USAGOLD Discussion - April 2003

sector

(04/01/2003; 10:27:33 MDT - Msg ID: 100674)

T* Update

Recall, it's the date that the defending regime decides to stop defending......their falling or rising currency [In the case of Japan]. The US with an ever shrinking "Coalition" of willing central banks sells its gold to defend the US currency. As William McChesney Martin said in the Nixon Administration, "I will defend the dollar to the last ingot". His mistake was not having a retreat plan [More later in the week].

No body knows for sure how many ingots are left today but there are some metrics that carry value.

Gold volatility. Going up of late, beginning with the Feb 5th COMEX margin trick ambush...not unlike the Iraqi tactic of surrendering then launching a counter-attack. From Dec 5th to Feb 5th the upward move was a straight line saying "Look at me, I'm going up nice and smooth". Just like a white flag.

Currency volatility is going up, especially since the "Two-week war" isn't on schedule and especially today.

Physical gold off-take is rising too. Thus, we have tiny indicators of stress in the defense of the dollar.

The attack side of the equation is intensifying as well. Mexico has announced the sale of dollars, Russia and China have announced their intention to better balance their trade levels with their dollar reserves [China says it has too many dollars and proportionally not enough Euros]. The French and Germans are less than happy with dollars. Then there's oil with the Nigerians threatening to cut the US off from a bit less than 1 million strike-reduced bbls per day [Some reports have the strike settled today], Indonesians suggesting Euro pricing and so forth.

One can never be sure in a complex war about one's position and this gold war is no different. We CAN say that the opponent is cunning, ruthless and desperate...or else why the start Iraq war and why now? There had to be a particularly damaging economic loss condition that drove the March 20th invasion date [I reject the notion that that date was chosen to infuriate the Islamic World on its equivalent of Easter Sunday (Ashoura)]. What was it? [This observes that the WMD argument is a deflection]

Is the loss condition attributable to the credit and stock market downturn? They can be stretched by offshore off balance sheet, off budget derivative buying programs and the Fed's printing press. Is it the oil price rise or OPEC's cartel in general? Maybe, but we have a full 27 days of SPR from which to sell the price down and if push came to shove, we can ration to get by until a more perfect war launch date and OPEC is waning in importance. There was this appearance of a ticking clock that is eating away at the Administration and time finally ran out--forcing an attack under less than ideal circumstances.

The assumption of a quick and clean war as a cure for the previously pressing economic loss condition has now encountered the realities of a longer effort with unknown war cost loss levels for an unknown time interval in an increasingly hostile economic " Multi-Polar" World not to mention the political ramifications.

Using the military rule of vulnerability as a guide, we can say that gold is the most sensitive front in today's economic war for its price is accepted as the health meter for currencies. If the remaining supply of gold were plainly adequate then we would have seen a massive pounding of the price to back under $300 per ounce and not the amateurish tricks of a Saddam-like COMEX margin rules change. Nor would we have seen as we do today the furious up and down inter-day volatility.

Today's battle report from the gold war front has the enemy dug in at $333 and barely holding on with Gold-Bugs owning air superiority with unlimited ordnance supply and probing the Fed's defenses. A siege is in progress and "Day by Day", to quote the President, the enemy is being reduced and his forces "Degraded". Soon the Fed will break lines and run for a better defense position up on higher ground�or the master of the Universe may just say�"No Mas�No Mas"

cockerel1

(04/01/2003; 10:30:47 MDT - Msg ID: 100675)

On a lighter note!

http://tv.yahoo.com/news/wwn/20030319/104808600007.html?

'TIME-TRAVELER' BUSTED FOR INSIDER TRADING
Wednesday March 19, 2003

By CHAD KULTGEN

NEW YORK -- Federal investigators have arrested an enigmatic Wall Street wiz on insider-trading charges -- and incredibly, he claims to be a time-traveler from the year 2256!

Sources at the Security and Exchange Commission confirm that 44-year-old Andrew Carlssin offered the bizarre explanation for his uncanny success in the stock market after being led off in handcuffs on January 28.

"We don't believe this guy's story -- he's either a lunatic or a pathological liar," says an SEC insider.

"But the fact is, with an initial investment of only $800, in two weeks' time he had a portfolio valued at over $350 million. Every trade he made capitalized on unexpected business developments, which simply can't be pure luck.

"The only way he could pull it off is with illegal inside information. He's going to sit in a jail cell on Rikers Island until he agrees to give up his sources."

The past year of nose-diving stock prices has left most investors crying in their beer. So when Carlssin made a flurry of 126 high-risk trades and came out the winner every time, it raised the eyebrows of Wall Street watchdogs.

"If a company's stock rose due to a merger or technological breakthrough that was supposed to be secret, Mr. Carlssin somehow knew about it in advance," says the SEC source close to the hush-hush, ongoing investigation.

When investigators hauled Carlssin in for questioning, they got more than they bargained for: A mind-boggling four-hour confession.

Carlssin declared that he had traveled back in time from over 200 years in the future, when it is common knowledge that our era experienced one of the worst stock plunges in history. Yet anyone armed with knowledge of the handful of stocks destined to go through the roof could make a fortune.

"It was just too tempting to resist," Carlssin allegedly said in his videotaped confession. "I had planned to make it look natural, you know, lose a little here and there so it doesn't look too perfect. But I just got caught in the moment."

In a bid for leniency, Carlssin has reportedly offered to divulge "historical facts" such as the whereabouts of Osama Bin Laden and a cure for AIDS.

All he wants is to be allowed to return to the future in his "time craft."

However, he refuses to reveal the location of the machine or discuss how it works, supposedly out of fear the technology could "fall into the wrong hands."

Officials are quite confident the "time-traveler's" claims are bogus. Yet the SEC source admits, "No one can find any record of any Andrew Carlssin existing anywhere before December 2002."

Weekly World News will continue to follow this story as it unfolds. Keep watching for further developments.

Maybe he was the mystery buyer of the 30 tons of gold from Portugal!

Clink!

(04/01/2003; 10:38:17 MDT - Msg ID: 100676)

Interesting chart work from Mr Sinclair

http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.aspMarket turning points on Gold, US$ and Silver. You also get some free samples of his modesty and humility !

Daniel Druff

(04/01/2003; 10:43:59 MDT - Msg ID: 100677)

sector

"...not the amateurish tricks of a Saddam-like COMEX margin rules change." sector

Mike, I have to tell you something...I'm beginning to like you. Don't get me wrong, I think your anti-Patriot act is doing great damage, temporarily, to the education of the investing public regarding gold. But from a selfish standpoint that's fine, in that lower purchase prices contribute to bigger long-term gains. Carry on, say crazy things, insult the powers that be, turnoff the average conservative less informed citizen. Go GATA!

[With a smile on my face] Mike, has there ever been a bull market in the history of the world where margin requirements were not raised? I luv ya man.

DD

TownCrier

(04/01/2003; 11:13:49 MDT - Msg ID: 100678)

Brain surgery with a sledge hammer

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&ncid=1203&e=2&u=/nm/20030401/bs_nm/economy_dc&sid=95609869HEADLINE: Economy Hurting, May Need Fed Salve

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing suffered a surprisingly severe slowdown in March, a report on Tuesday showed, feeding fears that the economy as a whole may be contracting.

There were also signs of consumer fatigue, with surveys on chain store sales showing a marked deterioration last month.

"The case for a policy easing is building and while not everyone at the Fed may be over the line yet, if the data remains this weak they'll have to bite the bullet eventually," said strategist Rory Robertson, who covers the U.S. economy for the Australian bank in New York.

The turning point could come as soon as Friday, when the March labor report is released....

"The chances increase significantly for a 50-basis point rate cut by the Fed by its June meeting. I won't rule out an inter-meeting rate cut of 50 basis points," [said Vince Boberski, chief economist at RBC Dain Rauscher in Chicago.]

Official rates are already at a four-decade low of 1.25 percent...

-------(see url for the nitty gritty)------

Government effort at reflation through an obvious (yet unspoken) "easy money" policy will sacrifice your personal dollar's purchasing power on the alter of the common welfare. Avoid this stealthy sort of heavy "taxation" with a generous diversification into gold coins and bullion.

Call Centennial toll free to make arrangements today. (800) 869-5115

R.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/01/2003; 11:33:15 MDT - Msg ID: 100680)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

MK. Fundamentally, we believe that we are here to serve the client. Anyone who has done business with us will vouch for the courteous and professional service he or she has received. Our staff is carefully chosen and it shows. We get referrals on nearly a daily basis and are kept busy with strong repeat business. I would also like to call attention to the solid informational services offered at this website. We believe that any of our clients or visitors will find USAGOLD head and shoulders above anything else out there. I would encourage anyone attending this site to have a look around. We also publish a very good hard copy newsletter called News & Views: A Bi-monthly Review of Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Above and beyond that, the most important thing is the way we treat our clientele. From first inquiry through order fulfillment, we want to make the gold investing experience as pleasant and rewarding as possible. We have a large and satisfied clientele and that's the way we want to keep it.

mikal

(04/01/2003; 11:35:17 MDT - Msg ID: 100681)

U.S. economic mirage, "The house of cards", awaits the "former panic"

http://www.etherzone.com/2003/henr040103.shtmlWHAT PRICE WAR?
THE BEGINNING OF AWARENESS
By: Ed Henry
Tuesday, April 1, 2003, it has been 41 days since the nation hit the $6.4 trillion national debt ceiling and the Bush administration hasn't been able to borrow since. Two things are important here.
First, this is coming just after the greatest borrowing period America has ever seen. The national debt increased $421 billion in new debt during fiscal 2002 and so far this fiscal year the Bush administration has added another $217 billion for a grand total of $638 billion borrowed in five quarters. And it's just the beginning.
Since January, the U.S. Treasury has been in a holding action on borrowing until we finally hit the debt limit on February 20, 2003 under the supervision of a new Secretary of the Treasury, the last treasurer having left rather abruptly.
Normally, this would be a time of crisis. We would have media commentators acting hysterically. There would be warnings of national bankruptcy, government shut-downs, and all sorts of disaster. This time, there isn't a peep.
We all know why there has been no mention of the national debt. The Fourth Estate, or what passes for news in this country, has been almost totally immersed in promoting the Bush administration's war effort. But you should also notice what this silence says about the former panics and how valid they were.
Foolishly, one little symptom of reality has shown up like a single piece of flack in the latest bombardment to "support our troops in Iraq." Reuters and the Associated Press have been covering congressional arguments over the President's proposed budget for fiscal 2004 and whether it sufficiently covers the cost of war and rebuilding Iraq after we crush the relatively harmless pipsqueak Hussein regime.
Such news is foolish, not only because we have no idea what the war and its promotion has cost taxpayers so far or what it may cost us from this point forward, but because it's what Congress always does anyway. My God, we just passed the budget for fiscal 2003, the year we're already into by six months, and you can safely expect the same sort of congressional bickering to go on well past the time when the new fiscal 2004 budget is supposed to go into effect on October 1, 2003.
As a symptom of reality, however, the fact that Congress is finally concerned about the cost of this war and particularly the cost of occupying and rebuilding Iraq is extremely valid. This is the second point I promised you above.
During the first Gulf War when we drove Saddam's troops out of Kuwait and went no further, the rest of the world was willing to support us financially both in terms of the war itself and cleaning up Kuwait.
This time, we are much more likely to encounter a response from our friends that, to put it bluntly, says; Hey, you wanted this invasion at a time when inspections seemed to be working and could have been improved and amplified if there was a deadline. We could have peacefully accomplished the same thing with containment that had already been working for twelve years. Now you ask us for money. You know what the richest nation in the world can now do with its pleas for financial aid from the rest of us.
This is further complicated by the fact that the Euro has been competing with the dollar for some time and especially in terms of oil from Iraq.
Do you really think Britain, Spain, and Australia are going to come up with a bunch of cash when they've got financial troubles at home? Or that we can pry it out of them with expensive oil through our international oil baron companies? Lots of luck.
The Bush "go it alone" first strike policy is going to come home to roost in a hurry unless we simply turn our backs on the "liberated" people of Iraq, seize our oil that somehow got under their sand, and forget about rebuilding their infrastructure.
The house of cards the U.S. government has built is liable to completely collapse. Fraud and deception that has been going on for years may come unglued. And, as usual and God willing, I'll still be trying to bring it to your attention as it happens.
Mistake #1
Holding at the current debt ceiling of $6.4 trillion not only proves that the government can truly live within its means when it must and could always have achieved balanced budgets, but seems to be a crazy attempt to hold off until April 15th in hopes of a windfall bonus on the annual tax date.
Too many Americans believe that they are among the few filing for refunds by April fifteenth. Last year these refunds averaged about $1,400 per recipient. And somehow, many don't seem to understand that their employer sends a significant portion of their paycheck to the government every month or so, that personal income tax is constantly flowing into government coffers.
Mostly, it's the big guys and the self-employed who pay heavy taxes on the final tax day. This is the time when they must reconcile the quarterly estimates they've been sending and come up with the balance due. And the truly astute big guys hedged their estimates with overpayment safety valves and now fall on the refund side.
Last year, the feds expected an April windfall and it didn't happen. Instead, the government received a significant shortfall in expected tax revenue, a shortfall that led to a great deal of borrowing in order to continue their planned budget spending.
In fiscal 2002, April receipts from corporations were less than half of the previous year, $9.8 billion compared to $23.7 billion the year before. Personal income tax receipts were almost as bad, all due to a sour economy.
You would think that the many people planning the next year's budget would take this into account, but they didn't. The fiscal 2003 budget was established on the false belief that the recession would be over. Things would have returned to normal.
Here's what the government has received so far this year, taken from the U.S. Treasury's Monthly Report for February 2003:
Notice that "Net Receipts" from both individual and corporate taxes so far this year in the middle column "Fiscal Year To Date" are down considerably from last year, and you just saw how bad last year turned out.
Individual income taxes stand at $331.5 billion to date while at the same time last year the figure was $374 billion. Corporate income taxes stand at $33 billion compared to $63 billion last year.
You might also note where "Net Outlays" are up and where they're down, but pay particular attention to "Social insurance and retirement receipts" in the "Net Receipts" area. And remember, payroll taxes produced an $89 billion surplus for Social Security in fiscal 2002 despite high unemployment and all the talk about surpluses disappearing.
Again this year, the phony Social Security trust funds (Federal Old Age & Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance) have increased. They now stand at a combined total of $1.4 trillion and constitute 21.7 percent of the national debt. And that's only so far this year.
President Bush talks about the unfairness in double taxation on stock holder dividends, but it's nothing compared to the double taxation of the American worker in regard to payroll taxes.
If or when the Social Security Administration must ever draw upon its debit black hole "trust fund" in order to meet obligations to the retired and disabled the American worker or his children will be paying the same taxes, plus interest, that they already paid once before, original payroll taxes that the government took and spent elsewhere.
That's real double taxation. In the case of stockholders, the corporation paid the taxes the first time.
It's happening right now.
The Department of Labor has been drawing down on the Unemployment Trust fund for months now and this trust is in the same condition as the Social Security trust fund. It has no money, only debt with interest added.
In July of 2001, the Unemployment trust fund had about $92 billion. Today, it's down to less than $54 billion. And that means taxpayers have already been double billed for $38 billion that employers paid originally but the government stole and pretended to borrow.
Here are the figures:
Everything in red indicates money that had to come either from current income and corporate taxes that was supposed to go somewhere else or from borrowing. Given the increases in the national debt, you can assume it came mostly from borrowing.
May of 2002 was when interest was paid the trust fund without cash involved. The Beltway Bandits simply hand the trust more junk bonds.
Since the government has been unable to borrow for the last 41 days, the month of March, 2003, will be the first time we can be absolutely certain that the shortfall in money to pay the unemployed came solely from the Treasury's general fund of current taxes. In other words, in March a sizeable chunk of your tax money went to pay the unemployed instead of going to education, agriculture, or any other part of discretionary spending. It was not put on the never-never credit card plan for your children to pay.
In Summary
What is happening is exactly the same thing that would be happening if there were no trust funds at all. Shortfalls would be made up for by taking money from current taxes, money meant to go elsewhere, or borrowing it from investors.
In other words, there are at least twenty entitlement trust funds that are a sham, completely fraudulent, and part of a scam set up by the government. The entire "Intragovernmental Holdings" section of the national debt, $2.7 trillion in bogus holdings and 43 percent of the national debt, could be eliminated tomorrow with no harm to anyone but the perpetrators of a scam that makes Enron, WorldCom, and other private sector crooks look like children at play.
Keep your eyes on the war, the government's greatest weapon of mass distraction.
"Published originally at EtherZone.com : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact."

Daniel Druff

(04/01/2003; 11:48:25 MDT - Msg ID: 100682)

Oops!

The Le Ronde Gold Mine Has COLLAPSED!!!!Now this is news: Stop...think about this for just a moment...the world's immediate supply of gold has just declined.

Thankfully, no injuries and no loss of reserves but a rather unusual way to get a little leverage.

DD

physicalman

(04/01/2003; 12:19:19 MDT - Msg ID: 100684)

Daniel Druff--my interjection

Gotta comment on some of your recent remarks about Bill murphy'sector,beuna fe and others
1: I for one want no other than a sometimes loud, screaming, raving, insulting true patriot such as Murphy and others carrying the torch for the battle against gold manipulation. I doubt very seriously that being a nice, Ph'd type with quiet scholary discussion is going to get anything accomplished except compliments on mannerisms. The vast majority of people will never get on the precious metal train until it is too late. Probably only 1/2 of 1% of the population has physical gold and silver investments in the last 6 years and more will not jump on the bandwagon until it is too late. The true fact of the matter is very,very few people can actually get by right now with a totally free and honest price of gold and silver. I believe that i could to a greater extent than most for i have no debt, large physical PM positions, lots of stockpiled neccessities and paid for land and homes, but i would still have to have large amounts of fiat to pay taxes, buy fuel and energy'special foodstuffs, etc., etc. because the system we live under still accepts the paper and digital fiat as payment for these things. Murphy and others know that most folks who know the truth are already onboard and there are not too many more minds to sway. So let them holler the truth at the top of their lungs and call a spade a spade! I for one am sick and tired of people tippy-toeing around the truth so as to not upset or alienate anyone. A liar is a liar and a crook is a crook. The bullion bankers, Fed and many of the powers in our and other govts. and previous administrations are guilty of nothing less than treason for what has been done to our glorious constitution.
Sector's referral to the Comex as Saddam-Like is dead on.

How true would be your understanding of all the real reasons for gold and silver ownership. Showing a paper profit is probably the last thing. If one thinks very deeply about the subject there are only three true properties that one could possess in our country right now
1: physical gold
2: physical silver
3: patented mining claim
Right now everything else that i can think of can be taxed away-homes, land, cars, personal property and even your labor. But remember that gold and silver are only true property as i think Aristotle said if their is no forced conversion to fiat as there was in 1933. Not fussing at you per se just think that we would be a lot further from the truths that are known about the monetary crimes that have been committed if we had likable mild-mannered pansies as our delegates instead of warriors such as Murphy,Sinclair, Howe and so many others that i could not possbly mention them all. I have been in the metals since the sixties but i am more like a supply officer. GATA is the Patton leading the battle at the front lines!
Get Gold! Get Silver! And raise cain about the rest!

Briale

(04/01/2003; 12:32:34 MDT - Msg ID: 100685)

The truth of the unknown.

This is my first message on the esteemed forum and I would like to keep it short and rant free, but folks that have seen my posts elsewhere will know that is impossible. I apologize in advance for the length.

First off it seems that investors in general, and gold investors in particular, love to play the part of Cassandra. This quality in itself is not a bad thing except when the part begins to play you. The present day world begins to look like shadows and the future that only you can see becomes your present reality. This is when you can fall into that open manhole in front of your path. I attribute this to the contrarian habit of not thinking linearly and not becoming a true believer. It can be a rewarding way of thinking but only if the timing is right. In this regard gold-bugs, or any investor, can be their own worst enemy as the belief in their own crystal clear future clouds their perception of the present day. To be a true contrarian is to listen to what an ancient wise man once said, "Do not believe in me, do not believe what I say. Do not believe something because I have said it. Experiment with it, go through it, and until you achieve your own conclusion remain in doubt. Your own experience will become your faith."

So how does this pertain to gold and the world of today? What do we as individuals within a massive social construct really need to know? Can we get all the pertinent information necessary to perceive the future? NO! Therefore the purchase of gold should be the foundation of an investors future wealth, as a hedge for the future. It should not be a purchase to exploit a future reality that has not, and may not arrive.

Will the dollar be around in the future? Yes, especially if the dollar remains defined in terms of itself i.e. one dollar=100 cents and 1 cent=1/100 of one dollar. The dollar will not change in that regard, but the balance of the esoteric intangible dollar against the reality of tangible fungible goods will and must change. Will gold go to thousands of dollars per ounce? Perhaps, but what will be the relationship between the dollar and gold and other dollar denominated goods at that point? It is an unknown but it is not a moot point. Therefore gold as an investment is prudent as gold has been time tested as the most stable fungible asset known to man. The corolary to this idea is that, at least in the present fiat system which is skewed in favor of inflation, gold is for saving for the future and dollars are for spending in the present at least as long as the present system is still operational. The amount of time that defines the present and future, of course is left up to the individual investor.

Are we at Hubbert's peak in world oil production? Are the Russians right about their theories of abiotic oil formation? Does it matter? In the present time, yes it does matter as policies both monetarily and militarily are predicated on consistent energy flows. The system is very similar to a company that is heavily indebted and relies on constant sales to generate cash flow to service interest payments. The day the flow stops is the day the game ends. Without an oil economy there will come a change in human life. What will be the outcome? Your guess is as good as mine. For all we know it could generate a glorious Jeffersonian utopia. Or it could be Huxley-esque vision of utopia=horror. Yet another reason to hold gold due to its time tested use as a means of exchange throughout time and in many different forms of human society.

Yes the future is uncertain. Gold can be the investment to make that uncertainty less foreboding and free yourself to deal perceptively and wisely in the present day. I am just as sure that the ounces of gold I have now will remain ounces of gold in the future, just as I am unsure whether the paper in my wallet and portfolio will be exchangeable for an equivalent number of ounces of gold in the future. How much gold is necessary? That too is unknown, but knowing how many dollars are needed to function within today's system is, and I personally use that as my guide. Although I have not dealt with MK and his staff at present, when I acquire more dollars than I need to spend in the present day, I will add to my sovereign future.

Daniel Druff

(04/01/2003; 12:47:03 MDT - Msg ID: 100686)

physicanman

Civilization -vs- AnarchyAnarchy is really an uncivilized way to live, imho.

GATA, by charter definition, can offer no improvement to our fiat-credit-system. In terms of Economic Theory, they are intellectually bankrupt...they offer nothing. They are playing a losing hand as defined by their reward should they win...they get paid in fiat! Why would they act this way knowing that gold is priced in Dollars which are not backed by gold or silver...because they are obsessed with the spirit of anarchy, imo.

Bill and his friends should concentrate on The Cafe and let Chris and James Grant (hope, hope, hope) to their thing. The first thing should be a slight change in the Charter...we need a new system period

DD

OvS

(04/01/2003; 12:50:38 MDT - Msg ID: 100687)

Re: Saudi Suggestion

Just read on the NY Times web page:
"A Saudi suggestion that Saddam Hussein
step down got a pungent reply from
Iraq's vice president: "Go to Hell".

Maybe he meant it literally; Hussein
is dead and that's where you can talk
to him...?

sector

(04/01/2003; 12:54:20 MDT - Msg ID: 100688)

Daniel Druff Condemns GATA and Opines That...

...the United States Constitution is Anarchy......because it directs that [After numnerous pages of Federalist Papers justifications] gold and silver should be the unit of exchange.

He suggests that our corrupt fiat unbacked monetary system or some nebulous tooth-fairy based banking unit is somehow better than the document our fore fathers [After witnessing France's paper money debacle] signed.

I'll stand with the United States Consitution.

Gandalf the White

(04/01/2003; 13:02:56 MDT - Msg ID: 100689)

WELCOME Sir Briale !

Briale (04/01/03; 12:32:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 100685)
The truth of the unknown.
===
Thanks for joining the discussion at the TABLEROUND !!
Let us hear more from you soon.
<;-)

Aristotle

(04/01/2003; 13:13:55 MDT - Msg ID: 100691)

physicalman, where would we be if we had "likable mild-mannered pansies" as our delegates?

I've climbed a mountain of books and had plenty of hands on, but have gain more insights and inspirations from the powerful leadership of FOA than all else combined. He's a *flower* in a desert if ever there was one.

Belgian is another of my favorite pansies. I've gleaned a lot of political appreciations from the rosie stylings of Miner49er, without any thorns in sight. Look at Mr. Gresham... ain't he a daisy? And when you deal with the staff of this place you're practically hip-deep in cherry blossoms.

Unfortunately, it only takes a few vocal loonies with less than half a grasp on half a story to give Gold and every Gold investor a stereotypical bad reputation for the media and others to exploit to their own advantages. To the extent than anyone of these vocal guys step into the spotlight attempting to play the part of Gold's champion, they'd better bear public perception in mind 'cause at the end of the day, they need Gold a helluva lot more than Gold needs them.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Mr Gresham

(04/01/2003; 13:25:20 MDT - Msg ID: 100692)

Mikal

Thanks for the Ed Henry article and other good posts you bring to us so regularly.

"President Bush talks about the unfairness in double taxation on stock holder dividends, but it's nothing compared to the double taxation of the American worker in regard to payroll taxes."

Here's a thought I haven't heard elsewhere (I _do_ try to be original occasionally ;):

That advice about retirees downsizing their houses and cashing in the equity they've built. Hmmmm... I was explaining to my daughter yesterday about how many (most?) cultures keep the generations together under one roof, and grandparents are welcomed and respected in the home.

Perhaps we need to think Reversal here. If all of the paper financial systems are going ka-blooey in our "golden" years, maybe we should hang onto that "big" house, and keep some room for the youngers to move in; help us pay those soaring property taxes?

In fact, get 'em in ASAP; sell whatever bloated McMansion they've already bought into, or save on rent for the 20-somethings out there, consolidate the family's real estate outlays, and let 'em start paying for the place they may inherit someday.

Only problem is the commoditization of real estate. How many people really own a place they love, a place they imagine as a home for their grandchildren to play and grow up in? Rather than just another checkbook to be balanced and eventually closed...

Daniel Druff

(04/01/2003; 13:27:29 MDT - Msg ID: 100693)

sector

"But if they try to fight with minimal losses, accurately as they are doing it now, avoiding big clashes, the outcome is far from certain. Iraq has quite a serious army, and it hasn't yet started to fight." as posted by sector

Well they'd better get started real soon. You don't think that Iraq will use chem or bio weapons, do you? After all, they clearly stated that they didn't have any. So what will they use...they'll all start singing Rap Music and 1/2 our guys will run the other way...the other half had better be careful.

DD

Aristotle

(04/01/2003; 13:30:48 MDT - Msg ID: 100694)

Daniel Druff on and on

I don't care about Gata's bankruptcy, or anyone else's for that matter. I'd rather hear about the VIABLE SOLUTIONS that you see them failing to put forth. In other words, in the absence of a Gata brain trust, howzabout giving us some of your own ideas for corrective measures to the flaws of the monetary sytem as we now have it. Nobody ever said we've all gotta just sit back and hang our hats on whatever it is that Gata's spewing out as a finger-pointer or whatever they are. The pioneers who settled the West certainly didn't sit around and wait for it.

If it's broke, chip in a fix it. Instead, you're publically whipping the boy who's just standing there crying over spilled milk. I think you can do better than that. We all can.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Mr Gresham

(04/01/2003; 13:45:04 MDT - Msg ID: 100695)

Ari

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/goldtrailone.htmlThanks for your floral compliments; in fact, I think I see the FTD truck pulling up in the driveway right now.

I've dealt with Pattons & I've dealt with Gandhis, I just can't take too much of any one type all at once. (If Patton hadn't slapped that shell-shocked GI in the hospital, would we have the same harsh image?)

In fact, my local situation has just eased up considerably, so I feel less inclined to step in as peacemaker in all situations. Especially the Forum -- its robustness is proving itself over and over, in good times and hard -- wouldn't you agree? ;)

FOA definitely pointed us to the larger picture, the one we would probably never see behind the scenes. Thus the lack of need for a gold cheerleader. (In fact, Bernanke is perhaps living proof that, at the end of its timeline, it is FIAT that needs the cheerleader! And by touting one of its _worst_ qualities, abundance, too!)

And yet, I appreciate someone stepping out with drive and determination, a bit of heroism, and willing to turn over a few rocks. It helps pass what has turned out to be a long time, since we first read words like:

"Hello everyone, I'm glad you could come along. My name is FOA. I see a lot of old faces here,,,, and some new. If you are wondering where we are,,,,,, you're participating in one of our walks and talks on "The Gold Trail". You're one of many people who take the long drive out of the city to come here. Some say it clears their mind from things that are not real. Whatever the reason, it seems everyone arrives here sooner or later. "

With all of the events of the past months, I wish I could pull out time for a re-read. Seems everyone's talking our topics these days. It may not be the beginning of the end, but it probably is the end of the beginning, isn't it?

These days, we hardly know if we're crossing the Rubicon to Imperial America, or the Rhine to Dollar Defeat...

Waverider

(04/01/2003; 13:47:12 MDT - Msg ID: 100696)

DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlSnip:
"This is the first time in decades that all the major world economies are coming apart at the same time. It is a strange world when all the major world economies struggle to weaken their currencies against each other for a competitive edge in a shrinking market. It will get worse as debt continues to pile up to new record breaking levels day by day. In the United States, Americans have spent all or more of their income and are buried in debt. Add to that rising job losses, rising corporate debt and rising credit downgrades, and record government debt and it is easy to see that the U.S. dollar will be in decline for decades at least. I wish it were just a bad April Fools Day joke but its not."

Cometose

(04/01/2003; 13:52:17 MDT - Msg ID: 100697)

SILVER

I am doing this because it is APRIL FOOL'S DAY ;
and because the extended war is putting a warp on the other financial news....; this will also serve as reality check for me ....

Yesterday, there was news.....about SILVER....
from MARCH 24 from the NEVADA LEGISLATURE regarding MINTING SILVER COINS AS currency lawful for Paying obligations...

PINCH ME so that I know that I am not dreaming.....IF THIS IS REAL AND IT BECOMES LAW , it bears repeating daily until legislation is passed......THOSE folks over in NEVADA seem to be a progressive bunch ...

ALSO Can someone confirm that REFCO yesterday recommended buying SILVER ?????

The cloud will dissipate , the fog will dissapear, the Euphoria will be replaced with the hard cold facts one day ..
when the elephant can no longer be covered up by the illusionists on wall st and in the main stream press and in the govt' .....THe disclaimers that keep coming out of the FED are an indication to me that the slaughterhouse around the corner that we are smelling but can't see is getting ready to be unveiled right in front of our eyes....

I lived in Emporia , KS in a former life; It was quite smelly in the summer when the wind blew across town ....which it always did....( they put the slaughterhouse on the wrong side of the prevailing winds{we at this forum may also because of the information we have been given may also be found on the wrong side /informed side of the prevailing winds})
This experience is being brought back to my memory regularly now because of the smoke and mirrors we are seeing all around us ........
When in Emporia , we could smell the burning ....and we knew that the butchering had happened ......
as NICK GUARINO says .....It already happened.....there's no reversing what has occured......the wealth of three generations has been vaporized by WALL STREET lying cheating thieves.....NOT much in the news about the huksters getting their due.....Martin Wiess says that there is another round of shocks coming that are unraveing at the major brokerage houses...brought to you by the SEC.

I am so thankful that Providence would have it that I am sitting here today, reading this forum , and continuing my education in REALITY and REALITY ECONOMICS....

Black Blade

(04/01/2003; 14:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 100698)

WHY JOBS DATA WON'T BE BELIEVED

http://www.nypost.com/business/72384.htm
Snippit:

April 1, 2003 -- THE real whining will start Friday. That's when Washington announces the first employment report since the war began in Iraq. And unless the Bush administration is prepared to clearly explain the flukes that made last month's report so bad, the nation's economy could soon become a key war issue. The first thing that needs to be said is that the economy isn't doing well. Manufacturing is looking weak for the first time this year, and debt-heavy consumers - distracted by the war and worried about their jobs - just aren't in the mood to spend. Economic growth in the first few months of this year probably has been minimal.

You might remember back to early last month, when the U.S. Labor Department announced that 308,000 jobs disappeared during February. It was a front-page headline in most newspapers and caused the administration to again start hollering about tax cuts. Did the economy really lose that many jobs in just one month? Probably not. The missing 308,000 jobs were likely the result of a statistical adjustment made to correct a mistake the month before. In January, the government announced that 143,000 jobs were created, including a highly unlikely 100,000 positions that allegedly sprang up in the retailing part of the economy. Retailers adding 100,000 jobs after the Christmas season!!?? Not likely.

So the extra-gloomy February employment report was probably caused in part by the overly optimistic findings the month before. The numbers being produced by the U.S. Labor Department, in particular, just aren't credible and haven't been for years. Which gets me to this Friday's number. The experts are expecting another 40,000 jobs to disappear. And the unemployment rate is seen jumping one-tenth to 5.9 percent.

Black Blade: The BLS data is flawed as I have pointed out repeatedly. There are several flukes in how the data is tabulated and how the data is tweaked with dubious filters and a lot of massaging. The actual unemployment rate is somewhere in the 11-12% range and perhaps even slightly higher as estimated by several non-government researchers and even exposed in the past by various reporters such as the author of this article (John Crudele). I have covered this in excruciating detail in the past. As the recession drags on it is an obvious conclusion that the unemployment rate won't improve much if at all. I fully expect to see the "real" unemployment rate exceed 25% before the recession and subsequent depression runs its course.

Black Blade

(04/01/2003; 14:12:55 MDT - Msg ID: 100699)

Emerging Market Debt Gets Record Flows as Stocks Fall

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APolxthXdRW1lcmdp
Snippit:

London, April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market debt funds received more money this year than in all of 2002 as investors sought Russian and other developing-nation bonds as alternatives to sinking stocks and the lowest U.S. Treasury note yields in 50 years.

Black Blade: Ah yes, the "swoosh" sound of cash leaving the major markets for the Third World as major currencies and markets tumble into oblivion. A controlled crash or a nose dive for the major markets? Time will tell.

FreeWillie

(04/01/2003; 14:23:15 MDT - Msg ID: 100700)

@Belgian: That's why the ECB doesn't mind to mark its goldreserves to market...a future free goldmarket !!!

Do you mean by "mark to market" that ECB is valuing its gold according to market price?

If that is so, where is the evidence that this will continue to be the case after the dollar is blown to smitherines?

My question was more specific. I know you believe all of these things; I also know that FOA explains it all (but see ORO's ciriticism). My question remains: where is the legal/regulatory evidence?

FW

Daniel Druff

(04/01/2003; 14:25:23 MDT - Msg ID: 100701)

Aristotle

I. "To the extent than anyone of these vocal guys step into the spotlight attempting to play the part of Gold's champion, they'd better bear public perception in mind 'cause at the end of the day, they need Gold a helluva lot more than Gold needs them." Aristotle

II. "If it's broke, chip in and fix it. Instead, you're publically whipping the boy who's just standing there crying over spilled milk. I think you can do better than that. We all can.them." Aristotle

That makes 3 of us...GB, Aristotle, and DD vote for "perception". With that in mind, it would be a distinct pleasure and honor to discuss a possible solution to the failings of our current monetary system. But I think we're going to need some help. Without Randy and MK we are probably wasting our time.

The Federal Reserve System is an unconstitutional experiment which has failed miserably in doing what is allowed by its' charter. Someone should politely mention this to members of the establishment and especially the investing public. But now WE have a problem...the Charter of USAGold does not allow them to enter into this type of problem solving, so...maybe Randy and MK could act as the devil's advocate. They could offer logical objections to our theories, no?

DD

Black Blade

(04/01/2003; 14:35:03 MDT - Msg ID: 100702)

SARS seen threatening Asian economies

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20030331.wbsars/BNStory/Business
Snippit:

Hong Kong � Empty airliners, deserted department stores, vacant restaurants. In the city hardest hit by a mystery flu-like illness that has killed 62 people worldwide, there are signs of a potentially devastating economic impact. "This could be the worst thing since the Asian financial crisis. Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan could easily go into recession," said Andy Xie, a managing director of investment bank Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. Mr. Xie was one of only three passengers travelling in business class on a recent flight from London, but the drop-off in travel to the region is only part of the picture. Department stores, shopping malls and restaurants, from the cheapest noodle and fast-food joints to upscale gourmet establishments, are far emptier than usual. "How can you enjoy a meal when the waiters are tiptoeing around in masks? It's like going to a morgue," Mr. Xie said. "If this continues for very long, we're going to see mass bankruptcies."

Black Blade: I can see it now � "SARS tapped for economic downturn". First it was "the weather" as it is too cold to go shopping, now it's the "CNN Effect" as consumers are tied to their television sets and not going shopping, and soon it will be "fear of SARS" keeps consumers from shopping. Wall Street is getting absolutely loony as they desperately search for lame excuses for the economic downturn. As the consumer is two thirds of the economy this will likely be the trend. Today an American Airlines passenger jet was quarantined at San Jose Airport due to suspected SARS infected passengers. Wall Street investment houses are having conference calls discussing how to play the "SARS effect" for shorting Asian stocks (per Bob Pisani on CNBC). Oh yeah, and SARS has hit North American shores recently and soon we will all be wearing surgical masks � now there's an investment tip for ya � going long on "surgical mask makers". "Interesting Times"

Black Blade

(04/01/2003; 14:51:13 MDT - Msg ID: 100703)

Is this the second dip?

http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/31/markets/recession/index.htm
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Investors may not have to worry about whether the economy might plunge back into recession for much longer. Increasingly, it looks as though the plunge has already begun. Economic reports for February were downright abysmal, suggesting that the economy had rapidly lost the momentum that it had begun the year with. March's opening shot, the Chicago-area Purchasing Managers' Index, came in far below economists' already-dour predictions. If anything, indications are that the economy was even worse in March than it was in February. In a morning note Monday, Merrill Lynch chief North American Economist David Rosenberg said that, as far as he could tell, the economy contracted both months. If there is going to be a recession, according to Rosenberg, we're probably already in it.

"There's nothing out there that's going to lead the recovery," said Brown Brothers Harriman fixed-income portfolio manager Richard Koss. "Businesses don't want to spend -- they're more focused on paying down debt than on buying things." Koss isn't even all that sure that the economy ever came out of recession. Nor is the NBER, which still hasn't got around to declaring when the recession that began in March 2001 ended. Earlier this month it said that, because employment continues to suffer, it still needs time to determine whether the last downturn, in fact, ended.

Black Blade: As I have been saying, we never emerged from recession but the pinheads on Wall Street blather on about two consecutive negative quarters of GDP. Somehow some of these clowns actually got college degrees in economics. Hmmm�

Aristotle

(04/01/2003; 15:05:12 MDT - Msg ID: 100704)

Daniel, call me blind, but I see nothing resembling roadblocks in our way

Don't you think the Gold Trail is a perfect example of a scope for discussions on repairs for the monetary system? If that's not enough, there's another place where I launched into an overview of the basic inflation/deflation movements of our banking-based monetary system, proposing the complete delinking of Gold from the realm of banking. This turned into a huge discussion thread that Randy archived (I dunno, is that a charter thing?) and FOA warmly embraced on the Trail.

As far as Gold's role is displayed in the context of it all, I think this table's wide open to hammer out the ills of the present system, right here, right now. In fact, isn't that what a fair number of us have been doing all along? The thing is, I've already spilled most of my brains on the matter, and I'm sure nobody wants to see me chew my cabbage twice in monologue form. If you want to discuss it, well, this is one sure place to find me and several other chaps brighter than me with this common interest.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Socrates964

(04/01/2003; 15:11:49 MDT - Msg ID: 100705)

DanielDruff

With all due respect, you are grasping the wrong end of several sticks, but let's just deal with your point about GATA getting paid in fiat.

I can only suggest that you either read a book on inflation economics or go and live in a 3rd world country with a fundamentally rotten currency to get the rather obvious point that you are missing, which is as follows:

If I start with a situation where I have a weekly supermarket bill of say $335, in gold terms, I my supermarket bill is 1 oz of gold. Let's say we have 100% inflation, and my supermarket bill goes up to $670, but gold goes up 300% to $1,340 - in gold terms, my supermarket bill has gone down to 1/2 oz gold - a pretty good trade, because I can pay my grocery bills and still have $670 left over in cash.

Now, you seem to be of the belief that the game stops here and that I then sit back and watch my $670 turn to dust. It's more likely that gold has overshot, so I put on another trade (maybe a gold short), and then another trade (maybe a gold long) and another trade, etc. and I keep trading away shifting from one asset class to another ad infinitum or until the dollar falls apart, or I just give up and put it into a non-paper store of value (gold, real estate, paintings, etc.)

The point is that I no longer care what my nominal return is in dollars - what interests me is my return over and above the rate of inflation, and I review my trades monthly, weekly or daily, if need be. Anything that outperforms inflation is a great investment - even if it's a toilet roll or can of beans, and even I only stay positioned for a week. All that counts is to beat inflation (adjusted for my home currency).

I no longer do my TA on nominal prices because I just have a vertical line - I do it on a price graph, deflated by a price index.

The rate of inflation enters into everything - there is no such thing as an in-the-money call option any more. Bonds just become inflation proxies.

But...the dollar will always be the sovereign currency of the US, and I will never be in a situation of going shopping with a cheese grater and a gold bar (I may be able to use it for big ticket items like cars and houses to get round the tax authorities) - it will just be obvious that while the greenback remains a means of exchange, no-one will take it seriously as a store of value.

Frankly, I think you're naive to attack GATA. Assuming gold breaks free, Bill Murphy's great achievement will not be that he liberated the POG single handed (probably big Asian money that will), but that he offered the little guy an escape route from the financial gulag that US financial markets have become. I think he deserves enormous respect for this, if nothing else.

Golden Bear

(04/01/2003; 16:09:47 MDT - Msg ID: 100706)

Daniel Druff (msg#: 100701)

DD,

it is the nature of the markets that the lowest common denominator, ie the average joe, will see the major trends of the financial world last. This is the reason why the real estate bubble hasn't popped yet.

There is little you and I can do for the masses, they will, as history has shown repeatedly, react to their situation too late to avoid the carnage that is coming.

If you don't believe that, go into your local super market and yell at the top of your voice that paper money is an illusion and worth nothing, and only gold has real value/worth, and let me know the response you get :)

As for discussion of financial system alternatives, Ari has summed it up nicely with a floral touch(put a smile on my face first thing in the morning - thanks Ari!).

Cheers.

Belgian

(04/01/2003; 16:28:49 MDT - Msg ID: 100707)

@ Free Willie

Yes the ECB values it gold-exchange-reserves, at the end of each quarter at the marketprice.
75% of the world's exchange reserves are US$. If the dollar starts to depreciate (exchange rate/purchasing power) rapidly...all these CB dollar exchange reserves are devaluing. POG rises and goldreserves, marked at rising marketprices, do compensate for the loss on the dollar-reserves. Why would one stop marking to market ? The euro will have found strength from its value-rising goldreserves. Dollar decline will cause hyper-price-inflation as to catch up on decades of dollar-inflation. Further POG rises will soften the hyperinflation spill over to the euro-zone. Why should one stop a free gold system that supports one's currency ? And more especially so when other CBs decide to exchange their dollar-reserves for euro-reserves. The old gold-dollar-standard will be replaced by the euro-gold-concept. Past trade flows will alter into the opposite direction. The dollar block might take the, gold-associated, euro-reserve, into its own CB-reserves.

FW, I am not a blind follower nor fanatic believer in any euro dogmas. But the whole concept makes still a lot of sense to me. Especially when oil (and its future) is brought into the (euro-gold) equation.

What kind of legal/regulatory evidence are you expecting ?
One can hardly expect that the architects of the euro-concept in relation to what will happen to gold...are going to *publicize* what they have in mind. Did one had any indication that Nixon was going to close the gold-window in 1971 and therefor having the opportunity to position for a x25 POG explosion ? Or was the London goldpool, public evidence for the following gold-management ?

Is there black on white legal/regulatory, evidence, for the 3 decades Gold containment ?

We, the general public, are left with a WA/marking to market and a secret LBMA, going public in 1997, to make plausible conclusions or speculations...and why not even gambles.

IMO, the dying dollar has gold as antithesis and the emerging euro has Gold as a friend, supporter and desires to be associated with this "wealth" of ages. That's why I'm saying that the euro has no fear to mark its gold-exchange-reserves to market, already NOW, within a contained POG.
This is organized for the very probable future of a free goldmarket where Gold will be fully revalued after decades of dollar-enforced, containment.

Gold (and oil) is the political metal par excellence. In politics, everything is possible, anytime ! But political trends are detectable without very explicit legal and regulatory evidences. Just imagine that 1% out of the 2% US fortunes holding 80% of dollar US purchasing power, decide to buy only 1 kg of gold (=200 IBM shares) per year...just for fun ? They would take a whole year of new gold offer (2,500 tonnes) out of the market in one go ! Simple, back of an envelop, maths. Who is going to give us legal/regulatory, evidence on a golden plate, that would suggest a POG projection into the thousands ($/�) ?

@ Gondolin: Do you find a satisfactory answer to your question, in the above reasoning ?

R Powell

(04/01/2003; 16:39:41 MDT - Msg ID: 100708)

Cometose

ALSO Can someone confirm that REFCO yesterday recommended buying SILVER ?????
From page 28 of the March 21, 2003 "Consensus"....
Snippet....

"Refco Global Research last stated, silver is near 4.40 support and looks over-sold. It is near the bottom of its Bollinger bands. Silver stands to benefit if gold can make headway. That said, the industrial outlook for silver remains suspect. Recent surveys suggest technology buyers are becoming less optimistic in their tech spending plans.
The prospect of war is a potential drag on travel, and so on the use of photographic film. In a risky trade we would buy 2 May silver at market. Risk close below 4.35 and expect 4.70."

Rich: Take this as you see fit. I see nothing there that really stands out. The Bollinger bands and oversold are technical indicators. Then comes the usual reference to suspect usage even though the supply/demand equation has been in a deficit since 1990. Then a reference to the fact that silver use is related to tech spending and photographic use and, of course, the obligatory connection to gold, namely, "Silver stands to benefit if gold can make headway."

However, I did mention this Refco recommendation as it is the first one that I can recall. Note also that they are not looking for a big move up. Like many big players, I believe that if Refco makes money in the commodities' game, it is by initiating tight stops in all positions while letting their winners run. If you make more on winning trades than you lose on losing trades, then, on net, being right only 50% of the time is enough. So, why do the research (which for most people is work). Just flip the coin and go! That is, it is their excellent money management that makes their net profits (again, IF indeed they are making money) rather than any great in depth research or better than average technical trading. It wouldn't surprise us, would it, if we found out that Refco makes its profits through commissions collected, not by intelligent trading?

Thanks for the Nevada silver coin news! Keep us informed!
Rich

steady

(04/01/2003; 16:42:24 MDT - Msg ID: 100709)

flowers ?

aristotle with your recent comparison to flowers can i just be a seed? a seed to become a Eschsholtzia californica --- a golden popy,

silvercollector

(04/01/2003; 17:23:12 MDT - Msg ID: 100710)

Socrates964

Every now and again a very good message comes out about inflation and value investing. Your latest is one of them, thanks.

I have tried to outline a similiar theme with little success a couple of times. Maybe I was too long winded.

Anyway, I have a question or two. I have imagined a straight line in the last 10 ten years representing, let's say, 'average' inflation of 2% per year Going to your toilet paper and beans theories and widening that to commodities and real estate etc. how does the 'inflation' of specfic assets plotted against the 2% line fair out?

I wish I could remember my old (very old) high school math to calculate compounded 2% inflation over 10 years. Let's say it's 40%. So what's a 'good deal', what's 'expensive'? Surely real estate is expensive, has it risen beyond the 40%. We know gold is cheap, it is less than 10 years ago.

Do we have any numbers than might show us udervalued/overvalued assets? There was a significant discussion some time ago that illustrated the '10 times' multiple going back to mid-70's. Is that also true of 10 years ago?

TIA

steady

(04/01/2003; 17:29:01 MDT - Msg ID: 100711)

1st off this isnt an april fools joke

http://www.leg.state.nv.us/72nd/bills/ab/ab532.htmlregarding nevada coing silver cause the federal reserve is illeagal and the usa, specifically congres, has failed on its monetary authority.
i have dug deeper. after getting off the phone with the nevada legislature here is the skinny on ab532.
this bill was introduced by committie on constitutional amendments, there is no specific author the bill came from the committe.

all bills have to be out of committe by the 11th of april.

friday april 4th is the last meeting of the committie on constitutional amendments before this deadline. the bill will be discussed and voted upon on friday to get out of committie.

Mr. mortenson is the chair of the committe and he will convien the meeting within 30 min of the ending of the friday floor session. typically fridays floor sessions are lasting 30 min or so. now it gets better. if you want to listen to the debate of the committe u can thanks to the net. go here http://www.leg.state.nv.us/ on the right side there is a link to live meetings listen or view. mr . mortensons aid informed me this meeting should be available.
this should be interesting to follow. does a state stand up to uncle sam and there allowing the federal reserve to contiue to print the dollar to worthlessness.

steady

(04/01/2003; 17:39:32 MDT - Msg ID: 100712)

i forgot the times in my excitment

nevads floor session ends around 11:30a.m.pacific daylight time, the meeting of the committie on constitutional amendments will begin within 30 min of the ending of the floor session.

should ber interesting. how come no media has picked up on this. time to email the news outlets!
can a state take on uncle sam and win?

R Powell

(04/01/2003; 18:05:54 MDT - Msg ID: 100713)

Steady (100711)

Good piece of researching, excellent work!
Please keep us informed.
Rich

Daniel Druff

(04/01/2003; 18:17:23 MDT - Msg ID: 100714)

Gold Will Always Take Care of Itself

"If you don't believe that, go into your local super market and yell at the top of your voice that paper money is an illusion and worth nothing, and only gold has real value/worth, and let me know the response you get :)" Golden Bear

"Frankly, I think you're naive to attack GATA. Assuming gold breaks free, Bill Murphy's great achievement will not be that he liberated the POG single handed (probably big Asian money that will), but that he offered the little guy an escape route from the financial gulag that US financial markets have become. I think he deserves enormous respect for this, if nothing else." Socrates964
********************************************

GB, yelling at the top of your voice in the super market is akin to some of the presentations made by Bill Murphy, who refers to his act as, "pounding on the table". It was certainly effective as far as my personal position goes but now that we have exited the Accumulation Phase of this Bull Market in Gold we need a more civilized approach.

Gold should not be promoted as a financial weapon of our current enemies, which includes anarchists of all stripes, nor is its ascension in value relative to all the world's fiat due to war, plague, or any other calamity you can imagine. If for no other reason, gold will increase in value, relative to fiat, because said fiat is easier to produce than gold...and that is what politicians do. They bribe voters with "fake money" - read, fiat. And in so doing they wipe out the savings of unaware citizens.

Socrates964, oh but I do respect Bill's initial work...it's his anti-Patriot act which offends me. He has disgraced himself, in my opinion. GATA needs a new leader regardless of my appreciation of Bill's past work.

The Federal Reserve System has to go...soon. And the sooner GATA promotes a new system, the better it will be. Rising prices and shortages are sure to arrive to the entire world. With as much fiat as there is floating around a hording mentality is sure to develop with a contraction of production. Don't let the scoundrels get away with price controls as a solution. Promote a "new" system to compete with the worn-out answers of the establishment. But do it nicely.

DD

Bulldog

(04/01/2003; 19:06:47 MDT - Msg ID: 100719)

Canada's woes

Contrary to most of the economies of the world we in Canada
are doing okay; however we are having other troubles--the Maritimes have been deluged in rain and have severe flooding, Toronto has quarantined thousands while trying to contain SARS, Air Canada goes to CCAA (bankruptcy protection)and we are having a blizzard in Alberta. It will disappear by the end of the week.
Since Canada went along with the U.N. and stayed out of the Iraqi conflict now we have a divided populace either with the U.S. or "agin" it. The Prez must know the rotten shape of things in the U.S. because this Iraqi war gamble is obviously for all the marbles. How do you take Baghdad with 5 million people a lot of whom are armed and not have mega "civilian" casualties? Impossible.
The Euro/Dollar/Oil scenario is playing out painfully before our eyes.

Golden Bear

(04/01/2003; 19:31:02 MDT - Msg ID: 100722)

Daniel Druff (msg#: 100714)

"...but now that we have exited the Accumulation Phase of this Bull Market in Gold..."

exited!?!

My good man, we are at the dawn of Gold's re-ascension as the wealth preserver par excellence (not that it ever lost it, but in the masses' perception)... the Universe is cyclical in nature, and the wild excesses of the last few years will be purged without fail. The masses still don't understand, therefore, the accumulation phase is still very much alive.

GB.

PS. On your opinion of sector's comments being unpatriotic, it never ceases to amaze, how one's words can be interpreted so differently by others... I personally do not see any glee in his comments, just a projection of his thoughts about the possible future outcomes of actions taken in the present; thoughts which the mainstream media in the US would not dare to publish...

Cytek

(04/01/2003; 19:36:00 MDT - Msg ID: 100724)

Global Airline Crisis Takes Another Victim

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030401/airlines_global_3.htmlGlobal Airline Crisis Takes Another Victim
Tuesday April 1, 8:29 pm ET
By Greg McCune

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Air Canada, the world's No. 11 carrier, filed for bankruptcy protection on Tuesday and more major airlines announced cuts in jobs and flights to cope with the crisis in global aviation made worse by the Iraq war.

Never in the history of the aviation industry has it been hit with so many negative factors out of its control, and there are fears that more of the world's leading airlines could be forced into bankruptcy.

The spiral began with a slump in travel after the Sept. 11, 2001, hijack attacks in the United States, a slowdown in the world economy, a rise in aviation fuel prices, the outbreak of a new respiratory ailment in Asia that has further discouraged travel, and a war in Iraq that has inflamed the Middle East.

Air Canada cited all those setbacks in filing for protection under Canadian law on Tuesday, the first major airline to succumb to bankruptcy since the start of the Iraq war. Its move came just one day after the world's largest carrier, American Airlines, narrowly averted a similar fate by striking deals with major labor unions to sharply cut costs.

Shares in AMR Corp. (NYSE:AMR - News), American Airlines' parent company, surged 90 cents, or 43 percent, to $3 on the New York Stock Exchange (News - Websites) on Tuesday as investors were relieved that it had managed to avert a bankruptcy filing, at least for now.

But the union representing pilots at American Airlines said on Tuesday that about 2,500 pilots will be furloughed or retire over the next year as part of the deal with the airline.

American Airlines admitted on Tuesday it was in a weak financial state and its future prospects were uncertain. In a U.S. regulatory filing, the carrier said it would have to delay some debt and lease payments.

Cytek- Another one bites the dust. AMR has staved of the inevitable, but for how long. And what will those 2500 pilots do.

Cometose

(04/01/2003; 20:01:37 MDT - Msg ID: 100725)

RICH and STEADY

THANKS

DoubleEagle

(04/01/2003; 20:03:41 MDT - Msg ID: 100726)

Nevada Assembly Bill 532

Just read the full text of 532 on the Nevada Assembly web site. Wow. Made the hair on my mostly bald scalp tingle. Total repudiation of the Federal Reserve Act. Wonder what kind of pressure the feds will put on them to kill the bill? I could see a future in which a block of independent minded western states ginned up their own precious metal economy. All it takes is a few states to agree to trade their silver issues back and forth, and there you go.

I also thought it was very smart of whomever drafted the bill to put both a dollar amount and a weight/fineness figure on each coin. Opens up the possibility of 1oz Silver Eagles and Maple Leafs trading alongside the Nevada issues with the same purchasing power. Would love to see gold in standard weights come to the party as well, but I'll take what I can get.

-DoubleEagle (whose namesake didn't need no stinkin' Federal Reserve to be worth something.)

R Powell

(04/01/2003; 20:15:01 MDT - Msg ID: 100727)

Cometose

My pleasure.

I'm still looking for any news that may tell us of silver trading on the Shanghai Exchange. I had heard rumors that today was the date to start, now (today) I've heard it may be as much a year away yet. :<) However, no one is offering any kind of official news or substantiation of any kind, only statements such as "according to my sources"... (Boy, I hate that one).

With the coming of Spring, my business should start to pick up soon. I'm thinking of offering a discount for bills paid in silver coin. What a bargin, I'll tell them, I'll pour and finish tonnes of concrete in return for a few pounds of silver! Hehehehe.....

R Powell

(04/01/2003; 20:24:03 MDT - Msg ID: 100729)

21 mabry

Back to Woodstock Please let us know if you find any good (farmable with timber and water) government land for free or extremely low priced. I'll start searching for my copy of "The Whole Earth Catelogy". If I can't find mine, I'll ask Mr. Gresham if I might borrow his (I'll bet he's got one!) Maybe I'll try a sluice box instead of panning for flashes if I ever get back to the wild side.

steady

(04/01/2003; 21:11:14 MDT - Msg ID: 100732)

maybe those guys/gals in nevada read this and decided to do something about it!

http://iresist.com/cbg/why.htmlThe original Mint Act, was passed on Thursday, January 12, 1792. This Act was drafted in Pursuance of the Constitution for the United States of America [See: Article VI, Clause 2] and provided for the minting of both gold and silver dollars under Section 9. This Act met all of the requirements of Article I, Section 8, Clause 5 and 6, and Article I, Section 10, Clause I. The issue of the United States being empowered to "emit bills of credit" was discussed in the Constitutional Convention on Thursday, August 6, 1787. The power and authority was denied to the general government upon good and sufficient grounds. It would take all of 75 years to subvert what the Constitution was designed to prevent and more: the erosion of confidence between man and man.

The issuance of paper as a "legal tender" and circulating medium of exchange did not occur until 1862 during the Civil War. The Congress authorized the emission of non-interest bearing Treasury notes and declared the bills of credit to be legal tender for all debts, public and private, with the exception of taxes on imports. The notes were deemed necessary to "float the debt of the United States" for the war effort. In short, the paper "green backs" were "printed" under pretext of "war powers".

On June 3, 1864, Congress passed "An Act to provide a National Currency, secured by a Pledge of United States Bonds, and to provide for the Circulation and Redemption thereof." This Act recreated the central banking system as a "National Association" which later evolved into the Federal Reserve Banks. All private bank notes issued under authority of the Act were "issued and circulated the same as money", had to be redeemable at "par value" (one-for-one) with the Coin, and were declared to be tender for the payment of all debts public and private under Section 23. "Pledging or hypothecating" any of the notes in circulation under this Act was prohibited under Section 37.

By 1908, the United States had accumulated a large deficit. Discussions had begun to surface concerning amendments to the Constitution regarding revenue and taxation. In 1909, Congress and the President passed the Corporate Tax Act of 1909 while knowing that the activity has previously been declared to be unconstitutional in Pollock vs. Farmers Loan And Trust Co., 187 U.S. 429 (1895). The Sixteenth Amendment was proposed by Congress on July 12, 1909. The Amendment was certified to be a part of the Constitution on February 25, 1913. The Constitutional impediment concerning State intervention in direct taxation has been removed, however it did not expand the taxing power of Congress beyond the limitations set forth in Article I, Section 8, Clause 1, and Article I, Section 9, Clause 4.

On December 23, 1913, Congress passed "An Act to provide for the establishment of Federal reserve banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford a means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes". The Act is commonly known as the "Federal Reserve Act". Some of the purposes for enacting the Federal Reserve Act were to:
(1) collect 94% of the "net earnings" of the Federal Reserve Banks under pretense of a "Franchise Tax" under Section 7;
(2) legalize and extend a "float" on the debts by reducing the backing or reserve requirements to 40% of the notes in circulation and transactions accounts under Section 11;
(3) authorize "hypothecation" of obligations including "United States bonds or other securities which Federal reserve Banks are authorized to hold" under Section 14(a); and,
(4) "establish branches in foreign countries or dependencies of the United States for the furtherance of the foreign commerce of the United States" under Section 25.

It is important to understand the term "hypothecation" as stated in Section 14(a) of the Act.

"1. Banking. Offer of stocks, bonds, or other assets owned by a party other than the borrower as collateral for a loan, without transferring title. If the borrower turns the property over to the lender who holds it for safekeeping, the action is referred to as a pledge. If the borrower retains possession, but gives the lender toe right to sell the property in event of default, it is a true hypothecation.
2. Securities. The pledging of negotiable securities to collateralize a broker's margin loan. Of the broker pledges the same securities to a bank as collateral for a broker's loan, the process is referred to as rehypothecation."
[Dictionary Of Banking Terms, Fitch, pg. 228 (1997)]

Section 16 of the Federal Reserve Act, which is codified at 12 USC 411, declares that "Federal Reserve Notes" are "obligations of the United States". The "full faith and credit" of the United States was thereby hypothecated and rehypothecated to the lending institutions for the issuance and emission of bills of credit as legal tender "for all taxes, customs, and other public dues". The paper in circulation and transactions accounts could then be inflated 60% and the purchasing power depreciated and reduced by an equivalent amount.

On June 17, 1917, Congress amended the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Section 6 of the Act broadened the capacity of the Federal Reserve Banks to engage in foreign commercial transactions and joint ventures in foreign countries. Section 7 reduced the reserve requirements on transaction accounts and circulating currency to 35%. The authorized float and expansion of credit, by another 5%, created a reciprocal rise in the price of goods and services, and a depreciation in the purchasing value of the circulating medium of exchange. The cumulative total inflation and depreciation was now 65%.

The indiscreet extensions of hypothecated and rehypothecated credit, speculative investments, and issuance of fractional reserve paper enervated trade and caused the economic collapse known as the Great Depression. Under the Federal Reserve fractional reserve system about 600 banks per year failed from 1920 through 1929. The number of bank failures escalated to 1,345 in 1930, and to 2,298 in 1931. The number dropped to 1,453 in 1932, but skyrocketed to 4,000 in 1933. It is necessary to remember that the fractional reserve system paper was on a "float", however, the dollar was still made of gold and silver, and both the "Federal Reserve notes" and the "Treasury notes" clearly stated on their face that they were redeemable at par value upon presentment and demand.

Today, "Federal Reserve notes" are officially recognized as "SDR's" -- Special Drawing Rights under the amended Bretton Wood Agreements Act, Public Law 94-564. [See: Legislative History, Senate Report No. 94-1148, October 1, 1976] Quoting from the Legislative History, to wit:

"The dissolution of the monetary system created by the Bretton Woods Agreements can be traced to the early 1960's. The monetary system during this time made a de facto transition from a "gold standard" to a dollar standard . . . There were more dollars abroad than the U.S. had gold. The U.S. commitment to redeem international dollars for gold became a physical impossibility. The reality of dollar convertibility ended."

From the foregoing it can be seen that a "De Facto Transition" had occurred. In other words, de facto government operating under and according to the rule of necessity - no law.
Preceding the de facto transition, a number of other things had occurred. Pursuant to 22 USC 286, the President was authorized to accept membership for the United States in the International Monetary Fund ("The Fund"), and in the International Bank For Reconstruction and Development ("The Bank"), provided for by the "Articles of Agreement of the Fund" and the "Articles of Agreement of the Bank", as set forth in the "Final Act of the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference" dated July 22, 1944, which are deposited in the archives of the Department of State. These Acts are commonly known as the Bretton Woods Agreements. They are international agreements. The Articles of Agreement assert that those holding public office could do not only what the delegated powers under the Constitution did not authorize, but what they forbid. In other words, Congress created these two entities and granted them the capacity to do what they were prohibited from doing directly. The complete debasement of the Constitutional Coin was effected and accomplished under the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Articles of Agreement.

Pursuant to 22 USC 286a, the President appoints the alien, corporate "Governor" to oversee the United States membership in "The Fund" and "The Bank". He is today commonly referred to as the "Secretary of Treasury." The Office of Secretary of Treasury was formerly, that is, prior to May 20, 1920, a cabinet level position in the Executive Branch. That is not now the case because the "Treasury" was abolished in 1920-21. This occurred following the unconstitutional and unlawful redelegation of authorized powers of Congress under the Federal Reserve Act in 1913, out of which there was created an "independent treasury" on May 20, 1920, in which the People's money was commingled. Thereafter the gold was systematically, and criminally, removed and transferred out of the country, eventually causing a "run" on the banks, and ultimately, the Emergency Banking Relief Act of March 9, 1933, 48 Stat. 1. War and Emergency Powers had worked in 1862, and again in 1933, to expand unauthorized power beyond Constitutional and statutory limitations and prohibitions. Like the economic emergency itself, the emergency executive power is still active and available to further the "systematic scheme".

On March 18, 1968, Congress passed "An Act to Eliminate the reserve requirements for Federal Reserve Notes and for United States Notes and Treasury Notes of 1890", Public Law 90-269, 82 Stat. 50. This Act was designed to remove the remaining reserve requirements on circulating notes and obligations. $1.3 billion in gold was "pledged" against "gold certificates" and held as reserves against circulating notes and obligations. Under this Act the gold certificates would be withdrawn and retired, then the gold would be considered as "free gold" and paid out to foreign interests at $35 per ounce. The monetary reserves of gold and gold certificates would be supplemented and then replaced "by the mechanism of special drawing rights (SDR's) within the framework of the IMF" [See: House Report 1095, pg. 1763] It was also known, at that time, that the continued expansion of circulating Federal Reserve Notes would use up the "free gold" in two years, however, the "new standards of international reserves and exchange" was right around the corner [See: House Report 1095, pg. 1780] The Federal Reserve Note, thereafter, met all of the qualifications of a worthless security under 26 I.R.C. 165(g). The action of disavowing and repudiating obligations in 1968, like those that occurred in 1933 and 1934, were given effect and compulsion. The system had become nothing more nor less than a "confidence game" devised to psychologically dupe the public who were left generally ignorant of the activities and known affects.

On June 19, 1968, only three months later, Congress passed the "Special Drawing Rights Act", Public Law 90-349, 82 Stat. 188. This Act amended the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. Under Section 2 of the Special Drawing Rights Act, the SDR's are "administered as part of the Exchange Stabilization Fund established by section 10 of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, as amended (31 USC 822a)." The operations of the Exchange Stabilization Fund and now the SDR's are under the "exclusive control of the Secretary of Treasury" and "are not reviewable by any other officer of the United States". Anything in the ESF remains in the Fund, for the use of the Fund. This new program is subject to the Articles of Agreement of the IMF in accordance with Section 3 of the SDR Act of 1968. Of course, the "Secretary of Treasury" is, in reality, the "Governor" of the IMF, and is not an officer of the United States. [See: Public Law 94-564, 90 Stat. 2660, Senate Report 94-1148, pg. 5942; 22 USC 286a]

Section 4 of the Special Drawing Rights Act sets forth the general protocols. The "Secretary of Treasury" [Governor-IMF] issues an international letter of credit called a "Special Drawing Rights Certificate" to the Federal Reserve Banks "in such form and in such denomination as he may determine". The SDR is deposited in the Federal Reserve Banks which in turn credits the account of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) with Federal Reserve Notes in an amount equal to the value of the SDR certificate. SDR's became the "collateral security for Federal Reserve Notes". The term "dollar" was thereafter valued in direct and inseparable proportion to Special Drawing Rights, not to "dollars", gold and silver Coin. The "dollar" became mere "book entries in special accounts of the International Monetary Fund" under the United Nations. [See: Senate Report 1164, pg. 2105] In effect, the International Agreements had taken precedent over domestic limitations and obligations pursuant to the authority delegated by "We the People" in the ordained and established Constitution for the United States of America. The international organizations had gained economic control of the domestic monetary system, and would now make political decisions for the members. In common parlance, the Nation has been economically "overthrown" and bankrupted. Under "rule of instrumentality" the "United States" exists in pretense of name only, being the altered of the true principal and parties of interest, The Fund and The Bank. With the enactment by Congress of Public Law 95-147 on October 28, 1977, all financial institutions, banks and credit unions alike, were placed on the exclusive direction and control of the "Governor" of "The Fund" and "The Bank", i.e., the United Nations, which is the World Communist Movement. A foreign power now roosts and rules exclusively over each and every American. Recall that the operations of the Exchange Stabilization Fund and now the SDR's are under the "exclusive control of the Secretary of Treasury" and "are not reviewable by any other officer of the United States".

Me thinks your chicken is cooked unless this foreign entanglement and power is thrown off of our body politic.

May I interest you in a "home equity loan" from your "local" banker? How about a 30 year MORTgage? Or, a checking account to keep track of your SDR's? These banks with names like "KEY", "WELLS FARGO", "SEATTLE-FIRST", "WASHINGTON MUTUAL SAVINGS BANK" -- they just don't seem to be what they appear . . . do they?

Would you like to have some real money? Go look up 31 USC 5112 and the current pocket part, and then go talk with your local Coin shop dealer. You'll want to trade the worthless paper for American Gold Eagles and American Silver Eagles that have intrinsic as well as numismatic value and are a legal tender at their "buying sight rate" of exchange on the day of tender. You can thank the very Honorable Philip M. Crane of Illinois, who gave you the "American Gold Eagle Coin Act of 1985" [Public Law 99-185], and the "Liberty Coin Act" of the same year [Public Law 99-61] that you have the opportunity to now own real money.

Now you should have some idea what a dollar isn't: Federal Reserve Notes are not "dollars". Now you know "why" it is necessary that the U.S.A. get out of the United Nations!

Permission to repost granted with full disclosure/credits.
-/s/ John R. Prukop

"All laws which are repugnant to the Constitution are null and void."

--Marbury v. Madison,
5 U.S. (2 Cranch) 137 (1803)

CCW Coalition: Citizens For A Constitutional Washington
John R. Prukop, Executive Director
11910-C Meridian Ave. E., #142
Puyallup, Washington 98373
TEL: (253) 840-8071
FAX: (253) 840-8074
e-mail: ccw@frugal.com
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Black Blade

(04/01/2003; 21:27:45 MDT - Msg ID: 100733)

Fannie's Big Rate Bet Isn't Paying Off

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/detox/10077595.html
Snippit:

Fannie Mae's (FNM) net worth actually dropped in 2002 despite the firm's massive leverage, according to a closely watched balance sheet measure that portrays an alarming drop in shareholder wealth. Fannie's regular balance sheet, released quarterly, had already shown a massive decline throughout 2002 in shareholders' equity -- or assets minus liabilities -- as Fannie failed to financially insure itself against interest rate risk. But the company's supporters had hoped that a special version of its balance sheet, released yearly in its annual financial statement and designed to offer a more accurate portrayal of asset and liability values, would present a healthier picture. That didn't happen. This so-called fair-value balance sheet, released in a filing Monday, showed that the wealth left over for shareholders actually declined in 2002, falling 2% from the prior year to $22.1 billion. And if Fannie hadn't sneakily included a new asset called mortgage purchase commitments in the fair value balance sheet, shareholders' equity would've fallen far more steeply -- dropping some 12% to $20.5 billion. Clearly, if Fannie were the hedge fund its critics claim it to be, its managers would be looking for a job Monday after shortchanging shareholders so sharply.

Black Blade: No wonder a few months ago the Fed and the government is distancing itself from Fannie Mae by stating that investors should not consider this investment safe "government guaranteed" paper. Hmmm�

Black Blade

(04/01/2003; 21:36:21 MDT - Msg ID: 100736)

GM, Chrysler Offer New Sales Incentives

http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AUTO_INCENTIVES?SITE=TXDAM&TEMPLATE=BUSINESS.html
Snippit:

DETROIT (AP) -- DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group has followed General Motors Corp. in beefing up its incentives as automakers try to lure buyers at a time when consumer confidence is lagging. The sweetened deals come as sales have slumped in North America and the major automakers have scaled back production plans. Like GM, Chrysler said Tuesday it is offering zero-percent financing for five years on several vehicles, including the popular PT Cruiser. The German-American automaker on Tuesday also increased cash rebates on certain vehicles to as much as $4,500. The offers are good through April 30. GM, the world's No. 1 automaker, said Monday it was offering interest-free financing for up to five years on nearly every vehicle except the Hummer. GM's "Zero to Sixty" offer began Tuesday and runs through April. GM also is offering cash rebates of up to $3,000 on most models.

Black Blade: Desperate times call for desperate measures. Some economists are speculating that some automakers won't survive the "economic slump". At the top of the list is Ford. These rebates and other incentives eat into the bottom line. Simply put they have no pricing power, are smothering under massive debt, and are cutting costs by reducing production and laying off workers. Even so the consumer is tapped out. In a word � "Grim".

Mr Gresham

(04/01/2003; 22:04:15 MDT - Msg ID: 100739)

Lady Waverider, R Powell

Fair Lady, hear hear! Or, as my first grader (and her friends) would cuttingly sum up the whole matter: "Bo-o-o-o-o-r-r-r-r-RING!"

R Powell -- Don't have a WEC, but I'd started thinking on making such a search. Think they're collectors' items by now? (BTW, last week I met a frizzy-haired peace-lovin' radical leftie couple sportin' a fine collection of Silver Eagles. Think there's more of 'em? P.S. I left them in that state, and didn't try to turn them on to the hard stuff...)

Sundeck

(04/01/2003; 22:09:04 MDT - Msg ID: 100740)

Placer Dome Inc. cutting gold price hedging

Placer Dome Inc. cutting gold price hedging Snip:

"
VANCOUVER (CP) - Placer Dome Inc., Canada's second-largest gold producer behind Barrick, says it will reduce its future price-hedging by 20 per cent this year, taking advantage of the precious metal's soaring spot price.

"Placer Dome expects to reduce its committed (hedging) ounces to below 10 million by Dec. 31," the company said Tuesday in a release. The firm reduced the committed ounces under its hedge program by 1.1 million during the first quarter.

Placer Dome had said in February it planned to cut its hedging program, which sets the future price and can benefit a producer when gold prices are declining or flat.

During the first quarter, the company converted 920,000 hedged ounces of gold committed for 2004 to 2006 to put options at a cost of $9.4 million US. An additional 170,000 ounces were delivering into existing contracts.

As of March 31, Placer Dome's maximum committed ounces totalled 11.5 million, or 22 per cent of gold reserves at an average price of $380 US an ounce.
..."

Sundeck: An "average" committed price of $380 per ounce and still they are reducing hedges. Clearly they expect a bit more upside in the POG.

Sundeck

(04/01/2003; 22:11:40 MDT - Msg ID: 100741)

Placer link

http://www.canada.com/news/story.asp?id=6D0A53AD-696A-46B8-A89A-EE0B8BF64F4BOops ... here is the link

Daniel Druff

(04/01/2003; 22:26:36 MDT - Msg ID: 100742)

DoubleEagle

Nevada Assembly Bill 532Any challenge to The Federal Reserve System has to be good, imho.

And I'm especially happy to report that MIDAS has done a good job in mentioning this incredible news in his Appendix tonight.

DD

mikal

(04/01/2003; 22:27:26 MDT - Msg ID: 100743)

@Waverider

Good to hear you.

TownCrier

(04/01/2003; 23:46:31 MDT - Msg ID: 100744)

From Russia with(out) love...

http://www.interfax.ru/show_one_news.html?lang=EN&tz=0&tz_format=MSK&id_news=5629477HEADLINE: CB currency policy will not receive high publicity

MOSCOW. April 1 (Interfax) -

...Asked why the Central Bank stopped intervening on the currency market on Tuesday and let the ruble gain 6 kopecks, [Deputy Chairman Konstantin] Korischenko repeated Lenin's words "Yesterday was early, tomorrow will be late."

-----(see url)----

I announced this change in Russian CB policy in a post several days ago -- letting the ruble gain without intervention. In other words, the CB is putting the curbs on its endless absorption of dollars as reserves for ruble emission.

R.

Sundeck

(04/01/2003; 23:52:20 MDT - Msg ID: 100745)

American unilateralism over bank capital rules is upsetting Europeans

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1670284Snip:

"
FOR the past five years, the world's financial regulators have been working on a new set of rules for bank capital, called Basel 2. The idea is to ensure that banks' capital matches the risks they carry: the riskier their loan books, the more capital they should hold. The rules are not due to be applied until January 2007, but if that deadline is to be met, Basel 2 must be practically set in stone by this May.

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which is drawing up the rules, is pleased with the results of its third (and supposedly last) impact study. The study suggests that the complex new risk weightings to be applied to different types of asset will produce appropriate levels of capital for most of the world's banks.

Getting this far has taken a lot of sweat and horse-trading. American bankers and regulators have been at the forefront. American financial institutions have debated the rule changes as keenly as anybody. And Bill McDonough, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has cracked the whip as chairman of the Basel committee.

Imagine, therefore, the consternation of other committee members on learning how America plans to treat the new rulebook. Some American bankers and legislators are arguing that the proposed capital charge for operational risk�a fundamental part of Basel 2�needs to be completely rethought. Worse, American regulators intend to apply the new rules to fewer than a dozen of their banks. At a congressional hearing last month, they made it clear that the thousands of other American banks would continue to use the less complex existing rulebook, Basel 1. In fact, Basel 1 is little different from the lowest of Basel 2's three grades of sophistication. Nevertheless, the regulators believe that even this slight change would be a waste of money for America's smaller banks.
...."

Sundeck: Could this represent a change of heart at the 11th hour, reflecting concern about the capital adequacy of American banks going forward?

Derivative exposure?

Deflation potentially eroding carrying value of assets as in Japan?

Usul

(04/01/2003; 23:55:01 MDT - Msg ID: 100746)

Assembly Bill No. 532

They think they can act against the interests of the Federal Reserve? That one gave me a good laugh.

TownCrier

(04/02/2003; 00:01:08 MDT - Msg ID: 100747)

HEADLINE: Russian-Chinese economic relations gaining momentum

http://www.interfax.ru/show_one_news.html?lang=EN&tz=0&tz_format=MSK&id_news=5629500BEIJING. April 2 (Interfax-China) - Economic relations between Russia and China are growing rapidly, a Russian diplomat has said.

...Russian exports to China had grown 27% and Russian imports had swelled 66%.

...the volume of Russian-Chinese trade reflected the resources and needs of both countries.

Russia and China are considering large oil and gas projects, including "plans for the construction of the Russia-China oil pipeline, and delivering up to 30 million tonnes of oil a year in it, and a gas pipeline from eastern Siberia to the northeast of [North Korea], and to consumers in third countries."

-----(see url for text)-----

Gee, when you see this it almost begs the question why isn't the Russian Central Bank still rabidly accumulating dollars (see prior post) with which to make settlement on its swelling imports from China? Could it be that China also has already reached their fill of this sort of greenish reserve asset?

It's been a nice free ride for the dollar while it lasted. (de Gualle would surely be amazed at the resilience of the coasting momentum.) The payback will probably be hell, though.

R.

Black Blade

(04/02/2003; 00:10:58 MDT - Msg ID: 100748)

"Barbarous Relic Files" - Investors seek security in jewellery

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2896425.stm
Snippit:

Gold is often regarded as a safe haven in times of investment turmoil and there have been huge swings in the price of the precious metal during the build up to war in Iraq. The gold price has varied by more than $60 an ounce - or about 20% - in recent weeks.

"It's the only currency which is not issued by any individual government so it is internationally anonymous, internationally portable," said Rhona O'Connell from the World Gold Council. "People who live in politically risky countries or war-torn countries... know that if they need to flee in times of crisis, gold is probably the most safe thing that they can take with them because it's the most readily acceptable form of currency in another part of the world," she said. "The vast majority of physical purchasing interest is concentrated from the Middle East right the way through to the Far East in terms of people who buy on a daily basis," Ms O'Connell said. Buyers in first world countries purchase mostly small investment bars or coins. But jewellery is more popular in places like India and the Far East. Ms O'Connell said it is important to remember the jewellery purchased in these regions is high grade.

Black Blade: Over the next couple of months is the peak of "Wedding Season" in India. No one would think of marriage in India without gold as a gift.

TownCrier

(04/02/2003; 00:14:01 MDT - Msg ID: 100749)

Hurdles falling for China's gold market

http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/news/cb/2003-04-02/110542.html(April 02,2003 )(China Daily) -- The abolition of barriers affecting gold purchases and gold product processing and distribution on Monday has been hailed as a significant step by the government to liberalize the domestic gold market, following the establishment of the Shanghai Gold Exchange last year.

...The People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, on Monday announced that companies interested in purchasing, processing, wholesaling and retailing gold would no longer need approval from the official body.

Many processors and dealers are hoping to become members of the gold exchange, which was set up last November ... Currently, the gold exchange has 108 members limited to spot transactions.

-------(see url for text)-----

Gold market gains additional footing in China. This has been a reform priority. Can you imagine why? I knew that you could.

R.

Black Blade

(04/02/2003; 00:18:56 MDT - Msg ID: 100750)

"Barbarous Relic Files" - Gold smuggling hits Ethiopia

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2888777.stm
Snippit:

Local gold diggers often sell on the black market. Ethiopia's drought-hit economy is losing $30m (�19m) a year from gold smuggling, its government believes. Up to 3 million grammes are leaving the country every year, according to Khasu Tadesse, head of the Mines Ministry's project co-ordination department. Local diggers throughout Ethiopia are selling on the black market to traders from neighbouring Sudan, Kenya and Somalia, he said.

Black Blade: Sure is a lot of effort expended for a "barbarous relic". Hmmm�

Topaz

(04/02/2003; 03:46:05 MDT - Msg ID: 100751)

Bonds and Gold.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Ctnxy%2Cfvxy%2Cgcj3.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=7&go.y=11Again we saw a Dollar weakening to coincide with Q1 reporting ( Dow life support...albeit a more tentative effort than Q2/Q4 '02)...and judging by the Gold price, $ is now again in the ascendancy.
$/E parity @ 320 Gold or 4.65% Long Bond Yield (epic Triple Bottom) time will tell.
Short T's (the haunt of the Fed) have all but called a rate-cut...but Mr G stays mum, won't be for long though imo.

Belgian

(04/02/2003; 07:32:59 MDT - Msg ID: 100752)

Ten years back....

In 1993 we had a POG low of 327$, together with an �(ecu)/$ exchange rate at 1,07-1,10.
Both figures, 327$ and 1,07 are exactly the same as today, 10 years later.
From these two bottoms in 1993, POG ran to 390$-412$ and �/$ ran from 1,7 to 1,30-1,45 !

The main difference between today and 10 years ago is :
W've broken two, ten years, declining resistance lines in �/$ exch. rate and POG !

POG=327$ and �/$=1,07 are two significant supports for the rising patterns of Gold and euro. (idem for POO=25$)

My FWIW technical interpretation of those 3 analog (POG/�-$/POO) 10 years chart-patterns : The 10 year general down-pattern has been broken and strongly suggests that this break is corresponding with the first bear-leg of the stockmarkets. Whatever the rebound (technical) of of the stockmarket and the retreat of POG/�-$/POO, might be...the original rising patterns of POG/�/POO might probably resume, later on...corresponding with the second bear leg of the stockmarkets, to complete the gigantic ABC down-pattern ending in a stock-crash-melt down ? Analog with the huge ABC down pattern for the dollar-index (NDX) from its ATH of 1985 (now already in leg C down). Or the final crash of the dollar-reserve, finally initiating hyper-price-inflation.

IMVVVHO, the major moves are intact, despite the possible misleading zig-zag ups. NIA !!!

As K. Richebacher keeps on repeating : There are NO profits anymore (3% of GDP and still declining). That's why those IRs must decline also to avoid a total collapse of investment in overvalued stocks with declining profit-base.
Rising IRs for debt-paper, percepted as carrying less risk than stocks, will take confetti out of stocks that cannot manage to have as high profits as bonds. So far we haven't broken the 10 year declining patterns in IRs (bondprices-rise) from there 1994 hiccup-highs (corresponding with last POG-high of 412$).

My conclusion : As soon as the down-trend in IRs is broken...the dollar will crash. Today the European IR on money deposits declined 0,25% to 1,75%.
The financial masters will probably wait to rise IRs when they can, succesfully, sell the perception that everything is turning around for the better. This must probably coincide with a (false)(temporary) succes story of the Iraq-ME, affair ???

FWIW !!!

mikal

(04/02/2003; 07:47:06 MDT - Msg ID: 100753)

@Belgium

The FED has room to lower rates, and today bonds are lower in part to expectations of an intra-meeting rate cut. And they could cut, citing worse than expected economic data and war-damaged sentiment. Even the SARS virus. Then of course, they are committed to "reflate" against deflation, especially with stratospheric debt and derivatives everywhere and stuffed in closets.
This makes the dollar bear trend more enthusiastic. Only PM's would seem to tame him now.

mikal

(04/02/2003; 07:55:38 MDT - Msg ID: 100754)

Caveats

http://money.cnn.com/2003/04/02/markets/opener/index.htmThe market's mood changes
Hopes that war will be short reemerge Wednesday, giving stocks a boost.
April 2, 2003: 8:43 AM EST
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Staff Writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -Excerpts:
"The question for traders now is whether this will be the final mood swing before the last shot gets fired. The memory of how stocks rallied in the run up to and first days of the war, only to fall when the war began to go less swimmingly than investors had first assumed, still stings.
Nor do traders have any real sense of what the war's aftermath will look like, since everything seems so dependent how the war proceeds. Will anger in the Arab world lead to fresh tensions, and threaten new conflicts? Will the economy, which appears on the brink of recession, revive as businesses and consumers heave a collective "phew" when the war ends? Since those questions all seem absolutely unanswerable, Wall Street has been reduced to trading on however the war seems to be going. "I don't know that anyone is looing at the fundamentals," said Ruffat." �

21mabry

(04/02/2003; 08:55:12 MDT - Msg ID: 100755)

fed

Does the Fed really think it would help lowering rates? If they do they are fooling themselves.Anybody who has wanted to borrow has by now,banks and other lenders will not reduce their loan rates any more.All the fed will do is hurt fixed income investors,and drive more money from the U.S.

Old Yeller

(04/02/2003; 09:03:28 MDT - Msg ID: 100756)

It's the debt'stupid

http://www.levy.org/docs/stratan/stratpred.html
Trade and C/A deficits do matter.

What the government won't tell the people about the
real dangers the US and world economy face.

Gondolin

(04/02/2003; 09:34:44 MDT - Msg ID: 100757)

Belgian 100707

Thanks for your response. Your reasoning is spot on again. As usual each enlightenment I see herein poses further questions. As a recent lurker, having just dived headlong into the archives of ANOTHER on the forum, I can see I have a great deal of back catalogue reading to catch up on, which I think I shall immerse myself in to find a few answers to questions I have which occur during my daily visits to USAGOLD. Got gold and the more I read the better it feels.

Socrates964

(04/02/2003; 09:36:15 MDT - Msg ID: 100758)

Silvercollector

Just saw your post. Rather than write an essay on hyperinflationary dynamics, let me just say this:

Asset returns under inflation is a bit like the behavior of mass/time in the special theory of relativity - the distortions only become substantial at very high speeds/rates of change of price.

The US has enjoyed low inflation for years since, as one writer put it (Can't remember who) - The world trade system essentially consists of the US producing dollars and the rest of the world producing things). Now, if these dollars are no longer accepted at face value there is a sea-change and the $ becomes different only in degree (rather than nature) from the pesos, roubles, lira, cruzeiros of this world.

The $ then crashes to earth in the sense that it is no longer painless to print up the stuff ad infinitum - the international markets take note and mark down the exchange rate accordingly.

For a government in a corner, however, this is not necessarily a bad thing since nothing kills outstanding debt like inflation. Since most US voters are debtors, it has always seemed blindingly obvious to me that when push comes to shove, the US will opt for inflation rather than deflation.

In this sense, it may decide to default on its international debt - not by refusing to pay interest, but simply by inflating away. This puts the Chinese/Arabs/etc. of this world in a bind - they are going to get stiffed on their dollar holdings - so do they make a virtue of necessity and carpet bomb the US financial markets with US government debt in the hope they bring about regime change or give the US enough time to wriggle out of their predicament? In their shoes, I would take the view that Wall Street/the Fed is still prepared to put a great deal of effort into keeping up appearances, and would use this to sell down longer-dated bond futures (and maybe even buy a few bonds to stop the cash market from crashing) and then as the futures mature, just deliver the underlying and repeat this over and over again. It should be evident that this is a trigger for inflation in so far as the Fed will probably print more money to mop up this torrent of bonds since the alternative is to let interest rates spike at the long end and crucify anyone with long-term floating rate debt (e.g. real estate) - the political price of which still seems too high (although I may be proved wrong on this point if a consensus forms for 'regime change' in the US). I tend to take the view that the variable that will give is the dollar rather than the level of interest rates. Indeed, it is baffling to me why any non-US investor would want to hold US government bonds right now.

As per your question - inflation has not been a concern for the last 15 years or so. I think investors will have to worry about it going forward due to the above dynamics.

A key feature of hyperinflation is the divergence in relative prices (albeit cyclical) as everyone tries to beggar their neighbours. Taken to its extreme, there is no best investment - you just have to keep trading the fluctuations, so that it's bonds this week, gold the next, stocks the week after that, etc.

In this situation, it is best to define your own inflation index (based on the cost of your essential inputs) rather than depend on the government to do it for you.

In general terms, however, stocks become inflation proxies in so far as they can mark up their prices in line with inflation. The best proxies are usually companies supplying essential products manufactured from inputs priced in local currency and financials that don't do any lending but just play the markets, but the rule is that you have to trade everything.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/02/2003; 09:57:47 MDT - Msg ID: 100759)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. In your book, The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership you start the chapter by saying "Who you do business with is one of the most important aspects of gold investing." Why is that?

MK. Most, if not all, of the progress an investor makes towards realizing his or her goals with respect to gold ownership hinges on that relationship. Unbiased, objective advice from one's gold advisor is a key element. So are market information and education. Pricing, product selection, fulfillment and on-going support also rely on that relationship. Above all, it is extremely important for gold buyers to match their objectives with the type of gold they buy. Positive results in all of those areas depend upon a strong relationship with a gold firm. That is why it is important to spend some time finding the right one.

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

MK. The biggest trap investors fall into is buying a gold investment that bears little or no relationship to his or her objectives. Take safe haven investors for example. That group makes up 90% of our clientele, and probably a good 75% of the current physical gold market. Most often the safe-haven investors simply want to add gold coins to their portfolio mix, but by the time they finish talking with a typical national firm, they might end up in a leveraged gold position, exotic rare coins, or being diverted into silver or platinum. Others drift into gold stocks or gold futures which in reality are proxies for real gold ownership and could actually act opposite the intent of the investor. There's nothing wrong with any of these non-physical investments per se, it's just that none of them is really a safe-haven. The investor should bear this in mind. The question investors must always answer for themselves is "How will this investment serve me should the economy or financial markets suffer a major disruption?"

Leigh

(04/02/2003; 10:54:14 MDT - Msg ID: 100760)

War Profiteers

http://www.thelibertycommittee.orgJust received this e-mail from The Liberty Committee.

April 2, 2003

Wars cost money. The president wants $62,409 billion for military activities in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom." That amount is part of the so-called "Wartime Supplemental" bill that is being hastily put together so that it can be voted on sometime tomorrow.

But the total funds in the bill have already risen to $74.7 billion. With every passing hour, it seems that some new spending that bilks taxpayers and has nothing to do with the war is being added.

No one in political life wants to be called unpatriotic, particularly during times of war. What can you do when your elected representatives take advantage of America being at war to add on unrelated spending that:
1. The president won't veto because he urgently needs to pay for the war;
2. congressmen won't vote against, for fear of being called unpatriotic;
3. the media won't report, so few people will know about; and
4. that taxpayers can't do anything about anyway?

And just to seal the deal, they want to throw in a multi-million dollar payoff as hush money to the House of Representatives.

These are patriots? In times gone by, mercanaries who did a lot less than this to take advantage of war would have been considered "war profiteers" and would have been taken out and hanged. How refreshing.

Now, billions of dollars to expend unrelated governmental programs and special-interest payoffs will help re-elect these same types of scountdrels masquerading as modern-day members of Congress.

What's in this bill outside the president's request for $62,409 billion to fund the war? Plenty. Here are some examples:

1. $3.2 billion for an airline bailout.
2. $250 million for Department of Agriculture grants.
3. $69 million for Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust.
4. $11 million for salaries and expenses for the House of Representatives (they already gave themselves a pay raise).
5. $5.5 million for the Library of Congress.
6. $6.8 million for the Congressional Research Service and General Accounting Office.
7. $16 million to research Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
6. $100,000 for the U.S. Court of International Trade.
7. $165 million for the Afghanistan Freedom Support Act.

The bill also includes $8 billion in foreign aid:
1. $700 million in "economic assistance" for Jordan;
2. $500 million in "economic assistance" for Egypt;
3. $1 billion in "economic assistance" for Turkey;
4. $127 million for "economic growth" in Afghanistan;
5. $1 billion in "military assistance" for Israel;
6. $175 million in "military assistance" for Pakistan;
7. $170 million to "train the Afghan National Army;"
8. $406 million for Jordan...and the list goes on.

How can they get away with this? Because the drum beat has already started. Who would have the courage to vote against all this unrelated spending when that "No" vote will be turned against them as a refusal to support our troops at war?

It's up to you. The politicians are up to their same old tricks, this time taking advantage of Americans whose lives are in jeopardy on the battlefield. A clean bill to fund the president's request in support of the war could be submitted and approved, but the politicians can't pass an opportunity to put their hands in our pockets.

Please contact your congressional delegation to help give them the courage to do the right thing. Go to
http://capwiz.com/liberty/issues/alert/alertid=1827421&type=CO

Kent Snyder
The Liberty Committee

Daniel Druff

(04/02/2003; 11:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 100761)

Aristotle

With thanks to Old Yeller for the Levy article"CONCLUSION

This note has identified a major strategic predicament for the U.S economy. The most likely consequences of the massive and growing leak out of the circular flow of income will be, given present national and international policies, that there will be no proper recovery from the recent recession; and that this stagnation will eventually have grave consequences for the rest of the world, which has come to look to the U.S to give it momentum. A number of solutions have been outlined, but none of them can be relied on and some of them carry serious disadvantages. At some stage it will have to be recognised that a new world solution must be found." Wynne Godley, Levy Economics Institute

Note: "...a new world solution must be found."

At some point, in the not too distant future, our financial managers must realize that The Federal Reserve System and all other fiat originating central banks must be deposited into the wastebin of bad ideas. A monetary system using Fiat for credit, but obviously not as a store of value, would facilitate responsible citizenship rather than credit induced spending sprees leading to all sorts of excesses.

DD

balzac

(04/02/2003; 11:13:15 MDT - Msg ID: 100762)

BLOOMBERG LETS US DOWN

This AM Bloomberg changed their web page and omitted gold from the commodities. Plus a lot of detail that I needed.
Any suggestions on another web page that gives everything plus gold???

Thanks Balzac

(04/02/2003; 11:31:08 MDT - Msg ID: 100763)

DD: "There but for the grace of God, goes God."

You may be interested to know that some in the central bank community are still not convinced that the modern central bank carries any advantages over the concept of a currency board on the monetary side with a balanced budget amendment on the fiscal side. Paul Volker, for one, comes to mind, and I wonder where Greenspan would come down on the issue if push came to shove. I suppose it would depend upon if you were address Alan Greenspan, the central banker, or Alan Greenspan, the economic philosopher. I don't think we have to re-invent the wheel to achieve something workable. ANew Bretton Woods, for example, is unnecessary in my mind (much like going to the UN to ask permission to carry out US foreign policy). Ultimately you get bogged down in special interests, the system created is full of leaks, and ultimately it's doomed to failure. For the United States, I would rather seem something constructive done with our own system and then go from there. I saw in the Financial Times this morning that some in the international economic community believe that an economic conference of the G7 (or G8) would be beneficial given the highly stressed world economy. Allusions were made to the 'common interest', 'common problems', 'common ground.' Under the circumstances, and given the the strains between Europe, the United States and Asia, such a meeting might be about as productive as our last noteworthy go-around at the UN. Though the need is pressing, this many not be the best time for this sort of thing.

Reading Yergin's "The Commanding Heights" for more background (history) on this issue as I, like you, and many others sense a need. Great quote from Winston Churchill at the beginning of that book with reference to Sir Stafford Cripps who headed up nationalized British industries after World War II:

"There," said Churchill, "but for the grace of God, goes God."

That about sums up where you end when you economic policy is changed in times like these -- the tilt inexorably is to the left, central planning, et al. It's in our best interest to avoid international economic arrangements at this time, I would think.

Aristotle

(04/02/2003; 11:37:28 MDT - Msg ID: 100764)

Bravo, Daniel!

"...A monetary system using Fiat for credit, but obviously not as a store of value, would facilitate responsible citizenship..."

That's a great start!!!!!! Better still, I think we can get there fairly easily from here if we're willing to take the direct route. But, if you (we) wanna let ourselves be distracted and try to tear down or abolish the Federal Reserve as part of the course to gettin there, we'll all be hopelessly tied up in red tape. I think if you try to get to the root of the problem, you'll find it isn't the Fed as an institution, but rather it's paperGold, that is, derivatives. Yes? No?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Daniel Druff

(04/02/2003; 11:40:43 MDT - Msg ID: 100765)

Usul

Don't Give Up(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Usul (04/01/03; 23:55:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 100746)
Assembly Bill No. 532
They think they can act against the interests of the Federal Reserve? That one gave me a good laugh.
******************************************************

The Fed has got to go...but it won't go quietly. And The Freedom Fighters of Nevada will go down as The Point of the Sword in some of our efforts to improve our economic system.

To the authors and supporters of AB 532, I say, all freedom loving people around the world salute you!

If you will only maintain the demeanor of the soft-spoken and polite grandfather, maybe the kids will listen to you.

DD

Daniel Druff

(04/02/2003; 12:05:06 MDT - Msg ID: 100766)

All citizens have the right to make suggestions here and there...especially in the States. The timing for implementation of a theory will never be "the right time" as far as the ongoing establishment is concerned. If that's what you're saying, in part, I certainly agree.

MK, many of us here are not revolutionaries but we are amature theorists. If you could help us see things as they presently exist, our direction would improve. The first thing we need, imo, is a refresher course on "Seniorage" (spelling deficiency, sorry): What it means and how it works...I think it was Randy who put forth an excellent presentation...but I can't find it. Maybe it was not Randy, maybe you wrote it.

DD

Usul

(04/02/2003; 12:08:08 MDT - Msg ID: 100767)

@Daniel Druff

I fear that it will only be after wholesale economic ruin that a new gold standard will have been established, perhaps "free gold", and then people will look back in history and say "Bravo to those Nevada pioneers; would that the principles of AB532 had been widely adopted before it was too late".

In history, events like the South Sea Bubble, the John Law episode, the Weimar inflation, Argentina's recent banking crisis, show us that economies are often allowed to run to the limit and collapse before appropriate remedial action is taken.

J-Bullion

(04/02/2003; 14:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 100768)

Bloomberg drops Gold

Bloomberg dropped Gold from the commodities section, because they realize that Gold and Silver are money. LOL.

Daniel Druff

(04/02/2003; 14:16:43 MDT - Msg ID: 100769)

Aristotle

"I think if you try to get to the root of the problem, you'll find it isn't the Fed as an institution, but rather it's paperGold, that is, derivatives. Yes? No?" Aristotle

Yes, if by that you agree that derivatives, paperGold, or any instrument, which demands the guarantee of a human being to achieve its value, is actually counterfeit money. The Fed is the institution who controls the printing presses...they are a professional and legal counterfeiting outfit. They are simply doing their thing, as the kids would say. They inflate the money supply. And you know the rest of the story.

Wait until you see the hurdle of "seniorage" ahead of us.

*********************************************************
Usul (04/02/03; 12:08:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 100767)
@Daniel Druff

"...Bravo to those Nevada pioneers; would that the principles of AB532 had been widely adopted before it was too late". Usul
**********************************************************

Ari, will you join us in a cheer for The State of Nevada?

DD

Waverider

(04/02/2003; 14:20:33 MDT - Msg ID: 100770)

VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlSnip:
"The U.S. economy remains weak and the toughest battles for coalition forces lie ahead in the battle for Baghdad as the likelihood of chemical weapon use and urban street fighting increases as the forces inch toward the Iraqi capital. Yet the global equities markets surged on the belief that the end of the Saddam regime is near and all will be well soon and somehow the global economy will suddenly recover. All these events took attention away from the precious metals markets. Even so, no one is discussing how the bill will be paid when the war comes to a conclusion, an occupying army must remain in place to ensure security, and the ultimate costs of reconstruction. Meanwhile the U.S. current account deficit rises daily and everyone, government, corporations and consumers are mired under crushing debt. The question must be asked � is the U.S. dollar really that much stronger than other world currencies and what does that say about the other major currencies?

mikal

(04/02/2003; 14:23:53 MDT - Msg ID: 100771)

@J-Bullion

If this is a permanent move of Bloomberg's, it resembles the way television news is edited during wartime. Gold volatility in the future will be unsettling to certain viewers. Maybe they will edit out the layoffs too.
Rather than stomach the carnage and confront the stark reality, the socialist media will shelter us.
We can still change the channel can't we? With 200+ cable channels to choose from, we're more sophisticated than ever.

Aristotle

(04/02/2003; 14:47:29 MDT - Msg ID: 100772)

Daniel,

No cheer for the would-be Nevada lawmakers from me. That bill isn't much more than a passing novelty, and if they're taking it seriously, Scott Adams could have a field day with all those guys as new cast members for Dilbert.

I think somebody there is just placating a constituent or two by going through the motions. The only thing, if any, that'll pan out is something that even a souvenir shop would struggle to move out the door.

badda-BING!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Black Blade

(04/02/2003; 15:38:12 MDT - Msg ID: 100773)

Home foreclosures soar 38%

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/real_estate/article/0,1299,DRMN_414_1857528,00.html
Snippit:

Home foreclosures in the Denver area rose by 38 percent in the first quarter compared with the first three months of 2002. Public trustees in the metro area reported they have begun processing an estimated 1,974 foreclosures so far, compared with 1,433 in the first three months of 2002. It's a trend that has been growing with the bad economy. Last year, foreclosures accounted for about 1.1 percent of all the homes on the market, while in 1988 they accounted for about 3.8 percent.

Gary Bauer, a real estate broker and consultant, said he expected foreclosures to be even higher. "I would have thought they would have been 50 percent to 60 percent higher," Bauer said. "Given how bad the economy is and how many people are unemployed, I thought it would be up a lot more in the first quarter."

Black Blade: A disturbing trend that is felt in many regions of the US. That the deflation of the real estate bubble is now being discussed in the financial media such as CNBC it is now becoming more a public concern. It will get much worse as the economy continues to slip deeper into depression. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months� expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

Black Blade

(04/02/2003; 15:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 100774)

First blows hit US economy

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2907783.stm
Snippit:

The war on Iraq is already beginning to affect the health of the US economy, research shows. Economists have long warned that a protracted war is likely to have a significant impact on the global economy and the US in particular. But new research suggests that the US economy is already suffering just 13 days after war began.

Black Blade: The problems in the US economy have been evident for the last three years and will likely last several more years. The problem now is soaring debt and rising unemployment. It's going to get very ugly better it gets any better (if it does). The war is just the "add on" effect that pushes the US further in debt. But war is the latest fashionable excuse for the "economic downturn".

Black Blade

(04/02/2003; 15:58:32 MDT - Msg ID: 100775)

State bankruptcies jump 26%

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/business/article/0,1299,DRMN_4_1857529,00.html
Unemployment, credit-card debt fuel Q1 individual filings

Snippit:

Colorado bankruptcy filings rose 26 percent during the first quarter of the year, compared with the same period last year. The U.S. Bankruptcy Court here saw filings rise to 5,586 from 4,430. The big jump came among Chapter 7 liquidation filings, with new filings for Chapter 11 business reorganizations dropping from 31 to 15. "My practice is up 50 percent to 100 percent over a year ago, in the area of bankruptcies," said Denver attorney Glenn Merrick, of Brega & Winters PC.

Continued unemployment combined with high credit-card debt seem to be fueling the jump in filings by individuals. There may be another contributing factor, one bankruptcy lawyer said. Bankruptcy reform has been debated and proposed in Congress for several years, but the House of Representatives recently passed a bill that would affect the ability of consumers to file, said Bart Burnett, a partner at Pearson, Horowitz & Poskus in Denver.

Black Blade: Put the family home at risk and take out more equity, but wait, foreclosures are rising too. This is another disturbing trend nationwide. Take heart � Al and the boyz at the Fed say it's only a "soft patch". Hmmm�

steady

(04/02/2003; 16:00:38 MDT - Msg ID: 100776)

aristotle ......the bill>

like you i think that they are just going thru the motions. nothing will come of it except this... especially if it makes it out of committie friday, that a discussion will rise up, one that has probably been hashed over here a hundred times over, about the legality of the federal reserve. for a state legislature to consider a bill that says the fed is illegal and that the congress has failed in its role as the issuer of the currency\ money ( {property? } hahah just kidding). is significant as with the internet the number of individuals who can participate freely in the debate or follow the debate here silently increases the awarness about such a situation. does it matter if the system trys to take the fed on or not. no i dont think it does, as the fed is the system so the system cant beat it. but individuals taking the fed on by finding alternatives to the federal reserve note will, especially physical gold in posession will. like many small holes in there dams, there will just be to many golden leaks to prevent the resevour from being drained to empty. maybe this debate will lead into a debate about why silver? why not gold like we us to do? so maybe there goal is to plant the seed and let it germanate, and watch the debate begin.
unlike you i give them a standing ovationfor doing this. they are causing individuals like yourself and others to take a position on a monetary policy something the fed really doesnt do they just say here, this is what we are doing and if u dont like it to bad, heck they dont even face voter pressure like nevada legislatures will come next election.. can u imagine the phone calls to be made if the bill get out of committie? they are showing that hey yes there are alternatives available to the federal reserve note, we want our alternative to be silver.i allready know what camp you are in. im sure our international members of this form are watching. i wonder if they are silently sayng to themselvs hey u dont need silver we got the euro as your alternative to the federal reserve notes.
aristotle... i know, i know... gold get u sum while its still light for the price! :+)

steady

(04/02/2003; 16:09:04 MDT - Msg ID: 100777)

is nevada starting a new trend? when will it get to the county then local level.

http://www.bis.org/events/conf030328.htm are states who are seeing national interventions in markets and now with international co-operation (japan, usa) just following the trend established by the big boys? will counties be next? (jokingly)

Systematic Asset Market Intervention is Coming To a Central Bank Near You Very Soon
On March 28th The Bank for International Settlements in Basel Switzerland, the central bank for central banks all over the world held a conference titled: Conference on "Monetary stability, financial stability and the business cycle".

It as rather lengthy but can be found at http://www.bis.org/events/conf030328.htm for those interested. It is essentially devoted to the very discussion we have been having for quite some time. That is the relationship between monetary policy and the economic cycle. For those of you looking for a more in depth analysis of this than I have the time to get into on the air should read it. It is, for the most part, very easy reading.
The nature of the debate being had among monetary leaders all over the world is how to change the monetary model should it fail to stop the deflationary pressures building around the world AND facilitate an economic resurgence.
Roger Arnold

cont. @ link

Black Blade

(04/02/2003; 16:14:13 MDT - Msg ID: 100778)

Boston Fed's Minehan Says U.S. Economy has `Softened' in Recent Months

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/economy/fedwatch.html
Snippit:

Waltham, Massachusetts, March 31 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy is still struggling through a ``soft patch'' and the outlook for growth isn't clear, in large part because of the Iraq war, said Cathy Minehan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. ``The national situation remains uncertain,'' Minehan said in the text of remarks to the Associated Industries of Massachusetts and ACG Boston technology and economic outlook conference. ``Recent data have suggested that the `soft patch' that began in early 2003 remains,'' although she said many of the economic indicators in the first months of the year have been ``clouded'' by bad weather and ``geopolitical concerns'' -- the Fed's language for the war in Iraq.

Black Blade: "Soft Patch" eh? Looking at today's stock market you wouldn't know it. But trading volumes are not consistently high and are spotty at best. Even Goldman Sachs is firing more equities staff today. CNBC's Bob Pisani complains that when he calls contacts on Wall Street they are no longer there and have been replaced. It does not look like a temporary "soft patch" if even the pros are making such sweeping changes. The individual investor is sitting this one out. The economic data is horrible. Capital expenditures are just not happening and are not likely to happen either. Inventories are building and production will have to slow until sales pick up. There is no need to increase capex. "Soft Patch" is a gross understatement.

Off to the gym!

Black Blade

(04/02/2003; 16:28:58 MDT - Msg ID: 100779)

Understanding the States' Budget Crisis

http://www.stateline.org/story.do;jsessionid=m5z0n6z871?storyId=297097
Snippit:

One issue dominates U.S. state capitols these days, and it isn't the war with Iraq -- it's the gap between services expected of states and the constitutional requirement of every state but Vermont to balance the budget. In a five-part series of articles, Stateline.org looked at the issue in depth: What the governors are saying; who's affected; the impact on education; how states got in their present fix; and what they can do about it.

Black Blade: Articles on state budget crises (see link). This is spreading as fast as SARS. It really comes down to spending like drunken sailors on shore leave and not saving when times are good. Don't get into your own budget crisis, preserve wealth by accumulation of tangible secure assets like precious metals.

Kev

(04/02/2003; 17:04:59 MDT - Msg ID: 100780)

@ Belgian #100659 , Mr Gresham #100628 (the Gold of Belgium's Central Bank)

I was able to ask some questions about gold on the annual meeting on Monday. Since all questions of all shareholders (incl. interventions Deminor & lawyer Modrikamen) were brushed aside with an extremely high dose of arrogance and ivory tower attitude, I actually was thinking whether it was still useful to even try to ask the questions I prepared about gold. But I gave it a shot anyway after about five hours of the marathon meeting.

I kind of wrapped my first question in a story of unstable geo-political situation (war in Iraq etc.) and also something the former Governor of the BNB said in a television show about two years ago. I mentioned that in other countries (I referred to Switzerland) politicians were asking questions about the location of the country's national gold reserve. I told that in a television show in 2001 the former Governor of the BNB declared that he once was in New York where the gold (or at least a part of it) of Belgium and Germany was stored at the time. So I asked "Is part of the gold reserve of BNB still stored in the US?" and "Are there other countries where some of the gold reserve is stored?" The Governor actually � to my surprise � thought it was a nice question and started smiling and mumbling something. Then he said "Well, you actually give part of the answer yourself; who am I to contradict the former Governor" (i.e. viscount Mr Verplaetse). Than someone of the Directors confirmed that the greater part of BNB's gold is stored in the UK, while 'another' part in the US. I immediately replied by stating the/my conclusion "So none of the gold is stored in Belgium?" And I repeated that question two or three times because they were looking at me like "shit what have we told now". The Governor mumbled "Well, maybe 2 or 3 kilograms".

So that's great, right?! All of our (remaining) 258tons of gold is "safe" in the UK and US... ahum...

I immediately started to ask a question on gold loans and swaps. I already saw Mrs. � bulldog ("taisez-vous!" ; "shut up!") � Masai of the Board shaking her head and trying to say something to the Governor. But I continued reading my question while referring to exact pages of annual reports of other European central Banks that do give some figures (although not extensively) in their annual reports about loans/swaps. The Governor said that he didn't know that some other Central Banks gave those numbers, but that he would review it and possibly add it to the annual reports in the future.

I didn't want to push my luck any further so I said "thank you very much". I had lots of other questions of course (concerning loans/swaps, WA, etc.) but the atmosphere of the whole day was already very hostile and I thought I had already uncovered something valuable that I could use later. The Belgian press did not pick it up as important news of the day; moreover a journalist of the leading financial newspaper wrote that the oral questions (first there were dozens of written questions that had to be answered) didn't reveal any interesting or new information.

Kev.

Aristotle

(04/02/2003; 18:04:33 MDT - Msg ID: 100781)

Marketing slogan for the Moslem part of the world-- "The Gold Dinar: A Krugerrand to call our own."

Somebody was soliciting opinions about the Islamic Gold dinar a few days ago. That slogan suggestion pretty much sums up my opinion. It's basically a Krugerrand with a religious endorsement. Given the Moslem population base, that's a mighty endorsement -- not something to be taken lightly. But that alone doesn't make it money, brother.

"I owe you 5 dinars." Is that IOU Gold, or is it not Gold?

"My business owes your business 5 thousand dinars upon receipt of your goods on April 30th." Is it Gold, and what's its value if that IOU is sold as commercial paper in the interim to a cash-rich (or Gold-rich) third party?

"Our nation owes your nation 5 billion dinars." Oh boy....! What's a default worth?

A Gold dinar coin can be a nice piece of property. A dinar as a unit of account for delayed settlement gets us toward moneyness that will only lead to a dilution of Gold's full-bodied value. Why should we walk that path again after so many lessons from history?

Back to the slogan. I see the dinar some beautiful sunny day in the future as a piece of highly valued property, a form of savings or payment in full (like barter,) but I don't see it functioning as money. At least I sure hope not.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Mr Gresham

(04/02/2003; 18:08:30 MDT - Msg ID: 100782)

Kev

That's some pretty amazing work. Perhaps you should check in regularly here, so we can be sure you haven't been "swapped" off into deep storage?

Asking so many of our questions -- first-hand, -- and finding out these "leaders" don't know the basics. They're just showing up for work everyday, going through the motions. Who IS running the show?

OK, now what I would like for someone in Europe to do is to dig into the Euro's founding documents for some light on the A/FOA thesis -- 1) that the dollar was rescued after 1971 by a deal with oil for gold, and 2) that the European CBs saw the necessity of propping up the USD (and did so via gold leasing) until their new currency could slide into its place.

Special bonus to anyone who can find a US hand in the decision to go after Trichet.

Most of what we discuss here has passed into more common news (or at least gold) venues. But these questions are still fairly our unique province. Wouldn't it be fun to find someone who took Mundell's ideas, and elaborated on them in strategic terms? Someone who remains in the background of ECB decision-making, but certainly knows more than these guys you encountered.

21mabry

(04/02/2003; 19:59:17 MDT - Msg ID: 100783)

(No Subject)

I was watching Ari Fleicher press confrence today, a reporter asked about the future of Iraqs finances.The reporter wanted to know if the new regime would be responsible for Saddams debts,the reporter said it would be a lesson to banks and countries not to loan to dictatorships if all of saddams loans did not have to be repaid.Fleisher danced around the issue,but you know the powers that be will bleed Iraq white.

a nation of one

(04/02/2003; 20:24:29 MDT - Msg ID: 100784)

To Leigh (04/02/03; 10:54:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 100760)

Just the very concept of government is itself already a corruption.

Cometose

(04/02/2003; 20:25:19 MDT - Msg ID: 100785)

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF WAR

Interesting analysis with charts relating to GOLD/OIL relationship ..... and the Dollar .
CAPTAIN HOOK ....GOLDEN EAGLE editorial .

Black Blade

(04/02/2003; 21:13:42 MDT - Msg ID: 100786)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

You can throw rational thinking out the door. If you tried to explain the market's machinations since the summer of last year, you would need the services of a psychiatrist more than you would the services of an analyst. Investor horizons don't extend far beyond the latest news updates on the war.

One-day markets rise because of postponement of war; the next day they explode on the upside because of the outbreak of war. Markets then fall because the war is taking too long; the next week they rise because the war is going well. Economic news, earnings warnings, bankruptcies and accounting scandals have taken a back seat to the coverage of the war. In military terms, records are being set in terms of the U.S.� ability to advance so far so quickly. The problem is that with 24-hour news coverage, most of it is news filler. There are too many analysts and pundits making comments on every single fire fight, every little skirmish, each fatality, as well as forecasting the military's next move.

Markets respond to each news event emotionally, moving up on so-called good news and falling hard on bad news. Since last summer with the failure of monetary policy to stem a market decline, active intervention has become part of government policy. There is now an active effort to reflate the financial markets.

Black Blade: It sure appears that way. There is little relation to reality in this market. The economic data released by the government and non-government agencies is absolutely horrible and yet the markets jump and dive on abstract outside events like the war. This market is goofy. The US dollar is weakening and the other world currencies are also weakening in a race to see who can have the weaker currency. Japanese government intervention is just one self destructive mechanism employed by Japanese monetary authorities in a desperate bid to sell trinkets to a shrinking consumer base. Of course it is doomed to failure as they are only digging themselves into a deeper hole day by day. European and North American economies are crumbling under massive debt, rising unemployment and shrinking consumer markets. Yet the stock markets squeeze out temporary gains on non-related events. Even precious metals have come under pressure in spite of strong fundamentals, persistent physical demand and a long term upward trend. But then as I said, there is little relation to reality in this market.

Black Blade

(04/02/2003; 21:23:36 MDT - Msg ID: 100787)

More annual reports delayed

http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/regulation/2003-04-01-postpone_x.htm
Snippit:

Tough new regulations barring flawed financial reports have caused a record number of companies to warn they will be late in filing their annual reports. Goodyear, Gateway, Qwest Communications, Cummins and American Airlines parent AMR scrambled to meet Tuesday's deadline for requests with the Securities and Exchange Commission to postpone their annual 10-K filings. Companies have filed 2,171 requests for extensions on SEC filings, up 14% from the previous record in 2000, says 10Kwizard.com. Annual reports are due 90 days after the end of the fiscal year. For most companies, that deadline was Monday. The delays might unnerve investors who have seen the damage caused the past two years with revelations about bad accounting at companies such as Enron and WorldCom. "How could you not be uncomfortable?" says Marc Gerstein, market strategist at Multex.

Black Blade: There are a lot of little Enrons out there. We don't hear much about them now are other events have dominated the headlines. The high number of extension requests is not really surprising but is going unnoticed.

Black Blade

(04/02/2003; 21:53:29 MDT - Msg ID: 100788)

World Gold Council Looks Like Coming Third To Australia And China In Race To Develop Gold Investment Instrument.

http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2003/april-2003/wgc020403.htm
Snippit:

The listing of Gold Bullion Securities on the Australian Stock Exchange at the end of last week is an oddity. Its development is claimed to be a joint initiative between the World Gold Council and an Australian company called Gold Bullion Ltd. In fact there has been virtually no word from Chris Thompson's team since it took over last October, though CEO James Burton did manage to get a one liner in the press release announcing the listing of Gold Bullion Securities. The difference between Gold Bullion Securities and other forms of gold investment where value is based on a promise by a bank or other party to pay in gold is that each security will represent 1/10 troy ounces in the form of London Good Delivery bars, and can be redeemed for gold (through an approved dealer) or cash. No minimum trading amount is stipulated and the with monthly management fee to cover all corporate, storage and insurance changes is only 0.02 per cent. The physical gold will be insured and held in London vaults by the custodian bank HSBC Bank USA, and all receipts and payments of gold are �ring fenced� for optimum security.

This is an most important development in gold's evolution as an asset class. As the cult of equity dies investors are seeking wealth preservation amid a world of low interest rates and falling stock markets. It's easy enough to buy shares - about 50 per cent of Australians have their own portfolios of various sizes � but very few have ever traded a metal. Now gold has been securitised. A recent PricewaterhouseCooper's report by actuary Dr David Knox found that the introduction of gold bullion into an investment portfolio in the last five or ten years would have reduced the volatility of investment returns as it tends to be negatively correlated with other major asset classes such as shares, property and fixed income.

Newmont's Pierre Lassonde, cheerleader for the global gold industry, claimed some time ago that a 'gold equity' could create up to a 1000 tonnes of investment demand a year. The pace will have to quicken up a shade in Australia for this to happen as only 700 ounces of gold were bought in the first day of trading which is equivalent to 7,000 Gold Bullion Securities. However that is equivalent to nearly A$ 400,000 and it is bound to take a bit of time before this new form of investment is accepted.

Black Blade: I am not sure what to make of this. So you can buy "shares" of gold stored somewhere (we have to take their word that the gold actually exists) and it can be exchanged for gold (from some dealer somewhere) or cash. Now China is getting into this game too. Will the vaults be regularly audited (provided the actual amount of physical gold represented is stored in some vault)? It sounds interesting but also sounds "out of reach" for those who want immediate access to their property. Still, it could be just another addition of asset class for some perhaps but lots of questions remain. The Comex will surely balk (as they don't keep enough physical on hand for outstanding contracts) and who knows how the Europeans markets will react.

slingshot

(04/02/2003; 22:52:16 MDT - Msg ID: 100789)

(No Subject)

Belgian, thank you for your answer.

Welcome New Posters.

Slingshot-----------------<>

Waverider

(04/02/2003; 23:08:56 MDT - Msg ID: 100790)

Euro could outshine dollar in Indonesia

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/ED03Ae01.htmlSnip:
"As a US-led war rages in Iraq, the almighty US dollar is under fire as the international currency of choice in Indonesia. Businesses, the central bank and some in government are eyeing the euro as an international transaction medium that could be less volatile in the long term and might carry less political baggage.

The political backlash against the United States is becoming more apparent in Indonesia, where some want to look at the euro more carefully as the currency of choice. There are reports in financial circles that Indonesia's central bank, Bank Indonesia (BI), is considering the use of the euro for Indonesia's foreign-exchange reserves after the increasing value of the euro during the past few weeks. BI governor Syahril Sabirin has said that there are intentions to study the long-term conditions of the European economy and that a discussion paper on the viability of the euro will be shortly be released internally to the Ministry of Finance for consideration.

With the continued strengthening of the euro against the dollar, several export-driven companies are seriously considering switching to the euro. The national oil and gas company Pertamina is one such company. Although oil is currently traded internationally using US dollars, a finance official from Pertamina stated that the euro looks appealing since its been particularly stable as compared with the dollar, which is increasingly volatile against the Indonesian rupiah. "What is needed is a stable international exchange currency which is internationally recognized. The euro is the nearest alternative," said the official."

Aristotle

(04/02/2003; 23:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 100791)

Thanks Waverider!

Thanks for that latest post from Indonesia in light of my own latest comments on the dinar as opposed to a viable unit for accounting. They're related whether you knew it at the time or not.

Boils down to this. Network externalities will focus even the most independent minded group of clear thinkers.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Aristotle

(04/02/2003; 23:58:36 MDT - Msg ID: 100792)

"They're related..."

Meaning our posts are related, NOT the dinar and "unit of account."

Whew! That was a close one!

Gold. etc. etc. --- Ari

Black Blade

(04/03/2003; 00:52:07 MDT - Msg ID: 100793)

Army: Jessica 'was fighting to the death' before capture

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0402jessicasfight-ON.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON - Pfc. Jessica Lynch, rescued Tuesday from an Iraqi hospital, fought fiercely and shot several enemy soldiers after Iraqi forces ambushed the Army's 507th Ordnance Maintenance company, firing her weapon until she ran out of ammunition, U.S. officials said Wednesday. Lynch, a 19-year-old supply clerk, continued firing at the Iraqis even after she sustained multiple gunshot wounds and watched several other soldiers in her unit die around her in fighting 11 days ago, one official said. The ambush took place after a 507th convoy, supporting the advancing 3rd Infantry Division, took a wrong turn in the southern city of Nasiriyah. "She was fighting to the death," the official said. "She did not want to be taken alive." Several officials cautioned that the precise sequence of events is still being determined, and further information would emerge as Lynch is debriefed. Reports thus far are based on battlefield intelligence, they say, which comes from monitored communications and from Iraqi sources in Nasiriyah whose reliability has yet to be assessed. Pentagon officials said they had heard "rumors" of Lynch's heroics but had no confirmation.

Black Blade: Off topic, but interesting nonetheless. US forces are moving on Baghdad now. One Blackhawk down and one F-16 reported shot down.

(04/03/2003; 02:21:49 MDT - Msg ID: 100794)

China Accumulating Gold - Richard Russell

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell040303.html.

Belgian

(04/03/2003; 02:50:17 MDT - Msg ID: 100795)

@ Gresham, * The Wise * # 100782

Yep Gresham, Kev is doing some nice work overhere in Belgium. Let us hope he's not running into trouble with his investigations. W're talking about a stash of 1,000 tonnes of gold-exchange-reserves, that highly indebted Belgium needed to buy its EMU ticket. Was it a straithforward sale or is it a "COLLATERAL" ??? Are these 1,000 tonnes history or still in use as a settlement in progress ? The national debt of 120% GDP has amply declined to 105%. Is this the result after selling 1,000 tonnes of Gold ??? Something very wrong/illogical here ! We need to get this question into parlement.
In the mean time, we keep watching what will happen with the remaining 258 tonnes !

A Big Bravo for your questions in # 100782, wich evidence your deep insight into the Gold matters.
Allow me to reflect on it.

Nobody is going to find any "official" document that will "explicitely" refer to oil for gold / gold for dollar-support / euro for oil. Otherwise, A/FOA's thesis could be reduced to a couple of pages, instead of a deep digging into history and evolving present. We have to keep on "decoding" all statements (past and future) as to how they relate to Gold/oil/$-� currencies, relationships, trends, intentions, policies, political wills, etc...

Go and have a look at the following publications :

*From Gold to euro* : On monetary theory and history of currency systems. Heinz Peter Spahn.

*History of the euro* by J.Orlin Grable.

*Pushing euro up, oil down* : European vieuw, compiled by Srdja Trifkovic (chroniclesmagazine.org)

When you Google on euro/gold/oil and central bank commitments...you will find much more of this kind of articles. But they all remain very, subtly suggestive, into A/FOA's thesis.

Why is that ?

Euroland (and its euro) is "in the process" of *decoupling* from decades of dollar-US-oriented leadership and automatic alliance(s). Euroland wants to become "independant" as a son (ECB) from its father (FED). Once this notion is grasped, one can easely understand that such a process is not always running smoothly. But it is happening NOW !

That's why there are *** different *** Gold-factions, within Euroland ! They have differences in opinion about the euro versus the dollar...use of the gold-exchange-reserves...time-tables...degree of independance from the Atlantic father (brother)...and many other policies.

In the middle of all this, we have *La France* ! It is France that desires to lead Euroland...away from father US !
La France is the one who is historically an extreme "PRO" Gold actor and has deep historical ties with the Middle East, formerly shared with the UK. France will keep on maneuvering for the oil for euro. But faces counter winds from the "OLD" pro dollar factions within Euroland.

Yes, Euroland cannot put its brand new (modern) "idendity" on a high profile, because the older generation, is still reluctant to accept such a dramatic change with the past evidencies of Atlantic common causes. It is the main element in A/FOA's expression of "political will". It is about the degree of independance and capacity or will to run one's own euro-path. Voila, it is this evolution that we are watching, daily.

For the time being, Euroland (ECB) is "still" supporting the dollar !

France agreed to support a *brief* extension for Duisenberg's term !!! Is Trichet a Gold Taliban ? W'll see somewhat later. What is the difference between French fries and Freedom fries ? Why is Germany not demonized...? Because they have a relative powerful ally...Russia !
Why are the Netherlands (a goldreserve seller-dollar supporter) deeply devided at present ? Division between pro-$ and pro-� ! Yep Sir Gresham...the divide and rule strategy all over the place. Heavy political arm-twisting.

Yesterday in BBC hard-talk, the UK Tories stated almost bluntly that Iraq's gigantic oil-reserves will be developped for the benefit of the liberated...AND the liberators as well !!! Will the gold-dinar have the capacity to strike back ?

Will the (possible) renewal of the WA (2004) be a drastic (Trichet) one or another compromis between the two factions ?

Today, Germany (Schroeder) lifts a warning finger about the possible confiscation of Iraqi oil !

All this turmoil is happening against a global economic detoriation / stagnation, wich makes positioning much more difficult for Euroland (�) than the US ($).
This means that the circumstances are not favorable for making "shocking" moves by any participant or faction.
The ECB is under a lot of pressure to follow the FED logic (zero IRs). Structural reforms (not only European ones) are postponed in the hope we can all manage it back to the good old days, once again ! I'm convinced we can't...and you !?

Thanks Sirs, Gresham and Kevin.

Black Blade

(04/03/2003; 03:02:58 MDT - Msg ID: 100796)

One Ugly Chart

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/charts/cdcharttcl?symm=GLD.FX1&hist=1&dbrushwidth=1&charttype=1&gd1=na&gd2=na&benchmark=∈fos=3∈dtype1=0∈dtype2=0&volumen=2
Gold is falling right after the Hong Kong market closed. On the other hand it is now a screaming bargain. US dollar is rising, equities markets are rising, and US troops are entering Baghdad suburbs meeting little resistance. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(04/03/2003; 05:44:55 MDT - Msg ID: 100797)

@J-Bullion - Gold Price

www.ft.comToday, for the very first time the FT is displaying the price of Gold (on the front page) along with Euro/US$/GBP cross-rates and of course Brent Crude!!!! Kind of says it all really. I emphasise that they always carry the price of bullion (and other commodities), but today, for the first time, it is FRONT PAGE news. See title Markets Latest.

LeSin

(04/03/2003; 06:07:11 MDT - Msg ID: 100798)

Russia Finds Solution To Having Excess US$ - Buys Gold - A Novel Idea, Yes?

http://www.interfax-news.com/TodaysFSUNews/today.html

The Central Bank considers not completely effective the sterilization of the money supply by holding depository auctions, Bank chief Ignatiyev said Wednesday at the conference �Modernizing Russia's economy: Social context�.

It is thought that the country's gold reserves this year will expand by $7 billion. However, they grew by $7 billion in the first quarter alone. He noted that in those three months the Central Bank attracted four times more deposits than in the same period last year.

It needs to be recognized that this manner of sterilization is not very effective, as the necessity of significantly increasing interest rates is leading to an outflow of capital, he said. Ignatiyev noted that, in his view, fiscal sterilization is much more effective.

mas

(04/03/2003; 06:53:55 MDT - Msg ID: 100799)

Ain't this fun

Gold at 325, what a laugh. I'm all over the floor laughing. What's next .10 cents a gallon? When is this stupidity going to stop! Are you ever going to admit that you have serious financial problems or are we just going to continue hiding it with war?
My question, Florida/Al Gore - if he won then what would have happened?
Next question - how long do you (Americans) expect the rest of the world to accept this treatment? War, manipulation of markets, mis-information, etc etc...
I think it would be best to exit stage left........
Gold is really the only equalizer in this world, the rest is @�$%.
Good luck to all cause we are now in unknown territory(ies).

Cytek

(04/03/2003; 07:03:18 MDT - Msg ID: 100800)

Economist predicts world recession

http://money.cnn.com/2003/04/02/news/economy/sars_recession/index.htmMorgan Stanley economist cites SARS, war uncertainties as the main causes for pending recession.
April 2, 2003: 1:11 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNN) - One of Wall Street's leading economists is predicting a global recession this year, prompted in large part by fears surrounding Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), the "mystery illness" with cold-like symptoms that is blamed for 78 deaths in 15 countries, CNNfn has learned.

Morgan Stanley's chief economist in the United States, Stephen Roach, will formally advise clients Friday that he's forecasting a world recession in 2003. His previous forecast was for an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent.

Roach told CNNfn that SARS is "just another nail on the coffin for the world economy." And slower global growth, he said, will impact U.S. exports.

"You've got war, SARS, uncertainty, and imbalances that will prevail after the war is over and until a cure for the disease is found," Roach said.

Air Canada (ACNAF: Research, Estimates) blamed the disease for contributing to its financial plight as it filed for bankruptcy Tuesday. An airline spokeswoman said SARS had brought a reduction in flights between Canada and Hong Kong, Beijing, and Shanghai.

Of the 2,223 cases of SARS confirmed by the World Health Organization, 1,898 occurred in mainland China and Hong Kong.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday its

Cytek- Even with SARS hitting mainstream news, the DOW rallys 215 points yesterday. Did someone say "PENDING RECESSION". DAAAAA. And now futures are up another 100 points, and then this morning the Labor Department reports that new jobless claims applications jump by 38,000 to 445,000 for the week ending March 29. Everything is being discounted because the troops advance into Bagdad. My only question is where is the "WMD". I think the Marines are going to be ticked off if they don't find anything.

mas

(04/03/2003; 07:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 100801)

Sir Belgian, why do we have to have a gun to our heads?

Your point - The ECB is under a lot of pressure to follow the FED logic (zero IRs). Structural reforms (not only European ones) are postponed in the hope we can all manage it back to the good old days, once again ! I'm convinced we can't...and you !?

Why does the rest of the world have to accept this? Why are all the reserves still in dollars? Because we like them, yeah right! Let's see I make some shoes over here for .50 cents and sell them over there for 100. (Nice profit for "over there"). And you pay me in paper thats printed on what, with what?
Time will tell as you say, but I am really upset that these governments don't put whats WRONG right. No wonder every one is on the streets, ain't no use listening to a politician, all they do is just talk, (no-sense)!

Don't worry Gold will go up. Wall of worry they say. I'm still laughing at how manipulated everything is. FOA said that IR needed to be ZERO before he showed up again. Were close.

Good luck to all.

Gondolin

(04/03/2003; 07:25:24 MDT - Msg ID: 100802)

mas 100799

Spot on. How long IS the rest of the world going to take it? The cynical would almost suggest its' a bit too convenient having SARS plunge the the Eastern Asian economies into freefall at the same time as so called war fears cause havoc in the US amd European markets. Maybe TPTB have hoarded all the gold they can and are about to exit left, run for the hills and blame a world-wide epidemic and a catastrophic middle eastern war for the economic meltdown. Just another conspiracy theory. (?)

Mr Gresham

(04/03/2003; 07:29:50 MDT - Msg ID: 100803)

The Madness of Empire

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Does this sound like a good idea to you? Is Richard Perle someone you'd like to have over for dinner, let alone marry your daughter?

mas -- you are right. Either we gold-philes are wrong, wrong, wrong, or we 'Mericans have entered strange, strange territory and it's nothing us metallic nutcases are going to be happy being right about. Exeunt stage left, exactamundo!

Belgian -- There is so much in yours. Factions, I suspected. And of course the espionage community has re-tooled post-USSR to tend toward, ah, business matters. No hand is strong if revealed too soon, but this war certainly forces the playing of many cards, more quickly.

Euro financial institutions were drawn into unwise lending/investments, too. Are they being propped up -- in other words, can the Euro be compromised by being drawn into dollar-type games?

Anyway, Russia, China, and whoever else is buying today must be happy, happy, happy. Fail up, fail down, but fail the market shall. (I am also aware that such a hypothesis can be used as a cover for being wrong about POG's future direction -- but, hey, it's like holding an option on a takeover candidate -- just waiting for the news...)

Belgian

(04/03/2003; 07:58:22 MDT - Msg ID: 100804)

@ WAC

POG Not only on the frontpage of the F.T....but also daily commented on the CNBC ticker tape as well, when POG tumbled from 390$ to 325$. As if the dollar-media want to let the world know that they are still in control of the dollar-reserve and that the present (and future) liberation operations are for the benefit of all of us...and them !

So WAC, when you say that "this says it all"...what exactly do you mean by that ? TIA.

Idem dito for the POO (decline) ! It is some kind of a sweetener (appaisement) for the atrocities that all wars/conflicts, bring with them. Liberation of Iraq = Lower POO and your bravery/sacrifices will be rewarded (paid for) at the gas station ! No, not me being cynical but this comes literally from CNNfn.

Powell in Brussels : Iraqi oil for the people and we are going to tell them for what these oil-revenus should be used for ! No oil for your own weaponary. Oil in dollars and a pipeline to Haifa. Basta !
And to UN members, especially for those with a veto-right...if you want a peace of the cake...get organized to occupy Iraq under UN auspices and bring some money with you. Let's negociate about this. And in the mean time...keep your euro quiet, will ye.

WAC, am I having it completely wrong here, in your opinion ?

POG + POO + $ are telling us under what kind of circumstances, the coming negociations should take place.

J-Bullion

(04/03/2003; 08:39:58 MDT - Msg ID: 100805)

WAC

I see the price of bullion right in-between the currency rates and the major commodity oil. The question is, has the FT labeled gold as money? or a commodity?

Wait till gold is up at 390 again (no guess when? just that it will be up there at some point) and see how quickly it disappears from the front page. LOL.

Belgian

(04/03/2003; 09:14:26 MDT - Msg ID: 100806)

@ Gresham and Mas

Gresham : Oh boy, are you right !!!!
*** Euro financial institutions were drawn into unwise (insane-!!!) investments (gambles-!!!)
I have been shouting this overhere (Belgium-Euroland) like a devil, Sir ! But it was soooohhhhh much fun, wasn't it ?
The greatttt AngloAmerican *financial* dream(s)...before the nightmare.
I don't care about the stupidity of the financial institutions (banks-funds-etc) but about all these ordinarry folks who have lost and are still losing their honest *** SAVINGS ***. Believe me...there are some dramas (personal financial) overhere. Simply because of infantile, blind trust in the financial institutions. In one word : Baaahhhh !

You : ...the euro be compromised by being drawn into dollar-type games (gambles)...
Me : If the dollar-reserve (and its policies) would still be percepted as "omnipotent"...the euro would never had recovered from its initial knock down (minus 30%) and would already be crushed by now. The euro must definitely have a concept that will outrun the dollar sooner or later !
But, the lack of euro-leadership and internal division, are the main reason why the euro (and concepts) take so much time to implement its intentions. For instance : how can the euro compete with the phenomenon of * dollar-diplomacy * (cfr. Leigh listing) ? If the euro would start imitating the dollar war-logic and spend confetti on the military...it (�) would be no other currency than the dollar.

Thanks Gresham, for the stimulating respons.

Mas : Yes Sir, it takes a lot of selfcontrol to remain cool with what is happening now. An absolute minority of "rulers" is taking us "ALL" (AAAALLLLL) for complete brainless idiots. And with "all", I do mean AngloAmerican, Euroland citizens as well.
But never doubt about Free Gold ! And indeed, a lot of Goldphiles are laughing and taking their time to accumulate the available precious. This Gold-reflex will only increase because more and more people are coming under direct/indirect threats of all sorts (financial, economical, military).
C. Powell stated in Brussels that any UN-initiative would be conducted under the coalition's terms...and will therefor fail of course. How will the dollar react to this aftermath of the conflict(s), somewhat later ?

(04/03/2003; 09:36:14 MDT - Msg ID: 100807)

From a Russian point of view

http://english.pravda.ru/war/2003/04/03/45570.htmlRussians analyse, the consequences of a Bush victory and a Bush stumble.

The stumble is defined as a war of at least three months duration. The iraq war site of Russians (http://www.aeronautics.ru/) also mentions three months as critical. They assume that US economy (already burdened with structural problems) shall begin to feel the heat after three months.

It is a gamble. Dices have been thrown. We, the spectators, are waiting, breathlessly...

Daniel Druff

(04/03/2003; 09:51:10 MDT - Msg ID: 100808)

mas

"Next question - how long do you (Americans) expect the rest of the world to accept this treatment?" mas

You'll accept it and you'll like it until the world's economic community comes up with another monetary system, so get busy.

DD

mikal

(04/03/2003; 09:51:31 MDT - Msg ID: 100809)

@ge

3 mo.? LOL
Another arbitrary prophecy, from wanna-be authorities. Entertainment Mahendra wouldn't even dream up. At least he has half-credible explanations.

a nation of one

(04/03/2003; 10:03:26 MDT - Msg ID: 100810)

future pog

When you are in the field, fighting a war is kind of like trying to dance with a big octopus, except that war has more arms in more places, some quite unexpected. Those who venture to do so without significant hands-on experience tend to find it is different from what they imagined. Their optimism is often without sound justification. And those at home, who sit in their comfy chairs and monitor its goings-on tend to optimism that is even less real. It is these people who feel ebullient on any positive news and buy stocks on that feeling, even though the real outcome is not yet known and is not related to their biased understanding. These are minor players, whipped by the winds of their own emotions, and by the tales told for the purpose of giving them incentives to fling their money. They are gamblers. People who buy and sell on the basis of sound reasoning tend to make up their minds only after due consideration, and they tend to be right more often. Stocks are up now on account of feelings. They will come down on account of reality. Gold is still strong, for good reasons. Even the tale-telling mood whippers have been unable to inflict gross damage on POG with pretty -but unrealistic- stories. The primary trend is still up. I love America. But gold is also good.

mikal

(04/03/2003; 10:10:04 MDT - Msg ID: 100811)

@Daniel Druff

Re: "so get busy." Speak for yourself.
How do you know they haven't prepared a new monetary system? Have you read Foreign Affairs or FT lately or followed any gold forums?
Common sense would dictate that a handful of FOA's GIANTS or a trillion dollar fraternity of vested internationalists would have contingency plans, nay deadlines set in place and backup plans of all kinds. Whereby their secrecy guarantees them and their family a share of the adulation of the conquered and all the benefits of club membership.
Do we know a member of one of the clubs? Hardly likely, unless we are a low level operative, who would still be uninitiated to the real lives of those that pull the strings.

Daniel Druff

(04/03/2003; 10:18:51 MDT - Msg ID: 100812)

Mikal

"How do you know they haven't prepared a new monetary system?" Mikal

I'm suggesting a new monetary system which is reasonably moral rather than a phoney fiat euro/dollar/whatever scam. A system which rewards frugality and responsible citizenship unlike this moronic rip-off deal we currently have. And you are correct of course, the current system allows the insiders an escape in that they can acquire credit and buy gold...no problem.

DD

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/03/2003; 10:54:34 MDT - Msg ID: 100814)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

Mr Gresham

(04/03/2003; 11:51:31 MDT - Msg ID: 100817)

Thanks, Belgian

http://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/rate_results/753/2319/Must be that new beer I've been drinking, Nostradamus, from Brasserie la Caracole in, where else, Belgium. The powers of prophecy do come a bit more pricily than with our Bud, so I keep it within limit. (And of course, keep the NM in the fridge, after a hard day of carrying la plata.)

TownCrier

(04/03/2003; 11:55:20 MDT - Msg ID: 100818)

Federal Reserve adds $14.75 billion to banking system

In open market operations today, $4 billion of that sum was added through 28-day repurchase agreements, the balance through overnight repos.

There is no meaningful limit to the amount of new money that can injected through this means. Further, the deflation monster is found wheezing and anemic when the government is ready willing and able to step up as the borrower and spender of last resort with the Fed monetizing banking assets of all stripes and an endless stream of Treasury bonds.

Call Centennial today for good exchange rates on a very prudent course of action -- portfolio diversification with unprintable gold. If you buy the printable kind of "gold" (i.e., futures, options, etc.) you haven't achieved meaningful diversification from risk of default and inflationary depreciation and losses.

R.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/03/2003; 12:10:33 MDT - Msg ID: 100819)

A proper treasure never expires

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

Cytek

(04/03/2003; 12:30:17 MDT - Msg ID: 100820)

SARS is Spreading

http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/sars.htmThe table from the CDC's site shows a table of cases under investigation. Wonder if this thing will break out into an epidemic? BlackBlade puts it right, better have a food storage program,cash and gold.

TownCrier

(04/03/2003; 15:05:23 MDT - Msg ID: 100821)

Calling your attention to the latest CB Insider update...

http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/current.html(excerpts from this biweekly issue)

Newsmakers reports from the war zone...
All hands are on deck as central banks take stock of the escalating crisis in Iraq. At a guess, the most twitchy of all might be Iraq's own central bank, whose very livelihood is on the line as events draw menacingly closer to what seems to be their inexorable conclusion. The governor of the central bank, Issam Rashid Hwaish, has poured vitriol on the announcement that overseas assets held by the central bank (as well as other government funds) are to be seized and transferred to the New York Federal Reserve. He has denounced this as an "act of piracy", as "these deposits enjoy the protection of the party that decided to freeze them" - in other words the UN Security Council which did so back in 1990. Hwaish says that therefore "US authorities are committing a new stupidity by violating international law."

But this is not all Hwaish has to worry about. Washington has long been plotting the replacement for Saddam Hussein's regime, and that does not exclude plans for rebuilding the central bank as well as possibly issuing a new currency in postwar Iraq. It has been conjectured that the dollar may become the de facto currency, though some have suggested that perhaps the currency used by the Kurds in northern Iraq, the "Swiss print" dinar, might replace the dinar which is in circulation in the rest of the country. "Whatever it is, it will not be a currency with Saddam Hussein's picture on it," according to one senior US official.

[Regular USAGOLD forumers will recall that we covered these events mentioned above as they unfolded in prior weeks.]

What's more, it will presumably not be up to the central bank. But by all accounts, the Iraqi central bank doesn't have much say in such matters anyway. According to dissident former governor of the 1970s Salah Al-Sheikhly, who is now one of the lynchpins of the opposition movement against Saddam, "the central bank no longer performs its institutional role in the economy... It doesn't regulate exchange rates or interest rates; these decisions are controlled by the regime. In reality, Saddam and his sons control the printing presses and they are just manufacturing more money." No surprises there.

A political exile based in London and no friend of Saddam, Al-Sheikhly says Saddam has done for the Iraqi economy by racking up prodigious debts with unfettered military spending - to the tune of $112 billion according to his estimates. "It is with governments like Russia, France and Bulgaria for the supply of arms," he has said.

Along with other economists, he has been working with the US State Department and Treasury to come up with an economic plan for postwar Iraq, favouring a scenario such as took place in former Yugoslavia where 66% of its debts were forgiven.

-- Business As Usual In Turkey --

Other central banks in the region have reacted with admirable equanimity in the face of the crisis in Iraq. Central banks are notorious for denying anything is amiss when plainly it is -- defending pegs when devaluations loom is a prime example -- but this may not be the case right now.

In Turkey, the central bank is taking things in its stride. The vice-governor of the central bank, Professor Fatih Ozatay, reminded Newsmakers that "the central bank has a lot of experience from the Gulf war of 1991" and it was well aware that "financial stability is a must". Although he cautioned that the main thing is that fiscal policy "should be further tightened", he said the central bank is fully prepared for every eventuality: "As the central bank, we are targeting inflation and our main aim is price stability, but since there is a war, financial stability takes the first priority." Ozatay also pointed out that "the smooth functioning of the foreign exchange market during the war is important"; consequently measures have been taken to meet additional demand for foreign exchange and the central bank stands ready to intervene if necessary.

-- What The Bernanke! --

Ben Bernanke, the tidy-bearded maverick Fed governor, has taken no time to find his feet at the Fed, though some may question whether he is punching above his weight. Amongst his first acts as a governor was to take it upon himself to apologise, on the Fed's behalf, for causing the Great Depression in front of the great monetarist icon Milton Friedman himself. That small matter out of the way, he then saw fit to dispel any fears of deflation, by unveiling a newfangled device, the printing press, as the "secret weapon" and reminding every one of the central bank's hyperinflationary potential. Not content with this, he now has initiated a full and frank discussion of how the US monetary policy regime should function with his fellow governors -- not all of whom share his opinions -- arguing that explicit inflation targeting might not be such a bad thing.

-- Kohn Demurs --

At almost exactly the same time, Donald Kohn, who also sits on the board of governors, gave a speech apparently in direct contradiction to Bernanke's, declaring his doubts as to the desirability of implementing an inflation-targeting regime. All this as the US goes to war, with Greenspan's future uncertain, oh and an enormous fiscal deficit on the way. While Bernanke is to be commended for his openness, Newsmakers can't help wondering what Alan Greenspan makes of all this. Has he reminded the professor that the Fed is not a study group, and that solidarity, rather than one's economic reform agenda, should be the order of the day? Has he asked him to read a recent paper from the BIS? This suggests that too much transparency from a central bank may not be altogether a good thing: should the Fed close the discount window on Governor Bernanke's open-mouth operations?

-------(see url for more, especially on government appropriations of the monetary system)------

This has been one of the better updates in awhile, and is as pointedly irreverent and insightful as ever, making for good readability of conventionally dry material. A must read.

R.

mikal

(04/03/2003; 15:14:53 MDT - Msg ID: 100822)

"European Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged"

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/030403/eu_fin_europe_interest _rates_5.htmlAlso discusses Jean-Claude Trichet's upcoming court date and a possible short delay in filling Duisenberger's seat, as head of the ECB.

mikal

(04/03/2003; 15:17:30 MDT - Msg ID: 100823)

Link to IR story

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/030403/eu_fin_europe_interest_rates_5.htmlCorrect link.

mikal

(04/03/2003; 15:19:54 MDT - Msg ID: 100824)

Correction

Duisenberg's, NOT "Duisenberger's"

Black Blade

(04/03/2003; 16:33:35 MDT - Msg ID: 100825)

China -- Externally or Internally Driven? - Stephen Roach (New York)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030402-wed.html#anchor0
Snippit:

While in Beijing recently, I caused a bit of a stir in discussing the sources of China's extraordinary economic growth. I depicted the vigor of the Chinese economy as being heavily dependent on exports -- an externally led growth dynamic that would put China center stage in feeling the stresses and strains of the global business cycle and globalization. I was criticized on this point -- by both Chinese and western analysts. They maintained that China's impressive growth could be traceable more to solid increases in domestic demand. This is obviously a key point in assessing the sustainability of Chinese economic growth, to say nothing of China's impact on the rest of Asia and the broader global economy. Who's right?

Black Blade: An interesting analysis of the Chinese economy. I see the Chinese economy as the only likely economy on the fast track for global expansion. This would explain a lot of the soaring demand for precious metals in that country. In today's DMR I touch lightly on this with remarks by Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters. He states what I have long suspected, that is the Chinese government is quietly accumulating gold and encouraging its citizens to accumulate gold so they may emerge as the next "economic super power" to eventually be untied to the US dollar (the Renimbi is pegged to the dollar). The central bank is known to be accumulating tens of tons of gold by direct purchase from SA mines and perhaps on the open market from time to time. They are also rumored to be the major buyer of gold through so called "central bank sales". The newly liberalized gold market and the establishment of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, not to mention much less restrictive gold mining regulations, is just more grist for the mill so to speak. If they can't beat us militarily (an expensive and untidy option) they certainly can take advantage of our weakness and beat us economically. The first stage of course is to unburden themselves from weakening US dollar reserves and replace them with precious metals. The Chinese have always been know to be patient and this quiet accumulation at fire sale prices is very much in their favor. As the old Chinese proverb goes: "Interesting Times".

Off to the gym!

Socrates964

(04/03/2003; 17:12:46 MDT - Msg ID: 100826)

China

I agree - seems to me that Chinese exports are going to contract as the rest of the world goes into recession - I presume that their response will be to redirect demand towards their home market. Under such cirucmstances, the key to success is low manufacturing costs, and as a major importer, the key to low manufacturing costs is a strong yuan, and presumably one of the keys to a strong yuan is a shift of foreign reserves away from the $ towards euros and PMs.

silvercollector

(04/03/2003; 17:24:37 MDT - Msg ID: 100827)

I don't understand anything anymore

"...assets held by the central bank (as well as other government funds) are to be seized and transferred to the New York Federal Reserve..."

Didn't Bush and Blair (in Azores) promise that the "assets" and the property of the Iraqi people remain so??

A week or so ago it was announced that some 40,000 Republican Guard were leaving the (relative) safety of Baghdad and heading south to head off the advancing coalition. It is reported that they are getting smoked.
Now it is reported that they cannot retreat back into the city.

Why would they do that (ie. leave in the first place)??

The Invisible Hand

(04/03/2003; 17:43:14 MDT - Msg ID: 100828)

The end of a (political and/or monetary) regime

SNIP from the DMR:
Comment: Gold was hit on fund selling as the Iraq War comes to a close and speculators attempt to front run the official announcement. The U.S. dollar and equities markets gained although economic data suggests a much weaker economy. Over the last few days I have been quietly hoping for the Iraq War to come to a quick conclusion so the weak short-term speculators would be shaken out and gold could continue its relentless long term climb to its true value on the weak U.S. dollar and grim global economy.

Are we to understand that the US of A regimes (from Bush sr. over Clinton to Bush jr.) are about to fall (thus that, ordered or not so, anarchy will be instituted in the US of A) and that POG manipulation will come to an end?
Or should we believe the information manipulation by the media of the US of A that it is another regime which about to leave the stage?
Are regimes and (world reserve-) currencies linked?
news.bbc.co.uk is announcing in its "latest news" section that the PM of the French regime (the Ancien(t) one?) is saying that the regime of the US of A made a grave error by instituting a war against the Iraqi regime. Why does the French regime make that statement _now_?

Goldilox

(04/03/2003; 17:54:10 MDT - Msg ID: 100829)

Russia and Al Gore (two subjects)

BB: Since USA watched the USSR-Afgani war bankrupt the USSR war machine during their quest to establish an Afgan pipeline for Bizekistani oil, it must seem ironic for them to watch us stretching our military resources so thin in these many excursions. While we inflate the $$ further with massive borrowing and very expensive military operations, they get to fortify their financial status buying gold like it's Christmas.

mas:Don't know where we'd be right now if the election weirdness had not occurred, but I read last week that Al Gore recently joined the board of Apple Computer. My guess on this is that democratic California is building a political challenge to the Bush regime. Energy gouging and contracting capital equipment markets have left the tech sector heavily battered, and they need to unite a political effort aimed at the highly energy-centric Bush government.

Waverider

(04/03/2003; 20:04:21 MDT - Msg ID: 100831)

Tidbits

Silvercollector...Where are the Rublican Guards...the exact same question is being asked on CNN. Other questions I might add...why did Iraq expel AlJazeera? And why did Iraq turn the lights out in Baghdad? Hmmm...

Where is Sir Sector - we haven't heard from him for a few days....I miss his news and views which balanced (dis)information provided by mainstream media.

J-Bullion, Balzac and Mikal....I sent an email to Bloomberg to ask what happened to spot Gold and Silver. I received a response tonight indicating that they were inadvertently deleted during the switch over and should be up again shortly. We'll see!

Aristotle - you're welcome! Sector first mentioned the idea of Indonesia transferring foreign exchange reserves to euros a few days back - I suspect they'll be a lot more political pressure amongst Arab nations to say good riddance to the dollar. And thanks for your clarification - you had me going there for a brief second...Gold...got me some!!

Waverider

Black Blade

(04/03/2003; 21:08:19 MDT - Msg ID: 100832)

Goldilox

I don't know how it will all play out in Iraq. The war is effectively over. Now to "win the peace". The costs will certainly be a drain as a "Marshall Plan" will be needed and now there is talk of letting the UN manage the reconstruction. The US will bear most of the costs of the war, occupation, and reconstruction and just maybe get little in return unless there is some plan for long-term dedicated oil supply. The Russians and French are now whining that they may lose out on their tens of $billions in loans and oil concession contracts. I saw one estimate of nearly $132 billion in loans to Saddam. No wonder they're ticked off.

As for Al Gore, I understand that he has already received 30,000 options of Apple Computer shares and some other perks. Who says you can't buy political influence? But then he claimed to have invented the Internet. Hmmm�

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(04/03/2003; 21:29:57 MDT - Msg ID: 100833)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

It must be mentioned that debt levels at the corporate level, debt levels at the consumer level, and debt levels at the government level are another inhibitor to the economy's recovery. When you analyze the logic behind the arguments made for economic recovery they don't pass the smell test. Companies lay off workers to improve profitability. These laid off workers go out and borrow more money to maintain consumption. Governments raise taxes to offset growing budget deficits, which reduce workers take home pay. Can anyone explain to me from a macro perspective how all of this works? Raising taxes and firing workers is a prescription for a recession, not a recovery. You don't need to be an analyst, economist or many a nuclear physicists to understand that reducing a worker's income through taxes and reducing a worker's income from unemployment doesn't build purchasing power. Besides, it is savings and investment that build a recovery and create wealth; not debt and consumption.

Black Blade: Exactly! Meanwhile Al Greenspan and the boyz and girlz at the Fed dance lightly on eggs shells saying that the "economy is in recovery" or experiencing a "soft patch". Warren Buffett continues to warn investors and many appear to be listening because the individual investor is content to sit this one out.

BTW, I see that funds and specs are taking up short positions on gold in hopes of a decline once the war is concluded. The question is whether the commercials (aka the pros) exit their shorts and take the opposite position as they tend to do. Regardless, gold producers are aggressively unwinding hedgebooks in a show of confidence of a bull market in gold. View the gold producers as the ultimate insiders. The US dollar is in a world of hurt long-term due to massive debt and deficit spending. The current strength in the dollar is solely based on the hopes of a quick conclusion to the Iraq War and is not supported by any economic indicator I can find except other currencies are just weaker. Hmmm�

Black Blade

(04/03/2003; 21:44:56 MDT - Msg ID: 100834)

Can Saddam's defeat offset lousy earnings?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDD59A414%2DFF44%2D42B8%2DB7E4%2D4FBEB0112348%7D&siteid=mktwThe dogs of war

Snippit:

Over the next six weeks, hidden somewhere in the headlines between Peter Arnett and the bunker-to-bunker search for Saddam, will be news about the lousiest set of quarterly earnings we've seen yet in this three-year bear market. Companies in industries ranging from airlines and travel to media to technology are expected to dump a ton of bad news on investors about their performance in the past three months and their outlooks going forward. Lots of them will blame the war for their uncertain outlooks. Others will try to pack as much of their dirty laundry into the first quarter as possible to get all the bad news out of the way.

The question is whether investors care. With the market moving up and down in lockstep with the tone of headlines coming out of Iraq the last two weeks, it's possible that reports of progress in taking Baghdad and finding and killing Saddam could offset a lousy earnings and economic environment. That certainly explains the rally this week, when the dramatic rescue of Army Pfc. Jessica Lynch from her Iraqi captors and the beginning of the Battle of Baghdad stoked a huge move for equities, even as economic indicators came out poor and we stare at a lame earnings season ahead. "We're seeing the rally because we're not staring at earnings, we're staring at the war," said Marc Gerstein, director of investment research at Multex.com

Black Blade: Perhaps so. I may have under estimated the investing publics gullibility (or is that stupidity?). The economic data is so horrible who in their right mind is buying into the stock market these days. Is this the reason for the recent slide in precious metals? Perhaps, as I said, I may have underestimated the psychology of the average Lemming. Some of the reasons given on CNBC and other financial media are absolutely absurd I have a hard time believing it myself. In the end the markets must respond to the deteriorating economic data and poor fundamental case for stocks and the dollar, while gold must catch up to economic reality. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade

(04/03/2003; 22:43:37 MDT - Msg ID: 100835)

International doubts dog US plans for postwar Iraq

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=172854
Snippit:

NICOSIA, Apr.3 -- Even as US officials try to address growing international concerns about US control of oil fields in postwar Iraq, more doubts have arisen about the near-term potential for any projected boom in the Arab country's oil production. US Sec. of State Colin Powell briefed EU foreign ministers and NATO leaders in Brussels on the war Thursday and considered their opinions on "the appropriate role" for the United Nations in rebuilding Iraq. While acknowledging a role for other nations and organizations in rebuilding post-war Iraq, Powell nonetheless maintained Washington's position that coalition forces should be dominant once the government of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has fallen. "I think the coalition has to play the leading role," he told a closing news conference. "But that does not mean we have to shut others out. There will definitely be a United Nations role, but what the exact nature of that role will be remains to be seen." Powell's position on that issue was no surprise. Last week, he said, "We didn't take on this huge burden with our coalition partners and not (plan) to be able to have a significant, dominating control over how it unfolds in the future."

Several European leaders have expressed concern that the US wants control of Iraq's post-war transition period, particularly over its oil industry, and they insist on a post-war rebuilding plan that calls for greater control by the UN. "After this war, the UN must play the central role as far as the future of Iraq and the new political order is concerned," Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder told the German parliament Thursday. He said, "I would warn against speculating at this point about the details of the necessary reconstruction of Iraq." Earlier, French President Jacques Chirac, who threatened to use France's veto to block a UN Security Council resolution authorizing the use of force against Iraq, said that allowing the US and Britain to oversee Iraq's post-war transition would be rewarding the "belligerents."

US plans call for a post-war military administration under Gen. Tommy Franks, head of the US Central Command, or a deputy, and a civil administration directed by Jay Garner, a retired general who heads the Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian assistance. Garner is expected to oversee the civilian administration and to attach US officials to various Iraqi ministries, including oil. In time, control of Iraq's government will
gradually pass to an Iraqi administration. The US, which maintains that Iraq's oil revenue is essential to finance postwar reconstruction, is expected to install a senior American oil executive to oversee Iraq's petroleum industry. UK Foreign Office Minister Mike O'Brien outlined a British variation of the US plan Wednesday. "What we are doing is establishing the basic administrative structure, security, and law and order after Saddam has gone," he explained. Under the UK proposals, Garner would lead a team, including six British officials, that would make decisions about running basic community services in the first "few weeks" after a war. "Also, we want to set up an Iraqi interim authority whose job it will then be to take over from Jay Garner to run Iraq as quickly as possible as we can enable that to happen," O'Brien explained. The coalition team would serve temporarily in an advisory capacity to those Iraqi officials

Black Blade: It sounds like the plan for postwar Iraq is being planned. It appears much like the WWII transition of Gen. McArthur in Japan and Gen. Lewis in Germany. In the meantime those who opposed the Iraqi War will be squeezed out of the picture. I guess so, the US and UK did the "heavy lifting" so to speak.

Waverider

(04/03/2003; 22:48:20 MDT - Msg ID: 100836)

Black Blade

Hmmm...I'm very suspect of what's being reported on the news re: Iraq and the war being all but over. Once again this week, on April 1, the US dollar index fell to 99.27, the DOW fell below 8,000, and POG was at around $335.00. Then...all of a sudden, stories of a quick victory and multiple military successes in Iraq are abundant. I'm suspect....I think the economy is in such a mess that we NEED positive (biased) war news at the moment to sustain the dollar and the DOW (and yes, the lemmings are buying it), because as you pointed out, the economic news is atrocious. The markets don't have the ability to absorb a double whammy - bad economic news *and* bad (even balanced) news from the war front. I'm cautious - I still don't think the danger of WMD has passed, in fact I don't think they'll be used until it's apparent to those in control that the regime is fallen - they very well could be used as a last resort. IMHO I think things are probably far from certain in terms of when Operation Iraqi Liberation (OIL)...oops...I mean Freedom is complete, but that won't and can't be suggested in the mainstream news because of market sensitivity and reactivity. I guess time will tell.

BTW - a quote I came across today...

"Only the dead have been the end of the war" Plato.

Waverider

slingshot

(04/03/2003; 23:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 100837)

Post War Iraq

Will this coalition army be one of liberation or just another army of occupation. I find it troubling that American troops will occupy a land after the hostilites are over. I prefer my friends return home. There may be an opportunity that may be well missed. When these men of evil have been incarerated they should be tried according to Islamic Law for their War Crimes and not international law. If not I feel that those who had suffered under this evil regime will be cheated from their justice in their own custums or religion. To be judged by their own would send a signal to other Arab countries. This form of democracy to be insalled will not be accepted for the people have different traditions centuries old, and terrorism will be its objection. So too if they choose to go to a gold standard and forbid usury, So Be It. I fear that the sacrifices of our armed forces to free an oppressed people will be lost to the greed of corporate giants.

Slingshot---------------<>

Black Blade

(04/04/2003; 01:12:05 MDT - Msg ID: 100838)

Waverider and slingshot

Waverider � I considered that there may be some fight still in them but for all practical purposes it looks more like a mop up operation at this point. If the Iraqis choose to use WMD then they will probably wait until the coalition forces "bunch up" on the outskirts of Baghdad for maximum effect. It could be that at the end Saddam (if indeed he is still alive) and his "inner circle" already know their likely fate in a War Crimes tribunal and would probably have no qualms about taking out a lot of coalition forces, Baghdad residents, and themselves in one final act. Sort of like David Koresh or Jim Jones. Still, VX (or any other nerve agent) is not a very pleasant way to "check out".

Slingshot � I saw an analyst on a news program who suggested that there are about 85 suspects that could qualify for the death sentence and maybe up to another 2,000 who qualify for sentences up to life imprisonment (of course several may already be dead). In the aftermath of WWII there were only 12 death sentences of German Nazi officials resulting from the Nuremberg trials. With all the various tribal and culturally different peoples in Iraq it would be "pay back time" as a lot of old scores may need to be settled. So an objective trial by Iraqis would not be very likely. There are also a number of different Islamic cultures involved (not all Islam is the same just as not all Christian religions are the same) not to mention other various minor ethnic groups (including Iraqi Christians). Actually I would think that dividing the ethnic regions into separate countries would be a possible solution but then the Turks would not be very impressed.

Still a transitional government under US/UK administration much like post WWII would prevent a lot of potential problems such as aid distribution, reconstruction, and of course petroleum exploitation.

- Black Blade

The Invisible Hand

(04/04/2003; 01:14:55 MDT - Msg ID: 100840)

Let's keep our visible or invisible fingers crossed today

The message has apparently disappeared from Jim Sinclair's page (and has been interpreted since Monday by Jim himself as meaning that today would only be the bottom � BTW, what's the meaning of "no later than the Friday close" � Is that before or after the close?), but anyway, here's the GATA reference. The content of Jim's commentary has, except if I am mistaken, not been discussed on the Forum.

[GATA] Urgent advisory from James Sinclair: Gold will assault $400 this week

2:36p ET Monday, March 31, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

James Sinclair has urgent commentary at his Internet
site:

http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.asp

An excerpt: "You should not be influenced by an attempt
over the next three trading days by the Cartel of Common
Interest to try to hold gold back. This effort will not, I
believe, be able to restrain bullion from launching
another attack on the $400 level beginning no later than
the Friday close."

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Black Blade

(04/04/2003; 01:37:53 MDT - Msg ID: 100841)

Global Economy Hit by Negative Data, SARS

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030404/economy_global_3.html
Snippit:

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Even as a U.S. advance on Baghdad raised hopes of a quick end to war, faltering growth in the United States and Europe and Asia's deadly virus suggested things could get worse for a fragile world economy.

Black Blade: Grim economic data everywhere and yet the markets appear to be mesmerized by the Iraq War. When the war ends it should be interesting to see what happens with global equities indices.

Belgian

(04/04/2003; 02:39:17 MDT - Msg ID: 100843)

POG

Bang, bang... and the 327$/Oz Siegfried line was broken !
The gold-club is "playing" and has a very big playing-ground now : 390$ - 300$ = a 30% maneuvering space.
All POG ball-games will therefor be played under the 400$ limits. Gold can be branded / percepted as "weak", again within these 300$-400$ bounderies. Above the 400$, Gold will be called "strong" again. A very creative, psychological warfare (strategy) of the gold-club.

Contained POG is re-enforcing the zero IR + dollar-tenacity/hardness. The gold-club has the permission, from the financial/monetary commanders (FED-ECB), to play further on, in a broader field. In other words...Gold's vibrations are constantly increasing in amplitude ! That means nothing less than building on intrinsic strength and value ! Not a phenomenon that should cause any kind of pessimism about the bright future of Gold's final revaluation. All goes well, fellow goldmeisters...ALL GOES VERY WELL !!!

Clint H

(04/04/2003; 02:56:42 MDT - Msg ID: 100844)

Yellow Metal

Enough! Lets get back to gold.

The Invisible Hand

(04/04/2003; 03:25:02 MDT - Msg ID: 100845)

In the unlikely event of a US-UK victory, the euro will replace the Iraqi dinar

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2913177.stmFrom the BBC
SNIP:
Currency change
Earlier this month a US official said a new currency was needed to introduce some stability and that it was unlikely the Saddam dinar would survive.
"There is no question that the international community will assist the Iraqi interim authority in implementing its currency decision whatever it happens to be, perhaps a new currency, perhaps the old Iraqi currency, the Swiss dinar," he said.
A retired US general and president of US defence contractor SY Coleman, Jay Garner, is leading the US-led reconstruction plans and will be influential in deciding the dinar's future.
A more controversial solution reportedly being touted is to replace the dinars with the US dollars, which could upset Iraqis and neighbouring countries.
==
Could he hatred of the greenback and the reluctance of the people who have called themselves "the liberators" to re-introduce to old Swiss dinar not lead to the euro as a compromise?

Knallgold

(04/04/2003; 03:25:59 MDT - Msg ID: 100846)

What do I miss

He who has the Gold makes the rules,we say.
What rules has the european side made so far re: Iraq?
Will the US do the dirty work for the europeans (securing Iraqs oil,but euros being still the currency for it?).I just can't see it here.So far its simply the one with the gun making the rules ($ for Iraqs oil).

Comments?

Belgian

(04/04/2003; 04:07:35 MDT - Msg ID: 100847)

The liberators and the excluded....

The foreign ministers of Germany, Russia and France (coalition) are meeting after C.Powell's (very small) diplomatic opening, yesterday in Brussels.

The liberator's priority N�:1 is to lower the POO. Target is to increase Iraqi oil-output with 1 million barrils/day, within 2 years ! A much lower POO is desperately needed, because it is the present high OPEC-price that is standing in the way of the financial interventionists ! Low POO, consolidating stockmarkets = re-election and glorification of the entire Bush-administration . That's what the excluded gang of three will discuss. All three have much to lose with the possibility of a rosy Iraqi picture.

The financial/monetary, mega-interventionists, are playing/exploiting these ambiguities in co-ordination with the media/propaganda-machine. The war and plunder-logic is creating the normal divisions and formation of "camps".
This will highten the probabilities of "surprising" turns...increasing IN-stability ...a plague for financials!

Today's Dow futures made wide swings open up to 60 > down to 15 > back up to 50...Yes mega intervention, vibrations with higher amplitudes. POG-fixing very late also.

Note that the POO did not break the 40$ ceiling that it reached for the 3th time in the past three decades. The dollar is therefor to be considered as still in control of the POO, with or without the (unwilling/willing) co-operation of the swing producer Saudi Arabia. Can we (are we correct) in concluding that there is still enough Gold, flowing to the house of Saud or/and that the oil for euro is still a reasonable possibility, even after Iraqi occupation ? Maybe ?

Is it that the ME (Arabian Oil) remains very passive in agreement of the decapitation of the Saddam clan ? And that the real confrontation might be building up in disagreement of the probable confiscation of Iraqi oil and following pressure on Syria, Iran, without making any progress on the ME, road-map (Israel-Palestine) ? Is it in this aftermath that the oil-weapon will be mobilized at its fullest strength ? How will the next chapter look like ?

@ Invisible Hand : James Sinclair seems like a war-correspondent, these days, rather than a highly skilled-experienced, Gold-analyst-authority. Why does James keeps on playing the gold-ball so shortly instead of enlightening us on the Big Goldgame ? Yes, we need a two day close under 327$, to confirm the break. But, POG in � is trending (?) down already, more so than the present �/$ exchange rate changes. For the time being, pluri-interpretable. Maybe on monday, we get more confirmations.

@ All : As a reminder, Pof. Antal Fekete's great essay on the extreme dangers of permanent Interest Rate declines :
* The central bankers as the quartermasters-general of deflation*. Great insights from him ! Catastrophe in the make !

The Invisible Hand

(04/04/2003; 04:52:53 MDT - Msg ID: 100848)

The triumvirate and Russian oil pricing

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2915995.stmBelgian,
You asked in today's msg#: 100847:
Is it in this aftermath that the oil-weapon will be mobilized at its fullest strength ? How will the next chapter look like ?

As I said in yesterday's msg#: 100828
The end of a (political and/or monetary) regime news.bbc.co.uk is announcing in its "latest news" section that the PM of the French regime (the Ancien(t) one?) is saying that the regime of the US of A made a grave error by instituting a war against the Iraqi regime. Why does the French regime make that statement _now_? Since then, I found the URL http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2915499.stm
SNIP:
France was on the side of peace and law, without being pacifist, Mr Raffarin said, "and we think that with this war we've gone beyond the law".

The reference in the URL box is to today's meeting of the triumvirate which you mention:
SNIP
The ministers are expected to use the meeting to press again for the United Nations to be given the central role in reconstructing Iraq.
The meeting comes a day after US Secretary of State Colin Powell said in Brussels that the US-led coalition would take the lead in reconstructing the country, and not the UN.
It also follows a strong attack on the war by French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, who said that the United States had erred "morally, politically and strategically"

As I said today in msg#: 100845, less than a minute before Knallgold asked whether the currency of the warmonger or of the gold possessor (Kev indicated that Belgium's gold is in Fort Knox and has thus probably been leased) made the rules, I indicated that the euro could replace the Iraqi dinar.

How will the next chapter look like? Perhaps the triumvirate could start with Russian oil for euro. In that way the Iraqi oil currency transition would be smoother.

Belgian

(04/04/2003; 05:12:01 MDT - Msg ID: 100849)

@ Knallgold - @ Invisible

The entire Middle East (and the globe) is on a *** DOLLAR_DERIVATIVE *** monetary system !!!!

Arabian oil is swimming in an ocean of Petrodollars. The ME has been dollarized for the past 3 decades of dollar-rule.
But with this Gulf war II, the WHOLE ME-management (control) has taken a complete new dimension. It is full control, occupation and partial confiscation. Tarek Aziz has been stretching on this everywhere he went. The arabs know it and the doubters will see it, soon.

BTW, all Big Iraqi construction firms are excluded for reconstruction (rumor)!

Yes, indeed, if and when Iraq goes under the dollar yoke...it will be interpreted as a next big step in the clash of civilizations and be seen as another humiliation instead of another element of undesired liberation. It will add more oil on the INSTABILITY fire ! During the anti war manifestatitions (Indonesia), I saw many pamphlets with dollar-note imitations on it.

The euro will not be lured into a devastating dollar-war-logic. The euro (old Europ in particular) will keep on working, with offering a valuable dollar-alternative, WITHOUT COERCION !!! No, Sir Knallgold...war shall not prevail ! On the contrary, it will make the peaceful and stable euro, more attractive ! Please, don't make a mistake about this.

And as I.H. suggests...an euro-compromis on Iraq might even be a possibility in a later stadium. Or a dollarized Iraq, exchanging its dollars for euro, the Chinese, Russian way !

The euro is NOT going to blow away the dollar-reserve system with offensive means. The dollar must collapse under its own weght and the present modus operandi of the dollar is a nice guarantee it is doing so. That's why Duisenberg keeps on stressing on price stability within the euro-zone.
PRICE STABILITY !!! In contrast with the dollar's actions !!! And "Stability" is what (distressed) people-nations, hunger for, the most. In other words, In-stability is in the euro's advantage to proliferate and be chosen as more safe than the dollar.

Yes this euro-way of doing is far from spectacular and generating instant results ! Yep, it is the Euroland way !

The general perception (belief) that the euro should be *impotent*, because of its lack of military might, is imvho, a big mistake in the context of the rising, explicit dollar-war-logic. After the Weimar-debacle, Germany is still obsessed with monetary stability ! We (the globe) will experience this again. And, probably, the ME (Arabian oil) first !

Don't forget that the UK, remains "the" joker within the obsessional "coalition" ! WMD "must" be found or Tony will face some real questioning with consequences. The couple of weeks of actual war, are a non-event in proportion of what is to follow, after the invasion/occupation. Remember that Palestine was a Britisch protectorate before the founding of the state of Israel. Arabs overthere have a much bigger sense for history than we, Westerners. Ceasar, Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin and the next one have all come AND GONE !

Do NOT speculate / gamble with Gold !!! Accumulate it discretely as your personal *wealth* while watching all flowers blossoming. FOLLOW THE GIANTS, patiently !!!

Think about the following detail : Gold is increasingly associated with islamism ! No further comments from me.

Belgian

(04/04/2003; 05:21:16 MDT - Msg ID: 100850)

@ Invisible

Saw the J.P.Rafarin debate last night on France 2 with Christine Ockrent. France and Germany (Old Europe), implicitely demand to take the leadership of Euroland and make some moves ! Shroeder did NOT remain silent either at yesterday's C.Powel visit. Point !
Read my last detail in previous post and think very deep !

Au-some

(04/04/2003; 06:14:57 MDT - Msg ID: 100851)

Axis of Evil

Newspaper Article by John Cleese

Bitter after being snubbed for membership in the "Axis
of Evil", Libya, China, and Syria today announced that
they had formed the "Axis of Just as Evil", which they
said would be more evil than that stupid Iran-Iraq-North
Korea axis President Bush warned of in his State of the
Union address.

Axis of Evil members, however, immediately dismissed the
new Axis as having, for starters, a really dumb name.
"Right. They are just as evil, in their dreams!" declared
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. "Everybody knows we're
the best evils . . . best at being evil ...we're the best."

Diplomats from Syria denied they were jealous over being
excluded, although they conceded they did ask if they
could join the Axis of Evil. "They told us it was full,"
said Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. "An axis can't have
more than three countries", explained Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein. "This is not my rule, it's tradition.
In World War II you had Germany, Italy, and Japan in the
evil Axis. So, you can only have three, and a secret
handshake. Ours is wickedly cool."

International reaction to Bush's Axis of Evil declaration
was swift, as within minutes, France surrendered.

Elsewhere, peer-conscious nations rushed to gain
triumvirate status in what has become a game of
geopolitical chairs. Cuba, Sudan and Serbia announced
that they had formed the "Axis of Somewhat Evil", forcing
Somalia to join with Uganda and Myanmar in the "Axis of
Occasionally Evil", while Bulgaria, Indonesia and Russia
established the "Axis of Not So Much Evil Really as Just
Generally Disagreeable".

With the criteria suddenly expanded and all the desirable
clubs filling up, Sierra Leone, El Salvador, and Rwanda
applied to be called the "Axis of Countries That Aren't
the Worst But Certainly Won't Be Asked to Host the Olympics".

Canada, Mexico and Australia formed the "Axis of Nations
That Are Actually Quite Nice But Secretly Have Some Nasty
Thoughts About America", while Scotland, New Zealand and
Spain established the "Axis of Countries That Want Sheep
to Wear Lipstick". "That's not a threat, really, just
something we like to do", said Scottish Executive First
Minister Jack McConnell.

While wondering if the other nations of the world weren't
perhaps making fun of him, a cautious Bush granted approval
for most axis, although he rejected the establishment of the
"Axis of Countries Whose Names End in 'guay", accusing one
of its members of filing a false application. Officials
from Paraguay, Uruguay, and Chadguay denied the charges.

Spartacus

(04/04/2003; 06:20:12 MDT - Msg ID: 100852)

US Congress opposes France, Germany, Russia, Syria role in rebuilding

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4619694∾tion=article
WASHINGTON (AFX) - The House of Representatives late yesterday passed a supplementary budget amendment excluding France, Germany, Russia and Syria from taking part in US-funded reconstruction bids in Iraq, because they oppose the US-led war in Iraq.

Proposed by Minnesota congressman Mark Kennedy and passed by a show of hands, the measure will also bar access by the four countries to information on reconstruction bids. -

Socrates964

(04/04/2003; 07:27:05 MDT - Msg ID: 100853)

Invisible Hand

My interpretation of Jim Sinclair is that he was merely pointing out the occurrence of a cyclical bottom in the gold price on April 4, in line with an approximate 4-month cycle in POG. In this way, we should be starting a 6-8 week up-phase, which may get us back to $400 if we're lucky, even if this currently seems like a tall order.

Cytek

(04/04/2003; 09:30:22 MDT - Msg ID: 100854)

The monopoly game continues

Facts remain. The war IS about oil being priced in dollars. Putting the fear factor in OPEC to keep the old OPEC deal pledge to price oil in dollars.It means Germany and France got slapped and have to work new deals to get euro float peddled for oil. The bullets are the paper fiat. The rise in the dollar may continue until those deals get worked out. It may be awhile. The gold bull has just started and the US-Japan-UK alliance is the new NATO. Australia is clearly in the US camp as is Britian because their tourist industry just got a few more million visitors for the next 5 years for supporting us.
I wonder if the big banks are realizing that if things fall apart, gold is still real money. Will they want a gold supply for a safety net. Not to own it now but the ability to invest on a grand scale if needed. If you can't back your currency with above ground gold then you do it with below ground gold. I expect SA goldstocks to be shorted down in NY. Expect EU banks to buy them up. New lines are being drawn. The UK is going to posture and play both sides. Lip service to the Euro crowd and heavy into dollars but wanting better terms to throw in with the Euro. EU members have to lure the UK away from USA with better terms to make it so good that the UK would risk offending the US Fed, won't happen anytime soon. This is early in the monopoly game, UK won't get it's price for Park Avenue now even if the ECB's have Boardwalk. Meanwhile the FED keeps dipping into the Treasury chest and prints more greenbacks while U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Friday again asked Congress to raise the limit on governmental borrowing, 6.4 Gazillion. Meanwhile the USA has the rest of the Monopoly board.
Seems like the capitulation selloff on some goldstocks may start to slow. Selling volume is drying up. I'm holding through it. May not be much price improvement opportunity. The rebound eventually may be a sudden spike and a very large one. The short attack on gold will probably get over extended. Then the snap back up is something we don't want to miss.

Buena Fe

(04/04/2003; 09:44:50 MDT - Msg ID: 100855)

Cytek

great analysis sir

wild cards;
-worldwide animosity to present regime in washington builds into trade wars, latin america imitates russia and china and begins to un$ize
-us can't attack everyone, the anti$ gang capitilizes on its momentum from what it is calling "an illegal/iligitimate war" and systematically pulls out the tooth picks that prop up the $ market (iraq oil will remain priced in euro, watch the political fight over that one in the un)

euro is no longterm saint, just the next man-system to be given the stage for awhile. gold is king

Belgian

(04/04/2003; 09:52:08 MDT - Msg ID: 100856)

Henry C K Liu - Asiatimes

Is painting a grim picture with a not so worst scenario.

admin

(04/04/2003; 09:59:10 MDT - Msg ID: 100857)

MK's Commentary and Review Updated

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html"Gold's recent decline into the $320s has little or nothing to do with economic fundamentals and everything to do with the background rumble that corresponds prototypically with the madness of crowds -- and we've certainly had our share of madness lately with wild swings in stocks, bonds and yes, the yellow metal as well. The hedge-funds and speculators in general took advantage of war sentiment to push gold to an exaggerated low just as the bulls pushed gold to an exaggerated high at the $390
level. Typically gold's enemies. . . . "

Also, three new Important Links.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/04/2003; 10:09:23 MDT - Msg ID: 100858)

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Daniel Druff

(04/04/2003; 10:32:37 MDT - Msg ID: 100859)

ENCORE!

clapclapclapclapclapMK Comment: All paper currencies are suspect -- not just the U.S. dollar (though it's on-going debasement is probably the most far-reaching in the world economy). Orchestrated currency debasement with its attendant misallocations and consequences has become the economic policy of the day, and something investors need to plug into their portfolio planning no matter where they hold citizenship. Beyond that, David Fuller, whose insightful writings I have followed for nearly 20 years, is absolutely correct in saying that the gold market hasn't even begun to feel the effects of the international scramble for gold being joined by American and European investors. Their entry is likely to severely strain an already limited supply of gold coins and bullion. If you are thinking of buying gold, do it now while things are relatively quiet. You will be glad you did.
*************************************************

Curtain Call

Beyond that, David Fuller, whose insightful writings I have followed for nearly 20 years, is absolutely correct in saying that the gold market hasn't even begun to feel the effects of the international scramble for gold being joined by American and European investors.

Socrates964

(04/04/2003; 10:55:37 MDT - Msg ID: 100860)

Cytek

Like water finding its own level doesn't US arm twisting of oil producers to price in $$$ just provide a huge incentive for Europe/Russia/China to short the $ in order to reduce their local currency oil bill. This also has the end effect of stiffing the Japanese as they will never quite get away with that devaluation of the yen.

IMHO, the point about this whole 'oil war is really a currency war' argument is that it doesn't work in half measures, and certainly doesn't work when you only take over 1/3 of your own import needs (as is the case with Iraq).

What is to stop another oil producer scrupulously observing $ pricing in the spot market but signing private supply contracts with euro clauses short of a full-scale invasion? Or hiding an oil for euros deal by putting a bank in the middle and doing some off-balance sheet swaps.

BTW, Buena Fe, I can't see any S American countries (with the possible exception of Venezuela) indulging in anti-$ bravado since they are too heavily dependent on US capital for it to be in their interests to do so. The most I see happening is a passive shift in the composition of foreign reserves arising from a shift in their export mix.

Buena Fe

(04/04/2003; 11:05:15 MDT - Msg ID: 100861)

the next battle

http://news.ft.com/s01/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1048313453147&p=1012571727092UN spells out limits of US post-conflict rights

By Mark Turner at the United Nations

Published: April 3 2003 19:41 | Last Updated: April 3 2003 19:41

Mark Malloch Brown, head of the United Nations Development Programme, said on Thursday the US would have little choice but to return to the UN in establishing a post-conflict Iraq administration, stressing it had no international right to take over Iraq's oil industry, and warning that rebuilding costs would far exceed current oil revenues...........

Daniel Druff

(04/04/2003; 11:13:54 MDT - Msg ID: 100862)

Sadam Seen On Baghdad Blvd

Wars are very expensive especially when the price is paid by an increase in consumption with a comparable decrease in production...our guys are not planting wheat at the moment.

We are sure to see a few shortages before long, as well as fewer personal appearances by Sadam.

DD

steady

(04/04/2003; 11:47:17 MDT - Msg ID: 100863)

ab532 in nevada

http://www.leg.state.nv.us/rember the debate and vote take place today as soon as the floor session end ther committie will convien to begin debate on the bill. you should be able to listen to the debate at the provided link look on the right side under listen live!

Ag Mountain

(04/04/2003; 11:48:32 MDT - Msg ID: 100864)

Henry C K Liu shows cracks in the dollar as an international institution

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ED05Ak01.htmlApril 4

"There is no doubt the US will prevail over Iraq in the long run. It is merely a question of at what cost in lives, money and time. Thus far, a lot of pre-war estimates have had to be readjusted and a lot of pre-war myths about popular support for US "liberation" within Iraq have had to be re-evaluated. Time is not on America's side, and the cost is not merely financial. America's superpower status is at stake."

and

"There is no point in winning the war to lose the peace. Military power cannot be used without political constraint, which limits its indiscriminate application. The objective of war is not merely to kill, but to impose political control by force. Therein lies the weakest part of the US war plan to date. The plan lacks a focus of what political control it aims to establish."

and

"Only when a nation is already occupied by a foreign power can the theme of liberation by another foreign power be regarded with credibility. A foreign power liberating a nation from its nationalist government is a very hard sell. The US manipulates its reason for invading Iraq like a magician pulling color scarves out a breast pocket. First it was self defense against terrorism, then it was to disarm Iraq of WMD, now it invades to liberate the Iraqi people form their demonic leader. Soon it will be to bring prosperity to the Iraqi people by taking control of their oil, or to save them from their tragic fate of belonging to a malignant civilization."

and

"Globally, two traditional allies of the US, France and Germany, will now want to be treated with more equal status with more political independence. The European Union may even begin to claim the moral high ground in world affairs over the US, promoting more tolerance for diversity of cultural values and historical conditions, over the impositions of US values as a universal standard for the whole world, for which no non-US citizens will be willing to die to implement. Even US citizens may only be willing to die to defend the US, but not to project by force US values all over the world, particularly if this war should show that even with much sacrifice in the form of American soldiers' lives, success remains elusive."

and

"If the war drags on further, or if the economy does not bounce back when the fighting ends, Fed officials have suggested they are prepared to pump money into the economy by reducing interest rates even more than they have done already.

"Despite its institutional role as an central bank that is independent of political influence, the Fed is constitutionally obliged to support the White House on national security issues that affect the economy. Thus Greenspan has not made public any anxiety he may have about the endless costs of war or the risks of disruption to world oil supplies, in aquiescence of Bush's war plans. Greenspan was reported to have been at the White House at least three times in the first 10 days of the war"

and

"Greenspan's reputation was built mostly on his response to financial crises. When the stock market crashed on October 19, 1987, two months after Greenspan became chairman, the Fed lent tens of billions of dollars to financial institutions and pushed down overnight lending rates. The moves flooded financial markets with money, which helped preserve liquidity and restore confidence in the financial system, but it started the bubble economy of the 1990s.

"After the attacks on September 11, 2001, the Fed pumped $100 billion into the monetary system in four days. On September 12 alone, the Fed lent a handful of key banks $46 billion unconditionally. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which runs the Fed's trading operations, flooded the banking system with additional billions of dollars by buying up treasury securities at record volumes throughout the week."

and

"Greenspan and other Fed officials have recently insisted that even if the overnight Fed funds rate is lowered to zero, they still have other tools to stimulate the economy. The Fed can buy longer-term Treasury securities, such as two-year or five-year or even ten-year securities. By paying cash for such securities, the Fed would essentially be pumping money into the economy and pushing long-term interest rates even lower from the current 4.5 percent to 2.5 percent. But that would be virgin territory for the Fed, and officials have acknowledged that the precise impact would be unpredictable."

"The Fed's easy-money policies have already stimulated home buying and refinancing But this easy money has done nothing to rejuvenate business spending, Furthermore, abrupt changes in interest rates, particularly long-term rates, does violence to structured finance (derivatives) which is already exceedingly precarious. The Fed may fall into the trap of setting off an implosions of derivative defaults, what Warren Buffet has called "financial weapons of mass destruction".

and

"This war has succeeded in pushing Russia, France, Germany and China closer, in contrast if not in opposition to US interests worldwide, a significant development with long term implications that are difficult to assess at present. Globalization is dealt a final blow by this war. The airlines are dead and without air travel, globalization is merely a slogan. The freezing of Iraq foreign assets is destroying the image of the US as a financial safe haven."
________________

Not exactly a nurturing environment for continuing international acceptence'strength, or stability for America's biggest franchise and most lucrative export, the dollar.

Buena Fe

(04/04/2003; 12:10:09 MDT - Msg ID: 100865)

apples to apples?

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=EPSBO3DYWPN2WCRBAEKSFFA?type=focusIraqNews&storyID=2510532Human Shields in Baghdad Say They Sense Success
Fri April 04, 2003 12:19 PM ET
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Foreigners acting as "human shields" in Baghdad said on Friday they sense success in their mission to preserve vital facilities in the Iraqi capital.........
........"We are ordinary people who do not want America to rule the world," he said.

no matter if you agree with their politics or not they're brave souls. in a sense goldbugs are of kindred spirit, buying gold in the face of cabal bombardment ... because they don't want the fiaters to rule the world!

go gold

Daniel Druff

(04/04/2003; 12:14:36 MDT - Msg ID: 100866)

Ag Mountain

Mr. C K LiuIs the article written with the understanding that the Dollar is worthy of salvation, if only we hadn't made a mistake? I hate to make a reading commitment hastily.

The world needs a new monetary system. Any attempt to repair this one is a waste of time, imho.
DD

Ag Mountain

(04/04/2003; 13:19:59 MDT - Msg ID: 100867)

D Druff; is the dollar worthy of salvation??

I don't think that question is on the table for anyone to try to judge. What's to judge? What I mean is, looking at a dollar, what's to save? Isn't that like looking at a light-year or a decibel or a millisecond and asking if they are worthy of salvation?

The dollar is nothing to be saved or not saved the way I see it. It's how its used that matters. So if you're asking about whether the dollar-centric reserve system of international banking is worthy of salvation, now we're getting somewhere. No, CK Liu doesn't waste his time on the obvious.

Daniel Druff

(04/04/2003; 13:56:09 MDT - Msg ID: 100868)

Ag Mountain

Well then, I'll give him a read, thanks

Ag Mountain (04/04/03; 13:19:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 100867)
"D Druff; is the dollar worthy of Salvation??"..."So if you're asking about whether the dollar-centric reserve system of international banking is worthy of salvation, now we're getting somewhere. No, CK Liu doesn't waste his time on the obvious."

cockerel1

(04/04/2003; 14:21:54 MDT - Msg ID: 100869)

Middle East Oil may not get to market!

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030404/ts_nm/iraq_mines_gulf_dc&cid=564&ncid=1473If this strategic stretch of water does in fact get shut down for any period of time, I can see Russian oil being a hot commodity.

Mac

Black Blade

(04/04/2003; 14:22:45 MDT - Msg ID: 100870)

Recession signals: Flashing yellow

http://money.cnn.com/2003/04/03/commentary/column_hays/hays/index.htm
The four key indicators of economic health are sagging.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - As expected, the second big economic shoe dropped this week and hit with a resounding thud: another big job loss in March and an even bigger one in February than was previously announced. Add that to news this week of a downturn in manufacturing and what do you get? Two important recession signals flashing the same message: Danger Will Robinson!

1. Employment - the number of jobs created each month
2. Industrial output -- mainly manufacturing
3. Personal income -- think monthly paycheck
4. Business sales -- wholesale and retail

It's worth noting what's NOT on that list:

1. Two quarters of negative GDP (gross domestic product) growth
2. The unemployment rate

First, the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) states explicitly that recession is NOT defined by negative GDP changes. They use the four "coincident" indicators of the economy listed above.

Jared Bernstein, labor economist at the Economic Policy Institute, this morning on a special edition of CNN Money Morning pointed out that the fact that the unemployment rate hasn't risen more recently is that many people have gotten discouraged and just stopped looking for work. It's true that the way the household survey works, if you're out of work, and the government calls you, and you say, "Things look so bad I just didn't go job hunting this week," then you are no longer in the labor force -- because you stopped looking! And if you aren't in the labor force, you can no longer be counted as unemployed. That's why I said the relatively steady unemployment rate may be a red herring.

Black Blade: I generally agree. We are however, still in a recession but that said, if the unemployment rate were accurately tabulated by the BLS the economic picture looks especially grim (often pointed out by John Crudele of the New York Post among others). By a careful reading of BLS report 641 one sees the obvious flaws in the data. BLS Unemployment data trends (even if flawed) can give an indication of how desperate the economic picture is shaping up. Unemployment is definitely rising. Note that few financial media cheerleaders rarely announce the consistent upward revisions of the previous month's unemployment data or discuss the growing problem of "under employment". Kathleen Hays is correct about the usual simpleton response about a recession requiring two successive quarters of negative GDP often touted by overpaid and under educated media economists.

Note: Kathleen Hays used to be the "bond lady" at CNBC. Her typically downbeat reports obviously did not get many "on air" cheers from her colleagues. When she left for CNNfn it was without the usual fanfare and tearful "goodbyes" that others received. She simply "disappeared" faster that an Iraqi dissident. I can't say what her reason for leaving was (perhaps a better deal from a competing network or not being a "team player" maybe?), but when Terry Keenan, also a CNBC alumni left for FOX's "Cashin In" (actually a fairly balanced financial discussion group) there were several "on air" missives and tearful "goodbyes". "Interesting"

Black Blade

(04/04/2003; 14:29:55 MDT - Msg ID: 100871)

Morgan Stanley sees global recession

http://money.cnn.com/2003/04/04/news/morgan_recession.reut/index.htm
Firm expects economic growth at or below 2.5%, citing war, geopolitical uncertainties and SARS.

Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley said Friday it is cutting its forecast for the global economy to recession, citing war, geopolitical uncertainties and most recently, the impact of the SARS virus on Asian growth. Morgan Stanley said it is the first Wall Street bank to forecast world recession. The usual definition for recession in a single country is two consecutive quarters of contraction. However, as the entire world is unlikely to contract simultaneously, economists say low levels of global growth is the equivalent of world recession.

Black Blade: Eat your heart out Barton Biggs. Is one reason he is leaving MS? Interesting that MS is the only banker to see recession when it is only stating the obvious.

Aristotle

(04/04/2003; 14:36:05 MDT - Msg ID: 100872)

Gold buyers should think as a CONSUMER, not a typical modern-day investor/speculator

Up front warning: Friday stuff again, feel free to scroll.

Picture the scene. You're driving your car and the gas gauge is approaching empty. As you scan the roadside all the way to the horizon for one or more of those ubiquitous filling station signs, you note that the prices per gallon are all nearly 15 cents lower than they were the last time you filled up.

Do you react to this circumstance with anger, "Those b*stards! The ESF and the cabal are sticking to the little guy!" or do you feel pleased, "Hey hey! Looks like I caught a break today!"? Do you watch the price of gasoline as a consumer, or as an investor?

I think it's safe to say that most people who are regular buyers of gasoline are of like mind on this point: getting more gasoline for your money is a positive thing.

Routine buyers of Gold see it the same way. "Gold is cheaper this week? Great! More Gold is better than less Gold."

Whenever I see some whining among internet talkers about freshly fallen Gold prices, I think to myself, "Hmmmmmmm... no discernible brain... and yet it can use a computer and emote!" I feel comfortable being frank about this without offending anyone here because most USAGOLDers appear to know the score.

At its most basic, there are two phases in a person's life:

1) Sunlight. The productive portion in which you build and accumulate wealth as a capable individual.

2) Twilight. The portion in which you are not productive -- infirm or in easy retirement -- and sustain yourself upon the wealth and resources that you acquired while the sun was shining on your shoulders.

Most *most* MOST people in the wide world that you'll ever encounter who are mindful of Gold will have the right perspective as a consumer, not an investor. They welcome the intermittant occasions of cheap Gold because they recognize that more wealth is better than less, that more Gold in their hands is better than less Gold.

They (we) can comfortably hold that perspective because we understand that the greater portion of our lives are conducted in the Sunlight -- being productive. We build our houses and build up our estates (with Gold) and feed our bellies and drive our cars, trying to get the most out of our money all along the way. Then, when you enter the Twilight hours, having lived a good (see the Greek Aristotle on full meaning of "good") life under the sun your destiny will be secure with ample resources of wealth to draw upon.

Over the course of your lifetime, you'll find that your digital/papery money is very good and spendible in the short term, so spend it as regularly as you earn it toward building up your longterm tangible wealth to function as your Twilight fund. Like gasoline, the price of Gold will see-saw on its way up over time even as your money's value see-saws on its way down with sudden inexplicable shocks and all.

The good folks of the world who follow that program are on the whole happier and more secure than had they not. Ask anyone who has ridden out national currency crises with their savings safely in the form of Gold.

I think it's a safe assumption that the internet talkers who whine of intermittant low Gold prices are examples of folks who didn't live a good life in the sun, and find themselves now standing at the plate with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. They've only got a few pitches to work with and are desperately swinging for the fence while cursing the arrival of any curve balls. Be that as it may, Gold is indeed the best bet to serve up a homerun ball, so I certainly wish these people good luck to still be standing and swinging when it comes. But I don't care for their immature belly-aching.

On the other side of the field, the good, mature and professional players have been positioning themselves and building toward the happy outcome throughout the WHOLE game. Take control of your own destiny as part of your life's gameplan. Acquire wealth early, acquire wealth often. Spend wisely and get the most for your money. After all, you're basically fueling up for the Twilight hours of your own choosing.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

steady

(04/04/2003; 14:39:16 MDT - Msg ID: 100873)

the debate has started.

its live now via the net!

Black Blade

(04/04/2003; 14:39:44 MDT - Msg ID: 100874)

States consider raising beer taxes to help balance the budget

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2003-04-03-beer-tax_x.htm
Snippit:

PHILADELPHIA (AP) � With cash tight and bills looming, legislators around the country are turning to neighborhood pubs to help them drown their sorrows: At least 19 states are considering plans to boost beer taxes. Rep. Phil English, R-Pa., who has been fighting for a reduction in the $18-a-barrel federal beer tax, said brewers will simply pass the cost to customers. "It is typically working families who will use beer, and they are going to be the ones stuck paying this tax," English said. "The governor's rich Philadelphia donors go home and have a scotch. Why shouldn't their taxes be raised?" At least 23 states have considered raising beer taxes in the past two years, but only a handful of proposals have passed, according to The Beer Institute, an industry lobbying group. Wyoming lawmakers shot down a proposal to raise their 2-cent beer tax, the lowest in the nation, in January.

Black Blade: Bring on pestilence, war, and famine � but raise the price of BEER! God have mercy! Now that's a tragedy! Thankfully I live in Wyoming. Whew � I dodged a bullet on that one.

Black Blade

(04/04/2003; 14:55:27 MDT - Msg ID: 100875)

Trading like lemmings

http://money.cnn.com/2003/04/03/markets/correllation/index.htm
The pack-like behavior of stock traders has reached extremes not seen since 1987.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The Tilt-A-Whirl has nothing on the global markets lately, where the speed with which traders have been shifting positions has been enough to make anybody's stomach spin. One moment the war is going poorly, sending cash pouring into safe-haven assets, like government bonds and gold, jacking the price of oil higher, hammering stocks and the U.S. dollar. The next, the war is going well again, and all these "war trades" that have been put on get suddenly unwound. With traders running from one side of the boat to the other, one can hardly say that global markets are on an even keel. Making matters even worse, the traders in different markets are all taking cues from one another, creating a magnifying effect on each move. Oil goes up so stocks go down so bonds go higher so oil goes up some more.

Black Blade: Lemmings indeed. The winners tend to "cut against the grain" and as far as contrarian investing is concerned gains are slow but sure (as long as fundamentals are observed and value is key). In the current market that makes precious metals a screaming buy. At least gives one a bit more bang for the buck if dollar cost averaging into a precious metals position. Obviously precious metals investors are definitely not Lemmings.

steady

(04/04/2003; 15:02:06 MDT - Msg ID: 100876)

augh

augh right in th emiddele of the debate im told our net work will going off line for 30 min dangit to all get out aughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

Black Blade

(04/04/2003; 15:11:31 MDT - Msg ID: 100877)

Fears of a steeper decline for the dollar

http://www.iht.com/ihtsearch.php?id=92066&owner=(The%20New%20York%20Times)&date=20030403165915
Snippit:

For many economists, the dollar's jagged yearlong slide is a side effect of an inevitable contraction in the huge U.S. trade deficit. But current economic and political conditions are making the process more perilous than it might otherwise have been. Recently, the dollar's exchange rates have bounced up and down with news from the Iraq war. But the dollar's overall trend in the past 12 months has been downward. A deeper decline could be on the way. The run-up to war hurt the U.S. economy, and fears of similar conflicts to follow could deter foreigners from holding dollar-denominated securities. With less demand for the securities, there would be less need for dollars. The falling dollar has helped some U.S. companies to increase their exports, but not enough to counteract the effects of a middling global economy.

According to a report by Morgan Stanley, foreign investors' demand for Treasury securities suddenly slackened. And well before the possibility of a war in Iraq began to concern investors, corporate scandals pushed foreigners to shift their portfolios away from American securities, said a senior executive of a major European bank. In addition to the changes in portfolios, the pace of foreigners' direct investment in the United States has slowed. All U.S. companies could suffer if foreign capital being pulled out is not replaced by domestic savings. The Treasury also needs foreigners to stay interested in dollar-denominated securities. Estimates by the Bond Market Association, a trade group, foreigners hold about 35 percent of the nation's outstanding debt. The Treasury's borrowing requirements seem likely to balloon as a result of the Iraq war, the sluggish economy and President George W. Bush's tax cuts. If demand for that debt falls at the same time, interest rates could rise.

Black Blade: The US dollar is still grossly overvalued even after a 20% drop but remains propped up by foreign monetary policies where domestic currencies are purposely weakened (most notably in Japan) for a competitive edge in shrinking export markets. Once the war is concluded the question is whether investors will take a serious view of the deteriorating global economy or find some other dubious reason to keep investing in US assets? It should get rather interesting if we keep getting more grim economic data like we did this week.

Black Blade

(04/04/2003; 15:25:19 MDT - Msg ID: 100878)

Consumers Digging Deep To Save Money

http://www.indystar.com/print/articles/1/033583-5841-031.html
Snippit:

Consumers are feeling the pinch of slower income growth and sharply higher fuel costs. Many are worried not only about the war but also about their devastated retirement accounts and job security. Like a tight boot at the end of a long march, the economy's post-bubble malaise is starting to chafe. People with well-paying jobs -- who a year ago were spending cash they received when they refinanced their mortgages -- now are forgoing affordable luxuries. "Sentiment is influenced by things like income, wealth and the employment rate, but also by general anxiety about the war with Iraq," said Ben Herzon, senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers. Will a decisive victory offer a cure? Economists are divided, but many including Goolsbee predict the conflict will do little to jolt the economy back to life.

Black Blade: The consumer is tapped out and as consumer spending is two thirds of the economy, it does not look good. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months� expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

Aristotle

(04/04/2003; 15:26:10 MDT - Msg ID: 100879)

Black Blade, please teach me some speaking English (not political English!)

Rep. Phil English, R-Pa. said, "It is typically working families who will use beer..."

Use? **USE**???!

What on earth do working families use it for? To fill swimming pools?

Sheeeeeesh. It that some kinda warped political correctness? Whatever happened to *drinking* the stuff?

Pardon me while I *use* a refreshing glass of lemonade... to whet my thirst for the beer I'm about to drink!

I guess Gold and beer have something in common. You shortchange yourself if you don't know their proper use.

Here's a mnemonic device to help us all out.

"Stink like beer? Drink it here.
Stink like Gold? Drink it later."

Gold. Good for a lifetime. Get you some. --- Ari

Black Blade

(04/04/2003; 15:40:06 MDT - Msg ID: 100880)

Japan Gives Banks More Time to Avoid Nationalization

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aoiRb5px83tw&refer=asia
Snippit:

Tokyo, April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Japan gave banks more time to prove they don't need to be nationalized, a plan investors say is too vague to bolster confidence after the top five lenders disclosed almost $30 billion of net losses. The government owns preferred stock in 23 banks after it invested 7 trillion yen ($59 billion) in three years to shore up capital eroded by bad loans. Converting the securities into common shares would make it the biggest shareholder in most banks. Failure to pay dividends for two straight years on preferred stock owned by the government may trigger conversion, the Financial Services Agency said. It didn't have a timeline before, saying it might take stakes in banks with deteriorating finances. Banks that have capital levels of half the minimum set by regulators might also be taken over, the agency said.

Black Blade: Let's see � An insolvent banking sector, banks on the verge of being nationalized, the end of unlimited insurance guarantees on savings accounts, the MOF throwing away trillions of yen in a desperate bid to weaken the Yen, an economy mired in a 20 year deflationary depression, rising unemployment, etc. It would not be surprising to see Japanese buying up gold again in "Japanese Gold Rush � part 2".

Black Blade

(04/04/2003; 15:45:59 MDT - Msg ID: 100881)

Ari - Beer "Use"

I missed that one. Perhaps it was a Freudian slip referring to "use beer" to drown their sorrows over recent economic woes maybe? Cheers!

- Black Blade

BTW, I have a few Negra Modelos on ice for when I return from my daily jaunt to the gym. I will "use" some to soothe my internal aches and pains. ;-)

Hey any excuse will do right?

Black Blade

(04/04/2003; 16:04:00 MDT - Msg ID: 100882)

IMF sees chance of U.S. housing bust

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/115793_housing04.shtml
Boom in market could turn to slump

Snippit:

WASHINGTON -- One more threat for the fragile economy: America's booming housing market could be headed for a bust. In a survey of global economic dangers, the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday that the housing market, after two years of record sales and strong increases in home prices, could be about to slump. The study said that based on experience, a housing bubble in an industrial country has a 40 percent chance of being followed by a sharp drop in prices. It did not explicitly forecast a bust, but did raise concerns, especially because past housing declines have been associated with periods of global economic weakness, such as the U.S. recessions in 1991-92 and 1981-82. The IMF study contrasts with Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's belief that the U.S. housing industry is not headed for a sharp falloff in sales or prices.

Black Blade: Signs of a possible "real estate bubble" bust have been showing up over the last few months. Housing prices have risen faster than incomes and that alone is unsustainable.

Now off to the gym and then to tackle those Negra Models. To "use" for "medicinal purposes" � I swear! (wink wink).

TownCrier

(04/04/2003; 16:22:06 MDT - Msg ID: 100883)

You can't afford to live on past promises when change is ever a whisper away

http://news.nasdaq.com/news/newsStory.aspx?&cpath=20030404\ACQDJON200304041738DOWJONESDJONLINE000667.htmNEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Treasury Department is considering dropping the defunct 30-year bond as a key pension benchmark, but hasn't indicated how or when it will act.

Replacing the benchmark could cut the amount of benefits employees receive by billions of dollars, depending on the new rate chosen. If a change doesn't occur this year, however, some companies may have to contribute millions more to their pension plans.

The Treasury Department stopped issuing 30-year bonds in 2001, but the remaining bonds continue to trade. A 1974 federal law known as the Employee Retirement Income Security Act says corporate pension funds must use the 30-year rate. A stopgap measure Congress put into place in 2002 to let funds get around using the rate expires this year.

-----(see url for article)-----

What can you count on these days when bonds can come and go and rules can change against your favor as easily as otherwise? Gold. Contact Centennial for a diversification strategy that's right for you.

R.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/04/2003; 16:38:28 MDT - Msg ID: 100884)

In bookstores it retails for $14.95. But you know the author! Get it here for $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

steady

(04/04/2003; 17:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 100885)

nevada silver coins bill ab 532

the committie discussed this bill for over an hour. no vote was taken! before next friday , the committie will , on the floor during a floor session will go behind the bar and vote on whether to bring the bill to the floor or not.
yes the state wants to raise no tax revenue which they would get by issusung these silver coins. also there was discussion of having a local currency/money in case of a terroristic attack leaves the current monetary system in disarray.

but the real shocker is this and ill let teh cat out of the bag here.

IDAHO HAS A SIMILAR BILL!! YOU WONT FIND THIS INFO ANYWHERE ELSE. Mr. horton said Idaho was trying to keep it on the quiet!
two states know for precious metals are taking the lead. im on there bandwagaon, there is plenty of room, even for sceptics like aristotle!

R Powell

(04/04/2003; 18:02:19 MDT - Msg ID: 100886)

Steady

Interesting. Thanks for keeping an ear open for those of us whose computers are deaf.

Thanks also to M.K. for the renewed reports. Your command of language along with your lifelong dealings with precious metals combined with your unique viewpoint and, may I guess, personal contacts, should produce valuable reading for us all. Also, I always smile when the mailbox holds a "News and Views".

Friday again already?
Happy Weekend!
Rich

Daniel Druff

(04/04/2003; 19:20:07 MDT - Msg ID: 100887)

steady

Membeship growing in the AB532 SocietySir steady, Usul, Daniel Druff, R Powell but no Aristotle...yet.

DD

21mabry

(04/04/2003; 20:13:29 MDT - Msg ID: 100888)

1880

I was doining some research and ran across an advertisment from 1880.A dentist was advertising teeth pulling 1 dollar a tooth, fillings were 1 dollar per gold filling,50 cents per silver filling. Just thought it was interesting.

Black Blade

(04/04/2003; 21:13:25 MDT - Msg ID: 100889)

Battle of Baghdad - "Game On"

FOX reports that US troops of the 3rd Division are in the city of fighting in an industrial area on the east side. Reporters assigned (or that "embedded"? Hmmm...) to the troops are reporting from the front. Tanks and Bradley armored vehicles are apparently waxing Iraqi Republican Guards on their way to city center. US Marines apparently are moving into the city from the west as well. A-10 Thunderbolts are giving cover. Special Forces reportedly have been inside Baghdad for a few days and targeting Iraqi positions. "Game On"

- Black Blade

Mr Gresham

(04/04/2003; 22:26:15 MDT - Msg ID: 100890)

Clink! Clink!

Henri, you still out there?

Don't forget to ring the register, everyone. Heard the beginning today of another excuse for someone not paying me; just the small outcropping of a mass phenom to grow even more.

Fiat currency is welching on the biggest scale, guys in the best suits playing anyone for whatever trust they'll give, until they have the most goodies hidden in their bag, then off they go... (Anyone -- R Powell? -- ever sub in construction and watch all the ways GCs got out of paying you, when you were young and naive? Now, I'm just old and cynical -- sighhhhh...)

I will gladly pay you Tuesday (and in Iraqi dinars) for a hamburger today.

Waverider

(04/05/2003; 07:25:40 MDT - Msg ID: 100891)

The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/ED05Dj02.htmlSnip:
"The US economy is on the verge of collapse, and the whole world is going down with it. Or so Richard Duncan would have us believe. His new book The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures offers an unabashedly alarmist view of the imminent unraveling of the global economy - an outcome he argues has now become unavoidable. And as a longtime financial analyst in Asia who predicted the impending collapse of the Thai economy as early as 1993 and worked as a consultant for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during the height of the Asian crisis, he knows a thing or two about financial crashes."

Waverider: Richard Duncan's book "The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures may be of interest.

silvercollector

(04/05/2003; 08:16:08 MDT - Msg ID: 100892)

Aristotle

Your 'Sunlight/Twilight' post is poetic, easy to understand, easy to appreciate. May I quote a passage?

"At its most basic, there are two phases in a person's life:

1) Sunlight. The productive portion in which you build and accumulate wealth as a capable individual.

2) Twilight. The portion in which you are not productive -- infirm or in easy retirement -- and sustain yourself upon the wealth and resources that you acquired while the sun was shining on your shoulders."

..and..

"They (we) can comfortably hold that perspective because we understand that the greater portion of our lives are conducted in the Sunlight -- being productive. We build our houses and build up our estates (with Gold) and feed our bellies and drive our cars, trying to get the most out of our money all along the way. Then, when you enter the Twilight hours, having lived a good (see the Greek Aristotle on full meaning of "good") life under the sun your destiny will be secure with ample resources of wealth to draw upon."

Very nice....very clear. Utopian.

However, being a J6P and a John Doe I have a question. As I passed through my 20's and entered my early 30's I realized that my Twilight years were in jeopardy. I did the right things, I started a 'savings' program, I didn't spend foolishly, I sought value and invested in hard assets. As I rolled into my early 40's I began to realize that I was going to fall short of my Twilight goals. A sense of despair has set in as I reach my 43rd year. As paycheck to paycheck passes I cannot and will not successfully rollover into the Twilight zone.

With the irrational dollar exurberance since '95/'96 even I, a newbie to financial affairs understand that this tangent cannot continue forever.

With this war priced to perfection (on success) I felt the need to leverage as the sense of despair begins to mutant into panic. Please understand, as I restate my point above, that I must leapfrog several steps in order to enter the Twilight zone.

I have borrowed on equity and run lines of credit to the max in order to accomodate this goal. Foolish perhaps from your point of view, a necessary evil fom mine.

As I have listened to your messages for a long time I can really say that I enjoy them, however I sense that you are in the pleasant position to flaunt your successes both past and present and you have little concern for the 'little guy'. You have many times expressed a self-admitted attitute that you are above the need to 'sweat it out'. You have said this not I.

I ask you, as a 'senior' on this forum to allow latitude for the 'little guy'. Please understand that following "in the footsteps of giants" is not an easy task and occasionally we get stepped on and the quest ends. As you have secured entry into the Twilight zone many of us see the corridors closing and it is indeed frightening.

If you are a true warrior please get off your 'golden' horse and help a fallen soldier. I fear as I bleed to death on this frozen tundra you will ride into the sunset and I will close my eyes for a last time.

Cometose

(04/05/2003; 10:13:40 MDT - Msg ID: 100893)

No NEWS IS GOOD????? NEWS????

News black out on drudge this morning ; Is this from lack of interst on a Saturday morning or is there something else afoot?

Mr Gresham

(04/05/2003; 10:21:52 MDT - Msg ID: 100894)

Richebacher on bad economics

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/richebacher040703.htmland stock market scamming.

Mr Gresham

(04/05/2003; 10:48:41 MDT - Msg ID: 100895)

silvercollector

Eloquent and points well made. Unfortunate you did the right thing and bought PMs "too early" but consider that 100% gains in a year is the same as 3% annual growth over 20 years or so. With both POS/POG and interest rates suppressed below rational market levels, you are making, or holding, a good risk/reward position. I won't say "Don't despair", for these are desperate times, but keep your plan working, and don't sell unless you have a better plan.

As always, attention to your career (and above that your health and relationships) are the best avenues to future wealth. Like the stock market gamblers of 1999, we distract ourselves more than ever in this era with dreams of "the big score." Ari presents the more classic, if somewhat caustic, contraire to that fantasy.

Who knows -- maybe he's always been that way, or maybe he learned the hard way, too, and is sharing wisdom gained expensively?

OTOH, in a MacArthuresque mood that comes over me at times like this, I want to also say "There is no substitute for making lots of money, quickly, with the least painful effort, and then hanging onto it."

Obviously, PMs are intended, going forward, to be a great way to hang on to it. Whether they'll also be a good way to make more of it remains to be seen. And if you get any good ideas about accomplishing the first part of my prescription above, just let me know. (I've got my secret decoder ring right here, so you can post it -- in our special code -- right here (!!!) on the USAGold forum and then I'll go and do it! ;)

Daniel Druff

(04/05/2003; 12:17:08 MDT - Msg ID: 100896)

Waverider

Long on Causes and Consequences, short on CuresWaverider: Richard Duncan's book "The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures may be of interest.

David Peters, book reviewer: "The first of his two policy suggestions to mitigate the coming collapse touches on this issue, advocating a global minimum wage, enforced by international treaty."

A global minimum wage is sure to straighten everything out, ha!

"Duncan's other policy suggestion is to create a global central bank (he nominates the International Monetary Fund for the job), which could engineer a controlled increase in the global money supply by allocating new reserves according to criteria that could include development priorities."

Oh, this is really good...a global minimum wage with the IMF in charge, BRILLIANT! [To think that people actually believe this type of thing, amazing.]

Thanks for the chuckle,
DD

R Powell

(04/05/2003; 13:59:41 MDT - Msg ID: 100897)

Payment // Mr Gresham

The readiness of payment, as you know, is often one of the first signs of a slowdown in the construction business. I ask for nothing up front but for payment in full (labor only) upon completion (same day for concrete work!). No problem with my regulars so far but the Ready-mix company I prefer is not accepting any new business accounts, just COD orders.

You mentioned.....

"Fiat currency is welching on the biggest scale, guys in the best suits playing anyone for whatever trust they'll give, until they have the most goodies hidden in their bag, then off they go... (Anyone -- R Powell? -- ever sub in construction and watch all the ways GCs got out of paying you, when you were young and naive? Now, I'm just old and cynical -- sighhhhh...)

I will gladly pay you Tuesday (and in Iraqi dinars) for a hamburger today."

I have gladly passed up work in the past whenever the payment schedule involved waiting, especially upon the acceptable work performance of others sometimes necessary to reach a certain bank determined point of project completion. I reached that cynical stage before I reached old age but now that I have sucessfully attained both, I can wryly state that my insistence on payment-in-full upon completion is based on the same human deceit and frailty that is the major compeling basis for physical gold and silver hoarding. Whether by intentioned deceit or by that misfortune implied in the expression "best laid plans of mice and men", the fact remains that none of us is always correct in the assessment of any situation, whether work related or of a financial nature. IMHO now might be an excellent time to "buy" into the safety of gold and silver while, at the same time, investing in an appreciating financial sector. The coming rise in the fiat POG and POS will reflect a depreciating dollar, negative interest returns (great Hamilton essay this week), the unveiling of a severe supply/demand deficit (especially in silver) and perhaps even the madness of crowds. It will be most enjoyable to watch.
Happy weekend
Rich

R Powell

(04/05/2003; 15:35:09 MDT - Msg ID: 100898)

Silvercollector

You are by no means alone when you describe debt....

"With this war priced to perfection (on success) I felt the need to leverage as the sense of despair begins to mutant into panic. Please understand, as I restate my point above, that I must leapfrog several steps in order to enter the Twilight zone.

I have borrowed on equity and run lines of credit to the max in order to accomodate this goal. Foolish perhaps from your point of view, a necessary evil fom mine."

Rich: I fear there are too many of us in this same situation. As for myself, I did not deny myself or my family enough of what I could not pay for without using the plastic debt card.

However, I do not share your anticipation for retirement. Rather, I thought I'd simply slow down as age requires. Lucky is the man who enjoys his work and blessed is the one who both enjoys and is well paid for his labor. At your age, the possibilities are numerous. Count your blessings rather than any missed pie-in-the-sky. Also, if I may, a warning...I can relate to your reference to leverage but exercise caution, it can work both ways if not properly hedged.

If the views of so many expressed here are correct, our debt may be alleviated by Uncle Sam's printing presses. If/when the minimum wage is $40.00/hour and a cup of coffee is $8.50, then our debt becomes less. Can't happen? How many of us can remember that cup of coffee for $0.10, a large candy bar for $0.05, a gallon of gas for $0.19 and the minimum wage at $1.25? Aristotle (imho) is right in thinking that money is just a means of exchange, the price of precious metals will adjust accordingly. Bernanke and his out-of-control paper money creation may deflate our debt for us while also instigating a market mania in metals.
Are you sour on silver? The leverage here might be greater than anywhere else but I'll certainly grant you that it may require the patience of Job to cash in. Would gold be a disappointment at only a $1000/ounce in, say, five years? After all, you have seven more years before you're only half as old as a century.:>)
Rich

cockerel1

(04/05/2003; 15:52:18 MDT - Msg ID: 100899)

Some interesting history regarding Gold.

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm Suggest everyone pour yourself a drink, click on the link, sit back and invest about 45 minutes of your valuable time by listening to this very interesting and enlightening interview. You will not be disappointed, I promise.

Scroll down to
Saturday
March 8
Click on Ferdinand Lips.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/05/2003; 16:30:20 MDT - Msg ID: 100900)

Your understanding of gold may well be your North Star as you navigate the future -- $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

a nation of one

(04/05/2003; 18:12:45 MDT - Msg ID: 100901)

real estimate of the nation's wealth

People commonly assume that the minute-by-minute stock market quote on a stock represents the real value of all shares of that stock. But no. For every share that is traded, there are many more shares of those same stocks, that did not, and could not, trade at that price. Only those shares which actually traded at the cited price are worth that price. If all shares were offered for sale at the same time, none would have any price. It is this sea of held shares that people assume have a value which, in fact, are only presumed to be worth what someone else was actually able to sell his shares for. The shares that were not sold have no other value. In this way stocks are false, like dollars. Confidence is what underlies both. Dollars are good so long as people believe they are good. Stocks have value just so long as people believe they have value. At some point a price may be reached at which no shares will sell. At some point some number of shares may be offered which will fetch no price.

Henri

(04/05/2003; 18:22:33 MDT - Msg ID: 100902)

Mr. Gresham

Still here and clinking.

Depated a few days due to the offtrak dialogue but have returned as a browser only for the time being.

Cometose

(04/05/2003; 18:32:00 MDT - Msg ID: 100903)

http://www.cyclesman.com

I am not a very good cook but some of the things that I am very good a cooking , I take pride in making....

One of them is blackeyed peas....started on a batch last night and I ruined them .....they were burn't early ...not enough water ....tried to salvage them ....

So I began another batch today ....all the ingredients are important so that you get the final desired result which is only verified by taste.....I put bacon grease and salt in my peas....Today , I got passed the burning stage and then began the bacon phase. I began with four peices of bacon .. added them and the salt ....It turned out to be not enough bacon or salt so ....I got out tree more peices of bacon , added them and added some more salt....
It's an old southern recipe....Theres on old wives tale that eating blackeyed peas on New Years day is lucky....

I said all that to say this .....THis isn't new years day but I did make Black eyed peas today and while I was doing that in the kitchen next to my computer area/ laundry room I was taking in an article that makes me feel very lucky...
I highly recommend the article ; It is the second hour of the Financial Sense Online broadcast of today featuring Tim Wood .......Listen to the whole segment( which describes in some depth what he is doing and then go to his web site and
look at his record. He may have uncoverd something ...that may be vital .....for understanding and timing ...technical analysis..... judge for yourself....
He's making some interesting forecasts for the short term and longer term for many sectors....

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/05/2003; 18:39:11 MDT - Msg ID: 100904)

Have you seen MK's latest update?

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html
Click link for "MK's Gold Commentary & Review"

"For a very long time, I have warned that the collective beggar-thy-neighbor devaluation policies of the major industrialized nations would lead to wholesale currency depreciation against goods and services in ALL nations across the boards. Co-incident to that, we will see a rise in citizen gold demand internationally. Already during the last quarter of 2002 and the first quarter of 2003, we have seen a strong surge in demand at USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals as a result of investor determination to avoid the loss of real asset value. These new buyers are telling us that their interest in gold has more to do with concerns over the value of the dollar, inadequate return on savings instruments, and continued weakness in equities' markets than it does the war in Iraq -- an important consideration for the long run..." (more)

R Powell

(04/05/2003; 19:04:16 MDT - Msg ID: 100905)

Silver

http://www.leg.state.nv.us/72nd/bills/ab/ab532.html I found this on another site. I don't know if it has been posted yet or not. Also, I haven't been there yet so have no comments whatsoever. Heck, I don't even know if it works.

mikal

(04/05/2003; 19:05:37 MDT - Msg ID: 100906)

@Cometose

Re: "He may have uncovered something that may be vital" and "He makes some interesting forecasts"
I hope you or someone can do a small favor, a short review?

R Powell

(04/05/2003; 19:16:01 MDT - Msg ID: 100907)

USAGold CPM Inc.

Refering to gold you mentioned......

"Already during the last quarter of 2002 and the first quarter of 2003, we have seen a strong surge in demand at USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals as a result of investor determination to avoid the loss of real asset value."

This doesn't surprise me at all but it's good to hear your official confirmation. I'm glad that business is very good in gold. I hear many individual reports about the availability of silver in different small locations. May I ask if the silver business has also picked up? It would not surprise me if it has not but would encourage me if it has.
Thanks,
Rich

mikal

(04/05/2003; 19:29:03 MDT - Msg ID: 100908)

@R.Powell

Re: Nevada coin bill
That was posted. I'd like to see it happen. There was discussion here this past week on this subject for several days leading up to the live broadcast of the committee meeting. Someone said the next step was delayed or postponed. I also heard that Idaho and possibly another state are definitely going try this same tactic. Yeeehaww, and GOLD COINS could be next.
Now all they have to do is start another gold rush to employ the new-depression babes, boomers and beaten-down pioneers. I have it on good authority that Americans will soon be fixing to leave big cities, and I'm banking on it.
Give me a good agricultural and mining boom anyday! With a little influx of homesteaders, farmers, entrepreneurs, miners and grizzled prospectors!
If the Mexicans can cross enmasse, imagine if armed and hungry Americans take squatters rights on "protected wilderness", forests, habitats, etc. Perhaps after federal cutbacks and downsizing, forest rangers will share duty in the cities and towns.

Cometose

(04/05/2003; 19:55:07 MDT - Msg ID: 100909)

Technical analysis

http://www.cyclesman.comTim Wood has been doing a little superimposing 4year bull and bear market cycles charts over seasonal cyclical trends in dollar , bonds , dow , s&p and gold......dollar studies confirming , dow and s&p studies....
studies may be indicating tracks that may be followed.

He thinks that the October low was not the 4 year cycle bottom , but that we have and extended cycle this time which has happened before. Nonconfirmation in lack of 90% down days followed by 90% up day and another indicator that failed to bear out this as the low.... All bear markets since 1896 have been 33-37 % of bull market cycles in their time duration....He marks the last bull beginning in 1974....
indicating present bear to last till between 2006-2010.

If the bear market low is not confirmed in the next month by new highs , we're likely to go hard down on the dollar and the stock indexes....through the summer....with the 90% down days and a reversal that again takes us straight us ( he says this one will be buyable but will still be in the confines of a bear market rally.....Timing of rebound is intersting as a consequence of coinciding with ELECTION TIME......As I listened , I became more fascinated with this man's work and confidence . THen I looked at his record of published articles relating to forecasts he has made related to the research tools that he has put together and am a bit amazed........probably worth taking a closer look........

TownCrier

(04/05/2003; 20:00:24 MDT - Msg ID: 100910)

In his "Important Links" MK called attention to Puplava's latest Storm Watch

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/puplava/20030329.htmlA good overview on behavior of market trends and investment strategies. In this commentary you will find the following...

(excerpts)

In the last half century, there have been four key primary trends and investment themes where an investor could have done exceedingly well as an investor. If all that you did was to find these trends, get on board and ride them out, your investment decisions would be simplified.

On a similar note, it is what has made Warren Buffett the second richest man in the world. ... Maybe it is difficult to replicate Buffett's genius in ferreting out great business franchises, but it is possible to duplicate another element of his success, which is patience. If you can spot a new bull market or a new primary trend and then get on board and ride it until it is completed, that is how big fortunes are made.

The Establishment's Bias Against Metals

They're Not Prepared
Remember that when a new trend first emerges, it is most likely to be discredited by the establishment. Wall Street has no interest in seeing gold and silver bullion or precious metals equities rise in price. The government has no strong love of gold because it discredits its own paper. A rise in gold and silver serve as a barometer of investor fear or distrust trust in paper assets. So don't expect any encouragement from Wall Street or Washington.

All you can expect from the establishment is disinformation and discouragement. They have a stake against metals. Wall Street is in the business of selling paper and Washington is in the business of printing paper.

The Street doesn't follow the sector and isn't set up to handle a major bull market in precious metals equities. The precious metals equity sector is too small. Total market capitalization of all the world's metals stocks is somewhere around $70-$80 billion or about a third of the market cap of Microsoft. There aren't enough precious metals equities to make it worthwhile to follow the sector. The commodity markets in actual bullion are even smaller.

Positioning Against Metals
In addition to no interest in the sector, the financial industry has taken positions against the metals sector. In the commodity markets commercials hedgers have made fortunes shorting the metals still and do so today.

This is evident in viewing the major short positions in both gold and silver and the monster derivative positions on the books of major bullion banks such as J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup.

The Dis-Advantaged Advantage

There are many in the gold camp that are disgusted by this short selling. They shouldn't be. Just as investors have the right to sell short stocks, investors or institutions have the same right to sell short gold and silver equities short. I say God bless them for doing so. ... I love the fact that they are doing so, because in effect they are subsidizing my purchases.

If you believe as I do that precious metals are in a new bull market and that this new bull market is still in its early formative stage, then you want to be accumulating shares and bullion. When you having willing accomplices that are dumb enough to subsidize your purchases, then why not take advantage of their offer? Do you want to wait until the new bull market becomes obvious to everyone?

In the last great bull market in equities the vast majority of investors bought into the market after 1995. They became investors only during the final third of the bull market.

Bull markets have three phases to them. The first phase occurs when insiders and the smart money discovers the trend. They move in early and take their positions.

Eventually this trend becomes obvious to professionals and institutions who buy into the trend during the second stage of the bull market.

Finally, during the third and final phase of the bull market the public finally catches on.

It is actually in the third and final phase of the bull market when the public jumps in that you see the most spectacular gains. You can see this trend not only in the chart of the last bull market in commodities in the late 1970s, but also the last bull market in equities beginning in 1995 and running all the way to early 2000.

Strategy: Discipline

If you believe that this is just the beginning stages of a new bull market, then relax. Hold on to your shares and don't panic every time a countertrend develops. Instead, plan to add to your positions during every corrective phase. Even simpler would be to dollar-cost-average your purchases.

I favor this approach at this stage of the new bull market because it is just beginning. You can do so easily with actual bullion or coins depending on your financial circumstances or with a gold mutual fund. I favor dollar-cost-averaging because it creates discipline, which is completely lacking in the gold camp at the moment.

Many new investors have tried to time the market without much luck due to improper training and technical skills. Since we are still in the early stages of a new bull market the disciplined approach of regular purchases is favored.

Instead of focusing only on price, start thinking of quantity. Start thinking in terms of how many ounces or shares you own. Lastly stop worrying and fretting every time share prices or bullion prices drop. Instead, view them as buying opportunities.

Your goal at this point should be to accumulate as many shares or ounces as you can during phase one of the bull market. You should also try to familiarize yourself with the fundamentals as much as possible. This will not only help you understand the new bull market, but also keep you from panicking every time there is a correction in the price of bullion or the precious metals shares.

------(click url for full text)------

(04/05/2003; 20:04:29 MDT - Msg ID: 100911)

Rich. . .

Thanks for your kind words directed toward me and USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We have seen a pick-up in silver orders too. As you know, George Cooper is our resident silver expert and I have my hands full with gold. Maybe we can get George at some point to pass along his assessment on silver. As you know USAGOLD's home state of Colorado has a history steeped in poor man's gold -- Leadville, Georgetown, the Tabors and the ties to Nebraska's William Jennings Bryan and the ties from there to the Buffet family (also Cornhuskers) in our era. Did you know that I wrote an article one time on Buffet and called it "Nebraska Silver"? One that I believe holds up well even now. Forgive my digressions. . . . .silver is a hard asset and as such an antidote to paper. . . sometimes we forget. Did you know, in that respect, that coining silver in those days was the equivalent of printing money, reducing unemployment, and providing the common man something better than a subsistence life style. At least that's the way Bryan/Tabor, et al saw it. I thought for awhile about writing a book about Baby Doe Tabor. In my early days as a gold broker, I met a older fellow and Western hard money afficionado who remembered sitting at lunch at the Brown Palace and seeing Baby Doe ride her bicycle down 17th Street. She was wearing newspaper for clothing. This after being the richest woman in Colorado who dazzled all with her beauty and riches. The original "rags" to "riches" to "rags" story and therein lies the fascination. Horace Tabor achieved great riches, lost it all and in was rescued from destitution by the Midas of the Rockies who made it all in gold in Cripple Creek. (Maybe you could persuade Cobra (Too) to tell you some stories on this level -- he knows the history well.) And it all came down to power politics. . . . . Hold silver, Rich. But make sure you have gold as a talisman beyond all others.

mikal

(04/05/2003; 20:54:33 MDT - Msg ID: 100912)

Unbridled bureaucracy and regulation recklessly bludgeon business

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/anderson040703.htmlWhy No Recovery? William L. Anderson April 7, 2003 Excerpts:
"At the time, few people noticed, since many regulations were not scheduled to kick in until after Clinton had left office. However, they now are here, including the draconian "arsenic" regulations that if actually followed would force entire western communities either to be abandoned or to bring in nearly all of their potable water from outside sources. From the locking up of huge government tracts of land to prevent logging and mining to strict air pollution laws that drive up the price of fuel, these little time bombs have begun to explode, making it that much more difficult for firms to stay in business and discouraging new investment.....
Likewise, an economy can recover only when business owners can shed the excess poundage of regulations and do away with frivolous and costly activities. These regulations can be hidden in a booming economy, but in our present situation, they are too great a burden to carry.....
As Paul Craig Roberts has pointed out in his book The Tyranny of Good Intentions, U.S. attorneys have not shied away from going after individuals who engaged in cash transactions even when it was obvious they were not involved in criminal conduct of any kind. While government prosecutors can brag about pursuing criminals, in reality, the current legal climate has made it less likely that people will want to invest in business enterprises in this country.
Of course, the current epidemic of multi-million dollar judgments against business firms serves as warning that being economically successful in the U.S.A. also means that success will place a company in the crosshairs of private and government lawyers. The Microsoft case was not so much about "protecting consumers" as it was about finding ways to pry loose Microsoft's enormous cash holdings. (Bill Gates had a policy of the firm being as liquid as possible, which also meant that lawyers from Janet Reno on down concocted schemes to put the money in their own pockets or government treasuries by looting Microsoft.)"

R Powell

(04/05/2003; 21:44:28 MDT - Msg ID: 100913)

M.K. // George Cooper

Thanks for the response. As you know, I'm interested in any and every thing related to silver. Perhaps you would post your "Nebraska Silver" article for us at some time.

If George is the man for silver information, maybe I can coax him out of lurking to give us his present assessment of the silver market. I've often repeated that I have reached somewhat of a dead end in studying the fundamentals of silver. The annual "Silver Survey" seems to be the accepted source for supply/demand/and the remaining known existing supply. As much as I've played devil's advocate with the numbers and the silver bull arguments (perhaps best described by Ted Butler), I can not find any serious flaw in the argument that existing supplies will someday (soon?) be exhausted. I wonder if a real physical shortage will be necessary to initiate price rationing. I also wonder how much unknown market available silver exists. That nagging doubt haunting my analysis is the old proverb, "If it seems too good to be true, it probably isn't." Another is that if my analysis is correct, then why hasn't the market reacted? I have offered my answers to these questions but would love to hear your opinion and that of George Cooper if/when time and inclination allow.
As for a gold talisman, I still have the one you gave me (thank you) but I do need more silver!
Happy weekend!

davefinger

(04/05/2003; 22:44:57 MDT - Msg ID: 100914)

Microsoft

Regardless of any political and/or financial shenanigans that likely went on behind the scenes during the MS anti-trust trial, they were found guilty. "Being successful" is fine. Having a monopoly is even, legally, fine. Being an abusive monopoly that employs gunboat marketing, product tying etc is not. Another bad habit of theirs, stabbing partners in the back, has paid the appropriate negative dividends as demonstrated by their inability to attract partners for their forays into game consoles and mobile phones. The reason is that they can't use their monopoly power to bully their way into those markets like they have nearly every major desktop software niche, and the players in those industries know what kind of corporate thug MS is. Sorry for the rant, I'm way too tired from yardwork and painting, and have watched the 9000lb gorilla from Redmond rampage for way too long to be gentile about it right now! I'll leave the subject by invoking the thought-image of Al Pacino from the final court scene of ...And Justice for All to summarize how I feel about MS!

(As an aside to retain some relevance to PM's, I often mention to people when speaking about PM's that Bill Gates, along with Buffett, are not only two of the richest men on earth, but that they are also two of the largest private holders of silver bullion. I hope I'm correct on that now that I think twice about it! I know I read/heard it somewhere... Anyway, it really seems to pique curiosity and interest when you drop that tidbit.)

Belgian

(04/06/2003; 03:02:53 MDT - Msg ID: 100915)

Interest Rates (IR)

The interest rates have bottomed and are rising. For me, the "Lows" are in ! UST 10 yrs, low, was 3,35% in oct.'02.
With 3,95%, at present, we are not far from an important pivot-point of 4,20%-4,30%. Rising interest rates = rising POG !

The oct. '02 IR's lows are corresponding with the stockmarket lows (previous bottom). The present rising IR, might indicate that the oct.'02 stockmarket-bottom might be taken out. For no simplier reason that we are still in very over-valued territory with a profitless economy.

This IR bottoming and first signs of reverse-up correspond with POG flip-flopping in the plus 300$ region, after having touched the 255$ bottom, twice and building a robust bottoming pattern.

Give the Elliot Wave (Fibonnaci), article at GE some attention : POG retracements of 50% and possible 61,18%...present decline to 322$...> 306$. Gold an IRs bottoming together, showing signs (intention) to rocket up and stockmarkets preparing for their "crash" finale ?

IRs at 40 years low...POG at 21 years low...And astronomical amounts of profitless, overvalued debt-papers, of all kinds ! Conclusion....!!!

Topaz

(04/06/2003; 05:01:16 MDT - Msg ID: 100916)

IR's @ Sir Belgian.

Beg to differ Sir B...if this contrived SM rally fails, as I'm sure it will, Bond yields will plummet "again".
We're not in a cyclical situation any more...seat of the pants time...hold your Gold-assets close...and watch!

The only "inflation" left is the Hyper variety...but imo, we must collapse first.

silvercollector

(04/06/2003; 07:09:23 MDT - Msg ID: 100917)

R.Powell, Mr. Gresham

Thanks for your messages.

Socrates964 and I traded messages a couple days ago. I wonder if you say the exchange? One point made was if and when inflation returns with a bang, will gold lead the march?

Interesting comparisons made about the pre-1980 gold spike, that is, gold at $35 and now $350 for a ten-bagger. But then as it has been demonstrated so has everything else. I love looking at the 25 year gold price chart, there is a flat zone (350-400) for 8 years from approximately 1989 to 1997. Price stability?

Then we get a fall from the, let's say, 8 year average of $375 to the 4 year (average) of $275. By the way, I'm looking at a 25 London fix chart. In any regard there are 2 distinct plateau's of 375 and 275. So I believe if one could understand the monetary fundamentals during these 2 eras one could reliable predict the future, yes?

So was monetary tightening the reason. Hell no, money has been cranking from what I understand. The "inflation" was directed into the SM. After that era (1998-2000) the "inflation" was re-directed into the real estate and the bond markets (treasuries) from what I can gather. Many speak of the tops in the bond and RE markets, where does the money(inflation/new money) head next?

Socrates964 and I touched on this briefly last week. I think there is a line that represents inflation. The monetary gurus as we know have a "moving target" on the definition so how does one really know what "the number is" but lets for a moment realize that there is some sort of mathematical representation on the escalating "price of eggs".

The stock market, again for case of discussion, was undervalued in the early '90's. It has crossed over "the line" and is clearly overvalued. I also use the "neighborhood watch" theory on the SM. The next-door neighbor, who is a production manager at a major tech firm, gets up and 6:00 arrives at work at 7:00 and gets home at 6:00 putting in his "8 hour" day. This guy just got laid off and says the hi-tech firm is pulling its foreign offices back to Europe. I told him that if he got laid off the firm must be in serious shape. His reponse was simply "oh yeah". Anyway the SM is still above the "inflation line". In my town of 1 million people RE has seen increases of 8,10 & 9% respectively in the last 3 years. Clearly unsustainable. Using the "neighborhood watch" I see almost as many houses for sale but the "Sold" signs are taking longer and longer to appear, demand is waining. Evidently the price of a house if above "the line" and is overvalued.

Wouldn't it have been a gag to have been in the SM exactly until the end of the peak and switched to RE and

Belgian

(04/06/2003; 07:26:55 MDT - Msg ID: 100918)

@ Topaz....about bond yields (IRs)

The reason why I'm calling the attention on IRs is that I doubt, they will get those bond yields down, again, if the SMs fail, again. In other words...they succeeded in knocking POG from 389$ back down to 322$ ( > 306$ ) in no time...but can this be done """ repeatedly """, with such a huge global market in bonds ? A 1,2 Trillion $ tsunami-wave is gulfing over the global market, "daily" !

The different rooms for (financial) * maneuvering * in the IR/currency/stockmarket and Gold, mine-fields, are getting smaller and smaller, as to compensate, alternatively, for each other (speculative/gambling-profits).

Central bankers (with their IR-policy) are destroying the "savings" of ordinary people with a policy that serves "nothing" in the medium long run. Whilst nothing is "turning around".

Right you are that we are Not in a (short !!!) cyclical situation...we have ended a linear "Gigantic" dollar-currency-cycle, instead ! Yep, the Hyper variety of the inflalala, is there. That's why I'm guessing those rising IRs.

Zero or quasi zero IRs are "destructive" in the longer run in the present economic/financial system. Everybody simply goes out of business, slowly but surely. The Japanese model.
Banks...businesses...savers, back's are being broken in their growth and "survival". This is generally, wrongly, called "deflation". Wrongly, because the intrinsical destructive effect is much worse than ordinary (cyclical)deflation. Therefor, prolonged periods of zero rates is indicating the end of the road to me and total collapse or super high IRs (hyperflafla) must be the end result to this.

The main reason for all this is : (increasing) "DEBTS" meeting no (declining) "PROFITS".

The uppercutal knock down of POG from 389$ to 322$ (306$) is gigantic evidence of the reigning "desperation" !
All this BLABLABLA about war-dividend is absolute nonsense !

We have come to the situation where a "healthy" degree of natural inflation has become impossible. Some inflationary pockets of "high" inflation were permitted (SM-Real Estate).
If one's stocks, AND house-value(price), AND bonds, AND employment/profits...are constantly declining !...what will the end result become ? Total collapse and destruction or a sudden roque wave of HYPERINFLATION or better DEVALUATION through monetary worthlesness. That's the "moment supreme" where Gold will take off and put the 1980 - x25 blast in eternal shadow. There is NO escaping, compromise possible as evidenced by the abnormal/absurd behavior of the visible indicators, remaining absurd longer and longer.

If my call for higher IRs, soon, is incorrect...the final outcome on this enormous anamaly, will be even worse than what we anticipate at present. See the stockprices of Japanese banks !

Topaz

(04/06/2003; 12:51:36 MDT - Msg ID: 100919)

RandGold.

http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=XAU&t=ZAR&a=1&c=2After spending the past 12 Mth's @ nett 3200, PoG (ZAR) has "fallen off the Cliff".
Rather than bemoan Golds fate, celebrate the fact that Au is "finally" showing signs of decoupling from it's currency attachment.
When ZAR (THE Gold currency) outperforms Gold by 25% in 2 Mth's...WOW! Something HAS to give.
@ Belgian:
We're on the same page...methinks a falling Papergold price is as good an indicator of further disinflation as any, Battlefield successes notwithstanding.
The 1929 experience looks likely to be repeated imo but glaringly different now is we're running on pure "faith" (no Gold to underpin)...consequently "cost of Capital risk" coupled with IR risk protection effectively moves "Zero" way further above the line....hence Mr G's reluctance.
The BEST form of risk mitigation is to continue to support the System in which your assets are denominated.

Off to varnish some Teak.

Daniel Druff

(04/06/2003; 13:25:50 MDT - Msg ID: 100921)

AB532

From: Steve Hayes
Date: Sunday, April 06, 2003 12:23 AM

I was at the hearing on AB 532 (the NV coin bill) and the chairman specifically mentioned the Idaho bill (and secrecy.) It is real.

Chris Powell

(04/06/2003; 13:51:57 MDT - Msg ID: 100922)

There's no evidence of a Plunge Protection Team ...

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1488... unless you look for it.

A reply to John Mauldin.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

TownCrier

(04/06/2003; 14:25:39 MDT - Msg ID: 100923)

A GAMESHOW?: "Gambling for a lifestyle"

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030329/bs_nm/markets_japan_women_dc_1TOKYO (Reuters) - Yuka Akiya giggles about her early 20s when she saved little and shopped a lot, but the 25-year old web designer says she now deposits a quarter of her salary in a savings account earning a paltry 0.01 percent interest.

At that rate, her investment will double in about 6,931 years.

In search of better returns, Yuka said she jumped at a chance to attend a seminar at the Tokyo Stock Exchange for women interested in investing in stocks.

Women have long been ignored by the male-dominated brokerage industry, but they are increasingly being viewed as a huge source of income for the nation's securities firms...

Medium-sized broker Tokai Tokyo Securities Co Ltd, holds lectures for women ... complete with the basics of stocks and bonds and articles meant to catch a woman's eye.

But your run-of-the-mill Japanese stocks will not be an easy sell.

The Nikkei 225 average has fallen 60 percent over the past three years. Risk-averse Japanese investors tend to prefer the security of bonds to the equity markets, which are perceived by some investors as a casino for speculators.

"Many Japanese investors consider buying stocks a big-time gamble, because stocks are seen as questionable, risky assets," said Hideki Sotokawa, director of investment services at Standard & Poor's.

Not helping matters are recent comments from Japan's finance minister, Masajuro Shiokawa, blaming the recent decline in share prices on a lack of morals among brokerages involved in speculative trades.

...Dentsu Institute's Yamazaki said she reckons women in their 30s are the group to watch, since they might be tempted by the prospect of big returns to pay for their lifestyles.

They have higher salaries than women in their 20s and experienced Japan's bubble economy, which left them with expensive tastes.

"These women don't want to give up the good life," Yamazaki said. "They know that the poor economic outlook means that working and saving alone won't be enough to improve their lot."

-------(click url to read full article)-------

Once Upon a Time... a man drove to Vegas because he wanted a hat. At the end of the day he was thumbing a ride home... still hatless, and without a shirt, too.

Japanese households have 780 trillion yen ($6.52 trillion) in the form of savings and deposit accounts. Will they be drawn in by slick brokerage firms and enticed to gamble away their modest security in an uncertain chase for a flashier lifestyle? Or will they stand firm, only to risk losing their purchasing power at the hands of the government's monetary officials who continue to toy with ways of weakening the yen to jumpstart the economy?

In this spectrum of alternatives, between the frying pan and the fire, buying gold is the one attractive alternative that can keep you in the driver's seat on the highway of your own choosing.

R.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/06/2003; 14:27:53 MDT - Msg ID: 100924)

In bookstores it retails for $14.95. But you know the author! Get it here for $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

ABCs of Gold by MK "Without waxing philosophical, a few words are helpful concerning the mind-set with which you pursue your interest in gold ownership. Some enter the gold market to make a profit, others to hedge disaster, some to accomplish both. No matter into which category you fit, make sure you understand why you are going into the gold market. Convey that understanding to the individual with whom you are structuring your gold portfolio. The whys have quite a bit to do with what you end up owning.

"Frequently investors will say that any kind of gold will do because after all gold is gold, isn't it? This type of attitude has helped a great many coin shop owners unload unwanted inventory they hadn't been able to get rid of for years. This is probably a good deal for the coin dealer, but it could spell disaster for you. In the same vein, I have talked to hundreds, probably thousands, of investors in nearly a quarter century in the business. Quite often, potential investors have no more reason for buying gold than 'everybody else is doing it.'

"In Chapter 16 on portfolio planning, you will find some details on this important subject. For now, consider the inscription over the entrance to the temple of the ancient Delphic Oracle: 'Know Thyself.' Study. Read. Learn what's going on around you. Call a few gold firms and ask questions. There's nothing like conversation to stimulate thinking. Take time to lay a little groundwork. Then make your move. The political and economic situation being what it is, there is no better time to start than now. Know thyself -- your goals and needs -- and you will be a more confident, happier gold investor." (more)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Daniel Druff

(04/06/2003; 14:43:35 MDT - Msg ID: 100925)

Chris Powell

The Exchange StabilizationFund
Chris Powell (04/06/03; 13:51:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 100922)
There's no evidence of a Plunge Protection Team ...
******************************************************

A beautifully written article, imho.

DD

Tacitus

(04/06/2003; 15:00:56 MDT - Msg ID: 100926)

The Week in Review

http://flagship2.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/Popup? parent=/VGApp/hnw/web/corpcontent/vanguardviews/jsp/VanViewsNCArticle.jsp$chunk=/freshness/News_and_Views/PCN_econ_0404200Dear fellow forum viewers,

Thought you might find this link informative.

Salve,
Tacitus

Tacitus

(04/06/2003; 15:06:56 MDT - Msg ID: 100927)

The Week in Review

http://flagship2.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/Popup? parent=/VGApp/hnw/web/corpcontent/vanguardviews/jsp/VanViewsNCArticle.jsp$chunk=/freshness/News_and_Views/PCN_econ_04042003.htmlDear Viewers,

Let me try again. Hope the link works this time.

Salve,
Tacitus

Tacitus

(04/06/2003; 15:09:37 MDT - Msg ID: 100928)

The Week in Review

http://flagship2.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/Popup?parent=/VGApp/hnw/web/corpcontent/vanguardviews/jsp/VanViewsNCArticle.jsp$chunk=/freshness/News_and_Views/PCN_econ_04042003.htmlDear Viewers,

If it doesn't work this time, I quit.

salve,
Tacitus

Dollar Bill

(04/06/2003; 17:19:09 MDT - Msg ID: 100929)

Sunday snippets

- "There is no economic theory that I ever heard of,"
sez the Mogumbo Guru, "that espouses continual,
accelerating debt...as a magic-bullet method of
achieving prosperity."

"When will the recovery will begin?" asks Mogumbo,
"The answer is simplicity itself; when some big group
of people get the financial wherewithal to buy a deluge
of global output. The Americans are just about tapped
out, bless their greedy little hearts. If Greenspan
were the hotshot that people think he is, he would be
pushing for Visa and MasterCard to send unsolicited
credit cards to the Chinese, Russians and Indians. When
that huge group of debt-free people starts consuming,
THEN the global recovery will begin."

*** "The world is aghast at the admission of Treasury
chief O'Neill that there are no assets in the Social
Security Fund!," writes Richard Daughty. "Well, duh!
Congress has been taking the money and putting in IOU's
for decades, and suddenly this is news!"

*** There seems to have been some doubt as to what was
actually in the Social Security system's vaults. So, a
presidential commission headed by former senator
Patrick Moynihan was appointed to have a look. Sure
enough, when they peeked into the nation's retirement
hidey hole, what they find? Nothing!

***The most surprising statistic is the revelation that NYSE Members bought such a humongous load of shares that my initial impression was that the figure printed in Barron's was a misprint. The historical weekly "net buy/sell" of Members can be most anything, from negligible up to around maybe 150 million shares or so a week at the outside. But it averages, I guess, around, oh, thirty million shares a week, give or take. Suddenly, like a bolt out of the blue last week, they snap up 588,248,000 shares! In one week! It may be a misprint, but if it is not, then I wonder what caused it?

Cometose

(04/06/2003; 17:37:56 MDT - Msg ID: 100930)

Dollar Bill / big volume on NYSE

I know i'm a synic (perhaps not a speller)but
there's this idea that the end of the War is going to bring about EUPHORIA being presented by the sold out media....and double digit returns in the stock market indexes are coming ......which may be good reason to be long....

Perhaps Carlysle group got their banker buddies in NY to encourage the MUTUAL fund Managers to load the boat up on the pending WAR FINALE .....so they could borrow against those shares to short the market.....If the market tanks as the war marches one into May perhaps June .....someone makes a killing at the expense of little JOE Patriot American getting FLEECED again .....PERHAPS the seller in last weeks NYSE machinations was the PPT

ISN"T THE NAME OF THE GAME OF GREED TO GEOMETRICALLY INCREASE YOUR WEALTH.........LOOKS like a beautiful TRIANGLE TO ME.....a BERMUDA TRIANGLE.....

Sorry , I couldn't help it....

Cavan Man

(04/06/2003; 17:39:12 MDT - Msg ID: 100931)

Dollar Bill

During the Presidency of TR for (only one of many) example (s), it was not unusual for the same crowd to do likewise. In times of near panic conditions in the financial markets, this characteristic behaviour by US financiers was expected. The White House meetings were, I think, reported in the mainstream press for the most part. Nothing new there; no cabal under that particular rock. The question to ask oneself (and to which you seem to be alluding to) is, with the magnitude of imbalances so great and the margin of error so thin, will "they" fail or will "they" succeed?

Mr. Mauldin discounts the PPT yet, it has always existed in one form or another. I've unsubscribed to his Eletter. The poor man, though very intelligent and I'm sure, very successful, is definitely NOT a clear thinker IMHO. He also seems to be on the same ideological, political jihad that so many follow.

Buy physical gold (and perhaps a good jr.) Accept no substitutes.

Daniel Druff

(04/06/2003; 17:47:02 MDT - Msg ID: 100932)

Mauldin

The Exchange Stabilization Fund
If the gentleman has an e-mail, perhaps we could send him a copy of the appropriate legislation which in fact, creates this sector of the Treasury Department. It's absolutely infuriating to see perfectly intelligent citizens in lack of information. It really is an educational problem...GATA?

DD

silvercollector

(04/06/2003; 17:51:47 MDT - Msg ID: 100933)

Now that the "war is over".....

Sydney whacks gold for 3 bucks, 322 and change. Interesting bounce off the 2 time Friday afternoon support. Hope 322 is the bottom.

Looking back over the last couple months it is most perplexing analysing the 'war premium'. I wonder if the breakthrough the mysterious 325/330 and 354 was the buildup of an accident waiting to happen. Although we are not out of the woods completely it appears that the market has priced it in.

I guess my point is that the severe gumming and jawboneing about the 'war premium' is/was that. The chatter of no premium or 50 bucks or in fact X bucks is a farce. In fact I will go so far to say that anyone not "pricing in uncertainty", ie no war premium is in denial. Buy the rumor, sell the facts, WHATEVER.

Believe you me, I'm no expert but the gossip about no war premium upsets up; these are the so-called experts. Now I wait to see if Sinclair is full of it or not. If he misses the mark I will never listen to another expert again.

I was had on Y2K by several so-called experts and I not going to take it anymore. I can't believe I've been had again, what a registered fool I am.

Don't get me wrong, I am very gold bullish, I'm just loaded at the wrong time. The end game of dollar dominance is, IMHO, certain.

This war may be won but it still is not paid for.

silvercollector

(04/06/2003; 18:06:25 MDT - Msg ID: 100934)

Now that the "war is over".....

...we wait for political fallout. UN, France, Germany, Russia and China I am sure are most anxious, perturbed.

We shall see.

Headline News yesterday. "Blix most curious to see if US finds WMD". (Blix who?)

I bet.

Wanna bet 'piles' are found all of a sudden. Vindication is the next 'war' objective.

Have a nice day is a overused expression, in fact a crock. When reality surfaces we'll have a nice day and not until then.

Cavan Man

(04/06/2003; 19:01:22 MDT - Msg ID: 100935)

AU: When all else fails....

Guys: If you've been around here long enough you can see how the "trader boys" are playing their game. This too shall pass. I've been here for, four years next month and have seen this before. Each time thereafter (post trading games),the price ofgold rises; always and consistently!

I planted a wildflower garden today. I loved my family and will sleep soundly tonight. Each time I ask myself; could I be wrong? What else can I buy of equal or better value? The answersare always the same.Good night and sleep tight.

Cavan Man

(04/06/2003; 19:04:13 MDT - Msg ID: 100936)

PS:

Yes, stocks are going up now that the US is in virtual (not actual) control of IRQ. Going up on what means I ask? Must be serendipidity because top line and bottom line growth stink globally. G'nite and keep focused on the big picture. Tune out the day to day noise.

R Powell

(04/06/2003; 19:52:43 MDT - Msg ID: 100937)

Exuberence again

MRCI delayed night quotes..
S+P up 10.50
Nasdoggie up 16.50
Dow up 112

And the dollar is up against other fiats, metals and oil down. War news supercedes financial indicators? If so, for how long? Kudlow will be insufferably smug and haughty tomorrow. I'm glad I'll be working.

A leading economic newsletter (monthly issue) focused on "jamming" out the short term emotional market moves (reactions to war news). The advice was to focus, instead, on the fundamental realities which will eventually determine the market direction, regardless of all else (including manipulation).

I guess I agree with this but it presupposes long term investments. All in all, I guess the market celebrating good war news is to be expected, no? Perhaps the trick is to fiqure out just when the celebration will end. Any thoughts?
Rich

contrarian

(04/06/2003; 19:59:44 MDT - Msg ID: 100938)

war is over?????

http://www.aeronautics.ru/silvercollector--war is over?...don't believe the hype...apparently financial interest are bearing down heavily on military command to present a pretty picture.
check out link above for an unbiased, third party view of the war. The report 5a is especially illuminating.

It's shocking to see how this differs from the "one media fits all" picture americans are presented with in this day of media conglomeratization. These are the fruits of the loss of independent media outlets... a party line that few US reporters dare to venture from.

contrarian

(04/06/2003; 20:04:39 MDT - Msg ID: 100939)

alternative viewpoint on war

http://www.aeronautics.ru/news/news002/iraqwar_ru_023.htmAll the claims made by aviation commander of the coalition, general Michael Mosley, about "�Iraqi army, as an organized structure consisting of large units, exists no longer�" are contrary to fact and, according to analytics, are probably connected with severe pressure put on the military command by American financial groups that desperately needed good news from the US-Iraqi front by the end of the financial week. In fact, the Republican Guards defending Baghdad have not lost even 5% of their numerical strength and military equipment. Most of those losses were due to bombardments and not land combats. The total losses of Iraqi army since the beginning of the war have not exceeded 5-8% of their defensive potential. This means the main battles are still to be seen.

Dollar Bill

(04/06/2003; 20:33:17 MDT - Msg ID: 100940)

contrarian

Hello Contrarian,
The russian website is of no help if you are trying to be informed in life.

mikal

(04/06/2003; 20:53:23 MDT - Msg ID: 100941)

Fingers in the pie

"Mr. President, Chairman Greenspan, we implore you to consider our plight in this grave time of attacks against Americans and our heroes in Iraq and Afghanistan. After 911 you assisted us so generously in a similar plight, and succeeded in pulling us out of recession and restoring the American Way. Won't you open the faucets once again?"
Distinguished Panel: "Well, since you put it that way, we cannot refuse."
Is this Disney's "Supercalifragilisticexpealidoscious"?

Rocketman

(04/06/2003; 21:20:04 MDT - Msg ID: 100942)

Down another $4 buck and no more powder!

My sentiments are with Silercollector! I'm sick and tired of hearing about support levels from so called professionals and then seeing gold drop another 5 bucks.

My life and my financial well being does not depend on gold going up. I run a great business that has nothing to do with gold.

But I have, like silvercollector and others here, equiped myself with a golden lifeboat. The only problem is the oceanliner of the general financial markets is moving on and does not appear to be sinking. The only thing sinking so far is my lifeboat!

Is the economic reality I think I am seeing out there along with all of you true, or are we insane and completely out of touch with reality?

steady

(04/06/2003; 21:39:19 MDT - Msg ID: 100943)

golden lifeboats dont sink!

my lifeboat doesnt seem to be sinking!

mikal

(04/06/2003; 21:47:25 MDT - Msg ID: 100944)

Russian convoy attacked in Iraq

http://www.jsmineset.comGold still well above numerous support levels. Dollar still well below trend lines. No problem. As for the war, well seeing is believing or, as they say in my parts, some things are just too good to be true.

Goldilox

(04/06/2003; 21:47:47 MDT - Msg ID: 100945)

Down another $4 . . .

@Rocketman:

Daily fluctuations based on War/Market info-mercials are certain to get your goat if you let them. The noise of daily movements are futile for everyone but the day-trader. IMHO, everything transpiring now is focused to hold the public's attention for election '04, so as in market predictions, if we're not looking at least 6-16 months ahead, we're short-sighted indeed.

The basic tenants espoused here are that market/currency devaluation lead to opportunities for PM upward revaluation. Whether the daily fluctuations return Au to $250/oz before finally regaining their upward momentum, the fundamentals support the theory.

We all have to answer the question of price breakout vs. continued manipulation for ourselves, but it's not healthy (financially or emotionally) to let daily fluctuations chart one's course.

aussie

(04/06/2003; 22:10:27 MDT - Msg ID: 100946)

(No Subject)

Gold - $321.00 - ouch!Rocketman and Silvercollector - I'm with you on this one, certainly very disheartening the pattern that gold is following at the moment. The support levels are revised lower and lower each time you read an analysts prediction. Anyway I guess all we can do is hang on in there and hope things will turn around shortly.

silvercollector

(04/07/2003; 00:43:54 MDT - Msg ID: 100947)

Rocketman

Alot of grouchies out here in Goldenland!

You bet, gold was a sawbuck short of 400 a month ago and tonight creamed the mystical, magical 325. I feel like a bear with a thorn in my paw.

Anyone with a wave X, teacup, cup and handle theory better save it for another day.

I'm getting the snarlies over CNN as well. Tonight they announce that 6 reporters have died so far, ever get the feeling there is more reporters than soldiers. Ever get the feeling that a bullet flying has a 50/50 chance of taking out a reporter.

There was a special on another channel about long lines of disgruntled reporters waiting in Kuwait not allowed inside Iraq. "Oh quick, get a shot of that guy with his head shot off and his eyeballs that have switched sockets" Then they show us the warehouse of caskets full of bones and the hospital shots with every second kid missing at least 2 limbs. Yeah that's what I want my kids to see when then channel serf at 7pm. This has got O.J. Simpson beat all to hell.

What a sick bunch of mutant freaks. We live in a truely messed up world.

Black Blade

(04/07/2003; 02:13:08 MDT - Msg ID: 100948)

BOJ buys Y1.16 trln in shares from banks by Mar 31

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030406/financial_japan_boj_stocks_2.html
Snippit:

TOKYO, April 7 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) said on Monday it had bought a cumulative 1.16 trillion yen ($9.64 billion) of shares held by banks by March 31 under a programme aimed at reducing banks' exposure to stock market volatility. The amount, shown on a financial statement released every 10 days, was up from 1.03 trillion yen as of March 20.

Black Blade: A bit more government intervention required. Buying stocks and the US dollar like there's no tomorrow. Nice to have a government sanctioned printing press. Remember they are buying on Euro and US markets too.

ski

(04/07/2003; 02:29:00 MDT - Msg ID: 100949)

Good news in Silver .....

If my memory serves me correctly, there were some unusual war games played in Europe during the Cold War with the Soviet Union. Just like the long wait for the POS and POG to finally make some big moves, the NATO allies watched and waited for Russia to make a big move (attack). NATO radar would watch the skies knowing full well that a major attack would initially start with a massive air assault from the Soviets. I recall reading of SHAM ATTACKS or FEINTS perpetuated by the Soviets. Radar would pick up massive air contacts streaming in from East Germany giving every indication that a full scale attack was underway. Then, at the last moment before crossing into West German airspace, these Soviet aircraft would turn away and return to base. The most important point of this example is to demonstrate that THERE ARE REAL AND MEASURABLE SIGNS (aircraft in the air) THAT MUST ACCOMPANY AN ATTACK.

Enter the Price of Silver....

Everyone knows about the ongoing silver deficit. Above ground stockpiles are being depleated and any thinking person knows that at some point the price of silver must go much higher to bring the market into balance. What we don't know is "When will the POS finally start to move?" Only the insiders in this market will know the timing. However, to help answer the timing question, IMHO, there are "real and measurable signs that can be identified" as in the Cold War example above.

There is no question that the daily price of silver is determined and controled by from one central location on the planet .... The NEW YORK COMEX. There are two major players at this market site, the LARGE COMMERCIALS and the LARGE SPECULATORS (hedge funds).

All indications point to the fact that the LARGE COMMERCIALS ultimately control this market and the LARGE SPECULATORS are the suckers who are consistantly being set up to have their pockets picked. It is also important to point out that the LARGE SPECULATORS are basically technical traders (having little concern for silver fundamentals) and that THIS GROUP DOES NOT OWN ANY PHYSICAL SILVER.

A historical study of the COMEX silver market will reveal that at various times each of these two heavyweights will have very, very large long or short postions in silver as evidenced in the Committment of Traders weekly reports.

Last week, Ted Butler supplied the following revealing information..... (unable go give the link per forum rules.) He stated that the LARGE COMMERCIALS had recently reduced their huge short postion in silver from 75 thousand contracts all the way down to 15 thousand contracts. In other words, they had recently been short 300 million ounces of silver and are now only short 75 million ounces as of the 3-25-03 committment of traders report. (since the last committment of traders report is a little old, and the POS has made little movement in this time, I would bet that the large commercials have even reduced this 75 million ounce figure even more.)

We are reminded that all COMEX trades have two sides .... for every seller there is a buyer. The question then becomes .... WHO IN THE WORLD WAS DUMB ENOUGH TO TAKE ALL OF THESE SILVER SHORT CONTRACTS OFF OF THE HANDS OF THE BIG SMART COMMERCIALS?? The answer is the LARGE SPECULATORS that DON'T OWN ANY PHYSICAL SILVER and therefore COULD NOT POSSIBLY DELIVER PHYSICAL SILVER TO SATISFY POSSIBLE COMEX CONTRACT DEMANDS!!

Now back to the Cold War .... The POS must explode at some point and there will be a few measurable indicators beforehand. There have been a few historical times in the past where the COMEX market structure was just like we finally see it today. If I'm not mistaken, in each of these instances, the POS rapidly moved up 50 or 60 cents and then the LARGE COMMERCIALS let the LARGE SPECULATORS out of their short positions at the last minute (the aircraft turned away and the exercise only became another feint) (I think that 11-2002 was the last time that this happened.)

Here is the "moral of the story". One of these times, the radar will sound, the LARGE COMMERCIALS will be properly positioned, the LARGE SPECULATORS will be IMPROPERLY postioned ..... and the LARGE COMMERCIALS will NOT STEP IN AND RESCUE THE LARGE SPECS .... the feints and shamm attacks will be over and the explosion in the POS will begin.

So, is this the real thing or not??

Unless you're an insider you will never know for sure. But we do know for sure that everything is now in it's proper place so that the battle CAN soon begin!!

Is there any other supporting evidence??

I think so. I watch three specific silver mining stocks like a hawk. On 4-4-02 the POS went down one penny and the three stocks moved up 4.6%, 3.9% and 6.15%. The stocks virtually always telegraph that something is up. Or more properly stated, the positive stock movement MUST be present for a movement in the spot price of silver to take place.

Note: This is largely my own individual analysis of the present silver outlook. I have been following this market for 20 years but there is a lot that I still don't know. Do your own research before you take my word for anything.

What ya think R. Powell??

Belgian

(04/07/2003; 03:07:11 MDT - Msg ID: 100950)

A stunning monday-morning !

The financial powers are maximizing their derivative-leverages ! Out of * overvalued * bonds...higher interest rates...back into * overvalued * stocks. Out of euro... back
into the dollar. Ocean waves of paper, rolling, stones up and down. Damage control as to keep some perception of false stability, alive. False global stability with the "incapacity" of generating any genuine "GROWTH" !

Don't get fooled by such a impressive show. Nothing in the general "detoriation" process has changed ! NOTHING !!!

We can bomb medieval states back into the stone-age and make it seem as if an economical renaissance is at the front door.

CNBC-Europ : The fall of Bagdad = POG at 300$/Oz ! Funny, how they can triumphant pinpoint such a price-target for Gold (and POO) !?

Flamboyant moves into a dominating detoriating spiral are a magnificent generator of financial frustrations amongst unsofisticated participants. An increasingly explosive coctail, where all leverage-gimmicks will slowly lose their effects.

Euroland-15 growth estimates, downgraded from 1,8% to 1% !
And the financial powers (brotherhood) wants to lead us by the hand to a SP-500 target of 930 (from a one yr low of 800). Yep, a plus 15% for an historical overvalued market, within the prospects of detoriating growth and profit ! Wawwwww...aren't we genial ?

The most optimistic P/E for the SP-500 = 17, with, God knows what kind of earnings for Q1. Do you want to hold such a paper ? When bond yields will (are) rising...they will be promoted as "attractive", again...and whoops, another set of rallies within the detoriating spiral, takes off ! Up until everything is milled to fine powder.

Keep on smiling folks...Gold's knock down is going to be extremely short in my very humble opinion!

Black Blade

(04/07/2003; 03:28:06 MDT - Msg ID: 100951)

Schroeder blames weak growth on Iraqi war

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=2515877
Snippit:

BERLIN, April 6 (Reuters) - Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said on Sunday the Iraq war was hitting worldwide economic growth, but business leaders said the German economy was more burdened by homemade structural impediments than anything else. Schroeder, whose government is firmly opposed to the war on Iraq, said it was already evident that uncertainties caused by the war were having a negative impact on economies worldwide and would impair growth, if not completely destroy it.

Black Blade: Obviously the currency and stock markets have declared that Gerhard Schroeder is a liar.

Black Blade

(04/07/2003; 03:42:54 MDT - Msg ID: 100952)

Little hope for post-war boom in U.S. economy

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=2516279
Snippit:

WASHINGTON, April 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy seems to have all but stalled out in recent months -- or perhaps even contracted -- and a raft of gloomy data have economists worried a revival may be difficult even if the Iraq war ends swiftly. Nervous that the war would hurt their sales, many businesses froze hiring and cut their investment budgets in the run-up to the U.S.-led attack on Iraq, now in its third week.

Black Blade: Apparently the markets have discounted all the bad news and have declared the economy "recovered" as stocks and the US dollar rocket higher. The funny thing is that the individual investor is not the one playing the game. Precious metals fall while the financial investment instruments rally even though the data suggests otherwise. This is absolutely bizarre unless the investment houses are playing on some "insider" inof that the rest of us are not privy to. Hmmm�

Black Blade

(04/07/2003; 04:40:09 MDT - Msg ID: 100953)

WMD Found!

News reports are coming out that "weapons of mass destruction" have been found in central Iraq. According to television news US Army sources have claimed to have found nerve gas agent in central Iraq. No details yet.

- Black Blade

Aristotle

(04/07/2003; 05:34:47 MDT - Msg ID: 100954)

"We live in a truely messed up world." --- sc

Folding this comment in with Friday and Saturday posts

silvercollector,

Amen to that, brother. Absolutely twisted. I find myself wondering if we can legitimately expect any semblance of order on a macroscopic level when case studies of the components -- on a person-by-person basis -- reveal chaos and rot at the root level.

In fact, I've heard rumors of one poor soul (whom I can only hope is otherwise a typically healthy and capable specimen) that has lost his wits at the tender age of 43.

Apparently, this sad sack determined that he "was going to fall short" of his "Twilight goals." Consequently, with this "shortfall" in mind, he apparently "borrowed on equity" and ran "lines of credit to the max" in order to accommodate this goal -- in his words, to "leapfrog several steps in order to enter the Twilight zone."

What on earth????

Only a relatively hard-working and fortunate few (out of 6 billion on earth) can claim the luxury of reaching Twilight "goals" as this poor soul seems to have in mind -- early retirement (i.e., by choice.) Most of us humans have our Twilight period thrust upon us -- where our bodies and minds eventually become too infirm to generate our needed income by daily productivity.

Most rational people, therefore, strive to make the most of their time in the Sunlight, to enjoy the healthy and capable periods of their life's mind and body even while preparing for the uncertainty of Twilight .

First of all, let me say this and get it out of the way as the catch-all. I am truly saddened for those who by mean fate are struck down prematurely by disease, made worse if it becomes a long lingering Twilight (versus an instant "lights out") for which they are ill-prepared with personal resources or a supportive network of family resources. Barring any of that, it's probably an understandably threadbare government safety net that will support them at some minimum acceptable level.

Beyond that, if a person is still healthy and capable, only a nitwit, a complete *nitwit* like we see here, throws in the towel at the fine age of forty-three and bets his tiny farm and harvests on the lotto. At that tender young age a man hasn't even reached his prime! What's the panic? All odds are that he's got 25, maybe 35 really REALLY good productive years ahead of him -- more ahead of him than behind him becase his first 20 years of life were wasted on (*almost* it seems) growing up.

Here's the good news. At this next mature phase of life, expenses tend to decrease as the child-rearing phase is now past, and a man can really begin to do some productive saving. (BTW, if you've raised your kids right, you reap dividends as they will be willing to support dear old mom and dad should your own resources prove inadequate due to a Twilight arriving prematurely.)

Here's a good rule to live by: Live within your means! If you don't make much, don't eat lobster for lunch. On the other hand, if you can't afford to eat anything, find better employment. A 43-year-old who honestly foresees his body giving out (Twilight) from strenuous labor long before any nest egg can grow had better try to find himself a way to transition into some kind of desk job so he can extend his number of fruitful days in the Sunlight.

What's the alternative, you ask? He'd better spend his time patching up his relationships with his network of family so they'll accept him as a charity case. And if everyone he knows and loves is in the same leaky boat, I'd suggest he'd better learn to vote early and vote often for Democratic handouts, riding the backs of those neighbors who didn't fritter away their own meager farmsteads in a warped bout of mid-life crisis on lottos and leverage in nitwitted get-rich-quick schemes.

In case you missed my point, let me sum it up. You said in an Saturday post: "I felt the need to leverage as the sense of despair begins to mutate into panic. ........ I have borrowed on equity and run lines of credit to the max in order to accommodate this goal. Foolish perhaps from your point of view, a necessary evil fom mine."

Necessary at forty-three years of age? *Necessary*????

One small step at a time I strive to climb a mountain, showing how it must be done. Patience, determination, and real progress... step after step after step, one after ANOTHER. But you, following some other twisted trail of self-perceived shortcuts, with one attempted gravity-defying step give us all a dusty CRASH-course reminder in how NOT to climb a mountain with a Wile E. Coyote-esque canyon-rim pratfall.

If I'm sounding less than charitable to you, it's so that others can LEARN from your mid-life mistake instead of following you over the edge. It's also to pull you outta your funk with a firm hand, because you're too young to think you're outta time. Furthermore, it's foolish for anyone to think that leveraging your stupidity will help you improve your fortune.

Consider this. It's been said that if you're not either a millionaire or bankrupt by the time you're thirty, then you're not really trying. To this I'd add, if you're bankrupt anytime *after* thirty, you didn't learn a damned thing in your twenties.

That leads us to the following insights for getting on with it.

A successful entrepreneur opined "anyone can be an entrepreneur who wants to experience the deep dark canyons of uncertainty and ambiguity; and who wants to walk the breathtaking highlands of success. But I caution, do not plan to walk the latter, until you have experienced the former."

As a rule, from the deepest darkest roots of the mountain you emerge the same way you climb to its summit -- one step at a time. But then again, if you don't know where you're going, *any* path will take you there. So have a care.

Getting back to our efforts in spending our time in Sunlight and Twilight, businesswoman B Coster summed it up nicely, "Nothing that sends you to the grave with a smile on your face comes easy. Work hard doing what you love. Find out what gives you energy and improve on it."

Personally, having followed that travel plan -- from early depths of failure to energizing heights -- I don't see any reason not to remain in the Sunlight until the Reaper sweeps me someday, hopefully, cleanly away. Why retire to Twilight if you still thrive in the Sun? However, if you *do* enter into a Twilight period by choice (i.e., enjoying leisurely pursuits with ample resources,) you are doubly blessed indeed. Until then, better you get to steppin'. It's not too late to start.

Gold. Get you some. One purchase at a time. --- Aristotle

Black Blade

(04/07/2003; 06:35:13 MDT - Msg ID: 100955)

Market Future Soar

US market futures are screaming higher, USD is screaming higher, Gold takes a hit, oil and NatGas lower. Grim economic data top to bottom. Heavy fighting reported in Baghdad, chemical Ali dead, two more journalist bite the bullet, missile hits US tactical ops site south of Baghdad with several casualties, US soldiers use Saddam's "facilities" at his presidential palace, and WMD site detected. War is practically over. Hmmm...

Strange news all around. It's going to be an "interesting" day.

- Black Blade

a nation of one

(04/07/2003; 08:20:54 MDT - Msg ID: 100956)

To silvercollector

For someone who has never worked behind a desk, it is easy for them to recommend that you should work
behind a desk. For someone who has never had his face in the dirt, it is hard for them to imagine what that is
like. For some people, who have always had money and property and servants, they say, "If the poor man is
hungry, why doesn't he just ring the dinner bell?" or, "So what if there's no bread. Let them eat cake."
Someone who has never had even so much as a moment of genuine desperation is incapable of
understanding what a more typical man -who may have had decades of very profound desperation- will do in
hopes of rectifying his own situation. The one cannot comprehend the types of risk the other is willing to
take, in trying to get out of his desperation. And when those actions lead him deeper into the darkness, only
the typical man can understand how necessary it is to invent sheer, insupportable happiness. The majority of
men have done so for millennia. So even if gold does not go to da moon this very afternoon, let us not
muddy the water of this questionable morning with the grime of future times. Pog could go down, we know
that. It could go up, we know that. We knew that to begin with. Which will it do? This we do not know.
Tomorrow we will know. Jim Sinclair makes a fine point today. Is Saddam playing a long hand, or is Iraq
falling apart? Will the truth be known any time soon? Or will the news be chilled and tossed to make
whatever type of salad makes the US economy look good? Your answer is probably the same as mine.
Should one stick to reality and fundamentals, or adopt the adage, "When in the looney bin, do as the
loonies?" Good question. The answer can only be known for sure in retrospect. In the meantime we have to
make our best guess. If it is any comfort, Silvercollector, you are not alone. Millions share in your suspense.
But take heart. Life itself is an assurance. And the fact that we will all get to the other end of it, come what
may, one way or the other. In the meantime, when thinking about gold's volatility, I like to remember that
best of all possible songs,

Row, row, row your boat,
Gently down the stream.
Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily,
Life is but a dream.

In this realm Gold of course is one of the more pleasanter of the dreams. And it is no coincidence that in the
above verse, the word 'merrily' is sung four times. It's because sometimes it takes us a while to catch on.

Black Blade

(04/07/2003; 08:41:55 MDT - Msg ID: 100957)

Weapons of Mass Destruction Discovered

Looks like Marines with the 101st found (supposedly French) rockets with mustard gas and sarin payloads ready to fire and a captured Iraqi colonel led US troops to a stash of sarin and tabin gas canisters at an agricultural center. Looks like the UN is left with egg on their face now. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

21mabry

(04/07/2003; 08:58:08 MDT - Msg ID: 100958)

(No Subject)

Was up late last night watching the war, an interesting thing I read on the bottom of the screen stated Iraq is bankrupt and 300 billion in debt. The countries were listed who were creditors, usual suspects, U.S. ,FRANCE,GERMANY. The next statment read we need to get Iraq to turn a profit.It was late and I dont remember the guys name who said this.I truly thought what telling statment turn a profit. Well I guess Iraq is their new cash cow. The resources of that country are already bought and sold.

a nation of one

(04/07/2003; 09:21:59 MDT - Msg ID: 100959)

. . .

One thing that concerns me is that the news has lost its credibility. It may be true that the Americans have found French rockets aimed at the Americans and cocked and ready to go off, and that an Iraqi colonel led them to them. But how can anyone be certain anymore that tomorrow the colonel will not turn out to have been paid by the Americans to set that up, or that the rockets were put there by Saddam and his men and not by the Americans? These are not accusations, just questions. Time will answer them. It has already been said that events will be shown to be consistent with the US motivation for the invasion. We already know that the news is managed to show the picture that is wanted. We know also that the government is complicit in the manipulation of markets -even doing so in cooperation with other countries- and that managing news is an effective way of creating false impressions. Haven't we seen by now enough to know that little we are told is entirely real, but that there is usually some catch to it? Or is it the case that George Bush is the hero that he appears to be? That American soldiers are not being hurt significantly? That the Iraqis really are incompetent cowards about to destroy us en masse with French and German and Russian weapons? That gold has no real value? That American stocks are cheap? That bonds are a good deal? That war will put more wealth into our pockets? Or is it true that the value of gold is real, and that only the tarnish is temporary? That stocks are so worthless that if the government didn't buy them they would collapse? And where are they getting the money to do that with? Are they printing it? Or are they taking it from you and me in taxes? Or both? I'm sorry, but now that I am past fourteen, I just can't force myself to pretend that I believe every little thing any more. Of course, if, fifty years from now, it turns out that the story of the French missles really is what the news fabricators say that it is, I will gladly adjust my view. Until then, however, I am not going to hold my breath. I love America, but for lying I have no use.

Nakajima

(04/07/2003; 09:29:22 MDT - Msg ID: 100960)

atlantic monthly article

Must read article in current issue of the Atlantic Monthly about Saudi Arabia: "Fall of the House of Saud".
> Basic idea is that we are supporting this corrupt regime which is one of the biggest terror sponsors in the world in return for the free flow of oil. Oh, and they keep $1 trillion deposited in US Banks and another trillion in the stock market in return for our good favor......
>It is a dangerous game of chicken
>The author says the day of reckoning is soon......

Nakajima

(04/07/2003; 09:43:45 MDT - Msg ID: 100961)

coin prices

I'm getting quotes from coin dealers of $25. to $30. above spot on Eagles and Maple Leafs. Does this sound like a good deal?

Gandalf the White

(04/07/2003; 10:01:55 MDT - Msg ID: 100962)

Sir Nakajima !

Nakajima (4/7/03; 09:43:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 100961)
coin prices
===
NO ! That is NOT a "good deal" !
IF you wish a "good deal", just call SIR MK at USAGOLD !
Telephone numbers are here on the FORUM !
<;-)

Mr Gresham

(04/07/2003; 10:22:22 MDT - Msg ID: 100963)

silvercollector

Here's a thought: People typically get mortgages on their home purchases, and no one seems to think this odd or deleterious. They do this so that they may enjoy the benefits of home ownership sometime in their lives before they have saved up $200,000 in cash to plunk down at the closing.

When my Dad's home, in a nice suburban neighborhood, goes up $100,000 in "value" in a few years, without a mortgage on it, so does the house next door, owned by a young couple and mortgaged to the hilt.

Of course these "investments" and people's views of them can and do get out of hand, but the initial position seems to have been a reasonable one. You may borrow, during your productive years, in order to take a position -- in real estate, a business enterprise, or in ANOTHER holding -- that will benefit you more than the likely cost of the interest you will pay. There is no Divine Proscription against doing this, just a heightened need for common sense.

Doing your math before you get in, and knowing when to switch out before the position turns against you, these are the inescapable responsibilities you have to your own survival. 'Twas ever thus...

Socrates964

(04/07/2003; 11:00:11 MDT - Msg ID: 100964)

Markets - watch those bonds!

A few comments:

-the fact that gold stocks are diverging bullishly from POG is telling us that we're near the bottom, IMHO - may be wrong, but if we assume that the large shorts had inside knowledge of some kind, then they wouldn't be covering now if the next act is a trashing of POG to $300 or lower. Looks to me like the usual 'the buyer always pretends he's a seller' stuff.

-Dollar hasn't moved above 103 in any significant way.

-Right now, I think the most important thing is the long bond (bond markets are generally much more intelligent than equity markets), which has sold down to the floor set earlier in the month (110 on the 30-yr and 113.2 on the 10-year) - sure doesn't look like bonds are discounting rate cuts/low inflation due to cheap oil to me. I see a break of support around these levels as an important signal - any thoughts?

Daniel Druff

(04/07/2003; 11:20:09 MDT - Msg ID: 100965)

Let's think about this for a moment

We absolutely know the end game of the establishment They will loan themselves millions and billions of Dollars/Yen/Euro's/etc. and buy gold, silver, and all sorts of tangible assets. As the prices triple they will sell one third and pay off the fiat debt. Now then, they have no debt and live happily ever after...assuming none of these physical assets are their god.

Let's close with an insightful comment from Sir silvercollector...

silvercollector (4/7/03; 00:43:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 100947)

What a sick bunch of mutant freaks. We live in a truely messed up world.
*****************************************************

It really is a sin cursed world in which we live...silvercollect is exactly right.

DD

DD

mikal

(04/07/2003; 11:39:37 MDT - Msg ID: 100966)

@Socrates964

Turning points in gold, bonds and dollar. I hear ya.

Shapur

(04/07/2003; 12:05:54 MDT - Msg ID: 100967)

Bond Market monetization

Bonds will continue to do well because the fed will buy them all the way down to zero yield (or close to, etc). Sir John Templeton said that a few years back and when I heard that I really thought about it. Now we can see the strong bond trend. The bond shorts or bond bears keep warning of impending higher rates---from what?

"Defall"ation of the dollar will be supported all the way to the end of the road. The fed will support Fannie, and Freddie and Sallie too. The fed will buy good corporate bonds too. The fed will own a lot of good assets at the bottom----Someone here just said that.

Bond funds were 1st quarter winners--a trend will get followed and then when the public starts bidding for those great "risk free" bonds--look out!

Daniel Druff

(04/07/2003; 13:14:22 MDT - Msg ID: 100968)

tone

Shapur (4/7/03; 12:05:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 100967)
Bond Market monetization
Bonds will continue to do well because the fed will buy them all the way down to zero yield (or close to, etc). Sir John Templeton said that a few years back and when I heard that I really thought about it. Now we can see the strong bond trend. The bond shorts or bond bears keep warning of impending higher rates---from what?
*********************************************************

IMO, this is not only the message but also the tone which will win the day. Actually, we don't have to point anything out to anybody...after all, if a society has all sorts of fiat floating around it's just a matter of time before a shortage of some piece of equipment or commodity pops up...and then UP goes the price...and then before long, UP goes something else...and so on. The physical investors are positioned beautifully. And the paper players have just gone to school.

DD

Topaz

(04/07/2003; 13:22:20 MDT - Msg ID: 100969)

@Socrates Shapur - Bonds

The Long end appears to be reacting to SM rallies whilst the Short maturities are rock solid. Arbitrage will keep the 10's and 30's @ 4 and 5 % respectively for the time being.
These "rallies" are all failing to follow through ie: a futures driven "pop" on the open and declining throughout the day...volume is also of consern.
I get the distinct impression ALL stocks and Corp Bonds at Dow 7000 will be owned by the "management" so a move below that seems improbable...Bonds otoh have reached their nadir and a revisit to 4.65% Long Yield (Triple-bottom) will be catastrophic. Lower Oil prices at this point in time will be the disinflationary catalyst imho.

Daniel Druff

(04/07/2003; 13:40:39 MDT - Msg ID: 100970)

Is Silver Firming?

Use caution when stacking silver! Do not store large quantities in the middle of a room...trust me on this...you can damage the building.

DD

Topaz

(04/07/2003; 13:43:03 MDT - Msg ID: 100971)

@Daniel

You said:
...if a society has all sorts of fiat floating around it's just a matter of time before a shortage of some piece of equipment or commodity pops up...
The problem as I see it is not "too much money" but "too much money in too few hands"...classic 1929.
There won't be a general inflation until all this money can filter down to the masses. if you can figure out how, short of giving it away, (Hyperinflation) Mr Greenspan and his ilk would dearly like to talk to you.

21mabry

(04/07/2003; 13:53:44 MDT - Msg ID: 100972)

(No Subject)

The stock market gave back alot of the early gains today, doesn t it look like a market of the big traders it does not seem like a market driven by the smaller investors, the swings are to wild.Unless you have the ability to get in and out quick this is not the place to be. Gold did not get hammered as bad as I thought it would. These are strange investing times we are living in. 21

Daniel Druff

(04/07/2003; 13:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 100973)

Topaz

"There won't be a general inflation until all this money can filter down to the masses. if you can figure out how, short of giving it away, (Hyperinflation) Mr Greenspan and his ilk would dearly like to talk to you. " Topaz
**********************************************************

These guys already got it wired...free credit cards.

DD

Socrates964

(04/07/2003; 13:55:11 MDT - Msg ID: 100974)

Bonds

Yes I agree, the yield curve is like a carpet with a dead dog underneath it, you can move the bulge around to one end of the carpet or the other, you can even steamroller the carpet so that the bulge is spread more evenly, but the malodorous bulge remains in some shape or other.

More specifically, if foreigners start dumping the long end, then I expect Bernanke and friends to step in with the magic printing press to act as market maker - nevertheless 2 points to be made:

a) right now bonds show that the market isn't buying the oil-driven recovery story.

b) if bond prices don't take the strain, some other variable has to - I'm betting on the exchange rate.

oh and of course...

c) the monetization that is necessary to staunch the flow of unwanted bonds should be good for POG.

Belgian

(04/07/2003; 13:56:50 MDT - Msg ID: 100975)

Iran

A member of an European Institute for Strategic studies, stated bluntly in a TV debate, that the White House is discussing, Iran, as the next one, to be invaded, in the axis of evil. This comes after the Blair, guaranteed, that no other country will be invaded.
The administration is still in doubt if it should happen before or after 2004 elections.
I really don't know what to think about this. Anyone ?

a nation of one

(04/07/2003; 14:19:24 MDT - Msg ID: 100976)

Reply to Belgian (4/7/03; 13:56:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 100975)

It kind of lends credence to the more tawdry websites, which have been saying all along that one important objective is to render less effective the enemies of Israel. Whether this is desireable is subject to debate. And what effect these expansive American imperical ambitions may have on pog, the markets, and various economies is as much your guess as it is mine. But at some point I should expect that fundamental realities will be what ultimately make themeselves felt.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/07/2003; 14:30:24 MDT - Msg ID: 100977)

Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Why should YOU buy gold from USAGOLD - Centennial?

Because no one else will do it for you.

1-800-869-5115

rare gold

(04/07/2003; 14:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 100978)

Belgian

Regarding Iran, my answer could get me booted like my old comrade Rock however I typically don't like to address hypothicals especially considering the source. Until I see concret documentation concerning a US plan to invade Iran I'll with hold my thesis.

Cheers,
Raregold

21mabry

(04/07/2003; 14:50:20 MDT - Msg ID: 100979)

money to the masses

Daniel Druff, how about congress passing a law that lets the small fry investors like me, cash in our beaten up 401k with no taxes or penalties due. would that help our economy? I know this wont happen, just a thought.

Antipodean Bug

(04/07/2003; 14:52:02 MDT - Msg ID: 100980)

ESF reversing their tactics?

ESF HQ......"Hey boys, the market is beginning to
suspect our operations. Instead of consistently trashing
gold in NY each day, you guys are going to have start
working the night shift.
So go to town on the price in Asia each night and then
we'll let the market in NY rally a little the following
morning. That'll disguise our operations.
Gosh aren't we clever!"

Topaz

(04/07/2003; 14:59:31 MDT - Msg ID: 100981)

Chemical Ali Dead.

Boy! I'm SO relieved...The Worlds a better place without him...or was it Her?
I must admit to a total lack of foreknowledge of this "bad mother"...and if the Media portrail of him/her is correct, I'm the only person on the planet who was not aware of this scoundrels misdeeds...anyway, about Gold...
This $320 level should provide strong support. (we filled at $312..then $317, before the "exuberance" set in) Looking forward to reporting season, on the back of a benign 2% end-of-quarter Dollar reverse spike..as opposed to 10% in Q2-Q4 '02, we could reasonably expect some ugly Numbers from Dow components. This should trigger Dollar weakness, Bond strength, and a PoG uptick...Lets watch!

Black Blade

(04/07/2003; 15:08:36 MDT - Msg ID: 100982)

A casualty of war: The dollar

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ED08Ak01.html
Snippit:

A sick greenback

It wasn't like the dollar wasn't already sick. America has a current account deficit to kill for. It stood at US$462 billion, or about 4.7 percent of GDP in the third quarter 2002. This is expected to hit the 5 percent mark in early 2003. If there aren't enough foreigners to pump money for your benefit, you either have to export more or start importing less. And to do this the currency starts depreciating, making your exports cheaper and imports more expensive, thus reducing the current account gap. America is running the largest current account deficit ever seen. And if it doesn't find enough foreigners to invest at home, the dollar might well have to take a knock. And attracting money isn't easy given the plunging interest rates. Add to this a sluggish US economy, which will make it progressively tougher to attract foreign investors. According to Stephen Roach, the chief economist at Morgan Stanley, this situation can't go on forever. And according to Herbert Stein's Law, things that can't go on forever don't. America has been there before. In 1985, when the current account deficit was less than it is now (as a percentage of GDP), a revision in market perceptions caused the dollar to drop from 240 to 140 against the yen and 3.3 to 1.8 against the Deutsche Mark. That the dollar is sick and losing ground is shown by the fact that in the past year it has lost about 14 percent of its value on the trade weighted basis.

The war to save the dollar

Among the many theories on why the US is attacking Iraq is the dollar theory. The dollar derives its strength from the fact that the world trusts it over all other currencies. So even in the post Bretton Woods floating rate world, the dollar is a hard currency which central banks around the world hold as their reserve asset. With the coming of the euro, which is backed by the third, fifth and sixth largest economies of the world, the dollar was threatened. But in the very near term, with the euro zone teetering on the edge of recession and deflation; it doesn't pose much of a threat to the dollar. The uncertainty associated with the new currency also prevented the dollar from being dethroned from its royal perch. Saddam Hussein did his bit in weakening the dollar when he switched from selling his oil in dollars to doing so in euros. This he did as a statement of anti-Americanism. Iran is planning to make this transition to euros and even Venezuela is open to selling its oil in euros as opposed to dollars. It is also true that the Saudis are open to trading in both dollars and euros. So there might have emerged a situation where a very large part of the oil in the world would have traded in euros, and not against dollars. This would have weakened the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency. Countries around the world would start switching to euros, and thus weaken the dollar. So it is claimed by some that America, which obviously benefits most from a strong dollar, was fighting to dethrone Saddam (and possibly Iran at a future date) to prevent the dollar from losing ground.

Black Blade: An interesting article worth reading. The weak US economy and the dollar losing its place as the preeminent reserve currency looks supportive for gold over the long term.

Black Blade

(04/07/2003; 15:34:46 MDT - Msg ID: 100983)

More job searchers just quit looking

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2003-04-06-jobless_x.htm
Snippit:

WASHINGTON � Frustrated workers are calling it quits.

The number of working-age Americans who dropped out of the labor force � meaning they aren't working and gave up on finding work � rose for the sixth straight month in March, further proof the labor market is stagnant at best. The proportion of people 16 and older who are in the labor force � looking for work or working � is at its lowest in nearly a decade, the Labor Department said Friday. A fifth of the 8.4 million people who are unemployed have been out of work 27 weeks or longer.

Black Blade: A "grim" employment picture. And it's getting worse day by day. It is funny to listen to Labor Secretary Elaine Chou lie on camera about how the jobs picture is just "peachy"

(04/07/2003; 15:39:05 MDT - Msg ID: 100984)

A lot of doji's in the candlestick charts...

http://stockcharts.com/candleglance?$INDU,$UTIL,$TRAN,$COMPQ,$SPX,$WLSH,$USD,$XEU,$NIKK,$FTSE,$DAX,$CRB,$WTIC,$GOLD,$TYX,$VIX,$CPC,$XSF.

Paper Avalanche

(04/07/2003; 15:49:47 MDT - Msg ID: 100985)

"Popping the clutch" not having the desired effect

I thought somebody ordered a rally this morning? The DJIA futures were up 229 while I was shaving, then lo and behold we end the day on a whimper, not a bang (up 23 points).

You can cut the manipulation in the air with a knife.

The illusion has been kept real one more day.

There's always tomorrow.

PA

glennh10

(04/07/2003; 16:05:54 MDT - Msg ID: 100986)

Re: Good News in Silver...

"If I'm not mistaken, in each of these instances, the POS rapidly moved up 50 or 60 cents and then the LARGE COMMERCIALS let the LARGE SPECULATORS out of their short positions at the last minute."

I guess I've been living in a dream world too long, but I don't see why the large commercials would want to relieve their counterparty, the large speculators off the hook. If I owe you money (or an amount of gold, silver, or whatever), due to you on a specific date, what would be your motivation to just blow the whole thing off at the last minute, and let me off the hook? I'm not saying I disagree with your analysis, for all I know, you're likely right on target. But, if this market is so convoluted for such a thing to legitimately happen, time and again, then I have to conclude that the fraud gets only thicker as you go up the financial food chain, until, at the top, you reach those in charge of investigating cases of fraud. In any event, the workings of such a thing is way beyond me. And, it tells me that one's only financial protection is physical gold or silver, in the hand (unless one is fortunate to be on the inside of the scam). Why would one throw away their profit due? Any explanation would be appreciated.

Black Blade

(04/07/2003; 16:08:03 MDT - Msg ID: 100987)

PA - Popping Clutches

You may have also noticed that the market indices were up strongly on huge "block trades" in the early going. The quick start to over 200 on the DOW triggered a heck of a lot of short covering before the rocket burned out. The block trades dried up a little before 3:00 est and then fell back to earth. The small fry are simply not participating in this market. It is essentially all institutional players (ie. hedge funds and investment houses). I see it as an attempt to lure out the gun shy little guys into participating in this market and they are not going for it. Note all the goofy excuses used as well. The investors isn't playing because: "it's cold outside", "it's hot outside", "it's the war", "it's the CNN effect", etc. ad infinitum.

As for myself, I just sit back with a cold one (or a hot cup of mate) and just laugh my a&$ off in amusement. This isn't a market - it's a circus or perhaps a "freak show". It has absolutely nothing to do with economic fundamentals. The same mindless euphoria is seen in the currency market. Meanwhile precious metals are selling at bargain basement prices. The so called "war premium" is gone and traders are only playing gold off the US dollar. I see that in after hours trade gold has bounced back a couple of bucks in spite of the war being essentially over. It should get rather "interesting" and "entertaining" for a while longer.

- Black Blade

CoBra(too)

(04/07/2003; 17:07:44 MDT - Msg ID: 100988)

Poppin' the Clutch -

Or even better don't follow the vagaries of war - as they have absolutely no l.t. effect on the markets, nor will they change the underlying drab fundamentals of the economy, currency and the debt situation.

In terms of the big picture does it really matter where the sm's are heading short term, as there is no direction or trend anyway.

Without being a TA guy in the sense of the word - I've been leaning more towards the fundamental economic conditions as my main compass to decipher and then follow the general direction indicated. Short term swings in markets may be profitable for some - though in the end it's a suckers game, or mostly a losing proposition (Just look at all the frustrated day traders of yesteryear!).

There is one observation, though, I do think has some merit. In the latest POG rally the PM shares did not only NOT take part, they sold off instead. Recently the HUI and the XAU at least stabilized and have probably done better than the POG itself. I personally construe this as a sign of the POG correction to have run its course - as most of the major Gold rallys have been led by the Miners (Small wonder as the annual supply deficit is now touching 40% of production).

This may be a godsent to load up on physical - in your own preferred form - again. I sense the next - or is it second leg of this infant Gold Bull is allready in the starting gate.

Good Luck - cb2

Daniel Druff

(04/07/2003; 17:55:59 MDT - Msg ID: 100989)

Not a bad idea

21mabry (4/7/03; 14:50:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 100979)
money to the masses
Daniel Druff, how about congress passing a law that lets the small fry investors like me, cash in our beaten up 401k with no taxes or penalties due. would that help our economy? I know this wont happen, just a thought.
***********************************************************
...or at the very least, waive the penalties. I think that would goose-up activity/volitility for awhile.

DD

steady

(04/07/2003; 18:16:44 MDT - Msg ID: 100990)

where is aristotle?

ok where are u at ari? u didnt bite at my scpetic remark regardig the silver bill. unless i can send a digital missle your way to get u to comment how in the heck am i suppose to gain more understanding? how can i pick your brain? promise it wont cause any pain and all here will stand to gain, and our live the same will never be so have a dialouge with me , best of all its free.
see ari at one point i thought i understood u and what you where saying. then came the property / money debate. and now u busted out with the thought that the dinar wont be very good for gold. i dot disagree with ya , but what im not getting is what roel gold -plays for ya. is it roperty, an dif its property why bother with it having any connection to money> or should gold be free floating let go and have no relationship to fiat money but the fiat money tags along on golds value> help me out here . dont send me back to the trail as ive walked it once and am revisting it again for the 3rd or 4th time. or maybe u are just tired of explaing it to the next generation. wonder if the elders ever got tired passing down the oral traditions?
but ari i really understood your reply to the person who was worried about sunlight twilight time. one purchase at atime. according to ones own understanding as another says!

TownCrier

(04/07/2003; 18:28:47 MDT - Msg ID: 100991)

We can only hope it is, and remains, an Allocated account

The WGC reported the following today:
---------
The ICICI Bank in India is planning the launch of a gold accumulation plan. According to press reports, the terms are that an investor may deposit Rs1,000 ($21 at prevailing rates this morning), for which the bank will deposit 1.5g of gold to the account. Once the amount deposited is equivalent to 10g of gold (at a pre-determined gold price), then the customer may take delivery of a 10g gold coin. The Bank has recently started selling �ICICI Bank Pure Gold�- certified 24 carat (99.99%) pure gold coins at its branches in Mumbai and Delhi. Mr. Amitabh Chaturvedi, head of retail channels and liabilities group, ICICI Bank is quoted as describing the programme thus "It'd work like a forward contract where gold will be priced at a pre-determined rate, that is, the day he starts depositing money on that count." He also told the press that "In the last three months since the launch, we've been able to sell 40 kg of gold. For the next year, our target is 3 tonnes, and we are confident of being able to make it".
-------------

Well, at the very least we can say, with a 10-gram unit deliverable, this program is far superior to the recently launched Australian ASX version using 400 oz LGD bars.

Why not choose the real thing? In times of stress and financial default, all paper -- even those sheets having the magic word 'gold' written on them -- can burn under the same flame.

R.

Flaccus

(04/07/2003; 18:56:23 MDT - Msg ID: 100992)

Steady

Question.

Will the dinar be exchangeable for the dollar, euro, yen, etc.?

Let's start with that.

One question at a time? What doya say there, Steady? Up for it. Short answers pls.

BTW Are you related to Gollum? Great character. Loved that part of the movie.

steady

(04/07/2003; 19:07:45 MDT - Msg ID: 100993)

Chart of who "owns" the Federal Reserve

http://www.save-a-patriot.org/files/view/whofed.htmlChart 1

Federal Reserve Directors: A Study of Corporate and Banking Influence
Published 1976
Chart 1 reveals the linear connection between the Rothschilds and the Bank of England, and the London banking houses which ultimately control the Federal Reserve Banks through their stockholdings of bank stock and their subsidiary firms in New York. The two principal Rothschild representatives in New York, J. P. Morgan Co., and Kuhn,Loeb & Co. were the firms which set up the Jekyll Island Conference at which the Federal Reserve Act was drafted, who directed the subsequent successful campaign to have the plan enacted into law by Congress, and who purchased the controlling amounts of stock in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 1914. These firms had their principal officers appointed to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Advisory Council in 1914. In 1914 a few families (blood or business related) owning controlling stock in existing banks (such as in New York City) caused those banks to purchase controlling shares in the Federal Reserve regional banks. Examination of the charts and text in the House Banking Committee Staff Report of August, 1976 and the current stockholders list of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks show this same family control.
more at link!

Cytek

(04/07/2003; 19:09:21 MDT - Msg ID: 100994)

From Jim Sinclair's MineSet

As such and without specifics, gold's movement may be the most accurate forecast available for changes in fortunes of war and politics.

8 to 11 trading day basis:

Resistence: First @ 327/330
Very major @ 335/337
Intermediate (maximum potential)@ 341/344

Support: Very major @ 319/324
Major @ 313/315
Major @ 307/310

June gold made a slightly lower low this week than last, by about $2.00,although we did not expect lower lows. We continue to think that gold should not trade lower over the next 8 to 11 trading days. In fact, the greater probability is that gold will chop upside from Friday's level and trap rather than chop downside and trap.

Maximum rally action for this period carries to 335/337. Thereafter, and assuming a resumption of uptrend - 341/344 will be very strong resistance -- but subject to some degree of modification after another two weeks. As
such, 341/344 resistance is given in the off chance that gold breaks hard to the upside -- ahead of our timetable given here. That is, any premature run to the upside will not breech this level without substantial corrective
action.

TownCrier

(04/07/2003; 19:14:09 MDT - Msg ID: 100995)

... versus an UNallocated account, that is.

To be sure, from the perspective of a gold advocate, delivery at each 10-gram increment is preferred; otherwise, it isn't exactly gold ownership, but rather an exercise in contract law.

Call Centennial this week for the real thing shipped to you at good prices.

R.

R Powell

(04/07/2003; 19:34:49 MDT - Msg ID: 100996)

Black Blade // CoBra(too)

War news supercedes fundamentals? I've been pondering the same (100987) as Black Blade but thought the stock markets reactions to war news, to the exclusion of all other long term financial indicators, has extended to include the currency and metals markets as well. Other than perhaps grains, what markets haven't aligned themselves to reacting to the televised war news? I wonder when they will return to their susceptibility to the daily financial indicators. I believe this point will be close to the bottoming of gold's price retraction.

CoBra(too): Good to hear from you again. I think you're right (100988) about stocks leading the price of metals. So, hopefully, as you say, the mining stock indexes should be a good leading indicator of the next leg up. Yes, and as a speculator I hope we're right.
Now, if the markets start reacting to fundamentals and the coming earnings reports rather than JUST war news, and, if the HUI and XAU can not only stabilize but start upward and with both POG and POS certainly near the bottom of their recent (pick any recent time frame) range, then.....?
The icing on the cake would be some crying, screaming and pulling of hair about the ongoing debts and deficits (national, state, corporate and consumer) in the public financial world. Just one man's opinion here, of course, and as always, patience will be required to see if any of this comes to pass.
Thoughts?
Rich

R Powell

(04/07/2003; 19:47:20 MDT - Msg ID: 100997)

Ski

I saw your earlier post. Must reply tomorrow due to the current onset of brain fatigue. I wish someone would decide where to set the clocks and then leave them alone forever! I'll be tired now until I get my hour of sleep back in the Fall not to mention getting up now in the dark.
Free Gold and Time(too)...

Dollar Bill

(04/07/2003; 20:10:57 MDT - Msg ID: 100998)

Nakajima

Your right, the Atlantic monthly article is enlightening.
Whodathunk Saudi Arabia was such a mess.
The one item not mentioned, in your post or the article, which IS long recognised here on the forum, is that Saudi Arabia gets a pass from the US on any issue because it trades oil in Dollars. First and foremost.

steady

(04/07/2003; 20:16:18 MDT - Msg ID: 100999)

nevadas attempt to circulate silver as money gains media attention

http://www.insightmag.com/news/407743.htmlNevada vs. the Federal Reserve?
Posted April 4, 2003

By Kelly Patricia O Meara
As Insight reports this week, there currently are 60 different forms of currency in circulation throughout the United States, and the reasons for issuing this alternative money are as numerous as the currencies themselves [see "Alternative Money Has Redeeming Value"].

While many have begun using new forms of currency to keep the money within their community, there are others, such as Bernard von NotHaus, founder of the National Organization for the Repeal of the Federal Reserve, who are intent on using it to publicize the populist claim that the Federal Reserve is illegitimate. Now it appears that even some states are beginning to question whether the Fed is constitutional.

A bill recently submitted to the Nevada Assembly Committee on Constitutional Amendments directs the issuance of Nevada silver coins. The act, now under consideration, states in part that:

the purported delegation by the Congress of the power to issue money to the Federal Reserve Bank, a privately owned corporation, is a violation of the terms of the U.S. Constitution;

read the rest at the link!

mikal

(04/07/2003; 20:38:34 MDT - Msg ID: 101000)

Carrying costs long-term

http://www.etherzone.com/2003/henr040403.shtmlOUT OF CONTROL
YOUR NEEDS, YOUR SAFETY TO THE MOON, ALICE
By: Ed Henry
President Bush is asking Congress for an additional $75 billion to fight the war in Iraq. Where is this money to come from?
Borrowing is out of the question, at least for the moment. Having already given the nation $638 billion in new debt since the beginning of fiscal 2002, the Bush administration has its hands tied since hitting the national debt limit of $6.4 trillion on February 20th, some 44 days ago depending on when you read this article.
Obviously, Bush would borrow the money if he could. And he would probably borrow a lot more than the $75 billion he's now asking of Congress. The man thinks nothing of plunging you, your children and grandchildren, deeper and deeper in debt in order to push his go-for-broke attempt to establish the New World Empire.
Thinking that April 15th will bring some sort of windfall bonus to government coffers would be a serious mistake. The feds thought that last year, and the result was a serious shortfall in expected revenue that had to be made up for by borrowing.
The U.S. Treasury reports revenues so far this year even worse than at the same time last year, and last year was a disaster.
Do you think that the government tightens its belt because its income is down? Think again.
The budget for fiscal 2002 was a little over $2 trillion. The budget for 2003, just passed a few weeks ago, was for $2.13 trillion. And now, Bush and the Government Accounting Office (GAO) have submitted a 2004 budget totaling $2.2 trillion.
Anytime they have a shortfall in tax receipts, and rather than raise taxes, the government simply borrows the difference. Without batting an eye, they put it on the credit card.
A good part of this so-called borrowing is the money they steal from entitlements like Social Security, Medicare and sixteen others entitlement accounts. But they've already counted these into their budget as "off budget revenue" and when there's a shortfall in expectations here they'll borrow to make up for that too.
When one of these entitlements has a shortfall and wants to draw upon its so-called "trust fund," the government must either borrow the money or take it from the current budget's tax receipts shorting some other program. Since the beginning of fiscal 2002, several entitlements like Airports & Airways and Unemployment have needed money. Unemployment alone has required more than $38 billion to date with more to come.
The bulk of what the Bush administration is now calling "expected deficits" is made up for by borrowing from investors�people, organizations, and other countries willing to loan the government money because it's backed by every taxpayer in the United States. What has always been known as "the safest investment in the world."
So far, we've borrowed $3.7 trillion from these investors. And as these bonds, bills, notes or "securities" mature at the rate of about $5 billion a day, the Treasury replaces them with new issues as fast as they can. The alternative is to draw down on current tax receipts and cut back on the annual budget.
There's a lot of good faith to be maintained here. If investors ever begin to suspect that the U.S. Government has its back against the wall, is broke, or has no other way to raise money without shorting the very citizens guaranteeing loans�they may begin thinking that their money is at risk.
Not only could these investors stop loaning their money, but there could be a run on the Treasury. The securities now held can be cashed in before maturity at any time.
This is why you didn't hear much about the nation's financial position while the Bush administration was trying to pick up a "coalition of the coerced" and it's why you are not hearing much about it now while we invade Iraq and try to enlist the support of other nations to help the belligerents rebuild that nation afterwards.
To accomplish his goals, George W. Bush is even willing to create so much ill will in other nations of the world that the 80 to 97 percent of the people in these countries who are against the invasion of Iraq, including our coalition allies, might begin to boycott American products and send our trade deficit through the roof, a trade deficit already standing at more than $240 billion.
Precisely how much is at stake at this point is more difficult to assess than the cost of the invasion and rebuilding of Iraq.
The most crucial question is why Congress hasn't simply rubber-stamped an increase to the national debt limit and allowed Bush to continue his fantastic borrowing venture. This is usually accomplished automatically with little or great political grandstanding, but always with the same resultant increase. Today, there isn't anything mentioned or anything scheduled on the subject.
And while every State and City in the country is in financial straits, the only thing they can count on is that the budgeted money for federal programs like Education, Agriculture, Homeland Security, and so forth, will be used elsewhere until the Bush administration can continue borrowing us into oblivion.
"Published originally at EtherZone.com : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact."

mikal

(04/07/2003; 21:35:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101001)

The "irony" of PPT self-denial

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hultberg040903.htmlIS THE PPT AN "URBAN MYTH?"
Nelson Hultberg -Excerpts:
"Let's see if indeed the market is too huge to manipulate, and if it would actually require massive losses. Former Federal Reserve governor, Robert Heller, had the following to say about the size of the market in an article he wrote for the Wall Street Journal, on October 27, 1989 -- an article that shockingly advocates direct intervention by the Fed into the market to buy S&P futures:
"The stock market is certainly not too big for the Fed to handle," Heller stated. "The foreign exchange and government securities markets are vastly larger. Daily trading volume in the New York foreign exchange market is $130 billion. The daily volume for Treasury Securities is about $110 billion. The combined value of daily equity trading on the New York Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ over-the-counter market ranges between $7 billion and $10 billion."
Observe that this figure of $7-$10 billion is for the combined trading of all the markets, and it is for 1989. Thus, we need to chop it some to arrive at figures for just the Dow, and then we need to expand it some to get today's figures. So let's assume the Dow's daily trading would have been approximately $5 billion in 1989, and that it has grown to around $15 billion today. This is hardly "hundreds of billions," as Mauldin claims. On the contrary, it is a very manageable sum as former Fed governor Heller maintained.....
"This is exactly what has been happening in the S&P futures pit recently, according to friends of mine who have been close to the action, and it represents the refinement of program-trading techniques that have been used with increasing effectiveness since the days of the 1987 Crash. The huge growth of electronic trading undoubtedly has helped to amplify the effect, since a vast, global universe of traders, hedgers and speculators are effectively on a hair trigger, each seeking to be a step or two ahead of the stampede. Traders in the S&P pits are among the first to see the buy programs coming, and it has happened often enough lately to cause them to pull their offers at the first hint that the usual suspects may be about to light the fuse. When the sellers then back away from their offers, the lightened supply that results makes it possible for the S&Ps to lift effortlessly, kicking off a chain reaction of hedge-buying in other indexes, as well as in specific stocks and related securities and derivatives. Once the panic starts, it is a simple matter for the perpetrators to take sizable profits just minutes after the rally has begun. And if they should conspire to kick things off just before the final bell, they can position their offers in Asian and European markets so as to reap substantial profits with almost no risk." ["Does the Plunge Protection Team Exist?" www.marketwise.com, October 31, 2001, emphasis added.]
So we see that the market of $15 billion is quite manageable, and any organization who chooses to manage it would not have to lose money in the process at all. It seems that Mr. Mauldin is wrong on both of his cherished points. While Art Cashin and CNBC's crew of blow-dried script readers will naturally disagree with Ackerman, all savvy traders are in complete agreement with his view.
For example, Bill King of The King Report in New York and formerly the operator of several equity trading desks on the NYSE, wrote the following in an email to me: "The Fed learned in 1987 that they could rig markets via futures. On October 20, 1987, the US financial system collapsed. I remember my NYSE brokers calling me and saying specialists were leaving the floor because they were broke. But then NYSE Prez John Phellan blocked the doors and sent them back to their posts.
"Soon thereafter, Bankers Trust (the lender to the Street) started releasing money after the Fed guaranteed indemnity from any losses. But the real scheme occurred in the Missiles the MX (Major Market) futures.
"A clerk I know on the CBOT told me that Morgan doled out orders to several brokers who bought the MX futures recklessly. Since all other futures were closed and the Missiles were a thin market, the gains were explosive. After that experience, position limits were removed for all intents and purposes. The mechanism for intervention was discovered. [Emphasis added]
"It was utilized after the UAL-inspired mini-crash in 10/89, but it was during Q1 of 1990, as the Japan bubble was bursting, that regular 'ugly buying' of SP futures occurred. 'Name' brokers would 'buy ugly' S&Ps just after US stocks would open sharply lower on Japan. CME floor contacts said the brokers would bid for contracts and kept increasing bids before the crowd could respond. It didn't take CME locals long to figure out the scheme, and they would stand aside and let the brokers race the futures higher.
"During the late '90s, with that series of crises, there were so many 'V' bottoms on 'ugly futures' buying that Richard Russell and others who had previously rebuked intervention realized it was a regular operation.
"I would guess that something is planned for the commencement of war with Iraq. And of course, only Larry Kudlow and other supply siders who thought the Fed was too tight during the biggest stock bubble in history don't know about the gold rig." [email to me March 11, 2003 from Bill King, kingreport@ramkingsec.com]
Other PPT Misconceptions
Mauldin has other arrows in his quiver, however. He contends that massive amounts of liquidity would have to be injected to pull off such manipulation, which would be impossible to conceal. But as Ackerman and King show, this is not true. Manipulation can be accomplished with minimal S&P futures contracts because of the combustible nature of the S&P pits whenever the shorts see large buy programs coming.....
But here's the irony. This, in effect, becomes one of the weaknesses of the PPT, and why it will ultimately fail. The government knows it can't use the PPT indiscriminently. It has to be selective and keep as low a profile as possible so as to avoid exposure. If not, it will destroy the system, which would negate the PPT's purpose of preserving the system. So their intentions are to not OVERUSE it. This makes the PPT a tool of limited capacity.
This means that as the bear market increases in intensity, the PPT will prove ineffective because it cannot be used in a massive enough way for fear of detection. (This assumes that the Fed will continue to fear detection and not risk destroying the credibility of the markets by wholesale public intervention.) Eventually the market will move too fast, in too powerful of a panic mode for PPT operatives to counter it. There will come a time when they can no longer "light the match to the kindling" of the S&P. This, however, will not keep them from trying to avert the consequences of the bear market all the way down. They will feel they must "do something." But in the end all they will be able to do is buy some time and cause a lot of delusion along the way. No group, private or governmental, has ever been able to stop a "primary trend" in the markets. As the venerable Richard Russell reminds us, "the market always does what it wants to." The PPT will DELAY the ultimate destiny of the market, but it will not be able to STOP it."

ski

(04/07/2003; 22:43:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101002)

Silver .... Glennh 10 #100986

Glennh you said, "Why would one throw away their profit due?" (As the Comex Large Commercials let the Large Speculators off the silver hook)

I thought I might take a few different approaches to answer this one ... take your pick.

1. It has been said that Americans are good checker players but lousay chess players. The actions the Large Commercials are more in keeping with playing chess.

2. Think of the movie "The Sting" with Paul Newman and Jackie Gleason. The whole game is all about the final winning hand and not the small potatoes at the beginning.

3. Recently read a book "Stock Market Wizzards". Some of these successful players are so good that they will never give you even one piece of incite into their successful opperations period. Nonetheless, they are successful year in and year out.

4. Went ocean fishing once. First we bought some small, artificial fishing lures at the pier. A mile from shore, we successfully used the lures and got into a large school of small fish. It surprised me that after catching a few buckets of small fish, we got underway and left the very area where the fish were feeding so heavily. Why leave the area when we were going to soon fill the boat with good, small fish? Went out to deep water and put perfectly good, small fish on our hooks and threw them into the ocean. Caught a gang of good, LARGE fish.

5. Was in the service at one time. Near pay-day, at the local off-base beer joints, you always ran into pool sharks. The game was to let you win a little but for them to win more often or win the bigger bets.

6. All gambling casino's operate on the principle that they want you to win some of the time because they know that they ALWAYS win in the long run.

7. To be a successful investor you do not need to be a jack of all trades who makes money in all manner of markets. You only need to be very good at one market, especially if you can influence some sort of control over the outcome of the roll of the dice. Said another way, "Tell me the direction that XYZ corporation stock will trade on April first of each year and I will never have to work another day in my life ..... and nobody will be the wiser!"

....................

With regard to the POS and the control that the COMEX has over this market .... I believe:

a. that in the huge run-up that silver is going to make is going to make all of this frustration entirely worthwhile.

b. the positive forces that are lined up to move silver are so huge that the present COMEX market distortions will be suddenly and completely swept aside and will hardly qualify as a historical footnote.

c. the COMEX market distortions are allowing me to continue to add to my silver postions which means that in the long run, I will do even better.

.............

Glennh10 .... truly, and by every measure, this whole POS puzzle is a complex MIND GAME. Numerically, most will be turned off from even playing the game (and will only hold physical), others will be frustrated and quit, and a minority will apply themselves to understand the game and will subsequently reap the rewards of becoming "good players". IMHO, holding physical silver will be a great and profitable strategy but the game can be played much more profitably by bringing other strategies into play.

In other words, I'm playing chess this time around...

mikal

(04/07/2003; 23:04:29 MDT - Msg ID: 101003)

Will Fed unleash "bull in the china shop" now or next month?

http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/844556p-5932282c.htmlFederal Reserve mulls emergency recession strategy By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON (April 7, 2003 6:14 p.m. EDT) -Excerpts: "Confronting new fears of recession, the Federal Reserve is refining an emergency economic rescue plan that includes further interest rate cuts and billions of dollars in extra cash for the banking system. The Fed's effort would be aimed at pulling the country out of a nosedive that has seen 465,000 jobs evaporate in just the past two months, raising fears among economists that the weak recovery from the 2001 recession is in danger of stalling out altogether. "Clearly, the Fed is in uncharted territory," said economist David Jones. "I think they will try some experimental moves." One key element hasn't been used successfully in a half-century. Based on comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other Fed officials, the central bank is expected to move beyond its traditional buying and selling of short-term Treasury securities held by banks to the direct purchase of longer-term securities in an effort to influence long-term interest rates. Also, Fed officials have indicated they are prepared in the event of an unexpected shock to the system to lend massive amounts of money directly to commercial banks to make sure that financial markets do not freeze up.
And as a third policy option, Fed officials have indicated they would explicitly state that if the federal funds rate is moved below its current 41-year low of 1.25 percent, it is likely to stay at the lower level as long as needed.....
"The best policy for dealing with deflation is to avoid it strenuously by acting pre-emptively," he said. Because of this, some economists believe the Fed will not wait until its May 6 meeting to put its plan into effect, opting to cut the federal funds rate through an emergency conference call, possibly as soon as this week. However, other analysts argue that the Fed will likely wait, hoping that the favorable tide of the war will bolster markets in coming weeks and restore confidence..."

Black Blade

(04/07/2003; 23:11:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101004)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Viewing the economic weakness and the numerous earnings warnings, I remain skeptical of the rally's duration and sustainability. The economy has been in decline since the beginning of the year. The view from Wall Street is that this economic weakness is strictly due to the war. The excesses of the bubble are believed to be over. Yet there is no evidence that any of these so-called excesses have been cleansed from the system. The labor market reports show that more workers are losing their jobs and those who have lost their jobs are finding it more difficult to find a job. Those that are now unemployed are remaining unemployed for longer periods. According Mark Zandi, chief economist for Economy.com, the true unemployment rate, factoring in underemployed, is closer to 12.4 percent. His figure for unemployment is up from 8.8 percent in April of 2000. Furthermore, many who have lost their jobs are no longer picked up by government statistics if they work part time or do small consulting work. Those that remain unemployed after their benefits run out are no longer considered unemployed according to the way the government measures unemployment. You become hypothetically employed once your unemployment benefits run out.

Black Blade: Indeed. The way that I have viewed unemployment aside from the "official" rate is based on the BLS own data. Many are simply discounted because they have given up, run out of benefits, etc. Watch the trend of "new jobs created" as well. Fewer jobs are created (even low paying jobs) while the rate of "first time claims" is steady to rising. Obviously something is seriously amiss with the "official" unemployment rate. I have been saying that unemployment is running between 11% and 12%, but that was not considering "under employment". I suspect that the "real" unemployment rate is much worse.

Snippit:

Investing in Today's Market

Therefore, given these circumstances, how should an investor play this market? That depends on one's risk tolerances and trading skills. If you are an adept trader, then trading the exchange listed funds would be an easy choice. They are liquid, and easy to trade in and out of. If you are a long-term investor, I would stick with the trend in "things" and especially commodities. Nothing that I see at the current moment would dissuade me from the view that commodities are in a new bull market, especially precious metals, energy, food and water, and instruments of war. Most investors and analysts inside the U.S. have a localized view of things as well as short-term memories. However, there is a larger world that exists and is emerging in Asia. The impact of China, which is one of the few countries experiencing robust economic growth, is going to have a profound impact on the world of commodities. Considering that almost all new excess production of energy is being consumed by China tells me energy will remain in a bull market throughout this decade and the next. Forget $10 oil or even $18-$20 oil after the war in Iraq is successfully concluded. There isn't the spare capacity to handle the needs of the West and an emerging China without higher prices.

Black Blade: This emerging Third World country is just getting started in the "Industrial Age" and is already the third largest consumer of oil. As the Chinese worker become more affluent they too will demand more "energy intensive" luxuries (let alone a growing industrial "energy intensive" manufacturing base). This growing affluence is just starting to be felt in the growing demand for precious metals in a newly liberalized gold market.

Snippit:

Volume was unusually low today with only 930 million shares traded on the NYSE and only 980 million shares on the Nasdaq. Most of the activity was generated in the futures pit and an arbitrage play in the cash markets. Market breadth was positive by a 5-3 margin on both exchanges. The VIX declined by 1.07 to 31.73 and the VXN fell 1.41 to 41.44.

Black Blade: Bingo! As I said earlier, the huge block trades one after another typically are indicative of larger than normal buying of index futures by deep pockets and NOT the individual investor (or even many individual investors). I notice this strange phenomenon repeated over and over on the real time ticker on many trading days (indices, shares and on high sudden volume that stops just as suddenly). This is a game being played by none other than institutional players. The same likely goes for the long/short positions of currency, bond and commodities players of late. PPT aka Working Group on Financial Markets, Federal Reserve, coincidence, "the great computer" behind the curtain, etc.? Whoever is involved, it certainly is not John and Jane Doe on Main Street.

mikal

(04/07/2003; 23:34:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101005)

Higher rates on horizon

http://www.msnbc.com/news/896865.asp?Osi=-"Time is ripe to lock in mortgages
April 7, 2003
by Sharon Epperson"

Lemming

(04/08/2003; 00:31:49 MDT - Msg ID: 101006)

Kaplan is VERY STRONGLY BULLISH on Gold

http://www.truecontrarian.comExcerpt: >>>>>As a freak April snowstorm rages outside, my current outlook has been raised to VERY STRONGLY BULLISH on both gold and gold mining shares. Even as the price of gold itself has continued to move lower, HUI has made a series of higher lows: 112.61 on March 13, 114.06 on March 25, 114.22 on March 28, and 116.56 on April 7. Investor sentiment toward gold and its shares is continuing to deteriorate, even as the share prices are grinding higher. This is exactly the opposite of the behavior in early February when gold was peaking, and is the classic sign of an important intermediate-term bottom. In addition, the 112.61 HUI nadir on March 13, 2003 almost exactly matches the floor of 112.66 on November 22, 2002, and therefore completes a very bullish double bottom. As of this morning, when gold touched $319.30, its lowest point since December 2, 2002, Comex gold commercials were probably net long for the first time since December 2001, thus confirming a strong buy signal on both gold and its shares. The intraday trading pattern since March 12 has seen gold shares repeatedly open at or near their lowest levels of the day, then gradually recover as the day progresses, which is quite bullish. This indicates that institutions are accumulating repeatedly at key support levels. Gold analysts who were very bullish at the recent top, and pounded the table all the way down, have recently become quiet, indicating that even they are afraid of appearing foolish as gold appears to be moving against them. <<<<<<<

Kaplan posts & reviews some uncannily accurate forecasts in this article. I have printed & archived some of his predictive formulas.

It looks as though the drought is over. The plethora of excellent articles on USA Gold tonight is awesome!
___________________________________________________________

Black Blade

(04/08/2003; 01:19:12 MDT - Msg ID: 101007)

Lemming - SJ Kaplan

I guess it makes up for his missing the "run up" from $252 to the recent $390 an ounce gold. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(04/08/2003; 01:20:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101008)

Oil supply less supple this time

http://www.sunspot.net/business/bal-oil0407,0,1480517.story?coll=bal%2Dbusiness%2Dheadlines
Less excess capacity and smaller inventories than before the '91 Iraq war mean no guarantee that prices will quickly return to their prewar levels.

Snippit:

LOS ANGELES -- As far as oil markets are concerned, this war against Iraq is nothing like the last one. Back then, adequate supplies were swiftly secured, and prices plummeted from record heights, even with two major exporters offline, Kuwaiti oil wells on fire and tankers slowed to a crawl in risky shipping lanes. Saudi Arabia and other nations had so much spare capacity that they could crank the valves wide open and calm oil traders' frayed nerves. Crude prices that shot up to $40.42 a barrel in the wake of Iraq's August 1990 invasion of Kuwait dropped more than $10 the day after the U.S. began bombing Iraq in January 1991. They returned to the economically comfortable $20 range a week later.

Fast-forward to 2003, and to another war with Iraq. Crude prices rose before the bombing started 19 days ago, to just under $40 a barrel, then fell once the fighting began, settling at $28.62 a barrel Friday as U.S. troops closed in on Baghdad. Glancing at prices, the two war scenarios might seem similar, said Amy Myers Jaffe, senior energy advisor at Rice University's Baker Institute in Houston. "But there are actually some huge differences that could come back to bite us." The most critical: This time around, there isn't much give in the global supply network. Any misstep can upset the supply-demand balance that holds prices steady.

Thirteen years ago, the market was overloaded with oil. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was trying to shore up prices by holding down output by members, whose surplus production capacity at the time was a rich 5 million barrels a day. Today, rarely used government stockpiles are ample, but commercial inventories in industrialized nations are at a 25-year low, able to meet about 50 days of demand, compared with 1990's 87-day cache. OPEC's extra oil production capacity has shrunk to between 700,000 and 1.2 million barrels a day by one estimate, at least 76% below what it was the summer of 1990. U.S. inventories are in record-low territory, holding only about 14 days worth of consumption. What's more, gasoline stocks are well below normal levels as the nation heads into the summer driving season. And output from domestic wells covers just 47% of what the country consumes.

Black Blade: This time Venezuela is barely at two thirds of pre-strike production, Nigeria is mired in civil war (in fact a major pipeline was blown up today), and Iraqi production is on hold. Third World demand is growing while reserves and production are shrinking. It will be years before any increase in Iraqi oil will come online and much of Venezuelan oil production has been permanently lost. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade

(04/08/2003; 01:51:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101009)

Asian and Euro Markets Awash In Red

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian and Euro markets are giving back yesterday's gains as now the focus is more on the economy rather than the "mop up" action in Iraq.

- Black Blade

Old Yeller

(04/08/2003; 02:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 101010)

Very interesting

http://www.scotlandonsunday.com/business.cfm?id=401412003
An article on the PPT and GATA.Very well written,touches on
common themes for an appearance of a strong stock market and dollar and a correspondingly droopy POG.

Belgian

(04/08/2003; 04:01:49 MDT - Msg ID: 101011)

Bush - Blair in Ireland.

They discuss the Middle East "roadmap". Will it be the P.Wolfowitz or the U.N. - way ? Is there a reasonable compromise, between these two plans, possible ?
POO and US$ are in the geo-political * balance *, here.

First things first : There are 20 billion euro in the UN-Iraqi, oil for food, account ! How "irrelevant" has the UN become for the US ?

B/B-press conference at noon. Will we get any indication ?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/08/2003; 07:58:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101012)

Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call USAGOLD - Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115

Cometose

(04/08/2003; 08:33:27 MDT - Msg ID: 101013)

silver

Kitco Spot Silver up .09 a few minutes ago..... at 4.49
very intersting activity ......
I also noticed that NGAS was up late last night .19 ....and today there's no trace of that (pressure) anywhere....but there is a rumor also circulating about NGAS which is related to shortages which is also known to be the case with silver.

Some one is probably also , now buying all the known supply of coffee out of the warechouses as well.....good idea...
and perhaps sugar as well....Heard Larry Williams once cornered a section of the Sugar market....wars on a different front....NOT ....supply and demand imbalances...

TownCrier

(04/08/2003; 09:56:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101014)

Federal Reserve adds 'permanent' reserves, outright purchase of U.S. Treasuries

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030408/markets_fed_openmarket_2.htmlWith the market in fed funds trading this morning on target with FOMC directives at 1.25 percent, the NY Trading Desk entered the open market on behalf of the Federal Reserve System to announce a coupon pass totalling $733 million for the purchase of dates between January 2005 and February 2006.

This injection of 'permanent' reserves to the nation's banking system was sterlized (at least for a day) with a concurrent open market operation in the form of an overnight reverse repurchase agreement (a financing instrument which is effectively a matched sale-purchace with respect to reserve adjustments) totalling $2.25 billion.

Yesterday, open market operations took the form of an addition of $3.25 billion through ten-day repos.

Note: before you waste your time visiting the linked Reuters article, please know in advance it is in error and basically worthless. (They must be downsizing their financial reporting department...)

R.

TownCrier

(04/08/2003; 10:04:30 MDT - Msg ID: 101015)

People buying now --and-- people buying later

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlToday the WGC provided this indication of physical demand from India:

"Indian jewellers are reporting mixed activity. Some are still talking of postponing their buying in the expectation of a further price retreat, but others are reporting "hectic" buying, with demand expected to remain firm until the wedding season comes to an end in June."

Also, see the url above for weekly gold market recap.

R.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/08/2003; 10:22:50 MDT - Msg ID: 101016)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

Daniel Druff

(04/08/2003; 10:36:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101017)

Bonner

*** The price of gold fell again yesterday...dipping down to $322. Gold buyers are getting discouraged, which is what happens in the early days of a bull market. Two years ago, an ounce of gold sold for only $255. Even at today's price, gold is still up nearly 30% from its low 2 years ago. Is the bull market in gold already over? We cannot say. But never in the history of the world has a paper currency outlived gold. Maybe this is a New Era...but not likely.
***********************************************************

I couldn't have said it better myself.

DD

ski

(04/08/2003; 11:02:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101018)

Silver versus Gold market basics ....

Several individuals, including myself, have stated our belief that SILVER WILL OUTPERFORM GOLD IN PERCENTAGE TERMS. I think that it is worth discussing exactly HOW WILL WE KNOW IF THIS IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING OR NOT?

The answer to this question will certainly not be "rocket science" but I do think that it is worth answering so that no one in the future will be able to say, "Why didn't you tell me?" or "Gee, I never knew that."

...........................

So, how will we know if silver is outperforming gold?

Good answer #1 .... On a WEEKLY, MONTHLY, or YEARLY basis, the spot POS of silver will make bigger percentage gains than the gains for gold. (Notice that I did not use the word DAILY)

Good answer #2 .... On a WEEKLY, MONTHLY, or YEARLY basis, the average silver mining stock price will make bigger percentage gains than the average gold mining stock.

Suitable answer #1 .... Spot silver prices and silver mining stocks will "break out" and "lead the way" after market periodic lulls or corrections. Gold will follow the lead but usually on relatively lower volume and with lower percentage gains as noted in spot and stock prices.

Occasional answer #1 .... While the two metals USUALLY act like they are "jointed at the hip", there may be weeks, months or other periods of time where only silver is advancing. During these periods, gold may be stalled OR going down in price. I call this the "Great Silver Disconnect". I fully expect THE DISCONNECT to appear from time to time during this bull market.

Occasional answer #2 .... During a Silver Disconnect period, we will also see a silver-gold psychological disconnect. Silver owners will be happy and gold owners will be un-happy or less-happy.

Occasional answer #3 .... Positive silver news will have a greater positive market impact than positive gold news.

After a while answer #1 .... Individuals, institutions, and mutual funds will buy more silver related investments in percentage terms than gold investments.

After a while answer #2 ... silver will slowly lose it's "poor stepsister" image relative to gold.

ski

(04/08/2003; 11:30:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101019)

Silver versus Gold Market .... basics .... cont.

.... my final thought

The central reason why I wrote about the ACTUAL MEASURMENT OF SILVER PRICE PERFORMANCE versus GOLD is so that the group here at the forum may be among the first to benefit and therefore be the MOST to benefit.

Jim Dines, "A way to make money in the stock market (or any market), is to find an area with explosive growth and mindboggling potential; then investing in it AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE."

Make no mistake, I love gold and think that it has a excellent future. However, from an investment point of view, I want to be riding the BEST and THE FASTEST horse in the race. For forum participants, at the very least, you may want to have a strategy of "betting on both horses" PARTICULARLY if you can see from my list if indicators in my previous post THAT SILVER IS PERFORMING BETTER THAN GOLD!

The Great Silver Price Disconnect has not yet happened (although it might have started this week), I hope many here will have the wherewithal to benefit.... We've worked too hard, waited too long and have certainly paid all of our psychological dues to qualify us for admission.

Buena Fe

(04/08/2003; 11:48:23 MDT - Msg ID: 101020)

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=0P1KF2O3CJMUICRBAE0CFEY?type=worldNews&storyID=2529191what's to talk about? is gb a wc if there are no wmd found? who's going to prosecute?

Chirac, Annan to Join Russia-Germany Talks on Iraq
Tue April 8, 2003 11:39 AM ET
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Leaders of the main countries opposing the U.S.-led military campaign in Iraq will meet in Russia's second city of St Petersburg this weekend, the Kremlin said........

Daniel Druff

(04/08/2003; 11:53:27 MDT - Msg ID: 101021)

Can you top this?

The Two Worst Ideas of The Twentieth CenturyNumber 1...The Federal Reserve System

Number 2...and a very close second...The United Nations

DD

ps to ge...the doji comment yesterday was intriguing, imo... But what are they? And what do they look like? TIA

mikal

(04/08/2003; 11:53:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101022)

Excursions

We're on our way, it's just that so few notice.
You may have had a feeling in your car:
Attention is focused. Equipment and guages- check. Doors, windows, mirrors and seat belts-check. Start engine. Brakes are off, shifter is in, vision ok?
You're watching for the unexpected defensively, and your speed.
Only then when you're well along and unimpeded, you detect your progress and breathe deeply with satisfaction.
Maybe, like a pilot taxiing down a runway, registers liftoff.

Daniel Druff

(04/08/2003; 12:06:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101023)

Buena Fe

wmd...I think that means, "Weapons of Mass Destruction"
As I recall, sector has predicted that if we didn't find any, we would "probably" plant the stuff...so relax, gb is in good shape. [You really might focus on the very good bargins in the precious metals arena and enjoy the show.]

Best regards,
DD

a nation of one

(04/08/2003; 12:21:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101024)

jumper cable economics

To kick-start a TV, it needs to be plugged in. To successfully jump-start a car, its alternator will have to
produce some electricity. To shock-start a dying person, his heart is going to have to beat a few beats. And
even then some TVs can't be kick started; some cars can't be jump started; the best dead people reach the
point where they won't come back to life again no matter how much you shock them. Kicks cause bruises.
Jump too hard, and you get sore. Too ample a shock kills a person. It's like this economy of ours. Is it
plugged in? Is its alternator producing electricity? Can �good times� long ago be shocked into re-existence?
Or are the shocks, kicks, and jumps just making it deader? You can use a flat iron to press a shirt, but don't
try to fix a whiskey bottle with it. Open your eyes! This market economy is a dusty piece of worn out shoe
leather being shoved along the street by a thousand liars, flailed halfway to death already, jumper-cabled to
pieces, shocked to smithereens. What will remain? Mostly an unpleasant smell, an increasingly strong notion
on the part of wide awake people that the Federal Reserve should be hung from a limb, and gold's real value.

Daniel Druff

(04/08/2003; 12:40:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101025)

a nation of one

"...the Federal Reserve should be hung from a limb,..."
Some of our Founding Fathers would certainly agree with you.

DD

a nation of one

(04/08/2003; 12:48:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101026)

To Daniel Druff

That's only fair, because I agree with some of them.

Daniel Druff

(04/08/2003; 12:50:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101027)

Finally

The Iraqi National Congress is about to exact retribution. [IMO, children should be shielded from this action...no TV.]

DD

a nation of one

(04/08/2003; 12:51:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101028)

To Daniel Druff

Daniel, I was wondering yesterday -after one of your messages- whether you considered that perhaps an important 401K function may have been to enable government control over private funds to some extent.

Gonlyold

(04/08/2003; 13:26:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101029)

IRA's - Nix

There has been much talk of investing gold in IRA's. I have no problem with investing in gold, but "investing" in IRA's is another thing. Concerning IRA's, whether gold funded or FRN funded, it is difficult for me to withold using the five letter "F" word, F---D. Government misrepresentation is surely applicable. Perhaps you people can either confirm or deny my thoughts on this subject.

The whole idea presented to me for getting into an IRA was/is that you defer paying taxes on part of your income when you're in a higher income bracket. Then, when you retire, you are supposedly to withdraw and live on a smaller amount of dollars and thereby pay taxes on a lower tax bracket.

Typically, most of us earn less money when we first start out in the employment arena and are therefore already in a lower tax bracket. Concidering inflation, it is doubtful that you will ever be able to return to that level of income to live on when you retire. Most likely you will need more to maintain a comfortable life style in your retired future than your past earnings of 40 or 50 years ago. I believe you will have to live lower than a pauper to gain any tax advantage.

I suppose you could make a case for averaging over the years, but I don't see that thie will eliminate all the dieparity of inflation. It still comes down to needing more to live per year at the end of your life than at the beginning, especially if you have health problems. I cannot believe that the government has not factored this in when they initiated this misrepresentation. And they didn't tell me about this factor.

Besides inflation, there's the problem of life's little mishaps, in which infusions of money will often remedy. Of course, I supose that there are people who have their lives so well organized that they never find themsleves in a financial pinch, but I don't know too many of those. So the chances of early withdrawal in your IRA's is to be expected.

And with early withdrawals, there's the ever waiting penalties. Those fair tokens of recompense levied on you for breaking your agreement and using your own money to help yourself out. And additional taxes because these withdrawals are added to your present income resulting in you being placed in an even higher tax bracket. Oh, the marvelous dealings of our leaders. I'm sure they didn't realize that you would ever be in financial straits when they concocked this plan.

So with the penalties and additional taxes involved with early withdrawal, before the age of 59 1/2, this ends up being a windfall profits for the government, actually the bankers. Again, I cannot believe that the government has not factored this in when they initiated their misrepresentation.

I suppose there are other aspects to the IRA f---d, like the sustainability (?) of the dollar, but I think you get the gist of my position. So yes, buy gold, even save your FRN's, but I wouldn't put them in an IRA account. How do they say, "Too soon old, too late smart".

Feel free to send rocks or roses.

a nation of one

(04/08/2003; 13:30:41 MDT - Msg ID: 101030)

Reply to Gonlyold (04/08/03; 13:26:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 101029)

Your statement: "Perhaps you people can either confirm or deny my thoughts on this subject."

** I would confirm them.

a nation of one

(04/08/2003; 14:12:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101031)

To Gonlyold (04/08/03; 13:26:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 101029)

".... And they didn't tell me about this factor...."

It has been a very long time since any government ever did anything that was not in some way in its own
interest. What causes this is that governments are made up of people. No person can ever do anything unless
there is some way in which he can perceive it is beneficial to himself. The federal government has no
interest in whether the citizens are rich or poor, except to the extent it effects the amounts those elected to
government can spend, whether they can remain in office and get re-elected, stay out of trouble with those
more powerful than themselves, or for some similar reason. There is no government supported private
investment item written in law, which does not enable or enhance -in some way and to some extent- the
government's ability to influence or control what private individuals do with their own money. No one in
government ever spends one second serving the real needs of the people and cannot. If they did, they would
be bringing you dinner, washing your car, cutting your grass; not sending someone to do it, but doing it
themselves. Instead, what they do is busy themselves in pursuit of their personal goals -which includes
giving away money out of the public treasury so they will become more popular- enjoying and improving
their privileges, and making sure they get re-elected. Some of them believe that they themselves are doing
good. These are the ones that are doing the most harm. Any financial program the government puts into
effect will be intended to have results conforming to these criteria. Some would say that this is a tragic and
depressing point of view. All I can say is that what is real endures, and that everything else is froth.

Just the very concept of government is itself already a corruption.

R Powell

(04/08/2003; 14:12:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101032)

Silver

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm Ski, it is good to hear from you again. I'll take your return as a good silver omen.

I know we have both read just about everything we could find on the silver market which included a great deal by Ted Butler. I can find no fault in his fundamental analysis, though I have tried, but I do not share his views of market manipulation based on the fact that there are more contracts (open interest) for silver than there is silver. I don't dispute this fact, I just don't think it is unusual, certainly not illegal. However, I don't think a market exists that doesn't experience influence or pressure from large players. Manipulation versus ordinary trading is an even thiner line than that between a good bartender and a crook.

The COT you mentioned (I'm looking at 4/01/03) shows the Commercials short, the Large Specs neutral and the Small Specs long. I have been very impressed with the holding power of the so-called Small Specs who, I believe, may have taken the long side based on the fundamental belief that, long term, POS will appreciate. These small guys have held firm during the last rise and its subsequent decline. Are these silver bugs waiting for the big move?

I'm not at all sure that the traditional definitions or distinction between Commercials and Large Speculative (non-commercials) players holds true in the silver market. I say this as I don't think the yearly silver consumption passes through the Comex. The registered and eligible numbers vary somewhat but the total Comex holding never does. I question whether there is very much true commercial hedging at all. Rather, I see both the Commercials and Large Specs as speculative trend followers trading strickly for paper profit. Also, I don't share Butler's view that the Commercials always profit at the expense of the specs but I can substantiate this view other than to say that situation is often (always?) too complicated to evaluate. Many of these positions exist, constantly being rolled over, just to cover sold options. There are an infinite number of strategies involving the holding of both long and short positions with both futures and options at the same time. Some are positionally designed to profit from a price move, some are intentionally neutral to profit from option selling, etc. The combinations are endless. The net is position impossible to decipher. This is also my rational for judging the warnings of outrageous "notional" derivatives numbers, supposedly implying an impending financial disaster as total nonsense.

As of the 4/01/03 COT report, both the Commercials and Large Specs are short (although the specs are barely so) with the small specs long. I'm most encouraged that these small players did not panic (sell out) during POS's decline. The Commercials are still net short 16,000 contracts while silver may have bottomed (up today!) so they will suffer now if POS rises which she may.

Eventually, supply and demand fundamentals will override all the chartist trend following, Elliot wave moves, Indian predictions and ignorant analysts but, like Morgan and Butler, I wonder if the complete depletion of the remaining existing supply will be necessary to awaken potential buyers to the situation. Hey, there has never been any shortage, I have never seen existing supply expressed as a percentage of yearly use (standard evaluation formula for commodities), and even the perception of a shortfall in supply is not even considered by those whose actions determine price so, why are we surprised that POS does not react logically? I think this is precisely why your percentage gains prediction for POS is correct. What other (potentially predictable) situation could set up the doubling, tripling or more of the price of anything?

When I think of physical buyers of silver, I wonder how they will not profit. I'm certainly hoping for the same with paper investments but beware, the Exchange will raise margins (not retroactive) and price moves will become stunningly extreme causing irrational price action. Who knows, the government could easily justify (do they even bother justifing anymore?) intervening, stealing legitimate gains. OR, we might be overlooking something, somewhere...there are those who claim that vast unknown supplies of silver still exist.... Thoughts???
Rich

Daniel Druff

(04/08/2003; 15:01:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101033)

a nation of one

ABSOLUTELYa nation of one (04/08/03; 12:51:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 101028)
To Daniel Druff

Daniel, I was wondering yesterday -after one of your messages- whether you considered that perhaps an important 401K function may have been to enable government control over private funds to some extent.
***********************************************************

The idea of encouraging citizens to save for retirement - while supporting a bubble stock market - is fair play for a basically corrupt system. And IRA's, while sucking up funds, can provide emergency liquidity.

Please see: 21mabry (4/7/03; 14:50:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 100979)
money to the masses
"...how about congress passing a law that lets the small fry investors like me, cash in our beaten up 401k with no taxes or penalties due."

Wish I'd thought of it. The President just might request that Congress waive the penalities for early liquidation. Can you imagine what that might do in the right environment to the gold penny stocks?

DD

Mr Gresham

(04/08/2003; 15:03:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101034)

Roach

After his bout of introspection he concludes, very correctly: "Just because imbalances and excesses endure for longer than fundamentals suggest doesn't mean we have the fundamentals wrong. "

(Whether we have individually stayed solvent, in the Keynesian warning, while "markets" remained irrational, is another matter ;)

Roach sums up what we discuss here daily, i.e., the USD "medicine show" miracle. How does the world's biggest bunch of debtors in history get away with it?

The debtor who can't make his payments, on D-Day (Default) has several options:

(1) Die.
(2) Declare bankruptcy, with or without apology and contrition.
(3) Print more of the same green stuff the debt contracts are written in.
(4) Kill everyone else who gives him trouble about paying. (Watch out Repo Man!)
(5) Pull back between two oceans, draw the blinds, disconnect the phone, and don't open the mail! Oh... for about 20 years oughta do.

Probably some combination of all of the above. The longer this goes on, the more of them get added to the mix...

Daniel Druff

(04/08/2003; 15:51:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101035)

I think we're on the same page

Gonlyold (04/08/03; 13:26:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 101029)
IRA's - Nix
**********************************************************

The savings concept is perfect, imho, but all that red tape; not to mention the misunderstanding of what really is A Store of Value. Which happens to be one of the pillars of sound economics...a store of Value should not be dependent on man's word. [We lie once and awhile.]

DD

a nation of one

(04/08/2003; 15:55:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101036)

To: Daniel Druff (04/08/03; 15:01:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 101033)

21mabry said in msg#: 100979, "...how about congress passing a law that lets the small fry investors like me, cash in our beaten up 401k with no taxes or penalties due."

You replied, "Wish I'd thought of it. The President just might request that Congress waive the penalities for early liquidation. Can you imagine what that might do in the right environment to the gold penny stocks?"

** I don't think the government will ever do this. Those penalties were put in place to control that money. The taxes were applied because small investors are unable to get the government to do differently. Big investors sometimes *are* able to. It is in large part due to the money of big investors that office holders get elected, not the 'independent' votes, wishes, or assests of small investors, almost no matter how much they might want it to be otherwise.

eddiebhoy

(04/08/2003; 16:04:02 MDT - Msg ID: 101037)

golds disapearance

hello folks

just a short message to let you know that on the bbc's
business site that amazingly the price of gold is no longer
posted or worthy of comment what can this mean?

only last year they removed their stock markets values
postings box from the front news page to the the business
pages only (well after 2 years of downward spirals in the markets prices it was such a bind to the poor shareholders it really was the only thing to do in the circumstances
i mean poor henrieta was creastfallen about her losses)

is golds price range no longer worthy to appear to the
plebs that follow the business cycle?

is gold in the united kingdom really become something
that we should not talk about at dinner parties?

are we such poor dillusioned people that to save us from
further angst and depression that the only safe thing
to do was to stop us reading the true horror of the
price of our foolish and mad investment stategy

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

i dont know about you but as the beatles once sang
in the song penny lane.......... "VERY STRANGE"

and as aristotle says .......

buy as much as you possibly can with what worthless
paper you have left before its too late

goodness gracious me the horror of investing in gold

toodle pip chums

Aristotle

(04/08/2003; 16:04:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101038)

steady -- yesterday's comment for me (#: 100990)

You said:
"at one point i thought i understood u and what you where saying. then came the property / money debate. and now u busted out with the thought that the dinar wont be very good for gold."

First things first.

How did you form the conclusion, "won't be very good for Gold," from my recent comments? As the author, I can assure you that I had the opposite effect in mind.

Would you humor me with another look and tell me where my message failed its audience? Thanks, champ. I'll give you the intro portion right here for your convenience.

= = = = =
(4/2/03; msg#: 100781)
Marketing slogan for the Moslem part of the world-- "The Gold Dinar: A Krugerrand to call our own."

Somebody was soliciting opinions about the Islamic Gold dinar a few days ago. That slogan suggestion pretty much sums up my opinion. It's basically a Krugerrand with a religious endorsement. Given the Moslem population base, that's a mighty endorsement -- not something to be taken lightly.
= = = = =

On the property thing, that's all pretty straightforward, isn't it? Maybe... *TOO* straightforward?? Everyone overthinks it and gets unnecessarily lost in a muddle.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Daniel Druff

(04/08/2003; 16:17:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101039)

a nation of one

** I don't think the government will ever do this. Those penalties were put in place to control that money.
********************************************************

These guys are very clever with legislation...if the Democrats refuse to go along, I must assume that 21mabry will not be voting for them...this year. AB532...why not a U. S. Congress AB533...great idea, because rules are made to be changed anyway.

DD

CoBra(too)

(04/08/2003; 16:24:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101040)

@ R. Powell - Nice to have R. Russel come to similar results -

A Snippet from 321 Gold from Richard Russel -Seems to add some credence to my musings yesterday.
"Gold, like diamonds and Picassos...
Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
April 9, 2003

Extracted from the 8 April 2003 issue of Richard Russell's Dow Theory Remarks

Gold -- Last Friday and again on Monday June gold closed lower. But each day gold opened lower and then closed near its high for the day. Today gold actually opened higher at 321.70, but as I'm writing this in the morning (Tues) I obviously don't know how gold will close today.

Also, although gold closed lower for five days in a row, neither XAU or HUI confirmed by breaking to new lows. In fact, XAU and HUI made their lows on March 27 -- nine trading day ago. My conclusion is that there's a good chance that gold is either at its low or that gold is in the process of bottoming.

Gold may bounce around and back-and-fill for a few weeks to even a month or so, but I believe we are now watching the bottoming process in action. The clincher for gold bulls would be HUI closing at 124 or better -- or June gold closing above 326.00.

About gold -- I've suggested that subscribers refrain from trading gold. I see gold as a long-term insurance holding. Keep trading gold, and in due time you'll trade yourself out of your position.

What I advise is that you take a position that you can "live with," and then sit tight with that position. Your position might be half coins and half gold stocks. My suggestion is that your gold position be 7% to 10% of your assets.

You don't trade your life insurance policy and you don't trade your house. Furthermore, it's probably a good thing that you don't price your insurance policy and you don't price your house every day or every week. They're simply assets that you hold. Your attitude towards gold should be the same.

Let me put it this way. A hundred years from now your house won't exist, the dollar won't exist, you won't exist, your portfolio won't exist, and who knows whether the world as we know it will exist. But gold will exist. Gold, like diamonds and Picassos, will still be money. I'll bet on that, and if I'm wrong I'll pay off our bet in the year 2103...

More follows for subscribers. . .

Richard Russell
Apr 9, 2003
***

steady

(04/08/2003; 17:03:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101041)

aristotle.

we are on the same page! my mistake. oh wait... maybe i got the book open and am on page one sentance one and u are on the last page last sentance. both say the same thing. gold get u sum!

R Powell

(04/08/2003; 17:45:25 MDT - Msg ID: 101042)

CoBra(too)

Mr. Russell agrees...... Have you been sharing our thoughts with Mr. Russell again or did he come up with that on his own?

There aren't too many with a better long term record than Richard Russell and my technical analysis has been proven, by past performance, as sorely lacking in accuracy, so I'll gladly make a mental note of the HUI at 124 (currently 120.48) and the June gold at 326 (currently 323). In general, I'd like to see some bottoming POG action along with an upside move along with some basing and upside in the HUI to convince myself to go long again. I agree with your physical buying philosophy (especially the elegantly affordable and beautiful to behold silver) but I do have some speculative monies that also need managing.

Joe Kernan of CNBC fame was talking about company earnings this morning instead of the war. Are the equities markets returning to the normal bull versus bear battle with the usual financial considerations back in play? If so, imho many the POG positive forces will be re-entering the limelight again. Maybe this time they'll be prominent enough to steer some investment/safe-haven money our way. It's hard to argue with Hamilton's real negative interest return viewpoint and the numerous continuing stock market bear arguments. Onward! Let the war end and the financial games resume!! On a more sober note, may the gods grant us peace and much higher metals' prices.
Rich

Paper Avalanche

(04/08/2003; 18:50:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101043)

OK, suppose you are Alan

You are intelligent, well studied, and well aware of the precarious state of your paper "dollar" in the world today. In light of the introduction of the Euro, you have the following options available to you:

1. Hyper-inflate the US$ to avoid a Japan style deflation. If this should come to pass, then you risk becoming the 21st century's John Law.

2. Do nothing and allow the repatriation of offshore dollars, as the Euro becomes the preferred reserve currency of international trade, to effectively accomplish the inflation sought in option #1. Additionally, with options one and two, you risk the possibility that trading partners (Iraq - now referred to as state #51, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc.) who supply vital commodities (oil) decide not to conduct transactions in valueless paper.

3. You secure the oil reserves of your trading partners and do an end run around those (Euro faction) who seek to supplant the US$ as the world reseve currency. Simultaneoulsly with your country's effort to secure said oil assets you introduce a new currency that has the same gold "friendly" (not to be read as backing) characteristics as the Euro. The need for the Euro then becomes a matter of preference rather than demand.

If the new pink dollars are simply a new design to counter counterfeiting I would ask the following:

1. Why the rescheduling of the release of said new notes following the unexpected resistance of combatants in Iraq (originally scheduled to be rolled out on 3/27)? Such implies that the original plan was to secure Iraq's oil fields quickly and likewise do the same with the new Ameri/Euro notes?

2. Why did Paul Oneil say that the new dollars would be released at the prescribed date "but sooner if neccesary?" prior to his departure?

3. Why no image released for public consumption of said pink dollars if there did not exist new verbage on the new notes that commit to something other than the full faith and credit of the US?

Food for thought.

PA

BTW, I am willing to make a bet with the first acceptor that a new US currency will be rolled out in the next 60 days. If I am wrong I will pay to the acceptor $100. If the acceptor is wrong they agree to send a check or money order to St. Jude's Children Hospital in Memphis, TN.

It's go time.

Daniel Druff

(04/08/2003; 18:54:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101044)

Chris Powell

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/bcreg/2003/20030408/default.htmGATA might consider sending the appended link to Mr. Mulder(sp?) and any other analysts who think there is no official management of the markets.

Paper Avalanche

(04/08/2003; 18:56:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101045)

Qualification of previous post

I just posted the following:

"If the acceptor is wrong they agree to send a check or money order to St. Jude's Children Hospital in Memphis, TN."

This should read:

"If the acceptor is wrong they agree to send a check or money order in the amount of $100 to St. Jude's Children Hospital in Memphis, TN."

I apologize for the change.

Thanks! PA

R Powell

(04/08/2003; 19:12:49 MDT - Msg ID: 101046)

Good reading

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm Here's a little piece of today's offering...

"Plain and simple, intervention into the markets, whether it's currency or any other type, is a normal practice of government. Pick up any of today's economic textbooks and you will find the virtues according to today's Keynesian or monetary school of thought throughout the entire economic textbook. The government is always intervening in the economy or the markets every year in an effort to affect economic and financial outcomes or influence the behavior of businesses or individuals. This is simply how our economy and financial markets work. Each year depending on where the economy rests, various policy initiatives are proposed in order to influence economic outcomes. During times of recession, the Fed lowers interest rates and expands credit in order to stimulate the economy. When the Fed intervenes into the financial markets and lowers interest rates, they influence the financial markets in both stocks and bonds. Lower interest rates make it more economical to borrow. Lower interest rates affect bond prices, the rates on commercial paper and the discounting mechanism used to measure and evaluate future earnings. To say the government does not intervene in the financial markets to affect financial and economic outcomes is strewn with error. There are too many examples on a regular basis that indicate otherwise."

silvercollector

(04/08/2003; 19:58:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101047)

Mr. Gresham

I like your message 100963, interesting concept. I think I'm developing a picture that I need to fully understand before I dive into head first.

A year or so ago my next door neighbor and I debated the virtues of selling our (identical) homes and 'moving up' into a nicer home. He borrowed the 50 grand and did it, I stayed at home. I can't see anymore upside to this real estate game. Interest rate hikes will stop this train in a heartbeat.

I want to take my 50 K and sink it into something that's going to inflate not something that HAS inflated. Yes, I can afford the interest payments. (some has already made it's way into golden leverage)

In 2002 I tried a little experiment. I borrowed 5k on the line of credit. When it got to 8k I sold out, after tax on gains and interest and blah, blah, blah I had about $1500 profit. It went straight into metal. Did I do the right thing, was it risky, was the leverage required????

My little rant over the last week that I think a few have noticed and a couple have commented on is finding the next bull run. I believe gold has a good shot. I am playing a prudent game, but I am looking to diverify into another safe haven, is there one?

I think food is undervalued. Hasn't the price of food been dirt cheap over the last few years. Cheap might be the wrong word, perhaps the 'price has been flat' is a better phrase. How does one buy food without buying physical food?
This thought goes back to my McHappy meal rant on the week-end. It's been 5 bucks (and possibly has fallen a touch) for a few years.

I love Ari's staunch comeback yesterday. I told him to get off his 'high horse'; he tells me to get off my 'low horse'. Don't you just love the guy!!! I will think of something crafty for the old badger!!

Have a golden day.

a nation of one

(04/08/2003; 19:59:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101048)

To Daniel Druff (04/08/03; 16:17:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 101039)

"...great idea, because rules are made to be changed anyway."

*** To me that just proves they seldom get them right.

ski

(04/08/2003; 20:01:57 MDT - Msg ID: 101049)

R. Powell .... on silver

R. Powell, thanks for the lengthy comment and insight. Won't it be interesting when the COMEX traders finally lose control and the POS will finally be determined by supply and demand fundamentals? Some of the wise investors from the past have said that "When markets are at either extreme ... they do not operate on fundamentals." Like you, I have sifted, filtered, twisted, and investigated all of the silver arguments for a very long time and have yet to find even ONE serious flaw to a price explosion theory.

A couple of quotations come to mind...

1. R. Prechter "The truth is that making money in markets is normally difficult; in fact, for most people, it is impossible."

2. Author unknown, "Conventional wisdom has an incredible pull and consequently always has a profound impact on investmnet markets that directly correlate to it.... Markets make opinions." (In silver, the ingrained "Conventional Wisdom" is at odds with the facts.)

3. Jerome Smith "Truly outstanding investment opportunities occur only occasionally. In general, opportunities are normally long term in their maturation, and by careful study can be foreseen long before they come to the attention of most investors."

4. J. Dines "He who is first must always look wrong by definition."

Clink!

(04/08/2003; 20:02:29 MDT - Msg ID: 101050)

When will it be gold's turn ?

Wow ! Spot Platinum from $603 to $630 in the last 24 hours. Let's at least hope this a leading indicator !

C!

21mabry

(04/08/2003; 20:12:57 MDT - Msg ID: 101051)

Natural Gas

Black Blade, I heard on news today natural gas supplies are at there lowest level since the late 1970s.They said its the lowest since the started using the present system of measuring it. Daniel Druff, I am so jaded by the system I have to force myself to go and vote.21

21mabry

(04/08/2003; 20:17:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101052)

(No Subject)

Silver collecter, I do things like that to.I will take 6 month no interest cash on credit cards,put it in a CD and take the profit at the end of 6 months.Its not alot but its enough for groceries for a week,plus its financial education.

Daniel Druff

(04/08/2003; 20:39:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101053)

21mabry

You got it!21mabry (04/08/03; 20:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 101052)
(No Subject)
"...I will take 6 month no interest cash on credit cards,put it in a CD and take the profit at the end of 6 months." 21mabry
**********************************************************

You've found the system's fatal flaw...free money (cough) should be put into precious metals...that is exactly what the establishment will do when we reach the end game. They will loan themselves millions and billions of dollars/yen/euro's/etc and buy you know what.

DD

contrarian

(04/08/2003; 20:57:34 MDT - Msg ID: 101054)

paper avalanche, i think you're on the money

Probably O'Neill was let go because he was too much of a talker, and the machinations now going on require secrecy. Many plans in making and Iraq is only part of the money picture as you describe. Seems to be all connected with this new money. Some sort of gold connection seems plausible, as preliminary designs aren't anywhere to be found. Don't you think the public would be informed in advance if this was simply a run-of-the-mill paper bill upgrade--as to what the new paper would look like, etc.?

Consequently I have to conclude something fishy's going on. Perhaps gold will be allowed free once the new paper is inaugurated? And those meetings with Greenspan and the White House show they're cooking up something I think beyond the usual machinations.

21mabry

(04/08/2003; 21:13:40 MDT - Msg ID: 101055)

prices

I have been looking through a refrence book of prices of things from 1880 until 2001.Someone said something about food prices. Some may find this hard to believe but according to this book alot of everyday common foods are cheaper now than in the 1970s, and I dont mean with figuring in inflation.An example off the top of my head was prices for round steak,it was pretty close to todays price of round steak when its on sale.It seemed alot of meats common cuts are pretty close in price,things like flour and rice was cheaper in some cases,I cant get specific,I dont have book with me. Appliances are cheaper today, a 19 inch tv was 179 dollars in the 70s even without inflation they are cheaper today. just some info for everyone.

mikal

(04/08/2003; 21:19:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101056)

@Paper Avalanche, Contrarian

http://www.moneyfactory.comInteresting posts. Read:
'The New Color of Money: Safer, Smarter, More Secure'
This site from our Bureau of Engraving and Printing is also slated to carry updates on this. I won't get too excited unless it's actually flameproofed with gold foil!

bugs

(04/08/2003; 22:02:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101057)

21mabry

While I don't have any hard stats to quote, the figures you are reading are probably right on. Farmers in the beef industry have signficantly increased output since the 70's vs cost, due to process efficiencies (automation), and advances in science (some say to the detriment). Electronics production is also significantly more optimised and built out. It's pretty amazing how far we've come in the CPU design/computer space over the past decade, and how much uncharted territory remains. But what do I know? not very much. I wonder.. is it possible to have significant technology advances without subsequent financial bubbles? maybe a dumb question..

Black Blade

(04/08/2003; 22:13:04 MDT - Msg ID: 101058)

Cobra(too) , 21 mabry, and all

CoBra(too) (usagold.com msg#: 101040): The more I read Rich Russell's work the more I like it. Of course I have been a follower of "Dow Theory" as well to some extent. He explains exactly what I try to tell people. I listen to people moan and complain about how much they lost in the stock market and how poorly their 401K plans have performed. Then when I tell them about balancing their portfolios with precious metals (and basic preparation) they cringe and say something to the effect that gold has not done well or that it is for survivalist types, etc. I calmly explain that it is simply portfolio insurance just the same as life insurance, auto insurance, health insurance, liability insurance, etc. Then I tell them how precious metals smooth out the volatility of an investment portfolio. Then when I see them some time later they forgot everything I told them and give the same old tired arguments about gold as an investment and past performance (usually that it has fallen in price from that short blip at $850 an ounce). It is hard to break old habits I guess. Many just can't seem to shake the expectations of "bubble mania" investments. I have had some success with a few but most just can't seem make the connection.

21mabry (usagold.com msg#: 101051): A couple of weeks ago NatGas storage hit all time low levels. Last week there was a slight injection of 37 bcf due to mild temperatures. Still, drill rig counts are at low levels (782) and well below the working 1100+ drill rigs that were drilling NatGas a couple of years ago. Even then there was only a net gain of 2% NatGas production. A deepening economic recession and mild temperatures (warmest winter on record) led to a huge build up of NatGas supply. This last winter resulted in very strong demand. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your perspective) we are facing a possible energy crisis that will make the energy crisis of two years ago seem like a walk in the park. A normal summer with increased energy demand (air conditioner season) and a normal winter (heating season) threatens to increase energy costs significantly later this year. There are a number of reasons including lack of bank financing for drilling programs, not to mention credit downgrades requiring cutbacks in production and sales from storage to meet the new debt demands, restricted access to public lands, delayed permitting process (drill permits and pipeline construction permitting - right of way problems), limited pipeline capacity, lack of necessary infrastructure, shutdown of older "dirty" power plants (mostly old coal and oil fired power plants closed due to high costs associated with carbon credits under the "clean air act"), NIMBY, etc. Some industry people I have talked to are content to just "let the system fail" in order to "force the issue" at the legislative level. As I see it we are going to be very lucky to make it through next winter (especially if it is a cold winter).

All: What a long day it has been. I went to my CPA today and cut a check for Uncle Sam. It's that time of year again. I really need that cold Negra Modelo tonight!

- Black Blade

The Invisible Hand

(04/08/2003; 22:14:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101059)

Question # 4 for/by PA

http://www.accessatlanta.com/ajc/news/0502/15currency.htmlSNIP from this old article (05/15/2002) of the Atlanta Journal Constitution:
How color might prevent the next counterfeiting boom was something that no U.S. official would discuss. "It all depends on the combination of colors used," said Paul Marsch of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.
Canadians have been printing colored money for over 66 years, but counterfeiting there remains a problem. The color now used in Canadian notes does nothing against counterfeiting, said Marsch, "but the potential is there."
==
More indication that pink dollars linked to gold?

mikal

(04/08/2003; 22:19:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101060)

Unparalleled Standard

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/wilson040903.htmlThe Unparalleled Standard by Michael Wilson -Excerpts:
"Carefully hidden, guillotined gold sheets, coins, plates, and ingots have been many times in history the difference between life and death, war and peace, poverty and prosperity. To the bride in Calcutta, gold is the pith of independence and security in the midst of an uncertain marriage, a financial, economic, or natural disaster. Handcrafted 22 Karat bangles, necklaces, or 10 tola bars minted in Zurich and sometimes illegally smuggled in from Dubai, are handed down from generation to generation remaining unchanged for millennia. To the diligent African farmer, pure gold beads and baubles allow him or her to save in something other than the local currency, which in many an African country, has a history of crumbling with each new political assemblage. The European has always relied many times only on gold. The English having a defacto gold standard beginning in 1717 and a full legal standard from 1821. The French and their franc, the Portuguese and their escudo, the Dutch and their guilder. All originally some of the most powerful and globally accepted gold coins now turned paper. Those who were able to put away gold and silver coins during the German hyper inflation following World War I, came out ahead and maintained not only their purchasing power but the preservation of their wealth. In more modern times, it was the independent Japanese citizen who removed more than 64,000 ounces of gold from the world markets due to many unsuccessful attempts by the Japanese government to "re-inflate" it's economy. Gold is financial independence in the hands of any and all that realize and understand that 6,000 years of immutable credibility cannot be refuted by any measure we would care to even consider.
The historical precedent teaches us that every civilization in history that terminated it's gold or bimetallic system or standard (i.e. gold and silver backing), and allowed fiat money to become the basis of commerce, disintegrated over time just like the fibrous paper in circulation today. Usually only resuming the honest system after an economic catastrophe has occurred. Fiat "money" always depreciates into what it is essentially worth. Pesos, Dollars, Euros, and Yen might as well be sanitary toilettes, if they are only backed by the sheer human faith in the issuing government to remain honest.
There is much ingenuity, sweat, and capital that go into the production of this essential element. Wall Street financial advisors have foolishly claimed gold to be a "barbaric relic" from the past that has no future as a monetary store of value. Analysts have been widely known to sway investors away from gold and into paper assets paying them bigger commissions. Usually they claim that the latter classes of investments are at an all time low and they can only go up. People these days will say anything to get paid. Current ratios show that the U.S. stock market is no where near the bottom, yet investors continually pour in hoping for that rebound. Gold is a commodity that has been in a 20-year depression. It is an element that is essential to many facets of modern life and in many areas irreplaceable. Gold is currently facing an increasing supply/demand shortfall and is being artificially suppressed by entities that trade in more paper than Charmin. Based on these factors alone it would not be too far fetched to conclude that gold is heading toward an explosion in its market price if and when the derivative situation is halted.....
Gold is the oldest word in the English language still in continuous use today. The most referred to element in the bible. The most sought after commodity throughout history after food, shelter, and land was gold. If it were not for gold's existence, the daily items that we take for granted could not have been conceived.
It is with this sunny yellow metal that we are able to have computers, and dependable circuitry for electronic equipment. It is gold's superb reflectivity of infrared rays that allow us to have UV protected sunglasses, hand held lasers for surgical procedures, or solar energy panels that provide environmentally friendly electricity. It is due to gold's unchallenged malleability, ductility, and electrical conductivity that we are able to have microchips that get smaller and faster year by year. The same aforementioned properties make nano-technology a viable possibility. Non-heat dependent catalytic converters, controlled radiation dispersal through cancer-fighting implants, safety....."

Black Blade

(04/08/2003; 22:37:21 MDT - Msg ID: 101061)

Fed refining emergency rescue plan

http://www.suntimes.com/output/business/cst-fin-fed08.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON--Confronting new fears of recession, the Federal Reserve is refining an emergency economic rescue plan that includes further interest rate cuts and billions of dollars in extra cash for the banking system. The Fed's effort would be aimed at pulling the country out of a nosedive that has seen 465,000 jobs evaporate in just the past two months, raising fears among economists that the weak recovery from the 2001 recession is in danger of stalling out altogether. ''Clearly, the Fed is in uncharted territory,'' said economist David Jones. ''I think they will try some experimental moves.''

One key element hasn't been used successfully in a half-century. Based on comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other Fed officials, the central bank is expected to move beyond its traditional buying and selling of short-term Treasury securities held by banks to the direct purchase of longer-term securities in an effort to influence long-term interest rates.

Also, Fed officials have indicated they are prepared in the event of an unexpected shock to the system to lend massive amounts of money directly to commercial banks to make sure financial markets do not freeze up.

As a third policy option, Fed officials have indicated they would explicitly state that if the federal funds rate is moved below its current 1.25 percent, it probably will stay at the lower level as long as needed to get the economy on its feet--which would help investors' worries about a sudden jump in interest rates down the road.

Black Blade: Not really surprising. The US economy remains mired in a deepening recession-depression. The smooth talk is no longer being believed as consumers with shrinking bank accounts realize "the emperor wears no clothes". As workers see pink slips handed out more often and as they struggle to dig themselves out of under crushing debt they tend to view dubious government statistics with suspicion, as it does not match up with what they perceive as reality. The current secular bear market has wiped out the so-called "wealth effect" of the dot.com 1990's and consumers are like deer frozen in the headlights. It gets much worse from here. Don't be surprised to see the Fed try some unorthodox measures.

Ananse

(04/08/2003; 22:45:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101062)

The Middle Kingdom

http://quote.bloomberg.com/cgi-bin/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=William%2520Pesek%2520Jr.&touch=1&s1=pesek&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_bbco&bt=ad_bottom_bbco&s=APmvz4RTtQ2hpbmEnWhile in S. Korea about a month ago, I read the article linked above by William Pesek Jr. in the S. Korea Times. It was there titled: China's Fragile Economic Foundation which is, I think, a more apt title.

Snippets:
"Japan's bad-loan crisis gets all the headlines these days, but China's debt problems also are mounting and casting a shadow over its near-term role in the global economy. Rising non-performing loans could cause a credit crunch and undermine growth. And if Beijing doesn't act, it will face Japan-like financial woes. That's a problem because Chinese households lack the vast wealth of the Japanese."

"Outgoing Premier Zhu Rongji �call[ed]for the state to continue pumping massive resources into the economy. Otherwise, China won't grow at the annual 7 percent or more needed to maintain social stability."

"Zhu wants banks to focus lending on consumers, public-works projects and small businesses -- areas of the economy most likely to produce jobs in a nation with unemployment at a 22-year high." � "Bad loans are estimated to be 40 percent or more of gross domestic product."

China's debt problems also are mounting and casting a shadow over its near-term role in the global economy - China's stated goal is to be number 3 by 2020. Can they make it happen? If so, it will truly be a "great leap forward" within 40 years of opening to the West. China has already come a long way and it is certainly a player in the global economy. With your permission, I'd like to share some of my experiences and observations about China. I hope you find them interesting and thought-provoking.

Twenty-two years ago - 1980-81 - I was a "foreign expert" in a city in northeastern China. China was just emerging from the excesses of Maoism and the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution (GPCR). In late October, 1980, a colleague, my family and I flew to Hong Kong. There were no flights into China. From HK, we took a boat to Guangzhao where we were met by a government tourist guide and escorted to dinner and then to the train station where we boarded the train we would be on for the next three days as we journeyed to Beijing. At Beijing, our school's representatives met us and helped us buy appropriate clothing for the far north. Then we boarded another train for the last part of our journey.

As we settled in, we slowly discovered that everything was government owned and rationed - there wasn't enough of anything. Not heat, not food, not even bath water. Quality and quantity was strictly controlled; who you were determined what you got. Everyone - even foreigners - were given coupons for rice that specified the amount and the grade.

Heat was by coal and coal like everything else was rationed, so buildings were cold with the exception of hotels reserved for visitors� use. Cold meant that when I spilled some of the "white tea" AKA hot water that I was sipping, it froze on contact with the floor. Transportation was by bus and bicycle; small horses pulling carts were common. Cars belonged to party cadres not individuals.

Part of our arrangement was that one third of our pay would be converted to dollars and sent home. The rest was paid in cash; the largest bill was a 10 yuan note. No one could understand why we needed to take some of China's desperately needed foreign reserves and send it to the USA when we weren't living there. (I don't think we ever did convey the concept of loan payments.) It was necessary for us to go to the bank and arrange this exchange and explain how to do it. When we walked into the bank, rows of clerks were sitting on high stools with ledgers, brushes, inkstones and abacus in front of them recording accounts. It was dark and dim in the bank and I felt like I'd entered Dickensonian England.

�Things� weren't so good but most of the people that we dealt with were.
They had suffered terribly during the GPCR, but everyone was working to rebuild their lives and country. In February of 1982, I walked across a field to board an old Russian airliner to fly from my city to Beijing where several days later, I was placed on a flight to HK. Changes were underway.

Fast forward to January, 2001, when I had the opportunity to spend about a week in China. I spent most of the time in Shanghai with a brief jaunt to Shenyang. High rise office buildings were everywhere - some unoccupied, I think - with bright lights left on all night; freeways - rather than rail - had been built to transport people to the center of the cities from the vast new airports filled with duty free shops staffed by young ladies waiting to help the occasional customer. In Shenyang, my escort and I were taken to dinner in a local hot spot - a restaurant specializing in Ching Dynasty cuisine. Shortly after we were seated, the table had so many dishes on it that some went untouched.

China has set a rapid pace to achieve its place in the sun making no secret of its goal to replace the USA as the world's superpower - complete with having Chinese replace English as lingua franca. My concern is that China's drive to achieve preeminence so quickly will backfire because it is failing to build up the necessary infrastructure - a sound banking system being one of those things. (MK has mentioned his concerns about this several times) From the article above, it sounds as if China is following on the heels of Japan and the US.

Pesek ends with, "Lost in the hype and excitement about China's boom is its fragile financial system. The blame for that goes to the same people congratulating themselves in Beijing right now. If they don't act soon, they could have a crisis on their hands."

Black Blade

(04/08/2003; 22:45:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101063)

CHECKING THE BULL'S VITALS: WAS WALL STREET LISTENING?

http://www.nypost.com/business/72899.htm
By JOHN CRUDELE

Snippit:

April 8, 2003 -- TO Wall Street, corporate and Washington fat cats:

With the war in Iraq going well and the stock market responding as we all expected with a very nice rally, you might have a good feeling about Wall Street getting its bull back. Uh, uh!

Investors may be cheering developments in Iraq, but the bull is still chopped meat unless you guys finally decide to give in to investors' demands for some fundamental and extensive changes in the way you do business.

Black Blade: An "interesting" and "entertaining" read on the stock market by Crudele. It should probably be titled "How Wall Street Really Works".

slingshot

(04/09/2003; 00:09:03 MDT - Msg ID: 101064)

Paper Avalanche Msg#101043

Acceptor on conditionI find your challenge very enticing. Yes, I have made a copy of your post. I have read Mikal's post Msg# 101056 with the Link WWW. Moneyfactory.com which stated the release of the colored money to be in the fall. This may have put you at a disadvantage. I do not remember at any point a monentary bet being made at USAGOLD. So with the tradition that one Knight can not profit from anothers Knights disadvantage, I will donate $100 US to St Jude's Children's Hospital in Memphis,Tenn. if you do the same. Thereby making this a simple Gentlemen's bet. Please confirm.
Slingshot-------------------------<>

Black Blade

(04/09/2003; 00:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 101065)

Asian Markets Tank

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets tumble into negative territory and Euro markets start off in the red.

- Black Blade

Aristotle

(04/09/2003; 03:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101066)

ski, ski, ski... What the heckski? (#: 101049)

You said, "Won't it be interesting when the COMEX traders finally lose control and the POS will finally be determined by supply and demand fundamentals?"

You do realize, don't you, that the price of silver coming out of New York is currently determined by the supply and demand for those standard COMEX futures contracts? Do you not currently accept the premise that that market pairs one unit of buying interest with one unit of selling interest, and vice versa? How much more perfectly "fundamental" can the market get than that?

Or *or* OR... if we bend this around to the parallel problem that I strive to explain with the Gold market, (being funked up by a legacy of monetary usage,) are you willing to join me in saying that we can't fairly build a pricing market on a market-maker's instrument that has a limitless amount of paper substitutes which serve the supply side of the fundamental supply/demand equation, and that is furthermore susceptible to asymetric/elastic rules of contract enforcement?

Soooooo,,, if you want a return to REALLY meaningful supply/demand fundamentals, my friend, then the good choice ahead of us is a cash-on-the-barrelhead sorta physical-metal-only market to serve the purposes of price discovery. But here I'm talkin' Gold -- in a unique role as "an important element" among global financial reserves such as this age doesn't know in true form. On the other hand, the dominant industrial use for silver will likely drive hedging practices as with other common commodities, carrying always our now familiar asymetric pricing effects.

Again, as things currently stand, an endless printable supply of paper contracts coupled with gullible (and skeptical) demand of those same contracts are the two halves of the supply/demand fundamentals that are being used for pricing our real metals in New York. Laughable, I know, yet that scene is partially how and why Gold (silver) can and is bargain-priced like an abundant item, and will remain so for only as long as 1) significant investor buying pressure is diverted into paper substitutes, along with adequate distress selling to meet remaining physical demand; and above all, only as long as 2) the illusory paperGold practices are tolerated/supported by central banks.

Fortunately for Gold advocates like me who would like to see an avenue (such as doesn't currently exist) for perfection in a vehicle for sound and honest savings, the Eurosystem is by subtle appearances leaning against the old dollarsystem tolerance/endorsement of paperGold. Free Gold, baby, Free Gold. When the chains come off, to da mooooooon.....

Gold. Get you some perfect savings. --- Aristotle

Black Blade

(04/09/2003; 04:31:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101067)

Strange Pre-Market Action (Again)

Right on schedule a deluge of market index futures buying emerged at 6 am (est) raising sharply lowered US market index futures to nearly break even. The dollar rebounded off the lows and gold came off a solid performance in overnight trade. Hmmm...

The war is over! A rumor going around this morning is that Saddam and youngest son Qusay were wounded in the most recent bomb attack and were evacuated to Tikrit and then to Mosul where loyalists are attempting to eventually take them to Syria for medical attention. Oldest son Uday was rumored to have been killed. How reliable this rumor is I don't know, but I suspect that this will be an excuse for the sudden rebound in the markets.

- Black Blade

Paper Avalanche

(04/09/2003; 05:25:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101068)

@ slingshot

You are on! Sixty days from yesterday is June 7th. I hope that we are not infringing on the forum rules in this attempt to make my predictions "interesting." In any event, it will benefit a terrific cause.

You are the first acceptor to my challenge. I will only make one gentleman's wager regarding this prediction. No other acceptors please. A hundred clams is my limit.

Let the games begin!

Paper Avalanche

Topaz

(04/09/2003; 06:13:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101069)

Thank-you USAGold-CPM.

...and Staff. My FIRST Napoleon arrived today and I AM impressed...with the Coin, Packaging, Delivery and overall commitment to quality service your Firm continues to provide to Gold and it's desciples.
Bravo!

Topaz

(04/09/2003; 06:44:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101070)

@PA et al...new currency.

What an excellent pre-emptive strategy eh? New money (Notes) embedded with a Gold filament @ a face-value/Gold ratio of (say) $200K/Oz. Makes FoA's $30K look timid...Nah!

Henri

(04/09/2003; 07:28:57 MDT - Msg ID: 101071)

Aristotle Msg 100954

I really liked your comment

"...As a rule, from the deepest darkest roots of the mountain you emerge the same way you climb to its summit -- one step at a time. But then again, if you don't know where you're going, *any* path will take you there. So have a care."

A group of my younger scouts recently got lost in the woods while playing a game where they were not supposed to leave the roads. They had with them maps and compasses because they were "prepared" :-).

As it turned out once they were lost they could not answer the simple question "Where do you belong?" None of them knew the name of the cabin or even the name of the large Scout Camp where we were staying. Turned out there were several large encampments associated with the scouts in the same area and when they asked directions to the "scout camp", they were sent in good faith in various and often conflicting directions by local residents who all knew where the nearest camp was.

Somewhere in here there is a great lesson in life. The root cause of their trial was that they never thought it important to know where they started and so when they were separated from it, they did not know how to return and no one could help them. All the maps and compasses in the world will not help you find your way "Home" if you don't know where "home" is!

For mankind, I am convinced that "Home" is where we began. A place we departed long ago when all was provided for us because we were not separated from it. There we did not need gold or money to live a full life. Why do we feel we need such things now? Perhaps this is the greatest challenge life has to offer. Having come this far, how do we ever get home?

ski

(04/09/2003; 08:19:57 MDT - Msg ID: 101072)

(No Subject)

Aristotle ... Do you own any meaningful silver investments?

Yes _______ No________

a nation of one

(04/09/2003; 09:03:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101073)

Henri (4/9/03; 07:28:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 101071)

What a great story. It is has all the elements of a truly valuable lesson and is entertaining to boot.

21mabry

(04/09/2003; 09:05:20 MDT - Msg ID: 101074)

silver

Everybody seems to be talking silver. Silver was my first foray into pm. I have gotten into gold since then, but I still own my silver. This may not be educated reason, but I always assumed it would be much easier for silver to double in value than for gold to. This was long before I knew about this forum or Ted butler or anything. I just thought silver could double to 10 dollars and common people could still afford to buy and invest in it. I know this is a gold board but silver was for me like that first girl you loved, she is always special in some way.

Aristotle

(04/09/2003; 09:19:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101075)

ski -- "meaningful silver investment"

The rascally part of me wants to answer, "There is no such thing."

But that's not completely fair, is it? There are some excellent pieces by Paul Revere and Hester Bateman that would *serve* anyone very well.

"Tea, anyone?"

Henri, great post, thanks!!! Worth serving up on Old Sheffield plate.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

mikal

(04/09/2003; 09:47:30 MDT - Msg ID: 101076)

Re: Silver

Re: "Free gold. Free gold. When the chains come off, to da moooooon."

a nation of one

(04/09/2003; 09:53:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101077)

In chasms wide and chasms deep, the dragons all their treasures keep....

Here is a story about gold I heard some time ago.

A man went on a journey and had to pass through a wilderness. While there he ventured upon a dragon. It
was fierce, and its fire scorched him. They fought, but the man was defeated and barely escaped.

As he was recovering his strength he saw the dragon go into a cave, and when he was ready he went in after
it. There were stashes and piles of gold glittering in the dim light, more gold than the man had ever
imagined. But the dragon saw him and they fought again and the man lost and almost didn't get out alive. He
vowed to return one day and kill the dragon and get the gold.

He completed his journey and for many years merely went on with his daily life, doing his work as well as he
could, and living as wisely as he knew how, thinking toward the day when he would return and get the
dragon's gold.

A decade passed. Then two. And three. And soon the man was entering middle life. He knew that his chance
would pass if he did not go and get the treasure soon. He was not at all sure that he could do it. But he
prepared. He shored up his courage, gathered provisions, resolved his will. When he went off into the
wilderness again he knew only that he wanted to succeed. He had no idea whether he would win or not.

The land had changed. It no longer looked the way it had. But he searched, and in a little while he found the
cave.

What he had not realized was that nothing stays the same. In performing his own work day-to-day, his
abilities had improved, his wisdom had grown, he had acquired more strength, his knowledge of the material
world had increased. And therefore when he came upon the treasure again, the dragon was no match for him.
Also, the dragon had aged. The man killed him easily, and the treasure was his.

mikal

(04/09/2003; 10:03:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101078)

Gold and silver will outperform...

most any other investment vehicle.
George Cooper believes silver has a special relationship to gold. Posters like Ski would contend that there are many.
I agree, especially having seen the intransigence of analysts and media ignoring silver. Stemming from the grave threat posed to stock brokers and other investment pimps, Ag to them, holds risk of enduring stigmatism and disrepute. The downtrodden pale sister deserves better treatment but will one day surprise her detractors.

Zhisheng

(04/09/2003; 10:09:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101079)

Both up today.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Interesting that the dollar is marginally up on the day, and gold up as well. In the pressure cooker, the steam builds up: do I detect a stress line appearing on the clamped down lid?

Mr Gresham

(04/09/2003; 10:13:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101080)

"Baghdad Falls"

Boy, if there was ever a time to buy the news (after selling the rumor -- of war -- oh, you didn't?) it is now. (Or is it "sell the news, buy the rumor"?) All confused now...

Why do they make it so easy? And why can't I read it when it's happening? Disengaging from emotion? Gotta try it someday. Hmmmmm... emotions are EXPENSIVE!

Toaster

(04/09/2003; 10:40:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101081)

Last great buying opportunity in gold

Very interesting column by Raymond Nize on gold at http://www.globalstockalert.com.

It puts the current gold slide in perspective.

a nation of one

(04/09/2003; 10:53:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101082)

To Mr Gresham (4/9/03; 10:13:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101080)

It's "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news," like, last November, when nobody knows if the war is going to be real, or whether it's going to be beneficial, buy stocks because other people are going to buy them if the war really starts, and because, if it doesn't start, you probably won't lose anything. Then, in April, when the war is news, sell, because it won't be long before they realize they won't make a profit, and then they too will sell. That way you get in before it goes up, and out before it goes down.

a nation of one

(04/09/2003; 10:54:46 MDT - Msg ID: 101083)

To Mr Gresham (4/9/03; 10:13:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101080) again

Oh, and if you will read forums like this one, you will know as it happens.

Daniel Druff

(04/09/2003; 11:00:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101084)

North Korea

From what I understand, North Korea is not a nice place to visit and is lacking in the basic freedoms guaranteed by most countries in the world. They don't even have a Kentucky Fried Chicken.

I sincerely hope that the United States of America finishes The Korean War...or was it a "conflict"? Some fancy political talk now and then is a good idea but if we are to move forward economically, using gold as the world's store of value - or dare we call it "currency"? - the people of Korea must be set free.

The Bible only allows slavery for 7 years, as I understand it, so we have the authority to proceed.

Finally, free people in Iraq with gold in hand are in very good shape at the moment, economically speaking.

DD

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/09/2003; 11:10:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101085)

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21mabry

(04/09/2003; 11:10:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101086)

(No Subject)

Baghdad liberated, markets down,gold up, is it the war or is it the economy with the problems still there that investors are watching.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/09/2003; 11:11:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101087)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. How does USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals position itself among its competitors with regard to credibility, reputability and pricing?

MK. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals has always been considered one of the most reputable firms in the business and it's always been that way. We have placed literally thousands of ounces of gold with investors and our repeat business and referrals are both very strong. That doesn't happen unless you know what you are doing and your clients know that you know what you are doing. If I were to sum it up, I would say we combine the first rate services and research that you would expect from a very large firm with the favorable pricing you would expect from a smaller, client-conscious firm.

a nation of one

(04/09/2003; 11:30:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101088)

21mabry

It may be the average investor is smarter than people think that he is.

Cometose

(04/09/2003; 12:35:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101089)

HUI

HUI up 4.25 .....
Very happy war near over
now can resume activities without interruption or distraction....

There's something out there ..... ON THE WING...

DOW should be having a party ......what matter....
a little maalox .....perhaps will get you over your hump..Wednesday hump.....even though there be many bumps
coming .....it called very high elevation turbulence....

HAVE BIG PARTY , tomorrow...feel all better!!!

21mabry

(04/09/2003; 13:02:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101090)

(No Subject)

I have heard many austrian economist say there is little inflation in a monetary system based on gold.I hope I understood them correctly.OK here is what I would like them to answer.Spain during the 16th and 17th centuries had huge amounts of gold and silver coming into the country from the new world,inflation became rampant and spread out to the rest of europe,is this like todays world when the fed injects billions of paper into our economy. I dont know it seems like a similiar situation.I know this question is answerable by members of this forum. To me its to large a supply of money in this case precious metals causing inflation. 21

Magister Aurelius

(04/09/2003; 13:25:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101091)

Spanish inflation

21mabry, Spain had a couple of other problems due to the influx of gold and silver that were more of a cause to the inflation than the gold itself. One, the enormous influx of physical riches did cause some inflation as it increased the supply of the metal. However, the effects of this influx were to diminish the merchant classes. Nobles in Spain and the government did not back business ventures as in other European capitals, in fact merchants were generally despised for actually "working" for a living. Two, the gold was mined for the royal establishment, private ventures didn't receive capital from this.. except pirates. If Spain had warehoused the gold and didn't spend frivolously on near constant warfare for 50 odd years with England, the Netherlands and in Germany, much of the rampant inflation wouldn't have happened as they would have had to grow their economy in order to support increased government spending.

Daniel Druff

(04/09/2003; 13:39:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101092)

21mabry

"To me its to large a supply of money in this case precious metals causing inflation." 21mabry
************************************************************

Over time, gold is produced at a 2% yearly increase...I read that fact somewhere. And the world's population increases at a rate of 2% a year or so. Every now-and-then we get spikes and dips in both areas but over all, imo, gold as money is the foundation for a perfectly designed system .

DD

RobotGuy

(04/09/2003; 14:14:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101093)

Just nice to see - - - Amidst the cheerleaders

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA46F5782%2DD592%2D4120%2DAB57%2D8DB8AFEAAEFA%7D&siteid=mktw

"Longer term, the outlook for gold is favorable because the Federal Reserve is desperately pumping cash into the banking system in an effort to stave off recession and deflation. This policy has already weakened the dollar, and will continue to do so. As the dollar softens against other currencies, global investors who doubt the inflation-fighting resolve of the U.S. government will shift a portion of their assets into gold."

Cheers to my like minded fellows!
It's nice to see some reality mixed with the hype.

Your friendly neighborhood RobotGuy.

Buena Fe

(04/09/2003; 14:50:02 MDT - Msg ID: 101094)

the war now moves from the battlefield to the political arena

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/2933923.stm Spotlight shifts to Iraq's weapons.

As the regime in Baghdad crumbles, the spotlight is turning once again to the search for Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction - on whose existence Washington based its case for an invasion.........

........Mr Blair and Mr ElBaradei's stress on external verification of suspect weaponry found is being seen as tacit acknowledgement that some observers believe coalition forces could be tempted to fabricate such "evidence", if finding banned weapons proves elusive.........

________________________________________________________

russia, germany, france, annan meeting in st. petersberg this weekend ... one of the uk labour mp's calls blair a "war criminal" ... is empire-8 about to retaliate and undermine the $ and washington? ... gold should dance like it did 25+ years ago.

rare gold

(04/09/2003; 15:01:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101095)

Notable Quote

When your memories exceed your dreams your life is over.

I'm happy for the Iraq-i people today. Freedom is a great privilege and paid with a great price. Had it been up to the French, Germans, Russians and others the Iraq-i people would still be under the thumb of that fierce dictator.

Cheers,

Raregold

R Powell

(04/09/2003; 15:03:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101096)

Russell's indicators ///// poor dragon!

Just yesterday CoBra(too) was kind enough to point out Richard Russell's bullishness toward gold once the HUI closed higher than 124 and the POG for June closed higher than 326. The virtue of patience is a necessity for investment traders but only a little was needed this time.

Today's closes
June gold $326.20
HUI 125.36

So, as I understand this, we now have the sage's blessings to go long. For physical buyers who place any credence to these mysterious predictions, low prices may be subject to a time limitation. If POG is bottoming on good war news, according to my understanding of human nature, today's news may be the best of the war. It's probably downhill from here with time not on our side. The stock market may have confirmed this theory today. Thoughts?

A nation of one.... I was cheering for the dragon.
Rich

Magister Aurelius

(04/09/2003; 15:20:09 MDT - Msg ID: 101097)

Fascinating article

Anyone read J. R. Nyquist's article today on Financial Sense Online? Get you some gold soon, cause the guys backing the axis of Evil sure are. It's a fascinating article... makes you think twice about who you can trust that is for certain.

Aristotle

(04/09/2003; 15:28:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101098)

mabry, Druff -- Gold doesn't stop monetary inflation, but it CAN protect you from it

The magic (accounting and allocation effeciency) of our modern banking system allows for inflationary expansion of the circulating money supply REGARDLESS of the type of limited monetary reserve base. You can start with 100% Gold coinage, and in no time at all you'll find a greatly expanded money supply primarily in the form of digital bank entries for checking and savings accounts.

Can't you see how the genie gets out of the Gold bottle easily and permanently? So why must you complicate matters for yourself (and everyone else) with Gold Standard musings? What is so repellent in your own minds about the simple concept of Gold as property -- the kind of perfect, floating high-value "real estate" that everyone wants?

I really wanna know what's influencing your thinking, so thanks kindly in advance for patiently sharing your viewpoint.

Gold. Get you some pristine lots. --- Aristotle

Buena Fe

(04/09/2003; 15:32:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101099)

rare gold (04/09/03; 15:01:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 101095)

i am not wise enough to know if the iraqi people will be better off

i try not to assume anything that i can't observe/experience up close

i have observed/experienced gold, imo it is freedom, we agree?

Black Blade

(04/09/2003; 15:38:03 MDT - Msg ID: 101100)

Gold Trending Higher in After Hours

Gold is gaining a bit in after hours trade. Wall Street was stunned today as the DOW, Nasdaq, and S&P node dived on victory in Iraq. The pinheads and bubbleheads on the stock infomercial channel are quite bummed as stocks tanked, gold and petroleum gained. They just don't understand that now the war is over investors are looking at the "unimportant" stuff like, oh I don't know�..earnings maybe?! How about the weak dollar or grim economic outlook? I am amazed as these buffoons question the fall in equities today. Without the sideshow of Iraq and all the drivel about "war premiums" and "second half recoveries" they are now forced to look at the hard cold facts in the economic data.

Physical demand is underpinning the gold price and the demand continues to grow (especially in Asia). It is the peak of "Wedding Season" now and no Indian family would ever think of marriage with gifts of gold. Chinese demand is strong and the central banks of China and Russia are rumored to be accumulating greater quantities. Many expected the oil price to fall as victory in Iraq was certain. However, oil inventories (according to the API and EIA) fell today when they were expected to rise. It is also apparent that the oil fields and infrastructure in Iraq are in pitiful condition and will take years to repair. OPEC is also meeting to cut back production. The higher energy costs will continue to put pressure on the struggling global economy.

Iraqis were in the streets celebrating today and there was some looting of government offices and businesses owned by the ruling class. I guess after several decades of a dictatorship living off of the enslavement of the population some over exuberant reaction should be expected. It was not much different than say Los Angeles on occasion or a Brit hooligan celebration after a soccer match. Hey, maybe the Iraqis just wanted to make the coalition forces feel at home (sorry � bad joke).

Hopefully the liberated Iraqis can make the best of their new found freedom. Never having the chance to rule themselves in the past I wish them luck. Meanwhile Iraqi ambassador to the UN says "it's game over" in referring to the end of the war. Now there are questions to be resolved: Where's Saddam? Where's our POWs? How will Iraq be rebuilt and when will services restored?

Now that the war is effectively over Wall Street and investors can focus grim economic data, earning reports that start to come out this week, rising unemployment, rising debt (and current account deficit) and the weakening U.S. dollar.

"Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(04/09/2003; 15:57:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101101)

States Ask For 'Volunteer' Taxes

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/04/08/politics/main548369.shtml
Snippit:

(AP) State lawmakers across the nation have come up with an unusual alternative to raising taxes for their cash-strapped states: "Tax Me More" funds that rely on donations from taxpayers.

Black Blade: Yeah right, that's gonna work.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/09/2003; 16:16:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101102)

Attention USAGOLD-CPM, Inc. valued clientele and visitors!

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If you would like to receive this daily correspondence via electronic mail, please contact jill@usagold.com to provide your name and preferred e-mail address.

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Give it a try, with nothing to lose.
We will gladly let you opt out at any time you choose.

Send your (real) name and email to

ski

(04/09/2003; 16:23:12 MDT - Msg ID: 101103)

Silver .... 21Mabray

21 Mabray #101074 You said, "I always assumed it would bmuch easier for silver to double in value than for gold to ...."

I am very much in agreement with this simple, logical,concise and factual conclusion. Well done!!

In the dark of night, I often steer my investment boat by a series of simple yet indisputable facts such as the above. Additionally, the fact that silver can more easily double than gold is just one of many items on my "list of evidence" that shout .... "Silver will do better than gold in % terms!"

21Mabray .... you also added .... "I just THOUGHT silver could double...." Again, well done!! People seldom think for themselves. For heaven sake, don't belittle what you have accomplished by thinking by yourself. It's a wonderful thing and a path well worth taking.

21mabry

(04/09/2003; 16:34:45 MDT - Msg ID: 101104)

Aristotle

Really I am just trying to learn as I go. i think of gold and silver as a lasting store of wealth, when you want wealth to last from generation to generation precious metals are the answer. I just like thinking outloud and listening to people who have studied these concepts keep me on the right track. Ski thnx for compliment 21

Paper Avalanche

(04/09/2003; 17:05:16 MDT - Msg ID: 101105)

@ Ari

Quick question:

Is silver property?

Eagerly awaiting your response.

PA

a nation of one

(04/09/2003; 18:14:42 MDT - Msg ID: 101106)

To R Powell (04/09/03; 15:03:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 101096)

"A nation of one.... I was cheering for the dragon."

*** I can understand this, being a dragon myself.

Cytek

(04/09/2003; 20:16:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101107)

Israel eyes Iraqi oil

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2933557.stmBy Simon Wilson in Jerusalem

An Israeli minister says he wants to reopen a pipeline which has been closed for more than fifty years to bring Iraqi oil through Jordan to Israel's Mediterranean coast.
A spokesman for the infrastructure minister, Joseph Paritzky, said the move would cut fuel costs in Israel and help regenerate the port city of Haifa.

There has been no official comment yet from Jordan, but any suggestion that Israel might benefit from the fall of Saddam Hussein is likely to enrage many people in Arab countries.

The pipeline was built after Britain took control of Iraq, Jordan and what was then British mandate Palestine after the First World War.

The section from Iraq to Jordan is still functioning, but the route from Jordan to the port of Haifa, which is now in Israel, was cut in 1948 when the British pulled out.

Controversial

The Israeli infrastructure ministry says reopening the pipeline would give easy access to Iraqi oil, cut fuel costs in Israel and help regenerate Haifa which has suffered badly in Israel's economic recession.

At the moment this appears to be a personal initiative by the infrastructure minister who is from the secular Shinui Party, rather than any official policy of Ariel Sharon's coalition government.

In any case, Jordan may find it difficult to align itself publicly with a project which would cause outrage in much of the Arab world.

silvercollector

(04/09/2003; 21:00:23 MDT - Msg ID: 101108)

Toaster

http://www.globalstockalert.com/rjn1.htmMUST READ!!

Thanks Toaster.

silvercollector

(04/09/2003; 21:17:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101109)

slingshot, PA

I stand to be corrected but I recall MK and either Cobra or Cavan Man wagering a "gentleman's bet" of a US dollar on an element involving golfing.

If it is of any relevance I cannot see the harm in a mutally agreed "gentleman's bet" (donated to charity) to settle your debate.

However, the agreed upon wager might be pushing the limits. It would be a little stressful, for example, to watch Ski & Ari wager into a "gentleman's bet", in the form of a donation of course, in the amount of $1,000,000 Euro on which gold or silver outpaces the other in 2003.

I hope Ari has a fine collection of sterling!

;)

Aristotle

(04/09/2003; 21:35:21 MDT - Msg ID: 101110)

Paper Avalance, my response:

Silver's tangible, of course it's property... something like a dark lumpy condemned building on the wrong side of the tracks in a floodplain amid a superfund site in an avalanche runout zone at the base of an active volcano. Sure, you might be able to eke something outta it, but why be a slumlord when more attractive opportunities are available?

At the root of it I suppose some people are simply predisposed to be dreamers while others are inclined to be builders. I'll bet if we took a survey we'd find that the powerball lottery is regularly played by a higer percentage of silver owners than by Gold owners. Dreamers versus builders. Wellllll.... if that's their source of happiness in life, then I say, "what the heck, let 'em dream!!"

For the builders among us, the choice is different.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Buena Fe

(04/09/2003; 21:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 101111)

update from earlier

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/2933923.stmIraq's weapons 'must be found'

The US defence secretary has said that finding any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq is still a major concern.
Asked at a news conference whether the rationale behind the war required that such banned weapons be found, Donald Rumsfeld said he did not "quite get the thrust of the question", but agreed that "it obviously is important to find them". ...............

.........Blix's doubts

In an interview with Spanish daily El Pais, chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix hinted he believed Iraq's contended possession of weapons of mass destruction had served as a pretext for a US-led invasion.

"There is evidence this war was planned well in advance," he said.

"You ask yourself a lot of questions when you see the things they [the US] did to try and demonstrate that the Iraqis had nuclear weapons, like the fake contract with Niger," he said.

He was referring to the discovery by UN inspectors that documents the US alleged proved Iraq had tried to buy uranium from the African state had been forged............

-----------------------------------------------------------
was this whole thing a set-up? (washington took the hook) intermission over, the real war euro vs $ will now resume, in the open!

gold IS ABOUT TO soar! imo

Yellow Metal

(04/09/2003; 21:39:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101112)

Magister Aurelius msg#: 101097

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/analysis.htm

"Get you some gold soon, cause the guys backing the axis of Evil sure are"

I think you are absolutely correct in that.
Unconventional thinking (contrarian . . non conformist ?) finds it's adherents in many cicles of men and I'm sure that the "Axis of .... ' or whomever are probably thinking as unconventionally as anyone on this continent. They probably don't make their investment decisions based on CNN if that's a hint.
So yes, we may be in with some strange bedfellows.
Interesting to read Nyquist quoting Machiavelli . .

snip

Totalitarian functionaries tell lies because that is the way they operate, by habit and by principle. "Men are so simple," wrote Machiavelli in The Prince, "and so much the creatures of circumstance, that the deceiver will always find someone ready to be deceived."

end of snip

Of course he has a very particular point of view. If the people he discusses in his article are hoping for the same sort of result vis a vis gold as we are here at the forum then does that mean with our allied interest we may have a common threat ?

Buena Fe

(04/09/2003; 21:42:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101113)

Putin, Blair discuss war in Iraq over phone
10.04.2003 [02:51]

Russian President Vladimir Putin and British Prime Minister Tony Blair exchanged opinions on the war in Iraq in a telephone conversation on Wednesday, Putin's press service told Interfax.

During the phone call, which took place at Britain's initiative, Blair told Putin about the main results of the latest British-U.S. summit in Belfast.

The Russian president, for his part, informed the British prime minister about an April 12 workshop entitled "Peace, Security and International Law: a Look into the Future, which will be attended by prominent international law experts from around the world. The leaders of Russia, France and Germany are expected to be present at the opening ceremony.

The parties also discussed upcoming bilateral contacts, the press service said.
--------------------------------------------------------
russia has insisted that this war contravened international law ........ now a workshop, has a noose been erected? call me crazy, but i smell a wicked brew.

mikal

(04/09/2003; 22:01:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101114)

@Aristotle

Re: "dark, lumpy, condemned" Is that any way to speak of gold's "significant other", time-honored consort and inseparable partner?
Besides, it's not radioactive like widely believed.
With all due respect sir, try some, maybe it'll rub off on you.

melda laure

(04/09/2003; 22:08:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101115)

What's not in the new iraqi constitution?

Nebuchadnezzar, king of gold. But this guy haruvo clay feet
"The war now moves from the battlefield to the political arena"

Perhaps, for today at least; today (as Lieberman says) will be remembered as Iraqi Freedom day- if all goes well. For the present, Weapons of Mass Distraction have been distracted by Iraqi Liberation Wednesday. Who knows what the tommorrows will bring?

Among these things will be more blood more riots more looting and (it is to be hoped) more celebrations, humanitarian aid and eventually prosperity.

"Freedom is a great privilege and paid with a great price."

That price was too high for Chirac, Schoder and Putin; that price was NOT to high for W Bush and Blair. And while paid with other peoples money, and other peoples blood, you can neither fault nor credit these five men for their choices based on whose coin was to be spent. Regardless, the coin WAS spent - it remains to be seen what was purchased, for whom, and what sort of warranty it comes with.

It is hoped that we have purchased for the iraqi people a lasting rule of law. I should clarify this by pointing out that a month ago, they already HAD the rule of law- with the exception of their own lawless government that did whatever it wanted to. The average citizen had to toe the line very carefully. The elites in the government committed any and every "crime" they wanted to.

So in order to have a lasting rule of law they need a constitution.

What kind of constitution?

And here it should be pointed out that the Americans thought long and hard about this subject during the long years of their purported "oppression" by the "tyrannical" King George III; indeed many disputed that they were in fact oppressed at all. It was YEARS before that incident in Concord Mass. And they thought long and hard about it after that incident came to its conclusion. Victory came in a matter of months; crafting a lasting version of the constitution was a matter of YEARS.

I say this because in a matter of weeks the iraqis will have a new "constitution" that will be the product of days of deliberation, by God alone knows who, and little afterthought may well be taken in the years to come.

Two things are likely to be left out of the new Iraqi constitution:

Any mention about real money.

The ninth ammendment, (or its equivalent) which limits the powers of government to those in the constitution, and simultaneously leaves limitless the rights of the citizens (except as enumerated otherwise).

One thing sure to be put in:

authorization for a central bank.

It is perhaps too much to expect a gold/silver clause in a new constitution at this time- but it can be added later PROVIDED there is no central bank to begin with. The iraqis should learn from the mistakes of others: The FED currently has been a long term disaster which has stolen wealth from the american people for the benefit of the government. Lack of a central bank may (or may not) cause a greater demand for foreign currency to be drawn into the country and also a greater demand for real money to be drawn in as well. It will be very difficult to fend off the FED/IMF/ECB/BIS hydra.

Indeed I am not an expert in these matters, I can merely see that there has been no consideration given to the issue- though the top bankers are sure to have several plans already well formed. At this point any gold clause in a proto-constitution is likely to be subverted (or used to check-mate the budding Dinar/Dirham plan). Freedom is a dangerous gift, and a central bank is a power too great to give to a government: even the US FED is theoretically supposed to be independent from the US government- (some say it is the de facto senior partner).

There is no immediate need for a central bank in Iraq; as long as the printing presses are out of commission, eventually the existing supply of notes will stabilize in value (according to the theoretical ramblings of some). Without a central bank Iraq is in a better position to repudiate its existing debts anyway. The only reason given for a central bank is to have a "strong central government". And the reason for that is obvious: Iraq is not the colonies of 1776, the war has not left a collection of self-governing regions, each with its own independent legislature and local laws, police, courts, legislators, and so on. But does free coinage circulate with a collection of free banks and a hodegepodge of foreign and local notes? In the internet age of wire-able money is a local central bank necessary for industrial finance? "De-Nazification" of Iraq is not possible as it was in Germany of '45. (though I'm sure someone closer to the subject may well correct my ignorance in that area- the british seem at least to be giving it a shot)

The US Marines have done a great job and paid for it; if the tree of iraqi liberty shows the gloom of green #2 and red #5 instead of the light of silver and gold then that fault is to be laid at the feet of the bankers - whose statue I hope to live to see wearing a halter and chains, and to see it pulled down (even if it is only as far as the thumbs down position ;-)

The Dagor Laurea continues- Iraq is ultimately but a footnote.

Black Blade

(04/09/2003; 22:16:04 MDT - Msg ID: 101116)

Market Wrap Up - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Bubblicious

The headlines all read the same: Stocks up, Earnings down, The economy is getting weaker. Despite worsening economic and earnings news, stocks have rallied and held up rather well given what has happened to most sectors of the economy. Wall Street is telling themselves that stocks are cheap and investors aren't listening anymore. According to the latest Wall Street estimates, stocks are now selling at 15 times forward earnings. Given the fact that the S&P 500 is currently selling at around 30 times trailing earnings, we are talking about earnings nearly doubling this year to reach those forward numbers. It goes without saying that this earnings miracle (like the earnings miracles predicted the previous three years that never materialized) will take place in the second half of the year or maybe the last month or week of the year annualized. I don't know what these guys are smoking, but it must be one heck of a mind-altering substance. I see nothing, and I do mean absolutely nothing, coming out of companies that would indicate an explosion in earnings is just around the corner.

Black Blade: Amen to that! Personally I have looked high and low trying to find one scrap of positive data to justify the claims made by the pinheads on Wall Street. I just can't find anything � nada, zilch! Yet I still hear pinhead after pinhead on the stock infomercial channel making dubious claims on nonexistent data that there is some miracle going to happen in the "second half". It ain't gonna happen.

Snippit:

It Just Isn't Working

Aggressive monetary policy and an over abundance of credit have failed to keep the economic engine running. It is now rumored that the Fed may be considering emergency measures and unconventional policy fixes out of desperation. It is apparent with interest rates at half-century lows that monetary policy has been a dismal failure. The only thing that the Fed has been able to do is recreate new bubbles in mortgages, housing, and consumption, which are now in danger of deflating. It has become the Fed's own worst nightmare. Monetary policy isn't working.

Black Blade: Some time ago when the Fed started to cut rates (that was about 11 or 12 rate cuts ago) I stated that it was not working and that the investor would look at these rate cuts as a sign of weakness and desperation. Sure enough, eventually the equities market indices tumbled after each rate cut. In spite of all the plans and "fixes" at work here I can only think of a couple of things left to do once rates hit "zero". One is do what Fed Gov Bernanke says: "fire up the printing presses". The other is for the US government and Federal Reserve to openly enter the stock market and buy equities. That will be the final nail in the coffin in my opinion, but there is nothing left. It's going to get very "interesting" going forward.

Some good charts and tables worth looking at in the linked article.

melda laure

(04/09/2003; 22:21:49 MDT - Msg ID: 101117)

They need a constitution

I should clarify that. It is PURPORTED that they "need a constitution". Britain seems to do fine without one. Of course their system has been bubbling on the stove for about 1200 years (with not a few kitchen flare ups). That's a long recipie to whip up in a hurry.

"They need a constitution like the trojans needed a wooden horse" is what I should have said.

Aristotle

(04/09/2003; 23:10:37 MDT - Msg ID: 101118)

mikal

Gold and silver separated long ago, and the gulf between them will widen further -- in my carefully studied opinion.

True enough, when a singular item is inexpensive, like an ounce of silver, its price doesn't have to move (nominally) by very much in order for it to double. But that doesn't mean that people are any more inclined to overpay for it if they don't have to. Using the same rationale would lead us to invest in rusty scrap iron because it's cheaper by the ounce and therefore, as the argument goes, more likely to triple, quadruple, or whatever.

Dollar by dollar I put my focus on quality over quantity. One small garden can be much more vital to a person's well-being than acres and acres of cheap burning sandstone.

Black Blade -- good post at #101100. Your opening paragraph sure resonated with my own thinking.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Yellow Metal

(04/09/2003; 23:18:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101119)

Chinese going for Venezuelan gold

http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=5776

$13 million is being invested by a Chinese company in the Sosa Mendez nine in Venezuela.
The mine has reserves of 950.000 tonnes and production begins there in 20 months.
Crystallex is very active now and it looks like they have managed to put opposition from a Vancouver mining firm behind them.
They've got oil, they've got gold.
The Chinese are branching out.

mikal

(04/09/2003; 23:32:41 MDT - Msg ID: 101120)

@Aristotle

Re: "...but that doesn't mean that people aren't any more inclined to overpay for it if they don't have to." When paper price of Au and Ag seperated from value, the effect was to place gold at the forefront of world commerce at the expense of silver. The dual Au-Ag standard was no more, relinquishing it's role in denominating authentic weights and measures. After gold tried to go it alone, it lost much commercial, financial credibility and use, though not entirely as it is preeminent in international payments between most all large banks and nations.
It's portability advantage, density and modern history are subordinate issues.
Throughout the world, silver is still money, property and precious insurance.
The inconvenience of owning "acres and acres" of sandstone pales before it's utility IMHO. Luckily, "variety is the spice of life", even absent a "studied opinion".

slingshot

(04/09/2003; 23:38:20 MDT - Msg ID: 101121)

The Paper Trail

It"s Not Over Yet!Think it is all over, Think again. The demise of Saddam is only the tip of the iceberg. Rumsfeld has asked all the Iraqi people to expose caches of weapons,government employees and all information relating to the Saddam and his cohorts. This may well be just the stepping stone to future excursions. Some will call it an expansion of US Imperialism and others the Fight against Terrorism. These are Dangerous Times. The plight of the markets may be one of turmoil as the uncertainty of global security is stretched to its limits. During these times of stress the Dollar will remain high and strong to to see the economy is stable as the war clouds return. But, when uncertainty is deminished the Dollar will fall. By uncertainty I mean the threat of terrorism and the unsuccessful campaigns. Then we will see the introduction of the New Colored Money and the possible devaluation of the Dollar as the real markets take hold. IMO I think that Gold will Trade sideways and is in a great accumulation cycle. Under $400.00. Depending on world events that may change. From what I have read I did change My Window Of Opportunity to buy Gold. Connecting the Dots may be different than yours, but I have that gut feeling. Can not put my finger on it, but it is there all the same.

To the Forum: You all are doing a Wonderful Job and Hanging Tough!

Slingshot-----------------<>

mikal

(04/09/2003; 23:47:25 MDT - Msg ID: 101122)

@Aristotle

Another effect of the official seperation between Au and Ag, initiated when the U.S. bimetal standard itself was replaced with the gold standard in the early 1800's is: The POS/POG ratio became distorted and unbalanced. For thousands of years the ratio was 16 or 17 to one, which equals the ratio that these metals appear naturally in the earth. Tonight the ratio is over 72/1.

slingshot

(04/10/2003; 00:01:12 MDT - Msg ID: 101123)

Silvercollector Msg # 101109

Bet High and Sleep In the StreetsWhen I was younger I went to Las Vegas and after a good nights winnings I happen to see an older ladie standing by the crap table which the min. bet was $10,000. She was wearing a beautiful diamond neckless. Stunning to say the least. I approached her and asked if she would give me a few pointers on the table. Her reply was, You Don't Belong Here! First Rule, Know your limits.
Slingshot----------------<>

mikal

(04/10/2003; 00:03:09 MDT - Msg ID: 101124)

@Slingshot

Re: "but when uncertainty is diminished, the dollar will fall. Maybe but what if the uncertainty of holding gold is now over, at least as regarding any risk that Iraq had with the market. People can see the economy won't improve enough to justify a higher dollar. They may not buy the story line that says another terrorist threat or war requires that the economy be called "strong" or else be called unpatriotic and anti-american. The markets don't see it that way unless the meduia pulls a very large rabbit out of it's hat and the ESF and PPT go on steroids, IMHO. But that's what will scare off foreigners, leading to the return of "big float" and necessitating official $ devaluation for stability, along with other measures, like a state of emergency or closure of NY markets. Or the Fed could cause this with outright purchases and monetizing of bonds and/or further opening of the money supply hydrants.

Aristotle

(04/10/2003; 00:08:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101125)

melda laure, back to the drawing board

Hi guy. I was with you through all of your constitution talk but then had to step away quickly as the central bank and monetary comments all collapsed in a nasty heap. Looks like the foundation needs a bit more work.

Dagor Laurea? That's a cakewalk. I think the real war is the Dagor Thaurn--min, evidenced above.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Aristotle

(04/10/2003; 00:32:37 MDT - Msg ID: 101126)

mikal -- on the end of the precious metal monetary "standard"...

"...relinquishing it's role in denominating authentic weights and measures."

Huh? Wha..? A gram is still a gram, an ounce is still an ounce, and Gold is still Gold. If you're driving at use of unit Gold as a standard for measuring value of other items, read onward. My answer to that is folded into my response to your following comment:

"After gold tried to go it alone, it lost much commercial, financial credibility and use, though not entirely as it is preeminent in international payments between most all large banks and nations."

The only credibility it lost was a result of financial smoke and mirrors. Think about it. Pointedly, how can we *know* Gold's value (and subsequently use it to measure the value of other items) if paperGold is allowed to circulate on par with the real Metal?

Owing to the evolutionary development of the monetary system there's a massive legacy of jumbled perception about money and property (real wealth), and it makes for a long loooong hike getting back to right. I'm no Trail Guide so don't follow me, but I do know which direction to walk. With a spring in my step on the trail of giants!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

slingshot

(04/10/2003; 00:37:54 MDT - Msg ID: 101127)

Mikal

Msg#101124The Uncertainty of holding Gold Is Not Over. When Gold rose to $380.00 my co-worker told me that it was too expensive to buy in. Fundamentals be Damned. He just asked me tonight at work on the POG and made no mention he was about to get in even at gold being $325.00. Its all a mind set. He is still hanging on to the notion that the stock market will soon rise to great heights. The war will ultimatly lead to the Big Float and with the increase in interest rates will be the final deathblow to the markets. Even today,volume should have been high with the war news and the market turned down. Big Block Traders? PPT? We may be on the upper end of the learning curve and the general public has some ways to go to catch up.
Slingshot-----------------<>

Black Blade

(04/10/2003; 00:53:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101128)

International Aspects of U.S. Energy Security

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/WO0304/S00156.htm
Snippit:

Press Release: US State Department

Hard Facts About Energy

We approach international energy policy aware of a number of hard facts that must be factored into the formulation of the nexus of an effective energy security and foreign policy. These hard facts include:

* Imports supply roughly half of our oil needs, and an even greater share of the needs of some of our most important allies and economic partners.

* We are no longer self-sufficient in natural gas. We now import 15 percent of our natural gas, almost entirely from Canada, but in growing volumes from Trinidad and other LNG [liquefied natural gas] suppliers.

* Two-thirds of proven world oil reserves are in the Middle East. In contrast, the United States has 2 percent of proven world oil reserves.

* OPEC [Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries] nations provide roughly one third of the total oil exports, but also control two-thirds of world reserves.

* Oil supply shocks in any region of the world have an impact on our economy through the instantaneous operation of international oil markets, as we saw recently in Venezuela.

Taken together, these facts mean that an effective international energy security policy must, as outlined in the President's National Energy Policy:

1. Promote increased and diversified production of energy from a range of foreign suppliers in many regions.

2. Coordinate effective international measures to respond to physical oil supply disruptions, through investment in strategic oil stocks, and through cooperative mechanisms to draw on them in case of a severe physical oil supply disruption.

3. Encourage major oil producing countries to maintain responsible production policies to support a growing world economy and reduce oil market price volatility.

American energy security policy must complement and support America's economic and foreign policy goals. We must ensure that our economy has access to energy on terms and conditions that support economic growth and prosperity. And we must ensure that the United States can pursue its foreign policy and national security interests without being constrained by energy concerns.

Black Blade: Interesting but I think it underestimates the vulnerabilities for the US, overestimates the ability of foreign producers, and does not adequately cover limitations placed on domestic energy production. The article does cover a lot of ground (and it's a bit long). Otherwise it is an interesting presentation and reveals the thinking at the State Department about energy and the impacts of global energy supply on the global economy. A good review for those who ask why we are so concerned with Iraq.

mikal

(04/10/2003; 01:03:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101129)

@Aristotle

Honest weights and measures. Used to be that a silver dollar would fetch a certain amount of gold and a gold dollar a certain amount of silver. Studies done reveal the old bimetallic systems of the world were classic examples of sound policies ruined by official monetary debasement.

Sundeck

(04/10/2003; 01:04:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101130)

Slingshot #101123 Gambling in Vegas

Hey Slingshot...

Your post reminded me of a book I read a few years ago "Memoir of a gambler" by Jack Richardson ... good read, not much about gold, but lots about life...very funny...recommend.

:-)

Sundeck

Black Blade

(04/10/2003; 01:38:42 MDT - Msg ID: 101131)

Euro Markets Start Of In The Red

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Euro markets start off in negative territory. Gold is under a little pressure at the open after holding up well in Asia. The USD is back under 100 but rebounding slightly.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(04/10/2003; 02:16:25 MDT - Msg ID: 101132)

Private Economists Gloomier on Growth

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030410/economy_bluechip_2.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Gloom about the U.S. economy's prospects is increasing among private economists who have slashed forecasts for gross domestic product after a slew of data showing hefty job losses and sluggish factory output. The closely watched Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter said on Thursday its forecasting panel had sharply cut its growth projections in the first half of this year. Also, nearly one-third of the 50 business economists on the panel expected the Federal Reserve to trim interest rates from their four-decade low of 1.25 percent.

Although private economists had been expecting some weakness in growth, many have been surprised by the persistence of bleak data. "The first bits of economic data for March -- with the notable exception of auto sales -- have tended to dash prior hopes that extreme winter weather accounted for a preponderance of the weakness seen in much of the February data," Blue Chip said in a summary of its latest survey results. The U.S. economy lost 108,000 jobs in March, following a 357,000 reduction in February. March marked the fourth drop in payrolls in the past five months -- a trend that Blue Chip referred to as "an almost unheard of occurrence in non-recessionary periods."

Black Blade: There's that unsettling feeling among the economist community as facts begin to out weigh fiction. There just are not enough excuses to satisfy the growling bear. It reads like the fairy tale "Goldilocks". It was "too cold", it was "too hot", it will be just right in the "second half", it's the "CNN effect", etc. Oops � it's the awful economy. Of course they are still in denial about the fact we are still in a recession.

Aristotle

(04/10/2003; 03:28:41 MDT - Msg ID: 101133)

mikal -- classic examples

A lot of things "used to be."

Play those studies forward, dear fellow. Turns out those classic examples didn't stand up too well to the trials of life under fire. You have any reason to believe anything has changed and the law of the jungle has been repealed? If you do, lemme know.

Life on the ground, my good man, calls for the wits to adjust to the changing weather and terrain, along with a little bit of knowing where you are and where we're going. A man took off his bearskin coat with the passing of winter. He also shed his silver with the blossom of modern banking.

There's no arguing with the ground you stand on. Gold/silver has climbed to 72 to one, you say? Ahem, that alone speaks louder and more convincingly than I ever could.

Gold. Get you some springwear. --- Aristotle

Black Blade

(04/10/2003; 03:56:23 MDT - Msg ID: 101134)

State may order gold mining company to fill open pits

http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/news/local/5600057.htm
Snippit:

PANAMINT SPRINGS, Calif. - The 3.3 million-acre Death Valley National Park has been home to mines since the days of gold-panning and borax miners with their 20-mule teams. But at its Thursday meeting, the state's Mining and Geology Board is expected to require that all open-pit metal miners refill their excavations and guarantee that the expensive refilling will be paid for. If the board adopts the policy, California would become the first state nationwide to mandate such mining reforms.

Black Blade: One way to offset the cost of refilling would be at closure to turn the pits into landfills. With all the waste generated by Californian city dwellers and the constant need for landfill sites, this would be one solution. Charge them for disposal, fill it up with garbage, then cover it over, and then pipe off and sell the generated methane for the state's growing energy problem. Hey, it was seriously debated at one Nevada mine that I know of.

Operative

(04/10/2003; 04:18:09 MDT - Msg ID: 101135)

Marines Find Underground Nuke Lab?

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=31966Acccording to the story at above link the Marines have found an underground nuke lab. If true, I suspect the networks will be all over this story in a short to show a smoking gun. But also troubling, is the vanishing act of Sadam and many of his key government heads according to other news services tonight. Looks like Sadam and Team had a prearranged rally point in case the war went south on them. Appears our government has no idea where "everybody" went. Hmmmmm. ??? Something, tells me this is not over yet. geesh, I hope its old age jitters. For the sake of our troops, I hope so.

Topaz

(04/10/2003; 04:49:02 MDT - Msg ID: 101136)

Bonds and Gold.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Ctnxy%2Cfvxy%2Cgcj3.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=7&go.y=11The Paper with the word "GOLD" on it, (thanks TC) really needs to take a breather here till weeks end and establish a base @ $320...and because it's really only a derivative of the Dollar/Bond arena, I'd expect just that.
Euro/Gold is reflecting the more pronounced disinflationary trend becoming evident due to $/E disparity.
An equilibrium E/Gold price is 320 and it will be VERY interesting to watch events as the Euro strives to reattain this level.
Will $/Gold retreat to 345-354 or E/$ weaken ?

One things for sure, the Short T's are screaming to the 30 Yr...come on down! 4.65% Yield...third time un-lucky.

LeSin

(04/10/2003; 07:25:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101137)

Now For a Little Break From Iraq Conflict & BACK TO THE REAL WAR - EURo v US$

http://www.interfax-news.com/TodaysFSUNews/today.html

The euro exchange rate relative to the dollar will not change appreciably this year. Sergei Ignatiyev, the Central Bank chief, offered this opinion on Wednesday, April 2.

But, he noted, The longer and harder the events in Iraq, the bigger the foundation for the dollar rate to fall in comparison with other currencies.

Ignatiyev referred to Tuesday's dollar slippage in forex trading in Russia as a small correction. A situation has developed on the market where supply clearly exceeds demand, he said

Paper Avalanche

(04/10/2003; 08:17:34 MDT - Msg ID: 101138)

WW III on its way...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030410/pl_nm/iraq_usa_hawks_dc_3As I said previously, this is surreal.

PA

Zhisheng

(04/10/2003; 08:51:20 MDT - Msg ID: 101139)

Gold today in London and New York

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Like trying to hold a greasy basketball under water in a whirlpool.

(04/10/2003; 10:37:21 MDT - Msg ID: 101140)

@ Aristotle

What is your opinion on the following system?

* Gold and silver coins circulate and consumers pay their purchases (bread, butter etc.) with coins.
* Deposit banks cannot lend, cannot pay interest and receive some fee for the service they supply (namely safekeeping of gold and silver bullion).
* Investment banks can lend and can pay interest. However, their lending and borrowing maturities must match. They cannot finance say a 10 year project with deposits of 1 year maturity.
* Saving precedes investment and consumption.

What is the purpose of these efforts?

To limit the power of government�

Best regards

Kev

(04/10/2003; 11:46:17 MDT - Msg ID: 101141)

Belgian c.bank faces another fight over assets

BRUSSELS, April 10 (Reuters) - A shareholder rights group has asked a court to get Belgium's central bank to clarify the legal status of its foreign reserves in the latest salvo in a battle over possession of the bank's assets.

The group, Deminor, said on Thursday it had filed a complaint with the Brussels commercial court to force Banque Nationale de Belgique to provide more information about its assets to determine whether shareholders had a right to them.

"Deminor considers that this information is material since it has a direct impact on the assessment of the value of the (bank) and therefore of its share listed on the stock market," it said in a statement.

According to its figures, the bank's foreign reserves are estimated to be around 40 percent of the total, valued at more than 30 billion euros ($32.36 billion) at the end of last year.

Deminor said information received from the bank's March 31 annual shareholder meeting and subsequent annual report about the bank's assets was "incomplete and confusing".

Deminor manager Charles Demoulin told Reuters that the court filing was made on behalf of 175 individual and institutional investors, including Brussels investment bank Petercam.

Deminor said it did not know how many shares the investors represented, but one of two other related cases filed against the bank represented 250 shareholders together owning up to six percent of the free float.

A spokeswoman at the bank, one of few listed European central banks, declined to comment. The bank has a free float of 50 percent.

Its stock was off 0.45 percent at 3,350 euros in quiet afternoon trade in Brussels. It has risen steadily since late last year amid speculation that the government might buy out the shareholders.

A top lawyer representing shareholders recently called on the courts to dissolve the bank because a transfer of its gold and currency reserves to the state had depleted its equity. The bank has denied such a transfer took place.

In the other two cases Deminor is trying to get shareholders what it deems to be their fair share of the reserves by arguing that the bank transferred its rights to print money to the European Central Bank after the launch of the euro.

The bank has always denied it had transferred its printing rights, saying that it shares that right with the ECB.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/10/2003; 12:06:38 MDT - Msg ID: 101142)

Attention USAGOLD-CPM, Inc. valued clientele and visitors!

USAGOLD-CPM, Inc. has recently instituted a program to notify interested parties of breaking news, web site updates and special offers.

If you would like to receive this daily correspondence via electronic mail, please contact jill@usagold.com to provide your name and preferred e-mail address.

If you are a current client of USAGOLD-CPM, Inc., this opportunity is especially important as you qualify to receive precedent notification of any special offers made by our firm, namely exclusive early access to our monthly buyers' groups and first notification of unique product availability.

Again, to receive these notifications, send your name and your current email address to:
jill@usagold.com

Thank you,

USAGOLD-CPM, Inc.

PS. You can always opt out again at any time you choose.

Daniel Druff

(04/10/2003; 12:53:02 MDT - Msg ID: 101143)

time

It looks like today's bullion market got a little short on time but think about this...is gold finally ready to gap above 330? Don't bet against it, imho.

DD

Daniel Druff

(04/10/2003; 14:21:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101144)

ge (04/10/03; 10:37:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101140)
@ Aristotle
What is your opinion on the following system?
*****************************************************

ge, I have a sneaking suspicion that Aristotle is a Closet Fiat Lover...I could be wrong.

DD

Aristotle

(04/10/2003; 14:45:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101145)

Bear with me as I pour you a cup for a little tale. One lump or two?

I was polishing an old silver teapot, when lo-and-behold a Genie appeared.

Somewhat amazed for a moment, I quickly gathered my wits and asked if I got three wishes. The Genie said, "Nope. Three-wish genies are a story-tale myth, but out of gratitude I'll grant you one wish. So... what'll it be, Ari?"

Without hesitation I said, "I want harmony in the Middle-East. See this map? I want these countries to interact with each other and with the rest of the world on a peaceful, economic footing, not supercharged with old social or religious animosities."

The Genie looked at the map shaking his head. "Ari, be reasonable. The people of these countries have been involved in war for thousands of years. Besides that, I'm kinda out of shape after being couped up in a teapot for a couple centuries. I'm good but not THAT good! Frankly, I don't think it can be done. Make another wish and please be reasonable."

I thought for a minute and said, "Well, I've never been able to convey the realities of the monetary system to my fellow USGOLDers. Some of them just can't understand what money is, how it works, and how physical Gold is uniquely positioned to protect them from inevitable monetary failings. They don't see how it alone can vastly gain value as it comes "into its own" (sooner rather than later) thanks to the challenges and wisdom of the euro architects. That's what I wish for ... a little enlightenment -- for some of the silverbugs and Gold Stardard-ites to simply understand the interactive roles of money and banking as something distinct from property and wealth."

The Genie let out a long sigh, shook his head and said, "Cripes, lemme have another look at that map..."

One wish: Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

steady

(04/10/2003; 14:58:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101146)

TWO LUMPS PLEASE ARI.

OK ARISTOTLE. maybe im starting to see the difference between money and gold. but why does a gold standard not fit. why did u make a comment about a gold standard not being ok for gold. is it because it( the gold standard) ties gold to money and the two should be seperate

Aristotle

(04/10/2003; 15:08:27 MDT - Msg ID: 101147)

Very good, ge -- msg#: 101140

You've laid out a structure that takes care not to artificially inflate the amount of Gold in circulation or ownership. Gold passes from hand to hand as property. What you see is what you get.

Basically I like it, and don't think for a minute that I haven't already considered this angle before.

Now let's get down to business. I can tell you're a very smart dude because you carefully put forth the exact terms of usage that you knew would meet my favor because it wouldn't undermine Gold's unique value.

As a very smart guy, maybe you can take things one step further and lend me a hand in this unending effort. Admit to your fellows here why your system, as good as is sounds in theory, is actually revealed to be an unworkable Utopian pipe dream if put into practice. Thanks, champ.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Daniel Druff

(04/10/2003; 15:10:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101148)

steady

AB532
Any news?

DD

Black Blade

(04/10/2003; 15:11:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101149)

Sars hits Hong Kong growth

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2934867.stm
Snippit:

No-one goes out in Asia without a face mask these days With shops closed, airlines slashing flights, hotels and restaurants emptied, Hong Kong's targets for economic growth will have to be scrapped. The government's acknowledgement of just how bad the Sars virus is for economic as well as physical health came as legislators passed a budget packed with tax rises and cost cuts to trim a HK$70bn (�5.7bn; $9bn) budget deficit.

Black Blade: SARS is spreading and China now admits that they have a growing crisis on their hands after a military doctor accused the Party's health minister of covering up the problem (I see a possible short career for this poor doctor). Singapore has set up a "quarantine camp" for the growing number of exposed and suspected cases. Yesterday a US health official stated that he believes that SARS is "here to stay" in Asia. The virus is now thought to actively exist on surfaces longer than originally thought. Another problem is that those infected may not develop immunity and could suffer repeated cases if exposed. One thought is that the disease could be transmitted by cockroaches of all things and that may cause problems for exporters. Already many industries such as airlines are suffering because of SARS. "Interesting Times"

Daniel Druff

(04/10/2003; 15:16:27 MDT - Msg ID: 101150)

An Unworkable Revelation"Admit to your fellows here why your system, as good as is sounds in theory, is actually revealed to be an unworkable Utopian pipe dream if put into practice." Aristotle
***********************************************************

Pipe dream?...hmmmm

DD

21mabry

(04/10/2003; 15:21:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101151)

(No Subject)

Silver says to Gold. Can't we all just get along. That goes for Platinum and Palladium to and even Copper.

Black Blade

(04/10/2003; 15:31:02 MDT - Msg ID: 101152)

Victory may not defeat economic doubt

http://www.accessatlanta.com/ajc/epaper/editions/today/business_e3492f67d044912c10b0.html
Snippit:

The post-war recovery is getting off to a rocky start. While events in Baghdad on Wednesday seemed to signal the endgame of the U.S. military campaign in Iraq, a slew of skeptics doubt a quick end to war would spark the long-awaited economic rebound. Unlike the Gulf War in 1991, when the fighting ceases now, it will signal only more uncertainty --- about the costs of rebuilding Iraq, political as well as economic. There will be worry about a resurgence of anti-American forces in Iraq, as well as other possible conflicts in the region or with North Korea.

For months, the more optimistic economists have blamed the woes of impending war for dampening consumer spending and delaying corporate expenditures. And with each hint of a rapid U.S. victory, the stock market soared and the price of oil fell --- holding out twin promises: a renewed faith in corporate growth and a lighter load for companies and consumers alike. Business spending has still not reversed a three-year slide that sent the economy into recession in 2001. And while consumer spending carried the economy for more than a year, there has lately been ominous signs of retreat. Energy costs have added a painful burden for months, rising to decade-long highs just as winter heating needs peaked. Worries about war in the world's most oil-rich region sent the price of crude to nearly $40 a barrel and the price of gasoline over $2 a gallon in some parts of the United States. U.S. factories are running at only 75 percent of capacity, substantially below the point at which hiring typically starts. Many companies will not expand --- war or not, agreed economist Murray Weidenbaum of Washington University in St. Louis.

About 8.5 million are jobless and millions of others are working less than they want. While the unemployment rate is 5.8 percent --- low by recession standards --- many people have dropped from the work force and are no longer counted in the calculation. "But I don't think it's just the war," said Richard Kopelman, partner in charge of manufacturing at Habif, Arogeti and Wynne, an Atlanta-based accounting firm. "Even if we had a quick resolution of the war, I don't see a quick improvement in the economy."

Black Blade: And so it goes. The economy is in a serious downtrend and not likely to recover for years. There are simply too many strikes against any hope of economic recovery. All the statistical massage the BLS can muster can not change the fact that Americans are running scared and it is going to get worse. Unemployment is growing, debt is rising to record levels daily, and capex just isn't materializing. In a word � "grim".

Aristotle

(04/10/2003; 16:03:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101153)

steady, let's try to get our minds around this money thing

Among other purposes, money serves us by trying to measure value of everything else in the world. Prices are quoted in terms of monetary units.

Gold Standard pushers think that money needs to have a permanent tangible definition (like an ounce of Gold) in order to more perfectly serve its pricing (value-measurement) function.

So far, they have they intellectual high ground -- an unassailable position if we were to stop right there.

But we can't stop there, because money (True *money*, mind you) serves a fundamentally more important role than a standard for pricing. It serves as a unit of account in the writing of contracts to dictate terms of future performance and expectations between people. Like a loan, for example. That promisory aspect is what gives something "moneyness" not be be confused with "propertyness."

Looking back now at our first point, how can anyone get their mind around the all-important Standard Value for an ounce of property like Gold (for its pricing function) if abundant paper promises for property (i.e., Gold loans) are circulating at par with the real property?

Don't quite follow me? Ok, let's try this.

Here's where the problem lies. In and of itself, we don't know what the value of any given item is, Gold included. We need to compare its exchange value against other familiar things to get a sense of its value. This is especially true of property like Gold because we don't consume it. Something like a loaf of bread on the other hand is a bit easier for us to discover it's value even if we can't compare it to other things. Think about it for a while if you have to. I'll wait while you do.

OK, so now we know that we have to compare Gold to other things in order to develop our sense of what it's worth, and only after developing this sense can we hope to utilize it across the board as a standard of value for measuring prices.

Now again I ask you, how can we determine and forever preserve our sense of Gold's value if vast unit's of promisory Gold (Gold Standard money) are allowed to circulate on equal footing with the much scarcer metal which alone is supposed to be the standard of value?

Take this thought to heart: If Gold is to be the rock-solid standard of value, then it can't also be made available in promisory form -- the very aspect that morphs real property/wealth into unavoidably obscure moneyness. It's one, or the other. Not both. I choose the former.

Increase your wealth/property, not your illusions.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

21mabry

(04/10/2003; 16:34:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101154)

Aristotle

Aristotle, I have some of your namesakes works in my home library.I know he had some things to say about precious metals and money.I am going to read up on them and hopefully be able to understand them. 21

Daniel Druff

(04/10/2003; 16:45:12 MDT - Msg ID: 101155)

Aristotle

"...terms of future performance...""But we can't stop there, because money (True *money*, mind you) serves a fundamentally more important role than a standard for pricing. It serves as a unit of account in the writing of contracts to dictate terms of future performance and expectations between people. Like a loan, for example. That promisory aspect is what gives something "moneyness" not be be confused with 'propertyness.'" Aristotle
************************************************************

And we come right back to Fiat. And what really is Fiat? With what is it secured? Could it be a promise to commit your time in securing the demand of ANOTHER. It's backed by effort which takes time to demonstrate.

There is no sound economic reason, which I'm aware of, which says: Do not use gold as collateral. And in my opinion, ge has some great ideas...even though I don't like the idea of carrying a lot of weight all over town.

A system which prices goods and services in terms of gold-weight, along side a Fiat Credit System which you may design, could be dynamic and reasonably moral.

DD

Aristotle

(04/10/2003; 16:54:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101156)

Druffster

"Cripes, lemme have another look at that map..."

I can relate, 'cause doin' that other thing is hopeless.

Gold. Guess I'll just keep gettin' me some. --- Arisotle

R Powell

(04/10/2003; 16:57:24 MDT - Msg ID: 101157)

Aristotle // Money and metals

Would I be correct if I paraphrased your 101153 with the following...?

Since the amount (quantity) of money is never constant, its relative value rarely is. (It theorically may be constant for a period of time, depending upon the amount of and demand for the tangible goodies available to be bought and sold with whatever amount of money is available) Is this what you mean? The "value" of money is always in flux.

Also, I'd agree that money is a means of exchange and gold (all tangible objects) are property and, of course gold is a tangible form in which to store wealth and protect that wealth from the devaluation of whatever happens to pass for money but, wouldn't silver (in this scenario) serve the same purpose. Other than the weight and volume involved, what quality does gold possess that silver has not? I presuppose a limited, existing quantity of each with a future limited production of each no matter how dearly priced in currency terms.
Thanks
Rich

Paper Avalanche

(04/10/2003; 17:23:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101158)

@ Ari - while you seem to be on a roll today....

What are your thoughts on the rationale for the introduction of the silver dirahm in concert with the gold dinar? Just say the word and I will call the folks in the Islamic banking circles and let them know that they have it all wrong if you are able to convince me so.

Knock yourself out.

PA

BTW, I don't mean to be an a$$. I do like you. I find it entertaining to watch a man defend an indefenseable position.

Aristotle

(04/10/2003; 17:40:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101159)

msg#: 101157, Rich, that paraphrase effort works fine for me.

Further, the value of a monetary unit is always in flux not only because the supply of money is in flux, but also because the enforcement of laws and contracts that stand behind the moneyness of these units are themselves in flux.

Yes, theoretically silver (and nearly every other metal) could give Gold a run for its position of preeminent value, but it really does come down to efficiency. It only takes one to be king of the hill. Two or more would be redundant, and the eventual drive for efficiency naturally favors the one that's already established the upper hand. We see this process already playing itself out over the decades as silver has been shed in favor of Gold by governments and individuals alike.

There is no reason to think the ratios will stabilize at this humble difference because the power of Gold has not yet been fully revealed. The next phase will be against the dollar. Everyone loves a winner, and a virtuous circle will play out for a time as various assets are shed from usage in a reserve capacity in favor of rising Gold. Dollar holders will seek Gold, bond holders will seek Gold, derivative holders will seek Gold, yen holders will seek Gold, euro holders will seek Gold, and yes, even many longtime holdout diehard silver holders will finally yield to the obvious efficient winner as the dollar loses international reserve status to king Gold.

It only takes one physical item to fill the niche, and there'll be no inefficient riding of coattails by any related yet redundant item.

We (meaning the system) have been building to this point for a long, long time. The signs are all around, and have been the basis for much discussion in and around the Gold Trail. At this point in time wouldn't it be a shame to miss the big payoff due to blind sentimentalities for silver or for faith in the performance of leveraged counterparties?

Best advice on the net coming up in Three... Two... One...

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Aristotle

(04/10/2003; 17:46:33 MDT - Msg ID: 101160)

PA, help me out by putting your finger right on it

What PRECISELY is the "undefensible position" that you're referring to?

On the other point you raised, I'm not going to waste my time on your dinar/dirham relationship because it's a waste of your energy and mine.

G. G.y.s. --- Ari

Daniel Druff

(04/10/2003; 18:03:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101161)

Aristotle to PA

"What PRECISELY is the "undefensible position" that you're referring to?"
Here it is:
"As a very smart guy, maybe you can take things one step further and lend me a hand in this unending effort. Admit to your fellows here why your system, as good as is sounds in theory, is actually revealed to be an unworkable Utopian pipe dream if put into practice. Thanks, champ." Aristotle to ge

Paper Avalanche

(04/10/2003; 18:20:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101162)

@ Ari

Easy. (I like to keep things simple)

What do you envision the relationship to be between the silver dirham and the gold dinar upon its official launch this summer as perceived by those who you envision abandoning silver for gold in the end?

Take your time.

PA

Paper Avalanche

(04/10/2003; 18:30:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101163)

@ Ari - to answer your specific question...

You asked what is the indefenseable position? Quite simply it is the notion that gold will propel to stratospheric heights in value to Joe Sixpack (bearing in mind that all "value" must have a point of reference) without being accompanied by its little brother silver.

Your argument is compelling if taken through a narrow channel of thought. However, I would politely submit that there exists no period in Western history where the intrinsic parallel between gold and silver has been severed to the extent that you envision. Maybe we are entering a new era of Western civiliation where history has no bearing. Maybe klingons will invade earth. Who knows.

PA

Aristotle

(04/10/2003; 18:36:49 MDT - Msg ID: 101164)

PA and "little brothers"

DNA testing reveals Gold to be an only child.

Soooooo... prepare yourself for klingons, I guess.

--- Ari

silvercollector

(04/10/2003; 18:42:46 MDT - Msg ID: 101165)

ge, DD and silvercollectors

In some regard I come to Ari's defense (not that he needs it).

Have you silverlovers read the non-viability issues over the years of bi-metallic monetary systems. Have you recognized that while one metal may lead another briefly, a simultaneous appreciation of 2 metals has never lasted for long.

Check your history and place your bets, gold or silver. You better be correct.

silvercollector

(04/10/2003; 18:50:33 MDT - Msg ID: 101166)

Wow, wow and wow!

Just witnessed an all out brawl on CNN. The fact is was on CNN is irrelevant. Scott Ritter the former chief weapons inspector and Bob Tierney, his right hand man had a full-fledged toe-to-toe yelling match over Iraq's supposed possession of WMD.

Ritter says Iraq does not have them, blamed Tierney for being a CIA operative and suggests that the US is in deep do-do if WMD are not found.

Tierney says Iraq has them and the US will be vindicated once found.

Big time argument. Imagine the US/UN debate, must be beyond serious.

Gold related? You betta, the US is betting the farm, they MUST be correct!!!!!

Paper Avalanche

(04/10/2003; 18:51:41 MDT - Msg ID: 101167)

Come on Ari, humor me about the silver dirahm.......

Please?????????

Take care.

PA

steady

(04/10/2003; 18:57:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101168)

aristotle. i need another cup . just one lump this time!

whoa that was alot to digest (burp) excuse me !
ok now are u saying the promisary ness of gold in any gold backed fiat system is detrimental to the true price of gold because that promisory aspect of paper gold in fiat clothes will hold back the true value of gold because somehow that total amount of paper gold diminishes the value of all the real gold because it has been fractionalized? if this promisoryness makes gold money and not property then what value will that property take. if indeed there si no gold backed currency and then rather than money gold is property who/what / how will the pricing mechanism for that gold be achieved and what will it bein? what happens to all the gold in the central banks that is money does it become property? whose property?

u say........Looking back now at our first point, how can anyone get their mind around the all-important Standard Value for an ounce of property like Gold (for its pricing function) if abundant paper promises for property (i.e., Gold loans) are circulating at par with the real property?

Don't quite follow me? i say...... i follow u i think cause the answer to the question they cant unless they understand why gold will be more valuable( but valuavle in what terms ? in terms of fiat money or as property and then what gives this property value?

you say >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Now again I ask you, how can we determine and forever preserve our sense of Gold's value if vast unit's of promisory Gold (Gold Standard money) are allowed to circulate on equal footing with the much scarcer metal which alone is supposed to be the standard of value?

you can not determne the value because its the moneyness that gives gold its value, remove that and what does gold become> property? what if no on wants this property? and how is this property valued?
i am increasing my wealth/property one purchase at a time.

Daniel Druff

(04/10/2003; 19:00:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101169)

silvercollector

Silver should be priced in terms of gold-weight. One ounce of silver is worth so-many grams of gold. When one ounce of silver is on par with one ounce of gold many of us will be very well-to-do. [At that point, I'd be inclined to cash in my Ag for Au...until then, Ag is the perfect vehicle for loose change.]

DD

Daniel Druff

(04/10/2003; 19:03:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101170)

silvercollector

re scott ritter
I have it on very good authority that Buena Fe is actually mr. scott ritter;)

DD

R Powell

(04/10/2003; 19:06:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101171)

What price gold ?? // Aristotle

Aristotle: In post 101153 you said.....

"Looking back now at our first point, how can anyone get their mind around the all-important Standard Value for an ounce of property like Gold (for its pricing function) if abundant paper promises for property (i.e., Gold loans) are circulating at par with the real property?"

Isn't gold or any property priced by the powers of supply and demand with the constantly changing dollar price determined at the time of exchange. A Real Estate axiom for the price (fair market value) of a house is that amount for which it can be sold within 90 days when sufficiently advertised. Why isn't the POG simply the going exchange rate regardless of paper contracts? The contracts are bought and sold on the same basis (buying pressure versus selling pressure) with the object in question being the contract- NOT GOLD. It is a fact that the contract can be exchanged for physical gold and it is from this potential that the paper contract's monetary value is derived BUT it is the contracts that are bought and sold on the exchange with settlement in fiat. The physical exchange for the contract has to be possible so that the dollar value of the contract can be bartered.

It is also this potential exchange that links the contract's dollar value to the physical market price of gold. The immediate profits available from arbitrage keep and insure the dollar equality of physical POG and the contracts. If gold were to sell on the open market at prices much higher than the contract price, arbitrage traders would immediately buy contracts while simultaneously selling in the higher priced physical market to profit from the discrepency in price. This arbitrage force may not hold prices exactly even but, there will never be any great difference. As long as the exchanges are operative, there will not be any large disconnect between paper and physical prices on any sizeable scale. I'm sure our host would be the first to agree that large investors would buy and, if need be, stand for delivery if gold bullion were available off Comex at, say, $50-100/ounce cheaper than the going sale price of the same bullion.

So, even if paper contracts (deriving their value from the POG) do exist, on the Comex and elsewhere, how does their existence interfere with "the all-important Standard Value for an ounce of property like Gold (for its pricing function)"

I would submit that the POG is determined by the actual amount sought by buyers relative to the amount available to the market. Or we might say that the POG is some function of the amount of money available relative to the POG plus the incentive (wish) to exchange money for gold etc. and etc. and so on. However you define it, I do not follow your logic that the existence of paper gold contracts interfers with the POG. People who buy a contract have just that, a contract. That the contract's fiat exchange value is derived from the POG does not change the matter. It is the supply and demand for physical gold that sets the dollar price for physical gold. Contracts are almost always settled in fiat but the connection between the contracts price and that of gold exists and must remain so and remains very, very close to par due to arbritage.

What the contracts do provide, perhaps, is the overextension in an investment that derives its monetary value from the POG. This is basically true of all commodities. As for this notion (overinvestment relative to physical) and the actual amount of the physical commodity, I often wonder if most gambling casinos have enough cash to pay all winners if every slot machine player were to hit the jackpot at the same time? I would guess not with the commodity here being cash. That there isn't enough silver to cover all contracts is not alarming as the payoff for the contracts is (98% of the time) also cash settlement. Now, can the price be manipulated through this paper game? Probably, short term, imho, but that's another can of worms. Basically, the question is ...Does the invisible hand (force) of supply and demand set the market price or not? I believe it does.
Feel free to agree or throw rocks but please do so constructively. Thanks.
Rich

Daniel Druff

(04/10/2003; 19:25:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101172)

What's this?

Post | Reply | Reply/Quote | Email Reply | Delete | Edit
Previous | Next | Previous Topic | Next Topic | Entire Topic
Topic: Gold Silver Ratio:India & China (1 of 1), Read 83 times
Conf: Gold & Silver
From: Tom Prince
Date: Wednesday, April 09, 2003 03:58 PM

I would appreciate CAFE CHAT BOARD MEMBER'S
thoughts on the influence of China and India
on the future price of silver.As a silver
bull I have followed the metal since the mid
1970s. I have read the arguments for a much
higher price for silver given by Jerome F.
Smith, Franklin Sanders, Ted Butler, David
Morgan, and recently other more extreme
writers on the internet. As a silver
investor, the higher the eventual price of
the metal the better, but I am beginning to
have some doubts about some of the
predictions, especially those that express
extremely high prices for silver.
The scarcity of silver is only in the west.
There are billions of ounces of above ground
silver in China and India, both silver sinks
since the time of Rome. Since India is nearer
to being a free society than China, only that
country will be considered in this argument
for a limited cap on the price of silver.
India is estimated to have over 2 billion
above ground ounces of silver. Much of that
silver is tied up in cultural and religious
objects and will never reach the west no
matter what the price of the metal. However,
much of the silver (one-half, one-third, ??)
is in the form of jewelry and savings of
small farmers, and could be sold, processed
and exported to the West if the price is high
enough. This silver could equal hundreds of
millions of ounces, enough to satisfy the
needs of the west until new mines can be
developed. But, the problem is that the small
people of Asia do not trust paper money, and
are reluctant to exchange long term saving in
silver for unreliable paper money. For this
reason many writers have dismissed the
possibility of a flood of silver coming from
the East. However, the small people of India
may give up their silver not for paper money
but for gold, a metal just as desirable as a
store of value. This exchange would take
place only if there is a favorable ratio
between gold and silver, i.e. a lowering of
the ratio, or more gold for a given amount of
silver. In such an exchange, the West would
get their silver and the East would get gold.
As I see it, if hundreds of millions of
ounces of silver become available to the West
from India and China, that would put off into
the distant future the great shortage
predicted for silver, as well as the extreme
prices predicted for the white
****************************************************

Some Cafe fellow...his wife must have cut him off before he finished...or maybe he did a cut 'n paste job on some unsuspecting silver bear.

DD

Daniel Druff

(04/10/2003; 19:36:57 MDT - Msg ID: 101173)

simple math

silver
Prince says, India has 2 Billion ounces above ground...let's see, that's 6 Billion people in the world divided by 2 Billion extra ounces that no one ever figured on...hmmm, that's 3 ounces per person...WAIT, I did it backwards. It should be 2 Billion ounces divided by 6 Billion people equals 1/3 of an ounce per person. Oh yes, I can see it now...we have an incredible over supply of silver in the world...NOT!

DD

R Powell

(04/10/2003; 19:58:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101174)

Silver queen

Aristotle, thanks for the reply and all your work today. Again your words...

"Yes, theoretically silver (and nearly every other metal) could give Gold a run for its position of preeminent value, but it really does come down to efficiency. It only takes one to be king of the hill. Two or more would be redundant, and the eventual drive for efficiency naturally favors the one that's already established the upper hand. We see this process already playing itself out over the decades as silver has been shed in favor of Gold by governments and individuals alike."

I'll agree that storing vast amounts of monetary value in silver would, of course, present a storage problem for governments and those who seek safety for, what are to most of us, monetary amounts beyond our means. However, imho exactly those numerous, oft-talked about forces that will cause the POG to increase will also lift the POS. Added to this, silver has the added upside potential from contracting available stores in the supply and demand equation for an industrial metal, that is, silver has even more reasons to appreciate in price no matter what the POG does. Both are using existing stores yearly to meet demand but silver's available existing supply as a percentage of use or yearly deficit is extreme. At the end of year 2002, estimates of 320 million ounces remain (figure from David Morgan) of which Buffett supposedly holds 130 million and Comex about 107. How low will remaining available supply become before price rationing begins?

Also, if severe monetary forces greatly enhance the POG, I'm betting (literally) that silver's monetary connection will re-emerge. It never faded in many cultures (economies) outside of the USA. I don't hold that silver has to or will return to any set ratio with gold but I would not be surprised to see silver appreciate in dollar price many times more than gold. Lastly, one could argue that while governments may move vast amounts of money into gold form, there are vast amounts of less wealthy investors that may move money into silver form. So, a few entities moving billions OR millions moving hundreds or thousands. Six or half a dozen. Many are predicting that the mania will carry both, along with other select tangible "things". Besides, silver never wanted to be "king of the hill." Everyone knows silver is the Queen!

"Things" like gold and silver...Get you whatever you can afford!
Rich

R Powell

(04/10/2003; 20:07:40 MDT - Msg ID: 101175)

Silvercollector

It's not illegal to own two metals Your words......

"Check your history and place your bets, gold or silver. You better be correct."

Why is it that any discussion involving silver leads to an Either gold Or silver proposition?? Do stock investors suffer daily between buying one stock or any one? No, they simply buy both. Are you limited to the hamberger OR the french fries? The liver or the onions? The bread OR the butter? Heck no, buy BOTH.

Daniel Druff

(04/10/2003; 20:08:24 MDT - Msg ID: 101176)

Who will be buying gold?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/history.gif?s=FOREX_USDJPY&t=l&w=15&a=50&v=d12
It looks like the Dollar is worth around 120 Yen at the moment. As bad as our situation is, we have to anticipate 200 Yen to the Dollar, at a minimum. 200 Yen to the Dollar will certainly help Japan's exports...would a little move like this encourage China to de-link from the Dollar? I don't think so.

DD

Cytek

(04/10/2003; 20:11:50 MDT - Msg ID: 101177)

BBC CONFIRMS "PEAK OIL"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/business/programmes/moneyprogramme/archive/oil.shtmlShrinking production

In America, always the greediest consumer of oil, production has been falling for 30 years. Americans guzzle 20 million barrels of oil a day, but now they have to import over 60% of it.

That pattern is being repeated elsewhere. Geologist Dr Colin Campbell predicted a decline in the North Sea several years ago and claims by 2015 Britain may have to import over half its oil needs. "In 1999 Britain went over the top and is declining quite rapidly," he says.

"It's now 17% down in just three years, and this pattern is set to continue. That means that Britain will soon be a net importer, imports have to rise, the costs of the imports have to rise, and even the security of supply is becoming a little uncertain," Campbell adds.

But even if Iraq does boost its oil production ironically the effect could be short lived. Its vast reserves represent just four years of world consumption and by the time Iraqi oil is flowing freely, global oil production may already be in terminal decline.

Campbell thinks the decline will start by 2010. "It starts with a price shock due to control of the market by a few countries, and it is followed by the onset of physical shortage, which just gets worse and worse and worse," he says.

Cytek

(04/10/2003; 20:24:34 MDT - Msg ID: 101178)

American Air Warns of Bankruptcy Risks

Reuters
American Air Warns of Bankruptcy Risks
Thursday April 10, 8:57 pm ET
By Jon Herskovitz and Kathy Fieweger

FORT WORTH, Tex./CHICAGO (Reuters) - American Airlines Chief Executive Donald Carty warned on Thursday that the world's largest airline may still file for bankruptcy even if union workers agree to big concession packages next week.

"I must tell you honestly, that given the impact of the war in Iraq and a continued weak economy, the possibility of a bankruptcy filing remains, these tentative agreements notwithstanding," Carty, the head of American's parent AMR Corp. (NYSE:AMR - News), told employees at a town hall meeting in Fort Worth, Texas.

Cytek - From the Words that a great man once said " Cleary Un-sustainable".

R Powell

(04/10/2003; 20:26:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101179)

Correction

In 101174 I wrote....."I don't hold that silver has to or will return to any set ratio with gold but I would not be surprised to see silver appreciate in dollar price many times more than gold."

I occurs to me now that I have given the impression that I think the POS will exceed the POG. I do not. I do believe that the POS may (has the potential and probability to) increase more, percentage wise, than gold. I certainly hope silver has doubled at least twice by the time POG hits four digits.
Rich

Daniel Druff

(04/10/2003; 20:44:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101180)

R Powell

re: "percentage wise"
Thank you, I thought you might have flipped out.

DD

AuBug

(04/10/2003; 20:48:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101181)

Silver Bulls

get real!! Silver is a dog and ain't goin' nowhere, nohow, noway.

Even a slight rise in the PoS will get a million unemployed Mexicans out into the digs to whack the price down again. Hey, when you work for four bucks a day, you've only gotta find an ounce to break even![fifty cents left over for a tortilla and beans] Not to mention the fact that China has been dumping bigtime. Chinese ain't dumb. They know a useless metal when they see one. You guys waiting for the Hunt brothers to be reincarnated are gonna have a long wait!

Why buy trash metal when da kingadametals is just sitting there waiting to protect your ass[ets]?

Get real, get gold!

AuBug

(04/10/2003; 21:10:04 MDT - Msg ID: 101182)

More on the 'trash metal'

Silver ain't FRN's! Go ahead, take a silver dollar and spend it! Guy behind the cash register will whip it into his pocket so quickly, you won't even see it. Gresham's Law, remember? It will sit there for twenty years up in his closet and then will be given to his grand-niece on her birthday. She will lose it.

Silver is now trash metal. Byproduct of copper and other USEFUL stuff. If and when the economy comes good there will be even more silver around. Price will continue its decline. Gotta replace all the stuff they used up in the war and help Iraq with a new Marshall Plan. That should move commodities! If you expect the economy to collapse, ok, buy a few doorstops. Paint them black so burglers will think they are lead. Then wait ten years and sell them for 50% less [after inflation] than you paid for them.

Silver is trash metal.

Don't getcherself some!

Get real. Get gold.

shades

(04/10/2003; 21:18:01 MDT - Msg ID: 101183)

AuBug

Walter Franklin is that You?

AuBug

(04/10/2003; 21:20:16 MDT - Msg ID: 101184)

To those guys that got on a bus

in Amman, and went to Baghdad feeling all Jihaddy and all, you should have stayed home and bought gold. Hell, even the Iraqis are trying to get rid of you!!

I wonder how Saddam's half-brother felt when all those JDAMs went into his house? I'll bet he wished he owned gold!

Get real, get gold.

knotakare

(04/10/2003; 21:26:37 MDT - Msg ID: 101185)

@Arisotle's Property

Ari, you have stirred up the hobby monetarists, and so they will not you rest in peace with your well gotten property. I am enjoying this spectacle.

I'm sure there were those few who told everyone to sell their tech stocks in March 2000, and they were confronted with a zillion questions, most unanswerable.

I could read the book of Proverbs 100 times, but does that make me wise? We know that the US fiat is imperaled. Do I need to be all-knowing about all things monetary to act?

I have enjoyed this thread today; somedays the smoke doesn't bother my eyes. I like your thesis on propery, it makes sense and and makes things much easier for me.

AuBug

(04/10/2003; 21:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 101186)

shades

no im walter mitty

shades

(04/10/2003; 21:43:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101187)

AuBug

"Puppy biscuit," said Walter Mitty. He stopped walking and the buildings of Waterbury rose up out of the misty courtroom and surrounded him again. A woman who was passing laughed. "He said 'Puppy biscuit,'" she said to her companion. "That man said 'Puppy biscuit' to himself." Walter Mitty hurried on. He went into an A. & P., not the first one he came to but a smaller one farther up the street. "I want some biscuit for small, young dogs," he said to the clerk. "Any special brand, sir?" The greatest pistol shot in the world thought a moment. "It says 'Puppies Bark for It' on the box," said Walter Mitty.

puppy biscuits get you some

AuBug

(04/10/2003; 21:43:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101188)

Gonna have Turkey for dinner

with Kurdish sauce. Better get summa them paratroopers on the border, pronto!! How does US vs Turkey sound for the next war?

Were any of you around when the Hunt Bros. bankrupted the US Government and forced them to change the rules?

Were you there in palladium when TOCOM shut down the market to save their a$$es? I was. Made a fortune but shoulda made two!

Forget silver. It is totally useless unless you like taking piktures. Kodak and Fuji have got 3 billion year supplies in their whore... ah...warehouses.

There is only ONE metal that is going to be worth passing on to your totally ungrateful relatives.

Get real. Get gold.

Daniel Druff

(04/10/2003; 21:50:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101189)

AuBug

re: Silver"Price will continue its decline." AuBug
***********************************************************

Have you ever heard of a short sale? You really should short all the silver your portfolio can handle. SELL SELL SELL...but don't forget the ol' axiom, He who sells what isn't hisun, must buy it back or go to prison.

DD

21mabry

(04/10/2003; 21:51:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101190)

William Jennings Bryant

Somebody needs to post cross of gold speech to defend silver.I guess its true there are silver people and there are gold people.I like them both, guess I am one of the few.

AuBug

(04/10/2003; 21:52:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101191)

shades

Missus is dragooning me away from my internet security blanket. Fancy restaurant. I'm paying. Made 60k this week on gold shares, so won't hurt. Now flat and shareless.

Gonna have puppy biscuits and hope to talk to you and assembled multitudes again some time. I have been scarce around here for years.

Get real. Get puppy bis... ah...gold.

shades

(04/10/2003; 21:55:46 MDT - Msg ID: 101192)

Ari

Sorry Ari, as I signed off my last message with a hint of sarcasm I realised that it might be considered a slight to your ending to all your great posts. This was not my intention as I hold your thoughts and musings in the utmost esteem. This place would suffer immensely if you were unable to post. GGYS words to live by THANKS

Black Blade

(04/10/2003; 22:10:21 MDT - Msg ID: 101193)

Closing Pandora's Box: a case for hard money [gold]

http://news.goldseek.com/Chaos-onomics/1049994321.php
Snippit:

With the sound and the fury of the Iraq War hopefully fading from our TV screens, and War's most immediate effects on financial markets following, the case for hard money seems stronger now than ever. Yet, such has been the case ever since the fall of the USSR and still Gold as official monetary standard remains taboo. Perhaps the powers that be are finding that closing Pandora's Box is much more difficult than opening it. Fortunately, history suggests that while painful, a return to hard money is the best means to restore stability to a financial system and consequently durability to a political system.

Black Blade: A nice little history lesson. I recall the Russian liberalization of the gold market and the minting of new gold coin is in the works. To put that in perspective, the recent liberalization of the Chinese market with the creation of the Shanghai Gold Exchange and allowing individual ownership of physical gold appears to be a situation where these countries are subtly telling their people to consider gold (as opposed to US dollars) for personal savings. Both countries central banks have been accumulating gold in deference to dollars as well. In the case of the Chinese central bank they are overweight in dollars. However, the Chinese central bank has been buying gold direct from mines outside of the country (including from Harmony Gold in SA). It is rumored that they are huge buyers of the Swiss gold sales program (and perhaps were buyers from time to time during the BOE "fire sale gold giveaway" program courtesy of Gordon Brown). The details have not been released yet but the Chinese central bank apparently has not let up on their accumulation. The Russians on the other hand are quite open about buying gold and the central bank buying has been a program of steady accumulation. Other central banks in the Far East have been buyers and rumored buyers. The Philippine central bank is a known buyer and recently is has been rumored that the Singapore Central Bank has been in the market as well. There appears to be a general dislocation of gold wealth shifting from west to east. A World Gold Council representative from the region (sorry I do not recall his name) has been actively consulting Asian central banks and the word is that some of these banks have the desire to offset the risk of being so overweight in US dollars. These bankers are probably licking their chops at the prospect of Ernst Welteke of the ECB carrying out his hope of selling ECB gold - another load ready to shift eastward? "Interesting Times"

Black Blade

(04/10/2003; 22:52:18 MDT - Msg ID: 101194)

Gold seen eyeing $350 on economic outlook -GFMS

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/04/10/rtr935476.html
Snippit:

LONDON, April 10 (Reuters) - Gold prices may return above $350 an ounce in the second half of this year based on a weak outlook for stock markets and the dollar, consultants Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) said on Thursday. GFMS, releasing its Gold Survey 2003, said gold had that potential given its status as a haven for investors.

GFMS saw further stock market weakness, especially in the United States, as a strong possibility. That, together with a still weak dollar and low interest rates, was seen as a framework within which investors could return to gold to drive the price back over $350.

Black Blade: The stock market is in a secular bear and will trend down for at least a few more years. The US dollar is still grossly overvalued and should continue to weaken in spite of desperate attempts by the Japanese to scuttle the yen and increasingly nervous EU bankers.

GOLD SUPPLY FALLS, JEWELLERY DEMAND DOWN

GFMS's survey estimated that world gold mine production in 2002 fell by a modest 36 tonnes year-on-year to 2,587 tonnes, the first decline since 1994. "The drop was mainly due to heavy falls in the United States and Indonesia, which countered gains elsewhere, for example, in Africa, South America -- chiefly Peru --, China and Russia," GFMS said. For miners, their total cash costs in 2002 rose by $4 an ounce to $180 an ounce, the first rise in five years and mainly due to lower production, higher power costs and currency appreciations.

Black Blade: This trend will accelerate. After several years of virtually little or no exploration to replace reserves, it will be years before new production can make up for the shortfall (a minimum of 7 years and more likely longer, and only after exploration activity picks up). Today AngloGold announced a drop in gold production.

Official bullion sales by central banks rose five percent to 556 tonnes with heavy selling seen during the fourth quarter when prices reached highs. Lending, by contrast, fell by 266 tonnes largely due to low lease rates.

Black Blade: The lease is essentially the same as a sale. Just that it is subsidized by the bank because they will likely never see that gold again except in rare cases as hedged producers deliver to cover positions. So 266 tons less to market vs. a little less than 28 tons more sold by central banks (most likely bought by another central bank in the usual shell game of shifting gold reserves � who knows, maybe to China which bought over 100 tons in two months time). Central bank sales are meaningless as it rarely if ever makes it to the open market. Remember that central banks had about 32,000 tons in reserve about 20 years ago and still have 32,000 tons in reserve today. What has been lent out is gone, likely never to see the bank vault again. Someone is on the hook and as the POG rises the lenders get ever more nervous whether the loan is paid back in gold or currency.

On the demand side, GFMS reported that total fabrication declined almost 10 percent year-on-year to 3,175 tonnes in 2002, mainly due to an 11 percent slump in jewellery offtake. Jewellery fabrication in 2002 fell to 2,689 tonnes, its lowest since 1994, because of slowing global economic growth, political and economic uncertainties such as the Iraqi crisis and changing consumer expenditure patterns. "The decline was yet steeper at 17 percent on the basis of fabrication excluding scrap," GFMS said.

Black Blade: Gold production is declining and that will accelerate quite rapidly over the next five years. Investment demand is rising rapidly in central bank buying and investor purchases. Jewelry demand remains strong where high-grade jewelry is an investment (Asia, Middle East, and parts of Africa). Where jewelry is a little gold mixed with a lot of pot metal no one really cares as it is just adulterated junk at that point. The Jewelry industry in the west only has itself to blame for selling crap at stratospheric prices.

Net outstanding producer hedge positions accelerated sharply last year to 423 tonnes from 151 tonnes in 2001 as miners' price expectations rose, shareholders pressured company boards to reduce their hedge books and as the contango stayed weak.

Black Blade: Share prices of the mega-hedgers have suffered greatly and the shareholders are pissed when they see the like of Goldcorp, Glamis, Harmony, Gold Fields, etc. blow away the likes of Barrick, Placer, etc. The heat is on as shareholders vote with their wallets and as a result the hedgers have seen the light � sort of, forward selling is at a near standstill and current positions are being unwound. Mega-hedger AngloGold has been aggressively unwinding their hedgebook and the rise in the share price has been well worth the decision. Barrick and Placer have recently been unwinding positions though less aggressively. As gold is in a primary long-term bull market and interest rates hit rock bottom, the "Gold Carry Trade" is dead and buried with a stake driven through its heart. Also, with the "official" inflation rate at about 3% (real inflation rate somewhat higher) and the short-term interest rate at about 1.25%, the "real rate" is negative. In other words one is "paid" to borrow and buy hard assets.

slingshot

(04/10/2003; 23:47:34 MDT - Msg ID: 101195)

Bashing the Silverbug

Trash metal for some,yet I have found that buying of silver (at least in my side of town) is on the rise. The premiums also have increased. Sucker born every minute and every two minutes taken? The silver eagle has paved the way to the recognition of silver bullion and even to the buying of 10 oz and 100 oz bars. Oh, those wonderful Peace and Morgan dollars set aside for 20 years. Has not gold done the same? Both being at bargain prices. I have noticed that some here at the forum purchase large amounts which I can say for myself I can not purchase. When gold climbs in price the demand for silver will increase because of the fear factor and gold being unobtainable for Joe Sixpack.

Maybe a better debate would be who is apt to buy silver and who would buy gold. Would this not cut across the fundametals of supply and demand?

Slingshot------------------<>

mikal

(04/10/2003; 23:51:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101196)

U.S. debt carries war stigma

http://www.etherzone.comHOPE
THE CRUEL EMOTION
By: Ed Henry
We all hope that weapons of mass destruction, even nuclear arsenals, will be found in Iraq without the trademarks of American manufacturers and that Hans Blix and his crew will be both surprised and agree that these weapons and programs originated in Iraq.
We all hope that there will be irrefutable and incontrovertible proof that these bio-chemical and nuclear weapons were not planted there by American or coalition forces.
We all hope that the elusive mobile laboratories for the development of chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction will all be taken off Iraqi super highways and byways and placed in a huge parking lot for the entire world to examine.
We all hope that the Iraqi people will finally come to their senses and realize that twelve years of embargo, bombing, and occasionally holding back humanitarian aid from the UN food for oil program was really for their own good. Our own strongest coalition ally, Tony Blair, says that 400,000 Iraqi children have died of malnutrition in the past five years while others put the estimate at 500,000 in the past twelve years.
We all hope that the stories appearing in foreign news about the U.S. use of cluster bombs on Iraqi cities, in violation of the Geneva Convention, and the resultant death and injury of thousands of Iraqi men, women, and children are false.
We all hope that Donald Rumsfeld has been telling us the truth when he claims that American "smart bombs" are directed with great precision at Iraq's military headquarters and Saddam's strongholds with only an occasional mishap like the one dropped on a Kuwait shopping center or a couple of Baghdad neighborhoods where Saddam might have been or the hotel where foreign correspondents were killed. Every war has collateral damage.
We all hope that the eighty to ninety-seven percent of the people in countries throughout the world who are against this war, even within our coalition allies England, Spain, and Australia, will change their minds once victory is assured and again think of us as "the good guys."
We all hope that the world's greatest superpower is not going to use this small nation as a base of military operation from which to wage war against every other nation in the Islamic world under the same pretext of "first strike" against anyone that might harm us.
But most of all, we hope that the other nations of the world will chip in to help us rebuild Iraq and provide humanitarian aid because, quite frankly, the American people are just about tapped out in taxes, subverted federal funds, and a horrendous national debt that we're laying at the feet of our children and grandchildren. (Download the free pamphlet "To The Moon, Alice")
"Published originally at EtherZone.com : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact."

mikal

(04/11/2003; 00:10:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101197)

Sars highlights need for domestic production

http://www.etherzone.com/2003/jack041103.shtmlBETTING THE NATION ON GLOBALIZATION
SARS SAYS WE LOSE
By: Glenn R. Jackson -Excerpt:
"...Corporate America's mantra of exporting jobs and importing workers begins to show some serious problems with the assumptions that were made.
First assumption, that cheap labor is an untapped reliable resource in third world nations just waiting for Corporate America to exploit. A nation's cheap labor is cheap for a very good reason. All of the societal constructs, all the heavy lifting that has been done by the United States and other western nations to build a free and healthy society, are absent in the cheap labor nations. Hence third world nations are susceptible to a multitude of risk that Western nation's are not.
Second assumption, all of the risk associated with third world nations can be ameliorated with healthy doses of American capital investment. While infrastructure may be absent and can be bought, how do you buy protection from wars and pestilence? (Well through liberal uses of American tax dollars and the American military, but that is another story)
Third assumption, that national borders no longer matter. As this nation receives a flood of illegal and legal immigrants (projections call for 170 million more by 2050), and as this nation's elected officials and their bureaucratic worker bees ignore their collective responsibilities, the problems of the world will spread unchecked across America.
Final assumption, Corporate America is infallible. Half of Corporate America is in Washington DC asking for economic pump priming that comes from deficit spending, and the other half is begging for taxpayer funded bailouts. Of course even with their hands held out, CEO's make millions and seek millions more in bonuses. In the meantime a growing number of American taxpayers are finding themselves unemployed or underemployed, and tax revenues are shrinking..."

Black Blade

(04/11/2003; 00:16:57 MDT - Msg ID: 101198)

Asian Markets Sink

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian market go negative. The Nikkei takes a hard hit as the local economy is in sharp decline, the insolvent banking sector poised for nationalization, and the government declaring the yen currency worthless and buying dollars in its place. It does not look good for Japan. Hong Kong's economy is under pressure as SARS fears are keeping consumers away from public places.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(04/11/2003; 00:34:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101199)

Tokyo's Nikkei Ends at 20-Year Low

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030411/markets_japan_stocks_6.html
Snippit:

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese stocks thudded to a 20-year closing low on Friday, with Toyota Motor Corp and other blue chips slammed on concerns over pension fund selling and sluggish demand in the global economy.

Black Blade: And so it goes. One more log on the fire.

Usul

(04/11/2003; 00:51:57 MDT - Msg ID: 101200)

Why worry?

"The quarter was a watershed for financial markets as equities and bonds increasingly focused on the chances for a second half recovery..."
- Standard Life Investments, Investment Review and Outlook, 2nd Quarter 2001

Don't worry, (goes the spin), the Fed will save us with the rate cut that finally works, the market has already hit THE bottom, all the rumoured cash waiting on the sidelines will come in, and the second half will finally be THE ONE.

Mr Gresham

(04/11/2003; 04:15:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101201)

I wonder who's Kissinger now (Sorry, I know I've used that one before ;)

http://www.theglobalist.com/DBWeb/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=3066The question I've been asking everyone all day is, "Do you really WANT to be part of an Empire?" and this excellent article put this capture of US policy in an even bigger timeframe than I'd been carrying. It has NOTHING to do with American patriotism, but with ideologues who've imported UN-American traditions and highjacked our military machine into its service.

Neo-British Imperialists

"Max Boot, a Russian �migr� and former Wall Street Journal Editor who has emerged as a leading neo-imperialist ideologue, entitled his book "The Savage Wars of Peace." It is a polemic in favor of American neo-colonialism, modeled after Rupert Kipling's poem praising white racist imperialism, "The White Man's Burden."

"...The hero of the contemporary wave of neo-British U.S. imperialists is Winston Churchill. Mind you, not the old Churchill who resisted Hitler. But rather, the young Churchill who wrote ecstatically about people machine-gunning Africans in service of the British empire.

"Exhibiting an enthusiasm for British imperialism that would have disgusted American critics of British imperialism like Henry Clay, Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt, Max Boot has written:

"Afghanistan and other troubled lands today cry out for the sort of enlightened foreign administration once provided by self-confident Englishmen in jodhpurs and pith helmets."

Mr Gresham

(04/11/2003; 04:31:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101202)

Imperial Temptations

http://www.nationalinterest.org/ME2/dirmod.asp?sid=92CC3CD2669245CFBCA1759C597E9A1E&nm=Articles+and+Archives&type=pub&mod=Publications%3A%3AArticles∣=8F3A7027421841978F18BE895F87F791&tier=3&aid=D842EF08F0624C95B69133156F2EA7B2"The National Interest" magazine with "EMPIRE" in big letters on cover. Saw this on a newsstand today at B&N, no time to read. Looks like some of the conservatives are all over this. Do they have any clout? I think they're fighting for their own political survival now, after being edged out by the neos.

Don't ever turn up your nose at going over stuff like this again, and again. Educating yourself politically is a lifetime's work.

I think it was Mundell (or was it FOA) who gave us the history of Rome as currency debasement throughout the Imperial period. They go hand in hand, along with massive internal corruption.

"Gentlemen, we give you a Republic -- if you can keep it!" -- Benjamin Franklin

Gonlyold

(04/11/2003; 08:00:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101203)

Ameliorated Corn Flakes

Thank you Mikal for increasing my vocabulary. Ameliorate, def: To make or grow better; to improve. I'm usualy amazed by the verbage on this site.

Makes me wonder. Why don't I see this as advertising on the box of corn flakes as in "New, ameliorated corn flakes? Or "New ameliorated GMO corn flakes. Just a thought.

CoBra(too)

(04/11/2003; 08:24:24 MDT - Msg ID: 101204)

PPI

Producer Price Index soared in March at 1.5% vs only 0.7% previous month - and the markets turning accordingly. If I got that right thats 18% on an annual basis.

Gold turned up real neat in the aftermath of this cold shower and the sweet tuning of consumer confidence before. Can u imagine a tapped out consumer, indebted to his eyeballs becoming confident? Scary thought!

BB's correct -get out of debt and load up on realyity - not the least on gold in your preferred form.

Cheers - cb2

Trurl

(04/11/2003; 10:20:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101205)

Has anyone else seen this change to their credit card terms?

My latest statement from a large credit card issuer is interesting in its implications. The added terms are,

"We reserve the right to electronically collect your eligible payments checks, at first presentment and any representment, from the bank account on which the check was drawn. Our receipt of your payment check is your authorization for us to collect the amount of the check electronically, or if needed by a draft drawn against the bank account. Checks will be collected electronically by sending the check amount along with the check, routing and account numbers to your bank. Your bank account may be debited as early as the same day we receive your payment. The original check will be destroyed and an image will be maintained in our records."

Comments:

This is the latest in an amazing series of changes made to checking accounts over the last few years. Recall that now banks do not need to maintain any reserves against account balances earning interest. None. Zero. Can you say infinite leverage? Recall also that some years ago even non interest bearing accounts were modified so that the bank could sweep the unused balance, each day, into an interest earning, i.e. non reserve needing, account.

It looks like this latest change is designed to reduce the float by a day or so, since checks in most large cities clear overnight anyways.

What's most disturbing is the implication that anyone with your account number can help themselves to your account balance by saying in effect, "authorizing signature on file".

Now me, I keep a non interest earning checking account, so that they cannot force a seven day waiting period on my getting my money.

Now me, I keep a minimum balance in my checking account. Changes like this just reinforce *why*.

Sorry Black Blade, I agree with what you say about getting out of debt. But it's hard to pass up 1.9% fixed interest loans which I use to buy the heavy stuff.

P.S. If you really want to annoy your bank, use zeroxed blank checks. These don't have the magnetic ink. Just tell them you ran out �not investment advice

(04/11/2003; 10:46:50 MDT - Msg ID: 101206)

@ Aristotle

Dear Sir;

I agree that "physical Gold is uniquely positioned to protect me from inevitable monetary failings". Many thinkers have warned us about the coming monetary failure. Recently, Marc Faber has written that, "In the next major conflict in the world, the derivatives market is most likely to cease to exist, since financial institutions throughout the world hold derivative positions. Therefore, if one major player somewhere in the world doesn't settle or fails altogether, a vicious chain reaction could follow, with the result that the markets will be closed." (http://www.safehaven.com/Editorials/faber/041003.htm )

Assuming that we can survive through the bad times, the question becomes, "what kind of monetary structure should be constructed after this earthquake?". Obviously, Euro group has been thinking hard on this subject.

Advocates of Gold Standard propose to return to the precious metals standard as it had evolved before the First World War.

Your proposition (if I understand it correctly), is to substitute US Dollar with European Dollar, and continue with fiat money.

Gold as a contract unit of account, has been used successfully until 1914 (First War). Therefore it is not unworkable, however, it requires an international balance of power as a prerequisite. If US or EU manages to construct a world empire, the imperial fiat would dominate the world. No doubt about it. Till then, it is nice to dream about a gold standard�

Best Regards,

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/11/2003; 11:20:24 MDT - Msg ID: 101207)

Attention USAGOLD-CPM, Inc. valued clientele and visitors!

USAGOLD-CPM, Inc. has recently instituted a program to notify interested parties of breaking news, web site updates and special offers.

If you would like to receive this daily correspondence via electronic mail, please contact jill@usagold.com to provide your name and preferred e-mail address.

If you are a current client of USAGOLD-CPM, Inc., this opportunity is especially important as you qualify to receive precedent notification of any special offers made by our firm, namely exclusive early access to our monthly buyers' groups and first notification of unique product availability.

Again, to receive these notifications, send your name and your current email address to:
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Thank you,

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PS. You can always opt out again at any time you choose.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/11/2003; 11:29:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101208)

...because you never know what tomorrow will bring...

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

Zhisheng

(04/11/2003; 11:30:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101209)

Up into the Close!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Things are looking up (except for the dollar).

glennh10

(04/11/2003; 11:41:24 MDT - Msg ID: 101210)

Gold vs. Silver

Regarding all the recent debating between gold and silver, IMHO, it might just as well be about Exxon gas vs. Chevron. From the standpoint of fiat, there's no difference. Both gold and silver are precious metals, and they both enjoy historical as well as current significance as money. That's right. Money. Gold and silver are money - today. They were money in the past, and they will remain money in the future. They are also property, of course. There's not an adult person walking down the street today that fails to recognize the significance of gold and silver in the hand, that they are money, in a very fundamental sense. It's a historical fact; a fact that is barely shy of being innate to the human of the modern "civilized" era (post barter). It's a fact that doesn't have to be proven. It doesn't require definition or demonstration, or a rule of law. Truth stands on its own. On the contrary, like all lies, the lie of their irrelevance to money has required constant attempts at substantiation, manipulation, and diversion. The attention of the masses is diverted from the money issue by (1) proclamations, and, (2) a promise of potential riches to be had, given a little saavy, skill, and luck on the part of the individual, combined with systemic manipulation by the all-knowing FED; all clothed in the garb of legitimacy. Greed and necessity trump idealism. Classrooms teach, but, it's the brutality of the street where the learning actually happens. We are witnessing the decline of the great central bank experiment that began in 1913. Out of necessity, the people will turn to gold and silver soon enough. Because gold and silver are property, alone and on their own; and because they're Money. Please excuse the tirade.

Ag Mountain

(04/11/2003; 12:17:01 MDT - Msg ID: 101211)

You have a LOT to learn, glennh10

Your words sound good like a politician's, but also like a politician's there's not much substance behind them. It's easy to get away with saying superficial pleasantries when your audience doesn't know the depth of the matter. You can't get away with it here because most of us do. You should read the Gold Trail to open your eyes. You're not getting my vote. I hope you have enough gold to help you until the next election!

Daniel Druff

(04/11/2003; 12:35:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101212)

glennh10

(post barter).glennh10 (04/11/03; 11:41:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 101210)
Gold vs. Silver [The best I've read in a long time and there have been some excellent posts contributed to this forum. Many thanks, I look forward to your next tirade.]

DD

Daniel Druff

(04/11/2003; 12:39:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101213)

AB532

have they killed it?Sir Steady, I hope you're on the job,

DD

a nation of one

(04/11/2003; 12:45:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101214)

To Trurl (4/11/03; 10:20:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 101205)

"Has anyone else seen this change to their credit card terms?"

*** It comes under the heading, 'Loss of Individual Rights.' All banks employ some elements of dishonesty and thievery. I keep as few dollars in my accounts as possible. There is a neat solution to where you can keep your money without anyone stealing it. And there is never a good substitute for cash, if using cash is possible. I never write a check if I can pay in cash. You shouldn't have credit cards anyway. They're abusive. This is one reason why I think glennh10 may be right in some ways. Grown men almost have to realize -at some point- that real currency has benefits that credit and convenience lack. The only question is, "Where is that point?" Think about this: When you charge something, you have to provide information about yourself. Then, when the bill comes, you have to write a check, spend money on a stamp, and go to the post office. Time consuming. Later, you also have to reconcile the check with the bank's statement. More time. More work. That's five or six separate operations. When you pay in cash there's only one operation. And no information is given. That is why I believe it is only a matter of time until reasonably smart people -even those with only average intelligence- start figuring out significant ways to employ silver ounces and gold ounces to pay for ordinary purchases.

TownCrier

(04/11/2003; 13:07:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101215)

Eurosystem assets

I have taken a moment to look at the consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem which was released mid-week detailing the latest quarterly revaluation of assets.

In the previous quarter the net position in foreign currency declined in value by 13.1 billion EUR as the dollar fell to 1.0487 per euro and the yen was valued at 124.39 per euro.

For the latest quarter revaluation (March 31) the net position in foreign currency declined in value by another 8.0 billion EUR as the dollar further fell to its latest revaluation value of 1.0895 per euro and the yen declined to 129.18 per euro.

The book value of the Eurosystem's foreign currency position now stands at a value of EUR 211.3 billion, nominally the lowest I have witnessed.

For any continuing foreign currency losses it is from the Eurosystem's massive gold assets that there is an avenue for compensation. Owing to recent price action as gold fell during the initiation of the Iraqi war, the market-based book value for Eurosystem gold dipped for this latest revalution to EUR 307.80 per ounce ($335.35), providing no such relief this time around. The value of gold and gold receivables stands at EUR 122.7 billion, down EUR 7.6 billion on the revaluation.

And onward we go, to bolster our own reserves, and to observe what transpires by June 30th, the next revaluation, and so on, and so on. Which asset would you count on for the long haul? My money is on the gold.

Call Centennial today to discuss a diversification strategy that is right for you.

R.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/11/2003; 13:10:54 MDT - Msg ID: 101216)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. How does USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals position itself among its competitors with regard to credibility, reputability and pricing?

Cytek

(04/11/2003; 13:28:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101217)

Burning the Furniture - Sector

LeMetropoleCafe
World's Central Banks Cooking Their Books on Gold Reserves!

[SNIP]
There is no source at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) or elsewhere that reveals central bank bullion held separately from the "Gold and gold receivables" category unless the central bank chooses to report it. In other words, the cbs shield this information from their respective publics and the World. It is the way they can sell their gold and still claim the sold gold as a "Receivable" even though the leased or swapped gold may no longer exist in their inventory.

The following links will take you to the IMF's member central bank reserves template:

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/colist.htm
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/aus/eng/curaus.htm

The second link is to the Australian reserves page as an example. From theselinks you can obtain the total gold reserves for the various Western central banks. It is near 33,000 tonnes not including swaps and forward sales [Which total about 16,000 tonnes at the last BIS Triennial Report-2001]. A very good review of the whole central bank gold and gold derivative situation can be found at:

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary23.html#anchor19855

Claiming a gold swap or loan is a receivable when it has really been sold into the market subsequent to the lease is the method used by the majority of large central banks to shroud their gold transactions. The IMF's own auditors have objected to this ruse by refusing to classify gold loans
[Santiago 1999 Statistical Accounting Conference].

Burning the Furniture
The key macroeconomic principle at work is the sale of central bank gold to support weak currencies...burning furniture to stay economically warm. It is manifestly an unsustainable policy which can only end in a unique financial disaster.

Daniel Druff

(04/11/2003; 13:29:04 MDT - Msg ID: 101218)

Gold Shares Firming

Are we getting the pre-gap signal in gold today? Is this finally it?

The time must come when the establishment will attempt to let bullion rise in an orderly way. If guys like Murphy etc. start screaming, "KILL KILL", the 'inevitable' will take-on a sinister appearance.

The Fed Experiment is a flop. We need a new financial system.

DD

R Powell

(04/11/2003; 13:41:01 MDT - Msg ID: 101219)

Strange day

I just got in and checked MRCI's delayed day quotes. Stocks are down so I thought both the CBOE Volatility Index and the Bonds would be up. No sir, stocks, VIX, and bonds are all down. I find this unusual and somewhat ominous. Can anyone tell me if all of these have been down most of the day? Also, how fairs the volume on the Cow and Nasdoggie today?? Thanks.
Friday again already...
Happy Weekend !!!
Rich

Daniel Druff

(04/11/2003; 13:54:16 MDT - Msg ID: 101220)

test

Fokus: Indizes .

Daniel Druff

(04/11/2003; 13:56:33 MDT - Msg ID: 101221)

test 2

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=5D&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=&selected=chart&disclaimer=ok&alias=largechartseite&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=4&sAv1=38&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iInd0=na&sBench1=na&sBenchcount=1&sBench2=&sBench2count=1&showBenchmarkSearch=&iInd1=1&iInd2=na&iIndcount=1&sSettings=na&sTimeNav.x=135&sTimeNav.y=10nice week

Black Blade

(04/11/2003; 14:45:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101222)

Economy can't shake weakness

http://www.accessatlanta.com/ajc/epaper/editions/today/business_e36994522429226d00b7.html
Snippit:

The march on Baghdad chipped at retail sales last month, but a later Easter, cooler weather and concerns about the economy are what really kept consumers from spending. Easter fell on March 31 last year, making for difficult retail comparisons to last month. Retailers expect sales of Easter clothing and other goods to be reflected closer to the holiday, April 20.

Jobless claims are at recession levels, and consumer confidence is low. Disposable income is falling, and shoppers are shifting to plastic, despite increased credit card delinquencies. Delinquencies have reached record highs for the past six months, according to Gregory Weldon, president of Weldon Financial.

Putting more money in consumers' pockets will help stimulate the economy, according to analysis by the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank in Washington. "We're not going to see a big surge in store sales until we get income growth restored," said Larry Mishel, president of the Institute. "And that's not going to happen anytime soon."

Black Blade: I can just see it now, the economy suffers due to the "Easter Effect". Hmmm�

Black Blade

(04/11/2003; 15:01:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101223)

Invest Firm Sues Citibank, Smith Barney Over Enron Bonds

http://money.cnn.com/services/tickerheadlines/for5/200304110819DOWJONESDJONLINE000247_FORTUNE5.htm
Snippit:

WEST CHESTER, Pa. (AP)--An investment services company has sued Citibank and brokerage house Salomon Smith Barney, alleging the firms fraudulently sold it $ 70 million of worthless Enron Corp. bonds. The Vanguard Group's (X.VGI) lawsuit describes a circular investment "scheme" in which Citibank (C) and Salomon Smith Barney circulated Enron (ENRNQ) financial statements that Vanguard claims were false and misleading. Vanguard's mutual funds were duped into buying the bonds through "false and misleading" financial statements in which Citibank failed to disclose Enron's financial situation and its own role in the deals, the lawsuit alleges. Vanguard attorney Pauline C. Scalvino said the lawsuit followed the disclosure of Enron's relationship with Citibank and Salomon Smith Barney during U.S. Senate hearings on Enron over the last year.

Black Blade: This just gets better all the time. No mention of JP Morgan Chase's role, but then they probably did not deal with Vanguard. This is just the beginning of a long series of lawsuits that will hammer away at Citibank and JP Morgan Chase over the next few years. The word is several other investment and fund companies (including Fidelity and Janus) are considering doing the same.

steady

(04/11/2003; 15:19:40 MDT - Msg ID: 101224)

nevadas silver bill!

the bill died in committie, surprise surprise surprise. oh well . looks like it will be up to idaho!

Cometose

(04/11/2003; 16:35:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101225)

dollar vs indexes / dollar vs interest rates/ dollar vs GOLD

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hamilton/apr112003.htmlYou have to read this .....efficient , concise , and delivered with surgical precision on a silver pladder for your veiwing pleasure
Adam Hamilton.....nails it...../ it's not oversimplified
it's just simple and he makes it pretty plain and has the charts to document his case for GOLD .....being the safest place in the current trends and context globally...out into 2007

Clink!

(04/11/2003; 17:03:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101226)

Hamilton

http://www.zealllc.com/2003/usdbear.htmWhat you say is perfectly true, Sir Cometose, (indeed it was reading his articles which first switched me on to gold) but I fear you need to be more politically correct with the URL......

The Invisible Hand

(04/11/2003; 18:06:25 MDT - Msg ID: 101227)

Clink?

Since when is gold politically correct?

Paper Avalanche

(04/11/2003; 18:07:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101228)

Tick, tock...

http://news.yahoo.com/fc?tmpl=fc&cid=34∈=world&cat=kashmir_disputeWar appears to be infectous. Who are we now to chide another sovereign nation for taking pre-emptive action to ensure its own security.

PA

Paper Avalanche

(04/11/2003; 18:10:46 MDT - Msg ID: 101229)

I didn't think that looked correct.....

I just went to an online dictionary and realize that infectous should be spelled "infectious."

PA

R Powell

(04/11/2003; 18:11:50 MDT - Msg ID: 101230)

Cometose and Clink

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/hamilton041403pv.html Shall we try for the third link?

Clink!

(04/11/2003; 19:18:23 MDT - Msg ID: 101231)

@ Rich

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton041103.htmlAnd raise you one !

Paper Avalanche

(04/11/2003; 20:29:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101232)

@ Ari - the silver dirahm

Hey big guy! I am still eagerly awaiting your your take on the silver dirahm.

Take care.

PA

Daniel Druff

(04/11/2003; 20:32:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101233)

Ag Mountain

Ag Mountain (04/11/03; 12:17:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 101211)
You have a LOT to learn, glennh10
Your words sound good like a politician's, but also like a politician's there's not much substance behind them. It's easy to get away with saying superficial pleasantries when your audience doesn't know the depth of the matter.
************************************************************

Ag Mountain, what a terrible insult to the audience of USAGold...who has the most sophisticated and generally polite group of posters I've yet to see. As far as I'm concerned you have thrown down the gauntlet! Defend yourself, you scamp.

I suspect a simply query will dispatch you in short order...just where is the most honorable Sir glennh10 lacking in substance?

To refresh your memory:

glennh10 (04/11/03; 11:41:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 101210)
Gold vs. Silver
Regarding all the recent debating between gold and silver, IMHO, it might just as well be about Exxon gas vs. Chevron. From the standpoint of fiat, there's no difference. Both gold and silver are precious metals, and they both enjoy historical as well as current significance as money. That's right. Money. Gold and silver are money - today. They were money in the past, and they will remain money in the future. They are also property, of course. There's not an adult person walking down the street today that fails to recognize the significance of gold and silver in the hand, that they are money, in a very fundamental sense. It's a historical fact; a fact that is barely shy of being innate to the human of the modern "civilized" era (post barter). It's a fact that doesn't have to be proven. It doesn't require definition or demonstration, or a rule of law. Truth stands on its own. On the contrary, like all lies, the lie of their irrelevance to money has required constant attempts at substantiation, manipulation, and diversion. The attention of the masses is diverted from the money issue by (1) proclamations, and, (2) a promise of potential riches to be had, given a little saavy, skill, and luck on the part of the individual, combined with systemic manipulation by the all-knowing FED; all clothed in the garb of legitimacy. Greed and necessity trump idealism. Classrooms teach, but, it's the brutality of the street where the learning actually happens. We are witnessing the decline of the great central bank experiment that began in 1913. Out of necessity, the people will turn to gold and silver soon enough. Because gold and silver are property, alone and on their own; and because they're Money. Please excuse the tirade.

************************************************************

A brilliant and thought provoking post, imho. DEFEND YOURSELF...if you dare.

DD

steady

(04/11/2003; 20:50:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101234)

the silver dirham

who says the silver dirham will be available this year?
i have not seen that any where in print>
where can i buy one?

Ag Mountain

(04/11/2003; 21:08:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101235)

In-Denial Druff

You should have read farther before you came riding in to the rescue of a group of smart folks here who didn't need rescuing on my account. You're right I said "It's easy to get away with saying superficial pleasantries when your audience doesn't know the depth of the matter."

Next thing I said was "You can't get away with it here because most of us do." And most of us do, with some exceptions like yourself.

Don't ask me to pick the one spot where it's weak because the whole thing weaves back and forth all over itself with a bad thread. You don't undstand anything you've read at the Gold Trail so you should read it again until you do. Why should I reinvent the wheel, so you can coast? Try harder next time. Nothing very important is ever easy.

Black Blade

(04/11/2003; 21:37:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101236)

Market Wrap Up � Hartman

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Oil, Silver and Gold

Crude oil began the day today in negative territory with an intra-day low of $27.06 per barrel but reversed to close near the highs at $28.14. Remember, victory in Iraq is supposed to mean lower oil prices. I don't think it's all over yet. I fully expect oil to climb back over $30 per barrel. The reason is not so much that oil is getting more expensive, but rather that the U.S. dollar is in decline, which means it is losing its purchasing power. You can call it currency devaluation, or you can errantly call it inflation. Either way you slice it, the dollar doesn't buy as much as it did a year ago, and I completely expect that trend to continue.

The turnaround in oil prices today had a positive effect in the precious metals arena. For the week, silver has remained in a very tight trading range. Last Friday silver closed at $4.41 per ounce, traded this week between $4.43 and $4.49, and closed at $4.48. This appears to be a solid base that will support a shot through the $4.50 barrier next week. Gold also traded in a tight range from $322.10 to $327.90, with the close today at $327.20. Earlier in the week, $324.00 seemed to be the upper limit until it was broken on Wednesday when the bar was raised to $327.00. I watched it get stuffed every time it hit $327.00 until late in the day today, and was glad to see the close above $327. With some follow-through next week, it will be nice to put this correction behind us. Now that the weaker hands have left the precious metals sector, we should be clear to go higher. The strong hands are accumulating for the next run, and won't be shaken out easily. The short interests have been sitting on silver at $4.50 and gold at $327.00, but it shouldn't be long before the fundamentals overwhelm the paper shorts.

The only area that I have softened my stance is in regards to stocks. In my brain they are overvalued, but that really doesn't matter if everyone wants to jump in and go long for a while. I still think it's too risky except for very specific sectors. I have reduced my overall short exposure and increased my allocation to precious metals and foreign currencies. In light of the inflationary stance that the Fed has taken, I believe we will be challenged with inflationary pressures six to twelve months out. They will keep the money spigot wide open to continue flooding our system with liquidity until we get out of this mess. It sure looks like they would like to inflate the rampant debt loads into obscurity.

Black Blade: It was an interesting pre-war run and pre-war collapse in the gold market as novice investors and fund managers tried to outwit each other by "front running" the market using Gulf War I as their playbook. Finally it is good to see the trash and deadwood leave this market so that serious investors can focus on what really matters in this long-term bull market in precious metals. Most sectors in the equities markets are grossly overvalued and become more overvalued each day as earnings decline. The bond markets just have about run out of steam and the only hope is that the Fed will further slash the measly 1.25% rate. There is certainly to motivation for investors to seeks gains from such low yields in bonds and the "junk bond" (an appropriate name) market is just too risky given the current economy with rising bankruptcies and rising number of credit downgrades. The US dollar is still about 20% (or more) overvalued. The "Currency War" continues with amazing acceleration (particularly in regard to the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervention to prop up the US dollar and scuttling of the Yen). It is coming close to crunch time. The Fed will have to speed up "money creation" and fire up the printing presses to stimulate the economy in the face of falling production, less consumer spending, and rising unemployment. Precious metal portfolio insurance is ever more important now. Even if somehow the US can extricate itself from a severe economic decline (I don't see how), precious metals are selling at a sharp discount and as tangible assets have very little downside risk at current prices. "Interesting Times"

Daniel Druff

(04/11/2003; 21:58:12 MDT - Msg ID: 101237)

Ag Mountain

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Ag Mountain (04/11/03; 21:08:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 101235)
In-Denial Druff

Don't ask me to pick the one spot where it's weak because the whole thing weaves back and forth all over itself with a bad thread. You don't undstand anything you've read at the Gold Trail so you should read it again until you do. Why should I reinvent the wheel, so you can coast? Try harder next time. Nothing very important is ever easy.
***********************************************************

Let me refresh your memory, one more time:

glennh10 (04/11/03; 11:41:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 101210)
Gold vs. Silver
Regarding all the recent debating between gold and silver, IMHO, it might just as well be about Exxon gas vs. Chevron. From the standpoint of fiat, there's no difference. Both gold and silver are precious metals, and they both enjoy historical as well as current significance as money. That's right. Money. Gold and silver are money - today. They were money in the past, and they will remain money in the future. They are also property, of course. There's not an adult person walking down the street today that fails to recognize the significance of gold and silver in the hand, that they are money, in a very fundamental sense. It's a historical fact; a fact that is barely shy of being innate to the human of the modern "civilized" era (post barter). It's a fact that doesn't have to be proven. It doesn't require definition or demonstration, or a rule of law. Truth stands on its own. On the contrary, like all lies, the lie of their irrelevance to money has required constant attempts at substantiation, manipulation, and diversion. The attention of the masses is diverted from the money issue by (1) proclamations, and, (2) a promise of potential riches to be had, given a little saavy, skill, and luck on the part of the individual, combined with systemic manipulation by the all-knowing FED; all clothed in the garb of legitimacy. Greed and necessity trump idealism. Classrooms teach, but, it's the brutality of the street where the learning actually happens. We are witnessing the decline of the great central bank experiment that began in 1913. Out of necessity, the people will turn to gold and silver soon enough. Because gold and silver are property, alone and on their own; and because they're Money. Please excuse the tirade.
**********************************************************

Ag Mountain, certainly the vast truths presented along the Gold Trail must have left an impression or two which you might deign to share inorder to support your rudeness. Let me help you...

Let's examine the following:

"Both gold and silver are precious metals, and they both enjoy historical as well as current significance as money. That's right. Money. Gold and silver are money - today. They were money in the past, and they will remain money in the future. They are also property, of course. There's not an adult person walking down the street today that fails to recognize the significance of gold and silver in the hand, that they are money, in a very fundamental sense. It's a historical fact; a fact that is barely shy of being innate to the human of the modern "civilized" era (post barter)." glennh10
*****************************************************

BRILLIANT...truthful in every respect contrary to the very limited vision, I'm sorry to say, of Aristotle, who fortunately is exceedingly advanced in thinking than you.

Your opinions are baseless and worse than than, they are boring.

Redeem yourself, you lout, prove your narrow minded blather with quotations of those whose shoes you are unworthy to clean.

DD

Daniel Druff

(04/11/2003; 22:21:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101238)

Ag Mountain

I should have said,...BRILLIANT...truthful in every respect contrary to the very limited vision, I'm sorry to say, of Aristotle, who fortunately is exceedingly MORE advanced in thinking than you.

DD

Black Blade

(04/11/2003; 22:35:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101239)

Pressure is on gas prices - Low supplies mean costs could spike this summer

http://www.canada.com/calgary/calgaryherald/info/business/story.html?id=7C1659E3-53AD-4C12-9A67-F3C3CC5FCFED
Snippit:

New forecasts are suggesting that no one is getting a break on natural gas prices over the summer, as supplies remain unusually low. Natural-gas prices surged on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday, after a new report showed storage levels of the commodity dropped again last week, defying expectations. The U.S. department of energy's weekly storage report showed stocks dropped by nine billion cubic feet (bcf), instead of the expected rise of 16 bcf. "It was definitely a surprise," said Martin King, an analyst at FirstEnergy Capital Corp. in Calgary. "We aren't seeing demand being beaten down."

"Stocks are at least 300 bcf below the comfort level for this time of year," said Calgary energy consultant Len Coad of LCA Research. "If we get weather at or above normal for the summer, it will mean more pressure on gas supplies." Observers are speculating that gas prices could remain at or above current levels for the remainder of the summer after reaching near-record highs over the winter. "We could see gas at $10 US if there's a heat wave," said Peter Linder, an analyst with the DeltaOne Energy Fund in Calgary. Prices are high as demand for natural gas remains strong while producers have been unable to boost supplies. Canadian supplies could become even tighter as exploration drilling falls out of favour in Western Canada.

Black Blade: The focus has been on the POO as the Iraq War winds down. However, NatGas is domestically produced and few users can switch to cheaper fuel. Older dual fuel power facilities have been decommissioned and almost all new power generation is NatGas-fired due to clean air restrictions and the quicker permitting process for NatGas power plant construction. The projected decline in NatGas production this year looks to exceed the 2.5% decline expected. We are certain to see very tight supply over the next two years as drill rig counts remain very low. Hopefully a very sharp decline in economic activity and a deepening economic recession can reduce demand enough to stretch supply through the next couple of years. This is injection season now and so far we have had a minor injection of 37 bcf followed by last week's draw of -9 bcf. Accuweather has predicted a colder April so that should keep injections low or maybe even result in another draw from storage. We are "running out of daylight" for injection and are on course for another severe energy crisis. Forget oil and think electricity. Electricity is what powers the US industrial economy, the "new economy", homes and businesses. NatGas feedstock is necessary for fertilizers for agriculture and the chemical industry. At current use and drop in production we will fall short in mid-winter this year. The higher energy costs will kill any slim chance of economic recovery.

mikal

(04/11/2003; 22:41:49 MDT - Msg ID: 101240)

@BlackBlade

Re: "...precious metals are selling at a sharp discount and as tangible assets..."
Good analysis and yes PM's are a bargain for MANY reasons. But glenn11h posted that most people on the street see silver as money, where really, one of the reasons I hold PM's is the majority's ignorance. People commonly saw Susan B. Anthony and Sacagawea coins as silver & gold respectively. Stock ownership during 20th century crashes was in a decided minority of households. But today, equities are held by a vast majority of households and basic and sensible economics and investing is not taught as well. Some of the kinder reactions I receive on the street and from relatives regarding PM's are "it's jewelry", "it's that high-class junk", "it's antique", "it's too flashy", "it's old-fashioned", "it's for girls", "it's for old ladies" and "it's too expensive"!

Black Blade

(04/11/2003; 22:45:42 MDT - Msg ID: 101241)

The News We Kept to Ourselves

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/11/opinion/11JORD.html?ei=5062&en=ea21e8c88feae21c&ex=1050638400&pagewanted=print&position=top
Snippit:

ATLANTA � Over the last dozen years I made 13 trips to Baghdad to lobby the government to keep CNN's Baghdad bureau open and to arrange interviews with Iraqi leaders. Each time I visited, I became more distressed by what I saw and heard � awful things that could not be reported because doing so would have jeopardized the lives of Iraqis, particularly those on our Baghdad staff. Working for a foreign news organization provided Iraqi citizens no protection. The secret police terrorized Iraqis working for international press services who were courageous enough to try to provide accurate reporting. Some vanished, never to be heard from again. Others disappeared and then surfaced later with whispered tales of being hauled off and tortured in unimaginable ways. Obviously, other news organizations were in the same bind we were when it came to reporting on their own workers.

We also had to worry that our reporting might endanger Iraqis not on our payroll. I knew that CNN could not report that Saddam Hussein's eldest son, Uday, told me in 1995 that he intended to assassinate two of his brothers-in-law who had defected and also the man giving them asylum, King Hussein of Jordan. If we had gone with the story, I was sure he would have responded by killing the Iraqi translator who was the only other participant in the meeting. After all, secret police thugs brutalized even senior officials of the Information Ministry, just to keep them in line (one such official has long been missing all his fingernails). Still, I felt I had a moral obligation to warn Jordan's monarch, and I did so the next day. King Hussein dismissed the threat as a madman's rant. A few months later Uday lured the brothers-in-law back to Baghdad; they were soon killed.

I came to know several Iraqi officials well enough that they confided in me that Saddam Hussein was a maniac who had to be removed. One Foreign Ministry officer told me of a colleague who, finding out his brother had been executed by the regime, was forced, as a test of loyalty, to write a letter of congratulations on the act to Saddam Hussein. An aide to Uday once told me why he had no front teeth: henchmen had ripped them out with pliers and told him never to wear dentures, so he would always remember the price to be paid for upsetting his boss. Again, we could not broadcast anything these men said to us.

I felt awful having these stories bottled up inside me. Now that Saddam Hussein's regime is gone, I suspect we will hear many, many more gut-wrenching tales from Iraqis about the decades of torment. At last, these stories can be told freely.

Eason Jordan is chief news executive at CNN.

Black Blade: There have been several such stories coming to light. Even some stories of "Human Shields" (AKA "Darwin Award Candidates") who left soon after arriving in Baghdad and hearing tales from Iraqis who said that they hoped there would be a war. It should be "interesting".

Black Blade

(04/11/2003; 22:55:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101242)

Mikal

I agree that most people today are not to bright when it comes to investing. I was lucky enough to play off of the "New Economy" and get out in early 2000. I also slowly accumulated bargains like precious metals and very select shares in energy (mostly high yielding trusts and LPs). When people moan about their losses in the stock market and their shrinking 401K retirement plans I just remark "yeah it was so obvious what was going to happen that I switched to gold and energy". Amazingly even today most of them say much the same thing as you mentioned. I then say "well I have no losses on my investments and my IRA is going strong". Hopefully they get the point, but I fear that they have been well trained by "modern thinking" and gullible to the harpings of the carnival barkers on CNBC.

- Black Blade

Mr Gresham

(04/11/2003; 23:11:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101243)

Gold vs. Silver?

http://courses.unt.edu/dvann/gulliver.htmIn a word: Diversification.

Tastes great! Less filling!

Big-Enders vs. Little-Enders? Something to fill in the time here, while we're waiting. Waiting for who? Why, we're waiting for ---

My advice: Rest up the night before you have to move your silver. Do yoga stretches; eat a hearty breakfast. Book appointment with a massage therapist for the next day. Ice sore muscles...

HKExpat

(04/12/2003; 07:01:45 MDT - Msg ID: 101244)

Long Time Lurker

Been hiding in the electronic shadows for a long time. Greetings all.Since the late 90's I've been perusing the output of Ted Butler , Dave Morgan , the disappearing Chapman , Murphy etc and I've learnt a lot.Also taken heed and acted ,along with friends of mine.Thought I'd share something I've learnt.Be very carefull as to where you purchase and store bullion.Some time ago I approached a bank in Hong Kong - Bank of China branch in Central-re-the purchase of silver bullion.Not being a Chinese national I was told that I'd have to use a proxy,which I did.I stored the bullion in safety deposit boxes in the bank and just to be sure I kept the keys.Well , after a while the bank staff broke open nine of my safety deposit boxes.The proxy proceeded to clean them all out and sell the bullion straight back to the bank staff , pocketed the money and ran.The Hong Kong police were called in by myself ,arrested the proxy and threw him into prison.He's now doing a long stretch.Nothing was ever recovered so I've paid huge school fees.The local constabulary , however , could or would go no further and communicated their apologies to myself in this regard.All blame was put conveniently on the proxy , and the ten ton elephant in the living room was studiously ignored by all as any further moves were " difficult" and "sensitive".
So , look at geographical / political jurisdiction very carefully.
And , look at the institution you are dealing with very carefully.Are there safe , standardised procedures.Does the institution deal honestly,ethically and fairly with locals and foreign investors.Is there adequate supervision of staff.Is there a culture of integrity within the institution.Is there effective rule of law in that particular area.Is there an effective policing body within that industry etc.
HKExpat.

GoldnSilver2002

(04/12/2003; 08:10:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101245)

If you missed the last wave,you were lucky.

Well if you missed the last wave in gold you were lucky.Most gold analysts will have a hard time on the next one.The impression is war over,gold surge is over, that was it.Those in the know simply start now.390 in asia was the proof the gold bull was on.Gold may dip a bit but the smart ones are buying now,knowing full well the shares did not have their run last time.The shares didnt respond because they knew,gold would get hit down and most held on too long,me included ;)Good luck to all the gold analysts,you were all wrong.If you want security,buy physical now its a steal, the shares are a bargain again too!Next stop 354,here we go again.Iraq was a nice sideshow but nothing has changed.People cant spend what they dont have,especially with all the none existent inflation.This is simple math,we are tapped out,recovery from where?3rd mortgages?The longterm outlook remains gold up with wild volatility.Consumer down and out for the count.

a nation of one

(04/12/2003; 08:19:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101246)

To HKExpat (04/12/03; 07:01:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 101244)

Interesting information. Can't help but wonder about the extent to which genes are responsible. But maybe it is the case that all bankers are fundamentally subject to the same emotional and intellectual forces, it just being that the way they respond to them is better developed in some. Still, it would appear that a banker's motive in honoring the trust given him, by not plundering his customers' wealth, is the same in all instances: That the banker would lose the confidence of his clients and potential clients, nothing more. Perhaps I am wrong about this. If so, maybe someone will specifically point it out to me. A banker who has some different motive would be able to state it. Until then I am stuck with my present perception. A lot in our civilization depends on confidence that people have in each other, and when that confidence is breached, it becomes more difficult to distinguish ourselves from the other animals. Any box that can be opened by someone other than myself -no matter how noble or 'necessary' the reason- is not something that I need. Certainly I am not the only one who feels this way. And so it suprises me that bankers do not realize that they therefore have a legitimate business interest in disenabling all government bodies from being able to examine or control what may be in such boxes. These types of conflicts between people's desires and needs, and the desires and needs of those who seek to govern, are sometimes mutually exclusive and cannot be resolved entirely to the satisfaction of either. Gold helps us in this problem by making it necessary for human beings to try and work these things out in amicable ways. Ultimately humans will do this. There can be no other outcome that I know of.

Topaz

(04/12/2003; 08:46:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101247)

HK Expat, G&S

That was a sad tale HK, my sympathies...
G&S...dunno about another run @$354 just yet, You said it yourself...no inflation, and with Oil coming off, this MAY be sufficient reason for further S/T downside.
Euro/PoG is the key imo. IT's been averaging 320 until recently and I'd bet we'll see it there again shortly...may be 320E-354$...but then again the 6% premium E/D is disinflating Euroland moreso.
Odd Bond behaviour on Friday could be indicating $ strength next week (vis Euro) and a 310-320 parity price could still be on the cards...if those pesky DOW components can just eke out some EARNINGS!

R Powell

(04/12/2003; 09:26:20 MDT - Msg ID: 101248)

Too Cool to talk to the likes of you

Ag Mountain: your words from yesterday...

Ag Mountain (04/11/03; 21:08:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 101235)
In-Denial Druff
You should have read farther before you came riding in to the rescue of a group of smart folks here who didn't need rescuing on my account. You're right I said "It's easy to get away with saying superficial pleasantries when your audience doesn't know the depth of the matter."

Next thing I said was "You can't get away with it here because most of us do." And most of us do, with some exceptions like yourself.

Don't ask me to pick the one spot where it's weak because the whole thing weaves back and forth all over itself with a bad thread. You don't undstand anything you've read at the Gold Trail so you should read it again until you do. Why should I reinvent the wheel, so you can coast? Try harder next time. Nothing very important is ever easy.

#############################
My thoughts...
Most of my generation and probably those before and after remember our high school days fondly but there was always that too-cool group, the "in-crowd" that walked about pretending to be so much coolier than everyone else. Bob Dylan described them as those "who try to hide what they don't know to begin with."

Your 101235 post reminds me of those pompous, over inflated "in crowd" egos. It is self righteous claptrap delivered with a holier than thou attitude exuding that same old pretension of "I know what you don't."

You've outdone yourself but further insulting us that because you judge us either too ignorant to understand or too lazy to study, therefore you are somehow above us and exempt from answering the original question put before you. Recall please that that original request was for an explanation of why you flamed an earlier post.

Either add me to your list of stupid, uncool people OR explain yourself. If you'd rather just keep going and ignore my existence since I'm obviously not cool and part of the Trail in-crowd, suit yourself. I will suffer no lose.
Rich

CoBra(too)

(04/12/2003; 10:45:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101249)

Weak Economy here to stay!

http://www.accessatlanta.com/ajc/epaper/editions/today/business_e36994522429226d00b7.htmlEvermore economists are coming around to see the reality, that real growth can not ever be sustained by consumption and the printing press. The FED's emergency - are just that - Emergency! Once the IR tools are nearly exhausted, other measures - read (dirty) tricks - will not effect any turnaround, let alone sustainable growth.

The Austrian Economists have always stipulated that capital investment, the only way to sustained long term growth has to come from private savings, which means consumption renunciation. It was the advent of the Keynesians (pro-)claiming the easy way out, including big government, deficit spending and all the rest of the unsound foundations in all walks of life we have to suffer now as a consequence.

The pyramiding problems now acutely visible in the monetary and financial structures will always lead to retrenchment. The farther the delusion of a monetary system, based on debt has worked its way down to the already maxxed out (end-)consumer the more the eventual return to reality will hur and the longer it will take to correct the dis-equilibria and mis-allocations of capital built up during the illusion of boom times.

Even George Soros said yesterday in an interview with an Austrian paper that he expects a recessionary scenario not ending before 2010 -12.

And finally, as the war for Iraqi freedom has ostensibly run its course - the markets luke warm reaction may be the harbinger of reality setting in.

Reality means the US is not only overstretched militarily, economically, fiscally and monetarily - it also has lost credence in ever growing parts of the world.

Protect yourself from the outfall of all above - and hibernate in the coming Kontratieff Winter by stock up on every means of survival and make the real money of our forbears the means of your financial survival!

cb2

PS: Hey, Rich - seems we all got a bout of Dandruff - Just brush it off and look for reverse "Head & Shoulders" formations ... Cheers from your Austrian.

Cometose

(04/12/2003; 10:46:02 MDT - Msg ID: 101250)

oil

It is interesting in light of the Post of Another and Friend of Another to look at the relationship of Oil and GOLD in the decade of the 70's .......
Many may believe that these are unrelated events .......however the guidance of Another and Friend of Another indicates that they (Opec )have their own agenda and Cartel that bears out a distinctive link between Oil and GOld......The press didn't do much coverage on it but there were several (3) refinery explosions in a 2-3 year period in the most recent 5 year period ; Argentina had a failed coup attempt and subsequently went completely off line....then NIGERIA....THIS oil thing is not over.....it may just be getting started.... Look at a chart of the OIL in the 70/s and then GOlD. The embargo started and got going long before the Gold situation surfaced..... this time is different because the stakes are higher and there are more players.....Increased polarization is going to occure because of this Iraq thing.....more ISLAMIC cohesion behind the dinar.... 1 billion strong......and now CHINA and JAPAN .
THe Japanese Housewife will be a continual Watchman on the Financial WALL sounding the alarm.....that eventually will be heard round the world....WE live in a GLOBAL MARKET now connected to INTERENET INFORMED PUBLIC.....

However for RIGHT NOW , we got Iraqui oil.........what else did we get????????????????????Have to wait till tomorrow to find out .......as this web is spun into an intriquite weave with many intersting turns.....

Intersting article this week on Saudi Arabia getting a free pass because of thier trillions in our markets....maybe we should go in there. Those trillions are insurance....we probably won't go into the house of Saud.... what a dent some of those trillions will make in the GOld Market....and the Silver Markets.....hmmm....

Don't hear much about the Republican Guard ....I thought there were a lot more of them than what is apparent on TV coverage .....wonder where they went?????Wonder where Sadaam went.....In retrospect ..considering what happened last week ,,,,you just have to wonder why they called up 100,000 more troops....... more fireworks sure to follow....... more war perhaps in a new prospect...... more distraction.....more market palpitations.....and electro shock treatment to the Patient on the table in the Emergency room.....
Heard yesterday , Russians running war games in Indian Ocean with the Indians to whom they have been offloading much of their weaponry .....wonder if Korea is nearby . Heard a rumor....Korea wants to Back Iran in the next skirmish with TROOPS>.....Get enough resisitance in their body bags begin coming home .....press will start having a field day with the stuff...George may remake the look of the Middle East and may affect a change in history....
but it better look perfect while it's happening .....
or it will further tarnish our image globally and
who is going to pay for this venture.......
is this also part of our campaign contribution to get him reelected......sounds like a real keynesian appraoch to politics .....

....."doesn't matter whether we win or lose
it's who pays for the game of greed the big boys choose"

THe further down in the pot you go to stir .....the fishier it smells....

WHat is on the agenda for tomorrow.........
.................will be revealed to you in the media in
due time......your future unfolds.....in the WORLD ACCORDING TO ?????????????????????????????????WHO IS WRITING THE SCRIPT??????????????????
You write your script and they write theirs......

....and three lepers sat at the gate of the city and reasoned one with another ....WHY SIT WE HERE UNTIL WE DIE..
if go into the city we die ...if we stay here we die ( for the city was besieged by the Syrian army and there was a famine....
And GOD sent delusion into the camp of the Syrians (in the sound of many horses and chariots) and the Syrian Army Fled leaving all their tents and thier food, supplies,and much booty behind ....so the siege ended and so did the famine...

if you ever felt that Freedom was under Siege , now is the time to PRAY ........Liberating the rest of the world does not have to come at the cost of our freedom and rights. OR is the cracking down on our freedoms connected somehow with maintaining control in the midst of a Plight the will beset us in our future.....which is now crawling accross the finanicial and economic landscape even as we speak........
The admonitions of BLACK BLADE will seem like words of COMFORT then.......You will then understand why the Mormons store food ........for their own families and for another....

People make fun of the Vietnamese and the Hispanic immigrating public in the way they live to survive with multiple families living together in tight single family dwellings.......I anticipate that lifestyle becoming wide spread.....

Pizz

(04/12/2003; 12:40:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101251)

Two Worlds (at least)

Now I understand a little more, and now I'm even more of a long term gold and silver bull.

Having left the rat race of the metropolitan life style, (at least for 5 days of the week)and now working in a much smaller bedroom community in central Washington State, the cultural shock I've experienced to date is a bit unsettling.

For the most part these people have taken the emotional swings out of life. Fiat is currency and it works today, and it will work tomorrow. Gas prices are up, but it will go down, so they just don't buy as much anymore. If beef is high, they buy pork or chicken instead - no big deal. If their credit won't let them buy the car or home they want, they settle for less, fix what they have, or maybe wait a bit longer. War with Iraq? Having a tough go against the sports channels and soaps.

Gold and silver? They know what they are. Just don't have a real good reason (yet) to own it. I carry a silver round and a gold eagle with me all the time. I pull them out and show them a lot. In the city, attention goes to the gold eagle about 7 out of 10 times (it's the first one they pick up). In the country, so far, everyone has picked up the silver round first, and it takes them about 5 seconds to read the "One Ounce .999 Fine Silver". Then they usually ask what the other one is. I hand it to them, they look, read a bit, and all most all say, "Oh, thats a 50 dollar gold piece". I respond that it's one ounce of gold and ask them what they think it's worth, and they usually don't know or say fifty dollars.

Perception and marketing immediately come to mind. How long will it be before the mines and World Gold Council start MARKETING their product? And now I also have a pretty good idea why the establishment stamps $50.00 on one ounce of gold.

As far as trends and the future? It won't take too much more government mismanagement to start to light up the rural areas to the benefit of PM's. When you have the basic necessities of life increasing in price as now, and just as soon as they realize these prices are not going to go down significantly, they will start looking for alternatives. Most of them, at least my generation and older remember the seventies and eighties, and quite a few remember the PM bull market - especially silver. Many have commented on it.

Once this trend starts, it will last a long time. The city types will play the options, futures, and derivatives and give us our violent ups and downs, but the grass roots areas will give us our consistant up trend, and it will be physical they will buy, cause "stocks" are horses and cattle, "options" are what make a car more expensive, "futures" are what they want for their kids, "bonds" equate to, as in James, and did he have a brother, and "derivatives" are what make some gas better than another.

Now, back to fixing up the house and starting to dread the five days a week of motel living - Mr G, do you ever get used to being on the road????

Pizz

Leigh

(04/12/2003; 13:21:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101252)

For Investors, Gold's Vision 20/20

New York (Reuters) - Global investors are climbing out of the bomb shelters on a fairly good bet that the Iraq war has reached the end game.

But the lesson a lot of people learned from the geopolitical script was this: Gold shouldn't have been written off as just a "barbaric relic" of the past -- never to be mentioned in the same breath with the word "investment."

Indeed, Wall Street could not help but notice that gold again proved itself as a super-sensitive, forward-looking indicator. It predicted how the Gulf War would go and how long it would last....

Fast rewind to Feb. 5. The price of gold peaked at around $391 as speculation by arm-chair generals about a long and bloody war sent stock prices in retreat. But then gold reversed course, sliding 11.2 percent to $336 by March 19th, the day U.S.-led forced unleashed the military campaign in Iraq.

"Godl was signaling a short and successful war -- even before it began," Salsman says. "While most of the media initially hinted that the U.S. military was getting bogged down, gold was reporting and predicting the opposite."

History is full of examples that gold is the best "war correspondent," Salsman says....

It's fair to say the stock market will remain vulnerable to more bad news. So gold may retain some of its recent luster as people continue to hedge their bets.

Don't expect investors to jump back with both feet into a premium-priced U.S. stock market. Money managers are not patriotic types. They'll shift to places where their cash will be treated well.

By Pierre Belec
_____
Sorry, don't have a full link. Good to see gold back in the news!

Mr Gresham

(04/12/2003; 13:24:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101253)

Hey Pizz

Welcome back. It's a different life, ain't it? No, I'm more settled in now than I've ever been. I'll tell ya about it sometime.

Ag Mountain

(04/12/2003; 14:24:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101254)

Rich Powell

I can admit that I'm very sure I don't have the skill to succeed where better men have failed. Glennh10 was laying down a long line of opinion as if it was reality so I basically told him that plane won't fly and he'd better go back to flight school if he wants to get it off the ground.

There was a small cult of people in California who all shared a common opinion about the Hale-Bopp comet, and they didn't get off the ground either. If someone had stepped in to tell them their opinions were patently delusional, they probably wouldn't all be 6 feet underground today.

My comments were intended for Glennh10 but suddenly Danial Druff jumped on me out of nowhere with an attitude so he must be something like the door guard for the cult defending or insulating the victims' own delusions from the true light of day. Now you're doing the same thing. Are you guys are trying to stay so closed-minded to the real world that you have to use a network of support from each other to prevent any of your cult from getting exposure to daylight or just rumors of daylight and wondering about the real world outside your walls?

I'll tell you what I told Glennh10, you have a lot to learn too. To anyone of us on the outside looking in, you guys have invented your very own rules of physics. I'm telling you, your plane won't fly. Being cool has nothing to do with it.

I once told a kid not to jump of the roof. He had a red blanket tied around his neck and thought he knew what he was doing because he talked about Superman all the time with his friends and read the comic books. He thought I was the stupid one because I told him he couldn't fly with his cape. I didn't even bother to explain gravity. He also thought I was mean because I did stop him from jumping. I was bigger than he was and that was enough at the time. He always remembered that, but I don't know if he ever thanked me when he got older and smarter than he was back then.

Help doesn't always arrive with flowers and feel like hugs and kisses, but that doesn't mean it isn't help. Most people have figured that out when they're teenagers.

I pointed those cult guys to the Gold Trail without any sugarcoating, and for that I get your invective. That's a bizarre reaction. Why do you feel so threatened by my comments to help those other guys see some daylight?

R Powell

(04/12/2003; 15:10:33 MDT - Msg ID: 101255)

Ag Mountain

I too read Glennh10 post and reacted much as you say you did. I viewed it as opinion unsubstantiated by any facts or links, as are many other posts. I benefit most from those messages that provide new news, facts and, of course, interpretations (opinions) of such especially as to how these developments will effect gold and silver.

However, Glennh10's post imho did not deserve the condescending blasting that you gave it. It was probably more the attitude you projected toward it along with your disdain to elaborate on or even identify those points on which you disagree that disturbed me. No one benefited from your response while many were saddened.

None among us is all-knowing. No one is always correct. Would it surprise you if I mentioned that some of us even disagree with some of the Trail literature that you point at as gospel and upon which you judge the words of others? Many subjects discussed here are akin to philosophy in that, when discussion ends, there are no entirely correct or incorrect answers forthcoming. Perhaps none exist. In this regard, the study of finance (of which precious metals are a part) must entertain and respect different, sometimes opposing viewpoints. Let us separate fact from opinion as much as possible while searching for the answers but let us remember also that the end we seek will take the form of an opinion. It is the difference of opinion that makes a market. Everyone is allowed one and entitled to one. Everyone is entitled to disagree but, please, in a somewhat more constructive and less haughty manner. Then, perhaps, our mutual research, thoughts and opinions can and will be a benefit to all. Lastly, let us remember to attempt to stay on subject which I have not so I'll beg forgiveness of our host and end here.
Peace and Happy Weekend
Rich

Ag Mountain

(04/12/2003; 16:20:41 MDT - Msg ID: 101256)

Rich Powell please don't waste this space with off topic etiquette lessons, thank you

http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.htmlI don't see what you're seeing. I looked again at my single post to Glennh10. It was seven sentences long and not a condescending blasting as you called it. Take another look yourself at it --- 101211. Without reinventing the wheel I told him his physics was bad and told him where he could go to school for correction. Danniel Druff got more of the same when he came barging in saying show your cards, show your cards.

I agree, the Gold Trail is not a kind of gospel that makes a truth simply because it says so and so. The truth is already out in the world, but it's the Gold Trail that does the best job revealing it, better than I could, so why should I try to say it when I can just point to it? If that can't knock the cobwebs out of someones head I know I sure can't do it so I'm not going to even try. I'll just point. That is my form of help and it doesn't represent meanness.

The only thing that's ugly in all of this is your strong desire to find meanness in my intentions where there is in fact none. Frankness is not always a sign of hostility. Some people don't have time to burn. But however much time they have they should always make room to learn. I used to think like you did, but then I discovered I had been wrong all along. Wrong like you and those cult guys. You can find the truth and wisdom on your own if you try lots harder doing lots of your own investigation, but the Gold Trail gives you the shortcuts to the truth that's already there.

I think it's off topic. We're suppose to discuss gold not discuss how people are discussing gold. I'll stop posting for a while if you silver money culters would really rather discuss my short manner. It's nonproductive. Thank you.

CoBra(too)

(04/12/2003; 16:29:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101257)

Listening with half an Ear ...

To Jim Puplavas weekly broadcast - I've just picked up the road to disaster ... "Home Equity EXTRACTION" ... can only say - SPOT ON:

From here on I'd feel SPOT GO - and please turn down the personal destractions - we've heard them all ... long before - thank you cb2

PS: I'm a Philistine by nature ...

Cavan Man

(04/12/2003; 16:36:24 MDT - Msg ID: 101258)

@CB(too)

I thought you were Bohemian (au natural).

Ag Mountain

(04/12/2003; 16:44:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101259)

Getting there on the easy road

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/default.htmlIf I'm walking down the street at noon and somebody is standing around telling everybody it's 3:00, I'm not going to stop and build him a clock and teach him solar astronomy and the philosophy of time. I'm going to say he's wrong, point to Big Ben, and keep on walking.

Who would have thought his buddies would try to beat me up for my cheekiness.

All that to justify another post to say this is a better link than my previous one for looking the Gold Trail. It's alot like Big Ben which doesn't make the time be what it is, but it can help you learn about it especially when you don't have a good clue to begin with.

Pizz

(04/12/2003; 16:55:24 MDT - Msg ID: 101260)

CB2

On home equity extraction. Here's a real life (mine) senario.

Pulled a refi last year, paid off some debt and bought some physical. Made sense, lowered my monthly payments and gave me a little more monthly cash to save to buy more as we go along.

Then unexpectedly, I make the decision to relocate and so I need to sell the house into a fairly soft market. I'm thankful I only borrowed about 75% of market (now it's about 80%) and I have to put a little more back into it than I normally would just to sell it.

I doubt seriously I'll have to get into any of my investments, but I have the option if I need to (paper gold first of course if I need it).

Now, it didn't even dawn on me a year ago that I would even consider selling my residence, but I will admit that if I hadn't been a bit conservative during the transaction, I'd be sweating a bit right now (don't want to sell any of my PM investments).

Now take someone who has borrowed 125% of equity and used the cash to buy toys, vacations, etc. Disaster waiting to happen, or maybe a major lost opportunity cause they could't liquidate in order to take advantage of a good career move.

Not enough like us to have this come out good in the long run. Nice to have a golden cushion if needed. Debt is turning into one dirty bird.

Pizz

slingshot

(04/12/2003; 17:18:25 MDT - Msg ID: 101261)

Pizz Msg# 101251

Enjoyed your post.
Slingshot--------------<>

CoBra(too)

(04/12/2003; 17:19:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101262)

@CM - Ha ...

Not naturalized, though!

That's how Benes kept Austrian fortunes to "hisself" (neat old lingo) ...
And otherwise, I'm still pretty much a Bohemian - hopefully.

- just pronounce it - Ne`va`da` - and you may be on the Moldawa and drink Pilsener instead of Tullamore.

Uh, Oh, just thinking about seeing Johnny Boy Snow (Job) on the tube da other day. Never seen a more fake guy stating official lies with a (crooked) though sarcastic smile.

Add a little Rum(sfeld), Wolfowitz', Cheney', Myers and a few Perles of ultimate Tabasco wisdom - shake or stir it - and what you'll get is an explosive coctail of Molotow type of Bloody Mary's!
... I'm sure you can relate to that, without meaning it in any derogatory sense - my good friend CM! So whatever that means, we'll still bash your head - since the 'Zauberlehrling' we've created, has created a monster. Fortunately in an area we've zeroed in as important to our energetic survival. ... And if it wasn't Saddam we'd have to invent some one like him (extracted from position paper 1992 signed by the likes of aforementioned gentlemen).

/Der Moor hat seinen Dienst getan/ Nun kann er gehen -

Cynical yours ...let's go lootin' the rest of CB's GOLD - Oh, it's merely a barbarous relic - anyhoo - cb2

CoBra(too)

(04/12/2003; 17:35:50 MDT - Msg ID: 101263)

Pizz; Slingshot ...

I did too. Liked your post also and thank you!

Signing off for tonight - take care gents and
have a great weekend ... while I still listen to the
rest of Jim Puplava's radio Hour(s) ... cb2

Cor Tauri

(04/12/2003; 18:22:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101264)

raise the debt ceiling by $973 billion in fiscal 2004, to $7.23 trillion

http://www.nj.com/news/expresstimes/pa/index.ssf?/base/news-5/1050138301235370.xml
Saturday, April 12, 2003

By BILL CAHIR
The Express-Times

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- House lawmakers at 2:39 a.m. Friday passed a $2.24 trillion budget for next year, narrowly endorsing a plan that would allow new tax cuts, stomach a record deficit of $385 billion and raise the government debt ceiling by nearly $1 trillion in just one year.

CoBra(too)

(04/12/2003; 18:38:03 MDT - Msg ID: 101265)

Mortgage?

@ Pizz - Sorry to say that I'm still around - instead of sleeping, though calling 75% of mortgage on a residence conservative may be just that, though only in the US of A.

In Europe you've probably have to prove your solid income to even qualify for a 50% mortgage on your home - even if the going market price may be 300% of the latest valuation.

Since I do feel the US housing prices are comprising the last bubble to burst - it also held up the consumption boom a/o wealth effect in view of the collapsing SM 'valuations' - a sorry euphemism for the negative effects on real wealth - and a reminder of foreclosures to come.

The GSE's a.k.a. Fannie, Freddie & Co. are exactly that. GSE's - gov. sponsored - not garuanteed! Looking at their Balance Sheets - it's similar to the BS the french inspecteur Cleauseau(?) has deplored - the missing 'shi'it' on his bed and the big 'piss' of steak on his plate. ... And please forgive my French - as I'm just learning about freedom fries...- something I won't ever understand as the first potato plants were imported to Europe by the adventurers of old( Pizz-aro at any chance?).

Anyway, to be or not to be in GOLD is akin to trivial pursuit - as long as the housing market in the US is the same kind of perceived illusion ... as the term home equity extraction - like pulling teeth - you'll lose a slice of your worth - tooth by tooth (and there's no eye for an eye - not even for an eye-tooth - it's only a GSE - god sent excuse!).

Remember to take your gold fillings with you! cb2

21mabry

(04/12/2003; 18:56:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101266)

mining

I have an anthroplogy class on north american indian tribes.Every week we study a diffrent tribe their culture,history, way of life its interesting.The past few weeks we have been looking at canadian reservations.If all the material we have been using is accurate the mining companies including the gold miners,have been none to kind to the native american tribes and their enviroment.Lots of problems with strip mining,caustic and cancer causing agents getting into the water supply'smelters putting out alot of pollution, sounds like some of these tribes are having a tough time.

Pizz

(04/12/2003; 19:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 101267)

CB2

More on mortgages. It's perception. I think most will agree that the US mindset is just a bit different than in that of Europe (or anywhere else for that matter).

I do believe that the populace of the largest debtor nation history has ever seen has inflation "programmed" into them since birth and it is continuing at the highest levels thru the endless printing of more dollars. Europe is just a lttle (a lot??) more conservative regarding the rampant printing of money, and from first hand experience of the disaster it can bring. And since fiat is created by lending, what you say makes complete sense to me. What I consider conservative you consider on the edge, and although I know borrowing 125% against something is rediculous, you may have a hard time even compreheding the thought.

What we are discussing is why I am of the opinion that real estate is not in a bubble. I see nothing different right now, 4 years into the normal 10 year cycle of real estate, than I have for the last 4 decades. And I will keep on saying that deflation is not an option for the US. I started that line over a year ago when nearly everyone was screaming and scared stiff of the deflation monster.

Can we print them faster than the rest of the world can cash them in? (to gold maybe???) We shall see, but I think it's a safe bet that Alan can flood the world with cyber greenbacks faster than everyone else can dump them. Not too many places to put them that is safe except tangibles, ya think???

We shall see.

Thanks for the kind words (Mr G and Slingshot too.

Pizz

physicalman

(04/12/2003; 20:08:49 MDT - Msg ID: 101268)

the Granola state just don't get it

http://dailynews.com/Stories/0%2c1413%2c200~20954~1317844%2c00.htmlthey stop gold mining and try to make the sheeple think that nothing replaces paper!

a nation of one

(04/12/2003; 20:09:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101269)

hold the brush

He may be a white flake and an irritating disease of the head, but Dan Druff is on our side. He's right about some things. We should hear him for that reason. We all have annoying aspects to our nature. If we excluded people on that basis, we couldn't have a forum.

a nation of one

(04/12/2003; 20:11:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101270)

moreover,

What's more, his output is prodigious, which is an ability that is useful. And he bounces back quickly. That is something that can only be admired.

BILLYG

(04/12/2003; 20:19:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101271)

Tokyo Nikkei

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NIKK,uu[w,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=G Has any one noticed that the Nikkei hit a new 20-year plus low on Friday? Looks to me that something will happen in the next few weeks to drive U.S. markets down hard, and that may be it. But the other hand I am normally wrong.

a nation of one

(04/12/2003; 20:22:01 MDT - Msg ID: 101272)

Good Question....

By Ag Mountain (04/12/03; 14:24:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 101254): "Why do you feel so threatened by my comments...?"

a nation of one

(04/12/2003; 20:26:50 MDT - Msg ID: 101273)

BILLYG (04/12/03; 20:19:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 101271)

But we're all normally wrong. That's just an indication that we're still trying. But really, to your point, I have been execting for some time that this second quarter might show us some fairly decisive revelations in the markets. There are also some other people who believe this. The president for example. And others who only keep their more serious notes written on their tucked-in shirttails.

21mabry

(04/12/2003; 21:04:29 MDT - Msg ID: 101274)

(No Subject)

I was talking with a family friend last week, this guy I always considered a savy investor.He got in early in tech and turned 30 grand into 350 grand.This was the first time I had talked to him in about 2 years, his portfolio has been cut down to around 100,000 and he said he did pay cash for a new car also.Needless to say he was glum, I started to talk about gold investing with him.His reply was this world is getting scary I have been thinking about getting a gun and some gold. I realized something, this guy is intelligent and has made money in investments,but he equated gold with end of the world scenarios.He did not look at it as an investment, well I turned him on to this site and some books so we will see what happens. one last thing he had no idea how to buy or invest in gold.

(04/13/2003; 00:56:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101275)

Derivative Contracts and USD as its unit of account

Derivatives are contracts that have USD as their unit of account.

Suppose that derivatives fail and we want to diagnose the situation. There are two options I can find out:

* Initially, derivatives were used to hedge against natural disasters (grain contracts). Later, they were used to hedge against man made disasters (forex and interest rates). We may conclude that, the use of derivatives should be limited to hedge against natural disasters.

OR,

* We may conclude that USD does not have enough moneyness essence in itself, and a more modern money which is in harmony with the sprit of the times should be devised and utilised. In the mean time, we maintain that the usage of interest rate and forex derivatives were natural, necessary and modern.

What is the relevance of this illustration to gold?

Well, some people have concluded that gold is not suitable as a contract unit of account due to the reason that some gold contracts failed.

Why did these gold contracts failed? This would bring us to an another question:

Suppose a contract is signed between a superpower and a simple nation. Things happen and a situation develops in which the superpower must pay some reparations due to the articles written in the contract. However, the superpower defaults. How can the contract can be enforced?

This leads us to the conclusion that, international balance of power is a prerequisite of gold standard. Otherwise, there would be no method of enforcing contracts.

contrarian

(04/13/2003; 06:49:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101276)

ge---profound musings

your posting is a profound one, and it deserves further investigation. It would be illuminating to look at the geopolitical world structure at the time of the full-fledged gold standard, before 1921 (I think?).

Nuclear weaponry seems to be the thing that brought about the superpower, and the division into two camps of the haves and have nots.

As the US falls into the classical trap dating since Roman antiquity of using military power to supplant waning economic power--it will be interesting and revealing to see how the situation plays out.

Many questions will be answered in this situation. How dependent is military power on economic power? How long a period of time can military power tyrannize without concurrent economic power? And more ominously, it the US currency is destroyed, can military power continue to predominate?

Especially if, according to classical economic tenets, the US is no longer a viable economic power--that is, no longer producing any physical GOODS (not services) that anyone wants to buy, not even the paper dollar--the one physical good (the paper dollar) that was the object of envy, admiration, and attainment, long having been degraded to Charmin.

I guess looking at the fate of the USSR could be instructive. Essentially, it became a shell of itself, and lost its superpower status. Such could be the destiny of the US. (And this portends the rise of gold.)

In this post US dollar demise world, perhaps having nuclear weapons alone won't be enough to bestow power on the world stage, since their actual use is so frowned upon--hence the country that uses the bomb will lose all credibility and respect on the world stage.

Yes, military power thus seems tremendously dependent upon economic power. And war, ultimately, of course, is won on economic terms. So these wartime adventures may ultimately collapse of their own hubris!

MusicMan

(04/13/2003; 08:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101277)

Questions from a newie

Hello all.

(1) Can I infer correctly from archives - re future oil for future gold - that the huge short paper gold and silver positions ultimately represent forward sales to oil producers? That the derivatives mountain might therefore not necessarily be as inherently unstable as most commentators assume?

(2) On silver - is a scenario feasible whereby gold and silver simply end up at parity? ANOTHER did say that oil producers are only buying gold, but the vast silver short positions and evident manipulation of Ag market seem (to me) to indicate stockpiling of future silver as well.

(3) If gold, and hence oil, are to be massively reavalued, and the US authorities know this,then isn't the aquisition of the Iraqi oilfields of considerable strategic significance?

MM

ski

(04/13/2003; 09:33:46 MDT - Msg ID: 101278)

Silver Gains versus Gold Gains .......

My continuous position here on this forum has been that silver will outperform gold on a percentage basis and therefore, at the very least, forum members should at some point (now or in the near future), have a meaningful silver position.

This real life story comes to mind that tends to be analogous to the silver/gold situation that we are now in .....

My sons, high-school wrestling team was looking forward to a great year. One of the team members was a rising superstar (gold). He had come from a family of wrestlers and had been active in wrestling since an early age. How a big senior, legitimate, high-hopes were placed on his shoulders by everyone. I attended the practices and noted that the rising superstar was in fact a good, but not a great westler. He was ALREADY in good shape, had a lot of skills and experience and was learning and progressing at an AVERAGE rate compared to the average team members. The rising superstar had EVERYONE'S attention and won a high percentage of matches. This percentage of wins, increased in direct proportion to his aveage rate of increase in skill level.

My son (silver) also joined the wrestling team as a sophomore. He had never wrestled in his life. No one in his immediate circle of friends ever had anything to do with this sport. Upon joining the team, he knew almost nothing about wrestling and to add insult to injury, he was 30 pounds overweight and more out-of-shape than the average sophomore. Compared to the other jocks on the team, he was in horrible shape. At the beginning of the season, he won about 5% of his matches. Needless to say, he was totally off everyone's radar screen. Few cheered him on and no one noticed him except for dad.

You know how this story is going to go ... don't you??

As the season progressed, the rising superstar (gold) performed exactly as expected. Due to his improved physical condition and added skills, his percentage of wins climbed at a controlled rate, which added to standing.

My son had a different season. He made a VAST improvement in his physical condition and he had muscles and strength in places that had been unknown to himself. In the process, he lost many pounds and took on a whole new look which was reflected in a much higher self esteem. What really surprised even dad, was his unbelieviable speed in mastering completely new wrestling moves. The coach would show him something and he was instantly able to internalize and utilize the new technique. By the end of the season, he was winning 70% of his matches, a TREMENDOUS IMPROVEMENT. Virtually no one had noticed his POTENTIAL. Virtually no one noticed his rapid development during the middle of the season. And few ever realized the phenomenal level of accomplishment and success by season's end.

In the world of sports, the rising superstar won because he attained an oveall higher percentage of wins over my son. BUT IN THE WORLD OF INVESTMENT, my son won because of his percentage of improvement from point A to point B. (They say that there is no such thing as perfect analogy. I have gone on record on this forum as stating that the overwhelming body of facts say that the POS will temporarily exceed the POG.)
Nonetheless...
..........................
Let's talk about silver and gold. And let me be the first to yell that one week of trading does not make a trend.

Per Bloomberg TV, over the past five trading days:
Platinum up .89%
Gold up .77%
Silver up 1.81%
.............................
Price movement of mining shares often gives a better advance picture. Last Friday spot gold plus $3 and spot silver plus one penny. Yet....

gold shares:
AEM -.93%
ABX -.65%
GG -.38%
NEM .73%
PDG -1.3%

silver shares:
CDE -.76%
SIL .76%
PAAS 1.27%
HL 1.83%
SSRI 2.50%

..................
For the whole week, most of the silver shares made significant gains (data not provided), while most of the gold shares lost ground or were unchanged. Silver clearly WON last weeks wrestling match.

Silver .... why don't you have any??

OvS

(04/13/2003; 10:43:42 MDT - Msg ID: 101279)

Sound of Music

Music Man, you are a 'sound' thinker. You don't
happen to be the 'musical' son and inheritor of
Paul Getty?
This is the first time I see you posting. Please
keep humming to make my 'searching-for-sound-in-
sights' chimes, ring in harmony.

Leigh

(04/13/2003; 11:20:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101280)

Ski

GREAT story - I'm with you! Keep posting!!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/13/2003; 12:54:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101281)

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USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/13/2003; 13:12:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101282)

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USAGOLD-CPM, Inc. has recently instituted a program to notify interested parties of breaking news, web site updates and special offers.

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TownCrier

(04/13/2003; 13:26:01 MDT - Msg ID: 101283)

MK's latest update...

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html(an excerpt)

...Will Gulf War II come to be known more for what it revealed in the relationship between the United States and Europe than the astonishingly rapid victory on that far-flung battlefield?

That prospect is likely to make for a less than friendly meeting of G-7 finance ministers this weekend. Concerns have already surfaced that the political "gulf" between nations could spill over to the economic arena.

One is tempted to ask the question: "How could it not?" Few who follow the international economic scene can escape being struck with how quickly and deeply the fissures between the United States, France, Germany and Russia widened over the last few weeks.

How will this play out for the dollar? What would be the outcome if these nations known for being some of the best friends of the dollar became some of its most implacable enemies? How much of what the United States has gained in the desert of the Middle East will be lost in the market for its equities -- particularly its debt instruments -- throughout the rest of the world?

These are not inconsequential questions, and they are sure to figure into the near-term gold price, not to speak of the future for the equities markets worldwide.

Adding to the concerns, French foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin will visit Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia this weekend, and one doubts that the meetings will be over the quality of last year's Bordeaux vintage....
---
Click the url above for access to MK's full commentary, and be sure to periodically revisit this page throughout the week for updates to the list of important links, articles, and charts.

R.

Cavan Man

(04/13/2003; 16:50:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101284)

While we're in the neighborhood....

Bush tells Syria to 'co-operate'
US President George W Bush has warned Syria against harbouring fugitives from Saddam Hussein's ousted regime in Iraq.
America, he said, expected Iraq's western neighbour to "co-operate" with the US-led coalition and he added that he believed Syria possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD)- the charge against Iraq which sparked the war there.

"We believe there are chemical weapons in Syria," the president said, speaking to press on the White House lawn.

Cavan Man

(04/13/2003; 16:52:46 MDT - Msg ID: 101285)

More (hubris?)

Bush: Syria has chemical weapons

US President George W. Bush said on Sunday that Syria has chemical weapons, and warned Damascus that it "must cooperate" with Washington as it continues its effort to overthrow the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq.

"We believe there are chemical weapons in Syria," he told journalists on the White House lawn. "Each situation will require a different response," he said in reply to reporters' questions about US allegations that Syria is aiding the Iraqi regime.

"First things first. We're here in Iraq now," Bush said, adding that "we expect cooperation" from Syria. (Albawaba.com

Cavan Man

(04/13/2003; 16:55:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101286)

Keep an eye on this.

Where is OBL anyway?The war of words between the United States and Syria continued Sunday, with President Bush and top administration officials again warning Damascus against harboring fugitives from the regime of ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

Mr. Bush told White House reporters Sunday he also believes there are chemical weapons in Syria. He did not elaborate. The President issued his first warning to Damascus Friday.

Earlier Sunday, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there is no question that some senior Iraqi leaders have fled to or through Syria. He declined to identify the fugitives or say whether the United States was prepared to take action against Syria.

TownCrier

(04/13/2003; 20:07:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101287)

Britain and the euro

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,724-646231,00.html(excerpt)
Speaking on BBC Radio, Mr Mandelson said: "I believe that he (Mr Blair) considers that Britain will lose a significant growth potential, we will miss out economically, primarily, but also politically, if we remain outside the euro indefinitely. I think his instinct will be to go for a referendum in this Parliament."
-----(see url for article)----

There is going to be a tremendous push to foster pro-euro sentiment in this event. Recent polls have shown Brits to be decidedly against joining the EMU.

R.

Black Blade

(04/13/2003; 21:59:41 MDT - Msg ID: 101288)

Gold bugs look beyond war, betting on a declining dollar

http://www.nj.com/business/ledger/index.ssf?/base/business-4/1050214373157930.xml
Snippit:

Is it time to go for the gold or has it lost its shine? "Anybody who thinks the game is over is watching too much CNBC," said John Hathaway, fund manager for the Tocqueville Gold Fund in New York, which was up 83 percent last year. "I think there was a war premium built into in the gold price when it got to a high of $390," said Brien Lundin, publisher of the Gold Newsletter, based in Jefferson, La. "But that war premium has largely been washed away, and I don't think we have much more to go on the downside."

But tempting as it may be to attribute climbing gold prices to the conflict in Iraq, many gold bugs think this isn't the most significant factor in gold's latest climb. The investment landscape is threatened by a number of storm clouds: the slipping stock market, deficit spending, and most of all, the declining dollar. "Any long-standing bull market in gold is founded on a corresponding lack of confidence in the fiat currency of the day," Lundin said.

A telling portrait of gold's performance emerges when viewed during a 200-year period, according to Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School and author of the best-selling "Stocks for the Long Run." According to his calculations, a dollar invested in the stock market from 1802 to 2001 would have grown to $599,605. A dollar invested in gold during that period would be worth -- 98 cents.

Black Blade: I have been listening to Jeremy Siegel off and on for a few years and to be blunt � he's a moron. A dollar invested in the stock market in 1802 would be ZERO! That a dollar invested in the market from 1802 to 2001 would become $599,605 (even depreciated dollars) is an absolute lie. No stock in existence at that time exists today - not even after mergers and acquisitions. Of course the dollar was relatively stable until FDR inflated the dollar after confiscation. The comparison simply does not exist. So Jeremy's contention is not only misleading but it is comparing apples to oranges. He has been telling the CNBC carnival barkers that there will be a "second half recovery" for the last four years and so far his record has been rather pathetic. But then he's a moron so I will leave it there. The stock market has gone through a long 20 year bull and now is in a long term secular bear market. I guess now we will see the how the stock market and the US dollar perform vs. gold.

Black Blade

(04/13/2003; 22:21:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101289)

For investors, gold's vision is 20/20

http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2003/04/11/rtr937308.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Global investors are climbing out of the bomb shelters on a fairly good bet the Iraq war has reached the end game. But the lesson a lot of people learned from the geopolitical script was this: Gold shouldn't have been written off as just a "barbaric relic" of the past -- never to be mentioned in the same breath with the word "investment." Indeed, Wall Street could not help but notice that gold again proved itself as a super-sensitive, forward-looking indicator. It predicted how the Gulf War would go and how long it would last. After being snubbed by investors for more than 10 years, gold surged to a six-year high above $390 an ounce in February from a low of $252 in the summer of 1999. The price now hovers at a four-month low of about $326 as the end of the war appears to be in sight. "Equity investors should pay attention to the message delivered by gold," says Richard Salsman, chief market strategist for InterMarket Forecasting Inc. "For weeks, it's been predicting a swift and decisive U.S. defeat of Saddam Hussein."

The precious metal has also been known to accurately predict the direction of the stock market. It signaled the Great Bull Market of the late 1990s as gold prices plunged by 39 percent between February 1996 and July 1999. The stock bubble burst in March 2000. On the war scoreboard, in the early 1970s gold leaped 430 percent during the disastrous Viet Nam war, rising from $35 in 1968 to a high of $185.50 by December 1974.

Underlying the war fear are deeper worries about the health of the world's biggest economy and the weaker dollar. Consumer spending, which generates two-thirds of the nation's growth, could stall and lead the economy back into recession. Americans continued to cut back on borrowing in February. The increase of 3.64 percent in consumer credit from the level of a year earlier was the slowest 12-month rise since 1993, according to the Federal Reserve. It's fair to say the stock market will remain vulnerable to more bad news. So gold may retain some of its recent luster as people continue to hedge their bets. Don't expect investors to jump back with both feet into a premium-priced U.S. stock market. Money managers are not patriotic types. They'll shift to places where their cash will be treated well.

Black Blade: It is an interesting article, however, the article neglects to point out that the gold price tumbled in 1996 as the dollar strengthened and began to rise long before Gold War II on a weakening dollar. The dollar is still under pressured and well overvalued. The stock market is in the early stages of a secular bear market and the dollar will respond along with the weaker equities markets that reflect deteriorating economic conditions after all. That makes gold a good bet over the next several years.

Belgian

(04/14/2003; 01:11:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101290)

@Towncrier

Sir, at laruchepub.com, you can find an interesting, little, thesis on the US_Blair, connection (liaison).
See article : " Why the Democratic party failed to function in this crisis". Sir Evelyn de Rothschild is a remarkable ( golden-?) go-between, here !?

And indeed, the UK and "at present", T. Blair, is closely watched by his own party and "old" Europe. Has T.Blair the intention of building an Atlantic (renewed) bridge between US and Euroland...or has it already become impossible with Blair as leader ? EMU, with or without, a radical choice from the UK. Yes, this would make a tremendous difference for how the euro and dollar would evolve.

Blair's future depends solely on the US's action(s) in the M.E. ! The Iraq aftermath, Israel solution, another invasion ? In other words...will Pax Americana go that classical "one step" too far (in the ME) and leave the UK no other choice as to disconnect and join EMU !? UK in EMU would enhance the probability of Norway joining and a possible attempt for Northsea oil for euro, as a starter/booster. (euro-enhancement) ?

Euroland (D.Villepin) is in contact with some Iraqi-future government factions. A "new" Iraq for Iraqis !!! In other words..."WHO" will own Iraq's oil reserves !? And for wich currency will it be sold ? That's the coming "real" war(s). The only governmental building that remained completely intact in Bagdad, was...the Ministry of Oil.

Let us not forget that Turkey, the Kurds and Israel, want their share of the oil-bonanza. France, Germany and Russia have supported the 12 year oil-embargo and consequently the postponement of debt-repayment...
It seems very clear to me that the Iraqis want to govern their country AND oilreserves (autonomously) by themselves with the least outside involvement, possible. The taliban (Afghanistan) still hold their poppy plantations (comparaison)!

Oil >>> dollar or euro >>> Gold, framed within a detoriating economical/geopolitical picture !

RobotGuy

(04/14/2003; 08:30:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101291)

It's still there

Many seemed to believe that all of the tumult the market suffers would disappear pending the positive outcome in Iraq. Unfortunately war today is not like war of yesteryear. Attacks are not executed in similar fashion, and the equipment used is more elaborate. We do not convert our countries into complete war-minded efforts as we have in the past. Before the war in Iraq began there were many opinions of what was going to transpire and as usual those with extreme thinking patterns perveyed the worst possible scenarios. Fortunately to this point there hasn't been overwhelming devastation to humanity, and for the most part Iraqis are realizing a lifestyle they have dreamed of for years. Now the focus is returning to the state of the North-American economy, and the realization that the war really didn't give a huge economical boost to it. In fact, it's becoming evident that there will more likely be a negativie effect on the economy as a result of the war. IMHO the economy is about ready to realize it's trend, and sink to the point where all of the artificial wealth has been consumed and the majority of the b*llsh*t has been exposed.

I have seen evidence over the course of the last few weeks that would suggest that we are indeed heading for another tiny run up in the POG followed by a long slow upward trend. Of couse you must remember, I am merely a RobotGuy with limited focus on the big picture. I am actually shocked to see how dead it is in this forum, this is the only thing that would make me wonder if my intuition was flawed. When I originally came into this forum POG was sitting at roughly US$254 and the posts were flying. This was almost directly before the inevitable run up in POG. I don't think US$425 (same numbers different arrangement)is too far away, but where have all the golbugs gone?

I know I've taken a break from posting anything in this forum, but I have something to share with you all. Often i would come in here and read the posts, and then create a post of my own, but after serious consideration I would delete my post and remain a lurker. RobotGuy isn't as versed and experienced as most of the seasoned posters in this forum, and I feel my posts are merely clutter amidst finely written works of art.

I will post this message with questios of the validity of it's content, however I am merely contributing my own sentiment and sometimes I feel this is of some value to those who are interested in reading what others might feel.

Cheers to all of the diehard goldbugs!

Your friendly neighborhood RobotGuy.

contrarian

(04/14/2003; 08:42:12 MDT - Msg ID: 101292)

Black Blade you're right

Yes, Black Blade--you're on the money...regarding yesterday's post about moronic Jeremy Siegel. If you look to the Archives from 2/27/2003, you'll find a hearty discussion (and dissing) of his contention how a dollar invested in 1802 would have grown to by 2001:

Stocks he claim would have grown to an inflation-adjusted figure of $599,605, while gold would be worth $.98 adjusted for inflation.

His thoughts were also featured in February on the Motley Fool, aptly named.

His contention is an abstract construct, not a real world scenario, based on looking backwards, as if you knew exactly which stocks to hop on and hop off of, as they came into existence and then departed, companies being evanescent things that usually don't last 200 years.

It's based on an ideal path, not a real-world one. As life unfortunately only happens in the present, an iseal path is accessible only to those rare souls who can accurately predict the future. I don't know of anyone who fits this category.

A more realistic thing would be, if you could, to survey all the stockholders in the last 200 years, and calculate the average lifetime returns on the stocks they held. And then adjust it for inflation. Now that would be an interesting figure! And I doubt it would be $599,605!

Cometose

(04/14/2003; 08:49:57 MDT - Msg ID: 101293)

Silver

8:40am Silver up 3.7
Perhaps the 4 horsemen of silver beginning to initiate the fires of a self fullfilling prophecy......in a silver move
Any firemen around ? would like to hear something on the
point of a fire (heat) at which combustions happens .....
I believe this happens in financial markets.... because of emotions .... and herd mentality....
HERD EM UP !!!!! and HIGH OH SILVER!!!!

slingshot

(04/14/2003; 08:55:16 MDT - Msg ID: 101294)

RobotGuy Msg#101291

Long time between posts.Calm before the storm. Nothing New under the sun. Waiting for the sacrificial lamb.

Knowing what we know now about gold, could you ride the bull back down to $254.00?

Slingshot-------------<>

Eleanor of Aquitaine

(04/14/2003; 09:07:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101295)

Robot Guy

The POG is now substantially below the price at which I bought, so I'm quiet. If (when?) it gets back up to the POG at which I bought and God willing, surpasses it, I'll be much more talkative. Right now, I'm scared that I made a huge huge mistake with my investment.

a nation of one

(04/14/2003; 09:11:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101296)

To RobotGuy (4/14/03; 08:30:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 101291)

I hope the next time you write a post and think about withholding it, that you will go ahead and post it. I always read them and learn from them. The artsy stuff doesn't always matter, but substance does, and your posts have plenty.

CoBra(too)

(04/14/2003; 09:12:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101297)

G7 Meeting and John Snow

Even as the G7 Meeting wound up as a now characteristically
Non-Event, Mr. Snow greeted the smallest possible common denominator as a major advance. He also said something like - the world economy has escaped further deterioration as fast as never before - which sounded like almost unscathed.

Not so fast Mr. Snow; There was absolutely something missing in this statement - even if the uncertainty of Iraq may quickly fade into history - the markets did not respond with any kind of jubilation. Or did they? Nor did the other G6 see it your way. Neither the UN, nor the G6 are very happy with spending their scarce funds on the rebuilding of Iraq - in particular as US companies will reserve the juciest part of re-building. So bring in the IMF and World Bank to do the dirty job of cleaning up after the shock and awe.

OK, fair enough! If you've had to go it (almost) alone - why not mop it up alone as well, as the rest of the globe holds its breath for the US producing the proverbial smoking gun. If it can't be found there it may be somewhere - else that is - as Syria, Iran etc. are zooming into plain view. Or was it for the control of ME Oil, or the danger of losing some $-seignorage to the � (euro), or screening the real economic and monetary problems - and the enormous debt problems of the US? Who knows, though I would strongly recommend reading Porter Stansbury's essay "Generation Debt Bomb" over the Daily Reckoning site today.

Pulling out the IMF and WB of the US Hat of mirages in order to scare G6 into paying up for the aftermath of war seems as close to the most dangerous threat as ever. I fear a cornered rat effect - and maybe a re-run of an arms race of the unwilling. To requote GWB - Who is not with us is against us - may turn out to be the most unfortunate words ever spoken by a US President!

In the meantime the economy is still not recovering, the debt situation is totally out of control and the rest of world is straddled with far too many ir-redeemable fiat $, while viewing a totally overstretched US in all and every sense. And finally, Patriot Act II is shaping into a form of serfdom never to have hit the USA since 1776.

If there ever was a more compelling time to private gold ownership ... I personally can't fathom one. And I've been around for some time ... Regards and sorry for ranting - cb2

PS: Tks MK for your efforts again to keep us updated on developments - excellent mix.

slingshot

(04/14/2003; 09:29:12 MDT - Msg ID: 101298)

(No Subject)

O.K. Gold under $500.00 is still considered to be a bargain. That is what I am reading. So considering gold is cheap, if the price falls even to $254, than this is what we want so we can accumulate more of the PIE. If this were to happen I doubt there would be any gold left to snap up.
Just a matter of ones comfort zone.

Be nice to the Goldbugs on the way down, for you meet the same Goldbugs on the way up.

Slingshot---------------------- <>

Zhisheng

(04/14/2003; 09:34:45 MDT - Msg ID: 101299)

Gold Today

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=sRelative to Friday's close, gold is down and the dollar is down.

Unnatural?

Buena Fe

(04/14/2003; 09:38:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101300)

the REAL war... slowly being made public

http://www.msnbc.com/news/888057.asp?0cv=CB10&cp1=1Bush issues new warning to Syria

President says Iraqi neighbor �needs to cooperate� with U.S.

...........
AT WAR WITH THE WORLD?
Answering a question from a conference participant, Putin said that 80 percent of the world fell short of Western standards of democracy. "Do we go to war with all of them?" he asked.
Putin, Chirac and Schroeder were the war's most vocal opponents. Now, their insistence on a political role for the United Nations could further strain their relations with Washington. ................
........NOT THE 51ST STATE
"Iraq is not the 51st state of America," Seleznyov said. "All debt issues will be resolved only with the lawful government of Iraq."
Wolfowitz, one of the main advocates of the campaign to overthrow Saddam, also said that France would have to "pay some consequences" for its opposition to the U.S. invasion, especially for opposing NATO assistance to Turkey.
"I agree the French have behaved in ways ... that have been very damaging to NATO. I think France is going to pay some consequences, not just with us but with our countries who view it that way, but I don't think we want to make the Iraqi people the victims of that particular quarrel," he said...........
___________________________________________________________

a new empire is just beginning to flex its muscle, us in the cross hairs, gold always wins when political strife reachs such a pitch.

i choose no sides, both are fallible, just protecting my family and friends

Clink!

(04/14/2003; 09:38:54 MDT - Msg ID: 101301)

re Siegel

I think that it is clear that anyone who states a six-digit SWAG to the last digit must be trying to hide a lack of substance by a supposed front of exactitude. But he's not the only one - I cringe when I hear over-exact target prices, e.g. gold could top $407.25 before year end. Yeah, right !!

C!

a nation of one

(04/14/2003; 09:41:03 MDT - Msg ID: 101302)

The thing itself does not lack luster.

In order to buy low and sell high, it is usually necessary to buy when no one else is buying, and to sell when nobody else is selling. I think right now most people really don't know what to do about gold. It's down from where it was. It's up from where it was before that. It tried to go to 400 and couldn't do it. Actually, that was overheated, maybe because of a lot of short covering, the peak of it off market, and therefore -for most holders of gold- artificial. In real terms most people could not have bought or sold at 389, so in what sense was that a real price? After that it fell apart and came down. What is it doing down here in the 320s? Causing a lot of boredom. Are people waiting to see what will happen next? I am. From what I have been able to gather, gold buyers are waiting till they are sure. In my view, this gives gold sellers all the time to do everything they can to bring the price low. There have been plenty of buyers stepping in and out all the way to here from 380. First it stopped falling at around 350. Then it slowed in the 330s. Now, in the 320s, the majority of buyers are apparently still waiting. Time will tell. As events unfold, market manifestations will become clearer. Most of the public have been successfully deluded by news fabricators. These unfortunate people have no idea what reality is. They cannot be expected to jump in and buy gold unless the people who pull their strings pull their strings. It is a question of when these strings will be pulled. And the answer to that is, the strings will be pulled no sooner, and no later, than that time at which gold's move can be further maximized for the benefit of those who determine the string pullers' instructions. No, I am not a conspiracy nut. But I do know how they work. I have been involved with some of them myself, and their method is to wait for the right time, then jiggle the strings, catch the flying dollars, and stuff the money into their own pockets. The lower they can drive it, the more money they will make. The time will probably come, but not yet.

slingshot

(04/14/2003; 10:08:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101303)

Waiting

Goldbugs are always waiting for something. I do not know which is worse. Waiting for something to happen,or watching the Lemmings run to and through.
Slingshot---------<>

silvercollector

(04/14/2003; 10:34:23 MDT - Msg ID: 101304)

coBra(too)

"the globe holds its breath for the US producing the proverbial smoking gun."

Good quote.....and I heard this the other day..........

"..by hook or by crook the US will find the WMD in Iraq..."

John Ing was on the tube an hour ago, he predicts POG at $510 by year end. I am currently out of the PM market awaiting the WMD fiasco. I will join John's party after the 'discovery'.

mikal

(04/14/2003; 10:40:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101305)

@Eleanor

Re: "I fear" It is healthy to feel the potential of failure, after all, mistakes are our greatest teacher and nothing good comes without work.
Congratulations for buying and holding on basic principle and (un)common economic sense, and values few yet recognize.
IMHO, the PM's bull shifts slowly in her mother's womb before she emerges with great size.

slingshot

(04/14/2003; 10:43:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101306)

Waiting again.

See, I told you so. Silvercollector is waiting for the WMD fiasco. Me? I'm waiting for a top limit in the comex and thereafter a few days of $50.00 swings to get things going.

Shake, Rattle and Roll.
Slingshot------------------<>

Mr Gresham

(04/14/2003; 11:08:37 MDT - Msg ID: 101307)

RobotGuy & Eleanor of A.

Good to see your posts, reflecting the thoughts of many. Sometimes the difference between hitting "Submit" and Cancel is just a breeze blowing freshly through a window. Me, too; me, too.

It really doesn't feel "fair" for us little dogs to have to speculate on the steps of Giants, trying to decipher footprints we find here or there, in order to attempt to salvage our financial futures. I guess it's always been this way, "where ignorant armies clash by night."

But all the other promises are more in question now than ever. People are admitting this, and when a herd turns...

"And we are here as on a darkling plain
Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight,
Where ignorant armies clash by night."
-- Matthew Arnold, Dover Beach

Trurl

(04/14/2003; 11:16:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101308)

So what's wrong with this picture???

I see that a numismatic dealer is selling a 1923 Peace dollar in uncirculated condition for $13. Or you can buy an uncirculated 1923 Silver certificate -- for $99.

This reminds me of the old TV game show Family Feud. There you didn't guess the right answer, you had to predict the answer most other people guessed.

I guess that is how you make money in Numismatics...
I guess the demand is in things people understand...

RobotGuy

(04/14/2003; 11:18:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101309)

Thank-you Slingshot, Eleanor of Aquitaine, and A Nation Of One

To my friend Slingshot I would like to say that I will ride the bull or bear for the length of my existance. I had a passion for PM's as a child, and it has never left me. To me gold accumulation is similar to owning land,.. there's only so much of either, and you never really want to get rid of it. The only reason I like to monitor the POG is that of foolishness and selfishness. I am waiting for the rest of humanity to wake up and realize how very little of it there is, and scramble like madmen to get their piece. A kind of awakening I suppose.

Eleanor of Aquitaine, I don't believe I have had the pleasure. I am sure that the many posters in this forum have extended their welcome, as so do I. If your passion for gold is that for reason of investment have no fear. There are more individuals advocating gold now than I've ever seen in my entire life, and we all know how effective advertising is. Even if one percent of all individuals in North America exercised a productive interest in gold ownership it would make an overwhelming difference in the PM market,... It's happening.

A Nation Of One,.. All I could say is that you have given me a great compliment and thank-you.

Cheers!

RobotGuy.

RobotGuy

(04/14/2003; 11:22:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101310)

Mr. Gresham

You have always been very kind Sir. Good to see you out!

Cheers!

RobotGuy.

JemeJordan

(04/14/2003; 11:27:16 MDT - Msg ID: 101311)

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/Forget Bushes Operation Iraqi Freedom (to secure their oil fields before the rest of the world does), Corporate earnings reports from (XYZCooked Books Inc) and the Bush dividend (Tax plan giveaway)

The real story is the US Nation Debt time Bomb, US Dollar Deflation or Inflation, Either way the Dollar is going BUST in our life time.

Tick
Tick
Tick

slingshot

(04/14/2003; 11:36:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101312)

Getting rid of the FEAR

Fear is a great survival attribute, but it should not control your life. First I want you to know I am in this Gold Game for the Long Haul. Short Comments. Got in at $325.00 and rode it down to $254 and back on up. Purchased gold on the downside and upside. Guess I broke some investment rules. Gold hung around $350.00 and re-evaluated my GOLDEN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY and Purchased some more. Then Gold go up to $380.00. I stop and hold and what happens? Gold reverses. Here it comes, $364.00 Brought some. Further $350.00 Brought some. Now at $321.00 I thought it would still go further south. Held on to FIAT. Waiting for Gold to go into the $200.00-$300.00 range. Waiting for gold to shift from weak hands to strong hands at a lower price. My fear is not the POG but the availability to purchase.
Can you imagine what I was thinking each time I checked the POG ;o) There's that word again.

Smile everyone.
Slingshot---------------<>

slingshot

(04/14/2003; 11:55:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101313)

Trurl , RobotGuy

Trurl, Have seen that price for Peace Dollars for extra-fine to About uncir.Uncir. Going about $15.00 and higher if slabed.
RobotGuy, Yeah, only so much of it. :0)

Slingshot-----------------<>

Operative

(04/14/2003; 12:15:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101314)

The Rewriting Of The Military Textbooks

An old rule of thumb used to calculate expected losses of a military action was 3:1. The invading forces should expect to lose 3 men to every 1 of the defending forces. Today, it is I who is in shock & awe. The US has just liberated, set free, the people of Iraq with less than 200 (closer to 100) soldiers lost. Maybe some military history buffs can answer a question? Has there ever been an entire country ever "liberated" in an action of war where the invading forces suffered less than 200 lost? Perhaps the people of Syria will be the next to be given thier "freedom". I will have to check my calender, but I think maybe I will finally "free" Cuba by myself this weekend.

Black Blade, your famous line of "interesting times" has got to be the understatment of the new millieum.

JemeJordan

(04/14/2003; 12:27:20 MDT - Msg ID: 101315)

The Rewriting Of The Military Textbooks

Yes and how about that North Korean about US policy face last week, maybe they were also afraid your Neighbor were going to invade!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/14/2003; 12:57:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101316)

Great Money Giveaway obscures Strong Dollar Policy

Gold Today!

Because the phrase "strong dollar policy" is sounding anemic.

While the Treasury Department's half-hearted rhetoric about a "strong dollar" sounds ever less like policy and ever more like pabulum for the media, the FOMC target rate (at 1.25%) by the Federal Reserve (with a bank lifeline discount rate at 0.75%) tells the score loud and clear. In recent Congressional testimony Chairman Greenspan said that there is no "meaningful limit" to the Fed's power to inject money into the economy. And consider the dollar's legacy position as a reserve asset currently being held throughout the world. These are the things that sudden financial crisis and hyperinflations are made of.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.
How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

CoBra(too)

(04/14/2003; 12:57:25 MDT - Msg ID: 101317)

@ Mr. Gresham

Your 101307 has touched a nerve with me.

Unfortunately, I usually think after (of pressing -submit-)the fact and have my real doubts.
On the other hand I probably would never have and never would post(ed), if I'd go back with a tooth comb.

As usual, I detect more and more omissions of what I would and have should expressed - though my mind is usually front running my typing skills.

That said, I still feel that something more ominous is ng on and the real menace to us, our liberty and more important the future of the next generations is compromised by it.

Being a grandpa of 2 baby girls, I fear for their future as I fear for the future of my own grown up kids. As the social security is breaking apart in most of the Western Nations - even I may be victim to this dilemma -, where social unrest is flaring up again.

Considering the ongoing 401K and structured company pension plans everywhere, underfunded, though paid up over years by the employed.- A disaster of mega uphieval is in the cards.
The further unfunded medicare-, aid, wellfare is going to be the next victim of this hedonic state of government affairs. And all of that coming atop of an incredibly optimistic forecast of a government budget surplus - turned to the extreme opposite - as was to be expected after the Clinton/Rubin brain washing of all of us.

Personally, I do feel we're close to an endgame. The Fiat monetary system based on hedonic economic performance has been found out as a farce - as productivity gains are nothing more than fewer employed working their asses off in order not to join the bread lines - and the rest is anecdotal - not to say Greenspin!

Now - before going into total Nirvana - as my rants usually go - MR. G. please, I beg you tell me what to do - except buying gold - not as hedge for my portfolio, which already is in gold and its proxies - No, my query is, what can we do to rectify the burden our generation has already put on to future generations?

Seems to me the generational contract has been breached by us to the detriment of our successors.

This may not be only a financial burden, as we've really raped everything the world has to offer. Resources, down to arable land, water and even the air we breathe. Kind'a neat inheritance we'll leave to our kids.

Even leaving some real property (aka. Ari) like gold won't make up for our generation's sins and misdeeds.

What you sow, you'll reap - will we deserve any better!?

Not re-reading again - though with some temerity - cb2

CoBra(too)

(04/14/2003; 13:13:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101318)

OK - from here on I'll edit myself... Sorry -

Still, as an afterthought or is it omission - our generation is leaving the future world without a compass.

Monetarily without the constraints of a gold backing!
and what's more - we've broke the nucleus of civilization - the family! ... Thank you for listening - cb2

TownCrier

(04/14/2003; 13:31:40 MDT - Msg ID: 101319)

Speaking of "no 'meaningful limit' to the Fed's power to inject money"...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030414/markets_fed_openmarket_2.htmlThe Federal Reserve today added $6.922 billion dollars to the banking system.

$5.5 billion of this were temporary reserves added through three-day repurchase agreements in open market operations.

The balance was a "permanent" addition through an outright purcahse by the Fed of Treasury coupons. This is already the second time (that I'm aware of) in seven days that the Federal Reserve has engaged in the outright purchase of Treasuries to add permanent cash to the nation's banking system.

Where the stealthy "tax" of inflation lurks and looms ever larger, put yourself in a "tax free zone" with a diversification out of weakening dollars and into hard assets such as gold. Call Centennial for assistance with your exchange.

R.

a nation of one

(04/14/2003; 13:34:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101320)

. . .

The natural value of everything is zero. The only reason things have value is because humans exist and hold them dearly to some extent. For the value of a Porche to go to zero, nobody has to do anything, or, said better, it requires no action. For its price to go up, somebody has to do something. If nobody does anthing there is no action. If there is no action, it is the same as if there were no people. If there are no people, a Porche has no value. Unless desired by aliens. But we're talking about 'people' here. As long as everybody does nothing, gold will continue to be plundered. Or, if some people are interested, maybe it will just stay where it is. But for gold to go up, somebody has to do something. To be effective, action has got to be determined. People are waiting to commit. The signs are in. Those who have knowledge understand that gold is below where it should be, that the situation is significantly controlled, manipulated, managed, speculatively deployed, that news events can be created which will bring about ostensibly desireable market events, and that these will be temporary, and that when the cows come home, the chickens will start flying. In other words, gold will go up. But it will be because people will be doing what is necessary to cause it. They could take such action now, but they are afraid. Is the bottom going to fall out? Is the bottom going to hold? Are these the kind of questions men ask about their lawns? Do they ask, "Is the grass going to be cut?" Or, "Is there going to be enough gas in the mower?" No. They go out and get gas. They put it into their mower. They go outside and cut the stuff. Here we are. Men and women are saying, "Is gold going to go up?" When they have already the wherewithal to make it go up, if they will do it. I am doing my part. I am writing you these little love notes. I am holding on to my gold. And I am holding on to my contracts. I will continue to do so. I am prepared to lose every cent. I will answer every margin call all the way to zero, because that is what is needed to really be a strong hand. Maybe I will be wiped out. I don't know. But if I am, I will always know that I did what I knew was needed, to make possible the best for myself. Sure, maybe it won't happen. But I have created the possibility. And it can't happen unless I do. That can never be changed. And in the case that I lose everything, even centuries from now, if someone asks me if I was wiped out, I would be able to tell them, "Yes I was. But you know what? The money I would have made would have been gone by now, but knowing that I did what was necessary to make the best possible will always be with me." That has no price. And I know from personal experience that if you make the best possible, the best will happen enough to make it more than worthwhile. And since I will always be human, that will always have value. Can't spend it. Can't be stolen. This life is temporary. Short. It makes no sense to live it in any way but that which makes possible the best. I can see that this does. Therefore I do it. Please tell me I am insane. That will assure me that I am way ahead of you in this.

Gonlyold

(04/14/2003; 14:00:12 MDT - Msg ID: 101321)

Helping the Future of Our Posterity

CoBra(Too), I'd like to offer a suggestion which has been posted on this site many times and which cannot be understated: Don't borrow money and don't use credit. If you want to put away something for your grandchildren, put away a debt free inheritance. I think you mentioned that you're prepared to satisfy a margin call. I wish to be kind, but supporting the banks is akin to supporting oppression. I avoid them, the banks, like the plague. I also avoid using credit when using rental cars and motels. Admittedly it's not always easy and certainly not convenient. But I feel that I am doing my part to help this country prosper. I don't wish to even attempt to have you run your life like mine, but I would value you as an asset to our plight if you did stay away from the banks. Have gold - good. Have debt - bad.

Gonlyold

(04/14/2003; 14:02:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101322)

Correction

Sorry, I just noticed that it was A Nation of One who spoke of margin calls, not CoBra (too). My apologies.

Operative

(04/14/2003; 14:26:46 MDT - Msg ID: 101323)

@ Nation of One & Gonlyold

An encouraging word to fight the good fight.

"If we stayed at home and did nothing, doom would find us anyway, sooner or later."

-Treebeard, Book III, Chapter 4
The Lord of The Rings

TownCrier

(04/14/2003; 14:52:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101324)

Treasury pabulum

http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1050347154nN14202023&tit=US%20Treasury%20chief%20Snow%20backs%20strong%20dollar&type=internazionali&ling=ENApril 14 (Reuters) -
"My predecessors and I have had a consistent response to all dollar questions that reflects our belief in a strong dollar and that a strong dollar is in the best interest of the United States," [U.S. Treasury Secretary John] Snow said after a speech in Indianapolis.

-----(from url)------

It is easy to mouth these words, and in fact, it would be disastrous not to. For example, Nixon officials reaffirmed their commitment to the gold convertibility of the dollar for gold at $35 per ounce right up until the time it was suddenly suspended without warning, Sunday August 15th, 1971.

R.

R Powell

(04/14/2003; 15:02:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101325)

Silver news or technical trading?

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm I've just returned home but, even without searching the news, I'll guess that no news of any consequence concerning silver was forthcoming today. So, the news is that the POS diverged from gold today and will be explained as fund positioning or short covering or some such little understood phenomenon. The link above goes to the COT as of 4/8/03 at which time both the commercial and big specs were short. The so-called small specs were about 20,000 contracts long. I doubt that these positions are for sale until POS appreciates appreciably from current levels. If this guess is correct, then which of the big players is buying or, which is selling? Some say that the big commercials rarely lose but they were 20,000 contracts short as of 4/8/03 and POS has not fallen since then so... should we reason that they are adding to their shorts and the big specs are buying? Should we also assume that this portents that POS will soon decline so that the commercials can once again buy back their shorts at a lower (profitable) price? Myself, I'm not convinced that the commercials profit much more than the big specs, I'd guess that the big specs (non commercials) are doing the buying .... this Friday's COT will help solve the mystery for whatever it's worth. The unusual to be noted, perhaps, is that the small long positions did not flinch during the last downturn. That is why I don't believe they are now selling. Diehard silver believers??

RobotGuy-- post away, I always enjoy your words.

CoBra(too)-- I once discussed the possible end of the current fiat monetary system with a local bank president. He did not disagree that the whole system could implode but he was not shocked or concerned at all. He simply stated that whatever occured would be washed out (Resolution Trust type action) and that the game would start anew. He has no fear and no remorse at passing on any monetary problems (debt) to the next generation. Then again, I'll bet he also owns no gold. When making a final tally of what we're passing on to the next generation, please also include all the positive advances of our time. Before he died, I once asked of my father what he considered to be the best improvement to mankind that occured during his generation. Without missing a heartbeat, he replied, "indoor plumbing". "Consider", he said, "having the flu before the advent of antibiotics, and having to run to the outhouse in the middle of winter." I didn't disagree with him.

Schrolling down on the linked page will also give gold's COT numbers if I've typed the link correctly.
Rich

Mr Gresham

(04/14/2003; 15:08:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101326)

CoBra(too)

Actually, I was going to include you in that "good to hear from you" note, because you seemed back to your old adventure-to-read self. But I wanted to say some more, so I waited. And, as usual, with waiting, nothing then happened. (Each time I go "Clink, clink", it's a time I didn't just wait, and I kind of amaze myself at actually having taken an action, rather than over-analyzing...)

As for the younger generations, I agree with your thoughts (which I did not have time to read carefully) but I think they'll have a way to equalize it all. After all, they have the one "commodity" we are soon to find in short supply: Time. When I think that my daughter has maybe 9 decades more in which to wend her way through this world, while mine are 3 or 4, I don't feel so guilty.

As the retirement plans melt down, I think we'll be finding ways to remind them of their filial obligations to feed us. And as I posted recently, having a big empty house to invite the succeeding generations to come live in, may be one of our small salvations. Til later, friend.

(04/14/2003; 15:10:07 MDT - Msg ID: 101327)

The Iraq Debt Bomb

There is a great deal more to this Iraq debt situation than meets the eye. Time magazine published an article a few hours ago -- titled the Iraq Debt Bomb -- in which they referred to the Iraqi $285 billion debt as "titanic." Beyond the direct debt, Iraq has a $300 billion reparations bill due Kuwait. Like the decapitation attack that came suddenly out of the Iraqi night, the enormity of the problem has blind-sided the international economy. This is a complicated problem.

Paul Wolfowitz, the Defense Department neo-con war hawk, called over the weekend for Russia, Germany, France and various Arab nations to forgive Iraq's debts -- in toto. One wonders if he would be so understanding, forthcoming or forgiving if the shoe were on the other foot. In other words, would the United States be willing to forgive Argentina, Brazil or Mexico's debts under similar circumstances -- debts primarily owed to US international banks.

It seems that the Iraq debt situation was a prime item on the agenda when Russia, Germany and France met in St. Petersburg last week. Reuters characterized the German and French response as "cool" to the notion of forgiving the debt. This is what Putin had to say: "This is what happened: someone did the shooting, someone did the looting and someone must pay for the fun. On the whole, the proposal [on writing off the debt] is clear and has the right to exist. We would not object to this issue being put on the G8 agenda in Evian." I would classify those remarks as "pointed." Putin has since tied the debt question to the reconstruction business in Iraq -- something in which he would like to see Russian companies participate. No doubt, Germany and France are similarly disposed.

This raises an interesting question:

Since Iraq is a protectorate of the United States for the interim, will the American people become responsible for the Iraqi debt? Time magazine seems to think they are. In an article published a few hours ago on the internet, the magazine concludes that ". . .at least initially, U.S. officials are planning to make all decisions about Iraq's economy, with help from local advisers. If that doesn't change, debt relief may be a hard sell with the Europeans � and U.S. taxpayers will end up paying the price."

One can see why Wolfowitz might like The St. Petersburg Group bite the bullet on this. What this would translate to on this side of the Atlantic is another bailout -- pure and simple. And that on top of the $80 billion war bill, plus the cost of reconstruction. This could get out of hand in a hurry. Needless to say, since no one wants to talk about raising taxes in this less than stellar economy, it seems that much of the debt, war reparations and war cost will be "Bernanke'd" out of existence. That is to say, further destruction in the dollar's purchasing power might just be a few key strokes away.

At the moment, after all the hullabaloo about Iraq's oil (the second largest Gulf producer, etc.), we are talking about roughly $15 billion in oil revenue annually -- and that, lest we forget, comes with our old pal, the UN's, approval Let's do the math: With $285 billion in debts, $300 billion in war reparations, $80 billion in war costs and (let's be kind) $100 billion in reconstruction costs, Iraq will have paid it all back in 51 years, and that's assuming they do not care to take any profits from that revenue to be plowed into the Iraqi economy.

One is reminded of Germany right after World War I -- a similarly intractable debt situation which led to the nightmare German inflation and then the Hitler regime. As an aside, going back to pre World War I history, it too was characterized by new and far-reaching alliances that pulled one nation after another over the cliff in 1914.

One can see one of four possible outcomes:

First, the St. Petersburg group (and moderate Arab states) bite(s) the bullet in which case you face the prospect of cascading debt defaults through the international banking system (particularly with respect to Russia). Who knows what else is out there besides Russia.

Second, they defer leaving the United States to inflate its way out of the proxy debt problem (like it always does), but then you have the problem of dollar value and acceptability around the world.

Third, we go "debt for oil." St. Petersburgh Iraq debt holdings for Iraq/US oil.

Fourth, a deal is made on reconstruction and I'm not talking about just the infrastructure.

I can say one thing for certain. The St. Petersburg group is unlikely to roll over on this one. Not after everything that has happened over the last few weeks. And I can say too that is unlikely that the United States will roll over either. So where does that put the world economy?

As I say, there's a lot more to this than meets the eye. You can be sure, it will be an interesting G-8 meeting in Evian next month.

- - - -

Gold remains the one primary portfolio asset which is not someone else's liability.

- - - - -

segel_flieger

(04/14/2003; 15:16:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101328)

Re: the REAL war... slowly being made public

http://www.onlinejournal.com/11-14-02_Prestage-2.pdfBuena Fe writes;
>Bush issues new warning to Syria
>
>President says Iraqi neighbor 'needs to cooperate' with U.S.

It's been mentioned here before, but it won't hurt to mention it again. One of the major fundamentals that will affect the value of the US$ relative to other foreign currencies is the "Project for a New American Century". If you haven't heard of it, take the time to educate yourself and your friends about it. You can find all kinds of information with a simple Google search, I like the above article because it also provides links to references.

Given that many countries want to devalue their currency relative to the US$ to encourage exports to the US, this slugfest of competitive devaluations has important long term consequences for gold.

CoBra(too)

(04/14/2003; 15:18:21 MDT - Msg ID: 101329)

Hi - Rich - Remember I'm an Austrian -

... And I was not referring to the Australian type of 'head' - when two consigns gave up on cleaning the same ...

... So we stand aloof
they can't s-#&t on the roof
the only place clean
in our latrine!?!

Silver may be another cleansing factor! - Love Tiffany ... Too - cb2

CoBra(too)

(04/14/2003; 15:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101330)

Debts Owed ...

... Un-redeemable - so choose your preferred means of efault.

It's kind of pathetic to see a formerly free society being taking over by scavengers of the greatest constitution ever to have existed. As I still feel close to so many great 'merican friends, looted by their own (though elected government), I feel really saddened by the hedonic mis-reporting of the so called free press.

And in the end I wouldn't wonder if the last vestiges of free reporting, as experienced on this more than valuable site - just might be un-avaible at some time in the future.

At that stage we might conceive George Orwell's "1984" as reality. I already reckon it'll happen in due course.

MK, thanks for the message - though debts owed to international US Banks (and some others) - one might add via IMF and World Bank solutions - god forbid - and one might further add ... why the the intermission (uh, oh, if that's the political correct word)
... can't be greenmail? No, Never - ever!!!

Otherwise, or likewise I totally agree with you.
(Seems my spelling in some former capitals are obsolete now-a-days; Please forgive me as I'm a retro-con) ... cb2

PS: Mr. G - always appreciate your input - No stress, friend!

21mabry

(04/14/2003; 16:19:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101331)

Iraqi debt

MK,about 8 days ago I watched an interview discussing iraqs debt,he gave the 300 billion figure.He also stated we need to get Iraq to turn a profit.I wonder who the profit wiil go to. 21

TownCrier

(04/14/2003; 16:34:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101332)

Weekly WGC gold market review

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.html(excerpt)
The past week has seen gold improve from its low last Monday of just over $318/ounce to trade up towards $329/ounce by the end of the week, before failing at the overhead resistance.

The obliteration of the "war premium" among speculative players has now given way to tentative improvements in the price as the oversold position has been unwound, and physical investors have continued to feature as buyers.

----(see url for commentary)----

CoBra(too)

(04/14/2003; 16:37:17 MDT - Msg ID: 101333)

MK- G8 Meeting in Evian -

... Again a repulsive pick - the # 2 after Perrier and other freedom fries synonym!

Can't believe the world travelled all this way to just fall back to meaningless hysterics.

Pick up your barbarous relic by the gram, ounce, pound, kilo and bars and close out the noise - cb2

Operative

(04/14/2003; 17:01:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101334)

@ MK Re: Iraq Debt Bomb

Still, all the debts owed by the entire country of Iraq seem to pale in comparison when you consider that just one US Bank has in excess of 20 Trillion in derivatives. Imagine that, JPM stands to lose more than an entire country. HMMM...wonder if JPM has the final holding on the Iraq Debt?
Or perhaps part of the reconstruction plans for Iraq include an Internal Revenue Service to collect huge taxes from Iraqi Citizens to "pay off" these debts?? Hows this for an easy solution: the US confiscates all the gold in Iraq, in turn, we will pay off thier entire debt load by printing a few more paper dollars? What a mess!!!

TownCrier

(04/14/2003; 17:03:17 MDT - Msg ID: 101335)

MK mentioned the 'Nightmare German Inflation'; read about it here

http://www.usagold.com/GermanNightmare.htmlForeword:
The many parallels between 1924 Germany and present-day United States are cause for concern. We have not yet reached the depths to which Germany descended in that era, but few can look at the constant depreciation of the dollar since the early 1970's and fail to be alarmed. It seems we differ from 1924 Germany only in the duration between cause and effect. While the German experience was compressed over a few short years, ours has been more protracted. I think this has occurred for two good reasons: First, American central bankers have learned enough from the German experience to delay and extend the consequences of printing too much fiat money. Second, Germany was a small state isolated from the rest of the world --- a pariah nation of sorts --- and, as a result, it had a difficult time finding a market for its government bonds. German deficits had to be financed internally --- an impossibility which greatly accelerated the printing of fiat currency.

Up until recently, the United States enjoyed a strong world-wide demand for its government bonds, so the negative affects of government deficits were subdued. But now low interest rates, and a growing fear among G-7 nations that U.S. deficits are out of control, has greatly curtailed foreign bond purchases. The Fed has been forced to monetize an ever larger portion of the debt as a result. This is the modern equivalent of "printing money". Whether or not we are out of control seems to be a matter for debate. The trend, however, is alarming. The largest deficit during the Nixon years was $ 23.4 billion; Ford --- $ 73.7 billion; Reagan --- $221.2 billion; Bush --- $290 billion; Clinton --- $350 billion. This, to say the least, is a frightening progression.

As this report points out, the correlation between deficits and inflation is sacrosanct ---deficits lead to inflation and uncontrolled deficits lead to uncontrolled inflation. Whether or not there will be a Nightmare American Inflation remains to be seen. Let it be said though that the trend is not favorable. The survivors of the German debacle did so by purchasing gold and rare coins early in the process. As a citizen and an investor, the best you can do is prepare, and then hope against hope that it doesn't happen here. This report of Germany's hyperinflation, originally published in 1970 by Scientific Market Analysis, could play an important part in that preparation process. There is little doubt it will affect your thinking. ---MK

Introduction

If history teaches anything, it is that government cannot be trusted to manage money. When currency is not redeemable in gold, its value depends entirely on the judgment and the conscience of the politicians. (That is the situation in this country today.)

Especially in an economic crisis or a war, the pressure to inflate becomes overwhelming. Any alternative may seem politically disastrous. Whether it be the Roman emperors repeatedly debasing their coinage, the French revolutionary government printing a flood of assignats, John Law flooding France with debased money, or the Continental Congress issuing money until it was literally "not worth a Continental," the story is similar. A government in financial straits finds its easiest recourse is to issue more and more money until the money loses its value. The entire process is accompanied by a barrage of explanations, propaganda and new regulations which hide the true situation from the eyes of most people until they have lost all their savings....

------(see url for full text)-------

(04/14/2003; 17:55:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101336)

Mabry21

Trying to get a hard figure on the Iraq debt situation is like trying to nail jello to the wall. I decided to go with what I could discern after reading about ten articles on the subject. One problem: The figure for the external debt I intended to use was $385 billion not $285 billion. Sorry for the error. In some instances the Kuwait reparations are included in the total. In others they are not. Time magazine put the total at $200 to $300 billion including the reparations. Reuters put the external debt at $142 billion with up to $300 billion in war reparations. The Washington Post put the Iraq debt at between "$60 billion and several hundred billion." I still don't know whether $300 billion in reparations needs to be added to the $385 external debt. Well, you get the idea.

The post I put together I did hastily after losing a better one to the internet somewhere. (Yes, that happens to me too). My goal was to start people thinking about a very serious problem that many are overlooking that is sure to have major implications for the world economy and relations between the most advanced industrialized nations. Few people know this but the Warburgs warned right after Versailles that the reparation load placed on the German people as a result of World War I would lead to a fracturing of Europe and greater problems down the road. He had a stake in that and eventually was forced to leave Germany as the Nazi regime took hold. We'll see what happens here, but this is no small problem. If anyone has better data for us Iraq's actual debt load, please post it. One things certain: Someone is going to have to pay for all this and for any extensions to the Gulf war effort. As I said when, Woolsey made the World War IV comments, wars cost money and you get it either from the people in the form of a direct tax, or the indirect method called currency inflation.

Thanks, Randy for putting up the German Nightmare Inflation link. That study says it in a nutshell for anyone with an interest.

Aristotle

(04/14/2003; 18:24:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101337)

nation of one (msg#: 101320) -- interesting post, but something doesn't compute

You raised some interesting points on self-fulfilling actions on rising Gold prices, but what you're trying to avoid being *forced* to do against your will in the shortrun doesn't strike me substantially different than what you'll do of your free will at the end of your plan.

You said,
= = = =
Men and women have "the wherewithal to make it go up, if they will do it. I am doing my part. ...I am holding on to my contracts. I will continue to do so. I am prepared to lose every cent. I will answer every margin call all the way to zero, because that is what is needed to really be a strong hand."
= = = =
Can I stand here and tell you that's financially obscene? Between now and contract expiry, let's pretend that you're not completely wiped out by margin calls. Or let's pretend that the price stays even. Or heck, let's pretend that it goes up a little. So basically, you held firm to your convictions of being a "strong hand" and didn't sell the contracts "prematurely" (i.e., against your will) but rather you held them to a later in its lifetime at which point you will still be SELLING them ALL THE SAME prior to expiry to liquidate your position. Where's the heroic principle in that -- selling on Friday instead of Wednesday?!!

Don't try to pull the wool over anyone's eyes around here, including your own. There's no way you're gonna hold these contracts for physical settlement because, if that was your intention all along, you wouldn't be worried about margin calls wiping you out. That's because your final cost for exercising that form of settlement (physical) was in fact established and locked in and known to you on that day you took the long side of your contracts.

I like your heart, fella, I really do, but oooomffph, please seek some professional financial help before you fritter away whatever wealth you have left! My advice remains the same, and if you want a second opinion, I'm sure there are some kindly souls around here who'd be happy to give you some fatherly words of guidance.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

silvercollector

(04/14/2003; 18:40:46 MDT - Msg ID: 101338)

slingshot

I've been wrong so many times getting myself into a position that 'should have been' instead of what 'will happen'.

Not this time.

I've got my nestegg of physical, in this regard I merely await the inevitable, the long term, steady 'depreciation' of this planet. In the long term, and I find it hard to debate this any other way, this planet will be on the rocks.

In the short term I'm going to await this WMD thing. I repeat the quote from earlier today, "the globe holds its breath for the US producing the proverbial smoking gun."
IMHO, this is such a swing point, this is the McDonalds game break. The US/UK will be able or will not be able to justify it's invasion of Iraq.

After seeing the fierce debate between Scott Ritter and Tierney the other day I did a 'search' on Scott Ritter and this man has been very busy since Gulf War 1. In my limited view, the completely opposite opinions of the 2 men is very much what the big picture has in store for us. It is identical to the globe vs. US/UK debate; is Iraq a threat or not?

If the US is vindicated (the war was necessary) there will be a rush of money, forgiven debts etc. and Bush and Blair will be hero's. If there are no WMD as Scott Ritter has adamantly charged the US/UK will be shunned.

This is a ballsy call by B&B, all the money have been bet on one hand. I left the table a long time ago and I will attempt to catch the train one way or the other, literally.

Good luck.

sc

TownCrier

(04/14/2003; 19:13:04 MDT - Msg ID: 101339)

U.S. Treasuries lose ground for a third day

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030414/markets_bonds_10.htmlCHICAGO, April 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices dropped for a third consecutive session on Monday, continuing to factor in what seems like a brighter economic outlook.

-------(see url)-----

Looking forward, one has to ask if the recovery, when it comes, can possibly be beneficial to the dollar.

Consider, the bond market is far larger than the stock market. Will all of those dollar-denominated bond holders be willing to absorb principal/pricing losses in the bond market as expectations of recovery (and higher interest rates) take hold? As market interest rates rise from preemptive dishoarding of bonds, this puts/keeps the equity markets on the ropes as corporations find that their new borrowing becomes more costly.

Will the Fed continue its easy money policy in order to feed the economic recovery? Of course it will. Even if it has to become the bond buyer of last resort. Again, in a world full of dollars/bonds sitting almost idly as reserve assets, can this possibly inspire a continuation of confidence in those positions? No.

Protect your purchasing power with a diversification into gold. Call Centennial tomorrow to make arrangements suitable to your personal portfolio needs.

R.

a nation of one

(04/14/2003; 20:57:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101340)

Reply to Aristotle (04/14/03; 18:24:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 101337)

I respect your comments. But you don't understand what I am doing. This is probably because I have not
stated it with sufficient clarity. The approach I am taking consists of a wide range of concepts, some of
which differ profoundly from common practice, but which I believe are consistent with reality. I am kind of
an unusual person. My life goals are not the same as those of most people. I began my quest when I was five
or six and have been applying it for a long time. Interacting with markets is only one aspect of my interests.
One thing that I have seen is that what appears to be the thinking that our civilization is based on consists
substantially of erroneous conclusions. Many of these are still in place even though better thinking has been
developed and has been available for thousands of years. The markets are not immune to this. Rather, they
often employ such elements deliberately, and they also sometimes employ others unknowingly. The Internet
enables people to converse on these insights. Previously there was no practical way to do this, except on a
personal bases, which severely limits communication of ideas like these for a number of reasons. One
problem is that it is hard to find anyone who is interested. But on a forum like this, if a thousand people read
what I write, a few will know what I am talking about, and will have had similar thoughts themselves. That's
all I am trying to do. All I am doing is pointing out some patterns of behavior that are available to everyone,
if they want to assume the risk themselves and apply them. I am aware that I might be completely wrong. I
also know from experience that feeling completely wrong usually accompanies radical ideas, and that in
environments where the people are carrying a burden of inadequately developed behavioral patterns
-developed under circumstances dominated by inaccurate perceptions, among other things- any careful
statement of a basic truth will seem radical. I don't want to go on too long here, since that would be asking
too much. But there are a number of assumptions that you make with regard to my actions, which are not my
actions at all.

melda laure

(04/14/2003; 21:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101341)

Oil Mortgage for sale

"I want a piece of this magnificent cake" -Leopold.I ought to address my response to Aristotles comments on my last post, but first off, tonights discussion:

MK, you put the Iraqi debt in the 300 to 400 billion range. I have heard it said that Iraqi oil production is in the 3 billion barrels per year range (and lots of arguments on what it takes to get that to 6 or 7 BPY); someone on the news put the total "profits" at about 5$/bbl or about 15 gigabucks/yr. Stipulating your debt figures as correct, we're looking at 20 years to pay up (no consideration given to interest or inflation). Add in another 150 billion for war costs and reconstruction of infrastructure and this thing barely floats. Put up 30yr (dollar) bonds at 0% and you might just pay it all back before the wells run dry.

And now that we're on the subject of re-financing I can address the issue of a new Iraqi central bank. As I said before, not being an expert on these matters I honestly assert I have no idea what will happen, but the issue seems to be fast approaching, with little thought given in the press. What this issue bodes for gold and oil I dont know but it strikes me as an opportunity for really sweet backroom deals for somebody.

Here's a quick thought to show the stickiness of the issue: If I were the new iraqi congress I'd want to re-finance in the weakest currency for a long time (30yrs plus). The bonds would become worthless soon enough. The temptation is to borrow in dollars. But that only GUARANTEES that oil will be sold for dollars until the DEBT IS PAID OFF especially if the dollar starts sinking. (in the event that the dollar were to rise or hold up too strongly then Iraq might be forced into an IMF fandango- and oil is STILL sold for dollars.)

melda laure

(04/14/2003; 21:45:07 MDT - Msg ID: 101342)

Oil Mortgage - rest of post

Sorry, didn't post the whole thing the first time...

I ought to address my response to Aristotles comments on my last post, but first off, tonights discussion.

MK, you put the Iraqi debt in the 300 to 400 billion range. I have heard it said that Iraqi oil production is in the 3 billion barrels per year range (and lots of arguments on what it takes to get that to 6 or 7 BPY); someone on the news put the total "profits" at about 5$/bbl or about 15 gigabucks/yr. Stipulating your debt figures as correct, we're looking at 20 years to pay up (no consideration given to interest or inflation). Add in another 150 billion for war costs and reconstruction of infrastructure and this thing barely floats. Put up 30yr (dollar) bonds at 0% and you might just pay it all back before the wells run dry.

And now that we're on the subject of re-financing I can address the issue of a new Iraqi central bank. As I said before, not being an expert on these matters I honestly assert I have no idea what will happen, but the issue seems to be fast approaching, with little thought given in the press. What this issue bodes for gold and oil I dont know but it strikes me as an opportunity for really sweet backroom deals for somebody.

Here's a quick thought to show the stickiness of the issue: If I were the new iraqi congress I'd want to re-finance in the weakest currency for a long time (30yrs plus). The bonds would become worthless soon enough. The temptation is to borrow in dollars. But that only GUARANTEES that oil will be sold for dollars until the DEBT IS PAID OFF especially if the dollar starts sinking. (in the event that the dollar were to rise or hold up too strongly then Iraq might be forced into an IMF fandango- and oil is STILL sold for dollars.)

(missing conclusion):

So, as I see it, the winner isn't the guy who gets PAID; but rather the nation that does the LOANING (think Lat Am). In effect, offering to renegociate the re-mortgaging of Iraq for "dollars" or "euros" or any other large pile of billions of fiat, which will then have to be recycled into REAL oil shipments and the return of the imaginary money. If I were Chiraq, I'd offer to foot the whole bill (I really ought to shut up now). Other candidates for this "Philanthropy" masquerade: Saudis, China, Japan, hmmm.

Issued with warnings and apologies to Aristotle for any shrapnel wounds; I've been woolgathering; next time I'll be more careful about those ceramic foundations: there's a lot of sharp edges when the edifice shatters.

mikal

(04/14/2003; 21:56:41 MDT - Msg ID: 101343)

Fed up with Fed feeding frenzy

The governments using fiat will always censor news and divert attention from money issues.�
John Maynard Keynes in 1919 said: "There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."

Socialist Money: Federal Reserve Notes (or any of the other central bank managed fiat moneys globally), counterfeit money.
The Fed has a government enforced monopoly on the issuance of money within U.S. borders. So they don't face the profit and loss discipline of the market.
The private central bank can't get the vital signals that a truly private company gets to guide its actions. If the Fed printed too much money last year, should the Fed even be "in business"?
And the rate of interest; without a free market in money and loans no one can know where it should be. If the Fed starts printing enough money to give wallpaper a bad name, then they're history. Monetizing can only go so far to maintain the illusion of "economic recovery". Higher rates and hidden liquidity notwithstanding.
Consider that the land the federal and state bureaucracies manage, isn't exactly apportioned sensibly, be it for parks, agricultural and industrial development, housing or mining, etc. Without real prices from a real market, the gubmint doesn't sustainably control the things it socializes.
Socialist money makes as much sense as socialist schools, tenemants and food stamps for all.
The answer? Replace the socialist system with market freedom.
Why keep the private central bank? Get the government out of the money business. The amount of currency and coin and the interest rate would be decided by voluntary market exchanges and cooperation.

goldenboy

(04/14/2003; 22:32:16 MDT - Msg ID: 101344)

Melda Laure; MK; Iraqi Oil Revenues

The benefit of taxing some of the Iraqi oil offtake to pay for a portion of the war costs is a trifling amount compared to the benefit of causing the marginal price of oil to fall. When they get the volume up, then provided they are at the controls, then it seems to me the US will have the ability to increase supply and drop the price. Even if the west makes nothing on the Iraqi oil, how much do they save if they can reduce the barrel price by $5?

melda laure

(04/14/2003; 23:23:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101345)

Goldenboy

Yes, exactly, I belive that was my point. It's not the return on the loan that matters, but the instrumentality of the Loan as a sort of golden thumbscrew to prime the juice flow and keep dollar oil flowing hither.

Bankers more dangerous than standing armies, etc, etc.

Aristotle

(04/14/2003; 23:58:16 MDT - Msg ID: 101346)

Some feedback for a nation of one

Well, buddy, if it's as you say, and you're truly hoping to influence people by your own example, then you're gonna hafta try a little harder to explain your strategy to me.'Cause my guess is that if I'm not gettin' it, lots of others are confused too.

My distinct impression was that you had taken the long side of some Gold futures contracts. As the price started heading south, you vowed to us that you wouldn't be shaken out of you position -- that you'd do whatever it took to meet your margin calls. You posted that if Gold got below a certain level it would be uncomfortable, and if it got lower still you'd be angry, and if it got to yet some lower level than that, you'd cry, etc. etc but you'd hold on all the way to past your breaking point if you had to.

It seemed to me that you thought something would be accomplished if you made your margin calls and resisted selling.

I'm merely pointing out that it seems like a futile exercise in financial pain. Giving you the benefit of the doubt, let's say you are able to hang on and meet your margin calls without liquidating your long positions. Great. You didn't have to sell your contracts. Now, you tell me, how exactly do you intend to exit your position?

My guess it that you'll be a seller one day, some day sometime before expiration of the contracts.

What net good have you done not selling out on Wednesday only to turn seller on Friday? At the end of the week, you've spent lots of money yet haven't taken any Physical off the market. Furthermore, you've sent us into the weekend having incrementally added a little downward pricing pressure to New York brand Gold.

Tell ya what... you promise to tell me what day you intend to exit your position as you join ranks with the paperGold sellers to offset your position, and I'll go stand in Another line (the right one) to be buying real Gold that same day. Best wishes for a lucrative outcome for you on that day. I know it will be Another good day for me, adding to the pile.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

mikal

(04/16/2003; 00:00:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101385)

@SKI

Re: Nuggets
That looks like fun! Many of us enjoyed your silver "lists" last year, though there was much to digest in one sitting. It helped to reread them on other forums, but being a goldbug mainly, you should have surmised my level of silver comprehension. But your investment "Nuggets" sound like kernels to chew one step at a time, like FOA's gold trail? There really is no end to either trail, its continuous.
Now seems a perfect time for such foundational posting, as the gold market resumes trend and the world recovers from oppressive war news.

ski

(04/16/2003; 00:10:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101386)

Golden Nuggets .... Proverbs

Proverbs
1. R. Prechter "Those who have not studied markets (or ski would add, are not following the advice of proven market professionals) should not be investing, they should be saving, which means acting to protect principal, not to generate a return when they do not know how."

2. R. Prechter "The truth is that making money in markets is normally difficult; in fact, for most people, it is impossible." (Be especially aware of money that is easily made.)

3. J. Dines "Amateurs know the rules (of investing), but seasoned professionals know the exceptions."

4. J. Burnstein "(No matter what expert writings' you study) ... We always arrive at the inescapable conclusion that profitable trading in stocks and futures can only be achieved by individuals who are either extremely fortunate or extremely disciplined. Discipline is a rubric under which are subsumed such quintessential skills and qualities as self-control, consistency, organization, persistence, direction, insight, and the ability to take action when necessary. Unfortunately these are skills which cannot be learned easily or quickly."

5. B. Baruch "No law can protect a man from his own errors. The main reason why money is lost in stock speculations is not because Wall Street is dishonest, but because so many people persist in thinking that you can make money without working for it and that the stock exchange is the place where this miracle can be performed."

6. The market is far wiser than any one individual. The market reflects the sum total of people's opinions. The market is always RIGHT at any given moment.

7. Markets are ruled by emotion; if they were not, there would be no markets. If the markets functioned as perfect economic systems, prices woud always be at the RIGHT level. Human nature combined with uncertainty form emotionalism which feeds volatility which generate WRONG prices. WRONG prices generate opportunity.

8. The purpose of money is to get what you want out of life and to insulate yourself from others' stupidity or malevolence.

9. Every time history repeats itself, the price goes up.

10. Economics is basic to everything else, if there is a breakdown, all other systems will collapse.

11. A country that does not have a stable currency cannot survive.

12. Each generation always thinks it's special in some way and that new rules apply to it's games. So they consciously repeat the errors of their ancestors, hoping that this time things will be different. Their always wrong!

13. Human reaction to circumstances tends to be similar in similar circumstances. (No matter what century your calendar says you are in.)

14. The affairs of the world work in fairly predictable sequences, but TIME is one aspect impossible to predict.

15. In every crisis both danger and opportunity abounds.

16. In bull markets, put the majority of your assets in going long. IN bear markets, put the majority of your assets in going short.

17. Experience teaches that following market trends is perhaps the single most profitable trading tool.

18. If you wait till their is nothing to worry about, you'll wait until eternity. Take your position and use stops to protect capital.

19. Knowing how to live, work, spend and save wisely is more important than good investing.

20. Wealth comes from Saving, Investing and Profits.

21. The "other" way of increasing your wealth is to decrease spending, wasting money, paying excess taxes and throwing money away .... this is tax free.

22. All facets of investing take work, time and experience to master. Success comes after you pay your dues.

23. It is almost always a bad idea to substitute someone else's judgement for your own in the hope it will prove to be wiser. A better idea is to improve your own judgment ... usually by making your own mistakes.

24. Because the mix of inputs in a given market is never identical, there is no substitute for your own original, ever-adjusting, ever-compensating thought process.

25. The worst investment you can make is one you do not understand.

26. A change in the initial "Discount Rate Direction" will usually signal a change in the overall stock market direction.

27. Good management is 10 times more important to a company's success than any other consideration.

28. Ski's action formula, "It makes almost no sense to purchase or otherwise acquire good economic advice and not make purchases, adjustments, or otherwise heed the advice by putting at least some of it into practice."

29.It usually makes no sense to buy a commodity when you can buy its producer for a discount.

30. Few things that "everybody" knows are worth knowing.

31. Once you have thought out a strategy, do not change it frivolously.

32. The trend is your friend.

33. Things often take longer than you expect to develop and then begin rushing more quickly than you expect once they are underway.

34. If you want to make a substantial profit, you cannot do it with a limited position.

35. Views ingrained over many years do not turn on a dime.

36. Most people do not like to change their plans.

37. It's just as bad to believe something that is false as it is to not believe something that is true.

38. The longer the bull market continues, the more certain people are that it will continue further.

39. There's nothing like a sustained bull market to make us believe we are investing geniuses.

40. R. Prechter "The effects that a change in (a newly emerging) market trend will have on society ARE NOT IN EVIDENCE at the start of the trend. (However), they become intensely manifest by the time of its termination."

41. When a market moves strongly in either direction, it carries at least 75% of stocks with it.

42. Markets have a tendency to go far beyond what's reasonable on both the upside and the downside.

43. There's no telling how tall a tree will grow or how high a stock, mutual fund or commodity price will rise. (In a final blow-off phase, value becomes irrelevant.)

44. Virtually everything: is cyclical, that goes around comes around, that goes up will come down, that is out of favor will return to favor. At some point, every market reverses itself. (And every prediction eventually comes true.)

45. Markets that appear to defy gravity do so on a temporary basis.

46. Vertically rising markets are always followed by vertically falling markets. The greater the up-move, the more spectacular the subsequent collapse is likely to be.

47. Overconsumption inevitably leads to a period of underconsumption of the same magnitude.

48. Fear like greed comes in waves.

49. Signs of trouble are frequently followed by the real thing.

50. In times of severe economic turmoil, ALL markets forces are disrupted to a point that virtually every trade carries a "turmoil tax". Even commodities like gold and silver may not even reflect their true purchasing power. In such times you are almost always better off being somewhere else that is not experiencing the turmoil.

mikal

(04/16/2003; 00:25:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101387)

Re: Postwar market behavior

A poster on another forum this week, bemoaned the fact that there is an options expiration coming up, apparently Friday. But whatever the details, these expiries nearly always affect trading during the week the puts and calls options are set to expire!
For example, if it is commodities expiry, then that exchange has a staked interest in seeing the greatest number of those commodity options expire worthless at maturity, like a casino minimizing payout. So the price would be set on Friday (or sometimes Thursday like when Good Friday, markets are probably closed) near a cluster of contracts-i.e. where the greatest number of puts and calls will expire worthless, "out of the money". Price anomalies around expirations are well known among seasoned traders. This could be stocks, commodities or any other options or group of options set to expire in a given week. Similar to end-of-month or end-of-quarter price action.
Subsequent to holidays, typically see very interesting trading patterns. Similar to end-of-war. Though many war issues remain unresolved, the general mood is now post-war.

ski

(04/16/2003; 00:40:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101388)

Golden Nuggets .... Supply and Demand Foreces

1. In a free market, the only thing that can change the price of an investment is a change in supply and/or demand.

2. Demand is an economic concept; a function of peoples' wealth, not their desires or even their numbers (population). An increase in wealth precedes an increase in demand. A decrease in wealth precedes a decrease in demand.

3. In a free market, supply always rises to meet demand .. (and demand to supply). Or, in a continuous auction market, supply and demand are always precisely equal, with even the slightest imbalance being immediately eliminated by changes in price and volume.

4. Martin Spring "Inflation arises when there is an excess of demand for good and services relative to supply; it is not related directly to money/credit supply. Only when money supply stimulates excess demand for goods and services do the prices of the latter generally rise."

5. Most information, although disseminated almost instantly, is assimilated slowly and ultimately fully undertood by a small portion of the investing public.

6. Information which is OBSCURE or DIFFICULT TO COMPREHEND is most useful, as that is the type of information which is also most slowly assimilated by most market participants.

7. Often, an object is available for less than you're willing to pay. And if you can obtain it for a given price, the fact that you'd pay more is irrelevant and unnoticed. As long as it isn't necessary, you won't be pressed to determine just how much you would pay for the product.

8. Prices GO DOWN to their lowest profitable selling point as long as the product is readily available because the sellers compete with each other. Prices GO UP when a shortage develops because buyers compete with each other.

9. Stocks go higher only because there is more buying than selling. (Or fall due to more selling than buying.)

10. When a market is slow or depressed, prices are set by those who have to sell. It is pretty rare that someone has to buy .... buying is discretionary.

11. Regardless of the overall direction of the market, relatively overpriced stocks tend to decline, and under priced securities tend to rise.

12. A broad base of buyers (or sellers) is more secure and predictable than a narrow base.

13. Taxes cause people to consume fewer of the things that are taxed.

14. What "other" markets are doing will spill over into your market.

15. Marc Faber "Liquidity always heads towards a rising market."

16. CONVENTIONAL WISDOM has an incredible pull and consequently always has a profound impact on investment markets that directly correlate to it. Stated in a slightly different way, "markets make opinions".

17. Jim Puplava "Markets are just as much influenced by PERCEPTIONS as they are REALITY."

18. Cheaper prices in a "recessionary industry" will stimulate growth in complementary industries that use the products created by the "recession industry."

ski

(04/16/2003; 02:06:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101389)

Golden Nuggets .... When to Buy and Sell

1. J. Blanchard "The smartest investors buy when an investment is cheap. It sounds silly to point out such an obvious investment truth. But history shows that only a very elite (and small) group of investors has ever been able to apply this simple wisdom to the markets."

2. Knowing WHAT TO BUY (or sell in shorting) is only one third of the problem. Knowing WHEN TO BUY and WHEN TO SELL are the other nearly equally important considerations. Human nature tends to pay the closest attention to "what" and not enough to both "when's".

3. Jim McKeever "Avoid bottom guessing and instead buy at the beginning of stage #2. This can be identified by the following: First, it must breakout above a previously reliable moving average. Second, it must break out above a previous high & ideally above all of the highs in stage #1 basebuilding phase. And finally, the previous should happen on significant volume." (Thin volume could be a false breakout.)

4. The idea is to be in a given investment only when the odds of its going up appear to be 90% or better; and to be short when the odds of its going down are equally strong.

5. BOTTOM GUESSING (or top guessing) is a dangerous thing, and more often loses money than it makes. It is usually based on fundamentals; which can give us the ultimate direction of a market, but we have to go the the technicals for timing. Fundamentals can never give us the timing as to when to buy or sell; only the direction. Bottom guessing is for novice and arrogant investors who haven't yet learned its insidios folly. Because the odds are so overwhelmingly on my side, I would take any bet against a bottom (or top) guesser.

6. Bull markets begin after a bear market has bottomed out and the market is severely oversold. There is dispair and people think they never want to touch that particular market again. That is the negative attitude out of which bull markets are born.

7. When a bottom is at hand, a feature article with strong emphasis results in only sporadic buying.

8. At bottoms, the most common or typical investor is the very sophisticated investor. At tops, the most naive.

9. It is rarely wise to "chase" any market when prices are charging ahead or even right after they have had a significant run up. (The converse is also true for falling markets.)

10. BUY, BUY, BUY ........ when the market tells you when to buy (a fast moving average crosses a slow moving average), buy at a point of maximum pessimism, when you can't convince anyone to buy, when prices are almost unaffected by bad news, when things literally cannot get any worse than they presently are (dispite your and everyone elses' feelings of the day) and can only get better, on bad news, at market bottoms, when everyone else is pessimistic and trying to sell, after prolonged negative periods where the last discouraged seller is gone, when a state of "no hope" exists, when a market is held in contempt and the investment is commonly thought of as foolish, stupid, ignorant, or forgotten, when the market is quiet, trading volume is low, when prices are stable or cheap, during extended periods that are void of positive news stories (under-reporting), when the item is easy to find, before people and dollars start chasing it, when EVERYONE else is negative (possibly even the contrarians, speculators and tired, old, diehard bulls), when a last substantial selling climax can be identified, when nobody else is or on weakness, not on strength. Do not buy when there are too many buyers because you will pay too much. Do not buy all at once (it may become a better bargain). Start buying when you are ready .... not forced or pressured.

SELL, SELL, SELL ...... when the market tells you when to sell (a fast moving average crosses a slow moving average), when things cannot get any better than they presently are (despite your and everyone elses' feeings of the day) and can only get worse, on good news, at market tops, after extended periods that lack urgent selling, when the item is expensive and rare, when it is easy to convince others to buy, when the investment is regarded as a low risk, desirable and highly respected by the public, when buying decisions are thought of as simple, sound, wise, elementary, no-brainers by novice investors, when novice investors are confidently giving market advice and sharing their wisdom, when the market is hot, trading volume is high and investments are loved, when volatile price swings are the order of the day, when everyone else is optimistic and buying, when Wall Street and Main Street investors hold huge positions, when you can't find a bear or a person who is actually acting like a bear, when a continuous steam of positive news stories are commonplace (over-reporting), when a last substantial buying claimax can be identified. Sell on strength not on weakness. Never sell when there are more sellers than buyers because you will not get the best prices for your goods. Don't sell all at once (the price may become even better). Start selling when you are ready.

11. When a market does not do what it should do, that is a sign to pay attention. Or, a market that will not rally on good news will usually fall rapidly on bad news.

12. Old saw: "When a market should fall but doesn't, that's the place to be."

13. When a market closes above or below a key target for three days in a row, assume a new trend is in place.

14. Anytime you can buy a commodity that is in demand for less than it's cost of production, in the long haul it will pay off.

15. In the short run, markets move on the public perception of the facts (not reality); in the long run, markets move on the reality or actual fundamentals (after traders finally wake up to their mistakes).

16. When the technicals and the fundamentals both point up, we want to be long in a market. When they both point down, we want to be short. But when the fundamentals point in one direction and the technicals point in another, caution needs to be exercised.

17. The majority is always wrong. The majority rush to buy at market tops and rush to sell at market bottoms.

18. Unanimity of public sentiment is perhaps the most certain single indicator that a top of a speculative boom has arrived.

19. When everyone knows an investment is a "smart move", the top has probably been reached.

20. Important tops can sometimes be identified when a majority of investors are more afraid of not catching the next upmove than being caught in the next plunge.

21. The death knell of any bubble is the growing reluctance of investors to commit new cash to a market that seems to have lost its irresistible upward momentum.

22. Money drives prices ... The most important determinant of investment market trends is a change of liquidity.... more liquidity (money) drives prices up.... and contracting liquidity is what drives prices down.

23. Steve Saville "A rising price, not a falling price, stimulates investment demand for any investment."

24. High volume churning after a long run-up means that all buying is being met by an equal amount of selling. Eventually, the buyers will run out of money, or patience, or both. Then the sellers take over.

25. Declining volume on rising prices is always the sign of an important top.

26. A higher volume of trades on upticks is bullish. While a higher volume on downticks is bearish.

27. Insider buying is normally a better indicator than insider selling.

28. In the early phases of a bear market, the bargain hunters buy the dips. Suddenly the dips become corrections, which then trigger more profit-taking. Finally the correction turns into a plunge, with everyone scramblng for the exits.

29. At market tops or during severe corrections, "euphoria" turns into caution. "Caution" turns into concern. "Concern" turns into fear.

30. Use bear market rallies to sell off your stocks and to short weaker stocks.

31. For the prudent investor, on the way up you buy the dips but on the way down, you short the reversal peaks.

32. By all means, leave the door open to your mistakes and let the market tell you when to sell by using "stops". A stop-loss should be located at a price that, if touched, would tell you that your expectation was wrong & that you should get out. Stop-losses also protect you from totally unexpected surprises that were impossible to see coming.

Belgian

(04/16/2003; 03:06:34 MDT - Msg ID: 101390)

MK / FreeWillie

@ FW : Euroland has an (divided-fractioned) army and military spending in total is half that of the US. But this army is pathetically outdated (technically) and (old) Europeans simply have no lust (reason) to fight .
In a first phase, Euroland is going to "integrate" the fractioned troops and modernise them. But we are NOT going to oppose the US in any military way. This would be a straigth guarantee for another WW-X ! No thank you !
EU military picture will evolve when the UK joins EMU and when the East block states come closer (integrated) to EMU. But don't expect the "euro" to be backed by a systemic war-logic !!! A good currency-concept doesn't need such a supplementary force. Watch the evolution in the ME and you will understand (probably even agree) ?

ECB marks its goldreserves, quarterly, at the euro market-price on the last day of each quarter. All other countries are pricing their gold-reserves at their convenience (according to their monetary policies). The US gold-reserves remain valued (booked) at 41,22 $/Oz. You can find some listing on these valuations in the WGC-archives.
But read the article (Mises) on GE, about the total UN-transparency of the central banks. We are witnessing this here in Belgium with the National Bank litigation (goldsales). Absolute top secret and nothing seems what it is. Remember those days of the UK, goldreserves sale announcement...they (Tony of course) said, it was to promote transparency !
What a farce ! But for me, the most simple reason for keeping to accumulate the secret, untransparent, very precious yellow. If Gold would have lost its *vital* importance...states (CBs-Treasuries) would promote it into the skies ! They don't and wan't !

@ MK : Yes, I regulary reread your insightful conversations with FOA. Let me speculate a bit :
The France(+ Belgium-Luxemburg)/Germany/Russia-troika is worried about the ME oil-reserves being confiscated by the Anglo-Americans. It seems to me that the troika is Not going to let this happen !? All 3 for different reasons.
Expanding Euroland imports the most of ME oil and Russia doesn't want the US to set oilprices at its own convenience. Russia is a growing producer of oil/gas resources and wants Euroland's co-operation to "stabilize" the energy prices for the general well being of as much parties as possible (producers and consumers).
When you look at a world map and pinpoint all the turmoil-spots...one can only conclude that this whole world is moving around the fast growing "oil-problem" (reserves and corridors)(Oil pricing). Colombia...Venezuela...Angola...Nigeria...Russia (Caspian oil)...Middle East...East Timor, and maybe other regions to come. The US has 41 military bases (and expanding), oil-strategically, placed around the globe. Soon, Petro-money will be associated/percepted with terror-money (cfr. blood-diamonts). That's a very sad and dangerous evolution. For how long can this be contained ? Rumsfeld cut the oil flow from Iraq to Syria !!! Very significant for what is to come, if Iraqi oil-reserves should become privatized under US/UK rule ! And with the UN having become totally irrelevant (?) the St. Petersburg reunion was a first step into a sudden re-inforced (core) coalition against US oil control.

Watch today's, further/renewed, euro-strength and Gold's weakness/inertion. Idem for POO. Why isn't there any post-war dollar-euphoria ? Taking into account that the dollar might be percepted as a stronger oil-controller. Strange... isn't it ? Do you think that the UK wants to remain outside this growing EU-East, coalition ? Let's wait on some declarations at today's EU meeting in Athens (Tony is there too- 10 signing EU treaty). Let us wait for a reaction on the Snow call to write off Iraq's debt. Who has to write off, what (billions of oil-reserve barrils/concessions)(Lukoil-TotalFina-?) !? Oh madre mia, what a wrestling.

Will the Russian devil be the one who is going to contain the emperial ambitions ??? A dangerous power play, isn't it ?

BTW for the Hugh Hendrey (Irish Gold wolfie) supporters : His excellent/outstanding performing fund has come under severe attack of the UK's IMA regulating body. Hugh loves Gold and Real Freedom ! More evidence that even private funds have to walk in lockstep with the interventionists - containers !

May I say...interesting times ?

Aristotle

(04/16/2003; 03:09:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101391)

miscellaneous responses

= = =To Paper Avalanche who asked me, "Any thoughts on the dinar / dirahm relationship when silver becomes worthless and redundant?":

The gold/silver relationship of the dinar/dirham has no modern-day economic significance. What's that mean? Load up on dinars (they're as good as Krugerrands) and ignore the dirhams, that is, unless you have a religious compulsion to use some once in awhile.

= = =To FreeWillie,who asked anybody, "How is the EU's marking its gold reserves "to market" any different form how the US or other countries value their reserves? Isn't the "official" gold price dead?":

Let me answer your question about the "EU" [sic] marking its Gold to reserves to market, and correct the official body involved at the same time.

Here's how it is. The ECB and only the 12 EMU participants (together comprising the Eurosystem) of the larger 15 nation EU currently looks to the morning Gold fixing of the LBMA on the last business day of the quarter for the market price at which to carry it's Gold assets (per ounce and ounce receivable) for the following fiscal quarter.

Another prominant Gold nation which is not in the EMU, or even in the EU for that matter, is Switzerland. Switzerland also carries its Gold reserves at market values established fresh, quarterly.

Odd man out among the Gold biggies is the United States. The Treasury operates in conjunction with the Federal Reserve to monetize all Gold reserves through the issuance of Gold certificates to be held as Fed assets at a rate of $42.22 per each ounce. If you're like Leigh, you won't dare take me at my word, so you can look it up in 31U.S.C.5117 if you'd like to. Reading Federal code... bleh. Don't do it, brother. Sister?

Is the "official" price dead? I'm not sure what you mean by that. This is what I see. One day, best management practices will likely be implemented universally, which will see CBs with a reserve emulation closer to that of the Eurosystem than the Amerimess. In other words, the official price of Gold will be a floater. Floating upward in price (and value) as the banks churn out ever more and more money and as the globe experiences overall economic growth and an increase in *aggregate* wealth and standard of living.

And silver? It'll be the "poor nation's Gold." (Just kidding!) It'll have no significant role in this regard. Sooooo....

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Topaz

(04/16/2003; 03:13:33 MDT - Msg ID: 101392)

@ Socrates...(sorry to butt in on Ski's most informative series)

There is every reason to believe your theory is solid Sir, E320-$358 makes sense if a 2Yr overview is taken. T-Bond Yields "should" drop in tandem if recent trends are continued...a weakening Cash$ AND rising Yields are a management NO-NO from here on out imo and would indicate an abandonment of $ hegemony.
The other side of the coin is E/$ @ 320...If the ECB were to acknowledge the disinflationary impact the stronger Euro was having (as identified by an E300 Gold price) and cut their IR's we may yet see parity revisited.
The present "out-of-kilter" situation will rectify itself shortly, fun to watch.

Topaz

(04/16/2003; 03:46:57 MDT - Msg ID: 101393)

Dinar/Dirham @ PA

It's been quite a while since I last checked and thus may be wrong but the relationship, one to the other is simply a "weight-size" thing. NO specific "value" is nominated and so is determined in the marketplace. Any attempt at official valuation would be bogus and consistent with the bimetallic standards of yore.
We of the West can't comprehend this system without reverting back to todays Fiat derived price relationship...the part I liked was, "you can make your own". I'd be pushing out the Dinar's...trouble is, I'd hate to part with any.

silvercollector

(04/16/2003; 05:38:07 MDT - Msg ID: 101394)

I've got a big whopper so we start our day right!!

Yesterday my wife gets talking about investments to a MORON. After my wife 'admits' she is dabbling in gold the guy says, "Gold is such a stupid investment!"

A week ago the wife of the MORON told my wife that he had lost $700,000 in the tech meltdown.

Now here's an really objective guy!!!!

Have a golden day!

Spartacus

(04/16/2003; 05:41:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101395)

Stiglitz Urges Japan To Weaken Yen To Ease Deflation

http://news.nasdaq.com/news/newsStory.aspx?&cpath=20030416\ACQDJON200304160015DOWJONESDJONLINE000009.htm
TOKYO -(Dow Jones)-- Japan should print money and weaken the yen to ease deflationary pressures on the nation's struggling economy, a former World Bank chief economist said Wednesday.
-----
Stiglitz also said that a change in mindset is required to resolve the problem of deflation, and proposed that the government, not the Bank of Japan, should print money, thus weakening the yen and curbing deflation. --

Cavan Man

(04/16/2003; 06:02:49 MDT - Msg ID: 101396)

@Aristotle

AU price MUST float. There is no other economically rational option. This cannot be avoided though it can be delayed. Even I can see the necessity and the eventuality! Completely agree. Keep the faith...CM

Socrates964

(04/16/2003; 06:04:34 MDT - Msg ID: 101397)

Topaz

Actually, I am more of the view that initially at least, bond prices will be artificially supported (I think that this has been going on for some time) and that the US$ will take the strain.

IMHO, it is more instructive to look at the euro/$ and the C$, Aus $, SFR/$ rates than the dollar index, since the latter is contaminated by the $/Y.

We appear to have a situation where the Japanese and US authorities are supporting each other - hence the Yen is devaluing slightly against the $.

This is an interesting situation. If we look at Japan's trade statistics

http://www.jetro.go.jp/ec/e/stat/jpn_trade/200212.html

FDI

http://www.mof.go.jp/english/fdi/2002a_2.htm

and BOP

http://www.mof.go.jp/bop/p14all_a.htm

It seems fairly clear that a)75% of Japan's trade surplus ($60bn of $80bn) is with the US, b) Japan is a major exporter of capital - but for portfolio investment rather than direct investment.

Hence, there appears to be a gentlemen's agreement, whereby the US allows Japan to run a huge trade surplus, provided that the whole thing is ploughed back into the US financial markets [I am not an expert on the Japanese economy by any means, and am very happy to be corrected by anyone who is].

It nevertheless seems to me that this arrangement is inherently unstable, since the only way the US can put its house in order is to reduce imports. The question is whether the Japanese will swallow this deterioration in their terms of trade with the US and blithely continue pouring money into US securities.

The only source of adjustment I can see is Japan's $30bn trade deficit with the Middle East - roughly the entire output of Iraqi oil.

It's pretty clear what the implications are - there would seem to be a natural tendency for Japan's trade surplus with the US to decline - hence it will require either coercion or free oil to keep Japanese portfolio flows into US securities. I'm not convinced about the coercion variable due to the N Korea situation, but it is open to a latitude of interpretations.

If anything, the current account dynamics point to a tendency for the yen to appreciate in value (declining portfolio investment)against the dollar.

Mr Gresham

(04/16/2003; 06:20:34 MDT - Msg ID: 101398)

Sir Belgian

How did we ever get so lucky as to have you around, and for so long. I just realized that I had come to expect that good people would disappear on us before we could really enjoy their company. Thanks for showing up here each day with your unique perspective, and ENERGY! You really help to anchor this fine community.

Remember: Before there was Clousseau, there was Poirot!

The Invisible Hand

(04/16/2003; 06:44:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101399)

The match is being played in Athens (EU summit) today and tomorrow

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2952959.stmSNIPS:
Most EU leaders are thought to be keen to move on from their bitter pre-war splits, and at least agree on how to run and rebuild Iraq after the conflict.
�
United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, also attending the two-day summit, will consult key members of the UN Security Council on their views on a future role for the UN in Iraq.
�
Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, �said �"In the long term, nobody can govern the world alone."
�
French President Jacques Chirac and Mr Schroeder have both made clear they expect the UN to play a high-profile, central role, covering humanitarian assistance as well as offering some form of political input.
But the United States, which led the military intervention in Iraq, believes it should decide largely how any post-conflict administration is shaped
==
Leaving one's anarcho-capitalist objections against any and all government (and government institutions like the BBC) aside for a moment, one cannot help but wonder why the divide continues. Or is the reason that Tommy Franks didn't yet declare, except if I'm mistaken, the war to be over?

miner49er

(04/16/2003; 07:26:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101400)

Topaz @ Dinar / Dirham

http://www.islamicmint.com/islamicdinar/whatrthey.html

According to Islamic Law...

The Islamic Dinar is a specific weight of 22k gold (917.) equivalent to 4.25 grams.

The Islamic Dirham is a specific weight of pure silver equivalent to 3.0 grams.

Umar Ibn al-Khattab established the known standard relationship between them based on their weights: "7 dinars must be equivalent to 10 dirhams."

"The Revelation undertook to mention them and attached many judgements to them, for example zakat, marriage, and hudud, etc., therefore within the Revelation they have to have a reality and specific measure for assessment [of zakat, etc.] upon which its judgements may be based rather than on the non-shari'i [other coins].

Know that there is consensus [ijma] since the beginning of Islam and the age of the Companions and the Followers that the dirham of the shari'ah is that of which ten weigh seven mithqals [weight of the dinar] of gold. . . The weight of a mithqal of gold is seventy-two grains of barley, so that the dirham which is seven-tenths of it is fifty and two-fifths grains. All these measurements are firmly established by consensus." Ibn Khaldun, Al-Muqaddimah

G'day good Sir. Just weighing in briefly. The above link (provided the other day by someone here), gives us an official exchange rate of 7 gold dinars : 10 silver dirhams.

With this, IMHO, anyone who was required to execute at this official exchange rate would be without gold by the close of the first business day. Everyone else would make it mysteriously vanish to their hidden chambers, or overseas vaults. Silver would come from everywhere, and find no gold, and this arbitrary rate would be immediately discredited. Save for those compelled or willing to observe this official rate due to religious authority, it would have no standing in practice.

And of course this has nothing to do with my or any individual's personal "bias" toward gold. The obvious arbitrage from world market relationships (1 : 72) vs. the religiously imposed 1 : 1.43 relationship of dinar/dirham creates a spread that would create untold financial catastrophes if allowed to free-wheel into existence. Undoubtedly to prevent this kind of chaos, all kinds of speed bumps, and sheep gates will be put in the way.

So... do you think the usual song will be sung? Those who cannot (or will not) meet the official 7 for 10 with real coins, but are obligated to honor it, might just issue promises to meet their obligation instead..., but you just have to wait a little while? And won't the typical business-minded individual find it easier to e-transact things instantly, rather than have metal packaged under guard, insured, weighed, assayed, transported (under guard), and have the process repeat itself on the other side, and have means in place to reconcile conflicts under legal norms should any (naaahhh...) ever arise? So with both supply side and demand side finding use of paper/electronic transactions preferable to moving actual metal, isn't the temptation there to push the envelope a bit? Religious constraints and the fear of God? Some will abide the law, but boyz-L-B-boyz... (as they have been since the beginning of time).

And so these notes will circulate "as good as gold" -- the gold they promise to be redeemable for, so long as the public has faith in the system. And won't those whose interests it is to promote the validity of the relationship, make sure that enough coins are available to honor redemptions, so to foster the impression, AND therefore reduce the inclination for redemptions AT ALL? Indeed, if one wants to hold the silver dirham instead, I am convinced they will not be disappointed. There will be plenty of them. And if one wants to trade in them, we just need to look back at the lyrics, again...

As long as sellers believe (or are willing to place their bets that the next guy still believes) that the 7 : 10 holds, then prices will reflect this in terms of an ultimate stability to gold. When faith in the 7 : 10 wavers, then prices will rise in terms of dirham, as people no longer believe in the official "value" placed upon them -- i.e., they are valued at .7 gold dinars each. Legally, the price will rise in terms of gold dinars, also, but no one will use them (at least not officially). Off-market (black market) trading at a discount in gold will take place, when settled in metal on the spot (but only in the back of the store...).

One may have a personal preference to the Ag. And if one wants to hold Ag in piles as high as the heavens, great. But the practical assessment is that the grand powers have always, without any exception whatsoever, for all time, favored gold over silver, and so it shall ever be. Why fight this? (Again, IMHO...)

Anyway, enjoy reading your posts... take care,
miner

contrarian

(04/16/2003; 07:32:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101401)

ski--thank you

ski--thank you for your superb golden nuggets. Please keep them coming. I'm going to print them out for reference.

Sometimes one does come across nuggets of wisdom, flashes of insight that have the ring of truth, and these seem to fit the bill. Trouble is, it's hard to find them all in one place. Usually they're interspersed with nonsense or the clutter of the day's temporary and misleading financial meanderings.

The thing, though, is that when you do come across something like a golden nugget, you have a gut feeling about it--it rings true and shines forth. It hits you in the gut with the force of truth.

You seem to have quite handily panned them out of the stream!

Leigh

(04/16/2003; 07:49:27 MDT - Msg ID: 101402)

miner49er

That was the most informative, easy-to-understand reason to buy gold that I've read here or anywhere. THANK YOU!!

Aristotle, appreciated your response!

Au-some

(04/16/2003; 07:53:18 MDT - Msg ID: 101403)

Money matters

http://wfhummel.cnchost.com/index.htmlAn greatlink for those of us who have more questions than answers.
snippet: What is a
Dollar Bill?

Most of us would say a dollar bill is money, and think no more about it. Indeed the dollar bill is money, if we refer to its role as a medium of exchange. But there is much more to understand about it.

Fiat Money

A dollar bill is one of seven denominations of Federal Reserve notes currently issued. All notes are fiat money, meaning the government declares them to be money. Together they comprise almost all of the monetary base on which our modern credit system is built. Though not convertible into gold or any other valuable commodity, they play the role that gold once played. An important difference is that they can be produced in any quantity at very low cost. Then why are such notes accepted in payment for goods and services?

The Key Role of Taxes

The answer is that Federal taxes must be paid in fiat money. Every Federal Reserve note contains the inscription: This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private. A note has no value other than the promise behind it. However declaring it to be legal tender in settlement of debts between private parties would not be sufficient. But the need to acquire fiat money in order to pay one's taxes makes notes valuable as money.

Fiat money exists both as Federal Reserve notes and as bank reserves on deposit at the Fed. Notes could be used to pay taxes, but are mainly used as street money within the private sector. Normally taxes are paid by check, which results in a debit against the bank's own reserves. However whether one pays by check or by cash, the tax liability will be cleared.

A dollar bill is an IOU of the government, and is shown as a liability on its books. When we use it to buy something, we are actually transferring an obligation of the government to the seller. These third-party IOUs are regularly used as a medium of exchange in the private sector. They pass from buyer to seller without a second thought about their real nature.

An Analogy

To further illustrate the dual nature of the dollar bill, consider the following parallel: A subway company (the government) issues a token (dollar bill) in exchange for something of value (goods or services). That token is a promise (an IOU) of the company for a ride (government services). When you deposit the token (pay taxes), the company redeems the IOU, provides the ride and thereby honors its promise.

My question: Does this mean that ultimatly we all work for the government, and the government is taking us all for a ride?

Belgian

(04/16/2003; 07:58:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101404)

@ Socrates964

Nothing (repeat-nothing) is going to stop the Chinese expansion !!! Japan will become insignificant as a world player, thanks to US subordination and Chinese crushing competiviness. So, for the time being, the US's "growing" trade deficit (besides the budged deficit) is more or less guaranteed for quite some time. Note also, that Argentina is printing a new load of its confetti.

The US$, has to...wants to, decline in exchange rate...but can't...isn't allowed. This is a *** disastrous *** position (dilemma) for the US$ itself and many of its derivative currencies (debt-papers). Japan is in this sinking dollar-boat. I still remember a certain Hashimoto (PM-?), threathening the US monetary policies, with a "GOLD" warning in 1997 or something ! One doesn't make such a threath, twice. Those Billions of japanese savings are still available for an eventual gigantic Goldrush, once Japan (housewifes and BoJ) has to throw its towels into the ( US protected) economical ring.
That's why I'm very curious to see them developping a military industry (desperate act). One wonders why the WGC has established a Physical Gold fund in Australia instead of in Japan !? Maybe the Japanese are a bit smarter and prefer the real physical stuff in hand ?

Bear in mind that Chinese and Japanese, deeply hate each other and not at all ready for any kind of (economical-monetary) compromise or co-operation.

Japan is toast with a crashing dollar and can't fall back on an already saturated internal economy...this in sharp contrast with China and an expanding Euroland (Eastwards).

The above economic, probable, evolving realities, are all negative for the dollar reserve-currency and consequently a big plus for Gold.

It is also against this background that I see the US's quest for oil as to keep the dollar in * use * for some more time.

@ Sir Gresham : The pleasure is all mine, Sir ! Thanks.
As time goes by...more and more people will realy "understand" and "experience", WHY Gold property has to be kept/fostered, Physically in one's own hands !
The present gigantic "containment" of the many systems do illustrate how fragile/etherical these systems realy are !
One's currency's purchasing power can vaporize overnight.
Not only for Argentinians, Iraqis, etc...but also for 200 million affluent japanese, 270 million americans, 300 (500) million eurolanders. Simply because the rulers decide so with the stroke of a pen. Yes, I think the Kondratieff-Winter is coming.

@ MK : Your question : If the Iraqi protectorate gives the US a vote in OPEC ? I am afraid Sir, that Iraq and probably the ME, might turn into a sort of Vietnam-like conflic !? Pure speculation...? Maybe ? Watch the Russians !
The POO-levels (dollarprice) will decide if it creates room for peaceful compromise. And if the global economy comes into a situation where the POO is more decisive for growth...this POO will become much more important for economical survival/relance. Let us keep on watching our crystal balls.

OvS

(04/16/2003; 08:18:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101405)

Ski's 'Golden Nuggets'

Dear Ski:

Most people get trapped by these golden nuggets.
Cheap and dear prices are always relative. One
could have applied your 10 and 11 (sell'sell'sell
and buy,buy,buy) all the way at many points during
the last bull-market and the current bear-market
and done the wrong thing.
Another point: When everyone is scared and no-one
wants to invest in a particular stock, and the prices
are outragously cheap, this might not be the right time to buy, because it's 1 minute before bankruptcy.
On and on. Sophisticated investers also get slaughtered
on both ends. No-one is right all the time. At certain
points the herd is also right, sometimes for considerable
length of time (last bull-market).
A good way to approach is: treat the markets like a
backgammon game. You throw the dice, yet a good player
is always ahead of an inferior player in spite of the
dice. Not in any particular game, but take 10 plays and
your lucky dice runs dry.
The few good investors I know usually hum the tune:

Row row row your boat
gently down the stream
merely merely merely merely
life is but a dream.

In other words, distancy yourself from intense emotions.
Be objective, do your research, don't take anything for
granted and have more noble thoughts in mind than the
avaricious markets can provide.

Cor Tauri

(04/16/2003; 08:36:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101406)

the WEIGHT of 7 dinars must be equivalent to (the weight) of 10 dirhams

http://www.islamicmint.com/newsarticles/minaret.htmlfrom the link:
The door to debasement opened in the next century when the silver to gold exchange rate suffered its first serious change since the rise of Islam. In the early centuries of Islam the rate had always been around 20:1. In the thirteenth century changes in the market led scholars to speculate that the rate had changed to 10:1, but the official rate remained fixed at 20:1.

>>>> I do not believe that this 7 must equal 10 is anything other than the weights of the coins. There is a small discrepancy, 7 dinars is .25 g lighter than 10 dirhams.

It appears that they are not fixing the ratio of the value of gold to silver at 7:10 Only the weights of the coins.

As for the "grand powers" wanting gold rather than silver, this is true, but it may be that someday, gold will be far heavier than silver.
Remember that "when lions battle over scraps of meat, small dogs do well to hide with what is in their belly".

I buy both.

a nation of one

(04/16/2003; 09:12:38 MDT - Msg ID: 101407)

They stick together.

Hoping that my posting privileges have not been eradicated on account of my 'financial obscenities,'
someone needs to point out the following. It is dirty work, but I will do it. The main factor supporting today's
stock market is whether the stock sellers -who are called 'brokers' but who in reality function primarily as
confidence men- are going to be able to get gullible workers to put their money into it. Nobody buys stocks
on fundamentals any more. Very few do so. Instead, now, stocks are sold on faith. Knowledge is anathema to
faith. And so, in a society somewhat like ours is, where the people ostensibly have access to education and
understanding, stock pushers, and others who pander on the basis of mere hope, have got to, 1) keep the
public as ignorant as they can, and, 2) try all sorts of ridiculous things to put the market where they want it.
At some point, as the veil of ignorance gets lifted, those whose sustenance depends on deceit ride rails out of
town, sometimes clothed in feathers. And they are not feathers plucked from angels' wings.

Econoclast

(04/16/2003; 09:59:17 MDT - Msg ID: 101408)

Gold is a stupid investment (please read on)

The thing is, that most Americans (I can't really speak about others) have confused the meanings of "savings" and "investments". Since I'm kind of preaching to the choir here, I won't go into the reasons that gold is the ultimate saving mechanism for one's excess productivity. It seems that people have been "investing" what they should have been "saving". After one's savings are sufficient and secure, that's when one should begin putting funds in investments.
To call gold an investment is to denigrate its purpose (in my opinion). It is so much more.

I don't post much anymore because the more I learn, the less I know.
The world is such a complicated place. Chess games on top of chess games within chess games. My small mind is not keeping up. To me that is a scary proposition. I know there are many, many humans who are much, much smarter than I am, yet I also trust my intellectual capabilities and perception to operate at a functional level in this world. I just wonder if the humans who are pulling the strings are able to discern the correct ones themselves in our overly complicated world. Every choice has consequences.

As I realize more and more how little I know, however, my understanding of the importance of holding physical gold as savings/protection goes up exponentially. It seems to be the safe answer against all possibilities.

MK, the depth of your posting/knowledge has been VERY impressive as of late. Thanks for sharing.
Belgian, I also would like to thank you for being such a strong anchor here.

admin

(04/16/2003; 10:29:34 MDT - Msg ID: 101410)

MKs Commentary & Review

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated with the return of an old friend, Short & Sweet. Go to the link. Scroll right. Enjoy.

Send your comments, questions, additions to MK for possible inclusion on page.

mk@usagold.com

Socrates964

(04/16/2003; 10:30:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101411)

Belgian

if I may dissent somewhat from your fine post, I outlined Japan Inc.'s business strategy, along the lines of:

'Buy bucket loads of our exports and we'll plough the money back into your economy'.

I agree that on this basis they are on a hiding to nothing with the US, since both countries need to devalue.

While the Chinese may hate the Japanese for the Rape of Nanking, etc., etc., they are sufficiently pragmatic to see that the Japanese are queueing up (like the Taiwanese) to invest in their country, so that this 'money back on your imports' deal fits far better with China's current priorities.

Also, the yuan is a prime candidate for revaluation. It thus seems to me that on a short-term view, Japan may decide that if it comes down to a fight between China and the US, they stand to gain more by siding with China (neither side need say a word, you just watch the trade figures/BoP), the rationale being that Japan may at least try and make a virtue of necessity.

One point which someone may be able to explain to me:

Japan runs a $20bn trade deficit with China that is more or less offset by a trade surplus with Hong Kong -anyone know what this means?

canamami

(04/16/2003; 10:45:07 MDT - Msg ID: 101412)

$US to Iraq - Victory in the currency war?

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1.htmUS Dollars Exported To Pay Iraqi Civil Servants
Wed Apr 16 2003 11:41:36 ET

As the U.S. turns from bombing Iraq to rebuilding it, the U.S. government is airlifting dollars from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to replace - - at least temporarily -- the discredited Iraqi currency! ..........
...................

OvS

(04/16/2003; 10:51:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101413)

Sir Belgian

Always enjoy your input. A day without a
Belgian post is a lesser day. But you are
totally wrong when it comes to your conven-
tional assessment of the Japanese. Along
with 99% of the Western World, you have
been duped by shallow misleading reports
in the Western press and duplicitous finan-
cial and official Japanese gov'ment sources.

Thus I started a lengthy reply to your
post when suddenly it evaporated into
cyberspace heaven.
I have to try again but have a pressing
obligation to fulfill. Until then, au
revoir, OvS

cyberspace heaven.

JemeJordan

(04/16/2003; 11:23:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101414)

Trading US Swiss Francs for Swiss Gold

Trading US Swiss Francs for Gold Recently I checked my local Coin dealer and he happened to mention that he gets a lot of foreign currency because he is located in a high tourist area of San Diego, He said he usually sells this currency at a substantial discount to the exchange rate because its not worth bothering with. He is selling Swiss Francs for .62, My idea is to accumulate Swiss Francs at a substantial discount in the US and then make Gold purchases in Switzerland. Any one has any thoughts on this strategy ?

Pizz

(04/16/2003; 11:27:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101415)

This is real encouraging. . . .

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/2953285.stmAccording to the article SARS is turning out to be the common cold on steroids.

If true, this disease won't have to proliferate that much to have an economic impact. When the cold and flu season hits, the fear factor will be enormous.

Who would ever have thought that a virus would come around that has it's own derivative with leverage.

Have a strange feeling the news medias will be backing off this story as things progress. We'll see.

Rather have gold in my bunker rather than paper. . .

Pizz

Belgian

(04/16/2003; 11:37:37 MDT - Msg ID: 101416)

OVS/Socrates

Mainland China and Hong Kong, still two different animals.
In China, less and less tolerance for japanese competition and not so yet in HK.
I am getting my perceptions from those who are exploiting the competition between China and Japan. China is outrunning Japan already for quite some time now and increasing dramatically. On this evolution, I put some currency (yen/rnmb/$) prognostication and favor the odds for China on 10 to 1. Japanese investments in China are welcomed, but soon "chinezed" (integrated).
Just go (window)shopping (volume and price/quality-wise) at home and count (balance) the "made in China" against the "made in Japan". Take into account that Japa-GDP=4xChina's GDP.
OK guys, where do I have it wrong ?

21mabry

(04/16/2003; 12:15:50 MDT - Msg ID: 101417)

(No Subject)

Beligan, i am about half way through Marc Fabers new book I would recomened it, If someone has an interest in the far east you should read this. Mr. Faber writes as a economis historian would he lives in Hong Kong and is very high on investing in asia in the coming years.

21mabry

(04/16/2003; 12:37:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101418)

JemmeJordan

Are there any tax or reporting implications with your plan.Would you take possesion I dont even trust a bank to hold things for me,I would never want them in another country. I dont want to rain on your idea it may work it just seems like there would be some goverment somewhere involved in the transaction.The shipping would be expensive, call the forum sponsers get there price on what you want to buy. Take possesion jemmejordan

Cytek

(04/16/2003; 13:07:02 MDT - Msg ID: 101419)

@ Pizz regarding SARS

http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/sars.htmHere is the CDC link to check out the cases under investigation or should i say in Qaurantine. The CDC also says they have sequenced the genome for the coronavirus believed to be responsible for the global epidemic of SARS.

TAke this with a grain of salt, but if it's true this could get interesting.

SARS Confirmed As Manmade - POSSIBLE BIOWEAPON

Posted By: Dr. Patricia Doyle
Date: Thursday, 10 April 2003, 11:46 p.m.

SARS Confirmed As Manmade - Possible BioWeapon
From Patricia Doyle, PhD
dr_p_doyle@hotmail.com

4-10-3 IRKUTSK --The virus of atypical pneumonia has been created artificially, possibly as a bacteriological weapon, believes Sergei Kolesnikov, Academician of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences. He expressed this opinion at a news conference in Irkutsk (Siberia) on Thursday. According to him, the virus of atypical pneumonia is a synthesis of two viruses (of measles and infectious parotiditis or mumps), the natural compound of which is impossible. This can be done only in a laboratory, the academician is convinced. He also said that in creating bacteriological
weapons a protective anti-viral vaccine is, as a rule, worked out at the same time. Therefore, the scientist believes, a medicine for atypical pneumonia may soon appear. He does not exclude that the spread of the virus could have begun accidentally, as a result of "an unsanctioned leakage" from a laboratory.

Patricia A. Doyle, PhD Please visit my "Emerging Diseases"
message board at:

http://www.clickitnews.com/emergingdiseases/index.shtml

Socrates964

(04/16/2003; 15:27:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101420)

Belgian

Actually, if you look at the statistics, Japanese portfolio investments dwarf their direct investments.

I don't doubt that the Chinese are basically very nationalist and anti-Japanese, but what I had in mind was more along the lines of: China replaces US imports with Japanese imports and in return, opens up its bond markets to Japan which would be a more or less captive investor (since the portfolio investment for imports is the quid pro quo). I remember seeing articles about how the Japanese retail public is pouring money into Chinese stocks, and I imagine that the Chinese are pragmatic enough to take a 'pecunia non olet' view.

Hence, lots of Japanese capital could be good for China, in that Japan will guarantee a deep and liquid bond market (and probably shore up China's banks into the bargain), and good for Japan (or at least better than simply handing money over to Wall Street), in that for a time at least, they can pick up a higher yield than at home in an appreciating currency (which, as I have said before, is IMHO the route China will choose when the world goes into recession and it sees that subsidizing exports via a weak yuan is no longer as good a deal as picking up cheap raw materials via a strong yuan and selling domestically).

As a more general comment, I see China emerging as a rival financial centre to Wall Street, since Asian and particularly Middle Eastern capital is likely to seek a US Neocon-free zone.

Max Rabbitz

(04/16/2003; 15:53:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101421)

Indonesia May Dump Dollar; Rest of Asia Too?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&cid=pesek&sid=anZbHuX9q8gIBy William Pesek Jr.

A few snippets:

Tokyo, April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Pertamina, Indonesia's state oil company, dropped a bombshell recently. It's considering dropping the U.S. dollar for the euro in its oil and gas trades. Indonesia's rationale: The dollar may be the world's reserve currency but it has become too volatile. ``One thing is for sure, the adoption of the euro as an alternative means of payments could be an effective solution to speculative dollar-oriented dealings,'' Indonesia's Vice President Hamzah Haz said last month.

One reason leaders like Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia favor the euro: It lacks a domestic agenda. Washington has proven quite adept at steering the dollar up and down depending on economic needs. In the early 1990s, a lower dollar was favored to boost growth. Later in the decade the White House favored a rising currency to attract foreign capital.

Since 12 countries use Europe's single currency, it may be less susceptible to unpredictable political agendas. Also, the European Central Bank, not politicians, manages it. In a perfect world, the Japanese yen would be Asia's preferred currency. Tokyo's active manipulation of currency markets makes the yen about as appealing as the Russian ruble.

Max: All paper money will always be subject to political agendas. That's why they invented it.

Pizz

(04/16/2003; 16:00:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101422)

Contrary Thought. . . .

Well, as the showroom turns (car talk for life is nothing but a real time soap opera), it seems we have a very small herd of investors and a larger preploria of funds trying to second guess the markets, trends, follow age old bits of wisdom (buy the rumor, sell the news) etc. etc.

What they are forgetting is that all these shell games which have worked in the past require a never ending supply of emotional investors from the general public to fleece.

You can tell by the action and volumes that the "marks" are becoming an extinct spieces.

The war fizzled, assuming we needed a real nice, controlled, and somewhat comfortable, LONG TERM conflict in order to keep all the fiat greenbacks circulating. It's almost as if the war was a bit too easy. Ever sacrifice a pawn in a chess game???? And if the chess game just happens to be the real war, and if it's financial (like I think), we sure appear to have been outsmarted a bit. Saddam??? Probably not going to find him either.. . most likely in someone's obscure palace playing financial chess with Bin Laden. . .

So what's next?? Been reading quite a bit, and now, since the war hasn't (and won't) generate a new bull market, and Bush probably doesn't have enough political ammunition to keep chasing the elusive WMD thru country after country, what new positive spin can we come up with?

My guess now is the political cycle. A couple months back I even said I was convinced that the markets may turn up cause Bush Jr. would not make the same mistake his father made. But if the pundents start jabbering about it now, it's going to turn into the proverbial "second half recovery" excuse that has and never will happen until everyone thinks it won't.

Gold appears to be ready to start another leg up in its bull run. It also appears that the PM stocks are going to lead the charge.

Gold over 400 and the HUI to have a triple top breakout at 155? We'll we have to get there first, but without the war in full swing, the dollar has no support. That is enought to push gold back up. The ever escalting SARS problem appears to be added insurance. If SARS is a variation of the common cold, logic says it will be around for just a bit longer than most would like. . .

What's a bit bothering to me is I think we will have some event that will push gold over 400 and for the HUI to bust 155. (the HUI is the one I am watching, because I have seen more tripple top breakouts than I have seen tripple tops). What's more disturbing is, if my senario happens, then someone already knows what's going to take place. Having the markets discount an action, which only can be proven in hindsight, has always been a little suspicious to me. A little like having our lives centrally planned with the news leaking out a bit at a time to selected players.

Just thinking out loud, and wishing I havd a bit more fiat to buy more physical. . . .

Pizz

OvS

(04/16/2003; 16:28:02 MDT - Msg ID: 101423)

Sir Belgian

Let me try again. re: your prognosis that
Japan will be pushed into a subservient
world player.
When the Japanese stockmarket started to
crash in January of 1990 it was a rude
awakening for the Japanese. They took a
big hit in self-esteem and in their pocket
when their casino market imploded,and another
severe hit, when the real-estate madness
fizzled. Suddenly, their grandious invest-
ments like Rockefeller Center, etc. didn't
look so smart; they retrenched, tallied their
losses and went back to their traditional
self-effacing ways.
Unlike in America, in Japan (as in Germany)
the stockmarket is not as all-pervasive and
not as important. Just a handful of the largest
US corporations' market value (Microsoft, Walmart,
IBm,etc.) is larger than the total of Germany's
and France's combined stockmarket value.
Yes, their self-effacing ways. For a decade now
they cry crocodile tears about the bad state of
their economy. Budget deficit. Bank insolvency.
But strangely, the value of the yet appreciated
by more than 15% during this time, their foreign
trade surplus reached a trillion dollars while
the consumers saved and saved.
What were and are they doing with all the money?
Upgrading their roads, airports, trains. Investing
huge sums into manufacturing plants and research.
Most patent applications in the USA are by Japanese
companies. Buy country-size tracts of land in Brazil
to plant soybeans that compete with US farmers. Buy
the whole Shiitake mushroom production from China
and distribute it around the world. Invest globally
in their wholly owned manufacturing plants that
compete with host country businesses. I just picked
up a bottle of sake. One brand was imported form
Japan, three other brands are made in the Napa Valley
by Japanese. Eventually, the Chinese will make Japanese
sake cheaper in China. But how long will it take them
to compete in capital intensive bullet trains, power-
generating equipment, sophisticated machine tools,
super computers, laser technology and the list goes on
and on. The Chinese are at the stage Japan was in the
50's and 60's when they made all the trinkets and little
American flags found in the dollar stores. Yes, and with
the Indians they are in the dress business, etc. To up-
grade to a higher level, they depend on Japanese capital.

Are the Japanese banks going bankrupt. How can that be
possible when the public and bank debt is a modest %age
of all private and public savings and the elite directs
both?

The Western press has painted a sorry state, aided and
abetted by the self-effacing play-acting business elite,
while quietly expanding their empire; the real-estate
has been hit severely but look at the Tokyo skyline: one
new skiscraper is going up after the other--they are
already getting ready for the next business cycle upswing.

Yes, some of their housewives (who control their husamnds
spending purses, have bought more gold (and platinum) for
"just in case", as every prudent family should do. But
the elite, while whining, is penetrating the Asian markets
as never before. Yes, don't feel sorry for the Rising Sun.
They have duped us all.

OvS

TownCrier

(04/16/2003; 16:43:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101424)

Federal Reserve gives banks $11.25 billion in booster cash

$8.25 billion were now-you-see-it-now-you-don't funds from overnight repos, and $3 billion were added through five-day repurchase agreements. The market in fed funds was trading at the FOMC target at the time of the operation.

There is no "meaningful limit" to the amount of new dollars that may be produced by the Federal Reserve and our national banking system. We will perish of overfeasting through political will long before we are overcome by a famine for fiat currency. Believe it. Protect your purchasing power with a prudent diversification into the king of hard assets, gold.

Call Centennial to stake your claim.

R.

Chris Powell

(04/16/2003; 17:53:02 MDT - Msg ID: 101425)

New commentary from Jim Sinclair

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1494Jim Sinclair, Tan Range CEO, says we're
"very close."

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Cometose

(04/16/2003; 18:42:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101426)

Red House over Yonder

In the middle of the song in the second verse in the second stanza ......the second time He gets into the " Wait a minute something"s wrong here.....This key don't unlock this door... ( this is the epitomy or the way wall st has trained the sheep in the financial world.....) ...then in the middle of some GUITar licks that bring an air of mystery and eeriness into the song and perhaps with the further effect of confusion , MR HENDRIX says " Something goin' on here......

(04/16/2003; 19:21:01 MDT - Msg ID: 101428)

Black Blade

We've had a number of calls at the castle inquiring as to the whereabouts of Black Blade (nothing like what we used to and still get even now on Another and FOA) but enough to necessitate this post. Black Blade is taking a break and should be back in the next day or two. I was looking at our "visit" numbers today, and discovered that "The Daily Market Report" is second only to this forum in the number of Daily visits. And it's no small number -- a tribute to the fine job Jon does with that page. Don't know how important "tools" are to you until they suddenly go missing. . . . . . .

steady

(04/16/2003; 20:41:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101429)

the dirham

where is the link saying the islamic mint is going to start marketing dirhams? where is the link saying they are going to use dinars? where are the public going to get them? can i get some now? where are these coins at> who has them?
the unit of account may be the dinar but the gold will be in a vault exchanged... what quarterly? so no dinar and dirham will be exchanging hand in the common market place. that just aint happeniong not now, not next week not next year. i have silver but im not holding my breath on the dinar and dirham in currency form to rescue silver.
maybe when the malysains have actually implamented there lil gold settlement program we can asses what there plans for silver apear to be.

OvS

(04/16/2003; 21:00:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101430)

Fickle 90% of investors (gold included)

Isn't the attendance record of forums and
conferences, etc. revealing, why only 5-10%
of investors are relatively successful?

A rising price and messages come flooding in.
A retrenching of the price and the messages
slow to a trickle. Basic human nature.

Counter this human feelings, act contrarian to
these feelings and the rewards are yours.
Easier said than done, so. Cheers. OvS

Waverider

(04/16/2003; 21:21:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101431)

Bravo!!!

What a great read here today and the past few days! Soooo...many "Golden Nuggets". Thanks MK, TownCrier, Ski and everyone. It's nice to see some posters whom we haven't heard from for awhile - Pizz, Leigh, RobotGuy, MaxRabbit, Miner, Econoclast and others. Belgian - you too had a break, and I'm glad you're back. BUT...where is SECTOR? Sir Sector - please join us again - your brilliance is missed - the forum is not the same without you...know that your chair is being kept warm by the hearth. Thanks to *EVERYONE* here for your contributions. Cheers,

Waverider

Waverider

(04/16/2003; 21:24:20 MDT - Msg ID: 101432)

Puplava: Market Wrap-Up

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmSnip:
"The Greenspan Fed is hell bent on reinflating the bubble in the economy and in the markets. Since the tech bubble burst in 2000 the Fed has been responsible for creating multiples bubbles in mortgages, housing, and consumption. Now the Fed is looking to reinflate both the economy and the financial markets. For those who are na�ve in believing that the Fed doesn't intervene in the financial markets, they should be reviewing the Fed's balance sheet. The Mad Hatter that heads up the Fed has been busy monetizing debt. In the week ending April 2nd the Fed monetized $2.6 billion in debt. Over the last year, the Fed has purchased over $67 billion in Treasury debt. Foreigners are also buying Treasuries. They now own $899 billion of our outstanding Treasury debt. The M&M's are still growing and the monetary base has increased by close to $50 billion in the last year. If there is deflation anywhere it isn't obvious in the monetary aggregates. The Fed is now in unchartered territory with monetary policy now becoming a grand experiment. It is becoming a battle on whether the Fed can win against the forces of a deflationary debt collapse without creating hyper-inflation in the process."

Waverider: Another good read from Puplava, but alas...without Black Blade's insights, commentary and humor :(

Black Blade

(04/16/2003; 21:27:42 MDT - Msg ID: 101433)

What A Week!

Well I'm back. I have been out of town on business and took an hour or so at the gym. I was somewhat amused by what silliness I saw on CNBC while on the road. Several stocks beat the street, albeit on the back of vastly lowered earnings estimates. The earnings seem to also come by way of cost cutting measures (read job cuts). This does not look like an "economic recovery" but the acts of desperate companies working feverishly to look good before new tighter accounting standards take effect later this year and equally desperate investment houses attempting to lure unsuspecting and tapped out (former?) investors back into the shark infested waters. Meanwhile the US dollar continues to look weak and is poised for a much greater fall. How can it be otherwise when current account and budget deficits soar to levels never ever seen before with no end in sight. The markets may receive another rude awakening when the expected Iraqi oil production increases fail to materialize over the next several months and tight energy supply becomes more of a worry as winter approaches. It appears that the old "Ant and Grasshopper" story will play out once again. The geopolitical situation could flare up again as now talk leads to Syria, Iran, and possibly North Korea as US policymakers grumble about these potential hotspots. And of course the threat of terrorism rises as the balance of power shifts in the Middle East. These certainly are "Interesting Times".

- Black Blade

mikal

(04/16/2003; 21:47:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101434)

Enigmas envelop economic environs(How did we get ourselves into this mess?)

http://www.etherzone.comLOST CREDIT?
RICHEST NATION FALTERING
By: Ed Henry
The Bush administration is not only facing the loss of creditability in the world of foreign affairs, it's facing a disaster in its line of credit. How quickly can things fall apart if the nation can no longer borrow?
The United States of America hit the national debt ceiling 56 days ago as of Tuesday, April 15, 2003, and there hasn't been a peep about it.
The dogs of war are one thing, but conducting an expensive invasion at a time when the credit card has expired and, for some reason, has not been automatically renewed can be disastrous. The implications are enormous.

Worst case scenario.
Investor creditors lose faith in U.S. Treasury securities. Not only do they stop buying Treasury securities, stop loaning the government money, but they cash-in what they're now holding. A run on the U.S. Treasury for up to $3.7 trillion in immediate repayment could collapse the United States of America overnight.
One of the nice things about U.S. Treasury securities is that they can be cashed-in at any time. Investors do not have to wait for maturity and can recoup their original investment whenever they feel like it. It's American taxpayers who guarantee the national debt, all of it. Are you ready to pay them back?
The burden of repayment would fall directly on the 138 million working Americans and other taxpayers. It would not be the responsibility of children, the unemployed, or most of the retired people. Happy-go-lucky estimates telling you that the tab for each person in the country is about twenty thousand dollars ignore or conveniently forget this. It's more than double that figure.
At a time when the U.S. Dollar is losing its place to the Euro, when we've got a large trade deficit and majorities in the rest of the world liable to boycott American products, this is definitely not the time to be forced into any sort of national debt payoff.

Second worse case scenario.
The Federal Reserve, an independent privately held banking organization, is forced into picking up more and more of the Treasury securities constantly being sold just to maintain the national debt level. The Federal Reserve already holds about fifteen percent of the national debt.
Mr. Van Zeck, head of the U.S. Treasury's Bureau of Public Debt, claims to be selling about $2 trillion a year in Treasury securities merely to replace those maturing at the rate of about five billion a day, weekends included. These securities are not new debt and sales continue while we're at the debt limit.
If investor confidence drops off and the Federal Reserve increases it's holdings we could end up with the "Fed" replacing the Treasury. Say "goodbye" to another big element of the Constitution.

Third worse case scenario�happening now.
Since the start of fiscal 2002, the Bush administration has borrowed $638 billion in new debt; $421 billion during the four quarters of fiscal 2002, and an additional $218 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2003. The Bush administration has put the national debt on its way "to the moon, Alice."
Since January, and under the direction of a new Secretary, the U.S. Treasury has been in a holding action on borrowing new debt that in smaller steps carried us to the debt limit on February 20, 2003. Since that date, the Bush administration has been unable to borrow new money from either investors or Social Security and other entitlement surpluses.
As a result, all expenses for the invasion of Iraq from that time forward, including the $80 billion just approved by Congress, must come from existing programs. It must come out of the fiscal 2003 budget's planned discretionary spending for education, agriculture, homeland security, and other programs. And this budgetary planning was unrealistically and irresponsibly inflated in the first place.
Having experienced a revenue shortfall in fiscal 2002 when the budget was $2.1 trillion, the Bush administration went right ahead with an increased $2.2 billion budget for fiscal 2003, finally approved about a month ago. And all indicators are that there's going to be even a greater shortfall this year. (see: "What Price War" where this is laid out in detail.)
Every City and State government in the country is feeling the effects of money taken from existing programs. Job layoffs and cutbacks in our own needs are felt at all levels while the federal government plans to rebuild foreign nations and conduct other invasions. We are supposedly freeing other people while depriving and shackling ourselves.
Obviously, once the debt ceiling is raised or done away with entirely (a proposal in the new fiscal 2004 budget) the Bush administration will continue its trip to the moon. We will quickly make up for borrowing lost in this dry period and money will flow from the open borrowholic tap once more, all at the expense of future generations.
Two big questions.
Why hasn't Congress raised the debt limit? With or without fanfare and political point making, this is a simple and usually automatic task. So far, discussion is not even scheduled. Could it be that the Bush administration does not have the votes?
If the government will not accept fiscal responsibility, balance its own enormous budget, and begin living within its means, not raising the debt limit is certainly one highly effective way to force it.
Secondly, how long will investor confidence hold? When do you think investors will realize that these securities are backed solely by full faith and credit in every taxpayer in the country and the people are just about tapped out? Will investors start believing that their money is not as "safe" as they've been told?
Paddy Chayefsky's "we're not going to take it anymore" is already coming to fruition. There are several movements to disrupt income taxes and the "We The People" Foundation questions its very legitimacy.
"Published originally at EtherZone.com : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact."

Waverider

(04/16/2003; 21:48:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101435)

Black Blade

Welcome back...I'll change that to a :)

Black Blade

(04/16/2003; 21:50:57 MDT - Msg ID: 101436)

Average search for white-collar job is 11 months

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/3828235.html
Snippit:

A new survey of about 7,000 white-collar job seekers in the Twin Cities showed that the average search now lasts 11 months and that nearly half of those queried had exhausted their unemployment benefits.

Black Blade: The story is similar around the country. I recall last week that CNBC's Bob Pisani said that when he would call up an analyst on Wall Street and would get someone else as the person he talked to earlier was replaced as Wall Street continues to slash jobs. Many people have simply given up looking for employment while others have taken lower paying jobs. Gone are the days when a IT professional could write his own ticket with signing bonuses and rapidly appreciating stock options. The airline industry is still in a steep nosedive and even with government bailouts possible, many airlines will simply crash and burn. Manufacturing continues to head offshore for cheap labor (Japan is finding this to be a growing problem as well). So don't be surprised when you enter Wal-Mart or go pas the drive through window at McDonald's and see a familiar face saying "welcome" and "would you like a cart?" or asking if "would you like fries with that?". In a word � "Grim".

Black Blade

(04/16/2003; 22:00:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101437)

Small companies too scared to hire

http://www.usatoday.com/money/smallbusiness/2003-04-15-jobs_x.htm
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO � Small-company hiring, which was expected to rebound, instead grew worse last month amid war and economic jitters. Just 1% of 555 firms surveyed say they plan to add workers � down from 6% in February, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) trade group said Tuesday. The last time it hit 1% was in December 1991. The darker sentiment reflects skittish business and consumer confidence, which hit lows in March as the United States readied for war, says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com. The mood of the nation's 5.8 million small employers is vital to economic growth because they create most new jobs. They also spend billions for machinery, computers and other equipment. The NFIB report follows a forecast by the Business Roundtable, which represents big corporations, showing that just 9% of members plan to add jobs in the next six months. Another 46% expect no change; 45% plan cuts.

Black Blade: Doesn't look good.

Black Blade

(04/16/2003; 22:10:33 MDT - Msg ID: 101438)

New York faces 'doomsday' budget

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2952615.stm
Snippit:

New York City's public workers have been asked to tighten their belts to help tackle its ever-present budget problems - and Mayor Michael Bloomberg has warned that far stricter austerity measures are possible. Mr Bloomberg presented two versions of his proposed 2004 budget, the outcome depending on whether the city is able to force upstate commuters to pay municipal income tax. If he fails, his "doomsday scenario" envisages the loss of 10,000 public jobs, the closure of zoos and fire stations, and vastly reduced spending on education, sanitation and the police force. The idea of taxing commuters is not a new one, but may still prove tricky. Until a few years ago, the state of New York charged non-city residents a levy of 0.45% on their income, which went to municipal budgets. And the state government has fallen on hard times, with an $11.5bn budget deficit of its own, so is reluctant to commit more of its tax revenues to the city. According to some estimates, New York has lost 223,000 jobs since the end of 2000, mainly thanks to a 16% contraction in Wall Street employment.

Black Blade: And it does not look to get any better.

Operative

(04/16/2003; 23:14:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101439)

@ mikal "richest nation faltering?"

Good find on that article. Fits in with some things happening tonight. The Euro shooting up, Dollar spiking down. US markets closed friday, I believe London and many others closed on monday. Is tonight the beginning of a 5 day strike of Shock & Awe in the world's financial markets??
This could get really exciting by tuesday. We watch and wait.

Operative

(04/16/2003; 23:18:42 MDT - Msg ID: 101440)

Blair Wants to Be President of EU

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-649651,00.htmlFor those who have been wondering why Tony Blair has been pushing for the adoption of the EU, here is your answer.

ski

(04/17/2003; 01:07:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101441)

Golden Nuggets ..... Speculation & Longshot

1. H. Browne "ut in the real world, speculating isn't simple ... Successful speculation involves risk, hard work, hours of study and humility to admit one's mistakes (and learn from them). Not surprisingly, these are the requirements for achieving anything important in life."

2. Jerome Smith "Truly outstanding investment opportunities occur only occasionally. In general, opportunities are normally long term in their maturation, and by careful study can be foreseen long before they come to the attention of most investors."

3. The last to see a new truth (paradigm) are usually the former leaders under the old paradigm.

4. H. Browne "A large firm may have extensive research facilities. But profitable ideas seldom come from amassing huge amounts of information. They usually come from independent thinking about the information that's available to everyone."

5. H. Browne "Normally, big gains are possible only if your opinion differs from the prevailing view. (However), Don't expect to make money just by being contrary."

6. A speculative opportunity exists anytime there is an immense chasm between perception and reality.

7. R. Prechter "The Elliott Wave Theorist's position has been that successful investing requires one thing: anticipating successful investments." (Said in a similar way .. (Anticipate where the money will flow next.)

8. R. Maybury "New dollars are always going somewhere and wherever that is, prices rise. That place is where an investor should invest."

9. J. Dines "A way to make money in the stock market is to find an area with explosive growth and mindboggling potenial; then investing in it as early as possible."

10. J. Dines "The fact is, to make real oney, you have to act before the crowd. But he who is first always LOOKS wrong, by definition."

11. R. Prechter "The early buyer makes the most in a bull market, and the early seller preserves the most in a bear market."

12. It is not necessary, or prudent, to invest 100% of your capital in search of a 10% gain when the same result can be achieved by investing 10% for a 100% gain.

13. You are only likely to get 1,000% returns over a business cycle in those investment areas that have already crashed and have hit bottom.

14. D. Dreman "NONE of us can escape the anxiety and doubt that permeates a crisis."

15. D. Casey "Make fear your friend."

16. D. Dreman "In a crisis, carefully analyze the reasons put forward to support lower ... prices. More often than not they will desintegrate under scrutiny."

17. Sellers make unusually high profits ONLY when they've had the foresight to make available to demanding consumers, a supply of items that few others have to offer.

18. Sir J. Templeton "Bear markets start at the point of maximum optimism and bull markets start at the point of maximum pessimism. We are close to maximum optimism (in the US stock market 5/96). There is an arrogant belief that things are going to go this way indefiniely."

19. A GOOD speculator looks 'where and when' nobody else does, to afford a better chance of finding bargains.

20. Being in the minority doesn't make you right, but it usually means that you have more to gain if you are right. In general, the market offers big odds only when your interpretaton differs from most other investors. When you share opinions with the crowd, prices will already reflect everyone's expectations.

21. D. Casey "Good speculators are always LOW-RISK speculators. Far from taking risks, speculators only go in for SURE THINGS."

22. Ski's thought: A GREAT speculator looks for 'REVERSE BUBBLES' (the exact opposite of BUBBLES or MANIAS) where everything that can possibly go wrong over an extended period of time (at least several years) HAS and the bear has fed upon itself to a point of hyper pessimism. These 'REVERSE BUBBLES' will usually have as a prerequisite, a capitulation selloff on high volatility and high volume. The still viable investment will be on sale for 90% off or more!

23. Long term forecasts that indicate a CHANGE IN TREND at the right time will NEVER have a widespread acceptance. The reason that such forecasting is dismissed is that by nature, human beings project the future linearly, not cyclically. A good deal of study, experience and practice are required to UNLERN the natural tendency and adopt the correct orientation.

24. D. Casey "The longer good times continue, the less likely bad times seem ... But the truth is just the opposite."

25.The Bank Credit Analyst "Major bull and bear markets rarely end without a substantial overshoot and a buying or selling climax."

26. Mania's kill the smart people partly because being reckless, fully invested, and highly leveraged are the strategies that reap the highest rewards ... not conservative investment practices. R. Prechter "The mania plays the genius for a fool and the fool for a genius, and then slay the fool for believing it."

27. A bull market (prosperity) dulls people's senses.

28. Watch for depressed (long opportunities) or inflated (short opportunities). In other words, look for GROSS distortions or anomalies ... severely undervalued or over-valued opportunities.

29. Look for over-reactions to political events for buying opportunities especially when you want to re-enter a market and are looking a dip.

30. As investment fashions change, the first tend to become last and the last to become first.

31. Bottom picking is a delicate art because stock prices often turn before fundamentals.

32. Watch for extreme psychological top and bottom indicators to alert you to opportunities.

33. Examples for #32 above:
TOP: greed, zealous, fervent, unanimity of public sentiment, elation, passion, fervor, smart move, highly respected, now or never, give in
BOTTOM: non-existent or zero optimism, dismay, disrespected, distress, it can't get much worse, dispair, unbearable pain, dead, fear, panic, wipe-out, give up, gone forever, irreparable, can never recover, not worth the time of day, death

34. Ask the common man what investment is most likely to gain in the future to find out what is overpriced or in for a fall.

35. If there is anything in speculation which requires courage and power of will, it is selling stocks at high prices.

36. When risk is high, it's better to be 'out, wishing you were in' than 'in, wishing you were out'. In the former, you are losing an opportunity. In the latter, you are losing your capital.

37. Leverage into any market at the bottom, not near the top. But keep some cash to weather temporary downturns.

38. When everything about an investment looks right, one can have some positions that are highly concentrated. Mark Twin said .. "You may put many of your eggs in one basket as long as you watch your basket carefully."

39. James Sinclair "The only way to make big money is to have the courage to put your eggs in one basket."

40. Stay with an investment decision until the price rises or the facts prove you wrong.

41. The longer the base building goes on the bigger and more dramatic will be the break out to the upside.

42. Never spend all of your investment money because other terrific opportunities may present themselves.

43. Ski's thought: Contrrians have much better odds of making money by betting against overbought situations versus oversold ones. Why? In oversold (bear market) situations, contarians can never be quite sure if the herd will ever recognize and act on a given oversold condition. In overbought situations, all bull markets will, at some point in time, reverse their course and fall.

44. Ski's Top/Bottom indicator:
a. No matter what the facts, circustances and prevailing knowledge of the day indicates, if there are NO MORE POSSIBLE DOWNSIDE RISKS AND THINGS CAN'T GET ANY WORSE .... you are at or near a bottom ... period. At this point, when everyone is saturated with fear, from a profit/contrarian perspective you should have maximum bravery.
b. As to market tops, no matter what the facts, circumstances and prevailing knowledge of the day indicate, if there is NO MORE POSSIBLE GOOD NEWS AND THINGS CANNOT POSSIBLY GET AN BETTER .... You are at or near a top ... period.
c. One qualifier .... Even if things appear as though they can not possibly get any better, un-heard-of and un-thought-of positive/negative surprises are always possible.

45. Ski's speculative, common-thread theory: All markets that go to un-imaginable extremes on the up-side as well as the down-side must contain at least one or more significant, pervasive, mystery elements that are impossible or nearly impossible to properly analyze. DOW: options and derivatives. Gold: leasing, market intervention Silver: COMEX, hidden stockpiles

ski

(04/17/2003; 01:27:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101442)

Golden Nuggets ... What to Buy and Sell

1. Ski's thought on what to buy and sell, "Buy the stocks of companies that promise to produce a stream of increasing future earnings. Or sell stocks of companies that promise ot produce a decreasing stream of future earnings."

2. Peter Lynch "There's no better tip-off to probable success of a stock than people in the company putting their own money in it." (The converse would be massive insider selling.)

3. D. Casey "It's usually a mistake to bet against an established trend."

4. The BEST predictor of higher commodity prices is a sustained period where prices are well below the all-in costs of production.

5. D. Casey "An old economy stock is historically considered cheap if its market cap approximantes total sales."

6. Steve Puetz "In a capitalistic economy, PROFITS (or the expectation thereof) are the most important factor to monitor."

7. Steve Saville "Very few people in the world purchase an investment because it's getting cheaper."

8. J. Powell ... former Vagas gambler "Never play another man's game."

9. Ski's Poor Pricing Paradox: "There are two distinct classes of investors that are prone to making the greatest pricing projection errors: A. rank novices (they know too little and are blissfully ignorant of elementary fundamentals). B. the most knowledgeable or the professionals closest to the particular situation .. (they know too much and don't realize the degree of mistakes that the uninformed herd is capable of.)"

ski

(04/17/2003; 01:39:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101443)

Golden Nuggets ... Debt and Borrowing

1. Steve Puetz "People do not borrow money with the intent of letting it sit in a bank account."

2. One persons debt is another's asset.

3. The worst loans are made in the best of times.

4. Eventually, all debt must be repaid or defaulted on. Period.

5. Saving will normally increase the savers future standard of living, just as borrowing will normally decrease it.

6. Savings represent postponed pleasure.

7. When income and standards of living are rising, past debt becomes easier to bear. During deflationary depressions, when wages and living standards decline, debt becomes an onerous burden.

8. Borrow only for goods or investments that produce more wealth (don't borrow for consumer or consumable goods.) Wise borrowing should pay itself off with the increased profit that it generates.

9. Paying down high interest debt is the same as earning interest or money.

10. When the government or anyone borrows just to pay the interest, you can be sure that the game is over.

11. Setbacks encourage reflection, ... success nourishes action.

ski

(04/17/2003; 01:45:18 MDT - Msg ID: 101444)

Golden Nuggets ... Bear Markets

1. The biggest daily rallies in market history in % and absolute terms occur in the midst of raging bear markets. They did not happen during the bull bubble period. Bear market rallies are almost always extremely impressive and compelling. Average bear rally length 1929 DOW 9 weeks, 2000 NASDAQ 6 weeks.

2. Adam Hamilton "Bear market rallies are confusing for everyone ... bull and bear alike."

slingshot

(04/17/2003; 02:14:54 MDT - Msg ID: 101445)

Ski

Holy Smokes, Did you go into HYPERDRIVE?

Slingshot---------------:0)

Belgian

(04/17/2003; 02:39:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101446)

OvS/Socrates/Mabry

Thanks for thoughts on Japan/China. We will watch, together, how the trade-flows will evolve and the impact on the currency (dollar-reserve) battlefield.
But one more question : What about the Japanese debt of 160% of GDP ? According to Murenbeeld, the trade surplusses to the US are the following: China=100 billion / Japan=70 / Euroland=80. Any conclusions out of this evolution ? Thanks.

Euro strengthening against dollar and POG in euro lost 13% from recent high. Let us wait and see where the ECB would like to have POG at the end of Q-2 when mark to market time is there. In other words...WHO is ruling the goldprice ?
The FED, printer of the dollar-reserve or the non-US, dollar-reserves in the (ECB) world's central banks ?

Are the outside-US dollar-reserves, inviting the FED to print abundantly with containing POG as a cover ? Is this a gigantic dollar-trap, set up by the euro-factions ?
Thoughts anyone ?

spotlight

(04/17/2003; 02:39:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101447)

Kitco 24hr. gold chart

Looking at the gold chart since early this evening, it would seem that there are two opposing forces battling it out.
With the world in the state it is in in every respect, I am very courios to know who in the world thinks this should be a very good time to sell/short gold. Does any one know who the gold bear is? Is there anyway to find out? Spotlight.

spotlight

(04/17/2003; 02:50:04 MDT - Msg ID: 101448)

gold price

Why is there such a difference in the gold price on this site from the Kitco 24hr. chart? Anyone?

slingshot

(04/17/2003; 03:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 101449)

Spotlight

Anyone who thinks that a rise is in gold price is not in their best interest and is able to sell short.
Who is the Gold Bear? Central banks and those who hedge against gold IMHO.
Slingshot---------------<>

michellec

(04/17/2003; 04:35:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101450)

Re: Kitco 24-hr POG chart

http://www.gcitrading.com/resources.htmI don't know what's up with Kitco as the last couple of days their 24-hr chart is lower than the Forex tick line (attached link) and another real-time site out of the UK. As of 0631 EDT the Forex tick line is at USD 326.8 yet Kitco is flatlined at 325.10. Click on the real time charts of the link I've included and you've can pull up a Java tick line of POG/USD/Silver, any index you like. My personal favorite is the POG and USD tick lines side by side. Check it out. Very user friendly.

mas

(04/17/2003; 04:57:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101451)

Hello Belgian

See Euro Gold Exchange, now below 300. 299 and change. So yes should be interesting to see where they mark to market. Somethings up!

Belgian

(04/17/2003; 05:08:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101452)

Gold-Backed shares considered for US/Suid Afrika

WGC - Chris Thompson, chairman of the council .

Is this kosher Gold ? I thought that there was already a Gold deficit of yearly 1.400 tonnes per year (offer/demand)!?
Why must there be another variant of paper gold ? Another derivative on another pool (stash) of non-private physical Gold ? Is there a growing demand for papergold and a declining demand for physical gold in possession ? What is the "practical" (not theoretical) difference between a goldmine-share and a gold-backed share ?

Sir Thompson (WGC)...can you...will you...are you prepared to answer these questions, please ?

60% of this globe lives under medieval circumstances and are TRADING/SAVING freely in physical Gold. Why can't the affluent do the same ? What is the difference between holding a precious piece of gold jewelry and a bar of investment Gold aka WEALTH ?

WGC-members, don't tell us you can't organize the promotion and sale of bullion bars ! You are selling gold jewelry, aren't you ? Why do you want to avoid Gold-Wealth in physical possession as a private individual's property ?
Will there be more people intersted in Gold when there is more "paper-gold" on the market ? Is paper-gold going to help the goldprice in its natural compensation for permanent confetti depreciation ? Isn't it exactly the tremendous amount of paper-gold that is "containing" the price of Gold ? Hello WGC...are you still there ?

Is Gold only compensating (risk-stabilizer) for equities...and not for CURRENCIES ??? This is the hart of the goldmatter, WGC !!! And it is here that you fail for God knows what reason.

Don't you find it extremely *suspicious* that Gold bullion Ltd. shares (Gold Corp.), most probably, will Not be allowed to quote/trade in the US ??? Why is that dearest WGC (Mr.Tuckwell)...WHY ?

How will the value of the physical goldpool, backing those gold-shares, be managed/optimized ? With another load of derivatives ? Will this gold be "used"..."abused" to contain Gold !? This can't be done when physical Gold is in the hands of individual Wealth-Owners, who prefer to hold Gold in private property.

What will happen when suddenly POG goes up substantially and the gold demand for shares isn't covered sufficiently, because it is not physically in those London vaults or completely derivatized (encumbered) ? Something gold-enronite.

Are your so called "big institutions", the only ones interested in Gold ? As if there does not exist a large pool of Wealthy *individuals* who would like to become Gold-Giants ? 100 Kg Gold per individual = 1 million dollar. 1,000 individuals � 100 Kg of Gold = 1 Billion $.
Tell me the WGC cannot find 1,000 such individuals who can be motivated to accumulate 100 Kg of Gold per year. 2% out of 270 million americans do hold 80% of total american wealth...confetti wealth that is ! 2% of 270 million americans = 2,700,000 people. 1% out of this group of millionaires is 2,700 possible Gold Giants (100 Kg of Gold per year)!

Amen.

OvS

(04/17/2003; 06:24:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101453)

Belgian re: What about Japanese debt of 160% of GNP ?

Good point. These are estimates and vary greatly.
Generally it is thought to be around 125%. Be that
as it may, this figures must be netted against the
immense government assets which are growing and
growing. That brings the figure down to 55% of GDP.
Compared to the 45% of US debt that is somewhat more,
but compare it to Canada's, Britain's, Germany's,
France's or Italy's and it doesn't seem to be such
a big deal.
Also you must consider that unlike the US, most of
this borrowing is done internally with only 6 % coming
from foreign sources.
By the way, from 1990 to 1998, Japan didn't have a
debt problem; it had huge surpluses.

I wish I had more of ORO's mind and memory and incli-
nation. I'm more generally inclined. Detailed facts
and figures are not my panache. But I do like following
detail men with interest when they know what they are
talking about and can produce facts on demand. That's
just too time-consuming for myself. I'd rather read
a book or play a game of chess. Cheers. OvS

OvS

(04/17/2003; 06:42:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101454)

Belgian, correct me if I'm wrong, but

wasn't the World Gold Council primarily set up
to reflect the interests of the jewelry industry?
If a low gold-price improves their profit margin
and generally, the lower the gold price the higher
their sales volume, why should they shoot themselves
in the foot by boosting the price of gold?

Topaz

(04/17/2003; 07:08:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101455)

Miner, Cor Tauri, steady....Dinar/dirham.

Thanks for the response Miner...as eloquent as ever. Rather than an "exchange" rate, please reconsider the Text as it refers directly to weight-size?
< Know that there is consensus [ijma] since the beginning of Islam and the age of the Companions and the Followers that the dirham of the shari'ah is that of which ten weigh seven mithqals [weight of the dinar] of gold. . . The weight of a mithqal of gold is seventy-two grains of barley, so that the dirham which is seven-tenths of it is fifty and two-fifths grains. All these measurements are firmly established by consensus." Ibn Khaldun, Al-Muqaddimah >
...I believe Sir Cor Tauri is also of this opinion.
steady:
Again I'm relying on an ever-decreasing memory bank re: these coins, but the gist is "you make your own" and trade them at a reasonable profit. As "your" Dinars/Dirhams (which conform to the specified requirement) are accepted in trade, the demand will grow.
There will be no "Official" Currency...maybe Quasi-official to get the ball rolling.
Sir ORO has had a close look @ the Malaysian System of "official" introduction but I'm unable to post the Link (the Other Castle as I recall)

Mr Gresham

(04/17/2003; 07:20:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101456)

slingshot

You're right: Ski has gone into high production mode. I tuned in this A.M. intending to get down to his ones at the bottom of yesterday's page, (also spotted miner49er and no time to read). Now ski has done it again. Yikes! Off to read...

miner49er

(04/17/2003; 07:50:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101457)

Topaz, CorTauri @ my blunder --- Dinars/Dirhams...!

Yes, yes Gentlemen... mea maxima culpa... don't know how I read that web site page on 2 or 3 occasions, and didn't see what was obvious (perhaps my "western" way of thinking...).

Thx for pointing out the error of my ways...

cheers from upover, ... (or wherever the heck we are in relation to downunder...) ...miner

Topaz

(04/17/2003; 07:58:07 MDT - Msg ID: 101458)

@Socrates.

I too have given up on the Index/Gold benchmark since the last round of "irrational exuberance" and for similar reasons. Three of the BIG Four Currencies are in lockstep, Ren/Yen/Dollar...the odd man out is the Euro. So we now look to the ECB to move Gold back to it's "comfortable" value of 320.
Sir Belgian echoed these sentiments in a post earlier--which MASTER calls Golds tune NOW?
Golds medium-term future is to be decided VERY shortly imho and for some inexplicable reason I'm leaning toward E/$ parity. The Eurozone NEEDS it as badly as the Dollar doesn't. Arm-wrestle time!

Belgian

(04/17/2003; 08:08:46 MDT - Msg ID: 101459)

@ OvS

Japan stockmarket is declining since 1990 ! That's 13 years in a row now. The Nikkei, at a 21 yr low, is the index of the second biggest economy in the world. Internal debt (160%) remains *debt* ! Japan's problem is the impossibility to reform "structually". And in Euroland we know what this means. Zero Japanese IRs for such a long time already, are a clear sign/evidence of catch 22 situation. There was a massive bank-run ( � la 1929) in 1997 ! etc...etc...

Let us suggest that we change the "G" letter in WGC in "J"...World Jewelry Council !
Promoting Physical Gold in Possession is political in-correct !?

Regards B and thanks for Re.

jenika

(04/17/2003; 08:45:20 MDT - Msg ID: 101460)

Forward Leases

As a newcomer to the gold market Im not sure if I have this right and hopefully by posting this some one can pull me up where Im wrong. Trying to understand gold leases etc Someone please tell me if im right or wrong.
1.Miner (ie. ABC company) advises its "dealer" counterparty (eg. Rothschild Bank) to sell 1,000 ozs forward for 12 months at this spot price.
2.Dealer immediately borrows 1,000 ozs of gold from a major Central Bank (eg. Bank of England) and sells it into the spot market: Dealer raises 1,000 x 500 = $500,000 cash and promises to repay the gold in 12 months plus the interest rate charged by the central bank on gold, usually called the gold lease rate or more legally, the gold borrowing fee.
3.Dealer's bank (eg. Rothschild) immediately invests the $500,000 onto the cash interest rate market to earn normal interest minus the lease rate.
Therefore, in 12 months time, Dealer can pay Miner more than the $500,000 for 1,000 ounces of gold because the Dealer:

Still has the $500,000 it raised on the 1,000 ozs $500,000
earns cash interest on the $500,000 of 7% $ 35,000
pays the gold borrowing fees of 2% $ 10,000
takes a bankers fee of 0.25% $ 1,250
Net amount payable to Miner $523,750

So, all Miner needs to do is deliver 1,000 ozs of gold to Dealer in 12 months time to receive $523,750 - an effective gold price of $523.75 per ounce.
The dealer recieves the Physical gold from the miner and repays the Central bank with it. right?

Reading from Barricks site, it is the dealer who takes out the lease with the Central Bank and the miner has no leases at all.
Im also on the understanding that because there is a shortfall in the supply from mined gold that the central bank leases help make up the shortfall in world demand.

So, what happens when/if the miner defaults on repaying the gold? My guess is that the Central banks will just extend the lease to the dealer, the dealer extends to the miner and they are all happily making a little bit of interest money.

So if the leases keep getting extended over the years there is no way in hell that the Central Banks will ever get their gold back.

If the above is true, then is it possible that the Central Banks had no choice but to sell off their gold leases to basically balance the books? Im presuming the gold sales that have taken place in the past have all been sold to dealer banks to clear up the lease agreements.
I have read that the forward sales at some dealer banks had gotten so out of control and were in such a mess this would have been the only way to clean up their acts.
I know when Australia sold their 167t of gold the Prime Minister used the arguement that gold doesnt offer a return and it was the wise thing to do .. get the money and invest etc. Course that was a lie, because the Central Bank was making money on the gold, through leases.
Please correct any mistakes, im just a newbie and still trying to understand. Thanks - its a great forum :)

Topaz

(04/17/2003; 09:45:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101461)

@jenika.

As good a summary of forward selling as I've seen...being curtailed to a large degree by the decreasing rate spread and Washington Agreement.
Sector (a fellow poster) and his associates estimate HALF CB gold has been sold into the Markets (16KT) and the concensus is VERY little Gold currently available, hence the plethora of Gold substitutes.
Welcome Sir/M'am...pull up a stump!

Au-some

(04/17/2003; 09:52:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101462)

Dollar Troubles

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&cid=pesek&sid=anZbHuX9q8gICan't recall if this has already been posted. But can't hurt if it has.

Snippet: Bloomberg Columnist

Indonesia May Dump Dollar; Rest of Asia Too?: William Pesek Jr.

Tokyo, April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Pertamina, Indonesia's state oil company, dropped a bombshell recently. It's considering dropping the U.S. dollar for the euro in its oil and gas trades.

...Last year's accounting scandals shook many Asians' trust in the U.S. economy. The view here is that little has been done to reform the system. News that a unit of Halliburton Co., formerly run by U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, already won a post-Iraq war contract has Asians buzzing about American-style crony- capitalism -- much like the U.S. used to complain about Asian cronyism.

...Since 12 countries use Europe's single currency, it may be less susceptible to unpredictable political agendas. Also, the European Central Bank, not politicians, manages it. In a perfect world, the Japanese yen would be Asia's preferred currency. Tokyo's active manipulation of currency markets makes the yen about as appealing as the Russian ruble.

For the full article check out the above link.
Soon I'll be copying and pasting like I know what I'm doing.

(04/17/2003; 10:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101463)

Sir Belgian,

The following question of yours of stirred some thoughts�

"Are the outside-US dollar-reserves, inviting the FED to print abundantly with containing POG as a cover ? Is this a gigantic dollar-trap, set up by the euro-factions ? Thoughts anyone ?"

I have the impression that euro-factions have set enough paper gold traps to topple ten superpowers. The problem is that no one wishes to pull the trigger because it is so dangerous. Perhaps, this is why empires decline so slowly. Previously, it used to take centuries� Nowadays, the rate should be somewhat quicker�.

History teaches us that the imperial coin is always debased. A military excursion here, a division sent there to suppress an uprising� Bribes payed to foreign officials� Costs escalate, revenues dwindle, coins debased�. So, I expect gold to appreciate.

OvS

(04/17/2003; 10:51:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101464)

Belgian

I'm glad you didn't suggest to rename the WGC
to World Jewelry Congress... :-)

Yes, Japan is a mystery until you understand
their mentality. Substitute "impossibility
to reform 'structurally'" with "refusing to
reform 'structurally'" but not letting on that
that is what they have in mind and you get a
bit closer to the truth.

Why would they want to 'democratize' their
country when down the line they see a socialist
and communist extension, which is totally against their social structure. They cannot imagine following a path that eventually will mean that their
daughters will be inducted into the armed
forces and fight perhaps the North Koreans.
Or, heavens sake, adopt a system, where one of
their untouchables would become Prime Minister
(untouchables = leather tanners, a physically
separate living community).

The Nikkei is not the index of the 2nd largest economy
of the world, it is the index of the stocks listed, which
is the proverbial tip of the iceberg and such very visible.
The bulk of the economy is represented by privately owned
businesses, which operate 'underwater' so to speak but are
doing just swimmingly fine, especially lately.

If you believe as more and more people seem to believe,
that the US government (and perhaps for very good reasons)
is manipulating the gold and stock-markets, is it
outlandish to speculate that perhaps maybe possibly US
agents are also trying to manipulate foreign markets?
I recall that Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and two more
worldwide stock-market operators tried for years to be
licensed to deal in Japan, finally were granted it and,
by pure coincidence the Japanese markets tanked within
a month or so. Later in the game they were officially
repremanded for their shortselling operations?
I believe Germans traditionally distrusted the stock-
markets and their word for stock-broker has more of a
derogatory meaning attached to it, something, a decent
honest young man wouldn't want to be associated with. But
the late mania changed that for a while, while nowadays
I'd be curious to know if that original feeling has
returned.
Needless to say, we are dabbling in visible shallow waters,
while the real powers wheel and deal in subterranian
corridors. Trying to catch a glimps of it is like trying
to nail a shadow to the ground...

Yes, there was a run on the banks in 1997, but unlike in
1929, with little fall-out. That was the low point for the
banks and they have improved their performance substan-
tially since. And why not? They get money and don't pay
any interest on it, while at the miinimum, they get around
5% interest from US Treasury bonds. A matter of clicking
a few computer keys. Nice business.

I love to watch this drama unfold. From my backseat in the
orchestra I am thoroughly entertained but cast no vote in
favor of any participating actors. But I do want to know
what the hell is REALLY going on. Cheers. OvS

Belgian

(04/17/2003; 11:15:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101465)

@ Jenica (Hoi) / Topaz

In *theory* , the goldminer > bullion bank > central bank, circus, can go on for ever...as long as enough mines stay open and bring some precious above ground.

Do we *all* really accept that central banks are that stupid as to sell and dispatch their physical gold-reserves (16,000 tonnes out of 30,000) with running the risk that the goldminers stop or decline their mining activities !?
I can easely imagine/accept that one particular central bank, would/could fall in such a trap. But how can one explain that these gold-exchange-reserves, possibly could be physically sold/removed up to 16,000 tonnes ?

I know nothing about central banking and am a complete analphabete on derivatives...but 3 years of research by many astute individuals didn't succeed in making me understand that these 16,000 tonnes of CB-Gold are gone into jewelry or private vaults. This Gold-drama (blessing) is so vitally important, that we need naked evidence and not pure speculation with a suffocating load of technicalities.

I repeat again : Those who seem so sure that 1/2 the world's central bank Gold has gone...are the same people who project a POG of 500$ - 600$/Oz, when this drama should become public, evidenced, knowledge.
In other words...if "official" CB-Gold is to be unloaded...Gold Holding has shifted to private hands and becomes a privatly managed Wealth Holding ! Now if you gain almost complete power over all the Gold in the world...would you start selling it at a maigre doubled price ? The remaining 14,000 tonnes of central bank goldreserves would be less than 10% of total aboveground Gold. CB Gold-management (containment) would be very strongly reduced. So my question remains...is there an attempt to "privatize" Gold ? Is this to be compared with the breaking efforts on OPEC-power ? 11 OPEC oil-producers, delivering 22% of daily oil consumption and holding a difficult to estimate oilreserve in ground.

Anyone prepared to help this gold-student ? TIA.

*****

Iran (65 million people) wants the POO higher ! Here you have it ! It's OK to liberate...but leave the POO alone !
Saudi Arabia remains death-silent !
BBC (UK-state) starts programming about China being an authoritarian state...also ! Blix-inspectors back in Iraq ? US wants to send 1,000 inspectors of its own ? It is the UN who has to decide on lifting sanctions and China seems to be pro-lifting ? Russia is not wanted by the US in Evian ?War is over or... start of the real war(s) ?

CoBra(too)

(04/17/2003; 11:30:02 MDT - Msg ID: 101466)

@ Belgian and All

Would strongly recommend reading Peter George's essay " In the Footsteps of Japan", over at the Metropole Cafe. Peter provides not only a great summary of todays state of affairs, it is also a clearly written outlook on this Decennium and a compelling plight for returning to the reality of real money - GOLD!

Cheers cb2

OvS

(04/17/2003; 11:44:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101467)

CoBra(too)

Is it possible to provide us with a summary
of Peter George's summary? Much obliged. OvS

Belgian

(04/17/2003; 12:22:30 MDT - Msg ID: 101468)

@ Ge / OvS

You both gave us some very substantial answers. It all comes down to the conclusion that we (the world) are being "ruled" as it has always been. This time, with the enormous difference that the world's media (BBC world - CNN ) have an unprecedentant impact on the "whole" globe. Soon there will be no pockets of free and authentic thinking, left. Amorfe and grey masses.

I'll continue to do some gardening with these (frightening)insights. Happy that on my little piece of land, I can do and leave what I want....ohhh holy cow...no I can't. Rules !!! Many Thanks, both of you.

Accumulate Gold-Wealth for as long as you can !

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/17/2003; 12:24:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101469)

Do you recognize the superiority of tangible property holdings over paper holdings? Don't be left holding an empty bag.

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Because the phrase "strong dollar policy" is sounding anemic.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.
How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/17/2003; 12:27:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101470)

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

The dollar has been continuously devalued without stop for the past 57 years. It has
not appreciated against goods and services once -- not even once -- in that entire time period.
There are periods when this policy has not been fully reflected in the price of gold.

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

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We look forward to your inquiry.

Black Blade

(04/17/2003; 13:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101471)

US pension plans fall into deficit

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1048313836395&p=1012571727304
Snippit:

The 100 biggest US corporate pension plans have fallen into a deficit of $157bn from a surplus of $183bn in 2000, says Milliman USA, a benefits consulting firm. Due to the sharp fall in the stock market and falling interest rates, many pension plans - including those of General Motors, IBM and Ford - lost money on investments at the same time as liabilities were increasing. The combination of events was "the perfect storm" for pension plans, according to John Ehrhardt, one of the authors of the report.

Black Blade: And this is a surprise to anyone?

Black Blade

(04/17/2003; 13:27:29 MDT - Msg ID: 101472)

NYSE probes trading floor abuses

http://money.cnn.com/2003/04/17/news/nyse_trading/index.htm
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The New York Stock Exchange is investigating whether at least two of the largest floor-trading firms may have engaged in trading shares ahead of clients, or "front-running," in a possible abuse of a central part of the market's trading system.

Black Blade: I have pointed out the problem of "front-running" by deep pocket hedge funds in the past, but yes, floor traders are quite adept at the practice too. I would suspect that several fund managers have personally benefited as well.

contrarian

(04/17/2003; 13:33:42 MDT - Msg ID: 101473)

belgian

Belgian--open your mind and check out these two articles if you haven't read already. It think you can learn more from what people haven't said than what they've said.

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary23.html#anchor19855
http://www.gata.org/Veneroso1202.html

Black Blade

(04/17/2003; 13:40:30 MDT - Msg ID: 101474)

The dollar disagrees

http://money.cnn.com/2003/04/17/commentary/bidask/bidask/index.htm
The currency market doesn't believe in the good news being spun by the stock market.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If it really is a brand new day for stocks, why has the dollar been drooping? After trading in lockstep throughout the year, the greenback and the U.S. stock market have taken diverging paths lately. While stocks over the past week have been higher, the dollar has come under pressure against the other major currencies.

There are a couple of reasons being bandied about for the dollar drop -- traders selling short and reports that central banks around the world are boosting euro positions. Both fall under the category of speculation, and in the rumor-heavy currency market need to be taken with a grain of salt. What's worrisome is that the dollar selling doesn't make much sense within the context of a rising U.S. stock market. According to the optimists, with the war over so quickly, the economy will be loosed of its shackles and profits will rebound, ushering in a new bull market.

Black Blade: Nice spin, but the horrible rising current account and budget deficits are key here. Not to mention that earnings on Wall Street are vastly lowered so that companies can easily beat the street and crawl over the lowered bar. It should be noted that accounting abuses continue and that many of the corporate earnings are the "pro forma" kind. Meanwhile the tapped out small fry are sitting on the sidelines while the deep pocketed institutions are desperately pumping and priming to lure the suckers. It is in effect only a mirage. Quite amusing really. I would guess that Warren Buffett is having a good chuckle.

Black Blade

(04/17/2003; 13:53:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101475)

3,000 more jobs to be cut at Motorola

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0417arizonabriefs17.html
Snippit:

Motorola Inc. said Wednesday that it plans to cut an additional 3,000 jobs, or 3 percent of its workforce worldwide, by the end of the year.

Black Blade: On a day filled with such gloomy news, Motorola does its part to add to the growing "Bone Pile".

BTW, I forgot to mention that the stock market is gaining today as short covering and squaring of positions are taking place ahead of expiry.

Black Blade

(04/17/2003; 14:01:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101476)

Pension Deficits Could Cost Firms Billions

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A42304-2003Apr16.html
Snippit:

Three years of plunging stock prices and rising benefit liabilities have thrown many of the largest pension plans in corporate America deeply into deficit -- a situation that will siphon away billions of dollars in cash and reported earnings in the next few years unless the market rebounds sharply. That's the picture painted by a survey released yesterday, covering 100 of the largest corporate pension plans, by Milliman USA, a benefits consulting firm. It is based on figures included in companies' annual reports.

The plans, run by such giants of industry as General Motors Corp., International Business Machines Corp., Boeing Co. and AT&T Corp., have been hit by "a perfect storm" of declining asset values and declining interest rates, said John W. Ehrhardt, an actuary with Milliman. Lower interest rates caused liabilities to rise because of the way their value is calculated, and falling stock prices reduced the assets available to pay them. The report shows that collectively these companies' pension plans went from a funding surplus of $183 billion at the end of 2000 to a deficit of $157 billion at the end of 2002. Together their assets dropped from 124.5 percent of their liabilities to 82.4 percent.

Black Blade: It will get worse of course as lower earnings beget lowered funds in pension plans requiring more profits to go into pension plans further reducing profits, etc. It is a monster that feeds on itself. Yet corporations are pleading their case before Congress to change the rules (go figure).

TownCrier

(04/17/2003; 14:02:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101477)

Chairman Greenspan says no "meaningful limit"...

Today the Fed added $7.75 billion in fresh cash reserves to the banking system, $4 billion through open market operations involving 28-day RPs and $3.75 billion through four-day repos.

Unlike the supply of promises conveyed by paper of all types, there IS a meaningful limit to the amount of physical gold available. Get a firm hand on your future security -- get gold.

"Get gold, humanely if possible, but at all hazards -- get gold." -- King Ferdinand of Spain, 1511

R.

Black Blade

(04/17/2003; 14:22:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101478)

Fund managers grow bearish on the dollar

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1048313813472&p=1012571727201
Snippit:

The extent of dollar bearishness in the market was highlighted on Tuesday by Merrill Lynch's monthly fund manager survey. Of the managers surveyed, a net 36 per cent said the dollar was overvalued, up significantly from March's 22 per cent. Similarly, the net percentage of managers saying the euro was undervalued rose to 19 per cent from just 1 per cent in March. Merrill said the shift in dollar sentiment was due in a large part to renewed perceptions of the risk posed by the "twin deficits" (fiscal and current account) in the US. Currency strategists agreed. "The US economy should improve in the coming months, but that doesn't necessarily mean a stronger dollar," said Mitul Kotecha, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Credit Agricole Indosuez. "The market is cognisant of the fact that there is still a wide external deficit to fund and a recovery would, in fact, mean the current account deficit could widen even further."

Black Blade: Agreed � except the part about the prospect of an improvement in the US economy. I guess they are "obligated" to mention something about an improving economy in their bearish statements.

BTW, I wasn't going to mention it, but what the hell. I see that humongous block trades of DIA, SPY, and QQQ have slid across the ticker today as the indices plugged higher. This is not the small fry getting in the market by any means. These are block trades of 150,000 and higher. It isn't necessarily deceptive (though the financial media spin is). Some of it is position squaring and short covering, but I suspect much of it is investment houses trolling for suckers. Kinda funny though as there is little in the current earning season announcements to have a compelling inducement for wide ranging investment from the guy on Main Street. As Warren Buffett said about the stock market � "There are few stocks that even mildly interest us".

TownCrier

(04/17/2003; 14:32:03 MDT - Msg ID: 101479)

HEADLINE: Gold gains before long weekend, palladium unwanted

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030417/markets_gold_5.htmlNEW YORK, April 17 (Reuters) - COMEX gold rose Thursday in thin pre-holiday trade, egged on as the dollar sagged, then holding gains as the U.S. currency rallied back and the Dow Jones industrial average moved into the black.

Participation was light before the Easter long weekend. U.S. exchanges will be closed for Good Friday and some traders were already at home for the Passover holiday.

"It's absolutely pre-holiday. The larger people are away, the people upstairs are quiet. They took long weekends," said a COMEX broker.

COMEX June Gold settled up $1.30...

...The euro hit a one-month high Thursday at $1.0997...

...Prices seemed comfortable in a $320-$330 range, enjoying good support this week from physical buyers from India, the Middle East and Asia, dealers said.
[Randy's note: Have you noticed how Americans remain conspicuously absent from the cited list of buyers? What do you think would happen in this thin physical market if American buying pressure came to bear?]

...May silver fell 1.5 cents to $4.47...

...Spot palladium hit a six-year low, and was quoted at $149.00 ... The metal, used mainly in catalytic converters, has dropped 36 percent this year as the weak economy cut into auto sales...

----(see url for article)-----

The white metal is suffering from the economic malaise while the yellow metal knows no such illness.

R.

21mabry

(04/17/2003; 14:38:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101480)

(No Subject)

Marc Faber gives a great explanation on how we can have deflation, yet also a rise in the price of commodities.I would highly recomend checking out his work.He even explains things so I could understand them

Cometose

(04/17/2003; 14:48:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101481)

Town Crier

Seems like everytime you note the gross increases in liquidity the FEd is -pumping into the system..... the Stock market follows through with a gross surge ......perhaps this is a prelude to the victory rally that hasn't occured yet....

Waverider

(04/17/2003; 14:50:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101482)

***VIP*** DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlSnip:
"Gold gained ahead of the Easter holiday weekend and a few Funds and Banks took long positions while the U.S. economy remains weak and as a result the U.S. dollar continues to weaken. The so-called "war premium" appears to have been flushed out of the market and investors are now focused on the economy and the dollar. The outlook is quite positive on gold as there appears to be little if any improvement expected in the global economy and the geopolitical situation remains fluid..."

Black Blade

(04/17/2003; 14:55:07 MDT - Msg ID: 101483)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/ngs.html
Snippit:

Storage Highlights:

Working gas in storage was 623 Bcf as of Friday, April 11, 2003, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 48 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 883 Bcf less than last year at this time and 598 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,221 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 346 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 34 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 236 Bcf below the 5-year average of 428 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 14 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 16 Bcf below the 5-year average after no net change. At 623 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.

Black Blade: Yep, you guessed it. Another record low storage number. I had the opportunity to discuss energy issues with industry people while away the last couple of days. The prospects of yet another energy crisis are very real and are beginning to show up on the radar again. Note the NatGas storage chart at the link. Also, OPEC will meet on the 24th to discuss cutting back quotas again in spite of pleas from the EIA and world governments. Meanwhile some are wildly optimistic about boosting Iraqi production to unbelievable levels this year. Don't believe it for a minute. These childish Wall Street analysts simply do not understand how the energy markets really work and all that must come together to just right for meaningful boosts in production. Iraqi oil infrastructure is a nightmare after years of neglect and lack of foreign investment. Even some reservoirs have been permanently damaged and will never be fully rehabilitated. Even Iraqi oil from Kirkuk to Ceyhan, Turkey must sit in settling tanks for a minimum of 48 hours due to excessive water contamination. It will take as long as a decade to bring Iraqi oil production up to par with the potential of the country's resources. Remember that every recession in the postwar era has been preceded by an energy crisis and the next wave will hit full force this coming winter unless we are lucky enough to have a serious economic contraction to kill petroleum demand (i.e. economic depression) and a cool summer as well as a mild winter.

Black Blade

(04/17/2003; 15:16:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101484)

From The Mailbag

A short synopsis of the more interesting news courtesy of Bill Bonner's Daily Reckoning that popped into my mailbox:

As housing prices rise...housing costs as a percentage of household budgets increases. Consumers pay more to live in the same house. Worse, the lumpen homeowners believe they can "take out equity" from their own homes as if they were spending savings. Encouraged by Fed governors and mortgage hustlers, they go even deeper into debt, while the economy slumps and they risk losing their jobs.

The consumer economy depends upon the ability of consumers to spend money. With stocks no longer rising, and jobs disappearing (it takes the avg. white-collar job seeker 11
months to find new employment)...consumers have had to rely on the housing market. Home prices are still rising...and each rate cut has given them a way to 'unlock' the 'trapped equity' in their own bedrooms and kitchens.

The latest numbers show the builders hammering up new houses at a feverish pace -- new housing starts rose 8.3% in the month of March.

But new home sales are lagging behind -- meaning, that the industry will soon end up with more homes than it can sell; prices will fall. Falling home prices will mean the end of the housing boom, of course; it will also mean the end of the refinancing bubble. All of a sudden householders will go to 'unlock equity' and find the safe empty!

And this from Eric Fry in the same letter:

The crude oil market, apparently, did not receive a copy of the "Iraq Vanquished" script. That's the riveting story about a superpower conquering a small rogue nation with massive oil reserves. The swift conquest sparks a sizeable drop in oil prices - according to the script - as investors come to their senses and realize that there are ample supplies of crude oil...

But the oil price is ignoring its cue, and is instead acting out a surprising extemporaneous story-line in which oil prices cling stubbornly to $30 a barrel. Just maybe, oil is a bit more scarce than we thought. The Energy Department reported that crude inventories rose only 100,000 barrels during the week ended April 11. Total inventories now stand 15.8% below the year-ago level. (Black Blade note: The API � the industry watchdog announced a 4 million bbl drop in inventories yesterday)

"Given that America may have a more difficult time keeping the peace than waging the war, we expect the mid- to long-term trend for oil is higher. Removing Saddam Hussein from power doesn't change a fundamental fact: the world is drawing down its oil reserves at a record pace. And, importantly, the Middle East remains in control of the lion's share of the world's oil supplies. Since most of the rest of the world is rapidly depleting its domestic supplies of oil, the world has become more dependant than ever on Mid East oil. The region's political instability is likely to make supply-disruptions a permanent feature of the oil market.

Black Blade: The fundamental case for an "economic recovery" simply does not exist. The economic data continues to disappoint and along with rising debt to new record levels and at a rate never seen before as energy costs remain high it is imperative that investors seeking to preserve wealth look to alternative investments outside the stock market with an insurance position in precious metals. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. It looks uglier day by day out there.

Clink!

(04/17/2003; 15:27:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101485)

Those new banknotes ....

http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/sptimes/This was an article in last Sunday's St Petersburg Times by Robyn Blumner. She is now a journalist, but used to work for the ACLU, and has written extensively on the Patriot Act and its ramifactions, among other things. I can't get a link for the whole article, so I have put a link to the SPTimes search engine which should allow you to pull it up.

I would have to admit that I am being blatantly inflamatory with the subject line - I don't know if there is any relationship whatsoever. But the article is interesting on its own merits.

********************************************************

RFID or Radio Frequency Identification works by using tiny microchips attached to antennas. These "smart tags" are the size of confetti and can be embedded in any item from an article of clothing to a Coke can, where they can be read by a remote reader. The ID numbers transmitted by the tags relate to information kept in databases that provide detail about the particular item. RFID is already in use in New York's E-Z Pass system, allowing drivers to zip through tollbooths. But this is just the beginning. Researchers at the Auto-ID Center at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology see this technology as revolutionizing commerce. As soon as it gets cheap enough - tags now cost about 40 cents a piece but are estimated to fall to below 5 cents within a few years - every item could have a unique identifying number and other information programmed into the chip.

.......

Think about the ways this technology could be abused: Marketers would love to be able to watch the way consumers use products - how often a particular sweater is worn or when it is thrown away, for example. By making RFID receivers as ubiquitous as security cameras, companies would be able to follow their merchandise where ever it goes.
And so would the government. It would be an easy jump to connect items to the consumers who bought them, and with that information the government would be able to track not only the things you buy but the places you go. There would be no need for faulty face- recognition technology. As one entered a public venue such as a stadium or library, an RFID receiver could determine who bought the items of clothing each person is wearing as well as everything they are carrying, and connect the dots.
The two areas of anonymity Americans still possess - in the use of cash and the mail - could easily be defeated with smart tags embedded in stamps and currency. Already the media have reported some interest by the European Central Bank in using RFID tags implanted in the fibers of euros as a means of controlling counterfeiting. And while there is no talk of this happening here yet, the notion has to be irresistible to the U.S. government, which has tried desperately for years to figure out ways to defeat the anonymity of cash. With RFID, the physical movement of each bill could be read.

************************************************
A good reason to want to use (solid) coins !!

C!

Trurl

(04/17/2003; 16:03:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101486)

Clink! - those new banknotes

All the more reason to "dry" all the currency you carry in your microwave. Those pesky mylar rf strips ( in latest existing US currency ) are also "cleansed" by this...

mikal

(04/17/2003; 16:09:34 MDT - Msg ID: 101487)

@Black Blade

http://finance.yahoo.com/m3?uWelcome back.
From your msg# 101474: "It should be noted that accounting abuses continue and that many of the corporate earnings are the "pro forma" kind." This is has very large implications for the dollar(on top of the moral hazard, bad precedent and social and financial effects). Resulting lower tax revenues and higher levels of Federal, state, corporate and consumer borrowing negatively impact foreign perceptions of U.S. bond solvency and stock values.
Among the many victims, the U.S. standard of living and the U.S. dollar, which also uses a biased indicator to express it's strength, the index. It can better be observed from the relative movement of the euro and swiss franc, today at 1.087 and .7234 respectively.

TownCrier

(04/17/2003; 16:39:54 MDT - Msg ID: 101488)

Eurosystem reserves over the past week

The Eurosystem revealed in its latest weekly consolidated financial statement (for the week ended April 11) that it has allowed the net position in foreign currency to dwindle by yet another 0.3 billion in equivalent euro value, letting the reserve asset holdings of foreign paper slide to 211 billion euro, the lowest I have seen since inception of the ECB.

It is telling that the Eurosystem is shrugging off reserve value held in the form of foreign paper while their value held as gold reserves has risen over this same time by over 23 billion euros in spite of modest gold sales by member central banks.

The writing seems to be on the wall for anyone willing to read. To wit:

"In the interest of clarifying their intentions with respect to their gold holdings, the undersigned institutions make the following statement:
1. Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves."
-- [Joint CB statement 26 September 1999]

Call Centennial to build up your own personal reserves.

R.

mikal

(04/17/2003; 16:51:40 MDT - Msg ID: 101489)

Re: Economy, dollar, tax revenues, spending

One of the most "interesting", and hopefully not tragic, upcoming events to watch- The solution to the "vicious circle", "downward spiral", cascade effect. The common forecasted description of the coming "perfect storm" can be summed up, among other ways, by this out of control action that feeds on itself- less spending because of higher debt means more assumed debt and thus less spending and less taxes meaning higher gov't debt and lower dollar and foreign investment and lower spending...down, down...Clearly a return to sound, fundamental practices will be needed. Innovations too, building on classic old forms like a high-tech, modified, alternative-fueled race car(wheelchair?). Making the most of a bad bargain, in the aftermath, will probably mean a new epoch.

Topaz

(04/17/2003; 17:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101490)

@Belgian.

...and a most happy Easter to you Sir.
As far as the 16KT goes, I'm inclined to agree with sector to some extent but feel the Gold defecit over several Years has been met from both CB's AND (to a large extent) the private Gold "investment" pool...ie: Fractional reserve Physical Gold accounts.
If you cast your mind back to "last Century" (I love saying that!) it's quite plausable that bright-eyed, bushy-tailed CBers, anticipating a Dollar world ad-infinitum (after Russia's demise) would have entered into these (lease/sale) arrangements to eke out a better RoI...only to rue the day as the climate changed. We are all mere mortals aren't we.
One things certain, the closer "investment" Gold products come to replicating Physical Gold in Possession the more desperate the situation is becoming...judging by the latest flurry of activity "certificate's backed by P/Gold in London etc. things are PRETTY desperate NOW!
...The time is fast approaching when a Man's lifes-effort- equivalent in Gold, will fit snugly in the palm of one Hand...
...but you know all this,
Regards Sir B.

(04/17/2003; 17:45:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101491)

ALL: Crude oil closes $1.35 higher at $30.55

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1048313835449&p=1031119383196Reuters reports that the strong performance in oil today has to do with Iran calling for stricter production controls, but there is another reason of perhaps even greater import. The Financial Times reported today heavy wrangling between the United States, France and Russia over development of the large Iraqi oil reserve. The article provides details too inter-related and complex for me to reproduce here. The article is well-written and well-worth your time.

Says FT in this article linked above (which I have also included in under Important Links at the MK Commentary & Review page for future reference):

". . . for France and Russia, billions of dollars are at stake. Neither Paris nor Moscow wants to hand the management of Iraq's massive oil industry to the US and risk denying their oil companies the opportunity to take part in the $40bn investment Iraq will need."

MarkeTalk

(04/17/2003; 18:52:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101492)

CRB Index jumps; Gold to follow suit

Today's stellar performance by the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Index of a basket of commodities is a harbinger for much higher gold prices. The CRB Index (cash basis) jumped 2.62 points to 234.08--thanks to higher oil, coffee, grains and precious metals prices. For some time, I have tracked the movement of both the CRB Index and the gold price, and I can say that there is a direct correlation between the two. For example, on October 24, 2001 the CRB Index bottomed around 183 and rose to a recent high of about 250 on February 7, 2003. This represents a rise of 67 points or 37%. At that time, the gold price went from $276/oz. to a recent high of about $385/oz. on February 5, 2003. This represents a gain of $109/oz. or 39%.

All markets have pullbacks of 38% to 62% depending on underlying bullish sentiment, supply and demand. Recently, we have witnessed a pullback in gold from the high at $385/oz. on February 5, 2003 to a low around $320/oz. on April 7, 2003, which is $65/oz. or 60%. This pullback fits the textbook definition of a market correction. It is my firm belief that the low in gold has been seen, and that we are now launching the next wave higher which will go well above $385/oz--most probably by the end of the year. Accordingly, I have to disagree with Robert Prechter (Elliott Wave Principle) who predicts gold will drop below $300/oz. while I agree with Jim Sinclair that gold is headed higher.

In closing, I ask the question: Who believes the government's inflation numbers when wholesale commodity inflation is raging at around 37% since October 2001? My answer: only those dunderheads who watch CNBC and believe all the Fed babble. It is time to wake up and smell the coffee! Even the government's own PPI (wholesale inflation index) last week showed an increase of 1.5% in March alone, which means an annualized rate of 18%!! But of course the Wall Streeters could not let that one go unchallenged and they began dissecting the PPI number until it reflected ONLY 0.7%, which is still 8.4% annualized wholesale inflation--more than double their original estimate. The bottom line: Gold is now rising again based on rising wholesale inflation (as seen in the CRB Index) as well as a falling US Dollar. Expect these trends to accelerate as we head into summer and autumn. For those clients of mine here at Centennial who want to discuss this matter further, call me on extension 102

GC

The Invisible Hand

(04/17/2003; 20:55:20 MDT - Msg ID: 101493)

The deflation monster � the Sky is Falling

http://www.iht.com/articles/93612.htmlSnips:
The economy is "basically in limbo, and the longer it remains in limbo, the more disquieting it is," said Frederick Breimyer, chief economist for State Street Corp. in Boston.
�
It is an "awkward" position for the Fed to be in, Breimyer said.
On the one hand, the Fed needs "to communicate it has more tools," he said, but on the other, "you don't want to have a 'sky is falling' message, because that could become self-fulfilling."
...
The last time the U.S. economy faced widespread deflation was in the 1930s, and the Federal Reserve's chairman, Alan Greenspan, and other officials stress the chances of "pernicious" deflation are small.
The Fed does view deflation as more of a risk to the economy than inflation.
�
Fed officials have said they would act, and act aggressively, before interest rates do hit zero or deflation has taken hold.
Economists say the Fed is clearly signaling it has learned from Japan's experience, where the central bank has cut interest rates to zero, to little success. - Andrew Caffrey (Boston Globe)

Gonlyold

(04/17/2003; 21:41:45 MDT - Msg ID: 101494)

Ref: Clink! - those new banknotes

It's also been suggested that the new notes should be treated for static electricity which may cause wrinkles in the notes and the color to fade by using a stun gun to remove the static electricity. (Ahem-m)

Black Blade

(04/17/2003; 22:58:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101495)

U.S., other powers jockeying for share of Iraqi oil bonanza

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030418wo12.htm
Snippit:

On April 4, five days before the fall of Baghdad to U.S. forces, a "secret meeting" took place in a hotel in London, according to a well-informed source. Present at the meeting were Iraqi oil industrialists opposed to the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, including Fadal Chalabi, who served as Iraqi oil minister around 1990. The meeting, whose main subject was the rebuilding of Iraq's oil industry after the collapse of Saddam's regime, was arranged by the U.S. State Department. The source quoted participants as commenting that although postwar Iraq should stay within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries framework, it should not be subject to OPEC-imposed production quotas and that international oil majors should play the central role in reviving Iraq's war-ravaged oil industry.

In the eyes of the United States, maintaining a grip on Iraqi crude will lead to attaining two key goals: securing funds to finance Iraq's postwar reconstruction and lessening the influence over the world economy of oil-producing countries suspected of having links with terrorist organizations. According to an energy industry source in Japan, the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, is keen to "deprive OPEC leader Saudi Arabia of its leading role in the world's oil markets." Some countries, including Russia and France, that struck oil field development deals with the Saddam regime, have been trying to check U.S. moves to keep their vested interests intact and are insisting their oil contracts with Iraq should be respected under a new Iraqi administration. Their insistence runs counter to the U.S. position expressed by Alan Larson, undersecretary of state for economic, business and agricultural affairs, to the effect that the validity of contracts concluded under Saddam's regime should be decided upon by a new Iraq leadership. Although the United States is willing to leave the task of oil field development to the Iraqis, Washington is believed to want to have a predominant say over Iraqi oil production by having Americans assume pivotal posts responsible for developing major oil fields of Iraq.

Black Blade: The games afoot!

Waverider

(04/17/2003; 23:48:38 MDT - Msg ID: 101496)

Russia frets over old Iraqi oil contracts

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ED18Ak02.htmlSnip:
"International energy experts are urging the United States to honor Russian oil contracts signed with the former government of Iraq to keep confidence in the stability of investment. Russian oil companies have reacted to the Iraq war with statements ranging from outrage to pessimism at their prospects for realizing contracts signed with the Saddam Hussein regime. Many believe that the coalition partners will invalidate the oilfield contracts in favor of their own national firms.

Last week, Leonid Fedoun, vice president of Russian giant LUKoil, turned the doubts into a threat, telling the daily Kommersant that his company would sue any rival for Iraq's huge West Qurna oil field for at least $20 billion. In 1997, LUKoil signed a 23-year contract for the field as the head of a consortium that included Zarubezhneft. The project could produce 600,000 barrels of oil per day, Reuters reported. Fedoun said, "Nobody can develop this field without us in the next eight years. If somebody decides to squeeze LUKoil out, we are going to appeal in the Geneva arbitration court [the International Commercial and Industrial Arbitration Court], which will immediately arrest this field." The case could last up to eight years. Fedoun also threatened to have tankers of Iraqi crude halted to keep from losing the $3.7 billion investment in West Qurna.

The remarks are indicative of the suspicions about coalition motives for the war and the size of Russia's economic engagement with the former government of Iraq. Russia's fears fall into at least three categories, dealing with access to reconstruction contracts, Iraqi debt and its oil contracts."

Waverider: The Operation Iraqi Liberation (OIL) war from the Russian perspective - they're not going to roll over, they've too much at stake. Will we see $35.00 POO this next month?

ski

(04/18/2003; 00:15:18 MDT - Msg ID: 101497)

Golden Nuggets .... For the First Decade of 2000

1. Ski...What will be the practical consequences of an inflationary depression be for me? To have any hope of grasping this question adequately, every major category of life should be evaluated individually ... cultural, political, social, moral, spiritual, investments, retirement, pensions, savings, real estate, debt, job security, psychological, militarily, travel, education, experience, etc.

2. W. Buffet "The mere fact that share prices were rising so quickly became the main impetus for people to rush into stocks."

3. In the age of instant everything, the conventional forecasting time horizon has consistently been shortened and is now only a few months long. Negative events of 6-12 months ago are simply relegated to the past. Forecasts are simply a refletion of present conditions and the trends that led to them. Everyone is growing shortsighted.

4. Ski's deduction: Due to the internet & other instant communications trends, both good and bad info will be disseminated and acted upon much more quickly. Time horizons will compress. Volatility will increase. Money will be made and lost in less time. Business cycles will shorten. Keeping up with the news and using stop losses will become more important.

5. D. Casey "For the 90'S .. First, keep what you have. Second, cut back your current standard of living. Third, speculation may prove the most prudent of investments."

6. Recession ... A period of time when distortions and misallocations of capital caused by the business cycle are liquidated.

7. All of the improvements of the last 50 years have solely been in the fields of science and technology. Meanwhile, economic, social and intellectual foundations have been crumbling. Most of the amenities we now have that make life better are products of the industrial revolution, and the attitudes that made the revolution possible are not widely in favor today. Psalm 11:3 "If the foundations be destroyed, what can the righteous do?"

8. No currency ever really gets stronger; it only becomes stronger relative to other currencies that are weakening faster.

9. Population is growing geometrically and agriculture is not.

10. For the first time, more Americans work in government than manufacturing.

11. As of early 1993, almost every basic agricultural commodity is selling for less than its cost of production.

12. As the govt. tries to prop up the economy with ever more desperate measures, the 'short term' will become more unpredictable while paradoxically, the 'long term' more certain.

13. There is a huge gap between reality and the public perception of reality. What people perceive is happening and what is really happening are quite different.

14. Economically or socially ... the things that sink your ship are the things that you're un-prepared for.

15. You cannot hide real estate, which makes it the most taxable of all investments.

16. Real estate prices are determined not by the 98% that are holding but by the 2% that are active in the market.

17. In real estate, the surest and largest profits will be made by owning something that the rich are likely to want.

18. The last people to become aware of globalization and the consequent increased value of their assets are the local people in that region ... the rural and unsophisticated who have never ventured out very far.

19. B. Dohmen "This is the century of Asia, and that's where you want to have most of your investment money over the next several decades." (Or in something that is "tied" to Asian prosperity.)

20. R. Maybury "I think raw materials will be to the next decade what high-tech was to this ... the new glamour industry where profits will be spectacular."

21. The average Chineese family saves (and invests) a remarkable 38% of their income. What's your excuse?

22. D. Casey "The single most profitable thing you can do year in and year out is to short."

23. D. Casey "Short sales should be restricted to stock promotions, stock frauds, and companies that are on there way to bankruptcy. Stick to companies on their way to the trash can even in the best of times."

24. The bottom line on bonds is that they're a triple bet ... on the solvency of the issuer, on the value of the currency, and on the level of interest rates.

25. While today's average bondholder is convinced that a poor economy means rising prices for bonds, history will reveal that on a larger scale, a poor economy means DEFAULT.

26. The present trend is toward quality and to things that last.

27. In the US at present, expect people to spend EVERYTHING they earn or are given by government.

28. The central thing to remember in an inflationary environment is "time eats money".

29. In an inflationary environment, STOCKPILING is the only sure way of maintaining wealth.

30. Events, changes and opportunities will come quickly. Therefore, attempt to anticipate future needs and move to meet them now.

Belgian

(04/18/2003; 00:27:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101498)

Arabian oil - OPEC

Saw Fadal Chalabi (Iraqi oil minister) on BBC-World hard talk. Iraqi oil must be privatized !
Add BB and Towncrier articles, and it must become clear to all of us now that, WOT is war on OPEC ! Don't mix this fundamental up with all side-effects that go with this war:
Israel's domination of the ME...mercantilistic/commercial ambitions of all sorts.

The US$'s dramatic weakness, does not want to be unmasked by Arabian oil in particular or OPEC in general ! Voila !

I do fear a rising probability of escalation on this main issue and a broadening of the conflicts, not only with Russia, but China too (Iran connection)!!! Watch Japan going nuclear and you have the ingredients for a war in the Far East...about ME-oil.

The whole world is going to become divided about what the appropiate price of oil should be and what is the worth of the currency in wich we pay for that oil.

Topaz: Happy Eastern to you, overthere.
Cobra(too): Can't find P.George's "In the footsteps of Japan". Can you post a synopsis, please. TIA

Black Blade

(04/18/2003; 00:31:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101499)

Iraq To Run On Dollars Until It Gets New Currency

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030418/0209000037_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The Bush administration plans to run Iraq on dollars until it fosters a replacement for the nearly worthless "Saddam dinars," The New York Times reported in its Friday editions. American military officials are paying Iraqi civil servants in dollars, and they expect to continue doing so for at least the next several months. But a team of experts from the Treasury Department is commuting to Baghdad from Kuwait City, trying to determine the fastest and smoothest way for Iraqis to have a new currency and a central bank to control it, the newspaper reported.

Black Blade: Oh sure, liberate them and then give them depreciating US dollars. ;-)

ski

(04/18/2003; 00:39:27 MDT - Msg ID: 101500)

Golden Nuggets .... Government Action

1. At the end of the 20th century, the main danger to your wealth comes from government.

2. Never before has govt. been able to exert so much control over the citizens and can now more easily operate in the "national interest".

3. Mistrust most public pronouncements by govt. officials, politicians, bankers and monetary authorities. In many cases, lying furthers their own personal interest or is done to preserve their own positions.

4. Confiscatory taxes, regulation and inflation all destroy public morality.

5. There are only four ways to raise govt. revenue: taxes, inflation, borrowing and confiscation.

6. All forms of taxation, inflation, regulation, tariffs, price controls, subsidies, unionization and special privileges are nothing more than well disguised, legalized forms of THEFT. In the long run they decrease production and competition and thereby lower everyone's standard of living.

7. Taxes, like every form of govt. action, cause distortions and misallocation of capital. Taxes induce people to act in ways they otherwise would not.

8. Someone receives each of the tax dollars the govt. confiscates from someone else. Or, for everything that is given, something is taken.

9. Regulations .... cause people to change their actions.

10. Politicians always think short term because by the time the long run comes, someone else will be in office or they can count on the fact that the people will forget who did it to them.

11. The govt. creates new money by selling its debt to the Federal Reserve, which credits the govt.'s accounts with federal reserve notes (dollars) at various commercial banks. In other words, the govt. acquires the dollars at zero cost and is able to trade them for real wealth at face value; the state benefits directly and drains resources from the private sector to itself through inflation.

12. With regard to ineffective laws, the laws will not change until some true crisis makes change imperative or unavoidable.

13. R. Maybury "Governments act rationally only after all other possibilties have been exhausted."

14. Like a boulder rolling downhill, it's rare that any downward (social or political) trend can be turned around once it's underway.

15. Whatever you TAX or REGULATE you get LESS OF: customers, buyers, sales growth, demand ... etc. Whatever you SUBSIDIZE you get MORE OF: poverty, home sales, employment (tax cuts), airline companies, cotton, defense industries .... anything!

Black Blade

(04/18/2003; 00:52:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101501)

Waverider � Russian Oil Contracts (msg. #101496)

It does appear that the Russian response is what one would expect from a sociopath. Here the Russian government and Russian oil industry helped to murder, torture, and abuse a nation of enslaved people and yet expect to be rewarded with deals made with the principals involved as if nothing happened. I find that rather amusing.

- Black Blade

slingshot

(04/18/2003; 01:22:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101502)

Ski's Golden Nuggets

Msg#101497Its nice to read all of those Golden Nuggets. The first one really stood out. I just had to wonder if this generation evaluated all that you stated in the first paragraph, would have a stroke. Even if they contemplated just a few would send them for some type of medication. Which brings to mind, What is the average age of the DieHard Goldbug? Is the POG doomed to flounder because of those who have been substandardly educated and thereby forever slaved to an imposing government? I congratulate those like Sweet Sixteen and Truthcaster who have stepped out in front of the herd and taken the Gold Bull by the horns. Courage Conviction Fortitude. But we need more of them. Or we may find ourselves talking to just each other of glory days past. I asked those who lurk in the shadows that are of younger years to come forth, so others will not feel alone. Topaz, Msg 101490 may have said it best.

The time is fast approaching when a Man's life-effort-equilvalent in Gold, will fit snugly in the palm of one Hand.

Slingshot------------------<>

ski

(04/18/2003; 01:29:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101503)

Golden Nuggets ... Personal Quotes

1. Maggie Thacher "The veneer of civilization is very thin." (barbarism)

2. B. Livingston "Self-preservation is the first law of nature. It is not immoral."

3. R. Maybury "The economy is not a machine, it is people. Investment charts, graphs and statistics give the illusion of an exact science but every investment forecast is, at bottom, an attempt to predict human behavior."

4. Bert Dohmen "The markets are never wrong. They reflect the supply and demand relationship of the moment."

5. Bert Dohmen "Locals in any market are always too negative at market bottoms. They know "too much" about the dismal state of events and don't recognize values."

6. J. Dines "Bubbles are invisible to those inside the bubble."

7. Bill Miller "Even Benjamin Graham decided his views by the experience of his time and became captive of that experience."

8. Benard Baruch "Success in speculation requires as much specialized knowledge as success ... in any other profession."

9. Benard Baruch "Buy stocks when they are low and sell them when they are high."

10. B. Dohmen "All of the best and strongest bull markets have commenced with huge upsurges (momentum moves). The greater the surge, the longer the demand will last."

11. L. Rukeyser "Stocks are the only commodities in America, were, when you lower their prices, no one wants to buy them."

12. S. Fraser "Do not buy the natural resources sector in November (due to tax loss selling pressure).

13. D. Casey "The irony involved in gaining knowledge on a subject is that the more you learn, the less you think you know. While your COMPETENCE improves, your CONFIDENCE ... will likely lessen, because more knowledge draws your attention to what can go wrong (and to what you don't know.)

14. J. D. Rockefeller "If you want to become really wealthy, you must have your money work for you. The amount you get paid for your personal effort is relatively small compared with the amount you can earn by having your money make money."

15. J. Templeton "Looking for a good investment is nothing more than looking for a good bargain."

16. B. Graham "Buy stocks as you would buy groceries. Not as you would buy perfume."

17. R. Rule "It is better to buy a great company at a fair price than to buy a fair company at a great price."

18. Warren Buffet "The single most important rule in investing is to avoid losing money."

19. Warren Buffet "I want to be brave when others are afraid and afraid when the public is brave"

20. R. Czeschin "The problem for most people who end up the victim of events if failure to properly understand (and prepare for) the obvious."

21. Gary North "No rumor should be considered true until it's officially denied."

22. Dr. Franz Pick "The destiny of the currency is, and will be, the destiny of the country."

23. H. Browne "You only produce or exchange when you believe it will lead ultimately to something you want."

24. Marquis de Custine on Czarist Russia "Oppressed people always deserve their fate; tyranny is achieved by a whole nation, it is not the accomplishment of a single individual."

25. Thomas Hobbes "Freedom is government divided into small fragments."

26. H. Schultz "In a real inflationary depression, the only way to keep fairly liquid and at the same time be invested with the trend is to short."

27. H. Schultz "It takes a special type of courage to look disaster straight in the eye and work out how to capitalize on it."

28. H. Schultz "Volume, in my opinion, is both the most important, least understood and worst measured factor in the stock market ... Also, ... prices tend to follow volume as a close rule of thumb."

29. R. Prechter "Market justice is the payback that the dependent person receives for abandoning his independent judgment to the emotions of the crowd."

30. Kenneth Tarr (pre-2000) "There is an event in every generation's lifetime that seperates people from their capital. We have not had one, (ours) yet."

31. R. Prechter "Ultimately, manufacturing (or tangible production) supports all wealth."

32. Ron Ellison "One thing we know about addiction is it's pretty difficult to wean folks off anything that causes great euphoria ..... In other words, it's very hard to keep them in the trenches after they've had a taste of gay Piaggi."

33. Ron Ellison "As the old saying goes, the public is usually 'right' in the middle and 'wrong' at the ends."

34. Bill Bonner "Unprofitable investments waste capital ... make people poorer, not richer. What causes people to make unprofitable investments? Loose credit."

35. Dostoevsky's spent his entire literary career proving that the major struggle in our personal lives is not between good and evil but between humility and pride.

Black Blade

(04/18/2003; 02:17:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101504)

Silver prices may up all over the world in next couple of years

http://www.brecorder.com/story.php?css=brecord.css&story=0000788575&m=007&s=002
Snippit:

ZURICH (April 18 2003) : Silver prices could be in for a big move higher in the next couple of years as a structural supply deficit kicks in, Thomas Kaplan, chairman and founder of Apex Silver Mines Limited said on Tuesday. Kaplan told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of a European Gold Forum in Zurich that the precious metal, also widely used in the industrial sector, has lagged the upturn in gold prices in the past few months, but he believes silver prices will soon follow suit. Apex, which is listed on the American Stock Exchange, is currently developing one of the only new silver projects in the world at its Bolivian San Cristobal mine and is in no rush to sell at current prices. "Right now, we are at the bottom end of the (price) cycle. We will sell our metal when the cycle has demonstrated it has turned," Kaplan said.

Kaplan was reluctant to be drawn into forecasting future prices, especially given the current volatility in precious metals markets. "We view current prices as very low levels and it (market) will move when you least expect it to. But it is a question of when, not if," he said. Not everyone is as optimistic as Kaplan, fearing that silver's industrial demand might be affected by a potential economic downturn in the United States. But Kaplan argues that silver demand is growing, supply is falling and world inventories are at historical lows. Stocks have declined by 74 percent since 1990, according to data presented by Apex at the forum, and are at a record low to consumption, which has doubled in the last ten years. Silver has a wide range of industrial applications, dominated by photography, but there is rising demand from the electronics sector, where it is used in circuit boards and cellular phones, as well as from water purification systems which use silver for its natural antibacterial properties.

Black Blade: I found this one for the "silver bugs". It should also be noted that US strategic stockpiles have been depleted and the US Mint "Silver Eagle Program" must now buy on the open market. Also, the treatment of wood products with arsenic will soon be banned and silver-based products are the alternative. The water purification systems noted above is an industry still in its infancy and will take much more silver from the market.

CoBra(too)

(04/18/2003; 04:05:38 MDT - Msg ID: 101505)

In the Footsteps of Japan

Here's the full essay copied from Le Metropole Cafe, though also e-mailed to Peter George in SA, if it would be OK to send it on. Mr. George was a broker and Gold mining executive in SA and still holds an option on SA Mining properties.

quote:

Summary

It is said that those who refuse to learn the lessons of history are fated to repeat them. In this article we discuss the future trend of world markets in the coming decade. To what extent can they be expected to emulate Japanese financial experience in the previous decade? This week, Japan's NIKKEI share index fell below 7,800 for the first time in 20 years � down from a bubble high of 39,000 in 1989. It has declined 80% in 14 years. Two years after the bear market started, Japanese property prices began to fall in tandem. They have since collapsed even more rapidly than share prices, off 83% since 1991, sliding six percent in 2002 alone. Those who seek to place property on a �pedestal of protection� in contrast to shares are in for a shock. Bricks and mortar are no less vulnerable to the effects of a downturn than equities. Whatever disease rots the foundations of an economy affects property no less than shares.

On a recent visit to Japan we were told of the case of one of the country's biggest property investors. Worth gross assets of $47billion a decade ago � against debts of $7billion � they are today on the brink of drowning. The value of their portfolio has shrunk 83% - in line with the average - to a gross $8billion. Debt still stands at $7billion. That leaves a flimsy net surplus of $1billion. The coming year could finish them off.

Why recount the story? Because the latest bear market cycle in stocks in the US, Europe, and elsewhere, has once again gone largely unnoticed by those invested in property. To date they have emerged unscathed. The danger is they think they are immune. Far from it. If domestic equity markets are down 50% in the past three years, expect property prices to fall 50% in the next three.

Holders of equities have already suffered losses but face a different risk. They may be tempted into ignoring the prolonged and painful history of Japan and fooled into believing the worst for their own markets is over. They will learn that the bear market tide is unlikely to turn �til valuations sink to the long-term mean of a 10 p/e. Before that process is complete, earnings themselves will shrink as the recession gathers momentum and the burden of debt service grows heavier. By the time that decade-long adjustment has run its course, the Dow could eventually target its 22-year ago base of between 600 and 1000. That would require a 90% slide from current levels of around 8300. Property will fall in tandem, but the bottom line is clear. It is not too late to act. Lighten up those non-core assets. Weed out your investment properties. Pay off debt. Rebalance your shareholdings. Focus on gold.

Why gold?
In a recent article headed �The Once and Future Money�, Bob Landis laid out the main tenets of the gold bug's creed. When viewed in the context of recent events, they explain why gold is set to soar. He summarized them as follows:

"First, gold is money. It always has been. It's the clear choice of free markets throughout recorded history.

Second, what we call money today is not money at all. It's just a rash experiment in credit expansion that has spun totally out of control. Like all experiments before, this one will end in tears.

Third, following the failure of the current monetary system, gold will once again play its historic role as the anchor of a successor system. The market will demand it, and the authorities will have no choice but to let the market have its way.

The presence of gold in your portfolios ensures that you will emerge from the collapse of the �Greenspan Experiment� in credit and printing, with your capital intact. Indeed you may clean up in a radically altered landscape. It may be kind of like the ultimate �good news-bad news� scenario."

We would make one addition to the above summary. Throughout the past hundred years, the extent to which gold responds to monetary crises has been in direct proportion to the size of the percentage crash in major equity markets � specifically the Dow - spurred on by the simultaneous collapse in currencies. Expressed in simple terms, if the Dow is set to fall 90% from current levels over the coming five to ten years, and the dollar and US bonds implode in tandem, gold could be entering a decade of sharply rising prices. Between 1970 and 1980, when the price rose from $35 to $875, it amounted to an average compound rate of 34% per annum. Starting today, should history repeat itself, the price of gold could climb to $6000 in ten years. If our logic is accepted, no investor can afford to exclude gold from his portfolio.

The compelling nature of our argument rests on the link between what happened to the NIKKEI in the last 14 years, and whether the bursting of the US bubble can cause similar or greater damage. Are there lessons to be learned from Japanese policy mistakes which will enable US Authorities to avoid a repetition? Specifically, can the FED's Bernanke realistically be expected to carry out his threat to �PRINT� his way out of deflation, without destroying the dollar and US bonds? If not, future US financial history will at best mirror that of Japan. Due to certain characteristics of the US bubble, which were different to Japan's, the final outworking of the morning-after experience could be far more painful. It could lead to a debt collapse of massive proportions, taking down not just equities, property, and the dollar, but the entire US banking system. At the end, even with modest printing, the FIAT money system could be in tatters. A return to gold-based money would then be inevitable.

2. Parallels between the US and Japan

American policy makers have sought to lay blame for the bursting of the Japanese asset bubble at the feet of Japan's central bank. US advisors have been adamant that if interest rates had been cut more rapidly at the start, the severity of the Japanese downturn could have been substantially reduced. They further suggest an economic recovery would have been long underway and that the destructive effects of a deep-seated deflation would then have been avoided. The fallacy in these arguments is that the Americans subsequently tried these tactics in the their own country and they failed. To paraphrase US economist Adam Hamilton:

"When real rates were healthy in 2000, the dollar was in a primary bull market. Then equity prices crashed and Greenspan launched his gambit. He attempted to bail out speculators in hopes of re-igniting the doomed NASDAQ bubble. The FED viciously slashed rates thirteen times in succession. It didn't prevent equity prices from plunging. What it did was cause the dollar decline to accelerate, sparking a sharp jump in imported inflation. The CPI took off, causing real rates to turn negative. A resumed dollar decline now appears imminent and will lead to even greater losses for foreign holders of US bonds. The implications for today's red-hot bond market will be profound. Widespread foreign selling will crush the price of bonds, leading to a precipitate rise in long-term interest rates. This could spawn a vicious cycle, leading to an eventual catastrophic bloodbath in bonds. While stocks and bonds suffer with the dollar bear, gold will be the primary beneficiary of dollar weakness."

The above analysis shows that US strategy has already failed. There is no free lunch and the Bernanke threat to print whatever is necessary to avert a Japanese-type deflation, is an empty one. If carried out it would so rapidly translate into a crashing dollar, as to be counter-productive.

The alternative to FED intervention is to allow the market to pursue its natural course. This will expose the US economy's weak foundation and the one area in which comparisons between the US and Japanese economies are totally invalid. It concerns the matter of debt � personal, corporate and international. While the Japanese were and still are a nation of savers, Americans have long since ceased to try. In the face of a recession, which threatens jobs, US consumers could panic and start to save. The fall off in spending would then be dramatic � far more so than ever happened in Japan. Debt levels across the board are so unsustainable, that the slightest slowdown could trigger a major series of bankruptcies. The impact on profits would be immediate and serious. More important, with so many overseas suppliers geared to satisfying an American consumer who is about to reach the limit of his available credit, the knock-on effect of an accelerating US slowdown, would have widespread international ramifications.

Greenspan's credit binge would be shown to have induced a massive international misallocation of resources. No amount of nursing would then be able to paper over a collective mess of bad decisions. If you build a luxury �Sushi Bar� in a ghetto you will never make money. The market is not there. In the same way, many of those Asian factories � built to churn out exports for a US consumer who is bankrupt � will simply have to close.

3. The cost of war

Unlike the first Iraq war in the early nineties, this time around the US and UK are financially on their own. There is no one to share the burden. US trade and budget deficits will escalate rapidly. In the face of French and Russian anger over mounting bad debts and lost contracts, arising from clandestine dealings with the �Butcher of Bagdad�, they will be in no mood to share the costs of a US imposed peace and reconstruction process which effectively shuts them out. If chasing the fox to his hole inevitably takes the war across the border to Syria, the conflict will widen, costs will increase further, and a rising tide of Islamic bitterness will dump the dollar as a reserve currency in favour of the EURO and gold. Developments such as these will accentuate trends already in progress.

4. CONCLUSION

US policy makers are helpless to prevent the coming asset implosion. It will not just rival that seen in Japan. It will substantially exceed it because the US boom was never just a bubble of expectations. It was far worse and had no foundation in reality. Everything was based on credit and the savings of other nations. Now all concerned will reap the whirlwind. After 14 years of grinding recession, Japanese earnings on the NIKKEI have shrunk 41% from 390 to 230. If the yen defies the best efforts of the Japanese financial authorities and starts to strengthen - from 120 to 100, then one day to 70 - Japanese export earnings will evaporate. NIKKEI profits will fall another 41% to 133. A revised 10 p/e will bring the NIKKEI down to 1300. In a panic sell off, the index could fall to 1000. No wonder the rickety foundations of the US economy entitle us to project a long-term downside target of between 600 and 1000 for the Dow as well.

unquote

IMHO, a very compact article of one man's glimpse of a future road, Japan has already travelled and the rest of the world may be destined to follow. PG also asserts the implosion of asset prices including property, the last bubble standing - a conclusion Bill Bonner also highlighted in yesterday's DR.

The only protection from the ongoing wealth destruction will again be gold. And as both R. Russel and J. Sinclair assume this secular, while the still infant bull market in gold has the markings of generational trend.

As I've already said, these thoughts closely echo my own conclusions and therefor the strategy I've been following since 1999.
Happy Easter to all - cb2

Belgian

(04/18/2003; 05:03:29 MDT - Msg ID: 101506)

@ COBRA

Thanks for making the effort of posting the P. George essay.

After careful reading, I concluded again that POG 's behavior since the last decade, is and must be, an * anticipation * on what is to come. Gold's "containment" has nothing to do with the (industrial) dynamics of offer and demand !

A constant *degradation* of financial/monetary/economic - life, is taking place NOW, at an accelerating speed.
Pinpointing the real estate bubble is indeed, forward looking. It will happen...is happening with a larger degree of evidence. The degradation will be complete on all fronts.

A lot of the past prosperity/expansion has been "engineered". Those same financial engineers "must" have embedded their golden life-jackets. No wonder that Greenspan, out of the blue, cites the past gold-standard.
What a subtle hint !

9/11...WOT...ME-democratization...etc, are elements of a plan/blueprint/roadmap. These events and the future evolvements are NOT a natural-accidental cascade of actions. So isn't the behavior of Gold (POG). That's why I strongly suspect that the so called CB-goldsales are in fact "reallocation" maneuvers. Gold exchange rate (reserves) balancings, between co-operating blocks of CBs.

Remember the Swiss asking their government, where the remaining half of their goldreserves were physically located. The Belgian suers of the NBB were asking the same question at Guy Quaden (governor of the NBB). Yep, sure...absolute silence and even indignation. How dare you ...and why, ask such a question. Subtle as may be, but simple questions must meet simple, transparent answers ! But this is NOT the case !

Because the global situations are evolving in such a way that "they" know..."we", the unsophisticated public, will land finaly at Gold's safe home.

In the past 3 decades we had many succesive crisisses...but now we have all kinds of different crissis in one go . Economical, financial, monetary, geopolitical ones...and on a global scale, all together at once.

And indeed, this can highly probable come together in a final, total, devastating dollar-collapse. This was never on our mind during any of the smaller, isolated, crissises of before. This time, the major drop that me cause the tripping over is the ME crises and its consequences.

Today, I feel very safe with the yellow in my fist.

Thanks cobra and happy easter to you and all.

TownCrier

(04/18/2003; 05:09:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101507)

Pssst... think about this one. Very nice coins.

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/current.html Centennial clients who have provided Jill with their email address have already received advanced notice of this. Sure, COMEX is closed today, but you can still call the hard working staff at Centennial to try to get in on this offer, or just pick their brains about a diversification strategy (including gold coin and bullion) that's right for you.

R.

silvercollector

(04/18/2003; 06:56:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101508)

Waverider, BB

Awesome posts on O.I.L. !!

What are the chances that Russian (& other) troops may march to Iraq to have a peek at their 'oil interests' ?

Have a golden weekend.

Topaz

(04/18/2003; 07:26:41 MDT - Msg ID: 101509)

Down-leg No2...about to pass into history.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Ctnxy%2Cfvxy%2Cgcj3.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=7&go.y=11Getting back on my T-Bond Yield hobbyhorse - you can catch a glimpse of the second of an anticipated "epic Triple Bottom" in Long Bond Yield just before it disappears off the chart.
The First was a mini triple in Oct '02... The Second, last Mth... and the Third, well, we anxiously await.
Both 1 and 2 saw Yields shoot to 5%. Mr G announced a 50BP rate-cut shortly after 1... mum this time (so far).
It's my contention that this Yield level is the LongBond equivalent of Zero and any move further south equates negative to Cash.
The ramifications will be unparalleled.

Black Blade

(04/18/2003; 08:05:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101510)

silvercollector

I somehow don't see the Russian troops marching into Iraq. They can't even keep control of a renegade(?) province (Chechnya) let alone tangle with a bunch of ticked off armed Kurds in the north and especially with a US military presence. The Russian bear has lost a lot of its teeth and claws in recent years and they are not the military force they once were. I suspect they may instead press their case (such as it is) in the UN for what good it will do. I think that the Iraqis view the Russians and French with suspicion and contempt due to their support and dealings with Saddam. Still, anything is possible and they may yet have some access to their old Iraqi oil concessions. Ya just never know - we live in a crazy world and stranger things have happened. ;-)

- Black Blade

21mabry

(04/18/2003; 08:37:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101511)

(No Subject)

Imho, I feel there is enough research out there to justify holding both silver and gold.In my case I hold both , just in case one makes its move without the other.In the words of Robert Plant I would feel like a fool waiting on the wrong block if the one I did not own moved without the other.

Trurl

(04/18/2003; 10:17:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101512)

Hall of Fame proposal

Hello MK and Forum --

I propose that Ski's various golden nuggets be assembled in a Hall of Fame entry.

Each of these quotes and observations speaks as well as a long winded sermon about the need for gold in everyone's life.

Do I hear a second?

Clink!

(04/18/2003; 10:54:34 MDT - Msg ID: 101513)

SKI for the HoF

You took the words right out of my mouth, Sir Trurl !!
I second the proposal.
C!

Tate

(04/18/2003; 11:18:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101514)

Russia - USA-Israel-Muslim Sates

Russia population wyse is only half of what it used to be under USSR and government budget only 1/10.
Superpowers never clashed directly, always through third party: Cuba, Vietnam, Afghanistan. There was always buffer contries between them.

For the last 20 and many years to come the most dangerous world hotspot is and will be - state of Israel. Foreign policy they conduct against neighbors guaranties only a matter of time before Muslim radicals or patriots (depends where you live) will acquire WMD like nuke bomb which they somehow deliver to Tel Aviv, hence WWIII.
USA and Israeli foreign policy perfectly plays for this to happen. Nothing is being done for one or the other reason to address roots of the problems.
In 1920-30 Stalin was quick to recognize state of Israel for one reason, so such state would not be set up anywhere close to Soviet Union. Even today there is Jewish autonomies republic located near Chabarowsk (Russian Far East). This is early attempt by soviets to solve Jewish statehood. As fare as I know not a single Jew lives there.
Very interesting times.

(04/18/2003; 11:38:45 MDT - Msg ID: 101515)

Ski's Compendium of Golden Wisdom

I second too. This is just the sort of thing we need in the Hall of Fame and what a way to re-generate interest in that forgotten corner of the Castle.
____

Marie, Gandalf!!

Where are those keys? When's the last time we had that Hall tidied up? Bring down the cobwebs. Move the dust around! Let's make a place for Ski's great lists.

What's that, Marie? You can't find the keys? Oh my. . .they've got to be around here somewhere. Let's find them quickly. I have a feeling that the last second will be coming up soon. . . . . . .

Randy, wake up the royal scribe! Oh no. . . you're not sure we still have one? On who's authority was he sent home? Mine, you say? Well, I don't recall that. Why would I send him home? I knew something like Ski's list would finally come up. . . . . . . . . . . . You say you told me not to send him home? What's that about a 'bone-pile'? What's a 'bone-pile?'. . . .

Voice fade down the stone corridor. . . . .toward the Hall of Fame.

Waverider

(04/18/2003; 11:48:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101516)

North Korea 'Successfully Reprocessing' Fuel Rods

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A50460-2003Apr18.htmlSnip:
"North Korea today said it has begun reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods, challenging the United States with a new crisis just days after the communist state agreed to negotiate over its nuclear program next week in China. Reprocessed fuel can be used to make nuclear weapons.

"The Iraqi war teaches a lesson that in order to prevent a war and defend the security of a country and the sovereignty of a nation, it is necessary to have a powerful physical deterrent force only," the statement said. "As we have already declared, we are successfully reprocessing more than 8,000 spent fuel rods at the final phase, as we sent interim information to the U.S. and other countries concerned early in March after resuming our nuclear activities from December last year."

The surprise announcement took North Korea across an unofficial threshold much discussed in Washington. Some in the Bush administration have argued in the past that military action should be the response if North Korea reprocesses the fuel. North Korea and the United States confirmed this week they would begin negotiations on the nuclear issue with China in Beijing Wednesday, but the announcement today from the North Korean capital Pyongyang puts those talks into question."

Waverider: We've finally seen the POG blow off the Iraqi war premium, we could see the start of another if talks don't go smoothly or go at all next week in Beijing.

mikal

(04/18/2003; 11:50:42 MDT - Msg ID: 101517)

@MK

Can you display hyperlinks on your homepage for the Haiku's and the Hall of Fame? Thank you.

Waverider

(04/18/2003; 11:52:09 MDT - Msg ID: 101518)

Ski's Compendium of Golden Wisdom

Yes - my pleasure to provide the last second...

mikal

(04/18/2003; 12:10:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101519)

@Belgium

Re: "...POG's behavior since the last decade, is and must be, an anticipation of what is to come." I agree, and as you say, supply and demand issues haves been bypassed.
Re: "A lot of the past prosperity/expansion has been "engineered". Those same financial engineers "must" have embedded their golden life-jackets." Do you think this very "engineering" will within a decade or generation's time, return to distort the economy again? There seems to be a contradiction between those who foresee imminent gold-backed/linked U.S. and other world currencies and subsequent stability or recovery versus those who see gold's price overextended, such as some of Ski's commodities nuggets would imply- the bubble at the of a repeating cycle that so many are betting(banking?) will occur. And would those "financial engineers" then sell their "golden life-jackets"?

mikal

(04/18/2003; 12:15:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101520)

Correction

Second to last line should read: "...-the bubble at the END of a repeating cycle that so many are betting(banking?) on."

Old Yeller

(04/18/2003; 12:49:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101521)

An idea from left field

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1048313833404&p=1012571727285
Why not use the euro as Iraq's new currency?

Seems they need a stable unit of account,after years
of monetary skullduggery from an obtrusive'self-interested
Central Bank.Don't think they'll get that from the Federal
Reserve and the magical FRN that their conquerers are offering up.

Meet the new boss'same as the old boss.

TownCrier

(04/18/2003; 13:35:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101522)

Heading to the Hall of Fame with toolbox and paintbrush in hand...

http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.htmlThanks, Ski, for sharing a body of work deemed by your peers as timeless and worthy of special display in this gilded reading room of our Archives. Even as we speak I am bringin in another couch and hanging another shelf on the wall.

Note to mikal: you can always find the "Hall of Fame link at the top of this Forum page, two links over to the right from the "Post a New Message" link.

If you then scroll down through the index of posts, you will come upon a stack of several yellowish boxes, the top of which contains the compilation of our haikus.

I will take your suggestion of adding the Hall link to the Homepage under advisement.

R.

JemeJordan

(04/18/2003; 13:35:30 MDT - Msg ID: 101523)

US: $58 Billion Budget Shortfall in March

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20030418&ID=2475318Can anyone say US Dollar devaluation?

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/18/2003; 13:40:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101524)

Attention USAGOLD-CPM, Inc. valued clientele and visitors!

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/current.htmlUSAGOLD-CPM, Inc. has recently instituted a program to notify interested parties of breaking news, web site updates and special offers.

If you would like to receive this periodic correspondence via electronic mail, please contact jill@usagold.com to provide your name and preferred e-mail address.

If you are a current client of USAGOLD-CPM, Inc., this opportunity is especially important as you qualify to receive precedent notification of any special offers made by our firm, namely exclusive early access to our monthly buyers' groups and first notification of unique product availability. [For example, see the Buyers' Group link provided above.]

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PS. You can always opt out again at any time you choose.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/18/2003; 13:48:45 MDT - Msg ID: 101525)

Common sense investing for common and uncommon times... $5.95

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Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Mr Gresham

(04/18/2003; 13:59:27 MDT - Msg ID: 101526)

Ski HOF

Oh good! I just got here, but that was the first thing I thought of this morning, and then I couldn't get online to say it. It's great to see quality recognized (plus have Ski's wisdoms available when I want to read them again -- and again.)

R Powell

(04/18/2003; 14:32:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101527)

Hey Ski, Congratulations.....

Cooperstown at last! Hall of Fame. Cool !

Black Blade, post 101504, Odin, Thor and I all thank you for keeping an eagle eye open for any news related to the metal of the moon. I should have some Silver Survey numbers to share within a few weeks. I'm guessing that Chinese silver filled a good part of 2002's deficit but will wait for a more knowledgeable confirmation.

On the economic front, the concrete construction business (homebuilding) in southeastern Massachusetts has emerged unusually strong after the coldest winter in memory. Also, house prices are still rising at an alarming rate.

Calendar news: It's Friday !!!
Happy weekend
Rich

Tate

(04/18/2003; 14:44:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101528)

North Korea 'Successfully Reprocessing' Fuel Rods

Very significant event. N. Korea is a stubborn dictatorship. I think Americans learned that dictators respect only baseball bat type negotiation. Looks like imminent aerial strike at N.Koreas nuke research facilties.
What would response from NK and Russia be? Scary. Go long gold.

R Powell

(04/18/2003; 15:01:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101529)

MarkeTalk // anyone else interested

I just saw your 101492 from yesterday ( you Westerners often speak only after I've entered sleep mode).
I'll agree 100% with that CRB/POG link and have been watching it for several years now. Many analysts use the CRB instead of other government altered gauges for signs of price inflation. We use Randy's reports to confirm the ongoing monetary inflation. I wonder if any overtime will be necessary for the Fed's printing presses to liquify Iraq with greenbacks? Will Iraq buy greenbacks with paper debt the way the Treasury does?

The price movements of silver often seem to defy any technical predictions other than trend following buying and selling by the big speculative fund money. At least, I have no technical insights on silver. Have you any? Also, given your unique view of the markets, can you (at your leisure) update us on any news or opinions, especially the availability of silver and the opinions you encounter while buying and selling truckloads of gold and silver for CPM?
Thanks
Rich

R Powell

(04/18/2003; 15:26:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101530)

COT numbers as of 4/8/03

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm The big (nonproducers/nonusers) gamblers are still almost flat, actually very slightly short. The Commercials are short offset by the small specs who are still long.

Short of some real fundamental silver news (endangered species), I'm guessing that the short-term price of silver may be determined by how tenaciously the small guys hold onto those longs. I wonder about how many of those contracts listed under Commercial are really such, as in legitimate hedging. Does anyone know how the exchange determines who should be listed as a commercial as opposed to a non-commercial. I know what the distinction is SUPPOSED to be, but how do the reporters of these COT reports decide who is a hedger and who is not?? Do the players simply declare their "party"? I've never filled out a form declaring myself as a "Nonreportable".
Happy weekend
Rich

Goldilox

(04/18/2003; 15:32:04 MDT - Msg ID: 101532)

Reportable trades

@Rich

Good question. I know when I open a trading account, they ask me if I am a director of a publicly held company or a broker of securities. I hope they use more detailed information than this flimsy declaration.

Black Blade

(04/18/2003; 15:33:09 MDT - Msg ID: 101533)

Exit Of 'Discouraged Workers' Helps Cut Pa. Unemployment

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030418/1120000200_1.html
Snippit:

PHILADELPHIA (Dow Jones)--The exit of 28,000 "discouraged workers" from Pennsylvania's civilian labor force helped nudge the state's unemployment rate down to 5.8% last month, the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry said Friday. So-called discouraged workers have been unable to find work and eventually stop looking, so the government no longer calculates them into the unemployment rate. While the unemployment rate declined slightly from February to March, it rose year over year.

Black Blade: The games government statisticians play. The "exit" of "discouraged workers" is a big issue and another is "under-employment". Though the "official" unemployment rate is at 5.8%, many estimate the "real" unemployment rate between 11% and 12%. That figure may have adjusted as it is about two or three months old. I suspect that there are others who are biding their time until the employment and business picture improves. Some are just living off of savings or investment income (like myself) until business picks up. There are many who simply did not qualify for unemployment benefits because they were self-employed or contract workers and are not counted in the "official" rate. I would hope that John Crudele (New York Post) or one of the others who follow this issue revisit it again. It is interesting how the government agencies gloss over data to pass on a "misleading" or "deceptive" picture to the masses.

This earnings season so far we see Corporate earnings are outright dismal and the negative earnings outlook (warnings) have risen to 54% this quarter from 38% last quarter. Many if not most of companies reporting earnings improvement are doind so through "cost-cutting" (read job losses). The "Bone Pile" will continue to grow even if most the the "bones" are buried under dubious government statistics. It should be interesting to see how the employment data is adjusted when US troops (Reserves and National Guard) return home from their most recent "tour". By law they will ave their old jobs waiting and any temp replacements will be shown the exits. Over all a "grim" picture with little "real" improvement expected.

Aristotle

(04/18/2003; 15:34:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101534)

Perspective boys and girls, perspective! ! !

http://news.nasdaq.com/news/newsStory.aspx?&cpath=20030418\ACQDJON200304181444DOWJONESDJONLINE000234.htmI found this gem among the headlines on USAGOLD's great news wire after a quick readthrough of Black Blade's lovely report. I want you to consider this...

While the Iraq National Museum in Baghdad filled with irreplaceable historic relics significant to all of mankind was allowed to be plundered to exhaustion because it was too low on the list of operational priorities, a pile of lustruous Yellow Metal Bars and other Gold oddments are ultimately given the royal treatment by America's finest corps of soldiers. Read on.

The headline says:
US Marines Guard Gold In Vaults Targeted By Iraqi Looters
= = = =
BAGHDAD (AP)--U.S. Marines with machine guns and tanks stood guard Friday over what they estimated was $1 billion in gold - safeguarding nine still-unbreached bank vaults that had withstood direct rocket-propelled grenade hits by robbers determined to fight their way in.

"Fort Knox doesn't have security like this," Staff Sgt. Jack Coughlin of the 3rd Battalion, 4th Marines said in a bank lobby, referring to U.S. gold reserves. Shots rang out outside - U.S. snipers dealing with the last AK-47- armed robbers still roaming Baghdad's pillaged banking district.

It was Wall Street meets the Wild West - days of audacious daylight robberies, thwarted by Marines, that have left two blocks of the district a gutted, looted ruin.

Scorch marks crowned the windows of several banks, shattered glass crunched underfoot and documents lay scattered up and down the sidewalks.

Broken glass lay inches deep in the Central Bank - a burned-out shell of a building, its interior buried in twisted metal beams from the collapse of the roof and all nine floors.

...To keep the surviving vaults safe, Marines on Friday stood guard at every street and every sewer cover, and snipers were deployed on the roofs.

"Get out of here. Don't talk to me. Get out of here," a Marine told one Iraqi man, enforcing an absolute, two-block-wide no-go zone around the banks.

Marines had fought some of the most intense battles of the war around the banks.
= = = =

OK, that's enough to give you the gist of it in case my link doesn't work.

A couple of points come to mind. From the article, intelligence reports indicated that Baghdad's wealthy residents deposited their jewelry and other gold valuables in vaults before the war, yet in the early stages of looting, it was reported that many of the smaller safes had fallen at the hands of insiders who had keys and simply opened them. (Other small safes were blasted open with rocket-propelled grenades.)

Who will you trust with your gold in a severe social crisis if others -- *insiders* -- have knowledge and keys to its whereabouts? Weren't this guys the same guys that you supposedly trusted as banking/security professionals prior to the social upheaval??

Further, with all of the bank records blown to smithereens in the shelled out building, a big problem confronts the guardians regarding the contents of those nine large vaults. This article puts it better than I could -- Marine Capt. Tim Walker, a 3rd Battalion company commander said the "headache" after the fighting will be the attempt to sort out millions in gold among clamoring owners with scarcely a bank document outlining ownership left.

OK, so what's the good of paper documents of ownership of Gold in any form? If paper registrations to your precious Physical Holdings in safe deposit boxes and the like can leave you worried about your claim to what's rightfully yours, do you *really* think you have a chance in Hell of getting any kind of settlement from things like unallocated Gold pool accounts, or derivative contracts that promise to deliver Metal if you ask for it? Gimme a break!! It won't take anything near as much chaos as seen in a hot war to see paper Gold holdings in any form fail to satisfy. A bump in the road is enough to plunder that house of cards!

If you don't physically *have* it, it's not the kind of property or wealth you can count on when the chips are down.

Best advice on the net coming up in THREE... TWO... ONE...

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Black Blade

(04/18/2003; 15:42:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101535)

Goldilox and Rich

Goldilox - As I understand it, the Polish purchase of fighter aircraft is to update to the airforce NATO standards. They are a recent addition to the NATO alliance and perhaps this is a reward for their support for the Iraqi invasion as well. Who knows.

Rich - It is raining here and just after I washed and waxed my "rolling office". Oh well, I hear the call of Thor (thunder) and that's my call to go to the "long hall" and raise a horn of golden ale to Odin. But off to the gym first to mentally and physically prepare for the task. ;-)

- Black Blade

Goldilox

(04/18/2003; 15:54:41 MDT - Msg ID: 101536)

"Stop Looking?"

@BB:

I am truly offended by the ignorant bureaucrats who assume that someone who is unemployed stops looking for work the moment that benefits expire, as if feeding their family is no longer a priority. What a crock they dump on us and call it "spin".

Notice that the press has yet to say anything about rising occupancy rates in soup kitchens and homeless shelters. Customer growth at the Salvation Army, DAV, and their ilk are far outstripping the hotel sector, but it's just not good enough news to print. After all, once ample food is an issue, newspapers become a luxury (or a park bench blanket) so those people are no longer subscribers, anyway.

Hoovervilles and Reagan-era Tent Cities are bound to start popping up as benefits and borrowing power fail the induivdual. Sadly, they are likely to be billed as "enemies of the administration" by the coalition-of-the-press as they were in 1983. How much do we suppose Dubya's tax rebate will help these folks?

Black Blade

(04/18/2003; 16:02:46 MDT - Msg ID: 101537)

Mugabe says Britain, U.S. try to colonise Zimbabwe

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030418/zimbabwe_independence_1.html
Snippit:

HARARE, April 18 (Reuters) - Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe accused Britain and the United States on Friday of trying to "recolonise" the southern African country by leading an international campaign against his policies. In a defiant speech marking the country's independence from Britain 23 years ago, Mugabe said Western opposition to his seizure of white-owned farms for landless blacks was part of a drive to keep the Third World poor. "Africa is for Africans and Zimbabwe is for Zimbabweans... Our land, our dear Zimbabwe will never again fall into foreign hands. Never, never, never again will Zimbabwe be a colony," he said to loud applause from 20,000 supporters in a stadium draped in posters declaring "Zimbabwe is our motherland".

But many other Zimbabweans say they have little to celebrate. Zimbabwe is facing its worst crisis in more than two decades, with soaring unemployment and shortages of fuel, foreign exchange and food which many blame on Mugabe's policies. Inflation hit a record 228 percent in March. Britain and the United States have slapped sanctions on Mugabe and his inner circle. They deny allegations by Zimbabwean leaders that their opposition to Mugabe is "racist" and aimed at controlling the country's natural resources.

A top U.S. official this week repeated Washington's call for a transitional government leading to fresh polls. Mugabe's victory last year was condemned as fraudulent by some Western nations, which also accuse his government of rights abuses. But Zimbabwe escaped censure from the United Nations' top human rights body in Geneva this week.

Black Blade: Another candidate for "regime change"? I doubt it, but Mugabe is insane and his "reforms" have led to widespread starvation and a totalitarian state. I have known several Rhodesians over the years (mostly "white" exiles) and they all morn the loss of a country that had so much potential of a vibrant economy and free state with growing opportunities for the population. Needless to say, they are no longer living in Zim. However, I doubt that the US and UK will intervene militarily. But tyrants the world over have obviously been nervously watching recent events in Iraq. Gold mining operations have largely come to a standstill and Angloplats recently was condemned for plans to pursue platinum mining in Zim during the current upheaval. "Interesting Times"

Goldilox

(04/18/2003; 16:08:09 MDT - Msg ID: 101538)

Mugabe

@BB:

Mugabe's speech sounds like a replay of Venezuela's Chavez.

Goldilox

(04/18/2003; 16:12:20 MDT - Msg ID: 101539)

More Land seizures

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/2959667.stmLula in Brazil is dealing with land reform issues that are not so peaceful, as well. In his situation, the party which enabled his leadership is not as patient with the process as he would have preferred.

Black Blade

(04/18/2003; 16:12:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101540)

Goldilox

Interesting that you bring up soup kitchens and such. I help out a neighbor who is a long retired "war vet" (WWII and Korea) and old Wyoming cowboy who has seen better days and is struggling on Social Security checks. Twice a month I give him a lift to the Salvation Army food dispensary and to the VA Hospital on occasion. He also goes to the local "soup kitchen" for daily meals (M-F). I have noticed the growing number of "families" who are waiting in growing lines waiting for food. This is one indicator of the health of the US economy. It is really sad to see so many people who have lost jobs or who have taken lower paying jobs and are struggling to just make it day to day.

As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months' expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start program of a nonperishable food and basic goods. It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

- Black Blade

Aristotle

(04/18/2003; 16:28:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101541)

Whoa there, Goldilox!

"...the moment that benefits expire..."
"...Hoovervilles and Reagan-era Tent Cities..."
"...benefits and borrowing power fail the induivdual..."
"How much do we suppose Dubya's tax rebate will help these folks?"

All this talk of benefits and government helping... folks should be on the socialist dole from cradle to grave, is that your angle?

Since when did it go out of style to try to help oneself? Isn't that our first obligation in society -- to contribute productively in so way to support ourself so as not to be a burden to others? And if we fail, isn't it then our family's obligation to pick us up and carry us because they brought us into the world as part of their clan? If our parents have already passed on, surely our kids owe us for all the years we fed their hungry bellies without compensation.

When people start looking for a free ride, if they get one, it always comes on the back of another poor yet capable soul, either out of charity or because he was outnumbered at the voting booth.

Each person like yourself should put their talents and energy into the kind of meaningful employment that endures through good times and bad. If a sour economy is enough to make someone and their job obsolete, well, I guess that was revealed as a malinvestment in time and energy, wasn't it? But maybe not, if they were able to make enough hay while the sun was shining.

If more people would put/convert their accumulated excess earnings into the stability Gold instead of gambling with it all, we wouldn't have so much malinvestment and pain as the reality check arrives and a lot of frivolous high fliers go down in flames as basketcases that you would seemingly have the rest of us carry. Sure, I'll do my bit to help my fellow man to a point, (such as aid to handicapped or even folks like some of the downtrodden Palestinians who can't control their plight,) but my good cheer quickly sours when you would have me share my precious resources with an otherwise able-bodied drunken gambler under threat of fines or jail time for civil disobedience if I were to refuse (i.e., paying under your taxation.)

For the sake of this discussion, this is admittedly an oversimplification, but the solution is for able-bodied people to get off their low horses and walk erect with the rest of us.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Goldilox

(04/18/2003; 16:33:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101542)

Tent Cities

@BB:

In reference to the Reagan-era "Tent Cities", I watched a small movement in one of California's most progressive cities get physically relocated from downtown to a ranch in the hills of Milpitas in the eighties (out of sight, and out of bus range for anyone who might get lucky enough to find a JOB). The local ABC affiliate produced a news/music video using my social satire piece regarding the homeless situation and then followed it up with another production about California issuing IOU's during their budget crisis. Just as I envisioned a budding career as a political satirist, the producer was fired and emerged at some unaffiliated local channel. "Criticism is fine, but God's sake, don't broadcast it!". ABC was at that time owned by (CIA Director) Bill Casey's Capital Cities Corp., so government criticism was not highly encouraged.

Black Blade

(04/18/2003; 16:43:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101543)

From The Mailbag

Courtesy of Eric Fry at Daily Reckoning:

"We've reached a funny position where the long run doesn't work; where the long run evidence doesn't fit circumstances as they are today," observes Peter Bernstein. "Forget investing for the long haul. The long run, right now, is irrelevant."

This is a remarkable, and somewhat ironic, comment from the man who -- along with Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel -- co- authored "Stocks for the Long Run." Bernstein readily concedes Siegel's assertion that stocks-for-the-long-run have produced remarkably consistent real returns of 7% per year since 1880 -- at least when measured over 20-year timeframes.

"But the average dividend yield during all those 20-year periods was over 4%," Bernstein points out. "Real price appreciation contributed only 2.1% to that long-run 7% annual return. All the rest was dividends, received and reinvested. By contrast, today's dividend yield is in the neighborhood of 2%. Which means that in order to add up to 7% real growth over the next 20 years, we'd need 5% real growth in earnings, in addition to those dividends-and that's not exactly a reasonable expectation over the long run. Impossible, in fact..."

That's why Siegel's analysis is as deceptive as it is factual. When calculating long-term investment returns, the starting price matters. Even a simpleton, or a Wharton professor, would understand that a stock market selling for a low multiple of earnings and paying a high dividend yield is much more likely to appreciate than a richly valued market paying negligible dividends.

"The historical average returns that so many rely on as guides to the future are misleading," says Bernstein. "The double-digit returns that stocks were able to generate over the last century were due to equities starting cheap and getting richer over time."

The problem is; the stocks that once were cheap are now expensive. When stocks are dear, investors have two choices - hibernation or hyperactivity. Buffett suggests the former; Bernstein the latter. Both men have a point.

"Despite three years of falling prices, which have significantly improved the attractiveness of common stocks," writes Mr. Buffett in last month's letter to Berkshire
Hathaway shareholders, "we still find very few that even mildly interest us. We continue to do very little in equities...Occasionally, successful investing requires inactivity," the oracle of Omaha concludes.

Black Blade: Sometimes I get truly excellent analyses that pop into my mailbox. I recent made the same condemnation of Siegal's assertions. His incessant drivel permeates the airways of CNBC from time to time and the hairs on the back of my neck rise when I hear such obvious lies and misinformation as he touts the stock market and pans precious metals. It is interesting to note that the most successful investor of all time � Warren Buffett takes an opposing view. Now who would you trust? A Wharton professor touting stocks and "economic recovery" in the "second half" (four years running now), or the most successful investor of all time who continues to add value to his investments even in the most dismal economy in 50 years? I think it's a "no-brainer".

Off to the gym and then the "long hall" to raise my horn of golden ale to Odin as Thor's calls grow louder and my presence is "demanded"! I am running late and I must not keep the Norse Gods waiting. ;-)

The Invisible Hand

(04/18/2003; 16:48:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101544)

Iraqi's want no dollar but euro ...

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,245335,00.html
... but the US of A couldn't seize euro's in Iraq, so the US of A can only distribute dollars in Iraq, thereby trying to ensure the presence of the dollar in Iraq. Bad money runs out good money! Hmm, Hmm �

SNIP:
Mit den Dollar-Transporten reagierte Washington auch auf Berichte, wonach Muslime im Zorn �ber den Krieg dazu aufgerufen haben, nicht mehr Dollar, sondern Euro als Zahlungsmittel zu verwenden. Mit den Geldlieferungen wurde vorerst einmal die Pr�senz des Dollars im Irak gesichert. Das gelieferte Geld stammt dabei aus dem 1,7 Milliarden-Dollar-Verm�gen der bisherigen irakischen F�hrung, das die USA k�rzlich beschlagnahmt hatten.

Black Blade

(04/18/2003; 16:59:01 MDT - Msg ID: 101545)

US govt posted $58.7 bln budget shortfall in March

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=2590634
Snippit:

WASHINGTON, April 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. government posted a deficit in March of $58.71 billion, the Treasury Department said on Friday, bringing the year-to-date fiscal shortfall to more than a quarter of a trillion dollars. Halfway through the 2003 budget year and ahead of April's annual flood of income tax receipts, the government's balance sheet was in the red by $252.65 billion, compared to a deficit of $131.92 billion in the same period in the prior budget year.

Black Blade: Looks grim as the deficit widens. Not good for the US dollar either.

I know � I know, Thor is getting angry.

Belgian

(04/18/2003; 17:03:20 MDT - Msg ID: 101546)

@ Mikal

Polished my old crystal ball a bit and...saw a 2 cts worth, future prediction for Gold :
The very precious yellow has been undervalued for such a long time...more than 20 yrs is indeed *extremely* long for the most * political * of metals ! Gold's past behavior is simply to be discribed as an horizontal, gently oscillation...slowly but surely (systematically) frozen up (contained).
This is an "enormous" bullisch behavior / pattern ! Some real "artists" were at work on this Golden masterpiece.
That piece of art under construction is a Free Goldmarket that will evolve, once it is unveiled, in a totally different pattern ! The unveiling (inauguration) is a straight up "revaluation" into the thousands of dollars/euro per ounce.

A Free Goldmarket will be a condition where Physical Gold will be traded on completely other terms than the past 20 years of paper-gold trading. Gold's behavior and trading patterns will be different. You will see massive buying and selling up until Gold's valuation comes in line with the managements of the major currencies that also will have changed.

The 20 yrs horizontal oscilating pattern of Gold indicates that a substantial amount of Physical Gold (not all Gold)has changed hands...from old hands into new ones ! From ignorant, Weakening hands into knowledgable Strong hands.
A very classic phenomenon and an extraordinary one, because of the very long time lapse (20 yrs) during wich this "re-allocation" has taken place.

Who those old weakening hands were is of little importance.
Who are the "NEW" holders of Gold !? And here I start speculating with my intuition (FWIW !)

Those who have been (still are) accumulating Gold...do *KNOW* something that must be of extreme importance. Not one single soul is speculating with the trade of "physical" Gold ! One speculates (gambles) only with the engineered paper-gold market.
This globe CB's are re-allocating and re-balancing the amounts of their Gold-exchange-reserves, within a certain pattern that apparently makes no sense to us and the old Gold Holders ! These golden oldies simply say that CBs sell their Gold and Basta...get rid of that boring old yellow stuff.

Those who desire to accumulate (obsolete) Gold, simply enhance the perception of Gold's worthlesness. Yep...give me your Gold, su...r ! One tonne of Swiss Gold per day...keeps the goldbug away. At the other official/unofficial, Gold Auctions...one will never see those New strong hands but only hear an anominous voices (buyers) speaking many different languages.

Generations old, Gold-Insiders, KNOW what is going to happen...what will be Gold's final fate ! Gold-Insiders who never gave up on their knowledge about Gold's ultimate VALUE ! Once they understood that Gold was making a BIG chance to come back into the epicenter...they wanted much more of it. What easier way to knock Gold down as to "demonize" it. Very recognizable tactic, isn't it ?

Look what is going on in the ME ! Imagine that your underground Black Liquid Wealth is threathened as it is today ! What would you do ? Would Gold qualify as an excellent, practical, emergency exit ? Do you follow me ?
Those who were already in the know that this ME (Arabian oil) threath, would highly probable make a chance to happen...are also, deep, Gold-Insiders !

The same reasoning goes for CBs that KNOW what the ultimate fate of the dollar-reserve will be. These CBs, also, want an emergency exit when their old dollar reserves will inevitably be threathened...one day ! Gold does qualify again for such a similar job.

These new, early birds, sophisticated strong Gold hands, do anticipate the possibility (inevitability) of a dramatic change. A structural change for Gold-Trade ! Marking one's Wealth to market, has a deep underlying meaning. This is not an insignificant gimmick.

If a new (altered) gold-standard would be on the program...POG would be at a higher price-level (500$/600$).
Remember that POG dived down from 412$ to 250$ for some very strange, rather inexplicable (non-logical), reasons .
Do you think that it were the CBs who wanted this price-dive ? No Sir ! A certain faction of Gold-Insiders abused the REALLOCATION/REBALANCING programs at their profit !
That's why the WA popped up.

Would the dollar NOT be "artificially" supported if POG would have remained around the horizontal 400$/500$ oscillating range ? No Sir, imvho, I do believe we all went on the wrong foot in the period 1997 > 1999 !

Notorious (famous and infamous) Gold-Insiders have been exploiting the general perception of CB goldsales that weren't "net" sales as such. Maybe there was some will at that time to make Gold a bit more transparent and this was *exploited* by those who WANT IT ALL !

Are the ME / Russia / China, accumulating Gold-exchange-reserves, at these obscene prices, with the intention of selling it all, once POG doubles from here ? Forget it.
That's not the way, real winners operate !!! (Read Ski's words of wisdom).

To me it was extremely significant when the FT reported the repatriation of Iran's Gold from the London vaults !!!
400 tonnes...almost double the (supposed) UK reserves after sales (?). Swiss (Belgian) people starting to ask where there remaining goldreserves are stored !

Those who continiously dismiss the possibility that a Free Goldmarket might materialize...don't even want to discuss this possibility and keep on ridiculing the idea. Are those (pseudo) Gold-realists sincere ? Rhetoric question of course. Those old Gold speculators want to keep the situation as it is...was ! They simply hate the prospect of Free Gold, but in the mean time...they accumulate it themselves. Financial engineering by the "Haute Finance".
Loads of evidence of such modus operandi is to be found in the past stockmarket mania ! Deception...half trueths...half lies...plunder...deceit...human life as it is.

Answer your question : Free Gold will let us see another kind of Gold Trade that will break with the contained, artificial behavior of Gold. Gold's value lays in its capacity to reflect real Wealth and will therefor always rise in price, once it has been set FREE ! Simply compare it with the decades of price-evoluton of other tangibles (land-houses) that are far less valuable than Gold !

Happy Easter, Mikal.

Black Blade

(04/18/2003; 17:04:27 MDT - Msg ID: 101547)

U.S. business loans rose in April 9 wk-Fed

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=2590799
Snippit:

WASHINGTON, April 18 (Reuters) - Commercial and industrial loans on the books at U.S. commercial banks in the week ended April 9 were $946.1 billion, up $1.1 billion from the previous week, the Federal Reserve said on Friday.

Black Blade: US corporations continue to dig themselves into a deeper hole as well.

Now I gotta go before Odin turns me into a toad or sends the valkeries to smite me or something. ;-)

Goldilox

(04/18/2003; 17:08:45 MDT - Msg ID: 101548)

This is not about relying on government dole

@ ARI

All of your political platitudes are not putting food on my table. I have already substantially reduced my assets just to live for the last year, and I CONTRIBUTED to this society (as you so humbly put it) continuously for the last thirty years. Fortunately, in my case, I save at a Japanese level so I actually had some assets, but they have been pretty well decimated recently.

I am not addicted to handouts, and finding a job is a real priority. For ANYone to suggest I am not looking for work anymore just because the benefits ran out is INSULTING and a real source of my anger. The resumes, email enquiries, and phone calls continue, even with exhausted benefits, so don't you dare accuse me of "wasting YOUR precious resources".

By the way - Unemployment benefits are not welfare, but rather an insurance policy paid for during the duration of employment. I was laid off a year ago, and contributed to both SSI and UC (through employer taxes) regularly for over thirty years. I am not ashamed to receive UC but thanks to the legalized-theft fiscal policies in Washington, will probably never see anything near what I contributed to SSI.

In addition, the ENRON-style thieves in New York and Washington are manipulating markets so well, only the insiders will have anything left in their private retirement holdings.

Waverider

(04/18/2003; 17:16:20 MDT - Msg ID: 101549)

VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlSnip:
"I have thought about today's Daily Market Report (DMR) and have decided to just leave you all with some analysts and investment advisors thoughts on gold as almost every gold market is closed today for the extended Easter holiday weekend. The Sydney, Hong Kong, London and New York markets are shut on Friday for Easter, leaving the lonely Japanese players wary about setting up new positions. U.S. markets resume trading on Monday while other markets, including Sydney and London, will be closed on Monday as well..."

CoBra(too)

(04/18/2003; 17:21:37 MDT - Msg ID: 101550)

@ The Invisible Hand

Another snippet from your "Der Spiegel" link - thanks for the reminder:

"Der Dinar erlebte in den letzten Jahren eine kontinuierliche Abwertung. Die irakische Notenbank versorgte die Regierung ungehemmt mit druckfrischem Geld und trug damit zum Kursverfall der W�hrung bei. Die Inflation im Irak betrug zwischen 1994 und 2001 j�hrlich 80,4 Prozent und liegt derzeit bei 60 bis 70 Prozent."

OK, a brief translation - The Dinar (Iraqui) underwent a continous depreciation in the last years. The Iraqui Central Bank provided the government uninhibited with freshly printed money with and therefor contributed to the depreciation of the currency. The average inflation rate was 80.4% annually from from 1994 to 2001 ...

And the rest may be history. And as we know it doesn't necessarily repeat - it rhymes.

Another history of hilarious use of printing presses - as it never works - except of course in Mr. Greenspan and Bernanke's script. Airlifting US Dollars to Iraq? Why not save fuel and make paper planes do, duh?

Even blown up supreme reserve fiat currencies - eventually blow up (or melt down) or losing value (=buying power) - by sheer overuse (=supply)!

Trade you some for the real 'property' gold! cb2

R Powell

(04/18/2003; 19:48:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101551)

Goldilox

Without knowing or prying into your business may I suggest that formal education, autodidactic learning, work habits, job skills, people politics, and most all the qualifications necessary for successful money making work are as transferable from occupation to occupation (job to job if you like) as gold is from bank to bank. Gold is called fungible. I would call good work skills fungible or transferable from job to job. Really good, dependable people are hard to find in the non-union construction trades simply because most of them are, like myself and Black Blade, self-employed. I have a partner but no employees.

Also, most good construction type workers can very quickly adapt to most any outdoor physical work (as in whatever is available). I believe this adaptable quality is not unique to construction. Common sense, discipline, a bit of planning, logistics, communications, desire to do well, willingness to work hard, etc. (platitudes ad nausium) are not left behind when one leaves one job. All unemployment brings is the lose of one job, not any ability. It was partly growing sick of working for unappreciative idiots and partly from growing tired of looking for an employer each time I was laid off due to job completion or weather that finally convinced me to go on my own.

Right now you have no job, so there is no job at risk. Okay, what would you like to do? Lucky is he who earns by doing something he likes to do. Do you have all the necessary skills? Probably, and what do you have to lose if, by chance, it doesn't work out on the first try? Many times I was hired for the short duration of one job. What did I lose when I was again laid off as opposed to what I had before that job started? Also, there are advantages to self-employment. I will never suffer from the expiration of unemployment benefits as I can not collect at all. Trust yourself.
Rich

Aristotle

(04/18/2003; 19:58:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101552)

Sir Belgian -- msg#: 101546

A Thousand blessings upon your house!

Gold. Posted you some. --- Ari

Aristotle

(04/18/2003; 20:09:19 MDT - Msg ID: 101553)

Goldilox, your porridge is too hot

You missed my point, apparently. I wasn't personal, but I suppose the shoe was such a good fit that you insisted on wearing it???

What are the chances that you would have been able to save enough for your own needs, in spades, if you yourself hadn't been so aggressively taxed during your haymaking period?

It's all about personal responsibility to the extent possible every step of the way. Gold savings is a great tool for personal empowerment, and as Belgian explains, the full abilities of this empowerment tool have been cleverly obscured as, in his words, "some real 'artists' were at work on this Golden masterpiece," but it has performed nicely in spite of it all. Just wait 'til the curtain rises on this show!

Keep pluggin' away, soldier. It's the best we can do in the meanwhile.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Aristotle

(04/18/2003; 20:18:17 MDT - Msg ID: 101554)

That's Golden advice, Rich-ness.

If more people would trust their instincts for both happiness AND self-preservation rather than stepping mindlessly into the conventional flow of media and life around them, they'd be happily productive under their own terms AND have a growing pile of Golden riches to see them through the brief rough patches. The starting point, as you well know, it to *take control* of your own life. If you go with the flow don't be surprised when you're eventually sucked down the drain.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

mikal

(04/18/2003; 21:14:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101555)

@Belgium, Town Crier

@Belgium- Re: msg#101546.
Just came home and read your insightful post before any of the others. Thank you and Happy Easter to you also, and to all.
@Town Crier- Now I see the "Hall Of Fame" hyperlink near the top and the Haiku link therein. Thank you.

Ananse

(04/18/2003; 21:26:16 MDT - Msg ID: 101556)

First person account of life with SARS in Singapore

Thought you all might find the following email interesting. I gives a grim picture indeed of the effect SARS is having on lives!

From the email: "An update on Singapore: For the past 3 weeks, people in Singapore battles against SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome). The government is trying to contain the spread of the virus by contact tracing and screening every visitor entering Singapore. All schools were shut for 20 days (just re-opened today) and 500-1000 people home-quarantined by law. To date, 167 people (mostly healthcare workers and patients) have been infected with this new strain of coronavirus and 12 have since died from it. It's very sad indeed. A 39-yr old pastor who went to prayed for a SARS patient contracted the virus and later died from it. A 27-yr old doctor and 29-yr old designer have also succumbed to the disease.

This SARS saga is a national crisis. Major exhibitions, events, conferences, concerts were cancelled or postponed and the tourism industry severely affected. Our lifestyle has been drastically affected as well. If you were to have a fever or flu-like symptoms, it's not to be taken lightly, as these could be the symptoms of SARS. In The National University of Singapore, the university campus has been divided into different zones and if anyone were to be infected with SARS in that area, the entire zone will be shut for 3 days. All of us are required to make adjustments in our experiments if the zone gets shuts down. Everyone in the department is strongly discouraged from traveling abroad, especially to SARS-affected countries. On the return from such a trip, the person would be quarantined for 10 days and body temperature has to be checked twice daily. We have to exercise social responsibility.

For me, I try to avoid crowded places and limit my movement between my workplace and home, no social gatherings for this month. In church, instead of shaking hands, we are to acknowledge each other by by the traditional Chinese way of clasping your hands together. For holy communion, the communion stewards wore gloves and the cups used were disposable. It's a trying time. My family and I try to stay healthy during this season. Hope and pray that the situation will be under control soon."

Amen!

Waverider

(04/18/2003; 21:29:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101557)

Mikal

Happy Easter to you too! I see your Golden "P" alliteration also made it into the HOF - congratulations, well done! :)

Goldendome

(04/18/2003; 21:35:38 MDT - Msg ID: 101558)

Question:

Does U.S. monetary inflation matter, when being offset by goods deflation from Asia...and the World's reserve currency resides with the hands-down supreme world military power?

ski

(04/18/2003; 22:18:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101559)

Forum Discussion of Golden Nuggets .....

Appreciate ALL the comments on the Golden Nugget series, both the favorable and not so favorable. I learn from everyone. My number one reason for the posting the series is so that everyone here can benefit from at least a few of them.

My next post will be the Final section of Golden Nuggets entitled .."Odds and Ends". There are 32 entries under this heading and about one half of them are my own personal entries. I say this ahead of time because it could possibly look like I had taken this opportunity to "slip in" some text that highlights many of my own personal investment deductions. I did not and would not.

That being said, on with the show .... Thanks all.

Black Blade

(04/18/2003; 22:20:37 MDT - Msg ID: 101560)

Goldilox � Unemployment

From your previous post I take it you are from the Bay Area? I talked to a couple of friends in the east Bay recently and the discussion came around to several people they know who work in Silicon Valley and surrounding areas. They said that they know many people who have been unemployed for as long as two years and still have not been able to find work. One friend told me that when an IT job becomes available there are likely to be 2,000 applicants for one position. It is kind of odd considering the run on the tech heavy Nasdaq recently. When I asked how these people are making it he said they are living off of unemployment benefits, depleted and depreciated investment portfolios by cashing in stocks and mutual funds, refinancing homes and second mortgages (a lot of equity given the price of Bay Area homes), selling homes and moving in with relatives, working odd jobs under the table, and he said he even heard of a couple of acquaintances who are indoor "farming" California's largest cash crop. I guess desperate times call for desperate measures. Another friend in the area said she was laid off and it took her over a year to find another job. They both said the same thing � that it's getting to be almost a desperate situation for many people.

Obviously this is not a very healthy economy and the long touted "economic recovery" simply is not materializing. Fortunately I practice what I preach. I have a store of food and basic necessities that should last at least another 9 to 11 months and that can be stretched longer with abundant local sources of protein (hunting and fishing). My meager investment income covers my current costs and of course I have my ultimate portfolio insurance needs covered (though I wouldn't mind increasing that nice pile of insurance). Still it is quite possible that I could get an "offer I can't refuse" should the energy or mining sectors turn around. In the meantime I am taking advantage of keeping my skills and studies up to date and working on improving my physical condition with my daily workouts at the gym. Not to mention enjoying the company of you good folks here at the Roundtable. I suspect that there will yet be a lot more pain before the economy begins to improve and if the avalanche of economic data continues to point to a deteriorating economy it could last for several more years. Meanwhile I would not be surprised to see government agencies continuing to give out misleading and deceptive data to cover up the severity of the problem and like the traffic cop standing before the carnage of a burning pileup telling spectators that "all is well, move along now people � there's nothing to see here". Hmmm�

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(04/18/2003; 23:00:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101561)

Natural Gas Troubles Seen In Storage, Not In Price

http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=6544.topic
Snippit:

NEW YORK -- The natural gas storage reports for the next two weeks could indicate just how serious the country's natural gas shortage is. How the country deals with that shortage could have a tremendous impact on the economy. National supplies are at an all-time low of 623 billion cubic feet, according to the U.S. Department of Energy's weekly report on Thursday. During a shortage two years ago, supplies totaled 810 Bcf. The five-year average for this time of year is 1,221 Bcf, according to UBS Warburg gas industry analyst Ronald Barone. And the country is heading into a summer when probably more natural gas than ever before will be used to run new electric generators, rather than being put into storage for the winter. As a result, most people in the industry expect a sustained gas shortage for the next two years, and many expect that there may not be enough gas in storage to meet heating demand this winter. "We're going to have deliverability problems next winter unless we have a winter as warm as 2001-2002 or a severe economic slowdown," said Barone in an interview.

California Gov. Gray Davis and a few other politicians blamed the gas and electricity crisis of 2000-2001 on energy traders rather than a fundamental supply and demand problem. While a few incidents of bad behavior were uncovered, McAndrew maintains, such activity was in no way the cause of the problem. "By this time next year we'll have more investigations by the FERC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission, more energy traders going to jail and full reregulation," he said. "There's nothing more important to this economy than natural gas and energy," he said. "It's hard to imagine the economy growing 3%-4%, which Wall Street seems to expect, given our current energy infrastructure. And you want to talk about the psyche of the country? Think about people not being able to heat their homes in the winter."

Black Blade: I wish I had an online link to this but I have it copied (at the link above). Now where did I hear this case made before? Oh yeah, I have been saying the same thing for some time now. I have seen the "Boom-Bust" cycles come and go over the years and it is always the same pattern. This time it is especially difficult because Wall Street simply does not understand the severity of the NatGas supply problem, lack of sufficient infrastructure, regulatory difficulties (including permitting and land access issues) and much less the numerous choke points and bottlenecks amid the more difficult financing environment since the rush of credit rating agencies to downgrade credit of US energy companies. In the current weak US economy another massive hit from a looming energy crisis on the horizon will seal the fate of the US economy and any fleeting hope of "economic recovery". Every postwar economic recession has been preceded by an energy crisis (including the current economic recession � 2000-2001 energy crisis).

mikal

(04/18/2003; 23:46:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101562)

@Waverider

Re: msg#101557.
Thank you. Repost one of your poems, if you would please?

Black Blade

(04/19/2003; 00:05:07 MDT - Msg ID: 101563)

Graph and Forecast for the SARS Epidemic

http://www.squeak.org/us/ted/sars-graph.html
Snippit:

Forecast

The number of reported cases of SARS in the world is doubling every 17 days. This is implied by the slope of the blue curve, using the data available on April 18, 2003. There will be 100,000 cases on about July 5, 2003. A million cases will be reached on about August 29, 2003, and ten million on about October 23, 2003. These predictions will change every day as new data changes the slope of the curves. Only world cases after March 25, 2003 are used to compute the slope, because that is when China began reporting.

The slope of red curve implies that the number of reported worldwide deaths due to SARS will double every 12 days. The number will be 100,000 on about August 8, 2003. A million deaths will be reached on about September 18, 2003, and ten million on about October 28, 2003. This forecast will change every day as new data changes the slope of the curves. Only world cases after March 25, 2003 are used to compute the slope, because that is when China began reporting.

The slope of black curve implies that the number of reported cases of SARS in the United States will double every 9.5 days. The number will be 100,000 on about July 8, 2003. A million cases will be reached on about August 9, 2003, and ten million on about September 9, 2003. Note that the US cases appear to be doubling faster than the world rate. Either the US number of cases will double much more slowly in the future, or the world rate will double faster. The projected date for a million cases in the US is probably inaccurate.

Black Blade: Of course there are too many variables involved to come to a conclusion this early about projected death rates and whether the subsequent re-infection rates will have similar results. Just another potential problem for the global economy that has already had an effect in some Asian economies. Still, we are not quite at the point of carts being pushed through neighborhoods amid cries of "bring out your dead".

ski

(04/19/2003; 00:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101564)

Golden Nuggets ..... Odds and Ends

1. On sophisticated oppression. Opposition to most human endeavors will arise with time, but if you own it (the opposition), it will never be a real threat to your enterprise ... and it may choke out legitimate opposition.

2. Economically a slave is just someone that is taxed at 100%.

3. Or Russia ... since the state owns evrything, theirs nothing to tax. When the ruble is worthless, there is nothing to induce workers to work for the state, or farmers to farm ... all economic activity will take place outside the system.

4. The four G's of survival are God, Guns, Gold and Groceries.

5. Victims are terrible judges.

6. When people rise above subsistence level, the first thing they want is .. to eat a little better.

7. As a country becomes more prosperous, it becomes more independent.

8. CHANGE does not necessarily beget improvement ... quite the opposite is possible.

9. Mary Aden "Major market changes can be triggered by ANYTHING."

10. In the long run, the best use of money is to invest it in the tools of production.

11. Financial markets react to what they sense about the future. If they just followed present events, you could read today's paper and buy and sell accordingly. Financial markets reflect "what will be" not "what is".

12. The best use of mutual funds is to make investing more convenient once you know what you want.

13. Close-ended funds generally offer the greatest potential returns.

14.Experienced investors never buy a common stock without first checking to see whether a company also offers a convertible.

15. Only short "low" or "no" dividend stocks.

16. Ask about "B" shares of "load" mutual funds. Often you don't pay for the front-end load if you hold the fund for at least 5 years.

17. A successful hedge will do two things: reduce your risk and increase your profits.

18. The best indicator of the value of a house is what it will rent for. 1% of market value per month. .... Just multiply rent X 100 to get approximate value.

19. Except in inflationary periods where real estate values are constantly rising, home ownership is seldom a sound investment as it ties up capital that could be working elsewhere.

20. The time to purchase real estate is when it can be purchased for back taxes.

21. Once real estate is depressed enough (in real terms), it will once again become an inflation hedge.

22. A company is a good value when, it's "private" or "wholesale" value is no less than the sum of all the shares outstanding. (the market capitalization)

23. Ski's axiom: An individuals MATURITY LEVEL is directly proportional to the INCREASE of the number of times they say NO to the times they say YES.

24. Take responsibility away from individuals and the more irresponsible they will become.

25. Ski's thought: All history books teach one re-occurring lesson. Things never stay the same for long.

26. Ski's conclusion: Egypt, China, Greece, Rome, France, Spain, England .... empires that have fallen ... but why? I conclude that the vast majority of the 'seeds of destruction" of an advanced civilization are rooted in the DIVISION OF LABOR. As civilizations mature, only cobblers have the knowledge to make shoes, only farmers are experienced at making hay, only mechanics have the requirements to repair cars, only doctors are licensed to treat diseases, only the religious leaders possess the know-how to talk to God, only lawyers are certified to deal with the laws they have created and only politicians have the expertise to govern. Because of the DIVISION OF LABOR, the greater tendency is to mostly do what you are specially qualified, educated, regulated or licensed to do. The result is that we then necessarily and voluntarily, disassociate ourselves from the activities & interests of others & TRANSITION ONTO A NEW COURSE of preserving our own agenda; practiced in real life, this would constitute a very subtle but DIFFERENT objective. ("TRANSITION ONTO A NEW COURSE" .... Imagine Columbus setting out for the New World with only a one degree course change ..... He would APPEAR to be going in the same direction but would have actually ARRIVED in a significantly different destination!) The resulting paradox is that in a specialized society, relatively few people know what you are actually up to, whether you are doing a good job, or if your actions are productive, counter-productive, or downright harmful to others in your very own society. The final outcome is that members of the advanced civilization then have the capacity to conceal their incompetence, hide their real agenda, line their own pockets and generally preserve their own self interests to the detriment of others ... right up until the final day of the inevitable social collapse. In the case of politicians, until the very last penny has be squandered, the vault is empty and the enemy is at the gate .... after it's too late to fix the problem.

27. Ski's seen: Of the thousands of different possible fields of study that an individual could embark upon, INVESTING is at the absolute top of the list as being the most: difficult to master, in-exact, ever-changing, confusing, technically involving, frustrating, un-predictable, costly, emotionally draining and loaded with exceptions and paradoxes. It is among the least scientific yet is supported with mountains of mathematical formulas, charts, graphs, ratios and the like. INVESTING is loaded with "good-intended" but bad, out-dated, conflicting or fraudulent information .... it is the most subject to being "rigged" against you. This is the central reason why virtually all investors, with the exception of the pro's, need to choose and heed the advice of a single, proven, professional investment advisor.

28. Ski's perspective: The art of successful investing is similar to looking into a kaleidoscope. At any given moment, various economic events and forces combine to form a picture .... a picture that accurately reflects that particular moment in time ... this moment in time is reflected in the "market price" for that investment at that moment. Thus, the market price is always "right". However, just as you can never EXACTLY duplicate a particular view in your kaleidoscope, the market NEVER perfectly repeats itself either. Therefore successful investing requires not only a study of HISTORY but that the individual constantly factor in the CURRENT technical & fundamental forces at work. In this endeavor, beware of "history repeats itself" talk. It repeats itself but never perfectly.

29. My "investment SPEED theory" says: One reason that we tend to get it wrong with investing and economics is that economic events take place at a speed that we are not programmed to grasp or that we are psychologically unaccustomed to adjust too. Events might be too slow or fast to see recognize, comprehend and internalize. The great depression had been underway for a few years before people even recognized that they were in it. (Imagine a slow motion landslide ..... its great mass and great ultimate destruction.)

30. In business... What is the source of your competitive advantage?? "Creating a customer experience superior to anything my competitors can create" is the core component of most successful businesses.

31. Ski's theory of magically changing investment strategies: During a sustained equity bull market, a bullish investor is likely to adhere to one or more specific investment strategies. Such as: individual stock selection, dogs of the DOW, buying the dips, buy and hold, index buying, mutual funds, large cap, small cap, value, growth, tech, throwing darts etc. etc. etc. No matter how DIFFERENT the strategy, virtually every strategy performs its magic as long as it ultimately gets the bull invested during the dominate up-trend. (The end result is that the investor psychologically buys into the ILLUSION that it was HIS STRATEGY that worked. It worked, not because his specific strategy was so wisely chosen, but because the trend simply carried him along.) No matter what strategy(s) the bullish investor is sold on, a cruel reality takes place as the market transitions into a sustained bear event. Without the investor even realizing it, virtually each and every one of the individual and formerly successful bull strategies magically TRANSITIONS into a completely different, SINGLE, NEW investment strategy..... BOTTOM GUESSING! Examples of the prevailing market chatter include: we are buying the dip, the market is bottoming, 'V' or 'U' shaped recovery is next, projected end of the slide, business recovery, soon to follow, going to get back on track, historic buying opportuity, market is undervalued etc. etc..... As the bear market chews up the bull profits, EVERY STRATEGY VOICED by EVERY BELIEVING BULL ultimately now BOILS DOWN to nothing more than some form of BOTTOM GUESSING .... and he doesn't even know it! Where too from here? Just as the bears were wildly unsuccessful at picking TOPS on the way up, bulls will be equally unsuccessful at picking BOTTOMS on the way down.

32. Ski's quiet moment says: In investing and many other life pursuits' as well, pride is usually your enemy, humility your friend.

End of Golden Nuggets .....

Waverider

(04/19/2003; 00:23:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101565)

Mikal

Okay Mikal - as per your request, here is one of my poems.

***** Happy Birthday O�Mighty Oaken Table of Yore *****

One special evening about a year ago,
I discovered O�Mighty Oaken Table of Yore
Which dwells in the CPM Castle of Gold,
Whose essence and secrets must now be extolled�

I was welcomed here with both Kindness and Grace
People's words I would read, ne�er seeing a face,
Words of education, knowledge, and wisdom so dear
A special intellectual tapestry, it soon became clear.

A Table where the King, Sir Michael K
Is the Perfect Host in every way,
His knowledge, commitment, and generosity too
Provides the foundation for all that we Goldbugs do.

A Table where guidance on the Trail each day,
Comes from those experienced who've traveled this way,
From the archives of FOA and Another are words
Of prescient thoughts very rarely heard.

A Table where quietly behind the scene
TownCrier works hard and is often seen
Addressing the headlines and announcing the news,
Inviting our thoughts, our debates, and our views.

A Table where Gold rightly Reigns Supreme
As the economy collapses and comes apart at the seams,
Where media lies are analyzed and exposed,
As Truth is unveiled and clearly disclosed.

A Table where intensive Gold study is done,
Economics and geo-politics for everyone,
The only institution with the unique degree -
A Master's in International Gold Studies.

A Table where integrity and noble character abound
In Knights and Ladies who frequent the Round,
You provide strength and sustenance to follow my beliefs
And a place to escape from the world for relief.

A Table where contests are both fun and fair,
Where Gandalf the White seems always is there,
To sound the "TATA" and announce the event
For prizes so Precious they'll never be spent.

A Table where writing is creative and bold�
Siege Engine may become a series I'm told,
Poetry, essays, and writings, all kinds
Weave a mosaic fabric from the many great minds.

A fabric so beautiful you get caught in the thread
Very curious to see where it next will be led,
For we find at the O�Mighty Oaken Table of Yore
The birth of ideas not read elsewhere before.

A Table where Black Blade seems never to rest,
Generously sharing his knowledge and doing his best
To keep us All informed with the DMR,
Reaching Goldbugs everywhere, both near and far.

The FINAL REASON for returning to this TABLE of YORE,
Is I WAIT for A GOLDBUG PARTY like NEVER BEFORE�
To HONOR our HOST and to MEET ONE ANOTHER
For it's HERE we've become GOLD SISTERS and BROTHERS!

Waverider

The Invisible Hand

(04/19/2003; 01:19:23 MDT - Msg ID: 101566)

Denver, here FOA!

http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html
The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War With Iraq:
A Macroeconomic and Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken Truth
by W. Clark
January 2003 (last revised 6 March)
Independent Media Center
www.indymedia.org

Summary
Although completely suppressed by the U.S. media and government, the answer to the Iraq enigma is simple yet shocking -- it is an oil currency war. The real reason for this upcoming war is this administration's goal of preventing further Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) momentum towards the euro as an oil transaction currency standard. However, in order to pre-empt OPEC, they need to gain geo-strategic control of Iraq along with its 2nd largest proven oil reserves. This essay will discuss the macroeconomics of the `petro-dollar' and the unpublicized but real threat to U.S. economic hegemony from the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency. The author advocates reform of the global monetary system including a dollar/euro currency `trading band' with reserve status parity, and a dual OPEC oil transaction standard. These reforms could potentially reduce future oil currency warfare.
===
For those who speak French, see the euro-dollar graph at http://www.vigirak.com/article.php3?id_article=88
If this has been posted before, it can't hurt to read this again. If you read it again, read it in the light of the fact that marines with machine guns are guarding an estimated $1 billion in gold in Baghdad's banking district, securing nine massive vaults that withstood rocket-propelled grenade hits by thieves.
Aristotle (4/18/03; 15:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 101534)
Perspective boys and girls, perspective! ! !
http://news.nasdaq.com/news/newsStory.aspx?&cpath=20030418\ACQDJON200304181444DOWJONESDJONLINE000234.htm

Belgian

(04/19/2003; 01:36:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101567)

@ Goldendome #101558

Only someone with a handle like "Goldendome" must be able to put the world's main problem into 2 sentences ! Brilliant Sir !
You are not asking a question but making the one and only, correct "diagnosis" of this globe's illness !
1/ US$-inflation 2/ US$-enslavement 3/ US$-might ! The "imperial" coctail !

Your question is rather : For how long can this happen ?
The most disappointing answer is : For as long as it takes !

Only one suggestion : *** Anticipate *** the end of the story with the safiest of lifesaving Gold, that is offered on a plate as it has been like never before.

Nothing, but Gold... is for ever. Buy as much of it as your understanding allows (FOA).

Black Blade

(04/19/2003; 02:12:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101568)

Martin Weiss� Comments

On the Economy: "The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index is at its lowest level since November 2001. Manufacturing is coming to almost a complete standstill. And it doesn't look like this situation will get any better as new orders and orders on backlog plunged in March. Manufacturing's last major slide dragged the overall economy into recession. If this slump continues, it may happen all over again."

On the Stock Market: "All hell is about to break loose on Wall Street. The looming war with Iraq is only one reason why the great stock market crash that began in March 2000 is now less than half over. The next bull market can't begin until there are no more hidden shocks waiting to ambush investors. A massive $2.4 trillion pension crisis is about to hammer the Dow and the S&P 500 into the ground. Companies are greatly twisting the numbers to exaggerate their profits�. Those phony profits will suddenly vanish in a cloud of smoke in 2003."

On Real Estate: "The great real estate bubble of 2003 is about to explode. Panic sales of vacation homes are already beginning to hit the market like a ton of bricks. Mortgage rates pretty much have only one way to go from here, up. Sky-high real estate prices combined with rising interest rates will kill consumer demand. And prices will fall off a cliff."

Black Blade: These are just some of market bear Martin Weiss's comments (Safe Money Report). He has had some success in predicting market direction and these comments are his latest musings on the state of the US economy.

Belgian

(04/19/2003; 02:59:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101569)

Arabian oil....that powers the world's industrial base !

8 Iraqi neighbours (inclusive Turkey-!!!) want American and British troops to leave Iraq. The neighbours want a central and vital role for the UN and ask UN-sanctions (oil-embargo) NOT to be lifted, before there is a new, non US-dominated, government in Iraq. Iraq must NOT become divided into 3 parts !

How soon will liberation be percepted as occupation ? What if the formation of a government takes time or is even impossible ? Sanctions will not be lifted by the UN (vetos) and oil cannot be pumped at will ! No government ... no legal oil-owner. We are talking about the world's second large oil-reserves, concentrated in one relatively small country ...what will be left of it !

Leigh

(04/19/2003; 04:36:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101570)

Reward Offered for Bucket of Gold

http://www.upi.com/print.cfm?StoryID=20030418-013914-4772rMIAMI, April 18 (UPI) - Police are looking for a 5-gallon bucket of gold worth as much as $347,000 missing from a shipment at Miami International Airport. Detective Kevin Kozak said he thought it was an inside job. "I believe there are people who work at the airport solely for the purpose of individual gain," Kozak said. "This gives them access to high-value cargo."

Jewelers said the thieves will have a hard time selling the 73 pounds of unrefined gold in its current state but it's another matter if they melt it down into gold bricks or jewelry. They said there is no shortage of melting furnaces belonging to jewelers throughout the country.

Kozak said a $5,000 reward has been offered. A crate containing the gold says it is worth $160,000. Under market gold prices, it could be worth $347,000. But the reward, offered with no questions asked, could make it easier for the thieves. "They'd probably get more from the reward than they probably would ever get from trying to deal with that unless they sent it to one of the processing labs, which would mean they would have to put their name on it," Kozak said. Police were notified immediately on the day of the theft, but after more than a month of investigating, they decided to go public Friday, with a reward.

The police report said American Cargo employee Jose Martelo received six buckets of gold at gate D-24 at the airport, and continued on to other gates to pick up other items. At one point, the baggage handlers had to leave the cart to deal with other cargo. "There were some other vehicles between their line of sight and this cargo, and one of them was taken off the baggage truck," Kozak said. At gate E-12 on an adjacent concourse, Martelo discovered a bucket was missing. "Area canvassed with negative recovery," the police report said.

Police would not say who shipped the gold or where it was going, and Martelo is not commenting. Jewelers said gold is mined or collected from streams in several locations in Central America. Gold dust is routinely shipped to Miami and elsewhere in the United States where it is melted into jewelery.
------
Another story for Black Blade's barbarous relic file.

silvercollector

(04/19/2003; 06:29:12 MDT - Msg ID: 101571)

To BB, oil guru's & armchair generals

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/charris041903.html-snip-

"I think there's tremendous uncertainty as the US executes a strategy that will achieve one of two outcomes, the "hyperpower" status, or else a gigantic global mess with wars into the foreseeable future in what I have dubbed the "colossal mistake" outcome. As far as the gold market goes, there is nothing more important than which of these outcomes is achieved, because one outcome points to low gold prices and the other points to high gold prices."

-end-

Yes, the BIG PICTURE.

Interesting that in amongst Ski's great quotes over the last few days was, " ..as goes a country's currency so goes the country..." or was that the other way around?

Interesting from that one could draw the conclusion that a 'gold bug' waits for the inevitable demise of the USD. Applying the 2 statements concludes the demise of the country.

Interesting to note Ari's 2 year old statement that buying gold is "shorting the dollar"; is this to say 'shorting the US of A'.

Harris makes valid points. Will America secure oil (aka economy)? 'Hyperpower' and 'collassal mistake' is not far from the truth. It begets oil high/oil low which begets gold high/gold low. Oh the 'Bermuda triangle' of USD/oil/gold.

Interesting that in former generations gold was the reserve currency, now it is oil. As we see 2006/2008 in sight, the theoretical peaking of world oil production, PANIC begins to settle in. He who holds the oil makes the rules.

Interesting, connecting the dots, that a bet on gold implies the 'collassal mistake'. How can one draw any other conclusion?? Really.

POG, 'derived' from USD, 'derived' from POO, 'derived' from GUNS?

Guns & Gold.......get you some.

silvercollector

(04/19/2003; 06:33:49 MDT - Msg ID: 101572)

The Nov. 2002 article from Harris

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/charris041903.html

Roccoco

(04/19/2003; 09:25:16 MDT - Msg ID: 101573)

One Down, 49 to go...

www.leg.state.nv.us/72nd/bills/ab/ab532.html Saw this on gold stock chat... I believe if sucessfull, this is a great way for the people of these great UNITED States to retrieve their sovereignty; insist on returning to species money which our constituion outlinded. I wonder how the 'powers that be' will smash this uprising if this becomes NV law.

roccoco

steady

(04/19/2003; 11:08:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101574)

nevada silver bill

rocco that bill died in committie on the 11thof april. its dead. done over with. back to 50 more states.

Goldendome

(04/19/2003; 11:25:50 MDT - Msg ID: 101575)

Belgian: Your # 101567

Yes, I agree with your analysis of my question: "Does U.S. monetary inflation matter, when being offset by goods deflation from Asia...and the World's reserve currency resides with the hands-down supreme world military power?"

Your answer is concise and on the mark, IMO.
Thanks for the kind words. I try to follow your "suggestion" whenever possible to do so.

Goldendome

Waverider

(04/19/2003; 11:53:37 MDT - Msg ID: 101576)

Nevsun geologist murdered in Eritrean 'terrorist' attack

http://globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20030418.rnevs0418/BNStory/BusinessSnip:
"A geologist working for Vancouver-based [gold exploration]Nevsun Resources Ltd. has been killed in Eritrea by what the Eritrean government described as a terrorist attack. "On Saturday, a terrorist group sponsored by the government of Sudan sneaked into the environs of Bisha, western Eritrea, from Sudanese territory and murdered in cold blood Mr. Timothy Nutt, a British national working in the area," the ministry said in a statement. "It is clear that this cowardly act of terror is designed to discourage investment in Eritrea by terrorizing foreign investors."

Waverider: ~ Black Blade - I hope you don't receive an "offer you can't refuse" for gold exploration in some harry part of Africa ;o)

(04/19/2003; 12:10:30 MDT - Msg ID: 101577)

According to unverified rumours circulating in the region,

Iraq is to be divided into three; namely, diesel, unleaded and LPG.

mikal

(04/19/2003; 13:04:41 MDT - Msg ID: 101578)

@Waverider

Re: msg#101565
Thank you! As I reread your powerful, lilting poem, I regret I never printed it or nominated it to the Hall of Fame.
But better late than never; for everything there is a season.
It's a beautifully crafted tribute to all, undulating with rythmic cadence like a timeless song riding a wave.

mikal

(04/19/2003; 13:08:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101579)

@All

May I have three seconds to nominate Waverider's triumphant birthday tribute for inclusion in the HOF?

Waverider

(04/19/2003; 13:44:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101580)

Mikal

I feel truly flattered and honored by your kind words. You had asked me previously if I had a poem that had won in an essay competition, and in fact this was the one. My apologies for not answering your question when you originally asked it some weeks back. Having come second, this particular poem can be found in the HOF "2002 Forum Anniversary Contest" right under the "Haikus about Gold".

I too have times when I regret not having copied posts for later reference. As it is I keep a number of files on various topics covered here, but inevitably the one that I wish to refer to isn't in my folders! C'est la vie! I always appreciate it when Randy posts articles, etc. from the HOF because I know for myself there's so much reading on the forum every day that I rarely have opportunity to get into the archives. We're so fortunate to have the wealth of information and wisdom that's accrued at this fine site. Thanks again Mikal for your kind words - they're appreciated.

Waverider

TownCrier

(04/19/2003; 14:01:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101581)

mikal, Waverider's poem is already there

You will find it located in the second yellow-colored box right below the top box containing the haikus toward which I directed you yesterday, within the Hall of Fame index. Click on "2002 Forum Anniversary Contest".

Again, the link to the Hall of Fame index is located near the top of the discussion forum pages (archives and post pages included) to the right of the "Post a New Message" link location.

Enjoy your exploration in that gilded reading room.

R.

Black Blade

(04/19/2003; 14:50:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101583)

Gold's investment appeal growing

http://www.mips1.net/mgeg03.nsf/Current/85256C6E003D20F542256D090066FE12?OpenDocument
By: David McKay
Posted: 2003/04/15 Tue 20:41 ZE2 | � Mineweb 1997-2003

ZURICH - Gold's cachet as a viable part of an investment portfolio was improving amid the combined affects of deregulation and changes in investment fashions, as well as crucial alterations in the metal's negative historical legacy, according to Graham Birch, chief investment officer of Merrill Lynch Investment Managers.

Birch, speaking at the European Gold Forum in Switzerland this week, said the fact that gold had not been part of index benchmarks had given it a negative investment image in the past. However, this was becoming less important particularly as diversification among fund and money managers was "back in fashion". As a result, traditional non-holders of gold were now including it in their investment decisions as an alternative investment.

Interestingly, CALPERS, the Californian retirement fund, had dedicated more of its asset allocation to �alternative assets� of which gold could form a part, according to Trevor Steel, a partner at BakerSteel Capital Managers. Steel was also presenting at the conference. The drive towards alternative investment was a result of softer equity markets and world political uncertainty, he said.

In building his case, Birch cited some anecdotal evidence. The amount of inquiries at Merrill Lynch were increasingly related to gold. Roughly five percent of inquiries at the fund manager in 2003 had been related to gold compared to less than one percent in 2001, Birch said. "Of course, this means that 95 percent of inquiries received by us are not about gold, but the attitude to gold is changing nonetheless," he said.

Traditional problems in accessing and owning gold were also being broached in a trend Birch characterised as the custodisation of gold. Birch is generally supportive of the World Gold Council's (WGC's) gold-backed equity, recently listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. Barriers to entry in holding gold bullion, including costs, were being lowered. This contributed towards a better image for gold as an investment friendly vehicle.

The deregulation of the Chinese market was another contributing factor in widening gold's investment appeal. The jewellery market had been deregulated in China with the investment market likely to be opened up soon. Birch noted there was roughly $1 trillion dollars on deposit in China. If 0.1 percent of this amount was invested by the Chinese in gold, some 100 tonnes of additional demand for gold would be created.

"Gold investment demand is bound to continue upwards off its very low base," Birch said of recent figures from Gold Fields Mineral Services which identified roughly 400 tonnes of world investment demand in its 2002 review. However, Birch said there would have to be further erosion in the value of paper assets before the herd-mentality investment into gold kicked in.

Hedge Funds

BakerSteel Capital Managers� Trevor Steel believed that investors would be availed of greater opportunities in the gold market partly owing to the activities of hedge funds. "Love them or hate them, hedge funds are here to stay. We have to learn to live with them," he said of the investment products whose managers frequently shorted mining stocks.

Shorting introduced volatility into the gold market which, in turn, led to increased opportunities. This was particularly true for companies hoping to conclude mining finance deals such as Durban Roodepoort Deep. The South African gold producer recently placed the majority of its $64 million convertible bond with European hedge fund managers. Hedge fund activity was, broadly speaking, to be welcomed in the gold market because of its aggressive attitude, Steel said.

According to Frank Holmes, chief executive of US Global Investors, the full impact of the September 11 atrocity in New York, was only just beginning to be understood. It had prefaced major changes in US foreign policy, including the movement of money, which was positive for gold, he said.

Black Blade: This information has been swirling around for a while now. I am still uncertain as what the WGC backed gold really is for certain. I imagine that it is a bullion storage with each share representing a fraction of an ounce in storage somewhere. It sounds interesting as far as the large funds are concerned but I would hope that there are periodic audits and gold is added as shares are added if this is the case. As for myself and as far as individual investors are concerned, holding the real deal removes this uncertainty. Asian investment appears to be growing by leaps and bounds and central banks in the Far East and Russia are accumulating gold in deference to dollars. Given the state of the global economy and the obvious deteriorating going forward it is only logical that huge funds seek alternative investments for diversification if nothing else and for a solid "insurance" position in the least. I was not aware that CALpers was interested in possibly following this course of action. Now that is news!

BTW, I understand that we have permission to post these articles. So I bring this one in its entirety due to the potential of huge investment demand as the equities markets struggle in the beginning stages of a long-term crippling economic recession.

Black Blade

(04/19/2003; 15:23:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101584)

Hedges to be sheared in 2003

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256D04003A1190?OpenDocument
By: David McKay
Posted: 2003/04/10 Thu 12:00 ZE2 | � Mineweb 1997-2003

JOHANNESBURG � The world's gold producers are expected to continue to reduce their hedge books in 2003 contributing as much as 325 tonnes to physical demand, Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), the UK metals consultancy said. Releasing the publication of its Gold Survey 2003, GFMS said there was little incentive to continue hedging this year owing to the low contango. "De-hedging is expected to continue in the current year, perhaps contributing as much as 325 tonnes to physical demand," GFMS said.

A 325 tonne reduction in the global hedge book is significant but it is 100 tonnes less than the contraction in hedging in 2002.

GFMS said the world's gold hedging book contracted 423 tonnes in 2002, the third consecutive year producers have contributed to gold demand through hedging. GFMS termed the size of the reduction in hedging contracts as "phenomenal"; in fact, the reduction in hedging in the precious year was only 151 tonnes and a mere 15 tonnes in 2000.

"The scale-back was largely achieved through scheduled delivery into outstanding contracts (with no fresh hedging carried out), although hedge book restructuring and producer buy-backs were also important," the consultancy said.

Four factors were behind the contraction in the total hedge book including the 14 percent year-on-year increase in the dollar price of gold during 2000. There was also the perception that the gold price "had some way to go", GFMS said.

Secondly, the gold price contango � the profit speculators make on leasing gold � became less attractive as interest rates fell. Thirdly, investors took a shine to companies that were exposed to the spot price of gold: "Investors in mining stocks, many of whom are seeking a leveraged play on the gold price, have shunned heavily-hedged companies in favour of those with exposure to the gold price," GFMS said.

Finally, industry consolidation in 2002 resulted in a degree of hedge book restructuring that further reduced the outstanding position, it said.

Black Blade: With "real" interest rates negative, the "Gold Carry Trade" dead on arrival, and the long-term gold bull market it is obvious that dehedging will continue for some time yet. A few mega-hedgers are struggling to unwind positions, some are off-setting hedges with puts for example (a zero sum game), and some actually have a huge premium to the price on some existing hedges that give them good gains and some breathing room (at least for the time being). However, gold mine investors invest for the potential of outsize gains as the POG rises and hedging limits those gains. As a result investors vote with their feet and wallets. I see no return to hedging (forward sales) in the current economic environment and especially as the US dollar weakens (over-valued by at least 15% to 20%) and the global economy struggles and equities suffer in a long-term secular bear market. "Interesting Times"

BTW, MK touches on the GFMS report on his commentary page (accessible link above).

Gotta go to the gym for a couple of hours! Healthy body � healthy min�..well, healthy body anyway.

mikal

(04/19/2003; 16:23:18 MDT - Msg ID: 101585)

Banking, behind the lies

http://www.etherzone.com/2003/cron041803.shtml
MONEY MONEY EVERYWHERE
THE WORLD'S MOST LUCRATIVE SLAVE STATE, AMERICA
By: Al Cronkrite -Excerpts:
"God has always desired to govern those whom He chooses. The Laws given to Moses were the basis for that government. Absence of government, a utopian scheme that is prevalent in Anarchism and Libertarianism, is similar to the idea that a society can live in religious neutrality. Law, Government, and religion is inevitable. The character of the triumvirate remains variable.....

The financial dealings of our government and banks are purposefully esoteric. With the advent of Central Banks and fractional reserve banking, hiding hegemony, manipulation, and thievery has become an everyday occurrence. Since the house of Pisano and Tiepolo built the first model of modern day banks in Venice in the Fourteenth Century, banks have been a source of temptation for their owners. That first bank became insolvent through the misuse of its funds and reorganized into the Banco della Piazza Del Rialto which became an honest and highly revered bank for a short period of time until the government needed additional funds and acquired them by befouling the banking system.
When the Bauer family in Germany changed their name to Rothchild to coincide with the red shield (roth schild) that adorned the exterior of their Frankfurt bank, a name was given to the most cunning manipulation of money and banking the world has ever known.�
Mayer Amschel Rothchild died in 1812; he left a will designed to perpetuate the wealth and independent power he and his five sons had accumulated. Among other directives, he recommended that family members marry cousins in order to keep the fortune within the family. It was said of the Rothchilds, "the family that preys together stays together."
The roots of the Rothchild dynasty were fraudulent and their continued international crypto-manipulation is rooted in theft.
As with drugs, all of the blame cannot be placed on the supplier. Shrewdness was amply flavored with brilliance and when the Rothchilds devised the scheme of converting debt into money, many acquisitive nations became addicted.
Sating the ambitions of rulers with egos requires large sums of money. In addition to stealing wealth through currency inflation, dishonest rulers have entered the lucrative drug trade, callously debilitating their citizens.
Wars result in spoils and the winner has access to them. According to the Newhouse News Service, Saddam Hussein has amassed a sizeable fortune, which will be seized by the British-America coalition. There could be as much as $20 billion dollars hidden around the world.
Much talk is heard about returning the oil fields to the Iraqi citizens. There may be some truth to that statement but we can be sure that there will be huge outside profits and many strings attached to the return.
It is interesting to note that when God provided the miraculous entrance into the Promised Land for His people, he ordered the destruction of everything, thereby removing the spoils as an incentive for obedience. Saul was covetous, he disobeyed, and he retained the best of the livestock and allowed the king to live. Samuel obediently slew the king. Saul begged to be forgiven but his replacement as king was formalized.
The Bible contains an abundance of scripture referring to the need to maintain honest and exact weights and measures.
Lev. 19:35-36;
Deut. 25:13:16;
Prov. 11:1;
16:11;
20:10, 23.
Dishonest manipulation of value creates an injustice and is a criminal offense. Justice is a prerequisite to freedom. Without it, freedom cannot be maintained.
Mayer Amschel Rothchild is quoted as having said, "Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws". This dishonest quest for power has resulted in the deaths of millions and a steady deterioration in the world's social structure.
Peter Kershaw in his book "Economic Solutions" lists the ten primary stockholders in our Federal Reserve banking system: 1) Rothchild Family, London; 2) Rothchild Family, Berlin; 3) Lazard Brothers, Paris; 4) Israel Seiff, Italy; 5) Kuhn-Loeb, Germany; 6) Warburgs, Amsterdam; 7) Warburgs, Hamburg; 8) Lehman Brothers, New York; 9) Goldman & Sachs, New York; 10) Rockefeller Family, New York.
America has sunk deep into the mire.
Being used to a high standard of living, as women entered the work force, most Americans did not notice that it was now taking two salaries to provide what one had previously supplied. Couples added the oarsman and paddled harder. Taxes also continued to climb. Even as the standard of living began to plummet, Americans failed to notice. Many of them were too busy to notice. They continue to divide half of the money they earn with a government that pays a substantial portion of it to the International Bankers. In upscale America, husbands and wives combine for 120 hours of work to maintain their standard of living even as jobs that will allow that life style continue to diminish.
International bankers, who are protected from losses by American taxpayers, regularly finance globalism. During the Clinton Administration $50 billion was given to Mexico which allowed them to pay off defaulted loans to Goldman Sachs.
David Rockefeller's Chase Manhattan Bank owns 32% of the stock in the New York Federal Reserve Bank. The group headed by that Bank finances our government. He is also the founder of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank which counts as members most key government officials and advisors and which consistently sets governmental policy. David Rockefeller can both establish and demolish kingdoms.
With the willing participation of our citizens, America has become the world's largest and most lucrative slave state. Willing workers toil from dawn to dusk with more than half of their wages being stolen by an untethered evil cabal. This fete has been carefully engineered over many years. Little by little unnoticeable freedoms have been usurped and the structure for a police state has been built. Real freedom has been unknown in America for several decades. The candidates of the two political parties are pre-selected, and the voting itself is manipulated. Congressmen know the folly of bucking the establishment. They go along to get along. There is only one Ron Paul in the Congress. He gets some cooperation but most are too dishonest to join in his attempts to bring back Constitutional government.
As long as conditions remain as they are, all efforts to change the system will fail. Cancer cannot be stopped by complaining about the pain."
"Published originally at EtherZone.com : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact."

TownCrier

(04/19/2003; 17:13:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101586)

Money, gold, and the nature of international assets

http://finance.lycos.com/home/news/story.asp?symbols=&story=33891830DOHA, Qatar (AP) --
...the so-called Saddam dinar, which has lost half its value with the collapse of the Iraqi government, could soon go the way of the Confederate dollar.

Establishing a stable currency is seen as key to rekindling Iraq's tattered economy...

The dinar was officially pegged at a rate of just over 3 to the dollar. But it traded at around 2,500 to the dollar on the black market before the war and has plummeted to 3,500 with the ousting of Saddam.

Even before the war, devaluation was a problem for the dinar. Its strength was drained by a decade of sanctions imposed after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, spiraling foreign debt and tumbling oil revenues linked in part to a neglected infrastructure.

Compensating for the plunge, Saddam's government unveiled the first 10,000-dinar note just last year so people wouldn't need stacks of cash to go shopping.

As a stopgap, the United States flew in $20 million of its own currency last week to pay firefighters, police, electrical workers and other civil servants.

Public employees returning to work will get an "emergency payment" of $20 as early as next week, said an official at the Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance, which is revamping the Iraqi monetary system.

The cash injection comes from the $1.6 billion in Iraqi assets seized last month by President Bush.

------(see url for full article)------

Do you think the entire $1.6 billion worth of Iraqi's seized assets were originally in the form of U.S. dollars? Well... whatever form these assets were before the seizure, it'll be in the form of U.S. dollars that they are returned. Nifty trick, eh?

I am not saying that any of this was in the form of gold, but this example supports FOA's original contention to the effect that no law can compel international gold delivery under international contact. Recognizing this quirkish truth of sovereignty, the unique quality of in-hand physical gold would be reinforced by removing all doubt about it and officially codifying this uncertainty as an international fact. In simple terms, it would read: Paper-gold buyers and "owners" beware.

R.

Black Blade

(04/19/2003; 17:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101587)

Mikal � "Interesting" Post

Some points in addition:

"God has always desired to govern those whom He chooses. The Laws given to Moses were the basis for that government. Absence of government, a utopian scheme that is prevalent in Anarchism and Libertarianism, is similar to the idea that a society can live in religious neutrality. Law, Government, and religion is inevitable. The character of the triumvirate remains variable.....

Black Blade: Actually, Libertarian political philosophy is essentially "Jeffersonian" political philosophy that is rooted in what Ayn Rand called "Objectivism" and is a market oriented approach.

The candidates of the two political parties are pre-selected, and the voting itself is manipulated. Congressmen know the folly of bucking the establishment. They go along to get along. There is only one Ron Paul in the Congress. He gets some cooperation but most are too dishonest to join in his attempts to bring back Constitutional government.

Black Blade: Congressman Ron Paul is a Libertarian who runs on the combined Libertarian/Republican ticket. In fact he was once the Libertarian candidate for president.

Peter Kershaw in his book "Economic Solutions" lists the ten primary stockholders in our Federal Reserve banking system: 1) Rothchild Family, London; 2) Rothchild Family, Berlin; 3) Lazard Brothers, Paris; 4) Israel Seiff, Italy; 5) Kuhn-Loeb, Germany; 6) Warburgs, Amsterdam; 7) Warburgs, Hamburg; 8) Lehman Brothers, New York; 9) Goldman & Sachs, New York; 10) Rockefeller Family, New York.

Black Blade: This may be a little outdated as there were a couple of mergers and transfers along the way over the last few years. I am not exactly sure who the primary owners of the Federal Reserve are at present. What is important to remember is that the Federal Reserve is privately owned or indirectly owned by shareholders and these are the forces that control US monetary policy.

Being used to a high standard of living, as women entered the work force, most Americans did not notice that it was now taking two salaries to provide what one had previously supplied. Couples added the oarsman and paddled harder. Taxes also continued to climb. Even as the standard of living began to plummet, Americans failed to notice. Many of them were too busy to notice. They continue to divide half of the money they earn with a government that pays a substantial portion of it to the International Bankers. In upscale America, husbands and wives combine for 120 hours of work to maintain their standard of living even as jobs that will allow that life style continue to diminish.

Black Blade: It gets even worse. I saw a study over a year ago that points out that once the additional costs of both husbands and wives working (including such expenses as child day care, etc.) are calculated into the equation the gain is minimal and in some cases nonexistent.

With the willing participation of our citizens, America has become the world's largest and most lucrative slave state. Willing workers toil from dawn to dusk with more than half of their wages being stolen by an untethered evil cabal. This fete has been carefully engineered over many years. Little by little unnoticeable freedoms have been usurped and the structure for a police state has been built. Real freedom has been unknown in America for several decades.

Black Blade: Stating the obvious. There are no truly "free" nations in the world. Of course there are those who go to absurd extremes to define "free". But freedom to live ones life in any manner they choose as long as they do not infringe on the rights of others to do the same is a good definition. However, people (including Americans for example) despise and abhor freedom for some reason. It is just natural that there exists a "tribal" nature of individuals or groups of individuals who wish to exert control over the lives of others. Like minded individuals band together into political parties, organizations, religions, and even into cultural, ethnic and racial social groups for this express purpose. Amazingly they do so in the name of "freedom". This has been the nature of man since the beginning of recorded history.

TownCrier

(04/19/2003; 18:01:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101588)

Economic View: The new dynamic in Europe

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/comment/story.jsp?story=398651(The Independent) 20 April 2003 -- The pre-Easter European summit in Athens was rightly hailed as a historic event, with the signing up of 10 new members from central and eastern Europe and the Mediterranean. It should be good news for the new members and the present ones alike.

A glance at [...] growth in a wide variety of countries last year demonstrates three things. The first is that only a handful of the larger developed countries, such as Canada and Australia, managed to produce decent growth. A second is that real growth happened outside the established developed world � in China, Russia and so on. And a third, intriguingly, is that within Europe the accession countries did much better than the EU ones, especially those in the eurozone.

There is a tendency among apologists for European underperformance to explain it away as the logical consequence of a relatively rich region, with an ageing population, that chooses to have more leisure instead of higher pay. Continental Europeans work the shortest hours of any people in the world and would be loth to change that. They also have, per hour worked, some of the highest levels of productivity. But there is a high social cost to this in the form of the highest unemployment in the developed world.

...But now there is a further opportunity for change: the accession of countries with a much better growth record.

Now the tail will not wag the dog. Do not expect these countries to have a radical impact on Europe's performance. They are too small and in any case much of their own faster growth can be attributed to catch-up. But they could, if the rest of Europe wanted, act as a catalyst.

...Europe -- or rather "old" Europe -- should look at its more successful economies, including those of the accession countries. What do they have in common?

...flexibility...

Within many of the accession countries, it is entrepreneurs who have transformed the economies, not established private sector businesses.

...It would be wonderful were enlargement to transform Europe into a more vibrant economy � wonderful for social reasons as well as economic ones. The rising unemployment rates are deeply divisive, splitting insiders in well-paid jobs from outsiders, often immigrants, on the margins. While it would be naive to expect too much of enlargement, it should at the margin lift European economic growth. And in economics it is what happens at the margin that counts.

-----(see url for the full text)----

With EU increasing in size and the euro at its core, dollar hegemony incrementally loses its international grip, and with it it's resistance to market discipline on national economic fundamentals. Gold will see you through.

R.

steady

(04/19/2003; 18:02:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101589)

ron paul

im proud to live in the distric that ron paul represents. and i voted for him!
silver and gold
honest money for
honest people!

Black Blade

(04/19/2003; 18:55:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101590)

Street Loses Stomach for Risk

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030419/column_stocks_week_2.html
Snippit:

Investors who've had their sights set on a repeat of the post-Gulf War rally in 1991 have been deeply disappointed. Initially, stocks chalked up gains as the 2003 Gulf War sequel unfolded. But weeks after the U.S.-led blitz proved to be more of a walk in the park, the market has gone limp. The popular media will tell you the problem is that money traders have been unwilling to get their courage up in the face of lingering uncertainties about the economy and corporate earnings. But more importantly, clear signs emerged this week that President Bush may use Iraq as a template for a foreign policy model that resorts to wars against countries he views as "rogue states." A half dozen countries in the oil-rich Gulf this week told Washington to quit threatening Syria. So it's plain to see the stakes are big and they're getting bigger. The United States may be the last superpower. But the reality is Arab countries have economic power in crude oil. Ironically Bush, who is now concentrating on rebuilding the U.S. economy in the prelude to his 2004 re-election just 18 months from now, may have to cool down his war rhetoric. Big oil-producing countries in the Middle East have the ability to sink his re-election bid by inflicting further damage on the economy by refusing to cooperate to keep oil prices low. History is full of examples that high oil prices have been economy killers.

"Circumstances were quite different in 1991," says Jeffrey Hirsch, publisher of the Stock Trader's Almanac. "No stock market bubble had recently burst back then, there wasn't any run-up in stock prices prior to the war, the economy was not bloated with overcapacity, and sentiment has been much more depressed during the preceding bear market." Making matters worse, Corporate America's forecasts are more gloomy than they were at the depths of the recession. It's also troubling that most economists have lost their crystal balls. They can't get a clear picture of the economy. Not surprisingly, investors are being whiplashed by the stock market's tremendous volatility. Many have lowered their expectations of an economic recovery or a sustained rebound in stocks. Chief executive officers at the nation's biggest companies believe the economic recovery has run out of gas. The CEOs, according to a poll of 120 members of the influential Business Roundtable, expect the economy to remain weak through the end of the year. Their forecast for growth this year of only 2.2 percent is well below the 3.0 percent needed to generate jobs.

Black Blade: I seriously doubt that Bush will push for military action against Syria or Iran because they are not the risk that Iraq was and there are those in power who are rational enough to discuss diplomatic solutions. The Mullahs of Iran have lost the confidence of the people and could easily lose grasp of their tyrannical control. Syria's dictator (president?) Bashar Assad is less likely than his father to stir up the pot so to speak. In fact under his rule the Syrian secret police have assisted and cooperated with US law enforcement in tracking down al Qaeda terrorists and others since 9-11. Yet even though they are a bit perturbed that they lost their 200,000 bbl/day oil supply from Iraq recently, they have no compelling interest to harbor Saddam or his people. The fly in the ointment here is that Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz told the Tel Aviv newspaper Maariv: ''We have a long list of issues we are thinking of demanding of the Syrians, and it would be best done through the Americans.'' Mofaz's Hebrew-language interview was not widely distributed in Washington, but a few members of Congress who learned of it were stunned by its audacity.

The US must learn to walk on eggshells in the Middle East for a time and work hard to establish confidence that their intentions truly are to "liberate" and restore infrastructure for a new "democratic" government. This could be "mission impossible" in a region where close US ties to Israel and absolute dependence on "cheap oil" raises suspicions. Still, this is the one and possibly the only chance the Iraqi people have to become the first truly Arab "representative republic". They will have to rise to the opportunity and above tribal instincts and work together in a government devoid of religious domination lest they devolve into just another totalitarian Islamic state. The real test is whether the major Middle East OPEC players will dictate terms to the US-UK alliance using the "oil weapon" as has been suggested by some. And all these unknowns are happening at a time when the global economy is crumbling into a long-term economic depression. "Interesting Times"

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/19/2003; 18:58:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101591)

In bookstores it retails for $14.95. But you know the author! Get it direct from MK for $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Black Blade

(04/19/2003; 20:07:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101592)

Iraqi currency to get facelift in bid to bolster economy

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/030419/me_fin_iraq_money_matters_1.html
Snippit:

Establishing a stable currency is seen as key to rekindling Iraq's tattered economy and rebuilding a national identity. But many hurdles remain, including the lack of an Iraqi government and a general mistrust of anything other than U.S. greenbacks. Before the war, one dinar was officially worth about US$3. But its real rate went in the opposite direction, many times over -- it was traded at around 2,500 to the dollar on the black market, and has plummeted to 3,500 with the ousting of Saddam. Merchants that have opened shops are already jacking up prices to compensate for the currency's hollowed-out value.

Black Blade: This is the same story as posted by Townie but from a different source. I just saw a report where tens of thousands of Iraqis are swarming around centers where coalition forces and foreign reps are located and they are seeking work in the expected new job market. Quite a contrast to yesterday's protest by Sunni Arabs in Mosul. Apparently the US will deliver $millions in FNRs almost immediately.

I have been to a few countries where currency devaluation occurred. I usually bypass the "official" currency exchanges and trade on the so-called black market or simply exchange US dollars for goods (except where it is punishable by severe penalties of course). A few years ago I worked in Myanmar and the black market rate was $1 to 172 kyat. By the time I was last there the rate ballooned to $1 to about 2,000 kyat. Oh yeah, the government's "official" rate, then and now - $1 to 6 kyat. I have seen the same thing in Laos, Indonesia, etc. Though the US dollar is preferred over the local currency, I noticed that Gold is vastly considered superior in these countries. In some of the more rural places I would show some locals a dollar and they could not believe that people actually would use such a piece of paper for exchange. Quite funny when you think about it.

The Invisible Hand

(04/19/2003; 20:15:37 MDT - Msg ID: 101593)

British Sunday press still no clue to reason of war

Posturing time is over - the road through Baghdad leads straight to the euro
Whereas The Guardian reported on Saturday that Tony Blair is facing the threat of a fresh rebellion from Labour backbenchers who are growing increasingly alarmed that the failure to uncover weapons of mass destruction in Iraq will confirm that the war was illegal, The Independent says on Sunday that the US has rushed into war to suit its US military and domestic electoral timetable, but doesn't say what the points are for which that timetable is set.

The Telegraph quotes however, be it disapprovingly, a UK minister as saying the road through Baghdad leads straight to the euro. What he means is probably that it leads to UK euro entry in mind, but why should we not interpret it in Another way? But wait a moment, if Britain joins the euro, will the US of A not be isolated? Heads we win, tails you lose. Contrary to the Clark paper, I quoted earlier today, there will then be no way to realise Clark's patriotic dream of introducing a dollar/euro currency `trading band' with reserve status parity, and a dual OPEC oil transaction standard, as one of these currencies will have disappeared.

The Observer (the Sunday edition of The Guardian) hasn't yet changed its webpage (www.observer.co.uk) from last week's.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,939535,00.html
SNIP
Tony Blair is facing the threat of a fresh rebellion from Labour backbenchers who are growing increasingly alarmed that the failure to uncover weapons of mass destruction in Iraq will confirm that the war was illegal.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=398837
SNIPS
So where are they? In case we forget, distracted by the thought of thousands of dead Iraqi civilians, looted museums and gathering political chaos, the proclaimed purpose of this war, vainly pursued by Britain and the US through the United Nations, was to disarm Saddam Hussein and to destroy weapons of mass destruction deemed a menace to the entire world
�
Remember Colin Powell at the Security Council two months ago (though today it seems another age on another planet): the charts, the grainy intelligence satellite pictures, the crackly tapes of the intercepted phone conversations among Iraqi officials? How plausible it all sounded, especially when propounded by the most plausible figure in the Bush administration.
�
If only for the credibility and reputation of our country, this newspaper hopes that enough weapons of mass destruction will be discovered to justify a war that has grievously weakened the UN, strained the Atlantic alliance and split the European Union.
But they'd better be found pretty soon. Having rushed into war to suit its own military and domestic electoral timetable, the Bush administration now has the nerve to claim that a year may be required to establish the whereabouts of the WMD � and that it may never do so unless led to them by co-operative Iraqis. But no longer can London and Washington rely simply on the impossibility for the former Iraqi regime to prove a negative, that the weapons do not exist. It is up to the "coalition" of two to provide proof positive that they do.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2003/04/20/do2003.xml&sSheet=/portal/2003/04/20/ixportal.html
SNIPS
As Mr Blair reflected on victory in Iraq, so one could see him consciously discarding the trappings of the war leader and resuming the posture of the ordinary family man.
�
On the day that Saddam's statue toppled in the Iraqi capital, a minister involved in the war told me excitedly that "the road through Baghdad leads straight to the euro"

Black Blade

(04/19/2003; 21:00:01 MDT - Msg ID: 101594)

WGC Plan � Gold Bullion Limited

Gold Bullion Limited gives shareholders one tenth of an ounce of gold bullion for each gold security. The gold bars are kept in a vault in London by HSBC. There will always be an absolute matching of the number of shares on issue and the amount of gold held in the vaults. There are a number of investors, institutional investors, long-term funds, that perhaps can't invest in physical metal, but they can invest in equities and securities that are listed and that have a daily trading price. And it may well be that this equity gives them the opportunity to invest in physical metal. The price of Gold Bullion Limited is directly linked to the price of spot gold.

Black Blade: This topic is gaining momentum in the gold "press" but there are still a number of questions about this. As far as large institutional funds (mutual funds, annuity funds, etc.) and some hedge funds are concerned this may be a good thing but for the individual who is commonly at the bottom of the food chain when things don't quite work out the "real deal" is the "better deal". The individual can also select the type (form) of the physical metal and have ready access with limited reporting requirements. The "equity" will supposedly not be subject to derivative instruments as well so the gaming as is common with the Comex plays should be rather difficult. I wonder if the gold for this "equity" will come directly from producers (actually through refiners), the so called "central bank sales" (such as the Swiss sales program), or be purchased from the open market. If this concept flies and comes available on the world's major stock exchanges it could have the effect of taking a huge supply of gold out of the open market where demand exceeds supply as Goldcorp CEO Rob McEwen recently found out. Still, there are certain to be many restrictive regulations involved and Wall Street will likely be appalled to find another competitor drawing funds away from stocks if this plan somehow is allowed in the U.S. The bankers and investment houses are certain to fight tooth and nail to stop it. As for myself, I will keep the "real deal" with ready access in my portfolio rather than a promise on a piece of paper that there is some gold sitting in an HSBC vault in London. After all, wasn't that what the US dollar was at one time? - A promise that it represented gold sitting in a vault somewhere. Hmmm�

Black Blade

(04/19/2003; 21:41:01 MDT - Msg ID: 101595)

Now to repair the Iraqi economy

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ED19Ak03.html
Snippit:

PRAGUE - The United States government is literally flying in millions of dollars to Iraq - in $1 and $5 denominations - as part of plans to rebuild that country's war-torn economy. The money, taken from frozen Iraqi assets held in the US, will be doled out to public servants in the form of onetime, $20 payments as an inducement for them to come to work. The hope is that the money will move its way through private transactions and ultimately aid efforts to build a functioning market economy - a goal economists say is probably years away.

The US-based Council on Foreign Relations, in a recent report titled "Iraq: The Day After", outlined a series of initial steps for rebuilding the economy. The author of the report was not immediately available for comment, but the report is expected to guide US decision-makers in the early days. The first step, the report says, is to stimulate demand by creating jobs in the private sector and ensuring wages for workers in the public sector (government workers, police, health care workers) are paid on time. This is what the airlift of dollar bills is expected to do in the short term. The report then says that financial institutions must be revived to provide Iraqis with access to capital. Iraq, the report says, had a "relatively sophisticated" financial sector that declined during Saddam's rule.

But any effort to develop the Iraqi economy will be hampered by the country's formidable debt. Estimates of Iraq's debt to commercial banks and governments amount to between $60 million and $120 billion (sources vary widely). The country's total external debt, including war reparations to Kuwait and Iran and unresolved compensation claims, amounts to something like $400 billion, although much of this likely will never be paid. Iraq stopped servicing its debt around a decade ago and has few resources to start making those payments now, but all sides agree a framework must be put in place to identify the debt and work out a reasonable time frame for paying it back.

The International Monetary Fund and World Bank, at a meeting last weekend in Washington, said that they would be willing to assist in the effort, but said a UN mandate would be needed first. Creditor countries like Russia, France and Germany, which are owed billions of dollars, have indicated they would not forgive Iraq's debts outright, but would be willing reschedule the repayment timetable. In spite of the fact that Iraq sits atop the world's second-biggest known oil reserves - after Saudi Arabia - it's not clear how much of the initial reconstruction can be financed from oil revenue. Iraq's oil infrastructure is badly depleted and much of the proceeds from oil sales will go toward repairing the industry and emergency humanitarian needs. Over time, of course, Iraq's oil output can be expected to rise, making more money available for direct reconstruction. Much of that money, however, could be siphoned off to pay back debts.

Black Blade: Somehow I have these visions of large US aircraft flying over Iraqi cities and fluttering dollar bills floating down from the skies courtesy of the US taxpayer. Hmmm�

Goldilox

(04/19/2003; 22:37:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101596)

Repairing the Iraqi economy

@BB:

Your vision of $$ leaflets is cute, but I think the reality is more like payouts for "loyal" Iraqi participants. Civil rest (or unrest) may very well depend on how reasonably these are distributed. Given 3 or 4 strong tribal influences, some balance is probably prudent. Empty bellies are often the strongest motivation for civil disobedience.

The Invisible Hand

(04/20/2003; 01:02:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101597)

Revolution, ethnic cleansing and sharia law!

HEADLINES
http://www.observer.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,940160,00.html
Arabs flee revenge of the Kurds
For decades, Saddam 'Arabised' northern Iraq. Now his ethnic cleansing is being reversed, with bloody results

http://www.observer.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,940202,00.html
Revolution city
Now the war is over, Iraq's downtrodden Shia majority is rising up. It speaks with many voices, but its demand is simple - Islamic government under sharia law
===
Yeah, they achieved revolution, ethnic cleansing and sharia law, so they can cut more hands.
I am still looking for the reason for this war.
As Aristotle pointed out, marines with machine guns are guarding an estimated $1 billion in gold in Baghdad's banking district, securing nine massive vaults that withstood rocket-propelled grenade hits by thieves.
Aristotle (4/18/03; 15:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 101534)
Perspective boys and girls, perspective! ! !
http://news.nasdaq.com/news/newsStory.aspx?&cpath=20030418\ACQDJON200304181444DOWJONESDJONLINE000234.htm

TownCrier

(04/20/2003; 01:48:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101598)

HEADLINE: Worth his weight in gold

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2003/4/20/business/mutomei&sec=businessJEWELLER Datuk Ng Teck Fong, the executive chairman of Tomei Gold and Jewellery Corporation, may now run a company with an annual turnover of about RM150mil but he will never forget his humble beginnings in a small village in Malacca.�

"I lost my father when I was four years old. I was the youngest in the family, with five brothers and five sisters. We all had to help our mother who was the sole breadwinner," Ng recalls.�

To survive, they made tofu (beancurd) and also reared pigs in their village at Kampung Bacang. �

"With a tight budget, we were very careful with spending and the importance of savings and education was inculcated in us.��

...He finished his studies in 1966, obtaining a degree in chemistry at Cheng Kung University.�

"I wanted to study chemistry because I did well in the subject at High School,�� said Ng, 66.

With Ng's academic knowledge and his brother's skills at crafting gold jewellery that were well received, the business prospered and they began to open up outlets in Petaling Jaya and other parts of Kuala Lumpur. �

"My knowledge in chemistry also helped in the mixing of alloys for gold and silver,�� Ng says.

...Tomei has become a leading gold manufacturer producing the latest state-of-the-art jewellery.�

Ng has four children (two boys and two girls) who have been educated in fields that would help to develop the business further. They are in marketing, engineering, finance and business management.

------(excerpts from url)------

I have always had a fondness for rags-to-riches stories. This on is particularly nice because it centers around gold. Not investment advice, just pleasant Sunday reading.

R.

TownCrier

(04/20/2003; 02:03:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101599)

Iraq: it's all about the Euro

http://www.sundayobserver.lk/2003/04/20/fea02.html(The Straits Times, Singapore) -- Stopping the exodus of capital from America to Europe is the real reason why the United States started the war against Iraq despite worldwide objection, according to a Chinese think-tank chief with access to the leadership in Beijing.

In an analysis said to have been read by President Hu Jintao and other top leaders, Mr Wang Jian argues that the steady flow of money away from the US and into Europe over the past six months has raised the spectre of a financial meltdown in America.

With a financial system sustained largely by incoming funds invested in government bonds and other instruments, the US simply cannot afford to let the exodus continue. It has to thrash the euro, which has been appreciating against the US dollar, and make Europe a risky place in which to park excess money, he says.

Mr. Wang, who heads the government-linked Macroeconomics Society of China, asserts that the US has decided that a war in the Middle East, from which most major European economies except Britain import almost all their oil, would be the most effective way to rattle fund managers.

Iraq, with the second largest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia but few friends even in the Arab world, as good as offered itself as the target.

No doubt higher oil prices will hurt the American economy too, but the impact will be much less severe as the US depends on the Middle East for only 26 per cent of its needs.

...In any case, victory in Iraq will mean American control over the country's oil fields, however much the Bush administration may deny that it wants to do that. The US can then tighten the screws on Europe.

Mr Wang's paper has created a stir among the community of researchers and analysts in Beijing, many of whom advise the Chinese government on foreign policy and strategic issues.

...Mr Wang says that it has not escaped the Americans that the war in Kosovo spooked fund managers. Within 10 days of the euro's launch in 1999, it rose 19 per cent against the dollar. But once fighting in Kosovo started two months later, the exchange rate fell to as low as 0.8, a 40 per cent drop from peak to trough.

...'I hope my analysis is wrong because if it is not, then the consequences are horrendous,' he says at the end of his paper.

...'Watch Venezuela. Its oil exports were disrupted recently because of strikes and disturbances. Can one be sure there was no American hand behind these?'

-----(see url for this remarkable article)-----

The truth or not is irrelevant, because if this is the festering international perspective regardless about the dollar, the dollar will not be standing tall for much longer.

Belgian, I figure you have already cast a knowing glance at the forces behind this one.

R.

Black Blade

(04/20/2003; 02:10:23 MDT - Msg ID: 101600)

How To Rebuild Iraq

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,444872,00.html
The work to remake the country will be long, expensive and difficult. An assessment of how much it will cost � and who will pay

Snippit:

It's clear that current oil revenues will not even keep the interest payments current. Before Iraq can begin to rebuild its economy it will have to either get massive amounts of debt forgiveness or repudiate these debts. At present, the capital markets are pricing Iraqi debt to reflect an expected 90% reduction in official and commercial debt, while reparations are expected to be reduced to under $40 billion. Again, this may be an optimistic assumption, and certainly Iraq's creditors are talking a tough line. "We not only expect to get our money back," says German Finance Minister Hans Eichel. "We will get our money back." Germany, France and Russia appear set to drag their heels on debt forgiveness as a way to pressure the U.S. to give the United Nations more of a role in the reconstruction of Iraq.

However, these nations have received no payment on these debts for over ten years and would never have collected a penny if Saddam had remained in charge. In all likelihood they probably already assume that they will never recover more then a fraction of the current debt. Their real game is to ensure the UN as a key player in the reconstruction effort, allowing European countries to get on the gravy train for future reconstruction contracts, particularly for the development of large gas and oil projects. The U.S. Treasury Department still assumes a deal will be brokered.

One radical option is for Iraq to repudiate all of its international debt. This action would be based on making the case that Saddam government was an odious regime and that the debt it incurred should not encumber the people of Iraq. The legal case for this has its roots in America's repudiation of Cuba's debts after the Spanish American War. After World War I Alexander Sack, a French economist developed the legal theory that loans to despots were personal loans and not sovereign debts. Lenders to Iraq warn that adopting this policy could do irreparable harm to Iraq's ability to borrow in the future.

Before oil production rights could be sold there is a further legal hurdle to be overcome. Both France's TotalFinaElf and Russia's Lukoil negotiated multibillion- dollar contracts with Iraq to explore and produce oil as soon as sanctions were lifted. Lukoil has already threatened to impound tankers carrying Iraqi oil if their contracts are not honored. Clearly, it would not be in the best interest of the Iraqi people to restrict any firm from future auctions. So, both of these firms, despite American desires to punish them should be allowed to participate in future contract bidding. By extension the contracts already signed while Saddam was in power were not in the best interest of the Iraqi people either, since firms that abided by the sanctions were locked out of the bidding process. Many legal scholars agree there is a strong case for throwing out these contracts.

Black Blade: A real battle is brewing over the reconstruction issue. It is likely that the US will be saddled with most of the cost in an already crippled global economy. "Interesting Times"

Belgian

(04/20/2003; 02:56:27 MDT - Msg ID: 101601)

Good morning

At SenderBerl.com, one can find some thought provoking stuff...that might be a good remedy for a few sleepless nights.
Nice WE, nevertheless to all.

mas

(04/20/2003; 04:01:45 MDT - Msg ID: 101602)

R. Paul

Look at the statement about going to 12 Trillion!

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul89.html

mikal

(04/20/2003; 08:25:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101603)

@Belgium

Happy Easter to all readers.
Belgium, I read much of the material at your link and its very interesting and I welcome all such viewpoints, though I doubt the validity of as yet unsubstantiated claims of China's direct, EXCLUSIVE culpability in initiating SARS. It may be that various intelligence agencies have collaberated once again.
We need diverse viewpoints on vital health and geopolitical topics to survive and outwit the NWO and TPTB, who continue to bungle and fumble around, perhaps assisted by SARS.
As BlackBlade said yesterday, parasites and instigators have been around a long time and keep mutating even when supposedly exterminated. As you know, golden remedies DO protect your body, mind and spirit and help insure a degree of aloofness and perspective in the midst of any circumstance.
"Those who are careful take good care of themselves and others as well, careful in every situation. Those who are careless slight themselves and others too, careless in everything. Intelligent people make it a point to be neither too concerned nor too indifferent." -Huanchu Daoran

mikal

(04/20/2003; 09:01:24 MDT - Msg ID: 101604)

Some linkages between World Investors, SARS, U.S. Dollar and GOLD

http://www.jsmineset.comGeneral Editorial
April 19, 2003 -Excerpts:
""Dollar Bombing" pegged as strategy to force
return of Iraqi Oil Assets to Islamic Control
Sinclair:"The US Will Not Succumb but the US Dollar Will"
The weapons of mass destruction held by China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, Jordan, Turkey and Iran are GREEN. They are US dollars in the form of US short to medium term treasury instruments that the US, via its marketing arm the World Bank and the IMF, sold these nations to hold as reserve assets.
Already they are being fired slowly into the dollar market.....
The following excerpt from an Associated Press article of Saturday, April 19th provides some meaningful context to the scenario discussed above.
Associated Press: April 19th
Adnan Malik
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (April 19) - Foreign ministers from six countries that border Iraq condemned U.S. threats against Syria and urged coalition forces to quickly stabilize Iraq and withdraw their troops.
In a statement issued early Saturday, the ministers also agreed the United Nations should play a substantial role in rebuilding Iraq, and recommended U.N. sanctions stay in place until the Iraqis themselves form a new government.
Officials representing Iraq's neighbors - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, Jordan, Turkey and Iran - and Egypt and Bahrain gathered Friday for the emergency summit, their first meeting since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime.
But until a new Iraqi government is established, ''the occupying forces must restore law and security,'' Prince Saud said. The statement called on the coalition to ''maintain security and stability'' in Iraq, and protect the rights of the Iraqi people ''and their cultural heritage.''
Most Arab countries oppose a U.S. plan to lead an interim administration, with Iraqis initially in advisory roles. The ministers' statement stressed, ''the Iraqi people should administer and govern their country by themselves,'' including making decisions regarding the country's vast oil wealth.
April 18, 2003
Dear Friends
I called this to your attention when it first began. The psychology of a pandemic has been written about and it is serious. The pandemic is the "FEAR of SARS" more than SARS itself or so we pray.
This "SARS FEAR SYNDROME (SFS) may constitute the greatest challenge that the US Federal Reserve will ever face.
Assuming this pandemic of "FEAR of SARS" affects the general US business community as it has already affected the business community in China Town in San Francisco and New York, the Fed will be called upon to use all its anti-deflation tools to a degree that has no precedent.
This is dollar negative and gold positive for reasons we all wish did not exist.""

Belgian

(04/20/2003; 09:12:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101605)

@ Towncrier (#101599)- ALL

We often fail to "decode" news-events and attached messages, subtleties.
We must train ourselves in searching for all the Gold-Connections, within the sequences of news and messages (two different items).

Yesterday, dwarfs-land Belgium, expierenced a rather unusual but significant incident. The Knokke incident for the Belgian lurkers. A Bilderberger (Lippens) clashed with the Minister of foreign Affairs (L.Michel) about NWO fundamentals. Result : Confirmation of the new axis : Luxemboug > Brussels > Paris > Bonn > Moskou > Bejing > M.E. ! Disapproval of this axis by the lower echelon Bilderberger !
Decodation : The new axis exists. Euroland's christian democrats (opposition) do not approve the new axis's modus operandi. This is a possible reason why the euro's, Gold-leverage, is retarded.
But I liked the quasi-official confirmation of the new axis >>> THE EURO CARTEL !!! In support of the OIL CARTEL (OPEC) !
This is polarization, folks !

It's all about the euro...

Before FOA's altruistic education...we were NOT thinking, euro > dollar > oil > gold ! Neither were the media (US-non US). Now we have news and messages about the euro-dollar-oil ! BUT NOT YET ABOUT GOLD !!!! Howhowwwww...
Not too fast goldbuggieeeeeesssss.

Randy, at SenderBerl, you will find enough insights on the Chinese connection and its importance in the new axis. And hopladihoplada...China wants to install a liberal Goldmarket...and is a new axis member, euro-inspired and ME oil-involved and the only brake on the NWO sturm und drang !
What a terrible co-incidence ! BTW, are the Jipangu Goldfund, realy 100% "japanese" stockholders (small detail of course) ?

Has anyone ever considered that the major Gold-Hedgers (forward-sellers), AU-ABX (WGC)-Aussiemines, earned their certificate as US-(NWO)patriots, with their overstretched forward sales of 3,000 tonnes underground Gold. This of course with the waterproof guarantees of NWO supporting bullion banks (JPM_CHASE/GS).

At present, the media are allowed (or must) to associate the ME events with a relationship between dollar-euro-oil !
Programmed Euroland public debates have shifted to this aspect of the actualities ! We have passed the phase of the atrocities-reporting and are heading to discuss real business, now. But still NO GOLD in sight ! Comes last in the whole sequence. Because "GOLD" is kept for the grand finale !

In your sundayobserver-article, they mention Venezuela Oil.
The same turmoil is happening in Nigeria, a divided country 50% christian-50% muslim. Another pocket where the clash of (religious) civilizations is oil-connected !

The new Luxembourg to Bejing axis is AN EURO - GOLD CARTEL !
Imagine the possibility that SARS is the subtle chinese answer to the NWO-storm !? A halt to the further invasion of Syria/Iran/Saudi Arabia !?
Biological weaponary to counterbalance the dollar invasion and maneuver provider for the euro and Gold !

The message for all present and future Goldphiles is rather simple : The absolute silence about Gold within the strategic maneuvers of dollar and euro and oil, are (subtle) evidence of Gold's utmost importance into the equation(s). Frustratingly difficult to understand and accept. Follow the coming news + messages and decode (intrepret) them with dollar/euro/oil/gold in the back of your head. The media are NOT going to offer you the Gold-Masterpiece on a plate.

Gold is next in the liberation hullabaloooo. The dollar is slowly but surely losing its old and tired supporters.
New euro...New Euroland...New trade flows...NEW GOLD !

Thank you Sir Strauss.

steady

(04/20/2003; 09:16:21 MDT - Msg ID: 101606)

the golden egg?

did u find the goldne egg this a.m. ? did u rember to put 1/8 th ounce 1/4 ounce and 1/2 ounce gold coins in your easter eggs u set out today? did u make the grand prize a half ounce? rember to teach your offspring the value of gold as aerly as possibl ao it makes a lasting impression in there physci. Easter presents a good opportunity. remember the golden egg for next year.

Belgian

(04/20/2003; 09:47:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101607)

@ Mikal

Yes Sir, I have my "salt" always with me. I've been adding too much salt lately. Do you remember the tension/conflict building between the US and China, pr� 9/11 !? Whatever SARS may be...tensions will mount, one way or the other. The Hong Kong authorities are SERIOUSLY panicking.
Are you aware about the progress that has been made on genetical engineering ? We have he first human fatality from birth-pest. So far, scientists state that this was only possible by the melting of the genetical material of 2 different virusses (accidentally or engineered-??? ). Don't take these rumors too lightly either.

What we are interested in...is China *maneuvering* to contain dollar-expansion in favor of the euro (and gold) or not (with or without SARS)? Let's detect and decode next week's news and messages on the N.Korea negociations and their impact on the US-ME evolvement. Present geo-politics have dollar/euro/oil on their agenda, as never before. SARS "might-!!!" immobilize a significant part of far East export-production potential in the advantage (enforcement) of China !?

Don't forget that anthrax/sarin/halothane-mixture have been used in the US/Japan/Moscow-theatre. Are genetically engineered weapons that far away ? Genetically modified seeds (soya) are already used as an economic weapon.
SenderBerl is presenting much more insights than SARS alone.
Remember the ebola-affair in Congo ? I become somewhat suspicious about the difference, small frontier, between accident and atrocity ! I'm getting old, I guess.

mikal

(04/20/2003; 10:19:17 MDT - Msg ID: 101608)

@Belgium

Yes, I DO remember Ebola, and anthrax, and AIDS and tainted vaccines and experiments on prisoners and enlistees, etc.
Good points about the Euro. We watch and wait. This new week commencing tomorrow is sure to bring further hints as you say from N. Korea, and from anywhere.

Old Yeller

(04/20/2003; 12:48:54 MDT - Msg ID: 101609)

Oil for euros

http://www.opec.org/NewsInfo/Speeches/sp2002/spAraqueSpainApr14.htm
An OPEC perspective on the issue.

Before the invasion of Iraq,mind you.

Belgian

(04/20/2003; 14:50:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101610)

@ Old Yeller

Just finished listening to a BBC debate about the Atlantic division, with the French,UK,Slovenia,PNAC-representative.
None of the respective positions has changed. Offer for multiralisme by Euroland and US/UK chosing for multiralisme � la carte. Incompatability is there to stay. No rapprochements, yet.
Therefor, both blocks (�/$) will continue their way... up until something decisive happens. And this could be a sudden oil for euro decision...or the UK changing course (partner)...or another provocation by a powerfull challenger to the US...economic disaster...dollar-attack...Bush not re-elected...unknown.

Up until now, I haven't given up on the idea / future of euro for oil or petrodollars exchanged for euro.
The liberators haven't claimed the Iraqi oil yet. Today, the UN is still running Iraq's oil-business. And we don't know yet how a possible (impossible) Iraqi government is going to react on the supervision of an IMF/World Bank that is going to regulate the huge debt problem that has almost a lifetime of 20 years. IMVHO, it was the past debt-debacle that impoverished Iraq from a wealthy nation 20 years ago, back into a medieval society with dictatorship.

In other words...the PNAC-doctrine has closed the ME-policy of the past 3 decades for a new "experiment". Up until now, the globe agreed with the US-policy on the ME oil affairs.
This is not the case anymore and will become more clear as time goes by and we are going to see more evidence of the PNAC agenda.

Most probably, it will be the ME oilstates who will decide what change, if any, they want. Who will partner up with who, overthere ?

What if a big part of the region turns into a Israeli/Palestina, terror/contraterror, bloodbath ?
Father Bush, today, suggested the US should keep 4 military basis in Iraq, permanently !
The Iraqi shi'a majority wants to turn Iraq into a Mullah state (Iranian model). They are liberated now...?

The ME roadmap...what roadmap ?

Are you suggesting that we should write off the euro for oil ? What's your guess ?

Clink!

(04/20/2003; 15:30:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101611)

@ steady re: Ron Paul

It must be nice to have the option of voting for someone that you want, rather than for the one you dislike the least !

Goldilox

(04/20/2003; 16:08:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101612)

Restarting the pumps

Friday's WSJ had an article in the internatioonal section about the issue of ramping up production in Iraq's oil fields. Supposedly, the storage tanks are all full and there is not yet a directive about where or how to ship it. The pipeline to the south is not yet fully secure, and there is no UN directive on who commands the sales.

"OIL-Export Delay Risks Damage to Northern Fields"
Chip Cummins, WSJ Friday, 4/18/03 p A3

CoBra(too)

(04/20/2003; 16:34:03 MDT - Msg ID: 101613)

PNAC?

@ Belgium - May have missed some posts here lately - is PNAC equivalent to the Project of a New American Century?

If that's what you're referring to it may be only another name for NWO ... both send ice-cold ripples down my spine - as I feel that I've heard this kind of propaganda sometime, somewhere before.

Fact is - the world is still waiting for the reality and reason for the War against Iraq. OK, from not turning up WMD's, to liberate the Iraqis from an atrocious Saddam Regime to Iraqi Freedom - the real reasons have been discussed here and elesewhere.

Meanwhile, as the drama unfolds even the US Military is questioning the validity of the stated reasons. Reasons, which have been in flux since the statement before the UN Security Council by Colin Powell, found out to be a gaff.

In a serious appraisal of recent developments one has to come to a conclusion - that taken at face value - it seems like the last bastion of defense of the seignorage, supremacy or hegemony of an - in all reality - worthless paper fiat Dollar - as the globe's only reserve currency.

Looks like its days are numbered - and even if the TSY, FED and ESF will mobilize all its (paper) force, the scheme (scam) has been uncovered... and will end as all paper scams have ... So, we don't know when.

We only know prudence dictates insurance. The only insurance against loss of wealth is and always was the physical ownership of GOLD.

cb2

PS: From my mailbag - Published on Friday, April 18, 2003 by the Seattle Post-Intelligencer
War in Iraq a Reason for Shame
by Anthony B. Robinson

Good Friday is the right day to assess the current war. Despite what some may be saying, this is not an Easter moment. It is not a moment of victory or triumph, and certainly not a time for "alleluias." It is a moment for sorrow, anguish and reflection.

Anguish and guilt are what at least some of the soldiers in the Army's 3rd Infantry Division, which has borne the brunt of the fighting in Iraq, are now experiencing. They have found themselves fighting a grossly outmatched opponent. The Christian Science Monitor quoted one 3rd Infantry Division soldier saying, "For lack of a better word, I feel almost guilty about the massacre. We wasted a lot of people. It makes you wonder how many were innocent. It takes away some of the pride. We won, but at what cost?"

The Monitor reported that as waves of Iraqis armed only with rifles came against U.S. armored divisions in Najaf, the U.S. commander called in an air strike on the factory sheltering the Iraqis rather than have his troops continue the slaughter. Lt. Col. Woody Radcliff at the 3rd Infantry Division Operations Center said, "There were waves and waves of people coming at them, with AK-47s, and they were killing everyone. The commander (in the field) called and said, 'This is not right. This is insane. Let's hit the factory with close air support and take them out all at once.'

"They have no command and control, no organization. They're just dying," said Brig. Gen. Louis Weber, as assistant commander with the 3rd Infantry. Last week the Division's 2nd Brigade Combat Team killed at least 1,000 Iraqis by direct fire on a single raid into Baghdad, reported Weber.

Should the disproportionality of what that solider termed "a massacre" surprise anyone? I think not. After all, Iraq is a nation whose total Gross National Product equals 15 percent of the GDP of the state of Washington. Half the population of Iraq is under the age of 15. And the annual defense budget was $1.4 billion, as compared with $400 billion for the United States. It has been a little like a pit bull taking on a particularly scrappy kitten. Only the morally atrophied can cheer such a victory, or portray it as Vice President Cheney has as "one of the greatest military campaigns in history."

But inasmuch as we were told that Iraq represented a threat to the national security of the United States, the reality of this war ought to lead us to ask again why we have done this. Such a catalogue of reasons and rationales have been trotted out by the administration that one almost needs a computer program to keep up. Iraq poses a threat to our national security, we were repeatedly told in a blatant and relentless playing on our fears. How is it that the strongest and wealthiest nation on Earth feels so easily threatened?

Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction, we were told. None were used against us. Funny, we haven't found any. Not funny that the documentary "evidence" cited by the president in his State of the Union address to support this claim has turned out to be a forgery, and a very shoddy one at that. Now the president is saying that Syria may have chemical weapons. Is the groundwork being laid for the next invasion?

"Iraq has links to al-Qaida." None were ever shown or substantiated. But that didn't keep the administration from making constant rhetorical connections between Iraq and 9/11. It was a sales job that makes Madison Avenue look like amateurs. And it succeeded. By the time the bombs began to fall a majority of Americans believed that the hijackers of the planes on 9/11 were actually Iraqis, even though not a single one of them was.

Discovering that none of the other stated reasons could hold water, the administration resorted to the "liberation" of Iraq, and "bringing freedom and democracy" to the people there. Only time will tell whether it is democracy and prosperity to which we are committed or a more pliant client state.

On Good Friday, the prayers are repetitive. "God have mercy, Lord have mercy, God, have mercy upon us." These are the right prayers for this time when there is reason for reflection and anguish, not elation or self-congratulation.

Anthony B. Robinson is senior minister at Plymouth Congregational Church: United Church of Christ in Seattle. E-mail: trobinson@plymouthchurchseattle.org

Cavan Man

(04/20/2003; 16:42:03 MDT - Msg ID: 101614)

@CB (too)

Thanks for that last message, friend. Is it any wonder that Bechtel will be re-building Iraq; that would be the Bechtel with George Schultz on the Board? Wake up America.

Gold will set youse free (but not for gold alone)...CM

Cavan Man

(04/20/2003; 16:51:27 MDT - Msg ID: 101615)

Count me out of the "party"

Bush: 'Good Chance' North Korea Can Be Convinced to Give Up Nuke Program
VOA News
20 Apr 2003, 17:00 UTC

President Bush says there is a "good chance" North Korea can be persuaded to give up its attempts to develop nuclear weapons.

CM comment: "Fat chance"

silvercollector

(04/20/2003; 17:14:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101616)

Russian help?

The front page on the local rag had a story that Russia supplied intelligence prior to and during the current war campaign. I cannot find it on their site.

Anyone hear anything about this?

TIA

silvercollector

(04/20/2003; 17:15:17 MDT - Msg ID: 101617)

Sorry...

...Russian supplied intelligence to Iraq.....

Old Yeller

(04/20/2003; 17:52:16 MDT - Msg ID: 101618)

Belgian,oil for euros

I think FOA is right about this issue and Bush is hastening
the process.

That said,the PNAC/AEI's real agenda,though unspoken,even
by the authors,is strategic control not only over oil(and
water)in the ME,but also it's rate and direction of flow,
the unit of account for oil purchases as well as the many
other levers available for use to an rooted power in such a position.The secondary unspoken agenda is the fact that
the C/A deficit is now mounting rapidly,the dollar really
has few fundamentals to justify it's value,the Asian dollar dams are bursting and the world is realizing that the mighty
American consumer market is reaching the end of it's own unique timeline.

The world's oil supply will soon peak and
then gradually dwindle in supply,meanwhile,of course,the
POO will continually rise in terms of real money,whatever
that may be at that time.Since we all know that America's
oil thirst is relentless,massive and growing,even as domestic production shrinks,the US share of world oil
use will grow ever larger.

Combine spiraling external debt,a economy increasingly
based on storytelling,massive and growing self-imposed
world policing costs(advocated in full by the PNAC/AEI
seers)and the inability to generate real wealth to pay for
it's oil requirements and it becomes time to play the trump
card;the US has a strategic right to the world's oil.

As far as I'm concerned,the US PTB are trying to
implement a new rule of economics,the oil rule;those
who have the oil,make the rules.If this is so,then oil
will always be priced in USDs.

They can be stopped,obviously,the mighty military machine
would grind to a quick halt without the world reserve
currency credit card.There are many vested interests in
maintaining US dollar hegemony,all over the world.The
question becomes,when does the risk of being supporting
the Fed/Treasury/IMF/Wall St. monetary structure outweigh
the benefits?

Or,perhaps,the MIC will demonstrate convincingly that we
are really just dealing with an old fashioned protection racket.

In that case,oil will always be priced in USDs.

It's quite a high stakes game they're playing,morally,I don't think they have a leg to stand on and sincerely hope that someone or something pushes the whole plate-spinning mess over.

Preferably something like gold or a commodity based money.

Thanks again for all your always informative and thought
provoking posts.

Dollar Bill

(04/20/2003; 18:18:24 MDT - Msg ID: 101619)

seeing evil in paper

I think it would be a good idea to just accept that
the central bankers of the world are not at all
interested in causeing chaos.

The euro is no where near ready for reserve currency
status and responsibilities.

The chinese must have some idea of what they hope for the
future of thier currency, and they must know that
it is a road of a number of years they have to walk
to have a shot at attaining reserve currency status.
It would be a tough sell to convince the chinese to upend thier biggest customer way before they could stand on thier own without that customer (usa). In chiracs dreams maybe, but the chinese have to decide based on THIER advantage.
They may store some gold, but they have no sane reason to
screw up the dollar.

The russians? Not a economic player except in fantasy.

I read recently that the US could, if push comes to shove,
just turn from the WTO model and bond with a few countries
and it would be europe that would suffer most from that.

When the central bankers decided to go the WTO route, they knew that it would get ugly and uneven. But, no matter what system we have, it has flaws.

I'd like to thank some of the gata bishops for fostering the kind of hatred of fiat we get preached here on sunday.

There is no country that is interested in going to a gold system. Fiat is here to stay. All politicians like fiat.
What possibly could we do to change that?
Debt is the future. Whomever has the strongest currency,
whomever, will worship at the alter of debt. Just give them
a couple years. We might as well not hate it.

mikal

(04/20/2003; 19:16:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101620)

@Dollar Bill

If you have read this forum for any length of time with but modicum of attention and effort, you would have concluded that central bankers DO like chaos. Chaos is another word for disequilibrium, injustice, war, crime, currency debasement, fraud, institutional oppression and much more.
Your vested interest in the dollar bill in its current form and other fiat is obvious time and time again from your abstract and irrational defenses. What debt and fiat did and does is way past your reason. You don't have to get worked up when your dollar fiat fantasies are threatened by a glimpse of what's approaching unless you've sold yourself out.

Gandalf the White

(04/20/2003; 19:19:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101621)

Ok SPOT -- Time to start JUMPING !!!

JUMP SPOT, JUMP !!
How about $330. tonight ?
<;-)

Topaz

(04/20/2003; 19:24:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101622)

$Bill.

Ah! Bill...love seeing your Handle once in a while. The problem as I see it currently is the LACK of indebtedness people, Corp's and Countries are willing/able to take on as to perpetuate the System... consequently it (the System) is in a death-spiral - (the "timeline" FoA spoke of).
I do believe the Euro is "intended" to pick up the slack as the Dollar dies but - as you state - she 'aint quite there yet.
Don't discount a "pre-emptive" monetary rescue package from the Dollar Bloc which "may" include VERY high Gold valuations...the time, it would seem, is nigh!

Black Blade

(04/20/2003; 20:27:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101623)

A Nice Start

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/charts/cdcharttcl?symm=GLD.FX1&hist=1&dbrushwidth=1&charttype=1&gd1=na&gd2=na&benchmark=∈fos=3∈dtype1=0∈dtype2=0&volumen=2
Gold is off to a good start tonight. Maybe we will see a nice boost as the London ,arket will not be open to throw ice water on the party.

- Black Blade

mikal

(04/20/2003; 21:16:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101624)

World stock markets tumble together, with separate playbooks

http://www.msnbc.com/news/902706.asp?0si=- ��Rethinking Buy-and-Hold � Sure, stocks have performed well over the long term. But when everyone seizes on the same investing strategy, it quits working as well �
NEWSWEEK April 28 issue �Excerpts: �
"No god-given tablet says that investing should be made easy. In the years running up to the 2000 market peak, any dummy could make money in stocks, and did. But history is pocked with long periods when it's tough to scratch out a capital gain. Like now. As a result, investors are losing faith in the one thing they thought they'd learned: riches await, if you buy and hold stocks.
But trusting the long term makes no sense when we don't know anything about the future, argues economist Peter Bernstein, author of "Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk," a splendid book about how we measure investment risk. U.S. stocks have decisively outperformed bonds for a century or two. But when everyone seizes on the same strategy, it doesn't work as well.....
All this suggests a rough time for the church of buy-and-hold....."
Reporters: Temma Ehrenfeld, Dori Perrucci

Belgian

(04/21/2003; 00:49:12 MDT - Msg ID: 101625)

@ COBRA II

PNAC/NWO/AEI/NSS/NEOCONs...etc, becoming daily terminology instead of far away, obscure theories. It took me some time before I wanted to use these terms, notions, "doctrines" ! But in yesterday's debate, a PNAC representative (officially presented as such) was in the panel (forgot his name). Project for a new American century !
Yes COBRA, also very frightening to US too, overhere.

Your goodharted/innocent ignorance about these matters, surprised me a bit.

We get the impression that "God" must definitely be an American. The two other occasions that NWO was publicly expressed was by Bush senior ('91) and 55 years ago, somewhere in old Europe.

The above (religious/ideological fundamentalism) made me understand, "how" and "why" and by "who", Gold has been "contained" in a vanadium fist. A... "project" (!!!) for the next American..."century" (!!!). Sounds very impressing to me. And "is" impressing me (us) NOW !

But on the other hand...I'm confident (and see) that the hardening dollar-doctrine is going to meet, growing resistance ! The euro-dollar block strugglings have other dimensions than monetary, alone.

President Bush's over-confidence/complacent (Texas-Easter) on N.Korea and China talks, 25/26 april, seem a bit pr�mature to me. These geopolitical matters are all related to the dollar-doctrine, now in hyper mode. hat's why these events are important to me and are constantly evaluated by the dollar/euro exchange rate as an objective (?) measuring rod on the balances of powers.

We are witnissing a replay of the Von Rundstatt offensive.
The US-dollar-ideology on the march ! Same old imperial ambitions, evolving under our eyes. Tell me, I have it completely wrong and that I'm deliring.

Goldbug 1

(04/21/2003; 01:42:42 MDT - Msg ID: 101626)

Diabetic Cats and Gold

I have been a silent watcher on this Forum for many years and often wonder what connection some of the postings have with gold.
Can I approach from left field and tell you that my husbands cat Fur Face is predicting gold at over $400/oz before the end of 2003.
Do not laugh at this because this cat has the uncanny ability to pick horse race winners. Unlike many cats he is a diabetic and has three injections of insulin a day. The latter probably nothing to do with his predictions.
We should all be buying gold coins at the present low price, as well as picking up some gold shares. This may be the last opportunity to buy at a realtively low price.

Waverider

(04/21/2003; 01:55:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101627)

Yen Falls Against Euro; Fukui Says Lenders in `Severe State'

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aefch._kmGuU&refer=top_world_newsSnip:
"The yen fell against the euro for a second day after Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said the financial system was in a ``severe state'' because of bad loans and plunging stock prices."

Waverider: I guess the Nikkei was supported by the PTT on Monday. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng move inversely to the number of new SARS patients. Both the Chinese Health Minister and Beijing's mayor have been fired over the cover-up.

Black Blade

(04/21/2003; 03:24:54 MDT - Msg ID: 101628)

The "Barbarous Relic Files" - Gold dust worth nearly $350,000 disappears at Miami airport

http://www.naplesnews.com/03/04/florida/d922428a.htm
Snippit:

MIAMI � A bucket lost at Miami International Airport may have set off a few metal detectors � it held 73 pounds of unrefined gold dust worth nearly $350,000. Miami-Dade police are looking for the powder, which was shipped to Miami from Honduras and arrived March 5. A police report states that American Cargo employee Jose Martelo received six buckets of gold at a terminal gate, then made several rounds to different gates to pick up other items. Martelo said he was at in the next concourse when he realized one bucket was missing. Police were called, but the bucket was not recovered. "I don't think the company wants me to discuss anything," he said. At Thursday's gold prices, the powder was worth about $348,000.

Black Blade: I think that this may have been posted here before. A lot of trouble over a mere "barbarous relic". Hmmm�

I gotta move a bucke�..err, I mean I got some stuff to move.

Black Blade

(04/21/2003; 03:49:21 MDT - Msg ID: 101629)

Gold dinar and the currency crisis

http://www.dawn.com/2003/04/21/ebr5.htm
Snippit:

When the global economy is passing through turbulent times, stock markets are volatile and countries trying hard to keep up with arduous times of war , Malaysia has coined a plan what is perhaps the first of its kind, -the golden dinar proposal for bilateral and multilateral trade among Islamic countries. Malaysia's concern since the attack on the nation's currency has been the vulnerability and volatility of money- a bane suffered by this country and others in the region in 1997-98 that it now wants to avoid or minimize. Having one of the most 'open' economies, Malaysia is often at the mercy of swings in its currency. Though pegging the Malaysian ringgit to the US dollar in 1999 has brought some semblance of stability, the currency is nonetheless still subject to constant volatility. Hence the gold-diner idea.

Although gold might not solve the problem, it is less unstable than the US dollar and has an intrinsic value that paper money does not have. It is believed that with gold, speculation and manipulation could be avoided and thus the international trade would be safe from being undermined. The gold diner was used by the Muslim world as far back as the second caliphate (AD 632), until the fall of the Ottoman empire in 1924. According to the Islamic law, one diner is equivalent to 4.22 grams (0.135 ounce) of pure gold and the value is based on demand for gold.

The Malaysian plan, however, is different in that it uses gold as money and not as a gold-backed instrument, a feature that is important for the gold Dinar proposal to be successful as it would avoid the pitfalls that caused the failure of the Bretton Woods system. The plan seeks to use the diner not for day-to-day settlement of trades but for bilateral payment arrangements, later to be extended to multilateral payment arrangements, and is solely confined to the settlement of trades. The gold diner, whose denomination has yet to be determined, will not exist in physical form but will be defined in terms of gold. Observers believe that Malaysia is likely to adopt a one-ounce diner. Therefore, if the price of one ounce of gold is $365 as it is now, the value of one gold diner will be $365 or equivalent in other currencies based on the prevailing exchange rate.

The problems holding back its effectiveness are the issue of volatility of gold due to its narrow market and the fact that not many of Malaysia's major trading partners produce gold. For these reasons the proposal for a currency backed by a broader-based basket of commodities and services that includes the gold diner and the silver dirham as two of its components. The other components could include crude oil, palm oil or rubber, products of which Malaysia and its major trading partners are significant producers or users. A currency backed by a broader basket that is also interest-free (and therefore compatible with Shariah law, a Malaysian and Islamic concern) would be more stable than if it would rely only on one of its components.

As to the repercussions of the plan, reactions have been mixed as to the impact on gold resources and the gold market. Some believe gold resources would be depleted and prices of gold would be pushed up. Others, believe the impact on gold prices would be positive but the actual volume of physical gold stored or traded would be minimal.

Black Blade: An interesting article on the proposed Gold dinar and Silver Dirham (and commodities basket) for international settlement at the expense of the US dollar.

Pan

(04/21/2003; 06:10:23 MDT - Msg ID: 101630)

I cannot remember having read in the mainstream press of it

http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=22389Gold sales helps tide over ICICI Bank bust scare

snippit:

Trust gold to tide over times of crisis � global, economical or personal. So goes the common perception of the yellow metal since ages.

It was gold that partially helped ICICI Bank, the country's second largest bank, to tide over the temporary crisis of confidence it faced during April 11 to 16.

The overall sale of gold by ICICI Bank's bullion desk during these days was said to be up by around 40-50 per cent, which in value terms could be anywhere between Rs 60 crore and Rs 70 crore.

and

Rumours make Gujarat depositors rush to ATMs

snippit:

The rumour that the ICICI bank has gone bust spread like wildfire, so much so, that even other banks like HSBC, UTI and IDBI witnessed long queues outside their ATMs. It took scroll on major news channels, mobiles and word of mouth for the rumour to spread rapidly.

http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=21867

JemeJordan

(04/21/2003; 07:29:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101631)

Foreign buying of gold coins

Hi All

Question: whats the story on buying gold coins from a dealer in a foreign country? Which country has the best price? How do the currency exchange rates come into play? How do you do you transport the goods back to the US?

Thanks

Jim

Eleanor of Aquitaine

(04/21/2003; 08:03:23 MDT - Msg ID: 101632)

cycles...

Could we be in the first day of the next 2 month gold uptick? Thoughts?

Gandalf the White

(04/21/2003; 09:12:54 MDT - Msg ID: 101633)

wELCOME Lady Goldbug 1

Goldbug 1 (4/21/03; 01:42:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 101626)
Diabetic Cats and Gold
===
WELCOME Lady Goldbg 1 and your fortune telling cat too !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(04/21/2003; 09:38:21 MDT - Msg ID: 101634)

ANSWERS for Sir JemeJordan !!!

JemeJordan (4/21/03; 07:29:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 101631)
Foreign buying of gold coins.
--
Question: whats the story on buying gold coins from a dealer in a foreign country? Which country has the best price? How do the currency exchange rates come into play? How do you do you transport the goods back to the US?
===
HERE are my personal experiences and ANSWERS to your good questions ! First about buying gold coins from foreign dealers and other "private" sources --- Having accepted the task of returning all the USA gold coinage from foreign countries vaults has over the years been a headache ! YES, I have obtained some great coins for fair values, BUT, you will understand that foreign dealers do not know USA coins as well as we in the USA ! MANY dealers are also not using the same grading standards as we use here in the USA !! BUT, the most important item is that there are MANY fake and counterfeit coins that are THOUGHT to be real by their owners in foreign countries !!
SECONDLY -- The country with the worst paper exchange rate to the US $ has the most favorable prices ! The EURO countries, WHEN the US $ was at a 15% premium to the Euro, had FAB prices ! BUT the best thing about European countries is that many dealers and owners do not really understand MINT MARKS of USA coins. As some mint marked USA coins have a great premium over other mint marks, GREAT POTENTIAL profits are possible by such purchases, IF they are authentic coins.
-- Thirdly -- Transportation to the USA from the foreign country MAY be a problem ! SOME countries have expensive methods and it may take a VERY LONG time for the arrival !
and LASTLY ---
MAY I suggest that you solve ALL the potential problems of obtaining foreign coins (BOTH USA and of other countries) by just speaking with anyone from USAGOLD !! That is where they get the coins that they sell !!! BECAUSE, you can be sure that the coins are AUTHENTIC and that you will be paying the BEST PRICE that is possible to obtain in the USA.
--
WHY do I say this ? BECAUSE I have proven this many times over to myself ! Just call SIR MK and find out for yourself.
<;-)

JemeJordan

(04/21/2003; 09:44:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101635)

Thanks Gandalf the White

Sounds like the risk isnt really worth the reward ! So where do most US coin dealers buy Gold coins in Bulk ?

Gandalf the White

(04/21/2003; 09:45:12 MDT - Msg ID: 101636)

Lady Eleanor of Aquitaine !!

Eleanor of Aquitaine (4/21/03; 08:03:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101632)
cycles...
===
YES, my CRYSTAL BALL also sees an upward JUMP by SPOT in the forthcoming short period -- BUT it may be longer than two months before the END of the TRAIL is reached. THIS "To the MOON, Alice" cycle has only started !
<;-)

admin

(04/21/2003; 09:48:54 MDT - Msg ID: 101637)

MK's Commentary & Review Updated

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html

John Walker, Director for Gold Fields Mineral Services, tells us why Europe's top central banks -- including Germany -- may be out of the market as gold sellers.

Also, new "Short & Sweet"

Gandalf the White

(04/21/2003; 09:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 101638)

Sir JemeJordan

JemeJordan (4/21/03; 09:44:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 101635)
Thanks Gandalf the White
So where do most US coin dealers buy Gold coins in Bulk ?
===
The simple answer is "anywhere they can" ! THAT is why there are so few GOOD Dealers like USAGOLD !
They have "contacts" and with establishments like CB's, and large horders-- er, I meant "holders". MANY USA gold coins left for Europe and South America before the "call" in the 1930's. MANY silver USA trade coins went to the Orient long ago, and have GREAT stories to tell.
(oops -- I forgot you may not be able to speak to your coins.)
<;-)

Zhisheng

(04/21/2003; 09:57:18 MDT - Msg ID: 101639)

Inspiration.

@GandalfWas it the cat oracle that woke your dog Spot from his months' long stupor this morning?

Whatever it was, keep it coming!

Gandalf the White

(04/21/2003; 10:16:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101640)

Sir Dr. Zhisheng

Zhisheng (4/21/03; 09:57:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 101639)
Inspiration.
---
<;-) Did you see my late last night post ?
Having returned from a long sunny vacation to the lovely rain of the PNW, I was happy to find SPOT had been lounging at Lady Waverider's Castle. YES, it was Lady Goldbug 1's cat that really got SPOT to start moving !
---
Gandalf the White (4/20/03; 19:19:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 101621)
Ok SPOT -- Time to start JUMPING !!!
JUMP SPOT, JUMP !!
How about $330. tonight ?
<;-)

Zhisheng

(04/21/2003; 11:29:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101641)

Up into the Close!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Gandalf der Weisse (or better yet, Gandalf der Weise):

Sorry I missed your last night's late post. Must give credit whither credit is due! Thanks!

J-Bullion

(04/21/2003; 11:49:29 MDT - Msg ID: 101642)

USD Index

Can someone tell me a quick place to see the US dollar index?

Gandalf the White

(04/21/2003; 12:32:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101643)

Question ?

Does everyone wish to have ANOTHER POG contest ?
How about a short timetable one ?
say Close of COMEX June Gold Monday the 28th with Prognostications in by Sunday High Noon Denver time ?
4/21/03 Jun (GC3M) HIGH = $334.5 low = $327.6 Settle = $333.9 Change +$6.3 OI 4/25/03 = 109944
Let me know your thoughts.
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(04/21/2003; 12:35:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101644)

Sir J-Bullion's request !

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=NYBOT_DXY0&t=f&w=1&a=1&v=sJ-Bullion (04/21/03; 11:49:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 101642)
USD Index
===
<;-)

Black Blade

(04/21/2003; 12:51:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101645)

Gandy - POG Contest

Oh wizardous one, the Blade is always ready to wildly slash away at a POG guessing contest.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(04/21/2003; 13:07:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101646)

The staying power of an odd recession

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1048313883638&p=1012571727126
Snippit:

The first President George Bush won the first Gulf War. A year later he lost the presidency because the economy was in the tank. Will the second George Bush suffer the same fate? There is one big difference that should work in his favour. The first Bush's recession started after the first Gulf War, while the second Bush's recession started before the second Gulf War. But the nature of this recession may remove the advantage.

With recessions, timing usually makes all the difference. Recessions typically last about a year and a half. That is why presidents like to have them early in their first term. They get it over with, so by the time re-election day rolls around economic indicators are pointing upwards. If the recession that began in 2001 followed the typical pattern, it would be over by now, and President George W. Bush would be in good shape for re-election in 19 months' time.

What makes the White House nervous is that the current recession is far from being over. Indeed, the US economy continues to lose jobs at a remarkable rate. The last two monthly job reports, for February and March, show a combined loss of almost half a million jobs. So far, this recession has spawned the longest continuous decline in jobs in half a century.

Black Blade: This time the recession will last through a much longer time frame. That is why Dubya should have held off on the invasion until later in his first term. Now he will have to address the long term recession exacerbated by a secular bear market that will last several more years. Granted, he had absolutely nothing to do with the current economic recession, but it has carried over into his presidency and there is absolutely nothing he can do about it. The recession began earlier during the Clinton presidency and resulted from absurd expectations of a "new economy" and extensive excesses built into the market that are still being squeezed out now. No matter who wins the next presidential and congressional election, the economic mess will remain and nothing can be done until the excesses are squeezed out of the economy and the US dollar weakens to its true value relative to other major world currencies. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade

(04/21/2003; 13:15:54 MDT - Msg ID: 101647)

US pension plans fall into deficit

http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/030421/1048313840860_1.html
Snippit:

The 100 biggest US corporate pension plans have fallen into a deficit of $157bn from a surplus of $183bn in 2000, says Milliman USA, a benefits consulting firm. Due to the sharp fall in the stock market and falling interest rates, many pension plans - including those of General Motors, IBM and Ford - lost money on investments at the same time as liabilities were increasing. The combination of events was "the perfect storm" for pension plans, according to John Ehrhardt, one of the authors of the report.

Black Blade: Unless lobbying efforts and perhaps legal "bribery" pays off, these pension funds must be reloaded from corporate profits (if any). So far this will play havoc with "real" corporate profits. Until then watch them focus on "pro forma" profits.

Black Blade

(04/21/2003; 13:22:40 MDT - Msg ID: 101648)

U.S. Treasuries Fall; Budget Deficit May Prompt Record Quarterly Note Sale

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html
Snippit:

New York, April 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. government notes fell as analysts speculated the Treasury Department will sell a record amount of debt at its quarterly auctions next month as the government funds a budget deficit inflated by the Iraq war. The Treasury today said it plans to sell a record-tying $27 billion in two-year notes at its monthly auction Wednesday. At the quarterly sales in two weeks, the government may offer $64 billion in three-, five- and 10-year notes, about 44 percent more than the all-time high set in 1996, according to Barclays Capital Inc., one of 22 bond firms that trade with the Federal Reserve. Investors had ``put Treasury supply on the backburner because of the war with Iraq and flow of economic data,'' said Gary Pollack, who helps manage $10 billion at Deutsche Bank AG's private banking unit. ``Now, it's time to face the piper, and the piper is Treasury supply -- creating some pressure on prices.''

Black Blade: Pay the Piper indeed! The US occupation of Iraq will cost quite a bit more as troops are expected to remain at 4 to 5 permanent US bases planned in Iraq. The minimum large scale occupation is expected to last for 5 to 10 years followed by a reduced US presence. As I pointed out before, the costs will be huge and largely funded by the US taxpayer.

21mabry

(04/21/2003; 13:26:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101649)

(No Subject)

Just got in checked the markets, nice pop in gold price.Hope its on its up trend.

Chris Powell

(04/21/2003; 13:36:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101650)

Central banks are running out of gold -- it's in black and white

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1497Huge dishoarding of central bank gold is documented
by GATA consultant James Turk -- and the flow dried
up dramatically last year.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Black Blade

(04/21/2003; 13:48:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101651)

Pessimism remains the operative word

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/110/business/Pessimism_remains_the_operative_word+.shtml
Snippit:

NEW YORK - Wall Street pundits keep calling this a stock-picker's market, suggesting the only way to make money right now is by buying individual stocks. Try convincing average investors of that. This was the exact strategy that small investors used during the boom years that ended up backfiring in the market meltdown. Now, three years into the bear market and after all the nerve-rattling corporate scandals, the little guys are wary of buying single stocks. They would rather stuff their money into savings. Still, it's not surprising that this is the push coming from Wall Street. The brokerage business is built on trading commissions, so they have to come up with ways to encourage investors to buy.

Individuals are still suffering from all the bad mistakes they made during the stock-market boom and subsequent bust. They bought high and sold low, failing to time the market right. Back then they also over invested in individual stocks, forgetting to hedge their risks by diversifying their portfolios, and took chances on companies they knew nothing about. The bear market wiped out much of their wealth, leaving retirees scrambling to recoup their losses and young people without any savings. And only adding to small investors' unease has been all the business scandals that have created new worries concerning whom they can trust in corporate America. Sure, there may be money to be made, but there's as good a chance that there's money to be lost.

Black Blade: And so it goes as the Lemmings neglected to insure their portfolios with precious metals and got what they deserved. Ouch!

R Powell

(04/21/2003; 13:50:17 MDT - Msg ID: 101652)

J-Bullion

J-Bullion, I see that Gandolf has provided you with a link to the US dollar Index. There is also a link "Quotes" at the top right hand side of the forum page that will take you mrci's delayed daily quotes. Almost all domestically trades commodities, bonds, indexes are there.
Rich

Black Blade

(04/21/2003; 14:12:30 MDT - Msg ID: 101653)

Weapons of Mass Destruction Found!!!

From the mailbag (courtesy of Eric Fry at Daily Reckoning):

The popular press says the US military found no weapons of mass destruction (MWDs) in Iraq...Lies! Damned lies!

Did the US military not find bank vaults full of euros? And did the military not topple a regime that threatened to use euros, even on their own people? What weapon could possibly inflict greater mass destruction than the euro? Iraq flaunted its contempt for dollars by insisting that it receive euros for its oil production. The evil regime subsequently stockpiled these monetary MWDs. Fortunately, we stepped in to put an end to this dangerous proliferation...and not a moment too soon. In the hands of the wrong people, euros could undermine the dollar's influence and blow apart our nation's financial underpinnings. Euro hegemony could inflict mass financial destruction here at home.

Thank goodness for America's new "gunboat monetary policy." We have dollarized the Iraqi economy at gunpoint. With the nascent threat to dollar hegemony eliminated, we may continue to safely borrow from foreigners and repay them with the paper and ink of our choosing. A little bit of advice to Syria: Don't bother expelling your chemical scientists, but get rid of your euro stockpiles at once!

And what about you all, over there in the Paris office? Are you stockpiling banknotes of mass destruction?...In the process arousing the ire of Rumsfeld and Bush? You might want to lighten up on those things, before cruise missiles start showing up at the
office, unannounced.

Black Blade: Of course now Iran and Indonesia are considering Euros for Oil. Hmmm�

R Powell

(04/21/2003; 14:14:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101654)

Gandalf

I believe, oh mighty wizard, you'll see POG guesses here, there and everywhere should you offer up a contest.

I have been wondering of late what signs to look for that might indicate that POG has transcended the normal bull market it is presently in. Specifically, imho, POG will appreciate on a long term basis due to the decreasing purchasing power of the dollar, negative interest rate, its ongoing fundamental supply/demand deficit, negative equity returns, safe haven buying, etc. but what signs will announce that POG has entered the investment limelight of the vast hoards known as crazy "irrational exuberence" or "the madness and mania of crowds". This may or may not happen but I believe the possibility does exist. Perhaps we'll see more little signs like the POG ticker that CNBC added or mainstream magazine articles (even gold pictured on the covers?). Will the evening national television news report POG every day?

I'm not passing any judgement whether or not this will be a long term positive occurance for gold and/or silver but I do believe blind, mania-type gold buying is a real possibility. I mention the "coming signs of mania gold buying" as a possible contest question if, indeed, you are looking for such to accompany the price guessing.
Just a suggestion to provoke thought.
Rich

J-Bullion

(04/21/2003; 14:18:38 MDT - Msg ID: 101655)

USD Index

Thanks for the links. I used to watch the USD index on bloomberg until Major Bloomberg updated his website.

I just finished reading "The creature from Jekyll Island". I thought I understood the Fed pretty well, but that was a big eye opener. I'm now about 70% in gold/silver, and seeing what's going on around the world, that ratio may move up some more.

P.S. someone remember to feed spot over the next major holiday. He sure was hungry today.

Clink!

(04/21/2003; 14:23:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101656)

@ Gandalf re: POG contest

What a good idea ! But we must have a supplementary question - if nothing else but to get Lothar back out of lurking under his hill ! How about " Assuming all the gold in Fort Knox is now sold off, I would turn the facility into ..... "

C!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/21/2003; 14:31:29 MDT - Msg ID: 101657)

Great Money Giveaway obscures Strong Dollar Policy

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Today!

Because the phrase "strong dollar policy" is sounding anemic.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.
How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

R Powell

(04/21/2003; 14:52:02 MDT - Msg ID: 101658)

Goldbug 1// the unknown arts

Welcome. I saw your earlier (101626) post that revealed the existence of Fur Face, the POG foretelling feline. Having myself spent considerable time and effort at price divination derived from the art of chicken (plump Rhode Island Reds) entrail readings taken during the midnight hour under a new moon, I find myself most curious as to the methods your cat uses for prediction. I must also admit to being a bit curious as to how the divined message is communicated to you. Lastly, please plead for a price prediction from your prophesizing pussy for silver.
Thanks
Rich

Black Blade

(04/21/2003; 15:26:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101661)

Rich � POG Divinations

Chicken entrails are good. However, I find that doing the "antler dance" while nude under a full moon followed by reading the tossed chicken bones works well. (Yeah I know � not a pretty sight but ya gotta do what ya gotta do). ;-)

- Black Blade

Off to the gym! Not a pretty sight either. ;-)

rare gold

(04/21/2003; 15:28:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101662)

jeme jordan

I purchased some gold from Australia a few years ago and had it shipped to US, for about an $8,000 order I noticed about $120.00 extra on my credit card. When I called to enquire about the difference they said it was an exchange rate tax or something like that.

Raregold

TownCrier

(04/21/2003; 15:40:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101663)

Fed adds $6.25 billion to banking system

Conducting open market operations today the Fed "bought" $3.5 billion worth of ten-day RPs, and $2.75 billion of overnight repos for a total cash inflow to the banking system of $6.25 billion. The market in fed funds was trading at the FOMC's latest target rate of 1.25 percent at the time of the Fed's intervention.

..."no meaningful limit"...

R.

Black Blade

(04/21/2003; 15:53:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101665)

NY gold hit 19-day high in technical trade

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030421/markets_gold_3.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, April 21 (Reuters) - New York gold futures jumped to a 19-day high in technical trade Monday, ignoring a steady dollar and stock market, in trade thinner than usual due to Easter Monday holidays in major overseas bullion centers. Dealers said the rally accelerated when futures broke above $331.90/$332.00 and crossed the 200-day moving average, which is a key trend indicator for chart followers. "Fund buying out here all day long," explained a floor broker. "Dealers have been sellers, funds have been buyers -- as soon as we broke the 200-day moving average."

"There is a little bit of Far East buying here. It's kind of weird with the dollar strengthening up," said a bullion trader.

Black Blade: Not really weird when you think about it. The US dollar is grossly overvalued and the rising deficits and current account deficit the US dollar is poised to fall further. Take into account that the dollar is falling against the Euro and Asian investors are waking up to the fact that their government and banking leaders are deliberately destroying their own currencies it is only natural that they would avoid the dollar and look toward gold. Add to that the Asian "Wedding Season" is in full swing and Rural Asia is looking toward a bumper harvest of crops � the savings vehicle of choice � gold. The outlook for the next several months remains strong in Asia due to strong physical buying regardless of the paper trading game on the commodity exchanges. When the price is lower these people look at it as a "gift".

Off to the gym!

TownCrier

(04/21/2003; 16:05:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101666)

Gold heads higher

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030421/markets_gold_2.htmlNEW YORK, April 21 (Reuters) - New York gold futures jumped to a 19-day high in technical trade Monday, ignoring a steady dollar and stock market...

COMEX June gold ended up $6.30 at $333.90 an ounce...

Dealers said the rally accelerated when futures broke above $331.90/$332.00 and crossed the 200-day moving average, which is a key trend indicator for chart followers.

"Fund buying out here all day long," explained a floor broker.

...A lack of liquidity exacerbated the move, with key players from London, Sydney and Hong Kong out of the market until Tuesday.

...Spot gold was quoted late at $333.20/95, up from $326.85/7.55 late Thursday before the market closed for Good Friday.

"There is a little bit of Far East buying here. It's kind of weird with the dollar strengthening up," said a bullion trader.

--------(from article at url)-----

"...kind of weird..." he says. Not exactly the kind of analysis to trade on, but good enough to bank on if you know what time it is. Thanks to many of the generous posters at USAGOLD and the staff at Centennial, you do.

Patinum and palladium were both up, too, with palladium freshly bouncing off six-year lows. The article doesn't bother to mention silver (or for that matter any other metal besides the three noted above). It, too, was up.

R.

Aristotle

(04/21/2003; 18:57:40 MDT - Msg ID: 101667)

Alright, so I goes there, looking for a hearty Turk(ey) dinner...

http://www.gata.org/MoreProof.html... 'n all I got was dem bones.

Sheeeeesh. So much Gold-buggery, so little time to cry...

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Gandalf the White

(04/21/2003; 18:59:33 MDT - Msg ID: 101668)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

Link will be forthcoming as soon as Townie stops celebrating Easter ! (He is still finding colored eggs.)COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !

The CALL to Contest has been sounded !!! <;-)

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement ! (WITH prizes for each of the two Portions!)

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) JUNE 2003 Gold Contract (GC3M) on the date of MONDAY, the 28th of April, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Sunday, April 27th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the ANSWERS to the QUESTIONS posed by SIR MK:

"Why, after taking a verbal beating from the financial press during �Gulf War II� -- most notably the day-time television business chats -- does gold seem to be bouncing back?"

or, put another way:

"Does Maria Baritromo really have a secret gold stash tucked away in downtown New York, or is that just a nasty rumor being circulated on the gold internet?"

(Keep it clean, my fellow Goldmeisters.)

THE PRIZES !! (YES, I said PRIZES !)

To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the JUNE �03 (GC3M) SETTLEMENT price on Monday, April 28th, 2003 -----

The WINNING prize will be a German 20 Mark Wilhelm I Goldpiece (contains 0.2304 oz. of Gold) to the overall winner. ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)

Also, for the "best short essay" ANSWER, which SHOULD be included with the price guess, the WINNER shall receive ANOTHER GOLDEN German "Wilhelm I" 20 Mark Goldpiece. (It like the Wiz sometimes feels, is over 100 years old !)

(YES, Sir Lother of the Hill People, IT IS possible to win BOTH of the GOLDEN prizes !) <;-)
===

FYI

PREVIOUS Days GC3M Settlement prices were:
4/21/03 HIGH = $334.5 low = $327.6 Settle = $333.9 Change +$6.3 OI 4/18/03 = 109,944 contracts.

===

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)

LET the POG CONTEST BEGIN !!
<;-)

Goldbug 1

(04/21/2003; 19:03:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101669)

Fur Face reveals all..........

Thanks R Powell for the welcome.
You are curious as to how Fur Face foretells things. Nothing very exotic really. We write horse numbers on scraps of paper, screw them up and throw them in front of the Cat. The one he pounces on is noted. With gold he was offered 300, 325, 350, 375 400 etc. What is uncanny is his approximately 80% success rate. Try it with your pet (incidently if your pet is a crocodile it pays to put a piece of meat in each package!)
Today I tried Fur Face on Silver but he turned around and washed his bottom. Make what you like out of that one.
Anyway buy more gold coins and gold shares.

goldquest

(04/21/2003; 20:16:37 MDT - Msg ID: 101670)

****351.30****

Yes! Maria Bartiromo has a secret stash of gold! She is able to add to it once a year, as it is concealed in the ball that drops every New Years eve at Times Square! That's why New Years arrives earlier every year, due to the added weight of the GOLD!

Waverider

(04/21/2003; 20:28:50 MDT - Msg ID: 101671)

Gandalf

Wowsers - I return from skiing to find a double suprise! Spot was rather rambunctious today following his lounging while you were on vacation - he's apparently well rested for the work ahead. And...another POG guessing contest...YIPPEEEEE!! You know how Spot LOVES these contests ;o)

mikal

(04/21/2003; 20:32:30 MDT - Msg ID: 101672)

@goldquest

You say it's worth it's weight in gold?
Alright, we'll keep an eye on the ball as they keep the ball rolling.

makcumka

(04/21/2003; 20:42:21 MDT - Msg ID: 101673)

****340.3****

The prognostication has been cast!

The story unfolds.......

Concerned with the overall state of the economy, weakening profit outlooks from major corporations, growing national, corporate and personal debt load, and numerous other reasons for the economy to be in shambles, I turned my on TV to find the solution to the pressing question of any working bee-type Joe 6-pack: "What does the future hold?" Although, the answer was still hazy in my mind, and all the channels were full of latest news on liberation of the Iraqi people from the burden of Saddam's new threat of Dollar-destruction via exchanging oil for euros, I was able to find a bright light in the darkness of the financial future, a beacon for all who seeks the answer - CNBC! And there she was, the the oracle of the future, Maria Baritromo! My prayers were answered. It will be OK! We will prevail! I mean, if "Ramones" sang a love song dedicated to her, she must be on to something!

In search for more truth about the future - we all know that the only place to find a true prophet is the Iternet - I was mysteriously googled to the website that suggested that the oracle could be a closet gold hoarder. I was staggered by a mere thought of this kind. After all, who would ever want gold? Even the allmighty dollar was ruled to be too good to be backed by some metal that was the moving force for last 5000 years. The 21st century has its own rules, we can write our own history! So, after taking out a fourth mortgage on the family double-wide (my uncle stil has the original tire that it came with hanging on the wall in the living room) I set out on a journey to find the irrefutable proof, one way or the other.

The bicycle ride (can you believe the price of gas???) was long and enduring, but I made it to New York. After 3 days of hanging in front of the NBC studio I saw her! She looked even smarter than on TV! She had the aura of an all-knowing angel-like creature, but as soon as I tried to get her attention, she was whisked away by one of those yellow cabs.

Thank the dear lord for all the traffic jams in that city! I was barely able to keep up after the yellow moster that held a key to my family's financial future. But my wife and 2.3 kids depended on me. That thought, and a steady diet of spam and ramen noodles, carried me to the next destination. The BANK! I knew I was close. I could feel it as she disappeared behind the massive wooden doors guarded by.... but wait! Noone was guarding the doors, and I remembered the story of a former security guard, who let me borrow a nice cardboard box ($300 dollars a night? That's twice my third mortgage payment!). The security company has gone out of business. I could not believe my luck! I was about to enter the palace of high finance, but the people around me kept staring at my hairy legs and flip-flops that were not concealed by the overcoat I bought on my last credit card that was not maxed out. I put on my Dick Tracy hat and aviator sunglasses and decided to stay outside.

Shortly thereafter, the goddess of all that is true and certain emerged, carrying a heavy bag. I could see that it was loaded full with rolls of something that had a golden color to it. I thrust myslef to help her to carry the burden of the financial future, the answer to my eternal question. But as soon as I tried to approach her, she got into another cab and was gone. I looked around, but the bicycle was nowhere near, someone must have borrowed it. I ran to the spot where her feet touched the ground and, to my surprise, saw a roll in the gutter that probably fell out of her bag as she was getting in the car. I held the answer right there in my hand. I shall carry it to my hometown to enlighten the family. My mission was complete!

Sometime later.....

I was finally able to convince even my uncle, who doubts everything and everyone, to convert into the new answer for the financial prosperity. It was hard to get him to cross the county line to watch Maria on TV. But after he saw her, he knew the truth! He took down that tire off the wall and traded it in for the only thing that is certain - Sacagawea dollar coins!

21mabry

(04/21/2003; 20:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101674)

Bob Brinker

I read somewhere Bob Brinker expects the stock market to now be in a cyclical bull phase,he states this cycle will last 1 to 3 years.I will watch this with interest,Mr. Brinker made some great calls on the last stock bull run,he told his listeners to get out of equities in january of 2000 or there abouts it was a good call.Mr. Brinker seems to me to be anti gold he has never spoken well about the metal.I have not heard his show for a while it is no longer carried in my area.I wish it was,he seemed very knowlegable to me.Again I did not hear Mr.Brinker say this I read it off a website.

mikal

(04/21/2003; 21:43:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101675)

@makcumka

ROFL You're keeping the ball rolling. Very imaginative too.
As good as the time Black Blade proposed rolling around naked on his coins. Talk about rolling in money! Sacagawea should be rolling in her grave.

Toolie

(04/21/2003; 21:43:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101676)

Small manufacturers losing battle overseas

http://albany.bizjournals.com/extraedge/washingtonbureau/archive/2003/04/21/bureau1.html?market=albanySnips;

"Unlike typical business downturns of the past, when manufacturers simply cut back and waited for recovery, in the current downturn manufacturers are rapidly relocating outside the U.S., and large numbers of small and mid-sized U.S. manufacturers are closing down permanently due to foreign competition,"
.....
"The trickle-down effect on the American economy is clear," Anderberg says. "I believe that the American economy will not recover without having a successful, sound manufacturing base."
.....
"Many of our trading partners routinely exacerbate their natural advantages with unfair trade barriers, including manipulation of currency values," he says. "China is the most conspicuous offender in this regard, and is emerging as the primary threat to many of our core industries."
.....
"Did you, our congressmen, when approving the free trade initiatives really believe that we as small or mid-size manufacturers could compete?" he asked the House Small Business Committee. "When all of the fixed costs of government were placed upon us, did you think that we could compete with underdeveloped countries or with subsidized industries abroad?
"It astounds me that you wouldn't have thought that we as manufacturers, especially small, could compete with countries and governments that have no real rules or standards to bear in their industry."

Toolie; Many of the larger manufacturers are demanding that their suppliers follow them to Asia. They will take their investment capital with them, Why invest in the U.S. when a greater return rests in Asia? Any benefits gained by manufacturing with dividend tax cut will promptly flow into new Asia investment, not the U.S. We send our seed corn to abroad while half of the machinery in operation in the U.S. today was built in the 1960's.

Given the indebtedness of the U.S. consumer, the time will come when Chinese goods become too expensive, even WITH the Yuan pegged to the Dollar. What then will become of the Chinese overcapacity? Will there be a need to deflate the Yuan?

The above said, imho there are a few things that we can count on.
1) Gold
2) Silver
3) Our politicians will stay in denial about the necessity of an economy that produces tangibles, until they get a political 2X4 between the eyes.

Go get some tangibles!

mikal

(04/21/2003; 21:55:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101677)

@Gandalf the White

Re: "Keep it clean"
I must call to your attention the prurient treatment of the Barterollo damsel by the knave Makcumka. As relayed to us, she did NOT make a CLEAN escape into her carraige, but left behind a part of her femininity in the GUTTER, of all places!

Toolie

(04/21/2003; 21:58:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101678)

makcumka, 21mabry

makcumka- Bravo

21mabry- 760 AM Detroit Sat 4-7 P.M. Sun 6-8 P.M. I'm not sure about the times.

Goldbug 1

(04/21/2003; 22:20:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101679)

***********354.40*********

Lovely Maria Baritromo.........
I did but see her passing by
yet I shall love her till I die
(but I don't know where she stashes her gold)

21mabry

(04/21/2003; 22:20:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101680)

(No Subject)

Thnx Toolie, I remember when I used to listen to Mr. Brinker, anyone who called up and espoused many of the themes that we talk about in this forum,those people always upset Mr.Brinker he always send gold just sets there earning no interest, I remember that was his common theme.I do give him credit for alerting me to the stock market problems I did not save my own money but I saved my parents money. I wish I could hear his thoughts on golds preformence over the last 2 years.

Black Blade

(04/21/2003; 23:44:49 MDT - Msg ID: 101681)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

The government and the Fed is now hell bent on creating inflation in order to avoid a deflationary depression. The CPI and PPI numbers are starting to increase, which can be good news for investors who own companies that have the ability or the franchise power to pass on higher costs. Remember, a third of the return from equities this last century came from inflation. And it is inflation that is now upon us. When your house rises 20 percent or more a year, that is inflationary; when movie tickets go up 10 percent, that is inflationary; when your utilities, gasoline costs, heating bills, phone bills, cable bills, or property taxes go up, that is inflationary. You don't have the option of not counting these costs when you have to pay for them. As a consumer, these rising costs are real and not imaginary as so many of the government's economic numbers and gauges are concerned.

Fund managers chase tech stocks and Internet stocks with no real earnings or declining earnings, instead of look at investing in "things" that people need in order to live. People need energy, they need food, they need water, and they need medicine. As the value of paper diminishes as it is depreciated, they will also gravitate towards real money, which is reflected in silver and gold. Also look at hard currencies. Central banks are divesting themselves of dollars and will look at places to direct new money or old dollars. The Euro and the currency of raw material countries look attractive. Long-term Treasury investments should be avoided given the inflationary polices of the Fed. The bond market is one of the next bubbles to burst.

What is most likely to happen next is that we either get a hard correction triggered by some unforeseen event such as a terrorist attack, or the economic and earnings numbers get worse and can't be covered up by spin. That, in my opinion, is what happens next. After that, I believe the monetary and fiscal stimulus gives us a longer-lasting bear market countertrend that could take us into next year and the election with new records on the Dow.

Black Blade: Sounds about right to me. The BLS continues to massage the data to make things look better than they are, Wall Street lowers the bar each quarter so that companies can "beat the street", and the Wall Street and US government "spin machines" are dreaming up new excuses and twisting the truth. Nothing changes.

Black Blade

(04/22/2003; 00:22:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101682)

Natural gas still depleted

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/energy/1877278
Snippit:

NEW YORK -- The time of year to rebuild natural gas inventories has begun, and U.S. supplies are so depleted it will be hard to sock away enough for next winter. That means a hot summer that increases the gas used for power generation may push wholesale prices past the all-time highs touched earlier this year. The amount of gas stored in the United States is at a record-low 623 billion cubic feet, following a colder-than-normal winter, and production is behind demand. "Sometime between now and the winter you're going to see a big pop in gas prices," said Steven Farris, CEO of Apache, a Houston-based explorer and producer of oil and gas. "We don't have enough natural gas to meet demand."

Natural gas heats about half of U.S. homes and generates 17 percent of the nation's power. Electricity prices rallied as gas prices climbed earlier this year. Some makers of fertilizer and chemicals, for which natural gas can be the biggest raw material cost, cut production earlier this year because they couldn't recover the higher expense. April is typically the end of the heating season and the month when inventories start to rise, heading to a peak at year's end. "If we have a hotter-than-normal summer, with some key nuclear plant outages and a couple of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, then you're probably looking at record-low storage going into winter," said Tim Evans, senior energy analyst with IFR Pegasus in New York. Hurricanes can interrupt the output of offshore drilling rigs. "If on top of that we get a November or December cold snap, you may be looking at $20," Evans said. "That's where this market could go."

"The record low inventories could really mean disaster next winter if we can't turn this around," said Marshall Steeves, an energy analyst with Refco Group in New York.

Black Blade: Guess what, we can't turn this around. Unless we have a cool summer, an economic depression severe enough to shut down the economy, and a mild winter we will have that disaster people are beginning to worry about. This is injection season and we had a strong withdrawal from storage in the last EIA report.

Belgian

(04/22/2003; 00:27:38 MDT - Msg ID: 101683)

@ Ari

If I understood your message #101667, correctly...we do remain on the same wavelength, good knight !
No need to cry, Sir...
Regards, B.

Gandalf the White

(04/22/2003; 00:31:57 MDT - Msg ID: 101684)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

Link will be forthcoming as soon as Townie stops celebrating Easter ! (He is still finding colored eggs.)COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !
The CALL to Contest has been sounded !!! <;-)
---
LISTING of Entries in DECREASING order as of TUESDAY, 4/22/03, 00:01 Denver Time !

**** $354.4 **** Goldbug 1 (04/21/03; 22:20:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 101679)

**** $351.3 **** goldquest (04/21/03; 20:16:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 101670)

**** $340.3 **** makcumka (04/21/03; 20:42:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101673)

===
THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement ! (WITH prizes for each of the two Portions!)

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) JUNE 2003 Gold Contract (GC3M) on the date of MONDAY, the 28th of April, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Sunday, April 27th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the ANSWERS to the QUESTIONS posed by SIR MK:

"Why, after taking a verbal beating from the financial press during �Gulf War II� -- most notably the day-time television business chats -- does gold seem to be bouncing back?"

or, put another way:

"Does Maria Baritromo really have a secret gold stash tucked away in downtown New York, or is that just a nasty rumor being circulated on the gold internet?"

(Keep it clean, my fellow Goldmeisters.)

THE PRIZES !! (YES, I said PRIZES !)

To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the JUNE �03 (GC3M) SETTLEMENT price on Monday, April 28th, 2003 -----

The WINNING prize will be a German 20 Mark Wilhelm I Goldpiece (contains 0.2304 oz. of Gold) to the overall winner. ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)

Also, for the "best short essay" ANSWER, which SHOULD be included with the price guess, the WINNER shall receive ANOTHER GOLDEN German "Wilhelm I" 20 Mark Goldpiece. (It like the Wiz sometimes feels, is over 100 years old !)

(YES, Sir Lother of the Hill People, IT IS possible to win BOTH of the GOLDEN prizes !) <;-)
===

FYI

PREVIOUS Days GC3M Settlement prices were:
4/21/03 HIGH = $334.5 low = $327.6 Settle = $333.9 Change +$6.3 OI 4/18/03 = 109,944 contracts.

===

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)

LET the POG CONTEST BEGIN !!
<;-)

Aristotle

(04/22/2003; 01:35:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101685)

The same wavelength, Belgian

Thanks for that, and also for the meat and potatoes you've given (and pointed to) recently.

Gold. First and foremost, no if's, and's, or but's: Property. Secondly, the CB rabbit ain't so easily outta the hat. --- Ari

Belgian

(04/22/2003; 02:00:40 MDT - Msg ID: 101686)

Crude Oil...in self defense ?

Iran (and coalition-?) says that *only* a U.N. recognized Iraqi government can have a seat in OPEC !
Mega merger of Russian oil companies (Yukos-Sibneft) ! Russian, state controlled oil pipelines will be privatized ! Think about *future* oil-FLOW and price-management !!!
Rumsfeld denies the intention of permanent military stay in Iraq ! (humm)
Iraqi Shia *manifest* their freedom !!! (hummm)
Absolute silence in/on Saudi Arabia. OPEC-meeting on thursday. The oil-weapon has not and will not yet be used ! Stability and growth seem much more important, at present. Euro/Gold/oil - up.
Turkey *demands* to participate (MAJOR ROLE !) into the Iraq rebuilding ...or...!?

Black Blade

(04/22/2003; 02:35:03 MDT - Msg ID: 101687)

Gold Gold Who's Got The Gold?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/turk042303.html
An interesting article by James Turk. Three different methods to suggest that almost half the world's official gold reserves are gone. OK, a lot of smoke. It could also help explain why Congress has refused to authorize a detailed audit of US gold reserves. It also falls into line Ed Bugos recent article.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(04/22/2003; 02:45:01 MDT - Msg ID: 101688)

Exploiting the Delusions of Money � Ed Bugos

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/2003/bugos042203.htm
Snippit:

In the nineties, central bankers explained that the intention to sell their gold reserves was influenced by the opportunity costs of owning and storing it, which were rising with every uptick in stock prices during the period. That was the official reason. The inference was that gold had lost its monetary value. But despite the fact that it hadn't, the threat of liquidation helped them perpetrate yet another delusion. And yet again, the perpetuation of it drew us to what ails the monetary system. Unsound money. It is in the interest of a central bank to sell gold, but only while it has enough to sell. In other words, when a central bank threatens to sell its gold, it doesn't really want to get rid of all of it. It only wishes to sell it continuously in order to support the value of a currency it makes worth less each day the bank's inflationist dogma exists.

The advent of derivatives markets and other structured finance opportunities during the nineties enabled a myriad of new ways for central bankers to do this without having to actually reduce their stock of gold. Or so they thought. This is the problem they've found themselves in right now, as it costs increasingly more to close the outstanding arrangements (5000 to 10000 tons) made at lower gold prices. To avoid acknowledging this problem as originating from the delusion that gold is a worthless asset requires the conviction that the dollar is sound money, and that it didn't benefit from the leasing of too much gold in the nineties - even at the margin. The subtle difference between the central bankers' desire to sell some gold at the right time and getting rid of it outright is in reality quite enormous. But if there's no gold left to sell, the central banks are out of business (bad news for the BOE - hey, maybe that's another reason why they're going to adopt the Euro now).

Black Blade: An interesting article.

Topaz

(04/22/2003; 04:31:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101689)

Contest.

*****$326.5*****
Maria is far too into her Paper to be also into Gold. Nobody can be THAT wrong-footed time and again and STILL bounce back keen as mustard, Day...after Day...after Day!
OTOH Ms Martha exudes ALL the requisites of a paid-up Gold-Bug...wears "bulky" Gold jewellery...gives the impression she doesn't know or care what's going on in the SM...pretends she's just a dizzy blonde, 'atta girl Martha! You've got them all fooled.

Clink!

(04/22/2003; 06:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101690)

*** 345.0 ***

I thought I would do some googling of my own, in order to come up with some hidden gem of information that would possibly shed some light on the issue. But it turns out that this contest is no challenge whatsoever. She has even written a book about it ! "Use the News: How to Separate the Noise from the Investment Nuggets and Make Money in Any Economy" I mean, how more obvious can you get ?! She even understands the difference between money and currency !

C!

Nakajima

(04/22/2003; 08:17:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101692)

****343.3****

We are in an early Bull Market for hard assets, mainly because bubbles in other asset classes have been built as money rotated from the Nasdaq to the Dow to small cap stocks to Bonds to Real Estate. The war spiked the price of hard assets (oil and gold) up, then down, but did not disturb the trend of higher lows and higher highs. And the trend is now reasserting itself.

http://quote.fool.com/Chart/chart.asp?osymb=26099104&osymbols=26099104&symbols=26099104&currticker=26099104&time=2yr&uf=0∁idx=aaaaa%7E0&ma=0&symb=26099104&freq=1dy&lf=1∁=&type=16&sid=127608

mikal

(04/22/2003; 09:36:04 MDT - Msg ID: 101693)

More white powder found

http://www.reuters.comU.S. Postal Facility Evacuated After Powder Found
Tue April 22, 2003 10:40 AM ET
SEATTLE (Reuters) - "A postal facility was evacuated in Tacoma, Washington, on Tuesday after white powder found on a mail sorting table initially tested positive as a biotoxin, MSNBC reported. MSNBC said 94 people were evacuated from the mail distribution center and four of them were decontaminated. An army unit was brought in to investigate and carry out further tests.
U.S. authorities introduced new protective and reaction measures for biological attacks after letters laced with anthrax killed five people in 2001 as America launched its war on terrorism after the attack on the World Trade Center."

mikal

(04/22/2003; 09:41:46 MDT - Msg ID: 101694)

Yet more...

www.usatoday.comPosted 4/22/2003 10:16 AM�� Updated 4/22/2003 11:21 AM
Powders found in Wash., Fla. facilities
TACOMA, Wash. (AP) �Excerpt: "Hazardous materials teams are investigating powders found Tuesday on each U.S. coast. A Tacoma mail distribution facility was evacuated early Tuesday after some white powder was found at the building. A preliminary test indicated the Tacoma powder might contain plague or botulism, according to the Department of Homeland Security.
And in Fort Myers, Fla., investigators are checking a suspicious powder found in the air cargo building at Southwest Florida International Airport. Six people were transported to a hospital, officials said..."

Moegold

(04/22/2003; 11:12:27 MDT - Msg ID: 101695)

******367.8******

"Why, after taking a verbal beating from the financial press during �Gulf War II� -- most notably the day-time television business chats -- does gold seem to be bouncing back?" The US didn't protect the museums in Baghdad or many banks with Iraqi currency, but the banks with more than $1,000,000,000 worth of that relic, GOLD, have tanks guarding them!

Waverider

(04/22/2003; 11:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101696)

Dollar slides amid U.S. economic uncertainty

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030422/markets_forex_4.htmlSnip:
"Hobbled by uncertainty over the U.S. economy, the dollar fell sharply against the euro and yen on Tuesday, with investors shunning the U.S. currency in favor of the higher-yielding assets of other economies. With European traders returning from their Easter break, investors were now concentrating on the tenuous state of the U.S. economy, its comparatively lower yielding assets, as well as the structural imbalances that analysts have long warned are unsustainable.

We seem to have gone from an environment of geopolitical uncertainty to economic uncertainty pretty quickly," said Jason Bonanca, foreign exchange analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston in New York. He says the massive U.S. current account deficit and the burgeoning budget imbalance were making investors leery of purchasing U.S. assets. "There's simply not enough new capital being generated to flow across the U.S. border and fund this beast," Bonanca added. "Without a lot of current yield to attract people ... the absolutely low level of U.S. rates puts the kibosh on a certain number of flows that would have happened."

HARDCASE

(04/22/2003; 11:32:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101697)

test

test of password

Cometose

(04/22/2003; 11:39:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101698)

Silver

is tracking the dollar pretty much step for step and is showing remarkable strength today .....this feels reminescent of the last runnup . However , the war isn't with us anymore and there are some new concerns cropping up here and there . In addition it looks like the dollar is going to test it's bottom sometime soon........is there anything to prop it up.... The ppt may need to enlist the service of Atlas to suppress the price of GOLD at the time propping up the dollar....It may be that Atlas' Services are now in the employ of Midas

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/22/2003; 11:52:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101699)

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

Marie Ballard Ext 106

We look forward to your inquiry.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/22/2003; 12:02:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101700)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

Eleanor of Aquitaine

(04/22/2003; 12:04:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101701)

**353.9**

"Why, after taking a verbal beating from the financial press during �Gulf War II� -- most notably the day-time television business chats -- does gold seem to be bouncing back?"

Well, my goodness, we're realizing that the financial press have nothing to say except opinions, and are simply a bunch of rabble who babble from the peanut gallery.

Buy gold!

TownCrier

(04/22/2003; 12:39:23 MDT - Msg ID: 101702)

Sustaining

From WGC O'Connell's daily comments today from London:

"Easter trading is always thin, with London and Europe closed. This week-end saw gold's price run up towards $334/ounce before easing ahead of London's opening today and although conditions were thin, the market is seeing the move as reasonably constructive in that
a) it considerably improves the technical view by virtue of the piercing of the 200-day moving average and
b) recent selling appears to have abated.
There is some suggestion that part of the buying has been coming from the trade as well as forcing some short-covering activity among speculative elements. The note of caution expressed in some quarters, however, is that these prices will need to be sustained for the change in tone to be confirmed."

--------

Today's gold performance was a good start toward that confirmation, especially in light of the strong day concurrently occuring on Wall Street.

R.

Black Blade

(04/22/2003; 12:55:34 MDT - Msg ID: 101703)

Natural-Gas Prices May Soar Should the Summer Swelter

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=aFTGCeOxl_M8&refer=canada
Snippit:

New York, April 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. natural gas prices may climb this summer as utilities and storage companies seek to sock away sufficient supplies before cold weather returns, industry executives and analysts said. The amount of gas stored in the U.S. is at a record-low 623 billion cubic feet following a colder-than-normal winter. That may push prices to an all-time high as it did in 1996, the last time storage was so depleted. Any summer heat wave that diverts gas from stockpiles to power generation may spur a rally. Natural gas heats about half of U.S. homes and fires 17 percent of the country's power generation. ``Sometime between now and the winter you're going to see a big pop in gas prices,'' said Steven Farris, Chief Executive of Apache Corp., the Houston-based explorer and producer of oil and gas. ``We don't have enough natural gas to meet demand.''

Natural gas production may be insufficient, analysts said. U.S. production fell by about 2.6 percent in 2002 and is projected to recoup only part of that decline this year as demand gains almost 3 percent, according to the U.S. Energy Department. Storage facilities need to be filled at a record pace to reach normal levels by winter, when demand peaks, the agency said. Should gas prices climb, electricity prices would rally, as they did earlier this year. Makers of fertilizer, chemicals and other products that use natural gas as a raw material might be forced to shut down. Such industries reported production cuts when gas rallied because they couldn't recover the higher costs.

``If we have a hotter-than-normal summer, with some key nuclear plant outages and a couple of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, then you're probably looking at record-low storage going into winter,'' said Tim Evans, senior energy analyst with IFR Pegasus in New York. Hurricanes can interrupt the output of offshore drilling rigs. ``If on top of that we get a November or December cold snap, you may be looking at $20,'' Evans said. ``That's where this market could go.'' Storage levels are down 49 percent from the five-year average, slashed by the frigid winter that ate through 2.5 trillion cubic feet of gas. Stockpiles peaked at 3.17 trillion cubic feet in October. Analysts say about 3 trillion is needed at the start of the season to meet demand during an average winter. ``The record low inventories could really mean disaster next winter if we can't turn this around,'' said Marshall Steeves, an energy analyst with Refco Group Ltd. in New York. The gas going into storage will be short of what's needed if it's hot this summer, said Jim Duncan, an analyst with ConocoPhillips in Houston. ``Last year, we put in 1.7 trillion. If we do that, we're starting at 2.4 trillion going into winter. Under that scenario, you get scared in about September.''

Black Blade: As I said a few months ago � "it's a done deal". We are very likely to hit the wall this winter regardless of what happens. There simply are not enough drill rigs in existence, permitting and land access remains an issue, mature and even new NatGas fields are in steep decline, there is no way to get NatGas from where it is to where it is needed, older coal and fuel oil power plants are decommissioning to meet requirements under the "clean air act", etc. The only thing that can save us is a hard ripping economic depression to kill demand and even that is unlikely to stem enough demand. Higher energy costs are going to hit the U.S. economy like a ton of bricks later this year. "Second half recovery?" Forget about it.

Black Blade

(04/22/2003; 13:07:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101704)

Dreamcatchers - Stephen Roach (New York)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030421-mon.html#anchor0
Snippit:

The dream merchants are hard at work peddling the tale of another economic revival. The magic of postwar relief is widely billed as the catalyst. A veil of uncertainty will be lifted � so goes the argument � prompting businesses and consumers, alike, to unleash the animal spirits of pent-up demand. Just as America led the charge to Baghdad, the US economy is now presumed to lead the way to global recovery. Prewar malaise will give way to postwar healing, and presto � world financial markets will unwind many of the trades that have been in place for the past six months. Just like that.

To me, this is a leap of faith of Herculean proportions. While I certainly concede it is possible to get from Point A to Point B, I am hard-pressed to believe that the path will be seamless or expeditious. As I see it, there are five myths to the recovery call of 2003, each of which draws the postwar healing scenario into serious question:

Black Blade: Another interesting article from Roach. The US economy is buried under a crushing weight of growing debt, mired in slow growth and unrealistic expectations.

Black Blade

(04/22/2003; 13:17:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101705)

The next buying binge?

http://money.cnn.com/2003/04/21/news/economy/replacement/index.htm
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Many economists hope a need to replace outdated equipment and technology will spur a business-spending spree -- the powerful medicine the ailing U.S. economy needs -- any minute now. But there are few signs that such a binge is on the way. By some lights, it should have happened already. According to the laws of the technology-replacement cycle -- which used to hold that technology needed to be upgraded every three years, approximately -- businesses should have long ago replaced all the equipment they bought in the late 1990s to protect themselves from would-be disasters such as the euro conversion and Y2K. But, for the most part, they haven't -- or at least they haven't done it all at once -- either because they've been able to milk maximum use out of those turn-of-the-century computers or because belt-tightening measures simply haven't allowed the extravagance of an upgrade, or both.

Black Blade: Capex spending simply is not happening. For example, how much faster does a computer really need to be? If older equipment can be just as useful or efficient, why upgrade? Companies are cutting costs everywhere they can and that includes not just laying off workers, but also not buying unneeded equipment. Don't look for "economic recovery" here either � ain't gonna happen!

Gandalf the White

(04/22/2003; 13:20:07 MDT - Msg ID: 101706)

TA TA TAAAAAAAA ---- UPDATE !!

I think that Townie is NOW working on a LINK to the POG CONTEST!!! <;-)A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
---

FYI

PREVIOUS Days GC3M Settlement prices were:
4/21/03 HIGH = $334.5 low = $327.6 Settle = $333.9 Change +$6.3 OI 4/18/03 = 109,944 contracts.
4/22/03 HIGH = $336.8 low = $332.4 Settle = $334.8 Change +$0.9 OI 4/21/03 = 109,484 contracts.

AND Sir makcumka is now the "King of the Hill "
---
LISTING of Entries as of TUESDAY, 4/22/03, 13:01 Denver Time !

**** $367.8 **** Moegold (04/22/03; 11:12:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 101695)

**** $354.4 **** Goldbug 1 (04/21/03; 22:20:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 101679)

**** $353.9 **** Eleanor of Aquitaine (04/22/03; 12:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101701)

**** $351.3 **** goldquest (04/21/03; 20:16:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 101670)

**** $345.0 **** Clink! (04/22/03; 06:07:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 101690)

**** $343.3 **** Nakajima (04/22/03; 08:17:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101692)

**** $340.3 **** makcumka (04/21/03; 20:42:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101673)

**** $326.5 **** Topaz (04/22/03; 04:31:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 101689)
===
LET the POG CONTEST CONTINUE !!

<;-)

Black Blade

(04/22/2003; 13:27:24 MDT - Msg ID: 101707)

Does a Falling Money Stock Cause Economic Depression?

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1211&titlenum=&FS=&title=&Month
Snippit:

Despite the aggressive lowering of the federal funds rate target from 6.5% in December, 2000 to the current level of 1.25%, U.S. economic activity remains subdued. Faced with a lackluster response to this aggressive monetary stance, it is tempting to draw parallels with the 1930's economic depression.

Black Blade: Some interesting comparisons between today and the 1930's depression and draws on Japan as an example. This guy and Stanley Roach of Morgan Stanley appear to be on the same page. I think that stagflation is more likely for a number of reasons but an interesting article nonetheless.

Waverider

(04/22/2003; 13:32:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101708)

VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlSnip:
"There are a number of long-term trends that are positive for the price of gold that appear certain to persist. Among these are higher energy prices, higher deficits, a weakening U.S. dollar, and higher inflation..."

Zhisheng

(04/22/2003; 13:36:09 MDT - Msg ID: 101709)

***350.0***

Post Gulf War II influence of the financial press.It is the general public which is influenced by the financial press---and the general public has not yet entered the game.

The funds, the foreign accumulators, the Central Banks, the bullion banks, the hedged mining companies, and the "gold bugs" either have private sources of information, or bypass the financial press via internet sites such as USA Gold, or just directly evaluate the fundamentals and act accordingly.

When the public does enter, in a later stage of the gold bull market, THEN the financial press will have some influence on the market.

Pan

(04/22/2003; 13:42:50 MDT - Msg ID: 101710)

++The Chinese government last week endorsed the law to liberalise gold trading++

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/23Apr2003_biz75.htmlPranda set to strike gold early in China

Sars impact forces Beijing to liberalise

Nareerat Wiriyapong

The Sars virus has proved a windfall of sorts for Pranda Jewelry Plc, enabling it to aggressively penetrate the Chinese market after the mainland government recently decided to remove gold trading curbs in order to boost its economy, hard hit by the outbreak of the disease.

Chairman Prida Tiasuwan said the Chinese government last week endorsed the law to liberalise gold trading, which formerly could only be carried out by two state banks in each province.

The market openness policy has arrived two years ahead of schedule, although expectations were that World Trade Organisation requirements would force China to implement liberalisation sooner rather than later.

Pranda had earlier announced that it would open a manufacturing plant in Guangzhou in September this year.

The 60-million-baht factory is set to produce silver, gold and white gold ornaments with a maximum capacity of 700,000 items in six years' time.

``Right after November, we will start to market the Prima Gold (99.99% gold ornament) brand by opening retail shops,''

Sales of Prima Gold in China would follow Pranda's release of its Esse silver ornament brand earlier this year and the appointment of Home Shopping Shanghai, originally an Australian retailer, as its distributor in the mainland.

Pranda has set a target to achieve annual sales of US$3 million of the Esse brand in China within three years.

The gold market in China was limited before the liberalisation to a total demand of 300-400 tonnes per year. But the market had the potential to be as high as 700-800 tonnes a year, said Mr Prida.

Meanwhile, Pranda has suspended a plan to enter India as it said it had an insufficient number of staff to support further overseas expansion.

India now consumes close to 900 tonnes a year of gold, out of global demand of 3,000 tonnes per year. (4000 Tonnen Goldnachfage pro Jahr w�re die korrekte Zahl! TG)

[b][i]``We have targeted opening a factory in India in the future to capitalise on the huge demand for gold ornaments there and while the import tariff is high,''[/b][/i] Mr Prida said.

Shareholders at Pranda's meeting yesterday agreed to support its investment plans that include expanding a factory in Vietnam and the strengthening of its marketing presence in both Vietnam and Indonesia (where it operates two factories) by opening more retail shops.

Also approved at the meeting was a dividend payment of 0.50 baht per share for its 2002 performance after sales rose by 11.6% from a year earlier to 2.5 billion baht and profit climbed to 379 million baht from 364 million, said Prapee Sorakraikitikul, Pranda's president.

Sales surged by 25% year-on-year in the first quarter to 525 million baht due to the larger penetration of new markets.

However, the impact of the Iraq war is expected to take a toll on its performance this quarter.

[b][i]``We target sales in the second quarter to be flat from 470 million baht posted in the same period last year. Targeted sales growth of 15% for the entire year could be achieved or even higher,''[/b][/i] she said.

Pranda shares closed yesterday at 5.05 baht, down 10 satang.

Cavan Man

(04/22/2003; 13:50:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101711)

@ Black Blade

I'm out here in the trenches selling corrugated boxes. I can tell you firsthand it is bad and getting worse.

Clink!

(04/22/2003; 14:50:38 MDT - Msg ID: 101712)

@ Black Blade re the next buying binge

In the 90's, there was a feverish rush for the next faster, better, cheaper widget. The idea was that a worker's throughput would increase with the information flow. But I read an article in a trade magazine a few months ago (EE Times, I believe, but I'm not sure) which made the point that IT managers have made the rather surprising discovery that because workers aren't having to continually learn new software and methods, that training needs (and therefore costs) are dropping and productivity is actually rising as people get thoroughly familiar with all the ins and outs of their system. Unfortunately, lowered demand coupled with increasing productivity leads to layoffs, which leads to lowered demand .....

TownCrier

(04/22/2003; 14:56:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101713)

COMEX gold lifted by strong euro at open

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030422/markets_precious_1.htmlNEW YORK, April 22 (Reuters) - COMEX gold rallied to its highest prices in almost three weeks Tuesday, piggy backing off a surging euro and building on Monday's upmove in New York.

"Yesterday was all technical. Today, the euro is definitely giving it a goose," said a floor broker. "We started the day off with some good dealer buying and it's holding the market up."

The euro rose to $1.1002 Tuesday, the highest since it was near a four-year peak on March 12. The strong euro makes dollar-denominated gold more affordable to European investors.

------(from url)-------

The logic being sold here seems to be that because Europeans are such profound gold buyers anyway, these extra euro-based bargains are pressuring the demand for New York derivatives higher. Whatever.

The point to walk away with is more general in the respect that there is significant physical gold demand in various non-American regions of the world. As the dollar weakens against those various currencies, if the dollar-price of gold does not rise accordingly, the net effect is that it becomes cheaper to those non-American buyers. They become able to take more quantity out of the physical market with their same wads of non-dollar cash.

Conceptually, this extra pressure on the physical market gives the COMEX speculators reasonable expectations that the price of gold must inevitably head higher, and it's their subsequent action to leverage their expectation with futures contracts that contributes to the rise in New York's key method of price discovery.

Through this we see that some folks -- mostly overseas -- are playing a prudent game of getting the physical value of gold for their money while others -- New York players -- ante up and square off against counterparties in a largely independent paper tug-of-war with derivatives of gold.

As some people find security in the enduring value of physical gold during episodes of monetary disruptions and counterparty default, where will the derivative players find value during those times? Investments in gold derivatives are not only counterintuitive in this regard, they are likely disastrous.

Call Centennial for your stake in the real deal.

R.

Alaskan hunter

(04/22/2003; 14:59:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101714)

Anything into Oil

http://www.discover.com/current_issue/index.htmlBy Brad Lemley
Worried about rising gas prices and U.S. reliance on Middle Eastern crude? Relief may be on the way. A new process turns almost any waste�including plastic, tires, sewage, and even turkey guts�into high-grade petroleum.

George, Check this out!

-Ron

Black Blade

(04/22/2003; 15:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101715)

Re: Clink!

It appears that the technology is getting faster but people aren't. Also, once a worker learns one system (software or tech) and then has to learn another the whole idea of increasing productivity through technology gains is lost. I can just imagine the "burn out" as IT people are constantly learning system after system and older systems are jettisoned for newer ones. Just trying to keep up is quite a chore. However, in the current economic environment it is not likely to expect companies to continually upgrade unless substantial gains can be assured. It's a tough call for many companies as they search for ways to cut costs.

BTW, I see that tech company profits are on the rise again � although these are the "pro forma" kind. Yikes!

- Black Blade

JemeJordan

(04/22/2003; 15:23:27 MDT - Msg ID: 101716)

South African Krugerrands Vrs Mexican 50 Gold Peso

Ok people

Whats a better deal South African Krugerrands Vrs Mexican 50 Gold Pesos

CoBra(too)

(04/22/2003; 16:06:29 MDT - Msg ID: 101717)

As BB says - Interesting Times!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7FBCA380%2D1B18%2D44AB%2D822B%2DA56BF2E85FD0%7D&siteid=mktwIt may have been E-Bay's profits doubling - for me rather a sign that p(sh-)eople hock more than their residences - turning around the SM's. Though, who really cares - may the momentum players have another day, or two in the sun.

Or was it some sign of the where-abouts of Saddam Hussein - who really cares in the long run, as it won't wipe out the accumulated debt on the American balance sheets. So let 'em party - a day, a week or even a month or a year more ... in the end it's the dance on the vulcano.

Vulcanic action has probably provided the earth's crust with some Gold. In the overall picture it wasn't much - though that's why it's still of value - because it's a scarce commodity. A commodity, which in quantity may have been squandered for paper fiat by the PTB/CB - more than they would want to acknowledge.
...(see: James Turk latest, despite Ari's nonchalant dismissal of same - a stance, I personally don't really understand, nor underwrite as it may just be the pure physical advocate speaking, ridiculing every and all other interpretation. Akin to the dogma I'm hearing all over - if you're not with us you're against us!).

Anyway, I've come to respect the guy over the years, having read his great essays on this site some years back and may even consider that he's correct - in the final analysis, in which he is! What I've been missing is the time factor in his simple solution of - gold, get u some! ... and potentially some other - maybe unfortunate or even imbecile factors - for us mere peasants and serfs to get us some more all of the time, most of the time and hold on through time - without either starving, quenching or suffocating.

As 'Belgian' replied to my 'good natured' naivete� (I hope), not really being aware of the relatively new (for me)abbreviation of "PNAC", which I was not, really! - Never-the-less it sure scares the hell out of me - though take heart, Master Belgian - I've always been happy to preserve some naivite� as the main means of ingenuity - and so I see you guys figuring out if still being on the same wave-length?
Fine with me - though would you consider giving others some leeway, or even freedom of thought (as used to be 'granted'
by the constitution) - or else hammer in the only solution to all of the problems - GOLD GET YOU SOME!

Got some - whatever is adequate, suitable, affordable and/ or prudent - is still up for discussion ... IMHO cb2

... interesting times - for sure - @BB

Cometose

(04/22/2003; 16:33:38 MDT - Msg ID: 101718)

Bear Market Commentary / Vox Day

Here's an interesting piece on PPT ..and other side shows with particular emphasis on Chart's everywhere screaming..........a rueful future... Also a bit of index trivia that might be of interest and a golden nugget for some.....DID YOU KNOW THAT THE GERMAN DAX IS UP 30% since the beginning of GULF WAR II(since march)? Since NOVEMBER the Nasdaq is up about the same percentage....
From my own observations ....the Nasdaq still not broken resistance and the DOW and S&P look like pennants since November....Looks like we're in for a break out soon and the dollar should tell us what's going to be what.....
Based on someone's observation that GOLD is moving in 2 month cycles now ....leaving about 6 weeks left on the upside in this rally , we're likely going to see some fireworks soon ....in a Locomotion breakdown over a subterannean vacuum accomppanied by a sucking sound where paper burns and value's essense spirits itself away lighting upon a new investment universe......it's a great show . Get there early , for a great seat from which to watch the spectacle......Things may happen a little more forcefully than in days of old because of the information age in which mountains of cash move digitally around the world in an instant in time....

John the Jute

(04/22/2003; 16:33:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101719)

An old-fashioned millionaire

Recent discussion of long-term changes in the price of gold have tempted me out of the shadows and into a maiden append. This jeu d'esprit is in honour of the ninetieth anniversary of 1913 -- the last year of the heyday of the gold standard, before the Great War dealt it a blow from which it never completely recovered.

In 1913, there was no doubt at all as to how much gold you could buy for a dollar. The US mint took small round ingots containing one ounce and one-and-a-half pennyweights of nine-tenths gold alloy, and stamped Augustus Saint Gaudens' fine engraving of Liberty on one side and an eagle -- together with the words "twenty dollars" -- on the other. So twenty dollars could buy you (0.9 x 1.075) ounces -- 0.9675 ounces -- of fine gold at any bank.

According to the latest London gold fix, the price of gold at 8 am MDT to-day (April the 22nd) was $334.90 an ounce. So 0.9675 ounces of fine gold now costs $324.02.

This means that the price of gold in the United States has increased by a factor of 16. Or, equivalently -- and perhaps more accurately -- the value of a dollar has declined by a factor of 16 ... to about six cents.

So an old-fashioned girl (or anyone else) looking for an old-fashioned millionaire ought to be looking for someone worth a million old-fashioned dollars -- $16,000,000 in the modern six-cent dollars!

A factor of 16 isn't actually that bad. In 1913, my native land minted about twenty-five million sovereigns, each with Benedetto Pistrucci's fine engraving of St George & the Dragon on the back, and each made out of 123.274 grains of eleven-twelfths gold alloy -- 0.2354 ounces of fine gold. At to-day's price of £212.096 an ounce, 0.2354 ounces of fine gold now costs £49.93.

So the value of a pound sterling has declined by a factor of 50 ... to about five old-fashioned pence.

But this isn't even close to the greatest decline. As far as I can tell, that record belongs to Hungary which, in the dark days of 1946, issued a banknote for 100 quintillion pengö -- 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 pengö -- worth about four dollars.

For the currency which has had the greatest decline without its society collapsing into totalitarian rule -- as well as the currency with the least decline -- we have to go to the franc.

In 1913, a franc was a franc. Twenty-franc gold coins from Belgium, France or Switzerland -- or from Morocco, Algeria or Tunisia -- were all worth the same. Born during the French Revolution, this size of coin -- containing 5.8065 grams (0.1867 ounces) of fine gold -- spread throughout Europe: first as part of the Napoleonic Empire and later, peaceably, as part of the Latin Monetary Union. Its influence spread beyond the LMU: coins containing 0.1867 ounces of fine gold were used in at least a dozen countries across Europe

In the late 19th century, France tried to persuade the United Kingdom to join this monetary union. Plus ça change,...

Over the period since 1913, the most stable currency that I can find is, unsurprisingly, the Swiss franc. At $334.90 an ounce, and 1.38 Swiss francs to the dollar, 0.1867 ounces of fine gold -- which cost 20 francs in 1913 -- now costs 86 francs.

A decline in value by a factor of only 4 in ninety years. Most impressive.

The French franc has not had nearly such a good run. At to-day's price of €304.843 an ounce, and the official conversion rate of 6.55957 French francs to the euro (and not forgetting the couple of noughts that France knocked off in 1959), 0.1867 ounces of fine gold -- which cost 20 francs in 1913 -- now costs 37333 old francs.

A decline in value by a factor of nearly 2000 in ninety years. The stability of the currency may not have been too good, but it says a lot for the stability of French society which survived the trauma and remained a democracy.

R Powell

(04/22/2003; 17:23:17 MDT - Msg ID: 101720)

Fur Face Confirms // Higher Silver Prices Assured !!!!!

From Goldbug 1 (101669) refering to her gold price foretelling feline, Fur Face, and the future price of silver.....

"Today I tried Fur Face on Silver but he turned around and washed his bottom. Make what you like out of that one."

Obviously the four legged sage has indicated that the price of silver has BOTTOMED. Your clairvoyent cat knows that we may never see the POS below $4.50 again in this lifetime or in any of his other eight lives! Of this interpretation there can be no doubt, regardless of the ill-conceived sub $4.00 predictions that have been made by the Elliot wave cultist. Albeit, this is the fantastic feline's first formal foray for the future forcasting for the finest white metal, his 80% accuracy rating with gold certainly enhanses his chances with silver. Please relay my highest regards to Mr. Face.

Another strong showing today for silver. Both the commercials and non-commercials were short as of last week's COT report. Open interest has not been increasing which may indicate this recent price rise is short covering. I'm curious as to what the small players are doing, I believe they may upset the years' long see-saw of buying and selling between the big money gamblers. Perhaps one of these days some news (any news?) of supply and/or demand in silver will appear. Fundamentals haven't moved the silver market since Beelzibub was a pup. Thoughts?
Rich

VanRip

(04/22/2003; 17:31:16 MDT - Msg ID: 101721)

*****347.50*****

Maria does NOT have a gold stash in New York or anywhere else, for that matter, yet. A friend of a friend of a friend says she is still studying the gold market to make sure she doesn't make a mistake when it comes to buying. Word is that she has purchased several unusual and rarely read books on gold and is deeply involved in trying to figure out the deeper meaning she is certain is buried in each. They are:

Closing out Gold Longs Without Losing Your Shorts by Justin Thyme
The Great Russian Mine Heist by I. Kutchaclaimoff
The Fading Golden Stream by oldtimer I.P.Daily
How to Spot the Shiney in the Muck by Seymour Gold, and
Making a Fortune in Precious Metals by I.M.Phooling

Cometose

(04/22/2003; 17:52:07 MDT - Msg ID: 101722)

The Economy

Seems as though CNNmoney went out and conducted a Consumer Confidenc poll and it's at a 7 month high...60% of the respondents said that they had their finances were in excellent condition....This kind of poll is comprable to taking a poll at Parkview where everyone is pumped on Thorazine by asking the inturns how they feel physically...
They all feel fine.....T V viewing over the past half century has made most americans semi delusional most of the time . All you have to do is introduce some pharmaceuticals into the mix and REALITY becomes as elusive as integrity on Wall Street.

Wild Hare

(04/22/2003; 18:01:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101723)

Welcome John the Jute

>>>Recent discussion of long-term changes in the price of gold have tempted me out of the shadows and into a maiden append. This jeu d'esprit is in honour of the ninetieth anniversary of 1913 -- the last year of the heyday of the gold standard, before the Great War dealt it a blow from which it never completely recovered.

Is it coincidence that you timed your outing to correspond to St. George's day?

21mabry

(04/22/2003; 18:02:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101724)

Buying gold

JemmeJordan, I have been able to buy 50 pesos for the price of gold content,but that was from someone I knew.The kuggerand I have found to have the lowest premium most of the time,but it has reporting requirments when you sell more than 25 ounces at a time.My advice just keep alert sometimes dealers may have a special or deal on coins.For example I got a good deal on philharmonics once because I was in the right place at the right time.Overall though kuggerands usually have lowest premium.

R Powell

(04/22/2003; 18:06:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101725)

Thoughts and opinions

John the Jute (not an Anglo or a Saxon but a Jute!), thanks for (101719) history of some depreciating fiats. Why do you suppose the Swiss faired so much better than the rest? Do they not add to their paper money supply?

Cometose, Dax and Nasdoggie both up 30%? I'm curious as to Hamilton's theory of stock index numbers and the VIX index. He must be calling for a downturn as the VIX is now very low. He has been spot on with his POG calls for some time now. One of his articles had a chart with some huge POG dollar numbers on it. Hope he continues theorizing correctly!

CoBra(too) There is often little to be gained in discussing opinions based on dogma. Whether right or wrong, correct or incorrect, any discussion presupposes some flexibility of thought. Indisputable beliefs held as unquestionable truth preclude further thought. This is the basis or foundation of faith (religion) and one reason why I do not associate with any such formally recognised organizations. However, at least religion is some counterbalance against totalitarianism.

"I'll never know by livin, only my dying will tell"
Blood, Sweat and Tears
Silver.....Get you some
Rich

21mabry

(04/22/2003; 18:12:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101726)

(No Subject)

I seen on the news they found 600 million dollars in 100 dollar bills in Iraq,it made me wonder exactly how much U.S. currency is in or out of circulation in the world.Probably the amount is beyond count and how much of it is fake.

The Invisible Hand

(04/22/2003; 18:43:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101727)

No Proof

http://www.gata.org/MoreProof.html
In a paper which GATA describes as part of the 1 percent of what is published about the gold market that is documented and verifiable and not mere speculation and rumor at best, and disinformation at worst, like the remaining ninety-nine percent, James Turk would have uncovered more documentation of U.S. government intervention in the gold market intervention and, perhaps more important, strong evidence that the governments that have been intervening against gold are running out of metal.

After saying that there is no question that some CB gold has been removed from the vaults and loaned into the market, the article goes on to say that economic models prove that the _extension_ of credit debases a currency which is a principle that holds true for any money, whether dollars, euros or gold. The author comes via a third way, the analysis of the flow of gold leaving the CB vaults, and more precisely the analysis of UK import and export statistics, to the same conclusion as Veneroso and Howe, i.e. that 15,000 tonnes of gold have been leased out.

I do not know what Turk means by the extension of credit. In my (non-native English) mind, this means the granting of credit (what's wrong with that? � see next paragraph), but perhaps he means expansion of credit.

Now, credit expansion can only happen with money substitutes. Commodity credit cannot be expanded. The only vehicle for credit expansion is circulation credit. But the granting of circulation credit does not always mean credit expansion. If the amount of fiduciary media previously issued has consummated all its effects upon the market ..., granting of circulation credit without a further increase in the quantity of fiduciary media is no longer credit expansion. Credit expansion is present only if credit is granted by the issue of an additional amount of fiduciary media, not if banks lend anew fiduciary media paid back to them by the old debtors
(Mises, "Human Action", Contemporary Books, 3d rev.ed., p.432-434 ) Credit expansion is the issuance of pseudo warehouse receipts in excess of the actual weight of specie on deposit ( Rothbard, "Man, Economy and State", 2001 Mises Institute Edition, p.850).

You don't need any models to establish Turk's conclusion if it indeed relates to credit expansion. Just plain economic theory will suffice. This economic theory is applicable to paper substitutes of money, but not to money itself, gold. Applicable to paper gold perhaps, but not to gold itself.

Turk alleges to have found evidence that 7,000 tonnes have been sold by the US and UK CB's. Monkey see, monkey do, so the European CB's have also sold 8,000 tonnes. Why would European CBs sell their gold for the (once) almighty dollar? In order to destroy the euro? Ah, but Turk's thesis is part of the one percent of non-speculative analysis that stubbornly refuses to take the euro into account.

As indicated , Turk says that he thereby confirms the conclusions of Veneroso and Howe. Veneroso would come to his conclusions through a supply and demand perspective, Howe through an analysis of the derivative activities of banks.

Now if you read Howe's latest commentary at
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary24.html#anchor207796
you will read that, and I quote.
"Assuming a total short physical position in the range of 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes as most recently discussed in �"
and
"Relative to a total short physical position of 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes, 6000 to 8000 tonnes from the euro area does not appear unreasonable."

Sorry, if I read Another and Trail Guide, I cannot follow this assumption which seems very unreasonable indeed.

And it is this assumption that has been "proven" in a third way by Turk.

Goldbug 1

(04/22/2003; 19:33:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101728)

Silver bottoms?

Thank you R Powell, you read something into Fur Faces toilet habits that I had missed. Brilliant! He is a six years old black cat of the type used by witches in the past.
I have greater respect for him now. I'll have to try him on the DOW when he gets in from hunting.
I recently returned from Cambodia where the US Dollar is used for all transactions over one dollar. The depreciation of the dollar is hurting the Cambodian Economy and all the other places where it is used. Now Iraq is being flooded with dollars which is a worry.

Goldilox

(04/22/2003; 20:12:07 MDT - Msg ID: 101729)

CapEx buying binge

Clink and BB:

My recently interrupted career was in Enterprise level storage, teaching priciples of design and data management. Over the last year, companies have implemented those principles, increasing their reliance on centralized storage (Storage Area Networks - SANs) and using software developments to better optimize the HW they already own. DataQuest estimates that storage optimization before SANs was less than 20%, due to redunancies and off-line data copies. Recent implementations of SAN techniques (HW and SW) have allowed data centers to get twice the performance and utilization from the same quantities of storage they had pre-9/11.

Unfortunately, this has drastically hurt the storage vendors (EMC, Dell, Sun, HP, etc), shifting a lot of their business over to Veritas, Legato, and other more active SW participants in the market. It hqas also hurt the education market, as they are in an optimization phase of teh learning curve, rather than an accumulation phase.

Goldilox

(04/22/2003; 20:15:41 MDT - Msg ID: 101730)

Iraqi Gold guarded by US tanks

Why does the thought of US tanks guarding the Bank of Bagdad conjure up images of Donald Sutherland, Clint Eastwood and the other "Kelly's Heros" of movie fame. At what point do they turn the turrets on the doors and abscond with the goods?

"OK - Stop with the negative waves, already!"

Cometose

(04/22/2003; 20:18:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101731)

@Rich Powell

Rich , Thanks very much for mentioning Adam Hamilton's work and the VIX ... I went hunting in the archives at Zeal and found a late article (April 18) on a new version of the VIX , the relative VIX which is as you said indicating a severe complacentcy in the Markets at this time.....indicating another downturn.....

I'm going back to see if I can find that chart you mentioned on GOLD

Clink!

(04/22/2003; 20:41:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101732)

@ The Invisible Hand re Turk Article

I had some difficulty in following some of the leaps of deduction made between the 'hard' evidence. He takes figures for the net import/export to Britain and some later ones from the NY Fed. He doesn't really explain where they came from exactly, nor does he explain how NY Fed figures are mixed with UK import/export figures. The total negative is over 7,000 tons, the British part of which he assumes is all BofE gold. But this is import/export data only, so how does he know that it did not belong to other people or countries eg Iran has recently repatriated several hundred tonnes stored in commercial vaults in London, and the new bullion equity from Australia ia also stored in London at the HSBC. He also assumes that all the gold has been leased/sold into the marketplace, but who is to say it hasn't gone to other CBs as part of routine balance of payment adjustments (or whatever CBs do) And then the final leap to say that if this has happened in the UK and the NY Fed, it obviously happened elsewhere to make up the total of 15,000, struck me as, erm..., less than obvious.

Was anyone else left a little bemused ? Maybe I need to go back and reread it.

C!

Black Blade

(04/22/2003; 21:32:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101733)

Market Wrap Up � Hartman

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

The Dollar is the Key

I believe the real answer to where the markets are going is all contained in the U.S. Dollar, and today it got pounded! The U.S. Dollar Index dropped almost a full percentage point today to close at 99.05. Demand for dollars has slowed as analysts have cut back their profit estimates for the balance of this year. Declining investment by Europeans and Japanese in U.S. stocks and corporate bonds would sink the dollar because our country needs $1.5 billion in foreign capital per day to offset its current account deficit. The biggest components of the current account deficit are the international trade deficits and the Federal Budget deficit. We will need a much weaker dollar over the course of many years to get the U.S. Current Account back into positive territory. This is an ongoing process, not a singular event.

The bulls can go have their fun in the stock market for now, but I believe they will all sober-up once the "dollar reality" comes to full light. I don't think it will take much more time since the U.S. Treasury needs more money they don't have. Tomorrow the Treasury will offer $27 billion in two-year notes�remember, that means borrow $27 billion! In addition, the Treasury will announce the details of its quarterly refunding auctions next week. The total package of debt could exceed $60 billion, far exceeding the previous record of $44.5 billion back in 1996. The government's borrowing needs are surging due to domestic programs, terrorism and the war in Iraq. The need for increased spending comes at a time when tax receipts are significantly lower (call that reduced government income). The need for heavier borrowing with lower income will put big downward pressure on the dollar.

Black Blade: That about covers it. The government must continue to beg, borrow and steal to meet the growing account deficit and lure in the chumps. Why any foreigner would continue to want US dollars when the dollar is clearly in a long-term decline is mind boggling. But then why some central banks sold gold reserves at rock bottom prices for foreign currencies that crumbled soon after (did some one say Bank of England?), all on the premise of making money from "interest" is also mind boggling. But then bureaucrats are not exactly the best and brightest of society either, and politicians are generally elected on looks and popularity rather than intelligence. But I digress. The US dollar is grossly overvalued by at least 15% to 20% (maybe more). The dollar becomes even more overvalued as the deficit and debt rises to new daily records with no end in sight.

Black Blade

(04/22/2003; 21:42:18 MDT - Msg ID: 101734)

In this market, small-home prices get bigger and bigger

http://www2.ocregister.com/ocrweb/ocr/article.do?id=35876§ion=BUSINESS⊂section=BUSINESS_COLUMNS&year=2003&month=4&day=22
Snippit:

A fire-engine- red cottage on Olive Hill in Modjeska Canyon says a ton about Orange County's red-hot housing market. It's on the market for $245,000. That's $245,000 for a one-bedroom, one-bath cabin. Forget the bucolic, rustic setting. Put this wooden bungalow in historical context - and I don't mean its 1936 vintage. There was a time not too long ago - September 1999, in fact - in which the same $245,000 the Olive Hill cabin's owner wants for the red cottage bought somebody the median-priced house in the county. You don't need an MBA or a real estate license to understand that this small cabin is a clear example of what the sharp price appreciation has done to a home shopper's buying power.

Black Blade: Now I call that a "real estate bubble". $245K for a shack? When home prices rise faster than incomes it is obvious what comes next. A lot of pain for desperate investors and like all pyramid schemes the last ones standing without a chair when the music stops pays the "ultimate price".

mikal

(04/22/2003; 22:19:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101735)

@BlackBlade, All

Re: msg#101733 Hartman "Tomorrow the government will offer $27 billion in two year notes..." Can it be assumed that there will be enough buyers of these notes?

Goldilox

(04/22/2003; 23:16:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101736)

Will World Bank, IMF botch Iraq?

http://money.cnn.com/2003/04/22/news/war_worldbank/index.htmSnip:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Though the roles of the United States and the United Nations in rebuilding Iraq are still unclear, two other groups, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, are almost certain to take part -- and some critics worry that might be bad news for the future of Iraq's economy.

These critics, who come from various points on the political spectrum, cite a long history of failure by the World Bank and IMF in helping poor and rebuilding countries develop.

Goldilox:

DUH - This CNN reporter, Mark Gangloff, is unlikely to get any press passes to the financial wars any time soon. His "Rah-Rah" credentials are highly suspect.

Goldilox

(04/22/2003; 23:25:12 MDT - Msg ID: 101737)

Calif Real Estate

@BB and all:

SoCAL has come a long way to nearly catch up with NorCAL. I sold a 2-BR 1100 Sq footer in the Santa Cruz Mtns in 1999 for $355,000, and my friend in San Mateo has a 2-BR (not far from Stanford) valued at over $700,000.

Retiring for many in California now means moving somewhere cheaper so the home equity is added to the retirement nest egg.

Now more than ever, retirement investing is truly about capital preservation.

slingshot

(04/22/2003; 23:52:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101738)

******* 342.1******

---does gold seem to be bouncing back?

Bottom of the Ninth Inning. Tie Game. Man on third base. Your pinch hitter has a three ball and two strike count.
He steps out of the batter's box and looks to the third base coach. There is a change of signals and instead of swinging away the batter is to keep it on the ground. The catcher of the Anti-Gold team consults with the pitcher and a fast ball will soon come the batters way. They are going to put him away. The game resumes and the pitcher gets the signal from the catcher. Checking the runner at third the pitcher winds up and throws. The batter already set in his stance in the batters box can see the white sphere hurdle toward him at tremendous speed. To him the ball seems to slow down. Even with all the pressure he knows the outcome to a point. He will connect with the ball. The crowd is silent for those few moments of the balls flight. The game has been a close one with each team having its strong innings. The batter swings and the sound of contact fills the air. The spectators hold their breath and the ball reverses course into the field. The runner at third makes his way toward home and the batter his run to reach first base. The ball is hit hard and scoots along the ground towards the short stop. He can see that this ball might be hard to catch as its irregular BOUNCE can be tricky to capture. If the short stop fails to catch the ball the game is over and the Goldbug team WINS.

slingshot

(04/23/2003; 00:55:33 MDT - Msg ID: 101739)

Goldbug1

Fur Face is the Cat's Meow.

Who says animals are dumb?

Silver has bottomed out? Interesting.

Slingshot-------------------;0)

(04/23/2003; 02:07:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101740)

Another oil for euro article in the Guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,940757,00.html---begin quote---

"The problem is that one nation, effectively unchecked by any other, can, if it chooses, now determine how the rest of the world will live. Eventually, unless we stop it, it will use this power�.The critical question is how we stop it....Military means, of course, are useless...Were it not for a monumental economic distortion, the US economy would, by now, have all but collapsed....Almost 70% of the world's currency reserves - the money that nations use to finance international trade and protect themselves against financial speculators - takes the form of US dollars...The only serious threat to the dollar's international dominance at the moment is the euro....Only one further development would then be required to unseat the dollar as the pre-eminent global currency: nations would need to start trading oil in euros....If this happens, oil importing nations will no longer need dollar reserves to buy oil. The demand for the dollar will fall, and its value is likely to decline. As the dollar slips, central banks will start to move their reserves into safer currencies such as the euro and possibly the yen and the yuan, precipitating further slippage. The US economy, followed rapidly by US power, could then be expected to falter or collapse...One key tipping point, he ( Javad Yarjani, a senior official at Opec ) suggested, could be the adoption of the euro by Europe's two principal oil producers: Norway and the United Kingdom, whose Brent crude is one of the "markers" for international oil prices...To defend our sovereignty - and that of the rest of the world - from the US, we must yield some of our sovereignty to Europe... Those of us who are concerned about American power must abandon our opposition to the euro..."

---end quote---

According to this article, the world has two alternatives. Yield sovereignty to US or to EU. What a choice... Another alternative would be to keep quiet and to see how events develop. Some people may conclude that a vulnerable superpower is a choice of lesser evils.

Note that Opec wishes UK and Norway to price oil in euros, before yielding to EU pressure and begin pricing Arabian oil in euros. After you I insist...

Aristotle

(04/23/2003; 02:20:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101741)

Revisiting the Turk(ey) dinner (i.e., dem bones)

A feather in the cap goes to The Invisible Hand for msg#: 101727 and to Clink! for msg#: 101732.

Nice work, boys, I'm proud knowing ya!

On another topic, a warm welcome to the scene goes out to John the Jute. I hope to to hear more from the likes of you my good man. Just for fun, a chicken-and-egg question comes to mind from your tale of the days of yore. You reminded us about the good ol' days of the Gold Liberties and especially the St. Gaudens coins:

"In 1913, there was no doubt at all as to how much gold you could buy for a dollar. The US mint took small round ingots containing one ounce and one-and-a-half pennyweights of nine-tenths gold alloy, and stamped Augustus Saint Gaudens' fine engraving of Liberty on one side and an eagle -- together with the words "twenty dollars" -- on the other. So twenty dollars could buy you (0.9 x 1.075) ounces -- 0.9675 ounces -- of fine gold at any bank."

My question was going to be this: How can we be so sure that it was a situation of dollars buying the Gold, as you've unequivocally stated, rather than a case of Gold buying the dollars?

You know, you're sharp as a tack -- you're absolutely right in your choice of words. I'd hate for anyone to lose sleep over this if you're not around to explain, so I'll toss this thought out on the table for general consumption.

Because we're talking about 1913, being notably *after* the Lincoln Civil War Greenback period, I believe you are thus all the more easily defended in your statement. We'd moved along the monetary evolution, past what I call the "priming of the pump" stage. Newly acquired lumps of Gold no longer were used to "buy" standard national currency so much as the monetary units were used to "buy" standard amounts of Gold. That is, if that's indeed what the person wanted to do with his very airy (despite being temporarily "fixed-to-Gold") money rather than spend it on bread, deposit it, or invest it in something.

Happily we're now a few more steps further along the evolution where Gold is almost *almost* floating free of all that tangled and grasping banking paper that'll drag down anything of value that isn't careful about it!!

Free Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Belgian

(04/23/2003; 02:39:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101742)

@ COBRA II

FOA : Get as much Gold as "your" (personal) understanding allows to. I never took this as a dogma or any kind of intimidating hammering. On the contrary...found it very intriging.

Sir COBRA, aren't we gathering here to communicate on the evolving of our respective, personal, understandings of Gold ? The recent R.Howe essay (Sextant) is a great example as to how Sir Reg, also evolved in his personal "understanding" of Gold, yesterday...today and probably tomorrow. (idem dito for D.Chapman and Viktor Hugo-GE)

Yes, our (yours/mine) naivete is of a very benign kind.
I never experienced Ari's "Gold, get you some" as a dogma/hammer, when I was a mega-super Gold-ignorant !
Potential candidate Gold-Philes (or any other tangible) are imvho, not the kind of person, who's to become impressed with contentless shouting/screaming from anyone. On the contrary I should say. Goldphiles seem to have a general profile of open minded/honest personalities.

Yes COBRA, I keep working on my Gold-Understanding, and as a matter of fact...keep on accumulating "some" more !
I even take into account that I might have it "completely" WRONG ! And that other solutions will pop up for the problems that we are discussing here.
Each and everyone amongst us remains as free as a bird to assess, possible opportunity costs, whilst staying in Gold and having it completely wrong ! Do you agree that this is a correct approach to the Gold-matters on wich we gather here ? Can you therfore, please take the master out of "master Belgian". I do feel uncomfortable with it.Thanks COBRA.

Onwards...

C.Powell warns that France will pay a price for its attitude ! Fits perfectly into the - with us or against us - doctrine ! And indeed, as already has been remarked here,...WHY exactly (Gaullistic-Vichy) France !? I remain convinced that this is Gold-connected/related...indirectly or probably NOT so indirectly : GOLD WARS (currency struggles)!!! With the ongoing UN-embroglio as perfect facade.

Hyper Focus on everything that stands in the way of the *Project* for an American century !? France's (UN's) "conditonal" (WMD) suspension of "civilian" sanctions on Iraq ! In other words "Power Struggles" ! Is Gold an important element within those power struggles ? I remain convinced it is. Why is there so much confusion amongst CBs on the proportional redistribution/reallocation of their Gold exchange reserves ? To what extend have the many different CBs, forseen what is happening today ? Have they been betting on the right (winning) horse ? And...have some shrewd (intelligent) planners, "arranged" / "fabricated", the circumstances, to a convenient balance for themselves ? Those who forsaw/previewed a coming currency war...an oil war...a Gold war ! There must be reason why different countries (CBs) have such a DIS-PROPORTIONATE amount of Gold-exchange-reserves ! Portugal-UK-Belgium etc...
An aspect (disproportion) that has never been discussed !!!

Topaz

(04/23/2003; 03:39:24 MDT - Msg ID: 101743)

@ mikal.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Ctnxy%2Cfvxy%2Cgcj3.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=7&go.y=11There are also some new "3's" coming down the pike and the nice people @ CBOT have moved the 2,5&10 Yields to accomodate same...such couth!
Don't count on a wholesale sell-off of T's (to other investments) as imo there is nowhere to deploy Capital large enough to take the strain at present...the upcoming debacle should manifest itself as primarily a Dash for $Cash.

Belgian

(04/23/2003; 04:22:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101744)

Some reflexion on "ge" posting.....

A very big part of the globe is watching Big Brother America, storming ahead ! More and more "bets" are going to be taken on America and its (the world's) dollar-reserve and the management of that dollar-reserve !

We all hope and pray that master dollar can keep on managing, containing, manipulating, things... for the good of ALL of us ! Even Sir Allan must get back on his feet after surgery to keep on running this gigantic show.

All together we are betting on a happy or sad end of the present "general" escalation. Oh boy, do we long for those happy days, where everything was so predictable and conveniently cyclic within a linear up line. Yeah, those were the days...

Yes, I do reread CPM's archives, again and again...because a lot what has been said here, is gaining more and more * meaning *, with the events that are taking place in the decorum. A drama unfolding and anticipated into the USAGOLD archive writings/discussions.

Wave after wave of "intervention" and follow up on intervention is a dominant modus operandi of the world's forces that want to avoid a desastrous global DEBT debacle.
Yes, extremely hard to believe/accept such a doom-gloom thesis when stockprices can be managed to climb 60% or 100% in no time ! Belgian (and all other) doomer is a nut...a loser...a nitwit...a village clown !? The massive interventions of al kinds have the benign effect of frustrating all those who dare/try to see things as they are. Things as confetti overproduction and currency debasement plus many other hysterias/manias.

Billions of shares and Trillions of confetti-paper move double digit percentages in pricing in extremely short time-laps! Only Goldprices, currency exchange rates, oil are there to be contained, compressed, frozen, within extremely narrow pr�-manufactured ranges. An anomaly that is *the* underlying fundamental for this gigantic financial show.
This phenomenon is evidence to me that the real underlying situation is deeply/hoplessly rotten. The creation of a financial Coney Island (casino) is a unique masterpiece.
They even "institutionalized" it and make it seem as if it will remain for ever. The frozen bubbles that will rot instantly when the temperature should rise ! Central banks stand ready if...

How will this so called global "democratization" turn out without the masses, to be democratized, gaining better/improved living conditions ? In other words...will this Big democratization-Project go hand in hand with re-distribution or growth for ALL ? Or is this New Growth Project an alibi to cover up our devastating, unbearing lightness of our growing massive DEBTS !?
How optimistic can one remain when Hard / Hardening Talks are witnessed daily ? For how long do we have to keep "reality" deeply frozen awaiting better times ?

It is because our chances for recovery are dimishing, day by day, that I seek refuge into the Gold tangible. None of the intervention hokus pokusses resort any optimistic effect on me. On the contrary, I'm getting increasingly worried about all sorts of brinkmanship.

Pan

(04/23/2003; 07:53:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101745)

++ Banco de Portugal has sold another 45 tons of Gold in march and april++

http://www.vwd.de/vwd/news.htm?id=20487594&navi=news&sektion=marktberichte&r=0&awert=Banco de Portugal ver�u�ert im M�rz und April 45 t Gold

Lissabon (vwd) - Der Banco de Portugal hat im M�rz und April rund 45 t Gold aus seinen Reserven ver�u�ert. Wie die Zentralbank am Mittwoch mitteilte, erfolgte der Verkauf im Rahmen des internationalen Ankommens von September 1999. Der Banco de Portugal verf�gt traditionell �ber hohe Goldbest�nde, die sich nach den j�ngsten Ver�u�erungen noch auf rund 550 t belaufen d�rften.

vwd/DJ/23.4.2003/hab

23.04.2003, 14:24

mikal

(04/23/2003; 08:42:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101746)

MONEY AND INVESTING- Alternative news shows the way to prosperity

http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.aspGeneral Editorial April 22, 2003
Market Summary
Icky day for the dollar
Excerpt: "In markets, observations must be relative to all other factors. Relative to the strong equity market ( 150 + today on the DOW) the dollar really stank. Even a bad tick (incorrectly reported high at 11:29) that could have easily misguided people, nothing really helped the dollar.
My surprise was that the strong effort I expected from the Exchange Stabilization Fund never materialized to keep the dollar at or above .9920. I have marked the two minute period in which the "Boys in Blue" stepped in to support the falling US dollar but no real rally occurred. Today made a poor statement for the common share of the USA Inc., the US dollar."
April 22, 2003
The Malaysian Gold Dinar
Only a Few Months Away
Excerpts: "Although it's fashionable among US and continental establishment intelligentsia and their web sites to dismiss this event, they are sadly mistaken.The economic weapons of Islam are serious and potent in the environment of the weak US dollar and debtor position of the US and US consumers.....
There is no question that this event is in fact gold's remonetization. It is the first step towards a unified Islamic currency. The Malaysian Gold Dinar is a key part of the emergence of another potential financial hegemony, the quietly rising Sino/Islamic economic union. This is an economic union in which Mr. Putin has applied for membership.
I expect China to issue a gold settlement system in the form of a Gold Yuan for utilization among its Asian trading partners..."

ISLAMIC "GOLD" DINAR WILL MINIMIZE DEPENDENCY ON US DOLLAR
Malaysian Times - Business- April 21, 2003
Malaysia will start using the Islamic gold dinar starting mid 2003 in its foreign trade section with some countries replacing the U.S. dollar in a first step move toward unifying the currency used in commercial dealings between Islamic countries.
The success of this idea, according to several western newspapers, may lead to minimizing the U.S. dollar hegemony as an intermediate tool in commercial dealings in the world.
The idea was adopted by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad who conducted bilateral talks during the year 2002 with several Islamic countries, including Bahrain, Libya, Morocco and Iran, to convince them of using the Islamic dinar as a way of payment in their commercial dealings with Malaysia.
This move is considered from one side a way to recall a currency related to the history of Muslims and their monetary heritage since the time of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him), and from the other side, the ability to find the Islamic alternative to the dollar at a time the calls to boycott all what is labelled as American starting from goods to currency, are intensified.
The idea of the Islamic gold dinar belongs to Professor Omar Ibrahim Fadillo, founder of the Morabeteen International Organization founded in 1983 in South Africa where it is widely known as well as in Europe.
The organization believes that the unity of the Islamic world can not be achieved except through the unification on the economic level. It also calls for the establishment of a united Islamic market using one currency which is the gold Islamic dinar used by the Morabeteen members, hoping it will replace the U.S. dollar.
"The idea of the Islamic gold dinar aims at minimizing the hegemony of the U.S. dollar and to use the gold once again as an international currency because the value of the paper currencies is in continuous fluctuation unlike the stable gold currency which preserve its value through the value
of the metal itself.
The system is built on the idea that the Islamic governments keep the gold in a central bank and use it in settling their commercial dealings instead of depending on foreign fund markets and foreign financial corporations. The first Islamic gold dinar, equivalent to 4.25 grams of 22-karat gold, was issued in 1992 on a very limited scale between the member of the Morabeteen.
Several countries around the world are currently dealing directly with 100,000 Islamic gold dinars and 250,000 silver dirhams issued by the company, hoping that one day it will replace the U.S. dollar in the dealings of the 1.3 billion citizens of the Islamic countries.
"Consequently, the gold dinar will be the ideal currency to facilitate and increase international trade and minimizing speculation in paper currency that led to the Asian currency crisis in 1997," Dr. Muhammad Sheriff Bashir said.
The existence of a fund unity between the countries of the Muslim world will increase the amount of trade between them and will help in increasing the economic development if the conditions for the success of the gold dinar were provided, he added.

mikal

(04/23/2003; 09:21:03 MDT - Msg ID: 101747)

Re: Gold "remonetization"

You may have concluded that "remonetization" of gold in Asia cannot really be accomplished in today's complex economic, social and geopolitical environment. I agree, but this does not look likely to evolve beyond the first, limited and "experimental" stages. Here it could compliment paper and digital forms and current barter trade without restricting commerce or restraining gold markets. The euro would be complimented and perhaps augmented.
Obviously increasing energy and debt costs impose unexpected economic restrictions as they surface with other scandals. Then with the cost of SARS, civil strife and wars in worldwide stagflation and imminent financial system collapse and depression, physical gold as the sole money would not work even in the smallest countries. After years of rehabilitation, these economies, small and large would find themselves in a changed but still modern world. Needing innovative and flexible money. This can only be met with a diversity of choices, each tailored to intricately fit a crucial role in lives and society.
The use of the Dinar is welcome news.

mikal

(04/23/2003; 09:27:23 MDT - Msg ID: 101748)

****$351*****

@Gandalf
Price guess to accompany "Gold remonetization" post below.

Gandalf the White

(04/23/2003; 10:00:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101749)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ---- UPDATE ---- POG CONTEST !

TownCrier

(04/23/2003; 11:50:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101750)

Have you seen MK's "QuickNotes" for today?

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlYou'll get so much news so fast it'll make your head swim in a sea of abundant knowledge. MK does the work each day reading multiple papers so for you it is like having a personal briefer to keep you informed and gain back some time in your day.

Click the url above, and you'll feel younger already.

R.

Gandalf the White

(04/23/2003; 12:48:54 MDT - Msg ID: 101751)

POG CONTEST --- with "KING of the HILL" update ! <;-)

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!

COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
---

FYI

PREVIOUS Days GC3M Settlement prices were:
4/21/03 HIGH = $334.5 low = $327.6 Settle = $333.9 Change +$6.3 OI 4/18/03 = 109,944 contracts.
4/22/03 HIGH = $336.8 low = $332.4 Settle = $334.8 Change +$0.9 OI 4/21/03 = 109,484 contracts.
4/23/03 HIGH = $335.6 low = $331.5 Settle = $331.9 Change -$2.9 OI 4/22/03 = 106,807

AND Sir Topaz is now the "King of the Hill "
---

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement ! (WITH prizes for each of the two Portions!)

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) JUNE 2003 Gold Contract (GC3M) on the date of MONDAY, the 28th of April, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Sunday, April 27th, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the ANSWERS to the QUESTIONS posed by SIR MK:

"Why, after taking a verbal beating from the financial press during �Gulf War II� -- most notably the day-time television business chats -- does gold seem to be bouncing back?"

or, put another way:

"Does Maria Baritromo really have a secret gold stash tucked away in downtown New York, or is that just a nasty rumor being circulated on the gold internet?"

(Keep it clean, my fellow Goldmeisters.)

THE PRIZES !! (YES, I said PRIZES !)

To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the JUNE �03 (GC3M) SETTLEMENT price on Monday, April 28th, 2003 -----

The WINNING prize will be a German 20 Mark Wilhelm I Goldpiece (contains 0.2304 oz. of Gold) to the overall winner. ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)

Also, for the "best short essay" ANSWER, which SHOULD be included with the price guess, the WINNER shall receive ANOTHER GOLDEN German "Wilhelm I" 20 Mark Goldpiece. (It like the Wiz sometimes feels, is over 100 years old !)

(YES, Sir Lother of the Hill People, IT IS possible to win BOTH of the GOLDEN prizes !) <;-)
===
LET the POG CONTEST CONTINUE !!

<;-)

TownCrier

(04/23/2003; 13:02:02 MDT - Msg ID: 101752)

Banking with a double-edged sword

WGC's Rhonna O'Connell reported the following today.
---
"The Indian Press is reporting that ICICI Bank, which suffered a short-term loss of confidence in the early part of last week, asked for cash payments against its regular gold sales rather than drafts or cheques in order to tide it over. The bullion was sold locally to bullion traders and jewellers at a time of extremely strong demand (height of the Indian wedding season) and did not disrupt the market.

"The bank is reported to be a regular seller of 500-600kg of gold daily; this level was apparently doubled on April 16th following three days of national holidays and the metal was delivered immediately against cash, rather than waiting for cheques or drafts to clear. The amount sold was approximately Rs 60 crore, (or approximately US$13M, equivalent to approximately 1.2 tonnes at today's rates) as compared with the Rs 2,000 crore facility that the bank is said to have arranged with the Reserve Bank of India."
---

Randy's note: While the details are different, this brings to mind the trouble that JMB brought upon itself and its peers two decades ago in the interplay of bullion banking and commercial banking. Missteps on one half can bring down the other. There were possibly a number of pants filled with bricks over this, again. I wonder whether we will we see wisdom finally prevail as an outcome of this latest reality check, or will we instead get just another patch-job in the form of a stronger push toward formation of a southern sister IMBA -- India Bullion Market Association?

Call Centennial for a personal diversification into gold. At the same time you are casting your vote with clear direction about the above-referenced issue and placing the problem at the doorstep of its rightful owners.

R.

cockerel1

(04/23/2003; 13:23:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101753)

My estimate is *******$338.50********

The media ridicule and laugh, they do not understand
That Gold is a Wondrous Metal revered in every land
To them the almighty dollar, will be KING for ever more,
The yellow relic is destined to be "booted" out the door.

But wait for just a minute, is that a rally we all can see?
How can that useless metal mean anything to you and me?
"In recent times, my foolish friends, this "glow" has suffered pain,
But finally, the time has come, for it to shine again."

Go get you some, you'll not regret,
For it has not reached potential yet,
The "green" you treasure is doomed to fall,
But GOLD will always be loved by all."

And so the odyssey has begun, and the war is almost over,
The pessimists are crying "wolf" as they quickly head for cover,
No more will our relic be shoved off to the side,
Victory is ours, my friends and you all helped to turn the tide.

pilgrims_gold

(04/23/2003; 13:44:23 MDT - Msg ID: 101754)

******** $368.10 ********

I don't know who this person is, is she for or against gold
ownership? Does she believe in fiat and banks or does she believe in physical? Then I realized, it doesn't matter which side shes on, or which side I'm on, or which side your on? does it? Doesn't matter at all, until its too late!
Then it matters! Got Physical?

pilgrims_gold

(04/23/2003; 13:47:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101755)

Oh no! that was suppose to be $338.10

Now I got to hope for a world collapse!

steady

(04/23/2003; 14:14:07 MDT - Msg ID: 101756)

dinar /dirham

notice in the article about the dinar that nothing was made of the dirham nothing zip zilch. darn it!

TownCrier

(04/23/2003; 14:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101757)

Mixed signals, place your bets

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030423/economy_treasury_dollar_1.htmlHEADLINE: US Treasury -- Only Snow has authority to speak on dlr

WASHINGTON, April 23 (Reuters) - A U.S. Treasury spokesman, responding to questions about a German magazine story quoting a U.S. diplomat saying the Bush administration favors a weaker dollar, said only the Treasury Secretary has the authority to talk about dollar currency policy.

...The Der Spiegel magazine said an unnamed diplomat from Washington told European counterparts in Brussels it was part of U.S. foreign policy to have a weaker dollar.

------(see url)------

As a nation, or even a person for that matter, you can try to hang your hat (and wealth) on the words of foreign men in revolving-door positions of other national governments, or you skip all the intrigue and guesswork by selecting the use of gold as your primary reserve asset.

Call Centennial for a natural act of sovereignty.

R.

J-Bullion

(04/23/2003; 14:41:21 MDT - Msg ID: 101758)

*****$332.70*****

Gold is bouncing back after Gulf War II because now we have really enraged the world. Since the U.S. has a near monopoly on military spending and cruise missles, they only thing that the rest of the world can fire back with is dollar bombs. Taking the dollar down will lead to gold's ascent.

Marie B. does have a stash of gold amassed downtown. She is waiting to turn it into a golden bikini, much like in Return of the Jedi. After society loses interest in stocks, they need to keep viewers turned into CNBC.....ratings matter.

mikal

(04/23/2003; 14:45:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101759)

@steady

Re: "...nothing was made of silver." Its just another contrarian indicator among a STEADY stream of spin: An editor of a paper like the Malaysian Times cannot stick his neck out too far! That is, if he wishes to maintian his credibility with his readership, publisher, shareholders and advertisers. For it is enough that gold itself, the bad boy, the prodigal son, has resumed a budding apprenticeship beneath the heavyweights of the financial glamour circuit. Would you have the little silver step sister debut before her time?

Black Blade

(04/23/2003; 14:49:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101760)

Depth of Debt

http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/local_business/article/0,1651,TCP_1012_1904269,00.html
Snippit:

Many Treasure Coast residents and millions across the country are struggling to keep financially afloat. As the already-fragile economy struggles to overcome a three-year stock market nosedive, millions of layoffs, corporate scandals and waning consumer confidence, an alarming trend has emerged from the go-go 1990s when consumers binged on a smorgasbord of easy credit. Statistics and interviews with at least a dozen leading economic experts indicate personal and business bankruptcies, mortgage foreclosures, consumer loan defaults and auto repossessions are all on the rise or showing signs of increasing, which is fueling a tide of economic uncertainty across Florida, along the Treasure Coast and nationwide. "The bubble was going to burst sometime," said Chris McCarty, survey director at the University of Florida's Center of Survey Research for Consumer Confidence. "With credit cards lowering their standards ... lower interest rates on homes and cars... and people refinancing their homes for 125 percent of what they are worth, I could see this coming a mile away. "We were at the top of our game in 1998 and 1999, things were bound to crash," he added.

And apparently there's no swift recovery on the horizon. Along with the rise in bankruptcies, the number of foreclosures also are on the upswing. Although no organization tracks foreclosures locally, home-loan defaults nationally reached a record in 2002. Experts say the nation's mounting debt is reaching critical stages, because consumers have overextended themselves financially with second mortgages and refinancings. In addition, they say, creditors offering unsecured loans to high-risk consumers are contributing to the dire situation. Some observers think aggressive marketing schemes and the lure of low-interest or no-interest big-ticket purchases such as automobiles, boats and furniture means consumers are digging themselves into an even deeper debt hole.

"The 1990s were driven by consumption and a great deal of that came from borrowed money -- almost half a trillion of that was borrowed money," said William Fruth, economist and president of Policom Corp., a Jupiter-based economic research consulting firm. "Now we have realized we have overextended ourselves." "This is just a sign of the times. It just goes to show how much debt this country is in," he said. The economist explains that the ripple effects of a sour economy are evident just about everywhere.

Black Blade: As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months� expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. It is going to get much worse before it gets any better. You won't hear about this kind of news on CNBC or other stock infomercial media.

Black Blade

(04/23/2003; 14:59:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101761)

Where has foreign money gone?

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/134681285_foreigninvest23.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK � This seems to be a battle the U.S. hasn't yet won: getting the world to invest here again. Foreigners continue to show disinterest in U.S. assets such as stocks and bonds, with volatile financial markets and continued economic weakness keeping them away. The problem is we need their money. The United States has become so reliant on foreign investment and borrowing that without those dollars it is going to be difficult to propel growth. When foreigners aren't making investments here, they don't need to convert their money into U.S. dollars, so that drives the greenback down.

The shortfall between what the United States buys, sells and invests in abroad vs. what is coming into this country is reflected in the current-account deficit. Last year, that deficit hit an all-time high of $503.4 billion and was a record 5.2 percent of total U.S. gross domestic product. Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, pointed out in a recent report that it takes more than $2 billion a day in foreign financing to cover that shortfall, and that is not a "stable situation."

Black Blade: Even though we are seeing a minor bear market rally on Wall Street, the outlook is quite grim. The Treasury will have a tough time getting foreign investors to take on more dogs like US debt, especially as the economy weakens. It's the old "fool me once shame on you � fool me twice shame on me". The current account deficit and budget crisis should hit new record levels again this year. Not a pretty picture but nothing can stop it now. Price dips on precious metals are gifts to those who take advantage.

Black Blade

(04/23/2003; 15:05:23 MDT - Msg ID: 101762)

Hot housing market might be cooling

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2003-04-23-housing-cooling_x.htm
Snippit:

War, weather and a weak economy have taken a toll on the nation's housing market. "The boom is over," says Celia Chen, housing economist at Economy.com. Other analysts stop short of that, ascribing recent slowness in the market to fleeting factors, including a brutal winter for much of the country, and a temporary national paralysis from the war in Iraq. Key national indicators of March sales won't be issued until Friday, but plenty of preliminary evidence suggests the soaring housing market has hit a rough patch.

Black Blade: How long can housing prices rise much faster than incomes without the "real estate bubble" going bust? Some argue that the "bond bubble" will collapse first. Who knows, but it could be a race between the bubbles toward collapse as the Lemmings run to and fro looking for some safe haven from the ravages of the crumbling economy. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade

(04/23/2003; 15:16:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101763)

Single-family home permits at 7-year low

http://www2.ocregister.com/ocrweb/ocr/article.do?id=35952§ion=BUSINESS⊂section=OC_REGION&year=2003&month=4&day=23
Builders appear to be gravitating toward apartments and condos.

Snippit:

For the first time in three years, local housing builders in the first quarter filed more construction permits for multifamily projects than for single-family homes, data released Tuesday shows. Local builders filed 1,212 permits for traditional homes and 1,776 permits for multifamily units, according to the Construction Industry Research Board based in Burbank. Some good news for housing affordability may be found in that trend. Builders were not skimpy with multifamily building, filing the most permits in seven years. Most of the multifamily permits are apartments, according to the construction board.

Black Blade: Got to have some place to put all those displaced "former" homeowners when the "bubble" pops. Hey, maybe we can bring back workhouses for the kiddies, debtors prisons for the incompetent, and potters fields for those who break under the stress of it all. So much for the "American Dream" of a three bedroom house with white picket fence, two car garage, 2.5 kids, a dog and cat, and a chicken in every pot. Hmmm�

TownCrier

(04/23/2003; 15:37:33 MDT - Msg ID: 101764)

After a long fruitful phone chat with MK about all things golden...

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/current.htmlI came away with too much to share through the written word. This much, however, I can share in a brief space of words. The available cache of Argentino coins is nearly depleted. I've got mine secured. Have you got yours? See the url above for the latest info on these Buyers' Group specials.

R.

CoBra(too)

(04/23/2003; 15:38:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101765)

... Gold and smaller Matters ...

Sir Belgian, and Ari if you feel that my post was either too harsh or alternately totally crap - I apologize.

Though I also feel that denigrating honest research of proven Gold friends as James Turk, Reg Howe, Venoroso, GATA and lastly Mike Bolser, whom I miss posting here for a while now as his alter ego - doesn't help the case either.

BTW - the latter has MB just posted a great essay at the cafe: "Repurchase Agreements and the DOW" -
Here are his final remarks:
" So it seems that the accelerated monetary debasement prescription apparently in progress at today's Federal Reserve runs afoul of history and the principles of a free market. Unfortunately, a runaway world currency disaster can only be avoided by the continued inappropriate sale of a dwindling western central bank resource�gold. This is the dark legacy of misguided interventional planners who drifted from the Constitution's stipulation for sound money. Judging by the rocketing Fed repurchase agreements, falling M3 growth rates, a vulnerable DOW and a falling Major Currency Dollar Index, the Federal Reserve may finally appreciate that it is nearly out of viable paper options."

While we all seem to grasp the overruling problems caused by the hegemonial system, we don't really care and just feel blase� about the recent victims of this oppressive US Dollar pricing fraud. Even if it condemmned its own producers of food, metals and reality - why worry about other countries meeting a similar fate. We're bailing them out, anyway by "our" IMF, WB, and now even BIS and they should be grateful for the privilege. They sure are - and so is IRAQ and its neighbours - a job well done - what's next - leave rebuilding to the UN? NO WAY - ME Freedom R'US and its OIL will be priced in our confetti - not in anyone else's! For the time being...

I rest my case - just in case I've ever had one.

CU cb2

PS: Rich - thanks for your thoughts - will try to comply!

TownCrier

(04/23/2003; 16:09:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101766)

Prodi's metaphor -- more than meets the eye?

When the Financial Times quoted European Commission president Romano Prodi yesterday from his weekend interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, I took special note of his use of an economic metaphor in explaining that Europe needs to develop a "true political personality" with a common foreign and defense policy.

He said, "We cannot simply hand Europe responsibility for the treasury while leaving the portfolio for security with America."

Make of that what you will, though, somewhere in the back of your mind doesn't it also whisper of the wisdom of repatriating ones own gold from distant shores?

Call Centennial and get in on a good thing at a good price.

R.

R Powell

(04/23/2003; 16:13:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101767)

CoBra(too)

You just commented on some of my remarks from yesterday.....

"PS: Rich - thanks for your thoughts - will try to comply!"

I was intentionally trying to be vague but I do need to clarify that my remarks were not directed AT you but rather to you in agreement with some of your earlier comments.
However, if everyone was in the choir, whom would we sing to? Money may make the world go around but differences of opinion keep it changing hands.

I see from Gandalf's contest POG update that open interest in gold was down today. This is not a good omen. Silver? Must be more of that technical trading trend following stuff or...did I miss some silver news item?
Peace Rich

steady

(04/23/2003; 16:20:45 MDT - Msg ID: 101768)

siver debuts after the golden concert?

mikal nope i wouldnt want silver to debut before her time. i get it now, as someone on the board posted oil/ dollars, euros /and for the gand finally gold.

silver will be the encore , the bravo. just like at a concert one more please! as the world wide audience cheers for the return of honest money. gold and silver get u sum.

Gandalf the White

(04/23/2003; 16:21:29 MDT - Msg ID: 101769)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAA --- POG CONTEST UPDATE !!!!!!

LISTING of Entries as of WEDNESDAY, 4/23/03, 16:10 Denver Time !
===

**** $367.8 **** Moegold (04/22/03; 11:12:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 101695)

**** $354.4 **** Goldbug 1 (04/21/03; 22:20:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 101679)

**** $353.9 **** Eleanor of Aquitaine (04/22/03; 12:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101701)

**** $351.3 **** goldquest (04/21/03; 20:16:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 101670)

**** $351.0 **** mikal (4/23/03; 09:27:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101748)

**** $350.0 **** Zhisheng (04/22/03; 13:36:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 101709)

**** $347.5 **** VanRip (04/22/03; 17:31:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 101721)

**** $345.0 **** Clink! (04/22/03; 06:07:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 101690)

**** $343.3 **** Nakajima (04/22/03; 08:17:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101692)

**** $342.1 **** slingshot (04/22/03; 23:52:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 101738)

**** $340.3 **** makcumka (04/21/03; 20:42:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101673)

**** $338.5 **** cockerel1 (4/23/03; 13:23:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 101753)

**** $338.1 **** pilgrims_gold (4/23/03; 13:44:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101754)

**** $332.7 **** J-Bullion (4/23/03; 14:41:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101758)

**** $326.5 **** Topaz (04/22/03; 04:31:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 101689)

===
<;-)

steady

(04/23/2003; 16:27:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101770)

more layoffs.

amd lays off 10% of austin work force. 238 employees of amd will be layed off. dang!

FreeWillie

(04/23/2003; 16:28:59 MDT - Msg ID: 101771)

Suggestions, anyone?

Bear with me for a second. Say that George has an epiphany and realizes he needs to save the US economy from the euro/gold attack.

What (other than congressional stupidity, and maybe fear of a bullet in the head) would keep him from getting Congress to ditch 31 USC 5117(b) and announce that the Treasury will value its gold reserves annually at market prices?

Yeah, I know, I know: gold would explode, bullion banks would go under dragging much of the US (and world) financial structure with them, and all those international trade and reserve dollars could not possibly be supported by what little gold is left in Fort Knox that actually still belongs to the US. So the markets would realize what a paper tiger the US gold stash really is and the dollar would drop like a rock.

But would it drop as far as it will if the US leaves the Freegold system all to the Europeans to take advantage of?

Or would the rising gold price resulting from the announcement of such a policy support the dollar more than anything else could, giving it at least a fighting chance to compete with the much newer (and therefore less over-printed) and more gold-supported euro on a much more even playing field?

The mostly Muslim OPEC countries already have a huge incentive to stick it to the "Great Satan" by going euro. If at least their confidence level in the dollar vs the euro can be restored (they obviously understand gold much better than most Americans), they might decide to "stick with the devil they know."

In the process, the US could flush out some big-time elitist banksters and maybe even use the brouhaha to kick the Fed out of the beltway. (Yeah, I know, those banksters and their buddies in top industry are who got George to where he is, but when the alternative is "no more US of A" (because an economic breakdown would destroy US military supremacy, and maybe even its ability to defend itself), might George not consider such a move?

I know I am assuming a lot of qualities here that George may not have, but then again - who knows?

The question is one of "in principle". How do you guys see this scenario playing out any worse than a total US collapse resulting from total dollar-flight?

My concern should be obvious: no more US, no more restraint on China or Russia to play out THEIR goals for world domination (and don't believe for a second they don't have any of those). What will "the world" complain of then? Whom will they complain to? The UN???

steady

(04/23/2003; 17:07:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101772)

****** $345.6 ******

http://www.goldcoffee.com/gold doesnt have a political agenda. unlike the federal reserve note does.
people world wide understand gold. the masses just havent realized there demand for gold yet, and the world wide movement that is gaining in every tavern, inn, cottage or watering hole. that gold is and has been whispered in the back alleys and passed along from drug cartel to drug carel that golds remonitization the end of the dollar.
( one term that will be is being relegated to the histoy books is.... the all mighty dollar. You wont find that in print unless its in this context ---- the once all mighty dollar, -- its days are over, people dont realize it yet, but it is startiing to get back into peoples consciouness cause the powers that be want it to. have you noticed the number of products that are using gold in there advertizing. gold tostitos, gold pizza, gold eveready batteries, gold crackers gold coffe,{see link box} gold gritz, i have more as, ive been keeping track of this interesting trend for the past two years. now dont forget silver also undergoing the same phenominon silver baccardi but thats another story [an encore :+)] but that movement has gold moving into peoples consciouness as they are subliminally expossed to gold daily, rember my two songs i put up on the day gold broke 330 the first time? both with that lil au at the end of them . did u catch it before i told u about it? thats perception! people are starting to percieve that something is amiss in the financial world. so gold isnt really buncing back rather it is demonstrating its resilancy to weather any economic condition as a store of value both as property,( love ya aristotle) and as honest money>

CoBra(too)

(04/23/2003; 17:26:18 MDT - Msg ID: 101773)

The Turk(ey)s et al don't really need me -

For their defense - they do a better job by themselves...
The following is an excerpt from tonight's Midas (Bill Murphy) of course -

"The following email to James Turk is the kind that makes me bristle.

Dear Mr. Turk,

I have read with interest your recent article posted on Kitco and wish to compliment your work in detailing the net flows of gold from the US and the UK. This is a good piece of work and certainly helps to discredit the estimates of Goldfields and some others who prefer the 5000 tonne number.

On the other hand, your overall conclusions suffer the same weakness that Howe and Veneroso's work does, in that at some point in the presentation, when you run out of quantitative data you ask your reader to join you in filling in the required sum to meet the conclusion of the study; in this case you try to assure us that more than doubling your data results to reach the 15,000 tonne level is not a leap of faith. Well, it is.

The size of your reading audience would grow immensely if your primary energy was to illuminate truth through rigorous analysis, just as you have attempted in the current work, instead of pimping the conspiracy theory at the expense of interpretational liberties taken from the data presented.

To be sure, a conspiracy approach to the mobilization of central bank reserves has lots of sensationalistic spin power that doubtless sells copy, but whatever the motives behind the gold outflow, its very existence and the quantity involved is a very significant story and cries out for objective analysis, particularly from the mainstream gold trading fraternity who have long grown tired of the "lunatic fringe' who forever hype the gold market to the tune of the Music Man and "Trouble in River City!"

We are in desparate need of objectivity from men like you. But to date, none of your associates seem to understand that conclusions worthy of intellectual discussion follow FROM the data analysis instead of PRECEEDING it. Until you guys can present "thesis worthy" work, Howe's stuff is going to continually get thrown out of court.

There are many of us who are cheering for you in hopes of getting substance, not flash. Your current work here is a good start, but please don't drop the ball on the 50 yard line and then ask us to imagine a touchdown simply because the intent was there to score.

Respectfully,
D H

James Turk's response to DH:

Hi David

Thanks for your email. I can't and won't speak for Reg Howe or Frank Veneroso, but I understand your point of view about my objectivity.

I try to make my analyses objective, within the constraints given, namely, the nature of the subject and the limited information available. Is there a conspiracy to keep the price of gold constrained? Cumulatively the evidence suggests that there is. Otherwise, why would central banks, as just one of many examples, report gold and gold receivables as one line item on their balance sheet if they didn't have something to hide?

Central bankers have a strong incentive to maintain the present fiat money system where bankers can create money out of thin air. In a recent newsletter I wrote:

"The federal government's debt increased $475.4 billion over the past twelve months. Of this amount, the Federal Reserve purchased $68.4 billion of debt instruments, and $218.1 billion was purchased by commercial banks. So together, these financial agents who create dollars monetized $286.5 billion, or 60% of the increase in the federal debt. In other words, 60% of this debt was used to create new dollars �out of thin air�.
There was no work undertaken to create these new dollars. They did not arise from one's labor. There was as a result no new wealth created.
These dollars were not loaned by someone who had saved them. So existing wealth wasn't being transferred.
These dollars were created �out of thin air�, transferred to the federal government, and then spent."

That kind of unique privilege is a powerful incentive to banks and governments to maintain their unconstitutional money cartel (see http://www.fgmr.com/pieces8.htm), and they will do - working hand-in-hand - whatever they have to do to maintain that power. Given that gold is the world's only free-market money, gold represents a threat to the hollow promises of government sponsored money. Thus, it is not hard to understand why governments are intervening in the gold market. And their footprints are all over the place.

I liked your analogy about the football on the 50-yard line. But the way I view it is that central banks turned the TV off when the runner got there, and the ball is still moving toward that touchdown. We are making progress. Considering that we - Reg, Frank, GATA, Bill Murphy and all the others who are contributing - picked up the ball deep in the end zone, I am pleased that we keep getting the TV turned on every few yards so that everybody can see the state of play progressing, even if central banks keep turning the TV back off. Regardless what central banks do, that football is headed for a touchdown.

When I write my newsletters I put into them 35-years of business experience, nearly 25 years of which is directly involved with gold. Thus, I know from my first-hand experience about the importance of Zurich as the center for trading physical metal. In the absence of hard data from Swiss customs or other possible sources, I tied to convey that importance in my report in a couple of ways - using the quote from the 1993 IMF report as well as the US gold flows from the USGS report. There were other things I could have added but didn't - for example, I know from the UK Customs that most of the UK gold did not go to the EU (where the big gold holding central banks are), so it was logical to assume that it went to Switzerland. So at the end of the day, I stick by my statement that: ", it does not take a leap of blind faith to recognize that at least an equal amount would have been mobilized from Switzerland and the other centers". But I understand that not everybody may agree with my view. However, if some diligent sole manages to dig up some Swiss customs data, maybe the TV will get turned back on again when the ball is crossing the 40-yard line, which I guess is the main point.

The truth is emerging, slowly but surely in bits and pieces. Look at what has been accomplished over the past few years. Now carry that progress forward in the weeks and months ahead. The end-zone is probably much easier to reach than we think - GATA is breaking free of tacklers and picking up speed.

Regards
James

Now, for my two cents:

DH must be another mainstream apologist groupie who just doesn't get it and wouldn't recognize the truth no matter what the GATA camp comes up with. He is totally ignorant that it IS the GATA camp that keeps coming up with the evidence/supporting documentation about what is really going on in the gold market, not the establishment gold world people. Howe, Veneroso, and Turk have independently come up with gold loan/swap numbers of 15,000 to 16,000 tonnes and have presented their back up work as to how they came up with their guesstimates. What does the World Gold Council and GFMS do? They throw out a number of around 5,000 tonnes with NO detailed explanation of how that breaks down.

DH wanted a more detailed effort by James. Yet, as James says, it is the IMF that requests the central banks to obfuscate the truth by asking them to count gold loans/swaps as official reserves. GATA is asking for transparency. IMF urges lying. GATA is the one who found out what the IMF is up to. Has anyone in the establishment gold world followed up our hard evidence of serious reporting discrepancies. OF COURSE NOT!

It is James Turk who found the ENORMOUS 2700 tonne flow of gold out of the IMF in 1997, a flow that trashed the price of gold. Did GFMS deal with that amount of flow in 1997? Heck no. You won't find this huge mobilization discussed by the gold world establishment types.

Perhaps the most inane comment from DH is his use of the conspiracy word again, as if GATA used it merely to sensationalize our findings. What pedantic garbage! As GATA's attorney, Merrill Davidoff, told us over four years ago, "anti-trust, price manipulation cases are a dime a dozen." Anti-trust cases and price manipulations are conspiracies. Why should gold be any different?

Finally, James is right. We are heading for the end zone. After four years work of outstanding effort by MANY people, we have found nothing to contradict our initial understanding of more than four years ago that the gold price has been manipulated by various entities. We have challenged the gold establishment to debate our findings and they refuse to meet that challenge. DH ought to do some serious homework before taking the time to deal with an issue in which he possesses so little knowledge.
unquote -
And as I've rested my case for the brighter view of the same shiny golden promise - a promise long gone from the vaults of the western CB's - I do find this case more compelling than the simple factoid of the necessity of getting u some!

Sounds like robbery ... cb2

21mabry

(04/23/2003; 17:54:30 MDT - Msg ID: 101774)

Jon Law

An excellent book about Jon Law and the missisippi bubble is called millionare,the later stage of the book has Jon Law caught at the border fleeing france with large supply of gold.I do not know if this was true,as I have also read Law left france penniless as everything he had was invested in his paper and french land.

21mabry

(04/23/2003; 18:49:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101775)

Barrons

Latest Barrons has an article about how commodity prices are rising around the world,also the cover page has a warning that certain tech stocks may be over priced.Duh this information about tech stocks is 3 years to late.This issue is called bubble part 2.

Aristotle

(04/23/2003; 19:36:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101776)

CoBra(too), that DH dude speaks for me, too

If nobody was willing to challenge an energetic thinker like Turk to play it straight, all we'd ever likely get is more of the same ol same ol bones that he and sector have been serving up in the rush to scoop and outpublish each other. "Trouble in River City!" Ha! That's a good one, I'll have to file it away for later use.

DH is echoing the good points made yesterday by Hand and Clink!.

I'm sorry to report that our work is cut out for us, because Turk is still being too danged hasty for his own good. In his reply to DH, he said of the federal government's new $475 billion debt over the past 12 months that $68 billion was purchased by the Federal Reserve and $218 billion by commercial banks. Perfect. Let's say his research is pristine, and I'll take him at his word for the sake of this example.

However......... the problem hits home in his analysis. Again. Turk cites those figures to say, and I quote:

"together, these financial agents who create dollars monetized $286.5 billion, or 60% of the increase in the federal debt. In other words, 60% of this debt was used to create new dollars �out of thin air�."

C'mon, James! We all see where that's grandstanding. What he said is true enough of the Fed purchases, but when a *commercial* bank directly buys (or "invests in") these government securities there needn't be any net addition to the money supply. In the simplest sense you can grasp it as a transfer of funds from the member banks' accounts held at the Federal Reserve to the Treasury's account at the Fed. Zippo change-o, bucko.

If you insist on seeing it running parallel with Turk's thesis, lemme help you out. You can rather imagine the transaction staying on the street -- as a switch in the form of the commercial bank's in-house assets from excess vault cash to goverment securities while the cash gets bumped over into the Treasury account with those same commercial banks. Truly, the amount of "cash" (i.e., *pure* dollars) in the system stays the same, but in effect the money supply increases because the apparent supply of fungible dollars and "dollar receivables" increases in this transaction as the bank's balance sheet swells by the new acquision of this offsetting asset and liability.

(In case you were wondering, even here the Fed can lean against that tide if they think the street liquidity is rising faster than appropriate. They'd do it through outright sales and open market operations with their own account. I guess this power to wade in demonstrates why they're called the Fed rather than the Starved!!)

Addressing your concluding point, dear Cobra(too), I do find this demonstrated grasp of the reality a little more compelling to stand behind the (my) simple factoid of the necessity of "getting u some" as opposed to the hocus pocus lack of focus being put forth by the skeleton crew. They need to hang some viable flesh on dem bones.

While I'm rolling through the area, have sector ask himself a question about his telltale derivative smoking gun stats from the BIS that he insists are all representative of claims on Gold from the CBs of the world. That's putting it mildly. Sector has actually insisted that the derivative positions are evidence of Gold already gone from the vault. Sheeeeeeesh. First of all, nothing says the CBs are involved as counterparties in those reported positions. Strike one.

Let's look closer. When for example, let's say... a *mining* company decides to hedge some of its production (sounds wild but what the heck, it's been known to happen, right?) back in the good ol' days, they might do it with forward sales. I know, I know, a wild stretch of the imagination , but bear with me.

So when the commercial banks report to their overseeing CBs, and as its all compiled within the BIS stats, it would seem to me that the bullion operations branches of the commercial banks have only a fiat payment obligation (a "fiat forward" as the counterposition to the miners' "Gold forward") and the miners have a bullion delivery obligation -- both of which are independent of the CBs. It's also possible the obligations are netted out or settled with equally papery instruments, and that's *still* independent of the CBs. Strike two.

You know what? I plumb forgot the question. Oh well, as long as he's still at bat there's room for hope he'll take a walk -- but only if he stops wildly swinging for the fence on equally wild pitches.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

The Invisible Hand

(04/23/2003; 19:48:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101777)

The role of ideas

http://www.polyconomics.com/searchbase/06-12-98.htmlSNIP:
The world of antitrust is reminiscent of Alice's Wonderland: everything seemingly is, yet apparently isn't, simultaneously. It is a world in which competition is lauded as the basic axiom and guiding principle, yet "too much" competition is condemned as "cutthroat." It is a world in which actions designed to limit competition are branded as criminal when taken by businessmen, yet praised as "enlightened" when initiated by the government. It is a world in which the law is so vague that businessmen have no way of knowing whether specific actions will be declared illegal until they hear the judge's verdict -- after the fact.
A. Greenspan, based on a paper given at the Antitrust Seminar of the National Association of Business Economists, Cleveland, September 25, 1961. Published by Nathaniel Branden Institute, New York, 1962, reprinted in Rand, A., (ed.), Capitalism: the Unknown Ideal

==
Yes, ideas have consequences.
Read the first sentence again, then ask yourself how come the number of CB gold sold/leased is subject to such a vague interpretation
Also reread Chapter IX "The Role of Ideas" of Mises� Human Action at
http://www.mises.org/humanaction/pdf/ha_09.pdf

sector

(04/23/2003; 20:10:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101778)

@Cobra(Two) There's a saying in radiology residency...

You can tell a referring doc once, you can tell him twice...the thrid time it's personalRadiology is about photosensitive detectors revealing disease. Often the radiographic findings are in conflict with what the doc sees at physical or clinical examination and occasionally the doc refuses to "get it". The resident is taught to let the referring physician go ahead and really screw things up by perusing an incorrect diagnosis...burning the patient and the referring doc's ego in the process. It is an art not to burn the bridges too.

DH and other plants haven't read far enough into the gold manipulation data to be taken seriously [assuming they aren't paid Gold War dis-informants]. Of course they are entitled to opinions on the subject as are we all. But what Mr. DH and his gang is not entitled to is the fabrication of their own facts.

Jim Turk copied export data showing over 2,600 tonnes of gold shipments in 1997. That number is not subject to analysis. HM Customs recorded the values in a table. It happened. Pallets were loaded and gold shipped. If DH and teammates wish to counter that the gold's title didn't change hands on a market and that the gold price fell that year for reasons specified by JP Morgan, Citi Bank, Goldman Sachs and Steven John Kaplan then let's let him stand up and take his best shot with that kind of story. Perhaps the gold was being shipped from one owner in the US/UK to their other vaults for interior decorating purposes. I'm sure that DH can come up with a plausible explanation for the shipments.

The problem is that the armchair shooters never show...never with data...never even with logic. This is the center stage of the gold manipulation debate and the other side still hasn't shown up.

16,000 tonnes of foreword sold gold is a BIS Triennial Survey number...not a GATA number. It came from Tables E-41 and E-49 converted to tonnage by using the end of period PM Fix. All public data at bis.org. That Bank for International Settlements number makes a mockery of Gold Field's Mineral Services and the World Gold Council. Turk's 1997 UK Custom export number obliterates them. Stenographers for the gold cartel.

The large takeaway is that it takes physical metal to manipulate the precious metals market and furthermore the gold cartel's supply has run low.

At each new revelation GATA continues to be vindicated. The gold cartel's stature crumbles and the ultimate reckoning day looms closer.

mikal

(04/23/2003; 20:38:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101779)

@Sector

Good job. I was almost starting to think you'd become MIA. I see where J. Sinclair is watching his behind, if he should decide to accept an invitation to speak at a Malaysian unveiling of the Dinar. Says he doesn't want to end up in Guantanamo when he leaves Malaysia.

Cavan Man

(04/23/2003; 20:55:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101780)

Aristotle: Two Questions Please

1. In the lengthy history of gold, have governmental authorities ever competed against the metal with a competing product? Have they ever and/or perhaps consistently attempted to influence the POG whilst playing with Another scorecard?

2. Is there a history of dislike for the midas metal by political and financial governing authorities and do you think this history has continued unabated to include (at least) the last four consecutive years of alleged free market price discovery?

TIA...CM

mikal

(04/23/2003; 21:00:02 MDT - Msg ID: 101781)

@Sector

http://www.jsmineset.comAfter a reread of one of J. Sinclair's editorials of yesterday, where he spoke of his invitation to Kuala Lumpur for an inaugaration of the Malaysian Dinar- I misinterpreted his concerns. Rather than "watchimng his backside" and the security implications of that, he basically said on 4/22/03 at his site(paraphrased): But I expect I will require certain clearances prior to my departure if I want to return to Connecticut rather than a chicken coop in Cuba.
Sounds like a go to me. I look forward to the dollar doing something similar if possible. Last two days he has been speaking of an Asian gold-backed currency- the Chinese Yuan, in his Q and A's & editorials. Today he said the Malaysian Dinar would precede a larger Asian Dinar and finally a widely used Yuan(having a type of "gold cover clause").

21mabry

(04/23/2003; 21:00:45 MDT - Msg ID: 101782)

(No Subject)

One thing I have found in relation to this forum and the education I have been giving myself,is with books I have read in the past. I find if I go back and reread them I understand them better and get more out of them.An example of this is the creature from jeckle island,I read that about 4 years ago or so I picked it up again last night, I am understanding it better this time around. Of course this may be a curse to have to reread all the economic books I have read, but in sincerity this forum has taught me alot thnx to all.21

21mabry

(04/23/2003; 21:04:34 MDT - Msg ID: 101783)

Caveman

I do not want to presume to answer for Aristotle,but how about silver,goverments have used that.In alot of what I have read the asian countries especially China loved silver.

The Invisible Hand

(04/23/2003; 21:06:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101784)

Gold Quacks

Sector:

If I am gold quack paid by the anti-gold faction,
show me where my analysis of Turk's paper in
The Invisible Hand (04/22/03; 18:43:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101727)
No Proof
was wrong.

If you can't (and I don't even raise the question of the proof that I'm paid), the question arises who is the quack and who gets paid for that? Are you a GATA free-lancer?

Dollar Bill

(04/23/2003; 21:11:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101785)

CB2

Hello CB2,
Glad you posted, it was interesting.
You said, "GATA is the one who found out ..what.. the IMF is up to."

There is reasonable debate about that "what".
But I continue to wait to see the subject of "why"
looked at by those moving the football.
WHY is there an opposing team?
Oh, should I even post this? The reason I wandered away
from the gata, ect side of the stadium, well, I suppose
the ghastly cheerleaders were reason enough,
It was so, I dont know.....middle eastern?
"Death to the hannible cannible cabel !" and so on.

Any recent thoughts on "why" that are different from the past?

Cavan Man

(04/23/2003; 21:16:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101786)

@Aristotle

Being, primarily, an advocate of physical gold (yes, I've put my money where my mouth is), I have often shared your perspective. What I object to is your denigration of the GATA message(s) and in my opinion, yeoman work. At least they, coming at the subject from a different angle, give the reading and thinking public hard analysis based upon equally hard, quantitiative data. So Aristotle, what do you know and when did you know it? Who are you? You are apparently pre-disposed to an absolutist vision of the gold market. What are your credentials? Where's the beef pal?

Not sorry to say I don't live in a world of absolutes, black and whites, dreams, riddles, puzzles, philosophy, ideologic jihads or visions (did I cover it all?). Really,you may be right as rain and the rest of the group as well but how 'bout some hard and fast analysis? Or, is the subject too esoteric to take root in analytical discussion in the context of hard data. Perhaps I'm stuck on the adjectival "hard" because it's been a hard day ('s night).

Can you honestly say GATA has contributed nothing to the ongoing discussion?

Black Blade

(04/23/2003; 21:51:29 MDT - Msg ID: 101787)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

For the last few weeks, earnings reports have come pouring in. Companies are beating estimates. However, one has to ask what are estimates? Do they really mean anything when they are constantly massaged and adjusted lower to the point that companies actually meet or exceed them? As far as earnings go, an investor never knows what they are going to get when companies, analysts, or anchors report them. Earnings now come in different varieties with various expenses, charges, and writedowns routinely excluded from them. Most investors are unaware that the typical earnings reported each week that beat estimates aren't the real thing. They are pro forma numbers given by companies to analysts that typically report profits in a way that makes the company look good. They are not earnings that meet GAAP (generally accepted accounting principals) requirements. Companies are still required to file earnings reports with the SEC according to GAAP principles. However, these are not the numbers that analysts, anchors, or company PR people use in press conferences. The numbers given out by the media and Wall Street pitchmen are the pro forma numbers that in most cases exclude large expenses and write-offs.

In addition to pro forma numbers, there are no standard benchmarks for reporting even within the same industry, so when you hear an earnings report from one company and then hear another report from another company in the same industry, you are often hearing numbers that compare apples and oranges to radishes. Most companies still don't account for stock options. This practice is most prevalent within the tech industry. What's more, many companies are now starting to bury announced layoffs of workers in their press releases. Obviously, you can't report pro forma earnings and portray that things are going well when you continue to lay off more workers.

Black Blade: As I have been saying for some time now. Corporate earnings are mostly fictional and only exist in the wildest hallucinations of either stupid, incompetent or ignorant Wall Street economists and analysts or else these are just people of questionable character. There simply is no other explanation. I too have watched the carnival barkers on CNBC tout stocks with these phony earnings. Sure they mention "pro forma" on occasion but neglect to point out all the warts (cost cutting, expenses, write offs, warnings, etc.) or mention the "real" lowered earnings. I nearly choke back laughter when I hear some analyst or other Wall Street pimp (probably a former used car salesman) mention with a straight face that stocks are reasonably valued (or even under valued). Today was another fun filled day that these carnival barkers provided some entertainment in regard to "Iraqi Oil". Yes, oil prices fell on a surprise jump in inventories which should not be all that surprising given the drop in manufacturing activity, warmer weather, higher prices (demand destruction), increased Saudi production, etc. The story that was spun was that "Iraqi oil flows again". Yes, all 10,000 bbl/day of it. There is a long ways to go until the 2.8 million bbl/day flows prior to the invasion is recaptured. OPEC meets tomorrow to cut quotas too. Typical of the stock infomercial channel, the focus was on a dribble coming out of the Iraqi oil tap. When investors once again focus on the real data we will hear more lame excuses like before such as the "weather was too cold", the "CNN Effect", the "Easter Effect", etc. Next we are likely to hear it's the "SARS Effect". Go figure.

Dollar Bill

(04/23/2003; 21:53:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101788)

Theres gold in them there sand dunes.

Someone today posted a snippet from sinclair onthe
gold dinar. So, I wandered over and bumped into this.

"The organization believes that the unity of the Islamic world can not be achieved except through the unification on the economic level. It also calls for the establishment of a united Islamic market The existence of a fund unity between the countries of the Muslim world will increase the amount of trade between them and will help in increasing the economic development if the conditions for the success of the gold dinar were provided, he added."

What trade? Good grief, rugs? figs? pistachio nuts?
Unity? My wife's relative who is an Iranian Shiite, has told me about all the factions just in Iranian shiite groups.
I wish I had pulled the posting someone made here during the winter discussing the total vulnerabilities of the
the dinar plan. If they set it up, smart money will
leave them broke.

Buena Fe

(04/23/2003; 22:30:23 MDT - Msg ID: 101789)

"The following email to James Turk is the kind that makes me bristle.

thanks CB2 for posting that exchange

as a farm boy we used to use a saying for a person we considered to be "educated beyond their intellect", (lacking common sense),
we called them "dumb as a mud fence"

well imo (get ready, my emotions are getting the better of me today, no one has to consider it worth a toot) DH will be "batting his eyes like a frog in a hail storm" when the $ won't "purchase" an oz of au period.

foa will be proven correct the dollar will cease to function, it most likely will happen over a weekend, with almost no warning.

gata et al are struggling (a valiant effort imo) to process this ghastly concoction of "viper venom", (central-banker's dishonorably secret dis-equalibriums purposely instituted to unnoticingly extract an unjust/underserved/unearned portion of the life blood from the productive sector) and warn decent human beings that protection (au), although diagnosed by wall street as passe and unneccessary, is most advisable.

gold and gata ... hmmmmmmmmm

well, this immature, imperfect example of humanity looks up to them as hero's, discredit me as simple, "idgar"

FreeWillie

(04/23/2003; 22:34:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101790)

Ahem! Anyone Care to Answer, please?

Would any of the esteemed posters on this board please care to answer my question below (what Bush - or anyone else - could do to deflect the euro attack)?

Or is everyone so keen to see gold rise that a US downfall is considered collateral damage and not worth discussing?

Not that I don't want to see gold rise, but I would like a place where the Constitution plays at least a nominal role so I get to decide where, when, and how to spend it.

FW

21mabry

(04/23/2003; 22:52:54 MDT - Msg ID: 101791)

(No Subject)

Free Willie, I think Prez. Bush has a cash cow he can milk dry,that cash cow being Iraq. That country is sitting on billions in oil,if they use 50 percent of profits on the Iraqi people that will be 49 percent more than sadaam gave them.The rest goes to keep the U.S. on top. They may have in Iraq a trump card to opec.

The Invisible Hand

(04/23/2003; 22:59:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101792)

GATA's unreasonable ignorance of the gold held by the ECB

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary24.html#anchor207796
In:
The Invisible Hand (04/22/03; 18:43:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101727)
No Proof
I mentioned already that in the URLd article Howe writes and I quote:
"Assuming a total short physical position in the range of 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes as most recently discussed in �"
and
"Relative to a total short physical position of 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes, 6000 to 8000 tonnes from the euro area does not appear unreasonable."

In the post I went on to state that if I read Another and Trail Guide, I cannot follow this assumption which seems very unreasonable indeed.

Searching "European Central Bank" and "ECB" through the article one finds no mention of the 700 tonnes held by the ECB. The paper assumes that the ECB simply exists in the desert without taking the interaction between the ECB and its 12, and not 11 as Howe indicates, member banks into account.

Howe's story that so far as can be determined from publicly available information, only France -- the second largest individual holder with just over 3000 tonnes -- keeps all its gold in physical form is only meant as sensation.

Why did FOA not want to take GATA into account?

The Invisible Hand,
also to be known as
The Gold Quack
as soon as GATA refutes his The Invisible Hand (04/22/03; 18:43:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101727) No Proof

mikal

(04/23/2003; 23:07:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101793)

@FW

There is no reason why the U.S. will collapse, the dollar will collapse, the rule of law etc...
Ignore the doom and gloom extremist mantras.
What the media fails to report is the profits that are made and offices of authority they preserve, by the code of silence on planned solutions. Like new currencies, districts and alliances. Nationalization of private production or any necessary emergency contingency. Such as provided for in Executive Orders since the '50's. And Presidential Decision Directives. Much of the original War Powers Act is still in effect, to the extent that some believe the country is still in a state of emergency, as in wartime.
Insiders feel privaledged, as Congress or CEO's voting themselves a pay raise and deciding agendas without the representation of the governed(employees, "numbers", taxpayers). But "pork barrel" projects come in all shapes and sizes, whether make-work projects or subsidies, tax breaks or rebates- the U.S. government always seems to survive along with the country and its currency.
The UN and its World Bank and the BIS and perhaps the IMF, will play a major role in reconstructing the entire world after the WORLD ECONOMIC system fails. Mugging Iraq or a few deaths from SARS distract us from the behind-the-scenes agenda.
Also, localities are taking the initiative in introducing scrip barter currencies, independent legislation, border and economic protections and more. A small part of the mosaic unreported by the media, like global economic and social issues found here.

mikal

(04/23/2003; 23:18:18 MDT - Msg ID: 101794)

@FreeWillie

I use the word "collapse" too liberally myself. I need to qualify my statement: "There is no reason the dollar will collapse..." I mean, not to zero, but it should go much lower. Becoming supported before it gets "too low"- for the "cartel of common interest", the PTB, the elites or whomever these trillionaires and their committee or syndicate comprise. Certainly for the visible multinationals. The international(global) industrialists of the banking and finance industry, military complex, petrochemical, pharmaceutical,

mikal

(04/23/2003; 23:29:40 MDT - Msg ID: 101795)

U.S. Dollar supporters cont'd...

...pharmaceuticals, narcotics, poachers, pimps, casinos, counterfeiters, land speculators, etc.
Every Central Bank and large and small foreign fund holding U.S. notes, credits, securities and bonds of every sort with the intention of maintaining liquidity for trade with the U.S.( and for commodities still priced in dollars), or for portfolio diversification and/or safety.

mikal

(04/23/2003; 23:36:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101796)

@FW

Sorry this isn't all in one post.
A final thought, that dollar(stability) supporters must include the large foreign holders of U.S. real estate, factories, farms, etc. In a severe economic downturn, these could be hard to sell without taking a big hit, but they have tangible value favoring holding, long-term.

Belgian

(04/23/2003; 23:40:03 MDT - Msg ID: 101797)

@ FreeWillie #101771

Euro and Gold have NO intention to attack the US-economy. Why should they ?
The US treasury could have started to mark its goldreserves at market, in 1971 ! They didn't because they couldn't and did NOT wanted to. The dollar-reserve had no challenger/alternative and was free (the $) to conquer the world. Read FOA for more insights on this and how it evolved. You will find the reasons why POG exploded up until 1980 (x 25) and how and why it was "contained" from then on up until now.

Today, the US$ cannot go back to Gold ! For the simple reason that the whole globe is awashed in dollars from bottom to top.

Those who work towards Free Gold have to operate gradually and with extreme caution. This to minimize the disastrous dollar-"withdrawel" effects of the massive "dollarization" when the dollar-reserve should be discarded, overnight !

One cannot "change" / "replace" a decades old dollar-monetary system by a new euro-system (concept), with one single finger-click !!!
Read Towncrier's post #101766 :F.T. - R.Prodi : Euroland needs to develop a "true political personality" and...
*** We cannot simply hand Europe responsibility for the
" TREASURY " while leaving the " PORTFOLIO " for security with America !!! (Bravo Randy !)

Is it surprising that we all are entangled into the enormous complicated maneuvering of many Central Banks and World monetary institutions ? No it isn't !
We are watching the struggle between an established dollar-Giant and a candidate euro-challenger ! This implies a lot of UN-Transparency, intrige and subversion ! Compare it with the 12 years of *preparation* for Iraqi liberation/occupation.

For the time being, we see the dollar/euro-exchange rate, hoovering at an "optimum" exchange rate for still a majority of participants. Just keep asking yourself "WHY" currency exchange rates do evolve as they do !? Forex markets just don't move their confetti floods as random.
Many different forces do guide the major trends. Dollar and euro-forces, political, economical, financial.

Gigantic (growing) masses of confetti are there, ready to rush at an infinitesimal amount of available Gold ! What a crazy situation this is ! Can you imagine what would happen "if" and "when" those confetti troops are incited to run for the Gold-Loot !? Imagine that CBs should signal, loud and clearly, that Gold (Freegold) is going to come back as the backbone of a new monetary "system" !
That would bring an immediate, chaotic, destructive, monetary disaster of epic proportions. In nature, competing males do not fight to death for procreation. Dollar and euro are not going to do so, either.

In very simple words : Those who wish to kill the dollar can do so if they decide "en masse" to buy Gold for these dollars and knowing that at the same time, they would bring the world to a temporary standstill. A NOT very likely scenario.

Dollar/euro exchange rate and POG will evolve in function of (geo) political change in balances rather than economical realities. That's what is different, today imvho. And this process is possible since the euro-alternative exists. That's why the euro meets so much resistance from the dollar-block and a faction of Atlantist loyals, within the euro-block.

I have no scenario, FreeWillie ! I'm watching dollar/euro/oil/gold and try to "interpret" the moves as good as possible. As close to the "real" underlying aspects as I can get with my daily adjusted understanding. What else can we or the "rulers" do ? Rulers have different plans (projects-hummm). Observers (we) simply try to position ourselves with our respective understandings.

An euro remaining above parity with the dollar is a positive sign for Gold. A POG-gap would signal that the euro wants (can) to hasten up the "change" process. It might signal that the dollar wants to let the euro take the lead and the dollar goes low/lower profile ? It is lonely at every top you know. One has to be extremely strong to remain on top or challenge the top-place. That's what is happening, Sir !

But...

The decades old Gold-Containment is under rising strain !
We might run out of available Gold, sooner than expected !
Will see if, when and how it happens.

Gandalf the White

(04/24/2003; 00:02:01 MDT - Msg ID: 101798)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA --- POG CONTEST UPDATE !!!

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!

COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
---
FYI

PREVIOUS Days GC3M Settlement prices were:
4/21/03 HIGH = $334.5 low = $327.6 Settle = $333.9 Change +$6.3 OI 4/18/03 = 109,944 contracts.
4/22/03 HIGH = $336.8 low = $332.4 Settle = $334.8 Change +$0.9 OI 4/21/03 = 109,484 contracts.
4/23/03 HIGH = $335.6 low = $331.5 Settle = $331.9 Change -$2.9 OI 4/22/03 = 106,807 contracts.

AND Sir Topaz is now the "King of the Hill "
---

LISTING of Entries (Decending Values) as of THURSDAY, 4/24/03, 00:01 Denver Time !

**** $367.8 **** Moegold (04/22/03; 11:12:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 101695)

**** $354.4 **** Goldbug 1 (04/21/03; 22:20:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 101679)

**** $353.9 **** Eleanor of Aquitaine (04/22/03; 12:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101701)

**** $351.3 **** goldquest (04/21/03; 20:16:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 101670)

**** $351.0 **** mikal (4/23/03; 09:27:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101748)

**** $350.0 **** Zhisheng (04/22/03; 13:36:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 101709)

**** $347.5 **** VanRip (04/22/03; 17:31:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 101721)

**** $345.6 **** steady (04/23/03; 17:07:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 101772)

**** $345.0 **** Clink! (04/22/03; 06:07:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 101690)

**** $343.3 **** Nakajima (04/22/03; 08:17:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101692)

**** $342.1 **** slingshot (04/22/03; 23:52:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 101738)

**** $340.3 **** makcumka (04/21/03; 20:42:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101673)

**** $338.5 **** cockerel1 (4/23/03; 13:23:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 101753)

**** $338.1 **** pilgrims_gold (4/23/03; 13:44:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101754)

**** $332.7 **** J-Bullion (4/23/03; 14:41:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101758)

**** $326.5 **** Topaz (04/22/03; 04:31:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 101689)

===
LET the POG CONTEST CONTINUE !!

<;-)

The Invisible Hand

(04/24/2003; 00:04:24 MDT - Msg ID: 101799)

correction

The Invisible Hand (04/23/03; 22:59:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 101792)
GATA's unreasonable ignorance of the gold held by the ECB

ECB has indeed only 11, and not 12, member banks. Sorry.

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 00:56:27 MDT - Msg ID: 101800)

Market Indicators

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures are sharply lower (but that could change at about 6 am est), the USD is slightly positive but should pull back soon on rising world currencies, petroleum has reversed to slightly positive, and gold is rebounding up by $1.50. Asian markets took a spill except Japan. The big story in Asia is the rising body count and infected as the SARS outbreak continues. The rumor(?) is that additional quarantine camps are being prepped in China and Singapore.

- Black Blade

The Invisible Hand

(04/24/2003; 01:51:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101801)

Destined to Become the Gold Standard for Digital Radiography

http://www.gemedicalsystemseurope.com/euen/rad/xr/radio/products/msxxrd.htmlSNIP:
As more healthcare facilities adopt digital radiography, they all want to lower costs, increase efficiency and, most importantly, enhance patient care. But achieving these goals will require equipment that's been designed to help you meet them, such as the Revolution XR system from GE Medical Systems.
==
I am breaking the Forum's guidelines of "no promotional use" of the URL box, but as the soon to be Gold Quack, I must prove the relevance of radiology, and not only the sayings in radiology residency, to gold.

Belgian

(04/24/2003; 02:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101802)

Attention...

The rand keeps rising against the dollar (+45%) AND euro (+35%) !!! What is going on here ??? Any takers ? TIA.

Aristotle

(04/24/2003; 02:53:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101803)

Attempting Two Answers for Cavan Man's msg#: 101780

To make this worth our while I've got to make sure I understand what you're asking.

Regarding your question #1.

What exactly is the nature of the *competition* that you're referring to? The inert nature of Gold doesn't lend itself as a fierce *competitor* on an active confrontation, so I'll have to assume you mean as a passive substance in *usage*.

In the history of the marketplace it should be this simple: There is only one Gold and yellow is its color.

As a physical item, doesn't it seem silly that a government should care about Gold usage and its pale competitors for dental fillings, platings, and whatnot any moreso than they'd care about corn usage and its competing grains, wheat and rice, for usage in food and fiber(?)?

The problem arose in the nature of monetary development through an evolutionary process. We didn't just wake up one day and discover this amazing social phenomenon known as MONEY in it's full-bloomed glory. Ohhhhhh no, my friend, we were there trying to make beneficial use of it every step of the way from it's germination from physical (you can think Golden) seeds through its sprouting, growth, flowering, and soon to be bearing fruit.

The evolutionary process gave rise to problems when the market participants had a hard time figuring out the point where the growing sprout had truly become separately viable from the original seed. Most governments weren't much better in making the distinction. Long after the concept of "receivables" was well accepted and in use, Gold was still being pressed into coins -- as seeds lingering at the root of it all -- as if the vibrant stem and lofty spreading branches still depended on it.

Lest there be any lasting doubt about it, in turn Lincoln, Roosevelt, and Nixon did their part to show us that it did not. Fact. Other nations could cite their own similar experiences.

Prior to that stage, let me stay with my seed/sprout analogy to the extent that it applies. Unable to separate the two, when governments found that revenue through taxation (or whatever conventional source) was hard to come by, they resorted to more creative forms of generation. Have you ever planted potatoes? Unlike conventional seeds, per se, you don't need a whole one to have a single sprout. You can get more mileage (sproutage?) by cutting the potato into smaller bits. As long as each bit of spud contains an eye, it'll get the job done. So that's essentially what clever bit of minting "mischief" many sovereigns would resort to -- they'd cut down the amount of Gold in each coin. These bits of their former full-bodied self would issue forth just as though a "full potato" were underground. Eventually, the scheme would be pushed to its breaking point where a massive tangle of feeble sovereign sprouts would wither as failing confidence by the marketplace would be manifested in inflation of prices.

Thankfully we survived that tumultuous sprouting/learning stage. But as I said, governments were still slow in the distinction, so as we got beyond the seed/sprout years (and here I'm talking about money as a *global* phenomenon such as the international franc at the turn of the century) when democratic nationalism arose as a political reality in the 20th century, it came with no surprise that governments would ever moreso put their domestic agendas ahead of international affairs, especially as reflected in their monetary policy toward domestic and international settlements.

Through trial and error in an effort to serve its social needs, it became apparent to astute observers that the viable plant (monetary system) and the original physical seeds (Gold coins) were no longer indivisible. They were two completely different creatures. Stepping away from my analogy, money was become indisputably an elaborate accounting network of "receivables" whereas Gold was quite obviously a physical thing -- property. Trying to economize a bit, let me summarize by saying that the United States found itself at the dawn of this new era (post-Bretton Woods, post-Nixon) in the unique position of having its brand of airy money as the reserve asset center of the international system of its equally airy international monetary peers. When all of the benefits of that happy circumstance settled in on the minds of the U.S. government, you'd better believe they suddenly saw an incentive to *compete* with Gold. They did this through a continuation of it's long-standing program of issuing interest-bearing bonds (money that grows stemmier or leafier as you hold it) along with a program to obscure the apparent market value of Gold through active over-fertilization of the remaining Gold seeds into a parallel system of ever more and more Gold "receivables" -- paper Gold, derivatives, bullion banking.

Get the picture? The rationale went something like, "Why would anyone dishoard our carefully nurtured dollar-denominated receivables when the alternative is Gold obscured in a recklessly spawning forest of Gold-denominated receivables?"

Up to this point, nations have known no alternative. Europe, however, has long had visions of a better way -- a more level playing ground that unseats the dollar from its lofty throne simply by revealing Gold in its full-bodied unobscured glory. Nations recalling the turmoils of this dollar-centric system will almost surely be reluctant to go whole-hearted into any similarly structured system. The euro, to be sure, *has* to be a different animal. It's market money *without* the concurrent government agenda to keep Gold out of the limelight.

To finish your question, I don't know what you mean by "another scorecard."

Regarding your question #2.

In the preceding commentary I think I've addressed where the motive had been at various stages for governments to have something other than a neutral position about physical Gold. During the formative seed/sprout era as money was not yet viable on its own root system, some governments certainly disliked their lack of Gold and with it their lack of pure monetary emission as a temporary economic balm available under sovereign privilege. After Nixon, due to its unique position with massive reserve usage, I think it's safe to argue that the United States has been unique in its vested interest to keep all international hearts and minds off of consideration of Gold as a superior reserve asset.

However, turnabout is fair play. Just as Gold has been beaten down over the past three decades through fertilization of the growth of Gold-derivatives and bullion banking usage (yes, and it's price STILL rose from $35 to $350!!!,) the dollar may also now be vulnerable to value destruction by a destabilizing hyperinflation of dollar-derivatives and eurodollar banking usage. When each type of bloated system collapses, the physical Gold portion of the former system can still stand as Gold. But what's a dollar got going for it when the latter system collapses and the world's market players step lively into a less unstable and less imbalanced two-part system of Gold property (savings) and euro-style accounting (money)? The two-part aspect is the key point I'm trying (and failing miserably) to impress upon you guys.

I've just now seen your follow-up message # 101786. I won't dignify it with any legitimate attempt at response to your several additional questions. You outta know better, pal. It wouldn't change by one iota your understanding of my commentary if I claimed to be Mr. So-and-So, a guy who actually used to walk in those Goldbugger's Standard shoes -- that I'm Mr. "Been There Done That" to the point where I know their side of the argument better than they do and have since abandoned it as a misdirected cause when wisdom and clarity finally struck like a thunderbolt. OK, so let's say I'm the guy who served on This and That Committee during the blind idiocy of my youth and again, as though getting a shot at redemption, during the rationality of age and further understanding. Would it make a bit of difference to you if I were the principal author of a policy paper read by one single Association, or a memo commissioned for one pair of eyes, or would you insist on hearing about the one deemed worthy of action by both bodies of Congress?

That sickens me. Credentials claimed here won't mean a damned thing to you, me, or anyone else if you, dear reader, aren't willing or able to see a body of work at its face value, independent of the author or translating orator. Let me convince you instead that I am nobody of note and there is nothing I need to prove simply because of the nature of it all. I could step down fade away and events would not change course. Ya know what? I've noticed the sun also rises *without* my effort to say it does. I offer you a leg up to a better view of the road ahead, or of the sunrise at a more distant horizon, to anyone who'll have it. I do it in honor of a tradition of those who had no need to help the likes of me but did anyway -- carrying me far and away higher than I thought generosity among mere mortals could make possible -- I'd say they carried me along on the shoulders of giants.

That's not a bad gig lemme tell ya. It's been a good ride.

Perhaps you'll find it in your heart to forgive me if my karma runs over your pet dogma.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(04/24/2003; 03:03:09 MDT - Msg ID: 101804)

@Belgian - The Rand

Is this the new 'Swiss Franc'? Are they planning a full gold backing for this currency?

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(04/24/2003; 03:11:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101805)

Greenspan must go for higher inflation

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1048313970428&p=1012571727085By Bill Dudley and Paul McCulley
Published: April 23 2003 19:56 | Last Updated: April 23 2003 19:56

The Federal Reserve has won its long war against inflation. And, with victory, go the spoils - evident in President George W. Bush's decision to reappoint Alan Greenspan for another term as chairman. But to ensure an enduring legacy, Mr Greenspan now needs to solve a different problem: inflation is too low, rather than too high.

How so? The economy needs a buffer of inflation above price stability to ensure that monetary policy has room to work effectively in the event of shocks to aggregate demand. The inflation rate should be high enough to allow the economy to take a shock without falling into deflation.

During its anti-inflation campaign, the Fed opportunistically accepted recessions when they inevitably occurred because they generate disinflationary dividends. Then, in subsequent recoveries, the Fed would pre-emptively increase rates before there was any sign of a rise in inflation.

WAC: Will Inflation come out ahead in the Infalation/Deflation battle?

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 03:34:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101806)

Final economic impact of SARS could be major -OECD

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030424/economy_oecd_sars_2.html
Snippit:

PARIS, April 24 (Reuters) - Paris-based thinktank OECD warned on Thursday the overall economic fallout of the SARS crisis for worst-affected countries could be significant as tourism and retail sectors suffered major blows. The warning, included in its twice-yearly report on the global economy, came after the World Bank cited the deadly virus as one factor behind a cut in its East Asia growth forecast. "The ultimate macroeconomic repercussions of the epidemic are difficult to ascertain at this stage," the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its semi-annual report. "...But past experience with other disease outbreaks suggests that local or sectoral impacts in the most seriously affected countries could be significant if the emergency were to worsen and persist," it concluded.

Black Blade: The SARS plague is spreading and now there's talk that some foreign manufacturers may close up shop in China until the crisis passes. Yesterday the World Health Organization issued a warning to all traveling to Toronto that travel to the city is best avoided. Talk of "quarantine camps" and setting up special hospitals in China and Singapore is making the rounds. Even Major League Baseball has warned US teams to avoid contact with Canadian residents while in the country. Asian markets are taking a hit on the spreading plague. It is expected that the SARS plague will eventually spread worldwide as it is now considered impossible to contain. Worldwide economies are certain to be effected.

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 03:38:17 MDT - Msg ID: 101807)

Market Index Futures Rebound

Right on time too. A surge of index buying appeared out of nowhere right on time (6am est). Market index futures coming off of lows.

- Black Blade

Aristotle

(04/24/2003; 03:39:41 MDT - Msg ID: 101808)

Belgian, my two cents on the strengthening rand

I'll humor you. Perhaps this is near what you've already got in mind.

My humble opinion suggests that "somebody" has deemed it either simply unnecessary to continue *subsidizing* the production of Gold, or perhaps more aggressively stated, that "somebody" has deemed it pointedly *expedient* to cease that subsidy.

The follow on would be a shrinking base of annual Physical serving to put more strain on the house of paperGold cards to maintain their valuations by the market considered at par with the Metal. "What? No Physical at the paperGold price?!" **POOF** ... all fall down.

On second thought, that's only about one cent worth. I'll owe you one, at interest, OK?

Gold. Gettin' harder to come by... --- Ari

Topaz

(04/24/2003; 03:41:54 MDT - Msg ID: 101809)

@ Gandalf.

While it's nice to be called "leading into the home turn" Gandy, I do believe Sir J-Bullion has his nose in front!...and there's plenty of "rides" still available.

Mounts...get you some! Good post Ari.

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 03:52:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101810)

OECD Cuts World Economic Growth Forecasts

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030424/0519000653_1.html
Snippit:

BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Thursday cut its forecasts for economic growth around the world, saying it expects a "progressive, if unspectacular" rebound. In its twice-yearly economic outlook, the Paris-based group said the U.S. recovery is still "fragile," and weaker than expected, while the euro zone has " undershot an already modest forecast by a wide margin." A genuine recovery in Japan has failed to take hold, it said. While a relapse into recession cannot be "totally" ruled out, it remains unlikely.

On top of geopolitical and economic tensions, a new risk to growth recently emerged, with the spreading of an atypical form of pneumonia, called severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS. The economic impact of SARS will depend largely on how promptly and effectively the virus can be brought under control, the OECD said. Preventive measures have been taken in the places most directly affected - China, Hong Kong, Canada, Singapore and elsewhere - but they have disrupted trade and business. A cheaper method of prevention or a cure have yet to be discovered. "The ultimate macroeconomic repercussions of the epidemic are difficult to ascertain at this early stage, but past experience with other disease outbreaks suggests that local or sectorial impacts in the most seriously affected countries could be significant if the emergency were to worsen and persist," the OECD said.

Black Blade: Ya just gotta love the optimism of these guys at the OECD. They predict economic growth again. So far they are 0 for 3. As far as SARS is concerned, it won't be contained as by the time symptoms appear the extremely contagious infected subject has been wandering about infecting other subjects who in turn infect others. The sweeping epidemic will mostly likely sweep around the world leaving no place untouched. As there is no cure and subjects can be re-infected multiple times it does not take much to figure that the 6% mortality rate could be repeated over and over. The growth rate could be logarithmic reaching near total exposure in a couple of months, A cure is not expected for at least the next 18 months � minimum. Investment tip � 3M, they make surgical masks.

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 04:05:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101811)

RNBZ restores trend of lower global rates,SARS on agenda

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030424/economy_global_rates_1.html
Snippit:

LONDON, April 24 (Reuters) - The trend toward falling global interest rates was restored with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate cut with the outbreak of the deadly SARS virus now a serious risk to worldwide economic growth. A few Asian central banks have already cited SARS as a factor affecting monetary policy but Wednesday's stark comments by the BOC about SARS plus those by the RNBZ illustrate the global dimension of the disease and what steps central bankers are considering to help cushion its impact.

Black Blade: Just over the wire � Beijing University Hospital is now an internment center and is under quarantine control. No one is allowed to leave. Those suspected to be infected are locked in with over 2,000 staff. Other Chinese cities are considering doing the same and it is rumored that other quarantine sites are being set up through out China. Toyota is pulling Japanese employees out of China. Wal-Mart, IBM, and Adidas are among those considering doing the same. It is now said that the body count piles up at a rate of about 10%.

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 04:26:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101812)

China Seals Hospital Over SARS, Canada Mad at WHO

http://reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=scienceNews&storyID=2617740
Snippit:

BEIJING/TORONTO (Reuters) - China sealed off a major hospital in Beijing on Thursday as SARS fears spread through the capital a day after the World Health Organization warned against travel to the city. WHO also urged against travel to Toronto, a statement that drew a furious reaction from Canadian officials. Mainland China has 106 of the 254 killed by SARS so far and more than half of the 4,500 infections worldwide. Although SARS is believed to have originated in southern Guangdong province last year, the situation in Beijing is causing particular alarm with soaring numbers of infections this week.

On Wednesday, the Beijing city government said it would quarantine people and buildings infected, or suspected of being infected, with the SARS virus, the official Xinhua news agency said -- by force if necessary. The sealing of the 1,200-bed Beijing University People's Hospital on Thursday was the first dramatic sign of the measure being implemented. "No one is allowed to enter or leave," a member of the 2,300-strong staff told Reuters by telephone. "There are policemen and security guards standing outside." Singapore reported another death from SARS overnight, taking its total to 15 known fatalities and two suspected ones. The city-state said all visitors entering and leaving will have their temperature checked at the airport or at land crossings.

The WHO statement, which advised against travel to Beijing, China's Shanxi province and Toronto in addition to a previous warning about Hong Kong and Guangdong, led to outrage in Canada. "Where did this group come from? Who did they see? Who did they talk to?" a visibly angry Mel Lastman, Toronto's mayor, asked at a press conference, referring to WHO. "They sit somewhere, I understand Geneva, I don't even know where the hell they came from, and they make decisions. Canada has 330 cases of SARS and 16 deaths, most of them in Toronto, which has a large Chinese population. WHO fears that SARS, with a mortality rate that approaches six percent, may become a permanent human disease.

Black Blade: The news of SARS outbreaks is the top story everywhere as cases are expected to soar. This morning television guests estimate that the death rate could be as high as 10% with re-infection very possible and could be as normal as the common cold. Asian markets plummet on the news, however, complacent Eurolanders and Americans appear as yet unfazed with Euro markets rising and US market futures indices rebounding into positive territory after being down sharply overnight. I guess every once in a while a plague must hit to "cull the herd" so to speak. At least it isn't as bad as the Black Plague yet.

Topaz

(04/24/2003; 04:32:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101813)

There's a curiosity!...@ BB.

Hola BB,
In your NZ bank post (below)- both in subject line AND the "snippit" you posted RNBZ.
It would follow that the Reuters article has been typed rather than "cut 'n pasted" as the acronym was repeated... although the original verbatum Yahoo item stated RBNZ.

I think I'll go watch CNBC Europe!!

Toolie

(04/24/2003; 04:38:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101814)

Where have I heard this before?

http://www.msnbc.com/news/904236.aspSnip;
In fact, the dispute isn't about WMDs at all. It's about something else entirely: who gets to sell � and buy � Iraqi oil, and what form of currency will be used to denominate the value of the sales. That decision, in turn, will help decide who controls Iraq, which, in turn, will represent yet another skirmish in a growing global economic conflict. We want a secular, American-influenced pan-ethnic entity of some kind to control the massive oil fields (Iraq's vast but only real source of wealth). We want that entity to be permitted to sell the oil to whomever it wants, denominated in dollars.

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 05:00:38 MDT - Msg ID: 101815)

Topaz

I didn't even catch that, but heck, I get dyslexic too. ;-)

- Black Blade

Toolie

(04/24/2003; 05:20:16 MDT - Msg ID: 101816)

Bloomberg bashes besieged buck

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=akZEJnsQKMWw&refer=japanSnip;
The reports ``are going to encourage more people to sell the dollar,'' said Derek Kwok, director of foreign exchange in Tokyo at Barclays Plc. ``More people are looking for excuses to sell the dollar.'' The currency may weaken to $1.1050 per euro today, he said.

Aziz McMahon, a currency analyst at ABN Amro, agreed. ``Investors are worried the numbers are going to be very bad,'' he said. ``They're wondering what reasons are left to buy the dollar at this point.'' Concern the government will sell a record amount of bonds for any quarter also is hurting the dollar, he added.

The U.S. will sell more than $60 billion of debt at its quarterly refunding in two weeks, setting a record, some analysts predict. The U.S. budget deficit will exceed $425 billion this fiscal year, Goldman, Sachs & Co. estimates.

With attention switching from the conflict in Iraq to the global economy, some investors are concerned that the U.S. won't expand enough to attract the $1.5 billion a day in foreign investment needed to sustain the dollar's value and offset the current-account deficit.

Toolie; It seems that the major news services are starting to parrot some of the analyses that many here have taken as the unreported truth about U.S. economy. It's the masses that move markets, the masses are finally beginning to get the information that will allow them to asses the future of Dollar denominated assets. Send your worthless FRN's to MK before he catches on.

Sundeck

(04/24/2003; 05:59:04 MDT - Msg ID: 101817)

****$337.0****

Why does gold seem to be bouncing back?

"Bouncing back" from what? POG underwent a correction to its overly rapid rise that peaked in early February 2003. "Causality" in such matters is usually vague, but the trigger in this case was pretty clearly the unsuspected margin increase on COMEX. Downward movement in POG followed a typical profit-taking cum stop-loss correction that appears to have recently ended. One might speculate that the downward momentum may have been deliberately accentuated by "parties unknown" so as to get POG as low as possible. Rather than "bouncing back", POG now appears to be resuming its secular uptrend for all the reasons elaborated on within this forum in previous gold competitions.

And the reasons are many...perhaps almost as many as there are ways of mis-spelling Maria Bartaroma .... err ... Barteliromo ... I mean Baritromo ... Dang! How do you spell that name? Very confusing. Almost as confusing as some of those day-time chat shows. Assuming you listen to them of course, which I don't. (Not much into Ave Marias myself.) I get most of my information from HERE - the MIGHTY OAKEN TABLE! A truly tangible asset! (As opposed to the flim-flam-flummery that passes for day-time viewing in some quarters.) Incidentally, do you know that timber (or lumber as some people call it), i.e. a piece of wood, has been one of the best investments over time? So hold onto that valuable table guys...it could even be worth more in the future.

As to whether Maria is a closet gold bug (like Chairman Al?) I couldn't say. No doubt she is worth a whole lot more in paper, gold or matchticks than me, so she can probably get by without a gold stash in Lower Manhattan...

If I hosted a financial day-time chat show, ticking along in the top right-hand corner would be the chart of the Dow-Gold ratio for the last hundred years with emphasis on the present secular down-trend ... ominous ... inexorable ... unstopable ... How many financial chat-shows will be around in three to ten years when this chart bottoms? And how will the language have changed?

May you all have your time under the Sun.

Sundeck

Gold Standard

(04/24/2003; 06:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 101818)

The attack of the "flationists"

Hmmm, with an eye turned permanently towards the reports of the doomsayers (as a general class of "contrarian"), there does not appear to be any consensus of opinion as to what is actually happening to the economy, and most importantly, what is LIKELY to happen.

We have those who see INFLATION, in that an ever increasing supply of money will naturally lead to a rise in general prices.

On the other hand, we have those who fear DEFLATION, which to my mind conjures up a shrinking money supply, and essentially what can be termed a "credit squeeze". DEFLATION leads to lower prices for goods and services, (so we are told), and it is bad, because there are lower profits. These people are the DEFLATIONISTS.

However, as far as I can see, the examples of DEFLATION are merely examples of (a) increased efficiency, by desire or necessity, (b) the inevitable result of technological progress, and (c) Adam Smith's "Invisible Hand" in demonstrable action.

Here we have the obvious heir-apparent of Sir Alan Greenspan, CB Governor Bernanke, telling the world that he has a printing-press, which he can use to forestall or completely hose away the spectre of this perceived evil of
"DEFLATION".

We are all told that the Great Depression of '29 - '34 was a DEFLATIONARY depression, and as we all know, that was very bad.

The logical corollary of all this is simply that businesses had to reduce profits and overheads (by way of shedding staff as well as profits) in order to survive the period. Picture a manufacturing industry, when faced with the choice of either bankruptcy or "scaling down", the obvious result is the evil DEFLATION.

Just as INFLATION is misconstrued by 99.9% of the Joe Sixpack's out there as general price increases (rather than general price increases caused by an increased amount of (false and unbacked) money flowing around the system), so too is DEFLATION totally misunderstood by Joe Sixpack, to an even greater level of misunderstanding, if that is at all possible.

As far as Joe Sixpack is concerned, DEFLATION is GOOD! What's wrong with buying more of anything for your hard-earned dollar?

Our Government, however, thinks that DEFLATION is bad.

To my admittedly simple mind, DEFLATION is the logical opposite of INFLATION, meaning that the supply of "money" (however Greenspan et al may attempt to define money) is reduced, leading to a general inability of any business or person to borrow money. A CREDIT SQUEEZE.

The inability of capital intensive businesses to survive on "savings" (and indeed the efforts of governments to ensure that they tax retained earnings to the utmost)ensures that businesses will "scale down" when they don't have access to ready credit.

You can see why DEFLATION is bad - it leads to a self-perpetuating nightmare of scaling-down, reduced profits, a reduced "buyer" base, reduced profits.....

It must end in tears, mustn't it?

So, in a pure economics sense, whilst we have the Central Banks endlessly pumping away on the printing presses, we must have INFLATION, no? Similarly, if the Powers That Be stop printing money like it's going out of fashion, we have DEFLATION...

Unfortunately, there are many, many theorists (most of whom appear to be on the public payroll) who have come up with alternative scenarios. I cannot seem to get my head around some of these concepts, and as a result, I seek the wisdom of the Lords and Ladies of this fine table to assist my quest for knowledge.

I call these theorists the "FLATIONISTS".

Firstly, Ladies and Gentlemen, we have (.... drum roll please!)the STAGFLATIONISTS. These ayatollahs of the economy preach the message that the economy will trundle on as it has done in the past, with a few price increases here and there (in inessential things like energy, health, insurance and housing) which are somehow counteracted by decreases in prices in items such as mobile telephones and computer equipment.

They gleefully point to Japan, and say "THAT'S STAGFLATION. The economy doesn't grow, doesn't contract, it just muddles along." They equally gleefully point to the USA, and say "we are following Japan's lead!".

The STAGFLATIONISTS, as a whole (I believe) are prone to dribbling out of both sides of their mouths at once, and beating their children.

Next, we have the (.... drum roll please.....) DISINFLATIONISTS. What "disinflation" actually means is completely beyond the feeble mental abilities of your humble correspondent. Logically, "disinflation" is the opposite of "inflation", which I thought was "deflation". No, the "disinflation" pundits are not claiming that there will be "deflation", rather, what they are saying is that there will be price inflation on some items (like energy, health insurance and housing), and price reductions in stressed industries, so the end result is a "muddle through" process.

Personally, I believe that the DISINFLATIONISTS are prone to dribbling from both sides of their mouth at once, and beating their children and small household pets. (I put the last bit in, about the "household pets", in order to distinguish them from the Deflationists).

Next (.... drum roll please ....) we have the REFLATIONISTS. These (I think) are the people who believe that we will have REFLATION, as opposed to INFLATION. To my fevered mind, REFLATION is re-inflating something that has previously burst (deflated?) in the past, such as the NASDAQ bubble.

Only the Joe Sixpack's who have any discretionary wealth left over after the last debacle will follow the siren call of the Reflationists.

REFLATIONISTS, I'm sorry to say, are so out of left-field that they probably dribble out of both sides of their mouths at once, and beat their children WITH small animals.

I don't think that I have left anyone out, and I'm sure that the Lords and Ladies of this Table will correct me if I have.

Nurse! Nurse? Medication Time!!!

Cavan Man

(04/24/2003; 06:22:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101819)

Hello Aristotle

Thank you for your response. I am simply tiring of watching you heap derision upon so many (in an unmanly way) whom merely have a different take on the market. Rather than attempt again to call that fact to your attention, I'll just take a seat in the row of fools and charlatans you imply, put on my hat and wait for your "heaps". Have a nice day.

Leigh

(04/24/2003; 06:36:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101820)

Maria B.

I'm not entering the contest, but I KNOW that Maria's a closet goldbug. During commercials at CNBC and then late into the evenings, she's an avid reader of all the gold forums, where she posts under the name of Golden Earring.

goldenpeace

(04/24/2003; 08:33:30 MDT - Msg ID: 101821)

Question to Sector.....

Could you post the permanent injections to the money supply by the Fed as you see them occurring?...It would give the forum a great headsup as to why many of the anomalous moves in the markets keep occurring.....
Thanks in advance....
Bowing and Thanks for the great work!
goldenpeace

admin

(04/24/2003; 09:44:28 MDT - Msg ID: 101823)

MK's Gold Commentary & Review

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Quick Notes for 4/24/03

Lothar of the Hill People

(04/24/2003; 09:49:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101824)

******** 334.5 *********

The sound of contest with a prize of gold has lured Lothar to this great hall from the sactuary of the ancient cavern home of the Hill People.

The entrails of the albino bat reveal only uncertainty. Will there be war or peace? Inflation, recession? Oil and gas aplenty or a dearth? Will the dollar rule? Will the market manipulation continue?

The omens mislead, vision is obscured--POG moves up and down with news and rumor. And so it shall be until vision is clear to the people. Then gold will prevail. But when?

When sister Maria abandoned the tranquility of the Hill People to seek her destiny in the outside world, she and the people were still deceived by the empty promises of paper--you may remember my chronicle of that time. She had not yet learned the value of Gold.

She took with her paper and a share of the only asset of the Hill People--guano of the great albino bat. Thus her stash is likely of a different sort.

Let the games begin. Good fortune to all.

I am Lothar, of the Hill People.

FreeWillie

(04/24/2003; 09:56:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101825)

T o Belgian:

I realize that the euro authorities do not PLAN to overthrow the dollar instantaneously. However, the process is in motion, and is in my opinion unavoidable.

Whether it all happens tomorrow, or in ten years, the result will be hyper-inflation in the US and no way of telling how far the weakening of the US economy goes.

With the current level of anti-american sentiment in the world, especially in europe, at least a tendency to speed this process up somewhat cannot be denied.

If the UK were to go euro and start quoting Brent Crude in euro, another major puzzle piece will be in place toward moving some OPEC nations toward euro.

If Bush does nothing, all that confetti in the world will still go the way of all paper. When I speak of "collapse" I do not mean to "zero." I mean a drastic reduction in foex value. As nations decide to "go euro", one by one, however gradually, this effect WILL take place. Are the US' hands tied completely?

Assume that Bush gets Congress to ditch the Section 5117 gold "price", but doesn't announce it. What would be the consequences?

(1) Treasury would have to pay the fed banks who delivered their gold to the treasury at market price - way too expensive.

(2) Alternatively, Treasury could "pay" them for their current gold certificates in cash at the stated price, and THEN abolish 5117. Makes more economic sense, but will piss the fed banks off quite a bit. (So what?)

In case of (2), Fed system "reserves" will be limited to what they got for their gold under 5117. This would be a continuation of the current situation - no change, no added detriment.

If Treasury then announces that it values Gold at market price, would that throw the world markets into convulsions any more than the EU's announcement to that effect did? I see no reason why it would. Most people don;'t even know what that means, and those who do know will still shut up just like they are doing now (except they will increase their efforts at quietly buying gold).

The "everybody rushing to gold" effect of such an announcement may be severe, but it will happen anyway once the dollar breaches a certain level to the downside. It would give individual Americans at least a chance to participate in that rush. Currently, it looks like only everybody else will benefit - at the Americans' ultimate expense.

The only difference will be that, if Bush does this, the dollar stands a chance, long term, to at least stay in the reserve-money game, rather than gradually but unavoidably being eclipsed altogether. This would limit the amount of dollars that will return home significantly, limiting the hyper-inflationary effect.

Why would that not work? Are their alternatives? I doubt it.

Attempts at military occupation of much of the Middle East will only hasten the world's impetus to rush away from the dollar - because the news that this will defeat the "Imperialists" is now out. The OPEC countries may perceive the threat of total domination to be worse than the purely economic fallout from going euro. At least they will still have the oil.

FW

Gondolin

(04/24/2003; 10:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101826)

*****$336.6*******

Why, after taking a verbal beating from the financial press during �Gulf War II� -- most notably the day-time television business chats -- does gold seem to be bouncing back?"

or, put another way:

"Does Maria Baritromo really have a secret gold stash tucked away in downtown New York, or is that just a nasty rumor being circulated on the gold internet?"

Obviously just a nasty rumour circulating amongst nutters on the internet. Being an insider who is clearly told what she can and can't say on the subject of Gold by TPTB, she obviously has the inside info that all that Gold for Oil stashed away over the years in Iraq and other 'nameless' Middle Eastern Oil producrs will soon be liberated by the Free Forces of the West, flooding the market, crashing the POG back down where it belongs, and it is clearly not in anyone's interest investing precious FRD notes in such an antiquated relic. Isn't that obvious to all?

Eleanor of Aquitaine

(04/24/2003; 10:18:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101827)

Look at the Dollar Drop!!!

We are below .98 threshhold - what does this mean???

Belgian

(04/24/2003; 10:20:24 MDT - Msg ID: 101828)

@ Ari and WAC

The rand not in sync with its dollar/euro-exchange rate and POG since the december ATL of the rand with corresponding POG=271$.

1/ Both of your probable explanations are the ones, we Goldphiles, are wishing for. Positive for the Goldaffair as a whole and certainly not to be excluded, now or in a nearby future.

2/ The rand ex.r. and POG went out of sync, due to over-stretching or lag-time ? A neutral of course. Rand/POG adjust to each other (rand-decline or POG-rise) and the phenomenon is classified as non-relevant ?

3/ The worst scenario : "THEY" want "THEM" to sell forward, again !? Strengthening the rand (miningcosts up) with contained POG = Hedge or die (become profitless) ?

Maybe to please Iran/Saudi Arabia with more underground Gold for underground oil ? Both oil-producers behaved nicely with the POO and must be rewarded with more Gold!?
It will take some time before Iraq will be able to pump enough oil... to become an OPEC challenger.

Note that the Iranian minister foreign affairs, warned the US not to cross the (red) borderline with Iraq, after he had a chat with D.de Villepin. This, after Rumsfeld warned Iran not to interfere with the liberated Iraqi shi'ites.

May we conclude that tensions are rising ?

CoBra(too)

(04/24/2003; 10:39:30 MDT - Msg ID: 101829)

ZAR - @ Belgian

My 2 cents to your Rand appreciation question would be that the ZAR has been at the receiving end of a Carry Trade - maybe even a $ carry trade.

Borrow 'cheap' US Dollars for little IR, leverage it to the max and receive 11% ZAR IR and pocket the difference scott free. The appreciation in the relatively small ZAR market will be compensated by the depreciation in the US Dollar?

As always the Johnny come latelies will pay the price. Guess the ZAR may have gone as far as it can and may be set up for a big fall... while the mega derivative players will be looking to milk the next cow on greener pastures.

Probably my take is not even worth a Groschen!

cb2

@ Sector - Hey Mike did appreciate your latest post and thanks, man.

Zhisheng

(04/24/2003; 11:37:41 MDT - Msg ID: 101830)

Up Into the Close!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1The dollar is about 98.22 at the time of this post, in continuation of its fundamental downward trend. Gold closed at 334.55.

This is equivalent to gold at 328.60 with the dollar at 100. The last time the dollar was 100 was on April 15, when gold closed at 324.70.

Gandalf the White

(04/24/2003; 12:15:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101831)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ---- POG CONTEST UPDATE !!

A CALL TO CONTEST!!!

COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
---

FYI

PREVIOUS Days GC3M Settlement prices were:
4/21/03 HIGH = $334.5 low = $327.6 Settle = $333.9 Change +$6.3 OI 4/18/03 = 109,944 contracts.
4/22/03 HIGH = $336.8 low = $332.4 Settle = $334.8 Change +$0.9 OI 4/21/03 = 109,484 contracts.
4/23/03 HIGH = $335.6 low = $331.5 Settle = $331.9 Change -$2.9 OI 4/22/03 = 106,807 contracts.
4/24/03 HIGH = $335.5 low = $331.4 Settle = $335.1 Change +$3.2 OI 4/23/03 = 103,404 contracts.

AND Sir is now the "King of the Hill "
---

LISTING of Entries (Decending Values) as of THURSDAY, 4/24/03, 12:00 (HIGH NOON) Denver Time !

**** $367.8 **** Moegold (04/22/03; 11:12:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 101695)

**** $354.4 **** Goldbug 1 (04/21/03; 22:20:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 101679)

**** $353.9 **** Eleanor of Aquitaine (04/22/03; 12:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101701)

**** $351.3 **** goldquest (04/21/03; 20:16:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 101670)

**** $351.0 **** mikal (4/23/03; 09:27:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101748)

**** $350.0 **** Zhisheng (04/22/03; 13:36:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 101709)

**** $347.5 **** VanRip (04/22/03; 17:31:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 101721)

**** $345.6 **** steady (04/23/03; 17:07:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 101772)

**** $345.0 **** Clink! (04/22/03; 06:07:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 101690)

**** $343.3 **** Nakajima (04/22/03; 08:17:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101692)

**** $342.1 **** slingshot (04/22/03; 23:52:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 101738)

**** $340.3 **** makcumka (04/21/03; 20:42:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101673)

**** $338.5 **** cockerel1 (4/23/03; 13:23:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 101753)

**** $338.1 **** pilgrims_gold (4/23/03; 13:44:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101754)

**** $337.0 **** Sundeck (4/24/03; 05:59:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 101817)

**** $336.6 **** Gondolin (4/24/03; 10:01:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 101826)

**** $334.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (4/24/03; 09:49:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 101824)

**** $332.7 **** J-Bullion (4/23/03; 14:41:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101758)

**** $326.5 **** Topaz (04/22/03; 04:31:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 101689)

===
LET the POG CONTEST CONTINUE !!

<;-)

Gandalf the White

(04/24/2003; 12:18:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101832)

OOPS --- The PRESENT "KING of the HILL" is ---------

Sir Lothar of the Hill People ---- OF COURSE !!
<;-)

TownCrier

(04/24/2003; 12:26:40 MDT - Msg ID: 101833)

Have you gotten your daily dose of MK's QuickNotes?

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlClick link. Scroll right. A good habit to form. Like breakfast.

For navigation purposes, you can always find the link at any time of day both on the home page and in the upper right of the mini sitemap atop each of our pages.

R.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/24/2003; 12:42:18 MDT - Msg ID: 101834)

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

Marie Ballard Ext 106

We look forward to your inquiry.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/24/2003; 12:46:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101835)

Government sending mixed signals (see url below)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030423/economy_treasury_dollar_1.html

Gold Today!

Because the phrase "strong dollar policy" is sounding anemic.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.
How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

TownCrier

(04/24/2003; 12:59:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101836)

The ups and downs of Iraq's money

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=201&feed=reu§ion=news≠ws_id=reu-l24292733&date=20030424&alias=/alias/money/cm/nwBAGHDAD, April 24 (Reuters) - It may not be an exact science but the price at which huge wads of Iraqi dinars change hands for U.S. dollars has become a measure of public confidence on the streets of Baghdad.

..."People need to buy to eat, so now dollars are coming (into the market)," said Haider Kashin, head of an exchange business with three employees, clutching a fistful of dollars.

Exchange dealers, some of them armed although the looting and chaos that followed the fall of Saddam Hussein has eased, said many Iraqis had stocked up with food and other supplies before the war.

...In a sign of the chaotic times, dealers said the rates they quoted applied only to 250-dinar bills, which are printed with purple and pale blue ink.

They were selling 10,000-dinar banknotes, which are pink, at a weaker rate -- 2,300 to 2,500 dinars per dollar -- because they were more likely to have been stolen during recent looting of the central bank.

..."Will you take my money?" the 42-year-old woman pleaded, but a garlic vendor refused.

"Now the money is not recognised any more. What will I say to the children?" she said.

-------(see url)-------

What CAN she say to them? As they grow older they will always remember this hard lesson from their youth that paper money can function one day and fail the next. They will not be caught again without some amount of gold on hand.

Call Centennial because you are among the rare people who can learn from the trials and mistakes of others.

R.

TownCrier

(04/24/2003; 13:11:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101837)

United States getting acclimated to the changing face of its money

http://washington.bizjournals.com/washington/stories/2003/04/21/daily30.htmlHEADLINE: The Treasury's shiny new nickel

Most of us have never seen a nickel other than the one with Thomas Jefferson on the front and Monticello on the back. We will soon.

President Bush has signed a bill authorizing the Secretary of the Treasury to change the designs of 5-cent coins issued in 2003, 2004 and 2005 to commemorate the bicentennial of the Louisiana Purchase and the Lewis and Clark expedition.

...U.S. Mint spokesman Sharon McPike says they hope to begin producing the new nickel late this year...
------(see url)-----

Successive paper bill changes, dollar coin changes, quarter changes, now the nickel.

It is easy to get set in your ways, but often the difference between success and failure hinges on how well you can adapt to change in your environment. It's a skill you can learn, and these are baby steps. How well do you handle change?

Call the friendly brokers at USAGOLD-Centennial for stabilizing piece of timeless financial bedrock amid the swirling seas of change.

R.

TownCrier

(04/24/2003; 13:35:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101838)

Belgian, on the rising rand

----------"3/ The worst scenario : "THEY" want "THEM" to sell forward, again !? Strengthening the rand (miningcosts up) with contained POG = Hedge or die (become profitless)?"------------

That is a very astute assessment. I would offer this countermeasure proposal if that risk to employ hedging were indeed coming to bear. In order to preserve the future integrity of the gold market the miners are trying to feed into, rather than hedging their gold with forward sales, they should instead hedge the rand/dollar exchange rate. Thus, there would be less production of paper gold, and more paper paper!
:-)

I'm just offering a soggy thought as a minnow in deep waters.

PS. I am glad you confirmed president Prodi's comment to be significant about the separated "treasury" and "portfolio".

R.

TownCrier

(04/24/2003; 13:46:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101839)

Fed adds $11.001 billion to nation's banking system today

As the market in fed funds was well behaved at the FOMC target rate of 1.25 percent, the Fed trading desk was determined to keep it there. On behalf of the Reserve System the NY Fed Bank particpated in open market operations with 28-day repurchase agreements to add $4.001 billion, and overnight repos to add $7 billion.

Is it prudent to worry overmuch about risks of politically unpalatable deflation when the Fed chairman himself boasts there is no "meaningful limit" to the Fed's power to inject money into the economy.

Awash in a sea of dollars, call Centennial for a diversification into gold so that you may find rest from endlessly treading water.

R.

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 13:50:02 MDT - Msg ID: 101840)

From The Mailbag

This comes in courtesy of Eric Fry at Daily Reckoning:

"Over the long term, stocks have returned about 10% a year and have always rewarded the patient portfolio," observes Barron's Michael Santoli. "But like the Bible verse promising a life span of three score and 10 years, it's a rough guideline describing a broad pattern, not a rule applicable to every time and place. And, unfortunately, unlike human life expectancy, the expected returns from stocks are likely to be lower in the years to come.

"From 1926 through 2000," Santoli continues, "the Standard & Poor's 500 and its predecessor indexes generated annualized profits of 10.7%...[However,] according to recent work by Ibbotson Associates, 4.6 percentage points of the 10.7% return through 2000 came from dividends. Another 3.1% of equity market gains can be attributed to inflation...Together, then, dividends and the salutary effect of inflation on earnings delivered more than 70 cents of every dollar of wealth produced by stocks in the 75 years through 2000...The best 20-year period for stocks over bonds came in 1941-61, during which equities returned 16.9% a year."

Not coincidentally, stocks yielded 7% in 1941 and sold for less than 9 times earnings. Little wonder that stocks rewarded investors handsomely over the subsequent 20 years...And the only thing an investor had to do to reap such ample rewards was to buy U.S. stocks immediately after the attack on Pearl Harbor and continue holding them throughout the second World War, Korean War and Cold War...nuthin' to it!

"Perhaps the most dramatic hindrance to those betting on a recurrence of historical equity returns is stocks' vastly elevated valuation," Santoli winds up. "The multiple of the previous year's earnings...averaged about 15 for the 75-year span. Today, the market sits at 31 times 2002 results."

But perhaps corporate earnings will accelerate rapidly, thereby lowering P/E ratios to attractive levels. Dream on, says Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach. "The dream merchants are hard at work peddling the tale of another economic revival," scoffs Roach. "The magic of postwar relief is widely billed as the catalyst...Just as America led the charge to Baghdad, the U.S. economy is now presumed to lead the way to global recovery...To me, this is a leap of faith of Herculean proportions...global imbalances have now reached the point where another burst of U.S.-led growth would be inherently destabilizing.

Black Blade: I have pointed this out in the past but it appears that Michael Santoli has had an epiphany. He is a frequent guest on CNBC (today too in fact). He rightfully points out that dividend yields have fallen to nearly nothing and that valuations are absurdly high. Given the dollar weakness, as well as the soaring account and budget deficits that are screaming higher to unheard of levels on a daily basis it only stands to reason that returns on stocks (as measured by the indices) will be negative and even more so with the ravage of time and inflation. The economy is in deep trouble folks and it's not going to get any better. There is no time like the present to lock in an insurance position for investment portfolios with an accumulation program of Gold and Silver.

Reading Townies Iraqi currency post below made me think of Japanese in time waving stacks of worthless Yen with the same cries of despair. It is no wonder that physical gold buying interest remains strong in the Far East.

JemeJordan

(04/24/2003; 13:55:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101841)

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/Still thinking about making about that Gold investment? Dont think to long, Tick tick tick tick !

Buongiorno!

(04/24/2003; 14:11:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101842)

Free Willie -- 101790--"What could Bush, or anyone else, do to deflect the Euro attack"..

Thank you for adding a bit of focus to this forum. It has been too much a springboard for America-bashing. The following things would help our dollar, IMHO.

FOREIGN POLICY--find areas where we can economize and bring troops home. (Japan, Korea, Germany?) Lots of balance-of-trade bucks there are carried as "foreign aid" on the books. If we must intervene as the world's policeman, (Bosnia, Iraq) , find a way to make these operations self-funding--or stay home. Enforce our own borders, and if the rest of the world wants to go to hell and blame us for it--let 'em go straight to hell!

ECONOMICS--I read where our economy is about 75% "services", and 25% production, and getting worse. (Hope this is wrong, seems about right--anyone?) We must reverse the flow of American production offshore. NAFTA, unions, stupidity...all to blame. The trouble with "service-based economy" is that services have high price-elasticity and if someone does not want to pay, you may not have work! Balance of payment numbers are just gwad-awful, and we must improve--not just by weakening the dollar--we must produce more useful goods and earn our way.

TAXES--if we wish to become more euro-wellfare-statist, high taxes, low growth --we can do that, but I would resist. Let us lower taxes and put the great creative energies of this country to work! Get useless government agencies off the back of industry. We must compete with unregulated, dollar-an-hour, third world manufacturing. Not easy, but we must find a way.

ETHICS--we must clean up our act. The system may well have imploded with Enron, MCI, and others not yet known. Capital markets are based upon a certain level of trust and we may have lost that....

EURO--don't know that it has to be an either-or situation with the dollar. Is there not plenty of trade room for more than one kind of paper--anyone?

SUMMARY--If the above really could be done, we wouldn't need all our gold, now would we? Therefore, I buys me gold, and joins Free Willie in ....."I would like a place where the Constitution plays a nominal role..." Well said, my friend. Chaos does not help. (If my remarks have offended anyone--"Mi dispiache".) Ciao, Buongiorno

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 14:28:16 MDT - Msg ID: 101843)

NYSE CHEATING IS NOTHING NEW By JOHN CRUDELE

http://www.nypost.com/business/74164.htm
Snippit:

April 24, 2003 -- PROFESSIONAL traders are getting a big kick out of the investigation now under way into New York Stock Exchange specialists. "It's shocking. Just shocking. Specialists are crooks," said one trader doing his best - but not very good - imitation of Claude Rains as the police captain in the Bogart movie "Casablanca."

The last time something like this happened, says another trader, was over at the Nasdaq. "They didn't stop it. They made us take another exam to see how the market-makers were ripping us off. And the specialists laugh and move into bigger houses in Florida." Why are specialists only now coming under scrutiny?

My guess is that with the market's poor performance these past three years, the pros are less willing to tolerate the specialists' skim. So they complained, and you know how it goes - the NYSE has to be shocked, shocked to find this stuff happening.

Black Blade: Exactly!!! As I pointed out in a recent DMR, this is very common and the practice known as "front-running" is an open secret on Wall Street. I for one am surprised (or is that "Shocked") that the NYSE is even looking into the practice as they rarely enforce their own rules anyway. After recent insider and accounting scandals with the obligatory "perp walks", I never thought I would see anyone called in on the carpet to answer for "front-running". It truly is a case of ""It's shocking. Just shocking" as the police captain in the movie Casablanca would say (funny that was my exact thought when the investigation was announced) � many here of course know what this is but for those who don't. In the movie the police captain is informed of illegal gambling in the nightclub and he remarks that it is "It's shocking. Just shocking that there is gambling in this place" as he receives his winnings from a nights worth of gaming. Yes, I find it funny as I think of NYSE chairman Grasso as that police captain when he puts on that "serious face" for the cameras and states that he will do something (what exactly no one really knows). I guess I too am "Shocked!", but only because this has gone on since day one and only now some one appears to be concerned.

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 14:37:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101844)

World Bank warns of Sars effect

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2971843.stm
Snippit:

The deadly Sars virus and the aftermath of the war in Iraq are likely to knock almost one-sixth off economic growth in Asia this year, the World Bank has warned.

Black Blade: Well here it is � just as I said � the "SARS Effect" is the new excuse.

Socrates964

(04/24/2003; 14:38:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101845)

Sagging HUI...

does v poor gold share price action today herald another bashing of POG tomorrow? This is getting tedious.

Technically May should be a very strong month.

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 14:50:29 MDT - Msg ID: 101846)

Execs don't get it; they get rich

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascitystar/business/5700537.htm
Snippit:

Put more real people on corporate boards. Real, as in those who live paycheck to paycheck. Real, as in most of the work force. Current boards, made up of fellow executives and rich folk, just don't get it. How else to explain their continued giveaways to top executives and continued takeaways from employees? The old argument about having to pay big bucks for top talent just doesn't wash anymore. In too many recent cases, that "top talent" hasn't proved its worth, and workers have suffered for it -- financially and emotionally.

Black Blade: I agree. For the most part corporate CEOs and board members are nothing more than "front men" who, unfortunately, plunder a company for self enrichment at the expense of shareholders and employees. Far too often they are rewarded for running a company into the ground. I have seen so many companies go tits up only to have the employees and shareholders grabbing their ankles while executives get paid off and get hefty bonuses. Amazingly bankruptcy judges are so gullible that they let these buffoons get away with it. Hell I could run a company into the ground with the best of them � just gimme a shot. I could use a few $million and I could wreck a company faster and more devastatingly than the pros.

Ah, maybe not, at least I have a conscience.

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 14:55:12 MDT - Msg ID: 101847)

Socrates964

Sometimes gold stock action does precede the POG and sometimes not. It could be just some profit taking ahead of tomorrows quarterly GDP report and that leaves a few people nervous as no one really knows what the numbers will look like as recent data has been confusing for many. Some risk averse players simply want to "wait and see". Long term the outlook for gold is very strong and for the dollar it is very weak (for all the reasons already given).

- Black Blade

Gandalf the White

(04/24/2003; 14:59:29 MDT - Msg ID: 101848)

NOT to worry Sir Socrates964

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!b50!g10!e5!a!h.02,.20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lo14!Lv25!Lw25!Lr14]This chart tells the REAL STORY !
<;-)

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 15:03:50 MDT - Msg ID: 101849)

Tariq Aziz Captured

Just over the wire from CNBC is news (a rumor?) that Iraqi foriegn minister Tariq Aziz has been captured. Some one goofed - this type of news is supposed to be released during trading hours so the Lemmings can get excited and push stocks higher. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 15:20:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101850)

Toughest Grading Curve

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/3843822.html
Snippit:

"We're looking at dismal times," said Camille Luckenbaugh, a spokeswoman for the National Association of Colleges and Employers. A recent survey by the group found that more than 40 percent of the employers plan to cut back on hiring this year compared with 2002. The outlook appears best for graduates seeking work in the service sector, while those seeking positions with manufacturing companies, the government or nonprofit sectors face the hardest time, she said.

Black Blade: Isn't McDonalds and Kentucky Fried Chicken in the service sector? Hmmm�

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 16:19:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101851)

Crowd Returns To Chinatown Bank

http://www.nbc10.com/news/2153038/detail.html
Snippit:

PHILADELPHIA -- Customers were back in line at dawn Thursday as a Chinatown bank braced for the second day of a bank run. Fears of financial problems sent hundreds of people rushing to the bank Thursday demanding their money. Few in the crowd, waiting to withdraw their savings or empty their safe-deposit boxes, spoke English, further complicating the situation. Some customers also wore facial masks as a protective measure against SARS. Managers at Abacus' Philadelphia branch insisted that the bank is solvent and pleaded with customers to go home, but were met with either angry shouts or stony silence from patrons who refused to budge from a block-long line. The facility in Philadelphia ran out of cash shortly after 12:00 p.m. Wednesday. By 4 p.m., another $1 million in cash arrived at the bank from the Federal Reserve. But people were still waiting at 5:30 p.m. when the bank closed. Police handed out numbered tickets to those in line so that when the bank reopened Thursday morning they don't have to go to the end of the line. "Everyone's nervous," said Kyon Kong, of Philadelphia. "There are rumors. People want their money."

Black Blade: The old Chinese curse � "may you live in interesting times".

Off to the gym!

R Powell

(04/24/2003; 16:26:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101852)

Gold, gold, gold ...has it been sold......

And even if it has, on paper, will it really leave the vaults??

Quoting Aristotle from yesterday's 101776......

"While I'm rolling through the area, have sector ask himself a question about his telltale derivative smoking gun stats from the BIS that he insists are all representative of claims on Gold from the CBs of the world. That's putting it mildly. Sector has actually insisted that the derivative positions are evidence of Gold already gone from the vault. Sheeeeeeesh. First of all, nothing says the CBs are involved as counterparties in those reported positions. Strike one.

Let's look closer. When for example, let's say... a *mining* company decides to hedge some of its production (sounds wild but what the heck, it's been known to happen, right?) back in the good ol' days, they might do it with forward sales. I know, I know, a wild stretch of the imagination , but bear with me.

So when the commercial banks report to their overseeing CBs, and as its all compiled within the BIS stats, it would seem to me that the bullion operations branches of the commercial banks have only a fiat payment obligation (a "fiat forward" as the counterposition to the miners' "Gold forward") and the miners have a bullion delivery obligation -- both of which are independent of the CBs. It's also possible the obligations are netted out or settled with equally papery instruments, and that's *still* independent of the CBs. Strike two."

*******

I couldn't agree more with Aristotle here and stated almost exactly the same on 2/18/03 in post 97920. Yes, the gold may have a lien against it but is it physically gone? The lien is a dollar lien which may allow the banks to buy back anytime before a set delivery date. Even if it is not convenient to repurchase at the delivery deadline, most such forward deals can be rolled forward.

I tip my hat to all the GATA investigators and researchers but there seems to be a fundamental lack of knowledge concerning how the futures markets work. It is almost all settled in fiat. I believe a great deal of the gold carry trade was also settled with fiat with gold being the anchor through which very low interest costing capital could be raised for investment purposes.

This whole question is very similar to a discussion in which the real meaning or a workable definition of the "notational value" of outstanding derivatives was in question. Imho, any close to accurate value of one's derivative position must be a net value. It is not at all uncommon to be both long and short at the same time. On 4/15/03 the Non-Commercials held 20,057 contracts listed in the COT as "spreading". What is the notational value of these 20,057 contracts?

How many of us own our homes free and clear? How many of us live in houses that are "sold" to a mortgage lender. Our house, if mortgaged, has a lien on it. However, we never intend to "deliver" our homes to the lender and the mortgage lenders do not intend upon taking delivery, ever. Even if we default on the payments and are forced to vacate, the lender still does not want our physical house. It will be again transfered to another owner and everything settled on paper. Perhaps the same bank will again be "sold" the house by the new owner initiating a new mortgage. The same is true of most physical gold transactions.

Even though the banks are claiming as an asset the gold which may indeed have a lien upon it does not mean that the gold is gone or that it will ever be delivered. It just proves that banks are up and current with all the phony Pro-forma bookkeeping.
Thoughts?
Rich

Topaz

(04/24/2003; 16:58:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101853)

@GS...."flation"

The feeling one gets after flailing into "tiger" (the Cat)...particularly after dishing out a good dose of "medicine" to the Kiddies is, well, euphoric.
This alone should lure you into the DIS camp GS! (smile)

Just watch the Bond Yields...As Joe the Jute points out, Fiat is prone to debasement on a grand scale, try to picture yourself as a 100Yr-old Wealth-preserver, investing as best you can to match or better this debasement in real terms. Most wealth fails dismally, and it is a reflection of lack of investment opportunities that is seen in the T-Yields. Too much Money in too few Hands.
The "T's" have been in a 10Yr decline...hence DIS.
"D" otoh is/will be manifested when Futures are discounted to Cash...an "EVENT" rather than a trend and "Hyper-I" will in all probability be the effect.
I agree... the terminology doesn't reflect the reality.

Belgian

(04/24/2003; 17:13:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101854)

@ Towncrier

Many miners do hedge their currency...but their AngloAmerican bankers have their fingers in the Goldpie !
Us knows us...the establishment...the club....! With us or out.

FreeWillie #101825 : The dollar "was" ment to be as good as Gold. Americans were not allowed to possesses Gold-Wealth-Property for 40 years. 1971, Gold window closed.
None of the enormous amounts of dollars will return home.
The whole world is "selling" to America, not buying.
FW, I wouldn't mind a dollar-reserve, again as good as Gold. I just don't see it happen after all these years of systemic dollar-Debt creation. The globe has been dollarized and made all other currencies a dollar-derivative. That's how the dollar-system has worked and expanded all over the place. Impossible to make it as good as Gold, again, simply by marking US goldreserves to market. The trade deficit is imo irreversable for as long as the dollar remains strong against the "real" producers of goods and services. Dollar hegemony was only possible because the dollar wasn't as good as Gold anymore. How can one reverse such a systemic logic ?

Before the 1971 event, De Gaulle didn't want the dollar anymore and took almost all the Gold from the US treasury.
With the closing of the gold window, the dollar kissed Gold goodby . And today the dollarization of the world has the ambition to go on, relentlessly. Most probably part of "The Project" ?

I wish that A/FOA could guide us again in these troubled times. Sir Douglas...Help !

Topaz

(04/24/2003; 17:24:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101855)

...whatsmore GS,

Imho all commentators/economists fall into the trap of applying yesterdays solutions to tomorrows problems and they, it would seem, are doomed to fail.

R Powell

(04/24/2003; 17:56:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101856)

Topaz // Leigh

Topaz: You just said (101853)......

"D" otoh is/will be manifested when Futures are discounted to Cash...an "EVENT" rather than a trend and "Hyper-I" will in all probability be the effect.

**********

You stated this while discussing definitions of "flations". May I ask if it is also your opinion that this will happen, specifically, is the market just waiting for the "Event"? And, thereafter, how probable is the "Hyper-I" and how quickly? I know none of us has clarvoyance, your best guess please. I'm thinking of all this as a trigger for the return of "Bigfloat" and with Hamilton's chart of POG measured in huge numbers in mind.

Also, thanks for your constant info and opinions on bonds, returns, treasuries, etc. I watch for them as I need to increase my knowledge and they seem to be the main focus of your interest. Do you trade them?

**********

Lady Leigh, I have long believed that you have sources of information not available to the common folk but can't decide if you are pulling my leg about Golden Earring?
Is not such knowledge beyond even Gandalf's powers?
Rich

Bulldog

(04/24/2003; 18:46:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101857)

Lurkers a time act

I have been a physical gold buyer for the last few years. I bought most of my gold at less than $U.S. 300 and my silver at less than $5. To those of you who are disgruntled by the SM, owning gold and silver IMHO, is a no brainer. What is value today? When Centennial sends you the first bullion purchase. you cannot resist the tactile impression. This is the first time you have actually held wealth in your hand.

When Ari says, "gold, get you some"; get you some. We can discuss the geo-economic reasons for where CNN tells us where we are, but the fact remains, there will never be such an opportunity as now to buy precious metals. Accept no paper, be responsible enough to take charge of your life and your savings. When the manipulation of the market implodes, PM's will not be valued against any fiat currencies. Sometimes you just have to digest the information here and put your money where your mind is. I got a helluva rush when gold went to $390. I will never be a seller at these prices. This is a time to accumulate.
Gold, get you lots!

Topaz

(04/24/2003; 18:52:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101858)

Hey Rich.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Ctnxy%2Cfvxy%2Cgcj3.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=7&go.y=11No I don't trade Bonds Sir...Physical in possession...was tempted to get into ZAR Bonds a while back but couldn't bring myself to offload my Gold, Ha!
There is a VERY interesting confluence developing that MAY trigger the EVENT of which I speak, ie: a weakening $ and sharply declining Bond Yields, coupled with what SHOULD be the ECB's move back to E320 Gold.
With the cost of carrying $Bonds rising as the Dollar weakens (Capital preservation component).. we might expect to see a nett negative Yield in the order of 4.75% (Long). This will qualify as the medium term "Triple-Bottom" imo.

"Big-Float" ...dunno!... not an issue, there's nowhere big enough to cope with it yet...maybe later, the manifestation of above should see $Cash (index) RISING big-time.

As an amateur Rich, I'm likely to be totally off-base however the past 18mth's patterns would suggest the prognosis is as valid as any.

Cheers Mate.

Leigh

(04/24/2003; 19:05:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101859)

R Powell

Hey, Rich -- of course I'm just kidding!! As far as I know, there has never been anyone on any of the forums with the handle Golden Earring. The name is still available for Maria...she certainly fits the bill.

Please don't ascribe any special powers of information-gathering to me; I'm the most ordinary of military wives and homeschool moms. Thanks for the compliment, though!

makcumka

(04/24/2003; 19:23:03 MDT - Msg ID: 101860)

Thank you

I would like to thank all of you who post here. New blood or old, you are providing the information, insight, and plain old common sense when it comes to determining the role of gold in these "interesting tmes" (c) BB.

Having gotten into the market with a goal of investment and the benefits from the gold going "to the moon", my outlook on the subject has dramatically changed. In my mind, there is not a price that could be established for 1 oz. of metal. But, there is a value. And there is a Grand Canyon of philosophy, understanding and individual belief between the two. I hope that the good people at CPM get more business from people buying than form people selling, which, no matter the price, benefits all of us.

Value before price. makcumka.

sector

(04/24/2003; 20:20:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101861)

2,600 tonnes "Left the Vaults" in the UK/US export category

The more opposition to this HM Customs facts, the more.....suspicious readers should be of the true nature of the fact challengers.

A shipment receipt is a shipment receipt.

To raise an argument over whether shipment receipts are really export gold moving out of vaults is indicative of the truth stretch required by the numerous gold cartel apologists which seem to now dominate this board.

As for "...derivatives" at the BIS. A forward sale is not a derivative. It is a forward sale. Title changes hands on a defined market.

The typical change the subject, ranting only serves to sink the fools who keep trying to convince readers here that there is still 33,000 tonnes of cb gold that may be dropped on the market tomorrow. It isn't true.

It depresses some that these facts are in the market place and that they have helped to raise the gold price.

Finally, choose the side that is happy that gold is going up and works to make it go higher and forever dump those that are unhappy about rising gold.

This will be my final post.

silvercollector

(04/24/2003; 20:33:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101862)

sector

DO NOT LEAVE.

Simply said, your input provides balance which at this critical juncture would be greatly appreciated.

Please separate the 'gold apologists' from your 'gold buddies'!

21mabry

(04/24/2003; 20:52:12 MDT - Msg ID: 101863)

Sector

Sector, Keep posting people like myself who are just starting down this road need all the help we can get.Just take some time and get away then come back refreshed.

alkahulik

(04/24/2003; 21:00:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101864)

**** $340 ****

It's obvious that gold will close Mon Apr 28th at $340.
I have a chart from the future and it shows it closing right there at $340. It's a long term chart. Bought it at a garage sale a few months ago. My wife almost threw it away, says she doesn't believe in such nonsense. Nonsense. Ha!! Just watch.

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 21:18:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101865)

Economy Still Sags, Say the Fed Banks

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A26429-2003Apr23.html
Snippit:

The swift military success in Iraq did little to boost U.S. economic activity this month, according to the Federal Reserve's latest survey of nationwide economic conditions. Only the Richmond Fed bank, whose district includes the Washington-Baltimore region, reported continued modest growth in March and early April in the report, known as the "beige book" for the color of its cover. Six of the Fed's 12 regional banks reported conditions as "still mixed or soft." Five others said the pace of growth had slowed since the previous survey in December and early January.

Black Blade: Doesn't look good but there sure is a lot of "spin" to make the economy appear better than it is. Still the short term rate is expected to remain unchanged when the FOMC meets on May 6. Amazingly some are claiming that the economy is improving. There are a few "minor" problems though like declining "real" earnings (although "pro forma" earnings are rising), the current account and budget deficits are soaring to stratospheric levels, "real" unemployment is rising (cost cutting), etc. In a word - "grim".

steady

(04/24/2003; 21:28:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101866)

To raise an argument over whether shipment receipts are really export gold moving out of vaults is indicative of the truth stretch required by the numerous gold cartel apologists which seem to now dominate this board.

yep sector the heat is being turned up. do not think for a second that the nsa, cia, fbi, homeland security do not have a division or two dedicated to the internet forms. there job, message discipline in annonomys voices. it started with daniel druff, where has he been after blazing this board for what 2 weeks then gon. long enough to do his tour of dutyad move on to a different alias. ah the wonders of the net, they are out there they are working all angles to maintain message discipline. do not be fooled by illuson gold is honest money!

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 21:32:41 MDT - Msg ID: 101867)

The Non-Confirming DOW

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B156E7313%2D7422%2D4D40%2D9D5D%2DEEA5C554D656%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters is one who is worried. On Tuesday, after the Dow closed just 37 points below its March 21 high, Russell wrote: "So you have to ask the question, if business is improving, then why has the Dow failed day after day, week after week to better its March 21 high? ... That's the question that I keep asking. And that's the question that the stock market is asking." And after Wednesday's close, Russell added: "Can the refusal of the Dow alone [to close above its March closing high] reverse the course of the entire stock market? And my answer is 'Yes, a Dow non-confirmation can reverse the trend.' The Dow is still valued at about 25 percent of the entire U.S. stock market. The thirty stocks in the Dow are what I term 'backbone of the economy' stocks. What those thirty stocks do or don't do is extremely important." Of course, the Dow could resolve this non-confirmation any day by closing above 8,521.97. But it better do so soon if the rally is to be sustainable: According to technicians, the longer it takes for a major market average to confirm a trend, the more suspect that trend is.

Black Blade: Interesting thought. This secular bear market will have suckers rallies as in the past. I see Wall Street pimps and CNBC carnival barkers continuously harp on about the market having "bottomed". Of course they have been saying this for three years running. Abby Jo and Ralph Acampora are among those to screech the same tune lately. Of course their record is nothing to cheer about either. In fact there is nothing in the economic data (well OK, we finally got an increase in durable goods mostly on increased defense spending, but after a war that consumed several thousand smart bombs and missiles what would you expect?), and the overall "real" corporate earnings picture is pathetic at best. The stock market remains grossly overvalued even as share prices have fallen.

Gandalf the White

(04/24/2003; 21:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101868)

The TOWN CRIER has made us a LINK to the UPDATED POG CONTEST !!!!

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlWOWSERS !!! Townie has done it again !
Check out the Link above to see the latest prognostications.
(and see how many times the Wiz can manage to mess it up !)
<;-)

mikal

(04/24/2003; 22:00:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101869)

North Korea and China, Russia and Japan

Just openly speculating on N. Korea's nuclear policy of "defense" and today's weapon admission:

The Bush administration and the Koreans are poles apart and adamant in their positions so far. If the Bush admin. follows through on its promise to keep N.Korea non-nuclear, it must either succeed in ongoing negotiations or bomb the implicated storage, testing, launching and/or manufacturing sites. In the first case, negotiation success, a fair compromise would ensure peace and progress.
Is this likely in today's climate? With today's despots? Bombs away over N. Korea & China would have to respond either militarily or financially and then likely Russia would, at least a token, symbolic act for its strategic partner China? Japan and U.S. economies would be among the hardest hit, followed by the world financial system?
In steps the UN, or some variant, and the latest plan for peace, justice and prosperity for all... at a price? The next stage on the agenda of global occupation?

Zhisheng

(04/24/2003; 22:10:49 MDT - Msg ID: 101870)

Sector

I would be truly sorry to see Sector leave. He is articulate, informative, courteous, and candid.

His thesis that central banks have been manipulating the price of gold by sales and loans, and that their supply is quite likely much reduced, cannot directly be tested without full disclosure by said banks--and that they have mostly refused and continue to avoid.

The realist must ask himself concerning any question of agency: is there substantial motive, is there means, and is there circumstantial evidence? I believe Sector has done good work in establishing all three of these.

Waverider

(04/24/2003; 23:10:40 MDT - Msg ID: 101871)

Sir Sector

Please reconsider. There are many here who learn from you, support you, and hold you in very high esteem. I agree with 21Mabry's suggestion - please contemplate just taking a break and then coming back refreshed. Please don't leave because of a few when it's precisely your insight, wisdom, knowledge, and expertise that we need here - especially those of us still steep in the learning curve. You have done First Class work in bringing information to us regarding CB gold manipulations - Zhisheng articluates it very nicely. And ditto to Steady's post - it seems the dandruff flake has deservedly been given the brush off, but you can usually expect a flake to pop up somewhere else - don't let them get the better of you Sector. Take rest and nourishment and return to us when you feel refreshed. Meanwhile, we will keep your chair warm by the hearth.

Respectfully,
Lady Waverider

All - it's time to rally the Gold troops...please join me in showing Sector a vote of confidence for his continued participation here - all in favor...

Black Blade

(04/24/2003; 23:25:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101872)

Asian Markets Tank

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets are awash in red tonight. Looks like a very negative reaction in the equities markets. Gold holding steady while stocks fall off into the abyss and the US dollar looks a bit shaky.

- Black Blade

bugs

(04/24/2003; 23:27:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101873)

A second for the vote of confidence

Who knows what true motives lie with these messages and personalities, but I will second the Lady's vote of confidence for sector. I also put in a vote of confidence for Ari and his analysis. Productive, constructive disagreement is good and healthy, and I believe we all benefit from the discussion.

-sporter

bugs

(04/25/2003; 00:05:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101874)

gold on radio..

Hello,

Been driving around this week in search of a new place to live in the bay area, California (rental). Yes, I know the economy and tech-sector sucks, but I was fortunate enough to land a decent salary job (for my small world in software Quality Assurance) in the fabled Bubble area.

Indeed, it is a bubble; a mighty one at that. Little toy-box 1200 sq.ft cookie-cutter townhomes selling for minimum 600K. Forget the Greenspan "we don't know a bubble till it's over" thing.

Anyway, while I driving around, flipping through AM Radio I caught some people chatting about Gold ownership. What a trip. The announcer talked about his views about the dollar declining, putting at least 5% of your fiat in physical gold, not paper-gold, etc etc. At first I was shocked at this, hearing this on the radio.

Then, the remainder of the program was basically trying to sell St. Gauden (sp?) gold coins. At one point they even tried to sell some kind of Mesopatamia (sp?), 2000 year old gold coins as some kind of gift deal. Eh? Reminded me of those late-night infomercials.

Finally it devolved into a Christian radio station and preaching and all that.. no big deal, but I quickly flipped it back to Classic Rock.

It caught my ears though..

Waverider

(04/25/2003; 00:16:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101875)

Bugs

Thanks - and really no motives other than like the others, I'd hate to see Sector leave. Sometimes when someone feels like leaving a show of support and appreciation does wonders to rekindle the spirit. That's all. I agree - constructive disagreement and debate is both beneficial and necessary for ideas to nourish and develop and we're extremely fortunate to have so many great minds here on the forum. Cheers,
Waverider

Gandalf the White

(04/25/2003; 00:22:40 MDT - Msg ID: 101876)

See the LINK for the latest POG CONTEST UPDATE !!! <;-)

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThanks to the Town Crier, My Own Webpage !
<;-)

Belgian

(04/25/2003; 02:46:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101877)

@ Sector

I would like you to stay here...because, the things w're discussing here are much TOO IMPORTANT for all of us !
Let us keep on trying to open the correct windows with a scala of different views on the "Future". Remain part of that effort, Sir Bolser.

Topaz

(04/25/2003; 03:08:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101878)

...just a sec, sector!

http://www.stockcharts.com/education/What/ChartAnalysis/triplebottom.htmlCan I also echo the sentiments of those who enjoy your efforts both here and on behalf of Gold. It's indeed the likes of you and your associates that have forced the Gold issue back into the minds of the masses and frankly it's my privilege to share a Forum with you...keep it up Man!...chin, upper-lip, and Posting.

Rich...the links for You... ALL the tech criteria is in place...Time, Volume trends etc. We now watch in awe!

Sundeck

(04/25/2003; 03:11:09 MDT - Msg ID: 101879)

(No Subject)

Sir Sector leaving?

"He is articulate, informative, courteous, and candid."

There you have it! Sir Zhisheng has summarised well.

....

A curious thing about open internet forums like this is that anyone may contribute. One does not need to have proven professional qualifications and community standing to be admitted. Nor is the floor reserved for the invited, the intelligent or the articulate. The floor is open to all: the buffoon and the well-informed, the most generous altruist as well as the most selfish and vindictive of people. All may present - with anonymity and while hidden from view. No body-language for one to judge the degree of openness or malevolence that lies beneath the printed word. No editor to assess, prior to publication, the content for its accuracy, fairness or purpose . Just type the message, hit the button and Splat! ... a deposition from anywhere in the world lands on the table.

A double privilege really.

It's a privilege to be able to compose and publish relatively free of the intimidation associated with other forms of public utterance. And it is a privilege to be able to read, ponder, learn-from and engage-with the contributions of others.

In my time at this castle (mostly spent warming my hands by the fire and gorging on the free fare while watching from the shadows) there have been IMO few knights more "articulate, informative, courteous, and candid" than Sir Sector. There have been others whom I have judged to be less worthy - some benign and some malignant. But while praise is widely accepted, rebuke raises ire. Therefore I say let the praiseworthy be praised and the less worthy be ignored - or, on rare occasion, erased.

:-)

Thank you Sir Sector for your contributions...

BG Bug

(04/25/2003; 05:28:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101880)

Another "Flation"

@ Gold Standard (Message #101818)
You missed my "Flation" idea...... which has been lurking in a small corner of the castle.

BIFLATION

A rise in the prices of essential commodities, and other things normally purchased with cash, due to falling production and massive printing of dollars

at the same time

A fall in the prices of non-commodities (houses, cars, non PM stocks) normally purchased with credit, due to cascading defaults.

BG Bug
.

Kev

(04/25/2003; 06:15:50 MDT - Msg ID: 101881)

Argentina President Elections on Sunday ! Kirchner goes for Gold!

N�stor Kirchner is third in the polls , only 1% behind the numbers 1 and 2 (Ricardo L--pez Murphy & Carlos Menem).

3-13-03
Argentine President Candidate Urges Peso-Gold Link, Herald Says
By Claire Shoesmith

Buenos Aires, March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Nestor Kirchner, seeking to become president of Argentina, will try to return the country to a monetary system where the peso is backed by gold reserves, the Buenos Aires Herald said, citing Kirchner's economics adviser.

The return to a gold standard would be part of a policy involving ``neither dollarization nor multiple currencies,'' the paper cited Kirchner's adviser, Jose Maria Las Heras, as saying.

The policy would aim for the peso's value to eventually converge with a single Mercosur currency, Heras was cited as saying. The Mercosur region includes Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.

Gold prices fell for a third day in London as the dollar strengthened against the euro and equities rose, making the dollar-denominated metal less attractive to European investors.

Kirchner, governor of the Santa Cruz province in Argentina's south, is seeking to defeat rivals including former President Carlos Menem in April 27 presidential elections.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(04/25/2003; 07:26:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101882)

@Kev - Argentina and Gold

Which gold are they going to link to the Peso? Hasn't it all gone to the IMF in the magic 'SWAP' transactions. The gold is physically in Lodon/New York, but it is still on the books of Argie Central Bank.

otish mountain

(04/25/2003; 07:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101883)

Sector

I have always looked forward to your postings, in fact digging though the stacks of paper on my desk one would find some of your views in printed form gleaned from this fine forum.

Since finding this forum I may not be any wiser, but I have been stimuated to think hard and long on the subjects put forth. I am discovering seeking truth and knowledge is a life long endeavor.

Sector, and as well all posters here, you all contribute to my quest and I thank you all.

CoBra(too)

(04/25/2003; 07:50:20 MDT - Msg ID: 101884)

GATA has published an excellent piece of Research

By Mike Bolser, " Fed's repurchase agreements boost
Dow and Dollar index".

Thank you, a case built very well and logically. cb2

21mabry

(04/25/2003; 07:57:37 MDT - Msg ID: 101885)

(No Subject)

Bugs, anytime someone uses religon to try and get your money be suspicous,in most case they will be charlatans. This happens alot with gold, these people have no faith in gold. For them its work the marks then get out of town.

Bizkit

(04/25/2003; 08:16:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101886)

*** $331.00 ****

After taking a verbal beating from the financial press during �Gulf War II� gold seem to be bouncing for one main reason. Let me explain, it's quite simple.

Since nobody found ANY Weapons of Mass Destruction, many people are actually realizing that LOTS of Weapons of Mass Distraction have been used to divert real attention from the MOST DANGEROUS Weapon of Paper Distruction in town (working full power 24/7): The Federal Electronic Printing Press (FEPP). Only one thing stay immune (and can also benefit) from the dreadful menace of the FEPP, and that is GOLD.

As far as Lady Baritroma is concerned, rumors near my ear tell me that she has been selling paper and buy gold since early 2000. She's smarter than anybody guess, and she's actually the first person who dubbed this simple money-bombastic switch the "Trade of The Decade". Obviously she's still spending all her efforts to convince people of the contrary. She's greedy and still not satisfied of her personal Fortknox. She wants more of it and she wants it cheap! Being also a little suspicious and paranoid, she has enslaved (for a few ounces of gold) directly from Iraq a couple of structural engineers (working with chains and the likes) to build a supersecret and superprotected vault where to hide her stash.

21mabry

(04/25/2003; 08:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101887)

(No Subject)

Some of the rhetoric coming out of the administration in regards to the war on Iraq and war on terror, it sounds at times very orwellian to me. I am pretty sure I heard someone in administration say ' we probably will not find any wmd but that will just me he had them' what the heck does that mean. Stuff like that make you glad you have precious metals,these people can and will manipulate people and paper. Sometime I want to scream, we just accept everything we see on tv, most of our nation have become sheeple. You can understand their fear of gold, it makes one independent of the system.

JemeJordan

(04/25/2003; 10:20:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101888)

Gold investing during WWII

Another example was the plight of Jews during World War II. The Jews realized early on the great underlying value of Gold during uncertain economic times. Unfortunately the Nazis systemically striped them of most of their Gold holdings except for the few that were able to stash there Gold in foreign safety deposit boxes. Had they not been striped of their holdings and exterminated by the Nazis there Gold investments would have sustained them nicely.

hiplt

(04/25/2003; 10:24:03 MDT - Msg ID: 101889)

Aristotle/Sector et al

I stumbled into this forum with a reserve of "karma" from a career as a therpist working with families, disadvantaged, drug and alcohol kids etc. (all good stuff)AND a devastated 401K from the "New Paradigm".

The macro process that triggered my awareness was the work of Murhpy, GATA et al. So, to them and you, Sector, thank you. Struggling to find the truth thru those folds of deception and lies is a crazy-making, paranoid-inducing process.

And (not but) at a completely different level, "when wisdom and clarity finally struck like a thunderbolt" was my reading of "Let's Step Through The Looking Glass" by you,Aristotle (see the HOF). You pulled back the curtain far enough for me (a novice) to begin to grasp the obscenity of the paper Gold world and its implications to our collective futures (I was reminded of Goya's "Saturn Eating His Children").

Then again, in #101803, "...Gold obscured in a recklessly spawning forest of Gold-denominated recievables" via your potatoe metaphor.

The experiential-based truth of your words stand of their own accord. For anyone to challenge your authenticity/credentials is folly.

I do admit I must read and re-read you to comprehend the layers. Your bent toward the poetic thru the cynicical voice is supberb. So, my heart felt thanks.

My dearest friend (professional and private) has for years a framed, embrodered quote on his wall:

hiplt

(04/25/2003; 10:26:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101890)

Aristotle/Sector et al

I stumbled into this forum with a reserve of "karma" from a career as a therpist working with families, disadvantaged, drug and alcohol kids etc. (all good stuff)AND a devastated 401K from the "New Paradigm".

The macro process that triggered my awareness was the work of Murhpy, GATA et al. So, to them and you, Sector, thank you. Struggling to find the truth thru those folds of deception and lies is a crazy-making, paranoid-inducing process.

And (not but) at a completely different level, "when wisdom and clarity finally struck like a thunderbolt" was my reading of "Let's Step Through The Looking Glass" by you,Aristotle (see the HOF). You pulled back the curtain far enough for me (a novice) to begin to grasp the obscenity of the paper Gold world and its implications to our collective futures (I was reminded of Goya's "Saturn Eating His Children").

Then again, in #101803, "...Gold obscured in a recklessly spawning forest of Gold-denominated recievables" via your potato metaphor.

The experiential-based truth of your words stand of their own accord. For anyone to challenge your authenticity/credentials is folly.

I do admit I must read and re-read you to comprehend the layers. Your bent toward the poetic thru the cynicical voice is supberb. So, my heart felt thanks.

My dearest friend (professional and private) has for years a framed, embrodered quote on his wall:
"A Cynic is an Idealist in Drag"

Adrianashakes

a nation of one

(04/25/2003; 10:45:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101891)

. .

A cynic can also be someone who sees things for what they are.

There is no real reason to think of the world as a fundamentally pleasant place where everything fits together to make a sugar cube.

About gold, the metal of our concern, it seems to me contracts are pretty well establishing a floor above 330. This is consistent with the idea that previous levels of resistance become levels of support. All the froth of its going to 390 perhaps hasn't changed this principle. The question I have about this tendency, and a number of others, is not whether they exist, but whether they come about as principles having nothing whatever to do with human cognition, or whether they are the result of merely human habits of behavior. If the former, then men and women would be wise to know them and conform to them. If the latter, then men and women would be smart to change them. I for one believe that they constitute manifestations of human action, and that, therefore, people can improve their own success in markets by altering their own behavior to conform less to superstitious perceptions and desires and more to the outcomes imagined in their individual conceptions.

Cometose

(04/25/2003; 12:24:38 MDT - Msg ID: 101892)

Silver

There's an ALLADIN's LAMP bottom formation on SILVER occuring.....and you know what comes out of the end of Alladin's Lamp???? SMOKE which rises straight up ....

It's Friday .....and I'm Just kidding .....
however....VICTOR HUGO says that in markets such as these
when data may or may may not be trusted .....
trade the technicals.....

I would also add ,,,, that if it looks like a duck,
waddles like a duck , quacks like a duck , and smells like a duck , feels like a duck , flies like a duck and ducks like a duck....... it probably is not an EAGLE (no matter how much Wall Street(paid for compulsive liars) pundits claim it is and Eagle)..... it's probably a duck and you may be able to trust your gut on that .....
It may also be open season on DUCKS now: DOW DUCKS < NASDOG DUCKS AND DOLLAR DUCKS......

Sector , you da man !!!!!!!

Cometose

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/25/2003; 12:34:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101893)

The perfect property: Liquid. Portable. No sales tax. No annual property taxes. No upkeep expenses.

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

Buena Fe

(04/25/2003; 12:39:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101894)

spec

may be a false signal, but market pulses/stresses and all things esoteric are suggesting VERY hard times seconds away (possible crash) for DOW/SP while au/hui are set for launch mid next week.

anyone else's siemic readings concure?

maybe some bit political revelation etc?

TownCrier

(04/25/2003; 12:44:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101895)

MK's Gold Commentary & Review

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html
Make this visit a daily habit.

You'll find your snack of QuickNotes in the right-hand column.
-----
In the other columns you'll find these following two notable quotes.

"I am not bound over to swear allegiance to any master, where the storm drives me I turn in for shelter."
-- Horace

"A paradigm shift in the relative valuation of paper and tangible assets is under way. In such a shift, the list of safe havens is short. A new generation of investors, still conditioned by overripe 1990's platitudes extolling paper assets, will discover what a previous generation had learned and forgotten -- the merits of gold." -- John Hathaway

Gandalf the White

(04/25/2003; 12:48:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101896)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA Check the POG CONTEST at LINK !

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlGUESS WHO is STILL "King of the Hill" ?
<;-)

Magister Aurelius

(04/25/2003; 12:56:50 MDT - Msg ID: 101897)

**** $335.3 ****

I have been in great disquiet lately over MK's probing query. My own knowledge being not deep enough to answer and lacking access to Sir Lothar of the Hill People's albino bat guano, I went in search of answers. First, I sought out sources in the major media. There were some interesting theories out there, but anyone with any serious sources looked at me askance and said that the market was just fine and not to pay attention to the barbarous relic. I then went to Maria Baritromo for answers, hoping for at least some candor. In retrospect, barging into her dressing room might have been rude, but I did glean a significant insight from the incident. Maria was forced to admit to her personally owning gold. It was rather difficult for her to hide the fact she was stuffing her braziere with 1 ounce Canadian Maple Leafs. She did impress upon me that silence was necessary upon the subject of gold because the government just couldn't have a panic on its hands. I asked why, and she then introduced me to a foremost government authority.... the Smoking Man from the X-Files. After swearing me to secrecy, with numerous threats upon the lives of myself, my family, and my household pets; he then stated that the government was accumulating gold in order to defeat the alien invasion. He informed me that aliens had invaded us in 1947, but due to their violently allergic reactions to gold, they were unable to take over at first. But now, according to Smoking Man, the aliens have infiltrated the banking system of the US, and have attempted to purge gold from the world. Apparently, emboldened by their success, they even ran one of their own as a candidate for President. I asked who? Smoking man then told me, "You mean you couldn't tell that little Ferengi Ross Perot was an alien???". Ouch. The truth was suddenly revealed! I asked what could be done. Smoking Man said that the mere touch of a gold coin causes violent retching, incapicitation, and irritible bowel syndrome among the alien race and that the government was accumulating gold at an increasing rate in order to have enough. I have finally found the truth.... horrible as it is....

TownCrier

(04/25/2003; 14:06:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101898)

Central Bank Insider

http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/current.htmlIn the talk of an economic/currency union between Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine, in this report you will see some important issues raised in protest by the chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan against use of the Russian Rouble that are somewhat applicable for insights into the larger issue of international dollar versus euro usage.

excerpt:
---------------
He joked, "Well, as you well know, history is always repeating itself -- there is nothing new under the sun." But, more seriously, he added: "What is important for us is to protect our country's interests, and not to be taken advantage of, which was sometimes the case under the Soviet Union arrangements. We have all learned some hard lessons since then, and this new arrangement could be a better one for all the parties involved." He wistfully mused, "We will be the happy members of a much larger organisation."

But, plainly, returning to the rouble is not what he had in mind. As Marchenko said to the Russian Izvestiya newspaper, "The point is that when we are offered to make the Russian rouble our single currency, that actually means delegating a part of the sovereignty of the states to Russia. In exchange for what? For this sole reason such a scenario is not an acceptable one."

Kazakhstan would presumably have no say over the appointment process of the CBR. Furthermore, Marchenko asks, "What if, unexpectedly, a new chairman [of the CBR] carries out a fourfold depreciation, as was the case in 1998, to help exporters?"
-----------

In this report, you will also find a central banker's sure-fire remedy for SARS.

See the url given above for all the goods.

R.

Waverider

(04/25/2003; 14:24:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101899)

VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlSnip:
"Recently there have been some rumblings by those in the anti-gold camp that gold is a hedge against inflation and that inflation is now contained. However, that's not exactly true. Gold responds to dollar strength and "real" interest rates. There are plenty of examples when inflation has decreased and gold has rallied in the last two decades as well as higher inflation and gold slumped. Gold runs counter to the U.S. dollar and "real" interest rates. When "real" interest rates are low or negative the downside risk for gold is insignificant while strength to the upside is wide open. With inflation at an "official" rate of about 3% (the "real" rate is much higher) and low short-term interest rates at a miserly 1.25%, the "real" interest rate is very low or even negative which is supportive of gold. In a desperate move to stimulate the economy the Federal Reserve may overshoot and accidentally create very high inflation far outpacing short-term interest rates."

Black Blade

(04/25/2003; 14:48:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101900)

From The Mailbag

Another sliver of meat comes my way from Bill Bonner at Daily Reckoning:

Our old friend, Amazon.com, is back in the news. The river-of-no-returns stock rose 75% last year...and is up another 35% so far this year. Is AMZN a great stock to own, or what?

'Or what' is our choice. The company is in "make-believe land," writes Bill Fleckenstein. It lost $149 million last year...39 cents per share. If the cost of stock options had been included, it would have lost 60 cents a share. Plus, or rather minus, Amazon still has more than $2 billion in debt.

And yet, investors now gladly pay 79 times anticipated "pro forma" earnings (which can be anything the company wants them to be) for AMZN...just like old times. Yes, just like
1999 - when investors had not a care in the world...and as little sense.

"Yesterday, I was at Hong Kong Airport en route to Tokyo," writes Daily Reckoning friend and contributor Bill Thompson. "A real ghost town and quite bizarre. SARS is real and underrated in its impact on psychology and economics."

Black Blade: I have pounded away on Amazon in the past and I know that Jim Puplava has as well. Don't get me wrong � I like Amazon and they have a good service as I use it myself. However, the company burns through cash at a torrid pace and issues shares to cover on occasion. However, they have never made a profit � well, at least not a "real" profit. They are not alone. "Pro Forma" is the name of the game in this stock market. While the carnival barkers on CNBC tout "great earnings" this quarter, one should keep an eye out for "real" earnings rather than the fantasies spun out by Wall Street pimps and their paid shills.

As far as SARS is concerned, it appears that it now has spread to the Philippines and now Taiwan has isolated a hospital. Soon we may see a reactivation of old "leper colonies" for SARS patients. One problem in China is that no one really knows how bad it is as the government there has covered up the problem for a while until it was too difficult to hide any longer. The health minister and mayor of Beijing paid for this fiasco by losing their jobs. Unfortunately many people fled the capital to escape the growing epidemic and some infected simply carried the virus throughout China. We may hear of outbreaks in several cities and rural areas in coming days/weeks. There is no word of outbreaks in places like India and Bangladesh but if the epidemic spreads there it will be a disaster of epic proportions as the large confined populations will be prime breeding grounds and the virus could spread like wildfire. These countries are ill equipped to handle this type of medical emergency. So far it appears that Canada may have (at least temporarily) contained the SARS outbreak there. At least no new cases have been announced. The WHO has announced that SARS is here to stay like the common cold. That is not what many want to hear as the mortality rate so far has been 6% and some estimate it as high as 10%. Add to that it is possible to be easily re-infected over and over. Obviously the World Bank is concerned enough to announce that SARS may have a negative effect on the economy (no kidding).

Black Blade

(04/25/2003; 14:56:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101901)

Townie - Thanks For The Reminder

I did not see the "CB Insider" until you put the link up. I some how missed it before. Thanks!

"Interesting Times" Indeed!

- Black Blade

J-Bullion

(04/25/2003; 15:07:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101902)

Swiss Gold Sales

Just read the latest column on JSinclair's site. That is classic. I would say 99% of the population does not understand money, fiat money or fractional reserve banking the the inevitable conclusion of it all. "Swiss are happy with their gold sales for a bunch of worthless dollars" Classic stuff.

P.S.

Sector, you can't leave this site! All the plants will die!
Anyway, best of luck to you and hoping you will stay around.

Belgian

(04/25/2003; 15:14:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101903)

@ Buena Fe

The POG - 330$ - zone is of capital importance, when interpreting (technically) all types of charts of Au !
With "zone", I'm even including a probable (not necesarry) overstretching retreat to 300$-290$. So your 330$ figure is indeed a very important one in the midst of the last decade's pattern of Gold (POG). And not only from the technical standpoint but for instance, Belgium's Gold has been sold (???-sorry sector-smile, please) at an average of 330$/Oz in the nineties.

Let me remind you all that a (Prechter) POG vision of sub 200$ has gone to lala-land ! We are looking up, not down, backed by gigantic *GOLDPOSITIVE* fundamentals, presently confirmed by waterproof TA/TI-pictures (POG in $ AND �). What more can a true Goldphile wish for ?

For the time being, Gold's faith is still narrowly connected to the dollar's evolving pattern.

IMVHO, The POG=330$, enormous pivot-level is corresponding with the same pivot-level of the LT dollar-index (UDX) of 100 (we are at 98 now)! As is still my belief that breaking through the UDX level of 100 (done) is an almost 100% guarantee for a further dollar-exchange-rate decline in a final wave *C* from the '85 ATH of 165. This C-wave must/will, go lower than the previous dollar-index-lows of 80 (a tripple 80-bottom was formed during '91 > '95).

Some very simple Fibonacci on UDX ATH of 165 :
165 x 0,618 = 101,97 (pivot-zone)
165 x 0,382 = 63,03 (my target) >>> corresponds with a POG of 538$/Oz wich also corresponds with a Fib. 1,618 times a reversal (511$) of the 412$-253$ engineered decline since 1996.

Yep, OK...this is some of the TA/TI Voodoo stuff and is another way of saying that the 500$-600$ range for POG also corresponds with the "OFFICIAL" (!!!) currency depreciation from 1971 (31$/Oz) onwards. Infla is today 20 times 1971 and 31$ x 20 = 600$...IN A LESS CONTAINED PAPER GOLD MARKET that excludes all other fundamental considerations we have been archiving here at CPM.

POG 330$ corresponds with a CRB of 190/200 (1980-'03 chart).
Possible indication that POG 330$ = a weak price ?

There are 2,5 grams of Gold (10$/gram) in one barril of oil (25$) wich is a high figure that only occured 4 times in the last 3 decades. Normaly there should only be 1 gram of Gold per barril and POG should be 25 x 31,1 = 777,5$/Oz to equal the value of one 25$ barril of oil. This 1 gram Au per barril occured 5 times in the past 3 decades. OPEC and friends seem to be happy with a POO of 22$-28$ (= 684$-870$/Oz on a one gram per barril basis). And today Arabian oil can get Gold at less than halve the fair price when one is of the conviction that the dollar, today is still worth what it was 3 decades ago.

On the political front we can only wonder if and to what extend, a probable NWO is going to affect the dollar and its challengers. All prognostication falls under the chapter of speculation. But there is more than enough reason for the "fear-factor" to show its head.

B.F. I really don't know when POG will shuttle-up. But I'm already in the astronaut's seat and ready for launch.

Buena Fe

(04/25/2003; 15:30:50 MDT - Msg ID: 101904)

Belgian

thanks for the thoughts, i'm strapped into the seat right behind you! ready for anything

lets rumble

Cometose

(04/25/2003; 15:38:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101905)

Amazon.BOMB

I was to post this yesterday before our server went down....
looks like they are down for the count this time....
I had to get another this morning so my son could resume his studies on the internet....

...back to Amazon.... in the analysis and within the Data that Martin Wiess has at his disposal.......

Amazon is trading at 110 time earnings ......When you add in the expense of its options programs for employees that was not expensed ....its trading at 409 times earnings and didn't show a profit at all last year .....hmmmmm ...something sure smells fishy around here.......still.......

Black Blade

(04/25/2003; 15:56:21 MDT - Msg ID: 101906)

Gag reflex: When U.S. cooks books

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascitystar/business/5709286.htm
Snippit:

Those outraged by the accounting shenanigans at Enron, WorldCom and HealthSouth should save some of their outrage for the U.S. government. Although nobody plays the accounting sleight-of-hand game better than Uncle Sam, most average Americans fail to take notice of the deceitful way Washington keeps its books. If federal fiscal mischief were better understood, perhaps fewer folks would worry about budget deficits.

Take, for instance, what's been happening with the national debt numbers. Anyone concerned about federal fiscal fortunes will find them as interesting as any sports box score. For the past several weeks, the table has usually shown the outstanding federal debt as follows: $6,399,975,000,000. This is six trillion, three-hundred-ninety-nine billion, nine-hundred-seventy-five million. This number hasn't changed much, if at all, even though the Treasury has in the meantime reported budget deficits totaling $155 billion for February and March. What's curious is why the national debt wouldn't have registered a similar increase instead of remaining basically unchanged. Well, this is where the farcical accounting gimmickry comes in. What Uncle Sam is doing makes his corporate counterparts look like pikers. They just finagle a few billion bucks here and there. In Washington the machinations run to the hundreds of billions.

If this had happened in the private sector, you can bet some executive suite miscreants would be doing big-time perp walks, with film at six. But then, what else is new? This the same bunch of scammers who claimed more than $550 billion in budget surpluses from 1998 to 2001 even as the national debt was rising $400 billion. Then, after the budget slid back into the red, there was no surplus to ameliorate the shortfalls.

Black Blade: As the old Grey Poupon commercials � "But of course". There is no accountability in Washington DC. Why should there be � after all the whole time the dunderheads touted "Budget Surplus" during the Clinton administration few questioned the lie. But then it was a time when lies were rampant in that administration. The lies continue of course. We only need to look at the BLS stats for unemployment, inflation, and yes - perhaps even today's GDP data. Just count what you want and ignore the rest. Washington's version of "Pro Forma". In a society and a government where lies are a way of life and are preferable to the truth what else would be expected - Go figure.

Black Blade

(04/25/2003; 16:17:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101907)

Primed for a bubble?

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/real_estate/article/0,1299,DRMN_414_1913662,00.html
Report says Denver area is vulnerable to home-price collapse

Snippit:

Denver, Colorado Springs and Greeley are "vulnerable to the development of price bubbles," according to a national report by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The FDIC named these cities because of "continuing weakness in the local economies and relatively low affordability." The report went on to say that "home price appreciation has begun to slow and is expected to weaken further in these markets during 2003."

"Certainly, I think we're in danger of that," said veteran real estate broker Lon Henderson, a broker with RE/MAX Unlimited. "The sky hasn't fallen yet, like it did in the '80s. But if interest rates went up, we would be in a big hurt. And if something really bad happened in the general economy that really shakes us up, absolutely it could happen."

Black Blade: Just another example tat the "real estate" bubble is on the verge of popping. Incomes are not rising fast enough to keep up with rising real estate prices and as the economy weakens and should interest rates rise there will be a lot of hurt. It is now a debate of which bubble will burst first � the "real estate bubble" or the "bond bubble".

Off to the gym!

timbervision

(04/25/2003; 18:02:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101908)

Black Blade

Regarding SARS I have to wonder if we will ever know why this bug, at this time, is becoming so famous (infamous). It reminds me of 9.11 when we were quickly told that Osama was behind it. Nobody then, in the media were allowed to ask any probing questions, and the same seems to be happening now. Any voice of reason that is heard is drowned out by the hysteria campaign. You mentioned 6% to 10% lethality. Where are those figures coming from and can you believe them? Who does the WHO represent? In a country like Canada, where we have good nutition and an excellent water and sewage infrastructure, the deaths from SARS is almost exclusively in the elderly and the immunocompromised. If the penetration through different age groups is greater in China, this we would expect, as their general level of nutrition and safe water supply is inferior. If you were a Beijing'er and were just recovering from a bout of gastroenteritis and you got infected with what is being called SARS, you might succumb. For comparison, I would like to know what the typical number of deaths, in these "shunned" cities, from infective respiratory diseases was last year between the months of March and April.

I can remember episodes, in years past, of influenza occassionally killing upwards of a dozen people in one nursing home. Unlucky them, but there was no mass hysteria. I'm sure had we traced back every visitor to that nursing home until we found to poor sod who brought it across from wherever, we could have created a mass hysteria then. But we didn't.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I would like to see some cooler heads pervail and a little more reason at work. As an inhabitant of Toronto I have yet to see one person on the street wearing a mask.

Maybe the government of China didn't cover up SARS. Maybe lots of people are always dying in China of a variety of infectious illnesses. As for it spreading to Taiwan and the Philippines, of course its spreading, that's what viruses do, millions of them every year. Most of them just don't get to be tracked.

I read that the great influenza epidemic of 1919 killed 30% of those infected and hit the 20-40 age group the hardest. SARS seems to have the lethality of the flu and hits worst the same people hit worst by the flu.

Just some thoughts.

Goldendome

(04/25/2003; 19:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 101909)

************* 333.50 *****************

Why...does Gold seem to be bouncing back?

Because of debt--crushing debt; a dollar that is being continually and steadily debased, and the increasing realization of false promises in the markets and in our lives!

Debt--stacked three and one half times our GDP. Debt-- that built our "high" standard of living, now threatening to crush us under interest and principal.

A dollar reproduced weekly by the billions, free to those, first in line to receive the frog skins, but quickly reducing the value of all other dollars produced before them.

And the false promises: An economy set to rebound? Hardly! Rebound with auto and home sales at levels that more resemble the top of a boom, than the bottom of a bust? Savings interest near zero? Jobs--gone. And stock prices that would make placing bets in Las Vegas appear appealing. All the while, baby boomers march in legion, slowly, relentlessly, toward their rewards---Hollowed out 401k's, bankrupt and under-funded pension promises. We march on, ever closer, with hope-- toward a Ponzi pot of gold -- Social Security... will it still be there, for us, or for those coming later?

The pot of gold at the end of the rainbow--the golden sunset--the golden years? Any pots of Gold that we encounter will likely be of our own filling, through our own foresight and planning. The small amounts that we spent for "Sovereigns" here and there... The pretty "Roosters" that caught our eyes... The history and magnificence of the "Saints" and "Liberties" that we would buy, but would not sell. Then the Eagles, Guldens, Coronas-each with it's own story; and with our memories. These are choices, not sacrifices...The legacy that we choose to spend, or to pass on to others, who, in fact, may need them more than we.

-----Goldendome

21mabry

(04/25/2003; 19:49:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101910)

Another

I spent some free time today in the archives reading the posts of Another and FOA.They were very interesting and I think I will make time every day or two for the archive section of this site.

Goldilox

(04/25/2003; 19:56:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101911)

@Magister Aurelius

ROTFLMAO - Your post is TOO FUNNY! Thank you so much for this spot of humor in my long day. Lothar was awesome again, but you get my vote for the best post so far!!!

Goldilox

glennh10

(04/25/2003; 20:37:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101912)

347.3

To accept the monetary supremacy of gold is to accept truth; to do so requires humility in place of arrogance. It requires recognizing that monetarily, gold cannot be bettered; that man cannot improve on it with his "systems" of money; that it can be tampered, but not improved upon. On its own, gold simply does its job. To those seeking monetary prominence, the simple power, the truth of gold is a threat. So, man built his Fed edifices, columns of marble, concrete, and steel, full of men and books full of ideas, to confuse and impress both the masters and the fools. But, gold will be no one's slave, no one's mistress. They tried to manage it. But, gold won't succumb. So, they banished it. Gold, denied and denigrated, remained, even still, untarnished. Gold takes its verbal beatings. In the end, men die, wars come and go, lost and won. But, gold prevails.

Cheers, and good luck to all!

Goldilox

(04/25/2003; 20:39:55 MDT - Msg ID: 101913)

Follow the Bouncing (gold) Ball -

***333.0***

"Why, after taking a verbal beating from the financial press during 'Gulf War II' -- most notably the day-time television business chats -- does gold seem to be bouncing back?"

[or, put another way: "Does Maria Baritromo really have a secret gold stash tucked away in downtown New York, or is that just a nasty rumor being circulated on the gold internet?

OK, first of all, you can call this bouncing if you like, but to me it looks like the dying gasps of an abandoned superball, with each bounce a little smaller and closer together than the last. That's my best attempt at technical analysis.

Why would Mdml Baritromo secretly horde such a "barbarous relic"?

Well, it seems she is trying to CHA (cover her arse) for the impending SM meltdown. She has recently been heard whining in the Manhattan bars that "Joe graduated with Jeff Immelt, Liz is married to the producer, and Mark has a budding career as a Rush Limbaugh impersonator. Faber has his report, and Heckle and Jeckle have already inked contracts to return to Warner Bros' cartoon channel. What's a girl to do?" Diamonds are supposed to be a girl's best friend, but even she is smart enough to see through deBeers' price fixing, so there just is no alternative to hording gold.

mikal

(04/25/2003; 21:21:46 MDT - Msg ID: 101914)

@glennh10

Good entry! MK's contests bring some of the most surprising opinions. When the markets, pick any one, get as insane as today, it is still important to be objective. Many would fail to solely due to apathy or incompetence. Others cannot see past trumped-up government "statistics" and the fruits of debt accretion turned to manic acceleration. During the Great Depression, one thriving industry was in entertainment, movies, slapstick, theater, games, parties. It's ironic that today's "Depression" was perpetuated by censored, entertainment news and massaged and mollifying government and corporate press releases. Here's hoping that the most profitable amusements to come will be "managed" only to satire or lampoon, to satisfy healthy appetites, discriminating taste, rejecting propaganda and sugar-coated drugs. Cheers!

Black Blade

(04/25/2003; 22:16:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101915)

Timbervision � SARS

It is difficult to get much accurate information on SARS and who is affected the worst. The medical treatment and perhaps even the facilities in Third world countries lend to the infected succumbing in larger numbers. This could account for the higher 10% mortality estimate as well as the Chinese government for example is not always forthcoming on such data. In Asia it appears that deaths cut across all age groups and even appear to hit the middle aged the worst. In fact the two most recent deaths in the Philippines were a middle-aged nurse's aide and her elderly father who also happened to have cancer. In societies where there are cultural/societal differences, different diet, medical treatment, etc. the mortality rate may vary between the 5.9% to 10% figures. In Canada the demographic may be quite different probably due to different treatment methods and lifestyle (though it is said to be incurable and untreatable and must run its course). Of course with such a small sample population in Canada these statistics as per mortality rate and age groupings are essentially meaningless. If more people from a wider cross section were infected we would probably get a better picture of who is most likely at risk of a fatal outcome (though obviously I would not recommend infecting healthy people to develop a larger sample population for a statistical study).

One thing that is certain is that SARS is extremely contagious and re-infection appears to be a possibility. This epidemic has already had a severe effect on the Asian economy and appears to be getting worse as manufacturers close, people stay at home, and some foreign based companies are withdrawing from the region. In fact I believe that Sybase closed their Beijing office today. In Toronto there are already economic effects as the tourism, travel, restaurant, and retail sectors are experiencing reduced business since SARS appeared on the radar and the WHO recommended against travel to the city. As expected Toronto's mayor is not amused. Last week the CDC said that a cure was at least 18 months away and yesterday the WHO said that SARS was here to stay. I guess if no one can cure the common cold then this is perhaps quite possible. If this virus gets loose in high-density population regions such as Bangladesh and India it will be a disaster of epic proportions. If it gets spread to the west and is not contained then the economic effects are quite obvious. Oh, I suppose the biotech sector will likely get a lot of investment as a result but most sectors will be hurt.

- Black Blade

Goldendome

(04/25/2003; 22:34:40 MDT - Msg ID: 101916)

GDP growth vs. Inflation growth

Let's see here, If GDP growth was 1.8% and 1.6% for the last two quarters, and inflation is increasing at a rate of about 1.8% and 2.5% in those same quarters--Does it follow then, that GDP growth in real terms is actually negative? Looks like it to me.

timbervision

(04/25/2003; 22:46:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101917)

Black Blade

Thank you for the response to my post. I understand your position. If this disease is new and as dangerous as its being portrayed, then aggressive attempts to control it are warranted. What isn't revealed from the information presented in the media are the number of annual or seasonal pneumonia deaths in each SARS affected region, and whether this current "epidemic" deviates from the historical pattern, and thus represents a truely new and out of the ordinary disease danger. I am aware of the potential for the expanding economic damage from SARS. I am also already terribly worried about the effect on my own city. But if this thing is "hysterically" overblown and misuderstood then this too needs to be exposed.

In Jon Rappoport nomorefakenews.com he has this to say today.

Snippit.

"MORE ON THE SARS SCAM IN CANADA, CHINA, AUSTRALIA

April 25. Let's start here: the list of SARS symptoms is indistinguishable from the symptoms of ordinary pneumonias and flu.

That's right.

If you took two people---one who had been diagnosed with SARS and one who had some regular pneumonia or flu---you would not be able to eyeball the difference.

I know that people don't want to believe this, but they also don't want to believe that a stock they just bought is worthless junk that is heading into the toilet.

Sometimes you have to see the facts before the facts burn you.

Okay. Now, here are a few stats for Canada. The first is from the Canadian Institute for Health Information: "Overall, influenza/pneumonia is a major contributor to deaths and hospitalizations among the elderly. It is the leading cause of death from infectious disease in Canada."

This statement was made in 2001.

Here is the second stat, from Statistics Canada: In 1996, there were 7627 deaths from pneumonia and influenza in Canada.

So we could say right now that the leading cause of death from infectious disease in Canada is SARS---because one cannot tell the difference between the symptoms of influenza, regular pneumonia, and SARS.

But we would be better off saying that the clinical diagnosticians in Canada don't know what they're doing, can't make a positive diagnosis of SARS, and are shifting cases of traditional flu and pneumonia over into the new SARS category.

Now, people want to counteract these subversive comments by pointing out that SARS cases are only those people who have the new coronavirus.

However, this would be a lie. The Canadian researchers have already admitted that with even the most sensitive tests, they can only find evidence of the virus in 40 percent of the SARS cases.

And in those 40 percent, the amount of virus they are finding is so miniscule they don't know how it could be causing disease at all.

You may still be hanging back, not wanting to believe me. But if you had a cough and a light fever, and someone snatched you out of your office and put you in a compound on the premises and told you you had to stay there for a month and could receive no visitors, you might begin to change your mind."

End snippit.

Interesting point to add to this SARS fear, 3000 children die every day in Africa from malaria.

Felix the Cat

(04/25/2003; 22:50:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101918)

****$333.3****

Before the War was started, because of the unknowable factors the US dollars was devalued a bit. (I do not have any data to support but I ensured that helped the export of US.) And at that time, gold became "the harbour of refuge" for the money flow.

After the War, most of the unknowable factors are cleared. The Economy would smoothly go up, and the POG would stay in a "fair price". However, there are still many unknowale factors, such as the influence of SARS, the possible of another war to begin, etc. So, let see more days --- SMILE!

F. C

timbervision

(04/25/2003; 22:50:25 MDT - Msg ID: 101919)

Black Blade

Thank you for the response to my post. I understand your position. If this disease is new and as dangerous as its being portrayed, then aggressive attempts to control it are warranted. What isn't revealed from the information presented in the media are the number of annual or seasonal pneumonia deaths in each SARS affected region, and whether this current "epidemic" deviates from the historical pattern, and thus represents a truely new and out of the ordinary disease danger. I am aware of the potential for the expanding economic damage from SARS. I am also already terribly worried about the affect on my own city. But if this thing is "hysterically" overblown and misunderstood then this too needs to be exposed.

In Jon Rappoport nomorefakenews.com he has this to say today.

Snippit.

"MORE ON THE SARS SCAM IN CANADA, CHINA, AUSTRALIA

April 25. Let's start here: the list of SARS symptoms is indistinguishable from the symptoms of ordinary pneumonias and flu.

That's right.

If you took two people---one who had been diagnosed with SARS and one who had some regular pneumonia or flu---you would not be able to eyeball the difference.

I know that people don't want to believe this, but they also don't want to believe that a stock they just bought is worthless junk that is heading into the toilet.

Sometimes you have to see the facts before the facts burn you.

Okay. Now, here are a few stats for Canada. The first is from the Canadian Institute for Health Information: "Overall, influenza/pneumonia is a major contributor to deaths and hospitalizations among the elderly. It is the leading cause of death from infectious disease in Canada."

This statement was made in 2001.

Here is the second stat, from Statistics Canada: In 1996, there were 7627 deaths from pneumonia and influenza in Canada.

So we could say right now that the leading cause of death from infectious disease in Canada is SARS---because one cannot tell the difference between the symptoms of influenza, regular pneumonia, and SARS.

But we would be better off saying that the clinical diagnosticians in Canada don't know what they're doing, can't make a positive diagnosis of SARS, and are shifting cases of traditional flu and pneumonia over into the new SARS category.

Now, people want to counteract these subversive comments by pointing out that SARS cases are only those people who have the new coronavirus.

However, this would be a lie. The Canadian researchers have already admitted that with even the most sensitive tests, they can only find evidence of the virus in 40 percent of the SARS cases.

And in those 40 percent, the amount of virus they are finding is so miniscule they don't know how it could be causing disease at all.

You may still be hanging back, not wanting to believe me. But if you had a cough and a light fever, and someone snatched you out of your office and put you in a compound on the premises and told you you had to stay there for a month and could receive no visitors, you might begin to change your mind."

End snippit.

Interesting point to add to this SARS fear, 3000 children die every day in Africa from malaria.

Black Blade

(04/25/2003; 22:55:38 MDT - Msg ID: 101920)

Market Wrap Up � Hartman

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

In the face of rising inflation bond buyers typically demand higher returns to offset inflation expectations. There is probably more inflation out there than is being reported. Just look at the action in the currency market�the dollar has been getting hammered! Inflation is better stated as "currency devaluation." Next month the U.S. Treasury will conduct its quarterly re-funding and it is expected that they will be offering a record $60 billion in borrowing, which blows-away the prior record of $44.5 billion. This huge debt offering should put downward pressure on bond prices. I think it's provocative that we now have rumors of a possible Fed rate cut along with a Fed governor openly stating that they will subsidize the bond market should it become necessary. It looks like they are paving the way for the big debt offering next month. These combined factors have pushed the dollar lower this week with the U.S. Dollar Index closing at 98.28, down from 99.36 last week. Just remember that the index was at 120 roughly a year and a half ago, and appears to be headed for an acceleration to the downside. If you are looking to diversify away from the dollar, the Euro just hit $1.10 this week and the Swiss Franc is looking good.

Weak Dollar Means Higher Commodity Prices

Crude oil came down this week with the June contract falling from $28.54 per barrel last week to close at $26.08 today. That's a drop of $2.46 per barrel or 8.6% for the week. Oil demand is down and supplies are coming online from Iraq faster than expected. The price has been volatile, and I expect it to push back toward the $30.00 mark next week as the Treasury refunding (big debt!) puts further pressure on the strength of the dollar.

Spot gold closed at $333.00 today, up from the close last week at $327.60. Silver put in a nice week closing at $4.62 per ounce as compared to last week's close of $4.47. It sure looks like the consolidation in the precious metals is just about complete. The next leg up should be a fun ride! A weakening dollar will continue to support higher precious metals prices. When both stocks and bonds sell off together, the metals should blast off to new heights!

Black Blade: The gold story is a dollar and interest rate story (see today's DMR for an explanation). The huge (actually stratospheric) current account and budget deficits guarantee a much weaker US dollar. There is no way to buck up the buck now. We even have threats from the Fed to that effect. I admit that I was mildly surprised that gold fell lower today but then again I wasn't given the "spin" and weight given to the less important economic data released today. That perhaps should have been expected. Nevertheless, the weak US dollar is destined to get weaker and even if the equities markets should somehow pull off a sustained rally it won't be enough to offset a rising gold price in the face of dollar weakness due soaring daily record deficits and a rocketing debt levels. I don't know if the gold rocket will launch next week or next month, but launch it will. It's already written into the script and there's no turning back.

Black Blade

(04/25/2003; 23:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 101921)

Goldendome

You're right and it gets worse - the current account deficit alone is 5.2% of GDP. Yikes! That is unsustainable by itself.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(04/25/2003; 23:34:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101922)

timbervision

There is one problem that stands out with the Jon Rappoport assessment. The majority of those who died from pneumonia had other complications were not necessarily in contact with one another or had flu at the same time, and those who had flu and got pneumonia were probably already in a weakened condition. Those succumbing to SARS include normally healthy people who briefly came into contact with other infected people or who came into contact with the same objects. Also, medical personnel who treated those with flu and pneumonia in the past did not "drop like flies" as they are with this new SARS epidemic. Even the current "bird flu" in Belgium has taken only 2 lives so far and appears to have run its course. In Hong Kong an entire apartment complex came down with SARS in short order and the residents were quarantined. In 1918 the Spanish Flu took over 20 million lives before it run its course. Even if SARS were a type of new influenza, at a 6% mortality rate the body count could add up quickly if it gets loose into the world population making the Spanish Flu look rather tame by comparison. Maybe it can be isolated and the infected contained until it runs its course. If not, it could get very "interesting" in no time at all.

- Black Blade

seagull

(04/25/2003; 23:50:15 MDT - Msg ID: 101923)

****$329.70****

While the US-UK alliance won the battle for Baghdad, perhaps the European alliance will win the war. The US has made many enemies in the arab world, while the non-involvement by the major European players in Gulf War II has the potential to open doors to deals with the oil states, and paving the way for the euro to enter centre stage.

The USD is still considered over-valued, the ever-expanding debt, and the current economic climate is unstable and vulnerable.

There HAS to be a limit to the ability of the ESF to keep the lid on the gold price. Perhaps that limit is about to be reached.

Black Blade

(04/25/2003; 23:51:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101924)

Corporations still not spending

http://www.bayarea.com/mld/cctimes/business/5714031.htm
Snippit:

NEW YORK -Those hopes for a post-war surge in corporate spending are fizzling fast. Businesses aren't ready to put money toward capital goods just yet. It comes down to this: When you buy new forklifts, build factories or upgrade technology, you want to see solid returns on your investments. But it's hard to guarantee any payback with such uncertain customer demand. Much of the blame for the recent spending curbs went to executives' uneasiness over the prospects of war. They couldn't plan to buy when they didn't know how long the battle would last. But now, with the fighting pretty much over, it appears war wasn't the only reason why spending stalled. Volatile stock markets and continued economic weakness remain the more crucial components in business leaders' decision-making.

A recent survey by The Business Roundtable, an advocacy group of chief executives from some of the nation's biggest companies, found that 27 percent expect to reduce their capital spending over the next six months. Fifty-five percent say they will spend what they do now, which in many cases is down drastically from just a few years ago. Many economists based their post-war bullish growth scenarios on higher capital spending. And few anticipated any pullback by consumers. Strong consumer buying has largely offset the steep decline in corporate spending in recent years. But now there are concerns that consumers' spending pace could slow due to the troubled economy, namely the massive job cuts. So business waits on consumers, and consumers wait on business. The smoke from the war is gone, but the economic picture is no clearer.

Black Blade: No surprise here, but consumer spending really has not been all that robust either as retailers are reporting lower sales. The excuses were rather lame and included "the weather is too cold", "the CNN Effect", the "Easter Effect", and now the "SARS Effect" always with the caveat that it "will get better" after this next problem. No sign of "economic recovery" yet.

Gandalf the White

(04/25/2003; 23:57:57 MDT - Msg ID: 101925)

**** $337.6 ****

The Hobbits have FINALLY choosen their prognostication number, BUT they have no clue about MB as when they watch CNBC they always turn off the volume and have never heard her speak about ANYTHING, as they are interested only in the data and charts, BUT not the "SPAM" ! Most of the Hobbits think that she is most likely "only a pretty face" to counterbalance the other clowns around her.
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(04/26/2003; 00:05:42 MDT - Msg ID: 101926)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAA --- POG CONTEST UPDATE is shown at the LINK !

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlLISTING of Entries as of FRIDAY, 4/26/03, 00:01 Denver Time !
Remember Sunday at HIGH NOON in Denver is the Deadline Time !!!
TICK TOCK !!!

**** $367.8 **** Moegold (04/22/03; 11:12:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 101695)

**** $354.4 **** Goldbug 1 (04/21/03; 22:20:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 101679)

**** $353.9 **** Eleanor of Aquitaine (04/22/03; 12:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101701)

**** $351.3 **** goldquest (04/21/03; 20:16:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 101670)

**** $351.0 **** mikal (4/23/03; 09:27:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101748)

**** $350.0 **** Zhisheng (04/22/03; 13:36:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 101709)

**** $347.5 **** VanRip (04/22/03; 17:31:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 101721)

**** $347.3 **** glennh10 (04/25/03; 20:37:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 101912)

**** $345.6 **** steady (04/23/03; 17:07:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 101772)

**** $345.0 **** Clink! (04/22/03; 06:07:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 101690)

**** $343.3 **** Nakajima (04/22/03; 08:17:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101692)

**** $342.1 **** slingshot (04/22/03; 23:52:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 101738)

**** $340.3 **** makcumka (04/21/03; 20:42:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101673)

**** $340.0 **** alkahulik (04/24/03; 21:00:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 101864)

**** $338.5 **** cockerel1 (4/23/03; 13:23:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 101753)

**** $338.1 **** pilgrims_gold (4/23/03; 13:44:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101754)

**** $337.6 **** Gandalf the White (04/25/03; 23:57:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 101925)

**** $337.0 **** Sundeck (4/24/03; 05:59:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 101817)

**** $336.6 **** Gondolin (4/24/03; 10:01:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 101826)

**** $335.3 **** Magister Aurelius (04/25/03; 12:56:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 101897)

**** $334.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (4/24/03; 09:49:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 101824)

**** $333.5 **** Goldendome (04/25/03; 19:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101909)

**** $333.3 **** Felix the Cat (04/25/03; 22:50:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 101918)

**** $333.0 **** Goldilox (04/25/03; 20:39:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 101913)

**** $331.0 **** Bizkit (4/25/03; 08:16:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 101886)

**** $332.7 **** J-Bullion (4/23/03; 14:41:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101758)

**** $326.5 **** Topaz (04/22/03; 04:31:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 101689)

===
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(04/26/2003; 00:11:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101927)

OOPS -- that POG UPDATE should have said ----

AS of SATURDAY, 4/26/03 ---
WAY past my bedtime !
<;-(

Black Blade

(04/26/2003; 00:34:04 MDT - Msg ID: 101928)

Important world oil supply report

http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=6626.topic
Snippit:

Douglas-Westwood Ltd. has completed a major study, the second edition of The World Oil Supply Report, a 280-page study that says the world is still drawing down its oil reserves, faster than ever. And, even assuming no growth in demand, it is likely that by the end of this decade, OPEC will have to be in a position to increase its output by over 1 million bbl/day per year, every year, to offset declines in non-OPEC output. The overall conclusion of the extensive research carried out for this report into all potential sources of oil, is that the world's known and estimated, yet-to-find reserves cannot satisfy even the present level of production of some 74 MMbpd beyond 2020. Any growth in global economic activity only serves to increase demand and bring forward the peak year. One percent demand growth brings the year to 2016, when production is expected to peak at around 85 MMbpd. And with 2% growth, peak production of around 90 MMbpd occurs in 2012. Non-OPEC decline is expected to begin around 2007, whatever the demand. The report notes, "At the end of 2002, 99 countries had produced oil or were expected to produce it in the future. Of these, 49, including the US and Russia, are well past peak; 11, including the UK and Norway, are just beginning to see declining production; and 12, including Australia and China, will reach peak soon. The remainder will see peaks within the next 25 years.

Black Blade: More "Hubbert Peak" discussion. This could get interesting.

Knallgold

(04/26/2003; 03:31:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101929)

Interesting news

Just saw on Teletext that the German gov. abandoned the planned tax on stocks.Maybe there is something moving there?

Toolie

(04/26/2003; 04:14:34 MDT - Msg ID: 101930)

****$330.2****

As the ultimate protector of wealth, gold is desired in periods of uncertainty. With the predictable outcome of Gulf War II behind us, a treacherous world of crooked markets and manipulated currencies now comes into a foggy view. Why does gold seem to be bouncing back? Gold is responding to the relative uncertainty of peace.

Shanti

(04/26/2003; 07:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101931)

********$335.4********

A bouce back is just as nature.

In our journey we came out of the flatland past years, heading up for the mountains. We have just start climbing the hills up en down, before we even can see the highest mountain !

See you at the top, Sal-OM !!
Shanti

Believer

(04/26/2003; 07:56:40 MDT - Msg ID: 101932)

Just a guess you understand.

****335.9***
Because the US Dollar has gone down!
Because the US Dollar is going down!
&
Because the US Dollar will be going down more!

jenika

(04/26/2003; 08:08:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101933)

Australia Gold Holdings 2002

http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/AnnualReports/AnnualReport2002/2002_annual_report.pdfAustralia gold position 30th June 2002 (3rd largest world producer of gold)
Gold loans $AU 1,421m Priced at approx. $US318. Weighted average interest rate was 1.5% Exchange rate at a guess worked out to $558 per oz for gold.
loans 0-3 months $AU 90m = 5.04ton
loans 3-12months $AU539m = 30.2ton
loans 1-5 years $AU778m = 43.6ton
Not bearing interest $AU14m=.8ton
Total gold on loan = 79.6ton 30/6/2002 (approx)
Gold Holdings $AU38m as of 30th June 2002 (68,100oz = 2.1t)

The reported gold holdings for feb 2003 are 79.7ton.
The above figures were taken from the financial statements from the Reserve Bank of Australia's web site link above - pg 85.

Hope this is of interest to everyone. Doesnt seem a lot left to loan out hey?

mikal

(04/26/2003; 08:13:33 MDT - Msg ID: 101934)

Power: thoughts, will and actions of all people

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig2/liebermann6.htmlAmerica's Hierarchy of Needs by Ron Liebermann -Excerpts:
"Over the years, the American government has employed an army of psychologists in an attempt to unlock the secrets of the human mind. They have been trying to find the answer to an important question:
How can we get more money?....
In the State's view, Maslow's great accomplishment was that he identified a set of control points for human behavior, and made it possible for the State to use these points to pursue national objectives. One of these objectives was winning the Cold War.
Young readers may not be familiar with the Cold War, so here is a brief history:
The Cold War was a political battle between Russia and America after World War�2. Both countries wanted to rule the world. Russia had tanks, Communism, and oil. America had Democracy and Capitalism. America, in a bold gamble to outwit Russia, began to transfer her industrial capacity to undeveloped Asian and European countries in an attempt to win their friendship, and also to make them economically dependent on American consumers. As a result, American factories and the jobs that went with them were sent away.
Remembering this is important because free trade economists like Mises are often blamed for America's deindustrialization. In truth, America's industrial decline was a deliberate State action; American jobs were exported as foreign policy....
The reader might ask: Fine, but what does the Cold War have to do with these men?
The answer lies in the fact that Russia has recently regained control of almost all the countries that it held by military force twenty years ago. Now it controls them by restricting the supply of oil and gas. Add to this the fact that Marxists have overrun American schools and universities, and that America's Industrial base has moved to China, a Communist Country. One is led to an unpleasant possibility:
The American government may have fatally overextended itself in an attempt to win the Cold War....
The plan, however, has a flaw: It represents an abandonment of the financial principles upon which the nation found success: The market economy....
The use of psychological warfare against the American people represents an attempt on the part of the State to erase the past, in order that it might more easily shape the future. It is certain that somewhere in the bowels of the Pentagon, a supercomputer is working overtime to measure and report on the effectiveness of every theory, every campaign, and every new slogan. The American consciousness has become a computer model, and the government, it's programmer. (There is a legend that Ben Goertzel is the father of this effort.)
Little wonder then that the average American feels helpless and nihilistic when faced with such a stunning display of intellectual force. It seems impossible for any one man to counter the accumulated years of research that the government can bring to bear against its citizens. In the view of many, the best that one can hope for is to hold the line against further encroachments, and hope that things will somehow get better. Holding the line, however, is not the answer because the government can redraw the line again and again. And each time the box gets smaller.
What then is to be done? If our movement is to succeed in halting the growth of the State, it will need fighters who see the war of ideas clearly, and who are willing to speak out fearlessly, intelligently, and publicly. It is these people on whom the nation now depends: citizens who can match the intelligence and drive of the left, and who can combine those qualities with a Christian zeal for truth and reason in a time when both are brutally suppressed."

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/26/2003; 08:27:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101935)

A complete gold education for $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Ananse

(04/26/2003; 09:38:25 MDT - Msg ID: 101936)

***$336.0***

"Why, after taking a verbal beating from the financial press during 'Gulf War II' -- most notably the day-time television business chats -- does gold seem to be bouncing back?"

Ephemera swirl away in the wind; the immutable remains.

Ananse

(04/26/2003; 09:47:39 MDT - Msg ID: 101937)

SARS

From an emailI received:

"it's been a long time, how you doing. last night, when I was su[r]fing the net, I saw a news was about the SARS in china. the news was so stupid, it said that in china it only have about 1500 people got infected by that disease. according to our friends in china, they said that only in the city that they live, there are almost 10000 people got infected and almost 1000 die already. chinese government is doing a big cover up on it. and now they almost got the diseases contain. that just p[****] me off because the chinese government always tell the good news and don't want the people to know the worst."

Note: I have no way of verifying this information. Even allowing for the rumor factor of 10, 1000 ill and 100 dead in one city is significant. However, fear/worry about SARS may be as devastating as the disease itself - albeit in different ways.

I believe that the world as we know it is undergoing substantive changes; I think that more will change and in ways that are now only dimly perceived or hypothesized. I feel that we are balanced on a knife-edge between those changes which will ultimately benefit the world and those that will harm it. Keep a golden fulcrum handy.

Ananse

(04/26/2003; 09:51:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101938)

California real estate

BB mentioned multifamily housing being built in Burbank (LA area) - this has to do with space as well as cost. In North San Diego County, the population is expected to increase 74% by 2015 from internal growth alone.

As to prices, in one year, property in my neighborhood has increased 22.5% according to one of the solicitation-to-sell notices left by a real estate agent.
That sounds about right - I couldn't afford to buy my house now.

Liberty Head

(04/26/2003; 10:49:42 MDT - Msg ID: 101939)

Daddy, how much longer until we get there?

Just for the sake of discussion, let's assume the vast majority of U.S. citizens are infinitely gullible and will perpetually support and follow their leaders without question. Let us also assume that our leaders are infinitely self-centered and have zero concern for the well being of the followers. Everything everywhere is fixed and rigged to the leaders advantage.
Under these ideal conditions for unlimited spending of other people's earnings, how much debt can our nation endure? Would our debt ceiling also become infinite?
So far we know it has to be more than $6.2 trillion fiat.
I believe our national debt is an excellent indicator of national gullibility.
Is a $100 trillion debt unattainable? If we can go to $100 trillion than that balance will not likely be restored in my lifetime.
Those of us, who own gold, believe, at some point soon, balance will be restored.
From my non-scientific perspective of national gullibility, balance is not likely before $10 trillion and may go to $20 trillion in debt, even without finding WMD in Iraq.

Gandalf the White

(04/26/2003; 11:08:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101940)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA --- POG CONTEST UPDATE

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlLISTING of Entries as of SATURDAY, 4/26/03, 11:01 Denver Time !

**** $367.8 **** Moegold (04/22/03; 11:12:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 101695)

**** $354.4 **** Goldbug 1 (04/21/03; 22:20:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 101679)

**** $353.9 **** Eleanor of Aquitaine (04/22/03; 12:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101701)

**** $351.3 **** goldquest (04/21/03; 20:16:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 101670)

**** $351.0 **** mikal (4/23/03; 09:27:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101748)

**** $350.0 **** Zhisheng (04/22/03; 13:36:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 101709)

**** $347.5 **** VanRip (04/22/03; 17:31:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 101721)

**** $347.3 **** glennh10 (04/25/03; 20:37:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 101912)

**** $345.6 **** steady (04/23/03; 17:07:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 101772)

**** $345.0 **** Clink! (04/22/03; 06:07:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 101690)

**** $343.3 **** Nakajima (04/22/03; 08:17:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101692)

**** $342.1 **** slingshot (04/22/03; 23:52:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 101738)

**** $340.3 **** makcumka (04/21/03; 20:42:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101673)

**** $340.0 **** alkahulik (04/24/03; 21:00:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 101864)

**** $338.5 **** cockerel1 (4/23/03; 13:23:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 101753)

**** $338.1 **** pilgrims_gold (4/23/03; 13:44:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101754)

**** $337.0 **** Sundeck (4/24/03; 05:59:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 101817)

**** $336.6 **** Gondolin (4/24/03; 10:01:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 101826)

**** $336.0 **** Ananse (04/26/03; 09:38:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 101936)
**** $335.9 **** Believer (04/26/03; 07:56:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 101932)

**** $335.4 **** Shanti (04/26/03; 07:53:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 101931)
**** $335.3 **** Magister Aurelius (04/25/03; 12:56:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 101897)

**** $334.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (4/24/03; 09:49:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 101824)

**** $333.5 **** Goldendome (04/25/03; 19:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101909)

**** $333.3 **** Felix the Cat (04/25/03; 22:50:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 101918)

**** $333.0 **** Goldilox (04/25/03; 20:39:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 101913)

**** $331.0 **** Bizkit (4/25/03; 08:16:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 101886)

**** $330.2 **** Toolie (4/26/03; 04:14:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 101930)

**** $332.7 **** J-Bullion (4/23/03; 14:41:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101758)

**** $326.5 **** Topaz (04/22/03; 04:31:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 101689)

===
<;-)

Pippin

(04/26/2003; 11:16:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101941)

***$339.50***

Because a new major wave 3 down will take place (ref is made to the Elliott Wave system).

John the Jute

(04/26/2003; 11:37:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101942)

**** $320.0 ****

"Why is the grass pink to-day?" I asked.

Dorothy Gale looked up from her game with Toto. "Why not?" she asked in return.

"Because grass is supposed to be green," I replied.

"Well that may be true in the Kingdom of the Jutes," she said, "but it rains every other day there. Besides, aren't you used to cherry trees being pink in the Springtime?"

"Well, yes," I replied, puzzled.

"There you are then," she said.

"Oh, I see," I replied. And I hope you do too, because I don't think she's going to give us any more in the way of an explanation.

"Anyway," she went on, "much more puzzling is your asking the Tin Woodman to advise you on the price of gold. Why ever did you do that?"

"He is very well qualified," I explained. "Can you imagine a better background for an adviser in precious and industrial metals than to be made of metal yourself? Moreover, he has a PhD from the Emerald University."

"Well, ye-es," said Dorothy thoughtfully. "The snag is that I know the Dean of that University and his examination standards are somewhat eccentric. Don't you think that anyone who takes investment advice from a character in a fairy story deserves what he gets?"

"Not at all," I replied. "I think that many investment newsletters are fairy stories. And Messrs Lion, Scarecrow and Woodman have beaten all other advisers on their stock portfolios over the last three years."

"Yes indeed, but that's because it is Lion who is their stock analyst, and he hasn't been able to summon up the courage to buy any shares yet. He has kept all their investments in cash on deposit. Why did Woodman suggest £320?"

"Apparently, some idiot has told him that the dollar has lost value by a factor of 16 since he first visited you in Kansas, so he multiplied $20 by 16."

"But a twenty-dollar double eagle contains less than an ounce of gold!"

"I thought so too, but Woodman asked Scarecrow to do the calculation, and I don't think Scarecrow is too good with decimals. Though he too now has a PhD from the Emerald University."

"Somehow, I'm not surprised," muttered Dorothy. "But why did you choose them? Did you consider the advice center in the House at Pooh Corner?"

"I thought about it of course," I replied, "but Frank Baum, the kindly old storyteller, who was the first to realize that fairy stories don't have to be Grimm, died more than 70 years ago. None of the stories he told about you all is in copyright any more."

"The film they made about us is still in copyright though."

"Is there a film too? I've never seen that. Is it ever shown on television?"

"Well, not as often as Citizen Kane," said Dorothy, "but I'm sure you could catch a showing if you tried hard. Anyhow, that's enough talking. I'm ignoring Toto."

So they skipped off together, leaving me sitting on the grass and thinking that Oz didn't die with Frank Baum, back in the era of gold-standard currencies and gold-standard fairy stories. Somewhere, behind every rainbow, a girl and her dog are forever playing. In a land where the grass is whatever color they want it to be.

Mountain Top

(04/26/2003; 11:50:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101943)

******$333.50*******

Everyone I know says that gold is a poor investment. Everyone I know lost their shirt in the stock market.
Everyone I know doesn't know what they are talking about. Gold, I got me some.
Who is Maria B.?

Gandalf the White

(04/26/2003; 12:08:45 MDT - Msg ID: 101944)

ATTN. ---- Sir Mountain Top ---- Previously Choosen Prognostication !!!

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlMountain Top (04/26/03; 11:50:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 101943)
******$333.50*******
----
Sir Goldendome posted his on Friday !
Please try again.
You can check the above LINK to see those choosen numbers.
<;-)

Mountain Top

(04/26/2003; 12:38:33 MDT - Msg ID: 101945)

***$333.40

Oops! Trying again.

Gandalf the White

(04/26/2003; 13:20:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101946)

CONGRATULATIONS Sir Mountain Top !!!

You have become the FIRST to be "Bracketed" !
<;-)

specie-man

(04/26/2003; 13:21:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101947)

POG contest and introduction ****$334.0****

The chance to win free gold is a powerful incentive to bring out the lurkers (such as myself). How did I get here ?

I've been a casual coin collector for a number of years and I've always enjoyed putting my money into tangible things (classic cars, house, etc.) rather than into any paper "assets".

I've been reading various internet sites about gold and "economic reality" for a couple years now. Back about 1999 I was waiting for a meeting to start at my place of employment. Before the meeting started, the suject of 401Ks came up. There were smiles all around. One woman smiled quietly - I knew she was thinking about how much her retirement account was worth (on paper). At that moment I realized something. When the "shoe-shine boy" talks to you about stocks, it is time to get out. I heard the shoe-shine boy !!! Later that day I moved all my 401K (and my wife's 401k) funds out of stock funds and into simple money markets (there weren't many choices in the company plan). As it turned out, I was about 6 months too early. But better to be 6 months early than 6 months (or 3 years) late !

Looking forward, here is what I see: Retirement for a wide swath of the population will be absolutely bleak !

People, in general, have no savings. They've spent all the equity in their houses. Pension plans are in trouble. Social Security is in trouble. The only way out is to inflate ! But that will bring on rising costs for essentials. So no matter how you look at it, the purchasing power of people's retirement funds will be severely diminished (by a combination of inflation and poorly-performing "assets"). People will have to delay retirement and keep working (if they can). Overall life expectancy may even decine. Standards of living certainly will.

And on that note, here is my POG contest entry:

****$334.0****

"Why, after taking a verbal beating from the financial press during 'Gulf War II' -- most notably the day-time television business chats -- does gold seem to be bouncing back?"

[or, put another way: "Does Maria Baritromo really have a secret gold stash tucked away in downtown New York, or is that just a nasty rumor being circulated on the gold internet?"(Keep it clean, my fellow Goldmeisters.)]

****Discussion Statement follows****

Rubber checks "bounce" (and sometimes paper currencies as well). Gold does not. Portugal recently finished selling off a large quantity of their gold. When they realized that it was paid for with "rubber" currency, they had a big "oops, what did we just do !" moment. So they had to use that currency to go buy some of it back.

Maria Baritromo does not have a secret stash of gold.
The lady prefers silver !

pinetree

(04/26/2003; 13:26:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101948)

320.30

From my view near the banks of the Sacramento River the price of gold will be managed to fit the administrations election goals which is not that far off. Until then gold will be valued around 325.

Gandalf the White

(04/26/2003; 13:28:54 MDT - Msg ID: 101949)

WELCOME Sir Specie-man !!!

specie-man (04/26/03; 13:21:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 101947)
---
GREAT to have you at the TABLEROUND !!
Life stories are good to hear. ESPECIALLY, ones that teach.
<;-)

FreeWillie

(04/26/2003; 13:40:26 MDT - Msg ID: 101950)

To Liberty Head

Those of us, who own gold, believe, at some point soon, balance will be restored.

Imo the entire apple cart will have to be knocked over first. "Balance" (if I understand you correctly) implies restoring the current system to a less precarious state. However, that "system" has a "systemic" problem: It must inevitably lead to eventual collapse - one way or the other.

The euro is currently doing all it can to assure that collapse, whatever the time frame. The "apple cart" (US system) will first have to lose its rotten "axle" (paper-valuation of gold) before any form of sanity can be restored.

Whether or not we go to a 10 trillion debt ceiling or not first is ultimately irrelevant. The euro can push the cart over now if all of OPEC decides to "go euro" suddenly, just out of spite.

Or Bush (or his handlers?) can decide to put the dollar in a positive relationship to gold to avoid the total destruction of the US economy. Both will accomplish the same thing.

FreeWillie

(04/26/2003; 13:54:09 MDT - Msg ID: 101951)

mikal: Fighting Spirit

"What then is to be done? If our movement is to succeed in halting the growth of the State, it will need fighters who see the war of ideas clearly, and who are willing to speak out fearlessly, intelligently, and publicly"

And for those of us who dn't have that intelligence or speaking acumen, but who have the fighter's instinct nevertheless, there is the chance to speak with the flaps of our wallets.

Throw those flaps wide open and replace what's in them with tangible gold. You could never make a more profound, more impactful statement on your views of current "policy."

FW

Topaz

(04/26/2003; 14:07:00 MDT - Msg ID: 101952)

Catch-22...

It's long been regarded that Treasury Bond Yields provide a minute-by-minute forward looking view of the threat of "inflation" and a 10 Yr perspective shows we've been "disinflating" over that period.
But, how can this be?...every time we open our Wallets we take out MORE than the last time for a specific Item whether it be Milk, Gas, R/E or whatnot!
It would seem then that something is amiss with the aforementioned "indicator" Yes?
What is more probably the case is that Yields are an indication of a lack of alternate Investment opportunity...and to perpetuate the Myth, "statists"(ics) are then charged with the task of producing an "inflation" number acceptable to, and in line with the Yield-curve, hence Hedonic indicators, X-F and E...Yada etc.

The parallels apparent now and pre-1929 are many...the GLARING "difference" (to my mind anyway) is the Gold backing that underpinned the System "then", compared to faith "now"...and this is the main consern when Mr G deliberates on a further rate-cut ie: the risk of a loss-of-faith.
I feel we've seen the Floor on Bond Yields (my oft referred to 4.65% Long eg) and many a sophisticated hombre will have his faith tested big-time when next we revisit these levels.

'umbly submitted from Castle bleaches...

...and speaking of which, my 'umble apologies to "John" the Jute whom I recently referred to as "JoE". No doubt there is a "JoE" in Juteville but the odds that both John and He visit these Halls are infinitesmal.

luckypierre

(04/26/2003; 14:53:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101953)

**** $334.00 ****

Who the hell believes the business chattering groups anymore? Too many people have either lost their jobs, or have seen too many others who have, and just don't see the supposed economic recovery in their intuitive mind. That's where most economic decisions seem to be made, and more of us are deciding upon security over speculation.

$334 is just a guess from following the minor trend line of the last few weeks.

luckypierre

(04/26/2003; 14:56:31 MDT - Msg ID: 101954)

**** $334.40 ****

I just saw that $334.00 is already taken, so I'm changing my number to $334.40, which is just a guess from following the minor trend line of the last few weeks.

Who the hell believes the business chattering groups anymore? Too many people have either lost their jobs, or have seen too many others who have, and just don't see the supposed economic recovery in their intuitive mind. That's where most economic decisions seem to be made, and more of us are deciding upon security over speculation.

21mabry

(04/26/2003; 15:27:20 MDT - Msg ID: 101955)

(No Subject)

I am reading a text called the wealth and poverty of nations.The author discusses the spanish conquest of the new world in one of his chapters.The author states in the begining it was cheaper for a spanish soldier to shoe his horse with gold than with iron.Iron had to be imported from spain and gold was far more plentiful.

harryo

(04/26/2003; 16:53:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101956)

Gold Contest

*****$332.00****** I have become pessimistic. Not on the ultimate increase in the price of gold but on the manipulation of the price. I believe that the price will be forced down into the strike price area that best suits the large holders of options. After expiration I believe the price will increase. As for Maria - I believe she has spoken of the validity of the stock market and the value contained therein for so long that she has a belief in the validity of her position. Those who vehemently extol the validity of their position develop tunnel vision in that area. Therefore, it is my belief that not only does she not own any gold (other than personal jewelry - 18 kt. I presume) but wouldn't purchase any even if offered at $252.

Kev

(04/26/2003; 17:36:45 MDT - Msg ID: 101957)

**** $332.6 ****

"Why, after taking a verbal beating from the financial press during 'Gulf War II' -- most notably the day-time television business chats -- does gold seem to be bouncing back?"
[or, put another way: "Does Maria Baritromo really have a secret gold stash tucked away in downtown New York, or is that just a nasty rumor being circulated on the gold internet?"(Keep it clean, my fellow Goldmeisters.)]

answer to above MK question:

1. Gulf War II was about saving the USD oil standard which will fail miserably because the world won't buy a Pax Americana. It is doomed just like the earlier imperialism/kolonialism Pax Britannica/Romana/...

2. The New World Order will proof to be an Axis Of Gold (China/Russia/OldEurope), not an Axis Of USD Confetti Currency.

3. Maria Baritromo is an undercover agent for China's Central Bank. Her real name is Li Chang. Together with her fellow undercover agents (Chung, Ching and Chong) she knows that China is a Big Hand with 1 Billion Fingers. When all Fingers do their duty, the Hand will be Strong and Powerful. The agents received green confetti from their government to swap it for yellow hard currency. They stash it in their cardboard boxes of the at Mr. Smiley's drive through. At their appartments in New York they pile up the boxes filled with gold and from time to time repatriate it to their home country. Sometimes they even add Smiley sauce by grasping some silver Maples on their way to the airport.

4. Gold SEEMS to be bouncing back because it IS bouncing back. This is mainly due to increased activity of the special agents of China (as described above) as well as their brothers and sisters in the Middle-East.

5. "Like Liberty, gold never stays where it is undervalued." (J.S. Morrill)

The Invisible Hand

(04/26/2003; 17:58:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101958)

Take a hot bath and relax!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;$sessionid$RJHONK2KPYKH3QFIQMGSFFWAVCBQWIV0?xml=/news/2003/04/27/walq27.xml&sSheet=/portal/2003/04/27/ixportaltop.html
Iraqi intelligence documents discovered in Baghdad by The Telegraph have provided the first evidence of a direct link between the al-Qaeda terrorist network and Saddam's regime.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=400805
The case for invading Iraq to remove its weapons of mass destruction was based on selective use of intelligence, exaggeration, use of sources known to be discredited and outright fabrication, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/section/0,,2086,00.html
France gave Saddam Hussein's regime regular reports on its dealings with American officials, documents unearthed in the wreckage of the Iraqi foreign ministry have revealed

http://www.observer.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,944070,00.html
Iraq may have to leave the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries so it can pump out extra oil to pay for the country's reconstruction, says a former Iraqi oil minister who is now a key adviser to the American government.

http://news.independent.co.uk/people/profiles/story.jsp?story=400658
Alan Greenspan: The buck starts here
'I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I am not sure you realise that what you heard is not what I meant.' There, in a sentence, is what makes a wilfully dull, obfuscating 77-year-old the second most powerful man in the world. That, and a long, hot bath every morning.

R Powell

(04/26/2003; 18:26:36 MDT - Msg ID: 101959)

********* $337.40 ********

Perhaps the Gulf War II caused an anomaly in the gold market as it did in many other markets. Namely, war news overshadowed the usual market moving influences. The belief that at least a military victory has been secured has now removed one uncertainty leaving the markets to once again react to investors sentiments and reflect those actions in price gains or loses. The POG was sensitive to war uncertainty but has retracted all the war fear price increase and is once again reflecting all the hopes and fears of those whose investments determine the dollar price.

Markets live much as people do, surviving from crisis to crisis while dealing with everyday mundane chores during the intervals between emergencies.

Maria prefers the power of prestige to the quiet assurance of gold. Perhaps, thus, she controls both but with both ever at risk.

Gandalf the White

(04/26/2003; 18:36:13 MDT - Msg ID: 101960)

SORRY Sir "UN" luckypierre !!! Previously choosen Prognostication !!!

luckypierre (04/26/03; 14:53:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 101953)
**** $334.00 ****
=== Sir Specie-man beat you to that number by an hour and half !!
<;-(

Gandalf the White

(04/26/2003; 18:45:25 MDT - Msg ID: 101961)

Sir Luckypierre --- I got the revision !

<;-) Thanks --- Could not resist the "UN" !

CoBra(too)

(04/26/2003; 19:16:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101962)

Not directly Gold related -

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ED25Ak01.htmlthough worth a read - as the geopolitical aspects of a hegemonial superpower in the long run can only be maintained by a sound economy and its currency.

It becomes ever more apparent that the US Dollar and its economy is almost becoming entirely dependent on foreign capital, resources and goods.

The US seems to become increasingly overstretched - in terms of debt, the Dollar and even militarily - and maybe, worst of all in the fallacy of overestimating its wellcome in the countries "targeted" for liberation.

As many observers also assume that this "war" is not about a clash of civilizations (Islam or Orient vs Occident), but the first volley between the US-Dollar hegemony vs. the �, it may be even more than that.

With the commencement of the Gold Dinar as well the Yuan - seeking more gold backing, as do the Russians with the Gold Chernovetz - may eventually force a more realistic (or honest) monetary system than the pure fiat system, which produced the Paper Dollar hegemony.

There would be lots to add, though we've all heard it before - cb2

Cavan Man

(04/26/2003; 19:49:44 MDT - Msg ID: 101963)

Convenient?

Iraq 'may have to quit Opec'
Oliver Morgan
Sunday April 27, 2003
The Observer

Iraq may have to leave the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries so it can pump out extra oil to pay for the country's reconstruction, says a former Iraqi oil minister who is now a key adviser to the American government.

The extra oil needed would be more than twice Iraq's pre-sanctions Opec quota and almost triple the present output of about 7 million barrels a day, said Fadhil Chalabi, who rejected a US invitation to become interim head of his country's oil sector.

Chalabi, who served on the US State Department's Future of Iraq Oil and Energy Working Group, says the Iraqi industry must be privatised to attract foreign investment following the war.

In the right hands the output of 7 million barrels a day is achievable in about six years. Such high production would, however, place a strain on Iraq's relations with Opec and threaten a slump in world oil prices.

Chalabi's preference would be for Iraq to stay in the cartel. However, he said: 'Iraq must maximise revenue from its oil. I would choose maximising the revenue through oil, with or without Opec.

'If it is within Opec it would be better, but it may not be possible.'

Chalabi, cousin of Ahmed Chalabi, the Pentagon's choice to head the country, said he would be prepared to serve the Iraqi oil industry if a democratically elected government was in place.

He said selling off Iraq's oil assets was the only way to secure investment in his country. 'Iraq is going to need a lot of money in the next five years, up to $300bn.

'Privatisation or partial privatisation is the way to secure this investment.

Chalabi added: 'The nationalised oil industry [in the Middle East] I believe has led to shrinkage of the share of Middle Eastern Opec countries in the world market to the benefit of non-Opec producers - the growth of the oil industry outside the Gulf.'

However, he believed that strong 'oil nationalist' opinion in Iraq would make such a move difficult in the short term.

Christos Aneste..CM

MidEastGold

(04/26/2003; 21:47:21 MDT - Msg ID: 101964)

****332.3****

Thanks to Centennial Precious Metals for this forum and all those who post on it.

IMHO Paper gold will close will lower a bit as we get closer to the end of the month. Wednesdays usually have the lowest closing price for most weeks.

glennh10

(04/26/2003; 22:23:57 MDT - Msg ID: 101965)

Alan Greenspan: The buck starts here

That quote of his,
"I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I am not sure you realise that what you heard is not what I meant."

...reminds me of a "Life in Hell" (comic) quote:

"If you're going to hold me to my word, then you must've misunderstood me."

That's our monetary man!

timbervision

(04/26/2003; 23:01:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101966)

glennh10 It wasn't Greenspan who first said this.

"I know you believe you understand what you think I said,
but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."

S.I.Hiyakawa

Others attribute it to anonymous.

Gandalf the White

(04/27/2003; 01:05:58 MDT - Msg ID: 101967)

TA TA TAAAAAA POG CONTEST UPDATE !!!! TICK TOCK !!

LISTING of Entries as of SUNDAY, 4/27/03, 01:01 Denver Time !
LESS THAN --- ELENVEN hours to ENTER the CONTEST before the DEADLINE !!
TICK TOCK TICK TOCK !!!!

**** $367.8 **** Moegold (04/22/03; 11:12:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 101695)

**** $354.4 **** Goldbug 1 (04/21/03; 22:20:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 101679)

**** $353.9 **** Eleanor of Aquitaine (04/22/03; 12:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101701)

**** $351.3 **** goldquest (04/21/03; 20:16:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 101670)

**** $351.0 **** mikal (4/23/03; 09:27:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101748)

**** $350.0 **** Zhisheng (04/22/03; 13:36:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 101709)

**** $347.5 **** VanRip (04/22/03; 17:31:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 101721)

**** $347.3 **** glennh10 (04/25/03; 20:37:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 101912)

**** $345.6 **** steady (04/23/03; 17:07:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 101772)

**** $345.0 **** Clink! (04/22/03; 06:07:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 101690)

**** $343.3 **** Nakajima (04/22/03; 08:17:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101692)

**** $342.1 **** slingshot (04/22/03; 23:52:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 101738)

**** $340.3 **** makcumka (04/21/03; 20:42:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101673)

**** $340.0 **** alkahulik (04/24/03; 21:00:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 101864)

**** $339.5 **** Pippin (04/26/03; 11:16:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 101941)

**** $338.5 **** cockerel1 (4/23/03; 13:23:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 101753)

**** $338.1 **** pilgrims_gold (4/23/03; 13:44:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101754)

**** $337.6 **** Gandalf the White (04/25/03; 23:57:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 101925)

**** $337.4 **** R Powell (04/26/03; 18:26:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 101959)

**** $337.0 **** Sundeck (4/24/03; 05:59:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 101817)

**** $336.6 **** Gondolin (4/24/03; 10:01:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 101826)

**** $336.0 **** Ananse (04/26/03; 09:38:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 101936)
**** $335.9 **** Believer (04/26/03; 07:56:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 101932)

**** $335.4 **** Shanti (04/26/03; 07:53:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 101931)
**** $335.3 **** Magister Aurelius (04/25/03; 12:56:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 101897)

**** $334.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (4/24/03; 09:49:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 101824)
**** $334.4 **** luckypierre (04/26/03; 14:56:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 101954)

**** $334.0 **** specie-man (04/26/03; 13:21:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 101947)

**** $333.5 **** Goldendome (04/25/03; 19:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101909)
**** $333.4 **** Mountain Top (04/26/03; 12:38:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 101945)
**** $333.3 **** Felix the Cat (04/25/03; 22:50:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 101918)

**** $333.0 **** Goldilox (04/25/03; 20:39:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 101913)

**** $332.6 **** Kev (04/26/03; 17:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 101957)

**** $332.3 **** MidEastGold (04/26/03; 21:47:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101964)

**** $332.0 **** harryo (04/26/03; 16:53:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 101956)

**** $331.0 **** Bizkit (4/25/03; 08:16:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 101886)

**** $330.2 **** Toolie (4/26/03; 04:14:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 101930)

**** $332.7 **** J-Bullion (4/23/03; 14:41:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101758)

**** $326.5 **** Topaz (04/22/03; 04:31:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 101689)

**** $320.3 **** pinetree (04/26/03; 13:26:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 101948)

**** $320.0 **** John the Jute (04/26/03; 11:37:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 101942)

===
<;-)

Belgian

(04/27/2003; 01:14:35 MDT - Msg ID: 101968)

The axis of Oil....

All the coming cruel "atrocities" are going to happen for a directly or indirectly reason/reasons that is oil-related.
Be it the "price" of oil or the "control" of oil.
Different oilprice-levels are convenient for different consumers AND producers. Idem dito for the "control" of different reserves (and pipeline corridors) of oil.
In one simple word : Oil Power Struggles and the consequential derivates of these struggles !
Oil is "THE" most strategic and deepiest fundamental of the global (industrial) economy. Directly related with any oil-consumer's currency and fiscal policy and income related for any oil-producer.

For the many different parties, the *oil* fundamentals will justify a lot of their actions and reactions. All the noices for public consumption will serve as cover up and as instrument to polarize, divide and rule !

Yesterday's Bagdad explosion was a clear example (atrocity) for what is to come.

The M.E.(and Russian) remaining oil-wealth must be brought into a pure *Western* logic. The recycling of the Petro-revenues into the western commercial (mercantilistic)(market) model. This theory will find more enthousiastic adepts the more islam is demonized (demonization in general) and associated with (religious) terror.

The oil-weapon is the *real* threat ! But this doesn't sell that easely (conveniently) to the general public.
Better to engage on terror-threats that can be provoked, fabricated ad infinitum...and is also a big business !
The logic of war.

I think that I start to understand how this world *really* works. Therefore, I remain convinced that the multiple containment of Gold is in analogy with all other, complicated, power-struggles. The Gold over Oil ratio - 335$/25$ = 13,4 remains on the lower end of its 30 yrs history.
(Average = 16,4)(There were 5 peaks above 25)
The rulers want to keep the chart of "Gold's valuation in oil terms" (POG:POO) as it behaved (relative nicely) in the past 3 decades.
This to extend the global industrial economy on the, de facto, dollar-reserve system.

Will the Project for a New American century, succeed ???

Gold Standard

(04/27/2003; 01:35:50 MDT - Msg ID: 101969)

**** $339.0 *****

http://www.foulds2000.freeserve.co.uk/economists.htm
Why does gold keep bouncing back?

Well, obviously it's all about the elasticity of the market.

(See the above linked site, to delve into the inner-most workings of the minds of economists. But, I digress....)

As Sir Isaac Newton used to say (before he received the Nobel Prize for Physics, and retired to the Bahamas on his lecture circuit income): "What goes up - must come down!"

As long as the free (and not-so-free) world continues to gleefully print fiat money unabated, REAL money is like a slingshot, being pulled tighter and tighter.

Sure, the Cabal presses down upon the sling every now and again, and especially when things are turning pear-shaped for them, but because gold is now so tightly wound, it just BOUNCES BACK.

The gold slingshot is the greatest seige engine ever built, and the tightening pressure is being applied by many, many mis-informed "helpers", such as Wall Street, the Federal Reserve, the Governments of the "free" world, numerous bullion banks, and highly leveraged gold producers.

Who, then, is aiming the slingshot? I would think that the goldbugs are helping out with this...

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(04/27/2003; 02:18:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101970)

@Belgian - PNAC, will it succeed

There is nothing new under the sun. What is now, as been before. Did Rome survive?

Read "The Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire", Edward Gibbon. You can see where we are now with this new wannabe empire builder.

The clear answer is it will not succeed. There is always a large element of delusion right to the very (bitter) end.

Black Blade

(04/27/2003; 03:16:37 MDT - Msg ID: 101971)

Two More Cases Of SARS Reported In US

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030425/2004000724_1.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Two more probable cases of SARS were detected Friday in the U.S., raising the total to 41. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said there an additional 213 suspected cases of the severe acute respiratory syndrome. Those suspected of having the illness have fever and other virus symptoms after recently visiting Asian countries or after being in close contact with recent travelers to those countries. Thursday there were 208 suspected SARS cases. There have been no deaths from the illness in the U.S., according to the World Health Organization. Outside the U.S., 4,610 people have been stricken with the illness as of Friday, an increase of 208 from Thursday. Of those 2,206 recovered. Of that group, 274 have died, including 11 since Thursday.

Black Blade: So it goes.

Black Blade

(04/27/2003; 03:30:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101972)

Earnings may look good, but companies are beating lowered expectations

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/030425/na_fin_mkt_us_weekly_wall_street_2.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street rallied this past week on a wave of encouraging earnings that sent stocks to their highest levels in months, raising hopes of a longer-term recovery now that the war with Iraq is over. Indeed, even as stocks retreated Thursday and Friday, many analysts said investors remained upbeat. Still, they cautioned that investors may be overoptimistic as companies beat lowered expectations and are largely guarded about their forecasts for the rest of the year. "There is a wide gap between economists' top-down and businesses' bottoms-up outlooks," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo in Minneapolis. "The economic baton won't pass from consumers to businesses as long as a jobless recovery continues." He said businesses are unlikely to commit to more capital spending until they see increased consumer demand for their products, and that might not happen given the weak labor market. If so, "the first-quarter momentum for earnings can't continue," Sohn said.

Black Blade: It should read companies are "beating lowered expectations with pro forma earnings". Corporate earnings (or losses) are vastly lowered quarter on quarter. This is not much comfort to those expecting an "economic recovery" in the "second half" or beyond. This is a secular bear market that will last for several years. Much is made of expectations on lower oil prices and yet the question should be about "energy prices".

Topaz

(04/27/2003; 05:52:21 MDT - Msg ID: 101973)

RPowell, All.

The greatest complement one Man can pay another is to simply ask, "what do You think?"� and then be attentive with the reply�.Henry Thoreau c1860. (paraphrased)

With that in mind Rich I'll endeavor to revisit your recent enquiry and outline my theory�where we've been and where we're headed�as clearly and succinctly as able - so You, and those gathered here may be better equipped to react should such a scenario come to pass.
Let me state at the outset, -- contrary to sectors notion that anyone who consistently calls for a lower Goldprice is a Cabalistic stooge, -- that I'm 100% Physical in possession and a stauncher Gold advocate would indeed be hard to find�nor am I anti-American! It's curious though to note that those Goldprice projectionists who see PoG in the many hundreds and occasionally Thousands derived through a Comex status-quo, are largely (exclusively) American based whereas the multi-Thousand to infinite "Tilt" numbers tend to come from abroad. I sincerely believe there is a Dollar-collapse-denial mentality evident here which readers will have to address as best they can�.onward!

Topaz

(04/27/2003; 05:59:48 MDT - Msg ID: 101974)

Where we've been: -

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.asp?bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&symbols=TYXY.=MThe Chart depicts the 30Yr Bond Yield for the last 5odd Yr.'s�and is a continuation of a 10-+Yr. trend in Yield decline. PoG otoh has halted it's decline in most currencies and is an uptrend particularly in $US.
Several factors came into play here, The Washington Agreement, GATA, and The Euro all contributed to PoG as we see it Today @$330ish�but this isn't about Gold (yet!)
You'll notice the 2 "bottoms" on the Chart�Oct�02, and Mar�03. These both bounced back over 5% "quick-and-lively" once hit (actually in Oct, three runs were made at 4.65% over 5 days before it retreated�and it "overshot" to 4.625% in Mar)
So, to my way of thinking, we have an established "floor" on the 30Yr�during March the shorter maturities all registered ATL's and I assume we were at the bottom right across the board then.

contrarian

(04/27/2003; 06:05:46 MDT - Msg ID: 101975)

**334.2**

I think SARS will have a huge economic impact over the next few months...and believe that publicly stated statictics are just the tip of the iceberg. The Chinese are secretive, if anything, and it's more likely the situation is worse than admitted to.

I believe, as shown in Turk's latest report, that Fed has much less leverage with respect to pushing down gold. He proved that outflows of gold have greatly reduced compared to 2001 and earlier. They're know they can't sell all their gold, and are getting close to a required minimum they should maintain.

I think the fact that three reports, through three separate methodologies, confirm this manipulation and selling of CB gold stocks, is enough to convince me that gold is on a long-term up trajectory.

Topaz

(04/27/2003; 06:08:27 MDT - Msg ID: 101976)

Enter the "Triple-Bottom".

http://www.stockcharts.com/education/What/ChartAnalysis/triplebottom.htmlMost who gather here will be aware of this Tech phenomenon .The primer (linked) will assist as a refresher. To apply this "reversal-signal" to Bond Yields is a bit "out-there" but considering we are dealing with a Large and Unabridged Bond Market, I firmly believe the application valid.
We see that the next (current) leg down is wave 3�the gyrations in Yields (like a Dogs Breakfast at present) would suggest the downpoint could be hit any time. It will take on the characteristics of a Classic T/B "IF" we last another Month or so �and I see early-mid June as likely, particularly if Last Years $ weakness into Q2 reporting is repeated.
Assuming yours truly nails it and the above transpires (a huge Yield reversal)�we now make the quantum leap�into the Future.

Topaz

(04/27/2003; 06:16:49 MDT - Msg ID: 101977)

Dash for Cash

It is a sad truth that despite the almost universal common sense emanating from Forums such as this, the World-at-large views the "wrapping-paper" as more valuable than the Golden gift it contains - and should the aforementioned scenario unfold, �tis Cash they'll crave.
The "event" will manifest itself as a Deflationary Collapse where any Holders of medium/long term assets ie Bonds, Stocks, R/E and�dare I say it! Comex Gold will attempt to liquidate for Cash.
The Fed/Treas will respond as best they can but they won't have a hope in Hades. Yields will ratchet up through the teens and twenties�perhaps thirties and STILL the buyers will hide. Digits will electronically flood the system and queues will form outside Banks the World over.
The System �what System? A System now in deflationary mode as Cash rules. The fungibility of currency will be questioned as Cash-in-Hand far outstrips Cash-on-account as a tradable medium, The logic of Money will begin to dawn on the Masses, the Goldrush will be on in earnest and the System will have effectively collapsed.
Timeframe�. Minutes to Days.

Topaz

(04/27/2003; 06:24:17 MDT - Msg ID: 101978)

How will Gold react?

Let's look now how PoG might react if our vision proves clear. We'll take Jun09�PoG @ $368, $index 92 and dropping, Bond Yield drops through 4.60% and triggers a Global "sell-sell-sell". What's this? Huge sell order volume and NO buyers�our Jun-August Gold positions look vulnerable Yes? Sell it! Comex PoG and it's derived "spot" price plummet to $320 then $280 then�If it makes it through the day what MAY happen in the Following "SpoT Syd or HK market is it will shoot up�and down again in NY. I doubt though that trading will continue much after Day 1. Trading in Gold could be halted @ $250 �or $150 and NEVER resume. What then?
Then will be the dawning of a FreeGold Market...and most fortunate will be he who has it!�"HAS IT"

Topaz

(04/27/2003; 06:33:52 MDT - Msg ID: 101979)

How will the Euro fare?

http://www.universityforex.com/FOREX_History_EURO.htmlThe oft alluded to but never confirmed Gold friendliness of the Euro Bloc may see it through in the long run. It indeed would be a pity to see something 50 Yr.'s in gestation, (see link) be killed off in infancy. Initially at least it will suffer the same fate as the Dollar, Pound Yen etc.
The task will be to promptly and unequivocally declare for Physical Gold as a standout Wealth asset and rigorously defend that concept. As it stands now, it's just another Fiat currency.

Conclusion.
The best course of action is to follow Black Blades advice re Gold, Grub etc. Yes it will get "grim" but you will be immunized to a large degree. Better that than having to participate fully in World reborn�. Annual pilgrimages to New Mecca @ 33 Liberty St NY.NY.etc
The point to grasp, as quickly as possible is "Gold has NO comparable "price" in the current system�It's "priceless" NOW! and will remain so until long after the "event".

Beat a path to CPM as vigorously as your means and understanding allows.

Topaz

(04/27/2003; 06:43:43 MDT - Msg ID: 101980)

PS...Can the "Event" be averted?

Imho NO!�Not without a pre-emptive rejigging of the System prior to.
This action would, of necessity need to be an internationally acceptable solution to satisfy ALL parties. In the current climate I feel this improbable. The Dollar Bloc will attempt a systemic rescue in the very near future (Gold may even benefit - shock, horror!) but to all intents the Die of Systemic destruction is already cast! Of course any post-event official action to re-establish the Monetary Heirachy will be scorned.

Thats about the size of it from my PoV...we can now but sit and watch!

goldenpeace

(04/27/2003; 07:19:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101981)

Contest *******$334.8*********

The price is rebounding because the $ is weakening big time, the Asian and Middle East investors see this and continue to buy, buy, buy in the physical market at ever stepped-up long term bargain prices.
Bowing
goldenpeace

Max Rabbitz

(04/27/2003; 07:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 101982)

*****331.50*****

Gold will always bounce back.

In this case the rise to $390 could have been related to the lack of a Secretary of the Treasury for a couple months and the undersecretaries not wanting to stick their neck out to obligate more treasury gold/paper until the new boss arrived. The war provided a plausible excuse to revert to the old commitments. I suspect they do not have much of a choice at this stage. They are in it until the bitter end. Volatility can be their ally as money can be made in both up and down markets. The more extreme the moves the more money can be made and the more gold will be considered a risky speculation.

Although I can not fathom all the arcane paper accounting rules and definitions of what is or is not a derivative some things are clear. The IMF allows central banks to obscure how much gold they have in their possession and to what degree it is obligated to others. Why else include "gold receivables" with "gold reserves" in their books of many (most?) central banks? To my simple mind there is only one logical reason for this ENRON style accounting. They fear the truth. I think it likely that they now have only about half the gold they claim left in their physical possession.
My sources tell me that Maria Bartiromo (AKA "Golden Earrings") is a double agent. Working by day for the Cabal she makes frequent overnight trips back to the Hill People with what appears to be an unusually heavy purse (look for those tell-tale early morning bags under her eyes). The Hill People are known to have accumulated large quantities of the precious yellow deep in their caverns and it is rumored that Sister Maria is the source for much of it.

Max of the Rabbit People who also have underground storage facilities.

drawmax

(04/27/2003; 07:53:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101983)

***340.4***

***340.4***
The golden girl keeps bouncing back for reasons no one can uderstand. She has been lied to, abused, mistreated in every way and yet she continues to come back to what she longs for. It's my party and I'll cry if I want to....

Boilermaker

(04/27/2003; 09:16:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101984)

*******332.8******

Gold's resilience at the $330 range (with US$ at .99) is like the bottom range two years ago when gold was at $270 and the dollar was 1.20. It cannot be pushed lower without large selling of physical. Any negative economic or political event will move gold above its base price and the base price will rise as/when the US$ continues to fall.

otish mountain

(04/27/2003; 09:36:10 MDT - Msg ID: 101986)

****$334.6*****

Why does gold seem to bounce back after the media assult give it during the "gulf war II"?

Simply put the long term trend is in place for gold and efforts by the media to alter this now very early bull is futile.

But I must say the media is doing an excellent job conveying
the political wishes of the day. Whether people are to lazy or have been dumbed down to the point that anything they see on the tube is truth shows up daily with interactions I experience.

Shermag

(04/27/2003; 10:24:24 MDT - Msg ID: 101987)

****$337.8****

"Why, after taking a verbal beating from the financial press during 'Gulf War II' -- most notably the day-time television business chats -- does gold seem to be bouncing back?"

Simply put, the war exacerbated the very reason that gold was rising, namely the massive US current account and budget deficits. The fall during the war was primarily an extended reaction to an overbought condition, magnified by the public adoption of the spin that "the uncertainty of war is all that supported gold". Now that it has run its course, the fundamentals of a deteriorating US dollar now prevail.

Waverider

(04/27/2003; 10:41:29 MDT - Msg ID: 101988)

***** $335.00 *****

�Twas the Eve of the Contest

�Twas the eve of the contest and inside the Castle
Sir Gandalf did rest after a last minute hassle;
All entries are posted on his webpage with care,
A broad range of prices � both bullish and bear.

Sir MK asked All for price guesses and more...
Just why has Gold bounced since the second Gulf War?
Does Maria Baritromo keep a secret Gold stash
In downtown New York - or is she just into cash?

With disinformation in the financial news
The Truth must be told from a contrarian view;
For despite the news spin from Maria and peers,
There won't be an economic recovery this year.

Gold's bouncing right now as some people can see
The damage afflicting the economy;
"What damage is that?" the blind sheeple do ask,
"Surely Greenspan's held the economy intact!"

It's mass personal, corporate, and federal debt,
The current account deficit's in worse shape yet,
Interest rates have bottomed out to the floor
And stagflation is knocking on everyone's door.

The DOW's kept afloat with RP support,
But on that Maria just does not report;
A PTB pawn, she must placate the masses,
And so views the markets through rose-colored glasses.

Now Maria touts stocks as though they're just candy
And does not hide Gold in her bra or her panty;
A Goldbug she's not, at least not just yet,
So it's only a rumor on the Gold internet!

Now back to the news - as the Euro Coalition
Give up on the dollar to cash in their position,
Trading dollars for euros and Gold for their vaults
The dollar's decline will not slow down or halt.

And Kudos to Sector who's so often said
The CB bullion has haemorrhaged and bled,
In a scheme designed to control the Gold price
While keeping poor Spot on a chain and a vise.

But fear not fellow Goldmeisters for the mark we have hit,
Thanks to Black Blade and others who cut news to the quick;
Have patience and watch as this drama unfolds,
And Hang Ten during the ride on your own stash of Gold!

Waverider

Pan

(04/27/2003; 11:38:05 MDT - Msg ID: 101990)

" Nasdaq 100 explode on a Sunday ''

http://cdchart.innovative-software.com/_common/informer/lib/chart/middlechart.chart?minYear=839548800&sBackUrl=%2findex.html&sRange=1&sSymbol=NDX.X.IND&sTimeframe=iD&sTimestamp=iD+iD+839548800&sid=Is The Stockmarket Now Open On Sundays ???

Hang Tuff

(04/27/2003; 11:49:11 MDT - Msg ID: 101991)

*****331.1**** Hang Tuff

I think "Maria" Is a smart cookie who is well aware gold has been the best investment with highest returns over the rest of stock market. She has to play the game and go along at CNBC or lose her job.

Draco

(04/27/2003; 11:54:14 MDT - Msg ID: 101992)

****331.50****

Although we all believe that the fundamentals for gold are in favor of a rising POG, we must remember that we are approaching a presidential election. The lessons of GWB's father will not be forgotten. They know that in spite of high approval ratings following a Gulf War, that it is "the economy stupid". They will do ANYTHING required to maintain the illusion of economic stability untill after the election is won. After that they won't care and can use the turmoil in the economy to further their goals of a new world order. If they are able to pull it off, we will not see the "to the moon " phase for some time yet IMHO.

Cometose

(04/27/2003; 11:57:27 MDT - Msg ID: 101993)

*****335.50

Yes Maria is in gold ( but she's not giving it its bounce; because she's stranded) she's trying to learn and practically apply lots of new information re GOLD investing .....but she's not in the physical ,,'she's trying to learn as she goes in the paper markets.....and she now suffers market trauma from buying high ....... the recovery is taking so long that she is feeling like Gold is dead and is contemplating selling all her gold positions out of WHIPSAW shock. Not being able to see the forest for the tree , she contemplates all weekend .........Should I saw down my tree or not ..."GOLD loves me , GOld loves me not . GOld Loves me GOld loves me not".....and so on and so on...

Draco

(04/27/2003; 11:58:22 MDT - Msg ID: 101994)

opps - already taken

Let's try ****328.50****

Cometose

(04/27/2003; 12:00:32 MDT - Msg ID: 101995)

***335.50***

correction

Gandalf the White

(04/27/2003; 12:08:47 MDT - Msg ID: 101996)

TA TA TAAAAAAA --- POG CONTEST entry period is NOW CLOSED !

Thanks ALL for your entries !
I now shall try to correct all MY errors and post the OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING !
<;-)

GoldnSilver2002

(04/27/2003; 12:12:08 MDT - Msg ID: 101997)

The truth is people are going to the casino

Well,just finished travelling across canada and went to europe.Because of t.v misinformation,people think they are alone in their financial struggles,that it is just them that is flat broke.Everywhere i go,people realize the stock market is not to be trusted.Since it is fixed,instead they head to the casino,its more fun.Honestly,people are going for broke.They will never be back to wall st,and my generation,generation x will never ever invest,they have lost us.Imagine an entire generation,unwilling and unable to be fleeced.Where will wall st get their cash?As the baby boomers(in u.k) are being told they have not saved enough and that their pensions will be cut by one third,who will be stupid enough to invest in a false market such as wall st?Who will buy the baby boomers houses?How will our none existent children support them?We are over taxed,housing is too expensive and wall st is a scam and we know it.Every time the dow rallies now,we will sell making any gains unsustainable.Wall st only deludes itself.Four years straight of losses.Poeple dont care about bull and hot air,they want results.But let us not over pump gold either,if one bought gold stocks in august 2002,they would have no gains to show either unless they lucklily picked the right stock.So what do we see?That there is no way out and the system will collapse as no one is saved.At least we can revel in the fact that all of us will go broke together.Sorry guys,although we are right(in a free market)about buying gold,this market is not free and people need money to pay mortgages,debts and feed their children.I have travelled the world and everywhere the people are tapped out,they dont have money for investing.The plan is very simple,break the people financially and then introduce a non fiat system.Why will they accept it?Because if they dont,they will starve.

$$$ 321.40 $$$$

Gold can help maintain value but just make sure you lowball your bids and wait for the cabal to smash p.o.g because they will.If you need to make money buy silver.

(04/27/2003; 12:58:53 MDT - Msg ID: 101998)

The Washington Agreement Suddenly Gets Messy

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlJust posted at MK's Gold Commentary & Review:

I was surprised to learn this past week that Portugal was a signer on the Washington Agreement. Since 1999, the gold seller queue was well known to gold market participants and Portugal wasn't on it. Nevertheless here comes Banco do Portugal completely unannounced to sell ninety tonnes of gold over the last three months. The World Gold Council makes reference to the sales as resulting from previous option agreements going back to 1997 and 1998.

Reading between the lines, this translates to Portugal having its gold called away by some unknown buyer. Leaving the more generalized questions having to do with why any central bank would jeopardize its valuable gold holdings in order to draw income from a call writing program, let's concentrate on two, more vital questions (at least with respect to the gold market): First, how is it that Portugal managed in good conscience to sign the Washington Agreement without ever bringing up these option contracts to its fellow participants? And, second, what lessons can be drawn from these high level gold market machinations by anyone considering gold ownership as part of his or her overall investment strategy?

With respect to the first, a simple "Oh, by the way. . ." would have done the trick, as far as the rest of the Washington Agreement participants were concerned, but for some reason Portugal skipped over that common courtesy. This 90 tonne sale (thus far) throws a wrench in things, not just with respect to Washington Agreement annual allotment for the next 18 months (it ends in September, 2004), but also, with respect to the primary intent of the agreement which was to bring transparency to official sector gold market operations. N.M. Rothschild & Sons, seemingly to no avail, pushed this concept hard in the weeks and months leading up to the agreement.

Thus the Washington Agreements opens with this:

"In the interest of clarifying their intentions with respect to their gold holdings, the above institutions make the following statement:

1. Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves.

2. The above institutions will not enter the market as sellers, with the exception of already decided sales."

So much for transparency, full-disclosure and the gentlemanly conduct of business among the inner circle of central bankers. Now things have suddenly gotten a little messy with the Washington Agreement and questions will inevitably be raised what the overall effect of Portugal's options' program will have on its future conduct. As for, the annual 400 tonne allotment, with what's already been sold by Switzerland (163 tonnes, approximate), Germany (11 tonnes), Netherlands (33 tonnes) and now Portugal (90 tonnes), that leaves only 103 tonnes to be sold the rest of the Washington Agreement fiscal year (presumably by the Swiss). How this will affect gold lease rates and gold prices over the next five months in these uncertain and dubious times remains to be seen.

This isn't the first time Portugal - the tenth largest national gold holder with something on the order of 600 tonnes on reserve -- has appeared in the gold market under unexpected and mysterious circumstances. One recalls Portugal's creditor role in a famous gold loan back in 1990 to one Drexel Burnham made just a few days before that firm abruptly declared bankruptcy.

On the second, and perhaps more important, question having to do with the investor education conveyed by such maneuverings, Portugal's dalliance might be instructive more for what it reveals in the complicated overall politics of money and gold than it does with respect to the mathematics of the Washington Agreement. It cannot be overlooked that Portugal was 'called' during a period of rising gold prices and a roiled international economic and political environment. It appears that this gold fed into the market by Portugal has someone's name on it - someone interested in taking delivery, otherwise the recipient of the metal would have settled in paper, payment would have been rendered (in paper), and none of us would have been the wiser. No. . .someone wanted this gold and if they are holding any more Portuguese gold paper, they are likely to want more. It is unlikely that Portugal's gold see the light of day for the interium, or at least until the developing international monetary and political crisis has blown over.

The situation with Portugal's gold tells more about how 'the players' see the world of gold and money than a treatise on the subject, and sets an indispensible example for individual portfolio planners wondering whether or not gold should play a role in their own holdings.

Cometose

(04/27/2003; 13:15:51 MDT - Msg ID: 101999)

Diversity @ GoldN Silver2002

THere is a lot of gloom out there ; THere are still a lot of pockets of Cash out there,however...
even though many burned it on debt and increasing their lifestyle while the DOW went ballistic from 1995- 2000. Correct me if I am wrong ...but I think the dow went from 3000 to 11000 in those 5, 6 years....The wealth effect is relative.....Technically many investors are still ahead....
The smart money however is still leaving the markets and the dollar.....and in this there is still hope that many will get out before it's too late to save the bacon that they gained while the market was rising...This forum is the very type of vehicle that is going to help bring peoples' perceptions of reality to where they need to be to bring on the gas in the Stock Market and bring Lift off to the Commodities markets..(aside -rmemeber the beans....BioDiesel will be Gasoline {and GOld will be money} when the dollar drops and the price of Oil continues to rise because of the divergence and resultant loss of buying power....since Biodiesel can and is being made from SOYBEAN oil , the beans will probably get a nice lift _)
The END that you project is a correct assessment but that end will not come until diversity is completely flattened because of widespread panic accompanying widespread change.....

WIdespread GLobal Economic woe is a very hard one to pull off because of the different engines and cycles running at different times and rates...within this global system...
There is much that needs to go wrong and all at the same time ...for your END to come.....

Bernard Baruch was once asked to assess the markets....
and he said ... Prices will fluctuate...... that's what markets do ...CHINA is on it's own course and independently moving ahead as are the MUSLIM world and the Euro WOrld COuntries.....THe war in Iraq brought division not unity .....more diversity ......THat is good....
It is good that within that GEopolitical and Economic Spere of diversity .....as mind's cannot be controlled to think one way , neither can prices be controlled,...........yet
Get ready for many swinging markets.....the future is target rich for all of us to make lots of money ....one step at a time.....

AS a MAN thinketh, so is he...... Anticipate your cup being full and flowing over.....and Know that " the greatest transfer of Wealth in the history of Mankind is happening " {Nick Guarino) even now . KNOW where the money is flowing to and get in line by postioning yourself to recieve your share....
WE have all been doing this .....Now we have to be patient..

GET RID OF ANY BALLAST YOU MAY HAVE ....... like your debt ..
and perhaps things attached to that debt...

I sold my house in 98....because of prognostications of publications such as Wall Street Underground.....
I did it because the data I was presented with was logical and and well founded......
I felt like it was time to tighten the belt acouple of notches anyway....My wife thought that was absurd although she agreed while we drank and discussed it .....
I saved a lot and because of following the advice of others here and there , I turned my financial ship around....

My wife disagreed with my plan when I began to embark on this a path based on this new info.....TO my wife , it just didn't "FEEL RIGHT"...Logic and Truth isn't emotional
so she divorced me ....and split up our 4 children.....
in June of 99 took her share and went her own way....

Now let's see if I could have done it differently and what would have happened.....WE could have continued on our merry path partying and extending ourselves further out onto the plank......of darkness and in the past three years I would have lost my aarse in the STock Market...and Lost my House perhaps...

and I 'd be a lot worse off financially now than I was then and guess what.....SHe would still divorce me and run....the losses would have been a lot steeper in scenario 2.

I said all that to say this ... if I had stayed the course , I was damned ... By changing my tack to improve our future in 98 , I was also damned.

My kids are coming back to me now....and I have way more now than I had then asset wise net of the divorce settlement....and I am ready for most eventualities...

In my case , my ballast wound up being not only a big house and payment , it also happened to be an unbelieving wife.....who wanted her end......

In my case it wound up being a little pay early rather than a lot of pay later.....with the same trajic outcome.
THis recession is going to put divorce lawyers in boom times business in this decade as the REAL Estate Appraisers were in the last decade....SOmebody said PREPAID LEGAL was a good investment because of the Bankruptcy situation growing ....now you can add divorce to that numerical composite.

Gandalf the White

(04/27/2003; 13:50:23 MDT - Msg ID: 102000)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- POG CONTEST

FINAL OFFICIAL LISTING of POG CONTEST Entries
In HONOR of the forthcoming new nickels -- WE have 55 OFFICIAL ENTRIES !!
<;-)

**** $368.1 **** pilgrims_gold (4/23/03; 13:44:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101754)
**** $367.8 **** Moegold (04/22/03; 11:12:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 101695)

**** $354.4 **** Goldbug 1 (04/21/03; 22:20:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 101679)
**** $353.9 **** Eleanor of Aquitaine (04/22/03; 12:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101701)
**** $351.3 **** goldquest (04/21/03; 20:16:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 101670)
**** $351.0 **** mikal (4/23/03; 09:27:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101748)
**** $350.0 **** Zhisheng (04/22/03; 13:36:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 101709)

**** $347.5 **** VanRip (04/22/03; 17:31:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 101721)
**** $347.3 **** glennh10 (04/25/03; 20:37:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 101912)
**** $345.6 **** steady (04/23/03; 17:07:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 101772)
**** $345.0 **** Clink! (04/22/03; 06:07:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 101690)
**** $343.3 **** Nakajima (04/22/03; 08:17:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101692)
**** $342.1 **** slingshot (04/22/03; 23:52:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 101738)
**** $340.4 **** drawmax (04/27/03; 07:53:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 101983)
**** $340.3 **** makcumka (04/21/03; 20:42:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101673)
**** $340.0 **** alkahulik (04/24/03; 21:00:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 101864)

**** $339.5 **** Pippin (04/26/03; 11:16:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 101941)
**** $339.0 **** Gold Standard (04/27/03; 01:35:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 101969)
**** $338.5 **** cockerel1 (4/23/03; 13:23:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 101753)
**** $338.1 **** pilgrims_gold (4/23/03; 13:44:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 101754)
**** $337.8 **** Shermag (04/27/03; 10:24:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 101987)
**** $337.6 **** Gandalf the White (04/25/03; 23:57:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 101925)
**** $337.4 **** R Powell (04/26/03; 18:26:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 101959)
**** $337.0 **** Sundeck (4/24/03; 05:59:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 101817)
**** $336.6 **** Gondolin (4/24/03; 10:01:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 101826)
**** $336.0 **** Ananse (04/26/03; 09:38:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 101936)
**** $335.9 **** Believer (04/26/03; 07:56:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 101932)
**** $335.5 **** Cometose (04/27/03; 11:57:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 101993)
**** $335.4 **** Shanti (04/26/03; 07:53:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 101931)
**** $335.3 **** Magister Aurelius (04/25/03; 12:56:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 101897)
**** $335.0 **** Waverider (04/27/03; 10:41:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 101988)
**** $334.8 **** goldenpeace (04/27/03; 07:19:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 101981)
**** $334.6 **** otish mountain (04/27/03; 09:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 101986)
**** $334.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (4/24/03; 09:49:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 101824)
**** $334.4 **** luckypierre (04/26/03; 14:56:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 101954)
**** $334.2 **** contrarian (04/27/03; 06:05:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 101975)
**** $334.0 **** specie-man (04/26/03; 13:21:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 101947)
**** $333.5 **** Goldendome (04/25/03; 19:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101909)
**** $333.4 **** Mountain Top (04/26/03; 12:38:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 101945)
**** $333.3 **** Felix the Cat (04/25/03; 22:50:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 101918)
**** $333.0 **** Goldilox (04/25/03; 20:39:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 101913)
**** $332.8 **** Boilermaker (04/27/03; 09:16:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 101984)
**** $332.7 **** J-Bullion (4/23/03; 14:41:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101758)
**** $332.6 **** Kev (04/26/03; 17:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 101957)
**** $332.3 **** MidEastGold (04/26/03; 21:47:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101964)
**** $332.0 **** harryo (04/26/03; 16:53:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 101956)
**** $331.5 **** Max Rabbitz (04/27/03; 07:40:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 101982)
**** $331.1 **** Hang Tuff (04/27/03; 11:49:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 101991)
**** $331.0 **** Bizkit (4/25/03; 08:16:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 101886)
**** $330.2 **** Toolie (4/26/03; 04:14:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 101930)

**** $329.7 **** seagull (04/25/03; 23:50:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 101923)
**** $328.5 **** Draco (04/27/03; 11:58:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 101994)
**** $326.5 **** Topaz (04/22/03; 04:31:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 101689)
**** $320.3 **** pinetree (04/26/03; 13:26:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 101948)
**** $320.0 **** John the Jute (04/26/03; 11:37:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 101942)
===
We now await the COMEX Monday GC3M Settlement Price.
GOOD LUCK ALL -- Chok Dee Krup !
<;-)

Goldendome

(04/27/2003; 13:56:03 MDT - Msg ID: 102001)

Switzerland and the Washington Gold Accord

This from: Prospector Asset Management, located in Evanston, Ill.

"As most professional analysts of the gold market now believe, it appears that Germany's Bundesbank will NOT be a seller of gold in the coming years. The other major potential sellers, France and Italy, have shown no interest in the disposition of their gold reserves. As such, there exists the potential, not the certainty, that the Washington Accord will not be extended when it expires at the end of next year, as there might be few Central Banks willing to sell. After all, the bulk of gold sales during the current agreement has been Switzerland, the seller of 1300 tons of the total allowable of 2000 tons. By the end of next year, they will be done, and it appears that no one dares to take their place."

Goldendome: Switzerland in years past was viewed as a "Safe Haven" currency concerned with the value of their Franc being a stable value. What happened there? What has changed the government outlook? I recently heard an interview with Marc Faber (I believe) who said the the Swis Franc is basically, new trash. Would appreciate any feedback from those with an understanding as to why Switzerland seems to be trashing their currency.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/27/2003; 15:42:16 MDT - Msg ID: 102002)

In bookstores it retails for $14.95. But you know the author! Get it here for $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Tacitus

(04/27/2003; 16:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 102003)

Jane Bryant Quinn, Making the Most of your Money

Dear Forum members,

I came across the following passage located on page 807 of the 1997 edition of Ms. Quinn's book, Making the Most of your Money:

Gold: The Ultimate Worry Bead
For some, it's a trauma defense. Let the Middle East mushroom into darkest night, let Russia flame into civil war, there will be gold.
For others, it's the supreme inflation hedge. If the U.S. dollar is ever carted off in wheelbarrows, there will be gold.
But in practice, gold doesn't always work out so well. Take the trauma defense. Back when Lebanon first fell apart, rich people rushed to their banks to retrieve their gold, only to be robbed of it by gunmen at the door. The gold hoards of many Kuwaitis were similarly seized by Iraqi troops.
Gold is also a bust as an ordinary inflation hedge. In 1974, with gold at $200 an ounce, it became legal again for Americans to own it. Since then, there has been a huge run-up in price followed by a collapse. Over the whole period, gold has fallen well behind the inflation rate.
Gold will protect you against a hyperinflation or currency collapse. But those risks are remote, hence not worth the average investor's time and money. You need to grow your assets for college tuition and retirement. You cannot afford to prepare yourself for Armageddon, too. For everyday inflation protection, you are well enough hedged by owning your own home, common stocks, and short-term or inflation-protection Treasury securities.....

Where is she going wrong?

Salve,
Tacitus

Tacitus

(04/27/2003; 16:45:19 MDT - Msg ID: 102004)

John Bogle's thoughts on Gold

Dear Forum members,

I E-mailed Mr. John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group. I asked him what percentage he thought would be a good diversification into gold.
His response was as follows:

Dear Mr. "Tacitus",

Thanks for your note. In brief...

Lord Keynes describes enterprise as "forecasting the prospective yield of an asset over its entire life," and speculation as "forecasting the psychology of the market." The value of a stock (enterprise) is the discounted value of its future cash flow. The value of gold, which has no internal rate of return of cash flow whatsoever, is based solely on what other investors think (speculation).

Since I believe that investing is, in the long run, a winner's game, and that speculation, again in the long run, is a loser's game, I would own stocks (up to my own risk tolerance, but no higher) and I would not own gold or other commodities.

Hope this helps.

John Bogle

I found it thought provoking.

salve,
Tacitus

Tacitus

(04/27/2003; 16:53:53 MDT - Msg ID: 102005)

Vanguard's Economic Week in Review

Dear Forum members,

Thought this might be thought provoking for us. It can be found on Vanguard.com

Economic Week in Review: April 21-25, 2003

Some of the anxiety surrounding the war with Iraq may be over, but
uncertainty about where the U.S. economy is headed continues. The
Commerce Department's first estimate of first-quarter growth in real
gross domestic product indicated that the economy expanded at an annual
rate of 1.6%, an unimpressive acceleration from the tepid 1.4% recorded
in fourth-quarter 2002. The Federal Reserve Board's Beige Book
described the pace of economic activity as "lackluster" during March
and the first two weeks of April. Five of the Fed's 12 regional
districts that are included in its anecdotal survey of economic
conditions reported a weakening economy and six reported a mixed or
soft economy. For the week, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.6% to 899. The
yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note declined 7 basis points (0.07
percentage point) to 3.89%.

Consumer spending and residential investment were positive contributors
to the early estimate of first-quarter GDP growth, while business
investment in inventories and capital spending on equipment and
software were among the weak spots. The GDP figure of 1.6% is hardly a
sign of economic strength--most economists estimate the economy's long-
run potential growth rate at about 3%.

Adding to the downbeat news, the index of leading economic indicators
fell in March for the second month in a row, according to the
Conference Board. Indicative of a middling economy, five of the ten
leading components declined for the month. Initial jobless claims were
among the biggest contributors to the index's decline. Indeed, the
Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims continued to
rise in April, to 455,000 through April 19--a higher-than-expected
figure--and the four-week moving average of initial claims rose to its
highest level since mid-2002.

Other economic data released this week were more positive. New orders
for manufactured durable goods--built to last one year or more--rose a
better-than-expected 2.0% in March, according to the Commerce
Department. Not surprisingly, orders for defense-related products
surged 16.1%, to their highest level since October 2001. Orders for
nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft--a somewhat volatile,
forward-looking indicator of private-sector business investment--were
up 3.2%, a welcome sign for the beleaguered manufacturing sector.

Separate reports on residential housing activity were mixed. The
Commerce Department reported that sales of new single-family homes
increased 7.3% in March to a seasonally adjusted 1.01 million units,
well above consensus estimates. However, the National Association of
Realtors reported that sales of existing single-family homes declined
for the second straight month, to 5.53 million, a level not seen since
last September. Some analysts dismissed the weakness in existing-home
sales as temporary (due to the war in Iraq and poor weather) and cited
strong near-term fundamentals (historically low mortgage rates below
6%, high housing affordability, and a lean inventory of available homes
on the market) as reasons for optimism.

Consumer confidence numbers due next week:

Next week, the Conference Board is expected to release the index of
consumer confidence, which will include responses received since the
start of the war with Iraq. Also due are reports on personal income
(Monday), employment costs (Tuesday), manufacturing sector activity,
and productivity and construction spending (Thursday), as well as the
monthly employment picture and factory orders (Friday).

Summary of Major Economic Reports: April 21-25, 2003
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
|Date Report Actual Expected 10-Year S&P 500 |
| Value Value Note Yield Index |
|---------------------------------------------------------------------|
|April 21 Leading -0.2% -0.1% +2 bp -0.2% |
| Economic |
| Indicators |
| (March) |
|---------------------------------------------------------------------|
|April 22 +1 bp +2.2% |
|---------------------------------------------------------------------|
|April 23 Federal -- -- No change +0.8% |
| Reserve's |
| Beige Book |
| |
|---------------------------------------------------------------------|
|April 24 Durable-Goods +2.0% -0.4% -8 bp -0.8% |
| Orders (March) |
|---------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Initial Jobless 455,000 422,000 |
| Claims (week |
| ended 4/19) |
|---------------------------------------------------------------------|
|April 25 Real Gross +1.6% +2.0% -2 bp -1.4% |
| Domestic |
| Product |
| (1Q annual rate) |
|---------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Existing-Home 5.53 5.70 |
| Sales (March, million million |
| annualized) |
|---------------------------------------------------------------------|
| New-Home 1.01 925,000 |
| Sales (March, million |
| annualized) |
|---------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Weekly -7 bp +0.6% |
| Change |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
bp = basis points.

Note: The economic statistics presented in this report are subject to
revision by the agencies that issue them.

"Standard & Poor's(R)," "S&P(R)," "S&P 500(R)," "Standard & Poor's
500," and "500" are trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

(c) 2003 Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor

1340cc

(04/27/2003; 17:13:49 MDT - Msg ID: 102006)

***336.7***

My good friend "Golden Earing" told me so. Other than that , not a clue. Kinda like Texas weather.

Cavan Man

(04/27/2003; 17:23:59 MDT - Msg ID: 102007)

Unsolicited comment for John Bogle

Intellectual stasis can be terminal for the health of your investments in the 21st century.

Hope this helps too,

Cavan Man

Waverider

(04/27/2003; 17:34:54 MDT - Msg ID: 102008)

Two Koreas begin high-level talks

http://globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20030427.wkore0427/BNStory/InternationalSnip:
"A South Korean delegation travelled to its isolated northern neighbour on Sunday to insist that North Korea abandon its nuclear weapons program. In a meeting between the United States and North Korea in China last week, a senior U.S. official said North Korea claimed to have atomic weapons that it might test, sell or use, depending on U.S. actions. Communist North Korea repeated that it would not halt its nuclear program unless the U.S. government signs a non-aggression treaty � something the U.S. President George W. Bush administration has refused to do.

South Korea's chief delegate, Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun, told North Korea that possession of nuclear weapons would be a "serious violation" of a 1992 agreement to keep the peninsula free of nuclear weapons, South Korean spokesman Shin Eun-sang said. "We made it clear that we can never accept North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons," Mr. Shin said. "We emphasized that the North should dismantle nuclear weapons, if it had any, as well as its nuclear facilities."

Waverider: This is one of the few articles I've found on the situation in Korea - there's still a strong media focus on Iraq. It seems to me that there's a full-blown crisis right now (more severe in terms of potential consequences than the Iraqi threat ever was), yet it seems to be understated by TPTB. Is this because the US markets have no resiliency to absorb the uncertainty of another geopolitical conflict? A potential showdown with North Korea over nuclear weapons could throw the DOW into a tailspin and push Gold to the $390s again. Does the lack of news coverage and debate appear odd to anyone else?

slingshot

(04/27/2003; 17:44:09 MDT - Msg ID: 102009)

Contest entries

Last contest, 155 official entries.
This Contest only 55.
Slingshot--------------<>

Old Yeller

(04/27/2003; 17:52:18 MDT - Msg ID: 102010)

Goldendome,Swiss gold sales

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary11.html#anchor10301
Reg Howe's thoughts on the subject.

da2g

(04/27/2003; 18:12:55 MDT - Msg ID: 102011)

Cavan Man

Cavan Man: Christos Voskres!

silvercollector

(04/27/2003; 18:42:52 MDT - Msg ID: 102012)

Fruits, vegetables & gold

We know that government has alot to do with gold so before we get to the 'seriousness' of Monday morning here's the latest.....

The family was having a vigorous debate about the definition of a fruit and of a vegetable at the dinner table. So I checked.

To the botanist.......a fruit is the mature ovary of a plant....

Meanwhile, according to the U.S. Supreme Court, "a fruit garnishes or concludes a meal" while "vegetables are plant foods served 'in', 'with' or 'after' the soup, fish or meat".

I'm relieved that's sorted out.

So is gold currency or commodity?

Let's ask the experts!

Dollar Bill

(04/27/2003; 18:44:55 MDT - Msg ID: 102013)

Nolan sez

April 23 � **Bloomberg: "The U.S. is trying to push the dollar lower against the euro to narrow its trade deficit and retaliate against Germany and France for their opposition to the Iraq war, German magazine Der Spiegel said. �This will be Europe's invisible contribution to our Iraq costs,� an unidentified U.S. official told European policy makers in Brussels, according to the magazine. The U.S. has given up its strong dollar policy, the official said."

Interestingly, dollar weakness seems to broaden by the week. The euro again traded above 110, with the dollar nearing a record low against the European currency. Year-to-date, we see that the Brazil real has gained 19% against the dollar, the Argentine peso 18%, South African rand 18%, Australian dollar 10%, and Canadian dollar 8%. This week, British pound trades to a five-week high against the dollar; the Swedish krona trades to a three-year high; the South African rand to a 2 � year high; the Israeli shekel to a 15-month high. Mexican peso trades to the highest level against the dollar since early January and the Brazilian real to the highest level since August. (Argentine stocks traded to five-year highs this week

April 23 � **Financial Times (Goldman's Bill Dudley and Pimco's Paul McCulley): "The Federal Reserve has won its long war against inflation. And, with victory, go the spoils - evident in President George W. Bush's decision to reappoint Alan Greenspan for another term as chairman. But to ensure an enduring legacy, Mr. Greenspan now needs to solve a different problem: inflation is too low, rather than too high. How so? The economy needs a buffer of inflation above price stability to ensure that monetary policy has room to work effectively in the event of shocks to aggregate demand. The inflation rate should be high enough to allow the economy to take a shock without falling into deflation. �the Fed should commit to keeping its federal funds rate at or below the current 1� per cent until core inflation climbs back to, say, 2 per cent or higher on a year-on-year basis. The current reading of about 1� per cent (on Mr. Greenspan's preferred measure, the core PCE deflator) is right in the middle of the 1-2 per cent range that Ben Bernanke, Fed governor, recently suggested as the working definition of price stability."

davefinger

(04/27/2003; 18:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 102014)

Tacitus

There is one simple, fundamental flaw in both of their stances IMO. They silently assume either a continually favorably improving set of investment conditions. In a perfect world, where that is even possible, continually favorably improving conditions, I suppose of the sort enjoyed until the last couple of years, would be improved by a positive, honest and forthright marketplace. As is abundantly clear, from my POV anyway, that is not been the case in our world, and the improvements we have been enjoying are a castle built on sand. PM's are the only (practical) thing that will anchor you to shore when the tide comes in. Also, why are the richest men in the world also the largest holders of physical bullion? They above all others, know that all those records of their billions, on little slips of paper and digital storage aren't REAL. They can all be wiped out fairly easily by malicious/incompetent humans, Almighty acts, etc. It will literally take an army to wrest their piles from them however. I could go on and on. It's a shame that gold is sort of like Harley's - "If I have to explain, you wouldn't understand." :) (Not directed at you at all Tacitus, just a thought that occurred there!)

davefinger

(04/27/2003; 18:58:13 MDT - Msg ID: 102015)

Oops

Should've proofread better. There should be no 'either' in the second sentence, I removed that tangent heh.

davefinger

(04/27/2003; 19:00:59 MDT - Msg ID: 102016)

Argh!

I really screwed that one up! Basically the thought was of continually improving conditions, tempered by the occassional off periods of course, built by solid political and business decisions. Not happening according to my news channels.

silvercollector

(04/27/2003; 19:01:10 MDT - Msg ID: 102017)

Blix says documents falsified

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,6325324%255E25777,00.htmlIn December, the State Department used the information to support its case that Iraq was lying about its weapons programs. But on March 7, Mohammed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the UN Security Council that the documents were forgeries.

"When the IAEA got the contract, they had no difficulty in finding out that this was a fake, falsified simply," Blix said.

"I think that's very, very disturbing. Who falsified this? And is it not disturbing that the intelligence agents that should have all technical means at their disposal did not discover that this was falsified?"

Goldendome

(04/27/2003; 19:04:07 MDT - Msg ID: 102018)

Old Yeller--your link

Thanks for the detailed link with the explanation of Swiss Gold Sales (to balance out other European CB loans and bring those CB's physical holdings into line with stated reserves).

Cavan Man

(04/27/2003; 19:07:38 MDT - Msg ID: 102019)

da2g

(Bulgaria?) My kids take violin and piano from a couple of excellent teachers from that beautiful country.

Alithos Anesti!

Cavan Man

(04/27/2003; 19:12:16 MDT - Msg ID: 102020)

He could be the next Senator from New York.

Blair warns Chirac on the future of Europe
By Philip Stephens and Cathy Newman
Published: April 27 2003 22:00 | Last Updated: April 27 2003 22:00

Tony Blair has issued a direct challenge to France's Jacques Chirac over the future of the transatlantic relationship by warning that the French president's vision of Europe as a rival to the US is dangerously destabilising.

In a wide-ranging interview with the Financial Times, the prime minister foreshadows a continuing Anglo-French struggle about Europe's relationship with Washington. Mr Blair seeks to keep alive the prospect of British entry to the euro but he disavows any personal ambition to become president of the European Union.

Though his personal relationship with Mr Chirac has improved since the bitter row over France's veto of a second United Nations resolution, Mr Blair is clear that the strategic divide that opened over Iraq has not been bridged.

Sancho

(04/27/2003; 19:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 102021)

I Love It

Topaz: My thoughts exactly, although I suspect we have both been saying for twenty years that there is going to be a depression and , by God, one of these days we will be right. Waverider: Eloquent poetry, keep them coming GoldnSilver2002: That is what I see too---guess I better set up a gambling joint with a topless bar to weather this one out in the style to which I want to stay accustomed. Others, also, I read my mentors and superiors(YOU) almost daily. I derive a lot of satisfaction from it. Thank you. I am now going to recede back into the bushes.

Cometose

(04/27/2003; 20:32:18 MDT - Msg ID: 102022)

Dollar

breaking down below support ; should be an interesting day tomorrow

glennh10

(04/27/2003; 20:44:31 MDT - Msg ID: 102023)

Re: Switzerland, what happened?

Ferdinand Lips wrote an excellent book, "Gold Wars the Battle Against Sound Money From a Swiss Perspective".
It covers the falsity of (world-wide) fiat, and the tragedy of Switzerland's finally bowing to TPTB in 1992 and joining the IMF, thus abandoning its monetary uniqueness.

21mabry

(04/27/2003; 20:47:16 MDT - Msg ID: 102024)

John Bogle

I would not be surprised that Mr. Bogle does not invest in gold, I always wondered why vanguard closed their gold fund just as gold was making some impressive gains.Why would a mutual fund family do that,they make their moneu off managment fees.The more money the more fees, cnbc always trots Mr. bogle out to soothe investors fears.

Dollar Bill

(04/27/2003; 20:49:06 MDT - Msg ID: 102025)

Tacticus--reasons to buy gold

Ms. Quinn sez
"You cannot afford to prepare yourself for Armageddon.
Gold will protect you against a hyperinflation or currency collapse. But those risks are remote"
I wish they were remote.
If someone kept mailing letters of anthrax for a couple more months, the us economy would have collapsed.
How hard is that?
If you count the sars death rate using the method used at present, you get 4.9 percent of the people died.
However, that is a deliberately false method they are using.
The 1918 epidemic killed 4 percent.
The ACTUAL death rate from sars is 18 percent.
The way the numbers are tricked, is by includeing those presently in the hospital in the number of "cured".

That is reason enough to buy gold.
And reason enough to dust off your y2k type thinking. Now.

Goldendome

(04/27/2003; 21:02:18 MDT - Msg ID: 102026)

glennh10-- and Ferdinand Lipps

Thanks for reminding me: It was Lipps that I had heard on Financial Sense Newshour, talking about the fact that he had lost all confidence in the Swiss Currency. I had thought earlier it was R. Russel, but thanks for the reminder. He was also a big-time banker in Switzerland, maybe still is.

a nation of one

(04/27/2003; 21:15:36 MDT - Msg ID: 102027)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=dmax&w=1&t=l&a=200
Soon-to-be new low for the dollar?

Dollar Bill

(04/27/2003; 21:26:31 MDT - Msg ID: 102028)

Reason number one for gold and y2k style prep.

I wont post on this again, but this gets my vote for biggest influence on the price of gold in 2004.

Some researchers believe the 4 percent figure is too low because it is not being accurately measured. The CDC is calculating the death rate by dividing the number of deaths by the number of probable cases.

But because the number of probable cases includes some people whose outcome is not yet determined, some say the denominator in the CDC's equation is too large.

"Mortality rates are usually calculated on patients whose outcome is known," said Dr. Henry Niman, a surgery instructor at the Harvard/Massachusetts General Hospital. "(The CDC's number) would be accurate only if all patients hospitalized survived, which has not been the history of the disease in the more heavily affected areas."

Instead, some say the rate should be calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the sum of the number of deaths plus the number of people who recovered, which would exclude those people who are still sick, resulting in a higher death rate.

According to Niman's math, the death rate in Hong Kong would be 25 percent, in Canada 21 percent, in Singapore 15 percent

Waverider

(04/27/2003; 23:42:53 MDT - Msg ID: 102029)

Tokyo stocks hit 20-yr low (again), Sony tumbles further

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030428/markets_japan_stocks_1.htmlSnip:
"Japanese shares hit a fresh 20-year low in Monday afternoon trade after a shock earnings statement by Sony Corp last week, but investors were lured to companies with good earnings prospects such as Canon. Consumer electronics giant Sony was down by its daily limit of 500 yen or 15.53 percent at a seven-and-a-half year low of 2,720 in heavy trading. Sony's shares had alson fallen by their 500-yen limit on Friday, a day after the company shocked investors by falling far short of annual earnings targets and warning of a profit slide ahead, blaming war worries and a costly reform scheme.

But many institutional investors are still reluctant to trade actively ahead of a national holiday on Tuesday. They will also want to see more full-year earnings reports through May and assess the impact of the SARS virus spreading in China, one of Japan's major export and production markets, analysts said."

Waverider: Asia is not a pretty sight tonight as the Nikkei heads towards 7,600 and the other major indices are awash in red.

Kev

(04/28/2003; 04:28:58 MDT - Msg ID: 102030)

Menem, Kirchner face runoff in Argentina presidential race

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (CNN) -- Argentina's former president, Carlos Menem, was headed for a runoff Sunday with fellow Peronist Party member Nestor Kirchner following the first round of presidential elections in the financially devastated country.

http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/americas/04/28/argentina.election/index.html

Toolie

(04/28/2003; 04:52:43 MDT - Msg ID: 102031)

State grapples with shift in auto industry

http://www.indystar.com/print/articles/8/038764-1538-031.htmlSnips;
"The U.S. automakers are losing market share," said Tom Hamblen, president of Hamblen Gage Corp. in Indianapolis, which has cut its work force almost in half to 33 over the past decade as the auto business shrank. Industry analysts expect Chrysler Corp., Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. this decade will bring factory capacity in line with reduced sales volume by closing as many as four assembly plants.
Toolie: This is on top of the plants that have closed already. I expect that you could very easily see that number double. The big 3 are sharing more platforms between models so that one plant can produce a variety of niche vechicles. thereby loosing some of the economy of scale advantave that has been the basis of their productivity.

ANOTHER snip;

"If production goes to the offshore makers, so be it. No one in the car-buying public is going to shed a tear. That's sad, but it's life," said Wall Street auto analyst Maryann Keller, author of the 1993 book, "Collision: GM, Toyota, Volkswagen and the Race to Own the 21st Century." "There is a dark side to globalization," Keller said. "The shelves of Wal-Mart are filled with merchandise made in China, and there is a legitimate concern of this country's ability to create and provide jobs that offer incomes that enable people to afford this stuff."

Toolie: The U.S. consumer unable to afford Chinese made goods? I had thought the New economy had brought us past that "if you do not produce, neither shall you consume stuff". In a sense it has been the production SECTOR that has had to compete globally, while leaving the rest of the economy free to grow. As It would be difficult for Wal-Mart to pay labor $1/day and avoid the taxes, regulation that are absent in a country that desires growth.

Yet ANOTHER snip;

But the incentives sap profits, so executives have pressed suppliers for routine price cuts on auto parts and steered more orders to companies capable of taking on larger engineering tasks. Price concessions on top of slimmer production volumes have raked suppliers, especially smaller firms unable to handle the more complicated engineering chores. "If you take 10 percent off the gross volume, you just can't make any money," said Jim Amos, president of American Design and Engineering, a Ford supplier in Muncie.

Toolie: The big 3 have demanded that many suppliers reduce the cost of their parts by 3% per year for 7 years, forcing many of them to relocate outside U.S. borders. For engineering services, massive lay-offs followed by a 7-10% pay reduction, followed by massive lay-offs as the big 3 shift engineering to Mexico and India. This fact coupled with the influx of people on temporary work visas has caused wages to fall and avg. 15-20% ( my guess, I've heard of 50%) in the last 3 years. The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) has persuaded the Department Of Labor to eliminate overtime pay for skilled labor and pressed other government bodies to invest in a "higher skilled workforce". saying something akin to "a career in manufacturing will require career long learning". Thereby providing a basis of for the claim that (cheaper) foreign labor is required.

When I made the change from pizzeria manager to machine designer 20 years ago, the top wages I could expect to earn were about 4 times greater. That now stands at about 2 times greater. The incentive to produce exportable products is disappearing. The current account balance is bound to balloon, bringing with it profound economic and political changes. While it would be incorrect to call Chinese labor, slave labor it's not far from the facts. What resulted from the last period in U.S. history when one group of free people were compelled to compete with slave labor? Gold (wealth insurance) is at fire-sale prices now. As soon as I get that contract for designing the improved cooling system for Bernanke's printing press, I'll be buying more.

Joanne

(04/28/2003; 05:23:27 MDT - Msg ID: 102032)

Secret stash my eye

Haven't been able to read all the posts lately and am curious as to whether there's been any more info on this 10 tons of gold found in Iraq. I am completely unable to believe this. (You can lie to me only so many times.) I know precious little about precious metals but I know people and Saddam would NEVER leave that behind. He would have had a contingency plan to get that out. (Just like we do for our little stashes.)

And...Sector, Sector, don't let envy and spite determine your path. (Stay...and keep them envious and spiteful.)

silvercollector

(04/28/2003; 05:58:58 MDT - Msg ID: 102033)

CDN$ in bull mode?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/appel042803.htmlCDN buck has risen from 0.62 to 0.69 US over the last few months. The author suggests CDN junior golds, I'm not sure of that.

I wonder what the blazing (CDN) buck is really all about. Typically, the CDN economy is tied to the US so how (why?) is the CDN buck marching away? Is the commodity currency strengthening?

Any currency speculators out there?

TIA.

Sundeck

(04/28/2003; 06:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 102034)

As good as GOLD - Precious metal keeps its allure

http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/2003/04/27/business/money/money01.aspSnip:

"....
Gold is poised for a sustained bull run, offering investors increasingly good value and solid returns over the medium and long term, says Victor Hugo, an independent analyst at HugoCapital.com.

Hugo notes in his latest research that a typical long-term gold bull market lasts between 18 and 21 years. He says : " We are only in the fourth year after a trend change from a lengthy bear market to a bull one.

"This suggests that the gold price is now only in the teenage phase of a long-term bull market."

Hugo says 1999 "may have been the final trough of the bear market in the wake of the Bank of England selling and international co-operation to support the US dollar".

The Bank of England, the UK central bank, announced in May 1999 that it would sell 415 tonnes of its total bullion reserves of 715 tonnes, sparking a slump in the price of bullion to around $252/oz - a 20-year low at the time.

But supporting a firmer gold price now is the weak dollar.

Hugo says the US currency "is still vulnerable to a 30%-35% sell-off within the next two years, which also shows scope for a stronger rand, even if current economic fundamentals don't improve".

Hugo adds that the gold price can accelerate upwards as soon as key resistance levels, such as $348/oz, are breached - "with momentum evidence and behavioural counts suggesting scope for a further improvement to $445/oz and above by the end of 2004 and thereafter".

...."

Sundeck:

Oh ... to be a teenage bull...especially a golden one ... (sigh).

Sundeck

(04/28/2003; 06:33:37 MDT - Msg ID: 102035)

India Gold-Strong marriage demand fuels imports

http://reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=2641149≠wsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=marketsSnip:

"...
BOMBAY, April 28 (Reuters) - Gold imports by India, the world's largest buyer, have been strong due to demand for gold jewellery during the wedding season and increased buying by investors, traders said on Monday.

The rising trend was likely to continue as jewellery purchases for wedding gifts would be at its peak in May, which has many auspicious days for Hindu marriages, they said.

"Imports are strong despite a rise in world prices in the past one week as demand for the metal is coming from everywhere," said Ranjit Rathod, a gold importer based in the southern state of Tamil Nadu.

Spot gold was quoted at $333.75/334.50 an ounce at 0715 GMT on Monday, up from about $328 a week ago, but well below the 6-1/2-year high of $388.50 in February.

Gold imports into Tamil Nadu had currently risen about 40 percent from a year ago to 700 kg a day with people buying for weddings, investors stocking the metal and jewellers replenishing inventories, Rathod said.

Demand for gold jewellery, which forms nearly 85 percent of the domestic sales, rises during the wedding season which begins in January and runs through May. Parents and relatives customarily give gold to brides for financial security.

"There were almost zero imports in January and February as prices were very high. It's good time for jewellers to build up stocks as prices are quite comfortable," Rathod said.

India imports an average 1.6 tonnes of gold a day to meet 70 percent of its annual consumption of more than 800 tonnes, making it the world's biggest gold market with one-fifth of the global demand. The gap in demand is met by recycling and local output.

Prithvi Raj Kothari, a bullion trader, said gold imports into Bombay, the financial hub of the country, had almost doubled to 500 kg a day from the same time a year ago.

"We are also witnessing investments in gold by many Indians who are living abroad," he said.

..."

Sundeck: Demand picking up in India with the wedding season and cheaper prices..

Sundeck

(04/28/2003; 07:02:43 MDT - Msg ID: 102036)

Goldminers play Russian roulette

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/ED29Ag01.htmlSnip:

"...
Russia and China remain the largest unexploited regions for goldmining in the mining world. But compared to China, Russia has two immediate advantages. Much of the country's gold reserves have already been identified; and at a current cash cost of production of between $120 and $150 per troy ounce, Russian production can be managed on one of the lowest - and most profitable - cost bases in the world. In theory then, with low geological risk and manageable economic risk, Russian gold should be attracting a rush of mining capital to stimulate production.

Indeed, with mine output of gold rising by more than 12 percent per annum, and Russia challenging Indonesia for fourth place on the world producers' table, the pace of development here is moving much faster than in the world at large, where total mine output is falling, and will continue to fall for the foreseeable future.

..."

Sundeck: A discussion of the gold mining scene in Russia...growing, but still getting its act together, it seems.

TownCrier

(04/28/2003; 07:09:01 MDT - Msg ID: 102037)

Latest installment to our 'CB Insider' page

http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/current.htmlThe April 28th offering does not have a great deal of material of particular interest to our monetary-related studies, so you may choose to use this opportunity to scroll down for the April 14th update (in case you missed it). However, within the April 28th data is the latest speculation that ex-IMFer Stanley Fischer is on the shortlist to replace outgoing New York Fed head honcho, William McDonough.

Click url for the report brought to us courtesy of Central Banking Publications.

R.

Belgian

(04/28/2003; 07:19:20 MDT - Msg ID: 102038)

Portugal and the nazi Gold.

http://www.yad-vashem.org.il/download/about_holocaust/studies/mouca_full.pfd.The "Lisbon Connection" in the sales of looted Gold by the third reich.
Antonio Louca and Ansgar Schafer.

miner49er

(04/28/2003; 07:52:53 MDT - Msg ID: 102039)

Belgian @ Nazi Gold - Portugal link

http://www.yad-vashem.org.il/download/about_holocaust/studies/louca_full.pdftypo in the link... haven't had a chance to read yet, but a little more knowledge of history certainly helps put perspective on things...

thank you, good Sir, for your diligent work and thoughtful analysis here... always look forward to your commentary over a morning cuppa...

TownCrier

(04/28/2003; 08:54:43 MDT - Msg ID: 102040)

Weekly gold market update from WGC

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlThis report delineates CBGA sales and participants to date. In light of the previously and largely unforeseen participation by Portugal, it looks to me as if the Swiss, with their "extra capacity" to give or take over the total period, is playing a role akin to Saudi Arabia's among OPEC.

The U.S. Mint reports brisk sales within it's gold Eagle program for the first quarter of the year (224,500 ounces, compared with 34,000 ounces in the first three months of 2002).

Scroll to the previous week and you will see a chart of the depreciation pattern for the dollar against the yen, euro, and Swiss franc over the past 15 months.

Click url given above.

R.

TownCrier

(04/28/2003; 09:08:24 MDT - Msg ID: 102041)

Check out MK's latest...

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlBe sure to scan over to the right-hand column for your daily dose of informative QuickNotes to launch your day. Goes down faster than a mini-doughnut...

Find a moment to call MK, Jonathan or George today (via Marie or Jill at the front desk if you need help directing your call) to discuss a gold diversification strategy that's right for you and your family's unique needs. Be sure to inquire about the Argentino's available under the Buyers' Group program. As of Friday afternoon, Jonathan told me he had only a small amount remaining from the original offer.

R.

Belgian

(04/28/2003; 09:33:30 MDT - Msg ID: 102042)

Thanks for the url- correction, Miner49er

Whilst googling on "portugal gold" and "WJCgold", it was that date of 1997 that struck me (again) plus an article that estimated the Portugal Goldloot at 100 tonnes, so accidently close to the emergency delivery of 90 tonnes.

In the present context (PNAC) having those two old horses, Greenspan (77) and Kissinger (80) still in the running...is impressing to me.

Some more reading on the Bilderbergers and the present growing Atlantic rift within the think-tank...:
The Bilderberger (BB) group coercively manipulates global finances and establishes rigid and binding monetary rates around the world...The BB might have discussed goldmanipulation (management) when gathering in Portugal ('99) !?
Selects political figures whom the BB determines should become rulers or be removed from power (Tony-?)...
Global governance....
International regulation....
Shadow world government....

At present, the ECB might dislike an overly, inconvenient, strong euro...therefore some more POG containment by the ECB ?

And finally, let us not forget that the "invisible" daily goldtrade is 5 (five) times the official trade !!!
As the article sheds some light on what happened with Gold, 50 yrs ago...we have some idea about Gold's eternal secretive intriques.
Thanks miner.

Gandalf the White

(04/28/2003; 10:12:56 MDT - Msg ID: 102043)

WOWSERS --- SPOT is on a ROLLER COASTER RIDE !!!!

Started NY at $335.0 -- went down to $329.5 and now is headed back UP to the final Settlement value of ????.
Hang on SPOT !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(04/28/2003; 10:20:16 MDT - Msg ID: 102044)

WOWERS -- The TOP of the HILL is very BUSY <;-)

So far today GC3M --- OPEN $335.0 HIGH = $335.6 low = $329.5

THEREFORE the following GOLDHEARTS were atop the HILL !!!

**** $335.5 **** Cometose (04/27/03; 11:57:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 101993)
**** $335.4 **** Shanti (04/26/03; 07:53:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 101931)
**** $335.3 **** Magister Aurelius (04/25/03; 12:56:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 101897)
**** $335.0 **** Waverider (04/27/03; 10:41:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 101988)
**** $334.8 **** goldenpeace (04/27/03; 07:19:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 101981)
**** $334.6 **** otish mountain (04/27/03; 09:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 101986)
**** $334.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (4/24/03; 09:49:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 101824)
**** $334.4 **** luckypierre (04/26/03; 14:56:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 101954)
**** $334.2 **** contrarian (04/27/03; 06:05:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 101975)
**** $334.0 **** specie-man (04/26/03; 13:21:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 101947)
**** $333.5 **** Goldendome (04/25/03; 19:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101909)
**** $333.4 **** Mountain Top (04/26/03; 12:38:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 101945)
**** $333.3 **** Felix the Cat (04/25/03; 22:50:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 101918)
**** $333.0 **** Goldilox (04/25/03; 20:39:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 101913)
**** $332.8 **** Boilermaker (04/27/03; 09:16:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 101984)
**** $332.7 **** J-Bullion (4/23/03; 14:41:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101758)
**** $332.6 **** Kev (04/26/03; 17:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 101957)
**** $332.3 **** MidEastGold (04/26/03; 21:47:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101964)
**** $332.0 **** harryo (04/26/03; 16:53:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 101956)
**** $331.5 **** Max Rabbitz (04/27/03; 07:40:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 101982)
**** $331.1 **** Hang Tuff (04/27/03; 11:49:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 101991)
**** $331.0 **** Bizkit (4/25/03; 08:16:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 101886)
**** $330.2 **** Toolie (4/26/03; 04:14:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 101930)
**** $329.7 **** seagull (04/25/03; 23:50:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 101923)

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(04/28/2003; 10:25:13 MDT - Msg ID: 102045)

Selling Fool's Gold

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/030428/35/dyq82.htmlBy Cliff D'Arcy

According to our office dictionary, gold is "a soft, dense, yellow, chemically unreactive precious metal." Perhaps Barclays (LSE: BARC.L - news - msgs) (NYSE: BCS) thinks that British investors are pretty soft, dense and yellow as well, judging by its latest product launch!

Recent economic and geopolitical instability has increased the public perception that gold is a safe haven in troubled times. Barclays is taking advantage of this investor uncertainty by launching two bonds linked to gold prices. The bonds, which tie up your money for six months and guarantee your capital in full, are aimed at affluent investors. Here are the details:

Bond 1: if the price of gold rises by 10% or more between 19 May and 19 November, you receive a return of 5%, an annualised equivalent return of 10.25%.

Bond 2: if the price of gold falls by 10% or more over the same period, you receive a 5% return (10.25% AER).

Investors hoping to exploit the volatility of gold prices can invest in both bonds and make 2.5% (5.1% AER) if the price goes up OR down by 10%.

The minimum investment in any bond is a mere �50k (!) and the maximum �1 million. The bond is being marketed via Barclays' wealth management arm, Barclays Private Clients Premier Banking.

Can you spot the problems? If the gold price goes up or down by 10%-plus, your return is limited to 5%; Barclays takes any excess return over 5% (to pay for your capital guarantee). What's even worse is that you get no return at all - zilch, nada, zip - if the price of gold fails to rise (or fall) by at least 10%!

Yet again, we're being offered a product to meet a need that doesn't exist. If you believe that gold will return more than the stock market this year, buy gold. Alternatively, you can buy mining shares, which generally reflect the rise (or fall) in the gold price.

Just as magnets don't attract gold, I'm not attracted to these bonds and I'm hoping wealthy punters will feel the same. Then again, I could be wrong, as products that guarantee your capital while offering exposure to the stock market are attracting many cautious investors. However, the capital guarantees you're given erode your overall return so much that, in general, you'd be better off investing directly in the underlying stock market, metal or mineral.

Many similar guaranteed stock-market products have been launched in the current bear market, all of which prey on investors' desires to beat the returns from deposit accounts while preserving their capital. Usually, the charging structure is completely impenetrable, as with my D'Arcy Golden Bond.

As for me, I'll always give so-called "guaranteed" products a wide berth, as they never stand up to my number-crunching. In my Foolish opinion, the only guarantee you have is that you're almost always better off investing elsewhere!

WAC:Paper, paper and more paper!! Real Gold, get u some!!!!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/28/2003; 10:35:54 MDT - Msg ID: 102046)

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --

Contact:

George Cooper Ext 102

Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

Marie Ballard Ext 106

We look forward to your inquiry.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/28/2003; 10:38:57 MDT - Msg ID: 102047)

A good treasure never goes out of style

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/current.html

"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

Knallgold

(04/28/2003; 10:49:10 MDT - Msg ID: 102048)

Gold in Iraq

I,like most, cannot prove if there was really Gold found in Iraq.Imagine it is deposited and loaned out-how can I be certain they didn't screw me with "virtual" Gold?

Zhisheng

(04/28/2003; 11:30:47 MDT - Msg ID: 102049)

Up into the close!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1VERRY impressive rebound.

a nation of one

(04/28/2003; 12:03:48 MDT - Msg ID: 102050)

To WAC (Wide Awake Club) (4/28/03; 10:25:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 102045)

Interesting message about Barclays. If these bonds are not backed up by real gold, how will Barclays make money, except in small ways? They could lend the money out at a higher rate of interest, but that doesn't seem realistic. They could be hoping that pog will stay within 10% of where it is. But in today's market that would be extremely risky, and since Barclays probably doesn't take extreme risks, that doesn't seem realistic either. How about if the real purpose of these bonds is to raise money so that Barclays can purchase real physical gold for itself, have no seriously dangerous capital outlays while doing so, hold on to it, then, after pog goes way up, sell it, and then give the bond purchasers 5% on their money. This says that Barclays is expecting the price of gold to way, way up, and it also says that Barclays estimates for itself that the probability of gold going down by more than 10% is practically nil. Seems like a salesman's dream and a sucker's bet. The people who buy them will tend to be ill-informed at best, rich perhaps, and will be wanting to take advantage of gold's long term move without really having to commit themselves. Barclay's though, is committing itself sure enough. And the message is clear. Those in positions to know, see the writing on the wall, and it is written in gold.

Gandalf the White

(04/28/2003; 12:21:01 MDT - Msg ID: 102051)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA --- WE have WINNERS !!

DOUBLE WOWSERS !!!
That was a WILD SHOW on the COMEX today in The Big APPLE !
The price range on GC3M was from a HIGH of $335.6 to low of
$329.5 to FINALLY SETTLE at the price of $334.8 for a Change of +$1.1 over Friday close.

The FOLLOWING GOLDHEARTS were atop the HILL today !

**** $335.5 **** Cometose (04/27/03; 11:57:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 101993)
**** $335.4 **** Shanti (04/26/03; 07:53:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 101931)
**** $335.3 **** Magister Aurelius (04/25/03; 12:56:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 101897)
**** $335.0 **** Waverider (04/27/03; 10:41:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 101988)
**** $334.8 **** goldenpeace (04/27/03; 07:19:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 101981)
**** $334.6 **** otish mountain (04/27/03; 09:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 101986)
**** $334.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (4/24/03; 09:49:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 101824)
**** $334.4 **** luckypierre (04/26/03; 14:56:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 101954)
**** $334.2 **** contrarian (04/27/03; 06:05:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 101975)
**** $334.0 **** specie-man (04/26/03; 13:21:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 101947)
**** $333.5 **** Goldendome (04/25/03; 19:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101909)
**** $333.4 **** Mountain Top (04/26/03; 12:38:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 101945)
**** $333.3 **** Felix the Cat (04/25/03; 22:50:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 101918)
**** $333.0 **** Goldilox (04/25/03; 20:39:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 101913)
**** $332.8 **** Boilermaker (04/27/03; 09:16:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 101984)
**** $332.7 **** J-Bullion (4/23/03; 14:41:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101758)
**** $332.6 **** Kev (04/26/03; 17:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 101957)
**** $332.3 **** MidEastGold (04/26/03; 21:47:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101964)
**** $332.0 **** harryo (04/26/03; 16:53:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 101956)
**** $331.5 **** Max Rabbitz (04/27/03; 07:40:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 101982)
**** $331.1 **** Hang Tuff (04/27/03; 11:49:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 101991)
**** $331.0 **** Bizkit (4/25/03; 08:16:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 101886)
**** $330.2 **** Toolie (4/26/03; 04:14:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 101930)
**** $329.7 **** seagull (04/25/03; 23:50:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 101923)
===
AND you all can see that ---- at **** $334.8 **** Sir goldenpeace is the EXACT price winner of the GOLD !!
AND both Lady Waverider at **** $335.0 ****, and
Sir otish mountain at **** $334.6 **** are RUNNERSUP WINNERS of the SILVER !!
CONGRATULATIONS All !!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(04/28/2003; 12:29:39 MDT - Msg ID: 102052)

ATTENTION Please you THREE POG CONTEST WINNERS !!

Will Sir Goldenpeace, Lady Waverider, and Sir Otish Mountain please provide Marie their REAL NAMES and snailmail address so that the PRIZES may be posted !
Marie may be reached via email at marie@usagold.com
THANKS and CONGRATULATIONS !

Waverider

(04/28/2003; 12:43:42 MDT - Msg ID: 102053)

Sir Gandalf

....Phew....I need to catch my breath after that WILD ride today.

THANK YOU Sir Gandalf and THANK YOU Sir Kosares for hosting the competition! And of course CONGRATULATIONS to Sir Goldenpeace and Sir Otish Mountain. Now...to Marie so that she may know where to mail the Silver Canadian Maple Leaf when she returns from the castle vaults...Cheers,

Waverider

goldenpeace

(04/28/2003; 13:06:03 MDT - Msg ID: 102054)

Thanks to MK , Sir Gandalf and the whole Forum!

Also congrats to the other winners!
It took a wild ass guess on my part to win today.
simple intuition
Keep the faith all...gold is rising again!
Bowing deeply
Sir goldenpeace

Waverider

(04/28/2003; 13:09:10 MDT - Msg ID: 102055)

VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlNew York, Europe, Asia, South Africa, economic and geopolitical news hot off the press...

Wild Hare

(04/28/2003; 13:21:08 MDT - Msg ID: 102056)

The Dollar Crisis

http://www.business-in-asia.com/dollar_crisis.htmlSnippet:

Question 9: In Chapter 9 you state that "The over-indebted American economy has entered a recession that is likely to be as extreme and prolonged as the economic boom that preceded it." These are very strong words. Do you really feel that a strong recession is inevitable and if so why?

Answer: Economic cycles generally exhibit a considerable degree of symmetry. Big booms are generally followed by big busts. The excesses of the 1980s and 1990s were unlike anything witnessed since The Roaring Twenties. The savings rate of the public has fallen to the lowest levels every recorded. A rapidly inflating property bubble has enabled American consumers to extract huge amounts of equity from their homes so that they can continue living beyond their means. When interest rates bottom, home prices will stop rising, equity extraction will cease, consumption will fall and the second phase of the New Paradigm Recession will begin.

No mention of gold but you can connect the dots.

slingshot

(04/28/2003; 13:32:27 MDT - Msg ID: 102057)

Winners

WOW, what a ride. Congrats to the winners of the contest.
Slingshot---------------<>

J-Bullion

(04/28/2003; 13:37:32 MDT - Msg ID: 102058)

The Dollar Crisis

In regards to the book on the Dollar Crisis, it sums up:

"It may be hard to adjust to this fact, but a global central bank is needed to control the global money supply"

UGHHH!!

Keynesian economics, the same crap that got us into this mess. Where are all the Austrian School Economists these days. A global central bank so they can confiscate wealth on a global scale (the central banks are the cause of the problem, so the cure is to build another bigger one??). Just wonderful.

Cometose

(04/28/2003; 13:45:21 MDT - Msg ID: 102059)

VNX

VOlatility Index on the Nasdaq hasn't been this low for quite a while ; only figures only went back to jan 2001 .
They are quite low .....
The VIX on the DOW is relatively low but from looking at the weekly figures going back to Jan 2000 , its been suppressed relative to the Nasdaq ; could be another indication of manipulation in the market...
probably won't matter too much if and when the dollar breaks...

Can anyone tell me why the Transports would be having such a high ride ( new intermediate highs there , not confirmed by other Dow COmponents...8521 supposedly a magic number...) DID the gov't take over the airlines behind closed doors....hear AMR is in big trouble and Delta and UNITED already went into chapter 11......am i missing something.....
or is it all GAS as IN HOT AIR Dont' tell me that the RAILROADS TRUCKERS AND THE UPS AND FED EX are taking up the slack with a gangbuster shipping season....what are they shipping ; NO ONE IS MAKING ANYTHING>....

Black Blade

(04/28/2003; 14:03:28 MDT - Msg ID: 102060)

Experts say many boomers will take debt into older years

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascitystar/business/5718295.htm
Snippit:

Baby boomers have enjoyed an unparalled standard of living, but financial planners say their boomer clients almost uniformly vow to retire their debts before they retire themselves, recognizing it as an obstacle to an enjoyable, active lifestyle when they finish working. "As they get older I do see a very focused effort on wanting to be debt-free," said Adam Van Dyke, a certified financial planner in Irvine, Calif., whose 275 clients are mostly boomers between 40 and 60. "They realize they're behind on their nest egg accumulation goal. And they take a look at their credit card debt or car loans and see that getting in the way," he said.

Debt has lost many of the moralistic qualities Americans have historically ascribed it. Boomers' Depression-era parents found debt a rare and necessary evil, employed only to buy a house or perhaps a car. Not so their children, who are deeply enmeshed in an era of paying with plastic for lunch at Burger King. Easy terms and an expansion of credit to virtually all income levels have left Americans awash in revolving debt -- credit card and other monthly balances now top $1.7 trillion. And boomers have racked up a sizable chunk of that amount, spurred by an optimism financial planners have found surprising, especially given the huge losses in jobs and stock values the past few years. But as they age, many boomers grow fearful about the size of their debt and the prospect that it will muddle their retirements, planners say.

Among those enrolled in credit-counseling programs, average revolving debt has surged to $16,000 -- more than double the $7,000 people carried in the mid 1990s, according to Amerix Corp., a payment services provider to 300,000 people enrolled with consumer counseling agencies. Boomers have about $1,200 more debt, on average, than the general population, said Mike Croxson, president of the Columbia, Md.-based firm. "On an unsecured basis, the debt-to-income ratio of a baby boomer went from about 44 percent in 1998 to above 50 percent today," he said.

Black Blade: As the economy deteriorates, the dollar weakens, unemployment rises, investment returns fall, etc. Fewer will find they are able to keep up with growing debt. I saw a report today that Dubya will likely be the first president since Herbert Hoover to preside over a term where there was over all rising unemployment. Worse yet, the New York Times reports that "non-reportable unemployment" is rising as frustrated unemployed give up searching for employment. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough cash for emergencies, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

Black Blade

(04/28/2003; 14:14:04 MDT - Msg ID: 102061)

Average pay is dropping for first time since 1980s

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/3848539.html
Snippit:

For the first time since the 1980s, the average pay of workers at all income levels is falling. The inflation-adjusted weekly pay of the median worker -- the one at the point where half of salaries are above and half are below -- fell 1.5 percent between early last year and early this year, according to the Labor Department. It was the biggest drop since the mid-1990s. After more than two years of canceling investments in new equipment and laying off workers, many companies are turning to the pay of remaining employees as they try to stay profitable during an economic slowdown. The weak labor market, which has lost more than 2 million jobs in the past two years, is allowing them to restrain pay without fear of losing workers, executives say. But the wage slowdown is also leaving many households with less money to spend, helping to make the current economic recovery the weakest in decades.

Black Blade: And with weaker US dollars to boot!

Belgian

(04/28/2003; 14:26:32 MDT - Msg ID: 102062)

@ Towncrier

The Swiss as "swingprovider" for CB-Gold !!! I fully agree with your "genial" (another one) insight Sir Randy.
Remember that the Swiss announced in the early days of their goldsales (sales-?) that they refused to sell through BIS and preferred (wanted-demanded) to sell their CB-Gold through their "own" channels (customers)...the Swiss way (no block auctions).

I don't know if there is any relationship with a chart that is intriging me :
The amount of crude oil barrils per ounce Gold. POG divided by POO. A very remarkable chart for the past 3 decades :
A "Horizontal" pattern oscillating between 2 parallels.
POG:POO, 30 years between lows of 10 and highs of +25.
Today : 334$ : 24,5$ = 13,6
The constand average for the past 30 years (POG:POO) is the Finonacci number *16* (1,618-golden section).

How is it possible that POG and POO relate within a well defined, unchanged zone, for so long !? Horizontally and not up or down trending.
POG and POO went to extremes (up and down) but their relationship remained oscillating around that 16 average-quotient !

OPEC (Saudi swingproducer) has remained very cooperative within the "taker" and a "maker", alternating, oil markets.
And POG "also" was very adaptive in adjusting its price to the different oilmarket circumstances.
1981 : POG 8O0$ : POO 40$ = 20
1999 : POG 250$ : POO 12$/10$ = 20/25

POG/POO charts can be found at Zelotes and sharelynx.

There must be a theory/logic behind this POG/POO relationship...Horizontal one !
The more we are confronted today with blatant POG *containment* (generally aknowledged) and POO *wars* for all to see !
Let me speculate a bit :

Arabian OPEC faction wanted to get out the 10-20 plus horizontal box and give the POO an upwards trend in the aftermath of Gulf war I !? The two different factions of the Gold-Containment (CBs) wanted to remain in the POG/POO-dollar box...for different reasons ($-�) !?

Crude Oil and Gold are two different tangibles and should "normally" behave in a different and particular way.
But they don't and relate in a very peculiar constant way.

POG:POO made an ATL (all time low-30 years) of 7 in 2000 at the stockmarket's ATH ! POG/POO is trending up (7 > 16) since 2000 dispite Gold AND Oil wars !!!

Up until now, this POG/POO interference seems to be superficially "normal", in the past 30 yrs of US$ context.
With the sole difference that the war-efforts to make POG and POO, inter-relate are (have to) increasing, enormously.

Could the CBs gold-sales be a serious part in holding the POG/POO relkationship, intact...up until the euro has a chance to interfere substantially or take over from the dollar ? If I would see a POG:POO > 35...we go out of the box and the dollar goes (is) into the backseat. A new ATL for POG/POO (lower than 7)...the dollar-reserve remains the ruler .

Let us not forget that the globe's crude oil reserves have an important, unconvenient aspect :
Arabian ME oilreserves - production costs = 2$ to 3$ /barril
Other world's oil " " = 6$ to 10$
An enormous difference within a strictly controlled/managed, price range. How does one manages a POO as to keep everybody happy, most of the time, producers and consumers all over the world. Answer : A STABLE DOLLAR RESERVE AS AN OIL CURRENCY ! How can this be achieved ?
Answer : WITH A STABLE GOLDPRICE ! In other words...the POG/POO-Box.

Is it because we are losing the Gold-War...that we have to start the Oil-War ???

Socrates964

(04/28/2003; 14:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 102063)

nation of one

...how will Barclays make money...?

Let's make the entirely hypothetical and completely unsubstantiated assumption that Barclays is up to its neck in gold derivative problems.

Isn't this gold bond a jolly wheeze? Let's assume its derivative book starts to bleed around $350. The bond effectively locks in its exposure down here, since if it invests the proceeds in gold futures and gold goes down, its loss on the futures is offset by the positive mark to market on its derivative position, and vice-versa if it goes up (more likely, IMHO) - all achieved, of course, with third-party funds. Just an idea, of course.

Max Rabbitz

(04/28/2003; 15:08:54 MDT - Msg ID: 102064)

Roller Coaster

Congrats to the winners. What a ride. It felt like negative G forces turning to positive 9G on a dime. I feel a little dizzy. Are these rides legal? Think I'll go sit down for awhile.

Max

Black Blade

(04/28/2003; 15:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 102065)

Why the Sars virus has brought Beijing's rulers out in a fever of anxiety

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,482-661605,00.html
Snippit:

When China's leaders turn left out of their residential compound in Beijing they instantly come to Tiananmen Square. As they shuttle across the vast expanse to emergency meetings on the Sars epidemic this week, they will be met with silence. No more than a dozen visitors are now loitering in the world's biggest urban space. The virus is emptying out the city. Up to one million people have fled Beijing and millions more are hiding in their homes to escape infection.

The past few weeks have provided an extraordinary display of incompetence, obfuscation and obstructionism. Beijing's attitude is summed up by the response to a hospital inspection by the World Health Organisation two weeks ago. To hide the scale of the Sars problem, highly infectious patients were packed into ambulances and driven around the city for hours until the WHO inspectors had left. Outraged doctors later leaked the story to journalists.

When the Government finally admitted the full extent of the epidemic, the populace panicked and Beijing became engulfed in its biggest political crisis since 1989 � bigger than the spy plane stand-off with the US two years ago, or the Nato bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, or various Taiwan crises. All of these enhanced the regime's domestic power, if anything. Whether due to patriotism or propaganda, Chinese rallied around the crimson flag. The political impact of the Sars crisis is likely to go in the other direction. Fear of coming into contact with the infected has shut down most business activity. Conferences are cancelled and public meeting spaces are closed. Retail sales, an economic mainstay, have collapsed and foreign investors, the driving force in industry, now shun the country.

Black Blade: It appears that most countries have been able to isolate the infected and slow the advance of the spreading virus (so far anyway) except in Mainland China. It remains to be seen how this all works out. Meanwhile concern over the virus has laid waste to the Asian economies in recent weeks and that may continue for a while yet.

Black Blade

(04/28/2003; 15:54:54 MDT - Msg ID: 102066)

The Washington Agreement Suddenly Gets Messy

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html
Snippit:

I was surprised to learn this past week that Portugal was a signer on the Washington Agreement. Since 1999, the gold seller queue was well known to gold market participants and Portugal wasn't on it. Nevertheless here comes Banco do Portugal completely unannounced to sell ninety tonnes of gold over the last three months. The World Gold Council makes reference to the sales as resulting from previous option agreements going back to 1997 and 1998.

It appears that this gold fed into the market by Portugal has someone's name on it - someone interested in taking delivery, otherwise the recipient of the metal would have settled in paper, payment would have been rendered (in paper), and none of us would have been the wiser. No. . .someone wanted this gold and if they are holding any more Portuguese gold paper, they are likely to want more. It is unlikely that Portugal's gold will see the light of day for the interium, or at least until the developing international monetary and political crisis has blown over.

Black Blade: In a sense it is almost funny how much bad luck Portugal's central bank has had in regard to their official gold holdings. A few years ago the bank "lost" out "big time" when they loaned out several tons of gold and the counter party defaulted. Yep, they completely lost it as the counter party to the arrangement simply went belly up. No one is talking at the Portuguese CB or at any other central bank on how often this type of fiasco occurs or if it has occurred elsewhere. No one is talking about who the buyers of western central bank gold are either. Usually it is just a transfer from one central bank to another � a shell game of sorts that tend to get the gold markets a bit over excited for nothing and leaving antagonists sniveling over central bank sales. I would wonder if the buyer this time is located in the Far East though. As I said before, no one is openly talking about it, but China's central bank has been on the prowl for more gold in recent years and with an over abundance of US dollars (from a lop-sided trade balance) and a need to get rid of that excess burden it would seem logical that they would be prime candidates as buyers of Portuguese gold. There are "rumors" just under the surface that they are once again on the prowl for gold and have been accumulating much more gold in recent months adding to large accumulations late last year, sometimes from other central banks and sometimes in the physical market as direct buyers from non-US gold producers (they have been direct-buyers of S. African gold before). Other potential candidates are SE Asian central banks (such as the Philippines and Singapore). We might rule out the Japanese central bank as they are in a serious bind and are trying to "buck up the buck" by scuttling the Yen and buying US dollars in a desperate bid to gain more share of a dwindling export market. We may never know who the gold buyers are but there is no question that large quantities of physical gold are making a move from West to East (a transfer of wealth of "epic proportions").

Thanks MK

TownCrier

(04/28/2003; 16:16:51 MDT - Msg ID: 102067)

The red inky rubber stamp has 'spoken'

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/current.htmlCongratulations to everyone who found the motivation to act swiftly and lock in their claim of Argentinos.

Stay tuned for the next Buyers' Group. Centennial's clientele can get an ADVANCED notice of these special offers by making sure we have your latest e-contact info. Send your name and e-mail address to jill@usagold.com

Black Blade

(04/28/2003; 16:28:54 MDT - Msg ID: 102068)

Has Spot Got Fleas or Does He Sense Something?

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=1&sBackUrl=&dbrushwidth=&charttype=&gd1=&gd2=&benchmark=∈fos=∈dtype1=∈dtype2=&volumen=
Wild looking gold chart! BTW Townie, those Argentinos look nice! I guess I will either have to get a better return on my investments or get off the "Bone Pile" for the next offering. ;-)

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!

CoBra(too)

(04/28/2003; 17:10:51 MDT - Msg ID: 102069)

Portugal and other official Gold Sales ...

have been under heightened scrutiny since the WA.

I recall having asked a similar question, if any gold sales of the austrian CB would fit in the WA a while ago.

Meanwhile, we've had to endure the ongoing querulant wailing of Mr. Welteke of the BuBa to be part of Another WA as a willing seller of his citizens true and maybe last wealth (long before - spoken for?).

My own CB won't even talk about gold - OK, or not at least they're minting some Phyllies - though, I've got that sinking feeling that these guys are hiding behind the screen of IMF et al and do everything in order NOT to upset the US Dollar apple cart.

I'm upset, or shouldn't I be - YET?

Go, figure! cb2

TownCrier

(04/28/2003; 17:30:38 MDT - Msg ID: 102070)

CoBra(too), about Austrian sales within the "WA"

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlFor a delineation of how much and when, see the table I posted today that is embedded within the latest WGC weekly commentary. Use the url above to open the page.

R.

silvercollector

(04/28/2003; 19:17:58 MDT - Msg ID: 102072)

I just emailed that pic to my brother-in-law

who think gold bugs are whacked.

The subject line was "All is calm except in New York"

21mabry

(04/28/2003; 19:38:33 MDT - Msg ID: 102073)

(No Subject)

Had to write a paper today on Iraq situation for a foreign affairs class.I listed the website as one of my sources at the end of paper.Prof. may look at website and I will be branded a dissenter.LOL 21

a nation of one

(04/28/2003; 20:01:47 MDT - Msg ID: 102074)

To Socrates964 (4/28/03; 14:45:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 102063)

I should expect there would be a number of ways that Barclays might make money on their bonds. I was just
expressing what seemed most obvious to me. The main thing, I think, though, that is most probably
consistent with what they are doing, is that they think the pog will rise, and that they think the odds of it
declining are negligible. If the instruments are simple, that is, merely a product meant to be profitable on its
own, then the comparatively small risk perceived on the downside would justify the offering. To me this
makes the most sense, primarily because it does not posit complications unnecessarily.

a nation of one

(04/28/2003; 20:21:36 MDT - Msg ID: 102075)

some additional thoughts about Barclays and Socrates964's observations

I find a number of obstacles in assuming that a firm like Barclays would be moved to offer bonds on account of its own previous derivative involvements. The main one is that an attitude of extremely liberal risk-taking would be required on the part of those designing and approving the bonds for sale. It may be that such wild risk-taking is well established in the firm. I don't know. And this is the second obstacle. Because it is outside what reasonably ought to be expected of a reputable firm, some sort of proof, verification, or confirmation of the existence of the implied liberal risk-taking attitude needs to be shown, either by hard evidence, or by logical deduction. And if by logical deduction, the criteria needs to be pretty strict. A very high standard for logical deduction is not something I believe is encountered very frequently on the Internet, or in widespread periodical publications either, for that matter.

steady

(04/28/2003; 21:09:34 MDT - Msg ID: 102076)

hmmm

Prof. may look at website and I will be branded a dissenter.LOL 21

hahah nice try! perception! this web site is not about dissenters nor agreeres
this web site is about gold. plain and simple!

Black Blade

(04/28/2003; 21:41:57 MDT - Msg ID: 102077)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

CRAP VERSUS GAAP

By listening to the financial experts, you would believe that all is going well in corporate America. Earnings are beating estimates, which should come as no surprise; they always do. That is because original earnings estimates have recently been adjusted lower just before actual results were reported. The improvement in earnings that the financial media and analysts are heralding has taken place only in the pro forma realm. According to S&P pro forma or CRAP (cloudy reporting accounting principles), earnings have increased from $11.96 to $12.39. However, actual earnings according to GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) have moved slightly lower from $11.43 to $11.40. Therefore, the numbers you hear bandied about on the cable shows or in the financial press are CRAP numbers and not GAAP numbers. In other words, we are still dealing with fictional numbers or make believe numbers that don't exist. These aren't the numbers that companies use when they turn in their results to the SEC. The SEC requires GAAP numbers, not CRAP numbers so widely used by the financial media and Wall Street.

The easiest way to think about the numbers you hear each day is that they are pro forma numbers. Pro forma numbers mean that something is missing and has been left out or omitted from earnings. Even on a day like today where companies such as P&G announced earnings that beat estimates, it was due to the exclusion of certain costs that P&G said that earnings would grow this quarter by 12 percent instead of 10 percent. The extra percent was due entirely to pro forma exclusions. A partial list of expenses left out in calculating pro forma profits is highlighted below.

* Goodwill impairment charges.
* Gains/losses from asset sales. They count them when they are gains and exclude them when they are losses.
* Pension gains. They simply don't exist but are created through accounting assumptions.
* Employee stock option expense.
* Restructuring charges from plant closing and costs associated with firing workers.
* Writedowns of depreciable of depreciable or amortizable operating costs.

I could go on and on but suggest that the readers familiarize themselves with the core earnings concept at the S&P website to keep themselves out of the "spin zone."

Black Blade: A good run down on the bogus Wall Street spin of "beat the street" and other drivel touted by Wall Street pimps and CNBC carnival barkers. Some good charts too � "a picture is worth a thousand words". After today's "slap on the wrist" against Wall Street bankers and investment that were engaged in massive fraud I would not expect to see any honest changes either. The SEC is an impotent and toothless tiger that rarely if ever enforces the law and the states that went after Wall Street crooks led by NY AG Eliott Spitzer is a joke. Hopefully the coming onslaught of class action and individual law suits, and arbitrations will do more (but I doubt it as the only likely winners will be the ambulance chasers).

Black Blade

(04/28/2003; 22:32:43 MDT - Msg ID: 102078)

Natural-Gas Markets Prove Volatile

http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=NR200304281180.3_3c5c00120a228932
Snippit:

Apr. 27--Natural gas prices are on track to be their highest ever during a summer. Not all industry officials consider it a crisis yet, but producers and regulators say the nation's gas markets are so unstable that they will continue sapping the economy until long-term changes are put into place. Continued instability would mean near-record electricity rates for most North Texas residents this summer, with natural gas fueling most of the state's power plants. It would also mean cutbacks or shutdowns at factories and other industrial users of natural gas. Many officials are also worried about supply shortages later this year if producers can't replenish storage facilities in time for the high-demand winter season. In the last three years, prices have spiked as much as 500 percent between the summer and winter. "I believe that we're in for short-term price spikes again in the future," said Deputy Secretary of the Interior Steven Griles, who discussed the natural gas market Friday in a conference hosted by Southern Methodist University's Maguire Energy Institute.

About 25 percent of the nation's energy supply comes from natural gas, compared with about 38 percent from crude oil. More than 90 percent of the new power plants built over the last decade run on natural gas, replacing higher-polluting coal and oil plants. Amid the price uncertainty, investors are holding back as producers wait to decide whether drilling more wells is profitable. The industry also faces the problems of aging pipelines and other infrastructure that are necessary for supplying power plants and consumers. But accessing capital has been difficult in the post-Enron environment. Producers say they need greater access to drill on federal lands and tax incentives, which were included in versions of an energy bill moving through Congress. "Consumers do not think of energy as something that should be volatile," said Roger Cooper, executive vice president of the American Gas Association. "We're going to have political problems if gas prices remain as high as they are now."

Black Blade: Not a surprise really though I fully expect to see an energy crisis develop late this year as heating season approaches. It should be interesting as Wall Street takes notice once they glance away from oil. We should see some fair injection rates over the next few weeks as the mild temps lead to complacency and moderate prices and then � whammo! Realization of an impending shortage as NatGas drill activity fails to lead to adequate injection rates during summer and drill season comes to an end just before heating season. We may be fortunate to have a crippling economic depression that will lead to some demand destruction or by some miracle this summer and next winter are exceptionally mild. This is a sneaky problem that is off the radar for Wall Street right now. The "movers and shakers" in New York are focused on oil and distracted on other issues.

Goldilox

(04/28/2003; 22:48:11 MDT - Msg ID: 102079)

ino gold chart is even wilder than COMEX

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDOWhat is the deal with the ino FOREX chart? Is the swing from 223-334 real or bad data? It looks like two trades have occurred in the 223 range and then the price bounced back to 334. Are they front selling like the NYSE specialists?

Gonlyold

(04/28/2003; 22:54:17 MDT - Msg ID: 102080)

Bad Debt Suicides Surge in Japan

http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/2003/03/09/business/5352349.htmThis is your brain- :)
This is your brain on credit- :(
This is your brain on gold- :)
This is your brain on gold margin calls- :(

Gold and cash good.

Credit bad.

otish mountain

(04/28/2003; 23:15:00 MDT - Msg ID: 102081)

Thank you Sir Gandalf & Sir Kosares

For your diligent efforts and generosity. This silver maple prize will be very much appreciated. I am honored.

Sincerely,
otish mountain

Belgian

(04/29/2003; 01:08:42 MDT - Msg ID: 102082)

@ Wild Hare

Thanks for posting "The dollar crisis" in #102056.
But...the writer does mention "GOLD" !!!
Question 12 > Answer....The US current account deficits have acted as an important subsidy to the rest of the world, but they (US) have also flooded the world with dollars, WICH HAVE REPLACED GOLD as the new international reserve asset !!!!!!!!!

And this comes from a IMF/WB employee (the writer R.Duncan).
Adds more significance to what he has been writing.

Global Central Bank and a Global Money Supply...???
My immediate reaction was...Up until now, it is
*** GOLD *** that has been managed "globally" ! First as a goldstandard (fixed POG) and then contained as an exchange reserve (papergold). The "East" is in the process of forcing the "West" to deregulate Gold ! The old dollar-system has run is course, illustrated again by this article, describing how the global dollar(reserve)-economy is getting stuck.

Isn't it funny that none of the globe's academics are considering the option of "Free Gold" !!!-??? Global sclerosis !!!
No problemas...we will evolve to Free Gold all by itself in a natural reflex of selfdefense and sense for ultimate safety. The complacent West will soon learn from the progressive East.

Waverider

(04/29/2003; 01:50:26 MDT - Msg ID: 102083)

GOODBYE EUROPE ... HELLO "EURUSSIA"

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/wallenwein042903.htmlBelgian - this one's for you - would appreciate your comments if you feel so inclined. Cheers,
Waverider

TownCrier

(04/29/2003; 05:10:52 MDT - Msg ID: 102084)

Rising S.A. rand squeezes miners

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030429/minerals_harmony_rand_1.htmlJOHANNESBURG, April 29 (Reuters) - Bernard Swanepoel, the head of South Africa's number three gold producer Harmony Gold, warned on Tuesday...

"If the rand stays at 7.20 rand (against the dollar), then there will be fairly significant retrenchments in the industry," he told an analysts' presentation after reporting third quarter results which were hit by the gains in the rand.

"I wonder if the decision-makers appreciate that they can destroy more jobs with a stronger rand than they can create. It's unrealistic, irrational and irresponsible," he said.

"At 7.20, at least 20 percent of those jobs are threatened,"...

--------(see url for full article)----------

Two items. First: When faced with profitability as an ongoing concern, owning a (depleting) mine with operations subject to various "political" risk is very obviously a gamble compared to ownership of the metal instead. Know you objectives and tolerance for risk of loss when you invest and diversify.

Second: When you see a presentation like this from Swanepoel, you can begin to understand how the social pressures are overwhelming for use of monetary units that depreciate like paper -- even for those living in a gold rich country like South Africa. The nearly universal lay of the land seems to be, "use paper to keep your job, use gold to keep your wealth".

Call Centennial to make arrangements to keep what you've earned.

R.

LeSin

(04/29/2003; 05:15:30 MDT - Msg ID: 102085)

EURASIA a Suitable CHUNK of MOTHER EARTH for The EURO

Waverider

Thou dost think far too small, yes? "Eurussia" (not big enough)

I might be incorrect, however I do believe that the Urals Mountains roughly divide Russia, West Russia is European and East Russia is Asian. To the West of the Urals is Europe and to the East of the Urals is Asia. As they would say in Texas, "quite a spread" - 11 or 12 Time Zones.

The 'Quiet' EURO does very much like/desire/wills the same territories and continents that the tired US$ now serves with debt and more.

Physical gold in any form - own it and hold it very close

Cheers - "S"

LeSin

(04/29/2003; 06:02:33 MDT - Msg ID: 102086)

AHOY!!! FOA & TRAIL GUIDE --

"Rains Have Arrived & We are Watching These Crops Grow"
FOA & Trail Guide - Hello! - Hello!! - Hello!!!

How does your garden grow?

We have experienced many sunsets since you last past this way with offers of quenching drinks of sweet rain water and guidance along this lonesome golden trail.

Hope to hear from you real soon.

Happy Trails to You & Cheers "S"

Clink!

(04/29/2003; 06:14:23 MDT - Msg ID: 102087)

@21mabry re your class paper

Young man, it may come as something of a surprise to you, but not only was I pleased to see this forum listed among your references when I read your submission, but I got here before you, too !

C!

Clink!

(04/29/2003; 06:15:16 MDT - Msg ID: 102088)

@21Mabry

OK, OK, just kidding.

silvercollector

(04/29/2003; 06:28:40 MDT - Msg ID: 102089)

Roach's latest - a barnburner

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030425-fri.html#anchor0

Cavan Man

(04/29/2003; 06:43:56 MDT - Msg ID: 102090)

silvercollector

Roach sounds like an Austrian economist.

What Roach detailed would be what FOA was fond of calling, "pulling our all the stops". It is happening in real time today.

Thanks for the quantification...CM

Belgian

(04/29/2003; 07:16:05 MDT - Msg ID: 102091)

@ Lady the Waverider

Yep, I enjoyed the "hot" soup, Wallenwein has been serving.What else is there on the menu...mmmmmmmmm,njammi.

But it was Sir Kosares who suggested, first, the higher probability of the formation of a firmer EuRussia instead of the UK joining Euroland.

A lot will depend on how the former US-Germany cooperation on the Balkan-Caspian region, corridor, will evolve into the relationship with Russia towards the US !

Putin meets Tony, Brussels talks about the formation of a rapid deployment force (and more) and the "Palestinization" of Iraq is on the rails while Arafat wants to see the famous roadmap.

The euro is holding its 10% advantage over the dollar exchange rate. Low global oilreserves maneuver the POO lower to fill the tanks. While Tim Wood of miningweb is suddenly interested in the U.N. !???

Euroland (the euro) AND the US (the dollar) urgently need
"lebensraum" (living space). Both, � and $ want to expand to counter all forms of domestic economic "saturation".
A very unhealthy saturation, primarely because of Debt and lack of Growth. Yes, more of the same fierce competition between $ and � around GOLD ! Not only currency competition but now more and more *explicit* geopolitical competition.
This as a result of the "doctrines" now having become public knowledge with "direct" discussions and camp-formation....with us or against us (our ideology or yours- ?)(our strategy or yours-?) : Tension Building...escalation instead of cool/cooler/discrete maneuvering.

Russia is FAR from an ideal partner, at present ! Euroland will certainly have some dances with the Russian bear but will NOT yet kiss mother Russia. The trans-Atlantic relationship has cooled...but might warm up at an appropiate moment. NOTHING is forever ! Everything is Transitional !

GOLD WILL BE THE ULTIMATE WINNER ! The dollar will never die...it is the *** dollar-reserve *** that will be altered.
The euro-concept is the vehicle that will carry the main responsibility for making the transition to Free Gold possible. The dollar-dominated world had to carry on with the dollar-system because of lack of an alternative. The euro and evolving Euroland * IS * the dollar-alternative !

We never have to exclude a sudden 180� turn of the US and its (the globe's) dollar-reserve !!!!!!!
I personaly would welcome this outcome...if possible, without anymore human sufferings of all kinds. Life is too short and can be so sweet, for doing destructive idiocies.
Alliances come and go. Now it is the dollar-reserve-system that *must* alter ! It would be very unfortunate that this should have to happen with war-logics. But I'm afraid w're already too far down the road for a peaceful transition.

Today, Tony the poodle is speaking some more threathening language vis a vis a Euroland that isn't agreeing anymore with an old Atlantic friend (its administration) going on doctrine-drugs...and in the ban of revengists.

Yes, goodbye Europe...Hello EUROLAND ! Let's dance with Russia and China and ME...but no kisses ! With the dollar, euro AND Gold if still possible, but surely without the dollar-Reserve ! Every hot soup must cool down before eating.

What does your *female intuition* tell you, Lady Waverider ?
Please let us know !

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(04/29/2003; 07:38:55 MDT - Msg ID: 102092)

@Belgian - Dollar Reserves

Meneer Belgie, Dank u well.

That suttle difference between the $ and the $ Reserves. Very important indeed.

Tate

(04/29/2003; 09:00:54 MDT - Msg ID: 102093)

MK suggested Portugal gold is delivery

Several days back MK suggested Portugal gold is delivery (I would not call it sales) to someone taking physical, no paper game. Due to US incursion to Iraq, Gold Dinar development it must be coming from the East. For how long western central banks will be willing to make such final deliveries? Portuguese gold and Nazi connections. Is this another extortion on a part of US/Europe banking elite?

Lothar of the Hill People

(04/29/2003; 10:00:21 MDT - Msg ID: 102094)

Reeling, slipping, falling, rising again...

...Lothar takes slow uncertain steps returning to the peace and comfort of the dark, still, ancient home of the Hill People. Head aching, muscles strained, vision blurred--the riotous games, the blows dealt and received, the downed flagons, the heady ride has exacted a toll on aged Lothar.

Lothar bows to Sirs Goldenpeace, Waverider, and
Otish mountain--those left standing on the top of mount are worthy of their reward!

When wounds heal and strength is restored, Lothar shall again enter this great hall and we shall speak of golden things.

I am Lothar, of the Hill People.

admin

(04/29/2003; 10:19:04 MDT - Msg ID: 102095)

MKs Commentary & Review

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

New Aden Sisters/center column feature.

New QuickNotes.

Comment on $1.4 billion Wall Street Settlement

"Yes, the little guy, who is not smart about the nuances, may get misled. Such is the nature of my business." Lehman Brothers stock analyst, as quoted in documents released yesterday by the Securities and Exchange Commission

Note: For those with an interest, I put my read on yesterday's Wall Street settlement under Personal Notes (left, below). Snippet - "You do not need to be on the inside to benefit from the ownership of gold."

Gandalf the White

(04/29/2003; 12:13:28 MDT - Msg ID: 102096)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- Essay Contest WINNERS !!

ESSAY CONTEST WINNERS !

The Gold "Willy" to Sir Goldendome
TOP PRIZE WINNER !!! because he BEST answered the QUESTION !!!
AND additional PRIZES --- An one ounce Canadian SILVER MAPLE LEAF to the HONORABLE MENTION poem by Sir Cockerell, ---- AND [ for the fun of it ! ] also an one ounce Canadian SILVER MAPLE LEAF --for the "OFF SUBJECT Toto Tale" [ SPOT loves stories ! <;-)] by the story teller "John the Jute".

Sir Mk also says that the following Essays are to be transferred to a SPECIAL ROOM in the USAGOLD Castle's "HALL OF FAME" [ Did you see this "Townie" --- <;-) ]

Will each of the WINNERS -- Sir Goldendome, Sir Cockerell and Sir John the Jute please provide their REAL NAMES and snailmail address to Marie via email at "marie@usagold.com" so that the PRIZES may be timely posted !! Thanks

AND FINALLY, THANKS -- to all --- that provided entries to this ESSAY CONTEST. The diversity of these entries and the thought that is given to "paint a picture with golden words" is impressive to this Ol�e Wiz and makes the effort of judging the entries VERRRY difficult, but enjoyable by both Townie and me !
<;-)

===
Goldendome (04/25/03; 19:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 101909)
Why...does Gold seem to be bouncing back?

Because of debt--crushing debt; a dollar that is being continually and steadily debased, and the increasing realization of false promises in the markets and in our lives!

Debt--stacked three and one half times our GDP. Debt-- that built our "high" standard of living, now threatening to crush us under interest and principal.

A dollar reproduced weekly by the billions, free to those, first in line to receive the frog skins, but quickly reducing the value of all other dollars produced before them.

And the false promises: An economy set to rebound? Hardly! Rebound with auto and home sales at levels that more resemble the top of a boom, than the bottom of a bust? Savings interest near zero? Jobs--gone. And stock prices that would make placing bets in Las Vegas appear appealing. All the while, baby boomers march in legion, slowly, relentlessly, toward their rewards---Hollowed out 401k's, bankrupt and under-funded pension promises. We march on, ever closer, with hope-- toward a Ponzi pot of gold -- Social Security... will it still be there, for us, or for those coming later?

The pot of gold at the end of the rainbow--the golden sunset--the golden years? Any pots of Gold that we encounter will likely be of our own filling, through our own foresight and planning. The small amounts that we spent for "Sovereigns" here and there... The pretty "Roosters" that caught our eyes... The history and magnificence of the "Saints" and "Liberties" that we would buy, but would not sell. Then the Eagles, Guldens, Coronas-each with it's own story; and with our memories. These are choices, not sacrifices...The legacy that we choose to spend, or to pass on to others, who, in fact, may need them more than we.

-----Goldendome

========Honorable Mention !!!!

cockerel1 (4/23/03; 13:23:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 101753)
The media ridicule and laugh, they do not understand
That Gold is a Wondrous Metal revered in every land
To them the almighty dollar, will be KING for ever more,
The yellow relic is destined to be "booted" out the door.

But wait for just a minute, is that a rally we all can see?
How can that useless metal mean anything to you and me?
"In recent times, my foolish friends, this "glow" has suffered pain,
But finally, the time has come, for it to shine again."

Go get you some, you'll not regret,
For it has not reached potential yet,
The "green" you treasure is doomed to fall,
But GOLD will always be loved by all."

And so the odyssey has begun, and the war is almost over,
The pessimists are crying "wolf" as they quickly head for cover,
No more will our relic be shoved off to the side,
Victory is ours, my friends and you all helped to turn the tide.

====

AND THEN we have the well done "OFF SUBJECT" fairy tale !

John the Jute (04/26/03; 11:37:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 101942)

"Why is the grass pink to-day?" I asked.

Dorothy Gale looked up from her game with Toto. "Why not?" she asked in return.

"Because grass is supposed to be green," I replied.

"Well that may be true in the Kingdom of the Jutes," she said, "but it rains every other day there. Besides, aren't you used to cherry trees being pink in the Springtime?"

"Well, yes," I replied, puzzled.

"There you are then," she said.

"Oh, I see," I replied. And I hope you do too, because I don't think she's going to give us any more in the way of an explanation.

"Anyway," she went on, "much more puzzling is your asking the Tin Woodman to advise you on the price of gold. Why ever did you do that?"

"He is very well qualified," I explained. "Can you imagine a better background for an adviser in precious and industrial metals than to be made of metal yourself? Moreover, he has a PhD from the Emerald University."

"Well, ye-es," said Dorothy thoughtfully. "The snag is that I know the Dean of that University and his examination standards are somewhat eccentric. Don't you think that anyone who takes investment advice from a character in a fairy story deserves what he gets?"

"Not at all," I replied. "I think that many investment newsletters are fairy stories. And Messrs Lion, Scarecrow and Woodman have beaten all other advisers on their stock portfolios over the last three years."

"Yes indeed, but that's because it is Lion who is their stock analyst, and he hasn't been able to summon up the courage to buy any shares yet. He has kept all their investments in cash on deposit. Why did Woodman suggest £320?"

"Apparently, some idiot has told him that the dollar has lost value by a factor of 16 since he first visited you in Kansas, so he multiplied $20 by 16."

"But a twenty-dollar double eagle contains less than an ounce of gold!"

"I thought so too, but Woodman asked Scarecrow to do the calculation, and I don't think Scarecrow is too good with decimals. Though he too now has a PhD from the Emerald University."

"Somehow, I'm not surprised," muttered Dorothy. "But why did you choose them? Did you consider the advice center in the House at Pooh Corner?"

"I thought about it of course," I replied, "but Frank Baum, the kindly old storyteller, who was the first to realize that fairy stories don't have to be Grimm, died more than 70 years ago. None of the stories he told about you all is in copyright any more."

"The film they made about us is still in copyright though."

"Is there a film too? I've never seen that. Is it ever shown on television?"

"Well, not as often as Citizen Kane," said Dorothy, "but I'm sure you could catch a showing if you tried hard. Anyhow, that's enough talking. I'm ignoring Toto."

So they skipped off together, leaving me sitting on the grass and thinking that Oz didn't die with Frank Baum, back in the era of gold-standard currencies and gold-standard fairy stories. Somewhere, behind every rainbow, a girl and her dog are forever playing. In a land where the grass is whatever color they want it to be.
===

Gandalf the White

(04/29/2003; 12:37:51 MDT - Msg ID: 102097)

Sir Lothar of the Hill People === <;-)

http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=1&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=38&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iILothar of the Hill People (04/29/03; 10:00:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 102094)
Reeling, slipping, falling, rising again...
===
Please recover your health soon, as you can see by the chart at the above LINK, today's NY market adventure was a almost a replay of yesterday's WILD ROLLER COASTER RIDE, but someone through a little OIL on the wave and MAY BE the CABAL is learning that gold WILL be set FREE !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(04/29/2003; 12:42:21 MDT - Msg ID: 102098)

oops

throw -- threw -- thrown
<;-(

Au-some

(04/29/2003; 13:01:21 MDT - Msg ID: 102099)

Redesigned $20 Bill to Be Shown in May

http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/politics/5743883.htmJEANNINE AVERSA
Associated Press

WASHINGTON -The $20 bill featuring Andrew Jackson's new look will be shown to the public for the first time in May, officials from the Bureau of Engraving and Printing said Tuesday.

The wrappers will be taken off the updated bill, which carries a redesigned image of the seventh president, on May 13. The original public unveiling - scheduled for late March - had been postponed because the country was on a brink of a war with Iraq at that time.

The $20 bill is getting a makeover to thwart high-tech counterfeiters.

The most noticeable change is that the bill has color, although officials would not provide details. Also, the images of Jackson and the White House will look different.

ME: What color?

slingshot

(04/29/2003; 13:28:58 MDT - Msg ID: 102100)

Paper Avalanche

New Colored MoneyLooks like they are going to roll it out in May.

The best made plans of mice and men sometimes go astray.

Ha Ha.
Slingshot----------------------;0)

J-Bullion

(04/29/2003; 13:45:17 MDT - Msg ID: 102101)

Rand threatens mining jobs

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=2648336

If the rand remains strong there will be a loss of mining jobs and therefore less gold produced from S.Africa. Then again, how can any currency depreciate against the U.S. dollar when we are running 1/2 trillion dollar budget deficits a year. S. Africa better hire Fed. Gov. Bernanske as a consultant on how to get their printing presses running overtime before it is too late.

Black Blade

(04/29/2003; 14:39:00 MDT - Msg ID: 102102)

Singing the paycheck blues

http://money.cnn.com/2003/04/28/commentary/column_hays/hays/index.htm
The personal income figures aren't so rosy once you consider inflation and taxes.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - As Lou Rawls sang so mellifluously years ago: "The eagle flies on Friday...Saturday I go out to play." It's a blues musing on a basic truth: what I make in my paycheck determines what I spend. That's why economists place so much importance on personal income -- it's the raw material for spending. In fact, it's one of the four horsemen of the business cycle along with employment, industrial production and business sales. As long as they are all growing we are in an economic expansion; if they start shrinking, that means recession lies ahead.

But economists don't stop there. They like to take out changes in prices to see how much of a change in total sales is due to things costing more and how much is due to people actually buying a bigger quantity. (If the cost of cars goes up 5 percent in a month, sales of cars would show a gain of 5 percent even though the same number of cars had been sold.) The government has a special inflation measure in this report called the personal consumption expenditure deflator (which also happens to be Fed chairman Greenspan's favored inflation measure). In addition, economists subtract out taxes from income. Again, that's because most of us spend what we see in our paycheck, and that's what is left over after the government takes out its many pieces. Now the numbers aren't quite so good. Adjusted for inflation and taxes, consumer spending rose just 0.1 percent in March and income was unchanged. Maybe it was also the weak labor market and people's low take-home pay that hurt consumer spending.

Black Blade: Don't ya just love how the government monkeys around with data? One could massage data to the point of making up any value and that's where the problem lies. When you look deep into the data and the flawed methodologies used it becomes quite apparent that the economy is in grave danger. You wouldn't know it if you were to rely solely on data released by government agencies � after all it's a political game. The whole idea is to fool as many people as possible. How do I know? I use statistical data quite often and I can manipulate data if I were determined to be dishonest. Now you don't think that the government would be "dishonest" do you? Hmmm�

BTW, the line of that old blues song is from an old Mexican-American saying: " El �guila vuela en Viernes" ("The eagle flies on Friday). That is to say I get my paycheck on Friday and it "flies" outta my hands.

Black Blade

(04/29/2003; 14:46:45 MDT - Msg ID: 102103)

Ericsson to Cut as Many as 13,000 More Jobs on Losses

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=arlbLtWQY0ow&refer=home
Snippit:

Stockholm, April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Ericsson AB, the world's biggest maker of wireless networks, will cut as many as 13,000 jobs, bringing the workforce back to 1968 levels, after an eighth quarterly loss. The stock had its biggest gain since October.

Black Blade: Ericsson does its part to build the growing global "Bone Pile".

Black Blade

(04/29/2003; 15:02:51 MDT - Msg ID: 102104)

Senate ready to aid financially stressed states

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2003-04-28-congress-taxes_x.htm
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) � Senate Republicans appear ready to include at least some aid to financially stressed states in tax legislation designed to jump-start the economy. A cash infusion to states will have to compete with the tax cuts the White House favors. But the idea, a centerpiece of Democratic tax proposals, has strong support among Senate Republicans. Adding state aid to the package could win crucial support from moderate Senate Democrats. State leaders lobbying Congress and the White House for some financial aid say that without it, any federal stimulus will be wiped out by tax increases, funding cuts and job cutbacks by state and local governments. The Senate's state aid will have to squeeze into a bill that's already feeling pressure. There are not enough votes in the Senate to pass more than $350 billion in tax cuts � less than half the amount Bush originally proposed.

Black Blade: What this plan entails is a transfer of wealth so to speak. In effect, taxpayers of fiscally responsible states will subsidize those who are fiscally irresponsible. Those state that squandered during the "times of plenty" and now find themselves short in these "times of famine" look to others to bail them out. It's the old "grasshopper and ant" story playing out once again.

Black Blade

(04/29/2003; 15:20:56 MDT - Msg ID: 102105)

The mythical second-half recovery

http://money.cnn.com/2003/04/28/technology/earnings/index.htm
Tech earnings growth will be explosive in the third and fourth quarter. Heard that one before?

Snippit:

First-quarter earnings for the 56 of the 80 S&P 500 technology companies that have already reported have increased 14 percent from a year ago, according to First Call. When all is said and done, analysts think growth will be about 16 percent -- crushing the forecast of 10 percent growth that analysts were predicting at the beginning of April. But ... At the beginning of the year, analysts were expecting earnings growth of, well, 16 percent. "We've seen expectations cut and cut and cut. When you lower the bar enough, eventually it becomes easy enough to hurdle over," said Barry Ritholtz, chief market strategist for Maxim Group.

These high hopes are based on the idea that the economy is going to get better (i.e., businesses will finally start spending again) and comparisons are easy (last year's numbers were so bad that big growth numbers are no problem to achieve). The market has bought into this argument. The S&P Tech index is up 6.3 percent since the beginning of the year, making it the second-best performing sector. (Consumer cyclicals are up 7 percent.) But is there any reason to think that these second-half estimates are reasonable, and that estimates won't come down substantially, just as they have for the past two years?

Black Blade: Earnings simply don't add up, unless you are counting the "pro forma" kind. Capex isn't materializing, consumer spending is slowing down, and unemployment is rising. So where this increase in earnings and "economic recovery" will come from no one really knows. It just sounds good though and that is the reasoning perhaps. Will this be a fourth year of declining stock markets? Who knows, anything is possible I guess. So far the fundamentals simply do not point to an "economic recovery" in the "second half", this year or next. Companies are said to be "beating the street" as estimates are higher than "expectations" Whooptidoo! Expectations have been lowered so low one only needs to have a discernable "pulse" to beat expectations. Wall Street is really pumping hard on this one.

Buena Fe

(04/29/2003; 15:28:45 MDT - Msg ID: 102106)

No kiss and make-up in Moscow

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2986863.stm.........Frantic

All this boils down to the rest of the world's relationship with the United States.

Mr Blair is growing ever more frantic in his insistence that there's a grave danger of a new cold war, an anti-American axis.

His view is the world should listen to the US on their serious strategic concerns, and they will listen back on things such as the environment and the Middle East.

President Putin's assessment was rather different.

Impractical

He agreed with Mr Blair that there should be a uni-polar world, but one decided by democratic agreement, not the wishes of one country that everyone else has to follow.

The trouble is Mr Blair thinks Russia and France are being quixotically impractical, opposing the will of the world's only hyper power.

Whereas they see his view as pragmatism gone mad, neither moral nor democratic.

The war in Iraq was a gulf war indeed, opening up a gulf in the western alliance, that's now as wide as ever.
_________________________________________________________
no surpries for this hall, the mainstream media is finally catching up, but they never really will, long live MK and many others who help facilitate freedom of thinking.
go gold

Buena Fe

(04/29/2003; 16:40:26 MDT - Msg ID: 102107)

drum roll

3 big stories are posted late at the BBC tonight,

-Blair-Putin tensions on sanctions
-No kiss and make-up in Moscow
-Blair and Putin fail to heal the rift

all describing in detail Putin's rebuff of Blair, the great rift is for REAL! the $index is on the edge of a technical cliff! does the drama of the situation get any more intense.

of course goliath was intimidating until ... suddenly he wasn't.

got gold

ps how can you tell that i'm impatient and a little bored with the whole thing? c'mon you politician, poop or get off the pot.

mikal

(04/29/2003; 17:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 102108)

@Buena Fe

Re: "The dollar is on the edge of a cliff" Don't worry, there are plenty more to replace the one's that step off the edge.
I don't mind that it seems to get a death wish sometimes. Any exaggerated call for it's demise is a mere venting of tension brought by he accumulated pressure of experiencing inflation, gold suppresion and other collateral damage of the bankster fiat "miracle".
But paper dollars would seem to be prime candidates for a collective world "pardon", given with the same generosity as a "Presidential Pardon". True, congress gets paid in dollars and we Americans pay taxes in dollars. But bankers get paid in dollars GLOBALLY as do many corporations and investment funds worldwide. So their interests must be accommodated, to prevent a sudden revolt or a freeze-up of payments. That is why, looking at the chart, dollar declines come in fits and starts, without attracting much attention from the media and public. Some notice, but no discussion commensurate with the relevance, origin or consequences for all.

Clink!

(04/29/2003; 18:29:10 MDT - Msg ID: 102109)

USD

Dropping again. Lowest at 97.66, which is perilously close to March lows. Now where was that cliff ......

Clink!

(04/29/2003; 18:31:11 MDT - Msg ID: 102110)

Which explains why gold

has gone up to $335. Now where was that dog ? Here, Spike !

slingshot

(04/29/2003; 18:37:33 MDT - Msg ID: 102111)

(No Subject)

Dollar has a bungee chord.
Slingshot----------------<>

21mabry

(04/29/2003; 19:11:24 MDT - Msg ID: 102112)

Von Mises

There are some excellent audio and video programs available to use on line at the Von Mises institute homepage.There all free of charge and come at economics from a free market austrian school slant.There worth the time check them out

steady

(04/29/2003; 19:46:34 MDT - Msg ID: 102113)

comex

comex= part time paper pushing gold slackers! hec_k even after how many months they still can not normalize there hours> did they think wed forget? i wont let us. when will comex hours be normalized again? hmm no wonder peole are losing confidence in the usa they cant keep there equity markets open regular hours.

Cavan Man

(04/29/2003; 20:06:34 MDT - Msg ID: 102114)

Fiscal Follies

Treasury Says U.S. Could Face Default

By JEANNINE AVERSA
The Associated Press
Tuesday, April 29, 2003; 7:17 PM

WASHINGTON - The Treasury Department says the United States could face the prospect of not being able to pay its bills in late May unless Congress raises the government's borrowing authority, now capped at $6.4 trillion.

Treasury's debt managers have taken a number of steps since February to prevent the government from defaulting on the national debt, but "on current projections, the extraordinary measures taken since Feb. 20, 2003, will only be adequate to meet the government's needs until the latter half of May," said a statement released Tuesday.

After that - absent a boost in the government's borrowing authority by Congress - Treasury would breach the current $6.4 trillion ceiling on the national debt.

"The Treasury will continue to work with Congress to ensure the government's ability to finance its operations," Treasury said.

Treasury has asked Congress to boost the government's borrowing authority, although it has not suggested a specific amount. A proposal is pending on Capitol Hill that would raise the debt ceiling to $7.38 trillion.

Last year, Congress boosted the old debt limit by $450 billion, from $5.95 trillion to the current $6.4 trillion.

At that time Treasury warned that Congress would need to again increase the government's borrowing authority.

Boosting the debt limit is more a matter of politics than economics.

Economists doubt Congress will refuse to raise the limit. A federal default is considered unimaginable because it would rattle bond markets, force interest rates higher, weaken the world economy and deliver a political blow to President Bush.

Democrats point to the government's need to borrow more to ridicule President Bush's tax cuts, his handling of the economy and ballooning federal government budget deficits, which are expected to hit records this year and next.

Republicans blame the lingering effects of the 2001 recession and the costs of fighting terrorism for the need to extend the debt limit.

By Memorial Day, Republicans hope to have pushed through Congress a tax-cut bill with a price tag of between $350 billion and $550 billion through 2013.

If Congress must approve a debt-limit extension during the same period of time, it could play into Democrats' political argument that the new tax cut will only make the government's red ink worse.

The government had to borrow a record $111 billion in the January-March quarter to cover the shortfall between expenses and tax revenue. It expects to borrow another $79 billion in the current quarter.

steady

(04/29/2003; 20:14:29 MDT - Msg ID: 102115)

perceptions.

rebuilding trust. speaking of places we know of knowledge. is trust that easily given and taken away?

silvercollector

(04/29/2003; 20:34:05 MDT - Msg ID: 102116)

Cavan Man

Glad you caught Roach's latest.

I really trying to catch what's about to happen here, something afoot, something LARGE. Can't you just smell it!

All the talk about 'deval's' and what not, the +5.0% deficit number that many talk of. 'Unsustainable', a now infamous word that has been tossed around for quite a few years.

When?

Here's a little snip from G-E, a post from 22:05:

"Meanwhile, investors should note the recent pattern whereby the dollar weakens on days when US stocks are strong."

When a currency is faltering shouldn't stocks rise, given that it takes more currency to buy the same shares? Isn't this to be expected when a currency is failing? If this is true (correct) then isn't it wise to have some (perhaps alot) of cash in equities?

"....but the ultimate albeit painful solution must surely be a global currency realignment led by Asia."

If Asia is to lead wouldn't the 'greenback' be considered a safe haven (at least for a while)? If correct will the dollar rise, that is to say the last to crack?

Getting back to Roach who anticipates a serious round of global deflation. What exactly does he mean by that? Currency deflation or asset deflation? Aren't the two exact opposites?

He concludes his essay with the warning of the 'monumental' bet that the US has now played, does he expect the dollar to crash? How? Massive repatriation, 'big float comes home'?

TIA

silvercollector

(04/29/2003; 20:43:09 MDT - Msg ID: 102117)

Clink!

Here's the 'dope' question of the day.

Why is gold not tracking the dollar index properly anymore? Gold at 335 while the dollar falls precariously to 97.66 and a new low. Gold has been alot higher with the dollar index alot higher.

Why?

silvercollector

(04/29/2003; 21:09:52 MDT - Msg ID: 102118)

Here's a quickie

Date.....Dollar Index.......Gold

May (2002)...114............310
June.........111............320
July.........108............315
Aug..........108............315
Sept.........107............320
Oct..........108............320
Nov..........106............320
Dec..........105............325
Jan..........102............350
Feb...........99............380
Mar...........98............360
Now...........97............335??

Things looked linear up to and including Jan. (and then the war thingy) but come on, a new low and 335. This is getting comical.

silvercollector

(04/29/2003; 21:12:53 MDT - Msg ID: 102119)

Now index at 97.55 and spot at 335.30

..we'll break 97 and not 340 at this rate.

Ouch!! Something not adding up.

Black Blade

(04/29/2003; 21:50:17 MDT - Msg ID: 102120)

POG and USD

The POG probably would be a bit more active tonight but remember, this is "Golden Week" and the Tocom is closed. The Hong Kong market has been a bit slow in recent days due to the Sars outbreak and the mainland Chinese market was ordered closed on Monday by Chinese authorities (again due to Sars). Australia doesn't even have a market unless you call Sydney a market. It certainly isn't on par with major world markets and certainly not big enough to have much impact without late NY access players (no slight is meant here but let's face it, it is a small market).

We just may have to see how the USD plays in Euroland as the Japanese don't appear to be out and about buying dollars and selling Yen as the often do when the dollar weakens. With the current account deficit running at 5.2% of GDP, the budget deficit well over the "ceiling" already, and Wall Street touting phoney earnings (the "pro forma" kind), the dollar has to weaken if there is no massive intervention. Remember that the US Treasury and Fed have all but abandoned the concept of "strong dollar". They can't actually come out and say it of course but everyone knows that it's not in the best interest of the US to keep to a "strong dollar policy" given the faltering economy, increase in money supply, growing trade deficits, falling manufacturing, etc. Oh yeah � the debt ceiling has already been breached but it is now a matter of juggling the books such as using Federal Pension funds, shifting accounts to "off the books" accounts, etc. until Congress approves a new ceiling.

The POG paper market has not been all that important to investors lately either. It has been a strong physical gold market lately with exceptionally strong buying in central Asia with "wedding season" well underway. In fact it is said that it is a "bumper year" for marriages. I wouldn't know myself. It also appears that Indian crops will be in for a good year as opposed to last year's drought. Of course rural Indians save in hard assets rather than banks. Hard assets are also preferred over shaky investments like stocks and bonds with fears that Sars may cross the border. The same is true of SE Asian and Asia with physical buying on Sars fears. Already the Sars epidemic has hurt the local equities and bond markets due to projections of slower growth. People would rather have tangibles in this environment, especially in mainland China as the stock exchanges are closed. Then there are the persistent rumors of Asian central bank buying (exchanging excess US dollars for gold maybe and drawing cash out of US assets and bringing home the bacon?). Hmmm...

- Black Blade

Aristotle

(04/29/2003; 22:11:13 MDT - Msg ID: 102121)

silvercollector -- "Why is gold not tracking the dollar index properly anymore?"

Anymore??? Howdy! I wouldn't be bold enough to hang my hat on any regimental meaning of *properly tracking* when it comes to Gold and dollars.

The short of it comes down to this: Can you convince yourself how Gold is arbitraged in and among the network of swirling currencies? If you ponder it, I do believe you'll come to see how Gold can *and indeed must* ultimately stand aloof from the physics of the forex actions and reactions among the paper bumper boats which all sink, more-or-less together, on the normal tide of monetary depreciation.

It's simply not reasonable to expect a mathematically calculable correlation between these two distinctly different fellows. Gold is property; not some kinda quantum "anti-dollar."

Topaz, you had a great series of successive posts one morning a couple days ago. Nice. Thanks.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Black Blade

(04/29/2003; 22:12:09 MDT - Msg ID: 102122)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

The U.S. may have the strongest military in the world, but our Achilles heel is our economy and financial system. The U.S. economy runs on credit. It must be constantly fed with ever-increasing amounts of debt or the economy shuts down. Right now, it is government deficit spending, housing and mortgage financing keeping the economy afloat. The Fed is buying government debt and running the printing presses at full throttle. The only problem is foreign investors are beginning to get nervous. As the graph of the dollar below shows, the dollar is in danger of breaking down. In fact it has received very little benefit from the stock market's rally. Normally when U.S. financial markets appreciate the U.S. dollar benefits. The fact that it hasn't tells me the dollar could be headed for trouble.

The fall in the dollar means foreigners are losing money on their U.S. investments. In addition to a falling dollar, America's burgeoning trade deficit is putting more dollars and U.S. debt in foreign hands. What foreigners think and do will become more important to what happens to our economy and financial markets since they own a major portion of our bonds, government and corporate, stocks, and real estate.

With foreigners now accumulating more and more dollars as a result of our trade deficits it can't be assumed that they will always hold on to and invest those dollars. There are now plenty of alternatives to the dollar. There are plenty of alternative paper currencies for them to invest their trade surplus. There is also gold and silver. Asian investors and central banks, Middle Eastern investors and governments are now accumulating gold and silver. A process of diversification out of the dollar has begun which explains much of the weakness in the dollar chart above.

Black Blade: As we are discussing the US dollar and precious metals tonight � Puplava's market wrap up has a nice section on what gives with the dollar. The dollar is weakening and as foreigners are bailing it is now up to who to buy US debt? The Fed of course will pick up the slack. This next round of debt offerings will surpass all previous records $67 billion this time around I believe. Worse yet, it isn't the foreign investors who are coming in anymore (well, not like they used to). As they bail out of the dollar for alternative investments with better yields and more solid assets for insurance (gee I wonder what that could be?), it is up to the Fed and anyone they can suck in to keep the game afoot. And yes, even worse yet � the amount of "debt" bond offerings are expected to rise again. Yikes! No wonder the dollar is weakening.

Waverider

(04/29/2003; 22:20:15 MDT - Msg ID: 102123)

France, Germany deepen UK rift

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/eu/story/0,9061,946386,00.htmlSnip
"Europe's anti-war camp risked new tensions with Britain and the US yesterday by establishing a joint military headquarters that could operate separately from Nato."

Waverider: More on the European front. Sir Belgian - thank you for your thoughts - as always your perspective is appreciated. As for female intuition...my intuition tells me that I find no holes in your logic and I'm best to learn from the world-class professors of international economics and geopolitics such as yourself and Sir MK, among many others here! To respond in kind would require many hours of research on my behalf and forgive me Sir - not tonight - I have just submitted my PhD thesis proposal this afternoon! :)

Congratulations to all the winners of the essay contest - to Sirs Goldendome, Cockerell and John the Jute - well done!

Cheers,
Waverider

The CoinGuy

(04/30/2003; 00:25:39 MDT - Msg ID: 102124)

MK is FOA...Sounds About Right....

Well, we haven't been treated to FOA in quite some time, I won't doubt the degree as to which I believe this person to be correct, but I will say...that I believe with MK's writing skills, he is FOA.

Anyone disagree?

TCG

Usul

(04/30/2003; 01:15:35 MDT - Msg ID: 102125)

Debt Ceiling

The raising of the debt ceiling will be approved at the eleventh hour, when the required bargains have been struck.

Mr Gresham

(04/30/2003; 01:43:35 MDT - Msg ID: 102126)

Back again

I was away, without my posting code, but I could read and mostly keep up. We're treading water after the last POG slap-down, but doing it well. I'll second Ari, that Topaz has been chalking up some good ones lately.

I'm sad that Sector has felt like departing. I think we all need to just ignore discussions that we don't want to be part of, and recognize that many appreciate the original work that people like Sector do. I'm not sure I need to even probe the factuality of their presentations, because there are many filters intervening between our forum and "The Answers". (And nothing certain enough to fight about.) I appreciate when anyone just gets us thinking, with their own clear thoughts and writing. Thank you, Sector, and other "favs" who do likewise.

So, either we're wrong about gold replacing fiat in people's money-trustworthiness-hierarchy, or, the fiat franchise has thrown more of its gold reserves on the fire, to keep the game going.

We might not be that much higher in dollar price lately, but we're closer in time to finding out who's right. I know I'm too much of an economic "fundamentalist" to recognize the timing behind people's enduring delusions. (And deceptions, self- and other.) But that IS a factor in timing -- as Keynes said, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." (Or, put differently, he might have said, "Stay away from margin, when you're wrasslin' with the big boyz!")

So I guess it just waits upon physical doors closing, i.e., the fools run out of money to perpetuate their delusions with. All the money shakes down, into the pockets of those scammers who ran a good game, and us "fundi"s who kept our few coins out of it. Strange new world to follow.

It will be a sad day, if and when we are proven "right". But we didn't make this game, we're just the little boy pointing out the Emp's invisible new robes, and wondering at the persistence of mass hypnosis. Works great, until it doesn't...

The CoinGuy

(04/30/2003; 01:48:10 MDT - Msg ID: 102127)

'Old Europe' presses ahead with plans for an EU army

"Old Europe" threw down the gauntlet at the feet of Britain, the United States and the Atlantic Alliance at a mini-summit yesterday, unveiling plans for a new Euro-army with its own military headquarters.

Right on Schedule,

The CoinGuy

Belgian

(04/30/2003; 05:23:29 MDT - Msg ID: 102128)

What is happening....?

The dollar-index lost already 20% (122 > 98) and the euro gained 11% against the dollar ! Gold (POG) remains freezed !
A possible interpretation...:

The globe is shifting out of the "Dollar Reserve" as a prelude to the coming running out of the "dollar".

There is a not so subtle but rather Big difference between a dollar and a dollar-reserve ! Dollars are daily used for settlement of any transaction. Dollar-reserve is a standard and the fundamental of a *system*. The daily price (dollar exchange rate) of your house might fluctuate for many different reasons, but the intrinsic quasi permanent "value" of your house (property-reserve) is supposed to last within a house-reserve system.

The euro *IS* in the process of challenging the dollar-reserve system, evidenced by the dollar-price (exchange rate) behavior.

More and more dollar-reserve holders and coerced participants on the dollar-system are increasingly taking part into this transition from dollar-system to euro-system.
What we are seeing today, is imvho, NOT an *ordinarry* dollar-exchange rate fluctuation. Euroland, China, Russia and the ME are leaving the dollar-system, gradually.

In a much later phase, the masses will leave the dollar (currency) in a massive flight that will result into the long predicted hyper-inflation or better, massive dollar-devaluation.

To run away from the dollar, dollar-reserve, dollar-system 4 global alternatives are available : euro, euro-reserve, euro system AND Gold.
1/ Switch to euro-fiat (currency) as to profit from a rising exchange rate against your dollar-fiat (currency).
2/ Exchange dollar-reserves for euro-reserves to hasten the transition from holding dollar-reserves into the holding of euro-reserves.
3/ Position one's currency as to anticipate/participate in the coming euro-concept/euro-system.
4/ Accumulate Physical Gold in Possession !

Point 4, Gold accumulation, comes last. Because the above chronology must be respected to make the whole transition happen. Starting with an enormous POG-explosion would put things upside down. Think about this one and please comment on it.

The evolving �/$ exch. rate is the outside indicator for how far we stand with the above 1-2-3-4 steps.
The �/$ exch. rate has a lot of implications on the whole globe's dollar-system. Economically, financially, politically. All the participants of the dollar-system face tuff decisions and must act in a kind of lockstep-ritme to realise the transition without fatal accidents. Think about all the CBs and their dollar-reserves and all exporters to the dollar-zone. Euroland is here in pole position thanks to its Goldreserves and the management of these reserves and its minor exposure to export to doller-zone (growth within the expanding Euroland-euro zone). Therefore Euroland must patiently wait for its euro-sympathizers to catch up on the right conditions/environment, to add to the critical euro-mass.

Once all euro-system supporters have evolved into the same lockstep...GOLD is ready to explode and finalise/concretize the transition from dollar-system to euro-system !

IMVHO it is happening NOW ! How else can one explain that the dollar weakens without being allowed to be compensated by Gold (POG) !!!!???? As if the dollar-system must, first, strengthen the euro before letting the dollar-holders flight into Gold ?

Any central banker here around to confirm this or trash it ?

The euro (euro-concept) is Gold's lever !

Cavan Man

(04/30/2003; 05:39:25 MDT - Msg ID: 102129)

Peacekeepers, Nation builders, "Rocks and Shoes"

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- For the second time this week, U.S. soldiers fired on anti-American protesters Wednesday in the city of Fallujah; the mayor said two people were killed and 14 wounded. Meanwhile, Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld became the first top Bush administration official to visit Iraq since Saddam Hussein's ouster.

The shooting in Fallujah, 30 miles west of Baghdad, occurred less than 48 hours after gunfire during a demonstration Monday night that hospital officials said killed 13 Iraqis.

About 1,000 people marched down the city's main street Wednesday to protest the earlier incident. The crowd stopped in front of a battalion headquarters of the U.S. Army's 82nd Airborne Division - a former office of Hussein's Baath Party - and soldiers opened fire after some protesters started throwing rocks and shoes.

LeSin

(04/30/2003; 06:06:46 MDT - Msg ID: 102130)

Humble Rocks & Flying Sand-Shoes Against the World's Strongest Army

C/Man - Thank you for the level-heads-up from time to time.

Might & Power are bred & nurtured by false-pride, greed and arrogance. Its' result is a monstrous tyrannical bully and a consuming beast that demands its' own way and imposes its' will on the down-trodden of the third world, even in the name of peace and liberty, it lies of its' motives, still.

Ah but wait, still a bit longer and we witness that pride and arrogance precedes the fall from on high. Interesting is it not that on does not fall from a low place.

Gold in humble hands will raise one to new heights of real wealth, if you can but see tomorrow.

Cheers - "S"

silvercollector

(04/30/2003; 06:20:43 MDT - Msg ID: 102131)

Ari

With further analysis I am going to retract my statement that "gold is not tracking the dollar index properly anymore."

The war thingy threw off thr last few months or near perfect correlation.

As you might say, let's review shall we!

Going back to the 2 tops of 120 in July 01 and Feb 02 we see gold meandering in that 270/280 range. Not much going on. The first dollar slide from 120 to 108 in the summer of '02 saw our friend gold break 300 and nudge the infamous 325/330. The dollar bouncing at the 108 mark coincided with the 325 bouncing, suddenly the dollar broke down again in Dec. 02. Gold responded by breaking the 325 mark and quickly marched to 340 before going into 'war premium' mode. As we speak the dollar appears to be shaky at the 98/99 mark while gets ready for another ascent.

So to sum up my friend, gold has found corresponding levels to the dollar index and they are:

Index......Gold

120.......270-290
108.......315-325
99........330-335

Now that we proved that without any shadow of a doubt let's move on to your most interesting statement, yes?

"It's simply not reasonable to expect a mathematically calculable correlation between these two distinctly different fellows...."

Why?

It is obvious that the linear relationship that we have witnessed for a couple years cannot hold forever, imagine a dollar index reading of 1! The index must sooner or later break out of a tangent and into a parabola.

When?

Thanks amigo.

Topaz

(04/30/2003; 06:56:51 MDT - Msg ID: 102132)

Ari, Mr G.

Thanks for the kind words Gents...I was contemplating changing the "handle" to Cassandra .
If the Gold "market" as is, fails to reveal Systemic shortcomings, then Bonds will imo.

Dollar Bill

(04/30/2003; 07:21:07 MDT - Msg ID: 102133)

(No Subject)

International Perspective, by Marshall Auerback
Would it make sense for US policy makers to first check and insure that that asian nations are solidly on board the present dollar system, then, make a fast change in the euro/dollar prices. Who that holds dollar assets is going to sell dollars at this low price and buy euros at this high price? Who is going to bet that the dollar is out of the game and only tanking from here on out?
Saudi and iraq and kuwait and quatar and even still iran exchange thier oil for dollars. No change coming anytime soon amongst them. With the dollar low and the euro high, wouldnt this also be a disincentive for them to move to euros now?
I read that 25 to 26 percent of all dollars internationally
are counterfiet. I wonder if that is true.

America's Policy Cul-De-Sac
April 29, 2003
Like any Texan worth his salt, President Bush realises that recent presentation to the National Association of Business Economists by Vincent Reinhart, a director of the Division of Monetary Affairs on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, who (as the title of the speech implies) was given the specific task of discussing the policy tools appropriate to combat deflation ("Tools for Combating Deflation", March 25, 2003). .

But despite the bravado expressed by Governor Bernanke at that time, thus far there is neither a consensus on how to deal with the incipient deflationary pressures implied by a zero per cent interest rate, nor agreement on the extent to which a central bank ought to be constrained by prevailing economic orthodoxy. Federal Reserve officials are beginning to come to grips with the severe negativity of a drift into deflation, yet for all of the previous trial balloons floating resorts to unconventional measures, the Reinhart speech demonstrates a renewed hesitancy to break out of the conventional menu of policy options available to central bankers when dealing with this unique threat.

In an article in Britain's Financial Times last week, Goldman Sachs's Bill Dudley and PIMCO's Paul McCulley suggested that the American economy "needs a buffer of inflation above price stability to ensure that monetary policy has room to work effectively in the event of shocks to aggregate demand" ("Greenspan must go for higher inflation" � Financial Times, April 24, 2003). By contrast, reading Mr Reinhart's speech, one is struck by a renewed hesitancy on the part of the Fed, and distinct lack of urgency to embrace fully the policy recommendations of Dudley and McCulley.

We guess that the Fed has been somewhat spooked by the market's reaction to Bernanke's now notorious speech and his extolment of the "electronic printing press". After all, as Dudley and McCulley suggest in the FT article, expectations ultimately drive markets, and here the Fed is in a sense a prisoner of its own failed expectations management game. Having dismissed the possibility of a serious deflationary threat, a sudden attack on a supposedly non-existent problem would implicitly call attention to previous policy failures, thereby undermining market confidence and detracting from the aim of promoting a greater appetite for risk amongst investors in post-bubble corporate America. This is precisely the opposite outcome that Dudley and McCulley wish to achieve through their recommendation that Greenspan go for higher inflation.

Reinhart speaks of the "considerable uncertainty [that] attends both the outlook and potential remedies" in a deflationary environment, even while acknowledging the risks of policy procrastination, as evidenced by the Japanese experience:

"The major misjudgment the Bank of Japan may have made was in the early 1990s, when policymakers showed a reluctance to respond to emerging signs of economic weakness for fear of re-inflating asset prices. However much you find the prevailing metaphor to be appropriate that rapidly rising asset prices divorced from fundamentals are a bubble, you have to admit that the comparison is apt for the aftermath: It is as difficult to blow up a balloon that has burst as to reinflate an asset price bubble once investors� optimism is gone."

But recognition of the risks of delay inspires nothing stronger than a Hamlet-like display of indecisiveness on the part of Reinhart: "And it is even more problematic to gauge the range of potential outcomes on the world stage, their relative probabilities, and their consequences for the economic behavior of households and firms..." (our emphasis).

In the lexicon of economics, Mr Reinhart is telling us that the Federal Reserve has no idea what happens to the money demand curve when they start promoting an explicit inflationary policy. The Fed may well hope the flow demand for dollars increases through "a quantity channel [which] may well spur spending through increases in the size of banks' balance sheets or their willingness to lend." Alternatively, "asset prices...adjust sufficiently [to Fed liquidity creation] to stimulate spending�No doubt all of these policy mechanisms are uncertain" (our emphasis).

On the other hand, Reinhart does not explicitly disavow Bernanke in this speech. He notes that "Chairman Greenspan and Governor Bernanke have recently outlined the litany of policy responses", and specifically cites the period preceding the Federal Reserve-Treasury Accord of 1951 in which the Fed explicitly supported 25-year bonds by fixing the price at 2.5%. Noting that the central bank can attack the term structure of interest rates directly, however, Reinhart goes out of his way to suggest that such measures are not "unusual", "unorthodox", or "unconventional":

"The Federal Reserve put a ceiling on the Treasury yield curve for more than half a decade in the 1940's, used the quantity of reserves to calibrate its policy from 1979 through much of 1982, and wrote options on the federal funds rate around the century date change. What is usual, orthodox, and conventional is the Fed's willingness to adapt its policies to the circumstances."

This speech, therefore, reflects an attempt to reconcile the differing treatments required for the equity and bond markets. Whilst painting the "unorthodox" as orthodox and conventional, the Fed has given up some of the positive surprise effect that they may have wanted to create for the equity market. On the other hand, the Fed may believe that the credit markets (and all of attendant implications that a buoyant credit market has for the crucial housing market) are a much more important determinant of keeping the great consumption boom alive and does not want that same surprise effect to impact adversely on long term interest rates.
Reinhart does try to strike a balance in his presentation, even while expressing the prevailing Fed belief that now that the depressant of geopolitical uncertainty out of the way, the US economy will do just fine: "No doubt, there are ongoing impediments to satisfactory growth in the United States, but policymakers have reason to believe that the current stretch of sub par growth will be modest both in terms of magnitude and duration."
In fact, Reinhart implicitly recognises the implications of being too conventional, acknowledging that "some shocks may be too large and too persistent for monetary policy to offset completely." Is the US economy in this position today?
"[I]t is possible that the requisite real interest rate required to pull up aggregate demand to potential output may be too deeply negative to achieve immediately, as it may be difficult to engender sufficient inflation expectations."
There would appear to be only one other antidote to this predicament � namely, that net export demand provides the motor for sustained growth in the future. U.S exports must rise faster than imports by very large amounts and for a long period of time, which implies a weaker dollar.
It is also becoming increasingly apparent that surplus countries (e.g. Japan, emerging Asia and China) are accumulating mountainous reserves which they have been using to prevent any natural rebalancing process from taking place. How can this be? For one thing, most of these countries, notably China, still manage their currencies closely against the greenback. That means that mounting pressures toward further dollar weakness have simply had the effect of driving the Yuan lower as well, and since China is the marginal price setter in so many areas (and these are increasing in number constantly), this tends to exacerbate global deflation, keeping US equities under downward pressure because (a) US corporate earnings and employment get worse, and (b) lower ex ante stock prices are needed to lure the volume of external investment required to prop the dollar. It also means very little improvement in the external account for the US. Under such circumstances, it is possible to imagine circumstances under which recourse to protective tariffs might be the only way in which America's strategic problem can be solved. Needless to say, this is hardly a benign environment for global equity markets and serves to reinforce the limited conventional options available to the Fed going forward.

Consequently, it is inevitable that the Fed will at some stage head down the end route of unorthodox monetary policy if there is no clear pickup in the investment-spending cycle or consumption soon. A "controlled" dollar devaluation is no longer something that can be unilaterally determined by US monetary and financial officials alone; the Chinese now have a profound say in this matter.

Dollar Bill

(04/30/2003; 07:22:48 MDT - Msg ID: 102134)

(No Subject)

ugh, the first paragraph in the post below is mine.
I dont want to give Marshall a bad name ! His comments start
in the second paragraph.

Eleanor of Aquitaine

(04/30/2003; 07:49:07 MDT - Msg ID: 102135)

what's down with the dollar??

Hey all, The dollar is presently under .98.....what's the deal? Any insightful analysis?

Clink!

(04/30/2003; 08:52:55 MDT - Msg ID: 102136)

USD

Not just low, but lower. Now at 97.35, which is 0.2 below the March lows. Breakout to the downside ?

C!

admin

(04/30/2003; 09:17:05 MDT - Msg ID: 102137)

MKs Gold Commentary & Review

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated:

New Short & Sweet

"Gold Demand Hits 35-Year High" Highest gold demand since 1967!!

New Stein

cockerel1

(04/30/2003; 09:41:34 MDT - Msg ID: 102138)

Gold Competition

Gandalf the White et al.

Please Sir, let me say how humbled and honored I am to receive your "honorable mention".

I come here every day to be educated in the finer points of finance. I have always believed that Gold be the only true mark of value, but the finer points and political manoeverings are intriguing to say the least, and to the wise "sages" that contribute to my learning I say "Thank you".

If I can offer any enlightenment myself, I will do so, but I will continue to follow the valuable commentaries each and every day.

By the way, as a Canadian, the silver Maple leaf is especially welcomed. It is destined to become a valued treasure for my grandson.

Thank you once again.

cockerel1

Eleanor of Aquitaine

(04/30/2003; 09:43:20 MDT - Msg ID: 102139)

(No Subject)

If gold demand is so high, then why isn't the sale price higher?

Zhisheng

(04/30/2003; 10:23:15 MDT - Msg ID: 102140)

Dollar down and gold up.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1The sun (and reality) are peeking from behind the clouds!

Eleanor of Aquitaine: IMHO
The dollar is headed down because of the fundamentals (inflation of its supply) and the breaking of a technical support level several days ago.

The price of gold has not been higher because central banks are selling and lending to support an orderly retreat.

Why today? If I knew, I'd be quite wealthy.

By the way, Eugene Manlove Rhodes once wrote a wonderful novel about another Eleanor: "Bransford of Rainbow Range," first published back in 1913.

miner49er

(04/30/2003; 10:36:47 MDT - Msg ID: 102141)

silvercollector @ back of the napkin POG / $ analysis...

Greetings, silvercollector...

fwiw... just a cursory (and very rough) look at a few periods during the last year reveals the following:

1) The dollar went from 115 to 104 from May 02 to mid Jul (nearly non-stop down), just at 8%. Gold on the other hand, zig-zagged from 310 to at 327 (May-begin Jun), then went back to the 310 area (start Jul), back up to mid 320s (mid Jul), and finally hit its nadir for the move at 303 or so, just as the dollar was coming off its lows at 104.

--- So, in this 2 1/2 mos period, the dollar dropped 8% like a stone, and gold moved in a band of +5%/-2%, ending on the -2% side.

2) From mid Jul into Nov, the USD went from 104 to zig-zag around 107, and finally dropped back to just over 104. Gold climbed from 303 into the high 320s, back down to the low 3-teens, and ended in early Nov around 325.

--- So, in this 4 month period, the dollar basically fluctuated in a 3+% band, and gold rose 7%.

3) From the beginning of the move attributed to anticipation of the war, the dollar steadily dropped from Dec to Feb, from nearly 107 to 99. Gold rose from 320 to 380+.

--- So during this war anticipation discounting, the dollar and gold experienced their most distinct inverse correlation, the dollar going non-stop south for 7.5%, gold non-stop north for 19%.

4) The two month period Feb/Mar saw the dollar start at 99, straight line all Feb around 100, dip to 98, jump to 102, and end the month sinking to 99.

Gold during the same period went from 380+ to the low 320s, giving back all of its Dec -> Feb move.

--- So, for this 2 month period, the dollar stayed even, and gold lost 15%.

Overall, for the eleven months just looked at, the dollar lost 14%, and gold gained 6%. Inversely correlated, as expected, end to end, but no discernible correlation between the two during the several sub-periods analyzed.

---------------------
What is interesting to note, is that the EURUSD exchange rate, which has mirrored the dollar index decline almost perfectly in its ascent, has created some interesting gold price markings in euros.

Gold has actually gotten cheaper in euros in this same 11 month period by over 10%, going from just over 340 to the low 300s. During that time the euro appreciated just over 20% from .90 to 1.095 or so.

The Gulf war premium was half the USD price premium at just over 9%.

Gold/EUR/USD seemed to experience their only highly correlated period from Jul to Dec. EPOG straightlined, fluctuating tightly around 320 with only a +5/-5 euro deviation. $POG saw a 3% appreciation overall (310-320), and this corresponds with about a 2% appreciation of the euro v. dollar during that period.

I know this is not very scientific, and is very off-the-cuff, but it does seem to point out some interesting movements, and seems to indicate to me that there is no mathematically calculable correlation between the dollar and POG (or any currency and POG).

---------------------
sc, you ask, "Why?" I have to answer, why should there be? There cannot be a mathematically calculable correlation between two items that do not have either an enforced ratio, or some inherent commonality. If gold is moving freely, then market forces will prevent any mathematically predictable correlation. If gold is managed, then the correlation is artificial, and subject to the changes in politics, and forced changes by periodic incursions from pent up market power. In general, it is safe to say that if the currency paradigm insists on demonstrating the currency is as "good as gold," then politics will unequivocally force the management of the gold price. This is the de facto flexible gold standard we have lived with since the formal break in 1971. It is also safe to say that the deceitfulness that politics always brings to any arena will mean that the gold price is ultimately false. It is also safe to say that market wisdom will eventually recognize this and apply contrary pressure.

Now, if this were the previous American century, then market pressure would simply be lopped off at the knees (gold confiscation, and prohibition of gold ownership, slamming shut of the gold window). With no alternatives, there was no real competition to a currency paradigm that insisted on making itself out to be good as gold. Even once we pee-ons were once again permitted by our masters to pick up the crumbs that fell off their plates, it was discovered that good use of paper gold was very effective in promoting the "GAG" illusion.

But, this is a new century. What does it bring? Will we see a new currency paradigm take hold that will not only give vent to the pent up pressures built into gold for such a very long time, but is actually designed to benefit from riding the tsunami of this force? Or will we see another protracted period of GAG? Will that market wisdom, which I just said was safe to assume, be permitted to satisfy itself with both free purchases of gold, and an unleashed gold price?

If so, then I would venture that even were there formerly a linear relationship between the USD and gold, it would have to break down. As Ari points out, what if the dollar index goes to one? If there were linearity, you would have just been able to mathematically calculate the absolute top to the gold price. At some point between 1 and n, any GAG relationship will break down, and the consequent untetheredness of the dollar would make it irrelevant in any further gold evaluation. It might be interesting to note that such a terminus would also mark the end to the dollar contract markets, too (if they weren't already in dissolution). Let this be a consideration for those who are hedging a strong dollar devaluation with gold futures and options.

In any event, I fail to see why there must be some mathematically calculable precision between what is on the one hand, an entirely managed and artificial creation of the state -- the medium of fiat currency, and what is a universally recognized, as old as the Earth, unencumbered piece of one's property -- your gold.

Anyway, always enjoy hearing what you have to say sc...

cheers,
miner

Eleanor of Aquitaine

(04/30/2003; 10:44:08 MDT - Msg ID: 102142)

Miner

Thanks for the insight. It's most interesting....

silvercollector

(04/30/2003; 11:16:24 MDT - Msg ID: 102143)

miner49er

Nice to hear from you! No 'When' reply ;)

I don't know about the mathematical correlation, looks to me like there's a pattern, perhaps not linear. Undeniable they are inverse and when the dollar begins a long turn, gold turns in the opposite direction.

I thought it was sector (perhaps someone else) that was quoting a figure, some rather straight-forward ratio that he used to monitor the dollar index/POG relationship.

Thanks for your POV (point of view), hope gold begins the y=x3 (cubed) formation soon!!

sc

Pippin

(04/30/2003; 11:18:32 MDT - Msg ID: 102144)

Treasury Says U.S. Could Face Default (Wash. Post)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A56227-2003Apr29.htmlSnip :
<
Treasury's debt managers have taken a number of steps since February to prevent the government from defaulting on the national debt, but "on current projections, the extraordinary measures taken since Feb. 20, 2003, will only be adequate to meet the government's needs until the latter half of May," said a statement released Tuesday>>

My question is : is there an amount after which it will *not* be possible to push the debt higher anymore - as this will be the case now again, I guess ?
Is there any objective criteria, a mechanism which will say : "after this - no more" ? Or will this scenario continue till the next Flood, as we say in French ?

JemeJordan

(04/30/2003; 11:25:49 MDT - Msg ID: 102145)

US Debt ceiling limit

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/Same thing all over again, remember the Clinton era, the donkeys and Elephants couldn't agree on the issue of extending the debt ceiling, He almost had to shut down the Fed Government!

Awe this is getting good!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/30/2003; 11:49:37 MDT - Msg ID: 102146)

Govt economic stimulus, low interest rates... obscure the "strong dollar policy"

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Today!

Because the phrase "strong dollar policy" is sounding anemic.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.
How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
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USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(04/30/2003; 11:51:03 MDT - Msg ID: 102147)

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

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receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.

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Belgian

(04/30/2003; 12:09:32 MDT - Msg ID: 102148)

@ miner49er / @ Peppin

Indeed miner, there is NO *** linear *** relationship between US$ and Gold ! One example out of the 30 years dollar-index/POG chart : 1985 UDX stood at an ATH of 165 and POG was 300$/Oz. Today UDX=97 and POG=335$ !

This simply illustrates what they have done to Gold AND the dollar. Dollar's indebtness grew relentlessly and Gold needed to be contained ever more.

The above is than an (the) answer to copain Peppin's question on the limits of dollar-Debt-Growth ! In theory, Debt Growth is infinite for as long as debt can be pushed forward, rolled over and remains accepted within an global economy that pretends to grow/expand.

For as long as a majority can be coerced to "USE" that dollar-debt ! That's what "dollarization" is all about.

Thanks miner49er !

TownCrier

(04/30/2003; 12:35:10 MDT - Msg ID: 102149)

Federal Reserve adds $12.75 billion past two days

The Fed entered the open market yesterday with $7.25 billion in 2-day repurchase agreements and again today with $5.5 billion in overnight repos, effectively giving the national banking system "high power dollars" with which the banking network may further expand the monetary system through normal banking and lending practices.

There is no "meaningful limit" to this process. However, that is not to say there is no meaningful repurcussions. Protect yourself with diversification into the king of liquid tangible assets -- gold. Call Centennial today for assistance. They welcome your toll free call and inquiry. 1-800-869-5115

R.

TownCrier

(04/30/2003; 13:14:17 MDT - Msg ID: 102150)

Were you a contest winner? See below...

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlCongratulations to the six gold and silver winners. Contact marie@usagold.com as directed in the url above to confirm your postal mailing address so that your metal arrives at the proper destination.

Thanks, and thanks again!

R.

Black Blade

(04/30/2003; 13:52:30 MDT - Msg ID: 102151)

Dollar Falls to Four-Year Low Against Euro on Economy Outlook

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=amDNT6wNesF8&refer=top_world_news
Snippit:

New York, April 30 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to its lowest level against the euro in more than four years after an industry report showed Chicago-area manufacturing contracted and as traders speculated the U.S. economy shed jobs this month. Anemic growth, a rising current account deficit and low interest rates may drive the dollar to extend a 19 percent drop against the euro over the past year, analysts said. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress that ``lingering business caution'' may impede the economy's expansion. Prospects for slow growth ``would be consistent with people positioning for a higher euro,'' said Richard Franulovich, a currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. ``The U.S. needs roughly $40 billion per month'' to offset its current account deficit and maintain the dollar's value. This will be difficult to achieve ``given how low interest rates are,'' he said.

Black Blade: There is no incentive to invest in low yielding dollar investments and foreign dollars will go elsewhere. On the bright side, it helps domestic manufacturing with exports and makes foreign goods more expensive and that could shave the trade imbalance. Of course this is a plus for gold priced in dollars.

Black Blade

(04/30/2003; 14:16:09 MDT - Msg ID: 102152)

The Economy and National Security (The Currency Bomb)

http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=6669.topic
Snippits:

Capturing 25% of the world's oil from a lunatic despot is certainly in the interests of the United States' National Security. The US is the world's largest oil user. Without oil, the US economy would stop dead in its tracks. Moreover, America is the world's largest debtor. If the US is to maintain the dollar as the world's reserve currency, having access to oil to back the dollar will keep the world continuing to use the dollar to settle accounts, even if the dollar's role as a rock solid store of value is being threatened by trade deficits and a Federal Reserve easy money policy. Therefore, backing the all-mighty dollar by cheap oil paid for with a lot of bombs, and a little blood, is actually sound economic policy for the US.

Alan gets to keep his job; besides, he is a party animal. There is the old stock market adage, "Money makes the mare go". Moreover, liquidity can make bad loans look good, while making them bigger! The Fed will be printing more money, a lot more money, and will encourage "risk taking" with your money. They will encourage you to overpay for things by printing up, out of thin air, hundreds of billions of dollars in "Real Money" and Trillions more in credit that can be used to buy real things like stocks, junk bonds, and real estate - as long as it is mortgaged to the hilt. The "Greenspan Put" is back! The Fed will aggressively try to keep all asset bubbles propped up: especially the stock market and housing.

The Fed will try to get inflation and top line revenue going. Inflation is the only way that all the past bad debt can be serviced. To get inflation going and stop the bleeding in manufacturing employment, the Fed and the Treasury will have to "let the dollar go". Dropping the value of the dollar helps firms raise prices in the US, and bring back more corporate earnings from overseas. A falling dollar makes imports more expensive and helps get prices up and rising. Expect the Fed will drop the currency bomb. It's the MOAB of Monetary Policy, and it has to be done.

Black Blade: An interesting article in spite of the "dark humor". Reading between the lines (and the lines themselves) paint a "grim" picture. This is close to what we should expect though. I await more "grim" economic data over the next few days to help drive the USD lower. The "Gold Insiders" have a good idea of what is happening and that is why they have been frantically unwinding hedges and some even buying gold at the same time. I may even touch on this in more detail later as more info comes to light (besides, I am not sure if it is exactly publicly released yet). It looks to get "interesting".

Black Blade

(04/30/2003; 14:36:07 MDT - Msg ID: 102153)

Bleak outlook for Japanese economy

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2987509.stm
Snippit:

Japan's economy continues to be hit by a vicious circle of lower wages and weaker spending, according to government figures. The average monthly wage fell 2.1% in March from a year earlier, the steepest drop in 11 years, the government said on Wednesday. At the same time, official industrial output figures revealed a disappointing fall of 0.2% in March, as exports suffered. The Bank of Japan said it would ease monetary policy to try and support the weak economy as it voted to raise the level of reserves available to banks for lending.

A poll conducted in mid-April by the Asahi newspaper and published on Wednesday also showed businesses had a grim outlook for the future. Of the 100 companies surveyed, 73 said they believed the economy was at a standstill. A further 20 thought it was "deteriorating gradually", while five said it was getting worse. "Hopes for an export-led recovery are fading because of persisting concern over slumping personal consumption and corporate capital investment, as well as uncertainty over the future of the US economy," said the daily newspaper.

Black Blade: "Grim" is the word for Japan. Economic conditions are worsening all right. The rumor is that the government buying of bank held stocks isn't helping much and talk of nationalization is resurfacing again. The nation's insolvent banking sector is on the verge of collapse and only held up by massive infusion of funds from the BOJ under direction of the MOF. The disastrous waste of capital in an unsuccessful effort to prop up the US dollar is beginning to show as the Yen has become essentially worthless even as wages fall and unemployment rises. The country is about to sink into a deeper depression. Meanwhile, it is said that gold buying is strong as worried Japanese frantically scramble to preserve their dwindling wealth. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade

(04/30/2003; 14:50:47 MDT - Msg ID: 102154)

China shuts stock markets amid SARS

http://money.cnn.com/2003/04/29/news/international/china_markets.reut/index.htm
Snippit:

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China said Tuesday it will shut down trade in its $520 billion stock markets for more than a week from May 1, in a move that analysts said was intended to intensify a war against SARS and relieve bearish sentiment. The closure promised to ease some of the unrelenting pessimism that slashed nearly eight percent off markets last week, analysts said. Fears about the effect of an outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on economic growth have hit China's stock markets hard.

Black Blade: Some had speculated that Sars fears would dampen demand for gold in China. However, it appears that this could actually increase demand in an already very strong physical market. With the market shut down this leaves open the physical gold sector as fears spread. Gold is in a primary bull market and as stocks slip on more market uncertainty it is reasonable to assume that gold purchases will only increase. In fact it appears that gold buying is stronger throughout the region as the global economy slips into a widening depression. Sars fears only serves to drive buyers to accumulate precious metals (at least until the epidemic blows over � if it does).

Waverider

(04/30/2003; 15:05:59 MDT - Msg ID: 102155)

DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlSnip:
"Many analysts expect the dollar to fall much further against the Euro in the coming weeks and some speculate that the dollar remains overvalued by as much as 20%. Gold also got a boost as the weaker dollar spurred short covering and buying by funds. Recently the major mega-hedgers in the gold producer sector including Barrick, AngloGold, and Placer Dome have unwound forward sales positions and announced that they would unwind hedgebooks further. This is an obvious sign of optimism about the future gold price from an insider perspective."

Waverider: "Colorful" DMR Black Blade as I have my lunch, hmmm...

Black Blade

(04/30/2003; 15:06:11 MDT - Msg ID: 102156)

Rally Over - Postwar Boost Ends as Consumer Confidence Falls Sharply

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/US/abcmoneypoll030430.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, April 30 � A month-long surge in consumer confidence ended with a sharp snap this week, putting a quick and unceremonious end to hopes of a sustained rally. But it shouldn't be a surprise: Confidence followed almost exactly the same course after the 1991 Gulf War. Giving up a third of its postwar gains, the ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index fell a steep four points this week to -19 on its scale of +100 to -100. Propelled by the war in Iraq, the index had jumped a remarkable 13 points in four weeks, last week reaching its best level in seven months.

Black Blade: Quite a contrast to yesterday's release of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence gauge. It appears that the euphoria over the Iraq War victory is giving way to economic reality. Unemployment is rising, corporate earnings are falling (at least the "real" earnings � not the "pro forma" kind), current account and budget deficits are soaring leading to a much weaker dollar, consumer spending is trailing off, etc. Greenspan's testimony before the House of Representatives Finance Committee today was�.shall we say less than inspiring?

Liberty Head

(04/30/2003; 15:15:00 MDT - Msg ID: 102157)

Hear The Train A Commin'

Clang Clang Clang Hooooooonk Clang Clang Clang Hooooooonk

The bigger the train, the harder they wreck.

Reduced federal spending is the one honest option to stop our runaway train of federal debt before it wrecks.

If there ever was a sure thing, betting that our government won't cut back total spending has got to be it.

Owning gold is a good way to place that bet.

Staying off the train of debt is a good way to survive the wreck.

Clang Clang Clang Hooooooonk Clang Clang Clang Hooooooonk

John the Jute

(04/30/2003; 15:15:21 MDT - Msg ID: 102158)

Thank you, everyone ...

... thank you for the generous welcome you all gave to me when I emerged from the shadows recently, and thank you for the honorable mention in the essay contest. I rather enjoy writing whimsy, and I hoped that the Dorothy and Toto fable might entertain the Folk of the Forum, but I never expected more: I knew that I was wa-ay off subject (on the other side of the Deadly Desert on which Queen Lurline put a spell to protect her favorite realm).

In response to a few questions: I had no idea that I was making my maiden append on the eve of St George's Day. I wish I could say I planned it, but it wouldn't be true. It was Wild Hare's intelligence and imagination that made the connection, not mine. And I really am a Jute ... in the limited sense that my paternal line goes back to the Jutish Kingdom of Kent, from which I have inherited my surname and, I hope, my Y chromosome. And I really have never watched the film version of The Wonderful Wizard of Oz.

There were some other points that the Folk of the Forum made to which I would like to respond sometime. But to-day is a time for saying thank you.

Thank you all.

CoBra(too)

(04/30/2003; 15:19:53 MDT - Msg ID: 102159)

@ BB . The Currency Bomb!

Sir BB,
or rather, no Sir, it's not funny any longer.

The US is heading straight for a japanese style asset deflation. The only distinguishing fact being - the private japanese was a saver, while the US consumer - did what a consumer does - spend and consume on credit - piling up debt.

The US deficit spending gambit has vastly overstretched any potential super power alliances and can't really make Another move.
... BTW - Rumsfeld stated to rethink the stationing of US troops - Germany may, after all be rid of the occupation force - after almost 50 years in the East of Germany and now, wow! even in West Germany - deserted by friend and foe, what do you know? ... Good riddance in all cases ... as even the Iraqui's are a bit reluctant to cheer their liberators - as they get shot in the process.

Meanwhile the Dollar tanks, the SM's go nowhere and I shouldn't say - Gold was up! Though, I'll state Gold is in an early bull market - as it will recover its age old function of a barometer of real value - vis a vis the scheming and defrauding of fiat paper, underwritten by the IMF, WB and now the BIS.

A super power on pa(u)per legs - won't outlast even its name - ... and as a formerly pro US european I find the admin of neo-cons in power an atrocity - or better a throw back to the dark ages. To be fair, even GWBII deserved better - though, what do I know?

Except acquiring more gold ... even as my curency appreciated 20 plus % ... The more so! cb2

PS: It's the Debt Bomb - forget the currency ... debt will always haunt you - even in case you'll never intend to pay -then you'll be considered a paria for any "credit" and its rating.

Black Blade

(04/30/2003; 15:22:13 MDT - Msg ID: 102160)

Waverider

I talked to a couple of upper mid-level people I know and in casual conversation it came up that at least one gold producer (other than Goldcorp) is buying physical in the market. I wish I could identify the company but I will respect their wishes (damn!). I have been struggling with this but I am not at liberty to say anything definitive yet. Maybe Rob McEwen of Goldcorp has started a trend � who knows. I am not sure if this is to cover a gold position or if it is positioning ahead an expected higher POG though. However, there are some major changes coming on the producer side that appear very positive for the precious metals market. Maybe when next quarter's earnings reports come out we may see this reflected in their balance sheet. Could be rather "interesting".

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(04/30/2003; 15:46:51 MDT - Msg ID: 102161)

Cobra2

I generally agree. The "humor" I referred to was of the "dark" variety and perhaps was more of the way it was presented in the article. But you are right. The real problem is the "debt bomb" that is slowing exploding. Japanese were (are?) notorious for being aggressive savers. They now see their savings losing value as the government appears determined to destroy the Yen at any cost. The Japanese citizenry are just "collateral damage". No wonder then that some in increasing numbers are buying gold instead of piling more devaluing Yen into insolvent banks that pay no interest. It's a "no-brainer". Americans on the other hand are generally a gullible and trusting lot. They are ill prepared for a severe economic shock. Unfortunately they are now caught in the "bear trap" with little in savings to pull them through. But again it is playing out much like Japan as US banks are paying nothing in interest � that is after inflation, Americans are actually losing money. Some are buying real estate but that could be yet another bear trap when that bubble implodes and bonds are yet another bubble that could soon implode. That leaves few alternatives � gold and silver being the few left with wealth preservation capabilities and more upside potential than downside risk. I could go into "real" rates, etc. But I probably beat that subject pretty hard by now.

As far as US troops on Euro soil, it is a left over from the cold war and probably will continue for a while yet as there are some NATO agreements and at least a small presence allows for a "way station" of sorts for the US military. For example the recent action in Iraq was easier with closer military support stored in Europe. Eventually I suspect that the US military presence will be much reduced but then again the surrounding communities tend to support US bases due to the local economic support. I don't know how it will all play out in the end but I suspect that Euroland will either accept the US military presence or have to come to a more unified EU political arrangement and a resulting EU military. But I just don't know. I am still surprised at the initial success of the Euro given the diverse political structures and cultures of the EU. But surprise is what makes life so "entertaining".

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Goldilox

(04/30/2003; 15:52:23 MDT - Msg ID: 102162)

#102133

@Dollar Bill

Since a very large proportion of $ held in overseas banks are strictly electronic, the likelihood of 25% being counterfeit is small. I do not have any reliable figures to support this, but I have had many knowledgeable people tell me that a huge proportion of the money supply has never really been printed, and exists only in the banks' data bases.

Aristotle

(04/30/2003; 15:59:24 MDT - Msg ID: 102163)

Gold price doesn't behave as a quantum anti-dollar

Thanks bunches, Miner49er-man!!! for the elaboration to say artfully and especially succinctly what I had in mind but didn't have the talent to make an attempted delivery on my part worth trying.

Thank goodness you're standing in a prime spot with a nice loud voice. Here comes the echo so I'll pause to enjoy it for a second time:

= = = =
"There cannot be a mathematically calculable correlation between two items that do not have either an enforced ratio, or some inherent commonality. If gold is moving freely, then market forces will prevent any mathematically predictable correlation. If gold is managed, then the correlation is artificial, and subject to the changes in politics, and forced changes by periodic incursions from pent up market power."
= = = =

Lot's of other pearls were in your comments, too. We're in agreement. We can generally say (over the mid/long term) that as the dollar gets smaller, Gold prices get larger, but that's about as precise as we dare make it. There's that pesky human variable that defies the rigid equation.

Thus, outside of locked-in correlations, people should try more basically to simply understand the nature of Gold value based on its waxing security usage, especially in light of a waning international dollar reserve system. Understand that, and the game is yours in hand. You obviously do, and this (graphically) is the sound of my applause:
>#< >#< >#< >#< >#< >#< !!!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Black Blade

(04/30/2003; 16:04:28 MDT - Msg ID: 102164)

Corner Rats and the PPT

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/hultberg/2003/0430.htm
Snippit:

Bill King of the highly regarded King Report in New York tells us that the PPT sprang from an analysis written and presented by former Fed Governor Robert Heller in 1989. After his paper was published is when the PPT agenda was formalized.

King refers to his associate John Crudele's writing on the subject of how the stock market was to be rigged. "Heller had just left the Fed when he gave a speech suggesting that the central bank should step in and take direct action to keep the stock market from collapsing. The Fed had taken action before. It made sure there was enough liquidity during the crash of '87 to keep the system going. It may have even strong-armed a few banks into propping up the market. And it has often lowered interest rates at opportune times.

"But Heller's idea was different. He wanted a more direct approach, especially when the bond and currency markets were becoming uncontrollable [like they are these days]. Heller believed that in an emergency, the Fed should start buying stock index futures contracts until it managed to pull stocks out of their nosedive. Essentially, whenever there is heavy buying of these futures contracts it causes the underlying stock market to rise. The futures contracts can be bought cheaply; they are highly leveraged so you can get more bang for your buck, and they eliminate the need for a rigger to purchase, say, all 30 stocks that make up the Dow. Heller explained that the process was simple. And it is. The trouble is, the government never has had authority to rig the stock market." [email from Bill King, March 11, 2003]

King, who at the time was running several equity trading desks in New York, goes on to say that it was during Q1 of 1990, as the Japan bubble was bursting, that massive S&P futures buying began to be used extensively by the trusted agents of the PPT, big 'name' brokers in New York. During the crises of the late 90's, this massive buying increased even more. By this time, many skeptics of such manipulation in the investment advisory business began to realize it was definitely taking place.

Black Blade: A nice little run down on the Working Group on Financial Markets. There is precedent for the PPT going back to 1907 when John Pierpont Morgan did something similar to stave off the financial panic that year. This time it is led by deep pockets with encouragement from the US government. I don't think that the existence of the "Working Group" should be in dispute but the debate should be whether market forces will overwhelm the abilities and willingness of participants to "manage" the markets.

CoBra(too)

(04/30/2003; 16:25:28 MDT - Msg ID: 102165)

Blair vs Putin -

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,946321,00.htmlIt's kind of funny - who wouldn't want to believe Tony? -
... If it wouldn't sound so phony I would!
Though, as it seems Vladimir has the more fundamental reasons acceptable.

Meantime, some EU 4 try their out their own startegy to (re-) build some strategic power - Not against NATO, of course -so pro EU defense - ha - HA - anyway, some guys over here are having a bit of too much of USA, anyway to swallow!

Leave the Bullies to ice-hockey, as I'm fond of the canadian exploration plays - next to GOLD!

cb2

PS- Thanks BB - you've humored me ;) - and no kidding, you're an exceptional guy - thanks again for all the great and hard work you're doing - most appreciated.

Tacitus

(04/30/2003; 16:27:10 MDT - Msg ID: 102166)

Why did they close the Gold Mutual Fund?

Dear 21mabry,

In response to your #102024 posting...

That is a good question. Why did Mr. Bogle's (although he doesn't control it anymore) Vanguard group close the gold fund?

In his book, he warns about hot mutual funds. One of the things he doesn't like is that some mutual fund companies keep taking new investors even when it compromises its future preformance. The problem is that when a fund manager has too much money he can't maneuver well enough to maintain his high performance, all other things being equal.

Therefore, Mr. Bogle suggests, and I am glad the Vanguard Group seems to follow this, that funds be closed before they take in so much money that they can't operate as well anymore.

Thus it is out of integrity that it was closed. Anymore money coming into it and they wouldn't have been able to buy enough good gold mining companies etc. They would have been forced to buy less than good companies just to invest the money.

Something to think about. There actually are some good people out there watching out for the investor's concerns.

Salve,
Tacitus

Goldilox

(04/30/2003; 16:37:09 MDT - Msg ID: 102167)

POG vs. $Index (vs. POO)

A graph is by its very nature is a representation of a mathematical relationship, so it is incorrect to say there is no mathematical relationship between any two entities. What I believe you are trying to say is that there is no predictable relationship between POG and $Index.

I was actually more impressed by the relationship between POG vs. POO that someone propounded in the last couple of days. It seems to me that this relationship is more relavent, given the potential for political power of these two commodities. Measuring FIAT against POG seems less interesting to me for any reason beyond price prediction, and CNBC has taught us how reliable that science is.

Goldilox

(04/30/2003; 16:50:57 MDT - Msg ID: 102168)

POG vs. POO

My last post begs another question, the probing of which might unearth some interesting facts/ideas/opinions.

Is there a battle for supremacy between POG and POO that rivals the FIAT battle between $/? indexes, and which battle is more important?

Goldilox

(04/30/2003; 16:51:57 MDT - Msg ID: 102169)

correction

My ASCII is not transferring correctly. I meant dollar vs. Euro.

R Powell

(04/30/2003; 16:57:27 MDT - Msg ID: 102170)

CPM Surveys

http://www.cpmgroup.com/SSRelease2003.pdf CPM Group has just released both the 2003 Gold Survey and the 2003 Silver Survey. They are priced at $150/each. The link above is in pdf and leads to the CPM Group press release that accompanied the fanfare of the annual surveys presentation. I was somewhat disappointed with last year's (2002) Survey, not for the material presented, but for the format in which it was presented. Hopefully, this year's will be easier to distill into factual information.

The info from the link prints out on three pages. The last of these is three charts (nice colors). One of these is "Silver Supply and Demand Balance" from 1960 through (projected numbers) 2003.

The critical numbers for 2002 include
Demand 784.8 million ounces
Supply 723.5
Deficit 61.3 million ounces

This is about half of the what was projected (120 million ounces) for year 2002. That projection from last year's Survey was based (and so stated) on another projected view of 2002, that being an improving economy. I find it humorous that the contributing authors of these surveys are more than happy to accept Wall Street's rosy views of imminent (next quarter, really!) economic recovery and base their number guesstimates accordingly.

Anyway, demand, mine production and total use were all down with total use still (61.3 million ounces) greater than supply. Imho, the basic question remains....How much is left in that pile that we've been drawing from for the last thirteen years. If there is still enough to fill the supply/demand deficit for years to come, then nothing changes. But, if that never ending supply pile should ever threaten to run out... well, that's a horse of another color. I may attempt to work some figures to express that existing supply pile as a percentage of yearly use and backtrack for a few years to see how this percentage is shrinking. This leftover supply expressed as a percentage of yearly use is a common formula used to predict prices. The percentage number is compared to similar numbers from previous years. This is only one factor in price determination but even a crude quess is somewhat better than flipping a coin. I believe the yearly supply/demand deficit with gold is even greater (percentagewise) than silver. Perhaps someone will spring the one-fifty (plus five for shipping and handling) and then share whatever insights that survey may offer. I'll be ordering the silver survey and will report anything worth knowing. We should also be getting bits and pieces from both surveys from various analysts soon.

Congrats to the contest winners!
Rich

Cavan Man

(04/30/2003; 17:10:44 MDT - Msg ID: 102171)

21mabry

Psychophantitis is contagious. Don't pass it on.

Goldendome

(04/30/2003; 17:34:26 MDT - Msg ID: 102172)

Thankyou USA GOLD

I was at once: Thrilled, pleased, humbled, and honored, for the award bestowed upon me in the recent Gold Essay contest. The essay was from the heart. Sir MK�S question had been simple enough, and yet provocative. For me, writing is not the easiest. A couple of days were spent thinking about the question and collating the reasons that I, as well as many of you, continue to believe in and to accumulate Gold even when it yo-yo's against us. Then, there were a couple of days spent writing, re-writing, and yes, then re-writing again, until the short few sentences stated clearly and succinctly the answer that I felt, and was comfortable with. Only then did I feel that the essay was worthy of entry.

I thank Sir MK and all those at USA Gold � Centennial Precious Metals for making this forum available. The many diverse thoughts, opinions, and knowledge shared are definitely an asset to us all. When our thoughts turn dark or we may begin to question our path, it is reassuring to be able to access the thought streams of those with the courage to fortify our flagging strength, and to renew our sagging spirits.

My finest regards,

------Goldendome

Goldilox

(04/30/2003; 17:38:50 MDT - Msg ID: 102173)

Onward and upward

FEE FEE FI FI FO FO FUM,
Look out ($)340, 'cause here we come.

Oh Oh Oh Oh Oh Get Ready, Get Ready!

R Powell

(04/30/2003; 17:42:32 MDT - Msg ID: 102174)

BIS news

These appear to be in pdf form

************************************************************************
Your current news on phrase "gold(any word)" at a glance:
************************************************************************

2 new document(s) found since 31.03.2003:

1. Basel II - Third Consultative Package, Pillar One (29 April 2003) (28.04.2003 16:28)
Part Two (The First Pillar - Minimum Capital Requirements) of the Third Consultative Package published by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
http://www.bis.org/bcbs/cp3part2.pdf (PDF, 749194 bytes)

..due to deterioration in a borrower's creditworthiness, will receive a 0% CCF.25 24 However, at national discretion, gold bullion held in own vaults or on an allocated basis to the extent backed by bullion liabilities can be treated...

2. Basel II - Third Consultative Package, Annexes (29 April 2003) (28.04.2003 16:53)
Annexes 1-9 of the Third Consultative Package published by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
http://www.bis.org/bcbs/cp3annex.pdf (PDF, 224906 bytes)

..banks are to apply the lower of the two applicable credit conversion factors. 165 However, at national discretion, gold bullion held in own vaults or on an allocated basis to the extent backed by bullion liabilities can be treated...

TownCrier

(04/30/2003; 18:03:40 MDT - Msg ID: 102175)

R Powell, as you wish, here are some gold and silver "bits and pieces"

My summary of figures is extracted from the following two Reuters reports.

Silver article--
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030429/minerals_silver_survey_2.html
Gold article--
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030429/minerals_gold_survey_2.html

Gold began the year near $278 and ended near $350. =Gold up 26%
Silver started at $4.53 and ended at $4.81. = Silver up 6%

The survey found that rising gold prices in 2002 led to 35-year highs in investment demand while cutting into fabrication usage. I would addtionally tend to think that the weak economy, not just higher prices, contributed also to the fallback in industrial/fabrication usage demand for gold.

Meanwhile, the weak international economy was cited by the study report for cutting into silver's industrial demand; and unlike gold, silver investors were net dishoarders of the white metal over the year.

__The Yellow__

Investors bought 26.9 million ounces of gold bullion in 2002, an increase by nearly 17 million ounces over bullion investment demand the previous year.

This more than compensated for the 11.5 million ounce decline in gold's industrial usage demand which stood at 91.5 million ounces.

New gold mining for 2002 was cited at 63.1 million ounces, down 3.6 million ounces from 2001, with 2003 mine production estimated to fall further to 61.7 million ounces.

__The White__

Investors were net sellers of silver, dishoarding nearly 61.3 million ounces, selling into the market not quite as much as the 65.8 million sold the previous year.

Silver investors may find a little room to cheer themselves somewhat in the following citation from the report, "Sales from government stockpiles fell also as the flow of silver from the U.S. Defense National Stockpile Center ceased after those inventories were depleted".

Industrial/fabrication demand usage at 784.8 million ounces was down 25.9 million ounces from the previous year.

New silver mining for 2002 was listed at 495.7 million ounces, down 5.5 million ounces from 2001, with 2003 mine supply projected to rise slightly to 504 million ounces.

Again, out of all of the figures given above, I find it extremely telling that rising global gold investment demand, among the seemingly "few and far between" unsung gold investors of the world, more than took up the slack of softer fabrication usage demand occuring for gold due to the soft economy and higher metal prices.

R.

mikal

(04/30/2003; 18:31:02 MDT - Msg ID: 102176)

@Goldilox

Re: "Here I come." I recognize the lyrics to an "Oldie but goodie." The band escapes me. Was it the Spinners?
Be that as it may, let's get past $340.00 first, then we'll talk about the $3400.00. ;)
P.S. Are you the "Goldilocks" posting next door?

silvercollector

(04/30/2003; 18:38:59 MDT - Msg ID: 102177)

miner49er/Ari/Belgium

Gentlemen,

I'm going to have another look at this linear/non-linear POG/dollar index ratio debate from the point of view as 'devil's advocate'.

Please stay tuned.

TIA

P.S. to Belgium: You mentioned the dollar index back to '86, INO only goes back a couple years. How does one get this infomation?

mikal

(04/30/2003; 19:00:40 MDT - Msg ID: 102178)

@Miner49er

Re: msg#102141
Very cogent and original. Thank you.
Re: "Will that market wisdom, which I just said was safe to assume, be permitted to satisfy itself with both free purchases of gold, and an unleashed gold price?"
The "market wisdom" will see to continuing major changes, that's for sure. "Unleashed", though restricted by terrain, harrassment and the need to rest, Spot and the Gold Bull will not permit "the tail to wag the dog". Instead, the gold market must express its natural energy with much greater freedom than before, so much, that any attempt to disallow "free purchases of gold" anywhere in the developed world, will backfire, rebounding POG higher still, encouraging greater noncompliance. Little support for such a policy exists.

21mabry

(04/30/2003; 19:42:11 MDT - Msg ID: 102179)

(No Subject)

Caveman what do I have is it deadly.Sometimes on the forum we get figures for jewlry sales.Which is fine with me gold jewlry is attractive,but there are gold advocates who claim jewlry sales are not what we need.These advocates would like gold viewed as a store of wealth or viewed in its historic monetary role.Are chains and rings of gold harmful to golds rightful role as a monetary means of exchange and storehouse of value.21

21mabry

(04/30/2003; 19:46:37 MDT - Msg ID: 102180)

Vanguard

Thnx Tact.for the info on vanguard. Can they buy gold bullion in that fund? THNX 21

Tacitus

(04/30/2003; 21:07:00 MDT - Msg ID: 102181)

Sorry, Just stocks

dear 21Mabry,

Sorry, only stocks in gold mining companies and perhaps related businesses. For the real think you have to buy from Mr. Kosares.

salve,
Tacitus

Cytek

(04/30/2003; 21:30:20 MDT - Msg ID: 102182)

Question for the Board

I have been on vacation for two weeks and notice that now Sir Sector has made his last post.
Ok. Who pissed him off.
WOW, we just lost a wealth of knowledge.
I have been reading this site since 99' and have seen alot of good posters come and then go because someone takes a simple discussion to the limit.That's what this is a discussion forum and that's it. But some of you just have to make your point stick and then whoops another ones gone.

So who's next MK, ..... and then there won't be a disussion forum.

Cytek
I'm going to keep my eye out for Sector, he's out there somewhere posting his thoughts.

Sundeck

(04/30/2003; 21:45:11 MDT - Msg ID: 102183)

USD/POG Relationship

Silvercollector/Miner/Ari/Belgian,

I reproduce a post of mine from back in March when Waverider and others were discussing this subject.

The linear fit to the scatter plot mentioned below is for the last couple of years (from data on INO). One can fit lines to similar scatter plots compiled for earlier periods, but the slopes are different indicating different "apparent" relationships between USDX and POG over those times. Many factors are involved and the scatter about the line of best fit is usually quite large. At present with the USDX at 97.2 and the POG at $339 the POG is about $20 less than it should be according to the linear relationship given below. This discrepancy has persisted now for several weeks.

Many factors are involved. Ari mentioned currency arbitrage. A major factor also would be the level of intervention (gold entering the market from reserves through leasing and sales, not to mention the papergold games that can be played). Psychology (e.g. herd mentality) is also a major factor in POG variations.

Clearly, if gold represents a "fixed standard of value", then the "strength" of any fiat currency will generally have an inverse relationship with the POG...the $US is no different.

As stressed in my original post, there is no physical underpinning of the linear relationship given...it is just an empirical fit to the data since 2001.

:-)

Cheers

Sundeck

"...
Sundeck (3/7/03; 04:26:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 99052)

Waverider #99046 - US dollar and POG
Lady Waverider,

Hour-to-hour and day-to-day correlation between POG and USDX is low, as you have observed. Some days there are roughly coincident shifts that are very suggestive, but there are too many things going on to get a very good correlation in the short term.

Suggest instead you do a simple scatter plot of POG and USDX for the last couple of years (INO show data back to June 01). No need to be fancy, just take a dozen or so weekly averages at different points along the curves so that the whole variation in POG (260 to 380) and USDX (120 to 98) is well represented in your scatter plot. There is a quite good linear relationship described by:

P = -4.35 x D + 782

where D is the USDX and P is the price of gold in US dollars.

You can check. At the moment I write this the USDX is 98, so evaluating the equation gives you P = 356, so we are roughly on track.

You may get wild excursions from this rule for up to several days (like back at the beginning of Feb), but over time the equation is good.

Please note, however, that this is an "empirical" formula deduced by fitting a straight line to the data over the last couple of years. There are no obvious underlying fundamental reasons leading to this equation, and there is no guarantee that it will hold in the future, so caveat emptor - "let the buyer beware"!

:-)

Sundeck

..."

Gandalf the White

(04/30/2003; 21:53:24 MDT - Msg ID: 102184)

Lady Waverider -- REMEMBER that CHARTING lesson ?

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[h,a]dahlyymy[pc10!c50!c200][vc60][iLh14,3!La12,26,9Please take ANOTHER look now at the above LINK !
AND then think about "two month" windows ---
WHAT DO YOU SEE NOW ?
<;-)

The Invisible Hand

(04/30/2003; 23:40:36 MDT - Msg ID: 102185)

Answer to the Board

On heresy Cytek,

I may be the one who "pissed off" sector.

I criticised in:
The Invisible Hand (04/22/03; 18:43:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101727)
No Proof
an article by James Turk.

Part of my argument was:
Turk alleges to have found evidence that 7,000 tonnes have been sold by the US and UK CB's. Monkey see, monkey do, so the European CB's have also sold 8,000 tonnes. Why would European CBs sell their gold for the (once) almighty dollar? In order to destroy the euro? Ah, but Turk's thesis is part of the one percent of non-speculative analysis that stubbornly refuses to take the euro into account.

This made sector angry. His reply to this was that the sales by the European CBs appear from some documents. This does however not answer to my criticism of Turk.

I went on:
As indicated , Turk says that he thereby confirms the conclusions of Veneroso and Howe. Veneroso would come to his conclusions through a supply and demand perspective, Howe through an analysis of the derivative activities of banks.
Now if you read Howe's latest commentary at
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary24.html#anchor207796
you will read that, and I quote.
"Assuming a total short physical position in the range of 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes as most recently discussed in �"
and
"Relative to a total short physical position of 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes, 6000 to 8000 tonnes from the euro area does not appear unreasonable."
Sorry, if I read Another and Trail Guide, I cannot follow this assumption which seems very unreasonable indeed.

Howe's assumption like Turk was that the Europeans just do the same as the Fed and Bank of England.

Sector then reiterated merely his contention that the European sales appear from documents, thus again contradicting Turk and Howe.

I don't mind that sector contradicted Turn and Howe and didn't reply to my critique.

What I did mind however was him qualifying me as a quack in sector (04/23/03; 20:10:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 101778) Hence my,

" The Invisible Hand (04/23/03; 21:06:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 101784) followed by two or three others.
Gold Quacks
Sector:
If I am gold quack paid by the anti-gold faction,
show me where my analysis of Turk's paper in
The Invisible Hand (04/22/03; 18:43:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 101727)
No Proof
was wrong.
If you can't (and I don't even raise the question of the proof that I'm paid), the question arises who is the quack and who gets paid for that? Are you a GATA free-lancer",

to which nobody has replied yet. Ah but, that's not necessary because, as the only defender of gold, GATA holds the ultimate and only truth. May the heretics be damned.

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