutes as rumours swirled that bin Laden's sons had been arrested in Pakistan. "It was quite a sobering experience for the bullish fraternity. There were about 150 things supporting gold today and it takes one story from the Khyber Pass to flummox it," said Andy Smith, precious metals analyst with Mitsui. Two sons of Osama bin Laden were wounded and possibly arrested in an operation by U.S. and Afghan troops in Afghanistan, which killed at least nine, suspected al Qaeda members, a Pakistani official said. The official said he had no information that bin Laden had been in the area at the time of the raid.

Black Blade: Let's see, gold drops $6 overall and still sits above last Friday's close and $100 above its low. The gold pit in NY close before the rumor is dispelled, equities rally and the dollar rises and that's all that happens with gold is to settle above last week's close? The weak specs cut and run � what a bunch of ninnies. Meanwhile Asian and Russian central banks and the people get are getting cheap priced physical gold for their scraps of scrip. I'm not concerned at all.

http://www.YellowTimes.org"The new Cold War Era"
Tuesday, March 04, 2003 By Jesse Lee
YellowTimes.org Guest Columnist (United States)
(YellowTimes.org) � As the American public carefully weighs whether the benefits of eliminating the possibility of Saddam Hussein giving al-Qaeda weapons outweighs the mounting list of horrors that war will bring, one crucial element has been left out of the equation. If we go to war, that remote possibility will not be eliminated; instead, it will be made absolutely certain. A CIA report that was released days before the congressional vote on Bush's resolution (undoubtedly delayed at Bush's request) stated exactly that, and yet it somehow seems completely forgotten by all sides. It is demonstrative of the complete brainwashing this country has undergone that this fact has been ignored not only by the media, politicians, and pundits, but even by the anti-war movement, which has allowed itself to be sucked into the irrelevant debate about "evidence." In reframing the debate in terms of a burden of proof, excluding all other objections, Bush has had his greatest and most crucial victory.
This is as important a point as I might make, but there are other important conclusions to be drawn from it. For one, the fact that this war will almost certainly ensure what it is supposed to prevent has certainly not escaped the administration, even if it has escaped the rest of us. Their recent decision to begin their attack with an assault on the transportation systems is undoubtedly a reaction to this problem. But they are well aware how little chance they will have of intercepting weapons outgoing from Saddam, and this means, quite simply, that this entire campaign has been a pack of lies from top to bottom. Not only the Iraq-al-Qaeda connection, not only the fictional nuclear program, but indeed every last word regarding the motivation of this war has been a lie.
The next question, of course, is what the real underlying motive might be. The "war for oil" explanation is too simple, and it does not recognize that these hawks in the administration view themselves as noble, if not great men. President Bush is enough of a simpleton to believe that he has good intentions, and all members of his administration undoubtedly view their propaganda campaign as a system of noble lies. So what is this cause so noble, which is in the best interest of America, but which citizens could simply never understand? The answer is to be found in the principles of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and The Project for the New American Century (PNAC), organizations whose platforms are American imperialism: an enormous defense budget increase, universal military presence, and imposition of American will by force and intimidation.
The signatories of this doctrine form a perfect circle around an obvious absent name -- they include Rumsfeld, Cheney, Wolfowitz, Quayle and Jeb Bush. This philosophy is the missing premise of this war; it fills in the hole in the administration's reasoning which has had most of America, including supporters of the war, so baffled for so many months. A formidable and reliable military outpost in the center of the Middle East is the first step in an imperialist agenda.
And so now the question emerges of what such a new American century would look like. Comparisons between Bush's policy and the American Cold War policy have largely been dismissed on the basis that the Cold War was about deterrence, while Bush seems to have no patience for such a strategy. This objection is rooted in a na�ve mythology about Cold War history in which the U.S. made the intelligent, even moral, decision to utilize deterrence rather than force. This interpretation misses the fundamental reality that in a situation of Mutually Assured Destruction, deterrence is not a choice; it is an unalterable stalemate in which both parties are locked. The patience and morality of U.S. policy would also be difficult to explain to Vietnamese and Korean victims of our invasions. At that time, just as is the case now, deterrence was a last resort. Bush learned the limitations of schoolyard bully politics through his embarrassing confrontation with North Korea, and indeed we seem to have resigned ourselves to "deterrence" once again.
The point here is that a Cold War political philosophy may be alive and well in our current administration, and it is imperative that we remember the perils and inhumanities of that philosophy. We must get it out on the table before our noble liars can launch America into another era of perpetual insecurity, hatred, and plunder. Such an agenda should come as no surprise coming from a neo-conservative ideology which holds up Reagan as the white knight who "won the Cold War."
And we should be very much on guard when we see Rumsfeld, the man who approved of giving Saddam bubonic plague in America's interest, directing our foreign policy. We should be very much on guard when we hear the word "terrorism" attached to various concepts in order to imply an evil in them, just as the word "communism" was used during McCarthyism (and as it is still used today). Weapons of mass destruction have become "Weapons of Mass Terror." North Korea is now a "Terrorist State." The administration and its regurgitators act as if these are recent discoveries, that the terms WMD and Rogue State were erroneous terms we mistakenly used for all of these years. These conscious attempts to manipulate our very language are the warning signs of a fear-mongering propaganda campaign that will plunge this country into decades of blind hatred and escalation. The possibility of an Israeli-Palestinian scenario on a global scale should not be discounted.
There is one more good reason to fear the worst here. If we accept that Saddam will give weapons to al-Qaeda, then we must also anticipate that a moment will come when that intelligence is leaked either by our own agencies or those of foreign governments. One must imagine that this will be an extremely dark and shameful hour for America, and in all likelihood that it will mark the effective end of Bush's political career. But if we also accept that Bush has foreseen that moment throughout his war campaign, as I think we must, then we must also anticipate that he has a game plan in place for that event. It is likely that the only way he will be able to survive that moment is to have swept the country into such frenzy that citizens forfeit their ability to self-criticize, and are willing to follow Bush down the imperialist path all the way. Whether this is a realistic goal for Bush is debatable, but we need to realize that all of the neo-conservative plans hinge on selling the American public on a new era of ideological nationalism. Bin Laden wants the Clash of Civilizations, and it appears that the administration may be willing to give it to him.
These hawks relish their position at the helms of the most powerful enterprise ever constructed by Man, and they seem to have an almost Nietzschean outlook that any power, any strength that is not fully utilized, is wasteful and disgraceful. Even beyond the disgusting morality of this philosophy, we must understand that this philosophy is not tenable. The war on terror will never be won by actually killing every terrorist, as any Israeli citizen can attest. The one lesson America has refused to learn from 9/11 is the most obvious of all. No amount of tanks, stealth bombers, or nukes can keep us safe from a world that hates us. But Bush is counting on a Cold War type escalation to keep his ship afloat, and with the way America has reacted thus far, we cannot count on the public to resist successfully. If this war is allowed to go on, the future for the next generation may be lost to a new Cold War, but you cannot deter a terrorist, and this time, deterrence will not save us.

Happy Birthday Michael Kosares!

Just been watching Bill Maher's new Realtime show. Apparently, the President had made a comment about bin Laden's sons but wasn't going to gloat over it. After all, he knows what it's like to have two of his kids arrested.......

http://www.ntrs.com/library/econ_research/weekly/Then click on: March 07, 2003

Snip; (from bottom of page)

Back on January 27th, I wrote a weekly piece entitled "What Makes Gold Glitter." In it I argued that gold prices would really get a boost when central banks around the world cut their policy rates below the going rates of inflation in their respective economies. The Fed already had done so at that time. I suggested that other major central banks were on the way to doing so. It has not happened universally yet, but major central banks are moving in that direction. The Bank of England recently cut its policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%. The year-over-year consumer inflation rate in the UK as of January was 2.73%. So, although you can still get about a 100 basis points of positive inflation-adjusted return on your short-term money in the UK, this is down from 250 basis points in June 2002. Dan Galo, our Bank of England expert, believes that another 25 basis point cut is in the works in a month or two. The ECB cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on March 6. The flash estimate for eurozone consumer inflation in February is 2.30%. So, you are earning a positive inflation-adjusted return on your money of only 20 basis points in Western Europe now versus 140 basis points back in June. Like the Bank of England, the ECB is generally expected to cut its policy rate another 25 basis points in the next month or two, which likely will result in negative inflation-adjusted return on your short-term money. Switzerland traditionally has been viewed as place where you could get a positive inflation-adjusted return on your money. But not these days. On March 6th, the Swiss National Bank announced a 50 basis-point cut in its interest rate target range, saying that it would now target a rate level of 0.25%. With Swiss February consumer inflation running around 1%, you get a negative inflation-adjusted return on your short-term money of 75 basis points. Here in the US, the Fed is targeting the overnight funds rate at 1.25% in the face of a January CPI inflation rate of 2.60%. Given the recent weakness in the US economy, the markets are now starting to price in another 25 basis cut in the funds rate in May or June. Unless there is a major reversal in energy prices, US consumer inflation is likely to be drifting still higher in the next several months, which would make the inflation-adjusted return on short-term money even more negative. It is getting more difficult to get an "honest" return on your short-term money in any major capital market. Unless conditions change radically in the near term, gold prices are likely to be retesting their early-February highs of $390.

Paul Kasriel
Director of Economic Research

Toolie; What to do with all those FRN's? Stocks continue to dive. Bonds with negative real return. Real estate equity becoming disposable income as Black Blade's "bone pile" grows. This house of cards seems to be left standing out of faith in the post war bounce alone. Since spring 2001 recovery has been only 6 months away. Anyone care to guess at the next Wall Street mantra will be, after it is no longer possible to blame our economic problems on uncertainty over Iraq?

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/cgi-bin/MasterPFP.cgi?doc=http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/030703_us_intentions.html
Snippit:

Mar. 7, 2003, 1400 PST (FTW) -Journalist Julian Darley has a very good website, www.globalpublicmedia.com, featuring video interviews with notables such as Colin Campbell and Matthew Simmons. Matthew Simmons is the president of Simmons & Co. International, a company which specializes in investment banking to the energy industry. The Campbell interview is a very informative chat at the petroleum geologist's home in County Cork, Ireland. It is well worth perusal. The Matthew Simmons interview was recorded in an office of his business suite, and is also very informative�though it is disappointing to see a person so perceptive standing firmly behind George W. Bush. However, in his interview, Matthew Simmons made two very big revelations.

In the first instance, Mr. Simmons was discussing his email correspondence with a senior assistant to former secretary of energy Bill Richardson. The senior assistant informed Mr. Simmons in 1999 that she was accompanying Secretary Richardson on a visit to every OPEC country. Mr. Simmons told her that if he was undertaking such a tour, he would ask each country what was their spare oil capacity. Upon returning to the United States, the senior assistant called Mr. Simmons and told him that she was quite shocked by the responses to this question. In country after country, she was told that they were already pumping at or near capacity. For practical purposes, OPEC has no spare capacity.

Several of my associates have suspected as much. But in this interview, Matthew Simmons verifies the fact that OPEC is already pumping at or very close to full capacity. This means that to meet growing demand, oil must be found somewhere else. And OPEC most probably cannot increase output to cover a crisis such as the Venezuelan strike, or the disruption of Iraqi oil production in the event of another Gulf War. In fact, it was only a year after Secretary Richardson made his OPEC tour that world oil production appeared to peak, beginning the cycle of rising oil prices and tanking economies which we have been in since. Though Matthew Simmons did not spell it out, this is the clearest indication to date that we are at peak oil production.

Even unnamed senior US defense officials are stating that the plan is to take the oil fields as quickly as possible, supposedly to protect them from Saddam. British troops will be used to seize the oil fields so as to thwart the appearance of a US oil grab. However, ExxonMobil is in the lead position for rehabilitating the Iraqi oil fields. Oil executives are quoted as saying there is a desperate need to find another 80 million barrels per day to meet growing oil demand. Might we add that this growing demand cannot be met elsewhere because of the abovementioned lack of spare capacity. Even after seizing Iraq's oil fields and quelling unrest throughout the country, the oil majors will find it very difficult to increase Iraqi oil production in the short term. They may even have to cut production from its current level, as Iraq has been using unsound methods to pump the amount of oil which they are currently generating.


Natural Gas

The picture for natural gas (NG) is even worse. As of February 14th, NG storage stood at 1,168 billion cubic feet (Bcf), down by 203 Bcf from the week previous. This was 868 Bcf less that a year ago and 436 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,604 Bcf. In an article in The Oklahoman, Tony Say, president of gas marketing company Clearwater Enterprises said he expects NG reserves to reach an all-time low of 600 Bcf by the end of the season. Bruce Bell, Chairman of the Mid-Continent Oil & Gas Association's Oklahoma Division, warned that once you get down to 700 Bcf there are serious doubts as to how much gas can be withdrawn. The nation's gas reserves are stored in underground caverns, where there must be a certain amount of gas to create enough pressure to force the reserves out.

Raymond James & Associates, in a recent report on natural gas, points out that NG production will continue to fall by 1.0 -1.5% per quarter for the foreseeable future. They warn that even if production returned to the feverish pitch of 2001, it would take three to six months before the new production would begin to slow down the natural declines in existing wells.30 Yet the NG rig total has hovered between 800 and 900 for the past year; at least 100 less than the number needed to meet national demand, according to Bruce Bell. Despite rising NG prices for the last couple months, work has begun on only 15 new wells. And according the Lehman Brothers, Canadian gas production is continuing to fall by as much as 4%. And this drop will coincide with a 500 million cubic feet per day decrease in NG exports to the U.S. Canadian NG demand rose in 2002 by 2 to 3% from the previous year. Net exports to the U.S. are expected to fall by 5% in 2003. Based on all of this data, the NG crunch of this year could lead to an NG crisis a year from now.


Black Blade: An interesting article though I don't necessarily agree with all of it the report does expose much of what I have been warning. 1) For all practical purposes OPEC has reached "peak" production ("Hubbert Peak"); 2) rehabilitating Iraqi wells, infrastructure, and drilling new wells will take several years; and 3) regardless of what happens between now and next winter, we are facing an energy (NatGas) crisis of epic proportions. Without abundant "cheap" energy there is no economy. Forget about an economic recovery � just ain't gonna happen!

http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/07/news/economy/merrill_fed/index.htmGold is poised to look even better to institutions and individuals eyeing real returns, safety and liquidity. With or without rate cuts, money supply increases or currency devaluations. "The dollar is the key". That statement has really been overused- to whitewash financial frauds, imbalances, inequities, abuses, and oversights, including transfer of wealth to China and banksters, government officials and speculators worldwide. Again, watch gold hold it's own despite the dollar, the yuan, euro or yen. But cutting rates can only feed gold demand, IMHO. And with the Fed caught between a rock and a hard place, raising rates would feed investment demand as well.

CNN/MoneyWeb
Merrill now expects Fed cut
Spurred by a surprisingly bad jobless report, bank's economists predict cuts in March and May.
March 7, 2003: 4:02 PM EST
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -Excerpt: "On Friday Merrill Lynch became one of the first major Wall Street firms to predict that the Federal Reserve will cut short-term interest rates at its policy meeting scheduled for March 18.
Kathy Bostjancic, Merrill's trading desk economist, and David Rosenberg, chief North American economist, in a brief research note said the Labor Department's surprisingly ugly report on Friday of 308,000 losses in non-farm payrolls in February will spur central bank policy makers to action this month and again in May.
The economists said they expect the Fed to cut its target for the federal funds rate, the overnight lending rate banks use as the basis for prime rates, to 1.0 percent from 1.25 percent in March and to cut rates to 0.75 percent at its May 6 meeting.
That, Bostjancic and Rosenberg said, would probably be the lowest the fed funds rate would go.
"If further stimulus is needed, the Fed will start buying intermediate and long-term Treasury securities," they wrote."

Yes I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold and I did it because of a misunderstanding! It all started back in 1960 when I decided to be an aviator. After 12,000 + hours of the high pitch whine of turbine engines and the ungodly racket that helicopters can create, over the years my hearing is all but trashed! Being the vain person that I am, I had rejected seeking help for my hearing. I first noticed that it was getting serious when I had an early morning flight and was running late. I decided to stop at a popular fastfood joint for a quick breakfast. After placing my order, the kindly little 'ole lady said: "You can get supersized for 39 cents more." What I thought she said: "You can get circumcised for 39 cents more." My answer: Lady, I don't care if you're doing it for free, I don't want it done! Besides, I'am already running late!"
Now about the Portugal gold. My broker called one afternoon and wanted to know, "how would I like to own 30 tonnes in Potugal gold?" What I thought he said: "How would I like to own 30 tums and a portly gals toad?" Thinking this guy has completely lost it, or he has the worst sense of humor in the world, I decided to play along with him. "Sure," I said. Just take the funds out of my account and have the items placed on my doorstep in the morning! Well! The next morning when I went out the door, I-I-I am still in shock! My account has been cut in half and I am scheduled for hearing aids next week.

BF: It was about time for our traditional Trek story: "hyperinflate those drives scotty, that's an order."

"But I'm givin' her all I can, capt'n. I canna give her na more!"

(Also, your "from the prison to the palace". Ain't that just it!)

Then physicalman gives us another viewpoint: Passing GO and collecting $200. (Notice they've never inflated Monopoly prices? Think the Fed has a hand in?)

I played Monopoly all summer in 3rd grade with a friend. I had the 3 greens, but he was convinced his Boardwalk & Park Place would win. Eventually.

I just let him keep on trying to prove it, and he ran up over $200,000 owing to me. Imagine if we'd had derivatives!

Happy Birthday, Br'er Mike! And many, many more.

http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2003030700066g3169&SA=Latest%20News
Snippit:

More than 12,000 employees have been fired from the state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA, the largest company in Latin America. Exports from this major oil supplier to the United States are down to a trickle, causing Americans to feel Venezuela's pain whenever they pay at the gas pump. And by most professional assessments, Venezuela's petroleum industry - once the fifth largest in the world - is in a shambles, posing a major foreign policy challenge for Washington at a time of heightened nervousness over fragile oil supplies from the nations surrounding Iraq. Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, once valued at more than $100 billion, has virtually imploded. Most of its technical and managerial "brains" have been dismissed because of a political dispute with President Hugo Chavez. "The petroleum people are saying that if they all went back to work tomorrow, it would be six weeks just to get local gasoline supply back online and at least six months to get exports back to normal levels," said Antonio Herrera Vialant, general manager of the Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce. "That's the best-case scenario." Almost no one remains at the company with the expertise to negotiate complex export contracts, calculate advantageous long-term oil deals and tweak higher production from aging fields. Even the company's sophisticated computer system is shut down because no one knows how to run it.

Doom-and-gloom scenarios abound among Venezuela's opposition. But to hear Chavez describe it, there is no problem. At first, he insisted, "There is no strike," even when almost all national commerce and business ground to a halt on Dec. 2. PDVSA workers joined the strike shortly afterward, and strikers demanded that Chavez step down and call new elections. He ignored them and has insisted repeatedly to national television audiences that the oil industry is getting by just fine without the fired professional staff. "There was some expert, I don't know where, in Houston, who said that it would take Venezuela four to six months to reach 1 million barrels (of daily production). We did it in 18 days," Chavez said during a Feb. 16 address. "We are now surpassing 2 million and are moving toward 3 million barrels per day. Well, as you know, they often get it wrong out there in the world." But some foreign petroleum-industry analysts, many of whom live far from Houston, describe the president's rosy assessment as the stuff of fantasies. Oil production is little more than half of the peak levels of 3.3 million barrels a day reached before the strike, they say. Production fell more than 90 percent in December. Getting back to former production levels will be difficult because the country has permanently lost at least 10 percent of its capacity from equipment damage, some analysts have said.


Black Blade: Many of Venezuela's marginal wells are permanently lost and much production will never be restored as a result of lost reservoir pressure. I do not see how Venezuelan production can ever be fully restored.

Listing UP-DATED as of SATURDAY, 3/8/03, 01:30 Denver Time !

NOTE to CONTEST entrants -- Please check to see if your "Prognostication" number has been taken in any newly entered guess, AFTER the above posting time, just before you submit yours, so that there are not any duplications ! Thanks <;-)

**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)

**** $404.5 **** Operative (3/4/03; 13:21:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98861)

**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)

**** $399.0 **** Ananse (03/06/03; 21:16:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99033)

**** $398.0 **** Montana (03/07/03; 13:17:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 99092)

**** $392.5 **** physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824)

**** $388.8 **** Believer (3/4/03; 17:29:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98891)

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (02/28/03; 06:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98581)
**** $385.4 **** slingshot (02/27/03; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98555)

**** $381.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (02/27/03; 10:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98525

**** $380.2 **** goldquest (3/8/03; 00:29:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 99112)

**** $378.0 **** Mountain Top (02/27/03; 17:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98543)

**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)
**** $377.7 **** Roccoco (3/4/03; 18:59:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98902)

**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)

**** $372.7 **** Noble1 (03/03/03; 20:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98819)

**** $371.0 **** J-Bullion (03/07/03; 14:10:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 99095)

**** $369.5 **** Moegold (03/07/03; 09:43:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 99074)

**** $369.0 **** Goldilox (03/07/03; 18:18:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 99101)

**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)

**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)

**** $362.4 **** Boilermaker (3/4/03; 15:25:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98876)

**** $360.8 **** VanRip (03/03/03; 19:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98814)

**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)

**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $354.7 **** RILEY (03/06/03; 13:11:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 99016)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $344.0 **** monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787)

**** $340.0 **** kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)

**** $335.2 **** Bizkit (03/07/03; 15:31:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 99096)
===
THINK about it over the WEEKEND and then MAKE your PROGNOSTICATION --- TUESDAY Noon is the DEADLINE !!
<;-)

T.C. --- I have a QUESTION !!
There is not any pressure on anyone to be able to make longterm financial plans --- things are just rosy, say the CNBC cheerleaders, the stockmarket is going to turnaround in the second half (not sure which year, as they don't say that !), the world is almost totally in PEACE, except minor little things in the West Bank, nothing is troubling anyone except the price of gasoline is going up each week and it is colder than it should be at this time of the year, which causes more people to have less to spend on food and other luxuries, SOOOO why do you think that the number of entries in the POG Contest are soooooooo slow in being made ?
Well it is certainly not the SLIGHT VOLATILITY of the POG, afterall, $10. interday moves are impossible in this type of market, YES ?
Oh, well, I shall just have to get my sleep now because I will be in all night Monday and early Tuesday fielding the hundred entries that are going to arrive !
Now TO BED !
<;-)

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-603370,00.htmlA REPORT declassified by the United Nations yesterday contained a hidden bombshell with the revelation that inspectors have recently discovered an undeclared Iraqi drone with a wingspan of 7.45m, suggesting an illegal range that could threaten Iraq's neighbours with chemical and biological weapons.

US officials were outraged that Hans Blix, the chief UN weapons inspector, did not inform the Security Council about the drone, or remotely piloted vehicle, in his oral presentation to Foreign Ministers and tried to bury it in a 173-page single-spaced report distributed later in the day. The omission raised serious questions about Dr Blix's objectivity.

"Recent inspections have also revealed the existence of a drone with a wingspan of 7.45m that has not been declared by Iraq," the report said. "Officials at the inspection site stated that the drone had been test-flown. Further investigation is required to establish the actual specifications and capabilities of these RPV drones . . . (they) are restricted by the same UN rules as missiles, which limit their range to 150km (92.6 miles).

Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, told the Security Council in February that Washington had evidence that Iraq had test-flown a drone in a race-track pattern for 500km non-stop.
_____________
The cat and mouse games - go on and on.

Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold. It was not for myself as I was only acting as a front for a certain purchaser who wished to remain anonymous at this time. You see, the story of how I came to be in this position starts many years ago when I was a junior member of a firm that was advising a certain South American Central Bank on its options of how to diversify their gold reserves. I was of the opinion that they should sell only a small portion of their gold holdings, if any at all. After the snickering stopped, I was informed that my thinking was quite old fashioned, and I just didn't understand the way the new economy worked. Now that the country's currency has lost 80% of its value, they are starting to come back around to the old fashioned way of thinking.

I'm sure you understand my reason for reluctance in naming the country involved as a certain International Monetary organization would not be pleased if they found out that some of the paper currency they have been pumping into this country has been making its way back into hard assets.

from a printing-press policy to a revival of a gold standard systemWe are already in a deflation economy all over the world. According to a textbook of the economy, the most reasonable policy overcoming the deflation is the reflation. So I believe that FED is starting a printing-press policy very deliberately, but no economic indicators indicate the printing-press policy clearly at present. Further, the devaluation of USD is started from last December, and US Government stimulates public finances. All the above policies are aimed to overcome the deflation, but no economic indicators indicate their effectiveness at present.
Jim Sinclair predicted that FED will adopt a gold standard system at June, 2004. If this is true ( I believe so), the present deflation will be deepened for a while, then FED publicly admits to start a printing-press policy. At the next stage, according to the printing-press policy, the deflation begins to diminish in its effect, I believe that FED switches its monetary policy from the printing-press policy to the new gold standard.
In order to stabilize the new gold standard system, FED must accumulate a more gold secretly.
According to sector #97924, EU has 12,431 tonnes (12,461 minus 30) of gold, and USA has officially 8000 tonnes of gold. I think 8,000 tonnes are very small and disadvantage to the new gold standard, the Government of USA inevitably tries to accumulate a more gold at a lower price. If I am a member of FED, I will accumulate at least 20,000 tonnes of gold.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen. D-Ani.

What is Buffett's "state-of-the-union address" on Saurday??"A sharply rising gold price will most likely ignite J.P. Morgan Chase's $26 trillion of derivatives into some kind of blow-up mode," Murphy tells me on the eve of the full Warren Buffett state-of-the-union address, due from that insurance executive's shareholders on Saturday

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB5F3C0CD%2DFA3B%2D4208%2DAE78%2D1D519F730A57%7D&siteid=mktw"A sharply rising gold price will most likely ignite J.P. Morgan Chase's $26 trillion of derivatives into some kind of blow-up mode," Murphy tells me on the eve of the full Warren Buffett state-of-the-union address, due from that insurance executive's shareholders on Saturday"

Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold. There lurks danger of monumental proportions and the world is witnessing the biggest game of chicken, ever.

The US/UK is set to strike for the sake "of a better world" and Iraq (son of Hussein) has promised the "unleasing of hell"

Secret top-level meetings warn of retaliations that cannot be foreseen or stopped. Mr. Bush now seeks advise from his "superior" and repents, an imminent sign that the time draws near.

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=DSOAR0O4AOI4QCRBAEZSFEY?type=bondsNews&storyID=2346735Snip:

WASHINGTON, March 7 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush's plans for new tax cuts and more spending on Medicare and the military would swell federal budget shortfalls by $2.7 trillion over the next decade, congressional analysts said on Friday.

In its annual review of the president's budget, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Bush's policies would turn an $891 billion cumulative surplus it otherwise predicts between 2004 and 2013 into a $1.82 trillion deficit.

********
Misetich

Oh yes the New Economy - prosperous time are here - Unemployment rising (forget the bogus BLS numbers- they count part-time jobs as employed amongst other erroneous data) The Phantoms Surpluses have vanished - poof! -
Reality is here and is here to stay - the power of the manipulators is disapperaing each and every day as the water dam is bursting - first it was the dot.coms; then Nasdaq, then interest bearing investments;
The Dow has started its descend toward its mean -
Housinb bubble has almost ran its course - though ANOTHER injuction is coming in a month or so via a Fed cut and another round of hoped refinancing

Government projected deficits are being understated - many items are not being included

The US $ has started its descend - ANOTHER 30% slow devaluation is in the cards - unless POOF! there's a crash

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?

It is I that bought the 30 tons of Portugul's gold though I'm still waiting for delivery - Wonder how long it will take - When I inquired recently I was told they were waiting for a counterparty Bullion Bank to deliver - After some gentle knudging I was told the Bullion Bank was waiting for their counterparty to deliver - After a small pause I was told the Bullion Bank counterparty (a mining company) had special agreements to defer their obligations for at least 10 years - and then I was asked if I would accept Gold Certificates instead of the physical - plenty of supply around

Somehow my goldenball tells me that it will be a long wait for my physical delivery

ANOTHER error on my part - should have booked my purchase through a reliable supplier such as USA GOLD!

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=2346637Snip:

WASHINGTON, March 7 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers charged more to their credit cards and took out more car loans in January, pushing outstanding credit to its biggest gain in more than a year, the Federal Reserve said on Friday.

The Fed said consumer credit jumped by $13.2 billion in the month, a much larger gain than the $400 million increase Wall Street analysts had been anticipating.

December credit outstanding was also revised to a $2.0 billion gain, from the initially reported $4.0 billion decline -- what would have been the sharpest decline in 12 years. The original December figures had analysts concerned it was signaling the onset of a slowdown in consumer spending, one of the main drivers of the U.S. economy.

..........
Bob Brusca, chief economist with Native American Securities in New York, said the willingness to tap more expensive revolving credit was another sign of "consumer exhaustion."

"The consumer may be at the end of this spending binge," he said.

January's big gain in credit stood in contrast to 2002's credit trend. The Fed said consumer credit outstanding advanced at only a 3.5 percent rate in the year, the slowest annual pace since 1992.

On other other hand, consumers jumped at low mortgage interest rates in 2002 to buy homes or refinance existing mortgages. On Thursday, the Fed said home mortgage debt - credit to buy homes as well as home equity loans - rose at a 12.4 percent pace in 2002, the fastest since 1987. Analysts say some of the money taken out in home equity loans was used to pay down higher-rate credit card debt.
********
Misetich

The end of the road is near - no jobs and debts to pay. - its time to start selling some assets - just to service the debt

Got gold?

Yes I bought the gold because I became alarmed at the rate that FRNs are losing value. For example I looked back in my daily notes and found that on 8 Aug. 02 the US dollar index stood at 108, on friday, the same index was at 98.
The loss of 10 index units in 7 months is an indication of the true inflation rate. My simple calculation is 12/7 times 10
which equates to 17%.
It is only logical to buy gold.

Balzac

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor0Snip:

The European Central Bank has blown it again � easing by as little as possible in the face of an increasingly treacherous economic climate. Yet this action should not be viewed in isolation. It is emblematic of a deeper problem that has afflicted central banks over the past dozen years: While the monetary authorities experienced great success in taming inflation, their record in tempering the perils of deflation borders on abject failure. The Bank of Japan has led the way. The risk is that the Federal Reserve and the ECB are now following in its footsteps.
..........

There could well be a deeper meaning to all this. I have long suspected that central banks are guilty of having fought the "last war" � namely, inflation � for all too long. As the monetary authorities succeeded in squeezing inflation down to extremely low levels, market interest rates were quick to follow. That produced valuation support for equities that was then reinforced by the perceived interplay of a major technological breakthrough (i.e., the Internet) and the productivity-led saga of a New Economy. In other words, under certain circumstances, inflation targeting can spawn asset bubbles. As inflation all but vanished from the scene, the stars were in perfect alignment for just such an outcome in the late 1990s. The failure of central banks was to stick with an old target for too long and not recognize the need to shift their focus to a new target. By fixating on the narrow construct of CPI-based inflation, the authorities overlooked the perils of deflation that arose from a broader inflation of asset markets. My guess is that history will not treat that oversight kindly. Should the world continue to slide down the slippery slope of deflation, a reworking of central bank mandates could well be in order in the not so distant future.

...........
Misetich

The cost of ill conceived Central Bank policies and follies are just beginning to show as world economies are faltering

All On Boar The Gold Bull Express

Got gold?

Many thanks for the birthday wishes.

My earlier post did not communicate my thought very well. Here's a better version of the same idea. I removed the earlier attempt under the Doctrine of Owner's Advantage (smile). . . . .

- - - - -

All of us in some way want to be of service to our fellow human beings whether it be on the family and friends level, or have the opportunity, as I have, to serve on somewhat wider scale. Some claim that gold owners and advocates "cheer from the sidelines the demise of Western civilization," and that is an unfair claim. History is replete with examples of systems gone bad, politicians gone astray and economies gone to seed, so concerns along these lines are not only warranted but part of a healthy understanding of the human condition. Human institutions, human civilization is flawed precisely because it is 'human." We do not 'want' the economy to go into the tank, we simply 'recognize' that it could happen -- like it or not. As such, we all take comfort that we have done everything we can to protect ourselves and our families from such eventuality, and part of that preparation is gold ownership. (Thank you, Cometose) And that's the importance of this firm, this forum and all who are in one way or another connected with it (including my fellow posters) -- to help you prepare. All of the world's religions constitute a reaction to life's imperfections -- a recognition that sometimes we are carried by events instead of the other way around. Gold is simply an extension of those concerns into the world of real things -- an insurance policy against the frailty of human institutions. Gold, in this way, lends tangibility to an otherwise intellectual (and in some cases, spiritual) exercise. As I have said many times to many first-time gold owners, we should buy the metal to hedge the negative event and then we go on with our lives hoping that it will never happen.

Along these lines, I was reading a profile of Gary Hart this morning in the Rocky Mountain News -- one that explores the possibility of his running for president. In it, the story is told of Hart being questioned by a student after a foreign policy speech at Stanford Universtiy. The question pertained to the impending war in Iraq. In answering, Hart alludes to President Bush's many references to ridding the Earth of evil -- allusions which make him (Hart) 'nervous.' "It says in the book of Genesis, there will always be evil," says Hart who took his first degree in Divinity at Yale, "Our job is not to rid the world of evil; the president ought not to be even talking that way." There is a connection between Genesis and gold of which many of you are well aware -- a connection which runs as a thread from 'The Fall' and has special meaning in the complex economies and monetary system erected (and evolved) since 1971. I re-tell this story only to make my point -- which is a point about gold -- and share some the reflections I had on my 55th birthday.

Thanks again for the kind wishes, my friends and fellow goldmeisters. You made a good day even better.

- - - - - -

"There were about 150 things supporting gold today and it takes one story from the Khyber pass to flummox it."

Mitsui's Andy Smith, as quoted on the front page of the Financial Times this morning, on rumors of the capture of two of Osama bin Laden's sons.

Had to read a text for class dealing with spanish conquest of the new world,the amount of gold and silver they stole from Incas and others was staggering,the book states what would now be some of the most beautiful and priceless gold art was melted into bullion.Huge rooms were filled with gold higher than a tall man could reach,maybe some of this gold is in some of the coins we have,makes you think how eternal gold is.Thnx physicalman for info on sterling

Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal gold, and I did it because I tried to corner the silver market back in 1980. That didn't work out so well and I lost a couple of billion buckeroos. Let me tell ya folks, times are very similar, and I believe that precious metals are going to get larger than a Texas bullfrog. If you happen to see a Brink's truck and notice something glittering in the back, it's probably that gold shipment on it's way to my ranchero. Remember what I always said............

"PEOPLE WHO KNOW HOW MUCH THEY'RE WORTH GENERALLY AREN'T WORTH TOO MUCH"

Nelson Bunker Hunt

First, I am not writing this post for everyone who might possibly be reading it, but for those few, who, like myself, seek improved ways of thinking about things, and therefore of doing things.

Second, having tentatively concluded that the real price of gold is, for all practical effect, generally determined by actions taking place in the futures contracts markets, a number of further conclusions can be reached.

One of the most important realizations that one may come to is that words, such as 'struggle' -that tend to be perceived as attributing human-like characteristics to a non-human concept, such as gold, and to the events surrounding it- are to be avoided when possible, since they imbue actions related to gold with attributes of personality, which is a mistake of perception, since neither gold nor its market is a person, and is in no way made up of a static group or static groups or persons, and therefore has no personality and cannot really act as people act. The best understanding can come only as a consequence of recognizing a thing for what it really is. Endowing it with human-like characteristics, in order to understand it metaphorically by comparison, only obscures its real nature and confuses one's own faculties of perception.

Below is my proof of this. (The proof involves a number of other points, which are the main purpose of this post and which may be of use to you.)

If you will consistently observe the ino.com charts for the price of gold, as described in this paragraph, you will see something worth noticing. Specifically watch the 5-minute candlestick chart with the 12 hour moving average for one day (each day being 'today'), and also watch the 5-minute candlestick chart with the 2 hour moving average for one day (also each day being 'today'). It is good to print these out at the end of each day so that you can look at them side by side and compare them easily.

These two charts reveal a relationship that has a significance. What you will see, if you observe either of them by itself, is that it is often not hard to decide what form the moving average is taking. In other words, you can tell pretty clearly whether the red line (the moving average) is probably going to continue to go up, probably going to continue to go down, or whether it is leveling out. When it begins to level out, it can either change direction, or, instead, it can un-level out and then continue in the direction that it was already going.

But whenever it does change direction, first it does level out, sometimes briefly and sometimes lengthily, and you can see quite clearly that many trades await these occurrences. However, some traders apparently prefer to follow the 2 hour moving average chart, in deciding when to buy or sell, as this moving average seems very closely reflective of the probable immediate future movements of the blue figures, which represent the ongoing trades. You can see that many of the strongest, grouped-together buys or sells occur just after the 2 hour moving average has leveled out and is first beginning to decline or go up.

By comparing these two charts, you can really see easily that, if the trades that are in harmony with the 2 hour moving average are not also in harmony with the 12 hour moving average, they tend to be mistaken.

Therefore observe the consistency of the correctness of the trades which are in harmony with both the 2 hour moving average and the 12 hour moving average. These, rather consistently, though not always consistently, are not mistaken.

When you view these events in this way, a number of things come together in the mind, and others lose their relevancy. For one thing, it ceases to be necessary, or even beneficial, to think of these trades as being the result of a struggle between groups, even though that word can be thought of as being a somewhat valid metaphor for these events. For here is a better explanation. It requires more complex knowledge, but it is more accurate. And so it will lead to a clearer understanding of what is going on in the gold market, from moment to moment. The next few sentences seem obvious but they need to be said. At any given time all of the people related to a market are either more likely to buy, more likely to sell, or most likely to do nothing, and the actions of these people will be determined by how they perceive events to be unfolding. Now, since a buyer may change his probable action and become a seller merely because of events, so likewise may a seller also become a buyer without delay. Also a man who has decided to do nothing may suddenly decide to do something. And therefore these realities make this type of market an abstract field consisting not of teams but of an amorphous, perpetually concluding mass of individuals either having acted already and presently deciding when to buy or sell next, and of those not having acted but who are about to.

Even though consequences are brought about, and are suffered, by traders on account of the actions of the other parties to their contracts, these people are not in fact struggling against one another, even metaphorically, in the major sense, but, independently of each other, each individual is trying to make one decision intended to produce an outcome desirable for himself. This is the main thing these people are doing. Any 'struggle' or 'fight' is ancillary to this and is very far subordinate to it. Any man who focuses his greatest energies into concentrating on a perceived fight, in these matters, will consistently tend to do himself a profound injustice.

Two things can be seen from this view. One regards sellers, and the other regards buyers. The principle tends to be the same for both, though perhaps with minor differences. Those acting against the ongoing trend tend to take quick action, without due consideration. Those whose forces may be depended upon to enforce the larger trend, and also the ongoing trend, tend to wait until the others have expended their efforts, and this is consistent with knowledge deliberation. So in this sense I am incorrect, and there is a fight. But it is a fight, not against buyers and sellers, so much as a process of natural selection taking place on the level of biological evolution, between those who act without premeditation, and those who actions tend to take place without due thought. Thus markets function as thorough ways to benefit the fittest and eliminate the less fit, with regard to these criteria.

One thing that ought to be realized by each trader is that there need be no dishonesty or manipulation occurring for these events to take place (the events themselves do not prove they are not taking place, but neither do they require it). The events themselves can be entirely explained simply by the fact that the referred-to, numerous individuals involved are acting together in similar ways, without having conspired or having agreed beforehand to do so, but merely by observing as individuals these principles which I have outlined here, and by making their decisions accordingly.

If anyone cares to point out flaws in this, I would be grateful.

Click here...... to give TC greif & a laugh simotanouslyYou all are a smart bunch, I know it! Answer this question. Once the excuse for the poor economy of the USA can no longer be blamed on IRAQ, What is the new excuse?

I wrote: "Even though consequences are brought about, and are suffered, by traders on account of the actions of the other parties to their contracts, these people are not in fact struggling against one another, even metaphorically, in the major sense, but, independently of each other, each individual is trying to make one decision intended to produce an outcome desirable for himself. This is the main thing these people are doing. Any 'struggle' or 'fight' is ancillary to this and is very far subordinate to it. Any man who focuses his greatest energies into concentrating on a perceived fight, in these matters, will consistently tend to do himself a profound injustice."

*** It could also correctly be said that the main means of winning the 'fight' -if speaking metaphorically of a 'struggle'- consists of properly directing one's greatest efforts toward accurately forming this decision.

The answer to your question rests in the mysteries not yet comprehended by the masses.

"...and those who actions tend to take place without due thought."

Should read, "...and those who actions tend NOT to take place without due thought."

I have to leave now. But I will be back later and will make reply to any responses.

May I request that you sharpen your pencil Sir?

A Nation of One-
I suspect that poor timing was at play in my last post. All respect intended! Thanks for your response.

All-
For the rest of us, what will be the new excuse for the poor state of the economy?

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/03/07/1046826533281.htmlNorth Korea would launch a ballistic missile attack on the United States if Washington made a pre-emptive strike against the communist state's nuclear facility, the man described as Pyongyang's "unofficial spokesman" claimed yesterday.

Kim Myong-chol, who has links to the Stalinist regime, told reporters in Tokyo that a US strike on the nuclear facility at Yongbyon "means nuclear war".

"If American forces carry out a pre-emptive strike on the Yongbyon facility, North Korea will immediately target, carry the war to the US mainland," he said, adding that New York, Washington and Chicago would be "aflame".

A pre-emptive strike on Yongbyon is one of the strategic options in the crisis over North Korea's nuclear arms program. The US has deployed 24 long-range bombers to the Pacific base of Guam capable of launching such a strike.

Mr Kim, who has written a text studied by North Korean military leaders, predicted North Korea would restart its reprocessing plant to make weapons-grade plutonium this month.

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

"...the new excuse for the poor state of the economy?"

My dear man, whatever is it you are refering too? The economy according to 90% of the "experts" and "talking heads" will surely strengthen in the last 6 months of the year. It MUST be so, because they continue to say so. Just look at the government figures, there is no inflation, unemployment remains steady at about a healthy 6 %. Havent you heard that all those that "really want to work" already have jobs? GDP is still positive, a little weak perhaps, ok...a whole lot of weak if you remove the government spending from GDP figures, but one must look on the bright side of the figure yes? What current excuse is used to describe the current economy? I hear little excuse, mostly cheerleading of why things are looking good for the near future. Many of the corporations are coming in at or above the expectations. OK, so they are consistently lowered expectations but hey, things are not bad, excuses are not needed, according to the Grandmaster of the Universe, we have simply entered a tiny, wheeny, little, "soft spot" and soon will once again be on our way to a glorious raging bull market. Buy the dips dont you know! And the word new only conjurs up the NEW Paradign that we are entering, the new accoutanting procedures, (some very creative)and the soon to come new, even lower than the last 11 cuts, drop in interest rate. Also adding to the excitment of future gains is the underpinning of all speculative markets by the huge derivative markets, where any and all possible failures are properly insured, doubly insured,and even more so, by counterparties that will simply absorb all risk. So cheer up and just go along for the ride and stop reading all that Warren Buffet stuff. The guy is old, his thinking simply outdated, and I am sure will be proven wrong in due time. Do not let those with "negative thinking" cloud your once in a lifetime chance to buy great values such as Kmart @.15, Enron under a buck. There is a whole list of cheap stocks that one can add to his/her 201K account. And oh, this falling dollar thing. That is really good news because now all those USA companies that produce products can sell more of them at a competitive price to overseas markets. You know, all those products we are famous for making, like....
well, I will have to get back to you on that one. Anyway, just remember, things are really looking up.

(just a little tongue in cheek this saturday)
Operative.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&box=ad_box_all2&tag=energy∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APmkTQRU.Q2l0aWdyNew York, March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. helped Enron Corp. hide billions of dollars in debt with disguised loans and other accounting gimmicks, says a report by a federal bankruptcy examiner investigating whether the banks are responsible for investor losses.

The banks, the two largest in the U.S., were singled out in the report for playing ``a significant role'' in the deception that led to Enron's collapse. Neal Batson, an Atlanta lawyer appointed by the Justice Department to study the energy company's finances, said the banks were complicit in a technique that let Enron report $10.2 billion in debt on Dec. 31, 2000, when it actually owed $22.1 billion.

``The real question is did the banks know that Enron was making misleading financial statements to investors'' or were they careless, said Michael Simons, a St. Johns University law professor. Deliberately taking part in deception would expose the banks to criminal charges as well as civil damages, he said.

Batson's findings may provide ammunition to investors who have sued the banks and other defendants for more than $25 billion in damages. The examiner will issue another report in June that will examine the liability of the banks, as well as law firms and accountants that advised Enron.
_______________
If JPM is hit with criminal charges I don't know if they will be
able to continue in business. They may go under. Taking all those
complicated derivatives with them. Yipes.

http://www.mips1.net/mgan.nsf/Current/85256C3300290CD485256CE2004F7671?OpenDocumentI've lately received another email from our anonymous gentleman who wanted to have his latest comments and musings passed along with a post to the forum. Without further ado...
R.
___________________________________________
Tim Wood at mineweb.com, in a piece entitled "Yandal Hedge Predicament Isolated" [see url above], has again addressed the issue of gold hedging in general, and Barrick's hedge book in particular.

See also
http://www.webfn.com/en/news/news.html/?id=31666
for an article entitled "Gold: Hedging Causes Uneases Among Investors", Mar 07, 2003-13:06, also commenting on the same subject matter as the Tim Wood article.

It is stated in the latter piece that none of the 19 bullion counterparties to the Barrick hedge position have the "unilateral and discretionary rights to terminate the forward sales contracts" in the way Newmont's counterparties have such right. In summary, the above referenced pieces indicate that the Newmont counterparties represent a small minority of counterparties holding such rights.

This may be, but the following thoughts come to mind. If such be the case, the relevant central bank, under normal accounting rules, cannot look to the bullion bank (who according to Barrick can defer physical delivery up to 14 years) to satisfy repayment and must therefor register such earlier physical gold loan as "nonperforming", causing reduction in reserve numbers. However, please note that Barrick was not forthcoming about the above described aspect of its almost totally opaque hedge book until after questions arose as a result of the first Tim Wood article addressing the subject.

Please note further that Barrick merely denied THAT FORM of right in the counterparties, without describing (or denying) some other equivilent right in the bullion bank type counterparties, which right would cause the right in the bullion bank to obtain the physical or its cash equivilent such that the central bank loan could be described in accounting terms as "performing", without writeoff.

I find Barrick's most recent response to be evasive in limiting its statement to the Newmont type situation, rather than addressing the much larger issue of any and all rights which might or might not exist in counterparties to the Barrick hedge position. Of course were Barrick to address the larger issue, some or much of the opaqueness of its hedge book would disappear.

It makes no economic sense for any counterparty to allow unilateral deferral of "delivery", far in the future, in the sole discretion of a mining company such as Barrick. The only thing that makes economic sense is if the counterparty to the hedge of a mining company such as Barrick, economically protects itself from such unilateral action. Therefor, if such counterparty does not have such early "right to break" the contract, as with the Newmont counterparties, then the inference is that such counterparty will have some equally powerful, or important (similar) contractual right. How the foregoing might, if at all, impact the pending Blanchard suit, continues to be interesting. EOM.
___________________________________________

Competitive ProductsPizza, Burgers and Fried Chicken.
Eat mo'chicken.
Eat mo'beef
The Power of Cheeeeeeeeeese.:0)
Slingshot-------------<>

A glance at the $index shows a decline in the dollar
over the past year from around 120 down to 98 ish -
a fall of 22%.
A similar comparison of the nominal gold price shows
a move from around $280 to $350 ish - or around the
same 20% - 25%.
There may be some interesting inferences we can draw from
this:-

1. The powers that are "managing" the price of gold
are perversely acknowledging gold as having a legitimate
monetary role. If they truly believed it to be a
"barbarous relic", they would not be managing the
correlation so closely.

2. Any attempt to continue to manage the relationship
between the dollar and the nominal gold price hinges
on being able to control both prices. If the price
of gold has been able to be contained hitherto by
creative inventions and manipulation on Comex, the
same tricks will not be possible in managing the
dollar. Too much of the currency is now in the hands
of foreigners - who are becoming reluctant holders.

I suspect we won't see the next major move up in gold
until the nexus between the gold price and the dollar
is obviously broken. Only when the world sees the
long established link between gold and the dollar as
a "barbarous relic" will gold forge its own
independent trendline up.

Interested in others' view on this.

http://worldnetdaily.com/biznetdaily/There's another Silverado story in today's WND. Things just keep getting more and more bizarre.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2003/03/09/ccbuffit09.xml&sSheet=/money/2003/03/09/ixcity.html
SNIPS:
At the heart of Buffett's attack is his claim that in many cases it is impossible for investors to have any idea what exposure many banks have to these complex financial instruments.
�
Given the mind-bogglingly complex nature of many contracts and the fact that credit derivatives are usually not held directly on a published balance sheet, calculating the exposure of banks and insurers is a horrendous task. Buffett believes it is impossible: "When Charlie [Munger, Buffett's business partner] and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don't understand how much risk the institution is running.
�
Even Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, has praised derivatives for reducing risk.
"I think he [Buffett] is talking about his own experience at General Re. There have been frequent predictions of doom about the use of derivatives, but is important to note that the net benefits far outweigh any negatives to come out of the market," says Jerry del Messier, the managing director of Barclays Capital.
That may be so. But in Buffett's words, the "derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle" and we still cannot be sure it's not a monster.

" Is gold really moving?"

You bet! Tons moving from Central Banks to parts & persons unknown. Additional tons moving to China, India, and Aisa.
Backpacks of gold are moving in Japan where people are trading in paper money for the real physical gold. While I have no numbers to throw out I feel confident in saying that those of some substance are moving larger amounts of fiat to thier local gold/silver supplier. Yes, I think gold is moving, quickly, silently, covertly into hands who have a pretty good idea of future events. The paper price of gold? It too will really move at some point. Probably around the time when those left holding wheelbarrels full of paper money realize there is little physical gold to be found. But keep this quiet as I have yet to fill all my matchboxes as of yet.

http://www.sftt.org/cgi-bin/csNews/csNews.cgi?database=Insider%20Notes.db,nd=viewone&op=t&id=7&rnd=513.8700783782965Col. David Hackworth's latest Penagon INTEL brings the following. Even the A-Team can't agree on the cost of the war to the US budget.

snippit:

The Army Chief of Staff and the Deputy Secretary of Defense engaged in an amazingly public catfight over the resources and manpower required to occupy Iraq. For all that, neither one of them, or anyone else in the Pentagon or the White House will tell Congress how much this will cost, how long it will take, or who is paying for it.

Rumsfeld has started making the same statements in every interview and press event "If it comes to war?" and "No decision has been made yet."

They say to understand politicians you have to know when they are lying. It?s not that hard? when you see their lips moving, that?s the killer clue.

The Kansas City Star says the Pentagon is violating a 1998 congressional mandate that blood be taken from every deploying soldier to serve as a baseline for later analysis of exposure to chemicals. This law was imposed in order to help prevent the fiasco of the Pentagon?s handling and analysis of Gulf War Syndrome 11 years ago.

Instead of collecting blood, the military health policy is to have each soldier complete a one page form where he or she answers true-false questions about his or her general health. Sounds like a plan to cover somebody. Probably not soldiers and veterans, though.

Koppel finally ran an indepth piece last night on the Project for a New American Century, their 1997 roadmap for a new Middle East, and the PNAC charter members' new day jobs. Jobs like like Secretary of Defense, his deputy, the Vice President, his special assistant, NSC Middle East Director and the Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs. Surprising, I guess, unless you?ve been reading this column and other quiet reminders of the hijacked ship of state inside the beltway.

It isn?t about oil, we are told. Not directly, but is it about the dollar, and propping up the ever weaker US economy by ensuring global business stays greenback and not Euro-backed?

If Bush team takes us to Baghdad, they will need to do it before the economy tanks, the weather gets hot, and our soldiers? families start to ask the hard questions about the difference between patriotism and "just following orders." Time is also needed to adapt the spin to whatever the aftermath looks like, and get the re-election campaign going.

end snippit

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,430649,00.htmlWith war in Iraq looming and North Korea defiantly pursuing its own nuclear program, the last thing President Bush needs is another nuclear crisis. But that is what he may soon face in Iran. On a visit last month to Tehran, International Atomic Energy Agency director Mohamed ElBaradei announced he had discovered that Iran was constructing a facility to enrich uranium � a key component of advanced nuclear weapons � near Natanz. But diplomatic sources tell TIME the plant is much further along than previously revealed. The sources say work on the plant is "extremely advanced" and involves "hundreds" of gas centrifuges ready to produce enriched uranium and "the parts for a thousand others ready to be assembled."
---------
The new discoveries could destabilize a region already dangerously on edge in anticipation of war in Iraq. Israel � which destroyed an Iraqi nuclear plant in Osirak in a 1981 raid � is deeply alarmed by the developments. "It's a huge concern," says one Israeli official. "Iran is a regime that denies Israel's right to exist in any borders and is a principal sponsor of Hezbollah. If that regime were able to achieve a nuclear potential it would be extremely dangerous." Israel will not take the "Osirak option" off the table, the official says, but "would prefer that this issue be solved in other ways."
_________________
I can't remember the world in a more chaotic situation than it
is right now. I was reading today that there is talk of removing
Tony Blair from office among labor party officlas. Cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war.

http://www.forbes.com/work/newswire/2003/03/08/rtr901377.htmlSnip:
"Tokyo stocks could plumb new 20-year lows this week as war worries and a host of domestic factors discourage buyers. Analysts said the Nikkei average could drop below 8,000, a key support level, after falling 2.62 percent last week to 8,144.12 -- its lowest close since March 1983. Some investors may look for bargains early in the week, but the market's longer-term prospects are clouded by the prospect of a trade-disrupting war on Iraq, worries about North Korea's missile and nuclear programmes, and a weak economic outlook. News that major market player Nikko Salomon Smith Barney -- owned by Citigroup and Nikko Cordial Corp -- had been cited for stock manipulation will add to the gloom. Shares of Nikko Cordial, Japan's third biggest broking house, dropped 12 percent when the news broke on Friday.

In 1991, the Nikkei surged 17 percent in a six-week "relief rally" that began with the onset of the U.S.-led campaign in Iraq. The U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 18 percent. But traders said stocks may fall this time if Washington presses ahead with a war without the support of key allies. With only three weeks to go before year-end book-closings for most Japanese companies, the drop in share prices is bad news for banks, which are saddled with mountains of bad loans, as lower valuations on their stock holdings will erode their capital. Analysts say many banks' capital adequacy ratios -- a key gauge of financial health -- could fall below the eight percent global requirement if the Nikkei approaches 7,500. At Friday's close, combined unrealised stock losses at the top seven banking groups stood at around 5.84 trillion yen ($50 billion), according to Daiwa Institute of Research. Investors are also concerned about the ability of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to deal with any financial crisis.

Waverider: Mayday, Mayday, Mayday...this is Captain Koizumi of the Japanese Economy...we are approaching Nikkei 7,500 and investor panic...passengers are abandoning ship...repeat...abandoning ship....passengers are donning *Gold* lifejackets and *Gold* lifeboats but we are in short supply...Mayday, Mayday - we request immediate assistance...

To be placed in a position where I must confess to my actions is very difficult for me: you demand this, yet for me to do so will almost certainly cause me harm. You can expect to hear of my 'suicide' or of my death in an aircraft crash in the near future, for I will have broken the rules and must suffer the consequences.

You see, I am an insider; I work for the cabal, and it is my role to ensure that as much gold as possible is taken out of circulation and deposited into our coffers. I have been behind all of the CB sales as the mystery buyer for many years now. Why, you might ask, are we so obsessed with accumulating if possible, ALL the gold in existence?

Of course we know gold is not a 'barbarous relic', but it suits our cause for you to believe so.

Of course we know of the totally untenable situation created by fiat currencies - we have planned this from the beginning.

Of course we know that the only possible solution is a form of currency which adapts the original gold standard to the digital age.

Of course we must be in control of this new currency.

Of course we must accumulate all the gold, regardless of price, for this purpose; but of course, it suits us to keep its price as cheap as we possibly can!

I plead with you not to inform on me so that I may live.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&box=ad_box_all2&tag=energy∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APmkTQRU.Q2l0aWdy
Snippit:

New York, March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. helped Enron Corp. hide billions of dollars in debt with disguised loans and other accounting gimmicks, says a report by a federal bankruptcy examiner investigating whether the banks are responsible for investor losses.

The banks, the two largest in the U.S., were singled out in the report for playing ``a significant role'' in the deception that led to Enron's collapse. Neal Batson, an Atlanta lawyer appointed by the Justice Department to study the energy company's finances, said the banks were complicit in a technique that let Enron report $10.2 billion in debt on Dec. 31, 2000, when it actually owed $22.1 billion.

``The real question is did the banks know that Enron was making misleading financial statements to investors'' or were they careless, said Michael Simons, a St. Johns University law professor. Deliberately taking part in deception would expose the banks to criminal charges as well as civil damages, he said.

Black Blade: Well whaddya know? The heat get turned up a notch on Citigroup and Morgan. Hmmm�

http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=5949.topic
Snippit:

Mar. 6--Natural gas supplies are depleted to the point that some storage operators have run out of inventories, Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens said Wednesday. "They told me they can't get anything else out," said Pickens, the featured speaker at a luncheon hosted by the International Society of Energy Advocates in Tulsa. Pickens warned that if gas supplies keep falling at the present rate, more storage operators will lose the ability to pull supplies from underground storage facilities. The situation could lead to supply shortfalls this winter. "We could find ourselves with real problems," Pickens said.

As gas supplies fall, the pressure inside storage facilities declines. If gas supplies drop below a certain level, the capacity to withdraw inventories from storage will be limited due to insufficient pressure. U.S. supplies are nearing that point, which is around 600 billion to 700 billion cubic feet, Pickens said. Extremely cold weather has sapped the nation's inventory of gas, which is used to heat most American homes. A lack of drilling activity has also contributed to the shortfall. "I don't think I'll ever see gas prices below $4 again," Pickens said. "We're in a new world." The recommended storage level for the winter heating season, which begins Nov. 1, is 3 trillion cubic feet. By season's end, which is April 1, the industry prefers to have 1 tcf left in storage, enough to rebuild supplies for the next season. U.S. gas supplies are down 48 percent from last year, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. With 1 tcf left in storage, experts say supplies will likely fall to 600 bcf by April.


Black Blade: Interesting T. Boone Pickens article. I have also been told the same thing by some industry people. Some storage is in effect depleted leaving only cushion gas. The draw from this week will be above average and next week's draw could be strong as well. We could close in on 600 bcf within two weeks and still have another couple of weeks worth of draws. We will certainly close heating season at all time record lows, the question is how low? The current outlook as far as drilling activity and E&P budgets suggest that there will be little improvement this summer. We are being set up for a disaster next winter. One analyst I know has said that at current drilling and projected drilling combined with declining output we could easily deplete NatGas storage by the end of December this year (mid-winter). Very profitable potential for many of us holding energy and precious metals, but Yikes!

Listing UP-DATED as of SUNDAY, 3/9/03, 00:10 Denver Time !


NOTE to CONTEST entrants -- Please check to see if your "Prognostication" number has been taken in any newly entered guess, AFTER the above posting time, just before you submit yours, so that there are not any duplications ! Thanks <;-)


**** $444.0 **** silvercollector (3/8/03; 08:01:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 99122)

**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)

**** $404.5 **** Operative (3/4/03; 13:21:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98861)

**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)

**** $399.0 **** Ananse (03/06/03; 21:16:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99033)

**** $398.0 **** Montana (03/07/03; 13:17:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 99092)

**** $392.5 **** physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824)

**** $388.8 **** Believer (3/4/03; 17:29:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98891)

**** $387.6 **** misetich (3/8/03; 09:34:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 99124)

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (02/28/03; 06:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98581)
**** $385.4 **** slingshot (02/27/03; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98555)

**** $381.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (02/27/03; 10:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98525

**** $380.2 **** goldquest (3/8/03; 00:29:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 99112)

**** $378.0 **** Mountain Top (02/27/03; 17:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98543)

**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)
**** $377.7 **** Roccoco (3/4/03; 18:59:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98902)

**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)

**** $372.7 **** Noble1 (03/03/03; 20:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98819)

**** $371.0 **** J-Bullion (03/07/03; 14:10:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 99095)

**** $369.5 **** Moegold (03/07/03; 09:43:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 99074)

**** $369.0 **** Goldilox (03/07/03; 18:18:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 99101)

**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)

**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)
**** $362.4 **** Boilermaker (3/4/03; 15:25:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98876)

**** $360.8 **** VanRip (03/03/03; 19:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98814)

**** $358.8 **** The Knife (03/08/03; 11:58:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 99131)

**** $358.5 **** Woodie (3/8/03; 02:58:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 99118)

**** $357.5 **** seagull (3/8/03; 21:29:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 99153)

**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)

**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $354.7 **** RILEY (03/06/03; 13:11:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 99016)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $351.5 **** balzac (03/08/03; 09:47:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 99127)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $344.0 **** monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787)

**** $340.0 **** kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)

**** $335.2 **** Bizkit (03/07/03; 15:31:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 99096)
===
YES, Sunday is the "day of rest"! BUT, you can think about the CONTEST and make-up your mind and DO IT ! ENTER TODAY !
<;-)

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals' founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:

"[M]uch of this issue is devoted to oil, inflation, international politics and gold. . . . . Though the dollar continued to rise against most international currencies during the past month, most currencies ( including the dollar) were depreciating against real goods. . . . AND IT IS THE TREND THAT HAS ECONOMISTS CONCERNED. Crude oil, which must be purchased with dollars, is being blamed as the chief culprit. When the dollar price of oil rises, it fans the inflationary fires of nearly every nation in the world. All of this could at some point inspire a dollar rebellion among the nations of the world, with both oil producers and oil consumers capable of finding fault with the dollar simultaneously . . . . In such a case gold, of course, would become one of the primary beneficiaries and the dollar could go into a tailspin."

Take note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

News & Views is available to our clientele only. However, the latest issue is back from the printer and available to prospective gold investors who request an INFORMATION PACKET on one-time only basis. We invite your request.

If you would like to get a feel for the thinking that forms the basis for market conclusions like the one featured above, take advantage of the offer to include THE ABCs of GOLD INVESTING: PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH THROUGH PRIVATE GOLD OWNERSHIP. A prompt with ordering information will come up after you submit your request for the INFORMATION PACKET.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=2984.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/5290493.htm.

359.2

http://www.users.globalnet.co.uk/~msmith03/adam/adamnews.htmDuring the final run-up of the stock market bubble that peaked in 2000, the Money Channel went live with consumer-oriented financial programmes on cable, satellite and the internet. It started off well enough, attracting substantial advertising and sponsorship revenues. It had been put together by Adam Faith and chairman Paul Killick, and floated on the Alternative Investment Market in May 1999. Killick is reported to have said: "I know what to say, and Adam knows how to say it".

Money Channel's shares launched in July 1999 at 22p, and the stock market / dot com bubble had taken them up to 522.25p by January 2000. But the bubble began to deflate, and Money Channel fell with it, its share price falling 30% in one day to 16p, on February 20, 2001.

In an interview at the Guardian Edinburgh International Television Festival, Adam Faith said:

"My shares that I had had for nothing were suddenly worth about �30m. And in what seemed a blink of an eye they were back to wallpaper."
[http://www.accountancyage.com/news/1126039]

Adam Faith stepped down as an executive director after the company reported a loss of �4.9m for the 6 months to September 30, 2000.

In the words of Adam's 1959 hit record:

What do you want if you don't want money?
What do you want if you don't want gold?
Say what you want & I'll give to you darling
Wish you wanted my love, baby

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2834197.stmSnip:
"With war against Iraq now possibly only a week away, share, bond, currency and commodity markets are set for some of the most turbulent trading in recent history. Last week, shares slumped around the world, and the once-mighty dollar plumbed a series of record lows. Wall Street has lurched up and down, but like other markets has lost 10% of its value this year alone. In the absence of any major market-moving corporate news, most traders are expecting further falls this week, despite repeated assurances from some that the effects of any war have been more than factored in. In the short term at least, analysts predict a stampede for safe havens. This means obvious hideaways such as the gold market..."

Waverider: Looks like an entertaining week ahead!

I CONFESS. I BOUGHT IT. Now get me off this rack Gandalf and bring me some Merlot. Yes, it was I who bought the 30 tonnes of Portuguese Gold. I had hoped to keep this quiet for as long as possible as my plans require some degree of secrecy. I intend to establish a new Central Bank and a new currency, the Rabbitz. It will be backed by 5% more gold than whatever the Euro is. I use the word "backed" loosely. The people may look at my gold .....but no touching. Once every year my stash will be audited. I had planned on the Anderson Firm but have been assured there are suitable replacements. Meanwhile my Rabbitz will multiply.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/09/business/yourmoney/09WATC.htmlSnip:

With consumer debt near record highs, it would not be much of a surprise if consumers did stop buying. But they have been remarkably resistant to changing their bingeing ways. Even the devastating bear market in stocks has not shaken them.

..........
Also worrisome is a shift in the source of the funds available to consumers. In the 1990's, Mr. Hastings said, consumer spending was fueled by growing wages, a secure job environment and gains in real estate and the stock market. But since mid-2000, consumer spending has been bolstered by mortgage refinancings, home equity loans and falling retail prices. None of those sources can be relied upon much longer.

"I have seen a more significant breakdown in consumer spending during the last few months," Mr. Hastings said. "While consumer spending in dollars looks O.K., when you look deeper, there are trouble signs. And that is likely to turn into lower unit volume pretty soon."

...........

"The risk is, what else in the economy can pick up the slack if the consumer no longer participates enough?" Mr. Hastings asked.
.........
Certainly not businesses, which are reducing their expectations based on sluggish demand. Last Thursday, for example, Intel narrowed its sales forecast for the first quarter. In January, the company expected sales of $6.5 billion to $7 billion in the period. Now it expects sales of $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion.

State and local governments cannot help. Short of cash, they must cut their spending. Only the federal government is expansive.

Household wealth is in decline, Mr. Hastings said, and so is the number of people employed. Consumers are finally figuring out that the only way to save money in such an environment is to stop spending.
**********
Misetich

Consumer spending decline - a nightmare for Wall Street-

All On Boar The Gold Bull Express

http://prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.aspSnip:

International financial flows are accounted for in the "Rest of World" (ROW) sector. While the hype of the hyper-productive U.S. economy is unrelenting, foreign investors are in dramatic retreat. Importantly, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the U.S. has collapsed. FDI surpassed $100 billion for the first time during 1997 ($109.3 bn), then jumped to $179 billion during 1998. The escalating financial and economic Bubble enticed $289.5 billion of FDI during 1999 and the high-water mark $307.7 billion for year-2000. Speculative FDI was stemmed, however, by the bursting equity/NASDAQ Bubble. FDI sank to $130.8 billion during 2001 and collapsed to last year's $46.0 billion, the lowest level since 1992.



Yet, our massive trade deficits create international dollar balances that must find their way to U.S. financial asset markets. Hence, Rest of World acquisition of U.S. Credit Market Instruments surged last year to $416.9 billion. This compares to 2001's $320.6 billion, 2000's $225.9 billion and 1999's $139.7 billion. Last year, ROW increased holdings of Agencies by $126.1 billion, Treasuries by $99.3 billion, and U.S. Corporate Bonds (includes ABS) by $166.9 billion. It is worth noting that ROW made net Agency purchases of $11 billion during 1998 and $63.5 billion during 1999. Importantly, we do not expect FDI to the U.S. to recover for many years. And that the dollar has sunk in the face of massive purchases of U.S. securities portends ominous dollar vulnerability. If there is any waning of demand for Agencies and U.S. Corporates (especially asset-backs), we have a serious problem. The day our foreign-sourced financiers move to liquidate U.S. securities, we are faced with a calamitous dislocation. As goes Structured Finance, so goes the dollar.
**********
Misetich

With the current US $ devaluation underway - and it is expected that this leg down will result in another 30% drop - and the US economy heading (continuing) another recession ( its already there if you take government spending out of the GDP) foreigners will be taking a bath on US investments - unless of course they cash in before the crash - which of course is a self-fulfilling prophecy

All On Board On The Gold Bull Express

I confess I bought the 30 tones of Portuguese Gold. I had bought property in Mexico right next to Bob Chapman and needed to build a compound to protect my family and my 30 tones of PG when all the citizens from Mexico had moved to the USA and the citizens from the USA had finished moving to Mexico. I then borrowed the money from Bob to build my compound with the understanding when gold hits $1,500 per ounce I will sell some and pay Bob back at a nice interest rate. We actually have a tunnel between our property and share a vault to store our gold and other supplies our families will need to survive the coming war and the failure of the fiat money if not the additional fall of the US government as we know and love it.

I also plan on a little lipo and a nip and tuck here and there when the POG starts to sky rocket. Why not with the world starting out fresh (lets not think about having to wear nuclear suits for years to come) I want to look my best! Hummm, maybe I'll even put in a bunker with a gym in it.

P.S. I have also put away a little to bribe someone to answer my post #99071 about ticker info. I even said "Please". Do you think a few pounds or so will be enough?

http://www.fortune.com/fortune/investing/articles/0,15114,428139,00.htmlSnip:

Millions of American workers are sure to see a large slice of their retirement income go up in smoke. It may not happen right away, but the groundwork is being laid right now.
.............
As FORTUNE reported in December, the lethal combination of a cratering stock market and plunging interest rates has played havoc with the finances of corporate pension plans. For the first time in years, the plans don't have enough money set aside to pay for the $1.2 trillion or so in benefits that they owe current and future retirees. The size of the shortfall? Some $240 billion, or more than half of what they earned in 2002. That shortfall is forcing companies to pour billions of additional dollars into the plans and is whacking billions more off earnings.
.........
*******
Misetich

Every which way you turn its a mess - from vanishing retirements, to lower corporate earnings to higher government deficits, to higher energy costs, to vanishing portfolios, to higher unemployment to higher bankrupticies, to higher debt levels, to housing bubbles, to lower investment income, to higher corporate bonds risks default

What a mess - and its not over yet

All On Boar The Gold Bull Express

VariousSnips:

Soaring Health Costs

Health-care costs in 2002 jumped more than many companies projected.

Although health-care benefit costs have soared for several years now, nearly half (45 percent) of employers reported that their health-care costs exceeded their budgets in 2002, according The Eighth Annual Watson Wyatt/WBGH Survey, released by Watson Wyatt Worldwide and the Washington Business Group on Health (WBGH).

Just 13 percent of the corporate respondents said the cost came in under budget.

Health-care costs are expected to jump another 15 percent this year.

Many employers in the survey are looking to pass those increases on to others. Just 32 percent of the respondents said they are able or willing to absorb increases in medical-benefit costs, compared with 52 percent who said so in 2000.

...........

Energy Prices

Shutting Marysville cave boosts heating fuel price

http://www.freep.com/money/business/cms7_20030307.htm


Fill 'er up, before it's gone -
Gas shortages are hitting some Valley stations, and it could worsen by the weekend.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0307Gas07.html

Bus, Subway Fares Hiked to $2 in N.Y.C.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=519&u=/ap/20030306/ap_on_re_us/mta_fares_4≺inter=1


OPEC to Struggle to Lower Oil Price as Iraq War Looms

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmiGQRU2T1BFQyB0

Insurance

Wave of rising insurance costs swamps business, consumers

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/3742969.html

Housing

Property Taxes on the rise due to increased real estate values

********
Misetich

Every which way you turn consumers are being hit - disposal income is dwindling - as service costs are increasing - jobs get scarcer - and debts levels at all time high

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Okay, guys, yes, it was I who exchanged the current fiat for the 30 tonnes of gold from Portugal. I bartered the deal at the current exchange rate because I could. This is to say my payment was acceptable at the time of the exchange with the exact monetary amount determined at and by that time of purchase.

This determination of a constantly varying purchase price was necessary as the nature of my payment is suspect, ever susceptible to change, at the whims of the currency issuers, currency traders and those who daily judge its value or worth. Indeed, I paid with a debt that I had accepted from others!

To fully comprehend, you must understand that my payment was appraised more on the confidence and the follies of mens' actions than on any tangible worth. This is an innate condition of the payment, a reflection of the very nature of its creation and of the ever changing environment in which it exists. Like its creators, my fiat payment is mortal.

Why did I do this? I wished to transform a temporary, unstable man-made but currently acceptable medium of exchange into a tangible store of wealth. I sought to protect my earnings from the ravages, speculations and depreciations of man and time. Have I now irrevokably spent my monetary wealth on golden metal? No, not spent, just exchanged for safekeeping. You see, gold is always fungible for different monetary units of commerce. It little matters whatever acceptable form that becomes. My wealth is now impervious to harm and shall remain so until that time, should it arrive, when I must once again transform it into a vulnerable form of exchange. Remember, gold has always been able to buy money but, sometimes, money can not but gold!

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Top%20Stories%20World&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=worldtop&s=APmtbARVsRG9sbGFyTokyo, March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may fall for a fourth week in five as the rising threat of war with Iraq, a slumping economy and widening current account deficit dim the allure of U.S. assets, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Of 33 analysts, traders and investors surveyed Friday, 79 percent recommended buying euros against the dollar this week, even with Europe's common currency near a four-year high. Last week, 30 percent recommended such a move.

...the dollar may weaken to $1.12 per euro this week.

...``The dollar is in dire trouble,'' said Steve Pearson, chief currency strategist at HBOS Plc. ``There's nothing on the horizon to turn that around'' unless Hussein goes into exile and war is averted.

...Higher interest rates are also luring money to Europe. Even after the European Central Bank lowered its key borrowing rate to 2.5 percent last week, it is still 1.25 percentage points above the Federal Reserve's target interest rate. This difference in rates will keep the euro attractive once war breaks out, some analysts said.

--------(see url for full article)-----

Diversify. Add hard assets to your portfolio... add gold for the security of the ages.

R.